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The Atlantic Goes Quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2013

There are no tropical disturbances of note in the Atlantic today. The tropical wave off the coast of Africa (94L) that we were watching on Sunday has become too disorganized to be a threat to develop. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic this week. In the Eastern Pacific, there is a tropical disturbance several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico that most of the models predict will develop by Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% of developing by Tuesday, and an 80% chance of developing by Saturday. The GFS and European models predict that this will become a tropical storm that will pass close to the tip of Baja on Friday or Saturday, respectively.


Figure 1. The third week of August is when Atlantic hurricane activity traditionally takes a large upswing, but that will not be the case in 2013.

We've had five named storms so far in the Atlantic this year, which is more that average for this point in the season. Usually, the fifth named storm does not arrive until August 31. However, we are well behind average for the arrival of the season's first hurricane, which usually occurs by August 10. The season's second hurricane usually arrives by August 28. It is questionable if we will see the season's first hurricane by that date, given the current lack of activity, the dry air moving across the Tropical Atlantic, and the lack of model predictions for tropical storm formation this week. Still, I'm not willing to downgrade the seasonal forecasts for above-average activity yet, as we are still three weeks away from the usual September 10 peak in activity, and the Atlantic is capable of getting very active in a hurry.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 992. beell:
It's only a forecast, but perhaps not the best one for redevelopment of xErin. A westward moving storm heading into at least moderately strong westerly winds.

200-850mb zonal shear


Hardly expect it to make it, but strange things happen. Maybe sneaking in on the southeast side of the stronger shear? Still, way too much dry air, subsidence.
Quoting 941. BahaHurican:
Agreed, Hydrus... I remember being amazed not only by Lenny's track but also by its intensity so late in the year... I bet CaribBoy wouldn't be keen to see that near cat 5 barreling down on him....


And you're perfectly right!

Look at this one... it is much more recent and had a crazy wrong way track too xD





The 00z update of the models for 94E.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0225 UTC TUE AUG 20 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20130820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130820 0000 130820 1200 130821 0000 130821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 107.7W 13.9N 108.9W 14.2N 109.8W 14.6N 110.7W
BAMD 13.4N 107.7W 13.9N 108.8W 14.3N 109.6W 14.6N 110.4W
BAMM 13.4N 107.7W 13.8N 108.8W 14.0N 109.5W 14.1N 110.2W
LBAR 13.4N 107.7W 13.9N 109.1W 14.6N 110.6W 15.2N 112.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130822 0000 130823 0000 130824 0000 130825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 111.4W 17.6N 112.7W 20.3N 113.3W 23.4N 114.5W
BAMD 15.1N 111.2W 16.8N 112.9W 19.3N 114.2W 22.4N 115.0W
BAMM 14.5N 110.9W 16.6N 112.0W 20.2N 112.3W 24.3N 113.2W
LBAR 16.1N 114.1W 18.1N 117.5W 20.3N 120.1W 23.5N 121.1W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 73KTS 66KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 73KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 107.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 106.5W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 104.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting 924. jazzygal:
I remember Betsy as if it was yesterday. I was only 10. I thought we were going to die that night. We could only see out of a hole through the wood on the window in my brother's room. I will never forget those winds and the rain. We were lucky. My Godfather, his wife and 2 children lived in St. Bernard. The water rose so fast. They broke the window in the their bathroom. The boats were coming up to evacuate children only. They put their daughter out into the boat. By the time they turned around to reach their son, another boat had come up. They put him on it. They did not realize if was a different boat. They went on their roof until they were finally rescued. They at least thought their children were together. They found their son a few days later at a shelter. They did not found their daughter until a week later. She was at a different shelter. They thought they lost her for good. You did not evacuate then. I know my family will never stay for a storm. Not worth it!


Wow, what a horrifying experience! I am relieved to read that at least everybody lived.

I would never stay for a hurricane in a surge zone either. I am in it for the wind (and rain), but do not want to have to worry about drowning. Even with wind speed, I have my limits. I would not stay for Andrew 20 miles inland.
1005. Patrap
977. jazzygal

Losing loved ones is always hard on ones soul.

Mine passed in March and Aug 03, so in a way they didnt live to see the city drowned they loved so much.

Healing has come in many ways here and the coast.

As well in S. Fla too from K.

From the Simple Blocked punt the night the Dome Sept 06 reopened.

People in the Terrace Seats said they felt the Dome jump.

I swear.



To new Levee Protection,

We all will never forget the losses, counted and not.

It comes around now,in late August,come the 29th when we step out and ring the bells, and know for whom it truly tolls.


17th Street Canal,Bridge in Bucktown, reading of the lost, names.


Aug 29th, 2006 first KATRINA anniversary, the breach site.

Video from wunderblogger WETBANKGUY.










Quoting 935. MiamiHurricanes09:
Whenever we start to see this type of consistency from the ECMWF in the Atlantic is when I'll start to buy into the season taking off.


Whenever I see this level of an MJO pulse going through our basin by the ECMWF and it doesn't even show much in the way of increased moisture in our basin it makes me question whether or not the ECMWF has an accurate handle on the situation. This is the same model that called for an El Nino the last two years. Who knows, I'd love to be proven wrong by the ECMWF. It ain't gospel though.
Quoting 980. Skyepony:
Erin remnants ~19N 45W. He's been moving WSW since he lost his convection. Two day loop. Click pic to loop that..



I'm not trying to correct anyone but I'm confused. I thought Dorian was a He. So shouldn't Erin be a She? I originally thought that Dorian was a she because I have a good friend and his wife's name is Dorian. Oh lord this is so bothersome lol.
Quoting 973. Patrap:


Just click the you tube icon on the bottom right of the embed and it will take you to the url itself, or hit "quote" and get it in the comment box as well.

; )


Thank you. Saved them. Learn something new everyday!

Quoting 971. seer2012:

For the moment I made a link to my blog and it seemed to take. I also notice it has a youtube address.


Thank You also!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032013
500 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013

...THREE-C MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 176.3W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WNW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032013
500 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THREE-C HAS BEEN PULSING DURING
THE DAY WITH THE LATEST BURST OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CAME IN AT 25 TO 30
KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.
LIKE OTHER RECENT CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS...PEWA AND UNALA...
THREE-C IS RATHER SMALL. IT IS ALSO THE EASTERNMOST CYCLONE WITHIN
A PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THREE-C IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PUTS IT WITHIN HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST. THE LARGE-SCALE
DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AND MAY BE THE MAIN REASON WHY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL
OBJECTIVE AIDS MAINTAIN THREE-C NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS. GIVEN NO
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM/S ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
PROJECTS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT AROUND 36 HOURS AND THEN
DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.8N 176.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 178.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 179.1E 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 176.4E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
1012. Grothar
1013. beell
Quoting 1001. moonlightcowboy:


Hardly expect it to make it, but strange things happen. Maybe sneaking in on the southeast side of the stronger shear? Still, way too much dry air, subsidence.


Gonna be tough to hang on to convection and it may spin all the way down to nil....but as long as there is a spin!
Quoting Patrap:
977. jazzygal

Losing loved ones is always hard on ones soul.

Mine passed in March and Aug 03, so in a way they didnt live to see the city drowned they loved so much.

Healing has come in many ways here and the coast.

As well in S. Fla too from K.

From the Simple Blocked punt the night the Dome Sept 06 reopened.

People in the Terrace Seats said they felt the Dome jump.

I swear.



To new Levee Protection,

We all will never forget the losses, counted and not.

It comes around now,in late August,come the 29th when we step out and ring the bells, and know for whom it truly tolls.


17th Street Canal,Bridge in Bucktown, reading of the lost, names.


Aug 29th, 2006 first KATRINA anniversary, the breach site.

Video from wunderblogger WETBANKGUY.












Have you heard what happened to Steve Gleason, Pat?
Quoting 998. CybrTeddy:
969. Growing up, I was actually far more interested in tornadoes than I was hurricanes. If I had to pin a hurricane though, I'd say it was Hurricane Andrew that got me interested in tropical cyclones when I was a kid.

Same. A hail storm one afternoon actually got me interested in weather. I think bypassing Hurricane Alex in 2004 got me interested in hurricanes though. Watching Katrina on The Weather Channel if not.


...smoke of a distant fire
1017. airmet3
Quoting 1007. HimacaneBrees:


I'm not trying to correct anyone but I'm confused. I thought Dorian was a He. So shouldn't Erin be a She? I originally thought that Dorian was a she because I have a good friend and his wife's name is Dorian. Oh lord this is so bothersome lol.

You are correct. Erin was a she.
1018. txjac
Quoting 1000. txjac:


Trying this ...havent done the peanut butter yet! Thanks!


Totally funny ...his name is Peanut
Quoting 913. UNThurricane2019:

The Castro brothers let you into Cuba for Paloma? Somehow I don't quite believe...


Paloma hit Cayman Brac before Cuba!
Quoting 1018. txjac:


Totally funny ...his name is Peanut

Success?
1021. Patrap
Quoting 1014. caneswatch:


Have you heard what happened to Steve Gleason, Pat?


Indeed, we all know.

He contracted ALS and is a inspiration to dedication, courage and commitment, and is fighting his disease as well and raising awareness of it.

I have met him personally.


A true Hero.




Team Gleason is a wunderful organization and I encourage all who can to donate.

www.teamgleason.org

And we have his play immortalized on the Dome's front Plaza.




He is our Hero Saint.





Forever.
1022. txjac
Quoting 1020. SunnyDaysFla:

Success?


Not yet ....
Quoting 1005. Patrap:
977. jazzygal

Losing loved ones is always hard on ones soul.

Mine passed in March and Aug 03, so in a way they didnt live to see the city drowned they loved so much.

Healing has come in many ways here and the coast.

As well in S. Fla too from K.

From the Simple Blocked punt the night the Dome Sept 06 reopened.

People in the Terrace Seats said they felt the Dome jump.

I swear.



To new Levee Protection,

We all will never forget the losses, counted and not.

It comes around now,in late August,come the 29th when we step out and ring the bells, and know for whom it truly tolls.


17th Street Canal,Bridge in Bucktown, reading of the lost, names.


Aug 29th, 2006 first KATRINA anniversary, the breach site.

Video from wunderblogger WETBANKGUY.












I agree Pat. I came back in town for the 1ST Anniv. Would not have missed it. Dad was a big Saints fan. Never missed a game. Had his tickets since the first game. He died 10 weeks before the Superbowl. Never got to see them win the big one but he knew in his heart that they were going to win that year. I cried so hard we they won, not just for the Saints, the fans, the city but for Dad. He would have loved to have been there but we know he had a front row seat. I saw the Atlanta game on TV. came in town the next day. Wishing I would have come in earlier for that game. What that game did for the city!
I am praying for no storms. Mom has her Cancer surgery next Tues the 27TH at EJ Hosp. We had to sign papers that they would evacuate her for a storm. Told them they better and not put her on I10. Her kids will be with her. If there is a storm and she can be moved, she will be with me in my car heading North. I don't want to be in EJ Hosp. during a storm. Keep praying for no storms! :)
1024. txjac
Quoting 1022. txjac:


Not yet ....


Just got the perfect combination of peanut butter, cheese and chicken ...and it all went down. Poor baby had to have two pins put in ...6 week recovery
Quoting 1018. txjac:


Totally funny ...his name is Peanut

LaughingCowCheese---soft,like..creamcheese
Quoting 1024. txjac:


Just got the perfect combination of peanut butter, cheese and chicken ...and it all went down. Poor baby had to have two pins put in ...6 week recovery

Yipee!
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed, we all know.

He contracted ALS and is a inspiration to dedication, courage and commitment, and is fighting his disease as well and raising awareness of it.

I have met him personally.


A true Hero.




Team Gleason is a wunderful organization and I encourage all who can to donate.

www.teamgleason.org

And we have his play immortalized on the Dome's front Plaza.




He is our Hero Saint.





Forever.


Such a great guy who brought and still does bring hope to so many. When I saw him in this year's draft, I was shocked to see what happened to him. My neighbor just recently passed away from ALS, and it's complete sadness to see what the people who suffer from it go through. His charity is bringing nothing but good hope to those who have it.
1028. Patrap
Mom has her Cancer surgery next Tues the 27TH at EJ Hosp

A prayer will be said in St. Louis Cathedral for her,I have some Business near there tomorrow.

I always lite a candle or 3 when I'm there.







Quoting 969. slavicthunder:
Question for the blog community: which hurricane was the first hurricane to get you interested in tropical cyclones??

Mine is Hugo. Prior to the CNN era, Hugo seemed to still garner a lot of media coverage for the time. I was 14 years old. I wondered how those TV reporters could stand out there in that torrent.


Hurricane Greta - Belize - Sep 78 if I recall - sheltered with my troops in the Base Swimming Pool changing rooms - Power lines falling into Pool made an impressive display - but more memorable was sheer effort to get out Harriers to Key West - in those days those Jets did NOT have long range and Cuba did NOT appreciate military combat jets in their airspace!!

A lot of effort to batten down all in-country bases and then, even more quickly, get them back up to operational status again, whilst also performing a critical part of the relief and aid effort (immediate aid flown in from Panam, longer term stuff from UK)to Dangriga which received worst damage.
1030. txjac
Quoting 1028. Patrap:
Mom has her Cancer surgery next Tues the 27TH at EJ Hosp

A prayer will be said in St. Louis Cathedral for her,I have some Business near there tomorrow.

I always lite a candle or 3 when I'm there.









I love you guys so much ..such truly caring people on this blog ...this is always why I come here ..you guys are totally like family to me

I must admit that I have had a couple of wonderful glasses of merlot ...feeling sentimental ....

edit ...correct spelling ...lol
1031. Dakster
Quoting 1007. HimacaneBrees:


I'm not trying to correct anyone but I'm confused. I thought Dorian was a He. So shouldn't Erin be a She? I originally thought that Dorian was a she because I have a good friend and his wife's name is Dorian. Oh lord this is so bothersome lol.


We need to put genitalia on the storms so we know for sure.
Quoting 1015. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Same. A hail storm one afternoon actually got me interested in weather. I think bypassing Hurricane Alex in 2004 got me interested in hurricanes though. Watching Katrina on The Weather Channel if not.


That must've been a hail of a time!

Edit: Couldn't resist.
Bloggers still waits for the first hurricane in Atlantic. It will rather occur in Mediterranean sea than in Atlantic Ocean.
Quoting 1028. Patrap:
Mom has her Cancer surgery next Tues the 27TH at EJ Hosp

A prayer will be said in St. Louis Cathedral for her,I have some Business near there tomorrow.

I always lite a candle or 3 when I'm there.









WOW, thanks Pat. I will tell her. She has Stage 4 and about a year left. Stomach and Lung Cancer. They are going to remove the tumor in her stomach. Relief for her so she can eat. I hope we are doing the right thing but she is a fighter and no one really can say how long a person has.
You know... I'm a long time member/lurker. I don't comment much. But, I'm a professional meteorologist who just enjoys reading different points of view. I'm usually not on here much except when I'm really looking for different opinions on tropical forecasting, because we truly have some quality forecasters on here.

But, tonight, you can really see the family-like atmosphere on here between fellow WU people. Great night with some great reads and thought-provoking posts. Hope everyone has a great night.
EP, 94, 2013082000, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1077W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,
Quoting 913. UNThurricane2019:

The Castro brothers let you into Cuba for Paloma? Somehow I don't quite believe...


As an aside, we (I am a Brit - but am a bit like an adopted Bracker now having been here quite a few years), like most countries in the world, have NO problems going to Cuba and, indeed, have regular scheduled jet flights there.
1038. Dakster
I wish you and your mother the best!!! I went thru the 'C' word with my Father years back. Thankfully he survived it. (knock on wood)

But there was a period of time where it was touch and go.
Quoting 970. hydrus:
This was a weird and nasty little storm for Florida.
Hurricane Irene was a hurricane that produced somewhat heavy damage across southern Florida during the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season. The ninth tropical storm and the sixth hurricane of the season, Irene developed in the western Caribbean Sea on October 13 from a tropical wave. It moved northward, hitting western Cuba before attaining hurricane status. Irene struck Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, moved across the state, and moved northward over the Gulf Stream. It approached the Carolinas but remained offshore. Irene turned eastward, and rapidly intensified to reach Category 2 hurricane status before becoming extratropical due to cooler waters.The hurricane first produced heavy rainfall across western Cuba, causing four deaths and damage. Irene was a wet Florida hurricane in October, similar to many hurricanes of the 1930s and 1940s. It later dropped 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm) of rainfall in the Miami metropolitan area, causing urban flooding unseen since Hurricane Dennis in 1981. Despite being only a Category 1 hurricane, Irene caused eight indirect deaths and $800 million (1999 USD)[nb 1] in damage across Florida.

