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Historic Heat Wave Reponsible for Death Valley's 129°F Gradually Weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2013

One of the greatest heat waves in North American history peaked on Sunday and Monday, but will still bring some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded to portions of the Western U.S. during the afternoon today. The extraordinary heat wave, caused by an unusually extreme standing wave pattern in the jet stream, brought Earth's highest June temperature ever recorded on Sunday, June 30, when the mercury hit 129.2°F (54.0°C) in Death Valley, California. The only higher temperatures ever recorded on the planet occurred in Death Valley on July 10, 12, and 13, 1913, when readings of 134°F, 130°F, and 131°F were recorded. This 100 year-old record heat wave has many doubters, though, including Mr. Burt, who noted in a 2010 blog post that "The record has been scrutinized perhaps more than any other in the United States. I don't have much more to add to the debate aside from my belief it is most likely not a valid reading when one looks at all the evidence. Normally when Death Valley records its hottest temperatures they occur during region-wide heat waves. On July 10, 1913 the next highest temperatures recorded in southern California (aside from Greenland Ranch) were just 119° at Heber and 118° at Mammoth Tank." If Mr. Burt is correct, then this Sunday's temperature of 129.2°F in Death Valley was the hottest temperature in recorded history on Earth.


Figure 1. The official Furnace Creek, Death Valley maximum recording thermometer for the maximum temperature measured on June 30th, 2013. The 129.2°F reading was the highest June temperature ever measured on Earth. Photo courtesy of Death Valley National Park and NWS-Las Vegas.

As documented by Mr. Burt in this latest blog post, some of the all-time records from the 2013 heat wave:

June 27, 2013
102° Santa Fe, NM: all-time heat record
105° Albuquerque, NM: tied 2nd highest temperature on record

June 28, 2013
105° Salt Lake City, UT: hottest June temperature on record
114° Zion National Park, UT: hottest June temp on record, and only 1° short of their all-time record of 115°

June 29, 2013
100° Ely, Nevada: hottest June temperature on record (previous 99° June 22, 1954)
101° Eureka, Nevada: hottest June temperature on record (previous 98° on two occasions)
105° Salt Lake City, Utah: hottest June temperature on record (again, see June 28)
122° Palm Springs, California: hottest June temperature on record (tied June 28, 1994) and 1° short of all-time record of 123° set on August 1, 1993
128° Death Valley, California: hottest June temperature on record (tied previous 128° set on June 29, 1994)
It was 119° in Phoenix, Arizona their 4th warmest reading on record.

June 30, 2013
129° Death Valley, California: Earth's all-time hottest June temperature
115° Lancaster, California: all--time heat record (previous record 114° on July 18 and 19, 1960)
117° Las Vegas, Nevada: all-time heat record (tied with July 19, 2005 and July 24, 1942)

All-time June monthly records were set or tied at:
104° Elko, Nevada (previous 104° June 24, 1981)
103° Tonopah, Nevada (previous 102° on two occasions), this was also just 1° short of their all-time record of 104° set on July 18, 1960).
106° Winnemucca, Nevada (previous 106° on June 24, 1988)

July 1, 2013
127° Death Valley, California
110° Boise, Idaho: tied for 2nd hottest temperature on record

Deadly Yarnell, Arizona fire continues to burn out-of-control
The deadly Yarnell Hills, Arizona wildfire that claimed the lives of nineteen firefighters of the Prescott-based Granite Mountain Hotshots continues to burn out of control near Yarnell, a small town about 85 miles northwest of Phoenix. The fire has burned 8,400 acres (13 square miles) and was 0% contained on Tuesday morning. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected Tuesday afternoon near Yarnell. These temperatures are about five degrees cooler than during Sunday's deadly blaze. The intense ridge of high pressure responsible for the intense heat will continue to weaken during the week, and high temperatures will be in the low 90s by the end of the week.


Figure 2. The Yarnell Hill Fire burns through the town of Yarnell, Ariz. on Sunday, June 30, 2013. The fire started Friday from a lightning strike and killed nineteen firefighters on Sunday. (AP Photo/The Arizona Republic, Tom Story)

Radar imagery from Sunday showed numerous dry thunderstorms over the Yarnell area, and it is likely that the outflow from one of these thunderstorms caused a sharp wind shift and strong wind gusts that caused extreme fire behavior that overran the firefighters' escape route. According to The Arizona Republic, the firefighters were trapped between two ridges when the winds suddenly reversed. A fire-monitoring station four miles from the fire measured nearly record combustion levels for the fuel on the ground, in the 97th percentile since the station was installed in 1985. The station measured southwest winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph at 4:01 PM. One hour later, ten minutes after the firefighters had deployed their fire shelters, the wind had reversed direction to northeast, and was gusting at 30 to 47 mph. The topography could have channeled these wind gusts to even higher speeds where the firefighters were. "Guys on the ground told me the fire behavior was as extreme as anything they’d ever seen,” said Dugger Hughes of the Southwest Coordination Center, an interagency organization in New Mexico that coordinates state and federal firefighting resources. The flames were 40 feet high and moved at an average speed of 1/2 mph. According to WWF blogger Nick Sundt, who is a former "smokejumper", dry thunderstorms causing sudden wind gusts and wind shifts is a common scenario with such large scale firefighter fatality incidents: for example, in the 1949 Mann Gulch fire in Montana (thirteen firefighters killed), and in the 1994 Storm King Mountain or South Canyon Fire in Colorado (fourteen firefighters killed.) Nick commented in an email to me: "It happened once to me in Idaho late one afternoon (in 1981, I think) when gusts from a building thunderstorm caused a fire to blow up in a drainage I was in with other smokejumpers.  We popped our fire shelters but the winds shifted late in the night and the fire stopped short of us. We high-tailed it out of there early in the morning before the winds picked up and incinerated everything we left behind (parachutes, jump gear, etc)." Wunderblogger Lee Grenci analyzes the 3-dimensional characteristics of the atmosphere over Arizona over the weekend in his latest post. He shows how conditions were ideal on Sunday for spawning dry thunderstorms capable of bringing erratic, gusty winds to the fire region. Here is the "Spot Forecast" that the Granite Mountain Hotshots had to work with on Sunday:

FNUS75 KFGZ 301655
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR YARNELL HILL...ARIZONA STATE FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN JUN 30 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0939 MST ON JUNE 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT SPELL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....100 TO 103.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 TO 15 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....73 TO 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....98 TO 102.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 17 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

$$
FORECASTER...DB
REQUESTED BY...BYRON R KMIBALL
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
TAG 20130630.YARNE.01/FGZ

The shocking and sad deaths of the nineteen brave men who died on Sunday was the largest loss of life among wildfire firefighters since 1933 Griffith Park, California fire in the U.S. (25 killed.) Fighting wildfires is dangerous work, and 1,043 firefighters died between 1910 - 2012 fighting wildfires in the U.S., according to statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center. Firefighter deaths have been on the rise in recent decades. Over the past ten years, 2004 - 2013, there have been an average of sixteen of these deaths per year, compared to eleven deaths per year during the 1970s and 1980s.

Links
Experts See New Normal as a Hotter, Drier West Faces More Huge Fires New York Times, July 1, 2013
The Climate Context Behind the Deadly Arizona Wildfires Climate Central, July 1, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable forecast models predict tropical cyclone development through Sunday. There is a large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic that will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and bring rainy conditions. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it may be worth watching for development late this week.

Jeff Masters
Scorching Hot!
Scorching Hot!
My gauge is almost running out of numbers.
First monsoon storm
First monsoon storm
Somehow managed to get a daytime lightning shot from my living room window. Exposure time was 1/8 of a second. Our first real storm of the season!

Heat Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

My three day rainfall total stands at 5.92"

A bit of a late start (alarm? what alarm?), but we finally dragged ourselves across the street to snap today's Good Morning! pic...

7:31 am (11:31 GMT)

We picked up 2 tenths of an inch of rain before I woke up. The Intracoastal Waterway is about midway to low tide.




Dexter casts his orbs seaward with a gumbo limbo tree in the background. The world is his oyster (crab).
1003. pcola57
Gee..
What a mess..

Quoting 1002. mikatnight:
Good Morning!Dexter casts his orbs seaward with a in the background. The world is his oyster (crab).

Dexter is just such a handsome fellow....
Quoting 1002. mikatnight:
A bit of a late start (alarm? what alarm?), but we finally dragged ourselves across the street to snap today's Good Morning! pic...

7:31 am (11:31 GMT)

We picked up 2 tenths of an inch of rain before I woke up. The Intracoastal Waterway is about midway to low tide.




Dexter casts his orbs seaward with a gumbo limbo tree in the background. The world is his oyster (crab).


Dexter ROCKS!

tourist tree ehhh
97E...

I gotta run, but I'll be around off and on through the day. Enjoy the peace and quiet while you can!
Quoting indianrivguy:


right after 40 days and 40 nights.. :)


Well I had 16 days and night of rain so I almost got to the 40. Past 2 days have been clear skies but sun is low so not much drying out happening
1009. FOREX
Quoting 1008. AussieStorm:


Well I had 16 days and night of rain so I almost got to the 40. Past 2 days have been clear skies but sun is low so not much drying out happening


It's pouring right now in Panama City beach. Guess the heavy rain totals have begun.
Quoting 1000. nfloridandr:
hey pcola, you heard from our Bonifay friend this morning? seems the heavy rain line has set up over this area.


