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Gulf of Mexico Disturbance 92L Less Organized; Erin No Threat to Land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2013

Tropical disturbance 92L over the South-Central Gulf of Mexico is looking less organized today due to dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf. Satellite loops show that 92L has lost the well-developed surface circulation it had Friday, and its heavy thunderstorms are elongated and not well-organized, even though wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 30°C. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled and re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 92L taken at 10:30 am EDT Saturday August 17, 2013. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Saturday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Monday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. However, the dry air due to the upper-level low over the Gulf will continue to keep any development slow. A trough of low pressure is over the northern Gulf of Mexico and is bringing high wind shear values of 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Louisiana, Texas, or Northern Mexico on Monday of Tuesday, as suggested by all of our top models. The farther north 92L penetrates, the more difficult intensification becomes, due to higher wind shear values to the north. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a swath of 5+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 40% of developing by Monday, and a 50% chance of developing by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Saturday, August 24, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards from 92L over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a swath of 5+ inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin over the Eastern Atlantic is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is due, in part, to the 25.5 - 26°C waters the storm is traversing, which is a marginal water temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's northwest motion has begun to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) Several of the major global computer models call for Erin to dissipate over the next few days, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever threaten any land areas.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Saturday August 17, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The tropical wave that spawned Erin began over East Africa on August 9, dumping 0.83" of rain on Khartoum, Sudan, worsening a devastating flooding situation there. Periodic torrential rains in Sudan that began on August 2 have triggered flash flooding that has killed 53 people. More rain is on the way for the waterlogged nation, as a series of strong tropical waves associated with an unusually active African monsoon parade across the continent. Several of these tropical waves have the potential to grow into tropical storms once they exit the coast, but the latest 06Z run of the GFS model and 00Z run of the ECMWF model are not calling for any new tropical waves to develop off of the coast of Africa over the next seven days.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci just posted this excellent analysis of Typhoon Utor's eyewall replacement cycle before the storm made landfall in the Philippines last week.


Video 1. Debris flies as Typhoon Utor hits Zhapo, China on 14th August 2013. Video taken by storm chaser James Reynolds, and brought to my attention by wunderground member Robert Speta.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. yoboi
Quoting 1492. hurricanehanna:
nutria look like beavers, except that they have the tail of a rat. They can get rather large...you can actually hunt and trap them here in Louisiana. They overpopulated at one point...not sure if they are under control yet. We would see them at a local park here in town.



I have seen my fair share of beavers....they can get rather large also.....IDK if there is a season to hunt them in louisiana......
Quoting 1487. K8eCane:
I just hope and pray that we dont have any Camilles, Hazels, Hugos or Katrinas.
But i have an uneasy feeling.
And all kidding aside and some of you say hogwash, but we usually do on the years that I have theses uneasy feelings about it.
Just saying. Please dont shoot me.


64 years ago this morning they were pickin' up the pieces...

"...Somebody yelled out at me, country music and company
Kind of makes it on a Sunday afternoon -
Picnic lunches of yesterday should still have a place in your heart today -
Think it over 'cause we'll all be goin' home so soon.

Well, there's just a little bit of magic
In the country music we're singin', so let's begin -
We're bringin' you back down home where the folks are happy,
Sittin' pickin' and grinnin', casually, you and me
We'll pick up the pieces, uh-huh..."
1503. gator23
Quoting 1487. K8eCane:
I just hope and pray that we dont have any Camilles, Hazels, Hugos or Katrinas.
But i have an uneasy feeling.
And all kidding aside and some of you say hogwash, but we usually do on the years that I have theses uneasy feelings about it.
Just saying. Please dont shoot me.


Or Andrews...
Rain just won't stop, I can't beleve all of the standing water. Not only won't we have a tree standing (IF we get a cane) , the skeeters were bad to begin with and now they are gonna be out of control. I was down at Pensacola Beach yesterday and saw some skeeters practicing for an air show. Think they are the replacement for the Blues this year.
invest 94L WILL BE A FISH STORM!
Quoting 1319. JLPR2:
Barely off the coast and it already got tagged and circled.

It has to do with the desperation in the weather community at very high levels.
Watch my friends SAL and ULL take care of him. See you in September....maybe.
Quoting 1489. nrtiwlnvragn:
Low probability but NAVGEM and Basin Scale HWRF showing something in the Bahamas







Perhaps that is why it's been dry here in coastal east central Fl. Nature is getting us ready for a tropical event.

Quoting 1501. yoboi:



I have seen my fair share of beavers....they can get rather large also.....IDK if there is a season to hunt them in louisiana......


Louisiana's open trapping season for Nutria begins November 20th. It's area is Interstate 10 from LA-TX line to Baton Rouge, Interstate 12 from Baton Rouge to Slidell, and Interstate 10 from Slidell to LA-MS line.
1509. Gearsts
Quoting 1470. CybrTeddy:
All of the intensity models available bring 94L to hurricane status in 72-96 hours.
lol they will probably go down.
12z Best Track for 94L.

AL, 94, 2013081812, , BEST, 0, 121N, 200W, 20, 1008, DB
If you did not see this last night

Quoting 1489. nrtiwlnvragn:
Low probability but NAVGEM and Basin Scale HWRF showing something in the Bahamas





Yikes!

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942013) 20130818 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130818 1200 130819 0000 130819 1200 130820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 20.0W 12.4N 22.1W 13.0N 24.0W 13.7N 25.6W
BAMD 12.1N 20.0W 12.3N 22.7W 12.7N 25.3W 13.3N 27.7W
BAMM 12.1N 20.0W 12.3N 22.5W 12.8N 24.9W 13.3N 26.9W
LBAR 12.1N 20.0W 12.3N 23.7W 12.8N 27.5W 13.4N 31.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130820 1200 130821 1200 130822 1200 130823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 27.3W 15.5N 30.6W 16.7N 33.6W 18.0N 36.9W
BAMD 13.7N 30.2W 14.1N 34.8W 14.5N 38.4W 15.2N 41.4W
BAMM 13.8N 28.9W 14.4N 32.5W 15.1N 35.3W 16.2N 38.1W
LBAR 14.1N 35.7W 14.3N 44.0W 11.2N 46.6W 10.4N 47.3W
SHIP 53KTS 71KTS 84KTS 92KTS
DSHP 53KTS 71KTS 84KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 20.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 16.5W DIRM12 = 271DEG SPDM12 = 25KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 9.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting 1495. WxLogic:


I believe they're trying to develop P20L.


That might be an area to watch this week. GFS shows that area also all the way to the Gulf but does not develope it.
13" and counting in Gulf Breeze (30 hr). Cabin fever setting in with the kids who start school in the soggy morning.
Quoting 1469. HurricaneDevo:


If I was a guessing person, based on the join date, post count, and tone of the story, Mr. bieaux may perhaps be a troll of the 12 year old girl story variety from days past.


And you are probably right. My grandfather was a Cajun from the Bayou Pidgeon area, southwest of White Castle. They moved to Plaquemine when he was 3. "eaux" is a common suffix for many Cajun French words and Cajun names like Gautreaux, Simoneaux "eau" is also common, as is "aux", as in the town of Thibodaux.

Some people have a really wacked out sense of humor. By the way, Bayou evolved from the Choctaw word "Bayuk".

Quoting 1509. Gearsts:
lol they will probably go down.
notice the models are too far north and east with 94L. track should be shifted south and west
1519. SLU
New LGEM carries 94L to 91kts in 120 hrs. Highly unlikely given the system's poor state.

V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 40 51 64 77 87 91
Quoting 1508. aislinnpaps:


Louisiana's open trapping season for Nutria begins November 20th. It's area is Interstate 10 from LA-TX line to Baton Rouge, Interstate 12 from Baton Rouge to Slidell, and Interstate 10 from Slidell to LA-MS line.


My friends in Lutcher say that, to be really successful, you have to bait your traps with NutriaSweet ;-)
Good Morning!

7:57 am (11:57 GMT)

Sun rises in Lantana looking over the Intracoastal Waterway.


Dexter exploring among the seagrapes.

No rain again yesterday. Have a great Sunday all!
Quoting 1519. SLU:
New LGEM carries 94L to 91kts in 120 hrs. Highly unlikely given the system's poor state.

V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 40 51 64 77 87 91


Agree. It will be a slow developing process with 94L.
SHIPS says 92kts too towards the end of the forecast period. Unlikely given the state of organization.
Quoting 1518. wunderweatherman123:
notice the models are too far north and east with 94L. track should be shifted south and west

I suspect they're not taking into account the feature to 94L's WSW.
Quoting 1516. EcoLogic:
13" and counting in Gulf Breeze (30 hr). Cabin fever setting in with the kids who start school in the soggy morning.

Movie day?!
I'm off to tennis. It's sunny and a dry 84.3F this morning in ECFL.
1526. Grothar
Quoting 1487. K8eCane:
I just hope and pray that we dont have any Camilles, Hazels, Hugos or Katrinas.
But i have an uneasy feeling.
And all kidding aside and some of you say hogwash, but we usually do on the years that I have theses uneasy feelings about it.
Just saying. Please dont shoot me.


