WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Barbara Nearing Mexico at Hurricane Strength; Midwest Tornado Outbreak Today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:02 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

Hurricane warnings are flying for the Pacific coast of Mexico, where Tropical Storm Barbara is rapidly intensifying as it makes landfall. Barbara should be ashore by 2 pm EDT (11 am PDT), and is expected to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before landfall. Barbara formed on Tuesday night (May 28), an unusually early date for the formation of the Eastern Pacific's second storm of the year. The record earliest second storm of the year occurred just last year, on May 21 (Tropical Storm Bud.) The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm (Boris) formed on May 29. Reliable records of Eastern Pacific hurricanes go back to 1949. Barbara wasted no time getting organized, and is gathering strength in impressive fashion as it nears landfall in Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area. The storm's main threat is very heavy rains of up to a foot, which will be capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides over the next 2 - 3 days. However, wind damage and the expected 3 - 5 foot storm surge are also a concern, since the area of the coast it is hitting, though not heavily populated, has very little hurricane experience. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane has ever hit the Bay of Tehuantepec--Category 1 Hurricane Rick of 1997. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that Barbara has built a partial eyewall, and the storm has already spread heavy rains ashore along portions of the Mexican coast. Satellite loops show that Barbara is a relatively small storm, with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Radar image of Barbara from Puerto Angel, Mexico, taken at 9:30 am EDT (6:30 am PDT) May 29, 2013. Image credit: CONAGUA.

May tropical storm landfalls are rare in the Eastern Pacific
Only eight named storms that formed in May have hit land in the Eastern Pacific since accurate hurricane records began in 1949--an average of one storm every eight years, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website. Just one of these May storms made landfall as a hurricane--Category 1 Hurricane Agatha of 1971, which hit Mexico west of Acapulco. But one of the deadliest and most destructive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones of all-time was a May storm that never reached hurricane strength--Tropical Storm Agatha of May 29, 2010, which had top winds of only 45 mph at landfall. Agatha dissipated just one day after making landfall, but its remnants lingered over Central America for six days, dumping torrential rains that triggered deadly flash floods and landslides; Mazatenango, Guatemala, reported 22.27 inches of rain from May 25 - 30, 2010. At least 190 people died, mostly in Guatemala, making Agatha the 7th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in history. Agatha's $1.2 billion in damage made it the 6th most expensive Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record. Fortunately, Barbara is hitting a region of the coast that is relatively sparsely populated compared to where Agatha hit, and Barbara is not likely to cause anywhere close to the devastation that Agatha wrought.


Figure 2. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 66 feet (20 m) across and 100 ft (30 m) deep opened up on May 29, 2010 in Guatemala City after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. The sinkhole collapsed suddenly, taking a three-story house that was used as factory, claiming fifteen lives. The sinkhole formed because Guatemala City is built upon volcanic pumice deposits, which are unconsolidated and of low density, allowing easy erosion. According to Sam Bonis, a geologist at Dartmouth College, because of lax city zoning regulations and building codes, leaking pipes went unfixed long enough to create the conditions necessary for this hole to form (it technically wasn't a sinkhole, since sinkholes form in limestone rock.) How do you patch something like this?

Tropical cyclone development unlikely in the Atlantic during the coming seven days
Barbara is expected to push northwards and cross into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday, but the storm is small enough and moving slowly enough that Barbara will likely dissipate before reaching the Gulf. If the storm were able to maintain at least tropical depression status and cross into the Gulf, it would keep the name Barbara. If Barbara were to dissipate before reaching the Gulf, then regenerate into a tropical storm in the Gulf, it would be named Andrea. However, conditions do not favor redevelopment of Barbara's remnants into an Atlantic tropical depression, since wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days.

AP will be doing a hurricane twitter chat on Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT: #APStormChat

The National Hurricane Center is doing a hurricane chat on Thursday at 2 pm EDT: #HurriChat


Figure 3. Large tornado on the ground near Corning, Kansas, at 4:32 CDT May 28, 2013. Image credit: Ron Heinen, via twitter.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of the tornado that hit Corning, Kansas at 4:32 pm CDT May 28, 2013.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 29, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Tuesday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging eighteen preliminary tornado reports, with twisters touching down in Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. No injuries were reported from these tornadoes, but damage was reported near Corning, Kansas, and Fenton, Michigan. The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Wednesday), with the possibility of a significant tornado outbreak over much of Oklahoma and Kansas, plus portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters
Overhead Clouds at Sunset
Overhead Clouds at Sunset

Hurricane Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Skyepony:


This I could see this happening, more so than a regeneration or reprise.

it may but the chances look kinda low at this time
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Add:
YES....YES....YES------->Close to CAYMANS.....YES
I hate that movie. That's the only scene that's any good.
Barbara has about an hour or two longer to hold before reemerging. Still spinning away. Link
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



...one in every crowd! ;)
Hey, mlc.
:)

Just waitin for the 0100 convective outlook. Why don't you play some music?
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Add:
YES....YES....YES------->Close to CAYMANS.....YES

+1000
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS
BARBARA WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 93.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
Popcorn convection firing close to Barbara's center. By golly she might've did what said couldn't be done! Link
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hey, mlc.
:)

Just waitin for the 0100 convective outlook. Why don't you play some music?


My Youtube is broken. :(

About to find some shuteye, large morning ahead. Just lurking 'til I saw your quick quip! :)
new lat&long
17.5N 93.9W
moving N
down to 45mph
Music. Nevermind. I see a Tornado Warning out of Tulsa...

1235 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1232 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF GORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

Wedding in Cherokee County

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

+1000

not funny at all

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Popcorn convection firing close to Barbara's center. By golly she might've did what said couldn't be done! Link

I see it thou I wonder how long it gonna last
Well, g'nite, mlc.
Good to see you.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Well, g'nite, mlc.
Good to see you.


:) Have a good sleep. Stay safe out there!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Popcorn convection firing close to Barbara's center. By golly she might've did what said couldn't be done! Link

and its still W of the COC
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not funny at all


I see it thou I wonder how long it gonna last

She's experienced the worst of her traverse across isthmus. She's approaching water again and also Duirnal Maximum.
as soon as Barbara step off into BOC its gonna hit between 20-50kt of shear thats if Barbara makes it into the BOC
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


:) Have a good sleep. Stay safe out there!
Thank you.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

She's experienced the worst of her traverse across isthmus. She's approaching water again and also Duirnal Maximum.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
as soon as Barbara step off into BOC its gonna hit between 20-50kt of shear thats if Barbara makes it into the BOC

Plus she is still on land she don't want land
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
as soon as Barbara step off into BOC its gonna hit between 20-50kt of shear thats if Barbara makes it into the BOC

As soon as it emerges as a tropical cyclone in the bay of Campeche the NHC will start issuing advisories on Barbara from the Atlantic side. It's just the last crucial hours that will determine if we get our first storm or not.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

As soon as it emerges as a tropical cyclone in the bay of Campeche the NHC will start issuing advisories on Barbara from the Atlantic side. It's just the last crucial hours that will determine if we get our first storm or not.

IF is a very big key here
Be back in 6 hours to see how things turned out.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Be back in 6 hours to see how things turned out.

I'll be here waiting
NHC kicks Barbara in the But and puts the energy in a surface trof in extreme W Gulf of Honduras/Belize Coast and shifts it E off the Coast

24


48


72
Click for full text and graphics 0100 cdt Day 1 convective outlook valid after 7 am cdt

... UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAY...GEOMETRY
OF FLOW RELATED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL RENDER
DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO
DRYLINE...INDICATING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORM CHARACTER
AND SUPERCELL MODE.

