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Tropical Depression Two Forms Near Belize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the extreme Southwest Caribbean, about 60 miles east of the coast of Belize. The storm is bringing heavy rain to Belize, as seen on Belize radar, and has produced up to 6 - 8" inches of rain over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The center of circulation will be over water for about 4 - 6 hours today, before moving ashore over Belize. This may be enough time for the storm to become Tropical Storm Barry with 40 mph winds. Satellite loops show that the system is well-organized, has plenty of spin, has good upper-level outflow to the north, and has a large of amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in intensity and areal converge. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C. The Hurricane Hunter mission for Monday has been canceled, as the storm will be ashore by the time they reach it.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2.

Forecast for TD 2
TD 2 will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night and Tuesday, and may emerge into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--on Tuesday night or Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the center of TD 2 ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico on Thursday. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate through Wednesday. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so I expect this storm will become a tropical storm if its center moves over water in the Bay of Campeche. The center may remain just inland, though, keeping the storm from developing. There is no indication from the models that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico, keeping all the storm's rainfall confined to Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD likely for southern winter-spring
Issued on Tuesday 18 June 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Despite a recent cooling trend in the far eastern tropical Pacific, ENSO indicators have generally remained neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) since mid-2012. While the vast majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the winter, the development of La Niña in 2013 cannot be fully ruled out.
In the tropical Indian Ocean, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have persisted in the east, while SSTs in the western Indian Ocean have cooled over the past month or two. As a result of this pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C since mid-May. If this index remains at, or below, −0.4 °C until late July, then 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. All climate models surveyed now predict a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring period.
A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and the humidity over parts of northern Australia. The northwest cloudband that tracked across Australia during the first weekend of June is one example of how a negative IOD can influence southern Australia.













1002. VR46L
Good Morning. Afternoon or evening Folks!


1003. VR46L
24 hrs of TD2 in Microwave

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)



1004. VR46L
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting VR46L:
24 hrs of TD2 in Microwave

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)





Same but in IR.

1006. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:


Same but in IR.



Cool I never noticed that one before.

1007. VR46L
The big picture regarding TD 2 ....

GOES - Central America - infrared

1008. VR46L
CMC still seeing a Fuiji Dance in the EPAC next week ... will be interesting to see , if it takes place

1009. VR46L
Made a new blog on TD 2 for those who are interested.
1011. VR46L
Just as the Atlantic is shutting down for businees for the Time being with the SAL outbreak , the ITZC really Migrates North





Imagery :CMISS
May have a chance in the BOC?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN IN
RECENT GUIDANCE ACROSS MAJORITY OF BASIN FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
GLOBAL MODELS DOING WINDSHIELD WIPING EFFECT WITH TRAJECTORY OF
T.D. TWO...WITH LATEST 00Z RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHIFTING VERY SLIGHTLY N THROUGH 72HRS. CENTER STILL FORECAST TO
EMERGE OUT OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG ABOUT 93.5W AND CONTINUE W
OVER WATER BEFORE ENTERING MEXICO AGAIN AT ABOUT 96W. A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MOTION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WHILE OVER
WATER AND SHIP GUIDANCE BRIEFLY BRINGS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TS
STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING INCORPORATED IN OFFICIAL
FORECAST. SQUALLS AND SHORT BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUE
ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W-NW
NEXT FEW DAYS. NWPS FORECAST FROM 18Z RUN PRODUCED MAX SEAS OF 14
FT THU 12-18Z AND MAYHAVE BEEN A BIT HIGH FOR SLOW MOVING 30 KT
SYSTEM.
1014. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


I will go even further and say that the southern islands are generally wetter, whatever the time of year. But I don't like when a model ...supposed to be reliable... shows promising weather 2 days in advance (which is VERY short range) then abruptly spoils all hopes. The GFS did that several times since april.

Now waiting for the 00z run lol.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah, I've told him many times..patience!!!!!Lol
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


PR has received a lot of rain so far in 2013. We are almost 10 inches above normal.


