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April 2013: Earth's 13th warmest April; 92E a threat to Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

April 2013 was the globe's 13th warmest April since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA also rated it the 13th warmest April on record. The year-to-date period of January - April has been the 8th warmest such period on record. April 2013 global land temperatures were the 17th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record. April 2013 was the 338th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 13th or 11th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during April 2013 was the 9th largest in the 47-year period of record, and the first above-average April snow cover since 2003. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April 2013 in his April 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that The U.K. had its coldest April since 1989, and a storm felled the Pontfadog Oak, said by some to be Britain’s oldest tree. The historic tree dated back to at least 802 A.D., and was said to have served as a rallying point for a Welsh prince’s army that defeated England’s King Henry II in 1157 A.D.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2013, the 13th warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Temperatures were much warmer than average across much of Mexico, the coastal regions of South America, most of Argentina, southern Europe, parts of coastal Africa, far eastern Europe, and western Australia. Record warm temperatures were observed across the southern tip of South America, far western Brazil, the southern Philippines, and some locales in far eastern Russia. It was much cooler than average across a swath of central North America, central Paraguay, part of northwestern Canada, and much of Alaska, where the southeastern portion of Alaska had record cold April temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

One billion-dollar disaster in April: floods in Buenos Aires, Argentina
Torrential rainfall fell across parts of Argentina’s city and province of Buenos Aires between the 2nd and 4th, triggering flash flooding that killed at least 70 and did $1.3 billion in damage, making it the deadliest and most damaging weather disaster world-wide in April. In the city of Buenos Aires, seven hours of heavy rains flooded subways and submerged low-lying neighborhoods. Hardest-hit was the La Plata region, where 400 millimeters (15.74 inches) of rain fell in just two hours. The total was more than the city had ever recorded during an entire month of April. Argentina’s largest refinery, Ensenada, also sustained damage from the floods, plus a fire.

The Argentinian flood in April brought the 2013 tally of billion-dollar weather disasters to six, according to the April 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The six billion-dollar weather disasters through April 2013:

1) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
2) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
3) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
4) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
5) Flooding in Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
6) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

Preliminary damage estimates of $2 billion from the May 20, 2013 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma tornado will likely put that disaster on the list for May.


Figure 2. Severe flooding in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on April, 3, 2013 submerged half the city in waters up to 2 meters (6.6') deep. Image credit: focolare.org.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 13th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during April 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of May 20, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 7th lowest April extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during April reached its seventh lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 12th consecutive April and 143rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen seven of the ten lowest April extents in the satellite record.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Invest 92E.

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala
Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)


Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Monday, May 28, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. You can follow this week's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest begins today
The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period Monday though Wednesday in the Midwest, with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Monday) over portions of Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska. The severe weather outbreak will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, though SPC is only highlighting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather on those days at present.

Have a great Memorial Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:

Breakfast Menu | Brennans

OYSTERS BENEDICT
Fresh Gulf oysters fried to perfection and served on Canadian bacon with Hollandaise sauce. Suggested Wine - Gewurztraminer


For breakfast...more of a grits, bacon and scrambled eggs guy.
Another TVN group got windows blown out.

@SeanSchoferTVN 7m

@reedtimmerTVN We're looking for you but just got all our windows blown out.




@SeanSchoferTVN 4m

We're in the armored Yukon today but yes we need Dominator 3!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

majority of that says NW Carib storm


I would say heavy rains for Jamaica and the Caymans and also extending to Puerto Rico and the DR.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For breakfast...more of a grits, bacon and scrambled eggs guy.


What's a grit?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For breakfast...more of a grits, bacon and scrambled eggs guy.
Now, that's what I'm talking about! Good ol' Southern breakfast!
Quoting Grothar:


What's a grit?


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For breakfast...more of a grits, bacon and scrambled eggs guy.
At least you like breakfast. Some of the breakfasts I have most enjoyed have been internet "breakfasts" right here on the blog... everybody else's food sounds so much more interesting than mine... lol
What's wrong with just plain ol' oysters with some Tabasco for breakfast?
Quoting Grothar:


What's a grit?


Two letters short of a twit.
Quoting caneswatch:
What's wrong with just plain ol' oysters with some Tabasco for breakfast?


Hey canes...long time, no see. How are you doing? Ready for the upcoming season?
Stew fish and johnny cake - the breakfast of kings... or at least Kings....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hey canes...long time, no see. How are you doing? Ready for the upcoming season?


Doing great Geoff, how about you?

Unfortunately, looks like another busy one again this year.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Stew fish and johnny cake - the breakfast of kings... or at least Kings....


Sounds kinda heavy before you go to work. I would take a nap after that!
Quoting caneswatch:
What's wrong with just plain ol' oysters with some Tabasco for breakfast?


Hey, canes.
Quoting caneswatch:


Doing great Geoff, how about you?

Unfortunately, looks like another busy one again this year.


It appears that way. Let's keep the streak going and keep them away from south Florida.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sounds kinda heavy before you go to work. I would take a nap after that!
Think tuna sandwich and u will not be so intimidated... lol... actually can be lighter than the "traditional" breakfast, depending on how much you eat and how prepared... maybe I should offer it one Saturday morning for the blog breakfast... good hurricane food...
Quoting Civicane49:

Looking good
Just testing IntelliGeoff...

the only thing 92E need now is convection
Someone had a little too much fun today in Hattiesburg for Memorial Day. Sorry for the off-topic photo, but this is too funny to not share. Go home, captain. You're drunk.

May 27, 2013 Ellsworth, KS-Basehunters/Facebook

Beautiful supercell at sunset about 50 min ago!

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, canes.


Howdy Gro! How goes it?
Boil Fish n' grits!

Aaaaaaahhh....
That's larger than a CD. Would probably make for a bad day if it hit you on the head.

0125 425 2 NW MONTROSE JEWELL KS 3981 9811 LARGEST HAIL STONE MEASURED 5.25 INCHES. NUMEROUS STONES 3.5 TO 4 INCHES. (GID)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Boil Fish n' grits!

Aaaaaaahhh....
Talkin' bout the island life... yeah...

lol
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It appears that way. Let's keep the streak going and keep them away from south Florida.


We got the worst of Isaac and luckily Sandy gave us a minor scrape last year. I still have the pictures and video of them in my iPhone. I'll upload some on here soon.

