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NOAA, TSR, UKMET, PSU, WSI, and WU Community Predict Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:11 PM GMT on May 24, 2013

NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their May 23 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% - 205% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16.5 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 162% of normal. This is well above the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. Only five seasons since the active hurricane period that began in 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Sandy was the only other major Atlantic hurricane of 2012. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were 0.4°C above average, and were 0.33°C above the oceans in the remainder of the global tropics. Long-range seasonal computer model forecasts predict a continuation of above-average SSTs in the MDR during much of hurricane season.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

3) No El Niño event is expected this year. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Neutral conditions have been present since last summer, and are predicted to remain neutral through hurricane season by most of the El Niño computer forecast models.

NOAA said, "This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2013 hurricane season could see activity comparable to some of the very active seasons since 1995." NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts. These models include the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model CM2.1, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model, the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office model, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble.


Figure 2. Graphic from the 2013 NOAA Atlantic hurricane season forecast highlighting the reasons for this year's anticipated active character.

How accurate are NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 3. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) for the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2003-2012, as a function of lead time. Forecast precision is assessed using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) which is the percentage improvement in mean square error over a climatology forecast (six hurricanes in a given year.) Positive skill indicates that the model performs better than climatology, while a negative skill indicates that it performs worse than climatology. Two different climatologies are used: a fixed 50-year (1950-1999) climatology, and a running prior 10-year climate norm. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May, and CSU stopped providing quantitative extended-range December hurricane outlooks in 2011. Skill climbs as the hurricane season approaches, with modest skill levels by early June, and good skill levels by early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

TSR predicts an active hurricane season: 15.3 named storms
The May 24 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 15.3 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 3.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--11% - 25% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 63% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 21% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these late May forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 8% - 12% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and slower than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.

UKMET office predicts a slightly above normal Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.

WSI predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The April 8 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for an active season with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

Penn State predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19

The wunderground community predicts an active hurricane season: 17 named storms
Over 100 members of the wunderground community have submitted their seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are compiled on trHUrrIXC5MMX's blog. The April 28 version of this list called for an average of 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. This list will be updated by June 3, so get your forecasts in by then! As usual, I am abstaining from making a hurricane season forecast. I figure there's no sense making a forecast that will be wrong nearly half the time; I prefer to stick to higher-probability forecasts.



NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 13.5 named storms
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 - 16 named storms, 5 - 8 hurricanes, 1 - 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% - 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2013, there has already been one named storm. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25.

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 2 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 - 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

The week ahead: 91E, and a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
We're already behind last year's pace for named storms in both the Atlantic (where Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19, and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26), and in the Eastern Pacific, where Bud formed on May 21 (the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm.) The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific. The MJO is relatively weak, but is helping boost the chances that Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific will develop. On Friday, NHC was giving 91E a 20% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models were predicting that a weak circulation off the coast of Costa Rica, well east of the separate circulation currently called 91E, could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This system is a threat to spread heavy rains to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Guatemala on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS model is showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.) The prospects for an early June named storm in the Atlantic are probably above average, though, given that the MJO may be active in the Atlantic during the first week of June.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting MississippiWx:
've yet to see any information or proof that AGW is changing the strength/frequency of strong to violent tornadoes.
I didn't say there was any; I'm simply cautioning about using the results of a necessarily unscientific retroactive analysis of decades-old twisters to provide evidence of anything other than the fact that the US gets a lot of tornadoes....
Quoting Neapolitan:
I didn't say there was any; I'm simply cautioning about using the results of a necessarily unscientific retroactive analysis of decades-old twisters to provide evidence of anything other than the fact that the US gets a lot of tornadoes....


I see. Well, that makes sense, but it's the only information that we have to use. I think there is quite a bit of proof of other weather phenomenons changing (extreme weather events), but I just don't see much of any change with tornadoes. I'm assuming this will be an area of study for climate scientists for the next several years.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I see. Well, that makes sense, but it's the only information that we have to use. I think there is quite a bit of proof of other weather phenomenons changing (extreme weather events), but I just don't see much of any change with tornadoes. I'm assuming this will be an area of study for climate scientists for the next several years.


Tornadoes are complicated. Warmer, moister air from the GOM would enhance cyclogenesis, but scientists expect warmer conditions to cause less shear, which would inhibit rotation of supercells.

However, recent developments with the jet stream could herald a new regime. The jet stream will contribute to the tornadoes that are expected on Wednesday/Thursday. There could be an outbreak.

