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Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. sar2401
Quoting opal92nwf:

I'm confused. I must have my terms mixed up. I know that it's the time like now when the sun has gone down and it makes the thunderstorms weaken.

No, it's the opposite. From now until about an hour before sunrise the thunderstorms usually grow because the differential between the air temperatures and the water temperatures are small, or the water is actually warmer than the air. Now the air near the surface which is in contact with the water warms by conduction, and then begin to rise, so thunderstorms grow. Tropical storms not expanding at night is not a good sign for longevity.
Wouldn't it just follow the 1200 millibar line.?
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll go out on a limb and say that Tropical Wave approaching 55 West will catch up to 97L and help move it to start moving again towards the wnw.

Quoting 1968. moonlightcowboy:


Red, I appreciate your enthusiasm for an annular system, but 97L is anything but annular. Sorry.


I base my annular concerns on 1. persistence. 2. The donut ring presentation when there is one llc, which happened earlier yesteday, and maybe today (I was gone) 3. Wind field symmetry very tight with large footprint. 4. 'Innoculation' from destructive conditions.
2004. JRRP
Quoting 1997. Astrometeor:


I thought about saying something about his college being special, but it didn't sound right. Better to say he still has to learn then get a free day altogether. Now, most schools (regardless of level) are off tomorrow, including mine, but I still have homework to do.

Looked at the U of Miami and FAU and they're both off as well but didn't want to post it either.
Quoting 1973. Astrometeor:


It's a Labor Day for workers, not for educators and students. Education never stops.


I start school on Tuesday, not Monday.
Am I just weird or is anyone else here looking at the comment numbers thinking about the hurricane seasons that they represent? Lol
2008. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
This post says it all on how much the GFS has struggled since the upgrade. I mean you have models like the NAVGEM, UKMET, and CMC outperforming it? C'mon now. I'm really disappointed and upset about this.

I think several of us said it was a bad idea to change it over to the supercomputer during hurricane season. This seems to bear out that prediction. Do software and hardware upgrades at non-critical times.
Quoting 1996. 954FtLCane:

and why not either both or neither?


At the moment they are only forecasting one to develop - the southern one, but then they took that into Hispanolia as a T-wave.

Forecast the northern part to travel north of PR and wander around a bit.

Since most of the convection has waned in the southern section (the part just west of the Antilles at the moment, this appears to be the weaker section. At least in my totally amateurish evaluation. So the 2am TWDAT should be an interesting read.
Quoting 2007. opal92nwf:
Am I just weird or is anyone else here looking at the comment numbers thinking about the hurricane seasons that they represent? Lol

LOL, for me it was the year I was born. I'm not saying which post that was though.
Hmm pre-98L in the nw Caribbean looks decent right now. I'm sure it has a shot. Mexico OR Not.
Quoting 2008. sar2401:

I think several of us said it was a bad idea to change it over to the supercomputer during hurricane season. This seems to bear out that prediction. Do software and hardware upgrades at non-critical times.

Ukmet has always outperform it!!
Gabrielle
Quoting 1975. swflurker:
I would also like someone to try to lend an explanation for this.They have influenced our weather hear in S.Fl. Mayby Levi has an answer?
It's true these ULL's is messing up the atmosphere for our tropical systems this year that have tried to develop closer to home. The Eastern Atlantic has contended with the stable airmass produced by the outbreaks of SAL.
Quoting 1996. 954FtLCane:

and why not either both or neither? I would hedge my bets on the southern one though. Just seems the most likely of the two.


Currently, the Euro and the GFS have the southern portion getting entangled in Hispanolia and Cuba. Then continuing off to the west.
Quoting 2003. redwagon:


I base my annular concerns on 1. persistence. 2. The donut ring presentation when there is one llc, which happened earlier yesteday, and maybe today (I was gone) 3. Wind field symmetry very tight with large footprint. 4. 'Innoculation' from destructive conditions.


Good reasoning for sure. I just don't see anything much but a mostly disorganized mess. Looked much better six or eight hours ago.
2017. sar2401
Quoting redwagon:


I base my annular concerns on 1. persistence. 2. The donut ring presentation when there is one llc, which happened earlier yesteday, and maybe today (I was gone) 3. Wind field symmetry very tight with large footprint. 4. 'Innoculation' from destructive conditions.

Red, 97L is is in a state of near collapse. Forget annular. If it doesn't get it's act together by sunrise, it's in big trouble.
Quoting 2011. RGVtropicalWx13:
Hmm pre-98L in the nw Caribbean looks decent right now. I'm sure it has a shot. Mexico OR Not.

Looks like more rain for me that's all that may change
Quoting 2014. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's true these ULL's is messing up the atmosphere for our tropical systems this year that have tried to develop closer to home. The Eastern Atlantic has contended with the stable airmass produced by the outbreaks of SAL.

I remember in one of Levi's tidbits in the beginning of the season he was saying that there were going to be a lot of ULL and he explained why. I think they were breaking off of troughs or something?
Quoting 2009. daddyjames:


At the moment they are only forecasting one to develop - the southern one, but then they took that into Hispanolia as a T-wave.

Forecast the northern part to travel north of PR and wander around a bit.

Since most of the convection has waned in the southern section (the part just west of the Antilles at the moment, this appears to be the weaker section. At least in my totally amateurish evaluation. So the 2am TWDAT should be an interesting read.

OK, I gotcha, I had modified the previous quote you replied to (#1996)and mentioned that I would suspect if one was to be chosen it would be the southern one but I'm not an expert by any means as well.
Quoting 1994. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No it's not even that man, just track the low level vorticity and you will see what I mean, I would have expected by that time the system either getting absorbed by a trough pushing off the East Coast and going OTS or making landfall already. It's common sense man, the atmosphere doesn't move that slow. We need to think what makes meteorological sense, and the GFS model is not making sense here of late. Remember what it did with 97L before it emerged off the coast of Africa last week, it strengthened it quite quickly withing the 3-5 day window, that never happened. I'm sorry for those who sit here and worship the GFS model, but it has been off, and you're ignorant if you can't see that.


just saying Scottsvb is one of the best on this blog..PERIOD!!!! I don't know why some are bashing the GFS...again the GFS so far with this system has been correct has it not. Tomorrow the GFS might even show something....UNTIL it shows nothing while something is there....I will stick with the GFS until proven wrong.
Quoting 2012. Camille33:

Ukmet has always outperform it!!
That I disagree with as the GFS outperformed all the models last year. And for once can you stop yelling please.
Quoting 1973. Astrometeor:


It's a Labor Day for workers, not for educators and students. Education never stops.
That off day is added to Thanksgiving break so I can't really complain in long term... also, educators is workers and they got union too like all workers. Just saying.
Quoting 2016. moonlightcowboy:


Good reasoning for sure. I just don't see anything much but a mostly disorganized mess. Looked much better six or eight hours ago.

M

Thank you, Sir, I've been trying to catch up with no view of 97L since 11am.
Can someome post 500 mb NH heights for models avgs thanks!!
I really don't trust any models right now. I know it's still an invest, but it's nowcasting time even though it's early. Also, East Caribbean isn't going to let storm develops until Jamaica area so we would have to be patient.
right now no more invest 96L die out with t.storms and rain now invest 97L DIE OUT TONIGHT..this is crazy!
Quoting 2011. RGVtropicalWx13:
Hmm pre-98L in the nw Caribbean looks decent right now. I'm sure it has a shot. Mexico OR Not.



NOPE ...no Vorticity there at all....purely Divergence....it will fade soon.

Quoting 2026. Bluestorm5:
I really don't trust any models right now. I know it's still an invest, but it's nowcasting time even though it's early. Also, East Caribbean isn't going to let storm develops until Jamaica area so we would have to be patient.
I agree, blog needs to stop jumping on the doomsday predictions, little early for that stuff. 
Quoting 2008. sar2401:

I think several of us said it was a bad idea to change it over to the supercomputer during hurricane season. This seems to bear out that prediction. Do software and hardware upgrades at non-critical times.
The thing you would want to see is either show no development and it pans out or show development and that pans out, don't go ghost on us only to try and show it again, I hardly call that an improvement, maybe give it some time this season, and next year it will do better.
Quoting 2026. Bluestorm5:
I really don't trust any models right now. I know it's still an invest, but it's nowcasting time even though it's early. Also, East Caribbean isn't going to let storm develops until Jamaica area so we would have to be patient.
I do not see anything happern to invest 97L RIGHT NOW and did you see what happern to invest 96L DIE OUT TO
Quoting 2031. hurricanes2018:
I do not see anything happern to invest 97L RIGHT NOW and did you see what happern to invest 96L DIE OUT TO

did you see tim tebow got cut right now!
2033. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll go out on a limb and say that Tropical Wave approaching 55 West will catch up to 97L and help move it to start moving again towards the wnw.


That's a pretty long limb. :-) When that wave catches up, it will be weak, and only serve to draw more dry air into the combined circulation. I think 97L will swallow it whole and nothing will happen. The forces that are keeping it stationary now are not going to be changed by a weak wave.
And in other news...

Peru: Six Killed in Heavy Snowstorm

September 1, 2013

A late-winter snowstorm is has now killed 6 people and more than 30,000 domestic animals in southern Peru and promted a declaration of a state of emergency.
Link
Quoting 1997. Astrometeor:


I thought about saying something about his college being special, but it didn't sound right. Better to say he still has to learn then get a free day altogether. Now, most schools (regardless of level) are off tomorrow, including mine, but I still have homework to do.


Busy work with lots of homework is nothing odd for meteorology majors, I'm booked, meteorology is my life right now, and I'm not bothered by it :)

Quoting 2019. opal92nwf:

I remember in one of Levi's tidbits in the beginning of the season he was saying that there were going to be a lot of ULL and he explained why. I think they were breaking off of troughs or something?



ULL's come off the tails of troughs in between Highs and Low's that break of the tails. Once started they can spin for many days until they unwind. We have had as I have noted many fronts this year. I am one that believes that the early sign of an early winter in the Artic was the sign of an average season in the tropics. I noted that in my blog the first week in August.
Hurricane Ophelia is my poster-child for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, what's yours?

What a beauty
At 72 hours:
GFS


ECMWF


Shows the Vorticity being cut in half by the Greater Antilles. Currently both models develop the northern portion - that north of PR
Quoting 2036. TampaSpin:



ULL's come off the tails of troughs in between Highs and Low's that break of the tails. Once started they can spin for many days until they unwind. We have had as I have noted many fronts this year. I am one that believes that the early sign of an early winter in the Artic was the sign of an average season in the tropics. I noted that in my blog the first week in August.
I do remember you stating that earlier in the season and currently that is what is going on as we have this persistent trough off the East Coast. By the way I wasn't jumping on Scottsvb I'm just really frustrated with the models right now, even in the short range which shows development and a strengthening system one run only for the next run to kill it off completely. It really does come down to nowcasting now and a good look at the surface charts, and cimss products, along with the actual satellite imagery.
2040. scott39
Quoting 2026. Bluestorm5:
I really don't trust any models right now. I know it's still an invest, but it's nowcasting time even though it's early. Also, East Caribbean isn't going to let storm develops until Jamaica area so we would have to be patient.
People start to loose interest quickly when they dont see thunderstorms blooming like the 4th of July. Its all about the dance when tracking an Invest. Yes, 97L needs thunderstorms. Does it mean the dance is over? Of course not. Learning more about the development of a TC will help everyone know when to quit or keep dancing.
Quoting 2026. Bluestorm5:
I really don't trust any models right now. I know it's still an invest, but it's nowcasting time even though it's early. Also, East Caribbean isn't going to let storm develops until Jamaica area so we would have to be patient.

How long do you think it will take to get to Jamaica?
2-3 days?
2042. Gearsts
Quoting 2004. JRRP:
All the models taking it north over us
Quoting 2039. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I do remember you stating that earlier in the season and currently that is what is going on as we have this persistent trough off the East Coast. By the way I wasn't jumping on Scottsvb I'm just really frustrated with the models right now, even in the short range which shows development and a strengthening system one run only for the next run to kill it off completely. It really does come down to nowcasting now and a good look at the surface charts, and cimss products, along with the actual satellite imagery.

did you find 500 mb model avgs ?
New YouTube Tropical Weather Discussion:

Link
Quoting 2028. TampaSpin:



NOPE ...no Vorticity there at all....purely Divergence....it will fade soon.

I WASN'T speaking vorticity wise just convection. Besides the NHC says this has a shot in BOC in a few days. Just remember last weekend when a blogger say Fernand would form in the BOC and you said it wouldn't? Well look what happen then. Same thing tonight as last week. I'm NOT saying this is gonna form NOW. But in the BOC it HAS a shot develop.
You can see the TW I'm talking about approaching 97L on shortwave imagery.

