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Chantal Barely Alive, Bringing Heavy Rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:24 PM GMT on July 10, 2013

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft criss-crossing Tropical Storm Chantal this morning was barely able to find a closed circulation, and measured top winds of 45 mph at 10:10 am EDT in a region of heavy thunderstorms just south of the Central Dominican Republic coast. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, combined with dry air and the storm's exceptionally fast forward movement of 25 - 30 mph have seriously weakened Chantal, even before it has encountered the high mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. Visible satellite loops show that Chantal has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that are affecting Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Chantal's rains are a serious threat for Haiti, where deforestation of the nation's mountainous hillsides has left the nation highly vulnerable to flooding. In mid-June, heavy rains in Haiti triggered flash floods that killed at least six people and impacted 7,000 families. In October 2012, flooding from Hurricane Sandy killed 60 people and damaged or destroyed more than 18,000 homes. Drought conditions this year over the nation have left the soil hard and impervious, increasing the risk of rapid run-off from heavy rains. Approximately 320,000 people live in makeshift tent shelters in Haiti, three years after the devastating January 2010 earthquake that killed 220,000 people.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Chantal.

Forecast for Chantal
The 8 am EDT Wednesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to remain in the high range, 20 - 35 knots, into Thursday. This high shear, combined with Chantal's expected passage over the high mountains of Cuba and the continued presence of dry air, will likely destroy the storm by Friday. Wind shear will likely fall to the moderate range once Chantal moves north of Cuba, so there will be the possibility of regeneration in the waters off the coast of Florida if Chantal does dissipate.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable forecast models are predicting formation of a tropical cyclone for the coming seven days.


Figure 2. Departure of precipitation from average for the past two weeks over the Southeast U.S. shows many areas have received over 400% of their normal precipitation. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. Soil moisture over the U.S. on July 8, 2013, ranked as a percentage of the greatest moisture levels on record for the date. Large areas of the Southeast U.S. are near the wettest levels ever observed, above the 99th percentile in soil moisture. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Southeast U.S. vulnerable to flooding
If Chantal or its remnants brings heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. early next week, as some of the current track models are predicting, the storm could cause major damaging flooding. The soils in the Southeast are saturated and many rivers are already in flood, due to last week's extreme jet stream pattern that set up a fire hose of tropical moisture that streamed inland from the Florida Panhandle through Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Soils over large areas of the Southeast U.S. are near the wettest levels ever observed for this time of year--above the 99th percentile in recorded history. It's remarkable that most of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina were in moderate or greater drought at the beginning of the year. Portions of Central Georgia were in exceptional drought--the most extreme category of drought.


Figure 4. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 02:10 UTC July 10, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Typhoon Soulik, a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in the Western Pacific. Soulik has weakened slightly from its peak winds of 145 mph earlier today, but is expected to maintain Category 4 strength into Thursday, then weaken to Category 3 strength under the influence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, before hitting the northern end of Taiwan on Friday. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 1 typhoon. Soulik is the third Category 4 storm globally so far in 2013 (joining January's Tropical Cyclone Narelle and Tropical Cyclone Felleng in the Southern Indian Ocean.) Earth has not yet seen any Category 5 storms in 2013.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1997. moonlightcowboy:

Really cool find. Add to your links. :)
CONUS SFC WINDS
It's an animated wind map derived from surface wind data that comes from the National Digital Forecast Database. These are near-term forecasts, revised once per hour. So what you're seeing is a living portrait. (See the NDFD site for precise details; our timestamp shows time of download.




And, if you click on the map it will zoom in, click again and again. After your first click to zoom, an unzoom button will appear on the upper left hand side of the page.
2002. VR46L
Just a driveby ...

Sorry Not seeing her regenerating at the moment on this loop she appears to be dissipating


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

back to lurking
Quoting 7544:


You mean like this one?


Link
or this one?

Link
If things couldn't get any worse for China.... Now dealing with Dozens buried alive in China after a landslide (Sichuan province). Heavy rain destroys homes.


soon they'll have to deal with this....

The water vapor loop says it all. The ULL is shearing off the cloud tops from the remnants of Chantal. Like I said had she tracked over DR instead she would have had a better chance of redeveloping as she would have been farther away from this ULL. The 00z run of the GFS on the 9th would have probably also came to fruition.





00z GFS 7/9/13
2006. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



And, if you click on the map it will zoom in, click again and again. After your first click to zoom, an unzoom button will appear on the upper left hand side of the page.

The map does not work with IE8. It states you have to "upgrade to Chrome". I think I'll pass on that.
Quoting 2003. AussieStorm:


You mean like this one?


Link
or this one?

Link

That's going to be huge compared to most tropical waves. I'm looking forward to it this weekend! ;-)
2008. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
The water vapor loop says it all. The ULL is shearing off the cloud tops from the remnants of Chantal. Like I said had she tracked over DR instead she would have had a better chance of redeveloping as she would have been farther away from this ULL. The 00z run of the GFS on the 9th would have probably also came to fruition.





00z GFS 7/9/13

There's convection all over central America and Mexico that looks at least as good as the remnants of Chantal.
Quoting 2004. AussieStorm:
If things couldn't get any worse for China.... Now dealing with Dozens buried alive in China after a landslide (Sichuan province). Heavy rain destroys homes.


soon they'll have to deal with this....

Too much disasters going on in that part of the world lately they really need a break from it.
Quoting 2008. sar2401:

There's convection all over central America and Mexico that looks at least as good as the remnants of Chantal.
Sar if you are still up what do you think was the real reason for Chantal's demise and why do you think she tracked as far west as she did, was it the steering from the Bermuda High or was it the steering from the Caribbean zonal flow or the CLLJ? Do you think the mountains over Haiti is also having something to do with it?
2011. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
That's one impressive blow up of convection, looks to be the most dominant remainder of Chantal, and with some spin associated with it; could this be where the next possible surface circulation forms? Energy has been shifting North for hours now. Could she spin up quickly with the low shear and good SST's in the Bahamas? Amazing how she looks now compared to last night.

The convection is shifting away from whatever low level circulation still remains from ex-Chantal. At this point, it's just convection that's being influenced by iteraction with land. The westerly winds are still blowing hard as well, so the chance of this reforming are, as the NHC said, not very good for at least the next 24 hours. I'd put the chances closer to zero.
This blog is DEAD...
2013. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sar if you are still up what do you think was the real reason for Chantal's demise and why do you think she tracked as far west as she did, was it the steering from the Bermuda High or was it the steering from the Caribbean zonal flow or the CLLJ? Do you think the mountains over Haiti is also having something to do with it?

I wish I had all those answers. As far as the westward movement, that's very typical with weak, low latitude storms. They usually get caught up in the Caribbean westerlies. The problem was both the NHC and the models were fixated on her moving north, and that wasn't going to happen with a storm of such a small size and high pressure. I think the mountains of Hispanola caused most of the convection earlier today, and the outflow of the collapsing storms opened up the center. The same thing is going to happen with the convection that's moving north over the Bahamas now, as they leave what remains of ex-Chantal's circulation behind. Some folks get excited about convection occuring because there happened to be a TS there earlier today. Nighttime convection is always common in the Caribbean, as can be seen all over the basin right now. I don't think it means a darn thing for regeneration.
2014. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:
This blog is DEAD...

Then you should go to bed and not waste your time here.
Sar, that convection has been near the Turks and Caicos for nearly 12hrs now. It's not simply night time convection. Still may amount to nothing, but if she is to regenerate, that would be my bet as to where she does it.
2016. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
The water vapor loop says it all. The ULL is shearing off the cloud tops from the remnants of Chantal. Like I said had she tracked over DR instead she would have had a better chance of redeveloping as she would have been farther away from this ULL. The 00z run of the GFS on the 9th would have probably also came to fruition.