Watch this space.
Levi, what to you make of the 12z ECMWF having a big gyre in the BOC different from GFS which is in Western Caribbean?
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather2 min
Growing concern for severe thunderstorms to develop soon across western and central Nebraska. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/severe-weather
A more erratic jet stream may favor more tornadoes, yes, but wind shear is just one part of the equation. That's like saying with a moister environment, hurricanes will become more frequent. It depends on more...wind shear, sea surface temperatures, etc. In the case of tornadoes, instability, moisture, etc.
Reed Timmer‏@reedtimmerTVN32 min
Supercells will fire this afternoon ~sfc low in sw NE, any that track along warm front will have tornado potential Link
nice clear shot of james bay Hudson bay regions

you can see the ice melt

1010. yqt1001
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice clear shot of james bay Hudson bay regions

you can see the ice melt



Very nice and warm in Northern Ontario today. :)

17C here in Thunder Bay.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Building codes are better than they were decades ago, but it doesn't matter when you're dealing with EF4 and EF5 tornadoes. I don't know if we have any buildings on the planet that can withstand winds of an EF5 (winds >200 mph).


I find it strange to me that people stubbornly continue to think its possible to just make our cities "tornado proof" such individuals are living in fiction. First of all, there have been many of strong reinforced structures destroyed by violent tornadoes, the recent Moore tornado is just one example.
I would also think the death of those children in the school in Moore would be enough to wake people up who insist that such structures are tornado safe. Those schools were built very strong, above building code. When the NWS says being above ground in such a tornado is not safe, they mean it, because they know the results, and they know the science.

Additionally, while making all structures much stronger would certainly help reduce total damage especially for tornadoes of lower power, it would not spare destruction. More importantly, the cost would be immense and isn't practical.

So why is this really not feasible?

#1 even strong structures succumb to high end tornadoes,contrary to the continued stubborn belief that they don't despite plenty of evidence from actual tornado impacts.

#2 the cost would be astronomically high


Last I checked we aren't all millionaires.

Bottom line is, there should be more underground cellars built and things of that sort to save lives. However, we can't stop the destruction.
Pardon me for a question...

Chris Landsea of the NHC (if you gotta name like that, reckon that's a good place to work!) wrote that the 1928 Hurricane's "Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) was about 30 nm, which is roughly equivalent to an eye diameter of 40 nm."

That seems confusing to me as I thought the eye diameter would be smaller than the RMW...

Does anyone know the formula for finding the eye diameter from the RMW figure? For instance, the '47 Ft. Lauderdale C4 hurricane at landfall had a RMW of 20 nm. So, the eye is what? Do I just add 10 miles? I think I'm missing something.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You can throw out a good portion of pre-1974 tornadoes classified as "violent" in that graph. The farther one goes back in time before that period, the more years had passed between the event and the analysis. It's often difficult enough nowadays for experts on the scene just hours after a tornado has passed to accurately assign it a Fujita number; it's exponentially more difficult to do that based only on the hazy memories of folks who witnessed the twister, and a handful of yellowed newspaper clippings written about it. By their own admission, both Fujita and Tom Grazulis (of The Tornado Project) are on record as having stated that there wasn't much skill at all in rating tornadoes that had taken place years or even decades before they looked at them. IOW: that chart is only valid back until about 1970. (That's not to say there were no vicious twisters back then, but there were probably fewer than the retroactively-applied Fujita ratings show.)







May 21, 2013
In 1975 Deadly Tornadoes Based on Global Cooling
The tragic deaths in Oklahoma will be used be Global Warming attacks as prima facie evidence that Global Warming is real and the government needs to do something about it. That will mean, of course, a loss of freedoms and more taxes to pay.

History and facts can be irritating to people who have an agenda to feed. These agenda pushers feed on ignorance. The less people know, the easier they are to control.
In 1975, an article was published that blamed Global Cooling for weird and destructive weather.

“There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

“The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April [1974], in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.

“To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century
of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

The last paragraph of the article is predictable. The government was called on to do something. One proposal was to melt the Arctic ice cap:


“Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.”


From the April 28, 1975 issue of NEWSWEEK magazine.
Double Post.
Quoting yqt1001:


Very nice and warm in Northern Ontario today. :)

17C here in Thunder Bay.
same here clear blue sky means another cool night but nice warm days starts to get warmer for us in southern ont tue onward may be near 85 or 29 by Friday
1017. Levi32
The CFS says a long-term cyclonic low-level flow regime is in store for the western Caribbean, SW Atlantic, and GOM. I'm hoping to make these types of images public soon.

CFS-v2 zonal (east-west component) 10m wind anomaly for Weeks 2 and 3 (average of last 48 forecasts):

Week 2:



Week 3:

Quoting Levi32:
The CFS says a long-term cyclonic regime is in store for the western Caribbean, SW Atlantic, and GOM. I'm hoping to make these types of images public soon.

CFS-v2 zonal (east-west component) 10m wind anomaly for Weeks 2 and 3 (average of last 48 forecasts):

Week 2:



Week 3:



Should really allow the MDR to warm where convection is absent.
1019. beell
Nice work, Levi.
Quoting yqt1001:


Very nice and warm in Northern Ontario today. :)

17C here in Thunder Bay.


here is a better vis image for ya

1021. Thrawst
An awesome video discussing what "if" things happened differently in our past... including a brief discussion on why weather predictions are nearly impossible to be certain of just a week in advance.