HOWEVER...SOME CAVEATS ARE EVIDENT THAT MAKE THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL
TO INTRODUCE MDT-RISK PROBABILITIES YET...AND WHICH ALSO CAST GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ON SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N OVER MO VALLEY..NRN PLAINS
AND CORN BELT. THESE INCLUDE...

... AS SOME OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES GET BETTER RESOLVED TODAY...NARROW
AREA OF SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO AND/OR LARGER-HAIL PROBABILITIES MAY
BECOME NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OK AND KS.

..EDWARDS/BUNTING.. 05/30/2013

Some of you who scratch your heads over your impressions of a "bust" day, to learn more about severe might you might want to decipher the SPC discussions on the outlooks, the watches and the MCDs. Roger Edwards discussions are head-scratchers sometimes but you can learn from them - if you truly want to learn.

(SPC link added)
ok surface obs that I can easliy find around Barbara's LLCOC the winds are no stronger than 30mph
this may or may not change as it moves over water
looking at satellite looks like barbara trying to for an eye again lol
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
8:30 AM IST May 30 2013
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over coastal West Bengal and neighborhood moved westward and now lays near 22.3N 87.5E, about 30 km southeast of Midnapore, West Bengal.

The system is likely to move west northwestward and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during the next 24 hours.
Some models starting to pick up on two systems in the Atlantic 144 hours out (Wednesday).

*here*

The First forming south of Florida and moving up the east coast as a weak Tropical Depression or Invest, probably wont strengthen much if that's the case.

The second one is much more interesting, Shows a depression forming in the Gulf from by Tuesday and possible Storm by Wednesday night, last few frames are showing some potentially quick intensification of this system. Which is right in line with favorable conditions forming across the Atlantic in that time frame.

I wouldn't hold my breath on either of these systems just yet though.
Seems to still have some twist ti it on the left side,the rainband anyway.
Some of you who scratch your heads over your impressions of a "bust" day, to learn more about severe might you might want to decipher the SPC discussions on the outlooks, the watches and the MCDs. Roger Edwards discussions are head-scratchers sometimes but you can learn from them - if you truly want to learn.

(SPC link added)

Speaking of the "bust" yesterday, given this 1:23 AM forecast for the May 15-17th outbreak this year, what are the odds that those horse barns would be at the center of not just the path, but of the track, also?

That's arguably like a TORCON of 100. It means danger on a scale that is rarely seen, and in a year of almost nothing else.

Someone please tell me, what are the statistics for 1% storms in a slow year vs a busy one? How rare is it, to see such violence in a slow year?











1035. MahFL
Barb seems to be blowing up again as she re-enters warm water.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 93.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.

DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
although at the last minute Barbara shot some convection I don't think this will last plus it already dying and also LLCOC is becoming weaker and starting to defuse Barb is just sliding in to the BOC to fall in her grave
I believe the flair up of convection was just because it had felt the shear to its N and W
Barbara is about to enter into the Bay of Campeche with a new burst of convection.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
although at the last minute Barbara shot some convection I don't think this will last plus it already dying and also LLCOC is becoming weaker and starting to defuse Barb is just sliding in to the BOC to fall in her grave
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
although at the last minute Barbara shot some convection I don't think this will last plus it already dying and also LLCOC is becoming weaker and starting to defuse Barb is just sliding in to the BOC to fall in her grave
Well thats what all the weather channels have been saying will happen since yesterday so you heard right
91E is not looking good as convection decreases.

Quoting anotherwrongyear:
Well thats what all the weather channels have been saying will happen since yesterday so you heard right

no I told the weather channels to say that
Quoting Civicane49:
Barbara is about to enter into the Bay of Campeche with a new burst of convection.


nothing much left of it that new burst is dissipating and the circulation is also starting to fade
"So, we may have Barbara in the Atlantic before Andrea." http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7366
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

NHC is saying if Barbara remains a tropical cyclone, then it would still be Barbara as it enters the gulf. That is yet to be known, though. Forecasts say that the shear will be too high and Barbara will be an open wave soon but who knows. It would be cool to see a crossover storm in the Atlantic region without changing its name.
Ok, question. Why post a period (for example jamesrainier)? I see this often - what is it supposed to convey?
burst of convection is dissipating hardly much LLCOC left still have a stronger mid level spin though that is also becoming weak Barbara soon gone
burst of convection over very warm water boc barbara hanging on
Quoting jamesrainier:
"So, we may have Barbara in the Atlantic before Andrea." http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7366

maybe maybe not next advisory look like it could be the last
Quoting daddyjames:
Ok, question. Why post a period (for example jamesrainier)? I see this often - what is it supposed to convey?


A person might find an error with their post, or see that the person right before them posted the same thing. They might put a dot to signify their post was deleted, as opposed to not displaying properly. I got the idea from other people doing it here.
Quoting jamesrainier:


A person might find an error with their post, or see that the person right before them posted the same thing. They might put a dot to signify their post was deleted, as opposed to not displaying properly. I got the idea from other people doing it here.


Thanks! I've seen it and have always wondered . . .
Good morning. 6z GFS 216-228 hours:





Barbara had a rough night, obviously, but it could've gone worse. Nice little burst of convection this morning.

Conditions might not be favorable for strengthening of Barbara in the BOC like the doc said, but if Barbara can barely survive the cross, we'd at least have our first depression.
1057. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

NHC is saying if Barbara remains a tropical cyclone, then it would still be Barbara as it enters the gulf. That is yet to be known, though. Forecasts say that the shear will be too high and Barbara will be an open wave soon but who knows. It would be cool to see a crossover storm in the Atlantic region without changing its name.


For the sake of the symmetry of the naming system, I hope she doesn't survive to be honest.
Quoting SLU:


For the sake of the symmetry of the naming system, I hope she doesn't survive to be honest.


Ah, but the naming system is for designating storms that form in each basin. If Barbara retains tropical characteristics, it maintains continuity for the actual weather system.

Plus, it eliminates confusion regarding reporting on the system and subsequently analyzing the data for the system. If a tropical system travels into an adjacent basin, and the name is changed, imagine the confusion regarding updates/reporting to the general public. And, maintaining the data over time.

Edit: So, the symmetry of the naming system is actually preserved by not renaming the system if barbara survives.

Edit2: Sorry for the edits, too early for me, off to get more coffee.
Morning all.
Quoting Civicane49:
Barbara is about to enter into the Bay of Campeche with a new burst of convection.

I was looking at the loops just before bed last night and thinking Barbara would be in the water fairly early this morning. It also seemed to me that it was pulling storm cells in to it from the BoH side of the Yucatan. I'm going to be quite interested to see how this little system holds up against the adverse conditions in the Gulf....
If Barbara does survive, am I correct in thinking we would be seeing a track towards the central TX coast?
1061. Torito
Barbara looks somewhat organized still, but it took a hit last night. i think it has a 30% chance of regeneration once it goes into the carribbean, up to a max of 50mph winds.
1062. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Looks like Barbara has made it to the GOM/BOC..
It's a small system that looks to bounce around a couple of days..
She may flatten out and cover more area..
But in the end I believe wind shear will be too much for her..
JMO..

77 degrees here with 84%rh and dew at 72..
Mostly cloudy with winds 17 ENE..
Rip Current Advisory..
Red Flags flying..
Surf at the beach looks choppy to rough..

1064. Torito
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting BahaHurican:
If Barbara does survive, am I correct in thinking we would be seeing a track towards the central TX coast?

