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A Rare Tropical Cyclone-Free September 8th for Earth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013

It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be the ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell, as a strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph towards the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 91L is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday, and 91L has the potential to intensify into a hurricane by late in the week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day odds of development at 70%, and the 5-day odds at 90%.


Figure 1. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 8, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by the end of the week. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles north of the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 10% and 5-day odds at 30% in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TRMM pass of 91L earlier..
Quoting 987. HurricaneHunterJoe:
How goes it K Man?


I've had one day off since coming back from New Orleans on August 25. Took an extra shift Wednesday because my boss asked me to, and I respect him; plus I need the money. I'm absolutely exhausted at this point, though.

Finally off tomorrow, then I have jury duty the week after, which will put me off three consecutive days, which I really need at this point.
Looks like at least a couple more strong waves will come off next week.

Oh Man! Busy busy busy.....has it's good points and bad points. Hang in there!
Here's a recent cloudsat of the west edge of 09L. Between this & TRMM it has pretty good height. Not as much as Gabrielle but nor really shallow either.

Average model verification for 09L.. GFS & AVNO doing the best.
SAB thinks 09L is a 35 knot tropical storm.

09/0600 UTC 13.3N 22.3W T2.5/2.5 09L -- Atlantic
Quoting 1003. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looks like at least a couple more strong waves will come off next week.


That one that is getting close to the coast now wrecked Nigeria.
AL, 09, 2013090906, , BEST, 0, 133N, 223W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 50, 1011, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,
Here they come!!! cho-choo!!! good morning just getting off
Looks like NHC will go up to 30 to 40% because ex gabby looking way better!
Still wish TX could get some of this rain and tropical action...but it doesnt look likely this year :/
09L floater link just died.

think we have Humberto

ATCF:

AL, 09, 2013090906, , BEST, 0, 133N, 223W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 50, 1011, 200, 50, 0, 0, L

Quoting 1016. evilpenguinshan:
09L floater link just died.

think we have Humberto

ATCF:

AL, 09, 2013090906, , BEST, 0, 133N, 223W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 50, 1011, 200, 50, 0, 0, L

yea we do civicane posted
Quoting 1014. Stormchaser121:
Still wish TX could get some of this rain and tropical action...but it doesnt look likely this year :/


Are you guys still locked into that death ridge pattern? Has it backed off at all relative to the previous years?
Quoting 1018. HurricaneHunterJoe:
yeah i saw they missed it joe lol
Quoting 1019. KoritheMan:


Are you guys still locked into that death ridge pattern? Has it backed off at all relative to the previous years?
kori any thoughts on the potential home brewing?
Quoting 1021. bigwes6844:
kori any thoughts on the potential home brewing?


Yeah, what's been showing on the GFS will go into Mexico if it doesn't have too much competition from a competing disturbance in the east Pacific.

Our turn may come later in the month, about two weeks, when the GFS and GFS ensembles show a large area of low pressure developing in the western Caribbean Sea and moving northwestward or northward.
Both 06z SHIPS and LGEM forecast 09L a little stronger than the previous run.

V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 60 75 89 101 107 105 99 89 80

V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 49 55 68 83 91 90 83 75 67 60
Quoting 1019. KoritheMan:


Are you guys still locked into that death ridge pattern? Has it backed off at all relative to the previous years?

Its here...then its gone...it comes and goes BUT its in the 4 corners region. Sometimes it moves east completely away. I WANT IT GONE >:(
Quoting 1022. KoritheMan:


Yeah, what's been showing on the GFS will go into Mexico if it doesn't have too much competition from a competing disturbance in the east Pacific.

Our turn may come later in the month, about two weeks, when the GFS and GFS ensembles show a large area of low pressure developing in the western Caribbean Sea and moving northwestward or northward.
how strong they thinking?
AL, 09, 201309090600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1330N, 2240W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JL, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T, ~4/10s banding with white = DT 3.0 however followed
1029. GatorWX
lol,



It's still there.
Quoting 1026. bigwes6844:
how strong they thinking?


