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92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.
2003. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
If you went through Mitch or Georges I bet you wouldn't want nothing to do with a major hurricane anymore and would be fine with all of the majors staying away and going OTS. Same goes for Andrew and Katrina in the US.

Yeah, my worst storm was Ivan (2004). I was amazed at the level damage that I saw despite not getting a direct impact.I would not want to experience a major hurricane any time soon, especially in the current economic climate.
Quoting 1998. KoritheMan:




Thanks dude. So an elongated vort at 15 W and then one further north but at 10 W. hmmm. Looks like that area has some consolidation to do.
2005. nigel20
Quoting LAbonbon:
Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.

Good night LA! I hope that you'll enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Quoting 1999. stormchaser19:



Thx!
Quoting 1818. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dangerous pattern continues to show up on the long range GFS:



That setup has Isabel written all over it. Very strong high to the north, only place it can go is barrel into the coast.

Side note, approaching the 10 year anniversary of that storm. Still fresh in my mind as we had the eyewall remnants pass over us. Would never forget it.
Quoting 2002. LAbonbon:
Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.


"Existential"? That's a word I don't see thrown around very often around here.

Consider me impressed. :)
2009. robj144
Quoting 1995. SunriseSteeda:


When I went back to the university to finish my BS in Computer Science, I found that all my courses after my AA had expired (being over 7 years old)*.

So I sat down with a stack of colored sticky papers and sharpies and identified every core course I had to take, as well as the handful of electives I wanted to take. After consulting current semester and previous semesters' departmental schedules, I was able to get an idea of when courses were typically offered. You can't skip this step, since some courses as you approach senior/graduate status are offered only every Spring, for example.

Anyway, after figuring out the timing of the offerings, the prerequisites need for each course, etc, I was able to plot my path well ahead of time for my BS and finished with exactly the courses I needed in the shortest possible time.

I highly recommend it to every new college student. At the very least, it makes you examine what you need to graduate and sticks it somewhere in the back of your head. At the best, it gives you control over your own path through college, with your Undegraduate Advisor filling only a *tada* advisory role :)


(Apologies for the off-topic rants guys, but I have noticed a *lot* of young students post here, and this is useful for all students, no matter what level of education you're at!)



Do you teach at FAU?
DMAX is really helping Erin at this hour.

Quoting 1995. SunriseSteeda:


When I went back to the university to finish my BS in Computer Science, I found that all my courses after my AA had expired (being over 7 years old)*.

So I sat down with a stack of colored sticky papers and sharpies and identified every core course I had to take, as well as the handful of electives I wanted to take. After consulting current semester and previous semesters' departmental schedules, I was able to get an idea of when courses were typically offered. You can't skip this step, since some courses as you approach senior/graduate status are offered only every Spring, for example.

Anyway, after figuring out the timing of the offerings, the prerequisites need for each course, etc, I was able to plot my path well ahead of time for my BS and finished with exactly the courses I needed in the shortest possible time.

I highly recommend it to every new college student. At the very least, it makes you examine what you need to graduate and sticks it somewhere in the back of your head. At the best, it gives you control over your own path through college, with your Undegraduate Advisor filling only a *tada* advisory role :)


(Apologies for the off-topic rants guys, but I have noticed a *lot* of young students post here, and this is useful for all students, no matter what level of education you're at!)



At institutions where I am at, there is a concerted effort to assist students as they proceed through the programs, with advisors very actively involved. Not sure this is the case with other places. Of course, some students get bad advice - or do not fathom the amount of work required. Even those coming in with an AA degree from a smaller college/university. So, at least here, the freedom to plot there own way has been minimized.

Edit: not like the days where you were thrown in "sink-or-swim".
Quoting 1963. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Transfer student. I have my AA degree.


Excellent. Then you've already taken all those core base-education courses that sometimes have you moaning "why oh why do they make me take xxxxxx?".


Now, on to the fun stuff! Enjoy ;-) And start watching for internships. That's the secret to kicking down the door to success.

2013. nigel20
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Nigel - I are a ChemE

Hi Canes! How are you enjoying your career?
Quoting 2005. nigel20:

Good night LA! I hope that you'll enjoy the rest of your weekend.


Thanks, Nigel. I'm planning on it. You as well.
Quoting 2008. KoritheMan:


"Existential"? That's a word I don't see thrown around very often around here.

Consider me impressed. :)


Easily impressed, are we? :P

Actually, daddyjames used it first.
Quoting 2011. daddyjames:


At institutions where I am at, there is a concerted effort to assist students as they proceed through the programs, with advisors very actively involved. Not sure this is the case with other places. Of course, some students get bad advice - or do not fathom the amount of work required. Even those coming in with an AA degree from a smaller college/university. So, at least here, the freedom to plot there own way has been minimized.

Edit: not like the days where you were thrown in "sink-or-swim".


That is good to hear!

But it's my opinion that it's fantastic practice to do this type of planning early in one's education, since you repeat this pattern throughout life (planning your future, identifying prerequisites). Plus you get the added benefit of never being ill-advised. You'll never be led astray (accidentally or otherwise) if you already can see the road ahead :)

Some schools and programs require that you meet regularly with your advisor and that they must approve all course choices. If you have a choices, it is in your best interests to show up at that meeting with a selection that you already know will be approved, or based on sound planning on your part that you can convince the advisor of.

I'd show up, and basically get my plans rubber-stamped. It also reduced the workload of my advisor, which somewhere along the line increased the attention he could give to someone less organized than myself :)


Quoting 1990. hurricanes2018:
big Monster hurricane on here!!

Oh please. We all know that the 384 hr GFS might as well be a Mayan calendar or Magic Eight Ball...
Quoting 2010. tropicfreak:
DMAX is really helping Erin at this hour.



She does look promising, doesn't she?
2019. robj144
Quoting 1982. SunriseSteeda:


If you intend to take a lot of math classes, lemme tell you... Calc II will kick you in the head. Differential equations (if you have to take it) is likely 2nd. Calc I is usually only a 3-4 credit course, while Calc II is 5-6, so that should say alot :-D


You can get started this very minute, if you like. MIT Open Courseware is the most awesome way to spend your spare time between semesters! If you watch even a few of the videos for one or more courses you are *about* to take, it makes the actual course (when you get there) a *lot* *lot* easier, I promise!

Check this out, Calculus I, an entire course:

http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-01-sing le-variable-calculus-fall-2006/index.htm



Here is one called Atmospheric And Ocean Circulations (there are dozens of weather-related courses available free from MIT):


http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/earth-atmospheric-and- planetary-sciences/12-333-atmospheric-and-ocean-ci rculations-spring-2004/





Yes, but mets need to learn divergence and curls well in Calc. II. :)
invest 94l coming SOON!
2021. nigel20
Are the models showing development in the epac? I seem as if it may be quiet on that side for some time.
Quoting 2021. nigel20:
Are the models showing development in the epac? I seem as if it may be quiet on that side for some time.


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
Thanks stormchaser19 for providing the images to this website. Link

Hurricane Andrew at its peak with winds of 175 mph. and 80 mph. Hurricane Lestor making landfall on the Baja Peninsula :

Quoting 2016. SunriseSteeda:


That is good to hear!

But it's my opinion that it's fantastic practice to do this type of planning early in one's education, since you repeat this pattern throughout life (planning your future, identifying prerequisites). Plus you get the added benefit of never being ill-advised. You'll never be led astray (accidentally or otherwise) if you already can see the road ahead :)

Some schools and programs require that you meet regularly with your advisor and that they must approve all course choices. If you have a choices, it is in your best interests to show up at that meeting with a selection that you already know will be approved, or based on sound planning on your part that you can convince the advisor of.

I'd show up, and basically get my plans rubber-stamped. It also reduced the workload of my advisor, which somewhere along the line increased the attention he could give to someone less organized than myself :)




Yes, the students are required to meet with the advisors, and the instructors/professors submit reports to the advisors mid-semester regarding the progress of each student (made easier with the online grading system in place). Students then have to meet with their advisor mid-semester and prior to any registration attempt beforehand.

In most cases, it works very well. And really has allowed students to proceed successfully. It does help, and is much more pleasurable, to deal with those that come prepared for the meeting. But, as we know, that is not always the case. :D
Quoting 2013. nigel20:

Hi Canes! How are you enjoying your career?


Yeah it's been pretty darn good. Was in Southeast Asia (not in s typhoon zone die to proximity to the equator) for a month for work. It was awesome to go to Aisa for the first time.


wow do you see that near 45 w look !!!
Quoting 2002. LAbonbon:
Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.
Good night LAbonbon have a nice sleep and see you tomorrow. :)
Quoting 2026. Camille33:


wow do you see that near 45 w look !!!

i dont like that look at all may be 94l soon!!!
Iniki can be seen on the left.

Well, I'm off to stare at the ceiling for a couple of hours before the brain decides whether or not it'll allow me sleep tonight. I wish all well. And will catch up with you later.
Quoting 2028. Camille33:

i dont like that look at all may be 94l soon!!!


Seriously? Having a conversation with yourself? Time to call it quits for the evening.

G'nite.
Quoting 1965. DonnieBwkGA:
Fifi eye pass between the bay islands and the north coast of Honduras,but no landfall occur.Most storms skirt or grace Honduras but they don`t make landfall.
Erin remains a tropical storm.

AL, 05, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 186N, 351W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1012, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIN, M,
Well jeez! Seems as though the GFS is not the only one seeing a storm approaching the East Coast in the long range.

Pewa stays at 45 knots.

CP, 01, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1757W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 35, 20, 40, 1010, 140, 25, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PEWA, D,
T3.0/45kts intensity estimates on Pewa across the board.

CP, 01, 201308170530, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 17580W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PHFO, RK, I, 6, 3030 1024, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

CP, 01, 201308170532, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1020N, 17570W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PGTW, U, I, 6, 3030 D1524, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

CP, 01, 201308170600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 17580W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, M, I, 6, 3030 1524, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

Quoting 2023. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks stormchaser19 for providing the images to this website. Link

Hurricane Andrew at its peak with winds of 175 mph. and 80 mph. Hurricane Lestor making landfall on the Baja Peninsula :

Thanks Caleb for the website :D.
Quoting 2030. daddyjames:
Well, I'm off to stare at the ceiling for a couple of hours before the brain decides whether or not it'll allow me sleep tonight. I wish all well. And will catch up with you later.
Have a good night man, make sure to give the brains a good nights rest. And again thanks for your advice that means a lot to me.


may be 94l coming soon
2040. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

Thanks Kori! I'm wondering if the Atlantic will get its first major hurricane before the epac does. I guess that we'll have to wait and see though.
Quoting 2038. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Have a good night man, make sure to give the brains a good nights rest. And again thanks for your advice that means a lot to me.


Well if the past two nightds are any indication, it'll be a struggle :D

And before i go, the WPAC is going to be fun to watch. A dance between two storms, both expected to become cyclones, and a merger into a single storm. Will be extremely interesting to watch. From the discussion:

3. Forecast reasoning.
A. This is the initial prognostic reasoning and sets the forecast
philosophy.
B. TD 12w is currently tracking along the northern periphery of
the str axis. TD 12w is expected to experience direct cyclone
interaction (dci) with the neighboring TD 13w throughout the
forecast period
. TD 13w is currently 453 nm to the northeast. TD 12w
is expected to track eastward through tau 24 and then begin to turn
the northeast and eventually curve completely back to the west in a
cyclonic motion by tau 72. Meanwhile 13w will complete the cyclonic
turn beginning from the north and curve to the southwest. The
intensity is expected to slowly increase throughout the forecast
period. TD 12w is forecast to intensify to 30 knots by tau 12 and
reach tropical storm strength before beginning the cyclonic turn. As
TD 12w rounds the curve back to the west, the system is expected to
intensify to 50 knots. Confidence in the forecast track is low as
the dynamic model guidance is fairly spread and the global models
maybe struggling to handle the dci properly.
C. In the extended period, TD 12w is expected to continue to
track west-northwest as it merges with TD 13w
between tau 72 and
120. Both TD 12w and 13w are forecast to intensify to typhoon
strength upon merging
by tau 120. The large spread and uncertainty
in dynamic model guidance leaves low confidence in the forecast
track for this portion of the forecast. Additionally, due to the
large amount of dci anticipated in this scenario, it is expected
that global models will struggle to agree in forecast track and
intensity.//
Nnnn
Quoting 2030. daddyjames:
Well, I'm off to stare at the ceiling for a couple of hours before the brain decides whether or not it'll allow me sleep tonight. I wish all well. And will catch up with you later.


