WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Record heat fuels destructive fires in drought-baked Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2013

Destructive wildfires erupted in three locations in drought-baked Colorado on Tuesday, fanned by strong winds and the hottest temperatures ever recorded in the state so early in the year. The mercury soared to 100°F in Denver on Tuesday, their earliest 100° day on record (previous earliest 100° day: June 14, 2006, 102°.) It was the second consecutive day Denver recorded its hottest temperature for so early in the year. At Lamar in Southeast Colorado, the mercury soared to 111°, just one degree below their hottest temperature ever measured, and 3° shy of the all-time hottest temperature ever measured in Colorado, the 114° reading in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. The most destructive fire in Colorado Tuesday was the Black Forest fire burning near Colorado Springs. The fire destroyed over 60 buildings and forced the evacuation of several thousand people. The fire was aided by nearly ideal conditions on Tuesday afternoon--Colorado Springs hit 97° (only the 2nd time the city has been that hot this early in the year), with sustained winds of 29 mph gusting to 36 mph, and a humidity of 4%. Colorado Springs is under extreme drought.


Figure 1. A garage is fully engulfed in flames as the Black Forest Fire continues to burn out of control northeast of Colorado Springs, Colo. on June 11, 2013. (Helen H. Richardson/The Denver Post/Getty Images)


Figure 2. Wild fires burn near Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado Springs, and Royal Gorge in Colorado, and in two locations in New Mexico, at 4:40 pm EDT June 11, 2013. Record heat and strong winds hit the region on Tuesday, causing critical fire conditions. The Image credit: NASA.

The forecast: better, but still dangerous
Fire conditions will not be as dangerous in Colorado today, as winds will be lower, and temperatures will be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold front that moved through the state overnight. Nevertheless, the air is still extremely dry and temperatures will be very hot, making it difficult for firefighters to gain the upper hand on the blazes. A red flag warning for dangerous fire conditions is posted for Colorado Springs, where winds of 10 - 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, are expected in combination with relative humidities as low as 9% and temperatures in the low 90s. Colorado and New Mexico can expect a destructive fire season the remainder of June and into July, due to severe to exceptional drought conditions and hot temperatures. Relief will likely come in July with the arrival of wetter conditions thanks to the annual Southwest U.S. monsoon. Colorado Springs experienced the most expensive wildfire in Colorado history in 2012, the $353 million Waldo Canyon fire. The burn started on June 23rd and burned through July 10th, burning a total of 18,247 acres. Approximately 347 homes were burned, 2 people were killed, and over 32,000 residents were evacuated.


Video 1. A close escape from the Colorado Springs Black Forest fire. "I could hear the roar and the explosions of residential propane tanks heading toward Black Forest and Shoup Roads. Then came a wave of intense heat followed by a burst of fast-moving, oncoming flames. Firefighters and cops panicked, ordering me to leave: "Take pictures somewhere else," yelled one officer. I'm certain within moments of my escape the fire gobbled up a gas station and Firehouse BBQ restaurant at the corner I was standing on."

Related: Wildfires in the U.S. will be at least twice as destructive by 2050, burning around 20 million acres nationwide each year, according to a federal report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2012. The report cited research predicting that a 1.8°F increase in temperature in Colorado would cause a factor of 2.8 - 6.6 increase in fire area burned.

Wunderground member mfrazzz has a webcam pointed at the Colorado Springs Black Forest fire.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday.

Severe weather outbreak Wednesday and Thursday
Tens of millions of Americans will be subject to a large outbreak of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, as a powerful low pressure system moves from the Great Lakes area to the East Coast. The greatest danger on Wednesday is for an organized complex of thunderstorms, possibly becoming a "derecho" event that brings widespread damaging straight-line winds to multiple states. A few strong tornadoes are also possible, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of alert "High Risk" for Chicago and northern Indiana. This is the first "High Risk" forecast SPC has put out in 2013. Today marks the first "High Risk" forecast for Chicago since May 30, 2004, and the 16th since 1980. You can follow the outbreak on our severe weather page.


Jeff Masters
Pyrocumulus from Rocky Mountain National Park fire
Pyrocumulus from Rocky Mountain National Park fire
The Big Meadows fire was caused by lightning in Rocky Mountain National Park. The heat from the fire made some respectable pyrocumulus clouds as I watched from Snow Mountain, above the YMCA camp where the Chapman Conference on Climate Change was occurring.
JarosoFire(2)
JarosoFire(2)
Thundercloud created by fire below. See Gil's (gilg7) photos also.
Silver Fire, Gila National Forest
Silver Fire, Gila National Forest
Burning in the Black Range in the Gila National Forest in SW New Mexico.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting galvestonhurricane:A LARGE BOW ECHO HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
IND/OH BORDER AND IS RACING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 45-50 KT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE /DERECHO/ ACROSS CENTRAL OH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.



What??? The SPS's definition is "a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."
How can what's being described in the discussion possibly be a derecho? The line, even if it had the winds described, would have to travel 240 miles in the next "several" hours. Assuming that "several" means four hours, the line would have to travel at 60 mph, which means averaging 52 knots. This kind of thing seems to contribute to the derecho hype, not help.
1002. beell
Quoting sar2401:

#883


Look, it's pretty simple. I disagreed with your assessment of a warm front sagging south as a cold front when it will either remain mostly stationary or lift north. After which you corrected/clarified by referencing an insignificant (to the current CONUS weather) cold front in Canada-despite my posting 2 days worth of WPC surface forecast charts depicting the progression of these features until they (the boundaries) cleared the east coast.

At this point and at an earlier point in the exchange, I would and did just simply agree to disagree. So anyway, your answer to the "question" was fundamentally flawed.

After any response you deem necessary to this post here on the blog, we can take it to WU mail and let the blog get on with it.

Good night.
1003. OHGamer
Gah this is giving me flashbacks to the Derecho of 2012. Here in Columbus OH that derecho clocked us badly, and having one happen in middle of the night just gives me chills.
This is record amount of post for a blog.
Quoting sar2401:


What??? The SPS's definition is "a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."
How can what's being described in the discussion possibly be a derecho? The line, even if it had the winds described, would have to travel 240 miles in the next "several" hours. Assuming that "several" means four hours, the line would have to travel at 60 mph, which means averaging 52 knots. This kind of thing seems to contribute to the derecho hype, not help.

A derecho is a system at least 240 miles long that travels for at least 6 hours and produces widespread winds of at least 50 knots across most of its path. Not sure what you're trying to say?
1006. ncstorm
Quoting sar2401:


What??? The SPS's definition is "a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles (about 400 kilometers) and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho."
How can what's being described in the discussion possibly be a derecho? The line, even if it had the winds described, would have to travel 240 miles in the next "several" hours. Assuming that "several" means four hours, the line would have to travel at 60 mph, which means averaging 52 knots. This kind of thing seems to contribute to the derecho hpye, not help.
The line doesn't look like it's breaking up anytime soon and it look like 250 miles long so we'll see. The radar image below do not includes warnings, hail icons, smoothing, etc. Just regular radar image on GR2Analyst.

Quoting HurricaneAndre:
This is record amount of post for a blog.


um... have you been here during a landfalling hurricane... 1000 posts you see in an hour
Skyepony has finally given me a plus after all these years; I can now cross off one of the items on my bucket lists...........:) She's one of my favorites and I plus her all the time. All it took was me referencing an event that has perhaps never been seen before. Thanks Skyepony, I love your knowledge. The women in my family are MENSA IQ'D, so I really appreciate what you bring.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A derecho is a system at least 240 miles long that travels for at least 6 hours and produces widespread winds of at least 50 knots across most of its path. Not sure what you're trying to say?


And it has to be linear or quasilinear right? An MCC could fit that definition too.
1011. beell
In regards to comment 1006. Your very luck I resemble that comment; or we'd have problems.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
This is record amount of post for a blog.
Not even close... one blog post had 4,000+ comments a year ago during a hurricane (Sandy, I believe). I'm sure one of long-time poster can tell you how many comments they saw in a single blog.
1014. zampaz
For BaltimoreBrian


600
WUUS51 KLWX 130414
SVRLWX
MDC009-017-033-037-130445-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0062.130613T0414Z-130613T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1214 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1209 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR HALLOWING
POINT...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLAG HARBOR...
SAINT LEONARD CREEK...
CALVERT CLIFFS...
LUSBY...
CHESAPEAKE RANCH ESTATES...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A
STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO
SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.



LAT...LON 3838 7638 3836 7638 3833 7640 3836 7649
3838 7650 3841 7653 3841 7654 3838 7656
3845 7678 3857 7674 3854 7651 3851 7651
3847 7648 3841 7641 3840 7640 3839 7637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 286DEG 28KT 3849 7663



HTS
I have seen around 5k on one post before but that was because Dr. was out of town so we had 1 topic for 4 days during a major hurricane threat. I think it was during Ike but I could be wrong
My weather radios just caught me off guard with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for portions of S. Maryland and a Special Marine Warning for the lower Chesapeake Bay. At least I know they will be working for tonight and tomorrow!
1017. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A derecho is a system at least 240 miles long that travels for at least 6 hours and produces widespread winds of at least 50 knots across most of its path. Not sure what you're trying to say?

I haven't found that 6 hour requirement anywhere on the SPC site. It only states "long-lived", as I quoted. I'm saying it seems unlikely to me that this line will maintain this forward speed for four hours, let alone six. I know you've been calling for this to happen, and you may be right, so we'll see.
1018. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
The line doesn't look like it's breaking up anytime soon and it look like 250 miles long so we'll see. The radar image below do not includes warnings, hail icons, smoothing, etc. Just regular radar image on GR2Analyst.


As I understand it, it's not the length of the line, it's the length of the path that makes it a derecho. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
1019. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not even close... one blog post had 4,000 comments a year ago during a hurricane (Sandy, I believe). I'm sure one of long-time poster can tell you how many comments they saw in a single blog.

I recall over 8,000 but I have no idea which storm that was for. I don't think Sandy took the record.
zampaz you might call this 'pregaming' for the derecho.

Quoting weatherbow:
My weather radios just caught me off guard with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for portions of S. Maryland and a Special Marine Warning for the lower Chesapeake Bay. At least I know they will be working for tonight and tomorrow!


Quoting sar2401:

As I understand it, it's not the length of the line, it's the length of the path that makes it a derecho. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
Actually, after looking back to 2012 derecho radar image, you're right. 2012 derecho look like less than 200 miles so it must be the length of travel. I still think it'll make it.
1023. zampaz
We're ready, stocked extra food for the cat. As long as I pay her the rent I can stay.
-z
Quoting sar2401:

I recall over 8,000 but I have no idea which storm that was for. I don't think Sandy took the record.
I didn't say Sandy took the record. I said one of long-time poster can tell how many they've seen in a single blog.
1025. MsZola
A little while ago we had two t-storms develop parallel to each other, they were moving more-or-less southeast and we were right in between them.

