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Weakening Flossie Closes in on Hawaii; ex-Dorian More Organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2013

A weakening Tropical Storm Flossie is closing in on Hawaii, where tropical storm warnings are flying for the entire island chain. Satellite images show that Flossie has lost most of its heavy thunderstorms, and continued weakening is expected as the storm traverses the islands, due to moderate wind shear and dry air aloft. Flossie's winds of 45 mph will likely drop to the 35 - 40 mph range as it passes through the islands on Monday afternoon and evening, and it is possible that no location in Hawaii will record sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph or greater.) Monday's 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave Honolulu a 16% chance of tropical storm force winds, 20% for Kahului on Maui, and no odds for the Big Island. The storm's main threat will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 10" are expected over The Big Island and Maui, and 4 - 8" in Oahu. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Radar loops show a respectable area of heavy rain associated with Flossie, approaching the Big Island.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Flossie taken at approximately 5 pm EDT Sunday July 28, 2013. At the time, Flossie had top winds near 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical storms are uncommon in Hawaii
On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as eleven in 1992 and 1994. August is the peak month, followed by July, then September. Tropical storms and hurricanes are uncommon in the Hawaiian Islands. Only eight named storms have impacted Hawaii in the 34 year period 1979–2012, an average of one storm every four years. Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only one tropical storm has hit the islands since 1949--an unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island. A brief summary of the three most significant hurricanes to affect Hawaii in modern times:

September 1992: Hurricane Iniki was the strongest, deadliest, and most damaging hurricane to affect Hawaii since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11, killing six and causing $2 billion in damage.

November 1982: Hurricane Iwa was one of Hawaii's most damaging hurricanes. Although it was only a Category 1 storm, it passed just miles west of Kauai, moving at a speed of nearly 50 miles per hour (80 km/h). Iwa killed one person and did $250 million in damage, making it the second most damaging hurricane to ever hit Hawaii. All the islands reported some surf damage along their southwest facing shores, and wind damage was widespread on Kauai.

August 1959: Hurricane Dot entered the Central Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Hawaii, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall on Kauai. Dot brought sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 103 mph to Kilauea Light. Damage was in excess of $6 million. No Dot-related deaths were recorded.


Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2012. During that time span, the Hawaiian Islands received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. One tropical storm also hit, and unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island of Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Remains of Dorian growing more organized
The remains of Tropical Storm Dorian, located just north of Puerto Rico, are headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Satellite images show that ex-Dorian has a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that have grown more organized this morning, with an intense clump of thunderstorms that have created a circular area of high cirrus clouds called a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) over the disturbance. There are no signs of a surface circulation on visible satellite images, but an AIr Force hurricane hunter aircraft is on call to investigate ex-Dorian Monday afternoon, if necessary. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Dorian's remains a 40% chance of regenerating by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 50%. The primary impediment to development is the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure to its west that ex-Dorian is running into. Strong upper-level southwesterly winds associated with this trough are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and driving dry air into the west side of ex-Dorian. This shear is not expected to relent at all during the next few days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predict that ex-Dorian will regenerate, though the HWRF model, which is not reliable for predicting genesis, does show Dorian regenerating. Dorian's remains should continue moving west-northwest during the week, spreading over the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and over Florida and Central Cuba on Thursday and Friday.

Philadelphia sets its all-time single day rainfall record
An incredible deluge of 8.02" of rain hit Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Sunday, breaking the all-time one-day rainfall record for the city. The previous record of 6.63" was set on September 16, 1999 during Tropical Storm Floyd. With a further round of rain after midnight in Philadelphia (bringing the 24-hour record storm total to 8.27”), July has brought 13.25” of precipitation to the City of Brotherly Love. This surpasses the previous July monthly record (since 1872) of 10.42”set in 1994. The wettest month on record for Philadelphia remains 19.31” in August 2011. Yesterday's deluge is an astonishing rainfall total for a location with such a long period of record, considering that it occurred without the benefit of a tropical storm being present. Remarkably, 6.46" of the rain fell in just 3 1/2 hours.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. VR46L
Quoting 2483. MisterPerfect:
help! the blog has been hijacked by CO2 demons! only some convection in 91L can save us now!


Yep

Maybe a nice visual will help....

I've always wondered what the "mansion" someone lives in has to do with the science of AGW..
thank you VR
91L -Zombie blob that won't die.
Spinning right near the Turks and Caicos
Quoting 2502. indianrivguy:
I've always wondered what the "mansion" someone lives in has to do with the science of AGW..


Yeah, that always threw me off. It's more just a personal hatred for Gore than anything else from what I can tell. Shoot the messenger I suppose.
Quoting 2498. SouthernIllinois:

Mik! Morning! Beautiful shot of the sun. Dexter camara shy....WHAT??? LOL

Nat :)


Well, maybe it was just me not being on the ball...

Quoting 2499. pcola57:


Thanks for the pics Mik..
Did you get your rain gauge installed yet?


Drat! I was hoping no one would ask me that - man, I can't get away with anything on this blog this morning! Today! For sure! Grrrrrr


BORING!!!!
Quoting 2489. Naga5000:


I would suggest you begin here Link then. Linear trends show exactly what they mean to show, the straight line measure of temperature over time. All trends show an increase over the past climatological time frame. Cherry picking 15 years doesn't make a difference even though in climatology 30 year periods are used.

Of course, if we leave out the year 1998 and look at the trends before and after...well, it doesn't exactly help the "AGW stopped" hypothesis.

2510. pcola57
Sorry about the AGW comments..
I know there is a forum for this..
Just makes my blood pressure go crazy when I see such a nonsense remark..

Not looking too bad around here this am..

Quoting 2507. mikatnight:


Well, maybe it was just me not being on the ball...

Uh.....it's you. ;)
Quoting 2475. Murko:
BBC report on the so-called "pause" in global warming. Just my $0.02: strange how the anti-AGW brigade always pick one of the hottest years in the last 20 to reference to suggest that there's been little warming since then.

Link
I saw an interesting statistic somewhere earlier this week saying that St. Louis had posted its first record low temperature in almost 10 years... every other record broken had been a heat record. This was a bit unnerving, because it suggests a heating trend despite all the other factors - flooding, drought, etc. Kinda startling.
Quoting 2480. pcola57:


By trying to de-bunk a graph adds nothing to the notion you aspire to..
Some facts are in order..
Got any?


Facts? Ok. Here are a few. the planet has warmed and cooled through cycles for many years. even before man was present.

another fact is that we indeed warmed and perhaps we are still warming, but in no way are human accelerating it it's a natural ocurrence.

Now from facts to hope. I hope we warm at least a little more, so we can declare the Gulf Coast a tropical paradise. even better if the ice caps melt we can use the sunken cities as scuba diving attractions and the new lands pooipng out in Greenland can be used to build casinos and walmarts. Then people inland will find themselves having beach front property which is also a good thing for thir property value. We can start growing tropical crops. I miss growing my own coffee and avocados and in a few years I will be able to.

Regardless of what happens trust me. you have no control over it. and actually if what you people argue is true, then maybe the end result will be the cancellation of the next ice age which is fast approaching. So please quit qith the AWG beacuse Its getting old and I am actually lookinf forward to it. As a matter of fact. Jus the fact that it would make life for liberals a living hell would make AGW worth it so I now feel more motivated to get in my 13mpg Jeep and go driving for hours. After all I can afford the gas. ;)
Quoting 2500. cchsweatherman:
My opinion on global warming is that global warming will always cause a debate.


Some folks just can't resist a good argument!

2517. VR46L
Quoting 2502. indianrivguy:
I've always wondered what the "mansion" someone lives in has to do with the science of AGW..


I don't know , I always think the don't do as I do but what I say approach bugs me ... Said it before, smacks of hypocrisy ...
Quoting 2467. indianrivguy:


Most folks only get headlines. Those of us directly affected are still full of misconceptions too. Since their bought and paid for Florida Legislature gave them every pollution protection they asked for, including illegal 30 year leases, sugar has spent millions advertising what good "stewards" they are to the Florida Everglades, and see how "their" solutions have worked. And if you have no other input, its easy to believe it. Until the citizens reflect their anger and frustration in the ballot box, we don't have a chance.

Every American who reads this, unnecessarily gives up 20 dollars a year to support sugar subsidies given to owners of billion dollar multinational corporations. If the sugar subsidies stopped, sugar would go out of business in the Florida Everglades. The land values would plummet, we could save billions buying them out of the way.

Of course first, they would try and put houses on the land to obstruct flooding. And they could rightfully say housing could thrive there. The infrastructure to keep them dry is already in place, and we KNOW it works, sugar hasn't gotten its feet wet, not once on more then twenty years, no matter the destruction of the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie Estuaries.

Setting aside destruction of the most diverse estuarine habitat in North America there is also the reckless endangerment of our citizens along those bodies of polluted water. The several month old cyanobacteria bloom in Okeechobee Lake is being discharged into OUR waters to protect sugar fields.


Very well said IRG. Sugar wants us to believe they are working in our best interest to protect the environment. BP is trying to do the same for the GOM
Good thing the ULL was in Place.....91L could have been one to remember. LOL
How can you argue with logic like that? You can't.
Quoting 2495. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:59 am (10:59 GMT) Note - I will attempt to make all future GM pic posts at 9am (1pm GMT)

Lantana, Florida - If I could just get that crane operator to give me a ride up, that would be a good picture!