VIDEO!
No takers on post 1012? Must be a toughy.
Anyway, here's the link for that HURDAT file. Scroll down about halfway (pdf page 12). In case anyone's interested, both the '47 & the '49 Florida majors have had their max sustained winds downgraded considerably - though they both maintained their Cat 4 status (barely).
Levi,go back to post 1005 as I have a question.
Quoting Thrawst:
An awesome video discussing what "if" things happened differently in our past... including a brief discussion on why weather predictions are nearly impossible to be certain of just a week in advance.

VIDEO!


If—
BY RUDYARD KIPLING

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
Quoting mikatnight:
Pardon me for a question...

Chris Landsea of the NHC (if you gotta name like that, reckon that's a good place to work!) wrote that the 1928 Hurricane's "Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) was about 30 nm, which is roughly equivalent to an eye diameter of 40 nm."

That seems confusing to me as I thought the eye diameter would be smaller than the RMW...

Does anyone know the formula for finding the eye diameter from the RMW figure? For instance, the '47 Ft. Lauderdale C4 hurricane at landfall had a RMW of 20 nm. So, the eye is what? Do I just add 10 miles? I think I'm missing something.


I think this is your answer:

How is the Radius of Maximum Wind Determined?
The Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) is defined as half the eye diameter plus 8 (i.e., RMW = ed / 2.0 + 8.0), if it's defined in the bulletin or defined via the dialog.


Link

Looked it up; did not know this............ :)
Quoting mikatnight:
Pardon me for a question...

Chris Landsea of the NHC (if you gotta name like that, reckon that's a good place to work!) wrote that the 1928 Hurricane's "Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) was about 30 nm, which is roughly equivalent to an eye diameter of 40 nm."

That seems confusing to me as I thought the eye diameter would be smaller than the RMW....


...talking radius and diameter...

RMW is 30 which means that the DIAMETER of max winds is 60

which is larger than eye Diameter of 40
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I think this is your answer:

How is the Radius of Maximum Wind Determined?
The Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) is defined as half the eye diameter plus 8 (i.e., RMW = ed / 2.0 + 8.0), if it's defined in the bulletin or defined via the dialog.


Link

Looked it up; did not know this............ :)


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...talking radius and diameter...

RMW is 30 which means that the DIAMETER of max winds is 60

which is larger than eye Diameter of 40


Thanks y'all! Knew I could count on ya. Oh, and duh. I confused radius and diameter. Mama warned me if I insisted on falling on my head, it might affect my future...
Tornado damage estimates skyrocket to $5 billion

The Moore tornado should make up a majority of this damage range, meaning it may go down as the costliest tornado in United States history if it surpasses the $2.8 billion caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado.
1029. Grothar
The NCEP cyclone probably shows a very good possibility of development of a system in the extreme SW Caribbean and has now for awhile. The models differ, but many do want to bring it towards the Florida peninsula and the Bahamas. Also, a slight possibility of something developing off the Florida east coast.



The GFS rainfall probability for the same period also shows an abundant rainfall across the area.



That monsoonal flow show bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well.



1030. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, what to you make of the 12z ECMWF having a big gyre in the BOC different from GFS which is in Western Caribbean?


Well we're still talking about a difference between two models at Day 10, so nothing can really be concluded from it. Besides, the ECMWF ensemble mean seems to be farther east with the activity, more in line with the GFS.

Quoting mikatnight:




Thanks y'all! Knew I could count on ya. Oh, and duh. I confused radius and diameter. Mama warned me if I insisted on falling on my head, it might affect my future...


I am still trying to do the math; if you have a storm with an RMW of 30nm, I think the diameter of the eye would be around 42 nm (30-8 = 22 x 2 = 44).........Same approx figure as Landsea.
Slowly consolidating.

tropical storm moving up the coast!!
Quoting Jedkins01:


I find it strange to me that people stubbornly continue to think its possible to just make our cities "tornado proof" such individuals are living in fiction. First of all, there have been many of strong reinforced structures destroyed by violent tornadoes, the recent Moore tornado is just one example.
I would also think the death of those children in the school in Moore would be enough to wake people up who insist that such structures are tornado safe. Those schools were built very strong, above building code. When the NWS says being above ground in such a tornado is not safe, they mean it, because they know the results, and they know the science.

Additionally, while making all structures much stronger would certainly help reduce total damage especially for tornadoes of lower power, it would not spare destruction. More importantly, the cost would be immense and isn't practical.

So why is this really not feasible?

#1 even strong structures succumb to high end tornadoes,contrary to the continued stubborn belief that they don't despite plenty of evidence from actual tornado impacts.

#2 the cost would be astronomically high


Last I checked we aren't all millionaires.

Bottom line is, there should be more underground cellars built and things of that sort to save lives. However, we can't stop the destruction.


