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Extreme Jet Stream Pattern Triggers Historic European Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on June 09, 2013

A historic multi-billion dollar flood disaster has killed at least eighteen people in Central Europe after record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia over the past two weeks. The Danube River in Passau, Germany hit the highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher. The Danube is expected to crest in Hungary's capital city of Budapest on June 10 at the highest flood level on record, 35 cm higher than the record set in 2006. The flooding was caused by torrential rains that fell on already wet soils. In a 2-day period from May 30 - June 1, portions of Austria received the amount of rain that normally falls in two-and-half months: 150 to 200 mm (5.9 to 7.9"), with isolated regions experiencing 250 mm (9.8"). This two-day rain event had a greater than 1-in-100 year recurrence interval, according to the Austrian Meteorological Agency, ZAMG. Prior to the late May rains, Austria had its seventh wettest spring in 150 years, which had resulted in the ground in the region becoming saturated, leading to greater runoff when the rains began.


Figure 1. Aerial view of the flooded Danube River in Deggendorf, Germany on Friday, June 7, 2013. (AP Photo/Armin Wegel)


Figure 2. The Danube River in Grein, Austria was barely kept in check by a floodwall built by IBS Engineering. Image credit: IBS Engineering.

Floods caused by a blocking high pressure system
The primary cause of the torrential rains over Central Europe during late May and early June was large loop in the jet stream that developed over Europe and got stuck in place. A "blocking high" set up over Northern Europe, forcing two low pressure systems, "Frederik" and "Günther", to avoid Northern Europe and instead track over Central Europe. The extreme kink in the jet stream ushered in a strong southerly flow of moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean Sea over Central Europe, which met up with colder air flowing from the north due to the stuck jet stream pattern, allowing "Frederik" and "Günther" to dump 1-in-100 year rains. The stuck jet stream pattern also caused record May heat in northern Finland and surrounding regions of Russia and Sweden, where temperatures averaged an astonishing 12°C (21°F) above average for a week at the end of May. All-time May heat records--as high as 87°F--were set at stations north of the Arctic Circle in Finland.


Figure 3. Nine-day rainfall amounts in portions of Southern Germany and Western Austria exceeded 12" (305 mm.) Image credit: ZAMG.

If it seems like getting two 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods in eleven years is a bit suspicious--well, it is. Those recurrence intervals are based on weather statistics from Earth's former climate. We are now in a new climate regime with more heat and moisture in the atmosphere, combined with altered jet stream patterns, which makes major flooding disasters more likely in certain parts of the world, like Central Europe. As I discussed in a March 2013 post, "Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?", research published this year by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in German found that extreme summertime jet stream patterns had become twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of these extreme patterns occurred in August 2002, during Central Europe's last 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year flood. When the jet stream goes into one of these extreme configurations, it freezes in its tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the jet stream lies. The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. According to German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, "Planetary wave [jet stream] amplitudes have been very high in the last few weeks; we think this plays a role in the current German flooding event." More rains are in store for the flood area through Monday, then the blocking pattern responsible for the great 2013 Central European flood is expected to disintegrate, resulting in a return to more typical June weather for the next two weeks.


Figure 4. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 1980, July 2011, and the last twelve days of May 2013. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S. (the 4th warmest month in U.S. history), and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. Late May 2013 was also very extreme, resulting the great Central European floods of 2013. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov and Stefan Rahmstorf.

Links
Stefan Rahmstorf's blog (translated from German) on the unusual jet stream patterns that caused the Central European floods of 2013.

NASA has high-resolution MODIS satellite images showing the flooding of the Elbe River in Germany.

My April 2013 post, "Unusually cold spring in Europe and the Southeast U.S. due to the Arctic Oscillation", has a good summary of recent unusual jet stream patterns and the science behind them.


Video 1. Climate, Ice, and Weather Whiplash: In this June 3, 2013 video by the Yale Climate Forum's Peter Sinclair, Rutgers' Jennifer Francis and Weather Underground's Jeff Masters explore the 'Why?' of two years of mirror images of weather across North America.

I'm in Granby, Colorado this week for the American Geophysical Union's Chapman Conference on Climate Change Communication. Many of the talks will be webcast live; you can see a list of the talks (times in MDT) here. My talk, "The Weather Underground Experience," is scheduled for Monday at 4:30 pm MDT. I'll give a 15-minute overview of the history of wunderground, and what I've learned about communicating weather and climate change information along the way. There is live tweeting going on from the conference, #climatechapman. My blog updates this week may be somewhat random as a result of the conference, but I'm not seeing anything in the tropics worthy of discussion at this point.

Jeff Masters
June 9, 2013. Flood
June 9, 2013.  Flood
Budapest 2013/06/09 06:35 CEST. Flood. The ninth day
"Welcome on board?"
Certainly no embarkments today ...

Flood Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting washingtonian115:
Their is a chance the mountains could rip it apart.I'm hoping..but knowing that D.C is a heat island they might re-fire.


The mountains didn't help last year, though. The derecho held together all the way to the Atlantic, if you recall. Coastal NJ got some action out of that. I don't know if there will be enough energy to fire a huge event like 6/29, but areas east of the Ohio River look like they will see some action tomorrow and Thursday.
Quoting goosegirl1:


The mountains didn't help last year, though. The derecho held together all the way to the Atlantic, if you recall. Coastal NJ got some action out of that. I don't know if there will be enough energy to fire a huge event like 6/29, but areas east of the Ohio River look like they will see some action tomorrow and Thursday.
We will have a high in the upper 80's tomorrow probably in the low 90's in some places with high humdity levels not to mention the air will already be unstable.I'm depending on the mountains but just in case I'm prepared.
OFF TOPIC: Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l35 min
RT @nchrysoloras: Greeks lose access to @BBCWorld & @DeutscheWelle. Both were transmitted via now-dead ERT @ISNJH
On This Day in Weather History

11 June 1915 The twister that hit near Mullinville, KS was a mile wide multi-vortex tornado at the peak of its power that swept away an entire farm and threw a trio of mules a distance of two miles. Eight suction vortices were observed. However, the storm moved so slowly that people were able to get out of its way and there wasn't a single death or even an injury.
11 June 1939 A tornado raced through Saint John in Quebec. Roofs were ripped off houses and trees were toppled. The storm damaged decorations erected for the visit of King George and Queen Elizabeth on the 12th.
11 June 1997 Cars were floating in intersections in Miami, FL after up to 10 inches of rain fell during the morning hours.
11 June 2010 Thunderstorms repeatedly developed over the Albert Pike Recreation Area in Arkansas, dropping 5 to 7 inches of rain. A flash flood on the Little Missouri River swept through campgrounds, taking the lives of 20 people.

Source
Quoting goosegirl1:


Yea, Washi and I might do some cryin' tomorrow if the lights go out again :)
Lol.Thinking the same thing here.

1510. zampaz
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.Thinking the same thing here.


Here in Winchester, VA I'm already wailing in my pillow.
-z
Quoting zampaz:

Here in Winchester, VA I'm already wailing in my pillow.
-z
Get the kits ready and the flash lights.If you have a fire place you and the family can camp out in the front room.S'mores!
Quoting zampaz:

Here in Winchester, VA I'm already wailing in my pillow.
-z


I work in a town about 40 miles west of Winchester, but I won't be at home tomorrow to send up the bat signal to let the capitol area know the storms are approaching. If I get back home before all the action, I'll be sure to send out a pigeon or something :) in case internet is down.
1513. MsZola

Quoting goosegirl1:


Yea, Washi and I might do some cryin' tomorrow if the lights go out again :)



We got our charcoal, batteries and ice a little while ago, and we got us some beer because beer goes great with everything!

All joking aside, I really hope this doesn't develop, I think I'd go insane at another five day power outage. I can only read for so long. At least this time there's a little warning that it might happen--last year, it was just "thunderstorms" in the forecast and then the derecho came roaring through. (I'm in Weston, WV, about 50 miles south of Morgantown, goosegirl1)


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BIG HORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 331 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTH OF
BALLANTINE TO FORT SMITH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES
WEST OF HARDIN TO 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOVELL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARDIN...ST. XAVIER AND FORT SMITH.
1515. Patrap


1516. Patrap
Please post the COMPLETE message when rolling Info.







723
WUUS55 KBYZ 112131
SVRBYZ
MTC003-112230-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.SV.W.0034.130611T2131Z-130611T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
331 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BIG HORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 331 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTH OF
BALLANTINE TO FORT SMITH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES
WEST OF HARDIN TO 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOVELL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARDIN...ST. XAVIER AND FORT SMITH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.



LAT...LON 4600 10762 4536 10746 4522 10808 4577 10806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 226DEG 18KT 4568 10803 4526 10795



CJS
1517. zampaz
Quoting washingtonian115:
Get the kits ready and the flash lights.If you have a fire place you and the family can camp out in the front room.S'mores!

I live alone with Star, my cat. We live in downtown Winchester in one bedroom apartment shoe-horned into a brick building built in 1820, which is in turn shoehorned between two older buildings. Unfortunately the fireplaces were sheet rocked over, in the 40's it appears, judging by the waist-board. Everything I need is within walking distance. We maintain a very low carbon footprint lifestyle.
-z
Quoting Patrap:
Please post the COMPLETE message when rolling Info.







723
WUUS55 KBYZ 112131
SVRBYZ
MTC003-112230-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.SV.W.0034.130611T2131Z-130611T2230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
331 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BIG HORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT

* AT 331 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTH OF
BALLANTINE TO FORT SMITH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES
WEST OF HARDIN TO 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOVELL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARDIN...ST. XAVIER AND FORT SMITH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.



LAT...LON 4600 10762 4536 10746 4522 10808 4577 10806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 226DEG 18KT 4568 10803 4526 10795



CJS

How come?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all... anybody else notice this?

yes.
1520. zampaz
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

How come?

Crickets chirped in the shocked silence. The newb cleared this throat and said;
"The message ID can be verified, relevant and official information is contained in the bulletin, including all areas affected, including the coordinate references..."
the crickets resumed.
Quoting Astrometeor:

Not expecting anything from this, tomorrow is a whole different story. As long as I get some good instability it should get interesting up here.

NWS Detroit:

Convection across the wrn Ohio Valley and wrn Great Lakes on the nose of the low level inflow should
be ongoing Wednesday morning. Model solutions actually suggest there may be several convectively
induced short waves sliding across the srn Great Lakes Wednesday in advance of the main mid level
wave. The convection through the early part of the day may struggle as it works into a more stable
airmass over se Michigan. Increased southerly inflow through the afternoon should however advect
ample elevated instability into the forecast area /with 0-3Km mu cape possibly reaching 2000 j/kg/.
This will of course be dependent upon the intensity and coverage of potential showers/thunderstorms
early in the day. 0-6Km shear of 60 knots combined with good low level helicity will be more than
sufficient in generating severe weather assuming efficient advection of instability. The day two
outlook for se Michigan continues to have the srn half of the forecast area in a slight risk /closer
to the reservoir of instability/. A developing easterly flow off the ern Great Lakes is likely to
hold the sfc warm front near the state line or south. Severe weather parameters along and just north
of this warm front /where low level helicity will be maximized/ are actually quite good and
certainly raise concerns for super cells during the afternoon and evening. This convection may grow
upscale into convective line segments with damaging winds being a possibility later in the day.
Locations along and south of a jackson to Detroit line stand the highest chances of seeing severe
weather given the proximity to the warm front.
Quoting MsZola:




We got our charcoal, batteries and ice a little while ago, and we got us some beer because beer goes great with everything!

All joking aside, I really hope this doesn't develop, I think I'd go insane at another five day power outage. I can only read for so long. At least this time there's a little warning that it might happen--last year, it was just "thunderstorms" in the forecast and then the derecho came roaring through. (I'm in Weston, WV, about 50 miles south of Morgantown, goosegirl1)



I posted earlier today about a good friend of mine who lives out in the woods near Belington- her power was out for 2 weeks, so she went camping. like any good WV native. We'll be fine back here- it's the flat-landers we have to worry about :)))) Washi, I hope we are all wrong and we only get a sprinkle!
Quoting zampaz:

Crickets chirped in the shocked silence. The newb cleared this throat and said;
"The message ID can be verified, relevant and official information is contained in the bulletin, including all areas affected, including the coordinate references..."
the crickets resumed.

OK
1525. MrMixon
Yet ANOTHER fire in Colorado, this one in El Paso County, has already claimed at least one modest mountain cabin...