I know what you mean, K8e. Why just this morning I saw two psychics meet in the street. The first one looked for a second and said, "You're fine, how am I?" I'm telling you they know something. :)
Quoting 1491. K8eCane:



If you get the chance mail me. you might can help me figure out what kind of snake i have living near me
sent an email, I have water snakes that resemble cottonmouths
1528. Grothar
Quoting 1473. GeoffreyWPB:
All this talk is making me want to take a dip in the cee-ment pond.


Make sure you take out all the critters first.
Quoting 1520. EcoLogic:


My friends in Lutcher say that, to be really successful, you have to bait your traps with NutriaSweet ;-)
I use watermelons on mine, all natural sugars, no atrifical sweeteners....gotta be healthly when they are on the spit
Quoting 1523. CybrTeddy:
SHIPS says 92kts too towards the end of the forecast period. Unlikely given the state of organization.
the orginization isnt all that bad. it will be slow but i wouldnt be surprised to get a hurricane out of it eventually
A lot of models are forecasting 94L to steadily strengthen over the next 3 days...but it's got so much dry air to contend with, I just...dont know.

I hate this season.  Everything is so damn hard to predict, and every storm keeps running into unexpected atmospheric issues it's JHKGDKHJSAGFDJHGASFD!

Now I don't want anyone to get hurt by any storms, but the weather enthusiast in me gets all giddy with excitement when there is a monster in the Atlantic, especially if there's a chance it comes my way.

This season is GRR worthy so far!

 
1534. Grothar
Quoting 1524. Chicklit:

I suspect they're not taking into account the feature to 94L's WSW.
they have trouble with strong areas of vorticities close to the actual invest. remember isaac had the same problem. they developed a 2nd vorticity and took both out to sea. we know that was wrong
1536. Grothar
Quoting 1508. aislinnpaps:


Louisiana's open trapping season for Nutria begins November 20th. It's area is Interstate 10 from LA-TX line to Baton Rouge, Interstate 12 from Baton Rouge to Slidell, and Interstate 10 from Slidell to LA-MS line.


You can hunt/kill Nutria all year long as they are considered an invasive species. You can only claim the $5 bounty during the trapping season and with a valid trapping licence.
1538. hydrus
Quoting 1534. Grothar:


.... maybe another Daniel (2010)... NEXT!
1540. Gearsts
There's no low there.
1541. Gearsts
Quoting 1539. CaribBoy:


.... maybe another Daniel (2010)... NEXT!
Take it easy, is still so far away and things will change.
Quoting 1525. Chicklit:

Movie day?!
I'm off to tennis. It's sunny and a dry 84.3F this morning in ECFL.


Unfortunately, I think its gonna be laundry day. Three movies yesterday...have a popcorn hangover.
Quoting 1540. Gearsts:
There's no low there.
models initialize it way too far north


Barbuda is about to get soaked again. And they dare saying they are a DRY island!
Quoting 1541. Gearsts:
Take it easy, is still so far away and things will change.


XD yes..
1546. hydrus
Quoting 1526. Grothar:


I know what you mean, K8e. Why just this morning I saw two psychics meet in the street. The first one looked for a second and said, "You're fine, how am I?" I'm telling you they know something. :)
All psychic prognosticators should form a support group for disaster victims well in advance of the actual event....It would prevent screw ups due to poor and rushed planning.
1547. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Rain hasn't stopped since Friday eve here..
5" even since Friday..
More to come..
Temps are a pleasant 72 degrees right now..
No flooding where I'm located..
Just regular stuff..
Drainage here,where I'm at, is great since the repairs and adjustments made after Ivan's problems..

Beach is catching a break right now..



My NWS Outlook..


Quoting 1537. oceanspringsMS:


You can hunt/kill Nutria all year long as they are considered an invasive species. You can only claim the $5 bounty during the trapping season and with a valid trapping licence.


And it's illegal to spotlight and shoot them with a gun between sunset and sunrise.

We have a chance of rain tomorrow. Fingers are crossed!
1549. Kyon5
Quoting 1536. Grothar:

The models will probably start shifting more south and west.
1550. Grothar
It looks like some of the models want to bring Erin back down south and west a bit more.

1551. Gearsts
1553. Gearsts
Rain trolling me.
1554. Grothar
Quoting 1548. aislinnpaps:


And it's illegal to spotlight and shoot them with a gun between sunset and sunrise.

We have a chance of rain tomorrow. Fingers are crossed!


You don't ever serve them for breakfast, do you?
1555. hydrus
I am suspicious of this little blob north of Cuba. I have seen one or two spin up quick here.

1556. Grothar
Quoting 1546. hydrus:
All psychic prognosticators should form a support group for disaster victims well in advance of the actual event....It would prevent screw ups due to poor and rushed planning.


I knew you were going to say that.
1558. hydrus
Quoting 1556. Grothar:


I knew you were going to say that.
Same wavelength or frequency. These things have been around forever..as you know..:)
Quoting 1505. hurricanes2018:
invest 94L WILL BE A FISH STORM!


Most likely but we could get high seas from it on the SE coast! NOW Thats wishcasting for ya!!!
1561. tkdaime
that convection near cuba will that come to s fl
1562. Gearsts
BOOM!
The flooding has gone way down here in PC. The lake that was our yards has disappeared. It appears the rough stuff has moved West and we're just going to get some showers on and off today. I even saw the sun a little while ago.
94L won't be a fish storm S FL needs too watch 94L





Good morning Folks. I see we now have 94L and it may become our first cape Verde Hurricane
what fish storm? we have an invest
1567. Gearsts
Quoting 1564. Tazmanian:
94L won't be a fish storm S FL needs too watch 94L





Why do you think that?
Quoting 1538. hydrus:


What's the spin under Cuba, anyone know?
1570. hydrus
Quoting 1564. Tazmanian:
94L won't be a fish storm S FL needs too watch 94L





Yep..That one might be trouble.
Quoting 1568. GTstormChaserCaleb:



Good consensus at the end of the period for intensity
Quoting 1536. Grothar:
Judging by this mornings run of the GFS more westbound he will come. Erin recurving early will allow the ridge to build in behind it. Also, the size of it may take it some time to develop.
Quoting 1570. hydrus:
Yep..That one might be trouble.



Yea the models show the bend back to the west. Isn't the air stable the farther north it moves ?...It looks like its going the same way Erin is....unless they move farther South
Quoting 1501. yoboi:



I have seen my fair share of beavers....they can get rather large also.....IDK if there is a season to hunt them in louisiana......


At one point there were so many nutria in the canals and drainage systems in Jefferson and Orleans Parish that sheriff's deparment sharpshooters would go out at night and hunt them. They can severely damage the levees and the banks of the canal systems in N.O, causing erosion and, in some places collapses and large holes and were doing so wholesale at one point. Definitely not something the levee system down there needs. They also damage the marshes in the area as well. At one point they were offering bounties based on how many nutria tails you brought in. Don't know if they still do that. Shooting and trapping them is the only method of control. And like rats, they are very prolific breeders.
1575. Grothar
Interesting how all the models are bringing Erin back west.



1576. Grothar
Quoting 1572. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Judging by this mornings run of the GFS more westbound he will come. Erin recurving early will allow the ridge to build in behind it. Also, the size of it may take it some time to develop.


Maybe that is why the earlier models are wanting to move 94L more to the NW.
1577. LargoFl
Quoting 1568. GTstormChaserCaleb:
we really have to watch that one for sure.
non of the models have 94L out to sea..... LGEM model makes sense in the early run. develops into a TS in a couple of days. from there im not sure if it will explode like the LGEM shows but this one is to watch even though GFS doesnt develop it. further south then erin
1580. hydrus
Quoting 1569. redwagon:


What's the spin under Cuba, anyone know?
I was watching it yesterday and didnt think much of it. This morning I looked at it again something grabbed my attention. I thought I saw some rotation with the convection riding the northern coast. My eyes are not as good as they used to be, so I am trying to zoom in on it.
is there any chance Erin could regenerate down the road ?
invest 94L IS moving west at 25 mph!! wow its moving very fast!
Development possible near the Bahamas in 5 days
1584. LargoFl
looks like this season is going to be kinda dangerous for Florida huh..we'll see as time goes by but..this is an excellent time to double check your hurricane kits etc...i just might go out and buy two more sheets of plywood..in case a few get damaged i can repair them quickly.
1585. LargoFl
Quoting 1580. hydrus:
I was watching it yesterday and didnt think much of it. This morning I looked at it again something grabbed my attention. I thought I saw some rotation with the convection riding the northern coast. My eyes are not as good as they used to be, so I am trying to zoom in on it.
a tropical wave passing thru.
Quoting 1583. SFLWeatherman:
Development possible near the Bahamas in 5 days
Didn't realize the HWRF was so aggressive, but remember how it did with 92L? Ack! :P
This is not good

Here is wind shear 24hrs a go




Here is what the wind shear looks like now

Wind shear in the MDR is down too nothing and look how low the shear is 94L will like that



Wind shear is still falling in most areas

Some on here call a anything and everything a fish Storm. I am so ready for this Rain to stop!!
Quoting 1536. Grothar:


That sleeper wave in what used to be in front of Erin can develop near the Bahamas...and then oh mamama!
Quoting 1580. hydrus:
I was watching it yesterday and didnt think much of it. This morning I looked at it again something grabbed my attention. I thought I saw some rotation with the convection riding the northern coast. My eyes are not as good as they used to be, so I am trying to zoom in on it.


