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July 2013: Earth's 6th Warmest July on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2013

July 2013 was the globe's 6th warmest July since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 10th warmest July on record. The year-to-date period of January - July has been the 6th warmest such period on record. July 2013 global land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. July 2013 was the 341st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 10th or 8th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of July 2013 in his July 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. The big stories that he highlights are the extraordinary heat waves in the central portion of Russia’s Arctic region and in eastern China. Both heat waves were unprecedented for their respective locations. Extreme heat has killed at least 40 people in China since July 1. Also, Greenland measured its hottest temperature on record July 30th when the mercury hit 25.9°C (78.6°F) at Maniitoq Mittarfia during an unusually strong local wind event called a foehn.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2013, the 6th warmest July for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Most of the world's land surfaces were warmer than average during July. The United Kingdom and Australia had their 3rd warmest July temperatures on record, and South Korea and New Zealand, their 4th warmest July. Parts of the central and southeastern United States, small regions across northern Canada, eastern Greenland, and parts of Mongolia and eastern Russia were cooler than average. Far northwestern Canada and part of the eastern United States were much cooler than their long-term averages. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Six billion-dollar weather disasters in July
Six billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth during July. The most damaging of these were in China: the on-going drought in Central and Eastern China that has cost $6 billion this year, and significant flooding across nearly every section of China between the 7th and 17th, which left 305 people dead or missing, and cost $4.5 billion. The world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013 is nineteen, and the U.S. total is five, according to the July 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield:

1) Flooding, Central Europe, 5/30 - 6/6, $22 billion
2) Drought, Brazil, 1/1 - 5/31, $8.3 billion
3) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31, $6.0 billion
4) Flooding, Calgary, Alberta Canada, 6/19 - 6/24, $5.3 billion
5) Tornado, Moore, OK, and associated U.S. severe weather, 5/18 - 5/22, $4.5 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/7 - 7/17, $4.5 billion
7) Flooding, Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
8) Flooding, Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
9) Tornadoes and severe weather, U.S., 5/26 - 6/2, $2 billion
9) Severe weather, Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $2 billion
11) Winter weather, Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
12) Drought, New Zealand, 1/1 - 5/10, $1.6 billion
12) Severe weather, U.S., 4/7 - 4/11, $1.6 billion
14) Flooding, Toronto, Canada, 7/8, $1.45 billion
15) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3, $1.4 billion
15) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25, $1.4 billion
17) Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
18) Flooding, India and Nepal, 6/14 - 6/18, $1.1 billion
19) Winter weather, Plains, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 2/24 - 2/27, $1.0 billion


Figure 2. Heavy flood waters sweep through Beichuan in southwest China's Sichuan province on July 9, 2013. Rainfall amounts as high as 1,150 millimeters (45.3 inches) of rain fell in the Dujiangyan region, triggering Sichuan Province's worst floods in at least 50 years. Flooding in China from July 7 - 17, 2013 cost at least $4.5 billion. Image credit: AFP/Getty Images.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 16th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during July 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last though the fall, and the large majority of the El Niño models also predict that neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of August 19, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest July extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during July was 5th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Arctic sea ice extent maintained a steady, near-average pace of retreat through the first half of August, making it very unlikely that the record low minimum extent observed in September 2012 will be surpassed this year. Nevertheless, there are extensive areas of low-concentration ice, even in regions close to the North Pole.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical disturbances of note in the Atlantic today. None of the computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic during the coming week. In the Eastern Pacific, there is a tropical disturbance (94E) about 600 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico that is growing more organized. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 60% of developing by Friday, and a 90% chance of developing by Monday. The GFS and European models predict that 94E will become Tropical Storm Ivo and pass close to the coast of Baja California over the weekend.


Video 1. Most spectacular weather video of July: a tornado in Milan, Italy on July 29 hurls huge amounts of debris against the office building the video was taken from. The photographer is lucky the building's windows didn't shatter and seriously injure him. Jason Samenow at the Capital Weather Gang has more videos and details on the event.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1494. SLU:
The 06z GFS shows no development through August 31st. It appears to have busted on all the ghost storms in the last 2 week. Something really odd is going on this August.


And with the models too.
1502. IKE
There hasn't been one system that lasted over 4 days this season in the Atlantic. The ACE #'s have to be so low this season, so far.
1503. pottery
Quoting IKE:

Scattered afternoon thundershowers. None at my house yesterday though.
br>I'm really surprised at this season. I'm not complaining about it...just see nothing to get excited about through, at least the first day or 2 of September,

Yeah, it's a Weird One all right.

We are 16'' below our yearly average (rainfall) at my house, even though Jan and April were above average.

Not seeing anything on the horizon, but I'm pretty sure there will be more surprises one way or the other.
1504. pottery
Busted blog ????
1505. GatorWX
It's been remarkably stable out there all season. Surprising after Chantal and Dorian, conditions have only deteriorated more. Conditions certainly weren't top notch then either. Idk really and somebody could most like prove me right or wrong, but it seems the waves have been so large, they've been able to have further reach. As much as folks downplay the MJO in our basin, it certainly won't hurt this year. The Atl will take anything it can get. I have to imagine temps must be climbing well out there with all the sunshine. High trades have been an issue, although I haven't seen graphics regarding their speed in a while. It's simply to dry and stable. Haven't had a good shot from the MJO since July, Dorian. We'll see what happens. 2006 is starting to look interesting in retrospect. :) Maybe 2nd half shall be different, but I don't know regarding the mdr. Seems like it needs something rather drastic to happen.
Top of the morning to everyone,

Summer has returned here in Central OK, as High Pressure re-establishes itself and brings highs back to the low-to-mid-90's. Cut-and-paste that summary for the next 7-10 days, as that is pretty much how its going to be.

Thanks for breakfast (ai) and the coffee (LF).

ATL continues to be on hiatus. Only means that the blog natives are going to get restless. With the associated scattered "boom or bust" discussions.

Given the prognostications made in the beginning of the year - kinda happy that its quiet at the moment.

Stay safe, have a blast, keep it civil.

Video of the trees taking the plunge in LA was pretty awesome!
Good morning everyone! Made it a whole day without rain yesterday. Sure hope that blow up SE of us in the Gulf goes anywhere but here! Looking to try and make a whole two days without rain! Tropics still looking quiet.
Leaving early today for school, tons of paperwork to do, stayed late yesterday. I need the weekend to get here and a school paperwork free one at that. And if I'm going to make wishes, a long rainy weekend as well! *G*

Everyone have a great Thursday, or Friday as the case may be for some.
ocean water is very warm here in e cen florida. its like sitting in a hot shower when the water splashes on me.
Morning all.

Quoting 1493. islander101010:
leftovers (not again) of ex erin making landfall in the northern leewards this morning. might get some showere
I'm waiting to see if these leftovers can get a second life to them... maybe south of the DR or between Cuba and the Caymans... or, given the current high orientation, maybe up this way...

Wouldn't a system forming from these remnants still be Erin? I don't see any interaction that could happen to cause a rename...
Quoting 1492. IKE:
Good morning. Latest GFS through 186 hours in the ATL...nothing.

I am not complaining about it either. I was able to go on a few vacations and so did my parents up to the outer banks. No hurricanes to track meant most Americans and tourists could enjoy their summer vacation along the coast. Great news for local businesses along the Gulf and East Coast. Of course September is anyone's guess. Oh yeah Robert Plant is now 65, officialy old enough to retire, but can still rock :).
1512. GatorWX
Is blog having issues?
Quoting 1494. SLU:
The 06z GFS shows no development through August 31st. It appears to have busted on all the ghost storms in the last 2 week. Something really odd is going on this August.
I wonder if we'll get somebody looking in greater detail at the influences on the system. Granted we were in a downward / suppressive mode of the MJO, but it seems a whole lot of other factors have persisted past their normal period of influence...

However, we still have a week plus before the end of the month...

Also, I'd like to remind all and sundry that today is the 21st anniversary of Andrew's progression to hurricane status... within 96 hours it had gone on to devastate parts of the Bahamas, Florida, and Louisiana...

Quoting 1492. IKE:
Good morning. Latest GFS through 186 hours in the ATL...nothing.
Hey, Ike... this is reminding me of 3 July's ago... The GFS was actually pretty accurate in forecasting low activity for as long as it lasted...
1517. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !Anyone about ?
"The confirmed leakage prompted Japan's nuclear watchdog to say it feared the disaster was "in some respect" beyond Tepco's ability to cope."

Radiation leaks continue unabated.
94E

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RE-FORMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AND IT APPEARS THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND REACH COLDER WATER WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY...THEREFORE CONDITIONS DO
NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
OK Florida folks,

What is up with these non frontal morning thunder storms? Why is the air so unstable at 6 and 7 am? These are afternoon looking storm cells. Apart from yesterday, I can't remember the last non-frontal rainstorm before 9 am.
It is weird.

Makes for a beautiful sunrise with the virga streaming down and orange light behind purple cloud towers, but weird just the same.

Yesterday afternoon even had one of those brown bathtub bands across the sky, which means part of the sky didn't have the smoggy sulfur pollution!


Panhandle about to get wet....again.
Expect a very stormy day all across FL today. Look off the west coast of FL as I said the other day we may have to watch near home for possible developement as the models have been hinting something may try to get orgainized either off the east side of FL or off the west side of FL.

1523. SLU
Unusually quiet this morning.
Nothing to talk about in the Atlantic, eh?
1525. SLU
Vorticity is beginning to increase off the west coast of FL.

Site is currently overloaded? Really?
Good Morning Class!
Good morning, everyone. Any info on why the site is so overloaded?
GFS shows nothing in the atlantic in 2 weeks. what an odd season. could go down as the biggest bust season in a while..
Test, blog seems hung up...
Quoting 1499. PensacolaDoug:




All's well on the Eastern Front.


Blog is hung!
1536. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

End of summer heat resembles 1999 and 2003, both late start hurricane season with major impact on US with storms



Testing.
this season might be a bust :(
Quoting 1498. IKE:

Scattered afternoon thundershowers. None at my house yesterday though.

I'm really surprised at this season. I'm not complaining about it...just see nothing to get excited about through, at least the first day or 2 of September,


I agree. Not a single hurricane through August is really surprising. Looking at the latest GFS it now looks like maybe the first week of September for our next storm. And that is a big maybe.
Quoting 1444. GatorWX:
Morning everyone! Cup o dark roast in hand on my west facing porch. Sick lightning show offshore. Began as I was going to bed, seems to only have intensified. Distant rumbles of thunder, nice illumination. Love it.



And I see our wave near Africa is following the recent trend. The continent itself looks about as devoid of convection as I've seen in awhile too :(



Everything is happening in the west Carib, GOM.

The Mjo is reaching the caribbean very soon is going to reach the EAtlantic.
Pull up to the scene and the blog was gone. Oh well I will leave you with this.

