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Unusual Chantal Disorganized, but has 65 mph Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

Unusual Tropical Storm Chantal has strengthened a bit more as it speeds west-northwestwards at 26 mph away from the the Lesser Antilles Islands. Sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were observed at Martinique at 10 am AST as the storm passed. However, an automated weather station at the airport measured sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 78 mph, according to an official with Meteo-France. The Associated Press reported that Chantal ripped the roofs off of several homes on neighboring Dominica. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured top winds at their 1,000' flight level of 89 mph at 12:55 pm AST. Top winds seen by the aircraft's SFMR instrument were about 65 mph, in a small area east of Chantal's center. The Hurricane Hunters have departed Chantal, and the next plane is due in the storm at 8 pm EDT. Chantal's winds are unusually high considering the storm's high central pressure of 1006 mb and disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. Chantal is fighting dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Visible satellite loops show the outflow boundaries of these thunderstorm downdrafts at the surface, spreading to the northwest of Chantal. Martinique Radar shows a large area of heavy rain that is not well-organized, lying mostly to the west of the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Chantal taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Tuesday, July 9, 2013. At the time, Chantal had top winds of 65 mph, but looked very disorganized, due to high wind shear and dry air. Dry air is creating strong thunderstorm downdrafts that are robbing Chantal of moisture and energy. Outflow boundaries from these downdrafts are spreading out to the northwest of Chantal, as seen on this satellite image. Image credit: NASA.

An small-scale easterly jet creating high shear in Chantal
Chantal is not very impressive on satellite images, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. Only a small amount of upper-level outflow is visible. The reason for Chantal's rather disorganized appearance can be found by looking at this morning's balloon sounding from Guadaloupe. This island was just northwest of the center of Chantal when the balloon was launched at 8 am EDT. The sounding showed typical easterly trade winds at the surface of 12 knots (14 mph.) However, the winds rose quickly aloft, with a jet of easterly winds of 35 - 53 knots between 800 - 600 mb (about 7,000 - 15,000'.) But, by the time the ballon hit 500 mb (18,000'), the winds had died down to 15 knots. A change of wind speed from 12 knots to 53 knots and back down to 15 knots from the surface to 500 mb is a tremendous amount of wind shear, which will make it very difficult for a tropical storm to keep the surface center aligned with the upper level center. The traditional measure of wind shear, the difference in wind between 200 mb and 850 mb, was 44 knots in this morning's Guadaloupe sounding, but was a much higher 56 knots from 200 mb to 700 mb. The powerful easterly wind jet was not apparent at any of the other balloon soundings this morning at adjacent islands (Barbados, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin), and demonstrates that there is a lot going on the atmosphere at small scales we cannot see which makes intensity forecasting of tropical cyclones very challenging. Thanks go to Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division for pointing out this morning's interesting Guadaloupe sounding.

Forecast for Chantal
Chantal will have difficulty intensifying much more before hitting Hispaniola on Wednesday afternoon. In their 11 am EDT wind probability forecast, NHC gave Chantal a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola. Working against intensification will be the high wind shear from the strong mid-level easterly jet discussed above, plus the fast forward speed of the storm--tropical storms moving faster than 20 mph in the deep tropics usually have trouble intensifying. In addition, the Eastern Caribbean is an area where the trade winds accelerate, helping drive sinking air that discourages tropical storm intensification. Dry air will also slow down the intensification process. Interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola and high wind shear may be able to destroy Chantal by Thursday. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model calls for shear to rise to the high range, 20 - 35 knots, Tuesday night through Friday. On Saturday, when Chantal is expected to be in the Bahamas, moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is predicted. If Chantal survives until Saturday, it will then have the opportunity to re-strengthen. The latest 12Z run of the European model (ECMWF) dissipates Chantal as it crosses Hispaniola. The 12Z run of the American GFS model has Chantal barely surviving.

Chantal's fast west-northwest forward speed of 26 mph will slow to 20 mph by Wednesday morning and then 10 mph by Thursday night, as the storm "feels" the presence of a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast. This trough will steer Chantal to the northwest and then north-northwest across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. The trough of low pressure pulling Chantal northwards is expected to lift out the the northeast over the weekend, leaving Chantal behind off the coast of Florida. High pressure will likely build in, potentially forcing Chantal westwards into the Florida or Southeast U.S. coast, with a possible Sunday landfall.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Where the heck are you getting live updates on HH mission?

I tried links at NHC.Noaa and it didn't have anything like that.
2502. LargoFl
Quoting 2499. RitaEvac:


We're becoming a burnt crisp as cracks are widening and opening near foundations of homes, crape-myrtles are drooping and dying, grass is dying.
I hear ya rita..i am hoping it does come your way..only fear is..the gulf waters are real warm..it could get strong again
2503. GetReal
Quoting 2501. RTSplayer:
Where the heck are you getting live updates on HH mission?

I tried links at NHC.Noaa and it didn't have anything like that.