A couple of the ensemble members over the last few days have actually shown a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

I wouldn't really worry about specific probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis two weeks in advance; the synoptic pattern being shown during that time is more likely to transpire (though still perhaps not) than individual forecasts of what's more than likely a ghost storm.

Bottom line is that the 500 mb pattern being shown on the GFS and its ensembles over the last several days for that timeframe is one that is very conducive to something spinning up in the Caribbean and moving north. We may not get anything at all, but climatology and the MJO favor it.
Quoting 1028. Civicane49:


cat 3 in three days???? first major maybe?
Quoting 1031. bigwes6844:
cat 3 in three days???? first major maybe?


A distinct possibility if the inner core establishes quickly.
ex gabby
Quoting 1032. Civicane49:


A distinct possibility if the inner core establishes quickly.
i tell ya one thing civ humberto looking good so lets see if it could do it before the 12th
Quoting 1030. KoritheMan:


A couple of the ensemble members over the last few days have actually shown a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

I wouldn't really worry about specific probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis two weeks in advance; the synoptic pattern being shown during that time is more likely to transpire (though still perhaps not) than individual forecasts of what's more than likely a ghost storm.

Bottom line is that the 500 mb pattern being shown on the GFS and its ensembles over the last several days for that timeframe is one that is very conducive to something spinning up in the Caribbean and moving north. We may not get anything at all, but climatology and the MJO favor it.
oh my! but the two highs are looking more likely now so the chances of seeing it is real like we discuss higher pressures in the north lower in the Caribbean
1036. GatorWX
Funny how little this system has moved and how slowly it's done it throughout its life.

09L is slowly organizing. Once the inner core establishes, rapid strengthening is likely to occur.

looking better gabby. could we have gabby and humberto hmmm??
Quoting 1037. Civicane49:
09L is slowly organizing. Once the inner core establishes, rapid strengthening is likely to occur.



i'd like to see a good microwave pass to see how the inner core is doing before trying to predict ri, though it appears rather possible given the cold cloud tops and apparent organization.
Wesley, just for laughs:



This was member 1 (of 20) on the GFS ensembles as of the 0z run on Saturday. Full-fledged hurricane along the Louisiana coast.

It's not going to pan out this way, but it goes to show that the GFS is trying to respond to a favorable 500 mb pattern for Gulf tropical cyclones.
Quoting 1040. KoritheMan:
Wesley, just for laughs:



This was member 1 (of 20) on the GFS ensembles as of the 0z run on Saturday. Full-fledged hurricane along the Louisiana coast.

It's not going to pan out this way, but it goes to show that the GFS is trying to respond to a favorable 500 mb pattern for Gulf tropical cyclones.


how strong is the hurricane in this run? (mainly for kicks)
Expect Tropical Storm Humberto in the next advisory shortly.
Quoting 1040. KoritheMan:
Wesley, just for laughs:



This was member 1 (of 20) on the GFS ensembles as of the 0z run on Saturday. Full-fledged hurricane along the Louisiana coast.

It's not going to pan out this way, but it goes to show that the GFS is trying to respond to a favorable 500 mb pattern for Gulf tropical cyclones.
wow thats crazy wats da pressure on that?
HUMBERTO, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2013, TS, O, 2013090712, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092013
Quoting 1041. TheGreatHodag:


how strong is the hurricane in this run? (mainly for kicks)


Quoting 1043. bigwes6844:
wow thats crazy wats da pressure on that?



The website I pulled that from only goes to 980 mb, and it appears to be right at the threshold of that on the model.