I hate to even post this GFS current run at 384hrs out...but it shows a Carolina system from 97L


2048. JRRP
Quoting daddyjames:
At 72 hours:
GFS


ECMWF


Shows the Vorticity being cut in half by the Greater Antilles. Currently both models develop the northern portion - that north of PR

that is from 12z
Quoting 2046. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You can see the TW I'm talking about approaching 97L on shortwave imagery.


Yeah, it should help with moisture
2050. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
All the models taking it north over us

yeah
2051. scott39
Quoting 2045. RGVtropicalWx13:

I WASN'T speaking vorticity wise just convection. Besides the NHC says this has a shot in BOC in a few days. Just remember last weekend when a blogger say Fernand would form in the BOC and you said it wouldn't? Well look what happen then. Same thing tonight as last week. I'm NOT saying this is gonna form NOW. But in the BOC it HAS a shot develop.
BOC can spin up some quick.
2052. Gearsts
Not getting better organize
2053. scott39
Quoting 2047. TampaSpin:
I hate to even post this GFS current run at 384hrs out...but it shows a Carolina system from 97L


from 97L?
Quoting 2048. JRRP:

that is from 12z


Only one I can get access for the ECMWF to compare at the moment.

0Z on the GFS is showing this still, but developing the vorticity to the North of Puerto Rico.
Quoting 2039. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I do remember you stating that earlier in the season and currently that is what is going on as we have this persistent trough off the East Coast. By the way I wasn't jumping on Scottsvb I'm just really frustrated with the models right now, even in the short range which shows development and a strengthening system one run only for the next run to kill it off completely. It really does come down to nowcasting now and a good look at the surface charts, and cimss products, along with the actual satellite imagery.


bro, I never look at just one run on any model....I only look at a persistent run of all the models. I look at the consensus of them all to even try to determine anything. Seems the NHC does much the same although, they do have their favorite models more than others I do believe.
Quoting 2047. TampaSpin:
I hate to even post this GFS current run at 384hrs out...but it shows a Carolina system from 97L




TS, come on, man! 384 hours out?
Quoting 2037. opal92nwf:
Hurricane Ophelia is my poster-child for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, what's yours?

What a beauty


Well, if I had to choose a storm to represent this season, I would have to go with T.S. Jose. No idea where this season has gone.

That's my point and I'm not saying anymore. Later folks.
Quoting 2056. moonlightcowboy:


TS, come on, man! 384 hours out?



LOL...I knew someone would say something...I was ready tho....HEHEHEHE
2060. sar2401
For those of you who have already forgotten Dr.Master's Blog of August 29, I suggest you read it again. Models are generally not good at genesis of storms, just some are worse than others. They tend to be really poor on track when we have a weak, shallow low, and ridiculously bad when it comes to intensity. When we have at least a TD and it's within 4 or 5 days of landfall, then it's time to pay attention to models, especially the ensemble. For intensity, the models have less that a 50/50 chance of being within one category of being right within three days before landfall. Showing models predicting a cat 4 now is like showing models from a guy who claims he can predict winning lotto numbers.
2061. scott39
Looks like we have a "little" thunderstorm action popping around the broad center of 97L.
Quoting 2039. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm just really frustrated with the models right now, even in the short range which shows development and a strengthening system one run only for the next run to kill it off completely. It really does come down to nowcasting now and a good look at the surface charts, and cimss products, along with the actual satellite imagery.


Bravo, GT, you've become the wiser.
2063. scott39
Quoting 2059. TampaSpin:



LOL...I knew someone would say something...I was ready tho....HEHEHEHE
97L is what made me Lol.
...And I thought I had seen EVERYTHING on the GFS week 2.......prints a TS trapped under a ridge in the Bahamas for days and days and.......

Quoting 2057. Astrometeor:


Well, if I had to choose a storm to represent this season, I would have to go with T.S. Jose. No idea where this season has gone.


Yeah, I chose Ophelia for the reasons on my latest blog and also cause I think that the most impressive storm we will get this year will be like Ophelia.
the CMC has a big recurve but now sorta the same look the GFS just showed. The CMC speeds it up while the GFS has it moving very slow...GFS just might be more accurate! MAYBE

here is 144hrs out

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
2068. scott39
If dry air in the mid levels sticks around....its going to be a long few days for 97L.
Quoting 2061. scott39:
Looks like we have a "little" thunderstorm action popping around the broad center of 97L.

Yep as D-max starts to fade in that will continue to build

Also I seem to have found a LLCOC I'm tracking it however I am waiting for a few more satellite images to come then I will publish my finding with graphics on this blog
No change which is the right thing to do

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020538
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

I believe they are acknowledging that TW aproaching 97L.
Quoting 2071. GTstormChaserCaleb:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

I believe they are acknowledging that TW aproaching 97L.


Everything to the east and north of the Antilles is considered the Tropical Atlantic.

corrected
Quoting 2072. daddyjames:


Everything to the west and north of the Antilles is considered the Tropical Atlantic.


More likely the Vorticity return possibly!

Quoting 2071. GTstormChaserCaleb:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

I believe they are acknowledging that TW aproaching 97L.

Umm no they are just including that extra convection that's off on its E side which the whole of 97L is elongated with it extending from the lesser Antilles into the tropical Atlantic that tropical wave E of 97L is its own entity
Good night everyone.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting 2073. TampaSpin:


More likely the Vorticity return possibly!



Hey TS - correct west to east in my quote, so I don't look so dumb ;D
2079. scott39
It looks like that wave behind 97L is going to feed it some convection :)
2080. sar2401
Quoting scott39:
It looks like that wave behind 97L is going to feed it some convection :)

It's very interesting on satellite. The appearance of 97L has not improved, but the amount of thunderstorm activity in the wave has increased markedly. It looks like the wave is actually cannibalizing 97L
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

nice tropical wave here
Quoting 2078. daddyjames:


Hey TS - correct west to east in my quote, so I don't look so dumb ;D



ya I think you was right on...I just enforcing your thoughts...:)
2084. JRRP
2085. scott39
Quoting 2080. sar2401:

It's very interesting on satellite. The appearance of 97L has not improved, but the amount of thunderstorm activity in the wave has increased markedly. It looks like the wave is actually cannibalizing 97L
maybe, Or vice versa. I would think 97L would win that tug of war. You never know in the tropics. Thats why I find it so interesting. Wind shear looks to be rough for 97L if it stays south of 16N in the Eastern Caribbean.
2087. scott39
Quoting 2084. JRRP:
That seems unreal in 60 hours from now.Wind shear would be favorable for a NW track.
2088. scott39
Is the GFS and EURO in agreement on a more NW track for 97L?
2089. sar2401
Quoting Civicane49:

What a tremendous waste of time. Not you Civicane, but producing tracks and intensity when we don't even have a Best track, the GFS, or even an NHC official. Then we have one model going absolutely crazy with intensity. Total waste of money and resources they claim they don't have.
Center trying to form around 59 x 15;
That seems to be in agreement with the latest models run taking the "thing" north of PR.

The TW coming behind 97 maybe add some needed fuel or this "thing" may die all together.

I need surf on the Florida east coast !

Link

First I'm getting tired of seeing that stupid video playing every time I refresh the page,, anyone else getting that feed?

Next... again, year after year I always post. Don't go with any model after 5 days. GFS is decent out to 72hrs and the Euro on days 4-5 but again, doesn't mean if will verify..

Now with 97L. The T-Storms fell apart as I mentioned it will earlier today cause they were enhanced by 2 upper lows causing rising air. If this system wants to have it's own energy, it will need the drier air in the midlevels to fade out. Unfortunatly, the odds are 30% it will. Still though I see the midlevel moisture streaming N of Puerto Rico in 2-3 days. GFS is correct out to 3 days(60%) that midlevel moisture and a trough of LP will develop and move WNW towards the eastern Bahamas by day 5. Current 97L LLC-Vortex will move through the central carribean. Hard to tell if it will survive or not in the dry air that will follow it in the midlevels. After day 5.,, Depends on how strong the ridge is to the north of the Bahamas and how much developed the system east of the Bahamas is will determine the next few days movement.
Quoting 2088. scott39:
Is the GFS and EURO in agreement on a more NW track for 97L?


I believe so - an elongated vorticity splitting into two. Northern portion going over Hispaniola/PR. Southern part going west, south of or into Cuba.
2094. JRRP
Quoting scott39:
Is the GFS and EURO in agreement on a more NW track for 97L?

may be yes


Interestingly enough, if I am reading this correctly, the NHC has 34 kt winds in the Northeast Quadrant. If I am not reading it correctly, let me know.

We could have a TD in the morning - if the convection picks up.

Center fix is still south at 14N

AL, 97, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 140N, 607W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
97L, now that its stripped for us, shows some very impressive lines. Really shows the look of a system that's not that far off at all from forming. I know being void of any deep convection at the moment doesn't look good, but convection will fill back in later this morning into tomorrow, I think this may well be a TS by Tuesday afternoon if not sooner.
2097. ackee
97L seem to be too elongated to Develop anytime soon large system like 97L will take very long to get a tight LLC right now it just a wait and see for 97L
2098. scott39
Quoting 2060. sar2401:
For those of you who have already forgotten Dr.Master's Blog of August 29, I suggest you read it again. Models are generally not good at genesis of storms, just some are worse than others. They tend to be really poor on track when we have a weak, shallow low, and ridiculously bad when it comes to intensity. When we have at least a TD and it's within 4 or 5 days of landfall, then it's time to pay attention to models, especially the ensemble. For intensity, the models have less that a 50/50 chance of being within one category of being right within three days before landfall. Showing models predicting a cat 4 now is like showing models from a guy who claims he can predict winning lotto numbers.
I did read this. He also said in 2011 that the best GFS, EURO, UKMET ect... predicted TC genesis 9% to 23% of the entire season. thats means 77% to 91% of the time they didnt.
img src="">

Big storm forming from 97l soon!!!
2101. JRRP
Quoting 2092. scottsvb:
First I'm getting tired of seeing that stupid video playing every time I refresh the page,, anyone else getting that feed?



What video? Get adblock and popup blocker. I don't get any video starting when I refresh.
Quoting 2099. Camille33:
img src="">

Big storm forming from 97l soon!!!

i hope you are wrong!!
2104. JRRP
Quoting 2095. daddyjames:
Interestingly enough, if I am reading this correctly, the NHC has 34 kt winds in the Northeast Quadrant. If I am not reading it correctly, let me know.

We could have a TD in the morning - if the convection picks up.

Center fix is still south at 14N

AL, 97, 2013090200, , BEST, 0, 140N, 607W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Nope...need persistant convection for 18-24hrs
Fukishima news was very disturbing. Makes you wonder how they missed levels of radiation were 18 times higher than they thought. Hard to believe it was an oversight. Experts say Pacific will dilute the water coming to non-toxic levels. That's what their saying at least. The fact that you hear so little on what is happening there is not a good sign.
Quoting 2105. scottsvb:

Nope...need persistant convection for 18-24hrs


OK - then in the afternoon :)
Quoting 2106. Tribucanes:
Fukishima news was very disturbing. Makes you wonder how they missed levels of radiation were 18 times higher than they thought. Hard to believe it was an oversight. Experts say Pacific will dilute the water coming to non-toxic levels. That's what their saying at least. The fact that you hear so little on what is happening there is not a good sign.


Readings were from one of the holding tanks they had to construct to hold the contaminated water. I don't think those are readings they have gotten from water leaking into the ground/ocean. But who knows. Gotta feel for those guys working on the site.
Quoting 2100. daddyjames:


I thought that the levels at Fukishima were lethal if exposed for 4 hours. That coming to the US is not lethal thugh, correct?


I had heard the same that the current level of radiation being leaked would prove lethal to anyone directly exposed for 4 hours.

The plume crossing the Pacific will be highly diluted, I would guess, by the time it gets to the west coast here. The accumulative effect from continued leaks would be my concern.

Should there be an open air nuclear reaction of the fuel rods from one of the cooling ponds happened, then all bets are off. There is no way to stop an open air nuclear reaction from the fuel rods. It would continue no matter what efforts we tried to stop it. ... and the MOX is some bad stuff when not controlled.
00z UKMET: over Puerto Rico in 3 days.

Quoting 2109. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I had heard the same that the current level of radiation being leaked would prove lethal to anyone directly exposed for 4 hours.

The plume crossing the Pacific will be highly diluted, I would guess, by the time it gets to the west coast here. The accumulative effect from continued leaks would be my concern.

Should there be an open air nuclear reaction of the fuel rods from one of the cooling ponds happened, then all bets are off. There is no way to stop an open air nuclear reaction from the fuel rods. It would continue no matter what efforts we tried to stop it. ... and the MOX is some bad stuff when not controlled.


