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Toronto Deluged With its All-Time Record 1-Day Rainfall

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2013

Torrential rains from a series of "training" thunderstorms that moved over the same location brought Toronto, Canada its heaviest 1-day rainfall in recorded history on Monday, July 8. Toronto's Pearson Airport recorded 126 mm (4.96") of rain, beating Toronto's previous all-time rainiest day record set on October 15, 1954, from the remnants of Hurricane Hazel, when 121.4 mm (4.78") fell. Weather records at the airport go back to 1937. According to meteorologist Rob Davis with the Weather Network, the 97 mm (3.82") that fell in downtown Toronto yesterday was the 2nd greatest 1-day rainfall since 1840. The only greater amount fell on July 27, 1897. Yesterday's storms knocked out power to over 300,000 customers in the city and crippled transportation.


Figure 1. Cars stranded on the #DVP, one of Toronto's busiest highways on Monday, July 8, 2013. Photo posted to Twitter by Michelle Shephard@shephardm.


Figure 2. Radar image taken at the height of Toronto's day of record rain on July 8, 2013, showing a line of heavy thunderstorms to the northwest of the city about to move to the southeast over Toronto, bringing several hours of heavy rain.

Canada has taken a beating from extreme weather this year. Less than a month ago, massive flooding hit the city of Calgary, Alberta, creating a $3 billion flood disaster. This was the most expensive flood in Canadian history, and third most expensive natural disaster of any kind for the country. The only more expensive disasters were a 1989 wildfire ($4.2 billion in 1989 dollars) and a 1977 drought ($3 billion in 1977 dollars.) It's also been a bad fire season in Canada. According to an email I received from Yan Boulanger of Ressources Naturelles Canada, Canadian Forest Service, a fire that has consumed about 500,00 hectares (1,235,000 acres) in Eastmain, Quebec is the biggest fire in Quebec's recent history, from 1959 onward.

Some rather remarkable Toronto flooding photos are posted at the Weather Network.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. allancalderini:
Chantal may very well become our first hurricane of the season if she continues to strength.

She just might. Even a measley 75mph storm will satisfy me.
The Global Hazards update has Tropical Cyclone formation shaded in MDR for week one.

I do believe it is becoming clearer that Chantal will eventually turn back west towards the SE United States. Where is the question.
Did I hear a ballon pop at 200?
Quoting 488. Patrap:

I that Chantal will take track similar to the BAMS CLP and CLP5 shows
Quoting 505. unknowncomic:
Did I hear a ballon pop at 200?

No you didn't.
Quoting 503. Tropicsweatherpr:
The Global Hazards update has Tropical Cyclone formation shaded in MDR for week one.

I think that is the respond to the Future Dorian.
GFS shows an anticyclone developing over future 96L the chances of dorian developing are much higher than if it doesnt
Quoting 504. AllStar17:
I do believe it is becoming clearer that Chantal will eventually turn back west towards the SE United States. Where is the question.


Anywhere from FL to GA/SC border is most likely. IF she survives her trip over the mountains that is....
Quoting 501. nrtiwlnvragn:
Pretty big shift towards the left.
I think it will turn north a little later and affect the west coast of FL
Quoting 510. nash36:


Anywhere from FL to GA/SC border is most likely. IF she survives her trip over the mountains that is....
That would be a pretty rare landfall wouldn't it, Nash?
Quoting 510. nash36:


Anywhere from FL to GA/SC border is most likely. IF she survives her trip over the mountains that is....

She will. She is not that deep. Storms that are shallow have more of a chance of surviving hispanola.
Quoting 512. MississippiWx:

Pretty huge outflow.
Quoting 511. MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty big shift towards the left.


Yeah, some models are trying to take it south of Hispaniola now or at least on the Western end. Could make a little more sense with her very fast movement and shallow state.
Quoting 511. MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty big shift towards the left.


But no hard left turn except BAMM and BAMS
Quoting 514. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That would be a pretty rare landfall wouldn't it, Nash?


It is an extremely rare landfall area. Most storms come very close, but end up swinging further N and E.
Quoting 521. SFLWeatherman:
WOW

WOW is all i can say.
Chantal seems to be slowing down some, in forward speed.
What do you think it be on the next advisory.
A same
B 70 mph
C 75 mph
D 80 mph
Mine is B or C.
That's a awesome lookin typhoon!
AccuWeather.com ‏@accuweather 3m

On this day in 1990, wind gust of 80 mph swept through Storey County, Nevada. #wxhistory
A track shifted west means Chantal misses the highest mountains of Hispaniola. However, that also means it has to deal with eastern Cuba.

Why does this remind me of Isaac? Lol.
Here is the link to the Puerto Rico doppler radar for the next round..........Clear as a bell at the moment but that will change starting late this evening:

Link
Quoting 518. MississippiWx:


Yeah, some models are trying to take it south of Hispaniola now or at least on the Western end. Could make a little more sense with her very fast movement and shallow state.

That is cause the models are run off the Gfs which is not very good.
Quoting 525. HurricaneAndre:
What do you think it be on the next advisory.
A same
B 70 mph
C 75 mph
D 80 mph

75.
Looking closer to SC to me :(
Quoting 525. HurricaneAndre:
What do you think it be on the next advisory.
A same
B 70 mph
C 75 mph
D 80 mph


Same
Quoting 518. MississippiWx:


Yeah, some models are trying to take it south of Hispaniola now or at least on the Western end. Could make a little more sense with her very fast movement and shallow state.
Quoting 519. nrtiwlnvragn:


But no hard left turn except BAMM and BAMS
Very interesting. Has it [TVCN] scraping along the northeastern Cuban coast and eastern Florida. Interested to see if this is something the models start trending towards as opposed to the hard westward curve they were previously forecasting.

Chantal just becomes a bigger pain in the butt as time goes by.
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)



No longer that west turn except for GFS.
Tracks will keep shifting west resulting in a FL west coast event
going with gfs right up biscayne bay
Quoting 535. MiamiHurricanes09:
Very interesting. Has it scraping along the northeastern Cuban coast and eastern Florida. Interested to see if this is something the models start trending towards as opposed to the hard westward curve they were previously forecasting.

Chantal just becomes a bigger pain in the butt as time goes by.



Chanta the jokeer
looks like chantal is headed my way. I still can't believe they are thinking unfavorable conditions AGAIN after it leaves Cuba and Hati....new models show it may miss the mountains of Hati ....not good because it could become much stronger
Quoting 536. Grothar:
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)




Grothar you nailed this one... I don't like those model shifts nor your prediction. However, I can appreciate your forecasting skills.
Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A track shifted west means Chantal misses the highest mountains of Hispaniola. However, that also means it has to deal with eastern Cuba.

Why does this remind me of Isaac? Lol.


Isaac hmmmmm
Quoting 537. Stormchaser121:

No longer that west turn except for GFS.
Hey hey look who decided to show up and play. The good old UKMET model :)
Quoting 535. MiamiHurricanes09:
Very interesting. Has it scraping along the northeastern Cuban coast and eastern Florida. Interested to see if this is something the models start trending towards as opposed to the hard westward curve they were previously forecasting.

Chantal just becomes a bigger pain in the butt as time goes by.


At this rate, it might go up the Western Coast of FL. Lol.
Quoting 538. RufusBaker:
Tracks will keep shifting west resulting in a FL west coast event


Well, we can all play the guessing game, but they all just shifted east. LOL! It's a crap shoot right now. Models are all over the place from run to run.

Quoting 512. MississippiWx:
A track over the southern tip of DR and over Haiti and into the Windward passage seem more likely although the storm is getting stronger it remain shallow in pressure so a more gradual motion to the NW if so it is the best case senario for the storm. A slow drift after that in much more favorable upper level wind and Florida's East coast is looking at a potential strengthening cyclone very similar to Katrina. 
550. A4Guy
The latest model runs are a dead ringer for Ernesto's track in 2006 (the stom everyone loves to hate).
As with Ernesto...I would bet there is almost no chance this storm will survive a trek across Cuba. If you recall, Ernesto was supposed to cross Cuba, and potentially blow up crossing the very warm waters of the FL straits. What we got instead were some breezy showers that were less exciting than a typical afternoon t-storm.
Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A track shifted west means Chantal misses the highest mountains of Hispaniola. However, that also means it has to deal with eastern Cuba.

Why does this remind me of Isaac? Lol.
LOL, I literally got the exact same impression with the new plots.
Quoting 541. weatherlover94:
looks like chantal is headed my way. I still can't believe they are thinking unfavorable conditions AGAIN after it leaves Cuba and Hati....new models show it may miss the mountains of Hati ....not good because it could become much stronger


unfavorable conditions? i see 5 too 10kt wind shear all a round FL

Quoting 535. MiamiHurricanes09:
Very interesting. Has it [TVCN] scraping along the northeastern Cuban coast and eastern Florida. Interested to see if this is something the models start trending towards as opposed to the hard westward curve they were previously forecasting.

Chantal just becomes a bigger pain in the butt as time goes by.


Nope... it's the models that become a bigger pain in the butt...Chantal already knows where she's going
Quoting 536. Grothar:
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)




What happen to the hook into Florida?
Soulik looks poised to obliterate whatever little island nation to its west.
maybe tropical storm Chantal hit that very warm on the east coast and slow down with a littie storm its will go to a cat 1 hurricane or higher if the wind shear go down watch out!!
Quoting 553. RitaEvac:


Nope... it's the models that become a bigger pain in the butt...Chantal already knows where's she's going
Haha I like that one, Rita.
Quoting 552. Tazmanian:


unfavorable conditions? i see 5 too 10kt wind shear all a round FL


That's currently Taz, They're forecasted to become unfavorable as the Upper low backs to the west and phases with the trough.
Quoting 550. A4Guy:
The latest model runs are a dead ringer for Ernesto's track in 2006 (the stom everyone loves to hate).
As with Ernesto...I would bet there is almost no chance this storm will survive a trek across Cuba. If you recall, Ernesto was supposed to cross Cuba, and potentially blow up crossing the very warm waters of the FL straits. What we got instead were some breezy showers that were less exciting than a typical afternoon t-storm.


If I have to get a storm, I'll take another Ernesto over a Andrew, Katrina, or Wilma.
Quoting 536. Grothar:
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)




Lol, Gro, you may get it (whatever it is at that time) "on top of your house" in Lauderdale. Are you going to stay at home? The excitement may not be good for your heart.
I honestly think the intensity forecast will go DOWN again at 5:00 pm
I thought Haiti was more mountainous that DR.
Quoting 558. TylerStanfield:

That's currently Taz, They're forecasted to become unfavorable as the Upper low backs to the west and phases we trough.




oh ok
What happened to the hard left turn. Now it looks like it's headed to Savannah.
Soulik will be powerful, but expected to weaken considerably before hitting land due to shear. I bet it will still be bad news for a lot of folks.
I think I can safely speak for everyone here when I say I am SURE the good folks of Vero Beach want NOTHING to do with a deepening cyclone.

