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Austria and Slovenia Set All-time Heat Records; Record Heat in Shanghai, China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:09 PM GMT on August 08, 2013

A historic heat wave is underway in Central Europe, where both both Austria and Slovenia set all-time national heat records on August 8. Three locations in Austria passed the 40°C (104°F) mark, beating the former national record of 39.9°C (103.8°F) set just last week, on August 3rd at Dellach im Drautal. According to the Austrian met service, ZAMG, the hottest spot was Bad Deutsch-Altenburg, with a 40.5°C (104.9°F) reading. Slovenia also surpassed its national heat record on August 8, with a 40.8°C (105.4°F) reading at Cerklje ob Krki (former record: 40.6°C (105.1°F) at Crnomelj on July 5, 1950.) Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, has broken its all-time heat record five of the past six days, with each day hotter than the previous record. The newest record is the 40.2°C (104.4°) recorded on August 8th. Records go back 150 years at this station.


Figure 1. South Korean children cool themselves off by playing in a fountain in downtown Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, Aug. 8, 2013. A heat wave warning was issued in South Korea as Ulsan reached 38.8°C (101.8°F), just 1.2°C short of South Korea’s national all-time record high of 40.0°C (104.0°F). (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

Remarkable heat in East Asia
China's most populous city, Shanghai, broke its all-time record for hottest temperature on record for the second time this summer on August 7, when the mercury topped out at 40.8°C (105.4°F). The previous record was set just the day before (40.6°C/105.1°F), and also on July 26th. Prior to this summer, the record for Shanghai was 40.2°C (104.4°F) during the summer of 1934. Records in Shanghai date back to 1872. Today (August 8th), the temperature peaked at 40.2°C (104.4°F), so Shanghai has had its four hottest days in its history this summer. Extreme heat was also experienced over South Korea and Japan today, and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post. Many more all-time heat records may have fallen in both Central Europe and East Asia, and Chris plans to update his post with all the latest records on Friday.

Extensive credit for researching these records goes to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive set of extreme temperature records on his web site.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. beell
Quoting 491. LAbonbon:


Beell - this struck me as quite humorous. I do a bit of on-line writing as a hobby. I recently wrote a story, with everything based in England. I had an on-line friend from London read it before submission. His comments back were quite funny and a tad bit scathing. Apparently I got next to no 'Britishisms' correct. Everything from sweater vs. jumper, to not understanding that 'pants' over there has a whole different meaning than here. Same language, but quite a bit was lost in translation :)


Im my limited search this morning I ran into the same issue with definitions that don't appear to make the trans-Atlantic crossing very well.

Thank you all for your help in resolving this major issue. A plain sleeveless dress or a sweater.

Yes, I like...

Forgive the OT.
Quoting 499. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:56 am (10:56 GMT)

Sunrise in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter sniffs the wind over at the Community Center in Lantana. I refer to it as 'the pasture' since it's his favorite place to 'graze'. After all, a dog does not live on kibble, chicken, pork, peanuts, marrow bones, and assorted treats alone! One must have one's roughage!

No rain yesterday, but as has been mentioned, the possibility increases today.

Morning cutie. You have had some competition this morning with the Neapolitan Mastiff picture posted. But Dexter you are still number 1!!!
Quoting 495. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone.

GFS Shows a 999 mb. TS in the BOC:



FIM-7 Shows a moderate/strong TS in the North Central Gulf:



FIM-8 Shows a hurricane making landfall in Mexico:



FIM-9 which only goes out to 168 hrs. shows a system on the north Yucatan coast:



Caleb - you may have posted this before, but what are the differences between the three (FIM 7, 8, 9)? Meaning, any idea why such different results?
Hello.
Quoting 502. SouthernIllinois:

Morning cutie. You have had some competition this morning with the Neapolitan Mastiff picture posted. But Dexter you are still number 1!!!


Oh really?!! Competition eh? I've been so busy, haven't had time to check the blog properly, but I'll have to go look for Nea's post. If Dex could, there's no doubt he'd give you a very big, wet and tickly kiss!
Quoting MrMixon:


Just in case it wasn't apparent, that forecast puts Hong Kong (pop. 7.07 million) and Shanghai (pop. 23.47 million) in the cone for a Cat 4...


Sorry I have been missing all day, not been well.

MrMixon
I don't know where you think Shanghai is but you are way off. You are close with Hong Kong though. Looks like a Shenhai peninsula Typhoon.
I bet this fills in a lot more as the day goes on, looks like it could be another wet one!

Quoting 506. mikatnight:


Oh really?!! Competition eh? I've been so busy, haven't had time to check the blog properly, but I'll have to go look for Nea's post. If Dex could, there's no doubt he'd give you a very big, wet and tickly kiss!

I NEED it! And he'd get one right back!! lol
Quoting 499. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:56 am (10:56 GMT)

Sunrise in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter sniffs the wind over at the Community Center in Lantana. I refer to it as 'the pasture' since it's his favorite place to 'graze'. After all, a dog does not live on kibble, chicken, pork, peanuts, marrow bones, and assorted treats alone! One must have one's roughage!

No rain yesterday, but as has been mentioned, the possibility increases today.
Nice pics, Dexter looks quite happy on his morning walk. Good morning....everyone enjoy your day.
Quoting 505. SouthernIllinois:
Hello.



HEY YOU! Did you see the graphics I put up for Precip. on my site.
512. VR46L
Quoting 508. 69Viking:
I bet this fills in a lot more as the day goes on, looks like it could be another wet one!



When is the last day you guys in the West of the Panhandle not seen rain ... It seems like every day !
Quoting 511. TampaSpin:



HEY YOU! Did you see the graphics I put up for Precip. on my site.

I did Tim. And I ABSOLUTELY love them! Thank you and I was glad I was able to help and inspire. Site was bookmarked on each of my computers and visited SEVERAL times since!
514. Siker
Quoting 504. LAbonbon:


Caleb - you may have posted this before, but what are the differences between the three (FIM 7, 8, 9)? Meaning, any idea why such different results?

Not Caleb but I'll answer: Each of the FIM's is a different resolution, 7 being the lowest, 8 being the middlest, and 9 being the highest. This means that the 9 should be the most accurate but it also only goes out to 168 hours compared to the 336 hours of the 7 and 8.
Good Morning Everyone :o)


Well still not much going own right now and with the NHC lowering there numbers, I would say that they are getting closer to what I thought the season would be.... It's Friday and with all what I have to do. Guess I'll check back next week to see how things are going....
You all have a great weekend :o)

Taco :o)
Just as I predicted. :):)


Quoting 475. hurricanes2018:
watching!
Watching??? What exactly are we watching? Looks like a graveyard to me.
Quoting 514. Siker:

Not Caleb but I'll answer: Each of the FIM's is a different resolution, 7 being the lowest, 8 being the middlest, and 9 being the highest. This means that the 9 should be the most accurate but it also only goes out to 168 hours compared to the 336 hours of the 7 and 8.