Assuming the typical wind/pressure relationship applies, it would be a marginal Category 2.
Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
09/0600 UTC 13.3N 22.3W T2.5/2.5 09L -- Atlantic
We have Humberto. 8-0-0
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 22.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 22.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 22.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.6N 24.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.1N 26.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.9N 27.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 28.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.0N 29.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N 30.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.2N 33.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 22.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 22.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
almost showing a potent cat 2 90 mph
Quoting 1052. bigwes6844:
almost showing a potent cat 2 90 mph
90mph is cat 1.
watchout.azores...snooze
*
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 22.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS HAVING RECENTLY
FORMED VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 34-KT ADT ESTIMATE. AS A
RESULT...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HUMBERTO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME MODEST
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING AT 280/10 KT...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERODING THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SOUTHEASTWARD TO
WESTERN AFRICA. THIS RADICAL CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 96
HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN HUMBERTO WESTWARD OVER HIGHER LATITUDES AND
COOLER WATER. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS
SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSSE.

MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 12 KT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
MODELS TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 8 KT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST
72 HOURS. SUCH WEAK SHEAR CONDITIONS EXISTING WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE 200 MB CYCLONIC OUTDRAFT PATTERN BY 72
HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE. AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72
HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE HUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C
SSTS AT THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED PRIOR TO THE 72-HOUR TIME PERIOD. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS
SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.4N 22.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 13.6N 24.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 14.1N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 14.9N 27.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.2N 28.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 20.0N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.5N 30.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 25.2N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
got three days to go before the record humberto is the last shot at hurricane status
Quoting 1053. HurricaneAndre:
90mph is cat 1.
potential i was tryna say andre
06z GFS is running.

15 hours

First visible satellite image of Humberto. Satellite presentation looks rather impressive.

989 mb at 45 hours

57 hours

Good morning all. Looks like we might finally have a big-un brewing out in the Atlantic. Hopefully, he just stays over water and we can enjoy watching him blossom into a classic hurricane. Looks like we can celebrate the peak of hurricane season tomorrow after all. Guess the season is not a bust after all. Bustcasters...crow is tastier battered and deep fried! LOL
06z GFS shows Humberto becoming a Category 2 hurricane by 69 hours.



87 hours

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 71 and feels like 76 degrees, expecting another 96 degree day with heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: traditional omelet with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, eggs and hash brown, cheesy grits and shrimp, sausage links and/or bacon,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 1070. prcane4you:
A big fish to track that going nowhere


Yep, for those of us fascinated with the formation, tracking, etc of hurricanes, a big fish track going nowhere (out to sea not damaging property or killing people) is preferable to: (1) a storm that makes landfall and destroys property, causes floods and kills people and animals or (2) nothing to track.
So...POOF to you troll.
1075. GatorWX
Morning!



73.5 F, 97% RH, 73 F DP, 30% chance of rain

Good Morning! See we've gone up to 90 mph this morning. Still going West at 11 mph. Hmmmm.. Don't almost all models have it NW by now? I guess we'll see how long this west movement holds.
1083. GatorWX
Hope you enjoy watching those people. Don't be late for the bus now.
Quoting 1066. Civicane49:
57 hours



For you TX lurkers out there, there are a number of models suggesting a Hermine II in a few days. That bright little spark in the WGOM might be it, it may have crossed.



Good morning. I see we have Humberto. :)And that the cone now shows a 90mph storm before weakening..
Everybody Happy Happy Happy
G'mornin Gator. That wv shot looks a lot more like late Oct or early Nov than middle of Sept.
Good morning all. Looks like more rain here in Nassau, but Gabrielle's remnant seems headed away from us, so I'll take it!

Hope you all have a good week, and I am watching this Humberto to see if we get a bang or a whimper... LOL

Later, all.
Good morning everybody!

Quoting 1088. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!



Next two CVs are lowriders... smooth sailin all the way W.
Huberto formed a few hours in advance, making this possibility. This might become a cat 2, and in the rarest case of it reach the U.S...
Humberto becomes another Gaston....
No comments on the blog until December 1st.

Everyone goes into field position behind their computers.
Quoting 1091. pie314271:
Huberto formed a few hours in advance, making this possibility. This might become a cat 2, and in the rarest case of it reach the U.S...


No way this is coming back that far west!

I'll eat crow if it does tho.
1095. Torito
Humbertooooooooooooooooooooo


A good Monday to everyone...

