WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Ex-Chantal Unlikely to Develop; Typhoon Soulik Pounding Taiwan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on July 12, 2013

The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Northwest Bahama Islands today, as the storm slides northwards at 10 mph. However, the storm is poorly organized with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and today's hurricane hunter mission into ex-Chantal has been cancelled. Before it dissipated on Wednesday, Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Chantal's remains over the Bahamas, taken at 9 am EDT Friday, July 12, 2013. Note also the clouds at the upper left of the image, associated with a stalled-out cold front over coastal South Carolina. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread northwards into the offshore waters of South Carolina and North Carolina on Saturday and Sunday, and will contribute moisture to a stalled front expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the coast. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is expected to affect the storm through Saturday, so some re-organization is possible. However, given its current disorganized state, it is unlikely that ex-Chantal will become a tropical depression or tropical storm again. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 10% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Soulik approaching Taiwan, taken at 9 pm local time on July 12, 2013. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Typhoon Soulik closes in on Taiwan
Heavy rains are lashing Taiwan as Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds in the Western Pacific, approaches landfall. At 9 pm local time on Friday, Ishigakijima, Japan, on an island in the northern eyewall of Soulik, recorded sustained 10-minute winds of 80 mph. Soulik is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday near 8 pm EDT as a Category 2 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday at around 6 am EDT, most likely as a Category 1 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Taiwan's typhoon history
Taiwan was hit by two typhoons in 2012, Typhoon Tembin (eight killed, $8 million in damage) and Typhoon Saola (six killed, $27 million in damage.) Almost 70 inches fell in some areas of Taiwan, ranking Saola within the top five wettest cyclones to ever hit the island. According to EMDAT, the most expensive typhoon in Taiwan's history was 2009's Typhoon Morakot ($2.3 billion in damage.) The Category 1 storm dumped the most rain by a typhoon ever recorded in Taiwan, up to 2,777 mm (109.3".) The devastating flooding that resulted killed 630 people, making it the 4th deadliest typhoon in Taiwanese history. The deadliest typhoon in Taiwan's history was Category 3 Typhoon Ellen of 1959, which dumped 25 inches (640 mm) of rain in one day (August 7) on the mountains and western plains, triggering catastrophic flooding that killed 1046 people.


Video 1. Demo of the new WunderMap app.

Wunderground releases its WunderMap application for Android tablets and iPad
Weather Underground is pleased to announce the release of its new WunderMap® application for both Android and iOS tablets. This new touch screen version of WunderMap provides access to Weather Underground's unique community of neighborhood weather stations and webcams, as well as animated radar and satellite, hurricane tracking tools, wildfire layers, and much more.

With the WunderMap app, users can tap into one of the 30,000+ personal weather stations to see hyper-local weather conditions and forecasts, track a storm in real-time, and customize a variety of weather layers to access the most relevant weather information. WunderMap® is a fully interactive experience that allows users to customize the weather data plotted on the Google Map interface--making it relevant for both the savvy storm tracker or the casual weather user on the go.

WunderMap and the touch-screen device are a perfect match. Being able to swipe across the world and zoom in to see our hyper-local weather within such an interactive user interface makes WunderMap a unique way to access weather information. Other features of the app include:

- Current conditions, extended forecasts, and weather graphs for every location
- Special weather statements and advisories
- Customizable location presets and favorites
- Enhanced animation options
- Advanced search functionality
- New map interface options
- Free to download in the Google Play or iTunes Store
-Ad-free membership upgrade available for $1.99

You can download the app at www.wundermap.com.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 991. Birthmark:

You appear to misunderstand too much for me to correct it all in one post. So choose one or two things that "they said" that you like best (or least) and I'll try to help you get a grip on the topic.

I always think 'no help4you' when I see that handle.
Quoting 997. HurricaneAndre:
somebody showed me the navy stuff and it didn't,t show 96L with it.


They still have 96L

Link

But they did take down their page for Chantal. Although that's because Chantal and 96L were/are both the same system, so it didn't make sense to have both up.
Quoting 999. Grothar:
Hello boys and girls.

I have models on the next system nailed.






I saw it first.
1005. Patrap

NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team

NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.

2013 Season Storms

All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST
1006. Patrap
Quoting 1004. Camille33:

I saw it first.


I got a wu mail about it furst'
Quoting 982. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The key to these tropical waves over the next few weeks is to watch where they emerge. The one that the GFS was bullishly developing a few days ago is no longer a threat for development because it crossed 10N, and in fact is very close to 15N. Sea surface temperatures up at these latitudes are still marginal, at 25-26C. Farther south below 10N, temperatures are at 27-28C. This is how Chantal developed.

The wave emerging off the coast now is already too far north.

'Tis unfortunate because a more northerly exit latitude is typically a sign of a stronger wave.
Quoting 989. ACEhigh:

Actually, the two million years or so that humans or proto human hominids have been around isn't all that pertinent, since an easy analogue can be found in the late Pliocene around 3 million years ago, the last time that CO2 (non anthropogenic of course) was at 400 ppm. In that age a couple hundred thousand years (give or take a few dozen millennia) before our closest forebears first trod the rift valley, artic temps were 8 degrees Celsius warmer than now. Jump on in, the waters fine!
I like it ! im gunna look into it ! thanks very interesting 8 degrees is a lot.
Hope to get some rain here in Southwest La. Lots of thunder but not a drop of rain yet:(


Gulf vort.... seems decent
1012. ncstorm
we need another storm..fast.
I'm just an Alabama redneck but I don't understand how so many intelligent people can't see how people with all their combustible technologies could not, over time, effect the weather on the planet. Are we immune from inflicting damage to our ecosystem? Politics, the most evil word on this planet ?
Quoting 1012. ncstorm:
we need another storm..fast.

We'll send one. How strong do you like your Dorian?
1015. will40
Quoting 1012. ncstorm:
we need another storm..fast.


yes or wake the mods at least
1016. Patrap
Damn I have never been so scared in my life heavy rain and powerful thunders have been for the last 20 minutes and the wind is making it more scary.I am not even sure why is raining so hard if there isn`t a tw or anything to bring that rain.
1018. ncstorm
Quoting 1014. JrWeathermanFL:

We'll send one. How strong do you like your Dorian?


an invest to TS will do :)
Quoting 1012. ncstorm:
we need another storm..fast.
It has already started today..the politics..bickering and attacks..sigh.
1021. beell
Quoting 998. SomeRandomTexan:


Gulf vorticity seems fairly decent


And we got some good mid and upper level troughiness over the GOM associated with the retrograding upper low that will be in place for several days. The upper trough is modeled as quite sharp and narrow so shear will probably be prohibitive. On the positive side for development, a surge of moisture behind the wave portion of xChantal-currently along 85W. No development expected. Interest is expected however!


07/12 18Z GFS 500 mb vort @ 36 hrs
1022. no1der
Much of science fiction involves travel to other planets or to the distant past, and a lot of us grew up dreaming that someday we'd find ourselves on a voyage to a far-off place or time.
Our uncontrolled experiment in atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics will accomplish these things in fact. We're on our way to a different planet now, one that may become at best something like that of 3-4 million years ago. 
Our species and the ecosystems that support us did not evolve under the atmosphere of the planet to which we're traveling.
Seat belts and tray-tables, folks... it could get rough.
 
Quoting 989. ACEhigh:

Actually, the two million years or so that humans or proto human hominids have been around isn't all that pertinent, since an easy analogue can be found in the late Pliocene around 3 million years ago, the last time that CO2 (non anthropogenic of course) was at 400 ppm. In that age a couple hundred thousand years (give or take a few dozen millennia) before our closest forebears first trod the rift valley, artic temps were 8 degrees Celsius warmer than now. Jump on in, the waters fine!

I have been starring at the RGB loop and either my eyes are loopy or the swirl south of Pensacola is decent. Acually, looks like it fired a few little burst of convection recently... may have a little home brew action in Florida.
Quoting 1021. beell:


And we got some good mid and upper level troughiness over the GOM associated with the retrograding upper low that will be in place for several days. The upper trough is modeled as quite sharp and narrow so shear will probably be prohibitive. On the positive side for development, a surge of moisture behind the wave portion of xChantal-currently along 85W. No development expected. Interest is expected however!


07/12 18Z GFS 500 mb vort @ 36 hrs



interesting enough... :)
Quoting 1002. Chicklit:

I always think 'no help4you' when I see that handle.

LOL! Seems fair to me.
1026. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is active

Quoting 1020. washingtonian115:
It has already started today..the politics..bickering and attacks..sigh.

I'm sorry. I should never have called Al Gore fat. It was unkind of me. I apologize to Mr. Gore and his unfortunately-named wife.
1028. Grothar
The ULL in the Atlantic is the one Levi mentioned a few days ago. Nice twist.

Quoting 1026. Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is active



Hi Pat..How do you embed an animated loop into a still graphic?
1030. Pallis
Quoting 1013. alabamaredneck:
I'm just an Alabama redneck but I don't understand how so many intelligent people can't see how people with all their combustible technologies could not, over time, effect the weather on the planet. Are we immune from inflicting damage to our ecosystem? Politics, the most evil word on this planet ?
That is a simplistic viewpoint. I would venture that the number of humans would be the enemy, not the technology, but the real threat is modern farming and deforestation. In Florida golf courses and irrigated lawns are the main threat to the water supply, but unfortunately that is not a required course in college.
1031. Grothar
Quoting 1017. allancalderini:
Damn I have never been so scared in my life heavy rain and powerful thunders have been for the last 20 minutes and the wind is making it more scary.I am not even sure why is raining so hard if there isn`t a tw or anything to bring that rain.


Allan, you should take control when you are in a weather event like that and shouldn't be scared. Do what I do, sit down, relax and scream until it is over.
I would love a strong hurricane to form in the Atlantic, then to curve and path towards the UK and hit here as a TD.

The Azores high is currently bringing very settled, dry and hot weather to the UK. It's going to be in the mid to late 20s for the majority of July it seems (a good few degrees above average) and the current week's forecast expects temps to be in the late 20s.

I'm all for settled weather this summer across the UK, as the last few years or so have seen major flooding issues across many parts, but I need rain every now and again! And I mean proper rain. Especially because my hay fever has been the worst it's ever been. That's due to our cold spring, so all the plants are pollenating at the same time.
Quoting 1027. Birthmark:

I'm sorry. I should never have called Al Gore fat. It was unkind of me. I apologize to Mr. Gore and his unfortunately-named wife.
This is the stuff I'm talking about right here...Thanks for being my example tonight.Sorry but I'm not married to Mr.Al Gore.
Quoting 1028. Grothar:
The ULL in the Atlantic is the one Levi mentioned a few days ago. Nice twist.



And per the Miami NWS...Forecast to cross south Florida.
1035. hydrus
I never doomcast, but this pattern has the potential to produce several, if not many landfalls...
1036. rod2635
Give us a spin,
A whirl,
A tropical swirl

An Invest,
A test,
Of our forecasting best.

But the models are silent,
The waves travel dormant,
As the blog loses zest for the night
Quoting 1033. washingtonian115:
This is the stuff I'm talking about right here...Thanks for being my example tonight.Sorry but I'm not married to Mr.Al Gore.

I'm kind of pleased, to tell the truth. I've always wanted to be a cautionary tale.

I think I'm paying for it with a lack of rainfall, though.
1038. help4u
LOL!This blog is a doomcast!
Let's see how many castings their are..North casting..north,northwest casting north,northeast casting,west casting,southwest casting,doomcasting,hopecasting,wishcasting,F.L casting,G.A casting,L.A casting,A.L casting,M.S casting,T.X casting,V.A casting,N.C casting,S.C casting,M.D casting.New England casting,Fish/out to sea casting,central america casting..Mexico casting..Canada casting..So much casting :).
Quoting 1030. Pallis:
That is a simplistic viewpoint. I would venture that the number of humans would be the enemy, not the technology, but the real threat is modern farming and deforestation. In Florida golf courses and irrigated lawns are the main threat to the water supply, but unfortunately that is not a required course in college.

More humans do produce more demand, so population is a factor. OTOH, if we weren't digging up fossil carbon and spewing it into the air, there probably would be no significant AGW at all.

And, yes, land use is another problem. That one is due to our large population.
1041. beell
Quoting 1031. Grothar:


Allan, you should take control when you are in a weather event like that and shouldn't be scared. Do what I do, sit down, relax and scream until it is over.


i wind the crap out of my hand-crank storm radio during the stronger gusts. The forearm muscles in my left arm are huge...
1042. Patrap
1029. GeoffreyWPB

..is late for a 9pm Gig here.

I'll have to get back to yas on dat WPB..
1043. hydrus
Quoting 1032. Envoirment:
I would love a strong hurricane to form in the Atlantic, then to curve and path towards the UK and hit here as a TD.

