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A Night of Tornado Chaos in Oklahoma City: 9 Killed, 71 Injured

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:21 PM GMT on June 01, 2013

It was a terrifying evening of tornado chaos and extreme atmospheric violence in the Oklahoma City area on Friday. Three tornadoes touched down near the city, killing nine, injuring at least 71, and causing widespread destruction. Huge hail up to baseball-sized battered portions the the metro area, accompanied by torrential flooding rains, widespread damaging straight-line winds, and lightning that flashed nearly continuously. The strongest tornado, which touched down west of Oklahoma City in El Reno, has been preliminarily rated an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. The tornado warning for the storm was issued 19 minutes before it touched down. Two other EF-3 tornadoes touched down near St. Louis, Missouri, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged 20 preliminary tornado reports on Friday. Tinker Air Force Base on the east side of Oklahoma City reported sustained winds of 68 mph, gusting to 88 mph, at 8:09 pm CDT. The Oklahoma City airport had sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 71 mph at 7:26 pm. These winds were generated by the massive and powerful downdrafts from the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the El Reno tornado. Thankfully, Friday was likely the peak day for this week's severe weather outbreak, as SPC is calling for only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Saturday and Sunday.


Figure 1. TWC's Mike ‪Bettes‬ crew caught this image of the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado of May 31, 2013 before the tornado caught them and rolled their vehicle.



Figure 2 and 3. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) images of the May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado.


Figure 4. Preliminary tracks of the three tornadoes that touched done near Oklahoma City on May 31, 2013. Image credit: NWS Norman, OK.

Tornadoes and cars: a dangerous mix
A vehicle is about the worst place you can be in a tornado, as the tornado's winds can easily roll a car. (The only place less safe is probably a mobile home, as a tornado's winds can roll mobile homes almost as readily, and mobile homes don't come with seat belts and air bags.) At least five of the deaths in Friday's El Reno tornado occurred in vehicles attempting to flee. There was one local TV station that urged residents without underground shelters to get in their cars and "get south" in advance of the tornado that was approaching Oklahoma City, since chasers were reporting that the El Reno tornado may have been so strong that only an underground shelter would have provided adequate protection. This terrible piece of advice likely contributed to the incredible traffic jams that we saw on I-35, I-40, I-44, and other local roads Friday night. Thousands of cars were bumper-to-bumper on the roads as a dangerous tornado approached them. Had the El Reno tornado plowed directly down one of these car-choked interstates, the death toll could have easily exceeded 500. If you are located in a metro area and don't have an underground shelter, the best thing to do it to take shelter in an interior windowless room or hallway, with protective furniture over your body. Getting in a car and attempting to flee the tornado is the worst thing you can do in an urban area. You may not be able to see the tornado if it is dark or the tornado is wrapped in rain. You are likely to encounter hazardous winds, rain, and hail, run into unexpected traffic, or flooded or debris-blocked roads that will put you directly in the path of the tornado. Even without an underground shelter, most people will be able to survive a dangerous EF-4 tornado. Case in point: during the Mannford, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado of 1984, a packed church received a direct hit, and everyone in the church survived. The only fatality was a man who drove to the church to get his wife. (Thanks to wunderground member AGWcreationists for this link.) It's better to abandon your vehicle and take shelter in a ditch, if you are caught in a car during a tornado.


Video 1. The Weather Channel storm chasers weren't the only ones who got themselves in an extremely dangerous situation on May 31. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them.


Video 2. When the hunters became the hunted: Weather Channel storm chasers ‪Mike Bettes and two photographers were in their Tornado Hunt vehicle when they were hit by a tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31,‬ ‪2013. ‬The tornado picked their car up off the ground and rolled it 6 - 8 times before depositing it in a field 200 yards away. All the occupants were wearing seat belts and the air bags deployed, likely saving their lives. Bettes sustained minor injuries, including stitches in his hand. It was the first injury sustained by a Weather Channel personality covering violent weather, according to company spokesperson Shirley Powell.

A storm chasers' nightmare
Cars and tornadoes can prove a dangerous mix even for the world's most experienced storm chasers. Driving at high speeds though heavy rain, large hail, and high winds is hazardous. If one is lucky enough to chase down a tornado, even the most experienced chasers can find themselves in a serious life-threatening situation when unpredictable events occur. Tornadoes by their nature are unpredictable, and can change course unexpectedly, or pop up suddenly. It's particularly dangerous when a tornado is wrapped in rain, making it hard to see, or if a chaser is operating in a heavily populated area, where roads may suddenly become congested. All four of these conditions occurred Friday during the El Reno tornado, and it is very fortunate that multiple chasers were not killed. The El Reno tornado was wrapped in rain and difficult to see as it headed west towards Oklahoma City. The twister suddenly made a jog to the southeast as a Weather Channel team led by Mike Bettes was attempting to get in front of the storm, and the tornado lifted their vehicle off the ground, rolled it multiple times, and hurled it 200 yards into a nearby field. StormChasingVideo.com storm chaser Brandon Sullivan and his chase partner Brett Wright got caught in the tornado northwest of Union City, OK and slammed with debris as the tornado hit a barn that exploded in front of them. Meteorologist Emily Sutton and storm chaser Kevin Josefy of local Oklahoma City TV station KFOR also had a very close call with the El Reno tornado Friday afternoon. They got too close to the tornado, and were forced to floor the car in reverse to escape flying debris. With branches of trees crashing around them, Sutton began feeling debris hitting her back, and realized that the rear windshield of the car must have gotten destroyed. Both were uninjured. Reed Timmer's armor-plated "Dominator" chase vehicle had its hood torn off by the tornado. Wunderground member Levi32 was out storm chasing during the El Reno Tornado, and got stuck in traffic on Highway 4 and couldn't move. "We looked up above the car and saw the wall cloud over top of us, with very quick rotation and rising scud indicating the updraft. We were definitely too close. We made it home safely last night, but not until after an insanely wild day. One hour of chasing turned into six more of being chased by at least 2 tornadoes and a 3rd wall cloud, one of which was the one that went right through downtown Oklahoma City. At one point we were stuck in traffic underneath the El Rino wall cloud watching rotating, rising scud directly above the car. I am hoping and praying that the daylight does not reveal more fatalities.

Would I go again? Yes, but not today, or tomorrow, and I would take even greater care. We had no clue we would get caught the way we did. I thought we had done everything right. We were kind of freaking out for a while. That velocity signature you guys saw with radar folding and multiple vortices - we were under the southern edge of it. We never got a clear view of the tornado, but we could tell just how close it was to our north. It was unreal. The inflow got pretty strong.

We were almost ready to jump out and take cover right before we found a route south, which ended up being slow. It became a six-lane highway south as everyone panicked and drove on the wrong side of the road. Even we did so. We thought we were clear until we saw the training of tornadic supercells on radar, all connected somehow. I've never seen anything like that. My best pictures of the day were of the wall cloud that followed behind the El Reno storm. We didn't see a funnel from that one either, but it chased us south for a long time, and we heard from radio that it spawned a confirmed tornado in Tuttle, when we realized that we were in Tuttle.

A third mesocyclone showed up behind that one as we continued slowly south, eventually reaching Blanchard. It looked weaker than the others but we weren't going to escape it, so we took shelter in a storm room in the local grocery store for about an hour. It then took a long time to find a way around the huge hail cores to get back home. Lightning flashes were occurring 10 times per second as we drove home in the dark. It was almost calming to watch as we got over the semi-shock that we were all in. None of us in the car had seen a tornado before. We didn't see one yesterday, but we were chased by two."



Video 3. Birth of the El Reno wedge tornado. As the tornado touched down, it produced a rare display of suction vortices.

Video 4. Storm chasers Jeff Piotrowski and Kathryn Piotrowski captured impressive footage of a double vortex tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

Severe storms causing major flooding
The 5.64" of rain that fell at the Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport on Friday was their 6th wettest day in city history, and brought the total rainfall for the month of May to 14.52", the wettest May in Oklahoma City's history (Thanks to BaltimoreBrian for this link.) The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, cresting at its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning. The heavy rains have spread eastwards on Saturday, causing more flooding problems. Paducah, KY had its wettest June day and 3rd wettest day on record on June 1, with 5.73" of rain (all-time record: 7.49" on 9/5/1985.) Major flooding is occurring along a substantial stretch of the Mississippi River in Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.


Figure 5. The North Canadian River in Oklahoma City rose sixteen feet in twelve hours, reaching its 2nd highest flood on record this Saturday morning.


Figure 6. Radar-estimated rainfall in the Oklahoma City area reached 8+" over some areas from Friday's storm.

Remains of Hurricane Barbara may bring heavy rains to Mexico, Florida, and Cuba
Today, June 1, is the official first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we already have our first Atlantic tropical disturbance to talk about. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has left behind an area of disturbed weather over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. There is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Barbara's remnants apparent on satellite loops this Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. Moisture from the remnants of Barbara may combine with moisture from an area of heavy thunderstorms expected to build over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and begin bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains may spread to Southwest Florida as early as Monday night. The computer models predict that this disturbance should be large and poorly organized, making development into a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone unlikely.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters
LotsOfWater...
LotsOfWater...
from the heavy rains overnight, flowing over this low water bridge. We were waiting to see if something about our size drove over it okay (we were in a Toyota Pickup), this is a bit bigger than us, lol.
Sunset Strike
Sunset Strike
NE Oklahoma is under the gun, again today. Severe weather, threatens to produce more damaging storms.
tornado
tornado
near bennington, ks

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting NOAA:
well, if this hypothetical CMC storm comes true (which it probably will not, because we all know CMC can't go a season with out at least a 25% ghost storm rate) then where exactly would this go?