Dex was camera shy this morning, so here's one from yesterday, playing with his friend Odie in Bicentennial Park.

Both the NWS and WU agree on a 40% chance of rain today. Some showers moved through earlier, but largely missed us (big surprise, lol). Thinking xD/91L will be a rainmaker, but no overwhelming chances are being forecast over the next few days. As always, we'll see.

0.04" in the gauge this morning.





hopefully going to that park today
Quoting 2519. TampaSpin:
Good thing the ULL was in Place.....91L could have been one to remember. LOL


Very true. As it stands right now, all of the convection that it still firing is run of the mill baroclinic convection from the dry air from the ULL sinking down on the eastern side of the ULL into the trof that the remnants are embedded in.
2523. pcola57
Quoting 2514. CaneHunter031472:


Facts? Ok. Here are a few. the planet has warmed and cooled through cycles for many years. even before man was present.

another fact is that we indeed warmed and perhaps we are still warming, but in no way are human accelerating it it's a natural ocurrence.

Now from facts to hope. I hope we warm at least a little more, so we can declare the Gulf Coast a tropical paradise. even better if the ice caps melt we can use the sunken cities as scuba diving attractions and the new lands pooipng out in Greenland can be used to build casinos and walmarts. Then people inland will find themselves having beach front property which is also a good thing for thir property value. We can start growing tropical crops. I miss growing my own coffee and avocados and in a few years I will be able to.

Regardless of what happens trust me. you have no control over it. and actually if what you people argue is true, then maybe the end result will be the cancellation of the next ice age which is fast approaching. So please quit qith the AWG beacuse Its getting old and I am actually lookinf forward to it. As a matter of fact. Jus the fact that it would make life for liberals a living hell would make AGW worth it so I now feel more motivated to get in my 13mpg Jeep and go driving for hours. After all I can afford the gas. ;)


Opinions aren't facts..
I don't see any links or science posted by you to back up your "opinion"
This isn't personal to you in anyway..
I just think that you may have mis-understood the data..
Note:
Will not post on AWG any more this am on this blog..
Quoting 2519. TampaSpin:
Good thing the ULL was in Place.....91L could have been one to remember. LOL



Never know. It still could be
Quoting 2514. CaneHunter031472:


Facts? Ok. Here are a few. the planet has warmed and cooled through cycles for many years. even before man was present.

another fact is that we indeed warmed and perhaps we are still warming, but in no way are human accelerating it it's a natural ocurrence.

Now from facts to hope. I hope we warm at least a little more, so we can declare the Gulf Coast a tropical paradise. even better if the ice caps melt we can use the sunken cities as scuba diving attractions and the new lands pooipng out in Greenland can be used to build casinos and walmarts. Then people inland will find themselves having beach front property which is also a good thing for thir property value. We can start growing tropical crops. I miss growing my own coffee and avocados and in a few years I will be able to.

Regardless of what happens trust me. you have no control over it. and actually if what you people argue is true, then maybe the end result will be the cancellation of the next ice age which is fast approaching. So please quit qith the AWG beacuse Its getting old and I am actually lookinf forward to it. As a matter of fact. Jus the fact that it would make life for liberals a living hell would make AGW worth it so I now feel more motivated to get in my 13mpg Jeep and go driving for hours. After all I can afford the gas. ;)
keep getting those facts from fox news. you are informed and balanced.
Quoting 2524. weatherlover94:



Never know. It still could be


The EURO model is developing a Low in the Gulf of Mexico next week......looks like from a stalled front.
Quoting 2523. pcola57:


Opinions aren't facts..
I don't see any links or science posted by you to back up your "opinion"
This isn't personal to you in anyway..
I just think that you may have mis-understood the data..
Note:
Will not post on AWG any more this am on this blog..

Well said. Some people have heads in sand and refuse to acknowledge science and the hard earned facts the learned among us provide to us for our own continuity. Alas! Not the way I wanted to start my day with more bs, and Dorian(X) still butting against the ULL eternally....
Quoting 2525. floridaT:
keep getting those facts from fox news. you are informed and balanced.

LOL! Right back at 'em!
Quoting 2444. CaneHunter031472:


People wake up if you have hard evidence proving AWG that's ok


Whew. Good thing there's far enough of it to convince, and not just temperature data, but ocean temperatures, stable isotopes, ecologic, cryologic, atmospheric chemistry, sea-level, and isotopic data that nests together to tell a shared story (like volcanic chain, earthquake focii, geomorphology, and ages of formations all nest together to support plate tectonics; or genetics, phylogeny, paleontology, etc. all nest together to support evolutionary theory).

If you don't want to believe that human activities are not only impacting the climate today, but are in fact the primary driver, that's fine... but you have a belief in the face of the available evidence. That's not science.
Quoting 2521. SecretStormNerd:


hopefully going to that park today


We try to meet Paul and his dog Missy there everyday at around 5:30 - 5:45. If you happen to be there then, come over and say hi!
Quoting 2518. FtMyersgal:


Very well said IRG. Sugar wants us to believe they are working in our best interest to protect the environment. BP is trying to do the same for the GOM

First step voting out Skeletor from Governor's office.
Quoting 2525. floridaT:
keep getting those facts from fox news. you are informed and balanced.


My balance is very good,,,,but it sure the heck is not from CNN, NBC, CBS, or ABC .....at least you don't just get one side of every story with the other ALL THE TIME!
You all can discuss anything you want till the mods shut you down but the personal attacks are being reported. 88 and 92% humidity and I get to work outside today!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA
We need to wait a moment, Nea should be chiming in any moment.
It's moving in Baby!! Woooohooooo!!!


Quoting 2531. congaline:

First step voting out Skeletor from Governor's office.


Is he still the least popular governor in the country?
Quoting 2523. pcola57:


Opinions aren't facts..
I don't see any links or science posted by you to back up your "opinion"
This isn't personal to you in anyway..
I just think that you may have mis-understood the data..
Note:
Will not post on AWG any more this am on this blog..


It's not an opinion its only hope. I love warm weather I love tropical crops and I would love for the whole planet to be able to grow them. Screw the apples and pears. Lets grow Guavas, bananas, Coffee, Avocados. Coconut trees. I just don't get why are we so divided. Why do we tend to try ridiculing others points of views, and I include myself on that. When we are divided, the only ones who benefit are the Elites. The politicians and the Al Gores. I apologize for letting myself get carried away, but im not the problem instead I'm just part of a much bigger problem. We have become a divided nation with tribes fighting all over the place and honestly we will not be able to survive that way. Now can we please get back to weather. Isn't there a forum for this sort of things?
Quoting 2514. CaneHunter031472:


Facts? Ok. Here are a few. the planet has warmed and cooled through cycles for many years. even before man was present.

another fact is that we indeed warmed and perhaps we are still warming, but in no way are human accelerating it it's a natural ocurrence.

Now from facts to hope. I hope we warm at least a little more, so we can declare the Gulf Coast a tropical paradise. even better if the ice caps melt we can use the sunken cities as scuba diving attractions and the new lands pooipng out in Greenland can be used to build casinos and walmarts. Then people inland will find themselves having beach front property which is also a good thing for thir property value. We can start growing tropical crops. I miss growing my own coffee and avocados and in a few years I will be able to.

Regardless of what happens trust me. you have no control over it. and actually if what you people argue is true, then maybe the end result will be the cancellation of the next ice age which is fast approaching. So please quit qith the AWG beacuse Its getting old and I am actually lookinf forward to it. As a matter of fact. Jus the fact that it would make life for liberals a living hell would make AGW worth it so I now feel more motivated to get in my 13mpg Jeep and go driving for hours. After all I can afford the gas. ;)


underwater structures do wonders for ocean creatures. one day Miami Beach will be a nice reef to dive and explore. what's wrong with that? 20 miles inland in south florida you dig a hole 8 feet down and find coral and ocean fossils. wonder how they got there? not even a million years old they are. tectonics couldn't have lifted the land in that short period of time.

what's that you say? ice in a bowl of water melts? you mean like the north pole? where the ocean floor isn't extremely deep and continents surround the area? on a planet with an iron-nickel core about 10,800 degrees? with a looming plasma ball 90 million miles away that accounts for 98.6% of the entire solar system's mass shining down for plus or minus 4.54 billion years non-stop? oh yeah, its man for sure.
maybe a tropical storm soon.
invest 99E is looking very good this morning
Quoting 2536. SouthernIllinois:
It's moving in Baby!! Woooohooooo!!!




Stop it! that's rude to your fellow Texans
2544. LargoFl
2545. Mclem1
Gee cripe, I read the blog to get an update of things and I walk into a verbal slap war. I guess we all deal with NHC downgradings in our own way...
Quoting 2541. hurricanes2018:
maybe a tropical storm soon.


uh oh! every day we've gone through this...
Quoting 2540. MisterPerfect:


underwater structures do wonders for ocean creatures. one day Miami Beach will be a nice reef to dive and explore. what's wrong with that? 20 miles inland in south florida you dig a hole 8 feet down and find coral and ocean fossils. wonder how they got there? not even a million years old they are. tectonics couldn't have lifted the land in that short period of time.

what's that you say? ice in a bowl of water melts? you mean like the north pole? where the ocean floor isn't extremely deep and continents surround the area? on a planet with an iron-nickel core about 10,800 degrees? with a looming plasma ball 90 million miles away that accounts for 98.6% of the entire solar system's mass shining down for plus or minus 4.54 billion years non-stop? oh yeah, its man for sure.

