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Tropical Depression Six Forms in the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2013

The tropical wave that crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche over the weekend has rapidly spun up into Tropical Depression Six, according to surface, satellite, and radar data. Satellite loops show that TD 6 is a small storm, and heavy rainfall will be the main threat. Radar images from Alvarado, Mexico show heavy rain bands from TD 6 are already over land, and the 4 - 8 inches of rain TD 6 will bring to the coast is capable of creating flash flooding and dangerous mud slides. The depression has precious little time to develop before moving inland over Mexico near Veracruz early Monday morning, but with low wind shear, warm waters of 30°C, and the topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico to help it spin up, TD 6 will probably be Tropical Storm Fernand Sunday night. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the depression Sunday evening.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Six as it was organizing, taken at 12:30 pm EDT on August 25, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a more detailed look at the tropics on Monday. It looks like it might be knuckle-gnawing time for residents of the Atlantic's hurricane alley next week, as an active pattern moves into place for the climatological peak two-week period of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. GatorWX
Quoting 975. wxgeek723:


I think intellectuals are naturally more introverted.

Personally, I get really awkward when I only have one other person and I'm left to entertain them myself. I struggle to communicate or find a good topic to discuss/sustain. This even applies to my fellow science buffs. For whatever reason I don't know; it completely sucks. If there's more than one person though I'm able to bounce off the conversation that those two have and make myself an entity.

I also hate large crowds and feel automatically uncomfortable around them, being the center of attention is not my thing.


Absolutely! I don't do well with dates lol. Science buffs i do fine. It's situational for sure.

SA could most certainly throw a rock at it and it's small.

Looking on radar TS Fernand looks to be moving WNW-NW still off shore
Quoting 998. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, it's still showing both systems, just considerably weaker.


Looks more pronounced than the 18z to me.

Quoting 974. GatorWX:


Just doing what I can, 52w


i been watching it now at 50 w no model form it but i see tstm cluster here last a while now
I know I started this discussion and I'm continuing to further it. I apologize for being off-topic.

One more thing I'd like to add is that, it's incredibly hard for an introvert (or even someone not as extroverted as the average person) to mesh harmoniously in society. Some people will mistake your intellectuality and self-reservation as being rude or uninteresting, but if you go a little bit deeper than that, it's almost never the case.

A lot of people are very superficial, though. Very.
About the same...


18z at 123 HR



00z at 117 HR

Quoting 997. TheDawnAwakening:


It's part of a surface low feature I believe from the former 94L invest.

Yes it is

Quoting 998. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, it's still showing both systems, just considerably weaker.


Not surprised

1008. Grothar
Quoting 966. GeoffreyWPB:
Where is Grothar? I need his final thoughts for the evening.


I am devoid of thoughts at the moment. Besides, if there are too many people on the blog, I am at a loss for words. I am very shy about giving my opinion. I won't even mention the two blobs I am seeing in the tropics.
1009. Gearsts
Quoting 992. yankees440:


Again, as far as my knowledge on this, the Intellectual and/or introvert is more attune to his surroundings and able to conceive patterns (connect the dots) thereby increasing anxiety and self consciousness. Just one of the many theories out there though but that's what I see in myself at least


Well I honestly believe that there are extroverted intellectuals, or at least talented introverts, which can be considered a step up from where we are. Whereas the stereotypical intellectual is unable to communicate with crowds, some intellectual people are able to study and replicate the way other people behave in order to fit in - like following pop culture and noting the sense of humor that 'less intelligent' (ambiguous) people have. It's a very handy gift for people my age that I wish I had. It honestly makes me feel like my intelligence is demeaned, I had some abilities to do this when I was younger but for some reason they are fading and I'm having more trouble.

All hypothetical talk too, not trying to boast that I'm "really smart" or something. I hate when cheesy lessons/morals prove true but it is nice to know you're not alone.

Back to Fernand!
1011. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


I am devoid of thoughts at the moment. Besides, if there are too many people on the blog, I am at a loss for words. I am very shy about giving my opinion. I won't even mention the two blobs I am seeing in the tropics.

I understand there are some kind of pills you can take to get over that shyness thing, Gro. :-)
1012. GatorWX
Quoting 1000. Levi32:


Well, the whole "sponge" analogy wasn't meant to imply that dust "soaks up" water - only that it extracts water out of the air without contributing to rain drops. However, as I noted, perhaps as long as the water condensated and latent heat was released, that's all the TC cares about. Does it matter if the rain drops fall? To answer that question we could have to consider downdrafts and evaporative cooling in unsaturated layers.


Perhaps the surface (dust), being darker, furthers evaporation of the liquid back to a gas?
Quoting 1003. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks more pronounced than the 18z to me.

Quoting 1006. Bluestorm5:
About the same...


18z at 123 HR



00z at 117 HR

I was referring to the 12z run. I'm not giving the 18z run much attention.
Quoting 1007. wunderkidcayman:

Yes it is


Not surprised



It was a weak surface low feature and with the development of convection, the convection has actually tightened and intensified the circulation at the surface.
Quoting 1005. KoritheMan:
I know I started this discussion and I'm continuing to further it. I apologize for being off-topic.

One more thing I'd like to add is that, it's incredibly hard for an introvert (or even someone not as extroverted as the average person) to mesh harmoniously in society. Some people will mistake your intellectuality and self-reservation as being rude or uninteresting, but if you go a little bit deeper than that, it's almost never the case.


I learned this all too well when I was younger... luckily, like you, i've become much better in the past few years with meshing in with society (again not the easiest thing to do and takes a lot of energy from me to do it)
1016. Gearsts
lol
Quoting 1006. Bluestorm5:
About the same...


18z at 123 HR



00z at 117 HR


Nope the ridge is larger and extend a bit further W and the trof or cold front it seem a little weaker and is more flatter
Tony Romo is the most dazzling qb in football i love watch romo!
1019. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
lol

jajajaj
Quoting 1016. Gearsts:
lol


What a change to very weak from the 12z run to this one.
Quoting 1013. MiamiHurricanes09:
I was referring to the 12z run. I'm not giving the 18z run much attention.

Still not sure why it's now being forecast to be considerably weaker. Nothing looks different in the model fields.
1022. Gearsts
Nothing
1023. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Looking on radar TS Fernand looks to be moving WNW-NW still off shore

Looks like it just went ashore by what I see. Pressure in 29.74 and rising, wind is 17 mph with 29 mph gusts, and total rain so far is .85". It looks like the "lashing" is about over. :-)
Quoting 1016. Gearsts:
lol

Well duh the hour are off big time one is 129 and the other is 192 get it right man
TS Fernand is paralleling the Mexican coast while still retaining it's eye on radar. I still think it is stronger than 45kts. Should make landfall in the next hour or two.
Quoting 1022. Gearsts:
Nothing


Only a wave that bring showers to the islands.
Quoting 1023. sar2401:

Looks like it just went ashore by what I see. Pressure in 29.74 and rising, wind is 17 mph with 29 mph gusts, and total rain so far is .85". It looks like the "lashing" is about over. :-)

I don't know who you see that
Quoting 1025. wxchaser97:
TS Fernand is paralleling the Mexican coast while still retaining it's eye on radar. I still think it is stronger than 45kts.

Yeah you see it too
1029. Gearsts
Quoting 1024. wunderkidcayman:

Well duh the hour are off big time one is 129 and the other is 192 get it right man
Older run and the gfs was way slower with the system in that location in sep2 vs august31.
1030. sar2401
Quoting Gearsts:
lol

If you want, I can print out a bunch of copies of the various GFS runs, roll them up, and then give each of you a lashing. It would have to be less painful than looking at that thing hour after hour. :-)
For first storm, 12z is much stronger than 18z or 00z. 18z and 00z is same so far for first storm, little faster, and little farther west.
I imagine NHC will lower the % at 2 AM for the five days from the 30% based on this run.
1033. Levi32
Quoting 1012. GatorWX:


Perhaps the surface (dust), being darker, furthers evaporation of the liquid back to a gas?


In cloud-free (unsaturated) air then we would be back to a simple water vapor equilibrium.

I realize now I suggested something pretty dumb earlier. Dust particles can not collect water molecules unless they convert to the liquid phase, since attaching to the dust particle requires the water molecule to change energy states. In other words, water molecules can only become attached to dust particles through condensation.

In that light, I don't think dust in unsaturated air means anything at all except that the air is dry, which it would have been anyway. It's dust being ingested into a saturated layer that may cause things to happen. I'm still unsure what the net effect of "trapping" condensated water in the atmosphere would be.
Quoting 1032. Tropicsweatherpr:
I imagine NHC will lower the % at 2 AM for the five days from the 30% based on this run.
I wouldn't. Stay at 30%.
Quoting 1010. wxgeek723:


Well I honestly believe that there are extroverted intellectuals, or at least talented introverts, which can be considered a step up from where we are. Whereas the stereotypical intellectual is unable to communicate with crowds, some intellectual people are able to study and replicate the way other people behave in order to fit in - like following pop culture and noting the sense of humor that 'less intelligent' (ambiguous) people have. It's a very handy gift for people my age that I wish I had. It honestly makes me feel like my intelligence is demeaned, I had some abilities to do this when I was younger but for some reason they are fading and I'm having more trouble.

All hypothetical talk too, not trying to boast that I'm "really smart" or something. I hate when cheesy lessons/morals prove true but it is nice to know you're not alone.

Back to Fernand!


As you stated though, "extraverted intellectuals" is a key word... Extraverts get energy from being around others. So it would make sense for them to have an easier time performing around them, whereas introverts (especially intellectuals), if not surrounded by like minds, gain more energy by being alone and as opposed to around others.
1036. Gearsts
Next pic is actually weaker so im not going post it, getting bored watching the gfs do this lol.
Quoting 1011. sar2401:

I understand there are some kind of pills you can take to get over that shyness thing, Gro. :-)


That does certainly help!
Quoting 1025. wxchaser97:
TS Fernand is paralleling the Mexican coast while still retaining it's eye on radar. I still think it is stronger than 45kts. Should make landfall in the next hours or two.
Very impressive. Should be making landfall shortly. Looks in the 50-60kt range based on radar imagery.
Quoting 1034. Bluestorm5:
I wouldn't. Stay at 30%.


You think despite the no development by GFS they will mantain at 30%?
Quoting 1025. wxchaser97:
TS Fernand is paralleling the Mexican coast while still retaining it's eye on radar. I still think it is stronger than 45kts. Should make landfall in the next hours or two.
Given the relatively weak steering, and looking at the topography, it appears as if the mountain chain near the coast is acting like a wing. We often see this as storms pass by Hispaniola.

The winds are moving much faster below the wing, than over the top of the mountain, so perhaps it's moving towards the lower pressure, that it and the topography are creating.
Quoting 1039. Tropicsweatherpr:


You think despite the no development by GFS they will mantain at 30%?
Same thing happened 18z and it develops the storm eventually.

EDIT: Not promising though... I'll give it another chance with 12z. If that run repeat again, I would lower it to 20%.
Major hurricane this afternoon to just a bunch of clouds 12 hours later. Just the beauty of the GFS. It does continue to develop the EATL feature though.

Quoting 1008. Grothar:


I am devoid of thoughts at the moment. Besides, if there are too many people on the blog, I am at a loss for words. I am very shy about giving my opinion. I won't even mention the two blobs I am seeing in the tropics.


What are your early thoughts on 50W?
Look like 00z killed the first storm. No reason for NHC to downgrade to 20% though. I would wait for another run or two.
Experimental 30 kilometer FIM-ZEUS at 850 millibar winds in knots.

1046. GatorWX
Quoting 1033. Levi32:


In cloud-free (unsaturated) air then we would be back to a simple water vapor equilibrium.

I realize now I suggested something pretty dumb earlier. Dust particles can not collect water molecules unless they convert to the liquid phase, since attaching to the dust particle requires the water molecule to change energy states. In other words, water molecules can only become attached to dust particles through condensation.

