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Tropical Storms Ingrid and Manuel: Extreme Rainfall Threats for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on September 14, 2013

Extremely dangerous Tropical Storm Ingrid is near hurricane strength as it heads northwards over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Ingrid is embedded in a very moist environment, making it the most dangerous Atlantic Tropical Cyclone of 2013 thus far, due to its rainfall potential. The storm is already bringing sporadic heavy rains to the Eastern Mexican coast near Tampico, but the storm's heaviest rains remain offshore, as seen on Mexican radar. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is steadily growing in size, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms have cold cloud tops that reach high into the atmosphere. The Hurricane Hunters found 70 mph surface winds in Ingrid Saturday morning. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is interfering with development, but ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F).


Figure 1. Percent chance of receiving more than 8" of rain during a five day period, from the Saturday 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model for Tropical Storm Ingrid. More than 8" of rain are predicted for large swaths of Mexico, due, in part, to the effects of Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that Ingrid's current northerly motion will be short-lived, as a ridge of high pressure builds in to its north and forces the storm nearly due west into Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping some of its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand,. Additional heavy rains affected the region early this week, leading to flash flooding and multiple landslides, including one massive landslide in the town of Manzanatitla on Monday that killed eight people. It won't take much rain to generate a catastrophic flood disaster, and 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", are expected.


Figure 2. Twin scourges assault Mexico: Hurricane Ingrid in the Atlantic and Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific, at 3:47 pm CDT September 14, 2013.

At the same time that Ingrid is making landfall, Tropical Storm Manuel will be bringing similar rainfall amounts to the other side of Mexico. This morning's 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model predicted that a large area of Mexico is at high risk of 8+ inches of rain due to the combined effects of Ingrid and Manuel. The greatest danger is on the Pacific side in Oaxaca State, where the combined effects of the circulations of the two storms will pull a flow of very moist air upwards over the mountains, creating torrential rains. The Mexican Weather Service has already received a report of about 8 inches of rain in eastern Mexican state of Oaxaca due to Manuel's rains. The massive rains that will fall in Mexico from this one-two punch of extremely wet tropical storms will cause an extremely dangerous and expensive flood disaster in Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. VR46L
LSU IR imagery

Click on Image to see Loop!

Quoting 1434. Astrometeor:
Spot the hail reports and see if you still have good vision!





Good night to you too Kori, <3
Florida, Utah, and the CO-KS border.
On September 27, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release part of their fifth assessment report on climate change. For the first time since 1990, this report will scale back the hysteria on global warming.

Matt Ridley at The Wall Street Journal viewed a few leaks from the 31-page document and talked to one of the senior climate scientists. The temperature rise due to man-made carbon dioxide is lower than their prediction in 2007. Originally a three degrees Celsius increase was predicted, but that number is now expected to be between 1-2.5 degrees Celsius.

Specifically, the draft report says that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" (ECS)—eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur—is "extremely likely" to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), "likely" to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and "very likely" to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was "likely" to be above 2 degrees Celsius and "very likely" to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since "extremely" and "very" have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.

Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.

Ridley pointed out that many papers in the last year have come to this same conclusion. Scientists at the University of Illinois and Oslo University in Norway found the ECS levels would be lower than the models showed. Three papers followed, including one produced by 14 lead authors of the IPCC report, that backed the evidence. Francis Zwiers and others at the university of Victoria, British Columbia found that global warming was overestimated by 100% over 20 years.
MORNING

This has been the season for Mexico and the cape verdes. Ingrid is about to lash Mexico, while a strong disturbance east of the CV islands should affect them in the next couple of days.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HUMBERTO...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES...HAS REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
Humberto is almost back!
IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
1508. VR46L
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...CENTER OF MANUEL VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 103.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
1510. pcola57
Quoting 1508. VR46L:


Good Morning VR46L..
By observing the looped image in the post, I see a new wave also approaching the lower lats near the Leewards..
Interesting..
I hadn't noticed it before..
Thanks!!
new feelgood forecast. no landfall just spinning in the boc till she falls apart


Humberto looks kinda awful right now, with convection only to the north and east of the center (which I think is near 26.4N 40.2W, is it not?), but the center is well-defined considering it is under moderate shear (15 ~ 25 kt).
Quoting 1503. trunkmonkey:
On September 27, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release part of their fifth assessment report on climate change. For the first time since 1990, this report will scale back the hysteria on global warming.

Matt Ridley at The Wall Street Journal viewed a few leaks from the 31-page document and talked to one of the senior climate scientists. The temperature rise due to man-made carbon dioxide is lower than their prediction in 2007. Originally a three degrees Celsius increase was predicted, but that number is now expected to be between 1-2.5 degrees Celsius.

Specifically, the draft report says that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" (ECS)—eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur—is "extremely likely" to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), "likely" to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and "very likely" to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was "likely" to be above 2 degrees Celsius and "very likely" to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since "extremely" and "very" have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.

Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.

Ridley pointed out that many papers in the last year have come to this same conclusion. Scientists at the University of Illinois and Oslo University in Norway found the ECS levels would be lower than the models showed. Three papers followed, including one produced by 14 lead authors of the IPCC report, that backed the evidence. Francis Zwiers and others at the university of Victoria, British Columbia found that global warming was overestimated by 100% over 20 years.


Nea ands his minions will have something to say about this?
woa - where did that blob come from behind Ingrid?
1516. pcola57

Quoting 1512. Bobbyweather:


Humberto looks kinda awful right now, with convection only to the north and east of the center (which I think is near 26.4N 40.2W), but the center is well-defined considering it is under moderate shear (15 ~ 25 kt).



But the trend, is its friend!
Ingrid holding up very well despite apparent strong WNW winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
1519. pcola57
Quoting 1503. trunkmonkey:
On September 27, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release part of their fifth assessment report on climate change. For the first time since 1990, this report will scale back the hysteria on global warming.

Matt Ridley at The Wall Street Journal viewed a few leaks from the 31-page document and talked to one of the senior climate scientists. The temperature rise due to man-made carbon dioxide is lower than their prediction in 2007. Originally a three degrees Celsius increase was predicted, but that number is now expected to be between 1-2.5 degrees Celsius.

Specifically, the draft report says that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" (ECS)—eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur—is "extremely likely" to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), "likely" to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and "very likely" to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was "likely" to be above 2 degrees Celsius and "very likely" to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since "extremely" and "very" have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.

Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.

Ridley pointed out that many papers in the last year have come to this same conclusion. Scientists at the University of Illinois and Oslo University in Norway found the ECS levels would be lower than the models showed. Three papers followed, including one produced by 14 lead authors of the IPCC report, that backed the evidence. Francis Zwiers and others at the university of Victoria, British Columbia found that global warming was overestimated by 100% over 20 years.


Quoting 1514. PensacolaDoug:


Nea ands his minions will have something to say about this?


Morning Doug..
I think I will wait and see what the report actually says before forming my opinion..
Been keeping up with the conference and it has tons of info in it..
Hope all is well your way today.. :)
Quoting 1514. PensacolaDoug:


Nea ands his minions will have something to say about this?
Well, first, I have no minions (unless you count my three kids, and since one of them is currently in the military and stationed in South Korea, another starts a new career tomorrow, and the third is busy with school, I'm on my own, I guess).

Second--and more importantly--the Ridley op-ed piece has been discussed numerous times already, here mostly in Dr. Rood's forum. In short, most scientists have chosen to ignore yet another opinion piece by a well-known denialist that misrepresents the truth of the matter, cherry picks for effect, and is published in that bastion of science, the Wall Street Journal. (Hint: why do you suppose it is that Ridley published in a Murdoch-owned rag rather than, say, a peer-reviewed publication?)
Quoting 1481. Bobbyweather:
Okay. I think this is the third time I'm asking this.
"Was there a season when at least three storms regenerated?"
Dorian and Gabrielle have done it, and Humberto is foreacast to. I wish someone could answer my question.
You know, you could always research it yourself rather than becoming impatient with others for not doing so for you. Just saying...
1523. GatorWX
Morning everyone!

I believe I saw Ingrid spin off a mid-level vorticy last night, which I thought was cool. I wonder if it'll have an affect on another low forming down there in the wcarib/boc. It seemed very evident on satellite animations. It didn't look like a component of a sheared system as "spin" was very obvious.Did anyone else notice what I did?



Also, this secondary blob of convection showed up afterwards.

Slept until almost 0800, but tomorrow into Tuesday I'll lose five hours, so it was well justified.
Quoting 1519. pcola57:




Morning Doug..
I think I will wait and see what the report actually says before forming my opinion..
Been keeping up with the conference and it has tons of info in it..
Hope all is well your way today.. :)


Well sure! I'm not taking anything I read here as gospel. It will be interesting to see if the IPCC does scale back its predictions in any significant way. I cant help but wonder tho if some of our agw friends would be disappointed that if, in a few years, it turned out to be much ado about nothing.
So far for hurricane season 2013: 9/2/0

June: 2/0/0

July: 2/0/0

August: 2/0/0

September:3/2/0

My predictions from late April/early May: 18/10/4
Looking highly unlikely but not impossible. I would watch the Caribbean, BOC, Gulf of Mexico area closely especially when a mjo pulse comes through the area.
1526. pcola57
Quoting 1524. PensacolaDoug:


Well sure! I'm not taking anything I read here as gospel. It will be interesting to see if the IPCC does scale back its predictions in any significant way. I cant help but wonder tho if some of our agw friends would be disappointed that if, in a few years, it turned out to be much ado about nothing.


