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Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2013

A weak trough of low pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico has created a small area of heavy thunderstorms off the coast of Alabama, which are moving west at 10 - 15 mph. Surface pressures are high in the region, wind shear is a moderately high 15 - 20 knots, and an upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Channel is bringing some dry air to the Gulf of Mexico. These factors will discourage development, and in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 10% chance of development by Wednesday.


Figure 1. A weak trough of low pressure over the Northern Gulf of Mexico created a modest area of heavy thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, August 22, 2013. Image crest: NASA.

A tropical wave that emerged form the coast of Africa on Thursday night could develop by Wednesday the 28th midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, according to this morning's 00Z run of the Navy's NAVGEM model. However, this forecast is dubious, as none of the other models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic during the coming week. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry, stable air, and a new outbreak of dust and dry air is exiting the coast of Africa this weekend, which will keeping the Tropical Atlantic dry though at least Thursday, August 29. Another tropical wave will come off the coast of Africa on Monday August 26, and these two tropical waves may be able to prime the tropical Atlantic for higher chances of development by leaving a moister environment for a vigorous tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday, August 29.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 9-E is headed northwards along the coast of Baja California. Cold waters off the coast of Baja California will likely keep TD 9-E from strengthening into a hurricane, and the storm is not expected to make landfall in Mexico. However, moisture from TD 9-E will stream into Northwest Mexico over the weekend, increasing the odds of flash flooding. The models predict formation of a new tropical storm that will follow a similar path to TD 9-E along the west coast of the Baja Peninsula during the last few days of August.

I'll have a new post later today on the hurricane flood risk from Florida's Lake Okeechobee this year.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 995. cosmicstorm:
Chicklit wonderful posts!! I have lurked here many years learning from those who have a greater understanding than I do. I respect that knowledge from others and also I have a great respect for mother nature. I enjoy this blog. Thank you to all for your contributions.

IMO one of the driving forces of this blog is Katrina Effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans
About 1500 people died in NOLA from Katrina. Many of whom had no transportation out of the city. Damn.
I hope this is all I have to say the whole season.
Quoting 993. cmckla:


NOLA has earned a break this year from hurricanes. LA has seen something every year since 2005.

Send them west to Texas this year.
Chicklit is on fire tonight, loving her posts. Sar called at about five for the GOM AOI to go to Mexico/Texas border and Skypony called for the two to combine and possibly affect Baha when they reach the east Pacific, they are ahead of the game. We've got some sharp cookies here that's for sure.
There is a good-looking wave in the vicinity of 28W/11N that has to be watched. I'll be curious to see what it does in the coming days.
1005. will40
Quoting 1000. txjac:
Please God ...if you arent going to give me rain can I please have some cloud cover at least?


I know Gro ...whining again


you have every right to whine. we all would whine if in your situation of the much needed rain
1006. cmckla
Quoting 1001. Chicklit:

Thanks Sweets.
If you want to understand one of the driving forces of this blog read this Effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans
About 1500 people died in NOLA from Katrina. Many of whom had no transportation out of the city. Damn.
I hope this is all I have to say the whole season.


It was sad however they ignored a mandatory evacuation and waited way to long. Once Katrina got into the gulf and rapidly intensefied and was forcasted to head towards NOLA everyone in low lying areas and outside the levees should have left. No one expected the levees to breach however it is something that could have happened before Katrina. Bottom line cat 3+ in gulf headed towards NOLA get out and get out early.
Hello, all - hope everyone's doing well this evening. Been a bit under the weather today (no pun intended), but just checking in. Would have thought we'd have had some rain in Baton Rouge by now, but didn't happen. The HWO just says chance of TS's for the next few days.

I see we've got another yellow circle as well.

Anything substantial headed my way in the near future that you all see?

TIA
Stupid weather, it never be doing what you want it to do
Hello All,

Just wanted to finally say hi and how much you learn on this site. I've been seeing all your posts since.... I think 2008-09 and you all are the bomb.com thank you all for giving me updates before anything. I work for WSVN 7 in Miami and we did a shoot for the beginning of Hurricane season and just wanted to say that they know about this site. Guys again keep up the GREAT work!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...LARGE IVO MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 112.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IVO.
1011. cmckla
Quoting 1002. Chicklit:

Send them west to Texas this year.


Gladly will.
Quoting 1003. Tribucanes:
Chicklit is on fire tonight, loving her posts. Sar called at about five for the GOM AOI to go to Mexico/Texas border and Skypony called for the two to combine and possibly affect Baha when they reach the east Pacific, they are ahead of the game. We've got some sharp cookies here that's for sure.

Thanks Tribu. A mess tonight fo sho.
blame it on da moon
also feel bad about Washi but gee whiz.
deal with that a lot in my job
recruit advocates for abused, neglected and abandoned kids.
wake up world.
s* happens.
we need to care enough to clean it up and make it better.
my name is jude

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND IVO STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION
DEVOID OF AN INNER CORE. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR THE
AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN PIVOTING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC
GYRE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DIMINISHING...AND THERE IS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES SUGGEST LOWER WINDS...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP
REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. IVO HAS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IVO CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS
INDUCED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IVO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS...BECOMES SHALLOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE
WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK AND OTHERS A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LATTER SCENARIO...WHICH INCLUDE THE ECMWF...IS
PROBABLY THE RESULT OF THE MODELS ASSUMING IVO TO BE A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOW CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.7N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 23.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1014. GatorWX
And the General sat, as the lines on the map
moved from side to side


Not much for heavy rain rate over Africa but The Indian Ocean and the west end of Cuba is really pouring.
"Ain't no change in the weather
Ain't no changes in me
Well there ain't no change in the weather
Ain't no changes in me
And I ain't hidin' from nobody
Nobody's hidin' from me
Oh, that's the way it's supposed to be"
1017. txjac
Quoting 1012. Chicklit:

Thanks Tribu. A mess tonight fo sho.
blame it on da moon
also feel bad about Washi but gee whiz.
deal with that a lot in my job
recruit advocates for abused, neglected and abandoned kids.
wake up world.
s* happens.
we need to care enough to clean it up and make it better.


How long is she gone for?
How far north the moisture do you think Ivo's moisture will get? (BTW, thanks to all of you for contributing so much to the blog, I learned a lot from you all, seriously if it weren't for me lurking around this blog, I would not know a fraction of what I know now and even so I am still below the expertise of some of you. Thank you!).
1019. cmckla
Quoting 1007. LAbonbon:
Hello, all - hope everyone's doing well this evening. Been a bit under the weather today (no pun intended), but just checking in. Would have thought we'd have had some rain in Baton Rouge by now, but didn't happen. The HWO just says chance of TS's for the next few days.

I see we've got another yellow circle as well.

Anything substantial headed my way in the near future that you all see?

TIA


Nothing of interest. Experts calling for something off of Africa Aug 29. Week away before we need to watch and 2 weeks if it heads our way.

Watching Nicondra Norwood now and is saying gulf is shutdown right now. High pressure to the north sinking over us tonight and ULL in central gulf supressing the blob over Nicaragua. Looks like everything moving west if anything gets in gulf.
Quoting 1018. hurricaneben:
How far north the moisture do you think Ivo's moisture will get? (BTW, thanks to all of you for contributing so much to the blog, I learned a lot from you all, seriously if it weren't for me lurking around this blog, I would not know a fraction of what I know now and even so I am still below the expertise of *some of you. Thank you!).


Make that *many of you.
What happened with Washi? She has top five most comments of any blogger here. She and Patrap are as entertaining for me as Levi and Drak.
Quoting 1006. cmckla:


It was sad however they ignored a mandatory evacuation and waited way to long. Once Katrina got into the gulf and rapidly intensefied and was forcasted to head towards NOLA everyone in low lying areas and outside the levees should have left. No one expected the levees to breach however it is something that could have happened before Katrina. Bottom line cat 3+ in gulf headed towards NOLA get out and get out early.

most of them had no way out.
others prolly never knew it could get that bad.
there was no plan for folks with no cars


1023. yoboi
Quoting 1007. LAbonbon:
Hello, all - hope everyone's doing well this evening. Been a bit under the weather today (no pun intended), but just checking in. Would have thought we'd have had some rain in Baton Rouge by now, but didn't happen. The HWO just says chance of TS's for the next few days.

I see we've got another yellow circle as well.

Anything substantial headed my way in the near future that you all see?

TIA


I got almost 5 inches of rain this week....and now Mr Mosquito is buzzing around......
1025. cmckla
Quoting 1022. Chicklit:

most of them had no way out.
others prolly never knew it could get that bad.
there was no plan for folks with no cars




Everyone failed for Katrina. Now lets hope if something ever happens like a Katrina again it will be different. However my gut says it won't be.
Quoting 1009. Ilivedandrew92:
Hello All,

Just wanted to finally say hi and how much you learn on this site. I've been seeing all your posts since.... I think 2008-09 and you all are the bomb.com thank you all for giving me updates before anything. I work for WSVN 7 in Miami and we did a shoot for the beginning of Hurricane season and just wanted to say that they know about this site. Guys again keep up the GREAT work!


Do I get a lollipop for contributing?

Orange or Strawberry flavor, preferably.
Quoting 960. Chicklit:

Doc Masters says in two blogs to watch out for Aug. 29. That is one week from yesterday.
Therefore, I conclude by this time next week there will be something going on.
As one of the least scientific people on the blog, after observing the odds of who says what and what happens, I'm a pretty good better on horses (so to speak).
So when Doc Masters or Kmanislander, for example, point out a feature, you probably want to keep an eye on it.
Simple as that. I don't claim to know anything about tropical systems other than the trends I've observed. And usually rely upon the NHC as well as observations from trusted people on this blog.
TAX13 is also pretty astute and tends to rely upon facts rather than opinions.
Am one of the dumbest on here (when it comes to technical aspects of meteorology), but like to watch what the ones who know what they're talking about have to say. Thaz all.


Give yourself some credit girl...Me thinks your weather lightbulb is burning quite brightly!
Quoting 1019. cmckla:


Nothing of interest. Experts calling for something off of Africa Aug 29. Week away before we need to watch and 2 weeks if it heads our way.

Watching Nicondra Norwood now and is saying gulf is shutdown right now. High pressure to the north sinking over us tonight and ULL in central gulf supressing the blob over Nicaragua. Looks like everything moving west if anything gets in gulf.


cmckla - thanks so much for the info. Really not feeling up to par to check the usual sites. So thanks again, I appreciate it.

Goodnight, all. Hitting the hay again...
Quoting 1022. Chicklit:

most of them had no way out.
others prolly never knew it could get that bad.
there was no plan for folks with no cars




Ya the poor had little way out. The huge death toll was elderly with no support network over 60; that made up over 75% of fatalities.
Quoting 1025. cmckla:


Everyone failed for Katrina. Now lets hope if something ever happens like a Katrina again it will be different. However my gut says it won't be.

I read a study on Katrina.
They prepared for Ivan.
I.E. people with cars were handled well and evacuated.
They didn't prepare for Katrina because that had not happened before.
Therefore, there was little or no communication with the folks that had no transportation of their own.
There was no plan for when communication went down in the city.
There was no place for people to go who stayed behind.
This will absolutely not happen again because it's already happened.
We're not prepared for what we haven't experienced yet.
Quoting 1023. yoboi:


I got almost 5 inches of rain this week....and now Mr Mosquito is buzzing around......


Good news! (rain, not the skeeters) So the ponds are doing well, I hope :)

1032. cmckla
Quoting 1028. LAbonbon:


cmckla - thanks so much for the info. Really not feeling up to par to check the usual sites. So thanks again, I appreciate it.

Goodnight, all. Hitting the hay again...


Your welcome. Get to feeling better.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE
TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE THEN IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE WHILE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

1034. GatorWX
Just as long as the guitar plays
Let it steal your heart away, steal your heart away
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE WHILE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

we need to watch it if it go back in the water in the GOM
Quoting 1008. HimacaneBrees:
Stupid weather, it never be doing what you want it to do



LOLOLOLOL
What are the patterns looking like for when the predicted wave starts developing next week? Could it recurve way out east, will it recurve closer to the Lower 48 or will it just go westward like Ike and Dean? Curious, a little confused on the pattern changes.
Quoting 1030. Chicklit:

I read a study on Katrina.
They prepared for Ivan.
I.E. people with cars were handled well and evacuated.
They didn't prepare for Katrina because that had not happened before.
Therefore, there was little or no communication with the folks that had no transportation of their own.
There was no plan for when communication went down in the city.
There was no place for people to go who stayed behind.
This will absolutely not happen again because it's already happened.
We're not prepared for what we haven't experienced yet.


Watching that unfold was so horrible. Day after day in the most advance civilized civilization ever. There is no response for mega disasters. We are not ready, and so many could happen any day.
Quoting 1030. Chicklit:

I read a study on Katrina.
They prepared for Ivan.
I.E. people with cars were handled well and evacuated.
They didn't prepare for Katrina because that had not happened before.
Therefore, there was little or no communication with the folks that had no transportation of their own.
There was no plan for when communication went down in the city.
There was no place for people to go who stayed behind.
This will absolutely not happen again because it's already happened.
We're not prepared for what we haven't experienced yet.


There were folks who did the Ivan evacuation, and sat in cars for upwards of 15-20 hours. I know people (mainly older) who chose not to leave for Katrina because they said they couldn't face the evac traffic again. Afterwards they said they'd never stay again...
1040. GatorWX


Not going to happen tonight. Vorticity all over the place. I need wifi!! This is difficult.
1041. MTWX
Interesting analysis and a play by play chase by one the stormchasers on the El Reno EF-5. Enjoy!

Link
1042. SLU
JAMSTEC:

August 20, 2013 (notes updated August 21, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific (namely, a weak La Nina state) will start to decay through boreal autumn, and the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal winter. Our two-year prediction system suggests a weak El Nino state in the latter half of 2014.


We're due for another El Nino-induced bust season.
1043. will40
Quoting 1037. hurricaneben:
What are the patterns looking like for when the predicted wave starts developing next week? Could it recurve way out east, will it recurve closer to the Lower 48 or will it just go westward like Ike and Dean? Curious, a little confused on the pattern changes.


a lot of variables to consider to make a call on a situation like that. Lot will depend on the strength of the system. usually shallow systems take a track more west
Guys with Sept 10th approaching do you all still agree with the NHC with the amounts of tropical systems that are supposed to form. I know it's super tuff to predict it but just want to know you input. Thanks guys
1045. cmckla
Quoting 1030. Chicklit:

I read a study on Katrina.
They prepared for Ivan.
I.E. people with cars were handled well and evacuated.
They didn't prepare for Katrina because that had not happened before.
Therefore, there was little or no communication with the folks that had no transportation of their own.
There was no plan for when communication went down in the city.
There was no place for people to go who stayed behind.
This will absolutely not happen again because it's already happened.
We're not prepared for what we haven't experienced yet.


I have to disagree with you. Why?

1) Documentaries aired years before Katrina showing what would happen if a cat 5 storm hit NOLA at high tide and from the SW. Katrina did just that. Made landfall as a 5 in Buras at high tide.

2) Another Katrina will happen again.
3) Poor or not you live in hurricane prone area and know you must be prepared.

