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Flossie Causes Little Trouble for Hawaii; Dorian's Remnants Falling Apart

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on July 30, 2013

A weakening Tropical Depression Flossie passed through the Hawaiian islands on Monday evening and Tuesday morning with little fanfare, bringing scattered wind gusts of tropical storm force and a few areas of heavy rains of 1 - 2". The storm brought down a few trees and power lines, knocking out power for about 6,500 people on Maui and the Big Island. Kahului on Maui recorded sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 7 pm local time Monday. Flossie brought 0.79" of rain to the airport, which was a record for the date. Powerful waves pounded the northwest shore of the Big Island, with significant wave heights of 14' recorded at the Hilo buoy Monday afternoon. Satellite images show that Flossie has lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and has dissipated. Hawaii has a new storm to watch, though: Tropical Depression Seven-E, which has formed off the coast of Mexico, and is taking a track that may bring it withing 500 miles of Hawaii next week.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Flossie taken at approximately 20:50 UTC Monday July 29, 2013. At the time, Flossie had top winds near 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Remains of Dorian falling apart
The remains of Tropical Storm Dorian, located a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic, are headed west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Satellite images show that ex-Dorian has almost no heavy thunderstorms, and is being torn up by wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Dorian's remains a 20% chance of regenerating by Thursday. The primary impediment to development is the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure to its west that ex-Dorian is running into. Strong upper-level southwesterly winds associated with this trough are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and driving dry air into the west side of ex-Dorian. This shear is not expected to relent at all during the next few days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predict that ex-Dorian will regenerate. Dorian's remains should continue moving west-northwest during the week, spreading over the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday and over Florida on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
That's about the WORST ever Science paragraph EVER written, but I see the source and chuckle.
Ok sebastianflorida i wish i was there now.
Quoting 1002. weatherman994:
Ok sebastianflorida i wish i was there now.
where are you
1004. Patrap
Get the Ham,..www.solarham.net
Quoting 1001. Patrap:
That's about the WORST ever Science paragraph EVER written, but I see the source and chuckle.
What else do you expect? :P
Quoting 1001. Patrap:
That's about the WORST ever Science paragraph EVER written, but I see the source and chuckle.


almost expect that from the source ..
1007. Patrap


Farsided Eruption (Monday) - STEREO
Quoting 994. unknowncomic:
That's why the Atlantic isn't poppin yet. The East Pacific still is. When that dies out, the Atlantic season seems to get active.

That seems to be the case I remember in 2010 The E-Pac got a Cat % and a cat 3 in June right before we got our first TS and Hurricane
Vero Beach
1010. JLPR2
What caused this bump in the SSTs in the 3.4 region? Did a Kelvin wave pass through?

Quoting 975. MiamiHurricanes09:
EPAC should have Henriette by this time tomorrow.

TAFB suggest 30kts.

EP, 90, 201307310000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1210N, 10950W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, WB, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT CURVING TO 0.3 BANDING =

As far as Gil, he appears stronger than a 40kt tropical storm based off of the microwave signature.


Hmm just imagine when that environment gets into the Caribbean and Atlantic
Whew .... been absolutely swamped at work of late. I pop in tonight and see Dorian is every bit as poofed as a lot of our pros had warned he would soon be! (Dang -- I know the whole rest of the state is sick of rain, but personally I'm always happy for a rainy day or two here in SE Cape Coral - was looking forward to that this coming weekend!)

We did have one marvelous gullywasher at my house today, though "Goodness!"-The main rainshaft got a deep blue glow and I couldn't help but wonder if they were getting hail down around Sanibel....

Okay, I've rolled back through the last four pages and not seen it, so I'll just ask: Do we know when to expect the next MJO pulse in our basin?

'Hope all's well with you WU Gang peeps; I miss this place when the rest of my life gets extra-crazy!

Quoting 1010. JLPR2:
What caused this bump in the SSTs in the 3.4 region? Did a Kelvin wave pass through?



That's what I would assume. The anomalous low-level westerlies associated with those features tend to promote enhanced precipitation and a heightened risk of tropical cyclone activity, which is exactly what we're seeing in the Pacific now.
Quoting 1010. JLPR2:
What caused this bump in the SSTs in the 3.4 region? Did a Kelvin wave pass through?



I think so. Look at the activity now at EPAC.
1015. Kumo
Quoting 982. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Somebody get rid of the media...please.

“The reason it’s dark is that whole chunk of the sun basically ripped off, blew out and is coming our way at about two million miles an hour,” said Powell.


LOL, it's only a coronal hole, these things happen all the time. From the headline it makes it sound like a Carrington Event is about to happen. There's not even a sunspot on the Sun right now capable of producing an X-class flare of that magnitude.
Quoting 970. Bluestorm5:
You're not going to survive long here with these statements, bud.
Quoting 970. Bluestorm5:
You're not going to survive long here with these statements, bud.
I thought she was girl because of her name.
Quoting 980. alabamaredneck:
The very low remnant of Dorian wave will be removed from the NHC radar tonight. On Friday, after being guided into the GOM the yellow circle will come back with 10% chance . The color will skip orange and go to red by weekend. Around Thursday of next week a Cat 2 hurricane somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Not sure of its name but won't be Dorian. Now you can all kickback a few days and take a break from this roller coaster blog.



I'm saving this one to my notes just in case you wind up being doggoned right. ;) I think Dorian is dead, dead, dead, but when there's any remaining energy, one never knows what might happen.

Nothing happens like this though:




No low in the GoM in three days here, but there is another twave embedded within the subsidence layers nearing the Caribbean that's not likely to develop either:

Quoting 1013. KoritheMan:


That's what I would assume. The anomalous low-level westerlies associated with those features tend to promote enhanced precipitation and a heightened risk of tropical cyclone activity, which is exactly what we're seeing in the Pacific now.
The Mjo is not in the Epac at this moment right?
Quoting 1017. moonlightcowboy:



I'm saving this one to my notes just in case you wind up doggoned right. ;) I think Dorian is dead, dead, dead, but when there's any remaining energy, one never knows what might happen.

Nothing happens like this though:




No low in the GoM in three days here, but there is another twave embedded within the subsidence layers nearing the Caribbean that won't develop either:


You notice how that layer eases up as soon at it hits the Caribbean
1021. sar2401
Quoting alabamaredneck:
The very low remnant of Dorian wave will be removed from the NHC radar tonight. On Friday, after being guided into the GOM the yellow circle will come back with 10% chance . The color will skip orange and go to red by weekend. Around Thursday of next week a Cat 2 hurricane somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Not sure of its name but won't be Dorian. Now you can all kickback a few days and take a break from this roller coaster blog.

LOL. You''re giving the rest of us Alabama rednecks a bad name with that forecast. :-)
Quoting 1019. hurricanes2018:

Keep an eye on it
People are complaining about inactive Atlantic without a single storm, but there is 2 storms in East Pacific that might end up being strong, especially Gil? That doesn't make sense... maybe people (mostly trolls) are thirsty to see the danger to other people? Just pointing it out.
When I test clicked. on the Faux News link about the sun chunk....


The WU WARNING notice that I am leaving WUland

DID NOT repeat NOT! appear...

What's up with that??????

1025. Patrap
Quoting 1024. CaicosRetiredSailor:
When I test clicked. on the Faux News link about the sun chunk....


The WU WARNING notice that I am leaving WUland

DID NOT repeat NOT! appear...

What's up with that??????



Wu wormhole...

,careful guy's we may have FOX news inside the wire,secure the perimeter.
Quoting 1023. Bluestorm5:
People are complaining about inactive Atlantic without a single storm, but there is 2 storms in East Pacific that might end up being strong, especially Gil? That doesn't make sense... maybe people (mostly trolls) are thirsty to see the danger to other people? Just pointing it out.
I like watching the East Pacific storms..
Quoting 1023. Bluestorm5:
People are complaining about inactive Atlantic without a single storm, but there is 2 storms in East Pacific that might end up being strong, especially Gil? That doesn't make sense... maybe people (mostly trolls) are thirsty to see the danger to other people? Just pointing it out.


It's not about wanting to see danger, it's about land threats being demonstrably more fun to track.

That being said, I do find the east Pacific much more boring than the Atlantic, but it least it gives me something to do until then.
Quoting 1023. Bluestorm5:
People are complaining about inactive Atlantic without a single storm, but there is 2 storms in East Pacific that might end up being strong, especially Gil? That doesn't make sense... maybe people (mostly trolls) are thirsty to see the danger to other people? Just pointing it out.
I'm only interested in the atlantic.Doesn't mean I'm a troll or want to to see danger.
1029. Patrap
07E

Quoting 1027. KoritheMan:


It's not about wanting to see danger, it's about land threats being demonstrably more fun to track.

That being said, I do find the east Pacific much more boring than the Atlantic, but it least it gives me something to do until then.
I guess it's a big deal when a major is close to land, but it doesn't have to be a threat to land for it to be fun to track. However, EPAC is little easier to forecast so I get your point on these storms being boring.
Quoting 1028. washingtonian115:
I'm only interested in the atlantic.Doesn't mean I'm a troll or want to to see danger.
I get why people want to watch Atlantic because many of us live in hurricane danger area, but it's unbearable to see people complaining why nothing happening in Atlantic. If you want a storm to track, watch what's happening in EPAC.
Quoting 1028. washingtonian115:
I'm only interested in the atlantic.Doesn't mean I'm a troll or want to to see danger.

Agreed but still I do take quick peaks around that side just to see if anything really really really interesting going on so far nothing much
New tropical depression in the WPac

09W:
Quoting 1018. allancalderini:
The Mjo is not in the Epac at this moment right?


It actually is.



Will be interesting to see if any of that moisture maximum makes it way into the Atlantic over the next two weeks.
Quoting 1032. wunderkidcayman:

Agreed but still I do take quick peaks around that side just to see if anything really really really interesting going on so far nothing much


What about that wave that came off Africa?
Quoting 1030. Bluestorm5:
I guess it's a big deal when a major is close to land, but it doesn't have to be a threat to land for it to be fun to track. However, EPAC is little easier to forecast so I get your point on these storms being boring.


Actually yeah, now that you mention it, the lack of mid-latitude weather in the east Pacific is also what makes it dull. Variety and uncertainty can make things fun. That could be part of the reason why I prefer the Atlantic.

But I still find land threats much more interesting to forecast. Out of my five years of forecasting, I've had more fun forecasting Gustav, Ike, Isaac, and Sandy than I ever did Nadine (although that one was a fun marine storm in its own right, annoying as it was :P), Gordon, Alex, Danielle, etc.

It's hard to pinpoint why I find landfalling storms much more interesting, both from an experiential standpoint and from a forecasting standpoint. I guess from the perspective of the latter, it's because forecasting a landfall or land threat makes me feel like I'm actually there. It's part of why I had fun forecasting Flossie yesterday.
Quoting 1034. KoritheMan:


It actually is.



Will be interesting to see if any of that moisture maximum makes it way into the Atlantic over the next two weeks.
Wow thanks,Now I see why we have Gil and possible Henriette.btw do anyone find the name Gil weird.I thought the names for the epac should be in spanish and the name Gil is in English.
Quoting 1009. weatherman994:
Vero Beach
We lived in Indian River Shores; still have an upside down home there that won't sell.
1033. Ameister12 2:22 AM GMT on July 31, 2013
New tropical depression in the WPac

09W:


name is JEBI

Quoting 1034. KoritheMan:


It actually is.



Will be interesting to see if any of that moisture maximum makes it way into the Atlantic over the next two weeks.

I think it will

Quoting 1035. mitchelace5:


What about that wave that came off Africa?

Yeah keeping an eye on that as well

Quoting 1040. wunderkidcayman:

I think it will


Yeah keeping an eye on that as well

Quoting 1040. wunderkidcayman:

I think it will


Yeah keeping an eye on that as well



Could it develop?
Quoting 1041. mitchelace5:


Could it develop?

It could just wait and watch
Those were interesting times (in a BAD way)
Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:


Actually yeah, now that you mention it, the lack of mid-latitude weather in the east Pacific is also what makes it dull. Variety and uncertainty can make things fun. That could be part of the reason why I prefer the Atlantic.

But I still find land threats much more interesting to forecast. Out of my five years of forecasting, I've had more fun forecasting Gustav, Ike, Isaac, and Sandy than I ever did Nadine (although that one was a fun marine storm in its own right, annoying as it was :P), Gordon, Alex, Danielle, etc.

It's hard to pinpoint why I find landfalling storms much more interesting, both from an experiential standpoint and from a forecasting standpoint. I guess from the perspective of the latter, it's because forecasting a landfall or land threat makes me feel like I'm actually there. It's part of why I had fun forecasting Flossie yesterday.


Make sense, I guess. I'm just annoyed because people are expecting too much out of Atlantic at this time of year. Their impatience is why most good bloggers are only on after midnight.
Quoting 1045. Bluestorm5:


Make sense, I guess. I'm just annoyed because people are expecting too much out of Atlantic at this time of year. Their impatience is why most good bloggers are only on after midnight.


There's just a lot of unrealistic expectation in general after the ridiculous July of 2005 (and even 2008, to an extent).
!!
1048. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think it will


Yeah keeping an eye on that as well


WKC, I think there's a real low developing at 30N, 55W. I've been watching it all day and something is up.
The CMC ensembles are indicating the potential for development in the East Atlantic in 10 days or so. Things probably won't be completely quiet for the next two weeks.

It must really bug some of you guys that FOX has the best ratings, far and away!, MSLSD and it's daddy got to lie to make their stories relevant.
Quoting 1050. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The CMC ensembles are indicating the potential for development in the East Atlantic in 10 days or so. Things aren't completely quiet.


Maybe that low in east atlantic right now.
Quoting 1046. KoritheMan:


There's just a lot of unrealistic expectation in general after the ridiculous July of 2005 (and even 2008, to an extent).


Also Kori, the expectations by some experts like CSU,NOAA and others for a very active season with high numbers may have to do with some people talking that way here and in other forums.
1055. sar2401
Quoting sebastianflorida:
Those were interesting times (in a BAD way)

Yep, when the Gulf and Atlantic start looking like that again, Dorian will be a long forgotten piece of the past, remembered only on Wikipedia. :-)

000
FXUS62 KTBW 310200
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013

.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTENSIFIED OVER TAMPA BAY PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT AND DOWNBURST. THE
STORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH AND WEST OVER PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES
AND OVER THE GULF. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING SHOWS AN EASTERLY FLOW
WELL INTO THE TROPOSPHERE WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A PW
OVER 2 INCHES. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

Wow!! That low is keep showing.
Quoting 1023. Bluestorm5:
People are complaining about inactive Atlantic without a single storm, but there is 2 storms in East Pacific that might end up being strong, especially Gil? That doesn't make sense... maybe people (mostly trolls) are thirsty to see the danger to other people? Just pointing it out.


I'm pretty sure many of us on here (trolls or not) are not very interested in what's going on in the EPAC. I think someone who likes meteorology and wants to increase his skills also likes experiencing true weather (including hurricanes).. and not just watching satellite charts on a computer screen.
1059. sar2401
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also Kori, The expectations by some experts like CSU,NOAA and others for a very active season with high numbers may have to do with some people talking that way here and in other forums.

When was the last time any of those organizations forecast even an average year? I get the feeling the headlines sometimes influence the forecast. No need for all you science wonks to give me the speech, it's organizations I'm talking about, not scientists.
Link

This low is going to south carolina not gulf of mexico anymore!!
Quoting 1059. sar2401:

When was the last time any of those organizations forecast even an average year? I get the feeling the headlines sometimes influence the forecast. No need for all you science wonks to give me the speech, it's organizations I'm talking about, not scientists.