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Quoting 2483. RevInFL:
Is Chantal strengthening again? Am I off the hook on the east central FL coast? I am just trying to understand what this little trickster is doing.

Not yet... At this point she could still scrape the East coast, but it's looking more likely that she'll either head right up the peninsula or go west of it.
Quoting 2501. RTSplayer:
Where the heck are you getting live updates on HH mission?

I tried links at NHC.Noaa and it didn't have anything like that.

I have it on Google Earth, can't quite remember where I found the download though.
Quoting 2501. RTSplayer:
Where the heck are you getting live updates on HH mission?

I tried links at NHC.Noaa and it didn't have anything like that.
Link
Quoting 2506. TylerStanfield:

I have it on Google Earth, can't quite remember where I found the download though.


I'll try googling it then. Thanks.
acc/ to my hurricane tracking map the bend to the west last night saved her from going headon into hispanola.
I expect Chantal to move into the Gulf strenghtening into an upper end Cat. 2 Hurricane. Then it should move over Florida and up the East Coast steadily strenghtening into Cat. 4 Hurricane striking NYC with 150 mph.
2511. LargoFl
GFS has it going up the east coast route saturday..way too early yet to believe any one model..by friday we should have a better idea.............................................. ..........
From

From 332° at 3 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 3.4 mph)


To


From 147° at 17 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 19.5 mph)


Wind shift but very broad center.
Recon just flew through the estimated center fix... If she has a circulation, its a wreck and very ill defined..
2514. LargoFl
Quoting 2510. fabian171017:
I expect Chantal to move into the Gulf strenghtening into an upper end Cat. 2 Hurricane. Then it should move over Florida and up the East Coast steadily strenghtening into Cat. 4 Hurricane striking NYC with 150 mph.
that HIGH off the east coast wont let that happen.
2515. GetReal



Interesting???
Quoting 2514. LargoFl:
that HIGH off the east coast wont let that happen.

I hope that doesn't happen.
2517. Levi32
Chantal will still have a chance to restrengthen later. If one looks at the visible loop below, the trade winds slow in speed greatly north of 17N west of Chantal, and have started backing from W to WNW in front of her. Once in this region of the NW Caribbean, the low-level flow into the system will then be convergent, meaning air would be piling up and potentially rising. This would be favorable for restrengthening, but then modest upper-level wind shear and interaction with mountainous Cuba would be the negative factors that could potentially kill her off for good. Even beyond that, she may have another chance in the eastern gulf in the face of a retrograding upper low. It's not over, but for now Chantal has ceased to be an immediately significant threat except for heavy rainfall.

If it survives Cuba and makes it to the steaming GOMEX I would not be surprised if it regenerate into at least a strong tropical storm. Rapid intensification doubt it. I guess it will dependo on shear and dry air in the area. I see plenty of misture in the GOMEX anyone here have a clue as to how the shear will be looking this weekend in the GOMEX?
Quoting 2467. ProgressivePulse:
Wonder why no VDM was issued. I wonder if they indeed found a closed circulation.


It didn't look good & closed, with no VDM I'd assume it wasn't. They are making another pass at it now.
14:36:00Z 16.167N 71.933W
59.1 knots (~ 67.9 mph)
Tropical Storm


WOaa
Update should be out in about 15 minutes right?
What is everyone's opinion on what it will show?
2522. quante
Tick tock, until 11:00, when NHC will throw some more cold water on old Chantal.
Quoting 2517. Levi32:
Chantal will still have a chance to restrengthen later. If one looks at the visible loop below, the trade winds slow in speed greatly north of 17N west of Chantal. Once in this region of the NW Caribbean, the low-level flow into the system will then be convergent, meaning air would be piling up and potentially rising. This would be favorable for restrengthening, but then modest upper-level wind shear and interaction with mountainous Cuba would be the negative factors that could potentially kill her off for good. Even beyond that, she may have another chance in the eastern gulf in the face of a retrograding upper low. It's not over, but for now Chantal has ceased to be an immediately significant threat.


Just amazes me how significantly things can change within 24 hours.
Well, what I found isn't as good as whatever you're using, but it looks like Chantal is either a depression or a 40mph minimum TS.
The circulation is closed it was apperant last night on RGB loops.
2526. LargoFl
for MY area i sure hope this does NOT come true track wise, we do NOT need any more rain here....................
Recon found a closed Circulation. Very, very ill defined. But it's still there, amazingly.
Quoting 2521. southernema:
Update should be out in about 15 minutes right?
What is everyone's opinion on what it will show?


A shift to the west. A rain event to the FL Keys up the peninsula.
Quoting 2520. ProgressivePulse:
14:36:00Z 16.167N 71.933W
59.1 knots (~ 67.9 mph)
Tropical Storm


WOaa


Is that surface? Or flight?