Siker - Thanks so much for the clarification.
Quoting 515. taco2me61:
Good Morning Everyone :o)


Well still not much going own right now and with the NHC lowering there numbers, I would say that they are getting closer to what I thought the season would be.... It's Friday and with all what I have to do. Guess I'll check back next week to see how things are going....
You all have a great weekend :o)

Taco :o)


Hey Brother....NOTHING IN THE TROPICS in the Atlantic heading toward anyone is always a sweet thing!
Now you realize when Pat comes on, he will post the same images I have, so let's see how long it takes him.


Meanwhile in Korea:
Heat wave turns deadly, as new concerns about power shortages rise
Quoting 422. ColdInFL:
The earth always find a way to balance itself:

Link

Yeah, it looks pretty balanced for the whole month: "Nighttime* Low Temperature Records:
1,930 records were set or tied for the warmest nighttime low temperature at a weather station.
1,012 records were set or tied for the coldest nightime low temperature at a weather station.
Daytime* High Temperature Records:
660 records were set or tied for the warmest daytime high temperature at a weather station.
1,590 records were set or tied for the coldest daytime high temperature at a weather station."

I make that 2590 record high temps/high minimums to 2602 record low/low maximums for the US in July. That's pretty balanced. :)

Edit to include link: http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/climate-centr als-record-temperature-tracker/

Sorry about that.
South Florida is going to get soaked again. If this pattern continues for the Gulf and SE through hurricane season, any storm making landfall is going to be a huge problem in terms of flooding issues and trees and limbs falling down because of the very soaked ground and trees/limbs.

It comes with the territory every year but this year especially.
People on the blog seam to give Nea a hard time today. He convinced me to look at the data and the data convinced me that something is def happening.

I don't think every little thing that happens is due to GW, however when you step back from individual things and look at the big picture,,, the planet as a whole.......something is changing...not for the better.

How much of it is due to humans??? Natural causes????? big yellow ball in sky????

fossil fuels are polluting our air. You know that is right here right now.

Put a medical mask on and just sit on your couch for two hours and see how much crap it catches that would be in your lungs....
two nice waves over Africa.



Blob watch for Southern Florida.

Quoting 526. Grothar:
two nice waves over Africa.



Blob watch for Southern Florida.





Are at blogcon1?
Quoting 520. TampaSpin:


Hey Brother....NOTHING IN THE TROPICS in the Atlantic heading toward anyone is always a sweet thing!

I do like this :o) I would hope we "Not" have anything this year, Just saying

Taco :o)
Overview, including Japan now:
Off for the day.....Still think we need to watch the ULL low off the tip of Florida....Its now a MIDLEVEL LOW! Here is the 700mb Vorticity.....there was basically nothing there yesterday.....Something to watch and about the only thing to watch outside way off the coast of Africa. Have a great day everyone!

Quoting 516. Grothar:
Just as I predicted. :):)




Official blobage?
BLOB BLOB BLOB
OK. Gotta get gone. Good day to all...
Quoting 526. Grothar:
two nice waves over Africa.



Blob watch for Southern Florida.



I hope the blob stays south of Lake O.
Youtube heat wave videos from the US (August, 8):

US heat wave Dozens succumb to heat in western US

Power Outages Strike NYC as Heat Wave Continues

Okay, enough with the heat from my side for a while ;)
Some more videos from Eastern Europe are in the comment section of my blog.
Have a nice afternoon!
Quoting 536. rmbjoe1954:


I hope the blob stays south of Lake O.


Not too good for the Everglades either.
Quoting 532. StormPro:


Official blobage?


Official Blob Watch only.
Quoting 531. TampaSpin:
Off for the day.....Still think we need to watch the ULL low off the tip of Florida....Its now a MIDLEVEL LOW! Here is the 700mb Vorticity.....there was basically nothing there yesterday.....Something to watch and about the only thing to watch outside way off the coast of Africa. Have a great day everyone!


Good day Tim. Forget to ask but hope you had a good time at the Rays game yesterday!!
Looks like the GFS is up to it's usual tricks with the 12z and 00z runs wanting hurricanes to spin up, and the 06z and 18z runs wanting nothing to really get going. Here's last night's 00z GFS run at 288 hours.


We're getting into the time of season where these things develop, regardless of what models are saying. The Euro, predictably, does not develop any tropical cyclones through the next 240 hours. Given how terrible it's preforming with picking up any tropical cyclones on this planet (it's been showing most of the storms in the Pacific as weak lows from what I've seen), that's not surprising.
Quoting 539. Grothar:


Official Blob Watch only.

That is why I asked Sensi, for I am not qualified
Quoting 516. Grothar:
Just as I predicted. :):)




Blob alert...I'm watchin' now :)
florida having lots of rain this year..
Quoting 527. Autistic2:


Are at blogcon1?


No, just Blob Watch. BlobCon may be issued later.
Quoting 541. CybrTeddy:
Looks like the GFS is up to it's usual tricks with the 12z and 00z runs wanting hurricanes to spin up, and the 06z and 18z runs wanting nothing to really get going. Here's last night's 00z GFS run at 288 hours.


We're getting into the time of season where these things develop, regardless of what models are saying. The Euro, predictably, does not develop any tropical cyclones through the next 240 hours. Given how terrible it's preforming with picking up any tropical cyclones on this planet (it's been showing most of the storms in the Pacific as weak lows from what I've seen), that's not surprising.


Now, are the 06z and 18z more, less, or the same reliability as the 12z and 00z runs?
Quoting 541. CybrTeddy:
Looks like the GFS is up to it's usual tricks with the 12z and 00z runs wanting hurricanes to spin up, and the 06z and 18z runs wanting nothing to really get going. Here's last night's 00z GFS run at 288 hours.


We're getting into the time of season where these things develop, regardless of what models are saying. The Euro, predictably, does not develop any tropical cyclones through the next 240 hours. Given how terrible it's preforming with picking up any tropical cyclones on this planet (it's been showing most of the storms in the Pacific as weak lows from what I've seen), that's not surprising.

It's the same old song and dance Teddy. Yawn.
A spectacular and large waterspout was observed this late morning along the coastline of Varazze in the region Liguria, Italy.
Accompanied weather was heavy rainfall, over 30mm of rain was reported in a short time. More waterspouts are possible today.

Via meteoweb.

Quoting 546. yankees440:


Now, are the 06z and 18z more, less, or the same reliability as the 12z and 00z runs?


Only slightly less so from the data I've seen.
surprise surprise, rain in Missouri

Hello all,

I am new here, but I have read Dr. Masters' blog for a number of years. My first hurricane was before I had a memory, the year I was born, 1957. Audrey. My brother lost his house and just about everything he owned when the storm surge in Ocean Springs from Katrina hit 20 feet. He lived in Gulf Hills and watched the water go up to the roof of his house from the Gulf Hills Hotel. He has since moved back to Baton Rouge, where we are all from.

