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Canada's 2nd Largest Fire on Record Spreading Smoke to Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on July 13, 2013

A massive fire burning in northern Quebec is Canada's second largest fire since fire records began in 1959, according to the Canadian Forest Service. The fire was more than twice the size of Rhode Island on Tuesday--1,621,000 acres. Called the Eastmain fire, the near-record blaze was ignited by lightning on May 25, and was burning along a 100-km front near the east shore of James Bay by the village of Eastmain. At times, the fire spread at 19 mph (30 kph). The fire cut power to Montreal's subway system and to 10% of the population of Quebec (500,000 customers) on July 4, when smoke from the fire ionized the air by key hydroelectric power lines, causing a cascade failure.


Figure 1. On July 4, 2013, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image of wildfires burning in western Quebec near James Bay. Red outlines indicate hot spots where MODIS detected unusually warm surface temperatures associated with fire. The Eastmain fire, which became the 2nd largest fire since 1959 in Canada at 1.6 million acres, is at the upper left of the image, just east of James Bay. Other fires near Nemiscau, Quebec (about 150 - 200 km to the southeast of Eastmain) are also burning, but these patches are "only" 120,000 - 200,000 acres. MODIS also observed smoke from the fires moving across the Atlantic Ocean on July 5, July 6, and July 7. By July 8, smoke was drifting over Scandinavia. Image credit: NASA.

The largest fire in Canadian history was the 2,119,000 acre fire that burned in 1979 in the Northwest Territories. For comparison, the total acreage burned by wildfires in the U.S. as of July 4, 2013 was 1.9 million acres, so the Eastmain fire by itself has burned almost as large an area. The fire's spread is being limited by the Opinaca Reservoir on its east, and by areas burned in 2002 to the south. The fire spread rapidly last week into a patch along its northern and northeastern sides that burned in 1989 (click hereto see the very impressive spread of the fire between 16:45 UTC and 18:22 UTC last Thursday from the Suomi NPP VIIRS shortwave IR instrument; look on the northeastern front of the fire, which is inside the former 1989 fire patch--it spreads extraordinarily rapidly at approximately 10 mph.) While cool and relatively wet weather is expected in Quebec during the coming week, keeping fire danger low, there is speculation by some Canadian fire experts that the Eastmain fire will burn the entire summer unless there are a significant number of consecutive rainy days.


Figure 2. Dr. Jason Box extracts a core sample from the Greenland Ice Sheet on July 9, 2013, during the DarkSnow Project. The core will be analyzed to determine if smoke from wildfires is contributing to melting of the ice sheet by darkening it.

Canadian fire smoke reaches Europe
Smoke from this summer's fires in Quebec have crossed the Atlantic and reached Scandanavia, according to ScienceDaily.com. The smoke also passed over Greenland when the crowd source-funded DarkSnow Project was taking samples of the Greenland ice. The DarkSnow Project was designed to see if forest fires are significantly darkening the Greenland Ice Sheet, contributing to melt.

Climate change and fire suppression in Canada
Fire suppression policies are different in Canada than in the U.S. In areas where these fire are burning, there is no direct fire suppression unless fire is near villages and hydroelectric facilities. Nevertheless, fire suppression costs $500 million per year in Canada. "In areas with high timber or other values, a full fire-suppression response is used in attempts to control fires as quickly as possible. In areas with low values at risk to fire, a modified fire-suppression response, which attempts to control fires in a limited way, is usually used: isolated values threatened by fire are protected, or the fire is simply monitored. While only 5% of the fires detected during 1990–2004 received a modified response, they accounted for about 60% of the area burned " (Hirsch et al., 2006.)
 
Fire suppression efficiency depends on many factors, including fire danger, the size at which the fire is attacked, and the number of fires already burning. According to Cummings (2005) and Martell and Sun (2008), fire suppression can significantly reduce area burned in boreal forests. Fire suppression can reduce area burned by means of initial attack, which reduces the number of large fires. Consequently, fire suppression agencies are efficient when the fire danger is low and when there is not that much fire already burning, a situation that will be less common in the near future. For Ontario, Podur and Wotton (2010) projected "a doubling of area burned in the Intensive and Measured fire management zones of Ontario by the decade of 2040, and an eightfold increase in area burned by the end of the 21st century" due to climate change (IPCC A2 scenario.) Fires that are too intense to control will overwhelm the fire management system and cause major increases in area burned.

Another study (Boulanger et al. 2013) predicted for 2040 in eastern Canada a 2.2- and 2.4-fold increase in the number of fires and the annual area burned, respectively, mostly as a result of an increase in extreme fire-weather normals and drought. As extreme fire danger would occur later in the fire season on average, the fire season would shift slightly later (5–20 days) in the summer. However, if broadleaf species become more common in this area as a result of climate change, this may offset the climate change impact on drought, as broadleaf trees are less flammable than coniferous trees (Girardin et al. 2013).


Video 1. Maxime Duperré, traveling in a truck near Nemiscau, Quebec, took this video of one of the massive fires burning in Quebec this July.

References
 Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., Gray, D. R., Le Goff, H., Lefort, P., Morissette, J. 2013. Fire regime zonation under curent and future climate over eastern Canada. Ecol. Appl. 23: 904-923. 
 
Cumming, S.G. 2005. Effective fire suppression in the boreal forests. Can. J. For. Res. 35: 772-786.
 
Girardin, M.P., Ali, A. A., Carcaillet, C., Blarquez, O., Hély, C., Terrier, A., Genries, A., Bergeron, Y. 2013. Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires. New Phytologist (In Press).
 
Hirsch, K.G.; Fuglem, P., Technical Coordinators. 2006. Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: background syntheses, analyses, and perspectives. Can. Counc. For. Minist., Nat. Resour. Can., Can. For. Serv., North. For. Cent., Edmonton, AB.
 
Martell, D. and Sun, H. 2008. The impact of fire suppression, vegetation, and weather on the area burned by lightning-caused fires in Ontario. Can. J. For. Res. 38:1547-1563.
 
D. Podur, J. and Wotton, B. M. 2010. Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity ? Ecological Modelling 221:1301-1309

A tough year for natural disasters in Canada
This summer's huge fires in Quebec have been caused by what is being called the driest summer in 40 years in the James Bay region. However, other portions of Canada have received record rains that have triggered two of the most damaging floods in Canadian history. The first of these floods hit Calgary, Alberta in mid-June, causing $3.8 billion in damage--the most expensive flood ever to hit Canada, and the second most expensive natural disaster of any kind. And on July 8, Toronto was hit with its heaviest 1-day rainfall on record, with a preliminary damage estimate by an official from the Insurance Bureau of Canada of $600 million, which would make it the 4th costliest flood in Canadian history. Here are the top five most damaging floods in Canada, with the non-bold faced entries taken from EM-DAT (unadjusted for inflation):

1) $3.8 billion, June 2013, Calgary, Alberta
2) $0.8 billion, May 2011, St. Andrew, Manitoba
3) $0.7 billion, July 1996, Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region, Quebec
4) $0.6 billion, July 2013, Toronto, Ontario
5) $0.4 billion, June 2005, Alberta

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is relatively quiet. A small non-tropical area of low pressure is developing near the coast of Alabama along a stalled-out cold front, and the remains of Chantal are moving northwards towards the North Carolina coast. Neither of these areas appears to be of concern, and in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave both of these areas a 10% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of of anything in the Atlantic over the next seven days. If conditions remain quiet, my next post will be on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1485. CybrTeddy:


Yup, 2008 had Dolly, Bertha, and Cristobal all at once.
Quoting 1486. ncstorm:


thats in August..The CFS goes out to 1092 hours..FANTASY!!!
I noticed that. I'm not so sure it's fantasy so much as a sign that models expect conditions to improve radically in the next 2 - 4 weeks... and 1092 hrs works out to what, 45 days? That's the beginning of September, actually....
1502. beell
Quoting 1496. Jedkins01:


Yeah most definitely, I suspect because this reached the eastern side of Florida first, thunderstorms almost became "too numerous" such that many other areas have cooled due to overcast conditions from thunderstorm tops and thus miss out on the rain.


There may have been some upper convergence (sinking or at least not much "lift") over the panhandle.
1503. nigel20
Quoting SLU:


Thanks.

Todays was very hot. 88F I believe.

The batting performance was really poor. I plan to go see the games this weekend in St. Lucia weather permitting ;)

Hopefully they'll put up a better performance on Tuesday and thereafter.
Quoting 1335. sar2401:
What's interesting about the Pliocene, especially the middle Pliocene, is that Co2 levels then were somehwere between 450 to 550 ppm (depending on whose numbers you want to believe), and the level of Co2 persisted for at least a million years. Since humans as we know them today didn't exist, something else caused this increase in Co2, and continued to cause this increase over that vast time span. What exactly happened, how long did it take, and why did it continue for so long?

The important climate science concept you should use to start your search would be the "carbon cycle."
https://www.google.com/search?q=the+carbon+cycle
It has been ongoing since before humans and will continue long after. It's the rates that will be different.
Quoting 1335. sar2401:
I've read study after [study] that there's no way to stop the rise in Co2 and we're [basically] all doomed (my paraphrase, of course). However, something happened about 2.2 million years ago that did revers that process, and did so [substantially], with no intervention from humans.

Probably a good place to start would be to look at the rates of changes, after you look into the carbon cycle.
Quoting 1335. sar2401:
Studying a known event that is evidently a pretty good analogue to what's being predicted to happen again just seems like a common sense thing to do. I'm sure I'm not the first person to think of this, but I haven't found any reliable studies that give me the answers I'm looking for.

I'm a bit surprised... many of the first things discussed in my climate science coursework was review of past climate over thousands to millions of years. Much of the climate science of today puts the changes in temperature and greenhouse gases in context of changes observed in the geologic record. This is part of how we already know what is going to happen due to our collective actions, and without even needing a computer model...
Quoting 1499. MAweatherboy1:

The CFS is not a weather model, it's a climate model. It has no skill, absolutely zero, in predicting individual storms. However, it is showing, in this particular run, that conditions across the Atlantic in August would be favorable for several CV storms to form, which is what many are saying will happen.


Oh. Thanks MA!
1506. SLU
Quoting 1503. nigel20:

Hopefully they'll put up a better performance on Tuesday and thereafter.


I hope!
1507. BDAwx
Quoting 1485. CybrTeddy:


Yup, 2008 had Dolly, Bertha, and Cristobal all at once.


Ahh good ole Bertha! First Tropical Cyclone I've been in during July. Amazing storm to track, and had an eye like feature that brought calm over half the island.
1508. GatorWX


Buoy just offshore of the SW Yucatan.

Link
Quoting 1499. MAweatherboy1:

The CFS is not a weather model, it's a climate model. It has no skill, absolutely zero, in predicting individual storms. However, it is showing, in this particular run, that conditions across the Atlantic in August would be favorable for several CV storms to form, which is what many are saying will happen.
So my take is on the money. I'd also notice the trend... maybe Caribboy with his 1999 retrospective isn't that far off the mark...
This looks like a tropical storm over Africa emerging into the Atlantic on the 18z GFS in 10 days or so:



JB tweets about less ACE for season.


Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 1h

ACE this year NHEM 62% of normal and 400 mb temp/rh shows why. Temps not far from norm, but rh below!


Link
1512. ncstorm
Quoting 1501. BahaHurican:
I noticed that. I'm not so sure it's fantasy so much as a sign that models expect conditions to improve radically in the next 2 - 4 weeks... and 1092 hrs works out to what, 45 days? That's the beginning of September, actually....


1092 hours is fantasy..
1513. GatorWX
5-day plot - Continuous Wind Direction at 42056
urghhh
1514. barbamz
Secrets of African rivers
EuroNews Video 09/07 16:11 CET

Going with the flow, euronews discovers the link between rivers and global warming, with the focus on Africa.

"In this programme, we join a research expedition between the Zimbabwe and Zambia border. In many ways, the rivers on the African continent remain a mystery. Today, European scientists join forces with their African colleagues in search of answers on the role played by African rivers in the global climate," says euronews science producer Denis Loctier.

Rivers naturally produce greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), that contribute to global warming. Land use and vegetation patterns along the riverside influence river biochemistry. An international research project aims to improve our understanding of how the rivers in Africa work.


More see link above.

Good afternoon from late night Germany. It has been a very nice summer day. Crops obviously are doing well in my region; though a little rain would be welcomed. I took some photos near our little weekend house. Series is here.


Like a Fata Morgana: the Ronneburg (Hassia) comes in sight over the golden fields.
Quoting 1439. Grothar:


Yes, the blob NE of Puerto Rico. That is why blob watching should not be left to the amateurs. :)



Lol... Sorry Blob Master.
Tom Taylor made a good graphic about storm formation and the MJO and posted it in chat.

my predictions for the remainder of this season : 5 more name storms 2 hurricanes 1 cat 3
I figured we'd see the operational GFS catch up with its ensembles. The 18z holds that tropical storm all the way to the end of its run, though it doesn't really strengthen it.



It could easily drop this on the 0z run, but given the support the ensembles have shown for this storm I think it may start to find some consistency.
1519. 7544
hmm south fla radar lighting up pretty good now interesting and look at the ull movin ssw now to the east of the state more rain there
To Thunderstommike , it's alot more than that !
1521. Thrawst
Potential severe weather outbreaks in the Northeast US on days 5-7

1522. Patrap
Quoting 1518. MAweatherboy1:
I figured we'd see the operational GFS catch up with its ensembles. The 18z holds that tropical storm all the way to the end of its run, though it doesn't really strengthen it.



It could easily drop this on the 0z run, but given the support the ensembles have shown for this storm I think it may start to find some consistency.


Too far north!! But 384H = LOL.
Quoting 1521. Thrawst:
Potential severe weather outbreaks in the Northeast US on days 5-7


I'll take that than the heat up here any day. I'm sweating a lot just after doing a little lawn work.
62 % of ACE?? lots of tropical storms not too many hurricanes thats what i figure
1526. Thrawst
Quoting 1523. CaribBoy:


Too far north!! But 384H = LOL.


Too north for you.. lol

That ridge would steer that thing generally West.. towards the Bahamas and the Florida coast.
1527. GatorWX
1528. Levi32
Single CFS runs don't mean much, but if you take a whole slew of them, you can tell if the model is showing a significant change in conditions. If you take the last 48 forecasts of the CFS for 25 days from now (August 8), you see many lows populating the MDR east of the Caribbean, with some passing north of the Antilles. Every red number is a closed low on one of the 48 runs.

Quoting 1480. ncstorm:
Latest CFS run













So nothing for me in the CFS! Where is the ridge? I don't like that run. 1 month away anyway :)
Quoting 1526. Thrawst:


Too north for you.. lol

That ridge would steer that thing generally West.. towards the Bahamas and the Florida coast.


Too early to know my friend.
Quoting 1528. Levi32:
Single CFS runs don't mean much, but if you take a whole slew of them, you can tell if the model is showing a significant change in conditions. If you take the last 48 forecasts of the CFS for 25 days from now (August 8), you see many lows populating the MDR east of the Caribbean, with some passing north of the Antilles. Every red number is a closed low on one of the 48 runs.


The GFS ensembles have indicated the potential for tropical development during the final days of July and first few days of August as well, and this is demonstrated by the latest 18z GFS run that actually shows a developed tropical cyclone. It remains to be seen if the model's being too quick with development as a result of being overzealous about the timing and strength of the upcoming MJO pulse.

1532. Patrap
Quoting 1524. wxchaser97:

I'll take that than the heat up here any day. I'm sweating a lot just after doing a little lawn work.


You poor baby.
Quoting 1528. Levi32:
Single CFS runs don't mean much, but if you take a whole slew of them, you can tell if the model is showing a significant change in conditions. If you take the last 48 forecasts of the CFS for 25 days from now (August 8), you see many lows populating the MDR east of the Caribbean, with some passing north of the Antilles. Every red number is a closed low on one of the 48 runs.