I used to work with her over there.......I am sure she will be on shortly with a report. Probably in the process of securing the horses and such on the farm from all the rain.
1002. mikatnight I just want to give Dexter a hug. He's such a cute dog, and I think he knows it too.
1012. pcola57
Quoting 1000. nfloridandr:
hey pcola, you heard from our Bonifay friend this morning? seems the heavy rain line has set up over this area.


Hey nfloridandr..
I haven't been on long myself..
That would be Hondosgirl..
Haven't seen 'em but Usually around 10-11am posting here lately..
Hows weather your way?
Where ya at?
This is the heaviest 20dbz shower I've ever seen....



must be pouring in the 55dbz one.
Nice.....




...CNTRL GULF CST/SE U.S. TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST NNE INTO THE UPR TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOSTERED BY STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE IN PLUME OF
VERY MOIST AIR /PWS AOA 2 INCHES/ ASSOCIATED WITH WWD-EXPANDING
ATLANTIC RIDGE. UPLIFT ALSO WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NE OF NRN GULF
SFC LOW/TROUGH.

WHILE NEAR-SFC WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK...AS 850-700 MB LAYER
FLOW INTENSIFIES TO 30-40 KTS TNGT AND EARLY THU SETUP COULD YIELD
EMBEDDED LOW-LVL MESOS AND A RISK FOR TORNADOES..
.ESPECIALLY IN THE
FL PANHANDLE REGION AND PARTS OF GA/SE AL. IN THE NEAR-TERM...A MORE
LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES COULD EVOLVE INVOF INVERTED TROUGH
OVER SE LA/SRN MS...WHERE SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO ELY
BENEATH MODEST SLY FLOW ALOFT.

for a non TC on july 3rd


I wonder if daytime or nighttime better supports this threat.
I vote for Dexter as the Blog Mascot......Needs some shots of him in the future standing on the seawall (with leash on) facing a 40 knot headwind........
Sniffing something brewing in the Gulf

1017. Thrawst
.
OMG! What is that big round yellow thing rising above the horizon?
1019. FOREX
Quoting 1016. RitaEvac:
Sniffing something brewing in the Gulf



He's looking at the spin on land over the tip of the Yucatan.
1020. Dakster
Latest GFS still have a storm or has it dropped it?
1021. FOREX
Quoting 1018. HurricaneHunterJoe:
OMG! What is that big round yellow thing rising above the horizon?


It's rises, but cannot be seen where I live.
1022. FOREX
Quoting 1020. Dakster:
Latest GFS still have a storm or has it dropped it?


It's a toss-up.
Quoting 1012. pcola57:


Hey nfloridandr..
I haven't been on long myself..
That would be Hondosgirl..
Haven't seen 'em but Usually around 10-11am posting here lately..
Hows weather your way?
Where ya at?


in Dothan right now, not much rain. most of it is just off the the west for now. Bonifay is getting hammered with heavy rain. dumped rain gauge this morning and had only .25" as of 6:30
1024. 62901IL
We have a yellow circle.
Quoting 1001. FtMyersgal:
My three day rainfall total stands at 5.92"



My buddy in Estero is so so happy! Like 7 inches at his house....says the lawns are green and the lakes are full. Bet he was doing an Irish jig during them storms the last 3 days.
1026. FOREX
Quoting 1023. nfloridandr:


in Dothan right now, not much rain. most of it is just off the the west for now. Bonifay is getting hammered with heavy rain. dumped rain gauge this morning and had only .25" as of 6:30


should be getting some heavy rain in Dothan soon. Here in PCB its been heavy on and off for about an hour.
1027. 62901IL
The rain is over for my area!
yellow crayon has been brought out...what does everyone think?
July 3-9 per ECMWF

1030. 62901IL
Quoting 1028. southernema:
yellow crayon has been brought out...what does everyone think?

I think it is good because we need something to track.
The rain won't stop!.The humidity for seems like a million years is still here.The mosquito's have been breeding at a record pase.More than last year that's for sure where it was more of a dry heat with little rain around.
Quoting 1028. southernema:
yellow crayon has been brought out...what does everyone think?


Tally NWS update; rainmaker............

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2013

.UPDATE...
Rainy morning so far with almost all of the two-thirds of our forecast area already getting rain. Expect showers to spread across the area today. Environment is still looking viable for some
strong to severe storms today. Please see previous discussion below for more details.

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The amplified pattern with troughing in the central part of the country and ridging off the east coast is causing deep southerly flow over the CWA. This is a very moist air tropical air mass with precipitable water values anywhere from 2-2.3 in. With PWATs this high, the atmosphere becomes a very efficient rain producer.Therefore have raised PoPs to 100% for the afternoon. Rain will become widespread throughout the day. Generally expect 1-2 inches with locally heavier amounts possible.

Positive differential vorticity advection along with other QG forcing ahead of a digging shortwave is forcing pressure falls at the surface, thus strengthening a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico.
It is currently off the Louisiana coast, and is expected to move eastward and strengthen throughout the day. The strengthening low will increase the pressure gradient adding to an increase in winds.

As the upper level shortwave and surface low move east, there will be an increase in wind shear allowing for a low end chance of severe weather. This afternoon 0-6 km shear will increase to around 35 knots with the majority of the shear concentrated in the lowest 1 km. This CAPE/Shear profile will create a storm environment with the potential of producing shallow supercells. The environment isn`t
overly impressive, but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our area in a 2% tornado risk tomorrow for tornadoes.

Quoting 62901IL:
We have a yellow circle.

and what a big circle it is.... they might need to buy a new yellow crayon after drawing that one.
Quoting 913. sar2401:

...There is absolutely no compelling interest for the government to be the sole provider of weather information. I can't think of one weather service activity that couldn't be performed by the private sector.


I can. You should have a look at what happens when the private sector gets a hold of some "common good" activities. Read some history, like when fire and police departments were private. "That's a real nice house you got there. It'd be a shame if something should happen to it."

Private companies aren't operating for the public good. They are operating for profit. And if that means throwing Grandma Jones to the wolves because it's not profitable to set up a weather station in Hermitsville Kansas, then that's what will happen.

We've already seen how Accuweather, TWC, and our own WeatherUndergound (now part of TWC) have monetized the process of producing weather forecasts. It seems unfair at best that taxpayers provide much of the data in terms of satellites, radar, and weather offices for companies like those I've mentioned to provide information at a cost to the public.


No, it's unfair to give companies a way to basically extort money from every business and person in the country. Weather information is critical, like police and fire protection. Allowing one company or a handful absolute control over that information is stupid, if not suicidal.

If I was President for a day, all these private companies would be paying fees to help subsidize the cost of public resources they currently use for free.


They don't use them for free. The realtime weather feeds, data products, etc. all cost money.

I can see the time, probably not in my lifetime, but a time in the future, when the NWS will cease to exist in its present format, and will be a provider of fee-based information to the public and private organizations.


I certainly hope not. We really don't ned to screw over the have-nots anymore than we already do.

You may think this is strange or even unlikely, but we already have this concept with some government agencies. You don''t get into national parks for free, or generally get to camp or stay in a cabin or hotel in National Park or Forest for free, so why should we get weather forecasts for free?


Because staying at a park is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN CRITICAL WEATHER INFORMATION. You're comparing apples to jumbo jets.

I can even see how this plan would improve the overall accuracy and timing of forecasts for severe weather.


Yeah, for those that can afford it right?

If the NWS or the NHC blows a forecast well, that's just too bad, since you can't sue the government. A private company would have a lot of incentive to get things right.


You really don't understand how forecasting works, do you?

Sorry, but your free market utopia fails miserably when it comes to providing critical services to the masses. That's why the government either provides those services directly or heavily regulates industries that do.
1035. 62901IL
Quoting 1033. AussieStorm:

and what a big circle it is.... they might need to buy a new yellow crayon after drawing that one.

Very nice joke...but the crayons never run out.
1036. pcola57
Quoting 1023. nfloridandr:


in Dothan right now, not much rain. most of it is just off the the west for now. Bonifay is getting hammered with heavy rain. dumped rain gauge this morning and had only .25" as of 6:30


Here Dothan's NWS page..

I got rain here but just barely drizzin'..
Couple of pops of lightening way off in the distance..
Nothing severe here at all..
Small Craft Warning,Flash Flood Watch,Rip Current Warning is about all I see so far for me..
From Tallahassee discussion we are to have a Marine Warning in the making for a bit later..
Quoting 1015. weathermanwannabe:
I vote for Dexter as the Blog Mascot......Needs some shots of him in the future standing on the seawall (with leash on) facing a 40 knot headwind........


He's starting to get a little fat (10 lbs!), but I don't think even that would be enough to keep him on the ground in that kind of wind WMW!

Such wonderful comments from so many of you. My wife is gonna get a big kick out of this page when she gets a chance to see it later. I'd better keep it from Dex though, his head is big enough already!

Sorry for delayed response...internet connection giving me fits today.

Oh, you may be interested to know, it's also Dexter's birthday tomorrow. He'll be 2 years old. And he loves parties...
Tropical Update on TWC stated that there are 3 possible systems in the next week or so.
2 in the GOM and 1 heading towards Florida.
1039. 62901IL
Quoting 1038. Sfloridacat5:
Tropical Update on TWC stated that there are 3 possible systems in the next week or so.
2 in the GOM and 1 heading towards Florida.

Oh no!
1040. hydrus
1037. mikatnight 9:55 AM EDT on July 03, 2013

Glad to see his B-Day is before the peak of the season.......He is too young to be going to any hurricane parties on his own........Especially if he lives in an evacuation zone.
1042. 62901IL
Quoting 1040. hydrus:

Uhoh. Could the WRF thing be the system in the GOM?
Quoting 1037. mikatnight:


He's starting to get a little fat (10 lbs!), but I don't think even that would be enough to keep him on the ground in that kind of wind WMW!