The Black Forest fire is only 15 acres, but is exhibiting "aggressive fire behavior" and is located in a fairly well-developed mountain area. Going to be a long night for some in Colorado.

That makes at least three active fires across the state right now, all of them sparked within the past 48 hours.

Folks interested in following these stories can use this link to the Denver Channel. They seem to be doing the best job covering the fires today.

The Denver Channel Wildfire Coverage
Quoting Astrometeor:
Post #1509


This includes me, which makes sense because it has been fairly sunny most of the day.

The text:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112134Z - 112330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SVR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED SE OF A SFC
WIND-SHIFT AXIS THAT TRAILS SW OF A 1009-MB SFC LOW ANALYZED 35 WSW
APN...AND W OF A LAKE-HURON-AIDED SHALLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO THE SFC LOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INVOF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED. WEAK TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP MLCAPE VALUES
BELOW 1000 J/KG...AND PREVENT PARTICULARLY ROBUST UPDRAFTS FROM
EVOLVING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONG MID-LEVEL
NWLY/S -- IN EXCESS OF 45 KT AS SAMPLED BY APX/DTX VWP DATA -- WILL
SUPPORT STRONG DEEP SHEAR POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS...PERHAPS ATTAINING WEAK SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE ANY TORNADO/SVR WIND
POTENTIAL. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/11/2013


Posted by Angela Fritz
1528. barbamz
Quoting Luisport:
OFF TOPIC: Gregor Peter%u200F@L0gg0l35 min
RT @nchrysoloras: Greeks lose access to @BBCWorld & @DeutscheWelle. Both were transmitted via now-dead ERT @ISNJH


It's probably because of this:

EuroNews Video: Shock in Greece at imminent closure of public broadcaster ERT
11/06 17:18 CET

They've waisted wayyy too much tax money to pay wayyy too many public tv employees. Of course the immediate shut down of the whole public tv is very bitter for a lot of people.

Edit: To keep it somehow on topic: This is why I've posted some days ago that I'm glad that the public weather service of Greece is still available. They've got some good products f.e. on SAL, especially for Europe, check it out with the panels:

Link
1529. Patrap

918
WUUS53 KUNR 112214
SVRUNR
WYC005-112315-
/O.NEW.KUNR.SV.W.0120.130611T2214Z-130611T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
414 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...

* UNTIL 515 PM MDT

* AT 410 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF
SAVAGETON...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF WRIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN GILLETTE AND
WRIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 10527 4410 10508 4404 10508 4374 10571
4386 10583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 232DEG 24KT 4392 10558

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SCHILD







MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...

VALID 112206Z - 112330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
WW 296. MONITORING FOR DOWNSTREAM TSTM DEVELOPMENT S/SEWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND LIKELY WW.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS EXIST ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF WW
296 FROM ERN MT INTO NRN WY. WITH A NARROW PLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE BUOYANCY TO THE N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT...MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS FAR
SERN MT INTO NERN WY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS ROBUST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.

FARTHER S/SE ALONG THE DRYLINE...TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY AGITATED ACROSS SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.
MODIFIED RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR IS
UNCAPPED HERE WITH MLCIN GREATLY INCREASING WITH ERN EXTENT INMOST
OF NEB. STILL...A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION INVOF THE WY/NEB/SD BORDER. IF THIS BECOMES
EVIDENT...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS QUITE LIKELY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 06/11/2013


ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...T FX...

LAT...LON 44100707 45030849 45940907 46500898 47300837 47440676
47310630 46280512 44690327 44090236 43170185 42090167
41360217 41100293 41060363 42030403 42980504 43680644
44100707
NCEP Production Suite Operational on WCOSS Effective
July 16, 2013, with Live Testing June 25 and
July 2



Excerpt:


Effective Tuesday July 16, 2013, with the 1200 Universal
Coordinated Time (UTC) cycle, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will transition the NCEP
Production Suite to the new Weather and Climate Operational
Supercomputing System (WCOSS). All models and applications in
the NCEP Production Suite will be run on the WCOSS and
disseminated from those systems.
Quoting Doppler22:

Posted by Angela Fritz
Quoting barbamz:


It's probably because of this:

EuroNews Video: Shock in Greece at imminent closure of public broadcaster ERT
11/06 17:18 CET

They've waisted wayyy too many tax money to pay wayyy too many public tv employees. Of course the immediate shut down of the whole public tv is very bitter for a lot of people.
MERKEL'S FAULT!!!
1534. MrMixon
Geez, live helicopter video from the Black Forest fire shows multiple homes burning... this fire started in a BAD place and conditions aren't expected to improve anytime soon:







Click the images above to go to the live stream.

EDIT: They are reporting the fire started just about 2.5 hours ago and has already claimed at least 10 structures/homes.
1535. barbamz
Quoting Luisport:
MERKEL'S FAULT!!!


Yes, we germans are the bad guys, of course ;-)

One question please, Luisport, in which country do you live? I'm really interested to know.
1536. SLU
Quoting SLU:


That is very long range (Over 300 hours) so I suppose is another system that develops GFS.
Quoting SLU:
I hate that high.Oh look some blue thing in the gulf with multiple circles.Wonder what it is?
Quoting Doppler22:

Posted by Angela Fritz



Gorgeous. Now there is a new permanent tinyurl for it:

http://tinyurl.com/purtytwisted
Quoting SLU:


In terms of the chatter about the flip flop with the euro and CFS models possibly showing a rather hostile environment for storms I don't look at the models that far out because they are not accurate. Anything beyond 6-7 days is a guess...at best. Conditions overall appear to be favorable for an above average season...perhaps even hyperactive. With ENSO-neutral conditions leaning toward La Nina conditions dominating the entire hurricane season, I see no reason why we shouldn't see at least above average activity. However, concerning June and July, those two months do not historically see a lot of TC activity...even during hyperactive seasons. We might see two more TCs total between now and the end of July, which is fairly normal.
1541. gator23
the flair up of t-storms near the bay of Campeche needs to be watched. It has some decent vort associated with it
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
456 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BIG HORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...
CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING...

* UNTIL 545 PM MDT

* AT 450 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF SHERIDAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST SOUTH OF LEITER MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL INCLUDE...
CLEARMONT...SHERIDAN...DECKER...QUIETUS...ARVADA.. .PARKMAN...
LEITER...WYARNO AND TONGUE RIVER RESERVOIR PK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4463 10687 4482 10711 4517 10685 4514 10626
4499 10626 4499 10602 4457 10601
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 232DEG 5KT 4470 10689

$$

TESAR
Also, we have ONE red blotch on the map so far.

1546. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is very long range (Over 300 hours) so I suppose is another system that develops GFS.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate that high.Oh look some blue thing in the gulf with multiple circles.Wonder what it is?


Well now that the EURO has come on board we should cast an eye on the Gulf in the coming days.
1547. Patrap
<
Wyoming set some new high temperature records yesterday, with 3 new records and one tied record in the Riverton, WY area. NWS source


Meanwhile, Nashville, TN is two weeks overdue for our first 90 degree day. The airport reached 92, but at my house (away from the heat-island of downtown) we reached 87. Perhaps tomorrow we will break the barrier, forecast calls for 95.
.
The HWRF is getting an upgrade next month, around July 16:

-- Implement HWRF GSI V3.7 one-way hybrid EnKF-3DVAR data
assimilation with GDAS forecasts as first guess and 80-member GFS
EnKF forecasts for ensemble covariances, assimilation of all
conventional data and provision to assimilate real-time inner-
core TDR/FL/SFMR/Dropsonde recon datasets
-- Improve storm size correction in the vortex initialization,
modified filter domain and use GFS vortex when the storm is
weaker than 16 m/s
-- Upgrade the nest movement algorithm using 9 parameters based
on NCEP tracker
-- Redesign nest-parent interpolations for improved treatment of
nest boundaries
-- Increase frequency of physics calls from 180 sec. to 30 sec.
and increase size of the third domain from 5-deg x 5.5-deg to
6-deg x 6.5-deg
-- Modify GFS PBL to include variable critical Richardson number
-- Fix bug for GFDL radiation
-- Remove flux truncation from HWRF to POM
-- Improve HWRF Unified Post Processor to reduce domain
discontinuities in the simulated satellite imagery products

Link
Quoting SLU:


Well now that the EURO has come on board we should cast an eye on the Gulf in the coming days.

What the 18z GFS is showing and what the 00z ECMWF run from this morning showed (it doesn't show a cyclone anymore) are two different entities. Note the timeframe.
1553. SLU
Quoting hurricane23:


In terms of the chatter about the flip flop with the euro and CFS models possibly showing a rather hostile environment for storms I don't look at the models that far out because they are not accurate. Anything beyond 6-7 days is a guess...at best. Conditions overall appear to be favorable for an above average season...perhaps even hyperactive. With ENSO-neutral conditions leaning toward La Nina conditions dominating the entire hurricane season, I see no reason why we shouldn't see at least above average activity. However, concerning June and July, those two months do not historically see a lot of TC activity...even during hyperactive seasons. We might see two more TCs total between now and the end of July, which is fairly normal.


Kind of funny hearing some bloggers calling the season a bust in the second week of June. The only negative factor that could limit the season is an El Nino and that's highly unlikely at this point regardless of the models. I'm still expecting 15 - 19, 6 - 10 and 3 - 5 which I estimated since early April. Although the MDR has cooled since, so too has the Equatorial Pacific which means that El Nino is even more unlikely now than back in April. This should increase confidence that we will see busy year. Also, if this "doomsday" ridging remains in place in A-S-O, the actual number of storms this year will be immaterial.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
1554. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What the 18z GFS is showing and what the 00z ECMWF run from this morning showed (it doesn't show a cyclone anymore) are two different entities. Note the timeframe.


Yeah I realise. The mere fact that they have been throwing bread crumbs of late means we should at least watch the area as the next couple of waves arrive.
Quoting SLU:
Texas is overdue I'm sorry not trying to sound like all doom and gloom, but at the very least they are overdue for a Tropical Storm. Trough setting up over the Ohio River Valley is not a good set-up either.
It's interesting to play with different parameters and compare them to previous seasons. The main thing that sticks out to me from a 500mb height perspective is the arctic. During the 2010-2012 period, the region was dominated by a ton of high pressure; this year sees a lot of troughing and below-average heights.

That high south of Newfoundland is also interesting.

2012 and 2013 are nearly polar opposites of one another. High pressure is where low pressure was last year, low pressure is where high pressure was.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. ONLY A SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
1558. barbamz
Quoting barbamz:


Yes, we germans are the bad guys, of course ;-)

One question please, Luisport, in which country do you live? I'm really interested to know.


Blog is slow right now. So I may add something on this off topic stuff as Luisport didn't respond until now.
I've just read on EuroNews that f.e. the singer Maria Farantouri (the "Joan Baez of the Mediterranean world") protested against austerity in Greece which now has caused a sudden shut down of public TV. I've been in Greece for about a dozen times; it's somehow my favourite country. I know the language a little bit, something about it's history and it's great music, and I'm so sorry for them, though I've experienced some of their issues with spending money as well. And, by the way, they've got exciting weather there.
Last year I've spent many months on the internet to figure out who is the real culprit for the economical problems in (southern) Europe: Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal (where I guess our Luisport is from) - all those are really great (!) countries I've visited several times, and I appreciate and admire them a lot (pics from my last travels, including Lisbon in Portugal, are on my WU-photos). I've tried to learn the language of those countries, but - I have to confess - Portuguese was a bit too difficult for me. Moreover I've failed to get a clear insight in these economic issues, and the specialists somehow fail as well; everyone seems to have a different opinion.
So I just want to greet Greece and Portugal, which has a really hard time too, as I know.

Here is a weather related song from the above mentioned great singer Maria Farantouri from Greece (I've chosen a video with english subheads): "To the little north wind" (which now may blow in some regions of the US as well):

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's interesting to play with different parameters and compare them to previous seasons. The main thing that sticks out to me from a 500mb height perspective is the arctic. During the 2010-2012 period, the region was dominated by a ton of high pressure; this year sees a lot of troughing and below-average heights.

That high south of Newfoundland is also interesting.

2012 and 2013 are nearly polar opposites of one another. High pressure is where low pressure was last year, low pressure is where high pressure was.