Is that meaningful or pretty much what climatology looks like?

Not dissing the CFS but it would be more newsworthy if it showed very few or no lows forming at all in August than that scattering of lows it shows.
Kept it short and simple, I really wish I was psychic and could see into the future about the pattern that will take shape during the peak months of hurricane season.

Blog Update: 7/14/13
1536. Patrap
Time rolls forward for a reason,..
Quoting 1525. islander101010:
62 % of ACE?? lots of tropical storms not too many hurricanes thats what i figure


That is what JB thinks.
Quoting 1509. BahaHurican:
So my take is on the money. I'd also notice the trend... maybe Caribboy with his 1999 retrospective isn't that far off the mark...


Mmm would be fun to get one or two slow moving strong TS :-) But it's too much asking I think.... considering we don't even have a rainy month so far.
Quoting 1518. MAweatherboy1:
I figured we'd see the operational GFS catch up with its ensembles. The 18z holds that tropical storm all the way to the end of its run, though it doesn't really strengthen it.



It could easily drop this on the 0z run, but given the support the ensembles have shown for this storm I think it may start to find some consistency.
Question now will be can it move up the timeframe or like where it is showing the position of the storm in 384 hrs. on the next run will be at 372 hrs.
1540. txjac
Anybody on from Texas today that is getting some rain? Been watching it getting closer and closer to me on radar ...sitting here with fingers crossed. Right now I'm sitting in sunlight ...hopefully maybe even some clouds soon?
1541. ncstorm
Wasnt the CFS one of the models predicting a pattern with an el nino a month ago and sent the blog in a tizzy?
Quoting 1533. KoritheMan:


You poor baby.

:(
Kori pls. I did get $45 though and a present from my neighbor who just got back from vacation (A swiss army knife, but I already accidentally cut my finger with it).
Not trusting the models at all.It is however good entertainment.I better send it off to that hollywood director or Scy-fy.
Quoting 1542. wxchaser97:

:(
Kori pls. I did get $45 though and a present from my neighbor who just got back from vacation (A swiss army knife, but I already accidentally cut my finger with it).

Good job.
1545. barbamz
Quoting 1543. washingtonian115:
Not trusting the models at all.It is however good entertainment.I better send it off to that hollywood director or Scy-fy.


Lol, even The Guardian is covering "Sharknado" with an in depth research (especially concerning the public response).


Sharknado: the most terribly good movie of the summer
Alan Yuhas, guardian.co.uk, Sunday 14 July 2013 15.10 BST
What's not to love? The awful production values, the silly one-liners, and the great mockery of it all on the Internet.
1546. Patrap
Aurora Borealis Forecast for Sunday, July 14, 2013

Latest Forecast, the Aurora will be at 'STORM' LEVEL!


Solar storm...

Link
Sun is up, 93W



Quoting 1542. wxchaser97:

:(
Kori pls. I did get $45 though and a present from my neighbor who just got back from vacation (A swiss army knife, but I already accidentally cut my finger with it).


Multi-tool I assume? I prefer my single bladed knife over the 3 Swiss army multi-tool knives I have.

Quoting 1544. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good job.


What she, err, I mean he, said.
GFS showing TS in 18z, virtually Dorian..
Using the data from SLU's chart earlier I plotted the normalized seasonal activity from 1974-2007 as a function of MJO Phase.



ACE, Named Storm Days, Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days with MJO Phase

NOTE: Phases 1-4 appear twice on the charts below to better capture the peaks and troughs in activity.





Storm Formation with MJO Phase

NOTE: Phases 1-4 appear twice on the charts below to better capture the peaks and troughs in activity.





Looking at the graph, we can see TC activity and formation is highest during phases 1 and 2 and lowest during phases 6 and 7. If we look more closely we can see that the slope of the line going from the peak in activity (phases 1/2) to the trough in activity (phases 6/7) is less steep than the slope of the line going from the trough in activity (phases 6/7) to the peak in activity (phases 1/2). In other words, the MJO is more favorable east of us than west of us. Having the MJO 3 phases east of us (phases 4/5) is more favorable than having the MJO 3 phases west of us (phases 6/7). If you've stuck with me this far, you may be wondering why that is. This may seem especially surprising if you look at the chart below since there is greater downward motion in our basin during phases 4/5 than during phases 6/7.

Velocity Potential Anomalies (blue = favorable upward motion, orange = unfavorable downward motion) and Upper Level Wind Anomaly (vectors) as a function of MJO Phase




Why is it better to have the MJO east of us than west of us?


Trade winds blow out of the east in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, upper level winds blow predominantly out of the west, except in the deep tropics where they do weakly blow out of the east. Since the winds blow in opposite directions, this creates vertical wind shear, which is bad for tropical cyclones. When the MJO is east of us, however, low level convergence and upper level divergence are to the east of us. This can weaken trade winds and enhance upper level easterly winds which will give us less vertical wind shear. When the MJO is west of us, the opposite is true; trade winds are enhanced, upper level westerlies are strengthened and thus wind shear goes up. Therefore, when the MJO is east of us, trade winds are slackened and upper-level winds are more favorable. Furthermore, since African Easterly Waves (AEWs) form to the east of us over the African Sahel, having the MJO east of us can give us stronger waves off Africa.



-------------------------

To recap, having the MJO in phases 1 and 2 is most favorable for formation and overall TC activity. Phases 6 and 7 are least favorable. However, TCs can obviously form at any time and having the MJO east of us is more favorable than having it west of us. Having the MJO in our region of the world is even more important during the early part of the season because conditions are much more sensitive. It is also worth noting that the MJO is stronger (more amplified) in the early part of the season which means it can lend more favorable conditions for TC formation. However, monitoring the MJO is important at all times of the year because it is the single most significant source of intraseasonal variability. It is the only metric we have to predict TC activity in the deep tropics during the one week to one month period.

MJO Amplitude throughout the Year


Quoting 1545. barbamz:


Lol, even The Guardian is covering "Sharknado" with an in depth research (especially concerning the public response).


Sharknado: the most terribly good movie of the summer
Alan Yuhas, guardian.co.uk, Sunday 14 July 2013 15.10 BST
What's not to love? The awful production values, the silly one-liners, and the great mockery of it all on the Internet.
on another website I debunked every false piece of science this movie had.It was actually fun because the movie is so bad that you just have to tune in.Even if you don't want to.
Envoirment:
Sun is up, 93W



Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration

At 4:00 AM PhST, a Low Pressure Area was estimated at 360 km east of Guiuan, eastern Samar (11.1°N, 129.4°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone across Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao.
Quoting 1550. stormchaser19:
GFS showing TS in 18z, virtually Dorian..
I don't like that pattern one bit.
Quoting 1540. txjac:
Anybody on from Texas today that is getting some rain? Been watching it getting closer and closer to me on radar ...sitting here with fingers crossed. Right now I'm sitting in sunlight ...hopefully maybe even some clouds soon?


HEY txjac. Hope you get some rain today. I've been watching that stuff on Pat's radar for about 2 hours now. It got to the Neches river and acted like it hit a brick wall. Not a drop here. It now seems to be breaking up and moving away. Beaumont got rocked pretty good.

KBMT-12
Storm on the west side of Beaumont extending over towards Sour Lake is producing torrential rain, frequent lightning and even funnel clouds.


Here...

Temp
79.7°F
Switch to Celsius
2mph
Hi: 89°F
Lo: 72°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: SSE 10
Heat Index: 80°F
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 71°F
Avg Wind: 0 WNW
Pressure: 29.86"
Rain/Month: 0.75"
Quoting 1469. HurrMichaelOrl:


Haven't had any rainfall of more than a trace here in almost a week, except for .10" a few days ago. I agree, the rainfall development, distribution, movement, etc, has been very odd. I, for one, have been disappointed at the lack of exciting weather lately but I know that other areas of the State that need it more are getting beneficial rain.


You're preaching to the choir here as well; my spot in SE Cape has watched rain pass by literally on all sides for weeks. Several times I've managed to get in under the edges of passing showers/storms, but this has been by far The Strangest of the 5 rainy seasons I've lived here for. No matter which direction a storm has approached me from for the past 3 weeks or so, it has either gone around me or been stopped dead in its tracks!

Happily, I've had enough rain here that everything has kept growing. And the mosquitoes - Wow!-they'd make you think we're getting rain in feet instead of inches!

1557. Patrap
Quoting 1555. AtHomeInTX:


HEY txjac. Hope you get some rain today. I've been watching that stuff on Pat's radar for about 2 hours now. It got to the Neches river and acted like it hit a brick wall. Not a drop here. It now seems to be breaking up and moving away. Beaumont got rocked pretty good.

KBMT-12
Storm on the west side of Beaumont extending over towards Sour Lake is producing torrential rain, frequent lightning and even funnel clouds.


Here...

Temp
79.7°F
Switch to Celsius
2mph
Hi: 89°F
Lo: 72°F
Rain: 0.00"
Gust: SSE 10
Heat Index: 80°F
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 71°F
Avg Wind: 0 WNW
Pressure: 29.86"
Rain/Month: 0.75"
Link

Pretty cool and long lived boundary moving through west TX. Link
1559. JRRP
Quoting 1550. stormchaser19:
GFS showing TS in 18z, virtually Dorian..
This is laughable.According to the GFS a few days ago Dorian was suppose to be ripping through the Antilies and Chantal a strong tropical storm in the gulf.Just like with that failed snow storm..opps not just one failed snow storm but several it showed this year that never materialized.I'll believe it when the actual storm forms (if it does ever).Look I know we're desperate but believing a 16 day forecast will not make the storms come faster..Now I can tell where I'm not wanted and since none of my peeps are on it's time for me to bail like Jerry when he sees Tom.Until then enjoy your Sci-fy disaster flicks (model runs 10+ days out).
1561. Patrap
Quoting 1561. Patrap:


Look at the 0.5 degree base velocity
1563. Grothar
Quoting 1550. stormchaser19:
GFS showing TS in 18z, virtually Dorian..


Yep, at 384 hours. Nowadays, I don't look that far ahead. I'm even paying my cable bills...by the hour.



18z GFS ensembles @ day 16:

1565. 7544
a lot of rain moving south over fl at this hour gro u getting this ?
Quoting 1560. washingtonian115:
This is laughable.According to the GFS a few days ago Dorian was suppose to be ripping through the Antilies and Chantal a strong tropical storm in the gulf.Just like with that failed snow storm..opps not just one failed snow storm but several it showed this year that never materialized.I'll believe it when the actual storm forms (if it does ever).Look I know we're desperate but believing a 16 day forecast will not make the storms come faster..Now I can tell where I'm not wanted and since none of my peeps are on it's time for me to bail like Jerry when he sees Tom.Until then enjoy your Sci-fy disaster flicks (model runs 10+ days out).
where that guy with the username (anotherbogusforcast) when you need him
1567. Patrap
Midland-Odessa
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

we were forcasted to have like 3 to 5 inches of rain here over the past 3 days and only seen a few drops each day not even 1/10 of an inch (ooops again)
1569. Dakster
Quoting 1563. Grothar:


Yep, at 384 hours. Nowadays, I don't look that far ahead. I'm even paying my cable bills...by the hour.





I even heard you were paying your hotel bill by the hour too...
1570. JLPR2
Quoting 1563. Grothar:


Yep, at 384 hours. Nowadays, I don't look that far ahead. I'm even paying my cable bills...by the hour.





Finally something.
And I miss that site. :\ I'm considering paying the subscription.
Quoting 1554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I don't like that pattern one bit.

US landfall pattern. and IM GETTING RAIN RIGHT NOW FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 1566. thunderstromsmike:
where that guy with the username (anotherbogusforcast) when you need him
More than likely the GFS will "push this back" and we'll have to wait until early to mid August for the MJO to swing around.
I will consider not post model runs, when i say " virtually" i mean that is not sure but is a probability, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THIS BLOG??
Quoting 1566. thunderstromsmike:
where that guy with the username (anotherbogusforcast) when you need him
1574. SLU
Quoting 1551. TomTaylor:
Using the data from SLU's chart earlier I plotted the normalized seasonal activity from 1974-2007 as a function of MJO Phase.



ACE, Named Storm Days, Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days with MJO Phase

NOTE: Phases 1-4 appear twice on the charts below to better capture the peaks and troughs in activity.





Storm Formation with MJO Phase

NOTE: Phases 1-4 appear twice on the charts below to better capture the peaks and troughs in activity.





Looking at the graph, we can see TC activity and formation is highest during phases 1 and 2 and lowest during phases 6 and 7. If we look more closely we can see that the slope of the line going from the peak in activity (phases 1/2) to the trough in activity (phases 6/7) is less steep than the slope of the line going from the trough in activity (phases 6/7) to the peak in activity (phases 1/2). In other words, the MJO is more favorable east of us than west of us. Having the MJO 3 phases east of us (phases 4/5) is more favorable than having the MJO 3 phases west of us (phases 6/7). If you've stuck with me this far, you may be wondering why that is. This may seem especially surprising if you look at the chart below since there is greater downward motion in our basin during phases 4/5 than during phases 6/7.

Velocity Potential Anomalies (blue = favorable upward motion, orange = unfavorable downward motion) and Upper Level Wind Anomaly (vectors) as a function of MJO Phase




Why is it better to have the MJO east of us than west of us?


Trade winds blow out of the east in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, upper level winds blow predominantly out of the west, except in the deep tropics where they do weakly blow out of the east. Since the winds blow in opposite directions, this creates vertical wind shear, which is bad for tropical cyclones. When the MJO is east of us, however, low level convergence and upper level divergence are to the east of us. This can weaken trade winds and enhance upper level easterly winds which will give us less vertical wind shear. When the MJO is west of us, the opposite is true; trade winds are enhanced, upper level westerlies are strengthened and thus wind shear goes up. Therefore, when the MJO is east of us, trade winds are slackened and upper-level winds are more favorable. Furthermore, since African Easterly Waves (AEWs) form to the east of us over the African Sahel, having the MJO east of us can give us stronger waves off Africa.



-------------------------

To recap, having the MJO in phases 1 and 2 is most favorable for formation and overall TC activity. Phases 6 and 7 are least favorable. However, TCs can obviously form at any time and having the MJO east of us is more favorable than having it west of us. Having the MJO in our region of the world is even more important during the early part of the season because conditions are much more sensitive. It is also worth noting that the MJO is stronger (more amplified) in the early part of the season which means it can lend more favorable conditions for TC formation. However, monitoring the MJO is important at all times of the year because it is the single most significant source of intraseasonal variability. It is the only metric we have to predict TC activity in the deep tropics during the one week to one month period.

MJO Amplitude throughout the Year




Yeah that's a very fair assessment using empirical evidence to back up your theory.
1575. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
18z GFS ensembles @ day 16:


Well, I guess one day short of August is when they'll all start lining up out in the Atlantic then. :-) Seriously, though, I wonder what the model inputs are to get out to 16 days? Unless they have some kind of super math I've never heard of, it can't be much more than climatology that far out.
1576. Patrap
We are getting RAIN and it is pouring!! Yahoo.....
1578. JLPR2
That one coming into view has been making me go Hmm... since yesterday.

Quoting 1575. sar2401:

Well, I guess one day short of August is when they'll all start lining up out in the Atlantic then. :-) Seriously, though, I wonder what the model inputs are to get out to 16 days? Unless they have some kind of super math I've never heard of, it can't be much more than climatology that far out.
Your absolutely right.It's just climatology.

post 1578.

It will join it's friends in the grave yard.
1580. barbamz
As Canada is still on topic ...
With that good night!

Alberta to help victims in flood zones for last time as province urges people to rebuild on higher ground
Canadian Press | 13/07/14 6:15 PM ET

The Alberta government says it will pay to help flood victims rebuild outside flood zones or protect their homes from future floods, but it warns the offer won%u2019t be the same the next time rivers rise.