Last year.
Quoting 1051. PensacolaDoug:
It must really bug some of you guys that FOX has the best ratings, far and away!, MSLSD and it's daddy got to lie to make their stories relevant.
LOL! They are very biased, what a joke!
Quoting 982. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Somebody get rid of the media...please.

“The reason it’s dark is that whole chunk of the sun basically ripped off, blew out and is coming our way at about two million miles an hour,” said Powell.


Now we just need Bill Nye to say something horrible again to put the icing on the cake for this one.

Although, the solar one was just worded badly, a coronal hole does release massive amounts of particles that can induce auroras. Describing it as "huge part of Sun" gives the wrong visual impression to the public who have very imaginative and impressionable minds.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 16N35W MOVING W AT 5 KT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRAPPED WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF A MONSOONAL GYRE...

BUT IT APPEARS THIS LOWER LEVEL FEATURE HAS WEAKENED AND THE WAVE WILL BEGIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA IN THE VICINITY OF 14N39W TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS NON-EXISTENT DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N E OF 37W.

cough cough...
Good Night All!
So.... the ATL is really boring. Though I remember 2010 did exactly the same during the first half of august.
Quoting 1063. Astrometeor:


Now we just need Bill Nye to say something horrible again to put the icing on the cake for this one.

Although, the solar one was just worded badly, a coronal hole does release massive amounts of particles that can induce auroras. Describing it as "huge part of Sun" gives the wrong visual impression to the public who have very imaginative and impressionable minds.


And I was hoping for a massive stellar core fragment like in that old Star Trek episode....
Quoting 1061. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Last year.


Bingo.
Quoting 1050. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The CMC ensembles are indicating the potential for development in the East Atlantic in 10 days or so. Things probably won't be completely quiet for the next two weeks.

Yeah, I got attacked by blog for pointing that out 10 hours ago. Like I was saying earlier, we might need to watch this model (and maybe other models) and see what happens.
1071. sar2401
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It must really bug some of you guys that FOX has the best ratings, far and away!, MSLSD and it's daddy got to lie to make their stories relevant.

Which guys are you talking about? I like fox, or, I should say, I find them the least annoying and dishonest of the MSM. I just wish they had better weather.


Living in a desert....
Quoting 1046. KoritheMan:


There's just a lot of unrealistic expectation in general after the ridiculous July of 2005 (and even 2008, to an extent).
And 19 storms a year the last three years.
Quoting 1051. PensacolaDoug:
It must really bug some of you guys that FOX has the best ratings, far and away!, MSLSD and it's daddy got to lie to make their stories relevant.


Ratings have what to do with accurate journalism?

Fox is more of news entertainment, plus they are biased heavily to the right. However, the other stations are terribly biased in opposite direction, but they just aren't good at making it as entertaining, instead whining about disenfranchisement and the like all day...

The problem is some here seem to act as if Fox is the only heavily biased major media source, which is a joke because the others are just as bad. NBC is actually arguably even worse if that's even possible.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL STORM GIL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 117.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Quoting 1046. KoritheMan:


There's just a lot of unrealistic expectation in general after the ridiculous July of 2005 (and even 2008, to an extent).


I completely agree.
Quoting 1070. Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I got attacked by blog for pointing that out 10 hours ago. Like I was saying earlier, we might need to watch this model (and maybe other models) and see what happens.

I agree and I know how you feel
Quoting 1075. Civicane49:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL STORM GIL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 117.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


Send it to the ATL .. let's say.. somewhere around 16.2N 56.9W
keep your eyes on Cape Verde
It's almost August.
Link WV Loop
Then even those of us with day jobs will be staying up late!
night all.
Quoting 1074. Jedkins01:


Ratings have what to do with accurate journalism?

Fox is more of news entertainment, plus they are biased heavily to the right. However, the other stations are terribly biased in opposite direction, but they just aren't good at making it as entertaining, instead whining about disenfranchisement and the like all day...

The problem is some here seem to act as if Fox is the only heavily biased major media source, which is a joke because the others are just as bad. NBC is actually arguably even worse if that's even possible.

It would be nice to have a network that JUST reported the NEWS LOL!!!
Quoting 1072. CaribBoy:


Living in a desert....

Won't long just suffer with me for a little longer
Quoting 1051. PensacolaDoug:
It must really bug some of you guys that FOX has the best ratings, far and away!, MSLSD and it's daddy got to lie to make their stories relevant.


Ratings doesn't equal quality. I'll take quality over quantity any day.
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF BOTH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS AT
30/2227 UTC INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
MORE THAN 70 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND ADT...AND A 2124 UTC AMSU
ESTIMATE OF 48 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAL AND
EXPANDING...WITH A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAVING BECOME
BECOME ESTABLISHED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REAMINS 285/13 BASED ON VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX DATA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TO THE NORTH OF GIL. THIS VERY STABLE STEERING FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST THEREAFTER. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS GIL APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

BASED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A CDO-LIKE
FEATURE DEVELOPING...PLUS THE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURE NOTED IN
THE LATEST AMSU MICROWAVE DATA...GIL APPEARS POISED TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTFLOW
PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND EXPAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE TOO LOW.
REGARDLESS...OF THE DEVELOPMENT RATE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. AFTER A
SHORT LEVELING OFF PERIOD...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND BY 96 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.1N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.6N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.2N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.2N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 15.9N 128.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.4N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 16.5N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 1081. wunderkidcayman:

Won't long just suffer with me for a little longer


Wondering when will this nightmare end .. :) :(
Quoting 1075. Civicane49:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL STORM GIL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 117.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

I'm surprised they only raised it by 5mph
1086. ncstorm
Quoting 1070. Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I got attacked by blog for pointing that out 10 hours ago. Like I was saying earlier, we might need to watch this model (and maybe other models) and see what happens.


You didnt get attacked..LOL..especially not from the blog..only one poster was debating you about the models..
1087. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I got attacked by blog for pointing that out 10 hours ago. Like I was saying earlier, we might need to watch this model (and maybe other models) and see what happens.

I'm just a litte snake-bit by the CMC, since it forecast a hurricane right off the Panhandle for three weeks straight, and blew Dorian completely. We'll see if this thing turn into something this time.
Quoting 1080. gulfbreeze:
It would be nice to have a network that JUST reported the NEWS LOL!!!


Al Jazeera English is pretty good, neutral coverage. No kidding.
1089. auburn
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
Quoting 1078. CaribBoy:


Send it to the ATL .. let's say.. somewhere around 16.2N 56.9W

Lol
Calm down your time will come (said in my ancestral tongue of Scottish)
1091. ncstorm
Quoting 1058. CaribBoy:


I'm pretty sure many of us on here (trolls or not) are not very interested in what's going on in the EPAC. I think someone who likes meteorology and wants to increase his skills also likes experiencing true weather (including hurricanes).. and not just watching satellite charts on a computer screen.


I find the EPAC extremely boring but to each his own..just because someone isnt interested doesn't mean they want death and devastation..
Quoting 1090. wunderkidcayman:

Lol
Calm down your time will come (said in my ancestral tongue of Scottish)


XD
Quoting 1084. CaribBoy:


Wondering when will this nightmare end .. :) :(

It will end the day after tomorrow when August that when the real storm season starts
Quoting 1091. ncstorm:


I find the EPAC extremely boring but to each his own..just because someone isnt interested doesn't mean they want death and devastation..


+1 :)
Quoting 1086. ncstorm:


You didnt get attacked..LOL..especially not from the blog..only one poster was debating you about the models..
There were few... and they thought I was model worshiper. I know it's 240 hours in future and it's not reliable, but I was suggesting it's something to watch for.
Every year is not going to be 2005 or 2004! We are just getting to the main part of the Season and all your Models do not Know what Mother Nature has in Store for us we have to just wait & SEE!!!
Quoting 1093. wunderkidcayman:

It will end the day after tomorrow when August that when the real storm season starts


Ok let's stay positive ...
1098. nigel20
Good evening fellow bloggers!

Kingston Jamaica weather station
( updated Tue, 30 Jul 2013 8:59 pm EST )

28°C
High: 32°C | Low: 27°C
Partly Cloudy

Sunrise: 5:42 am
Sunset: 6:41 pm
Visibility: 9.99 km
Feels like: 28°C
Humidity: 79%
Wind: 8.05 km/h
1099. ncstorm
Quoting 1095. Bluestorm5:
There were few... and they thought I was model worshiper. I know it's 240 hours in future and it's not reliable, but I was suggesting it's something to watch for.


LOL..I love the CMC..you good in my book..the CMC jokes are soooo old..I just shrug and keep it moving..
Still not convinced Dorian is dead. Can see blue tops trying to wrap around. My definition of a system being dead is when the convection is gone and there is no evidence of spin in the satellite pictures. This has not happened yet. When it does, I will not mention this storm's name again.
Mid level low associated with ex Dorian's remains is getting stronger, but no convection equals no low level circulation. Goodnight everyone.
1102. ncstorm
500


850
Quoting 1099. ncstorm:


LOL..I love the CMC..you good in my book..the CMC jokes are soooo old..I just shrug and keep it moving..
CMC makes too much storms, I agree. It's not as reliable as other global models, but I remember from chat discussion with Levi, TomTaylor, TA13, etc, that CMC doesn't like to hype up African waves unlike everywhere else in Atlantic.
I am personally still intrigued by 91L as well. Just curious why the intensity models were so bullish with the area in the Bahamas and to just go poof like that. Granted it's beat down and not worth much effort but, I don't know, just going to keep half an eye on it personally.
Quoting 1101. TheDawnAwakening:
Mid level low associated with ex Dorian's remains is getting stronger, but no convection equals no low level circulation. Goodnight everyone.

Yeah but still has good vort at 850mb and 925mb which indicates this still has a rotation near the surface so anything can happen
here come the tropical storm
Does anyone have any links I could go to if I wanted to see data or statistics on the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, and other models, or a comparison statistic on GFS vs ECMWF? Would be nice, a part of some AP summer coursework I am working on (differences in supercomputer models and the relations to our hurricane forecasts).
1108. geepy86
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

It will end the day after tomorrow when August that when the real storm season starts

i hope not
1109. geepy86
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yeah but still has good vort at 850mb and 925mb which indicates this still has a rotation near the surface so anything can happen

let him go already
1110. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Last year.


“NOAA’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. “But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.” Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

"Less active compared to previous years" is the same as saying an average year, TW? 20th anniversary of Andrew, that devastated all of South Florida?

As I said, organizations do press releases for headlines, not just for information.
1111. will40
Quoting 1107. Astrometeor:
Does anyone have any links I could go to if I wanted to see data or statistics on the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, and other models, or a comparison statistic on GFS vs ECMWF? Would be nice, a part of some AP summer coursework I am working on (differences in supercomputer models and the relations to our hurricane forecasts).



Skypony could help you with that if she is in her blog


SFC map won't depict Dorian as a wave so he does it himself!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM JOLINA
11:00 AM PhST July 31 2013
========================================

"JOLINA" has intensified into a tropical storm

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Jolina [JEBI] (997 hPa) located at 15.0N 115.6E or 450 km west of Subic, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "JOLINA" will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over MIMAROPA and CALABARZON.

Meanwhile, A Low Pressure Area was at 210 km east of Virac,Catanduanes 14.3°N,126.4°E. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 1113. whitewabit:
Hurricane Forecast Computer Models by Jeff Masters


Thanks!

Quoting 1111. will40:



Skypony could help you with that if she is in her blog


I'll ask her about it, thank you.
Quoting 1107. Astrometeor:
Does anyone have any links I could go to if I wanted to see data or statistics on the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, and other models, or a comparison statistic on GFS vs ECMWF? Would be nice, a part of some AP summer coursework I am working on (differences in supercomputer models and the relations to our hurricane forecasts).


Our friend nrtiwlnvragn may also have info about that.
Question: I've followed many storms like Dorian where we talk about needing the MLC to work down or connect to an LLC. How often, if ever, do we have have a stronger LLC without a comparable MLC? Sorry, just trying to learn. TIA.
Quoting 1110. sar2401:


%u201CNOAA%u2019s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,%u201D said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D. %u201CBut regardless of the outlook, it%u2019s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew.%u201D Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

"Less active compared to previous years" is the same as saying an average year, TW? 20th anniversary of Andrew, that devastated all of South Florida?

As I said, organizations do press releases for headlines, not just for information.

NOAA predicted 9-15 (median 12) named storms, 4-8 (median 6) hurricanes, and 1-3 (median 2) major hurricanes in their first outlook last May. The average is 12, 6, and 3, respectively.
Quoting 1069. CybrTeddy:


Bingo.

Not right now. It's too late.
1120. nigel20
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Our friend nrtiwlnvragn may also have info about that.

Hi Tropics! How was the weather in PR today?

We had a bit of afternoon rain in the hilly interior areas today, but still no rain for Kingston and eastern Jamaica. :(
Quoting 1120. nigel20:

Hi Tropics! How was the weather in PR today?

We had a bit of afternoon rain in the hilly interior areas today, but still no rain for Kingston and eastern Jamaica. :(


Hi nigel. Some afternoon showers but for the most part it was a good day weatherwise.
Quoting 1117. animalrsq:
Question: I've followed many storms like Dorian where we talk about needing the MLC to work down or connect to an LLC. How often, if ever, do we have have a stronger LLC without a comparable MLC? Sorry, just trying to learn. TIA.

Quite a bit but not all end up forming storms
1123. LBAR
Quoting 1113. whitewabit:
Hurricane Forecast Computer Models by Jeff Masters


From the NHC link in that article:

LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models.


Toot! Toot!
1124. bappit
Quoting 1074. Jedkins01:


Ratings have what to do with accurate journalism?

There's probably a negative correlation.
1125. geepy86
gotta love ma nature, does what she wants to do
Anyway guys I'm out for the rest of early night be back at midnight or later
Quoting 1102. ncstorm:
500


850



Just shows the LLC way out ahead of the mid, if theres even a center at this time, this was over days ago.
Quoting 1089. auburn:
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.


I apologize, you are right :)
ARE WE going to get three names storms here!
1130. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Does anyone have any links I could go to if I wanted to see data or statistics on the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, and other models, or a comparison statistic on GFS vs ECMWF? Would be nice, a part of some AP summer coursework I am working on (differences in supercomputer models and the relations to our hurricane forecasts).

Good luck in your hunt. I sure haven't been able to find much, but I did run across one interesting chart.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (T1309)
12:00 PM JST July 31 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jebi (1000 hPa) located at 14.7N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.1N 113.9E - 40 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 17.7N 111.6E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 19.1N 108.3E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
1132. Walshy
1133. ncstorm
looks like the 00z GFS is seeing some potential mischief at africa..

27 hours



75 hours




This likely would have been a tornado if it was on land earlier, water spouts don't typically have this robust of signature's on radar unless they are tornadic.
1135. Walshy
Next round of rain for the south-east knocking on the door. Light sprinkles so far here in western NC.

Quoting 1133. ncstorm:
looks like the 00z GFS is seeing some potential mischief at africa..

27 hours



75 hours


Looks like that Bermuda ridge is gonna build back westward.
I have a question regarding the NAO and Greenland Blocking. Does this blocking pattern in the North Atlantic have any effect on tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin?
Quoting 1082. Naga5000:


Ratings doesn't equal quality. I'll take quality over quantity any day.