Yes, I know. Was reading (perhaps your posts) about the fact that they have to move the rods manually - and if they happen to drop one . . . "ooops!" would be the understatement of the new millennium.

Like I said, you gotta feel for those guys working on site.
AL, 97, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 140N, 597W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Can't say I'm buying the new more northerly track forecasts...unless the circulation is able to consolidate a lot further north than anticipated.
2114. JRRP
06 GMT 09/2/13 14.0N 59.7W 30 1008 Invest
2115. JRRP
Quoting 2112. Civicane49:
AL, 97, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 140N, 597W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Interesting they relocated the "center" to about 50-75 miles north of Barbados.
Quoting 2113. MiamiHurricanes09:
Can't say I'm buying the new more northerly track forecasts...unless the circulation is able to consolidate a lot further north than anticipated.

I ain't buyin it nor is the NHC
LGEM and SHIPS a little lighter on the intensity this time around.

V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 64 74 82 88 74 83 82
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 47 59 72 87 101 87 102 104
2120. JRRP
Quoting 2111. daddyjames:


Yes, I know. Was reading (perhaps your posts) about the fact that they have to move the rods manually - and if they happen to drop one . . . "ooops!" would be the understatement of the new millennium.

Like I said, you gotta feel for those guys working on site.


Yes, they have to move 1,300 fuel rods, just from cooling pond #4, and without a single mishap. One rod at a time. #4 cooling pond contains some MOX rods as well. This has always been performed with the aid of computers and a special crane. The computer held the data concerning all of the information on rods. What type of rod it is, its exact location and proximity to any other rods and how long the rod has been in the cooling pond. The computer, crane and complete data for each rod no longer exists. This all has to be done manually and without knowing the condition and position of each rod. ... Fun stuff.
Quoting 2117. wunderkidcayman:

I ain't buyin it nor is the NHC

???

What do you mean? NHC has it moving now to the W/NW at 10 kts, and bringing it over the greater Antilles by Tues-Thurs (it certainly is not going anywhere fast). The NHC has said this in the past two TWDATs.
Quoting 2121. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, they have to move 1,300 fuel rods, just from cooling pond #4, and without a single mishap. One rod at a time. #4 cooling pond contains some MOX rods as well. This has always been performed with the aid of computers and a special crane. The computer held the data concerning all of the information on rods. What type of rod it is, its exact location and proximity to any other rods and how long the rod has been in the cooling pond. The computer, crane and complete data for each rod no longer exists. This all has to be done manually and without knowing the condition and position of each rod. ... Fun stuff.


Betcha they draw straws! Then notice that the guy with the most unsteady hands wins the first round, and decide that was the elimination round . . . ;)
NHC has it moving more W bound S of Haiti and ESE of Jamaica in 72hrs



Quoting 2123. daddyjames:


Betcha they draw straws! Then notice that the guy with the most unsteady hands wins the first round, and decide that was the elimination round . . . ;)


Can you imagine the stress these workers will be working under?

Added - I am out for the night. Everyone stay safe and may your weather be whatever you wish it to be.
Quoting 2124. wunderkidcayman:
NHC has it moving more W bound S of Haiti and ESE of Jamaica in 72hrs





Center is currently placed at 14N - so a W/NW track seems pretty evident. By the time it gets there, should be moving more NW than West.
Track guidance has shifted more northward.

2128. Gearsts
Wave behind catching up
2129. JLPR2
So far the refire is small and weak, the popcorn convection that is supposed to be happening over 97L is occurring farther east in the intersection between the TW at 50W and 97L.



Well that's it for me, I'm out, goodnight all!
Quoting 2128. Gearsts:
Wave behind catching up


So, does this mean that another episode of "Would the real invest, please stand up?" is going to play out on the blog for the next 3-5 days?

Much like the great 92L debates that still are unresolved.
2131. IKE
i just died in your arms tonight.....


Quoting 2127. Civicane49:
Track guidance has shifted more northward.

Still a messy situation, until we get a discernible center the models will keep flip-flopping back and forth.
Quoting 2127. Civicane49:
Track guidance has shifted more northward.


Then it will shift southwards then northwards and then southwards again it's been doing the same thing
2134. JRRP
Quoting IKE:
i just died in your arms tonight.....



mmmmmm that image looks like a face
2135. IKE

Quoting JRRP:

mmmmmm that image looks like a face
Yeah it does....lol. 00Z ECMWF.....no canes through Sept. 12th.....breaking the record.
2136. JRRP
ups

see you tomorrow... or later... what ever
Quoting 2131. IKE:
i just died in your arms tonight.....




The "center" is that light grey patch o' low level clouds just north of where the convection is flaring up - just north of Barbados. Looks like its doing the right thing. Putting up cloud tops around the llc.

And on that note - I have to go play tooth fairy, then I am off to bed.
Quoting 2135. IKE:

Yeah it does....lol. 00Z ECMWF.....no canes through Sept. 12th.....breaking the record.

LOL.... not the type of record many that visit this website are clamoring for.
2139. IKE

Quoting 954FtLCane:

LOL.... not the type of record many that visit this website are clamoring for.
True. Back to sleep for me.


I don't understand the reason for this, and I... don't think it's going to happen. And it's not because I want 97L to reach me either, before anybody says anything, XD.

But I mean, what's causing this? Increasing influence from the upper low over eastern Haiti? The 850 mb does not support such a poleward bend.



I mean seriously, Puerto Rico? 97L is way too far south to feel that weakness south of Bermuda. In addition, the trough over the western Atlantic, if there is one, is very weak. There is an upper low trailing a cold front near Toronto, but the upper support appears locked in too far north to allow for a significant southward propagation of the associated shortwave.

I would really expect some westward shifts in the guidance today, especially since 97L is not likely to develop anytime soon.
Quoting 2140. KoritheMan:


I don't understand the reason for this, and I... don't think it's going to happen. And it's not because I want 97L to reach me either, before anybody says anything, XD.

But I mean, what's causing this? Increasing influence from the upper low over eastern Haiti? The 850 mb does not support such a poleward bend.



I mean seriously, Puerto Rico? 97L is way too far south to feel that weakness south of Bermuda. In addition, the trough over the western Atlantic, if there is one, is very weak. There is an upper low trailing a cold front near Toronto, but this the upper support appears locked in too far north to allow for a significant southward propagation of the associated shortwave.

I would really expect some westward shifts today, especially since 97L is not likely to develop anytime soon.

Thank you
Quoting 2139. IKE:

True. Back to sleep for me.

did you see that what new MODELS say!
beeli pointed out a weakness in the ridge to the north at the 500 mb level earlier. Maybe that is what is tugging it to the north?

Anyways, I was unsuccessful on the first tooth fairy attempt - attempt number two will be underway soon. otherwise, the tooth fairy ain't coming tonight!

This is one instance where I feel it's better to use your eyes rather than the models. Besides, we don't even have a well-defined center yet.
EP, 11, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1162W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 40, 1010, 125, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, S,
Quoting 2143. daddyjames:
beeli pointed out a weakness in the ridge to the north at the 500 mb level earlier. Maybe that is what is tugging it to the north?

Anyways, I was unsuccessful on the first tooth fairy attempt - attempt number two will be underway soon. otherwise, the tooth fairy ain't coming tonight!



What weakness? This is at the 500 mb level:



Again, there is clearly a weakness, but it's situated all the way at 26N 60W. How in the world is 97L going to feel that even remotely?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM YUTU (T1316)
15:00 PM JST September 2 2013
==============================

Midway Island Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Yutu (1004 hPa) located at 33.6N 177.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 34.1N 178.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
48 HRS: 34.0N 179.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
72 HRS: 33.8N 178.4W - Tropical Depression In Midway Island Waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TORAJI (T1317)
15:00 PM JST September 2 2013
==============================

Near Okinawa Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Toraji (996 hPa) located at 27.2N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 28.4N 126.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Amami Islands
48 HRS: 29.2N 127.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East China Sea
72 HRS: 29.8N 127.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East China Sea
Quoting 2140. KoritheMan:


I don't understand the reason for this, and I... don't think it's going to happen. And it's not because I want 97L to reach me either, before anybody says anything, XD.

But I mean, what's causing this? Increasing influence from the upper low over eastern Haiti? The 850 mb does not support such a poleward bend.



I mean seriously, Puerto Rico? 97L is way too far south to feel that weakness south of Bermuda. In addition, the trough over the western Atlantic, if there is one, is very weak. There is an upper low trailing a cold front near Toronto, but the upper support appears locked in too far north to allow for a significant southward propagation of the associated shortwave.

I would really expect some westward shifts in the guidance today, especially since 97L is not likely to develop anytime soon.

any back door cold fronts possibly moving n towards the middle of the week moving in? I remember someone posting a graphic earlier today that showed high pressure moving in from the NE down towards the Ohio Valley and continue the same trek. I'm checking to see if thats the case.
Quoting 2146. KoritheMan:


What weakness? This is at the 500 mb level:



Again, there is clearly a weakness, but it's situated all the way at 26N 60W. How in the world is 97L going to feel that even remotely?

Even with the way it is right now. That is not happening at all.
Quoting 2146. KoritheMan:


What weakness? This is at the 500 mb level:



Again, there is clearly a weakness, but it's situated all the way at 26N 60W. How in the world is 97L going to feel that even remotely?


Ask beeli - I'm trying to get into costume here :)

Have a good night all. We'll see - but don't you think that it is odd that it has averaged a westward motion of 5 mph for the past 12 hours? What's stopping it from going into the Caribbean? Just asking.
Quoting 2140. KoritheMan:


I don't understand the reason for this, and I... don't think it's going to happen. And it's not because I want 97L to reach me either, before anybody says anything, XD.

But I mean, what's causing this? Increasing influence from the upper low over eastern Haiti? The 850 mb does not support such a poleward bend.



I mean seriously, Puerto Rico? 97L is way too far south to feel that weakness south of Bermuda. In addition, the trough over the western Atlantic, if there is one, is very weak. There is an upper low trailing a cold front near Toronto, but the upper support appears locked in too far north to allow for a significant southward propagation of the associated shortwave.

I would really expect some westward shifts in the guidance today, especially since 97L is not likely to develop anytime soon.

I have a pretty good idea of what this will do...but im not saying just yet.
Quoting 2150. daddyjames:


Ask beeli - I'm trying to get into costume here :)

Have a good night all. We'll see - but don't you think that it is odd that it has averaged a westward motion of 5 mph for the past 12 hours? What's stopping it from going into the Caribbean? Just asking.


Nothing. It's also not unusual for a model consensus to undergo consistent and erratic shifts for a system lacking no well-defined center. And that's not even factoring in the tug o war Hispaniola likes to cause.
Quoting 2151. Stormchaser121:

I have a pretty good idea of what this will do...but im not saying just yet.


Fizzle?
Quoting 2153. KoritheMan:


Fizzle?

no not fizzle
Quoting 2148. 954FtLCane:

any back door cold fronts possibly moving n towards the middle of the week moving in? I remember someone posting a graphic earlier today that showed high pressure moving in from the NE down towards the Ohio Valley and continue the same trek. I'm checking to see if thats the case.


Even if there were, that doesn't explain the immediate west-northwest to northwest motion being forecast by the 6z dynamical consensus. Satellite images clearly depict the wave axis to be centered around 14N 57W, moving due west. It's easy to spot on shortwave infrared images, even if it's not the most well-defined axis in the world.

What they're projecting literally makes no sense. And if their forecast for the initial motion is off (which it is -- badly), the entire forecast will be off in the extended range.
Lol..go to Texas? :P
We really need a well established, closed low level center to track, when you have models doing squiggly lines you don't whether to trust them or not.

Quoting 2155. KoritheMan:


Even if there were, that doesn't explain the immediate west-northwest to northwest motion being forecast by the 6z dynamical consensus. Satellite images clearly depict the wave axis to be centered around 14N 57W, moving due west. It's easy to spot on shortwave infrared images, even if it's not the most well-defined axis in the world.

What they're projecting literally makes no sense. And if their forecast for the initial motion is off (which it is -- badly), the entire forecast will be off in the extended range.


I'm no expert by any means but these are the models that are speaking to us, anything is possible with computers as we've seen in the past.

Look at post 617 on this blog and see if that helps any. I just did some digging and found it
'Mornin' Kori........'ssup!

Quoting 2158. 954FtLCane:


I'm no expert by any means but these are the models that are speaking to us, anything is possible with computers as we've seen in the past.

Look at post 617 on this blog and see if that helps any. I just did some digging and found it


I'm not really sure we'll get a high that enormous over the Ohio Valley, but I'm also not willing to speculate on the upper flow pattern more than about five days in advance, and as we saw with Isaac, even that can be rather fickle.