The province announced on Sunday that it would provide funding from its disaster recovery program for homeowners to rebuild or relocate to new locations outside flood risk areas.

There will also be funding available through the same program to protect buildings within a flood fringe area with infrastructure such as berms, or by raising a house.

But the government says homeowners in a flood fringe who do not implement mitigation measures to protect against a one-in-100-year flood will not be eligible for the same assistance if there%u2019s another flood.

Premier Alison Redford has already announced an initial $1 billion to kick-start recovery from devastating floods that hit the province last month.

The government says it will introduce legislation this fall to forbid municipalities from approving new developments in floodways, and it says anyone whose property is in a floodway will have it noted on their land title.


Edit:

New wave really is a "speedy Gonzalez", probably because of strong trade winds
Quoting 1578. JLPR2:
That one coming into view has been making me go Hmm... since yesterday.



That is pouch PO9L. I have a blog about it.
1582. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:
I will consider not post model runs, when i say " virtually" i mean that is not sure but is a probability, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THIS BLOG??

Don't take it personal. The models, even in the short run, have been really bad this season, and a lot of us are frustrated by all these predicted storms that fail to materialize. When posting model runs out to 16 days, it's probably better to let the model stand for itself and don't comment about what a predicted low might or might not be. For example, in 16 days, we could have already had a home grown storm in the BOC that became Dorian and had long dissipated before we reached day 16.
Quoting 1575. sar2401:

Well, I guess one day short of August is when they'll all start lining up out in the Atlantic then. :-) Seriously, though, I wonder what the model inputs are to get out to 16 days? Unless they have some kind of super math I've never heard of, it can't be much more than climatology that far out.
Isn't that what Calculus and Dimensional Analysis is all about?
Quoting 1582. sar2401:

Don't take it personal. The models, even in the short run, have been really bad this season, and a lot of us are frustrated by all these predicted storms that fail to materialize. When posting model runs out to 16 days, it's probably better to let the model stand for itself and don't comment about what a predicted low might or might not be. For example, in 16 days, we could have already had a home grown storm in the BOC that became Dorian and had long dissipated before we reached day 16.


Yes. I understand that, but for me also that doesn't mean nothing in part,because like levi said in a older post, the ensemble members are showing the increase of the activity in that region and could eventually get a storm " FANTASY STORM"!!!
you can't call a bogus forecast when is a probability!!!
even though the probability is 1-2% or whatever.
Quoting 1576. Patrap:
Pat what is that backing its way over Texas a retrograding ULL? Looks different. I've been noticing that all day and I don't know why I haven't commented on that until now.
1586. beell
Chasing little red "L"'s all over the map from model run to model run is usually a disappointment if you don't try to come to terms with why it's there in the first place. That may require looking deeper than a surface chart only.

Quoting 1564. TropicalAnalystwx13:
18z GFS ensembles @ day 16:



Still waiting... still hoping... for my deluge lol
Post 1583 I meant Differential Equations.
1589. Patrap
1590. Patrap
1591. Patrap

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
655 PM CDT sun Jul 14 2013


Aviation...
/00z tafs/


Several challenges this evening as the upper low moves west-southwest along
the Red River valley. Timing rounds of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are the biggest
challenge...followed ceilings . Wind direction a minor concern with
speeds expected to remain below 10 kts.


Another band of light-moderate rain/rain showers will affect dfw metropolitan airports
through middle evening with VFR ceilings. Thunderstorms and rain with +ra developing across
eastern OK will likely start rotating more SW or south...as the upper
low slides over northwest Texas around midnight. This is when we could see
the most significant lightning and +ra...along with gusty winds.
Better forcing will begin to shift west toward ksps and kabi area
before sunrise Monday. Though the rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be further west...
the boundary layer will be cool/moist for middle Summer. MVFR ceilings
are likely in this scenario and the best lift shifts over west-
central Texas by middle morning. Conditions should go VFR by
midday/after with vcsh in the forecast for scattered showers
in deep southerly fetch aloft.


For Waco...similar trends overnight with a few stronger cells
already developing near kgop/kinj/and kmnz. Convective conditions
will also improve before sunrise...but MVFR ceilings may prevail
longer in Richer low level moisture.
1592. sar2401
GN, Barb.
Alberta had a chance to pass this legislation after the floods in 2005 and failed to so. I don't have much faith the will do it this time either. Most of Canada and US states already have such laws on their books but Alberta has long trailed the rest of North America in this respect. The biggest issue is that is very difficult and, in some cases. impossible to get flood insurance. Calgary and, to a lesser extent, Edmonton, have had numerous major floods in the past, and insurance companies don't want to write policies to cover known risks. The topography of the Calgary/Edmonton corridor is such that most people can't just move out of the flood plain. About half of Calgary would technically be a flood plain, including almost all the downtown. Calgary is not going to pick up and move, any more than New Orleans did after Katrina. The taxpayers have been footing the bill for paying for flood damage for a long time and, since about 75% of Alberta voters live in the Edmonton/Calgary corridor, I guess it could be argued that this aid has already been paid by the taxes collected by the Province. The only way out is a Provincially sponsored flood insurance program. The people of Alberta are not going to vote for that unless they see a decrease in social program taxes they are already paying.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Using the data from SLU's chart earlier I plotted the normalized seasonal activity from 1974-2007 as a function of MJO Phase.



ACE, Named Storm Days, Hurricane Days, and Major Hurricane Days with MJO Phase

NOTE: Phases 1-4 appear twice on the charts below to better capture the peaks and troughs in activity.





Storm Formation with MJO Phase

NOTE: Phases 1-4 appear twice on the charts below to better capture the peaks and troughs in activity.





Looking at the graph, we can see TC activity and formation is highest during phases 1 and 2 and lowest during phases 6 and 7. If we look more closely we can see that the slope of the line going from the peak in activity (phases 1/2) to the trough in activity (phases 6/7) is less steep than the slope of the line going from the trough in activity (phases 6/7) to the peak in activity (phases 1/2). In other words, the MJO is more favorable east of us than west of us. Having the MJO 3 phases east of us (phases 4/5) is more favorable than having the MJO 3 phases west of us (phases 6/7). If you've stuck with me this far, you may be wondering why that is. This may seem especially surprising if you look at the chart below since there is greater downward motion in our basin during phases 4/5 than during phases 6/7.

Velocity Potential Anomalies (blue = favorable upward motion, orange = unfavorable downward motion) and Upper Level Wind Anomaly (vectors) as a function of MJO Phase




Why is it better to have the MJO east of us than west of us?


Trade winds blow out of the east in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, upper level winds blow predominantly out of the west, except in the deep tropics where they do weakly blow out of the east. Since the winds blow in opposite directions, this creates vertical wind shear, which is bad for tropical cyclones. When the MJO is east of us, however, low level convergence and upper level divergence are to the east of us. This can weaken trade winds and enhance upper level easterly winds which will give us less vertical wind shear. When the MJO is west of us, the opposite is true; trade winds are enhanced, upper level westerlies are strengthened and thus wind shear goes up. Therefore, when the MJO is east of us, trade winds are slackened and upper-level winds are more favorable. Furthermore, since African Easterly Waves (AEWs) form to the east of us over the African Sahel, having the MJO east of us can give us stronger waves off Africa.



-------------------------

To recap, having the MJO in phases 1 and 2 is most favorable for formation and overall TC activity. Phases 6 and 7 are least favorable. However, TCs can obviously form at any time and having the MJO east of us is more favorable than having it west of us. Having the MJO in our region of the world is even more important during the early part of the season because conditions are much more sensitive. It is also worth noting that the MJO is stronger (more amplified) in the early part of the season which means it can lend more favorable conditions for TC formation. However, monitoring the MJO is important at all times of the year because it is the single most significant source of intraseasonal variability. It is the only metric we have to predict TC activity in the deep tropics during the one week to one month period.

MJO Amplitude throughout the Year




Awsome post! enjoyed it
Quoting 1563. Grothar:


Yep, at 384 hours. Nowadays, I don't look that far ahead. I'm even paying my cable bills...by the hour.



That's two runs in a row. Almost time to get excited.
1595. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isn't that what Calculus and Dimensional Analysis is all about?

Noted the Differential Equation correction, but my point is that there are so many variables in the equation that it's hard to imagine that any kind of calculus and differential equations could be accurately used. Since we know so little about the genesis of TC's to begin with, and now we throw in every other high, low, SAL, jet stream, SST's...you name, it, there are lot of things that affect genesis, path, and intensity. I'm sure the math is actually used, but I suspect it's trying to analyze so many things we don't understand that it becomes basically garbage in/garbage out. Hence, the reason why 16 day models tend to be in fantasy land.
Post #1551 by Tony Taylor in my view has to be the post of the year 2013 in Dr Masters blogs.
Quoting 1576. Patrap:

Whats going on right down there at the Yucatan?
1598. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
That's two runs in a row. Almost time to get excited.

LOL. I'll get excited after the 14th run that shows the same low in the same place. Until then, it's more exciting watching paint dry. :-)
1599. Patrap
1600. sar2401
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Post #1551 by Tony Taylor in my view has to be the post of the year in Dr Masters blogs.

I agree. I don't even claim to understand half of it, but it sure is an impressive job of applying logic to known (and some not so known) fact.
1601. Patrap
1602. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Whats going on right down there at the Yucatan?

The last time I was there, it was a lot of parties and half-naked girls on the beach this time of night. :-)
Quoting 1598. sar2401:

LOL. I'll get excited after the 14th run that shows the same low in the same place. Until then, it's more exciting watching paint dry. :-)
This one shows it also.



1605. Patrap
I find the Sherwim Williams Pro Mar 200 Egg Shell Colors fascinating,,,,,,,drying that is.
Dear GTStormChaserCaleb, when you don't like the pattern , what pattern is it that you don't like ?
1607. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes. I understand that, but for me also that doesn't mean nothing in part,because like levi said in a older post, the ensemble members are showing the increase of the activity in that region and could eventually get a storm " FANTASY STORM"!!!
you can't call a bogus forecast when is a probability!!!
even though the probability is 1-2% or whatever.

Indeed, and the fact the GFS ensemble is showing that something of unknown strength and and unknown path might possibly occur at around that point in the Atlantic, even though it's long-winded, is a better way to say it then it might be "virtually Dorian". I haven't seen an accuracy analysis of the GFS at 16 days out but, from my own observations over the years, if there's a 2% chance that low might actually be there in 16 days, there's a much larger percentage chance that it won't be there at all.
1608. Patrap
Look at the lil surface swirl Just off Panama City, Fla..

Quoting 1607. sar2401:

Indeed, and the fact the GFS ensemble is showing that something of unknown strength and and unknown path might possibly occur at around that point in the Atlantic, even though it's long-winded, is a better way to say it then it might be "virtually Dorian". I haven't seen an accuracy analysis of the GFS at 16 days out but, from my own observations over the years, if there's a 2% chance that low might actually be there in 16 days, there's a much larger percentage chance that it won't be there at all.
True. But it is becoming more and more likely each day.
1610. Patrap
Quoting 1606. EyEtoEyE:
Dear GTStormChaserCaleb, when you don't like the pattern , what pattern is it that you don't like ?
The ridge is holding firm and if that storm is still there it would continue on moving west, hopefully it would find a break in the ridge or trough would move off the east coast of the US and move it OTS.
1612. Thrawst
Panorama picture of a storm my cousin saw in Miami the other day.

AMAZING PICTURE CLICK IT
1613. Patrap
The next 60 odd days brings us to the Peak of the Season, Sept 10th.

buckle up,Hang on.



1614. Patrap
Quoting 1612. Thrawst:
Panorama picture of a storm my cousin saw in Miami the other day.

AMAZING PICTURE CLICK IT


1615. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
This one shows it also.




Which is hardly surprising, since the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a "grand ensemble" of the output of several discrete models, including the GFS and the CMC. One would expect that the NAEFS should mirror some aspects of the GFS model, especially if the other models weren't showing anything much happening in that area. It's kind of like throwing walnuts around the yard to keep elephants away and finding the next morning, there were no elephant tracks. The next evening you use almonds and, sure enough, there are no elephant tracks in the yard again. After doing so, we can now say that both walnuts and almonds are effective elephant deterrents. :-)
Thank You , GTStormChaserCaleb.
93W


1618. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
True. But it is becoming more and more likely each day.

No, that's not true. Simply because a model shows a low in the same place on a daily basis doesn't mean it's more likely that that low will be there, it just means the inputs into that model are confirming previous inputs and gaining internal confidence in the output. Just as a recent example, the CMC consistently showed a 990 to 995 mb low in the Gulf off the Florida Panhandle for five days straight. As it turned out, the CMC was completely wrong, even though the model became more confident. With something five or seven days out, you can start looking at things like the jet stream, trade winds, placement of highs and lows, and instability and see if they also confirm that the chance of a model prediction coming true looks more or less likely. With a model 16 days out, there are almost no independent predictors of the models output, so all we have to go on is what the model says. If it continues to show the same or similar scenario, the chance the model may be on to something increases as long as other independent factors also fall into place. It's interesting to see what ensembles see so far out, and it should be noted that this is a place to look for more indications something may be happening, but the fact a model repeats the same scenario may also mean the model is simply wrong multiple numbers of time.
Quoting 1618. sar2401:

No, that's not true. Simply because a model shows a low in the same place on a daily basis doesn't mean it's more likely that that low will be there, it just means the inputs into that model are confirming previous inputs and gaining internal confidence in the output. Just as a recent example, the CMC consistently showed a 990 to 995 mb low in the Gulf off the Florida Panhandle for five days straight. As it turned out, the CMC was completely wrong, even though the model became more confident. With something five or seven days out, you can start looking at things like the jet stream, trade winds, placement of highs and lows, and instability and see if they also confirm that the chance of a model prediction coming true looks more or less likely. With a model 16 days out, there are almost no independent predictors of the models output, so all we have to go on is what the model says. If it continues to show the same or similar scenario, the chance the model may be on to something increases as long as other independent factors also fall into place. It's interesting to see what ensembles see so far out, and it should be noted that this is a place to look for more indications something may be happening, but the fact a model repeats the same scenario may also mean the model is simply wrong multiple numbers of time.
I was reefering to the peak of the season is getting closer and closer...so more activity is more and more likely.
1620. sar2401
Quoting Thrawst:
Panorama picture of a storm my cousin saw in Miami the other day.

AMAZING PICTURE CLICK IT

Very amazing picture. Where was he when he took it, and what kind of software did he use to produce the panorama? I think the only people that wouldn't like it would be the Miami Tourist Bureau. :-)
1621. Patrap
-
1624. Grothar
Quoting 1612. Thrawst:
Panorama picture of a storm my cousin saw in Miami the other day.

AMAZING PICTURE CLICK IT


Phenomenal.
Surface swirl off Panama City, Florida! Patrap, truly it is slow right now. I'd settle for a nice blob out of this surface swirl but upper level winds probably not going to allow that even. Gro, could you use your connections with Poseidon, as you knew him as a boy; and get us a good blob a spinnin?
1626. Patrap
1627. Grothar
Quoting 1578. JLPR2:
That one coming into view has been making me go Hmm... since yesterday.



Yes, I thought the same thing when I saw it the day before yesterday :)




1629. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
I was reefering to the peak of the season is getting closer and closer...so more activity is more and more likely.

Ah, I see. That's true, as we get deeper into August and September, the chances of a TC showing up somewhere in the Atlantic increases greatly. OTOH, the models become even more problematic at that point, just because any of them stand a better chance of being true. I'm pretty confident I could use Paintshop and create a map of the central Atlantic for September 6 and show a developing cyclone somewhere around 20N and 40W and have about a 50/50 chance of it being right, even though it's just a guess based on climatology. :-)
Scattered showers tonight



1631. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I thought the same thing when I saw it the day before yesterday :)





Cue up Taz....
Quoting 1627. Grothar:


Yes, I thought the same thing when I saw it the day before yesterday :)









I saw it 1st
1633. Patrap




850mb Vorticity

Today's been another DUST FREE day! The blue of the sky was just incredible, especially at noon!! I would love to enjoy such conditions more often.