Link
1543. IKE

Quoting pottery:

Good morning.
Yeah, it's a Weird One, all right.
Last couple of days here have been just like DrySeason.
All we seem to be getting are occasional showers from passing T-Waves.
At my location we are 16'' below the average yearly rainfall, even though Jan and April were above the average.

Not seeing any storms on the horizon, and it looks like August will remain settled.
You need some rain. Wish I was on one of those islands down there...laying back in a lounge chair...with no watch on my arm:)
1544. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

I am not complaining about it either. I was able to go on a few vacations and so did my parents up to the outer banks. No hurricanes to track meant most Americans and tourists could enjoy their summer vacation along the coast. Great news for local businesses along the Gulf and East Coast. Of course September is anyone's guess. Oh yeah Robert Plant is now 65, officialy old enough to retire, but can still rock :).
Yes he can.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting 1541. allancalderini:
The Mjo is reaching the caribbean very soon is going to reach the EAtlantic.


The models aren't excited about it by developing anything for the next week.
How are the conditions in GOM for storm formation of that wannabe blob?
That ULL off the Florida West coast in the GOM is providing the instability needed for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The cell on Monday brought 60 mph winds to north pinellas, the cell on Tuesday was also severe, and the one yesterday brought 70 mph (actual gust of 69 mph in Bellair, 60 mph further east at inland locations in central FL) winds, as well as 60 mph winds to multiple bouys just west of the St. Pete Beach area.
With a large area of moisture interacting with the ULL, and high moisture content, I expect another round of severe storms. I expect a line of severe thunderstorms to develop inland over central Florida, move west, and intensify with seabreeze collision on the west coast. The dynamics are favorable for damaging straight line winds of 60-70 mph, small hail, flooding rains, and possible short-lived waterspouts or isolated tornadoes. Please heed your warnings. The ULL + typical spin with colliding outflow boundaries accounts for the isolated tornado potential, which will be further increased with the vorticity developing off the west coast with some potential homebrew convection.
Quoting 1506. daddyjames:
Top of the morning to everyone,

Summer has returned here in Central OK, as High Pressure re-establishes itself and brings highs back to the low-to-mid-90's. Cut-and-paste that summary for the next 7-10 days, as that is pretty much how its going to be.

Thanks for breakfast (ai) and the coffee (LF).

ATL continues to be on hiatus. Only means that the blog natives are going to get restless. With the associated scattered "boom or bust" discussions.

Given the prognostications made in the beginning of the year - kinda happy that its quiet at the moment.

Stay safe, have a blast, keep it civil.

Video of the trees taking the plunge in LA was pretty awesome!<br>


Morning, DJ - when watching the video didn't you wonder where the videographer was standing? I was imagining them on that board road. Was giving me the heebee jeebies. Seemed a might dangerous...
Boom! This is just an example of what 90 degree SST's can cause.

Quoting 1496. GatorWX:
Pesky red dust. Sure seems to be a bigger and bigger issue each year recently.


Is the Sahara Desert still expanding southward? I seem to remember reading reports on desertification still happening out there. I wonder what kind of long term affects that could have(tropics wise and in general) if it is still happening, also not sure about deforestation/logging/practices in the region south of the Sahara.
This has been the wettest 4 months in FL since the Great Depression. Insane and the rain just keeps coming!
Quoting 1493. islander101010:
leftovers (not again) of ex erin making landfall in the northern leewards this morning. might get some showers


NOT A DROP HERE OF COURSE. :/ BUST IS EVERYWHERE SO FAR. BORING!!
Quoting 1547. TampaBayStormChaser:
That ULL off the Florida West coast in the GOM is providing the instability needed for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The cell on Monday brought 60 mph winds to north pinellas, the cell on Tuesday was also severe, and the one yesterday brought 70 mph (actual gust of 69 mph in Bellair, 60 mph further east at inland locations in central FL) winds, as well as 60 mph winds to multiple bouys just west of the St. Pete Beach area.
With a large area of moisture interacting with the ULL, and high moisture content, I expect another round of severe storms. I expect a line of severe thunderstorms to develop inland over central Florida, move west, and intensify with seabreeze collision on the west coast. The dynamics are favorable for damaging straight line winds of 60-70 mph, small hail, flooding rains, and possible short-lived waterspouts or isolated tornadoes. Please heed your warnings. The ULL + typical spin with colliding outflow boundaries accounts for the isolated tornado potential, which will be further increased with the vorticity developing off the west coast with some potential homebrew convection.


The storms have been especially strong the past few days. I've experienced 2 severe storms in Pinellas County this week.
EP, 94, 2013082212, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1115W, 30, 1003, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 220, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
1555. Ninj4

Quoting 1551. StormTrackerScott:
This has been the wettest 4 months in FL since the Great Depression. Insane and the rain just keeps coming!
Yeah for the west side of the state. It's been pretty dry overall for North Brevard these past couple of weeks. The positioning of the AB high has been keeping the afternoon thunderstorms pinned to the west coast.
Quoting 1550. Stoopid1:


Is the Sahara Desert still expanding southward? I seem to remember reading reports on desertification still happening out there. I wonder what kind of long term affects that could have(tropics wise and in general) if it is still happening, also not sure about deforestation/logging/practices in the region south of the Sahara.


Don't know about it expanding southward but a local met last night showed a graphic of another huge plume coming off of Africa. I think that is the main reason why the GFS develops nothing for the next week.
Quoting 1548. LAbonbon:


Morning, DJ - when watching the video didn't you wonder where the videographer was standing? I was imagining them on that board road. Was giving me the heebee jeebies. Seemed a might dangerous...


Morning LAbb!

Was wondering if that had even posted, as I did just as things seemed to go haywire. Thought I may have done something bannable there for a moment . . :D

I agree, especially considering that it is obviously a sinkhole. Is that the same one that formed from the wastewater storage site that failed awhile back?

Bam! Watch the Gulf folks I wouldn't be surprised if we have a Claudette on our hands this weekend off the west coast of FL.

1559. Grothar
Quoting 1535. sebastianflorida:
.


LOL.
Quoting 1551. StormTrackerScott:
This has been the wettest 4 months in FL since the Great Depression. Insane and the rain just keeps coming!


Can't argue with that. I've lived here in Pinellas County a long time and this summer ranks right up at the top. It has been relentless since the beginning of June.
1561. barbamz
Good morning everyone from sunny Germany. The flooding situation in Eastern Asia made it to the online headlines in German newspapers today. Here some updates.

Disaster alert system
China Daily, updated: 2013-08-22 07:41
Despite the contingency plans in place in the event of natural disasters, the heavy death toll caused by recent flooding across China has exposed the absence of a timely and effective early-warning mechanism. ...


Remnants of Trami over land now in Southeastern China (Source).

Waters of Russia’s major Far-Eastern river rise to new historical maximum
22/08/2013 ITAR-TASS
Waters in Russia’s major Far-Eastern river, the Amur which is the central actor in an unprecedented flooding at the moment, have risen to new levels near the city of Khabarovsk.
Thursday morning, the water rise reached 702 centimeters, Khabarovsk territory Acting Governor Vyacheslav Shrot told a local television channel.
He said the situation was the most complicated in the Khabarovsk urban area and the adjoining district, as well as in the Nanaisky district. Also, river water had begun to rise near the territory’s second largest industrial center, Komsomolsk-on-Amur, which is located some 300 km downstream from Khabarovsk.
The flood is threatening three sections of an automobile road linking Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk-on-Amur, as well as one of the bridges on the same road. The pavement at one of the sections was covered by 3 to 4 centimeters of water in the small hours of Thursday. ...
Quoting 1555. Ninj4:

Yeah for the west side of the state. It's been pretty dry overall for North Brevard these past couple of weeks. The positioning of the AB high has been keeping the afternoon thunderstorms pinned to the west coast.


Don't worry you guys on the coast won't be left out too much longer as some areas along the coast have been drenched the last couple of days.

1563. Grothar
Gulf getting very active. Now that is a blob.




Quoting 1563. Grothar:
Gulf getting very active. Now that is a blob.






Just a blob... yes, so not *VERY ACTIVE* ;)
1565. Grothar
Quoting 1558. StormTrackerScott:
Bam! Watch the Gulf folks I wouldn't be surprised if we have a Claudette on our hands this weekend off the west coast of FL.



I don't think it will be Claudette. Aren't we up to the F's now.
Quoting 1518. NEFLWATCHING:
"The confirmed leakage prompted Japan's nuclear watchdog to say it feared the disaster was "in some respect" beyond Tepco's ability to cope."

Radiation leaks continue unabated.
"The sight of the flaming Hindenburg crashing to the earth prompted Captain Max Pruss to say he feared the blaze was "in some respect" beyond his airship's ability to land safely."

tepco

Talk about your understatements...
never felt the water this warm before on e cen florida the waves splashing on you feels like a warm shower guessing 85+
Quoting 1557. daddyjames:


Morning LAbb!

Was wondering if that had even posted, as I did just as things seemed to go haywire. Thought I may have done something bannable there for a moment . . :D

I agree, especially considering that it is obviously a sinkhole. Is that the same one that formed from the wastewater storage site that failed awhile back?



Hey, if you survived the bans from yesterday, I'm sure you're fine :)

I'm not sure if it's the same one or not, I was wondering the same thing. I haven't heard about another one, though. Was also wondering about the boom that was deployed.

How does Aussie find this stuff is the bigger question!
Quoting 1563. Grothar:
Gulf getting very active. Now that is a blob.






Came out of no where. Kinda like waking up in the morning and there is a big pimple on your nose.
Quoting 1563. Grothar:
Gulf getting very active. Now that is a blob.






Like I said yesterday most of storms may be homegrown coming from the Gulf & Caribbean from decaying fronts. Maybe we will sneak out a CV storm but I am beginning to think that may not happen now.



Good Morning!
7:22 am (11:22 GMT)

The sun come up it was blue and gold
The sun come up it was blue and gold
The sun come up it was blue and gold
Ever since I put your picture in a frame

I come calling in my Sunday best
I come calling in my Sunday best
I come calling in my Sunday best
Ever since I put your picture in a frame


And I'm gonna love you 'til the wheels come off,
Oh yeah.


I love you baby and I always will
I love you baby and I always will
I love you baby and I always will
Ever since I put your picture in a frame...


(Picture in a Frame - Tom Waits)
Quoting 1566. Neapolitan:
"The sight of the Hindenburg crashing to the earth prompted Captain Max Pruss to say he feared the blaze was "in some respect" beyond his flaming airship's ability to land safely."

tepco

Talk about your understatements...


Yeah, they are seeking outside help. Waiting for the international agency to approve upgrading it to a Level 3 emergency.
1573. Grothar
Quoting 1564. CaribBoy:


Just a blob... yes, so not *VERY ACTIVE* ;)


In the Gulf it is getting very active. Just because there is nothing active near you is no reason to get nasty.