I'm fairly confident it'll enter the Caribbean, however. I'm not afraid to go against the computers when what they're saying literally makes no sense, and has zero meteorological basis.
Quoting 2159. Kowaliga:
'Mornin' Kori........'ssup!



yo
Quoting 2155. KoritheMan:


Even if there were, that doesn't explain the immediate west-northwest to northwest motion being forecast by the 6z dynamical consensus. Satellite images clearly depict the wave axis to be centered around 14N 57W, moving due west. It's easy to spot on shortwave infrared images, even if it's not the most well-defined axis in the world.

What they're projecting literally makes no sense. And if their forecast for the initial motion is off (which it is -- badly), the entire forecast will be off in the extended range.


maybe it is these features - the high that has developed will strengthen, and 97L will follow the weakness caused by the stationary front. Just a guess.

A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED AROUND 0300 UTC NEAR 28N74W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-65W SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N60W TO 27N63W
Quoting 2162. daddyjames:


maybe it is these features - the high that has developed will strengthen, and 97L will follow the weakness caused by the stationary front. Just a guess.

A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED AROUND 0300 UTC NEAR 28N74W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-65W SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N60W TO 27N63W


That upper low and its attendant front is located north of Bermuda. There's no way 97L is going to feel that.
Quoting 2160. KoritheMan:


I'm not really sure we'll get a high that enormous over the Ohio Valley, but I'm also not willing to speculate on the upper flow pattern more than about five days in advance, and as we saw with Isaac, even that can be rather fickle.

I'm fairly confident it'll enter the Caribbean, however. I'm not afraid to go against the computers when what they're saying literally makes no sense, and has zero meteorological basis.

Okie dokie. Always fun trying to find a solution by starting at the answer, (or in this case something that might not be an answer) and trying to fill in the holes until you get to the beginning.
Quoting 2163. KoritheMan:


That upper low and its attendant front is located north of Bermuda. There's no way 97L is going to feel that.


Just throwing it out there. All I know is that NHC has been pulling it up to the north for the past couple of discussions. So they may be seeing something we aren't at the moment.
Quoting 2159. Kowaliga:
'Mornin' Kori........'ssup!


Looks like something is sitting there and doesn't want to go anywhere fast.
2167. TXCWC
0Z UKMET depression or storm north of Cuba



In line with GFS GEM ensemble mean (18Z run) in terms of forecast location



18Z 15km Hi-Res GFS/Enkf


0Z 15km FIM 9



and current 06Z consensus guidance for general location



THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW ORGANIZED OR UNORGANIZED OF A SYSTEM WILL WE HAVE
Quoting 2165. daddyjames:


Just throwing it out there. All I know is that NHC has been pulling it up to the north for the past couple of discussions. So they may be seeing something we aren't at the moment.


To be fair, I wasn't saying a WNW track up Hispaniola is unreasonable; I even hypothesized a possible NW bend toward the Bahamas earlier today, and I still consider that a viable solution, at least for the next day or two. But no northwestward turn is going to occur nearly as quick as the models are saying, and that's all I'm saying, lol.

But the NHC does also mention the possibility of a more westward motion as well, and they also say near or over Hispaniola, not necessarily just over.
In all fairness to the models they have been trending NW throughout the day. It didn't happen all at once.
Quoting 2168. KoritheMan:


To be fair, I wasn't saying a WNW track up Hispaniola is unreasonable; I even hypothesized a possible NW bend toward the Bahamas earlier today, and I still consider that a viable solution, at least for the next day or two. But no northwestward turn is going to occur nearly as quick as the models are saying, and that's all I'm saying, lol.

But the NHC does also mention the possibility of a more westward motion as well, and they also say near or over Hispaniola, not necessarily just over.


Gotta love this one...Euro dices it and runs the N half uptown (LOL!)...

Quoting 2169. 954FtLCane:
In all fairness to the models they have been trending NW throughout the day. It didn't happen all at once.

No they have been flopping N and E and flipping S and W alternating with each run
Quoting 2140. KoritheMan:


I don't understand the reason for this, and I... don't think it's going to happen. And it's not because I want 97L to reach me either, before anybody says anything, XD.

But I mean, what's causing this? Increasing influence from the upper low over eastern Haiti? The 850 mb does not support such a poleward bend.



I mean seriously, Puerto Rico? 97L is way too far south to feel that weakness south of Bermuda. In addition, the trough over the western Atlantic, if there is one, is very weak. There is an upper low trailing a cold front near Toronto, but the upper support appears locked in too far north to allow for a significant southward propagation of the associated shortwave.

I would really expect some westward shifts in the guidance today, especially since 97L is not likely to develop anytime soon.


Nice obs and reasoning, Kori.
Quoting 2172. moonlightcowboy:


Nice obs and reasoning, Kori.


You're the one who always says we should rely less on the models. :)
COC coordinates: 14.8n,58.5/59w? What does everyone else see?


And, there looks now to be convection firing south of there, directly over Barbados.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013

...KIKO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 116.3W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013

THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND
A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY
OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED
DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES
SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting 2174. moonlightcowboy:
COC coordinates: 14.8n,58.5/59w? What does everyone else see?


And, there looks now to be convection firing south of there, directly over Barbados.



the plot thickens.......

2178. VR46L
The Main models don't like you , the NHC are not enamored ....
Preforming poorly right now ..yes there is a little blow up of convection ...but looks mostly devoid of thunderstorms and convection ...


2180. barbamz
Good morning with Toraji, southwest of Japan:





It's clear that what happened yesterday was that Gabby inhaled a lot of dry air. You can clearly see the results tonight from the gigantic outflow boundaries that flew out her tail end on the east and southeast side.

I think this eastern blowout, is the largest outflow boundary I've ever seen.

The flip side of that burst of convection is the envelope of moist air has expanded just as fast, so the next burst of convection should be able to sustain itself far better.

Welcome to the Caribbean Gabby. We hope you enjoy your warm vacation.

maybe a new storm to watch to
2183. vis0
CREDIT: NASA (WV & EnhIR, enhanced & blended through most of the animation)
INVEST 97L 201309-01.1045_201309-02;0415U
                                                    re-sizable  800x600 HERE
2185. barbamz




Coast of West Africa and SAL. Have a nice day, folks!
we may not get another actual cv development. considering we had the indicators for an active season just got to sit back and say umm. 96 looked like a sure bet we know what happined to that one
nice tropical wave
Quoting 2182. hurricanes2018:
maybe a new storm to watch to


Most likely a fish but YES fun to watch...

2189. GatorWX
Did someone put TX out in the Atlantic? :)




Not so stretched looking this morning.
2190. VR46L
Quoting 2181. OracleDeAtlantis:
It's clear that what happened yesterday was that Gabby inhaled a lot of dry air. You can clearly see the results tonight from the gigantic outflow boundaries that flew out her tail end on the east and southeast side.

I think this eastern blowout, is the largest outflow boundary I've ever seen.

The flip side of that burst of convection is the envelope of moist air has expanded just as fast, so the next burst of convection should be able to sustain itself far better.

Welcome to the Caribbean Gabby. We hope you enjoy your warm vacation.



Gabby ???? LOL



2191. VR46L
surprised there is no talk of the TW going towards the GulF ....



97 is odd one most of it just sitting east of the leewards. another wierd one in a yr of many odd invest.
2193. GatorWX


2194. GatorWX
Quoting 2191. VR46L:
surprised there is no talk of the TW going towards the GulF ....





...was just going to post that.
The storms this season are annoying ><

"IMA DO DIS...naawww."
2196. IKE
6Z GFS @ 153 hours....


2197. VR46L
Quoting 2194. GatorWX:


...was just going to post that.


LOL !!

was going to post Great minds think alike but remembered the second half of the saying ...
2198. LargoFl
Quoting 2191. VR46L:
surprised there is no talk of the TW going towards the GulF ....



good morning, I think that wave is supposed to go into the BOC the NHC said yesterday..
2199. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Coffee is perking,looks like we're going to need it lol..
2200. VR46L
I see the GFS is more interested in the TW enroute to the Gulf Too....

2201. LargoFl
cmc at 90 hours.......
2202. VR46L
Quoting 2198. LargoFl:
good morning, I think that wave is supposed to go into the BOC the NHC said yesterday..


Exactly ! BOC this year is about the only place any thing is spining up ...Have been watching that wave a couple of days looks better today than yesterday !
If this is the right hand side of my dream of a double landfall this year, then the right side should take a path very similar to this. This is roughly the motion I saw.

Post 2553. OracleDeAtlantis 9:33 AM GMT on July 08, 2013



If above is the correct right side in my forecast dream, then the left side of what will become a double landfall should begin to take shape also, and conditions are looking more favorable at the moment.

Post 39. OracleDeAtlantis 4:02 PM GMT on August 29, 2013


I saw the left side appear below the Yucatan, in the Eastern Caribbean, roughly here ... it then moved northwest across the Yucatan, and hooked left, making landfall close to the Texas-Mexico border.



2204. LargoFl
Quoting 2202. VR46L:


Exactly ! BOC this year is about the only place any thing is spining up ...Have been watching that wave a couple of days looks better today than yesterday !
..yes and hopefully some of its rain will get to texas..
2205. LargoFl
Hazardous Weather Outlook

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-022200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
530 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.


Happy Labor Day!...

2207. GatorWX
Come on! :(



Looks a lot better than last night, wonder what's under that convection.
2208. GatorWX
Quoting 2207. GatorWX:
Come on! :(



Looks a lot better than last night, wonder what's under that convection.


lol, guess I posted the second they updated image.
The EPac continues churning them out:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309021034
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013090206, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992013
EP, 99, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1002W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
2210. VR46L
Quoting 2204. LargoFl:
..yes and hopefully some of its rain will get to texas..


Yes But the Texas drought situation is sure improving, a decent Tropical storm coming in at Corpus Christi /Matagorda Bay areas would really help it out

2211. GatorWX
Quoting 2206. GeoffreyWPB:
Happy Labor Day!...



Same!

And good morning everyone. I always have to divulge a little first.

Hope everyone's off work! I know that's not the case, but regardless, enjoy!
2212. VR46L
Is it the second of November?

2213. Kyon5
I know the main focus of attention is on 97L, but there is a pretty nice wave coming off of Africa on a low latitude.



2214. VR46L
Quoting 2213. Kyon5:
I know the main focus of attention is 97L, but there is a pretty nice wave coming off of Africa on a low latitude.





yeah but its the last decent looking one for a week by the looks of it !
2215. Kyon5

Quoting 2214. VR46L:


yeah but its the last decent looking one for a week by the looks of it !
Yeah, lol. But don't you worry, they'll pop up with thunderstorms soon. They always do that. Let's see what September brings.
2216. LargoFl
Nam for thursday..............
2217. GatorWX


Went two days now with only .1" or less, here's to that staying the same today. It has rained 12 days in a row however. 7-8", last 12. I can only imagine where we stand here in Englewood.

Aside from rain,

75F, 98% RH, 74.5F DP, 0mph Wind, 30% Chance of rain
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.

2219. LargoFl
Laborday in florida is a Big Beach and BBQ day..pay attention folks to the weather this afternoon...................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DELAY THE ONSET OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR...BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
NORTH OF ORLANDO. A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND FROM
THE TREASURE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

A FEW STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60
MPH...MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WHICH WILL BRING A FEW STORMS TO THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING OVER INLAND
LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
THESE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SITTING INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...AS THEY CROSS THE
COAST ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING.
2220. GatorWX


2221. LargoFl
2222. GatorWX
Quoting 2218. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.



I beg to differ.
2223. GatorWX
2224. tkdaime
people on this site like to rush storms to develop 97l is not a small storm the more it moves west the better it will be.
2225. GatorWX
Can it persist, or will the same thing happen? That's the question.
2226. LargoFl
Quoting 2218. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.



Just north of Barbados is the low pressure.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THERE IS CURRENTLY A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. CURRENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
Quoting 2218. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.



Just NNW of Barbados is the low pressure.
Quoting 2222. GatorWX:


I beg to differ.


I beg to differ as well, for once in this wave's lifetime convection is developing over the greatest area of low level vorticity and the mid to low level centers are stacking up among one another. This is a great sign for future tropical development of this low.
2231. GatorWX
Barbados is reporting mostly light east/variable winds, not too telling.

Link
Is the area of convection around 50W a part of 97L? Because it grew convection last night and unlike the main part of 97L that we've been watching it has some convergence going for it. I know some models had been developing a wave behind 97L so maybe that is the area to watch.

2233. GatorWX
Quoting 2228. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THERE IS CURRENTLY A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. CURRENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.