Florida has it's shield up!
1098. beell
Quoting 1088. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!



Just a smidge of SAL to the north of Humberto.
1099. IKE
Lower 48 looks safe for the foreseeable future. Humbertooo the first cane of the season. A fish after the Cape Verdes. Is Jim Cantore there?

Day 101. 82 days to go.

Totals.....

8-0-0. Plus another TD.
Humberto is obviously more intense than 35kts at this point. Visible satellite imagery will be very helpful in locating the center this morning to see if it really is as far east as ADT is estimating.




Land-blob over MN-ND-SD area.

Also: does Humberto have any type of a CDO yet?
so tough for them to form in the west atlantic this yr. the switch is on but we need something to ignite it
1104. GatorWX
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2013 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 13:26:37 N Lon : 23:05:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1009.8mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -8.4C Cloud Region Temp : -42.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees
1105. GatorWX
Quoting 1086. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin Gator. That wv shot looks a lot more like late Oct or early Nov than middle of Sept.


I know. Still just as warm and muggy out there though. Fairly stable atmosphere however. Brief thunderstorms locally yesterday, but that trough has really progressed south since then.
1106. GatorWX
And morning to you Doug!
1107. MahFL
Quoting 1086. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin Gator. That wv shot looks a lot more like late Oct or early Nov than middle of Sept.


Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.
1108. SLU
...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9
Location: 13.4N 23.3W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
1109. beell
Well, at least one active station reporting METARs in the NE corner of the Cape Verde archipelago. On the island of Sal.

GVAC
Station Elevation: 54 m

This is about 200 nm NNW of the 8AM AST position posted by SLU (below).



1110. SLU
Winds at SAL are under 20kts

8:00 AM 80.6 F 87.1 F 77.0 F 89% 29.86 in 4.3 mi NE 16.1 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
9:00 AM 78.8 F - 77.0 F 94% 29.89 in 1.9 mi NE 17.3 mph - N/A Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain
10:00 AM 77.0 F - 75.2 F 94% 29.89 in 5.0 mi ENE 18.4 mph - N/A Rain Rain
1111. GatorWX
Quoting 1108. SLU:
...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9
Location: 13.4�N 23.3�W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


1005mb and 40 mph?? Sounds like a bit of an anomaly.
Quoting 1107. MahFL:
Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.
If it's slightly cooler than normal in your neck of the woods, enjoy it, because unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, chances are it won't last long:

cpc

cpc
1113. GatorWX
Quoting 1107. MahFL:


Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.


Yesterday morning was 71, best we were going here. 73.5 today. 95-100% every morning though, so.... Not too dry at the surface.
1114. GatorWX
Quoting 1112. Neapolitan:
If it's slightly cooler than normal in your neck of the woods, enjoy it, because unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, chances are it won't last long:

cpc

cpc


99 forecast in Minneapolis today. That's a big high out west.
1115. SLU
Quoting 1111. GatorWX:


1005mb and 40 mph?? Sounds like a bit of an anomaly.


Yeah, I believe the winds are closer to 50mph.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 091140
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
800 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 23.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.3 WEST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING THE ISLANDS
OF MAIO AND SANTIAGO...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OF FOGO AND BRAVA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

1117. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE DISPLACING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW AROUND THAT TIME IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



1118. GatorWX
Quoting 1115. SLU:


Yeah, I believe the winds are closer to 50mph.


No way the pressure is <1005mb, which that would suggest. That's quite removed from the center. I wouldn't be as surprised to see winds in some of the outer bands 40-50, but in gusts most likely.
The models have been so unbelievable this season that I still don't believe Humberto will will traverse the open atlantic. my take is that the storm will not intensify as the models are suggesting at this stage. what I am seeing is Humberto will continue west for awhile being under the influence of the strong ULL to it's west at 55W.
bad grammar early in the morning... ugh. Figured it out on the third read.

It looks like the Atlantic will be THE ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell. , as A strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph toward the Cape Verde Islands.

That GFS IR Simulation is how I imagine future 'casting will look, weird and a little fuzzy.