Derpalicious!!
Quoting 2543. RitaEvac:


Stop it! that's rude to your fellow Texans

DEAL with it. :)
2549. GatorWX
Quoting 2537. mikatnight:


Is he still the least popular governor in the country?


Mr Clean? Great guy, for the people!
I'm out for the day...You all stop Bitch slapping your keyboard and get along.....:) Peace out!
Quoting 2547. Birthmark:

Derpalicious!!


Fantasmalogical!
Quoting 2550. TampaSpin:
I'm out for the day...You all stop Bitch slapping your keyboard and get along.....:) Peace out!

Right behind you Tim. Life is too short to be bickering about this stuff. I got a life to live!!
Quoting 2540. MisterPerfect:


underwater structures do wonders for ocean creatures. one day Miami Beach will be a nice reef to dive and explore. what's wrong with that? 20 miles inland in south florida you dig a hole 8 feet down and find coral and ocean fossils. wonder how they got there? not even a million years old they are. tectonics couldn't have lifted the land in that short period of time.

what's that you say? ice in a bowl of water melts? you mean like the north pole? where the ocean floor isn't extremely deep and continents surround the area? on a planet with an iron-nickel core about 10,800 degrees? with a looming plasma ball 90 million miles away that accounts for 98.6% of the entire solar system's mass shining down for plus or minus 4.54 billion years non-stop? oh yeah, its man for sure.


Awesome.... Oh yeah and if the planet has been here for Billions and Billions of years.. We have only been measuring for hundreds (at best) with caveman like instruments even today. And all of a sudden we know everything about climate change. The argument is unsustainable on both sides so for anyone to point out they know what is happening is certainly speaking out of fiction.
Quoting 2546. MisterPerfect:


uh oh! every day we've gone through this...


Look at the satellite loop! You have to look real close, and there it is, an eye! There's an eye forming! Oh wait, that's just the reflection of my own eye on the computer screen. Nevermind.
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)


xDorian = rinse, repeat, but looking more poorly still trapped within considerable subsidence. Today should be the day it finds its RIP marker at last. Nothing will help this disturbance as long as it's trapped under all that sinking air and higher pressures. Doubtful now that it'll ever be more than a rainfall nuisance.





------------ N E X T ---------->>>>>>


Have a good day, all! :)
2556. LargoFl
Quoting 2553. earthlydragonfly:


Awesome.... Oh yeah and if the planet has been here for Billions and Billions of years.. We have only been measuring for hundreds (at best) with caveman like instruments even today. And all of a sudden we know everything about climate change. The argument is unsustainable on both sides so for anyone to point out they know what is happening is certainly speaking out of fiction.

Nonsense. No scientist (or even reader of science) claims "we know everything about climate change." Nor is it necessary to know everything. That's a good thing since we don't know everything about anything.

That said, we *do* know enough to say that the Earth's climate is warming and that humans are the primary cause.
this dorian is like a soap opera. it keeps teasing like something is going to happen. but it never does
Quoting 2514. CaneHunter031472:


Facts? Ok. Here are a few. the planet has warmed and cooled through cycles for many years. even before man was present.

another fact is that we indeed warmed and perhaps we are still warming, but in no way are human accelerating it it's a natural ocurrence.

Now from facts to hope. I hope we warm at least a little more, so we can declare the Gulf Coast a tropical paradise. even better if the ice caps melt we can use the sunken cities as scuba diving attractions and the new lands pooipng out in Greenland can be used to build casinos and walmarts. Then people inland will find themselves having beach front property which is also a good thing for thir property value. We can start growing tropical crops. I miss growing my own coffee and avocados and in a few years I will be able to.

Regardless of what happens trust me. you have no control over it. and actually if what you people argue is true, then maybe the end result will be the cancellation of the next ice age which is fast approaching. So please quit qith the AWG beacuse Its getting old and I am actually lookinf forward to it. As a matter of fact. Jus the fact that it would make life for liberals a living hell would make AGW worth it so I now feel more motivated to get in my 13mpg Jeep and go driving for hours. After all I can afford the gas. ;)


And herein lies the real gist of your comment, a deep-seated dislike for what you call liberals. No science in your remarks and it's obvious you have no children, who will later have childen and down the line. If so you would probably pause and think about your statement we have no control over it. Sir, we are the dominate species on this planet and we have the most control. If you can't see what a simple science class teaches about fossil fuels and the ozone, then in a way I feel sorry for you. I am liberal and I am conservative, neither and both - I refuse to be cast into one political mold, especially when it comes to the health of a planet we are all so fortunate to have the opportunity to live.
So I see the circulation is now clearly in the Turks and Ciacos / SE Bahamas...
2561. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MYAKKA RIVER AND
SOUTHERN END OF THE PEACE RIVER. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON
THE MANATEE RIVER AND CYPRESS CREEK IF HEAVY RAINS FALL IN THE
HEADWATERS OF BOTH STREAMS.
2562. Grothar
Quoting 2482. padirescu:


Valium can help with those emotions Grothar. I noticed they've been getting a little out of control recently. Or you can subscribe to my solution of choice, alcohol. :-)


Sorry, I never drank alcohol of any kind and never will. After 4 years on the blog, I think I am entitled to lose my temper at least twice which I admittedly have done in the past month. For most, that is quite a record. And I do not need Valium. I just need the same respect accorded to me as I give to everyone else. When there are issues on the blog which do not conform to my thinking I do not engage in arguments, I simply withdraw and compose myself. I defend people who I feel are being unfairly targeted. I try my best to deflect as many arguments as possible. For 95% of the time I enjoy the blog and the people enormously. I am very fond of many of them. Since I am now quite restricted in my activities and can hardly walk to pick up my own mail, I feel I am at least entitled to an occasional rant.

Perhaps if anyone feels I have been unfair with them, they should reflect on their own entries and behavior. I have always had the greatest admiration and respect for the members on here (with the obvious exceptions. And as long as I am here, I will continue to do so.
Quoting 2557. Birthmark:

Nonsense. No scientist (or even reader of science) claims "we know everything about climate change." Nor is it necessary to know everything. That's a good thing since we don't know everything about anything.

That said, we *do* know enough to say that the Earth's climate is warming and that humans are the primary cause.


Nor did I make that Claim... I merely pointed out obvious. I will say however it is necessary to know a lot more about everything in order to find a conclusion. Many like to jump to conclusions rather quickly (within 200 years) that is. Im also not suggesting that we are not good Stuarts of our mother earth and we should protect her as she provides life to all. But Conclusions at this point are mute.
Quoting 2562. Grothar:


Sorry, I never drank alcohol of any kind and never will. After 4 years on the blog, I think I am entitled to lose my temper at least twice which I admittedly have done in the past month. For most, that is quite a record. And I do not need Valium. I just need the same respect accorded to me as I give to everyone else. When there are issues on the blog which do not conform to my thinking I do not engage in arguments, I simply withdraw and compose myself. I defend people who I feel are being unfairly targeted. I try my best to deflect as many arguments as possible. For 95% of the time I enjoy the blog and the people enormously. I am very fond of many of them. Since I am now quite restricted in my activities and can hardly walk to pick up my own mail, I feel I am at least entitled to an occasional rant.

Perhaps if anyone feels I have been unfair with them, they should reflect on their own entries and behavior. I have always had the greatest admiration and respect for the members on here (with the obvious exceptions. And as long as I am here, I will continue to do so.


Ditto.. well said :)

EDIT: With the exception of the alcohol part:)
2565. 19N81W
pretty quiet for July 30th good thing they got a few border line storms classified....I wonder again how this season was supposed to be highly active....it would appear its nothing more than an educated guess
Quoting 2553. earthlydragonfly:


Awesome.... Oh yeah and if the planet has been here for Billions and Billions of years.. We have only been measuring for hundreds (at best) with caveman like instruments even today. And all of a sudden we know everything about climate change. The argument is unsustainable on both sides so for anyone to point out they know what is happening is certainly speaking out of fiction.


here's one for you...when record keeping began for anything accurate on Arctic sea ice, Disney's Peter Pan opened in theaters. So remember, when they say "since record keeping began" they mean "since Captain Hook set sail in Never-Never Land".

Quoting 2562. Grothar:


Sorry, I never drank alcohol of any kind and never will. After 4 years on the blog, I think I am entitled to lose my temper at least twice which I admittedly have done in the past month. For most, that is quite a record. And I do not need Valium. I just need the same respect accorded to me as I give to everyone else. When there are issues on the blog which do not conform to my thinking I do not engage in arguments, I simply withdraw and compose myself. I defend people who I feel are being unfairly targeted. I try my best to deflect as many arguments as possible. For 95% of the time I enjoy the blog and the people enormously. I am very fond of many of them. Since I am now quite restricted in my activities and can hardly walk to pick up my own mail, I feel I am at least entitled to an occasional rant.

Perhaps if anyone feels I have been unfair with them, they should reflect on their own entries and behavior. I have always had the greatest admiration and respect for the members on here (with the obvious exceptions. And as long as I am here, I will continue to do so.


