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African Wave 94L Has Potential to Develop; 92L Dead; Erin Dying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:22 PM GMT on August 18, 2013

It's time to turn our attention to the coast of Africa, where a new tropical wave (94L) has just emerged over the Tropical Atlantic. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are warm enough for development, 27.5°C. Satellite loops show that 94L has a modest amount of spin, but the storm's heavy thunderstorms are not very intense, and are poorly organized. The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that during the next five days, wind shear for 94L will be mostly in the moderate range, and ocean temperatures will slowly cool to 26.5°C. These conditions should allow for some slow development. As usual, dry air from the Saharan Air Layer will likely be an impediment to development, as the 11 am EDT Sunday SAL analysis showed a large pulse of dry air and dust exiting from the Sahara just to the north of 94L. The Sunday 06Z run of the GFS model and 00Z run of the ECMWF model did not calling for 94L to develop. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% of developing by Tuesday, and a 30% chance of developing by Friday.


Figure 1. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis from 11 am EDT Sunday August 18, 2013. A large pulse of dust and dry air was exiting the coast of Africa just north of tropical wave 94L. Note the swirl of dry air marking the center of Tropical Depression Erin, near 20°N 40°W. Image credit: University of Wisconsin/NOAA-HRD.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 92L dies
The tropical disturbance (92L) that was over the Gulf of Mexico the past few days has now degenerated into a trough of low pressure with little heavy thunderstorm activity, and is no longer a threat to develop. However, a flow of moist tropical air will take some of the remnants of 92L northwards over the Southeast U.S. over the next few days, bringing a swath of 3+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Sunday August 18, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin dying
Tropical Storm Erin over the Eastern Atlantic is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Dry air, moderate wind shear, and marginal water temperatures will likely destroy the storm by Monday, as predicted by all of the reliable global computer models and the NHC.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Guam has this


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP012013
200 PM CHST MON AUG 19 2013

...TROPICAL STORM PEWA (01C) MAINTAINING NORTHWEST HEADING...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.7N 178.0E

ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE...AND
ABOUT 2230 MILES EAST OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
Quoting 995. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep we will have to watch close to home for any signs of home brew development. The MDR is just not favorable for development at this point in time.




I think this guy sneaking across Cuba to the W may warrant suspicion.
Quoting 966. Astrometeor:


He has yet to break a rule. No reason to ban. Besides, he's pretty harmless. Just posts images with short comments followed by !!!. If you can't take it, just ignore him. I haven't.

Guess you haven't seen what he posted last week about 92L. He posted an off topic pic of an terrible accident that happened in Alabama combining it with 92L about how it looked when it was not doing well.
1007. Gearsts
Place is dead, that can only mean one thing.
1009. Gearsts
Expansive Ridge for September, will it hold or not?

Quoting 1010. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Expansive Ridge for September, will it hold or not?



No.
Nice shape definitely would have the look of a classic Cape-Verde hurricane.

End of the run Fernand and Gabrielle.

The proximity of Pewa continues to be a major problem for Unala and should be for the coming days. Strong southwesterly shear coming from the upper-level outflow of Pewa is shifting the heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast, keeping the center circulation partially exposed. Little change in strength is expected for the next several days.

Quoting 1014. GTstormChaserCaleb:
End of the run Fernand and Gabrielle.



You know it's bad when we're hanging our hopes on the 384 hr runs.

We still have a couple more days of quiet it seems, but hopefully things will start to ramp up.
Quoting 1008. SuperStorm093:
Place is dead, that can only mean one thing.


The middle of the night for most of the bloggers? Nah, that can't possibly be it Astro. It must mean that most of us have given up on the season. :-)
The irony it would be if a major hurricane is barreling towards the East Coast near Labor Day to buck the trend. There have been some notorious Labor Day storms in history.
Quoting 1016. Civicane49:
The proximity of Pewa continues to be a major problem for Unala and should be for the coming days. Strong southwesterly shear coming from the upper-level outflow of Pewa is shifting the heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast, keeping the center circulation partially exposed. Little change in strength is expected for the next several days.



BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp922013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308181839
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP922013
CP, 92, 2013081806, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1681W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 92, 2013081812, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1692W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 92, 2013081818, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1705W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 92, 2013081900, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1716W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 90, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 1016. Civicane49:
The proximity of Pewa continues to be a major problem for Unala and should be for the coming days. Strong southwesterly shear coming from the upper-level outflow of Pewa is shifting the heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast, keeping the center circulation partially exposed. Little change in strength is expected for the next several days.



Pewa's main body keeps on shrinking, lol. It needs to find a comfortable size and stick with it. Otherwise it's gonna poof! itself away.
Quoting 1020. Tazmanian:


BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_cp922013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308181839
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP922013
CP, 92, 2013081806, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1681W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 92, 2013081812, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1692W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 92, 2013081818, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1705W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
CP, 92, 2013081900, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1716W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 90, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Another CPAC invest I see.

The CPAC keeps popping up the storms.
Quoting 1011. KoritheMan:


No.


You absolutely-totally positive?
Quoting 1017. Astrometeor:


You know it's bad when we're hanging our hopes on the 384 hr runs.

We still have a couple more days of quiet it seems, but hopefully things will start to ramp up.
I'll make a proposition to you and anyone who sees this, there will be a major hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic after Labor Day. Save this comment and see if I am right when that time comes for me Astro. Edit. I forgot Labor Day falls a week early this year, it is usually the 2nd week of September. So disregard comment 1019. But my proposition still stands.
September and October will be really fun if the Euro is right with the MJO..
Mother Nature is handing out storms apparently.

Quoting 1025. stormchaser19:
September and October will be really fun if the Euro is right with the MJO..
Don't mean to sound all doomish, but someone is going to get hit hard this year, idk where but I sense it. Especially, if the pattern is similar to 1999 or 2004.
Quoting 1024. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll make a proposition to you and anyone who sees this, there will be a major hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic after Labor Day. Save this comment and see if I am right when that time comes for me Astro. Edit. I forgot Labor Day falls a week early this year, it is usually the 2nd week of September. So disregard comment 1019. But my proposition still stands.


I saved it. :)
Just so ya know, I'm not a downcaster (well, my joke of a forecast is) on the season, just poking at ya.
1, 2, 3...the train is coming.

384 HRS 18Z GFS Show what could be the first true Hurricane of this season. Bermuda and maybe even the East coast could be affected. Gomex, Caribbean not so much.
Quoting 1026. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mother Nature is handing out storms apparently.



Texas hasn't gotten one yet, I bet they feel left out to an extent.
Quoting 1027. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Don't mean to sound all doomish, but someone is going to get hit hard this year, idk where but I sense it. Especially, if the pattern is similar to 1999 or 2004.


You think this...



Is favorable for US landfalls?

Guess what? The pattern has flipped. Again. lol

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 16.2 171.6W — Movement: W

we have a new invest 92C THIS IS GETTING CRAZY
Quoting 1032. KoritheMan:


You think this...



Is favorable for US landfalls?

Guess what? The pattern has flipped. Again. lol

#741 is a good post to read.
Quoting 1026. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mother Nature is handing out storms apparently.



XD
Quoting 1028. Astrometeor:


I saved it. :)
Just so ya know, I'm not a downcaster (well, my joke of a forecast is) on the season, just poking at ya.
Oh I know that, we are all cool in here, the night crew is the best, shhh...don't let the day crew see this or they will get jealous. :P
we are going to have three storm coming together.
If the Atlantic was just like the CPAC, we'd have some people not sleeping on here blogging all day and night. :)
Quoting 1032. KoritheMan:


You think this...



Is favorable for US landfalls?

Guess what? The pattern has flipped. Again. lol


Well this was 2004, i still think northern caribbean islands and the east coast are in!!
Quoting 1034. TropicalAnalystwx13:

#741 is a good post to read.


Just did. Looks like a wait and see game.
Quoting 1039. SouthCentralTx:
If the Atlantic was just like the CPAC, we'd have some people not sleeping on here blogging all day and night. :)
If this were 2005 this comment would be on the next page already. ;)
Quoting 1042. GTstormChaserCaleb:
If this were 2005 this comment would be on the next page already. ;)


Yeah the blog is moving at a pace that even I can keep up with.
Quoting 1040. stormchaser19:


Well this was 2004, i still think northern caribbean islands and the east coast are in!!


I dunno man, I've gotta see it to believe it after the last few years.

From the standpoint of loss of life and property damage, it would be wonderful if the trough returned again this year.

But I'm getting a little weary of forecasting continuous fish storms.

As Peter always says, "We'll see".
Quoting 1044. KoritheMan:


I dunno man, I've gotta see it to believe it after the last few years.

From the standpoint of loss of life and property damage, it would be wonderful if the trough returned again this year.

But I'm getting a little weary of forecasting continuous fish storms.

As Peter always says, "We'll see".


in what city do you live??
1046. Gearsts
Quoting 1045. stormchaser19:


in what city do you live??


Prairieville, Louisiana. Near Baton Rouge.

Why?
Quoting 1032. KoritheMan:


You think this...



Is favorable for US landfalls?

Guess what? The pattern has flipped. Again. lol
No because the Ridge is stronger over the Azores and weaker over Bermuda, so that would favor recurves. Would a 986 mb. hurricane be able to break through the 1016 mb. isobar?
Quoting 1048. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No because the Ridge is stronger over the Azores and weaker over Bermuda, so that would favor recurves. Would a 986 mb. hurricane be able to break through the 1016 mb. isobar?


I'm pretty sure it would. Not positive, though.
Quoting 1047. KoritheMan:


Prairieville, Louisiana. Near Baton Rouge.

Why?


Not for nothing , just for know your probability, Louisiana is always in danger..You suffered the onslaught of Katrina i see.....
Quoting 1047. KoritheMan:


Prairieville, Louisiana. Near Baton Rouge.

Why?


yawn! I'm tired...oooh, how about a WU-blog sleepover at Kori's house? Muahaha.

Night everyone.
Quoting 1051. Astrometeor:


yawn! I'm tired...oooh, how about a WU-blog sleepover at Kori's house? Muahaha.

Night everyone.


I'm game!
Quoting 1051. Astrometeor:


yawn! I'm tired...oooh, how about a WU-blog sleepover at Kori's house? Muahaha.

Night everyone.
LOL

Night Astro. :)
I hate working nights. It's not to bad when I have something to do but I guess I'm an overachiever and I'm 2 days ahead now. My guys are busy, and they don't want my help lol. I'm not a tropical weather aficionado but I do enjoy reading what people have to say. The blog is slow so I don't have much to keep me occupied. I have searched the internet so much that I came to a sign that read "The End" earlier.
Great to be back from my 24-hour ban. I guess I've "learned my lesson". Lol.

Good time to take off from the blog since things are quiet. Looks like 94L is going to take several days to organize into a tropical cyclone, if ever.
Special advisory from the CPHC.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM UNALA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022013
700 PM HST SUN AUG 18 2013

...TROPICAL STORM UNALA APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 178.9W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
How cute an area of low pressure riding up the East Coast of FL.

1058. Dakster
I see not much is going on...

Is this the calm before the storm?
Quoting 1050. stormchaser19:


Not for nothing , just for know your probability, Louisiana is always in danger..You suffered the onslaught of Katrina i see.....


My area actually didn't get much from Katrina, since we were on the left side, with the center some distance from us. A brief 7 hour power outage due to a strong wind gust was all.
Quoting 1055. MississippiWx:
Great to be back from my 24-hour ban. I guess I've "learned my lesson". Lol.

Good time to take off from the blog since things are quiet. Looks like 94L is going to take several days to organize into a tropical cyclone, if ever.


Welcome back!!lol
Quoting 1058. Dakster:
I see not much is going on...

Is this the calm before the storm?
Yes
Quoting 1059. KoritheMan:


My area actually didn't get much from Katrina, since we were on the left side, with the center some distance from us. A brief 7 hour power outage due to a strong wind gust was all.
You guys got more from Gustav and Rita than Katrina I bet. Which was worst for you all Gustav or Rita?
1063. Dakster
Quoting 1055. MississippiWx:
Great to be back from my 24-hour ban. I guess I've "learned my lesson". Lol.

Good time to take off from the blog since things are quiet. Looks like 94L is going to take several days to organize into a tropical cyclone, if ever.


It remains to be seen whether you have learned your lesson or not. ;)

Anyways - enjoy the quiet Atlantic, while it lasts.
Quoting 1059. KoritheMan:


My area actually didn't get much from Katrina, since we were on the left side, with the center some distance from us. A brief 7 hour power outage due to a strong wind gust was all.


Gustav was the most recent to seriously affect the area. A Denham Springs (Watson) resident myself. Although Isaac did cause some people issues last year.
Quoting 1062. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You guys got more from Gustav and Rita than Katrina I bet. Which was worst for you all Gustav or Rita?


Gustav was. Easily.

Baton Rouge suffered the worst wind damage in recent memory, and quite possibly at or exceeding Betsy in 1965, which was our other most significant event.

Winds gusted to 92 mph that far inland.
Quoting 1064. HimacaneBrees:


Gustav was the most recent to seriously affect the area. A Denham Springs (Watson) resident myself. Although Isaac did cause some people issues last year.


Isaac was mostly a water issue.

Can't imagine the misery it would have caused if it had been a Category 3 or 4 trying unsuccessfully to bust that massive heat ridge over the midwest.

Gustav would have been a flea in comparison.
My rent house (in Central) partially flooded because of Gustav and had several trees down. Had people in that neighborhood with trees in their houses. At My home we lost a couple of trees and were without power for about a week.
Quoting 1063. Dakster:


It remains to be seen whether you have learned your lesson or not. ;)

Anyways - enjoy the quiet Atlantic, while it lasts.


I'm too old for new tricks. Lol.
Quoting 1057. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How cute an area of low pressure riding up the East Coast of FL.



Does this show a tropical storm over Florida?
1070. Dakster
Mainstream media is jumping all over the 5-day forecast percentage like white girls on NBA players.

Saw a new article they ignored the 3-day 0% chance and went straight to the 5-Day 10%... I was waiting for the its going to explode comment, but then realized I wasn't watching CNN.
Quoting 1066. KoritheMan:


Isaac was mostly a water issue.

Can't imagine the misery it would have caused if it had been a Category 3 or 4 trying unsuccessfully to bust that massive heat ridge over the midwest.

Gustav would have been a flea in comparison.