Later! I'm stayin' up all night to code this Android app. Getting it to talk to Facebook is being a pain.

2043. nigel20
I'm out as well. Good night fellow bloggers!
Quoting 2039. Camille33:


may be 94l coming soon


That, son, is pornography. Shame on you.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
15:00 PM JST August 17 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 25.9N 129.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 27.6N 126.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Okinawa
2046. Drakoen
Vorticity stretching occurring with 92L. A new area of 850mb vorticity maximum north of the old low now evident on cimss vorticity product. Old low is getting buried in the BOC.

Quoting 2009. robj144:


Do you teach at FAU?


Yep, I usually teach one class every semester (since 2010), while I plow through my PhD stuff.

(Department of Computer Science & Engineering)

What a difference a year makes :)

Humberto



Ike

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
15:00 PM JST August 17 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 20.7N 125.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.1N 127.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
My personal favorite and the one that had me on the edge of my seat biting my fingernails.

Hurricane Charley as it crosses the western tip of Cuba and emerges into the GOM early in the morning before landfall in SW FL. (Friday August 13, 2004)

2052. Rosslou
Question....Does a ULL have the capability to produce that much convection or is it possibility making a transition?
Quoting 1818. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dangerous pattern continues to show up on the long range GFS:

Man GT dats September pattern of 2004 is all over again! Thats sick! Florida will be on edge if this verifies in two weeks. look where the High is. Thats crazy GT!
AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

2055. IKE

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
AL, 92, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 206N, 926W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

The ULL looks much better than 92L. Need a magnifying glass to see 92L.
An upper-level low situated near 22N 173E should prevent Pewa from intensifying further by the next couple of days. As Pewa reaches close to the upper low, it will experience an increase in vertical shear and result in weakening. The evolution of the upper low, however, will determine how much weakening will occur.

2057. vis0

2013_92L_201308-16;1830-201308-17;0530GMT
►CREDIT:
UNISYS. Post produced WV + VIS + EnhIR, Visible Sat. only through half of the clip and was pushed when image was losing detail due to darkness.


Someone is going to have to invent a SAT that acts as if visible view by picking up the Sun's radiation going through the planet and reading the miniscule heat difference...go to it NASA....S.Q.U.I.N.T.
Much to my surprise, look at the pattern change from July to August (top is July, bottom is August):





Granted, we still have all of August left, but still, there's no denying the ridging over the Arctic in the second image, and the consequent troughing farther south.
Quoting 2052. Rosslou:
Question....Does a ULL have the capability to produce that much convection or is it possibility making a transition?


Its behavior up to this point has been completely normal.
2060. Rosslou
Quoting 2059. KoritheMan:


Its behavior up to this point has been completely normal.




Ok thank you! I was just curious.
Quoting 2058. KoritheMan:
Much to my surprise, look at the pattern change from July to August (top is July, bottom is August):





Granted, we still have all of August left, but still, there's no denying the ridging over the Arctic in the second image, and the consequent troughing farther south.

Also, let's try not to create too big a pissing contest with this post between who wants hurricanes and who doesn't. I just thought it was interesting.
so kori this basically shows that the pattern for re curves are still there right?
Quoting 2061. bigwes6844:
so kori this basically shows that the pattern for re curves are still there right?


If this were to remain in place, yes. It's a pattern that favors storms recurving east of the United States.

Though that still wouldn't negate the danger of low-riding Caribbean storms or something along those lines.
Quoting 2058. KoritheMan:
Much to my surprise, look at the pattern change from July to August (top is July, bottom is August):





Granted, we still have all of August left, but still, there's no denying the ridging over the Arctic in the second image, and the consequent troughing farther south.



What previous seasons can we compare this August setup to as opposed to July?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 35.6W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE CENTER OF ERIN IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE
CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ERIN GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED
BY A TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...
UKMET...CANADIAN..AND NAVGEM MODELS. THE TRACK LIES WELL TO THE
LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH RECURVES ERIN THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE.

ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C. WHILE
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER...THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR AND METEOSAT AIR MASS IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR ERIN TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DISSIPATES EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
EXCEPT THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.7N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 20.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 21.4N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting 2062. KoritheMan:


If this were to remain in place, yes. It's a pattern that favors storms recurving east of the United States.

Though that still wouldn't negate the danger of low-riding Caribbean storms or something along those lines.
i heard about that 588 line
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

...PEWA CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 176.3W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201 313_5day.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp2 01312_5day.html

If you look at the two maps at the above links, an odd thing is forecast for 3 AM Thursday: Both are supposed to be hurricanes in very nearly the same location, Taiwan. This is as of 8/17/13 at approximately 1:50 AM PST.

If the links do not work, can you guys do me a favor and list the steps on how to actually post the maps themselves? I've been tracking hurricanes for a couple of years now, and like to share what I see as odd happenings such as these.
Back to a Tropical storm Erin again
TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

EVEN THOUGH PEWA...PRONOUNCED /PEH-VAH/...HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
APPEARANCE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT CONTINUES TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT. A RAINBAND STRUCTURE HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING PEWA AS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE
NEAR FUTURE. THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES AT PHFO...JTWC AND SAB ALL
SHOWED THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 3.0...SO WE HAVE KEPT PEWA A 45 KT
SYSTEM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION /LLCC/ BASED ON ASCAT (16/2050Z) AND OSCAT
(16/2353Z) PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY. A 0519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
APPEARS TO SHOW THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE FIX
AGENCIES INDICATED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST FIXES AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE APPARENT
SCATTEROMETER-BASED TRACK OF THE LLCC. REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL
LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION OF
295/11 APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF PEWA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE FOR STEERING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST MODELS
SHOW THE HIGH WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP PEWA ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...AND
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY CHALLENGING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF PEWA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER WARM SSTS OF 28C
AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH INCREASINGLY WARM WATER AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST PATH. HOWEVER PEWA MAY
EVENTUALLY BE IMPACTED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 22N 174E. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES PEWA
CAN INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL KEEP IT FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER DURING DAYS 3 TO 5. NOTE
THAT THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 16/2353Z
OSCAT PASS.

FINALLY...THE CENTER OF PEWA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
DATE LINE INTO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF RSMC TOKYO LATER THIS
WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK...PEWA MAY MAKE THIS CROSSING
AFTER 18/0000Z.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.7N 176.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 11.4N 178.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 12.4N 179.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 13.4N 177.5E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 14.6N 175.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 170.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 19.5N 165.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 21.5N 161.5E 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
nice blowup for 92L
I know my friend VR46L is gonna watch this closely
Wow, several intensity models have Pewa becoming the next Ioke!
2074. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked......
2075. LargoFl
2076. LargoFl
Am i going crazy, or does it look like Erin is going to go out to sea, then curve back towards the CV islands? over the next week or two?
I am only a layman, but looking at the wave just south east or Barbados, a couple days out from the windwards, I think this bears watching. 50 West 10 North.

This is the similar location to where Ivan sprung from and it does seem to have been trying to get going for a couple days now and has managed to become free of Erin.

What is the shear and dust like in that area now?

Cheers.
2079. GatorWX
Quoting 2051. GTstormChaserCaleb:
My personal favorite and the one that had me on the edge of my seat biting my fingernails.

Hurricane Charley as it crosses the western tip of Cuba and emerges into the GOM early in the morning before landfall in SW FL. (Friday August 13, 2004)



That was a crazy little storm. Borderline cat 5 and I was sitting 13-14 linear miles north of the eye with 60-70mph winds top. Went to PG the following morning. Utter devestation. It was very similar to what I remember after Andrew hit SE FL.
2080. vis0
CREDIT: wisc.edu via CIMSS Realtime GOES Derived Product Imagery (tmp@ Band 3 (14.1µm) ). The image is much larger, cropped only present the needed info.

Big flare up over central GOM



Stationary... Interesting
Quoting 2063. yankees440:



What previous seasons can we compare this August setup to as opposed to July?


2011 was the closest I could find, but it should be noted that the trough axis is a little farther west with the current setup. And again, we still have half of August left for a transition:



2011
Quoting 2066. bigwes6844:
i heard about that 588 line


Yeah. Very important.
Good morning to all.

Kori. In terms of the Lesser Antilles thru PR,you see close calls or strikes to the islands with the pattern shaping up?
wow. 92l is no more? thought it was going into la. as maybe cat 1? and i see erin is heading out to sea. next few cv storms over the next month should follow erin
2087. WxLogic
Good Morning
2088. tkeith
I see WU has dropped 92L from the tropical page.

Looks like it's just gonna be a ruiner of Sunday golf here in NOLA...

(is "ruiner" really a word)?
2089. IKE
It is pouring out here in the Florida panhandle.
ULL seen being kind of pulled up into that blow up of convection in the central GOM. Associated weather drawn north/ northeast to northern gulf coast by trough influence.

Rainy wknd in store from Biloxi eastward.

Quoting 2091. Rmadillo:
ULL seen being kind of pulled up into that blow up of convection in the central GOM. Associated weather drawn north/ northeast to northern gulf coast by trough influence.

Rainy wknd in store from Biloxi eastward.



As predicted by the GFS 6Z run
starting to think we might not even have i name hurricane this year...
2095. WxLogic
Keep an eye on P20L... has a little potential.
A better view to see what looks to be a training setup of moisture from central GOM to the coast. Much like 4 July weekend.

Shortwave:
Quoting 2089. IKE:
It is pouring out here in the Florida panhandle.



Sho nuff,

Sat. morning, the splashdown doesn't appear to have wiped out the latest Train car.
2099. IKE
Looks to me like the ULL in the GOM absorbed 92L.
Quoting 2089. IKE:
It is pouring out here in the Florida panhandle.
thats crazy,
2101. IKE

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Sho nuff,
Gotta check my rain gauge when/if it stops.
Good morning...

we had a 2 minute sprinkle yesterday
2104. vis0
CREDIT: wisc.edu via CIMSS / GOES Cloud (ECA) DPI.

ULL taking the clouds during morning max (where it seems a dot is forming, ULL clouds) & Tropical LLC 5 - 7 degrees SSW of that "dot" taking clouds during evening min. PLACE YER BETS KNOW ( for natures' entertainment, only)

2105. IKE

Quoting bieaxbillybob:
we had a 2 minute sprinkle yesterday
Where are you located?
2106. Kyon5

Quoting 2098. seer2012:

Sat. morning, the splashdown doesn't appear to have wiped out the latest Train car.
Very interesting for sure. This wave has potential and could become a storm later down the road. It's also on a low latitude which means less dry air, warmer waters, and moisture from the ITCZ. We'll see what happens.
Quoting 2095. WxLogic:
Keep an eye on P20L... has a little potential.
Quoting 2105. IKE:

Where are you located?
bieax
the crawdads have been very active lately.
2111. SLU
Quoting 2083. KoritheMan:


2011 was the closest I could find, but it should be noted that the trough axis is a little farther west with the current setup. And again, we still have half of August left for a transition:



2011


Since your intervals are large, most of the data are hidden as "neutral". By adjusting your intervals, you can see that the pattern is vey much favouring a high impact year in the Caribbean and the US. The pattern in 2011 is totally different to 2013. We certainly won't see as many recurvatures this year relative to 2011.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
my uncle flip is heading out fishing this morning water is flat
2113. IKE

Good morning all... So is 92L a goner?
2115. ackee
I see 92L is no more Good let's give the Euro credit it did not develop the system the euro has been doing very well this seasons showing very few system develop unlike The GFS FIM and CmC all did develop 92L at one point. Until the Euro picks up on a disturbance and show possible development I personal won't take other models too serious I think they have been spinning up too much storm that fail to develop
That ULL is driving the bus now in the GOM. As mentioned last night, the old "LLC" that was hanging out west of the YucAtan yesterday is now a faint swirlie of nothingness. Tropical development chances are really about Zero, despite the 50% designation by NHC.