They got absolutely pounded in 2004.
Quoting 554. ecupirate:


What happen to the hook into Florida?


All of the hookers have left Florida now.

They show a east coast run now.

I guess the weakness is supposed to bigger or have better timing than earlier.
Quoting 560. Grothar:


Ok now im confused again -.-
Quoting 566. hydrus:
Soulik will be powerful, but expected to weaken considerably before hitting land due to shear. I bet it will still be bad news for a lot of folks.

Soulik is headed for DOOM!
Quoting 401. Clearwater1:
I noticed in the TWO 2:05, the track, at the end, has nudged a little closer, to the FL coast. . . indicating that possible left turn, depicted in many models.


They don't change the track at intermediate advisories.
Quoting Grothar:
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)



It seems as if we'll have to pay a little more attention to Chantal here in Jamaica.
Quoting 547. nash36:


Well, we can all play the guessing game, but they all just shifted east. LOL! It's a crap shoot right now. Models are all over the place from run to run.


So is this blog. Wait, Watch, See. You will then know EXACTLY what "Chanta the jokeer" will do.
Quoting 520. SFLWeatherman:
2PM

hey what the hell did I do to NGFDL to get it angry at me

Quoting 524. scott39:
Chantal seems to be slowing down some, in forward speed.

yes it does seem that way
It looks like the position has changed a little bit.
Approaching the anniversary of...

Quoting 558. TylerStanfield:

That's currently Taz, They're forecasted to become unfavorable as the Upper low backs to the west and phases with the trough.


This morning at 5:00 am they where suppose to be FAVORABLE ....now its UNFAVORABLE ?...((scratches head))

Quoting 520. SFLWeatherman:
2PM

No way in this world is this moving North parallel to Florida at least they are adjusted better in the next 48 hours after that its in la la land. Dont pay too much attention to the track past 96 hours and beyond either way it has it shooting the windward passage much better chance of surviving now expect a good shift in the cone at 5pm by the way your cone you had posted earlier may be the very track of the storm. 
Which models are based on the GFS?
Quoting 572. nigel20:

It seems as if we'll have to pay a little more attention to Chantal here in Jamaica.


Yeah Mon.

Better start your preparations. I have mine alphabetically and do them in order.

I have already completed preparations A-G.

With the latest forecast, I will need Preparation H now.
Quoting 557. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Haha I like that one, Rita.
Who were you before again? (:)
582. eddye
ppl join me in tropics chat 2 discuss the ts
Quoting 572. nigel20:

It seems as if we'll have to pay a little more attention to Chantal here in Jamaica.


I think everybody in the Caribbean needs to pay attention to Chantal.
whats the forcast wind shear for the next 24 too 72hrs?
Quoting 536. Grothar:
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)



tight cluster
Quoting 568. Dakster:


All of the hookers have left Florida now.

They show a east coast run now.

I guess the weakness is supposed to bigger or have better timing than earlier.


I have a hard time believing that it will open up enough to get that far north. I would think it would follow the low into Florida.
Quoting 569. weatherlover94:


Ok now im confused again -.-


Sort of a nice break in the day, isn't it. I just wrote on a blog "the models are shifting west".

I don't think they appreciated it, since I was on the antique cars blog.
Quoting 585. lottotexas:

tight cluster


Grothar or the Hurricane Models?
Quoting 585. lottotexas:

tight cluster


Thank you!
Hey all....current models are making this look like an Ernesto type track from my POV...is certainly possible as unless this storm gets deeper soon I don't see much of a northerly component to it's motion yet.
Finally acknowledged an issue:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1819Z TUE JUL 09 2013

NCEP IS AWARE THAT OUR WEB SERVICES AND FTP SERVERS ARE HAVING
CONNECTIVITY ISSUES AT THE CURRENT TIME. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY
INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE. WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM AND
WE WILL INFORM CUSTOMERS ONCE THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED.
Quoting 568. Dakster:


All of the hookers have left Florida now.

They show a east coast run now.

I guess the weakness is supposed to bigger or have better timing than earlier.


Interesting, I thought the economy was improving.
Quoting 577. weatherlover94:


This morning at 5:00 am they where suppose to be FAVORABLE ....now its UNFAVORABLE ?...((scratches head))

They are forecasted to be unfavorable over the next 48 hours as the upper low backs away, then once it gets far enough in distance in about 60 hours it will begin to start ventilating Chantal.




are the waves stalled?
Quoting 586. cruzinstephie:


I have a hard time believing that it will open up enough to get that far north. I would think it would follow the low into Florida.


AS they say, timing is everything.
By no means do I want to see a serious impact, or impact at all for that matter. I still want to stick with my intensity forecast. I now see a chance this goes south of Hispaniola and threads the middle between Cuba and Hispaniola. I think conditions will be Marginally favorable becoming quite favorable. Could see it come in SC Close to where tropical storm Hanna came in. I see it could be a minimal Hurricane of winds between 75-80 mph. IF It slows down it could be higher than that, time will tell. Does anybody agree with this ?
Toronto floods leave hydro system 'hanging by a thread'
Number of customers without power rises to 50,000
CBC News
Posted: Jul 9, 2013 5:43 AM ET / Last Updated: Jul 9, 2013 2:42 PM ET


After Toronto’s record-setting storm, more rain may be on the way
Environment Canada predicts thunderstorms for southern Ontario into tomorrow.

It was the most rain in Toronto’s recorded history — and more might be on the way.

Environment Canada is advising that a few non-severe thunderstorms will likely pop up in southern Ontario during the day.

Overnight, the forecast is anticipating more thunderstorms that could approach severe levels with heavy downpours and strong winds.

And tomorrow, thunderstorms could bring large hail and damaging winds.



18z models seem a lot weaker... makes sense with a more southerly track:

Quoting 586. cruzinstephie:


I have a hard time believing that it will open up enough to get that far north. I would think it would follow the low into Florida.
if it shifts anymore West it will go through Florida north.
Quoting 587. Grothar:


Sort of a nice break in the day, isn't it. I just wrote on a blog "the models are shifting west".

I don't think they appreciated it, since I was on the antique cars blog.


So... I take it there will be more pick-ups and El-caminos with moderate chances of Cadillac convertibles with steer horns on the hood...?
I see a few winds 80 mph on here.
I'm starting to think that tropical forecasting of anything greater than 12 hours in advance is like picking your March madness bracket in December. Hindsight is always 20/20 I guess.
604. MahFL
Quoting 584. Tazmanian:
whats the forcast wind shear for the next 24 too 72hrs?


Currently shear all along the path of Chantal is diminishing.



It's going to be a very long 48 hours for everyone waiting to see what happens to Chantal after she clears Hispanola on Thursday............Then it starts all over again with the models re-initializing what is left.

Just too many variables out there to put any real faith in the current model runs which are going to shift back and forth for the time being. We have a general idea of where she might be headed but potential landfall location in the US is the least certain thing at the moment.
Patrap was correct... this ULL is going to wreak havok on all model runs. They will trend E and W as the ULL keeps throwing monkey wrenches into the fire. So we have to depend on an ULL and High Pressure kick ins after a front........... good luck with that.
Quoting 604. MahFL:


Currently shear all along the path of Chantal is diminishing.






ok
Quoting 561. barbamz:


Lol, Gro, you may get it (whatever it is at that time) "on top of your house" in Lauderdale. Are you going to stay at home? The excitement may not be good for your heart.


I never leave for a hurricane. I have a full built-in generator and the house is totally shuddered with a reinforced roof. Even though I am on an island, we are 30 feet high and the house was built 12 feet higher than that. Although I do scream until it is over.
Quoting 595. Dakster:


AS they say, timing is everything.


Very true and I very much hope it has terrible timing! I had Francis and Jeanne eye's pass over my house 3 weeks apart from each other and then got a nasty kick from Wilma once it crossed the state in 2005. I really don't want to be in the strike zone no matter how week it is. :-(
Quoting 602. hurricanes2018:
I see a few winds 80 mph on here.
Quoting 602. hurricanes2018:
I see a few winds 80 mph on here.
I would not eve pay attention to that as the winds are already 55 and not 45.
Quoting 611. Grothar:


I never leave for a hurricane. I have a full built-in generator and the house is totally shuddered with a reinforced roof. Even though I am on an island, we are 30 feet high and the house was built 12 feet higher than that. Although I do scream until it is over.

aaaaaaaaaah!
Quoting 604. MahFL:


Currently shear all along the path of Chantal is diminishing.





That's just shear madness. And not good at all.

Quoting 593. TylerStanfield:

They are forecasted to be unfavorable over the next 48 hours as the upper low backs away, then once it gets far enough in distance in about 60 hours it will begin to start ventilating Chantal.
As it goes towards Hispanoila shear may increase to over 20kts then as the ULL moves west in about 48-72 hours will ventilate the storm as it approaches the Bahamas and the storm will slow down thus could intensify to a hurricane east of Florida. I would throw these run out the window and they will likely change as well they seem to get it right through 48 hours and then go into la la land.
Quoting 600. stormchaser19:
Looking for trends we will see if this will shift more towards the left as time goes on. That Bermuda High may push Chantal as far west as it can.
Quoting 596. weatherlover94:
By no means do I want to see a serious impact, or impact at all for that matter. I still want to stick with my intensity forecast. I now see a chance this goes south of Hispaniola and threads the middle between Cuba and Hispaniola. I think conditions will be Marginally favorable becoming quite favorable. Could see it come in SC Close to where tropical storm Hanna came in. I see it could be a minimal Hurricane of winds between 75-80 mph. IF It slows down it could be higher than that, time will tell. Does anybody agree with this ?


I am having a difficult time seeing Chantal getting enough latitude to be a Savannah/Charleston event. Not that it can't happen, but it would take alot of weak steering meandering OR her forward motion to be fast enough to push NWD into the weakness before the ridge builds back over top. I'm leaning towards a ECFL/NEFL landfall for now.

One thing is certain: There will be a landfall. The synoptic pattern this year is not good.
This is a little strange but notice the little hole (warmer clouds tops) in this infrared animated image around 63.3 W and 15.0 N. Notice it takes upon a circular shape and does not move in tandem with the cyclone but rather is stationary or drifts very slightly southwest. Weird. Or my eyes are playing tricks with me and that wouldn't be the first time. :)

Quoting 604. MahFL:


Currently shear all along the path of Chantal is diminishing.





Usually I NEVER disagree with the NHC but this time I am. this picture proves why. As fast as Chantal is moving upper level winds are going to have to increase in a hurry to make the storm weaken like they are forecasting
Quoting 575. 62901IL:
It looks like the position has changed a little bit.


If you go to this LINK, which is the satellite loop from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), you will see a pink line that represents the NHC forecast. The line moves as the NHC plot changes.