As a result, we had no wind whatsoever, a brief period of heavy rain as the southern storm expanded, and a lightning show like I have never seen--the flashing was so constant it was like a strobe.

I tried to get a short movie of it, but sadly, the digital camera is getting old and just couldn't pick it up. I don't think I've ever seen that much lightning in my life.

Not happy with the look of that big bow echo...

From where this line formed (central IL) till now it has traveled already around 240 miles
Rita and Katrina had so many posts, saved lives. This is a derecho happening, amazing. Hope Jeff blogs on it tomorrow.
1028. sar2401
Quoting beell:

There was one other major overnight derecho that I can find, which was on May 31, 1998. It was further north, and actually lasted 12 hours. Maybe history is repeating itself.



gonna be a hell of a night in ohio, line increasing speed
this line keeps growing northward I am keeping an eye on this. Even though chances are it wont make it up this far north I still am going to keep an eye on it.
1031. zampaz

660
WFUS51 KCLE 130432
TORCLE
OHC095-123-143-173-130530-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0011.130613T0432Z-130613T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN SANDUSKY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERRYSBURG...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELMORE...PORT CLINTON...NORTHWOOD...WOODVILLE...GENOA...OREGON.. .
OAK HARBOR...PUT-IN-BAY...WALBRIDGE...MILLBURY...CLAY CENTER...
WILLISTON...ROCKY RIDGE...BONO...RENO BEACH...CATAWBA ISLAND AND
MARBLEHEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.



LAT...LON 4159 8375 4172 8334 4154 8299 4152 8291
4155 8287 4158 8287 4160 8282 4165 8287
4167 8283 4167 8286 4173 8282 4167 8277
4158 8282 4155 8278 4155 8272 4152 8270
4140 8343 4149 8343 4147 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 246DEG 52KT 4149 8350



KING
1032. sar2401
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
From where this line formed (central IL) till now it has traveled already around 240 miles

The line hasn't had widespread winds of 59 mph or higher. It only counts when that starts happening.
Anyone know what the blinking V-shape would be?

1034. ncstorm
2012 Derecho caused over two weeks of power outages..
1035. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I didn't say Sandy took the record. I said one of long-time poster can tell how many they've seen in a single blog.

I know that, it was in reference to another post. I'm kind of a long-time member and, as I wrote, I can remember over 8,000. Maybe Rita or Katrina.
Quoting sar2401:

The line hasn't had widespread winds of 59 mph or higher. It only counts when that starts happening.

I'd say it has:

JULY 4, 1969 DERECHO
"The Ohio Fireworks Derecho"


This derecho had one of the first bow echoes identified by radar. It was very deadly as well. 18 killed by wind and 27 more by flash flooding by training storms behind it that night. Much like the storms in Michigan now.

radar image from 8:30 p.m. July 4 1969 Akron, OH



More than 100 boats in Lake Erie to watch the fireworks were flipped over.
SPC did an amazing job, as is par for them. Had one EF2+ tornado hit Chicago during rush hour, it would have been a disaster. Now with this late night event unfolding, they look like they predicted it right.
Quoting ncstorm:
2012 Derecho caused over two weeks of power outages..

Luckily, this time we're not it the midst of a major heat wave.
1040. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone know what the blinking V-shape would be?


Likely a blip in the return due to ground clutter or some electronic problem.
1041. OHGamer
watching latest weather channel info that line is gonna be in metro Columbus in about 30-45 mins (eta 0115-0130 EDT)...this line is racing fast.
1042. ncstorm
Good night guys..

everyone in the path of the severe weather, stay safe!

round 2 today..:)
1043. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
JULY 4, 1969 DERECHO
"The Ohio Fireworks Derecho"


This derecho had one of the first bow echoes identified by radar. It was very deadly as well. 18 killed by wind and 27 more by flash flooding by training storms behind it that night. Much like the storms in Michigan now.

radar image from 8:30 p.m. July 4 1969 Akron, OH



More than 100 boats in Cleveland OH harbor to watch the fireworks were flipped over.

I didn't even know what a derecho was but I was at Edgewater Yacht Club when that thing hit. Those were some of the strongest winds I've ever been in. A friend had invited us to go out on his boat to watch the fireworks. A couple of girls showed up and he decided to take them instead, so we watched the fireworks from the breakwater. I never saw him or the girls again. :-(
Lot of good points being made, sar2401 is right; derecho has to be a continuous bowing line of 58+ winds. The discreet storms shouldn't be included in that from earlier. That said, I'm pretty sure we'll cross the threshold of a derecho before the night is over. The line in Wisconsin can't be connected with what was happening in IL, and Indiana; they weren't connected. Most of what happened in Northern Illinois was discreet and not a bowing segment. Now I've confused myself....
sar2401 that is horrible!
Off to bed! Good night everybody!

I need to get up bright and early to leave for Denver. Hopefully these storms won't keep me up.
1047. zampaz
Quoting sar2401:

I didn't even know what a derecho was but I was at Edgewater Yacht Club when that thing hit. Those were some of the strongest winds I've ever been in. A friend had invited us to go out on his boat to watch the fireworks. A couple of girls showed up and he decided to take them instead, so we watched the fireworks from the breakwater. I never saw him or the girls again. :-(

Sad for your loss of friends.
July 4, 1977 DERECHO
"The Independence Day Derecho of 1977"


You can read about it but one part I'm posting here.

Figure 4. Area affected by severe downburst damage over northern Wisconsin during the derecho of July 4, 1977 (shaded areas "B" and "C" on Fig. 2b). From the damage severity, wind gusts were estimated to have been between 73 and 112 miles per hour in the light red shaded areas, and from 113 to 157 mph in the dark red shaded areas. (From Fujita 1978).

1049. zampaz
Quoting Ameister12:
Off to bed! Good night everybody!

I need to get up bright and early to leave for Denver. Hopefully these storms won't keep me up.

Stay safe from the fires, smoke is bad there, wear a mask.
A very well developed MCS, Derecho or not. Great structure.

I was born in March of 77, but I remember that well BaltimoreBrian. :) I remember flying a kite very successfully that day; which could have meant so many things back then. I'm out, stay safe all.
Quoting sar2401:

I didn't even know what a derecho was but I was at Edgewater Yacht Club when that thing hit. Those were some of the strongest winds I've ever been in. A friend had invited us to go out on his boat to watch the fireworks. A couple of girls showed up and he decided to take them instead, so we watched the fireworks from the breakwater. I never saw him or the girls again. :-(
I was in 2006 St. Louis Derecho #1 (there was 2 derechoes in STL area in 3 days that year) on July 19th. That derecho produced winds of 80-100 mph and it was the strongest storm I've ever seen (still is up to today). Busch Stadium suffered minor damage from that derecho and 40 fans was injured when plastic boards fell into the crowd when the winds came to stadium before derecho struck suddenly. Because of that, Busch Stadium is the first major stadium in USA to have "proven" weather shelters in event of derecho or tornado. Busch Stadium also add the radar to the scoreboard so fans will know when to get inside.
1053. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
sar2401 that is horrible!

It really was. Never even knew the storms were coming. Long before the days of weather radios or even sirens. The sky was scattered clouds a half-hour before and scattered clouds a half-hour after. The whole thing lasted about 25 minutes. My black '57 Chevy with a brand new engine was crushed by a falling tree as well. I had pretty much forgotten about it until I saw your post.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
A very well developed MCS, Derecho or not. Great structure.

Yep, it's impressive...

1055. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:

Sad for your loss of friends.

Thanks, I appreciate it.
1056. OHGamer
First severe thunderstorm warning for metro CMH issued.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO... NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO... SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO... DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO... NORTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT.

* AT 1249 AM EDT... RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF ESSEX TO WEST MANSFIELD TO LIPPINCOTT... MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE... DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORTH LEWISBURG... RICHWOOD... MARYSVILLE... MECHANICSBURG... PLAIN CITY... DELAWARE... ASHLEY... DUBLIN... POWELL... LAKE DARBY... HILLIARD... POLARIS... WORTHINGTON... UPPER ARLINGTON... SUNBURY...

IN ADDITION... MIDDLEBURG... KENNARD... MINGO... RAYMOND... SOMERSVILLE... CABLE... BROADWAY... POTTERSBURG... ESSEX... WOODSTOCK... PHARISBURG... MAGNETIC SPRINGS... MILFORD CENTER... STATE ROUTE 4 AT STATE ROUTE 161 AND NEW DOVER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY IN THESE CONDITIONS. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. IF IN A MOBILE HOME... A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS... MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER... GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA... WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
Quoting zampaz:

Stay safe from the fires, smoke is bad there, wear a mask.

Yeah, it's a bad time to head out to Colorado, but I won't be out there long. I'll be chasing across much of the plains with Silver Lining storm chasing tours. :-)

Quoting sar2401:

I didn't even know what a derecho was but I was at Edgewater Yacht Club when that thing hit. Those were some of the strongest winds I've ever been in. A friend had invited us to go out on his boat to watch the fireworks. A couple of girls showed up and he decided to take them instead, so we watched the fireworks from the breakwater. I never saw him or the girls again. :-(

That's terrible. :-(

Though you might hear a lot about tornadoes, or tropical cyclones in the news, other types of severe weather, such as damaging winds, hail, and floods can be just as deadly.

Anyways, now I'm off. See y'all tomorrow.
ABOUT DERECHOS

More about derechos. Everything there is.

The line storm (1934 painting)



Derecho in Illinois in 2008



Photo in Oklahoma in advance of a derecho in 2001.

Quoting sar2401:

I didn't even know what a derecho was but I was at Edgewater Yacht Club when that thing hit. Those were some of the strongest winds I've ever been in. A friend had invited us to go out on his boat to watch the fireworks. A couple of girls showed up and he decided to take them instead, so we watched the fireworks from the breakwater. I never saw him or the girls again. :-(
I thought you were from ca?
1060. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
A very well developed MCS, Derecho or not. Great structure.


So far, all the severe storms are in Ohio,and both the VIL's and storm tops have decreased over the past half-hour. The line at least looks like it's not getting stronger.
Gonna be a rough night...

That high pressure making these temps stay nice and juicy!especially at 12am
Da Hawksssss!
Like I said, Busch Stadium (St. Louis Cardinals) is the first major sport stadium to receive "Storm Ready" status from NOAA and NWS. Coors Field (Colorado Rockies), Target Field (Minnesota Twins), and Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati Reds) had since joined "Storm Ready" team.

