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Boulder's 1-in-100 Year Flood Diminishing; Ingrid a Dangerous Flood Threat for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:43 PM GMT on September 13, 2013

Colorado's epic deluge is finally winding down, as a trough of low pressure moves across the state and pushes out the moist, tropical airmass that has brought record-breaking rainfall amounts and flooding. Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least three people. The flood that swept down Boulder Creek into Boulder, Colorado was a 1-in-100 year event, said the U.S. Geological Survey. A flash flood watch continues through noon Friday in Boulder. According to the National Weather Service, Boulder's total 3-day rainfall as of Thursday night was 12.30". Based on data from the NWS Precipitation Frequency Data Server, this was a greater than 1-in-1000 year rainfall event. The city's previous record rainfall for any month, going back to 1897, was 9.59", set in May 1995. Some other rainfall totals through Thursday night include 14.60" at Eldorado Springs, 11.88" at Aurora, and 9.08" at Colorado Springs. These are the sort of rains one expects on the coast in a tropical storm, not in the interior of North America! The rains were due to a strong, slow-moving upper level low pressure system to the west of Colorado that got trapped to the south of an unusually strong ridge of high pressure over Western Canada. This is the same sort of odd atmospheric flow pattern that led to the most expensive flood disaster in Canadian history, the $5.3 billion Calgary flood of mid-June this summer. The upper-level low responsible for this week's Colorado flood drove a southeasterly flow of extremely moist tropical air from Mexico that pushed up against the mountains and was lifted over a stationary front draped over the mountains. As the air flowed uphill and over the front, it expanded and cooled, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver this morning continued to show levels of September moisture among the highest on record for the station, as measured by the total Precipitable Water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed. Four of the top eight all-time September highs for Precipitable Water since records began in 1948 have been recorded over the past two days:

1.33" 12Z September 12, 2013
1.31" 00Z September 12, 2013
1.24" 12Z September 13, 2013
1.23" 12Z September 10, 1980
1.22" 00Z September 2, 1997
1.21" 00Z September 7, 2002
1.20" 00Z September 13, 2013

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this year's flood compares to previous Colorado floods in his latest post.

A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. A torrent of water rushes alongside a swamped house following flash flooding near Left Hand Canyon, south of Lyons, Colo., Sept 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)



Figure 2. Observed rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 13 rain event. Rainfall amounts greater than 10" (pink colors) were indicated near Boulder. Image credit: NWS Denver.

Tropical Storm Ingrid a Dangerous Rainfall Threat for Mexico
Tropical Storm Ingrid, the ninth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, has formed in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Ingrid is the most dangerous Atlantic tropical cyclone of 2013 thus far, due to its rainfall potential. Ingrid is embedded in an exceptionally moist environment, and is already bringing heavy rains to the Mexican coast in Veracruz state, as seen on Mexican radar. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is not well-organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. However, the Friday morning hurricane hunter mission found 45 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade Ingrid. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is interfering with development, but ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F).


Figure 3. Percent chance of receiving more than 16" of rain during a five day period, from the Friday 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model for Tropical Storm Ingrid. More than 16" of rain are predicted for the Oaxaca and Tampico areas of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Forecast for Ingrid
The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and it won't take much additional rain to generate dangerous flash floods and mudslides. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If Ingrid intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. Ninety-E represents a threat to develop into a tropical depression in its own right; in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 70% for the disturbance, and predicted a north to northwest motion of the storm towards the coast. This morning's 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model predicted that a some areas of Mexico are at high risk of 16+ inches of rain due to the combined effects of Ingrid and 90E. The greatest danger is on the Pacific side in Oaxaca state, where the combined effects of the circulations of Ingrid and 90E will pull a flow of very moist air upwards over the mountains, creating torrential rains. All of the models predict a west-northwest to northwest track for Ingrid into Mexico, but heavy rains of 2 - 4" may also affect extreme South Texas by early next week.

Today is the 25th anniversary of the intensification of Hurricane Gilbert into the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic (at the time.) I was on the hurricane hunter flight into Gilbert that day, and will be posted an account of the mission later today.

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Patrap
Quoting 1498. pcola57:


Thanks Pat..
Now not so worried..
I hope he keeps in touch someway..
GB


He does.

We served together n NATO in the Mid 80's.

; )
1502. Patrap
1503. GetReal


From earlier this morning before Ingrid began the north drift.
Quoting 1465. pcola57:


Morning Citikatz..
I've been busy with stuff and now I see you said Gro is gone??
What the heck?

I am not sure the exact reason, I got in on the tailend of the discussion one afternoon at work. Gro's final post indicated health and personal reasons. Hopefully, he will be back later. Maybe next season?
At this time, I will be keeping a close eye on Ingrid as I do have family and friends in Texas (just in case the proposed path changes) and Corpus does not need another direct hit.
Thanks Daytona for the "Doom" cast! Great sense of humor which has been missing from our blog lately.
Luvtogolf..what did I say to offend and cause "poof"? I am concerned about this storm's potential strength and path. It WILL make landfall somewhere and I am concerned about damage and possible injuries and loss of life. Again, I would prefer a dangerous system to form out to sea and not make landfall anywhere.That was the intended meaning of my post and I have expressed this opinion off and on for several years now on this blog.
1505. 62901IL
Humberto has got to be dead by now..only a few tiny bands of convection remaining, and they are probably very warm cloud tops.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/image ry/rgb0-lalo.jpg
I would not rule out the possibility of Ingrid becoming the season's first major. Water temps certainly are well warm enough and beyond, shear seems reasonably low enough to allow this possibility as well. A category 1 to 2 hurricane is probably most reasonable as of now though.
1507. Hhunter
Quoting 1506. Jedkins01:
I would not rule out the possibility of Ingrid becoming the season's first major. Water temps certainly are well warm enough and beyond, shear seems reasonably low enough to allow this possibility as well. A category 2 hurricane is probably most reasonable as of now though.
Thinking 95k is within reach for Ingrid
1508. GetReal
Quoting 1501. Patrap:


He does.