You can also go to the NHC's CHANTAL Graphics Archive and see a loop of the cone/track.
Chantal is predicted to go about 111 miles south of us on St. Croix in about 10 hours, so far it is still clear, but looking at the Satellite photos, I think we are going to get slapped pretty good.
Quoting Dakster:


Yeah Mon.

Better start your preparations. I have mine alphabetically and do them in order.

I have already completed preparations A-G.

With the latest forecast, I will need Preparation H now.

Lol!
Quoting AztecCe:


I think everybody in the Caribbean needs to pay attention to Chantal.

Yes indeed! I know that many Jamaicans would quiver in fear, if Chantal gets closer to us...The eastern end of Jamaica (Porland, St Thomas and St Mary) is still recovering from hurricane Sandy.
When does a REED alert get issued?
Quoting 616. Hurricanes305:

As it goes towards Hispanoila shear may increase to over 20kts then as the ULL moves west in about 48-72 hours will ventilate the storm as it approaches the Bahamas and the storm will slow down thus could intensify to a hurricane east of Florida. I would throw these run out the window and they will likely change as well they seem to get it right through 48 hours and then go into la la land.

I'm not going to be looking at the model runs today to get anything useful, I'm only going to be looking at them for Amusement. Going to be an interesting next 7 days.
Quoting 587. Grothar:


Sort of a nice break in the day, isn't it. I just wrote on a blog "the models are shifting west".

I don't think they appreciated it, since I was on the antique cars blog.


LOL. Maybe only the antique car owners who happen to live in Florida.
Quoting 575. 62901IL:
It looks like the position has changed a little bit.
You will have to wait until the 5:00 oclock.... Nothing will change in the track until 5:00 and 11:00...AM & PM
Quoting 611. Grothar:


I never leave for a hurricane. I have a full built-in generator and the house is totally shuddered with a reinforced roof. Even though I am on an island, we are 30 feet high and the house was built 12 feet higher than that. Although I do scream until it is over.


I'm relieved to hear that. But now, lol, you may add a live streaming video cam on top of your reinforced roof, directed to sky, so that we abroad may follow what's happening, please :)
Quoting 543. Dakster:


Grothar you nailed this one... I don't like those model shifts nor your prediction. However, I can appreciate your forecasting skills.


Why thank you. I take back almost everything I thought of you. :)
The 4 current players that will influence Chantal's track:
1) ULL
2) Bermuda High
3) Short Wave
4) Land Interaction
Feel free to add more.
Quoting 620. weatherlover94:


Usually I NEVER disagree with the NHC but this time I am. this picture proves why. As fast as Chantal is moving upper level winds are going to have to increase in a hurry to make the storm weaken like they are forecasting


Remember that even the NHC admits that they have little skill in forecasting instensity. Their average error is two categories in either direction. There is a BIG difference between dissipated and Cat 2.
Quoting 628. barbamz:


I'm relieved to hear that. But now, lol, you may add a live streaming video cam on top of your reinforced roof, directed to heaven, so that we abroad may follow what's happening, please :)

Yeah, gro. PLEASE!!!
Quoting 624. Dakster:
When does a REED alert get issued?
LMAO
I don't think Chantal is a hurricane yet but it's only 9 mph shy of being one and it's well on it's way
Quoting 625. TylerStanfield:

I'm not going to be looking at the model runs today to get anything useful, I'm only going to be looking at them for Amusement. Going to be an interesting next 7 days.
7 days??? I think not
Right now the ULL and the eventually interaction with the terrain of Hispaniola (or even extreme eastern Cuba now) are two big factors with Chantal. The land and potential rugged terrain she may have to cross will have a huge impact on her strength and even her size as well. If she emerges relatively healthy on the lee side of the island(s), then the land interaction might work to drag more moisture into her circulation and thus expand her wind field. We saw this with IKE I think. Or she can shed some of that moisture field when she crosses a tall range of mountains. We shall see...

Natalie
Quoting 630. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The 4 current players that will influence Chantal's track:
1) ULL
2) Bermuda High
3) Short Wave
4) Land Interaction
Feel free to add more.

Think you covered them!!
Wow! Dramatic shift to the East on this model map:

Quoting 605. weathermanwannabe:
It's going to be a very long 48 hours for everyone waiting to see what happens to Chantal after she clears Hispanola on Thursday............Then it starts all over again with the models re-initializing what is left.

Just too many variables out there to put any real faith in the current model runs which are going to shift back and forth for the time being. We have a general idea of where she might be headed but potential landfall location in the US is the least certain thing at the moment.
It seem it will go over less land and enter the windward passage it has a much better chance hold together if that is the case. 
SPSMFL from 7/9/2013 2:53 PM to 3:15 PM EDT for Palm Beach County: A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTYFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.
642. MahFL
I see some collapsing thunderstorms on the west side of Chantal.
Quoting 623. nigel20:

Lol!

Yes indeed! I know that many Jamaicans would quiver in fear, if Chantal gets closer to us...The eastern end of Jamaica (Porland, St Thomas and St Mary) is still recovering from hurricane Sandy.

I'm sure Eastern Cuba is also still recovering From Sandy as well. It was a Rapidly Intensifying Category 3 when it hit them.
Quoting 631. Dakster:


Remember that even the NHC admits that they have little skill in forecasting instensity. Their average error is two categories in either direction. There is a BIG difference between dissipated and Cat 2.



I agree. I however think they should not call for weakening at the end of day 5 just yet.
Quoting 601. MechEngMet:


So... I take it there will be more pick-ups and El-caminos with moderate chances of Cadillac convertibles with steer horns on the hood...?


:)
Quoting 536. Grothar:
This is the biggest shift yet. Looks very similar to what I wrote 3 days ago. :):):)




SHIFT happens.... I hope.

: )
Quoting 617. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looking for trends we will see if this will shift more towards the left as time goes on. That Bermuda High may push Chantal as far west as it can.

And you gotta remember with Ike...they said FLorida at one point but the high pushed it west. Maybe a similar situation here.
ISAAC
Might we see an NHC cone shift toward the East as well at 5pm or will they wait until 8pm if they still see a trend?
Quoting 611. Grothar:


I never leave for a hurricane. I have a full built-in generator and the house is totally shuddered with a reinforced roof. Even though I am on an island, we are 30 feet high and the house was built 12 feet higher than that. Although I do scream until it is over.
Quoting 611. Grothar:


I never leave for a hurricane. I have a full built-in generator and the house is totally shuddered with a reinforced roof. Even though I am on an island, we are 30 feet high and the house was built 12 feet higher than that. Although I do scream until it is over.
Gro.I have never left either...But Wilma had me saying 247 times.. Oh S**T, Oh S**T...etc,etc,etc
I posted this earlier, but Chantal is starting to remind me of:

Quoting 632. 62901IL:

Yeah, gro. PLEASE!!!


I will try.
Quoting 646. CaicosRetiredSailor:


SHIFT happens.... I hope.

: )


As long as it isn't 5hit happens, I am ok with that.
Some stayed for Andrew and spent many a Hour in tubs and in closets I heard too.

Quoting 648. SFLWeatherman:

OK, what was the point of posting that?
657. 900MB
Quoting 630. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The 4 current players that will influence Chantal's track:
1) ULL
2) Bermuda High
3) Short Wave
4) Land Interaction
Feel free to add more.


My question is, will fast speed over land lessen the impact?
Quoting 653. Grothar:


I will try.

Thank you thank you thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 639. hurricanejunky:
Wow! Dramatic shift to the East on this model map:



It is sad knowing that they will suffer in Haiti soon.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON SOULIK (T1307)
3:00 AM JST July 10 2013
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soulik (935 hPa) located at 20.7N 137.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.8N 132.0E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Japan
48 HRS: 23.0N 127.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 25.2N 122.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
Just what we need, Betsy's younger cousin Chantal to come roaring thru town.
Quoting 655. Patrap:
Some stayed for Andrew and spent many a Hour in tubs and in closets I heard too.
Correct
CRAS 84 hours.

72 hours.
Quoting 634. weatherlover94:
I don't think Chantal is a hurricane yet but it's only 9 mph shy of being one and it's well on it's way

Yeah, except for the fact that it has no developing eyewall and convectively, its a huge mess, with no really significant banding features or a well developed CDO... Chantal is about equal to a circulation with a mess of convection sitting on top of it with winds of 65 mph. What a mess.
Yeah, the NHC track is by far the Eastern outlier now. Lol.

Quoting 657. 900MB:


My question is, will fast speed over land lessen the impact?


It can. Will be interesting to see if the combination of speed and land interaction caused a decoupling of MLC and LLC. That would be ballgame.
well folks im headed to my swimming pool....catch up with you guys in a couple hours
Quoting 655. Patrap:
Some stayed for Andrew and spent many a Hour in tubs and in closets I heard too.


Some were torn limb from limb and scattered in little pieces all across the county too.
Quoting 639. hurricanejunky:
Wow! Dramatic shift to the East on this model map:


Nope 18z I just looked have actually come westward tpc now east of consensus.
Quoting 640. Hurricanes305:

It seem it will go over less land and enter the windward passage it has a much better chance hold together if that is the case. 


That's another "wobble" related variable we often see when some of these storms have threaded the needle through the Windward, Mona, or Yucatan passages/channel.

Much easier to deal with (model wise) a high grade-TS or hurricane than a weaker type system......Very frustrating at best.
Latest computer models make much more sense to me. As we get closer to the weekend, we should see a more accurate picture and more consensus. I get the feeling that htis will be a SC event.
Looking more and more like a SOUTH (you happy Presslord) Carolina landfall or maybe as far south as Savannah GA to me. Though that statement doesn't hold much water until we see where she crosses either Hispaniola or Cuba and also how she looks then. In the short term I still think she'll miss the DR altogether and either cross the southwest tip of Haiti or moves through the Windward Passage nearing extreme eastern Cuba.
Quoting 664. TylerStanfield:

Yeah, except for the fact that it has no developing eyewall and convectively, its a huge mess, with no really significant banding features or a well developed CDO... Chantal is about equal to a circulation with a mess of convection sitting on top of it with winds of 65 mph. What a mess.
it wouldn't take much for it to become a hurricane.. a 10 mph increase in its winds.... with the tradewinds increasing the winds, itspossible
Quoting 668. Dakster:


Some were torn limb from limb and scattered in little pieces all across the county too.
Correct
679. 900MB
Not to be one of those Texas sized wish casters, but wondering what the odds are of Chantal making it up the East Coast?

Quoting 619. SouthernIllinois:
This is a little strange but notice the little hole (warmer clouds tops) in this infrared animated image around 63.3 W and 15.0 N. Notice it takes upon a circular shape and does not move in tandem with the cyclone but rather is stationary or drifts very slightly southwest. Weird. Or my eyes are playing tricks with me and that wouldn't be the first time. :)

It has decreased in speed based on the latest satellite track it is finally hit the ridge 1016 mb. and even though cloud tops are warmer its increasing in size.  
Quoting 671. hurricane23:


Nope 18z I just looked have actually come westward tpc now east of consensus.