Quoting anotherwrongyear:
hold on a minute...... yesterday everyone was saying its a done deal and the low will develop and hit florida with tons of rain....... so which is it today? any real predictions?

Your local NWS office and the NHC should be your main sources of forecast predictions.

There are lots of great posters here, but just as many kooks. Take it all with a large grain of salt.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I don't know if it is, but on the visible for the GOM, it kind of looks like there is some sort of rotation over the tip of the Yucatan??
Quoting fsumet:


When did Daytona Beach get relocated to South Florida? I am not sure who said 10-20 inches, but the forecast from HPC was 7-10 inches for SOUTH FLORIDA. Many locations received 3-5 inches in South Florida yesterday. HPC has backed off slightly and is forecasting 4-8 inches for SOUTH FLORIDA. For Daytona Beach, 3-4 inches over the next 7 days.


The HPC often underestimated FL n events, I'm not too surprised. I don't see why not to go with model consensus, heck some of us in Central Florida last night picked up 4 to 5 inches of rain from a single line of sea breeze thunderstorms, a couple spots near 8 inches.
Quoting VR46L:


Not The cmc....



and for more dramatic effect...




But it is the CMC....

If the CMC is right, that means I will get rain at my house.

I never get rain at my house. My lawn is already dying.

Ergo, the CMC is wrong and the projection will not come to pass.

In the future, just ask if any model includes rain at my house. If not, you can discard that model and look at those that are the furthest away from my house. Those will be right.
506. VR46L
Quoting seminolesfan:

Your local NWS office and the NHC should be your main sources of forecast predictions.

There are lots of great posters here, but just as many kooks. Take it all with a large grain of salt.



Post of the day ,


its just an opinion forum .some are very good, but the professionals should be first port of call .


507. FOREX
Quoting sar2401:

If the CMC is right, that means I will get rain at my house.

I never get rain at my house. My lawn is already dying.

Ergo, the CMC is wrong and the projection will not come to pass.

In the future, just ask if any model includes rain at my house. If not, you can discard that model and look at those that are the furthest away from my house. Those will be right.


Where do you live? I'm in Panama City Beach.
508. VR46L
Hmm .. That really is the interesting blob .. the one off the Yucatan ..


NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes
Yeah, I see the CMC is out to lunch. It is HIGHLY unlikely that this system will find itself in an environment suitable for such deepening.

The NWS office in Tampa is leaning towards a blend of the euro and gfs as they have been a little more consistent in showing a weak warm core low moving NE from the tip of the Yucatan towards central-south Florida.

Regardless of the track or strength of the low, the entire peninsula will get a decent dousing this week, with a swath of VERY heavy rainfall totals likely somewhere in the central or southern peninsula.

This isn't the type of system that will have you running to home depot or anything, just a rain event with the possibility of discrete, tropical supercells training over the western coast of Florida providing the possibility of tornadoes.

I see this more likely happening on Tuesday and Wednesday assuming the low closes off since Florida would be in the rear front quadrant of the vorticity.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.


hurricane season is official now..
starting to get a bit more organized starting to look like one. nw carib looks like a slow mover i look for development day three not five like the models say
514. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


I honestly didn't realize it was a 10%er .... I swear to God !
515. FOREX
Quoting islander101010:
starting to get a bit more organized nw carib looks like a slow mover


Is it possible the fronts will not pick it up?
Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)

Quoting VR46L:


I honestly didn't realize it was a 10%er .... I swear to God !


Lol..
Good Eye VR46L..
It looks to be a bit of energy in a good spot for development..

Any Blobs on African Continent worthy of a look?
518. FOREX
Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)



Maybe landfall between Tampa and Cedar Key?
519. VR46L
Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks like we may Tropical Storm Andrea this week as portrayed by our 3 main models: GFS, ECMWF, and CMC (respectively)

GFS (Day 5)



ECMWF (Day 5)



CMC (Day 5: likely too fast and bullish with development)



Na it would only be a named storm with the CMC solution.. the other two models at best a depression .... but more than likely just a rain making low....
hmm this is interesting between last night and now this has changed

more E more in the GOH/W Carib further S now extending down deep into the GOH

I dont make forecasts..no way am I qualified to do so but I will say the CMC is about to make believers out of all of yall..the CMC was the only model that saw the EPAC first storm..also out performed the GFS and Euro with the Indian Ocean twin storms..keep sleeping if you want..:)
522. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Lol..
Good Eye VR46L..
It looks to be a bit of energy in a good spot for development..

Any Blobs on African Continent worthy of a look?



Thanks !!


Not really

The last one was dead within 12 hours of hitting the water

but I guess some could argue that these have potential



But really poor looking



523. FOREX
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont make forecasts..no way am I qualified to do so but I will say the CMC is about to make believers out of all of yall..the CMC was the only model that saw the EPAC first storm..also out performed the GFS and Euro with the Indian Ocean twin storms..keep sleeping if you want..:)


Well if the CMC prevails, we really need the rain in the Panhandle badly.
VRL64- or anyone-

Rain for Ft Myers? Orlando? Jacksonville?

VRL64, you KNOW waffles have syrup. This is a sticky situation.


Good view of smpke from the Powerhouse fire in Los Angeles county. That is the county dead center in this image and the origin of the fire is half way up the left side of the county. The winds were off shore yesterday and have switched back onshore and the smoke is swirling all over. I post these maps often to show the extensive Marine layer we sometimes have and it is present big time this morning. 65.0 here right now (7:27PDT)
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF
They just confirmed that the 3 tornadoe chasers were kill on TWC.This is so sad to hear.Prayers are with the families
6z NAM-last frame of 84 hours-and no the NAM is not a tropical model but supposed to be good in determining atmospheric conditions..

I am not sure if anyone already made a comment about this, but 3 of the people who died in the El Reno tornado seems to be storm chasers from the Twistex team.
I just heard that Tim Sameras was killed in the tornado :( Rest In Peace to him and all who were killed

rotation over the tip of the Yucatan
According to some Twitter accounts from some weather personalities I follow, it was Tim Samaras, his son Paul, and Carl Young. There was a blogpost on it they linked to, but it's currently down with a database error.

Edit: CNN Story on it: http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/02/us/midwest-weather/i ndex.html

Quoting Doppler22:
I just heard that Tim Sameras was killed in the tornado :( Rest In Peace to him and all who were killed
Please help very confused...

1)Why is the blog so slow. I keep getting "the connection is reset" error messages when I try to reload. Advice?

2) Why is everyone saying this storm will head toward SFL when it seems apparent on the models that it will head anywhere from Tampa to Cedar Key. Is it location bias?
the NAM is not a tropical model

Isn't that what NAM stands for?

Not A Model?
Condolences to the Samaras and Young team
It not in the Bay of Campeche it in the Caribbean that why
Quoting gator23:
Please help very confused...

1)Why is the blog so slow. I keep getting "the connection is reset" error messages when I try to reload. Advice?

2) Why is everyone saying this storm will head toward SFL when it seems apparent on the models that it will head anywhere from Tampa to Cedar Key. Is it location bias?
Quoting beltane:
the NAM is not a tropical model

Isn't that what NAM stands for?

Not A Model?


North American Mesoscale Model:

Link
Quoting scottsvb:
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF


Exactly, If shear remain high over the Gulf it would allow the convection to be shear to the right of the LLC. Thus, causing it to decouple and a new Low to possibly reform closer to the convection. It would be interesting to see if conditions will be more favorable after it crosses the Florida Peninsula. But that is still highly uncertain. But I can understand to GFS splitting to system. However, it could some convective feedback as well.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good view of smpke from the Powerhouse fire in Los Angeles county. That is the county dead center in this image and the origin of the fire is half way up the left side of the county. The winds were off shore yesterday and have switched back onshore and the smoke is swirling all over. I post these maps often to show the extensive Marine layer we sometimes have and it is present big time this morning. 65.0 here right now (7:27PDT)


Thanks for posting that Ped..
I hope they get a better handle on it today..
20% contained last I heard..
Quoting gator23:
Please help very confused...

1)Why is the blog so slow. I keep getting "the connection is reset" error messages when I try to reload. Advice?

2) Why is everyone saying this storm will head toward SFL when it seems apparent on the models that it will head anywhere from Tampa to Cedar Key. Is it location bias?


Can't help you with question one, but for questions two here is my answer:

Regardless of where the center goes (if there ever even is a LLC) the main threat will be heavy rainfall. If this system does develop it will most likely be a sheared mess and heavy rains will extend far away from the center, primarily in the eastern half of the storm. So I would not try to pick a possible landfall location at this time since there is still a lot up in the air.
I had a bad feeling a storm chaser died in this storm, I think this proves that chasers are pushing things way too much. It used to be a chaser observed from a safe distance; took some photos, videos etc and sold them to the local news station for a small profit. However, now they push the limits. They need to get up literally right next to it however they leave themselves in a position where they only have seconds to escape if things go bad.

This week illustrated that chasing when done unsafely will get you injured or sadly in the case of Tim Samaras killed.
542. VR46L
Quoting beltane:
VRL64- or anyone-

Rain for Ft Myers? Orlando? Jacksonville?

VRL64, you KNOW waffles have syrup. This is a sticky situation.