The hurricane produced flooding and caused one death in the northwestern Bahamas. In North Carolina and Virginia, Irene produced heavy rainfall of over 10 inches (255 mm), adding more flooding after previous Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd. The flooding closed many roads, and caused rivers to crest past their banks, though damage in the area was relatively minor.


At the time of this storm, I had lived in Coral Springs, Fl. I was only 12 years old at the time but I remember it like it was yesterday! The winds weren't all that strong, maybe gusts up to 50mph, but boy was the flooding horrendous.
Trami decoupled..


Quoting 1007. HimacaneBrees:


I'm not trying to correct anyone but I'm confused. I thought Dorian was a He. So shouldn't Erin be a She? I originally thought that Dorian was a she because I have a good friend and his wife's name is Dorian. Oh lord this is so bothersome lol.

You are correct Erin is a she. I realized it the moment I posted it & went back & fixed it.
Time to go gentle into the night - early work start tomorrow.

Please - all take care
late to the party, I know. Andrew for me. was a 6 year old kid, my family was living on Eglin AFB at the time. Seeing the pictures from Homestead, getting the very edge of the rainbands - knowing that monster was just south of us. my mother was a wreck for a couple of days, worried we would have to evac on short notice and with nowhere to go.

Quoting 969. slavicthunder:
Question for the blog community: which hurricane was the first hurricane to get you interested in tropical cyclones??

Mine is Hugo. Prior to the CNN era, Hugo seemed to still garner a lot of media coverage for the time. I was 14 years old. I wondered how those TV reporters could stand out there in that torrent.
1043. Dakster
Quoting 1040. Skyepony:
Trami decoupled..



You are correct Erin is a she. I realized it the moment I posted it & went back & fixed it.


FWIW, Erin is USUALLY how a girl spells that name and Aaron is USUALLY how a male spells the (almost) same sounding name. I have numerous Erin's and Aaron's in my family - and at least those are the way they spell their names.

Don't get me started on Shawn/Sean though...
The forecast calls for general strengthening up to 100 knots. My concern is this: The storm has been shrinking for several days now, and a couple of frames show that Pewa is struggling to maintain thunderstorms. Will the shear/dry air (I don't know which) eventually go away and allow Pewa to revive or will Pewa die an unexpected death?



Edit: Added another thought.
Quoting 987. txjac:
Totally off topic ...and I apologize in advance ,,,any good ideas with how to give your dog meds? Mine is so stubborn ...I put in back of thorat ...and Peanut will not swallow ...for like 20 minutes ..my poor baby was hit by a car while I was on vacation ...he just had surgery to put in two pins four days ago ...having difficulty with giving antibiotic and pain meds.

Feels pretty good in Houston ...humidity is lower than normal ... not so hot


Poor thing. Hope he gets better soon. We have to break the pills up in small pieces and jam them down my Bree's little throat. She will not take pills. Good Luck!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM MARING
11:00 AM PhST August 20 2013
============================

Tropical Storm "MARING" has maintained its strength as it moved northward

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Maring [TRAMI] (987 hPa) located at 21.6N 128.3E or 595 km east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gustiness up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-40 mm per hour (heavy to torrential) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

"MARING" " will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms over Luzon and western Visayas.

Fishermen specially those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon due to the possible big waves generated by the enhanced Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
You can tell it's downtime when we're talking about random hurricanes, lol.
1048. JLPR2
Quoting 1044. Astrometeor:
The forecast calls for general strengthening up to 100 knots. My concern is this: The storm has been shrinking for several days now, and a couple of frames show that Pewa is struggling to maintain thunderstorms. Will the shear/dry air (I don't know which) eventually go away and allow Pewa to revive or will Pewa die an unexpected death?



Edit: Added another thought.


Seems Pewa wants to join the ranks of Atlantic tropical systems falling apart. Not looking so hot.

invest 94E looking better!
Quoting 1046. HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM MARING
11:00 AM PhST August 20 2013
============================

Tropical Storm "MARING" has maintained its strength as it moved northward

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Maring [TRAMI] (987 hPa) located at 21.6N 128.3E or 595 km east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gustiness up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-40 mm per hour (heavy to torrential) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

"MARING" " will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms over Luzon and western Visayas.

Fishermen specially those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the seaboards of Luzon due to the possible big waves generated by the enhanced Southwest Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.



where is this storm at.




where is this storm at.


It's the same system as Trami using the Filipino name scheme.
Quoting 1033. matara28:
Bloggers still waits for the first hurricane in Atlantic. It will rather occur in Mediterranean sea than in Atlantic Ocean.


That would be cool beyond belief.

And yes, I know I'm responding to a troll. Sue me.
I would probably say I drew inspiration as kid from Isabel.

Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:


That would be cool beyond belief.

And yes, I know I'm responding to a troll. Sue me.


Your wish is my command. Now if only I had the money to perform a frivolous lawsuit.
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:


That would be cool beyond belief.

And yes, I know I'm responding to a troll. Sue me.

Alright, I sue for $20. ;)
Quoting 1034. jazzygal:


WOW, thanks Pat. I will tell her. She has Stage 4 and about a year left. Stomach and Lung Cancer. They are going to remove the tumor in her stomach. Relief for her so she can eat. I hope we are doing the right thing but she is a fighter and no one really can say how long a person has.


My grandfather was supposed to die a multitude of times; he finally did die four years ago, but it was well outside the estimated range given from the doctors, especially given his condition. Never underestimate the power of human will. Unless I'm taken out by a hurricane chase (:P), you darn well better believe I'll fight.

My cousin has also outlived the doctors' predictions many times.
Tropics are dead Lets talk football!!!!
1058. JLPR2
Interesting, rather large circulation around 11-12N,
30-32W.

Fresh OSCAT pass:


ASCAT pass:


Too broad to do much at the moment, but at least something remotely interesting in the ATL.
Quoting 1053. wxgeek723:
I would probably say I drew inspiration as kid from Isabel.


Me too!!!
Quoting 1058. JLPR2:
Interesting, rather large circulation around 11-12N,
30-32W.

Fresh OSCAT pass:


ASCAT pass:


Too broad to do much at the moment, but at least something remotely interesting in the ATL.


Pfft. No it's not. lol
Quoting 969. slavicthunder:
Question for the blog community: which hurricane was the first hurricane to get you interested in tropical cyclones??

Mine is Hugo. Prior to the CNN era, Hugo seemed to still garner a lot of media coverage for the time. I was 14 years old. I wondered how those TV reporters could stand out there in that torrent.


I grew up in earthquake country and remember watching Katrina coverage while holding my second baby--had only visited Nola once for a conference but my heart went out to those affected.

THEN, we moved to SE Texas and I experienced IKE while holding my third baby. Read some details on my blog...
1062. JLPR2
Quoting 1060. KoritheMan:


Pfft. No it's not. lol


LOL!

I guess its better than nothing, if the MJO does move towards our basin and this wave feels its effects we might get something out of it, but at the moment it's just a large swirl of clouds. :\
Quoting 1062. JLPR2:


LOL!

I guess its better than nothing, if the MJO does move towards our basin and this wave feels its effects we might get something out of it, but at the moment it's just a large swirl of clouds. :\


What? In the Pacific, like two weeks from now? :D
Maybe 2001 as an analog year for this hurricane season? That year was back-loaded with most of the notable activity from September onward. The first hurricane did not even develop until September 9.
More proof that it doesn't matter how active a season is because it only takes one.



The Tampa Bay hurricane of 1921 (also known as the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane) was the third hurricane, second major hurricane, and final storm of an inactive 1921 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm took a typical path for an October Atlantic hurricane, brushing past Cuba before hitting near Tampa, Florida, becoming the first major hurricane to hit the area since the hurricane of 1848. The hurricane was also the most destructive storm of the season, causing around $10 million (1921 USD, $92 million (2005 USD) in damage.
Quoting 1064. lobdelse81:
Maybe 2001 as an analog year for this hurricane season? That year was back-loaded with most of the notable activity from September onward. The first hurricane did not even develop until September 9.


I've been thinking that for awhile now, sans the slew of mid-latitude development that occurred in that year (Gabrielle, Humberto, Karen, Lorenzo, Noel, and Olga); I think this year will be a mostly tropical year.
1067. JLPR2
Quoting 1063. KoritheMan:


What? In the Pacific, like two weeks from now? :D


If the MJO forecast does come to pass then it would probably be around the Caribbean or close to it. Though if we go by older forecasts the MJO is supposed to be in the basin already, so yeah, I'm not betting on it.
Quoting 1056. KoritheMan:


My grandfather was supposed to die a multitude of times; he finally did die four years ago, but it was well outside the estimated range given from the doctors, especially given his condition. Never underestimate the power of human will. Unless I'm taken out by a hurricane chase (:P), you darn well better believe I'll fight.

My cousin has also outlived the doctors' predictions many times.


Thank Kori. I truly believe when it is your time to go, it's your time. Not when someone says you have a year left but she is 79 and has had a wonderful life. She tells everyone she is going so she can dance with my dad again.
Quoting 1067. JLPR2:


If the MJO forecast does come to pass then it would probably be around the Caribbean or close to it. Though if we go by older forecasts the MJO is supposed to be in the basin already, so yeah, I'm not betting on it.


tl;dr: sleepy time.
Quoting 1068. jazzygal:


Thank Kori. I truly believe when it is your time to go, it's your time. Not when someone says you have a year left but she is 79 and has had a wonderful life. She tells everyone she is going so she can dance with my dad again.


I wish you and your family only the best during this time of peril.
Good Night all and thanks again everyone. It has been really nice on this blog tonight.
Quoting 969. slavicthunder:
Question for the blog community: which hurricane was the first hurricane to get you interested in tropical cyclones??

Mine is Hugo. Prior to the CNN era, Hugo seemed to still garner a lot of media coverage for the time. I was 14 years old. I wondered how those TV reporters could stand out there in that torrent.
Hugo for me as well even though I wasn't alive. My mom's stories got me interested.
Quoting 1039. yankees440:


At the time of this storm, I had lived in Coral Springs, Fl. I was only 12 years old at the time but I remember it like it was yesterday! The winds weren't all that strong, maybe gusts up to 50mph, but boy was the flooding horrendous.
I remember we boarded up for this one... We'd just gone through Floyd, and weren't taking any chances...
Quoting 1053. wxgeek723:
I would probably say I drew inspiration as kid from Isabel.



Maybe because the weather channel was actually "the weather" back then? lol
What is the average time that it takes for a CV storm to reach the SE US coast?? thanks in advance
1077. Levi32
Hurricane Isabel had the most perfect upper-level outflow fan in one quadrant that I've ever seen. Notice how abruptly it cuts off in the NW quad.

Quoting 1065. GTstormChaserCaleb:
More proof that it doesn't matter how active a season is because it only takes one.



The Tampa Bay hurricane of 1921 (also known as the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane) was the third hurricane, second major hurricane, and final storm of an inactive 1921 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm took a typical path for an October Atlantic hurricane, brushing past Cuba before hitting near Tampa, Florida, becoming the first major hurricane to hit the area since the hurricane of 1848. The hurricane was also the most destructive storm of the season, causing around $10 million (1921 USD, $92 million (2005 USD) in damage.


The spin above the Yucatan is now round. And it's probably clocking 20mph.
On the first storm of interest, I prolly have mentioned that David was the 1st storm I experienced [well that I remember, anyway]. My mom flew out on the last commercial flight out of Nassau Airport that afternoon, so it was just my dad and us kids. I got interested in storm tracking then, and when Andrew came through the Bahamas in 1992 my interest was revived.

Quoting 1057. RufusBaker:
Tropics are dead Lets talk football!!!!
Are you going to replace your avatar, Rufus?

Quoting 1076. waveRoller:
What is the average time that it takes for a CV storm to reach the SE US coast?? thanks in advance


Normally 10 or so days...
Quoting 1076. waveRoller:
What is the average time that it takes for a CV storm to reach the SE US coast?? thanks in advance
About 10 - 15 days if IIRC... depends on forward speed and which part of the coast you r thinking about...
1082. geepy86
Yep David for me too. Only be in Fl for four years.
Quoting 1067. JLPR2:


If the MJO forecast does come to pass then it would probably be around the Caribbean or close to it. Though if we go by older forecasts the MJO is supposed to be in the basin already, so yeah, I'm not betting on it.


Do you have a favorite sfc map for the GOM and CARIB? I'm rebuilding bookmarks since resurrecting Chrome, and that's the one I'm missing.
1084. vis0
image host

Free Image Hosting by imgbox.com
i know it'll be removed (hope my ban isn't too long)

But!!!
Its weather related
Has a Wxquiz on it. (for real WxFans 2 mistakes)
And includes the latest WxU tropical winter wear, Wxu sweater/hat for when hurricanes (xtraTropical) bust out in cooler temps.,
due to a delay explained ~2 wks ago.
also there is a lull in the Atlantic areas.
Artistic License might have merit, he/she drew it.

Free Image Hosting by imgbox.com




It's weird the things you remember about hurricanes... we really lucked out here because David the destructive killer 'cane in the Antilles was a mild-mannered minimal cat 1 when it passed west of New Providence. Nevertheless, all our pear and mango trees suffered extensive damage, and most toppled over. However, what I remember most clearly was peering under the edge of the plywood my dad had nailed over the windows and watching my mother's onions drown in the nearly 1 foot of rain that settled in our back yard.
What an impressive storm Donna must have been.

Donna holds the record for retaining "major hurricane" status (category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) in the Atlantic Basin for the longest period of time on record. For nine days, September 2 to September 11, Donna consistently had sustained winds of at least 115 mph. From the moment it became a tropical depression to when it dissipated after becoming an extratropical storm, Donna roamed the Atlantic from August 29 to September 14, a total of 17 days. While crossing the Atlantic Donna briefly achieved Category 5 strength.

Formed August 29, 1960
Dissipated September 14, 1960
Highest winds 160 mph (260 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 930 mbar (hPa; 27.47 inHg)
Fatalities 364 direct
Damage $3.3 billion (1960 USD)
$22.48 billion (2006 USD)
Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Bahamas, every state on the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine, Atlantic Canada (Most land areas ever affected by an Atlantic hurricane)



















Link
FISH STORMS on the GFS great!
Quoting 1077. Levi32:
Hurricane Isabel had the most perfect upper-level outflow fan in one quadrant that I've ever seen. Notice how abruptly it cuts off in the NW quad.



I feel like its almost all the way around here, just missing on the eastern side.

1089. geepy86
Yeah David went up the east coast and we had an instant diving board for the pool when a palm fell a crossed it, I'll always remember all the bugs (mostly roaches) that came out of the top of it.
1090. JLPR2
Quoting 1083. redwagon:


Do you have a favorite sfc map for the GOM and CARIB? I'm rebuilding bookmarks since resurrecting Chrome, and that's the one I'm missing.




I would call this one my favorite since you can select the area you want to get a closer look.
Quoting 1045. jazzygal:


Poor thing. Hope he gets better soon. We have to break the pills up in small pieces and jam them down my Bree's little throat. She will not take pills. Good Luck!


What I've found that works is to put the pill into a little ball of canned dog food; my guys eat them right up with no problem. Good luck!

This run seems unrealistic, you rarely see 2 systems that close to each other moving in the same direction the one above the 995 mb. storm, could be one of the GFS's convective feedback run.