Quoting 1565. Grothar:


I don't think it will be Claudette. Aren't we up to the F's now.


Remember 2009? That is what I am referring too. WAKE UP GRO!
Quoting 1568. LAbonbon:


Hey, if you survived the bans from yesterday, I'm sure you're fine :)

I'm not sure if it's the same one or not, I was wondering the same thing. I haven't heard about another one, though. Was also wondering about the boom that was deployed.

How does Aussie find this stuff is the bigger question!


Opposite hours, he's awake when no one (well except for bouts of insomnia) is :D

I noticed the boom too, so that was why I was wondering - and I'm too lazy to even Google right now ;)
1576. Grothar
Quoting 1569. clwstmchasr:


Came out of no where. Kinda like waking up and there is a big pimple on your nose.


I saw it coming yesterday. I just didn't want to say anything. :)
Quoting 1570. StormTrackerScott:


Like I said yesterday most of storms may be homegrown coming from the Gulf & Caribbean from decaying fronts. Maybe we will sneak out a CV storm but I am beginning to think that may not happen now.





I am starting to think the line of severe storms that should develop over inland Florida later this afternoon (around 3-4 pm) could rotate around this area in the NE gulf. Looking at the radar, you can see some spiraling and rotating about the blob in a south to north fashion. With the ULL southwest of it providing some ventilation, and cold air aloft, we should get some good squalls later today. I think we will see the widespread 60-70 mph wind reports today that we saw yesterday across central Florida.
1578. Grothar
Quoting 1574. StormTrackerScott:


Remember 2009? That is what I am referring too. WAKE UP GRO!


Just yanking your chain, Scott. That's what gets my wits going in the morning. My body starts moving around 12.
Wind shear is moderate, temps are warm, and the ULL is funneling enough energy. NE GOM is the best spot to watch now for development at this point.
Morning Weather Geeks! Morning from the Woods!! Morning from the lush, deciduous Oak Hickory Forests in Southern Illinois. :) How is everyone today! Ains, thanks for breakfast. SO YUMMY!! DEXTER!!!! You getting into trouble???????? lol Have a great day at class Ains!!

SOOOOOOOOOOO....I am having a hard time finding a cloud in the sky near Cypress. Anyone help me out??? It's just all beautiful sunshine here!!

Natalie :)

Quoting 1578. Grothar:


Just yanking your chain, Scott. That's what gets my wits going in the morning. My body starts moving around 12.


Yank me, crank me, but don't get up and thank me!
I have been quiet on the blog because it was stuck at 1499 and refused to update all morning.

on the flip side I watched several weekly weather summaries with Riah. LOVED HER!

Apart from being too shiny, the bits are well scripted and presented with a great sense of weight and humor by turns. Fantastic. It reminded me a bit of the Linda Ellerbee in "NBC news overnight" that was so awesome.
Moaning! ;)

Not a single low pressure in the tropical Atlantic. There's an L over Africa, but even it wasn't there late last night. Off to the races, y'all have fun. I'm sure the Earth will be really hot after all of today's comments. ;P

It is curious that the several cloud towers and their rainfall east of Punam county did not show up on the radar animations at all this morning.
Good morning my good peoples. Major thunderstorm activity here in Austin. We got 4.5 inches of rain last night and still going.

Nah not really. Dry and clear temps in the mid 70's and a nice morning over all. :) Happy Thursday all.
Quoting 1583. moonlightcowboy:
Moaning! ;)

Not a single low pressure in the tropical Atlantic. There's an L over Africa, but even it wasn't there late last night. Off to the races, y'all have fun. I'm sure the Earth will be really hot after all of today's comments. ;P


And a good morning to you too cowboy. :) Yep, absolutely nuttin' out there...the way I like it fine Sir! Haha....you ever seen the movie Roadhouse. Well, I'm Dalton today. I'm the cooler. ;)
Quoting 1561. barbamz:
Good morning everyone from sunny Germany. The flooding situation in Eastern Asia made it to the online headlines in German newspapers today. Here some updates.

Disaster alert system
China Daily, updated: 2013-08-22 07:41
In this day and age, when we have highly developed meteorological technologies, reasonably accurate weather forecasts are not that difficult, so it should be possible to issue warnings by means of television, radio, the Internet, cellphones and other means. So why were no effective warnings given?

This question should be left to relevant departments to think about before the arrival of the next natural disaster.




G'morning barbmz.

Thanks for the interesting post. Have to say, pretty harsh criticism by the China Daily.

And I wanted to thank you for bringing us interesting, weather related posts to the blog! You always expand our knowledge base outside of the somewhat narrow focus on the blog, and always stay far removed from the fray - can't say that about myself necessarily :)

Thank you, and I hope all is well with you and yours in Germany.
1588. barbamz

Total Precipitable Water West Pacific (Source to enlarge). Wow, I've rarely seen such an amount of deep red colour (= abundance of precipitable moisture) covering such a large area as now with Trami.
1589. WetHam1
I dont post much but am involved in emergency management and this email from FEMA this morning struck me as being a perfect example of how out of touch EMA can be with reality sometimes!

Hurricanes on the Horizon!
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) recently updated its 2013 Hurricane Season Outlook. Because the season has already produced several named storms in the Atlantic hurricane region, NOAA now predicts an above-average hurricane season, with the possibility of being very active.
This season is expected to produce 13-19 named storms, of which 6-9 are expected to become hurricanes and 3-5 to become major hurricanes. The season ends November 30 but peak season runs mid-August to late October.
While the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to be below normal, it only takes one hurricane or tropical storm to cause a disaster which can occur whether a season is active or mostly quiet.
Therefore, people are urged to prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the outlook.
dry air killing them tropical waves.
Quoting 1582. biff4ugo:
I have been quiet on the blog because it was stuck at 1499 and refused to update all morning.

on the flip side I watched several weekly weather summaries with Riah. LOVED HER!

Apart from being too shiny, the bits are well scripted and presented with a great sense of weight and humor by turns. Fantastic. It reminded me a bit of the Linda Ellerbee in "NBC news overnight" that was so awesome.


Ah, Admin woke up on the Wrong side of the bed. Blanket banned everyone until they could get a cup of coffee and brace themselves for the remainder of the day ;D
1592. Grothar
Quoting 1534. 69Viking:


Blog is hung!


Not everyone. Some can still get on.
1593. barbamz

And here the TPW of the Atlantic. BBL, have a nice day everyone.
We had a nice storm here in Cayman at 3 am this morning.Winds to 40 mph in squalls, about 0.40" rainfall. Going to be stormy through today, as the current wave passes by

1596. hydrus
90 hours..

I do not believe I have seen a tropical cyclone this large and potent this far north. It may be a significant rain event for the S.W. if it pans out.
Quoting 1594. AussieStorm:


And somewhere thee is a surfer eyeing that outflow thinking

Dude, that would be some ride!

Thanks! How are things on the other side of the world?
1598. barbamz
Quoting 1587. daddyjames:


G'morning barbmz.
And I wanted to thank you for bringing us interesting, weather related posts to the blog! Thank you, and I hope all is well with you and yours in Germany.


Thanks Daddy, very kind! As it wouldn't make much sense to discuss with you folks every cloud near Florida from a German point of view, lol, I have to look out a bit to far away horizons. And it's always interesting for me, too. ... Two busy days for me ahead, so I'll have to shorten my time on the blog for a while, bye for now ...
Quoting 1502. IKE:
There hasn't been one system that lasted over 4 days this season in the Atlantic. The ACE #'s have to be so low this season, so far.


Around 7 ACE i believe (46% of normal up to today)
Chicago and Southern Wisconsin you lucky ducklings you!!!

Quoting 69Viking:
Test, blog seems hung up...


I ain't got no problems getting on the blog.
Quoting 1596. hydrus:
90 hours..

I do not believe I have seen a tropical cyclone this far north. It may be a significant rain event for the S.W. if it pans out.


It would be great for Southern Cali to get some rain from this. Doesn't happen too often. Might have to make a trip back there as this will bring in some nice swells and awesome surfing regardless.
K....now I'm SUPER jealous!!!!!

Quoting 1601. AussieStorm:


I ain't got no problems getting on the blog.

was sputterin' 'fore mate but seems peach now.
Quoting 1580. SouthernIllinois:
Morning Weather Geeks! Morning from the Woods!! Morning from the lush, deciduous Oak Hickory Forests in Southern Illinois. :) How is everyone today! Ains, thanks for breakfast. SO YUMMY!! DEXTER!!!! You getting into trouble???????? lol Have a great day at class Ains!!

SOOOOOOOOOOO....I am having a hard time finding a cloud in the sky near Cypress. Anyone help me out??? It's just all beautiful sunshine here!!

Natalie :)



Good morning Sunshine! If I had the power I'd pick up the blob in the Gulf near me and drop it right on top of you! I'm sure it's good for a few inches of rain to water your trees!
Quoting 1597. daddyjames:


And somewhere there is a surfer eyeing that outflow thinking

Dude, that would be some ride!

Quoting 1602. calkevin77:


It would be great for Southern Cali to get some rain from this. Doesn't happen too often. Might have to make a trip back there as this will bring in some nice swells and awesome surfing regardless.


Think I found the man . . .
Quoting daddyjames:


And somewhere thee is a surfer eyeing that outflow thinking

Dude, that would be some ride!

Thanks! How are things on the other side of the world?


Got severe weather warning out. expecting wind gusts of up to 130km/h down around the Snowy Mountains 90km/h around the Capital and later tomorrow we'll get about 60km/h gusts here in Sydney.
Quoting 1592. Grothar:


Not everyone. Some can still get on.


I think if you were in before it hung at 1499 you were good. All my posts eventually posted, just not at the time I posted them! Off all places to have a Blob one has to blow up near water logged me!
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

was sputterin' 'fore mate but seems peach now.

Yeah, I've been here all day without any problem. Could be a local thing.
Quoting 1607. AussieStorm:


Got severe weather warning out. expecting wind gusts of up to 130km/h down around the Snowy Mountains 90km/h around the Capital and later tomorrow we'll get about 60km/h gusts here in Sydney.


Wow, due to the low coming in from the SE? Pretty impressive winds.
NE GOM not too bad on shear;

Quoting 1605. 69Viking:


Good morning Sunshine! If I had the power I'd pick up the blob in the Gulf near me and drop it right on top of you! I'm sure it's good for a few inches of rain to water your trees!

AWWWWW.....what a guy!! :) Appreciate it Viking. My trees & I wish you had the power too...couple inches would be spectacular. Morning right back at you btw. ;)
Quoting 1606. daddyjames:


Think I found the man . . .


LMAO guilty as charged. :) I grew up on the Orange County coast and good ole dad had a surf board in my hand when I was about 5 or 6. Best swells out there though come in the Winter from Aussie's neck of the woods. Cold as heck though.
Quoting 1573. Grothar:


In the Gulf it is getting very active. Just because there is nothing active near you is no reason to get nasty.