7 years we've been lucky and it never went past 6 years before. It's bound to run out soon, hopefully not this year.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Someone had a little too much fun today in Hattiesburg for Memorial Day. Sorry for the off-topic photo, but this is too funny to not share. Go home, captain. You're drunk.





cool stoplight
Quoting MississippiWx:
Someone had a little too much fun today in Hattiesburg for Memorial Day. Sorry for the off-topic photo, but this is too funny to not share. Go home, captain. You're drunk.



I'm giving it all she's got captain! XD
Quoting caneswatch:


I'm giving it all she's got captain! XD


Admiral, there be whales here!

Sean Casey having problems with his damaged TIV.

@SeanSchoferTVN 1m

Hey @reedtimmerTVN it sounds like Sean Casey is stuck out there in the TIV too. Do you see him?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For breakfast...more of a grits, bacon and scrambled eggs guy.
The last Pope resigned over breakfast issues. They would ask him every morning..."You want Eggs, Benedict?"....and he would answer " No, scrambled".
Okay, karma must be telling me something.

1) Had a country ham dinner at church the other night, basically a breakfast, southern-style for dinner. I only had the ham and fruit since I don't like breakfast' foods after well, breakfast time.

2) The blog is discussing different foods for breakfasts.

What?
Yeah, Sean Casey and Reed Timmer are both stuck in the mud because of heavy rain surrounding the tornado.
Confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado in eastern Kansas.

504 Grothar: What's a grit?

A redneck or cowboy who's too disgusting to wanna hang around with.

508 caneswatch: What's wrong with just plain ol' oysters with some Tabasco for breakfast?

"Made from the original recipe" Tabasco has been diluted, gotten WAY too wimpy over the years.
Useta be, one droplet 'd make your ears sweat: USNavy once banned drink-a-bottle initiations/hazings.
Nowadays, it's as mild as LouisianaHotSauce, which is about as hot as a decent BloodyMary.
Reports of substantial damage to a @JohnDeere dealership north of Marysville, KS per WIBW. #kswx
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Admiral, there be whales here!



I bet that was no tribble at all.
Quoting Civicane49:

starting to regain convection on the W side of the COC
To respond to Gro (sorry was at work): really? your 100th birthday? or did you mean your 100th century birthday?
Anyway, Does anyone want to venture and educated guess on the percentage of possibility that the central area of the FL peninsula will get hit with a hurricane this season? TIA.
545. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok what we got for first 5 storm names (atlantic)

Andrea


Barry


Chantal


Dorain


Erin

Barry ???
omg that will be a CAT 5
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Gro! Can ya post the link on cyclogenesis 120-240 hours, if you could. I thunk I may have it stashed somewhere,but am starting a new link folder. Thanks :)
Unless 92E makes huge strides in organizing overnight, I have doubts it is classified until tomorrow afternoon. It lacks convection and its low-level circulation is very elongated.
Is it near Lawrence?
Lets see what it does when its fully over water..

Busy day for slight risk today. 16 reported tornadoes.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is it near Lawrence?
Marysville? Nah, it's about a hour to NW of Lawrence, KS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Unless 92E makes huge strides in organizing overnight, I have doubts it is classified until tomorrow afternoon. It lacks convection and its low-level circulation is very elongated.


It looked better earlier ,circulation looked to be tightening up....the usual ebb and flow I guess
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Stay Dry - Hang Loose
Quoting aspectre:
504 Grothar: What's a grit?

A redneck or cowboy who's too disgusting to wanna hang around with.

508 caneswatch: What's wrong with just plain ol' oysters with some Tabasco for breakfast?

"Made from the original recipe" Tabasco has been diluted, gotten WAY too wimpy over the years.
Useta be, one droplet 'd make your ears sweat: USNavy once banned drink-a-bottle initiations/hazings.
Nowadays, it's as mild as LouisianaHotSauce, which is about as hot as a decent BloodyMary.


The bottle I had this weekend was strong. I think i'll do some with my next crawfish boil!
92E looks poised to redevelop its convection as D-min exits and D-max enters. You can already see convection popping back up and it should be in much better shape tomorrow morning.

Dangit Jim I'm doctor, not a meteorologist.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dangit Jim I'm doctor, not a meteorologist.


...and?
92E still needs more work to do; the low-level center remains broad on the latest ASCAT pass and convection has decreased over the center. Once the circulation center is very well-defined and sustain sufficient convection over it, then we will have a tropical depression. The diurnal maximum should reinvigorate convection by early tomorrow morning.

Quoting Civicane49:
92E still needs more work to do; the low-level center remains broad on the latest ASCAT pass and convection has decreased over the center. Once the circulation center is very well-defined and sustain sufficient convection over it, then we will have a tropical depression.



Its low level structure has made large gains today. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a tropical cyclone tomorrow.
Quoting Civicane49:
92E still needs more work to do; the low-level center remains broad on the latest ASCAT pass and convection has decreased over the center. Once the circulation center is very well-defined and sustain sufficient convection over it, then we will have a tropical depression. The diurnal maximum should reinvigorate convection by early tomorrow morning.



And where are you getting the latest ASCAT pass? The site I'm using doesn't have anything recent.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Its low level structure has made large gains today. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a tropical cyclone tomorrow.


It has. I still expect it to become a tropical cyclone by around tomorrow.
Quoting MississippiWx:


And where are you getting the latest ASCAT pass? The site I'm using doesn't have anything recent.


Quoting MississippiWx:


...and?


Well -- everyone was throwing out Star Trek quotes and I just wanted to Klingon to the bandwagon.
00Z GFS is rolling now at 57H

not looking good for 92E at all on the GFS it appears
Quoting Civicane49:




Okay, never mind. I have that one too. It's still not very recent, though. Still about 10 hours old.
Quoting Civicane49:
92E still needs more work to do; the low-level center remains broad on the latest ASCAT pass and convection has decreased over the center. Once the circulation center is very well-defined and sustain sufficient convection over it, then we will have a tropical depression. The diurnal maximum should reinvigorate convection by early tomorrow morning.