The Azores high is currently bringing very settled, dry and hot weather to the UK. It's going to be in the mid to late 20s for the majority of July it seems (a good few degrees above average) and the current week's forecast expects temps to be in the late 20s.

I'm all for settled weather this summer across the UK, as the last few years or so have seen major flooding issues across many parts, but I need rain every now and again! And I mean proper rain. Especially because my hay fever has been the worst it's ever been. That's due to our cold spring, so all the plants are pollenating at the same time.
This does occur, although not often




Excerpt from Live Science...Hurricane history U.K..

From 1851 to 2010, only 10 extratropical storms, typically the tail ends of tropical cyclones, have hit within 200 miles (322 kilometers) of Ireland, Feltgen said. Hurricane Debbie was the only tropical hurricane to make landfall in that area, clipping the far northwest of the British Isles in 1961.

By the time storms make it across the Atlantic they are no longer getting their energy from the warm water, and they are similar to the winter storms that blow across the ocean, Feltgen said. Also, the strongest winds are no longer confined to the storm's core as they are in a tightly wound hurricane. Katia is expected to bring winds of up to 80 mph (129 kph).

The last time Britain saw winds this strong was in October 1996, when the end of Hurricane Lili pushed across the Atlantic just one day after being downgraded from a hurricane. With winds of up to 90 mph (145 kph), the storm killed five people in Britain and caused $250 million (150 million pounds) in damage.

Winds from former hurricanes hit Britain and Ireland in 2009, three times in 2006, twice in 2000 and once each in 1996 and 1998, according to the Met Office, Britain's official weather agency.

In 2009, Hurricane Bill crossed the Atlantic and hit the UK as a post-tropical storm. The leftovers of hurricanes Alberto, Gordon and Helene all hit the UK in 2006. Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie hit the British Isles as post-tropical storms in 2000. In 1998, southern Britain was hit by the remnants of Hurricane Karl. Katia in Sept-2011 caused winds of 80 mph in Ireland.
Quoting 950. Patrap:

More impressed by the Cuba flareup moreso than either the mlc Ex Chantal or the front into the northern gulf.
1045. Patrap
during the worst of K, Nova,my German Sheperd would look at me, as I looked at da roof, both of us hoping it dint lift up and away..

Scarefactor 8.5
Quoting 1004. Camille33:

I saw it first.


Nonsense! Only Gro can catch 'em first! ;)
1048. hydrus
Quoting 1038. help4u:
LOL!This blog is a doomcast!
it all ends in fire....didnt u know.?
Quoting 1010. SomeRandomTexan:


Gulf vort.... seems decent


Has the track for the Bermuda ULL changed from the east coast of Fla to around and into the gulf? Thought I saw earlier the EURO had a more southern route and GFS or GEM had a more northerly course.
1051. bwi
Nice picture from the north pole web cam today:
Quoting 967. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Might not be able to enjoy life or your kids might not be able to enjoy life if you keep ignoring Global Warming, just saying.


LOL! Thanks, I needed that tonight.
1053. Patrap
Best book a Glacier National Park tour soon as well.
1054. Grothar
Quoting 1034. GeoffreyWPB:


And per the Miami NWS...Forecast to cross south Florida.


Actually I saw it first, but I had to give Levi some credit. :)
1055. Patrap
Climate Connections: Questions from Glacier National Park, MT

Quoting 1014. JrWeathermanFL:

We'll send one. How strong do you like your Dorian?
A category 2hurricane.
1057. ncstorm
Quoting 1051. bwi:
Nice picture from the north pole web cam today:


honest and legit question here..but if a computer contributes to global warming, why would a webcam be at the north pole that is melting due to global warming?
1058. Grothar
Quoting 1044. HurricaneHunterJoe:

More impressed by the Cuba flareup moreso than either the mlc Ex Chantal or the front into the northern gulf.


What flare-up? :)


1059. hydrus
Quoting 1045. Patrap:
during the worst of K, Nova,my German Sheperd would look at me, as I looked at da roof, both of us hoping it dint lift up and away..

Scarefactor 8.5
Had about an hour of that in Charley. During the peak, everything was being ripped to shreddes,,trees, houses, powerlines, but the wind was screaming so loud, you couldnt hear the trees snapping ten feet in front of you. All one could hear is the high pitched shout of the wind through the trees and powerlines. The rain was obliterated it what can best be described as very thick smoke. Here is a nice link of Pt Charlotte video of what happened to a Race Trac gas station..turn it up...Link
1060. hydrus
Quoting 1058. Grothar:


What flare-up? :)


Thats not blow up...thats giant schools of red jellies.
Quoting 1017. allancalderini:
Damn I have never been so scared in my life heavy rain and powerful thunders have been for the last 20 minutes and the wind is making it more scary.I am not even sure why is raining so hard if there isn`t a tw or anything to bring that rain.
Hello where are you located that you had such a nasty storm?? in Florida?.
1062. ACEhigh
Quoting 1053. Patrap:
Best book a Glacier National Park tour soon as well.

Though the loss of this beautiful park whose majesty I have been fortunate enough to experience firsthand (though in its present, truncated form) willno doubt be sad, the true tragedy of glacier loss will unfold in the himalayas, where glaciers are the primary source of rivers that are the only available fresh water source for Billions. Our previous resource skirmishes will be a source of fond nostalgia if two nuclear neighbors who already loathe one another have to fight tooth and nail for the very essence of our existence.
Quoting 1058. Grothar:


What flare-up? :)




Just my imagination, running away with me.....sounds like good song lyrics.
Quoting 1061. Hurricane1956:
Hello where are you located that you had such a nasty storm?? in Florida?.


He is in La Ceiba, Honduras.
Quoting 1025. Birthmark:

LOL! Seems fair to me.

you're a good sport, help4u...sorry about that.
Is everyone allowed to take their meals at their computer?
wow. Chantal is back on floater!


with her name, no less
what the heck?
Quoting 1066. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is everyone allowed to take their meals at their computer?

absolutely permitted as long as you don't tell us what you're eating
Look at this impressive image of a big duststorm that rolled thru Phoenix, Arizona this afternoon.



Link
Quoting 1067. Chicklit:
wow. Chantal is back on floater!


with her name, no less
what the heck?


Doesn't seem like much to me and NHC has only 20%. Does anyone think this will restrengthen back to a tropical storm?
1071. ACEhigh
Quoting 1059. hydrus:
Had about an hour of that in Charley. During the peak, everything was being ripped to shreddes,,trees, houses, powerlines, but the wind was screaming so loud, you couldnt hear the trees snapping ten feet in front of you. All one could hear is the high pitched shout of the wind through the trees and powerlines. The rain was obliterated it what can best be described as very thick smoke. Here is a nice link of Pt Charlotte video of what happened to a Race Trac gas station..turn it up...Link

Unbelievable charley footage. I live in Brevard county just south of cocoa beach and we got maybe a quarter inch of rain and a fresh sw'erly breeze in charley, while Orlando and Titusville just 30 and 50 miles to the north and west had significant effects. Andrew was the same way, only obviously even worse. I have read a lot about Florida's history of hurricanes and realize in a way we were fortunate with both storms, as category 3 and 4 storms of significantly greater diameter have impacted se fl on a somewhat regular basis in the past. In a way, we were very lucky with frances and Floyd, and to some degree even with the catastrophic though compact storms like charley and Andrew.
Quoting 1041. beell:


i wind the crap out of my hand-crank storm radio during the stronger gusts. The forearm muscles in my left arm are huge...


gotta say it... is that only because of cranking your radio? :)
back to the weather. We are getting a decent bit of rain in ECEN FL today and forecast next few days.
Holy Haboob Batman!

Quoting 1069. Tropicsweatherpr:
Look at this impressive image of a big duststorm that rolled thru Phoenix, Arizona this afternoon.



Link
Quoting 1031. Grothar:


Allan, you should take control when you are in a weather event like that and shouldn't be scared. Do what I do, sit down, relax and scream until it is over.
Quoting 1031. Grothar:


Allan, you should take control when you are in a weather event like that and shouldn't be scared. Do what I do, sit down, relax and scream until it is over.
Thanks Gro,it finally stop.Is that it was raining so hard and the sound of thunder make me a little bit scare.Thanks again for your concern:D
1075. Thrawst
.
Quoting 1068. Chicklit:

absolutely permitted as long as you don't tell us what you're eating


lol...my lips are sealed
Quoting 1076. HurricaneHunterJoe:


lol...my lips are sealed


While you eat? That's quiet a trick! ;)
Quoting 1058. Grothar:


What flare-up? :)


I finally see why I receive all that rain that convection seem pretty impressive I lost lights for a few mintutes.I know talking in the phone is bad idea in a thunderstorm but talking to friends really relax people.
Quoting 1067. Chicklit:
wow. Chantal is back on floater!


with her name, no less
what the heck?

I'm done with that storm :p She caused me soo much confusion that i'm done with her and her remnants
Quoting 1078. allancalderini:
I finally see why I receive all that rain that convection seem pretty impressive I lost lights for a few mintutes.I know talking in the phone is bad idea in a thunderstorm but talking to friends really relax people.


If it's a cell or cordless I didn't think it mattered.
Quoting 1070. BaltimoreBrian:


Doesn't seem like much to me and NHC has only 20%. Does anyone think this will restrengthen back to a tropical storm?
I do.
I said a week ago it would do a loop as a TD/TS somewhere north of the Northern Bahamas. Where she'll go and how strong she'll be when she gets there I can not even guess on...the probs are too spread in almost a full 360.
This looks really good..
Quoting 1057. ncstorm:


honest and legit question here..but if a computer contributes to global warming, why would a webcam be at the north pole that is melting due to global warming?


Oh, so thats why we are melting. Damn technology...
1084. beell
xChantal may be on the way to an undressing.

Quoting 1082. washingtonian115:
This looks really good..


It's already too late to be hungry. :P
1086. JLPR2
Quoting 1082. washingtonian115:
This looks really good..


:(
Now I'm hungry...
Quoting 1069. Tropicsweatherpr:
Look at this impressive image of a big duststorm that rolled thru Phoenix, Arizona this afternoon.



Link


I remember what my sis said when she moved there for grad school:

"I didn't know they were serious about these things!"
Quoting 1081. CosmicEvents:
I do.
I said a week ago it would do a loop as a TD/TS somewhere north of the Northern Bahamas. Where she'll go and how strong she'll be when she gets there I can not even guess on...the probs are too spread in almost a full 360.


Perhaps she will regenerate but I just don't see it. However, given how complex tropical cyclone formation is I don't exclude the possibility and I won't be shocked if it happens.
1090. Kumo
Quoting 1040. Birthmark:

More humans do produce more demand, so population is a factor. OTOH, if we weren't digging up fossil carbon and spewing it into the air, there probably would be no significant AGW at all.

And, yes, land use is another problem. That one is due to our large population.


I don't see to much of an issue with utilizing our natural resources. The major concern with me is that we have done it for so long without realizing that our actions are throwing the global system off of balance.

There is plenty of evidence both old and new to confirm that we do have an excessive CO2 problem and that our modern comfort needs are a major cause. Unfortunately it has only been recently that more R&D is going into Carbon Capture and Sequestration and carbon recycling technologies. It does not mean we need to give up burning coal or using petroleum based fuels, doing so would be very damaging to our current economy.

I think once folks get away from focusing on global warming and begin to realize that we need to find a realistic balance between what we put up in the atmosphere compared to what we take back out, we will be much closer to a reasonable solution for everyone.

Link

Instead of a Carbon tax, offer tax breaks to corporations and municipalities that utilize Carbon Capture Trees or similar devices. Heaven knows they need some of these around LA, SLC and Houston.

When the technology gets cheaper, consumers could also have the option of setting up similar devices on their own property. Carbon that is captured could potentially be sold to a manufacturer or turned into a recycling station in exchange for a tax write off.

It might take several decades to return CO2 levels to pre-industrial norms, but by that time we will have likely moved on to new forms of energy for our transportation needs. Hydrocarbon combustion engines will likely be relegated to the world of the enthusiast, but at least they will be able to enjoy that luxury guilt free.
Finally off work i see no Chantal no more
Quoting 1091. bigwes6844:
Finally off work i see no Chantal no more


That's what she WANTS you to think.

*cue evil laugh*
Quoting 1091. bigwes6844:
Finally off work i see no Chantal no more

welcome back!
Quoting SecretStormNerd:


Oh, so thats why we are melting. Damn technology...


Yep gotta be it.

I've just updated my Atlantic tracking chart that now goes all the way up to Chantal. All the TC's and invests, besides invests that have formed into storms, have been labeled. I know I haven't done a blog in almost two weeks, but that's because of me being on vacation (which was great) and having internet issues (which should be finally fixed). I don't know when I'll do my next blog, or if I'll do a review one for when I was gone, but I'm just glad to be back with no issues. Click the image to make it bigger.



lol it looks dead to me
Quoting 1092. Astrometeor:


That's what she WANTS you to think.