Think he's referring to landfall on US. Models have definitely shifted west in the short term, east in the long term. Appears that the trough might be slower than originally thought. Would allow Chantal to stay in Caribbean longer, but keep her from going into the Gulf. Westward bend occurs later right into SE coast of Georgia/SC.


72 hour track forecast
Quoting 651. PalmBeachWeather:
Gro.I have never left either...But Wilma had me saying 247 times.. Oh S**T, Oh S**T...etc,etc,etc


I have a pretty deep voice, but during Andrew I think I hit "High C" a few times.
Quoting 630. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The 4 current players that will influence Chantal's track:
1) ULL
2) Bermuda High
3) Short Wave
4) Land Interaction
Feel free to add more.
5. Trough. with two upper lows pinching off to make forecasting even more difficult.
Quoting 669. washingaway:


I really like the BAMD model for it's excentricity, lol (saw it on model overviews from Gro earlier, too).
Quoting 617. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looking for trends we will see if this will shift more towards the left as time goes on. That Bermuda High may push Chantal as far west as it can.

agreed
Quoting 676. weatherh98:
it wouldn't take much for it to become a hurricane.. a 10 mph increase in its winds.... with the tradewinds increasing the winds, itspossible

It isn't just winds that a storm needs to become a hurricane! It also would need a closed eyewall, which there isn't even any evidence that it is trying to build one.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I'm sure Eastern Cuba is also still recovering From Sandy as well. It was a Rapidly Intensifying Category 3 when it hit them.

Yeah, there have been quite a few strong hurricanes that have made impact on Cuba over the last 4 years or so...Gustav, Ike, Paloma, Sandy...etc.
Quoting 650. hurricanejunky:
Might we see an NHC cone shift toward the East as well at 5pm or will they wait until 8pm if they still see a trend?

Don't they only do the track updates every six hours? If so, they would issue the new track at the 10 PM EDT update. But I think they would wait to see if the 18Z models runs verify what the 12Z did and then issue any changes to the track tonight at the 10 PM EDT update. Just my thought.
Quoting 687. TylerStanfield:

It isn't just winds that a storm needs to become a hurricane! It also would need a closed eyewall, which there isn't even any evidence that it is trying to build one.

Ok, maybe we are all wrong about it making a run at hurricane status.
Western Atlantic - Visible Loop

click image for Loop

Click ZOOM to zoom in on the Fla ULL

Quoting 683. Grothar:


I have a pretty deep voice, but during Andrew I think I hit "High C" a few times.


You should leave it to the "fat lady singing" herself, lol. - May you please add an online streaming in-room voice recorder to the roof cam, too?? :)
Quoting 687. TylerStanfield:

It isn't just winds that a storm needs to become a hurricane! It also would need a closed eyewall, which there isn't even any evidence that it is trying to build one.

No. Just like the line between a tropical depression and a tropical storm, the only difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane are winds. We've seen several Category 1s with exposed centers.
Quoting 687. TylerStanfield:

It isn't just winds that a storm needs to become a hurricane! It also would need a closed eyewall, which there isn't even any evidence that it is trying to build one.


so if the HH goes in and finds 75 mph winds youre saying they shouldn't upgrade it?
Quoting 692. barbamz:


You should leave it to the "fat lady singing" herself, lol. - May you please add an online streaming in-room voice recorder to the roof cam, too?? :)

Yeah, i think that'd be A-OK.,

Quoting 670. SFLWeatherman:
New convection probable getting ready to burst on the NW side for the first time cloud top has warm but you see much better where the COC and how the new thunderstorms to its NW is about to wrap around it. Its starting to get much better looking structurally.
Quoting 655. Patrap:
Some stayed for Andrew and spent many a Hour in tubs and in closets I heard too.



Many folks credit our own Mr. Norcross for saving their lives. It seems astounding to me that despite all the devastation only 6 people died while still in their homes during that storm. Proves that hurricanes (and tornadoes) are survivable even if your house is destroyed.
Quoting 696. Hurricanes305:

New convection probable getting ready to burst on the NW side for the first time cloud top has warm but you see much better where the COC and how the new thunderstorms to its NW is about to wrap around it. Its starting to get much better looking structurally.

Great!
700. 900MB
Quoting 684. hydrus:
5. Trough. with two upper lows pinching off to make forecasting even more difficult.


6. Dry air.
Quoting 698. Patrap:

It's pushing the dry air away!
Quoting Patrap:
Some stayed for Andrew and spent many a Hour in tubs and in closets I heard too.


Hurricane Andrew had one of the most impressive eyewall structure that I've ever seen on radar.
Quoting 684. hydrus:
5. Trough. with two upper lows pinching off to make forecasting even more difficult.
Sounds like the perfect set up for somewhere to get hit that normally doesn't get hit.
Quoting 693. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. Just like the line between a tropical depression and a tropical storm, the only difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane are winds. We've seen several Category 1s with exposed centers.

:( Oh. Well that's stupid. LOL
Quoting 689. SouthernIllinois:

Don't they only do the track updates every six hours? If so, they would issue the new track at the 10 PM EDT update. But I think they would wait to see if the 18Z models runs verify what the 12Z did and then issue any changes to the track tonight at the 10 PM EDT update. Just my thought.


Yes, I think you are exactly right about the NHC procedures. I still think the Bermuda High will push Chantal west around day 4/5 similar to the tracks Katrina/Rita took.
I must say Chantal is beginning to remind me of Issac. I wouldn't be surprised is Chantal goes up the West Coast of FL now.
Chantal is about to get a whole lot uglier.

Note the lower-level outflow boundaries all along the western quadrant.

708. Chigz
12Z EURO and GFS are NOT keen on Chantal - when these two models are in agreement then most likely it's a slam dunk..!
Quoting 698. Patrap:


You can really see it wetting its environment ahead in the water vapor loop.
Some pretty costly rains were happening during the last weeks in the world, that's for sure.

Cost of floods in Toronto likely to exceed the $600-million price tag of 2005 storm
Ann Hui, The Globe and Mail, Published Tuesday, Jul. 09 2013, 2:57 PM EDT

It may be weeks before the full extent of damage from Monday night’s flooding in Toronto is known, but the cost will likely exceed the $600-million hit from the city’s last major storm in 2005, an insurance expert said Tuesday.

Peter Karageorgos of the Insurance Bureau of Canada said that member companies are still in the early stages of assessing damage to homes and cars, and that a full dollar figure will likely not be available for at least a couple of weeks.
Quoting 694. weatherh98:


so if the HH goes in and finds 75 mph winds youre saying they shouldn't upgrade it?

With how messy and crappy looking the storm is right now. I wouldn't.
Quoting 707. MiamiHurricanes09:
Chantal is about to get a whole lot uglier.

Note the lower-level outflow boundaries all along the western quadrant.


Are there any arc-shaped clouds?
Quoting 706. StormTrackerScott:
I must say Chantal is beginning to remind me of Issac. I wouldn't be surprised is Chantal goes up the West Coast of FL now.

So how'd your 60 Mph storm turn out after recon yesterday? And how's your Hurricane you were forecasting for today?
Quoting 707. MiamiHurricanes09:
Chantal is about to get a whole lot uglier.

Note the lower-level outflow boundaries all along the western quadrant.



Those have been there for hours now lol. In fact, they are helping to develop convection out ahead of the center and are acting like convergent bands.
Quoting 683. Grothar:


I have a pretty deep voice, but during Andrew I think I hit "High C" a few times.
Ever see the "Exorcist? That was the voice that came out of my mouth... Tried to turn my head 360 degrees but the hurt like hell... Had a beer instead

Quoting 681. MississippiWx:


Think he's referring to landfall on US. Models have definitely shifted west in the short term, east in the long term. Appears that the trough might be slower than originally thought. Would allow Chantal to stay in Caribbean longer, but keep her from going into the Gulf. Westward bend occurs later right into SE coast of Georgia/SC.
Normally it would make send but for it the parallel the Florida coast all the way up to the Carolina makes no sense. The high this year is too strong for such a thing. Models are messing up big time with its track 72+ hours 
Quoting 715. MississippiWx:


Those have been there for hours now lol. In fact, they are helping to develop convection out ahead of the center and are acting like convergent bands.

Still really, REALLY, ugly.
Quoting 716. PalmBeachWeather:
Ever see the "Exorcist? That was the voice that came out of my mouth... Tried to turn my head 360 degrees but the hurt like hell... Had a beer insteade

Number 716, please do not use profanity.
Quoting 713. TylerStanfield:

So how'd your 60 Mph storm turn out after recon yesterday? And how's your Hurricane you were forecasting for today?


Not good. Very frustrating system here so much so the experts at the NHC can't even keep up.
Guess Who's not eating Crow :)
Quoting 708. Chigz:
12Z EURO and GFS are NOT keen on Chantal - when these two models are in agreement then most likely it's a slam dunk..!
Not really the Euro is performing absolutely horrible it doesn't even initialize a tropical system. Right now a blend between the GFS and CMC seems reasonable.
Quoting 719. 62901IL:

Number 716, please do not use profanity.
You are kidding..Right? Damn rookies
Quoting 711. TylerStanfield:

With how messy and crappy looking the storm is right now. I wouldn't.


well um.. its not up to you:) anyway who knows if they will even find hurricane force
Quoting 712. 62901IL:

Are there any arc-shaped clouds?

Lots of 'em.

Seriously, those are downdraft dominant t-storms near the coc at this time.
Quoting 715. MississippiWx:


Those have been there for hours now lol. In fact, they are helping to develop convection out ahead of the center and are acting like convergent bands.
Yeah I know, from the collapsed ball of thunderstorms that was located east of the Lesser Antilles. These appear to be new downdrafts though.

Quoting 707. MiamiHurricanes09:
Chantal is about to get a whole lot uglier.

Note the lower-level outflow boundaries all along the western quadrant.



I've always learned that outflow boundaries are not a good sign of strengthening. They represent air rushing outward/downward and not representative of good structure for a tropical system.

Am I wrong?
INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 15.8N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 17.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 24.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 26.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
NHC forecast.

INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 15.8N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 17.4N 68.5W 70 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 24.5N 76.0W 50 KT 55 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 26.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
My forecast.
Quoting 720. StormTrackerScott:


Not good. Very frustrating system here so much so the experts at the NHC can't even keep up.