If that's surface that would be incredible given the poor presentation.
Quoting 2510. fabian171017:
I expect Chantal to move into the Gulf strenghtening into an upper end Cat. 2 Hurricane. Then it should move over Florida and up the East Coast steadily strenghtening into Cat. 4 Hurricane striking NYC with 150 mph.
that will nevere happern in july maybe in late august..
Quoting 2524. RTSplayer:
Well, what I found isn't as good as whatever you're using, but it looks like Chantal is either a depression or a 40mph minimum TS.

Recon was finding winds of 45-50 mph still, shes not a depression.
If she still has a llc I am very impress not even her foward movement nor trade winds have kill her.Impressive
Time: 14:32:30Z
Coordinates: 16.1667N 71.7333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.9 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 805 meters (~ 2,641 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1014.7 mb (~ 29.96 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 206° at 8 knots (From the SSW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Dew Pt: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 12 knots (~ 13.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 17 mm/hr (~ 0.67 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2013 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:12:35 N Lon : 71:00:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 999.0mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -67.5C Cloud Region Temp : -63.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Quoting 2530. RTSplayer:


Is that surface? Or flight?

If that's surface that would be incredible given the poor presentation.


Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor

SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind
64 knots
(~ 73.6 mph)
Time: 14:21:00Z
Coordinates: 16.6333N 71.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.8 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 802 meters (~ 2,631 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.3 mb (~ 29.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 300° at 6 knots (From the WNW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Dew Pt: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 2489. LargoFl:
remember folks this system may look bad right now, but wait till it hits the gulf stream whose waters are very warm its not over til she sings huh


The water it is moving over now is every bit as warm



Well, they have at least 42.6mph wind just to the NE of the intuitive center fix, so that would still justify the warning level of TS "near 45mph".
2540. Dakster
Quoting 2527. TylerStanfield:
Recon found a closed Circulation. Very, very ill defined. But it's still there, amazingly.


Chantal never ceases to amaze.
Those 70+MPH readings were in the NE quad just east of the supposed center.
I am thinking that if Chantal weakens a little bit, it could become a concern to western portions of the Gulf. If chantal stays weak, it won't feel this trough as much and will move south of forecast track. Shear also drops off slightly to the west of the storm and possible re-intensification could occur. It is an interesting scenario but it is only one of many.
Quoting 2537. stormpetrol:
Time: 14:21:00Z
Coordinates: 16.6333N 71.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 924.8 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 802 meters (~ 2,631 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.3 mb (~ 29.92 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 300° at 6 knots (From the WNW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Dew Pt: 19.5°C (~ 67.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


That helps. I'll call it 16.7n and 72w, w/ 45mph winds.
2545. will40
Quoting 2541. ProgressivePulse:
Those 70+MPH readings were in the NE quad just east of the supposed center.


did flight level verify that it wasnt suspect?
Chantal is phenominal. And yet the season has hardly started. What will happen when the trade winds wind down and the SST gets toasty?

Yikes! for sure.
2547. LargoFl
Looks OK on the Sat pic..................
Quoting 2510. fabian171017:
I expect Chantal to move into the Gulf strenghtening into an upper end Cat. 2 Hurricane. Then it should move over Florida and up the East Coast steadily strenghtening into Cat. 4 Hurricane striking NYC with 150 mph.


LOL...ok, just bite your tongue. I'm not doing that again. (from south shore of Long Island)!!!
Winds gusting 50 to 60 mph across the Southern Dominican Coast. Chantal is damm near putting up a fight this morning. Geesh!
Quoting 2541. ProgressivePulse:
Those 70+MPH readings were in the NE quad just east of the supposed center.


Yeah but was it in the right direction? Was it a waterspout, or was it TS cyclonic winds?
Quoting 2541. ProgressivePulse:
Those 70+MPH readings were in the NE quad just east of the supposed center.


Some of those winds are being verified at the coast now.
Chantal appears to be heading WNW.
The little train that could? Looks like she's got that never-say-die attitude.

its a tropical wave CHANTAL now!!
11am is late....
Quoting 2545. will40:


did flight level verify that it wasnt suspect?


Light winds at flight level. There was a steady lead up to and then down from the 70mph reading. Was not denoted as suspect, could be however.
Flight level
From 147° at 17 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 19.5 mph)

SFMR
66 knots
(~ 75.9 mph)

Rain
61 mm/hr
(~ 2.40 in/hr)

Totally bogus SFMR
Quoting 2510. fabian171017:
I expect Chantal to move into the Gulf strenghtening into an upper end Cat. 2 Hurricane. Then it should move over Florida and up the East Coast steadily strenghtening into Cat. 4 Hurricane striking NYC with 150 mph.

This is sarcasm I am pretty sure
only one Cat 4 has made it to North Carolina one in NYC would be near impossible to pull of especially in July
Worst case track IMO now that she is missing Haiti to the south. FL better be on gaurd!!
Quoting 2555. FIUStormChaser:
11am is late....


It is not even 11am yet...
Quoting 2555. FIUStormChaser:
11am is late....