The biggest disadvantage with St. Martin is that it's rather small and doesn't have very high terrain. Therefore, it cannot benefit from relief rainfall like the larger and more mountainous islands further south. Relief rainfall is caused by the mountains forcing the airflow from the trade winds to rise. As it rises it cools and then condenses and clouds form which brings heavy rain to the interior parts of the more mountainous islands. That is why the mountains are always surrounded by clouds.

Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic are much larger and therefore benefit from both relief and convection rainfall. Convection rainfall is caused by daytime heating. As the sun rises, it heats up the landmass. Since warm air rises, the more heat generated by the sun, the more air rises. As the air rises, it cools to form clouds. Sometimes, heavy thunderstorms are formed via this process and they can cause heavy flash floods. As the sun starts to set in the evening, the amount of heat decreases and then this causes the clouds to dissipate and the rainfall decreases. The best example of this process occurs in Cuba since it's the largest island. Cuba almost always has heavy afternoon thunderstorms as a result of this process.
1015. beell
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
May have a chance in the BOC?




Maybe. Still keeping up with the 500 and 700mb height falls (the "altitude" of a particular pressure level-lower heights over time could be an indication of a weakening ridge over the western gulf).

Nothing that screams "yes" so far, but a little bit of softness noted in the ridge between the northern tip of the Yucatan and the far southern BOC. ADDED: Some of that would have to be attributed to the approach of the storm itself.
Here is the 2011 summary by NHC where is contrary from what JB is saying about the Indian Ocean Dipole. Go to pages 9-11.

Link
Gregor Peter%u200F@L0gg0l4 min
To clarify, the suspected gas main explosion happened 50 miles north of New Orleans, rural area @russian_market

Gregor Peter%u200F@L0gg0l7 min
RT @stevecaparotta: Radar from 5:55 AM appears to show plume from reported gas main explosion near Franklinton.
Link




Hello everyone.

The Indian Ocean in 2004 and 2013 both look quite similar. Sea surface temps. in the Atlantic also look alike.

Question: what is that large pool of above average SSTs in the northern Pacific? It seems like a fixture similar to ENSO. I'm not sure though.
Quoting beell:


Maybe. Still keeping up with the 500 and 700mb height falls (the "altitude" of a particular pressure level-lower heights over time could be an indication of a weakening ridge over the western gulf).

Nothing that screams "yes" so far, but a little bit of softness noted in the ridge between the northern tip of the Yucatan and the far southern BOC. ADDED: Some of that would have to be attributed to the approach of the storm itself.


Interesting. Thanks Beell. :)
Quoting Luisport:
Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l4 min
To clarify, the suspected gas main explosion happened 50 miles north of New Orleans, rural area @russian_market

Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l7 min
RT @stevecaparotta: Radar from 5:55 AM appears to show plume from reported gas main explosion near Franklinton. https://twitter.com/stevecaparotta/status/34694959 7559681024/photo/1
Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l2 min
10,000 PEOPLE WITHOUT POWER AFTER GAS PLANT EXPLODES IN LOUISIANA, LOCAL RADIO SAYS
if td 2 slows down like anticipated over the boc is could be a moderate tropical storm.
Good morning everyone from the thick deciduous forests of Southern Illinois!! :-) Looking very bright and sunny today. Yah! Noticed the sunrise through my bedroom window when I woke up. Now I get to make my new blend of coffee I got from some Columbian beans.

SouthernIllinois / Natalie

1023. beell
A somewhat weak trough over the west eroding the ridge over the Gulf on Thursday. Could be too little, too late-but may allow some moisture into S TX with today's 06Z 700mb GFS.

Quoting Luisport:
Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l2 min
10,000 PEOPLE WITHOUT POWER AFTER GAS PLANT EXPLODES IN LOUISIANA, LOCAL RADIO SAYS
Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l2 min
RT @ChrisFinchFOX8: St. Tammany Parish Fire says no reports of injuires.
1025. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks.........................
YUM. *Sips new Columbian blend coffee* I am very pleased. Pickup up nearly 2" of rain yesterday. Now the rest of the week looks dry with things heating up by the weekend into the 90's. But that is okay because we are set for moisture!! :D
1027. pcola57
Waking up to some early morning rumbles..

