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Caribbean Disturbance Little Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:20 AM GMT on June 16, 2013

A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the Southwest Caribbean near the coast of Nicaragua in association with a tropical wave that is moving slowly west northwest towards Nicaragua and Honduras. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, which will keep any development slow. The high shear is due to the presence of the subtropical jet stream, which is expected to push northwards over the next few days. This may allow wind shear to fall to the moderate range on Monday, when the wave will be in the Northwest Caribbean, between Honduras and Belize. NHC is giving the disturbance only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday, but these odds may increase on Monday when the wave has crossed into the Northwest Caribbean--if the wind shear drops. The wave will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday and may emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche as early as Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the wave ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico late in the week. Wind shear is expected to remain high during the entire period, keeping any development slow. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so the disturbance's odds of formation are the greatest on Wednesday through Friday, after it crosses the Yucatan. None of the models develop the disturbance, and there is no indication that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the tropical disturbance in the Southwest Caribbean on Saturday, June 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
819 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 817 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF LYDIA TO 5 MILES WEST OF ULYSSES...
AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
BE DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRIEND...HOLCOMB...GARDEN CITY...PLYMELL...SATANTA...PIERCEVILLE...
SUBLETTE...CHARLESTON...TICE AND COPELAND.
You're all maggots to me, so I think that's fair.

Drop and give me twenty 850mb vorticity charts.
1003. JDSmith
How is data for vorticity analysis collected? And how often is it refreshed? Does anyone know?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I never saw that model. I hope not.
It was on the ensembles that TWA13 posted a few days ago.The model it's self has been in consistent with showing a second storm forming.In some runs it'll show it others it won't.
Quoting Tazmanian:




all right keep i take the 1hr bannd whats have it then after that we can all get back too the weather


deal?


Taz both you and Aussie contribute to the blog, let's all let bygones be bygones and move on, weather can change on a dime, so can some peoples temper, relax take a deep breath and smell the roses and always remember if you choose to engage or insult someone, would like them to do the same to you, just take a little time and think before you say or write something, life is too short my friend!
1006. Patrap
Quoting JDSmith:
How is data for vorticity analysis collected? And how often is it refreshed? Does anyone know?


By Aircraft RECON when able, and..

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



AL932013 - INVEST RAMMB Page
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was on the ensembles that TWA13 posted a few days ago.The model it's self has been in consistent with showing a second storm forming.In some runs it'll show it others it won't.


I'm a five-day model guy. Anything beyond that is just interesting.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm a five-day model guy. Anything beyond that is just interesting.
It's just eye candy when it gets that far out.lol.
1009. docrod
Quoting Skyepony:
He is one exception. We would not ban him unless he's really destroyed or stopped the blog or something. It's up to you all the community to help him find his way. It's you all that are suddenly being inconsistent. The community has for the most part done great in quickly flagging him out & only gently nudging him in a better direction if need be. It's what's probibly best for Taz & the community. This isn't topic here. Take it to the community blog..


Hi Skye and Aussie,

I've been off line for several days after a massive lightening strike knocked out just about everything here. I felt the concussion as well as seeing the flash and hearing the boom at the same instant in time. AT&T will be at the house tomorrow to figure out wad-happened. Mysteriously my internet came back online this eve (but at dial up speeds).

I've been checking out the discussion for the first time since Thursday. My take for what it is worth ... Taz is certainly a one of a kind .... been on my ignore list more than once over the years. However, other extremely prolific commenters have also been on my ignore list with me, some of them very popular. Don't know what brought about the Taz comments but I can guess.

I appreciate your (Aussie's) nudging, and I agree (Skye) with that approach. I don't care to see any bridge being burned ever.

y'all be good - I'm busy trimming trees with a passion for this season's travails. I'm expecting a significant challenge (sigh)in the Keys this year.
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!

EDIT: Saved here for viewing whenever.

Quoting washingtonian115:
It's just eye candy when it gets that far out.lol.


Present trend is that NHC gains 1 day in forecasting skill in terms of accuracy and precision for every decade of time that passes. However, this is only for systems that are already named. The skill for unclassified systems path and future intensity is quite pathetic by comparison.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!
TWA13 do you still have those ensembles from the GFS?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!


It's not stacked.

Give it 6 to 12 and check back, I'd say.

If the circulation really is off-shore, there would be a lot higher chance of the system managing to turn northwards like the old model runs were suggesting.

As is, it seems to be caught up in that low(?) out ahead of it over Guatamala.
Quoting washingtonian115:
TWA13 do you still have those ensembles from the GFS?

18z GFS individual ensembles Day 14
18z GFS individual ensembles Day 15
18z GFS individual ensembles Day 16

The timeline isn't moving up yet which makes me question whether the GFS is being too quick on development, or if it's just a ghost storm altogether. Time will tell.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!
I agree,TA13 is right,stop arguing,check the link out I posted on the last page.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

18z GFS individual ensembles Day 14
18z GFS individual ensembles Day 15
18z GFS individual ensembles Day 16

The timeline isn't moving up yet which makes me question whether the GFS is being too quick on development, or if it's just a ghost storm altogether. Time will tell.
Thank you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!


I agree with you, but we'll have to wait and see , tomorrow should tell a whole other story on 93L
1018. yqt1001
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!


That looks mid level to me. I highly doubt that the system is that organized.
00z statistical models agree 93L should have plenty of development room once in the Bay of Campeche.



I think I'll be back later. Been too involved in the blog today.
1020. docrod
checking out ... my internet connection is still barely running and it's a beast waiting for refreshes. tech due tomorrow to fix it.

ttyl - eve
1021. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:


I agree with you, but we'll have to wait and see , tomorrow should tell a whole other story on 93L


Tomorrow is Monday.
We're all Doomed anyway.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
00z statistical models agree 93L should have plenty of development room once in the Bay of Campeche.



I think I'll be back later. Been too involved in the blog today.


What model is the CLP5 and how accurate is it? ;)
Quoting pottery:


Tomorrow is Monday.
We're all Doomed anyway.


My least favorite day it is too.
Doomed? Lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What model is the CLP5 and how accurate is it? ;)


*sends Teddy a slap via internet*
Quoting pottery:


Tomorrow is Monday.
We're all Doomed anyway.

Hey Pot, lmao, did you finally get some rain?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Felix paso por ahi en el 2007. Bastante destruccion dejo a su paso tras impactar en categoria 5. En Honduras estubo bien feo verdad?

Some political divisions I have to look at from there
Not really Max,Felix what cause was hyper everyone was scare of a re-Mitch but it didn`t happen thank God.Felix only kill between 2 or 5 in Honduras most of the deaths were in Nicaragua.TD sixteen next year caused more deaths and damage,that can prove that even a weak system can cause more damage than a stronger one.
Quoting pottery:


Tomorrow is Monday.
We're all Doomed anyway.


BTW , tomorrow here is Public Holiday! So we're cool!
1028. beell
NWS National Telecommunications Center-Meteorological Station Information Lookup

Use the "Display all stations in a Country" search. Not all of these are current. Can't vouch for the accuracy or reliability. A fwiw link.

Change the 4 letter identifier for the station of your choice at the tail end of the web address here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watch this loop:

Link

There is very obviously a low-level center north-northeast of the convective burst over northern Honduras...just off the coast.

Final answer!

EDIT: Saved here for viewing whenever.

I think you are right
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
00z statistical models agree 93L should have plenty of development room once in the Bay of Campeche.



I think I'll be back later. Been too involved in the blog today.


In terms of track, this scenario is incredibly similar to Alex as an invest and TD, though certainly nothing like it in terms of scale at this point in the track.

This is why I think a few dozen miles change in circulation center's latitude could lead to a large swing in eventual track.

Recall Alex was about where this one's center? is, but then started hooking north as it hit Belize, and got into the BoC and went Cat 2 (cat 4 pressure) in a hurry.



Interesting.
For those upset about any unequal treatment on Taz's part... He has requested to be banned the same as everyone else..so he's is banned til the morning.


I know 93L is lacking convection..DMax is coming.. focus on it..click pic & watch it spin..

1032. JDSmith
All satellite imagery suggests that the circulation is over water right now... Right around 16.5N-84.5W. There is a significant amount of divergence aloft on those coordinates...while convergence is being generated at the "vormax" over land... Is this thing planning on reorganizing under its convection...? Or do y'all think it'll keep with the current vorticity maps?
1033. Patrap
Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other
beginning's end


The models are starting to trend north..will 93L be..Pumping the ridge?!?.lol.
Quoting allancalderini:
Not really Max,Felix what cause was hyper everyone was scare of a re-Mitch but it didn`t happen thank God.Felix only kill between 2 or 5 in Honduras most of the deaths were in Nicaragua.TD sixteen next year caused more deaths and damage,that can prove that even a weak system can cause more damage than a stronger one.


Nicaragua...that's what I meant this whole time.
1036. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hey Pot, lmao, did you finally get some rain?

Yeah. Clearing up now after several days, some of it heavy.
It's been a Rainy June so far. Nice !

Enjoy the Holiday. We have Labour Day on Wednesday....
Quoting RTSplayer:


In terms of track, this scenario is incredibly similar to Alex as an invest and TD, though certainly nothing like it in terms of scale at this point in the track.

This is why I think a few dozen miles change in circulation center's latitude could lead to a large swing in eventual track.

Recall Alex was about where this one's center? is, but then started hooking north as it hit Belize, and got into the BoC and went Cat 2 (cat 4 pressure) in a hurry.



Interesting.

The pattern was a lot different though, as pointed out to me by Levi yesterday (I thought the same as you). High pressure wasn't as close and the pattern was a lot more amplified.
Hope everyone is having a great evening.

I see 93L could give South Texas a little visit maybe.
the navy ain't pointing out 93L.
This is going to become helpful overnight.

SWIR Animation
Is it me or it appears that 93l is splitting.
To me, cloud movements argue that the center should be over water.

I like that lo8’s storm alert song from 2005-08 eye of the storm by Stephen Arnold catchy tune.
I give a 70% chance that recon will be out there tomorrow.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Is it me or it appears that 93l is splitting.
Um... I don't see anything splitting...
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Is it me or it appears that 93l is splitting.


Lots of dry air coming off the continent, I guess.

Unorganized systems sometimes shed outer bands and re-organize though. It can happen. The little convection burst in question has really exploded in the past hour, so it may very well be stacked right over the circulation, even though that finger of dry air from the south makes it look pretty bad.
1048. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Is it me or it appears that 93l is splitting.


Land interaction would be my guess and not splitting.

And Chicklit, is that another bow echo going across the plains?
Did a fairly recent post on the Atlantic tropics and 93L...looks like this consolidated further SW and over Honduras (I was thinking it would be over open waters instead and not develop a spin till Monday)...however it looks like at the moment its trying to regenerate a bit northward and offshore....

I really don't get how the models are shifting north. I don't know what could pull this thing as far north as south Texas with steering currents supposedly being easterly for a while (unless convection somehow magically kept staying displaced north of the center such that the center regenerated northward several times over...which can't happen)...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Um... I don't see anything splitting...
Look at the spin in Guatemala.
What is the little blue semi-circle in central Kansas expanding to the NW in the NWS radar mosaic in #1043 (Chicklit)? Thanks.
The system has fared very well through DMIN. Didn't lose as much convection as one would expect for a system as weak. Should really organize during DMAX tomorrow morning, especially considering it's offshore.

Center position:

It appears as though we have a developing low pressure system. This reminds me of TD 8/TS Harvey in 2010 due to its proximity to land. However, it still managed to make it to Tropical Storm status. 93L might be making a run for classification before landfall in Belize. Conditions appear more than favorable, especially for mid-June: dry air is not a problem up to landfall, the upper atmospheric conditions favor development, and sea surface temperatures are definitely not an issue. The only thing that may impede development is its proximity to land, and that doesn't seem to be hindering development that much at the moment.

That's my two-cents worth. :-)

(click to enlarge)
1054. Dakster
TA13 - I am thinking we really need recon out there to get us some good readings fed into the models. Then maybe we will kno what 93L will do or at least have a better grasp on what is going on.
93L/INV/XX/XX

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Did a fairly recent post on the Atlantic tropics and 93L...looks like this consolidated further SW and over Honduras (I was thinking it would be over open waters instead and not develop a spin till Monday)...however it looks like at the moment its trying to regenerate a bit northward and offshore....

I really don't get how the models are shifting north. I don't know what could pull this thing as far north as south Texas with steering currents supposedly being easterly for a while (unless convection somehow magically kept staying displaced north of the center such that the center regenerated northward several times over...which can't happen)...


Where is the high, where is the low, and where is the mid-point between them?

1018mb high over NE gulf.

1003mb low over W. central Mexico.

So the weakness is sort of W. Gulf/BoC, but the storm may be far enough south to miss it.

In general, the more they drift north, the more they will continue to do so over time.
Quoting MississippiWx:
To me, cloud movements argue that the center should be over water.



Im trying too watch the clouds under the higher blue cloud tops and I can't tell where it is! Then again I write books for a living...The Count of Monte Cristo,The Three Musketeers.......My name is Dum as
Most recent OSCAT image (30 mintues ago) doesn't show a surface circulation anywhere near where one would be. I'm not sure this is accurate though.
Edit: Ignore that, many hours old. Shows that I have some catching up to do.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The system has fared very well through DMIN. Didn't lose as much convection as one would expect for a system as weak. Should really organize during DMAX tomorrow morning, especially considering it's offshore.


Is everyone so sure the LLC is over water?
1060. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What model is the CLP5 and how accurate is it? ;)


It's the climatological model. This is the estimated track 93L would take according to the statistical analysis by this model.
1061. centex
Quoting cyclonekid:
It appears as though we have a developing low pressure system. This reminds me of TD 8/TS Harvey in 2010 due to its proximity to land. However, it still managed to make it to Tropical Storm status. 93L might be making a run for classification before landfall in Belize. Conditions appear more than favorable, especially for mid-June: dry air is not a problem up to landfall, the upper atmospheric conditions favor development, and sea surface temperatures are definitely not an issue. The only thing that may impede development is its proximity to land, and that doesn't seem to be hindering development that much at the moment.