Exactly correct. I never even lost power during Isaac. Gustav was tough though.
on august 27 2013 here come the green


A lot of the GFS emsemble members in 18z run are developing the wave that is currently in Central Africa and is going to emerge in about 144 hours the tricky thing is that the GFS doesn't like, i will not be surprised if the GFS jump on this!!!
Best post of the day+++
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
If this were 2005 this comment would be on the next page already. ;)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED
EARLY TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN AUG 18 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM UNALA...LOCATED 1330 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE
KAUAI...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE KAUAI ARE MOVING WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED RECENTLY NEAR AN
APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME WEAKER IN THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT...
AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

$$

KINEL
Invest 92C up to 30%.
Fujiwhara Effect in action.

1081. sar2401
Quoting MississippiWx:
Great to be back from my 24-hour ban. I guess I've "learned my lesson". Lol.

Good time to take off from the blog since things are quiet. Looks like 94L is going to take several days to organize into a tropical cyclone, if ever.

Got you too, huh? Well, I learned my lesson. WU got the last 10 bucks out of me they're ever going to get. That should drive down NBC-Universal stock when the market opens today. :-)
Well on another note we only have 11 days until the start of the College Football Season! 13 Days until LSU kicks off! Gonna beat up on the Horny Toads of TCU at Cowboy Stadium....
Like Unala, 92C is being sheared.

1085. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
If this were 2005 this comment would be on the next page already. ;)

Actually, it probably wouldn't have. Go back and look at the archives from 2005 - they're available here. Even when the big hurricanes were about to make landfall, over 1,000 posts wasn't that common. 500-800 was more average. There were very few members, relatively speaking, back then.
the blog said "poof"
I am so excited for this active season? Where are the storms?
1088. sar2401
Quoting redwagon:




I think this guy sneaking across Cuba to the W may warrant suspicion.

Typical for this season. The "little guy" in Cuba has already keeled over in just the two hour period when that satellite view was posted. Actually, the entire Gulf is starting to dry out again. We had a whopping .32" in SE AL, where the flash floods were supposed to be, and we currently have nearly full moon and fog beginning to develop.
Quoting 1087. SuperStorm093:
I am so excited for this active season? Where are the storms?



Coming soon to an ocean near you
Quoting 1069. JustFlyingThru:


Does this show a tropical storm over Florida?
\If you believe the NAVGEM then I suppose it's possible, highly improbable as the wave that is supposed to spark that development isn't looking so hot right now. By the way it's looking a lot more like December out there than August with all these ULL's.

1091. sar2401
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
the blog said "poof"

Well, since there are no Atlantic storms,and the Pacific isn't all that impressive either, the only other thing to talk about is college football. Since the Tide will crush all the other SEC teams, including LSU, that looks like a done deal too. :-)
Quoting 1091. sar2401:

Well, since there are no Atlantic storms,and the Pacific isn't all that impressive either, the only other thing to talk about is college football. Since the Tide will crush all the other SEC teams, including LSU, that looks like a done deal too. :-)


Here we go lol! You're entitled to your own opinion, misguided as it may be. But LSU will roll the Tide this year. Bama got lucky in the final minute last year. Also I think Saban started the Manziel autograph rumors because he's scared of losing to A&M again lol..
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August.

Unless this changes, there's a legitimate reason to believe that CSU may have overestimated the amount of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE.
1094. sar2401
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Here we go lol! You're entitled to your own opinion, misguided as it may be. But LSU will roll the Tide this year. Bama got lucky in the final minute last year. Also I think Saban started the Manziel autograph rumors because he's scared of losing to A&M again lol..

Actually, I'm a Buckeyes fan, and we would have beat any team last season if we weren't on suspension. Since the Buckeyes only have one good team a decade, we're doomed until the glaciers have all melted.

Well, seems like the massive storm that was going to hit the Gulf Coast today kind of fizzled out, and I think that's what I'm going to doe as well. If y'all see me tomorrow, at least you'll know I didn't get banned again. :-)
Quoting 1092. HimacaneBrees:


Here we go lol! You're entitled to your own opinion, misguided as it may be. But LSU will roll the Tide this year. Bama got lucky in the final minute last year. Also I think Saban started the Manziel autograph rumors because he's scared of losing to A&M again lol..

Texas A&M will win the SEC this year. Book it
Quoting 1093. KoritheMan:
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August.

Unless this changes, there's a legitimate reason to believe that CSU may have overestimated the amount of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE.


Lol, I explained about the shear in my reasoning, now you think they overestimated, I have said that the past 2 weeks and you literally hated all over me. Makes no sense.
1097. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August.

Unless this changes, there's a legitimate reason to believe that CSU may have overestimated the amount of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE.

Kori, you can take a look at my guess over on the guessing blog. I believe I'm going to be closer to correct than any of the "pros".
Quoting 1093. KoritheMan:
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August.

Unless this changes, there's a legitimate reason to believe that CSU may have overestimated the amount of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE.

You're right...looks like mid-June, or October, out there.
Atleast people are finally agreeing with me on a below the numbers season especially hurricanes and MH.

I also explained the same reasoning that KORI just made when you guys asked me and you still made me look like an idiot.
Quoting 1093. KoritheMan:
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August.

Unless this changes, there's a legitimate reason to believe that CSU may have overestimated the amount of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE.
Despite all of that I still remain firm of my prediction for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. I believe September will be really active in the MDR and we will get a few Cape-Verde storms in the range of 3-5. The Caribbean will turn more favorable in October, especially around that secondary peak where we will see the 5 more storms. I for see the EPAC and CPAC turning dead around the 2nd-3rd week of August and till the end of their season. Which will increase the chances of the Atlantic basin staying active until the end of its season.
CP, 02, 2013081906, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1795W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 45, 1011, 100, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, UNALA, M,
1102. vis0
CREDIT: eumetsat's Meteosat 0 degree Visualised (~misspelled on site, in case you search4it) Products Cloud Analysis.

The presentation is post produced not a eumetsat public product, therefore eumetsat not responsible for misinterpreting colours. At the eumetsat site 3 colours are used. By using a transparency blend we get 6 colours, red being lowest clouds followed by orange, yellow, green, aqua?, blue the highest clouds.



Better quality (right click open in other tab so u don't leave Wxu) VID here, post only link as not embeddable w/o disturbing the wxu pg. (same site as the "x92L bwwb vis wv" on the last Dr. Masters blog. Here eumetsat's product shows cloud top heights. (right click open in other tab) Drk are lower cloud hts. blue, green,red & white (20k meters) highest tops.
The European starting to catch onto development with the wave behind 94L. Link
Quoting 1100. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Despite all of that I still remain firm of my prediction for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. I believe September will be really active in the MDR and we will get a few Cape-Verde storms in the range of 3-5. The Caribbean will turn more favorable in October, especially around that secondary peak where we will see the 5 more storms. I for see the EPAC and CPAC turning dead around the 2nd-3rd week of August and till the end of their season. Which will increase the chances of the Atlantic basin staying active until the end of its season.

Although there is a "secondary peak" in October, it has its clear limitations. In general, the Cape Verde wave train has closed for business by early October, and the Atlantic has become unfavorable, meaning the Caribbean and adjacent areas really are the only typical locations where TCs form during the late part of the season. Therefore, it's VERY hard to squeeze 5 storms out of a month where cyclogenesis space is at such a high premium. For comparison, 5 named storms formed in October 2005, and two of them were fluke anomalies that we'll likely never see again.
This will be taking us into September, but the GFS is gaining model support in the long range.

Guess KORI can't admit that he is now agreeing with my thinking.

I have said that the shear would tamper on formation for weeks now and you all have said week after week, trust me development will come.
Quoting 1105. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This will be taking us into September, but the GFS is gaining model support in the long range.



Also people laughed at me when I said the first hurricane would come in September.
Quoting 1105. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This will be taking us into September, but the GFS is gaining model support in the long range.


>300 hours
>trustworthy

choose ONE
Quoting 1104. UNThurricane2019:

Although there is a "secondary peak" in October, it has its clear limitations. In general, the Cape Verde wave train has closed for business by early October, and the Atlantic has become unfavorable, meaning the Caribbean and adjacent areas really are the only typical locations where TCs form during the late part of the season. Therefore, it's VERY hard to squeeze 5 storms out of a month where cyclogenesis space is at such a high premium. For comparison, 5 named storms formed in October 2005, and two of them were fluke anomalies that we'll likely never see again.
Sorry I meant to say 5 will form after the 3-5 Cape-Verde storms which is looking more and more likely to be a wave train or come in clusters, anywhere in the Caribbean, GOM, or off the East Coast, and we would still have November.
Quoting 1107. SuperStorm093:


Also people laughed at me when I said the first hurricane would come in September.
What happened to your prediction of not seeing a storm until after the 26th? I admit I was wrong with 92L in the GOM, and owned up to it, you seem to want to make this into a competition, so game on, but I have yet to see you admit to being wrong with Erin. You need to own up to being wrong as well and quit gloating about being right all the time. It is seriously getting annoying.
Quoting 1110. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What happened to your prediction of not seeing a storm until after the 26th? I admit I was wrong with 92L in the GOM, and owned up to it, you seem to want to make this into a competition, so game on, but I have yet to see you admit to being wrong with Erin. You need to own up to being wrong as well and quit gloating about being right all the time. It is seriously getting annoying.
I was wrong, I said the 20th-25th, even though seems like Erin was a wasted name and this isn't a competition, I just wanted to people to accept my forecast and now I feel better more people are coming to my forecast, even though I have been saying it for 2 weeks and they act like I didnt give one, and I listed the same reasons KORI just did.
Quoting 1109. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sorry I meant to say 5 will form after the 3-5 Cape-Verde storms which is looking more and more likely to be a wave train or come in clusters, anywhere in the Caribbean, GOM, or off the East Coast, and we would still have November.

November is exclusively limited to the Caribbean, except for the ever-so-occasional weak subtropical entity way out in the middle of nowhere. By November, the troughs start to get really strong and flagitious, meaning that anything that develops in the Caribbean is pretty much always forced ENE away from the US and the Gulf.
Quoting 1111. SuperStorm093:
I was wrong, I said the 20th-25th, even though seems like Erin was a wasted name and this isn't a competition, I just wanted to people to accept my forecast and now I feel better more people are coming to my forecast, even though I have been saying it for 2 weeks and they act like I didnt give one, and I listed the same reasons KORI just did.

Yes, Erin was probably a wasted name. Especially since the NHC forecasted dissipation from the very first advisory.

Face the music guys... it looks like the downcasters are going to win this year. You'll have your shot next year, provided El Nino doesn't kick in, ;) .
Eye feature no longer apparent but retains a small CDO.

CP, 92, 2013081906, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1724W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 90, 45, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 1112. UNThurricane2019:

November is exclusively limited to the Caribbean, except for the ever-so-occasional weak subtropical entity way out in the middle of nowhere. By November, the troughs start to get really strong and flagitious, meaning that anything that develops in the Caribbean is pretty much always forced ENE away from the US and the Gulf.
All I am saying is we still have a ways to go before this season is finish, we already have 5 named storms, and it's not out of the realm of possibility to see 5 storms between now and the end of September and 5 more from October to November. September will be the month to determine whether the numbers issued by the various forecasting agencies verifies or bust. Regardless and worth repeating it only takes one storm as evident in 1992 to make it a costly and memorable season. That is why I am worried that we are in this lull and that something bad is going to happen, hopefully my instincts are wrong.
Quoting 1108. UNThurricane2019:

>300 hours
>trustworthy

choose ONE
When there is model support, yes, but most importantly you now look for consistency which is being shown. Remember the FIM was showing development out of 92L back at the beginning of the month and even though we didn't get a name out of it, we still got an invest or an area that had a high chance of developing, but 92L had other ideas. Long range models are improving as we advance in technology and gaining more accuracy, however I still wouldn't put stock into it, especially if I was looking at specifics as to the storm being in the exact spot 384 hrs. from now, no I look at the pattern both steering and atmospheric which shows me a conducive pattern for development.
Quoting 1113. UNThurricane2019:

Yes, Erin was probably a wasted name. Especially since the NHC forecasted dissipation from the very first advisory.

Face the music guys... it looks like the downcasters are going to win this year. You'll have your shot next year, provided El Nino doesn't kick in, ;) .
Don't count your chickens before they hatch, we'll see who wins at the end of the year, since it seems as though we are trying to make this into a competition.
It's been a busy August for the central Pacific.

A season can only be judged if it was a bust or if it was active or hyper-active once the season is over, to call it now is a waste of blog space and some-what troll-ish behaviour.

Let see what the next 3 1/2 month produce before we can make any call.

I will be busy doing my IT Diploma course which I started today. I will be here but only after I have done my allotted course hours.
Quoting 1093. KoritheMan:
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August.

Unless this changes, there's a legitimate reason to believe that CSU may have overestimated the amount of hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE.





It may be that the Caribbean shuts down this year until late September or early October. It happened in 2010, a year with a pattern very similar to this.
Well darn, looks like I may have been wrong:



Just recently made the transition though; like less than a week. Now to see if it lasts.
Unala is definitely not going to last long.

Quoting 1120. AussieStorm:
A season can only be judged if it was a bust or if it was active or hyper-active once the season is over, to call it now is a waste of blog space and some-what troll-ish behaviour.

Let see what the next 3 1/2 month produce before we can make any call.

I will be busy doing my IT Diploma course which I started today. I will be here but only after I have done my allotted course hours.


Good luck on your edumutation AussieStorm!

Quoting 1124. Civicane49:
Sakurajima Volcano Erupts in Japan: Largest Eruption in Decades Sends Ash Plume Thousands of Feet High



Darn, Japan is beginning to sound like an uninhabitable place, certainly less desirable with earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear emergency, volcanoes, heatwave, floods, landslides, etc. And, if extremely quick measure aren't taken with Fukushima, many more may be at risk. Sad situation there it seems.
1128. emguy
Quoting 1119. Civicane49:
It's been a busy August for the central Pacific.



Which has been inteeresting...It's not an el nino year, but el nino years typically tend to be the more active seasons in the central pacific. It's uncertain to me that atmospheric instability and shear will completely filter out in the Atlantic. Despite the lack of el nino...there are sililarities going on. I bet we get a lot of weak named systems in the atlantic...some hurricanes...1-2 majors. In general...el nino or not...dry stable air remains a multi year problem in the Atlantic last few years. My 2 cents.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM UNALA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022013
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 18 2013

...TROPICAL STORM UNALA CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 179.6E
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Civi, any idea why the CPHC's website is always so slow on data transmission? The latest forecast discussion for Unala is not appearing on their website for now, but I can access it at Weather Underground.

Any idea what's going on?
Quoting 1130. KoritheMan:
Civi, any idea why the CPHC's website is always so slow on data transmission? The latest forecast discussion for Unala is not appearing on their website for now, but I can access it at Weather Underground.

