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Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L Still Disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2013

A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Tuesday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has been low since Monday, and is spread out, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the the 12Z Tuesday balloon sounding from Guadeloupe near the center of 97L showed moist air through the entire depth of the atmosphere.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be low through Friday, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 29°C. The disturbance has not been able to generate enough thunderstorms to moisten the surrounding atmosphere much, and dry air may continue to slow down development over the next few days. The models take 97L to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Puerto Rico or Hispaniola on Wednesday night. A track over the high mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Friday, after the storm has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning's 00Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble--which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks--foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Central Bahamas on Saturday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and 2-day odds at 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Wednesday afternoon. The flight scheduled for today will likely be cancelled. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, a 5-year field project utilizing two remotely crewed Global Hawk aircraft to overfly tropical storms and hurricanes, will have one of their aircraft investigate 97L today, and again on Wednesday. You can follow the progress of the aircraft using NASA's live-plane tracker map (Global Hawk AV6 is tail number NASA872, and Global Hawk AV1 is tail number NASA871.)

98L off the coast of Africa and a Yucatan Peninsula tropical wave
A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday (Invest 98L) is expected to track northwest over the Cape Verde Islands. This course will take 98L into a region of ocean where historically, very few tropical cyclones have made the long journey across the Atlantic to affect North America. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

A tropical wave over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula has a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms associated with it that is bringing heavy rains. This activity will push over the extreme Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. The wave will have two days over water to develop before moving ashore on the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 30%, and 2-day odds at 20%.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Kyon5
Moving WNW-NW if one looks at this radar: Link


Quoting 497. CaribBoy:


Seriously Wunderkidcayman, 15N 62W seems the right location. Earlier though, the southern center looked quite nice, but now it looks like it has just vanished.


You're right it has vanished - underneath convection, that is. It's definitely there. 14.6N, 63.4W seems a good place to put it.

Edit: MAybe more at 62.9W. Seems to have jumped under the convection to its East. Still, it's alive and well.
Hurricane-free August disappoints commodities bulls
Financial Times, September 3, 2013 6:34 pm
By Emiko Terazono in London

Lol, WU-bloggers aren't the only ones with some frustration.

its looking like lots of storms going out to sea this year the east coast will be safe this year.
One thing fer sure, no model's no'r Bloggers called for 97L to go into Neutral for 48 hours..


HArumphhh'
Quoting 502. RascalNag:


You're right it has vanished - underneath convection, that is. It's definitely there. 14.6N, 63.4W seems a good place to put it.


Debating on stupidities is a waste of time XD
Quoting 481. CaribBoy:
Looking South


Looking North



I still " feel your pain" CaribBoy
Moved it

AL, 97, 2013090318, , BEST, 0, 150N, 630W, 30, 1007, LO
NCEP Caribbean Desk just updated their discussion. Here is the section on the projected rain for PR and Hispanola with the full link below. Big time flooding on the horizon for those folks:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W AND THE ONE ALONG 62W ARE TO GRADUALLY PHASE AS THE LATTER MIGRATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NHC IS MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLES TO HISPANIOLA.
EARLY IN THE CYCLE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FRENCH-LEEWARD TO VIRGIN ISLES WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. AS IT ENTERS PUERTO RICO-EASTERN HISPANIOLA THIS WILL INCREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 150-200MM. ACROSS HAITI IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM BY 72-84 HRS. THROUGH 96 HRS MAXIMA IS TO INCREASE TO 30-60MM.


Link
Quoting 507. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I still " feel your pain" CaribBoy


I'm good don't worry :)
Interesting mlc near Cancun. Hmmm
Hurricane free August disappoints commodities bulls




that just breaks my heart that it didn't cost me an arm and a leg to gas my car because a hurricane shut down production...
9 hrs ago, Microwave Look, will compare to todays evening pass,if we get one.

IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])


Quoting 502. RascalNag:


You're right it has vanished - underneath convection, that is. It's definitely there. 14.6N, 63.4W seems a good place to put it.

Yes but maybe it would get a little tug NE due to the increased convection as its just trying to line up with the convection but should continue W bound shortly
Note the storms marching south with the front, to stall along the coast and wash out next couple of days.

Then the GOM is open to Missouri via the River.



WOAH..

216 Hours
Quoting 483. ricderr:


Talk about hitting the brakes and a northeast turn......and all pretty tightly clustered....WOW
15N 63W I'm very OK with that.
Quoting 508. nrtiwlnvragn:
Moved it

AL, 97, 2013090318, , BEST, 0, 150N, 630W, 30, 1007, LO


Better position
Quoting 501. Kyon5:
Moving WNW-NW if one looks at this radar: Link




Nah that's just the band on the E side of the COC spreading out a bit giving that appearance
522. JRRP
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Moved it

AL, 97, 2013090318, , BEST, 0, 150N, 630W, 30, 1007, LO

Quoting 494. Patrap:
Hmmm, the Haus is betting on N by NW then Woosh'


BAM shallow is the outlier....

Hmm, I wunder...?

Dooodle Looo,

wah, wah, wahhhhhhhhh








can you plzs kill it with the off topic photos this is not a comedie blog its a weather blog
I love to be sandwiched between disturbances even though the weather looks great outside. But regarding 97L I can see some interesting things happening in the distance... and gradually approaching.
Quoting 483. ricderr:
what does Bams see that the other models dont?..someone said to watch Bams when a system is weak and undeveloped..a northward turn would mean its stronger no?...maybe bams knows it will stay weak and move more westward..we'll see in the days to come..
526. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:
15N 63W I'm very OK with that.

now looks better
527. IKE
12Z ECMWF....nothing significant affecting the lower 48. Also, weaker on the eastern ATL storm. Why am I not surprised?
meanwhile east coast of florida..storms heading your way......
529. IKE
Quoting JRRP:

It's already wrong. Throw those tracks out. They can't even track a system correctly for 12-18 hours.
530. Relix
Quoting 522. JRRP:



Eastern RD it is.
Anyway gets I going one break I am badly hungry so I'll be back later
If I am reading the current link Dr. M provided for the Global Hawk (below), the platform has been/is currently flying (green plane image) right over 97L.

Link

Wondering if they are using the plane to adjust the coordinates.....Super Cool if that is indeed the case.
Quoting 526. JRRP:

now looks better


Yup and it's in the graveyard lol
534. tj175
Quoting 443. hurricanes2018:
good news that invest 97L will go out to sea its not going to hit the east coast at all.




Ok ok we get the point you repost the same garbage on every post no matter what the models say now just please go away. The models have been shifting northward with every update regarding 97l, but any track after 3 days should be taken with caution.
Quoting 531. wunderkidcayman:
Anyway gets I going one break I am badly hungry so I'll be back later


Eat well.
Quoting 508. nrtiwlnvragn:
Moved it

AL, 97, 2013090318, , BEST, 0, 150N, 630W, 30, 1007, LO



with all these center fixes we are posting....seems most are with in 50 miles of each other....best not to quibble? esp when we STILL do not have an established LLC?
538. BVI
Quoting 524. CaribBoy:
I love to be sandwiched between disturbances even though the weather looks great outside. But regarding 97L I can see some interesting things happening in the distance... andgradually approaching.



Which island you on? In the Virgin Islands here
Seems like everyone is focusing on 97L and not the other aoi's. It has to be That one. Wow I'm out!!
Talk about hitting the brakes and a northeast turn......and all pretty tightly clustered....WOW



true...but i trust no model until we actually have a storm....we watch lows form here...and then reform there.....one day it's strong and tracks say one way...the next day they're another....i believe it was 92l that everyone was gambling on texas...and although it disipated......it's influence was actually felt in texas....


reminds me of a song by billy joel....weather adapted of course.....

models may be right...or they may be crazy...but it just might be the lunatic model the blogs are looking for... you may be wrong for all i know you may be right
Quoting 523. Tazmanian:



can you plzs kill it with the off topic photos this is not a comedie blog its a weather blog


plttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt ttt,

wah wah wah..................
Quoting 538. BVI:



Which island you on? In the Virgin Islands here


St Barths... not too far :)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Not surprised at all I'm taking this straight to the trash

I'm sure the NHC will be sad to hear about that. :-)Seriously, as the low has become a bit better consolidated, almost every numerical and dynamical model wants to take 97L north. go over the PR and Virgins, brush the lower Bahamas, and then go out to sea. As you know, I'm not a great believer in models but, when more and more start to pile up on a path, that pile is likely to be close to be right. You can be our Don Quixote, tilting as western wind mills, but you're, going to be wrong.
Quoting 532. weathermanwannabe:
If I am reading the current link Dr. M provided for the Global Hawk (below), the platform has been/is currently flying (green plane image) right over 97L.