00z GFS 7/9/13

The GFS is nuts. We're not going to get a low moving up from the south, hang a right over the Bahamas, hang a left over Florida, get out in the Gulf, disappear, than have a second low come rocketing up, go into the Gulf, and hit Texas as 976 mb hurricane. Something is wrong with the convective feedback of the GF lately.
2017. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sar, that convection has been near the Turks and Caicos for nearly 12hrs now. It's not simply night time convection. Still may amount to nothing, but if she is to regenerate, that would be my bet as to where she does it.

12 hours? At 3:00 pm CDT, almost all the convection was south of and over Hispanola. The convection I'm see developed over the Turks at about 11:00 pm CDT. Although some of the energy is cleary from the remnants of Chantal, a lot of it is being supported by the usual DMAX convection over the Turks and the Bahamas that's common this time of year.
2018. smuldy
Quoting 2016. sar2401:

The GFS is nuts. We're not going to get a low moving up from the south, hang a right over the Bahamas, hang a left over Florida, get out in the Gulf, disappear, than have a second low come rocketing up, go into the Gulf, and hit Texas as 976 mb hurricane. Something is wrong with the convective feedback of the GF lately.
It probably is but remember TD5 2010? Crazy things can happen sometimes with systems that retain energy but never peak out with their potential.
You can view close to 7 hrs of it here. Waxed and waned a little...But there none the less. I was watching it at 7 EST before I came to work.

19N 73W... Appears to be either a LLC or MLC moving NW into the Windward Passage. So hard to tell without daytime images though. From enhanced Shortwave IR2, almost appears to be some light shower activity developing on its north and south sides over the waters and coastline of northern Haiti and Ile de la Gonave. Anyone see this?
2022. zampaz
Quoting 2006. sar2401:

The map does not work with IE8. It states you have to "upgrade to Chrome". I think I'll pass on that.

The maps work in Firefox too Sar, if that would help.
Edit
Said Aussie but meant Sar...(face palm self)
that was some drama on here earlier! Wow i just got off and saw that. Hopefully the night stays troll free
SAL starting to lighten up now. Next wave off Africa should be SAL free
2025. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:
You can view close to 7 hrs of it here. Waxed and waned a little...But there none the less. I was watching it at 7 EST before I came to work.


I see the blowup of convection over the Turks starting at 0331 UTC. It's now 0815 UTC. In terms of concentrated convection, that's about 5 hours. What I see earlier is some blowoff from the stronger convection off Hispaniola.
Quoting 2024. bigwes6844:
SAL starting to lighten up now. Next wave off Africa should be SAL free

AND....Future Dorian may take a similar path to Chantal. Where it will go as far as East coast or GOM is the question. Too far out right now...we will see.
Quoting 2027. Stormchaser121:

AND....Future Dorian may take a similar path to Chantal. Where it will go as far as East coast or GOM is the question. Too far out right now...we will see.
Yeah i believe we should get our next invest in three days once that wave is completely off Africa and get the models running for Dorian. Somebody on here said a long time ago that Dorian was gonna be a bad storm. Lets see what happens
2029. zampaz
Quoting 2026. bigwes6844:

Hope Taiwan does okay. Who can do well in a hurricane?
I was looking at terrain of mainland. Very hilly terrain it appears, which makes flooding even worse, and with what Aussie posted earlier (#2004) apparently flooding is already an issue in the region.
2030. smuldy
Quoting 2028. bigwes6844:
Yeah i believe we should get our next invest in three days once that wave is completely off Africa and get the models running for Dorian. Somebody on here said a long time ago that Dorian was gonna be a bad storm. Lets see what happens
Trade winds still too strong despite SAL. Takes time. These waves moisten SAL then when trade winds diminish and late summer zonal sheer patterns set in as AB high lifts north of Caribbean towards Bermuda, then storms form. Could see some isolated strong storms this month but more likely from cutoff lows than from CV emergence. The 'home brews'. Late July & August through October are different story. TCHP + tropical wave alone isn't enough. But this many waves emerging in June & July, then feeding moisture to SAL, is a bad sign for ROS. Right now though home-growns are still greatest threats. Why it is important to watch what happens w/former Chantal energy. Two weeks ish again different story.
I currently see two circulation one at 17.1N 73.2W the other at 19.0N 73.8W

first one is stationary secondary was moving WNW-NW but last few satellite images shows W-WNW
Quoting 2028. bigwes6844:
Yeah i believe we should get our next invest in three days once that wave is completely off Africa and get the models running for Dorian. Somebody on here said a long time ago that Dorian was gonna be a bad storm. Lets see what happens

Would be ironic because Dean in 2007 was a bad one. I wonder if Fernand will be a bad one like Felix. I'm sure they will have different tracks than Dean and Felix but...you get my point. Now i said Chantal would hit Freeport so gimmie my crow fried. BUT...I do predict one for TX this season. Havent seen one in...almost 5 years now.
Quoting 2033. Stormchaser121:

Would be ironic because Dean in 2007 was a bad one. I wonder if Fernand will be a bad one like Felix. I'm sure they will have different tracks than Dean and Felix but...you get my point. Now i said Chantal would hit Freeport so gimmie my crow fried. BUT...I do predict one for TX this season. Havent seen one in...almost 5 years now.
and mark my words dorian will amount to much within 7 days
Oz.. good to see you again..again :)

Good morning everyone, good evening Aussie

Weatherfanatics... sooo, is this a gut feeling.. how exactly do you arrive at this conclusion on your third post with us?
Quoting 2035. indianrivguy:
Oz.. good to see you again..again :)

Good morning everyone, good evening Aussie

Weatherfanatics... sooo, is this a gut feeling.. how exactly do you arrive at this conclusion on your third post with us?


Good Morning All,

It is very nice to be able to pop in here in the morning again and speak to you folks.

After my briefing in here, it will be time for my Spanish lessons.

It is part of my efforts to assimilate myself into the culture in Ecuador. Understanding and speaking Spanish will also make it easier for me to communicate with the girlfriends I am juggling up here in the Andes Mountains.

I am very glad that so many of you like my daily updates when there is a tropical cyclone out there in Hurricane Alley. I have been doing these long loop animations for some years now, and surprisingly, the interface to obtain the images is still not user friendly. It takes a great deal of time and effort to make these videos.

Since I now live in the Southern Hemisphere beneath the ITCZ, my storm chasing days are over. Making these videos is now the only contribution I can make towards efforts to understand these incredible natural engines. Of course, it would be impossible without the imagery provided by NASA and NOAA to the general public...so a big thank you to them.

When we get another tropical cyclone, the daily updates will begin again...immediately.

G'mornin guys.
Mornin' Doug!
Quoting 2037. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin guys.


