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Baked Alaska: 98° Reading Ties All-Time State Heat Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:21 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

Alaska is a land of extremes, but the weather of the past month has been truly exceptional. An intense ridge of high pressure, part of an extreme jet stream pattern that has become "stuck" in place for many days, is creating the state's hottest heat wave in 44 years this week. Numerous cities in Alaska have recorded their all-time hottest temperatures on record, and according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the unofficial 98° measured at Bentalit Lodge on Monday, June 17, ties the record for the hottest reliably measured temperature in state history. The only other time Alaska has been this hot was on June 15, 1969, when the mercury hit 96° in Fairbanks, and a 98° reading was recorded in Richardson (near Fairbanks.) Mr. Burt writes: One thing that is so astonishing about the current heat wave in Alaska is how abnormally cold it was just a month ago. McGrath, which reached its all-time record high of 94° on Monday, recorded a 15° temperature on May 18th, the coldest temperature (by 4°) ever measured so late in the season there (McGrath went on to reach 86° on May 29th, its warmest May temperature on record!).


Figure 1. Another hot day in the Great Land: forecast highs for Wednesday, June 19, call for high temperatures in excess of 90° north of the Arctic Circle in Alaska.


Figure 2 . A rare cloud-free view of Alaska. This June 17, 2013 MODIS shot of Alaska, taken during the state's hottest heat wave in 44 years, is remarkably cloud-free-thanks to the intense ridge of high pressure over the state. The heat helped fuel several wildfires, marked with red squares. Image credit: NASA.

Links
Alaska Bakes with All-time Heat Records by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt

All-Time Heat Records Broken in . . . Alaska?! by Andrew Freeman of climatecentral.org

Jeff Masters
85 degree heat
85 degree heat
Unusual. Low tide, the old and new. Old saltwater pumping station that operated 100 years ago sits on the beach at low tide while a small cruise ship departs behnd.

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.

It's hot in Alaska even by our (the South's) standards.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
98, that's temps that are too hot for me in the summer.
Thanks. Very unusual. And I have to admit, rather disturbing. I'd expect those kind of reading this time of year in the coastal low county of South Carolina or the central Louisiana area. Not Alaska!! :D

Natalie
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Improving
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Max temperature so far here in Herndon VA this year 90 degrees F.
 
98 degrees F in Alaska is a TRUE heat wave.
Thanks Doc
98 degrees is pretty dang impressive anywhere in USA except for Southwest.
Me thinks TD2 is getting ready to become TS Barry.
I blame Global Warming.

Meanwhile in Tampa, FL. off the Howard Frankland and Gandy Bridge a waterspout. xD

Big meltdown. Reminds me of Ice Age...
Stay cool in Alaska. ..kinda weird to say
but....current weather extremes are just figments of some crazy liberal scientists' imaginations....
14. MTWX
Just kickin' them out today, ain't ya Doc??!!? LOL ;)

Thanks for the info on the Alaska heat wave!
Quoting Dakster:
Me thinks TD2 is getting ready to become TS Barry.


Methinks it already is.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Meanwhile in Tampa, FL. off the Howard Frankland and Gandy Bridge a waterspout. xD


That's a great picture. Your quintessential waterspout of the coast of Florida!

Nat
18. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

It's hot in Alaska even by our (the South's) standards.

Doubt the humidity is bad though...

Still definitely an extreme for them!
Thanks Dr Masters.I believe td 2 have reach ts intensity.
What was the C02 level in June 1969????
And I thought 'Baked Alaska' was a dessert! Master Doc has been busy today...


I see some spin here!!
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Max temperature so far here in Herndon VA this year 90 degrees F.
 
98 degrees F in Alaska is a TRUE heat wave.

I live near there
we haven't seen terrible heat but the humidity has been awful
Time: 17:24:30Z
Coordinates: 21.3333N 92.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 735.2 mb (~ 21.71 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,757 meters (~ 9,045 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111° at 31 knots (From the ESE at ~ 35.6 mph)
Air Temp: 9.3°C* (~ 48.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 31 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 30 knots* (~ 34.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr* (~ 0.28 in/hr*)
Quoting presslord:
but....current weather extremes are just figments of some crazy liberal scientists' imaginations....


As stated over and over by your local TV Met.... : )

Thanks Alot! 98F in Alaska. Never though I would live to see the day. There is no question in my mind that the Earth is warming. This also favors more ridging in the Atlantic. As High pressure is over Alaska. Troughs are flat and force up over Canada, and High pressure builds underneath. We may not be as much as activity as 2012; but this year's pattern reminds me of 2004!!! Less means more.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

That's a great picture. Your quintessential waterspout of the coast of Florida!

Nat


Anyone remember the 'Great Miami Tornado'?
in case you didn't see the article posted as a comment to the last blog entry.

https://www.truthdig.com/report/item/greenlands_g reat_melt_is_pinned_on_climate_change_20130619
Quoting presslord:
but....current weather extremes are just figments of some crazy liberal scientists' imaginations....
How's life in the Carolinas, Press?
I'd say those are some big extremes, Doc. Crazy.

Anyway, it never ceases to amaze me how the Bay of Campeche can so quickly help spin up a tropical disturbance into a formidable storm. Not sure if TD2 has enough time to become that strong, but it could be developing a CDO already (I believe it's already TS Barry...50mph or so).

"One thing that is so astonishing about the current heat wave in Alaska is how abnormally cold it was just a month ago."

More weather whiplash?
The last time I was in Anchorage, it got up to 92, but that was in August. 98 Degrees? Wow.

Quoting JasonWins33:


I see some spin here!!





Its interacting with an Upper Low nothing at the mid to lower levels

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Recon descending into TD Two currently. Should be entering the storm shortly.
Anyone have a link to the recon?
Quoting Ricki13th:
Thanks Alot! 98F in Alaska. Never though I would live to see the day. There is no question in my mind that the Earth is warming. This also favors more ridging in the Atlantic. As High pressure is over Alaska. Troughs are flat and force up over Canada, and High pressure builds underneath. We may not be as much as activity as 2012; but this year's pattern reminds me of 2004!!! Less means more.
Now I am waiting to see Alaska hit 100 degrees F. At this rate it may happen much sooner than I expected.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Recon descending into TD Two currently. Should be entering the storm shortly.
Looks good, they probably won't have any problems finding TS force winds. And here I was trying to put the nail on the coffin on this one, mother nature throws us another curveball.

Quoting MississippiWx:
I'd say those are some big extremes, Doc. Crazy.

Anyway, it never ceases to amaze me how the Bay of Campeche can so quickly help spin up a tropical disturbance into a formidable storm. Not sure if TD2 has enough time to become that strong, but it could be developing a CDO already (I believe it's already TS Barry...50mph or so).

Wow! it doesn't look that strong yet... it might not be a TS yet either.However, Its building some convection over the LLC. Once conditions improve later today it could ramp up a bit.
Thanks Doc!!
Quoting MississippiWx:
I'd say those are some big extremes, Doc. Crazy.

Anyway, it never ceases to amaze me how the Bay of Campeche can so quickly help spin up a tropical disturbance into a formidable storm. Not sure if TD2 has enough time to become that strong, but it could be developing a CDO already (I believe it's already TS Barry...50mph or so).

 I am awaiting the 2PM EDT update:)


Tropical Storm Force Winds.
Quoting mikatnight:


Anyone remember the 'Great Miami Tornado'?


Amazing how many people had videos of it for 1997.
37mph so far is what i'm seeing

large area of near 30-35mph winds heading into storm.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 5m
RT @NWSBoulder: #Denver #DIA Tornado that occurred yesterday (06/18/13) has been rated an EF-1. #COwx
Already getting winds near TS strength, not even in the bulk of convection yet.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:


Tropical Storm Force Winds.
Flight level. Winds at surface is lower than that. Therefore, no tropical storm winds at surface yet.
Hey people. I will be offline from 1250 or slightly earlier to a little before two. If anyone quotes me, then tell me.
Thank you for your consideration.
Quoting Ricki13th:
Thanks Alot! 98F in Alaska. Never though I would live to see the day. There is no question in my mind that the Earth is warming. This also favors more ridging in the Atlantic. As High pressure is over Alaska. Troughs are flat and force up over Canada, and High pressure builds underneath. We may not be as much as activity as 2012; but this year's pattern reminds me of 2004!!! Less means more.


