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Ex-Dorian Attempting a Comeback off the Florida Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on August 02, 2013

After a long trek over the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Africa, the remains of Tropical Storm Dorian (now called Invest 91L) have finally arrived at the shores of North America. Ex-Dorian is nearly stationary, and is situated over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, just off the coast of Southeast Florida. Satellite loops and Melbourne, Florida radar images show that ex-Dorian has only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which are not well-organized. There does appear to be a surface circulation center trying to form just north of the storm's heaviest thunderstorms, about 70 miles east of Vero Beach, Florida. However, dry air to the northwest, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, is inhibiting development. WInd shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, but is expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Saturday morning. Ex-Dorian is expected to move slowly northwards and then north-northeastwards on Saturday. This motion will get ex-Dorian tangled up with a cold front that extends from Northern Florida northeastwards, just offshore from the Southeast U.S. coast. Before it merges with the front, ex-Dorian has some potential for regeneration into a tropical depression, and in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Dorian a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Sunday. Ex-Dorian will likely bring heavy rains to the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and these heavy rains may also clip the coast of Southeast Florida. However, the bulk of ex-Dorian's rains should stay offshore.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of ex-Dorian from the Miami radar.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1500. SFLWeatherman:

I think this will be ts soon
I can't help but call into question the models we will get later today if they go along and assume the LLC is under the convection still. We'll have to see how they initialize this puzzle.
Quoting 1483. scott39:
Dont fret Kori, I have a feeling even Walmart may have to close on the Gulf Coast this season.


That's part of why I was hoping I would get a chase. XD
Quoting 1506. mikatnight:


haha
Is this a joke?
68F
Quoting 1507. hurricanes2018:

good video!!
The MLC appears to be developing an outflow.
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?
And Dorian finally could regenerate.He is awesome and annoying at the same time.Can see the reaction of washi when she see him back.
1514. emguy
Quoting 1503. RascalNag:
I can't help but call into question the models we will get later today if they go along and assume the LLC is under the convection still. We'll have to see how they initialize this puzzle.


I have to completely agree. I have had the same line of thinking. Especially since this is a decouple, which the models are likely to hang onto the LLC.

First, that low level swirl need to get distance and get away from the picture. That is Dorian and it is not going to spin down anytime immediately. As a result, it is very highly unlikey that the mid level energey between the Bahamas and Florida establishes anything at the lower levels today. This will not "mix down today" in most liklihood.

That said, the mid level energy is kind of stuck where it is and not going anywhere fast (part of why this decoupled in the first place), so it will have time maybe tomorrow into Monday to get better defined...maybe earn that "e" name. It looks like there is a nest for potential favorable environments for development there, but it's gonna take time for the mean low level flow out of the southwest from the Dorian "parent" to clear out before this can happen.

One disclaimer for the 11AM...don't be surprised if the NHC tries to hang on to some "scientific" contunity/save face languagee in this advisory since they designated this one just hours ago. They may hang onto the coordinates close to where they first specified too. It is what it is...but don't get confused by it...Dorian is dead.
When I watch the WV loop, my (admittedly undereducated) eyes don't see xDorianBlob91LTD jumping on the train headed east. What influence with that high pressure have on our little annoyance today?
1516. emguy
Quoting 1512. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?


Likely not a threat to do that, but visit the National Weather Service website when you get there. If there is a threat of rip currents, they will issue an advisory on their webpage. If you are at a beach with lifeguards, they also will be able to tell you the risks. Have fun.
Quoting 1415. Camille33:
91 l is about to do a Wilma on us. There is a clear rapidly rotating llc bunched up along the north side of an expanding mass of deep and slanted upward convection. In this situation given the forward movement being under 10 kt...this will suggest that the llc can get bounced under the vertical acceleration of the updrafts and take off.
Right... Wilma... uh, nope.
Quoting 1515. DocMurphy:
When I watch the WV loop, my (admittedly undereducated) eyes don't see xDorianBlob91LTD jumping on the train headed east. What influence with that high pressure have on our little annoyance today?


Well, Dorian has already gotten on the train. You can see the LLC running away. The MLC is staying put though, and it it stays there for long it may form a new LLC which would be Erin. By then, it may have already missed the trough and could drift West.
Oh my goodness...dead gum CMC coming up with ANOTHER TX TROPICAL STORM. I saw the way it was moving...and its to TX. That CMC must realllllyyyy want this...that about 7 times ive seen this from THIS model.

1520. scott39
Quoting 1504. mikatnight:
Its really a marvel how many times MS. and Al. had a major hurricane, with such a small coastline.
very high wind shear IN the Western Atlantic!
Quoting 1517. Bluestorm5:
Right... Wilma... uh, nope.

going to be ts soon!!
Quoting 1521. hurricanes2018:
very high wind shear IN the Western Atlantic!


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2013 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 28:39:59 N Lon : 79:13:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1010.2mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.5 2.8

Center Temp : -9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -25.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
going up 2.0 now 2.2 !!
1524. GatorWX
I wonder how confident they really are. It has strong enough winds to support it, but look at its radar presentation. Horrible!

After struggling to redevelop during the past several days, Dorian has finally made a comeback. But not for long. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or so as northerly shear will keep it in check. Dorian should be absorbed by a frontal trough by early Monday morning.

Quoting 1520. scott39:
Its really a marvel how many times MS. and Al. had a major hurricane, with such a small coastline.


An example of when it's not good to be popular.
But if you are, then it's best to be prepared...

HURRICANE PROTOCOL



HURRICANE AWARENESS


Hurricane Preparedness - Wunderground

Tropical Cyclone Preparedness Guide - NHC (pdf)

Hurricane Preparedness 2013 - Palm Beach County

Storm 2013 - PB Post
Quoting 1523. Camille33:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2013 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 28:39:59 N Lon : 79:13:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1010.2mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.5 2.8

Center Temp : -9.9C Cloud Region Temp : -25.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
If its for Dorian it will be upgrade to ts.
Quoting 1512. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?
Quoting 1512. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Im driving out to Delaware today for some beach action, should I be concerned about an enhanced threat of rip currents from Dorian?
I believe Dorian is too small and too weak to affect you and produce rip currents.
Just few hours of sleep tonight... I got 7-3 shift today (ugh)
1530. emguy
Quoting 1524. GatorWX:
I wonder how confident they really are. It has strong enough winds to support it, but look at its radar presentation. Horrible!



On this radar representation...you can truely see the characteristics of the decouple. There is a mid level reflectivity affiliated with the mid level system, and the radar picks up on that rainfall...but just the same...activity is ALL moving SW to NE at the lower levels. The low level center is indeed gone from the picture as Dorian is that low level swirl we've been following now moving north of 30 degrees and the SW flow at the low levels on radar confirms it. Yeah, he's more than done.
Quoting 1530. emguy:


On this radar representation...you can truely see the characteristics of the decouple. There is a mid level reflectivity affiliated with the mid level system, and the radar picks up on that rainfall...but just the same...activity is ALL moving SW to NE at the lower levels. The low level center is indeed gone from the picture as Dorian is that low level swirl we've been following now moving north of 30 degrees and the SW flow at the low levels on radar confirms it. Yeah, he's more than done.

Link look low level move se and mid level not move at all!!!!!!!
I go away for a few hours and Frankenstein opps I mean Dorian is back from the dead.

But what' with the big circle?
Gotta go. Check back in later, and I'll have the GM pics posted at 9am sharp (1pm GMT)...

Good Morning All! Well he's back ,to a degree , like Camille33 , and others see it looks stalled not moving at all , and the NHCs track I don't think will verify ! Just my opinion .
What's up with the big red doughnut ?
Quoting 1520. scott39:
Its really a marvel how many times MS. and Al. had a major hurricane, with such a small coastline.


That used to be Florida, until they stole it from us.. all hail the Bonnie Blue!

Quoting 1532. AussieStorm:
I go away for a few hours and Frankenstein opps I mean Dorian is back from the dead.

But what' with the big circle?
Quoting 1532. AussieStorm:
I go away for a few hours and Frankenstein opps I mean Dorian is back from the dead.