Doug! If I were still there, it would be time for me to come over with some KKs! :)
Quoting 2039. CycloneOz:


Doug! If I were still there, it would be time for me to come over with some KKs! :)





SHO NUFF!
if dorian even develops it will have alot of trouble in its jourey across the atl. with alot of shear and dry air still in place and should remain there for weeks to come. remember last year .... i see a carbon copy setting up
2042. LargoFl
Good Morning folks!..Blogs coffee is perked..have a great day..........................................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE MYAKKA RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE
PRONOUNCED FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER.
2043. LargoFl
amazing how much rain we have been getting huh.....
2044. LargoFl
Quoting 2030. smuldy:
Trade winds still too strong despite SAL. Takes time. These waves moisten SAL then when trade winds diminish and late summer zonal sheer patterns set in as AB high lifts north of Caribbean towards Bermuda, then storms form. Could see some isolated strong storms this month but more likely from cutoff lows than from CV emergence. The 'home brews'. Late July & August through October are different story. TCHP + tropical wave alone isn't enough. But this many waves emerging in June & July, then feeding moisture to SAL, is a bad sign for ROS. Right now though home-growns are still greatest threats. Why it is important to watch what happens w/former Chantal energy. Two weeks ish again different story.
Gotta hand it to u on dat u hit everything on the nail because in two weeks or three we are gonna see some things we haven't seem in years. I hope everyone is ready . fasten those seat belts everyone its gonna be a bumpy and crazy ride from august to October with this set up almost done
2046. zampaz
Hi indianriverguy!
Just to let the blog know it's still updating properly...
Some of my favorite links from Patrap and others on the site:
Water Vapor Loop. Don't know what it means but I like the colors... :)
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi ?wv_east_common+/24h/

GOES 13, from MLC...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir .html

From Patrap:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
PSU e-Wall: Models, sat images, tutorial...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

I really wish I had something of merit to add to the blog as far as insight or predictions go, but I'm too new and ignorant to add much of value. I still see every satellite gyre or atmospheric low as a potential hurricane. My conjectures at this point are not well informed...but I make them to myself, and then I watch what happens...
I find it humorous and a bit sad that folks bash model inaccuracies...it wasn't too long ago we were using sticks of bamboo called slide rules to do calculations with (I still have one). Now we deal with volumes of data (gigabytes) that would if put in 64 byte punched card format be weighed in kilotons.
Quoting 2033. Stormchaser121:

Would be ironic because Dean in 2007 was a bad one. I wonder if Fernand will be a bad one like Felix. I'm sure they will have different tracks than Dean and Felix but...you get my point. Now i said Chantal would hit Freeport so gimmie my crow fried. BUT...I do predict one for TX this season. Havent seen one in...almost 5 years now.
Another thing I like to point out is the CFS forecasting was pretty much good back in june in predicting we would see chantal in july and i think it had future dorian on it too. So to see that much activity on the CFS next month may not be LA LA Land after all
Quoting 2043. LargoFl:
amazing how much rain we have been getting huh.....


Here are a couple of links that might interest you.

Eco-voice Digest

Go Hydrology Rain

Mornin' Zampaz!
Quoting 2045. bigwes6844:
Gotta hand it to u on dat u hit everything on the nail because in two weeks or three we are gonna see some things we haven't seem in years. I hope everyone is ready . fasten those seat belts everyone its gonna be a bumpy and crazy ride from august to October with this set up almost done
stop already
here we again more hot weather for the northeast again because of the high back up again! WHAT UP WITH THIS HIGH THIS YEAR.
Quoting 2050. hurricanes2018:
here we again more hot weather for the northeast again because of the high back up again! WHAT UP WITH THIS HIGH THIS YEAR.
th high is gonna prohibit storms and recurve alot of them again this year
2052. zampaz
Quoting 2048. indianrivguy:


Here are a couple of links that might interest you.

Eco-voice Digest

Go Hydrology Rain

Mornin' Zampaz!

Morning!
Appreciate your perspectives on your site.
Reminds me of the "Tao Te Ching" translation by Gia Fu Feng and Jane English.
Sorry blog, I digress :)
Quoting 2051. WEATHERFANATIC5:
th high is gonna prohibit storms and recurve alot of them again this year


Actually, the exact opposite of what you said.

nice spin here
2055. hu2007
i think that chantal will regenerate close to the bahamas and hit florida as a tropical depresion o a storm much like did katrina the diference is that it may not hit lousiana but may hit florida and lastly texas as a weak hurricane let see what chantal will do next. never overestimated a dead system
JUST like I said nothing in the Caribbean....
THE NHC is handcuffed their self they stink.....
Watching models listening to predictions from computers and ignoring the simple!


Go back and read my post that have been ignored and see if it helps in the future. GOD Bless!
Quoting 2055. hu2007:
i think that chantal will regenerate close to the bahamas and hit florida as a tropical depresion o a storm much like did katrina the diference is that it may not hit lousiana but may hit florida and lastly texas as a weak hurricane let see what chantal will do next. never overestimated a dead system
still got a nice spin to it
AL 03 2013071106 BEST 0 196N 744W 30 1013 WV


Experimental higher resolution GFS


2059. pcola57
Good Morning IRG,Zampaz,Savannah,hurricaines2018 and All..
Chantal has exited stage NW..
My prediction was a Friday demise but she never slowed down much so..
We shall see the last act from her soon..
IRG did you get any rain from that ULL?
That Eco-Digest link is one I will explore further..
Hydrology doesn't take my part of Florida into account.. :(

79 degrees here with 78%rh and dew at 72..
Winds from the SW at 7..
Thunder in the distance..
Cloudy again..
As has been the case for 4 days now..
I bet August will be extra hot..

Beach looks dreary once again..


only 62 likes for dr masters nice little blog. is that all the characters that use this? whats left seems to be just off the west coast of hispanola.
its still showing a very good spin!!
OMG not again guys are you serious its too early in da darn morning for this!!!!!!!
just wait for sept there be alot of fishes
Quoting 2059. pcola57:
Good Morning IRG,Zampaz,Savannah,hurricaines2018 and All..
Chantal has exited stage NW..
My prediction was a Friday demise but she never slowed down much so..
We shall see the last act from her soon..
IRG did you get any rain from that ULL?
That Eco-Digest link is one I will explore further..
Hydrology doesn't take my part of Florida into account.. :(

79 degrees here with 78%rh and dew at 72..
Winds from the SW at 7..
Thunder in the distance..
Cloudy again..
As has been the case for 4 days now..
I bet August will be extra hot..

Beach looks dreary once again..





Good morning Marvin! The ULL fell apart, we didn't have any extraordinary rain. The west coast has been pounded, and the Kissimmee watershed is unloading into Okeechobee Lake.. bad news for the Caloosahatchee, and St. Lucie.
Morning all.
Quoting 2005. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The water vapor loop says it all. The ULL is shearing off the cloud tops from the remnants of Chantal. Like I said had she tracked over DR instead she would have had a better chance of redeveloping as she would have been farther away from this ULL. The 00z run of the GFS on the 9th would have probably also came to fruition.





00z GFS 7/9/13
Wow. That ULL has gotten really swollen overnight... but that does explain the clouds racing Nward at my location when I went out earlier this morning....

At this point I can see why Avila's language was so dismissive yesterday. If they were looking at that ULL and seeing this in their short-term forecast, they would have had no choice.

BTW, that's the second Twave in a week that ULL's stripped like that....
2067. pcola57
That's one big area of dry SAL air in the Leewards today..

Miami NWS Disco

...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL TO PASS OFF TO OUR EAST WITH A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, EXCEPT NUMEROUS INTERIOR-
EAST COAST FRI-SAT AFTERNOON

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED, BUT TYPICAL LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3"+ POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE HEAVIEST TSTORMS

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LIES NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS
AND IS MOVING N-NW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDEED SHOWS THAT THE VORT/BULK
OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REMNANT SYSTEM WILL PASS OUR
AREA TO THE EAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. MOS GUIDANCE POPS AND QPF ARE
NOT BULLISH...AND SREF PROBS OF HIGHER QPF ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS.
SO WE HAVE RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING THAT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT OCCUR. WPC INDEED LOWERED THEIR QPF TO AN
AREAL AVG OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD TODAY-SAT. THAT BEING
SAID, IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
2069. pcola57
Quoting 2065. indianrivguy:


Good morning Marvin! The ULL fell apart, we didn't have any extraordinary rain. The west coast has been pounded, and the Kissimmee watershed is unloading into Okeechobee Lake.. bad news for the Caloosahatchee, and St. Lucie.


