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Tropical Storm Andrea Spreading Heavy Rains to U.S. East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:39 PM GMT on June 07, 2013

Tropical Storm Andrea is rapidly losing its tropical characteristics as it barrels northeastwards at 27 mph up the U.S. East Coast, but it still has plenty of tropical moisture that is feeding very heavy rains. Rains of 2 - 4" are expected along a swath from South Carolina to New England from Andrea over the next two days. Pine Ridge, NC has received 6.5" of rain from Andrea, and New River MCAS, North Carolina picked up 2" of rain as of 9 am EDT this morning, along with a wind gust of 47 mph at 3:18 am. The same band of heavy thunderstorms spawned a possible tornado near Hubert, North Carolina at 4:45 am EDT. Andrea has spawned a preliminary count of eleven tornadoes, which is a respectable number for a landfalling June tropical storm, but not a record. According to TWC's severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes, there have been two other June tropical storms since the year 2000 that spawned far more tornadoes--Tropical Storm Bill during June 29 - July 3, 2003 (32 tornadoes in FL, GA, LA, AL, MS, SC, NC, NJ), and Tropical Storm Allison of June 7 - 17 2001 (28 tornadoes in FL, AL, GA, LA, MS, SC, VA, MA, ME.) Only one of Andrea's tornadoes caused an injury, a tornado that hit The Acreage in Palm Beach County at 6:45 am EDT. The highest storm surge from Andrea was 4.55' at Cedar Key, Florida.


Figure 1. Yummy’s cafe in Gulfport, Florida was hit Thursday morning by a waterspout that moved ashore and became a tornado.(LAUREN CARROLL/Tampa Bay Times)


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 48-hour period from 8 am EDT Friday, June 7, to 8 am EDT Sunday, June 8, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.


Video 1. NASA animation of Andrea satellite images. More cool NASA images of Andrea are here.

The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer
Andrea's formation in June continues a pattern of an unusually large number of early-season Atlantic named storms we've seen in recent years. Climatologically, June is the second quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, behind November. During the period 1870 - 2012, we averaged one named storm every two years in June, and 0.7 named storms per year during May and June. In the nineteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been fifteen June named storms (if we include 2013's Tropical Storm Andrea.) June activity has nearly doubled since 1995, and May activity has more than doubled (there were seventeen May storms in the 75-year period 1870 - 1994, compared to 6 in the 19-year period 1995 - 2013.) Some of this difference can be attributed to observation gaps, due to the lack of satellite data before 1966. However, even during the satellite era, we have seen an increase in both early season (May - June) and late season (November - December) Atlantic tropical storms. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin looked at the reasons for this in a 2008 paper titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high." He found that hurricane season for both the period 1950-2007 and 1980-2007 got longer by 5 to 10 days per decade (see my blog post on the paper.)

Invest 92L in the Central Atlantic no threat to develop
Satellite images show that disorganized tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic, about a two-day journey from the Lesser Antilles Islands. NHC designated this system 92L Thursday afternoon. High wind shear of 30 - 40 knots is ripping up the thunderstorms in 92L as they form, and wind shear is predicted to remain 30 - 40 knots for the next five days, making development unlikely. The wave will likely bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday night. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. barbamz
Quoting Luisport:
i just post a 3 day rain forecast map... i think you should see it. It will be a big rain event today and tomorrow in central Europe!


Yes, thank you Luis!

News is just in, that the flood crest of Elbe River extends to 40 km (= 24,9 miles). It's the longest ever recorded crest in Germany. So water will stay on it's highest level for quite a while when the crest pass all that towns.
1502. sar2401
Quoting Neapolitan:
It doesn't take any "gall" for me to impugn Spencer; just reading ability mixed in with some critical thinking skills. You're certainly free to claim that "regardless of Spencer's views", we should listen to him, and if we were talking about his opinion on, say, cabernet vs. merlot, or whether he prefers boxers or briefs, I'd agree with you. But a scientist who believes so rigidly in the non-science of creationism faces serious credibility hurdles. Someone who is so utterly wrong about the planet's past simply cannot be taken seriously when discussing the planet's future.

If I may, Dr. Spencer's views on creationism should be taken separately from his views on climatology. In fact, his background and education in climatology is impeccable and is, I suspect, far beyond that of any poster here, certainly including me.