Based on this looks like some of the storms that come off the coast of Africa will recurve early and the ones that miss that weakness will be the long track Cape-Verde Hurricanes. I think it is too early to know what the pattern will be like come the peak of the hurricane season. Just be prepared and have your supplies ready just in case, that's pretty much all I can say about that.
@barbamz

From what I have heard about Greece's financial woes-is that they go back thousands of years. Used to be (when the Parthenon was still standing) in times of financial stress, they would strip Athena of her gold and use it to pay off debt. In good times, they would reapply the gold.

To bad they can't do that today.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Texas is overdue I'm sorry not trying to sound like all doom and gloom, but at the very least they are overdue for a Tropical Storm. Trough setting up over the Ohio River Valley is not a good set-up either.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Texas is overdue I'm sorry not trying to sound like all doom and gloom, but at the very least they are overdue for a Tropical Storm. Trough setting up over the Ohio River Valley is not a good set-up either.
Well since Texas has had rains recently (and flooding at times) the air shouldn't be so dry.Perhaps the Texas death ridge won't take any more victims (T.C's that is)
1562. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's interesting to play with different parameters and compare them to previous seasons. The main thing that sticks out to me from a 500mb height perspective is the arctic. During the 2010-2012 period, the region was dominated by a ton of high pressure; this year sees a lot of troughing and below-average heights.

That high south of Newfoundland is also interesting.

2012 and 2013 are nearly polar opposites of one another. High pressure is where low pressure was last year, low pressure is where high pressure was.




... and notice how the anomalous heights have been forced further south because of the troughing in the polar regions in 2013. The overall pattern is the mirror opposite of 2012 and at the very least we should expect to see totally different storm tracks this year relative to last year's tendency of recurvature.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Texas is overdue I'm sorry not trying to sound like all doom and gloom, but at the very least they are overdue for a Tropical Storm. Trough setting up over the Ohio River Valley is not a good set-up either.
I wouldn't say that,they were Affetced by Tropical Storm Hermine in 2010.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What the 18z GFS is showing and what the 00z ECMWF run from this morning showed (it doesn't show a cyclone anymore) are two different entities. Note the timeframe.
Maybe the 18Z is an outlier.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate that high.Oh look some blue thing in the gulf with multiple circles.Wonder what it is?
It's a tropical system silly.
Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. ONLY A SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN


Yep, just saw the yellow crayon there
93E remains disorganized but slow development is expected. Conditions appear quite favorable for this system in the next couple of days with low to moderate shear and warm waters. The main inhibitor I see is the large area of dry air to the northwest.

Off weather. ..sorry.

There is an important soccer game about to start which the entire Hispanic world is watching. .
Costa Rica vs Mexico

Let's go players! !! Wanna see some exciting match tonight.

The game is being hosted in The Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, .Mexico
When is the main event supposed to arrive to Moderate Risk area? I do understand it's a mostly thunderstorm event though, but I'm dying to track storms with GR2Analyst.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Off weather. ..sorry.

Thete is an important soccer game about to start which the entire Hispanic world is watching. .
Costa Rica vs Mexico

Let's go players! !! Wanna see some exciting match tonight.

The game is being hosted in The Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, .Mexico
All good I don't think it will hurt for one post, by the way game 3 of the NBA Finals is on tonight as well. So how is the weather up your way, you're in New York right?
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I wouldn't say that,they were Affetced by Tropical Storm Hermine in 2010.
Oh man thanks for pointing that one out I totally forgot about Hermine, I was thinking the last storm was Ike.
1574. pcola57
RE: Post# 1569..

First let me say I won't quote an obvious troll..
By popping in with political rehtoric with absolutely no credibility is laughable..
If this is the best you can do for a first post, then I will soon be tossing you into the ignore bin where you will have simular comrades in arms to share you own echo's..

Also by plagerizing a credible bloggers handle is pretty low IMO..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
All good I don't think it will hurt for one post, by the way game 3 of the NBA Finals is on tonight as well. So how is the weather up your way, you're in New York right?


He used to be up there in NY/CT, but about a month ago moved down to Atlanta to take up a job down there.
EP, 93, 2013061200, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1092W, 20, 1009, DB,
Looks like that high isn't going to be as strong as they were saying even yesterday.

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1116 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JUN 14 2013 - 12Z TUE JUN 18 2013


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF A VERY
ACTIVE, BAROCLINIC REGIME FOR EARLY SUMMER ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. RELIED ON THE MASS FIELDS OF THE MOST
RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC TEMPLATE, WITH
THAT MEAN HAVING SHOWN THE STRONGEST RUN-T0-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE
GUIDANCE. DEEPENED THE SURFACE WAVE NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK
TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF STRENGTH DAY 3, FIGURING THAT IT
WOULD GET AN EXTRA KICK FROM THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROCESS. A
RETROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD, WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE PULLING BACK TO THE ROCKIES, AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RECEDING OFFSHORE.

EXPECT THREE MAIN FOCUSES FOR RAINFALL. THE FIRST WILL BE THE
MONSOON AROUND THE SMALLER THAN NORMAL RADIUS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH INTO WEST TEXAS. THE SECOND WILL BE THE CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
SYNOPTIC COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY, AND
EVENTUALLY THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE THIRD WILL BE THE NEW
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST AS IT EDGES ONSHORE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
WYC011-120115-
/O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-130612T0115Z/
CROOK WY-
618 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CROOK
COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 616 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KEYHOLE
RESERVOIR...OR 26 MILES WEST OF SUNDANCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.
EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CARLILE AROUND 630 PM MDT.
DEVILS TOWER JUNCTION AROUND 640 PM MDT.
DEVILS TOWER AROUND 650 PM MDT.
HULETT AROUND 705 PM MDT.
ALVA AROUND 715 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF ON OR NEAR KEYHOLE RESERVOIR...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE
TO SHELTER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. BOATS CAN BE SWAMPED BY LARGE CAPSIZING
WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE
SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 10479 4467 10437 4429 10491 4437 10505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 216DEG 27KT 4440 10489

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH


$$

SCHILD
Quoting Patrap:
Republican demands Obama apologize for funding climate change research

In a speech on the House floor Tuesday, Representative Jim Bridenstine (R-OK) called on President Barack Obama to apologize to the people of Oklahoma for funding climate change research.

The freshman congressman claimed global temperatures stopped rising a decade ago. He said variations in the Earth's temperature were the result of solar output and ocean cycles.

Even climate change alarmists admit the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S. and the number of tornado touchdowns have been on a slow decline for over 100 years, Bridenstine said.

But here is what we absolutely know, he continued. We know that Oklahoma will have tornadoes when the cold jet stream meets the warm Gulf air, and we also know that this President spends 30 times as much money on global warming research as he does on weather forecasting and warning. For this gross misallocation, the people of Oklahoma are ready to accept the President's apology and I intend to submit legislation to fix this.





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...

VALID 120023Z - 120200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED ISOLATED THUS
FAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION EVOLVING EWD
INVOF MT/WY/SD BORDER. NEW WW IS ANTICIPATED BY 01Z TO INCLUDE PARTS
OF WRN SD.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE BECOME
CONFINED TO CAMPBELL/CROOK COUNTIES IN WY. THIS CONVECTION IS WHERE
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ELYS HAS BEEN NOTED IN RAPID
CITY VWP DATA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF NEAR 60 F SURFACE DEW
POINTS. 00Z RAP RAOB SAMPLED A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 680 MB WHICH
HAS MITIGATED DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. BUT MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHERE MLCIN IS MINIMAL UPSTREAM WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...SEVERE WIND AND A TORNADO AS NERN WY CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD.

..GRAMS.. 06/12/2013


ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...R IW...

LAT...LON 47500654 46100414 45200269 44750165 43490155 43040243
42900322 43220501 43750586 44620630 45610708 46440768
47210804 47500654
Starting day 6 showing something wave/trough moving through the Yucatan. Similar to the models. Something to watch for anyway.

Most of the global models remain enthusiastic about the MJO reaching the Atlantic by the final week of June.

Development of 93E seems unlikely to me due to very dry air ahead of it, despite the fact that shear is low. It will also be heading into cooler waters before too long.

Quoting pcola57:
RE: Post# 1569..

First let me say I won't quote an obvious troll..
By popping in with political rehtoric with absolutely no credibility is laughable..
If this is the best you can do for a first post, then I will soon be tossing you into the ignore bin where you will have simular comrades in arms to share you own echo's..

Also by plagerizing a credible bloggers handle is pretty low IMO..

Thanks for speaking up Mr. Pcola
Quoting GTcooliebai:
All good I don't think it will hurt for one post, by the way game 3 of the NBA Finals is on tonight as well. So how is the weather up your way, you're in New York right?


Im in Atlanta, Georgia now... on the northern suburbs. .
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Development of 93E seems unlikely to me due to very dry air ahead of it, despite the fact that shear is low. It will also be heading into cooler waters before too long.



Global models seem to agree with that as none of them are showing any significant development of this.
1587. yoboi
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yep, just saw the yellow crayon there



this season needs to get going if not my numbers will be off....
Storms moving into South Dakota.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Development of 93E seems unlikely to me due to very dry air ahead of it, despite the fact that shear is low. It will also be heading into cooler waters before too long.


I agree. Relative humidity values are sufficient for the time being, but are forecast to become atrocious in 36 hours and on.

700-500 MB RH 67 68 63 62 57 54 52 50 45 43 39 37 38

When the SHIPS gives it a 4% chance of rapid intensification you know there's a problem.
Quoting yoboi:



this season needs to get going if not my numbers will be off....


Hmmm.yeah...about that.
.um...

Big hard time
I gotta have at least one winner in my chart by now.
Premature statement but worth of commenting.
Sorry if already posted...


There have been 3 tornadoes confirmed in Maryland from the storms yesterday.
1593. yoboi
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hmmm.yeah...about that.
.um...

Big hard time


I was thinking a 2005 repeat but starting to think I jumped the gun and made a wrong pick.....
Quoting yoboi:


I was thinking a 2005 repeat but starting to think I jumped the gun and made a wrong pick.....

I suggest examining the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.

First named storm - July 31
Quoting yoboi:



this season needs to get going if not my numbers will be off....


You still have plenty of season left, remember June only averages 1 storm every 2 years.


Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (10%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The HWRF is getting an upgrade next month, around July 16:

-- Implement HWRF GSI V3.7 one-way hybrid EnKF-3DVAR data
assimilation with GDAS forecasts as first guess and 80-member GFS
EnKF forecasts for ensemble covariances, assimilation of all
conventional data and provision to assimilate real-time inner-
core TDR/FL/SFMR/Dropsonde recon datasets
-- Improve storm size correction in the vortex initialization,
modified filter domain and use GFS vortex when the storm is
weaker than 16 m/s
-- Upgrade the nest movement algorithm using 9 parameters based
on NCEP tracker
-- Redesign nest-parent interpolations for improved treatment of
nest boundaries
-- Increase frequency of physics calls from 180 sec. to 30 sec.
and increase size of the third domain from 5-deg x 5.5-deg to
6-deg x 6.5-deg
-- Modify GFS PBL to include variable critical Richardson number
-- Fix bug for GFDL radiation
-- Remove flux truncation from HWRF to POM
-- Improve HWRF Unified Post Processor to reduce domain
discontinuities in the simulated satellite imagery products

Link


Most important part:

The model has been extensively tested with a combination of all
the upgrades listed above for a 3-year sample of cases. The
results showed impressive and remarkable results.
For Atlantic
basin track, the HWRF is improved by ~5-15% and now appears
competitive with the GFS. For intensity, the model reduces errors
by ~15%, has demonstrated skill greater than that of the NHC
official forecast and greater than that of the statistical
models.


2004 was a late starter and then it was hurricanes back to back to back...we're not doing that again I hope!
Quoting Astrometeor:


Good afternoon Baha.

Yeah, someone here this morning noticed that area and wondered if the NHC would make it an AOI. 'Bout an hour later, they did.
Hey, and we managed without Grothar!

I guess he has gotten bloggers well trained as blobometers...
Quoting Astrometeor:


You still have plenty of season left, remember June only averages 1 storm every 2 years.


If 2012 kept it's rate of cyclogenesis since the burst in June...it could have challenged 2005
TA13 please come to weatherchat!!!Lol
Quoting stormchaser19:
TA13 please come to weatherchat!!!Lol


I thought he would've noticed you two sitting all alone there by now, lol.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, and we managed without Grothar!

I guess he has gotten bloggers well trained as blobometers...


I wish he'd show up...kind of feels like the dog got lost.
anyway, here's the big blocking high
I see the SPC dropped the Moderate risk for today... i'm not surprised
Quoting Chicklit:


2004 was a late starter and then it was hurricanes back to back to back...we're not doing that again I hope!