We served together n NATO in the Mid 80's.

; )


I thought you guys served together in the Spanish American War in the same U.S. Cavalry regiment? ;)
Very cold cloud with Ingrid with a large ball of convection.
They might be packing some hurricane force winds probably by 11am or 2pm.

Tomorrow will probably see some RI as it ingest some moisture from the EPAC



Quoting 1505. 62901IL:
Humberto has got to be dead by now..only a few tiny bands of convection remaining, and they are probably very warm cloud tops.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/image ry/rgb0-lalo.jpg



its is dead AL, 09, 2013091412, , BEST, 0, 252N, 348W, 35, 1004, LO

1512. 62901IL
Quoting 1511. Tazmanian:



its is dead AL, 09, 2013091412, , BEST, 0, 252N, 348W, 35, 1004, LO


Buh-bye, Humberto! See you when you come back!
Quoting 1479. Stormlover16:

Does that mean that the eyewall is starting to close off?


The recent blog of convection is wrapping around the center so a ragged eyewall might be around the corner maybe some pinhole eye feature within the next few hours.
1515. pcola57
Quoting 1501. Patrap:


He does.

We served together n NATO in the Mid 80's.

; )


Very Good Pat..
I salute you both..
Pass on my best..
Marvin
1517. Patrap
1518. VR46L
GOM

NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vis_ir_background/goes
Quoting 1472. Patrap:





Pat....look at CLP5 again...haha!!
by looking at the rainbow of Ingrid and when I turn on the stn plt I noted that Ingrid is going off the nhc track
Pressure down to 988.2mb as they head eastward into the circulation. Winds in the western semicircle are no higher than 40kts.

135900 2029N 09431W 8430 01392 9882 +194 +182 237001 006 000 000 03
1522. Patrap
76F behind the front in NOLA.

Very nice morning here.
1523. pcola57
Wow..
Thats ALOT of moisture in this image for sure!!

Link

This red band (dry air) is associated with the flattend out/stalled out front across Texas. It will prevent Ingrid from going very far north. It will eventually back out and open the door to something possibly later on down the line.
1525. Patrap
I note the shift, but the front is going to push Ingrid West by 30 hours now.



1526. Patrap
Quoting 1522. Patrap:
76F behind the front in NOLA.

Very nice morning here.


78 here in Gautier MS. (Gulf Coast) very nice breeze with it as well. Perfect Jeep top down day.
1528. Hhunter
Quoting 1524. Sfloridacat5:
This red band (dry air) is associated with the flattend out/stalled out front across Texas. It will prevent Ingrid from going very far north.
until after the loop
Quoting 1525. Patrap:
I note the shift, but the front is going to push Ingrid West by 30 hours now.





I agree.
Surface winds 0 MPH . I wonder if a eye will soon pop out
Pressure down to 987.1mb.

140030 2034N 09430W 8432 01390 9871 +214 +157 083007 008 020 001 00

Impressive batch of winds as well.

140300 2042N 09430W 8424 01424 9933 +185 +185 103060 066 058 016 00
140330 2044N 09430W 8436 01419 9946 +180 +180 099073 076 057 025 00
140400 2045N 09430W 8433 01431 9960 +177 +177 096072 074 059 022 00
140430 2047N 09430W 8440 01438 9970 +176 +176 095065 069 056 019 00
140500 2049N 09431W 8430 01448 9977 +175 +175 095066 068 051 017 00

Still moving due north.
1532. Gearsts
Time: 14:04:00Z
Coordinates: 20.75N 94.5W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,431 meters (~ 4,695 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.0 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 96° at 72 knots (From the E at ~ 82.8 mph)
Air Temp: 17.7°C (~ 63.9°F)
Dew Pt: 17.7°C (~ 63.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 knots (~ 85.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 22 mm/hr (~ 0.87 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Dropsonde reported a 988mb pressure with 6kt surface winds.

000
UZNT13 KNHC 141407
XXAA 64148 99205 70945 08204 99988 26613 32506 00605 ///// /////
92585 25040 29510 85325 20013 26503 88999 77999
31313 09608 81358
61616 AF307 0710A INGRID OB 15
62626 CENTER MBL WND 32506 AEV 07520 DLM WND 30006 988843 WL150 3
3506 084 REL 2048N09453W 135847 SPG 2048N09453W 140048 =
XXBB 64148 99205 70945 08204 00988 26613 11917 24847 22850 20013
33843 19007
21212 00988 32506 11949 32005 22920 29512 33857 28503 44843 23002
31313 09608 81358
61616 AF307 0710A INGRID OB 15
62626 CENTER MBL WND 32506 AEV 07520 DLM WND 30006 988843 WL150 3
3506 084 REL 2048N09453W 135847 SPG 2048N09453W 140048 =
;
Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 20.48N 94.53W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 14:00:48Z

CENTER

988mb (Surface) 325° (from the NW) 6 knots (7 mph)
1535. centex
Looks like the front dissipates tomorrow.
Winds dropped off to 0mph when they recorded the lowest pressure. Looks like a rather decent size eye too.
Actually appears to be moving NNE. 76kt flight-level winds reported in the northern semicircle.