*cue evil laugh*
Quoting 1093. Stormchaser121:

welcome back!
thanks storm!
Quoting 1095. wxchaser97:
I've just updated my Atlantic tracking chart that now goes all the way up to Chantal. All the TC's and invests, besides invests that have formed into storms, have been labeled. I know I haven't done a blog in almost two weeks, but that's because of me being on vacation (which was great) and having internet issues (which should be finally fixed). I don't know when I'll do my next blog, or if I'll do a review one for when I was gone, but I'm just glad to be back with no issues. Click the image to make it bigger.





What are you going to do when you have storms whose tracks overlay on top of each other at points?
1098. ACEhigh
Quoting 1083. SecretStormNerd:


Oh, so thats why we are melting. Damn technology...

One can only hope he was being sarcastic...?
Quoting 1097. Astrometeor:


What are you going to do when you have storms whose tracks overlay on top of each other at points?

Then those points will overlap? Not much I can do I guess nor do I see a big problem. My main concern is where to put the name of the storm or invest so it doesn't take up a lot of space.
1100. ACEhigh
Quoting 1090. Kumo:


I don't see to much of an issue with utilizing our natural resources. The major concern with me is that we have done it for so long without realizing that our actions are throwing the global system off of balance.

There is plenty of evidence both old and new to confirm that we do have an excessive CO2 problem and that our modern comfort needs are a major cause. Unfortunately it has only been recently that more R&D is going into Carbon Capture and Sequestration and carbon recycling technologies. It does not mean we need to give up burning coal or using petroleum based fuels, doing so would be very damaging to our current economy.

I think once folks get away from focusing on global warming and begin to realize that we need to find a realistic balance between what we put up in the atmosphere compared to what we take back out, we will be much closer to a reasonable solution for everyone.

Link

Instead of a Carbon tax, offer tax breaks to corporations and municipalities that utilize Carbon Capture Trees or similar devices. Heaven knows they need some of these around LA, SLC and Houston.

When the technology gets cheaper, consumers could also have the option of setting up similar devices on their own property. Carbon that is captured could potentially be sold to a manufacturer or turned into a recycling station in exchange for a tax write off.

It might take several decades to return CO2 levels to pre-industrial norms, but by that time we will have likely moved on to new forms of energy for our transportation needs. Hydrocarbon combustion engines will likely be relegated to the world of the enthusiast, but at least they will be able to enjoy that luxury guilt free.

Two huge problems here. First, there is no current sequestration technology that can even come close to countering our emissions, and the BRIC and other emerging economies will only exacerbate the situation as they develop less pollution producing ways of releasing carbon in their righteous striving to ape our American dream. Two, autocatalysis is on the verge of taking over if it hasn't already. At that point, only the most draconian measures will even make a dent in the problem. Talk of carbon sequestration will reek of lunacy when methane traps in the deepest depths and the (not so ) permafrost are released.
1101. Grothar
Quoting 1063. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Just my imagination, running away with me.....sounds like good song lyrics.


It would be a temptation to write it.
Quoting 1101. Grothar:


It would be a temptation to write it.


you may want to peek at Barb's blog for a sec sir..
;)

Hello? Can you guys help me? I seem to have misplaced my dear old Dr. Masters blog. You know, the one that goes crazy when there is a tropical system? Well, it seems to have runaway since that dunce of a Chantal came through town earlier in the week. she must've done something to it. If you guys could help me find it, I would greatly appreciate it. The blog is almost like family to me. I hope the blog is okay, I would be in much pain if I found out that harm has come to it.
Good Evening everyone! Will we see tracks like this next month or september? The question is are you ready for "The Real Season" to begin? Hopefully everyone has there plans ready and things to bring with them. Dont wait till august or a storm comes. Do it now while its quiet. This my friends is why we have the quiet months and the active months! so now is the time to prepare, dont waste no time!
K

Rita

Wilma

Gustav

Ike

1105. Grothar
This is one set of models currently.



However, there is another set of models that has 96L reforming and moving back SW as the High builds back in.

I will show them to you when they are released.

1106. ACEhigh
Quoting 1084. beell:
xChantal may be on the way to an undressing.


Yup, she cant catch a break. New LLC new shear from the north now. RIP ol' chanty, no more trade jets or ULL's for you, only silence and eternal slumber.
AGU Chapman Conference on Climate Science Communication

Filed under: Climate Science Communicating Climate — gavin @ 8 July 2013

A couple of weeks ago, there was a small conference on Climate Science communication run by the AGU. Both Mike and I attended, but it was very notable that it wasn’t just scientists attending – there were also entertainers, psychologists, film-makers and historians. There were a lot of quite diverse perspectives and many discussions about the what’s, why’s and how’s of climate science communication.

There were a couple of notable features: the conference had a lively twitter hashtag (#climatechapman), and almost the entire proceedings were webcast live (schedule). The video from this has now been posted on YouTube in more bite-sized chunks.
1109. Grothar
Quoting 1102. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you may want to peek at Barb's blog for a sec sir..


Who's Barb?
Quoting 1109. Grothar:


Who's Barb?


Barbamz
Strong thunderstorms just moved through with intense wind, rain, and lightning.

Thunderstorms have persisted in the Western Caribbean all afternoon:

West Atlantic Satellite/Infrared Loop
Link
Quoting 1104. bigwes6844:
Good Evening everyone! Will we see tracks like this next month or september? The question is are you ready for "The Real Season" to begin? Hopefully everyone has there plans ready and things to bring with them. Dont wait till august or a storm comes do it now while its quiet. This my friends is why we have the quiet months and the active months! so now is the time to prepare, dont waste no time!
K

Rita

Wilma

Gustav

Ike


The deadliest hurricane season in the western hemisphere was mostly late.


June 12-14--the "San Antonio" hurricane kills 4000-5000 people as it moves from St. Lucia to Puerto Rico to the Dominican Republic section of Hispaniola.

October 3--"The Savannah la Mar" hurricane sinks several British naval ships of the line at Jamaica and kills a total of about 3,000 people.

October 9-20 "The Great Atlantic Hurricane" kills at least 22,000 in the Antilles.

October 15-20 "Solano Hurricane" cuts the fleet of Spanish Admiral Solano in half from 64 ships with 4,000 sailors in Apalachee bay.
Quoting 1111. GrandCaymanMed:
Strong thunderstorms just moved through with intense wind, rain, and lightning.

Thunderstorms have persisted in the Western Caribbean all afternoon:

West Atlantic Satellite/Infrared Loop
Link


Yep some T-storms are on top of us however it ain't moving anywhere

Also very strong rotations within these thunderstorms one formed on rum point and now in the water a second one is S of the island about to make landfall and is weakening some
Quoting 1114. wunderkidcayman:


Yep some T-storms are on top of us however it ain't moving anywhere

Also very strong rotations within these thunderstorms one formed on rum point and now in the water a second one is S of the island about to make landfall and is weakening some

*edit small spin small vortex
Quoting 1084. beell:
xChantal may be on the way to an undressing.



Is that another out flow boundry or a circulation getting spit out of that mess in the north bahamas?
1117. Grothar
Quoting 1102. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you may want to peek at Barb's blog for a sec sir..


That is a famous Domsgickel.
Quoting 1101. Grothar:


It would be a temptation to write it.


: )
1119. Grothar
Quoting 1113. PedleyCA:
Just my imagination, running away with me


Will anyone ever remember how great they really were?
Quoting 1119. Grothar:


Will anyone ever remember how great they really were?


Who? ;)


1121. Grothar
Quoting 1116. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is that another out flow boundry or a circulation getting spit out of that mess in the north bahamas?



Yes.

1124. Grothar
Quoting 1120. BaltimoreBrian:


Who? ;)


John Adams and Thomas Jefferson you twit. I guess in your case I must be a little more respectful. That would be twit, Sir.
Quoting 1121. Grothar:



Yes.



LOL...I better frame my questions better in the future.....LOL.... : )
Quoting 1119. Grothar:


Will anyone ever remember how great they really were?


Well, um, not looking to burst your bubble or anything, but who are these people anyways?
Chantal to me looks pretty good tonite. Better than anytime since before she blew through the Antilles at breakneck speed. She seems to have hit a sweet spot with great outflow channel(s). I see what could be a LLCOC around 26,79....due east of Flagler Beach. If she winds up meandering for a bit she could be a problem for some. Will be interesting to see what happens in the overnite hours.
Quoting 1124. Grothar:


John Adams and Thomas Jefferson you twit. I guess in your case I must be a little more respectful. That would be twit, Sir.


Not until October then O-6!
Quoting 1122. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thanks Ped


Get any rain yesterday. They reported .04 here. All I saw was it sprinkled for about 30 minutes and barely speckled the street.
Quoting 1127. CosmicEvents:
Chantal to me looks pretty good tonite. Better than anytime since before she blew through the Antilles at breakneck speed. She seems to have hit a sweet spot with great outflow channel(s). I see what could be a LLCOC around 26,79....due east of Flagler Beach. If she winds up meandering for a bit she could be a problem for some. Will be interesting to see what happens in the overnite hours.


Is that east of the Gulf Stream or over it?
1131. beell
Quoting 1116. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is that another out flow boundry or a circulation getting spit out of that mess in the north bahamas?


Appears to be the ill-formed LLC starting to be exposed as it moves under the influence of some stronger upper level winds associated with a rebuilding upper ridge and the base of the TUTT to the east.

Looks unfriendly.


07/13 00Z GFS 200mb @ 6 hrs.


Are we going to have a trof split and the southern/middle part sit here and fester? The northern part heads north or out to sea?
Thunderstorms really putting on a show just south of Cuba:
1134. Grothar
Quoting 1126. Astrometeor:


Well, um, not looking to burst your bubble or anything, but who are these people anyways?


One of the greatest groups rock music ever produced. The Temptations.
Quoting 1098. ACEhigh:

One can only hope he was being sarcastic...?

I see the whole world in sarcasm. It's a wonderful thing.
Quoting 1129. PedleyCA:


Get any rain yesterday. They reported .04 here. All I saw was it sprinkled for about 30 minutes and barely speckled the street.


Same here bro...got the street wet and plopped fatties for a few minutes.
Quoting 1133. GrandCaymanMed:
Thunderstorms really putting on a show just south of Cuba:
could this form into our next named system.And it will get the name Dorain.
I better quit dragging my knuckles on the ground when inquiring to Grothar!
Quoting 1126. Astrometeor:


Well, um, not looking to burst your bubble or anything, but who are these people anyways?


A good Temptations song from 1970
Quoting 1137. HurricaneAndre:
could this form into our next named system.And it will get the name Dorain.


No, lol.
Quoting 1140. KoritheMan:


No, lol.
just a thought,something to do,I,m very bored right now,nothing really significant to track right now.
Quoting 1137. HurricaneAndre:
could this form into our next named system.And it will get the name Dorain.


I believe that is a question for the Senior Blobologist Andre.
Hey Grothar,could this blob under Cuba form into our next named system.And it will get the name Dorain.
Bailing out of here - Stay Safe All
Taiwan Strait

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Soulik (975 hPa) located at 25.7N 120.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
350 NM from the center in east quadrant
210 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.1N 116.6E - Tropical Depression Overland central China
1146. beell
Wind shear is fine the W CARIBBEAN and the Whole GOM.
It has nothing really happening Andre except for the convection. Its not forecast to be a storm. Ya never know....never say never is my motto...but def low odds on it happening. Glad that you are learning a lot here on the blog.
Quoting 1144. PedleyCA:
Bailing out of here - Stay Safe All
good night.
Quoting 1148. HurricaneHunterJoe:
It has nothing really happening Andre except for the convection. Its not forecast to be a storm. Ya never know....never say never is my motto...but def low odds on it happening. Glad that you are learning a lot here on the blog.
Thanks.
Quoting 1139. BaltimoreBrian:


A good Temptations song from 1970
I was thinking of the same song. Here it is with some weather graphics. LinkThe lyrics stand the test of time 40 years later. The Temptations will never be forgotten. When they said "Get Ready", you did.
Quoting 1144. PedleyCA:
Bailing out of here - Stay Safe All



Take care Pedley
1153. Grothar
Quoting 1144. PedleyCA:
Bailing out of here - Stay Safe All


Nite, Grasshopper.
Quoting 1151. CosmicEvents:
I was thinking of the same song. Here it is with some weather graphics. LinkThe lyrics stand the test of time 40 years later. The Temptations will never be forgotten. When they said "Get Ready", you did.