Yes Sir you have earned that right and I for one support that. Have a great day Gro and if you feel the need to set something straight well then by Gosh do it. I'm heading out into the city for some inspections. 91, 88% humidity, HI of 101 already :(
2569. LargoFl
this one takes whatever dorian becomes..RIGHT INTO Florida..we'll see in 72 hours..
2570. 62901IL
Will be getting rain today. We really need it. YAY!
And please excuse the YAY!
Quoting 2548. SouthernIllinois:

DEAL with it. :)


I don't wanna
Quoting 2562. Grothar:


Sorry, I never drank alcohol of any kind and never will. After 4 years on the blog, I think I am entitled to lose my temper at least twice which I admittedly have done in the past month. For most, that is quite a record. And I do not need Valium. I just need the same respect accorded to me as I give to everyone else. When there are issues on the blog which do not conform to my thinking I do not engage in arguments, I simply withdraw and compose myself. I defend people who I feel are being unfairly targeted. I try my best to deflect as many arguments as possible. For 95% of the time I enjoy the blog and the people enormously. I am very fond of many of them. Since I am now quite restricted in my activities and can hardly walk to pick up my own mail, I feel I am at least entitled to an occasional rant.

Perhaps if anyone feels I have been unfair with them, they should reflect on their own entries and behavior. I have always had the greatest admiration and respect for the members on here (with the obvious exceptions. And as long as I am here, I will continue to do so.
Gro you are a sweetheart. And the 2 years I have been on here you have been the most patient and respectful person on here. Dont let anyone get you too upset and cause you stress. Not good for the heart. I respect you 100000%. Now tell X-Dorian to move along.
2573. LargoFl
Quoting 2568. GeoffreyWPB:
It will be interesting to see what this looks like over the bahamas..
Quoting 2562. Grothar:


Sorry, I never drank alcohol of any kind and never will. After 4 years on the blog, I think I am entitled to lose my temper at least twice which I admittedly have done in the past month. For most, that is quite a record. And I do not need Valium. I just need the same respect accorded to me as I give to everyone else. When there are issues on the blog which do not conform to my thinking I do not engage in arguments, I simply withdraw and compose myself. I defend people who I feel are being unfairly targeted. I try my best to deflect as many arguments as possible. For 95% of the time I enjoy the blog and the people enormously. I am very fond of many of them. Since I am now quite restricted in my activities and can hardly walk to pick up my own mail, I feel I am at least entitled to an occasional rant.

Perhaps if anyone feels I have been unfair with them, they should reflect on their own entries and behavior. I have always had the greatest admiration and respect for the members on here (with the obvious exceptions. And as long as I am here, I will continue to do so.
gro always adds good stuff here. you do deserve to go off now and then gro.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A 'lovely' 73 degrees and 73 degree dewpoint as I watered the garden, and no rain in sight or expected. I felt like I was swimming as I watered from one end to the other.

What is going on with Dorian, is he still hanging around?

Hands Grothar two cheese danishes and a glass of orange juice.

Breakfast's on the sideboard, in addition to anything CoopsWife may have put out: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, traditional omelet with crawfish touffe to pour over it, scrambled eggs, coffee cake, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
2565. 19N81W 9:40 AM EDT on July 30, 2013

His comments make my point. Dont you think if we knew so much about climate change we would understand how to predict hurricanes or other weather events with much greater accuracy? I mean come on, my local weather man with all of his understanding of climate and all the multi-million dollars of tools at his disposal can tell me whether I will see rain or not within 24 hours with any kind of accuracy beyond climatology.
Quoting 2559. alabamaredneck:


And herein lies the real gist of your comment, a deep-seated dislike for what you call liberals. No science in your remarks and it's obvious you have no children, who will later have childen and down the line. If so you would probably pause and think about your statement we have no control over it. Sir, we are the dominate species on this planet and we have the most control. If you can't see what a simple science class teaches about fossil fuels and the ozone, then in a way I feel sorry for you. I am liberal and I am conservative, neither and both - I refuse to be cast into one political mold, especially when it comes to the health of a planet we are all so fortunate to have the opportunity to live.


What I really dislike is for people to preach to me how should I live my life. If the AGW croud really believe we are the reason for global warming then I suggest they practice what they preach.
1. Sell your cars even better destroy them
2. Disconnect from the power grid
3. Don't use air conditioner
4. Eat your veggies raw. Cooking produces CO2
5. Quit breathing for 30 seconds every minute to cut your CO2 Emissions in half.
6. Quit the flatulence.
7. Do not have children so the earht will not be so populated with evil humans.
8. Kill your pets. Especialy Cats (they don't do much)
9. Do not fly or travel.

As for the rest of us, let us be. Maybe the day we see you parcticing what you preach, some of us will follow, but until then Quit preaching how evil man is because you are just part of the prblem.
Quoting 2565. 19N81W:
pretty quiet for July 30th good thing they got a few border line storms classified....I wonder again how this season was supposed to be highly active....it would appear its nothing more than an educated guess


It has yet to really begin. 90% of the season is still in front of us and we stand at 4-0-0.

Link

Lower level convergence increasing near 91L's swirl, but upper level divergence dropping.
Quoting 2531. congaline:

First step voting out Skeletor from Governor's office.


I also reference him as a character from men in black or he's from the terminator. I honestly don't know how someone like that got voted in. Especially with the medicare fraud. I guess that is a fair representation of our state, no? Floridians keep voting these bozo's into office...
Quoting 2537. mikatnight:


Is he still the least popular governor in the country?


Off topic, is the park wet? It is raining over here :-(
Quoting 2577. CaneHunter031472:


What I really dislike is for people to preach to me how should I live my life. If the AGW croud really believe we are the reason for global warming then I suggest they practice what they preach.
1. Sell your cars even better destroy them
2. Disconnect from the power grid
3. Don't use air conditioner
4. Eat your veggies raw. Cooking produces CO2
5. Quit breathing for 30 seconds every minute to cut your CO2 Emissions in half.
6. Quit the flatulence.
7. Do not have children so the earht will not be so populated with evil humans.
8. Kill your pets. Especialy Cats (they don't do much)
9. Do not fly or travel.

As for the rest of us, let us be. Maybe the day we see you parcticing what you preach, some of us will follow, but until then Quit preaching how evil man is because you are just part of the prblem.
we need that guy back on here that posted the daily satellite pics of the smog over china.
Widespread 1/2" rains over Central and Southern Illinois this morning and much needed at that. Things are starting to dry out up here, although we are getting into our dry season.

Quoting 2577. CaneHunter031472:


What I really dislike is for people to preach to me how should I live my life. If the AGW croud really believe we are the reason for global warming then I suggest they practice what they preach.
1. Sell your cars even better destroy them
2. Disconnect from the power grid
3. Don't use air conditioner
4. Eat your veggies raw. Cooking produces CO2
5. Quit breathing for 30 seconds every minute to cut your CO2 Emissions in half.
6. Quit the flatulence.
7. Do not have children so the earht will not be so populated with evil humans.
8. Kill your pets. Especialy Cats (they don't do much)
9. Do not fly or travel.

As for the rest of us, let us be. Maybe the day we see you parcticing what you preach, some of us will follow, but until then Quit preaching how evil man is because you are just part of the prblem.



Well said. Their hypocrisy is what slays me too.
AGW drama = sure sign the tropics are quiet
2586. 62901IL
Quoting 2583. ILwthrfan:
Widespread 1/2" rains over Central and Southern Illinois this morning and much needed at that. Things are starting to dry out up here, although we are getting into our dry season.


Its not raining outside in Carbondale yet...
Quoting 2585. moonlightcowboy:
AGW drama = sure sign the tropics are quiet


yeah it sucks, don't it?
New out yesterday about how Greenland is melting.
Quoting 2580. SecretStormNerd:


I also reference him as a character from men in black or he's from the terminator. I honestly don't know how someone like that got voted in. Especially with the medicare fraud. I guess that is a fair representation of our state, no? Floridians keep voting these bozo's into office...


Ol' Weiner boy trying to be mayor in NY, go figure.
Quoting 2565. 19N81W:
pretty quiet for July 30th good thing they got a few border line storms classified....I wonder again how this season was supposed to be highly active....it would appear its nothing more than an educated guess
Four name storms before August is pretty active for a season.
2592. will40
Quoting 2585. moonlightcowboy:
AGW drama = sure sign the tropics are quiet



yes a sigh indeed mlc
91L aka XDorian needs to make a move so the mood on this blog can change. Btw I decided not to put up shutters for my 9 days away starting tomorrow :) Hope I'm not making a bad decision but I rather spend my day getting my nails done.
Quoting 2566. MisterPerfect:


here's one for you...when record keeping began for anything accurate on Arctic sea ice, Disney's Peter Pan opened in theaters. So remember, when they say "since record keeping began" they mean "since Captain Hook set sail in Never-Never Land".


Therefore, this isn't true?

2595. ncstorm
AGW, GW, JB, Politics, Cool Kids, leather jackets, rants, alcohol, medication and not one single floater on ex Dorian in the last 10 posts..I love my weather blog on WU..
2596. LargoFl
Quoting 2580. SecretStormNerd:


I also reference him as a character from men in black or he's from the terminator. I honestly don't know how someone like that got voted in. Especially with the medicare fraud. I guess that is a fair representation of our state, no? Floridians keep voting these bozo's into office...