Link

Wondering if they are using the plane to adjust the coordinates.....Super Cool if that is indeed the case.

No not at 50'000 ft
Good afternoon, Im full after eating so much fish and drinking Mexican beer.
Quoting 536. HurricaneHunterJoe:



with all these center fixes we are posting....seems most are with in 50 miles of each other....best not to quibble? esp when we STILL do not have an established LLC?


That would be my take, no big difference in the scheme of things at this point, just updated to the latest NHC.
Published on May 15, 2013

NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission uses NASA's Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) to study tropical storms and hurricanes. This nine-minute video describes the mission, reveals details about the Global Hawk aircraft, and offers a glimpse inside the command centers of both the ground-based pilots and the scientists who analyze satellite images to assist in flight navigation. The video concludes with information about getting students involved directly from the classroom through computer monitoring of the Global Hawk's flight patterns and participating in live chats with the ground-based pilots.

Educational resources about the HS3 mission can be found at the NASA Wavelength Digital Library nasawavelength.org/resource/nw-000-000-0�3-539/

For more information about HS3 and the NASA Airborne Science Program visit airbornescience.nasa.gov, and nasa.gov/hs3




Just MY opinion, this is what I see happening, taking a shot at the east coast of Fl..
EDIT: I was looking at this map and it updated While I was looking at it showing the low heading ne where before it was showing nnw direction.
Quoting 523. Tazmanian:



can you plzs kill it with the off topic photos this is not a comedie blog its a weather blog


C'mon Taz......geeeshhhhhhh
Still not convinced 97 will be scooped up by the trough. Seems the trough might be to far ahead of it and leave it behind, the high might have a chance to build back in. We shall see.

Closer to home, there seems to be a pretty good hint of a swirl on the visible sat. pic. right over the Yucatan. I see an ULL to the left of it so I doubt it would go into Mexico. Anyway, it has a lot of juice to work with if it got its act together.
Quoting 544. wunderkidcayman:

No not at 50'000 ft


How do you know the radar is not effective at that altitude?
Quoting 474. wunderkidcayman:
Wow BEST track got it wrong again meaning model runs for 18Z no good



I ran the single track error on today's 18z model runs. Just about all are initialized 50nm in error or more, late track models & all. So good call. One exception was the HWRF which was 6nm off.

Also interesting on that run was the intensity models. Suddenly many look like they didn't call for strong enough.
looks like the Euro is trying to take 97L into Florida..no NE out to sea-last frame

Quoting 543. sar2401:

I'm sure the NHC will be sad to hear about that. :-)Seriously, as the low has become a bit better consolidated, almost every numerical and dynamical model wants to take 97L north. go over the PR and Virgins, brush the lower Bahamas, and then go out to sea. As you know, I'm not a great believer in models but, when more and more start to pile up on a path, that pile is likely to be close to be right. You can be our Don Quixote, tilting as western wind mills, but you're, going to be wrong.


No bottom line it's not at 15N 63W maybe further S where NHC BEST track Data put it which is what the models are based on
Hi nrt,any data from Global Hawk?
setting up to be a dangerous situation..if the Euro is not seeing a strong enough trough to take 97L out to sea, there is a potential big'um right behind it..


I watched a weeks marathon of Perry Mason and you are all still watching 97L. :)

I have to go. Murder she wrote marathon is starting.

Everybody have fun.

P.S. The one thing I know is this is not going west!!!!
559. IKE

Quoting ncstorm:
looks like the Euro is trying to take 97L into Florida..no NE out to sea-last frame

Looks like a trough of low pressure stretching SW toward the Yucatan.
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Aircraft Reconnaissance

Plan of the Day ( Today / Tomorrow ) - How to Read


Dropsonde data from NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission does not currently appear in our recon system. However, our experimental manual decoder in our recon system in development, which appears here, can manually decode some of these sondes which are archived here with all other sondes from 2013. (Some data may be added manually here after a mission ends.)

To track GlobalHawk unmanned aircraft in real time, please use NASA's viewer here.
Could be another wet evening and week with this front hanging out!

Quoting 557. ncstorm:
setting up to be a dangerous situation..if the Euro is not seeing a strong enough trough to take 97L out to sea, there is a potential big'um right behind it..
Maybe a real Cape Verde TC to track!?!?
.
Quoting 554. wunderkidcayman:


No bottom line it's not at 15N 63W maybe further S where NHC BEST track Data put it which is what the models are based on


Your meal is waiting Wunderkid :-) Cold meals are not as good.
Quoting 556. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi nrt,any data from Global Hawk?


I don't know of any website that has the data. This Global Hawk does not have dropsondes.





HIRAD is a multi-frequency, hurricane imaging, interferometric single-pol passive C-band radiometer, operating from 4 GHz to 7 GHz, with both cross-track and along-track resolution that measures strong ocean surface winds through heavy rain from an aircraft or space-based platform.


HIWRAP (High-Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler) is a dual-frequency radar (Ka- and Ku-band), dual-beam (300 and 400 incidence angle), conical scan, solid-state transmitter-based system, designed for operation on the high-altitude (20 km) Global Hawk UAV.


The Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE) detects gamma-rays and relativistic electrons associated with lightning and thunderstorm charging. The primary scientific target is terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs), brief (< 1 millisecond), extremely bright bursts of high energy radiation that have mostly been detected from satellites in low Earth orbit.


The High Altitude Monolithic Microwave integrated Circuit (MMIC) Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) is a microwave atmospheric sounder developed by JPL under the NASA Instrument Incubator Program. Operating with 25 spectral channels in 3 bands (50-60 Ghz, 118 Ghz, 183 Ghz), it provides measurements that can be used to infer the 3-D distribution of temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid water in the atmosphere, even in the presence of clouds.


Or, it has a singer and a hamster on board :)
Quoting 558. Grothar:


I watched a weeks marathon of Perry Mason and you are all still watching 97L. :)

I have to go. Murder she wrote marathon is starting.

Everybody have fun.

P.S. The one thing I know is this is not going west!!!!


Good afternoon most wisest of wise......I am learning from you. I watched the entire Season 8 of " 24 " yesterday........my eyes hurt so BADDDDDDDD!...LOL
Quoting 566. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good afternoon most wisest of wise......I am learning from you. I watched the entire Season 8 of " 24 " yesterday........my eyes hurt so BADDDDDDDD!...LOL


One of the greatest shows.
The NHC did not mention dry air in relation to 97L anymore in the latest TWO. Again, dry air was never the problem.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.
I am going to buck the trend and go with the Bams model..97 IS shallow and that model is very good with shallow systems..if it makes it under cuba instead of turning north Bams wins..
Surprised no one is posting satellite imagery of 97L. :P

I think selling hurricane insurance is the best job one can have right now...especially with the residuals.
You'd never have to pay a claim.
Looks like mid-level swirl over tip of Yucatan.
Quoting 558. Grothar:


I watched a weeks marathon of Perry Mason and you are all still watching 97L. :)

I have to go. Murder she wrote marathon is starting.

Everybody have fun.

P.S. The one thing I know is this is not going west!!!!
So what is going to bring it north Groth??? Have you tried Golden Girls??
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FLZ038-031945-
FLAGLER-
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
FLAGLER COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER BUNNELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ESPANOLA...BUNNELL AND
FLAGLER BEACH THROUGH 345 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2942 8113 2941 8115 2927 8114 2926 8116
2926 8123 2940 8140 2955 8129 2948 8111
2944 8110 2942 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 299DEG 14KT 2944 8126

$$

TRABERT
Quoting 572. nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like mid-level swirl over tip of Yucatan.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
576. JRRP
over Dom.Rep now
98L went poof this like 94L 96L and now 98L
It would appear as though the FIM and GFS would want to transfer the energy that is associated with 97L into the wave East of the Lesser Antilles.