Its okay, I just tried not to jump to conclusions about Chantal being stronger than what it could support. I never really pay attention to Satellite estimates unless recon is not available for a storm.
Quoting 723. PalmBeachWeather:
You are kidding..Right? Damn rookies

No profanity, please.
one of my old friends drove through homestead right after andrew and he told me it was erry and the smell of death was in the air. that was caused by the little critters that did not hunker down, americas history books might of changed if andrew came ashore 30 miles north. that was in late august this is july nothing similiar here
Quoting 720. StormTrackerScott:


Not good. Very frustrating system here so much so the experts at the NHC can't even keep up.


they've done a pretty good job so far
Quoting 726. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I know, from the collapsed ball of thunderstorms that was located east of the Lesser Antilles. These appear to be new downdrafts though.


Looks like they're just sparking new convection to me.
Quoting 727. Sfloridacat5:


I've always learned that outflow boundaries are not a good sign of strengthening. They represent air rushing outward/downward and not representative of good structure for a tropical system.

Am I wrong?
You are not.
Quoting 730. 62901IL:

No profanity, please.
Mind if I bite my tongue?¿
With all the confusion about Chantal I think it might be time for Reed to put out his model run.
Quoting 727. Sfloridacat5:


I've always learned that outflow boundaries are not a good sign of strengthening. They represent air rushing outward/downward and not representative of good structure for a tropical system.

Am I wrong?
Correct; lower-level outflow indicates downdrafts or collapsing thunderstorms...not to be confused with outflow aloft.
Quoting 724. weatherh98:


well um.. its not up to you:) anyway who knows if they will even find hurricane force

Flight level winds were at 80 Mph, but its just frustrating to be considering a storm to get upgraded to a hurricane when the SW side of the center is barely closed and convection is not anywhere close to be organized.
Quoting 736. PalmBeachWeather:
Mind if I bite my tongue?¿

No.
Quoting 719. 62901IL:

Number 716, please do not use profanity.


Go write on the chalkboard, "I will not disrespect my elders, especially the really, really old ones."

One hundred times.

Quoting 713. TylerStanfield:

So how'd your 60 Mph storm turn out after recon yesterday? And how's your Hurricane you were forecasting for today?


I don't know if it is me or not, but you seem to have a problem with Storm Tracker Scott. He was not far off the 60 mph for yesterday and from the looks of it(wind speeds) not far off from that Hurricane prediction for today. I know you want to be right about your ideas for this storm but no reason to berate someone because they don't agree with you!
Quoting 735. seminolesfan:
You are not.


I see you stopped in to check on the weather...
Quoting 720. StormTrackerScott:


Not good. Very frustrating system here so much so the experts at the NHC can't even keep up.


I think we are all overlooking a key rule of thumb: weak tropical cyclones will have a difficult time organizing if they are moving at a very fast pace. It doesn't seem to matter how favorable conditions are.
Quoting 741. mikatnight:


Go write on the chalkboard, "I will not disrespect my elders, especially the really, really old ones."

One hundred times.


Done.
Quoting 730. 62901IL:

No profanity, please.


Where was the profanity in the previous post? I must have missed it.
Quoting 747. Dakster:


Where was the profanity in the previous post? I must have missed it.

723. PalmBeachWeather:
You are kidding..Right? Damn rookies
749. Chigz
Quoting 744. Patrap:


..doesn't look good for Chantal, EURO and GFS may be right afterall
Quoting 742. robintampabay:


I don't know if it is me or not, but you seem to have a problem with Storm Tracker Scott. He was not far off the 60 mph for yesterday and from the looks of it(wind speeds) not far off from that Hurricane prediction for today. I know you want to be right about your ideas for this storm but no reason to berate someone because they don't agree with you!

No I don't Just some friendly competition to see who was going to be right about Chantal. We were both kinda wrong, just how Storm tracking goes. :)
And the snippiness returns to the blog.

Stark reminder to myself why I left the blogs for a long time.
Rapid Scan Loop coming into better view

Link
Quoting 747. Dakster:


Where was the profanity in the previous post? I must have missed it.


What the hell, Dak! You're gonna have to get your damn eyes checked!
Quoting 745. galvestonhurricane:


I think we are all overlooking a key rule of thumb: weak tropical cyclones will have a difficult time organizing if they are moving at a very fast pace. It doesn't seem to matter how favorable conditions are.


At this rate I think we might be dealing with a Gulf system rather than one in the Bahamas. Navgem looks very reasonable.
756. Relix
Quoting 730. 62901IL:

No profanity, please.


Don't be ridiculous.
OK! Calm down! We don't need more bad words!
Quoting 753. mikatnight:


What the hell, Dak! You're gonna have to get your damn eyes checked!


Cute. Now, let's get back on-topic, shall we? Thanks everyone.
759. Relix
..... :p
Quoting 739. TylerStanfield:

Flight level winds were at 80 Mph, but its just frustrating to be considering a storm to get upgraded to a hurricane when the SW side of the center is barely closed and convection is not anywhere close to be organized.


its an oddball to say the least.
Quoting 755. StormTrackerScott:


At this rate I think we might be dealing with a Gulf system rather than one in the Bahamas. Navgem looks very reasonable.

Agreed
Quoting 758. sensitivethug:


Cute. Now, let's get back on-topic, shall we? Thanks everyone.

Yup. Back on topic, guys.
I remember how Issac was supposed to go up the east coast of FL but instead went to NOLA. Sometimes you just never know.
My brain is melting trying to figure out how low level divergence would help to trigger deeper t-storm action... It looks like the outflow boundaries that are being generated are coming from the t-storm activity that is collapsing within the CDO... And as the gust front propagates... Convective activity ahead of the storm is enhanced..... Could someone please... Explain to me... What is going on on the west side of this storm?
Quoting 755. StormTrackerScott:


At this rate I think we might be dealing with a Gulf system rather than one in the Bahamas. Navgem looks very reasonable.

Looks like Either right up the East coast of Florida or a little right or left of that. A track up the West coast of Florida is definitely plausible if the pattern works out just right.
Quoting 755. StormTrackerScott:


At this rate I think we might be dealing with a Gulf system rather than one in the Bahamas. Navgem looks very reasonable.


the ULL would need to be moving out the way about now
Quoting 758. sensitivethug:


Cute. Now, let's get back on-topic, shall we? Thanks everyone.

I like you you say that in such a chilled way unlike some
Quoting 759. Relix:
..... :p
I saw that edit. ;)
Quoting 755. StormTrackerScott:


At this rate I think we might be dealing with a Gulf system rather than one in the Bahamas. Navgem looks very reasonable.


I agree with you although I'm leaning towards Chantal coming up the east coast of Florida then making the turn westward.

Edit: Can someone please post the latest Navgem run?
Quoting 766. TylerStanfield:

Looks like Either right up the East coast of Florida or a little right or left of that. A track up the West coast of Florida is definitely plausible if the pattern works out just right.


I remember when Ivan was forecasted to go right up the spine of Florida. Any chance Chantal actually does that?
One has to remember this is a Phd's entry, respect should always be shown.

When not, well..the Boot will surely follow,esp during a active period.
cloudy and wind shift, but nothing picking up nothing substantial. no big winds.....yet....
Quoting 764. StormTrackerScott:
I remember how Issac was supposed to go up the east coast of FL but instead went to NOLA. Sometimes you just never know.


no it was west coast I remember the republican national convention was supposed to be messed up... but your point remains
Quoting 767. weatherh98:


the ULL would need to be moving out the way about now

It will move or weaken and die when it's time
Quoting 763. 62901IL:

Yup. Back on topic, guys.
Oh heck, Ok durnit...
Quoting 773. stormgirI:
cloudy and wind shift, but nothing picking up nothing substantial. no big winds.....yet....

Where do you live?
Quoting 766. TylerStanfield:

Looks like Either right up the East coast of Florida or a little right or left of that. A track up the West coast of Florida is definitely plausible if the pattern works out just right.


The speed of Chantal is the reason for the shift west in the models and could go even further west.
Quoting 776. PalmBeachWeather:
Oh heck, Ok durnit...

That's better.
Quoting 777. 62901IL:

Where do you live?

5 minutes outside cockburn town, turks.
Quoting 775. wunderkidcayman:

It will move or weaken and die when it's time


Models show the ULL weakening in the eastern Gulf.
Quoting 743. Dakster:


I see you stopped in to check on the weather...


I lurk more than post these days...

Quoting 751. nash36:
And the snippiness returns to the blog.

Stark reminder to myself why I left the blogs for a long time.



...for much the same reason. :)
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models in this chart COMPLETELY changed?

Quoting 751. nash36:
And the snippiness returns to the blog.

Stark reminder to myself why I left the blogs for a long time.


That's why I lurk more than I post now. Seems a lot of the wise and well educated users have been replaced with adolecent kids who have no respect for anyone. Now more than anything I read and pay attention to the guys and gals I know put out good information. This storm has a long way to go and right now it's anybody's guess on exactly what part of the US this storm will affect. Only time will tell.
Quoting 771. Dakster:


I remember when Ivan was forecasted to go right up the spine of Florida. Any chance Chantal actually does that?

Like Weahterh98, the ULL would have to kick it into high gear, and high tail it to the west and get out of the way...
Quoting 771. Dakster:


I remember when Ivan was forecasted to go right up the spine of Florida. Any chance Chantal actually does that?

It could you know a day or two ago I said chantal could be like Ivan in some respect
Quoting 770. galvestonhurricane:


I agree with you although I'm leaning towards Chantal coming up the east coast of Florida then making the turn westward.

Edit: Can someone please post the latest Navgem run?
Link
If Chantal was to slow down it might become a horrific storm.
Quoting 781. stormgirI:

5 minutes outside cockburn town, turks.


I thought we were done with the profanities...

Anyways, hope the storm passes you by with no damage.
I came here for the rhubarb pie and find these shenanigans?!

Unthinkable!

Quoting 713. TylerStanfield:

So how'd your 60 Mph storm turn out after recon yesterday? And how's your Hurricane you were forecasting for today?
the day is not over yet
Quoting 752. nrtiwlnvragn:
Rapid Scan Loop coming into better view

Link

what i was looking for i thank you
Quoting 784. ProgressivePulse:
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models in this chart COMPLETELY changed?



the nhc used to be right on target but not anymore...
Quoting 784. ProgressivePulse:
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models in this chart COMPLETELY changed?



Not deceiving you. West shift in the short term. East/North shift in the landfall. Having said that, you can expect them to bounce around like a 4 year old on Ritalin for the next two days.
Quoting 792. Dakster:


I thought we were done with the profanities...

Anyways, hope the storm passes you by with no damage.

what profanity?
Quoting 784. ProgressivePulse:
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models in this chart COMPLETELY changed?



I think the XTRP has the correct track. Very good consistency from run to run.
Quoting 784. ProgressivePulse:
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models in this chart COMPLETELY changed?


Not much of a Hard left turn like they were forecasting, now more of a gradual one, and they have all shifted further west as well, putting Chantal to grind slowly up the East coast of Florida.
Quoting 787. Patrap:


That SW turn at the end in some of those plots is interesting.
Until further notice, I've adjusted my forecast.