People do recognize quality. Hence the high ratings.
You ought to watch their hard news programing. It's not political at all. Their opinion programing certainly is tho.
Quoting 1137. lobdelse81:
I have a question regarding the NAO and Greenland Blocking. Does this blocking pattern in the North Atlantic have any effect on tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin?


The NAO is only one part of a broader pattern. All it is is the difference in sea level pressure between the Azores ridge and the Icelandic low.

It may effect mid-latitude troughing to an extent over North America, but I have reasons to believe it's more important in winter, and largely irrelevant in summer.
1140. txjac
Quoting 922. VR46L:


You still not getting much rain?

You seem to be within the High Pressure in the Gulf

and the bad news is the front in West Texas seems stationary
Current


48 HOURS ON



Thanks for answering. So, it's the front that is to the east/south of mr that holds back anyting coming this way? Didnt know if it was tat or if it was being affected by thr fronts coming towards me.

I try not to disrupt the blog with my amateur questions when its busy. Just trying to understand.
Quoting 1139. KoritheMan:


The NAO is only one part of a broader pattern. All it is is the difference in sea level pressure between the Azores ridge and the Icelandic low.

It may effect mid-latitude troughing to an extent over North America, but I have reasons to believe it's more important in winter, and largely irrelevant in summer.


Keep rockin' it, Kori! ;)
Quoting 1102. ncstorm:
500


850


NC, you thinking xDorian is still gonna do something?
Gil continues to organize very nicely.

TROPICAL STORM Gil continues to organize very nicely.
Guys,I'm back early,my tropics senses are tingling.
Quoting 1145. HurricaneAndre:
Guys,I'm back early,my tropics senses are tingling.


So are mine, if you count the Pacific.
Quoting 1133. ncstorm:
looks like the 00z GFS is seeing some potential mischief at africa..

27 hours



75 hours


Has to be taken with a "grain(s) of dust"...

Someone told me that they liked how I post these every single day, so, here's today's reports (South Dakota and Nebraska's turn):

Quoting 1149. Astrometeor:
Someone told me that they liked how I post these every single day, so, here's today's reports (South Dakota and Nebraska's turn):



Well I didn't, and I'm the only one that counts, dear boy.
Quoting 1150. KoritheMan:


Well I didn't, and I'm the only one that counts, dear boy.


lol, I'll keep that in mind the next time I post Kori.
Quoting 1151. Astrometeor:


lol, I'll keep that in mind the next time I post Kori.


Good. Wouldn't want you to get the wrong idea.
1153. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I didn't, and I'm the only one that counts, dear boy.

Don't listen to Kori, who only thinks he's the only on that counts. :-) I wonder how many times in the second to last day in July we'll ever see an SPC damage report map with absolutely no damage reports from east of the Mississippi? Very weird summer so far.
Hmm... I wonder if Gil and 90E will experience the Fujiwhara effect. They're so close together, at least thru satellite.
1155. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


So are mine, if you count the Pacific.

My senses were tingling also but it turned out to be just my dog licking my leg. :-)
1156. sar2401
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Hmm... I wonder if Gil, 99E, and 90E will experience the Fujiwhara effect. They're so close together, at least thru satellite.

I was thinking the same thing earlier. I'm not even sure that there's a model of what happens if three storms do the dance, so it might be very interesting.
1157. AztecCe
Gil & 90E
Quoting 1148. Kowaliga:


Has to be taken with a "grain(s) of dust"...



Looks like it might (emphasis on might) undercut the dust.
Quoting 1156. sar2401:

I was thinking the same thing earlier. I'm not even sure that there's a model of what happens if three storms do the dance, so it might be very interesting.

Hmm... I just figured that 99E is the invest that became Gil. What I meant to say was the disturbance to the west of Gil. You understand, right?
1160. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


NC, you thinking xDorian is still gonna do something?

Poor Dorian. Not even generating any convection tonight. May be one of the few storms that actually dissipates at DMax.
1161. JLPR2
Well now... 00z GFS says nothing all the way to August 16th, but it does show something interesting...

00hrs, current pressure anomalies are mostly positive:



180hrs and beyond, pressure anomalies are negative, almost everywhere:

1162. sar2401
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hmm... I just figured that 99E is the invest that became Gil. What I meant to say was the disturbance to the west of Gil. You understand, right?

Yes, I did, just too late to sort it all out, except to say there are three tropical things out there. :-)
Quoting 1158. weatherdogg:


Looks like it might (emphasis on might) undercut the dust.


Think the NHC could start tracking it soon?
1164. JLPR2
...
Quoting 1153. sar2401:

Don't listen to Kori, who only thinks he's the only on that counts. :-) I wonder how many times in the second to last day in July we'll ever see an SPC damage report map with absolutely no damage reports from east of the Mississippi? Very weird summer so far.


Well, unless you missed the one wind report over in Tampa, then yeah, pretty weird to see no reports east of the Mississippi River.


Good night WU. Midnight.
1167. JLPR2
Quoting 1164. JLPR2:
Also for those depressed about not having something to track I give you the 00z GEM:



Oh wait, it seems to be an error on the map, all the other plots don't show that. It would also explain the insane pressure anomalies and hundreds of low pressure centers...

1168. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now... 00z GFS says nothing all the way to August 16th, but it does show something interesting...

00hrs, current pressure anomalies are mostly positive:



180hrs and beyond, pressure anomalies are negative, almost everywhere:


Let's hope the GFS really does have it right this time. First time the A-B high starts to move north, although not losing any strength. Following the 1016 line, this would put the Bahamas at more risk but anything coming off Africa has a much better chance of recurving OTS after that. Also decreases the chances for a CV storm to turn into a Caribbean cruiser.
Quoting 1164. JLPR2:
Also for those depressed about not having something to track I give you the 00z GEM:


Wow nice very stron TS or weak cane I guess
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB03-2013
5:30 AM IST July 31 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over north Odisha and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal moved westwards and lay centered over interior Odisha and adjoining Chhatisgarh, close to south of Jharsuguda.

The system would move west northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hrs.
1171. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:


Oh wait, it seems to be an error on the map, all the other plots don't show that...


Maybe I'm just a moron (I've been called that many times in the past), but I count 34 lows on that map. How the heck do you figure out which one is real and which one is supposed to be some kind of threat to develop?
Quoting 1168. sar2401:

Let's hope the GFS really does have it right this time. First time the A-B high starts to move north, although not losing any strength. Following the 1016 line, this would put the Bahamas at more risk but anything coming off Africa has a much better chance of recurving OTS after that. Also decreases the chances for a CV storm to turn into a Caribbean cruiser.
Quoting 1168. sar2401:

Let's hope the GFS really does have it right this time. First time the A-B high starts to move north, although not losing any strength. Following the 1016 line, this would put the Bahamas at more risk but anything coming off Africa has a much better chance of recurving OTS after that. Also decreases the chances for a CV storm to turn into a Caribbean cruiser.


I doubt ALL storms will recurve out to sea this year.
Quoting 1164. JLPR2:
Also for those depressed about not having something to track I give you the 00z GEM:

Lol... that's a real "gem" there.
Quoting 1104. ProgressivePulse:
I am personally still intrigued by 91L as well. Just curious why the intensity models were so bullish with the area in the Bahamas and to just go poof like that. Granted it's beat down and not worth much effort but, I don't know, just going to keep half an eye on it personally.


That's a good idea for all Cape Verde Seedlings as Pat calls them. Sometimes they just don't want to go away/dissipate. I think a few/several years back a Cape Verde wave became a storm and came ashore on the Gulf Coast and went back offshore mid Atlantic Coast and got renamed as another storm! Tough sons of guns they are.
Haven't looked at any maps/charts yet.....Been watching War and Remembrance which is like 20-30 hours long...lol. Is the ULL just west of X this morning starting to move west and X following it? Just wondering.
1176. JLPR2
Quoting 1171. sar2401:

Maybe I'm just a moron (I've been called that many times in the past), but I count 34 lows on that map. How the heck do you figure out which one is real and which one is supposed to be some kind of threat to develop?


That is an excellent question.
In the CATL alone there are 7, ridiculous model...
1177. vis0
Quoting 1107. Astrometeor:
Does anyone have any links I could go to if I wanted to see data or statistics on the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET, and other models, ..........

might be some helpful links In your mail
Deader than a doornail. "sigh"
EPAC a rising, bring da MJO.

1180. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:


Oh wait, it seems to be an error on the map, all the other plots don't show that. It would also explain the insane pressure anomalies and hundreds of low pressure centers...



The GFS at 108 hours, by comparison to the CMC, still shows the equivalent of a gigantic Rex block across the entire Atlantic. You couldn't get a Dachshund though that. :-)

Note that more than half of the xDorian twave axis is below the 1016mb line and in the northern Caribbean.


And, there is 850mb vorticity sfc reflection at the mouth of the Yucatan.

1183. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Note that more than half of the xDorian twave axis is below the 1016mb line and in the northern Caribbean.



Yes, and I'm sure it will be a nice tropical wave for Cuba. They've been a little dry, so maybe it will help some.
Quoting 1181. moonlightcowboy:
Note that more than half of the xDorian twave axis is below the 1016mb line and in the northern Caribbean.


Hey new low by Africa.
Quoting 1184. HurricaneAndre:
Hey new low by Africa.


How's that new low doing so far? Looking healthy?
90E stays at 60%.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND IT STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.
1187. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


That's a good idea for all Cape Verde Seedlings as Pat calls them. Sometimes they just don't want to go away/dissipate. I think a few/several years back a Cape Verde wave became a storm and came ashore on the Gulf Coast and went back offshore mid Atlantic Coast and got renamed as another storm! Tough sons of guns they are.

Yeah, Joe, but you and me and a bunch of others have been watching Dorian for, what, four nights straight as it goes toward DMax? How many times have we seen it actually contract as we got to 1:30 EDT? It has consistently looked worse for about 12 hours. I'm not even sure of how much we're seeing is just high and mid-level clouds. Dorian is well and truly dead at this point.
Well, well, well... Look what we have here. Here we are 24 hours later (a Dmax and a Dmin later) and STILL no regeneration of Dorian. Guess the Dorian wishcasters were wrong. Like I said last night, and it came to fruition, that ex-Dorian would be given a "Near 0" chance of regeneration by the NHC, by 2pm yesterday (Tuesday)... And why? That upper level low that some said was weakening, never weakend. And now, it's not even worthy of a floater.

Next Atlantic storm, please...
you can take it off the board!
Gil continues to organize very nicely.
where.are.you.exdorian?
There was a death related to Dorian but I can`t find where and how it occur.
1193. sar2401
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Well, well, well... Look what we have here. Here we are 24 hours later (a Dmax and a Dmin later) and STILL no regeneration of Dorian. Guess the Dorian wishcasters were wrong. Like I said last night, and it came to fruition, that ex-Dorian would be given a "Near 0" chance of regeneration by the NHC, by 2pm yesterday (Tuesday)... And why? That upper level low that some said was weakening, never weakend. And now, it's not even worthy of a floater.

Next Atlantic storm, please...

Well, the NHC finally killed it off completely at the 2:00 TWO. It survived longer than I thought it would, kind of like someone with a fatal disease that was a fighter, but the ultimate outcome was really never in doubt, at least not this year. I feel some sympathy for those who were in here rooting for him the whole time, but it's not like a football game, where fans making noise can actually influence the outcome. Time to move on now.
1194. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
There was a death related to Dorian but I can`t find where and how it occur.

Not even a good obituary, Allan, but it has gone to that great dissipation corral in the Atlantic.
1195. Kumo
Quoting 1193. sar2401:

Well, the NHC finally killed it off completely at the 2:00 TWO. It survived longer than I thought it would, kind of like someone with a fatal disease that was a fighter, but the ultimate outcome was really never in doubt, at least not this year. I feel some sympathy for those who were in here rooting for him the whole time, but it's not like a football game, where fans making noise can actually influence the outcome. Time to move on now.


I had to chuckle a few times at some of the members who let this storm get under their skin. You would think that they were getting trolled.

It was still a fun system to watch and I learned quite a bit from you folks about it. Thank you.



...well, got the central GoM part right. ;P
ex dorian is not dead yet.
Quoting 1197. Camille33:
ex dorian is not dead yet.


Why not? I don't even see it on the NHC site anymore.
1199. Kumo
Quoting 1196. moonlightcowboy:



...well, got the central GoM part right. ;P


That would be awesome if it makes its way up to the NW Gulf, even as a wave, we could definitely use the rain up here.
Quoting 1199. Kumo:


That would be awesome if it makes its way up to the NW Gulf, even as a wave, we could definitely use the rain up here.

ITS NOT GOING TO THE GOM THE VORTICITY IS GOING OUT TO SEA.The axis of wave will go there and bring 0 storms.
Gil strengthening.

EP, 07, 2013073106, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1183W, 45, 1001, TS,


Rumble Rumble Rumble...

Over my head.
Quoting 1202. CaicosRetiredSailor:


Rumble Rumble Rumble...

Over my head.
cute.
Alright...there's something that needs to be said. Now whether you agree with me or not...is your choice. So...here goes.

We need a new approach to forecasting weather and hurricanes completely. Too many forecasters are relying too much on these...models...that fail to initialize the storms correctly. They look at models as a few people said on here as a "gospel." What needs to be focused on...is the upper atmospheric patterns to tell us what will and will not happen with storms. We need to go back to the old way of forecasting.

Look at Lee, Isaac, Chantal, Dorian, and many others.
Its not just with hurricanes...its everyday weather as well. Tornadoes...severe weather...Etc.

These models cause all kinds of arguments and embarrassments to weather forecasters. In a sense we DO need the models...but not to a big extent. We need to take what the models say with a grain of salt from now on. Look at models all you want! Do that! BUT...focus more on atmospheric patterns to validate what the models say.

Last thing...on this blog...there's too many arguments about storms due to these models. They aren't a gospel...and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Enough said.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (T1309)
15:00 PM JST July 31 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Jebi (998 hPa) located at 14.8N 115.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 113.8E - 40 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 18.5N 110.9E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 20.4N 106.7E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
Gil is organizing very nicely.

EP, 90, 2013073106, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1105W, 25, 1009, LO,
Quoting 1204. Stormchaser121:
Alright...there's something that needs to be said. Now whether you agree with me or not...is your choice. So...here goes.

We need a new approach to forecasting weather and hurricanes completely. Too many forecasters are relying too much on these...models...that fail to initialize the storms correctly. They look at models as a few people said on here as a "gospel." What needs to be focused on...is the upper atmospheric patterns to tell us what will and will not happen with storms. We need to go back to the old way of forecasting.

Look at Lee, Isaac, Chantal, Dorian, and many others.
Its not just with hurricanes...its everyday weather as well. Tornadoes...severe weather...Etc.

These models cause all kinds of arguments and embarrassments to weather forecasters. In a sense we DO need the models...but not to a big extent. We need to take what the models say with a grain of salt from now on. Look at models all you want! Do that! BUT...focus more on atmospheric patterns to validate what the models say.

Last thing...on this blog...there's too many arguments about storms due to these models. They aren't a gospel...and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Enough said.


Models should be taken as guidance; never anything else.

How many times was Dorian forecast to recurve by the GFS/CMC/ECMWF, even after the storm formed? And look at it now; it's heading for the Gulf.
Quoting 1208. KoritheMan:


Models should be taken as guidance; never anything else.

How many times was Dorian forecast to recurve by the GFS/CMC/ECMWF, even after the storm formed? And look at it now; it's heading for the Gulf.