In that light, I don't think dust in unsaturated air means anything at all except that the air is dry, which it would have been anyway. It's dust being ingested into a saturated layer that may cause things to happen. I'm still unsure what the net effect of "trapping" condensated water in the atmosphere would be.


But the the discussion is concerning the development of a tropical system, which would enhance evaporation from the ocean, thus more WV, more condensation.
Quoting 1025. wxchaser97:
TS Fernand is paralleling the Mexican coast while still retaining it's eye on radar. I still think it is stronger than 45kts. Should make landfall in the next hour or two.


Question is, "how long can it sustain this forward motion paralleling the coast?"
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17
12:00 PM JST August 26 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 15.8N 126.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 19.1N 124.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
1049. GatorWX
Quoting 1046. GatorWX:


But the the discussion is concerning the development of a tropical system, which would enhance evaporation from the ocean, thus more WV, more condensation.


Oy, blew that one (the next sentence)
It appears to me that the current run of the gfs is almost copying the 18z.
1051. GatorWX
Levi,

Getting tired, you're still in AK? Let's continue this another time. Good discussion, email me if you'd like, I know you're a busy guy. Good talk though.

Good night all! Toasting my last sip of wine to a good, dry, sunny beach day tomorrow. Adios
The lack of model consistency this year is really getting on my nerves. Why does the GFS go from showing a major hurricane to an open wave between one run in the medium range?
1055. Levi32
Quoting 1051. GatorWX:
Levi,

Getting tired, you're still in AK? Let's continue this another time. Good discussion, email me if you'd like, I know you're a busy guy. Good talk though.

Good night all! Toasting my last sip of wine to a good, dry, sunny beach day tomorrow. Adios


Always fun pondering questions for which there are no clear answers yet. Thanks for the discussion.
192 hours.

Fernand making landfall.

1058. Levi32
Quoting 1054. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The lack of model consistency this year is really getting on my nerves. Why does the GFS go from showing a major hurricane to an open wave between one run in the medium range?


Perhaps there is less certainty for development than it seemed earlier. It will be interesting to see how the 0z ECMWF compares to previous runs.
NHC could easily call it 50kts at landfall.

1060. pcola57
Take a look for yourself..Click HERE

Convective Precip water/Cape



850 mb Temp




Jet Stream/200mb Isotachs



??? The dominant center seems to have moved well South?
1062. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I don't know who you see that

You don't know "who" I see that? The weather conditions in Veracruz indicate it and the satellite of the BOC pretty clearly shows it.
Quoting 1058. Levi32:


Perhaps there is less certainty for development than it seemed earlier. It will be interesting to see how the 0z ECMWF compares to previous runs.

Yeah, but why is that? I don't see anything substantially different between the 12z and 00z that would suggest such a dramatic change in intensity.
Quoting 1047. yankees440:


Question is, "how long can it sustain this forward motion paralleling the coast?"


As long as the NE quad pushes the coc away from land as it's intensifying as it creeps along?
Quoting 1056. MiamiHurricanes09:
192 hours.


It appears to be stronger ridge further W and weaker trof

Quoting 1057. Civicane49:
Fernand making landfall.



The last time someone said that it start to move N so wait not yet watch and wait for it

It kinda looks to be coming onto shore but it could just be a wobble it could be that the "eye" is getting bigger(which it appear to be doing) so wait a bit before doing so
Quoting 1054. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The lack of model consistency this year is really getting on my nerves. Why does the GFS go from showing a major hurricane to an open wave between one run in the medium range?
It's being ran on a supercomputer too, but it could be worst and be the CMC model which spins up every low in sight and bombs them out. My roomate was telling me how one year the ZEUS supercomputer at ERAU crashed after being overloaded. The GFS will eventually work out its flaws I think we need to give it some time, it's the best we have right now and a lot of work and effort has been made to improve it.
Quoting 1054. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The lack of model consistency this year is really getting on my nerves. Why does the GFS go from showing a major hurricane to an open wave between one run in the medium range?


Cause you don't look at models that far out. You look for anything developing within the next 72hrs.. Out to 120hrs if models agree. Look at the TS in the GOM ....wasn't really much forecasted 2 days ago.

Models will change from run to run. There is no pattern unless the GFS and EURO both agree.

There will be something approaching the carribean in 5 days or so but it's too early to guess if it's just a tropical wave or a TS.

So for now.. just look at up to 3-5 days.
1068. Levi32
Quoting 1063. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but why is that? I don't see anything substantially different between the 12z and 00z that would suggest such a dramatic change in intensity.


Low-level flow structure is a big deal for tropical waves. We've already seen several waves during the last few weeks that had pretty favorable conditions, but got too stretched or became too low-amplitude to create positive feedback and cause pressures to lower. Favorable conditions for TC development do not guarantee the development of just any disturbance or tropical wave. Its structure has to facilitate closing off a circulation in the first place.

This is exactly why we can't really take a tropical wave coming off of Africa and say "it's gonna develop" or "it's not going to develop." That's why we need models to help out.
MIMIC looks like Fernand is making landfall.
Quoting 1063. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but why is that? I don't see anything substantially different between the 12z and 00z that would suggest such a dramatic change in intensity.


Speculating here but maybe the model doesn't see the MJO moving fast thru the Atlantic Basin.
1071. JRRP

Long range
Fernand is getting as close as possible to land without making landfall, as radar shows. In the last few hours it has turned almost completely parallel to the coast, but it should soon make its true landfall near Zempoala - unless it tries to postpone it for a short time with another tiny turn to the North.
Tropical low nearing 52.5w and 11.5 n is developing good convective structure with an inflow band wrapping into the southern semicircle, of the developing circulation.






The Canadian believes our wave will still try to do something.


OK this is weird. Does Fernand have a tail-gater?
Quoting 1074. TheDawnAwakening:
Tropical low nearing 52.5w and 11.5 n is developing good convective structure with an inflow band wrapping into the southern semicircle, of the developing circulation.


May be one to watch; it has plenty of time to organize since it got this burst started all the way back at DMIN.
We're in for an active September.





Quoting 983. MiamiHurricanes09:
LOLLL. Looks like the GFS is dropping both features in the nearer term. Ouch. 96 hours.

That is good the majority of times when it shows a system and then drop it and show it again just like 5 days before formation it might mean that a system is going to develop it always do that I will be worry if it doesn`t and good night everyone.
Cloudsat of 95E



Quoting 1067. scottsvb:


Look at the TS in the GOM ....wasn't really much forecasted 2 days ago.



I forecast this storm last Sunday though I said TX instead of MX at the time.
Cloudsat of landblob on West Africa.

Tropical Storm Fernand has made landfall.

Quoting 1067. scottsvb:


Cause you don't look at models that far out. You look for anything developing within the next 72hrs.. Out to 120hrs if models agree. Look at the TS in the GOM ....wasn't really much forecasted 2 days ago.

Models will change from run to run. There is no pattern unless the GFS and EURO both agree.

There will be something approaching the carribean in 5 days or so but it's too early to guess if it's just a tropical wave or a TS.

So for now.. just look at up to 3-5 days.
I'm learning something here, never trust models that far out, not even the pattern can be trusted. I guess you can make overall assumptions and speculations as to what is going to happen, but don't put all your cards in that one single run. Also being that we are nearing the peak the pattern should becoming more clear to us. There is still persistent troughing hanging out on the East Coast and the A-B High is strongest towards the Azores and weaker towards Bermuda. Now when we actually do get a storm the key will be strength of both storm and trough and orientation of the trough. V-shaped trough likely kicks a storm OTS before reaching the East Coast of the US a flat trough more horizontal in nature would likely steer a storm more towards the East Coast US because it doesn't have that strength nor energy in recurving said storm. This is just my take.
Quoting 1080. Skyepony:
Cloudsat of 95E





I forecast this storm last Sunday though I said TX instead of MX at the time.
Also give credit to the NAVGEM for sniffing this one out. Who says there is not other reliable models out there besides the GFS and Euro. Remember the CMC also sniffed out Andrea and FIM sniffed out 92L.

Anyways have a goodnight everyone.
1085. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

It appears to be stronger ridge further W and weaker trof



The last time someone said that it start to move N so wait not yet watch and wait for it

It kinda looks to be coming onto shore but it could just be a wobble it could be that the "eye" is getting bigger(which it appear to be doing) so wait a bit before doing so

WKC, the radar, satellite, and weather observations all show the center is ashore. There are a few nocturnal blobs that come off the Yucatan to the east of Fernand but they have nothing to do with the storm. Even the NHC expected it be inland west of the Veracruz metro area by 0600 and it's now 0507. I don't understand why you are resisting the idea it made landfall.
Quoting 1078. GTstormChaserCaleb:
We're in for an active September.






thanks captain obvious!
A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
1089. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm learning something here, never trust models that far out, not even the pattern can be trusted. I guess you can make overall assumptions and speculations as to what is going to happen, but don't put all your cards in that one single run. Also being that we are nearing the peak the pattern should becoming more clear to us. There is still persistent troughing hanging out on the East Coast and the A-B High is strongest towards the Azores and weaker towards Bermuda. Now when we actually do get a storm the key will be strength of both storm and trough and orientation of the trough. V-shaped trough likely kicks a storm OTS before reaching the East Coast of the US a flat trough more horizontal in nature would likely steer a storm more towards the East Coast US because it doesn't have that strength nor energy in recurving said storm. This is just my take.

Until there's some physical change - lower pressures, developing circulation, an increase in wind spreed -who really cares, or why does it matter what a model says? The fun part of tracking tropical storms is tracking tropical storms...not "L"'s on a graphic that don't exist. With the exception of making it a horse race, choosing your horse, and then being able to claim victory if your horse makes it over the line first, there is absolutely no value to we civilians in tracking the literally hundreds of ghost storms that have already showed up this season. Until there's at least an AOI, I never even look at a model. Until a model has actual physical changes to latch on to, it's a gigantic guessing game, and it's just not worth the grief to me. To those that enjoy it, more power to them, but the constant whining about unreliable models once again being unreliable gets a little tiresome.
Ok radar has clearly shown Fernand has made landfall
LOL, some light heart funny I saw. Just had to share it.




And Fernand moves ashore.


1092. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat of 95E





I forecast this storm last Sunday though I said TX instead of MX at the time.

With all due respect, this is like me forecasting a snowstorm in Alabama, having it actually snow in Tennessee, and then me claiming victory for my forecast.
Lowest pressure at Veracruz 1001.2 mb

Quoting 1008. Grothar:


I am devoid of thoughts at the moment. Besides, if there are too many people on the blog, I am at a loss for words. I am very shy about giving my opinion. I won't even mention the two blobs I am seeing in the tropics.


Hi. I'm new. Ta da.

Where is the other blob?
1095. sar2401
Two questions for the tropical weather historians here.

1. What is the shortest time from being declared a TS to landfall?

2. What is the shortest time from being declared a tropical storm until becoming a remnant low?

Seems like a short time for Fernand, but I'm guessing it's not a record.
1096. sar2401
Quoting ChemPhysMath:


Hi. I'm new. Ta da.

Where is the other blob?

Grothar only reveals blobs on his own scheduled updates, which is when he feels like it. :-)
La Mancha Beach in Mexico is reporting 41 MPH sustained winds.

000
WTNT61 KNHC 260526
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MADE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ AT 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 50
MPH...85 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
1100. SLU
000
WTNT61 KNHC 260526
TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND MADE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ AT 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 50
MPH...85 KM/H.

SUMMARY OF 1145 PM CDT...0445 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 96.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TIRED WITH THE GFS AND THE GHOST STORMS
...now back to sleep lol...
There is a parade of healthy looking waves coming off of Africa.
Now that Fernand has moved inland, weakening is expected, and the storm should dissipate over the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico by 48 hours, if not sooner. Heavy rainfall is the primary threat as it could result dangerous flash floods.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT EXTEND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND...LOCATED VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF
VERACRUZ.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
1107. sar2401
Quoting BrandenCordeiro:
La Mancha Beach in Mexico is reporting 41 MPH sustained winds.