Here's what I'm using
1591. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
ADJACENT NEARSHORE AND SURROUNDING OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
APA
Quoting 1581. weatherlover94:
is there any chance Erin could regenerate down the road ?
It's still there TD.
1594. hydrus
Quoting 1575. Grothar:
Interesting how all the models are bringing Erin back west.

Ridge to the north,and it should strengthen.

Ridge to the north,and it should strengthen.
1595. Grothar
Quoting 1589. rmbjoe1954:


That sleeper wave in what used to be in front of Erin can develop near the Bahamas...and then oh mamama!


A madonna mia! Che bondanza!
1596. ncstorm
Good Morning..

Is Levi's CMC working correctly showing the two hurricanes along with the 15 lows?
Quoting 1575. Grothar:
Interesting how all the models are bringing Erin back west.





good morning --- see you found those models again!
Quoting 1575. Grothar:
Interesting how all the models are bringing Erin back west.





That's because Erin is so weak.
Quoting 1594. hydrus:


It may have the potential to have a significant impact on somebody
1600. LargoFl
I know this is far far out but..GFS 220 hours.......
1601. Grothar
Still heavy rains moving into the same region.

1602. Grothar
Quoting 1597. zoomiami:


good morning --- see you found those models again!



Shhhhhh! I never lost them.

#1.worry.ex-erin...
Quoting 1581. weatherlover94:
is there any chance Erin could regenerate down the road ?

If it moves west instead of re-curving yes...which is what the models are showing now oddly enough O.o

Interestingly, if it does recurve, earlier a few models suggested a chance the whole storm could make a big loop in about a week, and re-emerge near the African coast and start all over...though it probably wouldnt be Erin anymore if it redevelops like that...which would be insanely rare.


Quoting 1596. ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Is Levi's CMC working correctly showing the two hurricanes along with the 15 lows?

Nope, it erroneous. You can tell since non of "hurricanes" have any precip associated with them.
1606. Grothar
Quoting 1598. Sfloridacat5:


That's because Erin is so weak.


I guess that is when I fall, it is always to the west.
1607. LargoFl
right into south florida..but i dont listen to anything but 3 days out..
1608. hydrus
Quoting 1590. redwagon:


Here's what I'm using
Might be some rotation there. If it remains just off the coast, it may actually form. Friction from the coastline and high pressure to the north will sometimes add spin to the little guys.
Extremely interesting model intensity convergence here...Though i'm wondering if they are picking up on the actual invest itself, or that phantom low that doesnt exist...
Quoting 1600. LargoFl:
I know this is far far out but..GFS 220 hours.......


That might be that spin under Cuba.
1611. Grothar
1612. GatorWX
Quoting 1601. Grothar:
Still heavy rains moving into the same region.





Perhaps a bit more west and more north-south oriented, but nonetheless.
1613. Gearsts
lol
Quoting 1606. Grothar:


I guess that is when I fall, it is always to the west.


From the NHC site "ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... "

Maybe Erin has a plan to sneak under the radar then attack.
Quoting 1609. RyanSperrey:
Extremely interesting model intensity convergence here...Though i'm wondering if they are picking up on the actual invest itself, or that phantom low that doesnt exist...



We'll see when the other models pick up on it
1616. LargoFl
192 hours GFS continues it westward..........
1617. hydrus
Quoting 1610. redwagon:


That might be that spin under Cuba.
reminds me of how T.S.Marco formed in 1990..
Is that some 8-12 inch stuff coming into Pcola? I feel for them. We had it bad yesterday like that. Stay safe out there.
Im gone to church folks. See you guys this afternoon
1621. LargoFl
alot of Highs around us..UKMET at 72 hours..........
1622. hydrus
Quoting 1599. weatherlover94:


It may have the potential to have a significant impact on somebody
yep...And there is more where Erin came from.
1623. GatorWX
Now if Florida could just get a tropical cyclone to truly exacerbate the issue. Joking, but it seems just a climatological matter of time. Most rain here in sw FL since '03-'04 ish. It was a crazy May-June and early July, then things began to settle down. Has felt "normal" since then. It was raining everyday (just about) and any time of the day for over a month. I know I had over 22 inches in 30 day period at one point and 12 in a week. Been wet to say the least. Now they're pouring water out of Okachobee into the Caloosahatchee which flows north on our coast. Needless to say, the water quality is the worst I can ever remember. I am 28. The branches look like backwater lagoons. Should clear by who knows. After summer would probably be the earliest. Doesn't make for picturesque pictures lol. Fish seem to finally be acclimating, which is a plus. I'm going to use this seemingly dry air today to do some fishing on the kayak before that wave by Cuba heads my way.

1624. LargoFl
1626. Dakster
Quoting 1606. Grothar:


I guess that is when I fall, it is always to the west.


Morning GRO!

What's your latest take on the tropics?

Good thing 92L didn't 'explode' like CNN predicted.
Quoting 1617. hydrus:
reminds me of how T.S.Marco formed in 1990..


Another yet the-very-last-thing-FL-panhandle-needs storm. Sure looked pretty.
Quoting 1613. Gearsts:
lol
HURRICANES EVERYWHERE!
Quoting 1583. SFLWeatherman:
Development possible near the Bahamas in 5 days

Anything near the Bahamas needs to be watched extremely closely, even Dorian found his mojo back there.
Quoting 1626. Dakster:


Morning GRO!

What's your latest take on the tropics?

Good thing 92L didn't 'explode' like CNN predicted.
or majority of the people on here that did
just got back from fishin, got 8 fat specs. breakfast served soon
just read some of the nutria comments and for those who dont know you can trap them all year long here.... they also make good shark bait
94L has an amazing tight spin already....heck it could already be a depression it appears.

Is 94L forecasted to be a fish storm
Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Sunday, 18 August, 2013 at 05:15 (05:15 AM) UTC.
Description
Fire officials are ordering mandatory evacuations for areas of Butte County where a 1,500-acre wildfire was only 25 percent contained Saturday afternoon. The Swedes Fire 10 miles south of Oroville in Northern California has destroyed one home, three outbuildings and several vehicles. More than 200 other structures are threatened. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reports that strong winds overnight drove the fire into steep terrain covered with heavy brush. On Saturday 28 engines with 208 firefighters were fighting the blaze on the ground with the help of two air tankers and one helicopter. Six bulldozers are attempting to cut fire lines to contain the blaze. The Red Cross has set up a shelter for evacuees at Church of the Nazarene in Oroville.
Apparently the Chinese aren't too smart when it comes to the whole, "Stay indoors during the storm" thing.
Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Sunday, 18 August, 2013 at 05:25 (05:25 AM) UTC.
Description
State and federal emergency crews are beefing up efforts to battle a growing wildfire west of Truckee in the Tahoe National Forest. According to the U.S. Forest Service, the fire is burning in a heavily forested area of very steep terrain on Deadwood Ridge, about 17 miles northeast of Foresthill, Calif. USFS estimated its size at 11,950 acres as of 10 a.m. Saturday. Officials attribute the inferno’s growth to hot and dry weather, allowing the blaze to spread along the Deadwood Ridge on the north and south ends. The majority of the fire area is within the North Fork of the Middle Fork of the American River. "The fire is burning in steep terrain in heavy timber, in an area that has not burned in several decades, which is contributing to the heavy smoke," USFS officials said. Roughly 1,400 personnel from Calfire and USFS and other agencies are fighting the fire, including 41 hand crews, 47 engines, 36 water tenders, 19 dozers, eight helicopters and air tankers as available. Smoke jumpers also were called to the scene earlier this week. The fire has destroyed three outbuildings as of Saturday morning, according to USFS. No populated areas, including the Foresthill community, are threatened. Lightning predicted for as early as Sunday afternoon may bring additional complexity and increase the potential for new starts, officials said. Forest Supervisor Tom Quinn has signed an emergency closure order for portions of National Forest System lands within and adjacent to the fire, including access roads and trails surrounding it.
Gotta think Erin will be downgraded soon... an awful long time without convection near the center. LLC/surface center is still vigorous though so it can flare up with the right conditions.
Quoting 1636. RTSplayer:
Apparently the Chinese aren't too smart when it comes to the whole, "Stay indoors during the storm" thing.

The youtubes of people in UTOR was unreal.. I have to question the final death count..


Appears CA has caught a fire..

Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Sunday, 18 August, 2013 at 06:58 (06:58 AM) UTC.
Description
Firefighters were battling a 60-acre wildfire between the Parrotts Ferry Road Bridge and Murphys on Saturday. The fire started about 10 a.m. and was at 10 percent containment as of nearly 7 p.m., according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The bridge crosses New Melones Lake. About 150 firefighters from multiple agencies were on scene. No structures had been threatened, and there was no estimate of when the fire would be contained. Modesto, Ceres and Oakdale were sending brush rigs to the fire.

ERIN
Link

Rough night off shore of the panhandle and Alabama.

Wind from the south in the 25-45 MPH zone for hours.

Seas 8 plus feet.
Erin is getting closer to the warmer water..