Thats what im saying. They dont need to be COMPLETELY relied on.
If anyone's interested, here are the photos I found on Flossie in Hawaii.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION BOB03-2013
8:30 AM IST July 31 2013
=======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over interior Odisha and adjoining Chhattisgarh moved west northwestwards and lay centered over north Chhattisgarh, close to southeast of Pendra.

The system would move further west northwestwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

...GIL STEADILY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 118.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0
FROM TAFB AND THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT...WARRANTING AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NEGLIGIBLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIL COULD BEGIN
TO INGEST A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...SHOWING GIL REACHING HURRICANE
STATUS IN 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13 KT. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE GIL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND GIL
SHOULD RESPOND BY SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE...AND THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH ON THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED
SOUTHWARD...ENDING UP CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.4N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.8N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.2N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 15.7N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
1216. barbamz


Rare atmospheric phenomenon over Armagh
BBC, 31 July 2013 Last updated at 05:33 GMT
... The images show the sprite, a carrot-shaped flash of light, rising high above the thunderclouds as seen from Armagh.
..."Apart from being extraordinary and awesome to behold, the relatively recent discovery of sprites reminds us that the Earth's upper atmosphere remains a mystery, with a lot still to be learned about the environment of our own planet." ...


Good morning everybody!
1217. viman
Yaaaawwwwnnnnnn....
Moooorrrrnnnnning....
Where's everyone?
Where's the coffee??
1218. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks! Coffee and Tea are perked for when you get here..enjoy!..
Quoting 1216. barbamz:


Rare atmospheric phenomenon over Armagh
BBC, 31 July 2013 Last updated at 05:33 GMT
... The images show the sprite, a carrot-shaped flash of light, rising high above the thunderclouds as seen from Armagh.
..."Apart from being extraordinary and awesome to behold, the relatively recent discovery of sprites reminds us that the Earth's upper atmosphere remains a mystery, with a lot still to be learned about the environment of our own planet." ...


Good morning everybody!


That's not a 'sprite'. It's the eye of Sauron. I knew he'd be back.
1220. LargoFl
448 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR TAMPA BAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE
PARK AND ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
1222. barbamz
China issues heat alert as 'hottest July' hits Shanghai
BBC, 31 July 2013 Last updated at 07:46 GMT
Temperatures in parts of China have hit record highs, prompting an emergency level-two nationwide heat alert for the first time.
In Shanghai, at least 10 people have died from heatstroke, as the city experiences its hottest July in 140 years, reports say. ...


looks like some new convection firing up with dorian getting closer to florida
Quoting 1218. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks! Coffee and Tea are perked for when you get here..enjoy!..
glad you survived the tornadoes last night
Good morning everyone, good afternoon Barb, good evening Aussie.
1226. barbamz
Quoting 1219. yonzabam:


That's not a 'sprite'. It's the eye of Sauron. I knew he'd be back.



Wiki: The Eye of Sauron as portrayed in the Lord of the Rings movie trilogy as Sauron's physical form in the Third Age. - Lol, there is some resemblance, no doubt.


Hmmm, southeastern edge of the ULL with the D-remnants is curling in.
Good Morning to the Blog!

I have just finished editing the GOES East Hurricane Sector Animation for June - July 2013

It plays out in 10:30

Currently, it is rendering. Then it will be uploaded to YouTube

I estimate that it will be up here on the blog at about 7 am CDT

It was quite a labor of love. My hope is that you find it interesting and that you enjoy watching it.

See you again soon! I have to take this time now to prepare my apartment for some new furniture that is arriving at 10 o'clock today.

Oz---
Sometimes i hate local mets becuase they always talk about the good things with a storm and they never really breakdown anything else about a TC.
So xDorian is still trying it seems, but shear is really problematic it looks like. The NE quadrant does not appear to be getting started for some reason. It'll take a long shot for xDorian to take this and make it work.
1230. airmet3
Quoting 1204. Stormchaser121:
Alright...there's something that needs to be said. Now whether you agree with me or not...is your choice. So...here goes.

We need a new approach to forecasting weather and hurricanes completely. Too many forecasters are relying too much on these...models...that fail to initialize the storms correctly. They look at models as a few people said on here as a "gospel." What needs to be focused on...is the upper atmospheric patterns to tell us what will and will not happen with storms. We need to go back to the old way of forecasting.

Look at Lee, Isaac, Chantal, Dorian, and many others.
Its not just with hurricanes...its everyday weather as well. Tornadoes...severe weather...Etc.

These models cause all kinds of arguments and embarrassments to weather forecasters. In a sense we DO need the models...but not to a big extent. We need to take what the models say with a grain of salt from now on. Look at models all you want! Do that! BUT...focus more on atmospheric patterns to validate what the models say.

Last thing...on this blog...there's too many arguments about storms due to these models. They aren't a gospel...and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Enough said.

So you would rather go back to the day where three day forecasts are less accurate than today's five day forecasts?
I do agree that some understanding of the atmosphere is required to help sort through the model solutions. This lack of understanding is what creates the disagreements. Too many folks go with the model that creates the solution they want to see happen.
I believe the main models used for tropical systems have performed adequately so far this season.
Hi Bri.
Morning Doug!
dorian firing up again could see 40% maybe later today
Looking at the 850mb vorticity map, it seems like the old vort has run off and died and a new one is trying to form under the deep convection. Very weak right now though.
during the evacuation of e cen fl one car speeding west left a trail of vulture feathers in its wake. an officer stopped the speeding bird and demanded to tag the beast. ouch
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Nothing yet from the models on any imminent development for early to mid August. Maybe some lower pressures in MDR but still no development.
i know one turkey buzzard I wish they would harness and gag lol.
1238. MahFL
Quoting 1233. buzzardswrath:
dorian firing up again could see 40% maybe later today


You won't see 40 %, there is 30 kts of shear to the west of ex Dorian.
X Dorian flaring up again.
Oh no, not again..

Link
Quoting 1231. PensacolaDoug:
Hi Bri.


Yo Doug! :)

It only took me 10 minutes to make a living hell out of this apartment. :)

The video is taking longer to upload than I expected. YouTube says it will be ready in 170 minutes from now.

MARK!
Quoting 1233. buzzardswrath:
dorian firing up again could see 40% maybe later today


One thing is for sure after watching my new video that is going to be available to everyone later this morning...

Those remnants will not spin up into a cyclone.
Quoting 1232. indianrivguy:
Morning Doug!



G'mornin IRG!

Hi HG. We know you're lurking! We know everything....
the beast is out of the house for awhile its garbage day
1245. beell
An uptick in the strength/depth of the West African Monsoon this week. Even shows very well at 850 mb on the GFS. Low pressure should more or less just sit in place near the coast. Some blobbiness expected.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
14N25W THEN ALONG 10N31W TO 7N38W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-
18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 29W-
32W.




07/31 06Z GFS 850 mb-Valid @ 48 hrs

1233: Trolling this morning?
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
25N78W TO 18N78W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS MOVING W OF AN UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC WHICH IS
ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY NOT BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

Good morning, everyone!! SO GLAD the tropics have been quiet and are STAYING quiet. The way it should be! Early morning on the farm today...lots of harvesting. BUT, thought I would check in and post our weather we have been having.

Needless to say, EXTREMELY disappointed with the rainfall we got yesterday. .35". ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME???. The HPC was on us with a 1.75 to 2" inch totals all week. SO WHAT THE FREAK happened. UGH!!!! Oh well, I guess we wait until the next storm.

And Doug totally correct, we do know everything. lol.

Other than that, a gloomy morning from the woods this morning. Hoping we can squeeze out some more moisture but knowing my luck don't think that a gonna happen. Rats.

Natalie
And Doug totally correct, we do know everything. lol.


We have ways of making you talk!
Yet, but it's fun to have something to track...
Quoting 1248. SouthernIllinois:
Good morning, everyone!! SO GLAD the tropics have been quiet and are STAYING quiet. The way it should be! Early morning on the farm today...lots of harvesting. BUT, thought I would check in and post our weather we have been having.

Needless to say, EXTREMELY disappointed with the rainfall we got yesterday. .35". ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME???. The HPC was on us with a 1.75 to 2" inch totals all week. SO WHAT THE F**K happened. UGH!!!! Oh well, I guess we wait until the next storm.

And Doug totally correct, we do know everything. lol.

Other than that, a gloomy morning from the woods this morning. Hoping we can squeeze out some more moisture but knowing my luck don't think that a gonna happen. Rats.

Natalie
Quoting 1240. ColdInFL:
Oh no, not again..

Link



Hummmmmm. Yep it's been reported here in NOLA by local mets we've had a much cooler than average July. Sticky for sure but cooler
Good morning. The GFS and CMC are both showing a particularly intense wave rolling off Africa in 7-8 days. The GFS even has a coupled closed isobars after it's been over water for a little while, suggesting it is probably a TD.

0z CMC 192 hours:



6z GFS 186 hours:



While it is possible to track the low across much of the Atlantic on the GFS, it never strengthens any, just staying an open wave for much of the journey. My guess would be a combination of dry air (the biggest factor), fast forward motion, and maybe high initial latitude prevent strengthening. There remains some ensemble support for the idea also so it's at least something to keep an eye on, though anything significant seems unlikely.
We all know if it is warm in the dead of winter it gets massive news coverage. Record cool in the dead of summer won't hardly get mentioned. I wonder why?
I guess nobody uses the EURO anymore. By the way, it develops a tropical storm in the Gulf next week.

xDorian's last gasp continues. But without organization and in the face of shear, this looks to be it.
Quoting 1253. PensacolaDoug:
We all know if it is warm in the dead of winter it gets massive news coverage. Record cool in the dead of summer won't hardly get mentioned. I wonder why?

I know Doug. Northern Illinois just experienced a record cold weekend and not a LICK about it in the news. I suppose if it was this weekend up in Chicago with the world's largest outdoor music festival goin' on Lollapalooza maybe then it would get some attention but still!! Seems a one way street with some don't it!
Quoting 1256. SouthernIllinois:

I know Doug. Northern Illinois just experienced a record cold weekend and not a LICK about it in the news. I suppose if it was this weekend up in Chicago with the world's largest outdoor music festival goin' on Lollapalooza maybe then it would get some attention but still!!


TWC is all over the record the cold, that's all they were talking about this morning before I left for work.

BTW, good morning everyone!
Maybe one more time; look at S.E. Bahamas. Not wishcasting, just saying.
Quoting 1257. 69Viking:


TWC is all over the record the cold, that's all they were talking about this morning before I left for work.

BTW, good morning everyone!

Oh cool. Morning viking! At least I didn't call ya Jared this morning. haha
Dorian won't merge with the ULL and possible become a STS will he? I'd assume not.
Quoting 1261. JrWeathermanFL:
Dorian won't merge with the ULL and possible become a STS will he? I'd assume not.

As long as he don't become no STD....that is subtropical depression...
Quoting 1252. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The GFS and CMC are both showing a particularly intense wave rolling off Africa in 7-8 days. The GFS even has a coupled closed isobars after it's been over water for a little while, suggesting it is probably a TD.

0z CMC 192 hours:



6z GFS 186 hours:



While it is possible to track the low across much of the Atlantic on the GFS, it never strengthens any, just staying an open wave for much of the journey. My guess would be a combination of dry air (the biggest factor), fast forward motion, and maybe high initial latitude prevent strengthening. There remains some ensemble support for the idea also so it's at least something to keep an eye on, though anything significant seems unlikely.
In other words a repeat of Chantal and Dorian.
Quoting 1258. sebastianflorida:
Maybe one more time; look at S.E. Bahamas. Not wishcasting, just saying.


I wouldn't be too surprised, Dorian has been a fighter, and there may be some meager mid level rotation, but I just don't know if there's enough time. If some good outflow begins and the rotation is easily visible, then maybe he'll make it. But conditions are working against him and we're past peak DMAX. It's possible he returns, but it'll be tough.
1266. barbamz
New wave is going to emerge Africa amid SAL outbreak.





Quoting 1248. SouthernIllinois:
Good morning, everyone!! SO GLAD the tropics have been quiet and are STAYING quiet. The way it should be! Early morning on the farm today...lots of harvesting. BUT, thought I would check in and post our weather we have been having.

Needless to say, EXTREMELY disappointed with the rainfall we got yesterday. .35". ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME???. The HPC was on us with a 1.75 to 2" inch totals all week. SO WHAT THE FREAK happened. UGH!!!! Oh well, I guess we wait until the next storm.

And Doug totally correct, we do know everything. lol.

Other than that, a gloomy morning from the woods this morning. Hoping we can squeeze out some more moisture but knowing my luck don't think that a gonna happen. Rats.

Natalie


Bummer you didn't get more rain, I tried to send it from Florida!
Quoting 1254. TheWeatherMan504:
I guess nobody uses the EURO anymore. By the way, it develops a tropical storm in the Gulf next week.


Nah it's still VERY popular but in the doghouse with me. Was spitting out 1.75" or rain ALL week for me and all I got was a puny .35". Euro is on my sh** list this week.
1269. Grothar
Quoting 1267. 69Viking:


Bummer you didn't get more rain, I tried to send it from Florida!

haha! AWWW.....thanks! I know we had that sweet deal with you gettin' my sun and me getting your rain. Did I at least hold out my end of the bargain with you gettin' some sun??? I hope so. lol
1271. 47n91w
On the record cold, many records tied or broken in western WI and MN:

NWS La Crosse write-up

NWS Twin Cities write-up

NWS Duluth didn't write a follow-up... disappointing. There was likely frost across the low-lying pockets of far northern Minnesota.
The blob that wouldn't die. I really didn't expect to wake up to much more than a poof.
1273. Grothar


...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N40W ALONG 14N41W TO 8N38W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE NOAA GOES R SATELLITE SHOWS THE WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY.



morning, took the day off the write a term paper.
have a great day everyone.
p.s. Gro is this a blob???
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO 18N78W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS MOVING W OF AN UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY NOT BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW ATLC WILL ENTER THE SE GULF EARLY THU.
1277. LargoFl
dorian has revived and now is a cat ONE hurricane headed directly for Miami..how many still dont have their hurricane kits made up,enough to survive for 9 days?...how many supplies do you suppose are still in the stores an hour from now?....folks your survival kits should have been made already..its hurricane season.....you've been warned for many days now....its all up to you...you now see how fast something can spring on you..........
1278. VR46L
Quoting 1262. SouthernIllinois:

As long as he don't become no STD....that is subtropical depression...


LMAO!!!

Looks like nothing now

Doesn't look good even in Rainbow

COULD SEE 30% or 40% today with dorian
Quoting 1277. LargoFl:
dorian has revived and now is a cat ONE hurricane headed directly for Miami..how many still dont have their hurricane kits made up,enough to survive for 9 days?...how many supplies do you suppose are still in the stores an hour from now?....folks your survival kits should have been made already..its hurricane season.....you've been warned for many days now....its all up to you...you now see how fast something can spring on you..........


Largo, are you ok this morning? Cat 1 headed to Miami??????
Morning all. Unfortunately the storm that will not die, is not dying. Despite being under intense shear the wave that was Dorian is still managing to generate some heavy, albeit non linear, convection this morning.

Given this I suppose there is still a small chance, very small, that when the wave enters the gulf later this week some kind of development could occur. Right now the wave seems to be in the process of trying to couple with the upper level low, which should be interesting.


Hopefully, the low just continues destroying the wave and nothing is left to enter the gulf.

Because I really want to close the book on this convoluted saga. Its not even on NHC TWO anymore after all. We shall see I suppose.
Quoting 1278. VR46L:


LMAO!!!