We've all seen this before, I have no doubt 92E will develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow. All it needs is a good DMAX to get it on it's way. That being said, this certainly is a setback for the intensity of 92E because it's going to be shoved into land by 48-52 hours. Time is against 92E, and I doubt it will become anymore than a 50mph TS. If it was a smaller circulation, the cyclonic shape of The Gulf of Tehuantepec could have provided it a significant boost (similar to the BOC).
The latest GFS keeps 92E very weak up to its "landfall" in Mexico. That's definitely a possibility given its proximity to land and large size. Still, it could become a weak cyclone before moving ashore.
567. flsky


Looks like an angry poodle in the upper cloud.
Models in agreement with the intensity until the storm landfall at 36 hours
Quoting flsky:


Looks like an angry poodle in the upper cloud.
It's still amazing seeing it the second time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We've all seen this before, I have no doubt 92E will develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow. All it needs is a good DMAX to get it on it's way. That being said, this certainly is a setback for the intensity of 92E because it's going to be shoved into land by 48-52 hours. Time is against 92E, and I doubt it will become anymore than a 50mph TS. If it was a smaller circulation, the cyclonic shape of The Gulf of Tehuantepec could have provided it a significant boost (similar to the BOC).

agreed 92E need to take in DMax when it arrives which I believe it would but in terms of intensity I'm thinking it may not even make it to 50mph but you never know
coming about
full speed ahead
It's worth noting that Alma in 2008 developed in a similar location (albeit farther east) and intensified fairly quickly, despite having only about a day over water. Don't assume 92E can't get stronger than forecast.
0z GFS at 162 hours:

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

agreed 92E need to take in DMax when it arrives which I believe it would but in terms of intensity I'm thinking it may not even make it to 50mph but you never know
sometimes things can happen
if you look closely at 92E its starting to regain it convection in the COC on the southern edge of the COC and NW of the circulation near the coast and SE of the circulation when Dmax peaks it should give the extra boost to get its renumber/rename



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/SERN IA/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...

VALID 280419Z - 280615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 232.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF SERN NEB AND NERN KS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY...WITH THE THREAT LIKELY TO SHIFT ENTIRELY E OF THE
RIVER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ATTM REMAIN OVER
NERN KS...WHERE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE PERSISTED WITH A FEW OF
THE STRONGER CELLS. SOME WEAKENING HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND GENERALLY THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. STILL...POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD INTO
NWRN MO WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 05/28/2013
XX/XX/XX


I really hope 92E develops, I feel let down every time a disturbance doesn't get classified. Almost as if a friend let me down, except these aren't living beings.
Low pressure developing over the Bay of Campeche by 180 hours on the 0z GFS.

Quoting Astrometeor:
I really hope 92E develops, I feel let down every time a disturbance doesn't get classified. Almost as if a friend let me down, except these aren't living beings.


LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's worth noting that Alma in 2008 developed in a similar location (albeit farther east) and intensified fairly quickly, despite having only about a day over water. Don't assume 92E can't get stronger than forecast.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sometimes things can happen

agree and agree
Regardless of development, 92E is expected to bring very heavy rainfall in parts of the southern Mexico and Guatemala. Heavy rain would result in dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Whatever is left of it would help the development of a potential monsoon low in the northwestern Caribbean or in the Bay of Campeche by early June.
Quoting Astrometeor:
I really hope 92E develops, I feel let down every time a disturbance doesn't get classified. Almost as if a friend let me down, except these aren't living beings.
I feel the same but only when a td is close to be a ts and get named and fail to do it.
It's also worth mentioning that sudden surges of enhanced low-level winds coming off the mountains across this region can sometimes assist in spinning up a circulation. For example, Adrian (2011):

"A band of strong northeasterly low-level winds, emanating from the mountain gap on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, induced a perturbation within the ITCZ near 95W by 2 June."
honestly I don't buy the 00Z GFS run
conditions are going to be good for Caribbean not necessarily for the GOM (ok in GOM but much better in the Caribbean) plus GFS was so very good with consistency with Caribbean system plus the ensembles also agree (currently as well) with Carib system I can kinda see a BOC/GOM system but its more likely to see a GOH/Caribbean system
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
honestly I don't buy the 00Z GFS run
conditions are going to be good for Caribbean not necessarily for the GOM (ok in GOM but much better in the Caribbean) plus GFS was so very good with consistency with Caribbean system plus the ensembles also agree (currently as well) with Carib system I can kinda see a BOC/GOM system but its more likely to see a GOH/Caribbean system
its ok there will be other models yet to run

I haven't seen a ridge this well-established over the western Atlantic in a long time; it's evident in pretty much all of the troposphere up to 200 mb. This one in particular is at the 400 mb level:



Once again, there is no known correlation between atmospheric patterns now and atmospheric patterns during August and September when it actually matters. But this has been the general setup for at a month and a half now (according to this site), and if it continues, this is likely to be another year like 2005 or 2008, where most activity in concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
honestly I don't buy the 00Z GFS run
conditions are going to be good for Caribbean not necessarily for the GOM (ok in GOM but much better in the Caribbean) plus GFS was so very good with consistency with Caribbean system plus the ensembles also agree (currently as well) with Carib system I can kinda see a BOC/GOM system but its more likely to see a GOH/Caribbean system


Honestly I see the solution of the GFS rasonable,GFS is technically transferring the energy of the 92e to the BOC/GOM...
Here comes the Dmax!!!
Quoting stormchaser19:
Here comes the Dmax!!!


Convection is starting to reinvigorate and should allow the low to become a tropical cyclone by tomorrow if the low-level center is also very well-defined.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
honestly I don't buy the 00Z GFS run
conditions are going to be good for Caribbean not necessarily for the GOM (ok in GOM but much better in the Caribbean) plus GFS was so very good with consistency with Caribbean system plus the ensembles also agree (currently as well) with Carib system I can kinda see a BOC/GOM system but its more likely to see a GOH/Caribbean system
Hey buddy you'll get your storm, don't stress. I want a storm over Tampa Bay a good Cat. 1 or 2 Hurricane just to see if the city is ready for the BIG one.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey buddy you'll get your storm, don't stress. I want a storm over Tampa Bay a good Cat. 1 or 2 Hurricane just to see if the city is ready for the BIG one.

?
92E up to 90% while 91E remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DECREASED EARLIER TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
COULD OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. A WESTWARD-DRIFTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
ATCF says 92E is down to 1005 mb. No renumber yet.

EP, 92, 2013052806, , BEST, 0, 134N, 957W, 30, 1005, LO,
90%! Come on Barbara! You can do it!
Quoting Civicane49:
92E up to 90% while 91E remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DECREASED EARLIER TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM
COULD OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. A WESTWARD-DRIFTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

which mean we most likely have TD2 or TS Barbara by sunrise
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 28 2013
===================================

Bay Of Bengal
----------------

The upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal off west Bengal-Odisha coasts extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. Under it influence a low pressure area has formed over northern Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours.