But what' with the big circle?
The new td symbol.
1538. WxLogic
Good Morning... and morning Dorian.
1539. emguy
Quoting 1531. Camille33:

Link look low level move se and mid level not move at all!!!!!!!


I disagree...as radar is deceptive to read when differentiating mid level/low level/plus new thunderstorm activity...which can lead to optical illusion such as you just described, but I assure, there is no low level action going on here. Any assemblance of weak vorticity is at the mid levels. The mean low level flow is purely from the SW to NE.
1540. GatorWX
Seeds being planted early for inland storms.



Quoting 1536. indianrivguy:


That used to be Florida, until they stole it from us.. all hail the Bonnie Blue!



How's the lake doing? Haven't noticed a ton of rain lately along the Kissimmee. I don't how far it's watershed extends. We've had rain the last 4 days here in sw FL. Very dense humid airmass! 79 F and 83 F dewpoint. Waiting for that first visible shot of "Dorian". First ones are usually the most telling when there's convection in the way. It's hard to discern anything on radar.
1541. GatorWX

Finally! He's back! The red circle caught me off guard at first lol
Quoting allancalderini:
The new td symbol.


This isn't the TD symbol?
Quoting 1540. GatorWX:
Seeds being planted early for inland storms.





How's the lake doing? Haven't noticed a ton of rain lately along the Kissimmee. I don't how far it's watershed extends. We've had rain the last 4 days here in sw FL. Very dense humid airmass! 79 F and 83 F dewpoint. Waiting for that first visible shot of "Dorian". First ones are usually the most telling when there's convection in the way. It's hard to discern anything on radar.


BIG protest today at Phipps park over the polluted water discharges being dumped on the St. Lucie.. more than 2000 have signed up on Facebook.
Quoting 1543. AussieStorm:


This isn't the TD symbol?





The new and improved NHC?
1546. GatorWX


Interesting swirl headed north out of Dorian. I can't imagine this is a TC. It's been an interesting, persistent little thing though, I'll give it that. Waiting for the MJO. Things could seemingly get interesting quickly after watching the epac this week. Good morning and have a great day everyone. We'll see how long "Dorian" lasts.
I see the decoupling that several bloggers have mentioned. Will the mid level center follow TD Dorian or come ashore in Eastern FL? We had record amount of rainfall in Gainesville, FL in July. Much of the state is pretty water logged.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





The new and improved NHC?


It would of been nice to of been told they were changing the symbol. Have they changed the symbol for Hurricane also?
...
1550. GatorWX
Quoting 1544. indianrivguy:


BIG protest today at Phipps park over the polluted water discharges being dumped on the St. Lucie.. more than 2000 have signed up on Facebook.


That's good. We have a similar petition going around on fb for saving the tarpon in Boca Grande Pass from illegitimate fishing techniques namely the Boca Grande jigging method. The fishery, especially concerning Tarpon is vital to the local economy. The lake water has made fishing over here a bit tough nearshore. Caloosahatchee discharge has been strong and creating a lot of brackish water and dead sea grass. Good luck with the petition and protest.
Last few satellite frames make it seem like the MLC just hopped west a tad. Rotation also seems more vigorous. Radar does not seem to support this yet though.
Geez...go away already

Maybe the NHC changed the TD symbol on August 1 as they started to experiment 5-day TWOs.
1555. GatorWX
May have jumped the gun a bit.

Looks like his soul was ripped out.

1557. GatorWX
Doesn't it seem they're a little more conservative when the potential system isn't just offshore from Florida? :)
Quoting 1548. AussieStorm:


It would of been nice to of been told they were changing the symbol. Have they changed the symbol for Hurricane also?



I have no idea Aussie. I just took a guess is all.


I see the decouple. I wouldn't put it past the MLC to spin up another one tho if it hangs out long enough.
I don't know whether it's a new thing, a one-time thing, or maybe just something given to depressions that have formed from the remnants of previously-named storms, but the red circle seems like a great improvement over that clunky capital 'L'. The circle is more intuitive than the L, and it's certainly more helpful; after all, where exactly is the center of an L?

I hope they stick with it...
Tropical Depression? Throws me off.
If you zoom out and scroll the "wdtinc" interactive radar up the coast, you see a possible feeder band from the north, leading into something due east of Daytona Beach...

Not enough on there to be sure of anything, but I have indicated possible location in yellow...

29.0N, 79.6W

Sure enough, new convection there, but as strong as last night. Click on image for live loop...

1562. Pallis
Quoting 1550. GatorWX:


That's good. We have a similar petition going around on fb for saving the tarpon in Boca Grande Pass from illegitimate fishing techniques namely the Boca Grande jigging method. The fishery, especially concerning Tarpon is vital to the local economy. The lake water has made fishing over here a bit tough nearshore. Caloosahatchee discharge has been strong and creating a lot of brackish water and dead sea grass. Good luck with the petition and protest.
Why would anyone want to catch a tarpon? They are giant minnows known to save divers from sharks and I have never heard of anyone eating one. Yankees suck.
Quoting 1548. AussieStorm:


It would of been nice to of been told they were changing the symbol. Have they changed the symbol for Hurricane also?
No Gil when was a hurricane was the same.I prefer the old symbol of the td I don`t like the new one but that is just me.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I have no idea Aussie. I just took a guess is all.


I see the decouple. I wouldn't put it past the MLC to spin up another one tho if it hangs out long enough.


Yeah I no. Have you managed to dry out there Doug?

edit: I just asked NWS Miami via twitter if they could explain. Will let you know if they reply.
1565. snotly
Regardless of shear that's a bad place for a tropical system to sit, it never runs out of warm water.
Kind of looks like the MLC is moving south, though it may be an optical illusion caused by how convection is right now
1567. MahFL
I think the visible shows Dorian is not where the NHC says it is......
Not even close to drying out, Aussie.

No rain yesterday, for a change, but we did have shower pass thru this morning already. We are waterlogged.
1569. MahFL
This blog is the definition of "tropical depression" - when there are no hurricanes or blobs to track. This is a seasonal disorder and most bloggers experience syptoms from mid October through early July. Models of doom, destruction and death are usually the cure. Actual major hurricanes will set off great feelings of euphoria and delight that can only be compared to the feeling children get as they go to bed on Christmas Eve.
mmmm? looks like it decoupled, maybe a new center formimg,imo.
1572. MahFL
Quoting 1571. hurricanewatcher61:
mmmm? looks like it decoupled, maybe a new center formimg,imo.


I agree.
iiiiiiiiiit's GROUNDHOG day!

The Firework that never goes out..xDorian



I'm pretty sure I can see the shear splitting over the MLC and pulling from either side while leaving the center undisturbed. Isn't this a situation where ventilation can be enhanced?
looks like something going on east verobeach or little south of that,somethings going,wierd!
1577. Matt74
Quoting 1570. PanhandleChuck:
This blog is the definition of "tropical depression" - when there are no hurricanes or blobs to track. This is a seasonal disorder and most bloggers experience syptoms from mid October through early July. Models of doom, destruction and death are usually the cure. Actual major hurricanes will set off great feelings of euphoria and delight that can only be compared to the feeling children get as they go to bed on Christmas Eve.
HAHAHAHAHA! One of the funniest statements I've ever read on here. Good stuff! Truth too
First visible shows the naked swirl.

Water Vapor TD Dorian...

Quoting 1569. MahFL:

Is that the LLC I see due east of Jacksonville?!
EDIT: Yep, very strange.
seems like dorian is headed north wonder if he left alittle stink just offshore s.fl. for the future
Quoting 1559. Neapolitan:
I don't know whether it's a new thing, a one-time thing, or maybe just something given to depressions that have formed from the remnants of previously-named storms, but the red circle seems like a great improvement over that clunky capital 'L'. The circle is more intuitive than the L, and it's certainly more helpful; after all, where exactly is the center of an L?

I hope they stick with it...

It's kind of big though, like they are saying "we think there is something going on around here in this big circle".
1583. 10Speed
Once upon a time, long,long ago when Dorian was first born there was an initial "guess projection" track for Dorian that brought it basically on the track it's gone except that the initial projection brought it ashore around Miami or PB, then it swung up the west side of Lake Okeechobee and then veered northeast, out to sea. Overall, it came pretty close to that path-wise. Not bad actually, considering the actual time involved. Strength projection is an entirely different story.
Quoting 1556. cajunkid:
Looks like his soul was ripped out.