I guess my grammar isn't any better, but it is early here.
And the incredible bust rolls on...7-0-0. But wait. Humberto has hit a line drive to east Atlantic where the forecast is bobbled. He's not letting up at all. He's making a run strait for cain...... This storm can make records happen out there.................



From one of my favorite songs
1123. GatorWX
Quoting 1118. GatorWX:


No way the pressure is <1005mb, which that would suggest. That's quite removed from the center. I wouldn't be as surprised to see winds in some of the outer bands 40-50, but in gusts most likely.


For whatever reason, I glanced fast thinking it was a reporting station lol. I suppose 50 is certainly in the realm. I still have a hard time thinking it's going to blowup out there into a large system.

I haven't been paying much, if any, attention to it so far.
1124. SLU
SAL

11:00 AM 78.8 °F - 75.2 °F 89% 29.89 in 6.2 mi ENE 21.9 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
Shouldn't be any issue with Humberto until he it colder water and drier environment.

SHIP at 6z for Humberto
1126. SLU
Quoting 1118. GatorWX:


No way the pressure is <1005mb, which that would suggest. That's quite removed from the center. I wouldn't be as surprised to see winds in some of the outer bands 40-50, but in gusts most likely.


The cloud pattern suggests a cyclone stronger than 40mph.
1127. GatorWX
1123
1128. GatorWX
Is there a good rapid scan floater for it?
1130. SLU
1131. vis0
11-12 days (ani created yesterday. Lets keep on eye on ANYTHING that survives till that period of ~2 weeks that begins Sept ~19-21. Its not simply a "season" change its a change as to the angle of certain energies that bathe this solar system from space. Try these http://guardianlv.com/2013/09/shifting-interstell ar-wind-shows-larger-implications/
(SOURCE1 SOURCE2 SOURCE3) reads as nutty as mt theories but explained very well. The articles sources are 3 at the end of the article (also theories as to a science i call Galacsics on my blog, but when you read my pgs. think of it as a badly written sci-fi..)
I see Humberto is still on track to become a hurricane. Lets see if it lasts more than 12 hours.

1134. GatorWX
I have this, but not a floater.
Quoting 1128. GatorWX:
Is there a good rapid scan floater for it?
There is one for E. Atlantic that Levi got on his site, but something went wrong with that loop just earlier this week so that loop is gone. What a wrong week...
1136. GatorWX
Quoting 1135. Bluestorm5:
There is one for E. Atlantic that Levi got on his site, but something went wrong with that loop just earlier this week so that loop is gone. What a wrong week...


haha, yes, perfect timing.
1137. GatorWX
Click for loop. Very nice satellite of Africa if you don't have it.

Still T2.5 from the SAB.
1140. ncstorm
Good Morning..

1141. SLU
09/1200 UTC 13.6N 23.6W T2.5/2.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
Long Range models insist an active Caribbean and Gulf over the next 2 weeks plus. Bad situation to be in if you live in FL as it is seeming likely that we may have a powerful system coming at FL from the SW.

The reason for this is this big massive high that is creating all of this record heat across the Midwest is forecast to slide East toward New England & SE Canada creating lower pressures across the Gulf & Caribbean.

Add in the MJO which is the strongest since June and watch the Caribbean go BOOM!

Tropics aren't looking dull anymore I see!

1145. MahFL
Quoting 1142. StormTrackerScott:
Long Range models insist an active Caribbean and Gulf over the next 2 weeks plus...


Always 384 hours out lol.
1146. MahFL
Quoting 1144. StormTrackerScott:
Tropics aren't looking dull anymore I see!



Looks pretty dull to me.
I WANT TO SEE an humberto near my area, beautiful TS!
Quoting 1145. MahFL:


Always 384 hours out lol.


Doesn't matter what you think it's all about the pattern as a massive Ridge across New England & SE Canada is a classic set up tropical development in the Caribbean.
1149. GatorWX
Quoting 1144. StormTrackerScott:
Tropics aren't looking dull anymore I see!