Run the loop and tell me what you guys think. Link
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
A STRONGER/SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED.


WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE IDEA IS FOR SOMETHING WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE WEAK STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE...TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NAM APPEARS
TOO DEVELOPED WHILE THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LITTLE TO
NO DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED DUE TO POOR RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND DUE TO THE POORLY RESOLVED NATURE OF THE ONGOING
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR SOMETHING WEAK AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD...AGAINST THE MORE DEVELOPED NAM GIVEN A LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION.

THE NHC HAS GIVEN THIS DISTURBANCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALWAYS REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
FOR THE LATEST ON THIS SYSTEM.
Don't 97L go thru DMIN this evening? If I have that right. I know on some other waves DMIN hurt them. I may have this all wrong, just asking.

sheri
Quoting 553. ncstorm:
looks like the Euro is trying to take 97L into Florida..no NE out to sea-last frame

big hurricane to
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-040815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.130904T1400Z-130906T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
245 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* A SLOW MOVING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES AND WILL BE CARRYING AREAS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW OF MOIST AIR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

* SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY...AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
URBAN AREAS AND MANY STREAMS IN THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS MAY ALSO
FLOOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FIRST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LATER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS EXPECTED
BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING RISK OF MUDSLIDES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE RAINS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SNELL
New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 9/3/2013 2:59 PM to 4:00 PM EDT for Horry County. More information
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2013



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 23.4N 75.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 08.09.2013 23.4N 75.3W WEAK

12UTC 08.09.2013 24.2N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2013 25.5N 75.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2013 26.5N 74.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 031648


Buoy north of 97L
Quoting 580. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would appear as though the FIM and GFS would want to transfer the energy that is associated with 97L into the wave East of the Lesser Antilles.



Run the loop and tell me what you guys think. Link


It's just what I shyly tried to utter some hours earlier with the back up of my favourite TPW, lol:


AF304 made it to St. Croix


000
URNT10 KNHC 031908
97779 19084 30184 66100 76300 99005 70781 /5760
RMK AF304 WXWXA 130903155320304 OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Lat/Lon bolded
Quoting 580. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would appear as though the FIM and GFS would want to transfer the energy that is associated with 97L into the wave East of the Lesser Antilles.



Run the loop and tell me what you guys think. Link
They are not the only one either...
595. Kyon5

Quoting 593. nrtiwlnvragn:
AF304 made it to St. Croix


000
URNT10 KNHC 031908
97779 19084 30184 66100 76300 99005 70781 /5760
RMK AF304 WXWXA 130903155320304 OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Lat/Lon bolded
Is it going to investigate this system this evening?
Quoting 569. LargoFl:
I am going to buck the trend and go with the Bams model..97 IS shallow and that model is very good with shallow systems..if it makes it under cuba instead of turning north Bams wins..


A little hard to buck the trend with such a tight model cluster otherwise but you never know; I suspect that the current cluster is taking into account the timing of the trof sweeping down and assumes that it will pick up 97L.

However, if the trof flattens out or the wave stays weak, it could miss the anticipated turn and slip under Hispanola.......Almost a double edged sword; if a TD does not form before reaching Hispanola or Cuba, the land interaction will prevent it from further organization at that time. The next 24-36 hours should give us a better idea of where we stand.
Quoting 568. Levi32:
The NHC did not mention dry air in relation to 97L anymore in the latest TWO. Again, dry air was never the problem.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.
I believe they mentioned dry air as being a problem on some past twos in the last 48 to 72 hours. They said it was in the mid-level. Looks like that issue has been resolved.
Quoting 592. barbamz:


It's just what I shyly tried to utter some hour earlier with the back up of my favourite TPW, lol:





97L's roll is back
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM VENEZUELA
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO BEGINNING IN
THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY AND QUICKLY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE ISLAND BY MID-AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTHEAST...AREAS OF
CONVECTION WERE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN APEX OF THE TROUGH NOW
JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT CURRENT RATE OF
MOVEMENT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WOULD REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THEY
DIFFER IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY TO EXPECT AFTER PASSAGE. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
UPSTREAM OF OR OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABOUT A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DOING SO IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO
THE HURRICANE CENTER. IN EITHER CASE...IT WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO COME IN BANDS OR AREAS THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT EXPECT THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO CARRY
CONTINUOUS RAINS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES 100 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING AT 10 AM AST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF IS WETTER AT LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO BECAUSE THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
SO MUCH MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ALSO THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TOO LOW THIS MORNING BY ABOUT ONE QUARTER
INCH. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS CHANGED FROM LESS MOISTURE
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THAT NOT ONLY PULLS MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALSO CAUSES WINDS AT
700 MB TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST OF SOUTH. THIS OUTCOME IS LESS
CERTAIN...BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER.
Quoting 595. Kyon5:

Is it going to investigate this system this evening?


Not scheduled, invest mission is scheduled for tomorrow.
602. JRRP
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AF304 made it to St. Croix


000
URNT10 KNHC 031908
97779 19084 30184 66100 76300 99005 70781 /5760
RMK AF304 WXWXA 130903155320304 OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Lat/Lon bolded

well....
Quoting 591. HuracandelCaribe:
Buoy north of 97L


Surface observations continue to indicate things trying to come to together. Whether or not it will completely is anyone's guess.
Experimental Penn State WRF EnKF model:

Quoting WxGeekVA:
If it keep this track COC will cross over the over SW Tip o Puerto Rico then to the Mona Canal and into the "flat" terrain of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, and towards southern Bahamas....
According to the latest maps for 97L, the 850mmb and 700mb vorticity are below 15N. The 500m vorticity looks weak. 97L is developing slowly.
Quoting 599. GeorgiaStormz:



97L's roll is back


This sentence is too short for me (as a German) to figure out what you're meaning, lol. Several translations possible.
3. REMARKS: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. NASA 871 TAKE-OFF: 03/1100Z
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1100Z, 03 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1500Z, 03 SEP; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
F. EP: 0600Z, 4 SEPT; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 04 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF TD
CIRCULATION IN BOX BOUNDED BY 25.0N 68.0W
17.0N 68.0W, 14.0N 55.0W, 19.0N 52.0W
FOLLOWED BY BUTTERFLY WITHIN REGION OF
CONVECTION ~ 200 NM RADIUS FROM 18.0N 67.5W
4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- BACK TO BACK GH MISSIONS:
A. NA871 LANDING, 1100 Z, 04 SEP
B. NA872 TAKE OFF 1500Z, 04 SEP

Follow the NASA-871 Global Hawk Mission here


Here it comes to view.
Has there been any infromation, other than position, from the Global Hawk?
POD for Tomorrow

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.


4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon

Dropsonde data from NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission does not currently appear in our recon system. However, our experimental manual decoder in our recon system in development, which appears here, can manually decode some of these sondes which are archived here with all other sondes from 2013. (Some data may be added manually here after a mission ends.)

To track GlobalHawk unmanned aircraft in real time, please use NASA's viewer here.
Here is the closet bouy to the action around 97L:

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.332N 63.24W
Date: Tue, 3 Sep 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: E (80°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (71°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

I would watch that mlc in the ne Yucatan for the next few hours as it could get going with the typical convection that develops in the Yucatan. It's interesting for sure.
GH has no sonde system aboard, as other data is collected via radar.