Marty I never understood why they put that watershed there in the first place..
Was it to be able to build more and more and more??
Can they screw it up any worse now?
Quoting 2067. pcola57:
That's one big area of dry SAL air in the Leewards today..



Sal has gone down for the most part in MDR compared to the past couple of weeks.
2071. pcola57
Quoting 2070. Tropicsweatherpr:


Sal has gone down for the most part in MDR compared to the past couple of weeks.


Yeah TR..
It's all about location,location,location now..
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for New Haven County, CT

until 8:00 AM EDT, Thu., Jul 11, 2013
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Thu, Jul 11, 2013, 7:12 AM EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

* AT 708 AM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILTON... OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORWALK... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for New Haven County, CT

until 8:00 AM EDT, Thu., Jul 11, 2013
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Thu, Jul 11, 2013, 7:12 AM EDT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

* AT 708 AM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILTON... OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORWALK... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM
Quoting 2069. pcola57:


Marty I never understood why they put that watershed there in the first place..
Was it to be able to build more and more and more??
Can they screw it up any worse now?
Before men started trying to "drain the swamp", the Kissimmee watershed drained into Lake O, which overflowed into the Everglades and then into the gulf and ocean. No problem! But you can't grow sugarcane in places that flood frequently, so the artificial drainage links to the Caloosahatchee and the St Lucie were created. Problems!

You may know all of this, but it makes me angry whenever I think about it.
2075. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Chantal's remnants 850 - 700MB VORT steadily moving WNW to NW now across NE Cuba:

850MB:



700MB:



2076. pcola57
Quoting 2074. FLwolverine:
Before men started trying to "drain the swamp", the Kissimmee watershed drained into Lake O, which overflowed into the Everglades and then into the gulf and ocean. No problem! But you can't grow sugarcane in places that flood frequently, so the artificial drainage links to the Caloosahatchee and the St Lucie were created. Problems!

You may know all of this, but it makes me angry whenever I think about it.


I knew about the GREED factor is all FLwolverine..
Up here in my part of Florida it's the same except not an agriculture excuse..
It's a land grab by universities and county gov and tourisum geeks..
Everyone wants on the waters edge..
They are so obviously corrupt..
It's still the "good 'ol boy" system with a little bit of adecademic greed thrown in..
P..ss me off..
Young folks don't have a decent chance here..


Also If you don't have a boat you are hard put to find a public place to fish..
And when you do find a place it's full of people and what a mess..
End of rant..
good morning, liking the look of the remnant low instead of the 990 mb at my door...gotta go!
2078. GatorWX
Quoting 2066. BahaHurican:
Morning all.
Wow. That ULL has gotten really swollen overnight... but that does explain the clouds racing Nward at my location when I went out earlier this morning....

At this point I can see why Avila's language was so dismissive yesterday. If they were looking at that ULL and seeing this in their short-term forecast, they would have had no choice.

BTW, that's the second Twave in a week that ULL's stripped like that....


And I see another dropping down in the Atlantic. Hmmmm......
can i borrow sum troll can spray anyone?
nice tropical wave a 30 west
Still 20%. Circle is around the northern mess.
Good Morning. The 00Z CMC run takes the remnants of Chantal into the Carolinas as a tropical low.

Link

Not so sure about that given the pretty moderate to strong sheer between the remnants and the Carolinas at the moment:

Link

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION AT THIS TIME AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS...ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
Quoting 2076. pcola57:


I knew about the GREED factor is all FLwolverine..
Up here in my part of Florida it's the same except not an agriculture excuse..
It's a land grab by universities and county gov and tourisum geeks..
Everyone wants on the waters edge..
They are so obviouly corrupt..
It's still the "good 'ol boy" system with a little bit of adecademic greed thrown in..
P..ss me off..
Young folks don't have a decent chance here..


Also If you don't have a boat you are hard put to find a public place to fish..
And when you do find a place it's full of people and what a mess..
End of rant..
Same problem we've been having in New Providence... land on the water's edge is sold to the "high-falutins"... local fishermen can't even find a place to put a boat in the water... two public ramps for a population of 1/4 million...
6 hours from now.
I'm not sure the model bashers have a case, you know. It seems to me the energy split was forecast by the models; the larger part of the energy is making its way up the Bahamian archipelago, which the models also forecast. Even the NHC had Chantal in our waters as a depression at best...

It seems it isn't the MODELS that read Chantal wrong...

Have a great Thursday, everyone...
36 hours from now..do you see something on the east coast
landfall in 66 hours from now
Just a messy wave...

And another view of the mess...

2086. BahaHurican 7:46 AM EDT on July 11, 2013

Morning. Your point is well taken relative to where the remnants are now located.......Perhaps the models indicating a depression through the Bahamas considered the unfavorable upper level winds.

At this point, just have to see if the sheer lets up significantly..........That would explain the 20%.
Quoting 2034. WEATHERFANATIC5:
and mark my words dorian will amount to much within 7 days

I agree Fanatic!! :P

Beautiful morning from the woods in Southern Illinois. Ahhhhh.

Natalie :)

Quoting 2090. StormJunkie:
And another view of the mess...


Sup Junkie. Give it up, man. She's dead and gone. How's things in Summerville treating ya??

Nat
2094. pcola57
Quoting 2084. BahaHurican:
Same problem we've been having in New Providence... land on the water's edge is sold to the "high-falutins"... local fishermen can't even find a place to put a boat in the water... two public ramps for a population of 1/4 million...


I bet the launch line is terrible for those two public ramps..
Thats quite a large population Baha..

Mid-Level Shear..
Thats quite a High over NM,Ariz,Colo,Utah..

Quoting 2055. hu2007:
i think that chantal will regenerate close to the bahamas and hit florida as a tropical depresion o a storm much like did katrina the diference is that it may not hit lousiana but may hit florida and lastly texas as a weak hurricane let see what chantal will do next. never overestimated a dead system


Wow, that's a forecast and a half! I agree though, they always need watching as things can change just enough to help them out later.

wasn't sure what to expect this morning/afternoon when got on here. I did think she'd get torn apart over land, but was booming last night, so went to bed with an eyebrow raised! but alas.

Well, still hot and sunny in N Wales...have had enough of it! Yesterday was awful, and actually worse at the beaches than inland in the mtns/valleys, so headed back inland. Probably helped that the clouds bubbled a wee bit over the mtns giving some relief from the strong Sun. Great beach weather, but is flat as, well, something very flat! So nothing to draw me to the water. The breeze is very good today though, so not nearly as bad.
Saw a David Bowie cat yesterday! White cat with 1 green eye and 1 blue, the slim white duke cat LOL

A good reason why I probably wouldn't do well in tropics too, got a bite from I think a midgie (diff between mosquitos and midgies for me, is if mosquitos...I will have about 20 bites all over, midgies usually only get 1 or 2) but my arm is swollen and blazing from this one lil bite, from this miniscule bug ARGH!

Anyway, glad FL looks like ain't gonna get a dousing from Chantal or the remnants, hope she stays offshore and off and away. Hope everyone's well otherwise!
Quoting 2086. BahaHurican:
I'm not sure the model bashers have a case, you know. It seems to me the energy split was forecast by the models; the larger part of the energy is making its way up the Bahamian archipelago, which the models also forecast. Even the NHC had Chantal in our waters as a depression at best...

It seems it isn't the MODELS that read Chantal wrong...

Have a great Thursday, everyone...


Her remains have indeed ended up where they were saying initially, not sure anyone can dispute that, for a while they all had her around there at some point
2097. Relix
EATL Wave looks so dry
Another sure sign she is not likely to rebound...