However the WEATHER associated with the GOM disturbance is very much a real threat. So the anchors from the cable news networks won't be REPORTING LIVE from wherever to report landfall, but many of you along the northern gulf coast will get a significant rain event for this weekend.

Enjoy!
Quoting 2115. ackee:
I see 92L is no more Good let's give the Euro credit it did not develop the system the euro has been doing very well this seasons showing very few system develop unlike The GFS FIM and CmC all did develop 92L at one point. Until the Euro picks up on a disturbance and show possible development I personal won't take other models too serious I think they have been spinning up too much storm that fail to develop
you think the models have been spinning up storms that dont develop?? why would you think that?
2118. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
2119. K8eCane
Quoting 2112. bieaxbillybob:
my uncle flip is heading out fishing this morning water is flat



Morning everybody. Best place I can find to check on things tropical.
I did want to say I have never heard of an Uncle Flip.
Love it!
Has a nice ring to it lol
2120. SLU
If anything, 1979 and 2004 are a few of the best analogs to August 2013 so far.


Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic

im near the mouth of the ol miss and yesterday we had a back swirl of water but that has stopped now
2122. IKE
Not sure what the NHC sees with 92L. I'll wait for visible to see what they are talking about.
Quoting 2119. K8eCane:



Morning everybody. Best place I can find to check on things tropical.
I did want to say I have never heard of an Uncle Flip.
Love it!
Has a nice ring to it lol
why thanks, ill tell him you said thatg. uncle flip is just my uncle and a good fisherman. he kn ows these waters like the back of his hand.. was concidered to be the best crawdad man in town
Did they mention the Afrca wave.
2125. IKE

Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.
Nope.
Quoting 2124. HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.




NO
2127. K8eCane
Quoting 2123. bieaxbillybob:
why thanks, ill tell him you said thatg. uncle flip is just my uncle and a good fisherman. he kn ows these waters like the back of his hand.. was concidered to be the best crawdad man in town


I know a couple guys like that. they are salt of the earth for sure
Quoting 2124. HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.
is that comming here?
Quoting 2122. IKE:
Not sure what the NHC sees with 92L. I'll wait for visible to see what they are talking about.


They are "backing away slowly" from 92L.

The ULL and weather with it is the main event now.
Quoting 2127. K8eCane:


I know a couple guys like that. they are salt of the earth for sure
well he started out when he was young netting blue cats, and specs. then worked for my dads crawdad farm. he ses storms turn things up in the swamps and fishing is good
2131. IKE
Had .79 inches at my location the last 24 hours. Raining moderately now.

5.25 for the month, so far.

Around 23 inches since July 1st.
2132. IKE

Quoting Rmadillo:


They are "backing away slowly" from 92L.

The ULL and weather with it is the main event now.
I agree.
2133. LargoFl
RAIN STILL COMING IN OVER THE VERY SAME AREA'S EVEN 72 hours out..flooding folks.....
img src="">

Morning everyone! Nice Thunderstorm here this morning in Grand Cayman
2135. ackee
bieaxbillybob

you think the models have been spinning up storms that dont develop?? why would you think that?


Yep if you should count amount of storm the CMC spin ups this year and the GFS at times we would be near 9 storm or even 10
Storm by now
2136. LargoFl
2138. LargoFl
I wonder why the local mets increased rain chances in the 7-day?
One of my professors, Ms Creant, used to always tell us not to fixate on tropical development to the expense of ignoring other weather that may have more impact.

The situation in the GOM would be a good example of that.
Good Morning everyone
Nice pic Salty dog
-back to coffee and watching from the background
2141. mrmombq
http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satanalatl2013/cur rent_NRL.png
2142. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HELD OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLIDES WITH THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. AN ISOLATED
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY
2143. mrmombq
2144. LargoFl
2146. GetReal
Quoting 2099. IKE:
Looks to me like the ULL in the GOM absorbed 92L.



I agree Ike... The only chance for development now rest with the ULL working its' way down to the surface. Buoy in the central GOM is reporting a rising barometer with a SOUTH wind, which would indicate no surface reflection.
I hope this people in south TX aren't wasting money buying supplies for a land falling system. Just looks like nothing heading that way from the gulf disturbance.
Quoting 2135. ackee:
bieaxbillybob

you think the models have been spinning up storms that dont develop?? why would you think that?


Yep if you should count amount of storm the CMC spin ups this year and the GFS at times we would be near 9 storm or even 10
Storm by now
well its been very active so far this year
06z, for whatever reason, dropped any development of the Cape Verde wave. However I don't think that will verify as it's only one run vs the 6 or 7 the GFS has been showing development of. Here's the 00z GFS end of the run, at the end of "fantasy land."
Good morning. Erin's convection has been completely sheared off, she will probably weaken to a remnant low sooner than the NHC thinks:

2151. GetReal
Sure I'll dissipate before reaching me :(

2154. Roark
Quoting Rmadillo:
I hope this people in south TX aren't wasting money buying supplies for a land falling system. Just looks like nothing heading that way from the gulf disturbance.


Cant speak for the city folks, but we keep the supplies stocked all year now. After IKE, a lot of people got a wake up call (myself included) and now keep pantries full, fuel cached, etc. We were out of grid power locally for 13 days. Makes a believer out of you quick when it comes to preparation.
this season has been very active and hope it starts to die down soon and things get quiet. making everyone to nervous



Waiting for local sunrise to see if any swirl is visible.
2158. tkdaime
what ia the blowup of thunderstorms near lesser antillas
I guess that is the surface reflection for 92L, down there at 23n/90w.

Laughable, really.
2160. centex
Looks like WU glitch with 92L.
i am getting ready for the new invest in the next 28 hours!
Quoting 2124. HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the Afrca wave.


No, but I thought they would in the five day. Guess they don't think it has any chance to develop
Quoting 2161. hurricanes2018:
i am gettg ready for the new invest in the next 28 hours!
should follow erin
Quoting 2162. clwstmchasr:


No, but I thought they would in the five day. Guess they don't think it has any chance to develop
its goona follow erin probably as just a td by end of next week
Quoting 2162. clwstmchasr:


No, but I thought they would in the five day. Guess they don't think it has any chance to develop


The possible genesis of this system would occur about 8-10 days from now, so there's no need to mention it until next week.
According to this Erin should continue West. Must be a weakness there.


Never turn your back on a ULL seed.
2168. centex
I've seen more interst in near zero invest. Remember NHC has it medium for a reason and not just for some unrealistic reason.
Quoting 2168. centex:
I've seen more interst in near zero invest. Remember NHC has it medium for a reason and not just for some unrealistic reason.

tropics quiet next 10 days
2170. yoboi
Quoting 2154. Roark:


Cant speak for the city folks, but we keep the supplies stocked all year now. After IKE, a lot of people got a wake up call (myself included) and now keep pantries full, fuel cached, etc. We were out of grid power locally for 13 days. Makes a believer out of you quick when it comes to preparation.


try 27 days for Rita.....
A Song of Flood and Fire: One Million Square Kilometers of Burning Siberia Doused by Immense Deluge

Link

“Reuters) – As many as 100,000 people may be evacuated from their homes near Russia’s border with China if the region’s biggest floods for 120 years get worse, Russian media reported on Saturday.

Link
2173. vis0
CREDIT insmet (Cuba) via NOAA

2174. SLU
Quoting 2152. CaribBoy:
Sure I'll dissipate before reaching me :(



Nice looking blobette.
Very hostile environment for 92L. Extremely dry air to its West (especially up in Texas.
Quoting 2169. Camille33:

tropics quiet next 10 days


You do realize there is a ts in the Atlantic?
Quoting 2165. CybrTeddy:


The possible genesis of this system would occur about 8-10 days from now, so there's no need to mention it until next week.


Where is the seedling right now? That's a long way out and wouldn't the genesis begin much closer to home?
This image shows why TX won't be seeing any action, and really all the way east to about NOLA. The dry air spilling down with the dip in the jet is obvious. The weather in the GOM is being funneled right up to the fl panhandle region.

From my facebook..two days ago..still going on though

Quoting 2178. clwstmchasr:


Where is the seedling right now? That's a long way out and wouldn't the genesis begin much closer to home?


Currently emerging off Africa.
2182. GetReal


I expect that the ULL and what is left of 92L will put on a pretty impressive show this morning into this afternoon. I now do not expect any further development, until IF that ULL can work its' way down to the surface.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An absolutely beautiful 66 degrees this morning. I've already been out in the garden and after some coffee will head back out again. It looks like 92L won't be giving us any much needed rain here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CF's if she's been here: shrimp and spinach omelet, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, fluffy scrambled eggs, maple flavored bacon, sausage links,
cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 2174. SLU:


Nice looking blobette.


Seeing it on satellite was a nice wake up surprise XD. BUT will it rain at my place.. Barbuda is getting its fix... as always this year.
Quoting 2176. clwstmchasr:


You do realize there is a ts in the Atlantic?


And does he realize that's not true? In 10 days we'll probably be talking about our first hurricane forming.
2187. GetReal
2188. centex
Quoting 2179. Rmadillo:
This image shows why TX won't be seeing any action, and really all the way east to about NOLA. The dry air spilling down with the dip in the jet is obvious. The weather in the GOM is being funneled right up to the fl panhandle region.

your just tracking the ULL. Rain chances on increase starting Monday on the coast.
2189. SLU
Quoting 2185. CaribBoy:


Seeing it on satellite was a nice wake up surprise XD. BUT will it rain at my place.. Barbuda is getting its fix... as always this year.


Some of it looks to be passing to the north...
Good Morning!

7:14 am (11:14 GMT)

Sunrise from Lantana, Florida.


Dexter demonstrates how to stay on point. Now, if I would only take his advice...

No rain yesterday, none expected today. Have a great day everyone.
2191. hydrus
Quoting 2120. SLU:
If anything, 1979 and 2004 are a few of the best analogs to August 2013 so far.


Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic




Image and video hosting by TinyPic

I very much agree SLU. When this year is over, I bet there are going to be more tracks similar to David and Frederic...Two storms I remember well.
Did someone say seedlings?.


Okay well I must be headed out now.It will be another fabulous weather day here in the DMV.Thanks aislinnpaps for breakfast.See ya'll later.
Buoy to the NW of 92L is reporting NNE winds of 20 mph. Yesterday that buoy averaged around 11 mph winds, so could be some very slow strengthening going on.


My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...
Quoting 2181. CybrTeddy:


Currently emerging off Africa.


Thought so. I assume that was the wave the 00z GFS had a hurricane near the Bahamas.
morning. i see the 6z GFS dropped our wave but 0z still showed it. despite the GFS dropping it, the E. atlantic will get active. we might get an invest soon on that wave
Next week should be very interesting.
Quoting 2189. SLU:


Some of it looks to be passing to the north...


While the southern part is stalling just a few miles to the east... and will probably dissipate lol.
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...



Take a deep breath, (and maybe a zannie) and ask yourself, what you are doing here.
The nations have fallen, and thou still art young,
Thy sun is but rising, when others are set;
And though slavery's cloud o'er thy morning hath hung,
The full noon of freedom shall beam round thee yet.
Erin, oh Erin, though long in the shade,
Thy star will shine out when the proudest shall fade.