It would be more of the central/southern Mexican coast. If it goes too far north it gets blasted by shear and is carried to away from the western gulf.

Quoting Torito:
Barbara looks somewhat organized still, but it took a hit last night. i think it has a 30% chance of regeneration once it goes into the carribbean.

I hope you mean GOM/BOC.
1066. Torito
Quoting BahaHurican:
If Barbara does survive, am I correct in thinking we would be seeing a track towards the central TX coast?


Model data: IGNORE BAMM, as it has been wrong for the entire forcast so far..



1067. Torito
Barbara still has a chance, look at the bold writing.

BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.

HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.


DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.


1068. Torito
Quoting wxchaser97:

It would be more of the central/southern Mexican coast. If it goes too far north it gets blasted by shear and is carried to away from the western gulf.


I hope you mean GOM/BOC.


Yea you know what i mean, i call GOM, anything SW of FL the carribbean, force of habit. i blame my earth science teacher.
1069. Torito
Barbara still maintaining tropical characteristics :D

Quoting Torito:


Yea you know what i mean, i call GOM, anything SW of FL the carribbean, force of habit. i blame my earth science teacher.

No I don't know what you mean. The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean sea are pretty much two separate entities. They are connected at the Yucatan strait(don't know if that's what it's called), but the names are definitely not interchangeable.
1071. SLU
Quoting daddyjames:


Ah, but the naming system is for designating storms that form in each basin. If Barbara retains tropical characteristics, it maintains continuity for the actual weather system.

Plus, it eliminates confusion regarding reporting on the system and subsequently analyzing the data for the system. If a tropical system travels into an adjacent basin, and the name is changed, imagine the confusion regarding updates/reporting to the general public. And, maintaining the data over time.

Edit: So, the symmetry of the naming system is actually preserved by not renaming the system if barbara survives.

Edit2: Sorry for the edits, too early for me, off to get more coffee.


Well that's been the case for decades can it didn't seem to pose much of a problem ...
Quoting Torito:
Barbara looks somewhat organized still, but it took a hit last night. i think it has a 30% chance of regeneration once it goes into the carribbean, up to a max of 50mph winds.

Conditions don't look very favorable for strengthening of Barbara, but wether she survives or dissipates and briefly regenerates, at least we'll get our first storm. If it's center holds up, we might get one or two good advisories for her after she emerges into the BOC, I'd say with a max of 35mph.
Quoting Skyepony:
Barbara on MIMIC.


Interesting that her entry/track/exit was exactly over the most narrow stretch of land between the Pacific and BOC
1074. VR46L
Looks like she is nearly in the Gulf with a bit of her left
Good Morning Folks



/02E.BARBARA/ir/geo/1km


Quite interesting depth of convection in the northern area

NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes

1075. SLU
WARNING: For entertainment purposes ONLY.



Barbie is quite the fighter.
Quoting SLU:


Well that's been the case for decades can it didn't seem to pose much of a problem ...


Apparently it did . . .

The ability to track and determine the tropical characteristics of storms has vastly improved over the decades, also. So, why not incorporate this improvement in the artificially created "naming" system? For centuries, storms were not given designated names. So, because of this historical context, should we return to a simple numbering system?
Looks like Barbie will emerge into the GOM healthy. Now the Mexican coastline around Veracruz should be on alert.
06Z GFS. Yikes!
Even though now one cares it is currently 77 degrees outside at my location with muggy and humid conditions..looking for a high around 93 today.Friday it gets worse.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even though now one cares it is currently 77 degrees outside at my location with muggy and humid conditions..looking for a high around 93 today.Friday it gets worse.


Stay cool! By the way I care.
1082. SLU
Quoting daddyjames:


Apparently it did . . .

The ability to track and determine the tropical characteristics of storms has vastly improved over the decades, also. So, why not incorporate this improvement in the artificially created "naming" system? For centuries, storms were not given designated names. So, because of this historical context, should we return to a simple numbering system?


Ok. I just don't like the idea of seeing:

Barbara
Andrea
Barry

as our 1st three names. Just a personal preference.
Liz, I got to hand it to ya. You called it. You held off doubt when everyone else was throwing in the towel with Barbie. Now she looks to be emerging into the BOC still relatively intact.
Canadian Model


Great news for Southern Illinois. The 06Z and 00Z have been showing some prolific rainfall totals. Below is the 06Z:

1086. SLU
Quoting SLU:
WARNING: For entertainment purposes ONLY.





I wonder how much the GOES-13 satellite failure is hampering the models from accurately resolving their forecasts because both the CMC and now the GFS are showing MDR "development" in early June and that's just crazy.
Not bad!
Quoting SLU:


Ok. I just don't like the idea of seeing:

Barbara
Andrea
Barry

as our 1st three names. Just a personal preference.


I understand, but Barbara will always be (if it survives) an EPAC storm that crossed over into the Atlantic basin.

Not sure the NHC agrees that it has survived (as of yet) since they barely mention it in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion just issued for the Atlantic basin.
Barbara's center is now <15 miles from emerging into hostile, but decreasing shear conditions in the Bay of Campeche.
Quoting FutureWx6221:
Barbara's center is now <15 miles from emerging into hostile, but decreasing shear conditions in the Bay of Campeche.

Those maps are usually 3 hours behind current time. But point well taken. She has a rough road ahead.
1092. SLU
Quoting daddyjames:


I understand, but Barbara will always be (if it survives) an EPAC storm that crossed over into the Atlantic basin.

Not sure the NHC agrees that it has survived (as of yet) since they barely mention it in the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion just issued for the Atlantic basin.


Point taken. I like how she choose the area with the least land to traverse to cross over.
Just as a point of interest, the NHC now lists Barbara under North Atlantic in the satellite imagery section of their website.
I'm a happy camper. The last five SIX GFS runs have now been showing in excess of 2" of rain for Southern Illinois. Woo-hoo!!

1096. SLU


Circulation still hanging right on the coast
Floaters for Barbara have shifted from the EPAC to the Atlantic side.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Those maps are usually 3 hours behind current time. But point well taken. She has a rough road ahead.

Good Day everyone. Checking up on Barbara it seems she is still structurely intact. Which is impressive considering not a lot of people though it would survive. However, I notice shear is relaxing over the BOC. The models seem a bit unreliable. We need to monitor this in the coming days. This year has been very unpredictable don't sleep on the power of Mother Nature
1101. Torito
The storm still has a shot at regeneration to up to 50mph before shear kills it if it can enter the GOM at the right place.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Those maps are usually 3 hours behind current time. But point well taken. She has a rough road ahead.

Good Day everyone. Checking up on Barbara it seems she is still structurely intact. Which is impressive considering not a lot of people though it would survive. However, I notice shear is relaxing over the BOC. The models seem a bit unreliable. We need to monitor this in the coming days. This year has been very unpredictable don't sleep on the power of Mother Nature
Just did a blog update on Barbara and 91E.

Have a great Thursday everyone. Only 1 more day until the weekend and 2 until the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season!
1104. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Liz, I got to hand it to ya. You called it. You held off doubt when everyone else was throwing in the towel with Barbie. Now she looks to be emerging into the BOC still relatively intact.


Thank you very much !!

Yeah I kind of got the feeling last week when I noticed that she was to hit the area she did . But I was more throwing it out there as a half opinion but got convinced she could do it . but I didnt think she would have made it across that Quick.