Seriously, the AFRICAN DUST is only ANNOYANCE! It brings hot temps, dry conditions, and ugly skies!
1636. Grothar
Quoting 1578. JLPR2:
That one coming into view has been making me go Hmm... since yesterday.



Seriously, JLPR, that is a good shot you got there. It already looks ominous.

Quoting 1623. jamesrainier:


Is it raining in Texas? Or optical illusion?
1638. Grothar
Quoting 1631. sar2401:

Cue up Taz....


You catch on fast. :)
Looking more closely at that surface spin-up off Florida's SW coast, it looks pretty vigorous and dvorak imagery shows it to be quite healthy. Interesting feature, wonder if it has a chance to make it to aoi? Perfectly round and the only game in town at the moment.
1640. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Surface swirl off Panama City, Florida! Patrap, truly it is slow right now. I'd settle for a nice blob out of this surface swirl but upper level winds probably not going to allow that even. Gro, could you use your connections with Poseidon, as you knew him as a boy; and get us a good blob a spinnin?

Trib, there's not even a shower off PCB, let alone a swirl. :-) If you want a little swirl to look at, there's one just off the Big Bend area, but look fast, because it will be gone in a few hours. Even Gro's extensive connections aren't going to be of any help over the next week or so.
1641. Patrap
1642. Patrap
1643. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


You catch on fast. :)

Hey, after eight years hanging around here, even I get most of the inside jokes now. The only thing we haven't had much use for yet is shower curtains. :-)
Quoting 1637. PedleyCA:


Is it raining in Texas? Or optical illusion?


In Plano and the trees haven't been moving. It rained when I wasn't looking, as the sidewalk is wet. Has been cloudy and cool all day. Not like what one would expect for the middle of July.

Edit--lightly raining now.
Quoting 1641. Patrap:


I think it's safe to say the SAL is weaker than average for July :-)
1646. Grothar
Quoting 1625. Tribucanes:
Surface swirl off Panama City, Florida! Patrap, truly it is slow right now. I'd settle for a nice blob out of this surface swirl but upper level winds probably not going to allow that even. Gro, could you use your connections with Poseidon, as you knew him as a boy; and get us a good blob a spinnin?


Trust me. There will be a blob in a few days. Patience.
1647. Grothar
It looks like the east Atlantic is very moist. I don't think any wave would have trouble with dry air for awhile.

1648. Patrap
Quoting 1645. CaribBoy:


I think it's safe to say the SAL is weaker than average for July :-)
Hmm. What other excuse can I find for no activity?
Quoting 1636. Grothar:


Seriously, JLPR, that is a good shot you got there. It already looks ominous.



I have a blog about this pouch PO9L if you or anyone wants to visit to discuss about it.

Link
The upper-level low that originated in the Northeast has made it to central Oklahoma and should continue retrograding over the next two to three days. It will probably reach western New Mexico before fizzling out.

1652. JLPR2
Quoting 1627. Grothar:


Yes, I thought the same thing when I saw it the day before yesterday :)






Aww come on!
I guess if I want to say "I saw it first" I'll have to start watching them while they are over Ethiopia. xD
1653. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Looking more closely at that surface spin-up off Florida's SW coast, it looks pretty vigorous and dvorak imagery shows it to be quite healthy. Interesting feature, wonder if it has a chance to make it to aoi? Perfectly round and the only game in town at the moment.

Do you mean the one off the west coast, west of the Everglades? It gets a passing mention in the 8:00 TWO:

WITHIN 48 HOURS...RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INFLUENCED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COASTLINES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN GULF BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

Just some clumping of storms from that difluent pattern that's so weak it's not even called an ULL. Southeastely flow from the A-B high will continue about three more days until we finally get a ridge move into the Ohio Valley. Nothing to it, I'm afraid.
1654. Patrap
<--- was watching reruns of "Rat Patrol" from the 60's..

1655. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upper-level low that originated in the Northeast has made it to central Oklahoma and should continue retrograding over the next two to three days. It will probably reach western New Mexico before fizzling out.


I don't think I've ever seen such a geographically large retrograde of a boundary (I don't think it really quailifes as front any longer) from an ULL is summer in my 50 years of observing weather. What is your much more learned explanation for this than I have? Seems like this should have some kind of influence on the pattern of upcoming storms at some point, but I'm just not smart enough to figure this out.
Quoting 1651. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upper-level low that originated in the Northeast has made it to central Oklahoma and should continue retrograding over the next two to three days. It will probably reach western New Mexico before fizzling out.

The anti-trough.
Quoting 1654. Patrap:
<--- was watching reruns of "Rat Patrol" from the 60's..

Watched that all the time as a kid. Where are re-runs of that?
1658. txjac
Quoting 1577. TexasHurricane05:
We are getting RAIN and it is pouring!! Yahoo.....


Where are you located Texas Hurrican? Still waiting for mine on the west side of Houston ...lots of lightening ...some thunder ...but no rain as of yet
Quoting 1649. unknowncomic:
Hmm. What other excuse can I find for no activity?


Unfavorable MJO, maybe.
Quoting 1659. CaribBoy:


Unfavorable MJO, maybe.
Maybe strong trade winds and too strong of HP.
Quoting 1651. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upper-level low that originated in the Northeast has made it to central Oklahoma and should continue retrograding over the next two to three days. It will probably reach western New Mexico before fizzling out.



Do they call it prograding when it moves east?
1662. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I have a blog about this pouch PO9L if you or anyone wants to visit to discuss about it.

Link

It's a good one too. Thanks.
Ex Chantal has been deadly.

1 Dead, 2 Missing In Rip Currents Off Hunting Island

I have also heard a 16 year old went missing in the water this afternoon here.

1664. Patrap
Quoting 1664. Patrap:


YouTUBE
Cool, thanks.
Quoting 1661. DonnieBwkGA:


Do they call it prograding when it moves east?

There's not really a set word for the direction, by the way. Some say backing instead of retrograding like I used. But yeah, some also use propagating for an upper-level low moving east.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's not really a set word for the direction, by the way. Some say backing instead of retrograding like I used. But yeah, some also use propagating for an upper-level low moving east.


Yep, exactly.

Propagating is eastward moving, retrograding is westward. (Well in the Northern Hemisphere anyway lol)
Quoting 1655. sar2401:

I don't think I've ever seen such a geographically large retrograde of a boundary (I don't think it really quailifes as front any longer) from an ULL is summer in my 50 years of observing weather. What is your much more learned explanation for this than I have? Seems like this should have some kind of influence on the pattern of upcoming storms at some point, but I'm just not smart enough to figure this out.

High pressure has existed in the Southwest United States for days now. A secondary area of high pressure has formed over the Northeast, and the two have bridged. As a result, the upper-level low has been forced from its starting position in Pennsylvania and is now backing west-southwestward under the southern periphery of the feature(s).

propagating not prograding. OK :)
1671. txjac
It's sprinkling here ...street is wet ...loving it.
Quoting 1661. DonnieBwkGA:


Do they call it prograding when it moves east?


No, they call that Xtrp :)
Weird



Everyone's been talking about a 16 year old boy going missing in the ocean late this afternoon here but can't find one whisper of it on the net.
more rain movin in
1676. Patrap
Some nice Westward moving storms in Oklahoma. Definitely a rarity

1678. Patrap
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Quoting 1668. TropicalAnalystwx13:

High pressure has existed in the Southwest United States for days now. A secondary area of high pressure has formed over the Northeast, and the two have bridged. As a result, the upper-level low has been forced from its starting position in Pennsylvania and is now backing west-southwestward under the southern periphery of the feature(s).



TA, I have a question for you. Why does my austin forecast have 5 straight days of rain chances, which hasn't happened since 2010? Some heavy synoptics I'm not seeing here, but I'm more of a weather groupie than band member.
wow!
Fox 30 in Jacksonville still has this headline on the front of their web page

Hurricane Hunter finds "Chantal" still a tropical storm
What are the rain chances redwagon? If they are 30% or 40% I doubt you'll get rain all 5 days.
1683. JRRP
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I thought the same thing when I saw it the day before yesterday :)





nice wave train
1685. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Fox 30 in Jacksonville still has this headline on the front of their web page

Hurricane Hunter finds "Chantal" still a tropical storm

LOL. They also think a certain trial is still going on. I dn't think I'd want to depend on them for a "First Alert" on anything. :-0
big tropical wave on land with lots of rain -90F
Quoting 1679. redwagon:


TA, I have a question for you. Why does my austin forecast have 5 straight days of rain chances, which hasn't happened since 2010? Some heavy synoptics I'm not seeing here, but I'm more of a weather groupie than band member.

Forcing associated with the upper-level low to your north-northeast and a trailing surface trough east of you should be a spark for shower and thunderstorm activity through tomorrow night. Thereafter, the low is expected to become a non-factor and easterlies are forecast to overtake your region. This should pull in deep Gulf moisture and give a continued chance of precipitation until the mammoth of a ridge much farther north builds in and brings fairer weather.
1688. Thrawst
Quoting 1620. sar2401:

Very amazing picture. Where was he when he took it, and what kind of software did he use to produce the panorama? I think the only people that wouldn't like it would be the Miami Tourist Bureau. :-)


I believe he used his iPhone 5 and its panorama capabilities!

He took it from his apartment complex in Sunny Isles Beach, FL. Yeah I hear they don't like it when mother nature goes against their nickname of their state (sunshine state) lol.
Sar2401 I saw that too. I didn't want to bring up the Zimmerman topic.

I am 80 miles south of Savannah and 80 miles north of Jax. We are supposedly covered by tv news in both markets but mostly ignored.
1690. GatorWX
Quoting 1675. SFLWeatherman:
more rain movin in


At least, watching the radar and satellites, it's pretty evident our extremely wet pattern will abate for at least some time. Should see sun tomorrow, especially on the East coast.
Quoting 1668. TropicalAnalystwx13:

High pressure has existed in the Southwest United States for days now. A secondary area of high pressure has formed over the Northeast, and the two have bridged. As a result, the upper-level low has been forced from its starting position in Pennsylvania and is now backing west-southwestward under the southern periphery of the feature(s).



What caused the highs to bridge?
1692. GatorWX
Quoting 1678. Patrap:
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI



A lot of things spinning Pat. Been noticing it all over the place, raises a few hairs.
Quoting 1681. DonnieBwkGA:
Fox 30 in Jacksonville still has this headline on the front of their web page

Hurricane Hunter finds "Chantal" still a tropical storm

exsqeeze me? other than a lot of coming and going in the GOM (i.e. 'much ado about nothing') and that monster wave still on the African continent, I don't see a lot going on.
That large TW is worrying, as moisture is pushing into the caribbean, so when it exits it shouldn't have problems with dry air at all while tracking westwards and into the caribbean (if it tracks that way).



There's currently a lot of shear though



But that will likely change before the waves enters. This week should be quite interesting.
1695. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

High pressure has existed in the Southwest United States for days now. A secondary area of high pressure has formed over the Northeast, and the two have bridged. As a result, the upper-level low has been forced from its starting position in Pennsylvania and is now backing west-southwestward under the southern periphery of the feature(s).


Wow, that's quite an amazing bridge! Is the high pressure shown on the East Coast an extension of the A-B High? It appears to be so on the surface map. At least that weakness has allowed the trough to shift far enough west to give East Texas some rain. It appears to almost an identical setup to what we had at the begining of July except we don't have a 94L to pump more moisture up into that trough under the bridge. This has surely been a weird weather month so far.
Quoting 1694. Envoirment:
That large TW is worrying, as moisture is pushing into the caribbean, so when it exits it shouldn't have problems with dry air at all while tracking westwards and into the caribbean (if it tracks that way).



There's currently a lot of shear though



But that will likely change before the waves enters. This week should be quite interesting.


This is what NHC said about that wave at 8 PM:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N48W TO 09N44W AND MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND HAS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT IS SHOWING DRY AIR SPREADING ALONG THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE LACK OF CONVECTION. THIS WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY.
anyway nighty night boys and girls.
mondays are always the worst for me so off to wunderland.
1698. Patrap
1699. Patrap
Quoting 1697. Chicklit:
anyway nighty night boys and girls.
mondays are always the worst for me so off to wunderland.


G'night chicklit, dream da dreams of a dreamer'
Quoting 1699. Patrap:


G'night chicklit, dream da dreams of a dreamer'

always do. tanks bro
1701. GatorWX
Can you imagine the track of a storm if it were to spin up off the ecoast of the Yucatan. I think it would be quite interesting.
1702. sar2401
Quoting Envoirment:
That large TW is worrying, as moisture is pushing into the caribbean, so when it exits it shouldn't have problems with dry air at all while tracking westwards and into the caribbean (if it tracks that way).



There's currently a lot of shear though



But that will likely change before the waves enters. This week should be quite interesting.

There's supposed to be a strong ridge set up over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday, and that will push some drier air out into the Gulf. Instabilities are still average or below average, and the trades don't favor storm formation right now.

Another thing we sometimes forget is there is always convection over the Yucatan in the summer. The vast majority is diurnal and it dies off after sunset, just like what we're seeing now over the Yucatan. I don't know how many thunderstorms occur over the Yucatan during an average summer but it must be in the thousands. What I look for is thunderstorms that don't die off after dark but keep going and get better organized. That's when I get concerned about what might be coming from the west.
1703. GatorWX
Quoting 1702. sar2401:

There's supposed to be a strong ridge set up over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday, and that will push some drier air out into the Gulf. Instabilities are still average or below average, and the trades don't favor storm formation right now.

Another thing we sometimes forget is there is always convection over the Yucatan in the summer. The vast majority is diurnal and it dies off after sunset, just like what we're seeing now over the Yucatan. I don't know how many thunderstorms occur over the Yucatan during an average summer but it must be in the thousands. What I look for is thunderstorms that don't die off after dark but keep going and get better organized. That's when I get concerned about what might be coming from the west.


yes, good advice.
Quoting 1701. GatorWX:
Can you imagine the track of a storm if it were to spin up off the ecoast of the Yucatan. I think it would be quite interesting.
it would be interesting.Then we will have Dorian.
Time: 11:39 PM EDT/8:39 PM PDT

Aurora Borealis Forecast for Sunday, July 14, 2013

Latest Forecast, the Aurora will be at 'STORM' LEVEL!

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program Estimates that . . .
in 1 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 3.67 -- Active.
in 17 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.33 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL! (It's On!!)
in 32 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL! (It's On!!)
in 46 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.67 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL!
in 64 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.33 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL!

1706. 7544
Quoting 1675. SFLWeatherman:
more rain movin in


moving west ?
Quoting 1694. Envoirment:
That large TW is worrying, as moisture is pushing into the caribbean, so when it exits it shouldn't have problems with dry air at all while tracking westwards and into the caribbean (if it tracks that way).



There's currently a lot of shear though



But that will likely change before the waves enters. This week should be quite interesting.
Maybe Dorian will form this week after all.
1708. nigel20
Quoting Patrap:

2005 was really scary for us in Jamaica...especially during the month of July. I'm still amazed at the level of activity that we saw in 2005.

Good evening fellow bloggers!
Quoting 1653. sar2401:

Do you mean the one off the west coast, west of the Everglades? It gets a passing mention in the 8:00 TWO:

WITHIN 48 HOURS...RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INFLUENCED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COASTLINES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN GULF BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

Just some clumping of storms from that difluent pattern that's so weak it's not even called an ULL. Southeastely flow from the A-B high will continue about three more days until we finally get a ridge move into the Ohio Valley. Nothing to it, I'm afraid.
SO THAT IS A AOI.