Looks like nothing now

Doesn't look good even in Rainbow


Well if it doesn't look good in rainbow then you know there is no hope for it EVER. Not that there was in the first place but ESPECIALLY now. Folks just need to give up the ghost already!! lol
Quoting 1257. 69Viking:


TWC is all over the record the cold, that's all they were talking about this morning before I left for work.

BTW, good morning everyone!



Mentioning it on TWC and on mainstream news coverage during the weather segments is just paying it lip service. It is not the same way they treat unseasonal warmth during the winter.
Quoting 1281. DataNerd:
Morning all. Unfortunately the storm that will not die, is not dying. Despite being under intense shear the wave that was Dorian is still managing to generate some heavy, albeit non linear, convection this morning.

Given this I suppose there is still a small chance, very small, that when the wave enters the gulf later this week some kind of development could occur. Right now the wave seems to be in the process of trying to couple with the upper level low, which should be interesting.


Hopefully, the low just continues destroying the wave and nothing is left to enter the gulf.

Because I really want to close the book on this convoluted saga. Its not even on NHC TWO anymore after all. We shall see I suppose.
could be upgraded to a yellow craton late this morning then maybe 40%
Quoting 1248. SouthernIllinois:
Good morning, everyone!! SO GLAD the tropics have been quiet and are STAYING quiet. The way it should be! Early morning on the farm today...lots of harvesting. BUT, thought I would check in and post our weather we have been having.

Needless to say, EXTREMELY disappointed with the rainfall we got yesterday. .35". ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME???. The HPC was on us with a 1.75 to 2" inch totals all week. SO WHAT THE FREAK happened. UGH!!!! Oh well, I guess we wait until the next storm.

And Doug totally correct, we do know everything. lol.

Other than that, a gloomy morning from the woods this morning. Hoping we can squeeze out some more moisture but knowing my luck don't think that a gonna happen. Rats.

Natalie
Midwest have been really dry since I left Missouri in 2009. I hope you guys have a great harvesting season, as we're having a good one because we got more rain than we need. What do you grow? One of my favorite memories in the area was going to SW Illinois to get apples, pumpkins, and many other food at Eckert's near Belleville.
Those of us still worrying about ex Dorian are probably the ones that are borderline flooded from the record rainfall in July. I would very much like to see it die. We can't take anymore rain here without catastrophic consequences.
Some models had Dorian staying weak untill the Bahamas.
1289. VR46L
Quoting 1287. MisterPerfect:




Nothing to get excited about ...gonna be a long couple of weeks till something interesting ...
Quoting 1286. Kristina40:
Those of us still worrying about ex Dorian are probably the ones that are borderline flooded from the record rainfall in July. I would very much like to see it die. We can't take anymore rain here without catastrophic consequences.


Yep. Got dumped on yesterday afternoon and had to wade through ankle-deep water just to get to my front door.
1291. WoodyFL
Quoting 1277. LargoFl:
dorian has revived and now is a cat ONE hurricane headed directly for Miami..how many still dont have their hurricane kits made up,enough to survive for 9 days?...how many supplies do you suppose are still in the stores an hour from now?....folks your survival kits should have been made already..its hurricane season.....you've been warned for many days now....its all up to you...you now see how fast something can spring on you..........



largo, you are a respected guy here. I read all the stuff you put on here, but that remark is so not funny. you had somebody already think its real. that's not humor, its irresponsible. I can't tell you what to do, but i'd think about it a second and remove it
any possibility ex-Dorian will slide under the ULL & become something?
1293. Grothar
Quoting 1275. Chicklit:
p.s. Gro is this a blob???
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO 18N78W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS MOVING W OF AN UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY NOT BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW ATLC WILL ENTER THE SE GULF EARLY THU.


There are two blobs
Quoting 1253. PensacolaDoug:
We all know if it is warm in the dead of winter it gets massive news coverage. Record cool in the dead of summer won't hardly get mentioned. I wonder why?



That stupid Global Warming. It won't do what it's supposed to do.
Nvm
Quoting 1285. Bluestorm5:
Midwest have been really dry since I left Missouri in 2009. I hope you guys have a great harvesting season, as we're having a good one because we got more rain than we need. What do you grow? One of my favorite memories in the area was going to SW Illinois to get apples, pumpkins, and many other food at Eckert's near Belleville.

With the exception of April 2011 which was nearly 90% above average precipitation levels, we have seen many dry spells. Makes me unhappy! But this year actually has been relatively good I just tend to complain and cry alot when things aren't up to par in the rain department....just the way I am. :)

That's really cool! Those memories will be with you for a LONG time! I grow all kinds of stuff. Just not the conventional soybeans and corn like they grow further north in the central part of the state. Reason is the soil isn't exactly conducive for corn and large acre commercial farming since fragipan soils (claypan, hardpans) are more common down here about 30" deep in the soil that would restrict root expansion for crops like corn. BUT I grow and harvest all kinds of oaks......nearly the 26 that are indigenous to the land along with numerous hickories....shagbark, shellbark, mockernut, pignut, water, etc... PLUS, I mastered the pecan grafting so now I am not so scared to try some apple trees too. Thinking about going the Fuji and Johnathan route since those apples are SO YUMMY!!
Good Morning. Seems like everyone on the same page this am looking east towards Africa and keeping an eye on the models.

A very strong SAL plume in the Central Atlantic this morning which is typical for the Summer months and the peak of the season.

SAL:

Link

It can retard wave development but does not stop Cape Verde storms from forming during the peak of the season. Basically, a very strong and moist ITCZ is the best defense against SAL for any wave seeking to be a contender and many of the waves that do develop into depressions reach favorable conditions when the SAL retreats or, they are so packed with moisture off of the ITCZ that they can fight off the drier air to their North.

Looking towards Africa (loop below) a wave is about to emerge but the ITCZ is currently firing below 10N and not a lot of moisture; also note that there is not too much happening behind that wave for the time being.

Link

My points are that there might be a lull for a few weeks in terms of African wave development but that is totally normal for this time of the year. The "peak" of the season (specifically meaning the Cape Verde season) corresponds with maximum summer/equatorial heating which fires up the wave train, over the African coast, which then moves into the Atlantic via the African Easterly Jet.

We should start to see more waves form and begin to emerge off of Africa in about 2-3 weeks, the ITCZ lift up again towards the 10N line, and sheer dropping considerably in the Central Atlantic. It happens every year, we get a very dry lull with lots of SAL around late-July/early-August, folks start talking about how the season is a bust, and then in a matter of a few days in mid-to-late August, tons of waves start emerging, the ITCZ fires up, and the rainbow loop for the central-Atlantic lights up like a Christmas Tree (also often corresponding with the passage of the MJO through the Central Atlantic).

Patience is the word; Mother Nature does not disappoint in terms of these basic synoptic conditions which define the peak of the season.
although most of the predictors pointed to a very active season, a number of factors have come into play giving an indication of a not too active season. the abundance and frequency of dust associated with the SAL has helped to keep the atmosphere very dry, and also to lower the SST which was up by .05-1.0 centigrade at the official start of the season. The very strong B/H has pushed the ITCZ further south and at the same time limit convection. For activity to increase there has to be a weakening OF the Bermuda high and an upward motion of air in the MDR. Although there has been robust waves come off the African coast the dry sinking air has taken a toll on these waves even reducing them to non producing rain events. it is still a bit early and six weeks from the of the season and one should not drop their guard as the season still has a chance of becoming active
1299. barbamz
Quoting 1278. VR46L:


Doesn't look good even in Rainbow



Hmmm, not so sure. Check out the new maps: Convergence and divergence improved, vorticity too, low shear above the blob and should be lessening in the area.

Link
Wind shear is too storng I dont see any thing fourming for at lest a few weeks
Quoting 1300. Tazmanian:
Wind shear is too storng I dont see any thing fourming for at lest a few weeks

The way I like it. :)

Nat
Quoting 1297. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Seems like everyone on the same page this am looking east towards Africa and keeping an eye on the models.

A very strong SAL plume in the Central Atlantic this morning which is typical for the Summer months and the peak of the season.

SAL:

Link

It can retard wave development but does not stop Cape Verde storms from forming during the peak of the season. Basically, a very strong and moist ITCZ is the best defense against SAL for any wave seeking to be a contender and many of the waves that do develop into depressions reach favorable conditions when the SAL retreats or, they are so packed with moisture off of the ITCZ that they can fight off the drier air to their North.

Looking towards Africa (loop below) a wave is about to emerge but the ITCZ is currently firing below 10N and not a lot of moisture; also note that there is not too much happening behind that wave for the time being.

Link

My points are that there might be a lull for a few weeks in terms of African wave development but that is totally normal for this time of the year. The "peak" of the season (specifically meaning the Cape Verde season) corresponds with maximum summer/equatorial heating which fires up the wave train, over the African coast, which then moves into the Atlantic via the African Easterly Jet.

We should start to see more waves form and begin to emerge off of Africa in about 2-3 weeks, the ITCZ lift up again towards the 10N line, and sheer dropping considerably in the Central Atlantic. It happens every year, we get a very dry lull with lots of SAL around late-July/early-August, folks start talking about how the season is a bust, and then in a matter of a few days in mid-to-late August, tons of waves start emerging, the ITCZ fires up, and the rainbow loop for the central-Atlantic lights up like a Christmas Tree (also often corresponding with the passage of the MJO through the Central Atlantic).

Patience is the word; Mother Nature does not disappoint in terms of these basic synoptic conditions which define the peak of the season.


You said it all.
Quoting 1292. SoFLRoofguy:
any possibility ex-Dorian will slide under the ULL & become something?

Yes. In my wildest dreams I could see that.
1304. LargoFl
Quoting 1291. WoodyFL:



largo, you are a respected guy here. I read all the stuff you put on here, but that remark is so not funny. you had somebody already think its real. that's not humor, its irresponsible. I can't tell you what to do, but i'd think about it a second and remove it
granted it was a test post..but we all know it is hurricane season and a Hurricane CAN and they often do pop up very close to you..and anyone today..who is in miami or anywhere along both coasts of florida who doesnt have their kits made up Already..is very foolish...that was the intent of my post..Get those kits made and your prepared
1305. Grothar
Quoting 1283. PensacolaDoug:



Mentioning it on TWC and on mainstream news coverage during the weather segments is just paying it lip service. It is not the same way they treat unseasonal warmth during the winter.


It has been on CNN (a lengthy report) and on CBS. Also, the Brisbane times had this for a headline.

"2013 shaping up to be one of Australia's hottest years on record"

I guess what they have been talking about having severe weather extremes is really happening.

Be nice now, I've plussed two of your comments this week.
It will be very interesting to see those 5 day TWO's from tomorrow to see what is the thinking by NHC about any future systems that may have the chance to develop.
Some spinning going on near the Turk and Caicos.

1308. GetReal



Just like a cockroach, this thing just will not die, and keeps popping up!
1309. LargoFl
folks need to remember..as soon as the NHC says a Hurricane is headed your way..most items you need to prepare to last 9 dasys or so will vanish from the store in just a few hours..thats even IF you can get Into the store at all with the flood of people.
What happen too 90E
Quoting 1292. SoFLRoofguy:
any possibility ex-Dorian will slide under the ULL & become something?
Longer it hangs out, better the chance. Getting close to the real season.
Quoting 1290. flbeachgirl:


Yep. Got dumped on yesterday afternoon and had to wade through ankle-deep water just to get to my front door.
What part of FL? I am west of Tampa in Dunedin. Howdy neighbors. Yes, it is wet here for sure.
Quoting 1309. LargoFl:
folks need to remember..as soon as the NHC says a Hurricane is headed your way..most items you need to prepare to last 9 dasys or so will vanish from the store in just a few hours..thats even IF you can get Into the store at all with the flood of people.
Agree. Buy stuff that you will use anyway or keep the receipt and return what you don't need later.
One is for certain... The WPAC is about to kick off with 3 systems in a week. Currently we have TS Jebi

84hrs


288hrs
1315. barbamz
Quoting 1307. unknowncomic:
Some spinning going on near the Turk and Caicos.



I agree.

Shear tendency. Check out the maps. They seem to be quite favourable for development in my humble eyes.
Quoting 1312. WarEagle8:
What part of FL? I am west of Tampa in Dunedin. Howdy neighbors. Yes, it is wet here for sure.


I am in Panama City. We've had over 20" in July. :o
Quoting 1309. LargoFl:
folks need to remember..as soon as the NHC says a Hurricane is headed your way..most items you need to prepare to last 9 dasys or so will vanish from the store in just a few hours..thats even IF you can get Into the store at all with the flood of people.


And don't forget a med kit. With all the prepping going on now in the mainstream,(we aren't just crazy nuts anymore) a med kit is cheap and essential. Blowing debris causes all sorts of injuries and a first aid kit can't fix everything. Get a quality med kit like our armed forces carry with blood clot in it. I prefer the powder type, served me well years ago. Just do an internet search for combat med kit, I won't put up a link to my favorite site...not trying to raise business for them, just your awareness
Finally, the bigger issue (regardless of what the actual numbers turn out to be) is the current ridging pattern in the Central Atlantic. As correctly noted by Stormfury below, the very strong Bermuda High is suppressing the ITCZ for the moment. If as the ridging lifts a little bit, along with the ITCZ, but remains as strong, we are not going to see a lot of recurvature from developed waves.

I cannot speak for possible Conus Trofs and their potential timing which could steer a storm, North of Puero Rico, away from the US Coast, but the current A-B high ridging would send any Atlantic storms right into the Antilles and Caribbean.

A potentially devastating season for the Caribbean and points beyond (Florida and the Gulf) in a few weeks if the right storm comes along; this is a hallmark of storm trajectories during Neutral ENSO seasons.
Quoting 1312. WarEagle8:
What part of FL? I am west of Tampa in Dunedin. Howdy neighbors. Yes, it is wet here for sure.
Good morning. My Dad lives in Dunedin and just a few short weeks ago he said you were hurting for some rain so I guess this is a real blessing.
Quoting 1316. Kristina40:


I am in Panama City. We've had over 20" in July. :o

That's insane Kristina!!
@1310:
I'm assuming interaction with Gil
Quoting Tazmanian:
What happen too 90E


It went Poof!!!!!

Quoting 1309. LargoFl:
folks need to remember..as soon as the NHC says a Hurricane is headed your way..most items you need to prepare to last 9 dasys or so will vanish from the store in just a few hours..thats even IF you can get Into the store at all with the flood of people.


Three days before Charley hit our local Home Depot was sold out of plywood. We had to stand in line beginning at 3am for two days to be first in line to wait for a truck to get there with more plywood and all of it was gone within 20 minutes (we were limited to 5 sheets per person). Probably 100 people in line left with nothing. I'll never do that again! My motto is "STAY prepared!"
x91L is trying to merge with a ULL if they do that sucessfully as it enters the warm gulf it may try something as SST are quite warm in there. Currently a small area of vorticity is located just south of the ULL with is east Miami and north of the Central Bahamas. Otherwise, there is no other candidate for TC development for the next few days. But the last GFS and CMC is finally starting to pick up on some CV waves trying to close off by August 8th. I firmly believe the next 8-10 days of August will be quite but once the High retreat over the Azores and MJO comes back by the 2nd week of August 6-10th then we will likely see pressures lower across the MDR and Caribbean.
1325. GetReal



Remnants now due south of the ULL, that does seem to have weaken.
1326. ARiot
TN Valley had some quick, heavy storms blast through earlier on what I think is the front edge of the eastern part of the hot dome of high pressure.