OTOH, background, education, and credentials are still secondary to if a person is right or wrong when it comes to science. For those of you who are too young to remember, there was a "wonder" drug for cancer introduced in the 1950's called krebiozen. This drug was backed by a physician named Anrew Ivy, with long background, excellent education, and fine credentials. He was a true believer that krebiozen was the "magic bullet" for cancer. Unfortunately, science proved krebiozen was a fraud and didn't work at all. Regardless of overwhelming evidence, Dr. Ivy went to his grave believing that krebiozen did work and the banning of the substance by the FDA was part of a giant conspiracy by the FDA and drug companies. Regardless of education, experience, and background, hubris can trump everything. If you'd like to learn more about this sad story, there's an excellent radio program archived at KRCU Public Radio.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
06z GFS makes it 14 runs in row that the GFS is showing development in the Caribbean for next Sunday.
Still no strong support from the ECMWF other than slight pressure falls.GEM/CMC shows development but slightly later in time but hugs it close to Central America if not in EPAC.
May you post the model graphics please?
1504. centex
Has the tropical convergence zone shifted further south this year?
Quoting Objectivist:

Ah, the "science is settled" argument. Too bad that pesky data keeps contradicting the lovely hypotheses.

The "science was settled" (as far as consensus goes) when the Earth was at the center of the Universe as well. Funny how that worked out...


I would suggest a publication of sorts backing up your claim that has gone through peer review. I'll wait...
1506. barbamz

Weather alert in Germany right now for the German Weather Service DWD. Click to update.
Identical areas with the catastrophic rainfalls a week ago, that have caused all the flooding :-(
1507. sar2401
Quoting barbamz:
Brand-new photo gallery is up on the deluge in Saxony-Anhalt (Magdeburg) from the local radio station MDR. [Click to the right on "Bild ..." or on automatic "Diashow" to see them]

Barb, this is such a slow motion disaster, and it looks like it's going to last for weeks. It's terrible to see all those wonderful old buildings flooded, not to mention the loss of life and economic loss to the area. This really puts into perspective how lucky we've been in the US lately when it comes to massive flooding.
Quoting sar2401:

If I may, Dr. Spencer's views on creationism should be taken separately from his views on climatology. In fact, his background and education in climatology is impeccable and is, I suspect, far beyond that of any poster here, certainly including me.

OTOH, background, education, and credentials are still secondary to if a person is right or wrong when it comes to science. For those of you who are too young to remember, there was a "wonder" drug for cancer introduced in the 1950's called krebiozen. This drug was backed by a physician named Anrew Ivy, with long background, excellent education, and fine credentials. He was a true believer that krebiozen was the "magic bullet" for cancer. Unfortunately, science proved krebiozen was a fraud and didn't work at all. Regardless of overwhelming evidence, Dr. Ivy went to his grave believing that krebiozen did work and the banning of the substance by the FDA was part of a giant conspiracy by the FDA and drug companies. Regardless of education, experience, and background, hubris can trump everything. If you'd like to learn more about this sad story, there's an excellent radio program archived at KRCU Public Radio.


It seems as of late that it is a possibility that his personal views have influenced his take on climate science. I would give him more credit if he published scientific, peer reviewed papers instead of pushing books. His last few peer reviewed publications have been torn apart from his peers, by the way.
can't wait for our next storm......
1510. sar2401
Quoting centex:
Has the tropical convergence zone shifted further south this year?

Not that I'm aware of. It's in the normal position both sides of the equator that one would expect find the ICTZ. It is still quite early in the season, however, and the edges tend to creep northward as the SST's become warmer later in the season.
Quoting washingtonian115:
May you post the model graphics please?


GFS starts the development in Western Caribbean at 180 hours and this is where it ends up at 288 hours. No hurricane in this run,only a weak to moderate TS.



CMC is EPAC at 180 hours.

1512. sar2401
Quoting gulfbreeze:

Please don't quote trolls. Use the "Report" button, put him/her on ignore, and let the mods handle it. They've been doing a good job this year.
1513. barbamz
Quoting sar2401:

Barb, this is such a slow motion disaster, and it looks like it's going to last for weeks. ...


Sar, thank you very much for your sympathy.

Rainfall loop Germany right now.
Weather really isn't boring right now in my country ...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


GFS starts the development in Western Caribbean at 180 hours and this is where it ends up at 288 hours. No hurricane in this run,only a weak to moderate TS.



CMC is EPAC at 180 hours.

Thank you.
1515. sar2401
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


GFS starts the development in Western Caribbean at 180 hours and this is where it ends up at 288 hours. No hurricane in this run,only a weak to moderate TS.