Any idea what's going on?


I'm not really sure why the CPHC's page is always slow on data transmission. But, some of these information are released in other sites, such as this, before they are released in the CPHC's website. The website is probably having unknown issues that is yet to be found or fixed.
There we go.

TROPICAL STORM UNALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022013
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 18 2013

UNALA HAD A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR ITS
NORTHERN QUADRANT...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE DYING AT BULLETIN TIME.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AT THIS HOUR AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
RAPIDLY WESTWARD UNDER THE HOSTILE OUTFLOW FROM RECENTLY UPGRADED
TYPHOON PEWA...CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 177.9E AT 19/0600Z ACCORDING TO
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER /JTWC/. THE INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS OBVIOUSLY TAKING A TOLL ON UNALA...SINCE ALL OF THE
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES INDICATED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ONLY 2.0.
HOWEVER...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CENTER IS LIKELY MAINTAINING WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 KT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM
EARLIER TODAY SHOWED THIS TYPE OF WIND FIELD...SO WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN UNALA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THE INITIAL
PERIOD IN THIS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FOR UNALA IS
ALL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT
19/0500Z. IN COORDINATION WITH THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT
JTWC...IT WAS DECIDED THAT A FUJIWARA INTERACTION BETWEEN TYPHOON
PEWA AND UNALA WILL LIKELY STEER UNALA MORE WESTWARD AT AN
ACCELERATED SPEED. ALSO...IN COORDINATION WITH JTWC...WE
ANTICIPATED THE INTERACTION BETWEEN UNALA AND THE DOMINANT OUTFLOW
FROM PEWA SHOULD CAUSE UNALA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

PEWA HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE AS OF THIS
BULLETIN TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE
ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN
GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 17.5N 179.6E 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 17.7N 177.1E 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Quoting 1127. moonlightcowboy:



Darn, Japan is beginning to sound like an uninhabitable place, certainly less desirable with earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear emergency, volcanoes, heatwave, floods, landslides, etc. And, if extremely quick measure aren't taken with Fukushima, many more may be at risk. Sad situation there it seems.


Unfortunately, Japan is one of the most affected countries by natural disasters. However, people in Japan are working hard to alleviate the problems and prevent further loss of life. Japan is a safe country and is well-equipped to deal with natural disasters.
Quoting 1133. Civicane49:
Unfortunately, Japan is one of the most affected countries by natural disasters. However, people in Japan are working hard to alleviate the problems and prevent further loss of life. Japan is a safe country and is well-equipped to deal with natural disasters.
Natural disasters? Perhaps. But it's the man-made ones with which they seem to be struggling...
1135. ackee
One thing of note is that I don't see any evidence of the TUTT feature that's been plaguing the Caribbean with so much shear weakening, despite how much the GFS keeps wanting to say it will. There's been a small improvement, but overall there's still 20 to 40 kt of westerly shear blowing through the Caribbean, which is atypical of August Quoting 1130. KoritheMan

I agree with your post 100 percent people are should do there own observation on the tropics and not think the GFS or the expert prediction on the seasons is written in stone shear have been forecast to weaken in Caribbean it has not happen in fact shear really has increase its almost AUG 20 the atlantic base should have at least be seeing more robust wave this has not happen DIR air have rule this year and I think it will put a Cap on this seasons shear as well I see rest of the seasons being average or below average
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A very nice 70 degrees here with a feels like temp of 69. It's been a while since it felt cooler and not much hotter.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CW's if she's been in already: Steak and eggs, biscuits and country sausage gravy, Low Fat Shrimp and Swiss Omelet made with egg whites, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, sausage links,
cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
G.m. hot coffee all ready to sart the day
1138. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee Is Perked............
things finnally calmed down i see. What a difference a weekend makes.
Happy first day back to school for Miami and Fort Lauderdale kids!!
Welcome back!





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED
EARLY TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
1141. LargoFl
we around me we finally had some good rain last night..the good kind that soaks into the ground not runoff..everything is soaking wet outside..nice.
cant complain beginning of the heart of cv season and all we have is a sleeping ex/erin.. what worries my character is the stored up energy . its abundant.
1143. LargoFl
1144. Gearsts
1145. Gearsts
Quoting 1119. Civicane49:
It's been a busy August for the central Pacific.

This might be the busiest month on record for the cphc.
1147. Gearsts
1148. Gearsts
Quoting 1148. Gearsts:


Good morning. Is the first time I see GFS develop closer to islands.
1150. IKE
Peacefulness in the ATL......still no canes in sight......


1151. Gearsts
Quoting 1149. Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning. Is the first time I see GFS develop closer to islands.
Good morning and yes that's true.
Quoting 1148. Gearsts:


that would be cool
Quoting 1146. allancalderini:
This might be the busiest month on record for the cphc.


2009 had six tropical cyclones in the central Pacific during August.
Quoting 1151. Gearsts:
Good morning and yes that's true.
Maybe Central America or its already moving north?
Quoting 1153. Civicane49:


2009 had six tropical cyclones in the central Pacific during August.
No I mean the ones that form in there,right now you have two if the other one develops would it be a record if they were three?
Quoting 1150. IKE:
Peacefulness in the ATL......still no canes in sight......




global warming has caused a general increase in upperlevel winds hindering develoment
Quoting 1155. allancalderini:
No I mean the ones that form in there,right now you have two if the other one develops would it be a record if they were three?


Sorry, Allan. I think I'm not functioning right now this late at night, lol.

So good night.
Quoting 1157. Civicane49:


Sorry, Allan. I think I'm not functioning right now this late at night, lol.

So good night.
Lol don`t worry.
Did I just see someone say global warming is causing no hurricanes now....lol....which one is it? cant have it both ways....looks like a few quiet days before this blog has some action to watch....hoping for lots and lots of fish!!!! :)
NHC > 94L > This system has a low
chance...near 0 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours...and a low chance...10 percent...of becoming atropical cyclone during the next 5 days.
no hurricanes or tropical storm for the next 10 days
In recent years there was a decrease in hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The climat is changing. Siberia is sunked in heat, Alaska the same, in US is cold, western Europe cold.
I believe that in the near future hurricanes will be a very rarely appearence in Atlantic.
Quoting 1160. DelawareJack:
NHC > 94L > This system has a low
chance...near 0 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours...and a low chance...10 percent...of becoming atropical cyclone during the next 5 days.

1164. beell
Quoting 1123. KoritheMan:
Well darn, looks like I may have been wrong:



Just recently made the transition though;
like less than a week. Now to see if it lasts.



Maybe more so the orientation of the TUTT. Not rare, but more E/W this year. Above 20N. Instead of a TUTT base in the eastern Caribbean-oriented SW/NE. Not backing in to the GOM.
Quoting 1162. matara28:
In recent years there was a decrease in hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The climat is changing. Siberia is sunked in heat, Alaska the same, in US is cold, western Europe cold.
I believe that in the near future hurricanes will be a very rarely appearence in Atlantic.

Oh my!! Dude way too early in the morning for that. Please put that down or else pass it around so I can put it out.
Quoting 1165. 954FtLCane:

Oh my!! Dude way too early in the morning for that. Please put that down or else pass it around so I can out it out.


Heh heh, I liked "Siberia is sunked".

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N26W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 14N27W
TO 20N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD 700 MB TROUGH S OF 17N BETWEEN 15W-32W AND IS LOCATED
WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FROM 07N-20N BETWEEN 20W-
37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.
1168. beell
Quoting 1164. beell:



Maybe more so the orientation of the TUTT. Not rare, but more E/W this year. Above 20N. Instead of a TUTT base in the eastern Caribbean-oriented SW/NE. Not backing in to the GOM.


And maybe not. Just a lot of ill-timed TUTT lows.
•Atlantic wind shear going up!!
No more 94L for now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
The capital city of the Philippines, Manila, has been flooded by monsoon rains caused by Tropical Storm Trami (known locally as Maring). 5000 people have been evacuated from Metro Manila, where water levels have reached knee height in some areas. At least three people have been reported killed so far and several are missing.
The Philippines were still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Utor (locally Labuyo) which passed over the Philippines last week. Though the nation is regularly victim to storms, this has been reported as the worst this year. The weather bureau declared a red alert for the situation on 18 August until downgrading it to yellow on the morning of 19 August as the rains lessened from heavy to moderate.
Offices and schools have been shut down in the city centre and local water reservoirs have reached their limits, leading to the some of the floodgates being opened to avoid uncontrolled flooding.
Close to Manila, flooding reached as high as waist, and even neck, deep in some areas of Cavite.
A state of calamity has been declared in the province of Manila and it is forecast that the storm will continue until 21 August, bringing further rain and potential landslides.


South of Manila. Kawit, Cavite. Residents say this is the worst flooding they’ve seen.


Manila: Flood at Taft Avenue corner Finance Road half tire deep, not passable to light vehicles.


Roads outside Manila City Hall still flooded, not passable to light vehicles
wind shear going up!!
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942013.ren

Oh, well...
1175. K8eCane
Quoting 1166. SunriseSteeda:


Heh heh, I liked "Siberia is sunked".




"stop laughing Kelso" lol

good morning everybody. might actually get to mow today
1176. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Rain has stopped since Sunday afternoon for me here..
A total of 5.05" since Friday evening..
79 degrees (which was the high yesterday) now with 88%rh and dew at 75..
Partly cloudy with winds 9mph from SSE..

Beach looking ok..
Surf is a bit rough..
Wind is a bit stronger too..

1177. IKE
LOL!!!!!!!!!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Good luck on your edumutation AussieStorm!



Thanks, I'll need it.

More photo's from around Manila, Philippines.


Flooding in Kawit, Cavite. Noveleta and Rosario also underwater.


Centennial Road, Cavite. Flooded towns of Rosario and Noveleta practically isolated for now.


BREAKING NEWS: Flashflood sa SLEX- Southwoods.


flooded South Super Highway -Buendia before Skyway
Good morning from soggy NW Florida. I forgot to check the gauge this morning for an exact figure but I'm guessing we picked up 6-7 inches of rain this weekend. The forecast says we might dry out for a bit, sure hope so. It's hard to believe it's Aug. 19 and the tropics are this quiet.
Quoting 1173. hurricanes2018:
wind shear going up!!
And wind shear is again increasing in the Ecaribbean.
Bye to 94L! Are we on August 19 or on June 19?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308191132
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
1182. IKE
WARNING....Season is a bust crowd will be out in full force today.

94L didn't even make it past the Cape Verde Islands and it was deactivated. Not sure I have ever seen that.
1183. mrmombq
Quoting 1182. IKE:
WARNING....Season is a bust crowd will be out in full force today.

94L didn't even make it past the Cape Verde Islands and it was deactivated. Not sure I have ever seen that.
I don't believe the season is a bust but have we ever gone into September with zero hurricanes before? Also when the Pacific is active dose that usual mean the Atlantic is quiet? If anyone knows.
Quoting 1182. IKE:
WARNING....Season is a bust crowd will be out in full force today.

94L didn't even make it past the Cape Verde Islands and it was deactivated. Not sure I have ever seen that.


LOL, you're probably right about that! We all know it can change quickly but it sure is quiet in the Atlantic right now.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942013.ren

An ode to 94....
I miss 94L so. We had grown so much together for those 42 hours. I remember the smile on my face when I first found out about our new friend. The few hours where I wondered if the clouds were still there oh and the happiness on my face when the NHC went upto 20%.
I will miss you so 94L.... (light piano music playing in the back round throughout)


nothing
00 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.


BUST



I hate 2013
morning
another tranquil day in the tropics. by the look of things that pattern seems will be the pattern for the next few days. if this trend continues then the September forecast will see a decline in the number of storms for the remainder of the season, which will put it as an average season. It only goes to show that with most of the predictors in place for an active season does not necessarily means it will happen there are other factors that can preclude this from happening. .
SAL analysis showed a large pulse of dry air and lot more SAL for the next two weeks!
1190. pcola57
Quoting 1179. 69Viking:
Good morning from soggy NW Florida. I forgot to check the gauge this morning for an exact figure but I'm guessing we picked up 6-7 inches of rain this weekend. The forecast says we might dry out for a bit, sure hope so. It's hard to believe it's Aug. 19 and the tropics are this quiet.


Morning 69Viking..
Looking ok here this am..
I see you recieved a bit more rain than I..
Had to dump the pool twice..
But all in all not too bad here..
Thank Goodness..
I'll take it rather than a T/C any day.. :)
Looks like Panama City getting surrounded again..
Hope all is well your way.. :)

Quoting 1182. IKE:
WARNING....Season is a bust crowd will be out in full force today.

94L didn't even make it past the Cape Verde Islands and it was deactivated. Not sure I have ever seen that.


Years ago they probably would not have named 94L an invest until it passed Cape Verde islands.
One more thing before I go.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. TROPICAL STORM UNALA HAS MOVED WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE...AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 850
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. UNALA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON UNALA...SEE BULLETINS
ISSUED BY THE REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER IN TOKYO JAPAN. FOR
U.S. INTERESTS...SEE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ABOUT 970 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...HAWAII ARE MOVING WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
CONCENTRATED NEAR AN APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT WEAKER OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT...
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS AREA TODAY AS IT AT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ALOFT MAY WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.


$$

HOUSTON
1193. pcola57
African Continent still gonna crank out Disturbed Weather no matter what the models or NHC says..
NHC are the experts and I digress to them..
But Lows aren't gonna just stop coming because of words I'm afraid..

1194. IKE

Quoting mrmombq:
I don't believe the season is a bust but have we ever gone into September with zero hurricanes before? Also when the Pacific is active dose that usual mean the Atlantic is quiet? If anyone knows.
A lot of times that is true.
it is true that we are only half way into the season but the atmosphere has been so dry and stable, that all we hear is for the MJO to come to this part of the world where we will upward motion and the start of what was forecast to be an active season.
Quoting 1168. beell:


And maybe not. Just a lot of ill-timed TUTT lows.


Wouldn't that be a matter of perspective?

Thanks for the coffee, and the breakfast!

G'morning from Cen OK. Temps in the upper 60's here, and the mid-80's later. Fantastic.

Hope all is well, and don't butcher one another because there's nothing else to focus any attention on in the ATL.

Will catch you all later.
Looking like an active end to the month going into September BUT the GFS has shown this in past and hasn't materialized thus far. It is almost as if the Atlantic is resembling that of an El-nino pattern eventhough we are in nuetral ENSO.