1028. beell
Pretty interesting storm motion this morning.

Quoting pcola57:
Waking up to some early morning rumbles..



Just had a downpour over here in Mobile at about 6 am. It was nice!
From the looks of it, I'm not so sure that TD2 will ever get over water again. It appears poised to stay just north of the Bay of Campeche.

Natalie
1031. SLU
Quoting amatuermet:




Hello everyone.

The Indian Ocean in 2004 and 2013 both look quite similar. Sea surface temps. in the Atlantic also look alike.

Question: what is that large pool of above average SSTs in the northern Pacific? It seems like a fixture similar to ENSO. I'm not sure though.


It's the negative PDO signature.

2004 and 2013 have a very similar global SSTs pattern. Food for thought.
1032. pcola57
Good Morning All..
79 degrees with 78%rh and dew at 72..
Thunderstorm with winds from the WNW at 13..

Spotty rain along the beaches..
Surfs building a bit..



1033. pcola57
Quoting keithneese:


Just had a downpour over here in Mobile at about 6 am. It was nice!


Good Morning keithneese..
Maybe more for us around here today..
I'll take it !!.. :)

Belize topography seems to be doing a number on number 2. The center is starting to look like number 2. Dr. M gave a forecast through Thursday, does the system have a shot at bringing moisture to the West US at all?

Whats on the sideboard? I'm famished.
1035. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
From the looks of it, I'm not so sure that TD2 will ever get over water again. It appears poised to stay just north of the Bay of Campeche.

Natalie


I think it may just stay south of the BOC;)
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning keithneese..
Maybe more for us around here today..
I'll take it !!.. :)



Good morning to you too! We really need the rain, so I second that.
Good Morning Folks. Have a very busy day today so will be mostly in lurk mode.

Just noting (Yall already have the waning TD covered), that we are seeing some pretty healthy waves making the crossing across the Atlantic for this time of the year.

The current cluster about to enter the Leewards is being sheared to death (see current CIMSS chart below) so they are not going to develop but very impressive to see this particular cluster entering the Caribbean already, at a higher latitude, at this time of the year.

Link

Once the sheer drops considerably in the Central Atlantic in a few weeks, the models may start developing (with a few ghost storms) some of these African waves come the mid-July to early-August time frame.
1038. pcola57
National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce



Severe Weather Possible Again On Tuesday

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma expects a slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday. The area of greatest concern is in the Western and Central United States from Montana to Texas. Damaging winds, large hail and even a few isolated tornadoes are all possible.
Read More...
Hazardous Weather Conditions

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Current Conditions


Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

74F

23C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedS 13 G 24 mph
Barometer29.99 in (1015.6 mb)
Dewpoint72F (22C)
Visibility1.50 mi

Last Update on 18 Jun 6:56 am CDT

Current conditions at

Pensacola, Naval Air Station (KNPA)

Lat: 30.36 Lon: -87.32 Elev: 33ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Pensacola, Naval Air Station FL
7 Day Forecast

Mobile, AL

NWS Weather Forecast Office

Today

Scattered Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Scattered
Thunderstorms

High: 90 F

Tonight

Scattered Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 50%

Scattered
Thunderstorms

Low: 75 F

Wednesday

Thunderstorms Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Thunderstorms
Likely

High: 88 F

Wednesday
Night

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Thunderstorms

Low: 73 F

Thursday

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Thunderstorms

High: 89 F

Thursday
Night

Slight Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Slight Chc
Thunderstorms

Low: 75 F

Friday

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Thunderstorms

High: 88 F

Friday
Night

Slight Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%

Slight Chc
Thunderstorms

Low: 75 F

Saturday

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%

Chance
Thunderstorms

High: 88 F

Today Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight.
Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight.
Friday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph.
Saturday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Sunday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.
Sunday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Monday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.




11.10" of rain so far this month NW side of Orlando . Ground is extremely saturated!