To be honest its not really skill Just watching satellites images and a Gut feeling . I guess ya would call it intuition
Come on Barb, just a little further.

have a good day everyone - I'll be back later to see

(1) if Barbara is still Barbara
(2) if SPC forecasts that I'll be dodging hail or twisters later today.

Cheers.
1107. Torito
Classic example of the uselessness of the models at this time of year, 91E...

I mean really, some of the models arent even connected to the storm itself?!
Latest 12z Best Track mantains Barbara as TD.

EP, 02, 2013053012, , BEST, 0, 183N, 943W, 25, 1004, TD
1109. Torito
by 2:00 pm, general model averages show barbara out of mexico and in the GOM as a 29MPH storm,
Directly east of Punta el Lagarto.

Quoting FunnelVortex:
Come on Barb, just a little further.

Actually, it's "farther!" :)
The 06z GFS shows the remnant circulation of Barbara dissipating almost entirely, while the remnant vorticity combines with an area of low pressure moving off the Yucatan from the western Caribbean in about 42 hours, sparking cyclogenesis in about 78 hours. In this case, it would be Andrea instead of Barbara.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Latest 12z Best Track mantains Barbara as TD.

EP, 02, 2013053012, , BEST, 0, 183N, 943W, 25, 1004, TD


According to those coordinates, Barbara is off the coast and in the BOC.

Quoting Waltanater:
Actually, it's "farther!" :)


Taz, is that you?
Good morning folks. Has anyone got a current wind shear map for the GOM?
1115. Torito
Alot of rain.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ARRIAGA IN THE
STATE OF CHIAPAS RECENTLY REPORTED A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 16.02
INCHES...407 MM...IN THE LAST 18 HOURS.

Based on latest SHIPS text for Barbara, not looking too promising for continued advisories since there are no forecast paramaters after 0 hour. Still time for that to change thought before 11 AM.
According to the SSD, Barbara is in the Atlantic basin.
1118. Torito
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. Has anyone got a current wind shear map for the GOM?


Low shear where barbara is.

Morning, FMG. Morning BobbyWeather, Torito, ST Scott, VR46L, Everyone Else. Nice to see the gang all here!
1120. Torito
Quoting Bobbyweather:
According to the SSD, Barbara is in the Atlantic basin.


Wow, that just changed less than 10 minutes ago, because i was just looking at the satellite.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
06Z GFS. Yikes!
when is it saying that will happen? And how strong is it
1122. Torito
Quoting Torito:


Low shear where barbara is.



Thank you Torito! Yes, shear looks low... for now
1124. Torito
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Morning, FMG. Morning BobbyWeather, Torito, ST Scott, VR46L, Everyone Else. Nice to see the gang all here!


Hello to you, too. :P
1125. VR46L
Quoting Torito:
The storm still has a shot at regeneration to up to 50mph before shear kills it if it can enter the GOM at the right place.


Yep



and



and



Shear at the moment is weak the warmest part of the the Gulf is the BOC!
NHC says remnant low in 12 hours followed by total dissipation in 24. Check back then.
Some are saying Barb already crossed.
Good morning all! Interesting day for Barbara. I don't wish storms on anyone so she needs to die die die lol
1129. Torito
Quoting VR46L:


Yep



and



and



Shear at the moment is weak the warmest part of the the Gulf is the BOC!


It really has a shot at this, as conditions are decent, unlike the normal unfavorable conditions around this time of year there..
1130. Torito
Quoting StormPro:
Good morning all! Interesting day for Barbara. I don't wish storms on anyone so she needs to die die die lol


It isnt really doing anything in the way of winds, just rain, and depending on the place, a landfall could actually be a good thing.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 06z GFS shows the remnant circulation of Barbara dissipating almost entirely, while the remnant vorticity combines with an area of low pressure moving off the Yucatan from the western Caribbean in about 42 hours, sparking cyclogenesis in about 78 hours. In this case, it would be Andrea instead of Barbara.

something close to that I'm expecting just a few things different though
According to latest ATCF Barbara scraped by with her life and is offically in the Bay of Campeche. Just interested to see what she does with her second chance at life.
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
when is it saying that will happen? And how strong is it


I believe that shows conditions on the 8th of June... and at 998, strong tropical storm/'minimal hurricane.

But be warned thats the 06Z, not neccessarily the most reliable model
1134. Torito
This shows that it will make it over, and still have its name...

1135. pcola57
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Morning, FMG. Morning BobbyWeather, Torito, ST Scott, VR46L, Everyone Else. Nice to see the gang all here!


Good morning to you too SI! Hope you get the rain you are needing..:)
Quoting WDEmobmet:


I believe that shows conditions on the 8th of June... and at 998, strong tropical storm/'minimal hurricane.

But be warned thats the 06Z, not neccessarily the most reliable model
ok thanks
1138. pcola57
New Drought Monitor..



12 week animation comparison..

Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good morning to you too SI! Hope you get the rain you are needing..:)

Thanks. :-) Looking good so far. You can't put too much faith in the HPC. But at the same time it's looking more and more promising. We'll see!
Quoting Waltanater:
Actually, it's "farther!" :)


I think either way is good...

FURTHER ON UP THE ROAD

Further on up the road,
Someone's gonna hurt you like you hurt me.
Further on up the road,
Someone's gonna hurt you like you hurt me.
Further on up the road, baby,
Just you wait and see.

You gotta reap just what you sow;
That old saying is true.
You gotta reap just what you sow;
That old saying is true.
Just like you mistreat someone,
Someone's gonna mistreat you.

You been laughing, pretty baby,
Someday you're gonna be crying.
You been laughing, pretty baby,
Someday you're gonna be crying.
Further on up the road,
You'll find out I wasn't lying.

Further on up the road,
Someone's gonna hurt you like you hurt me.
Further on up the road,
Someone's gonna hurt you like you hurt me.
Further on up the road, baby,
Just you wait and see.

Joe Medwick
1141. Torito
this is one of the times when i ignore the NHC, because i feel that the forcast cant be right if none of the models are correct, and alot of their forcast is based off of that.
1142. Torito
Quoting pcola57:
New Drought Monitor..



12 week animation comparison..



Drought is really getting better now.
I think we'll all be ready to not see this anymore!

Statement as of 8:00 PM EST on December 2, 2012

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure located over the east-central Atlantic Ocean
about 800 miles southwest of the western Azores is producing an area
of gale-force winds north of the center. This system is in the
process of acquiring frontal characteristics and development into
a subtropical cyclone is not expected. This system has a low
chance...near 0 percent...of becoming a subtropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours as it moves northward and then northeastward at
15 to 20 mph. This will be the last special tropical weather
outlook issued on this system. Additional information can be found
in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
&&
High seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.
$$
Forecaster Brown
1145. Torito
Anyone think this is one of the top ten smallest tropical systems on record? It looks pretty small to me.
1146. Torito
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
western Atoka County in southeast Oklahoma...
northern Bryan County in southeast Oklahoma...
southeastern Johnston County in southeast Oklahoma...

* until 930 am CDT

* at 849 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm located near silo... moving northeast at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
half dollar size hail...
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...

* locations impacted include...
Atoka... Caddo... Tushka... silo... Caney... Kenefic... Armstrong...
Mead... Nida and Bentley.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move inside a sturdy building until the storm has passed.

1147. Torito
From TWC:

Hurricane Barbara made landfall about 20 miles west
of Tonala, Mexico, in the state of Chiapas at 12:50 p.m. PDT on May 29, 2013.