IMHO...ace post Jedkins
Quoting Neapolitan:
You can throw out a good portion of pre-1974 tornadoes classified as "violent" in that graph. The farther one goes back in time before that period, the more years had passed between the event and the analysis. It's often difficult enough nowadays for experts on the scene just hours after a tornado has passed to accurately assign it a Fujita number; it's exponentially more difficult to do that based only on the hazy memories of folks who witnessed the twister, and a handful of yellowed newspaper clippings written about it. By their own admission, both Fujita and Tom Grazulis (of The Tornado Project) are on record as having stated that there wasn't much skill at all in rating tornadoes that had taken place years or even decades before they looked at them. IOW: that chart is only valid back until about 1970. (That's not to say there were no vicious twisters back then, but there were probably fewer than the retroactively-applied Fujita ratings show.)


I've said a few times before, I'm always suspicious of much older ratings. Tornadoes or hurricanes. I'm sure some were likely what were rated, but I trust newer ratings much more still.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A more erratic jet stream may favor more tornadoes, yes, but wind shear is just one part of the equation.
Overall, wind shear is supposed to go down with global warming. The jet is also supposed to become more amplified, however, so it may be possible that the more extreme events have slightly more shear due to greater amplification of the jet. Hard to say for sure though, only think we can truly conclude is less shear overall.
Didn't even bother to bring up 91E in the headline. I don't see any formation in the near future with that. However, I do think 92E has a pretty good chance. The problem with it, is how large it currently is. The gyre will have to consolidate if it wants to develop. That's why I'm giving it a 50% chance of development in the next 3 days.

*Remember these are MY %ages of development and are not associated with the NHC*


1038. ncstorm
Good Evening..whats going on by Africa?



Quoting MississippiWx:


I see. Well, that makes sense, but it's the only information that we have to use. I think there is quite a bit of proof of other weather phenomenons changing (extreme weather events), but I just don't see much of any change with tornadoes. I'm assuming this will be an area of study for climate scientists for the next several years.
Honestly, our tornado record is so poor we shouldn't look for trends. It's like trying to find trends in the hurricane record while looking at the pre-satellite era; most of the events which occur away from people are not even recorded and track lengths, duration, and intensity are poorly documented. Until we can accurately track and measure each and every single tornado, the tornado record is incomplete, and shouldn't be used to try and find trends. Furthermore, until we can determine intensity of a tornado at every given location of the track, we can't make any real conclusions about tornado intensity trends.
1040. ncstorm
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Evening..whats going on by Africa?





Nothing. I'm not even sure if these charts are made by humans. They might be computer generated and development percentages go up with any area of convection and lower shear. Those maps mean nothing until they show an actual high percentage chance.
1042. ncstorm
12z GFS Ensembles Spread..seem to be pretty clear on a east coast tracker..







Quoting ncstorm:
Good Evening..whats going on by Africa?




nothing because as you can see its gone by 48

Quoting TomTaylor:
Honestly, our tornado record is so poor we shouldn't look for trends. It's like trying to find trends in the hurricane record while looking at the pre-satellite era; most of the events which occur away from people are not even recorded and track lengths, duration, and intensity are poorly documented. Until we can accurately track and measure each and every single tornado, the tornado record is incomplete, and shouldn't be used to try and find trends. Furthermore, until we can determine intensity of a tornado at every given location of the track, we can't make any real conclusions about tornado intensity trends.


That's exactly what I was saying, Jordan. Lol.
1045. ncstorm
and then another system..with the same track..





18z GFS showing a weak tropical depression and strong tropical storm in the eastern Pacific by 60 hours.

1047. ncstorm
my word..and then another potential system but this time heading into the panhandle..



Quoting MississippiWx:


That's exactly what I was saying, Jordan. Lol.
I interpreted your post as you literally saying you don't see any change, I'm saying don't look for change, the record is terrible. Perhaps that's what you were trying to say in the first place. Glad we agree though.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Nothing. I'm not even sure if these charts are made by humans. They might be computer generated and development percentages go up with any area of convection and lower shear. Those maps mean nothing until they show an actual high percentage chance.
Definitely computer generated.
1049. ncstorm
I dont know guys..
Quoting TomTaylor:
You said you don't see any change, I'm saying don't look for change, the record is terrible. Glad we agree though.Definitely computer generated.


I said I don't see any change because others were trying to point out changes. You'll have to go back and read what was said before that.
18z GFS showing one tropical storm over the Pacific and minimal hurricane nearing landfall at 75 hours:



strong storms
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont know guys..


Absolutely no chance anything develops in that part of the world for a while. The subtropical jet is racing through there at speeds of 60-70kts. That area is a little south of the highest shear. If it comes north, it will be ripped to shreds. If it stays south, it will run into South America. It could eventually provide more energy to the monsoon circulation in the Western Caribbean, however.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Absolutely no chance anything develops in that part of the world for a while. The subtropical jet is racing through there at speeds of 60-70kts. That area is a little south of the highest shear. If it comes north, it will be ripped to shreds. If it stays south, it will run into South America. It could eventually provide more energy to the monsoon circulation in the Western Caribbean, however.