That's my two-cents worth. :-)

(click to enlarge)
agree seems very vigorous despite factors keeping it down.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Most recent OSCAT image (30 mintues ago) doesn't show a surface circulation anywhere near where one would be.



Believe the time is the purple number at the bottom (5:47UTC).
Quoting wxchaser97:
Most recent OSCAT image (30 mintues ago) doesn't show a surface circulation anywhere near where one would be. I'm not sure this is accurate though.




Doesn't even show a wave structure...
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is everyone so sure the LLC is over water?

Doesn't get too much more clear than this.



95% sure the COC is right here, based on RGB before sunset and Shortwave after. We'll see a clear LLC in the morning on visible.
Quoting MississippiWx:
To me, cloud movements argue that the center should be over water.


Cloud movements are associated with the mid level center. Looks are deceiving, give it 24 hours and we'll see what happens.
Quoting docrod:


Hi Skye and Aussie,

I've been off line for several days after a massive lightening strike knocked out just about everything here. I felt the concussion as well as seeing the flash and hearing the boom at the same instant in time. AT&T will be at the house tomorrow to figure out wad-happened. Mysteriously my internet came back online this eve (but at dial up speeds).

I've been checking out the discussion for the first time since Thursday. My take for what it is worth ... Taz is certainly a one of a kind .... been on my ignore list more than once over the years. However, other extremely prolific commenters have also been on my ignore list with me, some of them very popular. Don't know what brought about the Taz comments but I can guess.

I appreciate your (Aussie's) nudging, and I agree (Skye) with that approach. I don't care to see any bridge being burned ever.

y'all be good - I'm busy trimming trees with a passion for this season's travails. I'm expecting a significant challenge (sigh)in the Keys this year.


Lightening can open up you connections, I have punch down blocks in my house, (I am a telephone guy, but an inside not and outside.) After a lightening strike like yours I lost my modem, but even then I could not get my service back. The lightening had opened up the connections in the punch down block and the had to be re-punched.

It does the same thing to the splices in the cable. If your cable blew a splice then there would have been a multiple, (multiple trouble reports) and that would have been located and repaired first. As DSL, or to some extent U-verse can operate across an open while the telephone cannot, you may be getting a little signal across an open in the line. (High frequencies pass a open as if it were a capacitor, the plain old telephone requires DC current and cannot get past the open.)

Be sure and test your modem at the demarcation point to isolate the problem to phone company or they may need to charge you for service call. Of course if you have in line service it is not a problem.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is the best post... let's just shift a continent so we can make sure a developing TC has "room to grow"....

We could put it back in place by Tuesday...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Believe the time is the purple number at the bottom (5:47UTC).

I hope it is, because it wouldn't make sense if it was from half an hour ago.
Even if the tropical like system does not develop before going into Central America...it will likely bring heavy rain to Central America. Here is NOAA/NESDIS Blended Total Precipitable Water loop back to Jun 7 at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/bTPW/TPW_Animation.html ?fromDate=20130607&fromHour=0&endDate=20130617&end Hour=0&product=ATLANTIC_TPW&interval=3hours . You can kind of see the origins of this wave as a surge of moisture that came off of Africa in the Jun 8 or 9 time frame and travel across the tropical Atlantic...Caribbean and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the end of the loop at 00 UTC June 17.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Cloud movements are associated with the mid level center. Looks are deceiving, give it 24 hours and we'll see what happens.


I'm aware. Just been watching it all day and it's the conclusion I've come to after viewing satellite and the limited surface obs that we have.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm aware. Just been watching it all day and it's the conclusion I've come to after viewing satellite and the limited surface obs that we have.


Fact of the matter is...

We need a recon
1074. Dakster
Quoting CosmicEvents:
We could put it back in place by Tuesday...


Sounds good! Then when Florida is under the gun can we move Florida out of the way too?
1075. pottery
Quoting Dakster:


Sounds good! Then when Florida is under the gun can we move Florida out of the way too?

Dont need to.
You have shower-curtains there.....
Quoting weatherh98:


Fact of the matter is...

We need a recon


I'm still thinking recon will be too late tomorrow. It should be moving inland or right at land by noon tomorrow at its current speed. Recon doesn't depart until 17Z.
Quoting Dakster:


Sounds good! Then when Florida is under the gun can we move Florida out of the way too?


No no no, JFV would have a fit
Quoting pottery:

Dont need to.
You have shower-curtains there.....


Live from the shower curtain?
Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm still thinking recon will be too late tomorrow. It should be moving inland or right at land by noon tomorrow at its current speed. Recon doesn't depart until 17Z.


I don't think we will see a renumber if it's debatable without a recon
Quoting Dakster:


Sounds good! Then when Florida is under the gun can we move Florida out of the way too?
There's limits, but we'll do what we can do.
.
Belize should expect a 40 to 50mph storm.
If it keeps relocating to the north, Floridacasters will be crawling out of the woodwork!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Nicaragua...that's what I meant this whole time.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Nicaragua...that's what I meant this whole time.
You asked me for Honduras I believe you mean Nicaragua as you are saying.Btw how is CR do you travel a lot to there.I have always dream to travel to the 7 countries that make CA and see their similarities and differences.
Well Gnite everyone. ..
What a good day for blogging.

I'll stop by during the week to post any graphic regarding 93l...

I spent most of the time in my blog, sometimes I don't come here in days.
My work is full time.

PLAY NICE...you know who you are!!
Quoting wxchaser97:
Most recent OSCAT image (30 mintues ago) doesn't show a surface circulation anywhere near where one would be. I'm not sure this is accurate though.

This is nearly 24 hours old.
1087. Patrap
Please dont move Florida, as we in Se Louisiana consider it our first Barrier Island.

Thanx'

Quoting MississippiWx:


Believe the time is the purple number at the bottom (5:47UTC).

Yeah now I realize that is the case, thx.
Btw it finally start raining.:D keeping my fingers closed it can continue through the night.I love rainy nights but without thunderstoms please.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doesn't get too much more clear than this.



I estimate the circulation at around 16.1N/83.5W Is that where you have TA13?
1091. gator23
Quoting Patrap:
Please dont move Florida, as we in Se Louisiana consider it our first Barrier Island.

Thanx'



Arkansas is saying the same thing about Louisiana...
Somebody get Rick Knabb on the phone and tell him to get a plane in there tonight for us! We pay taxes and we want our HH flight and we want it now!
Quoting gator23:


And North Dakota is saying the same the about Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota...
Quoting stormpetrol:


I estimate the circulation at around 16.1N/83.5W Is that where you have TA13?

Not as far east. I'd estimate it at 16.1N 84.5W.
Quoting allancalderini:
You asked me for Honduras I believe you mean Nicaragua as you are saying.Btw how is CR do you travel a lot to there.I have always dream to travel to the 7 countries that make CA and see their similarities and differences.
CR is beautiful. People who haven't been to CA thinks they are all the same. I can tell you they are all different.
1097. zampaz
Quoting Patrap:
Please dont move Florida, as we in Se Louisiana consider it our first Barrier Island.

Thanx'


"But I find this more aesthetically pleasing." She said.
Quoting CosmicEvents: #1079
There's limits, but we'll do what we can do.
.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not as far east. I'd estimate it at 16.1N 84.5W.


Well I'm 1 degree off from you so I don't consider my estimation so bad after all :)
Goodnight.
93L INVEST

Quoting eddiedollar:
CR is beautiful. People who haven't been to CA thinks they are all the same. I can tell you they are all different.
I believe you wrote you were from Roatan right? that means we live pretty close I live in La Ceiba.
Well looks like we're about to take flogging again in an hour to 2 depending, everyone have a goodnight and stay safe!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Well Gnite everyone. ..
What a good day for blogging.

I'll stop by during the week to post any graphic regarding 93l...

I spent most of the time in my blog, sometimes I don't come here in days.
My work is full time.

PLAY NICE...you know who you are!!


Be quick. 93L will be in Belize by this time tomorrow.

Night Max
So...it's only June 16 and we had Andrea and now we have a possibility (although not great) of another tropical system...and the MJO is due (maybe) at the end of the month AND 2004 is an analog year according to some. It may be time to drag out my window panels and see if they still fit (got them in 2004, Pinellas county, Fl). Looks like if won't be a boring year for hurricane aficionados.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Somebody get Rick Knabb on the phone and tell him to get a plane in there tonight for us! We pay taxes and we want our HH flight and we want it now!


Good luck with that. need to hurry or 93L will be in Belize before the HH take off.
1106. zampaz
Quoting allancalderini:
I believe you wrote you were from Roatan right? that means we live pretty close I live in La Ceiba.

Roatangardener also lives in Roatan.
Last night she was saying the cisterns were almost dry and they needed rain badly.
Say hi to her on her blog.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/roatangardener/s how.html
1107. Patrap
93L Rainbow Loop dee Loop

I think Obama shouldn't fund the rebels in Syria. Half of them are terrorists anyway.

The money would be better spent on equipment in the Gulf, Caribbean, and surrounding nations to set up better buoys, and better radar and weather station capabilities.

For example, having advanced, Dual Polarized radar in the Honduras would allow us to know exactly what's going on in this storm.
1109. Patrap
O,lordy..

for info purpose ONLY

In March 2011, the House Republicans passed a continuing resolution that included a cut of $450.3 million to the NOAA as compared to President Obama's requested budget. It also cut the National Weather Service by $126 million and reduced funding for FEMA management by $24.3 million off of the FY2010 budget, and [reduced] that appropriation by $783.3 million for FEMA state and local programs.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) also famously threatened to delay disaster relief for Hurricane Irene until certain budget cuts were put in place.
Quoting Patrap:
93L Rainbow Loop dee Loop


ye loop de loop ain't de looping sir

edit: it's working now, good job sir


NWSLubbock NWS Lubbock 3m
#lubwx Severe storm 60 miles distant across Motley County, Texas with lightning stroke.
1112. gator23
Your point is well taken but I don't think we should be building radar equipment in another country.

Quoting RTSplayer:
I think Obama shouldn't fund the rebels in Syria. Half of them are terrorists anyway.

The money would be better spent on equipment in the Gulf, Caribbean, and surrounding nations to set up better buoys, and better radar and weather station capabilities.

For example, having advanced, Dual Polarized radar in the Honduras would allow us to know exactly what's going on in this storm.
93L is looking surprisingly good, but (unless I am seeing it wrong) seems to have no model support. By the way is there any site equivalent to Allen Huffman's (but free). I usually use Moe's site at FSU, but was looking for alternative.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N84W TO 21N82W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER NOTED ON IMAGERY FROM 09N-20N
BETWEEN 77W-88W. A SEEMINGLY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE AREA
LACKS ANY DEFINED AND ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT
THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AROUND
700 MB HAS SHARPENED AND CONTINUES TO MIRROR THE WAVE AXIS
ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. REMAINING ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPTATION TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EVENTUALLY
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 78W-92W.
Quoting zampaz:

Roatangardener also lives in Roatan.
Last night she was saying the cisterns were almost dry and they needed rain badly.
Say hi to her on her blog.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/roatangardener/s how.html
Thanks :D happy to see people from my country in here.Anyways she is correct like I previously comment I feel every year it pass Honduras becomes drier and warmer.
93L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
16.10N/84.26W
Quoting Patrap:
Dats cuz your browser is a dinosaur.

: )

I'm using Google Chrome Version 27.0.1453.110 m

Google Chrome is up to date.
1119. Patrap
Quoting gator23:
Your point is well taken but I don't think we should be building radar equipment in another country.

Belize got there radar cortesy of the USA by the way Thank You for it.
1121. flsky
Before the end of the day - here is a sweet video for all the daddy's out there.
Link
Guys I'm back,I not busy with other things anymore.
1123. sar2401
Quoting satelliteman:
Even if the tropical like system does not develop before going into Central America...it will likely bring heavy rain to Central America. Here is NOAA/NESDIS Blended Total Precipitable Water loop back to Jun 7 at:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/bTPW/TPW_Animation.html ?fromDate=20130607&fromHour=0&endDate=2013 0617&end Hour=0&product=ATLANTIC_TPW&interval=3hour s . You can kind of see the origins of this wave as a surge of moisture that came off of Africa in the Jun 8 or 9 time frame and travel across the tropical Atlantic...Caribbean and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through the end of the loop at 00 UTC June 17.

Your link doesn't work. Unless you use the
"Link" feature in the text box where you type a post, the site will often insert a space, question mark, or some other special character that messes up the link.

I went to the site referenced in the link and pulled up what I believe you were looking at. I think you're confused about what the graphic shows. What appears to be a wave traveling from Africa is just precitable water that's almost always in place along the ITCZ. Sometimes there's a little less, sometimes a little more, but the PW is always there. By running 3 hour time gap loops, it appears to be moving when it's basically stationary. The moisture for 93L came from the equatorial region south of Panama. It did not travel all the way from Africa.
Quoting Patrap:
O,lordy..

for info purpose ONLY

In March 2011, the House Republicans passed a continuing resolution that included a cut of $450.3 million to the NOAA as compared to President Obama's requested budget. It also cut the National Weather Service by $126 million and reduced funding for FEMA management by $24.3 million off of the FY2010 budget, and [reduced] that appropriation by $783.3 million for FEMA state and local programs.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) also famously threatened to delay disaster relief for Hurricane Irene until certain budget cuts were put in place.


Yet we'll find a way to fund al-Qaeda linked rebels in Syria, and give them small arms.

Why American leaders think we have to choose sides on every foreign revolut and uprising baffles me. We should stay out of their business, unless it crosses borders.

the media are talking about training the rebels too. Theat implies U.S. soldiers on the ground somewhere in the region (Israel, Lebanon, or Turkey,) and that also implies we would need heavy artillery and anti-air support wherever they are stationed to protect from the Assad group using aircraft or chemical weapons on our own people. It's an idiotic move.