However IF storms can get going the SE US is a bad situation in regards to potential tracks IF storms develope.
So boring so disappointing...
1.30" of rain at my location this weekend however much more than that fell south and west of me with Disney picking up 6.57" of rain and Pierson up in NW Volusia County picking up 9.80" of rain.
Don't believe the GFS at 384h. Don't even believe it at 48H!!! The Leewards and NE Carib WERE SUPPOSED TO BE WET TODAY!!! Bust everywhere, what a shame!
I just wanted to take this moment to Thank 92L for changing my pool temperature from 85 to 70 degrees. :p

I am really sick and tired of how this season has evolved so far. Besides the two storms in June, the other systems have all missed forecasts and faded away quickly. As many people on this forum, I enjoy tracking hurricanes, but one needs to admit that this season has been quite a disappointment so far. Yes we've had 5 systems, however, zero hurricanes. We're approaching the end of August now, with no storm in sight for the next few days. I'm confident that we'll see at least one more storm before the end of August, still, there is no La Niña event in place and therefore we can't expect extreme activity during the remainder of the season. Yes, it's too early to tell whether this season will be above average, near normal, or a bust but it can't be denied that the likelyhood of an above-average season is rapidly decreasing now. My guess is that we'll end up with something like 14-6-2.
One thing to note which I am sure will not be discussed on this warm biased blog is the record cold temperatures that occured this past weekend across much of the SE US (excluding FL). Some highs never made it out of the 50's in August. I don't think I have EVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August.
1204. SLU
Just before the "season is a bust" brigade comes out in full force this morning, just remember that we are still 2 storms ahead of 2010 on this very date. Also on September 1st 2010, we only had 6 named storms.

The GFS still thinks we will get about 2 - 3 new storms this month which will still put us ahead of 2010 and in the midst of a strong MJO pulse by late-August into September.





1205. pcola57
Quoting 1201. RapidInsanity:
I just wanted to take this moment to Thank 92L for changing my pool temperature from 85 to 70 degrees. :p



LOL..
Mine too.. :)
Swim Party was a no go..
Thats ok..
There will be other days..
maybe we really don't need an active season. AS the most of the disaster agencies say YOU ONLY NEED ONE
It doesn't matter if we have 6 or 26 storms, all it takes is one. I for one hope people don't let this lull cause them to let their guard down. We have a long way to go till the end of the peak part of the season, let alne till the end of it completely. It is still looking like a few hurricanes are going to hit somewhere along our coasts a couple of majors will cause deat if people do not stay vigilant. Don't forget akso that if we had a couple of majors hit our shorelines, it would probably send our economy into a deeper tailspin.
Quoting 1206. stoormfury:
maybe we really don't need an active season. AS the most of the disaster agencies say YOU ONLY NEED ONE


Read my mind
1209. pcola57
Quoting 1203. StormTrackerScott:
One thing to note which I am sure will not be discussed on this warm biased blog is the record cold temperatures that occured this past weekend across much of the SE US (excluding FL). Some highs never made it out of the 50's in August. I don't think I have EVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August.


We average 92 degrees here normally and it never rose above 79 this weekend..
Today forecast of 84..
Plenty of anomaly weather around..
(Looks to China at the severe heat they endured lately)
I think normally stable weather is not stable anymore.. :)

Edited for clarity..I think.. :)
Good morning, LOL at the mood in here this morning, some would call it a knee-jerk reaction.

MJO Forecast still looks like upward motion comes by the end of the month and will persist through the climatilogical peak.





Last nights 00z model runs:

2 systems showing up on the FIM



2 systems showing up on the GFS



And the Euro shows a system at the end of its run

Link

Remember it only takes one, regardless of the total numbers at the end of the season.
1211. StormWx
With SAL high, it will be tough to get any wave going coming off Africa. September and October will have to be busy months for us to get an above average season.
Here are some of the flooding pics up in Flagler & Volusia County as 8" to 12" of rain fell Saturday morning in just a 3 hour span.





1213. VR46L
Quoting 1203. StormTrackerScott:
One thing to note which I am sure will not be discussed on this warm biased blog is the record cold temperatures that occured this past weekend across much of the SE US (excluding FL). Some highs never made it out of the 50's in August. I don't think I have EVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August.


You are gonna wake them up early....
1214. pcola57
Lots of dry air over the conus mid section..
A few slots in the Atlantic above 12N..
Actually moisture not too bad..
A fish storm to watch and plot would be ok though..

Quoting 1211. StormWx:
With SAL high, it will be tough to get any wave going coming off Africa. September and October will have to be busy months for us to get an above average season.


GFS keeps showing systems in the long range only to never pan out because of the variables you mentioned.
1216. VR46L
Dust forecast From TAU



Quoting 1206. stoormfury:
maybe we really don't need an active season. AS the most of the disaster agencies say YOU ONLY NEED ONE


That's not the point of wishing for an active season. Although the destructive potential of hurricanes is fascinating, I'm really not hoping for any majors landfalls. It might be cynical to wish for an active season when a high number of storms directly correlates with destruction, however, we are all fascinated by those natural beauties and enjoy tracking them, especially if the stay out to the sea and don't harm anyone.
1218. SLU
This is a post by wxgeek723 from yesterday.

Quoting 212. wxgeek723:
For comparison:
Date of first hurricane.

Bold indicates later than today's date

2012: June 21
2011: August 22
2010: June 29
2009: August 17
2008: July 7
2007: August 16
2006: August 27
2005: July 5
2004: August 3
2003: July 10
2002: September 11
2001: September 9

2000: August 6
1999: August 20
1998: August 22

1997: July 12
1996: July 7
1995: June 4
1994: August 18
1993: August 26
1992: August 22

1991: August 17
1990: July 29
1989: August 1
1988: September 2
1987: August 22
1986: June 25
1985: July 24
1984: September 11
1983: August 17
1982: June 4
1981: August 21
1980: August 3
1219. pcola57
Quoting 1216. VR46L:
Dust forecast From TAU





Morning VR..
Thats a pretty thick Dry air Wave for sure..
Here's my two cents. It is way too early too call this a bust season, yes so far no hurricanes to track or gain info from, still five named systems. I do not think the last two weeks of August or the month of Sept. will be quiet they rarely are. I expect November may be a busier than usual month given the changing of patterns across the globe. I do not make predictions just read and separate the opinions from the facts. Be patient there are four more months.
Quoting 1190. pcola57:


Morning 69Viking..
Looking ok here this am..
I see you recieved a bit more rain than I..
Had to dump the pool twice..
But all in all not too bad here..
Thank Goodness..
I'll take it rather than a T/C any day.. :)
Looks like Panama City getting surrounded again..
Hope all is well your way.. :)



It's nice to see the radar clear in our area for a change, we'll have to wait and see what happens this afternoon though. The rain started for me on Friday and rained all day Saturday. It was off and on yesterday. Glad to hear all is good your way. The last thing we need is a tropical system that's for sure!
1222. VR46L
Quoting 1219. pcola57:


Morning VR..
Thats a pretty thick Dry air Wave for sure..


I forgot my manners Good morning folks !

It sure is gonna be hard for anything to get going in the interim ...
Well like I said last night in this period of lull in activity we would need to look closer to home: Western Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM for development of any kind.



Quoting 1159. watchingnva:
Did I just see someone say global warming is causing no hurricanes now....lol....which one is it? cant have it both ways....looks like a few quiet days before this blog has some action to watch....hoping for lots and lots of fish!!!! :)
I keep wondering why pple keep coming out and saying stuff like this... There's been such a range of possibilities suggested as the potential impact of GW on TCs that I can't see how you could legitimately pick any one. However, it's been a while since scientists in the field have proposed more hurricanes, IIRC... seems the most recent trend has been towards fewer hurricanes overall, but stronger ones when they do form.

I still don't feel confident that we have a full understanding of how macro patterns in climatology affect individual seasonal patterns, so I'm not surprised by the uncertainty.
Quoting 1213. VR46L:


You are gonna wake them up early....


Hey, we're already awake! ;)
Just chillin' out in these wonderful weather. Windows open, and sipping the coffee.
Quoting 1203. StormTrackerScott:
One thing to note which I am sure will not be discussed on this warm biased blog is the record cold temperatures that occured this past weekend across much of the SE US (excluding FL). Some highs never made it out of the 50's in August. I don't think I have EVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August.
While you personally may have "NEVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August", meteorologists have; while all the data are not yet in, it doesn't appear that a single all-time August monthly low temperature record was set or tied across the US South over the past week. It was unusually chilly, to be sure--but hardly anything unprecedented along the lines of the late-June heat event across the US Southwest, or the just-now-winding down heat wave in China.

Remember: it's not the blog that's warm-biased; it's the climate.

But, hey, at least the US is heating back up, right?

hot
1227. LargoFl
1228. VR46L
Quoting 1221. 69Viking:


It's nice to see the radar clear in our area for a change, we'll have to wait and see what happens this afternoon though. The rain started for me on Friday and rained all day Saturday. It was off and on yesterday. Glad to hear all is good your way. The last thing we need is a tropical system that's for sure!


Looks like you might get a break today ... looks like the rain is now going to go where it is wanted ...

1229. pcola57
Quoting 1223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well like I said last night in this period of lull in activity we would need to look closer to home: Western Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM for development of any kind.





Morning GT..
Hey don't forget the Pacific !!
Those clockwise storms are very cool too..
Just no disasters and death please.. :)
Quoting 1212. StormTrackerScott:
Here are some of the flooding pics up in Flagler & Volusia County as 8" to 12" of rain fell Saturday morning in just a 3 hour span.







Wow that is a lot of rain. I grew up close to that area in the town of Deland.
I say this every day we don't have a name storm the harder its going too get too get too the 19 names storm mark


I think think 12 name storms this year
1232. ncstorm
Quoting 1223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well like I said last night in this period of lull in activity we would need to look closer to home: Western Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM for development of any kind.





CMC ensembles still seeing the wave tracked through the bahamas and possible development off the Florida east coast and heading north as the Navgem









Quoting 1209. pcola57:


We average 92 degrees here normally and it never rose above 79 this weekend..
Today forecast of 84..
Plenty of anomaly weather around..
(Looks to China at the severe heat they endured lately)
I think normally stable weather is not stable anymore.. :)

Edited for clarity..I think.. :)


Saturday we never got above 77! We did manage to get into the low 80's yesterday in between storms when we actually saw the sun shine through. Our average high is 89 right now but I don't see a forecast high that warm in the next 10 days. Still a wet forecast for us. Our average low is 71 and we've been right around average as far as our lows go.
Quoting 1218. SLU:
This is a post by wxgeek723 from yesterday.

Quoting 212. wxgeek723:
For comparison:
Date of first hurricane.

Bold indicates later than today's date

2012: June 21
2011: August 22
2010: June 29
2009: August 17
2008: July 7
2007: August 16
2006: August 27
2005: July 5
2004: August 3
2003: July 10
2002: September 11
2001: September 9

2000: August 6
1999: August 20
1998: August 22

1997: July 12
1996: July 7
1995: June 4
1994: August 18
1993: August 26
1992: August 22

1991: August 17
1990: July 29
1989: August 1
1988: September 2
1987: August 22
1986: June 25
1985: July 24
1984: September 11
1983: August 17
1982: June 4
1981: August 21
1980: August 3
You will need to take 2011,1999,1998,1992and 1981 of the list because I am pretty sure,they are not going to be any hurricane in here on those dates.That leave us with only 5 seasons ahead.
Even thought it only takes one storm man im so mad with the way August has not spit out no classic storm this is not your typical season 06 and 09 for ya.
Quoting 1203. StormTrackerScott:
One thing to note which I am sure will not be discussed on this warm biased blog is the record cold temperatures that occured this past weekend across much of the SE US (excluding FL). Some highs never made it out of the 50's in August. I don't think I have EVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August.


This blog is not "warm biased", whatever that means. Dr. M usually discusses extremes or weather/climatological anomalies of significance. A couple days of cooler or warmer than normal temperatures doesn't really merit any attention as that happens all the time. Even a google search returns few meaningful results.
Quoting 1232. ncstorm:


CMC ensembles still seeing the wave tracked through the bahamas and possible development off the Florida east coast and heading north as the Navgem









The cmc always develop storms in the eastern seabord and they never materialize.
Does anyone recall a situation where we had this much SAL to contend with? It looks like it is becoming even more dominant and impenetrable. The models clearly do not know how to incorporate this.

So, the possibility of a "bust" season exists. Isnt that what we want?
Nea you get a big + from me. Facts people cold hard facts. Cool for this time of year not all that unusual. No hurricanes til last week of Aug. not all that unusual. Hot in Fla and the Desert SW. not that unusual.Plenty of tropical action Late Aug early Sept.
Good morning. it seems this season we have an unusually strong Azores bermuda high. this is causing sinking air across most of the atlantic, and it doesnt help that the mjo isnt on our side at the moment. you look at the mjo pulse and it will come back into the atlantic by august 25th. this is one of those neutral seasons were august isn't the most active month, it would be september and early october. this wont be your 16-20 storm year. more liek 13-15 which is still active although expect more hurricanes and majors. 1999 is a good analouge, not that many storms but very powerful ones
Quoting 1236. Xyrus2000:


This blog is not "warm biased", whatever that means. Dr. M usually discusses extremes or weather/climatological anomalies of significance. A couple days of cooler or warmer than normal temperatures doesn't really merit any attention as that happens all the time. Even a google search returns few meaningful results.

Yes, this blog is warm biased. All the way. I have been reading it for almost a year now and can sense the pattern. Even when it is record cold, it never gets mentioned in the same breath as the warmth. But who really cares. It's still a great blog, with great weather information.
1242. pcola57
Quoting 1234. allancalderini:
You will need to take 2011,1999,1998,1992and 1981 of the list because I am pretty sure,they are not going to be any hurricane in here on those dates.That leave us with only 5 seasons ahead.


(PS.. Allan..Couch,Cough..List is Since 1980..there was life before then..I was in my 30's then..More to come my friend.. :)
Are we in AUGS or June lol
1244. ncstorm
So let me understand correctly, if the record breaks a a daily high/low, then its pffft, nothing to get excited about..but if the record breaks a monthly high/low then its warranted and its then an extreme?

Quoting 1216. VR46L:
Dust forecast From TAU




Great graphic! Wonder how that outbreak will have on our CV season and how long the dust will last. This is really put some dents in lowering our forecasted numbered this season I would suspect.
Quoting 1179. 69Viking:
Good morning from soggy NW Florida. I forgot to check the gauge this morning for an exact figure but I'm guessing we picked up 6-7 inches of rain this weekend. The forecast says we might dry out for a bit, sure hope so. It's hard to believe it's Aug. 19 and the tropics are this quiet.


we had just shy of 9" since Friday night. rain in forecast all week. if we were to have a tropical storm anytime in next few weeks..would not be a good thing!
Quoting 1242. pcola57:


(PS.. Allan..Couch,Cough..List is Since 1980..there was life before then..I was in my 30's then..More to come my friend.. :)
I know,what I say where in the seasons he post.
Quoting 1244. ncstorm:
So let me understand correctly, if the record breaks an a daily high/low, then its pffft, nothing to get excited about..but if the record breaks a monthly high/low then its warranted and its then an extreme?