That my friend is when to toot your horn..
And more power to you if so..
Pool party today..
Super nice out this am here.. :)
1527. centex
Where are the north wish casters? I need them before it's too late.
Quoting 1524. PensacolaDoug:


Well sure! I'm not taking anything I read here as gospel. It will be interesting to see if the IPCC does scale back its predictions in any significant way. I cant help but wonder tho if some of our agw friends would be disappointed that if, in a few years, it turned out to be much ado about nothing.
Disappointed? Not at all. In fact, we'd be thrilled beyond belief to realize that civilization has a slightly better chance of escaping this massive, self-induced catastrophe. Though I have to tell you, we'd also be slack-jawed with amazement and confusion over the magical suspension of the laws of physics and chemistry that allowed that escape.
1529. IKE

Quoting Tornado6042008X:
So far for hurricane season 2013: 9/2/0

June: 2/0/0

July: 2/0/0

August: 2/0/0

September:3/2/0

My predictions from late April/early May: 18/10/4
Looking highly unlikely but not impossible. I would watch the Caribbean, BOC, Gulf of Mexico area closely especially when a mjo pulse comes through the area.
Don't think it's going to achieve 18 named systems. GFS and ECMWF show little after Humberto and Ingrid are gone.

I could be wrong though.
Hey Doug and 57, heard a rumor that the lacerations the guy on the beach yesterday, were from a dolphin? If so, would that be Pensacola's first documented dolphin attack? I blame it on global warming, the dolphins are ticked that t he water is so dang warm, heading into October.
while wade fishing last spring we had two flippers charge us only backing away a couple yrds away. they were hungry trying to get our seatrout.. that has never happen before and we'd been fishing out therefor decades.
1532. pcola57
Quoting 1530. PanhandleChuck:
Hey Doug and 57, heard a rumor that the lacerations the guy on the beach yesterday, were from a dolphin? If so, would that be Pensacola's first documented dolphin attack? I blame it on global warming, the dolphins are ticked that t he water is so dang warm, heading into October.


LOL..Chuck.. :)

Hadn't heard about the dolphin attack?
Am looking into the news right now..
I don't see it but I do see an explosion has occured in Destin..
More in a few..
Don't really think Inghrid's gonna live up to the NHC's predictions and become a Cat 2...
Could be wrong but it sure don't look like she will.
Of course she could change..
Quoting 1523. GatorWX:
Morning everyone!

I believe I saw Ingrid spin off a mid-level vorticy last night, which I thought was cool. I wonder if it'll have an affect on another low forming down there in the wcarib/boc. It seemed very evident on satellite animations. It didn't look like a component of a sheared system as "spin" was very obvious.Did anyone else notice what I did?



Also, this secondary blob of convection showed up afterwards.

Slept until almost 0800, but tomorrow into Tuesday I'll lose five hours, so it was well justified.
There is no question that even after Ingrid departs we will have more to watch in the BOC, the western Carribean and through the Bahamas.
Quoting 1529. IKE:

Don't think it's going to achieve 18 named systems. GFS and ECMWF show little after Humberto and Ingrid are gone.

I could be wrong though.
I don't think so either.But never say never;) Now of course most of these predictions were made before we knew how unpredictable this season would be with vigorous waves literally going poof in the East/Central Atlantic due to dry stable air and the procrastinating MJO.
Look at that blow up in the west Caribbean a low is forming there
Quoting 1531. islander101010:
while wade fishing last spring we had two flippers charge us only backing away a couple yrds away. they were hungry trying to get our seatrout.. that has never happen before and we'd been fishing out therefor decades.
There are several dolphins around Gordons pass in Naples that wait for you to release your catch and then they snatch it. Honestly, I think it's more for their entertainment. I have been surfing beside them and watched as they throw 20lb snook in the air tossing them back and forth to each other like a beach ball.
1539. pcola57
Hey Chuck..
They are saying a shark attack at Pensacola Beach yesterday afternoon..
That'll keep it real at the beach today..
Don't see anything about a dolphin yet..
Destin explosion from a residence..
Thats all I see..
This latest recon really isn't finding anything over 50 MPH. Strange. Looks like it did sort of decouple.
1541. ncstorm
Good Morning..

06z Navgem
I'm also looking into grants American Universities are using for Environmental studies, that are laundried funds from the Saudi Government.

I've been surfing for about 30 years and I've had fun and some not so fun encounters with dolphins. They are usually curious and playful, but can be territorial/aggressive at times for whatever reason.

But most of the time we would rub/tap our surf boards to get the dolphins to come up next to us on our surf boards and check us out. Definitely pretty cool interacting with such large and beautiful creatures.
As Manuel makes landfall today and weakens, wind shear should begin to decrease over Ingrid and intensification should resume.
Hurry up Manuel.
make the landfall :P
Quoting 1543. Sfloridacat5:


Being a long time surfer I've had many dolphin encounters. They can be scary because they are such big creatures. I was pretty scared one

I've been surfing for about 30 years and I've had fun and some not so fun encounters with dolphins. They are usually curious and playful, but can be territorial/aggressive at times for whatever reason.

But most of the time we would rub/tap out surf boards to get the dolphins to come up next to us on our surf boards and check us out. Definitely pretty cool interacting with such large and beautiful creatures.
Nice. Started in 79 at the age of 9 here. Taken me all over the world. Even discovered 4 new spots in the Abacos while living there. The one on my avatar is one of my best dicoveries. Now Kechele, lopezes and a bunch of guys have enjoyed it since.

Strange the way the winds have fallen off according to recon.
Quoting 1539. pcola57:
Hey Chuck..
They are saying a shark attack at Pensacola Beach yesterday afternoon..
That'll keep it real at the beach today..
Don't see anything about a dolphin yet..
Destin explosion from a residence..
Thats all I see..
WEAR website sucks..


LOL, the only news website that is reliable is foxnews.com

They even report the weather fair and balanced
Dolphins are known for trying to get a little too frisky with people from time to time.
Luckily that never happened to me when I did the Dolphin encounter in the Bahamas
Quoting 1541. ncstorm:
Good Morning..

06z Navgem

There it goes...trying to fool us again...
LOL Chuck!! Opening that can of worms early this morning!
12z Best Track down to 65kts.

AL, 10, 2013091512, , BEST, 0, 224N, 956W, 65, 989, HU
Quoting 1514. PensacolaDoug:


Nea ands his minions will have something to say about this?


Something along the lines of 'so what if our prognostications were wrong; Denialists are still wronger!'?

EDIT: YUP!
Quoting 1521. Neapolitan:
Well, first, I have no minions (unless you count my three kids, and since one of them is currently in the military and stationed in South Korea, another starts a new career tomorrow, and the third is busy with school, I'm on my own, I guess).

Second--and more importantly--the Ridley op-ed piece has been discussed numerous times already, here mostly in Dr. Rood's forum. In short, most scientists have chosen to ignore yet another opinion piece by a well-known denialist that misrepresents the truth of the matter, cherry picks for effect, and is published in that bastion of science, the Wall Street Journal. (Hint: why do you suppose it is that Ridley published in a Murdoch-owned rag rather than, say, a peer-reviewed publication?)
1554. GatorWX
Do hurricanes exist in the "No Spin Zone"?

Quoting 1522. Neapolitan:
You know, you could always research it yourself rather than becoming impatient with others for not doing so for you. Just saying...

I'm sorry, I think it's just a habit. I'll try to do so from now on.

By the way, it seems that Ingrid has "weakened" according to the 12Z ATCF. Winds are estimated to be 65 kt, minimal hurricane strength.
Quoting 1550. GatorWX:
Destin house/car explosion.




what exploded first, the house or the car?
Good agreement that Humberto will become a hurricane again in roughly 108-120 hours.
Quoting 1546. Abacosurf:
Nice. Started in 79 at the age of 9 here. Taken me all over the world. Even discovered 4 new spots in the Abacos while living there. The one on my avatar is one of my best dicoveries. Now Kechele, lopezes and a bunch of guys have enjoyed it since.

Strange the way the winds have fallen off according to recon.


Cool avatar pic. My best surf pics are from Baha Mexico. Unfortunately some phyco broke into my apartment a while back (when I live in an apartment) and stole almost all my pics, along with my wetsuits, 1 bootie, and my cameras, cam corders. What was even more disturbing was he/she also stole some of my underwear.
I was more pissed off about my pics being stolen than anything else.

I took my avatar pic as I was leaving the beach after a session at Blind Pass, Captiva Island. Lots of clean waves that day. Really good day for our area on the gulf side of Fl.
1559. GatorWX
Quoting 1556. trunkmonkey:



what exploded first, the house or the car?