1643. 62901IL
Quoting 1641. Abacosurf:
Link

Rough night off shore of the panhandle and Alabama.

Wind from the south in the 25-45 MPH zone for hours.

Seas 8 plus feet.

Wish I could've been there
1644. LargoFl
Barren Erin...

Quoting 1634. weatherman994:
Is 94L forecasted to be a fish storm


No not yet
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 39.3W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting 1645. GeoffreyWPB:
Barren Erin...




It still appears to have a closed low
Quoting 1624. LargoFl:


I hope this is a joke...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED...
PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO
24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD
MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 20.5N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.5N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 20.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
when will the GFDL and HWRF be run on 94L?
1652. LargoFl
12z NAM at 48 hours
1654. Dakster
Lake 'O' fell some more... Down to 15.85 feet now. So the rain hasn't gotten to the Lake yet or it didn't rain enough to overcome the flood gates release.
1655. 62901IL
Quoting 1654. Dakster:
Lake 'O' fell some more... Down to 15.85 feet now. So the rain hasn't gotten to the Lake yet or it didn't rain enough to overcome the flood gates release.

That is great!
I don't like the updated intensity graphic.....they have raised the potential wind speed to near 120 mph in the long range


Link
1657. Dakster
Quoting 1656. weatherlover94:
I don't like the updated intensity graphic.....they have raised the potential wind speed to near 120 mph in the long range


Link


Isn't 94L supposed to harmlessly curve out to sea (Fish)?
12z NAM at 60 hours - the low in the Caribbean is interacting with land (P.R. and D.R.)
1659. Gearsts
This is not good 94L could be are 1st real storm of the season and 94L needs too be watch vary closey
Quoting 1642. Skyepony:
Erin is getting closer to the warmer water..



LOL looking at that graphic, it took me a moment to realize that the black portion was not Africa.

Good morning all, another gorgeous fall-like day , here in Central OK in August none-the-less. Temps in the 70's, sunny and dry. Expected to continue until mid-week, then things will return back to normal.

I know, those of you in the SE Gulf coast really want the some of this, by now. We'll see what we can do..

Interesting that the models appear to be keeping the ATL quiet for a while. I assume that the MJO will move in this region in about a week, and stir things up - both in the ATL and the blog.

Have a great day.
Quoting 1657. Dakster:


Isn't 94L supposed to harmlessly curve out to sea (Fish)?


No no and no wish you guys would stop calling 94L a fish I think none of the mode runs take 94L out too sea
12z NAM at 72 hours
A little Low pops back up just south of D.R.
1664. Dakster
Quoting 1662. Tazmanian:


No no and no wish you guys would stop calling 94L a fish I think none of the mode runs take 94L out too sea


My post ended with a question mark - it wasn't a statement.

So this is one that we should watch closer than we already we going to watch it...
Still looks like there's an area of circulation in 92L at the tail end of the atmospheric river. I'm going to keep my eye on it, it seems like this may be a relocated or new vorticity, and it has placed itself in <10 knot shear, warm waters, and enough moisture to potentially fight through the dry air. What I'm most concerned about though is the steering:



Doesn't look like it's going to move at all. If it does develop, I think the dry air will keep it from getting very strong.
Quoting 1665. RascalNag:
Still looks like there's an area of circulation in 92L at the tail end of the atmospheric river. I'm going to keep my eye on it, it seems like this may be a relocated or new vorticity, and it has placed itself in <10 knot shear, warm waters, and enough moisture to potentially fight through the dry air. What I'm most concerned about though is the steering:



Doesn't look like it's going to move at all. If it does develop, I think the dry air will keep it from getting very strong.


We no longer have 92L
1668. Dakster
Taz,

I hope your post number and the track are not indicative of the future for 94L...

12z NAM at 84 hours. Low is facing the grave yard of lows (Haiti and D.R.). A weak low trying to cross the D.R. is a most likely death.
Where did all of the crappy weather this summer on the SE Gulf Coast come from?? This is getting absurd.
1671. 19N81W
i think this season is interesting in the extreme lack of development even as we are approaching peak. It shows just how inaccurate hurricane season forecasts are and that we really just have no idea how much dust there will be from year to year among other inhibiting factors including the inability to forecast shear etc. As Masters has said no models forecasting any waves for a while as we approach peak it seems that what was supposed to be a very busy season will not. I dont think anyone on here wants dozens of dangerous storms making landfall as that hurts us all in particular our bank accounts (insurance) but the hurricane season is the rainy season for the caribbean and provides us with very important rainfall. Obviously its no ones fault but I feel that these groups that put out these forecasts have a responsibility and making predictions as they do is somewhat irresponsible.
Quoting 1668. Dakster:
Taz,

I hope your post number and the track are not indicative of the future for 94L...



Me two the from post 1666 modes take it wnw too S FL
Quoting 1667. Tazmanian:


We no longer have 92L


Then name it another low, either way I think this is still an area that needs to be watched to make sure we don't get caught with our pants down.
If that Caribbean low (predicted by 12z NAM) can stay just North or just South of the Islands we could have something to watch.
NAM did a good job of predicting 92L. It also didn't fall for the Florida Panhandle predictions. The NAM was consistant that 92L would cross the Yucatan and end up in the BOC.
1675. Patrap
TWC channel says its dry air which is causing all these weak systems. thats not true, its the sinking air from the bermuda high, the SAL is quite common
Quoting 1673. RascalNag:


Then name it another low, either way I think this is still an area that needs to be watched to make sure we don't get caught with our pants down.


Buoy closest to 92L.
Winds have switched from NE (past 2 days) to SW which means the Low has moved west. Still high pressures in the area.
Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.203N 94W
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2013 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSW (200°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.6 F
Dew Point: 78.3 F
Water Temperature: 85.6 F
1678. Gearsts
Quoting 1671. 19N81W:
i think this season is interesting in the extreme lack of development even as we are approaching peak. It shows just how inaccurate hurricane season forecasts are and that we really just have no idea how much dust there will be from year to year among other inhibiting factors including the inability to forecast shear etc. As Masters has said no models forecasting any waves for a while as we approach peak it seems that what was supposed to be a very busy season will not. I dont think anyone on here wants dozens of dangerous storms making landfall as that hurts us all in particular our bank accounts (insurance) but the hurricane season is the rainy season for the caribbean and provides us with very important rainfall. Obviously its no ones fault but I feel that these groups that put out these forecasts have a responsibility and making predictions as they do is somewhat irresponsible.
1679. ncstorm
Quoting 1676. wunderweatherman123:
TWC channel says its dry air which is causing all these weak systems. thats not true, its the sinking air from the bermuda high, the SAL is quite common


We need uppper level support. 92l proved that high SST aren't enough to get it done.
Most people assume that if you put a Low in the GOM this time of year it will explode with development.

But without uppper level support, a storm just can't get going.
1681. Dakster
Gearts - Isn't there a newer run available now?
1682. Gearsts
Quoting 1681. Dakster:
Gearts - Isn't there a newer run available now?
Soon
1683. Dakster
Quoting 1680. Sfloridacat5:


We need uppper level support. 92l proved that high SST aren't enough to get it done.
Most people assume that if you put a Low in the GOM this time of year it will explode with development.

But without uppper level support, a storm just can't get going.


Yes- and once the storm gets going- it becomes a heat pump that just gets stronger as long as the fuel (hot water) is available. The catch is can it get its act together.
1684. Dakster
Quoting 1682. Gearsts:
Soon


I will be very interested when it comes out. Will you post it, when it does?
1685. 19N81W
Quoting 1678. Gearsts:


Gearts I see your lows nicely lined up and the point I am trying to make is that no one knows what a season will hold and making lofty projections only scares people.
1686. barbamz
China: floods in north-east kill 37 after heavy rain - video
Guardian, Sunday 18, 2013
The death toll in north-east China rises to 37 on Sunday after heavy flooding rips through the area. Railways, electricity supplies and farmland have also been severely damaged in the weather, with many having to be evacuated from their homes. In Heilongjiang, authorities say 750m-worth of damage has been done


Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) doesn't show anything much exciting in my eyes.