CPC says Alaska's above average anomalies are going nowhere in the next 14 days.

6-10 day outlook



8-14 day outlook

Thanks Doc..I hope the frequent blogs keep a coming throughout the hurricane season..:)
Looks like we will have TS Barry very soon.

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 17:34Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.9N 93.3W
Location: 194 miles (312 km) to the WNW (292°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 390 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1011 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 33 knots (~ 38.0mph)
Post 37... hello there, old friend. Back for another hurricane season, eh? Well, welcome to my ignored list for the millionth time.
Time: 17:34:00Z
Coordinates: 20.9167N 93.3167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 964.9 mb (~ 28.49 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 411 meters (~ 1,348 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 99° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 22.7°C* (~ 72.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 17:34Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.9N 93.3W
Location: 194 miles (312 km) to the WNW (292°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 390 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1011 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 33 knots (~ 38.0mph)

Very close to TS status, by time the mission is over should be a short lived Barry.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Already getting winds near TS strength, not even in the bulk of convection yet.

Winds ranging between 30-35 so far. Definitely could get interesting as they get deeper into the storm.
Now for our time of judgement.
For the newcomers and those who may not have it, here's a link to the recon page.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


CPC says alaska above average anomalies are going nowhere in the next 14 days.

6-10 day outlook



8-14 day outlook

In days 8-14 look out.With the jet stream being that far north and little ridging in the south it could spell trouble in the caribbean.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Time: 17:34:00Z
Coordinates: 20.9167N 93.3167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 964.9 mb (~ 28.49 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 411 meters (~ 1,348 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 99° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 22.7°C* (~ 72.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
Will like get upgrade to Barry.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Time: 17:34:00Z
Coordinates: 20.9167N 93.3167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 964.9 mb (~ 28.49 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 411 meters (~ 1,348 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 99° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 22.7°C* (~ 72.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)



don't trust that, its the same as flight level wind.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I live near there
we haven't seen terrible heat but the humidity has been awful


You think you have it bad?, I invite you to come to Florida, where it is humid 11 out of the 12 months.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



don't trust that, its the same as flight level wind.
Airplane is only 1,000 feet this mission, I believe.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Airplane is only 1,000 feet this mission, I believe.


theres still reduction, just not as much
Veracruz Current


Link
Readings are delayed.
Some nice vorticity with that wave in the caribbean.The shear is blasting it though.
They should name it this just out of its sheer blobiness.

Good afternoon friends!

Weather Station in Kingston

Elevation: 223 m
Temperature: 36.1 °C
Dew Point: 21.7 °C
Humidity: 44%

Wind: 3.2 km/h / from the SW
Wind Gust: 0.0 km/h /

Updated: 12:27 PM EST on June 19, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc..I hope the frequent blogs keep a coming throughout the hurricane season..:)


Caribbean/vis_ir_background/goes

In the BOC, we often get the strongest winds in storms on the southern side due to land friction. I would say the TS force winds will be on the south and southeast side of the center. We will see.

I thought the official record high temperature in Alaska was 100 F on June 27, 1915 in Fort Yukon. Has this been invalidated? Or is this not a "reliable" temperature?
Quoting JNTenne:
Veracruz Current


Link


That picture brings back memories ...I lived in that hotel for a couple of months a few years back
Quoting Grothar:
They should name it this just out of its sheer blobiness.

These storms are smart they know how to find water their source of fuel.
36kts.

173630 2050N 09326W 9655 00410 0115 224 //// 119037 040 036 013 01
65mph on the SFMR, contaminated from rain but plenty of TS rains. Probably a 40-45mph Tropical Storm.
Lots of 50-65 mph surface winds, though contaminated.

Winds still support TS status.

Barry it is (at 5pm EDT).
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 19 Jun 2013

Average for last 30 days: 10.3
Average for last 90 days: 6.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 13.1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lots of 50-60 mph surface winds, though contaminated.

Winds still support TS status.

Barry it is.


What? no they dont...
We will have Barry..no doubt about it.That means we would have had two storms official with one unofficial storm for June.Not bad..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What? no they dont...


Ya, they do...

54.0 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm
All those SFMR readings are completely useless considering flight-level winds never exceeded 40kts.

02L is, at most, a 35kt tropical storm...from the data we've received.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What? no they dont...


46mph flight level winds, 42mph SFMR was the most reasonable one I saw, use tropicalatlantic.com.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We will have Barry..no doubt about it.That means we would have had two storms official with one unofficial storm for June.Not bad..
If some model don`t remember which develop that trough split into Chantal in the next coming days we will have a record for ts in the month of June.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We will have Barry..no doubt about it.That means we would have had two storms official with one unofficial storm for June.Not bad..

And TD2/Barry and 92L originated from tropical waves, which is likely a sign of an active season to come.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lots of 50-65 mph surface winds, though contaminated.

Winds still support TS status.

Barry it is (at 5pm EDT).

I'm positive we see Barry at 5pm.
Still a tropical depression as of 2p.m. EDT.
Peak flight level wind was 46mph, so anything around 40mph is supported.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ya, they do...

54.0 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


That's in heavy rain with <40 mph flight level winds...

Cmon you know better than that.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We will have Barry..no doubt about it.That means we would have had two storms official with one unofficial storm for June.Not bad..

Yeah, that's pretty impressive.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still a tropical depression as of 2p.m. EDT.


No surprise, was probably written up as the recon was approaching. We'll have a TS at 5pm is my guess.
Here we go!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All those SFMR readings are completely useless considering flight-level winds never exceeded 40kts.

02L is, at most, a 35kt tropical storm...from the data we've received.


Probably so, still expect the strongest winds on the south and southeast side of the circulation.
Quoting Grothar:
They should name it this just out of its sheer blobiness.

I remember Diana in 1990 in that same area rapidly intensifying rapidly just before landfall.
Quoting washingtonian115:
We will have Barry..no doubt about it.That means we would have had two storms official with one unofficial storm for June.Not bad..


what unofficial storm?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That's in heavy rain with <40 mph flight level winds...

Cmon you know better than that.


This is easily a TS...no doubt about it. And yea, those winds are contaminated. I read flight winds incorrectly.
Based on all of the information coming in on TD2, I will say that there is a 5% chance that this will NOT become Tropical Storm Barry today.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what unofficial storm?
92L I imagine.
Quoting allancalderini:
If some model don`t remember which develop that trough split into Chantal in the next coming days we will have a record for ts in the month of June.
I'm still monitoring it but I'm not sure.
Quoting wxchaser97:

And TD2/Barry and 92L originated from tropical waves, which is likely a sign of an active season to come.


I'm positive we see Barry at 5pm.
agreed.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what unofficial storm?
Quoting allancalderini:
92L I imagine.

92L that was likely a tropical depression for a time.
Recon is flying below 1300' now..
Looks like recon his having trouble with the XTRAP pressures today, much to my annoyance. 44mph on this past *just* as they were going into the area of heavy winds, wait for the next page. My thinking is a 40mph Tropical Storm Barry.
Week before last I heard Jeff Masters give a talk on climate change. It is still keeping me up at night...
Next pass, recon should be in or near the center. Very small core, as expected, from looking at pressure falls.
Quoting VR46L:


Caribbean/vis_ir_background/goes



A threatened a GroCon on this one earlier. Looks good.

Storm has a very small circulation, that's for sure.
Quoting Civicane49:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

The NHC might put out a second advisory (#9B) if the NHC wanted to. Considering warnings are out for Mexico.
td2.intensifying
Quoting hydrus:
I remember Diana in 1990 in that same area rapidly intensifying rapidly just before landfall.