Such wonderful comments from so many of you. My wife is gonna get a big kick out of this page when she gets a chance to see it later. I'd better keep it from Dex though, his head is big enough already!

Sorry for delayed response...internet connection giving me fits today.

Oh, you may be interested to know, it's also Dexter's birthday tomorrow. He'll be 2 years old. And he loves parties...


Pup will be there.. with bells on...

1044. hydrus
Quoting 992. FOREX:


did you write this?
really Forex
pcola, do you have to be a subscriber to post pictures? I have tried numerous times without success.
1046. 62901IL
Quoting 1045. nfloridandr:
pcola, do you have to be a subscriber to post pictures? I have tried numerous times without success.

No. If the picture does not show up, something is wrong with the URL.
Quoting 930. AussieStorm:




Models have the Yucatan system moving towards TX,LA.


The weather service here in Lake Charles mentions rain, but nothing else.? I just watch and read so just curious about the models. Most of this is over my head, but I read it anyway. Thanks to all from southwest Louisiana.
Quoting 1043. indianrivguy:


Pup will be there.. with bells on...



Too funny! What a beautiful deer, er, dog! We've got one of Dexter looking equally miserable in his xmas get-up. I'll have to find it. Gotta get to work now though. Great pic IRG, I'm still giggling.

Have a wonderful day everyone, see ya later...
1049. 62901IL
Quoting 1048. mikatnight:


Too funny! What a beautiful deer, er, dog! We've got one of Dexter looking equally miserable in his xmas get-up. I'll have to find it. Gotta get to work now though. Great pic IRG, I'm still giggling.

Have a wonderful day everyone, see ya later...

You too!
Quoting 1047. bearinLA:


The weather service here in Lake Charles mentions rain, but nothing else.? I just watch and read so just curious about the models. Most of this is over my head, but I read it anyway. Thanks to all from southwest Louisiana.


Was just there last Thursday and Friday....L'Auberge
1051. hydrus
Quoting 1025. HurricaneHunterJoe:


My buddy in Estero is so so happy! Like 7 inches at his house....says the lawns are green and the lakes are full. Bet he was doing an Irish jig during them storms the last 3 days.
Love Estero.. Awesome rip-raps down there, and they are the best party spots...Stay cool even on the hottest days....I,m gettin home sick..
Isolated 2 " amounts

this radar may be overdoing it with the 5" since 8am in west GA.
But we'll see.



tonight/tomorrow is the big rain day.
1053. 62901IL
Quoting 1052. GeorgiaStormz:
Isolated 2+" amounts



tonight/tomorrow is the big rain day.

OH NO!!!
1054. ricderr
DANG IT BOYS....There's a blob out there and no one is watching


1055. 62901IL
All right. Today, no arguments, no bans, no issues...no nothing.
1056. pcola57
Quoting 1045. nfloridandr:
pcola, do you have to be a subscriber to post pictures? I have tried numerous times without success.


Check your WU mail..
Quoting 1050. RitaEvac:


Was just there last Thursday and Friday....L'Auberge


Hope you enjoyed, Saturday was so hot in our area, yours too I'm sure. Come back.
1058. hydrus
24.48
72
Quoting 1057. bearinLA:


Hope you enjoyed, Saturday was so hot in our area, yours too I'm sure. Come back.


107 in Houston Saturday
1060. 62901IL
Quoting 1059. RitaEvac:


107 in Houston Saturday

HOT!!
GFS 99 hours possible system moving up towards La.
1062. 62901IL
Quoting 1061. Sfloridacat5:
GFS 99 hours possible system moving up towards La.

Hmmm....maybe Chantal?
1063. ricderr
GFS 99 hours possible system moving up towards La.


yep...that's a system alright.....now find us that cat 5
1064. ricderr
Hmmm....maybe Chantal?


yep...spot on 629...cus we know those models never waiver....good spot.....we will all chant your name on the holy days when chantal pans out
1065. 62901IL
Quoting 1063. ricderr:
GFS 99 hours possible system moving up towards La.


yep...that's a system alright.....now find us that cat 5

I can't belive i plussed your comment...that is wishcasting.
Quoting 62901IL:

Very nice joke...but the crayons never run out.

Oh, it wasn't a joke, I was being serious.

Doesn't everyone at the NHC have a paper ATL map and draw these circles on them?
Driving last week you could see the difference driving towards Beaumont on the way to Lake Charles how greener the grass was along I-10. Everything is LA was green, soon as you get west of Beaumont things start turning brown.

Quoting 1063. ricderr:
GFS 99 hours possible system moving up towards La.


yep...that's a system alright.....now find us that cat 5


Hope not. But this could be the year. Looks like an active pattern that could brings storms to the U.S. this year.
1069. 62901IL
Quoting 1068. Sfloridacat5:


Hope not. But this could be the year. Looks like an active pattern that could brings storms to the U.S. this year.

I hope there's no cat 5.
1070. hydrus
24
48
72
1071. ricderr
629......so as not to offend...let me first say much love and much respect.....i am the opposite of a wishcaster as i have been through 4 canes..also 2 home wrecking wind events and a hail event...i wish that on no one...i am a humorist....a cat 5 will be what mother nature says it is...nothing more and nothing less....i enjoy you and others whom i call weatherweenies..for your enthusiasm and love of weather...even when i think comments are absurd wrong and abashedly ignorant...it's my thoughts...up and until you can be equal to or close to those who have earned degrees in meteorology...then aren't we all wishcasters???... as we apply the small amount of knowledge that we have with guesses thoughts and hopes
1072. hydrus
Quoting 1071. ricderr:
629......so as not to offend...let me first say much love and much respect.....i am the opposite of a wishcaster as i have been through 4 canes..also 2 home wrecking wind events and a hail event...i wish that on no one...i am a humorist....a cat 5 will be what mother nature says it is...nothing more and nothing less....i enjoy you and others whom i call weatherweenies..for your enthusiasm and love of weather...even when i think comments are absurd wrong and abashedly ignorant...it's my thoughts...up and until you can be equal to or close to those who have earned degrees in meteorology...then aren't we all wishcasters???... as we apply the small amount of knowledge that we have with guesses thoughts and hopes
Sorry about your home wrecking event..sux dont it
Quoting 1072. hydrus:
Sorry about your home wrecking event..sux dont it

Yeah it does, I'm still trying to recover from Isaac. I feel for anyone who has been thru similar circumstances. That having been said, good morning all from cloudy, breezy NOLA. (doing my anti-storm dance).
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1009 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM TALLAPOOSA TO
BREMEN..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. AREAS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HARALSON COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED 2.5-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS SINCE 9 AM EDT.
1075. 62901IL
Quoting 1073. StormPro:

Yeah it does, I'm still trying to recover from Isaac. I feel for anyone who has been thru similar circumstances. That having been said, good morning all from cloudy, breezy NOLA. (doing my anti-storm dance).

Speaking of Hurricane Issac, i am currently making his position updates.
pcola, thanks...will continue to try.
1077. xcool
1078. hydrus
A lot of rain for the gulf.
Quoting 1025. HurricaneHunterJoe:


My buddy in Estero is so so happy! Like 7 inches at his house....says the lawns are green and the lakes are full. Bet he was doing an Irish jig during them storms the last 3 days.


I am a happy gardener here in SE Cape as well! Our lawns are green and our trees are putting out big flushes of bright new leaves. The mangoes and avocados are fatter by the hour and are now bending the branches.

Only downside is the mosquitoes. I wish someone would start a full-blown "dragonfly breeding program"! On the plus side, I am starting to see and hear more tree frogs :-) Nonetheless, last night I broke down and ordered a mosquito trap. Getting an Alpha by Mega Catch, since it was rated as considerably better than Mosquito Magnet in the websites I checked out. I'll let the blog know if it actually works....
1080. hydrus
Quoting 1073. StormPro:

Yeah it does, I'm still trying to recover from Isaac. I feel for anyone who has been thru similar circumstances. That having been said, good morning all from cloudy, breezy NOLA. (doing my anti-storm dance).
)2004 was the worst year I have experienced on Earth.
So in conclusion Texas won't be killing storms this year?.
Quoting 1080. hydrus:
)2004 was the worst year I have experienced on Earth.

Yeah I had K in 05 and then Gustov|Ike and last year Isaac just finished kicking my butt. 04 was horrible for y'all in Fla for sure
1083. 62901IL
Quoting 1082. StormPro:

Yeah I had K in 05 and then Gustov|Ike and last year Isaac just finished kicking my butt. 04 was horrible for y'all in Fla for sure

Uhm...lemme check that.
1084. hydrus
Quoting 1079. OrchidGrower:


I am a happy gardener here in SE Cape as well! Our lawns are green and our trees are putting out big flushes of bright new leaves. The mangoes and avocados are fatter by the hour and are now bending the branches.

Only downside is the mosquitoes. I wish someone would start a full-blown "dragonfly breeding program"! On the plus side, I am starting to see and hear more tree frogs :-) Nonetheless, last night I broke down and ordered a mosquito trap. Getting an Alpha by Mega Catch, since it was rated as considerably better than Mosquito Magnet in the websites I checked out. I'll let the blog know if it actually works....
Dad surveyed there in the 60,s. I went there in the 70,s..The cape has changed beyond words.
Quoting 1010. weathermanwannabe:


I used to work with her over there.......I am sure she will be on shortly with a report. Probably in the process of securing the horses and such on the farm from all the rain.
Hey Guys! For the past hour or so, the heaviest of rain is training right up HWY 79 from PCBeach through Bonifay and right up to our house and on up into Hartford, AL. A friend with a store in town (Bonifay) just sent me a picture from The Front Porch --- you can't see the stores located across the highway because of the rain. Everyone stay safe out there -- especially if you are having to drive!