Arabian Sea
------------

The low pressure area over west central Arabian Sea off Oman coast persists. It would move northwestward during the next 24 hours.
Invest 92E:

Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are T1.5/30 mph for 92E.

28/0545 UTC 13.2N 95.5W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific
Quoting Civicane49:
Invest 92E:


starting to look good again
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

starting to look good again


Yep. Convection is continuing to increase on 92E.
Quoting Civicane49:
Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are T1.5/30 mph for 92E.

28/0545 UTC 13.2N 95.5W T1.5/1.5 92E -- East Pacific

so could possibly be TD
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. Convection is continuing to increase on 92E.

on caribbean side it increasing too
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

on caribbean side it increasing too


Quoting Civicane49:



getting real moist
Quoting Civicane49:



caribbean really high just about enough to support a hurricane
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

getting real moist


What is getting really moist?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

getting real moist
More than anyone wanted to know.
Quoting Dakster:


What is getting really moist?

caribbean

anyway I takin a nap cause I fallin off the chair
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

caribbean really high just about enough to support a hurricane


If we're talking strictly about TCHP here, it's probably actually able to support an upper end major hurricane. It really doesn't take as much heat content as you might think; provided other parameters (dry air/instability, wind shear, etc.) are equal, it really doesn't take heat content that is off the charts to start getting category 3 and stronger storms.
deleted... photo wouldn't link


Low-level center of 92E is slowly becoming better defined but still broad on the recent ASCAT pass.

from spaceweather.com
ELECTRON STORM: In the past 24 hours, the flux of high-energy electrons swarming around Earth has increased more than tenfold. The source of this "electron storm" is a 700 km/s stream of solar wind buffeting Earth's magnetic field. NOAA cautions satellite operators that "satellite systems may experience significant charging" in response to accumulated electrons.

I would have to look deeper for a list, but there has been times during this solar cycle that the electrons have been this high
here is just one time from May 2010



Good morning all. This is BahaHurican. I. am trying to fix m phone.so I.can use it to blog. This is not as easy as I was expecting ....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning all. This is BahaHurican. I. am trying to fix m phone.so I.can use it to blog. This is not as easy as I was expecting ....
I think it worked! Lol. We have cooler than average temperature this a.m. and it just started POURING.rain!
Quoting Civicane49:


i see its making way into the GOM!

Link

The Week-2 outlook is based on the expectation of a renewed organization of the MJO with its enhanced phase across the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Although dynamical MJO index forecasts differ on the exact evolution of the MJO signal, models generally agree on the enhanced phase of the MJO centered over the Western Hemisphere. Below average rainfall is expected to continue across the Philippines and expand east across the western Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean, south India, Sri Lanka, and western Africa are expected to become more convectively active which is consistent with MJO precipitation composites. Above average rainfall is likely to persist across the eastern Pacific Ocean, Central America, and shift east into the western Caribbean Sea. Warmer than normal SSTs and enhanced convection maintains elevated chances for tropical cyclone development across the eastern Pacific Ocean. A large scale ridge predicted over the southern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico during Week-2 is expected to reduce wind shear and provide favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Due to the reduced wind shear in an area of enhanced convection, the development of an early season tropical cyclone is favored for the northwest Caribbean Sea. The GFS model has been consistent in developing a potential tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in early June.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

May 2013 now ranks as the 4th wettest in San Juan on record and we may break the record with the wet forecasts until May 31.

MAY 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
AT THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH 12.04" SO FAR. MAY 1936 CONTINUES TO BE
THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WITH 16.87".
Okay... that was ... fun... while it lasted....

Now back to the computer...

Since the weather is inclement, and looks to stay that way for a while, I think I'll have some oatmeal this morning... the big-flaked, fluffy old-fashioned kind cooked in milk with brown sugar, nuts and raisins added...

And a cup of coffee [of course :o)]

You can join me... fixin's on the sideboard... or consult the chef for further meal ideas...

Have a great one! Gotta get out in between the raindrops...
go figure big bend landfalls are rare during cape verde season yet during early season they are almost common
Quoting BahaHurican:
Since the weather is inclement, and looks to stay that way for a while, I think I'll have some oatmeal this morning... the big-flaked, fluffy old-fashioned kind cooked in milk with brown sugar, nuts and raisins added...

And a cup of coffee [of course :o)]

You can join me... fixin's on the sideboard... or consult the chef for further meal ideas...

Have a great one! Gotta get out in between the raindrops...


I've recently found I'm carbohydrate intolerant, so no oatmeal, bread, muffins, biscuits, potatoes for me. Not even having fruit or milk.

This morning, I had two boiled eggs and a bowl of prawn cocktail. I'm not trying to lose weight, but I've lost about 7lbs in the two months I've been off carbs.
92E...

92E looks like it could be TS Barbara(40 mph)

also looks like its moving ENE-NE I'm not sure if thats just the convection or its actual movement
Florida is in for a very serious rain event over the next 2 weeks as deep tropical moisture gets pulled up into FL from 92E.


I've seen some models showing 25" to 28" of rain across FL over the next 2 weeks. This is something that really needs to be watched as this is a very dangerous flood set up for FL especially as many areas across eastern FL has already had a very wet April and May.

5 day precip accum GGEM
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I've seen some models showing 25" to 28" of rain across FL over the next 2 weeks. This is something that really needs to be watched as this is a very dangerous flood set up for FL especially as many areas across eastern FL has already had a very wet April and May.



Wow..the bahamas about to take a licking and hopefully keep on ticking..
Euro is finally onboard with a system forming in the NW Caribbean.

The CMC starting at 120 hours.









You can already see convection gathering in the NW Caribbean.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-282330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY
TODAY PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS EXCEPT THE TAMPA
BAY THROUGH MID MORNING. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN EASTERLY SURGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS BACK INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES HIGH ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHERE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL




WPC is considering the CMC as an outlier..from their 2am discussion

THE 12Z CMC IS AN OUTLIER WITH ERN TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE VAST MINORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH ITS
ERN GULF SYSTEM THAT GETS CAPTURED BY ITS AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGH.
I see 92E is still it.. maybe upgrade by 11Am as NHC hints.

Would this system (regardless of development) enhance development of a new system in the western Caribbean as some people here call for...

Something like. Alma-Arthur in 2008...

sorry, not been on top of the updates lately
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You can already see convection gathering in the NW Caribbean.


I know
Are the Tampa Shields down this year?

Almost a TD.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You can already see convection gathering in the NW Caribbean.