Grothar which way is that blob suppose to go? I really hope it's not toward Mobile,Al we don't need no more rain. The frogs are drowning because of way to much rain. I'm tired of rain. Plus we have a roof we need to put on we have had our shingles for about 3 weeks and haven't been able to put them on. Where gonna have a roof party I'm gonna cook ribs,sausage,hamburgers,potatoes salad,bake beans. And have lots of beer.


sheri
P.S. on the weekly roundup they list the High temperature record count and low temperature record count. If a city sets a record warm low temperature for the day, is that a record High temperature or Low?

I can't tell if the Low records are Cold high temperature for the day or if Hot Low temperature records fall in the Low record category.
Quoting 1614. calkevin77:


LMAO guilty as charged. :) I grew up on the Orange County coast and good ole dad had a surf board in my hand when I was about 5 or 6. Best swells out there though come in the Winter from Aussie's neck of the woods. Cold as heck though.


LOL - did you see the video Aussie posted - I know there is someone thinking about getting onto the spillway. Problem is, how would you get off that ride in one piece?
Quoting 1615. catastropheadjuster:



Grothar which way is that blob suppose to go? I really hope it's not toward Mobile,Al we don't need no more rain. The frogs are drowning because of way to much rain. I'm tired of rain. Plus we have a roof we need to put on we have had our shingles for about 3 weeks and haven't been able to put them on. Where gonna have a roof party I'm gonna cook ribs,sausage,hamburgers,potatoes salad,bake beans. And have lots of beer.


sheri


Sheri's trying to lure us into helping, watch out! Though it does sound good . . .
Quoting 1557. daddyjames:


Morning LAbb!

Was wondering if that had even posted, as I did just as things seemed to go haywire. Thought I may have done something bannable there for a moment . . :D

I agree, especially considering that it is obviously a sinkhole. Is that the same one that formed from the wastewater storage site that failed awhile back?



Same sinkhole (now 24 acres!), from yesterday's Advocate (Baton Rouge's newspaper)

Sinkhole renews activity, swallows more trees
This season could end up like 2013 record breaking inactive tornado season, to be honest. It was quiet most of year, but we still had 2 weeks of tragedy in Oklahoma from Moore EF5, Carney EF3, Shawnee EF4, and what is thought to be the most violent tornado ever in El Reno EF5 which is also the widest tornado on record. We also had some tornadoes in Texas as well at that time. Let's not forget Northern Georgia EF3 and Hattiesburg EF4 earlier in season as well. My point is that hurricane season could be quiet most of year, but easily can have 2 or 3 week of burst in hurricanes or majors. Everything is favorable but stable air and TUTT in which a strong tropical storm or stronger could easily bypass. Problem is we're missing MJO right now, but it'll come to East Atlantic in a week and we're in for it.

It only take one storm to make a season.
That's funny, the scientific weather discussion doesn't mention this. I think it looks like it's going to spread to the north to me.
Quoting 1620. Bluestorm5:
This season could end up like 2013 record breaking inactive tornado season, to be honest. It was quiet most of year, but we still had 2 weeks of tragedy in Oklahoma from Moore EF5, Carney EF3, Shawnee EF4, and what is thought to be the most violent tornado ever in El Reno EF5 which is also the widest tornado on record. We also had some tornadoes in Texas as well at that time. Let's not forget Northern Georgia EF3 and Hattiesburg EF4 earlier in season as well. My point is that hurricane season could be quiet most of year, but easily can have 2 or 3 week of burst in hurricanes or majors. Everything is favorable but stable air and TUTT in which a strong tropical storm or stronger could easily bypass. Problem is we're missing MJO right now, but it'll come to East Atlantic in a week and we're in for it.

It only take one storm to make a season.

1992 Blue.
Quoting 1617. daddyjames:


LOL - did you see the video Aussie posted - I know there is someone thinking about getting onto the spillway. Problem is, how would you get off that ride in one piece?


Ahh I just saw. The thing is that you are right about someone trying to get in on that. Sometimes they end up making it and sometimes they end up getting rescued...if they are lucky. Adrenaline can be such a pain sometime :)
Quoting 1608. 69Viking:


I think if you were in before it hung at 1499 you were good. All my posts eventually posted, just not at the time I posted them! Off all places to have a Blob one has to blow up near water logged me!


Nah, I was on, but got the same 'overloaded' message as everyone else
Quoting 1599. yankees440:


Around 7 ACE i believe (46% of normal up to today)


Really? That's it for the ACE. I would have thought it be much lower.

It has been slow, but not as much as many would have you believe.
have to post again. this is just all to beautiful.........

Quoting 1619. LAbonbon:


Same sinkhole (now 24 acres!), from yesterday's Advocate (Baton Rouge's newspaper)

Sinkhole renews activity, swallows more trees


Hey thanks for feeding my laziness. Not good that it still is swallowing things up. :(
Quoting 1622. SouthernIllinois:

1992 Blue.
Bingo.
Quoting 1621. opal92nwf:
That's funny, the scientific weather discussion doesn't mention this. I think it looks like it's going to spread to the north to me.

I've noticed that sometimes with my area. Many of times they seem to ignore the NAM (and rightly so!!!) go with the more reliable models but every once in a blue moon (great beer!!!) the NAM-ski gets her right. ;)
1630. RickWPB
I'm glad to see the 'classic view' to this website is working again. Thanks to whoever fixed this. I know it wasn't the guy I swapped emails with yesterday as he didn't seem to have a clue. :-/

Classic view:
Link
2013 ACE totals;

Andrea - 1.405
Barry - 0.565
Chantal - 2.0925
Dorian - 2.4925
Erin - 0.98
-----------
Total - 7.535
Quoting calkevin77:


LMAO guilty as charged. :) I grew up on the Orange County coast and good ole dad had a surf board in my hand when I was about 5 or 6. Best swells out there though come in the Winter from Aussie's neck of the woods. Cold as heck though.


Down around the southern Western Australian coast this time of year is good for swells with the strong antarctic lows. Autumn around the SE Australian coast if good. Queensland best time is when there are tropical lows around during November -> April. Right now... freezing cold.

SW Western Australia SST's


Victoria/Tasmania SST's


NEw South Wales SST's
Quoting 1627. daddyjames:


Hey thanks for feeding my laziness. Not good that it still is swallowing things up. :(


That sinkhole is one hungry hungry hippo.
Quoting 1625. daddyjames:


Really? That's it for the ACE. I would have thought it be much lower.

It has been slow, but not as much as many would have you believe.


I have a feeling once this MJO rolls around, we are going to have a hard time keeping up with the ACE..lol
Quoting 1620. Bluestorm5:
This season could end up like 2013 record breaking inactive tornado season, to be honest. It was quiet most of year, but we still had 2 weeks of tragedy in Oklahoma from Moore EF5, Carney EF3, Shawnee EF4, and what is thought to be the most violent tornado ever in El Reno EF5 which is also the widest tornado on record. We also had some tornadoes in Texas as well at that time. Let's not forget Northern Georgia EF3 and Hattiesburg EF4 earlier in season as well. My point is that hurricane season could be quiet most of year, but easily can have 2 or 3 week of burst in hurricanes or majors. Everything is favorable but stable air and TUTT in which a strong tropical storm or stronger could easily bypass. Problem is we're missing MJO right now, but it'll come to East Atlantic in a week and we're in for it.

It only take one storm to make a season.


Going for quality, not quantity this tornado season.
We still have round 2, so lets not let our guard down yet. Although, Fall typically is not as bad as spring mind you.
My mama told me my Papa told me too (do do doo doo do)
Well My mama told me my Papa told me too (do do doo doo do)
Well I would be here trying to sing these railroad blues...


Quoting 1521. seer2012:


Panhandle about to get wet....again.

Tried to post this earlier just as the blog was crashing.
Morning everyone....had a nice discussion last nite about a season Bust.....NEVER would I ever use the word Bust to describe a season as a bust would only be used by someone not affected, not by those affected.

Today, tho I have decided that the models are as a whole performing incredibly well. I would not take one model and say something will develop. I would take the Major Models...the CMC, ECM, GFS, and the Navy....and if I don't have at least 3 out 4 showing something, I would not count on anything developing.
Season's a bust. J/K. Common now geeks. We got all of September and October left. Cheer up!!!

EDIT: We even got November....satisfied. ;0)
Quoting 816. Naga5000:


It's unbelievable that if your so fed up with science and Dr. Master's expertise that you still come here to stir up trouble every day.


Sorry. I am just fascinated by people who believe that something as massive and changing and still much unknown as the climate can be "settled science".

Personally, I like a lot of what Dr Masters writes but I am amazed on how locked in how he believes AGW.

See, an open minded person should not mind if somebody doesn't believe what they do. I don't care if you believe in flawed science and AGW...I am just fascinated as to the how and why people who believe in AGW cast dispersions on people who don't believe what they do.

You are free to get Dr. Masters to ban me if I bother you so.
Quoting 1632. AussieStorm:


Down around the southern Western Australian coast this time of year is good for swells with the strong antarctic lows. Autumn around the SE Australian coast if good. Queensland best time is when there are tropical lows around during November -> April. Right now... freezing cold.

SW Western Australia SST's


Victoria/Tasmania SST's


NEw South Wales SST's


Visiting OZ is on my surfing bucket list. A friend of mine was an exchange student down there and told me about this place Snapper Rocks on the Gold Coast which I guess gets some massive swells. Equivalent to what we see near Santa Cruz Cali. Funny enough I think the So. hemisphere has some of the best surfing spots. I did a trip to Durban S. Africa a few years back when I was sent to Cape Town on business and it was amazing.
Quoting 1626. SouthernIllinois:
have to post again. this is just all to beautiful.........


Holy Cow
Quoting 1626. SouthernIllinois:
have to post again. this is just all to beautiful.........



Whoa. Met students at Udub are probably thrilled, Madison never gets hit like that!
Quoting 1596. hydrus:
90 hours..

I do not believe I have seen a tropical cyclone this far north. It may be a significant rain event for the S.W. if it pans out.


Been discussion for a few days about SWRN rain:

WPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

INTERESTS OVER THE SWRN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MOST SOLNS
STILL TRACK TO THE W OF BAJA CALIF...AS MSTR AND PSBLY HVY RNFL
FROM THIS FEATURE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE ERN PAC TROUGH AND CNTRL CONUS RIDGE. CONSULT
NHC OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ERN PAC
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. AWAY FROM THIS AREA OF ENHANCED MSTR EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST/ROCKIES.


US Hazards Outlook

Excerpt:

MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BEFORE RECURVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE, THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THOUGH
MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL ARIZONA. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS IN THIS REGION MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS, BEING PARTICULARLY AWARE OF THE DANGER OF FLASH
FLOODING IN DRY, LOW-LYING RIVER BEDS.
Quoting 1643. wxgeek723:


Whoa. Udub students are probably thrilled, Madison never gets hit like that!