Also encountered the worst lightning storm I have ever seen yesterday evening in Orlando.
1040. hydrus
I t appears to have jogged north, probably due to interaction with land. I am wondering if this trend continues.
1041. pcola57

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180835
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED...
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN
GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH
OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN
SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
1042. hydrus
Quoting biff4ugo:
Belize topography seems to be doing a number on number 2. The center is starting to look like number 2. Dr. M gave a forecast through Thursday, does the system have a shot at bringing moisture to the West US at all?

Whats on the sideboard? I'm famished.
Porter house with scrambled eggs, well done home fries with sauteed onions and fresh brewed coffee ( chicory )..:)
1043. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
I t appears to have jogged north, probably due to interaction with land. I am wondering if this trend continues.


It will be interesting to see what daylight will show , if its still a TD ,if it gets into the BOC intact all bets are off!
Quoting VR46L:


I think it may just stay south of the BOC;)

OMG, Liz!! My bad! My new coffee blend has not kicked in JUST yet. haha. *Takes another Sip*

Thanks again for correcting me. :)

Nat
1046. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

OMG, Liz!! My bad! My new coffee blend has not kicked in JUST yet. haha. *Takes another Sip*

Thanks again for correcting me. =)

Nat


I know , Sorry :)I got an advantage on you on my 5th Cup and up quite a while already ...
Many areas in C FL could approach all-time rain records for June if this keeps up.

Sheer is pretty low in the BOC at the moment but unless a viable circulation emerges well into the Bay on the other side which can feed off the warm waters and regenerate, I have to concur with the current NHC plot not taking it past depression status. Just too much land interaction if this track verifies.

Also note how slow it is moving over land (8 mph)...Not feeling too hopeful here.....
Quoting hydrus:
Porter house with scrambled eggs, well done home fries with sauteed onions and fresh brewed coffee ( chicory )..:)

No disrespect to our regular Chef...BUT YOU'RE HIRED!!!
Quoting SLU:


The biggest disadvantage with St. Martin is that it's rather small and doesn't have very high terrain. Therefore, it cannot benefit from relief rainfall like the larger and more mountainous islands further south. Relief rainfall is caused by the mountains forcing the airflow from the trade winds to rise. As it rises it cools and then condenses and clouds form which brings heavy rain to the interior parts of the more mountainous islands. That is why the mountains are always surrounded by clouds.

Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic are much larger and therefore benefit from both relief and convection rainfall. Convection rainfall is caused by daytime heating. As the sun rises, it heats up the landmass. Since warm air rises, the more heat generated by the sun, the more air rises. As the air rises, it cools to form clouds. Sometimes, heavy thunderstorms are formed via this process and they can cause heavy flash floods. As the sun starts to set in the evening, the amount of heat decreases and then this causes the clouds to dissipate and the rainfall decreases. The best example of this process occurs in Cuba since it's the largest island. Cuba almost always has heavy afternoon thunderstorms as a result of this process.


Good morning guys! Thank you for the nice explanation SLU.

Still hopping for a few showers with the approaching wave, but it still looks very far south.
1051. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:


It will be interesting to see what daylight will show , if its still a TD ,if it gets into the BOC intact all bets are off!




1052. VR46L
At the moment there is recon Scheduled for the BOC

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171455
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT MON 17 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-017

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1645Z C. 19/0800Z
D. 19.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 94.5W
E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
1053. hydrus
Quoting VR46L:


I know , Sorry :)I got an advantage on you on my 5th Cup and up quite a while already ...
I kill a pot and a half easily just about evry mornin..Where are you at VR46L.?
unusual late night thunderstorm here in e cen florida maybe a quarter to half inch of precip. my rain gauge got knocked over by the winds
1055. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
I kill a pot and a half easily just about evry mornin..Where are you at VR46L.?


