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Utor Pounds China; Japan Breaks All-Time Heat Record; Caribbean Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

Category 2 Typhoon Utor is closing in on Southeast China, where it is expected to come ashore near 08 UTC (4 am EDT) on Wednesday, about 150 miles southwest of Hong Kong. Widespread heavy rains are already falling across much of Southeast China, as seen on Hong Kong radar and China radar. Satellite imagery shows that Utor is a large typhoon, and will dump torrential rains capable of causing deadly flash floods and mudslides over much of Southeast China and Northern Vietnam over the next three days; a wide swath of 6+ inches of rain is predicted over a 24-hour period for Southeast China using satellite estimates of the typhoon's current rainfall intensity. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains will fall just south of an area of extreme drought responsible for $6 billion in damages so far in 2013 (Figure 2.) Utor has drawn in some dry air and is slowly weakening, and should make landfall as a Category 2 storm.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Utor from August 13, 2013 taken at 17:12 local time (10:12 am EDT.) Image credit: Meteorological Bureau of Shenzhen Municipality.

A rough summer for extreme weather in China
China has already experienced five billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013. This is the most of any nation, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Utor is likely to the be sixth such disaster. The five Chinese billion-dollar weather disasters have all hit this summer:

1) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 7/31: $6.0 billion
2) Flooding, nationwide, 7/7 - 7/17: $4.5 billion
3) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11: $1.6 billion
4) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3: $1.4 billion
5) Flooding, China, 7/21 - 7/25: $1.4 billion

The most expensive of the these disasters, the $6 billion drought that hit Eastern China, helped intensify a remarkable and historic heat wave that assaulted Eastern China in July and August. In his latest post, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt writes:

Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China (as well as central and southern Japan, and South Korea). I cannot think of any other heat event that has affected so many people for so long (including those that plagued the U.S. in the mid 1930s, Russia in 2010, and Western Europe in August 2003). Obviously, the Chinese authorities are keeping the fatalities from this ongoing event under wraps.

The Eastern China heat wave moved northwards and eastwards over Korea and Japan over the past few days, and brought Japan its all-time national heat record on August 12, 2013, when the temperature peaked at 41.0°C (105.8°F) at the Ekawasaki site in Shimanto. The previous record of 40.9°C (105.6°F) was recorded at Tajima and Kumagaya on August 16, 2007. the record heat wave also brought stiflingly hot weather to Tokyo, which on August 11 endured its warmest daily minimum temperature ever recorded: 30.4°C (86.7°F). This was also the 2nd warmest minimum on record for Japan.


Figure 2. Widespread drought over Eastern and Southeast China has caused at least $6 billion in damage, according to Aon Benfield. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.

The Philippines clean up after Utor
The Philippines are cleaning up after Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday), as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. At least 3 deaths are being blamed on the storm, and 54 people are missing, mostly fishermen. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 2. Typhoon Utor approaches the Philippines in this 375 meter-resolution IR image taken by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 04:34 UTC August 11, 2013. At the time, Utor was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins.

Caribbean tropical wave may develop when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Jamaica today, and this activity will spread westwards into the Cayman Islands by Wednesday, and into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots over the the wave, making development very unlikely through Wednesday. However, once the wave reaches the Western Caribbean on Thursday and pushes into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form. If a tropical depression or tropical storm does form, and its circulation extends high above the surface, a trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico would likely steer the storm northwards to a landfall between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution presented by the Navy's 00Z run of the NAVGEM model, which shows a landfall on Saturday of a moderate-strength tropical storm. The other reliable models for genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET--do not develop the system, or show very weak development. The European model takes much of the wave's moisture west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, but the other models show the main moisture heading northwards into the Southeast U.S. Soils across the Southeast U.S. are already saturated, and tropical moisture from this storm system will be capable of dumping a large area of 4+" of rain, potentially causing significant flooding over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 30% of developing by Sunday, and a 10% chance of developing by Thursday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, August 20, 2013. Tropical moisture flowing north and northeastwards over the Southeast U.S. is expected to create a broad swath of 4+ inches of rain, capable of triggering damaging flooding. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Resilience to Extreme Weather panel discussion being livestreamed today (Tuesday)
The 6th annual National Clean Energy Summit is today, Tuesday, August 13, and will be livestreamed here. Of particular interest may be the 6pm EDT panel on Resilience to Extreme Weather, featuring:

- Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Acting Under Secretary of Commerce, Oceans and Atmosphere and Acting Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Maria LaRosa, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
- Patricia Mulroy, General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
- Chris Taylor, Executive Director, West Coast Infrastructure Exchange

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Extreme Weather Drought Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. TimSoCal:


That Southern Hemisphere invest can't be right, can it? It's the dead of winter down there.


It is & has persisted for days so far..
Quoting 497. CybrTeddy:


Impressive, the UKMET really likes 92L.


Wow. It looks like things are stting up for at least some sort of tropical system developing in the GOMEX. Wonder what the conditions there will be by then.
What!!? Listen, I came here for an argument!

Oh...sorry, this is ABUSE, you want Room 12A, next door...

Quoting 495. opal92nwf:
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">


There are bloggers here that were born around the time of Wilma.. or so it feels sometimes.
Quoting 497. CybrTeddy:


Impressive, the UKMET really likes 92L.
I've learned Ted that storms seem to develop jealousy of each other.lol.Since people are more interested in 93L 92L may sneak up on us.
Quoting 485. catastropheadjuster:


Thank you LAbonbon, and everyone. I promise it is really really bad. Thunder is shaking our building.

sheri


I can definitely see the line of storms dropping down on you. It's part of the same line just going over me now, but yours looks worse.

As a couple of backup sites, there's NWS (which you're likely well aware of), which I like to use, because it includes all the HWO's and SWS's in addition to watches and warnings on their maps. Link

Also, I love the site out of my city (Baton Rouge) Link This site covers the whole coast, you can zoom in to neighborhood level, and if you click the 'Layers' button on the right you can overlay any warnings, expected severe weather, etc. I keep it up all the time whenever tornados are a possibility.

Good luck and stay safe.
Quoting 498. mitchelace5:


I was age 10 at that time.

I wasn't 13 yet
Are the floaters for invest 92 and 93L up yet?
Quoting 481. Matt74:
You better fear Tony Romo this year. Nice avatar btw.

lol....I think Romo will do quite well this year. Thanks for the avatar note.
Thank god for the investS, you can hear the website taking a collective sigh of relief because of them!



What about this wave in front of 93L it looks really good right now
Quoting 509. 62901IL:
Are the floaters for invest 92 and 93L up yet?


Not yet but soon.
Quoting 512. Civicane49:


Not yet but soon.

OK!
A NOAA Weather Alert Radio SHOULD be in everyone's home.


Quoting 514. Patrap:
A NOAA Weather Alert Radio SHOULD be in everyone's home.




At least a good app on your phones.
Quoting 479. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm pretty sure that is Grothar's Blobzilla. :D...By the way nice to have you back on Washi, it seems as though you brought some luck with you as well as things were getting a bit boring in here without your presence.


Boy is Gro going to be surprised when he gets back.
Joe Bastardi
ECMWF MJO says lets get ready to rumble later next week and beyond in tropics. Phase 2,3 hyper phases
Quoting 498. mitchelace5:


I was age 10 at that time.
Quoting 508. opal92nwf:

I wasn't 13 yet


{sigh} I'm not gonna say how young I was at that time. please stop, it hurts ;)
Quoting 496. daddyjames:


Wow, you really know how to make some of us feel old - still driving the car with the dented roof from Wilma ;)
You're old he made me feel young was in the 11th grade and by the way I didn't welcome you back to the blog, nice to have you back.
I see invest 92L moving west for a day then moving wnw for a few days and start to move back to the weast as a big high to the north and maybe move wsw and move west again!
Quoting 515. CaneHunter031472:


At least a good app on your phones.


LOL Talking about alerts. My phone's app just sent me an alert.
Quoting 519. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're old he made me feel young was in the 11th grade.


You're not helping GT! LOL

I went on vacation, since the tropics seemed to be on vacation. Was down by you for a bit. Thanks for the welcome back.
Any florida gulf coast surfers on here? Any generally known (not asking for secret spots) areas good for a southwestern to west swell? Wishful thinking, but its flat on the east coast...
Quoting 495. opal92nwf:
Wow, the Last time Florida was hit by a hurricane was Wilma. That was sooooo long ago I was like a child then, and now I'm in college! Florida is so due for a hurricane, I would bet that almost for sure it's going to happen next year at the very latest. Although Beryl in 2012 was a close call.
img src="">


I remember thinking the same thing some years after Florida's 1964 double-whammy of Cleo and Isbell. It wouldn't be until 40 years later that Palm Beach County felt any major effects from a hurricane. They go where they will, and by no one elses.
I think stop putting invests on this map!!
only putting tropical d and tropical storm and hurricanes on here.
Quoting 510. 954FtLCane:

lol....I think Romo will do quite well this year. Thanks for the avatar note.
Thank god for the investS, you can hear the website taking a collective sigh of relief because of them!
He will. He just needs to put some playoff wins under his belt. And yes, thankfully there are a couple of areas to track or else this place would be nothing but a big dumpster fire.
I have Keyboards older than some.


Sheesh'

; )
Quoting 522. Patrap:


It sure looks better than Dorian at some points in its life.
Quoting 476. EyEtoEyE:
. Hello GT, When you say a little stronger , do you mean a hurricane ? And do you think West coast of Florida , to the panhandle?
Hi EyE can't rule out the possibility of that, especially this time of the year where the shallow shelf waters are warm, it all comes down to the conditions in the atmosphere i.e. wind shear and dry air. As far as track goes anywhere from Central Louisiana to the Big Bend of FL. needs to watch carefully. If nothing develops this may continue heading west into the low level zonal steering in the Caribbean which would move it over Central America and then the Bay of Campeche.
In my opinion 93L won't bring rain to the N Lesser Antilles, and I fell very sad because of that.
NOLA had 40 years without a Major between Betsy in 1965 and Katrina in 2005.

Since K, we have had Gustav and Issac.


So the odds are never the same, we all have a equal shot at a Major Cane, every year.
Quoting 520. hurricanes2018:
I see invest 92L moving west for a day then moving wnw for a few days and start to move back to the weast as a big high to the north and maybe move wsw and move west again!

will it hit florida!!!!!!!!!
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
16.11N/76.77W
We have a lot out there now we got 92L that upper level low S of.bermuda Heading for FL. That wave in front of 93L wish really looks like a TD right now and 93L I wonder out of all of them I this said wish one would have the best ch of fourming
Quoting 485. catastropheadjuster:


Thank you LAbonbon, and everyone. I promise it is really really bad. Thunder is shaking our building.

sheri


Update:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
213 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ALZ060>064-FLZ001>006-132045-
COVINGTON AL-INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-
INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-UPPER BALDWIN AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-UPPER MOBILE AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-
213 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN COVINGTON...
CENTRAL BALDWIN AND SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
OKALOOSA...SANTA ROSA AND CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES EAST OF FLORALA TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
DIAMONDHEAD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REGIONAL AIRPORT IN WEST MOBILE... MIDTOWN MOBILE...
DOWNTOWN MOBILE... WHITFIELD... PINE LEVEL...
WHITING FIELD... ROEVILLE... POINT BAKER...
PEA RIDGE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 IN FLORIDA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 67.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 IN ALABAMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 66.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW
AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION.