I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
.
Quoting Kyon5:

Is it going to investigate this system this evening?
They should, the COC will be about 30 t0 40 miles SE of St. Croix, heading to the SW of Puerto Rico and the Mona canal. ,not to far, from were the plane had landed.
Wind speed probability of 50 knots take note of the track as well.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 06 2013 - 12Z TUE SEP 10 2013


THE 00Z/03 EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE--BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN--WERE OUT OF TOLERANCE ENOUGH WITH THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE
MANUAL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST. THE CRITICAL DIVERGENCE IS WITH
REGARD TO THE SECOND BATCH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SLATED TO
CROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z/03 EC GUIDANCE
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE RECENT GFS RUNS,
GEFS MEANS, AND CMCE MEANS.
FURTHERMORE, THE 00Z/03 ECMWF BROKE
CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN THIS REGARD, AND THE LAST
FOUR ECENS MEANS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY UNSTABLE. SUCH INSTABILITY IN
RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECENS MEAN LIKELY SIGNALS A
DECEPTIVELY COMPLEX FLOW COMING DOWN THE PIPE,
BUT IF PERSISTENCE
COUNTS FOR ANYTHING--AS IT HAS THIS MOST RECENT SUMMER--THEN
ANOTHER COOL HIGH IS THE LIKELIEST OUTCOME FOR THE NORTHEAST DAYS
6 AND 7.

THE EAST LOOKS DRY, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON--WHILE NOT QUITE IN
ITS "DEATH THROES"--CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE ON THE WANE. EASTERLY
FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP THAT REGION SHOWERY.
The First AF RECON Teal Flight is tomorrow after today's flight crew and ferry crew rest.

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
621. TXCWC
Most major models still showing Cape Verde system by late this weekend.

EURO


GFS


GEM


FIM-9


NAEFS (GEM+GFS ensemble mean)

Big envelope for 97L.
Could 97L be another Hortense for PR?
Hmmmmmmmmmmm.........


Computer Glitch Causes False Weather Emergency Alert

August 28, 2013

An emergency weather alert was set off in all buildings at 1:42 p.m. Wednesday afternoon stating that all classes were cancelled for the rest of the day.

Three minutes later, an email was sent to all students from SRU Communication that the alert was an accident and that classes will meet as scheduled.

“It came out of our office,” stated Slippery Rock University Officer Karl Fisher. “It was not an emergency alert, but an accidental trip.”

“It was a glitch in the system,” he continued. “It sent out the alert and then locked up so there was nothing we could do until just minute ago to tell everybody that it wasn’t real.”
 
- See more at: http://www.theonlinerocket.com/news/2013/08/28/com puter-glitch-causes-false-weather-emergency-alert/ #sthash.Wr5Hfbtg.dpuf
Gonna head out for the afternoon but just noting that you can see that big ULL/Tutt cell spinning on the WV loop below centered just to the SE of Jamaica. That will cause problems for 97L as it approaches in a few days as well as help steer it towards the NW over Hispanola.

Link

My point is that 97L has a small window of opportunity over the next 48 hours to get a groove on before the encounter. Nonetheless, PR is in the bulls eye for the flooding rains at the moment.

Check back with Yall in the am to see how it does overnight................WW.

The Trough over the east coast is gonna curve out anything that comes close to the US... This season is boring and one of the least active we have ever had on record.
*Yawn* is it winter yet?
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Surprised no one is posting satellite imagery of 97L. :P

I think that this system is evolving quite nicely this afternoon as it move WNW ...
This season is boring and one of the least active we have ever had on record



yeah...a broken record...ta da da boom.....least active?.....
97L finally getting its vort together its movement into the Caribbean as allowed for it be meet up the the extra vort that extended to the northern SA coast.



Now that it has improved the area to its east is its only vort it need a little more work on. Its lacks a dominant LLC but it has tighten up significantly today and some steady organization is possible through tomorrow.


Quoting 621. TXCWC:
Most major models still showing Cape Verde system by late this weekend.

EURO


GFS


GEM


FIM-9


NAEFS (GEM+GFS ensemble mean)


More than likely will be our first hurricane, perhaps even major hurricane. Probably the most enthusiastic the ECMWF has been about development in the Atlantic in a year.
631. TXCWC
Bermuda needs to keep an eye on 97L

GFS


GEM


NAVGEM


UKMET


FIM-9


NAEFS
Quoting 607. barbamz:


This sentence is too short for me (as a German) to figure out what you're meaning, lol. Several translations possible.


on water vapor it is rolling like a wheel again...it had stopped yesterday.
the moisture to the east is moving ne so it will be affected first by the tutt coming down in a few days
StormTrackerScott good call, this cell just blew up right over us, looking outside the window from the 2nd story in my room shows the parking lots flooded.

Still seeing those outflow boundaries off to the northwest associated with dry, upper level convergent conditions.
What's this, what's this?!! I see?
Afternoon all.
Quoting 603. Drakoen:


Surface observations continue to indicate things trying to come to together. Whether or not it will completely is anyone's guess.
This I am observing. With the swing towards the NW in the track seen over the last 48, I am watching very closely indeed.

Although the inner core structure of 97L continues to improve, the lack of moisture within the mid-levels of the atmosphere will force shower and thunderstorm activity to remain scarce.

97L is heading into an area of converging winds aloft which will only help keep the convective activity meager.

The 30% chance the NHC/CPC is giving 97L for development over the next 2 days seems spot on to me.
Quoting 629. Hurricanes305:
97L finally getting its vort together its movement into the Caribbean as allowed for it be meet up the the extra vort that extended to the northern SA coast.



Now that it has improved the area to its east is its only vort it need a little more work on. Its lacks a dominant LLC but it has tighten up significantly today and some steady organization is possible through tomorrow.



Yay! it's finally moving!!!
Quoting 635. Drakoen:
Still seeing those outflow boundaries off to the northwest associated with dry, upper level convergent conditions.
Great way to read my mind. :P
Quoting 614. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the closet bouy to the action around 97L:

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.332N 63.24W
Date: Tue, 3 Sep 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: E (80°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (71°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F



Pressures are lowering and banding occuring on the southern end of the system. This could imply some organization might try to take place tonight and tomorrow starting to see some. You can see the old vort by 14N/63W being sucked into the stronger one further north around 15.2N/63.1W


Screenshot. Source.

Human hurricane hunters would have done it more tidily than this erraticly flying drone, lol.
Quoting 642. barbamz:


Human hurricane hunter would have done it more tidily than this erraticly flying drone, lol.


Well, A Air Force Captain is flying it from Virginia, sooooooooooo
It's like there's an invisible barrier protecting the CONUS....
Quoting 630. CybrTeddy:


More than likely will be our first hurricane, perhaps even major hurricane. Probably the most enthusiastic the ECMWF has been about development in the Atlantic in a year.

Whoa, calm down there. This is 2013 we're talking about.
For everyone thinking 97L is going out to sea then think again as the Euro is hell bent on sending 97L to FL as a weak system. Also the GFS ensembles are trending more and more on a bend west back toward FL. Something to watch down the road.

Quoting 646. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Whoa, calm down there. This is 2013 we're talking about.
I agree. Even though models have the system emerging within 5 days as a tropical storm...all the exact same models had 96L emerging Africa within 5 days as a tropical storm and all we got was a puff of clouds.
Quoting 643. Patrap:

Nice swirl over Cancun
Quoting 646. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Whoa, calm down there. This is 2013 we're talking about.


Like X 1000

Now your coming around
Quoting 649. MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. Even though models have the system emerging within 5 days as a tropical storm...all the exact same models had 96L emerging Africa within 5 days as a tropical storm and all we got was a puff of clouds.


The ECMWF hardly developed 96L. Makes it a strengthening tropical storm by the end of the run.
Quoting 646. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Whoa, calm down there. This is 2013 we're talking about.


He's on a 20 right now. I'm sure reality will bring him back down to a low key 6 or 7 like the rest of us.
It's pretty neat to be able to scale the NASA Global Hawk track image the same as the 97L floater visible satellite image, click back and forth between the two, and see what part of the system the aircraft is in at the moment, in real time.
656. Relix
97L is really getting that engine revving up.
6 hourly soundings from the midwest/northeast/ and southeast will be needed by thursday to help resolve the pattern which is tricky.
There is a growing risk of a significant tropical cyclone impacting the se conus by mid part of next week.
Quoting 652. CybrTeddy:


The ECMWF hardly developed 96L. Makes it a strengthening tropical storm by the end of the run.