A couple have done that. Just little poofs and then boom.
I see small circulation storms go to 35 mph to 80 mph In one day..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like recon his having trouble with the XTRAP pressures today, much to my annoyance. 44mph on this past *just* as they were going into the area of heavy winds, wait for the next page. My thinking is a 40mph Tropical Storm Barry.


I might be putting my foot in my mouth, but experience tells me strongest winds will be on the south side. Might not be the case with this system since it's so small, but this has been the case in the past with extreme Southern BOC storms.
Gro is that a Florida storm a comin?
it look like a tropical storm to me..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm has a very small circulation, that's for sure.

So, TD 2 could be a stronger storm at landfall than previously expected...right?
Quoting nigel20:

So, TD 2 could be a stronger storm at landfall than previously expected...right?


Depends.. Whose Expectations?


If it hit as a Cat1 - then I would say you are correct, but a strong TS won't be above everyones.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


You think you have it bad?, I invite you to come to Florida, where it is humid 11 out of the 12 months.
Sorry to butt into this conversation but humidity is terrible 99 % of the time in the Caribbean. Florida is hot and humid I agree and their overall temps can run hotter than the Caribbean which rarely tops 100 F but you can bet the humidity is worse than Florida. BTW, I grew up in Florida and now live in the Cayman Islands so I have experienced both.
Quoting nigel20:

So, TD 2 could be a stronger storm at landfall than previously expected...right?

Depends on who was expecting what.

There's room for more intensification this afternoon and evening before the center moves ashore. It won't get incredibly intense though.
man if nhc dont name this system barry! its looking good and its wrapping nicely. definitely TS
Cayman's have worse heat and humidity that South Florida?

Quoting nigel20:

So, TD 2 could be a stronger storm at landfall than previously expected...right?


Yup
This was Katrina which hit Broward and Dade as a Hurricane even though we only expected a TS. Then it went on to become the monster she was.

Quoting Dakster:
Cayman's have worse heat and humidity that South Florida?

Not heat but yes, humidity,
Two things I notice about TD-2 recently -

1. A CDO seems to have formed over the alleged center, which could be a sign that a period of significant strengthening (perhaps to 50-60mph) is possible.

2. Satellite imagery in the last few frames show the circulation tightening up, probably supported by #1.
Quoting nigel20:

So, TD 2 could be a stronger storm at landfall than previously expected...right?

These tiny circulations in the spin-induced Bay of Campeche definitely have a potential to spin up into strong systems, and Barry is not pardoned from this fact.
Quoting Dakster:
Gro is that a Florida storm a comin?


Seems to be moving in that direction. I have been trying to get a special animation on this, but it is taking me time. I will try again.

two of them got a 3% being hurricane. lets see when it gets name if that % goes higher for being a hurricane.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not heat but yes, humidity,


I'll have to scratch the Cayman's off my summer to visit bucket list then.
Well, I went looking for a web cam to show you what it's like downtown today and this is what I found:

Link

Enjoy the "view"...

Lindy
Fresh ASCAT..I think too close to shore to get way accurate..go recon..

Quoting Grothar:


Seems to be moving in that direction. I have been trying to get a special animation on this, but it is taking me time. I will try again.



Hopefully as only a bad thunderstorm.
Andrea beat Arlene's formation by 3 days.
Barry beat Brets formation by 13 days (assuming it gets named at 5PM
I believe we will get Chantal before Cindy (July 3rd)
Quoting Dakster:
Cayman's have worse heat and humidity that South Florida?

Been to Grand Cayman in August and IT WAS AWESOME! Of course I did not have work in the heat.. well I did have to keep the stingrays fed!

Rain coming!:)
Finally found the center. Seems to be just east of the 1pm CDT National Hurricane Center intermediate advisory position.
5-6 TS force winds on that pass, peak was 44mph.
looks like it may be spinning up rapidly BOC style.
Quoting Grothar:
This was Katrina which hit Broward and Dade as a Hurricane even though we only expected a TS. Then it went on to become the monster she was.



Katrina caused particularly significant flooding in the Hollywood/North Miami area, am I correct?
Quoting Grothar:
This was Katrina which hit Broward and Dade as a Hurricane even though we only expected a TS. Then it went on to become the monster she was.

If the position and track had been situated just a couple hundred miles to the east, Katrina, Miami and cities near by may have been looking at a worst case scenario...a catastrophic storm of epic proportion...And then Louisiana added on....250 billion dollar disaster.?
Quoting Dakster:


I'll have to scratch the Cayman's off my summer to visit bucket list then.
Not a huge difference. Miami current temp is 88 F with 61% humidity. Cayman is 90 F with 63 % humidity. BUT we have the beautiful, blue Caribbean sea to cool off in.
Recon running into some SW winds, 1184'..
Quoting Dakster:


Depends.. Whose Expectations?


If it hit as a Cat1 - then I would say you are correct, but a strong TS won't be above everyones.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Depends on who was expecting what.

There's room for more intensification this afternoon and evening before the center moves ashore. It won't get incredibly intense though.

Agreed, but we should always expect the unexpected with these tropical systems.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

These tiny circulations in the spin-induced Bay of Campeche definitely have a potential to spin up into strong systems, and Barry is not pardoned from this fact.

Agreed.
It's like Helene all over again...




Quoting JNTenne:
Been to Grand Cayman in August and IT WAS AWESOME! Of course I did not have work in the heat.. well I did have to keep the stingrays fed!

The worst month for heat here is September.
151. SLU
So I see we're going to have Barry later today. 2(3)-0-0 on June 19th is well ahead of some active seasons like 2005 and 2010.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not a huge difference. Miami current temp is 88 F with 61% humidity. Cayman is 90 F with 63 % humidity. BUT we have the beautiful, blue Caribbean sea to cool off in.


I can't stand Miami in the summer - I just deal with it as I have no choice...

When I go on vacation I want to be 'comfortable' outside.

And yes - you do have a beautiful ocean (sea) to cool off in.
20130619 1745 19.5 95.2 T2.0/2.0 02L NONAME
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not a huge difference. Miami current temp is 88 F with 61% humidity. Cayman is 90 F with 63 % humidity. BUT we have the beautiful, blue Caribbean sea to cool off in.
And almost always a breeze to take the edge off.
closet buoy data
Why we never count depression in numbers?for example with Andrea it would be 1-1-0-0.
TD2 doing good now
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The worst month for heat here is September.

Same here (Jamaica)! We also get most of our rainfall between September and October.
check out the wave heights.
Quoting hydrus:
If the position and track had been situated just a couple hundred miles to the east, Katrina, Miami and cities near by may have been looking at a worst case scenario...a catastrophic storm of epic proportion.


Katrina was a catastophic storm of epic proportion. If it would have made landfall with the winds it had earlier, I might not be here today.
This is kind of an ominous start to the 2013 season. In 2005 - Arlene hit Florida and Bret hit Veracruz. Cindy hit Lousiana....

I don't usually like using analogous years based on a couple of coincidences. but it is still interesting.
Quoting Thrawst:
Two things I notice about TD-2 recently -

1. A CDO seems to have formed over the alleged center, which could be a sign that a period of significant strengthening (perhaps to 50-60mph) is possible.

2. Satellite imagery in the last few frames show the circulation tightening up, probably supported by #1.


Dvorak has a uniform CDO on it now. Cloud temps there -63.76. RawT 3.1, T 2.4, 1005.8mb
Quoting Cayman2010:
And almost always a breeze to take the edge off.


I live very close to the open ocean and have a breeze as well, but it still stifling in the day. I actually think central Florida is worse in the summer, since there is no breeze at all.

Cyclonic curvature becoming far more pronounced on satellite imagery.
Very good beach day here in Jamaica...dry and windy.