Quoting 1085. BahaHurican:
It's weird the things you remember about hurricanes... we really lucked out here because David the destructive killer 'cane in the Antilles was a mild-mannered minimal cat 1 when it passed west of New Providence. Nevertheless, all our pear and mango trees suffered extensive damage, and most toppled over. However, what I remember most clearly was peering under the edge of the plywood my dad had nailed over the windows and watching my mother's onions drown in the nearly 1 foot of rain that settled in our back yard.


Don't cry over onions Baha.
Quoting 1084. vis0:
image host

Free Image Hosting by imgbox.com
i know it'll be removed (hope my ban isn't too long)

But!!!
Its weather related
Has a Wxquiz on it. (for real WxFans 2 mistakes)
And includes the latest WxU tropical winter wear, Wxu sweater/hat for when hurricanes (xtraTropical) bust out in cooler temps.,
due to a delay explained ~2 wks ago.
also there is a lull in the Atlantic areas.
Artistic License might have merit, he/she drew it.

Free Image Hosting by imgbox.com
LOL where's Waldo, I still have that book, classic! :D
Quoting 1065. GTstormChaserCaleb:
More proof that it doesn't matter how active a season is because it only takes one. Betsy '65 New Orleans...September 9th
Tropical Atlantic

East Coast

Caribbean

Gulf
Thanks. My bad!
Quoting JLPR2:




I would call this one my favorite since you can select the area you want to get a closer look.
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:


That would be cool beyond belief.

And yes, I know I'm responding to a troll. Sue me.

U are answering to a user of this blog not to a troll. I am realistic.
1086. GTstormChaserCaleb 12:38 AM EDT on August 20, 2013

Wow, Caleb! 1000 pluses for this post, man... the pic of Abraham's Bay is priceless... my dad was still living in Mayaguana when this storm hit, IIRC... but I don't know if he ever saw that picture....

Thanks, lots!
Quoting 1090. JLPR2:




I would call this one my favorite since you can select the area you want to get a closer look.


Thank you, Sir, I like how it breaks up split TWaves.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCED A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN
CFS 9/7/13: Yeah I know this is really long range and I will probably take heat for it, so take it for what it is worth not much, just a scenario.

Quoting 969. slavicthunder:
Question for the blog community: which hurricane was the first hurricane to get you interested in tropical cyclones??

I post very little, but read all the time, having family in Tampa and the Caymans.

My first living memory was at a year old, standing in my crib, looking out the window at rushing flood waters in Upper Darby, just outside Philly, during Diane. It was years before my next memory.
The lack of instability in the Tropical Atlantic is significant.
Quoting 1093. Astrometeor:


Don't cry over onions Baha.
LOL... hey, I was too young to know I was supposed to cry about / over the onions... I was just fascinated... lol
Quoting 1099. BahaHurican:
1086. GTstormChaserCaleb 12:38 AM EDT on August 20, 2013

Wow, Caleb! 1000 pluses for this post, man... the pic of Abraham's Bay is priceless... my dad was still living in Mayaguana when this storm hit, IIRC... but I don't know if he ever saw that picture....

Thanks, lots!
You're welcome lots Baha! Is your dad still alive? You should show him that pic. and I tried to cover as much areas as affected in that post, so sorry if I missed your area just click on the link. I feel like studying these past storms will make you understand and appreciate the sheer force these storms bring with them and help me learn about the future ones more and why they choose to take certain paths. If you noticed each and every storm takes a unique path and although there may be some similarities no 2 tracks are alike.
Quoting 1098. matara28:

U are answering to a user of this blog not to a troll. I am realistic.


M ostly
A
T roll
A nd
R eally
A nnoying

Lot of great support today for multiple members who are suffering. You guys and gals rock.

Quoting 1103. cloudymix:
Quoting 969. slavicthunder:
Question for the blog community: which hurricane was the first hurricane to get you interested in tropical cyclones??

I post very little, but read all the time, having family in Tampa and the Caymans.

My first living memory was at a year old, standing in my crib, looking out the window at rushing flood waters in Upper Darby, just outside Philly, during Diane. It was years before my next memory.

Hmm where in cayman
Quoting 1105. BahaHurican:
LOL... hey, I was too young to know I was supposed to cry about / over the onions... I was just fascinated... lol


Glad you liked it. I feel like Gro's humor is taking a toll on me, I'm cracking more jokes than ever.

Good night blog.
Quoting 1106. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're welcome lots Baha! Is your dad still alive? You should show him that pic. and I tried to cover as much areas as affected in that post, so sorry if I missed your area just click on the link. I feel like studying these past storms will make you understand and appreciate the sheer force these storms bring with them and help me learn about the future ones more and why they choose to take certain paths. If you noticed each and every storm takes a unique path and although there may be some similarities no 2 tracks are alike.
I will definitely be showing him that in the morning... I'm sure he will have some stories to tell. This was the second bad storm they had there, because Betsy came close enough in 65 to do extensive damage to the north coast of the island. But Donna went right over Mayaguana. I will definitely look at the link, too.
Quoting 1104. ProgressivePulse:
The lack of instability in the Tropical Atlantic is significant.
That may be the biggest contributor as to why we are not seeing any activity. More than wind shear and SAL. So this begs the question what causes instability? Clashes between 2 different air masses or something else?

Quoting 1111. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That may be the biggest contributor as to why we are not seeing any activity. More than wind shear and SAL. So this begs the question what causes instability? Clashes between 2 different air masses or something else?



Instability is rising air. The T-ATL has been dominated by high pressure, SAL etc.. which all contribute to feed the high pressure, remember Texas last year? The TS that disappeared on contact? It's significant and looks to be heading further downward on the chart.
1113. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
CFS 9/7/13: Yeah I know this is really long range and I will probably take heat for it, so take it for what it is worth not much, just a scenario.


As you say, it's a bit far out, but that's a heck of a set of lows. The most concerning thing is the 1016 mb isobar. That's potentially more trouble than any specific low, since what does develop has a much better chance of landfall from the Gulf all the way up the East Coast.
Well this is what I found from wiki...

"In meteorology, convective instability or stability of an air mass refers to its ability to resist vertical motion. A stable atmosphere makes vertical movement difficult, and small vertical disturbances dampen out and disappear. In an unstable atmosphere, vertical air movements (such as in orographic lifting, where an air mass is displaced upwards as it is blown by wind up the rising slope of a mountain range) tend to become larger, resulting in turbulent airflow and convective activity. Instability can lead to significant turbulence, extensive vertical clouds, and severe weather such as thunderstorms.[1]

Adiabatic cooling and heating are phenomena of rising or descending air. Rising air expands and cools due to the decrease in air pressure as altitude increases. The opposite is true of descending air; as atmospheric pressure increases, the temperature of descending air increases as it is compressed. Adiabatic heating and adiabatic cooling are terms used to describe this temperature change.

The adiabatic lapse rate is the rate at which a rising or falling air mass lowers or increases per distance of vertical displacement. The ambient lapse rate is the temperature change in the (non-displaced) air per vertical distance. Instability results from difference between the adiabatic lapse rate of an air mass and the ambient lapse rate in the atmosphere.

If the adiabatic lapse rate is lower than the ambient lapse rate, an air mass displaced upward cools less rapidly than the air in which it is moving. Hence, such an air mass becomes warmer relative to the atmosphere. As warmer air is less dense, such an air mass would tend to continue to rise.

Conversely, if the adiabatic lapse rate is higher than the ambient lapse rate, an air mass displaced upward cools more rapidly than the air in which it is moving. Hence, such an airmass becomes cooler relative to the atmosphere. As cooler air is more dense, the rise of such an airmass would tend to be resisted.

When air rises, moist air cools at a lower rate than dry air. That is, for the same vertical movement, a parcel of moist air will be warmer than a parcel of dry air. This is because of the condensation of water vapor in the air parcel due to expansion cooling. As water vapor condenses, latent heat is released into the air parcel. Moist air has more water vapor than dry air, so more latent heat is released into the parcel of moist air as it rises. Dry air does not have as much water vapor, therefore dry air cools at a higher rate with vertical movement than moist air. As a result of the latent heat that is released during water vapor condensation, moist air has a relatively lower adiabatic lapse rate than dry air. This makes moist air generally less stable than dry air (see convective available potential energy). The dry adiabatic lapse rate (for unsaturated air) is 3 °C (5.4 °F) per 1,000 vertical feet. The moist adiabatic lapse rate varies from 1.1 °C to 2.8 °C (2 °F to 5 °F) per 1,000 vertical feet.

The combination of moisture and temperature determine the stability of the air and the resulting weather. Cool, dry air is very stable and resists vertical movement, which leads to good and generally clear weather. The greatest instability occurs when the air is moist and warm, as it is in the tropical regions in the summer. Typically, thunderstorms appear on a daily basis in these regions due to the instability of the surrounding air.

The ambient lapse rate differs in different meteorological conditions, but, on average, is 2 °C (3.5 °F) per 1,000 vertical feet.

Colorado State University version of convective instabilty
Quoting 1111. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That may be the biggest contributor as to why we are not seeing any activity. More than wind shear and SAL. So this begs the question what causes instability? Clashes between 2 different air masses or something else?



The GOM and CARIB atmos has become remarkably unstable in just the last 24 hours. I though 92L had released all the precipitable but not so. And it's all moving Wward.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB04-2013
5:30 AM IST August 20 2013
==================================

at 0:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over Gangetic West Bengal, adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, north Orissa and Jharkhand near 22.0N 87.0E, about 100 km southeast of Jamshedpur and 100 km south of Bankura..

The system is likely to move west northwestwards and weaken gradually.
Quoting 1111. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That may be the biggest contributor as to why we are not seeing any activity. More than wind shear and SAL. So this begs the question what causes instability? Clashes between 2 different air masses or something else?



Drought in Africa and A/B High are two of the big reasons stability has been what it's been. Areas of warm and cold areas in the Atlantic colliding and sending out instability waves is one way instability rises. Have had three or four great looking waves plop off of Africa and its been pretty amazing how they've just fizzled. Outside of MJO moving into the basin, I'm not sure how else instability would get going. Good question GT.
Quoting 1107. Tribucanes:


M ostly
A
T roll
A nd
R eally
A nnoying

Lot of great support today for multiple members who are suffering. You guys and gals rock.



Thank you. So, if i say that there will be no hurricanes this year, i am a troll? You poor little things :|


At some point, the heat from the equatorial areas still needs to be transported northward. Unless we are in a new phase of climatic change! No responses from the GW crowd. Please!
Quoting 1113. sar2401:

As you say, it's a bit far out, but that's a heck of a set of lows. The most concerning thing is the 1016 mb isobar. That's potentially more trouble than any specific low, since what does develop has a much better chance of landfall from the Gulf all the way up the East Coast.
It is a different pressure pattern than what the GFS is showing, which has the high displaced more towards the Azores and troughing along the East Coast, as opposed to the high closer to the East Coast. That track resembles Irene and 1938 New England Hurricane.
With this concept of instability in mind, I can see why some climatologists were expecting increased TC activity due to GW.... They weren't thinking about localized effects like semi-permanent highs creating extra-stable microclimates say, over TX, or contributing to SAL in the ATL...

Geez... I keep forgetting I have to be up at the crack of dawn... I better try to get a few hours of shuteye...

Thanks for the pics and the interesting discussion, guys.

I'm out [like a light]... lol

Quoting 1119. swflurker:
At some point, the heat from the equatorial areas still needs to be transported northward. Unless we are in a new phase of climatic change! No responses from the GW crowd. Please!


I'm an AGW proponent, but I can't just not respond. Sorry.

While not academically accepted, and merely a concept at this point, my personal hypothesis is that global warming is causing, and is going to continue to cause, recurvature of most Atlantic hurricanes. If you look, ever since 2009, nothing has been able to make landfall in the United States outside of either the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, where it's virtually impossible for a quick escape. Even then, a lot of the Caribbean storms still like to turn northward under the influence of a deep trough (Nicole 2010, Emily 2011, Rafael 2012, and now Chantal in 2013) during July, August, and September, which is far from normal.

Four years is still too short a period to determine anything other than chance, but it's not a coincidence that when Arctic blocking develops, troughing develops farther south, along the United States east coast; this is just basic teleconnection prattle. Whether or not this pattern will continue remains to be seen, but it's trying to return again this year after no signs of doing so earlier in the year. Like I said, it's fairly unsupported right now, but I strongly believe other people will latch onto my idea eventually, and it will become popular in a decade or two.

We've long said that global warming will inevitably cause the planetary circulation patterns to change -- and with them, the Earth's weather. We've also said, however, that we don't know what or where those changes will be. Me personally, I believe that we're already seeing a substantial change in the behavior of Atlantic storm tracks, in the form of massive recurvature.

It would be one thing to have a lot of recurvatures if we only had, say, 7 to 12 storms, but when we've had 19 the last three seasons, and barely any of them can make it past 70W, much less all the way to the US coastline, something is wrong. It could be natural variability, but I'm more inclined to follow the global warming spectrum. After all, if the poles heat up the fastest (which they will) in a warming world, then consequent Arctic blocking will tend to develop there during the summer melt season, much like we've seen the last four seasons, and appear to be seeing again this year.

I've also heard it said that the troughing we're seeing is reminiscent of the 1950s and 1960s, where the east coast took the majority of tropical cyclone hits. Not true. The pattern back then was obviously much different than the one we have now, because again, they could still make landfall. Something truly unprecedented is going on, and sooner or later people are going to realize that.

People keep looking for tracks like those found in years past, but I'm beginning to have serious doubts that they'll ever return again.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C...LOCATED NEARLY 1150 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE KAUAI. PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER TCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO...WITH FORECAST
ADVISORIES FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA21
PHFO.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ABOUT 700
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII ARE SHOWING LIMITED SIGNS OF
INCREASED ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT MAY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL
That's pretty sound reasoning Kori, only time will tell if that synopsis is accurate or not. Earlier in the season, you were saying pattern was setting up for potential danger for the continental. So, safe to say your thinking has changed quite a bit? Will GW, and it's effects on the Atlantic that you mentioned possibly lead to a far more stable Atlantic too in your opinion?
STJ seems low and really strong for this time of year.


1907 and 1914 were the only two recorded seasons without hurricanes, so it's not out of the question. Seasons with only three to five are much more common. It's been 99 years, but who knows. NHC late last week were still calling for an above average season. Anything less than 12-3-1 would be pretty hard to believe based on the very active pattern we've been in.
Pressure pattern at 240 hrs. I think anyway you slice it the ridge is going to act to suppress activity by inducing a dry stable air mass with lack of vertical instability to promote thunderstorm growth. Things are going to have to change quickly as we are getting closer to September and the models are being very skimpish on development until the long range, we are going to need an MJO pulse like what is going on in the whole of the Pacific Basin in the Atlantic to see a classic wave train or as wiki likes to put it "parade of storms."

GFS:



GEM:



To KM, I respect your response and agree. My second sentence was about climate change. AGW should be changed to GCC (global climate change),
which I believe in 100%. I have lived in south FL for 25 years and it is very pronounced. Things are not the same. I could go on and on, you know what I'm talking about.
Quoting 1125. Tribucanes:
That's pretty sound reasoning Kori, only time will tell if that synopsis is accurate or not. Earlier in the season, you were saying pattern was setting up for potential danger for the continental. So, safe to say your thinking has changed quite a bit? Will GW, and it's effects on the Atlantic that you mentioned possibly lead to a far more stable Atlantic too in your opinion?


The 500 mb pattern has made an enormous shift from what I said back then. For comparison, here are the 500 mb height anomalies for July and August, with July being the top image, and August being the bottom image:





Like Levi pointed out the other day, 1999 and 2004, both of which he considers decent analogs for this year, featured anomalous ridging over the eastern United States during July, but then flipped to troughing in that same location during the first two weeks of August, only to have the ridging reappear during peak season. That shows no signs of happening right now though, and I'm highly skeptical that it will. I've just seen it too much. "The pattern's going to change, just wait and see", "The United States is in for it this year [insert random analogs here]", "That was just one recurve; this next wave is a lot farther south", etc. Every year. And what happens? The trough sticks around. Why should 2013 be any different?

Although this time, I wasn't caught completely off guard; for all the times I said that the pattern looked dangerous, every single time I said it, I made sure to add the disclaimer stating the fragility of the synoptic pattern in any given year, and to possibly expect a resurgence of the trough again.

