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Tornado Scientist Tim Samaras and Team Killed in Friday's El Reno, OK Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2013

Veteran tornado scientist Tim Samaras, his son, environmental photographer Paul Samaras, 24, and meteorologist Carl Young, 45, died while chasing Friday's EF-3 tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma. The tornado killed at least nine people, in total. "Thank you to everyone for the condolences. It truly is sad that we lost my great brother Tim and his great son, Paul," said the brother of Tim Samaras, Jim Samaras, on Tim's Facebook page. "They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED." Tim, his son Paul, and Carl Young were all featured chasers on the Discovery Channel’s series, Storm Chasers, and Tim was known throughout the chase community as a conscientious and safety-minded chaser. Carl Young, who holds a Masters degree in meteorology from the University of Nevada, joined Samaras in the field in 2003. According to his Discovery Channel biography, Young and Samaras chased over 125 tornadoes together: "Carl's finest moment came on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa. Working with Tim, they defied the odds and deployed their probes right in the path of a tornado. The six-camera video probe captured amazing footage from multiple angles while the sensor probe recorded data that revealed just how fast wind speeds are close to the ground."


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle. The tornado killed tornado scientists/storm chasers Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.


Figure 2. Storm chasers in North Dakota aligned themselves to spell out "T S" in honor of Tim Samaras today. Image credit: spotternetwork.org.

Tornado science loses a pioneer
Tim Samaras had been a tornado scientist for over 25 years. He was the founder of TWISTEX, the Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, a 2011 field experiment designed to help learn more about tornadoes and increase lead time for warnings, which resulted in many peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period.

One of the publications from the TWISTEX program, "Near-Ground Pressure and Wind Measurements in Tornadoes" recounts this close call Tim had in a tornado in 2011: "As the storm approached, the crew noted that the supercell was moving more sharply to the right of its former course, placing them near the projected path of the low-level mesocyclone. The crew drove south on Highway 259, attempting to position south of the low-level mesocyclone before it crossed the highway. With considerable tree cover in this region hampering the visual observation of the storm's features, TWISTEX crews could not position south of the mesocyclone on Highway 259 before the mesocyclone reached this road. Thus, the two mobile mesonet stations, M2 and M3, had an unplanned tornado encounter with a developing tornadic circulation while the mesonet was traveling south on Highway 259."


Figure 3. One of Tim Samaras' most widely recognized contributions to tornado science is his placement of an aerodynamically-designed probe in the path of an EF-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota on June 24, 2003. The probe measured a world-record pressure fall of 100 mb over a 40 second period. See the NWS article and conference paper on the event. Thanks to wunderground member Scott Lincoln for this link.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unexpected events occur. The exact circumstances of the deaths of Tim Samaras and his team are not clear, but the El Reno tornado was an extremely dangerous one to chase. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City, and suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. Austin Anderson was driving the Tornado Hunt vehicle, and suffered several broken bones and was hospitalized. Although Austin will have to undergo surgery in the next few days, doctors say he is expected to make a full recovery. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close."


Video 1. Severe storm researcher and engineer Tim Samaras talks about his view on tornadoes and what remains to be understood in this interview posted on May 21, 2013.


Video 2. A tornado passes over one of Tim Samaras' specially designed six-camera video probes on June 11, 2004 near Storm Lake, Iowa.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannsford, Oklahoma EF- 4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. It is often better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado. However, if there is already flying debris in the air, leaving your car and exposing yourself to the debris in order to get to a ditch may be more hazardous than staying in your car. Furthermore, ditches are prone to flash floods. Four deaths during the El Reno tornado were from a family of seven that sheltered in a drainage ditch, and were washed into the Deep Fork River by a flash flood. Searchers are still looking for the other three bodies. A 2002 research paper, "UNSAFE AT ANY (WIND) SPEED? Testing the Stability of Motor Vehicles in Severe Winds" found that: "The stability and superior safety of being in a vehicle in severe winds, relative to occupying a mobile home or being outdoors, should be considered." Also, TWC's severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, commented on the pros and cons of abandoning one's vehicle for a ditch in a 2009 blog post, "Tornado Safety - Cars Versus Ditches: A Controversy." His personal take on what he would do if his car was being overtaken by a tornado, and no sturdy buildings were nearby to take shelter in: "I can't see myself getting out of the vehicle. I'd try first to drive away from the tornado. Both the NWS and the American Red Cross actually also advocate this. If you can determine which way the tornado is moving toward, face your body toward that direction and then go to the right, as shown in the diagram below. That is usually toward the south or southeast. The reason that it's best to head this way is that if you went to the left you would normally get into the region where largest hail and blinding rain occur in the kind of supercell, rotating thunderstorms that often spawn tornadoes. If I had no such driving option and I did feel the urge to get out of my car, I'd try to get into a building, and into a ditch well away from the car as the last resort."

My condolences and prayers go to all of the family and friends of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young. Their deaths are a terrible shock to the meteorological community, and a great loss for tornado science. I hope that their deaths will lead towards safer tornado chasing, and help spur efforts to use emerging drone technology to take measurements in dangerous storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm back! Welcome to Hurricane Season 2013!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He does this May through November. I can tell you many stories. He his famous on here for his forecasts.


last year though, he got many right..took a lot of heat on this blog..
why is errbody hating on the caymans? if ya disagree ignore it. simple as that!
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

91L a non event for now. High shear dominates the area. The NHC position looks good to me with the buoy near 20 / 85 reporting WNW winds. The broad low would be N of there just on or near the N tip of the Yucatan. See data below

Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts

Steering is very weak so do not expect much in the way of motion in the near term.



Agreed - hence my earlier sigh.

need to pm you later - nothing urgent - just looking for an update on your local Doppler radar I asked about years ago. Very wet here. - logging out now.
Quoting ncstorm:


last year though, he got many right..took a lot of heat on this blog..


He got a lot wrong. I mean a lot.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Baha Re #486

Remove the "s" from https

and it will display
I thought I had.... :o/

Quoting docrod:


Agreed - hence my earlier sigh.

need to pm you later - nothing urgent - just looking for an update on your local Doppler radar I asked about years ago. Very wet here. - logging out now.


Doppler radar up and running now but no internet link as yet I believe. Will check and let you know.

The ribbon cutting was about 6 weeks ago.
Quoting Dragod66:
why is errbody hating on the caymans? if ya disagree ignore it. simple as that!

Nobody's hating on anyone. I was quite literally just asking him to try to limit those kind of posts this year. No disrespect intended.
Wow, this shows you how strong the wind shear will be for 91L
Shear is gradually decreasing.


Quoting Dragod66:
why is errbody hating on the caymans? if ya disagree ignore it. simple as that!


I am not hating on the Caymans. Odd post.
Any high school graduates on here? And, are you going to major in meteorology?
Quoting kmanislander:


Doppler radar up and running now but no internet link as yet I believe. Will check and let you know.

The ribbon cutting was about 6 weeks ago.



Oh wow. Pleased you let me know. I am about to post my radar links to our office (Fl Keys) tomorrow morn but mentioned the pending operations in your area. Glad to hear from you ... good eve - Rod
Sorry haven't been commenting, been +1ing on my new account but I have to wait one more hour to be able to comment on the other account. After that, this account is gone. Good to see you on Kman. :)

Welcome back everyone! Let's make it a Great Hurricane Season (Well, You Know, the best it can possibly be) and keep the Troll spray on standby. Remember to -, ! and Ignore User if they are disrupting the blog.

I'll comment on this account a little longer, until my other account is freed up to comment. :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He got a lot wrong. I mean a lot.


I dont remember it that way..Ernesto in fact he got tore to pieces on here but he ended up being right..some bloggers never apologize on that one..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He does this May through November. I can tell you many stories. He his famous on here for his forecasts.
You don't have to tell me what I already know. Note I never said, "Don't say that!" My comment was "Wait until July." In June and November, kid will pick up on the WCar disturbances that are likely to form.

Give him his head in June, when such systems are climotologically favored. July to October, he can get slammed just the way the rest of us do when we say something off the wall.
Evening gang - post on !! - Rod
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wow, this shows you how strong the wind shear will be for 91L

Going to be difficult. Im giving it a 40% chance of developing into a Tropical Cyclone. This, in all odds, will likely not become Andrea.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Pretty much normal these days, especially for big setups in Kansas and Oklahoma.
The area where Samaras was killed was just east of the main pack, between the "C" in Union City and I-40.
I noticed that. I was commenting earlier that a large number of the automobile fatalities happened between there and the interstate to the NE...

There were 1/2 dozen vehicles in the area... wonder how the other chasers fared.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wow, this shows you how strong the wind shear will be for 91L


dont the wind shear maps only go out to 3 hours?
Quoting docrod:



Oh wow. Pleased you let me know. I am about to post my radar links to our office (Fl Keys) tomorrow morn but mentioned the pending operations in your area. Glad to hear from you ... good eve - Rod
Cayman doppler radar ribbon cutting ceremony
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Sorry haven't been commenting, been 1ing on my new account but I have to wait one more hour to be able to comment on the other account. After that, this account is gone. Good to see you on Kman. :)

Welcome back everyone! Let's make it a Great Hurricane Season (Well, You Know, the best it can possibly be) and keep the Troll spray on standby. Remember to -, ! and Ignore User if they are disrupting the blog.

I'll comment on this account a little longer, until my other account is freed up to comment. :)

So you're still going to leave this account up though, right? So you can still archive you blogs and such, but just never use it to post again.
I know there will be times that this year people will hate me more so when they find out I'm right
Quoting ncstorm:


last year though, he got many right..took a lot of heat on this blog..
I think kid's gotten better with time. And, contrary to some people's view, he's gotten better at commenting on systems NOT likely to impact the Caymans... ;o)

Frankly it's up to the kid to make himself sound more reasonable. However, that's no reason to act as if every single thing he says is crazy.
Quoting wxchaser97:

So you're still going to leave this account up though, right? So you can still archive you blogs and such, but just never use it to past again.
\
Exactly. Im using a new Account with my actual name... For the purpose of not hiding behind a fake name anymore. I plan to make a career of my passion for weather. So why not?
12z Euro
96 hours




Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Sorry haven't been commenting, been +1ing on my new account but I have to wait one more hour to be able to comment on the other account. After that, this account is gone. Good to see you on Kman. :)

Welcome back everyone! Let's make it a Great Hurricane Season (Well, You Know, the best it can possibly be) and keep the Troll spray on standby. Remember to -, ! and Ignore User if they are disrupting the blog.

I'll comment on this account a little longer, until my other account is freed up to comment. :)


Good to see you too. Happy blogging this season :-)
ncstorm, I'm not sure if you've saw, but Allan's webpage is back up. It got a new design.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ncstorm, I'm not sure if you've saw, but Allan's webpage is back up. It got a new design.

Link


Thanks TA! We got to pay now to view the models??
I am out for tonight. See you all tomorrow.

Good night
531. beell
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Pretty much normal these days, especially for big setups in Kansas and Oklahoma.
The area where Samaras was killed was just east of the main pack, between the "C" in Union City and I-40.


If the earlier report of the search area at the intersection of Radio Rd and (edit) NW 10th is correct, they were approx 1.5 miles S of I40. Just east of the NE tracking storm and not far from where it made the hard right to the east and parallel to I40.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
\
Exactly. Im using a new Account with my actual name... For the purpose of not hiding behind a fake name anymore. I plan to make a career of my passion for weather. So why not?

Ah ok, yeah I say go with it.

Oh and post, lol. Gotta love autocorrect right!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ncstorm, I'm not sure if you've saw, but Allan's webpage is back up. It got a new design.

Link

Sarcasm Flag: ON(*Jasoniscoolman moment*) WOWWWWWW!!!!!! THATS A BIG UPGRAGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anyway. That's a major upgrade for the better for the site. Great to see. :)
Quoting ncstorm:


Thanks TA! We got to pay now to view the models??

That appears to be the case, unfortunately. Guess I'll be finding another site to look at model data.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think kid's gotten better with time. And, contrary to some people's view, he's gotten better at commenting on systems NOT likely to impact the Caymans... ;o)

Frankly it's up to the kid to make himself sound more reasonable. However, that's no reason to act as if every single thing he says is crazy.

thanks Baha

Quoting kmanislander:


Good to see you too. Happy blogging this season :-)

hey Kman spoke with the boss the Radar should be up this week coming the boss was pretty angry that it was not up by the 1st but he said it should be up in the week
Looks like "whatever" becomes "something" off the east coast.Perhaps more favorable conditions.It's to early for this crap -_- Sandy wasn't that long ago.
Quoting BahaHurican:



This looks like around 100 chase vehicles in the tornado warned area on Friday afternoon. Is that normal, or were there more chasers than usual that afternoon?