We've been really lucky this summer. Tons of rain and no real scorchers (unless you count the heat index and warmer than average night temps here and there)

On the Hurricane season topic, I'm going to assume that the train starts rolling across the Atlantic by 18/19 August.

We're due. My friends on the Atlantic coast (say from Savannah to the DC area) need to pay attention like my friends on the Gulf and in Florida have been doing.
Quoting 1312. WarEagle8:
What part of FL? I am west of Tampa in Dunedin. Howdy neighbors. Yes, it is wet here for sure.


Longboat Key. And howdy back, neighbor!
Quoting 1307. unknowncomic:
Some spinning going on near the Turk and Caicos.



Def looking like even more booming thunder for CRSailor today. Hope hunkered down!

Raining raining today...though was some blue sky when I got up, so hung the laundry out on the line oops. Have just left it, get an extra rain wash LOL I like rain this time of year though, as since warm enough to have windows open, can enjoy listening to it, can't do that in winter so much




Don't know how accurate this is, but one heck of a strong HP in the Atlantic 10 days from now.



Quoting 1326. ARiot:
TN Valley had some quick, heavy storms blast through earlier on what I think is the front edge of the eastern part of the hot dome of high pressure.

We've been really lucky this summer. Tons of rain and no real scorchers (unless you count the heat index and warmer than average night temps here and there)

On the Hurricane season topic, I'm going to assume that the train starts rolling across the Atlantic by 18/19 August.

We're due. My friends on the Atlantic coast (say from Savannah to the DC area) need to pay attention like my friends on the Gulf and in Florida have been doing.

This is Texas's year for the storm.
Good Morning!

6:34 am (10:34 GMT)

Honey bees gather pollen from a cactus flower before the sun comes up and causes the bloom to close. Each of the flowers only open once.

Tennis anyone?

Dexter has an uncanny knack for finding tennis balls. They're seldom in good condition, and this one was exceptionally nasty.
Quoting 1320. SouthernIllinois:

That's insane Kristina!!
Indeed, it is. One area at the beach got 19" just on the 3rd/4th of July. The flooding was the worst I've seen here. I think we had 11 dry days in July. The rest of them, it rained.
Quoting 1253. PensacolaDoug:
We all know if it is warm in the dead of winter it gets massive news coverage. Record cool in the dead of summer won't hardly get mentioned. I wonder why?


The liberals won't stand for it!
1334. VR46L
Quoting 1329. unknowncomic:
Don't know how accurate this is, but one heck of a strong HP in the Atlantic 10 days from now.





Its probably the worst set up imaginable that high with the last ridge where it is ...gulp ... Good job SAL will be thick ... but is that A depression in the Gulf....
I'm not sure why I keep seeing that the record cold temps are not being mentioned. It's been all over CNN. They had a story on it late last week.
144hrs off the coast of Africa...



204hrs and it hasn't moved much.

1337. barbamz
Weak Steering in the Bahamas, so this system really isn't going to move anywhere fast. Convection might wane later in the day, but the cycle will continue
1339. Grothar
Doug, you're OK. I don't care what anybody else says.
:)
Quoting 1332. Kristina40:
Indeed, it is. One area at the beach got 19" just on the 3rd/4th of July. The flooding was the worst I've seen here. I think we had 11 dry days in July. The rest of them, it rained.

That is crazy!! Now I LOVE my rain and LOTS of it, but I'll admit this is probably too much for even me. Well you need your sun like Texas needs it's rain fo sure!
Quoting 1331. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:34 am (10:34 GMT)

Honey bees gather pollen from a cactus flower before the sun comes up and causes the bloom to close. Each of the flowers only open once.

Tennis anyone?

Dexter has an uncanny knack for finding tennis balls. They're seldom in good condition, and this one was exceptionally nasty.

Dex!! ~ You TOTALLY got to meet my brother's dog Brownie. She's blind but can STILL sniff out an old torn and frayed stinky tennis ball anywhere!! haha. :)

Wow what a pick of the cactus flower. Was not aware of that cultivar....it's probably just like the Aloe Vera plant and doesn't need much water or care! LOVE that!! Great shot Mik! :)
Quoting 1335. Kristina40:
I'm not sure why I keep seeing that the record cold temps are not being mentioned. It's been all over CNN. They had a story on it late last week.
We apparently have some here with selective hearing. :) The truth is, the cold temps here have been all over the news far more than the deadly record breaking heat wave in China and the other ongoing heat event in Europe (the seventh this year).
Quoting 1343. Neapolitan:
We apparently have some here with selective hearing. :) The truth is, the cold temps here have been all over the news far more than the deadly record breaking heat wave in China and the other ongoing heat event in Europe (the seventh this year).


Thanks, I thought perhaps I had imagine it. :D
FINALLY!!! A NICE CLEAR DAY WITH BIG CBs!!!!!

Out for the day welli beon buti be in hiding mod wake me up when we get are next storm
Quoting 1336. AussieStorm:
144hrs off the coast of Africa...



204hrs and it hasn't moved much.

What is that in the GOM? Is that a tropical intity?
Good Morning/Evening

The XDorian satellite image link (2nd to last in the Post) is broken.

Hope everyone is doing well and nobody got hit by exploding propane canisters, (blue rino, Tavares Florida).

We have had record rains (likely the 4th wettest in North Central Florida for July) and Lake County Lakes have eked up to minimum desirable levels (not Apopka, it needs a foot or two more). Perhaps Dorian's remains will bring some of that.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 75 degrees with a dewpoint of 73, a little improved from yesterday. There were spots of raindrops on my deck when I brought in the dogs, but no real rain. Next expected rain is next Tuesday and that's a 20% chance.

I thought when I got up Dorian's remnants would be torn apart, yet his remains are still there. Good thing he never did develop.

Breakfast's on the sideboard with CW's. With the exception of one all others are made with greek yogurt, egg whites, etc., for a healthier breakfast this morning: Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon,
Scrambled Egg Pockets, cranberry coffee cake, whole wheat coffee cake muffins, whole wheat butternut waffles with fruit sauce, cheesy grits and shrimp, greek yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 1334. VR46L:


Its probably the worst set up imaginable that high with the last ridge where it is ...gulp ... Good job SAL will be thick ... but is that A depression in the Gulf....

Like thick SAL....keeps the chances of developing storms down. *Gulp Gulp* Another Bloody Mary anyone. :)
Still need to watch our eX-Dorian.....the butt-head just keeps spitting out his mouth it seems. HEHEHEHE
1352. VR46L
Quoting 1343. Neapolitan:
We apparently have some here with selective hearing. :) The truth is, the cold temps here have been all over the news far more than the deadly record breaking heat wave in China and the other ongoing heat event in Europe (the seventh this year).



Parts of Europe had been so fed up of the bad weather that they rejoiced at the 3 week of great weather ... back to the norm now under 20°C and raining everyday

sigh
Quoting 1349. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 75 degrees with a dewpoint of 73, a little improved from yesterday. There were spots of raindrops on my deck when I brought in the dogs, but no real rain. Next expected rain is next Tuesday and that's a 20% chance.

I thought when I got up Dorian's remnants would be torn apart, yet his remains are still there. Good thing he never did develop.

Breakfast's on the sideboard with CW's. With the exception of one all others are made with greek yogurt, egg whites, etc., for a healthier breakfast this morning: Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon,
Scrambled Egg Pockets, cranberry coffee cake, whole wheat coffee cake muffins, whole wheat butternut waffles with fruit sauce, cheesy grits and shrimp, greek yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!

Oh my JUST in time as I just served up a fresh glass of apple cider I got from my neighbor. Yes....she is 1/2 down the road but still my neighbor. haha. :)

Blueberry muffin and chessy grits and shrimp for me pretty please........YUM. Ains you ROCK!! You got the best selection for every appetite and every kind of eater (....vegetarian, vegan, meatlover, or picky like Patrap. nah j/k. :)

73 dewpoint sticky sticky. You can cut that air with a knife like Aussie said yesterday!

THANKS for the grub!!!

Nat
1354. VR46L
Quoting 1350. SouthernIllinois:

Like thick SAL....keeps the chances of developing storms down. *Gulp Gulp* Another Bloody Mary anyone. :)


Nat Is it 8.20 in the morning??? LMAO !!!

Still partying from last night? or is it the hair of the dog ?

Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

...low-level rotation, inflows ? ? ? ? ?



Quoting 1354. VR46L:


Nat Is it 8.20 in the morning??? LMAO !!!

Still partying from last night? or is it the hair of the dog ?


LOL. No NOT still partying from last nite silly! Today is Wednesday and my bloody Mary day. Only 1 I promise ya!! But apple cider time now!!

Hair of the dog. Hilarious!! I like that one....gonnna use that one w/ my friends! :)
Well, thought for today thinking Ex-D makes one more run for it today. I won't bring the K word into it but it's approaching the interesting part of the Bahamas.
Quoting 1351. TampaSpin:
Still need to watch our eX-Dorian.....the butt-head just keeps spitting out his mouth it seems. HEHEHEHE


This is the time period I have had my eye on forecast wise all week.

"The remains" are now moving through the zone south and west of the main high pressure nose of the ridge, which is being encroached on by the SE trough.

I have said all along that subsidence and high surface pressures were the killer negative on 'his' trip across the ATL. Now the environmental pressures will be a bit more condusive to allowing a developing surface low to exist and we still see some turning through the mid levels; The question worth all the points? It is too little, too late???
Quoting 1355. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

...low-level rotation, inflows ? ? ? ? ?





Yea I seen that...LIKE what the Heck...its gotta be just temporary.
1360. SLU
Quoting 1357. gordydunnot:
Well, thought for today thinking Ex-D makes one more run for it today. I won't bring the K word into it but it's approaching the interesting part of the Bahamas.


what is the K word?








just kidding...yeah never write anything off in that area
1362. VR46L
Quoting 1355. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

...low-level rotation, inflows ? ? ? ? ?





Good Morning W'GEEK Yourself,

You aren't resurrecting Tenacious D are you ?
Quoting 1342. SouthernIllinois:

Dex!! ~ You TOTALLY got to meet my brother's dog Brownie. She's blind but can STILL sniff out an old torn and frayed stinky tennis ball anywhere!! haha. :)

Wow what a pick of the cactus flower. Was not aware of that cultivar....it's probably just like the Aloe Vera plant and doesn't need much water or care! LOVE that!! Great shot Mik! :)


I think that is night blooming cereus cactus. They can be spectacular if you find old growth.

We have several cactus with edible fruit in Florida an apple cactus, and prickly pear. I have not tasted the apple one. Prickly pear I have.. didn't care for it as was.

However, for Christmas supper on Lake Worth, 1873, at Charlie Moore's homestead the menu was roasted possum banked in onion and sweet potato, Grandma's Dutch oven biscuits, Captain Burnham's (of Canaveral Lighthouse fame) famous cane syrup and prickly pear pie, for dessert. Great Great Grandma said the possum was okay, but she would prefer turkey.
Quoting 1358. seminolesfan:


This is the time period I have had my eye on forecast wise all week.

"The remains" are now moving through the zone south and west of the main high pressure nose of the ridge, which is being encroached on by the SE trough.

I have said all along that subsidence and high surface pressures were the killer negative on 'his' trip across the ATL. Now the environmental pressures will be a bit more condusive to allowing a developing surface low to exist and we still see some turning through the mid levels; The question worth all the points? It is too little, too late???


The Shear Forecast is forecast to drop to a reasonable rate to under 15kts in most areas upcoming. Not sure enough is left to make a difference.....but we all know it does not take much to get going in the GOM!

ANALYSIS

+24HR

+48HR


Can see the ridge nose retreating to the east here in the Euro Ens...
Quoting 1331. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:34 am (10:34 GMT)

Honey bees gather pollen from a cactus flower before the sun comes up and causes the bloom to close. Each of the flowers only open once.

Tennis anyone?

Dexter has an uncanny knack for finding tennis balls. They're seldom in good condition, and this one was exceptionally nasty.
He is really cute.He looks sweet,He should meet my Lila she is really playful.
Night Blooming Cirrus (Peniocereus) does something similar, but I think it needs a moth or a bat. Folks have parties around the blooms sometimes. They usually surprise me as I leave for work in the early dawn hours with their diaphanous white pie plate blooms. I like them better than day lilies that bloom after I leave and are a twisted wad of goo by the time I get home.

Indian Riv, I didn't see your post till after I posted (edit)I think you are correct. Mine is just a different kind with a cloud of anthers in the middle instead of a ring, and long spidery petals.
1369. Grothar
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.

Offshore Waters Forecast (Caribbean/SW Atlantic)

000
FZNT23 KNHC 310830
OFFNT3

AMZ101-312100-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
430 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 27N
FRI THROUGH SUN. NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS WILL REACH S FLORIDA TONIGHT.


FORECASTER MUNDELL

Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.



Groth anytime you got a ball looking like that...it is conducive to pressure falls. Something to watch with 1 eye open for sure.
1372. Grothar
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.



those who attack best deserve their crow served cold.

Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.




Sliding underneath the ULL was always a possible but unusual scenario. Not there yet, but maybe starting. However, there is still the continue of considerable subsidence, and until that environment changes I don't expect anything. However, the conditions appear to be slowly changing. We shall see. ;)
1375. Grothar
Quoting 1371. TampaSpin:


Groth anytime you got a ball looking like that...it is conducive to pressure falls. Something to watch with 1 eye open for sure.


Yes, as I get older, I become more aware of that.
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.



See my couple posts above, Gro. :)

Also showing turning from 850mb all the way through 200mb on the CIMSS Vort maps; Not well stacked or aligned, but all in the same 'general' area.
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.



And it is a stunning round shaped blob.
1378. VR46L
Quoting 1365. seminolesfan:
ANALYSIS

+24HR

+48HR


Can see the ridge nose retreating to the east here in the Euro Ens...


That map at 48hrs Sigh

Wet and cool pattern set up for my weather Yuk ...Gonna feel extra horrible after getting used to a bit of dry and hot weather
Quoting 1374. moonlightcowboy:



Sliding underneath the ULL was always a possible but unusual scenario. Not there yet, but maybe starting. However, there is still the continue of considerable subsidence, and until that environment changes I don't expect anything. However, the conditions appear to be slowly changing. We shall see. ;)


We have seen sliding under an ULL before.....those conditions are great for Development of small systems to develop as shear is low....Not very good for things to grow big tho.
1380. Grothar
Quoting 1374. moonlightcowboy:



Sliding underneath the ULL was always a possible but unusual scenario. Not there yet, but maybe starting. However, there is still the continue of considerable subsidence, and until that environment changes I don't expect anything. However, the conditions appear to be slowly changing. We shall see. ;)


Seems to me, you and I and a few others were watching something similar the other night. I have to go to the VA today, so I will be gone quite awhile. Please take care of my blob.
1381. etxwx
Good morning, day and evening to all. It's been a pretty "mild" summer here in East Texas - compared to a couple years ago at least. More normal. We are getting to the time where I expect upper 90's to 100's but at least the hot weather didn't start in June. :-)

The mild weather has brought out our yard snake in the evening. (those with Ophidiophobia may want to look away....)

This is a rat snake. (likely Elaphe obsoleta) Non-poisonous, but they will strike and grab you if harassed. Even though they don't have fangs, they do have abrasive plates in their jaws that can scratch and abrade skin.