Are you getting this off IKiteSurf.com? I've actually been to La Mancha. The observations are only updated once an hour and, when I was there, they were using an Oregon Scientific weather station with the anemometer about 40 feet from the beach, mounted on maybe a three foot mast on top of maybe a 10 foot building. The average and gust is over the last hour, so the 12:00 am posting was for winds from 11:00 pm until midnight. That's somewhere between one and two hours ago now. I wouldn't put any faith that the reading represents current conditions. It should update in a few minutes (assuming it's working), so we should see a drop in wind speed then, although I'm sure it's still breezy.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
100 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...FERNAND BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 96.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Hey sorry if this has been asked before but I've noticed this a lot over the years, that storms tend to form very quickly in the Bay of Campeche for some reason and is there any particular reason why?

Eric
Poor ol' Billy Ray. He has to be embarrassed.

Quoting 1109. EricfromJax:
Hey sorry if this has been asked before but I've noticed this a lot over the years, that storms tend to form very quickly in the Bay of Campeche for some reason and is there any particular reason why?

Eric

I think it has something to do with the shape of the bay helping the wind to spin
Quoting 1109. EricfromJax:
Hey sorry if this has been asked before but I've noticed this a lot over the years, that storms tend to form very quickly in the Bay of Campeche for some reason and is there any particular reason why?

Eric


Funneling effect off the mountains, helping to boost low-level vorticity.
1113. sar2401
Quoting EricfromJax:
Hey sorry if this has been asked before but I've noticed this a lot over the years, that storms tend to form very quickly in the Bay of Campeche for some reason and is there any particular reason why?

Eric

Basically, it's topography. The BOC is a nice bowl, large, and relatively shallow. It's backed up by some very tall mountains to the west. This topography helps lows start to spin more quickly than in open seas, but it's also a trap. Weak storms like Fernand have to get stronger, with better organized circulation, to escape the confines of the Bay. If they dont. they tend to stay close to shore, and the generally westerly winds in the bay tend to steer them toward land. We've seen this three times this year -Invest 92, Barry, and now Fernand. It's always an area that bears watching, but the vast majority of storms that either form in or cross the Yucatan into the BOC, die there. Because we've had a few big ones spin up in the BOC and become strong hurricanes, some folks get all excited about BOC storms, but most of them turn out just like Fernand.
Quoting 1107. sar2401:

Are you getting this off IKiteSurf.com? I've actually been to La Mancha. The observations are only updated once an hour and, when I was there, they were using an Oregon Scientific weather station with the anemometer about 40 feet from the beach, mounted on maybe a three foot mast on top of maybe a 10 foot building. The average and gust is over the last hour, so the 12:00 am posting was for winds from 11:00 pm until midnight. That's somewhere between one and two hours ago now. I wouldn't put any faith that the reading represents current conditions. It should update in a few minutes (assuming it's working), so we should see a drop in wind speed then, although I'm sure it's still breezy.


I got the observation off of the Wundermap.
1116. JRRP
Euro is showing an open wave east of carib...
well...
AL, 06, 2013082606, , BEST, 0, 196N, 965W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 10, 30, 1013, 100, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FERNAND, M,
EP, 95, 2013082606, , BEST, 0, 146N, 977W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Lots of flash flooding in the desert today in Soo Cal. I on the other hand received only 1 15 minute shower. Rained hard for 15 minutes. Monday more widespread Thunderstorms are forecast for the entire county.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
841 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM FLASH FLOOD RANCHO MIRAGE 33.76N 116.43W
08/25/2013 RIVERSIDE CA BROADCAST MEDIA

MOVIE THEATER IN RANCHO MIRAGE FLOODED AND EVACUATED.

0317 PM FLASH FLOOD RANCHO MIRAGE 33.76N 116.43W
08/25/2013 RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGHWAY 111 AT INDIAN TRAIL DRIVE HAS 1 FOOT OF WATER IN
THE ROADWAY AT THE GUTTERS.

0327 PM HEAVY RAIN RANCHO MIRAGE 33.76N 116.43W
08/25/2013 M1.24 INCH RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.24 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 35 MINUTES NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 111 AND INDIAN TRAIL.

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN INDIO 33.72N 116.23W
08/25/2013 M1.70 INCH RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.7 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 200 PM AND 330 PM.

0341 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SW PALM DESERT 33.70N 116.41W
08/25/2013 RIVERSIDE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTION OF PAISANO ROAD AND CHOLLA WAY WASHED OUT
WITH FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING.

0415 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W BORREGO SPRINGS 33.24N 116.41W
08/25/2013 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED OVER HIGHWAY S-22 BETWEEN
BORREGO SPRINGS AND RANCHITA. NUMEROUS LARGE BOULDERS
BLOCKED THE ROADWAY WITH OTHER DEBRIS AND RUNNING WATER
IN THE ROADWAY.

0425 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S RANCHITA 33.14N 116.52W
08/25/2013 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

18 INCHES OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY S-2 AT VALLECITOS CREEK.

0425 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SE AGUA CALIENTE SPRI 32.90N 116.24W
08/25/2013 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

18 INCHES OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY S-2 NEAR CANEBRAKE.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD INDIO 33.72N 116.23W
08/25/2013 RIVERSIDE CA BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD FLOODING REPORTED IN INDIO. SEVERAL ROADS
CLOSED WITH NUMEROUS MOTORISTS STRANDED.

0500 PM FLOOD BORREGO SPRINGS 33.24N 116.35W
08/25/2013 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MOBILE HOMES FLOODED IN THE DEANZA MOBILE HOME PARK.

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD BORREGO SPRINGS 33.24N 116.35W
08/25/2013 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FAST FLOWING WATER ON YUKIE ROAD IN BORREGO SPRINGS. LOW
WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED.

0545 PM HEAVY RAIN 11 NNE RANCHITA 33.35N 116.41W
08/25/2013 M3.36 INCH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

3.36 INCHES OF RAIN FELL TODAY...INCLUDING 3.35 INCHES IN
TWO HOURS.

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NW DESERT HOT SPRINGS 34.01N 116.57W
08/25/2013 RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER...DEBRIS AND BOULDERS FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY 62
JUST NORTH OF N INDIAN CANYON DRIVE. AREA FLOWING ACROSS
HIGHWAY IS 40 FEET WIDE...AND 6 FEET DEEP.

0722 PM HEAVY RAIN E AGUA CALIENTE SPRINGS 32.95N 116.30W
08/25/2013 M2.05 INCH SAN DIEGO CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

2.05 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN 30 MINUTES
evening bloggers just got off hows my ferd doing in da BOC
looks to me he has made landfall
Quoting 1084. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Also give credit to the NAVGEM for sniffing this one out. Who says there is not other reliable models out there besides the GFS and Euro. Remember the CMC also sniffed out Andrea and FIM sniffed out 92L.

Anyways have a goodnight everyone.


What is it that someone said a few blogs back? Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
Quoting 1106. hurricanes2018:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND...LOCATED VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF
VERACRUZ.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
yep without no circle on nhc site lol
Quoting 1105. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT EXTEND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG
anybody wanna guess where dat MJO is hmmmmm sounds like east pac to me
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KONG-REY (T1315)
15:00 PM JST August 26 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kong-rey (1000 hPa) located at 16.0N 125.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 19.0N 124.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.1N 123.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.2N 122.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa


Kong-rey's official RSMC track
1128. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
looks to me he has made landfall

Yes, it did, at 1245 EDT, as a 50 mph, garden variety storm. I asked earlier what the shortest lived TS was, from classification to landfall, and haven't received an answer I've seen. I think Fernand must be in the top five at least, since it lasted about 6.5 hours. I hope, although I don't expect, that people will remember the three dogs we've had this year in the BOC. Unless they enter the BOC as a developed storm or develop quickly into a strong storm while in the BOC, they are going to keel over. The vast majority of BOC storms never did, and never will have the chance to be a hurricane.
1129. sar2401
Quoting BrandenCordeiro:


I got the observation off of the Wundermap.

They must have gotten it off IKite then, since that's the only station in the area.
1130. sar2401
Anyway, it's off to bed for me, after spending the last hour looking for deals on Temptation cat treats. We have three cats, and that stuff is apparently made of part gold. Another day of following a storm with no place to go that went to no place. Of course, a big one will come and, given the stormgasms from a 50 mph tropical storm, I'm sure we'll bring down every server in the western world. Have good night, all.
Quoting 1128. sar2401:

Yes, it did, at 1245 EDT, as a 50 mph, garden variety storm. I asked earlier what the shortest lived TS was, from classification to landfall, and haven't received an answer I've seen. I think Fernand must be in the top five at least, since it lasted about 6.5 hours. I hope, although I don't expect, that people will remember the three dogs we've had this year in the BOC. Unless they enter the BOC as a developed storm or develop quickly into a strong storm while in the BOC, they are going to keel over. The vast majority of BOC storms never did, and never will have the chance to be a hurricane.
barry probably would be up with fern too sar
Fernand is beginning to weaken.

Quoting 1128. sar2401:

Yes, it did, at 1245 EDT, as a 50 mph, garden variety storm. I asked earlier what the shortest lived TS was, from classification to landfall, and haven't received an answer I've seen. I think Fernand must be in the top five at least, since it lasted about 6.5 hours. I hope, although I don't expect, that people will remember the three dogs we've had this year in the BOC. Unless they enter the BOC as a developed storm or develop quickly into a strong storm while in the BOC, they are going to keel over. The vast majority of BOC storms never did, and never will have the chance to be a hurricane.

Microwave pass earlier.

1135. GatorWX
Well that's no good.



52w growing as well.



Stay safe MX!!

Back to bed. I swear the littlest things wake me up.
Quoting 1135. GatorWX:
Well that's no good.



52w growing as well.



Stay safe MX!!

Back to bed. I swear the littlest things wake me up.
whooa! that blob looks good gator did any of the models pick this up? MJO mite be making way kinda quick im thinking gator
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...FERNAND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 96.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 96.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 96.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 96.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING
INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


wouldn't mind it being just like yesterday which was cloudy, temps in the mid to uppers 80's and slow moving showers for most of the AM.

Broward county elementary schools lunch menus today:
Mexican Pizza
BBQ Pulled Pork/Wheat Bun
Garden Fresh Entrée Salads
Steamed Spinach
Fresh Baby Carrots
Cupped Strawberries
Fresh Fruit

Happy beginning to the school and work week everyone :-)
24 hour eTRaP rainfall forecast:

Quoting 1146. Civicane49:
that blob looking good! check out the dry air in da atl its starting to shrink somewhat. im convinced that the MJO has start to make its way across the ATL
Quoting 1147. bigwes6844:
that blob looking good! check out the dry air in da atl its starting to shrink somewhat. im convinced that the MJO has start to make its way across the ATL

Quoting 1145. Civicane49:
civ do u see what im seeing?
Seems like the little tropical blob on the coast of texas fizzled, I am north of I-10 in Houston, and didnt get a drop of rain. Very disappointed. My lawn needed a good soaker! 
1151. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked...
1152. LargoFl
Interesting feature tooling along around 52w 11n this morning. Could we get a blobcon rating this morning on it?
1154. LargoFl
1155. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG
WINDS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

1156. GatorWX
Morning everyone!! Will it dry out a little today? :p Don't feel too bad right now. We'll see. 4.5+" last 72 hours.

Wes,

There was no model support I know of. It's convection is warming right at DMAX, so it may have a rough day ahead.

1157. GatorWX
Quoting 1155. LargoFl:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG
WINDS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.



and there's your sign. Morning Largo.
1158. GatorWX
Quoting 1156. GatorWX:
Morning everyone!! Will it dry out a little today? :p Don't feel too bad right now. We'll see. 4.5+" last 72 hours.

Wes,

There was no model support I know of. It's convection is warming right at DMAX, so it may have a rough day ahead.


Gator do u see that the dry air is starting to go away somewhat and begining to start to moist look at the last frames of it
1160. GatorWX
The more I look at it (52w), the more I want to say it's acquiring surface characteristics. Waiting for that telling first vis shot. Maybe it'll show, probably not, small, making it harder to distinguish. As mentioned most of yesterday evening (kudos to kman for starting the discussion), it's low and most certainly one to watch. Westward bound!