This is alot compared to average. I think the location was convenient to many, it was expected to occur there that day on a multi-day outbreak which tends to bring out more chasers, kinda in the height of the spring tornado research for this year.. It unfolded in that spot in a way & time that got them to flock there. Maybe another odd in the stack of misfortune that made this a dangerous storm to chase.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Any high school graduates on here? And, are you going to major in meteorology?
You missed an EXCELLENT discussion here earlier this week on this very topic.... maybe tropix chat w/ some of the others?

Very exciting to see some more of our "cadet" class moving forward... lol

Quoting kmanislander:
Cayman doppler radar ribbon cutting ceremony
Hey, kman. Good to see you. I'm trying not to be too envious of the Caymans and JA with new radars... dunno when ours'll be replaced here. :o/
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I know there will be times that this year people will hate me more so when they find out I'm right


uhhh i tried to help ya out... :|
Quoting kmanislander:


Good to see you too. Happy blogging this season :-)


Glad to see you kman! I always pay attention to your posts.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That appears to be the case, unfortunately. Guess I'll be finding another site to look at model data.


So will I..
Looking at satellite loops....looks like the just north of cancun circulation blew itself out/ and a new and larger circulation has got some spin/turning SSE of Cancun?
Quoting ncstorm:


dont the wind shear maps only go out to 3 hours?


Models intensity like SHIPS evaluates patterns like the wind shear, relative humidity , SST ect, clearly the main problem for the system will be the shear, because the GOM is already with 28°C plenty of warm to support any kind of tropical cyclone!!!
No don't go Dean! Don't change your handle, keep it, I think a lot of us agree we like this one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That appears to be the case, unfortunately. Guess I'll be finding another site to look at model data.

:(
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think kid's gotten better with time. And, contrary to some people's view, he's gotten better at commenting on systems NOT likely to impact the Caymans... ;o)

Frankly it's up to the kid to make himself sound more reasonable. However, that's no reason to act as if every single thing he says is crazy.

hey Baha just to let you know I'm not a kid a matter of fact haven't been one for a few years :)
A new blog post regarding 91L and an update to my forecast from last blog. Hopefully it's simple enough to understand and if I made a mistake, correct it for me please. Also, make sure you leave a comment :) Thanks!

Bluestorm5's Blog

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

:(

That happened with Stormpulse.com Too. ;( It was a great website until they made a couple upgrades and made it to where you had to pay to be a member. Went to check and see what has happened the past year since I left the site, and they've put memberships upwards of $500! Insanity!
Yeah I like HurricaneDean07.It was a beautiful hurricane to track..until it ran into Mexico..
550. DDR
Good evening
Raining by the buckets in parts of north Trinidad,expecting about 3-4 inches by this time tomorrow.
Only SHFR
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looking at satellite loops....looks like the just north of cancun circulation blew itself out/ and a new and larger circulation has got some spin/turning SSE of Cancun?

there is one in the gulf of honduras as well as I said earlier its a trof of low pressures plus monsoon trof so there is likely to be several spin ups
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah I like HurricaneDean07.It was a beautiful hurricane to track..until it ran into Mexico..

... Do-what? LOL
Alright, don't fret.

You can find ecmwf data on FSU site and other models onLevi's site as well.

Unless you want to pay....
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Any high school graduates on here? And, are you going to major in meteorology?


I ams sure there are alot of high school graduates here. I graduated in the early 1990's, Grothar graduated before the calendar was invented...

I didn't major in Meteorology in College though, sorry.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

... Do-what? LOL

lol
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

... Do-what? LOL
Well we know its not your fault HurricaneDean07.The real hurricane was a beast on steroids.If memory serves me correctly it hit cat 5 two times.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
No don't go Dean! Don't change your handle, keep it, I think a lot of us agree we like this one.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah I like HurricaneDean07.It was a beautiful hurricane to track..until it ran into Mexico..

Its not like Im leaving! Im just using my ACTUAL name... Besides, If I were to get an internship with NASA next summer, I'd like to have proof of the blogs I make being from me and not some "RANDOM" username that could be "Anyone"
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thanks Baha


hey Kman spoke with the boss the Radar should be up this week coming the boss was pretty angry that it was not up by the 1st but he said it should be up in the week
[darkly] Don't make me regret it...

lol

Actually I was thinking earlier today about how the models were starting with something closer to Panama last month... with the isthmus crossing Barbara added to the mix, I think that did change the focus somewhat. I think when this thing does tighten up it's more likely to do so near the N end of the Yucatan, but we shall see. I am also curious what is going to happen with the energy from the Twave currently approaching the islands... is it going to die off? or survive into the WCar and EPac?
First year I planned to attempt at forecasting hurricanes and Allan decided to updates his website and make you pay for it. Great. There's other sites so... oh well.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey Baha just to let you know I'm not a kid a matter of fact haven't been one for a few years :)
Yeah, I know that... I'm thinking more like Kid Curry, a badman of the Wild Bunch fame... lol... u know, a famous Old West gunslinger...

Quoting DDR:
Good evening
Raining by the buckets in parts of north Trinidad,expecting about 3-4 inches by this time tomorrow.
Hey, DDR... guess this means the ITCZ is in your area?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, DDR... guess this means the ITCZ is in your area?

Not sure if DDR is still here...

But yeah, ITCZ is surely here.
Some heavy stuff last week and over the w/e.
564. DDR
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, DDR... guess this means the ITCZ is in your area?

Hey Baha
Yes itcz coupled with a wave,i'm loving it.
Tribute Video To Twistex Team of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
First year I planned to attempt at forecasting hurricanes and Allan decided to updates his website and make you pay for it. Great. There's other sites so... oh well.


Well,only product that I was interested in this page was the EURO...:(
567. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Not sure if DDR is still here...

But yeah, ITCZ is surely here.
Some heavy stuff last week and over the w/e.

I'm here pottery,how you doing?
Its been pouring up here since 8pm.
Quoting pottery:

Not sure if DDR is still here...

But yeah, ITCZ is surely here.
Some heavy stuff last week and over the w/e.


Hi pottery and DDR. Look what is approaching you.

Unsurprisingly, convection is not organized:

Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I know that... I'm thinking more like Kid Curry, a badman of the Wild Bunch fame... lol... u know, a famous Old West gunslinger...


lol


looking at radars from Cancun and Cuba the spin that was seen on sat and radar has now fizz out (not talking about first spin I'm talking second spin)

looking at Belize radar I do see a weak signature of a circulation and it building slowly I expect it to quicken once it moves further away from land
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Unsurprisingly, convection is not organized:


Its starting to get affected by DMIN as well.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi pottery and DDR. Look what is approaching you.

That is the Twave I was mentioning earlier... should be through to the central / western CAR by midweek...
Quoting Dakster:


I ams sure there are alot of high school graduates here. I graduated in the early 1990's, Grothar graduated before the calendar was invented...

I didn't major in Meteorology in College though, sorry.


Gro didn't graduate! He stopped going to school to help dad plow the fields and bring in the mud harvest!
By then they had those fancy 1 room schoolhouses and he has been learning ever since! :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That appears to be the case, unfortunately. Guess I'll be finding another site to look at model data.


He will be losing a lot of traffic on his site, too bad
HD07... how long till u can post w/ your new handle?
577. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi pottery and DDR. Look what is approaching you.


Always welcomed,thanks Tropics
With the death of Tim Samarras and his son, as well as Mike Bettes' close call, I am thinking stormchasers are being a bit reckless this year.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wow, this shows you how strong the wind shear will be for 91L

Wow those models are just going overboard!!!

I think I will wait until July to get my hopes up for an invest
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wow, this shows you how strong the wind shear will be for 91L
Quite Impressive.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Its not like Im leaving! Im just using my ACTUAL name... Besides, If I were to get an internship with NASA next summer, I'd like to have proof of the blogs I make being from me and not some "RANDOM" username that could be "Anyone"

Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.
Where is StormW?
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Stay Dry - Hang Loose
Quoting tropicalnewbee:


Gro didn't graduate! He stopped going to school to help dad plow the fields and bring in the mud harvest!
By then they had those fancy 1 room schoolhouses and he has been learning ever since! :)


He did mention having to runaway or fend off Dino's on the way to school.
I have a question..

what determins how wide a tornado can become?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


He will be losing a lot of traffic on his site, too bad
just took the site off my bookmarks
Quoting auburn:
I have a question..

what determins how wide a tornado can become?


Ice cream and Oreos, baby.
Quoting Walshy:
Where is StormW?


Anybody care to tackle this...?
Quoting Walshy:
Where is StormW?


Edit
Quoting HurricaneDean07:


Anybody care to tackle this...?


http://www.stormw.com/

Quoting Dakster:


I ams sure there are alot of high school graduates here. I graduated in the early 1990's, Grothar graduated before the calendar was invented...

I didn't major in Meteorology in College though, sorry.


I'm not planning on majoring in meteorology - I don't even think UT Austin has a meteorology program.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Here is my blog/web site. http://www.stormw.com/

I was permanently banned three years ago, but I have been using this handle to lurk.


haha
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

what was a circulation there is now an open trof with good curvature
597. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That appears to be the case, unfortunately. Guess I'll be finding another site to look at model data.


You should drop him a note of thanks for the free ride and wish him well.

:-)

Quoting washingtonian115:
Depends on if I'm not in a lazy mood.

Please try not to spam the blog..
I read all the comments before I post and the blog only when it interest me.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
With the death of Tim Samarras and his son, as well as Mike Bettes' close call, I am thinking stormchasers are being a bit reckless this year.


Or maybe weather's just capricious. I heard of a couple chasers getting pinned to a garage wall during Charley in 2004. These things happen, it's a chance you take.
Meh, I think I'll just pay the $10 a month to use Huffman's site. Not a big deal.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what was a circulation there is now an open trof with good curvature


I just love curvature!
Well guys its almost that time... :) Next comment will be my last on this account ;) BitterSweet.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Or maybe weather's just capricious. I heard of a couple chasers getting pinned to a garage wall during Charley in 2004. These things happen, it's a chance you take.


I want to be a chaser, but you will NEVER catch me going into a category 4.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I want to be a chaser, but you will NEVER catch me going into a category 4.


There are two primary ways I'd like to die:

A) Peacefully
B) Storm chasing

The former would be less painful, though. ;)
Quoting beell:


You should drop him a note of thanks for the free ride and wish him well.

:-)

Yeah, we should all thanks him for the free models! Wishing him good luck with taking the website to the whole new level!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I just love curvature!

lol
I'd prefer not to die at all.. actually. :)
Quoting Walshy:
Where is StormW?

Doing foot massages?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Or maybe weather's just capricious. I heard of a couple chasers getting pinned to a garage wall during Charley in 2004. These things happen, it's a chance you take.

People blame that Storm chasers are being "More Reckless" but this was a very difficult and rare event to deal with. There was a lot of factors that brought this whole mess into the bad situation that trapped many on the Highways.
1. It was a Storm that produced Duel SuperCells that spawned many mesocyclones, which at one point created 5 tornado signatures, which caused panic and a lot less of an area to escape.

2. It was near a populated area during rush hour.

3. There was miscommunication that caused panic with citizens that had already gotten home, and they were advised to head out on the roads once again. which only clogged roads further.

4. There was a lot of moisture and heavy rainfall that was downpouring during the height of the storms which caused the tornadoes to be rainwrapped and not easily visible.

This was not a situation that could've been seen by anyone without being actually already inside the storm. It was just unfortunately bad that people like Tim, Carl, and Paul, as well as many others that got caught up in the unseen.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

yeah kinda right I guess
I currently makin my own graphic
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

People blame that Storm chasers are being "More Reckless" but this was a very difficult and rare event to deal with. There was a lot of factors that brought this whole mess into the bad situation that trapped many on the Highways.
1. It was a Storm that produced Duel SuperCells that spawned many mesocyclones, which at one point created 5 tornado signatures, which caused panic and a lot less of an area to escape.

2. It was near a populated during rush hour.

3. There was miscommunication that caused panic with citizens that had already gotten home, and they were advised to head out on the roads once again. which only clogged roads further.

4. There was a lot of moisture and heavy rainfall that was downpouring during the height of the storms which caused the tornadoes to be rainwrapped and not easily visible.

This was not a situation that could've been seen by anyone without being actually already inside the storm. It was just unfortunately bad that people like Tim, Carl, and Paul, as well as many others that got caught up in the unseen.

You lied! You said the post before this post was your last post but it wasn't your last post!!
Omg I hate when my country takes off the lights in my city humidity is being such a bug right now and I can tolerate the hot weather right now is unbelivable.
ps if anyone comes to Honduras remember that blackouts are constant and specially in Summer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You lied! You said the post before this post was your last post but it wasn't your last post!!

;) I meant to add that to the comment, just forgot. The next one I make will be my last ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You lied! You said the post before this post was your last post but it wasn't your last post!!