87mph flight level winds.
Quoting 1524. Sfloridacat5:
This red band (dry air) is associated with the flattend out/stalled out front across Texas. It will prevent Ingrid from going very far north. It will eventually back out and open the door to something possibly later on down the line.
Yes, I agree but If I lived in Brownsville I would be keen.
It almost spells out the path if you follow the line south of the dry air you pointed out. Also the clouds streaming north towards Texas fade on arrival. The signals all point N Mex.

I sure would like to see another pass of that SE side of the storm... Nice readings in there!
"2013 Atlantic Cape Verde Season" R.I.P.
Ingrid looks likes it wants too get stronger then the nhc has it getting all so the stronger it gets the more N it gos
1543. Hhunter
14:00:30Z 20.567N 94.500W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,390 meters
(~ 4,560 feet) 987.1 mb
(~ 29.15 inHg) - From 83° at 7 knots
(From the E at ~ 8.0 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 15.7°C
(~ 60.3°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.0
1544. Patrap
Looking at the pressure wind graph from The HH obs, we may have a GOM Hurricane now.

Good morning everybody!

Recon is finding some very impressive data. I would be very surprised if Ingrid doesn't become a hurricane sometime today.
Quoting 1538. CybrTeddy:
87mph flight level winds.


Recon is finding some strong winds they might go 75mph at 11am. But 70mph is a good bet.
Quoting 1545. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

Recon is finding some very impressive data. I would be very surprised if Ingrid doesn't become a hurricane sometime today.



its likey all ready a hurricane
Ingrid is now a Hurricane
Nine years ago today, Tropical Storm Jeanne was named...Little did we know...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM JEANNE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT...
FROM AFWA. RECON WILL REACH JEANNE AROUND 18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/10. THE
ADVISORY POSITION AS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION MAY JUST BE DUE TO
DISRUPTION OF THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION BY SOME OF THE LARGER
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME SHORTLY...BUT THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
SOUTH OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OWING TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. THE NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER
THAT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND
GFDL MODELS TURNING JEANNE MORE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS TRENDING MORE WESTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE
IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA TO
FLORIDA...WHICH SEPARATES T.S. JEANNE FROM HURRICANE IVAN. ONLY THE
GFS AND GFDL WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE LATER
PERIODS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE AND EVEN
BUILD IT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.

JEANNE IS CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ONLY
IMMEDIATE HINDERING INFLUENCE TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS DRY
AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL JEANNE PASSES OVER OR
NEAR PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONGER TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS
NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH
RESULTS IN 20-25 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY IS LEVELED OFF UNTIL 120 HOURS...WHEN THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.6N 63.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.3N 66.3W 55 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO
36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.2N 68.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.2N 71.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 24.5N 75.0W 70 KT
Quoting 1548. wunderkidcayman:
Ingrid s now a Hurricane



no its not nothing on the nhc site that says its a hurricane
1551. Patrap
Quoting 1541. HurriHistory:
"2013 Atlantic Cape Verde Season" R.I.P.


The Climo window on the CV seeds is closing and we shift now to the Western Caribbean and GOM.

2013 has plenty o' Mojo left to deliver.

Stand by, itsa gonna get Bumpy for a few days here.

Use you blogging reporting tools as a Hurricane in the GOM has to make landfall, so the troll-ism will come.
Quoting 1548. wunderkidcayman:
Ingrid s now a Hurricane


Not yet, 60kts still on the ATCF.
Quoting 1538. CybrTeddy:
87mph flight level winds.
Ramping up at a constant rate for 36 hours. Should continue for another 36 easy. Whats to stop it?
1554. Patrap
Quoting 1535. centex:
Looks like the front dissipates tomorrow.


Whenever Ingrid does her 'loop', that means sitting in place for at least a day, probably two. That could send quite a bit of moisture to TX while that's happening, depending on how far N she is.
1556. VR46L
Quoting 1552. CybrTeddy:


Not yet, 60kts still on the ATCF.



but with the recon and noaa flying a round out there they likey use that info
What's the flight-level reduction from 850mb?
1559. Patrap
Looking closely at the COC ,one can see her Breaking the frictional Bonds of the Mexican coast as she wobbles to and fro to the North.

the nhc may have too move the track a little more N
Looks like Joe B. nailed it again. Yesterday morning when the NHC was forecasting Ingrid to max out at 65mph, he was calling for a Cat 2, maybe Cat 3. Ingrid it well on it's way.
Quoting 1426. Hhunter:
Might get even more interesting. Bastardi just suggested in his morning update video that Ingrid may come ashore do a loop and come back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Then Ingrid could regenerate and head towards the west coast of Florida....... Plus still thinks could hit Mexico as CAT 2 or 3. Even states the south west turn could occur before landfall..... Loopy


I'm wondering what percentage of the time he is correct.
1563. GetReal


It'll be interesting to see how long this general north movement will last.
Flight #8 is en route to Ingrid.

Tropical Atlantic live recon
1565. Patrap
Quoting 1562. SecretStormNerd:


I'm wondering what percentage of the time he is correct.