Here I will post ya 5 day Totals of the last GFS and CMC runs ....

GFS 5 DAY




Quoting K8eCane:
Condolences to the Samaras and Young team

It was hard for me cause I got word via twitter about 1pm my time and was in disbelief. I wasn't sure about it as there was no other "real" news about it until it was confirmed via his Brother on facebook. Such shocking news.
Quoting VR46L:Post # 522



Thanks !!


Not really

The last one was dead within 12 hours of hitting the water

but I guess some could argue that these have potential



But really poor looking





Oh well..
A little early for Cape Verde anyway..
I am kinda board with the mess in the Carr./BOC..
Thanks for posting VR46L.. :)
Quite a difference in air masses bisecting the U.S.Notice the gulf and the weird spin.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It was hard for me cause I got word via twitter about 1pm my time and was in disbelief. I wasn't sure about it as there was no other "real" news about it until it was confirmed via his Brother on facebook. Such shocking news.



Definitely heavy hearted about it too Aussie
WPC model diagnostic discussion

...LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY...

PREFERENCE: 02/00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE UKMET/NAM/CANADIAN MODELS TEND TO SHOW ENOUGH
WEAKNESS IN THEIR SFC ISOBARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A TROF...OR
POSSIBLY A LOW CENTER...IN THE ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA THUS STILL
THIS AN AVERAGE RATING IS ADEQUATE.

...INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

ALTHOUGH DETAILS VARY...THE 02/00Z NCEP AND NON NCEP MODELS SHOW
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BY DEPICTING AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD AND ACCOMPANYING
UNCERTAINTY...THE RECOMMENDATION IS FOR THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WHILE DISCOUNTING THE TYPICALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW CENTER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CANADIAN.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
rotation over the tip of the Yucatan
I see it to
Oh no! Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and Carl Young were all killed during the tornado that hit El Reno. These guys were apart of the TWISTEX on "stormchasers." These guys were true professionals, not your daily youtube chaser -- they were out to educate and study, not for money or the glory of it. RIP.


Link
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I wonder why they would deactivate the invest (again)? It is going to take a few days to come together. Either "un-invest" it until it gets its act together or leave it an invest as it takes its time to form.


How do you think the forecasters get even with one another for leaving the office coffee pot empty?
Quoting AussieStorm:

It was hard for me cause I got word via twitter about 1pm my time and was in disbelief. I wasn't sure about it as there was no other "real" news about it until it was confirmed via his Brother on facebook. Such shocking news.
Hello Aussie..I am just now getting the news about Tim Samaras. May he rest in God. Was he the only fatality.?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.
Here is the current upper level winds. Shear is falling over the Yucatan channel

It seem the system is trying to pull on an upper level ridge over the Yucatan and Mexico.
severe weather!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh no! Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and Carl Young were all killed during the tornado that hit El Reno. These guys were apart of the TWISTEX on "stormchasers." These guys were true professionals, not your daily youtube chaser -- they were out to educate and study, not for money or the glory of it. RIP.


Link
I was wondering what happened. It must have been a terrible for them.
The statistic I take from this unfortunate news is:

25 percent of the fatalities from the tornados in OK

were Storm Chasers...

3/12

Quoting MrstormX:
I had a bad feeling a storm chaser died in this storm, I think this proves that chasers are pushing things way too much. It used to be a chaser observed from a safe distance; took some photos, videos etc and sold them to the local news station for a small profit. However, now they push the limits. They need to get up literally right next to it however they leave themselves in a position where they only have seconds to escape if things go bad.

This week illustrated that chasing when done unsafely will get you injured or sadly in the case of Tim Samaras killed.


Sorry but I feel your wrong, Tim Samaras was never about getting the "money shot" but about getting scientific data to help provide answers as to where/when/why/how tornadoes develop and why some storms produce and some don't produce. His data collecting meant he had to get close to tornadoes, risky hell yes, but the data he was gathering was going into improving warnings and that helps save lives. That's what Tim and his crew were about, saving lives. R.I.P Tim Samaras. Paul Samaras and Carl Young
559. VR46L
Quoting scottsvb:
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF


Yeah........... pressures of 1004 Euro and 1006 GFS ... seems like a tropical storm to me ....... Not to mention the lack of more than one isobar around the low
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Aussie..I am just now getting the news about Tim Samaras. May he rest in God. Was he the only fatality.?

No, His son Paul and crew member Carl Young also passed away.
561. wxmod
Arctic Ice today. MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The statistic I take from this unfortunate news is:

25 percent of the fatalities from the tornados in OK

were Storm Chasers...

3/12


The news here tonight said 14 people had died from the Tornado. Not sure if it's 100% right since we are so far away.
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?
80% today going to get some big thunderstorms soon!
Quoting ncstorm:
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?


Not that I know of. They usually stake out an place before the hurricane makes landfall so less chance of things going bad. Hurricane are more predictable that Tornadoes.
Quoting ncstorm:
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?
The only thing that comes to mind is the 1955 recon flight into Hurricane Janet..Not anyone on land as far as I know.
Quoting scottsvb:
GFS and the ECMWF does show a pressure for a Tropical Storm in the GOM..lets get that clear compared to the CMC... but there will be some shear by late week and dry air in the midlevels that will push most of the convection to the east of the system and possibly leaving a LLC west of florida by Thurs...then a new LLC will form east of florida by Friday and push up the S.E. Coast. It's too early to tell if this will be classified as a TS by Tues evening or Weds...but I think the decoupling of the moisture will happen on Thurs unless the shear isn't as much.

The CMC doesn't put the shear and dry midlevel air that will push into the system. This is why it's showing a hurricane by Thurs. Is it out of the question? No, but let's keep with the GFS and ECMWF


Models have trended keeping the heaviest rainfall over the gulf.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The news here tonight said 14 people had died from the Tornado. Not sure if it's 100% right since we are so far away.


Not sure if that includes two deaths from the flooding - one a little girl swept away when family took cover in a ditch, the other a man swept away by flood waters on his way to work.
Quoting ncstorm:
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?


A crew of hurricane hunters lost their lives in a hurricane a long time ago. Dr. Masters actually had an engine fire into Hurricane Hugo.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Confirmation



Truly truly sad news.
Tim Samaras, a leader in tornado science, was about saving lives than getting the "money shot".
Anyways, I'm working on a video update now (new channel).
Quoting hydrus:
The only thing that comes to mind is the 1955 recon flight into Hurricane Janet..Not anyone on land as far as I know.


Also the Typhoon in the WPAC that took a crew, I think Dr Masters did a blog on that about 2yrs ago.
573. JRRP
,
Good morning/afternoon/evening, everyone

Interesting pictures on this site:

Link

A NOAA weather buoy got loose and travelled a "few" miles before being found.

Lindy
12Z NAM @ 18Z 6/5/13


Quoting daddyjames:


Not sure if that includes two deaths from the flooding - one a little girl swept away when family took cover in a ditch, the other a man swept away by flood waters on his way to work.


Update: And another woman discovered from flooding.

The rescue workers are still searching houses that were flooded and surveying rivers, as accessing some of the flooded ares has been difficult.

Recent Story
rotation over the tip of the Yucatan



Quoting hurricane23:


Models have trended keeping the heaviest rainfall over the gulf.
now this is believe a storm comming towards daytona from the west in the gulf then it falls apart and redevelops to the east of daytona and goes the other way daytona never gets much they always curve away to either the north the south or east
Quoting ncstorm:
has there ever been a storm chaser get killed while chasing a hurricane?


But there have been close calls, and it only is a matter of time . . . unfortunately.
Quoting Ricki13th:
Here is the current upper level winds. Shear is falling over the Yucatan channel

It seem the system is trying to pull on an upper level ridge over the Yucatan and Mexico.
ut oh another change in the forcast? wow cant believe that
12Z GFS coming out now at 9HR
Quoting daddyjames:


But there have been close calls, and it only is a matter of time . . . unfortunately.


Agree. No different than Steve Irwin. He got too close to a Ray and it took his life.
america has its own kind of martyrs big waves surfers. racers and dont forget the storm junkies get the umbrella ready
Morning all. WE are getting showers here again this morning.



So much for the fabled clearing... looks like continued showers off and on for the next 5 days, if this low pressure area hangs around the Yucatan area. Seems the shear is fetching the storm activity off towards the NW...

I do not see it being in the Bay of Campeche
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Link


Interesting the GFS has the heavy bands of upper level lifting north leaving the Southeastern Gulf under 20 knots. By Wednesday. Which will be about the time its predicted the form. However, shear forcast is extremely unpredictable.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
rotation over the tip of the Yucatan





Noticing convection is waning over the the Gulf and is refiring over the Yucatan channel might be trying to concentrate where conditions is a bit more favorable and where a supposed low is trying to form if this trend continues the chances may get bump up to 20% by 2pm.
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
ut oh another change in the forcast? wow cant believe that


This is an evolving situation. It will continue to change until (if) a defined low level center forms.
GFS has the moisture tracking ahead of the low pressure.

Quoting Ricki13th:
Here is the current upper level winds. Shear is falling over the Yucatan channel

It seem the system is trying to pull on an upper level ridge over the Yucatan and Mexico.