He's been saying the same thing for hours
Bogus
anyway, night all
00z GFS 24 hours
Quoting Chicklit:

He's been saying the same thing for hours
Bogus
anyway, night all
He's waiting for the 24 hr wait period to expire...
Quoting FunnelVortex:
With the death of Tim Samarras and his son, as well as Mike Bettes' close call, I am thinking stormchasers are being a bit reckless this year.


Tim/Paul/Carl were not "reckless". They were actually trying to conduct a very important project and were compromised by a multi-vortex tornado with winds well over 100 m/s (confirmed by at least TWO OUN research teams). They dedicated their lives to trying to improve warnings and save other peoples lives and aren't even close to the idiots that are getting all the attention on CNN and TWC.

Tim was one of the best chasers in the history of the business and shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as Bettes.
Last Comment. :) Its been Great Everybody.
45 hr
Quoting Walshy:
Where is StormW?

You'll never find Him on this blog again after what happened on this blog a few years ago. But you can find him >> here <<
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Last Comment. :) Its been Great Everybody.
RIP HurricaneDean07 account... October 2010 to June 2013. 4,130 comments well spent on this blog. We shall miss it.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Tim/Paul/Carl were not "reckless". They were actually trying to conduct a very important project and were compromised by a multi-vortex tornado with winds well over 100 m/s (confirmed by at least TWO OUN research teams). They dedicated their lives to trying to improve warnings and save other peoples lives and aren't even close to the idiots that are getting all the attention on CNN and TWC.

Tim was one of the best chasers in the history of the business and shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as Bettes.


Source? Interesting that the NWS didn't agree.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Tim/Paul/Carl were not "reckless". They were actually trying to conduct a very important project and were compromised by a multi-vortex tornado with winds well over 100 m/s (confirmed by at least TWO OUN research teams). They dedicated their lives to trying to improve warnings and save other peoples lives and aren't even close to the idiots that are getting all the attention on CNN and TWC.

Tim was one of the best chasers in the history of the business and shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as Bettes.
Bettes still has a lot to learn about tornado chasing and research.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Tim/Paul/Carl were not "reckless". They were actually trying to conduct a very important project and were compromised by a multi-vortex tornado with winds well over 100 m/s (confirmed by at least TWO OUN research teams). They dedicated their lives to trying to improve warnings and save other peoples lives and aren't even close to the idiots that are getting all the attention on CNN and TWC.

Tim was one of the best chasers in the history of the business and shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as Bettes.


Everyone is allowed an opinion, it might not be correct but they are allowed it.

Most of us know what Tim Samaras and his crew were about. They weren't storm chasers but Tornado scientist.

Remembering Tim Samaras: Veteran Storm Chaser Killed in Okla. Tornado

Video
dunt dunt dunt dunt
Quoting BahaHurican:
Bettes still has a lot to learn.


Bettes is experienced with hurricanes, not tornadoes. Big difference.
54 hr

60 hr?
Hey guys...

Looks like our new Invest (91-L) is organizing a bit tonight....

Now...I am thinking we are going to have a weak tropical depression or tropical storm to watch with this one this week....here is my best guess on what could happen...

I am thinking next 24 hours...as central US upper trough pushes eastward across Gulf...the favorable upper ridge center will be pushed southeast into the western Caribbean...and I think the broad circulation will relocate/regenerate southeastward from its current Yucatan position into the NW Caribbean as a result.

Models then show the upper ridge re-building over the NW Caribbean & Cuba behind the departing central US upper trough and ahead of the next upper trough...so I am thinking this thing will slowly organize into a tropical cyclone beneath this upper ridge between 48 and 96 hrs from now...all the while being stationary and bringing lots of rain to west Cuba...Florida Keys...south Florida...and western Bahamas....

Between 96 and 120 hrs...the next upper trough pushes in and pulls the tropical cyclone NE across west Cuba/south Florida area...into the W Atlantic where it then becomes frontal...
Quoting BahaHurican:
dunt dunt dunt dunt


The standing water on the road by our airport is just unbelievable.
Sorry, just had to say that to you :p
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Source? Interesting that the NWS didn't agree.

100m/s = 223.69mph = 360km/h = 194.38kts
Quoting KoritheMan:


Bettes is experienced with hurricanes, not tornadoes. Big difference.
Didn't mean generally [though it did come across that way, din in?]. I will edit.
Hey Everyone. Im new here so, just want to say Hi. :)

Wink wink. LOL So How's it going?
69 hr

75 hr, wtf with the GFS?
Anyway, yeah yeah RIP Dean07... I get it sad times. :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Source? Interesting that the NWS didn't agree.
Might because it's higher up in tornado. Scott earlier said DOW is usually sampling higher up in tornado.
Still looks like 2 circulations kinda dumbelling around each other,the northern one by cancun looked to just fire a storm near its center......and the other one is SSE of cancun....just my old eyes
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Hey Everyone. Im new here so, just want to say Hi. :)

Wink wink. LOL So How's it going?

Welcome to the blog, glad to have someone new, lol :P

The new account sounds/looks good.

Quoting Thrawst:


The standing water on the road by our airport is just unbelievable.
Sorry, just had to say that to you :p
I'm not surprised... I went out there last week after the first round, and was astounded to see how much water was in the road near Coral Harbour, but not in the actual airport itself. If you understand that that entire area was originally the western edge of the Lake Killarney swamps, you might not be so surprised. The reckless and unstructured paving out there hasn't helped...
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Hey Everyone. Im new here so, just want to say Hi. :)

Wink wink. LOL So How's it going?


TylerStanfield=HurricaneDean07
Quoting AussieStorm:

100m/s = 223.69mph = 360km/h = 194.38kts


I know that rofl, I can read fluent metric.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hey guys...

Looks like our new Invest (91-L) is organizing a bit tonight....

Now...I am thinking we are going to have a weak tropical depression or tropical storm to watch with this one this week....here is my best guess on what could happen...

I am thinking next 24 hours...as central US upper trough pushes eastward across Gulf...the favorable upper ridge center will be pushed southeast into the western Caribbean...and I think the broad circulation will relocate/regenerate southeastward from its current Yucatan position into the NW Caribbean as a result.

Models then show the upper ridge re-building over the NW Caribbean & Cuba behind the departing central US upper trough and ahead of the next upper trough...so I am thinking this thing will slowly organize into a tropical cyclone beneath this upper ridge between 48 and 96 hrs from now...all the while being stationary and bringing lots of rain to west Cuba...Florida Keys...south Florida...and western Bahamas....

Between 96 and 120 hrs...the next upper trough pushes in and pulls the tropical cyclone NE across west Cuba/south Florida area...into the W Atlantic where it then becomes frontal...

That's the Best case scenario. Worst Case is that the low stays disorganized, sheared and stays an open trough and drenches Florida and the East Coast.
Quoting stormchaser19:


TylerStanfield=HurricaneDean07

Thanks for the Clarification. ;)
Aha... Tyler... that is easy to remember...
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Hey Everyone. Im new here so, just want to say Hi. :)

Wink wink. LOL So How's it going?


Ah, you reminded me of a quote from another forum.

"You will never leave (insert creepy look)"
well, unless you screw up.

But welcome.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Aha... Tyler... that is easy to remember...

Actually, I remember Ive said my name once before on the blog, Gro and TA may remember, but anyway. :) Back to Blogging as usual :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Tim/Paul/Carl were not "reckless". They were actually trying to conduct a very important project and were compromised by a multi-vortex tornado with winds well over 100 m/s (confirmed by at least TWO OUN research teams). They dedicated their lives to trying to improve warnings and save other peoples lives and aren't even close to the idiots that are getting all the attention on CNN and TWC.

Tim was one of the best chasers in the history of the business and shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as Bettes.

Could we get a source for this please? TIA.
Night guys :)
I know I just started commenting, but I didn't make this account until late last night, and so my 24 hour "Newbie Ban" from Dr. Masters blog just expired.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Source? Interesting that the NWS didn't agree.


Source please?

And the data isn't for public use.

Only accessible for OUN Met students and researchers

Meteorologists:

"Update: Sounds like there was VORTEX2-type radar coverage on yesterday's supercell. DOWs, 3 OU groups, Tech, NSSL all were on it. Good news."

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchas er20079/American%20Stuff/ScreenHunter_52Jun030001. png


See, the minute you said your name I remember all the teasing... lol...

Now I can go to sleep in peace.
Now its all up to KOUN to see if they use the data or not.

It took a while for them to reluctantly use the 113 m/s wind in the 2010 El Reno tornado

Personally with the 293+ knot velocities, I think its likely.
99hr


Quoting TylerStanfield:

That's the Best case scenario. Worst Case is that the low stays disorganized, sheared and stays an open trough and drenches Florida and the East Coast.

Welcome aboard by the way!

I'd still be concerned about some drenching for western Cuba...south Florida...Florida Keys...and western Bahamas as this thing is going to be stalled in this region between now and 96 hrs...this circulation looks like its getting trapped between the building central US low-level ridge and Atlantic ridge until the next upper trough comes in and erodes the central US ridge...

I think the model representations are too far west with this thing...that upper ridge that is supporting this system in the first place is going to get knocked southeast into the NW Caribbean in the next 24 hours..and so with broad systems like this the center can regenerate basically where the core of the upper ridge ends up. That's why I favor a W Cuba...south Florida...W Bahamas...W Atlantic track.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Source please?

And the data isn't for public use.

Only accessible for OUN Met students and researchers

Meteorologists:

"Update: Sounds like there was VORTEX2-type radar coverage on yesterday's supercell. DOWs, 3 OU groups, Tech, NSSL all were on it. Good news."

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchas er20079/American%20Stuff/ScreenHunter_52Jun030001. png


Which forum is that again? So you're suggesting we might get an EF5 ranking for this monster?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Source please?

And the data isn't for public use.

Only accessible for OUN Met students and researchers

Meteorologists:

"Update: Sounds like there was VORTEX2-type radar coverage on yesterday's supercell. DOWs, 3 OU groups, Tech, NSSL all were on it. Good news."

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchas er20079/American%20Stuff/ScreenHunter_52Jun030001. png




My bad, and thanks!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


My bad, and thanks!


Just messing with you, and no problem. I'll post more info as it comes my way.
Quoting stormchaser19:
99hr




Oh my.Look how many lows are in the graphic. Over 30 lows and only 7 highs.
Quoting Skyepony:
Tribute Video To Twistex Team of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young.
Nice ...

I thought he put it well, when he said that you know you've made it in life, when you get a pay check for something you love to do.
My graphic on W Carib/Yucatan AOI



yellow lines trofs and tropical waves
red Ls lows
blue lines with triangles front
orange lines streamline winds
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Which forum is that again? So you're suggesting we might get an EF5 ranking for this monster?


The preliminary data surely supports it. Norman just has to decided whether or not to use it. Since there are multiple sources, I think it's possible.

Hell, even the Phased Array Radar network measured some insane winds.

And that forum is americanwx.com
G'night all...
Going for my first forecast for the 2013 season.
Kinda early as I still want to see better model runs from the GFS and midlevel air patterns over the GOM for weds-thurs but it appears 2 things will happen.

1 Shear
2 Dry air

GFS has been constant also on 2 things

1 Convective feedback errors
2 Inverted trough along 88W

#2 will probably happen... GFS has convection feedback errors and that trys to push a weak low N causing a inverted trough. While a trough is expected to extend north.. I think the GFS is overplaying the Blobing of the T-Storms...probably be more widespread over the easter gulf. A LLC should though form from the inverted trough. Now the shear should pull most of the moisture east accross florida and dry air in the midlevel will enter the LLC. A new low should develop near the convection on Thurs just west of Florida or east of Florida Thur night..the position of the GFS 120hrs out seems reasonable and is in good agreement with the 12Z Euro. Question to many is... will this become a Tropical Storm before Florida? right now, it's too hard to tell cause of the convective feedback problems the GFS is having and not wanting to strengthen this much before the pull across florida. If the system gets organized enough Thurs before crossing the state, then I would say Yes. But it's hard to tell as of this post.I expect a LLC to form Tues night or Weds around 86W and 26N then dry air and shear take over....then a new LLC will develop in the convection as it nears florida and crosses the state. There is a better chance for a tropical storm by Friday just east of Daytona. Will know more in 12-14hrs
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The preliminary data surely supports it. Norman just has to decided whether or not to use it. Since there are multiple sources, I think it's possible.

Hell, even the Phased Array Radar network measured some insane velocities.

And that forum is americanwx.com


What's unusual is that none of the damage observed supports anything beyond EF3, this leads me to suspect that the El Reno tornado rapidly intensified right as it swerved unexpectedly, and rapidly weakened.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The preliminary data surely supports it. Norman just has to decided whether or not to use it. Since there are multiple sources, I think it's possible.

Hell, even the Phased Array Radar network measured some insane velocities.