I didn't find an article that made that distinction, although one article was titled "Car Explodes", so... Not sure.
Good morning guys #1 for some reason ex Humberto/pre Humberto LLCOC kinda appears to be moving W-WSW not too sure but that's what it looks like in this image



#2 something is going on in the W Caribbean something don't look right
Quoting 1551. masonsnana:
LOL Chuck!! Opening that can of worms early this morning!


LOL, why not? I'm sure it is responsible for mad cow disease as well!
1562. GatorWX
Quoting 1550. GatorWX:
Destin house/car explosion.



It would certainly appear, judging by the damage to the vehicle, the car exploded first. It appears to have been a violent explosion as well.
12
hours
ago
Hurricane Ingrid soaking Mexico's Gulf Coast

Veracruz News via EPA
A handout image made available by Veracruz News shows a group of people walking through the flooded streets in Misantla, Veracruz, Mexico, Sept. 14, 2013.

By Adriana Barrera and Elinor Comlay, Reuters
Tropical storm Ingrid strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane off Mexico's Gulf Coast on Saturday, becoming the second hurricane of the Atlantic season as it dumped heavy rain across eastern Mexico.
Rain from the storm has caused river levels to rise and emergency services to prepare for evacuations, but state oil monopoly Pemex said its installations in the Gulf of Mexico were operating normally.
Ingrid, with winds of 75 miles per hour, could grow even stronger over the next two days as it nears Mexico's coast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
The storm was 195 miles east of the port of Tuxpan in Veracruz state at 6 p.m. ET and moving north at about 7 miles per hour, the NHC said.
Pemex was operating under security protocols but none of its installations had been affected, a spokesman said earlier on Saturday.
Two of Mexico's three major oil-exporting ports were closed, but most of the country's Gulf Coast ports including Veracruz remained open on Saturday as the storm approached.
Emergency services in Veracruz state were preparing shelters in the event of flooding, but at midday the shelters were empty, a spokesman said.
A hurricane watch was in effect for a stretch of Veracruz's northern coastline, the NHC said.
Landfall was expected on Monday morning for Ingrid, the ninth storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The storm was expected to dump between 10 inches and 25 inches of rain over a large part of eastern Mexico, which could cause rivers to swell, provoking flash floods and mudslides, according to the Miami-based NHC.
Ingrid could also bring a storm surge that would raise waters by two to four feet above normal tide levels near where the storm makes landfall, the NHC said.
Separately, tropical storm warnings are in effect on the Pacific Coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Manzanillo, where Tropical Storm Manuel is churning about 85 miles offshore.
Manuel was dumping heavy rain and causing landslides in parts of Oaxaca and Guerrero states in western Mexico.
Copyright 2013 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Quoting 1503. trunkmonkey:
On September 27, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release part of their fifth assessment report on climate change. For the first time since 1990, this report will scale back the hysteria on global warming.

Matt Ridley at The Wall Street Journal viewed a few leaks from the 31-page document and talked to one of the senior climate scientists. The temperature rise due to man-made carbon dioxide is lower than their prediction in 2007. Originally a three degrees Celsius increase was predicted, but that number is now expected to be between 1-2.5 degrees Celsius.

Specifically, the draft report says that "equilibrium climate sensitivity" (ECS)—eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occur—is "extremely likely" to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), "likely" to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and "very likely" to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was "likely" to be above 2 degrees Celsius and "very likely" to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since "extremely" and "very" have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.

Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.

Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.

Ridley pointed out that many papers in the last year have come to this same conclusion. Scientists at the University of Illinois and Oslo University in Norway found the ECS levels would be lower than the models showed. Three papers followed, including one produced by 14 lead authors of the IPCC report, that backed the evidence. Francis Zwiers and others at the university of Victoria, British Columbia found that global warming was overestimated by 100% over 20 years.
Quoting 1524. PensacolaDoug:


Well sure! I'm not taking anything I read here as gospel. It will be interesting to see if the IPCC does scale back its predictions in any significant way. I cant help but wonder tho if some of our agw friends would be disappointed that if, in a few years, it turned out to be much ado about nothing.
Quoting 1547. PanhandleChuck:


LOL, the only news website that is reliable is foxnews.com

They even report the weather fair and balanced



Why you all stirring a boiling pot for, knowing its still going to boil....LOL....MORNING
Ingrid has start to take that left sharp turn this morning, but it looks like it slowed down. It maybe going now around  2 mph. Also pressure keeps rising, now at 990 I don't see it making landfall higher than a Cat 1
Quoting 1564. TampaSpin:



Why you all stirring a boiling pot for, knowing its still going to boil....LOL....MORNING


If it was 3 pm in the afternoon a fire storm of off topic arguements would break out.
Quoting 1553. seminolesfan:


Something along the lines of 'so what if our prognostications were wrong; Denialists are still wronger!'?


I ain't denyan nutin, I'm just questioning one, is GW man made, or just a cycle?

Also, some of my research data, indicates the Saudi Government is involved for the purpose of propaganda against American interest!
Grants, groups, are well funded with Billions of dollars from the Saudi Government.
Repost - half asleep
1569. GatorWX
Quoting 1540. Abacosurf:
This latest recon really isn't finding anything over 50 MPH. Strange. Looks like it did sort of decouple.


I want some visible shots!



I commented on that last night. There were no takers. : /
Quoting 1567. trunkmonkey:


I ain't denyan nutin, I'm just questioning one, is GW man made, or just a cycle?

Also, some of my research data, indicates the Saudi Government is involved for the purpose of propaganda against American interest!
Grants, groups, are well funded with Billions of dollars from the Saudi Government.


I'll let you wear that metal foil cap, buddy. :)
Not sure what the church topic will be this morning, but I hope its not GW......LOL...by the way anyone that would like to view the service over the internet...shoot me a message and I will give you the link.....PRETTY AWESOME SERVICE EVERY WEEK!
W Carib AOI has vort stacked at 850mb and 700mb there is some at 500mb but not stacked has good low level convergence
1573. GatorWX
Good enough!

1574. GatorWX

Quoting 1567. trunkmonkey:


I ain't denyan nutin, I'm just questioning one, is GW man made, or just a cycle?

Also, some of my research data, indicates the Saudi Government is involved for the purpose of propaganda against American interest!
Grants, groups, are well funded with Billions of dollars from the Saudi Government.

Please for the love of God, let's not get into this c--p this morning!
GW and political c--p is NOT needed or wanted.
There is a hurricane on the Gulf side and a TS on the west side of Mexico that is going to cause massive flooding, property damage and probably serious loss of life.
AND YOU WANT TO STIR UP THIS BLOG WITH POLITICAL AND GW C--P??? PLEASE ZIP IT.
And a very pleasant good morning to my fellow tropical bloggers.
Quoting 1565. superweatherman:
Ingrid has start to take that left sharp turn this morning, but it looks like it slowed down. It maybe going now around  2 mph. Also pressure keeps rising, now at 990 I don't see it making landfall higher than a Cat 1
Quoting 1552. Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track down to 65kts.

AL, 10, 2013091512, , BEST, 0, 224N, 956W, 65, 989, HU
Quoting 1540. Abacosurf:
This latest recon really isn't finding anything over 50 MPH. Strange. Looks like it did sort of decouple.

RIP Ingrid
1577. pcola57
Ingrid had quite a lightening show last night..

Link for F18 visible from last night..Click HERE



First full sun image from GOES..
Ingrid looks energetic..

Quoting 1548. Sfloridacat5:
Dolphins are known for trying to get a little too frisky with people from time to time.
Luckily that never happened to me when I did the Dolphin encounter in the Bahamas
Hey... even the dolphins and sharks here understand the importance of the tourism product to the economy.... lol...

Mission 10 before it left found 80 plus mph winds. today mission 11 only found most tropical storm winds but some 72mph  in the right side and mission 12, well I cant find any pass 60mph.LOL
Quoting 1569. GatorWX:


I want some visible shots!



I commented on that last night. There were no takers. : /

I would like to hear thoughts on ex-Humberto...
it seems like it could regen. ahead of schedule.

also someone posted WSW motion...?

Thanks
1581. VR46L
Its strange she does not look frightening ....in low cloud!

Quoting 1542. trunkmonkey:
I'm also looking into grants American Universities are using for Environmental studies, that are laundried funds from the Saudi Government.



Any bit of evidence or is this more of your HAARP crazy conspiracy nonsense. Infowars does not count as a source, fyi.
Quoting 1580. NewEnglandSurfer:
I would like to hear thoughts on ex-Humberto...
it seems like it could regen. ahead of schedule.

also someone posted WSW motion...?

Thanks


it has NO chance at getting anywhere close to the ConUs.....it will remain a central Atlantic system and be sweep up by the uppers toward Europe soon.
1585. VR46L
But water vapour ... different story ....

Ingrid weakening.

How surprising considering the season we're in. :P
Quoting 1581. VR46L:
Its strange she does not look frightening ....in low cloud!



She looks like an orange butt on infrared ;D

Good morning Liz, and all =)
1588. pcola57
Some tall clouds..
Maybe hot towers?

Quoting 1567. trunkmonkey:


I ain't denyan nutin, I'm just questioning one, is GW man made, or just a cycle?