They've had it going at least that fast for 24 hours and it's still in the same spot. lol
Quoting 2226. LargoFl:


SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT
Pretty obvious now that 97L has been NEARLY stationary or moved erratically. Has been the case since yesterday.
2236. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 19N59W TO THE LOW
NEAR 14N59W TO 11N59W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS OBSERVED COUPLED TO
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
CONTINUE WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-
66W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
97 is a bit better organized than yesterday morning. has it moved? not much
By the way

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
OUR WEATHER...IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A BIG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS THIS SYSTEM TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN NEAR PUERTO
RICO
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
STARTING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISING TO AS MUCH AS OVER 2.30 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THETAE VALUES AT 700MB OVER 340K. IN
ADDITION...MODEL SHOWS A WELL DEFINE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN
0-3 KM...WHICH...COULD BRING EVEN MORE MOIST FROM THE DEEP TROPICS
TO THE LOCAL AREA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
...AS
EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW.
97L wasn't ever expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I don't know why so many of you were expecting a TD today or tomorrow. It's when it gets into the western Caribbean it might take off.
2240. IKE

Quoting CybrTeddy:
97L wasn't ever expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I don't know why so many of you were expecting a TD today or tomorrow. It's when it gets into the western Caribbean it might take off.
Not sure it makes it there. Time will tell.
UKMET takes 97L north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and is stronger.
Quoting 2239. CybrTeddy:
97L wasn't ever expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I don't know why so many of you were expecting a TD today or tomorrow. It's when it gets into the western Caribbean it might take off.


It can still develop near the islands, so I don't know why you just think it can't develop until it's past the islands.
Quoting 2242. TheDawnAwakening:


It can still develop near the islands, so I don't know why you just think it can't develop until it's past the islands.


Because it's entering a graveyard and is nowhere close to tropical depression status.
very close to td status
Quoting 2232. MAweatherboy1:
Is the area of convection around 50W a part of 97L? Because it grew convection last night and unlike the main part of 97L that we've been watching it has some convergence going for it. I know some models had been developing a wave behind 97L so maybe that is the area to watch.



That's the wave the other models are hinting at might develop. GFS, CMC, FIM are all showing something.
Quoting 2243. CybrTeddy:


Because it's entering a graveyard and is nowhere close to tropical depression status.


It's close, just needs a confirmed low level circulation.
Quoting 2243. CybrTeddy:


Because it's entering a graveyard and is nowhere close to tropical depression status.


97L is still east of the Lesser Antilles. It has not moved since yesterday morning.
2248. GatorWX
Dwindling...



I think 97L is going to be another long drawn out 'will it, won't it?' yawnfest. There's been a lot of those, the past few seasons. Something's amiss.
2250. GatorWX
2251. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:
Come on! :(



Looks a lot better than last night, wonder what's under that convection.


Barbados.
2252. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT..
.OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Down to 20% in the next 48 hours, holding strong at 50% in 5 days. Clearly the NHC still thinks this has a good chance to develop.
2254. IKE
LOL....they lowered the odds. Watched pot never boils. The incredible season rocks on.....

6-0-0.

NOTE: I thought they might raise the odds to 50% and 60%.
2255. SLU
Quoting 2252. IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT..
.OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Sums up 2013 so far when Stewart has lost all optimism.
2256. GatorWX
Quoting 2251. pottery:


Barbados.


hahahha, funny guy!

Morning Pott
Quoting 2253. CybrTeddy:
Down to 20% in the next 48 hours, holding strong at 50% in 5 days. Clearly the NHC still thinks this has a good chance to develop.


Other than dry air, conditions seem to be favorable. I guess we'll see.
2258. IKE

Quoting SLU:


Sums up 2013 so far when Stewart has lost all optimism.
Good point.
2259. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:


hahahha, funny guy!

Morning Pott

Greetings.
Hazy and still as a tomb here.

I trust that you all have lots of Labour planned today?
That's the idea, isn't it ?
Quoting 2251. pottery:


Barbados.


LOL!
2261. IKE



2262. GatorWX
Quoting 2261. IKE:





97 has reminded me more of a low embedded in the itcz than a tropical wave. Strange how it's basically back-built the last 24 hours.
2263. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Down to 20% in the next 48 hours, holding strong at 50% in 5 days. Clearly the NHC still thinks this has a good chance to develop.


Based entirely on Climate, I guess.
2264. pottery
Quoting IKE:
LOL....they lowered the odds. Watched pot never boils. The incredible season rocks on.....

6-0-0.

NOTE: I thought they might raise the odds to 50% and 60%.


More like a slow dance, to Frank Sinatra music.
Enough to put a man to sleep.....
Happy Labor Day, all! Pouring rain here, although the rain in Maine is plainly on the wane.

I think the photo in this link summarizes somebody's opinion on the hurricane season:

http://weather.aol.com/2013/08/29/cloudspotting-i s-this-cloud-angry-at-the-world/?icid=maing-grid7%7 Cmain5%7Cdl3%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D366756

Have a safe holiday, all.
2266. WoodyFL
All the models have been shifting back to east since yesterday morning. Everytime I posted them there was a blogger who said that would change and move west toward Jamaica and the cayman islands. With the trough there how was that possible.



2267. barbamz

TPW, click to enlarge. Hmm, center of the wave's circulation (97L) looks a bit void of moisture in the last frames.
2268. GatorWX
Quoting 2266. WoodyFL:
All the models have been shifting back to east since yesterday morning. Everytime I posted them there was a blogger who said that would change and move west toward Jamaica and the cayman islands. With the trough there how was that possible.





lol
2269. WoodyFL
2270. WoodyFL
Quoting 2268. GatorWX:


lol



did i say something funny?
2271. ackee
Base on what the NHC is saying the shower at 50W is a part of 97L and looking at the weak state 97L is now I can't see this weak system moving over Hispaniola a more likely track is westward into the western Caribbean that where I think 97L will show its true color
2272. pottery
Quoting WoodyFL:



did i say something funny?

Well, it certainly gave me a chuckle.
Thanks !
Quoting 2270. WoodyFL:



did i say something funny?
This is what I deal with from the local weather forecast station.
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 93F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
Well we may have something to watch. It's been very quite...
boring? i find this yr exciting not knowing what to expect.
Reason for models going toward northward over Hispaniola is because they are strengthening the storm in East Caribbean.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972013 09/02/13 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 64 74 82 88 92 94 93
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 54 64 74 82 88 74 83 82
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 47 59 72 87 101 87 102 104
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 6 5 7 2 4 4 4 1 4 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 2 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 136 114 82 119 113 87 154 37 321 63 306 195 237
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 151 151 153 153 154 154 153 155 158 159
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 142 144 144 147 148 148 148 146 145 147 146
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 63 64 62 66 65 64 63 62 62 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 58 70 72 69 73 67 73 67 63 50 44
200 MB DIV 54 18 16 34 38 33 52 42 29 20 13 35 9
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 3 2 3 4 4 -1 2 -1
LAND (KM) 382 373 377 396 411 394 288 213 144 36 -2 78 22
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.4 61.0 61.8 62.5 64.1 65.9 67.9 69.9 72.0 73.8 75.6 77.0
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 42 46 33 42 40 49 47 35 29 35 12 44 49
2277. GatorWX
Barbados

Yesterday:



Today:

Another sign of the quiet Atlantic season: looking at thunderstorms over Sudan and speculating, "Maybe?"

2013
2279. WoodyFL
Quoting 2272. pottery:

Well, it certainly gave me a chuckle.
Thanks !


I hope i didn't say something wrong. It took me long enough years to post wondiering who's gonna attack me on the blog. I know sometimes you all can get rough. maybe i'll go back to lurking. lol
Quoting 2266. WoodyFL:
All the models have been shifting back to east since yesterday morning. Everytime I posted them there was a blogger who said that would change and move west toward Jamaica and the cayman islands. With the trough there how was that possible.





It will definitely go furrher West now that it isn't developing as fast as it was. The models should be heading bac West on the next few runs.
Quoting 2279. WoodyFL:


I hope i didn't say something wrong. It took me long enough years to post wondiering who's gonna attack me on the blog. I know sometimes you all can get rough. maybe i'll go back to lurking. lol
lol you didn't. I'm confused why the models are showing the track over Hispaniola so they might be onto something. From the current condition I see, though, I see it unlikely but the game changes fast.
Quoting 2278. Neapolitan:
Another sign of the quiet Atlantic season: looking at thunderstorms over Sudan and speculating, "Maybe?"

2013
look like your 7-0-0 wish might come true, Nea :P
2283. barbamz
Don't want this to happen over Fukushima ...



Youtube Info: Tornado hits near Tokyo
02 September 2013

KOSHIGAYA, Japan (AFP) - Several dozen people were injured when a tornado ripped through parts of eastern Japan on Monday, tearing off roofs and uprooting buildings.

Footage on public broadcaster NHK showed a number of homes destroyed, upturned cars, schools with shattered windows and a warehouse that had been lifted from its foundations and hurled into other buildings in Koshigaya, north of Tokyo.

An AFP journalist in the city saw roof tiles scattered all over the streets, with locals outside inspecting their battered homes and emergency vehicles at the scene.

Residents were being prevented from re-entering their houses for fear of collapse.

Some electricity poles had been snapped and a number of them had hit houses as they fell, worsening the damage.

The Koshigaya city hall said 29 people were injured, three of them seriously, in the city alone.

Jiji Press agency said most of the injured were members of a volleyball team at a local middle school.

"We are preparing evacuation shelters, while also readying emergency supplies," said an official of the fire department in Koshigaya.

The electricity supply was cut for some 33,000 households in the region, mainly in Saitama prefecture, probably after lightning strikes, according to utility Tokyo Electric Power which provides power in the area.

"Weather conditions in the region today have been very unstable," said a meteorologist at Japan's weather agency.

"In flatter parts of the region particularly, warm, wet air can come inland and spark tornados. This is especially the case when there is a typhoon developing in the south," he said.
2284. pottery
Quoting WoodyFL:


I hope i didn't say something wrong. It took me long enough years to post wondiering who's gonna attack me on the blog. I know sometimes you all can get rough. maybe i'll go back to lurking. lol

Nah, you didn't say anything wrong.

In fact, one of the people who has been saying that 97 will end up in Cayman may prove to be correct. Again !

:):))
2285. GatorWX
Quoting 2279. WoodyFL:


I hope i didn't say something wrong. It took me long enough years to post wondiering who's gonna attack me on the blog. I know sometimes you all can get rough. maybe i'll go back to lurking. lol


Inside joke I guess, you're good. Most likely you're right with it not going to The Caymans. Looks like Hispaniola right now, maybe Eastern Cuba. I think a lot has to do with the influence from the ull.
Quoting 2279. WoodyFL:


I hope i didn't say something wrong. It took me long enough years to post wondiering who's gonna attack me on the blog. I know sometimes you all can get rough. maybe i'll go back to lurking. lol


Don't go back to lurking, but you do have to have some thick skin in these parts.

if you really want to get bashed, just make a few posts about how GW is political rhetoric and get ready to gst a beat down. LOL
2287. pottery
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


It will definitely go furrher West now that it isn't developing as fast as it was. The models should be heading bac West on the next few runs.

I think so too.

IF it can get moving at all !
2288. WxLogic
Good Morning
2289. pottery
Anyone considering the possibility of the center moving back East a couple hundred miles ?
2290. GatorWX
It could go to The Caymans?



Let's see what else is stirring...

LMAO HWRF. 134kts.
2292. Dakster
I see overnight didn't help out 97L...

2293. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:
It could go to The Caymans?



Let's see what else is stirring...


With the amount of Blobs, Blobbettes and Bloblets out there, Grothar has probably had to go back to bed.......
2294. VR46L
Quoting 2278. Neapolitan:
Another sign of the quiet Atlantic season: looking at thunderstorms over Sudan and speculating, "Maybe?"

2013


Errr I think you are looking at the couple of showers in the extreme SE South Sudan and Ethiopia ..there is one Shower in Sudan :)

Quoting 2286. PanhandleChuck:


Don't go back to lurking, but you do have to have some thick skin in these parts.

if you really want to get bashed, just make a few posts about how GW is political rhetoric and get ready to gst a beat down. LOL


Good one! lol
2296. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
LMAO HWRF. 134kts.

That would be a complete Disaster. Haiti.
2297. pottery
I'm gone.
Stuff and Whatnot to do.

Stay Safe, all.
And enjoy your Holiday.
Quoting 2271. ackee:
Base on what the NHC is saying the shower at 50W is a part of 97L and looking at the weak state 97L is now I can't see this weak system moving over Hispaniola a more likely track is westward into the western Caribbean that where I think 97L will show its true color

2299. WoodyFL
Quoting 2280. PanhandleChuck:


It will definitely go furrher West now that it isn't developing as fast as it was. The models should be heading bac West on the next few runs.