Quoting 514. Patrap:
A NOAA Weather Alert Radio SHOULD be in everyone's home.




They had that same radio on clearance at Wally world for $1. I bought every single one and gave them to family and friends.

I am pretty much a lurker, but wanted to say thank you to everybody that comments on this blog with informative information. The insight is much appreciated. May everybody be safe and prepared as this season starts to ramp up.
Quoting 480. Drakoen:
850mb vorticity has increased with 93L and the maps are showing that it is establishing an upper level outflow.



Yeah, the CIMSS shear maps show an upper level anticyclone centered over the 850mb vorticity center. This is for 93L invest. I think this system could become our first hurricane of the season. Shear will die down along its path as it establishes convection and outflow pattern.
Quoting 526. Patrap:


Wanted to thank you for helping me rebuild my bookmarks; had to kill Chrome the other day.

Anybody have any idea how fast 92L is moving?
544. flsky
Quoting 525. FEMAroadwarrior:
Any florida gulf coast surfers on here? Any generally known (not asking for secret spots) areas good for a southwestern to west swell? Wishful thinking, but its flat on the east coast...


Lot of frustrated surfers here in ECFL. The only time there are waves of any consequence is when there is a storm in the Atlantic.
Anticyclone building in over 92L.

Quoting 541. surfintexas:


They had that same radio on clearance at Wally world for $1. I bought every single one and gave them to family and friends.

I am pretty much a lurker, but wanted to say thank you to everybody that comments on this blog with informative information. The insight is much appreciated. May everybody be safe and prepared as this season starts to ramp up.


When one stops and helps another, or many, he or she is favored by God and the Universe.

Thnak's for bringing that here.

And thank you
Here we go!
Next couple weeks could be a bit bumpy!
Quoting 535. Patrap:
NOLA had 40 years without a Major between Betsy in 1965 and Katrina in 2005.

Since K, we have had Gustav and Issac.


So the odds are never the same, we all have a equal shot at a Major Cane, every year.
It has been 92 years since the last major hurricane directly hit Tampa Bay. Since then we have had some pretty close brushes including Frances and Jeanne that came through the backdoor.


...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING PEARL RIVER COUNTY...ASCENSION PARISH...WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...LIVINGSTON PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...HANCOCK COUNTY...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...JACKSON COUNTY...HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF ESCATAWPA TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVINGTON TO 13 MILES WEST OF PLAQUEMINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SAUCIER...HAMMOND... PLAQUEMINE...WADE...ROBERT...SPRINGFIELD...PRAIRIE VILLE... PONCHATOULA...WHITEHALL...WHITE CASTLE...SORRENTO...MADISONVILLE... KILLIAN...GONZALES...GEISMER...COVINGTON...CARVILL E...BAYOU SORREL... ABITA SPRINGS...VANCLEAVE...PICAYUNE...LYMAN AND ESCATAWPA

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

GEOS-5 goes a little more west with 92L in the GOM then turns it north. Keeps 93L a weak wave heading west.
Quoting 536. Camille33:

will it hit florida!!!!!!!!!

NO!!!!!!!!!!
Why people are interested in a future fish (93L)
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?
This wave in front of 93L may be come 94L




I see a spin to it now.
Quoting 552. CaribBoy:
Why people are interested in a future fish (93L)


This isn't a fish storm.
Quoting 537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
16.11N/76.77W


Is it just me or can you start to see a spin in the low-level cloud deck
Gustav and Isaac were not majors when they hit LA.

but that's ok
Quoting 282. ncstorm:


Really?..calling yoboi???..

you and your counterparts dont have this same thinking when a "denier" raises doubts to your GW thinking..

Nea, you have been nothing but contradictory today..lows are usual but heatwaves are "unprecedented"..my my my..


Lets be clear, no area of science has been studied and peer tested and reviewed in recent years like man driven global warming/climate change. Rarely in science has a consensus been reached like it has in these studies. 97% of climate scientists agree, the science community as a whole completely agrees, it's scientific fact that it's happening. This area of science has been studied like no other in recent years. And as far as heatwaves that are unprecedented; Jeff quotes in his blog, "Virtually every possible heat statistic has been broken for most sites in eastern China, central and southern Japan, and South Korea. That's the definition of unprecedented. The below average temps here in the US are a result of a stuck jet stream that will continue to bring extreme flooding, rainfall amounts to the SE, Missouri and Arkansas. So while we are below average in the Midwest and SE, Europe, Alaska, and the Far East is way above average. Point is, World as a whole is way above average compared to historical norms. Scary when some think they have more knowledge than 97% of climate scientists when they've put in virtually no study on the subject compared to what the scientific community has. It is arrogance in which can't be backed up by facts and the rigorous study and research put in by the scientific community in the past decade plus.
Floaters still not up yet...come on...
Quoting 552. CaribBoy:
Why people are interested in a future fish (93L)


Because there is no guarantee that it will be a "future fish".
Quoting 556. TheDawnAwakening:


This isn't a fish storm.
slow long tracker
Quoting 491. Stormchaser2007:
The 12z ECMWF develops 93L to some extent



Where can I find this image? Is it from a free website?
92 is greatest threat
THINGS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL SURGE TO GREATER THAN 2.00 INCHES BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES WILL PEAK TO 2.20 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE MORNING AND 2.40 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING AND 700 MB HEIGHT/TEMPS LOWER AND COOL. FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY

Houston-Galveston discussion. 2.4" is high. Yippee!
Quoting 528. hurricanes2018:
I think stop putting invests on this map!!
only putting tropical d and tropical storm and hurricanes on here.


We do indeed have 92L and 93L now... however, we don't have the model graphics at this point. WU usually puts them up once there are model tracks, floaters, etc. We will likely see the invests posted on these maps later this afternoon or this evening.
Quoting 564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
slow long tracker

what is that wave ahead of 93l!!
well its pretty cut and clear where both Invests are going..

Quoting 564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
slow long tracker


Those are the best ones to track. However, can also be very dangerous.
Quoting 548. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been 92 years since the last major hurricane directly hit Tampa Bay. Since then we have had some pretty close brushes including Frances and Jeanne that came through the backdoor.

Elena in 1985 was close
The people who are always downcast about storms going OTS are the ones who are least interested in tropical cyclones and more interested in being struck by one. I love tracking long lived Cape Verde hurricanes, and when they go OTS that's fine by me. I'm here to track hurricanes, not to track death and destruction.
Tomorrow at 1pm EDT (5pm GMT/12pm CDT) will be 44 years ago...

On Thursday, Aug. 14, a Navy reconnaissance plane reconnoitering a tropical wave in the Caribbean encountered a fast-developing depression which reached storm intensity while the aircraft was still in the area. Advisory Number One on the new storm, to be known as Camille, was issued at 1 pm EDT that day by the Weather Bureau's National Hurricane Center in Miami. At that time, Camille was located near latitude 19.3 north and longitude 2.3 west or about 60 miles west of Grand Cayman or 408 miles south of Miami. Camille was moving west-northwestward at about 13 miles per hour with strongest winds about 60 miles per hour over a very small area near the center...
Quoting 486. Levi32:
6-hour visible loop of 93L. This is not an updating loop, just a one-time post. If the system becomes more interesting then I'll make it live.



There's a bit of a spin out ahead of 93L in that first blob too.
Air pressures starting to drop at this isolated buoy in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles due SSE of Jamaica........They were rising at this location this am but those t-storms in that area have been very persistent over the last 4-5 hours:

Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (91)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 82.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F
View Details - View History

edit
Quoting 556. TheDawnAwakening:


This isn't a fish storm.


In 5 days, I will ask you the question "Is this a fish storm now?" ... I can't wait to read your answer.
Quoting 565. raggpr:


Where can I find this image? Is it from a free website?


It's free and from here.
Anyone using the SSS for Impact determination is not only wrong, but well..u know.

: )
Quoting 553. ncstorm:
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?



Link
Quoting 553. ncstorm:
I've been here almost 7 years and I dont know how to check for an invest?

Can someone provide the link?



Link

you will get a warning it is safe to proceed navy site all invests there
Quoting 569. Camille33:

what is that wave ahead of 93l!!


Just a wave that emerged a day before 93L emerged. I will get ripped apart by the high wind shear caused by the upper level anticyclonic flow over 93L. There is an area of low level vorticity associated with a wave embedded within a dry layer near 35-40w.
Quoting 577. weathermanwannabe:
Air pressures starting to drop at this isolated buoy in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles due SSE of Jamaica........They were rising at this location this am but those t-storms in that area have been very persistent over the last 4-5 hours:

Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (91)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 82.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F
View Details - View History



The one just to the East of Nicaragua also saw falling pressures as of 1850Z with East winds reported which does not tell us much
Quoting 573. CybrTeddy:
The people who are always downcast about storms going OTS are the ones who are least interested in tropical cyclones and more interested in being struck by one. I love tracking long lived Cape Verde hurricanes, and when they go OTS that's fine by me. I'm here to track hurricanes, not to track death and destruction.


thats not true..everyone has their preference in tracking TCs..To make an assumption about a group of people is pretty unfair..
Quoting 567. bappit:
THINGS WILL MODIFY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL SURGE TO GREATER THAN 2.00 INCHES BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES WILL PEAK TO 2.20 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE MORNING AND 2.40 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES BY AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING AND 700 MB HEIGHT/TEMPS LOWER AND COOL. FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY

Houston-Galveston discussion. 2.4" is high. Yippee!


Well this just made my day!
Orleans Parish

Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 1:05 PM CDT on August 13, 2013

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Timberlane... Metairie... Marrero...
Kenner... Harvey... Avondale...
Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of New Orleans...
St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Chalmette...

* until 300 PM CDT

* at 1258 PM CDT... National Weather Service radar indicated a
cluster of thunderstorms over upper Jefferson and Orleans
parishes. Radar estimated around 1.5 inches had fallen between
Lakefront and Chalmette and another maximum near 1 inch over
Harahan.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Additional rainfall amounts up to two inches are possible in the
advisory area.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause localized flooding
and ponding of water in urban areas... highways... streets and
underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 2985 9022 2992 9027 3005 9028 3003 9011
3004 9005 3006 9003 3005 9000 3006 8995
2986 8989 2986 8992 2989 8993 2990 8998
2989 9001 2986 9003

Well bummer, unless these storms fizzle before reaching the coastline it doesn't look like I'll make it to day 3 without rain.

NCAR Model Page

ATCF Invest Page

Make sure to bookmark these. :)
Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Link

you will get a warning it is safe to proceed navy site all invests there



thanks Keep!
We might, and I stress, might, get a new entry here from Dr. Masters on the developing situ.
A flash flood watch is now in effect for sections Jamaica:

NEWS RELEASE

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 – 12:00 noon

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, with immediate effect.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near Costa Rica, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across mainly southern parishes since early this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to affect these parishes and spread to other parishes today and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west. Flash flooding is, therefore, possible as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) today.


Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.


ram
Quoting 570. ncstorm:
well its pretty cut and clear where both Invests are going..



That's a joke right?
Quoting 579. CaribBoy:


In 5 days, I will ask you the question "Is this a fish storm now?" ... I can't wait to read your answer.


I don't get your point, because by then you will be looking at a potential hurricane tracking westward.
Quoting 593. nigel20:
A flash flood watch is now in effect for sections Jamaica:

NEWS RELEASE

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 %u2013 12:00 noon

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PARISHES ***

The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Thomas, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon and Manchester, with immediate effect.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

A Trough which extends just west of Jamaica from an area of Low Pressure near Costa Rica, has been influencing weather conditions across the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica,

Satellite imagery and radar reports indicate that moderate and occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across mainly southern parishes since early this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue to affect these parishes and spread to other parishes today and into Wednesday, as the area of unstable weather moves slowly toward the west. Flash flooding is, therefore, possible as rainfall amounts could reach 50-75 millimetres (2-3 inches) today.


Fishers and other marine interests are also urged to exercise caution as strong winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, over the waters, particularly south of the island..


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.


ram

OK Nigel! Are you ready for it????????????????????????????????????????????????
Quoting 585. louisianaboy444:


The one just to the East of Nicaragua also saw falling pressures as of 1850Z


Yup; pressures are falling (but not rapidly yet) at the moment at all three bouys in the Caribbean and off of the Yucatan.........Something is bound to give over the next 48 hours.
Quoting 594. Drakoen:


That's a joke right?


of course..LOL..I guess I should have added an emoticon..
Quoting 569. Camille33:

what is that wave ahead of 93l!!
activity being enhanced by proximity near ITCZ
Quoting 594. Drakoen:


That's a joke right?
I think so
Quoting 559. BaltOCane:
Gustav and Isaac were not majors when they hit LA.

but that's ok

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!
Quoting 595. TheDawnAwakening:


I don't get your point, because by then you will be looking at a potential hurricane tracking westward.


Lol a hurricane moving westward is pure fantasy :)
Does anyone think that the ULL near 60w 30n has a shot of forming, it is near 30C water? Looks like there potentially could be a trifecta with the storm in the Caribbean, the one coming off Africa and the one I just mentioned.
Quoting 586. ncstorm:


thats not true..everyone has their preference in tracking TCs..To make an assumption about a group of people is pretty unfair..


Sorry but half the blog gets totally bummed out every single year when a storm goes out to sea, and it really does take the fun out of tracking these storms when half the blog is disinterested.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

utor remind me of gustav a little!
Quoting 589. 69Viking:
Well bummer, unless these storms fizzle before reaching the coastline it doesn't look like I'll make it to day 3 without rain.


You didn't get the rain that came through this morning?
I'm in BR, too. Been a member since fall of 2004. Read a lot. Learn a little.



Quoting LAbonbon:


I can definitely see the line of storms dropping down on you. It's part of the same line just going over me now, but yours looks worse.

As a couple of backup sites, there's NWS (which you're likely well aware of), which I like to use, because it includes all the HWO's and SWS's in addition to watches and warnings on their maps. Link

Also, I love the site out of my city (Baton Rouge) Link This site covers the whole coast, you can zoom in to neighborhood level, and if you click the 'Layers' button on the right you can overlay any warnings, expected severe weather, etc. I keep it up all the time whenever tornados are a possibility.

Good luck and stay safe.
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

I remember when Gustav's remnants hit my area and we just got a lot of rain. But you should have been there when the remnants of Ike hit our area.
More showers is heading our way.



MetServiceJA ‏@MetserviceJA 3h
Thunderstorm cloud top at 50,531' moving toward St.Catherine/Clarendon @ 17KT. Expect more activity within the hour.
Quoting 573. CybrTeddy:
The people who are always downcast about storms going OTS are the ones who are least interested in tropical cyclones and more interested in being struck by one. I love tracking long lived Cape Verde hurricanes, and when they go OTS that's fine by me. I'm here to track hurricanes, not to track death and destruction.

I sincerely hope that nobody here wants to see death and destruction, but let's face it,sometimes there is death and destruction. Of great significance though, is the fact that Nature is awesome and this is what draws us to this blog. Isn't that so?
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

Wow! I forgot about that!
LETS HOPE WE DO NOT GET ANY BIG HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.I DO NOT LIKE WHAT I AM sEEING HERE!
Quoting 605. CybrTeddy:


Sorry but half the blog gets totally bummed out every single year when a storm goes out to sea, and it really does take the fun out of tracking these storms when half the blog is disinterested.


also when a bunch of people automatically say the system is out to sea when it first comes off the coast. To me that takes the fun out of it too
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!


yeah, go thru the archive again on this site.
he made landfall as a cat 2

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072008_Gustav.p df

and then there's this too, but good job though.
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!
You can thank dry air for that.
Quoting 597. weathermanwannabe:


Yup; pressures are falling (but not rapidly yet) at the moment at all three bouys in the Caribbean and off of the Yucatan.........Something is bound to give over the next 48 hours.

That's just the diurnal pressure change. It will be news when the pressure drops when the atmospheric tide would ordinarily make it rise. Here's a plot.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42 056&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT
Well, it would be a plot if WU did not eat long links.
Quoting 148. allancalderini:
Like I mention activity is about to start,someone bring the popcorn please.
I went to the movie last weekend and got in with my senior discount for $6.00... Kinda hungry and thirsty so I got a small buttered popcorn and a small Diet Coke....It cost me $247.53 ...What the .??
Quoting 612. islandgirls:

I sincerely hope that nobody here wants to see death and destruction, but let's face it,sometimes there is death and destruction. Of great significance though, is the fact that Nature is awesome and this is what draws us to this blog. Isn't that so?


What's less significant about a category 5 hurricane that recurves out into the open Atlantic vs. one that strikes the United States?
Cybrteddy has to know that every storms are not major hurricanes! I highly doubt a strong Cat 1 with 90MPH winds will do much damage to my area, but instead of that will bring lots of fun!!!
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.
this tropical low look better by the hour!
Quoting 623. Drakoen:
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.

And it is also important to note that the floaters are not up yet and it has been almost 2 hours, maybe more.
As for major hurricanes, of course, I don't wish one to pay a visit to anyone. I've experienced a few ones in the N Leewards, and it's no fun at all.
A lot of rain, but I only care about the temperatures. May not get out of the 70s...in coastal North Carolina...in August!

Quoting 626. CaribBoy:
As for major hurricanes, of course, I don't wish one to pay a visit to anyone. I've experienced a few ones in the N Leewards, and it's no fun at all.

What was it like?
Quoting 625. 62901IL:

And it is also important to note that the floaters are not up yet and it has been almost 2 hours, maybe more.
The wave in the atlantic is too far for a floater.
Quoting 623. Drakoen:
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.


Does not look like cyclone models this cycle for the Atlantic storms, no entries in the TCVITALS file.
Quoting 623. Drakoen:
No early BAMM models. I'm assuming we will get hurricane model runs, knowing them and 93L latitude it might recurve into Europe or back to Africa.


Lol, obviously.. :/
Quoting 625. 62901IL:

And it is also important to note that the floaters are not up yet and it has been almost 2 hours, maybe more.

Invest 92L's floater will be up shortly. Invest 93L will not get a floater from SSD for a while; not until 30-35W. It's too far out.
Quoting 628. 62901IL:

What was it like?


Like in a tornado lol BUT A VERY LONG TORNADO
Quoting 603. CaribBoy:


Lol a hurricane moving westward is pure fantasy :)


This time of year and the current forecasted wind shear values and SSTs ahead of this wave, all equal an opportunity for our first hurricane of the year. Nice cyclonic spin associated with invest 92L, whether it's at mid levels or low levels its too soon to tell just east of Northeastern Honduras.
Quoting 632. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 92L's floater will be up shortly. Invest 93L will not get a floater from SSD for a while; not until 30-35W.

OK Thanks!
Quoting 633. CaribBoy:


Like in a tornado lol BUT A VERY LONG TORNADO

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...wow...which ones have you been thru?
Quoting 614. hurricanes2018:
LETS HOPE WE DO NOT GET ANY BIG HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.I DO NOT LIKE WHAT I AM sEEING HERE!


What exactly are you seeing? I don't understand all of these maps.
Quoting 630. nrtiwlnvragn:


Does not look like cyclone models this cycle for the Atlantic storms, no entries in the TCVITALS file.


ATCF sometimes does this,has Invest up but delay the release of the BAMMS.
Quoting 631. CaribBoy:


Lol, obviously.. :/


Obviously this wave is not that far north, it's around 15n not 20-25n
Quoting 622. CaribBoy:
Cybrteddy has to know that every storms are not major hurricanes! I highly doubt a strong Cat 1 with 90MPH winds will do much damage to my area, but instead of that will bring lots of fun!!!

last time I checked a week without electricity is not fun. That's exactly what happened to many people down here whom were hit by Katrina as a cat one, Frances & Jeanne.. Don't know about you but doesn't sound like fun to me...
Quoting 634. TheDawnAwakening:


This time of year and the current forecasted wind shear values and SSTs ahead of this wave, all equal an opportunity for our first hurricane of the year. Nice cyclonic spin associated with invest 92L, whether it's at mid levels or low levels its too soon to tell just east of Northeastern Honduras.


Yes a hurricane may be possible, but I'm not so sure about a hurricane moving westward in the MDR towards the Caribbean...
When the NHC comes out with their initial track for 92L move it to the West about 100 miles....bullseye! 75-85 mph Cat 1 maybe.
Quoting 638. Tropicsweatherpr:


ATCF sometimes does this,has Invest up but delay the release of the BAMMS.


If I was cynical I would think NHC created the invests early to drive traffic to their little TWIT CHAT this afternoon.
Quoting 640. TheDawnAwakening:


Obviously this wave is not that far north, it's around 15n not 20-25n


But 15N is not 10N. Normally we should have seen wave/low at 10N in a normal august.
Quoting 629. Gearsts:
The wave in the atlantic is too far for a floater.
93 will be out of range till about 30 west lots of time with this sit back see what it does

Quoting 642. CaribBoy:


Yes a hurricane may be possible, but I'm not so sure about a hurricane moving westward in the MDR towards the Caribbean...


I'm thinking north of the Lesser Antilles.
Current development of Utor, wrapping aroung deeper convection to the northeast of its center, but some dry air is lurking around the northwestern side of the strenghtened eyewall now:


I say good night now. For late nighters in the US it may be interesting to follow the tweets of James Raynolds aka typhoonfury who is sleeping now, but before made sure that he will have to report something later on (residing in Zapho, part of Yangjiang, where Utor should make landfall):

James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 3h
In town of Zhapo, beachfront hotel. It's dark but sea is roaring. Wild day tomorrow! Time for a precious few hours sleep! #typhoon #Utor



Hong Kong Raises Storm Signal, May Delay Market Opening
By Hwee Ann Tan & Joshua Fellman - Aug 13, 2013 8:13 PM GMT 0200

Hong Kong issued its third-highest storm signal the first time this year as Severe Typhoon Utor sweeps past China's financial center, possibly delaying the opening of the city's stock market today.