1161. GatorWX
Quoting 1159. bigwes6844:

Gator do u see that the dry air is starting to go away somewhat and begining to start to moist look at the last frames of it


Doesn't look like it's moving at all imo. It's still pretty dry out there. MJO, I think is still in the wcarib and GOM. Look how Fernand did and the amount of moisture in that region. It's progressing, but takes time. It's getting there. Being dry out there should help waves stay weak and allow more progression towards the west with less northward bias. I bet opinions on this season will change in a week to week and a half. Time will tell and I've been wrong before, like with 95L/Fernand.
Quoting 1160. GatorWX:
The more I look at it (52w), the more I want to say it's acquiring surface characteristics. Waiting for that telling first vis shot. Maybe it'll show, probably not, small, making it harder to distinguish. As mentioned most of yesterday evening (kudos to kman for starting the discussion), it's low and most certainly one to watch. Westward bound!



Appears to be diving sw on that loop. Odd for this time of year at that locale.
1163. GatorWX
Quoting 1162. PensacolaDoug:


Appears to be diving sw on that loop. Odd for this time of year at that locale.

1164. java162
The gfs continues to show nothing.
.... when will this season kick off???

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A humid 73 degrees with a dew point of 72. I have given up on rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, cheesy grits with shrimp, sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
1166. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N50W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W
Quoting 1164. java162:
The gfs continues to show nothing.
.... when will this season kick off???

i think it will get real busy in a week or so be patient the train is comming
1168. GatorWX
mmmmm, bourbon peach sauce? again I ask, cream based? :) I like your little sideboard menus. I get lots of ideas from them. Thanks
Quoting 1166. beell:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N50W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W



It's looking likely (to me anyway), that it'll crash into SA. If it doesn't, it'll be a low Carrib Cruiser and end up in the EastPac
Quoting 1164. java162:
The gfs continues to show nothing.
.... when will this season kick off???



It shows development of wave that emerges on August 29. (Dr Masters has mentioned)
Quoting 1164. java162:
The gfs continues to show nothing.
.... when will this season kick off???



It does not develop the wave that the NHC mentions but now develops the next one behind it in about 8 days.
1172. beell
Quoting 1169. PensacolaDoug:



It's looking likely (to me anyway), that it'll crash into SA. If it doesn't, it'll be a low Carrib Cruiser and end up in the EastPac


Seems plausible that it will enter the Caribbean at a low latitude but should respond to low level steering just N of W. Enough to get it moving away from SA and into the central Caribbean.

Development @ 80W underneath the upper anti-cyclone heading straight for the Caymans.
;)
Quoting 1165. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A humid 73 degrees with a dew point of 72. I have given up on rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, cheesy grits with shrimp, sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


To make the sauce you melt one Tbsp. butter, over medium high heat. Add the peaches and cook for about two minutes. Add 1/4 c each of brown and reg sugar and then carefully add the bourbon, (away from the stove). Return to the stove and cook until the peaches are tender. Take off stove.
1174. GatorWX
Neat contrast with this front dropping down. Thick cloud shelf and completely clear behind it. Probably looks best now at dawn, if you're interested, it's outside your window. Took pics, but don't do it justice.

its only august 26th and the hurricane season runs through november 30th. and the peek is almost 3 weeks away and it will get busy by then
Quoting 1171. clwstmchasr:


It does not develop the wave that the NHC mentions but now develops the next one behind it in about 8 days.


And by the way, it quickly takes it out to sea.
1177. GatorWX
Quoting 1173. aislinnpaps:


To make the sauce you melt one Tbsp. butter, over medium high heat. Add the peaches and cook for about two minutes. Add 1/4 c each of brown and reg sugar and then carefully add the bourbon, (away from the stove). Return to the stove and cook until the peaches are tender. Take off stove.


Well that sounds just yummy! Simple too I might add.
models out for extended breakfast. we are in the heart of the season now something could pop up quick.
"the GFS continues to show nothing."

Here's a link to the GFS, which is showing a near-Category 2 hurricane near the CV islands by 177 hours, with developing occurring by 111 hours.


It's just dropped the first wave in favor of the wave behind it. Actually, the GFS has no model support to suggest lack of development from the first wave. The ECMWF, CMC, HWRF (experimental), UKMO, NAVGEM, FIM8, FIM9, FIM7, are all showing development of some sort taking place from the first wave.

Given the GFS has done the exact opposite of the ECMWF this season, and has developed more ghost storms than ever, I'd say the other models have the right idea.
1180. GatorWX
I make a good citrus beurre blanc sauce people rave about at my restaurant. It's not actually "my" restaurant, but I'm a chef there. I love trying new things as my menu's are rarely the same. I usually just think of things spur of the moment and go with it. I love working with food, endless possibilities. Fresh is the best.

RGB of our little engine that could:

1181. GatorWX
Quoting 1179. CybrTeddy:
"the GFS continues to show nothing."

Here's a link to the GFS, which is showing a near-Category 2 hurricane near the CV islands by 177 hours, with developing occurring by 111 hours.


It's just dropped the first wave in favor of the wave behind it. Actually, the GFS has no model support to suggest lack of development from the first wave. The ECMWF, CMC, HWRF (experimental), UKMO, NAVGEM, FIM8, FIM9, FIM7, are all showing development of some sort taking place from the first wave.

Given the GFS has done the exact opposite of the ECMWF this season, and has developed more ghost storms than ever, I'd say the other models have the right idea.


981 just west of the cv's, slow mover?
1182. GatorWX
Quoting 1172. beell:


Seems plausible that it will enter the Caribbean at a low latitude but should respond to low level steering just N of W. Enough to get it moving away from SA and into the central Caribbean.

Development @ 80W underneath the upper anti-cyclone heading straight for the Caymans.
;)


Looks as if it could be a direct hit! Gosh, this has been going on for years. Too funny!
1183. beell
The 50W low at 72 hrs.

1184. GatorWX
Even if it develops some, looks to me like the dip Doug mentions is quite plausible. Not sure it'll smash into SA, but could give it issues for sure. Where do you see the northern component coming into play?


1185. SLU
I see the EURO has joined the GFS and shows little development with the system now entering the Caribbean.
Quoting 1161. GatorWX:


Doesn't look like it's moving at all imo. It's still pretty dry out there. MJO, I think is still in the wcarib and GOM. Look how Fernand did and the amount of moisture in that region. It's progressing, but takes time. It's getting there. Being dry out there should help waves stay weak and allow more progression towards the west with less northward bias. I bet opinions on this season will change in a week to week and a half. Time will tell and I've been wrong before, like with 95L/Fernand.
yeah i was thinking by da labor day weekend there gonna be fire on here about the tropics. also local met said pay attention to that trough that just came thru by u guys and possible development
1187. IKE
Today is day 87 of the ATL season. 96 days to go.

Totals....

6-0-0.
I can't believe that on peak day (September 10) there will be anything to track.

1189. SLU
Right in time for the peak of the season

1190. GatorWX
Quoting 1188. Tropicsweatherpr:
I can't believe that on peak day (September 10) there will be anything to track.



Assuming you meant won't.

How do you know that? Curious.
1191. GatorWX
Quoting 1189. SLU:
Right in time for the peak of the season



How about instability?

SLOW this morning, guess everyone's exhausted after yesterday, lol.
Quoting 1188. Tropicsweatherpr:
I can't believe that on peak day (September 10) there will be anything to track.

Not necessarily. That's 15 days out. There's no way to guarantee that scenario,
1193. vis0
CREDIT: smn.cna.gob.mx - Goverment of Mexico and its Automatic stations. (BETTER quality VID all frames show up)
Duluth, MN was 23 degrees above normal yesterday! Very impressive departure for a summer month, and probably the greatest departure ever recorded there in the month of August. Yesterday, was also the hottest August day ever recorded there when based on the mean temperature. With a high of 94 and low of 77, the mean was 85.5 degrees. This beat the previous all-time August record of 84.5 degrees set on 8/11/1947. What makes the current record even more impressive is it occurred near the end of the month with averages really beginning to fall.
1195. SLU
1196. beell
00Z ECMWF

Quoting 1188. Tropicsweatherpr:
I can't believe that on peak day (September 10) there will be anything to track.



You're right, I can't either. Why? Because it's 332 hours out.
It appears yesterday people were wishcasting for Fernand to become a hurricane?.I guess it's okay to wishcast for a hurricane as along as it dosen't happen to the U.S..
1199. SLU
Quoting 1191. GatorWX:


How about instability?

SLOW this morning, guess everyone's exhausted after yesterday, lol.


Well the combination of the lower-than-normal pressures, the warm SSTs and a strong MJO should take care of the vertical instability. We already seeing more convection over the entire basin.
1200. GatorWX
Quoting 1194. ClimateChange:
Duluth, MN was 23 degrees above normal yesterday! Very impressive departure for a summer month, and probably the greatest departure ever recorded there in the month of August. Yesterday, was also the hottest August day ever recorded there when based on the mean temperature. With a high of 94 and low of 77, the mean was 85.5 degrees. This beat the previous all-time August record of 84.5 degrees set on 8/11/1947. What makes the current record even more impressive is it occurred near the end of the month with averages really beginning to fall.


Minneapolis was 98 and could be as hot today. Maybe it's about to snow?? jk (*Spring in the Dakota's)
1201. GatorWX
Assumed it would correlate to those parameters.

Anom.
Quoting 1190. GatorWX:


Assuming you meant won't.

How do you know that? Curious.


I am aluding to the fact that almost every peak day there is something out there to follow. I know that long range forecasts change every 6 hours and are not a done deal but is a curious thing that GFS shows lack of things in the basin on that specific date.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

Wow...he's pretty tiny..
1204. GatorWX
Quoting 1200. GatorWX:


Minneapolis was 98 and could be as hot today. Maybe it's about to snow?? jk (*Spring in the Dakota's)


Minneapolis:

Monday
Partly cloudy. High of 99F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 15 mph.
1205. GatorWX
Quoting 1202. Tropicsweatherpr:


I am aluding to the fact that almost every peak day there is something out there to follow. I know that long range forecasts change every 6 hours and are not a done deal but is a curious thing that GFS shows lack of things in the basin on that specific date.


Oh, alright
Quoting 1200. GatorWX:


Minneapolis was 98 and could be as hot today. Maybe it's about to snow?? jk (*Spring in the Dakota's)


I grew up South of Minneapolis and live in NW Florida and was shocked when I logged in to Wunderground that it is currently 80 in Minneapolis and 73 here in NW Florida! We're supposed to get down to 68 tonight with a very slim chance of rain! Dry air has arrived in NW Florida, sweet!
1207. GatorWX

1208. GatorWX
Quoting 69Viking:


I grew up South of Minneapolis and live in NW Florida and was shocked when I logged in to Wunderground that it is currently 80 in Minneapolis and 73 here in NW Florida! We're supposed to get down to 68 tonight with a very slim chance of rain! Dry air has arrived in NW Florida, sweet!


Yeah, "only" 74 here. I'd expect 99 in mid July, not late August. I suppose it isn't unheard of entirely, but I do believe they either tied or broke a record yesterday and as I posted, approaching triple digits today.
50%-80% for 95E.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY MIDWEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INTERESTS
IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN

Quoting 1130. sar2401:
Anyway, it's off to bed for me, after spending the last hour looking for deals on Temptation cat treats. We have three cats, and that stuff is apparently made of part gold. Another day of following a storm with no place to go that went to no place. Of course, a big one will come and, given the stormgasms from a 50 mph tropical storm, I'm sure we'll bring down every server in the western world. Have good night, all.
Quoting 1130. sar2401:
Anyway, it's off to bed for me, after spending the last hour looking for deals on Temptation cat treats. We have three cats, and that stuff is apparently made of part gold. Another day of following a storm with no place to go that went to no place. Of course, a big one will come and, given the stormgasms from a 50 mph tropical storm, I'm sure we'll bring down every server in the western world. Have good night, all.
Sar check on eBay, pet section, Temptation treat coupons. We have three also and we buy coupons very cheap. It's a beautiful low humidity morning in Gulf Shores. Local met says no rain for at least 4 days. First time in almost 2 months of consecutive days without rain. Good morning and have a great Monday everyone.
Quoting 1208. GatorWX:


Yeah, "only" 74 here. I'd expect 99 in mid July, not late August. I suppose it isn't unheard of entirely, but I do believe they either tied or broke a record yesterday and as I posted, approaching triple digits today.