So it's going to be a typical monsoon low formation cyclonic low?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I see 92E is still it.. maybe upgrade by 11Am as NHC hints.

Would this system (regardless of development) enhance development of a new system in the western Caribbean as some people here call for...

Something like. Alma-Arthur in 2008...

sorry, not been on top of the updates lately

yep yep yep
6z GFS




Africa..

GFS Ensembles precip accum

1-5 day


6-10 day


11-15 day
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
.

The 06Z and 00Z cranking out some huge totals, Scott!

GFS Ensembles 240hrs thru 276hrs




Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Almost a TD.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.




If anyone wants it, here is a link to the Mexico RADAR Network. Link
The Gulf is ready for business!

Hang on gWPB - looks like you may be getting hammered in a bit.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Looks like some heavy rain rolling in your direction.
Heavy rain for the Bahamas this week.

Quoting Dakster:
Hang on gWPB - looks like you may be getting hammered in a bit.


We are getting heavy rain now in FLL.
A view from New Smyrna Beach yesterday. What a great weekend it was to get outdoors in C FL.


Good Morning Guys
Quoting Grothar:


We are getting heavy rain now in FLL.


Raining here too and has been most of the night, but not 'HEAVY'.
Quoting Dakster:


Raining here too and has been most of the night, but not 'HEAVY'.

Just wait.
Good Morning... things are starting to shape up just in time for the start of the Hurricane season in 4 days.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... things are starting to shape up just in time for the start of the Hurricane season in 4 days.


Good morning buddy. Yeah looks like we maybe starting Hurricane Season with a bang this year.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I've seen some models showing 25" to 28" of rain across FL over the next 2 weeks. This is something that really needs to be watched as this is a very dangerous flood set up for FL especially as many areas across eastern FL has already had a very wet April and May.

5 day precip accum GGEM


Hey Scott, I just scrolled down and saw this. I don't think we could handle 25-28 inches in such a short time. Wow.
12z JMA at its last frame of 144 hours

Our weather in cayman is good fully welcomed heavy downpours and gustys winds though need more rain the water on the ground is already starting to dry up
Landfall as a weak Cat 1 or strong TS likely.

Quoting ncstorm:
12z JMA at its last frame of 144 hours


How reliable is that model?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Scott, I just scrolled down and saw this. I don't we could handle 25-28 inches in such a short time. Wow.


Yeah the GFS and GGEM models have been showing very high rainfall totals across FL starting later this week thru early next week.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Landfall as a weak Cat 1 or strong TS likely.


Nah
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Scott, I just scrolled down and saw this. I don't we could handle 25-28 inches in such a short time. Wow.

Bottom line. You can't handle that.
679. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

Water Vapour Imagery from RAMMB



Quoting SouthernIllinois:

How reliable is that model?


It has its ups and down like the rest of the models..it does okay from what I've seen..only has a run of 72 hours on the 00z run and on the 12z run it goes out to 144 hours..
Quoting ncstorm:


It has its ups and down like the rest of the models..it does okay from what I've seen..only has a run of 72 hours on the 00z run and on the 12z run it goes out to 144 hours..

Thanks, ncstorm. Here's to hoping that particular run you posted is right. That has it bringing some nice rain into Southern Illinois.
NOAA is forecast much above normal rainfall across FL. This is impressive as June is normally very wet anyway as Orlando averages 7.50" of rain for June.

NHC Marine Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 280751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE GFS DEVELOPS GRID-SCALE
FEEDBACK ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA. FROM 00Z THU TO 00Z FRI...THE GFS GENERATES COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE BAHAMAS. LESS THAN HALF OF THIS
PRECIPITATION CAN BE ACCOUNTED FOR BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. AS A
RESULT OF THE FEEDBACK...THE GFS BUILDS 30 KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF ITS AMPLIFYING SURFACE TROUGH.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Good morning buddy. Yeah looks like we maybe starting Hurricane Season with a bang this year.



Hi Storm... will be interesting.
Quoting WxLogic:


Hi Storm... will be interesting.


How much rain have you received so far this May? I have a received 6.45" so far this month but I suspect more has fallen just to my west over by you as there were some storms that set up over the Rock Springs area down to Apopka that dumped 3" to 4" of rain a day.
25-28* of rain over my area over the next two weeks? my room will therefore be underwater......
Fascinating article on weather anthropology! Link
Quoting Thrawst:
25-28* of rain over my area over the next two weeks? my room will therefore be underwater......


this was yesterday's 12Z GGEM

Good Morning. Hope everyone had a good Holiday Weekend. Now let's get back to work........
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
NOAA is forecast much above normal rainfall across FL. This is impressive as June is normally very wet anyway as Orlando averages 7.50" of rain for June.


Guess I'd better buy some Snickers, I won't be going anywhere for awhile if that happens. My house will stay dry...the street, not so much.

Look at 4:53 pm yesterday at Tucson International. This is the biggest dewpoint depression I have ever seen in my meteorological career. 96 degrees over -13 Td. Thats a 109 degrees DpD and a humidity of 1%.

Link

Although I guess Las Vegas had an even larger DpD in 2011 - 129 degrees

Link

I guess it really is a "dry" heat !!
Stormy morning across C Michigan.

Not sure if this has been posted. Sean Casey got this yesterday 27th May.



Watch at 2:07 for the sparks on the windscreen.
climatology says but the weather strange things going on.
This is probably the first video I've seen from inside an powerful tornado. So, that's what it's like from inside an violent tornado... nothing but darkness and winds. Kudos to TIV2 crew! They tweeted that the IMAX footage looks great! Wind speeds were 150 to 175 EF3 to EF4 before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2.


EDIT: Aussie beat me by 3 minutes. However, I'm leaving comment above there.


699. DDR
Good morning
4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours in Trinidad and 4-6 more by weekend.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
This is probably the first video I've seen from inside an powerful tornado. So, that's what it's like from inside an violent tornado... nothing but darkness and winds. Kudos to TIV2 crew! They tweeted that the IMAX footage looks great! Wind speeds were 150 to 175 EF3 to EF4 before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2.


EDIT: Aussie beat me by 3 minutes. However, I'm leaving comment above there.