The Hong Kong Observatory raised the No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal at 1:40 a.m. local time today, and expects it to remain in force for most of the morning, according to a statement on its website.

According to its published rules, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. will cancel premarket trading today should signal 8 still be in force between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. The morning trading session will begin at least 2 hours after the signal is dropped.

At 2 a.m., winds with sustained speeds of as high as 81 kilometers (50 miles) per hour were measured in the previous hour, the observatory said. Utor was centered about 310 kilometers south-southwest of Hong Kong and is forecast to move northwest at about 16 kilometers per hour across the northern part of the South China Sea toward the western coast of China's Guangdong province, the observatory said.

The storm will pass about 250 kilometers southwest of Hong Kong this morning, the weather bureau said. ...
Quoting 634. TheDawnAwakening:


This time of year and the current forecasted wind shear values and SSTs ahead of this wave, all equal an opportunity for our first hurricane of the year. Nice cyclonic spin associated with invest 92L, whether it's at mid levels or low levels its too soon to tell just east of Northeastern Honduras.


Definitely mid levels as surface observations don't support anything but a wave axis at the surface.
NASA GEOS-5 has 93L getting obliterated by SAL later this week.

You can see the dust getting wrapped into the circulation at the end of the run...

Quoting 645. nrtiwlnvragn:


If I was cynical I would think NHC created the invests early to drive traffic to their little TWIT CHAT this afternoon.


LOL nrt.
Quoting 650. Drakoen:


Definitely mid levels as surface observations don't support anything but a wave axis at the surface.


Agreed.
Quoting 636. 62901IL:

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...wow...which ones have you been thru?


Luis (95), George (98), Lenny (99) were the worst. I've also experienced decent hurricanes like Jose in 99, Bertha in 96, Omar in 2008, and Earl in 2010.
Quoting 645. nrtiwlnvragn:


If I was cynical I would think NHC created the invests early to drive traffic to their little TWIT CHAT this afternoon.

I think that NHC created the invests so they could keep the twit chat up longer.
Quoting 602. Ameister12:

I remember when Gustav was forecasted to become a Category 5 in the Gulf and hit LA as a strong category 4. Good thing that forecast didn't verify!

I remember watching in the wee hours of the AM wondering, why didn't we bail out ? I was so relieved to see it drop for 4 to 2...then to 1. Still caused lots of damage and had a small twister 2 blocks from me. And 5 days with no power....not a happy camper
Quoting 654. CaribBoy:


Luis (95), George (98), Lenny (99) were the worst. I've also experienced decent hurricanes like Jose in 99, Bertha in 96, Omar in 2008, and Earl in 2010.

Thanks!
Quoting 424. ecflweatherfan:
I don't know how much credibility to put into this, but an observation from DeLand, FL is reporting 100F and a dewpoint of 73F. That would make the heat index 111F. I will gladly dispute that 100F temperature, as nowhere close by is even close to that temperature. Sanford, some 25 miles away is 95, Daytona Beach is 20 miles away 92 degrees. Everyone else in central Florida ranges from 86-92 degrees.
Could be right----I spent a couple of years there one summer (sarcasm flag on) and have never been in worse August/Sept weather. Devil goes there in summer to warm up.
It's funny how perspectives are really different when you don't take interest in weather. Right now I'm watching old TWC coverage from the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons and thinking back to how I thought of all the storms then.

When I lived in Illinois back then, that was before I became interested in hurricanes. I would really only watch TV coverage of the hurricanes if one of my family would turn the TV on. I remember very well watching the coverage of hurricane Charley and being impressed that it made landfall as a category 4 and then Ivan because it hit near where our house in Florida was.

But then after that, I remember having the perception that Frances was a really weak hurricane and not being as bad. And then with hurricane Jeanne, for some reason I thought that it was a tropical storm at landfall.

I think that for a lot of people who aren't really interested in weather and hurricanes at all don't realize how bad a storm is, and if they don't happen to see it on TV or have someone tell them, or it is not going to affect them, they are completely oblivious to it.
Quoting 648. TheDawnAwakening:


I'm thinking north of the Lesser Antilles.


Yes... 99% chance it will miss the Lesser Antilles and NE Caribbean.
Quoting 605. CybrTeddy:


Sorry but half the blog gets totally bummed out every single year when a storm goes out to sea, and it really does take the fun out of tracking these storms when half the blog is disinterested.


LOL..you should be used to it by now..its part of WU..
Quoting 651. Stormchaser2007:
NASA GEOS-5 has 93L getting obliterated by SAL later this week.

You can see the dust getting wrapped into the circulation at the end of the run...

Another one..sigh..bites the dust.Seriously this needs to let up if you want any healthy cape verde storms this year.If not expect a lot of struggling storms in the east Atlantic.
Quoting 658. 62901IL:

Thanks!


You're welcome XD
Craig Setzer's (WFOR-Channel 4, Miami) Facebook Post from yesterday:

I am often asked what I think the hurricane season will be like in a given year. I typically answer, "It doesn't really matter because we live in South Florida and we are most prone to having a hurricane event, so we always have to be prepared." I'm also asked what I think about the hurricane season outlooks to which I reply, "Until the outlooks can predict locations of greater than normal hurricane risk, I think they are scientifically beneficial but not socioeconomically helpful." And so I don't make seasonal forecasts months in advance, and usually don"t weigh in on my opinions until about August.

It's August now, and I feel it's time to make a prediction. As many in South Florida say "one direct hit makes it a busy season no matter how many storms are in the Atlantic." And so my prediction is not based on intensity or numbers, just location. And based on what I've seen the past six weeks, I'm concerned that the state of Florida has a much higher than normal threat for tropical storms and hurricanes making landfall this year.

I don't claim to know all the nuances of atmospheric modeling and statistical indicators so you can take it for what it's worth, but the present pattern supports tropical activity headed toward Florida. Here's why. Last year we had an Atlantic ridge orientation that favored tropical cyclones that tended to recurve well out to sea. In other years we've had strong ridges that drive everything to the west into the Caribbean. Still other years we have a blocking ridge with infrequent breaks or opportunities from tropical cyclones to move north toward Florida. This year, the orientation of the ridge and blocks across the Atlantic, and the back edge of the ridge or weakness over the Gulf and eastern/central US, make it appear the door is wide open for tropical activity to head right in Florida's direction.

Of course, should this pattern change in the next month or so we could end up with storms being steered away. But from what I've seen so far, it looks like we could be very busy in Florida through at least September.

Every year we should be prepared for a hurricane in South Florida. But this year I think we should be especially prepared. I've bought water and will be topping off gas tanks and my supply kit in the next week or so. I upped my property insurance today. I'm starting to get ready, I suggest you do the same.
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:
Another one..sigh..bites the dust.Seriously this needs to let up if you want any healthy cape verde storms this year.If not expect a lot of struggling storms in the east Atlantic.


If such things were set in stone you'd think the NHC wouldn't bother mentioning this system.
Quoting 660. opal92nwf:
It's funny how perspectives are really different when you don't take interest in weather. Right now I'm watching old TWC coverage from the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons and thinking back to how I thought of all the storms then.

When I lived in Illinois back then, that was before I became interested in hurricanes. I would really only watch TV coverage of the hurricanes if one of my family would turn the TV on. I remember very well watching the coverage of hurricane Charley and being impressed that it made landfall as a category 4 and then Ivan because it hit near where our house in Florida was.

But then after that, I remember having the perception that Frances was a really weak hurricane and not being as bad. And then with hurricane Jeanne, for some reason I thought that it was a tropical storm at landfall.

I think that for a lot of people who aren't really interested in weather and hurricanes at all don't realize how bad a storm is, and if they don't happen to see it on TV or have someone tell them, or it is not going to affect them, they are completely oblivious to it.


Frances was a pain because she impacted us for 3 days due to the slow movement. Today is the 9 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley impacting Florida. I went through Charley, Frances and Jeanne and in particular the day and night Charley came through is an experience I will never forget
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:
Another one..sigh..bites the dust.Seriously this needs to let up if you want any healthy cape verde storms this year.If not expect a lot of struggling storms in the east Atlantic.
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:
Another one..sigh..bites the dust.Seriously this needs to let up if you want any healthy cape verde storms this year.If not expect a lot of struggling storms in the east Atlantic.



Chill out why not take a few weeks a way from the blogs and come back and see what we have
Quoting 666. CybrTeddy:


If such things were set in stone you'd think the NHC wouldn't bother mentioning this system.
Instability has been a problem in the east/central Atlantic for the past 3 seasons (2011,2012,2013).The best chance for this is in the short term..even NHC mentions dry air eventually being a problem for this in the long run.
Lots of bark but no bite with 92L this afternoon
Quoting 609. ringeaux:
I'm in BR, too. Been a member since fall of 2004. Read a lot. Learn a little.





Hi, ringeaux! I'm a new member, but lurked in years past whenever a storm was headed our way. I think I read a lot, learn a little as well :)

Hey, by any chance did you notice the yellow alert bar 'activate' after the line of storms went by? This is the second time I've noticed the alert actually lag the weather.
Huffman's site has serious issues..sometimes it updates and sometimes it doesnt..how much is weatherbell for the model subscription every month?
Quoting 629. Gearsts:
The wave in the atlantic is too far for a floater.


I think not.

Quoting 670. washingtonian115:
Instability has been a problem in the east/central Atlantic for the past 3 seasons (2011,2012,2013).The best chance for this is in the short term..even NHC mentions dry air eventually being a problem for this in the long run.


2013 is not nearly as bad with instability as 2012 was.
Sorry if this was posted already. I may never catch up. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013


ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE SE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION
ENTERING THE S CENTRAL GULF BY THU MORNING. DISAGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE WAVE
TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE N DIGS SOUTHWARD.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST 30 KT OF WIND IN THE NE GULF ON THE SE
SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES. THE REMAINDER OF GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE CMC...TAKES THE WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN SW GULF/BAY OF
CAMPECHE...PUSHING INLAND OVER MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
Quoting 668. Patrap:
That's amazing..........I spent 2 years with my ex at Eielson AFB , 26 miles from Fairbanks.....Very unusual
There is a reason the 12Z UKMET likes the storm so much. The UKMET takes it further south into the BOC where anticyclonic flow will be more dominant and wind shear may be less problematic



Didn't notice the alert bar. Had a pretty good shower, .68, bringing me to 6.18 for the month. Keeping an eye on that potential storm.


Quoting LAbonbon:


Hi, ringeaux! I'm a new member, but lurked in years past whenever a storm was headed our way. I think I read a lot, learn a little as well :)

Hey, by any chance did you notice the yellow alert bar 'activate' after the line of storms went by? This is the second time I've noticed the alert actually lag the weather.
Pressures forecasted by last night's GFS for 18z today ended up being 1-2mb too high in the Caymans and Jamaica area.

Quoting 641. 954FtLCane:

last time I checked a week without electricity is not fun. That's exactly what happened to many people down here whom were hit by Katrina as a cat one, Frances & Jeanne.. Don't know about you but doesn't sound like fun to me...


Evidently he's never been through a 90 mph storm. 90 mph will damage a lot of poorly built structures and topple a lot of trees down on top of homes and automobiles. It can knock power out for weeks.
Quoting 675. CybrTeddy:


2013 is not nearly as bad with instability as 2012 was.