Nice Sunday to everyone from a thankfully rainy Germany, expecting thunderstorms tomorrow morning, as a cold front from the west will move in above warmer air masses on the ground.
Quoting 1654. Dakster:
Lake 'O' fell some more... Down to 15.85 feet now. So the rain hasn't gotten to the Lake yet or it didn't rain enough to overcome the flood gates release.
I read last night's discussion of flooding from Lake O. While I hope that those 40,000 people who live just south of the lake don't get flooded out, I think we should remember that they aren't just living in a flood plain - they are living in a river bed. In its natural state (ie before European settlers decided to drain the swamp), Lake O collected all the water from the Kissimmee watershed and drained it slowly into the Everglades. It was not connected to the Caloosahatchee or the St Lucie. Building Hoover Dike was like building a dam across a river and then building farms and houses at the base of the dam. Who does that? Sugar companies and a bought- and-paid-for state government.
1688. Grothar
Storms getting stronger along that line

Quoting 1677. Sfloridacat5:


Buoy closest to 92L.
Winds have switched from NE (past 2 days) to SW which means the Low has moved west. Still high pressures in the area.
Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.203N 94W
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2013 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSW (200°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and rising
Air Temperature: 78.6 F
Dew Point: 78.3 F
Water Temperature: 85.6 F


There is no 92L
1690. 62901IL
Quoting 1689. Tazmanian:


There is no 92L

Says so on the map. :)
1691. hydrus
Quoting 1688. Grothar:
Storms getting stronger along that line

I,ll say. Looks a little interesting at the tail too.
Quoting 1688. Grothar:
Storms getting stronger along that line



That is a pretty remarkable fetch of convection stretching all the way from the BOC into the S.E. part of the U.S.
If I didn't know better I'd assume something would spin up out of all that mess. That much convection in the GOM in August is usually a scary thing.
Quoting 1671. 19N81W:
i think this season is interesting in the extreme lack of development even as we are approaching peak. It shows just how inaccurate hurricane season forecasts are and that we really just have no idea how much dust there will be from year to year among other inhibiting factors including the inability to forecast shear etc. As Masters has said no models forecasting any waves for a while as we approach peak it seems that what was supposed to be a very busy season will not. I dont think anyone on here wants dozens of dangerous storms making landfall as that hurts us all in particular our bank accounts (insurance) but the hurricane season is the rainy season for the caribbean and provides us with very important rainfall. Obviously its no ones fault but I feel that these groups that put out these forecasts have a responsibility and making predictions as they do is somewhat irresponsible.
I am sorry but you say the same thing every year.The Atlantic will explode with ton of activity,we are by the 5th letter in the alphabet which is pretty active,and we are going to probably get Fernand,by mid week.Just because a storm doesn`t affect you it does not mean the whole season is inactive.
1694. Dakster
Quoting 1687. FLwolverine:
I read last night's discussion of flooding from Lake O. While I hope that those 40,000 people who live just south of the lake don't get flooded out, I think we should remember that they aren't just living in a flood plain - they are living in a river bed. In its natural state (ie before European settlers decided to drain the swamp), Lake O collected all the water from the Kissimmee watershed and drained it slowly into the Everglades. It was not connected to the Caloosahatchee or the St Lucie. Building Hoover Dike was like building a dam across a river and then building farms and houses at the base of the dam. Who does that? Sugar companies and a bought- and-paid-for state government.


Yes and many old time Floridians have been screaming about it ever since...

But we build below sea level (New Orleans). It gets wiped off the map and we rebuild. We are stubborn species that wants to prove we can mold the laws of nature.
Quoting 1690. 62901IL:

Says so on the map. :)



There is no freaking 92L I will have two re post this
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308180627
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL922013
AL, 92, 2013081312, , BEST, 0, 162N, 802W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2013081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 811W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2013081400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 818W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081406, , BEST, 0, 168N, 827W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 837W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081418, , BEST, 0, 174N, 848W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 178N, 859W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 183N, 868W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 188N, 876W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081518, , BEST, 0, 193N, 884W, 30, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 198N, 891W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 905W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 214N, 913W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081618, , BEST, 0, 215N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081712, , BEST, 0, 207N, 929W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081718, , BEST, 0, 208N, 932W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
1696. 62901IL
Quoting 1695. Tazmanian:



There is no freaking 92L I will have two re post this
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308180627
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL922013
AL, 92, 2013081312, , BEST, 0, 162N, 802W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2013081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 811W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2013081400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 818W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081406, , BEST, 0, 168N, 827W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 837W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081418, , BEST, 0, 174N, 848W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 178N, 859W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 183N, 868W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 188N, 876W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081518, , BEST, 0, 193N, 884W, 30, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 198N, 891W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 905W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 214N, 913W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081618, , BEST, 0, 215N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081712, , BEST, 0, 207N, 929W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081718, , BEST, 0, 208N, 932W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Oh. Well, see ya in heck, 92L.
1697. Dakster
Just call it EX-92L... or the thunderstorm formerly known as 92L.
1698. ncstorm
19N81W, I think this season is interesting at how often people are jumping to conclusions without looking back on previous seasonal activity in August in similar years. Before we should jump to the conclusion that the experts are wrong,  one should consider the following:

  • We're already on five named storms, although none were hurricanes, they were nonetheless tropical cyclones and we're above average from where we should be. Also unlike 2012, none of them were non-tropical in nature. Recall 2010's activity at this point. After Hurricane Alex, nothing major formed with the exception of a few weak tropical cyclones. Then Danielle formed on August 21st and the season simply didn't stop and we had 19 named storms.

  • We are NOT experiencing above average SAL, this is a conclusion based on observation and not evidence. This is supported by the CIMSS Saharan analysis. What we are experiencing is below average vertical instability as the result of the lack of the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase (MJO). The MJO is forecasted to return with a vengeance to our basin by all climate models and the GFS, in return, has been showing consistenty the possibility of the Atlantic basin featuring numerous hurricanes by late-August/early September. Here's the latest SAL analysis.

  • The Atlantic basin also does not have much in the way of above average wind shear, this is yet another observation without evidence. Indeed, when looking at the NOAA TCFP page, one discovers that wind shear across the Atlantic has been trending average-below average, most noticeably being in the Gulf of Mexico.

  • Dr. Masters said the same thing around this time in 2010. If we look back to Dr. Masters' blogs then, we discover that the mindset you're taking about this season existed in abundance then too as well as that season was "hyped up to be super-active" and by this time in August we had nothing. However, like 2010 at this point, the models are indeed beginning to sniff out development and an insane amount of it. You must also consider the fact that Dr. Masters' never forecasts beyond 7 days, as error for beyond that is quite large. The GFS is beginning to sniff out a pattern shift. Although 2013 won't ignite quite around the same time 2010 did, we should consider the possibility that it will ignite with the same vigor.
In conclusion you should really use evidence to support your claims. None of the storms this year have fallen victim to dry air or shear. It's been lack of vertical instability and bad timing that's killed these systems. Dorian and Erin both formed as the result of a Kelvin wave and had virtually no chance of becoming anything significant. As the MJO returns to our basin, vertical instability will become more prudent. I think 15-16 named storms this season is a reasonable expectation.
1700. Gearsts
Quoting 1684. Dakster:


I will be very interested when it comes out. Will you post it, when it does?
Sure
nonsense somethings wrong its almost sept notice the really dry air moving into 94 could have too much convection over africa that drive sand storms offshore. we are in the heart of cv season now.
1702. Grothar
Erin


Quoting 1689. Tazmanian:


There is no 92L


Yes, officially there is no 92L.
But if you look hard enough, you can easily find it still spinning down in the BOC. So "EX-92L" is still alive (barely, but its still alive).

1704. Dakster
Cybr-Very good explanation and post. I like it. You provided evidence to support your position. It also doesn't hurt that I already felt the same way. Can't determine a season's activity until the season is over (or at least past the middle of September) and even then you can't close your eyes. 2005 should have taught everyone that lesson.

Gearts - Thanks. I appreciate it.
Quoting 1671. 19N81W:
i think this season is interesting in the extreme lack of development even as we are approaching peak. It shows just how inaccurate hurricane season forecasts are and that we really just have no idea how much dust there will be from year to year among other inhibiting factors including the inability to forecast shear etc. As Masters has said no models forecasting any waves for a while as we approach peak it seems that what was supposed to be a very busy season will not. I dont think anyone on here wants dozens of dangerous storms making landfall as that hurts us all in particular our bank accounts (insurance) but the hurricane season is the rainy season for the caribbean and provides us with very important rainfall. Obviously its no ones fault but I feel that these groups that put out these forecasts have a responsibility and making predictions as they do is somewhat irresponsible.
Based on the seasons from 1966-2009, roughly 3.5 storms should have developed by this date, or 31.8% of the seasonal total. With five named storms already in the bag, then, that puts 2013 on track to see about 16 named storms in the Atlantic. 16 named storms would put the year at 145% of average. That's far from an "extreme lack of development".

At any rate, a weather or climate forecast is based on the best available data and methodologies, and disseminated to the public with error bars attached for all to see. So saying an entity that makes such a forecast is "irresponsible" doesn't really seem fair...
You no this year we are right on Q with the 2010 hurricane season. In 2010 we where on the F storm and are next name storm would be the F storm from 94L
1707. Patrap
Quoting 1694. Dakster:


Yes and many old time Floridians have been screaming about it ever since...

But we build below sea level (New Orleans). It gets wiped off the map and we rebuild. We are stubborn species that wants to prove we can mold the laws of nature.


Try and run the Country without NOLA.

It cant be done.

That's why they spent 12 Billion since 05 here on Better Protection.