On the Coast in the Republic of Ireland .... I have an interest in the fish ...
1056. hydrus
Quoting StormPro:

No disrespect to our regular Chef...BUT YOU'RE HIRED!!!
This brotha can sling the hash..Born and raised on the water. Would catch all kinds of seafood and cook it fresh...Can grill with the best of em..:)
Thanks Hydrus and Geoff. It definitely looks north of those tracks at the moment, but I am very visual and not looking at the pressure center.
Quoting hydrus:
This brotha can sling the hash..Born and raised on the water. Would catch all kinds of seafood and cook it fresh...Can grill with the best of em..:)


Where are you located? Exactly LOL (holding Garmin ready to enter address)
94 yesterday in McGrath, Alaska. The forecast calls for mid 90s in parts of the Alaskan Tanana Valley the next two days. Just crazy weather up there.
Quoting ClimateChange:
94 yesterday in McGrath, Alaska. The forecast calls for mid 90s in parts of the Alaskan Tanana Valley the next two days. Just crazy weather up there.

And wasn't it like in the -40 to -60 range back in March?? Some wild swings up there!!!

Natalie
1061. VR46L
Quoting StormPro:


Where are you located? Exactly LOL (holding Garmin ready to enter address)


LMAO !!!

Is it nice weather in LA today ?
G'mornin' -

Gonna be another hot n humid and probably rain-free day here in Lantana. Pic taken about 6:45 am


If so, this'll be the 10th day in a row without precip
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
11.10" of rain so far this month NW side of Orlando . Ground is extremely saturated!

Also encountered the worst lightning storm I have ever seen yesterday evening in Orlando.

That is INSANE Scott! Man, I wish that's how it was by me. Although not complaining by any means with the nearly 2" we picked up yesterday afternoon. But 11.10" is nutso. And GREAT PIC! :-)

Nat
1064. hydrus
Quoting StormPro:


Where are you located? Exactly LOL (holding Garmin ready to enter address)
Right now I am in Middle Tennessee on the Cumberland Plateau taking care of a fragile Mom. Was born on Miami Beach and raised on the barrier islands of S.W.Florida. Lived there over 40 years. miss home very much.
12z Best Track position is more to the NW.

AL, 02, 2013061812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 896W, 25, 1009, TD
1066. pcola57
Quoting ClimateChange:
94 yesterday in McGrath, Alaska. The forecast calls for mid 90s in parts of the Alaskan Tanana Valley the next two days. Just crazy weather up there.


WU shows 96 at McGrath, airport yesterday..
Today predicted 92..
Wow..

Link
Finally, don't lose sight of the folks on the ground....A slow moving tropical depression will cause life threatening mudslides and flash floods. We might end up with a few deaths down there as a result.

See Yall Later.
1068. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the 2011 summary by NHC where is contrary from what JB is saying about the Indian Ocean Dipole. Go to pages 9-11.

Link


Joe Bastardi's insane forecast of 17-5-1 is going to flop big time. The IOD is actually negative which is more favourable for MDR activity as compared to its strongly positive values in ASO 2011 which suppressed MDR activity.
Quoting VR46L:


LMAO !!!

Is it nice weather in LA today ?

To paraphrase Robin Williams: continued hot and crappy with a chance of showers, followed by hot and sticky. Tomorrow rain and hot with continuing crappy sticky lol
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

That is INSANE Scott! Man, I wish that's how it was by me. Although not complaining by any means with the nearly 2" we picked up yesterday afternoon. But 11.10" is nutso. And GREAT PIC! :-)

Nat


I'm also in North Orlando; That was one heck of a lightshow from that storm last night!

It was constant lightning, so constant that the sky had an almost florescent light-type blueish glow that was flashing like a strobe light. Very surreal...
1071. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Good morning guys! Thank you for the nice explanation SLU.

Still hopping for a few showers with the approaching wave, but it still looks very far south.


Yeah you're gonna get plenty. It's gonna be a busy year.
Quoting hydrus:
Right now I am in Middle Tennessee on the Cumberland Plateau taking care of a fragile Mom. Was born on Miami Beach and raised on the barrier islands of S.W.Florida. Lived there over 40 years. miss home very much.