Now you are drinking the koolaid! LOL Good morning all. Nice, unseasonably cool temps here after the record cool in July. Hummmmm
1249. pcola57
Quoting 1247. allancalderini:
I know,what I say where in the seasons he post.


All Good.. :)
nam must be picking up the leftovers of ex 92 near texas.
Quoting 1228. VR46L:


Looks like you might get a break today ... looks like the rain is now going to go where it is wanted ...



Too early to make that call with the pattern were stuck in. Lots of moisture still being pumped up out of the Gulf.


Dry air continues encroaching upon East Africa. Does this signal an end to the wave train??
Quoting 1226. Neapolitan:
While you personally may have "NEVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August", meteorologists have; while all the data are not yet in, it doesn't appear that a single all-time August monthly low temperature record was set or tied across the US South over the past week. It was unusually chilly, to be sure--but hardly anything unprecedented along the lines of the late-June heat event across the US Southwest, or the just-now-winding down heat wave in China.

Remember: it's not the blog that's warm-biased; it's the climate.

But, hey, at least the US is heating back up, right?

hot

Not that I want to stay on this subject, since I have better things to do. But I have to ask though since you never responded to me the last time. But how come you only post the CPC maps when it is projected to be warm. NOT that I have a problem with it, but all means I don't lol, but really do wonder. I mean I post the GFS precip maps when it is showing big rains, only because I want big rains. Is that why you show the map when it is projected to be warm...because you like warm weather or just want to continue to show others the planet is warming.

Pssst....that's called weather by the way. Climate maps with a 30 year baseline or greater would be a better choice in showing AGW...

But that just me, you know. :-)
1254. ncstorm
Quoting 1237. allancalderini:
The cmc always develop storms in the eastern seabord and they never materialize.


SUBJECTIVE LIST OF MODEL PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS


I think we can put that theory to rest..according to NOAA, no it doesn't..
1255. SLU
Quoting 1210. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning, LOL at the mood in here this morning, some would call it a knee-jerk reaction.

MJO Forecast still looks like upward motion comes by the end of the month and will persist through the climatilogical peak.





Last nights 00z model runs:

2 systems showing up on the FIM



2 systems showing up on the GFS



And the Euro shows a system at the end of its run

Link

Remember it only takes one, regardless of the total numbers at the end of the season.


Finally a post with some common sense.

Can I get a link for the FIM models.

If this MJO forecast verifies, September could be as active as September 2010.
1256. VR46L
Quoting 1245. SouthernIllinois:

Great graphic! Wonder how that outbreak will have on our CV season and how long the dust will last. This is really put some dents in lowering our forecasted numbered this season I would suspect.


Thanks , I stumbled on it some time ago ... if it keeps going the way its going this could be one of the biggest busts ever of a season ! Looking more like 2006 or 2009 are becoming the analog years ...



That area of 30 too 40kt of wind shear seems like its been there most of the season
Quoting 1252. seer2012:


Dry air continues encroaching upon East Africa. Does this signal an end to the wave train??
See you in September....maybe October. 8-1-0
Quoting 1253. SouthernIllinois:

Not that I want to stay on this subject, since I have better things to do. But I have to ask though since you never responded to me the last time. But how come you only post the CPC maps when it is projected to be warm. NOT that I have a problem with it, but all means I don't lol, but really do wonder. I mean I post the GFS precip maps when it is showing big rains, only because I want big rains. Is that why you show the map when it is projected to be warm...because you like warm weather or just want to continue to show others the planet is warming.

Pssst....the called weather by the way. Climate maps would be a better choice in showing AGW...


Plus + one brazzilion!
1260. VR46L
Quoting 1255. SLU:


Finally a post with some common sense.

Can I get a link for the FIM models.

If this MJO forecast verifies, September could be as active as September 2010.


FIM Models
Quoting 1256. VR46L:


Thanks , I stumbled on it some time ago ... if it keeps going the way its going this could be one of the biggest busts ever of a season ! Looking more like 2006 or 2009 are becoming the analog years ...

You know, I was thinking about that the other day. An analog year? Hmmm....I think you nailed it! 2006 or 2009.
Quoting 1203. StormTrackerScott:
One thing to note which I am sure will not be discussed on this warm biased blog is the record cold temperatures that occured this past weekend across much of the SE US (excluding FL). Some highs never made it out of the 50's in August. I don't think I have EVER seen such a cold airmass move this far south in the middle of August.
It's been cooler than average all summer across our part of the N Hemisphere... I was saying yesterday that last week is the first genuinely tropical air I've felt here all summer... most of June and the first half of July were cooler than average... much of the central and eastern CONUS was cooler than average in the latter half of July and early August while I was there... talking 40s and 50s at the height of summer...
Quoting 1218. SLU:
This is a post by wxgeek723 from yesterday.

Quoting 212. wxgeek723:
For comparison:
Date of first hurricane.

Bold indicates later than today's date

2012: June 21
2011: August 22
2010: June 29
2009: August 17
2008: July 7
2007: August 16
2006: August 27
2005: July 5
2004: August 3
2003: July 10
2002: September 11
2001: September 9

2000: August 6
1999: August 20
1998: August 22

1997: July 12
1996: July 7
1995: June 4
1994: August 18
1993: August 26
1992: August 22

1991: August 17
1990: July 29
1989: August 1
1988: September 2
1987: August 22
1986: June 25
1985: July 24
1984: September 11
1983: August 17
1982: June 4
1981: August 21
1980: August 3
Que 2001 for me. Because I tried to use 5 year averages of storm totals and their relationship to El-Nino/La-Nina years and came up with this:

1998: 14/10/3 (moderate La-Nina)
1999: 12/8/5 (neutral)
2000: 15/8/3 (weak La-Nina)
2001*:15/9/4 (neutral)
2002: 12/4/2 (moderate El-Nino)

2010: 19/12/5 (strong La-Nina)
2011: 19/7/4 (weak La-Nina)
2012: 19/10/2 (weak La-Nina)
2013**5/0/0 (neutral)
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino?)

*denotes season that lines up with current season numbers wise

**denotes current season

As wxgeek723 and SLU point out the formation of the first hurricane in the 2001 Atlantic Hurricane Season did not occur until September 1, 2001. That season would go onto finish with 11 more tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes with the last system dissipating on December 6, 2001. Therefore, 2001 should be included as an analog to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Link

2001 Atlantic Hurricane Season
1264. Doss2k
This season may be a bust for those who enjoy tracking storms, true. However, for all of us who own property or have been affected in the past by a major hurricane this season so far is about as far from a bust as you can get.

I can't stop a storm from happening and enjoy watching it as the rest of you do, but to be upset that there haven't been any storms this year to kill people or do billions in damage to people's property is pretty selfish.

In reality, people should be cheering for seasons like this every year.
1265. ncstorm
Quoting 1248. StormPro:


Now you are drinking the koolaid! LOL Good morning all. Nice, unseasonably cool temps here after the record cool in July. Hummmmm


LOL, SP..always drinking coffee over here..no koolaid for me..just wanted to clarify what the criteria this week is for GW and what isnt..
1266. VR46L
Quoting 1261. SouthernIllinois:

You know, I was thinking about that the other day. An analog year? Hmmm....I think you nailed it! 2006 or 2009.


I said it in June Ya know , that I was getting a feeling about it being a quiet one !
Quoting 1265. ncstorm:


LOL, SP..always drinking coffee over here..no koolaid for me..just wanted to clarify what the criteria this week is for GW and what isnt..


I know you, I was picking at ya. 72 here with a high of 87. Enjoying an early fall on the warming planet
1268. SLU
Quoting 1234. allancalderini:
You will need to take 2011,1999,1998,1992and 1981 of the list because I am pretty sure,they are not going to be any hurricane in here on those dates.That leave us with only 5 seasons ahead.


Yeah, the dry air this year as been a huge culprit so far but the overall conditions are still favourable for an active season. All seasons have these long lulls in activity so patience is the key.
1269. ncstorm
okay, I'm out till later..

1270. SLU
Quoting 1260. VR46L:


FIM Models


thanks
Quoting 1253. SouthernIllinois:

Not that I want to stay on this subject, since I have better things to do. But I have to ask though since you never responded to me the last time. But how come you only post the CPC maps when it is projected to be warm. NOT that I have a problem with it, but all means I don't lol, but really do wonder. I mean I post the GFS precip maps when it is showing big rains, only because I want big rains. Is that why you show the map when it is projected to be warm...because you like warm weather or just want to continue to show others the planet is warming.

Pssst....the called weather by the way. Climate maps would be a better choice in showing AGW...
The fact that you've asked this perhaps a half-dozen times over a four-day span tells me you definitely do want to stay on the subject. So let me throw you a bone that you can gnaw on for a while: the reason I "only post the CPC maps when it is projected to be warm" is because, quite simply, that I don't. I've posted them when they've shown deep blues and near-purples many times, so my question to you would be: why do you only notice the CPC anomaly maps I post that show warming?

Now, those maps do tend to show more reds than blues overall, but that's because the earth is warming; could that fact be influencing your perceptions?
1272. VR46L
Quoting 1251. 69Viking:


Too early to make that call with the pattern were stuck in. Lots of moisture still being pumped up out of the Gulf.


Wishful thinking, you must be completely fed up now .
Quoting 1264. Doss2k:
This season may be a bust for those who enjoy tracking storms, true. However, for all of us who own property or have been affected in the past by a major hurricane this season so far is about as far from a bust as you can get.

I can't stop a storm from happening and enjoy watching it as the rest of you do, but to be upset that there haven't been any storms this year to kill people or do billions in damage to people's property is pretty selfish.

In reality, people should be cheering for seasons like this every year.
Couldnt agree more. And if it turns out that SAL has become a permanent climatological feature, we no longer will need so many tropical meteorologists, and can cut some of the fat out of that budget. Every little bit helps.
Quoting 1271. Neapolitan:
The fact that you've asked this perhaps a half-dozen times over a four-day span tells me you definitely do want to stay on the subject.

Haha. I haven't been on this blog all weekend!!! I haven't been on since last Tuesday!! lol. I suppose I should log in more often since my blog has many people in there trying to write to me and I feel bad not getting back to them...
Good Morning!

7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Today's sunrise from Lantana, Florida.


Oh great, I'm half asleep and you hit me with a flashbulb first thing in the morning. Anybody got a cane with a red tip? Thanks so much.

Broke our dry spell with a deluge of 0.01" of rain yesterday. Chances went up today from 20% to 40%.

So much for my comment regarding butchering one another . . . however, why is it that someone comes on, points out the unusual cool weather. When others come on to provide an alternative viewpoint (and one in which I do believe the evidence in) they get pounced upon?

Seems like those that don't want to hear about AGW/Climate Change are always the ones to bring it up.

Forecast for today: All quiet in the Atlantic. major storm brewing at WU.

Cheers, and at least lets keep it relatively civil.

(back to the coffee, and enjoying the cool weather).

Quoting 1267. StormPro:


I know you, I was picking at ya. 72 here with a high of 87. Enjoying an early fall on the warming planet

Finally some relief for you! Hey, better than heat indexes of 105-110 like you guys were having for what seemed like eternity!! It's has been very chilly here, a cool crisp fall feeling for the last couple weeks. But back to seasonal averages now with highs in the mid to upper 80's and brilliant sunshine. No complaints with that either!! :)
In addition to post 1263, ironically it is the same list of names we are using this year. And just based on the last couple of runs of the GFS would tend to show a recurving pattern around Bermuda where the high pressure is weaker there than say around the Azores. I asked Kori last night if he thought a 980 mb. hurricane would be able to bust through a 1016 isobar. and he wasn't sure, but he thought it could, hopefully we will be able to test that hypothesis this year.
Quoting 1275. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Today's sunrise from Lantana, Florida.


Oh great, I'm half asleep and you hit me with a flashbulb first thing in the morning. Anybody got a cane with a red tip? Thanks so much.

Broke our dry spell with a deluge of 0.01" of rain yesterday. Chances went up today from 20% to 40%.


SO CUTE!! Great photo! That's a jigsaw puzzle for Pete's Sake!! :)
Quoting 1274. SouthernIllinois:

Haha. I haven't been on this blog all weekend!!! I haven't been on since last Tuesday!! lol. I suppose I should log in more often since my blog has many people in there trying to write to me and I feel bad not getting back to them...
SI
Quoting 1266. VR46L:


I said it in June Ya know , that I was getting a feeling about it being a quiet one !

Yep. Fine by me!
Quoting 1277. SouthernIllinois:

Finally some relief for you! Hey, better than heat indexes of 105-110 like you guys were having for what seemed like eternity!! It's has been very chilly here, a cool crisp fall feeling for the last couple weeks. But back to seasonal averages now with highs in the mid to upper 80's and brilliant sunshine. No complaints with that either!! :)

Yeah I'm leaving on my bike a week from Wednesday to head that way. I'm heading to Tennessee, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio then back south. Guess I better pack my leather riding clothes huh?
Quoting 1282. StormPro:

Yeah I'm leaving on my bike a week from Wednesday to head that way. I'm heading to Tennessee, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio then back south. Guess I better pack my leather riding clothes huh?

SOUNDS FUN!!! You picked a good week to go! Have you seen the HPC. It looks like Texas has all year with a big giant dry hole. LOL. You should have good riding weather. Take me with you!!! lol
1284. SLU
Quoting 1263. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Que 2001 for me. Because I tried to use 5 year averages of storm totals and their relationship to El-Nino/La-Nina years and came up with this:

1998: 14/10/3 (moderate La-Nina)
1999: 12/8/5 (neutral)
2000: 15/8/3 (weak La-Nina)
2001*:15/9/4 (neutral)
2002: 12/4/2 (moderate El-Nino)

2010: 19/12/5 (strong La-Nina)
2011: 19/7/4 (weak La-Nina)
2012: 19/10/2 (weak La-Nina)
2013**5/0/0 (neutral)
2014: _/_/_ (El-Nino?)

*denotes season that lines up with current season numbers wise

**denotes current season

As wxgeek723 and SLU point out the formation of the first hurricane in the 2001 Atlantic Hurricane Season did not occur until September 1, 2001. That season would go onto finish with 11 more tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes with the last system dissipating on December 6, 2001. Therefore, 2001 should be included as an analog to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Link

2001 Atlantic Hurricane Season


The legacy of 2005 lives on. If July doesn't end with 7 storms and 2 major hurricanes including a cat. 5 tracking through the Caribbean, then the season is a bust.

