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Hurricane Season is Half Over; Will it Remain Quiet?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013

September 10 marks the traditional halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first half of the hurricane season of 2013 is making its mark in the history books as one of the least active such periods on record. Going back to before when the Hurricane Hunters first began flying in 1944, there has been only one hurricane season that made it past the half-way point without a hurricane forming: the El Niño year of 2002, when Hurricane Gustav formed at 8 am EDT on September 11. Tropical Storm Humberto is looking poised to become a hurricane later today, and 2013 will likely end up ranking in 2nd place for latest formation of the season's first hurricane, going back to 1941. Here are the Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1941 in which the first hurricane did not form until after September 7:

2002: September 11, Hurricane Gustav
2013: September 10+ (Nothing yet)
1984: September 10, Hurricane Diana
2001: September 8, Hurricane Erin

Prior to 1944, there were four hurricane seasons that had the first hurricane form after September 15:

1914: No hurricanes in the Atlantic
1907: No hurricanes in the Atlantic
1905: October 8
1941: September 16

According to NHC, August 10 is the average date the first Atlantic hurricane arrives, and the season's third hurricane usually develops by September 9. So, assuming Humberto makes it to hurricane status, we are two hurricanes behind the average season pace. An average season brings six hurricanes, two of them being intense hurricanes.

Remarkably low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) so far in 2013
The first half of 2013's hurricane season had one of the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) totals on record for the Atlantic. ACE is calculated as the square of the wind speed every 6 hours for every named storm with at least 40 mph sustained winds (scaled by a factor of 10,000 for usability.) Since the damage potential of a hurricane is proportional to the square or cube of the maximum wind speed, ACE is not only a measure of tropical cyclone activity, but also a measure of the damage potential. During the 20-year period 1981 - 2010, the Atlantic averaged 104 ACE units, and the 20-year average ACE through September 9 was 50. Through September 9 of 2013, we've managed just 9.6 ACE units, about 20% of average. Since the current active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, no other year had a lower ACE by this point in the year. Since reliable satellite-based ACE records began in 1966, there have been seven years with comparable levels of ACE by this point in the season. Four of these years were El Niño years, when we expect hurricane activity to be low due to high wind shear. The other years had August ocean temperatures in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, from 10 - 20°N, 20 - 70°W) that were cooler than in 2013, though the ocean temperatures in 1988 were only 0.1°C cooler than in 2013. This year's combination of no El Niño, warm MDR SSTs, and an exceptionally low first half of the season ACE is thus an event unparalleled in the historical record, going back to 1966.


Figure 1. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) totals for the first half of the Atlantic hurricane season, through September 9, 2013, were among the lowest on record, since reliable satellite data began in 1966. Other years with low first-half-of-the-season ACE occurred during El Niño years, or when August sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were cooler.

Forecast for the next two weeks: below average activity
The main reason for the quiet first half of the season has been the large amount of dry, stable air over the Atlantic. The primary source of this dry air has been the Sahara desert of Africa. However, dry air from Northeast Brazil may also have contributed, argues wunderblogger Lee Grenci. That region of the country experienced a record $8.3 billion drought in 2013--the most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history. Even with all the dry air we've seen over the Atlantic in 2013, it is really remarkable that activity has been so low when all of the other factors--lack of an El Niño, wind shear near climatological averages, an active African Monsoon spitting out plenty of tropical waves, and above average ocean temperatures--have favored development. Instability increased over the tropical Atlantic over the last few days of August and the first week of September, thanks to the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. Instability was also boosted by a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that brought rising air to the Atlantic. This increase in instability helped the formation of Gabrielle, Humberto, and Tropical Depression Eight, and may help boost the odds of a potential tropical storm forming this weekend over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. The influence of the MJO is fading over the Atlantic, though. Beginning next week, we will be entering a phase of the MJO where it will likely bring more stable, sinking air to the Tropical Atlantic. This suppressed phase of the MJO could last through the first week of October. The models are also pointing to another outbreak of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) coming off the coast of Africa this weekend, which will keep the Tropical Atlantic dryer than usual next week. The steering pattern over the next two weeks features a strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast, giving high odds that any hurricane that manages to form and approach the U.S. will recurve out to sea, without affecting any land areas. So keep your fingers crossed--we're doing unusually well for this point in the hurricane season, with no landfalling hurricanes, and it looks like we have above average chances of keeping it that way deep into September.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2013 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was been much lower than average during most of August, primarily due to outbreaks of dry air from Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Low instability reduces the potential for tropical storm formation. During the last few days of August and the first week of September, an MJO event boosted instability. The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. When the area of increased thunderstorms associated with the MJO is located in the Western Hemisphere, it brings rising air over the Tropical Atlantic, increasing instability. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Be prepared for a destructive hurricane in 2013
Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to ruin an otherwise quiet hurricane season. Recall that last year's worst storm--Hurricane Sandy--didn't occur until the third week of October. Another thing to consider: the season with the greatest similarity to what we've seen during the first half of the 2013 season was 1988. That year, we also had unusual quietness before September 10, no El Niño, and above average ocean temperatures in the MDR. But the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded up to that time ripped through the Caribbean, Hurricane Gilbert, as well as two other major hurricanes. I flew into Hurricane Gilbert at the height of its fury 25 years ago, and plan to recount the story of that amazing flight this Friday.

Two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic
The dearth of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Atlantic will get made up some in the next few days, as we have two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic for the first time this year. Tropical Storm Gabrielle reformed this morning, about 160 miles south of Bermuda. Satellite loops show a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms have developed near the core of the storm, despite the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. Wind shear is expected to remain high for the next three days, which will likely keep Gabrielle below hurricane strength. The storm is expected to bring 40 mph winds and heavy rain to Bermuda Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. On Friday and Saturday, moisture from Gabrielle or its remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

Tropical Storm Humberto is churning across the far Eastern Atlantic, and is expected to turn northwards and intensify into a hurricane later today. Satellite loops show that Humberto is a small but well-organized storm that is staying just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

The models are bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Saturday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 10% and 5-day odds of 60%. Any storm developing the Gulf would likely track west-northwest into the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border, and could bring heavy rains as far north as Corpus Christi early next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

12 years ago...



Quoting 1485. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 0z GFS would be really, really bad for Mexico. In addition to hurricane-force winds, the model puts out nearly two feet of accumulated rainfall in the span of a few days.


Interestingly enough, it appears that it makes landfall then backslides down the coast - only to move up again. I assume "looping around". Not good for the folks down there.

Let's hope that is not the case, and instead it moves in quickly.
Also, I am really sorry to hear about Mr. Grothar and wish him well, hopefully he will feel better soon, and get the strength he needs to re-join us here on the blog. He always enlightens me when he shares of his experiences in life.
Lol. #1494, nice knowin' ya.
Quoting 1497. AussieStorm:


These 4 major fires were in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area. We have not had rain for 28 days but there is a chance this weekend.


Hey we're even sharing the same weather pattern - we have a slight chance of rain this weekend, with improved chances the beginning of next week. Hope that the rain is enough to dampen things down.
Quoting 1498. KoritheMan:


Link

Link

Link

ECMWF can be found in the second image.


Thanks Kori.
Strength on gfs seems reasonable but track is not. Might've had a hiccup it's in run. Had it sitting there for 4-5 days? Then moving se then inland and weakening before land fall? Expect that to change in the next run.
Quoting 1501. TropicalAnalystwx13:
12 years ago...



I still get depressed when I think about it or watch it.

Never Forget.
Quoting 1492. HurrMichaelOrl:


The most action I have seen here in Orlando since joining in July 2007 was Tropical Storm Fay, a few random squalls from tropical remnants or cyclones passing well away from us and intense thunderstorms. Truly, Orlando does not get sustained 50+ mph winds from tropical cyclones very often at all, as I have learned more and more over the years. I say 50+ mph as it is not that uncommon to get 39-49 mph sustained winds briefly in outer bands/associated thunderstorms from cyclones. Hurricane force sustained winds are exceedingly rare here and I would say this phenomenon occurs less than once every 50 years.

Grothar, I am sorry to see you leave the blog, as I have enjoyed and appreciated your contributions over the past several years. Take care and do stop in sometimes.


Be happy you weren't there for Charley.
gonna be close!
To better point out that inter-run variability I was pointing out earlier, here are the accumulated rainfall outputs from the 18Z and 00Z GFS runs. Notice how different the solutions are for Texas in particular.





Personally, I'm pulling for something similar to the 18Z run. Yup, I'm still looking for rain. :P
Looks like the rains from 08L & it's remains killed 8 people in MX..

Landslide in Mexico on Wednesday, 11 September, 2013 at 03:27 (03:27 AM) UTC.
Description
Authorities in eastern Mexico say mud and sand slid off the side of a hill after days of heavy rains, swept over two homes and killed eight people. Officials say two people were rescued alive from the buried houses in Veracruz state. The two homes were hit late Monday in the town of Manzanatitla, which is in a mountainous area about 200 miles (320 kilometers) east of Mexico City. Heavy rains have been falling across southeastern and central Mexico in recent days. Tropical Storm Fernand caused landslides and flooding that killed 13 people in Veracruz state last month. The state's secretary of civil protection has not released the names of the latest victims.
1513. GetReal
NAVGEM 90 HOURS

Quoting 1511. 1900hurricane:
To better point out that inter-run variability I was pointing out earlier, here are the accumulated rainfall outputs from the 18Z and 00Z GFS runs. Notice how different the solutions are for Texas in particular.





Personally, I'm pulling for something similar to the 18Z run. Yup, I'm still looking for rain. :P


Can you post the omega charts for the same times?
Extreme Weather in USA on Wednesday, 11 September, 2013 at 03:21 (03:21 AM) UTC.
Description
Residents of Sidney are cleaning up after a thunderstorm caused widespread damage to the city in the Nebraska Panhandle. The National Weather Service says nearly 2 inches of rain fell in Sidney Monday evening and winds gusted up to 78 mph during the intense storm. City Manager Gary Person says the storm knocked out power to much of Sidney, uprooted trees and damaged homes and businesses. A semitrailer truck overturned on Interstate 80 and a train was blown off the tracks west of Sidney. Person says the power outage forced the school district to keep the elementary school closed Tuesday, but the middle and high schools were open. Most of Sidney regained power by about noon Tuesday.

night all.
lets see if the mojo has one more good lift this season in october
Fresh TRMM pass of Gabrielle..Click pic for extra large quicktime movie of it..

Quoting 1501. TropicalAnalystwx13:
12 years ago...



Hard to believe it was 12 years ago. Those towers still stand tall in spirit and the memories will never be forgotten. RIP to all those whose lives were loss on that very sad day and especially to the members of the FDNY and NYPD who risk their lives doing what they do best by going into the towers and trying to save as many lives as they could.
Quoting 1510. bigwes6844:
gonna be close!
It is looking like the 5AM AST time discussion will decide the hourly thing. The record though is tied for sure, unless there's some unexpected update within 200 minutes. Nobody's gonna' care years from now the exact hour it was declared on 9/11. This year is going down as a tie or a new record if it fails to make cane tomorrow night EDT.
Lest not forget....

Quoting 1514. Progster:


Can you post the omega charts for the same times?



18Z GFS @ 174 hrs.

I haven't found an omega chart for 00Z yet, but they should soon be available.
The Navy model looks Scary!
1525. GetReal
NAVGEM 120 hours:


Looks to be heading north in the W GOM.
Quoting 1521. CosmicEvents:
It is looking like the 5AM AST time discussion will decide the hourly thing. The record though is tied for sure, unless there's some unexpected update within 200 minutes. Nobody's gonna' care years from now the exact hour it was declared on 9/11. This year is going down as a tie or a new record if it fails to make cane tomorrow night EDT.
well actually gustav was formed on sept 11 2002 at 8 am edt so if this advisory dont get it its gonna be tied or we will have the record. i dont think humberto will do it until tomorrow afternoon we will get the record this year
Quoting 1509. daddyjames:


Be happy you weren't there for Charley.


Oh, I was, and it was pretty bad here, though winds where I am (Maitland) were almost certainly not sustained hurricane force as they were on the east side of town (OIA, UCF, etc.). The hurricane was a lot of fun to watch, and it did a great deal of vegetation and power grid damage where I was. This was the worst cyclone I have experienced (and indeed that the area has experienced in a VERY long time), and if I could do it over again, I would not have bothered boarding up where I was.