I have always been fascinated with weather ever since the first hurricane I have memory of, Hurricane Hilda in 1964.

I sometimes have read the blog comments and gotten some good information. Having read the rules of the road for this blog, I am finding increasingly that people seem to use it to chit-chat. Not that I have a problem with that. I think sweaters are great, just not on a tropical weather forum.

What I would like to see is more charts, graphs and explanation of same and less, well, off-topic posts. And I know I can put people on ignore, etc. I just want to see more discussions of actual weather.

Also, I know many in the U.S. need rain, but wishing a hurricane, TS or TD would come to fix it may fix your problem, but it causes a whole bunch of grief as well. Be careful what you wish for. Last year large portions of Louisiana were in the middle of a moderate drought, some in a severe drought. Then came a storm named Isaac which dumped 14 inches of rain in my neighborhood alone and I live 90 miles inland. Not to mention the 40 mph winds which went along with it. The water came up to my sidewalk and if it hadn't been for the dry period right before, my house probably would have flooded. Not to mention what it did to areas of Maurepa, Slidell, Mandeville, Laplace and beyond.

It's easy to joke about such things, but those who have survived a Katrina, an Andrew, a Rita or an Ike often break out in a cold sweat when it's even hinted that something is brewing in the Gulf or the Atlantic. I would imagine, given the names on some of these posts, that there are more than a few of those survivors on this blog.

Just something to think about. And those who choose to do so, can now put me on your ignore list.
Another BOC mexican storm?.How many have we seen of those since 2010 alone?.Yawn.I hope to get a storm like this to track..

Quoting 537. barbamz:
Youtube heat wave videos from the US (August, 8):

US heat wave Dozens succumb to heat in western US

Power Outages Strike NYC as Heat Wave Continues

Okay, enough with the heat from my side for a while ;)
Have a nice afternoon!


Hey barbamz - I think these two videos are old. They were posted to Youtube yesterday, but the conditions they talk about were not. The NYC video shows heat advisory warnings, for example, that were not in place. These appear to be (based on memory only) a couple of weeks old. Unfortunately, the poster does not include any info as to the actual date recorded.
awesome storms of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season
hurricane dean



hurricane felix

Big flare-up in the SW Caribbean, where development is supposed to take place.

Also Blob watch in Florida may be extended.



Quoting 552. washingtonian115:
Another BOC mexican storm?.How many have we seen of those since 2010 alone?.Yawn.I hope to get a storm like this to track..


It's not a yawn. 00z gfs had in northern mx aaffecting southern tx!!
Quoting 551. LAsurvivor:
Hello all,

I am new here, but I have read Dr. Masters' blog for a number of years. My first hurricane was before I had a memory, the year I was born, 1957. Audrey. My brother lost his house and just about everything he owned when the storm surge in Ocean Springs from Katrina hit 20 feet. He lived in Gulf Hills and watched the water go up to the roof of his house from the Gulf Hills Hotel. He has since moved back to Baton Rouge, where we are all from.

I have always been fascinated with weather ever since the first hurricane I have memory of, Hurricane Hilda in 1964.

I sometimes have read the blog comments and gotten some good information. Having read the rules of the road for this blog, I am finding increasingly that people seem to use it to chit-chat. Not that I have a problem with that. I think sweaters are great, just not on a tropical weather forum.

What I would like to see is more charts, graphs and explanation of same and less, well, off-topic posts. And I know I can put people on ignore, etc. I just want to see more discussions of actual weather.

Also, I know many in the U.S. need rain, but wishing a hurricane, TS or TD would come to fix it may fix your problem, but it causes a whole bunch of grief as well. Be careful what you wish for. Last year large portions of Louisiana were in the middle of a moderate drought, some in a severe drought. Then came a storm named Isaac which dumped 14 inches of rain in my neighborhood alone and I live 90 miles inland. Not to mention the 40 mph winds which went along with it. The water came up to my sidewalk and if it hadn't been for the dry period right before, my house probably would have flooded. Not to mention what it did to areas of Maurepa, Slidell, Mandeville, Laplace and beyond.

It's easy to joke about such things, but those who have survived a Katrina, an Andrew, a Rita or an Ike often break out in a cold sweat when it's even hinted that something is brewing in the Gulf or the Atlantic. I would imagine, given the names on some of these posts, that there are more than a few of those survivors on this blog.

Just something to think about. And those who choose to do so, can now put me on your ignore list.

Welcome!
Quoting 551. LAsurvivor:
Hello all,

I am new here, but I have read Dr. Masters' blog for a number of years. My first hurricane was before I had a memory, the year I was born, 1957. Audrey. My brother lost his house and just about everything he owned when the storm surge in Ocean Springs from Katrina hit 20 feet. He lived in Gulf Hills and watched the water go up to the roof of his house from the Gulf Hills Hotel. He has since moved back to Baton Rouge, where we are all from.

I have always been fascinated with weather ever since the first hurricane I have memory of, Hurricane Hilda in 1964.

I sometimes have read the blog comments and gotten some good information. Having read the rules of the road for this blog, I am finding increasingly that people seem to use it to chit-chat. Not that I have a problem with that. I think sweaters are great, just not on a tropical weather forum.

What I would like to see is more charts, graphs and explanation of same and less, well, off-topic posts. And I know I can put people on ignore, etc. I just want to see more discussions of actual weather.

Also, I know many in the U.S. need rain, but wishing a hurricane, TS or TD would come to fix it may fix your problem, but it causes a whole bunch of grief as well. Be careful what you wish for. Last year large portions of Louisiana were in the middle of a moderate drought, some in a severe drought. Then came a storm named Isaac which dumped 14 inches of rain in my neighborhood alone and I live 90 miles inland. Not to mention the 40 mph winds which went along with it. The water came up to my sidewalk and if it hadn't been for the dry period right before, my house probably would have flooded. Not to mention what it did to areas of Maurepa, Slidell, Mandeville, Laplace and beyond.

It's easy to joke about such things, but those who have survived a Katrina, an Andrew, a Rita or an Ike often break out in a cold sweat when it's even hinted that something is brewing in the Gulf or the Atlantic. I would imagine, given the names on some of these posts, that there are more than a few of those survivors on this blog.

Just something to think about. And those who choose to do so, can now put me on your ignore list.

Is the 12Z NAM on to something or just out to lunch. This is the run 27 hours out. Holy Smokes!! Big rains for Cypress!! :)

What say you, LAsurvivor??

Quoting 556. RGVtropicalWx13:

It's not a yawn. 00z gfs had in northern mx aaffecting southern tx!!

Yawn
Quoting 552. washingtonian115:
Another BOC mexican storm?.How many have we seen of those since 2010 alone?.Yawn.I hope to get a storm like this to track..