If I recall correctly it was only by 60,000 votes. He squeaked into office on the barest of margins, but that is the way Florida has been the past twenty years. It is a very divided state.
2598. Mikla
91L is a bit of a mess, though it appears the intensity models have become aligned... almost linear increase in intensity over the next few days.

Ugh... more AGW bickering and politics... I'll come back when folks want to talk shop and stop ranting... IMHO, it drives away folks who have a keen interest in weather as it pertains to activity in the tropics this time of year...
2599. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN...THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
Quoting 2587. MisterPerfect:


yeah it sucks, don't it?


I'm sorry for htting the AGW beehive with a stick lol. I'm going to stop now. But back to weather. The peak of the season is still ahead of us and for those who want some action I promise you that if the Bermuda high reamin as strong as it has been we will have several Cape Verde systems heading this way. It's only a matter of weeks.
Umm, July 30 is historically quite, cyclogenisis speaking for the Atlantic basin and number of storms predicted for a season is in fasct an educated guess.
Quoting 2565. 19N81W:
pretty quiet for July 30th good thing they got a few border line storms classified....I wonder again how this season was supposed to be highly active....it would appear its nothing more than an educated guess
Quoting 2576. earthlydragonfly:
2565. 19N81W 9:40 AM EDT on July 30, 2013

His comments make my point. Dont you think if we knew so much about climate change we would understand how to predict hurricanes or other weather events with much greater accuracy?

No. Hurricanes are a weather phenomenon, not climate.

Keep in mind that we're tied for number of storms with last year. Only difference is that 2012 was 4/1/0. However no storms formed in July 2012. I believe we should have had at least another TD..possibly a TS with 92L earlier this season. Some others on here have agreed. If the NHC sees at the end of the season...we might have been at 5/0/0 right now.
Quoting 2572. mrsalagranny:
Gro you are a sweetheart. And the 2 years I have been on here you have been the most patient and respectful person on here. Dont let anyone get you too upset and cause you stress. Not good for the heart. I respect you 100000%. Now tell X-Dorian to move along.



LOL you gota fan Gro
Quoting 2572. mrsalagranny:
Gro you are a sweetheart. And the 2 years I have been on here you have been the most patient and respectful person on here. Dont let anyone get you too upset and cause you stress. Not good for the heart. I respect you 100000%. Now tell X-Dorian to move along.


Ditto!! With one exception. I'm rooting for our EX to do something today so the blog will get back to subject at hand, (seeing he is our only blob to watch):)

The blog got off on the wrong foot this morning. I found myself biting my tongue a lot this morning. Thank you Gro for having the guts to speak your mind. Much respect.
NASA has a new way for us to watch the ice melt. Super close up polar satellite views with the timeline. Pretty amazing. Reminds me of some of the WUnderproducts with the timeline below.
2607. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN...THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
2608. LargoFl
Is there a recon going out today?
Rain all week!
2610. ncstorm
the cape verde season may be on hold..

Frank Strait Fan Club
Lotsa dry air and dust coming off Africa now. Vis 1.5 miles in blowing dust in Nouakchott. http://t.co/858OlJetOQ
2611. LargoFl
Quoting 2608. LargoFl:
Is there a recon going out today?


To were, lol our glorified tropical wave?
I think it's safe to say that 91L found the TUTT.

2614. hydrus
Quoting 2588. Skyepony:
New out yesterday about how Greenland is melting.
Wow...Thank you for posting that Skye..Seems like when I get info that tells me how bad it is, something comes along to let me know that its worse. It concerns me what will happen in our own lifetimes, nevermind what will happen far into the future.
2615. LargoFl
Quoting 2558. floridaT:
this dorian is like a soap opera. it keeps teasing like something is going to happen. but it never does


I feel like there will be a conclusion to it today. That ULL will continue to erode convection until there's nothing left. But the season will start picking up soon.
2617. hydrus
Quoting 2612. chrisdscane:


To were, lol our glorified tropical wave?
I wouldnt even glorify it.:)
Quoting 2597. southfla:


If I recall correctly it was only by 60,000 votes. He squeaked into office on the barest of margins, but that is the way Florida has been the past twenty years. It is a very divided state.



personally I think that comes from us having so many wealthy people and yet so many working poor who support the tourist industry said wealthy people own.
it's pretty black and white down here as compared to other places I've been. this state has always had a kooky reputation anyways, right?

but I'm not a native Floridian, so I could be entirely off

there's my bit, back to lurking.
Quoting 2572. mrsalagranny:
Gro you are a sweetheart. And the 2 years I have been on here you have been the most patient and respectful person on here. Dont let anyone get you too upset and cause you stress. Not good for the heart. I respect you 100000%. Now tell X-Dorian to move along.




hmmmm, some of the people, some of the time... ;)

Quoting 2614. hydrus:
Wow...Thank you for posting that Skye..Seems like when I get info that tells me how bad it is, something comes along to let me know that its worse. It concerns me what will happen in our own lifetimes, nevermind what will happen far into the future.


Nothing to be concerned about, aren't you keeping up? We can all eat bananas and mangoes and live happily ever after, under water. :)
2621. VR46L
Quoting 2610. ncstorm:
the cape verde season may be on hold..

Frank Strait Fan Club
Lotsa dry air and dust coming off Africa now. Vis 1.5 miles in blowing dust in Nouakchott. http://t.co/858OlJetOQ



Yep Tau Forecast quite an outbreak...


2622. will40
back later my minus button is in overdrive
Quoting 2569. LargoFl:
this one takes whatever dorian becomes..RIGHT INTO Florida..we'll see in 72 hours..

Not too crazy about this. Looks like path of whatever Dorian will be or was is going right over my house! And we certainly don't need anymore rain. We are saturated now and canals are full. This could be really bad with just a rain maker. A TS or Hurricane would really do some serious damage.
Quoting 2586. 62901IL:

Its not raining outside in Carbondale yet...


It's on your doorstep... I got a brother going to school down there right now, was just down there Saturday. Boy it's night and day on the landscape down there compared to up here. Nothing but corn, corn, corn, corn, beans....lol Wish I lived down there.
The anti-frackers are still getting carted off left & right.. Beware of this new ear twisting tactic..

Police officers try to break a human chain formed by anti-fracking protesters at Balcombe. Photograph: Tony Kershaw/Rex Features

Sussex police have made 14 arrests at an oil drilling site near the village of Balcombe after local people and anti-fracking activists attempted to block the delivery of machinery for a second day using a human chain and tree trunks.

Activists said police removed people who had blockaded the gates to the rural West Sussex site where the energy company Cuadrilla, headed by the former BP chief Lord Browne, intends to start test drilling for oil next week.

Sussex police said five people were arrested for causing danger to road users, and nine under trade union law for attempting to stop drivers and other workers from accessing the site. Police said the arrests were peaceful, but activists said there were struggles.



move along.. nothing to see.. we aren't here to harm or poison you...



Ashley Williams, who witnessed the arrests, said: "This is a totally disproportionate response. The community are standing up for themselves against a company that is trying to poison them. As soon as regular people put their head above the parapet the state jumps in to defend the interests of a wealthy few."
more
Quoting 2613. 1900hurricane:
I think it's safe to say that 91L found the TUTT.

Hello what is the TUTT?,thank you.
Quoting 2579. RascalNag:
Link

Lower level convergence increasing near 91L's swirl, but upper level divergence dropping.



Can you translate please?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 30 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1610Z.
2630. ncstorm
Quoting 2621. VR46L:



Yep Tau Forecast quite an outbreak...




sigh..

(and not the blogger)
00z 7-10 day outlooks from the Euro and GFS indicate that a strong central US troughing regime will be place with another strong signal for +PNA ridging into British Columbia, Canada, as well as into Hudson Bay, this corresponds downstream to an eastern US troughing regime, and western US ridging with ridging entering the GOM. Across the Atlantic both models indicate that the Azores high will be in control, which could steer storms west to around 50w and then recurve them out to sea above 15n. Our next tropical wave currently near 20-25w could be the last beneficiary to cross the Atlantic with the Bermuda high still in place, although it's transitioning, it's low latitude placement could allow it to be in more favorable conditions as in armed oceanic sea surface temperatures, and lesser wind shear protected from the upper level westerlies around 15n. Models don't develop this wave currently, but conditions seem favorable for development currently south of the Cape Verde Islands.

What does this mean for our ex Dorian? Currently there is a lot of wi d shear in the eastern GOM, which could spell doom for him as a large upper level ridge tries to nose into the western GOM. Flow east of the Bahamas is easterly from east to west trade winds, however as they get closer to Cuba they kinds f go over Cuba and into the eastern GOM and fly straight to TX. Oceanic SSTs for the GOM are n the rise, but are not at their peak yet as we are still in Late July, late August into September is the peak across the Atlantic for SSTs. So right now ex Dorian doesn't have a lot of TCHP going for him until western GOM. Right now I see shear lingering as the ridge really stays put, and the upper tropospheric trough literally stays put across the Bahamas staying in 91Ls way. Regeneration could occur, but for right now it is not imminent. I would not worry so much about the wave near the Cape Verde Islands as too much Shear and a strong upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic for now creating strong westerlies not too far from its projected path.
2632. hydrus
Quoting 2579. RascalNag:
Link

Lower level convergence increasing near 91L's swirl, but upper level divergence dropping.
I believe that it was the upper level divergence that kept this thing around as long as it did.
Quoting 2627. Hurricane1956:
Hello what is the TUTT?,thank you.