Current Satellite,looks interesting.
Quoting 1687. TropicalAnalystwx13:

the mammoth of a ridge much farther north builds in and brings fairer weather.


Thank you. It's been fun watching you grow and take command of your knowledge over the years.

Is mammoth of a ridge = our normal Death Ridge? We are WAY ahead so far in preventing the permaridge from even getting it's fangs in, keeping us open to cyclones that don't curl up and die upon approach.

Can a tropical system beat this mammoth ridge? Is centex's question.
1712. GatorWX
hmm....... I don't know how you post WU radar.

KW

I know a few others have been posting it too. It'd be interesting to see a long frame, long range view.
Interesting facts: The last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin was Hurricane Felix in 2007 it also was the last hurricane to make landfall as a Category 5 in Puerto Cabezas and Miskito Cays Archipelago. The last major hurricane to hit the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and it made landfall in the US as a Category 3 hurricane in Cape Romano, Florida. The last Category 5 hurricane to hit the US was Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and it made landfall in Homestead, Florida.
Yes, there's a wave train in Africa, but I wouldn't pay attention to them until one of them got a decent spin. Most of tropical waves doesn't make it out Africa.
1715. GatorWX
Much better view.

KW NOAA long range loop
1716. JLPR2
Quoting 1710. HurricaneAndre:

Current Satellite,looks interesting.


Yes it does, we'll have to wait and see how it reacts to water. None of the models show anything so there's a good chance it will fall apart.
Biological Hazard in USA on Monday, 15 July, 2013 at 03:22 (03:22 AM) UTC.
Description
Scientists are trying to determine what caused millions of shrimp-like critters known as krill to die and wash ashore along 250 miles of coast from northern California to southern Oregon last month. Scientists say the strandings were reported from Newport, Ore. to McKinleyville in northern Humboldt County in mid-June, making it the geographically largest krill die-off on record. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat reports one theory is that a shift in the wind caught the animals near the ocean surface and caused them to be swept ashore. Officials say an examination of 10 krill found all were female and most carried sperm packets, suggesting they may have perished just after mating. Scientists have noted an abundance of krill that have drawn a concentration of whales and salmon this year.
1718. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Interesting facts: The last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin was Hurricane Felix in 2007 it also was the last hurricane to make landfall as a Category 5 in Puerto Cabezas and Miskito Cays Archipelago. The last major hurricane to hit the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and it made landfall in the US as a Category 3 hurricane in Cape Romano, Florida. The last Category 5 hurricane to hit the US was Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and it made landfall in Homestead, Florida.

Hey Caleb! Maybe 2013 could provide us with the first cat 5 since 2007. I still think thar hurricane Igor (2010) was a cat 5, but we'll never know for sure.
93W
Maganda Harpon

Weather update for Philippines.

Low Pressure Area designated Invest 93W moving in from the east will cause heavy showers/rain with possible flash flooding
from Central Luzon/ Baguio City south to Leyte Gulf/Ormoc City.
Please take care and heed all local warnings.



Philippine Loop.

MTSAT Visible West Loop

MTSAT IR West Colorized Loop
Quoting 1695. sar2401:

Wow, that's quite an amazing bridge! Is the high pressure shown on the East Coast an extension of the A-B High? It appears to be so on the surface map. At least that weakness has allowed the trough to shift far enough west to give East Texas some rain. It appears to almost an identical setup to what we had at the begining of July except we don't have a 94L to pump more moisture up into that trough under the bridge. This has surely been a weird weather month so far.

Not really. There's a big weakness between the ridge over the Northeast and the high near the Azores.
Quoting 1718. nigel20:

Hey Caleb! Maybe 2013 could provide us with the first cat 5 since 2007. I still think thar hurricane Igor (2010) was a cat 5, but we'll never know for sure.
Hi Nigel! Yeah you might be right about Igor being a 5. I still firmly believe Ike was a 3, just look at the damage he caused, but of other significance look at how a hurricane could reshape the geography of the land:



invest 93W looking very good right now
Quoting 1711. redwagon:


Thank you. It's been fun watching you grow and take command of your knowledge over the years.

Is mammoth of a ridge = our normal Death Ridge? We are WAY ahead so far in preventing the permaridge from even getting it's fangs in, keeping us open to cyclones that don't curl up and die upon approach.

Can a tropical system beat this mammoth ridge? Is centex's question.

A 597 decameter area of high pressure in the Northeast probably counts as more than a death ridge in that location and would be equal to a death ridge across the Southern Plains.

What do you mean by beat the ridge? Tropical cyclones can't go head on into a ridge of high pressure. Any system underneath the high would be steered due west.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
invest 93W looking very good right now


Lets see what it looks like after Philippines.
1726. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hi Nigel! Yeah you might be right about Igor being a 5. I still firmly believe Ike was a 3, just look at the damage he caused, but of other significance look at how a hurricane could reshape the geography of the land:




Yeah, everything was obliterated with the exception of an house...A storm like Ike would have been extremely destructive had it hit a densely populated area.

Portmore (a residential city next to Kingston), Jamaica with a population of 200 000 people who be very vulnerable to such a surge though it's a bit protected by the Palisadoes peninsula and mangroves.
00z GFS 192 hrs. looks like a vigorous trough pushes off the East Coast and weakens the Bermuda High:

1728. nigel20
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, everything was obliterated with the exception of an house...A storm like Ike would have been extremely destructive had it hit a densely populated area.

Portmore (a residential city next to Kingston), Jamaica with a population of 200 000 people who be very vulnerable to such a surge though it's a bit protected by the Palisadoes peninsula and mangroves.

I need to read what I write before I post it. The "who" should have been would.
Quoting 1728. nigel20:

I need to read what I write before I post it. The "who" should have been would.
That's ok it's late so the hands and eyes don't operate as they should do. :P
Quoting 1713. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Interesting facts: The last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin was Hurricane Felix in 2007 it also was the last hurricane to make landfall as a Category 5 in Puerto Cabezas and Miskito Cays Archipelago. The last major hurricane to hit the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and it made landfall in the US as a Category 3 hurricane in Cape Romano, Florida. The last Category 5 hurricane to hit the US was Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and it made landfall in Homestead, Florida.

It has also been 2,822 days (including today, July 15)...the longest stretch in recorded history...between major hurricane landfalls on the United States.
At 300 hrs. out here comes the BEAST from the East. Yeah I know 300 hrs. out take it with a grain of salt, but just for the count that is 3 runs now.

1732. Dakster
Quoting 1724. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A 597 decameter area of high pressure in the Northeast probably counts as more than a death ridge in that location and would be equal to a death ridge across the Southern Plains.

What do you mean by beat the ridge? Tropical cyclones can't go head on into a ridge of high pressure. Any system underneath the high would be steered due west.


Unless it pumps the ridge.
1733. Dakster
Quoting 1731. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At 300 hrs. out here comes the BEAST from the East. Yeah I know 300 hrs. out take it with a grain of salt, but just for the count that is 3 runs now.



300 hours out starts to put things closer to the 'heart' of the season.
1734. marou2
Quoting 1731. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At 300 hrs. out here comes the BEAST from the East. Yeah I know 300 hrs. out take it with a grain of salt, but just for the count that is 3 runs now.

300 hours is sure not exat, but the GFS may show us the first signs that things are going to heat up by the end of the month.
Quoting 1732. Dakster:


Unless it pumps the ridge.
Or bust through a trough. :P
1736. Dakster
Quoting 1735. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Or bust through a trough. :P


Yes... Either way.

1737. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's ok it's late so the hands and eyes don't operate as they should do. :P

I guess I'm a bit tired, so good night all! :)
Quoting 1717. Skyepony:
Biological Hazard in USA on Monday, 15 July, 2013 at 03:22 (03:22 AM) UTC.
Description
Scientists are trying to determine what caused millions of shrimp-like critters known as krill to die and wash ashore along 250 miles of coast from northern California to southern Oregon last month. Scientists say the strandings were reported from Newport, Ore. to McKinleyville in northern Humboldt County in mid-June, making it the geographically largest krill die-off on record. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat reports one theory is that a shift in the wind caught the animals near the ocean surface and caused them to be swept ashore. Officials say an examination of 10 krill found all were female and most carried sperm packets, suggesting they may have perished just after mating. Scientists have noted an abundance of krill that have drawn a concentration of whales and salmon this year.


I followed your link, and from there hit the tab for RSOE EDIS's AlertMap. What a cool find! I hadn't seen this map before. While it doesn't have comprehensive coverage (geographically speaking), what is there is quite interesting. Thanks for posting this.
Quoting 1731. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At 300 hrs. out here comes the BEAST from the East. Yeah I know 300 hrs. out take it with a grain of salt, but just for the count that is 3 runs now.

no more vigorous trough pushes off the East Coast anymore
Quoting 1727. GTstormChaserCaleb:
00z GFS 192 hrs. looks like a vigorous trough pushes off the East Coast and weakens the Bermuda High:

no hurricanes or tropical storms on this map its mean notting at all
00Z XD

1742. JRRP
1743. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


What caused the highs to bridge?

Looks like our expert has gone to bed so I'll give it a shot, We had two very unusual systems. The first was the well established high over the Western US that has caused all the record heat we've been reading about. The second was an extension of the Bermuda high all the way into the northeast US. There has to be an area of lower pressure between two highs. Nature abhors a vacuum, so the high pressure tries to fill the low. Usually you don't have two such strong highs next to each other and, if you do, there's a deep low that separates them. In this case, the low is a long, skinny trough that's only even average deep down by the Gulf. Each high flowed together at the north, weak end of the trough, so we end up with a bridge high that covers almost the whole country. As I wrote earlier, I've never seen anything like this in 50 years of weather observing, so you're getting a chance to see a fairly rare event.
TW: I meant beat any or all ridges inching into TX. We are amazingly bereft of one, and that's an anomaly in itself.

Oh, I forgot the premise: Texas needs each and every cyclone it can get, while we're 'open'.
FANTASY!!!
here the tropical wave the modeles are pick up on.
Models are exactly correct...as I said no tropical storm 10 days then storms will form late July as the mjo pushes back into quad 1 per the gfs...from the current cod position. This is a combination of generally low pressures over africa and will favor long track cape verdes...
big tropical wave if you see on here!!
1749. sar2401
Quoting hurricanes2018:
no hurricanes or tropical storms on this map its mean notting at all

I don't have a clue what you're talking about. If a strong low pressure system pushed off the East Coast and weakens the Bermuda high, it changes almost everything about where any storms that form might go. A weaker high means it would be more likely for storms to travel up the east coast or even recurve out to sea instead of getting into the Gulf or going to Mexico or Central America.

If you don't understand the significance of a post by someone with a lot more knowledge than you do, ask him to explain it, but don't post inane comments like that. You'll get added to a lot of ignore lists if you keep it up.
I just had an Orange Juice poll pimpin my ridge. Is this new? Do I have to out-mouse an advertisement to get wx info? Really?
Quoting 1749. sar2401:

I don't have a clue what you're talking about. If a strong low pressure system pushed off the East Coast and weakens the Bermuda high, it changes almost everything about where any storms that form might go. A weaker high means it would be more likely for storms to travel up the east coast or even recurve out to sea instead of getting into the Gulf or going to Mexico or Central America.

If you don't understand the significance of a post by someone with a lot more knowledge than you do, ask him to explain it, but don't post inane comments like that. You'll get added to a lot of ignore lists if you keep it up.

The troughs will move really fast and play no implication as there is no cyclone right now forming. We are in POS NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION. I have seen no signs of it breaking down in the long range...with warm temps likely across the the conus through the month of july.
Quoting 1746. hurricanes2018:
here the tropical wave the modeles are pick up on.
Models are picking up storm past 300 hours from now which is almost 2 weeks away. I doubt this tropical wave is the storm models been predicting.
1753. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:
FANTASY!!!

Not only fantasy in terms of 16 days out but why does that map show a 1006 mb low as if it's some kind of bottomless pit? The pressure at my house earlier today 1007.8 mb. A 1006 low is not something to start getting the storm shutters out over.
1754. GatorWX
Quoting 1743. sar2401:

Looks like our expert has gone to bed so I'll give it a shot, We had two very unusual systems. The first was the well established high over the Western US that has caused all the record heat we've been reading about. The second was an extension of the Bermuda high all the way into the northeast US. There has to be an area of lower pressure between two highs. Nature abhors a vacuum, so the high pressure tries to fill the low. Usually you don't have two such strong highs next to each other and, if you do, there's a deep low that separates them. In this case, the low is a long, skinny trough that's only even average deep down by the Gulf. Each high flowed together at the north, weak end of the trough, so we end up with a bridge high that covers almost the whole country. As I wrote earlier, I've never seen anything like this in 50 years of weather observing, so you're getting a chance to see a fairly rare event.


I think I see the exact same thing, but I'm only 28 and have only seriously been studying since '04.
Quoting 1753. sar2401:

Not only fantasy in terms of 16 days out but why does that map show a 1006 mb low as if it's some kind of bottomless pit? The pressure at my house earlier today 1007.8 mb. A 1006 low is not something to start getting the storm shutters out over.

Big thing... Goofus has poor resolution.
1756. sar2401
Quoting redwagon:
I just had an Orange Juice poll pimpin my ridge. Is this new? Do I have to out-mouse an advertisement to get wx info? Really?

Just pay the money and join and you won't have to look at ads. There are other ways not to see ads but it's rather bad form for me to talk about it on an open blog. Google is your friend.
Quoting 1749. sar2401:

I don't have a clue what you're talking about. If a strong low pressure system pushed off the East Coast and weakens the Bermuda high, it changes almost everything about where any storms that form might go. A weaker high means it would be more likely for storms to travel up the east coast or even recurve out to sea instead of getting into the Gulf or going to Mexico or Central America.

If you don't understand the significance of a post by someone with a lot more knowledge than you do, ask him to explain it, but don't post inane comments like that. You'll get added to a lot of ignore lists if you keep it up.
good news we have no tropical storm when that strong low pressure system pushed off the East Coast!!
1758. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


I think I see the exact same thing, but I'm only 28 and have only seriously been studying since '04.

There you go then. With our combined 58 years of weather watching, there's a good chance we're both right. :-)
1760. sar2401
Quoting hurricanes2018:
good news we have no tropical storm when that strong low pressure system pushed off the East Coast!!

No, you still don't get it. The low pushing off the East Coast has nothing to do with whether or not a tropical storm will form. It has to do with how the smaller high will influence the track of storms that do form. Do some studying online and learn some things about tropical storms and why they form and why they go where they do. You can then contribute something positive here.
I honestly don't know why I don't put people that are making things up on ignore list, but I do put trolls on ignore list... guess I'm too nice of person.
Quoting 1760. sar2401:

No, you still don't get it. The low pushing off the East Coast has nothing to do with whether or not a tropical storm will form. It has to do with how the smaller high will influence the track of storms that do form. Do some studying online and learn some things about tropical storms and why they form and why they go where they do. You can then contribute something positive here.



I see what you are talking about now!!
1763. sar2401
Quoting hurricanes2018:
big tropical wave if you see on here!!

There are no tropical waves shown on that satellite view. Both the Atlantic and the Caribbean are unusually void of convection for the middle of July. It's not necessary to post the same satellite view twice within minutes either.

Quoting 1753. sar2401:

Not only fantasy in terms of 16 days out but why does that map show a 1006 mb low as if it's some kind of bottomless pit? The pressure at my house earlier today 1007.8 mb. A 1006 low is not something to start getting the storm shutters out over.


Yes, seems like if the GFS is kidding us..
Quoting 1756. sar2401:

Just pay the money and join and you won't have to look at ads.


Then this site which I love for 8 years needs to ditch the 'underground' pretension. Orange Juice ads which chase my mouse around is not 'underground'.

Not that I won't pony up - I ain't that broke - and with TWC buying us out, why do we need money all of a sudden?