How the models did with 98L?
guys tose out all the mode runs for 97L I see 97L going W
Well, my towel brigade is already being brought into force. Just had another line go through. Rain was falling sideways. Lots of water coming in from under the door and plants got knocked off the porch with the wind. Now it's calm again. I'm starting to think it's going to be an interesting couple of days around here.

Lindy
662. BVI
Quoting 661. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Well, my towel brigade is already being brought into force. Just had another line go through. Rain was falling sideways. Lots of water coming in from under the door and plants got knocked off the porch with the wind. Now it's calm again. I'm starting to think it's going to be an interesting couple of days around here.

Lindy


Hello, which island are you on?
I see 97L went up 10%.

Getting its act together.
665. IKE
1h
NHC rightly removes dry air argument with 97L
Bottom continues to fall

The whole picture. And, huh, really a lot of SAL (Saharan air layer) behind it, as was pointed out by Walsh earlier. (Edit: Our Caribboy will be annoyed, for sure)



Quoting 662. BVI:


Hello, which island are you on?


Hi there...over on St. Thomas in Frenchtown.

-L
Quoting 660. Tazmanian:
guys tose out all the mode runs for 97L I see 97L going W

i see same thing
Quoting 665. IKE:
1h
NHC rightly removes dry air argument with 97L


At least someone gets it lol.
The season is a bust.

Water Vapor of 97L.
Quoting 673. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The season is a bust.
Hope so GT
18z NAM puts 97L right on top of P.R.
Quoting 643. Patrap:


Spin City
Quoting 669. HuracandelCaribe:


I think it's moving due west.
Quoting 673. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The season is a bust.


It sucks, doesn't it?
Quoting 677. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Spin City


At least someone gets it lol.
Quoting 679. FunnelVortex:


It sucks, doesn't it?
Nope......Love it
Quoting 672. Levi32:


At least someone gets it lol.
So the obvious lower-level outflow boundaries aren't a result of dry air intrusion?
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. (Or 'til it's November 30th)
NAM at 54 hours - 97L is on its way north to open seas. NAM has shifted further north on this run.
Everytime I see a JB re-tweet,

I tweet JB the entry here.

; )
Quoting 672. Levi32:


At least someone gets it lol.

Levi with a pos nao forming wouldn't that try to bring this slowly west from the bahamas. I am thinking the models which are based on gfs level physics are using the ne piece of energy to break a bigger weakness then there potentially will really be?
Quoting 682. MiamiHurricanes09:
So the obvious lower-level outflow boundaries aren't a result of dry air intrusion?


I haven't seen any evidence that the actual circulation of 97L has been invaded by dry air. The outflow boundaries to the northwest I think are being caused by the accelerating trade wind flow to their west, which is pulling air down, causing convective cells to collapse. Such downdrafts can then in turn create some dry air along the northern periphery, but the point is I don't think dry air has ever really been an issue for 97L. It's been nearby, but not entrained. The inhibitor has been elongated structure and lack of the convergence necessary to sustain a CDO.
Quoting 660. Tazmanian:
guys tose out all the mode runs for 97L I see 97L going W


be careful Tas....you could be ostracized like WKC
Quoting 654. Drakoen:


He's on a 20 right now. I'm sure reality will bring him back down to a low key 6 or 7 like the rest of us.


I'm in the "hey, major hurricanes happen even in the most boring of seasons" level.
691. JLPR2
Quoting 669. HuracandelCaribe:


97L looks better, there's definitely a LLC tightening up around 15N evidenced by the motion of the low level clouds.

Though in the looks department 97L is far from winning a beauty pageant.

LOL I like teasing you all. :)
97L will pass at least 180 miles south of PR imo.
Excellent read from Brad Pan's blog today about hurricane seasonal forecasts.

Link
Quoting 691. JLPR2:


97L looks better, there's definitely a LLC tightening up around 15N evidenced by the motion of the low level clouds.

Though in the looks department 97L is far from winning a beauty pageant.



I think is too far south at this point that it will be difficult for the low to cross PR. But plenty of rain will come anyway.
Quoting 676. Sfloridacat5:
18z NAM puts 97L right on top of P.R.


It better hurry and turn
697. Relix
Quoting 695. Tropicsweatherpr:


I think is too far south at this point that it will be difficult for the low to cross PR. But plenty of rain will come anyway.
Its making a Beeline for Mona or Eastern RD.
Quoting 665. IKE:
1h
NHC rightly removes dry air argument with 97L


TWO was written by Weather Prediction Center, so as usual he is wrong.
699. JLPR2
Quoting 695. Tropicsweatherpr:


I think is too far south at this point that it will be difficult for the low to cross PR. But plenty of rain will come anyway.


Probably, but then there is the problem that the NE side of a tropical system is usually its strongest and we should get it. :\
Quoting 680. Patrap:


At least someone gets it lol.


Some are kinda preoccupied with more distant things.
This blog needs sustenance! 97l ain't it.
Area to the east of 97l is robbing it of convergence!!
The season is so chaotic that the TV and radio mets in Puerto Rico are going crazy with 97L.
704. MahFL
97L is on the consus sat page now with quicker updates.

Quoting 696. HurricaneHunterJoe:


It better hurry and turn



like I said you guys you need too drop all the mode runs for 97L in tell we can get a recon fight in there with more mode run dated
Quoting 691. JLPR2:


97L looks better, there's definitely a LLC tightening up around 15N evidenced by the motion of the low level clouds.

Though in the looks department 97L is far from winning a beauty pageant.



Ha! if 97l were a beauty pageant contestant, she would rip her evening gown whilst falling down stairs, puke during her interview questions, and I don't even want to talk about the swimsuit competition.....
Quoting 698. nrtiwlnvragn:


TWO was written by Weather Prediction Center, so as usual he is wrong.


Only wrong about which agency wrote the TWO. I think he's right about the actual meteorology part.


little better not much looks wnw towards far eastern dom as it treks up and out nnw ward into extreme se bahama region
Quoting 707. Levi32:


Only wrong about which agency wrote the TWO. I think he's right about the actual meteorology part.


I would disagree, but thats an opinion. Dry air may not be an big issue currently, but it was previous days.
Quoting 684. Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 54 hours - 97L is on its way north to open seas. NAM has shifted further north on this run.


97L better hook right to get to that forecast point. 97L is at 63 and change west, P.R. is what? 65-67 west?
Quoting 33. CybrTeddy:
NASA isn't messing with the weather, the adverse affects by messing around with fire could do serious harm. Remember, hurricanes do serve a purpose. They cool off SSTs, bring heat to the poles, disburse heat across the Atlantic. If you take away the hurricane element something has to disburse the heat across the Atlantic, which in its own end could be even worse for people than if you'd simply allow hurricanes to go out to sea.

The answer isn't with NASA, it's simply a multi-year La Nina crossed with a continual warm AMO and -PDO. We're experiencing now what we saw in the 70s, loads of weak storms with one or two really noticeable ones. Looking at the current ENSO set-up, it's likely this will continue into next year.
?

-PDO +AMO and neutral to weak La Nina conditions are arguably the most favorable conditions you could ask for in the Atlantic. Multi-year La Ninas can become a problem, but we haven't been in a full blown multi-year La Nina. -PDO and neutral to near Nina conditions may help partially explain the global downturn in activity, but not the Atlantic's.
the mode runs are doing a vary poor job with 97L mode run turning out too sea why 97L is saying am going W
Quoting 710. nrtiwlnvragn:


I would disagree, but thats an opinion. Dry air may not be an big issue currently, but it was previous days.
Dry air was coming off the northeast coast of South America a couple of days ago.
Is there a reason the TWO was written by the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland and not by the NHC?
Quoting 713. Tazmanian:
the mode runs are doing a vary poor job with 97L mode run turning out too sea why 97L is saying am going W
Watch it go OTS. :D
Quoting 712. TomTaylor:
?