Quoting nigel20:

Same here (Jamaica)! We also get most of our rainfall between September and October.
We also get the worst hurricanes in those months :( Gilbert and Ivan.
Quoting Dakster:
This is kind of an ominous start to the 2013 season. In 2005 - Arlene hit Florida and Bret hit Veracruz. Cindy hit Lousiana....

I don't usually like using analogous years based on a couple of coincidences. but it is still interesting.

Hey Dakster lets not go through that again.... 2005 was enough for me thats for sure....

Taco :o)
Looks like we'll have Barry at 5PM. It is definitely expanding its convection in the BOC, looks better every frame.

Quoting taco2me61:

Hey Dakster lets not go through that again.... 2005 was enough for me thats for sure....

Taco :o)


It was for me as well...

Quoting Dakster:
This is kind of an ominous start to the 2013 season. In 2005 - Arlene hit Florida and Bret hit Veracruz. Cindy hit Lousiana....

I don't usually like using analogous years based on a couple of coincidences. but it is still interesting.
The GFS shows a hurricane coming for L.A in 10-15 days.That's why I said look out.But it could all be a coincidence...
TD2 isn't undergoing any rapid strengthening until it can consolidate it's convection areas. Right now it seems to have two areas of main convection, one to the north and one to it's south. Until then it's steady as she goes...



Quoting jorick:
I thought the official record high temperature in Alaska was 100 F on June 27, 1915 in Fort Yukon. Has this been invalidated? Or is this not a "reliable" temperature?

Check it out.

"The official heat record for Alaska remains the 100° registered at Fort Yukon on June 27, 1915."
Quoting Dakster:
This is kind of an ominous start to the 2013 season. In 2005 - Arlene hit Florida and Bret hit Veracruz. Cindy hit Lousiana....

I don't usually like using analogous years based on a couple of coincidences. but it is still interesting.

Definitely an interesting coincidence
Quoting ILwthrfan:
TD2 isn't undergoing any rapid strengthening until it can consolidate it's convection areas. Right now it seems to have two areas of main convection, one to the north and one to it's south. Until then it's steady as she goes...

It's a he.
175. DDR
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The worst month for heat here is September.

Hi stormwatcher
lucky for you its only a couple months,we have 7 months of high humity and rain and its always 90+ everyday.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS shows a hurricane coming for L.A in 10-15 days.That's why I said look out.But it could all be a coincidence...


And this is coming from someone with a psycho clown avatar.

Three things in row...not so much a coincidence.
Quoting bigwes6844:
check out the wave heights.

I appreciate that you identify your source of info.
Quoting bappit:

I appreciate that you identify your source of info.


Says it pretty clearly on the image itself:

Image Credit: NOAA/NWS/NDBC
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sorry to butt into this conversation but humidity is terrible 99 % of the time in the Caribbean. Florida is hot and humid I agree and their overall temps can run hotter than the Caribbean which rarely tops 100 F but you can bet the humidity is worse than Florida. BTW, I grew up in Florida and now live in the Cayman Islands so I have experienced both.


I can only imagine the warm humid climate of the Carribean, lol I think I'll agree with you on this issue..

Quoting Grothar:
This was Katrina which hit Broward and Dade as a Hurricane even though we only expected a TS. Then it went on to become the monster she was.



I didn't remember the eye actually engulfing the northern part of Miami and south part of Hollywood... Wow...

That dreaded Gulf Stream.... Always rapidly intensifies storms.....
Quoting katrinaeyewall:


Katrina was a catastophic storm of epic proportion. If it would have made landfall with the winds it had earlier, I might not be here today.
I know it was horrible. I was by no means down playing it. I was conveying that it actually could have been much deadlier and damaging then it was. Imagine if she was a 4 or 5 hitting both Miami just to the south and New Orleans on a path just west...Hard to wrap my mind around such a disaster.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We also get the worst hurricanes in those months :( Gilbert and Ivan.

Yeah, Gilbert is still our worst natural disaster in recorded history.

Hurricane Gilbert produced a 19 ft (5.8 m) storm surge and brought up to 823 millimetres (32.4 in) of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica,[25] causing inland flash flooding. 49 people died.[20] Prime Minister Edward Seaga stated that the hardest hit areas near where Gilbert made landfall looked "like Hiroshima after the atom bomb."[26] The storm left $4 billion (1988 USD) in damage from destroyed crops, buildings, houses, roads, and small aircraft.[3] Two people eventually had to be rescued because of mudslides triggered by Gilbert and were sent to the hospital. The two people were reported to be fine. No planes were going in and out of Kingston, and telephone lines were jammed from Jamaica to Florida.[11]




Hurricane Gilbert
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS shows a hurricane coming for L.A in 10-15 days.That's why I said look out.But it could all be a coincidence...


Cue jaws music
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not a huge difference. Miami current temp is 88 F with 61% humidity. Cayman is 90 F with 63 % humidity. BUT we have the beautiful, blue Caribbean sea to cool off in.


And Wroclaw? We're on 51N,and temp is 84F dew point 70F(62% humidity)...for you it's quite cool for summer,but for me it's HORRIBLE...
(I guess at 2PM local time it could have been even 90F with same dew point - and tommorow can be even worse(temperature possibly near 97F))
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like we'll have Barry at 5PM. It is definitely expanding its convection in the BOC, looks better every frame.



Impressive feat that TD2 has managed this during diurnal minimum. Went from almost an open trough to this in 24 hours. Not bad.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS shows a hurricane coming for L.A in 10-15 days.That's why I said look out.But it could all be a coincidence...


On the 12z? I didn't see anything.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Says it pretty clearly on the image itself:

Image Credit: NOAA/NWS/NDBC

He was being sarcastic because I didn't link the buoy I was referring to earlier.
With ADT numbers at this:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.3mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 3.0 3.1

SAB at this:
19/1745 UTC 19.5N 95.2W T2.0/2.0 02L

And recon finding TS force flight-level and surface winds, I'm sure we have Barry right now. I'll guess 40-45mph at 5pm advisory, unless recon finds stronger winds. And is it just me, or has recon on Google Earth not updated for over 15 minutes now?
Quoting hydrus:
I know it was horrible. I was by no means down playing it. I was conveying that it actually could have been much deadlier and damaging then it was. Imagine if she was a 4 or 5 hitting both Miami just to the south and New Orleans on a path just west...Hard to wrap my mind around such a disaster.


I still find myself amazed on how that storm entrained dry air at the last possible moment that caused it to weaken the way it did. If there was any silver lining in that whole nightmare that was it.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Says it pretty clearly on the image itself:

Image Credit: NOAA/NWS/NDBC

I was not being sarcastic. I am very rarely sarcastic though I do like to point out the irony inherent in situations.

I am truly appreciative that he posted the image which shows the source of the data instead of just throwing out some comments.
If that tropical wave near PR continues to hold, the NHC may have to bring out the yellow crayon with a 0% chance of developing just to acknowledge it.
GFS ensembles are becoming more bullish again. This is in 16 days though.

Quoting hurricaneben:


Katrina caused particularly significant flooding in the Hollywood/North Miami area, am I correct?


Yes, considerable. It arrived earlier than expected and we actually had a lot of damage on the coast. I believe parts of South Broward and Dade County received well over 15 inches. Most were truly unprepared for this one.
193. viman
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=4 1051
Buoy south of St. Thomas reported a gust to 64kts. Wild and wooly weather...
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
It's a he.


lol, Maybe Barry is fond of Lola and the Kinks then.
02L RGB Loop

click image for loop

Quoting Dakster:
This is kind of an ominous start to the 2013 season. In 2005 - Arlene hit Florida and Bret hit Veracruz. Cindy hit Lousiana....

I don't usually like using analogous years based on a couple of coincidences. but it is still interesting.
I believe TA13 and wxchaser97 mentioned that GFS was on/off with a tropical storm into Louisiana... no, really.
197. FOREX
Quoting Dakster:


And this is coming from someone with a psycho clown avatar.

Three things in row...not so much a coincidence.