I want a storm like that too!
Go here for the funniest discussion on Alberto..ever.
Link
12Z NAM (21 hours) has been very consistant taking a large blob of precipitation into Mexico.
12z NAM - 27 hours
Quoting 559. SouthernIllinois:

Yawn

Little did u know I live down there? But how about you? U live where only remnant tropical cyclones pass and dump rain. Btw would it still be a yawn if it was a hurricane!!
Quoting 563. RGVtropicalWx13:

Little did u know I live down there? But how about you? U live where only remnant tropical cyclones pass and dump rain. Btw would it still be a yawn if it was a hurricane!!

Nope. But I think we both know that ain't gonna happen. It'll be a disorganized sloppy mess.

Yawn.
Quoting 553. LAbonbon:


Hey barbamz - I think these two videos are old. They were posted to Youtube yesterday, but the conditions they talk about were not. The NYC video shows heat advisory warnings, for example, that were not in place. These appear to be (based on memory only) a couple of weeks old. Unfortunately, the poster does not include any info as to the actual date recorded.


LAbonbon, thank you. I've been wondering by myself about the date of the videos from the East Coast, as constantly new (?) ones about the heat (though not record breaking) did show up in the last days, but nobody on our blog was complaining about any heat in this region ;)
Quoting 551. LAsurvivor:
Hello all,

It's not showing.But this is a oscar nomination.
NAM - 36 hours
Still lots of precipitation in the GOM but not much development.
Quoting 470. VR46L:


Texas Could Actually do with a Tropical storm or a Cat one cane for the drought situation, but Florida .. not so good as they are near on the verge of flooding and the Lake O situation is a concern too .


You've got that right. We have some pretty awesome BBQ and beer down here. Heck if we get a nice wet storm roll through I'll even mix up some margaritas for the hurricane party to follow. TGIF :)
Quoting 565. barbamz:


LAbonbon, thank you. I've been wondering by myself about the date of the videos from the East Coast, as constantly new (?) ones about the heat (though not record braking) did show up in the last days, but nobody on our blog was complaining about any heat ;)


Weelll, those of us from TX, LA, and points north have been baking...but our fellow bloggers to the far north have had a nice reprieve.
Quoting 568. calkevin77:


You've got that right. We have some pretty awesome BBQ and beer down here. Heck if we get a nice wet storm roll through I'll even mix up some margaritas for the hurricane party to follow. TGIF :)

My kind of Party!!! :)

Nat
571. VR46L
Quoting 558. SouthernIllinois:

Is the 12Z NAM on to something or just out to lunch. This is the run 27 hours out. Holy Smokes!! Big rains for Cypress!! :)

What say you, LAsurvivor??



I am watching the Gulf Really think the Cloud of interest over Cuba could do with some watching ...

572. VR46L
Quoting 568. calkevin77:


You've got that right. We have some pretty awesome BBQ and beer down here. Heck if we get a nice wet storm roll through I'll even mix up some margaritas for the hurricane party to follow. TGIF :)


Yeah I am not known for being a wishcaster despite what seems to have been taken from what I said .. A good rainmaking TS or Cat 1 would help reverse this map and drought is a bigger killer than storms when you look at the big picture

Looks like LA could even do with one

One more question, is it still a yawn if this hits Mexico and kills people? Don't you respect those folks??
Quoting 570. SouthernIllinois:

My kind of Party!!! :)

Nat


That's how we roll :) Then its off to 6th Street in downtown Austin. No cane or tropical storm yet so I'm just gonna have to call it a drought party. Same food and drinks but you're still invited. We've got that drought party down to a science here.
Nam 12z at 45 hours
Quoting 574. calkevin77:


That's how we roll :) Then its off to 6th Street in downtown Austin. No cane or tropical storm yet so I'm just gonna have to call it a drought party. Same food and drinks but you're still invited. We've got that drought party down to a science here.

We've got that drought party down to a science here.

Haha. I am sure you do! Thank you!! And I LOVE Austin. Been there once as a little girl. Don't remember nothing but I have talked to literally DOZENS of friends/family who just went ON and ON about how great Austin is for a place to live and visit!!!

I'll meet ya there later with my party hat. May show up a lil tipsy but y'll still wanna take me in. I am LOADS of fun!! :)
One would think the NAM would be a very reliable model seeing that its on goes out 84 hours.

But it doesn't have a very good record predicting tropical weather. But every once in a while it gets it right.
I want a long lasting storm like this!!!


But no threat to land.
12z NAM - 54 hours, very little change
Goodmorning, the beasts from the East will start showing thier faces 10 to 14 days from now. I wouldnt become complacent, because we currently only have tropical scraps. The bad one is coming....the million dollar question is when.... and who will get it?
Wet in the S.E...A spin heading for Texas.
Quoting 572. VR46L:


Yeah I am not known for being a wishcaster despite what seems to have been taken from what I said .. A good rainmaking TS or Cat 1 would help reverse this map and drought is a bigger killer than storms when you look at the big picture

Looks like LA could even do with one



I hear you about the wishcasting. I wouldn't wish for a catastrophic storm but like you said a decent rain maker would be great. Unfortunately since most of the state West of College station needs about 9+ inches we would need about two or three decent 4-5 inch storms over about a ten day period. Just enough to refill the lakes before evaporation takes place and def before any flash flood runoff type thing. Also the storms would need to be about the same diameter as Typhoon tip to really cover the state and get in there. I'm not asking for too much here am I lol.
12z NAM - 60 hours
Trying oh so hard to get something going in the southern GOM.
Quoting 573. RGVtropicalWx13:
One more question, is it still a yawn if this hits Mexico and kills people? Don't you respect those folks??
That is an ignorant question.
Quoting 512. VR46L:


When is the last day you guys in the West of the Panhandle not seen rain ... It seems like every day !


We've had 1 day this week without rain and at least .25" of rain every other day.
Hmm unresponsive to my last question I see. Thinking u do respect Mexico then.
589. etxwx
Good morning, day, evening all. It's August, it's Texas and it's hot today:

But at least our rain chances are increasing and the temps are going down a bit. Ya'll have a good day, stay cool. And keep put your jumpers on...

calkevin77 #568, was that a Louie Mueller shout out? Now you've made my mouth water! :-)
Quoting 586. 69Viking:


We've had 1 day this week without rain and at least .25" of rain every other day.


Very simimlar here in South Ft. Myers. Yesterday we picked up a quick .94" of rain. At my house, we've picked up at least .25" every day for as long as I can remember.
Quoting 575. SouthernIllinois:


Its cool seeing all the sun glint(the blue streaks from the radar sites) working its way across the SE radar sites as the sun rises.

Very cool loop, SoIll! :)
Quoting 531. TampaSpin:
Off for the day.....Still think we need to watch the ULL low off the tip of Florida....Its now a MIDLEVEL LOW! Here is the 700mb Vorticity.....there was basically nothing there yesterday.....Something to watch and about the only thing to watch outside way off the coast of Africa. Have a great day everyone!



Tampa I think you're right, a lot more convection firing off of it today compared to previous days. Waters where it's at are warm and they don't get any cooler where it's headed. If this thing could push NW it could bring much needed relief to Texas.
Quoting 592. SouthernIllinois:

YAY!
more rain!
Quoting 579. 62901IL:
I want a long lasting storm like this!!!