LOL


Quoting 1557. Tazmanian:



but with the recon and noaa flying a round out there they likey use that info


True 70 mph is a safe bet. the next advisory should upgrade it.
1567. Patrap
Dvorak shows a stronger system

Quoting 1566. Hurricanes305:


True 70 mph is a safe bet. the next advisory should upgrade it.



all so the nhc may have too move the track a little more N
Quoting 1558. MiamiHurricanes09:
What's the flight-level reduction from 850mb?


Reduce it by 15% or so to get surface winds.
Well, if you are going to break a record...


Not quite seeing the water making it downstream yet, and it is running under the current model prediction, but don't let that fool you. Many times, we'll see crests slow down during high flow events.
Quoting 1558. MiamiHurricanes09:
What's the flight-level reduction from 850mb?



Hurricane by 11 am?
.
Link
I think Mother Nature is givin' us a early Christmas present with Ingrid...
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2013
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 13:59:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°30'N 94°30'W (20.5N 94.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 202 miles (325 km) to the NNW (330°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,324m (4,344ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WSW (241°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 314° at 43kts (From the NW at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WSW (243°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (359°) from the flight level center at 14:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the WSW (239°) from the flight level center
1576. Patrap
Quoting 1571. nrtiwlnvragn:



Perfect. So yeah, the 76kt flight-level reading would correspond to about 60kts.
Quoting 1567. Patrap:
Dvorak shows a stronger system



Looks like a push to the NW as well
Quoting 1562. SecretStormNerd:


I'm wondering what percentage of the time he is correct.


He's the best forecaster on the planet. That is a fact. Got it!
Quoting 1564. Stoopid1:
Flight #8 is en route to Ingrid.

Tropical Atlantic live recon
Sweet!
1583. Patrap
One can see a lot of Wobbling as the coc torques around but the NHC has it,

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 95.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT

1584. Hhunter
Bastardi....

Ingrid Comments
September 14 09:29 AM

I know some of you are saying.. Ignorant comments.. ha ha

Ingrid is moving as we thought.. off to the north ( actually northeast) and may be starting a giant loop that will take it into Mexico probably more toward Tampico, but then a large part of the system will remain over the water and may mean a new storm in the southern gulf mid and late week. This could be a major disaster for central Mexico as a slow moving hurricane attacks from the East and then hangs around. Could see rainfall amounts to 30 inches with this. I like our cat 2 or 3 idea, the latest ECMWF forecast now has it becoming a hurricane ( it likely already is)

Point: Still a miss for Texas and the energy concerns..
1585. Patrap
Quoting 1581. luvtogolf:


He's the best forecaster on the planet. That is a fact. Got it!


If you's say's so padna'

LOL
1587. Patrap
Do you folks tweet this entry to JB'S Twit feed ?, cuz I do, every time I see one here.
1588. Ed22
Strengthening tropical storm Ingrid could very well be category 1 hurricane a 85 mph, this system could very well be major hurricane at landfall at least 125 MPH. Its seems like nothing is stopping this cyclone rapidly strengthening, looks very, very, very impressive to me.
Just for fun, here's the result of the interaction of ex-Gabrielle and the Polar jet, NW of Scotland tomorrow:


Warnings in effect for Ireland and much of the UK:

Link

Link
1590. Patrap
The slow movment mignt keep Ingrid from strengthning . Upwelling is always a problem for slow movers it was the downfall of Major Huricane Mitch
1592. Hhunter
Quoting 1587. Patrap:
Do you folks tweet this entry to JB'S Twit feed ?, cuz I do, every time I see one here.
Good, Patrap you should do that!
I have a few questions, not time-concerning:
1. What is the strongest hurricane to not have an eye?
2. Humberto is predicted to regenerate into a tropical cyclone. This will be the third time this kind of thing happened. What is the record for most storms regenerating in a season?
The next advisory could likely say
"AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND INGRID A LOT STRONGER. INGRID IS NOW A HURRICANE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUSED FOR PARTS OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

what ya'll think
Quoting 1594. wunderkidcayman:
The next advisory could likely say
"AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND INGRID A LOT STRONGER. INGRID IS NOW A HURRICANE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUSED FOR PARTS OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

what ya'll think




I really wish you would not do that it would make it think it would be for real
Quoting 1594. wunderkidcayman:
The next advisory could likely say
"AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND INGRID A LOT STRONGER INGRID IS NOW A HURRICANE HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUSED FOR PARTS OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

what ya'll think


Unless there's some pressing last minute data I think they'll go with the ATCF report of 60kt for this advisory.
Actual advisory headline for Humberto for 11am

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...EXPECTED TO REGENERATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
.
1599. Patrap
Quoting 1595. Tazmanian:




I really wish you would not do that it would make it think it would be for real


Indeed, why they do it, is obvious though Taz.
Quoting 1595. Tazmanian:




I really wish you would not do that it would make it think it would be for real

You need to read what written and stop trying to kill your self

Quoting 1596. Stoopid1:


Unless there's some pressing last minute data I think they'll go with the ATCF report of 60kt for this advisory.

How about recon data

Advisory will be 60kts. No reason to place it any higher.