Erin, Oh Erin by Thomas Moore - Verse II
NWS Tallahassee ‏@NWSTallahassee 22m ago
Radar indicating possible water spout just offshore Panama City Beach. #besafe #flwx
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...




2204. VR46L
Good Morning Sounds like an interesting day for the northern Gulf!

LSU IR imagery



Loop Embedded
I need some Irish coffee. That stuff is delicious.

Meanwhile ... More rain for those folks along the northern gulf.
Where are you at Largo? Any of that rain coming for you?
2207. SLU
Quoting 2191. hydrus:
I very much agree SLU. When this year is over, I bet there are going to be more tracks similar to David and Frederic...Two storms I remember well.


Yep. It's one of the best analogues to 2013. The 500mb height anomalies, the SLP anomalies and the 400mb temperature anomalies for 1979 match up very well with 2013. Other great analogues based on the steering patterns are 1966, 1988, 1996 and of course 2004. All of these years were very high impact years.
2208. SLU
Quoting 2199. CaribBoy:


While the southern part is stalling just a few miles to the east... and will probably dissipate lol.


lol.

Maybe you might get a couple storms to make up for the shortfall.
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...

The views of a few people do not represent the views of the rest of us.
2210. VR46L
Quoting 2205. Rmadillo:
I need some Irish coffee. That stuff is delicious.

Meanwhile ... More rain for those folks along the northern gulf.



LOL!!

Bit early in the morning for that !!

Sure looks like the Northern Gulf is in for a very wet day...



2211. hydrus
2212. scott39
Quoting 2184. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An absolutely beautiful 66 degrees this morning. I've already been out in the garden and after some coffee will head back out again. It looks like 92L won't be giving us any much needed rain here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to CF's if she's been here: shrimp and spinach omelet, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, fluffy scrambled eggs, maple flavored bacon, sausage links,
cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
OK.... please stop torturing me every morning! Lol... Ive got a generic poptart and some milk. Could I please come to your house for breakfast, or at least point me in the direction of the nearest Golden Coral breakfast Bar. Im kidding of course, sometimes my imagination of your beautiful painted picture of food is enough:)
Quoting 2210. VR46L:



LOL!!

Bit early in the morning for that !!

Sure looks like the Northern Gulf is in for a very wet day...





The rain started about 5 am in Fort Walton Beach and we're up to 2.5" so far. Good soggy morning everyone!
2214. LargoFl
Quoting 2206. MisterPerfect:
Where are you at Largo? Any of that rain coming for you?
Hi must have had some rain here last night..everything is wet now..nothing so far this morning yet..local mets say alot of rain possible here this afternoon,we'll see what happens.
2215. hydrus


Still a circulation associated with 92L, but it's weakening.

After not performing at DMAX, I'd keep chances of redevelopment low, but there's some convection firing over the center right now it seems, so we'll have to see if it can get something going. IF it can, it just might be able to use the BOC to spin up better again and give itself a second chance. If not, I hope it made a will.
Quoting 2208. SLU:


lol.

Maybe you might get a couple storms to make up for the shortfall.


This weekend and first part of next week are supposed to be somewhat rainy. So maybe we will indeed get a little something. I hope it so badly XD
Quoting 2214. LargoFl:
Hi must have had some rain here last night..everything is wet now..nothing so far this morning yet..local mets say alot of rain possible here this afternoon,we'll see what happens.
It's hard to believe that storm didn't wake you last night! The lightning was incredible. It came through between one and two I believe
Quoting 2209. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The views of a few people do not represent the views of the rest of us.
how much stock are you buying the 6z run of the GFS? yesterday the run got messed up. i still see the CV train despite the 6z backing off. we might get invest 94L soon
Forget umbrellas...we're passing out snorkels today in Gulf Breeze, Fl. 4.5 inches since midnight and it looks like she is just getting warmed up!
2222. scott39
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...
Its called human nature. Most people want to see or experience the awe of mother nature.
2223. LargoFl
Quoting 2200. PensacolaDoug:



Take a deep breath, (and maybe a zannie) and ask yourself, what you are doing here.


I have as a hobby, among astronomy and sports, weather, and i dont understand the lack of objectivism which is present here. Dont misinterpret what i am saying.
2225. ncstorm
00z CMC developing the 45W wave..hurling it to NC

Quoting 2219. wunderweatherman123:
how much stock are you buying the 6z run of the GFS? yesterday the run got messed up. i still see the CV train despite the 6z backing off. we might get invest 94L soon

Putting stock into any runs of the GFS in the long range is not a good idea. A blend of the past several shows us the wave needs to be watched.
2227. LargoFl
panhandle might see some waterspouts or brief tornado's today..
Quoting 2226. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Putting stock into any runs of the GFS in the long range is not a good idea. A blend of the past several shows us the wave needs to be watched.
good point, 12z will probably show both of them
2229. ncstorm
morning everyone...looks like 92 just might be trying to get her act together...but drifting se? Was sure hoping to wake up to some good surf but nothing but rain...and a lot of it! Still think we might be in for a surprise, the gulf is full of surprises....
Quoting 2220. EcoLogic:
Forget umbrellas...we're passing out snorkels today in Gulf Breeze, Fl. 4.5 inches since midnight and it looks like she is just getting warmed up!



4" at my house in Pensacola since last night. Gonna have to swim out to the mailbox to get my mail later on today. Ha!
2232. scott39
Quoting 2224. matara28:


I have as a hobby, among astronomy and sports, weather, and i dont understand the lack of objectivism which is present here. Dont misinterpret what i am saying.
That is called lack of experience or knowledge of weather....and is just entertainment while learning....after awhile some do mature in the experience and knowledge of weather, and have great input.
I don't put any stock into the GFS beyond 144 hours for serious guidance, however one run of the GFS dropping the system does not mean the GFS has got it nailed by any means. Having several runs showing a Category 2-3 hurricane and the next dropping it is just bad consistency as usual. The odds are in favor of development vs. not.
2234. LargoFl
wow going to be a very wet 24 hours for some folks huh..
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...

Who are you people? Why is everything about the US? We do have bloggers all over the world on here. I don't know who is wishing for disasters or why that is even brought up by you. Can you validate who said that? Because I didn't say any posts wanting that today. Posts like you wrote above is a quick way to go to a iggy list. Tread lightly ok?
2236. icmoore
.
Stretched out Vorticity (rip, Vorticity).

Cool, breezy and dry in SW LA. I'm loving it watching these tropical systems struggle this year. Hope the dry air and shear continue. Might be too much to wish for though.
Quoting 2034. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well jeez! Seems as though the GFS is not the only one seeing a storm approaching the East Coast in the long range.



Thatll make some waves in Florida! Thanks for the post GT. Lets hope it stays out to sea for the fishes. I dont feel like putting up the shutters.
2240. yoboi
Quoting 2224. matara28:


I have as a hobby, among astronomy and sports, weather, and i dont understand the lack of objectivism which is present here. Dont misinterpret what i am saying.



What are you trying to say???????????
2241. CJ5
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...


This blog is for tropical weather enthusiasts. We enjoy discussing, tracking and learning about tropical weather. No one here wishes for a disaster. If that is something you don't understand perhaps you need to find another blog.
2242. LargoFl
2243. IKE
Pouring here in Defuniak Springs,FL.
I really think NHC could conserve some crayons and deactivate 92L.
Quoting 2194. matara28:
My God. I dont understand you people. It is obvious that this year its "dry"in hurricanes. You still hope at everey african wave to see a developing system and reach US? You wish for disasters? I remeber the asteriod episode form Russia. There were a few users who were a little disappointed because Russia had an asteroid and US dont...
This comment came off as a misconception or common fallacy known as a generalization. You said, "you people" which would refer to everybody in here including the trolls who come here everyday. The fact of the matter is and if you were on last night I said if you lived through Mitch, Georges, Katrina, or Andrew you would likely be fine with the storms staying away from you and OTS, now I put emphasis on likely because it is also possible that some although scared to admit it because of fear of being bashed to death on this blog would want to experience it again maybe for their own thrill or what not. Now there are some regulars here who want to see the major hurricanes, but have them stay OTS. I firmly believe the average sane person would never wish death and destruction, I would leave that to a madman making a wish like that.
Matara, first of all it's nice to see a fellow astronomer. Hoping to get a z10 Zhumell reflector soon when I cough up the money. Second of all, not everyone on here wishes for a US strike. The people on here who do are the ones who can't use the computer past 9 o'clock because their parents tell them to go to bed. They care less for the beauty of meteorology and more for missing school. They'll be gone soon once school starts back up next week. Having gone through Hurricane Isabel, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, and Wilma I can tell you these things aren't something you take lightly or hope for on someone.
2247. LargoFl
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

2248. IKE
And more rain is headed this way....looks to be moving NNE from the GOM.....


2249. yoboi
Quoting 2245. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This comment came off as a misconception or common fallacy known as a generalization. You said, "you people" which would refer to everybody in here including the trolls who come here everyday. The fact of the matter is and if you we are on last night I said if you lived through Mitch, Georges, Katrina, or Andrew you would likely be fine with the storms staying away from you and OTS, now I put emphasis on likely because it is also possible that some although scared to admit it because of fear of being bashed to death on this blog would want to experience it again maybe for their own thrill or what not. Now there are some regulars here who want to see the major hurricanes, but have them stay OTS. I firmly believe the average sane person would never wish death and destruction, I would leave that to a madman making a wish like that.




Why are you being so rational???? ;)
2250. IKE
Not going to stop anytime soon.....wow :(


Can you say training, when will it end?

2253. LargoFl
Quoting 2248. IKE:
And more rain is headed this way....looks to be moving NNE from the GOM.....


nam and gfs have this going on for more than 96 hours whew.
2254. LargoFl
2255. DFWjc
Quoting 2245. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This comment came off as a misconception or common fallacy known as a generalization. You said, "you people" which would refer to everybody in here including the trolls who come here everyday. The fact of the matter is and if you were on last night I said if you lived through Mitch, Georges, Katrina, or Andrew you would likely be fine with the storms staying away from you and OTS, now I put emphasis on likely because it is also possible that some although scared to admit it because of fear of being bashed to death on this blog would want to experience it again maybe for their own thrill or what not. Now there are some regulars here who want to see the major hurricanes, but have them stay OTS. I firmly believe the average sane person would never wish death and destruction, I would leave that to a madman making a wish like that.


This had to be put....
2256. Scotth
Quoting 2250. IKE:
Not going to stop anytime soon.....wow :(




I got the same radar pic, IKE. I'm here in defuniak too. Looks like like a good day for a book! I'd say a good day for a movie but as soon as a rain drop falls we lose our dish.
2257. ncstorm
.
2258. LargoFl
alot of these kinds of warnings up there.......Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...
GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

FLC013-037-045-077-181322-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0078.130817T2136Z-130819T1800Z/
/BLOF1.1.ER.130817T2136Z.130818T0600Z.130819T1200 Z.NO/
922 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 8:06 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE
RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL
IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA.

$$
Quoting 2239. waveRoller:


Thatll make some waves in Florida! Thanks for the post GT. Lets hope it stays out to sea for the fishes. I dont feel like putting up the shutters.
Good morning and no problem, the catalyst is the area of disturbed weather behind a tropical wave that is an area of low pressure attached to the monsoon trough which is around 50 West, this is not the same system the GFS develops in the long range. Dry air is its main inhibitor at this point and the CMC which is constantly referred to some here as "Constantly Making Cyclones" is the only model aggressively showing this.



Is 92L stationary atm?
2262. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING IN...
CENTRAL RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN ANSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 835 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL RICHMOND AND SOUTHEASTERN ANSON
COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 600 AM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS...IN LOW LYING
AREAS...AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITIONS...PONDING
WATER WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ALONG US HIGHWAY 1 TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ROCKINGHAM.