I think with this one, the strength doesn't matter that much because of the trough. All of the models like HWFI, FIM9, AEMI, GFDL all seem to be in the same direction. I think the CMC is the outlier cause it moves it directly north which i don't think is possible right now. because of the way this looks its hard to tell direction

The GFDL shows a slightly less unrealistic 100kts in the Bahamas, which may have been possible in any other season, just not in "the hurricane season that never was" 2013.
2301. GatorWX
Another thing that don't seem to be moving...

Looks like with this development process it's in, there's no choice that the models have to move south and more west. Fyi the hwrf has gone insane!!!! No way that happens in two and half days!! Lol!!
Quoting 2257. CaneHunter031472:


Other than dry air, conditions seem to be favorable. I guess we'll see.
Nice icon...sums up a huge portion of this season. :)
Why is this storm, if you want to call it that, not moving at all?
People shouldn't feel bad. Even the NHC was pretty hyped over 97L yesterday.
But one thing I noticed was a lot of people had no idea where the center was yesterday. They were fooled by all the convection to the north and east of the center. The center was there (could be seen south and east) of where most people thought it was.

This morning 97L has a nice circulation and definitely has a real chance of development if it can stay away from the main islands (Haiti/DR/East Cuba).
Quoting 2299. WoodyFL:


I think with this one, the strength doesn't matter that much because of the trough. All of the models like HWFI, FIM9, AEMI, GFDL all seem to be in the same direction. I think the CMC is the outlier cause it moves it directly north which i don't think is possible right now. because of the way this looks its hard to tell direction



This is why I'm little stubborn about westward direction, but I don't know if the steering is the reason though. The models are also strengthening the storm fast which is almost impossible in East Caribbean, lol. The trough will pick a strong storm, but not a storm this messy :)

12z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013090212, , BEST, 0, 143N, 594W, 25, 1009, LO
2308. JRRP
Would be cool to break the record for latest hurricane,rooting for 97L to be just a ts.
2310. JRRP
2311. ncstorm
Good Morning all..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m

Dry air not the problem anymore with system in Caribbean. We have 3 separate waves fighting with each other, so energy cant bundle.
Quoting 2309. allancalderini:
Would be cool to break the record for latest hurricane,rooting for 97L to be just a ts.


Entirely possible, if not likely. Judging by this seasons track record I'd say it probably will happen.
I see the ULL is still sitting over Haiti. I thought that thing was moving quickly out of the way? It's moving, but seems to be taking its time.
2314. ncstorm
2315. JRRP
I don't believe that record is going to fall. We will get our hurricane in western Caribbean with all that tchp there.
2317. ackee
Looking at 97L right now how do u guys think 97L will track ?

A WEST
B WNW
C NW
D NNW






2318. GatorWX
Quoting 2312. CybrTeddy:


Entirely possible, if not likely. Judging by this seasons track record I'd say it probably will happen.
Just 9 more days :D.Do you want this season to break the record? I am just sad that we are in September and it looks like are we are not getting Cape verde storms this year.
2320. VR46L
Very intense cloud near Belize Associated with TW




Quoting 2311. ncstorm:
Good Morning all..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m

Dry air not the problem anymore with system in Caribbean. We have 3 separate waves fighting with each other, so energy cant bundle.



Will the real 97L please stand up?
2322. ncstorm
06z GFDL Ensembles

Quoting 2317. ackee:
Looking at 97L right now how do u guys think 97L will track ?

A WEST
B WNW
C NW
D NNW










B
Almost stationary.

LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
So are we still predicting impending doom? or can I blog where people are thinking more rational today?.Please let it be the latter..
2326. ncstorm
Quoting 2321. PensacolaDoug:



Will the real 97L please stand up?


LOL..if the blogger chriscances (sic) who has the pic of eminem as his avatar had wrote that, would have been classic..
Please let it be the latter..



Dare to dream!
2309: didn't you say you wanted Gabrielle to be a major? Why different tone now lol
2329. ackee
Quoting 2316. RGVtropicalWx13:
I don't believe that record is going to fall. We will get our hurricane in western Caribbean with all that tchp there.
agree I think 97L will stay weak in the Eastern Caribbean models are too aggressive in strengthen the system in the eastern Caribbean a weak system like this will not be influence by the ULL pressure as even gone up to 1009 now and winds are down to 30 now
2330. ncstorm
00z Euro with 97L and a CV system..last frame

A weaker system and an eastward shift in the model track over night?

We're lucky 97L isn't sitting a little further south (latitude) or we could have been looking at a Charley type track.
Quoting 2327. PensacolaDoug:
Please let it be the latter..



Dare to dream!
Lol.

lol...good morning everyone...

i find it funny that the nhc is just gonna clump the approaching tw from the east in together...no wonder models cant get a hold on this mess. A weak vort with limited convection barely moving being overtaken by a much larger tw with alot more convection at this time...
Quoting 2319. allancalderini:
Just 9 more days :D.Do you want this season to break the record? I am just sad that we are in September and it looks like are we are not getting Cape verde storms this year.
http://
2335. WoodyFL
Quoting 2306. Bluestorm5:


This is why I'm little stubborn about westward direction, but I don't know if the steering is the reason though. The models are also strengthening the storm fast which is almost impossible in East Caribbean, lol. The trough will pick a strong storm, but not a storm this messy :)



I'm right and you're wrong! LOL. Weak tropical systems are usually steered by low level winds and strong systems are normally steered by upper level winds. A common misconception is that if a storm is weak, it will just keep moving west. I think the low level winds on this will move it to a more NW motion.
Quoting 2331. Sfloridacat5:
A weaker system and an eastward shift in the model track over night?

We're lucky 97L isn't sitting a little further south (latitude) or we could have been looking at a Charley type track.



I was thinking the same thing yesterday but it looks like the path has shifted east so maybe NOT a Charley type track after all.

Eric
2337. JRRP
I would have loved to be in Martinique yesterday to see the cloud motion...weak low level swirls all around...probably looked interesting...
Quoting 2325. washingtonian115:
So are we still predicting impending doom? or can I blog where people are thinking more rational today?.Please let it be the latter..
I think we can start with a ban on the models for labor day. Let them stay home and think about what they have done.... :)
Quoting 2325. washingtonian115:
So are we still predicting impending doom? or can I blog where people are thinking more rational today?.Please let it be the latter..


It'll be the opposite of yesterday, irrationally in despair that there won't be a hurricane for another 10 years.
It is amazing people want to satisfy themselves at the death and destruction of others... SAD!!!
This is definitely a positive step in the right direction for 97L compared to yesterday.
Charley started at a very low latitude. That kept it clear of the Islands, and Charley quickly crossed the the Western (flat) part of Cuba.
2344. ncstorm
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 19.8N 68.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2013 19.8N 68.8W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2013 20.7N 71.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2013 21.7N 73.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2013 22.4N 74.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2013 23.2N 76.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2013 24.2N 77.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 020514
Good Morning!
Sunday, 7:46 PM (23:46 GMT)

Last night's sunset in Lantana, Florida.

Sunrise, sunset
Sunrise, sunset

Is this the little girl I carried?
Is this the little boy at play?
I don't remember growing older
When did they?

When did she get to be a beauty?
When did he grow to be so tall?
Wasn't it yesterday
When they were small?

Sunrise, sunset
Sunrise, sunset
Swiftly flow the days
Seedlings turn overnight to sunflowers
Blossoming even as they gaze

Sunrise, sunset
Sunrise, sunset
Swiftly fly the years
One season following another
Laden with happiness and tears

One season following another
Laden with happiness and tears
Sunrise, sunset
Sunrise, sunset


6:39 am (10:39 GMT)

The little white sliver is the moon...

6:49 am


Toadfish!

AKA, 'Chicken of the Sea', there are currently thousands of them around Boynton Inlet according to a local fisherman. The meat is all white, but knowledge of proper cleaning is necessary to avoid poisoning. Not for commercial sale in the US, but I'm told they fetch $18 per pound for export. They are quite delicious.

7:13 am


7:31 am

Quoting 2340. CybrTeddy:


It'll be the opposite of yesterday, irrationally in despair that there won't be a hurricane for another 10 years.
I think it was to early to decide the strength of 97L blowing up into a major.It had multiple voticies and models struggle badly with those kind of storms.
2347. IKE

1h
Long slow drawn out process likely to have storm in Bahamas in several days, but doubt its near what the HWRF has
Joe Bastardi ‏
US hurricane models so far doing poor job. HWRF turns tropical system over Caribbean into cat 4 hurricane in Bahamas

2349. guygee
No hint of expected 97L effects in the long-range forecast section of this mornings MLB-AFD. Emphasis on the ridge axis moving farther north of us as the week progresses.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
427 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
[,,,]
[...]
THU-SUN...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PROVIDES A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR...UP TO 40 PERCENT. EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR THE COAST CONFINED TO THE
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
[...]
&&
.MARINE...
[...]
TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH S/SW WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.
Quoting 2309. allancalderini:
Would be cool to break the record for latest hurricane,rooting for 97L to be just a ts.
I'd personally like us to go the rest of the year without any further named storms whatsoever. Now that would be something to see...

Assuming no storm will be named by midnight, 2013 will be six storms behind 2012 and 1995, and seven storms behind 2011 and 2005, by the end of the day. ACE-wise, the current tally of eight is fewer than half that of the 1983 season, which featured the lowest ACE (17) in the years from 1950 through 2012. However, while that season saw only four storms form, three of those were hurricanes, and one (August's Alicia) went on to become a major. IOW, the odds are increasingly favoring a historically low accumulation of ACE this year (though it should of course be noted that a single large and/or longlasting storm could quickly banish that possibility). (To put things in perspective, 2013's current ACE is just 3.23% of 2005's final tally.)

2013

2013
2351. IKE
Strip-tease taking place east of the islands.....


2352. WoodyFL
Quoting 2291. CybrTeddy:
LMAO HWRF. 134kts.



I believe on that model, 134 knots is not the surface winds. It would be winds at 950mb. To convert to estimated surface winds I usually reduce that amount by 20% and it will give approximate surface level winds. In this case roughly 100 knots. (still laughable at the moment)

2353. guygee
Personally I am rooting for the record, just to stir it up a bit across the spectrum. That's just me obviously. (P.S. Well maybe not just me, but it is my personal preference).
Oye...

2356. ncstorm
I actually saw a season like this coming..I posted this last year..

"2012 is now tied with 011,and 010 xD how ironic.We've been spoiled and when a season like 2009 comes back around I wonder how this blog will react! But I never thought It'll be this year..
2358. SLU
DMIN killed 97L. It now has to start all over again ....

HMMMM strange the models want to make this storm go more east does this look at likely to happpen cuz i dont see that happening.
maybe invest 98L SOON
Quoting 2358. SLU:
DMIN killed 97L. It now has to start all over again ....



DMin is a pest, I hate it. But our system STILL looks very interesting.
Quoting 2358. SLU:
DMIN killed 97L. It now has to start all over again ....



Wave behind is larger and can steel the energy from 97L. Any observations from the islands about wind direction?
Quoting 2354. hurricanes2018:
I'd say that you maybe right, that is fi a disturbance forms right in front of 97L, if not, it ill be anYucatan or Louisiana storm.
Quoting 2291. CybrTeddy:
LMAO HWRF. 134kts.
must be a typo.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 73 degrees and the garden is watered. Possible rain on Tuesday, but not a very good chance so odds are I'll be out there watering.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, eggs and hash brown, Scrambled Eggs With Ricotta and Broccolini, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
2366. ncstorm
6z GFS Ensembles

2367. IKE
I'm rooting for the record too. Also...prove the experts wrong on their pre-season bust cast.
HERE IS very nice spin to this tropical wave and still got t.storms and rain with it and its south to
Quoting 2367. IKE:
I'm rooting for the record too. Also...prove the experts wrong on their pre-season bust cast.
watch this tropical wave
Can the models really do much till we actually have a storm? Not really, but which one will be right?
Quoting 2358. SLU:
DMIN killed 97L. It now has to start all over again ....

Good morning everyone I see the tropical wave is continuing to catch up to 97L and that 97L hasn't moved much from earlier this morning, interesting things at play here, still a large system that may take some time to get its act together.

2372. yoboi
Quoting 2357. washingtonian115:
I actually saw a season like this coming..I posted this last year..

"2012 is now tied with 011,and 010 xD how ironic.We've been spoiled and when a season like 2009 comes back around I wonder how this blog will react! But I never thought It'll be this year..


2 more weeks and things will get going....:)
I couldn't get a decent pic of Dex this morning, so here's one from about a month after we got him. It's one of my favorites.