Hurricane Charley (from my own research) was the only time in the last century where I either know (as with Charley) or have read compelling evidence that the immediate Orlando area received hurricane force sustained winds from a tropical cyclone. Wunderground provides daily records for the Orlando Int'l Airport going back to the early 1940s. This has led me to review the records from during other 'canes and storms. Not even Hurricane Donna brought winds even close to hurricane force to Orlando. This is why I estimate that the long term average for hurricane force winds here is somewhere between once every 50-100 years.
The GFS has a TEXAS landfall I see.....so the Navy and GFS both tug 93L north it seems.



Quoting 1523. 1900hurricane:



18Z GFS @ 174 hrs.

I haven't found an omega chart for 00Z yet.


Thanks. Compare the 2 when you can. Vertical motion is basically the only determinant of precipitation and changes in this field will be reflected in model precip quantities. The diagnostic is then to determine why omega is different between the runs. Is it different differential vorticity advection? Ageostrophically induced omega differences due to differences in the shear aloft? Different rates of conversion of latent heat of condensation? Diagnosis is tricky but worthwhile when one is seeking to explain model variability.
Quoting 1527. HurrMichaelOrl:


Oh, I was, and it was pretty bad here, though winds where I am (Maitland) were almost certainly not sustained hurricane force as they were on the east side of town (OIA, UCF, etc.). The hurricane was a lot of fun to watch, and it did a great deal of vegetation and power grid damage where I was. This was the worst cyclone I have experienced (and indeed that the area has experienced in a VERY long time), and if I could do it over again, I would not have bothered boarding up where I was.

Hurricane Charley (from my own research) was the only time in the last century where I either know (as with Charley) or have read compelling evidence that the immediate Orlando area received hurricane force sustained winds from a tropical cyclone. Wunderground provides daily records for the Orlando Int'l Airport going back to the early 1940s. This has led me to review the records from during other 'canes and storms. Not even Hurricane Donna brought winds even close to hurricane force to Orlando. This is why I estimate that the long term average for hurricane force winds here is somewhere between once every 50-100 years.
It's the same thing with Tampa Bay, I think the last time Tampa saw sustained hurricane force winds was with Donna, before that you would have to go all the way back to the 1921 storm. Although, in Pinellas County saw some significant storm surge damage from the 1921 storm, the Labor Day Hurricane, and Hurricanes Easy and Donna. I know one spot that hasn't had a hurricane hit in a while, Daytona Beach.
Quoting 1530. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's the same thing with Tampa Bay, I think the last time Tampa saw sustained hurricane force winds was with Donna, before that you would have to go all the way back to the 1921 storm. Although, in Pinellas County saw some significant storm surge damage from the 1921 storm, the Labor Day Hurricane, and Hurricanes Easy and Donna. I know one spot that hasn't had a hurricane hit in a while, Daytona Beach.


Hurricane Elanie....was pretty bad in Tampa Bay!

Im not trusting the models for AL93 because the high over TX will move east and the flow could become southerly. I expect a change in the near future. Oh and God bless those lost on 9/11/2001...and God bless the heroes! we will NEVER forget.
Quoting 1531. TampaSpin:


Hurricane Elanie....was pretty bad in Tampa Bay!
Yeah someone was telling me when I went to the beach during Debby that they hadn't seen this bad of beach erosion since Elena, so that told me she was bad storm, but fortunately it turned away before it could make landfall or it would have been a lot worst.
Happy birthday Dr.Masters.Hope you have a good one.GBU
Gro,sorry I am late and hope I can ever talk to you again You were an amazing and very wise,you were one of my best friend in here.I will miss you a lot.You were really important too many in here.:D hope you do better and I respect your decision.
Quoting 1529. Progster:


Thanks. Compare the 2 when you can. Vertical motion is basically the only determinant of precipitation and changes in this field will be reflected in model precip quantities. The diagnostic is then to determine why omega is different between the runs. Is it different differential vorticity advection? Ageostrophically induced omega differences due to differences in the shear aloft? Different rates of conversion of latent heat of condensation? Diagnosis is tricky but worthwhile when one is seeking to explain model variability.

This time, the diagnosis is pretty easy. 00Z keeps a tropical cyclone (and its associated VV) confined to Mexico while 18Z lifts everything up through Texas. Now, the reasons why the track changes between runs is a bit more tricky (and something I am too tired/lazy to do right now).
Well that's my bed calling me to sleep :P...Have a goodnight everyone.
Quoting 1535. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah someone was telling me when I went to the beach during Debby that they hadn't seen this bad of beach erosion since Elena, so that told me she was bad storm, but fortunately it turned away before it could make landfall or it would have been a lot worst.


Elena was nearly stationary about 90miles off the Tampa Coast for 3 days.....the water in the bay was unreal..it was a CAT3 while there!
Quoting 1537. 1900hurricane:

This time, the diagnosis is pretty easy. 00Z keeps a tropical cyclone (and its associated VV) confined to Mexico while 18Z lifts everything up through Texas. Now, the reasons why the track changes between runs is a bit more tricky (and something I am too tired/lazy to do right now).


Roger. The zone of major dynamics changes. Then its maybe a Rossby wave/flow problem..something to think about tomorrow..i'm off to bed :)
I just don't think 93L is going to get pulled north. Setup seems to favor a more westward track into Tampico, MX.

A few random things:
1. God bless all our servicemen and women on this Patriot Day!
2. I'm going to miss you, Gro. I always loved how you added dry wit into your forecasts. God bless!
3. Go Texans!
4. ¡Dos a cero! ¡USA, USA, USA!
Quoting 1530. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's the same thing with Tampa Bay, I think the last time Tampa saw sustained hurricane force winds was with Donna, before that you would have to go all the way back to the 1921 storm. Although, in Pinellas County saw some significant storm surge damage from the 1921 storm, the Labor Day Hurricane, and Hurricanes Easy and Donna. I know one spot that hasn't had a hurricane hit in a while, Daytona Beach.


Interesting Caleb. So the last 50+ years not withstanding, it appears that the Tampa area gets full blown 'canes more frequently than Orlando. That is really what I would expect, looking at Tampa's geographical location versus Orlando's.

As far as Daytona, there is no telling the last time this location saw hurricane force winds. The city saw high end end tropical storm winds from more than one storm in 2004, but not quite hurricane force. I imagine Hurricane Dora in '64 came in too far north to have given Daytona such strong winds. A number of storms made direct impact on the E. Central FL Coast during the mid to late 1800s, the trajectories of which have been much more uncommon since. I bet Orlando and Daytona got clobbered a few times in the century before last.
1543. JLPR2
Ex-98L holding on to its circulation and it's trying to fire some convection. Not completely dead, only mostly dead. XD



Quoting 1541. galvestonhurricane:
I just don't think 93L is going to get pulled north. Setup seems to favor a more westward track into Tampico, MX.

A few random things:
1. God bless all our servicemen and women on this Patriot Day!
2. I'm going to miss you, Gro. I always loved how you added dry wit into your forecasts. God bless!
3. Go Texans!
4. ¡Dos a cero! ¡USA, USA, USA!


Everything always favors a westward track into Mexico just so I can't get a storm.

It's a perpetual curse.
Quoting 1528. TampaSpin:
The GFS has a TEXAS landfall I see.....so the Navy and GFS both tug 93L north it seems.





00Z Has it making landfall near the BOC now. Maybe it will change, but as of now it might not even threaten the US. Too early to call I know and there's model disagreement, but the GFS is among the top models even when it has consistently sucked this year.
Quoting 1544. KoritheMan:


Everything always favors a westward track into Mexico just so I can't get a storm.

It's a perpetual curse.

If the High moves far enough east...the flow will become southerly...then it WILL be pulled north. Of course the models say Tampico FOR NOW...because of the high.
Quoting 1534. Civicane49:
Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion


yeah that seems right after ingrid we mite be done util october
Quoting 1546. Stormchaser121:

If the High moves far enough east...the flow will become southerly...then it WILL be pulled north. Of course the models say Tampico FOR NOW...because of the high.


It's not so much the high as it is the trough that's supposed to be there is going to (as per the current guidance consensus) arrive about a day late.
Quoting 1544. KoritheMan:


Everything always favors a westward track into Mexico just so I can't get a storm.

It's a perpetual curse.


Lol, I know the feeling, except with my area it is those darned right turns the storms almost always make!
Quoting 1545. CaneHunter031472:


00Z Has it making landfall near the BOC now. Maybe it will change, but as of now it might not even threaten the US. Too early to call I know and there's model disagreement, but the GFS is among the top models even when it has consistently sucked this year.
nice avatar! lmao
Quoting 1548. KoritheMan:


It's not so much the high as it is the trough that's supposed to be there is going to (as per the current guidance consensus) arrive about a day late.

well... we will see. Until then...im having hope.
Quoting 1447. KoritheMan:


Well this blog is just full of good news today.

Let's talk about something else... like 93L coming to my house as a hurricane. :)
I'm sure all ur neighbours are right there rooting for 93L to come to your house, and ONLY your house, as a hurricane.... lol

Hey, Kori... still thinkin' this will end up in the Brownsville area at best, but I agree we have a few days during which synoptic patterns can change...

Code Orange bby!
00
ABNT20 KNHC 110542
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
30% code orange!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST TUE SEP 10 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF
HILO...HAWAII...WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE PRODUCED
AN ENVIRONMENT NOT LIKELY TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.


$$
Quoting 1552. BahaHurican:
I'm sure all ur neighbours are right there rooting for 93L to come to your house, and ONLY your house, as a hurricane.... lol

Hey, Kori... still thinkin' this will end up in the Brownsville area at best, but I agree we have a few days during which synoptic patterns can change...



We've already established, many times Baha, that I'm insane, psychotic, and quite possibly brain damaged. I mean, who wants a hurricane in their front yard besides me? :)
Quoting 1465. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Birthday, Dr. Masters!

983mb on 0z GFS @ 102 hours.


Unlike TS Humberto in the Eastern Atlantic, judging by the BOC spin ups this year, an intense hurricane can't be ruled out if this system stalls. I'd be very worried regarding a stall in the BOC!
Wow look at rainfall totals from the wpc..
1201. PanhandleChuck 7:09 PM PDT on September 10, 2013 +1
Quoting 1190. gulfbreeze:
More BS!!!!


I'm quite sure BS = Big Storms LOL

BS=Brilliant Speech
Quoting 1530. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's the same thing with Tampa Bay, I think the last time Tampa saw sustained hurricane force winds was with Donna, before that you would have to go all the way back to the 1921 storm. Although, in Pinellas County saw some significant storm surge damage from the 1921 storm, the Labor Day Hurricane, and Hurricanes Easy and Donna. I know one spot that hasn't had a hurricane hit in a while, Daytona Beach.


Whereas Daytona hasn't seen a Landfall in a VERY long time, we've had our share of affect from Hurricane's here. Floyd did a drive by on both area Pier's in '99. The "04 season saw plenty of Damage from Charlie and to this day you can still see the results of Francis hovering off the Treasure Coast for a couple of days before landfalling. (Only one more condemned hotel left to level, several empty parcels where hotels once stood.) The storm surge during Francis compromised a number of sea-walls, flooded hotel lobby's and reached A1A. On the bright side, one of the now empty hotel property's is now having a new Hard Rock Resort built on it, so big win!! Andrew is really one of the few major storms that I can think if that was small enough in size to not have effected a larger part of the state in it's crossing (thank goodness on that one!!!)

Personally, I'm glad it's been a quiet season. If Florida get's hit by a Francis type of storm, it will be a very damaging storm; more so than what we saw in 04. This summer has been so wet (With July especially being a record rain month for the state) that wind won't be the biggest threat, rain will. Ground is wet enough that Flooding from Lake O, and/or the St Johns River and other water bodies that it would have an impact on an area much larger than the immediate landfall area.
goodnight everybody goodnight humberto U BETTER BE A HURRICANE AT 5! lol
Quoting 1547. bigwes6844:

yeah that seems right after ingrid we mite be done util october


Not exactly according to GFS...

Quoting 1564. Bluestorm5:


Not exactly according to GFS...

but u know how the GFS is in rushing the mojo
Quoting 1558. KoritheMan:


We've already established, many times Baha, that I'm insane, psychotic, and quite possibly brain damaged. I mean, who wants a hurricane in their front yard besides me? :)


Lol.
Quoting 1558. KoritheMan:


We've already established, many times Baha, that I'm insane, psychotic, and quite possibly brain damaged. I mean, who wants a hurricane in their front yard besides me? :)

Meeeeeeee!
Quoting 1567. Stormchaser121:

Meeeeeeee!


lol
Quoting 1568. KoritheMan:


lol

Hahaha :) Just saw the KFDM report again...we still have a pretty good chance.
Quoting 1569. Stormchaser121:

Hahaha :) Just saw the KFDM report again...we still have a pretty good chance.