Makes me feel older than I already am....talking about 1970 and I was already fully grown by that date.....LOL
1155. Grothar
Quoting 1143. HurricaneAndre:
Hey Grothar,could this blob under Cuba form into our next named system.And it will get the name Dorain.


I don't think so.
Chantal set speed record before falling apart

Over a 24-hour period on Tuesday and Wednesday, it blazed through the Caribbean at 31.4 mph, setting the record for being the fastest-moving system through the deep tropics, the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

For rest of the story

Link
1157. Grothar
Quoting 1154. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Makes me feel older than I already am....talking about 1970 and I was already fully grown by that date.....LOL


No comment
1158. beell
Some uuugly!

Would everyone hate me if I said Grothar was my favorite blogger? :P
Quoting 1141. HurricaneAndre:
just a thought,something to do,I,m very bored right now,nothing really significant to track right now.

If you think every thunderstorm complex that forms will become a named system, then you're going to have a bad time.

Don't worry, there will be more storms to come in the coming months, sometimes it's good to have a break.
Quoting 1157. Grothar:


No comment


I escaped high school in 1970 and fell into a whole lot of sar-chasms. Been bruised ever since.
Quoting 1159. Hurricane12:
Would everyone hate me if I said Grothar was my favorite blogger? :P
Yes, please leave the blog.
Quoting 1156. unknowncomic:
Chantal set speed record before falling apart

Over a 24-hour period on Tuesday and Wednesday, it blazed through the Caribbean at 31.4 mph, setting the record for being the fastest-moving system through the deep tropics, the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

For rest of the story

Link


I think someone forgot about tropical storm Colin from 2010.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



15.8N seems like the deep tropics to me.


*EDIT* the story said 24 hour motion so that is a new record. Colin moved 'only' 600 miles in the previous 24 hours so that was 25 mph.
Quoting 1162. unknowncomic:
Yes, please leave the blog.


Back to lurking mode. :3
Quoting 1159. Hurricane12:
Would everyone hate me if I said Grothar was my favorite blogger? :P
Just kidding, you can stay. Grothar is probably the best liked on this blog, next to me!
Quoting 1163. BaltimoreBrian:


I think someone forgot about tropical storm Colin from 2010.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



15.8N seems like the deep tropics to me.


*EDIT* the story said 24 hour motion so that is a new record.
Colin was mostly under 23 mph. Only once did NHC said Colin was 35 mph and that was before declaring it a depression.
Quoting 1163. BaltimoreBrian:


I think someone forgot about tropical storm Colin from 2010.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



15.8N seems like the deep tropics to me.


*EDIT* the story said 24 hour motion so that is a new record.
Was that 35 MPH avg speed over its life?
Quoting 1167. unknowncomic:
Was that 35 MPH avg speed over its life?


No it was for the previous 6 hours. During the previous 24 hours Colin movied only 25 mph. So it's a valid find on your part. I wasn't doubting you btw, I was thinking that the NHC had made a mistake in their news release. They did not.
1169. K8eCane
Quoting 1165. unknowncomic:
Just kidding, you can stay. Grothar is probably the best liked on this blog, next to me!


There is a pic of Grothar on his blog. Hes a hot daddy LOL
1170. Grothar
Quoting 1164. Hurricane12:


Back to lurking mode. :3


comic is just messing with you. :) He's just jealous because I do my stand-up routines lying down. Thanks, that was very nice.
1171. centex
Group ban in order
Even in active seasons July can prove to be an inactive month:

1950 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



2000 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



Notice when August rolls around the action starts!
1173. Grothar
Quoting 1169. K8eCane:


There is a pic of Grothar on his blog. Hes a hot daddy LOL


Everybody looks good when their 20. When they said Father Time marches on, I didn't think it would be across my face.
1174. Dakster
Quoting 1154. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Makes me feel older than I already am....talking about 1970 and I was already fully grown by that date.....LOL


Was that 1970 BC or AD?
1175. Dakster
Quoting 1173. Grothar:


Everybody looks good when their 20. When they said Father Time marches on, I didn't think it would be across my face.


I got trampled - you only got it across the face?
Quoting 1172. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Even in active seasons July can prove to be an inactive month:

1950 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



2000 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



Notice when August rolls around the action starts!
Now's the time to get things done before it gets crazy and you are glued to the blog.
Also, the ULL moving west is siphoning moisture from Chantal's remnants.

This is curious. That 5 p.m. advisory had Colin moving 35 mph.

The position at 5 p.m. was 15.8N 53.8W


The position 6 hours earlier was 14.2N 49.5W

Using the Latitude/Longitude Distance Calculator gives a movement of 307 miles in 6 hours or 51.4 mph!
1178. Dakster
Quoting 1177. BaltimoreBrian:
This is curious. That 5 p.m. advisory had Colin moving 35 mph.

The position at 5 p.m. was 15.8N 53.8W


The position 6 hours earlier was 14.2N 49.5W

Using the Latitude/Longitude Distance Calculator gives a movement of 307 miles in 6 hours or 51.4 mph!


And we thought Chantal was moving fast.
Quoting 1173. Grothar:


Everybody looks good when their 20. When they said Father Time marches on, I didn't think it would be across my face.


Check your email for the song I sent you. It wouldn't do to post that song here ;)
Quoting 1172. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Even in active seasons July can prove to be an inactive month:

1950 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



1955 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



2000 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



Notice when August rolls around the action starts!


1950 hurricane season was crazy!!!!!!!!
Above.
Quoting 1181. stormchaser19:
Above.


I think the fast trades driving Chantal may have caused evaporation and mixing that brought temps down for a little while.
Quoting 1171. centex:
Group ban in order
This sounds too kinky for the blog, somehow...

So far limited rainfall in Nassau for me. It does sound like a few thunderstorms are building to the south of New Providence, though, so maybe we'll get more overnight...

I'm heading to dreamland, all... have a wonderful night!
I can already tell the CMC has dropped the Gulf storm YET AGAIN.
Quoting 1181. stormchaser19:
Above.

And after falling to some pretty low levels, GOM SST anomalies have started to come back up.

1186. 7544
Quoting 1176. unknowncomic:
Now's the time to get things done before it gets crazy and you are glued to the blog.
Also, the ULL moving west is siphoning moisture from Chantal's remnants.



and this where the models were bending her west exchantel remember now the ull below so fl moves west and drags all the moistue with it right to east coast of fla watch .
Quoting 1158. beell:
Some uuugly!


We know where the ULL are in this picture, and the Dry Air :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 1176. unknowncomic:
Now's the time to get things done before it gets crazy and you are glued to the blog.
Also, the ULL moving west is siphoning moisture from Chantal's remnants.

Conditions look hostile right now and will probably remain hostile for the next two weeks. So long as ULL's are spinning away out there and the A/B High remains strong and further south activity should be surpressed. You can never rule out close to home development like the GOM, BOC, and Western Caribbean. The formation of Chantal was impressive according to climatology and where she formed. I am calling for 15/8/5, my analogs are 1979, 1988, 1996, 1998, and 2004. I included years after 1950 mainly citing the change in climate patterns. I noticed something funky about the storm tracks pre-1950s that you rarely see these days.
ASCAT..
1190. beell
Quoting 1187. taco2me61:

We know where the ULL are in this picture, and the Dry Air :o)

Taco :o)


Pretty hard to hide!

The closed low over Kentucky may be a rainy weather story as it backs to the southwest over the next few days.
Yeeeepppp it did. CMC dropped another ghost storm. Shame shame shame.
Quoting 1180. stormchaser19:


1950 hurricane season was crazy!!!!!!!!
You got that right, a record of 8 major hurricanes form that year and Dog was a BEAST!:



Quoting 1188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Conditions look hostile right now and will probably remain hostile for the next two weeks. So long as ULL's are spinning away out there and the A/B High remains strong and further south activity should be surpressed. You can never rule out close to home development like the GOM, BOC, and Western Caribbean. The formation of Chantal was impressive according to climatology and where she formed. I am calling for 15/8/5, my analogs are 1979, 1988, 1996, 1998, and 2004. I included years after 1950 mainly citing the change in climate patterns. I noticed something funky about the storm tracks pre-1950s that you rarely see these days.


I'm sorry but the reason why the difference back in the Pre-50's was because of Data..... They did not have the tools back then, from what we have today.....
I would almost bet they are pretty close to the same because of the cycle they are in... Just saying...
And I do not believe in Climate Change or Global Warming..
Just my 2 cents worth and my "opinion"

Taco :o)
Quoting 1188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Conditions look hostile right now and will probably remain hostile for the next two weeks. So long as ULL's are spinning away out there and the A/B High remains strong and further south activity should be surpressed. You can never rule out close to home development like the GOM, BOC, and Western Caribbean. The formation of Chantal was impressive according to climatology and where she formed. I am calling for 15/8/5, my analogs are 1979, 1988, 1996, 1998, and 2004. I included years after 1950 mainly citing the change in climate patterns. I noticed something funky about the storm tracks pre-1950s that you rarely see these days.
And what was that.
Is that an eye in the Bermuda ULL? :p
Sigh

Still July... of course, conditions aren't going to be favorable.
Quoting 1196. AtHomeInTX:
Sigh


You all need the rain "Bad" over there.... I will try to send you some from the GOM. I know we have had enough here on this side of the Gulf

Taco :o)
Quoting 1193. taco2me61:


I'm sorry but the reason why the difference back in the Pre-50's was because of Data..... They did not have the tools back then, from what we have today.....
I would almost bet they are pretty close to the same because of the cycle they are in... Just saying...
And I do not believe in Climate Change or Global Warming..
Just my 2 cents worth and my "opinion"

Taco :o)
That was my thinking exactly, lack of data or satellite to catch all the storms wayyy out in the Atlantic or perhaps what we would consider a TD or TS today might not have fit that description back then, I dunno? But the storms closer to home and the ones that made landfall their was enough report on the ground to lead me to believe those tracks were pretty accurate. The 2 storms that bother me today is Dog and Easy of 1950. It's believed that the 2 storms were close enough to each other to cause a fujiwhara interaction which is why Easy had such an erratic track, if we had something like that nowadays this blog would go nuts! It would be kind of cool to see, albeit not the strength of the 2 storms :)
1200. Dakster
Raning here now.. Again... I wish I could send some to texas.
One weird looking tropical storm...
Quoting 1198. taco2me61:

You all need the rain "Bad" over there.... I will try to send you some from the GOM. I know we have had enough here on this side of the Gulf

Taco :o)


Thanks Taco. :) I know y'all are sick of the rain over there. I haven't given up hope on the rain so far this year...yet.
Quoting 1201. Stormchaser121:
One weird looking tropical storm...
For a second there I thought that was Don, but right click the image and it appears to be Elena of '79.
Quoting 1199. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That was my thinking exactly, lack of data or satellite to catch all the storms wayyy out in the Atlantic or perhaps what we would consider a TD or TS today might not have fit that description back then, I dunno? But the storms closer to home and the ones that made landfall their was enough report on the ground to lead me to believe those tracks were pretty accurate. The 2 storms that bother me today is Dog and Easy of 1950. It's believed that the 2 storms were close enough to each other to cause a fujiwhara interaction which is why Easy had such an erratic track, if we had something like that nowadays this blog would go nuts! :)

You are 100% right and this Blog would be so crazy that I would not even be able to keep up with all the "Pages" going by every 2 minutes.... LOL
Heck I barely kept up with Chantal :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 1203. GTstormChaserCaleb:
For a second there I thought that was Don, but right click the image and it appears to be Elena of '79.

Yeah thats the one! Looks odd!
Quoting 1204. taco2me61:

You are 100% right and this Blog would be so crazy that I would not even be able to keep up with all the "Pages" going by every 2 minutes.... LOL
Heck I barely kept up with Chantal :o)

Taco :o)
Actually Taco I think this would make the blog go crazy.



David, Frederic, Elena, and 2 TDs.
Quoting 1200. Dakster:
Raning here now.. Again... I wish I could send some to texas.
Same here in NC... we got few extra inches and Texas can have them if they need it.
Quoting 1203. GTstormChaserCaleb:
For a second there I thought that was Don, but right click the image and it appears to be Elena of '79.


Lol. I didn't even think of that I was fixing to ask.
1209. Patrap
Elena was a bad Hurricane, and one tough eyewall, esp the backside as it came in.

One could hear the winds a coming a full 2 minutes before they picked up from the Sw.

Elena was retired as well.

Hurricane Elena (Eye) - Biloxi, Mississippi - September 2, 1985

Quoting 1206. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually Taco I think this would make the blog go crazy.



David, Frederic, Elena, and 2 TDs.

I so remember that and of course Fredrick hit us here in Mobile.... I wish that on "No One"

Taco :o)
Typhoon Soulik is now approaching China coastline

1212. Patrap
Quoting 1209. Patrap:
Elena was a bad Hurricane, and one tough eyewall, esp the backside as it came in.

One could hear the winds a coming a full 2 minutes before they picked up from the Sw.