Link to Busch Stadium's Storm Ready status

Coors Field joins Storm Ready with 3 other parks
1065. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd say it has:


I didn't mean the discrete storms from earlier today, I was talking about the storms from this bow line, which seems to be one of the requirements for a derecho.
Goodnight guys.
Getting nasty around the other side of the world! MJO is in full effect there
1068. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
That high pressure making these temps stay nice and juicy!especially at 12am

The water temps really don't change from day to night in the Gulf.
Quoting sar2401:

The water temps really don't change from day to night in the Gulf.

True but since that high has been sitting there they havent but last week it was changing. BOC was 87 during the day and turned 84 at night. So sometimes it does drop the temps
1070. zampaz

512
WFUS51 KILN 130508
TORILN
OHC041-159-130545-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0002.130613T0508Z-130613T0545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
108 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT.

* AT 107 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR MAGNETIC SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DELAWARE...
SUNBURY...

IN ADDITION...RADNOR...WARRENSBURG...LEONARDSBURG...K ILBOURNE...
GALENA AND OLIVE GREEN ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS
THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 4037 8292 4036 8290 4036 8284 4035 8275
4019 8279 4033 8332 4040 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 282DEG 54KT 4035 8324



BINAU
1071. sar2401
Quoting floridaT:
I thought you were from ca?

Grew up in Cleveland, got married when I was 20, moved to California, lived there for 40 years, and have lived in Alabama for seven years. I was actually back there visiting in 1969 after having left in 1966. One of the reasons was to get my '57 Chevy and drive it back to California. Not much went right that trip.

Would you like a copy of my CV? :-)
Quoting sar2401:

I didn't mean the discrete storms from earlier today, I was talking about the storms from this bow line, which seems to be one of the requirements for a derecho.




@wunderground Weather Underground 55s
1:10 AM ET: Close up look at the vortex on the north end of the #bow #echo.

Quoting AussieStorm:
It is very colorful and spread out over a lot of places.
Last post before bed. This possible tornado is moving at 55 knots (63 mph) which is pretty fast. Please turn on the weather radios if you're in the path of this line of storms.

GFS is becoming very aggressive about the strong MJO pulse in the Atlantic by the last week of June.

1077. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just so I'm reading that chart right, does it say there were 103 wind reports, of which only 3 were 65+ knots (~75 mph)? What is the criteria for the other wind reports?
Tornado's and wannabe derecho's tonight?
Looks like youre gonna get some of this thundercloud, stay query
1081. sar2401
Good live video from Columbus OH:
WBNS-TV
@TWCBreaking 1m
Reports coming in of "buildings destroyed" by high winds in Auglaize County, OH, around 12:20-12:25am EDT.
NWS Wilmington OH ‏@NWSILN 2m
130am: Columbus metro area about to see wind gusts of 60+ mph. From Columbus north is the strongest part of the line at this time. #ohwx
1084. zampaz
I live near the Northern tip of VA in Winchester VA which is about 95 miles west of Baltimore.
There's a storm body over WVA right now moving due east at about 35 mph which I anticipate will arrive in the next few minutes and then head over to BaltimoreBrian.
What I find interesting in watching the wundermap radar of the storm over Ohio right now is how the front of the storm is tearing away from the main body of the storm.
This reminds me of crust tearing from pizza leaving strings of mozzarella behind, I wonder if this will cause the overall storm to lose energy and intensity.
What are the thermodynamics of such a phenomena?
-z
Quoting sar2401:

Just so I'm reading that chart right, does it say there were 103 wind reports, of which only 3 were 65+ knots (~75 mph)? What is the criteria for the other wind reports?


58+ wind; either verified from spotters or damage to trees, buildings,dwellings, or radar indicated. They are often very subjective.
sar2401, more times then not, wind damage is the criteria used in wind damage reports. Usually they involve trees down, power lines down, or building/house damage. They are pretty reliable. Like for me today in Columbus, Wisconsin; we had 10-30 seconds of 60+ winds but no local damage. Hence, no damage when you go to check wind damage for my area.
1088. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
sar2401, more times then not, wind damage is the criteria used in wind damage reports. Usually they involve trees down, power lines down, or building/house damage. They are pretty reliable. Like for me today in Columbus, Wisconsin; we had 10-30 seconds of 60+ winds but no local damage. Hence, no damage when you go to check wind damage for my area.

Was that measured wind or estimated? My understanding from my storm spotter training, is that, if there's no damage, wind has to be measuered (not estimated) to be counted. You're right about subjective wind speeds in terms of damage though. I've seen damage that supposedly was from 60 mph winds when there were no measured winds anywhere in the area above 35 mph.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
CNTRL NJ TO ERN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

WELL DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FOCUSED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A POSITION FROM WRN PA INTO ERN TN AT
13/00Z. A CORRIDOR OF 50KT+ MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WV
INTO THE DELMARVA BY SUNRISE ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN WIND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF NC.
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS VA INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN EXPANSIVE AND MATURE MCS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI/NRN IND/OH...WITH A WELL DEFINED
MCS APPROACHING THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MCS
IS SURGING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT WHICH WOULD ALLOW SQUALL LINE TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT PROJECT THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF OR PROGRESS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. IF THIS
MCS ADVANCES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE MAY BE REDUCED IN BOTH INTENSITY
AND AREAL COVERAGE.

IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IT
APPEARS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL TIME FAVORABLY FOR MID DAY TSTM
INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN PA...SWD ACROSS MD/VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR BREACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. WITH
40-45KT CLOUD LAYER MEAN WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION IT WOULD
SEEM PROBABLE THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND COULD
POSE A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN PA
INTO SRN NJ SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBS
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

...MS TO SC...

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO SC. AS A RESULT...STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH NWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT STORMS THAT
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO REGION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREADS SEWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG LEE TROUGH WILL AID SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN MT INTO SERN
WY. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINED
DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SLGT RISK REGION. STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
TSTM INITIATION AND LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THIS DIURNALLY INITIATED ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 06/13/2013
1091. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:
I live near the Northern tip of VA in Winchester VA which is about 95 miles west of Baltimore.
There's a storm body over WVA right now moving due east at about 35 mph which I anticipate will arrive in the next few minutes and then head over to BaltimoreBrian.
What I find interesting in watching the wundermap radar of the storm over Ohio right now is how the front of the storm is tearing away from the main body of the storm.
This reminds me of crust tearing from pizza leaving strings of mozzarella behind, I wonder if this will cause the overall storm to lose energy and intensity.
What are the thermodynamics of such a phenomena?
-z

I don't really know, but, looking at the storm velocities out of Columbus, they range from 16 knots to 87 (!) knots. It appears that some storms are outrunning the rest of the line and leaving weaker storms behind. The south facing part of the line is definitely looking more ragged compared to the easterly moving part of the bow echo. The fast movers look like they are in the north part of the line, closer to the vortex. So far, the live feed out of Columbus is saying there is some tree and minor building damage but nothing like the derecho of last year.
1092. zampaz
Goodnight all. Be safe.
1093. sar2401
Quoting Civicane49:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
CNTRL NJ TO ERN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...


Surprisingly, very little change from the forecast from around noon today. Our mets out of Birmingham have also not increased the language beyond what they posted this afternoon. They usually don't update until about 0400, so I don't know if there will be any significant changes then. It's still 75 in SE AL with a dewpoint of 72, and it looks like we head up to about 98 again today. Instability, CAPE, and shear certainly look good for a severe weather event in Alabama, altough more likely norht than south.
1094. sar2401
Hello, derecho fans....echo...echo...

Just talked to my fianc%uFFFD daughter and son-in-law, who live on a soybean farm outside Johnstown, OH, east of Columbus. The line went through about 45 minutes ago and lasted for about a half-hour. His PWS had a measured gust of 42 mph and he's had 1.39" of rain. No hail at all, which is always a farmer's greatest concern. He stated this event was nowhere near as intense as the derecho of last year. There's about 25,000 people without power in the Columbus area, with a population of about 1.8 million. The only areas with confirmed significant structural damage is in Auglaize and Marion County, with some structures damaged and several barns partially collapsed. It's not clear if this is from straight lines winds or a tornado.

The squall line has weakened rapidly and significantly as it approached I-77. It appears that there's a lot of flash flooding along the southern edges of the line, and flooding may turn out to be the major story from this storm.

Was this a derecho? Will it be classified as a derecho? I'll be darned if I know. It certainly has been a very intense squall line, but it doesn't appear that it meets the basic derecho criteria of widespread 58 mph winds and a path over 240 mile long. I'm just happy that, so far at least, this has turned out to be a much less damaging event of the derecho of last year.
1096. sar2401
OK, weather fans, the last Ohio TV station has gone off-air with their live feed, so I'm about to do the same. It appears this was a lower impact event than was predicted (and feared). The line, in a much weakened state, is continuing to push east to PA and WV. What today will bring to the central coast on down to the Southeast we shall find out over the next 18 hours. I certainly hope it won't be any worse than what we've seen yesterday and this early morning. Good night to all, which isn't many right now. :-)
Good morning all (even though it is 4am ET). I received a rude awakening when all six of my weather radios went off for this new Severe Thunderstorm Watch. My father came in and yelled at me for waking up everyone, but it was worth it. I can't fall back asleep though, so I'm just gonna hope all the weather radios don't go off again and I'm gonna track the bow echo.



SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 400 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSPORT PENNSYLVANIA TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS GENERALLY MAINTAINING STRENGTH ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BY MID MORNING...WITH A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE SOUTH END OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
WEAKER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO
SUPPORT NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE...INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE AREA BY 11-13Z.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28040.


...KERR
The Pennsylvania side of the bow echo looks to be weakening greatly, except near Pittsburgh, where it is holding up.



Scott Olson Getty Images

Lightning strikes the Willis Tower, formerly Sears Tower, in downtown Chicago on June 12, 2013. A massive storm system with heavy rain, high winds, hail and possible tornadoes moved into Illinois and much of the central part of the Midwest on Wednesday.

According to my calculations, the bow echo is approximately 3 hours and 40 minutes away from impacting the Baltimore/Washington metropolitan area.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SRN OH...WV...NRN/CENTRAL/ERN
VA...PA...DC...DE...NJ...MD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302...303...