I think NHC is baffled about what they need to post for the advisory. They can't over play it, but if they downplay the intensity everyone will throw a fit again. It's understandable, because nothing makes sense about this storm anyway.
2562. LargoFl
Time:14:35:00ZCoordinates:16.1667N 71.8667WAcft. Static Air Press:927.6 mb (~ 27.39 inHg)Acft. Geopotential Hgt:774 meters (~ 2,539 feet)Extrap. Sfc. Press:1013.6 mb (~ 29.93 inHg)D-value:-Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):From 173° at 11 knots (From the S at ~ 12.6 mph)Air Temp:19.1°C (~ 66.4°F)Dew Pt:17.1°C (~ 62.8°F)Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:69 knots* (~ 79.3 mph*)SFMR Rain Rate:46 mm/hr* (~ 1.81 in/hr*)(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 2560. boltdwright:


It is not even 11am yet...


No, but they are usually 20 minutes ahead of time so news media has time to prep for the advisory at the top of the hour.
11:01 is late not 10:58
Quoting 2555. FIUStormChaser:
11am is late....
2566. jeebsa
Very interesting for sure
2567. Dakster
Quoting 2560. boltdwright:


It is not even 11am yet...


We get spoiled because the NHC typically releases the advisories early. I bet they are waiting for some recon to come back before releasing it on time.
She is not dead yet.
Quoting 2559. StormTrackerScott:
Worst case track IMO now that she is missing Haiti to the south. FL better be on gaurd!!


I am sorry but actually that's the best thing that could've happened. I'd rather see a minimal Hurricane hit Florida than a tropical storm hit Haiti. This could've caused well over 100 deaths in Haiti, while in Florida we will probably just see some minor damage.
2570. IKE
WTNT23 KNHC 101457
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
2571. 62901IL
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1000 AM EST WED JUL 10 2013

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A
TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

10:00 AM EST Wed Jul 10
Location: 16.5N 72.0W
Moving: W at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Quoting 2554. hurricanes2018:
its a tropical wave CHANTAL now!!

Do you think it will reform again?
2574. will40
its out now and im am shocked lol
2575. Dakster
It's out --- Happy now? Still a storm too.
Looks like she is trying to wrap up.

2577. IKE
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM

Horseshoes and handgrandes LOL
2579. 62901IL
Quoting 2423. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! :)

Chantal must have had a rough time last night, nearly looks to be an open wave, but there is still cyclonic turning and decent symmetrical inflows. I suspect it's trying to get its act back together. We know there had to be a vigorous low-level spin to survive all the dry air it has passed through already, so I'm doubting that it's willing to give up its ghost yet.

It does appear, at least to me, that it will continue to follow the more westerly track around the periphery of the 1016mb isobar high pressure that I've been mentioning for several days now, barely grazing Hispaniola if interacting with it at all. Mid-level shear is conducive and upper-level shear is forecast to relax in its path ahead.



Now, does it cross over the tip of eastern Cuba directly towards the ULL? Maybe, but present disorganization will only deteriorate more if it does. Idiom still is that weaker is west, still embedded within the still fairly strong, low/mid level easterly flow which means more towards Jamaica, either just south of the island or possibly in between it and the central part of Cuba. It should have time to reorganize by that point as well, especially as it comes into warmer, deeper TCHP waters there.



If it remains weak it'll track even further west where both TCHP values and upper level shear will be stronger. If it gains some strength it'll feel the tug of the retrograding ULL and eventually make the crossing over Cuba and into the GoM and the Gulf Stream. From there, my guess again, would be for it to head towards Apalacicola to Fort Meyers still.

Good analysis... hope u posted this whole thing in your own blog...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1000 AM EST WED JUL 10 2013

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A
TROPICAL STORM...
Quoting 2565. SFLWeatherman:
11:01 is late not 10:58


HE posted that message at 10:55 EDT.
2583. IKE

Quoting hurricanes2018:
its a tropical wave CHANTAL now!!
No.
She never shocks me anymore. She has a mind of her own
Quoting 2563. dfwstormwatch:
Time:14:35:00ZCoordinates:16.1667N 71.8667WAcft. Static Air Press:927.6 mb (~ 27.39 inHg)Acft. Geopotential Hgt:774 meters (~ 2,539 feet)Extrap. Sfc. Press:1013.6 mb (~ 29.93 inHg)D-value:-Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):From 173° at 11 knots (From the S at ~ 12.6 mph)Air Temp:19.1°C (~ 66.4°F)Dew Pt:17.1°C (~ 62.8°F)Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:69 knots* (~ 79.3 mph*)SFMR Rain Rate:46 mm/hr* (~ 1.81 in/hr*)(*) Denotes suspect data


Wow yeah.

surface wind being higher than flight does happen from time to time, but if that were legit it would be the biggest I've ever seen. Waterspout is most plausible explanation IMO.
2586. will40
track shifted east
2587. LargoFl
2588. SLU
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

Defying all odds.
2589. Dakster
Quoting 2578. nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 72.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM

Horseshoes and handgrandes LOL


And apparently we can add Hurricanes / Tropical Storms to that.
She is going to Texas Guys to give them much needed rain and then swing northeastward like Carla did and bring us beautiful rain in Southern Illinois. :)

No seriously, she is going west. Way west. This thing is Gulf bound. Will slip just to the north of Jamaica, over Cuba, and hook like Charlie. Obviously it won't pack the punch like Charlie, but will follow a similar track.