GHCC is out of rapid scan.



SI, life is good. And you?
Quoting 2098. StormJunkie:
Another sure sign she is not likely to rebound...

GHCC is out of rapid scan.



SI, life is good. And you?

Terrific SJ! Thanks for asking.
Good morning all, 78 with 77% humidity, kinda sticky except for the breeze out of the west with the approaching front. Top of the day from NOLA
Good Morning/Evening

I hope Chantal does take a hard West turn and dump on NE and Central Florida.

Yes, Georgia doesn't need anymore Rain, and South Florida is flush. BUT Central Florida lakes are still 6" below minimum desirable levels and a foot below management levels. Wish it could just dump on Lake Apopka and then flow into the whole Ocklawaha Chain. A good freshwater flush into Indian River Lagoon, (without the stormwater nutrients) might at the very least swap out the species of algae that is blooming and killing the seagrass, starving manatees, and doing something odd to dolphins.

Send Chantal's wave over here.
Quoting 2059. pcola57:
Good Morning IRG,Zampaz,Savannah,hurricaines2018 and All..
Chantal has exited stage NW..
My prediction was a Friday demise but she never slowed down much so..
We shall see the last act from her soon..
IRG did you get any rain from that ULL?
That Eco-Digest link is one I will explore further..
Hydrology doesn't take my part of Florida into account.. :(

79 degrees here with 78%rh and dew at 72..
Winds from the SW at 7..
Thunder in the distance..
Cloudy again..
As has been the case for 4 days now..
I bet August will be extra hot..

Beach looks dreary once again..




Yeah August will probably be steaming hot and buggy! Good morning Pcola, this rain is getting old. Hopefully with the high chances of rain today and tomorrow we'll get a nice weekend out of it.
Did Chantal's remnants move north last night...?
The NHC's yellow circle is north of Hispanola.
Quoting 2008. sar2401:

There's convection all over central America and Mexico that looks at least as good as the remnants of Chantal.

...Like I said had she tracked over DR ....Unfortunately, you really don't know that for sure!
Quoting 2069. pcola57:


Marty I never understood why they put that watershead there in the first place..
Was it to be able to build more and more and more??


Marvin, the Kissimmee River watershed has always been there. It is the defacto headwaters of the Florida Everglades, and begins in a small pond/marsh at the end of one of the runways at Orlando's airport. Thirty years ago, some brainiac decided to straighten it out, removing nearly 100 miles of twists turns and oxbows. This drained a LOT of land, which agriculture immediately occupied. When it was discovered that little could be worse for the health of Okeechobee lake, they began a "restoration" project to put all the twists and turns back.

Agriculture then demanded to be payed for the land they did not own to begin with that reflooded, and our state, always ready to feed agriculture money, paid them... even though WE the citizens actually owned the land. Meantime, agriculture obstructed water quality standards so the EPA made us adopt theirs. Governor Bush promptly delayed this for 15 years, in payment for sugars help getting his brother elected.

The Miccosuki Indians had to sue the state because the still polluted water was killing the Florida everglades. They won, now, because ALL water decisions south of Orlando default to what sugar wants, they discharge all that polluted water out mam made connections to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.

63,580 gallons per SECOND out the Caloosahatchee, 9,724 gallons per SECOND out the St. Lucie. We also have some 11,220 gallons per second coming from the St. Lucie watershed, which has been forcibly increased from 350 square miles, to more than 800 by water managers.

The state of Florida, and its Department of Environmental Protection is totally corrupt, and does the bidding of agriculture, citizens health and well being be damned. Protecting polluters, pulp mills and sugar cane is more important than the health of our citizens.

This discharges coming out the St. Lucie pass directly through the most diverse fishery in CONUS, AND the study area that earned the Indian River lagoon the most diverse estuary in north America.

So, given all this water overload, and the protection of sugar cane that we subsidize, and pay more than twice world rates for, the two estuaries are destroyed, and peoples health put into danger from the polluted, cyanobacterial carrying water being dumped on us.





Quoting 2103. JrWeathermanFL:
Did Chantal's remnants move north last night...?
The NHC's yellow circle is north of Hispanola.


The mid level moved north.

The low level tried to go west, but was destroyed.

There is still 850mb vorticity centered over Cuba, SW of the convection in the Bahamas area.

The vort max looks like it is currently at 22N 76W
Good morning, 100% overcast grey sky here.
Light rain on and off all night, no wind to speak of.
Quoting 2013. sar2401:

I wish I had all those answers. As far as the westward movement, that's very typical with weak, low latitude storms. They usually get caught up in the Caribbean westerlies. The problem was both the NHC and the models were fixated on her moving north, and that wasn't going to happen with a storm of such a small size and high pressure. I think the mountains of Hispanola caused most of the convection earlier today, and the outflow of the collapsing storms opened up the center. The same thing is going to happen with the convection that's moving north over the Bahamas now, as they leave what remains of ex-Chantal's circulation behind. Some folks get excited about convection occuring because there happened to be a TS there earlier today. Nighttime convection is always common in the Caribbean, as can be seen all over the basin right now. I don't think it means a darn thing for regeneration.
The real reason was that she was going too fast, too low and very disorganized. Mountains didn't help either.
Quoting 2094. pcola57:


I bet the launch line is terrible for those two public ramps..
Thats quite a large population Baha..

Mid-Level Shear..
Thats quite a High over NM,Ariz,Colo,Utah..

Pple like my dad who used to keep small boats on trailers generally no longer bother. Nassau's the major population centre of the country. Freeport is 1/5 the size, and the Family Islands are much less populated. This can be a good and bad thing during hurricanes, as even major strikes on the outlying islands e.g. Irene, Ike are not as costly infrastructure-wise as a strike on New Providence. We haven't had a major pass directly over the city since Prohibition, with the closest call in recent times being Andrew to our north {and before that Betsy]. One of my biggest fears is a direct hit from a powerful storm on New Providence. We have a lot of people in flood zones who would be at risk, mainly of the storm surge.
Quoting 2098. StormJunkie:
Another sure sign she is not likely to rebound...

GHCC is out of rapid scan.



SI, life is good. And you?
Note the clear air over the NW Bahamas... nothing to see here, move along....
morning
Nothing too exciting in the hurricane development areas. the waves however are lined up over Africa ready to exit the coast. the areas worth mentioning are the 20% remnants of Chantal and a small area of spin at 11N 30W associated with a westward moving tropical wave. the wave is within the ITCZ and has very little convection. it could bring rain to Saint Lucia carnival this weekend.
BAMs run


The Death of Chantal

Quoting 2101. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening

I hope Chantal does take a hard West turn and dump on NE and Central Florida.

Yes, Georgia doesn't need anymore Rain, and South Florida is flush. BUT Central Florida lakes are still 6" below minimum desirable levels and a foot below management levels. Wish it could just dump on Lake Apopka and then flow into the whole Ocklawaha Chain. A good freshwater flush into Indian River Lagoon, (without the stormwater nutrients) might at the very least swap out the species of algae that is blooming and killing the seagrass, starving manatees, and doing something odd to dolphins.

Send Chantal's wave over here.

I'm in Volusia county and absolutely agree with you, all of our lakes are several feet below where they should be. Bring on a couple of 12" rain events please...
Chantal was a dress rehearsal of what is to come this season. The Bermuda High will make sure future tracks impact the islands and SE USA.

I am putting up my hurricane shutters on my gable vents as they are the most difficult to reach as I am sure this will be the year for a big hit or several hits.

Now for the waiting game.
2116. ncstorm
Good Morning all..