Our bull became curious about all the activity with the camera and came over to check it out. He sniffed the snake and the snake tried to give him a little peck on the nose. It was interesting to see a 1500lb animal jump back that fast. With its attempts at affection soundly rejected, the snake then left in a huff. (note the dark object near the snake is just a piece of wood)
Bastardi mentioned that the upper low could warm and head west with possible development....


Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.

Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.

Quoting 1307. unknowncomic:
Some spinning going on near the Turk and Caicos.



It looks like the wave axis of xDorian has compressed. Anybody have any idea what we're looking at here?
1385. VR46L
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.



Gro Did I attack you? ... I gave up on him redeveloping yesterday afternoon, broke me to do it, have a bit of affection for the little guy that had been written off so often ... I don't know if he can sustain it but it would be a black eye to all who wrote off his ever move ...
1369. Grothar 9:35 AM EDT on July 31, 2013

The most favorable region for development, all along, was in the Bahamas/North of PR-Hispanola. The problem is that the ULL never moved out of the way and put the breaks on development of the weak storm/now wave.

These remnants are persistent but only baroclinic convection caused by the interaction between the ULL and Trof they are embedded in; that ULL is like a brick wall:

Link
1387. Grothar
Quoting 1376. seminolesfan:


See my couple posts above, Gro. :)

Also showing turning from 850mb all the way through 200mb on the CIMSS Vort maps; Not well stacked or aligned, but all in the same 'general' area.


Yes, I've seen your posts the past few days also mentioning this. There were a few others, too. I had some frozen crow put away just in case. If this does develop, and you are a good boy, I will let you cook some for the downcasters. :)

Quoting 1371. TampaSpin:


Groth anytime you got a ball looking like that...it is conducive to pressure falls. Something to watch with 1 eye open for sure.


It unexpectedly ULL remained stationary and never really moved away like I though it would thus shearing the system. But if it can slip under the ULL later today or tomorrow; then as it enters the Gulf this weekend it may try to spin up or even before. High pressure will retreat in the next 24 hours thus allowing pressures to lower where convection is located. I hate to bring up the ''K'' but it formed ENE of Miami before moving WSW and deepen rapidly. So you always keep an eye.
1389. Grothar
Quoting 1385. VR46L:


Gro Did I attack you? ... I gave up on him redeveloping yesterday afternoon broke me to do it have a bit of affection for the little guy that had been written off so often ... I don't know if he can sustain it but it would be a black eye to all who wrote off his ever move ...


Oh, no. You and I go way too far back for that. It's just that I felt sorry for the little blob.
Quoting 1381. etxwx:
Good morning, day and evening to all. It's been a pretty "mild" summer here in East Texas - compared to a couple years ago at least. More normal. We are getting to the time where I expect upper 90's to 100's but at least the hot weather didn't start in June. :-)

The mild weather has brought out our yard snake in the evening. (those with Ophidiophobia may want to look away....)

This is a rat snake. (likely Elaphe obsoleta) Non-poisonous, but they will strike and grab you if harassed. Even though they don't have fangs, they do have abrasive plates in their jaws that can scratch and abrade skin.


Our bull became curious about all the activity with the camera and come over to check it out. He sniffed the snake and the snake tried to give him a little peck on the nose. It was interesting to see a 1500lb animal jump back that fast. With its attempts at affection soundly rejected, the snake then left in a huff. (note the dark object near the snake is just a piece of wood)

VERY nice pics! :-) I HATE snakes but must give credit where credit is due. That thing is a beauty.
Quoting 1384. redwagon:


It looks like the wave axis of xDorian has compressed. Anybody have any idea what we're looking at here?



Guys. Wind shear is too storng nothing. Is going too happen in that area go out. And In joy. Your day And stop. Acting like some is going. To fourm. In the face. Of. 30kt of shear
1392. Grothar
Quoting 1388. Hurricanes305:


It unexpectedly ULL remained stationary and never really moved away like I though it would thus shearing the system. But if it can slip under the ULL later today or tomorrow; then as it enters the Gulf this weekend it may try to spin up or even before. High pressure will retreat in the next 24 hours thus allowing pressures to lower where convection is located. I hate to bring up the ''K'' but it formed ENE of Miami before moving WSW and deepen rapidly. So you always keep an eye.


Hey, 305, I wondered if you were coming on. so what do you think of our blob today? Chicklit is playing hookey today, so she can watch this with us all.
Quoting 1381. etxwx:
Good morning, day and evening to all. It's been a pretty "mild" summer here in East Texas - compared to a couple years ago at least. More normal. We are getting to the time where I expect upper 90's to 100's but at least the hot weather didn't start in June. :-)

The mild weather has brought out our yard snake in the evening. (those with Ophidiophobia may want to look away....)

This is a rat snake. (likely Elaphe obsoleta) Non-poisonous, but they will strike and grab you if harassed. Even though they don't have fangs, they do have abrasive plates in their jaws that can scratch and abrade skin.


Our bull became curious about all the activity with the camera and come over to check it out. He sniffed the snake and the snake tried to give him a little peck on the nose. It was interesting to see a 1500lb animal jump back that fast. With its attempts at affection soundly rejected, the snake then left in a huff. (note the dark object near the snake is just a piece of wood)


Cute little thang! Be sweet to him, he is your employee after all, taking care of things your wife does NOT want in the house.
1394. Grothar
Quoting 1377. StormPro:


And it is a stunning round shaped blob.



Thank you.
Quoting 1363. indianrivguy:


I think that is night blooming cereus cactus. They can be spectacular if you find old growth.

We have several cactus with edible fruit in Florida an apple cactus, and prickly pear. I have not tasted the apple one. Prickly pear I have.. didn't care for it as was.

However, for Christmas supper on Lake Worth, 1873, at Charlie Moore's homestead the menu was roasted possum banked in onion and sweet potato, Grandma's Dutch oven biscuits, Captain Burnham's (of Canaveral Lighthouse fame) famous cane syrup and prickly pear pie, for dessert. Great Great Grandma said the possum was okay, but she would prefer turkey.

Thank you Indian River Guy! Going to research that and possibly add it to my collection of plants!
Quoting 1270. SouthernIllinois:

haha! AWWW.....thanks! I know we had that sweet deal with you gettin' my sun and me getting your rain. Did I at least hold out my end of the bargain with you gettin' some sun??? I hope so. lol


Wow, I went away to read up on sports news and got way behind. Didn't think it would be so active without anything tropical to talk about! We've made it two days now with sunny weather and no rain, I'm hoping today is day three!
Quoting 1375. Grothar:


Yes, as I get older, I become more aware of that.


explains your epic awareness...
Oh, and take your bull to a herpetology class. He needs to prove he can ID his snakes before he goes sniffin at them :)
It's hump day.... and there's no rain in sight for a full week here in SE TX. Whooooopeeeeeeee!
Quoting 1380. Grothar:


Seems to me, you and I and a few others were watching something similar the other night. I have to go to the VA today, so I will be gone quite awhile. Please take care of my blob.


Good luck Gro.
Gotta run...everyone have a great day! Grothar don't forget your NAPS....you get cranky without them....LOL...see ya!
1402. VR46L
Quoting 1399. RitaEvac:
It's hump day.... and there's no rain in sight for a full week here in SE TX. Whooooopeeeeeeee!


I feel for ya ... You can have mine ...or I am Guessing Floridas ..
1403. etxwx
Quoting 1390. SouthernIllinois:

VERY nice pics! :-) I HATE snakes but must give credit where credit is due. That is a beauty.


Thanks! He did pose for me very nicely - I think he was enjoying the nice weather too. We have several kinds of snakes here, some poisonous. The young, smallish rat snakes like this are easily identifiable by their markings and slimmer shape. Water moccasins (poisonous)can have similar markings but are thicker and have much broader heads. I would not have been snapping pics like that of a water moccasin for sure!

And back to the weather for this part of Texas...

Quoting 1381. etxwx:
Good morning, day and evening to all. It's been a pretty "mild" summer here in East Texas - compared to a couple years ago at least. More normal. We are getting to the time where I expect upper 90's to 100's but at least the hot weather didn't start in June. :-)

The mild weather has brought out our yard snake in the evening. (those with Ophidiophobia may want to look away....)

This is a rat snake. (likely Elaphe obsoleta) Non-poisonous, but they will strike and grab you if harassed. Even though they don't have fangs, they do have abrasive plates in their jaws that can scratch and abrade skin.


Our bull became curious about all the activity with the camera and come over to check it out. He sniffed the snake and the snake tried to give him a little peck on the nose. It was interesting to see a 1500lb animal jump back that fast. With its attempts at affection soundly rejected, the snake then left in a huff. (note the dark object near the snake is just a piece of wood)


Purty snake. Our dog found one under the deck Monday, so we went to get it so she'd calm down. It was also a rat snake, about 2.5 feet in length. It's mid-section was a bit bloated, so we assumed he had just ate something from under the house...like a mouse or somethin. Good to have a few snakes around :)
Record low last night not too far from me

Statement as of 05:34 PM EDT on July 30, 2013


... Record low temperature set at Tri-Cities Airport...

A record low temperature of 56 degrees was set at Tri-Cities Airport today.
This breaks the old record of 57 set in 1994.



Morning everyone!
Quoting 1391. Tazmanian:



Guys. Wind shear is too storng nothing. Is going too happen in that area go out. And In joy. Your day And stop. Acting like some is going. To fourm. In the face. Of. 30kt of shear


How's that? Take a day off from DORIAN? I got a lake riding on this, dude. Until I wake up to clear blue sea, I'm as addicted as I am to the Walking Dead. Or Duck Dynasty.
1408. SLU
The CFS calls for a very active August with stronger than normal ridging.

1410. VR46L
Quoting 1408. SLU:
The CFS calls for a very active August with stronger than normal ridging.



They are good for entertainment when the GFS lets us down ....
Quoting 1363. indianrivguy:


I think that is night blooming cereus cactus. They can be spectacular if you find old growth.

We have several cactus with edible fruit in Florida an apple cactus, and prickly pear. I have not tasted the apple one. Prickly pear I have.. didn't care for it as was.

However, for Christmas supper on Lake Worth, 1873, at Charlie Moore's homestead the menu was roasted possum banked in onion and sweet potato, Grandma's Dutch oven biscuits, Captain Burnham's (of Canaveral Lighthouse fame) famous cane syrup and prickly pear pie, for dessert. Great Great Grandma said the possum was okay, but she would prefer turkey.


My friend who used to have the coffee house in San Diego, he made gelato on site and once made prickly pear gelato, was fab! though have had it on it's own, and wasn't as impressed!

At the moment, looks like that ex-Dorian blob and the ULL are going their seperate ways, hope that continues....though, then the worry of going through the straits and towards GOM, just hope conditions don't get better at some point, as it looks to be having plenty of time to wait, needs to move along, shear away, something!
Wow.
Good morning all. I've been hiding in the shadows here for a long time. I don't really know squat about weather, but am fascinated with it nonetheless. I have been following Dorian since it was born. There is something about Dorian that has kept me on edge for days. My gut just keeps telling me not to take my eyes off it until there's nothing at all left of it. This morning I'm feeling really nervous about it. I heard the "K" word mentioned & that of course got my attention. I live on the MS coast & stayed during that monster. I know that none of us in all honesty can really be sure what can happen with these systems, but do you guys think it possibe that exD may regenerate & get into the Gulf? Any input is greatly appreciated. I learn so much here & really have come to value some of your opinions. Thanks all & everyone have a great day!
Quoting 1392. Grothar:


Hey, 305, I wondered if you were coming on. so what do you think of our blob today? Chicklit is playing hookey today, so she can watch this with us all.


Hey Gro, sorry for the the late response here is what I think. The interaction between the ULL and the remnants is causing some added diffluent flow allowing for some convection to flare up. However there is vorticity at 850mb and 700mb at the surface



The midlevel vort is still very much alive and actually looks better at the 500mb level than when it tried to develop on Monday.



It very close to the ULL so its very possible that it wraps it up in its circulation



The fact that the ULL never quite moved on but is trying to stack up with the vorticity from the 200mb to the surface means it needs to watch. If this was to happen it will that another 24-36 hours.

Lower convergence suggest the convection is not entirely baroclinic though.



It will need plenty of lower convergence and convective heat in order to warm up the ULL but it will be easier to do so then previous attempts earlier in the season as the upper low is quite weak at the moment.

The Atlantic High is beginning its retreat back towards to Azores and pressures will lower as a result.

Here is the MSLP by 24 hours notice lower pressure starting to showing up



For now if it makes it into gulf where SST is quite warm I would not be surprise to see it develop or even before it cross Southern Florida. But it may never get fully stack or produce the latent heat need to get something tropical. One thing is for sure xDorian continues to be a headache even to this hour :)
1416. VR46L
Quoting 1412. SPLbeater:
Wow.


Gonna Get Dusty

Dust forecast


1417. Kumo
Quoting 1407. redwagon:


How's that? Take a day off from DORIAN? I got a lake riding on this, dude. Until I wake up to clear blue sea, I'm as addicted as I am to the Walking Dead. Or Duck Dynasty.


Love that show. I need to get around to reading Phil's book. Looks like I'll have plenty of opportunity over the next couple of weeks while the Tropics are quiet.
1418. zampaz
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.


Consider the source
I watch the teacher Grothar
and ignore the rest.
-z
(Today's standard form shall be haiku.)
1419. K8eCane
Quoting 1403. etxwx:


Thanks! He did pose for me very nicely - I think he was enjoying the nice weather too. We have several kinds of snakes here, some poisonous. The young, smallish rat snakes like this are easily identifiable by their markings and slimmer shape. Water moccasins (poisonous)can have similar markings but are thicker and have much broader heads. I would not have been snapping pics like that of a water moccasin for sure!

And back to the weather for this part of Texas...




Morning everybody! I did some research, because my fear of snakes ( moccasins because of several sightings and drainage ditch behind my house) was keeping me out of my back yard. Moccasins are poisonous for sure but nowadays people rarely die from a bite. Get medical assistance asap of course. But I found out when moccasins bite, they USUALLY only inject a small amount of venom, or none at all. The one to panic over are the rattlers. JK panicking is not good, but they are much worse than a moccasin bite
Quoting 1413. gulfportbrees:
Good morning all. I've been hiding in the shadows here for a long time. I don't really know squat about weather, but am fascinated with it nonetheless. I have been following Dorian since it was born. There is something about Dorian that has kept me on edge for days. My gut just keeps telling me not to take my eyes off it until there's nothing at all left of it. This morning I'm feeling really nervous about it. I heard the "K" word mentioned & that of course got my attention. I live on the MS coast & stayed during that monster. I know that none of us in all honesty can really be sure what can happen with these systems, but do you guys think it possibe that exD may regenerate & get into the Gulf? Any input is greatly appreciated. I learn so much here & really have come to value some of your opinions. Thanks all & everyone have a great day!


Thanks for joining us, and welcome!
Re: #1381 --- wish you could send a couple of those rat snakes my way! With all the mangoes coming ripe at once, I see rats out sometimes even in broad daylight this summer.

It's so funny: All my relatives (who do not live in Florida, BTW) imagine me living in a place where giant pythons regularly slither into our homes, eat our pets, etc. And every time I see a rat, or my friends tell me that raccoons just stole every ripe mango from their tree last night, I think, "where's my snake??!!" LOL
1422. K8eCane
Grothar I wasn't here much yesterday, but I hope you know I for one very much appreciate your take on things. Ignore the mean people.
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.



I sympathize Grothar.

I tuned in this AM to comment on just that very thing. I looked at the Cab-Sat-Loop and thought; Gee that's a nice looking post Dorian Blob right there.