Thinking it's going to time to strap on some riding boots soon. It only seems logical something will take advantage of all that heat, especially in the Western Caribbean. Gulf is warm, but with all the rain and cloud cover early on, it's not overly anomalous. The wcarib however, different story. I would not be surprised at all to see a storm threaten the West Coast of Florida or the Northern Gulf Coast. Seems to me to be just a matter of time. Just needs a seed.
MOISTURE DEEPENS THU AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 42W (FORMER
INVEST 98L) APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC ALTHOUGH TC DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT
.
ANYWAY...SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ACTIVE WX LATE IN THE WEEK.

TIRED WITH THAT, REALLY!!!!
Quoting 1149. GatorWX:


Thinking it's going to time to strap on some riding boots soon. It only seems logical something will take advantage of all that heat, especially in the Western Caribbean. Gulf is warm, but with all the rain and cloud cover early on, it's not overly anomalous. The wcarib however, different story. I would not be surprised at all to see a storm threaten the West Coast of Florida or the Northern Gulf Coast. Seems to me to be just a matter of time. Just needs a seed.


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.
Good Morning!
7:09 am (11:09 GMT)

You know what they say,
"Pink sky at morning...
Sailors think the hurricane season is boring."

Or words to that effect.


Ah, my little son with my little sun...


...sings a song!

Woohoo! Got a wet n wild four hundredths of an inch of rain last night. We be jammin'...



Have a wonderful, wonderful All - catch ya on the flip...
I'm sure the downcasters will be searching for strings on how this will end up being slow when that obivously isn't going to be the case now.
1155. Patrap
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Add in the MJO which is the strongest since June and watch the Caribbean go BOOM!



The MJO was strong in the EPAC end of August but skipped the ATL. What makes you think it won't happen next time round?

There is a pulse of the MJO in the ATL right now.

1157. GatorWX
Quoting 1152. StormTrackerScott:


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.


I noted earlier, 99 in Minneapolis today. 90 in Boston on Wednesday.

1158. GatorWX
Quoting 1156. AussieStorm:


The MJO was strong in the EPAC end of August but skipped the ATL. What makes you think it won't happen next time round?

There is a pulse of the MJO in the ATL right now.



The Gulf and Western Caribbean have been fairly moist all season. It doesn't seem that'd be completely necessary here imo.
What's the best for Humberto.
1160. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Humberto..

Good morning from sunny Southern Illinois! A lovely morning here hands down. :) Going to be a spectacular day here. I hope everyone had a great weekend!

Oh, good morning DEXTER!!!! :)

Natalie

Quoting 1152. StormTrackerScott:


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.

Looking like a 2010 steering pattern both in the Caribbean and the Central Atlantic so that's great news!!
Quoting 1162. SouthernIllinois:

Looking like a 2010 steering pattern both in the Caribbean and the Central Atlantic so that's great news!!


Not if you live in the Caribbean or central America, 2010 was devastating to them.
Quoting 1163. CybrTeddy:


Not if you live in the Caribbean or central America, 2010 was devastating to them.

I am not speaking for them. I lived in Costa Rica for 4 years as a little girl. I still know and love my auntie there. I know many people along the Gulf Coast and coastal South Carolina.



Interesting how the high tries to build back in.
1166. SLU
SAL

12:00 PM 82.4 °F 90.9 °F 77.0 °F 84% 29.89 in 6.2 mi ENE 24.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
Quoting 1159. HurricaneAndre:
What's the best for Humberto.
where is hummerto going??
Thanks Gator,

That is the best animation of Africa, I have seen.
Quoting 1167. hurricanes2018:
where is hummerto going??


Humberto its starting to move wnw now
1172. GatorWX
Quoting 1168. biff4ugo:
Thanks Gator,

That is the best animation of Africa, I have seen.