New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman

STRATFOR

Thursday 01 September 2005

The American political system was founded in Philadelphia, but the American nation was built on the vast farmlands that stretch from the Alleghenies to the Rockies. That farmland produced the wealth that funded American industrialization: It permitted the formation of a class of small landholders who, amazingly, could produce more than they could consume. They could sell their excess crops in the east and in Europe and save that money, which eventually became the founding capital of American industry.
But it was not the extraordinary land nor the farmers and ranchers who alone set the process in motion. Rather, it was geography - the extraordinary system of rivers that flowed through the Midwest and allowed them to ship their surplus to the rest of the world. All of the rivers flowed into one - the Mississippi - and the Mississippi flowed to the ports in and around one city: New Orleans. It was in New Orleans that the barges from upstream were unloaded and their cargos stored, sold and reloaded on ocean-going vessels. Until last Sunday, New Orleans was, in many ways, the pivot of the American economy.
For that reason, the Battle of New Orleans in January 1815 was a key moment in American history. Even though the battle occurred after the War of 1812 was over, had the British taken New Orleans, we suspect they wouldn't have given it back. Without New Orleans, the entire Louisiana Purchase would have been valueless to the United States. Or, to state it more precisely, the British would control the region because, at the end of the day, the value of the Purchase was the land and the rivers - which all converged on the Mississippi and the ultimate port of New Orleans. The hero of the battle was Andrew Jackson, and when he became president, his obsession with Texas had much to do with keeping the Mexicans away from New Orleans.
During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn't come in, and the agricultural wealth wouldn't flow out. Alternative routes really weren't available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans was the prize.
Last Sunday, nature took out New Orleans almost as surely as a nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina's geopolitical effect was not, in many ways, distinguishable from a mushroom cloud. The key exit from North America was closed. The petrochemical industry, which has become an added value to the region since Jackson's days, was at risk. The navigability of the Mississippi south of New Orleans was a question mark. New Orleans as a city and as a port complex had ceased to exist, and it was not clear that it could recover.
The ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans, which run north and south of the city, are as important today as at any point during the history of the republic. On its own merit, the Port of South Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons a year, of which more than half are agricultural products - corn, soybeans and so on. A larger proportion of US agriculture flows out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 57 million tons, comes in through the port - including not only crude oil, but chemicals and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on.
A simple way to think about the New Orleans port complex is that it is where the bulk commodities of agriculture go out to the world and the bulk commodities of industrialism come in. The commodity chain of the global food industry starts here, as does that of American industrialism. If these facilities are gone, more than the price of goods shifts: The very physical structure of the global economy would have to be reshaped. Consider the impact to the US auto industry if steel doesn't come up the river, or the effect on global food supplies if US corn and soybeans don't get to the markets.
The problem is that there are no good shipping alternatives. River transport is cheap, and most of the commodities we are discussing have low value-to-weight ratios. The US transport system was built on the assumption that these commodities would travel to and from New Orleans by barge, where they would be loaded on ships or offloaded. Apart from port capacity elsewhere in the United States, there aren't enough trucks or rail cars to handle the long-distance hauling of these enormous quantities - assuming for the moment that the economics could be managed, which they can't be.
The focus in the media has been on the oil industry in Louisiana and Mississippi. This is not a trivial question, but in a certain sense, it is dwarfed by the shipping issue. First, Louisiana is the source of about 15 percent of US-produced petroleum, much of it from the Gulf. The local refineries are critical to American infrastructure. Were all of these facilities to be lost, the effect on the price of oil worldwide would be extraordinarily painful. If the river itself became unnavigable or if the ports are no longer functioning, however, the impact to the wider economy would be significantly more severe. In a sense, there is more flexibility in oil than in the physical transport of these other commodities.
There is clearly good news as information comes in. By all accounts, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which services supertankers in the Gulf, is intact. Port Fourchon, which is the center of extraction operations in the Gulf, has sustained damage but is recoverable. The status of the oil platforms is unclear and it is not known what the underwater systems look like, but on the surface, the damage - though not trivial - is manageable.
The news on the river is also far better than would have been expected on Sunday. The river has not changed its course. No major levees containing the river have burst. The Mississippi apparently has not silted up to such an extent that massive dredging would be required to render it navigable. Even the port facilities, although apparently damaged in many places and destroyed in few, are still there. The river, as transport corridor, has not been lost.
What has been lost is the city of New Orleans and many of the residential suburban areas around it. The population has fled, leaving behind a relatively small number of people in desperate straits. Some are dead, others are dying, and the magnitude of the situation dwarfs the resources required to ameliorate their condition. But it is not the population that is trapped in New Orleans that is of geopolitical significance: It is the population that has left and has nowhere to return to.
The oil fields, pipelines and ports required a skilled workforce in order to operate. That workforce requires homes. They require stores to buy food and other supplies. Hospitals and doctors. Schools for their children. In other words, in order to operate the facilities critical to the United States, you need a workforce to do it - and that workforce is gone. Unlike in other disasters, that workforce cannot return to the region because they have no place to live. New Orleans is gone, and the metropolitan area surrounding New Orleans is either gone or so badly damaged that it will not be inhabitable for a long time.
It is possible to jury-rig around this problem for a short time. But the fact is that those who have left the area have gone to live with relatives and friends. Those who had the ability to leave also had networks of relationships and resources to manage their exile. But those resources are not infinite - and as it becomes apparent that these people will not be returning to New Orleans any time soon, they will be enrolling their children in new schools, finding new jobs, finding new accommodations. If they have any insurance money coming, they will collect it. If they have none, then - whatever emotional connections they may have to their home - their economic connection to it has been severed. In a very short time, these people will be making decisions that will start to reshape population and workforce patterns in the region.
A city is a complex and ongoing process - one that requires physical infrastructure to support the people who live in it and people to operate that physical infrastructure. We don't simply mean power plants or sewage treatment facilities, although they are critical. Someone has to be able to sell a bottle of milk or a new shirt. Someone has to be able to repair a car or do surgery. And the people who do those things, along with the infrastructure that supports them, are gone - and they are not coming back anytime soon.
It is in this sense, then, that it seems almost as if a nuclear weapon went off in New Orleans. The people mostly have fled rather than died, but they are gone. Not all of the facilities are destroyed, but most are. It appears to us that New Orleans and its environs have passed the point of recoverability. The area can recover, to be sure, but only with the commitment of massive resources from outside - and those resources would always be at risk to another Katrina.
The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces. It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities, and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United States.
Let's go back to the beginning. The United States historically has depended on the Mississippi and its tributaries for transport. Barges navigate the river. Ships go on the ocean. The barges must offload to the ships and vice versa. There must be a facility to empower this exchange. It is also the facility where goods are stored in transit. Without this port, the river can't be used. Protecting that port has been, from the time of the Louisiana Purchase, a fundamental national security issue for the United States.
Katrina has taken out the port - not by destroying the facilities, but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable. That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the utility of its river transport system - the foundation of the entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.
It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem. Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United States needs a city right there.
New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.
Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place.
1708. Patrap
Anything else?

; )
Can't see any tropical system being able to overtake all the dry air and shear in the NW GOM this year. Hope that pattern holds until September - SW LA resident here and hoping for no canes this season.
My uncle flip always ses that it doesnt matter if your one of those weather experts or just someone like in here. NO one knows what will happen on any given day or month. we dont live here by forcasts. we look to the shies and animals.. when the crawdads are active its gonna be nice when they go into hiding watch out.
1711. 62901IL
Quoting 1708. Patrap:
Anything else?

; )

Nothing, just that your last post was really long.
;)
Quoting 1699. CybrTeddy:
19N81W,I think this season is interesting at how often people are jumping to conclusions without looking back on previous seasonal activity in August in similar years. Before we should jump to the conclusion that the experts are wrong, one should consider the following:

  • We're already on five named storms, although none were hurricanes, they were nonetheless tropical cyclones and we're above average from where we should be. Also unlike 2012, none of them were non-tropical in nature. Recall 2010's activity at this point. After Hurricane Alex, nothing major formed with the exception of a few weak tropical cyclones. Then Danielle formed on August 21st and the season simply didn't stop and we had 19 named storms.

  • We are NOT experiencing above average SAL, this is a conclusion based on observation and not evidence. This is supported by the CIMSS Saharan analysis. What we are experiencing is below average vertical instability as the result of the lack of the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase (MJO). The MJO is forecasted to return with a vengeance to our basin by all climate models and the GFS, in return, has been showing consistenty the possibility of the Atlantic basin featuring numerous hurricanes by late-August/early September. Here's the latest SAL analysis.

  • The Atlantic basin also does not have much in the way of above average wind shear, this is yet another observation without evidence. Indeed, when looking at the NOAA TCFP page, one discovers that wind shear across the Atlantic has been trending average-below average, most noticeably being in the Gulf of Mexico.

  • Dr. Masters said the same thing around this time in 2010. If we look back to Dr. Masters' blogs then, we discover that the mindset you're taking about this season existed in abundance then too as well as that season was "hyped up to be super-active" and by this time in August we had nothing.However, like 2010 at this point, the models are indeed beginning to sniff out development and an insane amount of it. You must also consider the fact that Dr. Masters' never forecasts beyond 7 days, as error for beyond that is quite large. The GFS is beginning to sniff out a pattern shift. Although 2013 won't ignite quite around the same time 2010 did, we should consider the possibility that it will ignite with the same vigor.
In conclusion you should really use evidence to support your claims. None of the storms this year have fallen victim to dry air or shear. It's been lack of vertical instability and bad timing that's killed these systems. Dorian and Erin both formed as the result of a Kelvin wave and had virtually no chance of becoming anything significant. As the MJO returns to our basin, vertical instability will become more prudent. I think 15-16 named storms this season is a reasonable expectation.