Hey! Listen to the words of your favorite singer!
Good day to all from America's Left Coast! Models still showing something near Florida in a week to 10 days?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey! Listen to the words of your favorite singer!


I've never even heard of that song. Funny how you knew about it. :-/
18z GFS at 96 hours:

Quoting ncstorm:
my word..and then another potential system but this time heading into the panhandle..



Three systems I have a really hard time believing that.GFS must be on some strong drug.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey! Listen to the words of your favorite singer!
Quoting MississippiWx:


I've never even heard of that song. Funny how you knew about it. :-/




MUCH better one

Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:




MUCH better one

Link


Lol. I agree, that one is much better.
Quoting Civicane49:
18z GFS at 96 hours:


dead
Quoting Civicane49:
18z GFS at 96 hours:


Ok, i know that low by California most likely isn't a tropical system but how interesting would that be? A storm hitting S. CA as a few did a long time ago?
Ok, ncstorm. I've been corrected to never say never. ;-)
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SITUATED NEAR
12N94W...OR WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MOVING SLOWLY NW. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER TIGHT AND
SMALL CIRCULATION AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF HE
LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS UNDERNEATH THE SW PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO...IT APPEARS THE LOW HAS ATTAINED MORE MOMEMTUM
IN TERMS OF VORTICITY AS IT CONTINUES PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY CONDITIONS
RELATING TO THIS LOW.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Absolutely no chance anything develops in that part of the world for a while. The subtropical jet is racing through there at speeds of 60-70kts. That area is a little south of the highest shear. If it comes north, it will be ripped to shreds. If it stays south, it will run into South America. It could eventually provide more energy to the monsoon circulation in the Western Caribbean, however.



GFS, is fantasy hours but, Yikes!!!The wind shear is almost dead in MDR in June 9(So early).....Woow!!!!!!I think GFS is overhiped but Man!!!!



Huh, kinda forgot about the Slight we have for today.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA
NORTHEAST WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LEWISTOWN MONTANA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BROADUS MONTANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...ONGOING STORMS FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NE WY ARE EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SOME THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES IN
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS THIS AREA IS BRUSHED BY AN EJECTING SPEED MAX OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER THIS EVENING...STORM MERGERS COULD
LEAD TO THE GROWTH OF A CLUSTER OR LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
Quoting stormchaser19:


GFS, is fantasy hours but, Yikes!!!The wind shear is almos death in MDR in June 9(So early).....Woow!!!!!!I think GFS is overhiped but Man!!!!





Yeah, I've been noticing that on the very long range of the GFS. It's not really moving up in time yet, so not sure of the accuracy.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX...FAR WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262203Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL HAZARDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AS TSTMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE. MONITORING
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG
THE E-CNTRL CO/W-CNTRL KS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE ARCING S/SWWD
THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. HIGH-BASED CU HAS
GROWN IN THE PAST HOUR BOTH ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE. WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...THIS CU SHOULD DEEPEN
INTO TSTMS BY 23Z. WITH SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS IN THE KHHF
AND KCDS OBS...MAINTENANCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
E OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /SAMPLED
IN AMA VWP DATA/ ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN
ROCKIES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIKELY YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. GIVEN 35-40 DEG F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE
HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2013
18z GFS shows lowering pressures across the western Atlantic in the beginning of June.

Hey dudes and dudettes! What is wrong with chat? It wont log me in!
1072. ncstorm
Will the Almanac be right??

June 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry weather.
4th-7th. Big thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to Carolinas. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting ncstorm:
Will the Almanac be right??

June 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry weather.
4th-7th. Big thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to Carolinas. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.


lol its looking plausible!
1074. ncstorm
18z GFS-204 hours
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS-204 hours


Ummm,same as 12z ECMWF in BOC.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I've never even heard of that song. Funny how you knew about it. :-/
I'm a music hater of any type and don't listen to any music. However, it must be awkward for you that I've heard of that song.
1077. ncstorm
252 hours

Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm a music hater of any type and don't listen to any music. However, it must be awkward for you that I've heard of that song.


Lol. I've heard of it, unfortunately. Twas a joke back at TA.
1079. ncstorm
276


288


312
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. I've heard of it, unfortunately. Twas a joke back at TA.
Oh, haha. Hard to tell if it's a joke on Internet. Yeah, never get why people like Justin Bieber...
Quoting Dragod66:
Hey dudes and dudettes! What is wrong with chat? It wont log me in!


I got in just fine. Try again.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm a music hater of any type and don't listen to any music. However, it must be awkward for you that I've heard of that song.


not that its any of my business, but how can you hate music?
Quoting Civicane49:
The GFS has been consistent on showing two storms.
1085. Patrap


Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season.

These are:

1.A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

2.Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

3.El Nino is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I am still trying to do the math; if you have a storm with an RMW of 30nm, I think the diameter of the eye would be around 42 nm (30-8 = 22 x 2 = 44).........Same approx figure as Landsea.


So,

Eye Diameter = (RMW-8)x2

'47 storm w/20 nm RMW = 24 mile wide eye.