I have ~1600 comments over 6 years.. I am not an abuser of bandwidth.
1766. JLPR2
Quoting 1745. stormchaser19:
FANTASY!!!


Well at least now we have something to watch, speculate and hope for.
Quoting 1761. Bluestorm5:
I honestly don't know why I don't put people that are making things up on ignore list, but I do put trolls on ignore list... guess I'm too nice of person.

You get a sticker for being a good person :p

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART
NASA Hubble Finds a True Blue Planet Artist's View of Extrasolar Planet HD 189733b

This artist's concept shows exoplanet HD 189733b orbiting its yellow-orange star, HD 189733. NASA's Hubble Space Telescope measured the actual visible-light color of the planet, which is deep blue. Image Credit: NASA, ESA, and G. Bacon (STScI)
Astronomers making visible-light observations with NASA's Hubble Space Telescope have deduced the actual color of a planet orbiting another star 63 light-years away.

The planet is HD 189733b, one of the closest exoplanets that can be seen crossing the face of its star.

Hubble's Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph measured changes in the color of light from the planet before, during and after a pass behind its star. There was a small drop in light and a slight change in the color of the light. "We saw the light becoming less bright in the blue but not in the green or red. Light was missing in the blue but not in the red when it was hidden," said research team member Frederic Pont of the University of Exeter in South West England. "This means that the object that disappeared was blue
Earlier observations have reported evidence for scattering of blue light on the planet. The latest Hubble observation confirms the evidence.

If seen directly, this planet would look like a deep blue dot, reminiscent of Earth's color as seen from space. That is where the comparison ends.

On this turbulent alien world, the daytime temperature is nearly 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and it possibly rains glass -- sideways -- in howling, 4,500-mph winds. The cobalt blue color comes not from the reflection of a tropical ocean as it does on Earth, but rather a hazy, blow-torched atmosphere containing high clouds laced with silicate particles. Silicates condensing in the heat could form very small drops of glass that scatter blue light more than red light.

Hubble and other observatories have made intensive studies of HD 189733b and found its atmosphere to be changeable and exotic.

HD 189733b is among a bizarre class of planets called hot Jupiters, which orbit precariously close to their parent stars. The observations yield new insights into the chemical composition and cloud structure of the entire class.

Clouds often play key roles in planetary atmospheres. Detecting the presence and importance of clouds in hot Jupiters is crucial to astronomers' understanding of the physics and climatology of other planets.

(MORE: Space Station Commander Tweets Out of This World Photos)

HD 189733b was discovered in 2005. It is only 2.9 million miles from its parent star, so close that it is gravitationally locked. One side always faces the star and the other side is always dark.

In 2007, NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope measured the infrared light, or heat, from the planet, leading to one of the first temperature maps for an exoplanet. The map shows day side and night side temperatures on HD 189733b differ by about 500 degrees Fahrenheit. This should cause fierce winds to roar from the day side to the night side.
Quoting 1759. hurricanes2018:
thats a huge wave over africa
1771. sar2401
Quoting redwagon:


Then this site which I love for 8 years needs to ditch the 'underground' pretension. Orange Juice ads which chase my mouse around is not 'underground'.

Not that I won't pony up - I ain't that broke - and with TWC buying us out, why do we need money all of a sudden?

I have ~1600 comments over 6 years.. I am not an abuser of bandwidth.

Yes, I know. If you notice my join date and post count, I've been around for a while also. It's really much longer than my join date. I first started using WU when you connected with a 28.8 modem and got text from an FTP Gopher site. That was back in the days when the Doc and a few friends were running a real alternative site that bought you things you couldn't get from what was then the almost complete lack of presence on the web of the NWS...and what they did have was pitifully bad. Heck, I used to keep up with real time weather using my shortwave radio, listening to VOLMET reports of current airport weather conditions, when there was no such thing as any kind of internet.

However, times change and things move on. The Doc moved out of that little apartment in Ann Arbor, got married, had kids, and transformed himself first into a "real" meteorologist offering weather information on the web to a big business that, I'm sure, paid him very well for all the years he spent with servers all over the apartment and doing all this for free. I don't begrudge him the chance to take the deal from TWC, and he's now a well known and respected name in weather.

At some point, the Weather Underground name will disappear and this will simply be part of The Weather Channel. We will remember "the good old days" with fondness, but one of the ways you can tell you've become a geezer is when you spend too much time remembering and bemoaning the loss of the good old days. :-)
1772. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
thats a huge wave over africa

That's a huge low pressure system, I think you mean. I haven't seen any sign it has moved offshore and become a wave.
1773. Gearsts
Hyper Earth: the New World in 4k UHD.Link
Quoting 1772. sar2401:

That's a huge low pressure system, I think you mean. I haven't seen any sign it has moved offshore and become a wave.
whatever it is that thing is huge but sometimes they lose intensity when hitting the water
1775. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I honestly don't know why I don't put people that are making things up on ignore list, but I do put trolls on ignore list... guess I'm too nice of person.

{Sigh}...yes, I know. I always hope there's a young person out there who's trying to learn but just doesn't have very good social skills yet. I'm willing to try to help but, if it continues to be apparent that someone is posting just because their fingers are bored, on the ignore list he goes.

I was just thinking today what a great tool the ignore feature is. Without it, I would be worked up half the time at what some peple continually post...and I'm not talking about teenagers, I'm talking about adults that should know better. Assuming any of them ever went to a social gathering and talked like they do here, I can't understand how they would escape getting punched out. It's much more peaceful for me when I no longer know they exist. :-)
think it mite hold sar?
1777. JRRP

mmmmm.... we will see
1778. Gearsts
Possible strong wave or TD approaching the islands


And the next system behind
Quoting 1775. sar2401:

{Sigh}...yes, I know. I always hope there's a young person out there who's trying to learn but just doesn't have very good social skills yet. I'm willing to try to help but, if it continues to be apparent that someone is posting just because their fingers are bored, on the ignore list he goes.

I was just thinking today what a great tool the ignore feature is. Without it, I would be worked up half the time at what some peple continually post...and I'm not talking about teenagers, I'm talking about adults that should know better. Assuming any of them ever went to a social gathering and talked like they do here, I can't understand how they would escape getting punched out. It's much more peaceful for me when I no longer know they exist. :-)
Yeah, I like giving people chances to show what they got, but if they don't much improvement, I'll just ignore them. It's a great feature for trolls, but I get worried I ignores a person that will eventually improves. I was like most of them when I first joined in 2011, but I matured a lot since along with more knowledge. I hopes others that join will do the same.
1780. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:

i think that this is the wave over Africa
1781. Gearsts
Quoting 1780. JRRP:

i think that this is the wave over Africa
Yes it is
1782. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
whatever it is that thing is huge but sometimes they lose intensity when hitting the water

Yes, it's a big low pressure system, sort of a tropical wave still on land. They get really big because they are near the equator and the MDR pumps a lot of hot, humid air into them. When they get offshore, they will almost always get smaller because the conditions are no longer ideal unless the SST's are really warm, the instability is high, and wind shear is low. This year, all three of these conditions haven't been good for these Cape Verde type storms to develop.
1783. Dakster
Quoting 1779. Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I like giving people chances to show what they got, but if they don't much improvement, I'll just ignore them. It's a great feature for trolls, but I get worried I ignores a person that will eventually improves. I was like most of them when I first joined in 2011, but I matured a lot since along with more knowledge. I hopes others that join will do the same.


The - and the ! also work well.

Right now, not alot going in the tropics. Everything seems to be conjecture on what could happen in the distant (for tropical predictions) future.

I am wondering if that wave getting ready to leave Africa will hold itself together once it goes over water.
1784. Gearsts
Quoting 1782. sar2401:

Yes, it's a big low pressure system, sort of a tropical wave still on land. They get really big because they are near the equator and the MDR pumps a lot of hot, humid air into them. When they get offshore, they will almost always get smaller because the conditions are no longer ideal unless the SST's are really warm, the instability is high, and wind shear is low. This year, all three of these conditions haven't been good for these Cape Verde type storms to develop.
For the time of the year the conditions have been better than average.
1785. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I like giving people chances to show what they got, but if they don't much improvement, I'll just ignore them. It's a great feature for trolls, but I get worried I ignores a person that will eventually improves. I was like most of them when I first joined in 2011, but I matured a lot since along with more knowledge. I hopes others that join will do the same.

And you've done well. I remember you when you first joined, and you are a much different person now. I always hope some of the other newer young people will follow your path, so it's that hope that spurs me to be as kind as I can while still letting them know what's acceptable behavior here. Unfortunately, some don't seem to be able to develop your level of maturity, so on the list they go. :-(
1786. sar2401
Quoting Gearsts:
For the time of the year the conditions have been better than average.

They are getting better. The SAL is starting to decline, the SST's are starting rise, and the wind shear is starting fall. I wouldn't say the condition have been better than average, however. If they were, we would have already had at least one decent CV storm this year, usually two.
1787. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


The - and the ! also work well.

Right now, not alot going in the tropics. Everything seems to be conjecture on what could happen in the distant (for tropical predictions) future.

I am wondering if that wave getting ready to leave Africa will hold itself together once it goes over water.

You and everyone else. :-) As I was writing to Gearsts, conditions are starting to improve, and this one is big enough it may be able to shrug off any less than ideal conditions. The low forecast to push off the East Coast and weaken the A-B high may become an important player if this low does become a successful TC. I'm still of the feeling our first hurricane will come in the Western Caribbean or Gulf, but eventually, CV storms should begin to dominate again.
Quoting 1785. sar2401:

And you've done well. I remember you when you first joined, and you are a much different person now. I always hope some of the other newer young people will follow your path, so it's that hope that spurs me to be as kind as I can while still letting them know what's acceptable behavior here. Unfortunately, some don't seem to be able to develop your level of maturity, so on the list they go. :-(
One thing I really need to improve on is my grammar, though. It's little hard because of my deafness, however. It get frustrating sometimes because I'm trying to show that I'm mature, but grammar is sign of immaturity in most people I see on here or in real life.
1789. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
think it mite hold sar?

Has the best chance I've seen of any of the African lows that have appeared this year. We shall see.
1790. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
One thing I really need to improve on is my grammar, though. It's little hard because of my deafness, however. It get frustrating sometimes because I'm trying to show that I'm mature, but grammar is sign of immaturity in most people I see on here or in real life.

Are you comletely deaf? If so, that's quite a handicap to overcome. I'm deaf in one ear due to a rare inner ear disorder called Meniere's. Went from perfect hearing to 95% hearing loss in my left ear in one day. Hearing aids don't works since the nerves were destroyed. I'm very lucky to (so far) have not been one of the 30%with this disease who go bilateral and become completely deaf. I've had the disease since 2000, so my chances are pretty good I'll still have one good ear. How did you become deaf?
1791. vis0
Remember the next period of ~2 weeks for anomalies to occur in weather
begins ~July 23.5 till August 7.5 2013 ( /-1.5 days). (Calendar below)

The last was May 24.5 till June 7.5 2013. ( /-1.5 days)

What is this period?

i state there is an outside earth influence as to its super long trends.
i state that Rossby waves trends can be predicted
up to 7 yrs in advance.

Now as these outside earth influences change,
there is a 2 week window where the last trend is ending and the next
trend hasn't taken a foot hold, and during that period anomalies can take hold.

So lets see what starts ~July 23rd 2013 till ~August 7th 2013, even if its quiet or busy
one has to wait after ~August 7th 2013 to see the next ~2 months trend.

BTW that's why (i state) this year you saw Tropical Storm Andrea then
everyone (many) at wxu kept looking for another TF in that area.
Its not that one couldn't form in the GoMx, but when i saw
Tropical Storm Andrea form at the end of this 2 week period
it meant to me that Andrea was more of an anomaly, as storms at the start of these 2 weeks means an anomaly BUT with influence of the last trend, therefore if that or a similar trend continuous then we can have more TF in that part anomaly mostly trend area.
INFO for those that read of the weather influencing device:

This rule becomes more solid if the ml-d is left as is thus settings are not touched.


Cyan coloured is Descending Galacsic season,

Red is the Ascending Galacsic season
(Galacsic, NOT GALACTIC)



The small notches/nodes or dashed lines show starting point for the 2 week change-over delay, partially a moon phase thang). Next is July 23.5 see the dashed line under July 23rd 2013. Remember this is partially based on Stars positions as to real passover so it changes year to year and no clock not even the new reflective atomic clock is as precise as the stars.


Quoting 1789. sar2401:

Has the best chance I've seen of any of the African lows that have appeared this year. We shall see.
was this the wave they were saying possible Dorian too? I saw the GFS had it at one point then dropped it
Quoting 1790. sar2401:

Are you comletely deaf? If so, that's quite a handicap to overcome. I'm deaf in one ear due to a rare inner ear disorder called Meniere's. Went from perfect hearing to 95% hearing loss in my left ear in one day. Hearing aids don't works since the nerves were destroyed. I'm very lucky to (so far) have not been one of the 30%with this disease who go bilateral and become completely deaf. I've had the disease since 2000, so my chances are pretty good I'll still have one good ear. How did you become deaf?
I'm completely deaf since birth for no known reason. My nerves connecting cochlea to brain never fully developed. When I was 2 years old, I had surgery to get cochlear implant (that technology is only developed in 80s so it was a huge risk to get it for me back than). I had to move to St. Louis from Carolinas when I was 6 because I need deaf school in order to hear/understand/speak/write English. I think I didn't say my first sentence until I was 8 or 9 and didn't have talking conversations until I was 11 or 12. I've overcome a lot to get where I am and I'm blessed with good parents and teachers that never gave up on me.
Quoting 1771. sar2401:

Yes, I know. If you notice my join date and post count, I've been around for a while also. It's really much longer than my join date. I first started using WU when you connected with a 28.8 modem and got text from an FTP Gopher site. That was back in the days when the Doc and a few friends were running a real alternative site that bought you things you couldn't get from what was then the almost complete lack of presence on the web of the NWS...and what they did have was pitifully bad. Heck, I used to keep up with real time weather using my shortwave radio, listening to VOLMET reports of current airport weather conditions, when there was no such thing as any kind of internet.

However, times change and things move on. The Doc moved out of that little apartment in Ann Arbor, got married, had kids, and transformed himself first into a "real" meteorologist offering weather information on the web to a big business that, I'm sure, paid him very well for all the years he spent with servers all over the apartment and doing all this for free. I don't begrudge him the chance to take the deal from TWC, and he's now a well known and respected name in weather.

At some point, the Weather Underground name will disappear and this will simply be part of The Weather Channel. We will remember "the good old days" with fondness, but one of the ways you can tell you've become a geezer is when you spend too much time remembering and bemoaning the loss of the good old days. :-)


Then I propose somebody launch another sister site, weatheracademy.or.whatever for keeping the academic portion of this grassroots out of the range of the orange juice DRONES.
1795. JRRP
240 GFS


240 Euro

Way to overcome a high hurdle Bluestorm5! Impressive to say the least.
While this temporary lull is ongoing looks like Fri/Sat/Sun may be a severe weather outbreak for Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley and then eastward. So weird watching these two highs move weather from East to West. Like Sar said, this is a very rare event to watch. Pretty cool severe drought areas getting much needed rain.
For anytime of the season this is a huge low pressure system coming off of Africa. Strong enough to overcome less than ideal conditions? Gotta have at least a 50/50 fighters chance.
1799. Dakster
Bluetsorm5 - You are doing really well. I would have never known that you had to overcome so much.

It is amazing what people take for granted.
1800. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm completely deaf since birth for no known reason. My nerves connecting cochlea to brain never fully developed. When I was 2 years old, I had surgery to get cochlear implant (that technology is only developed in 80s so it was a huge risk to get it for me back than). I had to move to St. Louis from Carolinas when I was 6 because I need deaf school in order to hear/understand/speak/write English. I think I didn't say my first sentence until I was 8 or 9 and didn't have talking conversations until I was 11 or 12. I've overcome a lot to get where I am and I'm blessed with good parents and teachers that never gave up on me.