On a more serious note, we are due for another bust El Nino season soon. It could come by next year or 2015.
Quoting 1281. SouthernIllinois:

Yep. Fine by me!
Ughh that would be boring if you actually want to get out and chase these things. I wouldn't mind being in a Category 1 hurricane as I have been out in strong tropical storms before and I was hardly scared by them and found it very much fun, oh please don't let it be that boring. :)
Quoting 1280. Neapolitan:

Wow a comment! From when? What does this prove? That you are stalking your perceived enemies? Geez man, go somewhere that causes you less internal strife and grief. (sits back and waits for his ban smugly) 20 % chance of rain here today
Quoting 1239. weaverwxman:
Nea you get a big + from me. Facts people cold hard facts. Cool for this time of year not all that unusual. No hurricanes til last week of Aug. not all that unusual. Hot in Fla and the Desert SW. not that unusual.Plenty of tropical action Late Aug early Sept.


I'm sorry a high of 66 in Hot Lanta in mid August is unheard of and this broke the record all-time low for a high temp in August. Here comes the GW brigade. Get a grip people we have cold and warm anomalies all the time and my point is only the warm anomalies get mentioned. I'm sure Doc Masters can a relate as his area has not had a summer this year as everyday has feature below average temps for months now. Now if it was 90 everyday with heat indices of 100 plus then it would be mentioned on this blog everyday. Now that is some cold hard facts brother!
Quoting 1285. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ughh that would be boring if you actually want to get out and chase these things. I wouldn't mind being in a Category 1 hurricane as I have been out in strong tropical storms before and I was hardly scared by them and found it very much fun, oh please don't let it be that boring. :)

That's what the Pacific is for. They can have the big ones as long as they stay over water!!!
Quoting 1279. SouthernIllinois:

SO CUTE!! Great photo! That's a jigsaw puzzle for Pete's Sake!! :)


He's standing in front of a Giant Bird of Paradise plant. So named for their flowers...


Quoting 1286. StormPro:

Wow a comment! From when? What does this prove? That you are stalking your perceived enemies? Geez man, go somewhere that causes you less internal strife and grief. (sits back and waits for his ban smugly) 20 % chance of rain here today

I can't even find the words to respond to that, so I'm not and will just chalk it up to someone with a lot of time on his hands combing through others posts in a creepy weird kind of fashion.
Quoting 1288. SouthernIllinois:

That's what the Pacific is for. They can have the big ones as long as they stay over water!!!
Yeah but you know how expensive that would be to take a trip over there?
Quoting 1256. VR46L:


Thanks , I stumbled on it some time ago ... if it keeps going the way its going this could be one of the biggest busts ever of a season ! Looking more like 2006 or 2009 are becoming the analog years ...


I've been thinking the same thing for a while now.
Quoting 1290. SouthernIllinois:

I can't even find the words to respond to that, so I'm not and will just chalk it up to someone with a lot of time on his hands combing through others posts in a creepy weird kind of fashion.

Sure you can come along lol. But seriously I'm looking forward to drier air for sure and the long range forecast really looks that good? (for riding, not farming)
Quoting 1289. mikatnight:


He's standing in front of a Giant Bird of Paradise plant. So named for their flowers...



yeah that is cool! So would like to grow one of those but something tells me it's a lil too cold up here for that to survive!!
Folks.

It is indeed possible to have a cooler than average summer without busting any records.

It balances off the warmer than average summers so we can get an AVERAGE...

Anybody who is simplistic enough to assume that just because there is GW every summer will be warmer than the last is, well, too simplistic in their thinking. Take note of the wavy pattern of weather... there's a reason for it.

I for one have been glad to have a few cooler than average days mixed in this summer. However, I'm not taking a few cooler days as a sign that GW is over, any more than I took a few warmer days as sign that GW is here.

You know I think I was the one that said a while back that hurricanes making landfalls aren't necessarily a bad thing, in fact a hurricane making landfall in drought striken areas like say Texas would help alleviate their drought and help fill up reservoirs that have been dry and that are used to supply farms. And the rain water is good for plant growth. Better than ground water which has their restrictions during drought and don't bring with it the nutrients from rain water. Just a different perspective on things.
Quoting 1293. StormPro:

Sure you can come along lol. But seriously I'm looking forward to drier air for sure and the long range forecast really looks that good? (for riding, not farming)

The growing season is winding down now. The most important months are behind us. Now I would like to dry out a bit to pave the way for some BEAUTIFUL fall foliage and leaf peeping!!! And no better way to take that in but on a bike. :)
Good morning Dexter!

Quoting 1290. SouthernIllinois:

I can't even find the words to respond to that, so I'm not and will just chalk it up to someone with a lot of time on his hands combing through others posts in a creepy weird kind of fashion.


LOL! Why anyone would want to pick on such an outgoing personality as yours is beyond me. Dexter is up in arms! barkbarkbark! That's my friend! You leave my friend alone!

It's ok Dex. She's ok. No one's hurting your friend. It's just a blog.

I never should have taught him to read...

Much to do. Have a great day everyone!
Quoting 1297. SouthernIllinois:

The growing season is winding down now. The most important months are behind us. Now I would like to dry out a bit to pave the way for some BEAUTIFUL fall foliage and leaf peeping!!! And no better way to take that in but on a bike. :)
Keep a helmet close, I'll holla at ya!
Quoting 1286. StormPro:

On second thought... this is a wasted space. Soo....

Quoting 1289. mikatnight:


He's standing in front of a Giant Bird of Paradise plant. So named for their flowers...


Did u take that this a.m.? That's a pretty good shot for early morning, if so.
1303. Relix
People got spoiled by 2005. That was a once in a century event people.
Quoting 1275. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Today's sunrise from Lantana, Florida.


Oh great, I'm half asleep and you hit me with a flashbulb first thing in the morning. Anybody got a cane with a red tip? Thanks so much.

Broke our dry spell with a deluge of 0.01" of rain yesterday. Chances went up today from 20% to 40%.

I just love these pics. mikanight and Dexter would be the kind of friend I would want.
Quoting 1290. SouthernIllinois:

I can't even find the words to respond to that, so I'm not and will just chalk it up to someone with a lot of time on his hands combing through others posts in a creepy weird kind of fashion.


You stated you hadn't been on the blog since the previous Tuesday. That was a false statement. And yes, you do keep bringing up the temperature map, and it's annoying, and please stop.
Quoting 1300. StormPro:
Keep a helmet close, I'll holla at ya!

You got it!!
Quoting 1290. SouthernIllinois:

I can't even find the words to respond to that, so I'm not and will just chalk it up to someone with a lot of time on his hands combing through others posts in a creepy weird kind of fashion.
Basically, it proves that you posted since last Tuesday. It requires little time or effort, since the search feature of the site will do that for you in a second. Actually, less than a second.

What I will suggest: 1) if you want to dish it out to Nea, be ready to take it too... because he WILL bring it back to you. 2) Be careful with the personal comments; they can become a slippery slope.
Quoting 1303. Relix:
People got spoiled by 2005. That was a once in a century event people.
I agree looking back it seems as though every century will have 1 season like that, in the 1900s it was the 1933 Atlantic Hurricane Season, in the 1800s it was the 1887 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You are right though we are spoiled. The season that spoiled me was 2004 being that I live in FL. Every year I think we are going to get a season like that and every year that goes by draws me further and further away from that, I guess they are called anomalies for a reason, and then there is thing called it's a matter of time when the next major hurricane will hit here, it hasn't been since 1921 since this area saw its last direct strike from a major hurricane.
Quoting 1299. mikatnight:


LOL! Why anyone would want to pick on such an outgoing personality as yours is beyond me. Dexter is up in arms! barkbarkbark! That's my friend! You leave my friend alone!

It's ok Dex. She's ok. No one's hurting your friend. It's just a blog.

I never should have taught him to read...

Much to do. Have a great day everyone!

Someone has got my back!! What a guy!! <3

And look up Dex at post 1298. YOu have a new play buddy!! :)
Quoting 1294. SouthernIllinois:

yeah that is cool! So would like to grow one of those but something tells me it's a lil too cold up here for that to survive!!
Indoor potting. Drag it out onto your porch in the summer.
1312. WxLogic
Good Morning
Morning all from the ATX. Kind of bummed to see 92 gone and I guess that means we stay dry longer but it is what it is. On a better note the temps here have been rockin. High 80s to low 90s so it was perfect for some sand volleyball yesterday. I hope everyone had a great weekend.
1314. ncstorm
Quoting 1308. BahaHurican:
Basically, it proves that you posted since last Tuesday. It requires little time or effort, since the search feature of the site will do that for you in a second. Actually, less than a second.

What I will suggest: 1) if you want to dish it out to Nea, be ready to take it too... because he WILL bring it back to you. 2) Be careful with the personal comments; they can become a slippery slope.


Baha,

I just tried to search with my name at the top of the page and it gave me an error message about ncstorm is not a recognized city..where does one search for their handle to where it brings up comments?
Good Morning. Only noting that we are still several weeks away from the traditional peak of the season in spite of the current lull and the pending MJO pulse has not reached the Basin yet. If we get to the historical peak on September 10th, and there is not much activity or storms in the Atlantic Basin in spite of favorable MJO conditions, then we would start to look at what anomalous conditions are other wise retarding storm development.

Too early to declare the season a "bust" if you only go by the numbers and the fact remains that we have had 5 storms through the present period. Just have to keep an eye on the models once again.
Quoting 1298. GeoffreyWPB:
Good morning Dexter!



Hi Madison!

Quoting 1301. BahaHurican:
Quoting 1286. StormPro:

On second thought... this is a wasted space. Soo....

Did u take that this a.m.? That's a pretty good shot for early morning, if so.


Flower shot is from Google images.

I'm late. I'm late...
Vorticity in the Western GOM related to EX 92L strengthened sightly over the last few hours, but it is still very weak, and with such a late start on DMAX it doesn't seem like it will have any potential to organize before DMIN comes. I'll keep my eyes on it.

Also, satellite imagery seems to reveal a very weak and still weakening LLC in ex-Erin.
Quoting 1315. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Only noting that we are still several weeks away from the traditional peak of the season in spite of the current lull and pending MJO pulse has not reached the Basin yet. If we get to the historical peak on September 10th, and there is not much activity or storms in the Atlantic Basin in spite of favorable MJO conditions, then we would start to look at what anomalous conditions are other wise retarding storm development.

Too early to declare the season a "bust" if you only go by the numbers and the fact remains that we have had 4 storms through the present period. Just have to keep an eye on the models once again.
5 storms* but you are right otherwise, good point, and I will eat my words if like you say we get to the peak and there is nothing out there.
BTW, @ S. IL

DO NOT think I am trying to "bad you out" or anything like that. I'm saying it's easy to get into personality competitions here that don't really matter in the longer run.
1321. SLU
Only a matter of time before the Atlantic lights up.

It seems like the atmospheric river in the GOM is taking a turn to the west. Almost lined up for Texas now. As long as that vorticity remains where it is, I think this river is going to keep popping up every morning.
Quoting 1272. VR46L:


Wishful thinking, you must be completely fed up now .


Definitely! The rain this weekend canceled plans for two days of boating as part of Boat Week here that included a huge boating poker run on Saturday and raft up at Crab Island on Sunday. For the first time in over 20 years of the poker run was canceled. I have a boat that I usually take out at least once every weekend during the summer but this summer have only been able to get out 3 or 4 times. I'm ready for this wet summer to be over the fall hunting season to be here. At least then I can still hunt in the rain in the shooting houses we have at our hunting camp in SW Alabama. A lot more enjoyable than sitting at home watching the radar which has happened a lot this summer.
1324. StormWx
Whether you are pro global warming or anti global warming, what are you as one person out of 7,105,000,000 billion people going to do about it? Seems like a big waste of time trying to convince a small crowd on a weather blog. Instead of searching for peer-reviewed work or not, or posting tweets from someone that opposes your view, ask yourself...what are you doing to make less of a carbon footprint? Seems like life is too short to spend all day trying to convince people on a weather blog that the earth is warming. Go out, enjoy life, get off the computer, away from the screen and live a little.
Quoting 1314. ncstorm:


Baha,

I just tried to search with my name at the top of the page and it gave me an error message about ncstorm is not a recognized city..where does one search for their handle to where it brings up comments?
I usually use [search blogs] on the main blogs page. Haven't used it for a while, since they put the "member since" info on and community activity runner on the side, but it works for looking up old blogs and blog entries.
Quoting 1318. RascalNag:
Vorticity in the Western GOM related to EX 92L strengthened sightly over the last few hours, but it is still very weak, and with such a late start on DMAX it doesn't seem like it will have any potential to organize before DMIN comes. I'll keep my eyes on it.

Also, satellite imagery seems to reveal a very weak and still weakening LLC in ex-Erin.
Good spot out on ex-92L there does seem to be some sort of cyclonic turning in the atmosphere going on there.



There is some stretched out 850 mb. vort there and ex-Erin still has her vort.

For the moment, SAL is dominating the Central Atlantic "Middle Passage" along the ITCZ so it could conceivably take a week or two (if the SAL retards) for some of the pending African Waves to re-moisten the ITCZ. CV storm development is inter-connected with SAL levels and no way around that obstacle at present.

Link

A little odd for this time of the year (a heavily suppressed ITCZ in mid-August) but we just have to see what happens over the next two weeks.
this season is done.....;)
Will check back with Yall after lunch and have a great day in the meantime.............WW.
1330. ncstorm
Quoting 1325. BahaHurican:
I usually use [search blogs] on the main blogs page. Haven't used it for a while, since they put the "member since" info on and community activity runner on the side, but it works for looking up old blogs and blog entries.


thanks I will try that..I was looking for something I posted earlier last week and was going through every blog posted in the archives and it got tiresome especially those with over 3000 comments..
Quoting 1326. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good spot out on ex-92L there does seem to be some sort of cyclonic turning in the atmosphere going on there.



There is some stretched out 850 mb. vort there and ex-Erin still has her vort.

It would be something if whatever that is left of 92L does spin up enough to make "landfall" in TX on the 21st.... lol

Still watching ex-Erin, myself... just in case... :o)
Well, gotta run... lucky I had this much time in here this a.m.