Quoting 2105. indianrivguy:


Marvin, the Kissimmee River watershed has always been there. It is the defacto headwaters of the Florida Everglades, and begins in a small pond/marsh at the end of one of the runways at Orlando's airport. Thirty years ago, some brainiac decided to straighten it out, removing nearly 100 miles of twists turns and oxbows. This drained a LOT of land, which agriculture immediately occupied. When it was discovered that little could be worse for the health of Okeechobee lake, they began a "restoration" project to put all the twists and turns back.

Agriculture then demanded to be payed for the land they did not own to begin with that reflooded, and our state, always ready to feed agriculture money, paid them... even though WE the citizens actually owned the land. Meantime, agriculture obstructed water quality standards so the EPA made us adopt theirs. Governor Bush promptly delayed this for 15 years, in payment for sugars help getting his brother elected.

The Miccosuki Indians had to sue the state because the still polluted water was killing the Florida everglades. They won, now, because ALL water decisions south of Orlando default to what sugar wants, they discharge all that polluted water out mam made connections to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.

63,580 gallons per SECOND out the Caloosahatchee, 9,724 gallons per SECOND out the St. Lucie. We also have some 11,220 gallons per second coming from the St. Lucie watershed, which has been forcibly increased from 350 square miles, to more than 800 by water managers.

The state of Florida, and its Department of Environmental Protection is totally corrupt, and does the bidding of agriculture, citizens health and well being be damned. Protecting polluters, pulp mills and sugar cane is more important than the health of our citizens.

This discharges coming out the St. Lucie pass directly through the most diverse fishery in CONUS, AND the study area that earned the Indian River lagoon the most diverse estuary in north America.

So, given all this water overload, and the protection of sugar cane that we subsidize, and pay more than twice world rates for, the two estuaries are destroyed, and peoples health put into danger from the polluted, cyanobacterial carrying water being dumped on us.





Marty -
There's more info in that one post than half the blog puts up in a year. You simply must start making regular posts on your blog (at least once a month!). The reason that the polluters will eventually be stopped is because of people like you (Skypony also comes to mind, but there are many others). You write well, you know your history, you have documentation to back it up...get the word OUT.

Sorry folks, just had to butt-in there. I hope everyone is doing well and having a wonderful Good Morning!

6:46 am (10:46 GMT)

Shot through mangrove trees growing from man-made estuary in Bicentennial Park, Lantana,FL.

6:47 am
Quoting 2027. Stormchaser121:

AND....Future Dorian may take a similar path to Chantal. Where it will go as far as East coast or GOM is the question. Too far out right now...we will see.

...so right into the graveyard then. Thank god.
Quoting 2101. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening

I hope Chantal does take a hard West turn and dump on NE and Central Florida.

Yes, Georgia doesn't need anymore Rain, and South Florida is flush. BUT Central Florida lakes are still 6" below minimum desirable levels and a foot below management levels. Wish it could just dump on Lake Apopka and then flow into the whole Ocklawaha Chain. A good freshwater flush into Indian River Lagoon, (without the stormwater nutrients) might at the very least swap out the species of algae that is blooming and killing the seagrass, starving manatees, and doing something odd to dolphins.

Send Chantal's wave over here.


one does not come without the other... it is the last thing the lagoon needs.
Quoting 2056. forecaster1:
JUST like I said nothing in the Caribbean....
THE NHC is handcuffed their self they stink.....
Watching models listening to predictions from computers and ignoring the simple!


Go back and read my post that have been ignored and see if it helps in the future. GOD Bless!


Oh of course. The NHC is only a bunch of experts with PhDs etc. What could they possibly know?

They had it right...they predicted a depression in the Bahamas and it is a remnant so they were not far off at all.
2122. MTWX
Quoting 2043. LargoFl:
amazing how much rain we have been getting huh.....

We've already picked up close to 4" so far just this morning and it is still pouring!!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBUS...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 546 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR STEENS AND COLUMBUS.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH BUT WERE TENDING
TO TRAIN AND BACKBUILD OVER THE SAME AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
HOUR WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES A HOUR CAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF COLUMBUS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS: THE MASONIC SUBDIVISION ALONG MAGBY CREEK...AREAS ALONG THE
LUXIPALILA CREEK FROM CBDG CONTINUANCE SOUTH OF MAIN AND WEST OF
COLUMBUS...SOUTH OF 182...THE MISSISSIPPI UNIVERSITY FOR WOMEN
INCLUDING 15TH STREET AT COLLEGE STREET...LOCATIONS ALONG MOORES
CREEK...AND THE COLUMBUS BRICK DETENTION POND.

2123. pottery
Good morning all.
Lovely hot, bright morning with some haze that will burn off later. Same as yesterday. Temps in the mid 90's. No rain in sight.

Off to water some very dry and wilted looking plants.

Remind me... it's May, right ??
Or is it July, and The Season is a bust ?

:):))
the area 11N 30W looks interesting. there, convection is slightly on the increase, low level winds are moving to the area. It also has a some spin ,a low shear environment and finally a weak ULAC over it. nothing to shout about, but something to keep an eye on down the road.
Quoting 2115. rmbjoe1954:
Chantal was a dress rehearsal of what is to come this season. The Bermuda High will make sure future tracks impact the islands and SE USA.

I am putting up my hurricane shutters on my gable vents as they are the most difficult to reach as I am sure this will be the year for a big hit or several hits.

Now for the waiting game.

I hate to say this but I do agree with you..... If the AB High stay's as strong or even gets stronger we all could be in for a Long Ride....

Taco :o)
With all the Moisture out there left behind from Chantal is unbelievable and possibly the next wave or even the one after that could set it off. Very explosive out there....

Taco :o)
Quoting 2101. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening

I hope Chantal does take a hard West turn and dump on NE and Central Florida.

Yes, Georgia doesn't need anymore Rain, and South Florida is flush. BUT Central Florida lakes are still 6" below minimum desirable levels and a foot below management levels. Wish it could just dump on Lake Apopka and then flow into the whole Ocklawaha Chain. A good freshwater flush into Indian River Lagoon, (without the stormwater nutrients) might at the very least swap out the species of algae that is blooming and killing the seagrass, starving manatees, and doing something odd to dolphins.

Send Chantal's wave over here.
I hope it doesn't. :)
WOW! what a waste of energy, nuttin left, poof, gone, dust in the wind she is.
2129. pottery
Quoting RitaEvac:
WOW! what a waste of energy, nuttin left, poof, gone, dust in the wind she is.

As busted as a Piñata at a 6 yr-olds party.....
2130. Levi32
All focus is on the trough in the Bahamas associated with ex-Chantal, but there is a 2nd piece to the south in the form of a sharp wave axis with no thunderstorms on it, continuing the journey westward.

I think this should be watched as it nears the Yucatan and then west of the Yucatan in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It's being sheared in a suppressive upper flow right now, but will be moving under a ridge aloft near the Yucatan, and the upper low splitting off over the SE US will be retrograding away from it in the western gulf in 3-4 days. Such a pattern could lead to thunderstorm growth in the area, and throwing a sharp wave axis like this in the mix can get interesting. It's also the leading edge of the resurgence of the Caribbean low-level jet in the wake of Chantal, meaning there's going to be a lot of air piling into the western Caribbean and SW gulf in the coming days. Air piling up usually rises.



2131. LargoFl
my guess is many area's will be breaking rainfall records for july..for my immediate area its been raining every day now for 3 weeks and no end in sight..looking out in the gulf right now the sea breeze storms are forming early,so inland area's..this evening will get interesting again..one thing I notice..more than usual Lightning..the other night it was like a nightclub with all those flashing lights lol...well stay safe folks..the weekend is almost here.
2132. pcola57
Quoting 2102. 69Viking:


Yeah August will probably be steaming hot and buggy! Good morning Pcola, this rain is getting old. Hopefully with the high chances of rain today and tomorrow we'll get a nice weekend out of it.