Haven't had a chance to fully explore that link you supplied, but I've got it saved. Thanks again. Very helpful.
Quoting Doppler22:

Ok, i know that low by California most likely isn't a tropical system but how interesting would that be? A storm hitting S. CA as a few did a long time ago?


NOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I strongly say we gonna have a storm start from Honduras then to cuba then to S Florida then SE US coast
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not that its any of my business, but how can you hate music?
I guess I grew up disliking music because of my deafness. I do have cochlear implant so I can hear. I guess music sounds different to me. I don't feel emotions from them.
Quoting Civicane49:

A really good looking circulation
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I guess I grew up disliking music because of my deafness. I do have cochlear implant so I can hear. I guess music sounds different to me. I don't feel emotions from them.

Kinda sad though you can't enjoys the sweet sound as we do
I guess that would also show how thick the eyewall is...

'47 storm again:
If my Diameter of Maximum Wind is 40 nm and the Eye Diameter is 24 nm, then

40-24=16/2=8

So, eyewall would be 8 miles thick (assuming even thickness all the way around).

Quoting mikatnight:


So,

Eye Diameter = (RMW-8)x2

'47 storm w/20 nm RMW = 24 mile wide eye.

Haven't had a chance to fully explore that link you supplied, but I've got it saved. Thanks again. Very helpful.
1094. Dakster
Thanks for good news Grothar....

(sarcasm: on)
Seems like the operational GFS is having a difficult time consolidating the large monsoonal gyre into one area of low pressure. It instead breaks off different pieces of vorticity and forms at least 3 individual low pressure areas. They are then shot out to the northeast into a large sprawling high pressure system. This solution seems very awkward and it is probably a result of the GFS not handling the monsoonal circulation very well. The ensembles have had a better grip on the evolving pattern and I'd keep sticking to them for now.

18z GFS

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:49 PM PDT on May 26, 2013
Partly Cloudy
78 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 43%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.96 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 79 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Pollen: 4.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Another beautiful day here, Goldilocks weather, just right.
(delurking)

Cognitive musicology student here. Understanding and analysis of music is linked to neurotransmitter activity in the right center area of the brain, the same place we process what happens when we see something and reach for it. Enjoyment of music is linked to oxytocin activity, which governs memory and attachment. If Bluestorm5 doesn't like music, it's because the brain, in the absence of the usual stimuli, probably processes the music using different parts of the brain not associated with the same neurotransmitters.

(returns to lurking)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

A really good looking circulation


Still broad and weak though.
1099. Patrap


FAMILY COMMUNICATIONS

Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so plan how you will contact one another. Think about how you will communicate in different situations.

Family Communication Tips

Identify a contact such as a friend or relative who lives out-of-state for household members to notify they are safe. It may be easier to make a long-distance phone call than to call across town, so an out-of-town contact may be in a better position to communicate among separated family members.

Be sure every member of your family knows the phone number and has a cell phone, coins or a prepaid phone card to call the emergency contact. If you have a cell phone, program that person(s) as "ICE" (In Case of Emergency) in your phone. If you are in an accident, emergency personnel will often check your ICE listings in order to get a hold of someone you know. Make sure to tell your family and friends that you've listed them as emergency contacts.

Teach family members how to use text messaging (also known as SMS or Short Message Service). Text messages can often get around network disruptions when a phone call might not be able to get through.

Subscribe to alert services. Many communities now have systems that will send instant text alerts or e-mails to let you know about bad weather, road closings, local emergencies, etc. Sign up by visiting your local Office of Emergency Management web site.
Things that make you go Hummmm. Stage right I am talking...



1101. ncstorm
12z Nogaps


18z Nogaps


So until GOES-13 comes back up or GOES-14 moves, we're not going to be able to use the TCFP with much accuracy EAST of what looks like 30W.

The above image is the Percent colder than -40. The same applies for the Cloud-cleared water vapor brightness.



As you can see in both the map and the chart there is a cut off where satellite data is not available due to the position of GOES-14 and is causing an anomalously high percentage of cold cloud tops thus increasing the anomalous cyclogenesis potential.
The Gulf could be above average by tomorrow. I was in the Gulf all day yesterday and I know the water felt like bath water. It doesn't take long for the Gulf to warm at all.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 261819
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY)...
THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
DEEPER LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION COULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BY THURSDAY
A BROAD LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY FORMING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD REACH NEAR 25 KNOTS...BUT
FOR NOW WINDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED NEAR 21 KNOTS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
Is cloud cover causing the MDR to drop a little bit?

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

A really good looking circulation

I don't see any circulation. Maybe I need to clean my glasses
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I guess I grew up disliking music because of my deafness. I do have cochlear implant so I can hear. I guess music sounds different to me. I don't feel emotions from them.


ah well that makes sense

Quoting Patrap:


FAMILY COMMUNICATIONS

Your family may not be together when disaster strikes, so plan how you will contact one another. Think about how you will communicate in different situations.Make sure to tell your family and friends that you've listed them as emergency contacts.