Later, all....
Quoting 1304. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I just love these pics. mikanight and Dexter would be the kind of friend I would want.
Do you know what type of breed is he?
Quoting 1309. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree looking back it seems as though every century will have 1 season like that, in the 1900s it was the 1933 Atlantic Hurricane Season, in the 1800s it was the 1887 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You are right though we are spoiled. The season that spoiled me was 2004 being that I live in FL. Every year I think we are going to get a season like that and every year that goes by draws me further and further away from that, I guess they are called anomalies for a reason, and then there is thing called it's a matter of time when the next major hurricane will hit here, it hasn't been since 1921 since this area saw its last direct strike from a major hurricane.
mm but remember that we are in the active era they might be one season to be active like 2005.
There's some spin in the clouds just NE of Puerto Rico it seems. The 850 mb map also shows a very weak vorticity there. Might have been something to watch if not for the 40 knot shear it's in.
1335. ncstorm
Quoting 1330. ncstorm:


thanks I will try that..I was looking for something I posted earlier last week and was going through every blog posted in the archives and it got tiresome especially those with over 3000 comments..


Okay that didnt work either..can anyone assist, Nea?..how are you able to find comments in other blogs or previous archived blogs?
1 heating degree day in Atlanta yesterday - our 1st HDD in the month of August since 1986!
It is amazing how many people are writing off the season when the various specialists from academia, government, etc. are expecting an intense season. It's only August 19th.

September, October, and possibly November should prove to be intense.


1338. jpsb
Quoting 1226. Neapolitan:
it doesn't appear that a single all-time August monthly low temperature record was set or tied


Summer chill: Atlanta breaks century-old cold temperature record by 4 degrees!


http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/23151205/atlanta- breaks-a-century-old-temperature-record
1339. LargoFl
1340. Dakster
Quoting 1338. jpsb:


Summer chill: Atlanta breaks century-old cold temperature record by 4 degrees!


http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/23151205/atlanta- breaks-a-century-old-temperature-record


Global Cooling? A return of the ice age?

A little early morning humor.
Quoting 1338. jpsb:


Summer chill: Atlanta breaks century-old cold temperature record by 4 degrees!


http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/23151205/atlanta- breaks-a-century-old-temperature-record

Careful....lol Nice find
1342. LargoFl
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA (CR 274) AFFECTING CALHOUN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&
Atlanta's high temperature on Thursday was only 73 degrees which is the coolest high temperature on record for August 15.
Official rainfall amount for July : 3 inches. This is 30% lower than average! What a BUST 2013 is in my island.
Quoting 1287. StormTrackerScott:


I'm sorry a high of 66 in Hot Lanta in mid August is unheard of and this broke the record all-time low for a high temp in August. Here comes the GW brigade. Get a grip people we have cold and warm anomalies all the time and my point is only the warm anomalies get mentioned. I'm sure Doc Masters can a relate as his area has not had a summer this year as everyday has feature below average temps for months now. Now if it was 90 everyday with heat indices of 100 plus then it would be mentioned on this blog everyday. Now that is some cold hard facts brother!
The 66 degrees recorded in Atlanta this weekend is several degrees above a number of previously recorded daily maximums for the month of August. (July, too, for that matter.) IOW, it was most definitely not unprecedented, and it was not an all-time low maximum. Can you cite a credible source?
Quoting 1338. jpsb:


Summer chill: Atlanta breaks century-old cold temperature record by 4 degrees!


http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/23151205/atlanta- breaks-a-century-old-temperature-record
A daily record is impressive--but it's not the all-time monthly low maximum we're discussing, is it?
*snooze* *zzzzzzzz*
Maybe 2006 should have been an analog, lol. Seriously though, the longer things take to get going to more intense it will be when it does. Packing 14 storms in the rest of the season you would think that there will be a good portion of time that there will be several storms going at once.
1348. LargoFl
Flash Flood Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL OF
NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.WITH EITHER ONGOING FLOODING OR SATURATED SOILS NEARLY EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT
TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD
AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH ARE LIKELY WITH UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

Quoting 1336. GeorgiaStormz:
1 heating degree day in Atlanta yesterday - our 1st HDD in the month of August since 1986!


I have family in Henry County and they said it was 59 Saturday morning and only reached a high of 65. They actually said "it was cold outside". All-Time records low highs all across the SE US fell Saturday according to TWC.

1350. LargoFl
Quoting 1321. SLU:
Only a matter of time before the Atlantic lights up.



I love to see that... maybe we will finally have rain ...GOOD RAINS... during S O N period XD
I notice the little creeper Kman has been monitoring, has some vorticity about 550miles east of Barbados. there is some visible sin near 13N 54 W. A little convection has flared near what appears to be a very weak low, maybe not too significant but if trend continues could bring some blustery conditions to the windwards by Tuesday night.
Quoting 1349. StormTrackerScott:


I have family in Henry County and they said it was 59 Saturday morning and only reached a high of 65. They actually said "it was cold outside". All-Time records low highs all across the SE US fell Saturday according to TWC.
Now Scott, you know the AGW crowd doesn't take TWC seriously. Oh wait that was then...now TWC is the owner, guess they bought some credibility
1354. Grothar
Quoting 1338. jpsb:


Summer chill: Atlanta breaks century-old cold temperature record by 4 degrees!


http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/23151205/atlanta- breaks-a-century-old-temperature-record


How do we know someone didn't have a fan on the thermometer? I understand to make temperatures warmer, they light matches underneath them and put them right over concrete.
The GFS has been quite consistent at the end of every run with showing the Wave Train picking up to a faster pace, with the Steering pattern in a Dangerous setup.
00z

06Z
You all should know better than to argue with Mr. Heat (aka Neapolitan).



If not daily, monthly. If not monthly, yearly. If not yearly, decennially. If not decennially, centennially. There will always be an argument. Do not fan the flames.
1357. pcola57
For those who are bored right now..

NOAA 2005 Season Video..Click Here
Will someone tell SAL the hit is off on anything leaving Africa ?
Quoting 1349. StormTrackerScott:


I have family in Henry County and they said it was 59 Saturday morning and only reached a high of 65. They actually said "it was cold outside". All-Time records low highs all across the SE US fell Saturday according to TWC.



Here in Asheville, we struggled to get above 60s and actually had a high of 67 just few days ago. Lows were in the 50s as well. Unreal for August anywhere in North Carolina. Today, I actually gave in to hoodie because the rain were cold.
Morning Evening.

I celebrated the announcement on this blog last week that low temperature and high temperature records were approximately equal, as Dr. M. said in the blog.

It isn't an average global monthly temperature, but it is a step toward it.
Alright WTH is going on in here today?
Quoting 1320. BahaHurican:
BTW, @ S. IL

DO NOT think I am trying to "bad you out" or anything like that. I'm saying it's easy to get into personality competitions here that don't really matter in the longer run.

Oh no I am not thinking that at all. lol. And no personality competitions are going on...at least not with me. TRUST me...I got plenty of other things to deal with in my life (real life face to face) than to duke it out over the web. lol. i can't even keep track of what I did yesterday most of the time, let along last Tuesday! fine I made a comment or two since then, but NEVER mentioned anything about a cpc temperature map a half dozen times in the past 4 days as nea stated. And That's how this goofiness all got started...i think. haha.

But no biggie, no hard feelings...i learned many years ago in college not to roll like that. so no worries baha, nea, or anyone else!!

Nat
Quoting 1328. TampaSpin:
this season is done.....;)


Then why you here?
Quoting 1361. RitaEvac:
Alright WTH is going on in here today?

The heat is getting to some. But I sense a AGW or heat blog from Dr. M. so it works out well I have other plans later on. Okay, so even my 3 year niece hates Summertime Sadness. THat is telling you something since she loves all top 40! haha.
1365. Dakster
Quoting 1354. Grothar:


How do we know someone didn't have a fan on the thermometer? I understand to make temperatures warmer, they light matches underneath them and put them right over concrete.


Conspiracy theory.
Quoting 1353. StormPro:
Now Scott, you know the AGW crowd doesn't take TWC seriously. Oh wait that was then...now TWC is the owner, guess they bought some credibility

I can definitely ride on that!! *Shops Online for Helmets* LOL
Lots of dusts since yesterday afternoon :( That's why we didn't get the expected rain! Oh my.... I HATE IT!
Some valley fog in the banks over the mighty Mississip and along the Devil's Kitchen / Cedar Lake watershed but otherwise looking good my friends. YAH!!!

Quoting 1366. SouthernIllinois:

I can definitely ride on that!! *Shops Online for Helmets* LOL

No need to shop LOL, I always keep one in the saddlebag
Quoting 1348. LargoFl:
Flash Flood Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR ALL OF
NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.WITH EITHER ONGOING FLOODING OR SATURATED SOILS NEARLY EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT
TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD
AVERAGES AROUND AN INCH ARE LIKELY WITH UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.



Yeah, welcome to my summer of rain!
Please don't make me come downstairs.

Quoting 1364. SouthernIllinois:

The heat is getting to some. But I sense a AGW or heat blog from Dr. M. so it works out well I have other plans later on. Okay, so even my 3 year niece hates Summertime Sadness. THat is telling you something since she loves all top 40! haha.


Well, sounds like some folks are getting hit by pitches, (A-Rod) but I'm coming up again and jacking it outta the park to shut everybody up!

Memorable song of summer 2013: Summertime sadness
I promise you it's not normal to be this cold during the day in August in the Southeast with these hot and humid summers the last 5 years I was in state... the highs are below averages most of month and the lows are about average here in Asheville.

Quoting 1349. StormTrackerScott:


I have family in Henry County and they said it was 59 Saturday morning and only reached a high of 65. They actually said "it was cold outside". All-Time records low highs all across the SE US fell Saturday according to TWC.




All of that is true.
It was also windy and rainy. Miserable couple of days.
Quoting 1369. StormPro:

No need to shop LOL, I always keep one in the saddlebag

Since you don't come across as one of those on here with a giant inflatable ego head, the helmet should prolly fit, right?? Then I'm game!!
More If you're bored stuff:

The year is 2200, November 6th. Let's review that year's Atlantic Hurricane season.

Please note: In 2129 the United States Congress enacted the unretirement of all past retired storms and the order in which the names that were to be used were drawn randomly by a computer as the storms generated from depression status.

Quoting 1372. RitaEvac:


Well, sounds like some folks are getting hit by pitches, (A-Rod) but I'm coming up again and jacking it outta the park to shut everybody up!

Already have a helmet, so I'll grab my mitt to catch it!!
Quoting 1354. Grothar:


How do we know someone didn't have a fan on the thermometer? I understand to make temperatures warmer, they light matches underneath them and put them right over concrete.


600 hundered weather stations shutdown for similar reasons!

Link
Hi, Every Body!

I am back from my self-induced 12 hour extension of my 23 hour Spam-Ban. I extended it in an effort to recall when exactly it was that I put Spam on the blog, but still ... nothing.

Oh well. No hard feeling. Glad to be back, and I will effort to not get myself banned again.

Meanwhile, we are back to a relatively unthreatering Atlantic Basin. Happy days!
1380. auburn
Quoting 1374. GeorgiaStormz:



All of that is true.
It was also windy and rainy. Miserable couple of days.


Yea same here,even though the temp is low..its still humid and sticky out.
1381. csmda
Quoting 1323. 69Viking:


Definitely! The rain this weekend canceled plans for two days of boating as part of Boat Week here that included a huge boating poker run on Saturday and raft up at Crab Island on Sunday. For the first time in over 20 years of the poker run was canceled. I have a boat that I usually take out at least once every weekend during the summer but this summer have only been able to get out 3 or 4 times. I'm ready for this wet summer to be over the fall hunting season to be here. At least then I can still hunt in the rain in the shooting houses we have at our hunting camp in SW Alabama. A lot more enjoyable than sitting at home watching the radar which has happened a lot this summer.


I actually saw people out at crab island both days this weekend. I live within walking distance (destin)and had to leave to do some school shopping for the kids. Even in the rain and with the water looking like a swamp, they were out there on the boats trying to have a good time, rain and all. The water hasn't been the same on crab island this year. Normally it's beautiful almost every day in the summer but I haven't really seen it look good with all this rain. The other day the water was a deep and dark blue, with a reddish color in the center. Definitely not the norm for crab island.
Anyway, I just finished my first college class just few moments ago, which is Calculus. Met two awesome freshmen, one of them atmospheric sciences major like me. My next class isn't until 1:45 pm so I got time to relax.

Meanwhile, I worked all day long yesterday on this blog on my first Asheville adventure the past week so enjoy!

Bluestorm5's Blog on Adventure in Asheville Part One/a>
Quoting 1359. Bluestorm5:


Here in Asheville, we struggled to get above 60s and actually had a high of 67 just few days ago. Lows were in the 50s as well. Unreal for August anywhere in North Carolian. Today, I actually gave in to hoodie because the rain were cold.

Shirt sleeve weather! 0's, teen's, 20's in your future and possible 15-18 inch spring snow. Just love that area!
Quoting 1377. SouthernIllinois:

Already have a helmet, so I'll grab my mitt to catch it!!


Let's get warmed up
Quoting 1375. SouthernIllinois:

Since you don't come across as one of those on here with a giant inflatable ego head, the helmet should prolly fit, right?? Then I'm game!!

It will fit lol and no I'm not that way. But I do rail against injustice LMBO
Rain chance here dropped to 20% today. Hopefully that pacific moisture funnel over the gulf goes to Texas where they need it. My area, the Northshore of Lake Ponchartrain, was just on the edge of that soggy stuff all weekend.
1386. jpsb
Quoting 1340. Dakster:


Global Cooling? A return of the ice age?

A little early morning humor.

You will get a laugh out of this :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3f_bBMkIP8s


and then there is this

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here



http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/ 26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-globa l-cooling-is-here/
Cool low 70s again here again in SE TX
We had 3 sets of storms cross NE Florida yesterday and it was still hot. Not enough sun to mow the wet grass.
How can we get in on that cool Canadian air list? Then again, Idaho needs it more with the big Beaver Creek fire out there.
Quoting 1359. Bluestorm5:


Here in Asheville, we struggled to get above 60s and actually had a high of 67 just few days ago. Lows were in the 50s as well. Unreal for August anywhere in North Carolian. Today, I actually gave in to hoodie because the rain were cold.


Visted Ashville earlier this year, was advertised as a world class city with a beautiful view and beautiful mountains. The last two were correct, but the city itself was not up to its advertisement.
Quoting 1381. csmda:


I actually saw people out at crab island both days this weekend. I live within walking distance (destin)and had to leave to do some school shopping for the kids. Even in the rain and with the water looking like a swamp, they were out there on the boats trying to have a good time, rain and all. The water hasn't been the same on crab island this year. Normally it's beautiful almost every day in the summer but I haven't really seen it look good with all this rain. The other day the water was a deep and dark blue, with a reddish color in the center. Definitely not the norm for crab island.