LOL! Yes, that was my first thought too, looked kinda creepy LOL
AL, 04, 2013080312, , BEST, 0, 301N, 788W, 30, 1013, TD
Depressions 3: 5-9

And when the Wise Men of Miami looked down from the heavens, they were amazed at the vision. The spinner had risen from the dead. They summoned the soothsayers and oracles to explain this mystery. Dorian! Dorian! Dorian has risen from the dead! And there was much rejoicing in the Land of Blog and the Wise Men of Miami feasted on crow.
About to board... Will check on this in about 3 hours.
Good morning. That big blob over Missouri and Arkansas looks more like a tropical cyclone than Dorian, lol.

Quoting 1588. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. That big blob over Missouri and Arkansas looks more like a tropical cyclone than Dorian, lol.

Dorian at this time reminds me of Bonnie.
Quoting 1562. Pallis:
Why would anyone want to catch a tarpon? They are giant minnows known to save divers from sharks and I have never heard of anyone eating one. Yankees suck.


We don't eat them. They are great fighting fish and fun to catch. Once landed, they are released. At least anyone I know has never kept one to eat.
are u serious? dorian again? looks like jose part 2 omg!
1592. ncstorm
so We have TD Dorian...crow for breakfast for a lot of folks..LOL
1593. will40
Quoting 1592. ncstorm:
so We have TD Dorian...crow for breakfast for a lot of folks..LOL


we tried to tell them lol
1594. guygee
The naked swirl is apparent on the IR2 loop, well to the north of the deep convection. Upper level winds shearing heavily on Dorian's rebirth.

From the NHC Discussion,
"An alternative scenario is that dorian could shear apart and
weaken sooner than forecast."
Quoting 1593. will40:


we tried to tell them lol


A lot of rain headed for the middle of the Atlantic ocean. What is the big deal?
1596. Nimitz
Link

Looks like no Atlantic storms for a few days....
1597. ncstorm
Quoting 1586. DocMurphy:
Depressions 3: 5-9

And when the Wise Men of Miami looked down from the heavens, they were amazed at the vision. The spinner had risen from the dead. They summoned the soothsayers and oracles to explain this mystery. Dorian! Dorian! Dorian has risen from the dead! And there was much rejoicing in the Land of Blog and the Wise Men of Miami feasted on crow.


ha ha..this is so great!! I wish I could plus it again!!
1598. will40
Quoting 1595. oceanspringsMS:


A lot of rain headed for the middle of the Atlantic ocean. What is the big deal?


did i say it was a bigg deal?
Quoting 1590. CitikatzSouthFL:


We don't eat them. They are great fighting fish and fun to catch. Once landed, they are released. At least anyone I know has never kept one to eat.


Tag and release only. Catching even a small one, 15-20 pounds, on light tackle or a fly rod, is about as good as it gets fishing wise.
Quoting bigwes6844:
are u serious? dorian again? looks like jose part 2 omg!

nah Karen part 29
Curious as to whether we can get a new LLC to form underneath the main convection, and if so, where would it likely head?
"BIG" circle?
Is it really moving N., and at what speed, or is it expanding wind field and still almost stationary?
1605. guygee
Quoting 1562. Pallis:
Why would anyone want to catch a tarpon? They are giant minnows known to save divers from sharks and I have never heard of anyone eating one. Yankees suck.
Leave the Greek and Italian immigrants out of your senseless civil war. They were in Europe while "Yankees" and "Rebels" were slaughtering each other.
Quoting 1597. ncstorm:


ha ha..this is so great!! I wish I could plus it again!!


Aw, shucks. Thanks.
1607. ncstorm
well guys, I will be back later..I'm so glad my balloon was hidden..this has been one interesting storm..06z GFS doesnt even have a depression on initalization..the models and the best of forecasters got one that will be studied and talked about for years..

The circle might be because they can't decide if it's a TS(????) or a TD.
1609. will40
Quoting 1608. pie314271:
The circle might be because they can't decide if it's a TS(????) or a TD.


naw just a new icon for the NHC
Quoting 1608. pie314271:
The circle might be because they can't decide if it's a TS(????) or a TD.

Maybe because they can't decide if it's a TW(?!?!) or a TD.
1611. ncstorm
one more thing before I leave..the 00z Euro showed this at hour 216--Africa..some potential might be setting up..

Monsoon moisture will increase over eastern Colorado today, bringing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the region. Abundant moisture and slow moving storms will result in a heightened risk of locally heavy rain today, with a flash flood watch in effect this afternoon and evening for areas in and around the burn scars in Teller and El Paso counties. Along with the possibility of heavy rain across all of eastern Colorado...strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon across the eastern plains and adjacent mountain areas. Persons in these areas should remain weather alert this afternoon and evening and be prepared to move to a safe location should the need arise. (Please visit http://weather.gov/pub for more information.

Dorian..... The little blob that could. You have to hand it to him, he has definitely been a fighter. Hopefully he's about ready for eternal rest now. Gonna be another hot & humid one here on the MS Gulf Coast. Hope everyone has a great day whereever you are!
Quoting 1613. gulfportbrees:
Dorian..... The little blob that could. You have to hand it to him, he has definitely been a fighter. Hopefully he's about ready for eternal rest now. Gonna be another hot & humid one here on the MS Gulf Coast. Hope everyone has a great day whereever you are!

Hmm... I have heard someone saying "Dorian, the little storm that couldn't..." Does he get crow?
Quoting 1594. guygee:
The naked swirl is apparent on the IR2 loop, well to the north of the deep convection. Upper level winds shearing heavily on Dorian's rebirth.

From the NHC Discussion,
"An alternative scenario is that dorian could shear apart and
weaken sooner than forecast."


It certainly looks like the llc has ejected NE leaving the convection behind. Wind shear has done it job again.
Quoting 1613. gulfportbrees:
Dorian..... The little blob that could. You have to hand it to him, he has definitely been a fighter. Hopefully he's about ready for eternal rest now. Gonna be another hot & humid one here on the MS Gulf Coast. Hope everyone has a great day whereever you are!
a lesson learned that systems are dynamic and there is no certainty in forecasts.
1619. hydrus
Quoting 1559. Neapolitan:
I don't know whether it's a new thing, a one-time thing, or maybe just something given to depressions that have formed from the remnants of previously-named storms, but the red circle seems like a great improvement over that clunky capital 'L'. The circle is more intuitive than the L, and it's certainly more helpful; after all, where exactly is the center of an L?

I hope they stick with it...
L is mad at you Nea. You said he was clunky, unhelpful, and non intuitive..Now he has to go to counseling.
Coconut Creek

Today

90 °F
Chance of T-storms
40% chance of precipitation
Tropical Depression Dorian <---


@NWSTallahassee
Humidity will make it feel hot with heat indices from 100-105F. Be careful out there and stay hydrated!
Quoting 1611. ncstorm:
one more thing before I leave..the 00z Euro showed this at hour 216--Africa..some potential might be setting up..



20N already!! Too Far NORTH! That's boring lol.
1623. hydrus
Quoting 1588. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. That big blob over Missouri and Arkansas looks more like a tropical cyclone than Dorian, lol.



Yes that's ridiculous.
Quoting 1619. hydrus:
L is mad at you Nea. You said he was clunky, unhelpful, and non intuitive..Now he has to go to counseling.


You can either learn to love the new circle, or you can go to L.
Quoting 1601. CaicosRetiredSailor:




Decoupled.
Good Morning!

7:15 am (11:15 GMT)

A sailboat anchored just south of the boat ramps sits on choppy waters of the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter steals one of the peanuts laid out for the squirrels in Bicentennial Park. He carefully breaks open the shell, removes the skin, then eats the peanut! He prefers dry roasted, unsalted.

Recorded a grand total of 0.18" of rain yesterday, not exactly a major event - though I saw Ft. Lauderdale and the inland areas got doused again.