We should focus on our own national security and our neighbors, both in terms of Weather and military.

The correct strategy in Syria is to let both sides kill one another, and if we don't like who wins, then we take them out after they've depleted one another.

The correct fiscal policy is to invest in things which have future returns, like better forecasting and better infrastructure; Make better ports and such.
1126. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Guys I'm back,I not busy with other things anymore.

We'll notify the press. :-)
Wow....Will be interesting the position of the 93L in the initialization of the models!!!!Can't wait
The 850 MB vortics has really shifted N in the last 3 hrs
Quoting flsky:
Before the end of the day - here is a sweet video for all the daddy's out there.
Link
nice and sweet video.
1130. gator23
Your quite welcome. I wonder if it buys us any good will.

Quoting belizeit:
Belize got there radar cortesy of the USA by the way Thank You for it.
1131. beell
1132. FOREX
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wow....Will be interesting the position of the 93L in the initialization of the models!!!!Can't wait
you mean after recon?
1133. Patrap
The correct strategy in Syria is to let both sides kill one another, and if we don't like who wins, then we take them out after they've depleted one another.

Please, stick to weather...as your grasp of Politics is weak,at best.

G'night wunderland.


Closing time
Time for you to go out to the places you will be from
Closing time
This room won't be open till your brothers or your
sisters come
So gather up your jackets, move it to the exits
I hope you have found a friend
Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other
beginning's end
Quoting gator23:
Your quite welcome. I wonder if it buys us any good will.

Iguess it helps you in the drug war . to some extend.
Quoting FOREX:


No now in 00z run!!!
1136. zampaz
Quoting AussieStorm:


NWSLubbock NWS Lubbock 3m
#lubwx Severe storm 60 miles distant across Motley County, Texas with lightning stroke.

I lived in the Texas panhandle for a while.
There is nothing as breathtaking as watching the thunderstorm come in on a bright star lit night on a farm to market road.
thanks for the picture AussieStorm.
-z
1137. sar2401
Quoting Patrap:
O,lordy..

for info purpose ONLY

In March 2011, the House Republicans passed a continuing resolution that included a cut of $450.3 million to the NOAA as compared to President Obama's requested budget. It also cut the National Weather Service by $126 million and reduced funding for FEMA management by $24.3 million off of the FY2010 budget, and [reduced] that appropriation by $783.3 million for FEMA state and local programs.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) also famously threatened to delay disaster relief for Hurricane Irene until certain budget cuts were put in place.

"BoldProgressives.org"? An article from August 27, 2012? Is there a point about what's happening now that I'm missing? Don't tell me budget cuts, either, since most of those described in the article never happened.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That sounds like a very flawful technique, lol.
New word!! Goody! I plan on spreading it around...
1139. Patrap
for more info,see here

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

NOAA employees may be furloughed 4 days during the 2013 hurricane season

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:57 PM CDT on April 15, 2013


National Weather Service and NOAA employees may be forced to take up to four unpaid days off this summer, thanks to the the government-wide sequestration cuts which have forced an 8.2% budget cut. NOAA has attempted to respond to the mandatory budget cuts by freezing hiring and cutting back on staff travel and training. However, this has not been enough. In an email sent to all NOAA employees on April 15, Kathryn Sullivan, acting NOAA administrator, said: "We are entering into national consultations with the labor unions that represent some of the NOAA workforce regarding implementation of up to four days of furlough for each NOAA employee before September 30, 2013." The proposed furlough days are July 5, July 19, August 5, and August 30. NOAA employees working at 24/7 operational forecast offices at NWS and the National Hurricane Center would presumably not be furloughed on these days, if there were a major severe weather event occurring. However, I have great concerns that the furlough could cause confusion that would adversely affect critical forecasts and warnings. All of these days fall during hurricane season. The day of greatest concern to me is August 30, which falls during the height of hurricane season (recall that Hurricane Katrina hit the coast on August 29, 2005.) I'm sure that NOAA would do their best to ensure that the furlough would not interfere with critical operations during a landfalling hurricane situation, but would their best be good enough? These are uncharted waters, and its best not to be messing with nation's hurricane warning system during the peak part of hurricane season. In an interview with the Washington Post, Richard Hirn, general counsel for the National Weather Service’s labor union, the National Weather Service Employees Organization, said: “NOAA’s plans to furlough operational employees at the National Weather Service as we enter the severe storm and hurricane season is unnecessary and places the public at great risk." Here is the email sent by Sullivan to NOAA employees today:


Ciao'
I like the GFS track in this run!!!AT 15 hours

I'm going to go out on a limb (not too big of a limb though, maybe a tiny branch) and say that a tropical depression is forming off the northern coast of Honduras, based on recent microwave images and satellite loops.


93L has a long tail...
What is with the 18z run Levi.

Good Divergence

Vorticity (850mb) seems more inland

But the vorticity agrees with the convergence, so slightly decoupled, but looking pretty good
Quoting sar2401:

"BoldProgressives.org"? An article from August 27, 2012? Is there a point about what's happening now that I'm missing? Don't tell me budget cuts, either, since most of those described in the article never happened.


Maybe this is related to the comment about building radars for countries outside USA?

If USA considers cutting the budget for their own weather agency, the idea of funding more radars (for weather monitoring purposes) in other countries seems very unlikely
Quoting Patrap:
The correct strategy in Syria is to let both sides kill one another, and if we don't like who wins, then we take them out after they've depleted one another.

Please, stick to weather...as your grasp of Politics is weak,at best.

G'night wunderland.


Closing time
Time for you to go out to the places you will be from
Closing time
This room won't be open till your brothers or your
sisters come
So gather up your jackets, move it to the exits
I hope you have found a friend
Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other
beginning's end


Politics is the problem, and my grasp is just fine. Whatever is rational, whatever would work best, expect the opposite. That's politics.

Who here thinks that a special tropical disturbance statement could be sent out by the NHC at some point during the morning on Monday? I think a tropical depression could be forming based on the satellite representation of 93L.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wow....Will be interesting the position of the 93L in the initialization of the models!!!!Can't wait


Not if the NHC still has it over land.
Quoting RTSplayer:
I think Obama shouldn't fund the rebels in Syria. Half of them are terrorists anyway.

The money would be better spent on equipment in the Gulf, Caribbean, and surrounding nations to set up better buoys, and better radar and weather station capabilities.

For example, having advanced, Dual Polarized radar in the Honduras would allow us to know exactly what's going on in this storm.



Syria is a yawner for most Americans. This is a huge Russia/Shiite Western/Sunni proxy war now. Iran and Saudi Arabia are essentially at war with one another and Iraq is 100% aligned with Iran. This is already having spillover effects in very major ways. The suffering is horrible and is a forgotten story in the mainstream media. This could and most likely will cause a larger regional war that will include Saudi Arabia/Egypt vs Iraq and Iran with all others in the region joining too based on Shiite or Sunni ideology. This is the biggest risk to another large war since Vietnam. We are already providing weapons from decades ago through our Middle Eastern allies and CIA and intelligent officers have been providing training and logistics. There are few good options left and the opposition is too fundamentally driven with extremists for the U.S to arm but a small fragment of the opposition. This will happen, with a few members of the EU doing the same; including the Brits. Like WWI came out of seemingly nowhere, this could become more regional very very easily and have far reaching consequences. Two million displaced in Syria and now over 100,000 killed. That number is believed to be very conservative.
Way better run for the GFS in 00z....
Quoting lobdelse81:
Who here thinks that a special tropical disturbance statement could be sent out by the NHC at some point during the morning on Monday? I think a tropical depression could be forming based on the satellite representation of 93L.


I would say afternoon/evening more likely. But I think it will become at TD or TS in the next couple of days
Quoting Patrap:
The correct strategy in Syria is to let both sides kill one another, and if we don't like who wins, then we take them out after they've depleted one another.

Please, stick to weather...as your grasp of Politics is weak,at best.

G'night wunderland.


Closing time
Time for you to go out to the places you will be from
Closing time
This room won't be open till your brothers or your
sisters come
So gather up your jackets, move it to the exits
I hope you have found a friend
Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other
beginning's end
Bravo!
1153. Patrap


Sheesh, G'night





With the sparsity of surface observations and mid to upper level cloud coverage on satellite, it is impossible to pinpoint the center of circulation. In fact, there may not be a center of circulation but rather only a point of maximum vorticity. It's hard to say for certain. We do have one station in Honduras which has shown a wind shift from WSW, SSW, to now S. This would suggest a closed or nearly closed circulation over Honduras, as the NHC has positioned it. However, these winds may be a result of local condition and topography. For now, I do not think we have a closed circulation, if we do it is a very very weak closure.




Looking forward with time, strong convection which has formed along the convergent boundary extending to the SE will favor the COC over water, regardless of where it is now. Upper level conditions are quite favorable aloft which will allow for continued convective activity. Biggest problem will be time. Recon is scheduled to check it out tomorrow afternoon, hopefully before it makes landfall. Looks like we could have Barry before it heads inland over the Yucatan.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Not if the NHC still has it over land.

Yes,we are going to wait until tomorrow morning but at least the GFS made a good run in 00z,I expect that 93L gain a little more latitude though
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1140 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

GAZ022-023-025-032>035-043>045-170445-
1140 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN IN BARROW...COBB...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FORSYTH...GWINN ETT...
HALL...JACKSON AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM COAL MOUNTAIN TO CHAPEL HILL...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
BARROW...COBB...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FORSYTH...GWIN NETT...HALL...
JACKSON AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DUNWOODY...JOHNS CREEK...MILTON...
SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...DOUGLASVILLE...
LITHIA SPRINGS...MOUNT BETHEL...DOBBINS AIR RESERVE BASE...
VININGS...MABLETON...AUSTELL...SMYRNA AND BROOKWOOD. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8487 3402 8443 3429 8418 3424 8353
3394 8369 3390 8376 3393 8380 3379 8398
3364 8425 3365 8446 3361 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 274DEG 26KT 3424 8408 3397 8419
3370 8477

$$
1157. zampaz
Quoting Patrap:


Sheesh, G'night




Goodnight.
Quoting Patrap:
for more info,see here

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

NOAA employees may be furloughed 4 days during the 2013 hurricane season

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:57 PM CDT on April 15, 2013


National Weather Service and NOAA employees may be forced to take up to four unpaid days off this summer, thanks to the the government-wide sequestration cuts which have forced an 8.2% budget cut. NOAA has attempted to respond to the mandatory budget cuts by freezing hiring and cutting back on staff travel and training. However, this has not been enough. In an email sent to all NOAA employees on April 15, Kathryn Sullivan, acting NOAA administrator, said: "We are entering into national consultations with the labor unions that represent some of the NOAA workforce regarding implementation of up to four days of furlough for each NOAA employee before September 30, 2013." The proposed furlough days are July 5, July 19, August 5, and August 30. NOAA employees working at 24/7 operational forecast offices at NWS and the National Hurricane Center would presumably not be furloughed on these days, if there were a major severe weather event occurring. However, I have great concerns that the furlough could cause confusion that would adversely affect critical forecasts and warnings. All of these days fall during hurricane season. The day of greatest concern to me is August 30, which falls during the height of hurricane season (recall that Hurricane Katrina hit the coast on August 29, 2005.) I'm sure that NOAA would do their best to ensure that the furlough would not interfere with critical operations during a landfalling hurricane situation, but would their best be good enough? These are uncharted waters, and its best not to be messing with nation's hurricane warning system during the peak part of hurricane season. In an interview with the Washington Post, Richard Hirn, general counsel for the National Weather Service’s labor union, the National Weather Service Employees Organization, said: “NOAA’s plans to furlough operational employees at the National Weather Service as we enter the severe storm and hurricane season is unnecessary and places the public at great risk." Here is the email sent by Sullivan to NOAA employees today:


Ciao'
They just announced that no one needed to be furloughed a few weeks or so ago.
Quoting stormchaser19:
I like the GFS track in this run!!!AT 15 hours



Is there any change from the run 24 hours ago pertaining to the High pressure to the north and the Bermuda/Azores High? If you have that info at your grasp?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
They just announced that no one needed to be furloughed a few weeks or so ago.

Yep..Those tornadoes made them rethink that.
Quoting TomTaylor:


With the sparsity of surface observations and mid to upper level cloud coverage on satellite, it is impossible to pinpoint the center of circulation. In fact, there may not be a center of circulation but rather only a point of maximum vorticity. It's hard to say for certain. We do have one station in Honduras which has shown a wind shift from WSW, SSW, to now S. This would suggest a closed or nearly closed circulation over Honduras, as the NHC has positioned it. However, these winds may be a result of local condition and topography. For now, I do not think we have a closed circulation, if we do it is a very very weak closure.




Looking forward with time, strong convection which has formed along the convergent boundary extending to the SE will favor the COC over water, regardless of where it is now. Upper level conditions are quite favorable aloft which will allow for continued convective activity. Biggest problem will be time. Recon is scheduled to check it out tomorrow afternoon, hopefully before it makes landfall. Looks like we could have Barry before it heads inland over the Yucatan.

Yeah...hopefully recon arrive on time, will be crucial
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to go out on a limb (not too big of a limb though, maybe a tiny branch) and say that a tropical depression is forming off the northern coast of Honduras, based on recent microwave images and satellite loops.


Has anyone told you that you are one smart feller? Good Job!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Has anyone told you that you are one smart feller? Good Job!
Am I smart too.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is there any change from the run 24 hours ago pertaining to the High pressure to the north and the Bermuda/Azores High? If you have that info at your grasp?


In levi's site you can check previous runs...
Link
1166. zampaz
99W is gone. 93W is new

93W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to go out on a limb (not too big of a limb though, maybe a tiny branch) and say that a tropical depression is forming off the northern coast of Honduras, based on recent microwave images and satellite loops.