Seriously, there's still a bit of time for things to change; the trough is still like five days away.

Look at how the setup changed in that amount of time with Isaac.
Gabrielle down to 45 knots.

AL, 07, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 323N, 654W, 45, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 50, 30, 60, 1017, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,
Humberto still a tropical storm.

AL, 09, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 156N, 287W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1012, 400, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
AL, 93, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 180N, 880W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
CP, 94, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1569W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 230, 210, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 1570. KoritheMan:


Seriously, there's still a bit of time for things to change; the trough is still like five days away.

Look at how the setup changed in that amount of time with Isaac.

Oh I remember Isaac very well.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
15:00 PM JST September 11 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.3N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.2N 145.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara Waters
1577. sar2401
Quoting yankees440:


Unlike TS Humberto in the Eastern Atlantic, judging by the BOC spin ups this year, an intense hurricane can't be ruled out if this system stalls. I'd be very worried regarding a stall in the BOC!

Why would you be worried about an intense hurricane if a storm in the BOC stalls based on the "spin ups" there so far? Barry and Fernand were the only two cyclones in the BOC, plus a number of invest and AOI's. The forecasted track for 93L is very similar to Barry and, to some degree, Fernand. Both of these storms were unable to free themselves from the BOC coastline, so they had a short and uneventful life. I can't see why the outcome for 93L should be any different. It may become another Fernand, with some intensification to a 60 mph TS that will then keel over and make a hard left in Veracruz or Tampico.

This is not directed to you, Yankee, but just a general observation. Every year we get storms like Humberto that's supposed to be the "big one". Now it appears that Humberto will, assuming it becomes a hurricane, be a cat 1 for about 24-26 hours before it sails out to sean, never to be heard of again. The reborn Gabby was supposed to be a close second behind Humberto. Now it looks like it doesn't make it past a TS, but may end up making a landfall in the Maritimes.

93L is not pretty much all that's left for a few weeks, so we have to hype it up, since there isn't much else to talk about. Blog depression sets in until the next "big ones" show up and we start again. Every year we get the same thing, because every year we'll get the CMC or GFS showing a cat 2 or cat 3 model. It's too bad we can't just turn the models off until at least three days before predicated landfall. We'd get a lot more light and a lot less heat on the blog.
Good Morning Class!
Quoting 1580. Civicane49:

This will likely change over the next 5 days
Quoting 1582. Stormchaser121:

This will likely change over the next 5 days


You sure you don't just want it to? :)
Quoting 1479. Didereaux:
I've watched and read this column and followed the predictions, the storm tracks, all of it for the past 7-8 years. I have come to the conclusion that the people associated with the computers programs, and the meteorologists are all fairly good at predicting HISTORY.

The fact is that the computers are startling similar in their predictions as the programs based upon predicting horse races, Lotto numbers, and stock markets...they all are derived by necessity from historical results, and you know what? When you input data similar to those that occurred in the past their output is pretty close to what happened then.

In other words to this layman it would appear that the fault is that you know to little about what actually causes things in the earths atmosphere. Do some more science...THEN start handing out your predictions. Truth is that predicting the weather accurately more than 3-4 days out is not much more reliable than dartboards.

Au Contraire Monsieur ... the earth is both the darts and the board, and if you believe that she has a voice, wouldn't she know in advance? Could she not whisper it to a tiny bird, perhaps?

As you may know, the inverted triangle is the universally understood symbol pointing to where cyclonic winds are occurring.

We use the open inverted triangle in meteorology to point to what is happening in the atmosphere above a certain point on the ground. Here's the Elevated form

In 2007(Post 152) and 2008, I introduced a slightly modified symbol in my season forecast, which would arguably point to two key events that were about to take place during the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and more controversially ... to whom.

My 2012 hurricane forecast video published last year(below,) contained a reminder of that 2008 forecast, using the same tiny messenger, but this time I didn't point where, or to whom, but instead I gave the letter of the name that would become a giant, using the poetic whispered warnings ("transition") and ("be where.")

"S"uperstorm "S"andy would become one of the most amazing displays of power that we have ever seen in the Atlantic Basin.

At the end of this year's forecast update #2, I outline a possible reason for why ... the who, because who better to pick to convey that the earth has a voice than those who have looked down upon her as a single entity?

You and Dr. Gray make similar arguments about hurricane prediction, but if we ever become points on that dart board, all bets are off for the seven billion souls on board this ship.





Post 399. OracleDeAtlantis 5:06 AM GMT on April 20, 2012:

As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we'll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.

Quoting 1581. KoritheMan:
Did a blog entry on the tropics, if anyone's around to read it.
WEll, I wasn't planning to be around, but SOMEthing woke me up... so I may as well go read it.

I note Humberto is not a hurricane yet...
Quoting 1583. KoritheMan:


You sure you don't just want it to? :)

Well theres that....but I think it will (HOPEFULLY) :)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...GABRIELLE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE IS COMPRISED OF A SWIRL
OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT
THIS TIME. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ONGOING AFFECT OF 15-20 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS...
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/7. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GABRIELLE AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER
GABRIELLE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RECURVE ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WHILE THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...IT HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO
THE LEFT/WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DURING THAT TIME...BUT STILL LIES TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURACE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CALL FOR
CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR...WITH THE UKMET...NAVGEM...AND ECMWF MODELS
FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO DECAY TO A TROUGH DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER THAT...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE GFS SCENARIO THAT GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNTIL IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NEW FORECAST A
LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 32.5N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 33.1N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 33.7N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 34.7N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 37.2N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
First hurricane of the season has finally arrived!

8-1-0

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...



SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Duplicated post.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT. HUMBERTO
HAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. IN A FEW DAYS...
ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL
CLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT
MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS
LIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER
STOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. WITH HUMBERTO
BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE
TO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.0N 28.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 17.2N 29.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 19.0N 29.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 20.9N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 30.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 23.8N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 24.2N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting 1589. Civicane49:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
So close!! Oh well. Now I am rooting for hurricanes in the Atlantic like there is no tomorrow lol :^)
NOOO!! Man. I can't believe that you couldn't wait to become a hurricane for at least another 3 hours. So close. After all this time we might as well have broken the record. Most of us were rooting for YOU Humberto to wait another 3 to 6 hours. You know what now that we have a hurricane, I have finally lost one of my rotten eggs 8/1/0 :,^( yippee? :,^(
You know what at least we tied the record for the latest date of the first hurricane so yaaay for real. :^D BTW is it really Dr. Jeff Masters birthday today? Cody said happy birthday to him earlier?
From the NHC Facebook page earlier:

"As a number of folks know, we are approaching a record for the latest formation of the season's first hurricane, at least in the satellite era. Since 1967, the latest formation of the season's first hurricane was 8 am ET September 11th (Gustav in 2002). As it happens, Humberto is approaching hurricane strength with 8 am on the 11th also just around the corner (to mix a space-time metaphor). So this might be a good time to remind folks that NHC always conducts a post-storm analysis of each tropical cyclone. We usually adjust the final positions and intensities a little bit in this analysis, and sometimes we make substantial adjustments, based on information that we might not have had in real time.

The point being that regardless of when Humberto might become a hurricane in our advisories, the final final call on whether or not we actually set a record will not be determined until the post-storm analysis is complete, several weeks or perhaps even a couple months from now."
Quoting 1595. Civicane49:
From the NHC Facebook page earlier:

"As a number of folks know, we are approaching a record for the latest formation of the season's first hurricane, at least in the satellite era. Since 1967, the latest formation of the season's first hurricane was 8 am ET September 11th (Gustav in 2002). As it happens, Humberto is approaching hurricane strength with 8 am on the 11th also just around the corner (to mix a space-time metaphor). So this might be a good time to remind folks that NHC always conducts a post-storm analysis of each tropical cyclone. We usually adjust the final positions and intensities a little bit in this analysis, and sometimes we make substantial adjustments, based on information that we might not have had in real time.

The point being that regardless of when Humberto might become a hurricane in our advisories, the final final call on whether or not we actually set a record will not be determined until the post-storm analysis is complete, several weeks or perhaps even a couple months from now."
Oh. Okay then. :^)
...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


Good morning everybody!

I see Humberto has earned the title of...

The First Hurricane of 2013!!!
1599. WxLogic
Good Morning
Number 2 won't be far behind Hurricane Humberto if the GFS is right, 978mb storm in the BoC from 93L in 135 hours. New storm also taking shape over the Cape Verde islands.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 with a feels like 77 degrees. A high expected of 94, so probably a heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Scrambled Egg Pockets, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, broccoli & cheddar omelet, berry breakfast pizza, French Toast Roll-Ups, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, bacon and/or thick slices fried ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
good morning not much to add maybe some showers moving in for our ne windwds friends/ US east coast needs some surf
First visible shots of the day reveals a little eye feature. Definitely a good move by the NHC for calling this a hurricane.

1604. Gearsts
Euro develops this wave north of the greater antilles.
Morning

It appears that the atlantic has shifted into top gear. we have hurricane Humberto, TS Gabrielle, invest 93L which is ear marked to become Ingrid, next an area of disturbed weather west of the cape verdes,and finally the remnants of 98L moving wsw.

The remnants of 98L looks rather interesting. It has good 850mb vorticity, good convergence and divergence. shear is in the 5-10 knots range and is forecast to continue to drop. looking at this morning sat pictures, it appears there is moderate spin near 15N 51W with convection building in this area. this is really an area of interest.
1607. IKE
BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!!!!!!!!  WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!

..HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

Almost no model support taking future Ingrid north to Texas. They really need the rain. Looking more like another Tampico storm.
Shhhhh. We don't want to wake everyone up too early..................WE HAVE OUR FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON!!It's party time. I have free vanilla mocha coffee for everyone who wants to celebrate!
1610. IKE

38m
Humberto upgraded to a hurricane. Just missed the record for the latest “first hurricane” on record by a few hours.
Quoting 1607. IKE:
BREAK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE!!!!!!!!!  WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!

..HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...



3 hours short of tying the record. Kinda like a pitcher losing his no hitter with 2 outs in the ninth inning.
1612. IKE

The moment the eye pops out of Hurricane Humberto we'll see the ADT jump is my guess.
Quoting 1601. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 with a feels like 77 degrees. A high expected of 94, so probably a heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Scrambled Egg Pockets, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, broccoli & cheddar omelet, berry breakfast pizza, French Toast Roll-Ups, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, bacon and/or thick slices fried ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!

I put on virtual pounds every time you serve it :-)
Hurricanes2018 The 2013 Atlantic season is saved!!! We have a hurricane!
Well, I'm glad we finally got a hurricane! :)
Movin on over to 8/1/0!
Humberto, you are 3 hours early to the conference. Please drive back home, and come back later.
I bet the "no hurricane in 2013" crowd is shoving crow in their faces this morning like there's no tomorrow.
1620. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

Quoting 1619. CybrTeddy:
I bet the "no hurricane in 2013" crowd is shoving crow in their faces this morning like there's no tomorrow.


Hurricanes form every year and that's guaranteed, anybody on here who thought otherwise isn't even credible enough to be offered crow lol
1622. IKE

wow it finally did it! it was so close but humberto i knew u had it in ya when i went to bed! good comeback proud of u
Interesting little tidbit from TWC's Stephanie Abrams.
"Chilling! If Erin was 200 miles West @parkertwc says it's safe to say air traffic would have been shut down. You can see the smoke from the towers on the top satellite picture."

Referring to Hurricane Erin in 2001, which made its closest approach to the US on September 11th.
look at the comeback from when we were sleep
Humberto is starting to look really good now with an eye trying to develop.
1627. GatorWX
Morning.

I see the CMC is still aggressive with 98L.



...and Humberto still looks like a tropical storm, albeit a strengthening one. Will the record be broken? Seems likely to me.



Watching 98L and 93L closer to home.
Quoting 1563. bigwes6844:
goodnight everybody goodnight humberto U BETTER BE A HURRICANE AT 5! lol
humberto said yall better respect me next time! Im the king now lol!!!
Once we get a cleared out eye, we'll have a pretty good darn lookin storm!

90 mph or even Cat 2 imo isn't out of the queation
1630. VR46L
Hmmm 93L

Click on image for loop



1631. GatorWX
Quoting 1625. bigwes6844:
look at the comeback from when we were sleep


It could be close. I'm hoping for a tie.
1632. IKE

Quoting GatorWX:


It could be close. I'm hoping for a tie.
It's already a cane.
Quoting 1631. GatorWX:


It could be close. I'm hoping for a tie.


BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...
1634. GatorWX
Awwh, guess I could have checked. Didn't think it looked that good lol.
1635. GatorWX
992, 75, darn! Wanted that record.
1636. GatorWX
Quoting 1633. Tropicsweatherpr:


BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


Yea, yea. It's early!
1637. SLU
Thank you for saving us from the embarrassment.

1638. Torito
Quoting 1621. wxgeek723:


Hurricanes form every year and that's guaranteed, anybody on here who thought otherwise isn't even credible enough to be offered crow lol


umm, no?

no hurricanes in 1914 and 1907, and I can guarantee that there were years with none before recorded history... :P
1639. GatorWX
Gabs

Quoting 1638. Torito:


umm, no?

no hurricanes in 1914 and 1907, and I can guarantee that there were years with none before recorded history... :P


I'm 99% certain that there were hurricanes in 1914 and 1907, just they were either brief or went unrecorded.
Does it matter, he isn't going to hit us!!!
1642. GatorWX


Keep an eye on AL93 theres still a chance it could turn to the north and affect TX.
I just posted a blog about September 11...

If you want To drop any thought about this day feel free to post a comment there

Go and check it out... Hit my name.
1645. yoboi
Quoting 1630. VR46L:
Hmmm 93L

Click on image for loop






Hmmm IT looks like a wet system.....wonder if IT is headed my way????
Quoting 1619. CybrTeddy:
I bet the "no hurricane in 2013" crowd is shoving crow in their faces this morning like there's no tomorrow.


Big Whoop
Wow.this pathetic hurricane season couldn't even make a run at a record for latest hurricane of any season.This year has not been a learning experience or a extraordinary one.I give it 5 years no 2 years tops before I forget every single last one of these storms and what they did.I'm hoping for a 2010 set up next year where we can see beautiful majors out in the Atlantic.(The majors for the most part stayed out to sea in 2010 for those that are brain dead and trying to nit pick).
Quoting 1641. bryanfromkyleTX:
Does it matter, he isn't going to hit us!!!

Of course it matters. For hurricane watchers, a year without a cane to watch is a little like a stamp collector without any stamps.
Quoting 1608. clwstmchasr:
Almost no model support taking future Ingrid north to Texas. They really need the rain. Looking more like another Tampico storm.


I guess Mother nature's tequila was bad and now she must want to get rid of Mexico.
1650. VR46L
Quoting 1645. yoboi:



Hmmm IT looks like a wet system.....wonder if IT is headed my way????


Your in LA?

You might get something out of it ! But I see they are backing off the Northern solution ..



1651. yoboi
Quoting 1650. VR46L:


Your in LA?

You might get something out of it ! But I see they are backing off the Northern solution ..






Yep in La...I guess if I get a little something out of IT...Thats better than nothing.....
invest 93L NEED TO BE WATCH FOR A HURRICANE DOWN THE ROAD.
Quoting 1651. yoboi:



Yep in La...I guess if I get a little something out of IT...Thats better than nothing.....


don't count on it.
Quoting 1647. washingtonian115:
Wow.this pathetic hurricane season couldn't even make a run at a record for latest hurricane of any season.This year has not been a learning experience or a extraordinary one.I give it 5 years no 2 years tops before I forget every single last one of these storms and what they did.I'm hoping for a 2010 set up next year where we can see beautiful majors out in the Atlantic.(The majors for the most part stayed out to sea in 2010 for those that are brain dead and trying to nit pick).
now heres the next question when was the last major formed late? We still mite get a record with that wash
Folks you really have to feel for the people in Texas as all the rain the models were showing for them have now gone POOF. Unreal!

People in FL might want to keep an eye on ex 98L.

Humberto, most loved hurricane of 2013!
93L looks like it could be Ingrid right now. Very impressive!

Quoting 1601. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 with a feels like 77 degrees. A high expected of 94, so probably a heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Scrambled Egg Pockets, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, broccoli & cheddar omelet, berry breakfast pizza, French Toast Roll-Ups, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, bacon and/or thick slices fried ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!
Quoting 1597. CybrTeddy:
...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


Gosh I really want to break the record,I am happy we have a hurricane but if it could only have wait a little more.
Humberto you did it!

40% and 10%!
The sleeper system maybe ex 98L. Very impressive circulation with it as well.

Quoting 1659. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!


Kinda early to be yelling.
I, for one, enjoy reading the menu. There's an ignore feature available so use it and get it over it already. Sheesh.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE HUMBERTO...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED
JUST WEST OF BERMUDA.

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY
AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY WHEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
1666. beell
As a resident of coastal Texas, ya'll are really bumming me out this morning.
Quoting 1663. StormTrackerScott:
The sleeper system maybe ex 98L. Very impressive circulation with it as well.

mite be a gabby part 2 remember it was just like this one
1668. GatorWX

Quoting 1666. beell:
As a resident of coastal Texas, ya'll are really bumming me out this morning.


Your rain went POOF! I mean I really feel for you guys.
Quoting 1659. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!


Looks like another storm is brewing here.......
Ingrid-to-be is looking more impressive than the NHC is giving credit for. IMHO.
Quoting 1659. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!
Mr. grinch, if you read back through the blog, you'll find Aislinnpaps has some serious real life problems and won't be bothering you (at least for awhile) with these whimsical breakfasts. Maybe that will improve your disposition, but I doubt it.
Quoting 1601. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 with a feels like 77 degrees. A high expected of 94, so probably a heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Scrambled Egg Pockets, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, broccoli & cheddar omelet, berry breakfast pizza, French Toast Roll-Ups, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, bacon and/or thick slices fried ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Thanks for the menu.
It motivates me to work out at the gym 8-)
Quoting 1601. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 with a feels like 77 degrees. A high expected of 94, so probably a heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Scrambled Egg Pockets, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, broccoli & cheddar omelet, berry breakfast pizza, French Toast Roll-Ups, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, bacon and/or thick slices fried ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!



Good morning from Central OK.

Tis the same here as it has been the last few days

Good morning ai. Thanks for the breakfast.

Best of luck to you in the upcoming days!

Popped in a little early to see Humberto's status. See that it missed the record by three hours. Impressive how much it overcame the dry air . . . seems as if turning North helped to pull back in moisture to the west of the center.

Have to run, y'all have fun.



1675. VR46L
Quoting 1653. StormTrackerScott:


don't count on it.


You got that right !
1676. beell
Quoting 1669. StormTrackerScott:


Your rain went POOF! I mean I really feel for you guys.


Well, it ain't over yet. Still have a few days and 93L remains a slow mover in the models. I can pretend the mean 500 mb heights in the gulf are meaningful, lol-except for the zonal flow across the northern tier.


Quoting 1675. VR46L:


You got that right !


It's almost as if someone set a curse that Texas never gets any rain again except for a couple of places here an there.
Quoting 1621. wxgeek723:


Hurricanes form every year and that's guaranteed, anybody on here who thought otherwise isn't even credible enough to be offered crow lol
Actually there have been two years that had no hurricanes and if crow were offered on the breakfast sideboard, I'm sure everyone would eat it anyway! :O
We've been getting lots of rain overnight here in St. Lucie County and continues this morning. Our swales are full and believe me we do not need 98L's intrusion into our area. Hopefully 98l will curve northward soon.
Quoting 1679. rmbjoe1954:
We've been getting lots of rain overnight here in St. Lucie County and continues this morning. Our swales are full and believe me we do not need 98L's intrusion into our area. Hopefully 98l will curve northward soon.
98L going out to sea to..
Quoting 1679. rmbjoe1954:
We've been getting lots of rain overnight here in St. Lucie County and continues this morning. Our swales are full and believe me we do not need 98L's intrusion into our area. Hopefully 98l will curve northward soon.


I think 98L may get involved into a complex weather pattern setting up over FL over the next 10 days as the models are now showing some sort of trough split pattern right over the state. Just look at the GFS precip totals below for the next 2 weeks.

06Z GFS


0Z GFS
Quoting 1681. hurricanes2018:
98L going out to sea to..


I like to see this proof as it is clearly moving WSW.
1684. pottery
Good Morning.

Humberto did it !
Well done him.
hurricane for the fish and going out to sea I am happy to see a hurricane now.
1687. GatorWX
Gonna be a rainy day across most of FL today.

So we did not break the record. I can already hear the cries of the people who wanted to break it.

But hey, Humberto came close and holds second place.
1690. Patrap
To Dr. Masters

445 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOISTENING ONSHORE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT FROM A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE
FOR STRONG STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
MOST NUMEROUS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT
GUSTY WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 TO 45 MPH MAY OCCUR IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT...SCATTERED
BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
PONDING WATER PROBLEMS.

Now THIS looks like hurricane season!

HEHEHE

Link
1694. pottery
Quoting daddyjames:



Good morning from Central OK.

Tis the same here as it has been the last few days

Good morning ai. Thanks for the breakfast.

Best of luck to you in the upcoming days!

Popped in a little early to see Humberto's status. See that it missed the record by three hours. Impressive how much it overcame the dry air . . . seems as if turning North helped to pull back in moisture to the west of the center.

Have to run, y'all have fun.





True that.
Still going to have some issues with the dry to his North, but seems to be dealing with it OK.

The Weird Season continues.
1695. VR46L
Quoting 1658. StormTrackerScott:
93L looks like it could be Ingrid right now. Very impressive!



Probably will be renamed when it gets to the other side ...
Aislin, I thouroughly enjoy your breakfast posts, nice to see some civility each morning. Miss seeing Surfmom for the same reason. Hope your health improves. Back to the tropics.
1697. Relix
This looks like a real season now.
Lol That is 93L at 979MB on the CMC
1699. SLU
RIP Gabby

11/1145 UTC 32.5N 65.7W T1.0/1.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic
WOW it coming down big time!
here come fall weather and will TAKE ex-98L OUT TO SEA and Humberto out to sea to.
Quoting 1658. StormTrackerScott:
93L looks like it could be Ingrid right now. Very impressive!

Appears to go north right now.
1703. VR46L
Quoting 1698. SFLWeatherman:
Lol That is 93L at 979MB on the CMC


I don't think so ... Link
Quoting 1698. SFLWeatherman:
Lol That is 93L at 979MB on the CMC


I thought 93L was supposed to be in the BOC then affect Mexico.
Quoting 1701. hurricanes2018:
here come fall weather and will TAKE ex-98L OUT TO SEA and Humberto out to sea to.


Finally, some cool weather!
Quoting 1704. rmbjoe1954:


I thought 93L was supposed to be in the BOC then affect Mexico. Are you sure that isn't ex-98L?

Quoting 1688. StormTrackerScott:
Gonna be a rainy day across most of FL today.

Millions are concerned about it.
1709. pottery
The current Steering Map shows Hum. should be diving south-west from now LOL.

That would be something else !
I do not know about anyone else, but 93L may become one of the more serious threats of the season to date down the road for someone. Looks like someone was busy last night.

Gabrielle is hanging in there, but just barely:

AL, 07, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 325N, 657W, 40, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 50, 20, 60, 1017, 110, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,

Meanwhile, 93L is growing slightly stronger:

AL, 93, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 180N, 888W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
1712. FOREX
Quoting 1708. prcane4you:
Millions are concerned about it.


prcane, you have got a fresh mouth with me and Scott. you are now ignored.
Will 93L stay buried on land being at 18N?



The steering pattern over the next two weeks features a strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast, giving high odds that any hurricane that manages to form and approach the U.S. will recurve out to sea, without affecting any land areas. So keep your fingers crossed--we're doing unusually well for this point in the hurricane season, with no landfalling hurricanes, and it looks like we have above average chances of keeping it that way deep into September.. every storm will go out to sea..

INVEST 93L NEED TO BE WATCH MAYBE GO IN THE GOM!
Quoting 1684. pottery:
Good Morning.

Humberto did it !
Well done him.
Him.....Wow.
Quoting 1619. CybrTeddy:
I bet the "no hurricane in 2013" crowd is shoving crow in their faces this morning like there's no tomorrow.


No, they're just working on ways to say the Humberto isn't a hurricane. :)
Quoting 1701. hurricanes2018:
here come fall weather and will TAKE ex-98L OUT TO SEA and Humberto out to sea to.