It's killing me though, lol. I miss the days of tracking landbound hurricanes. I don't want the loss of life, but I do miss the adrenaline rush of forecasting storms that are significantly threatening land. We never see that nowadays. It just doesn't happen.

As for the stable air, in theory, yes. If the east coast trough is indeed being caused (or at least enhanced) by Arctic blocking during the summer, heights are naturally going to rise in the vicinity of the Azores and the Canary Islands, which will consequently blow more dust into the Atlantic and decrease vertical instability.
Quoting 1121. BahaHurican:
With this concept of instability in mind, I can see why some climatologists were expecting increased TC activity due to GW.... They weren't thinking about localized effects like semi-permanent highs creating extra-stable microclimates say, over TX, or contributing to SAL in the ATL...



Actually, the current thinking is that there will be less overall tropical activity, mainly as a result of more erratic patterns and increased shear. Storms will have a harder time forming, but when they do form they would have a lot of extra energy to tap into.
Kori that is a magnificent hypothesis to the connection of Arctic ice melt and recurvatures. I would have to agree, but there still will be years in between where the ice will recover and the blocking will be replaced by troughing over the Arctic. I have my doubts that this type of pattern would stay constant without a high impact year in between to the CONUS, Caribbean, and Central America. Climate is a changing thing and the human influence while having a negative effect by adding more to the release of excessive amount of CO2 into the atmosphere we will actually start to be less reliant on that as countries start to adapt to much more cleaner energy. Or do you think the damage is done already?
Quoting 1132. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Kori that is a magnificent hypothesis to the connection of Arctic ice melt and recurvatures. I would have to agree, but there still will be years in between where the ice will recover and the blocking will be replaced by troughing over the Arctic. I have my doubts that this type of pattern would stay constant without a high impact year in between to the CONUS, Caribbean, and Central America. Climate is a changing thing and the human influence while having a negative effect by adding more to the release of excessive amount of CO2 into the atmosphere we will actually start to be less reliant on that as countries start to adapt to much more cleaner energy. Or do you think the damage is done already?


The damage is already done, but we can still prevent the worst case scenario if we start changing things.

Good luck on getting that to happen, though. If we do, it'll be a very gradual process.
I know someone who knows National Hurricane Center forecaster James Franklin in person. I've relayed questions to Mr. Franklin through this person before, with remarkable success each time. I just posed a question to him about my hypothesis, and what he thinks the cause is.

His response will be very interesting. James doesn't mind, so I'll share his response with you all here.
Quoting 1112. ProgressivePulse:


Instability is rising air. The T-ATL has been dominated by high pressure, SAL etc.. which all contribute to feed the high pressure, remember Texas last year? The TS that disappeared on contact? It's significant and looks to be heading further downward on the chart.

That was 2 years ago, Tropical Storm Don, FWIW.
Also, I think that's largely the reason CSU's landfall probabilities have been so heinously wrong over the last four years. It's not really their fault, but their forecast methodology relies heavily upon the climatic pattern we experienced in the past, which obviously is very different now.

Until we actually figure out what that is, and they change that, I would expect more misleading forecasts.
Quoting 1137. KoritheMan:
Also, I think that's largely the reason CSU's landfall probabilities have been so heinously wrong over the last four years. It's not really their fault, but their forecast methodology relies heavily upon the climatic pattern we experienced in the past, which obviously is very different now.

Until they change that, I would expect more misleading forecasts.
What are you numbers for this season?
the 06 "Lady" hasn't tuned up yet...
Quoting 1138. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What are you numbers for this season?


Still 17/9/4.

I'm convinced that 85% of them will be seaward hurricanes though, lol.
BTW, Erin remnants headed our way.

Could this have something to do with it, a couple of the bloggers I think it was TampaSpin said so long as the EPAC remains active the Atlantic remains quiet. Anyways I'm still predicting an active peak, and an active September and October overall, as we have seen in the past seasons can have a whole month lull and really pick up in activity the next month.

Quoting 1140. KoritheMan:


Still 17/9/4.

I'm convinced that 85% of them will be seaward hurricanes though, lol.
Ok lol I have 15/8/5. I agree with the mostly OTS storms, but I have this feeling 1, maybe 2 will sneak by and make the long trek and 1 of them will be a strengthening major hurricane headed for the East Coast it would remain to be seen if a storm would be able to maintain that strength. I actually think the Caribbean will be devoid of activity until we get after the peak due to the persistent TUTT. And we may not get a true Cape-Verde Caribbean cruiser this year as there seems to be a weakness their. I like the GOM and Western Caribbean for quick spin ups towards the end of next month and October.
Quoting 1143. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok lol I have 15/8/5. I agree with the mostly OTS storms, but I have this feeling 1, maybe 2 will sneak by and make the long trek and 1 of them will be a strengthening major hurricane headed for the East Coast it would remain to be seen if a storm would be able to maintain that strength. I actually think the Caribbean will be devoid of activity until we get after the peak due to the persistent TUTT. And we may not get a true Cape-Verde Caribbean cruiser this year as there seems to be a weakness their. I like the GOM and Western Caribbean for quick spin ups towards the end of next month and October.


I have a feeling we'll get one more tropical storm into the US, with the rest of the storms either going out to sea or burying themselves in Central America (not to downplay the significance of that for those countries). I know that's unscientific, and it's pretty much intended to be. But after the last few years, I am pretty confident it will be on the money, lol.
Now people are agreeing with me, I told you for a good time conditions wouldn't be so quick to change.
Quoting 1142. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Could this have something to do with it, a couple of the bloggers I think it was TampaSpin said so long as the EPAC remains active the Atlantic remains quiet. Anyways I'm still predicting an active peak, and an active September and October overall, as we have seen in the past seasons can have a whole month lull and really pick up in activity the next month.

I've noticed that in past years. Busy EPAC usually means a slow ATL.
Quoting 1117. Tribucanes:


Drought in Africa and A/B High are two of the big reasons stability has been what it's been. Areas of warm and cold areas in the Atlantic colliding and sending out instability waves is one way instability rises. Have had three or four great looking waves plop off of Africa and its been pretty amazing how they've just fizzled. Outside of MJO moving into the basin, I'm not sure how else instability would get going. Good question GT.
A good cool front that makes it farther south will add instability. Of course that will increase the chance of OTS storms.The MJO is supposed to really kick in at month's end also.
CP, 03, 2013082006, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1773W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M,
This seems unrealistic too.


LinkHey guys look what I found

Quoting 1144. KoritheMan:


I have a feeling we'll get one more tropical storm into the US, with the rest of the storms either going out to sea or burying themselves in Central America (not to downplay the significance of that for those countries). I know that's unscientific, and it's pretty much intended to be. But after the last few years, I am pretty confident it will be on the money, lol.
i have 16/10/4! and yes i just got off! good morning bloggers
Wesley, I take it you're not going to New Orleans this weekend? lol
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB04-2013
8:30 AM IST August 20 2013
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining areas of northwest Bay of Bengal, north Orissa and Jharkhand remained practically stationary and lay centered near 22.0N 87.0E, about 150 km southeast of Jamshedpur and 150 km south southeast of Bankura.

The system would move west northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well-marked low pressure area during next 48 hours
Quoting 1152. KoritheMan:
Wesley, I take it you're not going to New Orleans this weekend? lol
im trying get it off but this dude wont swap with me but he say he mite let me know by wednesday or thursday im trying though trust me!
I have looked at the tracks of quite a few storms just randomly in the years since 1971. Call me an idiot, but wouldn't the odds be more favorable for a storm that starts, say in the Carribbean or the GOM, regardless of where, or in the Atlantic right around the Bahamas or just east thereof to strike the U.S.? There may be no other reason other than it is closer to land.

A CV storm has to trek over a lot of water for days and days before getting to land, allowing a lot more time for weather patterns to change and affect the storm. Carribbean storms do not have that working against them so much, especially early in the season, and the waters are also more shallow, allowing SST's to get much higher. It's even more so in the GOM. Once it gets late in the season, more cold fronts move farther and farther out into the Gulf, reducing the chance of formation because the waters get cooler.

I really can't see that any more Cape Verde storms are behaving any differently than in years past as far as track. What I do see this year is that they cannot even get cranked up at all, barely past depression status. I find that more curious than the tracks. That is supposed to change come September, according to many on this blog. If it doesn't, only then will I think we have something to talk about.
Quoting 1154. bigwes6844:
im trying get it off but this dude wont swap with me but he say he mite let me know by wednesday or thursday im trying though trust me!


Alright, well I'll text you over the next couple of days after he's had some more time to decide.

Hope to see you there!
Quoting 1155. LAsurvivor:
I have looked at the tracks of quite a few storms just randomly in the years since 1971. Call me an idiot, but wouldn't the odds be more favorable for a storm that starts, say in the Carribbean or the GOM, regardless of where, or in the Atlantic right around the Bahamas or just east thereof to strike the U.S.? There may be no other reason other than it is closer to land.

A CV storm has to trek over a lot of water for days and days before getting to land, allowing a lot more time for weather patterns to change and affect the storm. Carribbean storms do not have that working against them so much, especially early in the season, and the waters are also more shallow, allowing SST's to get much higher. It's even more so in the GOM. Once it gets late in the season, more cold fronts move farther and farther out into the Gulf, reducing the chance of formation because the waters get cooler.

I really can't see that any more Cape Verde storms are behaving any differently than in years past as far as track. What I do see this year is that they cannot even get cranked up at all, barely past depression status. I find that more curious than the tracks. That is supposed to change come September, according to many on this blog. If it doesn't, only then will I think we have something to talk about.
It's not really the recurvature itself that's odd; it's the fact that the last three seasons have had 19 storms each, and only 7 of those made US landfall, and only two hurricanes, each of which were barely at that intensity.

Like I said earlier, it's rather understandable to see a slew of recurves during a year with comparatively little activity; for example, 1983 (4), 1992 (7), 1994 (7), or 1999 (12). But when we're seeing such a large number of recurvatures during years with exceptionally high activity, there's something a little off.
Quoting 1088. VAbeachhurricanes:


I feel like its almost all the way around here, just missing on the eastern side.



Wasn't Isabel an annular hurricane?
Quoting 1158. AZweather13:


Wasn't Isabel an annular hurricane?


Yes.
Quoting 1157. KoritheMan:
It's not really the recurvature itself that's odd; it's the fact that the last three seasons have had 19 storms each, and only 7 of those made US landfall, and only two hurricanes, each of which were barely at that intensity.

Like I said earlier, it's rather understandable to see a slew of recurves during a year with comparatively little activity; for example, 1983 (4), 1992 (7), 1994 (7), or 1999 (12). But when we're seeing such a large number of recurvatures during years with exceptionally high activity, there's something a little off.
While you say 7 US landfalls there was also Central America and Yucatan landfalls during that time, Ernesto and Helene last year and Alex and Earl in 2010. Point I'm trying to make is the storms that remained weak or just as tropical wave had a better chance of developing once they reached closer to the islands or after it putting land areas at risk and leading me to the concept of a pattern within a pattern. Basically you have the overall steering pattern that becomes established by the peak of the hurricane season and then you have a brief change in that pattern that last for about a week in that time their is a window for storms to ride the high all the way to the coast because either the trough that had been persistent on timing was too slow to occur thus by time a storm got to the coast in the case of Irene it was too late and remember Irene was a major hurricane in the Bahamas. I know this may sound like nit-picking, but it does always seem to come down to timing and strength of the trough and storm. I hope you understand where I am getting at. :)

Quoting 1160. GTstormChaserCaleb:
While you say 7 US landfalls there was also Central America and Yucatan landfalls during that time, Ernesto and Helene last year and Alex and Earl in 2010. Point I'm trying to make is the storms that remained weak or just as tropical wave had a better chance of developing once they reached closer to the islands or after it putting land areas at risk and leading me to the concept of a pattern within a pattern. Basically you have the overall steering pattern that becomes established by the peak of the hurricane season and then you have a brief change in that pattern that last for about a week in that time their is a window for storms to ride the high all the way to the coast because either the trough that had been persistent on timing was too slow to occur thus by time a storm got to the coast in the case of Irene it was too late and remember Irene was a major hurricane in the Bahamas. I know this may sound like nit-picking, but it does always seem to come down to timing and strength of the trough and storm. I hope you understand where I am getting at. :)
Yeah I do, but lately it's seemed almost a little too convenient, lol.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032013
1100 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013

...THREE-C MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 177.9W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WNW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032013
1100 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013

A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...EMERGED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 0500 UTC...LIKELY INCREASING FIX POSITION
CONFIDENCE FOR THREE-C VERSUS EARLIER TODAY. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO SPUTTER 45 TO 90 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC...KEEPING
DVORAK INTENSITIES FROM THE THREE CONTRIBUTING AGENCIES IN THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE. NO RECENT ASCAT OR OSCAT PASSES ARE AVAILABLE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS RATHER SMALL
SYSTEM AT 30 KT.

DEPRESSION THREE-C IS MOVING TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT...THE SAME
SPEED AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THREE-C IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PUTS IT WITHIN HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE 0600 UTC...8 PM HST...CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWED ONLY 16 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST...LESS THAN THE 20
TO 30 KT OF SHEAR NOTED EARLIER. SHIPS DIFFERS A BIT AND INITIALIZES
23 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THREE-C. EITHER WAY...A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT NEEDED FOR LONG-TERM SYSTEM SURVIVAL IS NOT PRESENT AND
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM PEWA...WEST OF THE DATE LINE...MAY ALSO
TAKE A TOLL ON DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN NO DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THREE-C DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND PROJECTS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT AROUND 36 HOURS
AND THEN DISSIPATION. THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE 0000 UTC. HOWEVER...THIS TRACK REMAINS
WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.0N 177.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.3N 179.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.9N 177.4E 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 20.7N 174.7E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER POWELL
1165. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks,Blogs coffee is perked and OMG what a storm we had last night here,continous heavy Booming and Lightning and very heavy rain for Hours and hours..like a war zone it was right over my house wow...
1166. LargoFl
1167. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-201600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
503 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY
ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

Quoting 1156. KoritheMan:


Alright, well I'll text you over the next couple of days after he's had some more time to decide.

Hope to see you there!
I hope so too my man sorry bout these crazy schedules.
Quoting 1164. Civicane49:

Poor 3C, no name for it :(
Quoting 1104. ProgressivePulse:
The lack of instability in the Tropical Atlantic is significant.


No lack of instability on this blog tho!
a weak system in the eastern carib and the leftovers of erin really nothing i can hang on hat on. aug 20th and counting
06z GFS at 120 hours:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A very pleasant 69 degrees here this morning and the possibility of rain for Thursday, Friday and Saturday is back. Fingers are crossed.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, Scrambled Egg Pockets, cranberry coffee cake, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 1172. Civicane49:
06z GFS at 120 hours:

None of the models have been able to factor in the dry air. They all depict a 1002 in the central atlantic 5-10 days out, every day. It never materializes.

NHC needs to furlough everyone except Stewart and Avila. Thats more manpower than needed to handle Atlantic Basin season. See you all in September.
Good morning to all.

The days keep passing in August and it looks more and more that the month will not produce the first hurricane of the season.
1176. LargoFl
Here is what it looked like yesterday in a tampa neighborhood and this storm went on into the night..you would not belive the continous Lighting and the booming and the very heavy rains...
1177. Gearsts
I have 9-0-0 for this year... September will not be active unless something is done about the mammoth agglomeration of dry air in the catl.
1179. Gearsts
Quoting 1176. LargoFl:
Here is what it looked like yesterday in a tampa neighborhood and this storm went on into the night..you would not belive the continous Lighting and the booming and the very heavy rains...


I believe it because I drove through it. The storm was a bit stronger than normal.
eastern carib nice spin with showers a few of the characters thought this area had a chance yesterday
252 hours

1183. MahFL
Quoting 1147. unknowncomic:
A good cool front that makes it farther south will add instability. Of course that will increase the chance of OTS storms.The MJO is supposed to really kick in at month's end also.