Dexter's favorite things: Mom, Ball, Nap!

Have a great Labor Day everyone, and don't work too hard - you know Dex won't!
It's like baseball, 97L waiting for that relief pitcher/storm to the east, to make it a better game!
97L goes from looking like a chicken breat to a chicken nugget!.What?
2376. WoodyFL
Quoting 2360. hurricanes2018:
maybe invest 98L SOON




Isn't this the wave the NHC was talking about 5 days ago and mentioned in Docs blog?

Couple of things not there yesterday with 97l.

Convergence


upper vorticity


Still has lower vorticity elongated, with another elongated meeting up with it.



Summary: better today, has work to do yet.
Quoting 2372. yoboi:


2 more weeks and things will get going....:)


Groundhog Day.......
By the way look at the last 2 positions, according to DVORAK estimates.

20130902 1145 14.3 59.4

20130902 0545 14.2 59.5

Link
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
Why is this storm, if you want to call it that, not moving at all?
More tan 24 hore without any movement what so ever...
So it has moved a degree south?
It looks like models are continuing to shift 97L's path north (TVCA now takes it over western PR rather than Hispaniola)...



...Even though they have backed way off on intensity, which usually implies a more westward moving storm:

Is that a good thing or a bad thing for the storm not moving at all?
Who wouldn't be rooting for a record? When it comes down to it, does ANYBODY really want to see a hurricane? If they didn't exist it would be fine for me and millions of others.
Quoting 2351. IKE:
Strip-tease taking place east of the islands.....


If that can become one, this will be one big storm.
2386. WoodyFL
97L

This is from Jason CWG

Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
9:39 AM EDT
it's been an extremely quiet weather pattern this August and now Sept...no hurricanes to track and minimal t'storm activity. Today we've got the storm chance though...
Quoting 2254. IKE:
LOL....they lowered the odds. Watched pot never boils. The incredible season rocks on.....

6-0-0.

NOTE: I thought they might raise the odds to 50% and 60%.


6-0-0 on sept 2 with no development in sight = BUST

Time to start the smoker...got some beef brisket :)
Quoting 2384. fldude99:
Who wouldn't be rooting for a record? When it comes down to it, does ANYBODY really want to see a hurricane? If they didn't exist it would be fine for me and millions of others.
That's cool, but you're not the one pursuing a spot as a hurricane specialist, forecaster, or storm chaser.
Unless 97L gets stronger in a hurry, I don't see how it could go that for north as to what the models are showing, can't be right? imo
Quoting 2388. Autistic2:


6-0-0 on sept 2 with no development in sight = BUST

Time to start the smoker...got some beef brisket :)

???
Quoting 2352. WoodyFL:



I believe on that model, 134 knots is not the surface winds. It would be winds at 950mb. To convert to estimated surface winds I usually reduce that amount by 20% and it will give approximate surface level winds. In this case roughly 100 knots. (still laughable at the moment)


134kts is roughly a 930mb storm at the surface.
Morning...Invest 97L looks like it wants to kick a winning field goal, but if it kicks its getting blocked from the front and tripped by the referee from the back. Might wanna take a long pass thru the Caribbean as the better call!
Quoting 2350. Neapolitan:
I'd personally like us to go the rest of the year without any further named storms whatsoever. Now that would be something to see...

Assuming no storm will be named by midnight, 2013 will be six storms behind 2012 and 1995, and seven storms behind 2011 and 2005, by the end of the day. ACE-wise, the current tally of eight is fewer than half that of the 1983 season, which featured the lowest ACE (17) in the years from 1950 through 2012. However, while that season saw only four storms form, three of those were hurricanes, and one (August's Alicia) went on to become a major. IOW, the odds are increasingly favoring a historically low accumulation of ACE this year (though it should of course be noted that a single large and/or longlasting storm could quickly banish that possibility). (To put things in perspective, 2013's current ACE is just 3.23% of 2005's final tally.)

2013

2013


nice graphs
2393. TampaSpin Manatee Hurricanes Football
Once again the morning bustcasters are out in full force, claiming the season is over. Why not wait until November 30th gang?
Quoting 2352. WoodyFL:



I believe on that model, 134 knots is not the surface winds. It would be winds at 950mb. To convert to estimated surface winds I usually reduce that amount by 20% and it will give approximate surface level winds. In this case roughly 100 knots. (still laughable at the moment)



Actually if the storm were anywhere near 130 kts, 950 mb would be higher than the surface pressure. It'd probably be closer to 930 or even 920.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
watch this tropical wave
Interesting, nice rotation, low latitude,lack of dry air, climatology, everything is there for this one, to be a player, we'll see....
2399. WoodyFL
I posted this earlier and it seems all the models are still moving more towards the nw. I think with this one its not the strength. Many times weak systems are steered by low level winds and strong systems are steered by upper level winds. I know a lot of people think just because a system is weak it will move west.

DMAX is just before sunup? Correct? Or do I have it backwards?
First off Invest 97L is entering an area that never develops. The John Hope theory of if its not developed before reaching the islands then Central Caribbean it will wait.
2402. WoodyFL
Quoting 2397. c150flyer:


Actually if the storm were anywhere near 130 kts, 950 mb would be higher than the surface pressure. It'd probably be closer to 930 or even 920.


I'm not being funny i just don't understand what that means.
Quoting 2389. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's cool, but you're not the one pursuing a spot as a hurricane specialist, forecaster, or storm chaser.


Just curious, but how would a hurricane help you? Yes, I know you are pursuing a spot, but is there a specific opening coming up somehow? Personally, I'd be a very happy person if all hurricanes went out to sea, not affecting anyone anywhere other than shipping lanes.
2404. ackee
I think my numbers for the season will hold through or come close 13 name storm with 3 hurricane my numbers was base on observation I am no expert but this seasons have prove the expert wrong in almost all the predation Dangerous pattern that will cause CV storm track west have not materialize we have yet to see a hurricane none in AUG I think its important to use human observation and trends for each seasons and not only models the only model I think have done well with showing little activity is the EURO just my view on the seasons
Sure starting to look like the real player is the wave behind 97L and that a Bahama run, bypassing the Caribbean for the most part,may be what we get. (If we even get that).
Quoting 2380. HuracanTaino:
More tan 24 hore without any movement what so ever...
There is no bonafide low level center of circulation.
Quoting 2406. unknowncomic:
There is no bonafide low level center of circulation.


And no 850 vort at all
Quoting 2405. TideWaterWeather:
Sure starting to look like the real player is the wave behind 97L and that a Bahama run, bypassing the Caribbean for the most part,may be what we get. (If we even get that).


That is exactly what the GFS is showing I believe....everyone wants to keep bashing the GFS....STILL MY FAVORITE.
2409. pcola57
Good Morning All..
I'm no expert but it appears to me that the wave behind 97L is catching up to it and possibly overtake it..
Thats alot of energy out there right now..
JMO.. :)



2410. ackee
I think my numbers for the season will hold through or come close 13 name storm with 3 hurricane my numbers was base on observation I am no expert but this seasons have prove the expert wrong in almost all the predation Dangerous pattern that will cause CV storm track west have not materialize we have yet to see a hurricane none in AUG I think its important to use human observation and trends for each seasons and not only models the only model I think have done well with showing little activity is the EURO just my view on the seasons
Quoting 2403. aislinnpaps:


Just curious, but how would a hurricane help you? Yes, I know you are pursuing a spot, but is there a specific opening coming up somehow? Personally, I'd be a very happy person if all hurricanes went out to sea, not affecting anyone anywhere other than shipping lanes.
quoted directly from fladude99 "If they didn't exist it would be fine for me and millions of others" So what would happen to all the people who do research into hurricanes and the forecasters at the NHC? His statement was outlandish and then why come on a tropical weather blog to say something like that? The reason we are here is to see what is going on in the tropics. And I wasn't implying on all of them coming to hit me, I just ask for one to see what it is like, go out and get footage for myself, and learn and thing or two about hurricanes, so that I can do a report on it to help me in my research AOC.
2412. ackee
I think my numbers for the season will hold through or come close 13 name storm with 3 hurricane my numbers was base on observation I am no expert but this seasons have prove the expert wrong in almost all the predation Dangerous pattern that will cause CV storm track west have not materialize we have yet to see a hurricane none in AUG I think its important to use human observation and trends for each seasons and not only models the only model I think have done well with showing little activity is the EURO just my view on the seasons
2413. WoodyFL
Quoting 2392. Skyepony:

134kts is roughly a 930mb storm at the surface.


I guessed i understand by lurking you are a scientist of some kind, so I can't argue on this too much. But my understanding post 2291 is that the 134 knots was at a height of 950mb. To estimate the surface winds you'd have to reduce that by some 25%. I didn't realize it but i think that may even by written at the bottom of the image posted. If I am wrong i honestly would appreciate you explaining it.
2414. LargoFl
well the good news might be 97L doesnt hit florida..at least so far..
2415. hydrus
Quoting 2368. hurricanes2018:
HERE IS very nice spin to this tropical wave and still got t.storms and rain with it and its south to
May I have a link to that please.?
Quoting 2409. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
I'm no expert but it appears to me that the wave behind 97L is catching up to it and possibly overtake it..
Thats alot of energy out there right now..
JMO.. :)





Not sure if it will catch it. The wave behind 97L will most likley get pulled to the north.
Quoting 2402. WoodyFL:


I'm not being funny i just don't understand what that means.


A storm with 134kt winds would have a surface pressure of like 920-930mb.. If the model says it would be 134kt at 950mb height than in reality you would assume the winds would be greater at the surface...because the surface pressure is lower than 950mb. Not reduce them.. Like you would if it said 50kts at 950mb.. If it was only 50kts at 950mb the system would be greater than 950mb at the surface..like ~995mb.
2418. LargoFl
12z NAM at 21 hours
Quoting fldude99:
Who wouldn't be rooting for a record? When it comes down to it, does ANYBODY really want to see a hurricane? If they didn't exist it would be fine for me and millions of others.
No, hurricanes are essential for keeping the balance, energy distribution around the glove, plus is one of the most beautiful phenomenal manifestation, meteorologically speaking, of mother nature. Of course, they are dangerous,but humans have fight nature's elements since the beginning of mankind in order to survived, that's part of our specie's success.
2421. LargoFl
2422. ncstorm
12z NAM is running

24 hours
2423. hydrus
Quoting 2409. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
I'm no expert but it appears to me that the wave behind 97L is catching up to it and possibly overtake it..
Thats alot of energy out there right now..
JMO.. :)



It is only my opinion, but the interaction of these waves due to there closer than normal proximity to each other has been a co factor as to why more of them havnt developed.. The new wave exiting Africa may be a different story because it is so far south. If the wave behind it moves into the vicinity of the exiting wave, once again, it may affect either waves development due to the competition for dominance.
I do recall a state that is currently in a drought, that could use a tropical system to help put a dent in that drought. So rather a persistent drought that has already caused millions of dollars in damage or a tropical storm that causes minor damage and helps out in the long run. Take your pick.
2425. LargoFl
perhaps the east coast should keep an eye on this in case the future track is much closer.....
Quoting 2417. Skyepony:


A storm with 134kt winds would have a surfacee pressure of like 920-930mb.. If the model says it would be 134mb at 950mb hieght than in reality you would assume the winds would be greater at the surface...because the surface pressure is lower than 950mb. Not reduce them.. Like you would if it said 50kts at 950mb.. If it was only 50kts at 950mb the system would be greater than 950mb at the surface..like ~995mb.


The modeled surface winds at that point is 107 kts.

AL, 97, 2013090200, 03, HWRF, 060, 176N, 699W, 107

Link
Quoting 2413. WoodyFL:


I guessed i understand by lurking you are a scientist of some kind, so I can't argue on this too much. But my understanding post 2291 is that the 134 knots was at a height of 950mb. To estimate the surface winds you'd have to reduce that by some 25%. I didn't realize it but i think that may even by written at the bottom of the image posted. If I am wrong i honestly would appreciate you explaining it.
You are confusing heights with strength. Two different things alltogether.



Current CONUS Satellite with Lightning...

2430. SLU
Quoting 2361. CaribBoy:


DMin is a pest, I hate it. But our system STILL looks very interesting.


Quoting 2362. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wave behind is larger and can steel the energy from 97L. Any observations from the islands about wind direction?


Based on the observations, the circulation is weaker than yesterday.

Edit: My apologies for the error.
Link

Very interesting article about AFRICAN DUST.

DUST is a real pest (grumpy face)

"Experts say the dust clouds contain trace amounts of metals, microorganisms, bacteria, spores, pesticides and faecal matter"

Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/
2425. LargoFl You believe everything
2433. IKE
""""I tricked you into thinking I was going to blow-up"""""

Walks out the door..............