2264. IKE

Quoting Scotth:


I got the same radar pic, IKE. I'm here in defuniak too. Looks like like a good day for a book! I'd say a good day for a movie but as soon as a rain drop falls we lose our dish.
This is bad today. Glad I got my new tin roof last fall. Unbelievable rains.
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?

2266. LargoFl
LOOK at all that moisture streaming northeast wow..
2267. hydrus
Andrew was named today back in 92. Andrew was small but powerful. Floyd ,Andrew comparison while at the same intensity.

Quoting 2253. LargoFl:
nam and gfs have this going on for more than 96 hours whew.
The trough digging in from the north is shearing 92l,once the trough lifts out look for slow development ..Are you a meteorologist ? No,but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
2269. LargoFl
so far all clear around here.............
Quoting 2266. LargoFl:
LOOK at all that moisture streaming northeast wow..


Did you get that storm in the middle if the night? I got 1.9 inches here in Oldsmar. The NWS issued a special statement followed by a Urban Flood Warning.
2271. Scotth
Anyone care to help? http://www.ehow.com/how_2120468_build-ark.html
Attention panhandle Sunday school teachers...time to break out your Genesis 7 lesson.
2273. yoboi
Quoting 2260. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning and no problem, the catalyst is the area of disturbed weather behind a tropical wave that is an area of low pressure attached to the monsoon trough which is around 50 West, this is not the same system the GFS develops in the long range. Dry air is its main inhibitor at this point and the CMC which is constantly referred to some here as "Constantly Making Cyclones" is the only model aggressively showing this.






what model has done the best with 92L so far????
2274. ncstorm
so has 92L been deactivated? I dont see it on WU page anymore
Quoting 2265. MisterPerfect:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?

Looks like it is starting to become stretched out into a surface trough.
2276. Dakster
Quoting 2271. Scotth:
Anyone care to help? http://www.ehow.com/how_2120468_build-ark.html


Sure, I'll send over the two mosquitos and roaches you will need.
I see we have TD12 and TD13 in the WPAC now. Current tracks indicate they will come very close to each other.





We should definitely see a Fujiwhara Effect between the two of them which will be interesting to watch!


So I don't get banned, I'll let y'all fill in the blank. The ground here is soggy as ____
Quoting 2274. ncstorm:
so has 92L been deactivated? I dont see it on WU page anymore
Nope still there, don't know why WU took it down?

AL, 92, 2013081712, , BEST, 0, 207N, 928W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Link
2281. LargoFl
Quoting 2268. victoria780:
The trough digging in from the north is shearing 92l,once the trough lifts out look for slow development ..Are you a meteorologist ? No,but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
LOL yes models do maybe bring it up to TS for awhile once that happens
Dear God,

While we are very grateful for your gifts of abundance, we are also more than happy to share the rain that you have continued to provide us with our neighbors.

Please let us know if you need directions to Texas and we will email you a link to Google Map.

Sincerely,

The Florida Panhandle aka the Monsoon Paradise....
2283. yoboi
Quoting 2278. PanhandleChuck:
So I don't get banned, I'll let y'all fill in the blank. The ground here is soggy as ____




Half Reported....:)
Quoting 2279. seer2012:
I see a 6. :D
Quoting 2278. PanhandleChuck:
So I don't get banned, I'll let y'all fill in the blank. The ground here is soggy as ____

cooked oatmeal? ;)
2286. Scotth
How bout a song for the day?

http://youtu.be/h4bc9UwZsYs
what is the feature south of the azores? anything?

2288. DFWjc
Quoting 2282. stormhawg:
Dear God,

While we are very grateful for your gifts of abundance, we are also more than happy to share the rain that you have continued to provide us with our neighbors.

Please let us know if you need directions to Texas and we will email you a link to Google Map.

Sincerely,

The Florida Panhandle aka the Monsoon Paradise....


And we'd gladly accept all the rain we could get. My mother lives is NE Texas and they are 30 inches below right now....
2289. ricderr
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too
2290. ackee
I have learn a lot from this blog from trolls wish caster even down caster I think this is the best tropical blog each person brings a different view on the tropics
2291. 19N81W
have we had a hurricane yet?
What happened to 92L?
2293. DFWjc
Quoting 2285. seminolesfan:

cooked oatmeal? ;)


an irish stew?
2294. Scotth
Quoting 2276. Dakster:


Sure, I'll send over the two mosquitos and roaches you will need.


Haha Dak! They're probably the 2 pairs we don't need here in defuniak springs, FL.
2295. ricderr
what is the feature south of the azores? anything?


cinnamon swirl donut

2296. LargoFl
Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FLC035-171545-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.W.0023.130817T1349Z-130817T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
FLAGLER FL-
949 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALM COAST...BUNNELL...ANDALUSIA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 948 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
STRONG AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER FLAGLER COUNTY WITH THE POSSIBLE FLOODING OF ROADSIDE DRAINAGE
DITCHES...DIRT ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE ROADWAYS. THESE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY THROUGH 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

&&

Quoting 2289. ricderr:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too


thank you for your diagnosis, Dr. Derr. Do you think the trough to the north will keep 92L in limbo in the gulf and eventually disturb Cuba and the Florida straights?
Quoting 2295. ricderr:
what is the feature south of the azores? anything?


cinnamon swirl donut



Oh, I see. I guess Erin is deciding to take a break from her low-carb diet today.
2299. 62901IL
Quoting 2298. MisterPerfect:


Oh, I see. I guess Erin is deciding to take a break from her low-carb diet today.

hahahahaha
2300. hydrus
Well 92-L gets high marks for persistence. I guess the NHC boys keep it at 50/50 for next 120 hrs just in case the barely visible LLC hangs around long enough for the troughing to lift out. Either way,
folks from SE La to Fl Panhandle may need an ark
soon.
Quoting 2277. Envoirment:
I see we have TD12 and TD13 in the WPAC now. Current tracks indicate they will come very close to each other.





We should definitely see a Fujiwhara Effect between the two of them which will be interesting to watch!




Actually, those two are forecasted to merge with one another to form a typhoon, with the circulation of TD12 becoming dominant. Should be very fun to watch.

G'morning from central OK. Beautiful here, windows open, unbelievable that I can say that in August in OK.
Sampled breakfast already, blog and otherwise (blog's was much better).

Well, so much for that ULL associated with 92L weakening. Try to stay above the water if you are in the SE Gulf Coast region.

Have a blast, and a wonderful day all.
2303. Dakster
Quoting 2294. Scotth:


Haha Dak! They're probably the 2 pairs we don't need here in defuniak springs, FL.


Do they still put tail numbers on mosquitos in Defuniak?

I'm sure with all the rain you have been having they must be out in DROVES.
Quoting 2285. seminolesfan:

cooked oatmeal? ;)


LOL yup
Quoting 2289. ricderr:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too


Hmmmmmm, cowboys with hangovers?

I can't figure 92l for nothing. It's frustrating.

How often does one sit and pray a tropical storm forms?
2306. ricderr
I have learn a lot from this blog from trolls wish caster even down caster I think this is the best tropical blog each person brings a different view on the tropics.


i have a real perverse view of this blog....but to start...yes i have learned much, mainly where to look and how to gather information.....but when the rubber meets the road...most of what is said on here is speculation and i would not trust my safety or those that i love with it....what i truly enjoy though...is there are a few young men that posted as weather geek teenagers a few years back that are now persuing their degrees as mets in college...and one made the claim the other day....that the more he learns the worse his forecasts seem to pan out....not only a great lesson in humility...but a great lesson in the amount of respect we should have for the professionals
2307. 62901IL
Quoting 2302. daddyjames:


Actually, those two are forecasted to merge with one another to form a typhoon, with the circulation of TD12 becoming dominant. Should be very fun to watch.

G'morning from central OK. Beautiful here, windows open, unbelievable that I can say that in August in OK.
Sampled breakfast already, blog and otherwise (blog's was much better).

Well, so much for that ULL associated with 92L weakening. Try to stay above the water if you are in the SE Gulf Coast region.

Have a blast, and a wonderful day all.

track maps Say they are supposed to take different paths
2308. Hhunter
Today marks the 44th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille here on the MS Gulf Coast. I'm thankful still that I only remember parts of it due to my age.
2311. Grothar
Quoting 2289. ricderr:
Is 92L moving back into the Yucatan?




I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....might be easier to see if the flaoter was more centered over the increasing convection.....

i could always go to another site and copy and paste what others think...but then i might sound intelligent and that won't happen.....


ok cowboys.....time to shoot this one down too


You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection.


2312. IKE
A break from the core of the rain

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zP6xPNVB6XY


2313. ricderr
How often does one sit and pray a tropical storm forms?


yep.....i would hope that seeing even el paso was belled wath SAL dust....we could also see some moisture from a tropical system
2315. Scotth
Quoting 2303. Dakster:


Do they still put tail numbers on mosquitos in Defuniak?

I'm sure with all the rain you have been having they must be out in DROVES.


As big as the bugs are down here I'm surprised they dont have their own pilots! All this rain is actually a blessing in disguise. They don't have time to come out. Its always raining!
2316. LargoFl
Quoting 2311. Grothar:


You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection.




Hey, I thought it was moving south into the Pacific ;). man, gonna lose that bet.

Morning Gro. :D
2318. ricderr
grothar
You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection

ricderr

I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....

ahem....gro....didn't we say almost the same thing? LMAO
2319. Hhunter
2320. 19N81W
Quoting 2306. ricderr:
I have learn a lot from this blog from trolls wish caster even down caster I think this is the best tropical blog each person brings a different view on the tropics.


i have a real perverse view of this blog....but to start...yes i have learned much, mainly where to look and how to gather information.....but when the rubber meets the road...most of what is said on here is speculation and i would not trust my safety or those that i love with it....what i truly enjoy though...is there are a few young men that posted as weather geek teenagers a few years back that are now persuing their degrees as mets in college...and one made the claim the other day....that the more he learns the worse his forecasts seem to pan out....not only a great lesson in humility...but a great lesson in the amount of respect we should have for the professionals


I think your right in many respects....I will add though that the more time I spend on here and following the weather in general even the so called experts are just slightly better than a guess most of the time...just have a look at this seasons forcast, heck the beloved Dr. Masters himself told us to look out for a potential tropical storm along the texas coast sunday night!...you would be surprised by how accurate some of the stuff said on here is...as you said all the info is out there it just depends how you use it.
This season has been extremely active so far, and we here hope the season is over real soon and we get back to normal weather
2322. LargoFl
I guess no chance 92 crossing back into the eastern side of the gulf huh over time?...
2323. Hhunter
Link

water vapor shows mid level swirl getting under convection
2324. hydrus
The EURO has Baha getting whacked.

The NAM 33 hours out.
Quoting 2318. ricderr:
grothar
You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection

ricderr

I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....

ahem....gro....didn't we say almost the same thing? LMAO
LOL sounds like the same thing, I think Grothar is just pulling your chain ricderr, unless my reading comprehension skills are bad? :P
Quoting 2324. hydrus:
The EURO has Baha getting whacked.

The NAM 33 hours out.
They are up to the "I" named storm now right hydrus?
2327. Dakster
Quoting 2311. Grothar:


You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection.




92L has been a tricky little bugger huh?
2328. LargoFl
vertical instability and SAL look really bad this year.not favorable for tropical development of anything higher than a minimal ts.look at erin.forecated to be a remnant low in 5 days.at the middle to end of august???? shear and dry air also are a problem this year too. starting to wonder if we'll even make it to the j storm....
2331. Grothar
Quoting 2318. ricderr:
grothar
You're way wrong. I think it is stationary and and new low might be forming over the increasing convection

ricderr

I would think it is stationary, however the low might be reforming....

ahem....gro....didn't we say almost the same thing? LMAO



That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing. :)
2332. LargoFl
feel bad for panhandle folks in florida.man that is alot of rain too much. its good that the steering this year in the gom favors mexico since that is the last thing they need is a healthy ts...
2334. ricderr
just have a look at this seasons forcast,


i belive you are talking about pre-seasonal tropical total forecasts and if so i would agree with you...however it appears that a lot of money is contributed to entities such as colorado u and i would gather that is in hope that they will improve and be an advantage for business to forecast trends due to weather
Quoting 2323. Hhunter:
Link

water vapor shows mid level swirl getting under convection
That convection is about to get pulled apart and the tropical feed is about to continue for the panhandle of FL.
2336. Grothar
Quoting 2327. Dakster:


92L has been a tricky little bugger huh?