Cold fronts normally bring cooler dryer more stable air behind them, that's the last thing needed for tropical development.
Quoting 1176. LargoFl:
Here is what it looked like yesterday in a tampa neighborhood and this storm went on into the night..you would not belive the continous Lighting and the booming and the very heavy rains...



That's been the story all summer around parts of the panhandle Largo. Bummer for all affected.
1185. Gearsts
Last pic 192hr possible TS
1186. MahFL
Quoting 1176. LargoFl:
Here is what it looked like yesterday in a tampa neighborhood and this storm went on into the night..you would not belive the continous Lighting and the booming and the very heavy rains...


I thought Tampa Bay was the lightning capital of the world, so it is believable.
324 hours

1188. Gearsts
The euro has a strong vort area over PR the same area the gfs shows.Link
Last frame shows a hurricane approaching the Leeward Islands.

1190. Gearsts
Quoting 1187. Civicane49:
324 hours

Last run the 00z it had the 2 systems dancing and going ots but i know the gfs will keep changing. And finally the gfs is moving the time frame down.
1191. Gearsts
lol
1192. WxLogic
Good Morning
Quoting 1191. Gearsts:
lol


Is important to note as you said the timeframe is down on this run. Let's see if it continues at 12z.
1194. barbamz
Good morning!
Timelapse of a storm August 19 at Nuremberg/Germany.

two wks out but this one looks to be the real deal
1196. SLU
Quoting 1193. Tropicsweatherpr:


Is important to note as you said the timeframe is down on this run. Let's see if it continues at 12z.


It probably won't but the pattern is for increased activity from next week with the possibility of a power packed September
1197. barbamz

This stormy guy in the northern Atl, approaching Europe, maybe will ruin our weekend when we have a lot of guests open air in our weekend garden :(
Quoting 1191. Gearsts:
lol


Moaning, weathergeeks! ;) Gearsts, that looks eerily ominous.
1200. SLU
Crow will be an endangered species by year end given the number of naysayers calling 2013 a bust.

-0.627

1201. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Good morning everyone! Well one day without rain yesterday after a weekend that brought 6 inches Fri - Sun. Not sure we'll make it through two, 60% chance of rain again today but then 30-40% chances for several days after that. Tropics still look quiet so no doubt the "season is a bust" crowd will be out in force today.
1203. K8eCane
I hope the new super GFS is fairly kink free by now so at least we wont be blindsided. that's pretty hard to do with a cane this day in time. Should always be plenty of warning
Received 1.23" of rain in 45 minutes yesterday. It came down so hard I could not see the house across the street.

1205. K8eCane
I have found that factor X is not really location, but strength. That's what will blindside us sometimes
I take a day off and all the Atlantic storms disappear. Hmm...that seems to give me a considerable amount of power over hurricane season.

So how much is it worth to you all to have an active season? lol
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST TUE AUG 20 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C...LOCATED AROUND 1250 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE KAUAI. PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER TCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO...WITH FORECAST
ADVISORIES FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA21
PHFO.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ABOUT 650
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. INTENSIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE...IF ANY...OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE SLOW. IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

KINEL
Everyone see all the storms over Northern Africa, that might put a damper on the dust in the next week or two.
Lots of rain on tap for FL. Just as it has been since April 1st.

1210. MahFL
Quoting 1209. StormTrackerScott:
Lots of rain on tap for FL. Just as it has been since April 1st.



Most of that rain seems offshore to me.
1211. Guysgal
Very ominous article on global extinction in one lifetime! Link
1212. K8eCane
I found out yesterday that my dads homeowners insurance is twice what mine is because he is about 3 miles east of hwy 17 and im about 3 miles west of 17 with neither of us in a flood zone. Both NC Underwriters
1213. VR46L
Quoting 1208. 69Viking:
Everyone see all the storms over Northern Africa, that might put a damper on the dust in the next week or two.


The waves seem to be rather southerly in central Africa

G'morning from Central OK,

Thanks for the coffee and the breakfast!
A pleasant 69 degrees F here as well. Forecasted to by dry here for the next couple of weeks with a slow return to normal summer temps. Kinda' mirrors the ATL for now.

Good news is that with all the rain we have had, it looks like fire season will be cancelled this year! Curious to see with the fall mini-tornado season will bring.

Little one's first day of first grade today. So, I'll catch you later!

Quoting 1211. Guysgal:
Very ominous article on global extinction in one lifetime! Link


FYI - Link not working. Guysgal. Try this one

LINK
1216. K8eCane
Quoting 1211. Guysgal:
Very ominous article on global extinction in one lifetime! Link


Most of that was lost on me. I did read through it though, with the last paragraph completely understandable and ominous to a layperson like me
Quoting 1210. MahFL:


Most of that rain seems offshore to me.


What are talking about you can hardly see FL in that map.
1218. FOREX
Quoting 1209. StormTrackerScott:
Lots of rain on tap for FL. Just as it has been since April 1st.



Just wanted your thoughts of the wave at around 8N 33W?
Quoting 1213. VR46L:


The waves seem to be rather southerly in central Africa



I have found it curious that the Atlantic hasn't had many cyclones form at a more southern latitude, at least compared to other basins. The location of the ITCZ and geography of Africa likely have to do with that. The southernmost cyclone formation in the NATL was 1990's Isidore at 7.2N. I'd like to see something of that nature just for curiosity sake.
This is a dangerous pattern for the SE US. I sure hope people in FL have their Hurricane Kits ready to go and if need be have an evacuation plan in place.



We haven't seen a pattern like this since 2004.
Quoting 1220. StormTrackerScott:
This is a dangerous pattern for the SE US. I sure hope people in FL have their Hurricane Kits ready to go and if need be have an evacuation plan in place.



We haven't seen a pattern like this since 2004.
Yeah at 384 hours out.Whooo scary!.They better start the evacuations in the Bahamas! and in the next 24 hours Florida.
Quoting 1218. FOREX:


Just wanted your thoughts of the wave at around 8N 33W?


It's interesting but it's attached to the ITCZ so developement would be very slim.

Quoting 1217. StormTrackerScott:


What are talking about you can hardly see FL in that map.


Zooming in on it, most of the reds are just offshore in the GOM, but FL still looks to have the wettest forecast in the CONUS.
Quoting 1221. washingtonian115:
Yeah at 384 hours out.Whooo scary!.They better start the evacuations in the Bahamas! and in the next 24 hours Florida.


I'm talking about the pattern because the pattern doesn't look like it wants to break down and if it doesn't then the SE US in for big time trouble. So read the post and don't be silly.
Ughh...pffft...frustrating, development or no development GFS? Why are you torturing us like this?





Quoting 1217. StormTrackerScott:


What are talking about you can hardly see FL in that map.

I can see where Florida is fine enough to see that the largest amounts of rain are offshore.
The ridging here extends from the Azores all the way to the SE US. Bad bad situation here IF we were to get a storm going.

1228. SLU
Quoting 1221. washingtonian115:
Yeah at 384 hours out.Whooo scary!.They better start the evacuations in the Bahamas! and in the next 24 hours Florida.


LOL wash.

But in all fairness, the pattern has been that way all season long. One can deduce a great deal from the ghost storms on the GFS.
Quoting 1224. StormTrackerScott:


I'm talking about the pattern because the pattern doesn't look like it wants to break down and if it doesn't then the SE US in for big time trouble. So read the post and don't be silly.
Take it with a grain of salt, me and Kori had a big discussion about it late last night about the Arctic blocking and troughing pattern in the Atlantic we have seen the last 4 years and it looks like that pattern wants to come back. I still think we are in for 1, maybe 2 Cape-Verde storms making landfall in the US.
Quoting 1213. VR46L:


The waves seem to be rather southerly in central Africa



Good Morning; I was looking at that too this morning. The current African waves are really being suppressed way down below the 10N mark which is not exactly typical for mid-to-late August in terms of the ITCZ. It is firing in position nicely on the E-Pac side but a big void in the Atlantic Basin at the moment. If you look at the Polar composite satt (I can't find the link right now but Keeper of the Gate usually posts it), there is some suppression going on on the African Continent as well.

Here is the reg shot of the Eastern Atlantic from NOAA; you can clearly see how the ITCZ is being pushed down to the SW at the moment:

Link

1231. SLU
Quoting 1225. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ughh...pffft...frustrating, development or no development GFS? Why are you torturing us like this?







The EURO tends to flop with cyclogenesis.

The GFS fabricates ghost storms on almost every run.

Not sure which one is worse but that's all we've got!
1232. StormWx
Quoting MahFL:


Most of that rain seems offshore to me.


yes I agree, it does appear offshore of the west coast. Florida is always getting rain in the summer, its not like this is a rare occurrence like some make it out to be.
Quoting 1231. SLU:


The EURO tends to flop with cyclogenesis.

The GFS fabricates ghost storms on almost every run.

Not sure which one is worse but that's all we've got!
It's like pick your poison. At some point the Atlantic will fire away like a cannon ball and the storms will line-up. This MJO pulse that is propagating eastward is a very strong one and could very well be that spark that we have been missing in the Atlantic all this season. That would help to kick off instability as well which has been lacking due to the stronger high suppressing activity.
Quoting 1227. StormTrackerScott:
The ridging here extends from the Azores all the way to the SE US. Bad bad situation here IF we were to get a storm going.



Its being like that since the beginning of the season with some fluctuations of course, but mainly the ridge have been strong and extending all the way to the US. Also I have noticed like many others here that the waves coming out of Africa are coming out quite to the south. I think these factors have also contributed to the lack of activity, but I promise you this will change and when a strong CV hurricane happens I just hope it finds some weakness and turns North or we in the US will be in trouble.
1235. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is a dangerous pattern for the SE US. I sure hope people in FL have their Hurricane Kits ready to go and if need be have an evacuation plan in place.



We haven't seen a pattern like this since 2004.


So only people in FL need to have their hurricane kits ready? Seems like you have some wish casting going on 300 hours out :-) What i would have said was "The long range forecasts are showing ridging across the atlantic, we'll have to wait and see if it verifies as models this far out are fantasyland. Also, its always best to be prepared during hurricane season if you live along the Gulf or East Coast, no matter if you live in Texas, FL, or NYC".

See doesnt that seem a little less dramatic? lol
1236. mrmombq
Quoting 1227. StormTrackerScott:
The ridging here extends from the Azores all the way to the SE US. Bad bad situation here IF we were to get a storm going.

This wave over Africa is the best candidate : SYNOPSIS 2013082000

P24L
12N, 2E
700 hPa


ECMWF: Pouch center determined for all times. Tracks west and then WNW. OW increases slightly upon hitting the Atlantic.

GFS: Consistent story. Temporarily loses latitude for first ~36 hours. OW values relatively high for a pouch over Africa. Pouch center determined for all times. Phase speed slower than ECMWF and UKMET, but not as slow as in previous forecasts.

UKMET: Uncertain position only in the analysis. Then a distinct pouch tracks westward for the remainder of the five-day forecast. Phase speed is still faster than ECMWF and GFS, but not as fast as in previous forecasts.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN: Continues to be much slower than the other models, but it is faster than yesterday's 12Z forecast. Like GFS, dips to the south on Day1. OW shoots up after 12 hours. Depicted as a strong pouch when near the African coast.


ECMWF -7.7 v700 120h
GFS -6.6 v700 120h
UKMET -8.0 v700 120h
NAVGEM ---- ---- ---h
HWGEN -4.4 v700 120h
Here is today's ITCZ Hovmoller chart; notice how the E-Pac ITCZ (top graphics) is firing nicely right at the magical 10N mark versus the Atlantic ITCZ (bottom graphics) which is firing well below 10 at about the about the 8N mark. A short-term anomaly but I do not know the reasons. Perhaps one of the Africa watchers can provide us with some guidance; probably some continental factors that are causing some kind of kink in the African Easterly Jet pushing the waves down to the SW at the moment well below the Cape Verde Islands.

Link
Quoting 1233. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's like pick your poison. At some point the Atlantic will fire away like a cannon ball and the storms will line-up. This MJO pulse that is propagating eastward is a very strong one and could very well be that spark that we have been missing in the Atlantic all this season. That would help to kick off instability as well which has been lacking due to the stronger high suppressing activity.


Yeah notice the dark greens over by the Cape Verde islands at the end of the month. Just in time for the Peak of Hurricane Season.

Lots of mid level rotation in general area of yesterday's blob SW of Florida. Right now it's got no convection, so no threat to mix down, but if it gets some it might be a feature to watch.
1240. SLU
Quoting 1229. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Take it with a grain of salt, me and Kori had a big discussion about it late last night about the Arctic blocking and troughing pattern in the Atlantic we have seen the last 4 years and it looks like that pattern wants to come back. I still think we are in for 1, maybe 2 Cape-Verde storms making landfall in the US.


His scale was way too large thus most of the data was hidden as "neutral".

Adjusting the scale shows that the stronger than normal ridging has returned in the last 10 days or so compared to the very start of the month.

Look at that large nose in the ridge that stretches across the Atlantic. That's enough ridging to keep a Cape Verde hurricane moving right through the Caribbean and straight into the Gulf coast. The lower-than-normal heights across the Caribbean and the Gulf actually indicate exactly where the storms will track. Indeed an extremely dangerous pattern.

August 1st - 8th
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

August 9th - 17th
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Yesterday's storms were of the typical sea breeze variety, and quite fun to watch. Looking forward to more today. I love me some good storms.
Tuesday morning Atlantic Satellite...

Quoting 1238. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah notice the dark greens over by the Cape Verde islands at the end of the month. Just in time for the Peak of Hurricane Season.

Yeah I see that and trying to sneak in to the Western Caribbean as well.
1244. SLU
Quoting 1233. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's like pick your poison. At some point the Atlantic will fire away like a cannon ball and the storms will line-up. This MJO pulse that is propagating eastward is a very strong one and could very well be that spark that we have been missing in the Atlantic all this season. That would help to kick off instability as well which has been lacking due to the stronger high suppressing activity.


My sentiments are the same.
Quoting 1235. StormWx:


So only people in FL need to have their hurricane kits ready? Seems like you have some wish casting going on 300 hours out :-) What i would have said was "The long range forecasts are showing ridging across the atlantic, we'll have to wait and see if it verifies as models this far out are fantasyland. Also, its always best to be prepared during hurricane season if you live along the Gulf or East Coast, no matter if you live in Texas, FL, or NYC".

See doesnt that seem a little less dramatic? lol


The ridging has been in place all summer. If the ridge continues that strong come late August then yes FL is in trouble and potentially the Carolina's if a weakness developes because of a trough coming east.
That 384hricane on the GFS does look ominous, especially with the configuration of the subtropical ridge. Consistent in the solution will be the next thing to look out for, before jumping to any conclusions.
We know that the current ridging pattern in the Atlantic is poised for potential trajectories towards the Caribbean and beyond but we just to wait to see what the next 2 weeks bring; you can't have any robust Cape Verde storms until the current void in the Atlantic ICTZ fills in again to establish the "launch pad"............... You will probably need about 3-4 nice African waves to re-moisten the area before we see one fully develop.

My point is that I would not jump on the "first" wave that any of the models develop until we see what the overall conditions ahead of it are like and where SAL stands a that time.
I'm still tracking Tropical Storm Pewa, currently disorganized. There are two opposite predictions for this storm. The JTWC is expecting Pewa to steadily strengthen, while the JMA is expecting it to strengthen only little, just enough to be a severe tropical storm, then weaken afterwards. Here is the latest NWS Advisory.
WTPQ31 PGUM 201000
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP012013
800 PM CHST TUE AUG 20 2013
...TROPICAL STORM PEWA HAS WEAKENED...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 174.3E
ABOUT 475 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 680 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE...AND
ABOUT 1980 MILES EAST OF GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PEWA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.3
EAST.
TROPICAL STORM PEWA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. PEWA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM PEWA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Yes the pattern is sure to be the way exactly how the model depicts it 16 days out.Just like how Isaac was suppose to go to NYC..
Quoting 1211. Guysgal:
Very ominous article on global extinction in one lifetime! Link

Not impossible, but very, very, very unlikely.
Summer Makes a Comeback From Minneapolis to Chicago and New York
Quoting 1237. weathermanwannabe:
Here is today's ITCZ Hovmoller chart; notice how the E-Pac ITCZ (top graphics) is firing nicely right at the magical 10N mark versus the Atlantic ITCZ (bottom graphics) which is firing well below 10 at about the about the 8N mark. A short-term anomaly but I do not know the reasons. Perhaps one of the Africa watchers can provide us with some guidance; probably some continental factors that are causing some kind of kink in the African Easterly Jet pushing the waves down to the SW at the moment well below the Cape Verde Islands.