Pat posted it awhile back. It's the best I know of and updated hourly.
1173. GatorWX
Quoting 1169. CaneHunter031472:




Haven't seen that graphic. lol
Quoting 1173. GatorWX:


Haven't seen that graphic. lol


I added my special touch to it. Pretty much resembles the truth. I hope.
San Francisco Area Wildfire: Dozens of Homes Evacuated
CLAYTON, Calif. — A wildfire burning in a San Francisco Bay Area wilderness park led to the evacuation of several dozen homes.

The blaze broke out amid temperatures near triple digits in early afternoon on the edge of Mt. Diablo State Park in Contra Costa County about 15 miles northeast of San Francisco, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said in a statement.

By nightfall it had surged to 800 acres, state fire officials said, spewing a plume of smoke visible for miles around and leading to the evacuation Sunday of 50 to 75 homes in Clayton, a town of about 11,000 people alongside the park.

"I could just see it moving toward us," resident Ann Hyde, who lives about 2 ½ miles from the spot where the fire started, told the San Francisco Chronicle. "The embers are all over the place and they make me nervous.... We've never had anything this big before."

Though not far from more densely populated parts of the Bay Area, the threatened homes were on sparsely populated properties dotted with animal pens and shooting ranges.

Karen Cooper, who works at a kennel in the area, said she had safely evacuated 20 dogs, but two of her horses, named Butter and Pineapple, were missing.

"It's been intense," Cooper told the Contra Costa Times.

An evacuation center was established at Clayton Community Library.

About 250 firefighters from several surrounding agencies were struggling with tough, steep terrain. With help from four planes and three helicopters they had the blaze 10 percent contained.
1176. Doss2k
While it appears Humberto is headed out to sea, it is at least nice to see something out there that looks like an organized storm... unlike the last few.
1177. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.


Oh no i hope not Scottie!! I dont like trouble.
1178. hydrus
Quoting 1177. StormWx:


Oh no i hope not Scottie!! I dont like trouble.

I don't think so. Don't think the CONUS will see trouble. Not this year. The steering pattern isn't favorable.
1180. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Looking like a 2010 steering pattern both in the Caribbean and the Central Atlantic so that's great news!!


Maybe for the US of A :o) but those people in the islands may not fare so well mon.
Lot of other waves lined up over Africa.
1182. IKE

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


lol
1184. GatorWX
Quoting 1179. SouthernIllinois:

I don't think so. Don't think the CONUS will see trouble. Not this year. The steering pattern isn't favorable.


...at this moment. We're going to likely see troughing on the east coast replaced by ridging and repeating itself every three to five days for at least the short term. Right now there is protection, but that shouldn't be a sign things are going to hang around for long. What's your forecast for the week? Warm and then cooler?
Quoting 1180. StormWx:


Maybe for the US of A :o) but those people in the islands may not fare so well mon.

Yep. Was referring to the CONUS. Oh and Costa Rica too. :)
Quoting 1184. GatorWX:


...at this moment. We're going to likely see troughing on the east coast replaced by ridging and repeating itself every three to five days for at least the short term. Right now there is protection, but that shouldn't be a sign things are going to hang around for long. What's your forecast for the week? Warm and then cooler?

Sunny skies and drinks flowing. That's my forecast. :)
1187. ncstorm
havent been on much but I see 98L was deactivated..but the 00z HWRF still hasnt given up on it..





and a lot of moisture in the GOM/BOC
Quoting 1187. ncstorm:
havent been on much but I see 98L was deactivated..but the 00z HWRF still hasnt given up on it..





and a lot of moisture in the GOM/BOC
looks like something behind Humberto.
1189. GatorWX
Quoting 1186. SouthernIllinois:

Sunny skies and drinks flowing. That's my forecast. :)


at 10 am? or are you central time? Drinks a plenty down south. I'm on vacation. Only a month to go though :(
Just woke up and see we have Tropical Storm Humberto.