I sure hope so 69Viking..
I can't think of another July and June with this much cloud cover..
SST's must be down in the GOM right now..
By this time last year we had a couple of 100 degree days under our belt..
The Climate, "she's a changin".. :)
2133. GatorWX
Do I see a surface circulation just nw of port au prince?
2134. LargoFl
Quoting 2130. Levi32:
All focus is on the trough in the Bahamas associated with ex-Chantal, but there is a 2nd piece to the south in the form of a sharp wave axis with no thunderstorms on it, continuing the journey westward.

I think this should be watched as it nears the Yucatan and then west of the Yucatan in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It's being sheared in a suppressive upper flow right now, but will be moving under a ridge aloft near the Yucatan, and the upper low splitting off over the SE US will be retrograding away from it in the western gulf in 3-4 days. Such a pattern could lead to thunderstorm growth in the area, and throwing a sharp wave axis like this in the mix can get interesting. It's also the leading edge of the resurgence of the Caribbean low-level jet in the wake of Chantal, meaning there's going to be a lot of air piling into the western Caribbean and SW gulf in the coming days. Air piling up usually rises.



Good point made there Levi..a few days ago the GFS saw this happening and brought it into the gulf then into Texas as a rain maker.
Dexter's Weather Report
Pressure 29.95 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Few 2000 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
Humidity 80%
Rainfall 0.00
Temperature 82.1
Heat Index 89 °F
Dew Point 75 °F
Wind Speed / Dir 1.0 mph from SSE
Wind Gust 2.0 mph
UV 1 out of 16
Pollen 3.30 out of 12
Ozone Good
PM2.5 Good
Flu Activity Sporadic

...rain chances to increase tomorrow...

...to a quick look at the radar...

...and now, back to you, Blog!
Looking at sat pics this morning is the low level circulation in the Mona passage in between Haiti and Eastern tip of Cuba?
2137. LargoFl
notice north Texas next tuesday............
Quoting 2133. GatorWX:
Do I see a surface circulation just nw of port au prince?
Gator, I thought I noticed it as well. Other folks "see" the spin?
Dexter is my favorite meteorologist. So which model has done the best job with Chantal?
2140. zampaz
Quoting 2094. pcola57:


I bet the launch line is terrible for those two public ramps..
Thats quite a large population Baha..

Mid-Level Shear..
Thats quite a High over NM,Ariz,Colo,Utah..


Would it be appropriate to call that a "Rocky Mountain High?"
I understand those are legal now.
2141. LargoFl
NAM for Sunday..hmmm
Quoting 2136. matilda101:
Looking at sat pics this morning is the low level circulation in the Mona passage in between Haiti and Eastern tip of Cuba?
Several of us are seeing some spin W of Haiti and E of Cuba. Mona passage is the area E of Dominican Republic and W of Puerto Rico...there is Isla Mona or Mona Island in the Mona passage.
2143. sar2401
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:


Oh of course. The NHC is only a bunch of experts with PhDs etc. What could they possibly know?

They had it right...they predicted a depression in the Bahamas and it is a remnant so they were not far off at all.

While the OP you were responding to is clearly a troll, I'm not so willing to let the NHC off the hook regarding Chantal. They (through the models) predicted a Tropical Storm in the Bahamas, not a remnant low. The predicted a NNE movement f Chantal when, in fact, she moved either WNW or straight west much of her life. This was also the second time they have gone from an AOI straight to a tropical storm. The model performance, in general, was poor and, if it wasn't for the hurricane hunters, I'm convinced that we would have had a hurricane that didn't really exist. The NHC is not made up of fools, so I'm sure they will examine what went right and what went wrong with Chantal. I don't want to see every forecaster taken out and shot, but I also don't want to irrationally defend them. It's kind of like when you become a Doctor. If you're doing an operation repair cataracts in both eyes and then don't do one, it's not a very good defense to say "Hey, at least I got one of them right". :-)
2144. LargoFl
Later on Sunday..............
Quoting 2135. mikatnight:
Dexter's Weather Report
Pressure 29.95 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Few 2000 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
Humidity 80%
Rainfall 0.00
Temperature 82.1
Heat Index 89 °F
Dew Point 75 °F
Wind Speed / Dir 1.0 mph from SSE
Wind Gust 2.0 mph
UV 1 out of 16
Pollen 3.30 out of 12
Ozone Good
PM2.5 Good
Flu Activity Sporadic

...rain chances to increase tomorrow...

...to a quick look at the radar...

...and now, back to you, Blog!

Mick at Night ~ You sure have been on a role with posting these great images. Thank you for sharing with us. I have to ask you if you know: What kind of tree is that in the background? Such a beauty. It has great form and nice bark...a sycamore or green ash by chance? Oh and by the way the doggie so mega-cute too! :) Can't leave him/her out. :D

Nat
Quoting 2142. WarEagle8:
Several of us are seeing some spin W of Haiti and E of Cuba. Mona passage is the area E of Dominican Republic and W of Puerto Rico...there is Esla Mona or Mona Island in the Mona passage.


me bad I should have taken my geography lesson before I posted...just woke up...I knew better. lol
Quoting 2139. slavicthunder:
Dexter is my favorite meteorologist. So which model has done the best job with Chantal?


Skypony posted some data yesterday, if I recall correctly, the CMC model did the best track forecast.
Quoting 2133. GatorWX:
Do I see a surface circulation just nw of port au prince?


Appears to be a naked swirl just off the north coast of Cuba where NHC placed the 8 AM coords, 21.2N 76W.

Link
2149. LargoFl
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE
RIDGING BETWEEN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND GULF WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHING OF CHANTAL TO TRACK W-NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
Quoting 2139. slavicthunder:
Dexter is my favorite meteorologist. So which model has done the best job with Chantal?
none.
To me the spin just west of Haiti should be the area the NHC should be watching for possible regeneration thru out day.
2152. SLU
Looks like the Caribbean will be the place to be come August.



Quoting 2146. matilda101:


me bad I should have taken my geography lesson before I posted...just woke up...I knew better. lol
...might want to take an English lesson as well!
Quoting pottery:

As busted as a Piñata at a 6 yr-olds party.....


As busted as a trolls forecast for a cat 5 hitting Florida :-)
Quoting 2147. mikatnight:


Skypony posted some data yesterday, if I recall correctly, the CMC model did the best track forecast.


Gotcha. I understand the intensity forecasting was a bit tricky for this system. Either way, I'm gonna keep paying attention to the dog's prognostications. :)
2156. SLU
Latest NMME forecasts for Aug. and Sept.



EDIT

Good morning, weathergeeks! :)

No time to look and study, see a few good posts. Thanks. Still some leftover energy with healthy spin down there - not a time to totally write the thing off yet. Tricky, tricky in these warm waters and spin. :)




Note: Look at upper-level and mid-level shear. Seems upper has relaxed, mid has increased.