CMC is EPAC at 180 hours.


Do you believe that weak low in the Gulf depicted by the GFS and the monster depicted by the CMC in the EPAC are of the same genesis? That seems unlikely to me.
1516. Patrap
Quoting centex:
Has the tropical convergence zone shifted further south this year?


It is at about it's normal position for this time of year:





From Link
Quoting islander44:
First timer here, be gentle with me.

Objectivist, if you have to go back to the time of Galileo for your corroborating argument, that tells me all I need to know about the strength of your argument, and how "objective" you are.

My theory is this: If we address the issue to reduce CO2 emissions, and turn out to be wrong, at the worst, it means your grandchildren won't be able to drive a Camaro.

If we follow your idea, and it turns out to be wrong, your grandchildren have no food.

They're your grandchildren, you think about it and then decide.

I appreciate the good information here, and the entertainment value of some of the posts. I'll do my best to ignore trolls.

The problem is there are consequences for my grandchildren (and children, and me) either way.

CAGW* alarmists generally want to cripple the US economy (India, China and Russia all refuse to adopt economically damaging measures), as well as reducing our future standard of living.

There is a fertile middle ground. As mentioned, I'm all for expanded nuclear power. The vast expansion of natural gas extraction has already lowered America's CO2 output, reduced particulate pollution, and boosted the economy. I'm all for beneficial changes with no downside. What I'll resist 'til my dying breath are wrongheaded attempts to move in a "green" direction at great cost and for no good reason. Mankind needs clean, high intensity energy, not eyesore windmills dotting the landscape as far as the eye can see. Besides, we already know there are also environmental impacts from windmills.

I have great hopes for endpoint solar generation. There seems to be no technological barrier for it to become one of the least expensive energy sources, with no real downside. Elon Musk's Solar City company looks like a great start.

* The correct term for "climate change" (as though the climate isn't constantly changing) is "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming". If it's not catastrophic, there's no need to take extraordinary measures to avert it. At a minimum, "climate change" should be revised to "anthropogenic climate change" to distinguish from natural variation.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thank you.


I didn't post the ECMWF because it didn't have much to look at.
Quoting sar2401:

Please don't quote trolls. Use the "Report" button, put him/her on ignore, and let the mods handle it. They've been doing a good job this year.
Sorry want happen again.
Quoting sar2401:

Do you believe that weak low in the Gulf depicted by the GFS and the monster depicted by the CMC in the EPAC are of the same genesis? That seems unlikely to me.


It may occur that a piece of wave goes to EPAC and the northern end is in Western Caribbean.
Quoting barbamz:


Yes, thank you Luis!

News is just in, that the flood crest of Elbe River extends to 40 km (= 24,9 miles). It's the longest ever recorded crest in Germany. So water will stay on it's highest level for quite a while when the crest pass all that towns.
How long this will last on the grownd?
Quoting Naga5000:


It seems as of late that it is a possibility that his personal views have influenced his take on climate science. I would give him more credit if he published scientific, peer reviewed papers instead of pushing books. His last few peer reviewed publications have been torn apart from his peers, by the way.


While a believer in AGW, I'm not peer review's greatest fan. For example, any cosmologist who presented a paper that refuted Big Bang theory would have it dismissed by his peers, no matter how cogently argued it was.

He'd also find he was unemployable. Peer review has its downside.
1524. sar2401
Quoting Naga5000:


It seems as of late that it is a possibility that his personal views have influenced his take on climate science. I would give him more credit if he published scientific, peer reviewed papers instead of pushing books. His last few peer reviewed publications have been torn apart from his peers, by the way.

Indeed, that may be true. However, it is disingenuous at best to dismiss a well-qualifed scientist's work based on religious beliefs. I'm fairly certain there are other climate scientists that are extreme secular humanists, but that shouldn't influence my evaluation of their scientific products. Dr. Spencer has chosen to make his religious views a lightning rod as part of his work on climate change, and that has been an obfuscating issue when some people look at his scientific work. I personally believe he's not proving his case well scientifically. If he was, I could care less about what he does on Sunday.
1525. barbamz

Pics from Schmiedeberg (Saxony, at the eastern border of Germany) which just was hit by catastrophic weather (rain and hail, as you can see); small rivers are already flooding anew.
Source and little photo gallery
1526. centex
Quoting sar2401:

Not that I'm aware of. It's in the normal position both sides of the equator that one would expect find the ICTZ. It is still quite early in the season, however, and the edges tend to creep northward as the SST's become warmer later in the season.
Thanks but seeing lower stuff than seen in past years. Will watch if and how much it rises in next couple of months.
1527. sar2401
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It may occur that a piece of wave goes to EPAC and the northern end is in Western Caribbean.