VALID 130927Z - 131130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
302...303...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BROADLY BOWING MCS AND TRAILING COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO
FORWARD-PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO RE-STRENGTHENING OF
MRGLLY SVR/DAMAGING COMPLEX NOW OVER WRN PA AND NRN/WRN WV...ONCE IT
GOES E OF MTNS...GIVEN THAT PASSAGE OF RELATED BOUNDARY SHOULD OCCUR
OVER PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN PRIOR TO SUBSTANTIAL SFC DIABATIC
HEATING. SFC MEASURING STATIONS OVER WHICH COMPLEX HAS PASSED
DURING PAST FEW HOURS STILL HAVE RECORDED SUB-SVR GUSTS BELOW 50 KT.
HOWEVER...WW 303 SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF MCS...AS WELL
AS FOR SPORADIC SVR WIND/HAIL RISK FROM PRECURSORY CONVECTION. WW
302 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED OVER MOST OF ITS COVERAGE
AREA...BUT ALSO MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME FOR PRECONVECTIVE AREAS
STILL IN WW 302.

DISCUSSION...DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED AHEAD OF MCS...FROM
W-CENTRAL PA ESEWD ACROSS SERN PA AND SRN NJ. WARM FRONT SHOULD
DRIFT NWD...AND APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST MRGL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS EXTENDS TO ITS N. AIR MASS S OF FRONT
IS COMMONLY CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...YIELDING WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG
IN MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. WEAK CINH MEANS AIR MASS IS QUITE PRONE
TO FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND GUST FRONT. INCREASING
CINH IS EVIDENT E OF MTNS AND GENERALLY NE OF POTOMAC RIVER...THOUGH
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND WEAK/PRECONVECTIVE SFC
DIABATIC HEATING MAY ERODE ENOUGH CAPPING TO SUPPORT TSTM
MAINTENANCE EWD TO NEAR COAST. CONVECTIVE AND INSTABILITY TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW E OF WW 303.

..EDWARDS.. 06/13/2013
Quoting weatherbow:
According to my calculations, the bow echo is approximately 3 hours and 40 minutes away from impacting the Baltimore/Washington metropolitan area.


I live 120 miles west of DC, and I can hear the thunder right now. It's about 5 miles away from here. Second bat signal sent up! :)
good early morning early birds in about 12 hours from now I'm going offline till Friday afternoon/evening
1107. barbamz




Good morning. Wow, quite a strong development with your storms! Stay safe everybody.

Concerning european flooding:

Euronews video update about Romania and Germany:
Search for missing three-year-old in Romanian floods
12/06 19:36 CET

Background report on Spiegel English
Operation Sandbag: German Troops Gain Fans on Flood Front
That's a lot of counties:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
630 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BEDFORD COUNTY...
BLAIR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY...
EASTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY...
WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
FRANKLIN COUNTY...
FULTON COUNTY...
HUNTINGDON COUNTY...
JUNIATA COUNTY...
MIFFLIN COUNTY...
PERRY COUNTY...
SNYDER COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTY...
UNION COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...
CENTRE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN LYCOMING COUNTY...
CLINTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

* AT 628 AM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF INTENSE HEAVY
RAINFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND URBAN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

* LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO...STATE COLLEGE...BELLEFONTE...LOCK HAVEN...TYRONE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7891 4148 7797 4148 7783 4122 7666
4117 7673 4110 7673 3972 7757

$$
It's heeeere.... some wind, heavy rain, a bit of tiny hail. Not too bad yet, we still have power after all!

Quoting goosegirl1:
It's heeeere.... some wind, heavy rain, a bit of tiny hail. Not too bad yet, we still have power after all!
How bad is the lightning?
Quoting goosegirl1:
It's heeeere.... some wind, heavy rain, a bit of tiny hail. Not too bad yet, we still have power after all!

My advice: Stay inside. lol
And there goes the weather radio... :/ At least it woke me up now instead of 3AM or something like that.
But I don't think this afternoon will be bad for my area because of the rain coming this morning
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Those who may want to answer the question that is below go to my blog.

Will a Hurricane be classified east of 60W before July 20?

Quoting Doppler22:
And there goes the weather radio... :/ At least it woke me up now instead of 3AM or something like that.
But I don't think this afternoon will be bad for my area because of the rain coming this morning
Lucky. Mine went off at 4AM :/
Quoting weatherbow:

Lucky. Mine went off at 4AM :/

:/ that stinks
1116. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Those who may want to answer the question that is below go to my blog.

Will a Hurricane be classified east of 60W before July 20?


That would certainly be interesting if it did happen. I'd say there's a very high chance for a TS to be named there. (Technically it already happened since evidence showed that 92L was a TS for at least 12 hrs last week). Whether a hurricane develops depends on the levels of SAL and vertical instability available. The windshear should not be too much of a problem once the equatorial ridge starts to lift northwards.
Me!!!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ADAMS COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN DAUPHIN COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
LANCASTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
YORK COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT

* AT 726 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
SHIREMANSTOWN TO PARKVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDED IN THE WARNING...
AKRON...CAMP HILL...COLONIAL PARK...COLUMBIA...CORNWALL...
DALLASTOWN...EAST PETERSBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...ENOLA...EPHRATA...
GETTYSBURG...HANOVER...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...HUMM ELSTOWN...
LANCASTER...LEMOYNE...LEOLA...LITITZ AND LOWER ALLEN.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING... HARRISBURG INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...HERSHEY PARK...GETTYSBURG NATIONAL MILITARY PARK...DUTCH
WONDERLAND...SKI ROUNDTOP SKI AREA...LIBERTY MOUNTAIN RESORT...CITY
ISLAND...MILLERSVILLE UNIVERSITY...FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE...
GETTYSBURG COLLEGE...MESSIAH COLLEGE...YORK COLLEGE OF
PENNSYLVANIA...PENN STATE COLLEGE OF MEDICINE...PENN STATE HARRISBURG
AND PENN STATE YORK.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 234 AND 295...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 58 AND 62...I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 49...I-283.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Morning!! Another beauty from Southern Illinois. 83 and sunny. What more can you ask for? Taking the nieces fishing today. I am even going to teach them how to bait their own hooks. I am starting them off early. :-) Then, we are going on a picnic. I hope everyone has a terrifc day and stays safe in the Mid-Atlantic with the severe weather threat.



Natalie
Good morning. A quiet and calm one here, with promises to be hot and otherwise uneventful day. The new Lantana bridge is still under construction, hopefully finished in November - though it's a double-edged sword; we like the relatively light traffic, but we miss our 15 minute walk to the ocean's shore...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304:



SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 730 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF
TRENTON NEW JERSEY TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DOVER DELAWARE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 303...

DISCUSSION...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS STRONG
ENOUGH...COUPLED WITH 40+ KT EASTWARD SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE WARM FRONT...TO SUPPORT A CONTINUING RISK
FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO NEW JERSEY/DELMARVA
PENINSULA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY AROUND 15Z.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28040.
Oh joy... the line segment coming towards me is starting to have a hail core... Fun

Quoting Doppler22:
Oh joy... the line segment coming towards me is starting to have a hail core... Fun
How about the one in Frederick/Carroll County, MD?

That is a strong storm
1124. SLU
CFS continues to predict very dry anomalies in the subtropics with slightly wetter weather across the MDR for July.

1125. SLU
It also re-strengthens the Atlantic tripole signature.

Quoting weatherbow:

How about the one in Frederick/Carroll County, MD?

Yup hail core
1127. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Monster humidity and heat stress levels yesterday..
Today more of same..
Why would anyone come here for a visit/vacation to experience this I'll never understand..

Anyone heard from Washi this am??
Boooo.2013 you have failed me.I had hope but I see that didn't work.Last years storms are what persuaded me to get a lap top so the computer is charged in case we lose power.The consequences with losing power with Sandy for about a hour or two wasn't bad..I hope pepco can pull it off again.Especially since they cut so many trees down in my neighborhood.I had the one in the front yard trimmed down as well back in May.
1129. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
Boooo.2013 you have failed me.I had hope but I see that didn't work.Last years storms are what persuaded me to get a lap top so the computer is charged in case we lose power.The consequences with losing power with Sandy for about a hour or two wasn't bad..I hope pepco can pull it off again.Especially since they cut so many trees down in my neighborhood.I had the one in the front yard trimmed down as well back in May.


Morning Washi.. :)
I see your ready..
You keep us posted ok?
Quoting SLU:
It also re-strengthens the Atlantic tripole signature.



Mixed signs by CFS with the dry anomalies and tripole.
Quoting pcola57:


Morning Washi.. :)
I see your ready..
You keep us posted ok?
Good morning Pcola.As it has been stated it won't take much for these trees to topple with the wet soil and all.Unlike last year we were really dry for June with only a inch by this time.We here in D.C had had 5+ inches for the month of June a real turn a around.
1132. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Mixed signs by CFS with the dry anomalies and tripole.


And also the warming in the Pacific areas which will not happen by July.

1133. LargoFl
Good morning folks!..just called my daughter in southern MD and warned her of whats coming, geez I hope they get thru this storm front ok..looks really bad huh..stay safe folks up there...
wonder if a real bad hurricane season for s fl effect the next presidential election?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NJ...MD EXCEPT
PANHANDLE...CENTRAL/ERN WV...DC...DE...NRN/CENTRAL VA.


CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303...304...

VALID 131210Z - 131345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
303...304...CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY MCS...WHICH WAS
LOCATED AT 12Z FROM E-CENTRAL PA TO NEAR FDK THEN WSWWD TO S-CENTRAL
WV NEAR CRW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD...OFFERING
OCNL GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS. MAIN HAZARD WILL REMAIN WIND
DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY INVOLVING TREES AND POWER LINES.

DISCUSSION...MOST WELL-ORGANIZED PART OF MCS WAS EVIDENT ASTRIDE
MD/PA BORDER...GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM-FRONTAL ZONE THAT
WAS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ACROSS PHL/ACY AREAS THEN SEWD OVER ATLC. WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND IS SHALLOW
ENOUGH FOR RISK OF STG/DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH SFC WITHIN 50-75 NM
TO ITS N AS WELL. PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F...ACTING IN
TANDEM WITH POCKETS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO INCREASE BUOYANCY.
MLCAPE JUST PRIOR TO TSTM ARRIVAL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 /KG
ALONG WARM FRONT TO 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL VA...ALONG N END
OF MODIFIED EML EVIDENT IN 12Z RNK RAOB THAT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES WITH SWD EXTENT. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED N OF VA/NC
BORDER...WITH 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES FROM WARM FRONT TO
N-CENTRAL VA. ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT FROM PRIMARY MCS CURRENTLY
DIMINISHES WITH WWD EXTENT INTO WV...RISK MAY INCREASE AGAIN FROM
TWO PERSPECTIVES...

1. RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY MOVING FROM CENTRAL/SRN WV EWD
INTO WRN/CENTRAL VA...AND INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
2. UPSHEAR CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS SERN INDIANA
AND MOVING ESEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM INITIAL MCS. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THIS SCENARIO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058
FORTHCOMING.


..EDWARDS.. 06/13/2013
Quoting islander101010:
wonder if a real bad hurricane season for s fl effect the next presidential election?


No......But the all the politicians will come out in droves for photo opps.....
1137. pcola57
Quoting SLU:


And also the warming in the Pacific areas which will not happen by July.



Morning SLU..
I just wanted to point out something that I think some folks will mis-understand by the map you posted..
That is for anomaly conditions and not climo realities..
Climo still puts everything on target for the season so far..

Please this in no way is meant to lessen the importance of the data you posted..
Just a quick reminder for those who aren't aware.. :)
Oh my... my house is shaking with all the thunder and its pouring, non-stop lightning and the power is flashing
1139. pcola57
Quoting Doppler22:
Oh my... my house is shaking with all the thunder and its pouring, non-stop lightning and the power is flashing


Keep your head down Doppler..
Looks wicked..
Aaaand... here comes round #3. More thunder, wind and rain in southern Mineral County, WV. Washi, there's more on the way, hate to break bad news to ya.
1141. SLU
Quoting pcola57:


Morning SLU..
I just wanted to point out something that I think some folks will mis-understand by the map you posted..
That is for anomaly conditions and not climo realities..
Climo still puts everything on target for the season so far..

Please this in no way is meant to lessen the importance of the data you posted..
Just a quick reminder for those who aren't aware.. :)


Thanks a lot.
Quoting goosegirl1:
Aaaand... here comes round #3. More thunder, wind and rain in southern Mineral County, WV. Washi, there's more on the way, hate to break bad news to ya.

Stay safe, Goose! You look to be in the line of fire today.

Nat
Just checked... look there in central Ohio. WV might be smacked yet again in a few hours. Good thing I installed those outriggers on my car, I might need 'em today.

Quoting Doppler22:
Oh my... my house is shaking with all the thunder and its pouring, non-stop lightning and the power is flashing
Be careful! I should be getting my fair share in about a half-hour.
ESPI wasn't available for a while there.. I harassed someone the other day & it's back:) -1.82 (& screaming La Niña..)

I am not on the impending El Niño wagon.. Looking at everything we have a better chance at La Niña conditions before the end of summer (though I lean toward official neutral). It takes 5 consecutive 3 month averages of .5 or greater to be an official El Nino. With MAM at -.2, there is about no way we'll be in an official El Nino by the end of fall.. As cold as 1 & 2 have been I doubt El Nino conditions are around the corner.
Well I just have to face it as a women..I cooked a pork tender loin for dinner tonight in case we lose power with the cooler on stand-by.Round one should be coming..but we're still getting sunshine in D.C which is bad news..
1147. pcola57
Quoting goosegirl1:
Just checked... look there in central Ohio. WV might be smacked yet again in a few hours. Good thing I installed those outriggers on my car, I might need 'em today.


Morning goose..
You keep your head down too..
No need in temping fate..
I saw last night where someone went out to shoot a couple of pics and got wind blasted..
By the way..
What is a "out rigger" ?
1149. zampaz
Morning folks, a bit of thunder as it is rolling through Winchester VA (nothern tip) 95 miles west of Baltimore.
Light rain.
Timing was right, shields still holding.
-z
1150. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I just have to face it as a women..I cooked a pork tender loin for dinner tonight in case we lose power with the cooler on stand-by.Round one should be coming..but we're still getting sunshine in D.C which is bad news..


Man o man..
Yummy..
Yet so far away.. :)
I love a woman who can cook.. :)
(Not meant to be a chovanist..just a good cook freak.. :)
1151. pcola57
Quoting SFLWeatherman: Post# 1148


Well thats an eye opener SFL..
Well have to see how that plays out..
Quoting Skyepony:
ESPI wasn't available for a while there.. I harassed someone the other day & it's back:) -1.82 (& screaming La Niña..)

I am not on the impending El Niño wagon.. Looking at everything we have a better chance at La Niña conditions before the end of summer (though I lean toward official neutral). It takes 5 consecutive 3 month averages of .5 or greater to be an official El Nino. With MAM at -.2, there is about no way we'll be in an official El Nino by the end of fall.. As cold as 1 & 2 have been I doubt El Nino conditions are around the corner.


So those models that are screaming El Nino are dead wrong.
Going camping this weekend and hoping that this low pressure moves out fast tomorrow for me.
Just heard they suspend play at the US GOLF Open at Ardmore PA.(located just NW of Phila.) Good move, there were several hundred people out there(players and spectators) on the course. Some real heavy weather moving in.
Quoting pcola57:


Man o man..
Yummy..
Yet so far away.. :)
I love a woman who can cook.. :)
(Not meant to be a chovanist..just a good cook freak.. :)
Full dinner includes mash potato's and green beans.I have all of this ready so we won't be eating all that unhealthy stuff like last year.My food wen to waste..and I had just went grocery shopping.
1158. pcola57
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So those models that are screaming El Nino are dead wrong.


Remember tr..
There only as good as the input data..
Data..
Data.
Dat
Da
D..
Well you know my friend.. :)
Special Statement
Statement as of 8:31 AM EDT on June 13, 2013

... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms approaching the
Philadelphia Metro from the west...

At 825 am, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated an
area of showers and strong thunderstorms moving into far eastern
pennslvania. The most intense part of the line of thunderstorms is
closest to the Pennsylvania Maryland border. This activity
continues to move eastward at around 50 mph.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this activity, with
the most frequent lightning across the lower Susquehanna valley as
of 825 am. As these storms move eastward, there will be an increasing
threat of dangerous cloud to ground lightning for the immediate
Philadelphia Metro area including the location of the U.S open
around 9 am.

If you hear thunder or see threatening weather approaching, seek
shelter immediately indoors. Do not seek shelter under trees.


Gorse


831 am EDT Thu Jun 13 2013

... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms approaching the
Philadelphia Metro from the west...

At 825 am, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated an
area of showers and strong thunderstorms moving into far eastern
pennslvania. The most intense part of the line of thunderstorms is
closest to the Pennsylvania Maryland border. This activity
continues to move eastward at around 50 mph.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this activity, with
the most frequent lightning across the lower Susquehanna valley as
of 825 am. As these storms move eastward, there will be an increasing
threat of dangerous cloud to ground lightning for the immediate
Philadelphia Metro area including the location of the U.S open
around 9 am.

If you hear thunder or see threatening weather approaching, seek
shelter immediately indoors. Do not seek shelter under trees.
1160. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
Full dinner includes mash potato's and green beans.I have all of this ready so we won't be eating all that unhealthy stuff like last year.My food wen to waste..and I had just went grocery shopping.


If I was related I def would have to make an apperance.. :)
They have arrived...Dark clouds outside.
Wind is picking up here in Baltimore City. The clouds are an ominous greyish-greenish hue. Absolutely terrifying.
Just starting hear the thunder now... also, is it just me, or is there some rotation in that northern edge of the thunderstorm line in southern PA? I sure hope not, it's barreling right towards me.
It is a relatively quick moving wind/rain event and glad to see that it was not as bad yesterday as it could have been. Main issue for the remainder of the day continues to be isolated pockets of powerful winds knocking down trees and power lines. Here are a few of the reports so far this morning from PA/MD:

DAMAGE REPORTED TO THREE HOUSES MINOR DAMAGE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ONE HOUSE DAMAGED BY DOWNED TREE. SEVERAL TREES DOWN ... MINOR ROAD FLOODING. POWER OUTAGES

1020 UNK STATE COLLEGE CENTRE PA 4079 7786 TREES REPORTED DOWN IN STATE COLLEGE

BORO AND FERGUSON TWP. (CTP)
1142 UNK 2 W KEEDYSVILLE

WASHINGTON MD 3948 7773 TREE DOWN AT 18334 MANSFIELD RD IN KEEDYSVILLE MD (LWX)

1150 UNK 1 E NEW OXFORD ADAMS PA 3986 7704 LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 30 AND ROUTE 94. (CTP)
1165. pcola57
Quoting washingtonian115:
They have arrived...Dark clouds outside.


Edited because I posted improper info..


Great. I have THIS to look forward to...


1167. pcola57
Quoting weatherbow:
Wind is picking up here in Baltimore City. The clouds are an ominous greyish-greenish hue. Absolutely terrifying.


Sounds ominious.. :(
It's like night time outside! really dark!..The winds are picking up.
1169. pcola57
Just a quick note and I'll back away for a few..

Thank you to those posting all the weather advisories and updates..
ALOT of people lurk and they may save lives..

Out for more coffee.. :)
It is beginning to rain here...hard. The sky is turning even more green-grey. I took a pic as the rain was beginning. It isn't looking pretty.
Quoting pcola57:


Wasi you can still get that vitual Valium weatherwannabe offered yesterday..Lol..

Keep your head down..
We need ya.. :)


You talking about me?........Don't remember what I said yesterday but the only "drug" I am addicted to is severe and tropical weather......... :)
ME
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 857 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TOWSON TO COLUMBIA...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSSVILLE...
WHITE MARSH...
JOSEPHINE LEE...
EASTPOINT...
BOWLEYS QUARTERS...
TURNERS STATION...
BACK RIVER...
SOUTH GATE...
MIDDLE RIVER...
RIVERIA BEACH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 7625 3929 7628 3934 7632 3931 7632
3929 7638 3923 7638 3919 7644 3921 7652
3918 7652 3914 7642 3907 7641 3906 7643
3902 7638 3897 7645 3919 7696 3940 7672
3938 7618
TIME...MOT...LOC 1302Z 296DEG 34KT 3937 7655 3912 7682

$$

1173. zampaz
Sorry for the dup, don't recognize alert id "ME"
1174. pcola57
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You talking about me?........Don't remember what I said yesterday but the only "drug" I am addicted to is severe and tropical weather......... :)


Oh my..
Very,very sorry..
I thought it was you..
My sincere apologies..