I bet they're not liking it either! 88 for a high here today with only a 20% chance of rain!
Take care everyone tropical depression could be a serious condition.Anxiety for hurricanes may worsen it.
Good morning all...

1214. IKE

1215. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND...LOCATED INLAND NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDUIM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON FERNAND ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
They still like the wave.
especially since the mdr is squashed i expect development near the conus this wk
Quoting 1210. gulfshoresAL:
Sar check on eBay, pet section, Temptation treat coupons. We have three also and we buy coupons very cheap. It's a beautiful low humidity morning in Gulf Shores. Local met says no rain for at least 4 days. First time in almost 2 months of consecutive days without rain. Good morning and have a great Monday everyone.


And it's so awesome! I wish I had extra vacation, I'd take the whole week off and enjoy the cooler DRY air!
1219. IKE
  • Today Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
  • Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
  • Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 5 mph.

Perfect weather for the Florida panhandle. The acorns are already falling.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
700 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

...FERNAND BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 97.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Quoting 1219. IKE:
  • Today Sunny, with a high near 88. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
  • Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
  • Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 5 mph.

Perfect weather for the Florida panhandle. The acorns are already falling.


IKE it's sure going to feel nice after the 2 months of humid wet weather we've had!
1222. GatorWX
Front passing at dawn this morning, neat contrast IMO.




Kind of reminded me of Northern California, albeit that was fog and much lower.
1223. IKE

Quoting 69Viking:


IKE it's sure going to feel nice after the 2 months of humid wet weather we've had!
Yes it is.
1224. Grothar
With the current position of the high and the current steering conditions, I don't know how anything can make it all the way west.


1225. GatorWX




Found it.
Quoting 1224. Grothar:
With the current position of the high and the current steering conditions, I don't know how anything can make it all the way west.




You won't hear me complaining about a lack of activity. Good morning Gro, VR, NC, Pens, Scott, Nat and all!
1227. Relix
So this is me waiting for the MJO and Peak of the Season....

1228. Grothar
1229. Relix
If I earned a penny every time "MJO is coming" or "the season is about to start" is said here I'd be rich. Good morning!
1230. GatorWX
Quoting 1227. Relix:
So this is me waiting for the MJO and Peak of the Season....



I think many feel the same, haha
1231. Grothar
Quoting 1226. StormPro:


You won't hear me complaining about a lack of activity. Good morning Gro, VR, NC, Pens, Scott, Nat and all!


Morning, Pro. Not much breakfast left. You better hurry.
1232. GatorWX
Know what you're saying relix. I'm suspecting the mdr might not truly awake as many believe it will. I've been saying all along west Carib and GOM. We'll see how it goes, may just be a late start, but it's even getting late to say that if things don't get cranking out there soon. The models have been pretty useless regarding formation out there. They seem as unsure as we do, or at least myself.
1233. GatorWX
Just to spark arousal,

Quoting 1227. Relix:
So this is me waiting for the MJO and Peak of the Season....



Looks almost like they will never come.
Quoting 1229. Relix:
If I earned a penny every time "MJO is coming" or "the season is about to start" is said here I'd be rich. Good morning!


Definitely
CW wave lost its convection... depressing.
1237. GatorWX
Still going with "watch 52w". I know it ain't as pretty as yesterday, but it's low and has some 850mb vort.

Quoting 1236. CaribBoy:
CW wave lost its convection... depressing.


don't worry, im sure it will flare up soon ;)


Pretty dry in the Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/ir4-l.jpg tropicals waves die out
very dry air! that why no storm anything soon for the four days or more
1243. GatorWX
Quoting 1242. hurricanes2018:
very dry air! that why no storm anything soon for the four days or more


Not everything happens between Africa and the Caribbean Isles.
Fernand still a TS.

AL, 06, 2013082612, , BEST, 0, 201N, 973W, 40, 1006, TS


The little T-wave that could. Keep going little fella.



its so hard to see tropical wave anymore what happern to the rain with this tropical wave
1247. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!!

1248. GatorWX



Holding its own out there. Conditions should improve above, but South America is there :l
1249. GatorWX
Quoting 1247. VR46L:
Good Morning Folks !!!



Mornin'

What's your take? (53-54w)
100% this is going out to sea!
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2 min
#Earthquake warning just issued for Mexico City. Awaiting further details.

Good Morning!
7:10 am (11:10 GMT)

A gray and humid start for today here in Lantana, Florida. These ducks didn't seem to mind though.


Dexter spies a potential victim, but got no crabs today. It appears they have been working on their hiding skills.

And the rain keeps pouring down, except for here, where we once again picked up only a minimal amount. The gauge read 0.01" this morning - the last time we got over an inch was on August 4th. A total of 3.3" for the month so far.

Have a great day everyone!
1253. VR46L
Quoting 1249. GatorWX:


Mornin'

What's your take? (53-54w)


Has some work to do , very much attached to ITCZ . but its the time of year you can't discount anything .. If it breaks from it, it could be a bit of trouble in the next few days ..
1254. vis0
CREDIT: smn.cna.gob.mx
Below is a thumbtac (ouch!) to view actual size HERE.
1255. K8eCane
Lieutenant A. L. Russell, in the U.S. Coast Guard's official response to Bermuda Triangle inquiries, writes: "It has been our experience that the combined forces of nature and the unpredictability of mankind outdo science-fiction stories many times each year."


1256. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FLOODING: SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY LEAD TO
MINOR AND URBAN-TYPE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AREAS.

WATERSPOUTS: SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG ORGANIZED BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
1257. K8eCane
I wonder if anyone has gone under a hurricane while its on the ocean
Quoting 1257. K8eCane:
I wonder if anyone has gone under a hurricane while its on the ocean

So that's what the tunnels were all about! ;-)
1259. LargoFl
tornado possibility..............
1260. GatorWX
Quoting 1253. VR46L:


Has some work to do , very much attached to ITCZ . but its the time of year you can't discount anything .. If it breaks from the it. it could be a bit of trouble in the next few days ..


Seems to me it's in front of the monsoon trough.

Shouldn't have quite the struggle to gain lat IMO.

So is it fair to say that Fernand peaked right in between the 11 PM and 5 AM advisories, somewhere around 60 mph?

Also, congrats on your 2500th blog entry, Dr. Masters!
Quoting 1257. K8eCane:
I wonder if anyone has gone under a hurricane while its on the ocean


some mariners ....often they don't live to tell about it
1264. LargoFl
1265. K8eCane
Quoting 1263. presslord:


some mariners ....often they don't live to tell about it


wonder how deep youd have to go to not know it was up there?
I see the GFS has changed its mind again.

Just proves you should get too attached to the 7+ day forecasts.
Quoting 1266. Sfloridacat5:
I see the GFS has changed its mind again.

Just proves you should get too attached to the 7 day forecasts.


I'd say the odds are still very much in favor for the wave off Africa to develop in the MDR. I suspect the GFS doesn't develop it further because it kills it over Hispaniola. Basically a track shift will cause the GFS to pick up the African wave back as a hurricane as it's still developing the wave behind it, or meaning the conditions in the Atlantic are still very favorable for development.

Even though the ECMWF doesn't develop it as much as it did previous runs, the fact it still shows something and it's more than the GFS is showing is a first this season. ECMWF ensembles, GFS ensembles, CMC, NAVGEM, FIM 7-9, HWRF, and the UKMO are all continuing to show development of a tropical cyclone near the islands this week. We may have Gabrielle and a developing Humberto by the end of this week.

Let's be fair here, the GFS has done a fairly shotty job this year itself with developing and droping storms.
The next 15 days will tell us if this season is a bust or not. Any of the models showing anything?
Quoting 1268. CaneHunter031472:
The next 15 days will tell us if this season is a bust or not. Any of the models showing anything?


GFS has a Category 2 hurricane near the Cape Verde islands developing this week, and all of the major models, with the exception of the GFS, and climate models are developing a storm in the MDR and coming WNW this week as well.
1270. GatorWX
Quoting 1265. K8eCane:


wonder how deep youd have to go to not know it was up there?


morning K8,

Do you mean underwater?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KONG-REY (T1315)
21:00 PM JST August 26 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Kong-rey (998 hPa) located at 16.9N 124.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 20.1N 123.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 21.9N 122.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.4N 122.6E - 60 knots CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
1272. HCW
Slowest Start To A Hurricane Season On Record

Obama says that hurricanes are getting worse, based on some research done at the Choom Climatological Institute.
As we approach the end of August, there have been no Atlantic hurricanes. By this date in the year 1886, there had already been seven hurricanes – including three major hurricanes, one of which wiped the city of Indianola, Texas off the map.

Obama’s presidency has also seen the fewest US hurricane landfalls of any president. Three hurricanes have hit the US while he was in office, compared to twenty-six while Grover Cleveland was in office.


Read the rest here
Link
1273. airmet3
Quoting 1229. Relix:
If I earned a penny every time "MJO is coming" or "the season is about to start" is said here I'd be rich. Good morning!


How about "The season is a bust". You be more wealthy than Bill Gates LOL.
Quoting 1269. CybrTeddy:


GFS has a Category 2 hurricane near the Cape Verde islands developing this week, and all of the major models, with the exception of the GFS, and climate models are developing a storm in the MDR and coming WNW this week as well.
GFS is so biased. it comes off literally through the CV islands. im looking with my eyes. not trusting the flip flopping GFS
1275. GatorWX
Quoting 1266. Sfloridacat5:
I see the GFS has changed its mind again.

Just proves you should get too attached to the 7+ day forecasts.


Cha-ching, although upper patterns become evident in multiple runs. Wouldn't focus on an entity that doesn't exist, even if there's potential. Have awareness of the possibility per se.
1276. K8eCane
Quoting 1270. GatorWX:


morning K8,

Do you mean underwater?



yes
Quoting 1238. PRweathercenter:


don't worry, im sure it will flare up soon ;)


Lol yes, it looks a little better on the 12Z frame :)
1278. vis0
CREDIT: smn.cna.gob.mx (all 3 are from Veracruz  station IOD VR22 in case too light to read) SEE the last one from Island  named LOBO Island,





1279. VR46L
Quoting 1272. HCW:
Slowest Start To A Hurricane Season On Record

Obama says that hurricanes are getting worse, based on some research done at the Choom Climatological Institute.
As we approach the end of August, there have been no Atlantic hurricanes. By this date in the year 1886, there had already been seven hurricanes – including three major hurricanes, one of which wiped the city of Indianola, Texas off the map.

Obama’s presidency has also seen the fewest US hurricane landfalls of any president. Three hurricanes have hit the US while he was in office, compared to twenty-six while Grover Cleveland was in office.


Read the rest here
Link


That's interesting ... Yep lot of Fish in the last few years .. you have to feel for the fish and fishermen but while they stay out to sea its a good thing !
Pretty neat radar loop showing precipiation moving opposite directions at different altitudes.
Quoting 1272. HCW:
Slowest Start To A Hurricane Season On Record



What does the Obama administration have to do with the formation of hurricanes in the tropics? This is a ridiculous presentation. Comparing the number of storms that have formed during administrations? LOL. And the comparison with Glover Cleveland's administration is an example of cherry picking data - look at how many tropical storms/hurricanes formed during Benjamin Harrison's administration.

Let's not post drivel from anti-AGW websites here, please.

Edit- in fact, its not worth repeating.
1283. GatorWX
Quoting 1276. K8eCane:



yes


I doubt intentionally, lol. They stir pretty deep. Upwelling, which is why you hear everyone talk about tropical cyclone heat potential as opposed to just surface temps.