Wind shear relaxing near AOI.
Quoting 1083. 62901IL:

Uhm...lemme check that.

Check what?
1088. 62901IL
Quoting 1087. StormPro:

Check what?

Whether or not 2004 was a bad year for florida.
1089. Patrap
Just posting the latest CIMMS wind sheer chart. Some pretty high sheer levels in the Northern Gulf due to the pressure gradient as a result of the low.

Link

Also note the current position of the southern jet over/near the LA coast; not very condusive to support tropical low formation before the low moves onshore.

Link
1091. Grothar
Quoting 1077. xcool:


Hey xcool. I haven't seen you since last year. How you been?

Things getting interesting. Blob beginning to split. The one in the NE Gulf is of interest.

1092. Patrap
"Boomage"

1093. 62901IL
Quoting 1091. Grothar:


Hey xcool. I haven't seen you since last year. How you been?

Things getting interesting. Blob beginning to split. The one in the NE Gulf is of interest.


Gro, if this thing develops, i want you and me on tropics talk tracking it.
Quoting 1085. HondosGirl:
Hey Guys! For the past hour or so, the heaviest of rain is training right up HWY 79 from PCBeach through Bonifay and right up to our house and on up into Hartford, AL. A friend with a store in town (Bonifay) just sent me a picture from The Front Porch --- you can't see the stores located across the highway because of the rain. Everyone stay safe out there -- especially if you are having to drive!


You stay safe Girl............
1095. bappit
Quoting 1005. indianrivguy:


Dexter ROCKS!

tourist tree ehhh

We are all tourists.
Quoting 1038. Sfloridacat5:
Tropical Update on TWC stated that there are 3 possible systems in the next week or so.
2 in the GOM and 1 heading towards Florida.
Good thing its not September.
I dont see anything coming out of this feature in the gulf just a heavy rainfall threat if you want to track a real system wait till mid july thats when the fireworks will really start in my opinion.
1098. 62901IL
Quoting 1096. unknowncomic:
Good thing its not September.

Yeah, because we'll have a helluva lot of storms.
Quoting 1086. HurricaneAndre:

Wind shear relaxing near AOI.


What part of that image shows shear relaxing? If anything the AOI is in a contoured region of +10kts of wind shear tendency over the past 24 hours.
1100. ricderr
I dont see anything coming out of this feature in the gulf just a heavy rainfall threat if you want to track a real system wait till mid july thats when the fireworks will really start in my opinion.




spot on and probabilities agree with you...but if not watching it...what shall we do....talk about dogs...the economic conditions of third world countries....or tie 629 to a stake and beat him about the head and shoulders?
1101. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Isolated 2 " amounts

this radar may be overdoing it with the 5" since 8am in west GA.
But we'll see.



tonight/tomorrow is the big rain day.

Good morning, Georgia. That radar mus have picked up some kind of weird anomaly in the area of the supposed 5" rains. I was up until 0330 with a sick cat and there was never enough rain in that area to have accumulated more than an inch, if that.

The moisture fetch has just shifted about 75 miles west, so the rain is coming right up my street. This is the perfect set up for moderate to occasionally heavy rain from eastern AL up through Atlanta and then eastern TN and points north. It looks like most of central southern FL will finally catch a break. The rain looks more impressive on radar than it really is so far. It's been raining for about an hour and I've only picked up .10". I can believe totals of 2" to 4" generally by Sunday but, except for very isolated locations, I don't see much more than that. I think PA and WV may actually get the greatest amount of rain out of this "thing".
Models seeing two weak storms.One maybe a depression and the other a actual storm.I'm rooting on Dorian being a beautiful Cape Verde storm.
Quoting 1099. boltdwright:


What part of that image shows shear relaxing? If anything the AOI is in a contoured region of +10kts of wind shear tendency over the past 24 hours.
around the BOC.
Quoting 1098. 62901IL:

Yeah, because we'll have a helluva lot of storms.
Myabe Doughnut Hole Ones too.
Quoting 1100. ricderr:
I dont see anything coming out of this feature in the gulf just a heavy rainfall threat if you want to track a real system wait till mid july thats when the fireworks will really start in my opinion.




spot on and probabilities agree with you...but if not watching it...what shall we do....talk about dogs...the economic conditions of third world countries....or tie 629 to a stake and beat him about the head and shoulders?
Good point eh i guess watching a blob in the gulf is a lot better than talking about global warming and politics anyday.
1106. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
I dont see anything coming out of this feature in the gulf just a heavy rainfall threat if you want to track a real system wait till mid july thats when the fireworks will really start in my opinion.




spot on and probabilities agree with you...but if not watching it...what shall we do....talk about dogs...the economic conditions of third world countries....or tie 629 to a stake and beat him about the head and shoulders?

I vote for the latter. :-) :-)
Quoting 1095. bappit:

We are all tourists.


speak for yourself sir... we've been here since before Florida was a state. :)

It is called a tourist tree because it gets red in the sun, then peels....
Quoting 1103. HurricaneAndre:
around the BOC.


The BOC was not the AOI for this system that the NHC has outline.
Quoting 1103. HurricaneAndre:
around the BOC.
Still upper level winds are not conducive for development at this time patience.
1110. 62901IL
Quoting 1106. sar2401:

I vote for the latter. :-) :-)

I vote for the first option.
1111. xcool
Grothar hey. working 24/7 Take Care of My Son ;)
Ten Very Vulnerable Cities That Have not experience a direct hit from A Major Hurricane in awhile.

Had to take out the word overdue because it is a commonly misused word around here.

Link

Summary of years since a Major Hurricane:
1) Tampa ~ 91...Tampa...Tampa.
2) Naples ~ 52
3) Jacksonville ~ 48
4) Honolulu ~ N/A (Iniki in 1992 Hurricane was the most powerful hurricane to hit Hawaii in recorded history.)
5) Savannah ~ 33
6) Mobile ~ 33
7) Houston ~ 29
8) Charleston ~ 24
9) Providence ~ 21
10) Key West ~ 7

I did my list in sequential order from longest to recent.
1113. ricderr
I vote for the latter. :-) :-)


duly noted.....if we get enough agreement i will supply the stake and rope
Quoting 1103. HurricaneAndre:
around the BOC.


I might also add that in the image you posted, the zero-shear tendency contour is not even in the BOC indicating that shear has increased in the BOC over the past day.
1115. 62901IL
Quoting 1113. ricderr:
I vote for the latter. :-) :-)


duly noted.....if we get enough agreement i will supply the stake and rope

No...don't. I will be more appropirate.
Quoting 1094. weathermanwannabe:


You stay safe Girl............
....sorely regretting not buying those rubber cowboy boots I saw on sale at Tractor Supply on Sunday.....think they may have come in handy over the next day or so....
There is a "squeeze" play going on (between the low and adjacent ridges)with all of the Gulf moisture being funneled into the Northern Gulf coast. As I look at the additional convection firing off-shore, I am thinking that all the rain pops are going up (as Tally NWS did) and that we are going to get a lot more rain from this than originally thought........Big local and river flooding issue setting up for the next several days............Potentially, the same amount of rain as to slow moving tropical storm without the wind speeds.
1118. Patrap
NOLA Slidell Long Range

I also want to add of my 24 years of living in Largo, FL. I have never witnessed sustained winds over 75 mph. Now we did have a gust of 80 mph. during Frances or Jeanne. Can't remember which one now. I have also heard from some folks on here that state Donna brought sustained winds of 90 mph. to Tampa.
1120. Patrap
..They call me Mellow Yellow'

looks like a long holiday weekend of weather watching for me
Quoting 1100. ricderr:
I dont see anything coming out of this feature in the gulf just a heavy rainfall threat if you want to track a real system wait till mid july thats when the fireworks will really start in my opinion.




spot on and probabilities agree with you...but if not watching it...what shall we do....talk about dogs...the economic conditions of third world countries....or tie 629 to a stake and beat him about the head and shoulders?
You mean no fireworks for the 4th? :(
Quoting 1067. RitaEvac:
Driving last week you could see the difference driving towards Beaumont on the way to Lake Charles how greener the grass was along I-10. Everything is LA was green, soon as you get west of Beaumont things start turning brown.



And still managed a marsh fire in Sabine Pass yesterday.
1124. hydrus
Quoting 1119. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I also want to add of my 24 years of living in Largo, FL. I have never witnessed sustained winds over 75 mph. Now we did have a gust of 80 mph. during Frances or Jeanne. Can't remember which one now. I have also heard from some folks on here that state Donna brought sustained winds of 90 mph. to Tampa.
Tampa seems to get the reputation that it does not get storms or hurricane forced winds. That is a false statement. Tampa has received many more wind events than purported . One day I will post them.
Quoting 1091. Grothar:


Hey xcool. I haven't seen you since last year. How you been?

Things getting interesting. Blob beginning to split. The one in the NE Gulf is of interest.



Ahh it seems as though it was just yesterday (2012) that we were enjoying Blobology. So glad its that time of the year again :)
Holmes County just moved from a Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Warning....LOL -- sitting here at the office on the blog reading about the weather, but for a moment we couldn't figure out that the alarm we were hearing was the weather radio alerting us to the updated warning!
4"/hr rain..died down now but it was there.