4) You can and should prepare for the worse.
1046. yoboi
Quoting 1029. Tribucanes:


Ya the poor had little way out. The huge death toll was elderly with no support network over 60; that made up over 75% of fatalities.


I would like to know the true death toll....I was there for a week the day after landfall....many elderly in nursing homes with no electricity and the heat was unreal....indirect deaths I guess we will never know......I also remember for months after rita reading the Obituaries....there was like ten times the amount of death as normal......natural disasters bring alot of stress to a community......
1047. GatorWX
One thing I can say now with certainty is mosquitoes have been lacking here in sw fl considering all the rain and standing water. No see em's on the other hand. Dusk and dawn are not good times to be outside standing still.
The El Reno tornado was far more amazing than most will ever know. Possibly the most powerful storm ever. Dozens of vorticies, many EF3+ and winds over 350mph and over three miles wide. SPC decided the public wasn't ready for that information.
Quoting 1045. cmckla:


I have to disagree with you. Why?

1) Documentaries aired years before Katrina showing what would happen if a cat 5 storm hit NOLA at high tide and from the SW. Katrina did just that. Made landfall as a 5 in Buras at high tide.

2) Another Katrina will happen again.
3) Poor or not you live in hurricane prone area and know you must be prepared.

4) You can and should prepare for the worse.

Katrina made landfall as a Category 3 with winds of 125 mph.
Quoting 1008. HimacaneBrees:
Stupid weather, it never be doing what you want it to do


Yes :(
1051. miamivu
Quoting 1012. Chicklit:

Thanks Tribu. A mess tonight fo sho.
blame it on da moon
also feel bad about Washi but gee whiz.
deal with that a lot in my job
recruit advocates for abused, neglected and abandoned kids.
wake up world.
s* happens.
we need to care enough to clean it up and make it better.
my name is jude

Just fyi, Miami Mayor Gimenez is supporting closing libraries and laying off 200 staff (on top of the 300 layed off in 2011). Talk about disenfranchising those who need library services the most...many of the branches that will closed or partially closed are in some of the poorest areas in the county. Email the Mayor and County Commissioners to let them know what clowns they are going to look on the national political stage.
Quoting 1046. yoboi:


I would like to know the true death toll....I was there for a week the day after landfall....many elderly in nursing homes with no electricity and the heat was unreal....indirect deaths I guess we will never know......I also remember for months after rita reading the Obituaries....there was like ten times the amount of death as normal......natural disasters bring alot of stress to a community......


That's a great point yoboi. Taking all the after effects, death toll could have easily topped 10K.
The MoSkeeters around my house are huge. I ain't even playing, I seen one with a tick on it.
1054. Asta
Quoting 1022. Chicklit:

most of them had no way out.
others prolly never knew it could get that bad.
there was no plan for folks with no cars




As my Louisiana ancestors always said- fear the lake, not the river, levee or not...

Any meteorologist worth his or her salt should tour the gulf coast where katrina made landfall in MS as well as Louisiana if they have not already done so-and not just from a plane.

That said, I am always grateful for a quiet season and for the men and women who helped people understand the weather before hand, and helped in the aftermath of the levee failures- and still continue to help the area.

A special thanks to all Mets during Hurricane Season...
Carry on!

nite all


1055. cmckla
Quoting 1049. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Katrina made landfall as a Category 3.


It was a 5. NHC classified it as a 3 based soley on wind speed however as we know from the updated enhanced fujita scale the same principal needs to apply to the saffir simpson scale.

Katrina was a 5 based on:

Tidal surge
Death toll
Dollars of damage
1056. MTWX
Quoting 1053. HimacaneBrees:
The MoSkeeters around my house are huge. I ain't even playing, I seen one with a tick on it.


Had one try to carry my weiner dog away the other night!! The skeeters here are relentless!!! Even when you layer on 100% DEET!!
1057. GatorWX
Quoting 1048. Tribucanes:
The El Reno tornado was far more amazing than most will ever know. Possibly the most powerful storm ever. Dozens of vorticies, many EF3+ and winds over 350mph and over three miles wide. SPC decided the public wasn't ready for that information.


I was impressed just by the footage and the fact it caught so many pros off guard.
1058. yoboi
Quoting 1052. Tribucanes:


That's a great point yoboi. Taking all the after effects, death toll could easily top 10K.


It is something overlooked.....I am thankful for being somewhat young 30's during 2005.....the stress cannot even put into words.....went to helping people with katrina to losing everthing I owned with rita and needing help myself.....if I was older then don't know if my body could have handled that stress.....
Quoting 1055. cmckla:


It was a 5. NHC classified it as a 3 based soley on wind speed however as we know from the updated enhanced fujita scale the same principal needs to apply to the saffir simpson scale.

Katrina was a 5 based on:

Tidal surge
Death toll
Dollars of damage


What an interesting point, based on wind speed Katrina was a Cat 3. But with a 28 ft. surge, over 1K killed, and the most expensive cane ever; surely there is an argument Katrina was a Cat.5.
Quoting 1048. Tribucanes:
The El Reno tornado was far more amazing than most will ever know. Possibly the most powerful storm ever. Dozens of vorticies, many EF3+ and winds over 350mph and over three miles wide. SPC decided the public wasn't ready for that information.


Sharknado's anyone?.....LOL
1061. GatorWX
Quoting 1053. HimacaneBrees:
The MoSkeeters around my house are huge. I ain't even playing, I seen one with a tick on it.


El oh el. I haven't even seen them spraying here and nil. I'll take it.
Quoting 886. nrtiwlnvragn:


How can you say it is an intense MJO pulse when the MJO is currently still in the incoherent circle?





Velocity Potential may be strong, but that is a component of the MJO.


Its worth mentioning the "Incoherent circle" is completely arbitrary. Also, the weighting of each component and the components and filters which make up the Hendon and Wheeler index aren't perfect, there are other indices which better capture the MJO. Hendon and Wheeler's index has become the standard, however.

With that said, yea the MJO isn't intense, but it is clearly in the EPAC. The fact that we can see it in the EPAC makes it coherent to me.


The blob seems to doing well!!
Quoting 1055. cmckla:


It was a 5. NHC classified it as a 3 based soley on wind speed however as we know from the updated enhanced fujita scale the same principal needs to apply to the saffir simpson scale.

Katrina was a 5 based on:

Tidal surge
Death toll
Dollars of damage


You can't categorize a tropical storm based on death toll...imagine a meek tropical storm that causes massive floods in an undeveloped country like Haiti with hundreds of deaths..should that storm be a category 3 now? Same goes for damage..Should TS Allison be reconsidered?

I'll give you storm surge though.
1065. cmckla
Quoting 1059. Tribucanes:


What an interesting point, based on wind speed Katrina was a Cat 3. But with a 28 ft. surge, over 1K killed, and the most expensive cane ever; surely there is an argument Katrina was a Cat.5.


That is why we need an enhanced saffir simpson scale that takes into account death toll, dollars in damage, and storm surge along with the winds.
Quoting 1058. yoboi:


It is something overlooked.....I am thankful for being somewhat young 30's during 2005.....the stress cannot even put into words.....went to helping people with katrina to losing everthing I owned with rita and needing help myself.....if I was older then don't know if my body could have handled that stress.....


Like many here who assisted after Katrina, thank you.
1067. cmckla
Quoting 1064. wxgeek723:


You can't categorize a tropical storm based on death toll...imagine a meek tropical storm that causes massive floods in an undeveloped country like Haiti with hundreds of deaths..should that storm be a category 3 now?


Then you also classify tropical storms by issuing them a grade scale that takes into account rainfall, death toll, and dollars of damage.
1068. hydrus
Quoting 1053. HimacaneBrees:
The MoSkeeters around my house are huge. I ain't even playing, I seen one with a tick on it.
Yep..I had one land on me yesterday and lost my balance.
Quoting 1064. wxgeek723:


You can't categorize a tropical storm based on death toll...imagine a meek tropical storm that causes massive floods in an undeveloped country like Haiti with hundreds of deaths..should that storm be a category 3 now?


Ah, you highlight, the struggle to define a storm; very good point. Not easy is it?
Heavy Rain/Flash Flooding Possible For Southwest

Tropical Storm Ivo is expected to move along the west coast of Baja California over the weekend, where the official forecast weakens the storm. Moisture from the storm could move into the southwestern United States Sunday and Monday, potentially bringing heavy rain and flash floods.
Quoting 1055. cmckla:


It was a 5. NHC classified it as a 3 based soley on wind speed however as we know from the updated enhanced fujita scale the same principal needs to apply to the saffir simpson scale.

Katrina was a 5 based on:

Tidal surge
Death toll
Dollars of damage

Based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Katrina was a Category 3. It had the impacts of a Category 5, most notable its surge, but it was a 3 on the scale.
Quoting 1071. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Katrina was a Category 3. It had the impacts of a Category 5, most notable its surge, but it was a 3 on the scale.


And then you can be TA and have it both ways. :)
Quoting 1029. Tribucanes:


Ya the poor had little way out. The huge death toll was elderly with no support network over 60; that made up over 75% of fatalities.


Hopefully NOLA has a plan now.
I attended Hurricane Preparedness events for both our county and our township which is part of Houston's plan coverage.

One outcome of Katrina is that we have a system in place now for the elderly that don't drive and also those who are on their own with no support. The only requirement is they register by phone prior to any event so that provisions can be made.

The preparedness website is http://www.readyhoustontx.gov/

For those in the Houston area: If you have special needs, live in an evacuation zone and do not have friends or family to help you leave, register in advance for assisted transportation by dialing 2-1-1. https://www.211texas.org/211/


pouch...
1075. cmckla
Tropical Storm Grade Scale

Grade 1 O-5" rain; death toll <100
Grade 2 5-10" rain; death toll 100-500
Grade 3 10-15" rain; death toll 500-1000
Grade 4 15-20" rain; death toll 1000-1500
Grade 5 20"+ rain; death toll 1500+
Quoting 1073. dopplergirl:


Hopefully NOLA has a plan now.
I attended Hurricane Preparedness events for both our county and our township which is part of Houston's plan coverage.

One outcome of Katrina is that we have a system in place now for the elderly that don't drive and also those who are on their own with no support. The only requirement is they register by phone prior to any event so that provisions can be made.

The preparedness website is http://www.readyhoustontx.gov/

For those in the Houston area: If you have special needs, live in an evacuation zone and do not have friends or family to help you leave, register in advance for assisted transportation by dialing 2-1-1. https://www.211texas.org/211/


That's awesome!
1077. Patrap
1078. yoboi
Quoting 1073. dopplergirl:


Hopefully NOLA has a plan now.
I attended Hurricane Preparedness events for both our county and our township which is part of Houston's plan coverage.

One outcome of Katrina is that we have a system in place now for the elderly that don't drive and also those who are on their own with no support. The only requirement is they register by phone prior to any event so that provisions can be made.

The preparedness website is http://www.readyhoustontx.gov/

For those in the Houston area: If you have special needs, live in an evacuation zone and do not have friends or family to help you leave, register in advance for assisted transportation by dialing 2-1-1. https://www.211texas.org/211/


Nola did better with gustav....with gustav was the first time I seen all of coastal Louisiana evacuated from the mississippi state line to the texas state line.....then a week or so later swla had to do it all over again with IKE....
1079. cmckla
Quoting 1049. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Katrina made landfall as a Category 3 with winds of 125 mph.


Based on winds it was a 3. I give you that. But like I have been saying death toll and tidal surge it was a 5. The scale is biased.
1080. miamivu
Quoting 1071. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Katrina was a Category 3. It had the impacts of a Category 5, most notable its surge, but it was a 3 on the scale.

And barely a 3....right after the storm kinda "pooled" out on the west side...the media reported NOLA had dodged a bullet....winds only topped out gusting in the 80mph range...based on what the storm had been just a few days earlier...there was a collective sigh of relief. Then the levees broke...
Quoting 1055. cmckla:


It was a 5. NHC classified it as a 3 based soley on wind speed however as we know from the updated enhanced fujita scale the same principal needs to apply to the saffir simpson scale.

Katrina was a 5 based on:

Tidal surge
Death toll
Dollars of damage

There is no official scale that I know of that categorizes hurricanes by those factors, regardless of how well-intentioned or useful it may be. So simply saying "it was a 5" doesn't make it so.

Using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - the only scale used official in the U.S. - Hurricane Katrina was a category 3 at first landfall and weaker nearer to New Orleans/coastal Mississippi.
Quoting 1065. cmckla:


That is why we need an enhanced saffir simpson scale that takes into account death toll, dollars in damage, and storm surge along with the winds.

This really wouldn't be useful because it couldn't really be objective. Hurricanes hitting different countries, heck, even just different U.S. states, are bound to cause vastly different numbers of casualties and damages... even if it were exactly the same storm.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
============================

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression, Former Trami (998 hPa) located near 26.0N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.

A Low Pressure Area (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 134.0E is reported as moving west northwest slowly.
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Quoting 1065. cmckla:


That is why we need an enhanced saffir simpson scale that takes into account death toll, dollars in damage, and storm surge along with the winds.

Well it's call the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, it's only meant to categorize storms by how strong the winds are. The NHC usually does a decent job at highlighting the surge potential, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to try to make an experimental scale with wind and surge. Using death toll and dollar amounts is highly subjective as a weak TS can cause a lot of death and destruction in an underdeveloped country.
Quoting 1084. VAbeachhurricanes:
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New invest south of Hawaii.

CP, 93, 2013082400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1590W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

1087. cmckla
Quoting 1081. ScottLincoln:

There is no official scale that I know of that categorizes hurricanes by those factors, regardless of how well-intentioned or useful it may be. So simply saying "it was a 5" doesn't make it so.

Using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - the only scale used official in the U.S. - Hurricane Katrina was a category 3 at first landfall and weaker nearer to New Orleans/coastal Mississippi.


I backed my saying it was a 5 by death toll and surge. It is a biased scale and needs to be updated. 2005 season backs that one up.
1088. Patrap
The "Getting It Right" One Day Workshop

Posted by: Portlight, 11:34 AM CDT on August 23, 2013


Who: Disability Stakeholders and Emergency Management Agencies and Staff

What: The "Getting It Right" One Day Workshop

When: January 30, 2014

Where: The Francis Marion Hotel in Charleston, SC

Why: After the tremendous success of the Atlanta, GA "Getting It Right" conference, Portlight, Weather Underground and Braindance have decided to take the show on the road.



The Charleston One Day Workshop is the first in a series of one day follow up conferences which will enhance the impact of our efforts and reach more deeply into local communities. Representatives of local, state and federal emergency management agencies will be present, along with disability community leaders. Together we will work to create and nurture solutions to accessibility challenges.



Registration information will be available soon. Meanwhile...Please save the date!
1090. cmckla
Quoting 1085. wxchaser97:

Well it's call the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, it's only meant to categorize storms by how strong the winds are. The NHC usually does a decent job at highlighting the surge potential, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to try to make an experimental scale with wind and surge. Using death toll and dollar amounts is highly subjective as a weak TS can cause a lot of death and destruction in an underdeveloped country.


Then you come up with a grade scale like I have in earlier posts.
1091. Patrap
Video taken by Guerra Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.


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An area of thunderstorms about 800 miles south of Honolulu Hawaii is moving to the west around 15 mph. Convection has increased over the last few hours and satellite wind data indicates there is an associated low pressure center. Intensification of this feature over the next couple of days will be slow as the shear environment is not conducive for development.
Quoting 1087. cmckla:


I backed my saying it was a 5 by death toll and surge. It is a biased scale and needs to be updated. 2005 season backs that one up.