I suppose it may, but that piece that goes to the EPAC must be quite a chunk. :-)
Thanks again for your updates on the flood disaster in Central Europe, barbamz. I remember the floods of 2002 which were labelled 'once in a century' floods but now they returned only 11 years later and even worse. One of the captions to the fotos on the MDR.de website said that the river gauge in Madgeburg is 80 cm (34 inches) higher than in 2002: "Am Nachmittag stagnierte der Pegel bei 7,45 Metern. Damit ist das Hochwasser 2013 schon jetzt rund 80 Zentimeter höher als das Hochwasser im Jahr 2002."

I have family in Baden-Württemberg, Vienna and South Tyrol and I am worried about them, especially my cousin in Vienna.
1529. sar2401
Quoting centex:
Thanks but seeing lower stuff than seen in past years. Will watch if and how much it rises in next couple of months.

I think we're probably looking at the ICTZ a little more closely in early June than other years as well. I know I am.
1530. Patrap
1532. barbamz
Quoting Luisport:
How long this will last on the grownd?


Several hours to maybe a day at every location I think. And afterwards the floods will recede very slowly, keeping the soaked levees in high danger.
Quoting sar2401:

I think we're probably looking at the ICTZ a little more closely in early June than other years as well. I know I am.


That makes two of us lol. I mentioned the same thing yesterday to my wife, that it looked like it was lower right now to me as well. Glad to see it's really nothing unusual.
Quoting barbamz:


Several hours to maybe a day at every location I think. And afterwards the floods will recede very slowly, keeping the soaked levees in high danger.
The recovery will be slow...
1536. barbamz
Quoting taistelutipu:
Thanks again for your updates on the flood disaster in Central Europe, barbamz. I remember the floods of 2002 which were labelled 'once in a century' floods but now they returned only 11 years later and even worse. One of the captions to the fotos on the MDR.de website said that the river gauge in Madgeburg is 80 cm (34 inches) higher than in 2002: "Am Nachmittag stagnierte der Pegel bei 7,45 Metern. Damit ist das Hochwasser 2013 schon jetzt rund 80 Zentimeter höher als das Hochwasser im Jahr 2002."

I have family in Baden-Württemberg, Vienna and South Tyrol and I am worried about them, especially my cousin in Vienna.


Yes, a new all time record flood at several locations, and a century seems to be very shorter now than it used to be in former times (little lol).
Hope your folks stay safe!
Quoting yonzabam:


While a believer in AGW, I'm not peer review's greatest fan. For example, any cosmologist who presented a paper that refuted Big Bang theory would have it dismissed by his peers, no matter how cogently argued it was.

He'd also find he was unemployable. Peer review has its downside.

There's a problem with your example right off the bat... one paper can't dismiss a theory. It takes numerous papers from independent sources to push scientific ideas from hypotheses to a unified theory.

Papers that are far from a central consensus typically are heavily debated because they do not fit with the majority of evidence. It would be in the cosmologist's court to make sure that evidence was very robust and could stand up to the scrutiny. I'm not sure what alternative system would prevent big changes in scientific thought from having a rough time being initially being accepted. And unemployable? Probably not... numerous scientists with non-mainstream ideas are employed. That is one benefit - or detriment, depending on the situation - to tenure.
1538. Patrap
CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR YAGI (03W) 2013

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2013060908
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 988 hPa MSW = 45 kt
ADT: 990 hPa 49 kt Scene: CRVBD
CIMSS AMSU: 988 hPa 45 kt Bias Corr: 0 (JTWC)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA
1539. sar2401
Quoting yonzabam:


While a believer in AGW, I'm not peer review's greatest fan. For example, any cosmologist who presented a paper that refuted Big Bang theory would have it dismissed by his peers, no matter how cogently argued it was.

He'd also find he was unemployable. Peer review has its downside.

You bring up an excellent point. One one hand, it's unlikey that a vast majority of your peers are wrong and you're right. OTOH, Galileo faired poorly in a "peer reviewed" study of heliocentrism in 1632. Sometimes the few are correct, and we shouldn't close our minds to the possibility.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

There's a problem with your example right off the bat... one paper can't dismiss a theory. It takes numerous papers from independent sources to push scientific ideas from hypotheses to a unified theory.