I will go edit immediately.. :(
Beautiful morning in Chicago. Hung over
after the triple overtime game last night. Chicago
is a hockey town!
Reposting because the first one didn't come out right. This one is for me though.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 857 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM TOWSON TO COLUMBIA...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSSVILLE...
WHITE MARSH...
JOSEPHINE LEE...
EASTPOINT...
BOWLEYS QUARTERS...
TURNERS STATION...
BACK RIVER...
SOUTH GATE...
MIDDLE RIVER...
RIVERIA BEACH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 7625 3929 7628 3934 7632 3931 7632
3929 7638 3923 7638 3919 7644 3921 7652
3918 7652 3914 7642 3907 7641 3906 7643
3902 7638 3897 7645 3919 7696 3940 7672
3938 7618
TIME...MOT...LOC 1302Z 296DEG 34KT 3937 7655 3912 7682

$$

More reports coming in from PA:

EMA DIRECTOR REPORTED A 1/2 MILE TO 1 MILE SWATH OF TREES DOWN NEAR FARMINGTON IN THE AREA OF SR 381 AND RANKIN ROAD. EMA DIRECTOR STATED THE DAMAGE WAS DUE TO STRAIGHT (PBZ)

0946 UNK PITTSBURGH ALLEGHENY PA 4044 7998 LANE RESTRICTION ON RT 51 AND WHITED ST OUTBOUND LANE CLOSED TILL TREE IS REMOVED ALSO DEBRI RUNNING OFF HILLSIDE ON MIFFLIN RD BETWEEN INTERBORO AND LEBANON. (PBZ)


Here is the SPC link to the current reports coming in:

Link
Sorry WeatherBow.
I had to temporarily put you on my ignore list so I can plus
muddertracker's awesome comment (1175).
I think one of your posts stretched the
blog and hid the control panel.
Okay, you are coming off my iggy now. :-)
Capital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather4 min
Severe t'storm warning for E Howard co and Baltimore. Intense storm in that area now w/ poss hail and 60 mph+ wind gusts.
1180. barbamz
Hmmm, someone's post is messing up the blog. Weatherbow, perhaps it's yours ;)

Quoting barbamz:
Hmmm, someone's post is messing up the blog. Weatherbow, perhaps it's yours ;)
I have no clue what is going on! I can't delete or modify any of my own posts! 
I blame it on the "derecho".
Loud thunder now!
If anyone can help me though, that would be great...
1185. zampaz
Quoting weatherbow:

I have no clue what is going on! I can't delete or modify any of my own posts! 
I blame it on the "derecho".

I'd plus that but can't see the button! har har har har.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Loud thunder now!


That's just your stupid icon in your avatar bouncing around in that box
Quoting islander101010:
wonder if a real bad hurricane season for s fl effect the next presidential election?


Wow, getting a head start on 2016?

It didn't help Bush 41 with Hurricane Andrew in 1992. I don't think Sandy made much difference in the last election, though it will undoubtedly help Gov. Christie in his re-eleaction campaign.

A lot depends on the quality of FEMA's performance, which depends on the quality of the people in charge, as in most organizations.

Weather in my island in Maine is sunny and 60's, a nice break from the rain. All you folks in the way of this storm, stay safe.

activity in the eastern atlantic is being hampered by strong westerly shear. over Africa no signs of tropical wave activity either. I suspect that will be so until the end d of the month. however july could be very active.
1189. barbamz


12 more posts and we'll reach a new fresh page ...
The offending post is from user "weatherbow" (1172, I believe). If you can't hide that post, just put the user on ignore until the page turns (or until s/he deletes or fixes the broken comment).

WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE MOST PART CLIMBING INTO THE
90S...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON. GFS IS SHOWING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30KTS AND LL SHEAR OF 25KTS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE
THE AREA IN A HIGH END SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND WITH THE LINE OF STORMS BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO WIND DAMAGE.
IN REGARDS
TO TIMING...IT APPEARS TO BE AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT FOR
NORTH GEORGIA AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA.

-nws peachtree city ATLANTA
I contacted support on the issue.
Storm reports from last night not as impressive as June 29, 2012 derecho.
A 2% 30% 25% on june 13 w a possible destructive squall line?

im elated.

stay safe everybody, esp up in the mid atlantic
Capital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather31 s
Nasty storm moving into Annapolis now. Severe t'storm warning for much of Anne Arundel County thru 9:45-10:15. Gusty winds, hail poss.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The offending post is from user "weatherbow" (1172, I believe). If you can't hide that post, just put the user on ignore until the page turns (or until s/he deletes or fixes the broken comment).

Here I am, on the road again,
There I am Up on the stage,
Here I go Playin' star again
There I go Turn the page...
1199. 19N81W
alot of dust out there!
NOW FOR THE PRIMARY THREAT...SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS LIKE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WE ALWAYS SEE SOME TYPE
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MISCHIEF IN MAY OR JUNE...AT LEAST THAT
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST 4 OR 5 YEARS OR SO. TODAY
WILL BE NO EXCEPTION...AND THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
PLAY A PART IN THE FORMATION OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HOT CONDITIONS THAT I TALKED ABOUT EARLIER...AS WELL AS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT THE SURFACE...WILL NO DOUBT BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE
ON MU CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 3000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
. AS
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO KICK IN THIS
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE BETTER SUSTAIN
THEIR UPDRAFTS WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KTS. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS
DUE TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN -10 AND -30C EVEN THOUGH THE 500MB
TEMPERATURE WILL BE QUITE WARM AT -6 TO -7C
. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
AND INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES...ANY SEVERE STORM THAT DEVELOPS
COULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THAT REACHES
ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE BEFORE MELTING TOO MUCH. THIS WILL BE
THE CASE WITH THE INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR A
TRANSITION TO CLUSTERS OR LINES OF STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS
. THE INVERTED V SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO
80 MPH TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DRY
AIR ALOFT.

SO NO DOUBT ABOUT IT...WE WILL BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING
FACTORS IN PLACE THAT COULD AT LEAST HINDER MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. THE AMOUNT OF MEAN MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE PROFILE IS LACKING...AND WE ARE ONLY BOTTOM LOADED AT THE
SURFACE WITH MOISTURE. ALSO...THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS
.(that's me) THESE LIMITING FACTORS COULD PREVENT MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND
WE`VE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH CHANCE POPS
WERE INCLUDED GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. I`M CERTAINLY NOT
TRYING TO DOWNPLAY THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL STILL HAVE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NSSL 4KM WRF AND HRRR ARE
HINTING AT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
THE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REGION ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND
WESTERN GEORGIA AS WELL...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

ALL THIS BEING SAID...THE MESOSCALE WILL STILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE ON
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY. IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO FIRE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND PRODUCE AN ORGANIZED COLD
POOL...SLAB-LIKE LIFTING WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD POOL AND LEAD
TO MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION AND A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
THREAT DOWNSTREAM.
WATCHING THE MESOSCALE WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TODAY
LIKE IT IS DURING ANY SEVERE EVENT...AND I ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH FOR FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EVEN
THOUGH WE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE OF A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOLKS NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT IF THEY ARE PLACED UNDER A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING TO TAKE IT VERY SERIOUSLY TODAY.



-BMX
1201. barbamz
We are expecting some storms later in Mainz, Germany.

Here our nice streaming weather cam.


Just to reach the turning of the page.
1202. zampaz
Quoting barbamz:

12 more posts and we'll reach a new fresh page ...

I can help with that.
Glad the storms passing through my area now had opportunity to lose energy overnight. Earlier formation would perhaps have made things worse?
edit:
Hooray! New page :)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Storm reports from last night not as impressive as June 29, 2012 derecho.

June 29, 2012



June 12, 2013



That's because there was no derecho. SPC briefly mentioned derecho, and the media ran with it. Its just the same with the weather sensationalism that you see every day now. Its either climate change, end of the world blizzards, epic tropical storms, etc. Diane Sawyer and her goofball team at ABC nightly news is the worst with Extreme Weather lead ins almost every night. It gets old real fast.
Quoting Chucktown:


That's because there was no derecho. SPC briefly mentioned derecho, and the media ran with it. Its just the same with the weather sensationalism that you see every day now. Its either climate change, end of the world blizzards, epic tropical storms, etc. Diane Sawyer and her goofball team at ABC nightly news is the worst with Extreme Weather lead ins almost every night. It gets old real fast.


I wouldnt call it climate sensationalism..

I'd just say it was a result of last year.

Same way after the 2011 tornado outbreak.
Sorry about all the hoopla! I have no clue what has happened. I haven't been allowed to delete, modify, or plus any comments. I did contact support though, so hopefully I can get some help.
That Lighting

Great web cam Barbamz. Thanks
My Aunt and Uncle and their daughter just self-evacuated from their house in Monument, CO!
Quoting weatherbow:
Sorry about all the hoopla! I have no clue what has happened. I haven't been allowed to delete, modify, or plus any comments. I did contact support though, so hopefully I can get some help.

I forgive you. You are off my ignore list now that we turned the page. :) Only problem is now I got that darn Bob Seger song stuck in my head. But, hey, It could be worse...
Quoting weatherbow:
Good morning all (even though it is 4am ET). I received a rude awakening whenall six of my weather radios went off for this new Severe Thunderstorm Watch.


G-morning everyone;

I see that it was a dark and stormy night for a number of people - and going to be a bumpy ride this morning for the mid-Atlantic/NE.

Hold on to your hats and stay safe!

@ weatherbow - six, really? Isn't that a little much? I believe in building redundancy into a system - but six? Stay sfae.

@washington115 - love the new avatar. Although it induced a hypnotic trance in me this morning, until I got that second gulp of coffee down.

I see that the threat of the dreaded derecho has not panned out, but the threat for tornadoes did.

And CO still burns. :(

On the good new, cut the CONUS in half right down the middle, and you have an idea of where it is wet and dry. Kind of a Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde situation.



Not gonna make breakfast today, send my regards to aislinnpaps.

Although I did filch some of wash's pork :)

Stay safe!
1214. Patrap


Chapman Conference


The goal of this Chapman Conference is to bring together scholars, social scientists, and journalists to discuss both the history and recent advances in the understanding of climate science and how to communicate that science to policymakers, the media, and society. A research agenda of the conference will focus on the efficacy of scientific communication, with ideas on improved practices arising as an outcome from collaborations spawned at the conference.

This exploration will take place through: 1) discussions covering the history of climate science and successes and failures in communicating scientific ideas to the policy makers and public; 2) an assessment of where we are with respect to current knowledge of climate science and its communication and acceptance by society; 3) a comparison with experiences in other areas producing similar difficulties between scientific knowledge dissemination, societal acceptance of that knowledge, and governance.

chapman.agu.org climatescience virtual meeting live-video
So, did I muck up the blog with that post?
1216. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 932 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 929 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 926 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 918 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 903 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 850 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 846 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOUNT HOLLY NJ - KPHI 840 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 840 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 833 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 831 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 826 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 825 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 823 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 811 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 809 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 807 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 804 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 752 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 748 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 735 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 731 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 728 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 726 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 709 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 653 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING STATE COLLEGE PA - KCTP 652 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013
Quoting barbamz:
img src="http://mzcam.kunden-mediamachine.de/markt/bil d.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;

barabmz - you have width defined twice in your image, could you fix it? Also, good afternoo, and hope that things are slowly improving in Europe, although I know it will take some time.