Los Angeles or Louisiana. lol. I don't see it on 12z gfs.
Peak winds on this pass were 47 flight level winds, 47 SFMR. Pressures appear to be around 1007mb.
Quoting wxchaser97:
With ADT numbers at this:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.3mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 3.0 3.1

SAB at this:
19/1745 UTC 19.5N 95.2W T2.0/2.0 02L

And recon finding TS force flight-level and surface winds, I'm sure we have Barry right now. I'll guess 40-45mph at 5pm advisory, unless recon finds stronger winds. And is it just me, or has recon on Google Earth not updated for over 15 minutes now?
Same deal with my Google Earth, although I'm too busy fighting the .gz files again on old computer (trying to download Joplin event to view it on GR2A). I just finally got it to download after a hour of fighting it.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, considerable. It arrived earlier than expected and we actually had a lot of damage on the coast. I believe parts of South Broward and Dade County received well over 15 inches. Most were truly unprepared for this one.


Yep... I lived thru it from start to finish.
Recon just reported almost a whole data set of low end TS force winds, really no doubt now that this is a 40-45mph tropical storm.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


I can only imagine the warm humid climate of the Carribean, lol I think I'll agree with you on this issue..



I didn't remember the eye actually engulfing the northern part of Miami and south part of Hollywood... Wow...

That dreaded Gulf Stream.... Always rapidly intensifies storms.....


The eyewall engulfed most of Broward initially. (Right over my house)
Quoting FOREX:


Los Angeles or Louisiana. lol. I don't see it on 12z gfs.


It would be Lousiana... Not Los Angeles. Although an Atlantic storm hitting Los Angeles would be a first in recorded history.
TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
We got Tropical Storm Barry!!!

EDIT: Ninja'd by TropicalAnalyst13...
Quoting Dakster:


I live very close to the open ocean and have a breeze as well, but it still stifling in the day. I actually think central Florida is worse in the summer, since there is no breeze at all.


I would agree with that, though when we were over in Orlando last July my daughter was complaining she was cold most of the time!
ok I'll check back later on got to finish work stuff....
Say Hello to "TS Barry" for me :o)

Taco :o)
HI BARRY!!!..
SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
1:45 PM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.6°N 95.1°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Barry is with us 2-2-0-0.
Hi Barry!
It's official, we have TS Barry with winds of 40mph.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


I still find myself amazed on how that storm entrained dry air at the last possible moment that caused it to weaken the way it did. If there was any silver lining in that whole nightmare that was it.
I believe that it also was going through an eyewall replacement cycle as she was coming ashore.
We have Barry.

2-0-0
We have Barry.
Recon has yet to investigate the area where I believe the strongest winds are located.

So far 2013 is ahead of 2005...
A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 19/1745Z

C. 19.5N

D. 95.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
MET = 1.5 AND PT = 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
Hello Barry.
Quoting Dakster:
So far 2013 is ahead of 2005...

Ok Bud enough with the Talk about 2005 LOL :o)
I think I will get stuff put up early just saying :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS ensembles are becoming more bullish again. This is in 16 days though.


11 of the 20 ensemble members show development this run. Barely over half of them. So though there is no certainty of development, the broad consensus is that the MJO will arrive to Octants 8 and 1 by early July promoting upward motion and improving the chances of getting a couple of storms to form across the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic.
Quoting taco2me61:

Ok Bud enough with the Talk about 2005 LOL :o)
I think I will get stuff put up early just saying :o)

Taco :o)


Wait. You mean you don't have your shutters up already?
It's all up from here. Recon finding continuous readings of 35-38kt surface winds.

How strong will Barry get

A) 40-49
B) 50-59
C) 60-69
D) >70

Ill say C at 60 mph because the core is small and its location
Quoting Dakster:
So far 2013 is ahead of 2005...

I'm not as fascinated as how were ahead of 2005.. as much as I am with the similar landfalls so far as 2005
Quoting Dakster:


Wait. You mean you don't have your shutters up already?

I will when I get home "Today" thats for sure.... :o)

Taco :o)
orlandos hot a heck this time of yr also got the #1 most economically distressed city in the us.
I wonder how weird it is for Hurricane Hunters to start calling the storm differently while still flying through the storm? Like they're saying "Look like TD2 is packing a punch" and then someone said, "Actually, this is Barry now". You see what I mean?
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, Gilbert is still our worst natural disaster in recorded history.

Hurricane Gilbert produced a 19 ft (5.8 m) storm surge and brought up to 823 millimetres (32.4 in) of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica,[25] causing inland flash flooding. 49 people died.[20] Prime Minister Edward Seaga stated that the hardest hit areas near where Gilbert made landfall looked "like Hiroshima after the atom bomb."[26] The storm left $4 billion (1988 USD) in damage from destroyed crops, buildings, houses, roads, and small aircraft.[3] Two people eventually had to be rescued because of mudslides triggered by Gilbert and were sent to the hospital. The two people were reported to be fine. No planes were going in and out of Kingston, and telephone lines were jammed from Jamaica to Florida.[11]




Hurricane Gilbert
I worked with a man that went through Hurricane Charley in 1951 while living in Jamaica.. He said it was very bad indeed.
229. FOREX
Quoting weatherh98:
How strong will Barry get

A) 40-49
B) 50-59
C) 60-69
D) >70

Ill say C at 60 mph because the core is small and its location

c
Quoting Doppler22:

I'm not as fascinated as how were ahead of 2005.. as much as I am with the similar landfalls so far as 2005


I agree - but it shows that it is possible to have a record breaking season or at least a very active one.
Quoting Dakster:
So far 2013 is ahead of 2005...
2012 was way ahead of 2005 by this date.
I guess Barrying barry can wait.
Quoting weatherh98:
How strong will Barry get

A) 40-49
B) 50-59
C) 60-69
D) >70

Ill say C at 60 mph because the core is small and its location


I've already stated that I believe it's currently at 50mph, so I can't say anything differently until recon investigates where I believe those winds are located. We'll see.
Quoting taco2me61:

I will when I get home "Today" thats for sure.... :o)

Taco :o)


:0) {I hope you are kidding}


I'll say 'C' as well
236. FOREX
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Does this wave have any favorable conditions in its future?
237. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


Seems to be moving in that direction. I have been trying to get a special animation on this, but it is taking me time. I will try again.



its been there scince yesterday and maybe now alittle spin by the islands imo maybe this might make to be 93l ?
its about time! hello Mr Barry!
Just for fun:

AL, 02, 2013061918, , BEST, 0, 196N, 951W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 30, 30, 1010, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BARRY, M,
Wow. Td 2 pulled it off
The reason we have more named storms that ever has nothing to do with global warming (real or not) it has to do with the NHC giving names to storms that never would have been a named storm in the past. I can count 2 this year already.
I see we have Barry, and as a few of us suspected last evening, his track would edge a bit further northwards.

Tropical Storm Barry.


2-0-0, on pair with 2007 and 2005 at this point. As I had noted previously, unlike with 2012 were Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all had developed non-tropically, Andrea and Barry both developed tropically and in June. This is a significant indicator of an active season. If we get a Cape Verde storm before July 31st then that will be a further sure sign that there may also be numerous major hurricanes this year.
Quoting Grothar:


The eyewall engulfed most of Broward initially. (Right over my house)


When it made that WSW turn as it came onshore, didn't that cause most of the strongest winds to Be in the SW Quadrant?
Quoting MississippiWx:


I've already stated that I believe it's currently at 50mph, so I can't say anything differently until recon investigates where I believe those winds are located. We'll see.


Agreed, and i have a bad feeling about this hurricane season. :/
good afternoon friends!
Quoting Jelloboy:
The reason we have more named storms that ever has nothing to do with global warming (real or not) it has to do with the NHC giving names to storms that never would have been a named storm in the past. I can count 2 this year already.

Andrea formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Barry formed as a tropical depression that tracked over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. We have records of storms in both of these locations all the way back to the mid-1850s.