AWESOME!! I hope it makes it all the way to the Gulf Coast.
1718. SLU
11/1215 UTC 17.6N 88.0W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic

11/1145 UTC 16.2N 28.6W T4.5/4.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
Oh no,please.
1720. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Congrats to Humberto..
Gently increasing the ACE as you go..
May you keep us watching for a few more days..
So long Gabby..
It was weird..
Thanks..
93L?..
With this year who knows..

Just released CPC..
My take away..
No El Nino till next year if at all..
Mild if it comes to fruition..


Climate Prediction Center new analysis for Oct,Nov,Dec..

NASA..



GFDL..



IMME..

1721. centex
Quoting 1713. Tropicsweatherpr:
Will 93L stay buried on land being at 18N?
Not according to NHC, they have it at 70% 5-day. Actually this is 3-4 day at this point.
1722. pottery
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, they're just working on ways to say the Humberto isn't a hurricane. :)


LOLOL, well in my case, and just for the record, I'm going to keep saying what I think will happen.
Like everyone else.

And like everyone else, I'm going to get about 50% of it wrong.

By the way, I was not one who said ''no hurricanes''.
But I did say it would be a slower season than the forecasts.

:):))
Just clearing that up.
Quoting hurricanes2018:



The steering pattern over the next two weeks features a strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast, giving high odds that any hurricane that manages to form and approach the U.S. will recurve out to sea, without affecting any land areas. So keep your fingers crossed--we're doing unusually well for this point in the hurricane season, with no landfalling hurricanes, and it looks like we have above average chances of keeping it that way deep into September.. every storm will go out to sea..

INVEST 93L NEED TO BE WATCH MAYBE GO IN THE GOM!


Na..models have backed away from midwest trof so another track similar to that of fernand is more likely.
Not sure why my text came out bolded but ok
1726. NCstu
So Humberto became a hurricame this morning? And that makes 2013 a close second for latest forming hurricane.
1727. VR46L
Quoting 1720. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Congrats to Humberto..
Gently increasing the ACE as you go..
May you keep us watching for a few more days..
So long Gabby..
It was weird..
Thanks..
93L?..
With this year who knows..

Just released CPC..
My take away..
No El Nino till next year if at all..
Mild if it comes to fruition..


Climate Prediction Center new analysis for Oct,Nov,Dec..

NASA..



GFDL..



IMME..



Good Morning Pcola,

The Predicted Anomalies are not very anomalous ...
Quoting 1701. hurricanes2018:
here come fall weather and will TAKE ex-98L OUT TO SEA and Humberto out to sea to.
That front want be that strong as hot as it's been here it will wash out before it get near the GULF!!
ex 98L is in a good shear environment, with good 850mb vorticity
Quoting 1701. hurricanes2018:
here come fall weather and will TAKE ex-98L OUT TO SEA and Humberto out to sea to.


Yeah for a couple of days and then back to the 80's & 90's. So think again on your fall outlook.

Things should be on the quite side once again soon..not that they ever got busy :0)



12 years ago today
The ATCF has Humerbto down to 989mb:

AL, 09, 2013091112, , BEST, 0, 163N, 290W, 65, 989, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 0, 1012, 400, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
1735. HCW
Impact Wx

Disturbance 50 Advisory 6
Issued: Wednesday, September 11th 2013 3:43am CDT

Current Position: 18.5N / 88.0W
Geographic Reference: Along coast of Belize
Movement: West at 8 mph
Organizational Trend: Increasing Slowly
Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 40 percent
Chance of Development Within 120 hours: 80 percent

Changes From Our Previous Forecast
As we are nearing the time when development could occur, the chance of development within 48 hours was raised from 20 percent to 40 percent.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 50 is moving on to the Yucatan Peninsula. It should emerge in the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Disturbance 50 could become a tropical depression early Friday and a tropical storm later that day as it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche. The system could grow into a larger than average sized tropical storm that may take up a large portion of the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche by Saturday.

Our forecast has this system moving inland about midway between Brownsville, TX and Tampico, MX late Sunday or early Monday. At that time it could be a strong tropical storm. We estimate that there is a 30 percent chance that the disturbance will become a hurricane prior to landfall late Sunday or early Monday.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Belize/Yucatan Peninsula: 3 to 6 inches of rain are possible through Thursday morning.

Mexico/Texas
Wind: At final landfall, tropical storm force winds are likely to extend 100 miles north of the center and 70 miles south of the center. Near the center, sustained winds to 60 mph are likely with gusts approaching hurricane force.
Rain: 8 to 16 inches of rain are likely with isolated totals of 20 to 25 inches possible extending 150 miles to the right of the path and 100 miles to the left of the path of the center. The highest totals are most likely to occur over mountainous terrain.
Surge: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal will be possible near where the center makes landfall and extending to 100 miles to the north of where the center makes landfall. Tides 1 to 2 feet above normal are possible as far north as the Upper Texas Coast.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche: Numerous squalls are expected to migrate slowly from east to west Thursday through the weekend. Late Friday through late Sunday, tropical storm conditions are expected within 100 miles of the path of the center once it moves west of 93W longitude.

Offshore Middle and Lower Texas Coast: Sunday through Monday morning, winds to the lower limits of tropical storm force are possible. The first squalls could reach the area by early Saturday.
The next advisory will be issued by 10AM CDT.
Meteorologists: Dante Diaz / Jennifer Stein
1736. VR46L
Quoting 1710. ILwthrfan:
I do not know about anyone else, but 93L may become one of the more serious threats of the season to date down the road for someone. Looks like someone was busy last night.



I agree with you , Just not completely sure where yet

Wondering if the Front to the North could have an effect on it later in the week!

Eye forming?

1738. pottery
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Eye forming?


You saw it first.......
That low is smacking Jacksonville. .

Love the sideboard. .

Happy Birthday Dr. M! Hope this is a great year for you. .

Thinking of all the Police, EMT, and Fire Fighters working every day to keep us safe. Special thoughts to the 9-11 PTSD sufferers out there.

Quoting 1723. hurricane23:


Na..model have backed away from midwest trof so another track similar to that of fernand is more likely.


Hi Adrian. You see 93L in BOC despite being far south. (17.6N)
happy bday Dr.Masters.
1743. VR46L
Quoting 1733. WxGeekVA:


12 years ago today


It's amazing how that Huge hurricane was right next to where the towers fell.
At present, looks like another Mexico BOC landfalling system.
Good morning all. Its a nice morning in Austin. We had some showers last night in the downtown area and temps were kept to the mid 80s by evening. Other than that nothing much to report.
Quoting 1745. Sfloridacat5:
At present, looks like another Mexico BOC landfalling system.


Pretty much as any other storm that has crossed that same area this year. I don't see anything that would make this one any diffent, other than strenght. I will eat the crow, but I think the US is safe from this one.
1748. GatorWX
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Adrian. You see 93L in BOC despite being far south. (17.6N)


Yep i sure do..Its a toss-up though to see how far away from land this disturbance will eventually get. For now a moderate TS with heavy rainfall being mean threat is what i see.
MSNBC replaying Today Show coverage from Tuesday morning, September 11, 2001. As It Happened.
Quoting 1747. CaneHunter031472:


Pretty much as any other storm that has crossed that same area this year. I don't see anything that would make this one any diffent, other than strenght. I will eat the crow, but I think the US is safe from this one.


The trough that was forecast to pull 93L up north didn't pan out in the 00z model run. The ensemble runs from last night show some degree of spread on where 93L ends up making landfall, so some ensemble members are still pulling for a deeper trough. I have a feeling that GFS's enthusiasm yesterday will be pretty much quashed by later runs today.

Timing is so important for these things, looks like we're not synced up this time around.
Quoting 1736. VR46L:


I agree with you , Just not completely sure where yet

Wondering if the Front to the North could have an effect on it later in the week!



Yucatan has helped weak circulations tighten up in the past, I'm guessing we may see something similar here. I don't think dry air should be too much of an issue.
Quoting 1747. CaneHunter031472:


Pretty much as any other storm that has crossed that same area this year. I don't see anything that would make this one any diffent, other than strenght. I will eat the crow, but I think the US is safe from this one.


If the pattern doesn't change, the BOC will get another system in another week or so. There's a train of Low pressure systems just waiting to move into the BOC. But as we know the pattern will eventually change, and when it does the middle gulf coast to Florida might need to worry. If one of these Lows stall out in the Western Caribbean and moves north, watch out.
Wow Gator!

I never saw the topography south of the Yucatan before. It realllly is built to feed winds in, and start a spin.

Thanks for that wide radar graphic.
1756. GatorWX
Quoting 1750. GeoffreyWPB:
MSNBC replaying Today Show coverage from Tuesday morning, September 11, 2001. As It Happened.


NBC covered it well. Crazy! I was a sophomore in HS. I had just entered Mr Terry's geography class right after the second plane had hit. I will never forget that day!
1758. GatorWX
Quoting 1754. biff4ugo:
Wow Gator!

I never saw the topography south of the Yucatan before. It realllly is built to feed winds in, and start a spin.

Thanks for that wide radar graphic.


Welcome.

Link
Quoting 1742. HurricaneAndre:
happy bday Dr.Masters.
What a terrible day to have a birthday on!
1760. GatorWX
You should probably focus on something different too, health problems or none.
1761. Patrap
1762. Patrap
Quoting 1759. Waltanater:
What a terrible day to have a birthday on!


At 53, I'm purty sure Dr. Masters was around before the events of 12 years ago.

But hey, your on a roll.

Anything else?
All that 93 L needs is winds the circulation is well organised
Quoting 1756. GatorWX:


NBC covered it well. Crazy! I was a sophomore in HS. I had just entered Mr Terry's geography class right after the second plane had hit. I will never forget that day!


I was in the Navy stationed in Roosevelt Roads Pueto Rico. I was the night crew supervisor for 13b VC8 Squadron and lived off base, so I was asleep when the first plane hit, but the Squadron called me to let me know that we where in high alert and to turn on the TV. I quickly realized why then. The base went crazy after that preparing for whatever orders came our way. We knew right away that we were going to war and we were ready for it.
1765. yqt1001
Humberto is the first official hurricane strength tropical cyclone in nearly a month (Utor). Unofficial typhoon Trami was 4 days later.

Peak season and we went just under 30 days without anything more than a tropical storm globally. What happened?
1766. pcola57
Quoting 1727. VR46L:


Good Morning Pcola,

The Predicted Anomalies are not very anomalous ...


Good Morning VR..
I agree..
Not so much..
One thing I do notice however..
Is how persistent the warming anomalies are in the Artic and Antartic are..
Warmth still on for them..
Read this this morning and found it interesting..

Antartic Lake Whillans
1767. vis0
HOLY
COW I JUST REALIZED IN DOING IT BY MEMORY I MESSED UP. Anomaly week
began on the 8th of Sept 2 weeks before the next Galacsic trend which
starts Sept ~19-22 2013. WOW WHAT A MISTAKE so the affect is OBTUSE NOT
ACUTE. (see my WxU blog for more)

i now i promised not to comment anymore but this can be serious.
Quoting 1757. Waltanater:
Wolfy..., if she does indeed have "serious life problems" then all the more reason she shouldn't be posting this. She really should be focusing on her priorities instead of a stupid list of food items.


Hey you just need to chill, that is totally wrong. She is headed to Ochners with her son in N.O. You ought to be ashamed of yourself right know for acting like this.

sheri

another thing we enjoy breakfast from her.....
1769. Patrap
Quoting 1765. yqt1001:
Humberto is the first official hurricane strength tropical cyclone in nearly a month (Utor). Unofficial typhoon Trami was 4 days later.

Peak season and we went just under 30 days without anything more than a tropical storm globally. What happened?


Twerking ?
Quoting 1768. catastropheadjuster:


Hey you just need to chill, that is totally wrong. She is headed to Ochners with her son in N.O. You ought to be ashamed of yourself right know for acting like this.

sheri

another thing we enjoy breakfast from her.....

Me thinks he got up on the wrong side of the couch.
Quoting 1763. belizeit:
All that 93 L needs is winds the circulation is well organised


Very well organized. If that was a U.S. radar, 93L would look 10x more impressive.
But the Yucatan will break it down quite a bit, but it will still have a nice circulation when it reappears in the southern BOC.

Most models are now taking 93L right into the Mexican coast (again). How many times this season so far?
Quoting 1756. GatorWX:


NBC covered it well. Crazy! I was a sophomore in HS. I had just entered Mr Terry's geography class right after the second plane had hit. I will never forget that day!


I work right across the street from PBIA. They shut the airport down and all of us got sent home.
SO GLAD Humberto is a fish! :) He is looking mighty mean. But a weak pathetic looking system will soon take over him.