But no threat to land.

That track looks like some of my beadwork after I've had a drink or two. Yes, please. A nice storm to track that threatens no one. We learn from those.


Convection
Quoting 591. seminolesfan:


Its cool seeing all the sun glint(the blue streaks from the radar sites) working its way across the SE radar sites as the sun rises.

Very cool loop, SoIll! :)

Thanks SeminolesFan!! :) It's one of my favorite for sure. It really gives the big picture of what's happening.
12z NAM - GOM blob not so noticable
Caribbean heating up
Quoting 596. seer2012:


Convection


Nice colors.
Quoting 590. Sfloridacat5:


Very simimlar here in South Ft. Myers. Yesterday we picked up a quick .94" of rain. At my house, we've picked up at least .25" every day for as long as I can remember.


True! I got .78 yesterday. More on the way today from that spinner in the Bahamas
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)


Some folks may have seen this, but here's an article from Wednesday's Miami-Herald "Despite Lake Okeechobee dumping, dike danger continues to rise"

Link

It has a good explanation of lake level(s) and relation to potential failure of the Herbert Hoover dike. An excerpt from the article:

"According to a 2000 Corps study, the risks of a dike failure rise significantly at 17 feet. At 18 feet, the probability is 45 percent. At 20, a breach somewhere along the dike is likely, with damaging and potentially deadly flooding. Those probabilities didn’t take into account the most recent repairs, but even with those, the Corps still rates the dike among a handful of the most high-risk in the nation."

Current water level is 16.04 ft Link
Quoting 577. SouthernIllinois:

We've got that drought party down to a science here.

Haha. I am sure you do! Thank you!! And I LOVE Austin. Been there once as a little girl. Don't remember nothing but I have talked to literally DOZENS of friends/family who just went ON and ON about how great Austin is for a place to live and visit!!!

I'll meet ya there later with my party hat. May show up a lil tipsy but y'll still wanna take me in. I am LOADS of fun!! :)


Haha for sure Nat. I'd probably be more tipsy than you so its all good :) I couldn't agree more. I lived on the West Coast and went to school up in Oregon which was awesome and then checked out Austin four years ago and never looked back. Yeah we all talk a lot of crap about the heat down here but I love Austin so much that its all good. The people are so friendly, the scene is so much fun and its just plain groovy. Oh and yeah its hot in the Summer but the Winters rock out here. Sometimes there's a dusting of snow but it happens maybe once every couple of years. I do though miss the four seasons of the Northwest. We have just three here: hot, Satan wants his heat back hot, and not hot...Each with an 80% chance of brisket and ribs.
little.blob.s.of.hispanola
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)




Okay. It's not an 'I', so is it an 'O'?
8-))
Not sure why this hasn't been declared a tropical storm yet.

Gulf Coast is open for business towards the peak of the season.. I must add, this is kind of disturbing given the SST's in the GOM.



The NCEP Ensemble gives the area in the SW Caribbean a moderate chance of developement,from now through a 120 hours. Wind shear will be on the decrease. The TUTT is moving W and ventilating the Caribbean. This may be the next one to track.
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)


is that an eye



sorry gro just had to
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)




Donut Alert!
Quoting 605. calkevin77:


Haha for sure Nat. I'd probably be more tipsy than you so its all good :) I couldn't agree more. I lived on the West Coast and went to school up in Oregon which was awesome and then checked out Austin four years ago and never looked back. Yeah we all talk a lot of crap about the heat down here but I love Austin so much that its all good. The people are so friendly, the scene is so much fun and its just plain groovy. Oh and yeah its hot in the Summer but the Winters rock out here. Sometimes there's a dusting of snow but it happens maybe once every couple of years. I do though miss the four seasons of the Northwest. We have just three here: hot, Satan wants his heat back hot, and not hot...Each with an 80% chance of brisket and ribs.

LOL!! Without a doubt!! That's sound awesome. If you can get past the heat (with seems to be outweighed with all the great stuff as it is!), then how can you go wrong!

I am SO there! Yet another place to put down on my vacation list. Oh wait, the party is tonight....

YIPPIE!!!
My first hurricane memory was Erin in 95. Loved playing in the flooded streets afterwards. Either drainage wasn't very good or that girl dropped alot of rain! Streets flooded a good 18 to 24 inches all over our neighborhood.
Looking forward to this years version!
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)




It's a cat5 that some how went unnoticed by the NHC.
Quoting 573. RGVtropicalWx13:
One more question, is it still a yawn if this hits Mexico and kills people? Don't you respect those folks??


Girl I see you've made a friend LOL!
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)


Getting very nasty!! and dark here in Miami, Dade County,I believe we are going to have a very stormy day!! here in South Florida,that Upper level Low that was dry yesterday is picking up a lot of moisture from the Caribbean.
I find it highly interesting that Dr Masters has ignored to news events that contradict GW that have come to light this week.

First, there was an article on how the Arctic had their shortest "summer" in terms of temps in years.

Next was the following article that I have linked to which references the fact that the sun has much more influence on our climate than CO2. (Sorry Communists) Link

Perhaps we can get a little more balanced coverage next week but I am not holding my breath.

Bert
Quoting 613. stormhawg:


Donut Alert!


LOL.
Quoting 612. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is that an eye



sorry gro just had to


:P
Quoting 619. bjrabbit:
I find it highly interesting that Dr Masters has ignored to news events that contradict GW that have come to light this week.

First, there was an article on how the Arctic had their shortest "summer" in terms of temps in years.

Next was the following article that I have linked to which references the fact that the sun has much more influence on our climate than CO2. (Sorry Communists) Link

Perhaps we can get a little more balanced coverage next week but I am not holding my breath.

Bert


your link is broken
Expanded view of donut hole. Lots of convection heading towards S. Florida/Florida straights.
Quoting 617. 69Viking:


Girl I see you've made a friend LOL!

I am no girl LOL!! Nice try! :P
625. 7544
Quoting 623. Sfloridacat5:
Expanded view of donut hole. Lots of convection heading towards S. Florida/Florida straights.


looks more like a shrimp now lol get ready gro its comin towards you !
only 5-10 knots of shear, the NHC should crayon this at 2.

lets not forget about the warm water.


Quoting 626. chrisdscane:
only 5-10 knots of shear, the NHC should crayon this at 2.

lets not forget about the warm water.




crayon what?
Not much vort that may change, it needs to break away from the Tutt to have a better shot.
NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:
•13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including ◦6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
◦3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)


These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

“The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it’s important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November," said Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery. "Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”


NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


Quoting 627. VAbeachhurricanes:


crayon what?



The convection east of FL, however at most a 0-10% its in a decent environment
Quoting chrisdscane:



The convection east of FL, however at most a 0-10% its in a decent environment


What about that huge wave coming off Africa?
Next Thursday maybe we have something to watch below CUBA..
Quoting 626. chrisdscane:
only 5-10 knots of shear, the NHC should crayon this at 2.

lets not forget about the warm water.