And that forum is americanwx.com
Ok, thank you for responding! Keep us informed!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
My graphic on W Carib/Yucatan AOI



yellow lines trofs and tropical waves
red Ls lows
blue lines with triangles front
orange lines streamline winds

Well, you are almost graduate of paint, I'm few grades down of you Lol!!! :D
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Now its all up to KOUN to see if they use the data or not.

It took a while for them to reluctantly use the 113 m/s wind in the 2010 El Reno tornado

Personally with the 293 knot velocities, I think its likely.


I believe the peak was 298kts, I didn't think winds that intense could be recorded on this planet.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Now its all up to KOUN to see if they use the data or not.

It took a while for them to reluctantly use the 113 m/s wind in the 2010 El Reno tornado

Personally with the 293+ knot velocities, I think its likely.

SHEAR not velocities.
668. DDR
2.4 inches and a lot more coming
Barbados radarLink
Quoting ScottLincoln:

SHEAR not velocities.
Your opinion on DOW winds measurement along with 300 knots shear?
CMC 5 HOURS hahaha
Quoting stormchaser19:

Well, you are almost graduate of paint, I'm few grades down of you Lol!!! :D

I could have done better but I was rushing

Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC 5 HOURS hahaha

nah
Quoting ScottLincoln:

SHEAR not velocities.


Ah Mr. Lincoln,

I'm not sure I would call it shear since the velo bins never actually met one another. There was serious range folding and I consider it somewhat suspect.

(And I must say, I am a fan of your work)

Link



Quoting Bluestorm5:
Your opinion on DOW winds measurement along with 300 knots shear?
Hard to say without seeing the data.
Just have to make sure we do not confuse shear and velocity once again.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Ah Mr. Lincoln,

I'm not sure I would call it shear since the velo bins never actually met one another. There was serious range folding and I consider it somewhat suspect.

(And I must say, I am a fan of your work)

Link




Shear is the speed difference divided by the distance. They do not need to be next to one another. The roughly 275mph of shear off of the NEXRAD during the event is NOT velocity. And it wasn't at the surface, either.
I say the speed of something in a given direction, you say the variation in wind velocity occurring along a direction at right angles to the wind's direction and tending to exert a turning force

Link

Quoting ScottLincoln:
Hard to say without seeing the data.
Just have to make sure we do not confuse shear and velocity once again.
A meteorologist on AmericanWX forum "heard" that the data from two DOWs all showed above 100 m/s winds. He also heard that there were many teams from different places measuring the tornado as well.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Shear is the speed difference divided by the distance. They do not need to be next to one another. The roughly 275mph of shear off of the NEXRAD during the event is NOT velocity. And it wasn't at the surface, either.
In an idealized environment (perfect beam propagation, perfectly symmetrical tornado, no debris, blah blah blah), couldn't we use shear to determine velocity?
CMC 72 HAHAHA

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Shear is the speed difference divided by the distance. They do not need to be next to one another. The roughly 275mph of shear off of the NEXRAD during the event is NOT velocity. And it wasn't at the surface, either.


Well aware of that.

I believe the sampling was about 2500 feet or so. 300 knots at the surface would be unfathomable

Enough beating the dead horse though...

This was an intense tornado and I'm looking forward to seeing the data from the research groups.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
A meteorologist on AmericanWX forum "heard" that the data from two DOWs all showed above 100 m/s winds. He also heard that there were many teams from different places measuring the tornado as well.
I would have to see the data or an analysis of the data. It wouldnt be prudent to make conclusions off hearsay. My gut feeling was that EF3 might be too low, but most times we are bound by the available damage indicators.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
I would have to see the data or an analysis of the data. It wouldnt be prudent to make conclusions off hearsay. My gut feeling was that EF3 might be too low, but most times we are bound by the available damage indicators.
Gotcha. We'll see. NWS mets are pro for a reason and not us on WU (except for you, of course).
CMC is crazy,the pressure still dropping in land!!!

Quoting TomTaylor:
In an idealized environment (perfect beam propagation, perfectly symmetrical tornado, no debris, blah blah blah), couldn't we add use shear to determine velocity?
why use the shear as a proxy? To calculate the shear, you needed two opposing velocities, so just use the velocities you started with the get shear. In this case, we had 190kts and 100kts. But remember, that is an estimate, and the radar couldn't actually sample above that VCPs Nyquist velocity, so it was a dealias algorithm that reconstructed that number. And even if correct (it may be) it was not ground velocity.
The "Old" El Reno Tornado

Besides the Bridge Creek event, only one other E/F5 tornado has been analyzed by mobile doppler radar. The El Reno, Oklahoma, EF5 tornado formed on May 24th, 2011, during a large scale outbreak that also produced the deadly Joplin tornado two days earlier. The tornado killed nine people and left a streak of scoured earth as it thundered through rural areas west and north of Oklahoma City. Though still not officially made public, a rapid scanning mobile radar recorded a radial velocity of 280 mph (125 m/s) about 220 ft above ground level early in the tornado’s life. The tornado was given an EF5 rating based on the doppler measurement, and its intensity is currently quoted in NWS literature as having been “greater than 210mph” at ground level. The mobile radar team was only able to follow the tornado for part of its 65-mile long path, so it is very possible the tornado had higher winds in later stages of its life.

http://extremeplanet.me/2012/07/03/highest-winds- measured-in-several-different-tornadoes/
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Gotcha. We'll see. NWS mets are pro for a reason and not us on WU (except for you, of course).
if there is as much data as rumors suggest, there will be so much expert attention paid to this case, it will trump anything I have to say.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
why use the shear as a proxy? To calculate the shear, you needed two opposing velocities, so just use the velocities you started with the get shear. In this case, we had 190kts and 100kts. But remember, that is an estimate, and the radar couldn't actually sample above that VCPs Nyquist velocity, so it was a dealias algorithm that reconstructed that number. And even if correct (it may be) it was not ground velocity.
So you're saying in an idealized environment we'd just use one velocity then?
I think the CMC is just saying the pressure was dropping right till landfall and it takes a couple hours for it to turn around. So it probably leveled off around 102hrs.

Still I think it's overdone, but again, time will tell. Need the 0z Euro
Quoting ScottLincoln:
if there is as much data as rumors suggest, there will be so much expert attention paid to this case, it will trump anything I have to say.
Yeah, it'll be very interesting to see what the final conclusion on 2013 El Reno/Union City tornado will be. NWS Norman still got TBD all over the tornado.
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC 72 HAHAHA

Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC is crazy,the pressure still dropping in land!!!


kick CMC out the door
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

kick CMC out the door

Nahh the CMC is showing the worst case scenario i guess!!!
I used to print out basin charts on 8.5x11" printer paper and tape them together, took a couple hours to do and most of the weight was tape instead of paper.



Happily, having access to a plotter permits one to produce larger charts much faster, too.

Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC is crazy,the pressure still dropping in land!!!

Fay is that you?
Quoting allancalderini:
Fay is that you?
My personal favorite as far as Tropical Storms go. What a wacky storm Fay was.

Also I promised shelf cloud photos I took earlier. Will get them up ASAP.

Looking at them now shows they did not turn out so well. I wish I had a proper camera. Uploading anyway.
I made a new blog about praying for the tornado victims.You can go on my blog and pray or just speak to God on what you feel.
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC is crazy,the pressure still dropping in land!!!


I've been saying this for two days. The CMC shows a path over Panama City Beach directly to my house in Eufaula, Al. No matter how big tropical storms get or where they go, we never get any rain Eufaula. We are always on the dry side of any storm. Hence, the CMC is totally wrong and can be completely discounted. In any case, assuming it survives, 91L is never going to be more than a blob in any case.

BTW, we finally did get .08 inches of rain from our toad choker earlier this afternoon. It was enough to make steam rise from the streets, but my lawn still looks dead. :-(
as expected no change

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS
. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR
DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Ugh. So disappointing. Did not really capture it.

Great and its sideways.
Quoting sar2401:

I've been saying this for two days. The CMC shows a path over Panama City Beach directly to my house in Eufaula, Al. No matter how big tropical storms get or where they go, we never get any rain Eufaula. We are always on the dry side of any storm. Hence, the CMC is totally wrong and can be completely discounted. In any case, assuming it survives, 91L is never going to be more than a blob in any case.

BTW, we finally did get .08 inches of rain from our toad choker earlier this afternoon. It was enough to make steam rise from the streets, but my lawn still looks dead. :-(

I don't think 91L should have been tagged yet
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ugh. So disappointing. Did not really capture it.

Great and its sideways.

Except for the crick in my neck, it looks like a pretty good shelf cloud to me. :-)
Quoting sar2401:

Except for the crick in my neck, it looks like a pretty good shelf cloud to me. :-)
Yes but it was really quite spectacular. Trying to find peoples other photos of it.
Here is one:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ugh. So disappointing. Did not really capture it.

Great and its sideways.
did u try to rotate the pic off the phone then save it
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes but it was really quite spectacular. Trying to find peoples other photos of it.
Here is one:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ugh. So disappointing. Did not really capture it.

Great and its sideways.
At least you try :D and the intention is what matters.
Quoting allancalderini:
At least you try :D and the intention is what matters.
Yeah. I am just glad I got to see it. I would chase myself but Georgia country is not to friendly to storm chasers.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yeah. I am just glad I got to see it. I would chase myself but Georgia country is not to friendly to storm chasers.
They are really really weird the last one was in 2012 and they are likely EF=0
I knew that the Friday storms gave many storm chasers close calls (particularly Mike Bettes and his crew), but I didn't know until reading Dr. Master's blog that storm chasers actually died.

I hate people dying, particularly those who are just trying to advance science to save lives. They've brought much praise to their family for putting the lives of others first before themselves (they were raised right). Those were good people who died. I am sorry for your loss.
Quoting allancalderini:
They are really really weird the last one was in 2012 and they are likely EF=0
I had an EF3 this January not to far north of me. They do tend to be weak though and from linear lines.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I had an EF3 this January not to far north of me. They do tend to be weak though and from linear lines.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I had an EF3 this January not to far north of me. They do tend to be weak though and from linear lines.
you live in Georgia I suppose I live in Honduras.
Just released my 4th blog update of the 2013 Atlantic season....

I think 91-L will become a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or tropical storm) within the next 5 days...and give details on how I think it will happen. Details in special feature section of that blog post...
June 2

June 8
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yeah. I am just glad I got to see it. I would chase myself but Georgia country is not to friendly to storm chasers.

Really, trying to chase storms in Alabama and Georgia is both unrewarding and dangerous. Except for those rare outbreaks, most of our tornadoes are fairly weak and are short path events. Even the stronger storms tend to be rain wrapped, and a tornado can pop out right on top of you. Our normal summertime visibility is pretty poor, and it's even worse in bad weather. At least on the plains, you have some chance of seeing a tornado on the ground and staying out of the way...although Friday's events tragically showed that isn't always true either.
Quoting sar2401:

Really, trying to chase storms in Alabama and Georgia is both unrewarding and dangerous. Except for those rare outbreaks, most of our tornadoes are fairly weak and are short path events. Even the stronger storms tend to be rain wrapped, and a tornado can pop out right on top of you. Our normal summertime visibility is pretty poor, and it's even worse in bad weather. At least on the plains, you have some chance of seeing a tornado on the ground and staying out of the way...although Friday's events tragically showed that isn't always true either.
Honestly, if I do go storm chasing in the future (might only do this once or twice in my lifetime), I'm staying away from the South. Too much trees. Central North Carolina and Central South Carolina are not too bad, but they don't get anything strong.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I had an EF3 this January not to far north of me. They do tend to be weak though and from linear lines.
I had an EF3 shaving part of my town on April 16, 2011 here. I was only few miles from it although I never saw it.
Quoting allancalderini:
you live in Georgia I suppose I live in Honduras.

Where in Honduras? I spent a couple of weeks in Catacamas three years ago in July. We had a relatively small tropical storm come ashore and the amount of rainfall was amazing. It was three days before they could clear the roads and we could leave. It's not the kind of place I want to be during hurricane season again.
Quoting bigwes6844:



Those water temperatures are actually a little on the cool side, or least so I remember from my scuba diving trips in many of those locations.
Quoting sar2401:

Those water temperatures are actually a little on the cool side, or least so I remember from my scuba diving trips in many of those locations.
Yeah i see that but surprising me is that near Pensacola its still 78. One would think the 91L thing would not develop with that cool water if it persist.
Quoting sar2401:

Those water temperatures are actually a little on the cool side, or least so I remember from my scuba diving trips in many of those locations.

Heres another look at where the potential 91L maybe headed towards water temps.


As we mourn the loss of brave souls who put instruments into the tornadoes path, and the injured storm chasers at TWC; I found these curious forecast graphics doing some digging around in my non-published files. Apparently I had become almost obsessed with this particular area of interest, culminating in the forecast that I published here on March 27, 2013(Post 978.) I'll typically create several graphics, and then choose the one I like best to convey the forecast I'm trying to depict.