-PDO AMO and neutral to weak La Nina conditions are arguably the most favorable conditions you could ask for in the Atlantic. Multi-year La Ninas can become a problem, but we haven't been in a full blown multi-year La Nina. -PDO and neutral to near Nina conditions may help partially explain the global downturn in activity, but not the Atlantic's.


Clearly not always, seeing as 2013 is the current state it's in. What I'm trying to say is that there's no focus of heat in our basin due to warm water in the northern latitudes of the Atlantic and near the poles. Also, I'm aware we haven't been in a true La Nina state since 2010, I don't believe we've recorded a multi-year neutral phase which is interesting, I'm just comparing that the effects might be similar to what we saw in the 70s.
Quoting 716. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Watch it go OTS. :D



you cant call it OTS after it all ready it land
Quoting 715. VAbeachhurricanes:
Is there a reason the TWO was written by the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland and not by the NHC?


Once a month WPC does a TWO to demonstrate their capability as NHC's backup.
Quoting 715. VAbeachhurricanes:
Is there a reason the TWO was written by the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland and not by the NHC?
they have been doing those a few times this season its like the third one I seen this season

maybe give some interns a chance to write up stuff or a test for when Miami goes off line in a storm or other event
Quoting 718. Tazmanian:



you cant call it OTS after it all ready it land
It hasn't developed yet though, so if it goes over PR without developing it could go OTS.
Make the trough or miss the trough?
Quoting 717. CybrTeddy:


Clearly not, seeing as 2013 is the current state it's in. What I'm trying to say is that there's no focus of heat in our basin due to warm water in the northern latitudes of the Atlantic and near the poles.
OR there could be something else going on that you are missing lol

And yes, I agree about the heat being focused in midlatitudes. But that is not necessarily a result of the PDO and AMO state. AMO and PDO both tend to focus the warmest SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, based off correlations. That has not been the case this year.


Some cold tops in there
Quoting 719. nrtiwlnvragn:


Once a month WPC does a TWO to demonstrate their capability as NHC's backup.


Gotcha, makes sense. I thought the writing was a bit off per usual, didn't realize it was a different agency.
Quoting 724. TomTaylor:
OR there could be something else going on that you are missing lol

And yes, I agree about the heat being focused in midlatitudes. But that is not necessarily a result of the PDO and AMO state. AMO and PDO both tend to focus the warmest SSTs around 10-20N in the tropical Atlantic, based off correlations.


Must be.
97L is looking very good in my opinion.
Quoting 683. Ameister12:
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. (Or 'til it's November 30th)




Sorry, couldn't resist. Although I cannot see her big shadow yet in this season, lol.

Good night with this, stay well with 97L (rhyming!).
Quoting 729. BrandenCordeiro:
97L is looking very good in my opinion.


Mine too.
Surface map. East coast currently has blocking High pressure building in.
Quoting 724. TomTaylor:
OR there could be something else going on that you are missing lol

And yes, I agree about the heat being focused in midlatitudes. But that is not necessarily a result of the PDO and AMO state. AMO and PDO both tend to focus the warmest SSTs around 10-20N in the tropical Atlantic, based off correlations.
Explain the strong ridging in the far eastern atlantic and fall like troughs, and that may be your answer, Upper Level Lows splitting off those troughs causing shear. So what's the main thing causing all this? Global Warming? I mean I really do think it is time to start taking Global Warming into consideration for the lack of activity so far this year and the recurving pattern the last few seasons.
735. MahFL
Quoting 718. Tazmanian:



you cant call it OTS after it all ready it land


You can really as no tropical cyclone has yet formed from 97L.
Quoting 688. Levi32:


I haven't seen any evidence that the actual circulation of 97L has been invaded by dry air. The outflow boundaries to the northwest I think are being caused by the accelerating trade wind flow to their west, which is pulling air down, causing convective cells to collapse. Such downdrafts can then in turn create some dry air along the northern periphery, but the point is I don't think dry air has ever really been an issue for 97L. It's been nearby, but not entrained. The inhibitor has been elongated structure and lack of the convergence necessary to sustain a CDO.


Totally agree! The broad, elongated structure has been unconventional, and it's been very difficult for it to overcome. But I do think dry air has been a contributor to hindering development. Another blogger, Beell I think, suggested there may be/have been more dry air at the surface than water vapor charts have revealed. That, coupled with "some" SA continental dry air certainly has not helped development.
738. wpb
peak of season and 97l is the topic. a bust so farto say the least last week of sept first two of oct could be heavy.otherwise all the pro predictors will eat crow.
Quoting 738. wpb:
peak of season and 97l is the topic. a bust so farto say the least last week of sept first two of oct could be heavy.otherwise all the pro predictors will eat crow.


I agree. 97L has been a farto. ;P
Quoting 738. wpb:
peak of season and 97l is the topic. a bust so farto say the least last week of sept first two of oct could be heavy.otherwise all the pro predictors will eat crow.

ggo bicker somewhere else
Quoting 739. moonlightcowboy:


I agree. 97L has been a farto. ;P


LOL!! I think that pretty much sums up the season thus far....

A farto.
Quoting 658. Camille33:
There is a growing risk of a significant tropical cyclone impacting the se conus by mid part of next week.
Please Show Us.
Fish storms? How about a reptile storm in Mississippi? Record for biggest gator taken in Mississippi broken twice in one day.


Mississippi's fattest alligator tale
Quoting 738. wpb:
peak of season and 97l is the topic. a bust so farto say the least last week of sept first two of oct could be heavy.otherwise all the pro predictors will eat crow.
well if its crow it will be for us all most were seeing a big season
Who, what, why: How does a skyscraper melt a car?

Excerpt:

The car wasn't the only casualty. There have also been reports of a smouldering bicycle seat, singed fabric and blistered paintwork.
Quoting 733. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Explain the strong ridging in the far eastern atlantic and fall like troughs, and that may be your answer, Upper Level Lows splitting off those troughs causing shear. So what's the main thing causing all this? Global Warming? I mean I really do think it is time to start taking Global Warming into consideration for the lack of activity so far this year and the recurving pattern the last few seasons.


Wait like 20 more years
Quoting 742. nash36:


LOL!! I think that pretty much sums up the season thus far....

A farto.


The thing is, if this season doesn't get it's act together, next season could get pretty bad...
Uh Oh........Global Warming........Guess Politics are next....Out for a break...Season 7 of 24 here I come. Aloha
Quoting 636. opal92nwf:
What's this, what's this?!! I see?
It reminds me of Erin models bring her south and this one looks poise to do the same.
Quoting 728. CybrTeddy:


Must be.
Actually, it looks like you were hitting the nail on the head, at least with the PDO. The -PDO may be largely responsible for the unfavorable SST profile we have seen set up in the northern Atlantic this year. If you compare this year's SST anomaly pattern so far to what we normally see in a -PDO year, the correlation is remarkable:

-PDO correlated with north Atlantic SSTs for Jul-Aug




Jul-Aug 2013 SST Anomalies




It appears the PDO is largely explaining the warm mid-latitude SST anomalies in the Atlantic. The warm mid-latitude SSTs limit rising motion on the equatorial side of the Hadley cell, killing tropical activity in our basin and across the Pacific. The same is also true in the West Pacific basin where mid-latitude SSTs are well above average and creating a similar problem for tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, the PDO's ability to regulate the ENSO (keeping it around La Nina to neutral for the last few years) is keeping the global tropics fairly cool, further limiting tropical cyclone activity. The PDO continues to amaze me with how much influence it has on the entire global atmospheric circulation.
Quoting 690. CybrTeddy:


I'm in the "hey, major hurricanes happen even in the most boring of seasons" level.
Not all of them produce majors I believe there have been seasons without majors.
It does have that "look" about it.

Quoting 754. allancalderini:
Not all of them produce majors I believe there have been seasons without majors.


Not in 19 years, and that was a deep El Nino.
Quoting 748. FunnelVortex:


The thing is, if this season doesn't get it's act together, next season could get pretty bad...