That's not a standardized statistic. A thing would that would make it biased...

How is a set of wind brackets that never change biased? That is the opposite of that word.
Quoting 1087. cmckla:I backed my saying it was a 5 by death toll and surge.

But that's just it - it's not. There is no scale that classifies hurricanes based upon death toll (for good reason, as mentioned above), nor surge.
Although an argument could be made that surge potential should be taken into account, it currently is not, and as such, your "5" rating is arbitrary and almost meaningless to everyone else.
Quoting 1090. cmckla:


Then you come up with a grade scale like I have in earlier posts.

I already did last year. :)
Quoting 1056. MTWX:


Had one try to carry my weiner dog away the other night!! The skeeters here are relentless!!! Even when you layer on 100% DEET!!


I've had a few land on me that felt like deer flies when they stuck that needle in my skin. They were more yellow/gray too, instead of black/white. I've never seen skeeters this big before.
Quoting 1079. cmckla:


Based on winds it was a 3. I give you that. But like I have been saying death toll and tidal surge it was a 5. The scale is biased.
The official scale the one everyone use says that Katrina have cat 3 winds in one period of her life was a 5 but at landfall was a 3.If we include deaths then I can say fifi was a 5 when it was only a 2 may be upgrade to cat 3 in post analysis though if winds demostrate it.
1099. cmckla
Quoting 1094. ScottLincoln:

But that's just it - it's not. There is no scale that classifies hurricanes based upon death toll (for good reason, as mentioned above), nor surge.
Although an argument could be made that surge potential should be taken into account, it currently is not, and as such, your "5" rating is arbitrary and almost meaningless to everyone else.


There are good reasons to come up with one that takes into account surge and death toll.

1) Accurate classifications of storms
2) Public knowledge for future year evacuation decisions
3) 2005 season
0z GFS forms a low in the BOC at 33 hours

Quoting 1099. cmckla:


There are good reasons to come up with one that takes into account surge and death toll.

1) Accurate classifications of storms
2) Public knowledge for future year evacuation decisions
3) 2005 season
That is not enough and why 2005 there have been more deadlier seasons than 2005 like 1998 or 1963.Surge may be add I give you that but the others nop.
Quoting 1099. cmckla:


There are good reasons to come up with one that takes into account surge and death toll.

1) Accurate classifications of storms
2) Public knowledge for future year evacuation decisions
3) 2005 season


You can't just say "2005" as a reason. Are you trying to tell me a 35mph tropical depression that kills 100 from rain is a stronger storm than a storm like Hurricane Isabel?
Renumber coming soon...

Lol.

Link

This is an interesting color loop of the wave train.


There are good reasons to come up with one that takes into account surge and death toll.

1) Accurate classifications of storms
2) Public knowledge for future year evacuation decisions
3) 2005 season


Storm surge became an important issue in the advisories after that season, if I remember.
36 hour MJO forecast. A time to shine for home grown storms.

1107. gator23
Quoting 1083. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Where was this kind of frank openess during Katrina? "There are buses going around to pick you up, you may need to find them but they're there" The police will not help you. You need to be preparing and taking responsibility". Too many promises were made in Katrina. Not enough honesty IMO.
1108. cmckla
Quoting 1101. allancalderini:
That is not enough and why 2005 there have been more deadlier seasons than 2005 like 1998 or 1963.Surge may be add I give you that but the others nop.


2005 was unlike no other season. It is a perfect year to sample an enhanced saffir simpson scale to include surge, death toll and damage cost.

While we are at it we also need to change start and end of the season to May 1 to December 15.
Quoting 1108. cmckla:


2005 was unlike no other season. It is a perfect year to sample an enhanced saffir simpson scale to include surge, death toll and damage cost.

While we are at it we also need to change start and end of the season to May 1 to December 15.



No... no we don't
1110. cmckla
Quoting 1102. VAbeachhurricanes:


You can't just say "2005" as a reason. Are you trying to tell me a 35mph tropical depression that kills 100 from rain is a stronger storm than a storm like Hurricane Isabel?


You classify TS using a grade scale.
Quoting 1108. cmckla:


2005 was unlike no other season. It is a perfect year to sample an enhanced saffir simpson scale to include surge, death toll and damage cost.

While we are at it we also need to change start and end of the season to May 1 to December 15.


why would an outlier year ever be the perfect sample ??
Quoting 1109. VAbeachhurricanes:



No... no we don't


Think this guy's a subtle troll, no need to waste your breath lol.

You only referenced Isabel because you went through it. :)

(Right?)
1113. centex
Who said disturbance not coming to Texas? I have issue with them.
Quoting 1091. Patrap:
Video taken by Guerra Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.

Amazing that the water level rose from the ground to the roof in 3 minutes.
1115. yoboi
Quoting 1111. whitewabit:


why would an outlier year ever be the perfect sample ??


Prepare for the worst hope for the best....
1116. Patrap
Quoting 1114. unknowncomic:
Amazing that the water level rose from the ground to the roof in 3 minutes.


Taking a wunderground member down that street tomorrow likely.
1117. cmckla
Quoting 1111. whitewabit:


why would an outlier year ever be the perfect sample ??


Because you need to start somewhere and 2005 had a lot of activity that by having an enhanced saffir simpson scale would have classified storms much different than the current one used today.

Why if they can change through studies and better data the fujita tornado scale we cannot apply the same to hurricane saffir simpson scale?
Quoting 1100. VAbeachhurricanes:
0z GFS forms a low in the BOC at 33 hours

Maybe TD 6.
1119. Patrap
Quoting 1087. cmckla:


I backed my saying it was a 5 by death toll and surge. It is a biased scale and needs to be updated. 2005 season backs that one up.


As you said, your scale is heavily biased and subjective, making it useless for any sort of scientific classification. The whole point of developing a standard is to make it objective, so when comparisons are done it can apples to apples and not apples to space ships.

Death toll and surge depend on how and where a storm hits. A cat 5 hitting in the middle of nowhere wouldn't even rank based on your system. A tropical storm hitting Haiti would wind up outranking that cat 5.

Now if you want to come up with scales of destruction, that's something completely different. But classifying a tropical system by it's damage doesn't make a whole of sense.
Quoting 1112. wxgeek723:


Think this guy's a subtle troll, no need to waste your breath lol.

You only referenced Isabel because you went through it. :)

(Right?)



Hahaha you caught me! :p
Quoting 1120. Xyrus2000:


As you said, your scale is heavily biased and subjective, making it useless for any sort of scientific classification. The whole point of developing a standard is to make it objective, so when comparisons are done it can apples to apples and not apples to space ships.

Death toll and surge depend on how and where a storm hits. A cat 5 hitting in the middle of nowhere wouldn't even rank based on your system. A tropical storm hitting Haiti would wind up outranking that cat 5.

Now if you want to come up with scales of destruction, that's something completely different. But classifying a tropical system by it's damage doesn't make a whole of sense.



They already have that its called the Hurricane Severity Index
1123. yoboi
Quoting 1091. Patrap:
Video taken by Guerra Family after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.




at 4.07 is that a deer on the roof of that house???
Quoting 1087. cmckla:


I backed my saying it was a 5 by death toll and surge. It is a biased scale and needs to be updated. 2005 season backs that one up.
Categories are defined by wind speeds and not total strength of storm. Better scale is needed, yes... but Katrina level surges isn't alway caused by Category 5 or the high amount of deaths is caused by Category 5. Camille was similar to Katrina and had stronger winds, but surge was little less and death tolls wasn't as high.
Hey nite crew....LOOKS like the models have backed off of anything forming over the next 7 days! Surprised, but NOT Surprised!
1127. pottery
The SS scale is a wind-speed scale.

There needs to be a Warning Scale for Hurricanes, that shows windspeed, surge, rainfall and overall threat based upon the area the storm will affect.

For example, Hurricanes created surge. But surge is a relative thing that varies immensely depending on coastal features, shore-line topography, waterways that enter the sea at that point, etc etc.
The same applies to rainfall and so on. Drainage potential, existing saturation, etc.

So, would it not make sense to list the Hurricane Warning as follows?...
Example...

Hurricane Sandy 2012
New York (list specific areas)
Winds, category 2
Rainfall, category 3
Surge, category 5
Overall potential threat, category 5.

I think people will respond to that far more, instead of saying that the approaching storm is a category 2, with 10' surge.
1128. cmckla
Quoting 1120. Xyrus2000:


As you said, your scale is heavily biased and subjective, making it useless for any sort of scientific classification. The whole point of developing a standard is to make it objective, so when comparisons are done it can apples to apples and not apples to space ships.

Death toll and surge depend on how and where a storm hits. A cat 5 hitting in the middle of nowhere wouldn't even rank based on your system. A tropical storm hitting Haiti would wind up outranking that cat 5.

Now if you want to come up with scales of destruction, that's something completely different. But classifying a tropical system by it's damage doesn't make a whole of sense.


You are upset that I raise a good point. And yes classifying a TS makes perfect sense as TS can and have caused more damage than a CAT 5 cane. Not wind or surge wise but rain, death toll in some instances, cost of damage.
Quoting 1128. cmckla:


You are upset that I raise a good point. And yes classifying a TS makes perfect sense as TS can and have caused more damage than a CAT 5 cane. Not wind or surge wise but rain, death toll in some instances, cost of damage.


But that has nothing to do with the storm itself...
1130. centex
If you post about trolls, I suspect you are a troll. Unfortunately violated my creed but hope it uncovers more of them.
A possible fujiwhara might take place in a few days in the EPAC.

Sandy is a bad example for exposing the limits of the Saffir Simpson Scale, as that was a very unique scenario that was beyond being just a hurricane. I do believe the scale could use some adjustments, though.
1135. cmckla
What ever happened to StormW? Why did he leave this blog?
1136. centex
Two troughs and wave, rain looking good for Texas Sun/Mon.

1137. cmckla
Quoting 1132. wxgeek723:
Sandy is a bad example for exposing the limits of the Saffir Simpson Scale, as that was a very unique scenario that was beyond being just a hurricane. I do believe the scale could use some adjustments, though.


Thank you. You may no agree with my adjustments to it however the concensus is it needs to be fixed.
Quoting 1135. cmckla:
What ever happened to StormW? Why did he leave this blog?


He left the same reason many on here stop coming! Kids took this thing over and had to criticize every post and say something about every post. GETS OLD real quick.
Quoting 1126. TampaSpin:
Hey nite crew....LOOKS like the models have backed off of anything forming over the next 7 days! Surprised, but NOT Surprised!


Can't really say they've backed off anything when they've never really developed anything within 7 days. Starting to see the ECMWF light up though.
1140. cmckla
Quoting 1138. TampaSpin:


He left the same reason many on here stop coming! Kids took this thing over and had to criticize every post and say something about every post. GETS OLD real quick.


It does and I re joined after leaving back in 2006 for the same reason. Thinking about doing it now. There are a lot in here who pick fights for the sake of picking fights.

BTW how long has he been gone.
Quoting 1138. TampaSpin:


He left the same reason many on here stop coming! Kids took this thing over and had to criticize every post and say something about every post. GETS OLD real quick.



no not really
he kinda took himself out
of his own free will
Quoting 1132. wxgeek723:
Sandy is a bad example for exposing the limits of the Saffir Simpson Scale, as that was a very unique scenario that was beyond being just a hurricane. I do believe the scale could use some adjustments, though.


I'd agree if Isaac, Irene, Igor, Alex, and Ike hadn't all done the same thing with having an incredibly low barometric pressure and a massive wind field without being a major hurricane.
1143. cmckla
Quoting 1141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



no not really
he kinda took himself out
of his own free will


Hope my question about StormW does not turn into a fight or bickerfest 3 2013. Was not my intentions.
GOM AOI is done, western Caribbean AOI is forming as we speak. Going up to 30-50% by tomorrow afternoon. No threat to the mainland. May even be TD/TS this time tomorrow.
Quoting 1142. CybrTeddy:


I'd agree if Isaac, Irene, Igor, Alex, and Ike hadn't all done the same thing with having an incredibly low barometric pressure and a massive wind field without being a major hurricane.


I'm talking more the nature of Sandy that would be hard to grade, THOSE storms definitely highlight the issue.

By the way Igor was indeed a major hurricane, lol.
Quoting 1141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



no not really
he kinda took himself out
of his own free will


That is very true too...Keeper
Quoting 1135. cmckla:
What ever happened to StormW? Why did he leave this blog?





He does have his own blog where he gives great tropical discussions.
Quoting 1146. TampaSpin:


That is very true too...Keeper


we all do that
at one time or another
key is not to fall victim
sometimes we forget the key
Quoting 1144. Tribucanes:
GOM AOI is done, western Caribbean AOI is forming as we speak. Going up to 30-50% by tomorrow afternoon. No threat to the mainland. May even be TD/TS this time tomorrow.


Not sure what you are seeing...there is no Vorticity at all at 850mb nor 700mb...NOTHING! No chance anything like a TD or TS by tomorrow! Sorry..but I just don't see that happening.
Quoting 1148. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we all do that
at one time or another
key is not to fall victim


I fall in the trap all the time...:)....then a good blogger will email me to calm down....we all need them....LOL
1153. Patrap
Tropical Wave over Central Africa may need to be monitored in the next couple of days for signs of development, it may try to acquire a low pressure before emerging into the Atlantic. Also, a low pressure has developed with Pouch 24L now associated with the monsoon trough will continue to track west towards the Central Atlantic will need to be watch for the potential for development down the road as some of the models develop it.



Quoting 1135. cmckla:
What ever happened to StormW? Why did he leave this blog?





He does have his own blog where he gives great tropical discussions.
1156. docrod
Quoting 1141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



no not really
he kinda took himself out
of his own free will


Not totally free.

Storm "sometimes" grated against the establishment here, I don't know how, I only know it happened - first hand knowledge. In my dealings with Storm I found him mostly a positive in this blog but ... well ... this is history.

It happened.

- take care.
Quoting 1147. lurkersince2008:





He does have his own blog where he gives great tropical discussions.


He post daily on my Facebook page posting his update.
1159. cmckla
Seriously I want to know who thinks we need to enhance the Saffir Simpson Scale and also create a Tropical Storm grading scale.

Quoting 1136. centex:
Two troughs and wave, rain looking good for Texas Sun/Mon.



Man, that High JUST popped up. I could feel it in my bones coming yesterday. Must Destroy. It will block EPAC moisture and our waves.
1161. bappit
Quoting 1081. ScottLincoln:
This really wouldn't be useful because it couldn't really be objective. Hurricanes hitting different countries, heck, even just different U.S. states, are bound to cause vastly different numbers of casualties and damages... even if it were exactly the same storm.

So having a scale that does not take into account differences due to time, duration, location, direction of landfall are flawed.

I'm really tired of hearing that "no major hurricane has struck the US in x years" because Sandy and Ike were major. I wish the Saffir-Simpson scale had not been invented. It is kind of like scoring points in fantasy football only the game is fantasy meteorology. Ignore the location, surge, etc. and then conclude whether a storm is major or not. Hah!
Quoting 1156. docrod:


Not totally free.