Teach family members how to use text messaging (also known as SMS or Short Message Service).


What I have learned through a disaster is that it is better to take a deep breath, calm down, and take things slowly, and to not rush to any decisions. When we had a tornado, my parents couldn't contact each other because the cell towers were jammed and the regular phone lines were umm, nonexistent near my house (I blame the storm). It wasn't until nightfall that we knew that everyone was safe and were able to relay the info to our relatives.
The latest NAM is projecting a 160 knot H25 jet to move ashore the West Coast on Wednesday. A jet disturbance of this intensity is unprecedented for late May.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is cloud cover causing the MDR to drop a little bit?



Probably. No lack of moisture in the tropics, that's for sure.

Found this on Mike Seidel's Twitter page. Check out the snow on Whiteface Mountain this weekend !!

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The latest NAM is projecting a 160 knot H25 jet to move ashore the West Coast on Wednesday. A jet disturbance of this intensity is unprecedented for late May.



It is not unprecedented...it has happened before....the precedent has been set.
1113. Levi32
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It is not unprecedented...it has happened before....the precedent has been set.


Yes. "Unprecedented" is an extreme word that is far over-used these days.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It is not unprecedented...it has happened before....the precedent has been set.

I'm still trying to find an example of a 160 knot jet at H25 as it came ashore in late May. Perhaps you could help?
92E up to 40% while 91E remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR MARGINAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Looks like 92E is organizing in a steady pace,now up to 40%.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm still trying to find an example of a 160 knot jet at H25 as it came ashore in late May. Perhaps you could help?



would take faaaaaaar to long...but rest assured this has happened before.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Looks like 92E is organizing in a steady pace,now up to 40%.

by the looks of it the way 92E goin maybe TD tomorrow evening
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it the way 92E goin maybe TD tomorrow evening


Well this upcoming Barbara is somewhat similar to 2007 Barbara. ..

Remember that MCV west of San Antonio I pointed out earlier? Well, storms have begun to re-fire with it near the city. It's still a bit to the west where it can mainly help the Edwards Aquifer recharge, but if it drifts east, the possibility of continued flood issues for San Antonio is certainly there.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Well this upcoming Barbara is somewhat similar to 2007 Barbara. ..


E-W or W-E
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

E-W or W-E


Just for the location and the landfall potential
Sunny day here with a gentle breeze...According to the
model runs people are posting here we may get numerous showers and thunderstorms for the first week of June, which is not unusual for this time of year. I'll be watching the models to see if they indicate any winds stronger than 40 mph in any squalls that develop with the low during the first week of June.
1125. Gearsts
Very cool loop.
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
Sunny day here with a gentle breeze...According to the
model runs people are posting here we may get numerous showers and thunderstorms for the first week of June, which is not unusual for this time of year. I'll be watching the models to see if they indicate any winds stronger than 40 mph in any squalls that develop with the low during the first week of June.

Hello have we met before I don't really remember sorry
One of the ensemble member has development as early as June 1st.



Takes the system east of FL.



Another ensemble member starts development on the 4th.



Takes it into the GOM.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it the way 92E goin maybe TD tomorrow evening
Thank you.
You make my recent purchase of "TD at 11" re-clicks on google ad-words look like it's going to be the moneymaker it's been for 8 years now. I'm not sure how it works, but everytime someone somewhere mentions "TD at 11" the register rings here. Ty Cayman.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thank you.
You make my recent purchase of "TD at 11" re-clicks on google ad-words look like it's going to be the moneymaker it's been for 8 years now. I'm not sure how it works, but everytime someone somewhere mentions "TD at 11" the register rings here. Ty Cayman.

Umm ok but I did not say at 11 I was thinking more 5 pm or so
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Umm ok but I did not say at 11 I was thinking more 5 pm or so




un less 92E dos some in vary cool overe night there is no way that 92E will be come a TD by 5pm or 11pm 92E still looks like crap right now
Quoting Tazmanian:




un less 92E dos some in vary cool overe night there is no way that 92E will be come a TD by 5pm or 11pm 92E still looks like crap right now

Look crap due to Dmin but it will explode at Dmax in the morning
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Look crap due to Dmin but it will explode at Dmax in the morning




92E is tooo close too shore too this explode
Quoting Tazmanian:




un less 92E dos some in vary cool overe night there is no way that 92E will be come a TD by 5pm or 11pm 92E still looks like crap right now


Hey Taz... 92E looks pretty good organized to me.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Probably. No lack of moisture in the tropics, that's for sure.



That's quite a difference from years past. I suspect the vertical instability is above average currently as well. May be a bit of a slow start looking at things in the general hot spots for June but, coming full gorilla when they do start cranking.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Taz... 92E looks pretty good organized to me.