Season totals so far. 8/0/0
1191. hydrus
Quoting 1189. GatorWX:


at 10 am? or are you central time? Drinks a plenty down south. I'm on vacation. Only a month to go though :(

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha
Quoting 1191. hydrus:
i say 50 mph at the next advisory.
ERAU Daytona Beach, Daytona Beach
Elevation
26 ft
Station Select
Now
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Temperature
83.7 °F
Feels Like 91 °F
Wind(mph)
7.0

Pulled the blinds and the SUN is shinning like a BEAST.
1195. hydrus
1196. GatorWX
Quoting 1192. SouthernIllinois:

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha


Mamma says not ta play wit gators!
1197. hydrus
Quoting 1187. ncstorm:
havent been on much but I see 98L was deactivated..but the 00z HWRF still hasnt given up on it..





and a lot of moisture in the GOM/BOC
Things will get very interesting for the U.S. in the next two weeks....Maybe into October.
Going to be close, if you take the average mean of the highest intensity and the lowest intensity could very well become a minimal Cat. 1 Hurricane before moving into cooler waters.

1199. GatorWX
Quoting 1192. SouthernIllinois:

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha


95ish there today? Sounds like a good frozen drink day :)
Quoting 1169. CaneHunter031472:


Lol.I like the new symbols for this boring things to track.
Quoting 1196. GatorWX:


Mamma says not ta play wit gators!

haha! My gator LUVS when I play with him, just not to wrestle with him. That's where the line gets drawn. :)
Quoting 1192. SouthernIllinois:

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha
Cool pool party, hope I'm invited. :D
Quoting 1199. GatorWX:


95ish there today? Sounds like a good frozen drink day :)

OMG TOTALLY Josh!! CANNOT wait. *Jumps up and Down** ;)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1205. GatorWX
I ain't holding my breathe GT. I want to see that record broke! I hate models anyway, especially intensity ones and especially this year.
Quoting 1188. HurricaneAndre:
looks like something behind Humberto.
CV Islands?
Quoting 1202. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cool pool party, hope I'm invited. :D

Caleb....it's all girls so yes....we can use some men. You sir can show up and you'll leave very happy. Plenty of drinks and it's a killer pool for a hot sunny day!!
Quoting 1167. hurricanes2018:
where is hummerto going??
Azores with the fish trackers.
1209. ohzone
After reading this Time magazine piece on lack of hurricanes this year http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurric ane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?h pt=hp_t2
it's now clear: global warming both increases the number of hurricanes and decreases the number of hurricanes. The experts all agree to disagree and the moral of this story is NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON. About the only thing you met guys can do with some degree of certainty is identify pending activity, calculate, with a reasonable amount of accurancy wave/storm component activity and exisiting and pending anomolies in a region, and identify upcoming events if the event is in some stage of development. Even a lot of that scientific activity is guesswork. Just because there are clouds overhead does not mean it will rain: that's the gist of this business.
1210. hydrus
Quoting 1193. HurricaneAndre:
i say 50 mph at the next advisory.
Sounds good.
Quoting 1209. ohzone:
After reading this Time magazine piece on lack of hurricanes this year http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurric ane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?h pt=hp_t2
it's now clear: global warming both increases the number of hurricanes and decreases the number of hurricanes. The experts all agree to disagree and the moral of this story is NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON. About the only thing you met guys can do with some degree of certainty is identify pending activity, calculate, with a reasonable amount of accurancy wave/storm component activity and exisiting and pending anomolies in a region, and identify upcoming events if the event is in some stage of development. Even a lot of that scientific activity is guesswork. Just because there are clouds overhead does not mean it will rain: that's the gist of this business.
You're confusing scientific uncertainty with lack of knowledge. That's a common mistake, but a pretty large one. If the weather forecast calls for a high of 90 and it only reaches 85, that doesn't mean "NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON". Rather, it simply means the science of weather forecasting, while constantly improving and far more advanced than it was even a few decades ago, still isn't perfect. It may never be; it's possible there are simply too many variables and too much chaos in the system to ever model accurately and to the high degree of precision some would like. But they're trying; they're always trying. And that's a heckuva long way from "NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON". ;-)
Quoting 1143. StormTrackerScott:
Add in the MJO which is the strongest since June and watch the Caribbean go BOOM!



or go POOF