Who could of imagined that in 2013 this trail of tears would lead to a news focus of demolished cars with their "roofs partly caved in" as opposed to homes and businesses, which are typically the focus in the aftermath of a violent tornado.

In my curious nightmare, I only saw the aftermath, not the storm in progress, and my primary focus was on the cars I saw, not homes or businesses. I simply assumed that the cause was giant hail, but in retrospect hail would not likely have caused the type of damage that I saw. What I saw was far too devastating. So why was the primary focus on the cars I saw? I think I have the answer.

In the future, I'll simply report what I see, not guess as to the cause I suspect, as it would have been a more accurate forecast. The region affected, however, and the curious focus of the vehicle damage that resulted, were correct.
720. TXCWC
Are you kidding me...I am gone a day or two off the net and now find out Allen Huffman's site is now PAID subscription to access GFS and all other models except the rap...no thank you...will look elsewhere for model data :/
Quoting TXCWC:
Are you kidding me...I am gone a day or two off the net and now find out Allen Huffman's site is now PAID subscription to access GFS and all other models except the rap...no thank you...will look elsewhere for model data :/


You can't find those products just anywhere. I don't consider $99 per year an unfair price considering the quality of his products, anyway.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can't find those products just anywhere. I don't consider $99 per year an unfair price considering the quality of his products, anyway.

yeah but remember unlike some of us they don't take storm tacking and trop. meteorology as a profession it rather more of a hobby and some just don't think its worth it
NHC's 24-72 hour forecast map are out and NHC does not develop the low anymore a matter of fact NHC doesn't even have a low anymore
anyway I'm out be back in a few hours
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah but remember unlike some of us they don't take storm tacking and trop. meteorology as a profession it rather more of a hobby and some just don't think its worth it


True. I can't imagine writing my forecasts without Allan's page, though.
I'm going to bed. Check out my blog created few hours ago if you like:

Bluestorm5's Blog from June 2nd, 2013
727. TXCWC
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can't find those products just anywhere. I don't consider $99 per year an unfair price considering the quality of his products, anyway.


Don't get me wrong, I understand the business angle and wanting to grow...but after YEARS of free access to go suddenly to a paid access is a bit of a shock...especially when living and barely getting by paycheck to paycheck...will simply be going to Noaa's model pgs and the British Met model page more as well as other sites...now off my vent for the night...carry on :)
goodnight to all work in a few. yall be good






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN THROUGH THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH BELT OF FASTER
WLYS CONFINED TO NRN TIER STATES. UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO
WILL ADVANCE INTO QUEBEC...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT THAT WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS AREAS...

LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG SLY LLJ EAST OF LEE
TROUGH. THIS PROCESS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL
RESULT IN AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH
CNTRL NEB...WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY LIKELY OVER WRN TX. STRONG
DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WILL RESIDE
NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SELY WINDS VEERING TO WLY 30-35
KT AT 500 MB WILL RESULT IN 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM NRN PART OF
WRN TX NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. HIGHER BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
THE INITIAL STORM MODE...BUT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS AND PERSIST INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.

...SWRN TX...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SWRN TX WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR...BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
LAA ITR 45 ENE AKO 35 NE SNY 35 ENE AIA 60 ENE CDR 30 SSE PHP 20 SSW
PIR 30 NW 9V9 15 E 9V9 30 NNE ONL 35 N GRI 40 WNW CNK 40 W HUT 45
SSW AVK 20 SW LTS 60 NW ABI 25 NE BGS 25 NNE MAF 25 E HOB 50 N HOB
20 ENE CVS 25 SSW DHT 20 WSW EHA 35 E LAA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S DMN 30 SW ALM 25
W SRR 15 NE ONM 55 SSW GNT 25 WSW GNT 45 N GNT 45 SW CEZ 25 ESE PGA
55 ESE SGU 20 SE SGU 25 NNE P38 25 WSW TPH 35 N NID 35 WSW NID 40
NNW BFL 10 NNW FAT 45 SSW TVL 50 W RNO 20 WNW RNO 40 S NFL 30 NNE
U31 55 N ELY 55 W U24 10 WSW U24 45 ENE U24 15 NNW VEL 35 SE RWL 15
SE TOR 30 NNE TOR 55 NNE DGW 40 S GCC 45 SSE WRL 25 SW JAC 45 W MQM
45 SSE LWS 55 NNE BLI ...CONT... 80 NNW ISN 40 ENE N60 35 S GFK 30
NNE AXN 50 SSE RST 25 ESE CID 40 ESE IRK 45 NNE JLN 15 ENE ADM 20
WSW MWL 30 NNW JCT 20 SSW DRT ...CONT... 60 S 7R4 25 ENE 7R4 35 E
BTR 25 W PIB 15 SSE MEI 35 E CHA 25 W SHD 25 SSW MSV 30 WNW AUG 35
ENE CAR.
I'm just sitting waiting for someone to join me.....


chewin' on me grits


Back in a few hours.
Russian Market‏@russian_market22 min
All-time high flooding in Germany.
An exceptionally cold weather in the South African capital of Cape Town, which is actually located in a subtropical zone. The city is covered for the first time in many years with snow.


Link
Cape Town Storm -June 2 2013 Hail Snow Link
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm just sitting waiting for someone to join me.....


chewin' on me grits


grits is good.. mmm mmm :)

Evening Mr. Aussie!
seems as if the rains from 91 have started. up here in e cen fl a half inch so far alot more in the interiors. heard sw coast by ft myers got a wet start with 91 too
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Here is this mornings discussion of 91L by Crown Weather.

Crown Weather analysis
Quoting islander101010:
seems as if the rains from 91 have started. up here in e cen fl a half inch so far alot more in the interiors. heard sw coast by ft myers got a wet start with 91 too


I'm hating this.. we currently have discharges from Okeechobee Lake coming into our St. Lucie estuary.. and this new rain will add to that... we still haven't recovered from Isaac.. 55 square miles of dead seagrasses in the northern lagoon, and now discharges wrecking the ecosystems in the southern end...
Nice interview with mike Bettes this morning on TWC. Great tribute to the chasers that lost their lives. MIke Bettes seems very humble right now.
invest 91L will be only a rain storm .
lack of sea grass up here in the mosquito lagoon manatees are suspects too
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Ugh. So disappointing. Did not really capture it.

Great and its sideways.
not bad, connsidering it's from a cell phone.
Good morning all. I'm hoping we don't get too much more rain from this soaker... but expecting at least some today. Ya'll stay safe out there... I gotta run.
12z CMC




00z Euro






06z GFS










Good morning from Florida everybody,
here come the blobs
JeffMasters, thank you for appearing on TWC to explain what he did, as well as posting this about it too.
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning from Florida everybody,
here come the blobs


Wheres the blobologist (Grothar)? i havent seen him in a while...


1. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

91L finally on floater page!




Good morning/afternoon/evening as the case may be.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
634 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-032300-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
634 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH
SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING. ALL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THIS AREA FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MULTIPLE
HAZARDS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. FLOODING RAINS WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD...BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IF THE LOW DOES INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL
SYSTEM...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EVEN WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...CONDITIONS ON THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AS WINDS INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS CLIMB TO 7 FEET OR MORE. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON



Good morning abroad! Short drive by to tell you that the flooding situation in southeastern Germany and adjacent countries is unfortunately pretty much worsening:

Spiegel English (with photo gallery):
Relentless Rain: Army Called in to Fight Worsening Floods

The Local:
Two die as rain floods German regions
At least two people have died and thousands have been evacuated from their homes as widespread flooding ravages parts of Germany. Over 1,700 soldiers are helping those in particularly badly hit south and south-eastern areas.

The european picture (euronews with video):
Flooding in Czech Republic, Germany, Austria
03/06 04:26 CET


And it's still raining in those regions affected by floods. Source.

Edit: BBC footage with video and map


Passau at the Danube River. From a german live blog about the situation. All time record is broken at this place.
What percentage at 0800 hrs you think guys?
Quoting Jwd41190:
What percentage at 0800 hrs you think guys?
30 to 40%.
Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting barbamz:
Good morning abroad! Short drive by to tell you that the flooding situation in southeastern Germany and adjacent countries is unfortunately pretty much worsening:

Spiegel English (with photo gallery):
Relentless Rain: Army Called in to Fight Worsening Floods

The Local:
Two die as rain floods German regions
At least two people have died and thousands have been evacuated from their homes as widespread flooding ravages parts of Germany. Over 1,700 soldiers are helping those in particularly badly hit south and south-eastern areas.

The european picture (euronews with video):
Flooding in Czech Republic, Germany, Austria
03/06 04:26 CET


And it's still raining in those regions affected by floods. Source.
All-time high flooding in Germany and Central Europe!!! Martial law imposed in 3 German States!!! 10 people dead, 9 missing!!! HEAVY RAIN TO 72H!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
when is the aircraft recon going out.
Did ainslinnapps put out that yummy breakfast she does every morning? I am starving this morning. After spending a day on the lake yesterday fishing and time in the woods hunting, I can use a big meal. :-)

SouthernIllinois
Andre ~ I keep thinking you are Neapolitan when you post. Your avatars are so similar!! :D
Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm hating this.. we currently have discharges from Okeechobee Lake coming into our St. Lucie estuary.. and this new rain will add to that... we still haven't recovered from Isaac.. 55 square miles of dead seagrasses in the northern lagoon, and now discharges wrecking the ecosystems in the southern end...
It's very sad indianrivguy ... my understanding is that the intercoastal waterways were once a great economic resource, a major source of clams and fish and potentially a great tourist attraction to compliment the nearby beaches. But foolish decisions to alter the natural course of water flow, draining the inland interior for housing development and agriculture have ruined our once great resource on the coast, with further opportunities such as fish farming and tourist attraction out of reach now and wasted. I think the canals need to be filled in and water diverted back south into the Everglades and north into the St. John's for there to be any hope of recovery. I'm not holding my breath ... still I wonder if the man-made drainage infrastructure will just silt over eventually from neglect as "austerity" kicks in and funding for infrastructure continues to decline. I think that nature will remediate our folly in her own time ... better to work with nature than continue to defy her.
Look at all that rain!

Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm hating this.. we currently have discharges from Okeechobee Lake coming into our St. Lucie estuary.. and this new rain will add to that... we still haven't recovered from Isaac.. 55 square miles of dead seagrasses in the northern lagoon, and now discharges wrecking the ecosystems in the southern end...


Same thing is happening here on the Caloosahatchee. It's killing seagrasses here too. Also contributing to algae blooms.
766. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Look at all that rain!



morning looks like all that rain wants to go more east than north imo
While waiting for the continuation of the deluge here in Florida, with another 4"-8" expected this week, I was reading about the flooding that is ongoing in Central Europe from Germany through Austria and the Czech Republic. From Der Spiegel,
...For much of Europe, the weather hasn't been good this year. April showers were followed by more showers in May, when 178 percent more rain fell than the year before, according to estimates of Germany's National Meteorological Service (DWD).

The DWD says that, from Germany's northern coastlines to the Alps, the earth is wetter than it has been in 50 years. This broad swath of muddy soil is causing major problems for the agricultural industry, the DWD reports, making it impossible to drive on 40 percent of fields, use machinery or spray against pests, diseases, molds or weeds. ...


Articles:
Relentless Rain: Army Called in to Fight Worsening Floods (June 03)
Rain, Rain, Go Away: Germany Drowns in Endless Downpour (May 31)
Picture Gallery of Flooding in Bavaria and Saxony.
(Edit: I missed seeing Luisport's post on the same topic just a few posts above ... with added video)
Good Morning. Our Caribbean system not looking too good this am development wise; running out of time before it hits Florida as a copious tropical rainmaker with localized flooding to follow. No drought issues in Florida so far this year.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.

FROM NWS WILMINGTON NC
Interesting discussion out of Wilmington, NC NWS. System not expected to move out of the Gulf until Friday. That gives it a couple of days for it to develop, if shear allows.
Also note that two of our Lower Keys buoys are not working so no direct pressure readings as the system approaches the lower keys. Pressures are currently rising at the nearest working one due North of the system and due west of Naples into the Eastern Gulf with gusts of only 11 knots. This is the best one to monitor over the next 24 hours for any significant changes:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Mon, 3 Jun 2013 10:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSE (160) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (175)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.7 F

Morning
Hello from Longboat Key, Florida!

I had the pleasure of relocating here recently and it looks like the tropical weather is here to welcome me. Some of our roads are already flooding out and it's only the start of what looks to be a very wet week.

Quoting WxLogic:
Morning
Morning.:)
Upper Level Winds currently in the 30-40 knot range not conducive for development.