We'll see what happens when the next recon plane arrives...or if an eye feature begins to clear out on satellite imagery.
Quoting 1600. wunderkidcayman:

You need to read what written and stop trying to kill your self


How about recon data







you been reported for what you this said too me you sould all so be ban for what you this said was not a nic thing too say at all
Quoting 1600. wunderkidcayman:

You need to read what written and stop trying to kill your self


How about recon data

Nothing recon reported suggests winds higher than 60kts.
Ok nope NHC says
...INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
Almost there should be by 2pm then
Quoting 1600. wunderkidcayman:

You need to read what written and stop trying to kill your self


How about recon data



Recon was what I was referring to. I haven't seen winds from recon yet that quite support hurricane strength.
Hey everybody look at Humberto he pretty much sums up the 2013 hurricane season!
1607. hydrus
Quoting 1583. Patrap:
One can see a lot of Wobbling as the coc torques around but the NHC has it,

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 95.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT



So I think it's safe to say:

A. She's not going to get stuck in the BOC, and

B. Manuel is not having all that much effect on her, other than feeding her.
Quoting 1601. MiamiHurricanes09:
Advisory will be 60kts. No reason to place it any higher.

We'll see what happens when the next recon plane arrives...or if an eye feature begins to clear out on satellite imagery.
:(
Quoting 1602. Tazmanian:






you been reported for what you this said too me

Taz you have been flagged for flagging me STOP TRYING TO BE BLOG POLICE
You need to take what I said to heart stop calm yourself and read what's there before going gun ho
1611. GatorWX
Quoting 1587. Patrap:
Do you folks tweet this entry to JB'S Twit feed ?, cuz I do, every time I see one here.


It's tweet Pat jeez! ;)

Getting that wobbly, eye forming look imo.
1612. Patrap


...INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
10:00 AM CDT Sat Sep 14
Location: 20.6°N 94.5°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Yeah, not sure I can agree with Avila here. Would be hard to believe that the cyclone maintains a 70kt intensity for a period of 36+ hours.

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

000
WTNT35 KNHC 141445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY. ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL NOT REACH THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA UNTIL MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. INGRID IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS
INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON
THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES
PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO
MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD
TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL
MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO
VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
1617. Patrap
1618. GatorWX
NHC says shear is going to stop it from becoming much stronger.. interesting

000
WTNT45 KNHC 141445
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS
INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON
THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES
PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO
MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD
TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL
MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO
VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 1610. wunderkidcayman:

Taz you have been flagged for flagging me STOP TRYING TO BE BLOG POLICE
You need to take what I said to heart stop calm yourself and read what's there before going gun ho


Most people here have Taz on ignore already...
Quoting 1614. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, not sure I can agree with Avila here. Would be hard to believe that the cyclone maintains a 70kt intensity for a period of 36+ hours.

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH


Shear will increase some.

CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME.
Quoting 1555. redwagon:


Whenever Ingrid does her 'loop', that means sitting in place for at least a day, probably two. That could send quite a bit of moisture to TX while that's happening, depending on how far N she is.
Quoting 1614. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, not sure I can agree with Avila here. Would be hard to believe that the cyclone maintains a 70kt intensity for a period of 36+ hours.

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

I see it going up what about you
1627. GetReal
ingrid will be a total mexico storm
What are the models seeing that is preventing Ingrid from pushing beyond 75 MPH?  I dont understand it, we already have a 70 MPH storm that is continuing to become better organized, and other than upwelling (which shouldnt be an issue in this case)...I dont see anything to prevent it from continuing to get stronger...

Yet models just dont want to latch on to her true intensity.


000
FONT15 KNHC 141445
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 5 30 52 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 3 15 35 22 NA
TROPICAL STORM 26 41 47 50 25 15 NA
HURRICANE 74 58 49 30 10 11 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 69 49 40 24 7 8 NA
HUR CAT 2 5 7 7 5 2 3 NA
HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 1 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 30KT 20KT NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 4(21) X(21)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 5(31) 6(37) X(37)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

LA PESCO MX 34 2 4( 6) 14(20) 20(40) 11(51) 5(56) X(56)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14)
LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

TAMPICO MX 34 2 4( 6) 20(26) 21(47) 13(60) 3(63) X(63)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

TUXPAN MX 34 3 4( 7) 11(18) 8(26) 10(36) 2(38) X(38)
TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

VERACRUZ MX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 4(14) 4(18) X(18)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

FRONTERA MX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10)

MERIDA MX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1632. Patrap
Shear, read the frigging advisory.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GONZO upper level recon

I don't get it. The link to Discussion #9 leads to discussion #8. Is it just me?
Quoting 1629. RyanSperrey:
What are the models seeing that is preventing Ingrid from pushing beyond 75 MPH?  I dont understand it, we already have a 70 MPH storm that is continuing to become better organized, and other than upwelling (which shouldnt be an issue in this case)...I dont see anything to prevent it from continuing to get stronger...

Yet models just dont want to latch on to her true intensity.
I think they're overdoing the upper-level wind forecast. The cyclone supposedly has over 20kts of shear aloft...but it certainly doesn't appear to be struggling with upper-level winds on satellite imagery.

Quoting 1632. Patrap:
Sheer, read the frigging advisory.
First off, calm down...damn.

Second, where is the sheer coming from?  I dont particularly see any real threat of high end sheer.
Shear comes from outflow of TS Manuel.
1639. Patrap
1640. GetReal


I'm going with a position of 20.4N & 94.5W.
1642. Hhunter
Link

Got to say I am stunned..LOL
1643. yqt1001
Quoting 1635. MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they're overdoing the upper-level wind forecast. The cyclone supposedly has over 20kts of shear aloft...but it certainly doesn't appear to be struggling with upper-level winds on satellite imagery.