Other than that, well....nothing. The way I like it. Tropics are quiet and another GORGEOUS day in Little Egypt today Folks. :) Pool Party!!

Natalie

Clear skies, light winds, just PERFECT. Trees are happy. Picked up .33 inches of rain in my empty wine glass yesterday I left outside. But my rain gauge on top the roof on my barn (34 feet high) confirmed the .33" and was right on the MONEY. :)

Quoting 1761. Patrap:



93L trying to come more northerly.
Can't wait to watch Johnny Football slice up Bama on Saturday.
1776. GatorWX
My older brother and I in NYC, 1992. We were up for a family reunion at our grandparent's farm. The farm was in Orange County, but we spent a day in the city. This is the only shot I have of the twin towers, but it's a good one from the Statue of Liberty. I was seven, :)

Quoting 1774. moonlightcowboy:



93L trying to come more northerly.

Meh. Doubt it Cowboy. He's putting on his sombrero riding his dark stud into Mehico. ;)
1778. SLU
LOL. The NMME October SSTs forecast calls for a full blown El Nino by April 2014. You better enjoy whatever this season has to offer because 2014 has El Nino B-U-S-T written all over it.

When do model runs typically come out?
1781. JLPR2
An anticyclone has established itself over ex-98L, it's now or never if it wants to try to develop a little.

1782. ncstorm
Good Morning folks..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
The last half of Sept becomes interesting in the East as trough comes into Midwest and Tropics open up for East coast.
Quoting 1765. yqt1001:
Humberto is the first official hurricane strength tropical cyclone in nearly a month (Utor). Unofficial typhoon Trami was 4 days later.

Peak season and we went just under 30 days without anything more than a tropical storm globally. What happened?


Did Pewa ever hit typhoon status? I think its 1-minute winds did reach 75 mph but I'm not sure of the 10-minute.
Ol'.....Mehicooooo
1786. will40
Quoting 1779. tater5500:
When do model runs typically come out?


Link

just click on each and it will tell what times
1787. GatorWX
Quoting 1772. GeoffreyWPB:


I work right across the street from PBIA. They shut the airport down and all of us got sent home.


I had a girlfriend at the time that lived on Venice Island. Atta and a couple others that trained at the airport there lived down the street. There was an incredible amount of police congregated for awhile. The whole event was such an experience. Crazy they lived less than a mile from where I often stayed.
Quoting 1771. Sfloridacat5:


Very well organized. If that was a U.S. radar, 93L would look 10x more impressive.
But the Yucatan will break it down quite a bit, but it will still have a nice circulation when it reappears in the southern BOC.

Most models are now taking 93L right into the Mexican coast (again). How many times this season so far?
We have seen systems organise while traversing Yucaton i think we will see it again
Abilene Abilene prettiest town I've ever seen
Oh Abilene....
Quoting 1786. will40:


Link

just click on each and it will tell what times



THANK YOU!


Oh, and good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


1793. yqt1001
Quoting 1784. Stoopid1:


Did Pewa ever hit typhoon status? I think its 1-minute winds did reach 75 mph but I'm not sure of the 10-minute.


1-min, yes she hit 75 mph. Only 55kts 10-min though. However, she did this before Trami, but after Utor.
Happy Birthday Dr. Masters! My birthday is the 15th! Virgos are very detail oriented, and often have photographic memories excellent for remembering technical information, and for cataloging scientific info. Make great meteorologists! Also what better month for a hurricane watcher to be born? Celebrating our first hurricane of the season! Folks on here probably think astrology is not scientific enough, but if you saw the complicated math my Mom uses to create a chart, you might think again!
Arctic sea ice up 60 percent in 2013



About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013," the Daily Mail noted.

Arctic sea ice averaged 2.35 million square miles in August 2013, as compared to the low point of 1.32 million square miles recorded on Sept. 16, 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A chart published Sept. 8 by NSIDC shows the dramatic rise this year, putting total ice cover within two standard deviations of the 30-year average.

Read More
1796. GatorWX
*global cooling!
Quoting 1757. Waltanater:
Wolfy..., if she does indeed have "serious life problems" then all the more reason she shouldn't be posting this. She really should be focusing on her priorities instead of a stupid list of food items.


Some people just lack any compassion for others beside themselves for what I see. DUDE!! This site is like a brotherhood where people tell jokes and post little whimsical things like this together with serious weather discussion. You have no right to come here and try to stop anyone from osting those things. There's one member who daily post pictures of his little dog and the sunrise. And Ailes likes to offer a virtual breakfast because I'm sure it makes her feel like she is hosting for us which by the way does good to this site because this virtual breakfast creates an environment of friendship. If you cannot get the point I suggest you find yourself another site.
Caribbean sea temps around Cayman have remained modest this year, and are lower than normal for this point in Sept as locally measured. Rain / evap cooling has kept them reasonable, for which we're all thankful. We've had more rain here this summer than I can remember.

Of course, walking into work, I heard someone talking about 'global cooling' this morning. I suppose it was bound to come out sometime, LOL.
Quoting 1795. SouthernIllinois:
Arctic sea ice up 60 percent in 2013



About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013," the Daily Mail noted.

Arctic sea ice averaged 2.35 million square miles in August 2013, as compared to the low point of 1.32 million square miles recorded on Sept. 16, 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A chart published Sept. 8 by NSIDC shows the dramatic rise this year, putting total ice cover within two standard deviations of the 30-year average.

Read More


SHHH!!
Quoting 1778. SLU:
LOL. The NMME October SSTs forecast calls for a full blown El Nino by April 2014. You better enjoy whatever this season has to offer because 2014 has El Nino B-U-S-T written all over it.



LOL
Quoting 1783. StormTrackerScott:



What is this doing on a weather blog? Inappropriate if you ask me!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
21:00 PM JST September 11 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 19.5N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.3N 145.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara Waters
Quoting 1802. congaline:

What is this doing on a weather blog? Inappropriate if you ask me!
I reported it if we all had then it would be gone already
Quoting 1788. belizeit:
We have seen systems organise while traversing Yucaton i think we will see it again

Very possible. But we've also seen systems become nake swirls crossing the Yucatan.
It usually depends on the path the system takes crossing the Yucatan and the time spent over land.

Slow moving systems can be complete destroyed trying to cross the Yucatan.
Fast moving systems can cross relatively unaffected.
1808. VR46L
Quoting 1786. will40:


Link

just click on each and it will tell what times


In addition the Euro

ECMWF Model - North America - 00z & 12z Cycles
Fall is coming. YAH!!!!!!!!! I simply CANNOT WAIT to get my brand new camera in gear and take some GORGEOUS fall leaf pictures and post them here with a blue sky as a backdrop!!!!!
1810. will40
Quoting 1805. belizeit:
I reported it if we all had then it would be gone already


i agree some on here dont realise that we control the blog and 10 flags will remove any post
Quoting 1795. SouthernIllinois:
Arctic sea ice up 60 percent in 2013



About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013," the Daily Mail noted.

Arctic sea ice averaged 2.35 million square miles in August 2013, as compared to the low point of 1.32 million square miles recorded on Sept. 16, 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A chart published Sept. 8 by NSIDC shows the dramatic rise this year, putting total ice cover within two standard deviations of the 30-year average.

Read More


Ohh ohh someone just hit the hornet nest with a snowball. Take cover... ;-)
Quoting 1811. CaneHunter031472:


Ohh ohh someone just hit the hornet nest with a snowball. Take cover... ;-)

Haha. I just post. I stand proud and tall amidst the opposition. :)

But I like the hornet's nest with a snowball saying. Cute. :-)
Quoting 1807. SouthernIllinois:


Enjoy it!
1814. GatorWX
Quoting 1811. CaneHunter031472:


Ohh ohh someone just hit the hornet nest with a snowball. Take cover... ;-)

That's the link I posted yesterday and today, without announcing what it was. I didn't want to take the direct fire lol
Consejo, Belize which is just across the Mexican Border from Chetumal, has had light but steady rain form 93L since about 6pm yesterday. Total rain fall since that time is 1.23 inches. Not exactly torrential by Central American standards.

Right now, our winds are out of 140 (SE) at 12kts, gusts to 20kts. pressure is 1010.2mb. Current rain rate is 0.14 in/hr. It 78F with 95% humidity
Quoting 1777. SouthernIllinois:

Meh. Doubt it Cowboy. He's putting on his sombrero riding his dark stud into Mehico. ;)


Nat, there's a difference between saying something looks to be trying to move more northerly, and for example, "headed north to NOLA". My observation simply denotes an observation of movement or motion.
Quoting 1817. moonlightcowboy:


Nat, there's a difference between saying something looks to be trying to move more northerly, and for example, "headed north to NOLA". My observation simply denotes an observation of movement or motion.

Your compass needs calibrating!! ;) No J/k. I understand what you are saying now...
1819. GatorWX
Quoting 1812. SouthernIllinois:

Haha. I just post. I stand proud and tall amidst the opposition. :)

But I like the hornet's nest with a snowball saying. Cute. :-)


I'd think hornets would be rather dormant in winter and in snow. Idk though, not a lot of snowfall here to base that opinion.

How was your pool party?
1821. Doss2k
I was in college in my dorm room on 9/11. I very very rarely got up in the morning to turn the tv on, but for some reason that morning I got up and decided to before heading to class. The first plane had just hit and all the news stations were trying to figure out what happened.

Then I saw the second plane come into the frame and hit and the sinking feeling that came with watching that live was intense. You instantly knew that this wasn't an accident and we have been attacked. Then realizing I had just watched at least hundreds of people die on national tv in an instant was just saddening and infuriating at the same time.

I obviously didnt go to any of my classes that day and spent every minute glued to the tv. Then the pentagon got hit and the mass hysteria of not knowing what else may be targeted. Hearing people just waking up and turning the tv on to find out what happened. People outside yelling about having been attacked. What a crazy day that was to just watch and take all of that in.

My thoughts go out to all of those affected that day whether it be directly or indirectly like most of us were. We can only hope something like that never happens again.



Quoting 1813. StormTrackerScott:


Enjoy it!

You Damn Skippy I will!
Quoting 1789. moonlightcowboy:



Cowboy....sure does seem like it's moving more North than west? What's your thought?
Quoting 1795. SouthernIllinois:
Arctic sea ice up 60 percent in 2013



About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013," the Daily Mail noted.

Arctic sea ice averaged 2.35 million square miles in August 2013, as compared to the low point of 1.32 million square miles recorded on Sept. 16, 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A chart published Sept. 8 by NSIDC shows the dramatic rise this year, putting total ice cover within two standard deviations of the 30-year average.

Read More


Well....
"A casual reader, somebody not that familiar with the subject, might well interpret that and go away thinking that for the last twelve months, the Arctic 'ice-cap' has been getting bigger all the time. Let's clear a few things up. Firstly, it's the Arctic sea-ice that Rose is referring to, which is rarely if ever termed an ice-cap. Ice-caps are the elevated ice-sheets that sit atop of landmasses - such as Greenland and Antarctica - hence the word 'cap'. So to the Arctic sea-ice: we're not yet at the annual minimum that marks the climax of the melting-season, of course, but it is true that 2013 has not 'done a spectacular' in the way that 2012 did. Conditions in the Arctic have not favoured a massive melt-out this year: instead, the sea-ice extent decrease has behaved in a rather similar manner to the 2010 season and in recent weeks has followed almost the same course. Here are a couple of dataplots, first the extent from IARC-JAXA and then the anomaly compared to other years from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:"





2012 7th Sept extent: 3,312,446 km2
2013 7th Sept extent: 4,893,380 km2

Link


The article is highly misleading and easily catches people with numbers like 60%. The real facts are much harsher.


Good morning...and welcome to the 2nd half of Hurricane Season
Quoting 1819. GatorWX:


I'd think hornets would be rather dormant in winter and in snow. Idk though, not a lot of snowfall here to base that opinion.

How was your pool party?

OMG it was AMAZING!! Drinks were flowing, my marinated Salmon we threw on the grill was INCREDIBLE, and all 7 of us girls were happy....and we all still had our tans from our July summer afternoons. How can you lose with all that!! :)

Thanks for asking, btw, Gator! :)
1827. GatorWX
Quoting 1817. moonlightcowboy:


Nat, there's a difference between saying something looks to be trying to move more northerly, and for example, "headed north to NOLA". My observation simply denotes an observation of movement or motion.


It looks to have very little motion atm, but perhaps more of a northerly one. It doesn't look like much on radar and vorticity maps show it being inland and quite far south.