Does Honduras have Radar?
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMONG
11:00 AM PhST June 17 2013
==========================

Tropical Depression "EMONG" has maintained its strength while still over the east Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Emong (1000 hPa) located at 13.8N 127.0E or 280 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy).

Tropical Depression "EMONG" is still far to directly affect any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

"EMONG" is likely to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
1170. sar2401
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


Maybe this is related to the comment about building radars for countries outside USA?

If USA considers cutting the budget for their own weather agency, the idea of funding more radars (for weather monitoring purposes) in other countries seems very unlikely

Did you read the article? It make no mention of radar or doing anything outside the country. The article was a hit piece on Republicans and the budget from a year ago. A typical quote -"Demonizing the government’s ability to assist ordinary Americans has become a sport for the Republican Party in recent years.". He then has the nerve to tell another poster "Please, stick to weather...as your grasp of Politics is weak,at best."? If, in fact, the article contained factual information, he could have gotten it from at least a nominally unbiased source. The article contains half-truths and distortions written to make one party look bad. Neither the article nor his comments should have been here.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to go out on a limb (not too big of a limb though, maybe a tiny branch) and say that a tropical depression is forming off the northern coast of Honduras, based on recent microwave images and satellite loops.


I disagree. No Honduras station is reporting low pressures or strong winds. Also Buoy 42056 is reporting moderate winds, 29.96" pressure with no falling tendency and seas under 5 feet, indicating no strong windfield nearby. I think the satellite pics look very good but that it is for now a mid level disturbance.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
Am I smart too.


Yes you are....in fact most are in here....Im near the back of the pack trying to gain ground.
1173. zampaz
Quoting Skyepony:
99W is gone. 93W is new

93W

Quoting AussieStorm:

Does Honduras have Radar?


No, but the Belize radar shows parts of Honduras:

1175. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Yes you are....in fact most are in here....Im near the back of the pack trying to gain ground.


You don't give yourself enough credit. I have read you posts and you are one smart feller.
Quoting TomTaylor:


With the sparsity of surface observations and mid to upper level cloud coverage on satellite, it is impossible to pinpoint the center of circulation. In fact, there may not be a center of circulation but rather only a point of maximum vorticity. It's hard to say for certain. We do have one station in Honduras which has shown a wind shift from WSW, SSW, to now S. This would suggest a closed or nearly closed circulation over Honduras, as the NHC has positioned it. However, these winds may be a result of local condition and topography. For now, I do not think we have a closed circulation, if we do it is a very very weak closure.




Looking forward with time, strong convection which has formed along the convergent boundary extending to the SE will favor the COC over water, regardless of where it is now. Upper level conditions are quite favorable aloft which will allow for continued convective activity. Biggest problem will be time. Recon is scheduled to check it out tomorrow afternoon, hopefully before it makes landfall. Looks like we could have Barry before it heads inland over the Yucatan.


Thanks Tom...you always back up your statements with facts...good job...keep it up...maybe some will sink into my old brain.

Are ya home for a couple months? If ya are have a good summer break. Was your first year at UCSB a tough one?
My wife just set down a hot pastrami sandwich for me...Gonna take a break and watch a crimmy. Keep up all the good work...BBL
1179. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:

Does Honduras have Radar?

Not as of 2010, when I was last there. The air force has weather radars at Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, but neither are available on the web. The only public radar with partial coverage is from Belize. It covers the extreme north and northwest parts of Honduras.

EDIT: Sorry, civicane, looks like you and I were posting at the same time.
Quoting stormchaser19:


In levi's site you can check previous runs...
Link


Thanks!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I disagree. No Honduras station is reporting low pressures or strong winds. Also Buoy 42056 is reporting moderate winds, 29.96" pressure with no falling tendency and seas under 5 feet, indicating no strong windfield nearby. I think the satellite pics look very good but that it is for now a mid level disturbance.

The strongest winds are in the band northeast of the center. Gusts, reportedly, topped 50 mph in the Caymans earlier. As far as pressure is concerned, they are quite high, but this system has a small circulation. There was a 1008 millibar reading overland earlier this afternoon; I'd assume it's fallen below that or is very near that now.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Has anyone told you that you are one smart feller? Good Job!

Yeah, I get that a lot, though I'm not sure why lol.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Does Honduras have Radar?

Unfortunately not. Belize [Honduras] does though, so we should be able to get a good look at the system's structure as it approaches landfall tomorrow.
Quoting Dakster:


You don't give yourself enough credit. I have read you posts and you are one smart feller.


nice of you to say...thanks
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The strongest winds are in the band northeast of the center. Gusts, reportedly, topped 50 mph in the Caymans earlier. As far as pressure is concerned, they are quite high, but this system has a small circulation. There was a 1008 millibar reading overland earlier this afternoon; I'd assume it's fallen below that or is very near that now.


Yeah, I get that a lot, though I'm not sure why lol.
Unfortunately not. Belize [Honduras] does though, so we should be able to get a good look at the system's structure as it approaches landfall tomorrow.


You're very knowledgeable but I'm sticking to my story. I looked at 42057 and see an east wind indicating lower pressure to the south but not to the west. And no strong winds or high seas either. We'll see what happens. I think this is just an unusually well defined mid level circulation for now.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


nice of you to say...thanks
thanks,you smart too.
Quoting Skyepony:
99W is gone. 93W is new

93W


93W looks better than 91W which has been designated a TD by PAGASA and JMA.

Quote post 1170:

Forgive me Sar2401 as I was not very clear,

I believe Patrap's post was a response to a fellow blogger's statement about The US funding radar installation for weather monitoring purposes in other countries, which is why I thought the article in the post argues how unlikely that statement was.

And yes, I did notice the political bias.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


You're very knowledgeable but I'm sticking to my story. I looked at 42057 and see an east wind indicating lower pressure to the south but not to the west. And no strong winds or high seas either. We'll see what happens. I think this is just an unusually well defined mid level circulation for now.

Perhaps if that buoy was located south of the center it would mean the center is disorganized and open. But it's well to the east. Not really helpful for anything.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The strongest winds are in the band northeast of the center. Gusts, reportedly, topped 50 mph in the Caymans earlier. As far as pressure is concerned, they are quite high, but this system has a small circulation. There was a 1008 millibar reading overland earlier this afternoon; I'd assume it's fallen below that or is very near that now.


Yeah, I get that a lot, though I'm not sure why lol.
Unfortunately not. Belize [Honduras] does though, so we should be able to get a good look at the system's structure as it approaches landfall tomorrow.
yeah u talking about this
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps if that buoy was located south of the center it would mean the center is disorganized and open. But it's well to the east. Not really helpful for anything.


Then if it's not organized it's not a depression :)
Quoting Civicane49:


No, but the Belize radar shows parts of Honduras:


Yeah, i knew Belize had one, wasn;t sure about Honduras though
Quoting AussieStorm:

Does Honduras have Radar?
Would be helpful if Honduras and Nicaragua can get radars in the future.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Then if it's not organized it's not a depression :)

That was if the buoy happened to be located to the south of the center. It's not. I stand by my original statement. ;)
Wind really has picked up here in Roatan. Raining steady for about an hour.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I disagree. No Honduras station is reporting low pressures or strong winds. Also Buoy 42056 is reporting moderate winds, 29.96" pressure with no falling tendency and seas under 5 feet, indicating no strong windfield nearby. I think the satellite pics look very good but that it is for now a mid level disturbance.
Wind speed doesn't really matter for a tropical depression. All we need is a closed circulation.
1195. zampaz
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMONG
11:00 AM PhST June 17 2013
==========================

Tropical Depression "EMONG" has maintained its strength while still over the east Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Emong (1000 hPa) located at 13.8N 127.0E or 280 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy).

Tropical Depression "EMONG" is still far to directly affect any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

"EMONG" is likely to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.


I'm going to have to agree with the NHC that 93L's center is inland over Honduras near where the NHC pinpoints it. It is still disorganized and still needs to get its act together in order to be declared a tropical cyclone. Running out of water. Though it has nice structure, it's looking more and more likely that we will have to wait for it to emerge over the extreme southern gulf before we can determine if we'll get a storm out it.
Quoting Patrap:
O,lordy..

for info purpose ONLY

In March 2011, the House Republicans passed a continuing resolution that included a cut of $450.3 million to the NOAA as compared to President Obama's requested budget. It also cut the National Weather Service by $126 million and reduced funding for FEMA management by $24.3 million off of the FY2010 budget, and [reduced] that appropriation by $783.3 million for FEMA state and local programs.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) also famously threatened to delay disaster relief for Hurricane Irene until certain budget cuts were put in place.


1198. sar2401
Quoting eddiedollar:
Wind really has picked up here in Roatan. Raining steady for about an hour.

Eddie, can you give us a wind direction and approximate speed? Thanks.


My area "COULD" get a little wetter in the second part of the week.
1201. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I'm going to have to agree with the NHC that 93L's center is inland over Honduras near where the NHC pinpoints it. It is still disorganized and still needs to get its act together in order to be declared a tropical cyclone. Running out of water. Though it has nice structure, it's looking more and more likely that we will have to wait for it to emerge over the extreme southern gulf before we can determine if we'll get a storm out it.

The area that the NHC is pinpointing is all coastal plains and mangrove swamps. Lots of mangrove swamps. It may be over "land" in terms of geography but there's a lot of water in that land. :-)
1202. sar2401
Quoting CaribBoy:


My area "COULD" get a little wetter in the second part of the week.

Looks like St Martin may actually have a chance of decent rain. Maybe it will help clear up those dusty skies for a few days anyway.
1203. vis0
Quoting MississippiWx:
WHY DOES THE NASA SATELLITE PAGE NEVER WORK WHEN WE NEED IT TO WORK?! GAH.

Sorry, just frustrated since it could provide faster satellite updates. All I can get is an image, no loop.



maybe ads would help...


...nah (~24hr every 50'' cap)

On the serious side, as to ml-d (see my blog for ml-d info). If 93L blob blows up with more of its clouds are FIRST under the ml-d AOI & with either a deeper TD vertical rotation or TS horizontal rotation then a more northward trijectory means the U.S. Gulf coast has to watch.
Quoting sar2401:

Looks like St Martin may actually have a chance of decent rain. Maybe it will help clear up those dusty skies for a few days anyway.


The dust was extremely dense today!

Oh yes my fingers are crossed for the possible coming rains :))
Brown keeps it at 30% yet again and says there are no signs of a surface circulation.

Respectfully disagree completely.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Brown keeps it at 30% yet again and says there are no signs of a surface circulation.

Respectfully disagree completely.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


I done tole you it was midlevel! Got the NHC on my side too :P
1207. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
Would be helpful if Honduras and Nicaragua can get radars in the future.

Allan, Honduras does have radar. I had a chance to eyeball the radar installation in Tegucigalpa on my last trip. One of the other guys on the trip is retired Air Force and helped install the radar at the FAH base next to the airport. The radar itself is on top of La Mole peak. The US paid for the radar as well as giving the FAH 10 Bell 412 helicopters and 12 armed Tucano trainers, all to fight "The War on Drugs". The radar is state of the art and is used to monitor Honduran air space for narco planes. It's also a good weather radar. Unfortunately, the FAH consideres the radar top secret, and doesn't share any of the weather information with the public. Their excuse when I was there was that the narcos would use the weather information to plan drug flights.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I done tole you it was midlevel! Got the NHC on my side too :P

The NHC also said the circulation was over land earlier. ;)

We'll see in the morning. I've never been fond of Brown, specialist at the NHC or not. We disagree a lot lol.
Quoting sar2401:

Allan, Honduras does have radar. I had a chance to eyeball the radar installation in Tegucigalpa on my last trip. One of the other guys on the trip is retired Air Force and helped install the radar at the FAH base next to the airport. The radar itself is on top of La Mole peak. The US paid for the radar as well as giving the FAH 10 Bell 412 helicopters and 12 armed Tucano trainers, all to fight "The War on Drugs". The radar is state of the art and is used to monitor Honduran air space for narco planes. It's also a good weather radar. Unfortunately, the FAH consideres the radar top secret, and doesn't share any of the weather information with the public. Their excuse when I was there was that the narcos would use the weather information to plan drug flights.
Narcotrafficking has really ramp up this past years now 11 of the 18 departments have fall in the hands of them but I know this might sound weird that even in some people protect them as they give them food to them its really one of our biggest issue and its not only Honduras,Guatemala and El Salvador and maybe even Nicaragua have also fallen in the hands of narcotrafficking.Btw it has start to rain hard which is good :P.
1210. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Brown keeps it at 30% yet again and says there are no signs of a surface circulation.

Respectfully disagree completely.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND
OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

What? The TWO says 2:00 am EDT. Is the NHC running on a different version time than me? My clock says it's 1:14 am EDT now....
Quoting sar2401:

What? The TWO says 2:00 am EDT. Is the NHC running on a different version time than me? My clock says it's 1:14 am EDT now....

Sometimes they release the TWO early. This one was probably automated with subtle tidbits added in.
1212. sar2401
Quoting vis0:


maybe ads would help...


...nah (~24hr every 50'' cap)

On the serious side, as to ml-d (see my blog for ml-d info). If 93L blob blows up with more of its clouds are FIRST under the ml-d AOI & with either a deeper TD vertical rotation or TS horizontal rotation then a more northward trijectory means the U.S. Gulf coast has to watch.

I kind of like the idea. Juat do it like YouTube..."Your video will start in 15 seconds". That's one way to close the budget gap. :-)
1213. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sometimes they release the TWO early. This one was probably automated with subtle tidbits added in.

Sometimes they release the TWO early? As in, I'd rather not work tonight, so I decided to leave an hour early...or what? Does anyone at the NHC think no one will see that time and think something is weird?
1214. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
Narcotrafficking has really ramp up this past years now 11 of the 18 departments have fall in the hands of them but I know this might sound weird that even in some people protect them as they give them food to them its really one of our biggest issue and its not only Honduras,Guatemala and El Salvador and maybe even Nicaragua have also fallen in the hands of narcotrafficking.Btw it has start to rain hard which is good :P.