Papers that are far from a central consensus typically are heavily debated because they do not fit with the majority of evidence. It would be in the cosmologist's court to make sure that evidence was very robust and could stand up to the scrutiny. I'm not sure what alternative system would prevent big changes in scientific thought from having a rough time being initially being accepted. And unemployable? Probably not... numerous scientists with non-mainstream ideas are employed. That is one benefit - or detriment, depending on the situation - to tenure.


Sorry, but being a cosmologist who doesn't believe in Big Bang theory is equivalent to being a priest who doesn't believe in God. Do you think the hierarchy would allow an atheist in the pulpit?
1541. Patrap
Quoting yonzabam:


Sorry, but being a cosmologist who doesn't believe in Big Bang theory is equivalent to being a priest who doesn't believe in God. Do you think the hierarchy would allow an atheist in the pulpit?


That is not true I know many Christian Cosmologist who believe in creation
Quoting sar2401:

You bring up an excellent point. One one hand, it's unlikey that a vast majority of your peers are wrong and you're right. OTOH, Galileo faired poorly in a "peer reviewed" study of heliocentrism in 1632. Sometimes the few are correct, and we shouldn't close our minds to the possibility.


G'morning everyone. Beautiful day here in central OK. The last before the heat of summer sets in:

Galileo was a victim of politics - not entirely of peer review - as his findings directly challenged the ruling authority of the time . . . the church.
F-E Region: South Australia

Time: 2013-06-09 14:22:14.3 UTC

Magnitude: 5.8

Epicenter: 131.92°E 26.04°S
Depth: 10 km
Status: A - automatic Link
Quoting yonzabam:


Sorry, but being a cosmologist who doesn't believe in Big Bang theory is equivalent to being a priest who doesn't believe in God. Do you think the hierarchy would allow an atheist in the pulpit?

It's really not as black and white as you make it out to be. Although it might make it harder for one to find a job, it certainly is wouldn't be an unemployment death sentence. That's why scientific institutions have tenure, it's meant to allow you more freedom of scientific thought.
Quoting yonzabam:


Sorry, but being a cosmologist who doesn't believe in Big Bang theory is equivalent to being a priest who doesn't believe in God. Do you think the hierarchy would allow an atheist in the pulpit?
Quoting daddyjames:


G'morning everyone. Beautiful day here in central OK. The last before the heat of summer sets in:

Galileo was a victim of politics - not entirely of peer review - as his findings directly challenged the ruling authority of the time . . . the church.

Speculation that Galileo would - or would not - have made it through today's type of scientific peer review process are a bit tenuous, dont you think? It's not the same system as today, and as mention, it was really more about speaking up against authority than it was being the only scientist with his ideas. Scientific peer review or not, if your government could brand you a heretic and lock you up, they'd probably do so anyway if your correct ideas were a threat to their goals.
WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.8N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.7N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.3N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.7N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 32.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 132.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

1548. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


G'morning everyone. Beautiful day here in central OK. The last before the heat of summer sets in:

Galileo was a victim of politics - not entirely of peer review - as his findings directly challenged the ruling authority of the time . . . the church.

Good morning, James. 75 degrees here in SE Alabama with some light rain. We've had rain 5 out of the last 6 days, which is very unusual. I'll take it though, since we should be back in the high 90's by Wednesday.

WRT Gaileo, that's why I put peer reviewed in quotes. ;-) Even though we don't have a church in charge any longer, I would still argue that deciding to be the fish swimming upstream is a tiring and potentially deadly task.
Quoting Objectivist:

The problem is there are consequences for my grandchildren (and children, and me) either way.

CAGW* alarmists generally want to cripple the US economy (India, China and Russia all refuse to adopt economically damaging measures), as well as reducing our future standard of living.

. . . . There seems to be no technological barrier for it to become one of the least expensive energy sources, with no real downside. Elon Musk's Solar City company looks like a great start.

* The correct term for "climate change" (as though the climate isn't constantly changing) is "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming". If it's not catastrophic, there's no need to take extraordinary measures to avert it. At a minimum, "climate change" should be revised to "anthropogenic climate change" to distinguish from natural variation.