They are expecting shear to increase to 30kts in about 24 hours.
Have there even been two storms that close together before??
Fun fact: the Atlantic Basin has accumulated more ACE in the past four days than it did in the previous 102.
1646. barbamz
Fresh BBC weather video with a more northernly track of Ingrid (northern Mexiko, southern border of Texas) and an update on Man-yi, heading straight towards Japan:

Tropical Storm update
BBC weather video, 14 September 2013 Last updated at 15:39
Stav Danaos has more on the tropical storm brewing in the Pacific and takes a look at the impacts of TS Ingrid which has brought heavy rain to parts of Mexico.
1647. Patrap
Try a WV Loop

The Shear is most obvious there usually.

Quoting 1636. RyanSperrey:

First off, calm down...damn.

Second, where is the sheer coming from?  I dont particularly see any real threat of high end sheer.


Manuel I guess....seems like they think it's going to start making an impact.
Well...

Quoting 1621. RufusBaker:


Most people here have Taz on ignore already...

Really!!! Wow now I kinda feel sorry for TAZ
1651. Hhunter
Link I am again stunned! This can't be? or can it......
1652. Patrap


I live in a desert, that's obvious XD
1654. ncstorm
Quoting 1641. wunderkidcayman:
TAz you have been flagged and flagged again look just sit out take a break and stop trying to police you can come back later when the TWO comes out by that time maybe a new advisory could be out and so you would miss the action on the blog


You should probably do the same AND modify your comment you wrote to Taz..

Good morning everyone!
Quoting 1647. Patrap:
Try a WV Loop

The Shear is most obvious there usually.



I'm not seeing any indication of shear here?
LOL at the Taz and WKC fight.
Quoting 1645. Neapolitan:
Fun fact: the Atlantic Basin has accumulated more ACE in the past four days than it did in the previous 102.

Well isn't that obvious

Quoting 1649. CaribBoy:
Well...


:) looks like a beautiful day go to the beach carry an ice cold beer and relax don't worry mate you time will come
Quoting 1657. MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL at the Taz and WKC fight.



guss you can call it a fight he started it
Quoting Neapolitan:
Fun fact: the Atlantic Basin has accumulated more ACE in the past four days than it did in the previous 102.


Rest of tropical atl is about to come to a halt with development shifting close to home.
Quoting 1551. Patrap:


The Climo window on the CV seeds is closing and we shift now to the Western Caribbean and GOM.

2013 has plenty o' Mojo left to deliver.

Stand by, itsa gonna get Bumpy for a few days here.

Use you blogging reporting tools as a Hurricane in the GOM has to make landfall, so the troll-ism will come.


Man it's a BORING Bay of Campeche year
1663. Hhunter
Link

loopy
Quoting 1659. wunderkidcayman:

Well isn't that obvious


:) looks like a beautiful day go to the beach carry an ice cold beer and relax don't worry mate you time will come


Yes gorgeous weather right now.
Quoting 1658. Bobbyweather:

Whoa, Taz, that's just too much. Calm down.


You really had to quote that?
1666. Patrap
Quoting a Cussing post will get you a bann along side the offender, fo sho'
1667. GatorWX
The sheer presence of expanding deep convection over and near the center seems to indicate shear is lower than what ships has forecast.





It certainly ain't 15-25 kts, maybe 10-15 kts. My guess is closer to 10 kts near the center and more so the further north you go.
Quoting 1614. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, not sure I can agree with Avila here. Would be hard to believe that the cyclone maintains a 70kt intensity for a period of 36+ hours.

INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH


Avila sure has been ultra-conservative: first Ingrid doesn't get out of the BOC, now she's stuck at 70kt for the rest of her life... real downer for a TXcaster.
Quoting 1657. MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL at the Taz and WKC fight.


of all the bloggers to go at each other...
1674. Patrap
Stop the flaming or permanent wu-cations may be dolled out.


Quoting 1651. Hhunter:
Link I am again stunned! This can't be? or can it......
You're apparently one of those easily-stunned by cherry-picked, presented-out-of-context, highly manipulated "facts", aren't you?

Helpful hint: you'll learn ever-so-much-more about science if you'll spend less time perusing anti-science sites such as Morano's CD. Know what I mean, Vern? ;-)
Quoting 1642. Hhunter:
Link

Got to say I am stunned..LOL


All I'm going to say about this is LOL. Big Al must be sayin "ha ha fool ya"
1677. Patrap
20132013


Recovery? R-i-g-h-t..............
Quoting 1660. Tazmanian:



guss you can call it a fight he started it
CHILDREN GO TO YOUR ROOMS; YOU ARE GROUNDED!
1679. guygee
I checked the Bremen AMSR-2 sea ice map for the Arctic Ocean. I don't think the NE passage has ever been so clear of ice, at least in the satellite era. I wanted to see what they had to say at the National Snow and Ice Data Center,
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
What I got was this message:

NSIDC's Web site is currently unavailable because of severe weather and flooding. We expect to be online again this Monday, 16 September, around noon (USA Mountain Time). We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you.
Yeah, that 80 mph peak isn't going to turn out. Shear was already expected to increase according to the ECMWF and GFS but it hasn't.
1681. 7544
Quoting 1563. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to see how long this general north movement will last.gemcocould it then jo nne hmmmh
1682. Patrap
Tropical Storm 10L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2013 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 20:31:30 N Lon : 94:31:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 982.5mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.2 4.3

Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.7 degrees


am getting back too the weather now

Quoting 1678. sebastianflorida:
CHILDREN GO TO YOUR ROOMS; YOU ARE GROUNDED!