1829. GatorWX
Quoting 1826. SouthernIllinois:

OMG it was AMAZING!! Drinks were flowing, my marinated Salmon we threw on the grill was INCREDIBLE, and all 7 of us girls were happy....and we all still had our tans from our July summer afternoons. How can you lose with all that!! :)

Thanks for asking, btw, Gator! :)


Wish I was there! :(

Went to the beach and had some drinks there, so wasn't all that bad. Yesterday was the first day in 20 that it didn't rain!
Quoting 1826. SouthernIllinois:

OMG it was AMAZING!! Drinks were flowing, my marinated Salmon we threw on the grill was INCREDIBLE, and all 7 of us girls were happy....and we all still had our tans from our July summer afternoons. How can you lose with all that!! :)

Thanks for asking, btw, Gator! :)


Some of us still getting September summer tans, oh that's right, rest of the CONUS is going into winter mode now....ha!
Quoting 1829. GatorWX:


Wish I was there! :(

Went to the beach and had some drinks there, so wasn't all that bad. Yesterday was the first day in 20 that it didn't rain!

Aw. You were there in spirit. ;)

Sounds cool! Glad it stayed dry and you caught some rays and some suds. haha.
1833. BA
Quoting 1669. StormTrackerScott:


Your rain went POOF! I mean I really feel for you guys.


as a resident of coastal Texas...it rained here all week (and last week), my rain barrels are over flowing...north Texas is what needs rain
Quoting 1823. cat6band:



Cowboy....sure does seem like it's moving more North than west? What's your thought?


It could be the added convection, or just a wobble. However, if you look at the steering charts, a more northwesterly motion in the suggested flow is reflected. At this point, it's hard to discern an eventual track past the peninsula, but these small movements now can make for a considerable difference down the road. It may mean the difference in a deepening storm having more time over open water, whether TX may or may not get needed rain from it, etc. And, I don't think it'll be going away either, so worth watching fairly closely. ;)
1835. ncstorm
NCEP Ensembles..backed off of Texas..

Quoting 1830. RitaEvac:


Some of us still getting September summer tans, oh that's right, rest of the CONUS is going into winter mode now....ha!

haha! OMG forgot about that! That is true you guys down there in G-Town are having the equivalent of our UV rays we normally get in JULY!! lmao!! Link
Good Morning. Interesting from a tropical standpoint. A few storms out there but nothing cruising towards or through the Caribbean, or towards the Gulf or Florida, as has been typical of a traditional Cape Verde trajectory this time of the year. Was hoping for Humberto to max out in the ocean with a nice big eye but not looking that way.

Closer to home, in North Florida, morning and pm temps cooling down a little bit with beautiful clear skies in recent days; hope we get a true Fall this year.



Has CaribBoy seen his yellow circle on ex-98L?
Quoting 1833. BA:


as a resident of coastal Texas...it rained here all week (and last week), my rain barrels are over flowing...north Texas is what needs rain


Rain barrels have no bearing on what's happening in the soil.
Quoting 1827. GatorWX:


It looks to have very little motion atm, but perhaps more of a northerly one. It doesn't look like much on radar and vorticity maps show it being inland and quite far south.




Agree on the "very little motion" which is what I mentioned the other night, a near stall in the weaker steering. The peninsula is quite flat and it won't have any trouble pulling moisture in from any of the three sides to water.
Quoting 1840. moonlightcowboy:


Agree on the "very little motion" which is what I mentioned the other night, a near stall in the weaker steering. The peninsula is quite flat and it won't having trouble pulling moisture in from any of the three sides to water.

Still think you are one of the tops on here in forecasting ability and your posts. Well done Cowboy!!!
1842. GatorWX
Quoting 1831. SouthernIllinois:

Aw. You were there in spirit. ;)

Sounds cool! Glad it stayed dry and you caught some rays and some suds. haha.


I'm everywhere in spirit ;)
Quoting 1839. RitaEvac:


Rain barrels have no bearing on what's happening in the soil.


Could sure use some rain in the DC area. Fortunately the first
half of summer was very very wet.
Quoting 1842. GatorWX:


I'm everywhere in spirit ;)

NICE!
1845. GatorWX
Quoting 1840. moonlightcowboy:


Agree on the "very little motion" which is what I mentioned the other night, a near stall in the weaker steering. The peninsula is quite flat and it won't having trouble pulling moisture in from any of the three sides to water.


Waves don't always have trouble spinning up with the added friction of land there either.
1846. BA
Quoting 1839. RitaEvac:


Rain barrels have no bearing on what's happening in the soil.


also has no bearing on the past two months of rain nearly every day...I can tell you that here on the island we don't need anymore rain, north Texas is what needs it
Quoting 1840. moonlightcowboy:


Agree on the "very little motion" which is what I mentioned the other night, a near stall in the weaker steering. The peninsula is quite flat and it won't having trouble pulling moisture in from any of the three sides to water.


Sounds like a set up for development...any idea how long will that high pressure over the southern Gulf states be in place ?
Quoting 1826. SouthernIllinois:

OMG it was AMAZING!! Drinks were flowing, my marinated Salmon we threw on the grill was INCREDIBLE, and all 7 of us girls were happy....and we all still had our tans from our July summer afternoons. How can you lose with all that!! :)

Thanks for asking, btw, Gator! :)


Drinks flowing... I like that. Y'all should try Gulf Shores Alabama sometime. I had a blast there last weekend. And yes drinks were flowing too including a little bit of Mississippi moonshine :-)
Quoting 1848. CaneHunter031472:


Drinks flowing... I like that. Y'all should try Gulf Shores Alabama sometime. I had a blast there last weekend. And yes drinks were flowing too including a little bit of Mississippi moonshine :-)

Oooooooh yeah. Moonshine. I miss those hot sizzlin' nites. lol
1850. GatorWX
Quoting 1846. BA:


also has no bearing on the past two months of rain nearly every day...I can tell you that here on the island we don't need anymore rain, north Texas is what needs it


Is that wave, your avatar, from TX?
How much did we miss the record by?

Seems to have spun up only recently
See that folks. This year and next year (due to 2014 El Nino rolling in) may not have much in the offering in the tropics. Looks like we will have to wait till 2015 to have lots of activity in the tropics, along with increased threats. Remember the years that end in a digit "5". They were not the most pleasant or friendly to the United States.
Quoting 1778. SLU:
LOL. The NMME October SSTs forecast calls for a full blown El Nino by April 2014. You better enjoy whatever this season has to offer because 2014 has El Nino B-U-S-T written all over it.

I'm predicting a monster snowstorm something this January for Central Illinois!
I seriously am ON THIS!!
Quoting 1848. CaneHunter031472:


Drinks flowing... I like that. Y'all should try Gulf Shores Alabama sometime. I had a blast there last weekend. And yes drinks were flowing too including a little bit of Mississippi moonshine :-)


There's nothing like Gulf Shores and Orange Beach area.... I live here and enjoy it all year long....


Taco :o)
Quoting 1852. GeorgiaStormz:
How much did we miss the record by?


Three hours.
Quoting 1852. GeorgiaStormz:
How much did we miss the record by?

Like 3 mins. haha
1859. VR46L
First one this year I am getting an uncomfortable feeling about..

1860. Torito
Quoting 1852. GeorgiaStormz:
How much did we miss the record by?

Seems to have spun up only recently



hurricane status at 5:00 AM, 8:00 AM was the record, so 3 hours too soon.
Quoting 1851. GeoffreyWPB:


Looks like TD8 redux...
Flash Flood in Afghanistan on Wednesday, 11 September, 2013 at 10:32 (10:32 AM) UTC.
Description
Four people lost their lives and 20 others went missing as flood and landslide hit a mountainous village in Zibak district of the northeast Badakhshan province on Tuesday, a local official said Wednesday. "A heavy flood which triggered landslide hit Askitol village in Zibak district yesterday which claimed four lives and 20 others including women and children have gone missing," the governor of Zibak district, Mir Ahmad Shah Zigham said The natural disaster had also washed away 34 houses, 140 head cattle and destroyed 100 acres farmlands and several gardens, the official added. He also added that rescue operations are underway to recover the possible dead bodies.
Quoting 1859. VR46L:
First one this year I am getting an uncomfortable feeling about..


What? Our Mehico bound tropical mess?
1865. Torito
Quoting 1852. GeorgiaStormz:
How much did we miss the record by?

Seems to have spun up only recently



looks like an eye on the last frame. :P
Quoting 1865. Torito:



looks like an eye on the last frame. :P

PINHOLE!!!!!
Quoting 1795. SouthernIllinois:
Arctic sea ice up 60 percent in 2013



About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013," the Daily Mail noted.

Arctic sea ice averaged 2.35 million square miles in August 2013, as compared to the low point of 1.32 million square miles recorded on Sept. 16, 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A chart published Sept. 8 by NSIDC shows the dramatic rise this year, putting total ice cover within two standard deviations of the 30-year average.

Read More

There's been discussion of this on the climate blog thread, so this doesn't need to be elaborated much on here. Bottom line...there are numerous reasons why this news article - and the one it sources - are very misleading.

The observations are not inconsistent with existing predictions, and actually as the ice cover decreases in coverage, fluctuations in area and extent can remain exactly the same yet the percent change (increases or decreases) will grow substantially, simply due to arithmetic.
Quoting 1832. ncstorm:
00z Euro Ensembles on Humberto..west..



There is no doubt, Humberto is going to be around for a while, but not much has changed with the long range track. It still gets turned north well to the east of Bermuda. It may make it to 52 or 53 west, but thats about it. Here it is 10 days from now.

1870. VR46L
Quoting 1864. SouthernIllinois:

What? Our Mehico bound tropical mess?


Well I hope it only has a quick dip in the BOC and gets on dry ground ...and not Meander and get pulled elsewhere ...
1871. Torito
Quoting 1866. SouthernIllinois:

PINHOLE!!!!!


YERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR! xD
1872. GatorWX
Quote from a met I know in Houston....

"There are things expected to be going on with the upper air pattern over TX which could alter this current track reasoning.

An incoming trough into the Pacific NW will help to kick out a trough currently over the western US toward the central plains by late this weekend which in turn allows a breaking down of the ridging over TX and the formation of a weakness in the height field. The blocking “protecting” high that has kept all tropical systems south of the US Gulf coast this summer shifts eastward toward the MS Valley and SE US opening a northward pathway for a western Gulf of Mexico system to come northward. The big question is does the southern Gulf system make landfall in MX prior to the ridge breaking down or is it still over the water. "
93L
1875. Torito
Quoting 1872. GatorWX:



tropical depression status almost? :P
1877. Murko
Don't believe everything you read in the Daily Fail. Arctic ice hits new low: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2396 4372
Quoting 1870. VR46L:


Well I hope it only has a quick dip in the BOC and gets on dry ground ...and not Meander and get pulled elsewhere ...

No, I want a meander and a spin up that wrapped LOADS of tropical moisture in it and that catapults right up to the Lone Star State on RitaEvac's doorstep along with other Texans.
Quoting 1870. VR46L:


Well I hope it only has a quick dip in the BOC and gets on dry ground ...and not Meander and get pulled elsewhere ...


Yes, although the projected 2 ft of rain, seems to imply otherwise. Don't even wish that on Texas. Too much of a good thing . . .
1880. GatorWX
1881. GatorWX
At this moment, 12 years ago, the first tower fell.
Expect a large beastly circulation when this thing finally ramps up. All attention will be on the GOM soon.
Quoting 1861. GeoffreyWPB:

An eye and moving NNE
Quoting 1883. RitaEvac:
Expect a large beastly circulation when this thing finally ramps up. All attention will be on the GOM soon.

PLEASE!!!!
It's alive! The curtain has parted and the Atlantic is putting on a show. The convection near the YP is compelling.
1887. VR46L
Quoting 1878. SouthernIllinois:

No, I want a meander and a spin up that wrapped LOADS of tropical moisture in it and that catapults right up to the Lone Star State on RitaEvac's doorstep along with other Texans.


I know what you are saying ....but I just don't know this one could be, the only takes one storm to make a season saying
Quoting 1879. daddyjames:


Yes, although the projected 2 ft of rain, seems to imply otherwise. Don't even wish that on Texas. Too much of a good thing . . .


Hopefully the 12Z model suite will be better for you guys. As all the models this morning are now showing a strong ridge camping out over Texas basically shutting down any chance of rain except for the Brownsville area.
Will recon have time to get in 93L before it moves inland?

Quoting 1873. RitaEvac:
Quote from a met I know in Houston....