I grew up here in south Louisiana but now live in the Chattanooga area. But currently I'm down here in NOLA working, have been for 3 years. Tennessee is home tho...love having 4 seasons instead of the 3 days of Winter/Spring and 362 of hott
1073. beell
1074. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Porter house with scrambled eggs, well done home fries with sauteed onions and fresh brewed coffee ( chicory )..:)


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.
1075. SLU
Quoting SLU:


Joe Bastardi's insane forecast of 17-5-1 is going to flop big time. The IOD is actually negative which is more favourable for MDR activity as compared to its strongly positive values in ASO 2011 which suppressed MDR activity.


Excerpt:

In the tropical Indian Ocean, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have persisted in the east, while SSTs in the western Indian Ocean have cooled over the past month or two. As a result of this pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C since mid-May. If this index remains at, or below, −0.4 °C until late July, then 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. All climate models surveyed now predict a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring (northern summer-autumn) period.

This means that the current pattern will favour a busy MDR contrary to JB's theory. Throw in the La Nina-type set up and the warm SSTs in the MDR.... no way this is going to be an average year.
1076. hydrus
Quoting StormPro:


I grew up here in south Louisiana but now live in the Chattanooga area. But currently I'm down here in NOLA working, have been for 3 years. Tennessee is home tho...love having 4 seasons instead of the 3 days of Winter/Spring and 362 of hott
Absolutely..During the winter of 88-89 in S.W.Florida, out of about 90 days of winter, it was over 80 degrees 65 of those days with only three night near freezing.....Winter was a virtual no show.
Quoting pcola57:


WU shows 96 at McGrath, airport yesterday..
Today predicted 92..
Wow..

Link




warm across entire north
Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.

I remember my diet following my heart attack. Took me back to the days in grade school when I used to eat paste.
Nice to see you up and posting, Grothar!
Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.


you forgot yer prune juice
Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone

Another hot dry day over here. With all the cloud cover we've been having you'd think we'd be getting lots of rain but not a drop in weeks. I believe Puerto Rico is stealing it all from us (40 miles from us).

As an aside, I've been busy dealing with mangos and jam. Of course, as careful as I am with not touching the skins of the mangos (they are in the poison ivy/oak/summac family, believe it or not) by having someone else pick and peel them, I got nailed again this year. Nothing short of amputation of my arms, hands and neck will relieve the itching.

Such is one of the perils of island life!

Lindy
Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.
So glad to see ya back Gro.Hope you are feeling better.Have missed you picking up on them blobs out there.
1082. hydrus
Quoting SLU:


Excerpt:

In the tropical Indian Ocean, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have persisted in the east, while SSTs in the western Indian Ocean have cooled over the past month or two. As a result of this pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C since mid-May. If this index remains at, or below, −0.4 °C until late July, then 2013 will be classified as a negative IOD year. All climate models surveyed now predict a negative IOD during the southern winter-spring (northern summer-autumn) period.

This means that the current pattern will favour a busy MDR contrary to JB's theory. Throw in the La Nina-type set up and the warm SSTs in the MDR.... no way this is going to be an average year.
Unsettling info there SLU. I do not mind saying that am fascinated by these storms, but do not want to be hit by one again...2004 being the worse year of my life.
1083. VR46L
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




warm across entire north


Morning Keep ... Thanks for the videos really appreciated them this morning...


In North America yes its warm .. but I would sure love some of that heat ...a cool 55°F here ...
1084. Grothar
Quoting DrMickey:

I remember my diet following my heart attack. Took me back to the days in grade school when I used to eat paste.
Nice to see you up and posting, Grothar!



mmmm paste? What flavors do they come in?
1085. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.
Absolutely..There is not a thing lacking about this blogs appetite..
Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.


Quick!! Someone email aislinn and tell her not to post breakfast this morning!!

Lindy
Quoting VR46L:


Morning Keep ... Thanks for the videos really appreciated them this morning...