While Tropical Depression Barbara's circulation interacted with the higher terrain of Chiapas state Wednesday evening, a new burst of convection near its center of circulation Thursday morning opened the small possibility the system could regenerate as it emerges in the Bay of Campeche. According to the National Hurricane Center, the name "Barbara" would be kept if advisories are continued in what is considered the "Atlantic Basin."

The primary threat from Barbara remains heavy rainfall, triggering additional flooding and mudslides in the region. Storm total rainfall may reach 20 inches, in isolated spots. In just 18 hours, Arriaga, Mexico picked up a whopping 16.02 inches of rain. Already there have been several rockslides and mudslides onto roads in Guatemala in recent days.

Barbara's formation on May 28 was the second earliest date on record (dating to 1949) of the eastern Pacific season's second named storm, runner up only to last year's Tropical Storm Bud, which formed on May 21. According to Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters, there was only one other May hurricane landfall in the east Pacific basin, dating to 1949, "Agatha" in 1971 as a Category one hurricane.

Quoting Torito:
Anyone think this is one of the top ten smallest tropical systems on record? It looks pretty small to me.

if it still is a tropical cyclone and if it is it still can't beat marco 08
Quoting Torito:
Anyone think this is one of the top ten smallest tropical systems on record? It looks pretty small to me.

I wish I had a list for this...
It does look small.

But usually size is measured by the radius or diameter of "gale-force winds", which Barbara currently doesn't have.
1150. Torito
Nogaps changed its model run YET AGAIN. Sorry, Pcola.

Quoting Torito:
Nogaps changed its model run YET AGAIN. Sorry, Pcola.


The UKMET model track forecast sure looks interesting. It makes Barbara return to the EPac.
1152. Torito
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I wish I had a list for this...
It does look small.

But usually size is measured by the radius or diameter of "gale-force winds", which Barbara currently doesn't have.


i know the smallest was tropical storm marco, followed by major hurricane tracy, but i dont have any information on the rest.

TRACY:


MARCO: (which looks strangely similar to barbara....)



Tropical storm marco was 25 miles wide.
1153. pcola57
Quoting Torito:
Nogaps changed its model run YET AGAIN. Sorry, Pcola.



This is one freaky weather year Torito..
1154. Torito
Quoting Bobbyweather:

The UKMET model track forecast sure looks interesting. It makes Barbara return to the EPac.


It has been wrong for the entire forcast of barbara, so i wouldnt bet on it taking that route..
I do have to say though after a little while of the ensemble not showing a Carib storm now the ensembles are bring it back in the 00Z run and now more ensemble are joining the other showing Carib system in 06Z I'm going to create a forecast on what I think may happen if a carib storm could be on the table
1156. Torito
Quoting pcola57:


This is one freaky weather year Torito..


Yea, it is... it is heading to 90 degrees here in Maryland...

Link
1157. Torito
SO DRY HERE.

We got 2" yesterday and raining again now. I managed to punch in all the precipitation readings back to the beginning of the year on the RainLog.org site I mentioned yesterday.



Also, don't forget ScottLincoln's suggestion of being an official recorder by joining CoCoRaHS (Community Cooperative Rain, Hail, Snow). You have to have their specific collector which will run you about $45 with shipping, but it's a pretty cool way to contribute to science without a great deal of effort.
1159. Torito
Haha so low confidence level in model data here.

61 yr old American surfer killed from Hurricane Barbara
1161. Torito
What the heck is wrong with the one model???? No, just no.

Barb already crossed as far as I'm concerned.
1164. Torito
Models are pretty much all signaling regeneration at this point, other than hwrf.


1165. WxLogic
Morning
Quoting Torito:
SO DRY HERE.


I know the feeling, Torito. It sucks. That's how it was in Marion (and all of Illinois for that matter) this time last year. And of course the month of June is when the vegetation, trees, shrubs, crops, and grass took the heaviest beating. Hang it there is all I can say. If I meet my two inch rainfall quota for the next couple days, I will send any excess up your way for you and washingtonian115. :D
“Let me be blunt: The state of operational U.S. numerical weather prediction is an embarrassment to the nation, and it does not have to be this way,” wrote Cliff Maas, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington on his weather blog.
You all are still hoping for a Caribbean storm.Lol.
1169. Torito
Quoting washingtonian115:
You all are still hoping for a Caribbean storm.Lol.


So? xD all the models have barbara hanging out where it is in that warm air pocket for a day or two before it goes wherever, since models cant agree past 18 hours...
1170. Torito
Quoting RitaEvac:
61 yr old American surfer killed from Hurricane Barbara


Moral of that story: dont be stupid enough to surf in a hurricane making landfall, YOU WILL DIE.
Quoting RitaEvac:
U.S. vs. European hurricane model: Which is better?


“Let me be blunt: The state of operational U.S. numerical weather prediction is an embarrassment to the nation, and it does not have to be this way,” wrote Cliff Maas, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington on his weather blog.
Meteorologists agree that the two American supercomputers that provide storm models are underpowered — which is why the National Weather Service plans on upgrading those computers in the next two years. The two main forecasting computers — one in Orlando, Fla., and the other in Reston — will receive $25 million in upgrades as part of the Hurricane Sandy supplemental bill that was recently approved by Congress.


Computer upgrade? Must be part of that "pork" good ol' Mr. Coburn likes to wax on...
Quoting RitaEvac:
61 yr old American surfer killed from Hurricane Barbara
So it makes 3 deaths?
1173. Torito
ill be back later... l8rs.
Is shear relaxed enough for her?
Quoting Luisport:
So it makes 3 deaths?


Heard 2
Quoting RitaEvac:


Heard 2
The two allready count with this surfer?
Quoting Luisport:
The two allready count with this surfer?


Yes as of now
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yes as of now
ok then it's two
Extreme Heat Alert

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Thursday 30 May 2013
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:12 miles
Temperature:75.2°F
Dewpoint:66.9°F
Humidity:75%
Wind:SSW 2 mph
Humidex: 88



highs today may reach 92 with humidex levels surpassing 100 degree's
thats why surfing is so fun you could always take the last wipeout. kind of like turning the key on your car.
Quoting RitaEvac:
“Let me be blunt: The state of operational U.S. numerical weather prediction is an embarrassment to the nation, and it does not have to be this way,” wrote Cliff Maas, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington on his weather blog.


lol my favorite quote in the article
LIE IN OUR GRAVES

When I step into the light
My arms open widely.
When I step into the light,
My eyes searching wildly.
Would you not like to be
Sitting on top of the world with your legs hanging free?
Would you not like to be OK, OK, OK?

When I'm walking by the water,
Splish splash, me and you taking a bath.
When I'm walking by the water,
Come to my toes, to my ankles, to my head, to my soul,
Then I'm blown away.

When I'm walking by the water,
Splish splash, me and you taking a bath.
When I'm walking by the water,
Come to my toes, to my ankles, to my head, to my soul,
Then I'm blown away.

I can't believe that we would lie in our graves
Wondering if we had spent our living days well.
I can't believe that we would lie in our graves
Wondering what we might have been.
I can't believe that we would lie in our graves
Wondering if we had spent our living days well.
I can't believe that we would lie in our graves
Wondering what we might have been.

Would you not like to be,
Would you not like to be,
I can't believe that you would not like to be,
Would you not like to be,

ok, ok, ok,
ok, ok, ok,
ok, ok, ok,
ok, ok, ok,

and we dance away.

Dave Matthews, Carter Beauford, Stefan Lessard, LeRoi Moore, Boyd Tinsley
Ok, I know I'm pushing my luck here, but if you haven't seen Mr. Reynolds in this, you gotta check it out!
How does he do it for so long?