The whole situation is dependent on that anticyclone, moving away to the west, and allowing the shear to relax.
I think it's ironic that several years ago The Weather Channel used to Discourage people from Storm Chasing and now they encourage it by putting some of their own people in harms way and almost getting him killed in the process! What Hypocrites! They even try to hype up the story by saying that Mike Bettes chase vehicle rolled about 200-yards. Seems more like 20-yards to me. If he rolled over a distance of 200-yards he and the rest of his crew would have been killed for sure. 200-yards is the size of two football fields. Come On. With all this The Weather Channel's over-all credibility as a serious source of Weather Information has sunk to a new low. But we all knew this anyway once they put (Mr.Potato Head) Al Roker and his chatter-box side kick Stephanie Abrams on the air a few years ago. " Now remember everyone, just keep sending in your storm video and photo's here to TWC and we might even show it on the air" (And no, we will not pay you for it.)
Oklahoma tornadoes: Oklahoma City metro-area cities oppose public storm shelters

Absolutely amazing accounts of what people had to do to get shelter from the May 20th EF-5 Tornado in Moore.

Background information: MidWest City Commission voted January 2013 to close all public shelters. Apparently they have not done a good job of communicating that to the public.

Some selected tidbits:

"With a killer tornado on the ground in Moore and headed toward Midwest City, Marie Foster and about 40 others sought shelter at the Reed Center and its adjoining hotel May 20.
Foster was shocked to see frightened people turned away from what was once a public storm shelter. . . .

"There were children standing there, scared," she said. "It was pouring down rain and hail. People were terrified and asking to come inside. The police officers told them they needed to move on. You are on your own.""

"Many of those denied entry into the Reed Center had pulled off Interstate 40 after hearing reports on the radio telling them to get off the highway and find shelter at the nearest sturdy building."

"Foster and her husband were allowed into the hotel connected to the Reed Center when they agreed to rent a room. Those who didn't have the money were not."

Yeah, OK comes together after something happens, but while its happening - you are on your own.

Corrected to reflect that this is what occurred during the EF-5 tornado that hit Moore on May 20th.
Quoting daddyjames:
Oklahoma tornadoes: Oklahoma City metro-area cities oppose public storm shelters

Absolutely amazing accounts of what people had to do to get shelter from the most recent storm.

Background information: MidWest City Commission voted January 2013 to close all public shelters. Apparently they have not done a good job of communicating that to the public.

Some selected tidbits:

"With a killer tornado on the ground in Moore and headed toward Midwest City, Marie Foster and about 40 others sought shelter at the Reed Center and its adjoining hotel May 20.
Foster was shocked to see frightened people turned away from what was once a public storm shelter. . . .

“There were children standing there, scared,” she said. “It was pouring down rain and hail. People were terrified and asking to come inside. The police officers told them they needed to move on. You are on your own.”"

"Many of those denied entry into the Reed Center had pulled off Interstate 40 after hearing reports on the radio telling them to get off the highway and find shelter at the nearest sturdy building."

"Foster and her husband were allowed into the hotel connected to the Reed Center when they agreed to rent a room. Those who didn't have the money were not."

Yeah, OK comes together after something happens, but while its happening - you are on your own.

This was during the EF-5 tornado that hit Moore on May 20th.


At Will Rogers World Airport, 2,000 people spent the night sheltering in underground tunnels, reports News 9.

Fifty people took shelter in the freezer at a Sinclair gas station in south Oklahoma City. In the freezer some people were freaking out and crying, while some comforted others and few told jokes, revealed Beverly Allam, 57.

When she emerged from the freezer her car windshield had been shattered by the hail. On her way home after the worst had passed 'the roads were like rivers,' she said.

hmm look like low forming in the GOH originally I though I saw a spin on NE tip of yucatan but now its look to have well flatlined out now thinking about it it truly does look like a flat line it still shas a very very slight rotation but looks more like a trof now
now in the GOH there seem to be a bigger rotation looking at the clouds around it its rotating and it seems centered around the GOH
Excerpt from the storm I posted earlier..

Amy Williamson, who lives just off I-40 in the western Oklahoma City suburb of Yukon, said when she heard the tornado was heading towards her home, she put her children, baby sitter and cats in her car and drove away.

'I'm a seasoned tornado watcher ... but I just could not see staying and waiting for it to hit,' she said.

The family sheltered from the storm in a hospital parking garage.

A 51-year-old teacher's assistant who also tried to run from the storm said she quickly regretted her decision, after becoming stuck in traffic in the path of the tornado.

'It was chaos ... Everybody was running for their lives,' Terri Black, who lives in Moore, said.

'My car was actually lifted off the road and then set back down,' Ms Black said. 'The trees were leaning literally to the ground. The rain was coming down horizontally in front of my car. Big blue trash cans were being tossed around like a piece of paper in the wind. I'll never do it again.'

Though the state's transportation authorities strongly advised citizens not to drive, some interstate highways in Oklahoma were jammed with stalled traffic, as heavy rains drenched roadways and flooded low-lying areas.

Officials described parts of Interstates 35 and 40 near Oklahoma City as 'a parking lot.'

Quoting ncstorm:


At Will Rogers World Airport, 2,000 people spent the night sheltering in underground tunnels, reports News 9.



What I find particularly callous is that the hotel would not let anyone in unless they rented a room, and if they had no money - tough luck.

Kudos to those businesses that open their doors because they have a sense of decency.
Quoting Hurrihistory:
I think it's ironic that several years ago The Weather Channel used to Discourage people from Storm Chasing and now they encourage it by putting some of their own people in harms way and almost getting him killed in the process! What Hypocrites! They even try to hype up the story by saying that Mike Bettes chase vehicle rolled about 200-yards. Seems more like 20-yards to me. If he rolled over a distance of 200-yards he and the rest of his crew would have been killed for sure. 200-yards is the size of two football fields. Come On. With all this The Weather Channel's over-all credibility as a serious source of Weather Information has sunk to a new low. But we all knew this anyway once they put (Mr.Potato Head) Al Roker and his chatter-box side kick Stephanie Abrams on the air a few years ago. " Now remember everyone, just keep sending in your storm video and photo's here to TWC and we might even show it on the air" (And no, we will not pay you for it.)
yes i totally agree the weather channel is total garbage .... i cant remeber the last time they got anything right and i never watch them.... nooa is good though
Back from some days out with my family I just had to learn about the severe weather outbreak and the deaths in the US. I'm so sorry for all who are affected.
But Germany south to my place and the adjacent countries to the East were severly damaged by catastrophic rainfall and flooding as well. Four people dead, and the threat is going on in some regions. There is a catastrophic emergency alert in some places of south-eastern Germany.
Here only two links because I feel that you're all busy with the developments in the US.



German city of Passau at the Danube River

BBC: Central Europe on alert for flooding

EuroNews Video: Flood disaster warnings in Central Europe
02/06 15:45 CET

Hey guys. Just a heads up, I've made a decision to leave this account and I made a new account using my actual name. Would rather be known around the blog with my actual identity instead this fake username, had a lot of good time tracking and had some great memories on this account but I think I'd rather move onto something offical to my name. I really want to make this my future. Though I still have things to learn? Ready to make this a full time effort to be on the blog an post.
Hope you guys agree with my choice as well.
evacuating metro miami would be a nightmare something big coming out of the biscayne bay would cause panic
Quoting Hurrihistory:
I think it's ironic that several years ago The Weather Channel used to Discourage people from Storm Chasing and now they encourage it by putting some of their own people in harms way and almost getting him killed in the process! What Hypocrites! They even try to hype up the story by saying that Mike Bettes chase vehicle rolled about 200-yards. Seems more like 20-yards to me. If he rolled over a distance of 200-yards he and the rest of his crew would have been killed for sure. 200-yards is the size of two football fields. Come On. With all this The Weather Channel's over-all credibility as a serious source of Weather Information has sunk to a new low. But we all knew this anyway once they put (Mr.Potato Head) Al Roker and his chatter-box side kick Stephanie Abrams on the air a few years ago. " Now remember everyone, just keep sending in your storm video and photo's here to TWC and we might even show it on the air" (And no, we will not pay you for it.)


Actually, I thought they did a good job covering the storms Friday night. Angry much?
Quoting daddyjames:


What I find particularly callous is that the hotel would not let anyone in unless they rented a room, and if they had no money - tough luck.

Kudos to those businesses that open their doors because they have a sense of decency.


its got to get better..everyone doesnt have the financial means to evacuate..

some type of legislative needs to be mandated that in situations like this, people can take shelter in more reinforce places and NOT be turned away..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh no! Tim Samaras, his son Paul Samaras, and Carl Young were all killed during the tornado that hit El Reno. These guys were apart of the TWISTEX on "stormchasers." These guys were true professionals, not your daily youtube chaser -- they were out to educate and study, not for money or the glory of it. RIP.


Link

Sad, sad news indeed. Tim was an early leader in attempting to place instrument packages directy in tormado paths. He wasn't often successful but, when he was, he recorded some truly amazing things, like a 100 millibar pressure drop in one of the tornadoes that the instruments managed to actually measure. He was not a "chaser" in the more modern definition of the term, but he did take some incredible risks over the last 30 years.

I haven't been able to find out exactly where the fatalities occured or how, but it sounds like their vehicle must have taken a direct hit from the El Reno tornado. A Channel 7 (Denver) News Story mentions that all their camera equipment is still missing and the family and authorities are searching for it. Given the delay in this story, I assume that identification was not easy to make and, without more speculation, it must have been a violent but hopefully quick death for the three people killed.