NEW FLOATER IS UP!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
ITS UP!
2437. LargoFl
Quoting 2432. weatherman994:
2425. LargoFl You believe everything
we'll see around thurs-friday..I hope it dies out myself.
Good morning everybody. I honestly can't believe this system fell apart last night....I kinda expected it to...everyone so far this year has.......also i noticed a big shift North in the models .....I don't see how this can go out to sea....the trough will be leaving and high pressure will be building back in.....thats what Levi said in his update last night
Most models have not been very committed to 97L. The CMC (Canadian global model) was (of course) the only g-based model that had been developing 97L. However, now the HWRF (tropical NAM/WRF model...) is also developing a small TC, taking it to between Fl and the lower Bahamas by 126 hours.

What I find intriguing is that the recent run of the experimental Roundy Probabilities product shows that right around day 5, there is a fairly large region of positive anomaly for development, situated right in that general area.

Also the Madden-Julian Oscillation has been flagging this first two weeks of September as a more favorable arena compared to the suppressive nature of the overall circulation that had dominated much of the summer through August.

Should a TC evolve from 97L:

A shallower system may take a more westerly track through the Caribbean. One note about that; climatologically, systems tend to have a tough time getting their act together in the far eastern Caribbean sea. The reason for that has to do with systems tending to get entangled in the monsoonal exchange between NE South America and the adjacent region of the southwest Atlantic Basin. Downward vertical motion from land-based intense convection tends to compensate/mute the upward vertical motion associated/necessary with/for developing TCs. That can be overcome; the in situ circulation does not at this time appear to be taking on that longer term tendency, so we'll see...

Contrasting, a system that develops in earnest would likely tap the deeper layer steering field, and that would likely mean a more polar-ward position out in time.

2440. VR46L
Quoting 2431. CaribBoy:
Link

Very interesting article about AFRICAN DUST.

DUST is a real pest (grumpy face)

"Experts say the dust clouds contain trace amounts of metals, microorganisms, bacteria, spores, pesticides and faecal matter"

Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/


DUST is a real pest (grumpy face) Where is grumpy Cat today ?

Very interesting Article Thanks!
Extreme Weather in Georgia (the country) on Sunday, 01 September, 2013 at 15:20 (03:20 PM) UTC.
Description
Western Georgia has once again become a victim of the natural disaster on Sunday night.Torrential rain and gale-force winds caused damage to the resort towns and villages - Batumi , Kobuleti, Shekvetili , Senaki. As a result of the wind in Batumi, the electricity supply was stopped, trees were brought down and damaged nine cars. Advisor of the Minister of Corrections and Legal Assistance Lali Moroshkina had to stay in Shekvetili because of the strong winds. She was going to Kobuleti, but the roads were washed out, and the car was damaged. River Paz in Senaki, rose as a result of heavy rain and flooded more than 30 homes. Domestic animals died. Local residents state that, a barrier should be constructed along the river.The old fence was damaged about six weeks ago in the flood. The residents demand a timely restoration of the fence. The central government has transferred funds and will finish the design works in coming days, and begin rebuilding barriers, the local authorities said. It should be noted that western Georgia has been frequently affected by natural disasters in the last month.
Flash Flood in USA on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 02:52 (02:52 AM) UTC.
Description
Power has been restored to almost all of the Boston residents who lost it this afternoon due to weather-related outages, according to NStar. At 1:30 p.m., NStar was working to restore 479 outages in the city, NStar spokesman John Hoey said. By 5 p.m., only 22 outages remained, according to the interactive map on the NStar website. The flood warning issued for Suffolk County and parts of Middlesex and Norfolk counties this morning expired at 2 p.m., but scattered showers are expected to continue through the night, the National Weather Service in Taunton said. The cause of the heavy rain and thunderstorms in the region is a stagnant tropical air mass blanketing Southern New England, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Charlie Foley.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the region into Tuesday, making the remainder of Labor Day weekend wet and muggy, Foley said. Today's storm worked its way from the southeast of the Massachusetts Turnpike to Boston, Foley said. Reports have come in of local flooding and road closures in the region, he said. Trained weather spotters reported several cars throughout the region stuck in flood waters, the weather service said on its website. This morning, the Boston Fire Department went to assist a woman in West Roxbury who was trapped in her car on a flooded road, but she left the vehicle on her own before they arrived, according to Fire Department spokesman Steve MacDonald. "We have been busy," MacDonald said at 1:20 p.m. referring to responding to flood-related incidents, "but not with anything major."

All lanes on Interstate 95 in the area of Route 9 have reopened after being closed this morning, but delays are expected due to some minor flooding in construction zones, according to State Police. There have been no reports of serious storm damage or weather-related car accidents, according to State Police spokesman Reid Bagley. The weather service recommends that residents in urban areas continue to avoid flooded roads and heed road closures. Those living near streams are urged to take higher ground. Cape Cod has also been subjected to a weekend of heavy rain and local flooding, according to Falmouth Sergeant Brian Kinsella. Around 2:30 a.m., there was a brief power outage, but no serious damage, he said.
Flash Flood in USA on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 03:04 (03:04 AM) UTC.
Description
Thunderstorms sparked by a hot, humid late-summer day rocked parts of central North Carolina on Sunday, knocking out power to thousands of customers in Raleigh. Flash flooding was reported in low-lying areas as the evening wore on and rainfall accumulated. Wake County is under a flash flood warning until early Monday morning, with more storms in the forecast. Severe thunderstorm warnings blanketed the Triangle for hours during the early evening Sunday. The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings for parts of Wake, Durham, Orange and Alamance counties where rain fell at a rate of about 4.5 inches per hour. "Man, they have been loud, they have been producing a lot of rain, and these storms have tons of lightning," said WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth.
Flash Flood in Japan on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 08:06 (08:06 AM) UTC.
Description
More than 5,000 people in Japan were told to evacuate Monday due to threats of flooding caused by heavy rain, a media report said. The western prefecture of Hyogo saw rainfall between 80 and 100 mm by noon Monday. About 5,000 people in Taka town were asked to leave their homes, after rising water levels in nearby rivers posed risks, Xinhua cited Japan's public broadcaster NHK as saying. More than 70 houses were inundated in several cities, including Tamba and Nishiwaki. In southwestern Japan, persistent heavy rainfall also forced about 150 people in Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures to evacuate after their homes were inundated.
Tornado in Japan on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 08:39 (08:39 AM) UTC.
Description
Several dozen people were injured when a tornado ripped through parts of eastern Japan on Monday, tearing off roofs and uprooting buildings. Footage aired by public broadcaster NHK showed a number of homes destroyed, schools with shattered windows and a warehouse that had been lifted from its foundations and hurled into other buildings in Koshigaya city, north of Tokyo. At least 27 people were injured in the city alone, local police said, without elaborating on the severity of the injuries. NHK said a few dozen people were taken to hospital, all with minor injuries. "We are preparing evacuation shelters, while also readying emergency supplies," said an official of the fire department in Koshigaya. The electricity supply was cut for some 30,000 households in Saitama prefecture, probably after lightning hit the area, according to utility Tokyo Electric Power which provides power in the area

Here's a YouTube of this one..

Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) Happy Labor Day to all us laborers who could use and enjoy another day off to rest, relax and frolic.


97L. Oh, is that thing, whatever it is, still around? Hhhhmmm, what's different today? Better vorticity at the mid-levels, somewhat better convergence. Some convection firing, but not prolific. Still some dry air pockets too. Lower level circulation apparently still broad and elongated. Nearly stationary with another moisture gyre (much larger, much faster) to the east about to intersect/act with 97L. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised there's not another "L" on the map.



Ok, another system where the mid-level circ has to do the work. That ain't how this normally works. 1008mb of low pressure? Hhmmmm, we'll see how long that remains without getting some lift going from the surface. I've got my doubts. Entering the "dead zone"? Uuummmm, hasn't it been doing that for three days now? ;P The only thing I see that it has got going for it predominantly is its persistence (aka annoyance). ;)

Enjoy the day, all! Don't "labor" over a puter with a system that, well, just ain't a system yet. Get out, stretch your legs, minds and hearts! 97L won't be doing anything really exciting anytime soon.
Quoting 2446. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) Happy Labor Day to all us laborers who could use and enjoy another day off to rest, relax and frolic.


97L. Oh, is that thing, whatever it is, still around? Hhhhmmm, what's different today? Better vorticity at the mid-levels, somewhat better convergence. Some convection firing, but not prolific. Still some dry air pockets too. Lower level circulation apparently still broad and elongated. Nearly stationary with another moisture gyre (much larger, much faster) to the east about to intersect/act with 97L. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised there's not another "L" on the map.



Ok, another system where the mid-level circ has to do the work. That ain't how this normally works. 1008mb of low pressure? Hhmmmm, we'll see how long that remains without getting some lift going from the surface. I've got my doubts. Entering the "dead zone"? Uuummmm, hasn't it been doing that for three days now? ;P The only thing I see that it has got going for it predominantly is its persistence (aka annoyance). ;)

Enjoy the day, all! Don't "labor" over a puter with a system that, well, just ain't a system yet. Get out, stretch your legs, minds and hearts! 97L won't be doing anything really exciting anytime soon.



pouch isnt rolling nearly as much...may represent decreased development chances...we'll see
2448. GatorWX


Sittin', waitin' or what? 97's pretty lacking. Might need that next wave to get a final push. Structurally, I'd say it looks much tighter at the surface, but surface obs don't support a closed low. Idk at this point. Very strange how it hasn't moved.



Again, Happy Labor Day!!! If you're hand are typing words for the blog, you ain't working. Smile!
2449. GatorWX
Quoting 2445. Skyepony:
Tornado in Japan on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 08:39 (08:39 AM) UTC.
Description
Several dozen people were injured when a tornado ripped through parts of eastern Japan on Monday, tearing off roofs and uprooting buildings. Footage aired by public broadcaster NHK showed a number of homes destroyed, schools with shattered windows and a warehouse that had been lifted from its foundations and hurled into other buildings in Koshigaya city, north of Tokyo. At least 27 people were injured in the city alone, local police said, without elaborating on the severity of the injuries. NHK said a few dozen people were taken to hospital, all with minor injuries. "We are preparing evacuation shelters, while also readying emergency supplies," said an official of the fire department in Koshigaya. The electricity supply was cut for some 30,000 households in Saitama prefecture, probably after lightning hit the area, according to utility Tokyo Electric Power which provides power in the area

Here's a YouTube of this one..



Now that's something you don't see everyday! Can't imagine Japan getting too many of those. How's that little geyser near Rome? I tried looking it up yesterday, but all I could find were old articles.
New Dr Jeff Masters Blog up!!!!

I'll try & find something on the Rome geyser in a while.
Quoting 2396. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Once again the morning bustcasters are out in full force, claiming the season is over. Why not wait until November 30th gang?



That wouldn't be "bustcasting", that'd be "hindcasting".
I am not saying this will happen, but... Has there been a year in recorded history where there were no recorded hurricanes (including years before 1960 when we may have missed fish due to lack of satellite)?
Quoting VR46L:


DUST is a real pest (grumpy face) Where is grumpy Cat today ?

Very interesting Article Thanks!
In Puerto Rico it causes lots of health problem, especially "asma", among children and elderly persons; we are directly exposed to the Sahara Dust, all summer long... we call it "bruma".....
2454. vis0
Quoting 1908. Maineweatherguy20023:

Has there ever been a season w/out a hurricane? 1917 doesnt count. that wasnt a season.



shrt re: If one wonders when is the next "wx trend change" via what i state is the science of Galacsics, its the 2 week period for anomalies from September 22/23 2013 thru October 6/7 2013, afterwards the next (~2 months) NATURAL Trend
begins.
See Calendar here


(http://i40.tinypic.com/2j3jjno.jpg)
Calendar keys:
Red lines underlined dates represent Galacsic Ascending
season,
Blue underlined dates represent Descending Galacsic season. The micro dashed lines and micro barbell icon under dates every ~ 2 months are end dates of the past weather trend. The wxtrend end is followed by ~ 2 weeks of  anomalies. (If the next weather trend is similar to the past the anomaly
midpoint less distinctive. Here

(http://i44.tinypic.com/2euiyvo.jpg)
a map ROUGHLY showing  the ml-d AOI & RESP HIGH areas. (the dates can be off by as much 2 days as i might have incorrectly read NASA star  maps by that amount)
In conclusion if the next WxTrend has TS heading anywhere but with a northward component in there forward direction then to see a Hurr its during the anomaly period(s). Controversy would be if a xtra trop. is later called a Hurr.

Please (try) reading my WxU blog here for the looong re.

You're on the old blog Vis.