Perhaps people have been in a submarine beneath one, although, unless deep enough, I'd imagine there'd be turbulence much like an aircraft riding into a storm!
Today's forecast;

Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 82F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

But it's already 82 out.
1285. Patrap
On 4 June 1945, a typhoon in the Pacific lashed the 3rd Fleet. Seaplanes are wrecked on the battleship Massachusetts and the cruiser Pittsburgh. The footage shows damages and repairs on the carrier Hornet. The bow of the carrier Bennington is heavily damaged.

The Pittsburgh loses 100 feet of bow, but steams to Guam, where a temporary bow is affixed. The Footage also shows the battleship Indiana.


Quoting Luisport:
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2 min
#Earthquake warning just issued for Mexico City. Awaiting further details.



Tell me they are not trying to link this quake to TS Fernand

Well, for the first time in a long time, I received some helpful rain.

After having doubt and seeing hardly anything all weekend, the rains came early morning before sunrise. with yesterday's .24" and this mornings rains, I hit the 2.00" mark

And talk about borderline for rain, the dry air is everywhere near me

1288. K8eCane
Quoting 1283. GatorWX:


I doubt intentionally, lol. They stir pretty deep. Upwelling, which is why you hear everyone talk about tropical cyclone heat potential as opposed to just surface temps.

Perhaps people have been in a submarine beneath one, although, unless deep enough, I'd imagine there'd be turbulence much like an aircraft riding into a storm!


Thanks. Just got curious because it seems as though recently there is an earthquake in the general area (globally speaking)as a landfalling TC
G'morning from Central OK,

High contines to dominate here, bringing summer temps and related precipitation chances (0%-10%) until sometime next weekend - so I'm not gonna bore you with the details.

See that "the little engine that could" managed to spin up into Ferdnand. Hopefully that rain will spread until and dampen those eastern regions in Mexico still experiencing lingering drought.

All is well, hope all is well with you.
1290. Patrap
Good news Rita, aint it Lovely


...Lovely Rita, meter maid...
1291. VR46L
Central Atlantic still looks full of dry air

1292. GatorWX
Quoting 1285. Patrap:
On 4 June 1945, a typhoon in the Pacific lashed the 3rd Fleet. Seaplanes are wrecked on the battleship Massachusetts and the cruiser Pittsburgh. The footage shows damages and repairs on the carrier Hornet. The bow of the carrier Bennington is heavily damaged.

The Pittsburgh loses 100 feet of bow, but steams to Guam, where a temporary bow is affixed. The Footage also shows the battleship Indiana.




Impressive video. Only one life lost.
1293. K8eCane
Quoting 1286. AussieStorm:


Tell me they are not trying to link this quake to TS Fernand




OOPPPS they might be
1294. GatorWX
Quoting 1288. K8eCane:


Thanks. Just got curious because it seems as though recently there is an earthquake in the general area (globally speaking)as a landfalling TC


How does that correlate?
1295. Patrap
Purty hard for weather to create a EQ, but I saw where Luisport posted the same on GLP.

Ack'
Quoting 1279. VR46L:


That's interesting ... Yep lot of Fish in the last few years .. you have to feel for the fish and fishermen but while they stay out to sea its a good thing !


Not just a lot of fish storms, but a ton of under achieving systems and ones that make a beeline for Hispaniola and fall apart.
1297. barbamz
Quoting 1257. K8eCane:
I wonder if anyone has gone under a hurricane while its on the ocean




More videos available, f.e. this one. Unfortunately they don't tell you which hurricane they've experienced. Anyway, I become seasick just by watching ;)

And hello everyone on the blog!
IS the wave in the CATL the one that the NAVGEM forecast to develop during the middle of this week? this is the forecast that Dr MASTERS said looked dubious because none of the other global models were on board. maybe the NAVGEM could be right after all l. Let wait and see what happens the next 48 hrs.
1299. K8eCane
Quoting 1294. GatorWX:


How does that correlate?



I don't know. That's why im asking and I really didn't say there is a correlation.
Quoting 1290. Patrap:
Good news Rita, aint it Lovely


...Lovely Rita, meter maid...


Yep, delicious.

Isn't moving inland too much due to dry air to the north

1301. StormWx
It was 95 in Fargo, ND yesterday. Heat continues. I dont see a labor day snow storm LMAO.

1302. VR46L
Quoting 1296. HurrMichaelOrl:


Not just a lot of fish storms, but a ton of under achieving systems and ones that make a beeline for Hispaniola and fall apart.


I can think of 6 this year.... Small short lived T.S , not even pretty fish . just blobs with a bit of spin ..
1303. K8eCane
Quoting 1299. K8eCane:



I don't know. That's why im asking and I really didn't say there is a correlation.



it was more of a subtle implication
What type of crabs has Dexter caught in the past?
Quoting 1252. mikatnight:
Good Morning!
7:10 am (11:10 GMT)

A gray and humid start for today here in Lantana, Florida. These ducks didn't seem to mind though.


Dexter spies a potential victim, but got no crabs today. It appears they have been working on their hiding skills.

And the rain keeps pouring down, except for here, where we once again picked up only a minimal amount. The gauge read 0.01" this morning - the last time we got over an inch was on August 4th. A total of 3.3" for the month so far.

Have a great day everyone!
Quoting 1285. Patrap:
On 4 June 1945, a typhoon in the Pacific lashed the 3rd Fleet. Seaplanes are wrecked on the battleship Massachusetts and the cruiser Pittsburgh. The footage shows damages and repairs on the carrier Hornet. The bow of the carrier Bennington is heavily damaged.

The Pittsburgh loses 100 feet of bow, but steams to Guam, where a temporary bow is affixed. The Footage also shows the battleship Indiana.




Pat-Weren't some ships also lost during this event? If I'm not mistaken, they were heading to the Phillipines
1306. GatorWX
Quoting 1299. K8eCane:



I don't know. That's why im asking and I really didn't say there is a correlation.


Ok. That's how it it sounded. I certainly can't imagine a small TC causing an earthquake. Did you hear them mention that on TWC or read their tweet (or whatever)?
Quoting 1113. sar2401:

Basically, it's topography. The BOC is a nice bowl, large, and relatively shallow. It's backed up by some very tall mountains to the west. This topography helps lows start to spin more quickly than in open seas, but it's also a trap. Weak storms like Fernand have to get stronger, with better organized circulation, to escape the confines of the Bay. If they dont. they tend to stay close to shore, and the generally westerly winds in the bay tend to steer them toward land. We've seen this three times this year -Invest 92, Barry, and now Fernand. It's always an area that bears watching, but the vast majority of storms that either form in or cross the Yucatan into the BOC, die there. Because we've had a few big ones spin up in the BOC and become strong hurricanes, some folks get all excited about BOC storms, but most of them turn out just like Fernand.




Thanks!!!
Good morning still have plenty of time to watch the models flip-flop.

1309. hydrus
Quoting 1285. Patrap:
On 4 June 1945, a typhoon in the Pacific lashed the 3rd Fleet. Seaplanes are wrecked on the battleship Massachusetts and the cruiser Pittsburgh. The footage shows damages and repairs on the carrier Hornet. The bow of the carrier Bennington is heavily damaged.

The Pittsburgh loses 100 feet of bow, but steams to Guam, where a temporary bow is affixed. The Footage also shows the battleship Indiana.


Halseys Typhoon ( named after Admiral Bull Halsey ) was a absolute nightmare, and cost the U.S. 790 military men...I am sur Pat knows about this one, but other bloggers may not..

A view of USS Cowpens (CVL-25) starboard side flight deck facing aft from the island. Photo taken around the time Typhoon Cobra hit the Third Fleet on 18 December 1944

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Typhoon Cobra Category 4 typhoon (SSHS)
Eye structure captured on radar
Formed December 17, 1944
Dissipated December 18, 1944
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
230 km/h (145 mph)
Gusts:
220 km/h (140 mph)
Lowest pressure %u2264 907 mbar (hPa); 26.78 inHg
Fatalities 790 U.S.,
unknown elsewhere
Areas affected Philippine Sea
Part of the 1944 Pacific typhoon season

Typhoon Cobra, also known as the Typhoon of 1944 or Halsey's Typhoon (named after Admiral William 'Bull' Halsey), was the United States Navy designation for a tropical cyclone which struck the United States Pacific Fleet in December 1944 during World War II.

Task Force 38 (TF 38) had been operating about 300 mi (260 nmi; 480 km) east of Luzon in the Philippine Sea conducting air raids against Japanese airfields in the Philippines. The fleet was attempting to refuel its ships, especially the lighter destroyers which had limited fuel carrying capacity. As the weather worsened it became increasingly difficult to refuel, and the attempts had to be discontinued. Despite warning signs of worsening conditions the ships of the fleet remained in their stations. Worse, the location and direction of the typhoon reported to Halsey were inaccurate. On December 17, Admiral Halsey unwittingly sailed Third Fleet into the heart of the typhoon.

Because of 100 mph (87 kn; 160 km/h) winds, very high seas and torrential rain, three destroyers capsized and sank, and a total of 790 lives were lost. Nine other warships were damaged, and over 100 aircraft were wrecked or washed overboard; the aircraft carrier Monterey was forced to battle a serious fire that was caused by a plane hitting a bulkhead.

USS Tabberer%u2014a small John C. Butler-class destroyer escort%u2014lost her mast and radio antennas. Though damaged and unable to radio for help, she took the initiative to remain on the scene to recover 55 of the 93 total that were rescued. Captain Henry Lee Plage earned the Legion of Merit, while the entire crew earned the Navy's Unit Commendation Ribbon, which was presented to them by Admiral Halsey.

In the words of Admiral Chester Nimitz, the typhoon's impact "represented a more crippling blow to the Third Fleet than it might be expected to suffer in anything less than a major action". The events surrounding Typhoon Cobra were similar to those the Japanese navy itself faced some nine years earlier in what they termed the "Fourth Fleet Incident."

A typhoon plays an important role in the novel The Caine Mutiny, which is thought to be based on the author's own experience surviving Typhoon Cobra.

Structure of a typhoon captured by a Navy ship's radar. This storm was the second tropical storm to ever be observed on radar. East of Philippine Islands.
3rd Fleet damages

USS Hull - with 70% fuel aboard, capsized and sunk with 202 men drowned (62 survivors)[2]
USS Monaghan - capsized and sunk with 256 men drowned (six survivors)[2]
USS Spence - rudder jammed hard to starboard, capsized and sunk with 317 men drowned (23 survivors) after hoses parted attempting to refuel from New Jersey because they had also disobeyed orders to ballast down directly from Admiral Halsey[2]
USS Cowpens - hangar door torn open and RADAR, 20mm gun sponson, whaleboat, jeeps, tractors, kerry crane, and 8 aircraft lost overboard. One sailor lost.[2]
USS Monterey - hangar deck fire killed three men and caused evacuation of boiler rooms requiring repairs at Bremerton Navy yard[2]
USS Langley - damaged[2]
USS Cabot - damaged[3]
USS San Jacinto - hangar deck planes broke loose and destroyed air intakes, vent ducts and sprinkling system causing widespread flooding.[2] Damage repaired by USS Hector[4]
USS Altamaha - hangar deck crane and aircraft broke loose and broke fire mains[2]
USS Anzio - required major repair[2]
USS Nehenta - damaged[3]
USS Cape Esperance - flight deck fire required major repair[2]
USS Kwajalein - lost steering control[2]
USS Iowa - propeller shaft bent and lost a seaplane
USS Baltimore - required major repair[2]
USS Miami - required major repair[2]
USS Dewey - lost steering control, RADAR, the forward stack, and all power when salt water shorted main electrical switchboard[2]
USS Aylwin - required major repair[2]
USS Buchanan - required major repair[2]
USS Dyson - required major repair[2]
USS Hickox - required major repair[2]
USS Maddox - damaged[3]
USS Benham - required major repair[2]
USS Donaldson - required major repair[2]
USS Melvin R, Nawman - required major repair[2]
USS Tabberer - lost foremast[5]
USS Waterman - damaged[3]
USS Nantahala - damaged[3]
USS Jicarilla - damaged[3]
Quoting 1288. K8eCane:


Thanks. Just got curious because it seems as though recently there is an earthquake in the general area (globally speaking)as a landfalling TC


More likely that the earthquake is linked to the volcanic activity of El Popo.
1311. K8eCane
Quoting 1306. GatorWX:


Ok. That's how it it sounded. I certainly can't imagine a small TC causing an earthquake. Did you hear them mention that on TWC or read their tweet (or whatever)?


no. Darn it, I forgot about Carl Parker :-( My computer is in a differen room than the TV so I haven't seen TWC today.
This is the latest FIM-9.