Link


WWB, fairly easy to discern, imo. The subtropical ridge has been unusually deeper in latitude than usual. Notice how far south the 1016mb iso reaches towards the ITCZ. A few weeks back only it neared 5n. Ultimately, this will recede more northerly and the trades will fire/converge as they should, and in tandem with approaching twaves. It's going to take some consistent, heckuva troughing to puncture, change the pattern. Just not seeing that right now. I look for September to be incredibly active and into October before we see the atmospheric lag catch up into the prevailing, typical late fall pattern.

1253. StormWx
Summer is back in the north. Its a roller coaster of fun.

1254. K8eCane
I don't really like to say a specific place as my concerns unless I get a strong silly feeling about it. And theres no science in my projections usually lol
But I really think a major will make landfall this year.
Of course since im from the eastern us my feelings include from Tx to Maine LOLOLOL
But I don't want anybody ANYWHERE to get hurt
I would just say it wouldn't hurt for us all to make sure our insurance papers are in order. That never hurts ( I don't mean life insurance, but hey that don't hurt either)
1252. moonlightcowboy 8:49 AM EDT on August 20, 2013

Thanks. You will notice from the 200 mb chart below that the Atlantic Tutt is nicely "in place" in a horizontal position (where it should be) this time of the year along the axis of the sub-tropical ridge just below it. All of the ingredients are there but you just need that nudge to the North as you are noting:

Link
1256. StormWx
Quoting Rmadillo:
That 384hricane on the GFS does look ominous, especially with the configuration of the subtropical ridge. Consistent in the solution will be the next thing to look out for, before jumping to any conclusions.


Hope you have your hurricane kit ready for that storm 384 hours out.
Quoting 1251. hurricanes2018:
Summer Makes a Comeback From Minneapolis to Chicago and New York


Makes a comeback maybe in NY but not in Chicago as there hasn't been a summer. My wife's family is from Chicago and they said they are welcoming the heat as it has been a very cool summer up there.
Quoting 1238. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah notice the dark greens over by the Cape Verde islands at the end of the month. Just in time for the Peak of Hurricane Season.



For a few weeks now I've maintained that we'd have a lull in activity up through the end of August until the stronger MJO pulse came back around. And, imo, indicative of a wild ride in September.
1259. LargoFl
Quoting 1255. weathermanwannabe:
1252. moonlightcowboy 8:49 AM EDT on August 20, 2013

Thanks. You will notice from the 200 mb chart below that the Atlantic Tutt is nicely "in place" in a horizontal position (where it should be) this time of the year along the axis of the sub-tropical ridge. All of the ingredients are there but you just need that nudge to the North as you are noting:

Link


I think you pegged it. It's coming.
Quoting 1256. StormWx:


Hope you have your hurricane kit ready for that storm 384 hours out.


You should always have a hurricane kit ready. If you get one ready right before a storm comes then you likely will have waited to long so stop with your silly remarks and go back to your bunker NEFL.
Good Morning!

6:59 am (10:59 GMT)

Today's sunrise from Lantana, Florida.

Mine is the sunlight, mine is the morning
Born of the one light, Eden saw play.
Praise with elation, praise every morning -
God's recreation of the new day!

YouTube video



Who Do You Love (pt.1)

I walked forty-seven miles of barbed wire,
Got a cobra snake for a necktie,
Got a brand new house by the road side,
Made out of rattlesnake hide.
Got me a chimney that's right on the top,
Made from a human skull,
Come on, take a little walk and tell me
Now, who do you love?
Who do you love?

Come on Arlene, take me by my hand,
Let me know that you'll understand me.
Who do you love?

Ride nine times on the midnight train
Through the fire and cold, hard rain.
Who do you love?

A graveyard hand in a tombstone mine,
Just twenty-two and I don't mind dyin'.
Who do you love?


Happy Trails everyone!
About as quiet as it can be in mid-late August, with not even a tropical depression anywhere and no immediate prospects for one.
Although one of the current series of tropical waves coming off Africa managed to get a name (Erin), the storm was short-lived and weak, like most of them have been so far this season have been (Dorian survived longer than the others but too was unable to strengthen much).
Even though there have already been five tropical storms, above the long-term average for this point in the season and only slightly below the average during the busy past decade, there is a measure which considers not only how many storms but also their strength and longevity, known as "Accumulated Cyclone Energy" (ACE); so far that is running at less than half of average, and Erin and other tropical waves/storms from Africa have struggled.
Exactly why is tricky to ascertain and there might be more than one reason, but what seems to be a primary factor, in particular since the start of August when tropical waves from Africa typically have a better chance of developing than earlier in the season, is drier-than-average air in the lower-mid part of the atmosphere, especially about 1-2 miles up. (Which in turn seems to be the result of other meteorological stuff like pressures, wind speed/direction, etc., bringing dry air from Africa and offshore of Europe.)
Whatever the case, the question now becomes, what happens from this point on? While something would have to be exceptionally unusual for the season to not eventually get quite a bit more active than it's been and the atmosphere not start producing hurricanes, will systems coming from Africa -- which can hit the eastern Caribbean and sometimes reach North America -- continue to have these unconducive conditions to overcome? Or will that change? What about the Gulf, subtropical Atlantic, and western Caribbean, where storms can explode (like many of them did during 2005)? What will the tracks be of any storms which form?


Good questions! And we don't know the answers -- stay tuned, as we'll be closely monitoring conditions in the weeks to come -- but the bottom line for people, as it always is no matter what is going on: don't become complacent.


While we're now noticeably more into the peak of the season on the graph below than we were a couple of weeks ago, historically on average about 3/4 of all hurricanes are yet to develop after today's date. And as an example of what can happen, in 1988, the first hurricane (Debby) did not form until early September, and that was the year that went on to produce Hurricane Gilbert, one of the strongest on record, and devastating to the Caribbean region. Hopefully nothing like that will occur this year, but best to be prepared just in case.
1264. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
838 AM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

PRC025-069-077-085-095-109-129-151-201530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0228.130820T1238Z-130820T1530Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
CAGUAS PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
838 AM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...SAN
LORENZO...YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 1130 AM AST

* AT 834 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL RESULT
IN URBAN FLOODING AND RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
1265. LargoFl
Morning everyone...........NOT sure this will be an above average season! Shear has trended WELL above average in nearly every sector of the MDR. Not sure I see any signs that will change.
Quoting 1253. StormWx:
Summer is back in the north. Its a roller coaster of fun.

summer coming back
Quoting 1249. washingtonian115:
Yes the pattern is sure to be the way exactly how the model depicts it 16 days out.Just like how Isaac was suppose to go to NYC..

Here's how I feel about using models out in the long-range:
If you're going to use the GFS at 10 days+ out to forecast specific track and intensities, then you're going to have a bad time. Models that far out are going to change since there are so many variables that can and will change over the course of multiple days.
However, looking at the models at over 7-10 days out for trends in cyclonegenesis or the steering pattern is another thing. It is also helpful to look at the ensembles and the ensemble mean for the two things stated above.
Finally, at least imo, the GFS is better at sniffing out development while the ECMWF is better usually when we have an actual storm (unless it is a weak/shallow system that the model won't pick up well.)
1269. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You should always have a hurricane kit ready. If you get one ready right before a storm comes then you likely will have waited to long so stop with your silly remarks and go back to your bunker NEFL.


I was kindly advising Rmadillo to make sure he is prepared, in case of a Cat 5 staring him down 384 hours out. Its always better to be prepared for the worse, IMO.

As for the weather in Chicago you mentioned there is not a comeback in heat, it was 86 yesterday and forecasted 88 today. 1 week ago the high was 71. So my interpretation is that a 15 degree increase in temperature to the upper 80s from low 70s is a comeback. JMHO :-)
Quoting 1212. K8eCane:
I found out yesterday that my dads homeowners insurance is twice what mine is because he is about 3 miles east of hwy 17 and im about 3 miles west of 17 with neither of us in a flood zone. Both NC Underwriters


Location might not be the reason. Most of the time it's age of the house that really affects the insurance. Older homes were built under older code so their insurance is higher.
Quoting 1266. TampaSpin:
Morning everyone...........NOT sure this will be an above average season! Shear has trended WELL above average in nearly every sector of the MDR. Not sure I see any signs that will change.


I believe it is time to lower the forecast numbers. I thought we would see 17-19 storms. I now think 12-13. To get to those numbers conditions have to get better in the Atlantic basin.
Gonna get some work done; will check back later. Have a good morning.
The GMM

(Gambling Man's Model)

It is August 20th. Never seen a September without a tropical storm in the Atlantic. The GMM says soon.
Quoting 1266. TampaSpin:
Morning everyone...........NOT sure this will be an above average season! Shear has trended WELL above average in nearly every sector of the MDR. Not sure I see any signs that will change.


Good morning everyone. I'm not ready to call it a busted season yet. Models don't do too well predicting 'homegrown' and/or post-frontal storms.

I wish I were more skilled at posting SatImages.... There is a nice pre-swirlie (mid lvl vort.??) sitting over near the FL keys for at least the past 24 hrs. The gulf is getting moister, and some call the water there near the loop current 'rocket fuel'.

I'm not generally predisposed to being a wishcaster, but being that close to FL perhaps it is worth keeping an eye on it. BBL after some work.
I am not sure which one win with 92L Euro that didn`t even show an invest or gfs who show a ts.both of them are in the extreme.
Quoting 1271. clwstmchasr:


I believe it is time to lower the forecast numbers. I thought we would see 17-19 storms. I now think 12-13. To get to those numbers conditions have to get better in the Atlantic basin.


Too many fronts causing too much Shear......and these have been some very strong fronts.
Quoting 1257. StormTrackerScott:


Makes a comeback maybe in NY but not in Chicago as there hasn't been a summer. My wife's family is from Chicago and they said they are welcoming the heat as it has been a very cool summer up there.

Can't speak for Chicago, but in nearby Detroit, summer has only been cool from the last half of July to the first half of August. Actually, summer has averaged out to be pretty normal for the temperatures in Detroit, just it's been a lot cooler than the record-breaking, non-stop heat from the past few summers. It's also been wetter than the past few summers over here. Instead of being in drought, albeit on moderate, at times in the past few summers, summer has been the 11th wettest in Detroit at about 4.00" above normal. Looks like the upper 80s should only be around for a few days before a cold front comes through and drops the temps.
good morning. this season its going to be harder for the east coast trough to recurve all the storms. typically when the MJO is in octants 1 and 2 during the peak it favors ridging rather than troughing. all going to be about timing.
Quoting 1274. MechEngMet:


Good morning everyone. I'm not ready to call it a busted season yet. Models don't do too well predicting 'homegrown' and/or post-frontal storms.

I wish I were more skilled at posting SatImages.... There is a nice pre-swirlie (mid lvl vort.??) sitting over near the FL keys for at least the past 24 hrs. The gulf is getting moister, and some call the water there near the loop current 'rocket fuel'.

I'm not generally predisposed to being a wishcaster, but being that close to FL perhaps it is worth keeping an eye on it. BBL after some work.


Its an ULL ....NOTHING happens there......ULL are the Shear makers!
I would never call a season a bust.....a bust is only to those not affected!
1282. ARiot
I was wrong. I predicted on here that the hurricane train would spin up by August 19 or so.

Now that no one is listening, I will predict a very strong, very late storm.

Anyway, for something real, the excess rain in the SE, while a PITA, is exceptional. I've not seen a year like this since 89-90. It's really amazing to look at some of the rainfall totals and compare them to averages. We are lucky in the TN Valley. Mega rain and plenty of karst geology to store it all.
TRIPLE HIT on the 6z GFS....xD
The moisture field associated with the southern axis of the twave out at 30w is slowing expanding and adding moisture westwards towards the South American coastline, and that should serve to help pave the way as WWB stated earlier for future twaves. And, notice too, that storms are exiting the African coast both southerly and northerly, meaning the MDR is getting moist and ripening for development, albeit quite slowly. With the added MJO upward pulse coming back around towards month's end and into September, I've little doubt that we'll have more than enough to follow.



African coastline Meteosat loop
Morning Dexter, Moonlight Cowboy, and everyone with a smile on their face on this lovely Tuesday morning!! Nothing but brilliant sunshine from the woods. Another typical late August dog day of summer. Dexter you are listening??

Ains, thanks for breakfast. Glad the tropics are quite. Wishcasters just deal with it. You will get you storms later on.

Shear remains below average in the GOMEX:


Average in the Caribbean:


Slightly below average in the Tropical Atlantic:


The only place that's been trending really above average is the East Coast, which is bad news if you're looking for non-tropical frontal spinoffs.
Quoting 1284. moonlightcowboy:
The moisture field associated with the southern axis of the twave out at 30w is slowing expanding and adding moisture westwards towards the South American coastline, and that should serve to help pave the way as WWB stated earlier for future twaves. And, notice too, that storms are exiting the African coast both southerly and northerly, meaning the MDR is getting moist and ripening for development, albeit quite slowly. With the added MJO upward pulse coming back around towards month's end and into September, I've little doubt that we'll have more than enough to follow.



African coastline Meteosat loop

Exactly. MJO will pulse soon, and conditions will fall into place. Just better keep these storms out away from land!!
Quoting 1261. StormTrackerScott:


You should always have a hurricane kit ready. If you get one ready right before a storm comes then you likely will have waited to long so stop with your silly remarks and go back to your bunker NEFL.

Was this meant for me? What did I do???
Quoting 1286. CybrTeddy:
Shear remains below average in the GOMEX:


Average in the Caribbean:


Slightly below average in the Tropical Atlantic:


The only place that's been trending really above average is the East Coast, which is bad news if you're looking for non-tropical frontal spinoffs.


Nice post, CT. Thanks.
Very favorable environment being shown by the GFS at the latter end of the run.
115 hours a weak tropical storm
Quoting 1288. NEFLWATCHING:

Was this meant for me? What did I do???


No not you. LOL
Quoting 1289. moonlightcowboy:


Nice post, CT. Thanks.

Thinking CV train will get a rollin' all nite long (Aerosmith haha) and we'll get a lil homegrown action too. A double whammy.
1294. K8eCane
Quoting 1270. 69Viking:


Location might not be the reason. Most of the time it's age of the house that really affects the insurance. Older homes were built under older code so their insurance is higher.


Yeah youre right absolutely and he and I talked about it. But he said Phil Cheers, his agent, told him that there is a markedly higher rate simply due to that slim barrier of highway 17, a 2 lane rd.
Quoting 1271. clwstmchasr:


I believe it is time to lower the forecast numbers. I thought we would see 17-19 storms. I now think 12-13. To get to those numbers conditions have to get better in the Atlantic basin.

Well, we already have 5 named storms that have formed. That means to get to 12-13, we only need 7-8 more named storms. We may get the lower amount alone in September. Add that to possibly at late storm in August and a few storms in October and November, and we hit 16-19 storms. A decent amount of people are A) impatient with the hurricane season and B) don't realize how much the Atlantic can churn out. We have had mostly above average SST's in the MDR, Caribbean, and GOM. Shear has been AOB normal in the Atlantic besides the Caribbean where the TUTT has been persistent (but it should weaken and move farther north soon). The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) hasn't been super bad like some people are making it out to be. There is a lot less SAL now than there was a few weeks ago, and it will only continue to lessen. A stable, sinking air mass, along with some higher pressures, has been the problem out in the Atlantic with the downward MJO phase and a strong high to the north. As a strong MJO pulse works into Octants 1 and 2, shown by the ECMWF and the GFS, there will be more rising, unstable air over the tropical Atlantic. This should help increase vertical instability and give tropical waves coming off Africa a favorable environment to strengthen in. While the set-up isn't the most favorable in the world, it sure will be favorable enough to generate a good amount of named storms and hurricanes, with a few becoming majors. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season won't be a bust.
Quoting 1292. StormTrackerScott:


No not you. LOL

Phew- thanks. I try not to intrude ;-)
only 72 HOURS 1007 MB
1299. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Thinking CV train will get a rollin' all nite long (Aerosmith haha) and we'll get a lil homegrown action too. A double whammy.