It's interesting the similarities of 2004 and 2007 with this year for june!!!.
2004

2007

2013


Both Bad year in terms of trajectories!!!
Quoting Doppler22:

Posted by Angela Fritz
This would make a BOSS screensaver...

On slow season starts... don't forget we've had years where August AND September have had more than 5 storms each, and some years when the total for those 2 months exceeds 14... If you are still scratching your head on October 11 and wondering where all the storms are, that's when you figure you had a bust forecast.

I personally don't see less than 16 storms forming this year, but I don't expect to see too many of them before the second half of July.

As of 5 mins ago... adding 2 more entries now...
Quoting help4u:
Climate changes daily just as our tax money does from us to global warming fanatics.Ask ALGORE.

Thanks for that money, btw. My "Global Warming Fanatic's" check still isn't adequate to provide me with that Bugatti I've had my eye on. I'll have to save up two years of checks for that.

Still, it's not bad money.

This could very likely be the beginning of the mesocyclone thunderstorm complex as it is beginning to show signs of bowing out and acelerating eastward into Western South Dakota.
 

We're gonna be playin "Beat the Trough."
NEC013-165-120230-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-130612T0230Z/
BOX BUTTE NE-SIOUX NE-
803 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SIOUX AND SOUTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 758 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF
FLAHERTYS CORNER...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KILPATRICK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHEYENNE.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 10310 4200 10319 4210 10367 4232 10361
4232 10343 4230 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 273DEG 27KT 4217 10342

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
1613. Dakster
Quoting BahaHurican:
This would make a BOSS screensaver...

On slow season starts... don't forget we've had years where August AND September have had more than 5 storms each, and some years when the total for those 2 months exceeds 14... If you are still scratching your head on October 11 and wondering where all the storms are, that's when you figure you had a bust forecast.

I personally don't see less than 16 storms forming this year, but I don't expect to see too many of them before the second half of July.



There is a hurricane/ts average chart that Patrap (and others) post... It illustrates that June / July are not the active months. Middle of August to Middle of September is. (approximately -)
Quoting yoboi:



this season needs to get going if not my numbers will be off....
don't worry the window will open and when it does it will be likely one right after another they are coming we just have to wait
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry the window will open and when it does it will be likely one right after another they are coming we just have to wait


Im happy to see the REAL Keeper again
Quoting Civicane49:
93E remains disorganized but slow development is expected. Conditions appear quite favorable for this system in the next couple of days with low to moderate shear and warm waters. The main inhibitor I see is the large area of dry air to the northwest.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. ONLY A SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
1617. Patrap
The "Chart"

1618. nigel20
Quoting Chicklit:


I wish he'd show up...kind of feels like the dog got lost.
anyway, here's the big blocking high

Good evening friends!

This would not be good for the Caribbean and central America...especially if we have thee same blocking high in August and September.
Rainfall for June so far in Boston MA 6.11". The record for June is 11.99". Heavy rain forecast for later this week. Chance of setting a new record this month 1/4.


Rainfall for June so far in New York City - Central Park is 7.96". Record for the month is 10.27". Heavy rain forecast later this week. Chance of setting a new record this month 3/4.
Hail is getting bigger with this storm.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
815 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FALL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHERN SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM MDT

* AT 813 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
SLIM BUTTE...OR 25 MILES WEST OF PINE RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SLIM BUTTE AROUND 835 PM MDT.
OGLALA AROUND 845 PM MDT.
PINE RIDGE AROUND 900 PM MDT.
MANDERSON AROUND 910 PM MDT.
WOUNDED KNEE AROUND 915 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 10322 4329 10231 4299 10227 4300 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 266DEG 29KT 4304 10303

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH


$$

SCHILD
Made a quick update in the tropics for those who are interested:

93E unlikely to develop in the eastern Pacific
Denver had strong late season snowstorms and now reaching temps in the triple digits?
I wonder if they enjoyed spring
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Denver had strong late season snowstorms and now reaching temps in the triple digits?
I wonder if they enjoyed spring


I see they sprung straight from winter to summer.
Nashville and Atlanta.reached over 90F today... I sweated today honestly.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Nashville and Atlanta.reached over 90F today... I sweated today honestly.


Airport is a heat island. Countryside around never made it. Today's high: 87.
1626. nigel20
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry the window will open and when it does it will be likely one right after another they are coming we just have to wait

Agreed. 2004 didn't get it's first named storm until July 31st, but it finish the season with 15 storms...2010 was also pretty slow after hurricane Alex...it (2010) had over 30 consecutive days of tropical activity after hurricane Danielle in mid August.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Airport is a heat island. Countryside around never made it. Today's high: 87.
TWC says Nash got to 93 today, 96 tomorrow
Idk who's trolling here...lol
93E:

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TWC says Nash got to 93 today, 96 tomorrow
Idk who's trolling here...lol


Where'd they get 93? Airport measured 92, but with the city heat effect, I would discount it a couple of degrees. I got 87 from my thermometer.
Long range GFS showed some intense wind and rain in the Caribbean and then slammed it into the Yuc.

Here we go Baby...
1632. DDR
Hello nigel,can you send me a link to the venezuelan radar from your blog?tia
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Long range GFS showed some intense wind and rain in the Caribbean and then slammed it into the Yuc.
Tropical System.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Where'd they get 93? Airport measured 92, but with the city heat effect, I would discount it a couple of degrees. I got 87 from my thermometer.


Ok give me a sec, Im going to call TWC customer service to demand and explanation about your claim...actually, Im going to go and ask myself since the building is locatedabout 5 miles from my location.

How unprofessional from them right?
1636. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
The "Chart"



Thanks Patrap... I knew you would come thru!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ok give me a sec, Im going to call TWC customer service to demand and explanation about your claim...actually, Im going to go and ask myself since the building is locatedabout 5 miles from my location.

How unprofessional from them right?


Can you tell them to do a better selection of programming, perhaps shows that are actually related to the weather and enjoyable? Reel Rivals is neither.
Yagi continues to weaken south of Japan:

Quoting Astrometeor:


Can you tell them to do a better selection of programming, perhaps shows that are actually related to the weather and enjoyable? Reel Rivals is neither.


Ok... I'll tell them that too.
They can come to the WU main blog and check your comment for verification in case they doubt about my credibility.
2004:



2005:




2010:



This year:



2004 seems to emphasize the fact that it doesn't matter what the sea surface temperature anomalies are as long as they're not terribly below-average and we have the Atlantic tripole signature. It managed to have a pretty strong Cape Verde season.
1641. nigel20
Quoting DDR:
Hello nigel,can you send me a link to the venezuelan radar from your blog?tia

Sorry I took so long DDR.
Here's the link:
INAMEH
The PDO came in positive, albeit only very slightly, for the month of May.

Quote:
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08
1643. nigel20
93E
Anymore word on the potential derecho that could be impacting the Great Lakes and the Mid-Atlantic?
By M. Alex Johnson, staff writer, NBC News

Wildfires fueled by hot, gusty winds were burning hundreds of acres and forcing evacuations Tuesday in three different parts of Colorado, a large part of which was under a red flag warning for extreme wildfire risk.

Fire agencies said their resources were being stretched critically thin as they tried to battle the fires simultaneously.

About 3,600 people had been evacuated from about 1,250 homes northeast of Colorado Springs after a smoky, fast-moving fire broke out at about 2 p.m. (4 p.m. ET) near Black Forest Regional Park, the El Paso County Sheriff's Office said. Residents of 300 more homes were asked to evacuate voluntarily.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/11/189071 98-multiple-fires-force-evacuation-of-thousands-in -colorado
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The PDO came in positive, albeit only very slightly, for the month of May.



You think it go negative again?
Quoting weatherbow:
Anymore word on the potential derecho that could be impacting the Great Lakes and the Mid-Atlantic?


SPC still at Moderate risk, but we shall have to see how the storms fire up tomorrow, today was a bust for t-storms.
Nice supercell structure on GR2Analyst. This is for Nebraska storm.

1649. help4u
Extreme weather alert!Going on 8 years now without major hurricane hitting United States !Longest in history of nation.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You think it go negative again?

The value is positive but I'm not so sure we could consider it to actually be. Waters are shifted farther east than usual for a negative PDO, yes, but still not to the extent of a positive PDO. The waters from 160W to 140E are warm as well, whereas we would want them cool in a positive PDO.

Still negative I'd say, just shifted farther east. That's a bad pattern for the USA.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
938 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GARDEN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...
SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM MDT

* AT 934 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ANTIOCH...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANTIOCH...LAKESIDE...ELLSWORTH...BINGHAM...MILES LAKE...TRALNOR
LAKE...SNOW LAKE...HERMAN LAKE...MUMPER...PATTERSON LAKE...KENNEDY
LAKE...WILD HORSE FLATS...BRITTON LAKE...JERRY LAKE...KINCAID LAKE
AND FINNEGAN LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 132.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS IN AN
INTERIOR ROOM...A BATHROOM OR CLOSET...OR BASEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 10204 4210 10204 4209 10201 4206 10200
4201 10201 4200 10207 4172 10207 4177 10268
4199 10269 4201 10270 4208 10271 4209 10275
4216 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 270DEG 29KT 4201 10270

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH


$$

SPRINGER
Just heard about Gro. If you, somehow, are reading this, I really hope you get healthy again and see you again on here posting about weather that we all love. We miss your friendliness and warmth! Here to hoping you get better, Gro!
Quoting help4u:
Extreme weather alert!Going on 8 years now without major hurricane hitting United States !Longest in history of nation.


I am curious. Why do you think that hurricanes only hit the U. S. and that they have to be a major hurricane if they do????
Plus there was a 9 year stretch from 1860-1869 so it's not the longest stretch either.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am curious. Why do you think that hurricanes only hit the U. S. and that they have to be a major hurricane if they do????


Did I miss him saying that, he didn't say that in the particular post you are quoting?

I want to know why he thinks 8 years is longest in nation. We only have about 60 years of reliable records.
Look at 2010. That year only had 2 storms that formed in the Atlantic before August 1 and that year still managed to squeeze out 19 named systems, 12 hurricanes, 5 majors. So you do make a good point. Fortunately, the US was lucky that year since we had a trough parked off the east coast that recurved many systems out to sea, and the ones that snuck underneath through the Caribbean ended up going into Central America/Mexico due to a strong Texas death ridge. We may not have exactly the same setup this year to be as lucky, but time will only tell.

Quoting hurricane23:


In terms of the chatter about the flip flop with the euro and CFS models possibly showing a rather hostile environment for storms I don't look at the models that far out because they are not accurate. Anything beyond 6-7 days is a guess...at best. Conditions overall appear to be favorable for an above average season...perhaps even hyperactive. With ENSO-neutral conditions leaning toward La Nina conditions dominating the entire hurricane season, I see no reason why we shouldn't see at least above average activity. However, concerning June and July, those two months do not historically see a lot of TC activity...even during hyperactive seasons. We might see two more TCs total between now and the end of July, which is fairly normal.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just heard about Gro. If you, somehow, are reading this, I really hope you get healthy again and see you again on here posting about weather that we all love. We miss your friendliness and warmth! Here to hoping you get better, Gro!

What's up with Grothar?
Quoting Astrometeor:


Did I miss him saying that, he didn't say that in the particular post you are quoting?

I want to know why he thinks 8 years is longest in nation. We only have about 60 years of reliable records.


We have talked before. Help4U is referencing that AGW has the potential to increase hurricane intensity and he is saying that it has not happened for nearly eight years by using U. S. landfalls only. We in the U. S. may like think that we are the world, but we are not.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We have talked before. Help4U is referencing that AGW has the potential to increase hurricane intensity and he is saying that it has not happened for nearly eight years by using U. S. landfalls only. We in the U. S. may like think that we are the world, but we are not.


ah, thanks for the clarification.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

What's up with Grothar?


I can tell you in chat if you want.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120412Z - 120615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
GUST IS POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEWD FROM
N-CNTRL NEB.

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CNTRL NEB...WITH A CLUSTER RECENTLY
INTENSIFYING JUST N OF BBW. MODIFIED 00Z LBF/OAX RAOBS AND NAM/RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MLCIN IS VERY HIGH...WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY RESULTING FROM ELEVATED PARCELS ROOTED WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO REACH THE LFC. STEEP
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
WITHIN MULTICELL CLUSTERS. SEVERE WIND RISK WILL TEND TO BE
LOCALIZED AND PERHAPS CONFINED TO COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE HEAT
BURST TYPE SCENARIO.