Badger nation. Better now than a Saturday up there!
Quoting 1635. daddyjames:


Going for quality, not quantity this tornado season.
We still have round 2, so lets not let our guard down yet. Although, Fall typically is not as bad as spring mind you.
You are correct. This tornado season isn't over either. Oklahoma had an strong EF4 in November back in 2011 I believe in Tipton.


Fog rolling over Long Range Mountains in Lark Harbour Newfound.
Quoting 1640. bjrabbit:


Sorry. I am just fascinated by people who believe that something as massive and changing and still much unknown as the climate can be "settled science".

Personally, I like a lot of what Dr Masters writes but I am amazed on how locked in how he believes AGW.

See, an open minded person should not mind if somebody doesn't believe what they do. I don't care if you believe in flawed science and AGW...I am just fascinated as to the how and why people who believe in AGW cast dispersions on people who don't believe what they do.

You are free to get Dr. Masters to ban me if I bother you so.
Quoting 1644. SouthernIllinois:

Far from settled science. Still much to learn. An open mind covering all the bases is a must. we don't just rely on one tropical weather model to forecast where a cane is going do we?


You know what kills me the most is when he makes a statement like the head line to this blog. The 6th warmest on record. So does this also not make it the 50th coolest on record. You know what I am saying. Do, use the word on record is so distorted because of poor science to begin with. Look at where most weather stations are now placed....AT AIRPORTS where we have Asphalt and hot jet blast...com'on. JUST MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS
i know you rider gonna miss me when I'm gone.
i know you rider gonna miss me when I'm gone.
gonna miss you baby from running in your arms...


I just have to give a brief, non-meteorological update from Baton Rouge. For the first time in many days, it's blue, blue skies. The overcast, grey, skies have absconded! It's mighty pretty out here :D
Quoting 1618. daddyjames:


Sheri's trying to lure us into helping, watch out! Though it does sound good . . .


Daddyjames, Oh yeah we could have a WU member party @ my house putting my roof on. I didn't even think about that. LOL
That blob looks bad, very intense.

sheri
1653. Grothar
Quoting 1615. catastropheadjuster:



Grothar which way is that blob suppose to go? I really hope it's not toward Mobile,Al we don't need no more rain. The frogs are drowning because of way to much rain. I'm tired of rain. Plus we have a roof we need to put on we have had our shingles for about 3 weeks and haven't been able to put them on. Where gonna have a roof party I'm gonna cook ribs,sausage,hamburgers,potatoes salad,bake beans. And have lots of beer.


sheri


It isn't really moving, but after you make me that hungry you expect me to answer you?

There is a very strong area of high pressure to its NW and a low to its SW. So I would assume it would move to the NE

.

However, the steering current could me it thusly.

Quoting 1640. bjrabbit:


Sorry. I am just fascinated by people who believe that something as massive and changing and still much unknown as the climate can be "settled science".

Personally, I like a lot of what Dr Masters writes but I am amazed on how locked in how he believes AGW.

See, an open minded person should not mind if somebody doesn't believe what they do. I don't care if you believe in flawed science and AGW...I am just fascinated as to the how and why people who believe in AGW cast dispersions on people who don't believe what they do.

You are free to get Dr. Masters to ban me if I bother you so.


Now why are you trying to get us all worked up? Come on, the anti-AGW's are agitating again, and we - the AGW's were happily conversing on the blog.

Whether or not you individually want to believe in this is irrelevant to me.

@LAbonbon, I do have to say, I am fascinated at how they roll in Baton Rouge!

Police: Man twice rides horse into Scott bar, lassos man in parking lot on Tuesday night
Quoting 1645. nrtiwlnvragn:


Been discussion for a few days about SWRN rain:

WPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

INTERESTS OVER THE SWRN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MOST SOLNS
STILL TRACK TO THE W OF BAJA CALIF...AS MSTR AND PSBLY HVY RNFL
FROM THIS FEATURE MAY BE PULLED INTO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE ERN PAC TROUGH AND CNTRL CONUS RIDGE. CONSULT
NHC OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ERN PAC
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. AWAY FROM THIS AREA OF ENHANCED MSTR EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF MONSOONAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST/ROCKIES.


US Hazards Outlook

Excerpt:

MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BEFORE RECURVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE, THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THOUGH
MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL ARIZONA. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS IN THIS REGION MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS, BEING PARTICULARLY AWARE OF THE DANGER OF FLASH
FLOODING IN DRY, LOW-LYING RIVER BEDS.


Wow this is sometime worth watching. It's been very dry in that area and they certainly need the rain. What concerns me is the potential of huge and sudden ammounts of precipitation which would cause extremely dangerous flash floods. Hopefully this will be a relief instead of a new problem for the people in the SW.
With 140kts of wind shear over the SW Pacific. Dang, no chance of Tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. LOL

Quoting 831. misanthrope:
Let's think about this. The authors of the study likely spent a couple of years doing the research, writing up their results, submitting their paper to (and having it accepted by) Nature -- one of the most prestigious journals on the planet. Your response, without even having read the paper, amounts to all of "Nuh-uh." Do you realize how utterly stupid this makes you look?





Thank you for proving my point that anybody who disagrees with the flow here is attacked personally. I like the way you did it though...by using a passive construction as even Dr. Masters would have had to ban you had you used an active construction and just said I was stupid.

I am sure that the board at Nature that accepted this paper are all "birds of a feather" with the author. In today's academia, there is absolutely NO tolerance for opposing views. Most people want to be accepted and so you go along to get along. Otherwise, you don't get grants, tenure etc.

If we all just agreed with each other, this world would be a boring place. I'm sorry you think that I am stupid, or look stupid but at least I respect your right to call me that. And you know, I'm ok with that.

And yes, I did read the article; the whole article.
Quoting 1640. bjrabbit:


Sorry. I am just fascinated by people who believe that something as massive and changing and still much unknown as the climate can be "settled science".

Personally, I like a lot of what Dr Masters writes but I am amazed on how locked in how he believes AGW.

See, an open minded person should not mind if somebody doesn't believe what they do. I don't care if you believe in flawed science and AGW...I am just fascinated as to the how and why people who believe in AGW cast dispersions on people who don't believe what they do.

You are free to get Dr. Masters to ban me if I bother you so.


What flawed science? Bring some evidence to support your claim. As someone with a science background myself, I would love to see the evidence of this "flawed science".

You think that we somehow want the world to warm and want the negative effects that come with it? If you have a different answer to the empirical and observational data behind global warming, please do share.
OK, last attempt to get an answer.

Last week had a 3 to 1 Low temperature records over high temperature records.
Does the Low mean Cold or minimum for the day?
Quoting 1638. TampaSpin:
Morning everyone....had a nice discussion last nite about a season Bust.....NEVER would I ever use the word Bust to describe a season as a bust would only be used by someone not affected, not by those affected.

Today, tho I have decided that the models are as a whole performing incredibly well. I would not take one model and say something will develop. I would take the Major Models...the CMC, ECM, GFS, and the Navy....and if I don't have at least 3 out 4 showing something, I would not count on anything developing.


Read through those posts last night, don't know if describing a seasons actual cyclone numbers could be described as a bust. My take on a bust is a seasons forecast that is much lower or higher than a forecaster's prediction. My opinion is we do not know all of the factors that affect a season's activity, thus little to no skill in seasonal forecasting, again my opinion.
Quoting 1649. TampaSpin:


You know what kills me the most is when he makes a statement like the head line to this blog. The 6th warmest on record. So does this also not make it the 50th coolest on record. You know what I am saying. Do, use the word on record is so distorted because of poor science to begin with. Look at where most weather stations are now placed....AT AIRPORTS where we have Asphalt and hot jet blast...com'on. JUST MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS

TOTALLY hear ya. As an example Chicago official station was near the lake from the late 1880's till about 1950. Then the moved it to O'hare...which is inland about 15 miles. 15 miles away from the lake breeze makes a HUGE difference. It is very usual to see sticky temps in the low 90's inland and upper 70's near North Ave beach or Navy Pier. As they say up there...always cooler near the lake.
1662. Guysgal
Heavy rain in Russia. Stay safe and dry Snowman! Link
1663. hydrus
By this time next week, I believe the MDR will be close to primed for tropical development.

Quoting 1649. TampaSpin:


You know what kills me the most is when he makes a statement like the head line to this blog. The 6th warmest on record. So does this also not make it the 50th coolest on record. You know what I am saying. Do, use the word on record is so distorted because of poor science to begin with. Look at where most weather stations are now placed....AT AIRPORTS where we have Asphalt and hot jet blast...com'on. JUST MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS


Most airports are also surrounded by very large, open grassy areas that are removed from the influences of any asphalt heating. Believe that this has been addressed in regards to properly siting stations.
Quoting 1659. biff4ugo:
OK, last attempt to get an answer.

Last week had a 3 to 1 Low temperature records over high temperature records.
Does the Low mean Cold or minimum for the day?


You may need to reference where you are getting the data. Clicking trough NOAA Record Reports they normally list what the record is, such as this example:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
140 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRESNO ON AUGUST 19TH AND
20TH...
1666. Grothar
Quoting 1649. TampaSpin:


You know what kills me the most is when he makes a statement like the head line to this blog. The 6th warmest on record. So does this also not make it the 50th coolest on record. You know what I am saying. Do, use the word on record is so distorted because of poor science to begin with. Look at where most weather stations are now placed....AT AIRPORTS where we have Asphalt and hot jet blast...com'on. JUST MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS


Yes, I think they should all be placed in front of all the city halls in the middle of each city where you could get an accurate reading. Why stick them out in open fields in shade away from the runways and jet traffic.
Can someone check this link to see if the video if available and let me know. Cheers...

Video

If you do watch it, watch part 2 and the video link I posted at comment #1713.

Also feel free to WU mail me.
Quoting 1649. TampaSpin:


You know what kills me the most is when he makes a statement like the head line to this blog. The 6th warmest on record. So does this also not make it the 50th coolest on record. You know what I am saying. Do, use the word on record is so distorted because of poor science to begin with. Look at where most weather stations are now placed....AT AIRPORTS where we have Asphalt and hot jet blast...com'on. JUST MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS



Tampa, both rural and presumed "heat island" stations show the same warming trend. Also, NOAA adjusts poorly cited stations that may introduce a bias into the data. They have extensive literature on their methodology for this.


It looks like it may be starting to spin.
I deleted my own post. It's quoted if you must see it.

Not my fight. Enjoy your boards. goodbye!
Quoting 1667. AussieStorm:
Can someone check this link to see if the video if available and let me know. Cheers...

Video


Crude Solution Part 1 came up for me using Chrome.
Quoting 1654. daddyjames:



@LAbonbon, I do have to say, I am fascinated at how they roll in Baton Rouge!