What does "AOI" stand for?
1129. barbamz
Quoting 1034. Xyrus2000:


I can. You should have a look at what happens when the private sector gets a hold of some "common good" activities. Read some history, like when fire and police departments were private. "That's a real nice house you got there. It'd be a shame if something should happen to it." ... (snip)


In Germany more than 20 years ago our public National Weather Service DWD was challenged by a new private weather company (Meteomedia), founded by the somehow adventurous and surely entertaining selfmade weatherman Kachelmann from Switzerland. Overall I think this new competiton was good as our old DWD was forced to strengthen it's public presence and services, too. Weather watching certainly became more interesting since then. People - especially in german weatherblogs, as you can imagine, lol - like to compare the warnings from both organisations and assess afterwards which one was better. I know a guy from the administration of the DWD, and when I met him from time to time I always like to tease him a bit with the private competitor, lol, and he will explain me once again certain public rules which are obligatory for his own service.

I don't think it would be a good idea to skip the public Weather Service in favor of the private one. Meteomedia, the private one, is said to have set up local weatherstations in some spots with very extreme temperatures (f.e. at Funtensee, the cold spot of Germany), so that they could provide sensational news about records etc.; and the company came into severe trouble some years ago because of the lifestyle of it's founder.

BTW hello everybody!
Quoting 1128. Jwd41190:
What does "AOI" stand for?
Area of interest
Quoting 1130. alexhurricane1991:
Area of interest

ahhh..ok thanks.
Quoting 1131. Jwd41190:

ahhh..ok thanks.
No problem
Quoting 1124. hydrus:
Tampa seems to get the reputation that it does not get storms or hurricane forced winds. That is a false statement. Tampa has received many more wind events than purported . One day I will post them.
Yeah when you find them must post it for us Hydrus. I really would like to see when those weather events took place. I was young in '93 when that Cyclonic Blizzard blew threw the Southeast and drag a derecho through Tampa Bay. I also heard barges where washed up onshore, so the winds had to be plenty enough strong to do that.
1134. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ten Very Vulnerable Cities That Have not experience a direct hit from A Major Hurricane in awhile.

Had to take out the word overdue because it is a commonly misused word around here.

Link

Summary of years since a Major Hurricane:
1) Tampa ~ 91...Tampa...Tampa.
2) Naples ~ 52
3) Jacksonville ~ 48
4) Honolulu ~ N/A (Iniki in 1992 Hurricane was the most powerful hurricane to hit Hawaii in recorded history.)
5) Savannah ~ 33
6) Mobile ~ 33
7) Houston ~ 29
8) Charleston ~ 24
9) Providence ~ 21
10) Key West ~ 7

I did my list in sequential order from longest to recent.

Good morning, Caleb. did you finally get some sleep?

Of course, Tampa remains on the top of the list, given the whole shield thing. 8-) The one I worry about more than any other is Mobile. The SLOSH maps of the storm surge from a major hurricane making a direct south hit on Mobile Bay are very sobering. The surge 3 foot line doesn't stop until almost 40 miles inland. The topography of Mobile Bay makes it so vulnerable to extreme surge, and evacuating Mobile is on the level of dificulty as evacuating New Orleans. It's been almost an entire generation since anyone there experienced a major hurricane, and evacuation, rescue, and relief efforts will require coordination with three states, none of which have shown much inclination to plan and work with each other. If this trough in the Gulf now was a major hurricane, Mobile would be in big trouble.
1135. 7544
morning looks like that mess to the west of fla wants to move more east today ?
Quoting 1126. HondosGirl:
Holmes County just moved from a Flood Watch to a Flash Flood Warning....LOL -- sitting here at the office on the blog reading about the weather, but for a moment we couldn't figure out that the alarm we were hearing was the weather radio alerting us to the updated warning!


Looking at the radar loops, lots more rain coming up your way from the coast......You might want to call the store to see if the rubber boots are still in stock.
1137. ricderr
I also want to add of my 24 years of living in Largo, FL. I have never witnessed sustained winds over 75 mph. Now we did have a gust of 80 mph. during Frances or Jeanne.



excellent post gt......i now reside in el paso...where yearly...we can expect winds exceeding tropical force 6 plus times a hear and a few hurricane force winds...but since nothing is named...no one cares...well...we who live though the dust they bring...we care
Quoting 1112. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ten Very Vulnerable Cities That Have not experience a direct hit from A Major Hurricane in awhile.

Had to take out the word overdue because it is a commonly misused word around here.

Link

Summary of years since a Major Hurricane:
1) Tampa ~ 91...Tampa...Tampa.
2) Naples ~ 52
3) Jacksonville ~ 48
4) Honolulu ~ N/A (Iniki in 1992 Hurricane was the most powerful hurricane to hit Hawaii in recorded history.)
5) Savannah ~ 33
6) Mobile ~ 33
7) Houston ~ 29
8) Charleston ~ 24
9) Providence ~ 21
10) Key West ~ 7

I did my list in sequential order from longest to recent.


Hard to believe Alicia was 30 years ago.
1139. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is active

1140. ricderr
You mean no fireworks for the 4th? :(


well..i think that would entail us blowing up 629...quite messy and i suspect highly illegal...but hey...i'm game if everyone else is :-)
Quoting 1047. bearinLA:


The weather service here in Lake Charles mentions rain, but nothing else.? I just watch and read so just curious about the models. Most of this is over my head, but I read it anyway. Thanks to all from southwest Louisiana.
Here's your blob.

1142. ricderr
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop




i see the eye
1143. hydrus

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 am CDT Wednesday Jul 03 2013


Valid 031300z - 041200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of nm and eastern Arizona...


..There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central/eastern
Gulf CST states...


...
Great Basin anticyclone will gradually weaken and settle a bit southward
this period as additional Pacific shortwave impulses track along its
northern fringe into SW Canada. Farther east...MS valley/eastern plains trough/low
should remain nearly stationary as several embedded smaller-scale
disturbances rotate around it...and west Atlantic ridge continues
building westward. Associated tightening of height gradient will yield
anomalously strong/deep southerly flow over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and
southeast.


Features will remain weak at the surface. Diffuse area of low pressure
now over the north central Gulf should become better defined through the
period and drift north to the central Gulf CST by 12z Thursday as associated
inverted trough extends north-northeast into the upper Tennessee Valley. Elsewhere...a weak
cold front and Lee trough attendant to a passing shortwave trough in
Canada will affect the northern High Plains. The above-mentioned surface
features...in addition to terrain-induced circulations in the west
and vorticity maxima within the central U.S. Trough...will yield pockets of
strong to potentially severe storms later today through early Thursday.


..nm/eastern Arizona this afternoon into tonight...
Somewhat drier air has spread southward into northern Arizona and nm since
yesterday...and satellite at this time does not suggest the presence of a
well-defined upstream upper impulse to focus ascent across the region
as was the case yesterday. Nevertheless...strong surface heating and
terrain circulations amidst the continuing presence of anomalously
strong/deep northerly flow should promote another round of strong to severe
afternoon storms over the northern/central nm mountains and perhaps NE Arizona. Wind
and thermodynamic considerations suggest this activity will once
again move/develop generally south-southwest in the form of one or more
clusters. The storms could pose a risk for severe hail /mainly during
the early stages of development/ and wind/local haboob conditions
through early tonight.


..cntrl Gulf CST/southeast U.S. Today through early Thursday...
fairly widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected through the period from
the central/eastern Gulf CST north-northeast into the upper Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians.
Activity will be fostered by strengthening confluence in plume of
very moist air /pws at or above 2 inches/ associated with westward-expanding
Atlantic ridge. Uplift also will be focused along and NE of northern Gulf
surface low/trough.


While near-surface winds likely will remain weak...as 850-700 mb layer
flow intensifies to 30-40 kts tonight and early Thursday setup could yield
embedded low-level mesos and a risk for tornadoes...especially in the
Florida Panhandle region and parts of Georgia/southeast Alabama. In the near-term...a more
limited risk for isolated tornadoes could evolve in vicinity of inverted trough
over southeast la/southern MS...where surface winds will remain backed to Ely
beneath modest southerly flow aloft.

Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A warm 73 degrees and humid. But some wonderful rain! Sadly, my sinus cavity doesn't adjust to barometric changes so I get wonderful headaches when the weather changes, hence my coming in late. But I loved the rain!

Brunch is on the sideboard: eggs benedict, French toast with syrup or fresh fruit, large cinnamon rolls drizzled with a delicious sugar glaze, biscuits with sausage gravy, bacon and thick fried ham slices, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, sliced roast beef, cheesy potatoes au gratin, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange or apple juice. Where possible, all ingredients used with heart healthy ingredients. Note the little cards next to each that have a red heart to indicate heart healthy. Enjoy!
1145. Patrap
One good thing about Se. La, one doesn't have to go "Storm Chasing", just sit back and relax and one will usually come along soon nuff.

; )
Quoting 1141. unknowncomic:
Here's your blob.



Does that show the blob coming to the LA/TX border? Looks for where I put the advil
Quoting 1145. Patrap:
One good thing about Se. La, one doesn't have to go "Storm Chasing", just sit back and relax and one will usually come along soon nuff.

; )


from here it looks like they hunt you down... day after day...
It is expected to move a little more east this morning/late afternoon as the area of low pressure it drawn to the north-northeast over the next 12-18 hours. A strengthening 850mb jet will also give a better chance for tornadoes later today. Winds were 25kts this morning at around 8am but have since increased to 30kts and is holding steady. Pretty good shear in the lower levels currently and a veering wind profile (clockwise turning of winds with increasing height) will help these storms acquire some rotation. Tornadoes, if they occur today, will be very similar to tropical storm type tornadoes.