Nice try though.
Quoting allancalderini:
2012 was way ahead of 2005 by this date.


If you exclude all the non-tropically developing systems, 2013 would be ahead of 2012.
Quoting hydrus:
I worked with a man that went through Hurricane Charley in 1951 while living in Jamaica.. He said it was very bad indeed.

Yes indeed. A Coconut farmer in eastern Jamaica said that he lost 44 000 of 50 000 plants.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Storm Barry.


2-0-0, on pair with 2007 and 2005 at this point. As I had noted previously, unlike with 2012 were Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all had developed non-tropically, Andrea and Barry both developed tropically and in June. This is a significant indicator of an active season. If we get a Cape Verde storm before July 31st then that will be a further sure sign that there may also be numerous major hurricanes this year.


Like Bertha in '08
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Storm Barry.


Andrea and Barry both developed tropically and in June.
Andrea didn't technically develop tropically. She was more of a monsoonal-type storm.
Hey grothar, how you feeling now? i hope the answer is good. :D
Tropical Storm BARRY!
Quoting viman:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =4 1051
Buoy south of St. Thomas reported a gust to 64kts. Wild and wooly weather...


How is the weather in St Thomas right now?
Yesterday's Denver Tornado

Quoting Jelloboy:
The reason we have more named storms that ever has nothing to do with global warming (real or not) it has to do with the NHC giving names to storms that never would have been a named storm in the past. I can count 2 this year already.

Anyone care to take a crack at this?
Quoting Dakster:


Yep... I lived thru it from start to finish.
I still have trouble discussing Katrina, but I will say quickly that there were scenes that I saw which will affect me for the rest of my life...
Quoting Thing342:
Andrea didn't technically develop tropically. She was more of a monsoonal-type storm.


Huh? That's a tropically developing system, meaning it didn't develop from a cold-core low or trough.
Quoting Jelloboy:
The reason we have more named storms that ever has nothing to do with global warming (real or not) it has to do with the NHC giving names to storms that never would have been a named storm in the past. I can count 2 this year already.


Imagine that technology improves we can more accurately determine tropical cyclones, who would of thunk it?

Also, when we go back now and re-look at data we find more cyclones:

June 2013 - The Atlantic basin hurricane seasons of 1941 to 1945 have been officially reanalyzed. The revised database is available here. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period.
Quoting Doppler22:

I'm not as fascinated as how were ahead of 2005.. as much as I am with the similar landfalls so far as 2005

Very creepy.......
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Andrea formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Barry formed as a tropical depression that tracked over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. We have records of storms in both of these locations all the way back to the mid-1850s.

Nice try though.


Yes, I'm aware that we have storms in June -- my point is these disorganised messes in the past would not have gotten names. Andrea was perhaps a tropical storm for about 4 hours, at the most. In the past without all of the flights they send out now it never would have gotten a name. More flights, more radar, more satellites means more named storms.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If you exclude all the non-tropically developing systems, 2013 would be ahead of 2012.
Still those 3 storms deserve their name.
264. JLPR2
Heavy rain missing me to the north. Huzzah!



That TW packs quite a wallop.
Quoting Thing342:
Andrea didn't technically develop tropically. She was more of a monsoonal-type storm.


Lol. That's about as tropical as it gets...
Well folks, we now have TS Barry.
Quoting Jelloboy:


Yes, I'm aware that we have storms in June -- my point is these disorganised messes in the past would not have gotten names. Andrea was perhaps a tropical storm for about 4 hours, at the most. In the past without all of the flights they send out now it never would have gotten a name. More flights, more radar, more satellites means more named storms.

I'm not sure why you're trying to imply that using new technology to detect storms that wouldn't otherwise have been (using radar, recon, etc.) is a bad thing.
Quoting Jelloboy:


Yes, I'm aware that we have storms in June -- my point is these disorganised messes in the past would not have gotten names. Andrea was perhaps a tropical storm for about 4 hours, at the most. In the past without all of the flights they send out now it never would have gotten a name. More flights, more radar, more satellites means more named storms.

Andrea was nearly a hurricane. I don't see how you could argue it shouldn't have been named. Yes, there are more named storms now due to better technology, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't name them just because they wouldn't have been discovered years ago.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Anyone care to take a crack at this?



What shouldn't have been named about Andrea or Barry... If it meets the requirements it should be named

Both met requirements... Heck Andrea was a strong TS

People these days
How long before a new blog by Jeff Masters?
(My guess is after the NHC 4pm advisory)
Talk about a strong west-ridge/weak trough that year.

It basically has been five years since we have had a steering pattern like 2008.

2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 were all like a vacuum cleaner sucking everything up into the open Atlantic.
Even though this is showing a movement west, it looks like 2D could move into the EPAC.


Now the question becomes when will the first hurricane of the 2013 North Atlantic season be classified.
Quoting Jelloboy:


Yes, I'm aware that we have storms in June -- my point is these disorganised messes in the past would not have gotten names. Andrea was perhaps a tropical storm for about 4 hours, at the most. In the past without all of the flights they send out now it never would have gotten a name. More flights, more radar, more satellites means more named storms.


Andrea was defiantly NOT a tropical storm for about 4 hours, you're arguing with direct buoy and recon data. There was a noted developing eyewall on both the NRL sites and the radar.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 18:17:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1939'N 9500'W (19.65N 95.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 178 miles (286 km) to the NW (311) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mxico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the E (82) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119 at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 113 nautical miles (130 statute miles) to the NE (53) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22C (72F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24C (75F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23C (73F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the quadrant at 0:53
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the quadrant at 2:31
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 40 KT 053/113 17:36:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 41 KT 231/21 18:25:10Z
Convection NE of center. Little convection SW of center.

Moving close to Tabasco, MX. Gonna get spicy for Barry. ;-)
Quoting Jelloboy:


Yes, I'm aware that we have storms in June -- my point is these disorganised messes in the past would not have gotten names. Andrea was perhaps a tropical storm for about 4 hours, at the most. In the past without all of the flights they send out now it never would have gotten a name. More flights, more radar, more satellites means more named storms.


So just because we see them now, we shouldn't name them, even if they deserve it?
277. FOREX
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Now the question becomes when will the first hurricane of the 2013 North Atlantic season be classified.


July 2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why you're trying to imply that using new technology to detect storms that wouldn't otherwise have been (using radar, recon, etc.) is a bad thing.


I didn't say it was a bad thing -- what I am saying is with all the technology we have available today past years would be a lot more active than they look in the history books. My point is you can't compare say 2013 to 1983, too much has changed in that time and things that would be storms today in 1983 would not have been. I'm not saying the old way is correct, I'm just saying you can't compare past records and trends directly any longer.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Now the question becomes when will the first hurricane of the 2013 North Atlantic season be classified.

Before November, me thinks.
You can see the circulation tightening up.
Quoting Thing342:
Andrea didn't technically develop tropically. She was more of a monsoonal-type storm.

Well, she didnt develop from a cold core, so technically, 2013 should be ahead of 2005 and 2012 at this point.
Quoting Jelloboy:


Yes, I'm aware that we have storms in June -- my point is these disorganised messes in the past would not have gotten names. Andrea was perhaps a tropical storm for about 4 hours, at the most. In the past without all of the flights they send out now it never would have gotten a name. More flights, more radar, more satellites means more named storms.


Whether it was a TS for 4 hours or not that doesn't matter. Andrea was a pretty well developed TS with winds of 65mph. She was anything but a disorganized mess.
Quoting Thing342:
You can see the circulation tightening up.

Imagines if barry was out in the mid gulf....
*shudders at the thought of it*
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Before November, me thinks.


Aren't you funny
If you marked only storms that formed tropically so far...
As of the end of June...
2005- 2 storms
2006- 1 storm
2007- 1 storm
2008- 1 storm
2009- 0 storms
2010- 1 storm
2011- 1 storm
2012- 1 storm
2013- 2 storms (so far)

Just something to keep an eye on...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Now the question becomes when will the first hurricane of the 2013 North Atlantic season be classified.