This should certainly be a sobering reminder that there's no "safe" way to chase tornadoes. If a tornado can get Tim and his crew, as well as Mike Bettes and his crew, it can surely get many of the less experienced people out there.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Hard to fully put into words my thoughts on the developing situation. Samaras' feature speaker talk at the Des Moines Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference (probe data from Manchester EF4) was one of the things I remember as stirring my interest in tornadoes and severe weather meteorology. In person he gave off such a strong, repectable character vibe. He made you feel like you were doing real help for the science. My first (and so far, only) "inside a tornado" experience was on the TWISTEX team.


The tornado data that brought Tim Samaras into the spotlight:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=tor2003jun24_samar as

Aerodynamically-designed probes were deployed directly in the path of an F-4 tornado near Manchester, South Dakota, on June 24th, 2003. These autonomous probes performed in-situ ground-level measurements of the free-field static pressure, temperature, and relative humidity as the tornado passed directly over the probes. A sharp pressure drop lasting about 40 seconds was observed. Of particular interest was the maximum recorded pressure drop of about 100 mbar, as well as several smaller fluctuations of notable amplitude. This paper describes the measurements made during this event and discusses the significance of the results in terms of the dynamic structure of the tornado.
https://ams.confex.com/ams/11aram22sls/techprogra m/paper_81700.htm

From one of the my more "memorable" summers involved with Tim Samaras:
As the storm approached, the crew
noted that the supercell was moving more sharply to the
right of its former course, placing them near the projected
path of the low-level mesocyclone. The crew drove south
on Highway 259, attempting to position south of the low-
level mesocyclone before it crossed the highway. With
considerable tree cover in this region hampering the vi-
sual observation of the storm's features, TWISTEX crews
could not position south of the mesocyclone on Highway
259 before the mesocyclone reached this road. Thus, the
two mobile mesonet stations, M2 and M3, had an un-
planned tornado encounter with a developing tornadic
circulation while the mesonet was traveling south on
Highway 259.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010M WR3201.1
Page 2582

Tim's contributions to tornado science were tough to top by other people calling themselves chasers. Others had much longer times interacting with Tim directly, but from my short stint I know his character was top notch (that goes for Carl, too).

Thanks for the memories, Tim.
Just found out the news few minutes ago on Twitter. I still got a sick feeling to my stomach as I know Tim before his death in Oklahoma. He was on Storm Chasers on Discovery sometimes and I read his book a few months ago. To those who didn't know Tim, this guy was a true professional as he risks his life putting down probes for research. He wasn't one of those thrill seeking and extreme videos maker. He was just doing it to save other lives. May he rest in peace.
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh pleaseeeeeee stop it already
Quoting pcola57:


???
He's not getting any...
Quoting VR46L:


You know I am convinced that on this disturbance, the fronts that are coming down are going to have a huge effect . Not sure how, be it set it spinning or ripping it apart sending some into Texas and some to Florida at the moment it appears the WPC are going with the second solution
I was looking at that forecasted front and thinking it would just funnel that moisture up along the FL GoM coast and over into the ATL... i.e. more moisture for the same areas that got heavy rains the last 2 weeks...
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont make forecasts..no way am I qualified to do so but I will say the CMC is about to make believers out of all of yall..the CMC was the only model that saw the EPAC first storm..also out performed the GFS and Euro with the Indian Ocean twin storms..keep sleeping if you want..:)
Ppple keep missing the POINT of the CMC... it's the cyclogenesis sniff-and-point dog of the bunch... I tend to think of very strong systems portrayed in the CMC as less a marker of actual storm intensity and more a sign of confidence. If CMC is forecasting a cat 5, you can be fairly sure there's going to be a low of some kind tracking in that area. You have to check other models for accurate intensity forecasts...
Look at the moisture stream into Florida in this loop.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just found out the news few minutes ago on Twitter. I still got a sick feeling to my stomach as I know Tim before his death in Oklahoma. He was on Storm Chasers on Discovery sometimes and I read his book a few months ago. To those who didn't know Tim, this guy was a true professional as he risks his like putting down probes for research. He wasn't one of those thrill seeking and extreme videos maker. He was just doing it to save other lives. May he rest in peace.

I remember seeing him on Storm Chasers as well. Its quite sad to know that he's passed on.
And its cool to see the chasers giving him a tribute by making a TS on the spotter Network in North Dakota.
Quoting ncstorm:


its got to get better..everyone doesnt have the financial means to evacuate..

some type of legislative needs to be mandated that in situations like this, people can take shelter in more reinforce places and NOT be turned away..


It'll take a lot from the "leaders" here in parts of OK.

Oklahoma tornadoes: Oklahoma City metro-area cities oppose public storm shelters


The article ends with Moore Emergency Management Director Gayland Kitch saying:

“Ultimately you are responsible for your own safety,” Kitch said. “We provide people with information. That's what the sirens are about. How they choose to act on it is up to them.”
Quoting barbamz:
Back from some days out with my family I just had to learn about the severe weather outbreak and the deaths in the US. I'm so sorry for all who are affected.
But Germany south to my place and the adjacent countries to the East were severly damaged by catastrophic rainfall and flooding as well. Four people dead, and the threat is going on in some regions. There is a catastrophic emergency alert in some places of south-eastern Germany.
Here only two links because I feel that you're all busy with the developments in the US.



German city of Passau at the Danube River

BBC: Central Europe on alert for flooding

EuroNews Video: Flood disaster warnings in Central Europe
02/06 15:45 CET



We would welcome you posting more information about what is happening in Europe, not less. We tend to be very US centric/Atlantic Tropical Activity in this blog, but all weather related information is welcome.
Quoting daddyjames:


What I find particularly callous is that the hotel would not let anyone in unless they rented a room, and if they had no money - tough luck.

Kudos to those businesses that open their doors because they have a sense of decency.

What about public shelters?
I cannot believe they are being shut down because officials say they give a false sense of security or encourage people to drive to a safe area when they are are better off staying home.
What the heck is going on in Oklahoma?
Quoting daddyjames:


It'll take a lot from the "leaders" here in parts of OK.

Oklahoma tornadoes: Oklahoma City metro-area cities oppose public storm shelters


The article ends with Moore Emergency Management Director Gayland Kitch saying:

“Ultimately you are responsible for your own safety,” Kitch said. “We provide people with information. That's what the sirens are about. How they choose to act on it is up to them.”


whats the sirens for if the shelters are not in place or accessible??..
I can't believe it. Tim, Paul, and Carl? They were always so cautious, so hesitant to get anywhere near a regular tornado, much less a rain-wrapped tornado.
Quoting barbamz:
Back from some days out with my family I just had to learn about the severe weather outbreak and the deaths in the US. I'm so sorry for all who are affected.
But Germany south to my place and the adjacent countries to the East were severly damaged by catastrophic rainfall and flooding as well. Four people dead, and the threat is going on in some regions. There is a catastrophic emergency alert in some places of south-eastern Germany.
Here only two links because I feel that you're all busy with the developments in the US.



German city of Passau at the Danube River

BBC: Central Europe on alert for flooding

EuroNews Video: Flood disaster warnings in Central Europe
02/06 15:45 CET



Thank you Barb for your sympathies..
I now see Germany's flood warning are at catastrophy alert..
Euro Video shows alot of flooding..
I hope your family outing went well..
Thanks for keeping us updated..
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The statistic I take from this unfortunate news is:

25 percent of the fatalities from the tornados in OK

were Storm Chasers...

3/12


Those three were all in the same vehicle, though I'm not endorsing tornado chasing.
Quoting daddyjames:


It'll take a lot from the "leaders" here in parts of OK.

Oklahoma tornadoes: Oklahoma City metro-area cities oppose public storm shelters


The article ends with Moore Emergency Management Director Gayland Kitch saying:

“Ultimately you are responsible for your own safety,” Kitch said. “We provide people with information. That's what the sirens are about. How they choose to act on it is up to them.”
.

sirens are mainly for people outside. WX radios are for people both inside and outside. but shutting people out is like holding a life ring while standing a few feet away from someone drowning. Totally wrong
Quoting FOREX:


Where do you live? I'm in Panama City Beach.

Eufaula AL, just up the road. Current radar is showing a few showers around PCB. As usual, there is nothing up here. My lawn now looks like it has green and brown measles. I mean, for crying out loud, it's 87 with a dewpoint of 72 and all we have is a few scattered clouds. You'd think a Cessna flying by would generate enough instability to at least give me a lousy 2 minute shower. :-)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The statistic I take from this unfortunate news is:

25 percent of the fatalities from the tornados in OK

were Storm Chasers...

3/12

What percentage of fatalities were on the road? in vehicles?

This business with people getting in cars to run from storms seems to me like a disaster waiting to happen. [still remembering what happened w/ Rita evac in TX]

I also don't understand refusing motorists on a highway a place inside your business if you have a sturdy building. If your worry is insurance etc [aka money] change your laws to say that if a person seeking shelter in a public place chooses to shelter in that place [rather than being sent there by officials] the owner of the place is not liable for their injuries.

maybe two tropical storm to watch down the road.. some kind of storm moving up the east coast or hangout there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe it. Tim, Paul, and Carl? They were always so cautious, so hesitant to get anywhere near a regular tornado, much less a rain-wrapped tornado.
Which tells us that if even over-cautious, well-prepared, highly-experienced professionals can nevertheless find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time, what chance do thrill-seeking, inexperienced, ill-prepared, and careless amateur chasers have?