The west remains hot ..
Quoting guygee:
While waiting for the continuation of the deluge here in Florida, with another 4"-8" expected this week, I was reading about the flooding that is ongoing in Central Europe from Germany through Austria and the Czech Republic. From Der Spiegel,


Articles:
Relentless Rain: Army Called in to Fight Worsening Floods (June 03)
Rain, Rain, Go Away: Germany Drowns in Endless Downpour (May 31)
Picture Gallery of Flooding in Bavaria and Saxony.
(Edit: I missed seeing Luisport's post on the same topic just a few posts above ... with added video)
river donau psses the record of 12,20 meters rising....

highest flood since the year 1501.
mandatory evacuations in many towns and cities reported to begin today. Link
One thing to note, most models dont have this develop into a system (with the exception of the CMC, which wants to put a high end cat 1 in somebody's backyard) until it reaches south carolina by sunday
morning guys
hmm got to tell yeah 91L look more crap than last night a matter of fact the only thing that is looking good is down in the gulf of honduras
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys
hmm got to tell yeah 91L look more crap than last night a matter of fact the only thing that is looking good is down in the gulf of honduras

I have to agree. Anyways, from our current model runs, CMC still wants to make this into a high end cat or a low end cat 2 before the week is out. GFS wants to make it into a weak TD, and ECMWF does not seem to show anything at all
91L rip
going to mill around the e. gulf for a few days wait to wednesday
Quoting Luisport:
river donau psses the record of 12,20 meters rising....

highest flood since the year 1501.
mandatory evacuations in many towns and cities reported to begin today. Link
Hochwasser Passau 2013 drei Tage im Zeitraffer video Link
12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 217N, 892W, 20, 1009, DB
Shear and Dry Air do not a happy tropical-gyre make!


Don't think today will see much development; It will have to sit-and-spin for a couple days IF anything is to develop, IMO...
790. SLU
8n 33w

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 217N, 892W, 20, 1009, DB



looks like 91L has weak in i think 91L could be drop by the end of the day
Quoting flcanes:

I have to agree. Anyways, from our current model runs, CMC still wants to make this into a high end cat or a low end cat 2 before the week is out. GFS wants to make it into a weak TD, and ECMWF does not seem to show anything at all

as I expected models are down the drains because there is not a good starting point to work from and some see conditions to be good in the gulf of mex and some see it bad

my take on this is the models are forecasting this storm too early and moving it too quickly and forming in different areas

what I see happening is it starts with the system in the gulf of honduras move NNE-NE and develops while doing so makes its first landfall in Cuba then into Florida then the SE US Coastline the system will develop better in the lower shear in the GOH and the lower shear will eventually move with the system as it makes it way across Fl I think Fl could have a moderate-Strong TS and strong TS max (CMC is over doing intensity by a lot) all of this at a later time frame
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013060312, , BEST, 0, 217N, 892W, 20, 1009, DB
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like 91L has weak in i think 91L could be drop by the end of the day

I am very sorry I have to do this "Another one bites the dust!!" and yes I know there is no dust but still just saying

I did say NHC called 91L too early and that this is not the system they are looking for
Quoting SLU:
8n 33w

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

that tropical wave lookin good for a early June trop wave

Aerial view from Passau from today.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie, if you're still on. A pleasant 69 degrees and sunny here in my part of Louisiana. Just got back from Navarre, FL., visiting my son after my dog show in Kentucky. With all the rain they had here last week my garden isn't a garden anymore, looks more like a runaway hayfield! I can see a sore back in my near future.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: bacon and eggs, French toast with maple syrup, blueberry muffins, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
Quoting barbamz:

Areal view from Passau from today.


That's in lower or southern Bavaria, isn't it? Though there isn't a 'state' of Bavaria anymore...
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie, if you're still on. A pleasant 69 degrees and sunny here in my part of Louisiana. Just got back from Navarre, FL., visiting my son after my dog show in Kentucky. With all the rain they had here last week my garden isn't a garden anymore, looks more like a runaway hayfield! I can see a sore back in my near future.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: bacon and eggs, French toast with maple syrup, blueberry muffins, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!

Ahhh! I knew you would show up! Thank you. About to dig in!
The MDR has rebounded and now is a good deal above average.

Quoting Luisport:
Hochwasser Passau 2013 drei Tage im Zeitraffer video Link


The very short version (previous - now)

Edit: Gauge readings in Bavaria
801. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes

Quoting islander101010:
lack of sea grass up here in the mosquito lagoon manatees are suspects too


nonsense, you have receive erroneous information.. the algae blooms of the last two summers wiped out the grasses....over 100 manatees have died in 8 months for LACK of seagrass.. they were forced to eat algae, and it killed them.. more than 30 dolphins, over 300 brown pelicans and hundreds of other birds, all dead. A nutrient driven collapse in all three northern lagoons is underway.
Quoting barbamz:


The very short version (previous - now)
Thank's! It's really impressive!
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Thanks for the Clarification. ;)


Remember to write a blog and post it, as I think the system still resets your comment count when you post your first blog.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Same thing is happening here on the Caloosahatchee. It's killing seagrasses here too. Also contributing to algae blooms.


I spoke up for your C43 storm treatment area just the other day.. we need C44 finished as you need yours finished too.
If I'm not mistaken, it appears we have a baroclinic low forming about 225 miles due north of cancun. Water vapor is the most apparent showing dry air starting to wrap around from the NW side of the circulation. This possible center is located at the easternmost part of a lobe of 850 mb Vorticity located north of the yucatan.
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Remember to write a blog and post it, as I think the system still resets your comment count when you post your first blog.

Exactly right. That's exactly what happens.
My condolences go to all of the family and friends of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras, and Carl Young. I hope that their deaths will lead towards safer tornado chasing, and help spur efforts to use emerging drone technology to take measurements in dangerous storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

Jeff Masters


The Portlight Family also sends its condolences to the Samaras & Young Families for their Loss of Loved ones.

Quoting indianrivguy:


nonsense, you have receive erroneous information.. the algae blooms of the last two summers wiped out the grasses....over 100 manatees have died in 8 months for LACK of seagrass.. they were forced to eat algae, and it killed them.. more than 30 dolphins, over 300 brown pelicans and hundreds of other birds, all dead. A nutrient driven collapse in all three northern lagoons is underway.
All driven by a desire to "drain the Swamp" and make the Lake O region safe for sugar cane and houses. I'm oversimplifying, but the whole thing is maddening.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If I'm not mistaken, it appears we have a baroclinic low forming about 225 miles due north of cancun. Water vapor is the most apparent showing dry air starting to wrap around from the NW side of the circulation. This possible center is located at the easternmost part of a lobe of 850 mb Vorticity located north of the yucatan.

nah
Some low clouds at the moment in Southern Illinois. Then the skies should clear around mid morning paving for the way for brilliant sunshine and highs in the low 70's. Just lovely!!
Some more intensity from SHIP.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC MON JUN 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130603 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130603 1200 130604 0000 130604 1200 130605 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 89.2W 22.4N 90.0W 22.8N 91.1W 23.1N 92.0W
BAMD 21.7N 89.2W 22.3N 89.3W 22.8N 89.4W 23.5N 89.7W
BAMM 21.7N 89.2W 22.2N 89.8W 22.4N 90.6W 22.7N 91.5W
LBAR 21.7N 89.2W 22.6N 89.3W 23.8N 89.6W 25.2N 89.7W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130605 1200 130606 1200 130607 1200 130608 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 93.1W 22.1N 94.8W 21.5N 96.2W 21.6N 98.2W
BAMD 23.9N 90.0W 24.6N 90.4W 26.8N 88.5W 32.8N 81.3W
BAMM 22.6N 92.3W 21.8N 94.0W 21.3N 95.4W 21.5N 96.7W
LBAR 26.6N 89.3W 29.5N 86.8W 34.1N 80.9W 41.2N 70.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 89.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 88.8W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 88.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nah
yeah... Lol it's deepening pretty quickly as that trough approaches. This is an example of a small area of low pressure being ejected from the larger broad low that is hanging out further sw
814. beell
Seems the surface trough and ex-Barbara-lower-tropospheric support is pretty much locked in place between the ridges in the models. From the tip of the Yucatan to SW Florida. Western gulf ridging appears to eventually suppress or nullify any monsoonal circulation in the Atlantic basin by mid-week. What ever it is would seem to continue on a track towards the NE along the surface trough.

A weak upper trough over the gulf should provide good divergence/support for showers and thunderstorms from the western tip of Cuba to the southern half of Florida.

And it's probably worth a mention that upper shortwave ridging ahead of this feature along with confluent flow/subsidence with the southern stream westerlies over the northern gulf may temper the rain totals for northern Floridians.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Ahhh! I knew you would show up! Thank you. About to dig in!


Hi! Yes, I spent nine days in Kentucky for a National Specialty first for Papillons, and then for Russian Toys. I only showed in the Russian Toys, winning Sweepstakes and Best of Opposite Sex for Long haired variety. I was Match Chair for the Phalene variety of the Papillon for that Specialty. Then I headed down to Florida to my oldest son's house for a week. He's stationed at Hurlburt Air Field in Fort Walton Beach. I love how much cooler it is with the Gulf breeze. Now if I can only figure out how to get that breeze here in west central Louisiana!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am very sorry I have to do this "Another one bites the dust!!" and yes I know there is no dust but still just saying

I did say NHC called 91L too early and that this is not the system they are looking for

Wait for a few more frames of visible sat. and you will see the mid level vort to the north of the yucatan peninsula is well in tact. There will be several phases of this storm between now and thursday. Yes there will be energy from the GOH that come in to the equation but to say the system was called to early is pointless. It's there and evolving now.
The rain chance here according to NWS and WU for yesterday was higher than it's been for months - 80%, so, definately gonna rain, right?

Wrong. Not a drop.



Still, one wet May, and June sure did start off with a bang. And promises (promises, promises) for more to come...
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADDS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST LATE WEEK. THU
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED...THOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IS PUSHED INLAND AND
DISSIPATES THU BUT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP WITH HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO.

FRI AND BEYOND THE PREVIOUS INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS EVAPORATED. NOW SEEING SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES POPPING UP WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. LACK OF STEERING AND ENHANCING
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS YET TO TAKE
SHAPE...IS GIVING THE GUIDANCE FITS AND KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW. IF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IT IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AROUND THE GULF UNTIL
MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRI CAPTURES
IT. ONCE THE TROUGH PICKS IT UP THE GUIDANCE AGREES THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BUT PATHS VARY FROM WEST OF THE ILM FORECAST
AREA TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI INTO SAT. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSITIONING
FROM TROPICAL TO BAROCLINIC AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.

NWS WILMINGTON NC don't think much of it
Quoting Abacosurf:

Wait for a few more frames of visible sat. and you will see the mid level vort to the north of the yucatan peninsula is well in tact. There will be several phases of this storm between now and thursday. Yes there will be energy from the GOH that come in to the equation but to say the system was called to early is pointless. It's there and evolving now.

no not pointless it is early
.3" rain for me in MD yesterday.

Now it looks like the corn grew a foot over one night... xD
TUE-THU...CLOUDY/WET PERIOD TO CONTINUE AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN U.S. TO EASTERN GULF/YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A
SHEAR AXIS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AXIS WILL STREAM TROPICAL
AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AVERAGING NEAR 2.25 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN GENERAL
PATTERN...WITH SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MEANDERING OVER THE SE
GULF...WITH EVENTUAL EJECTION OF A SURFACE FEATURE BY LATE
THU...TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA OR THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT EXTENSIVE MUTLI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND TUE-WED WITH NUMEROUS DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT. GREATEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS REGION THU. HAVE INDICATED
50-70 POPS ALL THREE DAYS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...MOST
WIDESPREAD ON THU. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. WARM MINS DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW/HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFMLB/ WAS ISSUED SUNDAY EVENING TO
ADDRESS THE MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH
4-8 INCHES IN MANY AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAY NEED TO RAISE A FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS WEEK
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED TUNED.

FRI-SUN...DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EXTEND TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SHOULD HELP EJECT WEAK SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SEABOARD FRI/SAT. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD SHUNT THE BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH SOME RELATIVE DRYING REACHING THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW 2 INCHES...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 1.75 INCHES.
TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE-DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IN THE OFFING...HOWEVER STILL 30-40 PERCENT
DAILY COVERAGE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO.

OF NOTE...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO OUR SOUTH
FROM THE YUCATAN TO THE KEYS/SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND.
IF SURFACE LOW DOES NOT EVOLVE AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...VERY WET
PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO FRI-SAT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA AS WELL.

FROM NWS MLB...
822. SLU
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

that tropical wave lookin good for a early June trop wave


Very bad sign for the Cape Verde season if we can see such a well defined feature that far east in early June.
There is a significant adrenaline rush that comes with storm chasing, even for the most benign chaser. The data needs to be collected, but the use of drones exclusively will not come to pass. Even if it does, there is still goingto always be the "tourist" element to chasing.
Really hoping this system in the gulf doesnt develop, my vacation at the beach begins June 8th.