Go HERE to see my rainfall log for the year.

PS - y'all quit making fun of Dorian, it's my stepson's name, yer gonna give 'im a complex!
First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as lower pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds but we have to see how the dry air does if it sticks around or not.
Quoting 1627. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

7:15 am (11:15 GMT)

A sailboat anchored just south of the boat ramps sits on choppy waters of the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter steals one of the peanuts laid out for the squirrels in Bicentennial Park. He carefully breaks open the shell, removes the skin, then eats the peanut! He prefers dry roasted, unsalted.

Recorded a grand total of 0.18" of rain yesterday, not exactly a major event - though I saw Ft. Lauderdale and the inland areas got doused again.





Go HERE to see my rainfall log for the year.

PS - y'all quit making fun of Dorian, it's my stepson's name, yer gonna give 'im a complex!
He is so cute.:D
Apparently I've woken up with a raging case of the smart alecks this morning. My apologies to all.
1631. hydrus
Quoting 1625. DocMurphy:


You can either learn to love the new circle, or you can go to L.
Lol..Away with me halo lookin circle as I embrace L ..:)..im old school dammitt..:)
1632. hydrus
Quoting 1630. DocMurphy:
Apparently I've woken up with a raging case of the smart alecks this morning. My apologies to all.
Its all good Murph..I am a hard workin individual that needs a laugh to heal sometimes..:)
1633. hydrus
Quoting 1624. CaribBoy:


Yes that's ridiculous.
That is heading in our direction, and there are more cookin..So we have to watch.
Quoting 1632. hydrus:
Its all good Murph..I am a hard workin individual that needs a laugh to heal sometimes..:)


I'm just trying to make it to Monday, Hydrus. An oil rig gets pretty old when you're approaching the end of a hitch. A little insanity can keep you sane from time to time. Glad we're getting out of this hitch without any storm evacs.
Oh my goodness...dead gum CMC coming up with ANOTHER TX TROPICAL STORM. I saw the way it was moving...and its to TX. That CMC must realllllyyyy want this...that about 7 times ive seen this from THIS model.
1637. VR46L
Quoting 1635. MisterPerfect:


Cough ,Sputter and Choke ...
1638. SLU
At least there's a storm to track.

all I got to say as I depart for Orlando shortly is...YAY FOR NAKED SWIRLS!, DIE, THUNDERSTORM DORIAN DIE...LOL...
1640. hydrus
Quoting 1634. DocMurphy:


I'm just trying to make it to Monday, Hydrus. An oil rig gets pretty old when you're approaching the end of a hitch. A little insanity can keep you sane from time to time. Glad we're getting out of this hitch without any storm evacs.
I hear ya. I worked an ocean going tug for a long time, 20 days on 10 off ( if we were lucky ) and good weather was always welcome. Those stints out at sea seemed a lot longer when it was rough.
Hmm... the hollow circle got smaller..
1643. hydrus
Does look like a tropical cyclone.

Quoting 1641. GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like daddy blob is coming down to meet up with Dorian.
Quoting 1634. DocMurphy:


I'm just trying to make it to Monday, Hydrus. An oil rig gets pretty old when you're approaching the end of a hitch. A little insanity can keep you sane from time to time. Glad we're getting out of this hitch without any storm evacs.


Did 6 evacs in the mid 70's when I worked as a roustabout and floorhand as a summer job for a drilling company that was then known as Loffland Bros., ended up becoming Nabors Drilling. Best part was getting put up in a hotel in Galveston, all expenses paid, for the duration of your hitch if you hit the timing right. Worse one was being the last group off, after getting the pipe out of the hole and tying everything off, at about 2:00 am in 40 MPH winds and driving rain. That was a long 45 minute copter ride.
It's about to swallow Little Rock

1647. Pallis
Quoting 1605. guygee:
Leave the Greek and Italian immigrants out of your senseless civil war. They were in Europe while "Yankees" and "Rebels" were slaughtering each other.
Actually both Greek and to a smaller extent Italian sailors played a role in shaping Florida's future prior to the War of Northern Aggression. They most certainly were involved, but anyone who came here later probably would not understand unless they were good at history. Yankee simply means someone born North of Bradenton, Florida.
1648. LargoFl
good morning folk..coffee is perked..enjoy, went out last night and bought a new computer..it has this windows 8 on it..grrrr...time to relearn everything..if you have windows 7..stay there lol..me I like windows 7 better.
Good morning. Taking my kid to a Planetarium show but just paying homage to the resurrection of Dorian. Lol.
Quoting 1648. LargoFl:
good morning folk..coffee is perked..enjoy, went out last night and bought a new computer..it has this windows 8 on it..grrrr...time to relearn everything..if you have windows 7..stay there lol..me I like windows 7 better.



I have Windows 8, wasn't sure about it at first, but I like it now. The desktop is exactly the same as Windows 7. The app features are actually pretty cool once you get to learn it. Good luck!
1651. LargoFl


Wow, Missouri and Arkansas on Blobcon 5, that's wild.
1653. LargoFl
Quoting 1650. tornadodude:



I have Windows 8, wasn't sure about it at first, but I like it now. The desktop is exactly the same as Windows 7. The app features are actually pretty cool once you get to learn it. Good luck!
thanks..it will give me something else to do lol..to me its very different..but with this new puter..the graphics are so much better
Quoting 1647. Pallis:
Actually both Greek and to a smaller extent Italian sailors played a role in shaping Florida's future prior to the War of Northern Aggression. They most certainly were involved, but anyone who came here later probably would not understand unless they were good at history. Yankee simply means someone born North of Bradenton, Florida.


"War of Northern Aggression." LOL Time to move on.
Quoting 1628. Tropicsweatherpr:
First hint of a pattern change in the basin over the next week. 500mb ridge moves north towards Europe as lower pressures move in over the MDR. Maybe a slight reprieve in the trade winds but we have to see how the dry air does if it sticks around or not.
What does that mean in terms of the steering pattern, more chance of recurves or less?
1656. flcanes
Quoting 1643. hydrus:
Does look like a tropical cyclone.


What? The blob?
GEOS east radar did not update in the last two hours so can't see convection trends...

From buoy observations that the center of circulation is well east of the fix I posted an hour ago, and north of the florida-georgia border. I doubt it will redevelop unless something opens up to allow the disturbance to cross Florida into the gulf.

Interestingly, the surface map shows a small low in the location of the "swirl" in addition to the TD Dorian just east of Freeport, Bahamas.

Surface Map Link
Quoting 1645. oceanspringsMS:


Did 6 evacs in the mid 70's when I worked as a roustabout and floorhand as a summer job for a drilling company that was then known as Loffland Bros., ended up becoming Nabors Drilling. Best part was getting put up in a hotel in Galveston, all expenses paid, for the duration of your hitch if you hit the timing right. Worse one was being the last group off, after getting the pipe out of the hole and tying everything off, at about 2:00 am in 40 MPH winds and driving rain. That was a long 45 minute copter ride.


I feel you on that. I got a week off paid for Isaac last year which was nice. But as the medic, I get concerned about my guys if they try to rig down in a hurry. Evac = cool. Medevac = not cool.
1659. hydrus
Quoting 1656. flcanes:

What? The blob?
The one over the Mid-West.

1660. LargoFl
Quoting 1659. hydrus:
The one over the Mid-West.

wow big storm cell there alright
1661. LargoFl
From Alert Weather Services (the service our company uses for rig weather forecasting)...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER-FORECASTER STACY STEWART. ALERT WEATHER SERVICES, INC. DOES NOT AGREE WITH NUMERICAL ADVISORY RE-ISSUANCE WITH AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN IS LOCATED IN A COL LOCATED BETWEEN A TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSHPERIC TROUGH) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOCATED AND CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS, WHICH WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR 20 KNOTS, 100NM TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BY SUNDAY MORNING.


I like that they call out Stewart by name. I sense a bit of rivalry beteween these organizations. Alert Weather tends to get a little terse with NHC from time to time.
1663. barbamz
Wow, good old Dorian. Couldn't believe my eyes earlier this morning - and hello to everyone from cooler western Germany. I hope you are starting into a nice weekend.