Also, some of my research data, indicates the Saudi Government is involved for the purpose of propaganda against American interest!
Grants, groups, are well funded with Billions of dollars from the Saudi Government.


What cycle would that be? Please name the cycle, the length of the cycle, and show where it has happened previously. Bonus points if you show the math that at the very least shows a correlation between the last time the cycle occurred and our current time.
Quoting 1580. NewEnglandSurfer:
I would like to hear thoughts on ex-Humberto...
it seems like it could regen. ahead of schedule.

also someone posted WSW motion...?

Thanks

Yes it appears that Humberto is moving WSW however I think this should eventually head back WNW-NW
Quoting 1578. BahaHurican:
Hey... even the dolphins and sharks here understand the importance of the tourism product to the economy.... lol...



Maybe I should feel bad that I wasn't good enough for them? Why not me?
1592. GatorWX
Quoting 1579. superweatherman:
Mission 10 before it left found 80 plus mph winds. today mission 11 only found most tropical storm winds but some 72mph  in the right side and mission 12, well I cant find any pass 60mph.LOL



Something appears to have happened. Still not sure what though. I can't find much evidence other than satellite presentation. That second blob of convection has been there since last night when, what looked like a piece of mid level energy, spun off to the se. It has had a disheveled appearance since.
14/12 ecmwf shows low pressure from the yucatan heading into the gulf towards Fl and 15/00z GFS hints at the same thing, per-Melbourne Fl weather discussion. By next weekend. Intresting.
1594. GatorWX
ugghhhhh, here we go....
@Tampa Spin - totally agree. curious though if track is off, and specifically what western Lat. this storm might reach, and at what intensity. Copmared to this time yesterday the NHC maps have it 5 degrees more W and "w/ the red' circle.

Thanks
Quoting 1589. Naga5000:


What cycle would that be? Please name the cycle, the length of the cycle, and show where it has happened previously. Bonus points if you show the math that at very least shows correlation.

Naga, please don't quote him. If we just ignore, he will take his crazy self somewhere else and we can enjoy our TROPICAL blog this morning.
Thank you so very much.
Quoting 1594. GatorWX:
ugghhhhh, here we go....


Well, if someone wasn't flat out smearing academic institutions claiming a massive conspiracy, I wouldn't have said a word. Seriously, it seems like someone can post the most outrageous conspiracy here without a peep, but as soon as someone challenges their absurd assertion, we get an "Ugghhhhh"....I'm not getting it.
Quoting 1580. NewEnglandSurfer:
I would like to hear thoughts on ex-Humberto...
it seems like it could regen. ahead of schedule.

also someone posted WSW motion...?

Thanks
Quoting 1583. TampaSpin:


it has NO chance at getting anywhere close to the ConUs.....it will remain a central Atlantic system and be sweep up by the uppers toward Europe soon.

Although if it can make its way further W then it could become a threat to Canada but more as rip currents than anything else
Quoting 1561. PanhandleChuck:


LOL, why not? I'm sure it is responsible for mad cow disease as well!


LOL!!
Anybody RIPing Ingrid before this evening is being somewhat premature.

Furthermore, since the most extensive damage from the cyclone is expected to be caused by the heavy rains, I seriously doubt whether a difference of 10 - 20 kts wind speed will somehow magically cause this damage potential to disappear.

Good Sunday morning to all.
Quoting 1592. GatorWX:


Something appears to have happened. Still not sure what though. I can't find much evidence other than satellite presentation. That second blob of convection has been there since last night when, what looked like a piece of mid level energy, spun off to the se. It has had a disheveled appearance since.



Its in 20-25kts of Shear.....Shear is hitting it fairly hard now.



Quoting 1584. HoustonTxGal:

Looking that this, it appears to my (uneducated eye) that TS Manuel's energy might be influencing Ingrid. Maybe this is why she is looking a little ragged this morning? Any thoughts?
Winds in the western semicircle are no higher than 35kts. Pressure down to 986.1mb as they approach the circulation.

132230 2223N 09539W 6966 03045 9861 +145 +104 357010 019 004 000 03
Quoting 1492. meteorite:
FOR MEXICO OR THE AZORES
Quoting 1493. Stormchaser121:

Well idk about that...I hope not. Tx still needs rain and im tired of all the storms moving away from us when we need it.


SOOOOOO TRUUUUUE

I'm so bored too! TIRED WITH BOC storms, really!

AND TIRED WITH THIS TOO.... LOOK AT THE N LEEWARD ISLAND DESERT :(

2013=odd.year
9 days from now - way out there. But does indicate a pattern change.
We'll be in the process of moving (locally) that week so I feel confident it will develop and affect Fl.lol
I'm home from Visiting my Dad in Canberra, Long drive but great to see Dad doing so well compared to 2 weeks ago.

What did I miss, anything???
Quoting 1597. Naga5000:


Well, if someone wasn't flat out smearing academic institutions claiming a massive conspiracy, I wouldn't have said a word. Seriously, it seems like someone can post the most outrageous conspiracy here without a peep, but as soon as someone challenges their absurd assertion, we get an "Ugghhhhh"....I'm not getting it.
It's because you are extending the conversation while the rest of us have just [-] the post and moved on.

Passive resistance.
Good morning everyone

Beautiful day on the island, 88 (feeling like 99) with a small chance of showers.

We also had an explosion last night, a gas station. You can take a look here:

Link

Lindy
Quoting 1601. TampaSpin:



Its in 20-25kts of Shear.....Shear is hitting it fairly hard now.



MANUEL! Y U NO MAKE LANDFALL AND STOP HURTING INGRID!
Quoting 1605. islander101010:
2013=odd.year


YES THAT's for sure. I'm so frustrated.
1612. GatorWX
Naga,

It's just not worth it though and it discourages some from even bothering with the discussion at hand. There is a system of significance in the GOM and we all know which direction the argument goes. I can't say I disagree, but as I've said before, post facts without quoting. Quoting only instigates the argument further.

Ingrid, sloppiness!

Quoting 1592. GatorWX:


Something appears to have happened. Still not sure what though. I can't find much evidence other than satellite presentation. That second blob of convection has been there since last night when, what looked like a piece of mid level energy, spun off to the se. It has had a disheveled appearance since.



I read last night that that someone, can't remember who, was calling for a split off. One section (possibly the piggy back blob) to break off and head off another way.
Quoting 1601. TampaSpin:



Its in 20-25kts of Shear.....Shear is hitting it fairly hard now.



Pretty obvious from the imagery where the shear is coming from and why a westward turn is pretty likely.
1615. GatorWX
Quoting 1601. TampaSpin:



Its in 20-25kts of Shear.....Shear is hitting it fairly hard now.





I know it's being sheared.
I hope we will have something really big that will catch up the rain deficit.
Last night a local meteorologist was still calling Ingrid !!! a Tropical Storm.
I wanted to hit him over the head.
1618. hydrus
Quoting 1581. VR46L:
Its strange she does not look frightening ....in low cloud!

It is important to understand that this system will do strange and unusual things being so close to another tropical storm and the topography of the land. Another area of disturbed weather is cropping up in the Western Caribbean... Interesting to say the least.
just when you thought we'd wake up and see a major we get this has she stalled?west.car.tomorrow


I am here in North Houston, and while I do not want a major storm by any stretch of the imagination, I would like a nice rainmaker.
Corrected post 1617.
Met was calling Ingrid a T.S. last night.
1622. GatorWX
Supposed to be another wet day in CO. 2 plus inches forecast.

A 50kt intensity for Ingrid would be generous.
Quoting 1620. HoustonTxGal:


I am here in North Houston, and while I do not want a major storm by any stretch of the imagination, I would like a nice rainmaker.


On the south side of Pasa-getdown-dena, and we DO need a rainmaker!


Beautiful weather, but would be definitely more enjoyable if there was a big mess of thunderstorms approaching from the east, or a strengthening slow moving TS heading my way....
1626. Hhunter
Quoting 1572. wunderkidcayman:
W Carib AOI has vort stacked at 850mb and 700mb there is some at 500mb but not stacked has good low level convergence
in addition a Low associated with Ingrid will loop off mexico and join up with this blob and likely form a new tropical system.
Quoting 1567. trunkmonkey:


I ain't denyan nutin, I'm just questioning one, is GW man made, or just a cycle?

Also, some of my research data, indicates the Saudi Government is involved for the purpose of propaganda against American interest!
Grants, groups, are well funded with Billions of dollars from the Saudi Government.


This makes sense, because if there is anything the Saudis hate to sell, it's oil.

I also heard that McDonald's is secretly funding scientific research that shows hamburgers, fries, and sodas are really poisonous. It's true, I saw it on the intertubes.

Perfect late summer day in Maine, sunny, going to hit the 70's. I see fishing in my future, if not actual fish. Either way, there will be unhappy worms.

Thoughts turning towards the folks in Colorado recovering from awful rains and flooding, and the folks in Mexico about to endure even worse. As fascinating as this weather is, one has to remember there are people under the weather over which we sometimes obsess.