...but I was concerned about using the 'Blob' word without official Grothar support. Then in relief I find your post using the designation "Blob", so now I feel much better about saying it myself. So here goes...

Hey everyone, Good morning! That's a nice Looking Post Dorian Blobster heading for the GOM. But you can all tell Taz that he saw it first, Okay?
Quoting 1377. StormPro:


And it is a stunning round shaped blob.


Looks like that blob is just hanging out over Turks and Caicos. One of my favorite places. I'm pulling out my red crayon and giving this blob 90% on making me jealous.
Quoting 1406. RitaEvac:

I feel for ya and the rest of you guys down there in the Lone Star State. I really do. I TOTALLY got the shaft yesterday with the puny .35" I got after the models (especially the EURO) had me pegged for at least 1.75" all week! Ugh!! But that is nothing compared to you guys. Man I really HOPE that pattern changes for y'all!!!!



It's my last day of work then it's home sweet home for 14 days. It's been a hot 2 weeks out here in the GOM. There isn't a breath of wind at my location today and extremely humid.
Quoting 1416. VR46L:


Gonna Get Dusty

Dust forecast




On TWC they were discussing how important African dust is to the Amazon. It replenishes lost minerals,etc in the soils.
Quoting 1418. zampaz:

Consider the source
I watch the teacher Grothar
and ignore the rest.
-z
(Today's standard form shall be haiku.)

Sup Z! :) I think you should patent that saying. "I watch the teacher Grothar and ignore the rest"

Has a great ring to it and might go down as one of the greats. Ya never know....might be on to something!!

Nat
Quoting 1426. HimacaneBrees:



It's my last day of work then it's home sweet home for 14 days. It's been a hot 2 weeks out here in the GOM. There isn't a breath of wind at my location today and extremely humid.


you are on a rig?
WV loop showing the ULL slowly starting to absorb some of that convection and wrap it around it. If the process continues it will take another 24-36 hours to complete if it continues at this rate. But would be enough for development though as it would need convection for that.

Quoting 1427. Sfloridacat5:


On TWC they were discussing how important African dust is to the Amazon. It replenishes lost minerals,etc in the soils.


that is true. I remember that from my ecology classes.
Quoting 1429. indianrivguy:


you are on a rig?


Yes.
Quoting 1425. SouthernIllinois:

I feel for ya and the rest of you guys down there in the Lone Star State. I really do. I TOTALLY got the shaft yesterday with the puny .35" I got after the models (especially the EURO) had me pegged for at least 1.75" all week! Ugh!! But that is nothing compared to you guys. Man I really HOPE that pattern changes for you guys!!!!


That's the kind of rains I get right there, doesn't do anything and dries out in 24 hrs time with the beating summer sun. Everyone says it's better than nothing, it IS NOTHING! it's not penetrating the ground. Detention ponds, are down 3 or so feet and not budging, there's now an illusion going on, get 0.41" for example on Saturday and grass greens up but the situation is silently getting worse.
Quoting 1432. HimacaneBrees:


Yes.


thank you for your hard work to keep this country running.
Quoting 1403. etxwx:


Thanks! He did pose for me very nicely - I think he was enjoying the nice weather too. We have several kinds of snakes here, some poisonous. The young, smallish rat snakes like this are easily identifiable by their markings and slimmer shape. Water moccasins (poisonous)can have similar markings but are thicker and have much broader heads. I would not have been snapping pics like that of a water moccasin for sure!

And back to the weather for this part of Texas...


Yes off the snake topic and back to weather sounds okay with me...no complaints! j/k haha

Insane! Rain please visit Texas!!
It looks like he is building his convection back later in the morning today. Is that just me? the past couple of morning he was already starting to lose his main convection.
Quoting 1433. RitaEvac:


That's the kind of rains I get right there, doesn't do anything and dries out in 24 hrs time with the beating summer sun. Everyone says it's better than nothing, it IS NOTHING! it's not penetrating the ground. Detention ponds, are down 3 or so feet and not budging, there's now an illusion going on, get 0.41" for example on Saturday and grass greens up but the situation is silently getting worse.

Yep. Exactly. .35" ain't gonna do squat with those conditions that you KNOW you are going to get the very next day or that afternoon even! With clay soils...I am sorry but you gotta get at least a half an inch. And even that is nothing. You just can't win sometimes!
Keeping one eye on that blob..click pic to loop.
I think the time of day tells a lot; Xdorian must be in somewhat better conditions, This might still have a bit of a shot. Let's say 15% or so; anyhow will the yellow circle come back today.
1440. K8eCane
Quoting 1438. Skyepony:
Keeping one eye on that blob..click pic to loop.



I cant believe it isn't an invest
Quoting 1434. MisterPerfect:


thank you for your hard work to keep this country running.


Well you're welcome.
Flood in Myanmar (Burma) on Wednesday, 31 July, 2013 at 13:52 (01:52 PM) UTC.
Description
Nearly 25,000 people have been evacuated to makeshift camps after floods ravaged eastern Myanmar, an official said Wednesday, as relief teams struggled to reach remote areas inundated by water. Flood waters have risen dramatically after several days of heavy rain in Karen State forcing thousands to flee to nearly 80 relief camps, Chum Hre, director of the social welfare, relief and resettlement department said. "Altogether 24,499 flood victims have been evacuated" in Karen State, he said, adding hundreds more had been displaced in Mon and Rakhine states. "It is very difficult to reach some of the disaster-hit places because of the bad weather and landslides," he said, adding that helicopters had been deployed.
Quoting 1413. gulfportbrees:
Good morning all. I've been hiding in the shadows here for a long time. I don't really know squat about weather, but am fascinated with it nonetheless. I have been following Dorian since it was born. There is something about Dorian that has kept me on edge for days. My gut just keeps telling me not to take my eyes off it until there's nothing at all left of it. This morning I'm feeling really nervous about it. I heard the "K" word mentioned & that of course got my attention. I live on the MS coast & stayed during that monster. I know that none of us in all honesty can really be sure what can happen with these systems, but do you guys think it possibe that exD may regenerate & get into the Gulf? Any input is greatly appreciated. I learn so much here & really have come to value some of your opinions. Thanks all & everyone have a great day!
Look I'm not sure if anyone has answered your question but here is what I think..... Now this is just my "Opinion" :o)
Do I think it gets in the GOM? "Yes" But what will it look like when it does? "Unknown" I'm thinking this could be a Rain Maker and that's it, or it could get stacked and become a min Hurricane..... None of the models show anything right now but as we all know, Weather changes every minute. I'm with you I'll keep a close eye on it until it is "Gone". Now we all know the GOM can produce some pretty big Storms, but we also know that even the big storms can also reduce and be nothing at all by landfall. Now do I think this could be a K like storm? "Nope" the waters are warm but not as warm as Mid August or September....

I do hope this helps and remember this is just my opinion and I'm not as "Good" as some in here, but I have been through a lot of storms in my "Old Age" and also live in the North Gulf Coast....

Taco :o)
Are there any current models for the headache blob?
Quoting 1426. HimacaneBrees:



It's my last day of work then it's home sweet home for 14 days. It's been a hot 2 weeks out here in the GOM. There isn't a breath of wind at my location today and extremely humid.


What's your coordinates?
1446. zampaz
Quoting 1428. SouthernIllinois:

Sup Z! :) I think you should patent that saying. "I watch the teacher Grothar and ignore the rest"

Has a great ring to it and might go down as one of the greats. Ya never know....might be on to something!!

Nat

Lookin' groovy Girl!
So you didn't get much rain :(
Tomorrow rain comes.
--
What if haiku was
the only post format allowed
on the tropics blog?
-z :)
har har har
Quoting 1433. RitaEvac:


That's the kind of rains I get right there, doesn't do anything and dries out in 24 hrs time with the beating summer sun. Everyone says it's better than nothing, it IS NOTHING! it's not penetrating the ground. Detention ponds, are down 3 or so feet and not budging, there's now an illusion going on, get 0.41" for example on Saturday and grass greens up but the situation is silently getting worse.


We need about 2" of rain over a 24 hour period to beat the evap of a typical TX summer day. We got .7 inches on Friday night out of one heck of a thunderstorm here in Austin and by noon the next day it was dry at a half inch soil depth. The light show was really impressive (I'm guessing about 5000 strikes in a one hour period) and at least it dropped the temps into the mid to upper 8os on Saturday.
Quoting 1444. Fishinnfever05:
Are there any current models for the headache blob?


I have Bayer right in front of me lol
1449. hydrus
Quoting 1369. Grothar:
What could happen is that the large ball of convection could start getting pulled into the waning ULL. If it makes it down to the surface, it would be interesting. I know I got viciously attacked yesterday for saying this was possibly not over with ex-Dorian. I've been saying for the past 5 days not to expect any development until it was above Hispaniola. I know I posted these early this morning but I will again. Does anybody else have any thoughts on this one? It may just be some energy left over, but nice little blob nonetheless.

I said a few days ago this would drift west and conditions would gradually become more favorable for Dorian to regenerate, but now that 91L is gone, whatever forms will have a different name. Regardless, I believe that something will form from the blob because the front to the north would give some upper air support. Forecast map does indeed have the system moving west.

My grass didn't even up at all. Haven't bothered with the sprinkers yet so I'm expecting a letter from the civic association any day now. Sometimes I wonder if we're returning to the days of the dust bowl. Summers are getting pretty brutal. I seriously may retire to a different climate in a few years.
Fresh ASCAT of the wave coming off Africa.
the weather is cooling down in the northeast
Quoting 1449. hydrus:
I said a few days ago this would drift west and conditions would gradually become more favorable for Dorian to regenerate, but now that 91L is gone, whatever forms will have a different name. Regardless, I believe that something will form from the blob because the front to the north would give some upper air support. Forecast map does indeed have the system moving west.



Slam that thing right into Galveston Bay please
I am traveliong next week and I am waiting to see if this is going to turn into anything and possibly head our way. I will feel much better when this is gone. No headaches!!! My wife has been making fun because i cant stay off this blog latley. its sort of funny
Nam 57 hours bringing Dorian's moisture into S.Florida.
1456. txjac
Quoting 1453. DavidHOUTX:


Slam that thing right into Galveston Bay please


I'm with you David. My son just moved to Galveston yesterday ...so lets not make it anything too fierce!
Quoting 1445. RitaEvac:


What's your coordinates?


29 16' N
88 38' W
Quoting 1456. txjac:


I'm with you David. My son just moved to Galveston yesterday ...so lets not make it anything too fierce!


I definitely do not want a hurricane here at all. Especially with the drought we have had over the past 2 years. Trees would be down everywhere!! A nice soaking tropical storm would be very nice though!
Good morning, everyone

Rain showers and 87 with humidex of 96 as of now. The temps have been miserable the last few days over here.

Very busy day here on the island with an extra cruise ship in, avoiding Dorian's bit of a mess. Originally scheduled for NY, Bahamas and T&C; now scheduled for NY, Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and T&C. It's avoiding the Bahamas completely. This just means that I totally avoid the downtown area and just hide from here, westwards.

Lindy


TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
0900 UTC WED JUL 31 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 118.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 118.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.8N 120.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 123.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 127.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.7N 130.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

Quoting 1408. SLU:
The CFS calls for a very active August with stronger than normal ridging.



Cool!
Quoting 1457. HimacaneBrees:


29 16' N
88 38' W


Just mapped ya in my ArcMap program, just east where the ol Mississippi dumps, and south of Pascagoula.
We've had some nice showers late yesterday & last night from the T-wave about to move over our area here in Cayman. A mini-Blob sitting to our west this morning.
Quoting 1412. SPLbeater:
Wow.


Looks like we will need OXYGEN MASKS! I HATE THE SAL!!
Quoting 1450. Houstonweathergrl:
My grass didn't even up at all. Haven't bothered with the sprinkers yet so I'm expecting a letter from the civic association any day now. Sometimes I wonder if we're returning to the days of the dust bowl. Summers are getting pretty brutal. I seriously may retire to a different climate in a few years.


Not too far off at all. Sad when the desert southwest gets more precip than us. Back in 2011 they were saying expect drought conditions for nine years. I'm looking on the bright side. Only seven more to go and at least I don't have to shovel sunshine :)

1466. VR46L
Quoting 1451. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of the wave coming off Africa.
Quoting 1451. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of the wave coming off Africa.


Looks like its doomed to fizzle

Quoting 1462. RitaEvac:


Just mapped ya in my ArcMap program, just east where the ol Mississippi dumps, and south of Pascagoula.



You are correct. approximately 65 - 70 NM east of Venice La. We are in 229 ft of water drilling an exploratory well in the 295 block of Main Pass. Actually I don't drill anything. At the moment I'm programming a new Panel View for one of our PLC systems and playing on the WU blog.
Quoting 1467. HimacaneBrees:



You are correct. approximately 65 - 70 NM east of Venice La. We are in 229 ft of water drilling an exploratory well in the 295 block of Main Pass. Actually I don't drill anything. At the moment I'm programming a new Panel View for one of our PLC systems and playing on the WU blog.


Niiiiice
1470. hydrus
The little blob of high pressure is still near the blob..

ex dorian refuses to give up morphizing into something else south of florida
I'm new and don't know what to do! Trying to learn all the acronyms and lingo. You guys are keeping me busy haha. Keep up the good posts!
Sky, Wondering if you have any idea as to the duration of the dust layer that has recently blown off Africa. Do you think this could inhibit tropical formation for the remaindetr of the CV season. Any insight/opinion is appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Quoting 1451. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of the wave coming off Africa.
Quoting 1467. HimacaneBrees:



You are correct. approximately 65 - 70 NM east of Venice La. We are in 229 ft of water drilling an exploratory well in the 295 block of Main Pass. Actually I don't drill anything. At the moment I'm programming a new Panel View for one of our PLC systems and playing on the WU blog.


Allen-Bradley. Pricey, but nice.
Quoting OminousBlackClouds:
I'm new and don't know what to do! Trying to learn all the acronyms and lingo. You guys are keeping me busy haha. Keep up the good posts!


If there is anything you don't understand or want to know more about, ask! Most of us are good people who would love to help :)
Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are now the warmest they've been all year:



Gulf is still struggling to reach positive overall values:



MDR is up too:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1478. beell
Quoting 1451. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of the wave coming off Africa.


Is that a Wave or just the monsoon? I was not keeping up.

ADDED: No answer required if you've already jumped!
Blob here,blob there.Blob watchers everywhere.Sorry blobers change your name to SAL watchers or salers.
.
Quoting 1426. HimacaneBrees:



It's my last day of work then it's home sweet home for 14 days. It's been a hot 2 weeks out here in the GOM. There isn't a breath of wind at my location today and extremely humid.
Time for some home cooked shrimps Brees?
Blob,blob,blob thats all.SAL,SAL and more Sal.Enjoy your day watching this boring things.
Radiation is somewhat elevated across the CONUS today..
Quoting 1478. beell:


Is that a Wave or just the monsoon? I was not keeping up.

ADDED: No answer required if you've already jumped!

Actually that marked Low maybe a touch west of there..here we go..
June - July 2013: GOES EAST Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector long play animation shows conditions in the tropics from June through July 2013. This video is approximately 10:30 long and features Tropical Storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian. The graphics and titling in the video provide detailed information about the stages of each storm.

If you are interested in downloading this animation, goto www.keepvid.com, plug in the following URL address: http://youtu.be/TYxarP1YW5w and then choose the resolution you prefer.

Please feel free to share the link to the video to any other weather sites you frequent.

Enjoy! :)

Oz---