What makes you say that?
Quoting 753. TomTaylor:
Actually, it looks like you were hitting the nail on the head, at least with the PDO. The -PDO may be largely responsible for the unfavorable SST profile we have seen set up in the northern Atlantic this year. If you compare this year's SST anomaly pattern so far to what we normally see in a -PDO year, the correlation is remarkable:

-PDO correlated with north Atlantic SSTs for Jul-Aug




Jul-Aug 2013 SST Anomalies




It appears the PDO is largely explaining the warm mid-latitude SST anomalies in the Atlantic. The warm mid-latitude SSTs limit rising motion on the equatorial side of the Hadley cell, killing tropical activity in our basin and across the Pacific. The same is also true in the West Pacific basin where mid-latitude SSTs are well above average and creating a similar problem for tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, the PDO's ability to regulate the ENSO (keeping it around La Nina to neutral for the last few years) is keeping the global tropics fairly cool, further limiting tropical cyclone activity. The PDO continues to amaze me with how much influence it has on the entire global atmospheric circulation.


Well the top image isn't actually that unfavorable. A band of cooler SSTs along 30N relative to warm SSTs north and south is what is usually associated with above-average hurricane activity. The vanilla negative PDO pattern is not unfavorable for the Atlantic.

Quoting 757. VAbeachhurricanes:


What makes you say that?


Me and a few other bloggers speculate that if this season doesn't use up enough of the energy, then it will be left over and boost next season.
Convection still rising over 97L and there seems to be a developing MLC over the LLC. Honestly, it seems to me liek all it needs for TD status is more convection, and it doesn't seem to be feeling DMIN at all right now so I wouldn't be surprised if it got there overnight.
Quoting 672. Levi32:


At least someone gets it lol.

Dry air was a problem in the midlevels till about yesterday afternoon. Why they kept it at the 8am adv...I don't know.
762. IKE

97L wants to go W for awhile.
some models shifted back west a little




765. JLPR2
97L took over the ULAC, so the disturbance to the east related to the other TW is getting shredded by wind-shear.

766. TXCWC
Quoting 756. CybrTeddy:


Not in 19 years, and that was a deep El Nino.
This could be very well our first another record I want to broke. last year only two reach MH and only for 6 hours each.
earlier they were all over Puerto rico

Quoting 766. TXCWC:


Looking good.
Quoting 762. IKE:

we are getting hammered in LA.
Quoting 764. WoodyFL:
some models shifted back west a little





It could shift W again
773. JLPR2
Quoting 764. WoodyFL:
some models shifted back west a little






Despite that I think 97L will make its way to E-DR or try to pass though the Mona Channel.
The second spin to the east is interacting with our invest which should add a bit of northward motion as they dance around each other. At least that's what I think...

Quoting 759. FunnelVortex:


Me and a few other bloggers speculate that if this season doesn't use up enough of the energy, then it will be left over and boost next season.

It wouldn't be an accurate hypothesis.
Quoting 765. JLPR2:
97L took over the ULAC, so the disturbance to the east related to the other TW is getting shredded by wind-shear.



A very impressive ULAC. I do think 97L will develop, I'm just curious to see how strong it gets. The 12z GFS showed it splitting - convective feedback perhaps - and the northern low becoming a 1000mb storm, I imagine if the energy remains piled up it could become a moderate to strong TS. The intensity model consensus is quite a bit higher, so that tells me the conditions in the western Atlantic are favorable to support 97L as it goes out to sea assuming that's the path it takes.
2100 vorticity maps still show 97L stretched out like silly putty. Lower convergence is lousy too.
Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wouldn't be an accurate hypothesis.
As they say in "Family Feud" Good answer
14.9N/63.8W, just my take.
Looks like the only way to go slow movement between 2 ULLs


Boy it's wicked outside right know, it's black as a ace of spades. Lightning everywhere. It's scarey.

sheri
Quoting 772. wunderkidcayman:

It could shift W again
bams says it wil, has said that all along..we'll see, i just do not want this going into the gulf with that storm gasoline hot water there..
Quoting 781. Patrap:
Looks like it is starting to turn towards the northwest.
over 90 mph no way!
Quoting 783. catastropheadjuster:
Boy it's wicked outside right know, it's black as a ace of spades. Lightning everywhere. It's scarey.

sheri
Where are you Sheri?
Those models are tracking a TC.....not an Invest.
790. FOREX
Quoting 780. stormpetrol:
14.9N/63.8W, just my take.


Looks more of a westward than WNW movement. Your opinion??
it looks like a lot of dry air is around 97. correct me if im wrong. I know you want to.


Quoting 775. CybrTeddy:


A very impressive ULAC. I do think 97L will develop, I'm just curious to see how strong it gets. The 12z GFS showed it splitting - convective feedback perhaps - and the northern low becoming a 1000mb storm, I imagine if the energy remains piled up it could become a moderate to strong TS. The intensity model consensus is quite a bit higher, so that tells me the conditions in the western Atlantic are favorable to support 97L as it goes out to sea assuming that's the path it takes.

not going ots but that would be nice
Quoting 783. catastropheadjuster:
Boy it's wicked outside right know, it's black as a ace of spades. Lightning everywhere. It's scarey.

sheri
Stay safe over there Sheri.
panhandle getting storms this afternoon...............
Quoting 776. scott39:
2100 vorticity maps still show 97L stretched out like silly putty. Lower convergence is lousy too.


The vorticity maps are deceiving. While it looks elongated, it isn't at all. 97L and the low to the NE are pretty isolated in terms of their respective LLCs. They're not fighting with each other. There may be a little bit of N-S elongation in 97L itself, but it's very minor. The two lows in close proximity makes it seem like it's one stretched low, when it's just the former - two lows very close to each other. Each circulation is closed and nearly circular. The only competition between these two lows seems to be that they are taking each other's convergence away, but they should get farther as the Eastern one tracks NW and 97L tracks W-WNW.
796. Relix
Hahaha the usual WNW-West debate we have every time. Usually I am against the west movement but this time, I believe its moving at 285 degrees. The convective mass is spinning that way.
Quoting 783. catastropheadjuster:
Boy it's wicked outside right know, it's black as a ace of spades. Lightning everywhere. It's scarey.

sheri
Im going through it now. Many lightning strikes in SW Al.
Once this develops you're pretty much going to hear this..."It's going west, no it's going north, no it's taken a dive towards the southwest, wait it's beginning to recurve OTS the US is safe from another one."
Quoting 790. FOREX:


Looks more of a westward than WNW movement. Your opinion??


For now, imo its moving due west or 270 degrees, of course that could change.
anybody want a good laugh. look at #7 and see what Category they put down

Link
Quoting 780. stormpetrol:
14.9N/63.8W, just my take.

Yeah I'd agree
Quoting 798. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Once this develops you're pretty much going to hear this..."It's going west, no it's going north, no it's taken a dive towards the southwest, wait it's beginning to recurve OTS the US is safe from another one."
go west young man go west lol


It's an S!
We've talked about 97L cause it's the most threatening thing so far, but what about the yellow circle over the Yucatan?
97L is moving forward.
Quoting 797. scott39:
Im going through it now. Many lightning strikes in SW Al.
be extra creful..lightning killed a guy in south florida a few days ago..put 2 more in the hospital...scary this storm season is..regular storms not tropical.
808. FOREX
Quoting 805. scott39:
97L is moving forward.


Westward forward with maybe a slight, and I mean very slight WNW movement.lol
I don't think there is any correlation between a previous years storm numbers and the current one.
Quoting 806. LargoFl:
be extra creful..lightning killed a guy in south florida a few days ago..put 2 more in the hospital...scary this storm season is..regular storms not tropical.
Thanks, I probably need to move away from my computer by the window :O
Quoting 799. stormpetrol:


For now, imo its moving due west or 270 degrees, of course that could change.

I say after a small tug NEward with the convection it's back to W with maybe slight jog S of due W

Also new map suggest more WSW movement last map suggested more W movement

New


Old
I need that bouys pressure to continue to dip...its leveled off at the same place it did earlier today...

Quoting 798. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Once this develops you're pretty much going to hear this..."It's going west, no it's going north, no it's taken a dive towards the southwest, wait it's beginning to recurve OTS the US is safe from another one."