Elena was retired as well.

Hurricane Elena (Eye) - Biloxi, Mississippi - September 2, 1985


Hey Pat I remember Elena in 85. That's the one that went back and forth across the gulf before it hit MS

Taco :o)
Okay... could the pple upstairs please stop bowling??? I'm trying to get some sleep down here...

The rain is finally down, btw, though how long it will last, who knows...

BAHA
Hey GT...I have a feeling that in Aug/Sept...we will have more then one to track like in that pic...so the blog may very well go that crazy!
1217. Patrap
Quoting 1213. taco2me61:

Hey Pat I remember Elena in 85. That's the one that went back and forth across the gulf before it hit MS

Taco :o)


Yup. we got to prepare twice for it.

Luckily, it came n at a angle to the coastline so the surge was not as bad as if it came straight in.


Hurricane Elena in the Gulf of Mexico from Space Shuttle Discovery on September 1, 1985

Formed August 28, 1985

Dissipated September 4, 1985

Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
125 mph (205 km/h)

Lowest pressure 953 mbar (hPa); 28.14 inHg

Fatalities 9 total

Damage $1.3 billion (1985 USD)


Areas affected Cuba, United States (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky)
Part of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season

another tropical storm from 1979 didn't look like a lot. But she was a mess for sure. I actually remember this one.



Claudette produced torrential rains in both Texas and Louisiana when it made landfall. The highest one-day total was reported near Alvin, Texas where 42 inches (1,100 mm) of rain fell. This remains the twenty-four hour rainfall record for any location in the United States.[6] Two other towns also reported rainfall totals exceeding 30 inches.[6] There was only one death from drowning and Louisiana received only minor damage from up to 15 inches (381 mm) of rainfall.[7] Texas was hard hit by Claudette, with flooding reported in southeast Texas from up to 45 inches (1143 mm) of rainfall. Many residents had to be rescued from low lying areas that were flooded.[6]

Tides reached 4 feet (1.2 m) mean sea-level in Lake Charles, while seas were 3.9 feet (1.2 m) in Cameron. As a result, significant coastal flooding occurred. 8 miles (13 km) of Louisiana Highway 82 was either seriously damage or destroyed, while 14 miles (23 km) of secondary roads were impacted in Cameron Parish. Several boats in the region capsized at the beaches. Seven homes and fishing camps were significantly damage or destroyed by waves and strong winds in Johnson Bayou. At Constance Beach in Cameron Parish, up to 40 feet (12 m) of sand was eroded along a 1 mile (1.6 km) long section.[8]

On July 28, 1979, then-President of the United States Jimmy Carter issued a disaster declaration for Texas, allowing the counties of Brazoria, Chambers, Dallas, Galveston, Jefferson and Orange to be eligible for government aid in order to recover from flooding.[11]

1219. Patrap
"Band on the run"....


Stuck inside these four walls, sent inside forever..
You know Pat it really was not that Bad here in Mobile. A few trees down and a ton of Rain but that's about it.... Of course with Fredrick still fresh on our minds, you know everyone here got ready twice too....

Taco :o)
1221. beell
Hey, check the TWO.
2:00AM TWO. What about this ?

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
1223. Patrap
I was on Pass Road in Long Beach, Miss for Elena,..in Sept 85.

Looked right up her eyewall when It came over
Quoting 1221. beell:
Hey, check the TWO.

Wait where did this come from????
I was not wanting this now. But it can move west to Texas they need the rain :o)

Taco :o)
1225. Patrap

It has been raining with thunder for nearly 2 hours now. I am not forecasting tropical development out of this mess in the NW Caribbean, unless it persists through tomorrow and Sunday. If that happens, then tropical development may occur.
Quoting 1221. beell:
Hey, check the TWO.


Thanks beell, I was like "Why should I check the....Whoa."
1228. Patrap
Storm reports for the day, the watch that was up for portions of Minnesota and South Dakota was essentially a bust. There was a line, but no heavy winds associated with the line or large hail.



Edit: Anyways, I am out till tomorrow afternoon. Night WU. Morning Aussie.
I'm sorry but I do not see a Low forming there:
Maybe someone else can help me out with this :o)

Taco :o)
TRMM pass of the outer band of Soulik.
1232. beell
Quoting 1224. taco2me61:

Wait where did this come from????
I was not wanting this now. But it can move west to Texas they need the rain :o)

Taco :o)


About to call it a night here. It got some traffic today. You'd have to read back. Mainly a frontal thing for now.
Quoting 1230. taco2me61:
I'm sorry but I do not see a Low forming there:
Maybe someone else can help me out with this :o)

Taco :o)


There's the stalled frontal low there, so there's always a small chance that something might spin up in the warm waters of the GOM. I don't see anything currently that's spinning, but it's nice to know that the NHC reads this blog.
Quoting 1232. beell:


About to call it a night here. It got some traffic today. You'd have to read back. Mainly a frontal thing for now.

Thanks I was looking back....
Have a Good Night and we'll chat later on today :o)

Taco :o)
1235. nigel20
Good evening/night all!

I took these pictures yesterday...It's from the rain on Thursday. The land is being reclaimed after Bauxite mining, but you can see the amount of water that got accumulated on Thursday.

Williamsfield Manchester, Jamaica



Quoting 1231. Skyepony:
TRMM pass of the outer band of Soulik.


Wasn't a good link for me Skye ..
Did they mention the wave.
1238. Patrap
MJO is in the Eastern Hemisphere.
Oh I forgot to state why I chose those analogs in post 1188 silly me. Well here goes...The Bermuda High looks strong this year and is set up right on top of Bermuda and has not moved much. The Azores High looks weaker this year. What that means is for the Cape Verde waves that come off the coast of Africa that develop strong will likely feel the weakness and recurve early, but for those waves that stay weaker they will likely move across the Atlantic and be more of a threat to land.

Now what I am still unsure about is where those storms that track across the Atlantic will end up going the ones that don't recurve. I am inclined to say the East Coast because of the break in the Bermuda High and the Central Plains High, but then again you have to account for the bridging of the 2 ridges or a rebuilding ridge that could keep the storm on a due west path.

In terms of paths farther west, say Central America or the GOM it may come down to the strength and positioning of the Central Plains Ridge a weaker ridge would allow those storms to enter the GOM a stronger ridge would steer it west into Central America.
1241. Patrap
Quoting 1236. whitewabit:


Wasn't a good link for me Skye ..

Works for me. It's a large quicktime movie. Might take a moment to load, or not work if you don't have quicktime. Sorry I usually warn those.
1243. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:

Wait where did this come from????
I was not wanting this now. But it can move west to Texas they need the rain :o)

Taco :o)

What you're seeing is our "not as hot" front that has pushed out into the Gulf. It is forecasted to lift back north by Sunday as a low forms along the boundary. I'm not sure why the NHC took notice of this forecasted low, since there's no chance it will stay in the Gulf long enough to form anything. The NHC must be as bored as most of the people on this blog. :-)
Maybe the future 97L will form into TS Dorian.
ENSO
Quoting 1243. sar2401:

What you're seeing is our "not as hot" front that has pushed out into the Gulf. It is forecasted to lift back north by Sunday as a low forms along the boundary. I'm not sure why the NHC took notice of this forecasted low, since there's no chance it will stay in the Gulf long enough to form anything. The NHC must be as bored as most of the people on this blog. :-)


like someone else said The NHC reads this blog and does these TWO's to mess with all of us, then laughs at just how many post will this cause....

Taco :o)
Intéressant...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ARE
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN


1248. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Did they mention the wave.

What wave, and where?
1249. nigel20
Typhoon Soulik soaks Taiwan, heads for mainland China

(CNN) -- Typhoon Soulik continued its trek over Taiwan on Saturday, where it lashed the capital of Taipei with strong winds and at least eight inches of rain in one day.

It is predicted to drench the island's mountain regions with up to 14 inches of rain before moving on to the coast of mainland China in the early evening, CNN meteorologist Samantha Mohr said.

Soulik's winds have died down to a maximum sustained speed of 85 mph, making it the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane.

The storm has lost its eye and will continue to weaken as it curves to the north over China, but it will continue dumping heavy rains over the country's east.
This week in south-central China, downpours triggered flooding and landslides that killed dozens and wiped out thousands of homes. More than 100 are still missing, according to Sichuan province officials.

The typhoon's path should spare the region, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

But it will drop rain on areas in the east and north already soaked.
Where I think Gulf Low may be forming: NHC has given this area a 10% chance of development. I'm not expecting anything, but as Justin Bieber says, "Never say never".

Observe the dry air coming in from the NW, and the moist flow out of the SW to the east of the low.

Northeastern Gulf feature is interesting.
1252. Patrap
1254. Patrap
1255. Patrap
Red_Bay
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Did they mention the CV wave.
1257. nigel20
Quoting 1226. GrandCaymanMed:

It has been raining with thunder for nearly 2 hours now. I am not forecasting tropical development out of this mess in the NW Caribbean, unless it persists through tomorrow and Sunday. If that happens, then tropical development may occur.

Yeah, You can see quite a bit of activity on your radar.

Gulf low: I looked at some more radar and water vapor loops and here is my estimate for where the low is forming.
Quoting 1240. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh I forgot to state why I chose those analogs in post 1188 silly me. Well here goes...The Bermuda High looks strong this year and is set up right on top of Bermuda and has not moved much. The Azores High looks weaker this year. What that means is for the Cape Verde waves that come off the coast of Africa that develop strong will likely feel the weakness and recurve early, but for those waves that stay weaker they will likely move across the Atlantic and be more of a threat to land.

Now what I am still unsure about is where those storms that track across the Atlantic will end up going the ones that don't recurve. I am inclined to say the East Coast because of the break in the Bermuda High and the Central Plains High, but then again you have to account for the bridging of the 2 ridges or a rebuilding ridge that could keep the storm on a due west path.

In terms of paths farther west, say Central America or the GOM it may come down to the strength and positioning of the Central Plains Ridge a weaker ridge would allow those storms to enter the GOM a stronger ridge would steer it west into Central America.


I have no scientific reasons for my season numbers just wishful thinking. 14/4/1

As far as analogs, can't really say on that either as I haven't studied enough past years other than this kind of reminds me of 2007 or 2008 because of the ridging. But this is just me musing late at night. :)
1260. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:


like someone else said The NHC reads this blog and does these TWO's to mess with all of us, then laughs at just how many post will this cause....

Taco :o)

LOL...one wonders sometimes. If you pull up the southeast regional radar, you can clearly see the front pushing off shore, and a possible low forming on the eastern end. The front has mostly stalled over south Alabama and Georgia and the trough has outrun the front. It may be that a low will form while over the Gulf, but the entire mess will move back north. The low will not be in a good environment, surrounded by dry air and much lower than average SST's. The circulation from the ULL that's 96L should push this low and attendant front back north and hopefully bring us some rain. I guess there is a small chance that circulation could push the low a little westward before it comes back north, so maybe that's why they gave it the 10% circle. I still think they're basically bored. :-)
Quoting 1257. nigel20:

Yeah, You can see quite a bit of activity on your radar.



Thanks for the link! Yes it is coming down here. Big puddles on West Bay Road and around Fosters Food Store; the whole roadway into the shopping complex flooded.
1262. nigel20
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather now

RT @anthonywx: MASSIVE: #Soulik rainfall over #Taiwan: Bailin: 944mm (37.0in), Song-an: 869.5mm (34.23in), Shaolai: 857mm (33.74in)
1263. nigel20
Quoting 1261. GrandCaymanMed:


Thanks for the link! Yes it is coming down here. If this persists for another 24-48 hours then tropical development may be possible.

Yeah, no problem!
1264. sar2401
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
Gulf low: I looked at some more radar and water vapor loops and here is my estimate for where the low is forming.

Probably more east and certainly not that far south in the Gulf. This is going to be a tiny little thing and be gone before anyone even knew it was there.
1265. Patrap
1266. Patrap
Quoting 1264. sar2401:

Probably more east and certainly not that far south in the Gulf. This is going to be a tiny little thing and be gone before anyone even knew it was there.


That looked like where it was on radar, but you are right- since radar is at an angle it is reading the higher elevation cloud tops, so the developing low is likely further north than I placed it...
1268. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop


click image for loop

ZOOM is active

1269. Patrap
Remember Lee and Debby stayed in water and developed close to land.
Quoting 1258. GrandCaymanMed:
Gulf low: I looked at some more radar and water vapor loops and here is my estimate for where the low is forming.