(Of course, it also tells us--again--just how stupid is the advice to "get in your car and drive away from it!" But we already know that.)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hey guys. Just a heads up, I've made a decision to leave this account and I made a new account using my actual name. Would rather be known around the blog with my actual identity instead this fake username, had a lot of good time tracking and had some great memories on this account but I think I'd rather move onto something offical to my name. I really want to make this my future. Though I still have things to learn? Ready to make this a full time effort to be on the blog an post.
Hope you guys agree with my choice as well.
We still need to know it is you.
Quoting Hurrihistory:
I think it's ironic that several years ago The Weather Channel used to Discourage people from Storm Chasing and now they encourage it by putting some of their own people in harms way and almost getting him killed in the process! What Hypocrites! They even try to hype up the story by saying that Mike Bettes chase vehicle rolled about 200-yards. Seems more like 20-yards to me. If he rolled over a distance of 200-yards he and the rest of his crew would have been killed for sure. 200-yards is the size of two football fields. Come On. With all this The Weather Channel's over-all credibility as a serious source of Weather Information has sunk to a new low. But we all knew this anyway once they put (Mr.Potato Head) Al Roker and his chatter-box side kick Stephanie Abrams on the air a few years ago. " Now remember everyone, just keep sending in your storm video and photo's here to TWC and we might even show it on the air" (And no, we will not pay you for it.)


As with most of the visual media industry, the emphasis has changed from information to entertainment. With the proliferation of bandwidth and smart phones, folks reduce the amount of time spent on the television getting information. All you have to do is see how the TWC programming schedule has changed over the past 5 years or so.

Give the people what they want.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe it. Tim, Paul, and Carl? They were always so cautious, so hesitant to get anywhere near a regular tornado, much less a rain-wrapped tornado.


I wonder what happened, I suspect it was because their route of escape was blocked by traffic from people fleeing.
the spin on land!! look at the weather map.
Quoting Chicklit:

What about public shelters?
I cannot believe they are being shut down because officials say they give a false sense of security or encourage people to drive to a safe area when they are are better off staying home.
What the heck is going on in Oklahoma?


Chicktlit see my post #595 or read the article:

Oklahoma tornadoes: Oklahoma City metro-area cities oppose public storm shelters

?????
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe it. Tim, Paul, and Carl? They were always so cautious, so hesitant to get anywhere near a regular tornado, much less a rain-wrapped tornado.
When I read about this, I thought of the toreadors... they are very, very skilled, very knowledgeable, very trained, very quick.

But every now and then, the bull wins.

I also remembered the young chaser who was killed in the accident with the drunkard driving the wrong way down the highway last year [forgive me, I don't recall his name]. If you are a tornado chaser and you have to die on the road, I'd bet any one of them would choose to be chasing when it happens....

RIP.
I send my condolences to the families of Tim, Paul, and Carl. I learned a lot from their stint on Discovery. I know some people will say negative things about chasing but professional chasers are a huge resource for public safety. This is a loss that will be felt far and wide.
Quoting ncstorm:


whats the sirens for if the shelters are not in place or accessible??..


Did you read the last sentence? Hey, we warned you - and that is all the responsibility that public officials feel is necessary to the general public in the larger metropolitan areas of OK.

Their philosophy is: "You are on your own." Really.
12z GFS
171 hours
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wonder what happened, I suspect it was because their route of escape was blocked by traffic from people fleeing.

I think but not 100% sure it was due to the Tornado suddenly changing direction like what happened to TWC crew.
Dr. Masters just gave a audio interview on TWC concerning Tim and Paul Samaras and Carl Young..
He sent out his condolences and talked about storm/tornado chasing and his suprise that more deaths in the storm chasing community haven't occured..
I would guess he will be updating his blog shortly..
Quoting daddyjames:


Did you read the last sentence? Hey, we warned you - and that is all the responsibility that public officials feel is necessary to the general public.

Their philosopy is: "You are on your own." Really.


ridiculous thinking..
Quoting AussieStorm:

I think but not 100% sure it was due to the Tornado suddenly changing direction like what happened to TWC crew.


That must be it, so sad.
638. MPI88
We've got a major flood (> 2002 major flood level) in the Danube River near Passau (Germany). The Rhine river is elevated as well, not as bad though.

Floods are highly uncommon in June, its actually the first major flood in June in ~300 years.
Danube River:




Rhine River:

Quoting Chicklit:

What about public shelters?
I cannot believe they are being shut down because officials say they give a false sense of security or encourage people to drive to a safe area when they are are better off staying home.
What the heck is going on in Oklahoma?

There is some logic to this. Community shelters in rural areas, especially areas with a high proportion of mobile homes, makes sense. Shelters in suburban or urban areas only encourage people to leave homes that will generally protect them and drive to a shelter. This leaves them at risk of being caught on the road by a tornado, which is much more likely to kill you than sheltering in the best place you can find in even a marginally well built single story structure. There's also the issue of lead time. Although several of the Oklahoma tornadoes had extraordinary lead times, most tornadoes have a five minute or less lead time when the path is reasonably certain. I wouldn't want to see several thousand, or even several hundred people, leaving their homes and attempting to get to a public shelter with a five minute lead time.
12Z GFS is Dramatically weaker with scatterd T-Storms over the GOM and no real low pressure system.. Mostly due to shear and dry midlevel air over most of the GOM after Tuesday.
Quoting daddyjames:



Did you read the last sentence? Hey, we warned you - and that is all the responsibility that public officials feel is necessary to the general public.

Their philosophy is: "You are on your own." Really.


Quoting Chicklit:

What about public shelters?
I cannot believe they are being shut down because officials say they give a false sense of security or encourage people to drive to a safe area when they are are better off staying home.
What the heck is going on in Oklahoma?


Oklahoma is - perhaps quietly, the most "conservative" state in the nation. Very much a "limited government" attitude. Not sure if this really a reflection of the general public, because I am sure that the reason the vote to close the public shelters was not effectively communicated to the people in MidWest City in January 2013 was because the general public would have reacted in outrage.
I don't understand the purpose of government in the US. It's not to collect revenue for the king. It doesn't seem to be to collect revenue for the welfare of the people. What IS it for?

[constantly amazed at government decisions that put masses of the population at greater risk when lesser risk is not only possible, but feasible...]
Quoting scottsvb:
12Z GFS is Dramatically weaker with scatterd T-Storms over the GOM and no real low pressure system.. Mostly due to shear and dry midlevel air over most of the GOM after Tuesday.


Poor model consistency. Can't seem to figure out if it wants to develop it or not.
They always had such great video.



Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS
171 hours


Nada..tropical moisture heading for florida which is a good bet.
Quoting sar2401:

There is some logic to this. Community shelters in rural areas, especially areas with a high proportion of mobile homes, makes sense. Shelters in suburban or urban areas only encourage people to leave homes that will generally protect them and drive to a shelter. This leaves them at risk of being caught on the road by a tornado, which is much more likely to kill you than sheltering in the best place you can find in even a marginally well built single story structure. There's also the issue of lead time. Although several of the Oklahoma tornadoes had extraordinary lead times, most tornadoes have a five minute or less lead time when the path is reasonably certain. I wouldn't want to see several thousand, or even several hundred people, leaving their homes and attempting to get to a public shelter with a five minute lead time.
There has to be a middle ground between leaving your house to get to a public shelter and getting off the interstate to get to a public shelter. Sounds like some informational training needs to be done. It seems ridiculous to throw the baby out because you can't figure out how to drain the bathtub. Sometimes I think we are too quick to assume things have to be black or white. There are lovely shades of grey [and brown] out there...
Quoting BahaHurican:
When I read about this, I thought of the toreadors... they are very, very skilled, very knowledgeable, very trained, very quick.

But every now and then, the bull wins.

I also remembered the young chaser who was killed in the accident with the drunkard driving the wrong way down the highway last year [forgive me, I don't recall his name]. If you are a tornado chaser and you have to die on the road, I'd bet any one of them would choose to be chasing when it happens....

RIP.


That was Andy Gabrielson that was killed on his way home from chasing.

Discovery Dedicates Tonight's Oklahoma Tornado Documentary to Storm Chasers Killed on Friday
Good afternoon!!!,just checking all the latest Models runs it seems to me that South Florida must be out of the woods?,all the forecasted rain amounts 20"+ for our area here in Miami maybe will not materialize?,it seems like the low pressure is moving more North? (according to the latest CMC & CFS Models),the last report I read yesterday from the NWS said that the low was going to enter around Naples in the West Coast,but this new models runs shows the low entering around the Florida big bend.
We probably need our fellow bloger HYDRUS to post a new future rain amount map for South Florida.
Any comments about my thoughts? I have a very busy week ahead and will like to know if we will get all the previous forecasted rain amounts here in South Florida to plan ahead of time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe it. Tim, Paul, and Carl? They were always so cautious, so hesitant to get anywhere near a regular tornado, much less a rain-wrapped tornado.
Yeah, Tim and his crew would get in arguments on Storm Chasers about getting closer to tornado or not. Other chasers chasing with him thought Tim was very stubborn about the safety and thought the tornadoes would've got a better chance of running over probes if Tim wasn't so cautious. I was shocked that he and 2 others was killed as he's usually a distance from tornadoes especially the violent ones. Maybe he got caught in traffic jam or tornado changed direction on them or a satellite tornado got them. Again, was trying to say Tim was a very cautious person. May he rest in peace.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Good afternoon!!!,just checking all the latest Models runs it seems to me that South Florida must be out of the woods?,all the forecasted rain amounts 20"+ for our area here in Miami maybe will not materialize?,it seems like the low pressure is moving more North? (according to the latest CMC & CFS Models),the last report I read yesterday from the NWS said that the low was going to enter around Naples in the West Coast,but this new models runs shows the low entering around the Florida big bend.
We probably need our fellow bloger HYDRUS to post a new future rain amount map for South Florida.
Any comments about my thoughts? I have a very busy week ahead and will like to know if we will get all the previous forecasted rain amounts here in South Florida to plan ahead of time.