Quoting daddyjames:


@ weatherbow - six, really? Isn't that a little much? I believe in building redundancy into a system - but six? Stay sfae.


Thanks! And six. The primary reason I have them is because I pick up 4 stations here, and I like to be in the know :)
Quoting islander101010:
wonder if a real bad hurricane season for s fl effect the next presidential election?


Uhhhhh..Why?? The next US presdiential election is in 2016.
1220. zampaz
Quoting Patrap:
The Warming "Divine" Period begins






One cannot deny the loss of Arctic Sea ice.
Regardless of the cause the impact of the loss and the change in the overall climate for the Northern Hemisphere is undeniable.

Confront skeptics with reality, then argue cause based in science.
-z
1221. Patrap
Using FireFox or CHROME is the best way to Blog on wu.

They re-size any unfit Image automatically here.

Those running any form of IE should consider a browser upgrade as most of the tools here,in the menu, from the Tropics to Chat run best in those browsers.

Good morning all. Waiting for the rain to move in here. (south shore of Long Island, NY).
Quoting daddyjames:


G-morning everyone;

I see that it was a dark and stormy night for a number of people - and going to be a bumpy ride this morning for the mid-Atlantic/NE.

Hold on to your hats and stay safe!

@ weatherbow - six, really? Isn't that a little much? I believe in building redundancy into a system - but six? Stay sfae.

@washington115 - love the new avatar. Although it induced a hypnotic trance in me this morning, until I got that second gulp of coffee down.

I see that the threat of the dreaded derecho has not panned out, but the threat for tornadoes did.

And CO still burns. :(

On the good new, cut the CONUS in half right down the middle, and you have an idea of where it is wet and dry. Kind of a Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde situation.



Not gonna make breakfast today, send my regards to aislinnpaps.

Although I did filch some of wash's pork :)

Stay safe!
If that nasty high doesn't move out the way the U.S could still continue to look lik that with constant cyclones dropping rain in the east and the west very dry.
1224. barbamz
Quoting daddyjames: img src="http://mzcam.kunden-mediamachine.de/markt/bil d.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;

barabmz - you have width defined twice in your image, could you fix it? Also, good afternoo, and hope that things are slowly improving in Europe, although I know it will take some time.



I couldn't see anything wrong with it, no width was defined in my post (and no one ever complained until now when I've posted our cathedral cam):
img src="http://mzcam.kunden-mediamachine.de/markt/bil d.jpg
But I took it down for you. Link to the cam.
Capital Weather Gang‏@capitalweather2 min
Let's be clear: we *never* thought these AM storms would be a huge deal. The concern remains this PM. More on that soon.
Weatherbow, your comments #1172 and #1176 are the ones that messed up the page. A friendly suggestion: next time, maybe past plain text into the comment box, rather than pasting webpages, with all their wonky markup.
up and coming s.floridian senator who has ambitions to be president voted against aid . he might wish he voted otherwise. question when will s florida get its turn again.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Weatherbow, your comments #1172 and #1176 are the ones that messed up the page. A friendly suggestion: next time, maybe past plain text into the comment box, rather than pasting webpages, with all their wonky markup.
Thanks for the help! I've been trying to figure out how to paste that way though. I know I've done it before.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Weatherbow, your comments #1172 and #1176 are the ones that messed up the page.
A friendly suggestion: next time, maybe past plain text into the comment box, rather than pasting webpages
with all their wonky markup.


Could not see the friendly suggestion

Quoting zampaz:

I'd plus that but can't see the button! har har har har.


And ditto that for me.
1230. Patrap
Is a Sleeping Climate Giant Stirring in the Arctic?


Permafrost zones occupy nearly a quarter of the exposed land area of the Northern Hemisphere. NASA's Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment is probing deep into the frozen lands above the Arctic Circle in Alaska to measure emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost - signals that may hold a key to Earth's climate future. Image credit: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Flying low and slow above the wild, pristine terrain of Alaska's North Slope in a specially instrumented NASA plane, research scientist Charles Miller of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., surveys the endless whiteness of tundra and frozen permafrost below. On the horizon, a long, dark line appears. The plane draws nearer, and the mysterious object reveals itself to be a massive herd of migrating caribou, stretching for miles. It's a sight Miller won't soon forget.

"Seeing those caribou marching single-file across the tundra puts what we're doing here in the Arctic into perspective," said Miller, principal investigator of the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), a five-year NASA-led field campaign studying how climate change is affecting the Arctic's carbon cycle.

"The Arctic is critical to understanding global climate," he said. "Climate change is already happening in the Arctic, faster than its ecosystems can adapt. Looking at the Arctic is like looking at the canary in the coal mine for the entire Earth system."

Aboard the NASA C-23 Sherpa aircraft from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Va., Miller, CARVE Project Manager Steve Dinardo of JPL and the CARVE science team are probing deep into the frozen lands above the Arctic Circle. The team is measuring emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost -- signals that may hold a key to Earth's climate future.

What Lies Beneath

Permafrost (perennially frozen) soils underlie much of the Arctic. Each summer, the top layers of these soils thaw. The thawed layer varies in depth from about 4 inches (10 centimeters) in the coldest tundra regions to several yards, or meters, in the southern boreal forests. This active soil layer at the surface provides the precarious foothold on which Arctic vegetation survives. The Arctic's extremely cold, wet conditions prevent dead plants and animals from decomposing, so each year another layer gets added to the reservoirs of organic carbon sequestered just beneath the topsoil.

Over hundreds of millennia, Arctic permafrost soils have accumulated vast stores of organic carbon - an estimated 1,400 to 1,850 petagrams of it (a petagram is 2.2 trillion pounds, or 1 billion metric tons). That's about half of all the estimated organic carbon stored in Earth's soils. In comparison, about 350 petagrams of carbon have been emitted from all fossil-fuel combustion and human activities since 1850. Most of this carbon is located in thaw-vulnerable topsoils within 10 feet (3 meters) of the surface.

But, as scientists are learning, permafrost - and its stored carbon - may not be as permanent as its name implies. And that has them concerned.

"Permafrost soils are warming even faster than Arctic air temperatures - as much as 2.7 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius) in just the past 30 years," Miller said. "As heat from Earth's surface penetrates into permafrost, it threatens to mobilize these organic carbon reservoirs and release them into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane, upsetting the Arctic's carbon balance and greatly exacerbating global warming."

Current climate models do not adequately account for the impact of climate change on permafrost and how its degradation may affect regional and global climate. Scientists want to know how much permafrost carbon may be vulnerable to release as Earth's climate warms, and how fast it may be released.

CARVing Out a Better Understanding of Arctic Carbon

Enter CARVE. Now in its third year, this NASA Earth Ventures program investigation is expanding our understanding of how the Arctic's water and carbon cycles are linked to climate, as well as what effects fires and thawing permafrost are having on Arctic carbon emissions. CARVE is testing hypotheses that Arctic carbon reservoirs are vulnerable to climate warming, while delivering the first direct measurements and detailed regional maps of Arctic carbon dioxide and methane sources and demonstrating new remote sensing and modeling capabilities. About two dozen scientists from 12 institutions are participating.

"The Arctic is warming dramatically - two to three times faster than mid-latitude regions - yet we lack sustained observations and accurate climate models to know with confidence how the balance of carbon among living things will respond to climate change and related phenomena in the 21st century," said Miller. "Changes in climate may trigger transformations that are simply not reversible within our lifetimes, potentially causing rapid changes in the Earth system that will require adaptations by people and ecosystems."

The CARVE team flew test flights in 2011 and science flights in 2012. This April and May, they completed the first two of seven planned monthly campaigns in 2013, and they are currently flying their June campaign.

Each two-week flight campaign across the Alaskan Arctic is designed to capture seasonal variations in the Arctic carbon cycle: spring thaw in April/May, the peak of the summer growing season in June/July, and the annual fall refreeze and first snow in September/October. From a base in Fairbanks, Alaska, the C-23 flies up to eight hours a day to sites on Alaska's North Slope, interior and Yukon River Valley over tundra, permafrost, boreal forests, peatlands and wetlands.

The C-23 won't win any beauty contests - its pilots refer to it as "a UPS truck with a bad nose job." Inside, it's extremely noisy - the pilots and crew wear noise-cancelling headphones to communicate. "When you take the headphones off, it's like being at a NASCAR race," Miller quipped.

But what the C-23 lacks in beauty and quiet, it makes up for in reliability and its ability to fly "down in the mud," so to speak. Most of the time, it flies about 500 feet (152 meters) above ground level, with periodic ascents to higher altitudes to collect background data. Most airborne missions measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane do not fly as low. "CARVE shows you need to fly very close to the surface in the Arctic to capture the interesting exchanges of carbon taking place between Earth's surface and atmosphere," Miller said.

Onboard the plane, sophisticated instruments "sniff" the atmosphere for greenhouse gases. They include a very sensitive spectrometer that analyzes sunlight reflected from Earth's surface to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and carbon monoxide. This instrument is an airborne simulator for NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission to be launched in 2014. Other instruments analyze air samples from outside the plane for the same chemicals. Aircraft navigation data and basic weather data are also collected. Initial data are delivered to scientists within 12 hours. Air samples are shipped to the University of Colorado's Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research Stable Isotope Laboratory and Radiocarbon Laboratory in Boulder for analyses to determine the carbon's sources and whether it came from thawing permafrost.

Much of CARVE's science will come from flying at least three years, Miller says. "We are showing the power of using dependable, low-cost prop planes to make frequent, repeat measurements over time to look for changes from month to month and year to year."

Ground observations complement the aircraft data and are used to calibrate and validate them. The ground sites serve as anchor points for CARVE's flight tracks. Ground data include air samples from tall towers and measurements of soil moisture and temperature to determine whether soil is frozen, thawed or flooded.

A Tale of Two Greenhouse Gases

It's important to accurately characterize the soils and state of the land surfaces. There's a strong correlation between soil characteristics and release of carbon dioxide and methane. Historically, the cold, wet soils of Arctic ecosystems have stored more carbon than they have released. If climate change causes the Arctic to get warmer and drier, scientists expect most of the carbon to be released as carbon dioxide. If it gets warmer and wetter, most will be in the form of methane.