Bottom line. This beast has a mind of it's own and defies all models and great minds of NHC forecasters...

Nat
Quoting 2576. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like she is trying to wrap up.



Confounded storm!
I am impress! She continues to defined forecasters and bloggers.
2593. GetReal



Each new frame is getting more interesting, and IMO backs up where these stronger TS force winds are being found by RECON and shore observations.

Chantal continues to breath.
Quoting 2587. LargoFl:

That track is bogus this is going into the gulf of mexico,it being steering by 850 mb flow.

11am
16.5n 72w
45mph
w 29mph
29mph! We can say all we want about shape, disorganized, sloppy and whatnot, but she has some serious energy with her to move at 29mph and still maintain 'TS' characteristics. I'm still waiting to see if she slows and builds back up. With that amount of energy, she could be potent. Be prepared if near the cone.
2597. IKE
CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Quoting 2587. LargoFl:


curiouser and curiouser...
2599. A4Guy
Quoting 2590. SouthernIllinois:
She is going to Texas Guys to give them much needed rain and then swing northeastward like Carla did and bring us beautiful rain in Southern Illinois. :)

No seriously, she is going west. Way west. This thing is Gulf bound. Will slip just to the north of Jamaica, over Cuba, and hook like Charlie. Obviously it won't pack the punch like Charlie, but will follow a similar track.

Bottom line. This beast has a mind of it's own and defies all models and great minds of NHC forecasters...

Nat


"BEAST" - ROFLMAO
2600. 62901IL

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE
ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION
IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3
DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
2601. Dakster
Quoting 2597. IKE:
CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Where did you read that?
2602. will40
Quoting 2597. IKE:
CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


still a rain maker which we dont need
2603. LargoFl
NOTE..the waterspouts noted in this briefing gulf coast.............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MARINERS AND THOSE
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT AND BE PREPARED TO ACT TO
REACH SAFETY IN CASE OF A LANDFALLING WATERSPOUT THREAT.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A COUPLE OF AREA RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE
PRONOUNCED FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

GARCIA
The tchp makes a difference.
Tropical Storm CHANTAL
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM
10:00 AM EST Wed Jul 10
Location: 16.5°N 72.0°W
Moving: W at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

what happern its still a tropical storm
2606. StormWx
Chantal is gone. Lets move on people. Global warming talk anyone? It's pretty hot out today.
2607. IKE

Quoting Dakster:


Where did you read that?
Public advisory.
Quoting 2444. gator23:
Interesting... it seems that folks from Florida are calling for a Florida landfall and folks int he Caymens/Texas are saying west. Location bias is crazy on this blog. Im guilty of it too though.
I dunno. Some of the pple calling 4 the W track are in FL and the Bahamas....
2609. WxLogic
Well... I going to say it... she's pulling a Fay.
Quoting 2597. IKE:
CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Hi Ike,

Glad to see another of The Old Ones still around. How are things in the GOM, feel like regenerating a wave?
Moving west well over 20mph....gonna make fools outta the long range models
Quoting 2601. Dakster:


Where did you read that?


About half way down in the #11 advisory discussion.
Quoting 2609. WxLogic:
Well... I going to say it... she's pulling a Fay.


Or an Ernesto lol.
Quoting 2599. A4Guy:


"BEAST" - ROFLMAO

Me too. Someone earlier used it
Quoting 2599. A4Guy:


"BEAST" - ROFLMAO

You just made me laugh too. Could've used a better word. :)
2615. WxLogic
Quoting 2613. FIUStormChaser:


Or an Ernesto lol.


LOL
Chantal getting severely disrupted is making the storm very shallow.  This should impact the steering currents previously thought to be in play.  My guess is Chantal will stay on a track westward under Cuba and emerge in GOM.  In GOM conditions should be much more favorable for RI. If I am right, what steering currents will impact Chantal in GOM? Where will she go from there?
Quoting 2606. StormWx:
Chantal is gone. Lets move on people. Global warming talk anyone? It's pretty hot out today.

I'm in da mood. LMAO.
2618. IKE

Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Ike,

Glad to see another of The Old Ones still around. How are things in the GOM, feel like regenerating a wave?
Doing good.
I think the NHC is wrong in saying Chantal will degenerate in 24 hrs. I am no expert but I just don't see her degenerating anytime soon.
2620. StormWx
I can tell Chantal has a gentle soul, she never wanted to be a storm, just an open wave. Much more pleasant and pure.
Quoting 2517. Levi32:
Chantal will still have a chance to restrengthen later. If one looks at the visible loop below, the trade winds slow in speed greatly north of 17N west of Chantal, and have started backing from W to WNW in front of her. Once in this region of the NW Caribbean, the low-level flow into the system will then be convergent, meaning air would be piling up and potentially rising. This would be favorable for restrengthening, but then modest upper-level wind shear and interaction with mountainous Cuba would be the negative factors that could potentially kill her off for good. Even beyond that, she may have another chance in the eastern gulf in the face of a retrograding upper low. It's not over, but for now Chantal has ceased to be an immediately significant threat except for heavy rainfall.