Only if they're really bored. It's just some convection kicked up in a divergent region of that mid/upper low.





There is no low level vort with that batch of thunderstorms whatsoever.

Quoting 619. bjrabbit:
I find it highly interesting that Dr Masters has ignored to news events that contradict GW that have come to light this week.

First, there was an article on how the Arctic had their shortest "summer" in terms of temps in years.

Next was the following article that I have linked to which references the fact that the sun has much more influence on our climate than CO2. (Sorry Communists) Link

Perhaps we can get a little more balanced coverage next week but I am not holding my breath.

Bert


Not gonna happen and be prepared to get attacked.
635. yoboi
Quoting 619. bjrabbit:
I find it highly interesting that Dr Masters has ignored to news events that contradict GW that have come to light this week.

First, there was an article on how the Arctic had their shortest "summer" in terms of temps in years.

Next was the following article that I have linked to which references the fact that the sun has much more influence on our climate than CO2. (Sorry Communists) Link

Perhaps we can get a little more balanced coverage next week but I am not holding my breath.

Bert



Your link is not working........
Quoting 631. mitchelace5:


What about that huge wave coming off Africa?



The Nhc may wait alittle longer, sal and dry air still a problem out there, plus low model support should stear them away from mentioning it.
nothing at all close to the USA for a week according to GFS
Quoting 637. LargoFl:
Quoting 633. 1900hurricane:

Only if they're really bored. It's just some convection kicked up in the divergent region of that mid/upper low.





There is no low level vort with that batch of thunderstorms whatsoever.



Yep, I've seen them do it before which is why I mentioned it.
Quoting 618. Hurricane1956:
Getting very nasty!! and dark here in Miami, Dade County,I believe we are going to have a very stormy day!! here in South Florida,that Upper level Low that was dry yesterday is picking up a lot of moisture from the Caribbean.


Very heavy downpours every few minutes.
Quoting 633. 1900hurricane:

Only if they're really bored. It's just some convection kicked up in a divergent region of that mid/upper low.





There is no low level vort with that batch of thunderstorms whatsoever.



Can't you ever let us have any fun? :)
Quoting 640. Grothar:


Very heavy downpours every few minutes.
gee that's what we had here..last night..real bad storms.
Quoting 641. Grothar:


Can't you ever let us have any fun? :)

Nope. My job in this place is to be the fun police. Haven't you noticed I only appear when people are having too much fun? :P
Quoting 625. 7544:


looks more like a shrimp now lol get ready gro its comin towards you !


Yikes, an elongated TUTT. Something I've always been afraid of.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH CANT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100F EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE REACH BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)



Its an eye it has to be an eye.
Quoting 642. LargoFl:
gee that's what we had here..last night..real bad storms.


That is what I heard. I have a sister who lives up near you and she called last night. I don't care for her much so I pay very little attention to what she says.
Quoting 648. Grothar:


That is what I heard. I have a sister who lives up near you and she called last night. I don't care for her much so I pay very little attention to what she says.
yeah we were getting 2-3 inches of rain an hour and real windy and lightning etc.
Quoting 644. 1900hurricane:

Nope. My job in this place is to be the fun police. Haven't you noticed I only appear when people are having too much fun? :P


Aw, come on, 1900, let them enjoy their bob while they can. :)
Quoting 647. 62901IL:

Its an eye it has to be an eye.
it hasen`t blinked so its a hole :P
Quoting 652. Josihua2:
it hasen`t blinked so its a hole :P

LOL.
Quoting 613. stormhawg:


Donut Alert!


Quoting 624. RGVtropicalWx13:

I am no girl LOL!! Nice try! :P


I was referencing SouthernIllinois, the girl you were harassing.
Quoting 619. bjrabbit:
I find it highly interesting that Dr Masters has ignored to news events that contradict GW that have come to light this week.

First, there was an article on how the Arctic had their shortest "summer" in terms of temps in years.

Next was the following article that I have linked to which references the fact that the sun has much more influence on our climate than CO2. (Sorry Communists) Link

Perhaps we can get a little more balanced coverage next week but I am not holding my breath.

Bert
"Balanced coverage"? You should know by now that there's science, and then there's not science; giving supporters of the latter equal audience with the former is as far from "balanced" as one can possibly get.
.
Quoting 603. Grothar:
Dark clouds moving in from the beach and SE in Fort Lauderdale. We are already getting light rain.

And please don't ask if that is an eye :)




Is that an "eye"..lol..jk
My first Hurricane experience that I can remember was David in 1979. I was young but I remember my father putting the awnings down and cutting the limbs of the avocado tree.

Here we go again.
Quoting 661. MisterPerfect:
My first Hurricane experience that I can remember was David in 1979. I was young but I remember my father putting the awnings down and cutting the limbs of the avocado tree.


Category 5!
Quoting 619. bjrabbit:
I find it highly interesting that Dr Masters has ignored to news events that contradict GW that have come to light this week.

First, there was an article on how the Arctic had their shortest "summer" in terms of temps in years.

Next was the following article that I have linked to which references the fact that the sun has much more influence on our climate than CO2. (Sorry Communists) Link

Perhaps we can get a little more balanced coverage next week but I am not holding my breath.

Bert


Communists. Lol. That's a good one. Anyways, I've posted it before, I'll post it again. While it is true that above the 80th parallel temperatures have been below normal, Link, sea ice volume is still 2 standard deviations below the 1979-2012 mean Link about 4th lowest, and the extent is currently 4th lowest Link almost 2 standard deviations outside the 1981 - 2010 mean. That should tell us something big, despite the below normal temps, the arctic is still experiencing huge sea ice losses. Also, 1 year of variability does not make a serious argument against global warming at all, as 1 year regional variability has never been climate.

As for the sun, well that's called a natural forcing and it has been accounted for in the research into global warming. Link

Don't complain about a "balanced coverage" when there is simply no comparison between scientific research and a blog on the internet. If the folks at notrickszone had something real to say, I would happily read their published data...so far like most of the other blogs, there are no publications, only bad statistics and cherry picking.

Quoting 634. luvtogolf:


Not gonna happen and be prepared to get attacked.


No one "attacks" but when bad data and half truths are turned out, you are most definitely correct in assuming it will be rebutted with real science. Education and knowledge is key here, misinformation will just lead us down a path of absurdity. Cheers.
Quoting 650. LargoFl:
yeah we were getting 2-3 inches of rain an hour and real windy and lightning etc.


We got 2.10" just south of you in Madeira Beach yesterday. Quite a storm had to pump out the back patio.
Quoting MisterPerfect:
My first Hurricane experience that I can remember was David in 1979. I was young but I remember my father putting the awnings down and cutting the limbs of the avocado tree.