Storm "sometimes" grated against the establishment here, I don't know how, I only know it happened - first hand knowledge. In my dealings with Storm I found him mostly a positive in this blog but ... well ... this is history.

It happened.

- take care.



Last post about a fellow friend...but there is a lot more to the story him leaving than most would care to know.....Enough about this from me tho.
1163. docrod
Quoting 1157. TampaSpin:


He post daily on my Facebook page posting his update.


Here Here!!

- TampaSpin
1164. Patrap
Quoting 1159. cmckla:
Seriously I want to know who thinks we need to enhance the Saffir Simpson Scale and also create a Tropical Storm grading scale.




we have the first step Depression! Then we have a Storm....Yes the upper scale of a Tropical Storm can cause some damage. But, most people understand that a tropical Storm can do some damage...just the name of Storm does create fear. Then at 75mph we hit the Hurricane Status. Again there is a large difference from a Low end Cat 1 and a High end Cat 2 same as a Tropical Storm. I see no need of classifying any further and confusing people even more. Just my take on it.
GFS showing a tropical storm forming overland.



Quoting 1161. bappit:

So having a scale that does not take into account differences due to time, duration, location, direction of landfall are flawed.

I'm really tired of hearing that "no major hurricane has struck the US in x years" because Sandy and Ike were major. I wish the Saffir-Simpson scale had not been invented. It is kind of like scoring points in fantasy football only the game is fantasy meteorology. Ignore the location, surge, etc. and then conclude whether a storm is major or not. Hah!


People was warned a ton in both of those storms. It would not make any difference what scale you put up.....People will be idiots and ignore threats.
1168. Patrap


slowly picking up area off Africa has interesting pattern too the clouds
1170. docrod
Quoting 1166. GTstormChaserCaleb:
GFS showing a tropical storm forming overland.





Would I be safe in say ... Wyoming? ;>)
East Atlantic is warming up.

1172. cmckla
Quoting 1170. docrod:


Would I be safe in say ... Wyoming? ;>)


No you are close to morman land.
Quoting 1170. docrod:


Would I be safe in say ... Wyoming? ;>)
Yes you are safe in Wyoming. :P...I should have clarified the system would be over Mali at that point.
new video
GOM AOI is done, western Caribbean AOI is forming as we speak. Going up to 30-50% by tomorrow afternoon. No threat to the mainland. May even be TD/TS this time tomorrow.
Quoting 1151. TampaSpin:


Not sure what you are seeing...there is no Vorticity at all at 850mb nor 700mb...NOTHING! No chance anything like a TD or TS by tomorrow! Sorry..but I just don't see that happening.


That's right on Tampaspin. But just like convergence disappeared very quickly today with the GOM AOI, convergence and vorticity too can form very quickly. Conditions and current formation seem to favor that with the W. Caribbean AOI. But none of that can be known. We can but wait and see.
1176. sar2401
Quoting Chicklit:

I read a study on Katrina.
They prepared for Ivan.
I.E. people with cars were handled well and evacuated.
They didn't prepare for Katrina because that had not happened before.
Therefore, there was little or no communication with the folks that had no transportation of their own.
There was no plan for when communication went down in the city.
There was no place for people to go who stayed behind.
This will absolutely not happen again because it's already happened.
We're not prepared for what we haven't experienced yet.

I can't let this one pass by. New Orleans did not suffer the deaths it did because of the direct damage of hurricane. Most of the people who died in New Orleans did so from drowning, with a smaller number dying from dehydration, untreated illnesses, and few from criminal homicides. The Mississippi Gulf Coast took the full right front quadrant hit from Katrina, and suffered the highest winds and worst storm surge, yet had a death toll less than 15% of the numbers that died in and around New Orleans.

New Orleans suffered what it did because of failures in civil engineering and government neglect and incompetence. The civil engineering disaster was the failure of multiple levees as well as the Gulf Outlet ship canal. This possibility had been predicted as least 20 years before Katrina hit. Even if the money had been available, and the political will had been available to spend the money to shore up the levees instead of spending the money on other pet projects, it's doubtful the design, permitting, and construction would have been complete by 2005. Even with the no holds bared spending and construction that has taken place since 2005. the levees are still only theoretically capable of withstanding a cat 3 storm. Another Katrina type storm will hit, and some levees will fail again. The problem is that this is likely to happen 30, 40, or even 5 years from now, and everyone involved with the Katrina planning and response will either be long retired or dead. In 50 years, almost everything we learned in 2005 will be forgotten, and a new generation of politicians, engineers, and emergency managers will repeat many of the same mistakes.

In terms of government incompetence, the failures are almost too numerous to list.
As one example, the governor of Mississippi did a full activation of the National Guard on August 26, three days before the storm. The record is not clear of exactly when Governor Blanco of Louisiana activated the Guard, and, when she did, it was mostly engineer battalions, not military police and combat units. Mayor Nagin of New Orleans waited until 20 hours before landfall before ordering evacuations, even though study after study had shown that 48 hours was the minimum amount of time needed to complete an evacuation. The famous pictures of all the school buses under water happened not because there was no one to drive them, it happened because Governor Blanco refused to sign a waver allowing people with passenger car licenses to drive them. The school transportation managers refused to release the buses because they didn't want the liability. After they fled, at least three private citizens "stole" school buses, and drove over 200 hundred people (safely) out of the flooded areas.

Since New Orleans a slow motion disaster, Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin both believed that New Orleans was spared major damage. They reacted much too slowly as the magnitude of the disaster became apparent, and took too long to request federal troops. Mayor Nagin didn't even request help from the State Police until August 30, well after Katrina had made landfall. New Orleans as the bad fortune of having one of the most inept and corrupt police departments of any large city, and at least half never reported for duty. Once it was clear that large numbers of people were in New Orleans and trapped, the problem became one of logistics and law enforcement. Neither was adequately addressed until the arrival of Federal troops, the State police, and mutual aid from surrounding cities and states.

As long as New Orleans is saddled with weak levees, large numbers of people living below sea level, incompetent and corrupt city officials and employees, and a significant proportion of the population that has difficulties caring for itself in "normal" times, the only hope is for prompt Federal and mutual aid intervention at the earliest possible moment. Exactly the same thing will occur in New Orleans when the next Katrina-like storm hits because all the lessons will be forgotten, and those on the ground will have to learn all over again. I wish I could say it won't but, after 27 years in emergency services, I've seen it happen before in situations much less extreme than New Orleans.
1177. docrod
Quoting 1173. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yes you are safe in Wyoming. :P...I should have clarified the system would be over Mali at that point.


Sorry GT - I was teasing. I'm in the FL Keys and watch the telemetry, sats, and models like an iguana watches my mango tree. I had a good friend recently move to Wyoming from here.
- take care
Quoting 1159. cmckla:
Seriously I want to know who thinks we need to enhance the Saffir Simpson Scale and also create a Tropical Storm grading scale.



I think we have heard enough about your grading scale .. you are at the point of trolling and I would suggest you cease ..
Sar, that is a very very good synopsis of what happened during Katrina. Left out is the worst Federal response to any disaster ever in the history of our country.
Quoting 1166. GTstormChaserCaleb:
GFS showing a tropical storm forming overland.



that will never happern
Let us not forget what Barbara Bush said, "This is the best thing that could have ever happened to "those" people. This is not left nor right. If a disaster of this magnitude were to happen again, the federal government is not prepared to handle it. San Madras fault goes off tomorrow at 7 or more and it's instant replay all over again.
Quoting 1182. cmckla:


How dare you call me a troll. Just because I ask for an opinion you may not like you bow up and accuse me of something I am not. You sir do not even know me.

I am reporting you to the blog master for your gross use of power and assumptions.


I am the blog master ..

Governor declares emergency in San Francisco because of Yosemite fire’s effect on utilities

The wildfire outside Yosemite National Park — one of more than 50 major brush blazes burning across the western U.S. — more than tripled in size overnight and still threatens about 2,500 homes, hotels and camp buildings. Fire officials said the blaze burning in remote, steep terrain had grown to more than 84 square miles and was only 2 percent contained on Thursday, down from 5 percent a day earlier.


By Associated Press, Published: August 23 | Updated: Saturday, August 24, 12:48 AM

FRESNO, Calif. — A giant wildfire raging out of control grew to nearly 200 square miles and spread into Yosemite National Park on Friday, as California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for the city of San Francisco 150 miles away because of the threat to the city’s utilities.

...

The blaze did, however, pose a threat to the lines and stations that pipe power to the city of San Francisco, so Brown, who had declared an emergency for the fire area earlier in the week, made the unusual move of extending the emergency declaration to the city across the state.

San Francisco gets 85 percent of its water from the Yosemite-area Hetch Hetchy reservoir that is about 4 miles from the fire, though that had yet to be affected. But it was forced to shut down two of its three hydroelectric power stations in the area.
staring to see the tropical low!
From Bryan Norcross -

It's just after midnight on August 24th. For those of you that were in South Florida, 21 years ago tonight was a night you'll never forget... and, of course, it was the same for me. At this point, it was clear that Hurricane Andrew was going to be about as bad as any hurricane could be for the part of South Florida that would be hit. And it was clear it was going to happen in Dade County. We had predicted on the air that the winds would pick up around midnight, and that's what happened. That was the point that everyone needed to stay wherever they were and simply, though nothing was simple, ride it out.

Not long after midnight, I was wracking my brain trying to figure out what people could do in their homes to stay as safe as possible. That was when I remembered the book I had read some years before written by L.F. Reardon about his and his family's experiences in the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. He put his kids in a laundry washtub and put a mattress over them. That had never come to my mind after reading the book, but it came to my mind 21 years ago tonight. Thankfully many of your took that advice... and the mattress made all the difference.

It's hard to imagine, but the hurricane problem is worse today than it was in 1992. There are many more people with much bigger and more expensive property than existed 21 years ago... and our communications systems are much more precarious. In 1992, everybody had a transistor radio and, in spite of the incredible damage, many landline phones in South Dade were still working after the storm. Today, if the cell and internet service goes out, which it likely will in a major hurricane, most people will be stranded without any communications, in or out.

I'm hoping that Hurricane Andrew veterans will make it a mission to be sure that all of their friends and neighbors understand that the worst DOES happen. Encourage them to think ahead and be prepared. If you went through Andrew you know that how you prepare makes a tremendous difference. You can make a difference if you share that knowledge and experience.

For those of you that went through it in South Dade, it was a pivot. Life changed direction and was divided into Before Andrew and After Andrew. And it happened at 4:00 am, August 24, 1992... 21 years ago tonight.
Quoting 1182. cmckla:


How dare you call me a troll. Just because I ask for an opinion you may not like you bow up and accuse me of something I am not. You sir do not even know me.

I am reporting you to the blog master for your gross use of power and assumptions.


Whiterabbit has shown great patience in letting opinions be aired in the past weeks. He's just stating you've made your point and then again. He's a good monitor.
Quoting 1183. whitewabit:


I am the blog master ..


I got accidentally smoked last night in a troll crossfire. Probably same guy.

Jumped in to defend GT, and by proximity my screen informed me I was banned. Don't reply to the pond scum, stay well back while the mods fix the situation. Just minus.
1190. docrod
Quoting 1179. Tribucanes:
Sar, that is a very very good synopsis of what happened during Katrina. Left out is the worst Federal response to any disaster ever in the history of our country.


The response to Andrew in South Florida was also inadequate but not as huge as an embarrassment as Katrina. Between Andrew and Katrina, we had Georges which was very well managed in the FL Keys ... which is all I can personally speak for.
For those of you that went through it in South Dade, it was a pivot. Life changed direction and was divided into Before Andrew and After Andrew. And it happened at 4:00 am, August 24, 1992... 21 years ago tonight.

so true --- life has forever been about before and after. I remember vividly listening to Brian Norcross on the radio as the storm hit. We were in a tiny bathroom, 5 of us. You could feel the concrete floor vibrate with the wind.
Quoting 1167. TampaSpin:


People was warned a ton in both of those storms. It would not make any difference what scale you put up.....People will be idiots and ignore threats.


The poorest, hamstrung by ignorance, they didn't choose but were taught, and the elderly with no support, which they would have never chosen; had no way out during Katrina.
1194. docrod
Heading off to a parallel universe. Nite all.
1195. cmckla
Quoting 1189. redwagon:


I got accidentally smoked last night in a troll crossfire. Probably same guy.

Jumped in to defend GT, and by proximity my screen informed me I was banned. Don't reply to the pond scum, stay well back while the mods fix the situation. Just minus.


Never once talked to you or quoted you till now. I was not the one you talked to last night.

Please no assumptions.
Quoting 1166. GTstormChaserCaleb:
GFS showing a tropical storm forming overland.





Elena in 1985 formed its center over land in Cuba.
"It's hard to imagine, but the hurricane problem is worse today than it was in 1992."

I don't want to think what will happen if we see another Category 5 threaten the United States that that intensity. It will happen eventually...just hopefully no time soon. There are so many more people living along the coast of the United States, and there is so much more property along the shoreline. Adding insult to injury, the people living along the coast are largely complacent due to a) a record eight years without even a Category 3 hurricane landfall and b) 'media hype' if you want to call it that. 'Ahh, the media mentioned Katrina and all I got at my house in Louisiana was rain and some gusty winds. What a joke.' 'Ahh, Irene was forecast to devastate the Northeast USA and they got some rain and minor flooding' (which isn't true, Vermont was devastated).

The next one is going to hurt...bad.
Yosemite Wildfire Update: Fire Triples in Size; Idaho Vacation Destinations Threatened

SUN VALLEY, Idaho -- For rockers Huey Lewis and the News, smoke from the massive Sun Valley, Idaho, wildfire known as "the Beast" had band members who famously worried about the heart of rock and roll worrying about their lungs.

They canceled their show, as did the novelists, poets and journalists who convene in this vacation region each summer for a writer's convention. Meanwhile, squadrons of private aircraft whisked the affluent off to locales with cleaner air.

With its mountain backdrop, Sun Valley is normally a playground for the rich, the famous, for super-fit pursuers of outdoor sports or the Big Wood River's feisty brook trout. To many, it's heaven. But "the Beast" has caused disruptions in the sun-basking, fun-loving lifestyle, and the economy.

This is the worst I've seen it," said Brad Wood, who helps run a shop that rents bikes at the posh Sun Valley Lodge. Wood said he's sent four employees home until business picks up: On Thursday, only five of the 350 bikes they rent were out.

The blaze is among about 50 large fires burning nationwide.

A wildfire outside Yosemite National Park more than tripled in size Thursday, prompting officers to urge residents of nearly 300 homes in a gated community to begin a non-mandatory evacuation and leading scores of tourists to leave the area during peak season.

California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency as the fire grew to 99 square miles and was only 1 percent contained. Two homes and seven outbuildings have been destroyed. The park remains open.

Meanwhile, five wildfires have been burned about 18 square miles of mostly remote areas of Yellowstone National Park on the 25th anniversary of the infamous 1988 fires that burned more than 1,200 square miles inside Yellowstone, or more than a third of the park.
1199. Patrap
We will be turning her into the Wind on my mark Mr Chekhov.

Mark'


1200. sar2401
Quoting cmckla:
Seriously I want to know who thinks we need to enhance the Saffir Simpson Scale and also create a Tropical Storm grading scale.