Police: Man twice rides horse into Scott bar, lassos man in parking lot on Tuesday night


Okay, need a clarification here. Scott is definitely not in Baton Rouge, it's outside of Lafayette, about an hour west. And it happens to be where I lived when I first moved to LA. And I happen to have been at Cowboy's a time or two...

Scott is in Acadiana (aka 'Cajun country'). Upon entering Scott, there are signs that say 'Where the West Begins'. I've never been exactly clear on why that is, though.

Cool story, though. That's one that will definitely make the rounds!
Quoting 1655. CaneHunter031472:


Wow this is sometime worth watching. It's been very dry in that area and they certainly need the rain. What concerns me is the potential of huge and sudden ammounts of precipitation which would cause extremely dangerous flash floods. Hopefully this will be a relief instead of a new problem for the people in the SW.


Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it'll move up to where its most needed in the reservoirs.
Quoting 1670. RapidInsanity:
Quoting 816. Naga5000:


It's unbelievable that if your so fed up with science and Dr. Master's expertise that you still come here to stir up trouble every day.


I have been reading this board for a long time and only recently signed up last week cause of 92l and Erin.

It seems to me YOU are the one stirring the pot. Yesterday you were on Viking's a**. Today you are starting with someone else.


Hmm...interesting. That's a good one. My post to Viking was showing him the website for official weather data, which resolved that misunderstanding (and for note, I actually said I wasn't trying to start an argument). As for the others, when misinformation is posted regarding climate science, you better believe I will post links and rebuttals. So thanks for your input on my posting habits. Since your new, there is an ignore user feature and a hide button. You're welcome to get familiar with them.
Quoting 1666. Grothar:


Yes, I think they should all be placed in front of all the city halls in the middle of each city where you could get an accurate reading. Why stick them out in open fields in shade away from the runways and jet traffic.


Your missing my point...I have not problem where they are now...but to compare things today where things was years ago .....IS PHONY STATS...IMO
Cayman Brac is currently experiencing the effects of the latest Tropical Wave to pass through the Caribbean.

Dark grey clouds all around (down to sea surface almost), scattered outbursts of heavy rain accompanied by short wind squalls (nothing dramatic really), thunder constantly growling and grumbling and the occasional lightning flash over the ocean.

Although dark as Hades, it brings a refreshing coolness with it that blows through the house.

Hoping TW will pass through by tomorrow morning otherwise my puddle jumper flight to Grand Cayman could be "interesting".

En route to the Big Apple after a few meetings in Grand Cayman - change of scenery, pace and, hopefully, a few good steaks but will monitor situation carefully so can activate persons to shutter the House if necessary.
Quoting 1675. TampaSpin:


Your missing my point...I have not problem where they are now...but to compare things today where things was years ago .....IS PHONY STATS...IMO


Here's the source for their methodology. Link

"The final adjustment is for an urban warming bias which uses the regression approach outlined in Karl, et al. (1988). The result of this adjustment is the "final" version of the data. Details on the urban warming adjustment are available in "Urbanization: Its Detection and Effect in the United States Climate Record" by Karl. T.R., et al., 1988, Journal of Climate 1:1099-1123. "


Edited to note: There is no bias with the satellite measured data sets which show the same trends.
Quoting 1653. Grothar:


It isn't really moving, but after you make me that hungry you expect me to answer you?

There is a very strong area of high pressure to its NW and a low to its SW. So I would assume it would move to the NE

.

However, the steering current could me it thusly.



Grothar, didn't mean to make you Hungry, but I am known for making some Lip Smakin Ribs and Tater Salad. Thank you for answering me.

sheri
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Crude Solution Part 1 came up for me using Chrome.


Could you watch the video or is it geo-blocked?
Quoting 1670. RapidInsanity:
Quoting 816. Naga5000:


It's unbelievable that if your so fed up with science and Dr. Master's expertise that you still come here to stir up trouble every day.



I have been reading this board for a long time and only recently signed up last week cause of 92l and Erin.

It seems to me YOU are the one stirring the pot. Yesterday you were on Viking's a**. Today you are starting with someone else.


And Naga's post was from yesterday - so why bring it back up this morning?

If you individually don't wish to believe the experts that are knowledgeable about the science, fine. Naga definitely did not stir the pot this morning.
Quoting 1662. Guysgal:
Heavy rain in Russia. Stay safe and dry Snowman! Link


That is an awesome side-by-side image comparison. Thanks for posting.
Quoting 1659. biff4ugo:
OK, last attempt to get an answer.

Last week had a 3 to 1 Low temperature records over high temperature records.
Does the Low mean Cold or minimum for the day?
It depends on how things are being calculated. For the truest, most accurate, and official information, go to the NCDC temperature records website. For the past week, it stacks up like this:

cpc

So over the past week, daily low records outnumbered daily high records across the US by 125 to 81 (1.54 to 1), while daily low maximum records outnumbered daily high minimum records by 595 to 105, or 5.7 to 1) Overall, that's 720 low records to 186 high ones, or about 3.9 to 1).

Keep in mind, the NCDC changed a few months back, and now hold off posting data for a day (that's why yesterday's numbers are missing). Too, records can trickle in for up to four days afterward. Given that it's been warmer over the past several days, then, while the cold blob has left the building, the past week's numbers won't be quite so lopsided once all is said and done.
Quoting 1679. AussieStorm:


Could you watch the video or is it geo-blocked?


Yes could watch after advertisement, they put the steering wheel on the wrong side in Ford ad. J/K
Source: Weather Underground, weekly weather roundup: video August 12-18, time 2 min 30 seconds into the video.

That is why I was asking here, on the underground.

As for the climate change due to moving a Rain gage one time near an airport... there was a review of the national weather gages used to estimate average weather conditions, specifically looking at heat island effects (like airports, parking lots, pavement, buildings and development around sensors). The few that had issues were removed and still the trends remain. If you are interested enough to complain, then read. Don't just watch fox news and listen to the 2 percent that say their might be a problem. That isn't an insult, it is facts and a suggestion.
Quoting 1653. Grothar:


It isn't really moving, but after you make me that hungry you expect me to answer you?

There is a very strong area of high pressure to its NW and a low to its SW. So I would assume it would move to the NE

.

However, the steering current could me it thusly.



Hmmm, so NE or NW?
Quoting 1677. Naga5000:


Here's the source for their methodology. Link

"The final adjustment is for an urban warming bias which uses the regression approach outlined in Karl, et al. (1988). The result of this adjustment is the "final" version of the data. Details on the urban warming adjustment are available in "Urbanization: Its Detection and Effect in the United States Climate Record" by Karl. T.R., et al., 1988, Journal of Climate 1:1099-1123. "



Thanks...I have already read thru it all but, to be off just a .10 of a degree is a big difference with some of these stats...I don't wanna start an argument or suggest things are being figged one way to support a cause, but merely pointing out others views.
Quoting 1661. SouthernIllinois:

TOTALLY hear ya. As an example Chicago official station was near the lake from the late 1880's till about 1950. Then the moved it to O'hare...which is inland about 15 miles. 15 miles away from the lake breeze makes a HUGE difference. It is very usual to see sticky temps in the low 90's inland and upper 70's near North Ave beach or Navy Pier. As they say up there...always cooler near the lake.


The same happens here in NW Florida. We'll be in the low 90's along the coast and inland near Crestview or lower Alabama they'll hit 100+. Of course I don't think that's happened this summer with all the rain, at least not yet!
1688. pcola57
Quoting 1667. AussieStorm:
Can someone check this link to see if the video if available and let me know. Cheers...

Video


Good Morning All..
Hey Aussie the video works for me and thanks for sharing it.. :)
Pewa is returning to a strengthening trend.
After T-numbers lessening to 1.5 during the last 24 hours, it has returned to T2.0, signaling Pewa is at least a tropical depression. Also, the ADT numbers have returned to 2.8, with Raw numbers up to 3.1. At this rate, slow strengthening is forecast until 72 hours. However, according to various forecasting centers (JTWC, JMA, KMA, etc.) a weak steering environment, along with higher wind shear and lowering SSTs are predicted to impact Pewa after 72 hours, making Pewa a minimal tropical storm again.

----- Current ADT Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2013 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 24:16:10 N Lon : 169:04:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1000.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.1 3.1

Center Temp : -39.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Thanks NEO!

Clear and easy for me to get. Confirming the cold records(low lopsidedness) last week.
Much appreciated. Good source.
Quoting 1675. TampaSpin:


Your missing my point...I have not problem where they are now...but to compare things today where things was years ago .....IS PHONY STATS...IMO


And Tampa, even scientists who were originally skeptics, based upon what you are saying - and were funded by groups resistant to the idea of AGW came up with the same conclusion. That the data is not flawed, and the conclusions are sound.

If you are interested, here is the LINK to the study

And the New York Times opinion piece written by one of the authors of the study: The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic
Y'all just need to calm down and throw the towel in. All of the polar ice is melting and we are all gonna drown if we don't get burnt to a crisp by the .1 average degree temperature increase over the next 100 years
Quoting 1573. Grothar:


In the Gulf it is getting very active. Just because there is nothing active near you is no reason to get nasty.



You're right
1694. Grothar
Quoting 1685. LAbonbon:


Hmmm, so NE or NW?


Hey, if everyone else on the blog can do it. I am bound to be right either way. :)
Quoting 1686. TampaSpin:



Thanks...I have already read thru it all but, to be off just a .10 of a degree is a big difference with some of these stats...I don't wanna start an argument or suggest things are being figged one way to support a cause, but merely pointing out others views.
Other views that have zero scientific evidence to support them. Your comment is something generally known as false equivalence.

1696. Grothar
Quoting 1693. CaribBoy:


You're right


Oh, so you want an argument! LOL I'll try and spin up something near you today.

Possible formation in the East Atlantic?
Just a hint of rotation maybe. Now please go NE little blob, we don't need you in the Western Panhandle!

Quoting 1694. Grothar:


Hey, if everyone else on the blog can do it. I am bound to be right either way. :)


Sure you can. But after I posted about my blue blue beautiful skies, you hinted that blob could head over here...

I admit it, I'm wishing it to go the other way :)
1700. Grothar
Quoting 1678. catastropheadjuster:


Grothar, didn't mean to make you Hungry, but I am known for making some Lip Smakin Ribs and Tater Salad. Thank you for answering me.

sheri



GRRRRRR! :)
Quoting 1696. Grothar:


Oh, so you want an argument! LOL I'll try and spin up something near you today.


That would make me feel sooo gooood !!!!
Quoting 1669. seer2012:


It looks like it may be starting to spin.