Quoting 726. MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I know, from the collapsed ball of thunderstorms that was located east of the Lesser Antilles. These appear to be new downdrafts though.


I would beg to differ the burst of convection that warmed and collapse due to DMIN is actually allowing the storm the grow in cloud coverage and new convection is replacing the old over the NW quad where dry air was punching it from this morning thunderstorms have also increase on the SW region and more convective activity from the Eastern side wrapping around into the NW quad. Seems like it try to build itself up structurally. 
Why Toronto Was Drenched by Record Rainfall
By Denise Chow, Staff Writer
Date: 09 July 2013 Time: 02:26 PM ET

Quote from that article:

The heavy rain was generated by two separate storms that collided over the Greater Toronto area, a region that encompasses the city of Toronto and four surrounding regional municipalities.

"All that intense rainfall occurred when two thunderstorm complexes, one north of Toronto and one west of Toronto, merged," said Peter Kimbell, a warning preparedness meteorologist at Environment Canada. "The merger basically happened right over the airport and downtown area." [Video: Toronto Flash Floods Cause Traffic Chaos, Blackouts]

A lingering pattern of warm and humid air likely strengthened the storms as well, said Judy Levan, a warning coordination meteorologist at the U.S. National Weather Service in Buffalo, N.Y.

"We have a really rich stream of moisture coming up from the Gulf, so this pattern of air hasn't changed much," Levan told LiveScience. "That tends to make things worse, because you have these thunderstorms developing one day, and the next, and the next, so the soil becomes saturated and it can't even take as much rain."



Source the above linked site.
Quoting 799. galvestonhurricane:


I think the XTRP has the correct track. Very good consistency from run to run.

You Took my Line! I've said that ever since Chantal formed xD
Quoting 784. ProgressivePulse:
Are my eyes playing tricks on me or have the models in this chart COMPLETELY changed?


Yeah W and S a bit

Quoting 787. Patrap:

Yeah the southern suite
Quoting 799. galvestonhurricane:


I think the XTRP has the correct track. Very good consistency from run to run.


It's the best model in my opinion. I follow it exclusively.
Quoting 802. calkevin77:
Until further notice, I've adjusted my forecast.



I see the death ridge in black

NCEP Model website is back up
Current Wind Fields: Chantal
Quoting 798. stormgirI:

what profanity?


Check your sarcasm meter. It appears to need calibration.
Quoting 790. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Link


Thanks - appreciate it!
813. MahFL
Is the satellite in eclipse ?
814. wpb
DR A had it correct weakening at 120 hours
Quoting 810. mikatnight:
Current Wind Fields: Chantal

I see no hurricane force winds.
Quoting 802. calkevin77:
Until further notice, I've adjusted my forecast.


Lol
Quoting 810. mikatnight:
Current Wind Fields: Chantal


Winds solely on the northeast quadrant indicate lack of a strong COC
its look like tropical storm is weakening right now..
I remember how Issac was supposed to go up the east coast of FL but instead went to NOLA. Sometimes you just never know.

True you never know, however I believe the predictions for Isaac hitting the Treasure Coast of Texas was about 3 to 4 days earlier than the predictions for Chantal now. I think more likely if there was a change in present model runs, rather than a more southerly pass would be later or less of the end run westerly swing
Quoting 764. StormTrackerScott:
I remember how Issac was supposed to go up the east coast of FL but instead went to NOLA. Sometimes you just never know.


That's why it's just crazy to make a call right now about where the storm might go in 7 days. At best we can all make an educated guess and then wait it out. I always worry about systems like this sliding into the GOM, especially when there isn't a trough strong enough to pick it up and send it out to sea. Somebody in the US is going to get paid a visit by Chantal by the looks of it. Who knows multiple locations might see her.
Quoting 799. galvestonhurricane:


I think the XTRP has the correct track. Very good consistency from run to run.


the XTRP is not a model .. it just shows direction of present movement of a storm ..
Quoting 785. 69Viking:


That's why I lurk more than I post now. Seems a lot of the wise and well educated users have been replaced with adolecent kids who have no respect for anyone. Now more than anything I read and pay attention to the guys and gals I know put out good information. This storm has a long way to go and right now it's anybodies guess on exactly what part of the US this storm will affect. Only time will tell.
i enjoy reading all the difference in opinion on what it will do not do etc, if you don't agree or if ones opinion does not come to fruit it doesn't mean they should be attacked.
Quoting 811. Brock31:


Check your sarcasm meter. It appears to need calibration.

oh haha. my bad i thought it was the other poster who was complaining about "g" rated language. luckily my phone charger is compatible with my sarcasm meter. gettin on it...
Still thinking the Bahamas blob is looking more and more like the ULL is makeing its way to the surface.
Quoting 802. calkevin77:
Until further notice, I've adjusted my forecast.



i concurr
826. wpb
Quoting 817. galvestonhurricane:


Winds solely on the northeast quadrant indicate lack of a strong COC
july in carb sea
Quoting 807. ProgressivePulse:


It's the best model in my opinion. I follow it exclusively.


This year is finally going to be a breakout year for the XTRP, I have a good feeling.
I see no hurricane force winds.


which is why she's a tropical storm.....ta da da boom!


Quoting 817. galvestonhurricane:


Winds solely on the northeast quadrant indicate lack of a strong COC

The whole entire South and Southwestern side only has about 10-20 mph winds, indicative of a barely closed circulation,

It wont let me edit this comment!
Quoting 816. wunderkidcayman:

Lol

I'm still laughing!
Chantal is making us all a bit crazy
This year is finally going to be the breakout year for the XTRP, I have a good feeling.


many many moons ago....i asked how a model could be that straight
sorry dakster! lol. Yes, all ready to take whatever happens and will check in here and there weather and power!! permitting.,
Quoting 821. whitewabit:


the XTRP is not a model .. it just shows direct of present movement of a storm ..


I know. Sorry, my comment was a poor attempt at humor.
Quoting 821. whitewabit:


the XTRP is not a model .. it just shows direct of present movement of a storm ..

It was sarcasm :) Its just an inside joke.
Current Forecast Track: Chantal

Quoting 828. ricderr:
I see no hurricane force winds.


which is why she's a tropical storm.....ta da da boom!



She's making a run at hurricane status.
Quoting 818. hurricanes2018:
its look like tropical storm is weakening right now..

Well lacks a strong LLCOC
New steering:



The trades may be slowing down a bit. Cute little ridge over the northern gulf coast.
what's up with chantal?
ok what have I missed here besides a new Blog what is going own in here????

Taco :o)
Quoting 821. whitewabit:


the XTRP is not a model .. it just shows direct of present movement of a storm ..
Happens every season
Quoting 745. galvestonhurricane:


I think we are all overlooking a key rule of thumb: weak tropical cyclones will have a difficult time organizing if they are moving at a very fast pace. It doesn't seem to matter how favorable conditions are.


Yes, I agree wholeheartedly that that is generally so. YET, This one managed to organize while running 20-25+ kts across the Atl, while chasing SAL dust, and achieved TS status without slowing down, sucking a central pressure of only 1010mb (last night recon), IN EARLY JULY!

Now I can't recall a storm ever overcoming all of that. So whatever Chantael has in mind: for me at least she is already a quite unique and remarkable storm.
Quoting 829. TylerStanfield:

The whole entire South and Southwestern side only has about 10-20 mph winds, indicative of a barely closed circulation, the winds also have random shifts n then side... Not so great.

Maybe she's becoming an open wave.
My personal opinion is the NHC doesn't have a clue as to what this storm is gonna do past 72hrs......
Quoting 829. TylerStanfield:

The whole entire South and Southwestern side only has about 10-20 mph winds, indicative of a barely closed circulation.

It wont let me edit the comment :P
I should really read what I type before I post it.
Quoting 802. calkevin77:
Until further notice, I've adjusted my forecast.



You are even overtopping BAMD model, lol.
Can't say I like the latest model runs... Chantal surfing the Gulfstream for 500 miles up the east coast then turning left into Jax, Sav, or Charleston would be BAD.

Quoting 818. hurricanes2018:
its look like tropical storm is weakening right now..
It been structurally challenged all day it is now trying to build it convective mass back up 
remembering my post from 2 days ago where i said they will keep moving the track further north each period and up past and away from florida and its still happening that way florida wont get much ... now its looking more like georgia or south carlina
Quoting 835. mikatnight:
Current Forecast Track: Chantal


Should change S and W
Quoting 844. cat6band:
My personal opinion is the NHC doesn't have a clue as to what this storm is gonna do past 72hrs......


Neither does anyone on this blog.
I'll be back later.
Definitely growing in size:

She's making a run at hurricane status.

pssst....don't let anyone else read this...but i actually think she'll make it
sloppy mess
Quoting 854. ricderr:
She's making a run at hurricane status.

pssst....don't let anyone else read this...but i actually think she'll make it

OK.
Quoting 848. Hurricanes305:

It been structurally challenged all day it is now trying to build it convective mass back up 


'Structurally challenged'. I like that. Wouldn't be surprised if obesity counsellors start using it.
Just observing this, you'd think she's just gonna plow on down the 15N latitude track and plow on into Central America. If that happens well....hope you had fun watching Chantal.

Chantal to be retired if it makes it to western NC. We have already had 5-10" of rain in the month of July alone. Last three months have been very wet actually.

Highway 321 in Boone, North Carolina.




Quoting 851. nash36:


Neither does anyone on this blog.
thats sounds like every storm
862. Relix
Quoting 841. PalmBeachWeather:
Happens every season


I think its a running gag by now
Thank you Weather Underground for scaring the heck out of me... I thought I lost everything I worked on the past 2 hours when my new blog didn't posted for 5 minutes. Thankfully it did... here's my newest blog post:

Bluestorm5's Blog on Chantal

And here's the newest forecast:

864. Relix
Quoting 859. RitaEvac:
Just observing this, you'd think she's just gonna plow on down the 15N latitude track and plow on into Central America. If that happens well....hope you had fun watching Chantal.



That's the convection. its definitely moving WNW
The Other Chart
Quoting 745. galvestonhurricane:


I think we are all overlooking a key rule of thumb: weak tropical cyclones will have a difficult time organizing if they are moving at a very fast pace. It doesn't seem to matter how favorable conditions are.


Yes, I agree wholeheartedly that is generally the case. However for Chantal she has already overcome quite a bit.

I don't ever recall any storm forming while moving 20 - 25 kts across the Atlantic, chasing SAL dust, organizing into a strong TS, With a core of 1010mb (last night recon), ALL in EARLY JULY!!

Whatever Chantal has in mind, she is already a unique and remarkable storm in my book. She's consistently defied Climo. ...and as such should not be trusted to follow any of the 'normal' rules.