You tell them Cybrteddy! I doubt "They" will listen but, you can never be more clear about how we really haven't had the right spark to begin the peak season.
The MJO Returning just in time for Peak season will likely start the wave train up as the GFS has been consistently showing at the end of it's Runs.
Quoting 1709. mynameispaul:
Can't see any tropical system being able to overtake all the dry air and shear in the NW GOM this year. Hope that pattern holds until September - SW LA resident here and hoping for no canes this season.
Going to shamelessly promote myself here but I think you should read my previous post for an explanation otherwise. 
1714. Patrap
Quoting 1711. 62901IL:

Nothing, just that your last post was really long.
;)


Maybe explore the "Hide" feature then.

; )
Quoting 1699. CybrTeddy:
19N81W, I think this season is interesting at how often people are jumping to conclusions without looking back on previous seasonal activity in August in similar years. Before we should jump to the conclusion that the experts are wrong,  one should consider the following:

  • We're already on five named storms, although none were hurricanes, they were nonetheless tropical cyclones and we're above average from where we should be. Also unlike 2012, none of them were non-tropical in nature. Recall 2010's activity at this point. After Hurricane Alex, nothing major formed with the exception of a few weak tropical cyclones. Then Danielle formed on August 21st and the season simply didn't stop and we had 19 named storms.

  • We are NOT experiencing above average SAL, this is a conclusion based on observation and not evidence. This is supported by the CIMSS Saharan analysis. What we are experiencing is below average vertical instability as the result of the lack of the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase (MJO). The MJO is forecasted to return with a vengeance to our basin by all climate models and the GFS, in return, has been showing consistenty the possibility of the Atlantic basin featuring numerous hurricanes by late-August/early September. Here's the latest SAL analysis.

In conclusion you should really use evidence to support your claims. None of the storms this year have fallen victim to dry air or shear. It's been lack of vertical instability and bad timing that's killed these systems. Dorian and Erin both formed as the result of a Kelvin wave and had virtually no chance of becoming anything significant. As the MJO returns to our basin, vertical instability will become more prudent. I think 15-16 named storms this season is a reasonable expectation.

This is a fantastic post!

All great points, Ted.

I agree that the thermodynamic instability profile has been less than ideal. The same consistent atlantic ridging profile that causes much concern for the tracks of storms is also the feature causing them to be less intense so far this season. The ridging causes faster than average trade winds(hampering LLV) and compressional heating to the atmosphere(lowering instability).
What is the latest MJO forecast?

1717. 62901IL
Quoting 1714. Patrap:


Maybe explore the "Hide" feature then.

; )

That's what I did. You are a really good person.
1718. flcanes
Quoting 1678. Gearsts:

Oh god no get that hurricane out of there!
Quoting 1702. Grothar:
Erin




Is you thinking what eyes thinking?
FIM 8 210hrs.



FIM 8 210hrs PW



This just appears from just south of the Bahamas.
Quoting 1710. bieaxbillybob:
My uncle flip always ses that it doesnt matter if your one of those weather experts or just someone like in here. NO one knows what will happen on any given day or month. we dont live here by forcasts. we look to the shies and animals.. when the crawdads are active its gonna be nice when they go into hiding watch out.

Good to know. I'll make sure to email the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, and tell them to shut down everything and burn all the records and erase the database, I'm sure that should help save more lives.
1722. 62901IL
Quoting 1721. TylerStanfield:

Good to know. I'll make sure to email the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, and tell them to shut down everything and burn all the records and erase the database, I'm sure that should help save more lives.

No, don't do that, I like to look at the database that is avaliable to the public.

Quoting 1720. AussieStorm:
FIM 8 210hrs.



FIM 8 210hrs PW



This just appears from just south of the Bahamas.
*Looks* like it's either 94L, more likely, a piece of energy that develops from the ITCZ in front of 94L as you can see the weak surface trough that'll be 94L if one believes the GFS.
Quoting 1715. seminolesfan:

This is a fantastic post!

All great points, Ted.

I agree that the thermodynamic instability profile has been less than ideal. The same consistent atlantic ridging profile that causes much concern for the tracks of storms is also the feature causing them to be less intense so far this season. The ridging causes faster than average trade winds(hampering LLV) and compressional heating to the atmosphere(lowering instability).

It hasn't necessarily been the Trade winds hampering the development and further intensification of systems, for example, Tropical Storm Dorian actually was able to intensify and develop a Mid-level Eyewall for a brief time as it had the Trade winds further to the north enhancing vorticity around in the Deep tropics. Though the biggest issue by far this season has been the Low Instability across the basin due to the same, strong high pressure system which went from Aiding Dorian to killing Dorian.
This Low Instability should be much less of an Issue as the MJO Returns for Peak season. We could see us some pretty Long-tracking Major Cape Verde Hurricanes this season if we hit a sweet spot in conditions across the basin.
The FIM 9 Zeus brings the same Bahamas disturbance over Florida and into the GOM



FIM 7 has an interesting feature off the La/MS coast



Bahamas feature as seen by the FIM 7

1726. Gearsts
Hey guys here here I have arrived just checking in anyway should be back home by 5 or 6 pm so see 94L is up and Erin is moving W with maybe SW jogs but still W our AOI near 50W still going its expect to be in the SE Carib soon
1728. Gearsts
69hr 12z


6z
Quoting 1710. bieaxbillybob:
My uncle flip always ses that it doesnt matter if your one of those weather experts or just someone like in here. NO one knows what will happen on any given day or month. we dont live here by forcasts. we look to the shies and animals.. when the crawdads are active its gonna be nice when they go into hiding watch out.


That may be a good way to look at perhaps short-term weather, but if you have a hurricane a few hundred miles off the coast from you and heading in your direction, by the time the animals react and the skies take a turn for the worst, it's too late for you to do anything and there's the potential that not only you, but your friends, family and many others would be in real danger.

Weather experts and their computing power have helped notify people of extreme weather events and saved many lives by doing so. And they're good enough to know what will happen in about a 24 hour period of time. There's still more work to do though in getting more accurate forecasts, especially in the long term. But so far I think we've been heading in the right direction and hope that we will continue to do so!
1731. mrmombq
Quoting 1695. Tazmanian:



There is no freaking 92L I will have two re post this
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308180627
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL922013
AL, 92, 2013081312, , BEST, 0, 162N, 802W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2013081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 811W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2013081400, , BEST, 0, 165N, 818W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081406, , BEST, 0, 168N, 827W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 837W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081418, , BEST, 0, 174N, 848W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 178N, 859W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 183N, 868W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 188N, 876W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081518, , BEST, 0, 193N, 884W, 30, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 198N, 891W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 905W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 214N, 913W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081618, , BEST, 0, 215N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081712, , BEST, 0, 207N, 929W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081718, , BEST, 0, 208N, 932W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
true
Quoting 1725. AussieStorm:
The FIM 9 Zeus brings the same Bahamas disturbance over Florida and into the GOM



FIM 7 has an interesting feature off the La/MS coast



Bahamas feature as seen by the FIM 7


It almost looks like a BAMS, BAMM & BAMD scenario with the BAMD being more poleward and going thru the Bahamas, BAMM a bit weaker and heading further west and BAMS weaker yet and heading even further westbound. Of course this is just a quick interpretation on my end and doesn't take into account the high in the ATL and where it would.
Does that sound kinda right to you?
1733. Grothar
Quoting 1719. GeoffreyWPB:


Is you thinking what eyes thinking?


Yes, but I'm not saying a word anymore. Let them fight it out on the blog. I'm finished giving hints and being insulted. :)
Quoting 1733. Grothar:


Yes, but I'm not saying a word anymore. Let them fight it out on the blog. I'm finished giving hints and being insulted. :)

Any other blob news you got for us today, Gro?
1735. Grothar
Quoting 1723. CybrTeddy:

*Looks* like it's either 94L, more likely, a piece of energy that develops from the ITCZ in front of 94L as you can see the weak surface trough that'll be 94L if one believes the GFS.


Hey Teddy, the next time I have an argument with Mrs. Grothar, you want to come over?
1736. Gearsts
78hr
Quoting 1724. TylerStanfield:

It hasn't necessarily been the Trade winds hampering the development and further intensification of systems, for example, Tropical Storm Dorian actually was able to intensify and develop a Mid-level Eyewall for a brief time as it had the Trade winds further to the north enhancing vorticity around in the Deep tropics. Though the biggest issue by far this season has been the Low Instability across the basin due to the same, strong high pressure system which went from Aiding Dorian to killing Dorian.
This Low Instability should be much less of an Issue as the MJO Returns for Peak season. We could see us some pretty Long-tracking Major Cape Verde Hurricanes this season if we hit a sweet spot in conditions across the basin.


I was speaking of the season in totality to this point.

At different times we have seen each of these 'symptoms' affect waves/pouches/cyclones this year.

I was simply pointing out that both 'symptoms' are tied to the 'cause' of significant atl ridging.
Which is also a frequent blog conversation topic relating to general storm tracking patterns for the season in general.

Goodnight all. Stay dry, cool and calm.
Catch ya'll in the morning
1739. 62901IL
Quoting 1738. AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Stay dry, cool and calm.
Catch ya'll in the morning

Buh-bye!
1740. OhNoLa
Quoting 1721. TylerStanfield:

Good to know. I'll make sure to email the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, and tell them to shut down everything and burn all the records and erase the database, I'm sure that should help save more lives.