Quoting 1135. 7544:
morning looks like that mess to the west of fla wants to move more east today ?
1149. ricderr
just sit back and relax and one will usually come along soon nuff

everyone sing with me gilligan island style...

just sit right back and you'll hear a tale....a tale of a fateful cane...that started in the gulf of mexico and ruined patraps house...and ruined patraps house
1150. hydrus
Quoting 1138. AtHomeInTX:


Hard to believe Alicia was 30 years ago.
If memory serves me, it formed off an old frontal boundary.

Hurricane Alicia before landfall.
Formed August 15, 1983
Dissipated August 20, 1983
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
115 mph (185 km/h)
Lowest pressure 962 mbar (hPa); 28.41 inHg
Fatalities 21 direct
Damage $2.6 billion (1983 USD)
Areas affected Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska.Wiki.
This set-up reminds me of the training bands from Tropical Storm Allison a few years ago that flooded the Big-Bend after she moved on-shore with almost 20 inches of flooding rain. Nowhere near that amount with this one but we might be looking at 7-12 inches or more from this low when all is said and done.
1152. Patrap
ric, ya best work on yer Huma' it's really sorely lacking in "oomph"

I teach Blogging 101 on da weekends via skype, shall I pen you in for Next Sunday?

I have 3 pm CDT available.



Australian Bureau models take La Nina in peak of the hurricane season!!!!
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah when you find them must post it for us Hydrus. I really would like to see when those weather events took place. I was young in '93 when that Cyclonic Blizzard blew threw the Southeast and drag a derecho through Tampa Bay. I also heard barges where washed up onshore, so the winds had to be plenty enough strong to do that.


Tampa Tropical Cyclone history from 1852 to Barry 2007

outer island kauai took the brunt from iniki like iwa in the 80s honolulu barely had tropical storm winds.
1156. sar2401
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A warm 73 degrees and humid. But some wonderful rain! Sadly, my sinus cavity doesn't adjust to barometric changes so I get wonderful headaches when the weather changes, hence my coming in late. But I loved the rain!

Brunch is on the sideboard: eggs benedict, French toast with syrup or fresh fruit, large cinnamon rolls drizzled with a delicious sugar glaze, biscuits with sausage gravy, bacon and thick fried ham slices, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, sliced roast beef, cheesy potatoes au gratin, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange or apple juice. Where possible, all ingredients used with heart healthy ingredients. Note the little cards next to each that have a red heart to indicate heart healthy. Enjoy!

Mmmm...yummy as usual. Sorry about your sinuses. These changes in barometric pressure do a number on my neck too. The epidural did not help much, I'm afraid. The rain is fantastic though. My lawn and garden haven't looked this good in July in many years. As long as we just get some nice, steady rain, it will be a good thing for most of us west of Georgia. We have a flash flood watch out until Saturday (!) morning, but I'm hoping that there's nothing widespread.
1157. Dakster
Quoting 1142. ricderr:
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop




i see the eye


What eye?
this is wild!! I see three storm to watch..
1159. ricderr
yeah...but i'm trying to be kinder and gentler....it was easier when i could go raw dog...now i'm trying more of laugh usa style...i'll get the henag of it...or else...end up the unknown comic
Quoting 1146. aislinnpaps:


Does that show the blob coming to the LA/TX border? Looks for where I put the advil
Roughly but right side is usually worse.
1161. hydrus
Quoting 1133. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah when you find them must post it for us Hydrus. I really would like to see when those weather events took place. I was young in '93 when that Cyclonic Blizzard blew threw the Southeast and drag a derecho through Tampa Bay. I also heard barges where washed up onshore, so the winds had to be plenty enough strong to do that.
I was at work in Charlotte County. I remember it very well.
1162. Thrawst
Lol @ the size of Dalila :D

1163. ricderr
What eye?



dak..it's an old joke...when i first started blogging here....one the weatherweenie high points....was to be able to say you were the first one that spotted the eye of the hurricane...people were "spotting" eyes in blobs....so now...i find an eye in every blob
Yet another below average melt day on the Greenland Ice Sheet yesterday, continuing a two week trend. Probably related to those extreme loops in the jet stream.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Quoting 1128. Jwd41190:
What does "AOI" stand for?
Area Of Interest.
1166. Patrap
Best o Luck then
Quoting 1134. sar2401:

Good morning, Caleb. did you finally get some sleep?

Of course, Tampa remains on the top of the list, given the whole shield thing. 8-) The one I worry about more than any other is Mobile. The SLOSH map of the storm surge from a major hurricane making a direct south hit on Mobile Bay are very sobering. The surge 3 foot line doesn't stop until almost 40 miles inland. The topography of Mobile Bay makes it so vulnerable to extreme surge, and evacuating Mobile is on the level of dificulty as evacuating New Orleans. It's been almost an entire generation since anyone there experienced a major hurricane, and evacuation, rescue, and relief efforts will require coordination with three states, none of which have shown much inclination to plan and work with each other. If this trough in the Gulf now was a major hurricane, Mobile would be in big trouble.

I so agree with you Sar..... and they thought New Orleans was bad..... I could not just how bad it would be.... Fredrick came in as a dry hurricane but then when Katrina hit we had over 20' of surge. The mind wonders just how bad it would be for a direct Hit:0( just saying

Taco :o)
70 hrs. from now... GFS keeps developing that low N of PR....

Quoting stormchaser19:
Australian Bureau models take La Nina in peak of the season!!!!

It's a forecast, not set in stone. Things can and will change. Just need to sit back and watch.
1170. Dakster
Quoting 1163. ricderr:

What eye?



dak..it's an old joke...when i first started blogging here of one the weatherweenie high points....was to be able you were the first one that spotted the eye of the hurricane...people were "spotting" eyes in blobs....so now...i find an eye in every blob


I know - I was here then. I was trying to set you up for the joke, since you get upset when I throw my one liners in. ;)

All good...
1171. 62901IL
The AOI seems to be gaining more convection.
1172. ricderr
know - I was here then. I was trying to set you up for the joke, since you get upset when I throw my one liners in. ;)



my apologies dak...next time you pitch it...i'll hit it back atcha
Quoting 1160. unknowncomic:
Roughly but right side is usually worse.


Ahh, but if it goes up the Sabine River dividing the two states, I am on the right side.
Quoting 1171. 62901IL:
The AOI seems to be gaining more convection.
yeah but no organization to speak of shear is not conducive for development at this time.
Quoting 1134. sar2401:

Good morning, Caleb. did you finally get some sleep?

Of course, Tampa remains on the top of the list, given the whole shield thing. 8-) The one I worry about more than any other is Mobile. The SLOSH maps of the storm surge from a major hurricane making a direct south hit on Mobile Bay are very sobering. The surge 3 foot line doesn't stop until almost 40 miles inland. The topography of Mobile Bay makes it so vulnerable to extreme surge, and evacuating Mobile is on the level of dificulty as evacuating New Orleans. It's been almost an entire generation since anyone there experienced a major hurricane, and evacuation, rescue, and relief efforts will require coordination with three states, none of which have shown much inclination to plan and work with each other. If this trough in the Gulf now was a major hurricane, Mobile would be in big trouble.
Good morning SAR

I got some sleep, but for the most part I was restless all night. I just took some antibiotics for the sore throat with advil for the body aches. Eating some soup now. I have what I always get when I get sick, an upper respiratory infection, so knowing that it should go away in a few days, so long as I stay on top of my meds. Thanks for asking.

Quoting 1169. AussieStorm:

It's a forecast, not set in stone. Things can and will change. Just need to sit back and watch.


Certainly it's a forecast, but the Australian models are quite accurate..
1178. 62901IL
Quoting 1174. alexhurricane1991:
yeah but no organization to speak of shear is not conducive for development at this time.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting 1134. sar2401:

Good morning, Caleb. did you finally get some sleep?

Of course, Tampa remains on the top of the list, given the whole shield thing. 8-) The one I worry about more than any other is Mobile. The SLOSH maps of the storm surge from a major hurricane making a direct south hit on Mobile Bay are very sobering. The surge 3 foot line doesn't stop until almost 40 miles inland. The topography of Mobile Bay makes it so vulnerable to extreme surge, and evacuating Mobile is on the level of dificulty as evacuating New Orleans. It's been almost an entire generation since anyone there experienced a major hurricane, and evacuation, rescue, and relief efforts will require coordination with three states, none of which have shown much inclination to plan and work with each other. If this trough in the Gulf now was a major hurricane, Mobile would be in big trouble.


As a resident of Mobile, I too worry about surge. The building I manage (Exploreum) got 4' of water inside one wing. A full blown 3 coming due north and hitting along the Miss/Ala border would be a disaster. Fortunately I live near the water treatment plant which was built on the highest ground (so the gravity could move the water if necessary). If my residence floods there are a lot of other things to worry about (like where did that asteroid come from).
Here are the current conditions at the bouys in the Eastern Gulf; no pressure drops reported at this time:

Off-Shore of Tampa

Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 14:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (161)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 81.7 F


ESE of Pensacola

Station 42039
NDBC
Location: 28.794N 86.006W
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 14:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (140) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F


South of Apalachicola

Station SGOF1
NDBC
Location: 29.407N 84.863W
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 15:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (170) at 22.9 kt gusting to 25.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.6 F
Dew Point: 72.1 F



Quoting 1163. ricderr:
What eye?



dak..it's an old joke...when i first started blogging here....one the weatherweenie high points....was to be able to say you were the first one that spotted the eye of the hurricane...people were "spotting" eyes in blobs....so now...i find an eye in every blob
OMG I "So" remember that LOL

Taco :o)
Quoting 1171. 62901IL:
The AOI seems to be gaining more convection.


err.. loos like a jumbled mess to me
here we go!!!
Quoting 1178. 62901IL:

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
I said at this time and it also says COULD become marginally conducive.
Today's SAL:



Going to be keeping on eye on this AOI in the Gulf with you guys as well, at least it's better than bickering.
Quoting 1168. sunlinepr:
70 hrs. from now... GFS keeps developing that low N of PR....