I noticed you said 'Eastern GOM'. Does that put all the east coast doom casters to rest now?
If the cone keep moving West, w coast FL may have a direct hit from a, well, low pressure area.

Of course if it moves too far west, it could be a much larger storm.

There was a post way early on, days ago about how Kingston should get ready. I must admit, I never thought that would be an issue, but look now, watches going up for Jamaica.
Memorable facts about Chantal:

Totally unpredictable size and intensity.
Abnormally high pressure vs wind speeds.
Possibly the most disorganized TS on record.
Quoting 2618. IKE:

Doing good.

Zep!! :)
Quoting 2609. WxLogic:
Well... I going to say it... she's pulling a Fay.


As in Fay done away. (sorry about that, don't know what came over me).
2626. 62901IL
Chantal's DOOM:CON for florida is a three by my standards.
Time to move onto the next system....
Quoting 2616. leofarnsworth:
Chantal getting severely disrupted is making the storm very shallow.  This should impact the steering currents previously thought to be in play.  My guess is Chantal will stay on a track westward under Cuba and emerge in GOM.  In GOM conditions should be much more favorable for RI. If I am right, what steering currents will impact Chantal in GOM? Where will she go from there?


Disagree, as noted earlier by Drakeon and many other reliable bloggers, even a tropical wave will feel the northward weakness from the gap in the two highs. None of the reliable models are forecasting this to get into the western gulf at the current time. (Bamm and Clips are not reliable models).
Quoting 2627. SouthernIllinois:
Time to move onto the next system....

Nope,still a ts right now.
It will have 12HR on water so maybe it can get back up to TS before S FL
C'mon Dr. Masters, put up a new update. Can't wait!! lol
2632. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think the NHC is wrong in saying Chantal will degenerate in 24 hrs. I am no expert but I just don't see her degenerating anytime soon.


Hey Scott, good to see you old friend. Looks like you wont be hit in Central Florida now, i'm sure thats killing you! Don't worry son, it could always make it into the gulf and then turn east in FL. Maybe you should make a call into NWS Melbourne and give them your update, they could very well change their mind! Have a great day, sir.
Quoting 2623. RTSplayer:
Memorable facts about Chantal:

Totally unpredictable size and intensity.
Abnormally high pressure vs wind speeds.
Possibly the most disorganized TS on record.


Not too shabby for a premature cape verde system.
I think this maybe RI down the road.
Previous forecast had it at 17.7n and 72.3w at this time, so they were off by 85 miles on a 12 hour forecast.
Quoting 2619. StormTrackerScott:
I think the NHC is wrong in saying Chantal will degenerate in 24 hrs. I am no expert but I just don't see her degenerating anytime soon.



You are a typical FL wish caster. Look at all your "sound the alarm" posts lol
2637. 62901IL
Quoting 2634. Camille33:
I think this maybe RI down the road.

Unlikely. Chantal is barely organized enough to be a 45mph TS.
Chantal is no doubt in an astonishing hurry to go ... "somewhere."

Seems to me the ULL nearing/over SE Florida is an awfully big piece of this puzzle. Unless Chantal degenerates into a wave and essentially steams westward, she's got to start dealing with the ULL very soon, I would think.

Here's to not having Chantal knock all the fruit off my loaded trees in a few days!!!....
2639. Dakster
Quoting 2626. 62901IL:
Chantal's DOOM:CON for florida is a three by my standards.


Out of 1,000, with 1,000 being a Hurricane Andrew type event.
Well well well what do we have here? Looks like Chantal is still putting up a fight, despite all the unfavorable conditions, CLLJ and Westerly Wind Shear.





2642. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Time to move onto the next system....


You took the words right out of my mouth. It's like you were in my head. Get out of my head!
: )


Results for Provo, TCI (21.78N, 72.27W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.6N, 74.4W or about 319.4 miles (514.1 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 8 hours and 5 minutes from now (Wednesday, July 10 at 7:18PM EDT).
2644. 62901IL
Quoting 2639. Dakster:


Out of 1,000, with 1,000 being a Hurricane Andrew type event.

Can you be more specific as to your standards?
2645. LargoFl
PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. CHANTAL...IN THE FORM OF A DEPRESSION OR
POSSIBLY AN OPEN WAVE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA ON THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NOW IS AN EXCELLENT TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTION
PLAN...AND GATHER ANY REMAINING SUPPLIES FOR YOUR HURRICANE KIT
THAT YOU MIGHT STILL NEED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI
Link
I see 2 Hurricane Alicia analogs maybe go to texas down the road....
2647. wpb
Quoting 2627. SouthernIllinois:
Time to move onto the next system....
YES
2648. MTWX
My 2 cents:

Chantal is going to continue WNW and squeeze between Jamaica and Cuba. then start her turn north through central Cuba. US landfall along the Big Bend/Panhandle area of FL.