I can't believe people were out there Saturday. The high never got above 77 and there was no break in the rain. It had to be cold to be out there but I guess the crazy ones still go! Sunday I thought about going out but I couldn't get a crew together to go.
Quoting 1389. FIUStormChaser:


Visted Ashville earlier this year, was advertised as a world class city with a beautiful view and beautiful mountains. The last two were correct, but the city itself was not up to its advertisement.


hehehe. Not like the shinning jewel of the world like good ole' Miami, huh?
Quoting 1387. RitaEvac:
Cool low 70s again here again in SE TX

That's awesome. We actually got down to 64 the other night here in Austin. I did a double take. it was a little muggy but not bad at all.
Little more than month to go and can call it a season here in TX, Juuuuust about done
This is current temperature at UNC-Asheville at hall where I just took Calculus class (also where my meteorology classes are located in too).

Quoting 1328. TampaSpin:
this season is done.....;)


By my casual estimate, the Season is not yet even officially half way over and, I for one, will certainly NOT be letting down my guard until it is really DONE.
1396. Grothar
Last year on this date, yesterdays temperature was 92. And yesterday it only got to 91. I noticed a big difference.
More of Africa being wrecked by the wave train...

Flash Flood in Nigeria on Monday, 19 August, 2013 at 06:54 (06:54 AM) UTC.
Description
Flood has affected seven local government areas of Yobe State weekend destroying over 300 houses. Leadership correspondent reports that the flood destroyed over 300 houses in seven local government areas including Potiskum, Gashu%u2019a, Nguru, Fika, Gaidam, Damagum and Damaturu, the state capital. It was gathered that the separate incidents occurred weekend following a heavy downpour which resulted in serious flooding in the seven affected local governments. Leadership gathered that in Potiskum the heavy rainfall led to the overflow of a drainage destroying about 192 houses and killing many cows and goats. However, in Gaidam the home town of the state governor, over 40 houses, farmlands and farm produce worth several millions of naira were also washed away by the flood. In Gashu%u2019a , a total of 134 houses were destroyed by the rainfall while many items were missing. In a related development, over 50 houses were destroyed by flood in three wards and villages in Nguru local government area, the residents of the area have confirmed to Leadership. Our correspondent who visited some of the affected areas, reports that in Fika, Damagum and Damaturu the state capital, many house were affected by the flood. The structures in the villages were however spared by the flood as the houses were intact. Some of the victims who spoke with Leadership complained that scores of household items were destroyed by the flood, while countless animals were killed by the flood.




Rmadillo~ Posting weird acronyms that send people googling for nothing during stormy gulf times aren't really appreciated here. Spam wasn't the best choice of words there, take a break would have been better but it wasn't me that gave you your timeout...
Quoting 1389. FIUStormChaser:


Visted Ashville earlier this year, was advertised as a world class city with a beautiful view and beautiful mountains. The last two were correct, but the city itself was not up to its advertisement.
Same reaction as I have with the mountains, views, and city. I love the mountains and the views (see my last blog), but city is just average city but the culture is pretty different and liberal. Food is pretty good too. Interesting weather for sure here.
Quoting 1371. GeoffreyWPB:
Please don't make me come downstairs.



Oh no Mommie Dearest, the meanest lady on earth.

So how long is the tropics gonna be quite? Doesn't it seem a little weird? I hope this isn't what they call "the quite before the storm"

sheri
Quoting 1395. SSideBrac:


By my casual estimate, the Season is not yet even officially half way over and, I for one, will certainly NOT be letting down my guard until it is really DONE.


agreed. It only takes one Charley, K-storm to really make you feel you had the worst hurricane season ever!
Circulation? Nahhhhh

Quoting 1383. seer2012:

Shirt sleeve weather! 0's, teen's, 20's in your future and possible 15-18 inch spring snow. Just love that area!
Yup, it's colder than Raleigh in winter and I grew up in that kind of temperature in Missouri so it's nice to have a real winter back. Asheville averages 16 inches of snow a year which is higher than Raleigh's 5 inches, but that's not lot of snow. Asheville is inconstant with the snow. You can have 30 inches year one year and nothing the next. Campus lies in bottom of valley like rest of Asheville so mountains will have more than the city itself. We'll see.
1403. jpsb
Quoting 1387. RitaEvac:
Cool low 70s again here again in SE TX
I have not yet used my AC here on Galveston bay. A fan in a window is fine. That is unheard of here. Right now its a cool 82 with a nice north wind blowing. Normally we are high 90's low 100s this time of year. I am not complaining :) but I do fear a brutally cold winder. Hope I'm wrong.
Quoting 1401. RitaEvac:
Circulation? Nahhhhh



It'll be named by noon! :)
Special Guest Comment:
"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I had hoped that producing five named storms by the middle of August would be enough to make true fans of tropical weather happy, but it's clear by many of the comments here that I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount. I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a handful of people and cause at best a few million dollars of damage. But please understand: with the floods and the heat waves and the drought and the volcanoes and that Russian meteorite and everything else, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around. Still, I've done in several thousand people elsewhere, and destroyed billions of dollars of property; can't you guys give me at least a little credit?

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still 15 weeks left in this hurricane season (including the worst parts of it), and 2) the 2014 hurricane season starts in roughly 290 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but weak, pathetic, and unentertaining storms, I promise death, destruction, heartbreak, and inconvenience both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature
Hi everyone,
I see the Atlantic is quiet once more.
On the other hand, the Central Pacific, which is usually quiet all year long, has produced two tropical storms in a row, and a third storm might form right behind it. Both Tropical Storm Pewa and Unala have moved to the west of the International Date Line, and are the thirteenth and fourteenth tropical storm of the Western Pacific, respectively. Since they are so close together, they are experiencing the Fujiwhara effect, where Pewa is the dominant system. Pewa is expected to continue WNW-NW, becoming a typhoon during the next day or so, while Unala is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low in less than 24 hours.
i honestly hate the SAL. i would just love to go on a plane and wash it away ^_^
1408. ncstorm
Previously posted:

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
August 15
Wilmington smashed today's old record by five degrees for the coldest high temperature on record: 71 degrees. It's been a unseasonably cool day across both Carolinas with highs in the 70s from Charleston and Columbia to Charlotte and Raleigh. As a warm front approaches from the south this weekend expect gradually warming temperatures along with a good deal of rain.
1409. Dakster
Quoting 1396. Grothar:
Last year on this date, yesterdays temperature was 92. And yesterday it only got to 91. I noticed a big difference.


Me too, I only got a 2nd degree burn when I touched the steering wheel.
1410. ncstorm
Quoting 1405. Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:


wow..Mother Nature is technology savy..who would have thunk it?

dont she know by using a computer she is not helping her carbon footprint case..
Quoting 1401. RitaEvac:
Circulation? Nahhhhh



Does the clock in the upper left part of that image count as circulation?
Rmadillo~ Posting weird acronyms that send people googling for nothing during stormy gulf times aren't really appreciated here. Spam wasn't the best choice of words there, take a break would have been better but it wasn't me that gave you your timeout...

Thanks for the clarification. I did find it odd because I did "take a break" for less than hour, then without another comment I found myself excommunicated for a 23 hour span.

So this leads me to wonder, hopefully not inappropriately so, whether Mod bans are mutually exclusive? Because I felt like I had done my hard time initially, then to re-open the wound with the 23-hour slap was very confusing to me.

I will try and limit my acronym usage in the future, but you Mods need to promise not to gang up on me!

Thanks again for the clarification.
1413. csmda
Quoting 1390. 69Viking:


I can't believe people were out there Saturday. The high never got above 77 and there was no break in the rain. It had to be cold to be out there but I guess the crazy ones still go! Sunday I thought about going out but I couldn't get a crew together to go.


I know! I guess they decided rain wasn't going to ruin their weekend. The vendors out there must be hurting. My friend's cousin is the peanut guy out there. I should have her ask him about the water change and the number of people going out there.
Quoting 1385. StormPro:

It will fit lol and no I'm not that way. But I do rail against injustice LMBO
Rain chance here dropped to 20% today. Hopefully that pacific moisture funnel over the gulf goes to Texas where they need it. My area, the Northshore of Lake Ponchartrain, was just on the edge of that soggy stuff all weekend.


Where do you live on the North Shore? My sister lives 3 blocks from the lake on Jackson Ave. in Mandeville and my dad lives at the Trace in Covington. Looked like ya'll got it in fits and starts over the weekend, but we didn't get a drop over here in the Baton Rouge/Denham Springs area. I'll take it. We got drowned for most of last week up until Thursday from the frontal passage. It finally has dried up around here.
what is what all the record cold going on in the CONUS. Are we looking at a 1979 winter? I really don't mind. Snow is moisture, and pretty. :) So bring it!
1416. VR46L
Quoting 1405. Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:


A rather incendiary comment IMO

Pewa, (ex-)Unala, 92C
Does anyone here have information about the lack of visible images at:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.ht ml

TIA
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1421. VR46L
The only slightly interesting cloud I can find

I am updating my season numbers:

Right two times past 0, to 14
Left past the first number, to 8
Right to 3
Find that west wind out of Barbados interesting, since that graphic, they are now 23mph out of SSW.
1424. Dakster
Nea - If only you could make that a 'sticky'...
Quoting 1415. SouthernIllinois:
what is what all the record cold going on in the CONUS. Are we looking at a 1979 winter? I really don't mind. Snow is moisture, and pretty. :) So bring it!


Nothin' personal SI, but no more snow for us in OK. move here from SoFL, and experience two of the worst snowstorms in OK history.

Really hoping this cool pattern shifts for the winter, for my own selfish, sensitive-to-the-cold reasons. :D
Quoting 1340. Dakster:


Global Cooling? A return of the ice age?

A little early morning humor.
Quoting 1386. jpsb:


To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here



http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/ 26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-globa l-cooling-is-here/

Yes, quite a morning chuckle. Did anyone else see the big whoppers in there about the Little Ice Age ending due to magic and heat being created against the laws of thermodynamics?

Just the sheer ignorance of basic aspects of climate science is enough to get a chuckle out of me, until I realize that decision-makers actually believe this kind of stuff as truthful and more authoritative than actual climate and meteorology papers.
1427. Dakster
FYI - New Blog...
Quoting 1393. RitaEvac:
Little more than month to go and can call it a season here in TX, Juuuuust about done


In #1350, there's another TWave right about where 92 was born. Plus, you'll probably get a little rain when x92L gets to you tomorrow.. I'm even forecasted to get rain from it Thursday, well, 20%.
Quoting 1425. daddyjames:


Nothin' personal SI, but no more snow for us in OK. move here from SoFL, and expeience two of the worst snowstorms in OK history.

Really hoping this cool pattern shifts for the winter, for my own selfish, sensitive-to-the-cold reasons. :D

Hey, not gonna argue with you DJ!! BUT, if I had it my way, I would have temperatures in the 50's and 60's all winter as opposed to my request in my previous post. The way I see it is that I would rather have brutal cold and heavy snow than Ice Storms which is what worries me a lot!!!
Quoting 1373. Bluestorm5:
I promise you it's not normal to be this cold during the day in August in the Southeast with these hot and humid summers the last 5 years I was in state... the highs are below averages most of month and the lows are about average here in Asheville.


"Normal" is misleading. It's only an average. It says little about how much variability there typically is for that time of year. It's actually quite "normal" to have a different value than the normal. This is especially true in winter, but not untrue in summer months, either. For here in southeast Louisiana the actual observed high temperature averages about 8 degrees off of the "normal" during the peak of winter and averages about 2-3 degrees off of the "normal" during the peak of summer.

The climate graph you showed, reproduced here:

actually looks quite normal. Have you looked at these before? Weather typically swings wildly back and forth across the climatic "normal" shaded area, which makes it... well, normal.
Quoting 1426. ScottLincoln:

Yes, quite a morning chuckle. Did anyone else see the big whoppers in there about the Little Ice Age ending due to magic and heat being created against the laws of thermodynamics?

Just the sheer ignorance of basic aspects of climate science is enough to get a chuckle out of me, until I realize that decision-makers actually believe this kind of stuff as truthful and more authoritative than actual climate and meteorology papers.

You gotta lighten up there Scott! It is getting colder out across the globe.
Seriously, the map shows NO SAL over the Antilles....



BUT...



WHERE DOES THAT COME FROM!!
Just kidding Scott. I know you are typing a rubuttal to my statement since you actually think I am serious. Lighten up!
I'm wondering if the SAL map is reliable .... :/
New blog please move to the next one.
1436. jpsb
Quoting 1426. ScottLincoln:

Yes, quite a morning chuckle. Did anyone else see the big whoppers in there about the Little Ice Age ending due to magic and heat being created against the laws of thermodynamics?

Just the sheer ignorance of basic aspects of climate science is enough to get a chuckle out of me, until I realize that decision-makers actually believe this kind of stuff as truthful and more authoritative than actual climate and meteorology papers.


And I thought they were blaming partly The Sun, I also recall Astronomer William Herschel making a similar observation over 200 years ago. Something about the price of wheat and Sun Spots.

"The Little Ice Age, following the historically warm temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from about AD 950 to 1250, has been attributed to natural cycles in solar activity, particularly sunspots. A period of sharply lower sunspot activity known as the Wolf Minimum began in 1280 and persisted for 70 years until 1350. That was followed by a period of even lower sunspot activity that lasted 90 years from 1460 to 1550 known as the Sporer Minimum. During the period 1645 to 1715, the low point of the Little Ice Age, the number of sunspots declined to zero for the entire time. This is known as the Maunder Minimum, named after English astronomer Walter Maunder. That was followed by the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, another period of well below normal sunspot activity."
Quoting 1405. Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:



You automatically correlate wanting excitement and wanting death and destruction.

Every huricane season, people complain about lack of activity. That does not mean they want death and destruction.

Non sequitir......your conclusion does not follow from your premise.


Anyway, I think your overall point is worth making, and yes there is plenty of time left this season.
Quoting 1436. jpsb:


And I thought they were blaming partly The Sun, I also recall Astronomer William Herschel making a similar observation over 200 years ago. Something about the price of wheat and Sun Spots.


The part of the article I was referring to is when they claimed recent warming was just because we are "coming out of the Little Ice Age."
That is a statement without substance, because climate doesnt just "go into" something or "come out" of something. Climate responds to a balance - or imbalance - of forcings. Something caused climate to change to a relatively-cooler period over numerous decades (which humans later decided to call The Little Ice Age). The forcings today are not the same as then, and they didn't change because we were "coming out" of anything. It's not magic... it's physics.