TUTT is an abbreviation for the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. Basically, it's an axis of upper level lows. There is a TUTT out in the central Atlantic too currently.



2634. VR46L
Quoting 2630. ncstorm:


sigh..

(and not the blogger)


LOL !!!

Hmmm Unless Dorian defies the odds its going to be grim for the weather bloggers for a couple of weeks :(
Quoting 2631. TheDawnAwakening:
00z 7-10 day outlooks from the Euro and GFS indicate that a strong central US troughing regime will be place with another strong signal for +PNA ridging into British Columbia, Canada, as well as into Hudson Bay, this corresponds downstream to an eastern US troughing regime, and western US ridging with ridging entering the GOM. Across the Atlantic both models indicate that the Azores high will be in control, which could steer storms west to around 50w and then recurve them out to sea above 15n. Our next tropical wave currently near 20-25w could be the last beneficiary to cross the Atlantic with the Bermuda high still in place, although it's transitioning, it's low latitude placement could allow it to be in more favorable conditions as in armed oceanic sea surface temperatures, and lesser wind shear protected from the upper level westerlies around 15n. Models don't develop this wave currently, but conditions seem favorable for development currently south of the Cape Verde Islands.

What does this mean for our ex Dorian? Currently there is a lot of wi d shear in the eastern GOM, which could spell doom for him as a large upper level ridge tries to nose into the western GOM. Flow east of the Bahamas is easterly from east to west trade winds, however as they get closer to Cuba they kinds f go over Cuba and into the eastern GOM and fly straight to TX. Oceanic SSTs for the GOM are n the rise, but are not at their peak yet as we are still in Late July, late August into September is the peak across the Atlantic for SSTs. So right now ex Dorian doesn't have a lot of TCHP going for him until western GOM. Right now I see shear lingering as the ridge really stays put, and the upper tropospheric trough literally stays put across the Bahamas staying in 91Ls way. Regeneration could occur, but for right now it is not imminent. I would not worry so much about the wave near the Cape Verde Islands as too much Shear and a strong upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic for now creating strong westerlies not too far from its projected path.


So given the forecast for the Azores high. We could expect formation for hte peak of the season to have a tendency for recurvature out to sea right?
Tropical Depression: An emotion brought on by watching a tropical disturbance which cannot gets its act together.
2637. LargoFl
hey any floridians live near that Gas tank plant that blew up in Tavaras?...........fire was so hot it melted several cars in the parking lot wow
Good morning everyone from a dry NW Florida. If all goes well today should be day 2 without rain at my house! I guess I won't bother reading back too much, looks like a lot of drama I don't need to worry about went on this morning.
Quoting 2625. Skyepony:
The anti-frackers are still getting carted off left & right.. Beware of this new ear twisting tactic..

Police officers try to break a human chain formed by anti-fracking protesters at Balcombe. Photograph: Tony Kershaw/Rex Features

Sussex police have made 14 arrests at an oil drilling site near the village of Balcombe after local people and anti-fracking activists attempted to block the delivery of machinery for a second day using a human chain and tree trunks.

Activists said police removed people who had blockaded the gates to the rural West Sussex site where the energy company Cuadrilla, headed by the former BP chief Lord Browne, intends to start test drilling for oil next week.

Sussex police said five people were arrested for causing danger to road users, and nine under trade union law for attempting to stop drivers and other workers from accessing the site. Police said the arrests were peaceful, but activists said there were struggles.



move along.. nothing to see.. we aren't here to harm or poison you...



Ashley Williams, who witnessed the arrests, said: "This is a totally disproportionate response. The community are standing up for themselves against a company that is trying to poison them. As soon as regular people put their head above the parapet the state jumps in to defend the interests of a wealthy few."
more



As long as a well casing is done properly and these morons stop using unstable untested uncased water wells there is no problem at all with fracking.

And unfortunately since these same types of people are against new nuclear we have to get the energy from somewhere. Or should we burn more coal and keep breathing that nice benzene ash?

I have no sympathy for them at all they get what they deserve.
2640. LargoFl
geez it must have been awful...................
Upper level anticyclonic flow is expected to develop by the models for the next 7-10 days over the Cape Verde Islands and GOM. Could be breeding grounds for tropical activity, as most of the rest of the tropical Atlantic remains hostile due to the upper level westerlies across the Caribbean Sea and central Atlantic. Wind shear might die enough for ex Dorian come around tomorrow into Thursday as the ridge tries to encompass the entire GOM in anticyclonic flow aloft, models show shear non existent even with northerly flow aloft. Models however show no tropical activity in the next 7-10 days, although pressures lower along the ITCZ.
2642. 62901IL
Quoting 2636. NEFLWATCHING:
Tropical Depression: An emotion brought on by watching a tropical disturbance which cannot gets its act together.

LOL!
Well am done with 91L next
Quoting 2640. LargoFl:
geez it must have been awful...................


News 13 reported 53,000 propane tanks exploded during the fire. No word as to the cause yet.
2645. 62901IL
It is raining hard in 62901.
Quoting 2635. CaneHunter031472:


So given the forecast for the Azores high. We could expect formation for hte peak of the season to have a tendency for recurvature out to sea right?


As long as North America is in a +PNA and - NAO, you can expect a rather benign landfall period, with no landfalling hurricanes, models do show something developing off e coast of NC within the next two days heading towards Nova Scotia. Expect that to be non tropical in nature.
As weak as the Dorian wave is..got to wunder how much to trust the models..anyway the GFDL, the one that's done best with this wave has a sudden change.. Weak & nearer to the east coast of FL than the Straights of FL..


Quoting 2644. Naga5000:


News 13 reported 53,000 propane tanks exploded during the fire. No word as to the cause yet.

There is a pic & some video of this in my blog comments..
2649. LargoFl
Quoting 2644. Naga5000:


News 13 reported 53,000 propane tanks exploded during the fire. No word as to the cause yet.
gee the whole building is gone..vaporized wow....
Peace out y'all that don't have me blocked. 91, 84% humidity here in NOLA
2651. LargoFl
yesterday..sure looked good
2652. LargoFl
Damn!!!! I came on here to see what Ex-Dorian was doing this morning and see we have slight arguments going on.. Can we all not play nice together today:))
Peace Out!!
Over the next two weeks we need to watch these fronts coming off the East Coast for tropical development with any 850mb vorticity that is present,a sit could develop into a tropical cyclone with time over water.
2655. 62901IL
Quoting 2653. cardinalcyn:
Damn!!!! I came on here to see what Ex-Dorian was doing this morning and see we have slight arguments going on.. Can we all not play nice together today:))
Peace Out!!

No.
By looking at satellite imagery, shear looks weak over or near Florida and the GOM.
Quoting 2647. Skyepony:
As weak as the Dorian wave is..got to wunder how much to trust the models..anyway the GFDL, the one that's done best with this wave has a sudden change.. Weak & nearer to the east coast of FL than the Straights of FL..


NAM and GFS have it entering the East coast of FL as well (although they cross to the gulf coast). I live along the Treasure Coast. Even as a wave, it's not going to be great for us with all the rain we have already received. I think there will be quite a bit of flooding if that pans out.
Quoting 2646. TheDawnAwakening:


As long as North America is in a +PNA and - NAO, you can expect a rather benign landfall period, with no landfalling hurricanes, models do show something developing off e coast of NC within the next two days heading towards Nova Scotia. Expect that to be non tropical in nature.


I'd like to learn more about this; however, it doesn't seem to fit with neutral ENSO conditions and track histories.
2660. LargoFl
Catching aerosols in a CATS eye



Sample data from the Cloud Physics Lidar - a predecessor of CATS - over the Western Atlantic is representative of airborne lidar data, showing cloud height and internal structure and boundary layer aerosol. Image Credit: NASA
2662. Thrawst
.
Well not much to see here so I guess I'll check back later. You'll try and play nice now.
2664. LargoFl
Looks like whole lotta rotation going on.

Quoting 2639. DataNerd:



As long as a well casing is done properly and these morons stop using unstable untested uncased water wells there is no problem at all with fracking.

And unfortunately since these same types of people are against new nuclear we have to get the energy from somewhere. Or should we burn more coal and keep breathing that nice benzene ash?

I have no sympathy for them at all they get what they deserve.


pffft. 6 % of all new frack wells fail first inspection, 60% fail in thirty years and 100% fail within 100 years. Sooo, all the water supplies anywhere near fracking will be contaminated within 100 years. Ohh, 85% of all wells in the US are now fracked ones, but they are hiding the data.



Fracking is hardly leakproof
By Josh Fox and Barbara Arrindell
Updated 10:57 am, Wednesday, June 20, 2012


Fracking Hazards Obscured in Failure to Disclose Wells

By Benjamin Haas, Jim Polson, Phil Kuntz & Ben Elgin - Aug 14, 2012 6:26 PM ET


This one from the UK has some nice links in it too.