Paradigm changes are always met with great resistance, and those resisting the most are those benefiting the most from the current economic system.
CAGW "alarmists" in no way want to cripple the US economy . . . the US economy will be crippled in the future, if we don't start seriously investing in alternative means of generating energy. The current US economy is highly dependent upon relatively inexpensive "fossil fuels" to maintain it and the current standard of living.
In reality, the standard of living for the vast majority of Americans has been eroding for the past 50 years, for a number of different reasons.
Staying the course is not the answer. And if we wait until 100% of the people agree that something should be done - it will be too late.
1550. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Speculation that Galileo would - or would not - have made it through today's type of scientific peer review process are a bit tenuous, dont you think? It's not the same system as today, and as mention, it was really more about speaking up against authority than it was being the only scientist with his ideas. Scientific peer review or not, if your government could brand you a heretic and lock you up, they'd probably do so anyway if your correct ideas were a threat to their goals.

Scott, while I agree with you in general, do you see any irony at all in your last sentence?
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz. Evening, Aussie. A warm 77 degrees this morning with a high of 90 expected and a 50% chance of rain.

A late breakfast on the sideboard: Beignets smothered in powdered sugar, grilled ham steaks, pecan thick sliced bacon, grits, biscuits and gravy, fresh orange juice. Enjoy!
1553. hydrus
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


looks like its trying
Mornin Joe. Very cool that you know the plantation. I have many good memories there and miss it alot. We may have even met. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Good morning, James. 75 degrees here in SE Alabama with some light rain. We've had rain 5 out of the last 6 days, which is very unusual. I'll take it though, since we should be back in the high 90's by Wednesday.

WRT Gaileo, that's why I put peer reviewed in quotes. ;-) Even though we don't have a church in charge any longer, I would still argue that deciding to be the fish swimming upstream is a tiring and potentially deadly task.


Oh yes, agree with you 100%. I am sure, that if we investigate we would find numerous examples of people raising the alarm regarding the detriment of using fossil fuels, and whose voices were silenced by those in power - economic or otherwise - or well on deaf ears. We tend to forget that, in this most recent round, the warnings have been sounded for the past 40 years. Only in the last 10 or so have people been paying attention.

Hey, looks like the drought in AL is all but gone, is the lawn happy?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1556. sar2401
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz. Evening, Aussie. A warm 77 degrees this morning with a high of 90 expected and a 50% chance of rain.

A late breakfast on the sideboard: Beignets smothered in powdered sugar, grilled ham steaks, pecan thick sliced bacon, grits, biscuits and gravy, fresh orange juice. Enjoy!

Good morning as well. I just gained five pounds reading about breakfast. :-) My breakfast of a bowl of raisin bran doesn't quite compare.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz. Evening, Aussie. A warm 77 degrees this morning with a high of 90 expected and a 50% chance of rain.

A late breakfast on the sideboard: Beignets smothered in powdered sugar, grilled ham steaks, pecan thick sliced bacon, grits, biscuits and gravy, fresh orange juice. Enjoy!


So, could i get you to FedEx that - I'd pay for shipping :D
Quoting barbamz:

Pics from Schmiedeberg (Saxony, at the eastern border of Germany) which just was hit by catastrophic weather (rain and hail, as you can see); small rivers are already flooding anew.
Source and little photo gallery


I've looked at the photo gallery, and everything seems to be covered in foam. Where's that coming from?
Quoting yonzabam:


I've looked at the photo gallery, and everything seems to be covered in foam. Where's that coming from?
it's hail
Quoting sar2401:

If I may, Dr. Spencer's views on creationism should be taken separately from his views on climatology. In fact, his background and education in climatology is impeccable and is, I suspect, far beyond that of any poster here, certainly including me.
Spencer's formal education is in meteorology, not climate. And all his peer-reviewed papers are on the subject of satellite temperature measurements. The rest of his CV consists of membership in numerous far-right and pro-fossil fuel organizations (Heartland, etc.)

Now, suppose you were to be scheduled for open heart surgery by a doctor who had an impressive resume: great schools, and long experience at the world's finest cardiology facilities. But then suppose that only hours before you were scheduled to go under the knife, you discovered via his personal blog that your surgeon has recently come to believe that migraines were caused by demons multiplying in the patient's skull, and that the problem was thus best dealt with by drilling holes in the patient's forehead and holding a prayer vigil in the operating room as the demon's escaped.

How's his credibility now? :-\

Again: someone who is so utterly wrong about the planet's past simply cannot be taken seriously when discussing the planet's future.