LOL, But did you see the flash/spark about 2:07?
Here is the rather long but good am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean Desk breaking down all of the waves, trofs, and precip in the Caribbean and South America. Lot's of mention of the current waves traversing the Atlantic as the "first" ones......They are currently running into SA and moving along SA into the lower Caribbean and E-Pac. Very active ITCZ/Monsoon Trof so far and it will be slowly lifting North in the coming months as we head towards the Cape Verde season in August.........It's always the same.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
47W 51W 54W 58W 61W 64W 68W TW
55W 59W 63W 67W 70W 73W 76W TW
84W 86W 89W 91W 93W 95W 97W EW

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 48W. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MOISTURE SURGE. THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS ON DAYS 01 AND 02.AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA ON DAY 03.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W IS LOSING DEFINITION WHILE ENTERING SOUTH AMERICA. STILL...THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE GUIANAS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ON DAY 02...AND EASTERN/CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON DAY 03.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 84W WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE CYCLE. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER COSTA RICA ON DAY 01. ON DAY 02 FOCUS WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA/NICARACUA/SOUTHERN HONDURAS. ON DAY 03 HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.



Link
I love the rain coming!!:)
Well over the last 7 days Illinois farmers loving the rain, although folk in the Western part of Illinois are probably not needing anymore in the short term. I myself dumped 1.5" over Memorial day weekend.

Much of the state is running 4-8" above average year-to-date, putting most places in 25-50% above average at 20-25". Shocking how we couldn't 5" of rain in 10 months last year and now we are picking up that 20-25" in just 5 months.



I say by 11AM we are going to have a TS or TD

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Well over the last 7 days Illinois farmers loving the rain, although folk in the Western part of Illinois are probably not needing anymore in the short term. I myself dumped 1.5" over Memorial day weekend.




Much of the state is running 8" above average year-to-date, putting most places in 25-50% above average at 20-25". Shocking how we couldn't 5" of rain in 10 months last year and now we are picking up that 20-25" in just 5 months.




Tell me about it. Weather Whiplash at it's finest. :-(
That maybe forming low looks interesting off SEFL This frame (which will change) is scary with the top missing & lines through it..Stay strong GOES14..

92E looks rather elongated.


CLICK FOR LOOP
Mornin' all...

Does anyone know of a (free) software program to manually record daily rainfall amounts? I've been looking online for the last hour and came up with zip!
Quoting Skyepony:
That maybe forming low looks interesting off SEFL This frame (which will change) is scary with the top missing & lines through it..Stay strong on GOES14..


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I say by 11AM we are going to have a TS or TD


Yep seem that way
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Old image should be updated today
I love accuweather they have a TD or TS coming to S FL
Gusts: 37 mph
Storms are rather persistent this morning from Decatur, IL southwestward to St. Louis, MO.

One of the CMC Ensemble lol 240HR out
Link
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


How much rain have you received so far this May? I have a received 6.45" so far this month but I suspect more has fallen just to my west over by you as there were some storms that set up over the Rock Springs area down to Apopka that dumped 3" to 4" of rain a day.


5.29' inches so far in May. Those storms missed me by 1 to 2 miles LOL.
Well, I guess that "slight risk" of severe weather this week has gone by the board as here in SW Wisconsin we are looking at 4 days of severe with Tor Con on Thursday of 5. God, I hate tornadoes. Give me a good old CA earthquake any day!

Meow.
Doesn't look like we'll get a TD at 11AM, no renumber on the ATCF site.
Skies beginning to clear out here in Southern Illinois this morning on the way to a very warm high of 88 degrees with winds picking up by this afternoon. Not too concerned at the moment since all the major parameters with the vegetation and soil conditions look fairly good so far this month.













Quoting WetCats:
Well, I guess that "slight risk" of severe weather this week has gone by the board as here in SW Wisconsin we are looking at 4 days of severe with Tor Con on Thursday of 5. God, I hate tornadoes. Give me a good old CA earthquake any day!

Meow.


There's a Torcon 7 for Oklahoma Wednesday. Today, it's mostly 5s for quite a big area. The advice is that Torcon warnings could rise as the meteorology becomes clearer. Possibility of a tornado outbreak over a wide area, from Texas to the Great Lakes.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Stormy morning across C Michigan.


Supposed to get more stormy later today up here as severe storms should fire today. Slight risk for tornadoes, wind, and hail today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Doesn't look like we'll get a TD at 11AM, no renumber on the ATCF site.

it could still happen I remember a few times when they change their minds and renumber just before an advisory was put out so don't be surprised
92E will only make it to minimal tropical storm status at most. It's still having issues with organization and the circulation is elongated, and it's running out of time to intensify before making landfall.
I still don't get why the Canadian shows "Andrea" June 2nd/3rd while the GFS has been showing her on June 4th/5th/6th. Just shows there is still disagreement with the timing and development of the storm. Anything on the Euro lately, regarding development?
Quoting yonzabam:


There's a Torcon 7 for Oklahoma Wednesday. Today, it's mostly 5s for quite a big area. The advice is that Torcon warnings could rise as the meteorology becomes clearer. Possibility of a tornado outbreak over a wide area, from Texas to the Great Lakes.


oh man, we were quite used to the quiet spring we were having . . .
thanks for the heads up.
My Forecast for 92E
92E's circulation is not as well-defined as I thought now that I have visible satellite imagery to work with. It still has some time, but not much of it.
730. beell
Quoting mikatnight:
Mornin' all...

Does anyone know of a (free) software program to manually record daily rainfall amounts? I've been looking online for the last hour and came up with zip!


Maybe?

Quoting mikatnight:
Mornin' all...

Does anyone know of a (free) software program to manually record daily rainfall amounts? I've been looking online for the last hour and came up with zip!


To manually record rainfall, wouldn't any spreadsheet program do?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
My Forecast for 92E


Could it's remnants cross and reform as Andrea>?
Quoting daddyjames:


oh man, we were quite used to the quiet spring we were having . . .
thanks for the heads up.


Actually, I just had another look at the video on weather.com, and the Torcon 7 is for east/central Kansas on Wednesday.

Check out the video forecast hereTornado threat for Tuesday to Friday
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Could it's remnants cross and reform as Andrea>?



if it reform and its low still intac it will still have the same name it will not be Andrea
Quoting mikatnight:
Mornin' all...

Does anyone know of a (free) software program to manually record daily rainfall amounts? I've been looking online for the last hour and came up with zip!


Of course, if you want to go old school, paper and those wooden things they call pencils work well also. hard to keep the paper dry if its raining to hard though . . .
Good morning all.

Invest 92E continues to struggle with its large size. Convection isn't really consolidated, and the storm's low-level center remains [relatively] poorly defined and elongated. The majority of the model guidance shows it intensifying into a mid-grade tropical storm prior to landfall, but this is too bullish. If this is designated, and it may not ever be given its current state, it won't achieve an intensity higher than a minimal tropical storm.