Almanac predicts Super storm

The Farmers' Almanac is using words like "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. And if its predictions are right, the first outdoor Super Bowl in years will be a messy "Storm Bowl."



Good lord... they are using the Farmers Almanac. ROTFLMAO
Quoting 1257. K8eCane:
I wonder if anyone has gone under a hurricane while its on the ocean


In Western history, look back at the records of Spanish colonization of the New World. Even good ol' Christopher Columbus had encounters/lost ships during his expeditions.
Quoting 1313. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This is the latest FIM-9.

how strong are both systems :D
1318. txjac
Morning all ..
You should hear all the grumbling at work. Everyone is so mad about NO rain over the weekend. Everyone, and I mean everyone, planned on rainy days, laying around on the couch, napping and watching TV. Lot's of grumbling today ...however, just checked radar and it appears that we have some showers coming at us now. Somehow its just not the same having rain while you are working compared to rain when you are at home.
Hola a todos:

Yo estoy en Mérida, Yucatán, aquí muchas cosas se basan aún con los códices de los antepasados, (Mayas), para predecir las cosas. Les comento que no hubo daños en esta zona por el paso de la tormenta Fernand, en Veracruz hay inundaciones y tembló el día de hoy nuevamente en el pacífico.

Saludos,
1320. air360
You know - I gotta say - the tropics better pick up fast. I live on the coast of NC and my birthday is Sep 5. I have many memories of tropical systems coming into our neck of the woods on my birthday or a few days on side or the other of it.

Giving the previous high expectations of this season I have been assuming a likely probability of it being another hurricane birthday...

...but goodness...things need to get going or it will be a mighty boring birthday!

:)
Quoting 1306. GatorWX:


Ok. That's how it it sounded. I certainly can't imagine a small TC causing an earthquake. Did you hear them mention that on TWC or read their tweet (or whatever)?


El Popo - the volcano has been extremely active lately. Most likely the earthquake activity is associated with the volcanic activity current ongoing. Nothing to do with the TC, as this is farr removed from the earthquake activity.

It has been hypothesized that large storms may contribute to earthquake activity by causing large movements of seabed overlying fault regions.
1322. K8eCane
Quoting 1321. daddyjames:


El Popo - the volcano has been extremely active lately. Most likely the earthquake activity is associated with the volcanic activity current ongoing. Nothing to do with the TC, as this is farr removed from the earthquake activity.

It has been hypothesized that large storms may contribute to earthquake activity by causing large movements of seabed overlying fault regions.



Bingo. Last paragraph. Thanks
Quoting 1319. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
Hola a todos:

Yo estoy en Mrida, Yucatn, aqu muchas cosas se basan an con los cdices de los antepasados, (Mayas), para predecir las cosas. Les comento que no hubo daos en esta zona por el paso de la tormenta Fernand, en Veracruz hay inundaciones y tembl el da de hoy nuevamente en el pacfico.

Saludos,


Hola,

Espero Ustedes esta bien. Bienvenidos. Pero, nada muchas personas entienden o escriben espanol.

Saludos tambien
1325. GatorWX
Quoting 1322. K8eCane:



Bingo. Last paragraph. Thanks


OK, lol, now I see where you were going I guess. :)

I was going to say too, as James mentioned, those quakes were pretty far inland.
For those of you who like to dismiss fish storms. Think again they can be deadlier.

1327. GatorWX
Quoting 1323. CaneHunter031472:


Looks like Florida '04, '05. Popular location, north central Gulf!
Quoting daddyjames:


El Popo - the volcano has been extremely active lately. Most likely the earthquake activity is associated with the volcanic activity current ongoing. Nothing to do with the TC, as this is farr removed from the earthquake activity.

It has been hypothesized that large storms may contribute to earthquake activity by causing large movements of seabed overlying fault regions.


Also large waves that crash ashore which can occur during TS/Hurricanes actually cause small tremor like waves in earths crust.
1329. bwi
Good morning all. What do we think about that small low east of Trinidad? Any development chance?
Quoting 1272. HCW:
Slowest Start To A Hurricane Season On Record

Obama says that hurricanes are getting worse, based on some research done at the Choom Climatological Institute.
As we approach the end of August, there have been no Atlantic hurricanes. By this date in the year 1886, there had already been seven hurricanes – including three major hurricanes, one of which wiped the city of Indianola, Texas off the map.

Obama’s presidency has also seen the fewest US hurricane landfalls of any president. Three hurricanes have hit the US while he was in office, compared to twenty-six while Grover Cleveland was in office.


Read the rest here
Link
Katrina, Ike, Isaac, and Sandy all favored the Democrats, and the timing of Isaac and Sandy was priceless.
1332. GatorWX
Quoting 1326. CaneHunter031472:
For those of you who like to dismiss fish storms. Think again they can be deadlier.



Waterspouts have actually been observed removing fish and displacing them far inland hundreds of miles from where they were slurped up. A fishnado is possible, and if moving over an area heavily laden with sharks, I suppose a sharknado truly could be in the realm of possibilities. Crazy, yes, but scientifically possible.
12 minutes of thunderous water.

Quoting 1272. HCW:
Slowest Start To A Hurricane Season On Record

Obama says that hurricanes are getting worse, based on some research done at the Choom Climatological Institute.
As we approach the end of August, there have been no Atlantic hurricanes. By this date in the year 1886, there had already been seven hurricanes – including three major hurricanes, one of which wiped the city of Indianola, Texas off the map.

Obama’s presidency has also seen the fewest US hurricane landfalls of any president. Three hurricanes have hit the US while he was in office, compared to twenty-six while Grover Cleveland was in office.


Read the rest here
Link


Who posted this silly article? If you are going to compare hurricane seasons, FDR had just as many during his term even though it spanned 13 years. He died the spring after his inauguration. Oh I don't know. Maybe it was because it was his 13th year in office. Maybe it was bad karma. Maybe it's because more ducks flew south for the winter.

Presidents having something to do with the weather? Let's get serious folks.
1335. K8eCane
Quoting 1325. GatorWX:


OK, lol, now I see where you were going I guess. :)

I was going to say too, as James mentioned, those quakes were pretty far inland.


Sometimes I go around by elbow to get to my calf lol. sorry.
ok Daddyjames, i will try to write in english, but is not good. thanks i'm new here, this blog is nice.

1337. K8eCane
Quoting 1328. AussieStorm:


Also large waves that crash ashore which can occur during TS/Hurricanes actually cause small tremor like waves in earths crust.


yes. good info. was wondering
1338. hydrus
Quoting 1328. AussieStorm:


Also large waves that crash ashore which can occur during TS/Hurricanes actually cause small tremor like waves in earths crust.
The Great Hurricane of 1938 was so powerful, it registered on a seismograph in Sitka ,Alaska.....Link
Quoting 1332. GatorWX:


Waterspouts have actually been observed removing fish and displacing them far inland hundreds of miles from where they were slurped up. A fishnado is possible, and if moving over an area heavily laden with sharks, I suppose a sharknado truly could be in the realm of possibilities. Crazy, yes, but scientifically possible.


Yikes!!
Quoting 1285. Patrap:
On 4 June 1945, a typhoon in the Pacific lashed the 3rd Fleet. Seaplanes are wrecked on the battleship Massachusetts and the cruiser Pittsburgh. The footage shows damages and repairs on the carrier Hornet. The bow of the carrier Bennington is heavily damaged.

The Pittsburgh loses 100 feet of bow, but steams to Guam, where a temporary bow is affixed. The Footage also shows the battleship Indiana.




Very cool !!!!! I love old black and white....remember the rolling seas in the "Victory at Sea" intro...ah the memories....I'm getting old....
1341. GatorWX
Quoting 1329. bwi:
Good morning all. What do we think about that small low east of Trinidad? Any development chance?


Pretty good spin.
Good morning all. Its a bit muggy here in the Austin area with temps currently in the upper 70s and dew points in the low 70s. We had a couple of isolated thundershowers over the weekend but nothing much in the way of measurable rain. That may change this afternoon with some of that gulf moisture making its way inland.
Quoting 1336. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
ok Daddyjames, i will try to write in english, but is not good. thanks i'm new here, this blog is nice.


Y mi espanol es no bueno!

As I demonstrated :D.

Hay algunas personas, pero no estan aqui ahora mismo.

Salud
1344. barbamz
Yosemite wildfires threaten California towns
Hundreds of firefighters deployed to protect mountain communities as fire rages north of Yosemite national park
Associated Press in Groveland / theguardian.com, Monday 26 August 2013 10.47 BST

Hundreds of firefighters have been deployed to protect mountain communities in the path of a fire raging north of Yosemite national park in California, as fierce winds batter Sierra mountain ridges and flames jump from treetop to treetop.
Winds gusting up to 50mph (80kph) have caused the flames to reach oak and pine treetops as high as 30 metres (100ft), feeding on bone-dry brush on the ground to create very difficult conditions.
"A crown fire is much more difficult to fight," said Daniel Berlant of the California department of forestry and fire protection on Sunday. "Our firefighters are on the ground having to spray up."
Firefighters gained little ground in slowing the now 225-sq mile (582.75 sq km) blaze. Officials estimate containment at just 7%.
Fire officials are using bulldozers to clear contingency lines on the rim fire's north side to protect the towns of Tuolumne City, Ponderosa Hills and Twain Hart. The lines are being cut a mile ahead of the fire in locations where fire officials hope they will help protect the communities should the fire jump containment lines.
The blaze that has swept rapidly across steep, rugged river canyons has become one of the biggest in California history, thanks in part to extremely dry conditions caused by a lack of snow and rainfall this year. ...


Whole article see link above.
Quoting 1326. CaneHunter031472:
For those of you who like to dismiss fish storms. Think again they can be deadlier.



LOL
1347. GatorWX
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N51W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

??
1348. hydrus
for anyone interested. This is an excellent show called The American Experience, narrated by David McCullough on the the Hurricane of 38. Definitely worth the time. ..Link
ok, i hope find some persons to write in spanish here. but i like tihis blog, there are some interesting people.

salud!
Quoting 1318. txjac:
Morning all ..
You should hear all the grumbling at work. Everyone is so mad about NO rain over the weekend. Everyone, and I mean everyone, planned on rainy days, laying around on the couch, napping and watching TV. Lot's of grumbling today ...however, just checked radar and it appears that we have some showers coming at us now. Somehow its just not the same having rain while you are working compared to rain when you are at home.


LOL - amazing how the high reared its ugly head just in time to block any moisture - coming from either the east or the west.
Quoting 1348. hydrus:
for anyone interested. This is an excellent shoe called The American Experience, narrated by David McCullough on the the Hurricane of 38. Definitely worth the time. ..Link


I am partial to Birkenstocks myself, but if you have anymore excellent shoes - let us know ;D

G'morning hydrus.
1352. hydrus
These storms were historical and as fierce, if not more so than the Hurricane of 38.


The Great September Gale of 1815 (the term hurricane was not yet common in the American vernacular), which hit New York City directly as a Category 3 hurricane, caused extensive damage and created an inlet that separated the Long Island resort towns of the Rockaways and Long Beach into two separate barrier islands.

The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, a Category 4 storm which made four separate landfalls in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and southern New England. The storm created the highest recorded storm surge in Manhattan of nearly 13 feet and severely impacted the farming regions of Long Island and southern New England.