..GRAMS/HART.. 06/12/2013


ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42089960 42899865 43579712 44059567 43959505 43749484
43289473 42389543 41469743 41219818 41189896 41279951
42089960
Quoting TylerStanfield:

What's up with Grothar?


He had a severe heart attack on May 30.
1663. DDR
Quoting nigel20:

Sorry I took so long DDR.
Here's the link:
INAMEH

thanks nigel but its no good,the radar that is.
1664. sar2401
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ok give me a sec, Im going to call TWC customer service to demand and explanation about your claim...actually, Im going to go and ask myself since the building is locatedabout 5 miles from my location.

How unprofessional from them right?

Bwwahahaha....It's just like the NHC. Why don't they check with us first before issuing updates? I mean, really, isn't this blog the repository of all meteorlogical knowledge? The nerve of them....:-)
1665. MTWX
just stopping in for a minute...

What's y'alls thoughts on the Derecho setup for tomorrow??
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


He had a severe heart attack on May 30.


God bless you GRO, you are very well rspected here and a damn good person to all that ask you questions. I am a heart attack surviror also and I wish you a speedy recovery. Our prayers to you.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


He had a severe heart attack on May 30.

Oh no. I hope he gets better! He was an awesome member to this blog, and I really hope he recovers okay. :/
I'll be back to watching the tropics again soon. Just really hectic right now.
Night everyone.
1669. nigel20
Quoting DDR:

thanks nigel but its no good,the radar that is.

It seems as if it has some reflectivity issues though it usually works in the day.
1670. nigel20
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I'll be back to watching the tropics again soon. Just really hectic right now.
Night everyone.

Have a good night Tyler!
Very tame for a moderate risk day



none of the moderate area seem to have a report of any severe weather during that time of the upgrade
1673. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Did I miss him saying that, he didn't say that in the particular post you are quoting?

I want to know why he thinks 8 years is longest in nation. We only have about 60 years of reliable records.

LOL. Actually, we have way more than 60 years of reliable records. 2013-60=1953. I was seven years old then. I remember it well. We had electricity, cars, airplanes, even TV's. No iPhones or FB though. ;-)Some meteorologists would argue that 1944 is the first year with reliable statistical records, since that was the first year with aircraft recon. Our record of landfalling hurricanes east of the Mississippi goes back to at least 1800, when there were enough settlers living in all the coastal states (with the exception of far south Texas) that a landfalling hurricane would not have gone unnoticed or unreported. Even back then, weatherwise people (which was a signicant minority of the population) knew the difference between a garden variety TS and a major hurricane. The records aren't good enough, in many cases, to allow us to classify a particular storm, but we can tell it was a big one or small one. We are now, by a fair margin, in the longest hurricane drought since 1900. 1900 was the second longest drought, and Galveston broke that drought with the worst hurricane (in terms of death toll) to ever hit the USA. It's probably the longest period since 1870, at least, when the Weather Bureau was established and began collecting records on a nationwide basis. It may even be the longest period since systematic records were kept by people like Ben Franklin and Thomas Jefferson in the 1770's, but there's less certainty of that, since there were only a few scattered Spaniards in south and Central Florida, and they weren't known for keeping good weather records. Whatever the true interval period is, it's a long time, and something which bears investigation.

1674. DDR
Quoting nigel20:

It seems as if it has some reflectivity issues though it usually works in the day.

Alright ill bookmark it then,gn...
@deflitchkid Jacob DeFlitch
Awesome shot of mammatus clouds taken earlier tonight in Alliance, NE

1676. sar2401
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


none of the moderate area seem to have a report of any severe weather during that time of the upgrade

Pretty small and sparsely populated MDT area, so I can't say I'm surprised. Ever since our huge tornado outbreak of 2011, the SPC has done an outstanding job of predicting significant severe weather outbreaks four to six days ahead of the event. They may not get all the borders just right, but they are pretty close. Any time the SPC starts to highlight an area of high probability, something bad is going to happen within or very close to the outlined area. I guess it's like the cone of error for hurricanes. I don't feel any more comfortable if I live 10 miles outside the cone, nor do I feel more comfortable if I live 10 miles outside a highlighted Moderate or High risk area.
@deflitchkid Jacob DeFlitch
Lightning shot in Alliance, NE

1678. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
@deflitchkid Jacob DeFlitch
Awesome shot of mammatus clouds taken earlier tonight in Alliance, NE


Good evening, Aussie. I spent a summer in Grand Island, Nebraska working a job in 1977. Only time I've spent any significant amount of time I've spent on the Plains. I really wouldn't want to live there but, for a weather geek, it's really paradise sometimes.
1679. sar2401
Quoting MTWX:
just stopping in for a minute...

What's y'alls thoughts on the Derecho setup for tomorrow??

I'm not sure we'll see a real derecho but, for Indiana and Ohio in particular, I think there will be a lot of straight line wind damage and, unusually for them, reports of very large hail. With bowing line segments likely, I would think the risk of tornadoes is at least moderate as well. Some areas of PA and WV may see damaging winds as well. Thursday looks like the most likely day to see the same kind of thing in the DC/MD/VA area, although it looks less severe than tomorrow's event.
1680. sar2401
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
By M. Alex Johnson, staff writer, NBC News

Wildfires fueled by hot, gusty winds were burning hundreds of acres and forcing evacuations Tuesday in three different parts of Colorado, a large part of which was under a red flag warning for extreme wildfire risk.

Fire agencies said their resources were being stretched critically thin as they tried to battle the fires simultaneously.

About 3,600 people had been evacuated from about 1,250 homes northeast of Colorado Springs after a smoky, fast-moving fire broke out at about 2 p.m. (4 p.m. ET) �near Black Forest Regional Park, the El Paso County Sheriff's Office said. Residents of 300 more homes were asked to evacuate voluntarily.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/11/189071 98-multiple-fires-force-evacuation-of-thousands-in -colorado


"Territorial State Prison in Cañon City was put on standby to evacuate its roughly 16,000 inmates if needed, authorities said."

Typical resident of Cañon City : "Martha, where did you put the .357 again?"

sar2401, the outbreak tomorrow is looking like it's going to happen and I think your right; we'll see much hail, more wind damage and probably 10-20 tornadoes are not out of the question. Will form into derecho early in the afternoon probably between 2 and 4PM, in my opinion. Going to be an active night into the morning and early afternoon for my neck of the woods here in SC Wisconsin. Looking like tomorrow may be no miss like today, not liking how it's setting up at all.
1682. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Plus there was a 9 year stretch from 1860-1869 so it's not the longest stretch either.

Brian, I don't know where you got your numbers. There were three at least cat 1's in 1860. There was at least one in 1861 that struck the East Coast. No known landfalling hurricanes from 1862 to 1864. There were at least four, possibly five, in 1865. One hurricane hit Matagorda TX in 1866, and a storm which hit New Jersy may have been a weak cat 1 at landfall. At least three, possibly four, hit in 1867. 1868 was amazingly quiet, and only one TS hit the USA. Four hit in 1869, including one of only four cat 3 and higher storms to hit New England.

So, the period of 1860-1869 had a two year period (1862-1864) and one year (1868) with no landfalling hurricanes in the US. That's a fairly typical decade from what I can tell looking at the database. Our seven year drought is probably a record, and certainly is a record for the period from 1900 until today.
Wow, it's empty in here. Not usually this empty this early.
1684. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
sar2401, the outbreak tomorrow is looking like it's going to happen and I think your right; we'll see much hail, more wind damage and probably 10-20 tornadoes are not out of the question. Will form into derecho early in the afternoon probably between 2 and 4PM, in my opinion. Going to be an active night into the morning and early afternoon for my neck of the woods here in SC Wisconsin. Looking like tomorrow may be no miss like today, not liking how it's setting up at all.

The SPC update for tomorrow (today) should be out in a few minutes, and we'll see if the SPC upgrades to a high risk. I rather doubt it, just because there's not quite enough instability and shear, but it will be close. Seems like the risk is greater south of you but you'll be close enough to pay attention for sure.
Ya, for sure. I'm up waiting on it to come out too. I'm very curious what percentages they'll use. Tomorrow is going to be very bad.
1686. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, it's empty in here. Not usually this empty this early.

Just us and the crickets tonight. :-) Looks like the SPC must be pondering the situation, no updates yet.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, it's empty in here. Not usually this empty this early.

I'm still here?

Got a 1600km line of storm currently across Eastern Australia right now.














Wow, SPC just came out with their projections for later today. Looking like this may be extremely dangerous. Right at the cusp of high risk. If it continues to look like this is going to pan out as the SPC sees it, I bet they go to a high risk by late morning. This could well be a billion dollar disaster day shaping up for tomorrow.
Wow AussieStorm, that is a sick line of storms. Like a land cane.
Quoting sar2401:

Brian, I don't know where you got your numbers. There were three at least cat 1's in 1860. There was at least one in 1861 that struck the East Coast. No known landfalling hurricanes from 1862 to 1864. There were at least four, possibly five, in 1865. One hurricane hit Matagorda TX in 1866, and a storm which hit New Jersy may have been a weak cat 1 at landfall. At least three, possibly four, hit in 1867. 1868 was amazingly quiet, and only one TS hit the USA. Four hit in 1869, including one of only four cat 3 and higher storms to hit New England.

So, the period of 1860-1869 had a two year period (1862-1864) and one year (1868) with no landfalling hurricanes in the US. That's a fairly typical decade from what I can tell looking at the database. Our seven year drought is probably a record, and certainly is a record for the period from 1900 until today.

The period Brian posted was in response to periods without major hurricanes.



SPC AC 120602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
VIRGINIA...ERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PA...AND SRN NEW
JERSEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MT AND THE ADJACENT NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. FEATURING A WRN TROUGH...A
CENTRAL RIDGE...AND AN ERN TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD. THE WRN
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MAKE SOME EWD PROGRESS...AS AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF AK. MEANWHILE...AN ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD...EXPANDING WITH TIME AS IT CROSSES
THE ERN U.S. AND REACHES NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SLOWLY
EWD...REACHING ERN MT/CENTRAL WY/CENTRAL UT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT. FARTHER E...A
COMPACT/DEEPENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS OH AND PA
THROUGH THE DAY...AND TO COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT E OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING
THE MORNING...AND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ERN CAROLINAS BY
SUNSET.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...
POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST
DAY 2/THURSDAY -- FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION -- AND LIKELY AN ONGOING MCS -- ARE
EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
REGION INCLUDING MUCH OF PA AND LIKELY WV. WHILE THIS MCS MAY BE
DECAYING AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CLOUDS AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION AND EVENTUAL
LOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD AND THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
COMBINED WITH STRONG UVV FOCUSED INVOF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO REDEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSS
THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
THUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ATTM...THE GREATEST
TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN A ZONE FROM NRN VA/MD/DE NWD
INTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA AND NJ...WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW.

FARTHER S INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN HEIGHTENED WITH THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

FARTHER SW STILL...ACROSS GA AND THE GULF COAST STATES -- AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN/ERN TN -- STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN A
SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED FASHION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MORE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST -- THOUGH STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS. BANDS OF SWD/SEWD MOVING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY EVENING...SEVERE THREAT WILL END ACROSS THIS AREA. SOME
THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THEN WWD INTO
GA/AL/MS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD/SEWD.

...ERN MT AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCE EWD INTO A
DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP -- INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN MT AND ADJACENT NERN WY.
WHILE STRONG CAPPING -- OWING TO THE PRECEDING INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE -- SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
VEERING/SHEAR. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN MT TOWARD WRN SD INTO THE
EVENING...AS A SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH THE JET INCREASING BENEATH FASTER SWLYS ALOFT SPREADING EWD
WITH TIME...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

..GOSS.. 06/12/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0628Z (2:28AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


He had a severe heart attack on May 30.
OMG until now I find out I feel so bad.I hope he gets better he is one of my best friends in this community.If anyone can contact him tell him I wish him the best and I hope he get well soon.
1693. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, SPC just came out with their projections for later today. Looking like this may be extremely dangerous. Right at the cusp of high risk. If it continues to look like this is going to pan out as the SPC sees it, I bet they go to a high risk by late morning. This could well be a billion dollar disaster day shaping up for tomorrow.

Well tomorrow is today. ;-) They would have already gone high risk if the conditions were right. They nudged the 45% hatched area up your way some. It will be a rough day today but I don't see this a billion dollar event.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow AussieStorm, that is a sick line of storms. Like a land cane.