First UK fracking leak as Dart Energy wells fail
Posted on April 14, 2013 by fred
Quoting 2562. Grothar:


Sorry, I never drank alcohol of any kind and never will. After 4 years on the blog, I think I am entitled to lose my temper at least twice which I admittedly have done in the past month. For most, that is quite a record. And I do not need Valium. I just need the same respect accorded to me as I give to everyone else. When there are issues on the blog which do not conform to my thinking I do not engage in arguments, I simply withdraw and compose myself. I defend people who I feel are being unfairly targeted. I try my best to deflect as many arguments as possible. For 95% of the time I enjoy the blog and the people enormously. I am very fond of many of them. Since I am now quite restricted in my activities and can hardly walk to pick up my own mail, I feel I am at least entitled to an occasional rant.

Perhaps if anyone feels I have been unfair with them, they should reflect on their own entries and behavior. I have always had the greatest admiration and respect for the members on here (with the obvious exceptions. And as long as I am here, I will continue to do so.


We are all allowed to rant, Gro. Some of us are getting frustrated with some blog posters as well.
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 301443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
2670. wxmod
I didn't post this while a TS was hitting Hawaii. This is from the 28th. North Pole webcam. The pooled water drained through the new crack in the ice just right of the sensor. A day earlier it looked like a nice beach scene.

Raining here in Miami now. Looks like Key West is getting a little of it too.

Morning All.

The wave entering stage right has quite an atmospheric presence. Big plume of dust coming with this one however.



WEATHER BULLETIN No. 02
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression “‪#‎JolinaPH‬”
Issued at 11:00 PM, 30 July 2013



Tropical Depression “JOLINA” has maintained its strength as it continues to move west northwestward over the west Philippine sea.

Location of center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “JOLINA” was estimated based on all available data at 350 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.3°N, 116.7°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 11 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “JOLINA” is expected to be at 600 km West of Subic, Zambales tomorrow evening or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

• Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 15 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

• Tropical Depression “JOLINA” will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to ocassionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over MIMAROPA and Western Visayas.

• The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Seems like the e pac is the main game this year there all ready all most up too there 7th name storm and if it where not for 91E 93E and 95E if they had be come name storms we would have a full house
2676. Kumo
Quoting 2639. DataNerd:



As long as a well casing is done properly and these morons stop using unstable untested uncased water wells there is no problem at all with fracking.

And unfortunately since these same types of people are against new nuclear we have to get the energy from somewhere. Or should we burn more coal and keep breathing that nice benzene ash?

I have no sympathy for them at all they get what they deserve.


Agreed.

I'd like to see more R&D done into Carbon Capture and Sequestration. It might be expensive, but all technology becomes cheaper as it improves. Scientists have figured out how to reconstitute combustible hydrocarbons from atmospheric CO2, unfortunately it is currently a waste of energy to do so.

I'd also like to see more R&D done into taking the nuclear waste that we have just sitting around in storage pools the country and turning it into a harmless but useful substance.

Put both of these in an effective business model, without raising taxes and you can potentially have a solution to energy concerns and AGW that appeals to most everyone.
Big plume is an understatement.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

The wave entering stage right has quite an atmospheric presence. Big plume of dust coming with this one however.





And look at all that dust too.
2679. vis0
Quoting 2335. vis0:
CREDIT: UNISYS (IR / WV / VIS
%uFFFDi removed caused a frame problem will try on my blog instead, just was in a hurry


Credit:UNISYS IR / WV / VIS
NEXT change as to my way of thinking is August 5-7 when this 2 week anomaly period ends and the next 2 month wx trend begins. It'll be interesting to see what happens to any TF that began between July 22-24 till Aug 5-7. What happens as to after Aug ~7th. Since i did not study NASA star output charts (as stated on my blog that took me ~2 months) So whatever the trend is will be news to me be it active or not.


UNISYS goes-e sat_vis_east_3xloop
I wonder if the remnants of dead Dorian will mean an moisture laden future for the SE US
Dust of that magnitude will shut down the Eastern & Central Atlantic for a while. SST's should rise though.
2682. ncstorm
Quoting 2634. VR46L:


LOL !!!

Hmmm Unless Dorian defies the odds its going to be grim for the weather bloggers for a couple of weeks :(


home grown mischief and GOM flareups may be all we have to rely on for a while..
Quoting 2680. GeorgiaStormz:
I wonder if the remnants of dead Dorian will mean an moisture laden future for the SE US


IMO, not likely. Any convection associated with xDorian was due to the diffluent interaction mostly with the TUTT. Look at a sfc map, there's overwhelming subsidence, high pressure which is why it never got going. Very difficult to produce t'storms in an environment like that.
Here is a true colour Image of the SAL plume....


Click here for larger image
Quoting 2614. hydrus:
Wow...Thank you for posting that Skye..Seems like when I get info that tells me how bad it is, something comes along to let me know that its worse. It concerns me what will happen in our own lifetimes, nevermind what will happen far into the future.


At least this year the melt is not nearly as bad as last years. While this past week has been bad, the year so far is pretty much average.

Today:

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

2012:

Link
Quoting 2666. unknowncomic:
Looks like whole lotta rotation going on.



Seems Dorian has slowed down with DMAX last night?
Just saw this on Levi's tweet. CMC ensembles got something going on 10 days from now.

Typically a dust plume of that magnitude will make it across the Atlantic.
2689. LargoFl
Quoting 2670. wxmod:
I didn't post this while a TS was hitting Hawaii. This is from the 28th. North Pole webcam. The pooled water drained through the new crack in the ice just right of the sensor. A day earlier it looked like a nice beach scene.



That web cam bouy is hundreds of miles from the North Pole.

I see it posted all the time as AT the pole and this is categorically FALSE.(Its the green one, FYI.)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just saw this on Levi's tweet. CMC ensembles got something going on 10 days from now.


Does the CMC still stand for Constantly Making Chaos?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

very fast! 20% to t.d in 24 hours
2693. LargoFl
Quoting 2684. AussieStorm:
Here is a true colour Image of the SAL plume....


Click here for larger image




Man that's thick.
2695. ricderr
hey groth...,,i feel as you do...i'm here to enjoy myself...learn...and also to enjoy reading comments of those that i respect and like....as for rants...heck..i've had my share...and like you..i don't drink..although i ask people how their recovery is doing.....gotta love the occasional drunken rants on here....the only thing is...once you rant...you have to be able to stand (pun intended) and face the crap that will get flung back atcha
2696. LargoFl
2697. ricderr
Just saw this on Levi's tweet. CMC ensembles got something going on 10 days from now.


someday...oh someday....a ten day forecast will have better odds than winning the lottery
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Man that's thick.


Could cut the air with a knife
2699. LargoFl
the ULL and Dorian are getting married.
2701. 7544
k looks like that blob that was part of 91L is moving due north ? if thats the case fla would not get anything once thats gone its lights out imo unless it makes a quick turn west dont see that happening tho
Quoting LargoFl:


What happened to the models a few days ago that said in 120hrs we'd have a Cat 1 Hurricane??

Intensity forecasts are useless right now.
Quoting 2691. AussieStorm:

Does the CMC still stand for Constantly Making Chaos?
Levi had told me and few others in chat that CMC are picky when it come to Africa waves and they usually don't hype them up. This is also ensembles. I'll say watch these the next few days and see. Mid-August is coming up, after all... the real season starts.
2704. LargoFl
Quoting 2697. ricderr:
Just saw this on Levi's tweet. CMC ensembles got something going on 10 days from now.


someday...oh someday....a ten day forecast will have better odds than winning the lottery
It's just something to watch out for... we'll have to watch next few runs of CMC to confirm this.
2706. LargoFl
2707. auspiv
Quoting 2667. indianrivguy:


pffft. 6 % of all new frack wells fail first inspection, 60% fail in thirty years and 100% fail within 100 years.

Source please.

The first frac job was conducted in the 1947 (source: http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/PIC/pic32.html) . I would love to know how you know they will have all failed in the next 34 years.
Sooo, all the water supplies anywhere near fracking will be contaminated within 100 years. Ohh, 85% of all wells in the US are now fracked ones, but they are hiding the data.

Source please.


Another fun fact: not all wells are fractured. Texas, for example, is still full of drilling locations where fracturing is not required or desirable. If you don't frac a well, why would you report it to fracfocus.org?
Quoting 2677. ProgressivePulse:
Big plume is an understatement.



If this keeps up, the Atlantic is gon fill up and Africa is gon hollow out. Then we will have a continent right next door and the Atlantic will be waaaay over there... xD
Quoting 2680. GeorgiaStormz:
I wonder if the remnants of dead Dorian will mean an moisture laden future for the SE US


I'm expecting it to. Will at least get the dirty side of it.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Levi had told me and few others in chat that CMC are picky when it come to Africa waves and they usually don't hype them up. This is also ensembles. I'll say watch these the next few days and see. Mid-August is coming up, after all... the real season starts.


I look for model consensus at about 144hrs.

Anyways I'm going to bed and listen to the rain that is about to fall within the next hour. But then again, It may not reach me and may just fizzle out.


Loop
2711. Gearsts
Getting shear
2712. SLU
Okayyyyyy

Quoting 2676. Kumo:


Agreed.

I'd like to see more R&D done into Carbon Capture and Sequestration. It might be expensive, but all technology becomes cheaper as it improves. Scientists have figured out how to reconstitute combustible hydrocarbons from atmospheric CO2, unfortunately it is currently a waste of energy to do so.

I'd also like to see more R&D done into taking the nuclear waste that we have just sitting around in storage pools the country and turning it into a harmless but useful substance.