I know what you mean. I have no idea who the governor of Olancho state is, but I know for sure who the peple think he is. He rides around in a black armored Chevy Tahoe, followed by two pickups full of guys with automatic weapons. I actually thought it was the "real" governor until one of the locals told me it was "El Jefe", who does hand out food and clothing to the poor. You can't win a war when the enemy runs the place. :-(
Quoting sar2401:

Sometimes they release the TWO early? As in, I'd rather not work tonight, so I decided to leave an hour early...or what? Does anyone at the NHC think no one will see that time and think something is weird?

As far as I'm aware, the NHC is able to issue the TWOs out as early as an hour before the set time. Maybe longer. I don't know.
1216. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As far as I'm aware, the NHC is able to issue the TWOs out as early as an hour before the set time. Maybe longer. I don't know.

Now I see five out of the six models initialized at 2:00 am EDT also. This is a strange way to run a railroad.
First candidate to a M.Hurricane in east Pacific!!!
1218. Dakster
I'm just down the street from the NHC in Miami... Want me to go over there and ask them what the heck is going on? Why did they release an early TWO on a system with a 30% chance of developing?
Quoting stormchaser19:
First candidate to a M.Hurricane on east Pacific!!!


Looks like we could have Cosme in the eastern Pacific by mid to late next week. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all hinting this potential development. Seems reasonable to me given the fact that the upward MJO pulse is expected to be in the eastern Pacific basin by that time.




1220. sar2401
Quoting stormchaser19:
First candidate to a M.Hurricane on east Pacific!!!

Assuming that low will be that deep and in that position eight days from now, of course.
1221. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:
I'm just down the street from the NHC in Miami... Want me to go over there and ask them what the heck is going on? Why did they release an early TWO on a system with a 30% chance of developing?

Darn right! Go knock on the door, wake them up, and tell them we want answers...now! :-)

EDIT: I promise I'll bring you bail money when the NOAA cops arrest you...probably.
1222. Dakster
Quoting sar2401:

Darn right! Go knock on the door, wake them up, and tell them we want answers...now! :-)

EDIT: I promise I'll bring you bail money when the NOAA cops arrest you...probably.


Probably no one in the building, Brown sends the update in from his bedroom laptop...

1223. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


Probably no one in the building, Brown sends the update in from his bedroom laptop...


That's my guess too, the lazy bum. :-)
Quoting sar2401:

That's my guess too, the lazy bum. :-)


Give me the job, just copy and paste, right?
How hard can that be?
Quoting Civicane49:


Looks like we could have Cosme in the eastern Pacific by mid to late next week. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all hinting this potential development. Seems reasonable to me given the fact that the upward MJO pulse is expected to be in the eastern Pacific basin by that time.






Good Evening mate, ECMWF still showing that. That's been my thought all alone. Can't see 93L becoming much more than just an Invest.
Quoting sar2401:

Darn right! Go knock on the door, wake them up, and tell them we want answers...now! :-)

EDIT: I promise I'll bring you bail money when the NOAA cops arrest you...probably.


Would they get to the front door to even to knock?
1227. sar2401
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
Quote post 1170:

Forgive me Sar2401 as I was not very clear,

I believe Patrap's post was a response to a fellow blogger's statement about The US funding radar installation for weather monitoring purposes in other countries, which is why I thought the article in the post argues how unlikely that statement was.

And yes, I did notice the political bias.

And it's still political spin. The OP mentioned radar only in relation to the US Government giving money and arms to Syrian rebels/freedom fighters...take your choice. The article is a year old and has no relation to what really happened. From NOAA's own FY 2014, 172 page budget request:

For Fiscal Year (FY) 2014, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) proposes a budget of $5,447.7 million, an increase of $541 million, or 11 percent above the FY 2012 Spend Plan.

NOAA was given an increase of $341 million in FY 2014 budget (which begins July 1, 2013). Their budget was cut only if you say they didn't get all they asked for. No one, either in government or private business, ever gets all they ask for in a budget request. They still got an almost 8% increase in budget, which is a lot more than most folks I know got in their pay envelope.

Read NOAA chief Kathy Sullivan's two page introduction to the budget here. See if you believe NOAA should be performing all the roles outlined by her, including "support (of)
vibrant coastal communities and economies." There's fat in every budget and NOAA, even if we like them, is not any different.


blow up over Roatan...
Quoting AussieStorm:


Good Evening mate, ECMWF still showing that. That's been my thought all alone. Can't see 93L becoming much more than just an Invest.


Evening, Aussie. Yeah, the Euro is not showing much of 93L.
1230. zampaz
Quoting AussieStorm:


Give me the job, just copy and paste, right?
How hard can that be?

I can copy and paste!
When it comes to participating in weather discussions,
pasting stuff is about all I'm useful for at the moment.
But I'm learning :)
Besides we all know the meteorologists are busy at work right now coloring in all of tomorrows images with crayolas and markers.
Which is something cool to think about; how far we have come with technology in the last fifty years.
-z
Belize Tropical Weather Outlook

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE(30%) OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-ELSEWHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. SOME SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER MOST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE SEVERE AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS QUITE HIGH FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS!
Winds:
EAST TO NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

Forecast Discussion

DATE: SUNDAY 16TH JUNE (EVENING)
WX CONDITIONS TODAY TURNED OUT CLOUDY AS SEVERAL SHWRS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED AOVER SRN, CNTRL AND COASTAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
SATPIX IMAGERY (VIS) RESOLVED AN EXTENSIVE MASS OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROTATING TOWARDS BZE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN. THE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS SHOWED A CLEAR CYCLONIC ROTATION AS THE CONVECTIVE CELLS SPUN WEST AND NW. BZE RADAR SHOWED WELL THE EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS WHICH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERED SRN AND CNTRL BZE. SHWRS WERE ORGANIZED IN LINES OVER NRN AND COASTAL BZE. SEVERAL LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE WERE HEADING OUR WAY WITH FORWARD SPEEDS IN THE VCNTY OF 25MPH. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWED BZE AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN UNDER A VERY MOIST CANOPY.DRY AIR WAS CONFINED TO THE CNTRL AND SRN GULFOMEX AND PORTIONS OF SRN MEXICO.
SFC ANALYSIS FOR 16-18Z IDENTIFIED THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 82-84W FROM 21N TO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. RDIGING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVEAXIS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN.A 1019hPa SFC HIGH WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE FLORIDA COAST.
GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 12Z DATA SUGGESTS THE NE'LY FLOW BLOWING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND BZE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS CROSSES BZE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY A VERY GOOD CYCLONIC VORTICITY SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT WILL TRACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW MORNING. A PATTERN OF WILL INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL AND COASTAL BZE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE WAVE HEADS CLOSER TO BZE. SOME MINIMAL INTENSIFICATIO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THIS FEATURE CLOSES IN ON BZE.RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE INCESSANT AND LOCALIZED FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY.
AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa). NE'LY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER BZE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) SE'LY WINDS OVER BZE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CNTR OVER SRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W.PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIVERGENT THROUGH

1232. zampaz
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


blow up over Roatan...

They need rain badly, hope it doesn't come in the form of a deluge or flooding.
-z
Does anyone notice the fairly intense derecho in Kansas and Oklahoma
1234. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


Would they get to the front door to even to knock?

Considering that NOAA actually does have a police department, and some of those officers are tasked with protection of NWS facilities, I think the chances are mighty slim.
1235. sar2401
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Does anyone notice the fairly intense derecho in Kansas and Oklahoma
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Does anyone notice the fairly intense derecho in Kansas and Oklahoma

No, but I do notice what appears to be an intense bow echo squall line right now. I haven't seen any evidence of a derecho, although that term seems to be rather elastic now. I also notice the SPC, even in their 0100 UTC update, still only has that area as "slight" risk. Seems they weren't able to get it right even while the event is in progress.


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 105 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 319...

DISCUSSION...A MATURE BOW ECHO HAS EVOLVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK WITH A FORWARD SYSTEM MOTION OF 35-40 KT.
RECENT VAD DATA FROM VANCE AFB INDICATE THAT A 50+ KT REAR INFLOW
JET IS PRESENT WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WITHIN THE INFLOW AIR MASS TO ENHANCE DEEP
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SYSTEM COLD POOL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED SEWD MOTION OF THE MCS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...MEAD
Quoting Civicane49:


That loop looks like the spin has stopped or are my eyes playing up
1240. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
Belize Tropical Weather Outlook

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE(30%) OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
-ELSEWHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

24hr Forecast:
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. SOME SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER MOST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE SEVERE AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS QUITE HIGH FOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS!
Winds:
EAST TO NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

Forecast Discussion

DATE: SUNDAY 16TH JUNE (EVENING)
WX CONDITIONS TODAY TURNED OUT CLOUDY AS SEVERAL SHWRS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED AOVER SRN, CNTRL AND COASTAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
SATPIX IMAGERY (VIS) RESOLVED AN EXTENSIVE MASS OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROTATING TOWARDS BZE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN. THE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS SHOWED A CLEAR CYCLONIC ROTATION AS THE CONVECTIVE CELLS SPUN WEST AND NW. BZE RADAR SHOWED WELL THE EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS WHICH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COVERED SRN AND CNTRL BZE. SHWRS WERE ORGANIZED IN LINES OVER NRN AND COASTAL BZE. SEVERAL LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE WERE HEADING OUR WAY WITH FORWARD SPEEDS IN THE VCNTY OF 25MPH. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWED BZE AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN UNDER A VERY MOIST CANOPY.DRY AIR WAS CONFINED TO THE CNTRL AND SRN GULFOMEX AND PORTIONS OF SRN MEXICO.
SFC ANALYSIS FOR 16-18Z IDENTIFIED THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 82-84W FROM 21N TO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. RDIGING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVEAXIS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN.A 1019hPa SFC HIGH WAS LOCATED WEST OF THE FLORIDA COAST.
GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 12Z DATA SUGGESTS THE NE'LY FLOW BLOWING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND BZE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS CROSSES BZE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY A VERY GOOD CYCLONIC VORTICITY SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT WILL TRACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW MORNING. A PATTERN OF WILL INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL AND COASTAL BZE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE WAVE HEADS CLOSER TO BZE. SOME MINIMAL INTENSIFICATIO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THIS FEATURE CLOSES IN ON BZE.RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE INCESSANT AND LOCALIZED FLOODING APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY.
AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa). NE'LY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER BZE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) SE'LY WINDS OVER BZE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CNTR OVER SRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W.PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIVERGENT THROUGH

Hmmm...seems the Belize National Meteorological Service has a little different view of things than the NHC.
Quoting zampaz:

They need rain badly, hope it doesn't come in the form of a deluge or flooding.
-z
I had been getting rain all night I am really happy right now with the outcome.
1242. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


That loop looks like the spin has stopped or are my eyes playing up

I think the spin is still there, but several large bursts of convection have taken over the picture, giving the illusion the whole thing has kind of come to grinding halt. There are several respectable convective bands headed for Belize now.
1243. zampaz
Quoting allancalderini:
I had been getting rain all night I am really happy right now with the outcome.

That is good news, I hope Roatan is getting rains too.
How are the wind speeds?
-z
1244. vis0
Thank you to the hard working men/women from which these
were produced. Photo/Image provided courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey.


Compare & SAVE
Thank you very much Sar2401 for your response :), considering how late it is over there.

Honestly, I find the budget fights that you have going on over there to be very tedious.
1246. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
I had been getting rain all night I am really happy right now with the outcome.

Looks like most of the convection is staying just offshore from you, Allan. There's a weird band of convection that has broken off from the main convective center and it's now racing south towars Panama. Not sure what's up with that.
1247. sar2401
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:
Thank you very much Sar2401 for your response :), considering how late it is over there.

Honestly, I find the budget fights that you have going on over there to be very tedious.

What country do you live in? I imagine that almost any developed coutry has some rather tedious budget fights. The USA battles, having the largest budgest in the world, are probably only more tedious because of scale.
1248. sar2401
Quoting vis0:
Thank you to the hard working men/women from which these
were produced. Photo/Image provided courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey.



Compare & SAVE







LOL. I saw that subliminal message you put in there. :-)
Quoting allancalderini:
I had been getting rain all night I am really happy right now with the outcome.
What direction is the wind Allan?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST June 17 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) near 13.9N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.7N 125.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting sar2401:

What country do you live in? I imagine that almost any developed coutry has some rather tedious budget fights. The USA battles, having the largest budgest in the world, are probably only more tedious because of scale.


I'm in Indonesia, Maritime Continent MJO Phase 4. Up till now, we are largely spared from the worst of the global economic downturn, but now there's the problem of the upcoming fuel subsidy reduction which would increase the price of gas by 30% (still relatively cheap compared with anywhere else in world though)
1255. zampaz
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
15:00 PM JST June 17 2013
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) near 13.9N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.7N 125.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines

1256. barbamz
Good morning!
As I've promised here are the latest (and my last) news of the adventurous levee operations in Germany. Seems to be successfull, fortunately. Have a great day, everybody!

Engineers sink barges to plug bust dyke
The Local, published: 17 Jun 13 08:00 CE

German civil engineers blew up three barges so they would sink and block a 90-metre hole in a dyke to hold back floodwaters from the River Elbe. The risky operation appeared to have worked.



More photos here on Spiegel English
Quoting Civicane49:


Where is the LLC( If we actually have one) at this early hour? Watching the low clouds,it appears its right on the coastline?
Im glad they got that levee break somewhat under control.
Quoting sar2401:

No, but I do notice what appears to be an intense bow echo squall line right now. I haven't seen any evidence of a derecho, although that term seems to be rather elastic now. I also notice the SPC, even in their 0100 UTC update, still only has that area as "slight" risk. Seems they weren't able to get it right even while the event is in progress.