Here is why....

Trough and Cold front.


Loop
Night all, sar2401, hope your right. Fear your not, SPC is known to be fairly conservative with situations like this. They'll often wait for initiation and adjust upward if necessary. I don't remember seeing percentages like this for the at risk area very often over the last ten years. This is gonna be a big one. We'll find out soon enough. Chat with ya tomorrow, stay well and safe all.
1696. sar2401
Quoting Birthmark:

The period Brian posted was in response to periods without major hurricanes.

Still not correct. At least one in 1865 was probably a cat 3. One of the 1867 storms may also have been a cat 3, and the 1869 storm was certainly a cat 3. Even if none of the other storms qualified as major, the correct period would be 1860 to 1868. This is also the longest period with no cat 2 or above hurricanes hitting the USA.
1697. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Night all, sar2401, hope your right. Fear your not, SPC is known to be fairly conservative with situations like this. They'll often wait for initiation and adjust upward if necessary. I don't remember seeing percentages like this for the at risk area very often over the last ten years. This is gonna be a big one. We'll find out soon enough. Chat with ya tomorrow, stay well and safe all.

Good night. Prior to the tornado outbreak of 2011 in Alabama, the SPC had us at high for two days. They really aren't conservative when they have some certainty it's going to be really bad. I don't think this will be a historic outbreak but we'll see.
1698. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm still here?

Got a 1600km line of storm currently across Eastern Australia right now.















Aussie, where are you in relation to those storms? Australia certainly does things in a big way.
Quoting sar2401:

Good night. Prior to the tornado outbreak of 2011 in Alabama, the SPC had us at high for two days. They really aren't conservative when they have some certainty it's going to be really bad. I don't think this will be a historic outbreak but we'll see.


@NWSNashville 22s
The new day 2 convective outlook is just out from the SPC, and they have the slight risk area a little father west

Quoting sar2401:

Aussie, where are you in relation to those storms? Australia certainly does things in a big way.

See the big burst of convection off the coast.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


He had a severe heart attack on May 30.


I can relate, have had 3 Heart Attacks, the first was very bad. Best wish and hopes for a full recovery to Grothar!
Anybody home?
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi13 h
In cool sector, I-80 north in lakes and ne, record low max temps possible as storm passes to south


Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi13 h
ECMWF with sub 29.30 pressure in New York Harbor Friday morning. Summer Noreaster rivals July 3-4,1978
1704. zampaz
Quoting allancalderini:
OMG until now I find out I feel so bad.I hope he gets better he is one of my best friends in this community.If anyone can contact him tell him I wish him the best and I hope he get well soon.

Send Grothar your greetings and wishes to his blog page:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Grothar/comment. html?entrynum=58#commenttop
(I'm still here waiting for DOOM here in N. VA).
Time to feed the cat.
-z
No signs of organization from 93E. Here's my blog on it from earlier.

How shaq said it on TNT HOT HOT HOT!!!!!!! LOL

Good morning

1708. zampaz
Quoting AussieStorm:

See the big burst of convection off the coast.



I'm here:)


june 11th

june 17th
Quoting Civicane49:
No signs of organization from 93E. Here's my blog on it from earlier.

No organization and bookoo dry air around it
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning



Good Day To You!
1712. zampaz
Earlier in the blog comments someone was saying that the SSTs for the tropics are cooler than normal so far this year. Do the SST's usually reach their maximum around sept 01? Just curious, and some of you seem kind of bored at the moment. I'm a newb so I usually just lurk...
Hi, Joe

How's life on your side this morning?

Looks like I'm up for the day. I refuse to make Aislinn's breakfasts but I make a mean cup of coffee!

Lindy
Quoting Luisport:
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi13 h
In cool sector, I-80 north in lakes and ne, record low max temps possible as storm passes to south


Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi13 h
ECMWF with sub 29.30 pressure in New York Harbor Friday morning. Summer Noreaster rivals July 3-4,1978
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue4 h
GFS 00z +54hr 989 mb low off of NJ coast w/trailing front into deep south. Link
Quoting zampaz:
Earlier in the blog comments someone was saying that the SSTs for the tropics are cooler than normal so far this year. Do the SST's usually reach their maximum around sept 01? Just curious, and some of you seem kind of bored at the moment. I'm a newb so I usually just lurk...


SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic remain just above normal but has slowly decreased recently. SSTs in the Atlantic reach their warmest peak in September, so does hurricane season.
Quoting zampaz:
Earlier in the blog comments someone was saying that the SSTs for the tropics are cooler than normal so far this year. Do the SST's usually reach their maximum around sept 01? Just curious, and some of you seem kind of bored at the moment. I'm a newb so I usually just lurk...


I think they were talking about out in the Atlantic where the storms form from like 5N to 20N all the way from Africa into the Caribbean....not sure when maximum temps are for the tropics some are already 85 and some are 80, by Sept I would imagine they are for sure as hot as they are gonna get.
Look Like marshmallows in the Indian ocean. Thats a lot of clouds!
Caribbean and Gulf warm up first...its why so many June and July storms come from there.


Yagi sure wussed out! Wasn't much to begin with.


And Indian Ocean
Last time I checked water temps were 89.1 over here. It really is starting to warm up.

1723. zampaz
Thanks for answering folks!

Patrap posted his famous NS/huricane bell chart earlier in the blog comments that show the most TS/TC occuring at sept01, and that why I asked if that was peak sst time...
Quoting bigwes6844:
Look Like marshmallows in the Indian ocean. Thats a lot of clouds!


must be monsoon time in SE Asia
Quoting Civicane49:


perfect
Sometimes parts of these waters get to 90 degrees
1728. zampaz
Bigwes has it too! Cool! Thanks, I'm tucking that puppy in my library!
Quoting bigwes6844:

Thats IT!
Bigwes has it too! Cool! Thanks, I'm tucking that puppy in my library!
This is my first year following the tropics. Much to learn, love the atmosphere and appreciate patience elders show.
-z
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


must be monsoon time in SE Asia

MJO baby!
2am here in Sooo Cal...gonna have to catch a catnap soon.

Does anyone know if Gro is still in the hospital? And if he is, which one?
Quoting zampaz:
Bigwes has it too! Cool! Thanks, I'm tucking that puppy in my library!
Thats IT!
Bigwes has it too! Cool! Thanks, I'm tucking that puppy in my library!
This is my first year following the tropics. Much to learn, love the atmosphere and appreciate patience elders show.
-z

no problem
The only thing I know is that Geoffrey is passing all the messages on to Gro. Maybe you could find out from him in WU mail.

Quoting bigwes6844:

MJO baby!

ya, hear it forecast to head back to the western hemi?
Getting warmer in the Gulf.



1735. zampaz
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
2am here in Sooo Cal...gonna have to catch a catnap soon.

Does anyone know if Gro is still in the hospital? And if he is, which one?

checking....
EDIT:
Sorry, someone tomorrow might know.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Yeah supposed to be around end of june early July. We should see sum activity then
Quoting Civicane49:
Getting warmer in the Gulf.



Yeah this is not good at all! its only June for the Gulf.
Strong storms now erupting across parts of central Iowa. These storms could impact Cedar Rapids and Dubuque later this am.
1739. zampaz
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
The only thing I know is that Geoffrey is passing all the messages on to Gro. Maybe you could find out from him in WU mail.


Thanks for passing that forward to Joe.
As I was searching through the comments made around 1900 on 06-09 it occurred to me that the fastest way to find Gro's friends would be to call the friendly NSA agent who is a neighbor of mine. I just don't know which neighbor that happens to be at the moment.
-z
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
The only thing I know is that Geoffrey is passing all the messages on to Gro. Maybe you could find out from him in WU mail.



Thank You
Make sure ya all get enough sleep....ya never know when the allnighters will start....im off to bed for a few (maybe several) hours of a nap....be good!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Make sure ya all get enough sleep....ya never know when the allnighters will start....im off to bed for a few (maybe several) hours of a nap....be good!


Night.
nasty cells at 430 am!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Make sure ya all get enough sleep....ya never know when the allnighters will start....im off to bed for a few (maybe several) hours of a nap....be good!
night HHJ
1745. zampaz
Nytol! Be lurking y'all up tomorrow.
Have a good sleep. Looks like we're not fishing tonight.


Lindy
Lots of purple and a little in central america near the Caribbean. Lots of activity in the Indian ocean and near asia
Quoting barbamz:


Blog is slow right now. So I may add something on this off topic stuff as Luisport didn't respond until now.
I've just read on EuroNews that f.e. the singer Maria Farantouri (the "Joan Baez of the Mediterranean world") protested against austerity in Greece which now has caused a sudden shut down of public TV. I've been in Greece for about a dozen times; it's somehow my favourite country. I know the language a little bit, something about it's history and it's great music, and I'm so sorry for them, though I've experienced some of their issues with spending money as well. And, by the way, they've got exciting weather there.
Last year I've spent many months on the internet to figure out who is the real culprit for the economical problems in (southern) Europe: Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal (where I guess our Luisport is from) - all those are really great (!) countries I've visited several times, and I appreciate and admire them a lot (pics from my last travels, including Lisbon in Portugal, are on my WU-photos). I've tried to learn the language of those countries, but - I have to confess - Portuguese was a bit too difficult for me. Moreover I've failed to get a clear insight in these economic issues, and the specialists somehow fail as well; everyone seems to have a different opinion.
So I just want to greet Greece and Portugal, which has a really hard time too, as I know.

Here is a weather related song from the above mentioned great singer Maria Farantouri from Greece (I've chosen a video with english subheads): "To the little north wind" (which now may blow in some regions of the US as well):

Hi I'm Portuguese! We just hate Merkel and Shauble, not german people. ;D
Well I'm out for now. Good night everyone.
Quoting Civicane49:
Well I'm out for now. Good night everyone.
night civicane
with that im out goodnight everyone and have a great day !
Quoting zampaz:


I'm here:)




Stay safe dude
Quoting bigwes6844:
Lots of purple and a little in central america near the Caribbean. Lots of activity in the Indian ocean and near asia


2%??



Bay of Bengal?? No invests there
South China Sea between Philippines and Vietnam and China is Invest 99W


99W looks to be going towards Hong Kong.


NWS Medford ‏@NWSMedford
http://ow.ly/i/2l7NV Crater Lake could see some light snow accumulation Thursday morning. Less than an inch is expected. #orwx #cawx
Morning

The atlantic basin is showing very little in the form of tropical development this morning. most of the reliable models are showing tropicalevelopment ,the next 10 days. That being said there is an interesting toical wave in the catl ,near 12n 47w.conditions around the wave continues o be hostile for cyclogenesis. however there are indications that the south westerly wind shear is relaxing and the normal conditions for tropical development are showing signs of coming into place


@AstroKarenN Karen L. Nyberg
The Southern Andes.
1757. beell


Probabilistic Wind (click image for all Outlook graphics)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO IND AND WRN
OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA EWD ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO VA/MD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT...ERN
ID...AND NRN WY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM IA INTO WV...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO
IA/MO/IL BY 00Z...AND WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THU. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB INTO ERN IA/NRN IL BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI INTO LOWER MI DURING
THE DAY...THEN SHIFTING NWD ACROSS PA INTO THUR MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AS IT DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING FROM OH
SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER THUR MORNING.

TO THE W...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IA/WY/MT AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH FOCUSING DAYTIME STORMS THERE.

...IA...IL AND SRN WI EARLY AFTERNOON INTO IND...OH...NRN KY AND FAR
SRN MI DURING THE EVENING...
MORNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS SRN MN/IA AND
VICINITY...WITH SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE WITH A
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS TO THE E. OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO
FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT E OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...ACROSS SRN
WI/NRN IL. INITIALLY...SOME OF THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SUPERCELLS...AND A STRONG TORNADO COULD OCCUR. WITH TIME...AND
PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A
LARGE CLUSTER. INCREASING WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY A DERECHO CAPABLE OF
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION MAY
ALSO EXIST PERIODICALLY...INDICATING EITHER TORNADOES OR ENHANCED
SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY...POSSIBLY WIND DRIVEN.

MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN CORRIDOR FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WILL BE FROM
NRN IL INTO NRN AND CNTRL IND AND INTO OH. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
GROWS LARGER THAN EXPECTED...OTHER AREAS COULD BE UNDER A GREATER
THREAT SUCH AS NRN KY...WV...AND WRN PA.