1184. JNTenne
Earth Crust Displacement is happening!! (jk)



I see we have our first TD for the Atlantic
Quoting belizeit:
I see we have our first TD for the Atlantic

we do not have any tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin yet anyway
my favorite band has been and is govt mule . warren haynes and his crew are great. raining hard here e cen florida
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

we do not have any tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin yet anyway
Wunderkid you makes this Blogg interesting
Quoting belizeit:
Wunderkid your trolling makes this Blogg interesting



he is right we do not any TDs but we do have Tropical Depression BARBARA but that dos not make it are 1st TD its from the Epac
1190. hydrus
Quoting belizeit:
Wunderkid you makes this Blogg interesting
Reproted !!..:)
looks done like dinner

Quoting belizeit:
Wunderkid your trolling makes this Blogg interesting

What is the exact definition of trolling anyway?
He just said there are no TCs in the Atlantic, which is true as of now, there's no problem with that.
Quoting Torito:
Haha so low confidence level in model data here.



Has nothing to do with low confidence in model data, but everything to do with the low being forecast to dissipate at the end of that track.
1194. hydrus
Quoting mikatnight:
Ok, I know I'm pushing my luck here, but if you haven't seen Mr. Reynolds in this, you gotta check it out!
How does he do it for so long?

Saw that a while back. Massive bar chord riffs that are at the very least extremely difficult.
Quoting hydrus:
Reproted !!..:)
Thank You Have a great day.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

What is the exact definition of trolling anyway?
He just said there are no TCs in the Atlantic, which is true as of now, there's no problem with that.



North Atlantic
Barbara

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------




East Pacific
91E
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------




Central Pacific
No Storms
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------




West Pacific
95W
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------









India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
11:30 AM IST May 30 2013
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, the depression over coastal West Bengal and neighborhood remained practically stationary near 22.3N 87.5E, about 30 km southeast of Midnapore, West Bengal.

The system is likely to move slowly west northwestward and weaken gradually into a low pressure area during the next 24 hours.
Quoting Torito:
SO DRY HERE.



We are supposed to storms (maybe) on Sunday, that might help. We'll be traveling to State College that day, so I'm guessing there will a deluge and maybe a tornado or two :)
Quoting RitaEvac:
“Let me be blunt: The state of operational U.S. numerical weather prediction is an embarrassment to the nation, and it does not have to be this way,” wrote Cliff Maas, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington on his weather blog.


Does he mean numerical as in the Japanese model, we ought to have one like that?

Ritaevac, are you guys needing rain where you are? Probably not as bad as centex, but some Houston people
were hoping for rain over the last few blogs.
I just love his ambittion he has been calling for a TS to develope in the Carribean since the 24 of May and nothing has yet happened . And he still keeps at it i would have thought he would have learned already that the Computer models love to create Ghost Storms
Quoting belizeit:
Thank You Have a great day.
he is joking ya know that right

its ok to laugh a little its good for one's soul
Quoting redwagon:


Does he mean numerical as in the Japanese model, we ought to have one like that?

Ritaevac, are you guys needing rain where you are? Probably not as bad as centex, but some Houston people
were hoping for rain over the last few blogs.


Yes, ground is getting dry, and can see grass starting to stress, was watering last night after mowing.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



North Atlantic
Barbara

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
East Pacific
91E
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Central Pacific
No Storms
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
West Pacific
95W
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Well, I guess Barbara is in the Atlantic. But it's not officially an Atlantic tropical depression until an advisory is issued. (Right?)
The models have backed off on a Atlantic system?

GFS and CMC used to show a system heading NE out of the Carribean
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is joking ya know that right

its ok to laugh a little its good for one's soul
Yes thats why i thanked i love this Blogg and all the diversity we have to it
1206. hydrus
Quoting belizeit:
Thank You Have a great day.
It was for humor purposes only.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Well, I guess Barbara is in the Atlantic. But it's not officially an Atlantic tropical depression until an advisory is issued. (Right?)
correct ssd has the floater on the atlantic side to end it there I think
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
The models have backed off on a Atlantic system?

GFS and CMC used to show a system heading NE out of the Carribean
Hi there i see your a new member on here ! We bloggers that have been on here for years don't take models to serious in the SW carrib because systems that form there ussually take over 4 days to cosolidate so we rarly see anything comming out of the SW Carrib
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Well, I guess Barbara is in the Atlantic. But it's not officially an Atlantic tropical depression until an advisory is issued. (Right?)

not atlantic unless NHC call it
OK KS

I don't know what radar settings to use to better see if something is looking tornadic.


Quoting FIUStormChaser:
The models have backed off on a Atlantic system?

GFS and CMC used to show a system heading NE out of the Carribean
the kid is going to have a fit when he finds out
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
The models have backed off on a Atlantic system?

GFS and CMC used to show a system heading NE out of the Carribean


Not particularly...

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not atlantic unless NHC call it

Well, it is in the Atlantic basin if you see the running best track. But that's not the point. I just wanted to say it's not an Atlantic TD, which you agree with.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the kid is going to have a fit when he finds out
+1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is joking ya know that right

its ok to laugh a little its good for one's soul


Hey there Keeper hows it going for you today?
For me I'm just checking in to see what this Ex-Barbra will be doing over the next week.


Taco :o)
Well, woke up at 5 am as usual for school and went there to take an 30 questions exam. At 9:30 this morning, I was officially done with high school and went back home. Can't wait to go back to high school in few weeks to graduate and start a new chapter in life!
Quoting hydrus:
Reproted !!..:)

ROFL. Coffee nearly on tablet right now. Wow!! Good stuff there.
1218. hydrus
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
The models have backed off on a Atlantic system?

GFS and CMC used to show a system heading NE out of the Carribean
It still there , but not as strong. It did have it over the Yucatan for a while, which might affect model runs.
Quoting taco2me61:


Hey there Keeper hows it going for you today?
For me I'm just checking in to see what this Ex-Barbra will be doing over the next week.


Taco :o)
doing good taco just chilling watchin like everyone else

I don't think B is going to do much
Really! What is up with that CMC? I think it does it just so everyone doesn't get bored and fall asleep...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doing good taco just chilling watchin like everyone else

I don't think B is going to do much

Me either but "Hey" never know living on the Gulf Coast....

Taco :o)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, woke up at 5 am as usual for school and went there to take an 30 questions exam. At 9:30 this morning, I was officially done with high school and went back home. Can't wait to go back to high school in few weeks to graduate and start a new chapter in life!

Congrats! I have to wait two more years to graduate... I wish that time came soon.

Off topic, but I can't believe that you wake up at five in the morning! When do you sleep?
1223. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks done like dinner

I thought she hung in there pretty good for a little cat-1...
Keeper you have been so long on here can you remember the Tropical Wave season starting so slow before?
Quoting belizeit:
Keeper you have been so long on here can you remember the Tropical Wave season starting so slow before?

Actually, a tropical wave (maybe two) formed about ten days ago or earlier. But I get your point.
Quoting hydrus:
I thought she hung in there pretty good for a little cat-1...
she was a fighter surprised lots I think
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Congrats! I have to wait two more years to graduate... I wish that time came soon.

Off topic, but I can't believe that you wake up at five in the morning! When do you sleep?
School starts at 7 am. I have to drive to there every morning so I got to get up really early to get ready, eat, and drive.
Quoting belizeit:
Hi there i see your a new member on here ! We bloggers that have been on here for years don't take models to serious in the SW carrib because systems that form there ussually take over 4 days to cosolidate so we rarly see anything comming out of the SW Carrib



Yeah 200 hours was a long way out. Models really forecast that much into the foreseeable future accurately.