No offense, but water vapor imagery is not a useful predictor for tracking developing low pressure systems. How can a determinant solely for the mid and upper tropospheric be pragmatic in detecting incipient surface systems?
1272. Patrap
Quoting 1271. KoritheMan:


No offense, but water vapor imagery is not a useful predictor for tracking developing low pressure systems. How can a determinant solely for the mid and upper tropospheric be pragmatic in detecting incipient surface systems?


You'll never get a dance with those lines at the Party.

HA-rumph
Maybe some good news on both accounts?

WPC extended

...SOUTHWEST US...

ANOTHER RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW
DRIFTS WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
THU AND FRI 19 JUL.
THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS COUPLED WITH AN OPEN GULF MOISTURE TAP SPELLS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS IN WEST TX/NM. THE RAINFALL HAS POTENTIAL TO MAKE
UP FOR THE ONGOING RAINFALL DEFICIT/PROVIDE PARTIAL RELIEF TO A
DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION. THE LATEST CPC DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NM/WEST TX-TX
PANHANDLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOW VALUES 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN WEST TX/NM...SO THE PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW
WED-THU ALSO PROVIDES MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

...FL AND GULF COAST...

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERLIES
MIGRATING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE GEFS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES SUGGEST DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST ANTICYCLONE MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHEAST
FL/ADJACENT GA WED-THU.
Quoting 1272. Patrap:


You'll never get a dance with those lines at the Party.

HA-rumph


Oh I know. :D
Quoting 1270. HurricaneAndre:
Remember Lee and Debby stayed in water and developed close to land.


But both had more than 48 hours over water. :P
1276. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Remember Lee and Debby stayed in water and developed close to land.

TS Lee formed much further west and much further out int the Gulf. The area was in a very moist and unstable airmass. The upper difluence was very favorable, and it developed in an area that had several rounds of disturbed weather. Even the original depression was quite large. It was also August 31, not mid-July.

TS Debby is an even worse example, since she formed from a low off the Yucatan, and that low merged with a trough in the Gulf. The normal steering currents in the Gulf had collapsed, and Debby meandered eastward even when the track forecast called for her to go west. She was also large and slow moving, and completely unconnected to any low that was spawned from a shallow trough coming from a terrestrial front. She stayed in the Gulf for four days, and high SST's helped overcome the wind shear that was against her.

I know you want some kind of storm to track, but simply because two other storms happened to form in the Gulf relatively near shore does not make them good analogues. You would learn a lot more if you simply watched what developed and then looked for analogues when there is something actually there. A 10% circle is not much to go on.
1277. sar2401
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Maybe some good news on both accounts?

WPC extended

...SOUTHWEST US...

ANOTHER RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW
DRIFTS WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
THU AND FRI 19 JUL.
THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS COUPLED WITH AN OPEN GULF MOISTURE TAP SPELLS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS IN WEST TX/NM. THE RAINFALL HAS POTENTIAL TO MAKE
UP FOR THE ONGOING RAINFALL DEFICIT/PROVIDE PARTIAL RELIEF TO A
DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION. THE LATEST CPC DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NM/WEST TX-TX
PANHANDLE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOW VALUES 2-3 STD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN WEST TX/NM...SO THE PROXIMITY OF THE CLOSED LOW
WED-THU ALSO PROVIDES MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

...FL AND GULF COAST...

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERLIES
MIGRATING THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GULF
COAST STATES. THE GEFS PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES SUGGEST DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST ANTICYCLONE MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NORTHEAST
FL/ADJACENT GA WED-THU.

It certainly looks a little more hopeful for Texas. Unfortunately, that dry air wrapping around high pressure system that should move in after this low and warm front move north will also cut Alabama off from the Gulf flow. That means hot weather and very little chance for rain for us. I know you guys in Texas need it a lot more than we in Alabama do, but I'd sure like to get a little more insurance rain before about July 20, when our highs will be back up to about 150 degrees. :-)
1278. Patrap


Portlight and FODAC Continue a Long-Time Partnership



Portlight Strategies, Inc. has been helping people with disabilities since 1997. The main focus of the Charleston South Carolina based non-profit is disaster relief. When a disaster strikes, Portlight delivers durable medical equipment to those who lost such equipment during natural disasters.

FODAC (Friends of Disabled Adults and Children), an Atlanta Georgia based non-profit, takes donated materials, fixes them up and gives them to individuals and organizations, like Portlight, at little to no cost. FODAC has been operating as a “green” company since 1986 and has distributed more than 29,000 wheelchairs to date at little to no cost to the recipients.

From Portlight’s beginning, FODAC has been crucial to Portlight’s work. FODAC has provided thousands of dollars of durable medical equipment to Portlight to be distributed to those in need after natural disasters. Recently Portlight has been very involved with the victims of Hurricane Sandy and the victims of the tornado in Moore Oklahoma.

“FODAC has been essential to the work Portlight has done after hurricane Sandy and the tornado in Moore Oklahoma. We have a long history together. It’s great to be working with them again.”

- Paul Timmons, Board Chair of Portlight Strategies, Inc.

“We could not leverage the manufacturer donations to assist with disasters without key partners like Portlight Strategies, every time we identify a need or they do, they are always ready to work closely with us to move the home medical equipment to those who need it the most.”

“Other disaster relief agencies are trying to overlay a disability needs component but Portlight knows this communities needs and works hard to make sure they are met.”

– Chris Brand, President/CEO of FODAC


For more information about FODAC visit their website at www.fodac.org
1280. sar2401
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:


That looked like where it was on radar, but you are right- since radar is at an angle it is reading the higher elevation cloud tops, so the developing low is likely further north than I placed it...

I think so, but I'm just going off where the lowest pressures were on the front as it stalled out over us in SE Alabama. That band of moisture in the Gulf is mostly high clouds forming out in the Gulf along the boundary of drier continental air and the more moist Gulf air. There's nothing to it in terms of development. The only possible chance I see would be for the low to form about 75 miles south of the Big Bend area and then get pushed west by 96L. That could allow the low to remain over the Gulf for 24 hours or so before pushing back north. If we had higher SST's and stronger westerlies, I might be a little more concerned. As it is, I can't imagine how this ever becomes anything more than an invest, if that.
Japan Meteorological Agency

East China Sea

At 15:00 PM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Soulik (975 hPa) located at 25.9N 120.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
350 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.6N 116.3E - Tropical Depression Overland central China
1282. nigel20
I'm off to bed...goodnight/morning fellow bloggers!
could we see a atlantic cyclone next week teleconnect to this typhoon today? not out of the realm of possiblilites
1284. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
I'm off to bed...goodnight/morning fellow bloggers!

Good night, Nigel, I'm off to bed myself.
7-10.days
1286. sar2401
Quoting islander101010:
could we see a atlantic cyclone next week teleconnect to this typhoon today? not out of the realm of possiblilites

Teleconnect from a typhoon inland over China to an Atlantic cyclone that doesn't even exist? It's not only out of the realm of possibility it's somewhere out in the Twilight Zone. "Sharknado" has a better chance of being a reality show than that amazingly impossible idea.
Quoting 1283. islander101010:
could we see a atlantic cyclone next week teleconnect to this typhoon today? not out of the realm of possiblilites


Without looking because I'm too lazy, I'm pretty sure Soulik was related primarily to the MJO, which means it has to traverse the rest of the Pacific basin before getting to our longitude.

In other words, no.
Quoting 1271. KoritheMan:


No offense, but water vapor imagery is not a useful predictor for tracking developing low pressure systems. How can a determinant solely for the mid and upper tropospheric be pragmatic in detecting incipient surface systems?


Oh ok thank you :)
That makes sense- so just wondering- at night what should I use to see if there is a developing low?
southern florida to the nw carib. 7-10.days
Quoting 1288. GrandCaymanMed:


Oh ok thank you :)
That makes sense- so just wondering- at night what should I use to see if there is a developing low?


Start by viewing the local marine observations, although this applies during the daytime as well. You'll be able to work out any large scale pressure falls from that. You can use those observations alongside land-based ones to determine if the winds are turning cyclonically; a closed (or nearly closed) wind circulation associated with a given system is indicative that a low pressure area exists at the surface.

As for satellites, the NHC's satellite page has what's called a shortwave infrared loop. It seems to focus more on low cloud lines than other nocturnal satellites do in lieu of visible imagery.

Also, persistent convection can be another sign that a low may be forming, but that by itself is insufficient to make that sort of determination.
talking about jb late friday afternoon. hard to believe he made a comeback after he got on the news screaming nhc was wrong with their forecast for gilbert. must of been embarrassing.
The blob south of Cuba looks quite blobby to me.
Quoting 1290. KoritheMan:


Start by viewing the local marine observations, although this applies during the daytime as well. You'll be able to work out any large scale pressure falls from that. You can use those observations alongside land-based ones to determine if the winds are turning cyclonically; a closed (or nearly closed) wind circulation associated with a given system is indicative that a low pressure area exists at the surface.

As for satellites, the NHC's satellite page has what's called a shortwave infrared loop. It seems to focus more on low cloud lines than other nocturnal satellites do in lieu of visible imagery.

Also, persistent convection can be another sign that a low may be forming, but that by itself is insufficient to make that sort of determination.


Thank you very much!
Quoting 1275. KoritheMan:


But both had more than 48 hours over water. :P

Humberto didnt :p
Quoting 1292. Forsaken:
The blob south of Cuba looks quite blobby to me.


Yes it has been giving me quite a soaking for the last 4 hours
The 1979 Hurricane season featured 27 depressions, of which only 9 developed into Tropical storms. I have always been wondering why most of the 20th century seasons had so many weak depressions, while they are pretty rare in recent years. This obivously can't just be attributed to climatological variability; I am, however, struggling to find an explanation for this. If anyone could comment on that, I'd be really grateful!

Have a nice weekend!
Quoting 1296. fabian171017:
The 1979 Hurricane season featured 27 depressions, of which only 9 developed into Tropical storms. I have always been wondering why most of the 20th century seasons had so many weak depressions, while they are pretty rare in recent years. This obivously can't just be attributed to climatological variability; I am, however, struggling to find an explanation for this. If anyone could comment on that, I'd be really grateful!

Have a nice weekend!


The advent of scatterometry.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ARE
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

maybe number three soon.
I believe there is still plenty of time in July to squeeze out at least one more named storm before August rolls around.
Quoting 1300. lobdelse81:
I believe there is still plenty of time in July to squeeze out at least one more named storm before August rolls around.


Yes, but the real action will probably hold off until then.
1302. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy...
Quoting 1302. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy...
morning largo! long time long see and hurricanes2018 i think today we may get that circle
1304. LargoFl
One wonders how this got past an editor:


Bay Area Fox affiliate KTVU purportedly learned the names of the flight crew of Asiana flight 214, which crashed last Saturday at San Francisco International Airport, killing two. These—”Sum Ting Wong,” “Wi Tu Lo,” “Ho Lee Fuk,” and “Bang Ding Ow”—are not their names. The newscaster’s credulous reading puts it over the top.

Later, they were forced to issue:


Earlier in the newscast we gave some names of pilots involved in the Asiana Airlines crash. These names were not accurate despite an NTSB official in Washington confirming them late this morning. We apologize for the error.

Let me guess the name of the NTSB official was Ya Dis Wite
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ARE
MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LOW
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

need to add number three soon.
1306. LargoFl
Quoting 1303. bigwes6844:
morning largo! long time long see and hurricanes2018 i think today we may get that circle
good morning, yes i think your right..
1307. LargoFl
man its been raining here every day for a month..wedont need anymore..
1308. LargoFl
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..no relief in sight..rain
nice spin in the GOM and two more spin on the east coast
Quoting 1306. LargoFl:
good morning, yes i think your right..
im thinking by 2pmedt we should see a 10% out there
Soulik made landfall on mainland China.

http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/weath er/forecast.html" target="_blank">Link
I am watching all five tropical waves with a spin!!
1315. Matt74
Quoting 1314. hurricanes2018:
I am watching all five tropical waves with a spin!!
The one in the Gulf appears to have the best vorticity but I don't see how it develops with all that dry air.
1316. LargoFl
this keeps up we are back to swampland,the whole state lol...
Quoting 1302. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy...



I'm on my 1st cup. G'morning Largo.
1318. LargoFl
Quoting 1317. PensacolaDoug:



I'm on my 1st cup. G'morning Largo.
good morning ,storms woke me up around 3:30 am,Big Booms lol..grrrrr
1319. centex
I like the western Caribean, bet we start seeing a spin tomorrow.
1320. LargoFl
1321. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-132330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
505 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF LIGHTNING IS
OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE INDOOR IMMEDIATELY.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MYAKKA RIVER REMAINS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY COULD
CAUSE A FURTHER RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE PRONOUNCED FLOODING
ALONG THE RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
ON SUNDAY. DURING MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

MCMICHAEL
1322. barbamz

CNN with metereological explanations. And good morning!