In North America yes its warm .. but I would sure love some of that heat ...a cool 55°F here ...


your welcome

by the 25th you should be in mid 70's

1088. VR46L
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


your welcome

by the 25th you should be in mid 70's



That would be very nice as this cold pattern is getting pretty old !
Quoting VR46L:


That would be very nice as this cold pattern is getting pretty old !

Don't know how you do it. Sorry, but just don't know how you handle it. I would be flipping out. :p

Nat
fresh off the press

1091. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Don't know how you do it. Sorry, but just don't know how you handle it. I would be flipping out. :p

Nat


Ah I guess cool weather for a cool chick ....Kidding Sometimes it drives me crazy ...
Quoting VR46L:


Ah I guess cool weather for a cool chick ....Kidding Sometimes it drives me crazy ...

It would drive me BANANAS!!!!!
1093. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
Unsettling info there SLU. I do not mind saying that am fascinated by these storms, but do not want to be hit by one again...2004 being the worse year of my life.


Sorry to hear man. All of us in the Atlantic Basin are at risk of such in any year.
1094. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It would drive me BANANAS!!!!!


LOL ... at least I don't have the violent weather you guys get ..All I get bad , is STORMY weather, don't even get much snow !
Quoting hydrus:
Right now I am in Middle Tennessee on the Cumberland Plateau taking care of a fragile Mom. Was born on Miami Beach and raised on the barrier islands of S.W.Florida. Lived there over 40 years. miss home very much.


What barrier islands hydrus? Sanibel, Captiva, Fort Myers Beach, Marco Island?
Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.


Well I gess I better not say then anything. and just keep drinking my coffee.... I don't need to be deported I mean Reported.... :o)

good Morning Grothar :o)

Taco :o)

Quoting Grothar:


1 low fat yogurt, 1 scrambled egg white. 1 slice whole wheat bread (no butter). The next person who posts a delicious breakfast will be reported.


1 box of cereal.
Orange juice.....

Yeah it's boring, I know.
1098. wetrain
Nevada Here from Jamaica, boy we here in Angels, Spanish town, have seen any good rain since 1st of June and today is June 18, 17 days of dry weather. The wave that moved close to us gave very little rain here in the old capital,others sections of the island got some good rain. That wave is now tropical Depression #2. And our best chance of rain is either Thursday or Friday when another tropical wave pass close to us.
EF-1 damage is very slight


Center appears to be well north of last NHC 12z Best Track estimate. I think it will become Barry in the BoC tomorrow.

AL, 02, 2013061812, , BEST, 0, 174N, 896W, 25, 1009, TD



some people will push 10" for just the last 3 days.


for ATL

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 1.50 1.61 1937 0.13 1.37 0.00

MONTH TO DATE 8.68 2.00 6.68 2.26

SINCE JUN 1 8.68" 2.00 6.68 2.26

SINCE JAN 1 36.43" 22.71 13.72 18.79
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
EF-1 damage is very slight




When we had EF-1 nearby in 1998, we went out to see what damage was done. There was a perfect, fairly straight path of downed trees down one mountain and back up the next. I thought it looked like the power company had been out out clearing up for a new line :))
1103. VR46L

vis_ir_background/goes_lowcloud NRL VIIRS Image

1104. VR46L
Sun is up

Quoting VR46L:
Sun is up



The change in direction more to the NW is evident.
Quoting SLU:


Joe Bastardi's insane forecast of 17-5-1 is going to flop big time. The IOD is actually negative which is more favourable for MDR activity as compared to its strongly positive values in ASO 2011 which suppressed MDR activity.


17-5-1

Your kidding right? This guy is clearly toneing down his numbers after the flip-flop from the euro mslp. From my perspective i just dont see any reason why we arent going to see another above average season. In terms of landfalls the global-scale flow has been gradually retrograding westward, which should result in the east-coast trough moving farther inland over the central U.S. driving storms very close to the US. Atlantic looks quiet next 2-3 weeeks before mjo wave sparks things around the 4th of july.
1107. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


1 box of cereal.
Orange juice.....

Yeah it's boring, I know.


I had a Mt. Dew for breakfast...