I think the idea has some merit in terms of post-season changes and/or upgrades. It seems like a surge criteria would be a possibility, but even that isn't easy to predict. Issac was a good example. I don't think any model did well with the surge being much larger than the winds, pressure, and size would have warranted. Our current record with intensity prediction, which we still don't do a good job with, since the average error is one full category up to 24 hours before landfall, illustrates this type of problem. We have even less understanding of rapid intensification, why it happens, and under what conditions is becomes accurately predictable. Until we get that sorted out, I'm not so sure adding even more information which may be of doubtful accuracy will be of much help to the public.
The trough is gone



1202. sar2401
Quoting docrod:
Heading off to a parallel universe. Nite all.

Have a good time, Doc.-)
1203. Patrap
Quoting 1196. BaltimoreBrian:


Elena in 1985 formed its center over land in Cuba.


Bad seed, was in her at Long Beach/Gulfport..in 85...at the end of Pass Road.

Long cane, wicked howling back side came in after the eye went right over us.

Not my video but we saw the exact same thing 5-6 blocks from this spot .




Awesome.

Took 5 men to keep the double garage doors closed at one point.

Hairiest cane moment out of 6 retired names.
COFFEEE!!!!!!!!
Sar, I swear, if you make one more post I agree with, I'm going to lose it! :)
Quoting 1204. HimacaneBrees:
COFFEEE!!!!!!!!
I love coffee to
Quoting 1197. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"It's hard to imagine, but the hurricane problem is worse today than it was in 1992."

I don't want to think what will happen if we see another Category 5 threaten the United States that that intensity. It will happen eventually...just hopefully no time soon. There are so many more people living along the coast of the United States, and there is so much more property along the shoreline. Adding insult to injury, the people living along the coast are largely complacent due to a) a record eight years without even a Category 3 hurricane landfall and b) 'media hype' if you want to call it that. 'Ahh, the media mentioned Katrina and all I got at my house in Louisiana was rain and some gusty winds. What a joke.' 'Ahh, Irene was forecast to devastate the Northeast USA and they got some rain and minor flooding' (which isn't true, Vermont was devastated).

The next one is going to hurt...bad.
Unfortunately that time will come again, maybe not this year or next year, but a major will make landfall somewhere along the coast of the United States. The complacency is a real problem, especially for areas that haven't been hit in 50+ years and where old houses might exist. I live in a house that is about 30 years old, in fact the neighborhood I live in the houses here are old and I do not feel safe even from a Category 1 Hurricane. On top of that there are lots of trees in the neighborhood, huge oak tress, with mine you can see the roots already beginning to surface which means it may only take a hurricane force wind gust to topple it over and right into the house.
I suggest maybe posting a private blog to express your 1st amendment rights in regards to your question instead of pursuing too ask the same question over and over in here

and to be careful about how you speak as to prevent views to resemble personal attacks
1210. sar2401
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The trough is gone




Pretty amazing that the trough and blob both disappeared at about the same time. Both are a good illustration that too much land interaction with a weak storm will end up killing it. I'll be interested to see if both circles are also gone at 2:00. I don't remember a season where the NHC has put up AOI's on so many weak systems with no chance to develop. I don''t know if the criteria is that are close enough to land to take notice or what, but there seems to more than average this year.
1211. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Sar, I swear, if you make one more post I agree with, I'm going to lose it! :)

LOL. Sorry, Trib, it's just that you're getting older now and developing some sense. :-)
Quoting 1204. HimacaneBrees:
COFFEEE!!!!!!!!
No thank you, I actually want to sleep and not have to stare up at the ceiling the whole night. ;)
Quoting 1210. sar2401:

Pretty amazing that the trough and blob both disappeared at about the same time. Both are a good illustration that too much land interaction with a weak storm will end up killing it. I'll be interested to see if both circles are also gone at 2:00. I don't remember a season where the NHC has put up AOI's on so many weak systems with no chance to develop. I don''t know if the criteria is that are close enough to land to take notice or what, but there seems to more than average this year.


Yeah, I was thinking at least that circle will be gone. And our rain chances will probably go down too. Again. On the upper TX coast anyway. Same song different day.
1215. Patrap
Let's all jus remember why were here and where we parked, Okay ?

Grothar and I are going to this "Pat O'Brien's"
to see the Local Hurricane everyone is talking about.



TRMM caught IVO this afternoon. Heavy rains. Starting to get some height.

Quoting 1207. cmckla:


If he is a good monitor as you say then he would not make assumptions.


Try and not take it personally. You made a very good point and articulated it well. You blogged on it in multiple posts and it was debated nicely among many members. Whiterabbit allowed it all. I had a similar off topic political discussion/debate yesterday that Whiterabbit allowed. After it was aired, Whiterabbit said cool it. We all did. We all got your point, and I quite agreed in many aspects, but it had been hashed over. Let it go, fair is fair and we have to move on. Moderators have done a great job in letting divisive discussion go on as long as they are respectful.
Quoting 1213. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No thank you, I actually want to sleep and not have to stare up at the ceiling the whole night. ;)


I have 6 more hours to go and at least one more pot of coffee.
I see it was a good day to not be on the blog.
Anyway, according to Niño Regions 1+2 and 3.4 anomaly estimates, which are both sitting in the La Niña threshold, we may see a weak La Niña develop in September if this trend were to continue.
Not much else to comment on besides the Bipolar GFS that keeps trying to develop African waves as early as 8-10 days out, the other global models are also picking up on this uptick in activity and will have to be monitored.
Goodnight Everyone.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE WESTERN
GULF COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE WHILE
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY
TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN
NHC seems confident on another tropical cyclone developing in the eastern Pacific by middle of next week.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERING THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting 1214. AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, I was thinking at least that circle will be gone. And our rain chances will probably go down too. Again. On the upper TX coast anyway. Same song different day.


You've lost the faith? Please tell me you haven't. I know it's hard to hang on day after day, month, year but we have a better setup right now than we've had in a long time. Chin up, Sister! (love)
A little late night entertainment from Sir GFS and Madame CMC:





The CMC actually likes the low pressure accompanied by a tropical wave that is attached to the monsoon trough at 12N 27W.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


are these coming out earlier now a days or is it just me..
Invest 93C at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI AUG 23 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MOVED WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
PULSED IRREGULARLY...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF WIND DATA SUGGESTED
THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-PRESSURE CENTER. EXCESSIVE SHEAR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY PERMIT THIS FEATURE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AT
MOST. THE FEATURE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 112.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Quoting 1053. HimacaneBrees:
The MoSkeeters around my house are huge. I ain't even playing, I seen one with a tick on it.


Good trout bait!
Quoting 1222. redwagon:


You've lost the faith? Please tell me you haven't. I know it's hard to hang on day after day, month, year but we have a better setup right now than we've had in a long time. Chin up, Sister! (love)


Nah, haven't lost the faith completely. But a pep talk is nice. Thank you. :) And I agree that we aren't in the same set up as we have been the last few years. So there's hope.
1230. sar2401
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


are these coming out earlier now a days or is it just me..

They come out as much as an hour early this year when there's nothing happening. The 2:00 required dropping the Gulf to near 0% and changing a few words, so then it's off to sack out for a while. It's almost gotten to the point that, if it's not issued by 30 minutes to the hour, it practically late. No, I don't remember this happening in previous years. I more often remember that the outlook would be a little late so they could issue the outlook and discussion at the same time. I'm not sure what happened this year, except it's probably somehow related to the sequester. :-)
...
Quoting 1055. cmckla:


It was a 5. NHC classified it as a 3 based soley on wind speed however as we know from the updated enhanced fujita scale the same principal needs to apply to the saffir simpson scale.

Katrina was a 5 based on:

Tidal surge
Death toll
Dollars of damage

your incessant repetitive crap was getting old long ago. It was a Cat 3, period.

By your determination of death and destruction, you realize that was partially due to poor levees which in itself does not and never will have ability to raise it any category levels. Storms are not, and will never be, based on damage because of the variables with respect to the structures from location to location. It plain and simple. It happened with Andrew, Charley and every TS or Cane that hits Haiti.

As for storm surge, location of landfall make a huge difference in surge. The slope of the shelf varies in its angle and this will in turn have a major effect on the potential surge. You could have the same exact wind speed and pressure on a Cane land falling on the central Gulf Coast vs East Coast of Florida will give you a wide varying surge difference. in this scenario, you really think storms of equal figures (wind/pressure) should be classified as two different category levels. Wait, don't even answer that cause it NO.

They come out as much as an hour early this year when there's nothing happening. The 2:00 required dropping the Gulf to near 0% and changing a few words, so then it's off to sack out for a while. It's almost gotten to the point that, if it's not issued by 30 minutes to the hour, it practically late. No, I don't remember this happening in previous years. I more often remember that the outlook would be a little late so they could issue the outlook and discussion at the same time. I'm not sure what happened this year, except it's probably somehow related to the sequester. :-)


ah,

the changes in issuance time is not that bad, at least.
cmckla makes a valid point. Nothing he was blogging was really that bad. At worst, he made his point and refused to drop it. Whiterabbit calling his persistence trollish was off base, but Whiterabbit is entitled to his opinions too. No one was badly offended nor was the blog becoming negative due to what cmckla was blogging. But he had made his point times over, and Whiterabbit and Keeper had apparently tired of it; which is understandable. cmckla, sometime just forgiving and forgetting is the best recipe to a low stress life. More than enough to blog about; see all those storms in the Atlantic basin.....:)
Quoting 1232. hunkerdown:

your incessant repetitive crap was getting old long ago. It was a Cat 3, period.

By your determination of death and destruction, you realize that was partially due to poor levees which in itself does not and never will have ability to raise it any category levels. Storms are not, and will never be, based on damage because of the variables with respect to the structures from location to location. It plain and simple. It happened with Andrew, Charley and every TS or Cane that hits Haiti.

As for storm surge, location of landfall make a huge difference in surge. The slope of the shelf varies in its angle and this will in turn have a major effect on the potential surge. You could have the same exact wind speed and pressure on a Cane land falling on the central Gulf Coast vs East Coast of Florida will give you a wide varying surge difference. in this scenario, you really think storms of equal figures (wind/pressure) should be classified as two different category levels. Wait, don't even answer that cause it NO.


Well that's well said, and very hard to refute. A large cat3 hitting Miami and the same hitting NO would create far different surges.
Quoting 1228. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good trout bait!


I bet you're right!! Never tried to use a muhskeeter for fishing bait. The skeeters we have around here may pull the hook out, then stick it in you!!!!

It's safer to use shrimps for bait..
1237. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
A little late night entertainment from Sir GFS and Madame CMC:





The CMC actually likes the low pressure accompanied by a tropical wave that is attached to the monsoon trough at 12N 27W.


Those scamps at the GFS and CMC are still showing those lows of DOOM right next to the 1012 mb line - again. Seriously, it doesn't take aqn advanced degree to know that the pressure is extremely unlikely to fall from 1012 mbs to 987 mbs in about 100 nautical miles, It's even more unlikely this will happen for weeks running. I know they are way smarter than me (as certain bloggers will tell me in no uncertain terms), but I'd love to have a GFS hurricanologist guy explain these seemly bizarre charts to me.
Nite everyone....have a great early morning.


I bet you're right!! Never tried to use a muhskeeter for fishing bait. The skeeters we have around here may pull the hook out, then stick it in you!!!!

It's safer to use shrimps for bait..


O_o'

I am a little afraid.. or is there another term for "skeeters" beside the insects.
Quoting 1239. HadesGodWyvern:


O_o'

I am a little afraid.. or is there another term for "skeeters" beside the insects.



Well there are Skeeter Bass Boats....lol That's the only skeeter I know of other than of course the Mosquito's.
oh, okay.
1242. sar2401
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, I was thinking at least that circle will be gone. And our rain chances will probably go down too. Again. On the upper TX coast anyway. Same song different day.

Down to 0%. I think the NHC will keep the circle, even though it doesn't mean anything, in the unlikely chance that it will somehow turn into a tropical storm. That way they can say they kept any eye peeled all the way to shore, since it's already close to land.

I think your rain chance will improve next week, as a strong ridge builds just to the east of you and allows more Gulf moisture to get pumped up your way. Won't be a gullywasher, but you mind get an inch or so over the next three-four days. It's that kind of setup that's been keeping us in SE Alabama wet, so maybe it will start to work for you.
Quoting 1240. HimacaneBrees:



Well there are Skeeter Bass Boats....lol That's the only skeeter I know of other than of course the Mosquito's.


That's a 21ft. Skeeter in my avatar. :D
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 12N24W TO 8N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-32W.




Quoting 1237. sar2401:

Those scamps at the GFS and CMC are still showing those lows of DOOM right next to the 1012 mb line - again. Seriously, it doesn't take aqn advanced degree to know that the pressure is extremely unlikely to fall from 1012 mbs to 987 mbs in about 100 nautical miles, It's even more unlikely this will happen for weeks running. I know they are way smarter than me (as certain bloggers will tell me in no uncertain terms), but I'd love to have a GFS hurricanologist guy explain these seemly bizarre charts to me.
LOL :D
Quoting 1242. sar2401:

Down to 0%. I think the NHC will keep the circle, even though it doesn't mean anything, in the unlikely chance that it will somehow turn into a tropical storm. That way they can say they kept any eye peeled all the way to shore, since it's already close to land.

I think your rain chance will improve next week, as a strong ridge builds just to the east of you and allows more Gulf moisture to get pumped up your way. Won't be a gullywasher, but you mind get an inch or so over the next three-four days. It's that kind of setup that's been keeping us in SE Alabama wet, so maybe it will start to work for you.


Thanks Sar I hope so. :) If I'm reading these right we might be getting some rains in the Sep. Oct. Nov. time frame. Or NASA could be right.

1247. sar2401
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



Well there are Skeeter Bass Boats....lol That's the only skeeter I know of other than of course the Mosquito's.

We usually have skeeters here the size of B-29 bombers but, strangely, we've had way less than usual this year. We have standing water everywhere, not to mention a huge lake that is completely full, so one would think we should be overrun with the pest. The city does spray to kill them, but that's usually to keep them down to squadron size rather than a full air wing. One thing I did do this this year is change all my outdoor lighting to LED's, which don't attract bugs at all, so maybe that has something to do with it.
what!!
1249. Patrap
Published on Jun 20, 2012

Hurricane Isaac, Katrina etc. - New Orleans Renewal (Levees Rebuilt)- as part of the news series by GeoBeats.

The levees in New Orleans that were decimated by the effects of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, are finally in place.

The 113 mile long construction made up of levees, flood walls and pumps cost a reported 14 and a half billion dollars.

There are two fifty foot lift gates which allow boat access to the waterways and can be shut to block the water from a nearby lake, and 95 foot navigation gate with two sides weighing 220 tons each is in place to seal off a canal in case of hurricane conditions.

Hurricane Issac - New Orleans Renewal (Levees Rebuilt) - Katrina, which caused 81 billion dollars of damage, and almost two thousand deaths, proved the old system of levees was insufficient.

Initial construction on the project started in 2006 and engineers have vastly improved on the reconstructed walls to make them more resilient and effective against the inevitable storms that occur during hurricane season.

Allowing the immense project to move forward as quickly as possible, Congress voted to give all the funding in a lump sum rather than giving the money incrementally. Senior project manager Kevin G. Wagner told the New York Times, "It's truly amazing, starting in 2009, to be where we are today."