I think he's the same doofus who went by a name that had buzzard (buzzardsbreath?) and who kept going on about how he could tell what was going to happen based on ants.
1741. Grothar
Quoting 1734. TylerStanfield:

Any other blob news you got for us today, Gro?


Elongated blob.

1742. Gearsts
96hr
1743. 62901IL
Quoting 1741. Grothar:


Elongated blob.


This is, by my definition of a blob. a blobulous blob. What do you say, Grothar?
1744. Gearsts
111hr
1745. Dakster
Quoting 1735. Grothar:


Hey Teddy, the next time I have an argument with Mrs. Grothar, you want to come over?


Gro- Are you two going to have a bromance?
The GFS has this system developing in the next 3-5 days...




What is worrisome for me at the present time is how Low Instability has been in the World's Oceans in general for the past couple of years. There has been a serious lack of Strong, Violent Storms (Not to say that it's a bad thing) which leads me to believe that there has to be some kind of balance to this phenomenon. Basically, if were experiencing low instability now in the World's oceans, there has to be some way for the Earth to be able to release this heat and distribute it. I find it just strange for us to be in this predicament without some kind of resolution yet to be seen, meaning we may see something happen globally in the coming years where we see higher amounts of instability globally, or see strong Heat waves or massive floods.
Whether you believe in Global Warming or not, the Climate is out of wack right now.




Quoting 1738. AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Stay dry, cool and calm.
Catch ya'll in the morning

Goodnight Aussie.
1748. Grothar
Quoting 1737. seminolesfan:


I was speaking of the season in totality to this point.

At different times we have seen each of these 'symptoms' affect waves/pouches/cyclones this year.

I was simply pointing out that both 'symptoms' are tied to the 'cause' of significant atl ridging.
Which is also a frequent blog conversation topic relating to general storm tracking patterns for the season in general.


Yes, I do agree the Positive NAO has really done a Number on the pattern and conditions for storms this year. But with a Positive NAO, you also have the danger of Long-Tracking storms making it all the way across the Atlantic During Peak Season.
1750. Gearsts
123hr
1751. Grothar
Quoting 1745. Dakster:


Gro- Are you two going to have a bromance?


No he presents an argument so well, it might take some of the heat off of me.

Quoting 1735. Grothar:


Hey Teddy, the next time I have an argument with Mrs. Grothar, you want to come over?
Does she think the season's a bust too? :)
1753. Gearsts
132hr
1754. Dakster
Quoting 1751. Grothar:


No he presents an argument so well, it might take some of the heat off of me.


Gotcha... (Btw, not that there is anything wrong with that)

Looking like we might be biting our nails in early September.
Quoting 1730. Envoirment:


T... by the time the animals react and the skies take a turn for the worst, it's too late for you to do anything and there's the potential that not only you, but your friends, family and many others would be in real danger.


If a big storm is coming nature reacts in the 2-3 days before & not just animals but plants..certain things in swamps will bloom, struggling pines die. Even the Seminole Indians managed to flee the glades before those storms in the late 1920's. They knew what was happening because they were a part & an observer of nature.

That's one great thing about this community. Between the blogs, PWS & the photo side you get a unique look at conditions or nature around and beyond your door or travels..plus nexrad and colorful graphics..
1756. Gearsts
138hr
1757. Grothar
Quoting 1752. CybrTeddy:

Does she think the season's a bust too? :)



The only thing she ever asks me about is if it's going to rain. Other than that she could care less. She has, on occasion, called me a blob.
1758. Dakster
I've noticed things like that Skyepony. Especially the birds - they seem leave well in advance. The other subtle things about plants, us city folk have a hard time noticing.

Thanks for the posts of the GFS Gearsts.
1759. Gearsts
144hr
144 Hours out, the GFS says "SAL Who?"
1761. Grothar
Quoting 1758. Dakster:
I've noticed things like that Skyepony. Especially the birds - they seem leave well in advance. The other subtle things about plants, us city folk have a hard time noticing.

Thanks for the posts of the GFS Gearsts.


For every hurricane I can remember, the birds all left the day before. Other animals get very quiet. Ducks especially, will all hover together.
Quoting 1749. TylerStanfield:

Yes, I do agree the Positive NAO has really done a Number on the pattern and conditions for storms this year. But with a Positive NAO, you also have the danger of Long-Tracking storms making it all the way across the Atlantic During Peak Season.

Yes and yes. I agree totally with both.

Despite the thermodynamic issues with the season thus far, I still think we will see a hyper-active period (or two!) where a large chunk of names will be issued.
1764. Gearsts
Is alive!
1765. Grothar
Well, at the moment it looks like Erin is going to dip south and west and 94L want to go NW. We may have a Fujiyama effect soon.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
PatTrap

Thank you for your post @ NOLA
Counting on you to give the heads up...should we need to run for dear life... have elderly folks here. Exhausted from being hyperviligant on the tropics. Citzens just raised wind and hail again...contemplating a move north of da lake
1768. Grothar
Giant flareup of Erin taking place.


Quoting 1699. CybrTeddy:
19N81W, I think this season is interesting at how often people are jumping to conclusions without looking back on previous seasonal activity in August in similar years. Before we should jump to the conclusion that the experts are wrong,  one should consider the following:

  • We're already on five named storms, although none were hurricanes, they were nonetheless tropical cyclones and we're above average from where we should be. Also unlike 2012, none of them were non-tropical in nature. Recall 2010's activity at this point. After Hurricane Alex, nothing major formed with the exception of a few weak tropical cyclones. Then Danielle formed on August 21st and the season simply didn't stop and we had 19 named storms.

  • We are NOT experiencing above average SAL, this is a conclusion based on observation and not evidence. This is supported by the CIMSS Saharan analysis. What we are experiencing is below average vertical instability as the result of the lack of the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase (MJO). The MJO is forecasted to return with a vengeance to our basin by all climate models and the GFS, in return, has been showing consistenty the possibility of the Atlantic basin featuring numerous hurricanes by late-August/early September. Here's the latest SAL analysis.

  • The Atlantic basin also does not have much in the way of above average wind shear, this is yet another observation without evidence. Indeed, when looking at the NOAA TCFP page, one discovers that wind shear across the Atlantic has been trending average-below average, most noticeably being in the Gulf of Mexico.

  • Dr. Masters said the same thing around this time in 2010. If we look back to Dr. Masters' blogs then, we discover that the mindset you're taking about this season existed in abundance then too as well as that season was "hyped up to be super-active" and by this time in August we had nothing. However, like 2010 at this point, the models are indeed beginning to sniff out development and an insane amount of it. You must also consider the fact that Dr. Masters' never forecasts beyond 7 days, as error for beyond that is quite large. The GFS is beginning to sniff out a pattern shift. Although 2013 won't ignite quite around the same time 2010 did, we should consider the possibility that it will ignite with the same vigor.
In conclusion you should really use evidence to support your claims. None of the storms this year have fallen victim to dry air or shear. It's been lack of vertical instability and bad timing that's killed these systems. Dorian and Erin both formed as the result of a Kelvin wave and had virtually no chance of becoming anything significant. As the MJO returns to our basin, vertical instability will become more prudent. I think 15-16 named storms this season is a reasonable expectation.



Hear! Hear! Very aptly said. Nice, CT. Thanks.
1770. Levi32
With high pressures over the SE US for the next week, a couple of these waves coming through the Caribbean and north of the Caribbean are making the pattern look "fishy" in the Gulf of Mexico region again about a week from now, at least on the GFS. The pattern will at least remain unstable there, meaning a wary eye should be kept on these waves. I think this one here coming into the southern gulf is actually the ITCZ low that the CMC was taking north of the Caribbean, but won't actually go north.

Quoting 1770. Levi32:
With high pressures over the SE US for the next week, a couple of these waves coming through the Caribbean and north of the Caribbean are making the pattern look "fishy" in the Gulf of Mexico region again about a week from now, at least on the GFS. The pattern will at least remain unstable there, meaning a wary eye should be kept on these waves. I think this one here is actually the ITCZ low that the CMC was taking north of the Caribbean, but won't actually go north.



New blog folks!
Thanks Pat for the, "Why NOLA matters" post. Was about to respond to that when my 87yr old Mamma rang me on the phone. Just getting back here....
Quoting 1741. Grothar:


Elongated blob.

Wouldn`t it be colfronted blob?
12 GFS XD XD XD .... FANTASY LAND THOUGH
Quoting 1774. CaribBoy:
12Z GFS XD XD XD .... FANTASY LAND THOUGH
Link

Still winds gusting over 40 MPH in the gulf just south of AL. and FL. pan handle.. Over 10 hours winds from 25 to 45 MPH.

Fairly potent!!
1777. vis0
92L's moisture plums in BWWB
benefit (CLUEs):

the darkest in WV images has the "thickest" vapor.

IMPORTANT keep in mind the Z time as to sunrise or sunset. As any visible SAT image if its too dark i push it to present max detail. If that's misread one thinks cloud tops are higher than they really are.

by reading the speed of the to N fro W-B-W-B B-W-B-W gives one a more precise progression of the clouds/cloud tops.

Purposefully remove NASA symbol & country highlighters for the water vapor slides in case one decides to pause VID one can tell Vis from WV slides.