Oh my God, It's a spin, a spin. Everyoane..it's a SPIN. Do you people even know what that is....it is A SPIN!!!!!
Quoting 1692. PanhandleChuck:
Y'all just need to calm down and throw the towel in. All of the polar ice is melting and we are all gonna drown if we don't get burnt to a crisp by the .1 average degree temperature increase over the next 100 years
not giving up on my seaside condo bid in antarctica....don't worry. might have to wait a lil longer tho cuz i requested the 8th floor. figured I would be high enough from the sea rises then....
Ninth tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific confirmed...
123
WHXX01 KMIA 221431
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1431 UTC THU AUG 22 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (EP092013) 20130822 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130822 1200 130823 0000 130823 1200 130824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 111.5W 18.2N 112.6W 19.1N 113.9W 19.8N 114.8W
BAMD 17.0N 111.5W 17.9N 112.6W 18.9N 113.6W 20.1N 114.4W
BAMM 17.0N 111.5W 18.2N 112.5W 19.2N 113.5W 20.2N 114.4W
LBAR 17.0N 111.5W 18.0N 112.6W 19.3N 113.7W 20.5N 115.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130824 1200 130825 1200 130826 1200 130827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 115.1W 23.6N 114.2W 27.3N 114.5W 29.4N 115.5W
BAMD 21.3N 115.0W 24.6N 115.7W 28.2N 116.4W 31.5N 116.7W
BAMM 21.2N 114.8W 24.5N 114.7W 28.2N 115.0W 31.4N 115.6W
LBAR 21.8N 116.2W 25.7N 117.9W 31.6N 117.1W 39.6N 113.8W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 111.5W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 111.0W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 110.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep092013.ren 22-Aug-2013 14:30 2.2K
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes could watch after advertisement, they put the steering wheel on the wrong side in Ford ad. J/K


Did you watch part 1 and part 2, is the information contained in this program known over there?
Quoting 1698. 69Viking:
Just a hint of rotation maybe. Now please go NE little blob, we don't need you in the Western Panhandle!



Not sure of the rest of NE Florida region, but here in Jax we're only 2" above average for the year so the blob moving NE would be a safer route.

Nice steady rain happening now, been so for about 20 minutes.
Quoting 1698. 69Viking:
Just a hint of rotation maybe. Now please go NE little blob, we don't need you in the Western Panhandle!


Now is the time where I REALLY need your wish to come TRUE Viking!!
Quoting 1698. 69Viking:
Just a hint of rotation maybe. Now please go NE little blob, we don't need you in the Western Panhandle!



Hint of rotation with a lot of outflow characteristics (meaning don't expect development anytime soon).
But anyways, that's a lot of rain that could be headed up into the already soaked Panhandle.
Quoting 1691. daddyjames:



And Tampa, even scientists who were originally skeptics, based upon what you are saying - and were funded by groups resistant to the idea of AGW came up with the same conclusion. That the data is not flawed, and the conclusions are sound.

If you are interested, here is the LINK to the study

And the New York Times opinion piece written by one of the authors of the study: The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic



Fixed the link to the study.
Quoting 1706. AussieStorm:


Did you watch part 1 and part 2, is the information contained in this program known over there?


I did not watch the whole video, just confirmed for you that I could watch it.
Quoting 1702. matara28:


Oh my God, It's a spin, a spin. Everyoane..it's a SPIN. Do you people even know what that is....it is A SPIN!!!!!

Are you talking about the feature or this blog?
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning All..
Hey Aussie the video works for me and thanks for sharing it.. :)


Did you also watch part 2. Here are a few more video's from that program. Link
Quoting 1695. misanthrope:
Other views that have zero scientific evidence to support them. Your comment is something generally known as false equivalence.



I can except that...I have done NO scientific data to support what my mind thinks. My mind I know is a flawed piece already...:)
Quoting 1702. matara28:


Oh my God, It's a spin, a spin. Everyoane..it's a SPIN. Do you people even know what that is....it is A SPIN!!!!!


Do you get that excited about Tampa's avatar?
1716. pcola57
Quoting 1713. AussieStorm:


Did you also watch part 2. Here are a few more video's from that program. Link


Am watching it now Aussie..
Good stuff..
MDR looks like a dead zone
Quoting 1712. SouthernIllinois:

Are you talking about the feature or this blog?


No, i'm talking about a few users of this blog. Their brains are spinning and they believe that they are meteorologists.
1719. SLU
Now down to 0.802

Quoting 1718. matara28:


No, i'm talking about a few users of this blog. Their brains are spinning and they believe that they are meteorologists.

Well DUH. That's what we ALL do on here!!! Especially me. ;)
Quoting 1719. SLU:
Now down to 0.802

Good morning everyone. What is the threshold for a weak La Nina?
Quoting 1720. SouthernIllinois:

Well DUH. That's what we ALL do on here!!! Especially me. ;)


Noting like pointing out the obvious, right?

Catch you all later. Don't be misled by the haters.
Quoting 1719. SLU:
Now down to 0.802


Does it mean it's La Nina now?
Quoting 1720. SouthernIllinois:

Well DUH. That's what we ALL do on here!!! Especially me. ;)


Ok.
Quoting 1722. daddyjames:


Noting like pointing out the obvious, right?

Catch you all later. Don't be misled by the haters.

Nah. I chase the flowers and sun. And roses. My girly side. I know. :)
Quoting 1721. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone. What is the threshold for a weak La Nina?


Pretty sure it's three consecutive months of -0.5C below normal. Will have to keep monitoring this to see if it is a trend toward La Nina.
Quoting 1720. SouthernIllinois:

Well DUH. That's what we ALL do on here!!! Especially me. ;)


matara28 will take that personal....LOL
Wait until an actual hurricane forms. Everyone and their dog knows exactly where its going to make landfall (well at least until they see the next model runs - lol).
My dog already picks Panama City for the first hurricane of the season.
1729. Patrap
Quoting 1667. AussieStorm:
Can someone check this link to see if the video if available and let me know. Cheers...

Video


Use the preview comment next to the Post comment and you can preview the link yourself aussie.

I usually do with a link to make sure it wont re-direct.
trending towards la nina and the atlantic is dead. wow. it better pick up soon
Quoting 1726. Stoopid1:


Pretty sure it's three consecutive months of -0.5C below normal. Will have to keep monitoring this to see if it is a trend toward La Nina.
Thank you for answering that, it may now be just a matter of time before the EPAC season shuts down and everything moves over towards the Atlantic.
Quoting 1709. Sfloridacat5:


Hint of rotation with a lot of outflow characteristics (meaning don't expect development anytime soon).
But anyways, that's a lot of rain that could be headed up into the already soaked Panhandle.


Yeah everything in the Gulf seems to be drifting West, not looking good for another weekend on the beaches formerly referred to as the Emerald Coast! With all of our rains this summer it's now the Chocolate Coast!

1733. Grothar
Quoting 1701. CaribBoy:


That would make me feel sooo gooood !!!!


This is as close as I could get, but I will have a good one for you this week.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 22
Location: 17.5°N 111.6°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

INIT 22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Quoting pcola57:


Am watching it now Aussie..
Good stuff..


I wouldn't say it was "good" more like oh what the !!!
1736. jpsb
Quoting 1657. bjrabbit:


If we all just agreed with each other, this world would be a boring place.



Well I think one thing that we can agree with, which is at this point an indisputable fact, is that the computer models predicting an increase in atmospheric temperature were wrong since there has been no warming for 15+ years. And sadly for the pro AGW people a lot of "the science" was the (failed) computer models. One a personal note, July and this August seems unusually cool to me here in S.E. Texas
1737. Grothar


The one good thing about the Internet, is that you can find someone to hate much faster than you could before.
Quoting Patrap:


Use the preview comment next to the Post comment and you can preview the link yourself aussie.

I usually do with a link to make sure it wont re-direct.


I was wanting to find out if the video was geo-blocked. I can't check that. Pat, you should watch that video.
Quoting 1723. Bobbyweather:

Does it mean it's La Nina now?
If it stay like this for three months, yes.

EDIT: It's not official La Nina since effects takes months to show up. However, if we stay below 0.5 C line for three straight months, yes we will be in La Nina. No effect on hurricane season though until November if that's the case I understand it correctly.
Trough going off the East coast doesn't appear strong enough to take our GOM Blob off to the NE. Need that next trough to get moving and pick it up so we can have a dry weekend.

The Atlantic Hurricane season is a late bloomer this year. I expect mid-September through late October to be extremely busy out there and on this blog.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Does it mean it's La Nina now?




No, but if it continues, we could soon be.

Negative IOD remains the key Australian climate influence

Issued on Tuesday 13 August 2013

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) clearly remains in the neutral phase despite some indicators (e.g. eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line) approaching La Nina thresholds at times in recent months.
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate further cooling of waters in the tropical Pacific is unlikely. Hence, the current ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the austral spring and into summer.

In the tropical Indian Ocean, sea surface temperature patterns remain consistent with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event. The IOD index has been below the threshold value of -0.4C since mid-May, though values have eased back over the past three weeks. The majority of climate models expect this negative IOD event to persist until at least mid-spring. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, while over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity. A negative IOD can also contribute to below-average mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Darwin, which may in turn raise the value of the SOI.
1745. jpsb
Quoting 1667. AussieStorm:
Can someone check this link to see if the video if available and let me know. Cheers...

Video
Linked worked for me, slow but it worked
Quoting 1737. Grothar:


The one good thing about the Internet, is that you can find someone to hate much faster than you could before.


LMAO, how true! Some people just like pick and poke, I guess it's in their nature. Now command your GOM Blob to go East or NE please!
Quoting Grothar:


The one good thing about the Internet, is that you can find someone to hate much faster than you could before.


I just look in the mirror. :-(
Quoting 1712. SouthernIllinois:

Are you talking about the feature or this blog?

Yes. And thank you for asking!
1964 Dora, many including myself would have thought that this one was going OTS:



1964 finished with 12 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 6 Major Hurricanes. It also was a weak La Nina season. Cleo became the first hurricane on August 21, 1964. That year saw 3 Major Hurricanes make landfall in FL. (Cleo, Dora, and Isbell.)

Link
Off to meteorology classes now.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..



OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.



the E PAC is on a roll this year
1752. Grothar
Quoting 1746. 69Viking:


LMAO, how true! Some people just like pick and poke, I guess it's in their nature. Now command your GOM Blob to go East or NE please!


I'll narrow it down for you. I expect it to move anywhere from the keys to Guatemala.
Quoting 1727. TampaSpin:


matara28 will take that personal....LOL


No. It amuses me, becasue the quantity of bloggers increased, but the quality decreases rapidly. Everyone make predictions and reads models but 90% of the forecasts are for a parallel universe.
Not to mantion that are so many arrogants. This blog was way more authentic a few years ago.
Quoting 1748. NEFLWATCHING:

Yes. And thank you for asking!