Morning/afternoon/evening:

Line of storms woke me up bright and early this am. No derecho, a few severe thunderstorms - but only small hail and gusty winds.
Wonderfully soaking rains going on now, including portions of OK still under severe drought. Will do wonders for helping out the farmers here. Could not have asked for anything better.

93L looks nice, if it were a bit more to the east might have been something - and still has the potential for development - if it can get any LLC going. Nice anticyclonic outflow to the north, and east. Nothing established in the south or west.

At best will only obtain TD, maybe a weak TS status if it can hang out in the BOC for any length of time. Otherwise, hopefully it pushes enough moisture north and west into the central valley of Mexico to help with the severe drought they are experiencing there.

Quoting barbamz:
Good morning!
As I've promised here are the latest (and my last) news of the adventurous levee operations in Germany. Seems to be successfull, fortunately. Have a great day, everybody!

Engineers sink barges to plug bust dyke
The Local, published: 17 Jun 13 08:00 CE

German civil engineers blew up three barges so they would sink and block a 90-metre hole in a dyke to hold back floodwaters from the River Elbe. The risky operation appeared to have worked.



Good news barbmz. Looks like they are trying to blow a hole in a dike further downstream to drain the area as well. Hopefully the rains will come to an end, and things will begin drying out soon.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Where is the LLC( If we actually have one) at this early hour? Watching the low clouds,it appears its right on the coastline?
Pretty much impossible to tell right now. Clouds we are seeing on shortwave IR are not at the surface, more representative of mid-levels. In addition, we have basically no surface observations in close proximity to the western side of the storm. Most likely, whatever circulation there is it is not closed.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Pretty much impossible to tell right now. Clouds we are seeing on shortwave IR are not at the surface, more representative of mid-levels. In addition, we have basically no surface observations in close proximity to the western side of the storm. Most likely, whatever circulation there is it is not closed.


So what do you think the chances are at any further development in the BOC in a couple of days? Shear looks good (low to none), outflow looks decent. Outside chance of a low end TS? Agree that there is no LLC at the moment.
16.2N 86.3W

I don't know about last night, but it's definitely offshore now, per shortwave on floater and rgb on floater.

Dry air from land interaction is only thing keeping it un-classified now.

1266. vis0

Quoting Dakster:


Probably no one in the building, Brown sends the update in from his bedroom laptop...

In cutting back funds one of the 1st cuts was to light bulbs. So they can only see their compu'r when the press comes in for daily...hourly updates. Alls well that ends well or on the good "slide" of the 10 o'clock newz.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sometimes they release the TWO early. This one was probably automated with subtle tidbits added in.
TWO is made available on the website up to an hour before the stamp hour [i.e. 2 and 8] on a regular basis. IIRC, the TWO arriving just at the hour is usually connected to a forecast that has been more than usually challenging. If there's been little change or there is a lot of confidence in the forecast they can get products together faster.

Good morning to all, btw... gotta go in a couple minutes but wanted to see how our invest fared overnight...
1268. beell
La Ceiba Airport, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize Surface Obs/Obs History
Roatan, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Buoy 42056 (120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX).
Buoy 42057 (195 NM WSW of Negril Jamiaca).

Map Link

Perhaps some confirmation that there is not much happening at the surface yet? A NW wind at Belize.

Anyway, a few surface stations that may be useful.
Quoting sar2401:

Hmmm...seems the Belize National Meteorological Service has a little different view of things than the NHC.


Which do you agree with?
NE quadrant is building very intense convection. If we get a re-organization event it would be a totally different scenario.

Pressure is falling, even as the storm moves away.

Means we either got a re-organization going on, or the storm is intensifying overall.


Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.002N 81.501W
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2013 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (76)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F


Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2013 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (119)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
1271. Gearsts
Center over land.
1272. WxLogic
Morning...
some yrs even though conditions seems hostile and or there are marginal water temps. these cyclones can spin up easily. im fearful this could be one of those yrs
Quoting beell:
La Ceiba Airport, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize Surface Obs/Surface Obs History
Map Link

Perhaps some confirmation that there is not much happening at the surface yet? A NW wind at Belize.


If anything, the mid- upper level of circulation appears to be over Roatan. No evidence of LLC at the surface.

Roatan Weather
Click on the appropriate tab to view current conditions and 24 hour trends
Quoting daddyjames:


If anything, the mid- upper level of circulation appears to be over Roatan. No evidence of LLC at the surface.

Roatan Weather
Click on the appropriate tab to view current conditions and 24 hour trends


That's what I'm thinking as well. It's evident on satellite. At least it looks like an elongated center of circulation.

However, I will concede the possibility that what I'm looking at may just be a pocket of dry air.
Morning All. The Monsoon Trough is moving up into the wheel house. Bet we see an AOI or two before the end of the month. Azores high @ 1031mb now however, it moved Nward to a more normal location.

1278. beell
Quoting daddyjames:


If anything, the mid- upper level of circulation appears to be over Roatan. No evidence of LLC at the surface.

Roatan Weather
Click on the appropriate tab to view current conditions and 24 hour trends


Possibly the first hint of a developing/strengthing surface low may come from buoy 42056 (120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX).

Still pretty steady with an east wind for now.
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's what I'm thinking as well. It's evident on satellite. At least it looks like an elongated center of circulation.

However, I will concede the possibility that what I'm looking at may just be a pocket of dry air.


Kind of hard to discern at the moment given that the thunderstorms on both sides have there own circulation going on also.
1280. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!.............................
1281. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!.............................


Good morning. Nice forecast for the So-Cen Plains, rain in those areas where its most needed.

We'll take as much as we can before the dry part of Summer hits us
1283. SLU
Surface observations from La Ceiba confirm that the LLC is somewhere along the coast near the NHC's estimated position. There is a fairly high chance that the center could reform over water near the deep convection where the mid-level turning appears to be quite strong.

Belize Radar

Belize radar not helping much either ... RTS you beat me to it!

The tracks seem to be pushing north, looking for a COC. If this little storm gets its act together it could be bad of the GoMex. Lots of energy, lots of dry air too, something tells me the energy of the water would outweigh dry air above it.
Western convection blob is not very strong, particularly since radar only finds a few pixels worth of "strong" reflectivity.

The eastern one is far more intense on IR satellite, and has developed it's own outflow (see RGB,) which to me suggests we will see a re-organization.
1288. beell
A re-post (kept adding to it...) of a short collection of surface stations that may be useful.

La Ceiba Airport, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize Surface Obs/Obs History
Roatan, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Buoy 42056 (120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX).
Buoy 42057 (195 NM WSW of Negril Jamiaca).

Map Link
Quoting beell:
A re-post (kept adding to it...) of a short collection of surface stations that may be useful.

La Ceiba Airport, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize Surface Obs/Obs History
Roatan, Honduras Surface Obs/Obs History
Buoy 42056 (120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX).
Buoy 42057 (195 NM WSW of Negril Jamiaca).

Map Link


Seems like NWS gets no updates from Roatan overnight, and Roatan has not opened for business yet :D
Quoting mcdsara1:
The tracks seem to be pushing north, looking for a COC. If this little storm gets its act together it could be bad of the GoMex. Lots of energy, lots of dry air too, something tells me the energy of the water would outweigh dry air above it.


Ridge of High Pressure to the north will prevent this from going anywhere further North than Tampico, MEX. Have serious doubts that it will reach TD status, outside chance that it reaches TS. Heavily dependent on how far it gets into the BOC.
1291. beell
Quoting daddyjames:


Seems like NWS gets no updates from Roatan overnight, and Roatan has not opened for business yet :D


True dat. Both links-yours and mine are old. Thanks.
Good Morning Folks. Looking at the Blob, it "wants" to get into the Gulf, which is the typical June trajectory for storms forming in these parts, but two factors at the moment preventing that a) the ridge of high pressure firmly established over the Gulf and b) that high band of sheer just to the North of system which keeps sheering away at the Northern quadrant of this proto storm. We will not have a firm handle on this issue, where it might be going, until we have a TD to initialize with the models.

Looking at it this morning, I am thinking NHC is going to go up to a 40% chance.
1293. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!.............................


Good Morning Largo..
Good to see ya.. :)
if it gets into the boc it will develop not sure it will get that far north
1295. pcola57
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON TUESDAY OR THEREAFTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
1297. WxLogic
Quoting SLU:
Surface observations from La Ceiba confirm that the LLC is somewhere along the coast near the NHC's estimated position. There is a fairly high chance that the center could reform over water near the deep convection where the mid-level turning appears to be quite strong.



Can't disagree here... HWRF is giving it a small shot at becoming a minimal TS prior to a full land interaction with Belize.

93L has in my opinion 50% to 60% chance of becoming a TD/TS in 12HR to 20HR for the time being.
up to 40%
Even if it does develop, it's a Belizean landfall and then once it emerges into the BOC it's a Mexican landfall.

Good morning, WU. Some low clouds moving in as the threat of rain looms. We sure could use the moisture though so that's okay by me!!

Natalie :-)

Good morning.Oh well.It was a good system while it lasted but land will get the best of it.
good morning. currently in Roatan very overcast, blustery. winds e gusting to 25 mph. not currently raining.
1302. pcola57
Good Morning All..
81 Degrees with 82%rh and dew at 75..
Partly cloudy with winds 4mph from the West..
Some storms cruisin' the shore line this am..





1303. pcola57
BAMM still an outlier..
Showing BOC..
Slow mover..
It's possible..

Morning Washi.. :)

Quoting pcola57:
BAMM still an outlier..
Showing BOC..
Slow mover..
It's possible..

Morning Washi.. :)

Morning Pcola.Once it gets out into he BOC speed will be it's enemy.
1305. pcola57


000
ABNT20 KNHC 171139
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HONDURAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON TUESDAY OR
THEREAFTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Carl Parker says CoC is near where I suspected, by Roatin Island.

RPM model and GFS suggest it holds together with possible development in BoC eventually.
1307. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
Morning Pcola.Once it gets out into he BOC speed will be it's enemy.


Yeah you may be right there Washi..
Something to watch for now.. :)
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

I can't get no satisfaction
I can't get no satisfaction
'Cause I try and I try and I try and I try
I can't get no, I can't get no

Quoting pcola57:


Yeah you may be right there Washi..
Something to watch for now.. :)
If it slows down it might have a small chance.
Still no LLC - not even a mention of one in the Discussion. Will check back in later in the day.

You all have a great day (save me some breakfast). :D

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM
13N IN NICARAGUA TO 20N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 24N IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 83W AND BELIZE. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA.
1311. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
If it slows down it might have a small chance.


Yeah this years goofy weather may surprise many..
did you all see jb was calling for 2-3 systems before august, ouch
1313. pcola57
Quoting islander101010:
did you all see jb was calling for 2-3 systems before august, ouch


JB lives in his own little world islander..
The E-Pac and rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet at the moment so 93L is the only game in town. With no observable surface circulation and a pending interaction with land, this is a slow burner at least two days out if then......

Looks like my fishing trip next Sunday in the Northern Gulf is a go with a light chop at best.
If you're trying to find a LLC, or think there is one currently, don't hold your breath. ASCAT has been showing a cyclonic curvature of the winds but still nothing that is completely closed off yet. This is as of the 11:12UTC image.
1316. pcola57
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The E-Pac and rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet at the moment so 93L is the game in town. With no observable surface circulation and a pending interaction with land, this is a slow burner at least two days if then......

Looks like my fishing trip next Sunday in the Northern Gulf is a go with a light chop at best.


Some of my Family pulled in to my driveway yesterday afternoon with Red Snapper and a huge Trigger and asst. others..
It's happening right now out there..
(20 miles due south from the pass is where they ran into good fishing..)
Quoting pcola57:


JB lives in his own little world islander..
Well he might not be to far off.The MJO should be swinging around by the end of June.So we may see a system(s) in late June and early July.
Good Morning, all. Evening, Aussie and Good Afternoon to all across the pond.

Unexpectedly sunny here in Maine, for now. We'll take it.

Is there a site that has a list of the meanings of all the alphabet soup that gets used here? I'm pretty sure SAL isn't someone's name and COC, well, never mind, but for we who are rank newbies, it would be great to have access to a cheat sheet so we could have a better clue as to what's being discussed.

Thanks.
Quoting islander101010:
did you all see jb was calling for 2-3 systems before august, ouch


Well, Islander, I suppose technically he is correct. There will be 2 or 3 systems before August.

I'd guess quite a few more, but that's just a guess on my part.
Any other Meteorology Major's in here? Just finished my senior year in Meteorology at FSU and I'm starting to study for my Masters in the Fall.
1322. pcola57
Quoting islander44:
Good Morning, all. Evening, Aussie and Good Afternoon to all across the pond.

Unexpectedly sunny here in Maine, for now. We'll take it.

Is there a site that has a list of the meanings of all the alphabet soup that gets used here? I'm pretty sure SAL isn't someone's name and COC, well, never mind, but for we who are rank newbies, it would be great to have access to a cheat sheet so we could have a better clue as to what's being discussed.

Thanks.


Here's a searchable link..AMS
Quoting islander44:
Good Morning, all. Evening, Aussie and Good Afternoon to all across the pond.

Unexpectedly sunny here in Maine, for now. We'll take it.

Is there a site that has a list of the meanings of all the alphabet soup that gets used here? I'm pretty sure SAL isn't someone's name and COC, well, never mind, but for we who are rank newbies, it would be great to have access to a cheat sheet so we could have a better clue as to what's being discussed.

Thanks.


Not really but, I could tell you what those two are.

COC-Center of Circulation
SAL-Saharan Air Layer (African Dust and dry air that inhibits tropical cyclone formation).

-Wright
every saturday jb gives a free clip i learned alot from him when him and his deceased partner use to offer free clips. only thing i dont like about him is when he mixes politics with weather. he knows weather.
1325. pcola57
Quoting islander44:
Good Morning, all. Evening, Aussie and Good Afternoon to all across the pond.