The distinction is critical. Molecule per molecule, methane is 22 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide on a 100-year timescale, and 105 times more potent on a 20-year timescale. If just one percent of the permafrost carbon released over a short time period is methane, it will have the same greenhouse impact as the 99 percent that is released as carbon dioxide. Characterizing this methane to carbon dioxide ratio is a major CARVE objective.

There are other correlations between Arctic soil characteristics and the release of carbon dioxide and methane. Variations in the timing of spring thaw and the length of the growing season have a major impact on vegetation productivity and whether high northern latitude regions generate or store carbon.

CARVE is also studying wildfire impacts on the Arctic's carbon cycle. Fires in boreal forests or tundra accelerate the thawing of permafrost and carbon release. Detailed fire observation records since 1942 show the average annual number of Alaska wildfires has increased, and fires with burn areas larger than 100,000 acres are occurring more frequently, trends scientists expect to accelerate in a warming Arctic. CARVE's simultaneous measurements of greenhouse gases will help quantify how much carbon is released to the atmosphere from fires in Alaska - a crucial and uncertain element of its carbon budget.

Early Results

The CARVE science team is busy analyzing data from its first full year of science flights. What they're finding, Miller said, is both amazing and potentially troubling.

"Some of the methane and carbon dioxide concentrations we've measured have been large, and we're seeing very different patterns from what models suggest," Miller said. "We saw large, regional-scale episodic bursts of higher-than-normal carbon dioxide and methane in interior Alaska and across the North Slope during the spring thaw, and they lasted until after the fall refreeze. To cite another example, in July 2012 we saw methane levels over swamps in the Innoko Wilderness that were 650 parts per billion higher than normal background levels. That's similar to what you might find in a large city."

Ultimately, the scientists hope their observations will indicate whether an irreversible permafrost tipping point may be near at hand. While scientists don't yet believe the Arctic has reached that tipping point, no one knows for sure. "We hope CARVE may be able to find that 'smoking gun,' if one exists," Miller said.

Other institutions participating in CARVE include City College of New York; the joint University of Colorado/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colo.; San Diego State University; University of California, Irvine; California Institute of Technology, Pasadena; Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.; University of California, Berkeley; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, Calif.; University of California, Santa Barbara; NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colo.; and University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

For more information on CARVE, visit: http://science.nasa.gov/missions/carve/ .



Alan Buis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-354-0474
Alan.buis@jpl.nasa.gov
Link

A video I took of the line of storms earlier this morning. Sorry for my family talking in the background as I like to stay silent while i'm taking a video
1232. bappit
Can anyone post War and Peace? (Since we're all kvetching this morning.)
Quoting barbamz:


I couldn't see anything wrong with it, no width was defined in my post (and no one ever complained until now when I've posted our cathedral cam):
img src="http://mzcam.kunden-mediamachine.de/markt/bil d.jpg
But I took it down for you. Link to the cam.


Sorry barbmz - was thinking that the width being defined
twice may have been what mucked up the blog.
But it appears that it was not you.

Forgive me? :)
Quoting bappit:
Can anyone post War and Peace? (Since we're all kvetching this morning.)


Only kvetching as we cannot read half of what is posted.

So we would only get the War part of War and Peace.
Does anyone know how bad the threat in the mid-Atlantic will be today? I'm still extremely confused with how the "derecho" plays in the role of storm development this afternoon.
Quoting daddyjames:


Only kvetching as we cannot read half of what is posted.

So we would only get the War part of War and Peace.

At least it would be interesting. Peace is pretty boring, which is why there are so few monuments to it.
Quoting Doppler22:
Link

A video I took of the line of storms earlier this morning. Sorry for my family talking in the background as I like to stay silent while i'm taking a video
That is what the scene looked like here in D.C but with less lightning.Now the sun is back out fueling what should be our doom later on.
No offense weatherbow . . .

Hey mods! Can we get a delete of posts #1172 and #1176?

Thanks.
Getting ready to shoot that avatar, ;)
1240. barbamz
Quoting daddyjames:


Sorry barbmz - was thinking that the width being defined
twice may have been what mucked up the blog.
But it appears that it was not you.

Forgive me? :)


Barely, lol :)

Quoting washingtonian115:
That is what the scene looked like here in D.C but with less lightning.Now the sun is back out fueling what should be our doom later on.
The sun is also out here too. It isn't looking good.
1242. Patrap
.."the pain of war can not exceed, the woe of aftermath"..
Quoting weatherbow:
Does anyone know how bad the threat in the mid-Atlantic will be today? I'm still extremely confused with how the "derecho" plays in the role of storm development this afternoon.



If it had died there would have been more instability...it's still getting quite nasty north of DC


with that said, storms with mainly wind, but also hail and tornados in supercells, will develop this afternoon in the MDT risk area, along with explosive development down through the SE

Quoting daddyjames:
No offense weatherbow . . .

Hey mods! Can we get a delete of posts #1172 and #1176?

Thanks.
None taken. Actually, I've been asking for that too.
Quoting daddyjames:
Could not see the friendly suggestion
Well, then, it was a good thing you were able to quote that suggestion in its entirety, wasn't it? ;-)

The Washington Post had a great blog post last evening discussing the derecho/not derecho aspect of today's event: Stop focusing on whether it's a derecho or not: it's a serious storm risk.
Quoting Birthmark:

At least it would be interesting. Peace is pretty boring, which is why there are so few monuments to it.


Yeah, that's a shame and needs to be changed.

We memorialize only that which causes pain and
heartbreak.

Kind of like the "drama" people were commenting on
about the oversell of the derecho by the media
(eariler in the comments).
Evening all.

How is everyone. What was the damages from the severe weather last night there. Is it still on going. Also please tell me no deaths from this severe weather.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, then, it was a good thing you were able to quote that suggestion in its entirety, wasn't it? ;-)

The Washington Post had a great blog post last evening discussing the derecho/not derecho aspect of today's event: Stop focusing on whether it's a derecho or not: it's a serious storm risk.
They have other cool little blogs as well and safety tip.Best weather service on the web for local and national weather.
Quoting barbamz:


Barely, lol :)


LOL - but at least you did. :P

Quoting weatherbow:

None taken. Actually, I've been asking for that too.


+1

Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, then, it was a good thing you were able to quote that suggestion in its entirety, wasn't it? ;-)

The Washington Post had a great blog post last evening discussing the derecho/not derecho aspect of today's event: Stop focusing on whether it's a derecho or not: it's a serious storm risk.


+1, could not see the link wanted to read it ;)
1252. hydrus
BTW CWG will have a pay wall up soon meaning you will have to subscribe in order to view there blogs.It will go into affect gradually.

Are the models still showing tropical development?.

Nea just giving a friendly heads up is all :).
Some models show a break in the line in Ga.....

storms in SC and alabama....we'll see

also if isolated storms did develop, areas in eastern GA toward SC would have the highest risk of an EF0-EF1 type spinup....

I highly doubt one occurs though, but with quick storm development you never know.
Quoting washingtonian115:
BTW CWG will have a pay wall up soon meaning you will have to subscribe in order to view there blogs.It will go into affect gradually.

Are the models still showing tropical development?.

Nea just giving a friendly heads up is all :).


Why.....
Everybody is doing that now, and I'm a cheap guy.
Quoting weatherbow:

None taken. Actually, I've been asking for that too.

You messed that up so badly someone will have to fix that in SF when they get to work..I put in for it. Everyone in an incompatible browser needs to set your page to 50 comments a page & you will be good.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Some models show a break in the line in Ga.....

storms in SC and carolina....we'll see

also if isolated storms did develop, areas in eastern GA toward SC would have the highest risk of an EF0-EF1 type spinup....

I highly doubt one occurs though, but with quick storm development you never know.


What the hell does this mean?!?!
1259. Patrap
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why.....
Everybody is doing that now, and I'm a cheap guy.
I'm not exactly sure.I need to read it again.Probably trying to make it exclusive like the NY times.Those sequester budget cuts are having a affect on us weather nerds.
Emergency manager reports one person injured from a lightning strike in Rising Sun, MD

Quoting Skyepony:

You messed that up so badly someone will have to fix that in SF when they get to work..I put in for it. Everyone in an incompatible browser needs to set your page to 50 comments a page & you will be good.
Thanks for your help! :)
1263. Patrap
CWG,,putting the "Capital" flair on whats available free on the WWW.

No sequestration there.
BREAKING: Massive explosion and fire at Louisiana chemical plant, high death toll expected
Quoting Grothar:
Thank you all very much. My family and I were very touched. (And as most of you know I was already a little bit "touched" before.

This is for all of you.






Grothar sends us a message from his blog. Hooray!
Quoting presslord:


What the hell does this mean?!?!


Ooops, meant to say alabama, its fixed now....

If i meant north and south carolina, i would have just said 'The Carolinas'
1267. Patrap

Smoke billows after an explosion rocked the Williams Olefins plant near Geismar, Louisiana, Thursday morning. June 13, 2013 (Chris Brooks)

Explosion at Williams Olefins plant in Geismar

An explosion occurred at the Williams Olefins plant near Geismar, La. on Thursday morning, Louisiana State Police Trooper Jared Sandifer confirmed.

The explosion was reported just after 8:30 a.m. Sandifer said there are possible injuries.

As of 9:30 a.m., LA 74 and LA 30 at LA 3115 are closed due to the explosion, which state police described as a "haz-mat incident." State police suggest using an alternate route.

Several witnesses also reported the explosion. Plants around the area were reportedly being evacuated.

A thick cloud of black smoke could be seen from where the road was blocked off.

No other details were immediately available.

Follow NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune for updates.
Quoting Luisport:
BREAKING: Massive explosion and fire at Louisiana chemical plant, high death toll expected



Twitter is a great instant source of info, but you cant repost everything.

Who said it was a high death toll expected?

As this line moves east, and storms develop ahead of it, the main severe wx risk for today will develop

Quoting Patrap:
CWG,,putting the "Capital" flair on whats available free on the WWW.

No sequestration there.


Link


Link
Quoting Luisport:
BREAKING: Massive explosion and fire at Louisiana chemical plant, high death toll expected

I haven't seen any local media report anything suggesting that at this time.
1272. Dakster
http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/13/us/louisiana-chemical -plant-explosion/

How about here?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Little bit of a broad circulation trying to spin up between South Florida and the Bahamas looking at the hi-res loops in a little pocket of low shear.

Jeez, give a tiny remnant over the Gulf Stream in June a very tiny low sheer window (even though surrounded by very dry air and high sheer to the East and South) and it wants to become a player..............

Link

Not going to happen; no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And sitting right under a huge ULL/Tutt Cell dumping dry sinking air into it:

Link