Ejection of the low level circulation to the north can be watched very well on RGB.


And here is the TPW (click to enlarge).
1664. GetReal


IMO it is possible that the MLL spin that Dorian is leaving behind may be a present to those looking for new near future development. The mid level flow may push this blob south, or SW.
Quoting 1658. DocMurphy:


I feel you on that. I got a week off paid for Isaac last year which was nice. But as the medic, I get concerned about my guys if they try to rig down in a hurry. Evac = cool. Medevac = not cool.


Things have definitely changed. Our "medic" was a white box that had First Aid printed on it. On my 1st day offshore, my safety orientation consisted of the tool pusher giving me a hard hat and safety glasses, then telling me to follow that guy and do what he tells you to do.
1666. pcola57
Quoting 1637. VR46L:


Cough ,Sputter and Choke ...


ikr
1668. GetReal
Quoting 1666. pcola57:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.
1669. RickWPB
Looking at the model page that 'Slu' posted, the BAMD model is always out to lunch.
Quoting hydrus:
The one over the Mid-West.



Land-o-cane
Quoting 1644. unknowncomic:
Looks like daddy blob is coming down to meet up with Dorian.


LOL
1672. hydrus
Quoting 1665. oceanspringsMS:


Things have definitely changed. Our "medic" was a white box that had First Aid printed on it. On my 1st day offshore, my safety orientation consisted of the tool pusher giving me a hard hat and safety glasses, then telling me to follow that guy and do what he tells you to do.
Yep. Same out on the tug. If you get hurt 750 miles off New York there is no Doc on board. Stitches without anesthesia and finger splints were common place. If there was a life threatening injury , Coast Guard to the rescue.
Quoting 1665. oceanspringsMS:


Things have definitely changed. Our "medic" was a white box that had First Aid printed on it. On my 1st day offshore, my safety orientation consisted of the tool pusher giving me a hard hat and safety glasses, then telling me to follow that guy and do what he tells you to do.


It's a kinder, gentler oilfield. I serve as the medic, rig secretary and resident weather-guesser. I've been lurking WU for over a year. There are a few pretty sharp prognosticators on this blog.
1674. hydrus
Quoting 1670. AussieStorm:


Land-o-cane
That is a nasty lookin system..The Mets are saying are saying that the pattern is ripe for more of these.
the landcane is quite impressive
Well that was a short lived Dorian again.....LOL....the Land Cane looks better.
Quoting 1676. TampaSpin:
Well that was a short lived Dorian again.....LOL....the Land Cane looks better.


you know better than to call Dorian dead...its like he reads this blog with shaking fists
Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most of you would already understand, but facts are facts.
We should have a landcane season too, and so far some of these landcanes are looking better than the tropical storms weve had so far ;)
I knew Dorian would come back. I just knew it! :)
1681. barbamz
Quoting 1670. AussieStorm:


Land-o-cane


The southeastern tip of the "land-cane". I wonder whether there had been any specific warnings up? Couldn't find any on SPC, but I'm not very familiar with this site.

Quoting 1668. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.


That may be what the cmc is picking up on and what accuweather is talking about this week.
You can clearly see the low heading north in an open swirl meeting up with the front. But, it is leaving behind the energy from Dorian and it seems to be seperate from the energy meeting the front. What will become of the energy sitting off Palm Beach County?
Quoting 1678. Bobbyweather:
Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most f you would already understand, but facts are facts.


landcanes get triangles instead of circles
No reason to continue advisories on a naked swirl.

Dorian is synonymous with struggle.
Quoting 1678. Bobbyweather:
Why does everyone call the Mid-west storm a landcane?
I kinda don't understand. Well, I would agree that Tropical Storm Erin of 2007 was a landcane, but this storm, which formed inland, not over water, is not any sort of tropical cyclone. I think most f you would already understand, but facts are facts.


A little "anal" this morning?
Quoting 1668. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.



Quoting 1664. GetReal:


IMO it is possible that the MLL spin that Dorian is leaving behind may be a present to those looking for new near future development. The mid level flow may push this blob south, or SW.



That is a weak Trough. Don't know about the mid moving in that direct but, the Dive of the Blob into the Gulf would sure be something to watch.
Quoting 1685. MiamiHurricanes09:
No reason to continue advisories on a naked swirl.

Dorian is synonymous with struggle.


a 12 day struggle at that
Look how dense is the sal outbreak in the Caribbean.

Island of Montserrat where Soufriere Volcano is.



St Barths where our friend CaribBoy is.

When I look at the Dvorak, I see xDorianBlob91LTD's spin running off to the northeast with all the convection cut off and being squashed to the south. Stupid question alert: Is this enough energy to be the early stages of future Erin?
1691. hydrus
Quoting 1664. GetReal:


IMO it is possible that the MLL spin that Dorian is leaving behind may be a present to those looking for new near future development. The mid level flow may push this blob south, or SW.
Its like the mid level spin keeps kicken out surface lows one after the other...Interesting.
Ok, so Dorian is a naked swirl on the way out N/NE and has out-raced the convection and left it behind. Any thoughts that this could form a NEW low level center? Is this moving at all or sitting stationary off shore in the warm Gulf Stream? Dorian continues to confound us all!!!
1693. hydrus
Quoting 1690. DocMurphy:
When I look at the Dvorak, I see xDorianBlob91LTD's spin running off to the northeast with all the convection cut off and being squashed to the south. Stupid question alert: Is this enough energy to be the early stages of future Erin?
Absolutely, and it would not be the first time something like that has happened.
Quoting 1668. GetReal:


It'll be interesting to watch and see whether that Arkansas/Missouri blob continues to dive SE towards the E GOM.
Could combine with the MLC of Dorian and become an entity in the GOM.
Quoting 1681. barbamz:


The southeastern tip of the "land-cane". I wonder whether there had been any specific warnings up? Couldn't find any on SPC, but I'm not very familiar with this site.



Wonder if this is moving fast enough to affect the MS coast?
One can only wonder where Dorian would have gone if it would have remained a Tropical Storm from the time it opened up into a Tropical Wave to regenerating into a Tropical Depression.

1697. ncstorm
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL
Quoting 1690. DocMurphy:
When I look at the Dvorak, I see xDorianBlob91LTD's spin running off to the northeast with all the convection cut off and being squashed to the south. Stupid question alert: Is this enough energy to be the early stages of future Erin?


sure..but not likely
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


funny how the people that said: "Dorian is dead, see you in two weeks" might still be looking at Dorian when they get back LOL
1700. barbamz


Cloud top temps. In Europe the big blob would have been named (as all highs and lows get names) and we could speculate what will happen when XYZ and Dorian have their first date :)
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Dorian, has to be a record for the longest aggravation in tropical history!

LLC fix @ about 32.4n,78.9w, drifting northwards. MLC still south @ about 27.8w,79.6n, stationary. That sound about right? D

Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL
LOL

Quoting 1700. barbamz:


Cloud top temps. In Europe the big blob would have been named (as all highs and lows get names) and we could speculate what will happen when XYZ and Dorian have their first date :)


They would produce an offspring called ZoriYan
1704. ackee
Looking ahead base on the fact that wind shear and dust have cause the MDR to become hostile for development so far looking ahead in Aug and September what type of activity do u guys see for the reminder of the seasons ?


A ACTIVE
B average
c below average
D well below average
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


???
Quoting 1704. ackee:
Looking ahead base on the fact that wind shear and dust have cause the MDR to become hostile for development so far looking ahead in Aug and September what type of activity do u guys see for the reminder of the seasons ?


A ACTIVE
B average
c below average
D well below average


Active to Over-Active
Looks like the rainfield is expanding in our direction. Ft. Lauderdale got another rain shower, I'm sure they're lovin' it. Waterspout signature?

Quoting 1700. barbamz:


Cloud top temps. In Europe the big blob would have been named (as all highs and lows get names) and we could speculate what will happen when XYZ and Dorian have their first date :)


I often wonder about the Probability of Precipitation convention. Sometimes it takes away from the sharpness of the forecast; often amusingly. Here's the NWS forecast for in effect for Mountain Home AR:

"Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible".

The WU forecast is not much better.