Click to enlarge.
Quoting yonzabam:


Actually, I just had another look at the video on weather.com, and the Torcon 7 is for east/central Kansas on Wednesday.

Check out the video forecast hereTornado threat for Tuesday to Friday


Well, I would breathe a sigh of relief, but no ill will towards Kansans(?).
Quoting ncstorm:
Click to enlarge.



i see a 1008MB low thats about too come off affica
Quoting KoritheMan:
92E's circulation is not as well-defined as I thought now that I have visible satellite imagery to work with. It still has some time, but not much of it.


Yeah. GFS forecast for a hurricane is going to bust. The southwesterly monsoon flow's target for convergence is not 92E's center, but an area near the coast of southeast Mexico. A recent microwave pass confirms that 92E's structure is not robust enough to consolidate the elongated surface trough with any kind of haste.

If you're a spreadsheet maniac guru like myself, take my advice. Pay the little extra and get Microsoft Excel or Lotis 1-2-3.

But if it's just a very basic use of spreadsheets, you probably could get by with Open Office.
Gulf an area to watch.

Quoting daddyjames:


To manually record rainfall, wouldn't any spreadsheet program do?


Yeah, I know. I was looking for something with some cool graphics - different quick views, something specifically designed for such. I guess everything is set up for automatic data gathering through personal weather stations.

I just figured there would be something for fools like me with just a couple of $5 rain gauges who don't want (or know how) to make a graph in Excel or whatever. Something fancy! Oh well, back to the drawing board...

Thanks for replying!
Today's UV Outlook: Don't forget the sunscreen if you don't wish to tan or burn.

Quoting mikatnight:
Mornin' all...

Does anyone know of a (free) software program to manually record daily rainfall amounts? I've been looking online for the last hour and came up with zip!


ok, all kidding aside - here is some old forum posts that might point you in the right direction:

What would be the Best FREE weather software?
Just watched the video of TIV2 intercepting the violent tornado in north-central Kansas last night. The crew measured peak winds of 175 mph (mid-grade EF4) before the tornado ripped the instrument off their vehicle. Apparently the doors weren't latched closed correctly, so they ripped open and debris was blown into the TIV. The crew is lucky this tornado hadn't hit anything significant...pieces of wood from houses moving at 175 mph+ would probably do some damage.

But anyways, definitely the best video of a tornado intercept I've ever seen.

Precipitable water is the highest I have seen in weeks over Central Illinois. Could spell some heavy totals coming in as the GFS is continuing to suggest.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
92E will only make it to minimal tropical storm status at most. It's still having issues with organization and the circulation is elongated, and it's running out of time to intensify before making landfall.
I still don't get why the Canadian shows "Andrea" June 2nd/3rd while the GFS has been showing her on June 4th/5th/6th. Just shows there is still disagreement with the timing and development of the storm. Anything on the Euro lately, regarding development?


Lowering of pressures around the time the GFS is forecasting development, a good sign towards potential development.
Good morning all,

It was a wonderfully wet weekend here in the Austin area with anywhere from 1.5" to 5" depending on location. Thank you rain gods. It looks like this week may be a busy one for the Central US with a possible severe outbreak again as well as with 92E. Could we possibly get Andrea from 92E? Def worth keeping an eye on.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just watched the video of TIV2 intercepting the violent tornado in north-central Kansas last night. The crew measured peak winds of 175 mph (mid-grade EF4) before the tornado ripped the instrument off their vehicle. Apparently the doors weren't latched closed correctly, so they ripped open and debris was blown into the TIV. The crew is lucky this tornado hadn't hit anything significant...pieces of wood from houses moving at 175 mph+ would probably do some damage.

But anyways, definitely the best video of a tornado intercept I've ever seen.



I wonder at what point instruments were ripped off the vehicle, winds could have approached 190-200mph judging by the insanity of that video.
20E is lowering Carribean pressures even further. Making thunderstorms more easy to fire up there.
Quoting ncstorm:
Click to enlarge.


No waves in the map.
Article on BBC News:
"Centuries-old frozen plants revived
Eastern margin of the Tear Drop glacier Glacier retreat has markedly accelerated in the period since 2004 - and many new species lie beneath. Plants that were frozen during the "Little Ice Age" centuries ago have been observed sprouting new growth, scientists say."
Article Link



"Feed Me!"
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lowering of pressures around the time the GFS is forecasting development, a good sign towards potential development.

Any model run pictures? Is Allan huffmans site fixed?
wind shear is still high







Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just watched the video of TIV2 intercepting the violent tornado in north-central Kansas last night. The crew measured peak winds of 175 mph (mid-grade EF4) before the tornado ripped the instrument off their vehicle. Apparently the doors weren't latched closed correctly, so they ripped open and debris was blown into the TIV. The crew is lucky this tornado hadn't hit anything significant...pieces of wood from houses moving at 175 mph+ would probably do some damage.

But anyways, definitely the best video of a tornado intercept I've ever seen.

INTENSE! How did they keep from getting tossed?
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, I know. I was looking for something with some cool graphics - different quick views, something specifically designed for such. I guess everything is set up for automatic data gathering through personal weather stations.

I just figured there would be something for fools like me with just a couple of $5 rain gauges who don't want (or know how) to make a graph in Excel or whatever. Something fancy! Oh well, back to the drawing board...

Thanks for replying!


So what exactly were you looking for? Do you have Excel? In my offtime I could (maybe) create a template that you could feed information into and give you what you want.
I don't trust the GEM model.

Look at what it is forecasting, a 992 MB low in the plains giving birth to a gigantic tornado outbreak.


IR Hovmoller diagram suggests that a tropical wave is over the western Sahel poised to exit Africa within the next day or two.

Click for full size:

Quoting JNTenne:
INTENSE! How did they keep from getting tossed?

It's a 16,000 pound vehicle with six (previously had 6, but reduced down to 2) two spikes that can anchor themselves 40" into the ground to prevent wind from getting underneath the vehicle during a tornado intercept.
Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear is still high









but its lower in the W Caribbean than in the GOM and the shear is falling in the W Caribbean tendency is -10tk
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, I know. I was looking for something with some cool graphics - different quick views, something specifically designed for such. I guess everything is set up for automatic data gathering through personal weather stations.

I just figured there would be something for fools like me with just a couple of $5 rain gauges who don't want (or know how) to make a graph in Excel or whatever. Something fancy! Oh well, back to the drawing board...