I read this on an article forecasting the rest of the season's conditions:

"As we get later into the hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical development.
The massive plume of Saharan dust pushing off the coast of Africa will begin to dissipate, allowing for the moist environment necessary for systems to strengthen. This is also the time of year that shredding winds will back off, letting tropical systems have the time to develop."
92L/INV/XX/XX
I think the wave in the eastern Atlantic has a great chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. As others have already pointed out, Invest 93L has a nice anticyclone atop of it, providing both low wind shear and the opportunity for outflow channels to develop. It is emerging south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to allow for tropical development. After a few large outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer the past two weeks, things have calmed down across the Atlantic; regardless, a majority of the SAL lies well north of the wave. Finally, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave...Dr. Masters mentioned we would see a few of these back in his post a couple of days ago...is moving eastward across the Main Development Region. This will help increase divergence and convective activity associated with the wave.

Unfortunately, the system will encounter a more stable environment in the central Atlantic over the weekend. I doubt it becomes anything of huge significance intensity wise. Reminds me of Dorian...maybe stronger.

Chance of overall cyclone formation - 60%, if you ask me.

I doubt the East Atlantic will remain as quiet as the GFS is making it out to be.

Quoting 556. TheDawnAwakening:


This isn't a fish storm.
. I agree with TDA no fish , long tracker west , and probably a cane!
Quoting 663. washingtonian115:
Another one..sigh..bites the dust.Seriously this needs to let up if you want any healthy cape verde storms this year.If not expect a lot of struggling storms in the east Atlantic.

"Sigh", I sort of vowed that I wouldn't comment (more about the tropics) until Erin formed, but I can't help it now.

Why are we suddenly bemoaning that this wave is going to fizzled by just an isolated report(s) that there might be SAL impacting it. We can't be so certain about this right now. Please
Quoting 647. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
93 will be out of range till about 30 west lots of time with this sit back see what it does



Keep what about the image the Navy site has? Is that not a floater?

Link
Quoting 651. Stormchaser2007:
NASA GEOS-5 has 93L getting obliterated by SAL later this week.

You can see the dust getting wrapped into the circulation at the end of the run...



:(
Quoting 682. mitchelace5:


I read this on an article forecasting the rest of the season's conditions:

"As we get later into the hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical development.
The massive plume of Saharan dust pushing off the coast of Africa will begin to dissipate, allowing for the moist environment necessary for systems to strengthen. This is also the time of year that shredding winds will back off, letting tropical systems have the time to develop."
Accuweather?.and I was suppose to get 10 inches here in D.C according to them from that snow storm.Dry air will be a problem for this system unless it can create a moisture bubble to protect it's self.
In the discussions around SAL this week - I can't help but wonder if SAL keeping E. ATL. disturbances weak is part of the reason why forecasts for the season were so concerned with US landfalls. If the disturbances are kept weak until they're most or all of the way across the tropical Atlantic, then they seem more likely to be trouble for us in the long run.
It seems to me, looking at World water temperatures that the water off Africa is no hot enough for a big hurricane season. The West Pacific is where it is all happening this year.
PHI and other Helo Transportation for the GOM have upgraded their Alert status and advised all Client interest.


Quoting 686. opal92nwf:

"Sigh", I sort of vowed that I wouldn't comment (more about the tropics) until Erin formed, but I can't help it now.

Why are we suddenly bemoaning that this wave is going to fizzled by just an isolated report(s) that there might be SAL impacting it. We can't be so certain about this right now. Please
as my beautiful grand-daughter always says......."Just Because"
Quoting 684. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the wave in the eastern Atlantic has a great chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. As others have already pointed out, Invest 93L has a nice anticyclone atop of it, providing both low wind shear and the opportunity for outflow channels to develop. It is emerging south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to allow for tropical development. After a few large outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer the past two weeks, things have calmed down across the Atlantic; regardless, a majority of the SAL lies well north of the wave. Finally, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave...Dr. Masters mentioned we would see a few of these back in his post a couple of days ago...is moving eastward across the Main Development Region. This will help increase divergence and convective activity associated with the wave.

I doubt the East Atlantic will remain as quiet as the GFS is making it out to be.




That wave in front of 93L all so needs too be watch that wave could be come 94L
FIM-8



Waits for development near the islands and not a recurve into the Central Atlantic.

I'd give 93L a 50% of developing in general, although its chances for survival beyond the 3-4 day range are rather poor. It will either be a short-lived tropical cyclone, or a Dorian repeat, if it does gain latitude the way that the GFS and ECMWF are depicting.

Quoting 684. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the wave in the eastern Atlantic has a great chance of becoming a tropical cyclone this week. As others have already pointed out, Invest 93L has a nice anticyclone atop of it, providing both low wind shear and the opportunity for outflow channels to develop. It is emerging south of the Cape Verde Islands where sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient to allow for tropical development. After a few large outbreaks of Saharan Air Layer the past two weeks, things have calmed down across the Atlantic; regardless, a majority of the SAL lies well north of the wave. Finally, a convectively-coupled kelvin wave...Dr. Masters mentioned we would see a few of these back in his post a couple of days ago...is moving eastward across the Main Development Region. This will help increase divergence and convective activity associated with the wave.

Unfortunately, the system will encounter a more stable environment in the central Atlantic over the weekend. I doubt it becomes anything of huge significance intensity wise. Reminds me of Dorian...maybe stronger.

I doubt the East Atlantic will remain as quiet as the GFS is making it out to be.



So the wave in front 93L has not cleaned the dry air?
Quoting 696. GTstormChaserCaleb:
FIM-8



Waits for development near the islands and not a recurve into the Central Atlantic.



I prefer that.
The 12z ECMWF ensembles are split between north and west trajectories for 92L.

It's Hotter in Fairbanks,AK. currently than NOLA.

LOL
Quoting 697. MiamiHurricanes09:
I'd give 93L a 50% of developing in general, although its chances for survival beyond the 3-4 day range are rather poor. It will either be a short-lived tropical cyclone, or a Dorian repeat, if it does gain latitude the way that the GFS and ECMWF are depicting.



WHY on Earth weak systems like 93L CANNOT move west into better environment!!
Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.

I'll take it!


Quoting Patrap:
It's Hotter in Fairbanks,AK. currently than NOLA.

LOL
705. ringeaux

U betcha'
Quoting 700. CaribBoy:


I prefer that.
Course you do, lol. Dorian might be a good analog for 93L. When one follows a specific track the next one usually follows a similar track. Also models have tended to underestimate the A-B High this year.
Quoting 698. Tropicsweatherpr:


So the wave in fron 93L has not cleaned the dry air?

I should clarify. The wave/cyclone shouldn't weaken by just solely entering the central Atlantic. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that it will gain latitude while doing so, giving it more interaction with dry air and SAL.
Good god of mighty you name one negative thing that this wave has to go through and people start going mad.lol.Dry air is a reality for this wave like it was Dorian and Chantal.Which is why the models don't see this becoming more than a weak tropical cyclone not saying it will not become anything more if it can over come the dry air.Sorry I even commented on it..>>
93L
Quoting 701. Levi32:
The 12z ECMWF ensembles are split between north and west trajectories for 92L.


We don't want another Debbie situation :/
Quoting 676. AtHomeInTX:
Sorry if this was posted already. I may never catch up. :)

CAMPECHE...PUSHING INLAND OVER MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


The 'piece breaking off' part explains what the FIM at least has been doing.
Actually, Fairbanks is 63F.

;P
Decent convection for a wave approaching DMIN.

Quoting 710. washingtonian115:
Good god of mighty you name one negative thing that this wave has to go through and people start going mad.lol.Dry air is a reality for this wave like it was Dorian and Chantal.Which is why the models don't see this becoming more than a weak tropical cyclone not saying it will not become anything more if it can over come the dry air.Sorry I even commented on it..>>

It wasn't that you were mentioning SAL being a problem, it was that you were making it sound like it was beyond the shadow of a doubt that the wave was going to fizzle because of it.
Quoting 713. redwagon:


The 'piece breaking off' part explains what the FIM at least has been doing.


Yeah, it must be.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the southeast quarter.

At 4:00 AM HKT, Severe Typhoon Utor was centered about 300 kilometers south-southwest of Hong Kong is forecast to move northwest at about 16 km/h towards the western coast of Guangdong.

As Utor moved closer to Hong Kong, winds over the territory continued to strengthen. Gales prevailed over offshore waters while winds occasionally reached storm force on high ground. According to the present forecast track, Utor will skirt over 250 kilometers to the southwest of Hong Kong this morning. Local winds are expected to strengthen further in the morning. The Gale or Storm Signal No. 8 will remain in force for most of the morning.
NWS Slidell,La.

Now we have been keeping an eye on this wave in the central Caribbean
and latest GFS continues to hold onto a surface reflection...albeit
weak...drifting to the north and then re-curving to the north and NE
while in the eastern Gulf. With a stalled boundary and being just
downstream of the trough axis it merges with a weak wave along the
stalled front and tries to spin up a surface low...this is not
completely tropical in nature but it is something. Good news is it
looks like if that happens it will be east of our area. As for the
European model (ecmwf) it continues to not like the system and shows an open wave
moving into the Yucatan. Given how weak the system is and how far
south it currently is the European model (ecmwf) makes more sense. Now with that all
said good thing for US is both of the models still showed mostly the
same sensible weather for our area and thus have stuck to the mex
gui. One small issue is the GFS is drier and slightly cooler for our
area and this could be an indirect impact of it trying to spin up a
low in the Gulf. We will continue to watch and see. /Cab/
Quoting 704. Levi32:
Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.


"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"
Experimental Basin Scale HWRF from last night (sure is not timely), One West, another Northwest


Quoting 710. washingtonian115:
Good god of mighty you name one negative thing that this wave has to go through and people start going mad.lol.Dry air is a reality for this wave like it was Dorian and Chantal.Which is why the models don't see this becoming more than a weak tropical cyclone not saying it will not become anything more if it can over come the dry air.Sorry I even commented on it..>>
All good with me Washi. You have proof to back it up too. You already know which model I am going with on this one. *Hint I post it like every second on here. :P

Quoting 715. 69Viking:
Decent convection for a wave approaching DMIN.

Divergent flow aloft will keep the thunderstorm activity pulsating.

Quoting 721. nrtiwlnvragn:
Experimental Basin Scale HWRF from last night (sure is not timely), One West, another Northwest





not good very strong ridge.
Quoting 722. GTstormChaserCaleb:
All good with me Washi. You have proof to back it up too. You already know which model I am going with on this one. *Hint I post it like every second on here. :P


Well if the SAL and Water Vapor stayed the way it shows on that picture, then it would not be a problem one bit.
Quoting 716. opal92nwf:

It wasn't that you were mentioning SAL being a problem, it was that you were making it sound like it was beyond the shadow of a doubt that the wave was going to fizzle because of it.
??.I never said this wave wouldn't develop.Look at my comment that I made to Ted saying that it's best chances are in the short term for development but in long term dry air could be a problem...
Quoting 704. Levi32:
Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.



notice the feature near the Islands aswell.
Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.
Quoting 724. Patrap:
Discombobulated.
Quoting 714. Patrap:
Actually, Fairbanks is 63F.