EDIT: Sorry for semi-double post. I thought blog ate original...
Quoting 838. GTstormChaserCaleb:
New steering:



The trades may be slowing down a bit. Cute little ridge over the northern gulf coast.
not much of a chance for this to make it into the gulf at this point huh? I know most models stay to the east coast of Florida or further north to the Carolina's, or at least the last ones I saw did
My personal opinion is the NHC doesn't have a clue as to what this storm is gonna do past 72hrs......



aint that the truth...i mean...hey....they're just guys with masters and doctorate degrees and the best equipment...access to the best and latest imagery...not to mention they understand the dynamics of the models...not just the spaghetti results....i never listen to them either :-)
Quoting 863. Bluestorm5:
Thank you Weather Underground for scaring the heck out of me... I thought I lost everything I worked on the past 2 hours when my new blog didn't posted for 5 minutes. Thankfully it did... here's my newest blog post:

Bluestorm5's Blog on Chantal

And here's the newest forecast:


Nice. How did you make it?
Quoting Walshy:
Chantal to be retired if it makes it to western NC. We have already had 5-10" of rain in the month of July alone. Last three months have been very wet actually.

Highway 321 in Boone, North Carolina.





Wow..that's quite a bit of water.
More pictures from the flooding. This looks like the 401.

Most recent satellite data has Typhoon Soulik as a 115kt Category 4 Typhoon



It looks like we may have a Super Typhoon on our hands by later today or tomorrow.
Quoting 869. ricderr:
My personal opinion is the NHC doesn't have a clue as to what this storm is gonna do past 72hrs......



aint that the truth...i mean...hey....they're just guys with masters and doctorate degrees and the best equipment...access to the best and latest imagery...not to mention they understand the dynamics of the models...not just the spaghetti results....i never listen to them either :-)


Post.Of.The.Day

How you been Ricderr? I haven't chatted with you in eons!
Here's the CPC's 6-10 day precip outlook. As would be expected, looks wet in the Southeast:

Quoting 857. Patrap:


Nice graphic. Link by chance?
Quoting 846. barbamz:


You are even overtopping BAMD model, lol.


Yes. Good catch. My beta software running the linguini model was a little aggressive.
WxSouth said this last Sunday on its facebook page...

Could Chantal Combine With The Upper Low next weekend in the Southeast, and form a perfect storm? This situation bears watching all week. If you're registered, read all about it at www.wxsouth.com

Quoting 869. ricderr:
My personal opinion is the NHC doesn't have a clue as to what this storm is gonna do past 72hrs......



aint that the truth...i mean...hey....they're just guys with masters and doctorate degrees and the best equipment...access to the best and latest imagery...not to mention they understand the dynamics of the models...not just the spaghetti results....i never listen to them either :-)


Oh thats's right.....they are ALWAYS right on the money because of their degrees....
Tropical Storm conditions being forecasted by the NWS for the Palm Beach County coast on Saturday.
Quoting 877. mikatnight:


Nice graphic. Link by chance?


ESL by LSU
Quoting 881. WPBHurricane05:
Tropical Storm conditions being forecasted by the NWS for the Palm Beach County coast on Saturday.

OHNO!
Quoting 875. Patrap:



Hmmm. Not really liking this northerly trend I'm seeing here.

We've had plenty of rain here.
Quoting 880. cat6band:


Oh thats's right.....they are ALWAYS right on the money because of their degrees....


My thermometer has 84 degrees.
my life has changed 180.....i live in el paso....have a wonderful significant other......very scary to most is she's an LPC.....another child in the way of a most beautiful and strong willed two year old girl....life has a way of turning to good...even when we don't expect it...i'm happier than i've been in ages....and you?
Quoting 879. Walshy:
WxSouth said this last Sunday on its facebook page...

Could Chantal Combine With The Upper Low next weekend in the Southeast, and form a perfect storm? This situation bears watching all week. If you're registered, read all about it at www.wxsouth.com

His forecast already busted. It won't go above Charleston, SC.
Quoting 887. Bluestorm5:
His forecast already busted. It won't go above Charleston, SC.

How do you know? Do you mean on the coast or inland?

Quoting 859. RitaEvac:
Just observing this, you'd think she's just gonna plow on down the 15N latitude track and plow on into Central America. If that happens well....hope you had fun watching Chantal.

Chantal has increase in size and cloud cover although convection has wane likely to DMIN. That is why visible sat. is the best way to tell what happening to a storm. If it keeps this up by the time DMAX approaches it could easily blow up some tall cold cloud tops again. 
Quoting 881. WPBHurricane05:
Tropical Storm conditions being forecasted by the NWS for the Palm Beach County coast on Saturday.
Maybe yes, Maybe no... Still to far away and to many variables
Quoting 886. ricderr:
my life has changed 180.....i live in el paso....have a wonderful significant other......very scary to most is she's an LPC.....another child in the way of a most beautiful and strong willed two year old girl....life has a way of turning to good...even when we don't expect it...i'm happier than i've been in ages....and you?


Glad to hear things are going well for you and yours... What is an LPC?? Licensed Practicing ____?? 'C' = Typo for Nurse?
Interested to see just how much land interaction takes place. A few showing a brush of Hispaniola and making the mona passage. Others plowing into the Mountainous eastern Cuba. Much thinner passage over eastern Cuba however.
Quoting 883. 62901IL:

OHNO!
62901? Do you live close to me? I am in Boynton Beach
PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...AND
THEN CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOW IS AN EXCELLENT TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTION PLAN...AND GATHER ANY REMAINING SUPPLIES FOR YOUR HURRICANE KIT THAT YOU MIGHT STILL NEED.

NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook
well we have days and days to watch this storm,probably shifting course several times before we can truly say we KNOW where its going..
Severe flooding elsewhere: China (still)

Nailbiting escape for Chinese men stranded by floodwaters (with a dramatic video)
Emergency workers came to the rescue of two maintenance men trapped on a sandbar in the middle of a raging river amid heavy flooding in Sichuan province.
Oh thats's right.....they are ALWAYS right on the money because of their degrees....


well then...they'd be gods rather than mets...however...i've seen no one match their skills....especially to the point that they should be put down or denigrated....have you?
FYI


XTRP, which stands for eXTRaPolated, is an extrapolation of a tropical cyclone's future track if a system were to continue its current motion and speed at a constant rate. While it is not technically a computer model, the XTRP line is often incorporated into tropical computer model graphics to be used as a comparison to other computer models. The XTRP line, since it simply uses 2 variables, heading and speed, is always a straight line. Unlike other computer models, the XTRP forecast should not be taken as seriously as other computer models and is not used by the National Hurricane Center to forecast tropical systems.
Quoting 893. PalmBeachWeather:
62901? Do you live close to me? I am in Boynton Beach

No. I live in the area with the zip code as 62901. I say that because the remnats may come to me.
Quoting 886. ricderr:
my life has changed 180.....i live in el paso....have a wonderful significant other......very scary to most is she's an LPC.....another child in the way of a most beautiful and strong willed two year old girl....life has a way of turning to good...even when we don't expect it...i'm happier than i've been in ages....and you?


Glad to hear things are going well for you! As for me, I left Tampa and moved to Charleston, SC to work for Boeing. Still here. Got divorced and re-married to my soul mate. Anyhoo, I won't clutter the blog with the personal story. Mail me if you wanna chat.
Quoting 879. Walshy:
WxSouth said this last Sunday on its facebook page...

Could Chantal Combine With The Upper Low next weekend in the Southeast, and form a perfect storm? This situation bears watching all week. If you're registered, read all about it at www.wxsouth.com



A 'Perfect Storm" he says. Hmmm let me think about that for a minute. Okay that's enough, the answer is... err NO!
000
FXUS62 KMFL 091825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE TO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL AND METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
ALONG WITH THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF CHANTAL
Quoting 889. Hurricanes305:

Chantal has increase in size and cloud cover although convection has wane likely to DMIN. That is why visible sat. is the best way to tell what happening to a storm. If it keeps this up by the time DMAX approaches it could easily blow up some tall cold cloud tops again. 


Honestly, over the three years that I have tracked hurricanes, I have not noticed a significant increase in strength or weakening during DMAX/DMIN.
Weren't we saying that this run of the GFS and all related models would be inaccurate due to contamination... Server problems... Or something..?
Quoting 879. Walshy:
WxSouth said this last Sunday on its facebook page...

Could Chantal Combine With The Upper Low next weekend in the Southeast, and form a perfect storm? This situation bears watching all week. If you're registered, read all about it at www.wxsouth.com






So a tropical system is going to combine forces with a non-frontal mid latitude low to create a superstorm? Do you kids know anything about what you're talking about? Or do you just watch the Day After Tomorrow and The Perfect Storm?
Glad to hear things are going well for you and yours... What is an LPC?? Licensed Practicing ____?? 'C' = Typo for Nurse?


Licensed Professional Counselor.....in another words...a mental health therapist
nice tropical wave maybe invest 9LL in a few days
Quoting 899. 62901IL:

No. I live in the area with the zip code as 62901. I say that because the remnats may come to me.
Carbondale
Quoting 909. PalmBeachWeather:
Carbondale

That's right.
Quoting 898. auburn:
FYI


XTRP, which stands for eXTRaPolated, is an extrapolation of a tropical cyclone's future track if a system were to continue its current motion and speed at a constant rate. While it is not technically a computer model, the XTRP line is often incorporated into tropical computer model graphics to be used as a comparison to other computer models. The XTRP line, since it simply uses 2 variables, heading and speed, is always a straight line. Unlike other computer models, the XTRP forecast should not be taken as seriously as other computer models and is not used by the National Hurricane Center to forecast tropical systems.


What about CLP5? It seems to be an excellent tracking model. :P
Quoting 739. TylerStanfield:

Flight level winds were at 80 Mph, but its just frustrating to be considering a storm to get upgraded to a hurricane when the SW side of the center is barely closed and convection is not anywhere close to be organized.
Quoting 739. TylerStanfield:

Flight level winds were at 80 Mph, but its just frustrating to be considering a storm to get upgraded to a hurricane when the SW side of the center is barely closed and convection is not anywhere close to be organized.
Nate 2011 was horrible and was upgrade :P the same for Noel of 2001.If it has the winds it should be upgrade no matter how ugly it looks.
Quoting 907. ricderr:
Glad to hear things are going well for you and yours... What is an LPC?? Licensed Practicing ____?? 'C' = Typo for Nurse?


Licensed Professional Counselor.....in another words...a mental health therapist


I think most of us on here could use your expertise...
Quoting 912. allancalderini:
Nate 2011 was horrible and was upgrade :P the same for Noel of 2001.

Yup,
glad life is good for you Nash
Quoting 897. ricderr:
Oh thats's right.....they are ALWAYS right on the money because of their degrees....


well then...they'd be gods rather than mets...however...i've seen no one match their skills....especially to the point that they should be put down or denigrated....have you?