That is both a tragic and terrific story on so many levels. My hearing loss is trivial in comparision to being born deaf. They wanted to do a cochlear implant on me, and I didn't think it was worth the risk to restore hearing in one ear. Was it successful at all for you? I assume you read lips? I have taken classes for that in case I should lose hearing in both ears. I'm not all that good at it, but I can understand it enough so when people are cussing me out across the room and they think I can't "hear" them - I can. :-) Are you able to hear sounds in certain frequency ranges, say, like thunder, or only able to feel vibration. I'm hoping you don't have tinnitus. I know some people who have been deaf from birth who do, and it drives them nut. I only have it my bad ear, and it's annoying, but nothing like being otherwise deaf and having it as well.

I'm really proud of you. I know a tiny bit of what you've gone through, and it's obviously made you a better person. Sounds like you have great parents as well. Your grammar is better than about 90% of the people here, including some of our "intellectual" types, so don't ever apologize for that.
Quoting 1792. bigwes6844:
was this the wave they were saying possible Dorian too? I saw the GFS had it at one point then dropped it


I think that wave might be the one approaching the Lesser Antilles, although I'm not completely sure:

Quoting 1795. JRRP:
240 GFS


240 Euro



Too far north. It's going to recurve.
Aurora Borealis Forecast for Monday, July 15, 2013
4:00 AM EDT/1:00 AM PDT


REAL TIME AURORA BOREALIS PREDICTION:

Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora):

The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program Estimates that . . .
in 7 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 3.67 -- Active.
in 27 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 4 -- Active.
in 40 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 4.33 -- Active.
in 53 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.33 -- at 'STORM' LEVEL! (It's On!!)

Guidance map to see if you'd be able to see the lights at predicted kp measurement
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST July 15 2013
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.0N 127.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
1805. VR46L
Morning folks!

The wave in west Africa looks like hitting the water intact and look what is coming up behind it...

1806. Dakster
Tis the season VR...
1807. VR46L
Quoting 1806. Dakster:
Tis the season VR...


The GFS is showing a bit of support for the second of the waves in the 00Z run dies in the Graveyard but Then it shows another to be projected as a possible east coast rider

1808. VR46L
Looks like Texas is in for significant rains the next couple of days



Wonder will it effect this

1809. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
522 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-152330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
522 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS TODAY AS THEY MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REMEMBER IF THUNDER IS HEARD OR LIGHTING IS OBSERVED MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY
RAIN TODAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT
THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK. THE MYAKKA RIVER WILL CONTINUE
RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY COULD CAUSE A FURTHER RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE
PRONOUNCED FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER THROUGH THE WEEK. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO ANY RAPID RISES IN
WATERS LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED.
1810. LargoFl
Good Morning folks!..Blogs Coffee is perked..enjoy!..have a safe one..
upper level chop saw in the gulf for about a month. should lift out soon?
Quoting 1779. Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I like giving people chances to show what they got, but if they don't much improvement, I'll just ignore them. It's a great feature for trolls, but I get worried I ignores a person that will eventually improves. I was like most of them when I first joined in 2011, but I matured a lot since along with more knowledge. I hopes others that join will do the same.
I--and I know some others, as well--will clear out our ignore lists every winter for the very reason you stated: to see whether and which of our known trolls have grown up. Thankfully, it frequently turns out that last year's troll has become one of this year's valuable members. Of course, there are those few who will never stay off the list for long, their perpetual immaturity ensuring that they will be tossed back on within just a day or two of being paroled. But that just means The Great Annual Ignore List Purge works... ;-)
thanks 2018. first test of the yr. .
Gonna be a slow boring season again
Quoting 1802. KoritheMan:


Too far north. It's going to recurve.
most of any storms will recurve this year agin
Good morning. Here's the end of the 6z GFS run with the CV system again:

Quoting 1816. thunderstromsmike:
Gonna be a slow boring season again


we are yet to start
when it do
you will beg
for it to end
2 AM NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO
14N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N49W 13N48W
9N46W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON TUESDAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 11N26W. THE
ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N31W AND IT CONTINUES TO 10N36W AND
11N42W 9N48W 7N53W 7N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 14N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

Full Discussion here
1823. drs2008
Quoting 1813. Neapolitan:
I--and I know some others, as well--will clear out our ignore lists every winter for the very reason you stated: to see whether and which of our known trolls have grown up. Thankfully, it frequently turns out that last year's troll has become one of this year's valuable members. Of course, there are those few who will never stay off the list for long, their perpetual immaturity ensuring that they will be tossed back on within just a day or two of being paroled. But that just means The Great Annual Ignore List Purge works... ;-)
Social natural selection. Cruel,but fair.
Morning All.

Quoting 1824. ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

long way till sept 10th
1827. GatorWX
Pretty interesting.

Actually, aren't we a couple weeks ahead of schedule climatologically?
Quoting 1826. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
long way till sept 10th


Yes indeed. The bulk of activity falls between Aug 10th and November 10th and we are already above climo for the year.
Is interesting to see the GFS setting up a weaker ridge into the end of the month. Located and centered to the northeast in the Atlantic, making its west side periphery relatively weak and withdrawn into the atlantic.
If that is the "set up" for ridging during the meat of the season, it looks likek there would be a lot of recurves, rather than CONUS hits of CV systems.Lately the ridge's west side has extended either over Florida, or just off the east coast which would favor a pattern of either FL or GOM bound storms.
Of course things can and do change but if that is the setup the GFS is presenting, that appears to be good news for the US. Will need to continue to watch how the pattern evolves.
city issued extreme heat alert

WOCN51 CWTO 150840
Humidex advisory
Updated by Environment Canada


Humidex advisory for:
Gatineau
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay.

High humidex values expected today trough Friday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Humidex values will reach 40 to 42 today with the exception of areas
right along the shores of the Great Lakes where values will still
reach 37 to 39. Peak humidex values in the low forties are expected
for the next several days due to the arrival of a more humid air mass
combined with temperatures in the low thirties. A change in the
weather pattern is expected Friday and humidex values will drop below
the criteria level of 40.

This is an advisory that high humidex values are expected in these
regions. Monitor weather conditions and listen for updated
statements.

End
1833. GatorWX
Can I ask a question? Is this very persistent trof part of the seasonal transition? It has been the most odd summer I can remember here in sw FL. We have not had a normal afternoon storm in weeks, but we've had well over 14" of rain. If this pattern persists into August and September, I'm nervous. I know I'm rather amateur, but I've been watching and listening all my life and I don't honestly remember seeing anything like what we've had in place since late spring. I suppose wind shear would be suppressed and the Jetstream should pull a bit further north, but will the persistent trof and blocking ridge over the northeast stay in place. This just looks too similar to 2004 and the first half of 2005. I am really curious if shear will really abate or if we have these very small pockets, similar to what we see in the gulf now. I very much feel we'll see the same ecarib struggle looking at it out there now, but it's the wcarib and gom that, to me, are looking ominous. Honestly it seems anywhere in the US south of NE along the GOM and ATL seems to be at risk right now with the SE at greatest risk. So, anyone want to elaborate on my amateur observations?

* a question or two lol
Quoting 1831. Tropicsweatherpr:
Is interesting to see the GFS setting up a weaker ridge into the end of the month. Located and centered to the northeast in the Atlantic, making its west side periphery relatively weak and withdrawn into the atlantic.
If that is the "set up" for ridging during the meat of the season, it looks likek there would be a lot of recurves, rather than CONUS hits of CV systems.Lately the ridge's west side has extended either over Florida, or just off the east coast which would favor a pattern of either FL or GOM bound storms.
Of course things can and do change but if that is the setup the GFS is presenting, that appears to be good news for the US. Will need to continue to watch how the pattern evolves.

I've noticed this also, and the CFS seems to be hinting at this as well. It would, as you said, favor recurves or perhaps East Coast hits.
1835. GatorWX
Quoting 1831. Tropicsweatherpr:
Is interesting to see the GFS setting up a weaker ridge into the end of the month. Located and centered to the northeast in the Atlantic, making its west side periphery relatively weak and withdrawn into the atlantic.
If that is the "set up" for ridging during the meat of the season, it looks likek there would be a lot of recurves, rather than CONUS hits of CV systems.Lately the ridge's west side has extended either over Florida, or just off the east coast which would favor a pattern of either FL or GOM bound storms.
Of course things can and do change but if that is the setup the GFS is presenting, that appears to be good news for the US. Will need to continue to watch how the pattern evolves.


We need to ditch this endless trough. Until I see a prominent front dip down off the east coast, I wonder. I haven't seen nary a change yet. We shall wait and hope.
Quoting 1831. Tropicsweatherpr:
Is interesting to see the GFS setting up a weaker ridge into the end of the month. Located and centered to the northeast in the Atlantic, making its west side periphery relatively weak and withdrawn into the atlantic.
If that is the "set up" for ridging during the meat of the season, it looks likek there would be a lot of recurves, rather than CONUS hits of CV systems.Lately the ridge's west side has extended either over Florida, or just off the east coast which would favor a pattern of either FL or GOM bound storms.
Of course things can and do change but if that is the setup the GFS is presenting, that appears to be good news for the US. Will need to continue to watch how the pattern evolves.

That's nothing new. The Azores high has been shifted far, far northeast for a while now, it's just very potent. It still has a large influence across the Atlantic at the end of the GFS run, and in fact, it's reinforced by an area of high pressure near Newfoundland, something picked up by models for the ASO period months ago. Doesn't favor recurvatures much at all.
1837. GatorWX
I can probably simplify that question/statement very much by just asking, do you feel the Jetstream will straighten out and lose the roller coaster look?
1838. GatorWX
Quoting 1836. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's nothing new. The Azores high has been shifted far, far northeast for a while now, it's just very potent. It still has a large influence across the Atlantic at the end of the GFS run, and in fact, it's reinforced by an area of high pressure near Newfoundland, something picked up by models for the ASO period months ago. Doesn't favor recurvatures much at all.


I think if it's at all similar to the way it is now, I can imagine a pattern similar to when Sandy struck. That's more or less exactly what we have in place now, no? It's been in place and has seemingly reinforced itself in the last week or two. We need a very drastic pattern change to fix this and this is usually the time we would start to see it. I really don't know if the models can truly comprehend the upper air dynamics right now anyway, so I'm waiting to actually see changes.
1839. Grothar
Nice ULL.



Pretty nominal weekly NHC SST Anomalies (in MDR)






1841. GatorWX
Quoting 1839. Grothar:
Nice ULL.





It needs to go north and change things!
1842. Grothar
1843. Grothar
Your are right guys. Interesting pattern.



1844. Grothar
A lot of vorticity in Texas and Oklahoma. Any heavy activity predicted for that area today?

i remember some yrs we did not even have any candidates for development. not this yr. tons of moisture black and white water vapor it looks like snow.
From the Miami NWS Disco

HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN/TSTORMS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, THOUGH
STILL RATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK

THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RETURN SOUTH FLORIDA TO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW
REGIME. WHILE LESS STORMINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WE ARE NOT GOING INTO A DRY REGIME EITHER BY ANY STRETCH.
STILL, ANY BREAK IN THE REPEATED TORRENTIAL RAINS OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS NEEDED. AN NWS EMPLOYEE RECORDED 13.7 INCHES OF RAIN TUE-
SAT IN COOPER CITY (SUNDAY AMOUNT NOT REPORTED YET) WITH 8.74
INCHES SATURDAY ALONE!

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, NOW LIES JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. WINDS AHEAD OF IT HAVE BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY WITH
WINDS TURNING EAST AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY
THIS EVENING WITH A STEADY EAST WIND EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, INCREASING
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR-GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR
SHOWS EARLY DEVELOPMENT INLAND SO STARTED TSTORMS THERE BY NOON.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FL AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE EXCEPT A BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME FILTERED SUN
THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY, THE EAST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED. SO AGAIN THE BEST
CHANCE OF TSTORMS WILL BE INTERIOR-GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING NW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IN
CASES SUCH AS THIS, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE...AND THEY COULD AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS.
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH PRETTY MUCH EQUAL CHANCES OF RAIN EVERYWHERE.
GFS MOS DID GO LIKELY FOR WED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WAS AN
INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, SO HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY MID WEEK AS WELL.

LATE IN THE WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN...BUT THIS
LOOKS TO BE SLOW, SO FRIDAY COULD BE RATHER WET WITH PROBABLY
IMPROVING WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
Good Morning Folks. Looks like lurk mode as things are quiet in the Atlantic pending Dr. Masters next blog on whatever topic he chooses to write on during this lull period.

In terms of the rain in Florida, it has been a very different pattern this year than in recent years here in North Florida/Big Bend. It have been raining frequently now for several months starting in the Spring and transitioning now to the Summer. While your typical afternoon pop-up showers have still been there, the bulk of the rain has been coming from lows and trofs in the Gulf and around other parts of Florida.

Yesterday afternoon was a good example; no t-storms but just a nice heavy band of rain for 10 minutes then nothing; same in thing in South Georgia where I spent most of Saturday afternoon/evening. Intermittent bands of showers all afternoon but not your typical PM pop-ups; steady tropical type down pours.

Looks like parts of Texas getting some needed rain today from a low in the mid-west.........Lots of lows this year so far both on land and off of Conus.


Quoting 1827. GatorWX:
Pretty interesting.


Just curious, has anyone seen a system that large retrograde so far and over such a long time period before? I'm almost sure it must have happened, but I don't have any memory of such an event.

But then, I don't remember the middle of last week, so any help would be appreciated.
1850. Grothar
It looks like central Texas is in for some heavy rain. That system looks like it is moving east to west. That is very strange.

Hey Y'all,
Busy day today, plus my neck is killing me for some reason - my wife has forbid me from the pc, thinking it's at least part of the problem, so, my apologies, but gonna have to do another quick drive-by. Of course, I'll always make time to say, Good Morning!

6:28 am (10:28 GMT)

Dexter silhouetted as the sun starts to rise over the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.

Picked up 0.45" of rain, nearly all of it coming at around 5 am this morning. To see all my entries for the year you can click HERE, or go to Rainlog.org and pan the map over to Lantana.

Have a great day everyone!
1852. RTLSNK
Good morning all. 86 with 94% humidity here in NOLA, Whewwww
1854. GatorWX
Quoting 1849. Birthmark:

Just curious, has anyone seen a system that large retrograde so far and over such a long time period before? I'm almost sure it must have happened, but I don't have any memory of such an event.

But then, I don't remember the middle of last week, so any help would be appreciated.


No, nothing like that in mid July

*that I remember, I'm only 28 though. I've lived in Englewood FL (Sarasota/Charlotte Counties) my whole life and I don't ever remember experiencing the conditions we've had here for the past three - four weeks, at least not so persistent and for such a duration of time, so it seems to my young mind that something is a bit different unless things drastically change. I'm really worried of the same upper level patterns continuing into the heart of season with an overall reduction of shear. WCAR and GOM I would think would be most at risk if storms stay week and follow the trades into that region.
Quoting 1854. GatorWX:


No, nothing like that in mid July

Thank you, GatorWX.
1856. GatorWX
Quoting 1855. Birthmark:

Thank you, GatorWX.


modified that for you
Quoting 1840. nrtiwlnvragn:
Pretty nominal weekly NHC SST Anomalies (in MDR)








The tripole looks fairly established.
Quoting 1850. Grothar:
It looks like central Texas is in for some heavy rain. That system looks like it is moving east to west. That is very strange.

strange for our next trick lets make it weird
1859. pcola57

1860. Grothar
Quoting 1851. mikatnight:
Hey Y'all,
Busy day today, plus my neck is killing me for some reason - my wife has forbid me from the pc, thinking it's at least part of the problem, so, my apologies, but gonna have to do another quick drive-by. Of course, I'll always make time to say, Good Morning!