Yeah, the season should get very interesting over the next couple weeks.
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, the season should get very interesting over the next couple weeks.


My personal opinion is that the first hurricane will be in the basin around the 18th of July.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
If you marked only storms that formed tropically so far...
As of the end of June...
2005- 2 storms
2006- 1 storm
2007- 1 storm
2008- 1 storm
2009- 0 storms
2010- 1 storm
2011- 1 storm
2012- 1 storm
2013- 2 storms (so far)

Just something to keep an eye on...
2012 had two storms remember,and 2 pre season storms,which makes four.
Quoting Thing342:
Andrea didn't technically develop tropically. She was more of a monsoonal-type storm.


Did you observe radar, buoy and reconnaissance data? Please explain your interpretation of the data that shows she never developed tropically.
Wow, a hunter in Canada escaped death by black bear... he was in the hunting stand when a bear appeared under him. Bear decided to climb up the tree and take a sniff at the man and his phone before climbing down and leaving. This is a proof that bears are natural tree climbers!

Facebook link to video


First tiny funk top green hot tower...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Before November, me thinks.

That's a pretty gutsy forecast there Cody, shocked to see you make such a call.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Now the question becomes when will the first hurricane of the 2013 North Atlantic season be classified.

Sometime in the month of July.

Quoting Jelloboy:


I didn't say it was a bad thing -- what I am saying is with all the technology we have available today past years would be a lot more active than they look in the history books. My point is you can't compare say 2013 to 1983, too much has changed in that time and things that would be storms today in 1983 would not have been. I'm not saying the old way is correct, I'm just saying you can't compare past records and trends directly any longer.

1983 was in the satellite era though. They were using satellites to help with storms back then. 1983 was just an unfavorable year for tropical cyclones to form.
This is funny... people thinking NHC is padding the numbers? Wow...
45mph winds from recon,may get more intense next full advisory.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2012 had two storms remember,and 2 pre season storms,which makes four.


Note how he said tropically, Alberto, Beryl and Chris developed from cold-core systems.

If you got rid of all the non-tropically developing systems in 2012, you'd end up with a final total of around 14-8-1.
It seems as if most of the heavy precipitation is moving to the north of Puerto Rico. This wave should bring some wet weather to us here in Jamaica as well.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2012 had two storms remember,and 2 pre season storms,which makes four.
First three storms of 2012 wasn't tropical. Read before you comment.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Before November, me thinks.


you're bad luck will make us have one on december 1st, and it will be our only one.
This is so cool. Another image of that Denver tornado yesterday. Reed Timmer shared this on his Facebook (was taken by another person).

Based off of the VDM, 45mph at 5p.m. EDT seems about right.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Note how he said tropically, Alberto, Beryl and Chris developed from cold-core systems.

If you got rid of all the non-tropically developing systems in 2012, you'd end up with a final total of around 14-8-1.
2011 also have a lot of high latitude systems likes Bret,Cindy and Jose.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2012 had two storms remember,and 2 pre season storms,which makes four.

They didn't form tropically.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you're bad luck will make us have one on december 1st, and it will be our only one.

Sounds about right.
Something's not right here...

With this mojo forecast:




Suprised the GFS genesis page has not lit up like a Christmas tree:

307. viman
Quoting JLPR2:
Heavy rain missing me to the north. Huzzah
Buoy south of St Thomas reported a wind gust to 64kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =41051
308. Ed22
What I'm noticing with tropical storm barry it has an awkward spin and that to me is aiding rapidly intensifying tropical storm. It could get up to 55 or 65 MPH in the next 18 hours or less.
2005:
Tropical Storm Arlene


Tropical Storm Bret


2013:

Tropical Storm Andrea

Tropical Storm Barry


Pretty similar tracks
Quoting viman:
Where's your comment.
Quoting cg2916:
Something's not right here...



What the ...

Quoting Ed22:
What I'm noticing with tropical storm barry it has an awkward spin and that to me is aiding rapidly intensifying tropical storm. It could get up to 55 or 65 MPH in the next 18 hours or less.
Maybe Hurricane.
Quoting allancalderini:
2011 also have a lot of high latitude systems likes Bret,Cindy and Jose.
Ahhh...Jose!!!! Who will ever forget Jose?
both of our systems this yr have been tropical andrea was a decent storm for that time of yr and barry is definitely tropical
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
With this mojo forecast:




Suprised the GFS genesis page has not lit up like a Christmas tree:



Agreed. My guess is that the GFS has likely made its seasonal transition and has finally settled down. From here on out, we can probably expect better accuracy with cyclogenesis and track. Intensity, however, will likely still be a lacking element.
1983 was just chosen at random, it was in reference to a length of time not an exact example.

I was born and raised in Central Florida, I used to live down abit and then across the street from where they launched the hurricane hunters. I've always paid attention to weather as for whatever reason I was fascinated by it.

There is no way you can say because we had satellites in say the 70s and 80s that the process of determining storms is the same as today. Once again, I'm not saying that we need to use only that technology, what I am saying is storms like Andrea which only spun up for a few hours most likely would have been missed in the past. That doesn't mean we go back to old standards, the point being that today we have more storms because we can better detect them. I would hope we can agree on that, I mean what else have they spent the last 30+ years working on if there are no improvements.

The entire point of me saying anything was to those that go, "GLOBAL WARMING" whenever anything happens -- and I'm not even arguing global warming. You can not directly compare records to the past since we have much better technology now.

Which is a good thing.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
With this mojo forecast:




Suprised the GFS genesis page has not lit up like a Christmas tree:



Nice! Could be very active come july.
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is so cool. Another image of that Denver tornado yesterday. Reed Timmer shared this on his Facebook (was taken by another person).



"Oh God, I hope they bring back Elvis."

What a creepy picture.
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is so cool. Another image of that Denver tornado yesterday. Reed Timmer shared this on his Facebook (was taken by another person).

Is me eyes, or is that nado spinning clockwise..
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Maybe Hurricane.


It's going to make landfall around 1-2Am tomorrow morning, it doesnt have 18 hours. Though i do anticipate some quickish strengthening .
First three storms of 2012 wasn't tropical. Read before you comment.


can i get a little help here....how does a non tropical storm get a tropical name?
Quoting cg2916:
Something's not right here...



The airplane didn't transmit for a period of 30 minutes which messed up the dataset....it's hard for me to correct plots based on unpredictable data "outages" that occur during some flights.
500mb comparison of June 2005 and June 2013. It's just not that similar.

2005


2013
Quoting nigel20:
It seems as if most of the heavy precipitation is moving to the north of Puerto Rico. This wave should bring some wet weather to us here in Jamaica as well.
There is a hint of swirl between St. Croix and the island of Vieques,Puerto Rico.

Wow look like a dog!!
wow...i need more help here.......TS barry??????.....why yesterday at this very same time...i was reading the td2 was dead and they couldn't affod to barry him......
Quoting hurricane23:


Nice! Could be very active come july.


I swear somebody stole your username, you used to be Debby Downer this year you are a reincarnation of JFV.

:)
Quoting ricderr:
First three storms of 2012 wasn't tropical. Read before you comment.


can i get a little help here....how does a non tropical storm get a tropical name?
It gains tropical characteristics. (IE, changes from a cold-cored system to a warm-cored system)

The first two storms of this season, as opposed to those other three, were tropical (warm-core) from the get-go.
Quoting hydrus:
Is me eyes, or is that nado spinning clockwise..


I'm glad you can tell based on a still photo...
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb comparison of June 2005 and June 2013. It's just not that similar.

2005


2013


Correct. Though one may look at the fact that Arlene and Bret in 2005 took similar paths to Andrea and Barry, that's were the similarities end. The conclusion is simple: Arlene, Bret, Andrea and Barry all took classic June tropical cyclone tracks.
332. viman
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Where's your comment.