Thanks for replying!


Hey, here is a template for excel already available:

Weather graph excel template
The cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific continues. See the CPC update below.

Climate Prediction Center 5/28/13 update
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific continues. See the CPC update below.

Climate Prediction Center 5/28/13 update


More storms for the Atlantic.
Quoting daddyjames:


So what exactly were you looking for? Do you have Excel? In my offtime I could (maybe) create a template that you could feed information into and give you what you want.


Yeah, I've got Excel, and I do know how to make a chart, but...

Quoting daddyjames:
Quoting mikatnight:


Yeah, I know. I was looking for something with some cool graphics - different quick views, something specifically designed for such. I guess everything is set up for automatic data gathering through personal weather stations.

I just figured there would be something for fools like me with just a couple of $5 rain gauges who don't want (or know how) to make a graph in Excel or whatever. Something fancy! Oh well, back to the drawing board...

Thanks for replying!


Hey, here is a template for excel already available:

Weather graph excel template


Hey, thanks!

Got a service call - see y'all later...
132HR
767. VR46L
92E.INVEST, IR, 28 MAY 2013 1245Z NRL Site


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

VALID 12Z FRI MAY 31 2013 - 12Z TUE JUN 04 2013


NOT MUCH IN THE MODELS WITH WHICH TO QUIBBLE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE.
THE ECENS AND CMCE MEANS HAVE BEEN ON THE SAME PAGE THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL CYCLES, AND ARE BROADLY SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/28
UKMET. THE GEFS MEANS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SOUTH OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THE DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST--WITH THE 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWING THE SAME
DISTINCTION FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS.
RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS
AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-7, WITH A MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE
ATTENDANT ECENS MEAN TO MITIGATE THE MYRIAD OF PLACEMENT AND
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NUANCED SURFACE FEATURES.

AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FUEL THE PRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD,
SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS
COLD-FRONT-ATTENDANT CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN STATES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH NEW RAINFALL BLOSSOMING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE VULNERABLE TO RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN
THE JUICY, EASTERLY FLOW THERE.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Any model run pictures? Is Allan huffmans site fixed?


00z ECMWF 240 hours.
Quoting JNTenne:
Article on BBC News:
"Centuries-old frozen plants revived
Eastern margin of the Tear Drop glacier Glacier retreat has markedly accelerated in the period since 2004 - and many new species lie beneath. Plants that were frozen during the "Little Ice Age" centuries ago have been observed sprouting new growth, scientists say."
Article Link



"Feed Me!"


Part of what we cannot predict with Climate Change. We are gaining new species!

I am grateful for dedicated scientists on the job observing, describing, and classifying...it remains to be seen, the impact of new growth.
Quoting daddyjames:


Methinks they have been reading Levi's Tropical Tidbits!


I aint even touching that one..LOL
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

VALID 12Z FRI MAY 31 2013 - 12Z TUE JUN 04 2013


NOT MUCH IN THE MODELS WITH WHICH TO QUIBBLE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE.
THE ECENS AND CMCE MEANS HAVE BEEN ON THE SAME PAGE THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL CYCLES, AND ARE BROADLY SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/28
UKMET. THE GEFS MEANS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SOUTH OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THE DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST--WITH THE 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWING THE SAME
DISTINCTION FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS.
RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS
AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-7, WITH A MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE
ATTENDANT ECENS MEAN TO MITIGATE THE MYRIAD OF PLACEMENT AND
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE NUANCED SURFACE FEATURES.

AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FUEL THE PRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD,
SOAKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS
COLD-FRONT-ATTENDANT CONVECTION SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN STATES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH NEW RAINFALL BLOSSOMING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE VULNERABLE TO RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN
THE JUICY, EASTERLY FLOW THERE.


love the descriptive adjectives in the new discussion..
Hurricane Preparation 2013




It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.


I did a blog.



Quoting ncstorm:


I aint even touching that one..LOL


Was the "Methinks" a bit too much?
SAL (Dust) HAS ARRIVED in the LEEWARDS! Means the hurricane season is about to begin BUT also boring weather with all the rain staying south of us (I'm not happy)...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just watched the video of TIV2 intercepting the violent tornado in north-central Kansas last night. The crew measured peak winds of 175 mph (mid-grade EF4) before the tornado ripped the instrument off their vehicle. Apparently the doors weren't latched closed correctly, so they ripped open and debris was blown into the TIV. The crew is lucky this tornado hadn't hit anything significant...pieces of wood from houses moving at 175 mph+ would probably do some damage.

But anyways, definitely the best video of a tornado intercept I've ever seen.

Looks like lots of grass flying, but there does appear to be a racoon fly by at the 1:40 mark.
April 2013 was the globe's 13th warmest April


and March coldest on record for 70 years or more.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/tvengineer/comme nt.html?entrynum=15
Quoting daddyjames:


Methinks they have been reading Levi's Tropical Tidbits!

Yeah...that's been a recurring problem the past few years.
Has that June appearance.
784.

Another one?

LoL
790. wxmod

north pole cam
Quoting Grothar:
I did a blog.





Tis the season is almost upon us where we shall see many blogs of blobs and possibly blobs of blogs :)
12z GFS at 30 hours has moderate TS Barbara making landfall.

Quoting VR46L:
92E.INVEST, IR, 28 MAY 2013 1245Z NRL Site



It appears to have developed enough to become a TD.

By the way, there is a new invest, 94B.

94B



92E

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.


INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

92E
RGB Loop



94B was declared 3 days ago.
At least 1.5 inches of rain has fallen so far in my location. Looks to be never-stopping
Quoting Patrap:
94B was declared 3 days ago.


Yea, but it looks alot better now than it did.
Remember this? Link

Well I'm afraid if this GFS run from the 12Z pans out, we could be looking at a repeat. Link

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
.


? xD

I saw this and nothing else...
Just on the blog for a few minutes, and probably it has already been posted. But can someone provide the link for last night's TVV intercept? TIA

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting wxmod:

north pole cam
water on the cam today good sign means its wet
Quoting Torito:


? xD

I saw this and nothing else...

Sorry! Was in the process of modifying post and you caught me with my pants down!!! :D
What is up with the mid-section? TX and FL are looking much better!
Okay, I am officially impressed. Thanks for the post Dr. Masters.
92E really starting to tighten up in the past few hours with convection firing near the coc.....they will probably call a depression or low grade tropical storm within the next hour or two.
Wrong blog