2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball02E.BARBARA



East Pacific


green ball91E.INVEST



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball95W.INVEST



Indian Ocean


green ball94B.INVEST



Southern Hemisphere
Quoting hydrus:
It still there , but not as strong. It did have it over the Yucatan for a while, which might affect model runs.


Isn't there high shear in the gulf of 30-50kts? I'm not sure this might even have a chance of materializing

Quoting Bluestorm5:
School starts at 7 am. I have to drive to there every morning so I got to get up really early to get ready, eat, and drive.

Man, it starts early. Here in Korea, high school starts at 8 am. Anyways, again, congratulations!
Quoting belizeit:
Keeper you have been so long on here can you remember the Tropical Wave season starting so slow before?
in a normal year a long time ago we would start seeing them by mid to late may so there on time I think

one thing I notice this year that's really different is how much water vapor is over the atlantic with very little or almost nothing for dry air around
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Actually, a tropical wave (maybe two) formed about ten days ago or earlier. But I get your point.
Yeah i saw them but ussually once we get or first wave then there is no stopping till the end of season now its probably a week already with no Wave but maybe its waiting for the mjo
Good morning everyone

Ensemble from 00z run:

Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Isn't there high shear in the gulf of 30-50kts? I'm not sure this might even have a chance of materializing



This is still a week out when the GFS has that storm in the middle of the Gulf. A lot can change between now and then.
1237. hydrus
If this were to pan out, there may be intense rain for the S.E..Still heavy in the gulf too.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in a normal year a long time ago we would start seeing them by mid to late may so there on time I think

one thing I notice this year that's really different is how much water vapor is over the atlantic with very little or almost nothing for dry air around
OKso the last 4 years or so i have been following the tropics have just had a early start . Thanks keep
Tropical Depression Barbara will become Tropical Depression 1 probably at the next advisory.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in a normal year a long time ago we would start seeing them by mid to late may so there on time I think

one thing I notice this year that's really different is how much water vapor is over the atlantic with very little or almost nothing for dry air around


That could be key.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doing good taco just chilling watchin like everyone else

I don't think B is going to do much
I think B has done enough to disrupt the flow over the WCar to change what the forecast was suggesting. I certainly am watching to see how much longer that circulation lasts. Between the trough and Barbara's remnants there may be some moments of interest over the next 120 or so...
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Tropical Depression Barbara will become Tropical Depression 1 probably at the next advisory.


No. It will not count as an Atlantic storm. If for some reason it ever strengthens back to Tropical Storm status, it will remain Tropical Storm Barbara, just as it is still Tropical Depression Barbara.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Tropical Depression Barbara will become Tropical Depression 1 probably at the next advisory.

No, it won't, because the NHC said that it would keep the name Barbara if it successfully crosses Mexico into the Bay of Campeche.

(F5 F5 F5 F5....)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in a normal year a long time ago we would start seeing them by mid to late may so there on time I think

one thing I notice this year that's really different is how much water vapor is over the atlantic with very little or almost nothing for dry air around


I beleive that is there reason for such a "High number" of storms this year.... Just saying

Taco :o)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yes, ground is getting dry, and can see grass starting to stress, was watering last night after mowing.


Good, then I won't feel bad about hoping for a TXMX landfall and Hermine deja-vu.
Does anyone else see this?
"48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground..."
Or is it just me?
1250. hydrus
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Isn't there high shear in the gulf of 30-50kts? I'm not sure this might even have a chance of materializing

Especially over the gulf. It is forecast to lighten up some..Especially in a week or so.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Does anyone else see this?
"48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground..."
Or is it just me?




yep i see it i all so have it on my blog



Link


but my zip is 95370
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Does anyone else see this?
"48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground..."
Or is it just me?


Yeah. I think it's because Dr. Masters has his local weather set to Ann Arbor, Michigan on his blog. That is their zip code.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BUT VERY ILL DEFINED...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Well what do you know, she just barely made it.

I woke up, and find this: Debby part II?



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER
EVEN EXISTS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS
TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL
VISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A
SERIOUS CONCERN. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THIS REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 18.5N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 18.7N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/1200Z 18.8N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah. I think it's because Dr. Masters has his local weather set to Ann Arbor, Michigan on his blog. That is their zip code.

I figured, the zip seemed pretty familiar to me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well what do you know, she just barely made it.


I doubt it has much longer to live.
Hmm... not the Atlantic yet...NHC says it is very near, but has not entered, the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well what do you know, she just barely made it.



Yes, she could!!!!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah. I think it's because Dr. Masters has his local weather set to Ann Arbor, Michigan on his blog. That is their zip code.


Excellent, Holmes! You've cracked the case yet again!
Quoting redwagon:


Good, then I won't feel bad about hoping for a TXMX landfall and Hermine deja-vu.






Barbara updated.


Link
Quoting hydrus:
Especially over the gulf. It is forecast to lighten up some..Especially in a week or so.


Just a note: the 12m/sec in the top image is still over 23kts of shear...
Good Morning. She barely made it across but about to face 30 knots of sheer if she holds together:

Link
1265. hydrus
Well, I should get some sleep. I might visit the blog in 7 hours. Everyone have a good day!
lol Barbara has not left land and is not expected to
today looks like it might be a bust for severe weather still a little early yet too make that call
1269. hydrus
NHC says is still an EPac system
Looks like that eddy in the Gulf is poised to drift out of the loop current.
Depending on its movement; Could sure be a big WILD CARD for any gulf storms later on in the season.
1272. aquak9
WOW!!

Quoting Tazmanian:
today looks like it might be a bust for severe weather still a little early yet too make that call
Taz... the main event is later in the day. Right now is just leftover from last night's storms.
Quoting aquak9:
WOW!!

sandy model run from 2012
Quoting aquak9:
WOW!!



Jason?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Jason?
rofl
1277. hydrus
Quoting seminolesfan:


Just a note: the 12m/sec in the top image is still over 23kts of shear...
Still might see a decent low form, and if shear lessens over the next week or so, we may have something. The GFS has the second system being much stronger than the first. If this were to happen, there would likely be a significant flooding event.
NHC should call it dead from the new forecast discussion
Quoting aquak9:
WOW!!



Might be a good idea to post a note for context when you dig up OLD graphics for PAST storms.

This was from 2012. Sandy I believe...
Quoting seminolesfan:
Looks like that eddy in the Gulf is poised to drift out of the loop current.
Depending on its movement; Could sure be a big WILD CARD for any gulf storms later on in the season.


Morning; here is another shot of the eddy:

Link

They sometimes hang out for several months or dissipate slowly....Will have to take it on a storm by storm basis if anything gets into the Gulf this year and nears or goes over an eddy or loop.....Big player with rapid intensification issues if the right storm comes along.
Crazy that we still remember a handle of a guy named Jason that always reported with WOW! at everything 3 years ago.
Quoting hydrus:
Still might see a decent low form, and if shear lessens over the next week or so, we may have something. The GFS has the second system being much stronger than the first. If this were to happen, there would likely be a significant flooding event.


Oh, I wasn't preaching to you, buddy! I know you know your stuff. :)

More of a note for newbies that may see the 12 and not check the units.
1283. Torito
Barbara starting to take an unexpected turn to the north-west, it appears.... It is still managing to hold together for the time being though...