You more more than welcome. Thank you for watching it closely. :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1753. matara28:


No. It amuses me, becasue the quantity of bloggers increased, but the quality decreases rapidly. Everyone make predictions and reads models but 90% of the forecasts are for a parallel universe.
Not to mantion that are so many arrogants. This blog was way more authentic a few years ago.

Oh no, it's much BETTER now. The quality has risen exponentially. The predictions are great! I must politely disagree with you if that is okay. ;) I hope I make it better!
Quoting 1736. jpsb:



Well I think one thing that we can agree with, which is at this point an indisputable fact, is that the computer models predicting an increase in atmospheric temperature were wrong since there has been no warming for 15+ years. And sadly for the pro AGW people a lot of "the science" was the (failed) computer models. One a personal note, July and this August seems unusually cool to me here in S.E. Texas


Untrue. "Global temperature is currently tracking the lower end of the temperature range predicted by the latest generation of climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - and scientists have speculated about the reasons why.

But as a counter-example, research just published in the journal Nature Geoscience provides an example of one model getting it spot-on. The paper compares a Met Office climate forecast made in 1999 against actual temperature data up to 2012 - and shows they match to within a few hundredths of a degree." Link

Some models over exaggerated land warming while under preforming on ocean temps, some models were spot on.
Quoting 1737. Grothar:


The one good thing about the Internet, is that you can find someone to hate much faster than you could before.

Where else can you "sit down" at a table and have interaction with hundreds of people,each with their own idiotsyncracies and push buttons that trip their trigger.? Definitly some interesting personal dynamics go on here. Some folks here need deliverance!
Quoting 1756. SouthernIllinois:

I hope I make it better! Oh no, it's much BETTER now. The quality has risen exponentially. The predictions are great! I must politely disagree with you if that is okay. ;)


It's ok.
Quoting 1759. matara28:


It's ok.

So glad. You had me worried there for a minute!!!
Quoting 1760. SouthernIllinois:

So glad. You had me worried there for a minute!!!


You worried for nothing.
Quoting 1706. AussieStorm:


Did you watch part 1 and part 2, is the information contained in this program known over there?


WOW - thanks for posting. I watched parts 1 and 2. I have not seen this information, maybe others have.

Major surprises:

1) CoRexit + crude = 52x the toxicity
2) take a dip in the Gulf, and it's absorbed in your skin

Remaining questions - what about the seafood??? Lots of people here eat Gulf seafood on a regular basis.

I can't begin to say how angry this video has made me. I'm thinking emails to my Congressional delegation are in order.

Quoting 1761. matara28:


You worried for nothing.

That's what my photographer keeps telling me. ;)
1764. Grothar
Quoting 1758. seer2012:

Where else can you "sit down" at a table and have interaction with hundreds of people,each with their own idiotsyncracies and push buttons that trip their trigger.? Definitly some interesting personal dynamics go on here. Some folks here need deliverance!


"Hallelujah".

I just never understood why people would deliberately want to hurt perfect strangers.
Quoting 1669. seer2012:


It looks like it may be starting to spin.


Is the panhandle blob moving West?
Quoting 1736. jpsb:
Well I think one thing that we can agree with, which is at this point an indisputable fact, is that the computer models predicting an increase in atmospheric temperature were wrong since there has been no warming for 15 years.
Your loaded claim gets ignored from the get-go, because your "no warming for 15 years" is false. The only way it can be fudged into being true is if you completely ignore natural variability and start from the hottest months of an outlier year, and instead of doing true linear regression, you just cherry pick the start and end points to draw the line.
This is a massive fail even for introductory statistics.
Quoting 1736. jpsb:

...for the pro AGW people a lot of "the science" was the ... computer models.

No, this is not remotely accurate. The fact that you believe it to be true says not alot about climate science and quite a bit about you lack of climate science understanding.
Quoting 1736. jpsb:

One a personal note, July and this August seems unusually cool to me here in S.E. Texas

Hope you are enjoying the nice weather in Texas.
1767. Grothar
Quoting 1763. SouthernIllinois:

That's what my photographer keeps telling me. ;)



Oh, please!!!!!!
Quoting 1767. Grothar:



Oh, please!!!!!!

Hey I'm allowed to josh every now and then, no????
1769. pcola57
Quoting 1735. AussieStorm:


I wouldn't say it was "good" more like oh what the !!!


Agreed Aussie..
I've never seen this report before..
By saying "Good stuff" I meant informative and un-biased..
The GOM Blob appears to be waning now.
Hope we get some rain today!!! Rained all around me yesterday , just not in my area.
No low level reflection with the GOM mass of colorful clouds.
new blog people !!!
1774. 7544
dry air in the atlantic seems to be slowly fading sill 9 days left till sept so i could see 1 strom forming before the end of this month but watch out for sept and watch the numbers play catch up time imo
1775. Xulonn
Quoting 1661. SouthernIllinois:

TOTALLY hear ya. As an example Chicago official station was near the lake from the late 1880's till about 1950. Then the moved it to O'hare...which is inland about 15 miles. 15 miles away from the lake breeze makes a HUGE difference. It is very usual to see sticky temps in the low 90's inland and upper 70's near North Ave beach or Navy Pier. As they say up there...always cooler near the lake.
C'mon Natalie, surely you are aware that climate scientists know that temperature recording station siting is an issue and absolutely and positively account for it. And they certainly do not categorize them by their name, but their precise location. So your Chicago two different stations would be treated as two different locations. The myth of "biased temperature readings due to the siting of recording thermometers" is a climate denialist talking point supported and promoted by the fossil fuel denialist disinformation campaign, and I'm surprised that you fall for such obvious denialist claptrap.

You seem to be pretty intelligent, so I'm sure you can comprehend the below info from SkepticalScience.com. In fact, there are three discussions there - basic, intermediate and advanced. But don't visit the Skeptical Science website unless you want facts and scientific reality - you will lose a lot of credibility if you read it and then come back and post the same myths. However, I have faith in you and believe that you are actually interested in learning, and not just trying to be part of the AGW/GW denialist in-crowd here at Dr. Master's blog. You are are welcome to join the scientific realists here - no exclusions - you just need a desire to continue learning about science and what it teaches us. We're a bit more serious and not a bunch of happy, clappy, fun-seeking weather nerds (although some of the climate-science crowd are also weather nerds and enjoy tracking and trying to understand tropical weather as well.)

Quoting SkepticalScience.com:
The skeptic argument: Temp record is unreliable!!
"We found [U.S. weather] stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.
In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating or radiating/reflecting heat source." (Watts 2009)

What the science says...
Numerous studies into the effect of urban heat island effect and microsite influences find they have negligible effect on long-term trends, particularly when averaged over large regions.

The goal of improving temperature data is something we can all agree on and on this point, the efforts of Anthony Watts and Steve McIntyre are laudable. However, their presupposition that improving temperature records will remove or significantly lower the global warming trend is erroneous.

Adjusting for urban heat island effect: When compiling temperature records, NASA's GISS goes to great pains to remove any possible influence from urban heat island effect. They compare urban long-term trends to nearby rural trends. They then adjust the urban trend so it matches the rural trend. The process is described in detail on the NASA website.

They found in most cases, urban warming was small and fell within uncertainty ranges. Surprisingly, 42% of city trends are cooler relative to their country surroundings as weather stations are often sited in cool islands (a park within the city). The point is they're aware of UHI and rigorously adjust for it when analyzing temperature records.

Other lines of evidence for rising temperatures - the surface temperature trends are also confirmed from multiple, independent sources: Surface temperature analysis by NASA GISS finds strong agreement with two independent analyses by CRU's Global Temperature Record and NCDC.

Weather balloon measurements have found from 1975 through 2005, the global mean, near-surface air temperature warmed by approximately 0.23°C/decade.

Satellite measurements of lower atmosphere temperatures show temperature rises between 0.16°C and 0.24°C/decade since 1982.

Ice core reconstructions found the 20th century to be the warmest of the past five centuries, confirming the results of earlier proxy reconstructions.

Sea surface temperatures, borehole reconstructions and ocean temperatures all show long-term warming trends.

Reanalysis data sets also show the same warming trend. A ‘reanalysis’ is a climate or weather model simulation of the past that incorporates data from historical observations. Reanalysis comparisons by Vose et al. (2012) and Compo et al. (2013) find nearly identical global surface warming trends as in the instrumental record.

A paper by Anderson et al. (2012) also created a new global surface temperature record reconstruction using 173 records with some type of physical or biological link to global surface temperatures (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, and historical documents). The study compared their reconstruction to the instrumental temperature record and found a strong correlation between the two.


Remember that there is not a single established and respected scientific society, organization or association in the entire world that does not accept AGW/CC as a scientific reality. Unfortunately, many WU-per denialists seem to be unable to read about and understand climate science, and sadly, continue to spout soundly dis-proven denialist myths, urban legends and non-scientific opinions that have no basis in reality. The rest of the world has moved on, and climate science now studies AGW/CC and doesn't waste time "debating" its reality - because it is real. To use a legal analogy, AGW/CC has been proven beyond any reasonable doubt by a preponderance of evidence.
Quoting 1703. SouthernIllinois:
not giving up on my seaside condo bid in antarctica....don't worry. might have to wait a lil longer tho cuz i requested the 8th floor. figured I would be high enough from the sea rises then....


Good to see you have a plan Nat, you should be able to sit out on your balcony in January and get a wicked sweet tan!
Quoting 1776. PanhandleChuck:


Good to see you have a plan Nat, you should be able to sit out on your balcony in January and get a wicked sweet tan!

We are all next door in a new blog. Drinks are on me this go around. ;)

TOTALLY....I'll be able to have and keep it year round too if my old wrinkly skin could take it by that time. haha
there has been a NEW BLOG up for an hour ..
Joe Bastardi doesn't believe these super storms like Sandy are caused by Global climate change. Where do you stand?
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
The Next Hurricane, and the Next http://nyti.ms/16XtYKB
This is nonsense. Current not yet nearly as bad as 1950s!


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
NYT complicit in pushing misinformation about hurricanes. Sandy is FAR LESS than worst case for NYC, e 1938 hurricane 75 miles further west

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
For years, many hurricane forecasters have been warning about the return of hurricanes to east coast. So now its climate change?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
NYT ignorant of facts and arrogant to believe they are exposing issue we all have been waiting for, with this cycle, similar to 1950s

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
MJO swinging into phases that after plains heat wave, will set hurricane season off. Natural, forecastable occurrences.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
US East coast may be threatened Sept 5-12 as pattern ripens to pull in what will become a much more African wave pattern for a few weeks

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Very similar look to 1999 season which sent Dennis, Floyd and then Irene (1999)
along east coast

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
The current heightened period of hurricanes for the east coast has 5-7 more years to run, then its back to the 60s-80s as amo cools

1789. beell
Quoting 1778. whitewabit:
there has been a NEW BLOG up for an hour ..


Something ain't working right.
Where do you stand-Al Gore climate change caused by us) or Joe Bastardi(mother nature)