RUT ROW
1191. 62901IL
Quoting 1186. weatherh98:


err.. loos like a jumbled mess to me

There is no visible COC yet, but convection is increasing.
Quoting 1173. aislinnpaps:


Ahh, but if it goes up the Sabine River dividing the two states, I am on the right side.


Or is that I'm on the 'wrong' side?
Quoting 1180. weathermanwannabe:
Here are the current conditions at the bouys in the Eastern Gulf:

Off-Shore of Tampa

Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 14:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (161°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 81.7 F


ESE of Pensacola

Station 42039
NDBC
Location: 28.794N 86.006W
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 14:50:00 UTC

Winds: SE (140°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F


South of Apalachicola

Station SGOF1
NDBC
Location: 29.407N 84.863W
Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2013 15:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 22.9 kt gusting to 25.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and rising
Air Temperature: 76.6 F
Dew Point: 72.1 F



so in other words nothing happening except a lot of rain.
1194. 62901IL
Quoting 1188. alexhurricane1991:
I said at this time and it also says COULD become marginally conducive.

OK. My prediction is we could be looking at chantal soon.
Hope I'm not wishcasting.
Quoting 1154. AussieStorm:


Tampa Tropical Cyclone history from 1852 to Barry 2007

1848 Hurricane from one of the bloggers here at Wunderground. Link
Quoting 1193. alexhurricane1991:
so in other words nothing happening except a lot of rain.


Correct....................IMHO.
Quoting 1163. ricderr:
What eye?



dak..it's an old joke...when i first started blogging here....one the weatherweenie high points....was to be able to say you were the first one that spotted the eye of the hurricane...people were "spotting" eyes in blobs....so now...i find an eye in every blob


Grothar runs the First Blob, Eye and Over My House Bureau now... He's got everyone except Taz toeing the line...
1198. Grothar
AOI

Area of Interest (In case everybody missed it)
1199. 7544
wouldnt it be cool if dr m can add a location spot on the blog maybe by the join date . just sayin all these post like ,in my area , coming twoards me , we gettin the storm , ect ect no one knows where or what state you are in just a thought lol .
1200. hydrus
Quoting 1194. 62901IL:

OK. My prediction is we could be looking at chantal soon.
Hope I'm not wishcasting.
That is wishcasting i know your excited about this hurricane season being active but not every blob is going to become a tropical system dont worry you will get your storms soon.
1202. 62901IL
Quoting 1201. alexhurricane1991:
That is wishcasting i know your excited about this hurricane season being active but not every blob is going to become a tropical system dont worry you will get your storms soon.

ok
Quoting 1134. sar2401:

Good morning, Caleb. did you finally get some sleep?

Of course, Tampa remains on the top of the list, given the whole shield thing. 8-) The one I worry about more than any other is Mobile. The SLOSH maps of the storm surge from a major hurricane making a direct south hit on Mobile Bay are very sobering. The surge 3 foot line doesn't stop until almost 40 miles inland. The topography of Mobile Bay makes it so vulnerable to extreme surge, and evacuating Mobile is on the level of dificulty as evacuating New Orleans. It's been almost an entire generation since anyone there experienced a major hurricane, and evacuation, rescue, and relief efforts will require coordination with three states, none of which have shown much inclination to plan and work with each other. If this trough in the Gulf now was a major hurricane, Mobile would be in big trouble.


When Katrina hit in '05, Mobile got a real taste of what could happen. 90 miles from the center of the storm, but the surge flooded downtown and went all the way up Government Street to Barton Academy, easily 1000 meters or more inland. Moreover, there are some 25 miles of communities south of Mobile in the not-so-rural-anymore county, ending at the Gulf.

Katrina tied the 300-year flood mark for Mobile, and that was without anything like a direct hit.

My family's rural property was a good 20 miles or so south of Mobile, on a high crest overlooking tidal river. It had never been submerged by any storm in anyone's memory -- not in the Great Hurricane of '06 nor even in Frederic in '79. But Georges in '98, a weaker storm, came very close. Katrina submerged it under at least 3 feet of water. I can only assume the astonishing amount of gas pumping by Shell and others in the '80s and '90s, plus sea-level rise, account for much of that change.

Nonetheless, one direct hit from a major like those we saw in '05 will wreak incredible damage on the City of Mobile and all the other communities surrounding Mobile Bay. The bay itself is a classic funnel with an incredibly shallow floor.
1204. barbamz

Tropical waves from Africa running high.
1205. Patrap
I joined 8 years ago today, to get xtra Radar Frames as Cindy 05 was forming off the Yucatan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005
Quoting 1198. Grothar:
AOI

Area of Interest (In case everybody missed it)


Ya..

AOI=area of interest
1208. 62901IL
Quoting 1205. Patrap:
I joined 8 years ago today, to get xtra Radar Frames a Cindy 05 was forming off the Yucatan

Congratulations on being here for 8 years!!!!!!!!!!
1209. Matt74
Quoting 1144. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A warm 73 degrees and humid. But some wonderful rain! Sadly, my sinus cavity doesn't adjust to barometric changes so I get wonderful headaches when the weather changes, hence my coming in late. But I loved the rain!

Brunch is on the sideboard: eggs benedict, French toast with syrup or fresh fruit, large cinnamon rolls drizzled with a delicious sugar glaze, biscuits with sausage gravy, bacon and thick fried ham slices, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, sliced roast beef, cheesy potatoes au gratin, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange or apple juice. Where possible, all ingredients used with heart healthy ingredients. Note the little cards next to each that have a red heart to indicate heart healthy. Enjoy!
Sounds good, but that's a heart attack waiting to happen right there.
Very funny storms but it's nothing more than a little spin yet..too early for svr wx now.



watch for these spinups late tonight into tomorrow...may see 1 or so in the SE.



But one thing is certain someone will get a lot of rain from this.
Quoting 1203. OrchidGrower:


When Katrina hit in '05, Mobile got a real taste of what could happen. 90 miles from the center of the storm, but the surge flooded downtown and went all the way up Government Street to Barton Academy, easily 1000 meters or more inland. Moreover, there are some 25 miles of communities south of Mobile in the not-so-rural-anymore county, ending at the Gulf.

Katrina tied the 300-year flood mark for Mobile, and that was without anything like a direct hit.

My family's rural property was a good 20 miles or so south of Mobile, on a high crest overlooking tidal river. It had never been submerged by any storm in anyone's memory -- not in the Great Hurricane of '06 nor even in Frederic in '79. But Georges in '98, a weaker storm, came very close. Katrina submerged it under at least 3 feet of water. I can only assume the astonishing amount of gas pumping by Shell and others in the '80s and '90s, plus sea-level rise, account for much of that change.

Nonetheless, one direct hit from a major like those we saw in '05 will wreak incredible damage on the City of Mobile and all the other communities surrounding Mobile Bay. The bay itself is a classic funnel with an incredibly shallow floor.

Well Said and good to see you again....

Taco :o)
The blobs could pull a sneak attack on us.Either way it'll be the same though with gusty rain showers.
1214. 62901IL
Quoting 1210. GeorgiaStormz:
Very funny storms but it's nothing more than a little spin yet..too early for svr wx now.



watch for these spinups late tonight into tomorrow...may see 1 or so in the SE.




Stay safe.
1215. Dakster
Quoting 1172. ricderr:
know - I was here then. I was trying to set you up for the joke, since you get upset when I throw my one liners in. ;)



my apologies dak...next time you pitch it...i'll hit it back atcha


Just remember I'm no catcher though...

Also waiting for the famous PIN HOLE EYE comment from a certain blogger. But at least that person waits for it to be real.
I'm off to be folks. Stay well, Stay safe.

Goodnight.

P.S Congrats Pat on 8yrs on WU. It'll be 6yrs for me on September 30. I wonder if we'll be tracking a hurricane then.
1217. hydrus
Quoting 1204. barbamz:

Tropical waves from Africa running high.
That wave in the Atlantic looks formidable. ...To say the least.
1218. Patrap
Get some rest down under aussie,thanks .
1219. hydrus
Folks heading outta Galveston to Cozumel on cruise can expect rough seas and rain this weekend according to Tim Heller's Facebook page
1221. hydrus
Quoting 1144. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A warm 73 degrees and humid. But some wonderful rain! Sadly, my sinus cavity doesn't adjust to barometric changes so I get wonderful headaches when the weather changes, hence my coming in late. But I loved the rain!

Brunch is on the sideboard: eggs benedict, French toast with syrup or fresh fruit, large cinnamon rolls drizzled with a delicious sugar glaze, biscuits with sausage gravy, bacon and thick fried ham slices, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, sliced roast beef, cheesy potatoes au gratin, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange or apple juice. Where possible, all ingredients used with heart healthy ingredients. Note the little cards next to each that have a red heart to indicate heart healthy. Enjoy!
Just the comfort food I needed on a stormy Wednesday morning!
1223. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Very funny storms but it's nothing more than a little spin yet..too early for svr wx now.



watch for these spinups late tonight into tomorrow...may see 1 or so in the SE.