Soulik is leaving Taiwan.
1323. pottery
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I am watching all five tropical waves with a spin!!

Be careful....
you could get Dizzy and fall over.

:):))
1324. WxLogic
Good Morning
Good morning. A few showers are moving thru PR this morning as a weak trough moves across the area.
1326. barbamz
Thousands evacuated as Typhoon Soulik hits China
POSTED: 13 Jul 2013 6:43 PM
China evacuated more than 300,000 people and drafted in thousands of soldiers as a typhoon which brought torrential rain and powerful winds to Taiwan began to batter the mainland on Saturday.

BEIJING: China evacuated more than 300,000 people and drafted in thousands of soldiers as a typhoon which brought torrential rain and powerful winds to Taiwan began to batter the mainland on Saturday.

Typhoon Soulik hit China's southeastern Fujian province at about 4:00pm (0800 GMT) with wind speeds of up to 118 kilometres an hour (73 miles), the National Meteorological Centre said on its website.

The typhoon had slowed since it ripped roofs from homes and uprooted trees in Taiwan, killing one person and injuring at least 30 after it struck the island at 03:00 am Saturday (2000 GMT Friday).

"(It) is currently moving northwest at 20 to 25 kilometres per hour and is expected to enter neighbouring Jiangxi Province after midnight," Xinhua said, citing a local weather station. ..
.
Nice lightening show last night around 11:30. Hope you got to see and enjoy it!


Quoting 1317. PensacolaDoug:



I'm on my 1st cup. G'morning Largo.
Notice anything strange??? We first noticed this "reverse" or "backwards" pattern in the models several days ago and we are now seeing the beginning stages. It seems we are talking about "abnormal" patterns more and more often and this will be no exception. An upper low (yet another one!) is cutting off from the primary flow and will race to the "WEST" through the weekend... finally stalling and dissipating in the NM/TX region. This will be in response to an area of high pressure developing in the NE US and building into the Ohio Valley. So what does this mean?
Unlike the last upper low which hung around for several days and produced slow moving storms with flooding rainfall, this will push quickly West through our area on Saturday. This opens the door for warmer temps and higher humidity levels with each day. Being mid-summer that also means a 'small' but daily pop up storm chance in the afternoon and evening hours.http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/2 21/maps/2013/07/13/00/NAM_221_2013071300_F69_RELV_ 500_MB.png


I think Chantal's old remains spinning of the East Coast look better today than yesterday. You can see the blob spinning quite well on the infrared sat. Still has a chance especially with tht big Bermuda high pushing everything backward lol!
Quoting 1307. LargoFl:
man its been raining here every day for a month..wedont need anymore..


Glad to see the west get the rain, their still in a severe drought conditions.
1331. barbamz
Off topic, sorry, but these are somehow moving news for oldies like me, as I remember the excitement when in former times you would receive (or send) a telegram:

World’s last telegram service set to be silenced in India
EuroNews Video 12/07 14:09 CET
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A NON-TROPICAL LOW TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND THEN
DRIFT NORTHWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1333. pcola57


250-850mb Vorticity..

Link

1334. pottery
Good morning all.

WV images show nothing but dry air over the Trop. Atl.
I'm getting the feeling that this will be ''one of those seasons''.....
New wave is introduced just off West Africa.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM
20N14W TO 10N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM DAKAR SENEGAL DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 16W-
21W.
I don't like the chances of any of the waves or systems in Atlantic currently. It'll be awhile for Dorian, IMO. Anyway, got to work today.
1337. GatorWX
Quoting 1334. pottery:
Good morning all.

WV images show nothing but dry air over the Trop. Atl.
I'm getting the feeling that this will be ''one of those seasons''.....


lol
1338. GatorWX
It's mid-July, need I say more?
1339. GatorWX
I just thought the "one of those seasons" remark was funny because it's something I've been saying. There are a lot of variables playing out this season, especially the mean steering flow that is a bit intimidating. I find it quite worrisome that it seems a persistent blocking ridge has been prominent lately in the nw atlantic towards the us ecoast. We shall see how it all plays out. When we get another big pulse from the MJO, there likely won't be an enormous trough dipping as deep into the GOM and I imagine shear will be much reduced by then across the wcarib. At this point in time, I think a lot of people on here will be impressed.
1340. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:
It's mid-July, need I say more?

Understood.
But please excuse me. I'm suffering from dry-brain down here.

:):))
Morning all thanks for posting great info!
1342. FOREX
Quoting 1310. bigwes6844:
im thinking by 2pmedt we should see a 10% out there


out where???
another deep and digging trough. if your west of it mostly dry. east of it good and wet
Moore Oklahoma


Chantal RGB floater
1347. txjac
Good morning ...thanks for the coffee Largo

Watching all the rain in other areas makes me feel like I'm in timeout ...everyone else getting to play but me
Seeing that High pressure merger along the New England area and the ULL shooting straight west as the High pressure does the same, along with the current blow up near the northern Bahamas would I be crazy to think the mess near the Bahamas is coming to Fl or Ga this eve?
1349. TxLisa
Quoting 1345. indianrivguy:
Moore Oklahoma

. Wow! That is an incredible picture.
sharp digging trough into the gulf my character doesnt expect any development this wk. 7- 10 days things could change to the worse. i expect the pacific typhoon to telliconnect over to the atlantic expect it to be near s florida over to the nw carib. a week or so away from today guarantee alot of speculative hobbiest are thinking the same good luck this season
1353. SLU
lol

This is bizarre by modern day standards

Think we will end up blob watching south of Cuba in the short term.
1356. barbamz

New wave is emerging Westafrica. Wave in the mid of the Atlantic not too impressive at the moment, and, yes, a blob of moisture around Cuba, still from the vigorous Chantal-wave.
Click to enlarge.
Quoting 1345. indianrivguy:
Moore Oklahoma


Wow.... just wow....
228 hours GFS, GOM system
1359. barbamz
Smoke from Canadian Wildfires Observed in Europe

July 12, 2013 — This summer, Canada is experiencing unusually extensive wildfires. This week alone, 341 new forest fires have consumed a total area of 616,000 hectares. The smoke clouds produced by the fires in Canada have now reached Europe. In the EU research project Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC-II), in which researchers from Forschungszentrum Jülich are playing a leading role, an integrated system for data analysis and modelling is used to provide daily forecasts of the global atmospheric concentration of pollutants. Smoke and trace gas emissions can be determined based on satellite data of the Canadian wildfires. The MACC-II model system then calculates how these pollutants are transported and chemically transformed.

More (with map) see link above.
Howdy Folks -

Still not much in the way of rain here, despite the ominous clouds yesterday (and the day before, ...); most of the precip is west of I95, and even more so, west of the Turnpike.



My 2 el-cheapo rain gauges picked up .45" in the last 24 hrs (7-7am). Rain is currently hovering off the coast, a few sprinkles here.



Rainfall definitely falling off since May...


All in all, still a pretty Good Morning!

6:41 am (10:41 GMT)

From Lantana's Bicentennial Park looking north over the Intracoastal Waterway.

Meanwhile, Wunderground's investigative reporter, Dexter J. Higgins, attempts to uncover the dirt on crabs. Film at 11.


Current Conditions
74.4°F / 23.6°C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 72°F / 22°C
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 72°F / 22°C
Wind: SSE at 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.96 in / 1014 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Clouds: Scattered Clouds (SCT) : 2600 ft / 792 m
Mostly Cloudy (BKN) : 16000 ft / 4876 m
Mostly Cloudy (BKN) : 22000 ft / 6705 m
UV: 1 out of 16
Sunrise: 6:35 AM EDT
Sunset: 8:16 PM EDT
Moon Rise: 11:16 AM EDT
Moon Set: 11:32 PM EDT
Moon Phase Waxing Crescent

Now
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to track north across the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters this morning. Some of this activity has already begun to impact the immediate coastal locations along Miami Beach and from Everglades City to Naples along the Gulf Coast. The main concerns will be periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes. Mariners navigating near the coast can anticipate brief periods with reduced visibilities and choppier conditions in and around these heavy showers this morning.
As of: 7:32 am EDT on July 13, 2013 from station KFLLANTA2
Saturday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 86F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 77F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 86F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Looking south from the boat dock area (Intracoastal Waterway).

Have a great day everyone. Headed out to Loxahatchee for a while, check back later.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A 'cool' 71 degrees and the humidity soup thinned very nicely here this morning so I've already been outside and weeded the garden. No rain chance today, though it's back tomorrow at the usual 20%.

I head back down to the panhandle of Florida tomorrow to visit my son before I go back to teaching, so no breakfast tomorrow and spotty after that possibly until I get back on the following Sunday afternoon. I'm taking my daughter-in-law and we're going to play tourist with her a little. Since I never play tourist I'll probably get to see a bit I've never seen myself.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to Largo's coffee: Beignets drowned in powdered sugar, thick slices of Canadian bacon, grits, biscuits and gravy, egg white omelets with peppers, cheese and mushrooms, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, fresh fruit, yogurt and orange juice. Enjoy!
I had a quick look at the Wundermaps app, it's free. My brother has an iPad. Looks pretty good
Today Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Southeast wind 5 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Southeast wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A fellow with whom I went to high school, Alan Heuer, is an artist with a Sante Fe studio. He photographs desert, mountain, and city scenes, then places them together in rough composites that he then interprets in paint. Anyway, he was out and about last month, and shot this beautiful pyrocumulonimbus over the Jaroso Fire in the Pecos Wilderness. I've no doubt that if he uses it in a future piece, it'll be fantastic. But I think it looks pretty good like this, too:

Alan Heuer
Quoting 1360. mikatnight:
Howdy Folks -

Still not much in the way of rain here, despite the ominous clouds yesterday (and the day before, ...); most of the precip is west of I95, and even more so, west of the Turnpike.



My 2 el-cheapo rain gauges picked up .45" in the last 24 hrs (7-7am). Rain is currently hovering off the coast, a few sprinkles here.



Rainfall definitely falling off since May...


All in all, still a pretty Good Morning!

6:41 am (10:41 GMT)

From Lantana's Bicentennial Park looking north over the Intracoastal Waterway.

Meanwhile, Wunderground's investigative reporter, Dexter J. Higgins, attempts to uncover the dirt on crabs. Film at 11.


Current Conditions
74.4F / 23.6C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 72F / 22C
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 72F / 22C
Wind: SSE at 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.96 in / 1014 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Clouds: Scattered Clouds (SCT) : 2600 ft / 792 m
Mostly Cloudy (BKN) : 16000 ft / 4876 m
Mostly Cloudy (BKN) : 22000 ft / 6705 m
UV: 1 out of 16
Sunrise: 6:35 AM EDT
Sunset: 8:16 PM EDT
Moon Rise: 11:16 AM EDT
Moon Set: 11:32 PM EDT
Moon Phase Waxing Crescent

Now
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to track north across the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters this morning. Some of this activity has already begun to impact the immediate coastal locations along Miami Beach and from Everglades City to Naples along the Gulf Coast. The main concerns will be periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes. Mariners navigating near the coast can anticipate brief periods with reduced visibilities and choppier conditions in and around these heavy showers this morning.
As of: 7:32 am EDT on July 13, 2013 from station KFLLANTA2
Saturday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 86F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 77F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 86F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Looking south from the boat dock area (Intracoastal Waterway).

Have a great day everyone. Headed out to Loxahatchee for a while, check back later.


Behind for the year at my location (S. Ft. Myers). But we've had over 10" of rain at my location so far this month.
Rain has backed off this week, but last week was very rainy at my location.
1366. JRRP
1367. Torito
Hey guys! sorry i havent been on for a while, the internet here loves to annoy me for one week then act right for the next one, due to some "invalid ip adress" or something. i think i fixed it, but i'll find out soon. Anyways, This is the smallest area that i have seen the NHC watch in years..... Talking about area number 2 by the way.

1368. Grothar
Quoting 1345. indianrivguy:
Moore Oklahoma



Good Lord!
Quoting 1360. mikatnight:
Howdy Folks -

Still not much in the way of rain here, despite the ominous clouds yesterday (and the day before, ...); most of the precip is west of I95, and even more so, west of the Turnpike.



My 2 el-cheapo rain gauges picked up .45" in the last 24 hrs (7-7am). Rain is currently hovering off the coast, a few sprinkles here.



Rainfall definitely falling off since May...


All in all, still a pretty Good Morning!

6:41 am (10:41 GMT)

From Lantana's Bicentennial Park looking north over the Intracoastal Waterway.

Meanwhile, Wunderground's investigative reporter, Dexter J. Higgins, attempts to uncover the dirt on crabs. Film at 11.