You were in Florida at the time?
Quoting 662. PensacolaDoug:
Here we go again.
I know, right? Dr. Masters posts a fact-based blog entry, and people feel the need to come along and accuse him of "ignoring" articles (on a website that's unavailable, to boot).
Quoting 657. Neapolitan:
"Balanced coverage"? You should know by now that there's science, and then there's not science; giving supporters of the latter equal audience with the former is as far from "balanced" as one can possibly get.
Neo you have to be about the most patient person I know of. Keep trying to teach and sooner or later it will sink in.
Quoting 657. Neapolitan:
"Balanced coverage"? You should know by now that there's science, and then there's not science; giving supporters of the latter equal audience with the former is as far from "balanced" as one can possibly get.


"The chief characteristic which distinguishes the scientific method from other methods of acquiring knowledge is that scientists seek to let reality speak for itself, supporting a theory when a theory's predictions are confirmed and challenging a theory when its predictions prove false. Although procedures vary from one field of inquiry to another, identifiable features distinguish scientific inquiry from other methods of obtaining knowledge. Scientific researchers propose hypotheses as explanations of phenomena, and design experimental studies to test these hypotheses via predictions which can be derived from them. These steps must be repeatable, to guard against mistake or confusion in any particular experimenter. Theories that encompass wider domains of inquiry may bind many independently derived hypotheses together in a coherent, supportive structure. Theories, in turn, may help form new hypotheses or place groups of hypotheses into context.
Scientific inquiry is generally intended to be as objective as possible in order to reduce biased interpretations of results. Another basic expectation is to document, archive and share all data and methodology so they are available for careful scrutiny by other scientists, giving them the opportunity to verify results by attempting to reproduce them. This practice, called full disclosure, also allows statistical measures of the reliability of these data to be established (when data is sampled or compared to chance)."

Quote from Wiki; there is my full disclosure(bold is mine, too)
Anyone else care to offer their first hurricane experience to curtail some of the other conversations we'd rather not see take over??
How about this, why don't our 'denialist' bloggers start a blog strictly limited to all the info and links they can come up with to refute the science supporting climate change. I for one would be sure to read it everyday as I think it's good to have a daily laugh.
Quoting 665. icmoore:


We got 2.10" just south of you in Madeira Beach yesterday. Quite a storm had to pump out the back patio.
yes it sure was a strong storm alright.
Quoting 651. Grothar:


Aw, come on, 1900, let them enjoy their bob while they can. :)


Spongeblob Sqaure Pants.
Quoting 671. NasBahMan:
How about this, why don't our 'denialist' bloggers start a blog strictly limited to all the info and links they can come up with to refute the science supporting climate change. I for one would be sure to read it everyday as I think it's good to have a daily laugh.


Just because you have a differing opinion doesn't mean you should be mocked and ridiculed.
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Anyone else care to offer their first hurricane experience to curtail some of the other conversations we'd rather not see take over??


My 1st hurricane experience I remember was Wilma. I was 10. That completely ruined Halloween for me lol. Anyways, when I woke up on October 24, 2005, winds were howling and whilsting, and things knocking against each other. Part of my ceiling collapsed due to water pressure, and my dad has sealed it back. On that same evening, my power cut off, and the storm didn't clear my area until later that night. The next morning, my dad went to go pick up uprooted limbs and small branches. My power didn't come on for 11 days after Wilma.
Quoting 658. FtMyersgal:


That wave that is visiting Ethiopia should hit the water about one week from now. I suspect this is the one to watch!

000
FXUS62 KILM 091446
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1046 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK TO LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM FRIDAY...A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING THE SC COAST
IS EVIDENT IN VAPOR ANIMATIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW PERIMETER
OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST NAM-12
H5-H7 VORTICITY PLOTS DEPICT THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT DOES NOT BRING
DOWNWARD MOTION OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK AND ELONGATED SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY STRETCHED ACROSS ERN NC AND CENTRAL SC WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT. 12Z RAOBS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
MIX-LAYERED CAPE RUNNING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE DECENT
SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY...SUSPECT SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL
APPROACH 3000 J/KG. STORM MOTION ROUGHLY AROUND 230@12 COULD LEAD TO
TRAINING OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TODAY...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUCH ABUNDANT AVAILABILITY OF COLUMN MOISTURE. IN ADDITION TO SEA
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON...A PIEDMONT WILL SHARPEN ACROSS OUR VERY
WESTERN ZONES AS WELL...ALLOWING FOR AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS MECHANISM
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY STILL LOOKS ON
TARGET WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

CONVECTION SHOULD FALL APART DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO 73-77...WARMEST ALONG THE SOUTH-
FACING BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES.

&&

West Pacific has a big time problem I believe. JTWC has always been conservative. Last night they had this shooting the gap and approaching Hong Kong on day 5 with 110 kt winds. Just from satellite 11W looks like its getting full ventilation in all quadrants. Hope they are prepared. They have shifted their track to the south considerably.



Click for loop

Quoting 648. Grothar:


That is what I heard. I have a sister who lives up near you and she called last night. I don't care for her much so I pay very little attention to what she says.


I have one just like that near Daytona--just goes on and on and on and......

Satch
Quoting 679. seer2012:


That wave that is visiting Ethiopia should hit the water about one week from now. I suspect this is the one to watch!


you know how many times that has been said this year ..
In times like these I think of storms like these..
I asked the question on Burt's blog. I'll repeat it here.
WHY is it so hot in China this summer compared with
a normal summer.

Quoting 669. seminolesfan:


"The chief characteristic which distinguishes the scientific method from other methods of acquiring knowledge is that scientists seek to let reality speak for itself, supporting a theory when a theory's predictions are confirmed and challenging a theory when its predictions prove false. Although procedures vary from one field of inquiry to another, identifiable features distinguish scientific inquiry from other methods of obtaining knowledge. Scientific researchers propose hypotheses as explanations of phenomena, and design experimental studies to test these hypotheses via predictions which can be derived from them. These steps must be repeatable, to guard against mistake or confusion in any particular experimenter. Theories that encompass wider domains of inquiry may bind many independently derived hypotheses together in a coherent, supportive structure. Theories, in turn, may help form new hypotheses or place groups of hypotheses into context.
Scientific inquiry is generally intended to be as objective as possible in order to reduce biased interpretations of results. Another basic expectation is to document, archive and share all data and methodology so they are available for careful scrutiny by other scientists, giving them the opportunity to verify results by attempting to reproduce them. This practice, called full disclosure, also allows statistical measures of the reliability of these data to be established (when data is sampled or compared to chance)."

Quote from Wiki; there is my full disclosure(bold is mine, too)



Seminolesfan, Good morning! You have mail. I think I sent you something about a week or so ago. (I may have used the wrong name though...)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 676. VAbeachhurricanes:


Just because you have a differing opinion doesn't mean you should be mocked and ridiculed.


VAbeachhurricanes:

Any arguments by GW deniers are only met with ridicule by those who are invested in GW.

I just apologize to all for sinking to their level with my Communist comment. I should know better.