Regeneration is no longer likely.
Barbra won't have long to live.
1286. Torito
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regeneration is no longer likely.


the turn just came all of a sudden. xD
hmm interesting SW Caribbean low is moving N-NNW
Quoting seminolesfan:


Might be a good idea to post a note for context when you dig up OLD graphics for PAST storms.

This was from 2012. Sandy I believe...


just an attempt to create a blog uproar
poor one at that

too much time under the bunker maybe
1290. Torito
It now appears to want to take nogaps model path.

1291. Torito
Models are so confused right now. xD

@1287:

Naaa. Not mad. :)


More of a *facepalm* at your sneaky-sneakiness attempt!
Quoting seminolesfan:
@1287:

Naaa. Not mad. :)


More of a *facepalm* at your sneaky-sneakiness attempt!
whats that forest gump quote
1294. Torito
Still has broad rotation.


1295. Torito
looking at RGB floater loop
the spin seen on satellite appears to have moved SE-ESE on last 2-3 frames
but of course the TD is disintegrating so its going to go everywhere
1297. Thrawst
Quoting Tazmanian:
today looks like it might be a bust for severe weather still a little early yet too make that call


Lol, already calling it before the event even begins? I would like to point out that the EF-5 Moore tornado of May 20, 2013 had similar tornado probabilities (10% hatched), so the threat is definitely there.

If nothing occurs by 9pm CDT, then I may agree with you Taz, but right now I think it's simply too early.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
whats that forest gump quote


Quoting "wetdog":


"I am not a smart man."



That one, Keep?
Is it just me or is the center of Barbara actually about 60 miles ENE of the advisory location? Not that I think it will matter; I believe that the demise of Barbara is near.
1300. Torito
i believe this is a new invest, and it is currently in the west pacific basin.


1301. Torito
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looking at RGB floater loop
the spin seen on satellite appears to have moved SE-ESE on last 2-3 frames
but of course the TD is disintegrating so its going to go everywhere


its still stuck partially on land. really destroying the storm like that.
Quoting mikatnight:
Really! What is up with that CMC? I think it does it just so everyone doesn't get bored and fall asleep...

Think the GFS had something similar to what the Canadien is showing now on it's runs last week?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


just an attempt to create a blog uproar
poor one at that

too much time under the bunker maybe
That seems like a comment unbecoming a moderator. To me, anyway. But then, maybe it's a joke. I hope so.
Quoting Thrawst:


Lol, already calling it before the event even begins? I would like to point out that the EF-5 Moore tornado of May 20, 2013 had similar tornado probabilities (10% hatched), so the threat is definitely there.

If nothing occurs by 9pm CDT, then I may agree with you Taz, but right now I think it's simply too early.



isnt that what i said at the end still a little early too call it a bust buy well see how today plays out
1305. Torito
1306. flcanes
Quoting Torito:
Models are so confused right now. xD


lol. one takes it into my backyard.
1307. flcanes
Quoting Torito:

Hmm. I think it makes it into the BoC briefly
1308. Thrawst
Quoting Tazmanian:



isnt that what i said at the end still a little early too call it a bust buy well see how today plays out


I seriously need to invest (ha, see what I did there?) in a pair of glasses.
1309. Torito
Anyone got satellite on the spot west of africa?

1310. hydrus
Quoting Torito:
It now appears to want to take nogaps model path.

If the GFS is correct, moisture from Barb would interact with the forecast tropical system late next week. Could make an already wet system wetter.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
That seems like a comment unbecoming a moderator. To me, anyway. But then, maybe it's a joke. I hope so.

It IS a joke.

Keep Calm

and

Blog On!
1312. Torito
Quoting flcanes:

lol. one takes it into my backyard.


IKR! Such a fail of a model run for this storm.
1313. flcanes
Quoting hydrus:
If the GFS is correct, moisture from Barb would interact with the forecast tropical system late next week. Could make an already wet system wetter.

That will be problematic for my area. With an already wetter than normal may, this might become a serious flooding situation
Quoting Hurricane4Caster:
Is it just me or is the center of Barbara actually about 60 miles ENE of the advisory location? Not that I think it will matter; I believe that the demise of Barbara is near.

no what you see is a mid-low level spin but the low-surface spin is where NHC has it
1315. flcanes
Quoting Torito:


IKR! Such a fail of a model run for this storm.

The point is that the models dont know what to do. This reminds me a lot of Debby, come to think of it
1316. hydrus
Quoting Torito:
Anyone got satellite on the spot west of africa?

1317. flcanes
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no what you see is a mid-low level spin but the low-surface spin is where NHC has it

Bottom line, Its over for Barbara. However, She might briefly make it into the BoC
1318. flcanes
Quoting hydrus:

eh, not really much of anything.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Does anyone else see this?
"48103 Weather Forecast from Weather Underground..."
Or is it just me?


Haha I thought it was just me
1321. Torito
Quoting hydrus:


thanks
Quoting Tazmanian:



isnt that what i said at the end still a little early too call it a bust buy well see how today plays out


Then why did you say 'today looks like it might be a bust for severe weather'?

When you lead with a statement like that, what do you expect people to think?
Quoting Torito:


its still stuck partially on land. really destroying the storm like that.


I don't think in 7 years I've seen a storm so mercilessly RIPed as Barbara... Pasch must have an ex-wife by that name or something.
1324. flcanes
Quoting Civicane49:

Barbara has lost almost all convection
1325. Torito
Short note i found on the noaa website about barbara, they seem to be confused about the storm too:


TXNT21 KNES 301211
TCSNTL

A. 02E (BARBARA)

B. 30/1145Z

C. 18.1N

D. 93.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. OVERLAND

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER LAND. HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTION
HAS WARMED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


Quoting flcanes:

Barbara has lost almost all convection
12Z GFS running now. Hoping for more good great news.
The NHC is likely to declare it post-tropical in the next advisory. This is also when they'll officially say it made it to the Bay of Campeche. If this occurs, even though it made it to the other side, it would've spent no time as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic because it wasn't declared crossed until its final advisory.

That would mean no basin crosser officially. :/
1328. Torito
1329. flcanes
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC is likely to declare it post-tropical in the next advisory. This is also when they'll officially say it made it to the Bay of Campeche. If this occurs, even though it made it to the other side, it would've spent no time as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic because it wasn't declared crossed until its final advisory.

That would mean no basin crosser officially. :/

:(
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1331. VR46L
Nearly Gone now !!!!!!!!!!!

wunderkidcayman,after those first couple of weak Tropical Waves that were in the charts in the past two weeks,there are none at this time going back one week. But as it normally occurs,as June arrives there will be some impulses rolling off West Africa.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NHC is likely to declare it post-tropical in the next advisory. This is also when they'll officially say it made it to the Bay of Campeche. If this occurs, even though it made it to the other side, it would've spent no time as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic because it wasn't declared crossed until its final advisory.

That would mean no basin crosser officially. :/

The right call. Hate to burst some of the bubbles on here, but NHC must do it's job. :/
as Barbara upper level clouds get sheared off an the mid level cloud dissipate you can start to see the very weak low level spin
and I know you guys are going to say it so heres my answer
yes Barbara is getting sheared 15-20kt yes its light but a very weak and fragile system Barbara is now and for a fragile and weak system like that for it to have the slight bit of survival it needs 0-5kts shear
Quoting seminolesfan:

It IS a joke.

Keep Calm

and

Blog On!
Thanks. Yes. I must keep calm 'cause I'm kind of sitting on a triumvirate of outflow boundaries. You all have fun. Echo... echo.
i only like to post my novice forecast upon declaration over and over again will only get you bashed when its wrong