Current Conditions
74.4°F / 23.6°C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 72°F / 22°C
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 72°F / 22°C
Wind: SSE at 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.96 in / 1014 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Clouds: Scattered Clouds (SCT) : 2600 ft / 792 m
Mostly Cloudy (BKN) : 16000 ft / 4876 m
Mostly Cloudy (BKN) : 22000 ft / 6705 m
UV: 1 out of 16
Sunrise: 6:35 AM EDT
Sunset: 8:16 PM EDT
Moon Rise: 11:16 AM EDT
Moon Set: 11:32 PM EDT
Moon Phase Waxing Crescent

Now
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to track north across the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters this morning. Some of this activity has already begun to impact the immediate coastal locations along Miami Beach and from Everglades City to Naples along the Gulf Coast. The main concerns will be periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes. Mariners navigating near the coast can anticipate brief periods with reduced visibilities and choppier conditions in and around these heavy showers this morning.
As of: 7:32 am EDT on July 13, 2013 from station KFLLANTA2
Saturday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 86F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. Low of 77F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.4 in. possible.
Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain. High of 86F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and a chance of rain, then a chance of rain after midnight. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.


Looking south from the boat dock area (Intracoastal Waterway).

Have a great day everyone. Headed out to Loxahatchee for a while, check back later.


We had several inches in the St. Lucie and Kissimmee River watersheds.. this adds up to billions of gallons that will now be forced upon the already dying St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee estuaries... sigh
1370. gator23
DOOM!!! From NWS JAX

GUIDANCE POINTS TO AN EASTERLY
WAVE/TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) MOVING ONSHORE INTO NORTHEAST FL ON MON...
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN NUMEROUS COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...
1371. help4u
Great news,southern sea ice has a shot at all-time record high!#1 most extreme ice in history!
really dont expect much in the way of development across the atlantic for a few weeks as there is large-scale sinking behind MJO wave suppressing the Atlantic Basin. Here are some grahics illustrating this.

Blue shading is "more favorable" conditions, especially after the passage, where orange shadings are "less favorable" conditions for genesis. You can find them here

1374. Torito
TR-Chantal is going to make florida pretty wet today, even if the main part of the storm stays east. We might see some severe weather if this gets any closer.



Good morning. Looks like three areas of interest here, although none with a good chance at developing. Ex-Chantal in the Bahamas, another blob (maybe also part of Chantal?) in the western Caribbean, and the front in the northern GOM. IMO, the GOM feature has the best chance to develop, though it's still unlikely.

nice tropical wave emerging Westafrica
1377. 62901IL
Quoting 1374. Torito:
TR-Chantal is going to make florida pretty wet today, even if the main part of the storm stays east. We might see some severe weather if this gets any closer.




R U READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER???????????????
Quoting 1345. indianrivguy:
Moore Oklahoma



Whoa, when was that?
number 1 tool for any cyclone hobbiest a good tracking map. computer screens are just too small
1380. Grothar
Quoting 1361. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A 'cool' 71 degrees and the humidity soup thinned very nicely here this morning so I've already been outside and weeded the garden. No rain chance today, though it's back tomorrow at the usual 20%.

I head back down to the panhandle of Florida tomorrow to visit my son before I go back to teaching, so no breakfast tomorrow and spotty after that possibly until I get back on the following Sunday afternoon. I'm taking my daughter-in-law and we're going to play tourist with her a little. Since I never play tourist I'll probably get to see a bit I've never seen myself.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to Largo's coffee: Beignets drowned in powdered sugar, thick slices of Canadian bacon, grits, biscuits and gravy, egg white omelets with peppers, cheese and mushrooms, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, fresh fruit, yogurt and orange juice. Enjoy!


That small little egg white omelet was good. (And no, I did not take the missing biscuits and gravy!!! It must have been someone else)

I don't know why the NHC didn't mention the blob south of Cuba.

1381. zampaz
Quoting 1371. help4u:
Great news,southern sea ice has a shot at all-time record high!#1 most extreme ice in history!

Really?
Fascinating!
Let's discuss it on Dr. Rood's blog.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/commen t.html?entrynum=270#commenttop
Quoting 1378. CybrTeddy:


Whoa, when was that?


Yeah.
Doesn't look like Moore Oklahoma to me. I could be wrong. I lived in Moore Oklahoma and graduated from Moore High School.
It looks like the photo was taken from a hill over looking the city. I don't know of any such location. It's very flat in that area.

But like I said, I could be wrong. Just doesn't look like Moore Oklahoma.
1383. Grothar
Quoting 1375. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Looks like three areas of interest here, although none with a good chance at developing. Ex-Chantal in the Bahamas, another blob (maybe also part of Chantal?) in the western Caribbean, and the front in the northern GOM. IMO, the GOM feature has the best chance to develop, though it's still unlikely.




That Caribbean one looks really blobby, doesn't it.


Quoting 1378. CybrTeddy:


Whoa, when was that?


Teddy. I am not sure, as I pulled it from Facebook. At first glance, I though it was the tornado train we saw in Norman.. but I really don't know.
1385. zampaz
Quoting 1361. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A 'cool' 71 degrees and the humidity soup thinned very nicely here this morning so I've already been outside and weeded the garden. No rain chance today, though it's back tomorrow at the usual 20%.

I head back down to the panhandle of Florida tomorrow to visit my son before I go back to teaching, so no breakfast tomorrow and spotty after that possibly until I get back on the following Sunday afternoon. I'm taking my daughter-in-law and we're going to play tourist with her a little. Since I never play tourist I'll probably get to see a bit I've never seen myself.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to Largo's coffee: Beignets drowned in powdered sugar, thick slices of Canadian bacon, grits, biscuits and gravy, egg white omelets with peppers, cheese and mushrooms, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, fresh fruit, yogurt and orange juice. Enjoy!

Thank you for Breakfast! Delicious as always.
It's the thought that counts :) and is much appreciated that you feed so many with your warm wishes for full tummies.
Quoting 1384. indianrivguy:


Teddy. I am not sure, as I pulled it from Facebook. At first glance, I though it was the tornado train we saw in Norman.. but I really don't know.


Awesome photo no matter where it's from.
1387. zampaz
Quoting 1380. Grothar:


That small little egg white omelet was good. (And no, I did not take the missing biscuits and gravy!!! It must have been someone else)

I don't know why the NHC didn't mention the blob south of Cuba.


err yeah errr it was me...that's right I did it and uhhh and then my cat ate them...yeah that's it.
(Gotcha covered Gro).
Ummm I hesitate to ask but can anyone else see wunderyukuza's blog this morning?
I really didn't take his biscuits and gravy, I'm sure...I think, let me ask Star (my cat).
Quoting 1383. Grothar:



That Caribbean one looks really blobby, doesn't it.



I probably shouldn't have called it a blob without your permission, especially if you haven't declared a blob alert yet. But yes, it does :)
1389. 62901IL
What's going on? The blog is really slow.
Good Morning Friends. Had to scrub the fishing plans near the Florida Big Bend today as you can see from the loops and that frontal mess settled in the Gulf on the North Florida coast.

As you can see from the 200mb chart below, that area South of Cuba is right on the edge of that Tutt Cell; just baroclinic activity being enhanced by the proximity of the Tutt. Just a big unorganized mess.

Link
1391. zampaz
Quoting 1380. Grothar:


That small little egg white omelet was good. (And no, I did not take the missing biscuits and gravy!!! It must have been someone else)

I don't know why the NHC didn't mention the blob south of Cuba.


They were waiting for you Gro.
The blob ain't the blob 'til the Gro crows as the saying goes.
1392. 62901IL
Has anyone eaten crow yet?
1393. zampaz
Quoting 1389. 62901IL:
What's going on? The blog is really slow.

We were waiting for you!
Quoting 1383. Grothar:



That Caribbean one looks really blobby, doesn't it.




I heard that soon we may be able to buy Grothar brand Blob Repellent.

Please put me on the list.

(no, not THAT list : )
Good morning Everyone! Another absolutely splendid day from the woods this morning. Nothing but deep blue skies with highs in the mid 80's. Okay well there's a thin cirrus cloud streak a few miles to my west by I am not going to even begin to complain about that. :)

Everyone have a wonderful weekend and I know you all will be keeping a watchful eye on the tropics! :-)

Natalie


until the Gro crows.... :)
1397. zampaz
Quoting 1395. SouthernIllinois:
Good morning Everyone! Another absolutely splendid day from the woods this morning. Nothing but deep blue skies with highs in the mid 80's. Okay well there's a thin cirrus cloud streak a few miles to my west by I am not going to even begin to complain about that. :)

Everyone have a wonderful weekend and I know you all will be keeping a watchful eye on the tropics! :-)

Natalie



Morning Nat! Breakfast at post 1361 I think.
1398. Patrap
Quoting 1397. zampaz:

Morning Nat! Breakfast at post 1361 I think.

OMG. You're TOTALLY right!!! Thank you Sean. And thanks Ains. Going hiking and then to the park later for softball and SAND volleyball so I'll need the protein to fill me up! :) Digging in to those Beignets drowned in powdered sugar and some bacon if there's even still some left! :/

Thanks again.

Nat
As a matter of fact, the entire area from the Florida Gulf and up the Eastern Seaboard is being enhanced by that deep Tutt cell that is draped from Maryland all the way down to La.

That 10% area of ex-Chantal's remnants is sandwiched between two pockets of sheer on either side; it does not have much breathing room to develop.

Link
It's been flat calm all week in the Keys but it's blowin' a solid 20 out of the South today. There'll be a lot of chumming' goin' on at the Underwater Music Festival this morning.







You can listen live at US 1 Radio.

Link

At least we don't have Chantal here today.
1402. Patrap
One abbreviates Louisiana, with La., not LA.

Dats a city in Cali.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1392. 62901IL:
Has anyone eaten crow yet?


yes.. it was awful.. Dad had a rule.. you shoot it, you eat it. I got caught killing a crow with my BB gun. Dad, and Uncle Don pulled up lawn chairs and watched as I built a fire, plucked the feathers, dressed it, and cooked it.. Lesson learned. That was the last time I EVER shot anything I wasn't going to eat.
Good morning everybody. It's a cold 61 degrees where I live right now......I see we have 2 areas of concern in the Atlantic. That little blob south of Cuba I believe is part that broke off of Ex Chatal.
1406. beell
Quoting 1382. Sfloridacat5:


Yeah.
Doesn't look like Moore Oklahoma to me. I could be wrong. I lived in Moore Oklahoma and graduated from Moore High School.
It looks like the photo was taken from a hill over looking the city. I don't know of any such location. It's very flat in that area.

But like I said, I could be wrong. Just doesn't look like Moore Oklahoma.


Well familiar with the area. I agree, does not look like Moore.
What does all this moisture mean in the SE Caribbean?

Quoting 1387. zampaz:

err yeah errr it was me...that's right I did it and uhhh and then my cat ate them...yeah that's it.
(Gotcha covered Gro).
Ummm I hesitate to ask but can anyone else see wunderyukuza's blog this morning?
I really didn't take his biscuits and gravy, I'm sure...I think, let me ask Star (my cat).


I can see it
1410. Patrap
1411. Patrap
If it wasn't fer da Low clouds I could almost make out the red L in the Sky.

Quoting 1410. Patrap:


You are on the old blog pat.
1413. Patrap
Im so old..
1414. Patrap
1415. centex
Quoting 1413. Patrap:
Im so old..
Got banned info for questioning chrome, I'm too old for this kind of reaction. I guess kids do not understand us.
Grothar, is it still raining at your location , any flooding?
1417. Grothar
Quoting 1416. FIUStormChaser:
Grothar, is it still raining at your location , any flooding?


Yes, it is still raining, but not as heavily. Very bad flooding all around.
1418. centex
Shear looks ok in western carb and odd retrograde ULL also shown. Texas will be open in a few days just need something to develop.
Quoting 1417. Grothar:


Yes, it is still raining, but not as heavily. Very bad flooding all around.


Gro, you could always go and get your friend Noah's boat out.

Why is there a discussion going on the old blog anyways?

Edit: Not the young kids faults Centex.
George Zimmerman Not Guilty of all charges.

Self Defense still means something, thank God.
1421. Grothar
Quoting 1419. Astrometeor:


Gro, you could always go and get your friend Noah's boat out.

Why is there a discussion going on the old blog anyways?

Edit: Not the young kids faults Centex.


It is funny, but my screen has jumped back to the old blog twice already. I don't know why.
1422. Grothar
Quoting 1416. FIUStormChaser:
Grothar, is it still raining at your location , any flooding?


Clear, not a drop of rain. But we got a bunch yesterday. I swear our bamboo grew two feet since yesterday.
Quoting 1421. Grothar:


It is funny, but my screen has jumped back to the old blog twice already. I don't know why.


I keep refreshing trying to figure out why people's comments aren't appearing. Then I check here.
Test comment.
comment test