The CV train's gonna have to travel through the dust unless the dust settles then its whammy time. ;)
Anyone else notice that WU has a tropical system shown in the Gulf of Guinea off of Africa? Talk about wish casting? Or is there something I don't know about?
I imagine the blog would have called 2001 a "bust" season by this point, which I'm starting to see parallels between the activity rampup in 2001 vs. what the GFS is starting to show. If the experts are still calling for an active season, it'll probably be active.

16/6/4 is my updated forecast.
1302. Relix
GFS has a Sept 5 Hurricane that looks bad for the islands. :O. Of course its fantasy land :P
Quoting 1286. CybrTeddy:
Shear remains below average in the GOMEX:


Average in the Caribbean:


Slightly below average in the Tropical Atlantic:


The only place that's been trending really above average is the East Coast, which is bad news if you're looking for non-tropical frontal spinoffs.



IN NO WAY those graphics are accurate. Reason I took them off my site last year.
here we go!!
1305. K8eCane
Quoting 1294. K8eCane:


Yeah youre right absolutely and he and I talked about it. But he said Phil Cheers, his agent, told him that there is a markedly higher rate simply due to that slim barrier of highway 17, a 2 lane rd.


Reminded me of an example. Back in 89 Hurricane Hugo was headed in this general direction( Wilmington NC). It was a cat 4 and being projected by many forecasters to come right into Wilmington. Conditions changed rapidly and it turned into Charleston SC as a cat 4. Well our local forecasters were freaking out. They were saying " EVERYBODY ON THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 GET TO THE WEST ASAP". In turn, I was freaking out because I was about a half mile east. My mom said she didn't know why im nervous because " we have a perfectly good boat in the backyard" lol
Somehow that made me feel no better
Quoting 1303. TampaSpin:



IN NO WAY those graphics are accurate. Reason I took them off my site last year.


What would you consider "inaccurate" about them?

Shear looks favorable on the GFS too.
very weak storms to september 5 2013
In reading about the SAL, is it higher than most seasons ? Is it expected to decrease ?
Quoting 1306. CybrTeddy:


What would you consider "inaccurate" about them?

Shear looks favorable on the GFS too.



Has not nearly every storm this year been under Shear that has tore it apart.
Quoting 1308. hurricanehanna:
In reading about the SAL, is it higher than most seasons ? Is it expected to decrease ?
lots more SAL for next week to.
1311. K8eCane
Quoting 1309. TampaSpin:



Has not nearly every storm this year been under Shear that has tore it apart.



Yeah Tampa But do you honestly take that to mean every one of them WILL from here on out?
Quoting 1295. wxchaser97:

Well, we already have 5 named storms that have formed. That means to get to 12-13, we only need 7-8 more named storms. We may get the lower amount alone in September. Add that to possibly at late storm in August and a few storms in October and November, and we hit 16-19 storms. A decent amount of people are A) impatient with the hurricane season and B) don't realize how much the Atlantic can churn out. We have had mostly above average SST's in the MDR, Caribbean, and GOM. Shear has been AOB normal in the Atlantic besides the Caribbean where the TUTT has been persistent (but it should weaken and move farther north soon). The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) hasn't been super bad like some people are making it out to be. There is a lot less SAL now than there was a few weeks ago, and it will only continue to lessen. A stable, sinking air mass, along with some higher pressures, has been the problem out in the Atlantic with the downward MJO phase and a strong high to the north. As a strong MJO pulse works into Octants 1 and 2, shown by the ECMWF and the GFS, there will be more rising, unstable air over the tropical Atlantic. This should help increase vertical instability and give tropical waves coming off Africa a favorable environment to strengthen in. While the set-up isn't the most favorable in the world, it sure will be favorable enough to generate a good amount of named storms and hurricanes, with a few becoming majors. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season won't be a bust.


"Post Of The Day" ;)

Ok, y'all, there's a lull, so try not to bicker. There'll be plenty to follow soon enough. And, with that, I'm out to chase the day and a dollar. Have a nice day! :)
Quoting 1309. TampaSpin:



Has not nearly every storm this year been under Shear that has tore it apart.


Nope.

Andrea became, in the face of 20-30kt shear, a 65mph tropical storm.

Barry died due to closeness with land.

Chantal died due to its fast forward speed due to high trade winds in the eastern Caribbean, which is naturally a "graveyard" in July.

Dorian died due to stable air, when it regenerated as a TD it was sheared apart as it approached a front off Florida.

Erin died to due stable air.
12/4/3 is my updated forecast.
1315. K8eCane
Quoting 1311. K8eCane:



Yeah Tampa But do you honestly take that to mean every one of them WILL from here on out?


really though I do understand your point from a scientific view
we are going to see more stable air for the next two weeks
Quoting 1311. K8eCane:



Yeah Tampa But do you honestly take that to mean every one of them WILL from here on out?


I AM not saying that at all...i'm just saying that an above average season might not happen....that is all....
Quoting 1295. wxchaser97:

Well, we already have 5 named storms that have formed. That means to get to 12-13, we only need 7-8 more named storms. We may get the lower amount alone in September. Add that to possibly at late storm in August and a few storms in October and November, and we hit 16-19 storms. A decent amount of people are A) impatient with the hurricane season and B) don't realize how much the Atlantic can churn out. We have had mostly above average SST's in the MDR, Caribbean, and GOM. Shear has been AOB normal in the Atlantic besides the Caribbean where the TUTT has been persistent (but it should weaken and move farther north soon). The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) hasn't been super bad like some people are making it out to be. There is a lot less SAL now than there was a few weeks ago, and it will only continue to lessen. A stable, sinking air mass, along with some higher pressures, has been the problem out in the Atlantic with the downward MJO phase and a strong high to the north. As a strong MJO pulse works into Octants 1 and 2, shown by the ECMWF and the GFS, there will be more rising, unstable air over the tropical Atlantic. This should help increase vertical instability and give tropical waves coming off Africa a favorable environment to strengthen in. While the set-up isn't the most favorable in the world, it sure will be favorable enough to generate a good amount of named storms and hurricanes, with a few becoming majors. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season won't be a bust.


I never said the season would be a "bust" so don't quote me on that. If we don't get one more storm I still wouldn't call the season a "bust" because it is a stupid term to use when discussing weather.

I'm not being impatient. I can only see what is going on and that is conditions just are not that favorable in the Atlantic basin. However, I do believe they will become more favorable and I expect one storm late this month and 6-7 in Sept/Oct which is still pretty active. And I believe that the U.S. will get hit with 3-4 storms (don't know if they will be hurricanes or not). On thing to ponder - let's just say we go the next 11 days without a hurricane. That will be only the 5th time on record that we would have gone through August without a hurricane (source TWC).
1319. K8eCane
Quoting 1317. TampaSpin:


I AM not saying that at all...i'm just saying that an above average season might not happen....that is all....


yep. I understand your point
There appear to be a "pre-swirlie" of sorts near the keys.

Models are somewhat dubious when it comes to sniffing out this home-brew. Maybe just something to keep an eye on. It is August of a hyper-active season, after all, and all it takes is one.

Quoting 1306. CybrTeddy:


What would you consider "inaccurate" about them?

Shear looks favorable on the GFS too.


Jim Cantore (who I do respect) talked about conditions across the Atlantic and said that shear across the GOM and Caribbean is above average and dry, stable air dominates the Atlantic.
Quoting 1290. CybrTeddy:
Very favorable environment being shown by the GFS at the latter end of the run.



I think you need too re take a look at the map that is not showing Very favorable environment yes its showing vary favorable environment for the Caribbean but if you move in too the gulf its showing UN favorable envronmet same for the Tropical Atlantic:
Quoting 1322. Tazmanian:



I think you need too re take a look at the map that is not showing Very favorable environment yes its showing vary favorable environment for the Caribbean but if you move in too the gulf its showing in favorable envronmet same for the Tropical Atlantic:


That's an ULAC associated with a hurricane being shown on the GFS.
1324. SLU
Quoting 1295. wxchaser97:

Well, we already have 5 named storms that have formed. That means to get to 12-13, we only need 7-8 more named storms. We may get the lower amount alone in September. Add that to possibly at late storm in August and a few storms in October and November, and we hit 16-19 storms. A decent amount of people are A) impatient with the hurricane season and B) don't realize how much the Atlantic can churn out. We have had mostly above average SST's in the MDR, Caribbean, and GOM. Shear has been AOB normal in the Atlantic besides the Caribbean where the TUTT has been persistent (but it should weaken and move farther north soon). The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) hasn't been super bad like some people are making it out to be. There is a lot less SAL now than there was a few weeks ago, and it will only continue to lessen. A stable, sinking air mass, along with some higher pressures, has been the problem out in the Atlantic with the downward MJO phase and a strong high to the north. As a strong MJO pulse works into Octants 1 and 2, shown by the ECMWF and the GFS, there will be more rising, unstable air over the tropical Atlantic. This should help increase vertical instability and give tropical waves coming off Africa a favorable environment to strengthen in. While the set-up isn't the most favorable in the world, it sure will be favorable enough to generate a good amount of named storms and hurricanes, with a few becoming majors. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season won't be a bust.


Great logic. The signals this year aren't clear cut. There are lots of mixed signals. We need a trigger like a strong MJO to get the ball rolling.
Quoting 1318. clwstmchasr:


I never said the season would be a "bust" so don't quote me on that. If we don't get one more storm I still wouldn't call the season a "bust" because it is a stupid term to use when discussing weather.

I'm not being impatient. I can only see what is going on and that is conditions just are not that favorable in the Atlantic basin. However, I do believe they will become more favorable and I expect one storm late this month and 6-7 in Sept/Oct which is still pretty active. And I believe that the U.S. will get hit with 3-4 storms (don't know if they will be hurricanes or not). On thing to ponder - let's just say we go the next 11 days without a hurricane. That will be only the 5th time on record that we would have gone through August without a hurricane (source TWC).


UNTIL conditions change and they show nothing to me of doing so yet....things are not favorable....many are hoping for the MJO ride to occur and it might...but MJO impact has shown in the forecast in June to be in July.....in July to be in August and now August to be in September.....So HECK I don't know!
Quoting 1321. clwstmchasr:


Jim Cantore (who I do respect) talked about conditions across the Atlantic and said that shear across the GOM and Caribbean is above average and dry, stable air dominates the Atlantic.


He's right with the stable air, he's right with the Caribbean, GOMEX however is below average.
Quoting 1263. hurricanes2018:
About as quiet as it can be in mid-late August, with not even a tropical depression anywhere and no immediate prospects for one.
Although one of the current series of tropical waves coming off Africa managed to get a name (Erin), the storm was short-lived and weak, like most of them have been so far this season have been (Dorian survived longer than the others but too was unable to strengthen much).
Even though there have already been five tropical storms, above the long-term average for this point in the season and only slightly below the average during the busy past decade, there is a measure which considers not only how many storms but also their strength and longevity, known as "Accumulated Cyclone Energy" (ACE); so far that is running at less than half of average, and Erin and other tropical waves/storms from Africa have struggled.
Exactly why is tricky to ascertain and there might be more than one reason, but what seems to be a primary factor, in particular since the start of August when tropical waves from Africa typically have a better chance of developing than earlier in the season, is drier-than-average air in the lower-mid part of the atmosphere, especially about 1-2 miles up. (Which in turn seems to be the result of other meteorological stuff like pressures, wind speed/direction, etc., bringing dry air from Africa and offshore of Europe.)
Whatever the case, the question now becomes, what happens from this point on? While something would have to be exceptionally unusual for the season to not eventually get quite a bit more active than it's been and the atmosphere not start producing hurricanes, will systems coming from Africa -- which can hit the eastern Caribbean and sometimes reach North America -- continue to have these unconducive conditions to overcome? Or will that change? What about the Gulf, subtropical Atlantic, and western Caribbean, where storms can explode (like many of them did during 2005)? What will the tracks be of any storms which form?


Good questions! And we don't know the answers -- stay tuned, as we'll be closely monitoring conditions in the weeks to come -- but the bottom line for people, as it always is no matter what is going on: don't become complacent.


While we're now noticeably more into the peak of the season on the graph below than we were a couple of weeks ago, historically on average about 3/4 of all hurricanes are yet to develop after today's date. And as an example of what can happen, in 1988, the first hurricane (Debby) did not form until early September, and that was the year that went on to produce Hurricane Gilbert, one of the strongest on record, and devastating to the Caribbean region. Hopefully nothing like that will occur this year, but best to be prepared just in case.



Great post...It seems to me that many memebers on this blog are starting to raise the flag of surrender when it comes to this Hurricane season..I for one after watching and tracking storms for 35 years no a few facts...no matter what the conditions are now in the Atlantic we will get storms... and for some reason that I def cannot explain I feel that we are going to be seeing a BIG one this year...no science to back it up but we shall see...
Quoting 1325. TampaSpin:


UNTIL conditions change and they show nothing to me of doing so yet....things are not favorable....many are hoping for the MJO ride to occur and it might...but MJO impact has shown in the forecast in June to be in July.....in July to be in August and now August to be in September.....So HECK I don't know!


Not in this magnitude, and not by the ECMWF. The MJO has been consistently forecasted by the GFS to return to our basin, it hasn't verified while the ECMWF has done very well with predicting the MJO this season as it's meandered around the neutral area. It's now showing it returning to our basin, with a vengeance.
Quoting 1301. CybrTeddy:
I imagine the blog would have called 2001 a "bust" season by this point, which I'm starting to see parallels between the activity rampup in 2001 vs. what the GFS is starting to show. If the experts are still calling for an active season, it'll probably be active.

16/6/4 is my updated forecast.
14-7-3. not bad eh? 7 of the next 9 storms will be hurricanes. out of the 7 hurricanes, 3 will be major. similar numbers to 2003. 16-7-3 to 14-7-3
With all the rainfall recently in the South ... just be careful as the weather clears, and perhaps you start off to grill for the first time in maybe weeks ...

There could be spiders lurking under the grill cover. Ouch.

STAY/BE SAFE!
I gather by the dry air it brings with it this is a ULL crossing the Florida Peninsula? Looks like the GOM will be closed for any tropical business as long as this is hanging around.

Quoting 1323. CybrTeddy:


That's an ULAC associated with a hurricane being shown on the GFS.


Oh ok
Quoting 1322. Tazmanian:



I think you need too re take a look at the map that is not showing Very favorable environment yes its showing vary favorable environment for the Caribbean but if you move in too the gulf its showing UN favorable envronmet same for the Tropical Atlantic:


The Caribbean is not favorable either IMO....look at the Shear....


Before the season starts, no one person or organization really knows what's going to happen. They make their best predictions (educated guesses) and then modify them as the season goes along.
The world famous Dr. Gray (and his team) are frequently completely wrong with their seasonal forecast for hurricanes.

I remember one year Dr. Gray's team predicted it would be a below average season, yet the season ended up being a record breaker for tropical activity.

NASA Tracks Russian Meteor Plume

If this has been discussed, I missed it.

Is it likely that this band of comet dust is having an effect on storm formation or any of the other weather anomalies around the globe?

1336. StormWx
Quoting Rmadillo:
There appear to be a "pre-swirlie" of sorts near the keys.

Models are somewhat dubious when it comes to sniffing out this home-brew. Maybe just something to keep an eye on. It is August of a hyper-active season, after all, and all it takes is one.



Hmmm interesting feature down there. The NHC doesnt mention it, so for now just keep an eye on it. You could be on to something.
Quoting 1333. TampaSpin:


The Caribbean is not favorable either IMO....look at the Shear....




Shear looks like it'll become quite favorable by the end of the forecast period. Besides, the focus won't be in the Caribbean, it'll be in the MDR.
Quoting 1331. 69Viking:
I gather by the dry air it brings with it this is a ULL crossing the Florida Peninsula? Looks like the GOM will be closed for any tropical business as long as this is hanging around.