Unexpectedly sunny here in Maine, for now. We'll take it.

Is there a site that has a list of the meanings of all the alphabet soup that gets used here? I'm pretty sure SAL isn't someone's name and COC, well, never mind, but for we who are rank newbies, it would be great to have access to a cheat sheet so we could have a better clue as to what's being discussed.

Thanks.


Here's another searchable link..NWS
Quoting presslord:

First that avatar and now this picture. Press you're killing me!!!
Whoever removed that picture THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU. Admin watching this morning. :)
AL 93 2013061712 BEST 0 160N 871W 25 1008 DB


Probably will cancel Recon since system is already where they expected to find it this afternoon, by the time they would get there it would be inland.
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
81 Degrees with 82%rh and dew at 75..
Partly cloudy with winds 4mph from the West..
Some storms cruisin' the shore line this am.


Woke up before sunrise this morning, and the lightening show to the south of me was nice. Sat on the screen porch sipping coffee while a squall rolled through that dropped about 1/3 of an inch. No need to run the sprinkler pump this morning. :)
Oh, Lord....
1332. pcola57
Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


Woke up before sunrise this morning, and the lightening show to the south of me was nice. Sat on the screen porch sipping coffee while a squall rolled through that dropped about 1/3 of an inch. No need to run the sprinkler pump this morning. :)


It's nice when you have the opportunity to enjoy it..
I'm here in Myrtle Grove and just way too many trees to see it..
Gotta love the 100yr old trees though.. :)
1333. Patrap
1334. Patrap
1335. pcola57
Quoting presslord:
Oh, Lord....


Taz will never let you live that down Press.. :)
1336. Patrap
93L Rainbow Loop

1337. VR46L
Quoting presslord:
Oh, Lord....




Janis Joplin - Mercedes Benz

Sorry I couldn't resist it....


Good Morning All
1339. VR46L
Still not on the usual Navy TC page

93L.INVEST 17 JUN 2013 1215Z


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HONDURAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE
SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON TUESDAY OR
THEREAFTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
1341. Patrap
Navy FNMOC INVEST AL93

Atlantic
93L.INVEST

Thanks again, Admin. :)
1343. Patrap
It looks like the LLC is trying to reform under the area of heavy convection. there are signs that the original centre is showing signs of weakening. LookinG at recent sat pictures,it is very apparent that low level clouds are streaming towards that area of heavy convection. should that happen then 93L will have enough time over water to be either aTD or TS at best
visually on sat photo 93 looks like a td but that can be deceiving
Makes one wonder if a new circulation doesn't try to form where the convection is well offshore
1347. Patrap
93L Unenhanced IR LOOP


Darkness, Darkness be my pillow,
Take my hand and let me sleep,
In the coolness of your shadow,
In the silence of your deep.


So far the NAM is in the lead..

93L Single Run Position Error
(in nautical miles)

Model Name 0hr
AEM2 0
AEMI 0
AVNI 0
AVNO 78.1
CMC2 0
DSHP 0
LBAR 0
LGEM 0
NAM 62.6
NAMI 0
SHIP 0
TV15 0
TVCA 0
TVCC 0
TVCE 0
TVCN 0
XTRP 0
93L, will be a tropical Depresion just before landfall in Belize, I disagree respectfully with the NHC with the 40% of chance...When the system reemerges in BoC in 24 hours, will have time enough (36-48 hours) to re-strengthened and becomes Barry..
Quoting Patrap:
93L Unenhanced IR LOOP


Darkness, Darkness be my pillow,
Take my hand and let me sleep,
In the coolness of your shadow,
In the silence of your deep.






looks like 93L is heading right for the Epac
1351. ncstorm
Good Morning all..

The Euro has some potential mischief off of SC coast..strong vorticity showing and then moving back in SC..showed this in the 12Z run but farther off the coast..this run was right at the coast..

Looks like a new "center" may be forming around 17N/83.8W, looks the original one is practically dying out
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning all..

The Euro has some potential mischief off of SC coast..strong vorticity showing and then moving back in SC..showed this in the 12Z run but farther off the coast..this run was right at the coast..






The pics do not show up :(
rain.....


This is gonna be a 10" month at this rate.



just seems to fall in N GA.... not so much in AL



1355. ncstorm
Quoting Jwd41190:


The pics do not show up :(


sigh..thats right..I have to save them down in imaging..hold up..will get them uploaded..
1356. ncstorm
Euro





Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Afternoon, Barbamz. A very nice 75 degrees with a heat index of 86. We should have rain starting tomorrow and then on and off for a couple of days. My garden will love that, as I will.

I see we have an invest that the HH are going to be looking at around noon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Omelets with mushrooms, ham and cheese, bacon, blueberry and bran muffins, toast, yogurt and fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
Any hopes of the Texas death ridge retreating north and allowing some on shore rains to develop?
1359. hydrus
Thanks for the share ncstorm that is very interesting indeed.
Quoting mcdsara1:
Any hopes of the Texas death ridge retreating north and allowing some on shore rains to develop?

IS FANTASY BUT, STAY POSITIVE!!!


Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Afternoon, Barbamz. A very nice 75 degrees with a heat index of 86. We should have rain starting tomorrow and then on and off for a couple of days. My garden will love that, as I will.

I see we have an invest that the HH are going to be looking at around noon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Omelets with mushrooms, ham and cheese, bacon, blueberry and bran muffins, toast, yogurt and fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!


I had 2 chicken sandwiches, a bowl of cereal, a bowl of spaghetti, and 4 glazed and lemon creme filled doughnuts.

And a glass of orange juice and a bottle of gatorade.

Im kinda full.... :P
Any hopes of the Texas death ridge retreating north and allowing some on shore rains to develop?
Link


Morning all. New dominant center trying to form under the convection to the northeast.

I expect this to be declared later today, if present trends continue and the recon plane finds a closed low.

As for guidance:



Not going to be much of a threat.
Morning wunderfolks, 8 am. NHC Discussion is interesting this morning.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...REACHING CENTRAL SURINAME. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W IN THE ITCZ...AND IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA.

IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST IS THAT THE WAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT EVENTUALLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...NEAR 23N65W.
Quoting boltdwright:

Any other Meteorology Major's in here? Just finished my senior year in Meteorology at FSU and I'm starting to study for my Masters in the Fall.

Mostly everybody on here is a hobbyist, but we do have some mets and university-level bloggers. I hope you will become a regular commenter/blogger.
Seems to be a fairly good chance that unless a new center forms, recon won't fly today.

System going to make it inland too quickly.


Really I think this just gives more cadence to the idea of this system potentially in-directly affecting the U.S. by possibly causing another system to form in the bay of campeche post landfall.
Quoting Chicklit:
Morning wunderfolks, 8 am. NHC Discussion is interesting this morning.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...REACHING CENTRAL SURINAME. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W IN THE ITCZ...AND IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA.

IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST IS THAT THE WAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT EVENTUALLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...NEAR 23N65W.

Mostly everybody on here is a hobbyist, but we do have some mets and university-level bloggers. I hope you will become a regular commenter/blogger.



Might wanna keep a watchful eye on that if you live in the Bahamas
Quoting mcdsara1:
Any hopes of the Texas death ridge retreating north and allowing some on shore rains to develop?


I think is impossible that 93L gives rain to Texas, but with the MJO coming ,GFS is forming a storm at 330 hours that means the GOM and Westen Carribean are going to be active in early july...a storm to texas is possible in that time frame..
1370. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I had 2 chicken sandwiches, a bowl of cereal, a bowl of spaghetti, and 4 glazed and lemon creme filled doughnuts.

And a glass of orange juice and a bottle of gatorade.

Im kinda full.... :P
Alright thats it..I had a double whey protein isolate shake ( vanilla ) with a heaping tablespoon of moringa olifeira. and two peanut butter sandwiches on honey wheat bread, glass O.J....What I really wanted was scrambled eggs with cheese, pancakes loaded with butter and real maple syrup and hash browns......I eat the other stuff because I work out and am middle aged..:)...forgive my lil rant..
Quoting mcdsara1:
Any hopes of the Texas death ridge retreating north and allowing some on shore rains to develop?


Unfortunately, at least in the short term, the Texas ridge, after showing plenty of weakness during the last week, is expected to show some backbone, particular after Wednesday, and become well established at least through the coming week-end. The forecasted strength of this ridge should keep any gulf convective development well south of Texas. Further, it is likely the stability will prevent seabreeze convection through most of the week-end, even along the shoreline.

Hi-res models are inconsistent in the short-term (i.e. today and tomorrow) so some afternoon showers can't be ruled out but that's more for central south TX, with only slight possibilities of developing further south towards the coast.

However, I'm just a met student so take above with a grain of salt. This is just my interpretation of the models and NWS forecast! :)
Good morning

93L looks to be on track to head inland fairly soon. What has really been interesting about this wave is how quickly the very high shear conditions relaxed over the system and followed it, thereby allowing it to organize over the course of the past 24 hours and while mostly over land.

Just goes to show that hostile conditions can turn reasonably favourable in a short period of time. Something to watch for this season.

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Afternoon, Barbamz. A very nice 75 degrees with a heat index of 86. We should have rain starting tomorrow and then on and off for a couple of days. My garden will love that, as I will.

I see we have an invest that the HH are going to be looking at around noon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Omelets with mushrooms, ham and cheese, bacon, blueberry and bran muffins, toast, yogurt and fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!


I had a beautiful delicious Tuna pasta bake my lovely wife made for dinner. It was so good I had 3 helpings and almost licked the dish clean.
Quoting ncstorm:
Euro







I saw that earlier today, interesting indeed.
1375. pcola57
Quoting Chicklit:


Morning Chicklit..
Shears a mess..
1376. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

93L looks to be on track to head inland fairly soon. What has really been interesting about this wave is how quickly the very high shear conditions relaxed over the system and followed it, thereby allowing it to organize over the course of the past 24 hours and while mostly over land.

Just goes to show that hostile conditions can turn reasonably favourable in a short period of time. Something to watch for this season.

Every year you do well with these predicting these systems....Have you studied Meteorology K-Man?
Quoting hydrus:
Every year you do well with these predicting these systems....Have you studied Meteorology K-Man?


Good morning to you too.

Actually a lawyer by profession but have been fascinated by tropical systems from childhood. I guess after you have seen hundreds of them you become an armchair meteorologist :-).

I learned a lot from watching some of the really great forecasters in the early days of the Weather Channel before the internet existed. Guys like John Hope didn't just give you the forecast for a system, he explained why. Two of his more well known guides were:

1. If you have a developing system in the NW Caribbean, look for a West wind in Puerto Cabezas to determine if a closed low is or has developed.

2. A wave that has not developed before entering the Eastern Caribbean is unlikely to develop before reaching the Western Caribbean.

Number 2 in particular has withstood the test of time over and over again.
Quoting DataNerd:
Seems to be a fairly good chance that unless a new center forms, recon won't fly today.

System going to make it inland too quickly.


Really I think this just gives more cadence to the idea of this system potentially in-directly affecting the U.S. by possibly causing another system to form in the bay of campeche post landfall.


The problem is that the recon is not scheduled to arrive at the storm until roughly 2000z (if I'm reading the flight plan correctly) which translates to 2400 EDT (if I'm reading the conversion chart correctly, but I've seen some conflicting info on what Zulu time represents). By midnight eastern, in another 14 whole hours, it is likely that 93L is near or over land.

Unless the new center does form underneath the MLC, it may be too late for recon to provide any useful information, so to me, it seems there is a fairly decent chance recon is cancelled.

It would have been nice if yesterday, they had flown out to 93L and found some sort of circulation, which would have initiated regular flights. Then we would have a plane inbound, outbound, or in the storm as we speak which could tell us about any possible center reformation.

As to any renumber, although I would say there is a fairly high chance that 93L is either a TD or TS by the time it reaches Belize, the NHC is clearly playing this conservatively, as evidenced by their outlandishly low TWO percentages. Unless we get a HH plane into the storm, I think the chance of getting TD2 today is very low, around 10%. However, if the NHC does observe some satellite evidence that the center has reformed to the east and north underneath the mid-level turning, we should get a flight, since this relocation would buy 93L several hours over water. If this scenario plays out, I would say there is about a 70% that it gets declared.

Also, as a point of vocabulary, I believe you mean "credence" as opposed to "cadence." Just a helpful tip :)
Quoting FIUStormChaser:



Might wanna keep a watchful eye on that if you live in the Bahamas


Am sure somebody around here has a model that will show what might happen when the wave interacts with the ULL.
1380. Grothar
It's a bust.

Quoting Grothar:
It's a bust.

lol
I have a question I would appreciate some help with. When I use Chrome and click on the quote button nothing happens. This has forced me to use IE to blog.

Is there a setting or something that I need to change ?

TIA
1383. 62901IL
Can anyone tell me if I was quoted last night? If so, can you send me the link to the comment that I was quoted on?
Quoting kmanislander:
I have a question I would appreciate some help with. When I use Chrome and click on the quote button nothing happens. This has forced me to use IE to blog.

Is there a setting or something that I need to change ?

TIA
Does the quote tab show up? If it does click it and scroll to the bottom of the page and you should see the "blockquote" in the comment section.
The steering for the wave is well established.

Quoting allancalderini:
I believe you wrote you were from Roatan right? that means we live pretty close I live in La Ceiba.
Yes living in Roatan for the past 3 years.
Recon take off is 1700Z = 1300edt = 1:00pm edt.
With regards to my earlier comment (1378), I was reading the chart incorrectly, the flight should arrive around 4:00 eastern, which kinda renders my point about flight cancellation moot.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Does the quote tab show up? If it does click it and scroll to the bottom of the page and you should see the "blockquote" in the comment section.


The tab is there. Will do as you suggest. Thanks
1390. 62901IL
You'll love this.
Link
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?

1392. 62901IL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?