I firmly believe that there are very, very few absolutes in nature...you even have scientists trying to prove that SOMETHING out there can exceed the speed of light.

Things happen usually when the status quo is challenged. When you have such a large group of people who are so invested and think, for whatever reason that they are so right on a subject, is usually a sign they are about to be proven wrong.

Pride goeth before the fall....

Bert


Quoting 681. ILwthrfan:
West Pacific has a big time problem I believe. JTWC has always been conservative. Last night they had this shooting the gap and approaching Hong Kong on day 5 with 110 kt winds. Just from satellite 11W looks like its getting full ventilation in all quadrants. Hope they are prepared. They have shifted their track to the south considerably.



Click for loop

This could already be a strong tropical storm at least. 
Quoting 558. SouthernIllinois:

Is the 12Z NAM on to something or just out to lunch. This is the run 27 hours out. Holy Smokes!! Big rains for Cypress!! :)

What say you, LAsurvivor??



As I said in my first ever post, I am very inexperienced at reading all the charts and graphs, but I like it when people put explanations about the NAM, GFS, etc., etc. If you wouldn't mind, SouthernIllinois, how about giving me your take on the image you posted and asked me about?
Scariest Halloween ever huh?
Quoting 678. mitchelace5:


My 1st hurricane experience I remember was Wilma. I was 10. That completely ruined Halloween for me lol. Anyways, when I woke up on October 24, 2005, winds were howling and whilsting, and things knocking against each other. Part of my ceiling collapsed due to water pressure, and my dad has sealed it back. On that same evening, my power cut off, and the storm didn't clear my area until later that night. The next morning, my dad went to go pick up uprooted limbs and small branches. My power didn't come on for 11 days after Wilma.

Quoting 622. VAbeachhurricanes:


your link is broken


Try this:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/08/09/major-dani sh-daily-newspaper-warns-globe-may-be-on-path-to-l ittle-ice-agemuch-colder-wintersdramatic-consequen ces/

Or

Link



Quoting 96. captainmark:
I was just nit picking about "nip picker" being spelled wrong, but can't remember if it is nit or knit.


It's nits as they are the larvae of lice.
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Scariest Halloween ever huh?



Lol. More like a bummer Halloween
Quoting 676. VAbeachhurricanes:


Just because you have a differing opinion doesn't mean you should be mocked and ridiculed.

So if I think "Beany and Cecil" is a documentary, I don't deserve to be mocked and ridiculed? Someone should actually rebut such an assertion in a serious manner? Really?

Denialists are at just about that level with their anti-science raving.
I am one who believes that us humans are probably affecting our earth and atmosphere to some degree. And since I am a sort of a conservationist, I welcome any measures our society employs to help minimize our impact to the earth.

However, I just don't get wrapped up in extreme climate change advocacy. For me, I find it hard to take every word and article seriously as I usually feel like certain issues are blown too big to make people alarmed. Yes, that is what I feel like a lot of this is, making some bigger than they are creating alarmism.

Also, agendas.

But, still I believe we should do all we can to reduce our impact to our earth.

I will not reply to any reply comments I get, as I am just stating my opinion and where I stand.
Quoting 694. bjrabbit:


Try this:

http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/08/09/major-dani sh-daily-newspaper-warns-globe-may-be-on-path-to-l ittle-ice-agemuch-colder-wintersdramatic-consequen ces/

Or

Link




So is this Danish newspaper peer-reviewed? LOL

You guys!
Quoting 507. AussieStorm:

Sorry I have been missing all day, not been well.

MrMixon
I don't know where you think Shanghai is but you are way off. You are close with Hong Kong though. Looks like a Shenhai peninsula Typhoon.


Sorry you haven't felt well - hope you're feeling better.

The cone has shifted south significantly since I posted my original comment - this is the problem with posting dynamic images. But I will admit, the spelling of Shanghai and Chenghai are awfully close... :)

As it stands, neither Chenghai nor Hong Kong are in the cone, and forecast intensity has dropped significantly.


NOTE - this is a dynamic image and may change after I post it! (I'll do a snapshot next time...)
Quoting 698. opal92nwf:
I am one who believes that us humans are probably affecting our earth and atmosphere to some degree. And since I am a sort of a conservationist, I welcome any measures our society employs to help minimize our impact to the earth.

However, I just don't get wrapped up in extreme climate change advocacy. For me, I find it hard to take every word and article seriously as I usually feel like certain issues are blown too big to make people alarmed. Yes, that is what I feel like a lot of this is, alarmism.

But, still I believe we should do all we can to reduce our impact to our earth.

I will not reply to any reply comments I get, as I am just stating my opinion and where I stand.

Of course, some things are actually alarming. For instance:
Quoting 699. Birthmark:

So is this Danish newspaper peer-reviewed? LOL

You guys!


You'd have to be pretty gullible to believe any thing from ClimateDepot.
171 hrs. watch BOC for development, hopefully it goes to Texas for obvious reasons.

hour 186, nothing really in GOM aanymore and CV storm WAY weaker than 6z/

Did you guys notice there was a new blog?
Quoting 705. 62901IL:

Did you guys notice there was a new blog?

Yes, but I saw no reason to continue the AGW denialthon on a new blog.
Quoting 697. Birthmark:

So if I think "Beany and Cecil" is a documentary, I don't deserve to be mocked and ridiculed? Someone should actually rebut such an assertion in a serious manner? Really?

Denialists are at just about that level with their anti-science raving.


"Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."

Thomas Jefferson
Quoting 657. Neapolitan:
"Balanced coverage"? You should know by now that there's science, and then there's not science; giving supporters of the latter equal audience with the former is as far from "balanced" as one can possibly get.


Notrickzone is about as far from real science as you can get.
Quoting 664. Naga5000:


Communists. Lol. That's a good one. Anyways, I've posted it before, I'll post it again. While it is true that above the 80th parallel temperatures have been below normal, Link, sea ice volume is still 2 standard deviations below the 1979-2012 mean Link about 4th lowest, and the extent is currently 4th lowest Link almost 2 standard deviations outside the 1981 - 2010 mean. That should tell us something big, despite the below normal temps, the arctic is still experiencing huge sea ice losses. Also, 1 year of variability does not make a serious argument against global warming at all, as 1 year regional variability has never been climate.

As for the sun, well that's called a natural forcing and it has been accounted for in the research into global warming. Link

Don't complain about a "balanced coverage" when there is simply no comparison between scientific research and a blog on the internet. If the folks at notrickszone had something real to say, I would happily read their published data...so far like most of the other blogs, there are no publications, only bad statistics and cherry picking.



No one "attacks" but when bad data and half truths are turned out, you are most definitely correct in assuming it will be rebutted with real science. Education and knowledge is key here, misinformation will just lead us down a path of absurdity. Cheers.



You, Birthmark, Neapolitan and some others have a lot more patience than I do with deniers than I do, I ignore anybody who regularly posts links to sites like watts, morano,etc. My thanks for pointing out their wrongness as you do.