LOL LOL LOL
Quoting 1653. CaribBoy:
I live in a desert, that's obvious XD


We sale the Sun For FREE !!!
In exchange, we want heavy rain!
Why do some of the models have it go due north - up to S TX? Do they not recognize the front?
1687. VR46L
Quoting 1674. Patrap:
Stop the flaming or permanent wu-cations may be dolled out.




It would not be a caution then ?

anyway

1688. GetReal
Quoting 1680. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yeah, that 80 mph peak isn't going to turn out. Shear was already expected to increase according to the ECMWF and GFS but it hasn't.
You mean it will be higher, or lower than 80?
1691. GetReal
Quoting 1678. sebastianflorida:
CHILDREN GO TO YOUR ROOMS; YOU ARE GROUNDED!


and unplug the internet!!!
Quoting 1689. interstatelover7165:
You mean it will be higher, or lower than 80?

Higher.
1693. GatorWX
Annual deviations from long term average. A good thing for now. Not necessarily a sign of things to come I'm afraid.



Espanya aquí vinc, al costat d'una bonica noia! Feliç sóc jo!

...and I get a hurricane to look at for the time being.
1694. VR46L
Quoting 1690. Neapolitan:
2013

2013

2013


Wow !!

Those Ace figures this year ... ya would never think we are on storm 9....
No doubt in my mind that this will be a hurricane by days end.
When will recon be there?
Quoting 1695. CybrTeddy:
No doubt in my mind that this will be a hurricane by days end.



I think it could get two 120mph
1698. barbamz
Quoting 1696. HurricaneCamille:
When will recon be there?


Recon already is there but encircling the center, not passing.

Quoting 1694. VR46L:


Wow !!

Those Ace figures this year ... ya would never think we are on storm 9....
Yeah, pretty amazing to have an average ACE around 2.0 per storm. Of course, a major storm or two can cause those numbers to skyrocket--for instance, there were days in 2010 when ACE shot up by more than 11 points--but, as it looks today, a below-average season (in terms of ACE, not number of named storms) seems likely.
10am/11 east updated cone
Quoting 1696. HurricaneCamille:
When will recon be there?
The next NOAA plane:

FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 43--
A. 14/2100Z
B. NOAA3 0910A INGRID
C. 14/1800Z
D. 20.9N 95.8W
E. 14/2030Z TO 14/2330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

The next TEAL plane:

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 70--
A. 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1010A INGRID
C. 14/2100Z
D. 21.3N 96.0W
E. 14/2300Z TO 15/0300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

The first one should be getting there around 5p.m. EDT and the second one around 8p.m. EDT.
Notice how Manuel is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning while the landfall for Ingrid has been pushed back significantly to Tuesday morning. It does not make logical sense for Ingrid to be sheared after tomorrow morning, if its even going to be, since Manuel will be inland by then.

This isn't going to be a 70kt peak, mark my words.
Does anyone have shear maps for the BOC?
I like too say sorry too the hole blog for that little out burst did not mean too went that get out of hand



What level are they at? Very light upper level winds on Ingrids south and east sides.

Quoting 1702. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Notice how Manuel is expected to make landfall tomorrow morning while the landfall for Ingrid has been pushed back significantly to Tuesday morning. It does not make logical sense for Ingrid to be sheared after tomorrow morning, if its even going to be, since Manuel will be inland by then.

This isn't going to be a 70kt peak, mark my words.
Marked. ;)
why do they have a 7 hour gap in times that recon is going to be in the center of the storm. I guess the only way for a Hurricane by 2 PM is if an eye starts to form
Quoting 1705. ILwthrfan:
What level are they at? Very light winds on Ingrids South and east sides.

It's a mission collecting upper air data.

F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
Quoting 1707. Thundercloud01221991:
why do they have a 7 hour gap in times that recon is going to be in the center of the storm. I guess the only way for a Hurricane by 2 PM is if an eye starts to form



they likey have re ful up and head back out and that takes time
Acording to dropsondes being dropped TS winds extend outwards to a great distance .
Quoting 1706. MiamiHurricanes09:
Marked. ;)


There will be a lag time (12-24 hrs)for that outflow to die off as the cyclone degenerates though. So even after landfall, Ingrid will be still feeling the outflow for a marked amount time after, though gradually diminishing in the time frame.
Ingrid wind speed estimates (10am central time)

Today's Gonzo proposed flight pattern


Quoting 1708. MiamiHurricanes09:
It's a mission collecting upper air data.

F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


So far all readings less than 15 knots for the most part. Thanks for the info.
Link
Loop d Loop coming more into play. Wow...tons of moisture for Mex.
Quoting 1695. CybrTeddy:
No doubt in my mind that this will be a hurricane by days end.