Reasoning:

storm will remain weak enough to not be picked up by the trough. As sheer relaxes north of Cuba and the High builds in from the east, she will gain latitude, but not really recurve.

Estimated FL landfall strength: 65-70 MPH TS

Quoting 2611. RitaEvac:
Moving west well over 20mph....gonna make fools outta the long range models


It appears everybody has abandoned Chantal.... so I guess she's ours now? I'm putting her into Kenedy County as a strong Cat 1.. that way everybody gets some.
2650. wpb
Quoting 2645. LargoFl:
PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. CHANTAL...IN THE FORM OF A DEPRESSION OR
POSSIBLY AN OPEN WAVE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA ON THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NOW IS AN EXCELLENT TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTION
PLAN...AND GATHER ANY REMAINING SUPPLIES FOR YOUR HURRICANE KIT
THAT YOU MIGHT STILL NEED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI
should never write that for this system
2651. 62901IL
Quoting 2648. MTWX:
My 2 cents:

Chantal is going to continue WNW and squeeze between Jamaica and Cuba. then start her turn north through central Cuba. US landfall along the Big Bend/Panhandle area of FL.

Reasoning:

storm will remain weak enough to not be picked up by the trough. As sheer relaxes north of Cuba and the High builds in from the east, she will gain latitude, but not really recurve.

Estimated FL landfall strength: 65-70 MPH TS


Wishcaster...go look at NHC.
P.s. Anybody got a vapor loop? What I can see of the new wave off Africa, shows plenty of circular banding.
Quoting 2641. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well well well what do we have here? Looks like Chantal is still putting up a fight, despite all the unfavorable conditions, CLLJ and Westerly Wind Shear.







Well, the map does show 5kt decreasing shear tendency in the area Chantal is entering.
The next AOI:



Also this wave nearing Senegal needs to be watched as it may combine or give energy to the wave in front of it.

The NHC just said she is still a storm... while you guys are saying move on to the next one, she is blowing up convection and still fighting to restrengthen. Conditions are awful for her, and she is ragged as heck, but what is there to move on to? There is currently a TS moving towards land. Just because it is frustrating let's not ignore the fact that she is still here. She continues to surprise, just let it play out and cut the crap about her being dead. NHC JUST SAID SHE IS NOT
2657. Dakster
Quoting 2644. 62901IL:

Can you be more specific as to your standards?


Not really, you know I don't have standards.. wait... that came out wrong.

I have standards, their low, but I have them.

My only point was that I don't think that Florida will be wiped off the face of the Earth by Chantal - unless something changes. That is the wonderful thing about weather, always 'subject to change'.

I really don't think the current cone and strength is going to hold. By hold, I mean strength could go up or down and track will change.
2658. FL1980
Here is Joe Bastard's take on Chantal..

"disagree with NHC. If this makes it across, should redevelop.warm water, trough splitting, favorable MJO all better in sw atl, not carribean"
2659. 62901IL
Quoting 2657. Dakster:


Not really, you know I don't have standards.. wait... that came out wrong.

I have standards, their low, but I have them.

My only point was that I don't think that Florida will be wiped off the face of the Earth by Chantal - unless something changes. That is the wonderful thing about weather, always 'subject to change'.

I really don't think the current cone and strength is going to hold. By hold, I mean strength could go up or down and track will change.

My forecast:
INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Quoting 2655. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The next AOI:



Also this wave nearing Senegal needs to be watched as it may combine or give energy to the wave in front of it.

im not sure why they haven't mentioned it yet looks pretty good to me.
I reckon the doc will be on soon to straighten everyone out. Probably add a little blurb about climate change just to rev the blog up a tad.
Doing good now

2663. 7544
wow the cmc was frist to show whatever chantel is left of her going north to cuba and upo to the tip of fla now i see every model follows that run and even the nhc cone interesting could the cmc be right on how strong and fast she redeveloped
Quoting 2623. RTSplayer:
Memorable facts about Chantal:

Totally unpredictable size and intensity.
Abnormally high pressure vs wind speeds.
Possibly the most disorganized TS on record.
!


I might add:

4) Formed during, strengthened in, and currently maintains avg ~25kts fwd speed!

5) Overcame SAL during X-Atl. transit and formation!

6) ALL in Early July!

I've never seen one do that before!
Quoting 2642. StormWx:


You took the words right out of my mouth. It's like you were in my head. Get out of my head!