6:28 am (10:28 GMT)

Dexter silhouetted as the sun starts to rise over the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.

Picked up 0.45" of rain, nearly all of it coming at around 5 am this morning. To see all my entries for the year you can click HERE, or go to Rainlog.org and pan the map over to Lantana.

Have a great day everyone!


Doesn't she realize the important work we do here? When I had a stiff neck, Mrs. Grothar believed exercise is the best thing. So she used to make me paint the ceiling or cut the hedges.
Quoting 1859. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
77 degrees here with 90%rh and dew at 74..
Mostly cloudy with light rain..
Very tropical like..
Winds 12mph from the East..
60% chance of rain..
.28" rain accumulation since midnight..

At least it's not gone to 100 degrees yet this year..

Beach may clear up and become delightful as the day wears on..



About the same in Fort Walton Beach but got .75" of rain in about 10 minutes this morning!
lot of good things going on weather wise
1863. GatorWX
Good news image of the day for at least some floridians. Good grief eh?
1864. LargoFl
Finally a sunny morning here on the gulf coast..............
1865. LargoFl
Gulf Coast..its NOT over just yet....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST
WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS TODAY AS THEY MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. REMEMBER IF THUNDER IS HEARD OR LIGHTING IS OBSERVED MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAY.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY
RAIN TODAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
1866. hydrus
Quoting 1854. GatorWX:


No, nothing like that in mid July

*that I remember, I'm only 28 though. I've lived in Englewood FL (Sarasota/Charlotte Counties) my whole life and I don't ever remember experiencing the conditions we've had here for the past three - four weeks, at least not so persistent and for such a duration of time, so it seems to my young mind that something is a bit different unless things drastically change. I'm really worried of the same upper level patterns continuing into the heart of season with an overall reduction of shear. WCAR and GOM I would think would be most at risk if storms stay week and follow the trades into that region.
Good morning 23..What is going on weatherwise that is so unusual.?
The ECMWF July ENSO forecast has changed to Neutral for ASO after being at El Nino for a long time.

I'll go for the easy one...Reads like we have a lot of pain-in-the-necks in here this morning. :)
1869. pcola57
Quoting 1861. 69Viking:


About the same in Fort Walton Beach but got .75" of rain in about 10 minutes this morning!


Mornin' neighbor..
Glad to see you here this am..
They had an airshow this weekend here and weather became a factor..
So they started a little early and stopped early as well..
It was quite a show..
I watched from the comfort of my chair at home..
Best seats anywhere..Lol..
I'm not a beach person but I am a airshow freak..
No Blue Angels of course due to sequestration..
They have flown their last show until next year if we can get a budget through Congress..
Anyway good to see ya this am.. :)
1870. hydrus
Quoting 1824. ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

Thank you for posting " The Chart "..:)
seems we have some water at the pole this am

1872. pcola57
Good Morning/Evening

You know the lightning was close when it sets off car alarms all around you. Glad I made it to see Sunday.
1874. pcola57


The July ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO has normal pressures in most of the North Atlantic except in the Western Atlantic and part of GOM.

1876. Grothar
Quoting 1868. GeoffreyWPB:
I'll go for the easy one...Reads like we have a lot of pain-in-the-necks in here this morning. :)


No, I don't feel liked getting banned this morning. I'll let that one go. :)
Good morning everyone,

Fantastic weather here in OK - guess its all a matter of perspective.

Below normal temps, and a month of rain in the past day - could not ask for anything better! hopefully this will push off further to the west where it is most needed.

See that Texas is getting in on the action too. Happy to say that it is sticking around for a couple of days. Although perhaps a little late for farmers - this certainly can only help with the extremely dry conditions.

Hope all is going good with you. Have a fantastic day!
Picked up 0.13" Saturday, then some light stuff this morning. It was something in the gauge, but if that's all it's gonna do, it mind as not even rain.
Quoting 1844. Grothar:
A lot of vorticity in Texas and Oklahoma. Any heavy activity predicted for that area today?



There is no mesoscale discussion just thunderstorms.
Link

Link
Quoting 1878. RitaEvac:
Picked up 0.13" Saturday, then some light stuff this morning. It was something in the gauge, but if that's all it's gonna do, it mind as not even rain.


Isn't that better than a complete deluge though? Annoying, yes, but gives the ground a better chance to absorb the moisture.
Quoting 1878. RitaEvac:
Picked up 0.13" Saturday, then some light stuff this morning. It was something in the gauge, but if that's all it's gonna do, it mind as not even rain.
.


Better then Nothing at all
Warming..


Quoting 1863. GatorWX:
Good news image of the day for at least some floridians. Good grief eh?


I'm reading most of the stronger activity will be inland and maybe also west coast (no sure about West).
Rain coming in
Quoting 1880. KeysieLife:


Isn't that better than a complete deluge though? Annoying, yes, but gives the ground a better chance to absorb the moisture.


Not gonna help with the quarter to half inch gaps around the foundation of the house. But it's more than the water sprinkler will do in an hours time. Where I'm at the vegetation is dead or being destroyed, it's already too late.
1886. SLU
Every single seasonal model I've seen so far this season calls for dry anomalies north of the Caribbean and above average to average rainfall in the Caribbean which by my interpretation means that the models believe that the Caribbean may be very active this year with little activity going north of the Caribbean as a result of the persistent high pressures off the eastern US.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 1869. pcola57:


Mornin' neighbor..
Glad to see you here this am..
They had an airshow this weekend here and weather became a factor..
So they started a little early and stopped early as well..
It was quite a show..
I watched from the comfort of my chair at home..
Best seats anywhere..Lol..
I'm not a beach person but I am a airshow freak..
No Blue Angels of course due to sequestration..
They have flown their last show until next year if we can get a budget through Congress..
Anyway good to see ya this am.. :)


I normally drive the boat down to see the Air Show but with no Blue Angels I spent the day at Crab Island. All this rain has really done a number on the water. Crab Island water is typically crystal clear but this weekend it was dark brown like a dirty river. You couldn't see your feet in 2 feet of water. Hopefully we can dry out some this week. Texas take all the rain you want please!
the MDR and caribbean and gulf sst anomalies are actually average. thoughts?
When Sago palms are dying and turning brown near a Chevron gas station, you know it hasn't been raining
Good Morning, afternoon, and evening all-

Mostly sunny and warm here, 80 degrees by 8 a.m.. and pretty humid too. We are in Wilted Wife mode here. Surprised to find that we're not much cooler than NOLA.

Totally missed our house, hoping for rainfall at some point.
Quoting 1878. RitaEvac:
Picked up 0.13" Saturday, then some light stuff this morning. It was something in the gauge, but if that's all it's gonna do, it mind as not even rain.

Quoting 1893. fireflymom:
Totally missed our house, hoping for rainfall at some point.



I watered the foundation last night and the flowerbeds along the house, strolled down the sidewalk and the grass between the sidewalks and curb of the road are literally dead, looked like winter time it was surreal.
Lack of rain and there fore drought is such a sad thing to watch as the green thing perish. Watered half our yard yesterday trying to keep the foundation stable. Frustrating when the rain appears to part and go around your corner of the world.  We have a few more days of possibilities and most grasses will recover from the roots. Trees not so much.
Quoting 1895. RitaEvac:


I watered the foundation last night and the flowerbeds along the house, strolled down the sidewalk and the grass between the sidewalks and curb of the road are literally dead, looked like winter time it was surreal.

Oh and did I mention the mosquitoes are out?! have no fricking clue how or why but they are out, I'm guessing they were a salt marsh hatch off from a high tide, I have no idea. Drought with mosquitoes now
Quoting 1896. fireflymom:
Lack of rain and there fore drought is such a sad thing to watch as the green thing perish. Watered half our yard yesterday trying to keep the foundation stable. Frustrating when the rain appears to part and go around your corner of the world.  We have a few more days of possibilities and most grasses will recover from the roots. Trees not so much.



These cells that are passing by are so damn small and molecular and nano size that it's ridiculous, gotta have large scale size cells passing over, just shows the atmospheric feedback with lack of soil moisture is in affect.
Quoting 1882. stormchaser19:
Warming..




Nice!
Good morning everyone...I went to bed last night staring at this image, wakes up to see the 06z GFS model :O



1901. Grothar
Quoting 1886. SLU:
Every single seasonal model I've seen so far this season calls for dry anomalies north of the Caribbean and above average to average rainfall in the Caribbean which by my interpretation means that the models believe that the Caribbean may be very active this year with little activity going north of the Caribbean as a result of the persistent high pressures off the eastern US.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


We are dry on the ECMWF ... this picture has just spoilt my day XD
Quoting 1900. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...I went to bed last night staring at this image, wakes up to see the 06z GFS model :O




Link
Quoting 1900. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...I went to bed last night staring at this image, wakes up to see the 06z GFS model :O





Will it be another ghost storm... or not!? Wait & see :-)
Quoting 1901. Grothar:

Is this a blob alert tease?

popcorn incoming
1906. JRRP
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...I went to bed last night staring at this image, wakes up to see the 06z GFS model :O




the monster
1907. Patrap
4 new Cases of Fresca has arrived...!

Lots of spin in the atmosphere.

Quoting 1901. Grothar:


Good morning,

Looking at the visuals this AM: Strange swirlie in the GOM around 25n/92w. It doesn't look like a customary exposed Low Level COC. Is it more likely just some kind of interaction in the mid levels?

Not asking for a blob alert or anything. I'm just curious if it's a mid-level thing or not...
1910. LargoFl
Quoting 1897. RitaEvac:
Oh and did I mention the mosquitoes are out?! have no fricking clue how or why but they are out, I'm guessing they were a salt marsh hatch off from a high tide, I have no idea. Drought with mosquitoes now
gee with a month long rain here..the skeeters are all over the place
Quoting 1903. Birthmark:

Link
LOL, I saw this in one of my classes, I want to say either Western Humanities or World Lit.
Quoting 1907. Patrap:
4 new Cases of Fresca has arrived...!



Storm prep complete: Check.
1913. Grothar
Quoting 1905. Chicklit:

Is this a blob alert tease?

popcorn incoming


It is getting that look.



1914. LargoFl
the rains return Rita..here's wens...................
1915. Grothar
Quoting 1903. Birthmark:

Link


I'm not supposed to laugh that hard.
Quoting 1910. LargoFl:
gee with a month long rain here..the skeeters are all over the place
If you want to do work outside you seriously got to wear long sleeve shirt and pants or you will come inside itching with bumps all over.
Quoting 1901. Grothar:


1918. Grothar
Quoting 1909. MechEngMet:


Good morning,

Looking at the visuals this AM: Strange swirlie in the GOM around 25n/92w. It doesn't look like a customary exposed Low Level COC. Is it more likely just some kind of interaction in the mid levels?

Not asking for a blob alert or anything. I'm just curious if it's a mid-level thing or not...


I really haven't checked closely, but I think it is upper level. Regardless. No matter what I write, someone will disagree. :)
1919. LargoFl
Quoting 1916. GTstormChaserCaleb:
If you want to do work outside you seriously got to wear long sleeve shirt and pants or you will come inside itching with bumps all over.
yep i can attest to that lol...mean and hungry lil buggers alright.
1920. LargoFl
Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>16 2-174-175-151700-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WI SE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-B OSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL- MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
857 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013

.NOW...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH NOON WILL VARY UP TO AN INCH WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAIN ACTIVITY COULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDDAY WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

$$

82/JLD
1921. wxmod
The North Pole is 37F degrees right now. This is the latest north pole webcam image.

Quoting 1918. Grothar:


I really haven't checked closely, but I think it is upper level. Regardless. No matter what I write, someone will disagree. :)


Okay thanks. If it's upper or mid level I'm not terribly concerned or anything, but being just North of the BOC... This is the time of the season for homegrown.

However, I do think your East coast potential blob deserves more attention than the GOM.

1923. Grothar
Quoting 1917. hurricanes2018:






1924. Grothar
Quoting 1922. MechEngMet:


Okay thanks. If it's upper or mid level I'm not terribly concerned or anything, but being just North of the BOC... This is the time of the season for homegrown.

However, I do think your East coast potential blob deserves more attention than the GOM.



Why, thank you. That's the nicest thing anybody has sad to me in a long time.
We have a new pouch (PO9L) being analized by the folks who study the waves inside Africa. Let's see what it does as it hits the water in two days

Link
Is it a blob look , or developing TS look ? This question is for Grothar !
1927. LargoFl
Tampa Bay has been very Lucky..last one to hit..1921.....
A whole lotta nothing going on in the Atlantic but shear and dis organized area's of convection/tropical waves.I see the GFS is up to it's tricks again..300+ hours out?.Don't make me laugh..
1929. Grothar
Quoting 1926. EyEtoEyE:
Is it a blob look , or developing TS look ? This question is for Grothar !


It is look I get when Mrs. Grothar finds out I've done something wrong. Usually Cat 3 level.
Quoting 1925. hurricanes2018:
We have a new pouch (PO9L) being analized by the folks who study the waves inside Africa. Let's see what it does as it hits the water in two days

Link
You are doing an awesome job man tracking what is going on in that part of the world and keeping us informed, hey thanks for the link too, never had that one.
So Mrs. Grothar , rules the house , as you said a Cat 3 to a Cat 5 !
1932. LargoFl
flashback in time..i can still remember this one as a kid...........Hurricane Donna raked Florida, most of East Coast

By Chris Cappella, USATODAY.com

Powerful Hurricane Donna roared into the northeast Caribbean at peak intensity late on Sept. 4 1960.

It then rampaged across Puerto Rico and the Bahamas before swiping southern Florida on Sept. 10 with 135 mph sustained winds and peak gusts to 175 mph in the Florida Everglades.

Donna then turned to the northeast and, crossing the Florida Peninsula, raced northward along the East Coast, lashing every state from South Carolina to New York with hurricane-force winds before slamming into New England on Sept. 12 with winds gusts up to 130 mph at Block Island, R.I.

Hurricane Donna crossed Long Island with a 100-mile-wide eye.

In New Haven, Conn., a barometer measured a minimum surface pressure of 966.8 millibars, or 28.55 inches. Only three people perished in New England.
1933. Grothar
Quoting 1928. washingtonian115:
A whole lotta nothing going on in the Atlantic but shear and dis organized area's of convection/tropical waves.I see the GFS is up to it's tricks again..300+ hours out?.Don't make me laugh..


This is the GFS at 384 hours. Now control yourself. I have another one that goes out 964 hours, but I don't think you could control your laughter.

Hey everybody... surprised we don't have a new blog yet.

Wx in Nassau is beautiful today, with SUNSHINE!!! lol

I'm going to be busy today, so will prolly only drop in for a few minutes later on.

Have fun, everyone!
It looks like the TW over Africa , has fallen apart.
1936. Patrap
Quoting 1927. LargoFl:
Tampa Bay has been very Lucky..last one to hit..1921.....
We sure have look how close this one got, the third strongest hurricane in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1850.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb):



A storm like that and the angle at which it past would cause significant if not catastrophic damage up and down the west coast of FL.

1938. LargoFl
Quoting 1937. GTstormChaserCaleb:
We sure have look how close this one got, the third strongest hurricane in the Atlantic since record keeping began in 1850.

1935 Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb):

yeah they do come close but never in..even the 1921 storm went into tarpon springs...
Quoting 1933. Grothar:


This is the GFS at 384 hours. Now control yourself. I have another one that goes out 964 hours, but I don't think you could control your laughter.



1940. LargoFl
so far so good,suns still out here on the west coast.......
1941. Patrap
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1943. txjac
How can the rain be missing me? Got one small shower last night ...I see showers all over but none for me.

With all that I see on radar and satellite I'm still holding out hope that I see some soon