1250. Patrap
Published on Dec 12, 2012

From the creators of critically acclaimed Inside 9/11 comes another powerful journalistic account, Inside Hurricane Katrina. Go beyond the round-the-clock news coverage for a comprehensive look behind the devastation caused by nature's fury and human error. How did this happen? Can it happen again? Why weren't emergency personnel fully ready to respond to a real disaster? Using comprehensive analysis of events, hours of government audio tapes, and personal interviews, National Geographic takes viewers into the eye of Katrina to uncover the decisions and circumstances that determined the fate of the Gulf residents.

Special thanks to National Geographic TV for making an effort to bring this magnificent movie to us.
Also this is entertainment purposes only,no copyright infringement intended.

Knowing what happened, and how takes a lil over a Hour for the detailed view.





Quoting 1245. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL :D


Scamps

LOL
1252. sar2401
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks Sar I hope so. :) If I'm reading these right we might be getting some rains in the Sep. Oct. Nov. time frame. Or NASA could be right.


I never worry about more than seven days out. All those models just confuse me, and I know some, many, or all of them will be wrong. I just look at patterns. The SE in general has had a very wet summer. That's been about two months, and that's when patterns start to change. The logical change is to have ridges move further east over us, cutting us off from the Gulf flow but opening it up for you. I think the Death Ridge abated some in the late spring and it's time for it to do so again. Of course, we were in a seven year drought until this year, so sometimes those pattern changes take a little longer than others. :-)
1253. Levi32
Quoting 1237. sar2401:

Those scamps at the GFS and CMC are still showing those lows of DOOM right next to the 1012 mb line - again. Seriously, it doesn't take aqn advanced degree to know that the pressure is extremely unlikely to fall from 1012 mbs to 987 mbs in about 100 nautical miles, It's even more unlikely this will happen for weeks running. I know they are way smarter than me (as certain bloggers will tell me in no uncertain terms), but I'd love to have a GFS hurricanologist guy explain these seemly bizarre charts to me.


Every mature hurricane that has ever existed has had pressure gradients of 30+ millibars over 100 miles, easily. I'm not sure what's unusual about that.
Quoting 1243. AtHomeInTX:


That's a 21ft. Skeeter in my avatar. :D


Yeah I see that lol. They are beautiful boats. I just bought a new 20' 1" Nitro Z8 in February. Sold my old Skeeter, it had been a fantastic boat.
1255. Patrap
1256. Patrap
Quoting 1254. HimacaneBrees:


Yeah I see that lol. They are beautiful boats. I just bought a new 20' 1" Nitro Z8 in February.


Very nice! That one is my dad's. It's a 96 but looks brand new. He babies that thing. And for a man who doesn't like to reach even the speed limit on the highway, he sure has no problem laying the hammer down on that 200 Mercury. Lol. We have a 96 Dyna Trak. 17ft. It was well used when we bought it a couple years ago. It won't do 80 on the water. So we usually take the Skeeter. :)
1258. Patrap
Gotta baby them boats. My wife swears that I'm having an affair with mine.
Quoting 1257. AtHomeInTX:


Very nice! That one is my dad's. It's a 96 but looks brand new. He babies that thing. And for a man who doesn't like to reach even the speed limit on the highway, he sure has no problem laying the hammer down on that 200 Mercury. Lol. We have a 96 Dyna Trak. 17ft. It was well used when we bought it a couple years ago. It won't do 80 on the water. So we usually take the Skeeter. :)


Went out with my neighbor and his German Shepherds who has a cherry '76 Boston Whaler... I broke a rib what with jumping the wakes. That little number is *fast*.
1261. vis0
From now on the penalty for bad predictions is no longer eating Crow, but this...
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/08/22/article -2399959-1B545526000005DC-587_634x935.jpg



i predict 0-100 TS/0-100 Hurr/0-100 Cat3 or higher.
Quoting 1261. vis0:
From now on the penalty for bad predictions is no longer eating Crow, but this...
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/08/22/article -2399959-1B545526000005DC-587_634x935.jpg



i predict 0-100 TS/0-100 Hurr/0-100 Cat3 or higher.



Splash on some o' dat' looosiana hot sauce and some slap ya mama seasoning, and it'd be good yeah.
CP, 93, 2013082406, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1602W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
93C


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.5N 166.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2013 10.5N 166.5W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2013 10.6N 168.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2013 10.5N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2013 11.5N 172.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2013 12.3N 174.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2013 13.6N 176.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2013 14.4N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Post #1264

Do you know where you got this from?
Quoting 1260. redwagon:


Went out with my neighbor and his German Shepherds who has a cherry '76 Boston Whaler... I broke a rib what with jumping the wakes. That little number is *fast*.


Ouch! Had my own boating day from you know where in our boat. Lake Sam Rayburn gets crazy rough at times and we had a stretch of main lake between us and the boat ramp. We barely had enough power and boat to get over the waves. I went air borne at one point he jerked me back down before I flew completely out. Boat was full of water, I was full of water. Next time I tell him to bank the boat and wait it out he better listen! lol
Civican

Link
Quoting 1267. HadesGodWyvern:
Civican

Link


Thanks for the link.
you're welcome.
Quoting 1262. HimacaneBrees:



Splash on some o' dat' looosiana hot sauce and some slap ya mama seasoning, and it'd be good yeah.


Lol. And here I was thinking boy, I sure hope he doesn't see my predictions. :)
Quoting 1266. AtHomeInTX:


Ouch! Had my own boating day from you know where in our boat. Lake Sam Rayburn gets crazy rough at times and we had a stretch of main lake between us and the boat ramp. We barely had enough power and boat to get over the waves. I went air borne at one point he jerked me back down before I flew completely out. Boat was full of water, I was full of water. Next time I tell him to bank the boat and wait it out he better listen! lol




Let's get it on!
Quoting 1271. redwagon:




Let's get it on!


That's the spirit! :) With all that you'd think we'd get something. Lake Charles gives us a pretty good chance. So I'm hopeful.



1273. Patrap
Fukushima leak is 'much worse than we were led to believe'
Matt McGrath
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, BBC News


A nuclear expert has told the BBC that he believes the current water leaks at Fukushima are much worse than the authorities have stated.

Mycle Schneider is an independent consultant who has previously advised the French and German governments.

He says water is leaking out all over the site and there are no accurate figures for radiation levels.

Meanwhile the chairman of Japan's nuclear authority said that he feared there would be further leaks.

The ongoing problems at the Fukushima plant increased in recent days when the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) admitted that around 300 tonnes of highly radioactive water had leaked from a storage tank on the site.

Moment of crisis
The Japanese nuclear energy watchdog raised the incident level from one to three on the international scale that measures the severity of atomic accidents.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote

It is leaking out from the basements, it is leaking out from the cracks all over the place”

Mycle Schneider
Nuclear consultant
This was an acknowledgement that the power station was in its greatest crisis since the reactors melted down after the tsunami in 2011.

But some nuclear experts are concerned that the problem is a good deal worse than either Tepco or the Japanese government are willing to admit.

They are worried about the enormous quantities of water, used to cool the reactor cores, which are now being stored on site.

Some 1,000 tanks have been built to hold the water. But these are believed to be at around 85% of their capacity and every day an extra 400 tonnes of water are being added.

"The quantities of water they are dealing with are absolutely gigantic," said Mycle Schneider, who has consulted widely for a variety of organisations and countries on nuclear issues.

"What is the worse is the water leakage everywhere else - not just from the tanks. It is leaking out from the basements, it is leaking out from the cracks all over the place. Nobody can measure that.
Not bad...

It storming like crazy out here right now. We are rocking. I was about to go outside for a few but the rain is blowing side ways
1276. Patrap
1277. VR46L
Quoting 1271. redwagon:




Let's get it on!


Why am I hearing Marvin Gaye .... LOL !!!

Only Messing :)

Looks like the North West Gulf might finally get some rain !



Not weather related but this right here gets on the fighting side of me. Punks. Just little punks with no respect for anyone. I'm gonna quit before I get a ban.

Link


nevermind here it is the link isn't working

news.yahoo.com/random-attack-spokane-leaves-wwii- veteran-dead-144713677.html
1279. Patrap
I served n the USMC in Okinawa, and my deceased Father Fought there in The USMC in 45 as a 105 Gunner and FO.

No words can convey my thoughts on this tragedy,
1280. Patrap
If you can take the time, the best tribute to that lost Veteran,,is to read the Battle for Sugar Loaf Hill with the 6th Marines against the Japanese on Okinawa..as well as the Battle for Shuri Castle and Yontan Airfield.

Casualties and losses

12,513 killed

38,916 wounded,

33,096 non-combat losses

Total: 84,570 About 95,000+ killed

7,400–10,755 captured

Total: 105,755+

Estimated 42,000–150,000 civilians killed
Oorah!!!! Many thanks to you and your father.

And there aren't words or a stiff enough punishment.

1282. Patrap
Semper Fi





I have all the time in the world when it comes to reading about history like that. Thank you. I will find it. Maybe if more people were willing to learn about what other folks have gone through for them, then it just might make an impression.
1284. Patrap
Service to America was a distinct Honor and privilege.

1285. Patrap
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 112.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF IVO HAS EVOLVED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING.
GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. IVO IS MOVING OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND IT SHOULD BE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NARROWING...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 20C AND IN A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

IVO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND HAS SPED
UP SOME...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 345/12. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT SLOW
DOWN IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE BECOMES
SHALLOW AND IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 22.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 23.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 25.3N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 26.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0600Z 27.6N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 28.3N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
Good Morning Class!
1290. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is perked..........
1291. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG
WINDS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE RISING AND FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

1292. LargoFl
Quoting 1289. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning Class!
good morning Joe..from reading the nws statement seems the storm has moved a bit westward..i wonder if now some rain would be reaching you too in a few days..
1293. vis0
N. Atlantic (basin ) trop. Season is June 1st - Nov 31st. Whats the official cut off date for categorizing TS as 2013 storms if they occur after Nov 31st? The Gregorian year or half way between Nov 31 towards June 1st (i.e. Feb 28th?) or some other date.
good.morning..boc.next.chance
1295. LargoFl
1296. LargoFl
Quoting 1292. LargoFl:
good morning Joe..from reading the nws statement seems the storm has moved a bit westward..i wonder if now some rain would be reaching you too in a few days..


Mornig Largo...I havent looked at the latest discussion yet......models hemming and hawwing from into California to Arizona to dissipation sw of San Diego......i am so pulling for some downpours
Nice surface map Largo
Quoting 1203. Patrap:


Bad seed, was in her at Long Beach/Gulfport..in 85...at the end of Pass Road.

Long cane, wicked howling back side came in after the eye went right over us.

Not my video but we saw the exact same thing 5-6 blocks from this spot .




Awesome.

Took 5 men to keep the double garage doors closed at one point.

Hairiest cane moment out of 6 retired names.
This struck me as a "where were you at this very moment"....moments. Thought you would find this interesting although you may be asleep right now but I was in Parris Island at the very moment the video was being taken. As you can imagine I had no idea what was going on in the outside world.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND WARM THROUGH SATURDAY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS SAT AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL MOVE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA....POTENTIALLY BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
OVER AND E OF THE MTNS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS W OF
THE MTNS. DRIER AND WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.


THE REAL FUN HAPPENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM IVO MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA.
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND FAR SW ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING 2.5
INCHES. MEANWHILE...OVER SAN DIEGO AND PARTS OF RIVERSIDE
COUNTY...PW WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL...WE WILL BE ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70-80 KT JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING EXPECT BETWEEN
ONE-HALF TO ONE-INCH IN THE RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS EAST OF LAKE ARROWHEAD...AND THE LOW
DESERTS...ONE-QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
MOUNTAINS WEST OF LAKE ARROWHEAD AND THE HIGH DESERTS...AND LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEYS/COASTAL AREAS. MUCH HIGH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

MOISTURE DECREASES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. OTHERWISE WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD WITH TEMPS NEARLY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE BAJA COAST.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND THEREFORE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN CA. FOR
NOW WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS
AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
Good morning to all.

Here is the 00z ECMWF that has a low pressure NE of Leewards. With the MJO arriving at the Atlantic basin,I would expect more developments from the models than what they are showing.


Quoting 1293. vis0:
N. Atlantic (basin ) trop. Season is June 1st - Nov 31st. Whats the official cut off date for categorizing TS as 2013 storms if they occur after Nov 31st? The Gregorian year or half way between Nov 31 towards June 1st (i.e. Feb 28th?) or some other date.


Well first off only 30 days in Nov...lol...
A Mid December will continue using the names from earlier in the year.
A storm forming in January will use the name from the following year's list and continue to do so through the end of the calendar year.
Hope this answers your question.
1303. LargoFl
Quoting 1297. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Mornig Largo...I havent looked at the latest discussion yet......models hemming and hawwing from into California to Arizona to dissipation sw of San Diego......i am so pulling for some downpours
i think you will probably get some..good luck.
1304. LargoFl
1305. LargoFl
1306. LargoFl
Good morning. The 6z GFS has taken a liking too one of the waves that has or will come off Africa. It develops at low latitude in between Africa and the Caribbean in 8 days or so. It doesn't strengthen a lot to start due to heavy land interaction but here is the end result at 372 hours:

1308. SLU
That's more like it

Quoting 1308. SLU:
That's more like it



Well,from almost nothing at 00z to this. Let's see more consistency from now on as MJO arrives.
1310. SLU
Quoting 1309. Tropicsweatherpr:


Well,from almost nothing at 00z to this. Let's see more consistency from now on as MJO arrives.


The GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC all show MDR development but they don't develop the same waves nor are the timeframes precise.
1311. GatorWX
Morning all!

How about #1308 Largo :)
1312. GatorWX
1313. GetReal





Nice ball of convection is forming SSW of Grand Isle, La. SE TX may very well get some much needed rain from this system, but we're going to get drenched today here in NOLA.
1314. WxLogic
Good Morning
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 degrees with a dew point of 71, a bit humid out there. There's a 20% chance of rain, but it always says that lately and nothing here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, egg and sausage casserole, egg and sausage casserole, Low Fat Shrimp and Swiss Omelet made with egg whites, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Good morning everyone...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N23W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N25W TO 8N25W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 16N58W
TO 8N60W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 23N91W TO
BEYOND S GUATEMALA AT 13N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE ON
SSMI IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 80W-90W.

1317. GatorWX
Quite a bit more north. Decent plume though.

1318. GatorWX
And overall, dry! We should come up with a superhero name for the MJO and refer to it as such. Seems like the mdr needs a superhero this year.

Can someone explain to me why the NHC keeps something circled when it states there is a 0% chance of it to develop? That makes absolutely no sense. People are going to stop even paying attention if they keep doing this. The other one basically is amounting to nothing as well. Maybe if they circle an area that can will it into existence. Duh.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNLIKELY BEFORE THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST BY
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...
AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Spectacular shot, taken by Mike Theiss, #MikeTheiss in Florida recently!
Quoting 1319. LAsurvivor:
Can someone explain to me why the NHC keeps something circled when it states there is a 0% chance of it to develop? That makes absolutely no sense. People are going to stop even paying attention if they keep doing this. The other one basically is amounting to nothing as well. Maybe if they circle an area that can will it into existence. Duh.
This question is asked over and over every time there is a 0% AOI, and the answer is the same every time: because the NHC wants to make it known that they're watching every particular area of disturbed weather. And for planning purposes, there's just as great a value in knowing something won't develop as thinking something might.
1323. LargoFl
Quoting 1322. Neapolitan:
This question is asked over and over every time there is a 0% AOI, and the answer is the same every time: because the NHC wants to make it known that they're watching every particular area of disturbed weather. And for planning purposes, there's just as great a value in knowing something won't develop as thinking something might.
and also letting people know the system is tropical,so the thunderstorms can be stronger..boy we sure know that in florida dont we..
1325. LargoFl
Quoting 1311. GatorWX:
Morning all!