I think the reason for her slow speed is all the mass she's attaining from Manual (thanks, amigo!) but like Pat said, once she breaks the frictional bonds of the coast and can tighten up, she's going to go from cute to scary within 4 or 5 hours. I expect an intensity update soon.
1717. ncstorm

A man walks through a flooded street during heavy rains caused by Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Gulf port city of Veracruz, Mexico, Friday Sept. 13., 2013. Mexican authorities rushed to evacuate neighborhoods located near riverbanks in eight Veracruz townships as Ingrid lashed the coast with heavy rains, threatening more damage in a state where landslides and flooding have killed dozens of people in recent weeks. (AP Photo/Felix Marquez)



Tropical Storm Ingrid strengthening off Mexico
By RODRIGO SOBERANES SANTIN
%u2014 Sep. 14 10:48 AM EDT


MIAMI (AP) %u2014 Tropical Storm Ingrid is becoming a bit stronger off Mexico's Gulf coast, with forecasters predicting further increases in speed and a possible hurricane warning.

The National Hurricane Center said early Saturday that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). It's about 130 miles (205 kilometers) northeast of Veracruz and 195 miles (310 kilometers) east-southeast of Tuxpan.

A hurricane watch is in effect north of Cabo Rojo to La Pesca. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Coatzacoalcos to Cabo Rojo.

Off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Manuel has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph). It's 150 miles (245 kilometers) off Lazaro Cardenas and 255 miles (410 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Acapulco to Manzanillo.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Humberto swirls in the Atlantic, far from land, and is expected to become a remnant later Saturday.
1719. VR46L
Quoting 1703. all4hurricanes:
Does anyone have shear maps for the BOC?


img src="">
Quoting 1677. Patrap:
20132013


Recovery? R-i-g-h-t..............


Gotta start somewhere. Or else it is over.
Quoting 1719. VR46L:


img src="">


Go by the RECON, those maps are not very accurate for this case.
Well, Ingrid strengthened quickly! I wouldn't be surprised if Ingrid made a run for a Cat 2 hurricane. I really hope it doesn't do too much damage or take any lives, especially with all that rain!
Quoting 1686. tater5500:
Why do some of the models have it go due north - up to S TX? Do they not recognize the front?
...The front will move north and east
Quoting 1651. Hhunter:
Link I am again stunned! This can't be? or can it......


It is true but the denialist will say it isn't so.
1725. sar2401
I already have all of the people who think they are blog police on ignore. I you feel you really must reply to them, it would help if you removed their message text from your reply. I can only take so many heartburn pills in a day. :-)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I guess once the HH are to the N of Ingrid we will know how much she is sheared looking at the current dropsond data the shear is helping her if its shear that we are seeing
I thought I read a bulletin from the NHC that Ingrid was a hurricane. Oh, that was WKC producing a fake one.
Moving due north.

1730. barbamz
Numbers of unaccounted people are still rising.

Live coverage 7news


Flood-weary Colorado awaits more rain; 218 people remain unaccounted for
By Ben Brumfield and Nick Valencia, CNN
September 14, 2013 -- Updated 1423 GMT (2223 HKT)

Last day total precipitation



Would be a good thing that this debilitates....

Very interesting clash of forces and variables around Ingrid....

1733. Thrawst
.
1734. sar2401
Quoting barbamz:
Numbers of unaccounted people are still rising.

Live coverage 7news


Flood-weary Colorado awaits more rain; 218 people remain unaccounted for
By Ben Brumfield and Nick Valencia, CNN
September 14, 2013 -- Updated 1423 GMT (2223 HKT)

Last day total precipitation




Hi Barb. From my experience in emergency management, the vast majority of those "missing" are only missing because their families or friends don't know where they are. One of the first things to fail in an area-wide disaster is the cell phone system. Since Boulder is a big college town, many of the students are kind of befuddled about what to do if their cell phones don't work. I imagine that Verizon and AT&T are bringing in, or already have on scene, their disaster satellite trailers. These allow a limited number of people to use their cell phones per hour by using their satellite system rather than the normal cell phone over the air towers. Once people are able to use their cell phones, the numbers of missing will go down drastically. We had over 300 missing after the Oakland Hills firestorm, and that ended up with 25 of those missing actually being dead. It won't be that many in Colorado, I hope, but there are lots of people who live in really isolated places by choice, and it will take a number of days to reach some of those areas and confirm their status.
It has to be said..
"I think I see a eye!" :)
Quoting 1397. pcola57:


Gulf Current-

From Wiki..

"A parent to the Florida Current, the Loop Current is a warm ocean current that flows northward between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, loops east and south before exiting to the east through the Florida Straits and joining the Gulf Stream. Serving as the dominant circulation feature in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Loop Currents transports between 23 and 27 sverdrups[1] and reaches maximum flow speeds of 1.5 to 1.8 meters/second.[2]"

Link

To address Your next point..
There is very little steering air flow and shear at the moment and these storms being heat seeking engines that convert that energy , seems to me,the Loop Current attraction, to be a likely source for Ingrid after cooling off the BOC for several days and up welling causing it to to suffer temp drop as that area lays in a part of the gulf that the Gulf Current,or more correctly Loop Current, has very little influence..

Like I said in my post..
Agree or dis-agree..
It's just my Opinion.. :)



Again, tropical cyclones are steered by rivers of air in the atmosphere, not ocean currents.
1737. GatorWX
Morning everyone!

On to the next.



Off to Spain!! I'll post pictures on my blog in a few days if anyone is interested. Keep it real, ; )
1738. GatorWX
Forecast for Barcelona:

Mid 70's/mid 60's, other than Tues @ 40%, no chance of rain. Yeeeah! San Diego-ish. See ya!