They've picked up > 2 inches since thunderstorms from the inland MCS started.
1709. barbamz
Ahh, TRMM passed over Dorian yesterday:


This pic is looking south towards Cuba.

Saturday August 3, 2013
Tropical Depression Dorian is Revived
Tropical depression Dorian, now located in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida, began it's life a tropical wave moving off the African coast during the third week of July 2013. Dorian, in it's first incarnation, was upgraded to a tropical storm on July 24, 2013. Dorian dissipated to a tropical wave on July 27, 2013 but the remnants endured. This morning at 0900UTC (5 AM EDT) the National Hurricane Center upgraded the remnants of tropical storm Dorian to tropical depression Dorian.

The TRMM satellite passed above the forming tropical depression on August 2, 2013 2259 UTC (6:59 PM EDT) providing data for the image on the left above. TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument found powerful thunderstorms over Florida west of of Dorain center of circulation dropping rain at the rate of over 60.8 mm/hr (~2.4 inches) per hour. Some intense thunderstorms over Florida were found by TRMM to reach heights of over 16.5km (10.3 miles). The image on the right uses TRMM PR data to show a 3-D view of the vertical structure within thunderstorms in tropical depression Dorian.




Edit: Check out the links to the 3D-animations on the bottom of this site!
Quoting 1648. LargoFl:
good morning folk..coffee is perked..enjoy, went out last night and bought a new computer..it has this windows 8 on it..grrrr...time to relearn everything..if you have windows 7..stay there lol..me I like windows 7 better.

I've run windows 8 with both a touchscreen and without. I definitely prefer the touchscreen. Like anything though you'll eventually get used to it. I did like windows 7 and have no idea why they got rid of it so quickly especially after they kept that disastrous Vista around for so long. Good luck with your new puter!
Nice cloudy rainy day down here in Lauderdale. Seems like this is the blow off from Trop depression Dorian. I hope the clouds hang around and the rain goes away. Last thing we need is anymore rain.
Quoting 1710. 954FtLCane:

I've run windows 8 with both a touchscreen and without. I definitely prefer the touchscreen. Like anything though you'll eventually get used to it. I did like windows 7 and have no idea why they got rid of it so quickly especially after they kept that disastrous Vista around for so long. Good luck with your new puter!
Nice cloudy rainy day down here in Lauderdale. Seems like this is the blow off from Trop depression Dorian. I hope the clouds hang around and the rain goes away. Last thing we need is anymore rain.


I foresee a cloudy, wet day
So do land-o- canes produce the dreaded shark-nados
Not going to be a fun day at work!
1717. tkeith
Quoting fredric1979:
So do land-o- canes produce the dreaded shark-nados
no...catfishnados
1718. ncstorm
Quoting 1713. moonlightcowboy:


that blob is incredible..I remember posting earlier this week and i think it was the CMC that saw several lows tracking across to the east coast..I remarked about how many lows was sitting there in the middle of the US..I dont understand how the models see an occurence and then drop it?

1719. beell
At least no one can accuse the NHC of padding the storm count numbers.

A Landocane could only produce a sharknado if it passed over the New York area where it might encounter the dreaded landshark. Of course the landshark has not been seen since a 1970's episode of SNL. I would set the probability of sharknado at near zero.
Quoting 1717. tkeith:
no...catfishnados


Trailerechos
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


There once was a storm named Dorian
That traveled across the Atlantic O-ce-an,
After dying a bit
And giving forecasters fits
He reformed next to Florida to rub it in!

Quoting 1704. ackee:
Looking ahead base on the fact that wind shear and dust have cause the MDR to become hostile for development so far looking ahead in Aug and September what type of activity do u guys see for the reminder of the seasons ?


A ACTIVE
B average
c below average
D well below average
A or my self-created E: Hyperactive
Quoting 1720. DocMurphy:
A Landocane could only produce a sharknado if it passed over the New York area where it might encounter the dreaded landshark. Of course the landshark has not been seen since a 1970's episode of SNL. I would set the probability of sharknado at near zero.


"...Candygram..."
Quoting 1714. fredric1979:
So do land-o- canes produce the dreaded shark-nados


only if there are landsharks in the area
Quoting 1724. mikatnight:


"...Candygram..."


Our age is definitely now fully on display.
1728. hydrus
Largo: If your new puter came with windows 8 pro, you can downgrade it to win 7.
1730. Grothar
Please, people. If you are going to talk about these things call them by their proper name. This is a Blobocane :)

Quoting 1717. tkeith:
no...catfishnados

Thanks for clearing that up
Quoting 1730. Grothar:
Please, people. If you are going to talk about these things call them by their proper name. This is a Blobocane :)



I think we avoided anything "blob" to escape paying you licensing fees.
1733. ncstorm
I believe the CMC is showing Dorian regenerating again..extratropical, I'm not sure..



1734. hydrus
1736. barbamz
Where the African wave train starts ...

Sudan: Heavy Rains in Sudan Causes Flash Floods, Damages
2 August 2013

Khartoum — Sudan's General Directorate of Civil Defense (GDCD), has announced that floods resulting from heavy rains, which continued for two days in a row, led to serious damages in several states.

The director of GDCD Hashim Hussein Abdel-Mageed, said in statements to the official news agency (SUNA) that the floods had cut off the road linking Atbara to Abu Hamad in the River Nile state as well as the highway in locality of Durdaib in Red Sea state, adding that the Ministry of roads and bridges is exerting huge efforts to repair the damage.

Abdel-Mageed added that flash floods have also overrun Al-Gaulid locality in the Northern state, Al-Rusairs in the Blue Nile state and North Kordofan state causing some damages, pointing out that the most affected areas in Khartoum state are the east Nile locality and Khartoum north locality.

He stressed that The Supreme Council of Civil Defense (SCCD) is working closely with the Ministry of Roads and Bridges and disclosed that several teams were deployed to the affected areas to provide aid and shelter, pointing to the efforts of the civil society organizations as well.

The director of Sudan's General Authority for Meteorology (GAM), Abdalla Khiyar, said that large parts of the country including Khartoum state will likely witness more rainfall and thunder storms within the next 24 hours. ...





Sudan
1737. beell
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL


Yeah, I wrote Dorian off. And continue to do so this morning. I doubt this disturbance will ruin anyone's day. No symptoms of deep-cutting pain noted here.

It met the requirements of a depression for about 20 minutes. Good enough.
1738. Grothar
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





1739. hydrus
This is interesting. The GFS has a system in the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours but it dissipates. Then later has a system crossing the entire basin into the gulf where it strengthens.

1740. tkeith
Quoting Progster:


Trailerechos
these are prolific in Arkansas :)

AKA "doublewide blues"...
Quoting 1730. Grothar:
Please, people. If you are going to talk about these things call them by their proper name. This is a Blobocane :)

This blog is now a blob.
1742. ncstorm
Quoting 1737. beell:


Yeah, I wrote Dorian off. And continue to do so this morning. I doubt this disturbance will ruin anyone's day. No symptoms of deep-cutting pain noted here.

It met the requirements of a depression for about 20 minutes. Good enough.


it wasnt about ruining anyone's day :)..it was about the formation of a storm that most didnt give a chance..tropical systems are so unpredictable, just makes you wonder what this season will have in store..
xDorianBlob91LTD's swirl has gone off to the NE all nekkid and stuff. What intrigues me is the MLC near the "top" of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 82 degrees already with a high of 97 expected, no rain in sight. :(

So Undead Dorian with a heartbeat decided he was coming back. This little 'engine that could' has really fought a good fight, and now back to a TD. You have to honor a good fighter, as long as he doesn't do any damage to anyone.

Breakfast's on the sideboard, don't know if CW has been in or not: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, shrimp and spinach omelet, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce,whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, creamy oatmeal with blueberries,cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
1745. hydrus
Quoting 1738. Grothar:
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





I think a weird pattern that we are in is going to get downright strange over the next two weeks, and plenty of busy Mets scratching their heads...Morning Gro.
Quoting 1738. Grothar:
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





Attention blobers.
Quoting 1697. ncstorm:
the longer TD Dorian continues to exist, the pain cuts deeper for those who kept writing Dorian off..of course its a naked swirl to most..you want the nightmare to be over..LOL
Yes a T.D that's moving away from land.Ooooow scary watch out! I have to get the supplies and start evacuating right now!.Yikes!Dorian is surely on his way to cat 10 status...
1748. hydrus
Quoting 1738. Grothar:
So, we now have TD Dorian from the 5 AM. I am shocked!