How about #1308 Largo :)
yes i saw that..we'll see what happens
I wouldn't stop watching the Northern GOM blob yet despite the 0% TWO development chance; Maps still show moderate 500 and 700mb vorticities and a weak (but rebuilding) 850mb vorticity, and all of these three are almost perfectly stacked just south of New Orleans. Conditions being what they are, it might surprise us today while DMAX is there to help it along. The chances are low, but never turn your back on the GOM.
1327. LargoFl
Quoting 1307. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The 6z GFS has taken a liking too one of the waves that has or will come off Africa. It develops at low latitude in between Africa and the Caribbean in 8 days or so. It doesn't strengthen a lot to start due to heavy land interaction but here is the end result at 372 hours:

Looks like.we around tampa bay area will feel something around that time but right now its still in fantasy land..around Labor day or so if thats still the gfs's view we may well have something to get ready for huh..
1328. yoboi
Quoting 1322. Neapolitan:
This question is asked over and over every time there is a 0% AOI, and the answer is the same every time: because the NHC wants to make it known that they're watching every particular area of disturbed weather. And for planning purposes, there's just as great a value in knowing something won't develop as thinking something might.


Neap I disagree...AOI should have some % instead of 0% seems the NHC would have learned their lesson after the Humberto forecast....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

2. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE WHEN THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...
AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

up to 20%
Looking at 00Z model data, it appears that P25L may be the real deal.


1331. LargoFl
well the 7-day for the tampa bay area says more rains possible whew..
A TC passing just south of me is better than one passing just north xD I love the N quadrant lol... but only if it's not a MAJOR.
Quoting 1328. yoboi:


Neap I disagree...AOI should have some % instead of 0% seems the NHC would have learned their lesson after the Humberto forecast....
Again: for planning purposes, there's just as great a value in knowing something won't develop as thinking something might.
1334. LargoFl
well IF this does happen,lets hope for only a TS.....
Quoting 1330. nrtiwlnvragn:
Looking at 00Z model data, it appears that P25L may be the real deal.


I think if you have to go 2-weeks into the future to find something of interest,I would say this blog is a new version of the HUNGER GAMES
Quoting 1334. LargoFl:
well IF this does happen,lets hope for only a TS.....
wow its been very consisted about dat track
1337. LargoFl
looks like it will mess with south florida then slip thru the straights and then up the west coast of florida..
1338. LargoFl
Quoting 1336. bigwes6844:
wow its been very consisted about dat track
yes indeed..in a week i want to see if gfs still has it..right now its fantasy land..but september is a very dangerous month for storms.
1339. GatorWX
Quoting 1325. LargoFl:
yes i saw that..we'll see what happens


Quite a ways out, just found it to be in an interesting locale. I think long range precip rate models are more useful in this respect until there's actually something there. Fun to look at though as it arouses the mind.
Quoting 1335. victoria780:
I think if you have to go 2-weeks into the future to find something of interest,I would say this blog is a new version of the HUNGER GAMES


I would say you did not look at the data from the link, since Pouch data only goes out 5 days.


1341. GatorWX
Quoting 1334. LargoFl:
well IF this does happen,lets hope for only a TS.....


Hehe
Quoting 1197. TropicalAnalystwx13:
'Ahh, Irene was forecast to devastate the Northeast USA and they got some rain and minor flooding' (which isn't true, Vermont was devastated).

The next one is going to hurt...bad.


Too many people think if it didn't hit New York City it didn't matter. Yes, we have a small population, but we are still rebuilding after Irene, and she wasn't even a hurricane up here, by a long stretch.

Old timers everywhere, though, have long memories. Too bad the newcomers don't listen. Around here plenty of folks still remember '38, and if they don't remember it themselves, the land remembers: "This was all sugarbush until '38" is still true of a lot of fields around here, and the farmers remember.

The reporting (not the forecasting as much) is a problem too. In the week up to Irene all the forecasters were saying over and over "this will be a flooding event for Vermont. This will be a flooding event for Vermont" but too many people were listening to certain media hype about "hurricane" and thinking wind, and when it wasn't too windy were blowing off the storm. Even far from storm surges, the power of water is often far greater than the power of wind.
1343. GatorWX
Quoting 1330. nrtiwlnvragn:
Looking at 00Z model data, it appears that P25L may be the real deal.




I saw a model run GT posted yesterday showing 989 pressure just west of cv's, like 100 miles or so. Obviously it was placing bets on a strong wave coming off. Seems there has been a window in that area despite sal between the coast and say 30-35w. Then, as was the case with Erin, b-bye. As I posted earlier, sal sitting quite a bit higher presently.
1344. yoboi
Quoting 1333. Neapolitan:
Again: for planning purposes, there's just as great a value in knowing something won't develop as thinking something might.


Keep on thinking the NHC IS and ALWAYS will be 100% accurate with their forecast!!!!!
Quoting 1318. GatorWX:
And overall, dry! We should come up with a superhero name for the MJO and refer to it as such. Seems like the mdr needs a superhero this year.



Aquaman is a good analog but he's the worst hero ever.

The 2013 Saharan Dust season has been highly active.
Quoting 1343. GatorWX:


I saw a model run GT posted yesterday showing 989 pressure just west of cv's, like 100 miles or so. Obviously it was placing bets on a strong wave coming off. Seems there has been a window in that area despite sal between the coast and say 30-35w. Then, as was the case with Erin, b-bye. As I posted earlier, sal sitting quite a bit higher presently.


I noticed that almost all models show something, even the ECMWF:


1347. GatorWX
Irene was vermont's Floyd as I saw it. The southern tier of NY and northern PA were also affected pretty bad. I had spent the summer up near Binghamton two summers prior and made some friends up there that relayed a lot of what was going on locally back to me. Tropical systems do bad things in mountainous areas.
I noticed that almost all models show something, even the ECMWF:


'Tis the season!
impressive surge of moisture moving west in the gulf
Quoting 1319. LAsurvivor:
Can someone explain to me why the NHC keeps something circled when it states there is a 0% chance of it to develop? That makes absolutely no sense. People are going to stop even paying attention if they keep doing this. The other one basically is amounting to nothing as well. Maybe if they circle an area that can will it into existence. Duh.


The key word is "near". Near 0% doesn't mean 0%.
1351. GatorWX
I still don't know if I trust much happening in the heart of the mdr, cv storms. Maybe nearer to the islands. Time will tell, but the central Atlantic is and has been extremely dry and stable. Last time the mjo forecast showed a strong pulse, not much happened. I remember when the epac started to heat up again roughly 3 wks ago, we thought here it comes (mjo) and it never quite transitioned over. Time is a valuable things and it's persistent. We'll see! I'd like to see something out there. This is my summer job, don't pay well though. :)
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
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040
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0000
201308241214
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013082412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013082412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 893W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

1353. GatorWX
They use intervals of ten, 1-9 are not used, so to say near 0 does not mean absolute zero.
1354. LargoFl
1355. SLU
Quoting 1352. Tropicsweatherpr:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308241214
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013082412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013082412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 893W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



That's over land ....
1356. GatorWX
Quoting 1350. SomersetSquall:


The key word is "near". Near 0% doesn't mean 0%.


Bingo
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF IVO HAS EVOLVED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING.
GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. IVO IS MOVING OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND IT SHOULD BE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NARROWING...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 20C AND IN A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

IVO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND HAS SPED
UP SOME...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 345/12. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A
PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT SLOW
DOWN IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE BECOMES
SHALLOW AND IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
we have invest 95L ON land!!
Quoting 1355. SLU:


That's over land ....

If it can emerge over the Bay of Campeche it could spin up quickly like Barry, might not be stregthen as much, but the topography there aids in quick spinups.
Quoting 1322. Neapolitan:
This question is asked over and over every time there is a 0% AOI, and the answer is the same every time: because the NHC wants to make it known that they're watching every particular area of disturbed weather. And for planning purposes, there's just as great a value in knowing something won't develop as thinking something might.


Competrly agree that it is just as important to inform the public that an AOI is not going to develop versus it has the potential to develop.
1361. K8eCane
Quoting 1360. clwstmchasr:


Competrly agree that it is just as important to inform the public that an AOI is not going to develop versus it has the potential to develop.



Maybe its NHCs way of saying "Weve got our eye on it"
1363. K8eCane
Quoting 1361. K8eCane:



Maybe its NHCs way of saying "Weve got our eye on it"


Although, in truth, they've got their eye on all of it. Maybe its just reminder that they do
1364. GatorWX
1365. K8eCane
Quoting 1364. GatorWX:


Looks like it could cruise the coast on over to Texas. I hope so.
All that training rain will cause flooding for some villages and citys
GFS at 348 hours (lol). Don't let the wishcasters see this.
1369. Grothar
There is a near 0% chance some bloggers will not ask the same questions and be given the correct answers and won't remember them.

There is a near 0% chance some bloggers will not embarrass themselves today.


Global Hawk off to meet SAL






Aircraft: Global Hawk AV6 (NASA872)
Last Update (utc): 2013-08-24T12:54:23Z
Last Update Delta: (About 15 seconds ago)
Latitude: 36.255 (36° 15' 18.35")
Longitude: -65.556 (65° 33' 20.88")
Pressure Altitude (ft): 54883.80 (16728.58 m)
Heading (deg): 105.80
Ground Speed (kts): 343.67
Total Temperature (c): -46.20 (226.95 k)
1371. GatorWX
Quoting 1365. K8eCane:


Looks like it could cruise the coast on over to Texas. I hope so.


Hoping....
Quoting 1307. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The 6z GFS has taken a liking too one of the waves that has or will come off Africa. It develops at low latitude in between Africa and the Caribbean in 8 days or so. It doesn't strengthen a lot to start due to heavy land interaction but here is the end result at 372 hours:



Anything that develops as far west and south as the GFS is showing will probably end up being a threat to at least the islands.
Good Morning!

Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am unable to post the usual GM pics. Instead, here's one from the archive, our first day with Dexter. He was about 6 months old then...



Total of 0.02" of rain yesterday. Have a great day everyone!
1374. GatorWX
Quoting 1370. nrtiwlnvragn:
Global Hawk off to meet SAL






Aircraft: Global Hawk AV6 (NASA872)
Last Update (utc): 2013-08-24T12:54:23Z
Last Update Delta: (About 15 seconds ago)
Latitude: 36.255 (36° 15' 18.35")
Longitude: -65.556 (65° 33' 20.88")
Pressure Altitude (ft): 54883.80 (16728.58 m)
Heading (deg): 105.80
Ground Speed (kts): 343.67
Total Temperature (c): -46.20 (226.95 k)


That thing can travel that distance?
1375. K8eCane
Quoting 1373. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

Due to circumstances beyond my control, I am unable to post the usual GM pics. Instead, here's one from the archive, our first day with Dexter. He was about 6 months old then...



Total of 0.02" of rain yesterday. Have a great day everyone!



Dexter!!!!

Dexter had a stomping good time. Look at all the paw prints around him
GFS at 189 hours - you can see the low approaching the Islands. That's the system that hits Florida at 300+ hours.
1377. GatorWX
Quoting 1372. CybrTeddy:


Anything that develops as far west and south as the GFS is showing will probably end up being a threat to at least the islands.


Low rider drives a little slower
Low rider is a real goer

These concern me.
1378. SLU
Quoting 1359. sporteguy03:

If it can emerge over the Bay of Campeche it could spin up quickly like Barry, might not be stregthen as much, but the topography there aids in quick spinups.


Yeah the GFS shows something happening in the BoC also.
Quoting 1374. GatorWX:


That thing can travel that distance?








From this Presentation
It is late August. NHC not very impressed with GOM. Season is a total bust..........So far Nothing realistic in the models time frame. 300 plus hours is Middle Earth. Entertaining but not real.

We have all seen things change fast.

I have been researching this. It seams as if the season is MOVING.

Not really starting until August and Really ending in Dec.

If nothing by Sept 24 I will call the entire season a bust.

Went fishing yesterday. I don't believe the water temp charts. All three boats tacked out at 87F. To a depth of 400 feet with a 2 degree thermocline at 400. Still 85F. A full two degrees over the chart. This was verified by our boats and the other 50 fishing the break!
1381. GatorWX
Quoting 1379. nrtiwlnvragn:








From this Presentation


Wow. Never knew that. That's a long ways for an rc plane. Impressive.
1382. GatorWX
nrt,

All I have is my phone, so couldn't view link. AT&T has put the kabosh on my daa speeds. Not happy! I don't have any wifi at my house. Makes studying the tropics a bit challenging.
Quoting 1382. GatorWX:
nrt,

All I have is my phone, so couldn't view link. AT&T has put the kabosh on my daa speeds. Not happy! I don't have any wifi at my house. Makes studying the tropics a bit challenging.


I saved it as a PDF it is very good.
Quoting 1380. Autistic2:
It is late August. NHC not very impressed with GOM. Season is a total bust..........So far Nothing realistic in the models time frame. 300 plus hours is Middle Earth. Entertaining but not real.

We have all seen things change fast.

I have been researching this. It seams as if the season is MOVING.

Not really starting until August and Really ending in Dec.

If nothing by Sept 24 I will call the entire season a bust.

Went fishing yesterday. I don't believe the water temp charts. All three boats tacked out at 87F. To a depth of 400 feet with a 2 degree thermocline at 400. Still 85F. A full two degrees over the chart. This was verified by our boats and the other 50 fishing the break!


You act like they're not showing development until 300 hours, they're showing it by the end of next week..
Looks like CMC is onboard 180 hrs out with a storm north of the islands. Checked it out on stormjunkies site, FSU model.
August 24, 1992

Hurricane Andrew


1387. jaseone
Quoting 1381. GatorWX:


Wow. Never knew that. That's a long ways for an rc plane. Impressive.


Here is a recent article on them at The Verge, I had always pictured drones as being small but they are anything but small, just scroll down to see it coming out of a hangar.
1388. hydrus
Quoting 1379. nrtiwlnvragn:








From this Presentation
I bet 5 bucks that they lose at least
one of them in the next 5 years
to a category-4 or cat-5 .
Quoting 1384. CybrTeddy:


You act like they're not showing development until 300 hours, they're showing it by the end of next week..


OK

I don't have much faith in anything showing development (NOT TRACKING a system) over 150 hours. What model is showing development? How far out is it?Is it the third wave still over Africa?

I been taking care of a very sick kid but she is getting better now. Let her come home!

I favor the GFS over the Euro but the Navy is good also.

Good Morning All,

I Think I will head over to Pensacola Beach or maybe Navarre Florida just to get away for the night....
Maybe the weather will be better over there since the Low pressure has moved more to the west anyway....