;P


I was gonna say....
Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"


That's funny coming from someone with Opal in their screen name!
Quoting 729. Levi32:


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.



I agree 100% I dont see much development till the BOC.


Quoting 730. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Discombobulated.
I always loved that word.Not sure what it meant...But I will take 2
Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"


Hurricane Karl in 2010 disagrees with you.
Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"

More boring if it heads north..shear would more of a factor there. So the west track shouldn't to boring.
Quoting 729. Levi32:


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.
Exactly...and that's under the assumption that it even develops. It's going to be an extremely gradual process watching 92L consolidate from its current broad state.
Quoting 729. Levi32:


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.


A trough picked up Opal and didn't shear it so what makes this situation different?
The wind shear has really come down in the Western Caribbean.

Quoting 724. Patrap:


Pretty soon radar will be helpful in analyzing 92L. I get the impression we're gonna wake up to a whopper of a DMAX impact.
741. josF
Quoting 730. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Discombobulated.

<3 that quote. :)
Quoting 720. opal92nwf:

"Sigh."potentially another boring, weak BOC storm. "rolls eyes"


If your looking for exciting storms in the Gulf then find a new hobby lol
Quoting 729. Levi32:


Believe me, it will be just as boring if it heads north. The trough would shear it, import dry air from the west, and what-not. The whole situation is strung-out, so either way 92L is unlikely to become strong. The SE US doesn't want more rain, anyway.
our first hurricane, most likely it would be something from africa rather than this caribbean disturbance?


Zero evidence of any Low level center, I still think the easterly flow can slow just bit to allow more cyclonic turning.
Quoting 704. Levi32:
Hey, look at the 12z CMC ensembles. Farther west than yesterday.



GEOS-5 goes more west & then turns northward with 92L..keeping it much farther west, weak. Much slower than the CMC.


I'm leaning a little more east AL/GA/Panhandle & with the straight up 12ZCMC run. There has just been a river of moisture there & across the southeast US. They just got hit the other day.. There is this other little landblob coming in less than two days through there. To usher it across the SE.. Hate to even try & call it before we got a good blob even, but if I had to.


Quoting 727. washingtonian115:
??.I never said this wave wouldn't develop.Look at my comment that I made to Ted saying that it' best chances are in the short term for development but in long term Fry air could be a problem...

I read that comment before and I knew what you were implying that for the long term. Even if it did do something in the short term (however insignificant) the implied point I got is that it would not be a threat beyond that, and that we don't know! Let's just watch and wait.
Are there any plans to ever separate the chat from flash making it mobile friendly?
Quoting 735. CybrTeddy:


Hurricane Karl in 2010 disagrees with you.


And tiny Marco.
Quoting 739. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The wind shear has really come down in the Western Caribbean.



Its still at about 15 to 20kts thats much to fast for a large disorganized area of Thunderstorms to form in, That really what were talking about here.
Quoting 739. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The wind shear has really come down in the Western Caribbean.


and will continue to decrease as we move on to the night
Something like this maybe?
Quoting 749. chrisdscane:


Its still at about 15 to 20kts thats much to fast for a large disorganized area of Thunderstorms to form in, That really what were talking about here.
It was howling at 40-50 knots yesterday. I agree 20 knots is still high, but once it gets below that, then game on.
I get these sneezing fits for some unknown reason every evening...Go figure...I always sneeze exactly 7 times....I want one more.
Quoting 749. chrisdscane:


Its still at about 15 to 20kts thats much to fast for a large disorganized area of Thunderstorms to form in, That really what were talking about here.

actually 15-20kt is not fast at all
Quoting 722. GTstormChaserCaleb:
All good with me Washi. You have proof to back it up too. You already know which model I am going with on this one. *Hint I post it like every second on here. :P



experimental!
Fresh OSCAT
Quoting 750. wunderkidcayman:

and will continue to decrease as we move on to the night


Hey wunderkidcayman, what do you think about our disturbance near Africa?


Ton of moisture with 93L
NAM 18Z at 84 hours. It has been consistant for many days about the system going into the BOC.
Quoting 754. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It was howling at 40-50 knots yesterday. I agree 20 knots is still high, but once it gets below that, then game on.

it will drop further down tonight
Quoting 756. wunderkidcayman:

actually 15-20kt is not fast at all


for a hurricane no, but this is a poorly organized area of disturbed weather atm, granted it has droped since yesterday I guess we gota wait and see.
Quoting 437. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This afternoons model runs and especially tonight's ones will be very interesting.


Has that FIM model you like done any flipflopping on our wannabeastorm?
Quoting 749. chrisdscane:


Its still at about 15 to 20kts thats much to fast for a large disorganized area of Thunderstorms to form in, That really what were talking about here.

No it's not. It's somewhat conductive for slow development. Anything more than 25 its not. Btw that 15-20 is decreasing anyway.
blah blah blah, the model is horrible for tropical storms but at least the Nam has the UK and Euro with it :)

Quoting 738. 69Viking:


A trough picked up Opal and didn't shear it so what makes this situation different?


Well there are many reasons why Opal was better off.

One is that the trough coming to get Opal was broader and farther north, allowing a more focused area of lowering pressures, with the jet to the northeast of Opal providing a great outflow channel instead of shearing the storm. Contrast that with 92L's setup, with a sharp trough causing pressure falls along an elongated region, and shearing more than providing outflow.

Opal:



92L:




Also notice how in IR satellite imagery Opal was a consolidated mass of heat in the southern gulf before being drawn north, while our system is probably going to be strung out to the northeast and not very consolidated for most of its life.

Opal:



92L:





Well looks like the TAFB is leaning more towards the Northeast Gulf.



Quoting 759. mitchelace5:


Hey wunderkidcayman, what do you think about our disturbance near Africa?


It may develop and it will move W for not too early to say where it will end up

Quoting 760. chrisdscane:


Ton of moisture with 93L


thats old that stopped updating from yesterday morning
Quoting 770. DavidHOUTX:
blah blah blah, the model is horrible for tropical storms but at least the Nam has the UK and Euro with it :)



I've actually been watching with interest as the WRF does not feedback the northern portion of the wave. That's not usually what it does.
Well I'm surely looking forward to the Cold Front passing Se.La. with the cooler air and lower dewpoint's.

That never happens in August.




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
810 am CDT Tuesday Aug 13 2013


Update...
..sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this morning. The sounding shows a
good amount of deep moisture in the atmosphere with precipitable water values
near 2.2 inches. Low level flow continues to be mainly out of the
west. Shower and thunderstorms are expected later on today and any
that develop could produce heavy rainfall. Hail is not likely to
be much of an issue...even though there is a large amount of
energy for which storms to work with. The inhibiting factors are
wet bulb zero and freezing level heights near 15k feet. Winds
shift around to the north and northeast aloft.


98/so


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 352 am CDT Tuesday Aug 13 2013/


Synopsis...ridge over the north-central Gulf weakening and ridge is now
building over the desert SW/4 corners. Weak northwest flow starting to set
up over the lower MS valley. Large polar low is over Ontario with
the l/west trough slowly digging and the trough axis running through
Lake Michigan and just east of the middle MS valley. At the
surface...stalled front still remains well off to the north draped from
northern OK...along the MO/Arkansas border and into the Ohio Valley. Radar wise
a few storms have begun to develop over the coastal waters


Short term...sounding like a broken record here but it was once
again a mostly quiet night. We are starting to get a little
development over the marine zones a tad faster than previous nights and
some of this activity has lightning with it. Expect coverage to
slowly increase across the coasts through the morning.


Today scattered to num convection is expected once again. Ridge has already
broken down across the Gulf and l/west trough is slowly digging over
the eastern Continental U.S.. this is causing the hghts to lower ever so slowly
over the lower MS valley and with abundant moisture to work
convection will get going once we start heating up. Convection will
likely be more diurnally driven initially and then driven by
boundary/outflow interactions. The reason for this is there doesnt
appear to be any noticeable disturbance embedded in the northwest flow
coming down into our area until the overnight hours and tomorrow. A
few strong to severe storms cant be ruled out and if they develop it
will likely be over the northern half of the County Warning Area.


Tonight and tomorrow...convection will initially die down during the
evening hours once we lose the daytime heating but after midnight
convection may start to re-fire if not move in from the northwest. A strong
impulse associated with convection in the southern/Central Plains will work
southeast into the lower MS valley today and into our area tonight and
there should be sufficient convection associated with it. This
impulse will slowly move across the County Warning Area during the day Wednesday and it
will help to dig the eastern Continental U.S. L/west trough all the way into the Gulf.
This will also drive that stalled boundary to our north to the south
and into the County Warning Area Wednesday. The combination of middle/upper level support...ll
forcing...and precipitable waters ata 2.25" suggest num to even widespread rain showers and
thunderstorms and rain...some which could be heavy. Heavy rain is a concern as this
front has been associated with heavy rain in multiple areas. K index
values will be in the upper 30s...precipitable waters will be 130% of normal and
could be just under 2.5". The 850 mb Theta-E ridge will be draped
across the County Warning Area all day. In addition the models are showing that we
could have some divergence aloft to work with as well. Will keep the
mention of heavy rain in the grids/zones and slightly beef up the
wording in the severe weather potential statement west/respect to flooding on Wednesday.


Wednesday night through Friday...the cold front will have a pretty good push and
could get all the way into the Gulf by Thursday morning. Yes that is
correct a cold front into the Gulf on Aug 15th and this will do a
few things. First off it could allow the County Warning Area to begin to dry out
over the northern portions of the County Warning Area a little faster than expected with
only isolated to scattered convection on Friday...best chance for rain will be
the southeastern half/3rd of the County Warning Area on Friday. It could also provide very
pleasant conditions for Aug. The models are indicating dewpoints
dropping significantly across the northwestern half of the County Warning Area Thursday and Friday
with the latest mex gui suggesting lows in the lower 60s across southwestern
MS.
Link

Pressure droping near 92l.
Quoting 765. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Has that FIM model you like done any flipflopping on our wannabeastorm?


AthomeinTexas posted a very important disco 100 or so posts back where a piece of 92L is going to break off and head N/NE. The rest of the wave continutes W. I don't think any models handle detachment well, or multiple vortices, either.
Quoting 764. chrisdscane:


for a hurricane no, but this is a poorly organized area of disturbed weather atm, granted it has droped since yesterday I guess we gota wait and see.

for weak system too but once it hits 30-40kts then weak system will have problems but not with 15-20kts
Poll
92L what % do you think it will be at the next TWO.
A 30/50
B 40/50
C 30/30
D same

93L,what % do you think it will be at the next TWO.
A 30/60
B 40/60
C 50/50
D 60/70

I think A and B.
Sea Level pressure at 48 hrs.

Quoting 771. Levi32:


Well there are many reasons why Opal was better off.

One is that the trough coming to get Opal was broader and farther north, allowing a more focused area of lowering pressures, with the jet to the northeast of Opal providing a great outflow channel instead of shearing the storm. Contrast that with 92L's setup, with a sharp trough causing pressure falls along an elongated region, and shearing more than providing outflow.