I would hope all the bloggers (and there are many) who saw this are not gloating. That is a terrible habit. (gloat gloat)

Does anyone think the swirl will move to the NE and leave some energy behind???





I may have to eat half a crow...Dunno yet..:)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013

STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW
CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS
ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN
THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 1728. hydrus:
Oh no another blob.Lets prepare to listen the whole day the same old story.Blobbers keep watching and forget you Saturday.

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURED NEAR THE
CENTER OF GIL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE STRUCTURE IS STILL
BEING DISTRUPTED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE TO ABOUT 50 KT...AND GIVEN
THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT AT THAT VALUE. ALL OF
THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GIL
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY DUE TO
DECREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO
POSSIBILITIES AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLOENN TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL
WEAKENS AND IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS CENTERED AROUND THE PAST COUPLE NHC FORECASTS.
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.0N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.0N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.8N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.2N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.0N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
1752. ncstorm
Quoting 1747. washingtonian115:
Yes a T.D that's moving away from land.Ooooow scary watch out! I have to get the supplies and start evacuating right now!.Yikes!Dorian is surely on his way to cat 10 status...


LOL Wash..Barbecue or stewed crow? I have a special plate ready for you..LOL..
1753. Grothar
Quoting 1748. hydrus:
I may have to eat half a crow...Dunno yet..:)


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.
Quoting 1739. hydrus:
This is interesting. The GFS has a system in the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours but it dissipates. Then later has a system crossing the entire basin into the gulf where it strengthens.


The top image looks erroneous, look at all the sub 1000mb lows over the US and the fact that the "TC" in the Caribbean has no wind with it. The bottom image looks fine, however.
1755. ncstorm
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.


didnt fool me Gro..:) I never discounted Dorian..
1756. icmoore
Quoting 1720. DocMurphy:
A Landocane could only produce a sharknado if it passed over the New York area where it might encounter the dreaded landshark. Of course the landshark has not been seen since a 1970's episode of SNL. I would set the probability of sharknado at near zero.


Knock, knock. Who's there? Landshark!! Thank you that was what I was thinking , too :)
Goodnight all. Stay safe from the Blob-o-cane.
Watch out for Frankenstein Dorian also.
Stay well, Stay safe.
Quoting 1752. ncstorm:


LOL Wash..Barbecue or stewed crow? I have a special plate ready for you..LOL..
Lol.I just have to sit back and laugh at the people right now that think they've won some sort of reward.I'm not eating crow because it's just a T.D 5 miles up from a tropical disturbance that's getting highly sheared now :).Some of you all act like this is going to come back with a revenge and turn into the next sci-fy movie disaster film.
Blob-ocane to meet Dorian

1760. hydrus
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.
I agree. And I am not displeased with my forecast, and there is still a considerable amount of energy being left behind by the re-designated system.
Quoting 1743. DocMurphy:
xDorianBlob91LTD's swirl has gone off to the NE all nekkid and stuff. What intrigues me is the MLC near the "top" of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection.


so now we have XDorianLLCNorth and XDorianMLCSouth to track?
1762. hydrus
Quoting 1758. washingtonian115:
Lol.I just have to sit back and laugh at the people right now that think they've won some sort of reward.I'm not eating crow because it's just a T.D 5 miles up from a tropical disturbance that's getting highly sheared now :).Some of you all act like this is going to come back with a revenge and turn into the next sci-fy movie disaster film.
Disney is looking into it..:)
1763. hydrus
Quoting 1757. AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Stay safe from the Blob-o-cane.
Watch out for Frankenstein Dorian also.
Stay well, Stay safe.
G,nite Aussie.
Quoting 1757. AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Stay safe from the Blob-o-cane.
Watch out for Frankenstein Dorian also.
Stay well, Stay safe.


CMC has a huge MCS on the tail of today's for tomorrow:

1765. barbamz
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.


Little crow is singing happily ...

... that it will survive Dorian:


BBL later. I'm curious what our Doc says in his next entry.


Quoting 1761. mynameispaul:


so now we have XDorianLLCNorth and XDorianMLCSouth to track?


It's a daunting responsibility we bear.
1768. ncstorm
Quoting 1758. washingtonian115:
Lol.I just have to sit back and laugh at the people right now that think they've won some sort of reward.I'm not eating crow because it's just a T.D 5 miles up from a tropical disturbance that's getting highly sheared now :).Some of you all act like this is going to come back with a revenge and turn into the next sci-fy movie disaster film.


come on, no one is saying this will destroy cities..LOL..most said it wouldnt regenerate..thats the point..I believe I will take my leave..If this hadnt regenerated, all the "I told you so" would be on here this morning..I dont want to rub salt in the wounds anymore and get yelled at on the blog..I'll be back later..remember guys..taking your crow is part of WU tradition..no excuses..

I will let my balloon exit with Dorian..(if he is heading NE)





90E has been upgraded to TD 8-E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS
CONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION
IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE
LOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE
SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY
ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1770. Grothar
Quoting 1732. DocMurphy:


I think we avoided anything "blob" to escape paying you licensing fees.


My services are free.
Quoting 1762. hydrus:
Disney is looking into it..:)
I said a few days "IF" Dorian ever does come back it will be a highly sheared weak system.So I'm not eating crow.

If Disney get's a hold of it that'll be a lot of censoring they have to do or else we'll have mad parents coming from all over the U.S to D.C to march.lol.
1772. hydrus
Quoting 1764. Progster:


CMC has a huge MCS on the tail of today's for tomorrow:

1774. Grothar
Quoting 1755. ncstorm:


didnt fool me Gro..:) I never discounted Dorian..


I know we were the hangers on through this whole week.
1775. 47n91w
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Look how dense is the sal outbreak in the Caribbean.

Island of Montserrat where Soufriere Volcano is.



St Barths where our friend CaribBoy is.



So apparently the barometric pressure sensor on the webcam facing Soufriere Volcano isn't calibrated or properly corrected to sea-level. 1083.5 mb is just shy of the highest pressure ever recorded on Earth in Siberia on 12/31/1968 at 1083.8 mb.

1776. hydrus
Quoting 1771. washingtonian115:
I said a few days "IF" Dorian ever does come back it will be a highly sheared weak system.So I'm not eating crow.

If Disney get's a hold of it that'll be a lot of censoring they have to do or else we'll have mad parents coming from all over the U.S to D.C to march.lol.
Do even worry about it. We are here to learn. If I eat crow, it lessens the chance of me chowing on blackbird later..Thats how I think anyway.
Quoting 1753. Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.


Are there any models for this prairiecane? Which way is it goin?
So, which is it, anyways ? Ex-tropical storm DORIAN, or 91 ? Why am I seeing two storms ?
Failure to acknowledge the potential of a blob is tantamount to disrespecting the Rabbit of Caerbannog. It may appear harmless....
1780. Patrap
1781. Patrap
Quoting 1778. SNOWARMER:
So, which is it, anyways ? Ex-tropical storm DORIAN, or 91 ? Why am I seeing two storms ?


Tropical Depression Dorian..
Where y'at, Pat. Good morning.
Tropical Depression Dorian is the naked swirl..

click pic for loop
1786. Patrap
Morn',, Hot tea, not down yet,

Grumbles'
1787. Thrawst
/
1788. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


I think everyone should have dispensation on this one. It fooled all the models and all the experts. We should save all the crow for the next one.

Morning, Gro. I don't think I did too bad on 91l/Dorian in terms of its later life but I agree, this is just what too weird of a storm to hold anyone's feet to the fire over.
Quoting 1670. AussieStorm:


Land-o-cane


Why not call it a Terracane?
Terra means land so it would be fitting and it roles off the tongue nice.
1790. sar2401
Quoting DocMurphy:
Failure to acknowledge the potential of a blob is tantamount to disrespecting the Rabbit of Caerbannog. It may appear harmless....