Had a good storm blow through here yesterday afternoon. Never got severe warned, but the winds brought down some good sized limbs, estimating ~50 MPH, and the lightning was awesome!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1109. hydrus
Quoting FtMyersgal:


What barrier islands hydrus? Sanibel, Captiva, Fort Myers Beach, Marco Island?
Grew up on Captiva Island at Twin Palms Marina in the 70,s and 80,s.
1110. SLU
Quoting hurricane23:


17-5-1

Your kidding right? This guy is clearly toneing down his numbers after the flip-flop from the euro mslp. From my perspective i just dont see any reason why we arent going to see another above average season. In terms of landfalls the global-scale flow has been gradually retrograding westward,
which should result in the east-coast trough moving farther inland over the central U.S. driving storms very close to the US. Atlantic looks quiet next 2-3 weeeks before mjo wave sparks things around the 4th of july.


He said he reduced it because of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole. However his theory is wrong because negative IOD set ups favour an active MDR. 2011 had suppressed MDR hurricane activity because the IOD was strongly positive. Furthermore, 1 MH is ridiculous. Even 2009 has 2 majors in a highly unfavourable year. Also the EURO has been highly inconsistent from month to month and there are no signs of an impending El Nino by ASO.
Quoting hurricane23:


17-5-1

Your kidding right? This guy is clearly toneing down his numbers after the flip-flop from the euro mslp. From my perspective i just dont see any reason why we arent going to see another above average season. In terms of landfalls the global-scale flow has been gradually retrograding westward, which should result in the east-coast trough moving farther inland over the central U.S. driving storms very close to the US. Atlantic looks quiet next 2-3 weeeks before mjo wave sparks things around the 4th of july.


The Euro's ENSO forecast is progressing towards more of a El Nino "Modoki" state with a cool, La Nina like tongue sticking out in the Nino 3.4 regions. The Euro probably is having trouble picking out such an unusual pattern and giving a correct. If a Modoki forms, then 2013 will probably be very active. The general SST profile, pressure setup, and ENSO forecasts remind me of 2004 and to an extent 2007 as well. We'll see what happens.
1112. ncstorm
Good Morning..The CMC and Euro still seeing a possible invest/depression happening off the NC/SC coast in a little as 72 hours..and no I didnt post any ghost images this time..
NEW BLOG!
1114. VR46L
.
Quoting VR46L:


Morning Keep ... Thanks for the videos really appreciated them this morning...


In North America yes its warm .. but I would sure love some of that heat ...a cool 55°F here ...


Oh you're much cooler than me across the Irish Sea. We've been high 60's all day. Thankfully has become overcast...thankfully I say, as sorting the garden today and way too hot in the Sun LOL But pumpkin sproutlings shooting up fast, so need to get them transplanted as have some extra days off this week...and deal with the 2 feet high grass :P

I think TD2 has looked just like you want a nice TD to look like over the last many days, and agree, was much healthier looking than Andrea was.

Breakfast, usually just some warm lemon juice, iced herbal tea and latte or chai latte with 1/2 soy milk and 1/2 whole milk (as hate the taste of low fat milk!)...maybe sometimes a banana or yoghurt if I remembered to buy some, exciting! I'm quite little, so can't really do proper brekkie or I pack on the weight, despite them always saying the opposite...doesn't work that way for me sadly! Would love a proper sausage country breakfast again someday, they don't really have the ingredients here, though sometimes can find country gravy mix and Jiffy biscuit mix on the American food website here LOL But I'd likely have it for dinner and not brekkie!

Back to the garden, good day all!
Quoting SLU:


He said he reduced it because of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole. However his theory is wrong because negative IOD set ups favour an active MDR. 2011 had suppressed MDR hurricane activity because the IOD was strongly positive. Furthermore, 1 MH is ridiculous. Even 2009 has 2 majors in a highly unfavourable year. Also the EURO has been highly inconsistent from month to month and there are no signs of an impending El Nino by ASO.


SLU, are you basing this on: The 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate Perspective?
new blogggggggggggggggggggggg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!