"There are things expected to be going on with the upper air pattern over TX which could alter this current track reasoning.

An incoming trough into the Pacific NW will help to kick out a trough currently over the western US toward the central plains by late this weekend which in turn allows a breaking down of the ridging over TX and the formation of a weakness in the height field. The blocking “protecting” high that has kept all tropical systems south of the US Gulf coast this summer shifts eastward toward the MS Valley and SE US opening a northward pathway for a western Gulf of Mexico system to come northward. The big question is does the southern Gulf system make landfall in MX prior to the ridge breaking down or is it still over the water. "
This is what it looks like on this morning's run of the GFS, comes down to timing.

1891. VR46L
Quoting 1876. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Thats Nasty ... I know its Mocked up but if its right ,shudder!
I was just eying the trough..

Quoting 1856. taco2me61:


There's nothing like Gulf Shores and Orange Beach area.... I live here and enjoy it all year long....


Taco :o)


The beach is Amazing, but the night life is even better. Bait shop.. I love hanging out there.
Quoting 1889. GeoffreyWPB:
Will recon have time to get in 93L before it moves inland?



It has already moved well inland.



1895. BA
Quoting 1850. GatorWX:


Is that wave, your avatar, from TX?


heh, I wish, we get perfect waves here only a handful of times a year...otherwise, it's mostly choppy/windy
Quoting 1887. VR46L:


I know what you are saying ....but I just don't know this one could be, the only takes one storm to make a season saying


This past Sunday the Houston Chronicle ran a column about how real estate on Galveston Island is finally picking back up again. The reasons? People have short memory spans and there's a lot of money coming to this part of the state.
1897. SLU
Humberto could pass for an 80kt hurricane.

Quoting 1893. CaneHunter031472:


The beach is Amazing, but the night life is even better. Bait shop.. I love hanging out there.


Agree 1000% :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:


It has already moved well inland.



Whoops! Guess that answers my question! :) I should pay attention to my own posts!
Infact ex 98L's 850 vorticity looks better than 93L's.

1901. GatorWX
Quoting 1895. BA:


heh, I wish, we get perfect waves here only a handful of times a year...otherwise, it's mostly choppy/windy


I know the feeling! Cold fronts and tropical cyclones give us the best shot for surf.
Quoting 1897. SLU:
Humberto could pass for an 80kt hurricane.


It looks like crap.
1903. VR46L
Quoting 1901. GatorWX:


I know the feeling! Cold fronts and tropical cyclones give us the best shot for surf.

YUP YUP!
Quoting 1887. VR46L:


I know what you are saying ....but I just don't know this one could be, the only takes one storm to make a season saying

Depends on who gets it!
1906. VR46L
But here is the fun one !



ex 98L looks great on the 850 vorticity maps. Could be a bump up coming at 2pm.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 101444
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 10 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N 92W AT 12/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE GLOBAL HAWK MISSION FOR 12/1100Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
BUSY INTERSECTION: Last night, NASA's all-sky fireball network recorded nearly two dozen fireballs streaking over the southern USA. Their orbits are shown here, all intersecting at a certain blue dot in space:

In the diagram, the orbits are color coded by velocity. Speeds ranged from 16 to 71 km/s (36,000 to 159,000 mph).

Most of these fast-moving meteoroids were "sporadics"--that is, random specks of space dust associated with no organized debris stream. The inner solar system is littered with such meteoroids, which strike Earth every day as our planet orbits the sun.

However, some of the meteoroids were not so random. The NASA cameras captured five epsilon Perseids, members of a little-known shower that peaks every year in early-to-mid September. The parent comet is unknown, but there is little doubt than an organized epsilon Perseid debris stream exists. In most Septembers, the epsilon Perseid rate is little more than 5 meteors per hour, but in 2008 the shower produced an outburst five times as active. Perhaps 2013 is a good year for epsilon Perseids, too.


No more summertime sadness, it's on again...
On the latest in the season developing hurricane thingy....
Currently Best Track list Humberto as becoming a hurricane at 12Z, which previous blog entries have said was the previous record time........... so is it a tie for the record?


AL 09 2013091106 BEST 0 156N 287W 60 995 TS 34
AL 09 2013091106 BEST 0 156N 287W 60 995 TS 50
AL 09 2013091112 BEST 0 163N 290W 65 989 HU 34
AL 09 2013091112 BEST 0 163N 290W 65 989 HU 50
AL 09 2013091112 BEST 0 163N 290W 65 989 HU 64
1912. VR46L
Quoting 1905. SouthernIllinois:

Depends on who gets it!


LOL!!!
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:


It has already moved well inland.





If that's the track the models are now predicting, I don't see much happening with this invest then. What a tease :-(
1914. Torito
Quoting 1902. SouthernIllinois:

It looks like crap.


it has a pinhole eye though. :P
Quoting 1914. Torito:


it has a pinhole eye though. :P

Exactly! That's all that counts!
Quoting 1900. StormTrackerScott:
Infact ex 98L's 850 vorticity looks better than 93L's.



Hi Scott-

ex-98L can still get its act together. This time of the year anything can and will happen.

There is lots of lightening and thunder now in St. Lucie County.
Did Dr Masters do a blog on this? Sorry but I haven't been on in the past few days.

Link


Artic sea ice is up 60% from last year
Quoting 1913. CaneHunter031472:


If that's the track the models are now predicting, I don't see much happening with this invest then. What a tease :-(

Touche
1919. GatorWX
Quoting 1904. SouthernIllinois:

YUP YUP!


About as good as it gets here: Ivan '04.

Quoting 1888. StormTrackerScott:


Hopefully the 12Z model suite will be better for you guys. As all the models this morning are now showing a strong ridge camping out over Texas basically shutting down any chance of rain except for the Brownsville area.


Not wishing it on Mexico either.
Quoting 1883. RitaEvac:
Expect a large beastly circulation when this thing finally ramps up. All attention will be on the GOM soon.


Interesting you should say that. We have a big spinner building off the Florida Georgia coast right now. However, even though the surface circulation is confused, the rain is trying to line up in accordance to the low to our southwest... perhaps the beginning of squall lines or feeder bands. You can see the offshore spinner ripping the tops off the thunderstorms as they try and form on radar..
Poking out an eye to see our reactions to him trolling the record;

Quoting 1916. rmbjoe1954:


Hi Scott-

ex-98L can still get its act together. This time of the year anything can and will happen.

There is lots of lightening and thunder now in St. Lucie County.


Yeah I can see that. Stay safe!

Humberto close up.. Click pic for loop.

Quoting 1924. Skyepony:
Humberto close up.. Click pic for loop.

Bonita.
Quoting 1917. scottsvb:
Did Dr Masters do a blog on this? Sorry but I haven't been on in the past few days.

Link


Artic sea ice is up 60% from last year
Quoting 1910. RitaEvac:
No more summertime sadness, it's on again...


Summertime Blues.. ain't no cure..

1928. GatorWX
It's coming together. It does appear to have a northerly motion at the moment.


Quoting 1920. daddyjames:


Not wishing it on Mexico either.
Well at this angle entering land, I'm starting to think that we won't see much coming out of this, but it still has model support so we'll see.

Quoting 1917. scottsvb:
Did Dr Masters do a blog on this? Sorry but I haven't been on in the past few days.

Link


Artic sea ice is up 60% from last year


See my post #1824.
OMG LUV Summertime Sadness now! It SO grew on me. SOOOOOOO....us 7 girls yesterday at the pool party starting belting it out in the pool when it came on the radio. It was HILARIOUS but we sounded so awful! haha.
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET September 11 2013
=================================

The easternmost circulation may have a surface circulation located near 5.1S 88.3E (according to OSCAT pass at 0545Z) associated with a 1006 hPa low. The associated convective activity is locally strong but is still fluctuating and disorganized.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours
Link my new blog!!
Quoting 1931. SouthernIllinois:
OMG LUV Summertime Sadness now! It SO grew on me. SOOOOOOO....us 7 girls yesterday at the pool party starting belting it out in the pool when it came on the radio. It was HILARIOUS but we sounded so awful! haha.

Lana Del Ray?
Need to quit watching models, and watch satellite loops of present movement. The storm is not gonna do what models are showing, it's always different, and the models will be playing catch up


WE getting 40 mph gusts from 93L, this could be one hugh storm in the GOM.
Quoting 1934. sporteguy03:

Lana Del Ray?

YUP. That's the one. We had a wide variety of noise on but that song we had a big laugh at our hideous karoke attempt....lol
1938. GatorWX
Quoting 1933. hurricanes2018:
Link my new blog!!


Your blogs have more comments than Dr Master's. ;)
Quoting 1931. SouthernIllinois:
OMG LUV Summertime Sadness now! It SO grew on me. SOOOOOOO....us 7 girls yesterday at the pool party starting belting it out in the pool when it came on the radio. It was HILARIOUS but we sounded so awful! haha.


7? you have pic? lol
Quoting 1939. RitaEvac:


7? you have pic? lol

Hmmmm. why yes, i do. my friend didn't drop her camera in the pool like a goofball this time plus i tried my new camera too. Stay tuned. I will post in my blog sometime.... :)
Quoting 1929. CaneHunter031472:
Well at this angle entering land, I'm starting to think that we won't see much coming out of this, but it still has model support so we'll see.



We'll see what happens, but the last two runs of the GFS have it meandering around the coast of Mexico for a week or more. If this holds out, and enough precipitation affects land areas, well this could be pretty devastating - regardless of how much it strengthens.
here we go!!! fall weather for the east coast!! we have one and two and three!!! wow! keep all the tropical storms and hurricanes out to sea for the usa this week and next weekend!
1944. GatorWX
A few moments ago, 12 years ago, the second tower fell.
In think this is ex-98L and the 10% chance from the NHC. May surprise.

1946. centex
Will wait another day before I write off 93L moving up into south Texas. The last 24 hour change keeps it in Mexico. Still hoping it will switch back tomorrow. Hermine was last real beneficial system I remember. Took this ironic photo after Hermine in Cedar Park TX on small lake on Brushy Creek. Preview cropped the "Keep Texas Beautiful" so see it actually shows.




Regarding 93L-any guesses on this one? I'm asking because Port Aransas bound on the 19th for big reunion. This could put a real damper on things.
I'm seeing what a couple of people on here are seeing...a N'ly movement with 93L. And that wouldn't be too good for anyone. As the saying goes (I think), the stronger a storm gets, the more poleward it goes...everyone on the entire Gulfcoast should probably be watching what this one does.
Quoting 1942. daddyjames:


We'll see what happens, but the last two runs of the GFS have it meandering around the coast of Mexico for a week or more. If this holds out, and enough precipitation affects land areas, well this could be pretty devastating - regardless of how much it strengthens.


I hope not, but I do hope Texas gets the rain they really need it.
Quoting 1946. centex:
Will wait another day before I write off 93L moving up into south Texas. The last 24 hour change keeps it in Mexico. Still hoping it will switch back tomorrow. Hermine was last real beneficial system I remember. Took this ironic photo after Hermine in Cedar Park TX on small lake on Brushy Creek. Preview cropped the "Keep Texas Beautiful" so see it actually shows.






Just saw your post. Thanks for updating on 93L.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1952. air360
That spin off the Florida coast is crazy. It always amazes me to see spin like that yet it not really be anything. Funny how something can look horrible yet not be anything at all
Quoting 1929. CaneHunter031472:
Well at this angle entering land, I'm starting to think that we won't see much coming out of this, but it still has model support so we'll see.



Wow, the models really don't know what to think of the pattern. Looks like it'll have several days over water, some want to take it north, others want to bury it into Mexico. ECMWF/GFS solution seems the most likely.

Humberto is intensifying.
Quoting 1954. moonlightcowboy:


Hard to tell, Hanna. A couple of things you can watch, a sfc map and a water vapor loop. Look at the central plains front on the map, then look at it in the wv loop, and you can sort of discern what it's doing, how it's moving, how fast it's moving, how deep and its strength. Like always, it'll be about the timing and strength of the storm. We wait, we watch! :)




Thanks for the great info Moonlight! :)
Quoting 1838. GeoffreyWPB:
Has CaribBoy seen his yellow circle on ex-98L?
Looks like a squall line headed for the Antilles.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 111435
TCDAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...
WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.

HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY
PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 18.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 20.0N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 23.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 24.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

All of that land interaction with 93L, and what may or may not happen to the circulation after the interaction, is a big x factor and there is no way the models can figure that out to a final solution. Way to early to have a clue of what may happen with this one or where it will end up.

Just watch it over the next 4 days.