Put both of these in an effective business model, without raising taxes and you can potentially have a solution to energy concerns and AGW that appeals to most everyone.


Actually spent nuclear fuel rods ARE being recycled... into new fuel rods. It's a simple matter of re-blending, sort of like recycling aluminum cans, blended with some fresh aluminum.

This is already reducing the storage stocks at generating facilites; and will eventually result in a complete re-use, re-fuel, almost infinite cycle. Much safer and far more economical. GO NUKE!!

Quoting 2684. AussieStorm:
Here is a true colour Image of the SAL plume....


Click here for larger image


No way any tropical system can survive that.
2715. LargoFl
(THEY FOUND A NEW GAS LEAK AT THE TAVARAS GAS PLANT TODAY).......This is how horrible it was.........................tavares Battalion Commander Eric Wages said five workers walked up to a command center firefighters set up near the plant Monday night with skin hanging off their arms, torso and faces. He said their arms were outstretched and they were in complete shock.

The Blue Rhino plant, which is northwest of Orlando, refilled propane tanks typically used for barbecues and other uses. There were some 53,000 20-gallon tanks at the plant on Monday.
Quoting 2710. AussieStorm:


I look for model consensus at about 144hrs.

Anyways I'm going to bed and listen to the rain that is about to fall within the next hour. But then again, It may not reach me and may just fizzle out.


Loop
I agree, it's way far out to be sure of this. We'll have to see if next few runs will support this first.
2717. ricderr
It's just something to watch out for... we'll have to watch next few runs of CMC to confirm this.


blue...if we got excited...or gave up looking for storms with every 10 day forecast...well..i guess the politest way i could say it is we would look pretty stupid more often than not....it's a day before august...something IS coming...regardless if the models say yay or nay
2718. scott39
Quoting 2702. AussieStorm:


What happened to the models a few days ago that said in 120hrs we'd have a Cat 1 Hurricane??

Intensity forecasts are useless right now.
I wouldnt say useless. ex Dorian still has a 20% chance to develope. You know as well as I do that weather forecasts are fluid, and that it could drop to 10% today and if the enviroment warrants 24 hours from now, the % could increase again. Or it could just dissapate all together.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2720. ncstorm
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
On this Tuesday morning, NHC is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven-E in the eastern North Pacific basin. The new depression is located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and expected to strengthen as it moves generally west-northwestward over the next few days. In the Atlantic basin, the remnants of Dorian continue to be poorly organized and redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is unlikely. For all the details, please visit www.hurricanes.gov.
2721. wxmod
Quoting 2690. seminolesfan:


That web cam bouy is hundreds of miles from the North Pole.

I see it posted all the time as AT the pole and this is categorically FALSE.(Its the green one, FYI.)


Actually, it's 200 miles from the north pole. Relatively close.
2722. GatorWX
If anyone knows both weather and climate well, I have an interesting question/theory I posted on Dr Rood's blog. It's interesting to me anyway because it seems like I've reached my depth limit thinking about it and haven't come to a conclusion because of this factor, lack of knowledge and perhaps a bit misguided. Any scientific input would be very much helpful and appreciated. It has nothing to do with man, yet the laws of physics.

Thanks,

Josh
Ya know what looks like is going to happen I believe that its going to form a center further east under the convection and it looks like the environment is slowly getting better looking than it looked this morning, may be an illusion this thing just wont give in
From my research on the NAO phase and the period from July 1st through Aug 10th from 1995-2013, there is no strong climatic indications for what Aug 1-10 will ultimately be like. Although there will be a strong -NAO pattern in place according to the 00z GFS and Euro 7-10 day outlook, there is no uniformity in tropical cyclone development or tracks. I can just tell you the statistics. There were five years with no July tropical storms or hurricanes, the average amount of July storms was 1.7, a peak of 5 storms developed in July in 2005 of course the busiest year on record. The previous years with just two named storms in the month of July occurred in 2003, 1997, 2006, and 2011. Two years ended up average or below average, while the other two years had above average storms. So data remains inconclusive. We know this with pattern recognition, a positive NAO and -PNA correlate between one another, ridging in the east and troughing in the west, while a - NAO and + PNA correlate to a ridge in the west with a trough in the east.

Storms that occurred in this period fromJuly 1st through Aug 10th:
Positive NAO
1.) developed off the East Coast and recurred out to sea
2.) developed in the GOM and hit land

Negative NAO
1.) GOM storms
2.) Bahamas recurvature, or Florida landfall
3.) central Atlantic development recurvature or dissipation

Neutral NAO 1 storm
1.) eastern Atlantic development recurvature off of NC

Transitioning NAO neg to pos to neg
1.) storms developed near 10n: 20w eastern Atlantic then recurved into central Atlantic
2.) Caribbean development moved into GOM landfall
3.) central Atlantic development recurvature

Transitioning pos to neg to pos NAO
1.) central Atlantic development then recurve
2.) east coast development then recurve

Transitioning neg to pos NAO
1.) Caribbean to Yucatan tracked storm
2.) Caribbean to GOM storm track
3.) east coast development and landfall over Nantucket, MA
4.) NE Lesser Antilles to central Atlantic recurvature
5.) central Atlantic dissipation
6.) recurvature
7.) central tropical Atlantic to NC landfall

Transitioning pos to neg NAO
1.) central Tropical Atlantic dissipation
2.) NW Atlantic development and dissipation
3.) Caribbean to GOM landfall 2 storms
4.) GOM
5.) SW Atlantic dissipation and development
6.) east coast storm, no landfall
7.) Bahamas to Florida track

Transitioning neg to pos to neg to pos NAO
1.) Caribbean Sea to GOM Florida landfall

Quoting 2724. TheDawnAwakening:
From my research on the NAO phase and the period from July 1st through Aug 10th from 1995-2013, there is no strong climatic indications for what Aug 1-10 will ultimately be like. Although there will be a strong -NAO pattern in place according to the 00z GFS and Euro 7-10 day outlook, there is no uniformity in tropical cyclone development or tracks. I can just tell you the statistics. There were five years with no July tropical storms or hurricanes, the average amount of July storms was 1.7, a peak of 5 storms developed in July in 2005 of course the busiest year on record. The previous years with just two named storms in the month of July occurred in 2003, 1997, 2006, and 2011. Two years ended up average or below average, while the other two years had above average storms. So data remains inconclusive. We know this with pattern recognition, a positive NAO and -PNA correlate between one another, ridging in the east and troughing in the west, while a - NAO and PNA correlate to a ridge in the west with a trough in the east.

Storms that occurred in this period fromJuly 1st through Aug 10th:
Positive NAO
1.) developed off the East Coast and recurred out to sea
2.) developed in the GOM and hit land

Negative NAO
1.) GOM storms
2.) Bahamas recurvature, or Florida landfall
3.) central Atlantic development recurvature or dissipation

Neutral NAO 1 storm
1.) eastern Atlantic development recurvature off of NC

Transitioning NAO neg to pos to neg
1.) storms developed near 10n: 20w eastern Atlantic then recurved into central Atlantic
2.) Caribbean development moved into GOM landfall
3.) central Atlantic development recurvature

Transitioning pos to neg to pos NAO
1.) central Atlantic development then recurve
2.) east coast development then recurve

Transitioning neg to pos NAO
1.) Caribbean to Yucatan tracked storm
2.) Caribbean to GOM storm track
3.) east coast development and landfall over Nantucket, MA
4.) NE Lesser Antilles to central Atlantic recurvature
5.) central Atlantic dissipation
6.) recurvature
7.) central tropical Atlantic to NC landfall

Transitioning pos to neg NAO
1.) central Tropical Atlantic dissipation
2.) NW Atlantic development and dissipation
3.) Caribbean to GOM landfall 2 storms
4.) GOM
5.) SW Atlantic dissipation and development
6.) east coast storm, no landfall
7.) Bahamas to Florida track

Transitioning neg to pos to neg to pos NAO
1.) Caribbean Sea to GOM Florida landfall

What will we have the the rest of the season.
Quoting 2711. Gearsts:
Getting shear
what direction is big swirl moving?
2727. Pallis
Quoting 2715. LargoFl:
(THEY FOUND A NEW GAS LEAK AT THE TAVARAS GAS PLANT TODAY).......This is how horrible it was.........................tavares Battalion Commander Eric Wages said five workers walked up to a command center firefighters set up near the plant Monday night with skin hanging off their arms, torso and faces. He said their arms were outstretched and they were in complete shock.

The Blue Rhino plant, which is northwest of Orlando, refilled propane tanks typically used for barbecues and other uses. There were some 53,000 20-gallon tanks at the plant on Monday.
That is terrible, and not to change the subject but we got two blue rhino tanks in a row in Sarasota that were faulty.Our backyard was filled with gas up to my waist. What is wrong with that company?
2728. Pallis
Quoting 2713. MechEngMet:


Actually spent nuclear fuel rods ARE being recycled... into new fuel rods. It's a simple matter of re-blending, sort of like recycling aluminum cans, blended with some fresh aluminum.

This is already reducing the storage stocks at generating facilites; and will eventually result in a complete re-use, re-fuel, almost infinite cycle. Much safer and far more economical. GO NUKE!!

Anything left could be blasted towards the sun on a slow moving rocket.
2729. Pallis
Quoting 2704. LargoFl:
Thanks,my window is down in my truck.