Not for me. I can see a number of you have had trouble with the poor thing. (and it ain't over yet.
Quoting 2330. stormgirI:
vertical instability and SAL look really bad this year.not favorable for tropical development of anything higher than a minimal ts.look at erin.forecated to be a remnant low in 5 days.at the middle to end of august???? shear and dry air also are a problem this year too. starting to wonder if we'll even make it to the j storm....


Come on sg - at least change it up once in a while. ;)
2338. ricderr
That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing.


i thought as much...but if i didn't respond although i should have been more huffy...we couldn't continue a mad war over the subject....and by the way...not only am i right and you wrong...i was first!


92L as predicted by the GFS has become a huge source of moisture and rain for the central Gulf Coast. The CoC has stalled as well. What happens from here is anyone's guess but IMHO I don't see it developing into anything other than a huge rain maker. It might also help cool down the GOMEX which is a good thing.
Quoting 2337. daddyjames:


Come on sg - at least change it up once in a while. ;)
just tellin it like it is daddyjames...
2342. mfcmom

Panama City here. "Sittin on the Dock of the Bay, watching the rain wash everything away". Who dropped a bucket of water on us. The dolphin in the backyard are trying to escape. Jeesh.
2343. LargoFl
Quoting 2339. bieaxbillybob:
some guy was saying that shear and dry air would kill this season since last june. he was right about it
it looking more and more likely that will be the calling card all the way until november....
We ar definitely in need of 92L s rain in Katy, Tx...
2346. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING MID
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH AND THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE NUISANCE STANDING WATER IN LOW
SPOTS AND ON ROADWAYS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING. SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS OF NEARLY
AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. SOME AREAS MAY SEE TWO TO THREE
INCHES WELL INLAND NEAR THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR AND THEME
PARKS.
...morning. 92l stalled ? Does this change the chance of development now ? Did I miss why it is no longer shown on the WU map ?
I'm already starting to think about winter weather... That's how boring this season has been to me. I hope for a dry and cold winter. I'm sick of this rain. Haven't cut the grass in three weeks and it's looking like a jungle out there.
Good morning. Getting some steady rain here in South Baldwin County. And the worst part is that I have to get out in it. Oh the joys of being a mother to a teenaged daughter .lol
2351. LargoFl
2352. ncstorm
Oklahoma Tornado Survivors Start New School Year



Nearly three months after a massive tornado wound through Moore, Okla., destroying two elementary schools on the last day of school, parents and students headed back to class Friday for the first day of the new school year.

Two elementary schools, Briarwood and Plaza Towers Elementary, were destroyed in the EF-5 tornado that hit the Oklahoma City suburb. Twenty-four people were killed in the storm, including seven students from Plaza Towers Elementary.

On Friday morning, Plaza Towers Elementary students started a new school year with therapy dogs and a large banner that read "Plaza Towers Elementary School. Welcome."

The approximate 300 students are using a facility formerly used by the Central Junior High School, now nicknamed "Plaza 800," a combination of the elementary school's name and the building's former nickname.
Quoting 2309. JeffStang:
Today marks the 44th anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille here on the MS Gulf Coast. I'm thankful still that I only remember parts of it due to my age.


It and Allen are the only 2 recorded storms to hit land with wind speeds of 190 MPH. Some speculate the the wind speed could have been higher, but Camille destroyed all the speed monitors
Quoting 2347. hurricanehanna:
...morning. 92l stalled ? Does this change the chance of development now ? Did I miss why it is no longer shown on the WU map ?


We're employing reverse psychology. Since put on the map, it has refused to do anything but got a lot of attention. Figure that, if we ignore it, it might actually do something.

On a serious note, convection seems to be firing on the surface trough of low pressure, aided by, but not directly from, the (still, i insist) weakening ULL. If anything is gonna occur, it'll be in the next 36 hrs.
Quoting 2331. Grothar:



That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing. :)


on the other hand, I actually enjoy people squabbling over similar viewpoints.
2356. LargoFl
36-48 hours,models bring it up to TS...
Quoting 2352. ncstorm:
Oklahoma Tornado Survivors Start New School Year



Been featured predominantly here. Obviously, there is a range of emotions associated with it.
2358. Grothar
Quoting 2355. MisterPerfect:


on the other hand, I actually enjoy people squabbling over similar viewpoints.


LOL.
I really think this season is gonna be as boring as 06 and 09 and i hated the two seasons booorrrrriiinnngggg.
Quoting 2354. daddyjames:


We're employing reverse psychology. Since put on the map, it has refused to do anything but got a lot of attention. Figure that, if we ignore it, it might actually do something.

On a serious note, convection seems to be firing on the surface trough of low pressure, aided by, but not directly from, a the (still, i insist) weakening ULL. If anything is gonna occur, it'll be in the next 36 hrs.

reverse psychology..whoda thunk ? lol

yeah, I see the refiring on the satellite imagery. This has been one aggravating little system.
Quoting 2138. LargoFl:
I wonder why the local mets increased rain chances in the 7-day?


Because moisture will remain deep, and an easterly flow will return with high pressure building back over the southeast. The difference is that we will have more sun and less high clouds, and greater instability with cooling mid level temps compared to the last few days.

I truly believe the next several days will be wetter than the previous few, even though Thursday and yesterday were supposed to be very wet days. Technically, last nights activity was actually today's since it moved in after midnight.
2362. Grothar
Quoting 2354. daddyjames:


We're employing reverse psychology. Since put on the map, it has refused to do anything but got a lot of attention. Figure that, if we ignore it, it might actually do something.

On a serious note, convection seems to be firing on the surface trough of low pressure, aided by, but not directly from, the (still, i insist) weakening ULL. If anything is gonna occur, it'll be in the next 36 hrs.


The convection has been steadily increasing all morning. Either that or it is just getting ready to fire some heavy rain to the Northeast.
2013 Florida summary in one word:

RAIN

Quoting 2345. beeleeva:
We ar definitely in need of 92L s rain in Katy, Tx...


We are in need of rain in Corpus Christi TX too. It is just so dry here. Was hopping for something from 92L although our local meteorologists (and I use that term loosely) said no way jose would we get rain from 92L.
(sigh)
Quoting 2353. oceanspringsMS:


It and Allen are the only 2 recorded storms to hit land with wind speeds of 190 MPH. Some speculate the the wind speed could have been higher, but Camille destroyed all the speed monitors


Anemometer at Keesler broke at 167 if I remember correctly..I was 15 yrs old living in the Fla panhandle. We tied flare parachutes to our
bicycles and got pulled along by steady 30 mph
winds all the next day after Camilles landfall..
2366. LargoFl
Quoting 2361. Jedkins01:


Because moisture will remain deep, and an easterly flow will return with high pressure building back over the southeast. The difference is that we will have more sun and less high clouds, and greater instability with cooling mid level temps compared to the last few days.

I truly believe the next several days will be wetter than the previous few, even though Thursday and yesterday were supposed to be very wet days. Technically, last nights activity was actually today's since it moved in after midnight.
yeah yesterday was 50% and i got about 3 raindrops lol..well we'll see what happens..west coast seabreeze is supposed to be stuck along the west coast for awhile..that should help rain chances.
Well, I will start looking forward to the 213-14 winter, since there's nothing interesting going on

Link

2368. LargoFl
Quoting 2362. Grothar:


The convection has been steadily increasing all morning. Either that or it is just getting ready to fire some heavy rain to the Northeast.


I'm not sure that that this convection will be fired off up to the north so quickly. it does not appear to be directly associated/influenced by the ULL or the trough at the moment.

Heck, the GC certainly could use a breather.
Quoting 2356. LargoFl:
36-48 hours,models bring it up to TS...

Just looks like a frontal boundary to me. This is exactly what a lot of the models were showing at times. Area of elongated convection bringing rain to the NE Gulf Coast.
2371. Hhunter
Quoting 2367. CaneHunter031472:
Well, I will start looking forward to the 213-14 winter, since there's nothing interesting going on

Link



be patient its coming very soon..
2372. LargoFl
not only rain up there but possible BAD weather along with it..stay alert folks........................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FLC035-109-171405-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-130817T1400Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-FLAGLER FL-
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 AM EDT...

ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

LAT...LON 2942 8110 2941 8115 2927 8114 2926 8116
2926 8141 2939 8143 2940 8148 2951 8152
2975 8152 2984 8158 3016 8136 2988 8126
2977 8125 2944 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 212DEG 17KT 3006 8125 2966 8121
2946 8136

$$
Quoting 2351. LargoFl:


Well, at least the models have been consistent with 92L.
2374. Grothar
Quoting 2338. ricderr:
That's why I wrote it. I always get a big kick out of when people fight and they are saying the same thing.


i thought as much...but if i didn't respond although i should have been more huffy...we couldn't continue a mad war over the subject....and by the way...not only am i right and you wrong...i was first!


Always good to start the day with laugh. Seriously, I will be watching this one yet.

2376. Thrawst
.
2377. Dakster
Quoting 2336. Grothar:


Not for me. I can see a number of you have had trouble with the poor thing. (and it ain't over yet.


I am beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel for 92L. I just hope it isn't the train coming my way.
Quoting 2369. daddyjames:


I'm not sure that that this convection will be fired off up to the north so quickly. it does not appear to be directly associated/influenced by the ULL or the trough at the moment.

Heck, the GC certainly could use a breather.

Well I'm at the epicenter of the rain here near Ft. Walton Beach Florida. And both because all the rain just runs through the sandy soil and then I live on a sandhill, a lot of this area doesn't have the flooding problems you would find in places that have pure clay or something else that doesn't drain.
2379. LargoFl
Quoting 2373. daddyjames:


Well, at least the models have been consistent with 92L.
yes it seems so. especially where the rains are going
2380. LargoFl

..TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: A BIT BELOW AVERAGE

A WEAK SURFACE LOW/WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ITS 00Z/17 POSITION WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z GUIDANCE BY SUN MORNING OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF SHOWS ENOUGH OF A DEFINED SURFACE LOW...CLOSE
IN POSITION TO THE GFS/UKMET TO INCLUDE IT IN THE PREFERENCE.
THEREFORE...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENT AN AGREEMENT
WITH TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL AND ATCF GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WITH
PRIOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...NHC...CAUTIONS THIS SYSTEM HAS A
40% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALWAYS REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM.

...UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
CA...

PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GFS HAS HELD VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER ITS PAST THREE 12/00Z RUNS...WITH OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING
TOWARD THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY. THE GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS BY TUE MORNING AND HAS AGREEMENT FROM THE 00Z NAM
AND 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z CMC/UKMET CONTINUE TO BE A BIT WEST OF
THESE MODELS...BUT NOT BY MUCH AND FALL COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
SHRINKING SPREAD SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS.
STRONG RIDGING WHICH HAS HELD STEADY FOR SOME TIME NOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT RANGE...THROUGH 12Z/20.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
..500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML

OTTO
Dr. Masters:

"In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively".

Doc has a little over 13 hours for his 70% odds to be 100% correct for Sunday. I give the correctness of his odds 20% in six hours and 30% in 12 hours for his 70% odds for Sunday. I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.
2382. Dakster
Quoting 2381. MisterPerfect:
Dr. Masters:

"In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively".