Get oughta mine then! :P
Wow, I certainly missed a lot regarding Chantal.
Quoting 2499. RitaEvac:


We're becoming a burnt crisp as cracks are widening and opening near foundations of homes, crape-myrtles are drooping and dying, grass is dying, detention ponds are down 3 feet


I have been faring a bit better, RitaEvac. I have managed to get some rains when most areas around me have not. I have not fared as well over the past couple of weeks and, as the temperatures of a Texas summer begin to rise again, I am seeing the beginnings of lower soil moisture content. When I last mowed the yard, the dust was becoming apparent. .. Also, I have had a bumper crop of poison ivy this year. Now all I need is a good market for it. Even at a dollar a bushel, I can make some real money here. :) ... Any buyers???
I guess as long as it stays small circulation and moves so fast, its the best you could hope for Haiti avoiding any sort of flood disasters. Typically, a storm would be like twice the size and moving half the speed in this area.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2670. MTWX
Quoting 2651. 62901IL:

Wishcaster...go look at NHC.


I know what the NHC says... I just don't agree with their forecast.

And how the heck is that wishcasting??
2671. Dakster
Quoting 2658. FL1980:
Here is Joe Bastard's take on Chantal..

"disagree with NHC. If this makes it across, should redevelop.warm water, trough splitting, favorable MJO all better in sw atl, not carribean"


While I find your name quoting funny. It's Bastardi. I believe he knows who his mother is.
Quoting 2648. MTWX:
My 2 cents:

Chantal is going to continue WNW and squeeze between Jamaica and Cuba. then start her turn north through central Cuba. US landfall along the Big Bend/Panhandle area of FL.

Reasoning:

storm will remain weak enough to not be picked up by the trough. As sheer relaxes north of Cuba and the High builds in from the east, she will gain latitude, but not really recurve.

Estimated FL landfall strength: 65-70 MPH TS

Quoting 2634. Camille33:
I think this maybe RI down the road.
Quoting 2616. leofarnsworth:
Chantal getting severely disrupted is making the storm very shallow.  This should impact the steering currents previously thought to be in play.  My guess is Chantal will stay on a track westward under Cuba and emerge in GOM.  In GOM conditions should be much more favorable for RI. If I am right, what steering currents will impact Chantal in GOM? Where will she go from there?




Guys stop this, GOM is not in play your just creating over-hype, quit the wishcasting lets get back to reality thank you.
I should get points for being prescient (#2661).
Hurricane Central %u200F@twc_hurricane 1m
Tropical Storm Watch issued for #Jamaica. That said, #Chantal is forecast to fizzle sometime in the next 24 hours. Link
I like what the CMC is doing
I find it interesting that some members are worried about a wave that the NHC has not circled, is several days from habitable areas, and models don't seem to develop intensely for some time......yet have completely written off a tropical storm that has defied logic and still maintains tropical storm status.

NHC may say it is going to be a wave soon, but they have been wrong in the past.

back to lurk.

MT out
Quoting 2659. 62901IL:

My forecast:
INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Have one problem,35kts isn't 45mph,it's 40mph.
2678. eddye
chantal is really blowing up
2679. FL1980
Quoting 2671. Dakster:


While I find your name quoting funny. It's Bastardi. I believe he knows who his mother is.


Totally, a typo. My mistake.
Water vapor shows there is some upper level outflow on the NW quadrant, but I think that is enhanced by the ULL and the topography of DR and Haiti.

You can see on water vapor where it sort of blasts away the dry air around it, as well as other moisture streams in the vicinity, so that shows some outflow is present and formed in the past several frames.
Good morning everyone. I for one am not discounting Chantal.Eventhough she looks rough, there is always the possibility of restrenghthen ( I know I didn't spell that right lol)Chantal is anything but an average storm.She has proved that through her journey.These are the ones you really have to watch.She has her sight set on something, just don't know what,but just be cautious in disregarding her.
Quoting 2632. StormWx:


Hey Scott, good to see you old friend. Looks like you wont be hit in Central Florida now, i'm sure thats killing you! Don't worry son, it could always make it into the gulf and then turn east in FL. Maybe you should make a call into NWS Melbourne and give them your update, they could very well change their mind! Have a great day, sir.
I'm for Florida and not wishcasting at all but I fully agreed with StormTrackerScott,I'm not expert but I expent the last 25 years studying hurricanes,and we I see a very persistent!! system like Chantal,they usually don't died easy,they are fighters storms for what ever reason mother nature should know!!,but just look how she looks last night and how she looks now!!!even the Hurricane Center was surprised to find a close circulation,this could be a Hurricane once it get North of Cuba,and I will safe this post to re-post it at a later time.
2683. auburn
You folks do know there is a new blog right?
Quoting 2683. auburn:
You folks do know there is a new blog right?
NO.
Now if Chantal was to RI, that ironically will probably be the death of her by my reckoning.  RI means a trip to the mountains...RIP. But I still contend if she drops to a wave, she will go west of all the models and end up in GOM where she could RI.
Quoting 2616. leofarnsworth:
Chantal getting severely disrupted is making the storm very shallow.  This should impact the steering currents previously thought to be in play.  My guess is Chantal will stay on a track westward under Cuba and emerge in GOM.  In GOM conditions should be much more favorable for RI. If I am right, what steering currents will impact Chantal in GOM? Where will she go from there?