Taco :o)
1391. GatorWX
Quoting 1383. Autistic2:


I saved it as a PDF it is very good.


I'll save the link for another time. The page wouldn't even open after I shut down all apps and web sites. Oy. My phone takes about 2-3 mins just to load the sat gifs. So frustrating!
Quoting 1389. Autistic2:


OK

I don't have much faith in anything showing development (NOT TRACKING a system) over 150 hours. What model is showing development? How far out is it?Is it the third wave still over Africa?

I been taking care of a very sick kid but she is getting better now. Let her come home!

I favor the GFS over the Euro but the Navy is good also.



CMC, Navy, GFS are all showing development by around 168 hours or so of a system in the MDR. Here's the CMC at 240 hours.


NAVGEM (Navy) by 180 hours.


GFS by 180 hours, eventually trucks towards Florida as a strong TS.

Quoting 1388. hydrus:
I bet 5 bucks that they lose at least
one of them in the next 5 years
to a category-4 or cat-5 .


At 65K feet? They don't fly low. Could see loosing one to mechanical issues though.
1395. hydrus
Quoting 1348. PensacolaDoug:
I noticed that almost all models show something, even the ECMWF:


'Tis the season!
Yep. An extremely large disturbance will move off the northern coast of South America and merge with a tropical wave. It will move slowly north steadily intensifying. As it moves into the gulf toward the Florida Panhandle, it intensifies further reaching category -5 status and continues to strengthen. The storm is now 750 miles in diameter with hurricane force winds extending 400 miles from the center and stalls just offshore Pensacola for 3 days, dumping 95 inches of rain on all Northern Florida, temporarily drifts south regaining cat-5 strength and makes landfall on P.Doug....Hope u stock your cooler with brew and the pantry with aspirin..:)..oh, Good morning.
1396. GatorWX
Quoting 1387. jaseone:


Here is a recent article on them at The Verge, I had always pictured drones as being small but they are anything but small, just scroll down to see it coming out of a hangar.


Reading now. I'll say though, they aren't p3's or c130's.

"Aside from avoiding risk to pilots, "the Global Hawk aircraft have the advantage of duration and altitude," says Beth Hagenauer, a public affairs specialist with NASA's Earth Sciences division, highlighting these specific models' ability to stay aloft for 28 hours and reach heights of 60,000 feet."

High altitude wings (U2 like), so large in that respect, but still I'm impressed with the distance and duration it's capable of. I would've never assumed that without reading it. USA!
1397. hydrus
Quoting 1394. nrtiwlnvragn:


At 65K feet? They don't fly low. Could see loosing one to mechanical issues though.
Nahhh. One of the weird meso whirlies is gonna get it..:)
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
There is a near 0% chance some bloggers will not ask the same questions and be given the correct answers and won't remember them.

There is a near 0% chance some bloggers will not embarrass themselves today.


But... But
1399. centex
Anytime I see post about 300+ hour model output I get offline immediately. Bye
Quoting 1395. hydrus:
Yep. An extremely large disturbance will move off the northern coast of South America and merge with a tropical wave. It will move slowly north steadily intensifying. As it moves into the gulf toward the Florida Panhandle, it intensifies further reaching category -5 status and continues to strengthen. The storm is now 750 miles in diameter with hurricane force winds extending 400 miles from the center and stalls just offshore Pensacola for 3 days, dumping 95 inches of rain on all Northern Florida, temporarily drifts south regaining cat-5 strength and makes landfall on P.Doug....Hope u stock your cooler with brew and the pantry with aspirin..:)..oh, Good morning.


You deserve a promotion to seer class 1!! Good call!! rolfl!!
2013 Storms
Atlantic
green ball95L.INVEST


Quoting 1370. nrtiwlnvragn:
Global Hawk off to meet SAL






Aircraft: Global Hawk AV6 (NASA872)
Last Update (utc): 2013-08-24T12:54:23Z
Last Update Delta: (About 15 seconds ago)
Latitude: 36.255 (36° 15' 18.35")
Longitude: -65.556 (65° 33' 20.88")
Pressure Altitude (ft): 54883.80 (16728.58 m)
Heading (deg): 105.80
Ground Speed (kts): 343.67
Total Temperature (c): -46.20 (226.95 k)


It doesn't sound nearly as sexy when a plane takes off to meet SAL when compared to it flying into an active storm. Somewhere there the sexiness get lost :-(
1403. etxwx
Good morning all. Still whining...err..waiting for rain here in Texas. I washed the car, gonna do laundry today and am seriously considering washing the windows (but I'm not quite that desperate yet.)

These folks need rain worse than we do. Terrible fire situation in the West.
Fast-moving wildfire near Yosemite threatens power in San Francisco

Revisiting the Waldo Canyon fire
by Rick Wilking - Reuters
After covering dozens of hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires, I have often thought about what happens to those places after the media says adios.
Quoting 1367. belizeit:
All that training rain will cause flooding for some villages and citys

Gro....The Air Guitar championships were held this week....Not sure if you were in it this year or not..


Still?? I thought it was on its way to being gone.
Quoting 1347. GatorWX:
Irene was vermont's Floyd as I saw it. The southern tier of NY and northern PA were also affected pretty bad. I had spent the summer up near Binghamton two summers prior and made some friends up there that relayed a lot of what was going on locally back to me. Tropical systems do bad things in mountainous areas.
From the standpoint of a Pennsylvania resident, I can agree with you there. Irene Lee = some if the worst flooding I've ever seen, I got a foot of rain from Lee. After 3 inches from Irene
Quoting 1399. centex:
Anytime I see post about 300 hour model output I get offline immediately. Bye


Because you wish the models went to 400 hours? Is that why you get upset?

It's almost like having confidence in Dr. Grays' seasonal forecast. His crystal ball hasn't been working too well the past few years.
1409. GatorWX
Quoting 1403. etxwx:
Good morning all. Still whining...err..waiting for rain here in Texas. I washed the car, gonna do laundry today and am seriously considering washing the windows (but I'm not quite that desperate yet.)

These folks need rain worse than we do. Terrible fire situation in the West.
Fast-moving wildfire near Yosemite threatens power in San Francisco

Revisiting the Waldo Canyon fire
by Rick Wilking - Reuters
After covering dozens of hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires, I have often thought about what happens to those places after the media says adios.



"With hotshots and other elite fire crews stretched thin, U.S. fire managers will decide in coming days whether to seek U.S. military or international aid to check the roughly 50 large fires burning in the West."

Sad with the amount of wealth our country has.
1410. GatorWX
Quoting 1407. Doppler22:
From the standpoint of a Pennsylvania resident, I can agree with you there. Irene Lee = some if the worst flooding I've ever seen, I got a foot of rain from Lee. After 3 inches from Irene


Forgot it was actually the combination of the two. Thanks
I wish I could remember what storm it was. A couple/few years ago the GFS predicted a hurricane hitting Florida 10 days out.
And 10-12 days later a hurricane tracked across S. Florida.

But as we know, thats rarely ever happens.
Quoting 1410. GatorWX:


Forgot it was actually the combination of the two. Thanks
we'll I think it was mainly Irene that devastated Vermont, but it was the Lee+ Irene combination for NY and PA
1413. JRRP
GFS ENS
1414. LargoFl
well in fantasy land..this one is OFF the coast of tampa bay not IN it....
1415. GatorWX
Quoting 1412. Doppler22:
we'll I think it was mainly Irene that devastated Vermont, but it was the Lee+ Irene combination for NY and PA


Yeah, but for the southern tier. That's what I meant. Forgot entirely about lee.
1416. GatorWX
Quoting 1413. JRRP:
GFS ENS


I like the ensembles....as far as long range model output
1417. JRRP
The Low that forms around the 180 hour mark (GFS), comes from a wave coming off Africa in the next 48-72 hours.
Be interesting to watch to see if that materializes.
21 Years ago today.





Even I remember this one. It was all over the news here. Especially with the Miami Zoo and the possibility of the animals on the loose.
1420. LargoFl
well yes its fantasy land..BUT..sept IS the month floridians worry about..and its peak season in a few days...at the very least..you should already have..your hurricane kits made and stocked up..and maybe plans on what you will do and where to go if..you have to evacuate huh..all this should have already been done...no storm here yet..but being prepared is better than getting caught off guard.
1421. GatorWX
I'll bet Oct is a doozy. I hate to speculate however. I'll simply bet words and not money on that.
1422. JRRP
Quoting 1414. LargoFl:
well in fantasy land..this one is OFF the coast of tampa bay not IN it....


As mentioned, that "fantasy land" low over Florida comes from an African wave due to leave the coast in the next couple days.
Begins getting its act together around 180 hour mark (about this time next week)
Quoting 1393. CybrTeddy:


CMC, Navy, GFS are all showing development by around 168 hours or so of a system in the MDR. Here's the CMC at 240 hours.


NAVGEM (Navy) by 180 hours.


GFS by 180 hours, eventually trucks towards Florida as a strong TS.


I have a question- where and how strong will the Bermuda High be?


It looks like Belize is getting soaked.
21 years ago today many of my Miami-Dade friends were going through hell after Andrew... Thank goodness my dear friend Suzan survived the worst ...She lived in Redlands at the time....So many stories
Posted earlier
GFS at 189 hours. The low (that could threaten the U.S). has formed in the Southern Atlantic approaching the Islands. Just have to see if there is any consistancy in future runs.
1428. GatorWX
The late start and recent late endings indicate this and with the lack of activity, the heat hasn't moved much. I liked reading the theories yesterday regarding the lack of activity. What stuck out to me was how GW has caused heat to e distributed over a much greater area than historical records would show. I'm not sure this could be directly related to GW, but regardless it seemed very plausible. Instead of heat being concentrated in the mdr, etc. with less variation of heat in that region and by default more in air, wouldn't this limit instability? With that said, it was a good theory IMO.
1429. GatorWX
Quoting 1427. Sfloridacat5:
Posted earlier
GFS at 189 hours. The low (that could threaten the U.S). has formed in the Southern Atlantic. Just have see if there is any consistancy in future runs.


Southern North Atlantic. Just saying. ;) I hate responses like that too.
1430. hydrus
Quoting 1426. PalmBeachWeather:
21 years ago today many of my Miami-Dade friends were going through hell after Andrew... Thank goodness my dear friend Suzan survived the worst ...She lived in Redlands at the time....So many stories
Krome ave, Cutler Ridge, Kendall, Florida City and Perrine..To this day, the worst hurricane wind damage these eyes have ever seen....I saw steel I beams that looked like the twist ties on bread bags.
1431. hydrus
1432. GatorWX
Quoting 1428. GatorWX:

The late start and recent late endings indicate this and with the lack of activity, the heat hasn't moved much. I liked reading the theories yesterday regarding the lack of activity. What stuck out to me was how GW has caused heat to e distributed over a much greater area than historical records would show. I'm not sure this could be directly related to GW, but regardless it seemed very plausible. Instead of heat being concentrated in the mdr, etc. with less variation of heat in that region and by default more in air, wouldn't this limit instability? With that said, it was a good theory IMO.


I know the significance of the sal, but I'm not entirely sure that's the only issue.
1433. LargoFl
well a front brings more(geez) rain to the panhandle and NO and Texas get rains too .............
GFS at 216 hours (8-9 days and could be consider "fantasy land")the well established low impacting the Islands
1435. GatorWX
Quoting 1430. hydrus:
Krome ave, Cutler Ridge, Kendall, Florida City and Perrine..To this day, the worst hurricane wind damage these eyes have ever seen....I saw steel I beams that looked like the twist ties on bread bags.


I went over with my dad to south dade to buy a sailboat. Damage was incredible. I'm not sure you made it over to the left side, charley was quite similar, just a very narrow footprint. I should say an incredibly narrow footprint. I went down to pg the following morning, I was in tears.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1437. hydrus
1438. LargoFl
1439. etxwx
Quoting 1409. GatorWX:



"With hotshots and other elite fire crews stretched thin, U.S. fire managers will decide in coming days whether to seek U.S. military or international aid to check the roughly 50 large fires burning in the West."

Sad with the amount of wealth our country has.


Found a bit more on this in an article on The Voice of Russia/Reuters. Sounds like we may have some mutual aid agreements with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

US wildfire managers weigh help from military, foreign countries
Excerpt: US fire managers this week opened the way to potentially seeking military aid and gaining firefighting resources stemming from agreements with Canada, Australia and New Zealand by raising the national wildfire alert index to the maximum level of 5 for the first time in five years.
Quoting 1435. GatorWX:


I went over with my dad to south dade to buy a sailboat. Damage was incredible. I'm not sure you made it over to the left side, charley was quite similar, just a very narrow footprint. I should say an incredibly narrow footprint. I went down to pg the following morning, I was in tears.


I've had people that lived in South Fl. tell me "I went through Andrew and it wasn't all that bad."
These are people that didn't go through the eye wall of Andrew. Most the people who actually experienced the eye wall of Andrew weren't sure if they were going to live or die. Simply incredible wind in Andrews eye wall.
Top o' the morning from Central OK.

All is quiet here, as it is in the ATL. Summer has returned with temps in the low to mid-90's, and hardly any clouds in sight. My condolences to the folks south of me experiencing much higher temps, with much less rain.

Just got done with a "forced" upgrade - from basic cable (45 channels) to U-verse (with over 600 channels). Ugh!

Forecast:
Weakening of self-discipline will occur, with gradual subsidence into the recliner. This, almost horizontal feature, will remain stationary for hours on end, until an approaching wave of reality induces upward motion. Energy associated with this system is expected to remain disorganized, with no real focus, until slowly circulating back and subsiding once again in the same region. This pattern is expected to remain for the upcoming weeks.

Enjoy your day - will catch you later.
1442. 900MB
Quoting 1438. LargoFl:


Sharknado come true?
1443. airmet3
So I have a question about the MJO. My understanding is that the MJO can promote convective activity in an environment that is suitable for convection. The MJO does not create a suitable environment where there is not one.

I read from folks here who state they are waiting, dare I say hoping, for the next MJO in a week or two and this will enhance tropical activity. However, the dry, stable air mass in the MDR will seem to win out since the MJO does not, in itself, change this to a moist unstable environment nor does it change the overall pattern to create a more unstable atmosphere.

Am I missing something?
andrew.was.a.freak.most.are.like.bonnie
Quoting 1443. airmet3:
So I have a question about the MJO. My understanding is that the MJO can promote convective activity in an environment that is suitable for convection. The MJO does not create a suitable environment where there is not one.

I read from folks here who state they are waiting, dare I say hoping, for the next MJO in a week or two and this will enhance tropical activity. However, the dry, stable air mass in the MDR will seem to win out since the MJO does not, in itself, change this to a moist unstable environment nor does it change the overall pattern to create a more unstable atmosphere.

Am I missing something?

Air is sinking across the Atlantic...that's why the air is stable. The upward MJO is associated with rising air, which supports convective activity. It should win out.
1446. Patrap
Also note the outer Band, a lil Vort embedded in the mean is swirling over the House jus now...in NOLA

1447. Patrap
Note the organization of the COC in the last few frames.

1448. cmckla
Is the NHC planning a recon flight out to investigate thr blob of convection off the mouth of the mississippi river. It is showing outflow and a twist. Keesler AF base is only 50 miles from NOLA. Might be worth a look to see if the pressures are low at the surface.

I believe we may have Ferdiane.