Opal:



92L:




Also notice how in IR satellite imagery Opal was a consolidate mass of heat in the southern gulf before being drawn north, while our system is probably going to be strung out to the northeast and not very consolidated for most of its life.

Opal:



92L:






I was wondering the very same thing. Good comparison analysis. Hurricane Eloise in 1975 had a trough pick up too as well.

Eloise remained a fairly disorganized tropical storm until September 20, when it approached the Yucatan Peninsula and began to re-intensify. The storm crossed over the northern tip of the peninsula as it began to turn northward in response to an approaching trough. Between September 17 and September 21, however, reports on the storm were scarce, leading to uncertainty in its exact location and strength. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Eloise quickly organized. The trough enhanced the wind divergence over the storm's center, allowing it to strengthen once again to reach hurricane force about 345 miles (555 km) south of New Orleans, Louisiana.
If I may.... I have been in south Florida for 30+ years...When I came here there was not even an internet....We survived without all of the panic, and all of the hype....I makes jokes and kid around until things get really serious...Kinda like Grother does.Trust me, I have seen it all more than you know....Don't get too excited and crazy in the early stages....It's not worth it ...It is what it is....There may be only a handful of the "Experts" here that I listen to. I do enjoy listening to the others... For now...I love you all ,kind of
Quoting 778. chrisdscane:
Link

Pressure droping near 92l.


yep here too pressures earlier was 1015mbs now its 1012mbs and dropping fast

and currently E said of the Islands getting 30mph
Quoting 778. chrisdscane:
Link

Pressure droping near 92l.
As soon as you point that out look what happens.

Convergence increases in that area.

I disagree. When it reaches the Gulf, it will have to move North.


Quoting 789. GTstormChaserCaleb:
As soon as you point that out look what happens.

Convergence increases in that area.



Im magic, someones get get alot of rain and gusty winds thats the only thing thats set in stone at this time.
Quoting 781. HurricaneAndre:
Poll
92L what % do you think it will be at the next TWO.
A 30/50
B 40/50
C 30/30
D same

93L,what % do you think it will be at the next TWO.
A 30/60
B 40/60
C 50/50
D 60/70

I think A and B.


A or B

E 20/30%
Quoting 790. Grothar:
I disagree. When it reaches the Gulf, it will have to move North.


Hi Grothar, your Blobzilla evolved into 93L:

from GA wx office

.THE CANADIAN IS STRONGER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD POSSIBLY
INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER THERE.
Quoting 778. chrisdscane:
Link

Pressure droping near 92l.


So far there have been no significant pressure falls at that buoy relative to the diurnal cycles from the last few days.

Quoting 795. GeorgiaStormz:
from GA wx office

.THE CANADIAN IS STRONGER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD POSSIBLY
INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...BUT IT IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER THERE.
That's not fair, why does the GFS always get all the credit? :(
Quoting 796. Levi32:


So far there have been no significant pressure falls at that buoy relative to the diurnal cycles from the last few days.




true, but it hasnt peaked as high the past few days somethings gota give.
Quoting 787. wunderkidcayman:


yep here too pressures earlier was 1015mbs now its 1012mbs and dropping fast

and currently E said of the Islands getting 30mph


Your pressures were 1012mb during the last diurnal cycle as well. You should know about trans-diurnal pressure trends since you live there.

You know, I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm like this this year. With all the semi-unfavorable conditions in the Caribbean and Atlantic, this would make sense with it starting out weak and then strengthening in the Gulf.

With August being like it is now (yes we have some invests, but the futures is not to bright for them), maybe this September will be when the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season pulls it's big guns out!

I'm out, see you later!
Take a look at where the strongest winds are located in the trough that is hanging over the Great Lakes region

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Note where the areas of Upper-level divergence and convergence are located

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Rule of thumb:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 785. PalmBeachWeather:
If I may.... I have been in south Florida for 30+ years...When I came here there was not even an internet....We survived without all of the panic, and all of the hype....I makes jokes and kid around until things get really serious...Kinda like Grother does.Trust me, I have seen it all more than you know....Don't get too excited and crazy in the early stages....It's not worth it ...It is what it is....There may be only a handful of the "Experts" here that I listen to. I do enjoy listening to the others... For now...I love you all ,kind of


True Dat. I lot of us joke around but when it comes to a serious situation we get serious. When people's property and lives are in danger it is time no time to joke around.
And by the way, the 12z GFS was too low with the pressures in the Caymans again. It was supposed to be 1011mb there at 21z (now):



The NAM, on the other hand, got the pressure right:

Quoting 794. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hi Grothar, your Blobzilla evolved into 93L:



I figured that. That's why I named it Blobzilla a few days ago.

I leave you people alone for two hours and I come back to 2 invests. And not a decent model between you.
Quoting 805. Grothar:


True Dat. I lot of us joke around but when it comes to a serious situation we get serious. When people's property and lives are in danger it is time no time to joke around.
Gro...I guess I am invited to all of the local get-togethers for my humor...But as you say, There is a time to get serious. I'm sure you living in Broward have been through many experiences like myself more than the layman... I had my share in 1974 also living in Ohio.
Quoting 804. sunlinepr:


Looks like quite the cyclone headed into the Northwest.
Quoting 810. TimSoCal:


Looks like quite the cyclone headed into the Northwest.


Huge swirl... and another one behind....
We dont need a tropical system making landfall in Mobile. We have had at least 3 to 4 inches in the last 2 hours in West Mobile. We have gotten so much rain over the last 2 months, that when you walk on the grass it feels like a sinking sponge under your feet. It wont take a strong TC to flood us and knock over trees.
Quoting 786. stormpetrol:


Interesting that the map has a low from the wave ahead of 93L

Quoting 770. DavidHOUTX:
blah blah blah, the model is horrible for tropical storms but at least the Nam has the UK and Euro with it :)



The NAM only predicts out to 84 hours. You would think it could get it right?
Quoting 813. kmanislander:


Interesting that the map has a low from the wave ahead of 93L



I noticed that and headed due west.
Pressure falling in the Caribbean

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.002N 81.501W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (86°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F
Well, I tested out of Statistics on the credit exam. I never took a college statistics class, but I crammed for two days from Cliffs Notes. Half of this stuff I already knew just from other math classes anyway, but about the second half of it is pretty hard to remember every formula and the table you're supposed to use.

It was the hardest math test I've actually passed, just because of the tedious nature of statistics, and trying to remember every formula ever invented. Of course, it is a credit exam with no actual instruction, and only 2 days actually teaching myself what I didn't already know. They didn't give a formula sheet at the test; just scratch paper and a basic calculator.

I actually found mistakes on the test itself. When the computer gave me the option to give feedback, I discussed that issue and the insane time restrictions of just 76 seconds per question.


Stronger and more north 850mb Vort keeping off the coast too.
Look at the low with 93L at 18z analysis how it goes WSW.

obs on E side of Grand Cayman is reading 44mph pressures still droping
Quoting 809. sunlinepr:

The next monster "wave" forming over east Africa, about 6 days away.
Quoting 808. PalmBeachWeather:
Gro...I guess I am invited to all of the local get-togethers for my humor...But as you say, There is a time to get serious. I'm sure you living in Broward have been through many experiences like myself more than the layman... I had my share in 1974 also living in Ohio.


Throw a few wars and an F5 tornado in with those hurricanes and you get close.
Quoting 822. wunderkidcayman:
obs on E side of Grand Cayman is reading 44mph pressures still droping




TS force gust, could be a nasty 24 -36 hours.
Ok, Time to go.........I hope you all have a wonderful evening....Now I just heard that CVS is going to card me when I buy "Nail Polish Remover"...Right!! Good night
Quoting 820. stormpetrol:


Stronger and more north 850mb Vort keeping off the coast too.

the small vort just E of that has increase a good amount as well
Its never a good idea to underestimate an Invest.... especially in the middle of August.


Just how far south along the Gulf coast this trough gets will be the key to the future movement, and the potential strength of the 92L system once in the S GOM.
12z GEOS-5 is in the western gulf, but notice how the precipitation is strung out to the northeast. Even if this goes west, moisture will try to get pulled away towards the north gulf coast. You will have a wet latter half to this week with or without a weak TS adding to it.

Quoting 815. stormpetrol:


I noticed that and headed due west.

Isn't that P20l or what 's left of it?
Quoting 821. Tropicsweatherpr:
Look at the low with 93L at 18z analysis how it goes WSW.



Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.

Quoting 828. wunderkidcayman:

the small vort just E of that has increase a good amount as well


wunderkidcayman, would that ULL in the CATL become a system as it heads toward FL?

Now that is a blob (Class A) Good call by the NHC.



Quoting 826. Patrap:


It does appear Pat that 92L is feeling those extremely warm SST in the area...
Is it a Blue Blood Blob, or just us regla folk type ?
838. Kyon5

Quoting 821. Tropicsweatherpr:
Look at the low with 93L at 18z analysis how it goes WSW.

If it manages to move farther south, then it might have a much better chance of getting stronger.
18z GFS initializing 93L at 1010mb.

Quoting 816. Grothar:
Pressure falling in the Caribbean

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.002N 81.501W
Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (86°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F


For those of you who missed the marine discussion an hour ago:

Sorry if this was posted already. I may never catch up. [AtHomeinTexas:)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
223 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE SE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION
ENTERING THE S CENTRAL GULF BY THU MORNING. DISAGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE WAVE
TAKING IT NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE N DIGS SOUTHWARD.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST 30 KT OF WIND IN THE NE GULF ON THE SE
SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES. THE REMAINDER OF GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE CMC...TAKES THE WAVE ON A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN SW GULF/BAY OF
CAMPECHE...PUSHING INLAND OVER MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.
Quoting 835. Grothar:
Now that is a blob (Class A) Good call by the NHC.





Gro WE getting hammered with rain in Grand cayman right now.



50km radar loop
..the wait is almost palatable then.
Quoting 833. kmanislander:


Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.



that low thats on the coast is 93L

Quoting 834. mitchelace5:


wunderkidcayman, would that ULL in the CATL become a system as it heads toward FL?


NO
Quoting 818. RTSplayer:
Well, I tested out of Statistics on the credit exam. I never took a college statistics class, but I crammed for two days from Cliffs Notes. Half of this stuff I already knew just from other math classes anyway, but about the second half of it is pretty hard to remember every formula and the table you're supposed to use.

It was the hardest math test I've actually passed, just because of the tedious nature of statistics, and trying to remember every formula ever invented. Of course, it is a credit exam with no actual instruction, and only 2 days actually teaching myself what I didn't already know. They didn't give a formula sheet at the test; just scratch paper and a basic calculator.

I actually found mistakes on the test itself. When the computer gave me the option to give feedback, I discussed that issue and the insane time restrictions of just 76 seconds per question.


Kudos to you. You studied w/ Cliffs Notes for 2 days and passed?? Many moons ago I took a stats class, struggled, eventually aced it. But there's no way I could have pulled it off in 2 days. Congratulations. What's next? Some differential equations over the weekend? :P
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.