1628. Hhunter
Quoting 1618. hydrus:
It is important to understand that this system will do strange and unusual things being so close to another tropical storm and the topography of the land. Another area of disturbed weather is cropping up in the Western Caribbean... Interesting to say the least.
The problem is the outflow from Manuel is too strong and shearing Ingrid.. That is just the deal
Quoting 1528. Neapolitan:
Disappointed? Not at all. In fact, we'd be thrilled beyond belief to realize that civilization has a slightly better chance of escaping this massive, self-induced catastrophe. Though I have to tell you, we'd also be slack-jawed with amazement and confusion over the magical suspension of the laws of physics and chemistry that allowed that escape.




I don't buy it. The disappointment part, that is. Never let a good crisis go to waste and all. The agw part, I'm on the fence.
I'm looking at the clouds camped out over the Ft. Collins area... not good.

Also noting
a) the blob over the area N of Colorado Springs, where they've had considerable burn in the last 18 months and wondering how much that will increase run-off in the area, and
b) the blob over the Laramie Mtns N of Cheyenne and wondering whether we'll start to see similar flash flooding there. Granted that area is much less highly populated than the Denver to Cheyenne Front Range area that's already been hard hit.
1631. pcola57

Quoting 1602. CitikatzSouthFL:

Buscando que esto, parece que mi (ojo sin educación) que la energía del TS Manuel podría estar influyendo Ingrid. Tal vez es por eso que ella está buscando un poco irregular esta mañana? ¿Alguna idea?


She (Ingrid), is waiting for her husband, she needs more presupposed to continue.

Is it possible that Ingrid splits in two cyclones? Does it seem?

Regards from Yucatan Mexico
Water Vapor shows the NE GOM shut down for the moment. Soon to change, but for now, Eastern GOM closed for business.
Quoting 1633. Sfloridacat5:
Water Vapor shows the NE GOM door shut down for the moment. Soon to change, but for now, Eastern GOM closed for business.


The DO NOT ENTER sign is up
Quoting 1625. CaribBoy:


Beautiful weather, but would be definitely more enjoyable if there was a big mess of thunderstorms approaching from the east, or a strengthening slow moving TS heading my way....
We haven't seen this much clear blue for months.... almost every day has been partly cloudy, mostly cloudy, or overcast [or raining] for the better part.
1636. IKE
Dew point here in the Florida panhandle is 64 this morning. Beautiful weather.
Quoting 1615. GatorWX:


I know it's being sheared.



You said you didn't know what happened.....LOL....its cool.
Off to CHURCH...have a great day everyone.
Quoting 1632. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


She (Ingrid), is waiting for her husband, she needs more presupposed to continue.

Is it possible that Ingrid splits in two cyclones? Does it seem?

Regards from Yucatan Mexico

I have been quoted in Espanol! Way Cool!
Thanks for responding.
Are you in any danger from effects of rain? Looks like the Yucatan is still getting a lot.
My prayers are with those who will be getting hit by Ingid (whenever she decides to come ashore).
Quoting 1636. IKE:
Dew point here in the Florida panhandle is 64 this morning. Beautiful weather.


My Davis Vue says dew point of 80 degrees (98% humidity) out our house. Everything is soaked with dew from last night.
Quoting 1636. IKE:
Dew point here in the Florida panhandle is 64 this morning. Beautiful weather.

Here in S FL, Port St. Lucie, thunder storms, wind and rain coming in sporadically...heavy at times.
Quoting 1606. Sfloridacat5:
9 days from now - way out there. But does indicate a pattern change.
We'll be in the process of moving (locally) that week so I feel confident it will develop and affect Fl.lol

Wow a weak TS affecting us in Cayman in 8-9 days then Cuba
Well we will get the much needed rain lol
1643. GatorWX
Quoting 1637. TampaSpin:



You said you didn't know what happened.....LOL....its cool.


I also said I know it's sheared, so that would've contradicted stating that I didn't know and thus, was something other than.

Go TB!!! : )
gfs? no landfall instead slowly builds east
1645. GatorWX
Pretty rapid deterioration of its structure.

1646. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:
Pretty rapid deterioration of its structure.


2013, the year of the UnderPerformers.........
Quoting 1644. islander101010:
gfs? no landfall instead slowly builds east


Ingrid?
Landall in 42 hours - estimate
Late last night Ingird's MLC appeared to decouple from the LLC. This may lead to some temporary weakening. Manuel's anticyclone is preventing Ingrid from getting too strong, by inducing the shear that led to Ingrid's decoupling.

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather has persisted in the western Caribbean for 36 hours now, but overnight it expanded significantly in size. I expect a low pressure area to form in the Caribbean with tropical development a possibility for the upcoming week. Heavy rains and gradually increasing winds should impact Cuba, Mexico, and the Cayman Islands as this large area of low pressure continues to deepen. Convergence values were as high as 20 over night for this area, shear is low, and the water has the highest tropical cyclone heat content in the basin. It is a distinct possibility that the low forming in the Caribbean could become significantly stronger than Hurricane Ingrid owing to these conditions.
We're talking about Ingrid weakening while local meteorologist just said Ingrid is intensifying and will most likley be cat 2. lol
1651. GatorWX
Quoting 1646. pottery:

2013, the year of the UnderPerformers.........


So far it seems. Regardless of strength, I imagine the combination of the two storms is going to create a very overachieving rain event for much of Mexico.
According to the latest dropsonde, an intensity of 60 kt is possible.

997mb (Surface) 80° (from the E) 59 knots (68 mph)
Quoting 1645. GatorWX:
Pretty rapid deterioration of its structure.



Could it be reforming a new COC under that secondary blob?
Quoting 1635. BahaHurican:
We haven't seen this much clear blue for months.... almost every day has been partly cloudy, mostly cloudy, or overcast [or raining] for the better part.


Unfortunately, days with a REAL beautiful weather like what we have been experiencing for a few days now, are actually not as frequent as days with REAL boring weather (partly cloudy, with somewhat HAZY sky, FRESH WINDS and NO RAIN).
Quoting 1652. Bobbyweather:
According to the latest dropsonde, an intensity of 60 kt is possible.

997mb (Surface) 80° (from the E) 59 knots (68 mph)


WELCOME TO 2013.... THE BUST SEASON.
1656. GatorWX
Quoting 1650. Sfloridacat5:
We're talking about Ingrid weakening while local meteorologist just said Ingrid is intensifying and will most likley be cat 2. lol


News mets? Most of them are clueless and many times carry only broadcasting degrees and a basic meteorological certificate. I don't take most very serious. There are a few however.
1657. hydrus
Quoting 1628. Hhunter:
The problem is the outflow from Manuel is too strong and shearing Ingrid.. That is just the deal
The same thing happened to Frederic in 1979. The outflow from Hurricane David kept shearing it apart even though Fred was a potent system.
Quoting 1651. GatorWX:


So far it seems. Regardless of strength, I imagine the combination of the two storms is going to create a very overachieving rain event for much of Mexico.


And they don't need that...
Quoting 1647. HoustonTxGal:


HoustonTxGal - I joined Wunderground 2 days before you back in 2007.
I thought that was interesting:)
Quoting 1642. wunderkidcayman:

Wow a weak TS affecting us in Cayman in 8-9 days then Cuba
Well we will get the much needed rain lol


I thought you were back to normal with regards to rainfall in Cayman. Here is real dry, but the weather is REAL GORGEOUS TODAY!
1661. GatorWX
Quoting 1653. rudyinpompano:


Could it be reforming a new COC under that secondary blob?


I don't know. I thought that, perhaps. I don't know if I can remember a hurricane having a coc relocation. It's embedded within a much larger scale system and it's not everyday we have that either. I really don't know what to think right now. I'm hoping the next advisory clears up some of this ugliness.
Quoting 1656. GatorWX:


News mets? Most of them are clueless and many times carry only broadcasting degrees and a basic meteorological certificate. I don't take most very serious. There are a few however.


Yes, news met. He's averaging about 12 hours behind with his facts.
Last night he kept saying Ingrid was a T.S.
We had our first winter gale this morning, here in Scotland. About a month earlier than usual. Getting brighter, now.
well its turning out to be a very active season afterall
1665. hydrus
For the 3rd day, the GFS develops the system in the Western Caribbean.
Quoting 1652. Bobbyweather:
According to the latest dropsonde, an intensity of 60 kt is possible.

997mb (Surface) 80° (from the E) 59 knots (68 mph)
Which mission?
1667. GatorWX
1668. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:


So far it seems. Regardless of strength, I imagine the combination of the two storms is going to create a very overachieving rain event for much of Mexico.


Yeah it looks to be heading for that.
Was watching some vids from Colorado earlier.
Bad stuff.

We had some local flooding again last week. Houses washed out etc.
But for the first time ever, our Minister of the Environment says that it's the result of bad practices from developers, and the failure of the Authorities to uphold the Law.....

DUH !!!
1669. VR46L
Quoting 1663. yonzabam:
We had our first winter gale this morning, here in Scotland. About a month earlier than usual. Getting brighter, now.