Sorry, wasnt done correctly - its embedded in the quote
Quoting ricderr:
wow...i need more help here.......TS barry??????.....why yesterday at this very same time...i was reading the td2 was dead and they couldn't affod to barry him......


Are you an unemployed comedian, ricderr?
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb comparison of June 2005 and June 2013. It's just not that similar.

2005


2013

2013 isn't comparable to any year, to be honest. This year has been unique...featured a lot of mid-latitude ridging.
Quoting Dakster:


What the ...



Hey Dakster, looking at the Miami Radar, it appears that those Thunderstorms are sitting stationary inland, with no intention of moving east to
Cool us down... Day 7 with no measurable rain here in Palmetto Bay.
1005mb pressure from recon.
It gains tropical characteristics. The first two storms of this season, as opposed to those other three, were tropical from the get-go.


oh....so it was a tropical storm?.....cus from the comment....it clearly stated the first three weren't tropical.....

now while i clearly claim to not be a weather weenie...wouldn't it be more accurate....to state it as cold core system and warm core system....rather than tropical or non tropical?
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Hey Dakster, looking at the Miami Radar, it appears that those Thunderstorms are sitting stationary inland, with no intention of moving east to
Cool us down... Day 7 with no measurable rain here in Palmetto Bay.


Yep... everything is burning up here.

It keeps looking like it will from the distance!
This second pass looks more organized.. ~19.633N 95.067W 1006mb
actually gainfully employed...but thanks for asking
Quoting Jelloboy:
1983 was just chosen at random, it was in reference to a length of time not an exact example.

I was born and raised in Central Florida, I used to live down abit and then across the street from where they launched the hurricane hunters. I've always paid attention to weather as for whatever reason I was fascinated by it.

There is no way you can say because we had satellites in say the 70s and 80s that the process of determining storms is the same as today. Once again, I'm not saying that we need to use only that technology, what I am saying is storms like Andrea which only spun up for a few hours most likely would have been missed in the past. That doesn't mean we go back to old standards, the point being that today we have more storms because we can better detect them. I would hope we can agree on that, I mean what else have they spent the last 30+ years working on if there are no improvements.

The entire point of me saying anything was to those that go, "GLOBAL WARMING" whenever anything happens -- and I'm not even arguing global warming. You can not directly compare records to the past since we have much better technology now.

Which is a good thing.


I agree with you on most of your points. Because of advancements in technology, storms get named today that would not have been named in the past. Whether because they existed for just a few hours or in many cases weak systems out in the Atlantic. I disagree about Andrea. She wasn't a storm for just a few hours. She was designated on Wednesday at 6pm and made landfall nearly 24 hours later. There was plenty of information for sources such as air craft, radar, ships, and satellite to warrant the designation.
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb comparison of June 2005 and June 2013. It's just not that similar.

2005


2013


Speaking of, were do you get those? I can't seem to get my hands on them.
Quoting ricderr:
actually gainfully employed...but thanks for asking


As a Comedian? Where at?
344. 7544
Quoting JasonWins33:

Wow look like a dog!!


interesting is that blob goin wnw ?
Quoting ricderr:
It gains tropical characteristics. The first two storms of this season, as opposed to those other three, were tropical from the get-go.


oh....so it was a tropical storm?.....cus from the comment....it clearly stated the first three weren't tropical.....

now while i clearly claim to not be a weather weenie...wouldn't it be more accurate....to state it as cold core system and warm core system....rather than tropical or non tropical?
What they meant is that they had non-tropical origins.
Even the European has a fairly strong MJO pulse coming into our area of the world the last week of June into July.

The GFS was the first in showing Barry of all the models right?I believe to that the Mjo would probably bring two systems to the Eastern Pacific and two for the Atlantic.
TD 2 is now TS barry.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Speaking of, were do you get those? I can't seem to get my hands on them.


Here.

Link
oh no...not as a comedian...i offer that for free...although i did try my hand as a teenager on the streets of san francisco.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2013 isn't comparable to any year, to be honest. This year has been unique...featured a lot of mid-latitude ridging.
I hope this unique pattern doesn't send a major into a high density metropolitan area.
What they meant is that they had non-tropical origins.


well thank you thing....i knew that...however...what they meant...is not near as humorous as what they wrote
Bloody hell. Somebody light up the Taz symbol on top of the hall of wunder-justice.

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Quoting Thing342:
What they meant is that they had non-tropical origins.


I misunderstood your comment. I read it as they we not tropical systems. Big difference.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I swear somebody stole your username, you used to be Debby Downer this year you are a reincarnation of JFV.

:)


Na..every red blob doesn't develop into a cyclone. Expecting quite the uptick in activity come early mid july. Possibly even hyper-active
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:18:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°38'N 95°04'W (19.6333N 95.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 181 miles (291 km) to the NW (309°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 267° at 27kts (From the W at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 392m (1,286ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 398m (1,306ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the quadrant at 2:27
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 227/16 18:24:30Z
I have applied a manual fix to the dataset for today. Barring more interruptions from the plane, the graphs should not have any more spurious straight lines in them. Flight-level winds never breached 40kt, which doesn't really support anything stronger than a 35kt tropical storm.

Caribbean Islands Hurricane Update June 19th 2013




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qn5yVVi_Fh4
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I agree with you on most of your points. Because of advancements in technology, storms get named today that would not have been named in the past. Whether because they existed for just a few hours or in many cases weak systems out in the Atlantic. I disagree about Andrea. She wasn't a storm for just a few hours. She was designated on Wednesday at 6pm and made landfall nearly 24 hours later. There was plenty of information for sources such as air craft, radar, ships, and satellite to warrant the designation.


Fair enough then.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Even the European has a fairly strong MJO pulse coming into our area of the world the last week of June into July.

u think it can form one from africa? that MJO pulse is huge going into the indian ocean again.
361. viman
Link

OK here we go -- A bouy south of St Thomas reported a wind gust to 64kts.
Hopefully I did the link right. having issues...
Quoting viman:
Link

OK here we go -- A bouy south of St Thomas reported a wind gust to 64kts.
Hopefully I did the link right. having issues...
works fine for me.....
Are any of the models still showing another system at the end of the month
Quoting Levi32:
I have applied a manual fix to the dataset for today. Barring more interruptions from the plane, the graphs should not have any more spurious straight lines in them. Flight-level winds never breached 40kt, which doesn't really support anything stronger than a 35kt tropical storm.



Interesting to see the lowest flight-level winds were tagged exactly as they recorded the lowest minimum pressure. Probably means nothing, but Barry is organizing.
What level do you think that TS Barry is at
A: Weak TS 40-50mph
B: Midlevel TS 50-65mph
C: Strong TS 65-74mph
D: Hurricane 75mph+
E: Major Hurricane 110mph+
366. viman
Quoting JNTenne:
works fine for me.....


whooo hooo...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
OSCAT missed that wave. Windsat looks shut down again.


TRMM pass of LEEPI through the center. Click pic for quicktime.

At 384hoiurs on the GFS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHERE BARRY IS NOW.
370. SLU
Quoting MississippiWx:
500mb comparison of June 2005 and June 2013. It's just not that similar.

2005


2013


We can expect our storm tracks to be comparable to that of 1960 with almost 3 times the number of storms if this Atlantic "death ridge" holds tight.

I have to wunder (pun intended) what is more newsworthy a weak ts or 90 degree temps in alaska....welcome to the world of weather weenies where tropical activity is king
Quoting ricderr:
I have to wunder (pun intended) what is more newsworthy a weak ts or 90 degree temps in alaska....welcome to the world of weather weenies where tropical activity is king


That's primarily because tropical storms and tornadoes make great television, but climate disruption, being more gradual, does not. Only some natural events lend themselves to interesting television. The rest go unreported and ignored. If something is not on television, many people think it can't be real.
Anyone notice the TC just south of New Orleans on the GFS 12Z 10 day? Comments?