Georgia, what is your barometer doing? Mine is rising like a rocket - up from 29.91 to 30.03 in just two hours. The Bermuda High must be nosing in pretty effectively. The weather icon on my PWS is all confused. It shows sunny skies but, since it's actually raining, it also shows a tiny cloud over in the corner. I guess the software knows how to do a CYA also. :-)
1224. barbamz

200mb Streamlines & Isotachs


Convective Available Potential Energy & Precipitable Water

Sure a lot of water for the East available! Source to enlarge
1225. 62901IL
I gotta go. Be back at 2.
Goodnight Aussie
If you look closely at the current hi-res visible loop of the Gulf, you can see the low right on the Coast of LA.....Problem is that all parts East to North Florida are on the dirty side with heavier showers continuing to fire off-shore.

Big flooding event for Southern AL/GA/Northern Florida on tap over the next 48 hours.
Quoting 1223. sar2401:

Georgia, what is your barometer doing? Mine is rising like a rocket - up from 29.91 to 30.03 in just two hours. The Bermuda High must be nosing in pretty effectively. The weather icon on my PWS is all confused. It shows sunny skies but, since it's actually raining, it also shows a tiny cloud over in the corner. I guess the software knows how to do a CYA also. :-)



Mine is fairly steady.

Guess you are finally getting your rain?
Hope your grass looks better.
Jet is forecast to move poleward back to its "normal"
location..will be interesting to see if mid-level
vortices in BOC and Gulf/W. Carib are able to develop any surface circulation...Not likely, but then neither was Claudette.....
Happy Anniversary Pat, it's been a pleasure chatting with you for the nearly 7 years I've been around. Cheers!
1232. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to be folks. Stay well, Stay safe.

Goodnight.

P.S Congrats Pat on 8yrs on WU. It'll be 6yrs for me on September 30. I wonder if we'll be tracking a hurricane then.

GN, Aussie. I have a feeling we'll be tracking something on September 30, even if it's another blob. Looks like that kind of season. I joined sometime in 2004. I'll have to look to see when. It was Ivan that got me going. Only hurricane that made it into central AL as a hurricane.

EDIT: I see it's October 2, 2004. Good heavens, almost 9 years. I have to get a life sometime before I die. :-)
Quoting 1201. alexhurricane1991:
That is wishcasting i know your excited about this hurricane season being active but not every blob is going to become a tropical system dont worry you will get your storms soon.


Making a forecast while stating he is uncertain about the probabilities of being correct is not wishcasting. And while we're at it, there is model support to suggest something may attempt to spin-up as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. Why else would the NHC bother to mention this sloppy mess in the GOMEX?


Either way, there's plenty of rain to go around in the next few days across much of the southern USA.
1234. Patrap
1231. indianrivguy

Thanks IRG, been a pleasure as well, esp with all your local knowledge over dere.

Quoting 1230. Patrap:
..I'm only Happy when it Rains..


Now Pat I thought you were happy with a Fresca (Spelling Sorry)

Taco :o)
Oh yeah, I forgot you are one of the newbies.

Quoting 1205. Patrap:
I joined 8 years ago today, to get xtra Radar Frames as Cindy 05 was forming off the Yucatan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005
1237. Patrap
Always a spookie sight to see curved Banding in the Gulf Se of one, even in early July.

1238. Dakster
Quoting 1235. taco2me61:

Now Pat I thought you were happy with a Fresca (Spelling Sorry)

Taco :o)


A Fresca in the rain...
1239. 62901IL
Quoting 1237. Patrap:
Always a spookie sight to see curved Banding in the Gulf Se of one, even in early July.


Uhoh.
Quoting 1231. indianrivguy:
Happy Anniversary Pat, it's been a pleasure chatting with you for the nearly 7 years I've been around. Cheers!
you been here as long as I have be 7 years myself on the 15th

not a bad place I've seen other site's that are so inmature and sit around all day and talk smack about others and insult peeps and defame them but there just nobodies anyway
Quoting 1236. Dodabear:
Oh yeah, I forgot you are one of the newbies.



hahahaha, cracked me up, well done.
1243. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Mine is fairly steady.

Guess you are finally getting your rain?
Hope your grass looks better.

Hmmm...wonder why mine is rising so fast? It's pretty accurate, so I'm confident it's not something weird going on with the sensor. Yes, indeed, finally getting real rain instead of storms that miss by a mile. Looks worse on radar than it is so far. .27" total since earlier this morning, and a rain rate of only .11" per hour. The high should push most of this fetch further west today, so GA should get a chance to dry out some.
1244. 62901IL
We seem to be getting curved banding.
**gulp**
Think about it, 9 days ago --+-- the models saw something to the very thing that is happening. Not saying a hurricane but some sort of tropical disturbance ...... Pretty impressive if you ask me.
1246. 62901IL
Quoting 1245. PanhandleChuck:
Think about it, 9 days ago --+-- the models saw something to the very thing that is happening. Not saying a hurricane but some sort of tropical disturbance ...... Pretty impressive if you ask me.

Impressive, huh?
Quoting 1237. Patrap:
Always a spookie sight to see curved Banding in the Gulf Se of one, even in early July.



Does that normally lead to cyclogenesis?
Quoting 1233. CybrTeddy:


Making a forecast while stating he is uncertain about the probabilities of being correct is not wishcasting. And while we're at it, there is model support to suggest something may attempt to spin-up as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. Why else would the NHC bother to mention this sloppy mess in the GOMEX?


Either way, there's plenty of rain to go around in the next few days across much of the southern USA.
Your right i was too quick to pull the wishcasting card
1249. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements

My NOAA Weather Alert Radios went off in Tandem during the night as some Boomers came in from the Blob..

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 401 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 159 AM PDT WED JUL 3 2013
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 254 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
1250. Patrap
Quoting 1247. druseljic:


Does that normally lead to cyclogenesis?


Not always, buts its a sign something is trying to as conditions slowly improve aloft and in the Se and Central GOM overall.

Gulf Of Mexico - Visible Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is active

Gonna settle the current debate right now; lets call this thing the "no-name" tropical system of July 2013.... :)
Offshore platforms in GOM being briefed for deteriorating conditions in the coming days
Quoting 1102. washingtonian115:
Models seeing two weak storms.One maybe a depression and the other a actual storm.I'm rooting on Dorian being a beautiful Cape Verde storm.
Not the only one my heart would broke if it is a pathethic storm.
Quoting 1231. indianrivguy:
Happy Anniversary Pat, it's been a pleasure chatting with you for the nearly 7 years I've been around. Cheers!


Darn, I forgot I joined 2 years ago yesterday. You just reminded me. Happy WU Anniversary Pat!
1255. Patrap
Ty very much slam,
1256. Patrap
Quoting 1254. Slamguitar:


Darn, I forgot I joined 2 years ago yesterday. You just reminded me. Happy WU Anniversary Pat!
Quoting 1255. Patrap:
Ty very much slam,
Happy anniversary both of you and hope you can celebrate more to come with us.
Quoting 1254. Slamguitar:


Darn, I forgot I joined 2 years ago yesterday. You just reminded me. Happy WU Anniversary Pat!


seems a lot of us joined in the month of july popular month

I'm supposed to be going to Dallas this Friday and Saturday, looks like I'll be missing the action. Hopefully I get rain while I'm away, or I might be coming home Sunday to a threat in the Gulf, remains to be seen.
Don't look Aislinn. ;) So far should just bring rain. Hopefully.

Quoting 1258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


seems a lot of us joined in the month of july popular month

I would say July is "Very Popular" :o)
Thanks for the answer Patrap.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Happy 8TH Anniversary Pat. You may even get a storm to track! Thanks for all your help and knowledge throughout the past years. I''m not always in NOLA but I know I can always count on your post if a storm is treating the area. You picked a great time to Join, 2005!
1265. Dakster
Who were the first members to join? I see dodabear is in 2001.
1266. Matt74
Quoting 1252. RitaEvac:
Offshore platforms in GOM being briefed for deteriorating conditions in the coming days
I'm on the upper Texas coast and our locals really haven't mentioned it. Just said 40-50% chance of rain this weekend. But then again they're always pretty conservative.
1267. Patrap
thanx a lot jazzy!
Quoting 1252. RitaEvac:
Offshore platforms in GOM being briefed for deteriorating conditions in the coming days

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA


* AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR CORINTH..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED
3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING.


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM EDT.

_______________________________________

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 1201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT CONTINUES TO OCCUR FROM
TALLAPOOSA TO BUCHANAN TO EUBANK LAKE. AREAS IN THE WARNING HAVE
RECEIVED 3.5-5.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 9 AM EDT...AND WITH
ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FLASH
FLOODING RISK REMAINS HIGH.


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA THROUGH 6 PM EDT.



pretty much sums up today here.
Quoting 1212. taco2me61:

Well Said and good to see you again....

Taco :o)


Thanks, Taco2 --- you have WU mail :-)
Quoting 1228. GeorgiaStormz:



Mine is fairly steady.

Guess you are finally getting your rain?
Hope your grass looks better.

Waycross, GA......barometer 30.13 and falling...
1272. dabirds
Quoting 1205. Patrap:
I joined 8 years ago today, to get xtra Radar Frames as Cindy 05 was forming off the Yucatan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005
And Jim Morrison passed 34 yrs before that in Paris. 7/3/71

Beautiful day in C IL, 80 w/ 59 dew pt, 30", 3-10 W to WSW winds. Ended up w/ .3" yesterday.
Intense rainfall Link