The centre is over water now
Quoting hydrus:
Alright thats it..I had a double whey protein isolate shake ( vanilla ) with a heaping tablespoon of moringa olifeira. and two peanut butter sandwiches on honey wheat bread, glass O.J....What I really wanted was scrambled eggs with cheese, pancakes loaded with butter and real maple syrup and hash browns......I eat the other stuff because I work out and am middle aged..:)...forgive my lil rant..


I almost had a protein shake.... and I dont like peanut butter.

That breakfast you wanted is the best however, especially the real maple syrup.. :)

The only breakfast food I ever seem to eat for breakfast is cereal....other than that I find myself eating leftovers, or lunch/dinner foods.

I eat what I eat because I work out and am young...
I hear you can't eat like that forever :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Does the quote tab show up? If it does click it and scroll to the bottom of the page and you should see the "blockquote" in the comment section.


Great, got it. I guess with Chrome it doesn't open the box automatically.
Quoting FutureWx6221:


The problem is that the recon is not scheduled to arrive at the storm until roughly 2000z (if I'm reading the flight plan correctly) which translates to 2400 EDT (if I'm reading the conversion chart correctly, but I've seen some conflicting info on what Zulu time represents). By midnight eastern, in another 14 whole hours, it is likely that 93L is near or over land.

Unless the new center does form underneath the MLC, it may be too late for recon to provide any useful information, so to me, it seems there is a fairly decent chance recon is cancelled.

It would have been nice if yesterday, they had flown out to 93L and found some sort of circulation, which would have initiated regular flights. Then we would have a plane inbound, outbound, or in the storm as we speak which could tell us about any possible center reformation.

As to any renumber, although I would say there is a fairly high chance that 93L is either a TD or TS by the time it reaches Belize, the NHC is clearly playing this conservatively, as evidenced by their outlandishly low TWO percentages. Unless we get a HH plane into the storm, I think the chance of getting TD2 today is very low, around 10%. However, if the NHC does observe some satellite evidence that the center has reformed to the east and north underneath the mid-level turning, we should get a flight, since this relocation would buy 93L several hours over water. If this scenario plays out, I would say there is about a 70% that it gets declared.

Also, as a point of vocabulary, I believe you mean "credence" as opposed to "cadence." Just a helpful tip :)


Okay 2000Z is 1600z edt

4 hours behind not ahead

So recon would be there about 4pm edt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?



Heads up TA, this is a bit of an old loop (latest image 6:15 last night)

*edit* I wasn't fast enough in pointing it out, it's already fixed.

And thanks 1395, but see 1388
1397. 62901IL

Hey you guys! What's the weather like?
1398. 62901IL
Blog is faster this morning.
1399. SLU
Quoting FutureWx6221:


Heads up TA, this is a bit of an old loop (latest image 6:15 last night)

The latest image in the loop is 13:45 UTC, which is 9:45 am EDT.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?




Yup. First one looks much weaker now
1402. SLU
The strong trades of late have busted a huge gaping hole in the SSTs north of PR.

000
SXAK77 PAJK 171430
RERAJK

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
630 AM AKDT MON JUN 17 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET
HAINES AIRPORT 86 80 2002
*HAINES #2 86 75 2002
*HAINES CUSTOMS 83 80 2002
*SKAGWAY CUSTOMS 84 83 2002
*GUSTAVUS 85 67 2007
*HOONAH 83 68 1973
*ELFIN COVE 78 62 2006
*PELICAN 77 66 2004
*PORT ALEXANDER 80 72 1950
JUNEAU AIRPORT 85 82 1948
*JUNEAU, NWS OFFICE 81 73 2002
*JUNEAU, LENA POINT 83 73 2002
*JUNEAU, OUTER POINT 80 70 2002
*SNETTISHAM 84 76 2002
*KLAWOCK AIRPORT 87 75 2005
*CRAIG 74 66 1950
KETCHIKAN AIRPORT 85 TIED 85 1950
*KETCHIKAN 13N 82 62 2009
ANNETTE, NWS OFFICE 85 TIED 85 1969
YAKUTAT AIRPORT 81 70 1996/1966

* RECORD REPORTS FOR THESE STATIONS MAY NOT BE AS MEANINGFUL AS
THOSE FOR STATIONS WITH 30-YEAR DECADAL NORMALS (1981-2010).

KV JUN 13
Quoting kmanislander:
The steering for the wave is well established.



Hope the ridge holds strong and builds in to the west...
1405. 62901IL
Quoting canehater1:


Hope the ridge holds strong and builds in to the west...

I would LOVE to see a tropical system hit Texas.
1406. VR46L
Coordinates from 2 hours ago source Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Monday, Jun. 17, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
126 statue miles (203 km) to the SE (145°) from Belize City, Belize.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1008 mb (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa)

Coordinates:
16.0N 87.1W
Quoting FutureWx6221:


Heads up TA, this is a bit of an old loop (latest image 6:15 last night)

*edit* I wasn't fast enough in pointing it out, it's already fixed.

And thanks 1395, but see 1388



Ah I'm sorry didn't see that
Quoting 62901IL:

Hey you guys! What's the weather like?

Stick ya head out the window and have a look. That's the best way to tell.
Clouds clearing up! Shaping up to be a lovely day!!! :-)

Natalie

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m
93L staying over land w/ its impressive circulation likely spared Central Amer from a strong hurricane.
1411. 62901IL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Stick ya head out the window and have a look. That's the best way to tell.

I meant at your place.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?



The low level convergence map aligns with the 925 mb vorticity signature which I posted a short time ago and both place the low center in the Gulf of Honduras close to Belize. I do see the spin that is suggestive of a new center but that may just be the misalignment of the low and mid level centers.

We will know soon enough if a new center is forming but obs other than satellite suggest otherwise.

Still overcast here in Roatan, wind about 20-25mph with a few higher gusts. Sun popped out for a few mins then gone back in again.
Landslide in New Zealand on Monday, 17 June, 2013 at 03:21 (03:21 AM) UTC.
Description
More than 18 hours of heavy rain triggered a large landslide on the South Island of New Zealand on Sunday afternoon, destroying a house and killing one person inside, police said. Two other houses nearby were evacuated as a precaution. The incident occurred at around 1:15 p.m. local time on Sunday when a landslide, covering an area about 200 meters (218 yards) long, hit near a road near Kaiteriteri, a coastal town on the South Island of New Zealand. It happened after more than 18 hours of heavy rainfall in the region.Senior Sergeant Stu Koefoed of Nelson Police said first responders found a badly damaged house when they arrived at the scene. "One wall and the roof was all that remained of the house and neighbors were attempting to find the woman, who was the sole occupant of the house," he said. Koefoed said the body of the victim, who was identified as 63-year-old Jude Hivon, was discovered partially submerged in the mud.As a precaution, police and search-and-rescue staff evacuated two neighboring properties after the landslide, which came down behind the house that was destroyed and struck the rear of the property. "Local Civil Defence have activated and are managing road closures and monitoring river levels," Koefoed added.


Quoting SLU:
The strong trades of late have busted a huge gaping hole in the SSTs north of PR.



Yeah they have..That front was across there the last few days. That weak blob that was there up-welled a bit there yesterday.
Quoting SLU:
The strong trades of late have busted a huge gaping hole in the SSTs north of PR.




Yea it's been below average up there all year, that's not a bad thing for tropical storms especially as the MDR warms up more.

Focus's most of the storms into the more favorable tropical atlantic
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning to you too.

Actually a lawyer by profession but have been fascinated by tropical systems from childhood. I guess after you have seen hundreds of them you become an armchair meteorologist :-).

I learned a lot from watching some of the really great forecasters in the early days of the Weather Channel before the internet existed. Guys like John Hope didn't just give you the forecast for a system, he explained why. Two of his more well known guides were:

1. If you have a developing system in the NW Caribbean, look for a West wind in Puerto Cabezas to determine if a closed low is or has developed.

2. A wave that has not developed before entering the Eastern Caribbean is unlikely to develop before reaching the Western Caribbean.

Number 2 in particular has withstood the test of time over and over again.



If you're a lawyer by profession, then I have a question.

Is an classified ad in a newspaper a legally binding contract?

My position is "no" because it's still subject to negotiation.

Judge Judy ruled that an ad in a newspaper was legally binding, and held a plaintiff to the ad, verbatim, even though it was clear the plaintiff did not agree to those terms in the actual "transaction" that took place.

My reasoning was using a used car example.

Let's say the ad offers the car for $4000, but when the customer gets there, the seller decides he really needs $4500. Now let's say the buyer goes for it anyway. He offers to pay $3500 up front, and the other $1000 over the next 6 months. However, the buyer never makes another payment.

If the original owner goes to court, can they sue for only $500, or for the full $1000?

What do you say?
Hailstorm in France on Monday, 17 June, 2013 at 10:11 (10:11 AM) UTC.
Description
Paris and the Ile-de-France is under orange weather alert today as Meteo France warned that violent thunder and hail storms would batter the area. The storm is due to pass by 11.00 but Meteo France says that winds could reach 80kph and be extremely dangerous and that hailstones could reach as big as 3cm. Such hailstones could damage cars and light buildings, such as caravans and outhouses, and the weather agency also warned of a serious risk of flooding in cellars and low-lying areas. Two storms have already hit Tours this morning, with many reports of damage and pompiers involved in more than 200 incidents. Vineyard owners have reported that the hail had been very violent and had stripped leaves off their vines “as if with secateurs” one said on RTL. However, very hot weather is also on the way, with Grenoble likely to hit 36C this afternoon. Elsewhere, forecasters said that the lowest temperature in France was likely to be 18C in Brittany with 30C+ common across many parts of the country.
850 mb also deep into the GOH

Quoting hydrus:
Alright thats it..I had a double whey protein isolate shake ( vanilla ) with a heaping tablespoon of moringa olifeira. and two peanut butter sandwiches on honey wheat bread, glass O.J....What I really wanted was scrambled eggs with cheese, pancakes loaded with butter and real maple syrup and hash browns......I eat the other stuff because I work out and am middle aged..:)...forgive my lil rant..Okay guys, enough. I am at ER with sick husband. No breakfast for us!
Quoting kmanislander:


The low level convergence map aligns with the 925 mb vorticity signature which I posted a short time ago and both place the low center in the Gulf of Honduras close to Belize. I do see the spin that is suggestive of a new center but that may just be the misalignment of the low and mid level centers.

We will know soon enough if a new center is forming but obs other than satellite suggest otherwise.


It's worth noting that the maps from UW-CIMSS have gridding issues and are often off by 50 to 100 miles.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1422. VR46L
Quoting 62901IL:

I would LOVE to see a tropical system hit Texas.


You know a weak storm following the track predicted by the LBAR would be no bad thing IMO..

Quoting RTSplayer:



If you're a lawyer by profession, then I have a question.

Is an classified ad in a newspaper a legally binding contract?

My position is "no" because it's still subject to negotiation.

Judge Judy ruled that an ad in a newspaper was legally binding, and held a plaintiff to the ad, verbatim, even though it was clear the plaintiff did not agree to those terms in the actual "transaction" that took place.

My reasoning was using a used car example.

Let's say the ad offers the car for $4000, but when the customer gets there, the seller decides he really needs $4500. Now let's say the buyer goes for it anyway. He offers to pay $3500 up front, and the other $1000 over the next 6 months. However, the buyer never makes another payment.

If the original owner goes to court, can they sue for only $500, or for the full $1000?

What do you say?
Quoting RTSplayer:



If you're a lawyer by profession, then I have a question.

Is an classified ad in a newspaper a legally binding contract?

My position is "no" because it's still subject to negotiation.

Judge Judy ruled that an ad in a newspaper was legally binding, and held a plaintiff to the ad, verbatim, even though it was clear the plaintiff did not agree to those terms in the actual "transaction" that took place.

My reasoning was using a used car example.

Let's say the ad offers the car for $4000, but when the customer gets there, the seller decides he really needs $4500. Now let's say the buyer goes for it anyway. He offers to pay $3500 up front, and the other $1000 over the next 6 months. However, the buyer never makes another payment.

If the original owner goes to court, can they sue for only $500, or for the full $1000?

What do you say?



LOL. I am qualified in England, not the US so cannot comment on a US law question. I do know what the position would be in the UK and here in Cayman but I hope you will forgive me for not expressing a view on an internet forum.
I get worried here in Roatan when a storm or hurricane is on the way because the residents here make absolutely no preparations for it. This is quite different to my home island of Barbados. Where from June 1 its on the TV, newspapers, schools etc.
Now that season is here.. & this has gone from blob watching to an invest~ the blog is beginning to tighten up.. There is site mail (gray bar up top on the right) for personal discussions, you can start your own blog to hurricane party with your Wunderfriends..but the off topic isn't going to be entertained so much here forward to the end of event.. Our friends in the Caribbean are here for info now.

Quoting barbamz:


Pic of the hail balls from this storm.


That's big hail! Bigger than the 3cm that article said..though it sounds on going.
1428. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning to you too.

Actually a lawyer by profession but have been fascinated by tropical systems from childhood. I guess after you have seen hundreds of them you become an armchair meteorologist :-).

I learned a lot from watching some of the really great forecasters in the early days of the Weather Channel before the internet existed. Guys like John Hope didn't just give you the forecast for a system, he explained why. Two of his more well known guides were:

1. If you have a developing system in the NW Caribbean, look for a West wind in Puerto Cabezas to determine if a closed low is or has developed.

2. A wave that has not developed before entering the Eastern Caribbean is unlikely to develop before reaching the Western Caribbean.

Number 2 in particular has withstood the test of time over and over again.
I too remember those days. I became interested in weather after Hurricane Belle in 76. It did a considerable amount of damage in N.J where my Grandparents live on the coast, which I was there to witness as it happened. I have read up on Grady Norton , Gordon Dunn , John Hope and Robert Simpson ( who is 100 years old now ) are just some of the extraordinary tropical Mets that have a uncanny, but very talented gift for forecasting tropical cyclones.
1429. JNTenne
GOES WV Loop


1430. Fernan