I'm out, playing Willie Nelson today - "on the road again"! Y'all hold the fort down, keep the gates closed. HAVE A NICE DAY! :)
Quoting 2145. SouthernIllinois:

Mick at Night ~ You sure have been on a role with posting these great images. Thank you for sharing with us. I have to ask you if you know: What kind of tree is that in the background? Such a beauty. It has great form and nice bark...a sycamore or green ash by chance? Oh and by the way the doggie so mega-cute too! :) Can't leave him/her out. :D

Nat


Yeah, Dexter's got his own fan base. Without his pic, not near as many likes. That's a Florida Oak tree, not sure which one (there's like 19 varieties), IndianRivGuy would know in a heartbeat. Thanks for the kind remarks, I'm having fun with this (now) daily routine! I'll try to keep it interesting, but it's getting hard to find new angles, compositions - wish that confounded bridge would hurry up and open so I could get to the ocean!
2159. sar2401
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Her remains have indeed ended up where they were saying initially, not sure anyone can dispute that, for a while they all had her around there at some point

The NHC had her as a TS all the way through the Bahamas. They did not ever predict she would split in two, with one half dead and the other half a remnant low in the Bahamas. The models never picked up on westward movement. The original forecast of a TS until the DR and then a depression was more accurate, but then the NHC began to strengthen her in later runs, even though the discussions showed they didn't have a lot of faith she would survive. I think the forecasters probably had it more right, but the models had it wrong. There's no way around it, and I'm hoping the results are used to improve model performance. I suspect it's difficult for forecasters to disregard models even if they believe they are suspect.
Soulik now forecast to hit Taiwan as a Cat 3, then recently flooded China area as a Cat 2.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2158. mikatnight:


Yeah, Dexter's got his own fan base. Without his pic, not near as many likes. That's a Florida Oak tree, not sure which one (there's like 19 varieties), IndianRivGuy would know in a heartbeat. Thanks for the kind remarks, I'm having fun with this (now) daily routine! I'll try to keep it interesting, but it's getting hard to find new angles, compositions - wish that confounded bridge would hurry up and open so I could get to the ocean!

Anytime mikatnight! And please do keep it rolling. I am enjoying this. :) A Florida Oak...cool! I'll have to go to my database and check out the scientific name and exact hardiness zones for that, but my guess is that particular species falls just outside of my range....darn!! Lol. I'd love to have one of those for my guess is it's probably a 8a to 9b and I'm in the 7a so it might freeze and shiver too much in the winter. :)

Nat :)
2163. pcola57
Quoting 2105. indianrivguy:


Marvin, the Kissimmee River watershed has always been there. It is the defacto headwaters of the Florida Everglades, and begins in a small pond/marsh at the end of one of the runways at Orlando's airport. Thirty years ago, some brainiac decided to straighten it out, removing nearly 100 miles of twists turns and oxbows. This drained a LOT of land, which agriculture immediately occupied. When it was discovered that little could be worse for the health of Okeechobee lake, they began a "restoration" project to put all the twists and turns back.

Agriculture then demanded to be payed for the land they did not own to begin with that reflooded, and our state, always ready to feed agriculture money, paid them... even though WE the citizens actually owned the land. Meantime, agriculture obstructed water quality standards so the EPA made us adopt theirs. Governor Bush promptly delayed this for 15 years, in payment for sugars help getting his brother elected.

The Miccosuki Indians had to sue the state because the still polluted water was killing the Florida everglades. They won, now, because ALL water decisions south of Orlando default to what sugar wants, they discharge all that polluted water out mam made connections to the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.

63,580 gallons per SECOND out the Caloosahatchee, 9,724 gallons per SECOND out the St. Lucie. We also have some 11,220 gallons per second coming from the St. Lucie watershed, which has been forcibly increased from 350 square miles, to more than 800 by water managers.

The state of Florida, and its Department of Environmental Protection is totally corrupt, and does the bidding of agriculture, citizens health and well being be damned. Protecting polluters, pulp mills and sugar cane is more important than the health of our citizens.

This discharges coming out the St. Lucie pass directly through the most diverse fishery in CONUS, AND the study area that earned the Indian River lagoon the most diverse estuary in north America.

So, given all this water overload, and the protection of sugar cane that we subsidize, and pay more than twice world rates for, the two estuaries are destroyed, and peoples health put into danger from the polluted, cyanobacterial carrying water being dumped on us.







Thank you so much for the explanation Marty..
I'm glad you are such a knowledgeable advocate and true River Master..
I wish I could go to your Facebook page as you have suggested in the past..
But I don't trust the privacy there..
I took down my page 2 yrs. ago after being trolled numerous times and friending people I didn't know just to clear up the junk..
I may yet try again but I will read every tutorial I can find first..
Posting personal stuff to a social site freaks me out a little..
Once again Marty..
You speak for many of us native Floridians..
More power to you my friend.. :)
Quoting 2143. sar2401:

While the OP you were responding to is clearly a troll, I'm not so willing to let the NHC off the hook regarding Chantal. They (through the models) predicted a Tropical Storm in the Bahamas, not a remnant low. The predicted a NNE movement f Chantal when, in fact, she moved either WNW or straight west much of her life. This was also the second time they have gone from an AOI straight to a tropical storm. The model performance, in general, was poor and, if it wasn't for the hurricane hunters, I'm convinced that we would have had a hurricane that didn't really exist. The NHC is not made up of fools, so I'm sure they will examine what went right and what went wrong with Chantal. I don't want to see every forecaster taken out and shot, but I also don't want to irrationally defend them. It's kind of like when you become a Doctor. If you're doing an operation repair cataracts in both eyes and then don't do one, it's not a very good defense to say "Hey, at least I got one of them right". :-)


Why are you guys still discussing this? Anyone that has studied weather knows that forecasting the weather is just an educated guess. The NHC gave the best forecast they could based on the data they had. They don't have a crystal ball that tells them EXACTLY how strong a ridge of high pressure or weakness is going to be or how high or low shear is going to be at any given time.
Quoting indianrivguy:


one does not come without the other... it is the last thing the lagoon needs.


Just released....
Health of U.S. Streams Reduced by Streamflow Modifications and Contaminants
Quoting 2159. sar2401:

The NHC had her as a TS all the way through the Bahamas. They did not ever predict she would split in two, with one half dead and the other half a remnant low in the Bahamas. The models never picked up on westward movement. The original forecast of a TS until the DR and then a depression was more accurate, but then the NHC began to strengthen her in later runs, even though the discussions showed they didn't have a lot of faith she would survive. I think the forecasters probably had it more right, but the models had it wrong. There's no way around it, and I'm hoping the results are used to improve model performance. I suspect it's difficult for forecasters to disregard models even if they believe they are suspect.


I said last night, I have much more faith in forecasters than models...and only saying they all had it head round Bahamas at some point, nothing about intensity, as they've had a problem with that from the start, didn't even make it to Hispaniola! I was just saying the basic location, they all did have it round there at one time. but even with that, timing of it being there is much earlier than the models were saying too. I agree, probably is hard to ignore the models, but I think the forecasters are better at seeing more immediate things that will help or hamper a system, that the models don't/can't take into account. If any forecaster 'just' go by models, i reckon they could be classed as lazy forecasters, doctorate or not! But I don't think many do that, as it's obvs a profession you'd likely have some passion for. But with tropical systems, event he best forecaster using all he has available, will still be wrong.
2167. zampaz
Quoting 2166. mitthbevnuruodo:


I said last night, I have much more faith in forecasters than models...and only saying they all had it head round Bahamas at some point, nothing about intensity, as they've had a problem with that from the start, didn't even make it to Hispaniola! I was just saying the basic location, they all did have it round there at one time. but even with that, timing of it being there is much earlier than the models were saying too. I agree, probably is hard to ignore the models, but I think the forecasters are better at seeing more immediate things that will help or hamper a system, that the models don't/can't take into account. If any forecaster 'just' go by models, i reckon they could be classed as lazy forecasters, doctorate or not! But I don't think many do that, as it's obvs a profession you'd likely have some passion for. But with tropical systems, event he best forecaster using all he has available, will still be wrong.

Dr. Masters started a new blog mitthbevnuruodo.
The Death of Chantal