No suprise this will go into mexico trust me!!
Quoting 824. Grothar:


Throw a few wars and an F5 tornado in with those hurricanes and you get close.
Yep......April 3rd, 1974...Xenia Ohio...I guess there war you were speaking of is my ex
I been looking at everything this evening.....been gone all day.....I see the NHC is saying the usual thing of things not going to be favorable by next week....in both waves in the ATL and Caribbean.....does anybody know why all of the sudden the NHC doesn't think conditions will be favorable ?
Quoting 844. wunderkidcayman:


that low thats on the coast is 93L


NO



He's talking about the wave in front of 93L
I wish people would leave Levi alone, lol. He may have said that a track towards the west was the favored solution, but by no means did he say a track towards the north and eventually northeast into the East Gulf Coast was impossible. Why are we even belittling people based on their opinions, which have been backed up with meteorology, anyways?

(Not referring to those who are joking with him about it, referring to the ones who are seriously picking on Levi because of his forecast(s))
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.


Oh don't worry he will find one that agrees with his thinking :P
Quoting 833. kmanislander:


Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.



I agree 100%. This wave may be the one that surprises all as it does not have model support.
Considerable bit of energy ahead of 93L.

My wifes humble pie is hard to swallow at first, but gets better with each bite.
I just like how when he sees something he sticks to it no matter what..it is all in good fun
The wave out in the Central Atlantic bears some watching too.

857. FOREX
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.


I'm hoping the FL panhandle is out of the woods is this develops.
Border patrol has now taken out extras to stop what ever storm is trying to come north in America.
Quoting 842. stormpetrol:


Gro WE getting hammered with rain in Grand cayman right now.



50km radar loop


I see that. A lot of energy down there.
Quoting 850. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wish people would leave Levi alone, lol. He may have said that a track towards the west was the favored solution, but by no means did he say a track towards the north and eventually northeast into the East Gulf Coast was impossible. Why are we even belittling people based on their opinions, which have been backed up with meteorology, anyways?
what are you leaning towards cods?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Out of Houston/Galveston


THE EXTENDED SHOWS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DISCERNIBLE WEATHER
FEATURE THAT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THE LOCAL SCALE
BREEZES. IF ANYTHING...RIDGING TAKES MORE OF A GRIP AND MID-LEVELS
ARE MODELED TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 20S BY THIS TIME NEXT
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THESE PAST FEW DAYS...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT ACTIVE...WITH THE NWP SUITE MAINTAINING
LOWERING PRESSURES AND A GREATER THAN 2 INCH PW AIR MASS. CENTRAL
GULF SHEAR REMAINS STOUT (30 KTS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER RIDGES) SO
NOT TOO WORRIED WITH ANY CLOSED-OFF CIRCULATION MOVING TOO FAR
NORTH OF THE BAY. 31
New blog!!!
By the way, Levi and I have a private joke between us. I always tease him that I will know what the models are going to be, and he always calls me a tease. We've been doing this for about 4 years.
The last paragraph, for anyone who just glanced at it:

THIS GRIDDED
PACKAGE WILL ***CONTINUE TO SHOW A PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM
THE WAVE MOVING TO THE N AND NE****...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
AT 15-20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINING WAVE AXIS CONTINUES WESTWARD
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
At last blobs everywhere,but now something is gonna happens.The low in CATL looks interesting and the one in CV impressive.
We are soaked here in Southern Mississippi also but not complaining. No drought, cloud cover, lower power bills, healthy grass. We will take a tropical storm and let someone else have the next hurricane.
Quoting 845. LAbonbon:


Kudos to you. You studied w/ Cliffs Notes for 2 days and passed?? Many moons ago I took a stats class, struggled, eventually aced it. But there's no way I could have pulled it off in 2 days. Congratulations. What's next? Some differential equations over the weekend? :P


No.

Differential Equations are where I get off the boat. That's what killed me at LSU. Although to be honest I probably would be better served if there were a standardized test for Differential Equations.

I still have my text from then. I don't know, I seem to have a mental block on it. I did good on the first test in the class, I think, and then I started flunking and never recovered.

I can do it when I actually have the text and formulas. Well, maybe that doesn't count for much on a college text, but in real life you'd always have access to the formulas, so it's really ridiculous that we weren't allowed to do that in class. I don't think an exam should actually be harder than real life expectations. It's ridiculous.

Did I mention LSU seems to do math curricula backwards? Statistics wasn't even on the curricula until you passed DE, but if there was any logic to it, Statistics would be taken before the Calculus block.



LSU tests are designed individually by the professors, and they're all jackasses or foreigner, who design a test so that if you miss one question you get a C and if you miss two you fail. We didn't get to use any formula sheets in that class either. At least in Calculus 2 we got to use formula sheets.

Anyway, I have about half of a math major now, and I'll probably never complete it in my lifetime. At least I'd need a teacher a hell of a lot better than what I had when I was back at LSU.

I'm at SLU now, but I'm not even sure I'm going to get in for the fall. I sort of last minute enrolled, so I'm just trying to test out of everything I can think of while I wait to see what the Dean(s) are going to let me do.
Quoting 867. prcane4you:
At last blobs everywhere,but now something is gonna happens.The low in CATL looks interesting and the one in CV impressive.

It was impressive as it formed over Sudan and headed westward!!
Quoting 818. RTSplayer:
Well, I tested out of Statistics on the credit exam. I never took a college statistics class, but I crammed for two days from Cliffs Notes. Half of this stuff I already knew just from other math classes anyway, but about the second half of it is pretty hard to remember every formula and the table you're supposed to use.

It was the hardest math test I've actually passed, just because of the tedious nature of statistics, and trying to remember every formula ever invented. Of course, it is a credit exam with no actual instruction, and only 2 days actually teaching myself what I didn't already know. They didn't give a formula sheet at the test; just scratch paper and a basic calculator.

I actually found mistakes on the test itself. When the computer gave me the option to give feedback, I discussed that issue and the insane time restrictions of just 76 seconds per question.
Great, I need a statistics CLEP to tell me the odds of arguably forecasting that the "S" storm would be THE "S"uperstorm of our lifetime.

The NSA has been giving me hell about that forecast. ;)

Post 399. OracleDeAtlantis 5:06 AM GMT on April 20, 2012:

As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we'll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.



Quoting 845. LAbonbon:


Kudos to you. You studied w/ Cliffs Notes for 2 days and passed?? Many moons ago I took a stats class, struggled, eventually aced it. But there's no way I could have pulled it off in 2 days. Congratulations. What's next? Some differential equations over the weekend? :P



Man, I wish I had taken DiffEq earlier in my collegiate career. It was the only C I ever earned.

( Calc I (AP credit), Calc I (for fun, A), Calc II (B, ouch), Discrete Math (B, robbed), Diffeq (C, hit by the train), Statistics (A, cakewalk), Stochastic Models for Computer Science (B , half-hearted), Computer Performance modeling (OMG the pain the pain, heaviest stats class I ever had.. AND married to programming, A-).

:-/ A pattern developed... all of my non-As are math-related courses (above). ALL of the most painful courses were math-related. And to think as a high schooler I adored the subject.


With that last course, I have reached the critical mass in both the coding and math skills to play with creating my own tropical models using neural network/perceptron-based networks, though. Now, if just to find some time...

Quoting 833. kmanislander:


Look at the other low that should soon be 94L

That may be the real threat, not 93L.



NICE!!!!
Quoting 869. RTSplayer:


No.

Differential Equations are where I get off the boat. That's what killed me at LSU. Although to be honest I probably would be better served if there were a standardized test for Differential Equations.

...

Did I mention LSU seems to do math curricula backwards? Statistics wasn't even on the curricula until you passed DE, but if there was any logic to it, Statistics would be taken before the Calculus block.



LSU tests are designed individually by the professors, and they're all jackasses or foreigner, who design a test so that if you miss one question you get a C and if you miss two you fail. We didn't get to use any formula sheets in that class either. At least in Calculus 2 we got to use formula sheets.

Anyway, I have about half of a math major now, and I'll probably never complete it in my lifetime. At least I'd need a teacher a hell of a lot better than what I had when I was back at LSU.

I'm at SLU now, but I'm not even sure I'm going to get in for the fall. I sort of last minute enrolled, so I'm just trying to test out of everything I can think of while I wait to see what the Dean(s) are going to let me do.


I started out at RPI, where as a freshman you'd have Calc II, Physics w/Calc, Chemistry w/Calc, some physical education course, and 2 related to your major (for me Assembly Language & Computing Fundamentals/Pascal).

At FAU (and other state schools) it's split up for at least some of the engineering/compsci disciplines. You take STA 2023 (statistics) and MAD 2104 (discrete math, for the probability) *before* Calc II, usually, but only learn the basics. Usually there is a secondary course at 4000-level (senior) that is like a Statistics II, but tailored to application in your major. It usually incorporates some Calc as well (con jugation of functions).

The latter course is also sort of like Statistical Modeling I, where you start to learn tools. Depending on your major, graduate work would include what you could maybe call Statistics III/Statistical Modeling II that starts knitting the stuff altogether. If your major is Meteorology, perhaps you start modeling tropical systems :). In computer science, you model software systems.

not much up top mauna loa which i climbed more likely the measurements were taken on mauna kea
Quoting 868. southernstorm:
We are soaked here in Southern Mississippi also but not complaining. No drought, cloud cover, lower power bills, healthy grass. We will take a tropical storm and let someone else have the next hurricane.


Speaking of Southern Mississippi, we play football against you this year (FAU vs Southern Miss) now we're in the C-USA. Southern Miss has a course I'd love to take for fun GY104 - Weather & Climate, GY104L - Weather & Climate Laboratory (wheee!). My school doesn't have coursework like this. Ocean Engineering, yes. Fun weather stuff, no.
Quoting 772. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well looks like the TAFB is leaning more towards the Northeast Gulf.



Quoting 790. Grothar:
I disagree. When it reaches the Gulf, it will have to move North.




Thank you most honorable master!
Quoting 841. Grothar:
I know Levi is going to grit his teeth, but when the models come out, one may have a little surprise.


Don't tease us master!
A lot of tit for tat going on with regards to models forecasts.... I guess it's always the same thing. Do I dare bring out the dreaded " W " word? JMO

Onward we go......................
Quoting 822. wunderkidcayman:
obs on E side of Grand Cayman is reading 44mph pressures still droping


How much has it dropped WKC and over what timeframe?
What exactly are a model having " convective feedback issues " ? in laymans terms please and TIA
Quoting 855. louisianaboy444:
I just like how when he sees something he sticks to it no matter what..it is all in good fun


I think he usually has a good reason for thinking the way he does pertaining to storm formation and track......... he is not in the " W " camp....JMO
How about we compare some model track error for 92L.. error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr..

NAM 54.9 104.4 77.9
NVGM 48.2 118.5 205.3

go ships!
SHIP 0 50.4 69.6

someone find this model!
GHMI 0 48.7 18.9

HWRF 15.4 72.2 108.4
LBAR 0 55.4 144.8

GFDI 0 48.7 18.9
GFDL 18.2 77.2 90.5

DSHP 0 50.4 69.6
FIM9 32.4 154.1 -

crow for the CMC haters..
CMC 47.7 78.3 37.5

AVNO 39.6 99.5 108.8
BAMD - 82.9 76.2
BAMM - 63.2 56.6
BAMS - 61.5 43.8

& the gfs ensemble mean..
AEMN 46.3 99.9 39.8