...SRN MI INTO OH...WV...WRN PA LATE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER IL AT THIS TIME...A BROAD
AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST NEAR A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN
LOWER MI INTO OH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WHICH WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES.

...SRN IL AND IND INTO WRN KY DURING THE EVENING...
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EITHER NEAR THE FRONT OR
ALONG SURGING OUTFLOW...IS MOST LIKELY TO BE FROM SRN IL INTO WRN KY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS...AND PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER S AS IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE.

...VA INTO THE DELMARVA - AFTERNOON...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE
OH VALLEY SYSTEM...WITH STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING.
WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONDITIONALLY BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY
REMAIN MAINLY NW OF THE AREA AS THE MAIN SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS OH
AND WRN PA. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REASSESS AS NEW DATA
INCLUDING SPECIAL SOUNDINGS BECOME AVAILABLE.

...MT...ERN ID...NRN WY...
DAYTIME HEATING...COOL PROFILES ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL HELP INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD OCCUR WITH SMALL BOWING CELLS. GIVEN BACKED SURFACE FLOW AND
FAVORABLE STORM MODE...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 06/12/2013
1758. barbamz
Good morning!


Somewhere in Saxony-Anhalt. Photo dpa

The Local: Death toll rises as floods roll northward
Published: 12 Jun 13 10:24 CE

New video on Spiegel online
It's showing:
a) the flooded little old town Lauenburg at Elbe River; video was recorded by a drone. Waters are receding only very slowly.
b) the town Hitzacker which is protected by a mobile wall; but they have to clear the waters of drifting woods which could damage the wall
c) regions farther south (upstreams) in Saxony-Anhalt where the levees breached earlier. Still new evacuations are underway as waters are flowing very far inland.



Source of the map

Have a nice day everyone! I hope the forecast of a derecho won't pan out.

1759. pcola57
Quoting barbamz:
Good morning!


Somewhere in Saxony-Anhalt. Photo dpa

The Local: Death toll rises as floods roll northward
Published: 12 Jun 13 10:24 CE

New video on Spiegel online
It's showing:
a) the flooded little old town Lauenburg at Elbe River; video was recorded by a drone. Waters are receding only very slowly.
b) the town Hitzacker which is protected by a mobile wall; but they have to clear the waters of drifting woods which could damage the wall
c) regions farther south (upstreams) in Saxony-Anhalt where the levees breached earlier. Still new evacuations are underway.

Have a nice day everyone! I hope the forecast of a derecho won't pan out.



Thank You for the update on the flooding sorrows Barb..
Hope your day goes well.. :)
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.
1761. barbamz
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.


Great news! Thank you, Geoff. Hope to see our famous senior soon on WU.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The opinions you stated in that first paragraph are fine so long as you clarify that they are indeed your opinion, and so long as you and everyone else realize they're supported by neither observation, fact, logic, nor 97% of active climate scientists.

There is in fact a good bit of observation and fact behind my statement. There is also logic and science, given the lack of observed climate sensitivity to CO2 for over the last decade and more. Even the New York Times is running articles discussing why global warming has flatlined.

As to the "97% of climate scientists" canard, that is #1 not true, and #2 not relevant. Good science has never been about "consensus", in fact every major scientific advance involves breaking the existing consensus.


So far as the second paragraph goes: the drop in US carbon dioxide emissions was caused by a number of things. Many plants switching to (currently) cheaper natural gas was part of it. So was a lack of demand caused by the lagging economy, conservation efforts, and a focus on renewables. But natural gas is only a temporary stopgap; even were leaks of methane not a problem--which they most assuredly are--there's the simple fact that switching from one dirty, CO2-emitting, heat-causing, non-renewable energy source to another dirty, CO2-emitting, heat-causing, non-renewable energy source is really just throwing the bailed water back in the boat.

You're making a mistake equating coal and natural gas as equally dirty. They're not - natural gas doesn't release particulates, mercury or radiation when burned.
The methane leaks are in the noise, and further may be mitigated.

My "unwavering support for nuclear power"? Ain't gonna happen until fusion replaces fission. See: Fukushima.

What is the death toll from Fukushima radiation again?

Nuclear is by all accounts the safest form of large-scale power generation. Fossil fuel accounts for somewhere around 200,000 deaths PER YEAR.

Further, you warmist alarmists need to prioritize. If CAGW is a huge problem that's about to end civilization as we know it, an inexpensive, zero CO2 power generation solution like nuclear is a no-brainer.

Pie in the sky "green" solutions aren't going to make a significant dent anytime soon. Wind is a joke in particular. One other thing that made me laugh outright was the environmentalists getting a five year moratorium on solar projects in the Mojave Desert to protect lizards. Yeah, the Green movement is all about practicality!

Use your brain.

My "unwavering support for...fracking"? Ain't gonna happen, period. See: Gasland. Also, the second half of my second paragraph above.

LOL...so your opposition to fracking is based on a highly fictionalized movie? Figures...

In the real world, fracking has been shown to have very little downside, for huge benefits. US energy independence is coming, it's only fifty years overdue...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.

2,587,234,123 (could also mean Grothar's age)

Thanks for the update
Another Gem today. Sunny and hot!! :-)

Natalie/SouthernIllinois
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.


Great news.
1766. Torito
Yay Gro! The blob I posted yesterday must have helped, heres another one! Get well soon, Gro. We are all praying for your recovery.

1767. Torito
Right from NASA:

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi2 min
12z GFS Fri map raking coastal areas with gales from N Jersey to Cape Cod. power outages possible 2-4 inch rains Link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I can relate, have had 3 Heart Attacks, the first was very bad. Best wish and hopes for a full recovery to Grothar!


Hmmm...seems as though a lot of folks on here are heart attack survivors. I hope I'm not increasing my chances of having one by following this site!

Best wishes to Grothar and all the other survivors.
Good morning everybody.

Am I correct in thinking this blowup...



is connected with this feature talked about in the TWD?

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 22N IN CUBA
TO 28N IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS OCCURRING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA.

Looks like Crown weather is charging for his discussions now. $9.95 a month.Link
1772. ncstorm
Good Morning.severe weather set up today and tomorrow looks bad..everyone stay safe..
I got a friend in CO that has been out of her house since yesterday afternoon from this Black Forest Fire..

Forest / Wild Fire in USA on Wednesday, 12 June, 2013 at 03:11 (03:11 AM) UTC.
Description
A wildfire charged through the Black Forest area northeast of Colorado Springs, Colo., on Tuesday, igniting several large houses as its flames threatened a neighborhood set in dense forest where some home values top $1 million. A thick plume of gray smoke could be seen from Denver, about 65 miles to the north. Video from a helicopter showed flames engulfing several large homes. Homes in the Black Forest area are on sites between 2 to 5 acres each. Cathedral Pines, a neighborhood with several pricey homes with views of Pikes Peak, is among the areas evacuated because of the blaze. CBS Station KCNC Colorado reported that based on Copter 4's video, it looked like at least 10 homes were burned. Fire managers requested aerial firefighting resources, and the Air Force Academy was among those sending ground resources to help fight the flames.

A U.S. Forest Service official in Golden, Mike Stearly, said an air tanker from Nevada will be coming to battle the blaze but is unsure when it will arrive. He told CBS4: "We are a little disconnected with the immediate information on ground, but we are focusing on the protection of people at this time. Things are hot and heavy here at the coordination center." There were no immediate reports of injuries in the Black Forest Fire, said Lt. Jeff Kramer of the El Paso County sheriff's department. He didn't know how many homes had been evacuated. Kramer said it was too soon to say what caused the blaze. He said residents were being notified to leave by automated phone calls and in some cases in-person visits from sheriff's deputies. "To protect life is certainly the ultimate priority here," Kramer said.

The Black Forest Fire was one of at least three significant wildfires burning in Colorado amid gusty winds and record-breaking hot, dry weather. A fire burning on an estimated 300 acres south of the Royal Gorge Bridge and Arkansas River led to the evacuation of the Royal Gorge Bridge and Park near Canon City, the Bureau of Land Management said. Park spokeswoman Peggy Gair told The Gazette the evacuations affected several hundred people at the park, which closed Tuesday afternoon. Evacuations also were in effect from Parkdale to Soda Point, north of the Royal Gorge, the BLM said.
what did i tell you a couple yrs ago ike about characters spamming the blog. now they want to reap the rewards.
Quoting sporteguy03:
Looks like Crown weather is charging for his discussions now. $9.95 a month.Link


Oh my. Everything is turning to pay from models to discussions in different sites.
Quoting Objectivist:
There is in fact a good bit of observation and fact behind my statement.
Well, then, by all means please produce it. And true scientific data from peer-reviewed literature only, please; no fantasy blog ramblings and graphs from debunked types like Spencer. I'll be standing by. Thanks!
Environment Pollution in Ecuador on Wednesday, 12 June, 2013 at 05:31 (05:31 AM) UTC.
Description
An oil spill in the Ecuadorean Amazon is flowing downstream towards Peru and Brazil, heightening concerns about the impact of drilling in one of the world's last remaining wildernesses. About 1.6m litres of crude was discharged into a tributary of the Amazon from the Trans-Ecuador pipeline, which was ruptured by a landslide on 31 May. The slick contaminated the drinking supplies of Coca, a gateway city into the Amazon forest. Local media reported that 60,000 people had to rely on water brought in by 65 tankers. Petroecuador, the pipeline operator, has hired the US clearup company Clean Caribbean & Americas, which was involved in the operation after the Gulf of Mexico spill. Although the company and local authorities tried to contain the slick with a boom, some of the oil entered the Napo river, which flows across the border. Last week Peru reported traces of the oil in its Amazon region of Loreto, prompting an apology from the Ecuadorean president, Rafael Correa. The Peruvian environment minister, Manuel Pulgar Vidal, described the slick as a "very serious problem" and said Peru could seek compensation if the damage proved extensive. Brazil, which is located many hundreds of miles downstream, has put its navy on alert and offered technical assistance. "Brazil has offered aid to Ecuador and Peru to support the work of containment and dispersion of the oil slick in the two countries," the foreign ministry said in a statement. The environment of Ecuador, the smallest member of Opec, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has long suffered from the oil industry. In 2011 the country's courts ruled that the US oil firm Chevron should pay $8.6bn in compensation for the dumping of about 7bn litres of waste over several decades. The latest slick is not large by comparison, but it comes at a sensitive time in an area of immense ecological wealth. With the oil fields now largely owned and operated by domestic state-run companies, the government plans to ramp up production in the Amazon to fund an ambitious development programme and repay loans from China. Its plans have been opposed by indigenous groups and environmental campaigners.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh my. Everything is turning to pay from models to discussions in different sites.


Don't they all get the info from NOAA? Why pay for it when NOAA gives it away for free.
Good Morning Folks. Tropical Atlantic quiet this morning so the main topic of interest today for Conus is the potential for severe weather in the upper mid-west.

From the Wunderground entry portal:

Areas from northern Illinois through western Ohio are at moderate risk of a widespread severe weather event, mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes, from Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Major cities in this moderate risk area include Chicago, Indianapolis, Columbus, and Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Here is the latest GFS jet stream plot for today; right over the above-mentioned areas:

Link
Good Morning to Grothar.........Take your time and recover fully.......Plenty of time to activate the Grocon Blob Scale in a few weeks.
TS Yagi off the coast of Japan.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, then, by all means please produce it. And true scientific data from peer-reviewed literature only, please; no fantasy blog ramblings and graphs from debunked types like Spencer. I'll be standing by. Thanks!

Isn't Dr. Roy Spencer a climatologist? Isn't he the one that used to work for NASA?

Nat
Quoting AussieStorm:


Don't they all get the info from NOAA? Why pay for it when NOAA gives it away for free.


Agree,You only have to go to the site that has the models with the animations and to the NHC site.

Link
1785. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh my. Everything is turning to pay from models to discussions in different sites.


As people become more knowledgeable about the weather, they will become less reliant on these discussions from those websites and thus the owners of these websites will find it less beneficial to charge for the same information available for free elsewhere.
Good morning!
Persistence prevails.

Orlando
MJO is coming back around to our basin by the end of the month.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Good morning!

Evening...



@Earth_Pics
12 hours in 1 photo
This is what 3.70" of rain in 45 minutes did in Mount Dora yesterday. Road got washed out.

1791. Torito
93E looks slightly worse than yesterday.



BIG derecho wind day across Northern Illinois. Sure hope they don't see what D.C. saw with their large derecho. Stay safe neighbors to the north!!