Doc has a little over 13 hours for his 70% odds to be 100% correct for Sunday. I give the correctness of his odds 20% in six hours and 30% in 12 hours for his 70% odds for Sunday. I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.


They say the figures never lie, but liars always figure.
Quoting 2382. Dakster:


They say the figures never lie, but liars always figure.


110%
2384. ricderr
I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.



hmmm...must not be grading on the curve
Quoting 2384. ricderr:
I give his 80% Wednesday odds 50% for correctness.



hmmm...must not be grading on the curve


No. Points off for MLA errors too.
2386. ricderr
here's one i like...the blog is flowing smoothly.....things are moderately on topic...and someone will have to post this....


When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.


look ma.....i'm a mod...LMAO


Quoting 2264. IKE:

Glad I got my new tin roof last fall. Unbelievable rains.


"Tin roof... Rusted!"

Didn't know you lived in the love shack! :-P
WV on the increase right along the northern gulf coast. At least 10% more than earlier, easily.

well nothing too exciting in the tropics today. I am still keeping an eye on the area of disturbed weather in the CATL near 47W. since the detachment of Erin from the ITCZ. it has now allowed convection to build in this general area 12N 47w. Although vorticity is not as strong as yesterday, i still expect the 850mb vorticity to improve. no matter what happens with this disturbance I believe it is a fore runner of what to expect , come the next 6 weeks.
2390. LargoFl
skeeters are really going to swarm after this whew..
2391. ricderr
thank you for that graphic rmadillo which points out what i've been saying for three days now....there is an eye


ricderr...100 percent correct...and my bs don't stank either
Quoting 2336. Grothar:


Not for me. I can see a number of you have had trouble with the poor thing. (and it ain't over yet.


Is it really stalled?
Link

could be localized but the 001 buoy in the central gulf swithched to west in the last hour.
Quoting 2391. ricderr:
thank you for that graphic rmadillo which points out what i've been saying for three days now....there is an eye


ricderr...100 percent correct...and my bs don't stank either


I saw it 16 hours before you did.
2395. ricderr
well nothing too exciting in the tropics today


what man???....are you daft???....we have a ts fishkiller out there....there's decimated flying fish floundering (get it? flounder?)on the surface...

here in the gulf we have a cat 5 wannabe....24 hours until major.....and headed straight to tampa...
2396. ricderr
I saw it 16 hours before you did.




i liked you better when you were a troll....LMAO
Quoting 2395. ricderr:
well nothing too exciting in the tropics today


what man???....are you daft???....we have a ts fishkiller out there....there's decimated flying fish floundering (get it? flounder?)on the surface...

here in the gulf we have a cat 5 wannabe....24 hours until major.....and headed straight to tampa...


.05%
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.
2399. ricderr
by the way mp....isn't it great to be back.....i think i might even have to create a blog
2400. ncstorm


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

NCC129-171645-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0107.130817T1449Z-130817T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

CENTRAL NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1046 AM EDT RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
MONKEY JUNCTION MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MASONBORO...MYRTLE GROVE...OGDEN...SEAGATE...SILVER LAKE...SMITH
CREEK...WILMINGTON...WINDEMERE...WRIGHTSBORO AND UNCW CAMPUS.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND STREAM
FLOWS ARE ELEVATED. FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM NEAR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND LOW SPOTS ALONG ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS. FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3418 7781 3417 7782 3405 7788 3405 7792
3429 7796 3429 7778
Pressure rising at the buoy.
Quoting 2398. Rmadillo:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.

Agreed. If you look at all the surface obs. you could draw a sharp U from pensacola to the western tip of the yucatan with southerly winds on the east side and northerly on the west.
Actually not far off from what the GFS had drawn out several days ago.
2403. Dakster
Anyone else waiting for MisterPerfect's avatar to take flight? Maybe birdman can do a recon run for us?

Gro, Cat 4 Major in the GOM as 92L stalls and gains strength?
Quoting 2398. Rmadillo:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.


They won't. The gulf is too warm. The east coast is a different story. Of course as we saw with Dorian, once the NHC sends a storm to the corner, it creates a tantrum and stays annoying for the next 36 hours.
Quoting 2401. Rmadillo:
Pressure rising at the buoy.

You got a link?
Some locations along coast of fl panhandle now over 5" so far with unofficial rain totals.
Quoting 2403. Dakster:
Anyone else waiting for MisterPerfect's avatar to take flight? Maybe birdman can do a recon run for us?

Gro, Cat 4 Major in the GOM as 92L stalls and gains strength?


+1
2408. ncstorm
2409. pcola57
Not too bad yet as the Ducks are digging it for sure..
I did put my "floaties" on though.. :)

CMC error (nm) at 72hrs there on the right..

CMC 46.9 96.8 164.3 21.2
In saying that above though you still can't take your eye off of swirls anywhere close to home in 85 degree water.
Quoting 2405. Skyepony:

You got a link?


Sure thing.

Link

Was as low as 29.89 but now back on the rise.
Quoting 2409. pcola57:
Not too bad yet as the Ducks are digging it for sure..
I did put my "floaties" on though.. :)


See this people...Floridians are always prepared. Way to go Pco57. +1
2414. barbamz
Hello everybody on the other sides of the screens, some in the heat, some in the rain of strange 92L ...
Moreover the fire season reaches another summit, unfortunately:

Major wildfires burn in Idaho (with video report)
August 17, 2013, 8:05 am

NECN/NBC News: Kurt Gregory) - Fueled by strong, gusty winds and tinder dry vegetation, several raging infernos are burning out of control in Idaho. Of greatest concern is the massive Beaver Creek fire, spreading and forcing evacuation orders for more than 1,500 homes.

In addition, pre-evacuation orders are in effect for the resort towns of Ketchum and Sun Valley, putting people on notice they could be asked to flee at a moments notice.

Thousands of residents and vacationers are watching closely and weighing their options.

Heavy traffic lined the highways out of town, a strong indication many people aren't willing to take any chances.

Meanwhile, hundreds of state and federal firefighters were dispatched to fight the wildfire while those within its reach are keeping a wary eye to the horizon.
looks like 92L is done and erin is almost dead. that wave off africa has a strong vorticity, GFS develops this wave.
Quoting 2398. Rmadillo:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.

Respectfully disagree. Look at it's percentage by the nhc still. If this was a 0% then it would be deactivated. Looks to me this is still a threat to develop.
Quoting 2415. wunderweatherman123:
looks like 92L is done and erin is almost dead. that wave off africa has a strong vorticity, GFS develops this wave.


I'm guessing you aren't a fan of Dr. M's 70% odds of 92L developing either?
IMO, the odds on 92L should be decreased to 20/30%, this is no longer a threat to develop.
PEWA looking odd..



Quoting 2418. CybrTeddy:
IMO, the odds on 92L should be decreased to 20/30%, this is no longer a threat to develop.


I give your odds of 20%/30% for development 80%/80.5%
2421. Kyon5

Quoting 2412. Rmadillo:


Sure thing.

Link

Was as low as 29.89 but now back on the rise.


Thanks..winds are coming down too. That buoy is pretty far north of the mess.
It's mostly rained all night and morning here in PC. I just noticed the corner of my neighbor's house is already in water and most of their yard is going under. Drainage ditches up to the road now. We have some heavy stuff moving in again now. Ugh.
Quoting 2423. ricderr:
PEWA looking odd..


wrong picture there.......spaceshot of a polar bear looking for ice


I see that image too, but I saw it 1 minute before you did.
PEWA with it's invest friend to the NE in the CPAC..all together looking definitely odd:P

Quoting 2418. CybrTeddy:
IMO, the odds on 92L should be decreased to 20/30%, this is no longer a threat to develop.
once the wave fully emerges off africa, should they invest it right away?
FWIW, CNN is reporting that 92L is expected to "explode" in the Gulf of Mexico.

How typical.
2429. SLU
We're going to have to watch this wave very closely over the next week as it slowly traverses westward.
Quoting 2428. CybrTeddy:
FWIW, CNN is reporting that 92L is expected to "explode" in the Gulf of Mexico.

How typical.


That was so yesterday - today it gonna go nuclear!
What a boring hurricane season. Here we are in august and storms are still getting sheared to pieces and choking on dry air. Looks like we are entering an unactive phase.
Quoting 2416. RGVtropicalWx13:

Respectfully disagree. Look at it's percentage by the nhc still. If this was a 0% then it would be deactivated. Looks to me this is still a threat to develop.


Yeah I don't think they will either. But I do think they should.

They will back away slowly from it by lowering percentages and finally acknowledging that the main event is just the rain that is being amplified by pulses of energy riding along the dip in the jet.

Nothing tropical in the offing in my estimation, which is always right, except when it isn't.
2435. Dakster
Quoting 2432. daddyjames:


That was so yesterday - today it gonna go nuclear!


Weren't they evacuating oil rigs yesterday?
More than 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of rain fell on the Amur, Khabarovsk and Primorye regions from July 1 through Aug. 12, causing floods there and in the neighboring Jewish Autonomous Region, according to data from the weather center. Some areas in the Far East received a year’s rain in the period, the center said yesterday.

“We have never seen such a large-scale flood in our country’s history,” Alexander Frolov, chief forecaster at the center, said today on state television channel Rossiya 24. “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.”


Link
2437. pcola57
What a mess..



Quoting 2435. Dakster:


Weren't they evacuating oil rigs yesterday?


Only if they were watching CNN. ;)
It's not over till mother nature says it's over for 92L. It'll still develop but into a minimal ts of 40-45mph at landfall. IMO
2440. Patrap
Looking up outside I can see the upper battle.

Wonderful north wind in LA providing relief from the sweltering sweaty sweat weather!

August must be the new October.
Good day everybody. Yesterday was the 2nd day of school and everything was chaotic .....got some time today so Hi everybody I see I haven't missed that much...that wave near Africa looks good...Erin dying
come on...if we all write the system off it will explode!!!
Sky my point for bringing up the 001 buoy was the wind switch to west.
You can pretty much shut down the 2013 hurricane season. The system in the gulf will not develop. Erin in about done. There are several systems lined up in Africa poised to come off the coast and some look promising. But with the persistent TUTT across the gulf and the western Atlantic nothing can develop. Also the very dry air and the SAL across the MDR of the Atlantic is remaining persistent and in fact is becoming more extensive across the region. There are going to be more systems that will initially will pop up from time to time in the tropics, but as they move into the conditions mentioned above they will fall apart and dissipate. These conditions are forecast to persist for the remainder of the season. Soon waters in the northern portion of the tropical Atlantic will begin to cool with the forecast of an earlier than normal fall season beginning in September. We espect to have a total of only 10 named storms this season and the formation of 0 hurricanes.
Quoting 2433. Matt1989:
What a boring hurricane season. Here we are in august and storms are still getting sheared to pieces and choking on dry air. Looks like we are entering an unactive phase.


"I cannot teach him, the boy has no patience."

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


That storm, after a mostly inactive August, became Major Hurricane Danielle and lead the way to an incredibly active August and September. The models are telling us this will occur soon as well as numerous Cape Verde hurricanes are possible.

00z GFS 384 hours illustrates what I mean, with the hurricane near the US coast being the African wave emerging off Africa now.


And what the heck is an "unactive" phase? The word you're looking for is an "inactive" phase.
2446. Dakster
Quoting 2438. daddyjames:


Only if they were watching CNN. ;)


I now that this is highly unlike me... But I was actually being serious.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-08-15/bus iness/sns-rt-us-storm-gulfofmexico-energy-20130815 _1_thunder-horse-oil-and-gas-platforms-nonessentia l-workers

Link
Quoting 2441. Rmadillo:
Wonderful north wind in LA providing relief from the sweltering sweaty sweat weather!

August must be the new October.