Send it west into Mexico.
Rainfall total for me this past week: .4"...
826. 7544
looks like 91L is getting lots more convection to it so fl will indeed see a lot of rain from it weather it devolpes or not saty tune !
anyone have links for all the models now that Allan Hoffman is charging for his posting of the models. I know they are public domain.

Thanks
bettes interview on twc now
Mourning.

Blessings and Peace to family and friends of the victims. I echo hopes that it will lead to improved safety by chasers.

Congrats to all the graduates out there. Stay safe on your new journeys.

Indian Riv, thanks for all you do to keep our estuaries healthy, safe, and put out good info.
830. MahFL
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys
hmm....


Watch the language please.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
anyone have links for all the models now that Allan Hoffman is charging for his posting of the models. I know they are public domain.

Thanks


I use this now

Tropical Tidbits Model page
832. JRRP

wave with nice rotation
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am very sorry I have to do this "Another one bites the dust!!" and yes I know there is no dust but still just saying

I did say NHC called 91L too early and that this is not the system they are looking for


NHC has called nothing, they have just designated an area of interest (INVEST). Given the MJO pulse and the model support, coupled with the the start of the tropical season, this was a prudent move. You speak as if NHC gave it depression status or higher?
Glad to see Germany has the word out for satellite help for the flooding.
Fresh ASCAT of the wave ~33W..

Quoting Torito:
Rainfall total for me this past week: .4"...


Looks like the EPAC is trying to cook something up again. That's great, the moisture from those systems plume straight up into TX.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I use this now

Tropical Tidbits Model page


Thanks WXGeek!!! Is this our own Levi's site?
Quoting Luisport:
Thank's! It's really impressive!
Saxony Interior Minister Ulbig appeals to the common sense of citizens - the calls for evacuation should necessarily be followed.

According to current forecasts by the State Flood Center is expected to increase at the same level Schoena to more than seven meters - and on Wednesday even up to 11.05 meters. Normal level there are 2.14 meters.

spiegel.de
840. SLU
CSU's new forecast is due today but I can't seem to access their website. Anyone else having trouble?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
here we ago again....the early morning models showed 91l gowing into central florida by tampa... now only 1 model shows it going up into the pan handle of florida.... another false alarm here in daytona .... things never change nor do they know whats gonna happen
Quoting SLU:
CSU's new forecast is due today but I can't seem to access their website. Anyone else having trouble?

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/


No access fron here. Hopefully it comes back soon to see their June forecast.
844. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


No access fron here. Hopefully it comes back soon to see their June forecast.


Are you expecting any changes?

With a next to 0 percent chance of an el nino this year I rather suspect they will maintain their numbers from April.
Quoting SLU:


Are you expecting any changes?

With a next to 0 percent chance of an el nino this year I rather suspect they will maintain their numbers from April.


What were their numbers if you know offhand?>
Quoting MahFL:


Watch the language please.

sorry

Quoting TideWaterWeather:


NHC has called nothing, they have just designated an area of interest (INVEST). Given the MJO pulse and the model support, coupled with the the start of the tropical season, this was a prudent move. You speak as if NHC gave it depression status or higher?

nah you will see how I speak when NHC give TD status

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




by the looks of it might as well let that thing spin around and around in circles

New aerial footage from the confluence of the rivers Inn and Danube.
Quoting SLU:


Are you expecting any changes?

With a next to 0 percent chance of an el nino this year I rather suspect they will maintain their numbers from April.


IMO,they will maintain with the April numbers.
YESTERDAY THE 7 DAY FORCAST FOR RAIN HERE IN CENTRAL WAS FOR MONDAY 60% TUESDAY 70% WEDNESDAY 8O% THURSDAY 70% FRIDAY 70% AND ILL BET WE DONT GET ANYTHING THEY ALREADY CHANGE 91L TRACK AWAY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AND GOING TOWARDS THE BIG BEND WILL THEY EVER GET ANYTHING RIGHT EACH YEAR
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
here we ago again....the early morning models showed 91l gowing into central florida by tampa... now only 1 model shows it going up into the pan handle of florida.... another false alarm here in daytona .... things never change nor do they know whats gonna happen

The models are just a tool, not a mystical crystal ball that views the future. Just like any tool, they must be used properly, knowing their strengths and weaknesses and some "understanding the tool" is needed to work it right.

A hammer will work poorly on a deck screw.

A digital multimeter is invaluable to an electrician because of the information it CAN provide; But you have to know how to use the tool...
Colorado State University Team Continues to Predict Above-Average 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Excerpt:


FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team continues to predict an above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season due primarily to unusually warm water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and an expected lack of an El Niño event. The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those are expected to become major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
I see our invest is still looking rather sloppy.

One thing I did notice is a blob of heavy convection moving northwards along the western Caribbean, which is probably merging with the broad low. This may kick start more development, if it holds together.

Coordinates and heading are a bit perplexing considering what model consensus had been yesterday evening, but I guess that's to be expected, changes, etc, in a highly disorganized system.

Doesn't look like there's any steering features in a hurry to dive south over the next few days, so maybe our invest has a few days to just do it's own thing over the Gulf.

SST of 28C is enough for strong development, but it's not very deep warm water yet, so if it's a slow mover the whole time it'll choke on it's own up-welling.
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
YESTERDAY THE 7 DAY FORCAST FOR RAIN HERE IN CENTRAL WAS FOR MONDAY 60% TUESDAY 70% WEDNESDAY 8O% THURSDAY 70% FRIDAY 70% AND ILL BET WE DONT GET ANYTHING THEY ALREADY CHANGE 91L TRACK AWAY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AND GOING TOWARDS THE BIG BEND WILL THEY EVER GET ANYTHING RIGHT EACH YEAR

Please stop yelling! My eardrums!! :D
Quoting FLwolverine:
All driven by a desire to "drain the Swamp" and make the Lake O region safe for sugar cane and houses. I'm oversimplifying, but the whole thing is maddening.


Blame Walt Disney. He started it, and his ilk are continuing it. What does it say about a state when their primary income is tourism to "nonsense land"?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA---GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 04/1730Z
D. 24.0N 88.5W
E. 04/1845Z TO 04/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 24.5N 88.5W AT 05/1800Z.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


IMO,they will maintain with the April numbers.


If Gro doesn't get back here soon we won't have *anything* to watch. I wonder if we can bait him with some herring balls...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Colorado State University Team Continues to Predict Above-Average 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Excerpt:


FORT COLLINS - The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team continues to predict an above-average 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season due primarily to unusually warm water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and an expected lack of an El Niño event. The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season, between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those are expected to become major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.


A possible hyperactive Atlantic season ahead - a season with an ACE index over 175% is considered "hyperactive." An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Of course, as far as people are concerned, it doesn't matter how many storms form or what the ACE is, it's whether or not they're affected by one.
Quoting redwagon:


If Gro doesn't get back here soon we won't have *anything* to watch. I wonder if we can bait him with some herring balls...


mmmmmmmm...herring balls...
Quoting mikatnight:


A possible hyperactive Atlantic season ahead - a season with an ACE index over 175% is considered "hyperactive." An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Of course, as far as people are concerned, it doesn't matter how many storms form or what the ACE is, it's whether or not they're affected by one.



That is why I prepare the same every year. I assume a hurricane will affect me.
Quoting SLU:


Very bad sign for the Cape Verde season if we can see such a well defined feature that far east in early June.
If the Bermuda High keeps up it current configurations, it may be a disastrous year....and i never doomcast.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

.UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING THE SHORT
TERM, ALTHOUGH CONTEMPLATED DROPPING THE POP`S FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY HAMPER DAY TIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE RAPID REFRESH
GUIDANCE FOR THE MORNING HOURS, BUT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE COVERAGE COULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORID PENINSULA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT
AROUND 2.2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY IS LIKELY
GOING TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.
"I wonder if we can bait him with some herring balls..."

Too funny. But if the blobs don't bring him out, I dunno... You'd probably only net Rose Nyland.

863. SLU
Quoting K8eCane:


From April they had 18-9-4 (ACE ~165)
Quoting JRRP:

wave with nice rotation
I just saw a big spin......in my washer.



Looks really sloppy.. Tried to find a Center and questionably found at least 4 areas of rotation, between the monsoon gyre, the MLC and multiple swirls floating around... The last set of models might as well be tossed and should be until we get a consolidated center...

It's going to have a tough time getting together in the coming days with shear and it will probably start cooling water around there pretty soon...
866. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
If the Bermuda High keeps up it current configurations, it may be a disastrous year....and i never doomcast.


Yep .. the ridging has been very strong since early April.
Mornin' y'all.......Euro sez...

...guess I better enjoy these frames while I can still get 'em.
looking at the MSLP on sat loop our low in off the coast of Belize in the GOH
Quoting SLU:


Yep .. the ridging has been very strong since early April.


But thankfully it is too early to tell where the ridging will be in August when the Cape Verde season starts to crank up.
Quoting hydrus:
If the Bermuda High keeps up it current configurations, it may be a disastrous year....and i never doomcast.


Yup, ridging over southern Canada and troughs over central us...

Setting up for a 2004 like year with probably a few more storms....

I can hear janiel cheering!
RGB sat does seem to show a low level spin in that area as well
Quoting SLU:


Yep .. the ridging has been very strong since early April.
Never doomcast? What are you doing now? Everyone hurry suicide.
Belize radar is not updating so can't get a really clear picture
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
RGB sat does seem to show a low level spin in that area as well
Hurry a cat 5 is forming.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



That is why I prepare the same every year. I assume a hurricane will affect me.


That's because you're smart like Captain Kirk -
Dilythium Crystals - check.
Shuttle Craft - check.
Shields - check.

And not like Captain Dork, who has his phaser set to stun, pointed at himself.
876. SLU
CSU's new forecast still calls for 18-9-4
LSU ESL shows a naughty mass of cold, dry air west of the low. It'll have a hard time overcoming that mess.



Same deal on low clouds product. The shear and dry air cutting across that diagonal isn't letting any storms form at all.

Quoting prcane4you:
Hurry a cat 5 is forming.

Don't excite him.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at the MSLP on sat loop our low in off the coast of Belize in the GOH


The longer you look at the satellite, the more swirls you see...

880. SLU
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


But thankfully it is too early to tell where the ridging will be in August when the Cape Verde season starts to crank up.


REPOST

While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressures are lower in April to May.

This year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.
Quoting prcane4you:
Hurry a cat 5 is forming.

DOOM!!!!!CASTER
Quoting weatherh98:


Yup, ridging over southern Canada and troughs over central us...

Setting up for a 2004 like year with probably a few more storms....

I can hear janiel cheering!


Quoting SLU:
CSU's new forecast still calls for 18-9-4
My forecast is many fishes again.
#880 -

Fascinating post.
Breaking on BBC and SKY news.

Prague City centre to be evacuated

Link
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Don't excite him.

don't worry he ain't hes making me fell pitty on him

Quoting weatherh98:


The longer you look at the satellite, the more swirls you see...


I'm hardly looking at it

Quoting SLU:


REPOST

While this may be a totally unsound meteorological comparison, I did some research using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and found that in over 90% of the hurricane seasons since 1950, the storm tracks tend to resemble the surface pressure patterns established in the April to May timeframe. In areas where high pressure dominates in April to May, the storms generally seem to avoid these areas during the hurricane season but they tend to congregate where the pressures are lower in April to May.

This year in April to May, we have seen extremely high pressures persist near the North-eastern US and Eastern Canada both at the surface and the 500mb levels with lower pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the North-eastern Atlantic near the Azores.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Based on that theory, we may see our storm tracks this year resemble that of the 1996, 1998 and 2004 hurricane seasons (1996 and 2004 both being CSU's analog years). In those seasons, There were 2 primary sets of storms tracks:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

1. A noticeable congregation of powerful Cape Verde hurricanes that moved westwards under the ridge and into the Caribbean and the United States.

2. Rapidly recurving storms in the far Eastern Atlantic near the Azores that did not affect land.

I believe we may see a similar pattern in 2013.

Again, while this may be an unsound meteorological assertion, the correlation seemed to work in about 90% of all hurricane seasons since 1950 and therefore it deserves some sort of recognition.


sound like bad year for us all 3 of those year Cayman got affected
Quoting JRRP:
Link


Ouch! "Access Denied"!
890. SLU
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

don't worry he ain't hes making me fell pitty on him


I'm hardly looking at it



sound like bad year for us all 3 of those year Cayman got affected


They were all bad years for the Caribbean and the US.
Very early to tell specifics as "Each" storm will have it's own unique set of circumstances. However, longer term 500mb patterns are leading me to believe that there will be a lot more storms threatening the US and Caribbean this year. But, it is weather and all of that can flip on a dime at any point in time, just to tick you off, lol.
Quoting mikatnight:


Ouch! "Access Denied"!

lol let me guess its from the crawler police
Just a shout out to all my friends on here. I don't post here often, but I certainly still have a lot of friends on here and my site.
I think Wunderground needs to do something about its 'local weather' facility. All the time I lived in Florida it kept identifying my local weather as coming from Malvern, PA. I had assumed that was due to the vagaries of the intranet at the international company I work for, but I just relocated to North Carolina and it now thinks I live in Lak Zurich, IL.