Oh, and stationary.
GEEZ if these storms hold together the west coast of florida is in for it..
btw, good afternoon everyone...i see 97l is still looking pretty rough...

and i had a question...if there isn't dry air affecting the system, why does it look like there are outflow boundary's EVERYWHERE! ...lol
GFS at 90 hours puts 97L just north of Haiti.
I guess this thing would have to take a hard right turn soon to stay with models, correct?
Quoting 820. hurricanewatcher61:
I guess this thing would have to take a hard right turn soon to stay with models, correct?

Yeah pretty much
97l= another complete US miss and fall apart
Quoting 823. RufusBaker:
97l= another complete US miss and fall apart
ITS GOING OUT TO SEA.
Could be two systems pouch 30L and pouch 25L.
I was right about invest 97L GOING OUT TO SEA. I SAID IT WAS GOING OUT TO SEA A FEW DAYS AGO.
Quoting 805. scott39:
97L is moving forward.


"forward"? What direction is that?
98L is that you on the GFS?

Quoting 772. wunderkidcayman:

It could shift W again


I think you may be right. After it turns completely north it could move more to the west.
INVEST 97L going to to sea the east east will be safe this year.. nice fall weather for the northeast this week


pretty.
Quoting 829. GTstormChaserCaleb:
98L is that you on the GFS?



And its going out to sea toooo....
Quoting 820. hurricanewatcher61:
I guess this thing would have to take a hard right turn soon to stay with models, correct?
that right and going out to the sea with the fish
Quoting 806. LargoFl:
be extra creful..lightning killed a guy in south florida a few days ago..put 2 more in the hospital...scary this storm season is..regular storms not tropical.
That was terrible Largo...They took shelter under a tractor trailer...
Quoting 829. GTstormChaserCaleb:
98L is that you on the GFS?




no am hiding I got a dress on so am hiding fro you



that's what 98L said to you
Quoting 833. RufusBaker:


And its going out to sea toooo....
LOL point proven in post 798. Want to predict anything else going OTS while you're at it? ;)
Quoting 804. JrWeathermanFL:
We've talked about 97L cause it's the most threatening thing so far, but what about the yellow circle over the Yucatan?
no threatening for the east coast
Quoting 830. WoodyFL:


I think you may be right. After it turns completely north it could move more to the west.

Lol no
842. SLU
Don't count out 98L. The ridge is strengthening to its north too.

Quoting 840. hurricanes2018:
no threatening for the east coast
Mexico is land where people live not just the east coast you know.
Really don't see anything to move 97L to the NW like the models keep claiming... Steering and ridging wouldn't support that at all.
Quoting 844. RascalNag:
Really don't see anything to move 97L to the NW like the models keep claiming... Steering and ridging wouldn't support that at all.


You got that right
Before it showed more W movement now it's gone back to W-WSW

High pressure building into the East coast is what turns 97L abruptly to the north. There's also another front that builds in right behind the one currently pushing offshore.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Captain trough has returned to the East Coast.

850. Relix
Its not moving WSW... come on. Guys. Come on. Be real. Its not moving WSW at all.
Quoting 835. hurricanes2018:
that right and going out to the sea with the fish


quoted, so tonight if the models shift west and you start warning the east coast, I can sit back and laugh...lol
Quoting 846. wunderkidcayman:


You got that right
Before it showed more W movement now it's gone back to W-WSW

You're wishcasting wunderkid.
854. TXCWC
Tough to tell where the actual low would be based solely on ASCAT pass couple hours ago. Has a way to go before reaching any type of storm status.

I've been in lurk mode most of the day.Not gonna waste time taking about a disabled invest and models again forecasting doom here and there.Well see ya.
GFS at 141 hours. 97L stretched out to the northeast. Only hope for 97L is if it can stay far enough south to miss being picked up by the trough.
Good evening,

Looks like 97l is going to make a run at a name in the next day or so. My uneducated for cast is west of the forcast points, as a tropical storm hitting southern florida. Unless it can stay way west of the forcasts, there is just to much in the way for it really get going. Where it would most likely not strengthen into a Cat 1 until its headed out to sea. Trade winds are still holding her back right now, but we should see a great cyclonic feature look tomorrow evening and they relax. My 2 cents
Quoting 844. RascalNag:
Really don't see anything to move 97L to the NW like the models keep claiming... Steering and ridging wouldn't support that at all.


There is no ridging. There is a deep trough that will be digging across the east coast of the US, but it's the weakness that is created ahead of the trough that will steer 97L NW, N, then eventually NE. Notice where the axis of the trough is by this Sunday. I also think the ULL just west of 97L is playing a small part of ejecting a NW "bump" into it. If the trough is delayed or 97L somehow picks up speed, then it may venture a little further west before turning. However, with all this said, I think the NAM does seem a little quick in the turn.

Link
Hmm...

Is it possible that the proximity of the two lows, 97L and the one to its NE, is making some models treat it like one system? Because for right now, I definitely can see the area to the East of the LEsser Antilles going out to sea, but the same can't be said for 97L. The GFS at least seems to have them dance around as two vorts in one system for a while. That's the only thing I can come up with for right now to explain why the models are taking it so drastically NW when steering and ridging suggests the opposite - the system to the NE drags it along with it. I'm highly skeptical of this to say the least, since one of them is only an invest atm (maybe a depression, definitely close to one) and the other looks a bit weaker. I'm not sure if they could pull off the perhaps fujiwhara sort of interaction that would allow the north eastern system to drag 97L away to the north.

Quoting 853. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're wishcasting wunderkid.

No wishcasting just laying down the facts that it

Quoting 853. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're wishcasting wunderkid.


I believe the NHC says a "general WNW movement."
Quoting 858. Chucktown:


There is no ridging. There is a deep trough that will be digging across the east coast of the US, but it's the weakness that is created ahead of the trough that will steer 97L NW, N, then eventually NE. Notice where the axis of the trough is by this Sunday. I also think the ULL just west of 97L is playing a small part of ejecting a NW "bump" into it. If the trough is delayed or 97L somehow picks up speed, then it may venture a little further west before turning. However, with all this said, I think the NAM does seem a little quick in the turn.

Link


The main thing that puzzles me is that it starts moving NW before the trough gets to it, as if the other low (which is being steered northwest) drags it along. Steering winds though would seem to indicate that before the trough gets there it would move WSW, not WNW.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
We've talked about 97L cause it's the most threatening thing so far, but what about the yellow circle over the Yucatan?
That one would probably intensify fast,a short life though , probably to an strong TS, before it hit Tampico, after a day or so on the waters of Campeche...
Quoting Patrap:
It Is heading WNW towards the Mona canal very close to the SW corner of Puerto Rico....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think is too far south at this point that it will be difficult for the low to cross PR. But plenty of rain will come anyway.
Quoting 858. Chucktown:


There is no ridging. There is a deep trough that will be digging across the east coast of the US, but it's the weakness that is created ahead of the trough that will steer 97L NW, N, then eventually NE. Notice where the axis of the trough is by this Sunday. I also think the ULL just west of 97L is playing a small part of ejecting a NW "bump" into it. If the trough is delayed or 97L somehow picks up speed, then it may venture a little further west before turning. However, with all this said, I think the NAM does seem a little quick in the turn.

Link


Chuck, according to the WPC (if I am reading it correctly), some of the models have back off on the deepening of the trough, especially the Euro..

THE CRITICAL DIVERGENCE IS WITH
REGARD TO THE SECOND BATCH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SLATED TO
CROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z/03 EC GUIDANCE
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE RECENT GFS RUNS,
GEFS MEANS, AND CMCE MEANS. FURTHERMORE, THE 00Z/03 ECMWF BROKE
CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN THIS REGARD, AND THE LAST
FOUR ECENS MEANS HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY UNSTABLE. SUCH INSTABILITY IN
RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECENS MEAN LIKELY SIGNALS A
DECEPTIVELY COMPLEX FLOW COMING DOWN THE PIPE
A suspicious windy afternoon here in PR. It looks like a storm is coming our way...
Interestingly enough, after yesterday's gully-washers, we've so far had a clear and mostly sunny day.