Quoting sar2401:

There is some logic to this. Community shelters in rural areas, especially areas with a high proportion of mobile homes, makes sense. Shelters in suburban or urban areas only encourage people to leave homes that will generally protect them and drive to a shelter. This leaves them at risk of being caught on the road by a tornado, which is much more likely to kill you than sheltering in the best place you can find in even a marginally well built single story structure. There's also the issue of lead time. Although several of the Oklahoma tornadoes had extraordinary lead times, most tornadoes have a five minute or less lead time when the path is reasonably certain. I wouldn't want to see several thousand, or even several hundred people, leaving their homes and attempting to get to a public shelter with a five minute lead time.


Yeah, but much has been made about "increased security" for schools - in case of a deranged person with a gun. But the reality is, at least in certain areas of OK, your more likely to be killed by a tornado at the school.

And there is a divide between folks that live in "cities" vs. those that live in the surrounding county. Remember, most counties here have only a single "city" that provides the vast majority of the educational facilities for the county:

School security or tornado shelters? Commissioner sees a city/county divide (poll)
652. 7544
91L today peeps ?
Woo finally rain! light rain right now, and it looks like it is supposed to get worse, according to other states.




UPDATES:

12:31 p.m. EDT Sunday: Strong thunderstorms developing near the far eastern Pennsylvania/New York border and heading toward the communities of Saugerties and Kingston, N.Y.

12:14 p.m. EDT Sunday: Strong thunderstorm winds down trees and wires in West Winfield, N.Y. One tree fell onto a home.

11:57 a.m. EDT Sunday: A thunderstorm with a history of producing damaging winds is headed toward Cooperstown, N.Y.

11:35 a.m. EDT Sunday: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch box has been issued from upstate New York to northern Maine. The box is in effect through 8 p.m. EDT.
Death toll from Friday's tornadoes in Oklahoma increases to 10
I shall be going to bed with a very heavy heart, shock and saddened from the news 3 great leaders in the field of Tornado science have been taken from this world.

Goodnight all. Stay well, Stay safe.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Which tells us that if even over-cautious, well-prepared, highly-experienced professionals can nevertheless find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time, what chance do thrill-seeking, inexperienced, ill-prepared, and careless amateur chasers have?

(Of course, it also tells us--again--just how stupid is the advice to "get in your car and drive away from it!" But we already know that.)

Indeed. I'm a "trained" advanced storm spotter for the NWS. I was tracking a tornado on the ground when the funnel got rain wrapped and I lost sight of the direction of travel. I was in a way rural area, and the radar also lost the signature. I was parked next to a barn relaying in information about the tornado. All of a sudden, my cell phone, ham radio, and GPS would not work, as in receive or transmit. That was enough for me. I turned around and, with all deliberate speed, drove away on the one route I was reasonably certain the tornado wouldn't take. When I got back in the same area about 30 minutes later, the barn I was parked next to was gone...as in, there was only some concrete foundation left.

I'm now a net controller and "spot" storms on radar and handle the radio traffic from the field. I'm more than happy to leave those kinds of life-altering experiences to people with a much higher risk tolerance than me.
Storm chasers honoring Tim Samaras in North Dakota...

Link
0.0


... Excessive heat warning remains in effect from 10 am this
morning to 8 PM MST this evening...

An excessive heat warning remains in effect from 10 am this
morning to 8 PM MST this evening.

* Affected area... south-central Arizona... including the Phoenix
area.

* Temperature... highs around 108 to 110 degrees.

* Impacts... this is the first prolonged period of hot temperatures
this year. Take the necessary precautions to protect yourself from
the heat.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible... reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water. If you wear a wide-brimmed
hat... your head and body will be much cooler.

To reduce risk during outdoor work... the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency... call 9 1 1.

Quoting AussieStorm:
I shall be going to bed with a very heavy heart, shock and saddened from the news 3 great leaders in the field of Tornado science have been taken from this world.

Goodnight all. Stay well, Stay safe.

Good night, Aussie. A very sad couple of days for many people. Sleep well.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Poor model consistency. Can't seem to figure out if it wants to develop it or not.


Yeah,...why I been saying for everyone to wait till today and really tonight 0Z run to see if it comes back some. We still have the 12Z Euro coming out in 2hrs or so. But again, it's why I always say... anything over 5 days out, throw out...even really after 3 days but 5 is a decent #


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting sar2401:

Indeed. I'm a "trained" advanced storm spotter for the NWS. I was tracking a tornado on the ground when the funnel got rain wrapped and I lost sight of the direction of travel. I was in a way rural area, and the radar also lost the signature. I was parked next to a barn relaying in information about the tornado. All of a sudden, my cell phone, ham radio, and GPS would not work, as in receive or transmit. That was enough for me. I turned around and, with all deliberate speed, drove away on the one route I was reasonably certain the tornado wouldn't take. When I got back in the same area about 30 minutes later, the barn I was parked next to was gone...as in, there was only some concrete foundation left.

I'm now a net controller and "spot" storms on radar and handle the radio traffic from the field. I'm more than happy to leave those kinds of life-altering experiences to people with a much higher risk tolerance than me.
Indeed. That kind of high risk pursuit is not for everyone. We can admire those who are skilled without emulating them.
latest rainfall totals from the gfs model 12z

Oh before I go. Only 150 days till the end of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season.

Goodnight
I'm out for now... want to make a couple runs while the rain is holding up.
Quoting 7544:
91L today peeps ?

How much do you wanna bet? :-)
TWC HURRICANE PREDICTIONS:

16 named, 9 hurricanes, 5 major.

95W

00z european rain totals..

Quoting AussieStorm:




Thank you AussieStorm for the map.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Storm chasers honoring Tim Samaras in North Dakota...

Link

That's nice. As even bigger honor, maybe the chaser "community" can make a commitment to get off the road and seek shelter instead of trying to get the "Greatest Tornado Video Ever". Three fatalites and several near misses in one day is, I would hope, enough for some of these chasers to reevaluate their priorities.
Quoting Torito:


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.





your posting info that we all ready no your a little late
Quoting hurricane23:
latest rainfall totals from the gfs model 12z

Thank you hydrus for the map.
Quoting BahaHurican:
What percentage of fatalities were on the road? in vehicles?

This business with people getting in cars to run from storms seems to me like a disaster waiting to happen. [still remembering what happened w/ Rita evac in TX]

I also don't understand refusing motorists on a highway a place inside your business if you have a sturdy building. If your worry is insurance etc [aka money] change your laws to say that if a person seeking shelter in a public place chooses to shelter in that place [rather than being sent there by officials] the owner of the place is not liable for their injuries.



There are laws on the books exempting businesses from liability:

Under state law, business operators who offer a safe harbor from severe weather are protected from the legal liability of damages incurred to guests. On the other hand, there are no state laws that specifically state that a merchant can’t lock his doors and turn away those seeking shelter, said Gerald L. Hilsher, an attorney at McAfee & Taft law firm.

No promise of protection: Storm stirs up confusion over shelter policies at stores

There should be laws preventing people from "charging" for access, as the hotel did in the May 20th, Moore Tornado (see post 595)

Read more: http://journalrecord.com/2013/05/31/no-promise-of- protection-storm-stirs-up-confusion-over-shelter-p olicies-at-stores-general-news/#ixzz2V4xfy1Az
Read more: http://journalrecord.com/2013/05/31/no-promise-of- protection-storm-stirs-up-confusion-over-shelter-p olicies-at-stores-general-news/#ixzz2V4x8pZep
new update at 2pm Tropical Weather Outlook!
678. SuzK
Quoting daddyjames:


Did you read the last sentence? Hey, we warned you - and that is all the responsibility that public officials feel is necessary to the general public in the larger metropolitan areas of OK.

Their philosophy is: "You are on your own." Really.


And why should it be otherwise? Every person is responsible for their own safety. If the municipality can't/won't get involved in making shelters, that's the way it is. We expect the government to do everything for us. What happened to personal responsibility? There are plenty of places that are safer.
Quoting hurricane23:
00z european rain totals..


Nope, nope, nope. That model shows my house should get 3-3.5" of rain over the next 10 days. If that happens, I'll eat my shoe. All the rain will stay out over the Gulf. It sure ain't coming to Eufuala, Alabama. (I'm where that big bulge in SE AL is on the Georgia/AL border.)


I believe that circle in the atlantic is a wave that may become a cyclone.
Quoting 7544:
91L today peeps ?
Forget 91L I want to see TS Andrea in the Gulf.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Forget 91L I want to see TS Andrea in the Gulf.


its only a matter of time... :D
Quoting Torito:


I believe that circle in the atlantic is a wave that may become a cyclone.
I noticed in the TAFB's fancy new gridded forecast that they expect that Twave to survive into the Car, possibly carrying some rain with it...
I believe the area of showers and storm around the Florida keys are the leading edge of the slug of moisture the models have been showing lifting north over Florida...
Here is an article from CWG on why storm chasing tornado's and fleeing from them in a car is a bad idea.


Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't understand the purpose of government in the US. It's not to collect revenue for the king. It doesn't seem to be to collect revenue for the welfare of the people. What IS it for?

[constantly amazed at government decisions that put masses of the population at greater risk when lesser risk is not only possible, but feasible...]


Ever watch Little Shop of Horrors? ;)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I noticed in the TAFB's fancy new gridded forecast that they expect that Twave to survive into the Car, possibly carrying some rain with it...


I hope it becomes barry, and the low from barbara becomes andrea.
notting yet!!
One of the most respected and famous storm chasers of all time, Tim Samaras, passed away recently after being sucked up into a massive tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013. It really shows me that you need to give A LOT of respect to Mother Nature, because this man was one of the safest storm chasers out in the field. It's very emotional to me in that he was such a valued member in the community of the field that I want to study; Meteorology. Hopefully I can make a contribution to the research of tornadoes and make progress in the results, which will eventually save the lives of many people in the path of these monsters.
1:08 p.m. EDT Sunday: One severe thunderstorm is on track to pass just north of Rutland, Vt., in about 40 minutes with another thunderstorm on its heels to then threaten the city.
12 z CMC

Quoting AussieStorm:

I think but not 100% sure it was due to the Tornado suddenly changing direction like what happened to TWC crew.
Well, that--plus perhaps intentionally driving as close as possible to the northeast side of the tornado, gambling that it won't decide to move in that direction despite the fact that almost every tornado does...
This is for Doc M who mentioned on TWC today using drones for tornado research.
Oklahoma State University working on storm drones.

"The drones could be operating in roughly five years, designers estimate. But there are limitations on immediately using the technology, including current Federal Aviation Administration rules that mandate where and how drones can be safely launched in U.S. air space. The agency's regulations also require operators of such machines to physically see the aircraft at all times, limiting the range to a mile or two (1.6 to 3.2 kilometers)."


RIP to the chasers and all who perished in the tornadoes and flooding in Oklahoma and Missouri May 31, thirteen total at last count, including three in Missouri flooding. It is unclear how many of the ten confirmed dead in Oklahoma perished in OK from tornadoes or floods, or both, as one confirmed death reported by The Oklahoman, OKC newspaper, happened when a family took shelter in a ditch and were swept away by flood water.
Quoting SuzK:


And why should it be otherwise? Every person is responsible for their own safety. If the municipality can't/won't get involved in making shelters, that's the way it is. We expect the government to do everything for us. What happened to personal responsibility? There are plenty of places that are safer.


We are government . . . we tend to forget that.

Having a bunch of people in office, on one hand, advocating that "We are America, and anything we set our minds to accomplish we can." Then on the other: "We cannot provide for your safety" because we don't have the resources? The two are contradictory.

Why didn't the MidWest City Commission not allow the people to decide: by putting the choice to close public tornado shelters up for referendum? Then the people of the city would have had the opportunity to decide.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, that--plus intentionally driving as close as possible to the northeast side of the tornado, gambling that it won't decide to move in that direction despite the fact that almost every tornado does...
This was the last outbreak, right? the one with the tracks shown above? It seems the tornado tracks had some anomalous moves, running from NW to SE.

Though in looking at the map above it does seem the one that did the damage to pple in cars [the El Reno one] was indeed making jumps to the NE..
Quoting daddyjames:


Yeah, but much has been made about "increased security" for schools - in case of a deranged person with a gun. But the reality is, at least in certain areas of OK, your more likely to be killed by a tornado at the school.

And there is a divide between folks that live in "cities" vs. those that live in the surrounding county. Remember, most counties here have only a single "city" that provides the vast majority of the educational facilities for the county:

School security or tornado shelters? Commissioner sees a city/county divide (poll)

Read up on FEMA P-361 safe room requirements. Any public facility that wants federal grant money to build a "safe room" must comply with the FEMA standards. The engineering and construction requirements of this standard are so high and, some engineers believe, so excessive, that many school districts can't come up with the matching funds to construct or retrofit a safe room. A room or shelter built to P-361 standards is bomb-proof, no doubt about it, but the goal should not be to protect people from the most unlikely event, a direct hit from an EF-4 or above tornado. The goal should be to make sure a structure is reinforced to make collapse less likely and to be reasonably resistant to debris penetration. FEMA writes standards so that they can't be criticized that the results weren't stong enough in every type of scenario. Cost is a secondary consideration. Some states have their own standards, and new school construction is done to meet these still strict but affordable standards. Oklahoma needs to look at Kansas, for example, about how to make progress at a state level, and stop waiting for the FEMA gravy train to pull into town.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, that--plus intentionally driving as close as possible to the northeast side of the tornado, gambling that it won't decide to move in that direction despite the fact that almost every tornado does...

...in order to gather information that may have made a big difference of what we know/understand about these storms. He didn't get close to the tornado just for the thrill of it, anybody that knew him would know that.
Quoting stormchaser19:
12 z CMC

The CMC model is the only consistent model. I will admit the Canadian model does get it right most of the times in terms of development, but has an awful track and intensity record. The latest GFS did a complete 180 and no longer shows development, so now we await the Euro.
I wanted everyone on here to see this Vertical Shear go down fast on june 1 2013
watch for the next 91L.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The CMC model is the only consistent model. I will admit the Canadian model does get it right most of the times in terms of development, but has an awful track and intensity record. The latest GFS did a complete 180 and no longer shows development, so now we await the Euro.


The people that knows about how the reliable models works....This year, CMC implement major upgrade... will be interesting to see how it behaves this year

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ill check that for you...

---------'-

BAHA... I've been waiting for your numbers fot a while...thanks.
You are the 113th.


Hey Max, usally a lrker but more active during the season-mostly with questions. ANYWAY put me down for
18-9-4. I think we will be fairly active this year and the MDR will be ripe for multiple development once the shear slacks off IMO.
706. VR46L
GOES-East 4 km IR4 Floater 1 Imagery from RAMMD

loop embedded



My video today is going to not be up for another hour or two, having problems with converting it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting BahaHurican:
Check dis out...

http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/?zoom=3& lat= 10.91198&lon=-68.37891&layers=00BFTFTTTTT ion=7&e lement=9&mxmz=true&barbs=true

I wonder what the source is for some of those numbers? The probability of precipitation view is showing a 58%(!) POP near me in Alabama. I'm apparently in the 42% non-POP section. That seems like an amazingly precise figure. I'm also on a 6mbs connection and that thing takes forever to load. I left them some comments. :-)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROW
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
From the previous blog entry:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...in order to gather information that may have made a big difference of what we know/understand about these storms. He didn't get close to the tornado just for the thrill of it, anybody that knew him would know that.
I'm not saying that he did. And the loss of any life is obviously tragic and sad. But Samaras--and, apparently, about a hundred other chasers--did intentionally place themselves in very close proximity to the approaching northeast quadrant of a massive, rain-wrapped, low-level mesocyclone that already had a history of producing funnels and behaving erratically. I am not in any way saying that Samaras deserved what happened to him. I'm only saying that what happened is not surprising--and, as Dr. Masters has said, it's surprising it hasn't already happened more often.
Quoting sar2401:

Read up on FEMA P-361 safe room requirements. Any public facility that wants federal grant money to build a "safe room" must comply with the FEMA standards. . . . Oklahoma needs to look at Kansas, for example, about how to make progress at a state level, and stop waiting for the FEMA gravy train to pull into town.


That is exactly my point. The state and federal government officials are very vocal and public about resisting any "Federal" oversight, but have not provided any relief whatsoever.

Meanwhile, more reasonable local leaders, including Moore, have been applying and receiving federal FEMA grants to construct "safe rooms" at newly constructed or refurbished schools.

Many local region governments have passed bond initiatives to pay for public shelters and provide safe rooms for students.

I think the Moore Emergency Manager's comment that "You are on your own", and the actions of the MidWest City Commission to be irresponsible of public officials acting in the interest of the people they represent/manage as irresponsible and "horse hockey" - to borrow my favorite phrase from M.A.S.H.

Ping pong-sized hail just slammed Queensbury, NY
Quoting stormchaser19:


The people that knows about how the reliable models works....This year, CMC implement major upgrade... will be interesting to see how it behaves this year

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.


CMC seems to be "tuned" for Canada. Anomaly correlation for the Northern Hemisphere (20N-80N) sea level pressure is good:




In the tropics (20S-20N) not so good:

The NWS Norman writeup, "The central Oklahoma tornadoes and flash flooding May 31, 2013 includes photos and radar loops, tracks and preliminary ratings.



An FYI for those not familiar with the territory:

Live TV coverage from chasers on the scene reported (at least some of the) chaser vehicles impacted Near I 40 and hwy 81, 81 being the only way south where you can cross the Canadian River for miles (west to east) in either direction. Hwy 81 is pretty much on a N-S line from El Reno to Minco.

This tornado formed SW of El Reno and just north of the River. If chasers were under or near the storm when it formed, and videos seem to show this, looks like some at least drove east to the only possible road where they could to get south and away. Meanwhile, the east-moving cell turned SE, then NE right about at the escape route, as shown in the video.

All I have to say.
bfout
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't believe it. Tim, Paul, and Carl? They were always so cautious, so hesitant to get anywhere near a regular tornado, much less a rain-wrapped tornado.


I know I couldn't believe it when I found out last night, it made me feel sick...