Didn't put them down at all....read the post. I said I don't think they have a clue as to where the system will wind up after 72hrs. I think the NHC does a fine job, but I also think they don't have a hold on this system yet....don't put words in my mouth....
NWS Tampa:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE 00Z
GFS SHOWING THE SYSTEM TAKING A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z CANADIAN SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHEARING OUT OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKING CHANTAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WOULD NOT
EXPECT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM TO EMERGE BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL TRY TO
MAINTAIN AS MUCH FORECAST CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE AND LEAN THE
FORECAST HEAVILY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
Quoting 904. galvestonhurricane:


Honestly, over the three years that I have tracked hurricanes, I have not noticed a significant increase in strength or weakening during DMAX/DMIN.


Yes, it does seem to be an overrated factor.
Quoting 898. auburn:
FYI


XTRP, which stands for eXTRaPolated, is an extrapolation of a tropical cyclone's future track if a system were to continue its current motion and speed at a constant rate. While it is not technically a computer model, the XTRP line is often incorporated into tropical computer model graphics to be used as a comparison to other computer models. The XTRP line, since it simply uses 2 variables, heading and speed, is always a straight line. Unlike other computer models, the XTRP forecast should not be taken as seriously as other computer models and is not used by the National Hurricane Center to forecast tropical systems.
It's also involved in many jokes on this blog as well.
Very high gusts a few hours earlier in dominica.. Things have calm down significantly... There has been damage especially the southern parts of the island.... Numerous trees and landslides blocked roads..a few poorly constructed houses lost their roofs in the south as well... Electricity is out in various parts of the island with an unusually high number of utility poles falling....i will be posting some pics as soon as the electricity comes back on in my area(don't knoow how to do it with my phone).www.dominicanewsonline.com should have some pictures!
Very high gusts a few hours earlier in dominica.. Things have calm down significantly... There has been damage especially the southern parts of the island.... Numerous trees and landslides blocked roads..a few poorly constructed houses lost their roofs in the south as well... Electricity is out in various parts of the island with an unusually high number of utility poles falling....i will be posting some pics as soon as the electricity comes back on in my area(don't knoow how to do it with my phone).www.dominicanewsonline.com should have some pictures!
I think most of us on here could use your expertise...


no no noooo.....not me....i'm her personal assistant and the house manny....the expert is my S/O.....i'm afraid i'm as looney as all of us here
Quoting 869. ricderr:
My personal opinion is the NHC doesn't have a clue as to what this storm is gonna do past 72hrs......



aint that the truth...i mean...hey....they're just guys with masters and doctorate degrees and the best equipment...access to the best and latest imagery...not to mention they understand the dynamics of the models...not just the spaghetti results....i never listen to them either :-)



I don't think anyone says that kind of thing saying they're noobheads...but no amount of doctorate, degree or computer models are going to help you with some of these storms, especially 72 hours in advance. Conditions that seemed likely to influence one day, can change and change everything there's so much at play sometimes. I think it's more aboutt he storm being difficult, than the NHC folkes being daft.

Aside from that, going back a bit to posting images relaying emotion or portraying what someone thinks about a storm or readings of one...not sure a photo/ meme - instead of someone just saying 'wow' or 'not what I thought it would be' - is any more off topic than typing the 1 or 2 word response! And anyway, I love it when people put memes up portaying their thoughts of the storm, over just saying 'wow' or whatever. Nothing wrong with a 'little' bit of lightheartedness...especially when they indeed ARE on topic about the storm, just as much as someone just typing a word or 2 instead. if nothing to do with it and just some random meme, I can see. Just saying.

Anyway, all this excitement in the Atl, then see the amazing images from WPAC...not surprising over there with the monster storms they get, but still can't help but say, umm...wow LOL
57 minutes to the next advisory! Let's countdown!
Quoting 912. allancalderini:
Nate 2011 was horrible and was upgrade :P the same for Noel of 2001.

Nate actually looked decent for a brief time when it formed before dry air over the western gulf choked it out. I just want to see more from Chantal convectively before I see them upgrade it to a Hurricane...
LOL! ADT has mistaken the little gap in t-storms in Chantal for an eye!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2013 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 15:00:24 N Lon : 63:00:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.4C

Scene Type : EYE



The wave that becomes Dorian has emerged? o_0
Quoting 911. galvestonhurricane:


What about CLP5? It seems to be an excellent tracking model. :P

Yep and it's based on climatology
997.8 mb pressure MAweatherboy01??
Quoting 926. MAweatherboy1:
LOL! ADT has mistaken the little gap in t-storms in Chantal for an eye!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2013 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 15:00:24 N Lon : 63:00:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.4C

Scene Type : EYE




LOL!
Didn't put them down at all....read the post. I said I don't think they have a clue as to where the system will wind up after 72hrs. I think the NHC does a fine job, but I also think they don't have a hold on this system yet....don't put words in my mouth....


cat....shhhhhh.....utmost respect for you...just think you're dead wrong in this case....was looking for a comical way to disagree with you....much love....



wind shear is falling its now 30kt too 40kts the 50kt that was on the last update is gone
Tropics chat anyone?
Quoting 926. MAweatherboy1:
LOL! ADT has mistaken the little gap in t-storms in Chantal for an eye!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2013 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 15:00:24 N Lon : 63:00:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.4C

Scene Type : EYE




HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! LOL! LOL! LOL!
Quoting 907. ricderr:
Glad to hear things are going well for you and yours... What is an LPC?? Licensed Practicing ____?? 'C' = Typo for Nurse?


Licensed Professional Counselor.....in another words...a mental health therapist


Ohh, Excellent! Have them post here often, if at all possible. This blog could make good use those type services. Heck, It could be mutually beneficial. They could write several doctoral thesis on this place.
Quoting 926. MAweatherboy1:
LOL! ADT has mistaken the little gap in t-storms in Chantal for an eye!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2013 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 15:00:24 N Lon : 63:00:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.4C

Scene Type : EYE



Maybe an eye in the making.
Quoting 917. GTstormChaserCaleb:
NWS Tampa:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE 00Z
GFS SHOWING THE SYSTEM TAKING A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z CANADIAN SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHEARING OUT OFF THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKING CHANTAL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WOULD NOT
EXPECT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM TO EMERGE BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL TRY TO
MAINTAIN AS MUCH FORECAST CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE AND LEAN THE
FORECAST HEAVILY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
Why of course! This came out of Tampa and they have the "Tampa Shields"..lol...
Quoting 927. washingtonian115:
The wave that becomes Dorian has emerged? o_0

The wave axis is still just onshore, but most of the energy from the wave is stacking up just offshore, and it should all fester and consolidate over the net 48 hours.
Quoting 938. HurricaneAndre:
Maybe an eye in the making.

[The happy bubble inside of me bursts]
Quoting 924. 62901IL:
57 minutes to the next advisory! Let's countdown!

Really wow time is moving fast today

Quoting 926. MAweatherboy1:
LOL! ADT has mistaken the little gap in t-storms in Chantal for an eye!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2013 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 15:00:24 N Lon : 63:00:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.4C

Scene Type : EYE




Lol

Quoting 938. HurricaneAndre:
Maybe an eye in the making.


Ummm no.
Quoting 925. TylerStanfield:

Nate actually looked decent for a brief time when it formed before dry air over the western gulf choked it out. I just want to see more from Chantal convectively before I see them upgrade it to a Hurricane...
Would you be angry if they do it?
Quoting 938. HurricaneAndre:
Maybe an eye in the making.

No. It has no eyewall, and the convection is very disorganized. the downdraft boundary has created a hole in the convection which Satellite estimates confused with an eye feature.
And now 53 minutes till the next advisory!
It seems as though the pressure is starting to fall in Chantal.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 942. wunderkidcayman:

Really wow time is moving fast today


Lol

54 minutes.
Quoting 932. ricderr:
Didn't put them down at all....read the post. I said I don't think they have a clue as to where the system will wind up after 72hrs. I think the NHC does a fine job, but I also think they don't have a hold on this system yet....don't put words in my mouth....


cat....shhhhhh.....utmost respect for you...just think you're dead wrong in this case....was looking for a comical way to disagree with you....much love....


Fair enough.....
Quoting 872. GTstormChaserCaleb:
More pictures from the flooding. This looks like the 401.



Unbelievable. If I didn't know better those barrels look like buoys marking a boat channel. That is some massive flooding.
Quoting 949. WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Already? wow!
Quoting 944. allancalderini:
Would you be angry if they do it?

No. Frustrated, but not angry, they're the experts and they can make the call if they want. If they're is enough evidence to back it up, that is.
Quoting java162:
Very high gusts a few hours earlier in dominica.. Things have calm down significantly... There has been damage especially the southern parts of the island.... Numerous trees and landslides blocked roads..a few poorly constructed houses lost their roofs in the south as well... Electricity is out in various parts of the island with an unusually high number of utility poles falling....i will be posting some pics as soon as the electricity comes back on in my area(don't knoow how to do it with my phone).www.dominicanewsonline.com should have some pictures!

Wow...Thanks for keeping us up to date with what's going on in Dominica.
WU is moving at over 200 comments an hour .. and appears there is a slight lag time before post show up ..

Please wait for your comment to appear after posting .. do not double post

Thank you ..
That definitely isn't an eye for chantal



Quoting 933. Tazmanian:



wind shear is falling its now 30kt too 40kts the 50kt that was on the last update is gone

Not only that but the upper level low weakened up to and opened up to an upper level trof as I expected

Quoting 938. HurricaneAndre:
Maybe an eye in the making.

Yeah no not an eye



7 day track of mine for chantal
I still find the latest Models runs to be comical it would take one heck of a upper low and/or a vertical deep trough and the ridge must erode and back off to the east in response to funnel the storm north after making such a ridiculous right hook out of the Caribbean after moving WNW/NW over Hispaniola into GA/SC and even then that funneling won't last as one will have to give in. Thus if this was to go north it will have to go NNE/NE out to sea or be a east coast runner for something like that to have a chance of happening. This high is too strong for a trough or upper level low to do that and odds are the models are underrating this High like its the same one from previous years. Also notice the storm is headed further west as the High is a little stronger than what the models were showing before. With that being said It is also July and climatology is against this. I expect a westward turn to return to the models.
Quoting whitewabit:
WU is moving at over 200 comments an hour .. and appears there is a slight lag time before post show up ..

Please wait for your comment to appear after posting .. do not double post

Thank you ..

As I predicted yesterday, if Chantal actually becomes a hurricane, the post count will move up to 1.23 bazillion per hour and crash every server in the western hemisphere. :-)
If Chantal strikes Georgia as tropical storm, it will be the first tropical cyclone landfall in the state since TD 7 in 2003. Further, Chantal would be the first named storm to strike Georgia since Tropical Storm Chris in 1988.

Quoting sar2401:

As I predicted yesterday, if Chantal actually becomes a hurricane, the post count will move up to 1.23 bazillion per hour and crash every server in the western hemisphere. :-)


It's inevitable