It is this year.
Pat,

I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.
2449. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
400 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2013


Short term...
scenario painted yesterday morning and carried through on the
afternoon package is still in play for today's forecast. The upper low
pressure system located off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula is
spinning prominently in water vapor satellite imagery and is
nearly stationary approximately 22.3n latitude...90.5w longitude.
Convection was beginning to band in the northwest quadrant along
a stretching axis extended from the col located to the northwest
of the circulation. This feature is key in ultimatly determining
eventual track of this low pressure system. GFS model streamline
analysis aloft would suggest the col structure collapses in
response to digging trough later today...being replaced by deep
layered convergent flow from the central Gulf waters into the
central coastal region. Meanwhile...cut-off low over the middle of
the country with attendant jet structure extending from the southeast la
coast...through Alabama into the eastern Tennessee Valley. Right
rear quadrant dynamic lift poised vicinity of the Mississippi
River Delta to enhance convection and induce a weak surface
reflection low pressure center later today into this evening.
Surface frontolytic environment would also be conducive of low
level cyclogenesis. Convective feedback from south Gulf low will
be advecting northward today and become involved with north Gulf
low pressure developments to provide a brief period of enhanced
winds and seas in the marine areas east of the Mississippi River.
Forecast considerations over land areas would be efficient
rainfall processes across the Mississippi coastal counties where
best Gulf inflow would converge along frontolytic boundary draped
across that area and extending back across lower Plaquemines
Parish. Will indicate probability of precipitation ranging from 20 percent or less western
portions of forecast area /btr area/ where dry air influences
should limit coverage...to 70 percent in aforementioned areas of
higher impacts for today and this evening. The north Gulf low
pressure area /possible wake low aspects/ move inland overnight
and rapidly advance to the Tennessee Valley Sunday. This passage
should nudge the drier air aloft farther eastward to destabilize
column for Sunday to present a greater chance of downburst pulse
type convection during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile...lower Gulf
system should continue to move westward in time but upper support
may suppress development unless movement becomes more south of
west where shear would be minimal and influences from upper cut-
off low would be negligible. Nevertheless...no local impacts are
anticipated from this system aside from the convective
contributions heading our way today.
2450. Dakster
Quoting 2444. interpreter:
You can pretty much shut down the 2013 hurricane season. The system in the gulf will not develop. Erin in about done. There are several systems lined up in Africa poised to come off the coast and some look promising. But with the persistent TUTT across the gulf and the western Atlantic nothing can develop. Also the very dry air and the SAL across the MDR of the Atlantic is remaining persistent and in fact is becoming more extensive across the region. There are going to be more systems that will initially will pop up from time to time in the tropics, but as they move into the conditions mentioned above they will fall apart and dissipate. These conditions are forecast to persist for the remainder of the season. Soon waters in the northern portion of the tropical Atlantic will begin to cool with the forecast of an earlier than normal fall season beginning in September. We espect to have a total of only 10 named storms this season and the formation of 0 hurricanes.


And Today in 1992, What will be come Hurricane Andrew - the FIRST storm of that season - has just formed.

Or course, you could be correct in that nothing will form too.
Quoting 2412. Rmadillo:


Sure thing.

Link

Was as low as 29.89 but now back on the rise.


As soon as I noted the drop in winds they went back up..


haha derr~ Right here.. behave! lol..


ERIN click pic for loop..
2452. Dakster
Quoting 2448. AllyBama:
Pat,

I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.


You're going to be rolling with the tide?
Quoting 2450. Dakster:


And Today in 1992, What will be come Hurricane Andrew - the FIRST storm of that season - has just formed.

Or course, you could be correct in that nothing will form too.


No use on quoting interpreter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.
2454. Patrap
Quoting 2448. AllyBama:
Pat,

I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.



Indeed allybama, some are gonna get Rain they def dont need.

2433. Matt1989 thats what im saying its like these seasons just keep being busts they are not like how they used 2 be.
2456. Dakster
Quoting 2453. CybrTeddy:


No use on quoting interpeter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.


Thanks -- I guess the facts just get in the way then?
Quoting 2445. CybrTeddy:


"I cannot teach him, the boy has no patience."

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


That storm, after a mostly inactive August, became Major Hurricane Danielle and lead the way to an insanely active August and September. The models are telling us this will occur soon as well as numerous Cape Verde hurricanes are possible.

00z GFS 384 hours illustrates what I mean, with the hurricane near the US coast being the African wave emerging off Africa now.



and to add on to teddy check out our Mojo too. Sounds pretty accurate what teddy saying.
Quoting 2446. Dakster:


I now that this is highly unlike me... But I was actually being serious.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-08-15/bus iness/sns-rt-us-storm-gulfofmexico-energy-20130815 _1_thunder-horse-oil-and-gas-platforms-nonessentia l-workers

Link


Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.

Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).
2459. TxLisa
Quoting 2352. ncstorm:
Oklahoma Tornado Survivors Start New School Year



Nearly three months after a massive tornado wound through Moore, Okla., destroying two elementary schools on the last day of school, parents and students headed back to class Friday for the first day of the new school year.

Two elementary schools, Briarwood and Plaza Towers Elementary, were destroyed in the EF-5 tornado that hit the Oklahoma City suburb. Twenty-four people were killed in the storm, including seven students from Plaza Towers Elementary.

On Friday morning, Plaza Towers Elementary students started a new school year with therapy dogs and a large banner that read "Plaza Towers Elementary School. Welcome."

The approximate 300 students are using a facility formerly used by the Central Junior High School, now nicknamed "Plaza 800," a combination of the elementary school's name and the building's former nickname.
Thoughts and prayers go out to those young children starting a new school year. As an elementary school counselor, I can truly say the death of those seven children will never be forgotten by the school personnel even as they start over. Thanks for the picture and text:)
Quoting 2420. MisterPerfect:


I give your odds of 20%/30% for development 80%/80.5%

Let me check the math 20% divided by pie multiplied by 6 plus 2000 minus 1999 carry the 6 = yea I would say your correct. ( I think I blew a vessel in my head)
Currently 92L is very weak. Upper Level low combined with bone dry air to its West.

NAM offers the best solution for Texas.
12z NAM at 60 hours
2462. gator23
Quoting 2428. CybrTeddy:
FWIW, CNN is reporting that 92L is expected to "explode" in the Gulf of Mexico.

How typical.


That was annoying but if you watch the video he does couch it a lot
4.7" and counting in Gulf Breeze...
2464. centex
The low level vort has really elongated in last 12 hours. Normally means weakening but I'm not sure when low level vort increases under ULL.

2465. Dakster
Quoting 2458. daddyjames:


Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.

Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).


I didn't take offense - trust me... I thought I was being messed with when it was first posted.

I didn't think 'non-essential' people would be on an oil rig either. IIRC, someone on the blog here works or worked on a rig, maybe they will chime in on who these non-essential folks are?
2468. Patrap
Quoting 2458. daddyjames:


Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.

Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).


Service hands.

Utility folk,

Quoting 2452. Dakster:


You're going to be rolling with the tide?


lol...and in more ways than one! I actually live about a mile or so out of the flood zone in Mobile. So if it ever flooded at my house everything east of I-65 and south of Hwy 90 would be underwater bigtime!
Oh yeah, ROLL TIDE!
Quoting 2468. Patrap:


Service hands.

Utility folk,



had faith that you would know.
2471. Dakster
Quoting 2470. daddyjames:


had faith that you would know.


What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?
Quoting 2462. gator23:


That was annoying but if you watch the video he does couch it a lot


Come on, it was ridiculous. did not serve the public at all, and is a prime example of the over-dramatization of the "news".

Now, back to the impending doom developing in the BOC/SE Gulf ;)
Pewa looks likely to cross the International date line and strengthen in the western Pacific as a typhoon. We haven't seen something like this as Ioke, although naturally it'll be much weaker.
Quoting 2471. Dakster:


What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?


Ask patrap - not me.
Quoting 2436. ColoradoBob1:
More than 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of rain fell on the Amur, Khabarovsk and Primorye regions from July 1 through Aug. 12, causing floods there and in the neighboring Jewish Autonomous Region, according to data from the weather center. Some areas in the Far East received a year’s rain in the period, the center said yesterday.

“We have never seen such a large-scale flood in our country’s history,” Alexander Frolov, chief forecaster at the center, said today on state television channel Rossiya 24. “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.”


Link


From the article “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.” That's a huge area, about a thousand miles between the two.

Thanks for posting.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
new blog folks. Dr. JM upped the ante.
Why you guys continue to quote people that are only here to disrupt the blog is beyond me.
Quoting 2453. CybrTeddy:


No use on quoting interpreter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.

The conditions are different and the weather pattern more persistent than in those previous analog seasons you referred to. Nothing on the horizon now. I do think the tropics will be relatively quite until mid-September. No threats to the US this year. You don't have to worry about billions of dollars of damage happening somewhere this year in the Atlantic.
2480. Patrap
Quoting 2471. Dakster:


What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?


Laundry,

Galley, Food

Cleaning

Service hand can be from electricians to contract divers working on the rig as well.

There are many jobs offshore besides driller,Crane operator, Safety Man, Company Man.Safety folk, Toolpusher(Rig Boss), Derrick hands...etc.


Hercules 21 and me in mid 90's, for Chevron.



Now for a production platform they are many, many, more

Buoy closest to 92L is reporting NNE at 16 mph, wave heights 4.3 ft.
29.91 pressure.

Quoting 2455. weatherman994:
2433. Matt1989 thats what im saying its like these seasons just keep being busts they are not like how they used 2 be.


I have to ask. Do either you or Matt1989 live along the coast? I wonder.
I admit I love seeing the formation of a beautiful storm, it is truly a gift from nature...and as much as I enjoy the adrenalin rush when a storm enters the gulf, I do not enjoy the destruction and pain that a storm brings. I am not crying and whining if a storm doesn't form this year. I will get down on my knees and thank God that lives, homes and property were not destroyed and that the storms are "not like how they used 2 be"..
Quoting 2478. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why you guys continue to quote people that are only here to disrupt the blog is beyond me.

Sorry not saying what you would like to hear. Need to face the facts that the conditions for this season do provide tropical cyclone development and that these conditions thankfully will persist throughout the remainder of this season.
Quoting 2366. LargoFl:
yeah yesterday was 50% and i got about 3 raindrops lol..well we'll see what happens..west coast seabreeze is supposed to be stuck along the west coast for awhile..that should help rain chances.


Yeah coverage looks like it will be good today, developing southeast flow and a lot more sun today. Not full heating, but a lot more heating than the overcast conditions that dominated 80 to 90% of the last 2 days.
2485. hydrus
Quoting 2433. Matt1989:
What a boring hurricane season. Here we are in august and storms are still getting sheared to pieces and choking on dry air. Looks like we are entering an unactive phase.
It looks like that now mat, even the models show little in activity ,but things can change quick. The is alot of low pressure out there and waves to watch, and there will be many more.
There has to be some flooding going on up in the Panhandle.



Nice why does it seem this is the only model glitching out lately?

2487. mfcmom
Quoting 2486. GTstormChaserCaleb:
There has to be some flooding going on up in the Panhandle.



Nice why does it seem this is the only model glitching out lately?


There already is. It is just awful. Panama City is getting pounded.
2488. vis0
Quoting 2272. EcoLogic:
Attention panhandle Sunday school teachers...time to break out your Genesis 7 lesson
Was that the part where Sonic went into space!...SEGA!
2489. vis0
Quoting 2303. Dakster:


Do they still put tail numbers on mosquitos in Defuniak?

I'm sure with all the rain you have been having they must be out in DROVES.

those are not yellow-jackets, they're mosquitoes w/life life-jackets.
Quoting 2481. Sfloridacat5:
Buoy closest to 92L is reporting NNE at 16 mph, wave heights 4.3 ft.
29.91 pressure.




There is no 92L plzs call it ex 92L
You all know that you are not allowed to talk about your beautiful cold weather! Unless it is "unprecedented" you will get shot down.