Yep hit 50 kts Here in the past hour ... autumn is already here :(




Tropical , I don't think Ingie looks a cane at the moment ....
Ingrid is attempting to reconsolidate by pulling the area of convection east of the storm into the main area of convection. Once Manuel makes landfall and weakens, the associated shear should decrease, allowing Ingrid to recover some strength.

The western Caribbean low is developing and producing widespread heavy convection. Slow development is likely and being in the Caribbean with high TCHP I expect our next named storm here.

Humberto should reintensify to a Hurricane as forecasted by the NHC.

In conclusion- we are likely to see 2 Hurricanes (Ingrid/Humberto) and a developing tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean over the next few days. This is a true Late Bloomer season with the heavy activity occuring after the climatological peak.
Quoting 1666. Abacosurf:
Which mission?

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 13:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 10
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 21
--
Peak winds at 936mb is 70 knots.
On the other hand, it seems that the NOAA aircraft has already arrived at Tampa, and the Air Force aircraft is also leaving Ingrid.
1672. GatorWX
Quoting 1653. rudyinpompano:


Could it be reforming a new COC under that secondary blob?


I don't think it's a coc relocation after looking at microwave imaging and visible sats. It does seem as if there is a secondary or stretched vorticy, or it's decoupled. The llc is starting to fire new convection, so I don't think it's relocated or will. In this season however, nothing would surprise me. :)
Quoting 1668. pottery:


Yeah it looks to be heading for that.
Was watching some vids from Colorado earlier.
Bad stuff.

We had some local flooding again last week. Houses washed out etc.
But for the first time ever, our Minister of the Environment says that it's the result of bad practices from developers, and the failure of the Authorities to uphold the Law.....

DUH !!!
What a pity nobody around here wants to admit it's building the house in the swamp that's causing the house flooding.... :o/
1674. GatorWX
Quoting 1668. pottery:


Yeah it looks to be heading for that.
Was watching some vids from Colorado earlier.
Bad stuff.

We had some local flooding again last week. Houses washed out etc.
But for the first time ever, our Minister of the Environment says that it's the result of bad practices from developers, and the failure of the Authorities to uphold the Law.....

DUH !!!


That happens there too?? ; )

Colorado doesn't need anymore moisture!

That high pushing down out of Canada may be a godsend.



Seems the moisture flow out of the tropics will be diverted eastward at this point with all that DRY air over the Pacific settling in.
i think next season is gonna be very active also
1676. hydrus
Quoting 1670. GrandCaymanMed:
Ingrid is attempting to reconsolidate by pulling the area of convection east of the storm into the main area of convection. Once Manuel makes landfall and weakens, the associated shear should decrease, allowing Ingrid to recover some strength.

The western Caribbean low is developing and producing widespread heavy convection. Slow development is likely and being in the Caribbean with high TCHP I expect our next named storm here.

Humberto should reintensify to a Hurricane as forecasted by the NHC.

In conclusion- we are likely to see 2 Hurricanes (Ingrid/Humberto) and a developing tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean over the next few days. This is a true Late Bloomer season with the heavy activity occuring after the climatological peak.
The Western Caribbean system could end up being a big event.
1677. vis0

CREDIT:NASA water Vapor (used my x3WV
filter, not a NASA product.)

SUBJECT:Ingrid201309-15;0819_;1315
Click for VID, click on play bar at vidmeup if VID is stuck..

Yellow NASA LOGO
indicates missing/bad frames i excluded, take into account not a
natural progression jump.


1678. hamla
imo looks like ingred might be trying to relocate coc to se ??
I see there's a non-tasked mission for Ingrid.
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 14:17Z
Date: September 15, 2013
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 10
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 07
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1011 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLZ072-172-151500-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL
1011 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN BROWARD
COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 1007 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORT EVERGLADES...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT
10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
PORT EVERGLADES...
FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...
FORT LAUDERDALE...
INTERSECTION I-595 AND I-95...
DOWNTOWN-DAVIE...
LAUDERHILL...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
Good morning everybody!

Manuel won't be a problem for Ingrid for much longer. It's about the make landfall very shortly, and it already appears to have weakened some since last night.
models showing that western carib sytem in 3 days show it going into the boc then south mexico.... poor mexico again later next week
Quoting 1669. VR46L:


Yep hit 50 kts Here in the past hour ... autumn is already here :(




Tropical , I don't think Ingie looks a cane at the moment ....


Not getting hit with the winds as bad as you two here in N Wales, is windy, but nothing outlandish..unless it's still on the way! Lots of rain though.

I agree, Ingrid's looking a mess, fire the hairdresser!
Quoting 1660. CaribBoy:


I thought you were back to normal with regards to rainfall in Cayman. Here is real dry, but the weather is REAL GORGEOUS TODAY!

Kinda not yet

Quoting 1676. hydrus:
The Western Caribbean system could end up being a big event.

Yep

Quoting 1670. GrandCaymanMed:
Ingrid is attempting to reconsolidate by pulling the area of convection east of the storm into the main area of convection. Once Manuel makes landfall and weakens, the associated shear should decrease, allowing Ingrid to recover some strength.

The western Caribbean low is developing and producing widespread heavy convection. Slow development is likely and being in the Caribbean with high TCHP I expect our next named storm here.

Humberto should reintensify to a Hurricane as forecasted by the NHC.

In conclusion- we are likely to see 2 Hurricanes (Ingrid/Humberto) and a developing tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean over the next few days. This is a true Late Bloomer season with the heavy activity occuring after the climatological peak.


We have to watch it
Boulder Co, CO declared for FEMA individual assistance. Link
Quoting 1682. meteorite:
models showing that western carib sytem in 3 days show it going into the boc then south mexico.... poor mexico again later next week

Yeah sorry don't buy it too much let look at to tomorrow then we say
Lol

models showing that western carib sytem in 3 days show it going into the boc then south mexico.... poor mexico again later next week
Quoting 1687. meteorite:
models showing that western carib sytem in 3 days show it going into the boc then south mexico.... poor mexico again later next week
sorry hit repost by mistake
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
717 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

PZZ135-WAZ504-505-508-509-511>513-519-151700-
PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
There has been a thunder boom every 2 seconds here. Unusual for this area. Similar to last week, but without the heavy rain, when the motorcyclist was hit on I-5 16 miles from here.

717 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.NOW...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH LEWIS COUNTY AND INTO THURSTON...MASON AND EASTERN GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM. ONE BATCH OF STORMS WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST FROM MOSSYROCK AND CINEBAR TO YELM AND RAINIER.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH UP I-5 FROM LONGVIEW TO
CENTRALIA. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH OLYMPIA... SHELTON AND
MONTESANO BETWEEN 830 AND 930 AM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG
WITH BRIEF YET INTENSE BURSTS OF RAINFALL.
THE BLOG IS SLOW, IT LOOKS LIKE MANY ARE BORED LIKE ME!
1691. GatorWX
Quoting 1683. mitthbevnuruodo:


Not getting hit with the winds as bad as you two here in N Wales, is windy, but nothing outlandish..unless it's still on the way! Lots of rain though.

I agree, Ingrid's looking a mess, fire the hairdresser!


That's the same system that'll give Barcelona higher chances of rain next week, booooo!
1692. GatorWX
Quoting 1681. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

Manuel won't be a problem for Ingrid for much longer. It's about the make landfall very shortly, and it already appears to have weakened some since last night.


What may also help are some storms along the coast after daytime heating ramps up, acting sort of like a treeline in a field. I always assumed that was the case anyway.
NASA Global Hawk Drone is in the air
Geez, is there really a beach there?

Link

Lindy
Humberto and Ingrid were at one point predicted to become 100 mph, both stopped strengthening at 85mph, and both had trouble ever clearing out an eye as a hurricane...
As much as I'd LOVE a Cat. 2, I think Mexico's had enough..
000
WTNT45 KNHC 151450
TCDAT5

HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF
INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR
OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT. A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED
WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54
KT. THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT
THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 65 KT. THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF
RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A
LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE
SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST
WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE
LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT
FLOODING. WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 22.5N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 22.8N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 22.8N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
west/carib.spin.already
Quoting 1690. CaribBoy:
THE BLOG IS SLOW, IT LOOKS LIKE MANY ARE BORED LIKE ME!

If you're so bored then why don't you just leave and not come back until you have something interesting to say. I'm sure most of us here are getting pretty annoyed with your constant complaining.
Quoting 1695. JrWeathermanFL:
Humberto and Ingrid were at one point predicted to become 100 mph, both stopped strengthening at 85mph, and both had trouble ever clearing out an eye as a hurricane...
As much as I'd LOVE a Cat. 2, I think Mexico's had enough..

Yeah time for a cat 5 in Florida lol
But on a serious note yeah it will change soon it will be the Caribbean islands and Florida
And I can certainly see 2-3 more named storm before the end of September

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS
SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE
LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60
KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE
LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.

WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS
DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF
LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS
A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

1702. flcanes
Ingrid is down to 75 mph....
If it was not for manuel, she might already be a major.
1703. flcanes
she was in the right place at the wrong time
Quoting 1703. flcanes:
she was in the right place at the wrong time
Which is good because Mexico don`t need a cat 2 or a major.
Well guys its up to the rest of the storms for this year to try and get to cat 2 and also for first major hurricane
Why is Invest 94 showing an image from December 31, 1969? Link
1707. GatorWX
Some of the aerial shots from Colorado are simply astounding. Those poor folks! I hope that dry Pacific air filters its way in.
Quoting 1706. goldenpixie1:
Why is Invest 94 showing an image from December 31, 1969? Link

Lol
Error on data btw didn't something in history not weather related happened in dec '69

And also looking on visible and rgb EX-Humberto/PRE-Humberto is moving S dead due S
Quoting 1703. flcanes:
she was in the right place at the wrong time


Link
From the FEMA daily briefing. Link

Colorado – Flash Flooding
Situation:
▲Widespread heavy rainfall expected through tonight, decreasing Monday; Flash Flood Watches in effect Impacts:
▲4 confirmed fatalities; 1 confirmed injury statewide ; 472 missing in Boulder County
▲26 shelters open with 1,250 occupants; 13,500+ residents evacuated statewide
▲19,258 homes, 1,697 commercial, 2,000 other minor structures threatened
▲2,694 homes, 509 commercial damaged; 1,502 homes, 25 commercial, 4,705 other minor structures destroyed Infrastructure/Utilities as of 2:00 am EDT:
▲5,652 (peak 16K) customers without power statewide (industry sources); 3,580 without natural gas in Boulder County
•Several water treatment plants compromised; boil water orders in effect for numerous counties
▲1 of 2 waste water treatment plants in Boulder now operational; assessments ongoing
▲Over 100 road closures reported by Colorado DOT; some Amtrak service cancelled
•FAA issued temporary flight restrictions (TFR) in Boulder County to allow search & rescue operations Isolated Communities
▲Cities of Jamestown, Gold Hill and Lyons remain cut off or limited access
▲Evacuation of Lyons completed with 2,000 evacuees sheltered in Longmont; evacuation of Estes Park ongoing
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


Ummmm, I need to make an appt with the eye doctor, cause I swear I think I'm seeing two storms this morning in the southwest GoM. That, or my puter is acting up badly. Anyone else having this same trouble?



1712. 62901IL
Quoting 1711. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


Ummmm, I need to make an appt with the eye doctor, cause I swear I think I'm seeing two storms this morning in the southwest GoM. That, or my puter is acting up badly. Anyone else having this same trouble?




You are seeing Ingrid, she just has 2 convective blobs.
Just shows you how useless the EPAC is ;)
If it wasn't for Manuel, who knows how strong Ingrid would be.

Im pretty sure the precursor to Cosme, affected the precursor to Barry. Barry would've had more than 1 advisory as a TD in the Caribbean and could've had more time to strengthen going into the Belize with a pontentially better structure when exiting into the BOC.

I don't remember if Ivo or Juliette messed with Fernand, but again Ivo and Fernand were double-punching Mexico

And Lorena at least was in the same vicinity as TD 8 when it was trying to form in the GOM

I remember at least 2 GOM invests that interacted with EPAC storms.
1714. GatorWX

Quoting 1708. wunderkidcayman:

Lol
Error on data btw didn't something in history not weather related happened in dec '69

And also looking on visible and rgb EX-Humberto/PRE-Humberto is moving S dead due S


Altamont concert took place in December '69...
You know, for a hurricane, Ingrid looks like crap.

1717. GatorWX
Quoting 1711. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


Ummmm, I need to make an appt with the eye doctor, cause I swear I think I'm seeing two storms this morning in the southwest GoM. That, or my puter is acting up badly. Anyone else having this same trouble?





Apparently my eyeglasses have been missing since last night.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1105 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-151545-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
1105 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
BROWARD COUNTY...SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1103 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MISSION BAY...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...
BOCA RATON EQUESTRIAN CENTER...
LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

1719. GatorWX
1720. IKE
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF
INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE.

........................

Yet they still have it as a hurricane.
Quoting 1699. Ameister12:

If you're so bored then why don't you just leave and not come back until you have something interesting to say. I'm sure most of us here are getting pretty annoyed with your constant complaining.


Man relax. And no... actually they recently told me that they are accustomed with them XD

But some obviously lack humor.

Quoting 1636. IKE:
Dew point here in the Florida panhandle is 64 this morning. Beautiful weather.


My dew point in Soo Cal is 41........but I understand how ya feel.......I lived in S Florida for 8 years.
Quoting 1712. 62901IL:

You are seeing Ingrid, she just has 2 convective blobs.


Thanks, 62. Whew! ;)


When does a hurricane have "two" convective blobs? That's unusual. Gator called attention to this late last night. It's something, either it's a decoupling or there's a new vortice trying to spin up.

Plus, a few bloggers indicated motion would follow that convective outflow northwest out ahead of the system. Right now, that flow, motion is towards TX.

And, I'm a tad further confused still from yesterday, looking at sfc maps and steering. There's still clearly weakness through TX.

1724. beell
Quoting 1716. FunnelVortex:
You know, for a hurricane, Ingrid looks like crap.



That's a pretty good current assessment!
Tired with grumpy bloggers as well lol.
1726. GatorWX
Quoting 1715. goldenpixie1:


Altamont concert took place in December '69...


STONES!!! Woodstock of the West, not! Good version of under my thumb, scratchy though. Slowed down to chill out the crowd. Like it!

1727. 62901IL
Quoting 1716. FunnelVortex:
You know, for a hurricane, Ingrid looks like crap.


Roger that.
Quoting 1720. IKE:
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF
INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE.

........................

Yet they still have it as a hurricane.


LOL. This is not a hurricane....
1729. VR46L
Quoting 1725. CaribBoy:
Tired with grumpy bloggers as well lol.


Pot Kettle Black...:P
Quoting 1724. beell:


That's a pretty good current assessment!



Beell, what the hay is going on? I'm not seeing a hard turn west.
1731. GatorWX
Quoting 1723. moonlightcowboy:


Thanks, 62. Whew! ;)


When does a hurricane have "two" convective blobs? That's unusual. Gator called attention to this late last night. It's something, either it's a decoupling or there's a new vortice trying to spin up.

Plus, a few bloggers indicated motion would follow that convective outflow northwest out ahead of the system. Right now, that flow, motion is towards TX.

And, I'm a tad further confused still from yesterday, looking at sfc maps and steering. There's still clearly weakness through TX.



All I'll say is, I'm more skeptical of the ridge building back completely today than yesterday. Still progressing west atm though. Hmmmm.....

1732. GatorWX
It's hard to argue with this however.

Humberto had flare up of convection at its center but the convection fell apart.

At least it is trying to regenerate.

Ingrid is...terrible looking o_0.Manual reminds me of a abusive husband constantly beating his wife.I guess 2013 is the year of Mexico.The U.S remains unscathed!.

Quoting 1731. GatorWX:


All I'll say is, I'm more skeptical of the ridge building back completely today than yesterday. Still progressing west atm though. Hmmmm.....



Ingrid getting a snack soon from the west? a festering mess!

Well now when we got a hurricane that looks ugly but not as bad as Ingrid then we could say "well at least it ain't as bad as hurricane Ingrid."

Hurricane?
Quoting 1732. GatorWX:
It's hard to argue with this however.




That's the easy part: arguing. I do that with myself all the time, sometimes others. ;P

The hard part is figuring out what we're actually seeing, cuz those models are not reflecting what I'm seeing.
Hurricane?? Pft...

1740. GatorWX
Quoting 1735. Funication:




New avatar? ;)
Quoting 1729. VR46L:


Pot Kettle Black...:P


Lol I concur ... I'm myself often grumpy
Quoting 1734. washingtonian115:
Ingrid is...terrible looking o_0.Manual reminds me of a abusive husband constantly beating his wife.I guess 2013 is the year of Mexico.The U.S remains unscathed!.


I don't think Ingrid is even a hurricane...
Quoting 1725. CaribBoy:
Tired with grumpy bloggers as well lol.
Cause yeah like I'm bored and yeah like I'm totally bored and bored with like bored and yeah did I mention I live on like a desert island?.And I'm bored with like boring stuff and like bored.
Quoting 1716. FunnelVortex:
You know, for a hurricane, Ingrid looks like crap.



2013 bust
1745. GatorWX
Quoting 1738. moonlightcowboy:



That's the easy part: arguing. I do that with myself all the time, sometimes others. ;P

The hard part is figuring out what we're actually seeing, cuz those models are not reflecting what I'm seeing.


Those models may also not be accounting for a TS, but an intensifying hurricane.

Quoting 1740. GatorWX:


New avatar? ;)
Figured out how to change it. found this happy turtle in the swamp
Quoting 1739. CaneHunter031472:
Hurricane?? Pft...



Honestly, I think Chantal looked better....
Quoting 1745. GatorWX:


Those models may also not be accounting for a TS, but an intensifying hurricane.



And, the model tracks are future estimates based on past tense data.
Quoting 1745. GatorWX:


Those models may also not be accounting for a TS, but an intensifying hurricane.


Hurricane?