Off to the pool AGAIN!! Have a great day everyone.

Natalie :)

1793. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
BIG derecho wind day across Northern Illinois. Sure hope they don't see what D.C. saw with their large derecho. Stay safe neighbors to the north!!

Off to the pool AGAIN!! Have a great day everyone.

Natalie :)



The tornado near Sykesville was only 25 or so miles from me, it was kinda scary when it happened.
GFS has a "system" in 300hrs forming in the BOC/Yucatan Peninsular



336hrs...



360hrs...



384hrs...


Landfall SW Texas/Mexico
1795. help4u
Post 1762 the best post ever on this site!!!A MUST read!! ALGORE SAYS READ THIS!
FIM sniffing out a gulf system.

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Isn't Dr. Roy Spencer a climatologist?
He says he is, though his formal education is in weather, not climate; he holds a Ph.D. in meteorology, not climatology.

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Isn't he the one that used to work for NASA?
Yes, a few decades ago. He's now a supporter of several anti-science ideologies (creationism, climate change denialism), and he earns a living speaking and writing on behalf of fossil fuel-funded organizations. And as has been pointed out many times, Spencer has been nearly thoroughly discredited in the science community. Not because he holds a different point of view, but because he has so often strayed completely away from logic and reason and fact as a way of supporting those views.

Having said all that: I'll be happy to look at any peer-reviewed publications that support Objectivist's contentions, even if those publications were authored by Spencer. What I won't accept are things such as graphs from his website, or excerpts of his speeches to the ExxonMobil board of directors.
Later, all. Enjoy the day; the pleasure you get may be your own....
1799. SLU
1800. SLU
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.

Outstanding!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Update on Grothar....Gro is now home! He needs to take it easy and said he would make a post soon.


Thank you for keeping in touch Geoffrey.

Gro, we miss ya buddy, wishing you a speedy recovery. Don't know what this place would do without your blobology! :)
1804. Torito
1805. gator23
Hey guys as I noted yesterday, we need to watch that blow up of storms near the Bay of Campeche. Its thunderstorms have increases and so has its vorticity.Its also in an area of low shear.
Quoting sporteguy03:
Looks like Crown weather is charging for his discussions now. $9.95 a month.Link


I went in this morning to read his discussion and he wants me to pay for it. Sorry but there is too much other information out there for me to pay him.
Quoting Objectivist:

There is in fact a good bit of observation and fact behind my statement. There is also logic and science, given the lack of observed climate sensitivity to CO2 for over the last decade and more. Even the New York Times is running articles discussing why global warming has flatlined.

Please produce scientific evidence that global warming has flatlined. Good luck

Quoting Objectivist:
As to the "97% of climate scientists" canard, that is #1 not true, and #2 not relevant.

Claiming it's not true completely fails to overturn the scientific research that says that it *is* true.

Quoting Objectivist:
Good science has never been about "consensus", in fact every major scientific advance involves breaking the existing consensus.

AGW Theory isn't about consensus. But that consensus is useful to demonstrate to the public that there is no real scientific controversy about AGW/CC, despite the wild claims from denialists.
1808. Torito
Quoting gator23:
Hey guys as I noted yesterday, we need to watch that blow up of storms near the Bay of Campeche. Its thunderstorms have increases and so has its vorticity.Its also in an area of low shear.






1809. Torito


Image centered at Latitude= 5.22° N Longitude= 168.83° W (X=66 Y=204)
1810. Torito




Image centered at Latitude= 29.43 N Longitude= 169.74 W (X=86 Y=105)

I haven't seen a Moderate Risk over both DC and Baltimore since the 6/29 derecho. I think this is going to be a very wild ride.
1812. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
He says he is, though his formal education is in weather, not climate; he holds a Ph.D. in meteorology, not climatology.

Yes, a few decades ago. He's now a supporter of several anti-science ideologies (creationism, climate change denialism), and he earns a living speaking and writing on behalf of fossil fuel-funded organizations. And as has been pointed out many times, Spencer has been nearly thoroughly discredited in the science community. Not because he holds a different point of view, but because he has so often strayed completely away from logic and reason and fact as a way of supporting those views.

Having said all that: I'll be happy to look at any peer-reviewed publications that support Objectivist's contentions, even if those publications were authored by Spencer. What I won't accept are things such as graphs from his website, or excerpts of his speeches to the ExxonMobil board of directors.





Dr. Spencer’s research has been entirely supported by U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, and DOE. He has never been asked by any oil company to perform any kind of service. Not even Exxon-Mobil.

1813. LargoFl
Good Morning folks..and GRO if your home and watching..I hope you get better soon my friend..take it slow and get better,we all miss ya.
1814. Patrap
Communicating Climate Science: A Historic Look to the Future

The goal of this Chapman Conference is to bring together scholars, social scientists, and journalists to discuss both the history and recent advances in the understanding of climate science and how to communicate that science to policymakers, the media, and society. A research agenda of the conference will focus on the efficacy of scientific communication, with ideas on improved practices arising as an outcome from collaborations spawned at the conference.

This exploration will take place through: 1)

discussions covering the history of climate science and successes and failures in communicating scientific ideas to the policy makers and public;

2) an assessment of where we are with respect to current knowledge of climate science and its communication and acceptance by society; 3) a comparison with experiences in other areas producing similar difficulties between scientific knowledge dissemination, societal acceptance of that knowledge, and governance.

Live video

Wednesday addresses the challenges of ethics, morality and integrity for scientists and journalists discussing climate science using two topics to focus the discussion: Geoengineering and Adaptation/Mitigation.
1815. Thrawst
.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Wow, SPC just came out with their projections for later today. Looking like this may be extremely dangerous. Right at the cusp of high risk. If it continues to look like this is going to pan out as the SPC sees it, I bet they go to a high risk by late morning. This could well be a billion dollar disaster day shaping up for tomorrow.
I hope not...

Anyways, does anyone think that there could be a Day 1 and Day 2 High Risk? I know that there hasn't been any high risk north of Virginia since 2000 when internet archives became available at the SPC. In fact, the only High Risk I've heard about in the northeast was in 1998 when there was a large derecho over NY/PA:

1817. Patrap
1818. JRRP
1819. WxLogic
Morning
1820. Patrap
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Print Version
Experimental Multimedia Briefing MP4.
Please note this briefing may be out of date after 1445 UTC on 06/12/2013 and there will be no subsequent updates during the day.
Please send comments or questions to spc.feedback@noaa.gov or using the feedback page.
View What is a Watch? clip.
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 120902
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-OHZ000-121800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MUCH OF INDIANA
WESTERN OHIO

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SURROUNDING
AREAS...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEST
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF A LARGE AND ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY....LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH EARLY STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..KERR.. 06/12/2013

$$
Quoting yoboi:





Dr. Spencer%u2019s research has been entirely supported by U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, and DOE. He has never been asked by any oil company to perform any kind of service. Not even Exxon-Mobil.



Not all of his research. There is a distinction to be made. His most recent publications have been heavily debunked by climatologists, and he has signed on to the controversial "An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming". His books have been little more than propaganda and hardly scientific. But you all ready knew this since it was discussed in Dr. Rood's blog yesterday and many other times...why keep bringing it up?
My 2 cents on Climate change. >>> This <<< pretty much explains everything.
Quoting weatherbow:

I haven't seen a Moderate Risk over both DC and Baltimore since the 6/29 derecho. I think this is going to be a very wild ride.


As another DC resident I'm also very nervous about this one!
I love how this graph shows month by month global temperature anomaly. Shows the warming trend a lot better IMO. Try drawing a best fit line for the 80's, then 90's, etc. Each decade is warmer than the last and this graph clearly shows that as well as the clear upward trend in the past 15 years.

Quoting AussieStorm:
My 2 cents on Climate change. >>> This <<< pretty much explains everything.

I'm of the same school of thought Aussie, good evening to you and morning to all
Quoting AussieStorm:
My 2 cents on Climate change. >>> This <<< pretty much explains everything.

It's a bit dated, but seems (at a cursory glance) to get the main points across well enough.
Quoting StormPro:

I'm of the same school of thought Aussie, good evening to you and morning to all

Evening :-)
1829. Patrap
The one empirical thing about Science.

It dosent give a ratt's behind what anyone thinks, nor believes.

: )
6Z GFS big rain for S FL!
Between Southern Wisconsin and Southern Illinois there is going to be a 20 degree difference today. Going to be ideal conditions across NE Iowa and N. Illinois for the beginning of this outbreak. Derecho through Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania seems very likely. Derecho with embedded tornadoes likely, conditions are suggesting. This is looking like the real deal.
Quoting weatherbow:

I haven't seen a Moderate Risk over both DC and Baltimore since the 6/29 derecho. I think this is going to be a very wild ride.


looks like initial supercells possible.... along with hail and tornado risk..

DC area usually gets 1 big severe wx threat a year.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1834. JRRP
entertainment

SE will get the tail of this

MUCH OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST
CLOSER TO THE UPPER/SFC LOWS, BUT WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE, ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS TOMORROW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. MUCAPE VALUES OVER THE CWA
TOMORROW/TOMORROW AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE (WITH
SLIGHTLY LESSER VALUES OVER NW AL ~2000 J/KG), AND DCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG. THE CAP WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK (CIN ~15-20 J/KG),
AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE (AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
LOWERING TO ~10KFT), LARGE HAIL IS THE SECOND THREAT TOMORROW.

-hun


. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
OVER 4000J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...SUSTAIN UPDRAFtTS...AND POSSIBLY BECOME
ORGANIZED. 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM AROUND -7C...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. ADD IN
DOWNDRAFT CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG...AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
INCREASES. WILL MAINTAIN THE SEVERE MENTION IN THE HWO FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING

-bmx


That's about all we can get in mid june lol

small hail and gusty winds.
Quoting wilsongti45:
I love how this graph shows month by month global temperature anomaly. Shows the warming trend a lot better IMO. Try drawing a best fit line for the 80's, then 90's, etc. Each decade is warmer than the last and this graph clearly shows that as well as the clear upward trend in the past 15 years.
And this, mind you, is from John Spencer's falling-out-of-fashion UAH temperature data set. At any rate, here's a version overlaid with various trendlines. (The 4th- and 6th-order polynomial trendlines were added to highlight the silliness of Spencer doing using the same trendlines on his version of the graph to show "cooling". He's since stopped using those trendlines.)

uah

(Also, note that Spencer's graph shows an anomaly of 0.07C for May, while this version accurately reflects the actual measuement of 0.08C.)
I'm an Evangelical and I see why it's called "An Evangelical declaration on Global Warming" It certainly couldn't be called "An Evanglical's proof that all the scientists are wrong." I think faith and science have no problem going hand in hand. I've made, I believe, strong arguments for that in the past here. I'm afraid Dr. Spencer thinks faith and big business denialism go hand and hand. His position in this arena has been debunked because it absolutely denies all reason behind what is proven science at this point in regards to GW. I believe his heart is in the right place, but I honestly believe he's been misled/manipulated by very powerful forces and powerful misinformation and bad science. The Evangelical movement is made up of millions and millions of us here in the US alone. If Big Business can convince them GW is not happening then it goes a long way to furthering their agenda of slowing down any regulations on what they do and how much they make.
I am seeing on twitter that the Royal Gorge Bridge could of possibly been lost in the wild fire there. Anyone else getting news of this?

New Blog.

Thank you.
Great to hear that Gro is back home! It takes a little while Gro....I been through 3 of them...... All the best buddy!
No record cold here! Average lows are around 58, supposed to be at or above 65 for the next week or longer. Oppressive humidity, but clouds and rainfall keep daytime highs in check. Flash flooding is a possibility due to the unusually humid airmass.

It's just like everything is stuck. Extreme heat and drought over the west. Oppressive humidity coupled with clouds and downpours over parts of the Midwest and Southeast. And excessive heat and humidity over the East coast.

It will be interesting to see where June checked in for the country... it should be one of the hottest on record nationwide, as most of the country was warmer than normal with extremely hot weather in much of the West. Alaska also experienced one of the hottest Junes on record. July is also shaping up to be a national scorcher. This is now the fourth consecutive abnormally hot summer. 2010, 2011, 2012, and now 2013. All should be among the top ten of all-time hottest summers. It's interesting that a Stanford report from spring 2010 just before this crazy stretch projected that by mid-century almost every summer would be hotter than the then-existing hottest summer on record for the U.S. Clearly, with the current state of things, we are very nearly there already.