The 1869 Saxby Gale affected areas in Northern New England, decimating the Maine coastline and the Canadian Outer Banks. It was the last major hurricane to affect New England until the 1938 storm.

The 1893 New York hurricane, a Category 2 storm, directly hit the city itself, causing a great storm surge that pummeled the coastline, completely removing the Long Island resort town of Hog Island.


The links are on this page...Link
1353. hydrus
Quoting 1351. daddyjames:


I am partial to Birkenstocks myself, but if you have anymore excellent shoes - let us know ;D

G'morning hydrus.
Morning..I am rushing, there for my typing suffers..:)
Looks like this year's SAL behaviour affecting the CV season, should move meteorology to new areas of investigation....

Quoting 1334. LAsurvivor:


Who posted this silly article? If you are going to compare hurricane seasons, FDR had just as many during his term even though it spanned 13 years. He died the spring after his inauguration. Oh I don't know. Maybe it was because it was his 13th year in office. Maybe it was bad karma. Maybe it's because more ducks flew south for the winter.

Presidents having something to do with the weather? Let's get serious folks.

The President declared a red line that Mother Nature couldn't cross or else. Mother Nature, being fearful of our anointed leader, paid attention and was obedient. hahahaaha
Quoting 1349. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
ok, i hope find some persons to write in spanish here. but i like tihis blog, there are some interesting people.

salud!


Welcome, Yucatan - there are some people on the blog that are native Spanish speakers. A few are from Puerto Rico, one from Honduras (he is in school now, but will likely be on later), and there are probably others as well.
1357. hydrus
Quoting 1291. VR46L:
Central Atlantic still looks full of dry air

South Atlantic too. I dont believe I have ever seen Brazil that dry..Hope it is not a sign of things to come. The largest rain forest in the world suddenly going dry would have some serious repercussions.
I posted a link to a scientific study of the Saharan dust done in 2006 in the CV islands. The post is 797.(very informative)
There is lots of moisture in the GOM and Western Carib.
Is there anything spinning that can generate into a storm anytime soon?
Quoting 1360. seer2012:
I posted a link to a scientific study of the Saharan dust done in 2006 in the CV islands. The post is 797.(very informative)


Thanks, looking into that post....
ok Labonbon, thanks, i hope find the people in spanish later, but if the people can read me with my english poor. I will try to write in english. I hope you undestand. Here in Mexico don't exist a blog like this. This blog is very interesting for me. Salud!
Seems to me I remmeber reading about the man made reef sunken Navy ship "Orinsky" off the coast of Pensacola. It moved significantly from hurricane Ike. Also don't people stay on board the US Alabama during Hurricanes? Seems there would be a lot of markers underwater with indicators of the strength of currents from cyclone events,
Quoting 1265. K8eCane:


wonder how deep youd have to go to not know it was up there?
Picked up 4.20" of rain here in Altamonte Springs since last Friday. Really has brought August to near and even above normal rain in many areas around Orlando after a dry start to the month.
Quoting 1347. GatorWX:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N51W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

??


Gator, it's going to be a close call. Our AOI nearing the islands needs to tighten and get some vertical height to it in order to miss crashing into South America. There's a few other things going for it, albeit small, that may be helpful in its missing land: there's a bubble of high pressure above the equator helping to lift the Itcz in which the AOI is embedded.

Additionally, the moisture gyre is piling up in that area which may ultimately give it a little push west/northwest at some point. It'll be about timing, of course, and whether or not it can get some good lift going, increase vorticity around its coc to feel a bit of a Coriolis tug to gain some latitude.



Another thing, pressures obviously need to drop, but it also has a bit 0f 1012mb sort of "blocking" high pressure to its west - same pressure as the low. That should, I think, help serve to slow the system down a bit too in weaker steering as it approaches the continent. Gonna be real iffy, but it's got a chance, albeit a slight one.

Good morning guys

Quoting 1361. rmbjoe1954:
There is lots of moisture in the GOM and Western Carib.
Is there anything spinning that can generate into a storm anytime soon?

there is a low just east of the lesser Antilles
Quoting 1363. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
ok Labonbon, thanks, i hope find the people in spanish later, but if the people can read me with my english poor. I will try to write in english. I hope you undestand. Here in Mexico don't exist a blog like this. This blog is very interesting for me. Salud!


We have seen worse. Please, do not worry. You do well.
1369. GatorWX
Quoting 1359. sunlinepr:




Interesting swirl, 700mb level. Wonder if it'll make it to the coast.

Quoting 1358. sunlinepr:
something is spinning in the Caribbean.
Maybe these waves in East Atlantic are missing more favorable environment created by MJO moving into MDR right now. Idk enough about it to confirm this though and I already got chew out by a met on here for saying it two days ago.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF
NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 20.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 21.4N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
1373. GatorWX
Quoting 1366. moonlightcowboy:


Gator, it's going to be a close call. Our AOI nearing the islands needs to tighten and get some vertical height to it in order to miss crashing into South America. There's a few other things going for it, albeit small, that may be helpful in its missing land: there's a bubble of high pressure above the equator helping to lift the Itcz in which the AOI is embedded.

Additionally, the moisture gyre is piling up in that area which may ultimately give it a little push west/northwest at some point. It'll be about timing, of course, and whether or not it can get some good lift going, increase vorticity around its coc to feel a bit of a Coriolis tug to gain some latitude.



Another thing, pressures obviously need to drop, but it also has a bit 0f 1012mb sort of "blocking" high pressure to its west - same pressure as the low. That should, I think, help serve to slow the system down a bit too in weaker steering as it approaches the continent. Gonna be real iffy, but it's got a chance, albeit a slight one.



Informative post, thanks MLC

And good morning to you.
Quoting 1347. GatorWX:
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N51W
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

??


Gonna crash into SA..... BORING
Jajaja, at least you understand me. This is good for me. nice day. Here in Yucatan is a nice day. I hope my first huracan live her this season.
Quoting 1370. HurricaneAndre:
something is spinning in the Caribbean.

there is a tropical wave and a upper trof
Quoting 1366. moonlightcowboy:


Gator, it's going to be a close call. Our AOI nearing the islands needs to tighten and get some vertical height to it in order to miss crashing into South America. There's a few other things going for it, albeit small, that may be helpful in its missing land: there's a bubble of high pressure above the equator helping to lift the Itcz in which the AOI is embedded.

Additionally, the moisture gyre is piling up in that area which may ultimately give it a little push west/northwest at some point. It'll be about timing, of course, and whether or not it can get some good lift going, increase vorticity around its coc to feel a bit of a Coriolis tug to gain some latitude.



Another thing, pressures obviously need to drop, but it also has a bit 0f 1012mb sort of "blocking" high pressure to its west - same pressure as the low. That should, I think, help serve to slow the system down a bit too in weaker steering as it approaches the continent. Gonna be real iffy, but it's got a chance, albeit a slight one.



Cowboy, please keep posts like this coming. I learn a lot from you when you post these!
Quoting YUCATANCHICXULUB:
ok Labonbon, thanks, i hope find the people in spanish later, but if the people can read me with my english poor. I will try to write in english. I hope you undestand. Here in Mexico don't exist a blog like this. This blog is very interesting for me. Salud!


Don't worry about poor English. There are plenty of people on ere that are not native speakers. Also, if there are some things you find difficulty writing in English there are enough people on here that could translate.
Quoting 1371. Bluestorm5:
Maybe these waves in East Atlantic are missing more favorable environment created by MJO moving into MDR right now. Idk enough about it to confirm this though and I already got chew out by a met on here for saying it two days ago.


Can't help w/ your MJO thought (sorry). But you handled the met well, I think. Some folks on here can get a tad aggressive...

BTW - 2nd week of school, I think? Going well?
1381. GatorWX
Quoting 1360. seer2012:
I posted a link to a scientific study of the Saharan dust done in 2006 in the CV islands. The post is 797.(very informative)


Missed that last night. Will read. Thanks. Levi, Pottery and I had a little discussion going prior to your post, which I suppose may have been a response.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 26 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. ALL REMAINING TASKING ON TS FERNAND CANCELLED BY
NHC AT 26/0030Z.
B. A GLOBAL HAWK DROPWINDSONDE MISSION DEPARTING 27/1100Z
TO OPERATE IN AREA BOUNDED BY 6N - 25N AND 28W - 40W,
FL 550 TO 650. DURATION OF MISSION IS 25.5 HRS.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1354. sunlinepr:
Looks like this year's SAL behaviour affecting the CV season, should move meteorology to new areas of investigation....



agreed
1385. Thrawst
I had my first college class this morning. It was MSC111 which is an introduction to Marine Science. However both professors had stout interests in meteorology and one of the first things the professors said were that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was moving into our area of the world, enhancing the likelihood of tropical storms and hurricanes in our area.

I just had to smile and think of how much this blog talks about the MJO lol.
Quoting 1364. eyesontheweather:
Seems to me I remmeber reading about the man made reef sunken Navy ship "Orinsky" off the coast of Pensacola. It moved significantly from hurricane Ike. Also don't people stay on board the US Alabama during Hurricanes? Seems there would be a lot of markers underwater with indicators of the strength of currents from cyclone events,

According to what I just read a submarine can roll 5 to 10 degrees at 400 feet when a major storm is happening.
Quoting 1387. moonlightcowboy:


Thanks. Well, the SFC MAP just updated, so the pressure slowing forward motion is likely out, and it looks like it will continue its southwestward motion in the north-northeastlerly flow towards the continent. Although in an area of weak steering, it now either has to depend on the Itcz continuing to rise to or above 11,12n, or the moisture gyre to give it a bit of a push west/west-northwest, or get busy developing so that it may feel some hint of a Coriolis tug. I'm having my doubts.

Got to run. Y'all hold the fort down. Have a nice day! :)


New blog - move along mlc! And a good day to you.
1389. GatorWX
Quoting 1363. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
ok Labonbon, thanks, i hope find the people in spanish later, but if the people can read me with my english poor. I will try to write in english. I hope you undestand. Here in Mexico don't exist a blog like this. This blog is very interesting for me. Salud!


Usted podría intentar google translate y se deja traducir para usted. No puede tener resultados perfectos, pero tal vez usted sabe lo suficiente para corregir. Lo usé para traducir del Inglés al Español. Aquí está el enlace. ¿Cómo está mi español?
Rightnow. Dark but dry.

My updated forecast for named tropical systems is
18 of which will be 8 Hurricanes, 10 storms that remained Tropical Storms, and 4 of which became Major Hurricanes.

My rationale is that we already had 6 Tropical storms over two weeks out from the peak date, and if you have 6 more storms after the peak three week period, let's say from this Friday to about September 25, then your at 12 storms, no problem. Add in the storms from the peak period, and you end up with 6 more storms, of which at least 5 should be hurricanes and one a Tropical storm is my guess. Then you have 3 more hurricanes out of the 6 storms after the three week peak of the season. I think that the conditions in the Atlantic are better now, and only getting better primed from here on out so more Hurricanes after the climo peak.

Those getting bored with these short lived Tropical Storms, hold on because I estimate out of the next 12 storms, eight will be Hurricanes and half (4) will be Majors. I further anticipate that out of these 10 remaining storms, no less than 5 will put someone in the U.S. in the Cone at day three, and no less than 2 will make landfall between a point just south of the Florida, Georgia line to the Texas, Louisiana line. I expect 2 majors to at least threaten the U.S. within in a 3 day Cone.

The above is only my educated guess, and should not be used for any planning purposes....blah, blah, blah...

Add a live post
At least his spelling is better than Taz ;-)


Quoting OviedoWatcher:


Don't worry about poor English. There are plenty of people on ere that are not native speakers. Also, if there are some things you find difficulty writing in English there are enough people on here that could translate.
Quoting WunderYakuza:
Add a live post


bakit naman. lol
Quoting 1349. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
ok, i hope find some persons to write in spanish here. but i like tihis blog, there are some interesting people.

salud!

Hello there, your english is good enough to write your entries in english. There's nothing to worry about.