Hahahaha hahahaha..... No....
Quoting 1734. washingtonian115:
Ingrid is...terrible looking o_0.Manual reminds me of a abusive husband constantly beating his wife.I guess 2013 is the year of Mexico.The U.S remains unscathed!.
I have yet to meet a pretty Ingrid.
1751. GatorWX
Click for loop...


Quoting 1747. FunnelVortex:


Honestly, I think Chantal looked better....
Does not make it less dangerous though
Beell? Where are you, Beell? You're the upper-air expert 'round here. What say ye? ;)


IMO, this track has TX written all over it.


The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 6 min
RT @larimersheriff: We now have 482 unaccounted people in Larimer County. We have added and removed people throughout the night. #coflood



Morning everybody, Looks like sheer is taking its toll on Ingrid. Western Caribbean looking wet this morning also.
Link

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1124 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY
BISCAYNE...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
KEY BISCAYNE...
MIAMI...
LITTLE HAVANA...
CORAL GABLES...
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL A/P...
MIAMI SPRINGS...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

1757. GatorWX
Quoting 1750. Abacosurf:
I have yet to meet a pretty Ingrid.


I always thought Ingrid Bergman was pretty. We never met though.

Manuel has made landfall.

1760. GatorWX
Quoting 1753. moonlightcowboy:
Beell? Where are you, Beell? You're the upper-air expert 'round here. What say ye? ;)


IMO, this track has TX written all over it.




You don't think that ridge is being squeezed west efficiently enough?
Quoting 1755. Saltydogbwi1:


Morning everybody, Looks like sheer is taking its toll on Ingrid. Western Caribbean looking wet this morning also.


Manuel is gonna hit land first and weaken, reducing shear on Ingrid, so Ingrid may still have a chance to look good.
But still, if you want to see something pretty form, your best bet is monitoring the regeneration of Humberto.
Quoting 1760. GatorWX:


You don't think that ridge is being squeezed west efficiently enough?


In a word, no. Water Vapor tells us where the flow, where the weakness is. That ridge is not building west.
Quoting 1759. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Manuel has made landfall.



The leech is now going to weaken rapidly, possibly allowing Ingrid to organize better.
1765. flcanes
Good and Bad news for ingrid
Good: Manuel is weakening
Bad: Manuel still exists
Quoting 1761. FunnelVortex:


Manuel is gonna hit land first and weaken, reducing shear on Ingrid, so Ingrid may still have a chance to look good.


True Ingrid still has a day or so left over water so strengthening is possible once Manuel weakens over land. Just how fast Manuel's thunderstorms die out will be key. Once Manuel stops throwing them up it will give Ingrid a chance to improve the upper atmosphere and a chance to strengthen.
1768. flcanes
According to the NHC:
Manuel is supposed to dissipate in 36 hours
Ingrid is supposed to make landfall in 24.
Quoting 1765. flcanes:
Good and Bad news for ingrid
Good: Manuel is weakening
Bad: Manuel still exists


Manuel is gonna die soon. And it's moisture will possibly be sucked into Ingrid.

I'm calling for an Issac-type rapid intensification just before landfall.
I guess everyone's at church this morning. Dead here. Dead.

Quoting 1731. GatorWX:


All I'll say is, I'm more skeptical of the ridge building back completely today than yesterday. Still progressing west atm though. Hmmmm.....

But, the time lapse still shows the ridge obviously building SW, which will be the kicker to pull Ingrid to the W. You can clearly see the clouds eroding from the TX/LA border westward to near Houston/Galveston.

Here's hoping that some of that moisture does get pulled up S and Central TX, though...any bit that busts that drought will help.
1772. 62901IL
xHumberto's losing it...
Quoting 1772. 62901IL:
xHumberto's losing it...


Conditions are expected to improve for it to reform.
Quoting 1771. AnthonyJKenn:

You can clearly see the clouds eroding from the TX/LA border westward to near Houston/Galveston.


I'm just not seeing that. :( That ridge will retreat with the weakness gradually moving eastwards. The weakness is clearly defined. The flow is clearly defined. Look at the flow in the northeast corner of this loop, and then in the southwest corner to see the northeasterly flow with the approaching Manuel. If Ingrid can hold it together (and I'm having my serious doubts), that flow would move towards TX into the flow of the weakness. May not be much of a storm left, but it sure might give TX the rain they need.

1775. GatorWX
Quoting 1763. moonlightcowboy:


In a word, no. Water Vapor tells us where the flow, where the weakness is. That ridge is not building west.


-24 hrs. 400-850


0 hrs.
1776. pottery
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
I guess everyone's at church this morning. Dead here. Dead.

Rest in Peace, my Friend .

:):))
MLC it's less than a day from making landfall in Mexico, I'd say it's safe bet it's not going anywhere near Texas. And Humberto has no thunderstorms near its center, that number is gonna be reduced.
1778. flsky
This might have been noted earlier - the computer model map WU has up on the tropical page is from Dec. 31, 1969!
THE WIND SHEAR COMING FROM Tropical Storm Manuel
Quoting 1775. GatorWX:


-24 hrs. 400-850


0 hrs.



Gator, I see what you're saying, and that's why yesterday I mentioned that charting, imo, in this instance, is simply not matching up with the loops. I give up. Y'all figure it out. I'm betting TX gets its rain.
Manuel made landfall.

Now the fun begins.

Conditions should vastly improve for Ingrid.
1782. pottery
Thunder Coming in from the East right now.
Yuh best had turn up yuh speakers.......


Quoting 1772. 62901IL:
xHumberto's losing it...


94L is still firing off very strong convection despite the shear.



Dying down for now but that has been the pattern and is not really surprising.
Quoting 1777. VAbeachhurricanes:
MLC it's less than a day from making landfall in Mexico, I'd say it's safe bet it's not going anywhere near Texas.


I wouldn't bet on it.
Lots of rain, wind, and a little bit of lightning.

Quoting 1744. CaribBoy:


2013 bust


Define what do you mean by "bust"? We've had 9 named storms so far with 2 1/2 months to go.
Quoting 1757. GatorWX:


I always thought Ingrid Bergman was pretty. We never met though.



Indeed she is!
1789. GatorWX
Quoting 1780. moonlightcowboy:



Gator, I see what you're saying, and that's why yesterday I mentioned that charting, imo, in this instance, is simply not matching up with the loops. I give up. Y'all figure it out. I'm betting TX gets its rain.


We will find out soon enough.

Ingrid looks like the Neil Young song " Piece of Crap "
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning Class!
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 44 s
New flash #flood warning until 12:45pm MDT for High Park burn scar in Larimer County, CO. http://wxch.nl/193pKNs #coflood
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-animated. gif

I am no expert and dont really qualify as an amatuer either, lol. But when i look at this loop it is almost as if the SE convection has taken over the storm. Question is would this create a new center and change steering?
Quoting 1783. Stoopid1:


94L is still firing off very strong convection despite the shear.



Dying down for now but that has been the pattern and is not really surprising.


94L?
Quoting 1774. moonlightcowboy:


I'm just not seeing that. :( That ridge will retreat with the weakness gradually moving eastwards. The weakness is clearly defined. The flow is clearly defined. Look at the flow in the northeast corner of this loop, and then with the flow with the approaching Manuel. If Ingrid can hold it together (and I'm having my serious doubts), that flow would move towards TX into the flow of the weakness. May not be much of a storm left, but it sure might give TX the rain they need.



Good morning from Central OK,

A bit more toasty today. The fetch of moisture from "los gemelos mal de Mexico" are to help enhance our chances for rain and make things feel a bit sticky. The front to the north of us expected to slowly crawl through the state and only be halfway through sometime late tonight/tomorrow morning. Hope that some of the moisture from "Los gemelos mal" falls out over Texas as well.

Since the ridge seems firmly established at the surface, and Ingrid suffering, she will have a hard time making a run for the border. Manuel is looking as if it wants to surf along the Pacific coastline, and vacation in the Baja peninsula. We'll see if he can pull it off.

Still, all in all, a bit of rain for Mexico. Last 24 hours:

Quoting 1796. VAbeachhurricanes:


94L?


Humberto was sent to the minors. :( Poor guy, what an embarrassment
Humberto is now moving N 0°
Ingrid was becoming naked but ow has a ball of convection building right on top of it now
W Carib AOI very interesting
After the sloppy Ingrid, is there anything on the horizon that we need to watch?
Quoting 1699. Ameister12:

If you're so bored then why don't you just leave and not come back until you have something interesting to say. I'm sure most of us here are getting pretty annoyed with your constant complaining.
Not bugging me much.

Besides, it suggests Caribboy still feels a sense of hopefulness despite the many previous disappointments. I can admire that amount of optimism...
Quoting 892. daddyjames:


Without the teens, perhaps a different story?


Actually I split over half the wood in the house though the kids like to do it. Most men in their 50s are stronger than most mid teen young men.
(we just get injured and heal very very slowly)


1803. Dakster
Quoting 1802. georgevandenberghe:


Actually I split over half the wood in the house though the kids like to do it. Most men in their 50s are stronger than most mid teen young men.
(we just get injured and heal very very slowly)




I agree and in my case it's 40's.