What happpened to the uppper level low that was in the GOM while 92L was trying to strengthen?

Quoting 1326. CybrTeddy:


He's right with the stable air, he's right with the Caribbean, GOMEX however is below average.


Not sure how that is the case with a ULL moving from East to West into the GOM. That should bring plenty of shear and dry air to the GOM.
Quoting 1337. CybrTeddy:


Shear looks like it'll become quite favorable by the end of the forecast period. Besides, the focus won't be in the Caribbean, it'll be in the MDR.


Exactly. The Caribbean will be focus for development in October.
1341. SLU
Quoting 1301. CybrTeddy:
I imagine the blog would have called 2001 a "bust" season by this point, which I'm starting to see parallels between the activity rampup in 2001 vs. what the GFS is starting to show. If the experts are still calling for an active season, it'll probably be active.

16/6/4 is my updated forecast.


Prior to 2004, most seasons since 1995 followed this year's pattern with very little activity before August 25th and a very busy September and October. Most of our bloggers are from the post-2004 era which has featured some very unusually active early periods most notably 2005 and most persons use these anomalies as a judge to compare every other season. Hence, every year when we don't have cat 4's in the Gulf of Mexico in July making landfall on US coastlines will be judged as a bust by these persons.

Quoting 1338. Sfloridacat5:


What happpened to the uppper level low that was in the GOM while 92L was trying to strengthen?



Not sure, it probably ate 92L and drifted into Mexico. It seems there are ULL's everywhere this year anytime a system tries to spin up.
1343. K8eCane
I was just reading from dr masters about when he flew through Hugo.
These hurricane hunters need to be admired and respected for sure.
Quoting 1328. CybrTeddy:


Not in this magnitude, and not by the ECMWF. The MJO has been consistently forecasted by the GFS to return to our basin, it hasn't verified while the ECMWF has done very well with predicting the MJO this season as it's meandered around the neutral area. It's now showing it returning to our basin, with a vengeance.


You can have all the MJO you want, as long as this dry air remains in the MDR, it's still going to hinder development. Starting to think the Cape Verde season is going minimal at best. Also, we've only got about 2-3 weeks before the "wave train" starts to wind down. It peaks around September 1st.
Ok, one last wishcasting post (not). ;P

18n,49w It's A L I V E still. Or either it's a zombie, albeit in a sea of dry air and southeast of the strong southwesterly TUTT shear. ;)



Quoting 1337. CybrTeddy:


Shear looks like it'll become quite favorable by the end of the forecast period. Besides, the focus won't be in the Caribbean, it'll be in the MDR.



That map is showing vary unfavorable winds
Gotta run....have fun about the WHAT IF'S....NO FIGHTING KIDS! Have fun!
Quoting 1341. SLU:


Prior to 2004, most seasons since 1995 followed this year's pattern with very little activity before August 25th and a very busy September and October. Most of our bloggers are from the post-2004 era which has featured some very unusually active early periods most notably 2005 and most persons use these anomalies as a judge to compare every other season. Hence, every year when we don't have cat 4's in the Gulf of Mexico in July making landfall on US coastlines will be judged as a bust by these persons.



I usually don't expect anything before the first - second week in Sept. This is always a very active period (as expected).
I teach science and I always track tropical storms/hurricanes with my students during the month of Sept. I've yet to have a year without storms to track during Sept.


Fine, the season is an unprecedented bust. We're not going to have any more named storms. Hurricanes? Forget about it. Can I go now? :)
Interesting little spot of convection blowing up too just east of Barbados.

Quoting 1349. CybrTeddy:
Fine, the season is an unprecedented bust. We're not going to have any more named storms. Hurricanes? Forget about it. Can I go now? :)

lol, you need to give a good speech first if you are going to leave.
You guys been posting wind shear maps mojo maps back in late July showing what could happen by augs 15th and look its augs 20ths and look noting has happen at all so all them maps you guys post am not trusting at all right now
1354. SLU
Quoting 1348. Sfloridacat5:


I usually don't expect anything before the first - second week in Sept. This is always a very active period (as expected).
I teach science and I always track tropical storms/hurricanes with my students during the month of Sept. I've yet to have a year without storms to track during Sept.




Even the least active season ever had its lone TC in September.

Radar jacked up, showing rain





Quoting 1354. SLU:


Even the least active season ever had its lone TC in September.


If we ever have that type of year again on this blog..well you know... Of course there were probably more storms that year just not reported because of lack of data.
Quoting 1314. hurricanes2018:
12/4/3 is my updated forecast.
15/8/4 My guess
Quoting 1351. sporteguy03:

lol, you need to give a good speech first if you are going to leave.


I've warn those out. First time that's ever happened.
Quoting 1352. Tazmanian:
You guys been posting wind shear maps mojo maps back in late July showing what could happen by augs 15th and look its augs 20ths and look noting has happen at all so all them maps you guys post am not trusting at all right now

Taz, weather and mother nature does not follow maps or models. They are just guidance. Many bloggers just report them as they are the best guidance as to what could happen. No different if the maps and MJO models showed nothing and yet we have plenty of activity. Besides I can see positives coming from this lack of activity including:
No threatening of oil rigs in the Gulf
Cruises are not cancelled
Vacations are not impacted by the tropics
1360. K8eCane
Quoting 1343. K8eCane:
I was just reading from dr masters about when he flew through Hugo.
These hurricane hunters need to be admired and respected for sure.


Dr Masters, if you ever see this comment, I want to tell you that you keep me on the edge of my seat each time I read this.
Great writing. I hope you write a lot
Quoting 1344. Chucktown:


You can have all the MJO you want, as long as this dry air remains in the MDR, it's still going to hinder development. Starting to think the Cape Verde season is going minimal at best. Also, we've only got about 2-3 weeks before the "wave train" starts to wind down. It peaks around September 1st.

I wonder what the effects of an upward pulse of the MJO are on an otherwise stable Atlantic...? *cough*
Quoting 1350. moonlightcowboy:
Interesting little spot of convection blowing up too just east of Barbados.



LOL, the season has been so quiet with anything developing getting sheared apart that we are grasping onto any bit of convection that survives past the onslaught of dry air in the central Atlantic! Not knocking you cowboy, just think it's funny how a lot of us are doing this! Sooner or later we'll get our storms and when we do some of us will be praying for dry air and shear as it nears our coastline!
My updated forecast is 12/6/3
The Tropical Atlantic is quiet. Too quiet.

It can only get worse... much worse. Really, it can't get any better, now can it? ;)
Quoting 1362. 69Viking:


LOL, the season has been so quiet with anything developing getting sheared apart that we are grasping onto any bit of convection that survives past the onslaught of dry air in the central Atlantic! Not knocking you cowboy, just think it's funny how a lot of us are doing this! Sooner or later we'll get our storms and when we do some of us will be praying for dry air and shear as it nears our coastline!


I think when a full fledged storm does develop most of us will be rubbing our eyes and pinching our selves. We are still technically above average in terms of number of named storms, but lacking in the hurricane department. 2nd of they year by average, as stated by Dr. master's, is on August 28th. Hard to say if we'll even have one at that point, looking more unlikely. We have had active seasons with late developing hurricanes before though, and most indications (MJO, weak La Nina/neutral) in the coming couple of weeks seems to point to a more active second half. Wouldn't be surprised to see an active September and October this year, but we'll see.
Quoting 1362. 69Viking:


LOL, the season has been so quiet with anything developing getting sheared apart that we are grasping onto any bit of convection that survives past the onslaught of dry air in the central Atlantic! Not knocking you cowboy, just think it's funny how a lot of us are doing this! Sooner or later we'll get our storms and when we do some of us will be praying for dry air and shear as it nears our coastline!


No worries, Viking. Agreed. I just remember the times when many of just sat for hours on end, and looked for any kind of swirl to get going. There is some spin there too. ;)
Downcasters are too funny... my forecast is 14 to 18 named storms.... I have my reasons.
1368. LargoFl

0











More Information

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.
ST. PETERSBURG --
The clear and pleasant conditions that greeted students returning to Bay area schools Tuesday morning will give way to hot, humid and stormy conditions later in the day.

According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Josh Linker, the summertime weather pattern will continue with afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

"The pattern of clear and quiet conditions early in the day during the summer will continue today," Linker said. "We will have some showers and thunderstorms move across the area this afternoon."

Morning temperatures in the upper 70s will rise to the lower 90s by this afternoon.

Rain chances will remain at 50 percent through Thursday.

Also, with 1.75 inches of rain Monday at Tampa International Airport, August has surpassed 10 inches of rain. With June and July also surpassing that total, it marked the first time since 1957 that three months in a row each had more than 10 inches of rainfall.
1369. StormWx
Quoting Rmadillo:
The Tropical Atlantic is quiet. Too quiet.

It can only get worse... much worse. Really, it can't get any better, now can it? ;)


It could get better. It could be cloudless, wave less, windless and spinless. I'd be more scared if it was like that.
Fun fact:

Out of the ECMWF operational, ECMWF ensembles, ECMWF EPS control, and the ECMWF Monthly forecasts...

The monthly is the only one that develops a tropical cyclone (as in just one) over the next 30 days.
Quoting 1367. reedzone:
Downcasters are too funny... my forecast is 14 to 18 named storms.... I have my reasons.


Can you explain? I enjoy hearing the perspectives of others.

Sometimes it sheds light on facets of tropical forecasting I am grossly unaware of.

TIA
Quoting 1353. GeoffreyWPB:


AOI near PR?
Quoting 1361. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder what the effects of an upward pulse of the MJO are on an otherwise stable Atlantic...? *cough*


I guess we'll see. I'm not saying it will change things or not. This is why I don't forecast numbers for the season. Does anyone really care if you are right or wrong? When a storm develops, then we can track it. If and when it threatens someone, then we will take action and forecast where it may go and who it will impact the most. As a side note, picked this off Ryan Maue's twitter feed.

Flhurricane‏@cfhc3h
It the past 50 years only 7 times has this week in August gone without a named storm: 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1997 and 2002.

Retweeted by Ryan Maue
Quoting 1372. Articuno:


AOI near PR?


Careful .. I got banned the other day for using acronymns that sent users to the Google rabbit-hole of nothingness. I thought they were legit.
Quoting 1344. Chucktown:


You can have all the MJO you want, as long as this dry air remains in the MDR, it's still going to hinder development. Starting to think the Cape Verde season is going minimal at best. Also, we've only got about 2-3 weeks before the "wave train" starts to wind down. It peaks around September 1st.


But doesn't a pulse of MJO increase instability, which in turn causes more thunderstorms to occur across the basin, which then helps to add more moisture into the atmosphere?
And before the MJO pulse arrives, the waves off of Africa will help moisten up the Atlantic further. I think we're in for an active September/October.
Quoting 1365. Stoopid1:


I think when a full fledged storm does develop most of us will be rubbing our eyes and pinching our selves. We are still technically above average in terms of number of named storms, but lacking in the hurricane department. 2nd of they year by average, as stated by Dr. master's, is on August 28th. Hard to say if we'll even have one at that point, looking more unlikely. We have had active seasons with late developing hurricanes before though, and most indications (MJO, weak La Nina/neutral) in the coming couple of weeks seems to point to a more active second half. Wouldn't be surprised to see an active September and October this year, but we'll see.


I agree and that is why my prediction is 16/8/4.
Quoting 1372. Articuno:


AOI near PR?

Nvm, shear's probably too high
Quoting 1373. Chucktown:


I guess we'll see. I'm not saying it will change things or not. This is why I don't forecast numbers for the season. Does anyone really care if you are right or wrong? When a storm develops, then we can track it. If and when it threatens someone, then we will take action and forecast where it may go and who it will impact the most. As a side note, picked this off Ryan Maue's twitter feed.

Flhurricane‏@cfhc3h
It the past 50 years only 7 times has this week in August gone without a named storm: 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1997 and 2002.

Retweeted by Ryan Maue


We had Erin earlier this week.
Do waves actually help "moisten the environment" for subsequent waves, or is that a myth we have all created and bought into?

It just doesn't seem like it actually happens that way. But I could be wrong, unless I'm not.
Quoting 1375. Envoirment:


But doesn't a pulse of MJO increase instability, which in turn causes more thunderstorms to occur across the basin, which then helps to add more moisture into the atmosphere?
And before the MJO pulse arrives, the waves off of Africa will help moisten up the Atlantic further. I think we're in for an active September/October.


I thought thats what Erin and 94L were supposed to do. Remember, these were as the blog called it, "sacrificial" and would pave the way for the rest of the waves to develop. There is still a lot dry air left and I'm not sure the MJO is going to change things a whole lot. Will be interesting to say the least as we head towards peak.
Quoting 1379. Rmadillo:
Do waves actually help "moisten the environment" for subsequent waves, or is that a myth we have all created and bought into?

It just doesn't seem like it actually happens that way. But I could be wrong, unless I'm not.

I have noticed that too
In 2010 where where was a pretty healthy wave train some storms like Gaston died b/c of dry air
1382. Cat5hit
Quoting 1374. Rmadillo:


Careful .. I got banned the other day for using acronymns that sent users to the Google rabbit-hole of nothingness. I thought they were legit.


ROFLMAO.
Quoting 1380. Chucktown:


I thought thats what Erin and 94L were supposed to do. Remember, these were as the blog called it, "sacrificial" and would pave the way for the rest of the waves to develop. There is still a lot dry air left and I'm not sure the MJO is going to change things a whole lot. Will be interesting to say the least as we head towards peak.


It did take a nice dent out of the SAL.
Good morning/afternoon everyone

Not a nice day, today or tomorrow, to be visiting the islands...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-210945-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
541 AM AST TUE AUG 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MOISTURE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOOD IN ISOLATED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD IN ISOLATED
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTS ARE WELCOME.

Lindy
Link

Tropical disturbance in the southern GOM...

Where is he getting his data?

Isn't this last week's news...published this morning...?
Quoting 1378. CybrTeddy:


We had Erin earlier this week.


Naa, Erin was downgraded to a depression at 11 PM Saturday, so technically we had no named storms as of midnight Sunday. Yea, we had TD Erin, but that was due to its previous classification as a tropical storm.

Link
1387. hydrus
Quoting 1379. Rmadillo:
Do waves actually help "moisten the environment" for subsequent waves, or is that a myth we have all created and bought into?

It just doesn't seem like it actually happens that way. But I could be wrong, unless I'm not.
Usually. There have been numerous reinforcing outbreaks of dry, Dusty air as these waves exit the region this year, prolonging the process of saturating the moisture field around and over the MDR. I do believe it is happening albeit slowly. Subsidence is playing a roll this year also. As of now, the MDR is certainly not conducive for development.
1388. Cat5hit
Quoting 1354. SLU:


Even the least active season ever had its lone TC in September.



And if course it had to hit Florida too.
1389. hydrus
Quoting 1350. moonlightcowboy:
Interesting little spot of convection blowing up too just east of Barbados.

Yep, and thats all it takes.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1392. will40
there is a new blog up
Quoting 1204. FtMyersgal:
Received 1.23" of rain in 45 minutes yesterday. It came down so hard I could not see the house across the street.



We got nailed here again in the Tampa Bay area yesterday, had another round of severe thunderstorms. The lightning here was insane! As usual visibility was near 0 due to torrential rain and violent down burst winds. I've seen tropical storm conditions from afternoon thunderstorms more times than I can count.

This is my favorite place and time of year for weather. There's nothing like watching it go from sunny skies much of the day, to powerful thunderstorms in minutes as sea breeze boundaries come together.
1394. LargoFl
Quoting 1393. Jedkins01:


We got nailed here again in the Tampa Bay area yesterday, had another round of severe thunderstorms. The lightning here was insane! As usual visibility was near 0 due to torrential rain and violent down burst winds. I've seen tropical storm conditions from afternoon thunderstorms more times than I can count.

This is my favorite place and time of year for weather. There's nothing like watching it go from sunny skies much of the day, to powerful thunderstorms in minutes as sea breeze boundaries come together.
oh yes it sure was BAD..all that heavy Booming and Lightning etc..no lie..it was like a war zone here by me