Anyone else have a similar issue?
Quoting weatherh98:


The longer you look at the satellite, the more swirls you see...

Yep...maybe swirls are from jet planes engines crossing everywhwre.
897. JRRP
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Very early to tell specifics as "Each" storm will have it's own unique set of circumstances. However, longer term 500mb patterns are leading me to believe that there will be a lot more storms threatening the US and Caribbean this year. But, it is weather and all of that can flip on a dime at any point in time, just to tick you off, lol.

Yeah... *cough* 2010 *cough*
Why does the shear displayed on this product (nearly none in west-central gulf, not agree with a visual observation of the satellite loops?



Steering analysis would suggest the low gets kicked into the central Gulf, dead center.
Quoting SLU:


They were all bad years for the Caribbean and the US.
All the Home Depots in P.R. are full of people buying all kind of stuff.
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
"I wonder if we can bait him with some herring balls..."

Too funny. But if the blobs don't bring him out, I dunno... You'd probably only net Rose Nyland.



I'm starting to worry if the inverse is true... Gro brings the *blobs* out.
Quoting SLU:


They were all bad years for the Caribbean and the US.

yep thou we here in cayman got it the worst back in 04
Bonnie, Charley, and Ivan


That ridge off the east coast, also can see the well defined "blob"
Quoting Torito:
Atlantic is boiling...ready for fishes.
Quoting prcane4you:
Atlantic is boiling...ready for fishes.




I don't think it's boiling:)
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT of the wave ~33W..


The GFS and Canadian have been showing a weak surface low developing with the wave over the next couple days while conditions stay marginally favorable. But it will likely not reach the islands due it getting slammed by a TUTT feature nearby. I believe it may warrant a yellow circle and an invest designation through midweek before its favorable conditions run out. Still a very structurally sound and well-organized tropical wave for June. It may have had the chane to develop if conditions were better. We may just see a Early Season long-tracker this year. Definitely not out of the question if the intensity of these tropical waves continue as the conditions become more conducive. Maybe a Cape Verde storm in July?
Quoting prcane4you:
Yep...maybe swirls are from jet planes engines crossing everywhwre.
wxmod would tend to agree with you there.
NOAA Statement on deaths of storm researchers Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young

We are terribly saddened by this news. Samaras was a respected tornado researcher and friend of NOAA who brought to the field a unique portfolio of expertise in engineering, science, writing and videography. His work was documented through an extensive list of formal publications and conference papers.

We extend our sympathies to the family of Tim and Paul, and to the family of Carl Young. We also extend our sympathies to all victims of the May 31st tornado and the other horrific tornadoes that have recently devastated central Oklahoma.

As far as we know, these are the first documented scientific storm intercept fatalities in a tornado.

Scientific storm intercept programs, though they occur with some known measure of risk, provide valuable research information that is difficult to acquire in other ways. Scientific storm chasing is performed as safely as possible, utilizing highly trained personnel and extensive technology including mobile Doppler radar.

We know storm chasing is also done by local government and media personnel who provide valuable warning information, and by amateur storm chasers who wish to see and photograph storms. We encourage all who chase to do so as safely and as responsibly as possible in order to avoid danger for themselves and all those threatened by tornadoes.
Repost since it was missed.

The shear is clearly wrong on this map.



you can manually time the shear from how cloud tops are blown off thunderstorms in the western Gulf, and it's more like 40 to 50mph, not the 0 to 10 this map claims.
Quoting prcane4you:
All the Home Depots in P.R. are full of people buying all kind of stuff.


It's good to be - as the Boy Scouts motto says - Prepared.

Then, there's the other way you can go, and get a pair of them spiffy Joo Janta 200 Super-Chromatic Peril Sensitive Sunglasses, which darken at the first sign of danger so as not to alarm the wearer.
Cuban radar mosaic.



Notice the heavy storms associated with the blob moving through the Yucatan Channel. This is probably the most promising for starting real development, in my mind.
MDR was in a nose dive but has since leveled off, the gulf was cooling but is now warming again. The carribean is cooling and is now below average.

Quoting RTSplayer:
Repost since it was missed.

The shear is clearly wrong on this map.



you can manually time the shear from how cloud tops are blown off thunderstorms in the western Gulf, and it's more like 40 to 50mph, not the 0 to 10 this map claims.

this ain't a shear map so stop using it as one
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

this ain't a shear map so stop using it as one

-,!, and ignore user. Troll.
I don't see any kind of tropical development from this. Just some very heavy tropical rains for South Florida.
Quoting redwagon:


I'm starting to worry if the inverse is true... Gro brings the *blobs* out.


That would explain a lot...
Quoting RTSplayer:
Cuban radar mosaic.



Notice the heavy storms associated with the blob moving through the Yucatan Channel. This is probably the most promising for starting real development, in my mind.

when it get in the GOM then poof it gone by the shear

Quoting weatherh98:
MDR was in a nose dive but has since leveled off, the gulf was cooling but is now warming again. The carribean is cooling and is now below average.


what does the other SSA maps say
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

this ain't a shear map so stop using it as one



Quoting RTSplayer:
Repost since it was missed.

The shear is clearly wrong on this map.



you can manually time the shear from how cloud tops are blown off thunderstorms in the western Gulf, and it's more like 40 to 50mph, not the 0 to 10 this map claims.


NOT A WIND SHEAR PRODUCT!

That is layer mean wind analysis, which shows the vector magnitude in the colored chart.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
wxmod would tend to agree with you there.

Holy cow! I forgot about those danged chemtrails...no wonder my lawn is dying. :-)
Quoting TylerStanfield:

-,!, and ignore user. Troll.

yep ok
Quoting weatherh98:





30 KTS?

Not too bad. We've seen storms go up in that before.


This one is wind shear and it shows 20ish+ kts...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

when it get in the GOM then poof it gone by the shear


what does the other SSA maps say


Full page if sst data Link
Quoting FunnelVortex:


30 KTS?

Not too bad. We've seen storms go up in that before.


Could be worse!
Quoting TylerStanfield:

-,!, and ignore user. Troll.


Erm... "June 2, 2013"
Quoting sar2401:

Holy cow! I forgot about those danged chemtrails...no wonder my lawn is dying. :-)

Yep. Remember, it's not just vapor trails. It's the government conspiring to alter the world's climate by coordinating some clandestine mission involving thousands of retired 747's to deliberately and maliciously release massive amounts of barium and aluminum aerosols high into the atmosphere that alter cloud patterns and create harmful chemtrails. ;-)
Quoting weatherh98:


Full page if sst data Link


thanks
Quoting weatherh98:
MDR was in a nose dive but has since leveled off, the gulf was cooling but is now warming again. The carribean is cooling and is now below average.


Yeah, looked at that earlier. I think It should rebound now considering the Atlantic is forecasted to turn into a negative NAO again. Also the Nio regions have began to teeter again, which could mean we could head back toward a average neutral instead of cool neutral.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Cuban radar mosaic.



Notice the heavy storms associated with the blob moving through the Yucatan Channel. This is probably the most promising for starting real development, in my mind.

Heavy storms? It looks like what I used to see all the time when I was sailing in that area.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yeah, looked at that earlier. I think I should rebound now considering the Atlantic is forecasted to turn into a negative NAO again. Also the Niño regions have began to teeter again, which could mean we could head back toward a average neutral instead of cool neutral.


Mainly just regions 3.4 and 4, 1+2 and 3 are well below averages and are holding steady.
Quoting weatherh98:


Could be worse!

Erm... "June 2, 2013"
Just in case you don't know (think you do), he's HurricaneDean07.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just in case you don't know (think you do), he's HurricaneDean07.

Who?

EDIT: Oh, cool. HurricaneDean07 is awesome. Glad I know he is Tyler. Good stuff. :-)
I received between 3.25" and 3.50" over the weekend up in Southern Illinois. I am as happy as a clam!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just in case you don't know (think you do), he's HurricaneDean07.



What the... How? Why?

Jeeze, sorry dean I thought it was a new guy trying to tell everyone about trolling... Didnt add up
Nice bit of shade up the eastern seaboard today...
Potential in the North Caribbean?

Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Yep. Remember, it's not just vapor trails. It's the government conspiring to alter the world's climate by coordinating some clandestine mission involving thousands of retired 747's to deliberately and maliciously release massive amounts of barium and aluminum aerosols high into the atmosphere that alter cloud patterns and create harmful chemtrails. ;-)

You sheeple, this plan was retired because it was found out. They now use poison unicorn farts for all their weather modification. HAARP sends up mind-control rays which catch the unicorns while they fly over Alaska and re-program them to fart on command. Don't you people know anything? I remember years ago and you would hardly see unicorns flying at all, and now they are all over so this is the only possible explanation.
:)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just a shout out to all my friends on here. I don't post here often, but I certainly still have a lot of friends on here and my site.
Nice to see you again!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Yep. Remember, it's not just vapor trails. It's the government conspiring to alter the world's climate by coordinating some clandestine mission involving thousands of retired 747's to deliberately and maliciously release massive amounts of barium and aluminum aerosols high into the atmosphere that alter cloud patterns and create harmful chemtrails. ;-)



Quoting EricSpittle:

You sheeple, this plan was retired because it was found out. They now use poison unicorn farts for all their weather modification. HAARP sends up mind-control rays which catch the unicorns while they fly over Alaska and re-program them to fart on command. Don't you people know anything? I remember years ago and you would hardly see unicorns flying at all, and now they are all over so this is the only possible explanation.
:)

Oh, goodness. I am behind the times. I must get the scientific version of the snot magazines (Nat Inquirer, STAR, etc.) at the grocery checkout lane from now on.
Quoting FunnelVortex:




ROFLMAO
Quoting TylerStanfield:

The GFS and Canadian have been showing a weak surface low developing with the wave over the next couple days while conditions stay marginally favorable. But it will likely not reach the islands due it getting slammed by a TUTT feature nearby. I believe it may warrant a yellow circle and an invest designation through midweek before its favorable conditions run out. Still a very structurally sound and well-organized tropical wave for June. It may have had the chane to develop if conditions were better. We may just see a Early Season long-tracker this year. Definitely not out of the question if the intensity of these tropical waves continue as the conditions become more conducive. Maybe a Cape Verde storm in July?

2005. Unusually robust Cape Verdes among other storms.

Hurricane Cindy 07/03-07/11 75 992 1 320 Category 1 Hurricane
Major Hurricane Dennis 07/04-07/18 150 930 42 2545 Category 3 Hurricane
Major Hurricane Emily 07/11-07/21 160 929 6 0 No US Landfall
Tropical Storm Franklin 07/21-07/31 70 997 0 0 No US Landfall
Tropical Storm Gert 07/23-07/25 45 1005 0 0 No US Landfall
Meanwhile, all is calm 1 AU away

Quoting weatherh98:


Mainly just regions 3.4 and 4, 1+2 and 3 are well below averages and are holding steady.

That's what I meant, they haven't fallen anymore, they're now holding steady. The only thing preventing the niño regions from being declared a weak La Niña phase is the niño 3.4, 3 and 4 regions being right at around average.
Just came online saw the new blog but wanted to post in this specific blog my sincere condolences for the storm chasers who lost their lives. RIP to these brave scientists and to all others who have lost their lives in weather events.
Has during the Danube in Passau level already reached a historic high, the residents of the Elbe is the most critical phase is yet to come: So the water levels along the river rose even more dramatically on Monday. In many places the highest alert level has been proclaimed as the capital of Saxony in Dresden, where the level had almost reached the seven-meter mark on Monday evening. But also in Saxony-Anhalt do you prepare before a heavy Elbflood
Once again our local Met's are wrong!! where are the 20" of rain for South Florida?,here in Miami not a drop of rain today ( I know is not going to be 20" in one day) but when I look at the Gulf of Mexico Rainbow loop it should be raining in most part of Florida.
We should the take the forecaster backwards,when they said sunny and dry it rains a lot when they said rainy 70% is dry!! LOL!!!!.Let see how the rest of the week shape up?, if a the low finally is going to develop or not?,interesting week ahead.
The rain coming up from 91L seems to be evaporating as it nears SW Florida?? My buddy in Estero says he has received like less than 1/10 inch today.
Going to defintely be a umbrella week here in West Central Florida!!!
It was essentially worst-case scenario for the chasers in el reno. The combination of the tornado being rain-wrapped, moving erratically, increasing its speed as it crossed 81, expanding by almost a mile within 5-10 minutes and making an abrupt turn caught a lot of them off-guard.