"A rabbit....a silly rabbit....Arrrggh....:-)


That outbreak is starting to decline. The east of 50W the SAL is sporadic and thinning out. This process should continue throught next week and by mid-late week most of SAL will diminish. Places to what for genesis in the next week is the Gulf/Western Caribbean and the MDR.
Quoting 1785. Skyepony:
Tropical Depression Dorian is the naked swirl..

click pic for loop


So, what are you thinking about that MLC near the northern tip of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection?
Dvorak is availablee for Dorian again.. In six hrs the pressure went from 1011.3mb to 1004mb. The scene keeps going between curved band & shear..

Quoting 1739. hydrus:
This is interesting. The GFS has a system in the Eastern Caribbean in 84 hours but it dissipates. Then later has a system crossing the entire basin into the gulf where it strengthens.



That is the GEM (CMC). Think also that is a glitch, not showing up from other sites:


...em...probably a bad idea. Mornin'
1796. Patrap
1797. 7544
morning all i know dorian swirl is movin nne but is tha big blob close to the coast digging ssw . looks like it building around the south side ?
Dorian left his luggage on the plane heading west.
Quoting 1792. DocMurphy:


So, what are you thinking about that MLC near the northern tip of xDorianBlob91LTD's former convection?


Chance that is going to rain on the afternoon pool party..

It could hang back & play on the tail of the front. Dorian is really drawing at it the last few frames too..
TD Dorian is a joke at the moment with the COC well NNE of the thunderstorm complex it will continue to head NE as it get scoop up by the trough. However the MLC and convection is still stuck between and Melbourne, FL and the NW Bahamas. Its not unlikely for the LLC to move out to sea and shed its moisture field behind and it drifts over Florida and dump some rain before dissipating. We shall see. Personally the NHC should have never classified it but they are the experts. What do a WU blogger like me know :)
1801. hydrus
Quoting 1771. washingtonian115:
I said a few days "IF" Dorian ever does come back it will be a highly sheared weak system.So I'm not eating crow.

If Disney get's a hold of it that'll be a lot of censoring they have to do or else we'll have mad parents coming from all over the U.S to D.C to march.lol.
It would put a lot more material within there reach..

1802. llpj04
:)

It's starting to rumble in Port Saint Lucie now. Very little rain though.
1804. hydrus
Quoting 1794. nrtiwlnvragn:


That is the GEM (CMC). Think also that is a glitch, not showing up from other sites:


It was CMC. I am tired, not much sleep.
2 hour animated loop. Headed East-Northeast!

they already have fantasy football and baseball. we should form a fantasy hurricane league. sort of like an office pool that starts at the beginning of the season. pick 5 names on the list and there's your starting rotation. points allocated for wind speed, rainfall measures and length of life.
Atlantic slowly getting moister expect for the Central where SAL is. The monsoonal trough over SA is trying to push north moistening up the Caribbean a little but SAL is present over the Eastern Carib. may not last too long.



Good Morning Class. Something still hanging around?
You even take its circulations away and it still lives......somebody get me a silver bullet!
1811. Grothar
Quoting 1777. redwagon:


Are there any models for this prairiecane? Which way is it goin?


By the looks of it, it should die out pretty soon.
1812. Grothar
Quoting 1808. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning Class. Something still hanging around?


Yep, it's cheeching and chonging its way.
1813. Patrap
Very cool. 2,000 yr old cyprus forest found in over 60 feet of water off the coast of Alabama - apparently uncovered by Katrina.

we have a new tropical D
Quoting 1804. hydrus:
It was CMC. I am tired, not much sleep.


00Z GEM does bring a system from the islands at 132 hours:



Link

To the GOM at 240 hours:



Link
1817. wxmod
This is the MODIS satellite photo of the exact North Pole today. 1 pixel equals 1 KM.

1818. Patrap
WFO Southern

Quoting 1806. MisterPerfect:
they already have fantasy football and baseball. we should form a fantasy hurricane league. sort of like an office pool that starts at the beginning of the season. pick 5 names on the list and there's your starting rotation. points allocated for wind speed, rainfall measures and length of life.


Love, love, love this idea. +1,000! Since it is your idea, you are in charge for next season! LOL
Quoting 1812. Grothar:


Yep, it's cheeching and chonging its way.


LOL!
ITS THIS NEW!! what up with the O
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1823. Patrap
Quoting 1814. moonlightcowboy:
Very cool. 2,000 yr old cyprus forest found in over 60 feet of water off the coast of Alabama - apparently uncovered by Katrina.



When I met Ivor Van Heerden in Nov 2009 here MLC, he said during his 17th Canal Levee investigation, that the Piles for the I-walls were drivrn down to the 24 ft Level under the surface, right on top of a Peat cypress bog that was laid down by a storm likely larger than K, 450 years ago approx.

So in theory, the piles slipped from the surface pressures fro the surge, due to the piles being exactly where the slip zone was.



Nuclear Event in USA on Saturday, 03 August, 2013 at 15:28 (03:28 PM) UTC.
Description
A carbon dioxide leak prompted an Alabama nuclear plant to declare an alert, though federal authorities say the issue does not threaten the public. Southern Co. spokesman Ike Pigott said a carbon dioxide release was detected in an auxiliary building of the Unit 1 reactor at Plant Farley around 5:20 a.m. Saturday. An initial investigation suggests that the gas came from a fire suppression system, though no fires were detected. Pigott said the volume of gas was equivalent to what might be released from a large fire extinguisher. Both reactors continued operating normally. No other equipment failures were reported. No radiation was released. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman Roger Hannah said federal inspectors were monitoring the incident, but they do not believe it poses any threat to the public.

The Dothan/Houston County Emergency Management Agency, the Alabama Emergency Management Agency were advised that an incident classified as an “ALERT” has been declared at the Joseph M. Farley Nuclear Power Plant. An alert is the second least serious of four nuclear plant emergency classifications assigned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This means that certain events could degrade or have degraded the level of safety at the power facility. There has been no radiation release so NO protective actions are required at this time for the public’s health and safety. Houston County officials and Alabama Emergency Management Agency will keep the public informed of any changes or developments in the situation at Plant Farley. Protective actions will be recommended if they become necessary.

Quoting 1806. MisterPerfect:
they already have fantasy football and baseball. we should form a fantasy hurricane league. sort of like an office pool that starts at the beginning of the season. pick 5 names on the list and there's your starting rotation. points allocated for wind speed, rainfall measures and length of life.

I keep trying to to talk them into allowing donate buttons or something so we could atleast wager freely amongst ourselves. They don't really seem amused or excited about the idea..
Quoting 1819. CitikatzSouthFL:


Love, love, love this idea. +1,000! Since it is your idea, you are in charge for next season! LOL


Deal!
August 3, 2013 8:04 AM

Unprecedented July Cold – Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record

http://iceagenow.info/2013/08/unprecedented-july- cold-arctic-sees-shortest-summer-record/

“Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that,” says Steven Goddard website.

Graph courtesy of COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
Thanks to F. Guimaraes for this link

“The Arctic ice extent is showing a remarkable recovery from the great oscillations of 2012,” says Guimaraes. “Compare with the previous years listed there, you’ll see that 2004 is the year that is closest to 2013 in terms of average temps during the summer.”

Like I say all weather is cyclical, again I'm going to stand by my old TV weather guy! he said you know Mother nature always evens things out.
Last year, Extreme heat no rain!
This year, cool temps and plenty of rain!
Sounds like evening things out to me!
The thing that worries me about Global warming folks is Government taking over control of our lives all in the name of Climate Change!
Besides that, I don't subscribe to any of it.
Weather changes, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, decades, and centuries, always has, always will!!!!!!
Quoting 1748. hydrus:
I may have to eat half a crow...Dunno yet..:)


Well, if you do, hydrus, I'll cook it special so you think you're eating a steak!
1828. hydrus
Quoting 1827. aislinnpaps:


Well, if you do, hydrus, I'll cook it special so you think you're eating a steak!
Thank you..:)