92E dos seem too be organized but it is way too close too the shore for any RI
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Look crap due to Dmin but it will explode at Dmax in the morning

DMAX isn't going to make its separation from the ITCZ any quicker.
Quoting Tazmanian:




92E is tooo close too shore too this explode


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SITUATED NEAR
12N94W...OR WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MOVING SLOWLY NW. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER TIGHT AND
SMALL CIRCULATION AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF HE
LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS UNDERNEATH THE SW PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO...IT APPEARS THE LOW HAS ATTAINED MORE MOMEMTUM
IN TERMS OF VORTICITY AS IT CONTINUES PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY CONDITIONS
RELATING TO THIS LOW.

Ok it's a small system as stated above small systems don't take much to explode
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

DMAX isn't going to make its separation from the ITCZ any quicker.

No it is not but up till last minute Alvin had the itcz still with it till like second advisory
Even so 92E should break eventually
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

DMAX isn't going to make its separation from the ITCZ any quicker.


Pardon me if I'm mistaken, but I thought detachment from the ITCZ/monsoon trough was more dependent on the development of a closed circulation than an increase in areal latitude? If that is the case, then dmax could theoretically aid in cyclogenesis. Not that I'm implying anything about 92E's development chances in the morning, I'm just being general.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pardon me if I'm mistaken, but I thought detachment from the ITCZ/monsoon trough was more dependent on the development of a closed circulation than an increase in areal latitude. If that is the case, then dmax could theoretically aid in cyclogenesis. Not that I'm implying anything about 92E's development chances in the morning, I'm just being general.

Aren't DMIN/DMAX primarily convective cycles?
Another thing NHC 24-48h forecast maps develops 92E but still have it latched on monsoon trof
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SITUATED NEAR
12N94W...OR WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MOVING SLOWLY NW. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER TIGHT AND
SMALL CIRCULATION AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF HE
LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS UNDERNEATH THE SW PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO...IT APPEARS THE LOW HAS ATTAINED MORE MOMEMTUM
IN TERMS OF VORTICITY AS IT CONTINUES PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY CONDITIONS
RELATING TO THIS LOW.

Ok it's a small system as stated above small systems don't take much to explode


Still very much embedded within the monsoon trough. It won't develop much until it separates which it's in the process of doing--slowly.

wow sfl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Isn't DMIN/DMAX primarily convective cycles?


They are. But that is the very reason why an increase in nocturnal convection could help to invigorate a developing circulation. As I understand it, any significant latitude gains with systematic lows embedded in the ITCZ or monsoon trough tends to occur after the development of a well-defined surface center.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF NORFOLK NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 222...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERWAY ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT IN CENTRAL NEB. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
STRONGEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE INITIAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WILL POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. LATER
TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ COULD ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING
GUSTS AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...THOMPSON
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pardon me if I'm mistaken, but I thought detachment from the ITCZ/monsoon trough was more dependent on the development of a closed circulation than an increase in areal latitude? If that is the case, then dmax could theoretically aid in cyclogenesis. Not that I'm implying anything about 92E's development chances in the morning, I'm just being general.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Isn't DMIN/DMAX primarily convective cycles?

Yeah but it's got other things too
Simply it aid development
Quoting KoritheMan:


They are. But that is the very reason why an increase in nocturnal convection could help to invigorate a developing circulation. As I understand it, any significant latitude gains with systematic lows embedded in the ITCZ or monsoon trough tends to occur after the development of a well-defined surface center.


This. D-max can support this action, but it's far from a guarantee. D-max can just as easily cause a flare up of convection all along the monsoon trough, providing competition for any low pressure center around such as we saw with Alvin.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Still very much embedded within the monsoon trough. It won't develop much until it separates which it's in the process of doing--slowly.


It doing it though

Anyway small part of me says it won't get out of monsoon trof anyway wait and see
Quoting MississippiWx:


This. D-max can support this action, but it's far from a guarantee. D-max can just as easily cause a flare up of convection all along the monsoon trough, providing competition for any low pressure center around such as we saw with Alvin.

And could be the case with this
I think it's safe to say that nothing significant will develop from this overnight. It will take a couple more days..

Quoting MississippiWx:
I think it's safe to say that nothing significant will develop from this overnight. It will take a couple more days..


in the next couple of days it could in central America
warmer in the high nw than the low ne

1153. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


They are. But that is the very reason why an increase in nocturnal convection could help to invigorate a developing circulation. As I understand it, any significant latitude gains with systematic lows embedded in the ITCZ or monsoon trough tends to occur after the development of a well-defined surface center.


Not necessarily. The cyclogenesis process naturally involves the development of a wave axis or "kink" in the monsoon trough. As that wave disturbance grows, it extends meridionally. Usually the highest cyclonic vorticity is found near the northern portion of the wave, which can lead to a feedback process where the center of low pressure tends to gain latitude as it grows and strengthens.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

in the next couple of days it could in central America


Models show it separating from the monsoon trough and stalling off the Mexican coastline. The GFS actually blows it up into a hurricane in 60 hours:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado damage estimates skyrocket to $5 billion

The Moore tornado should make up a majority of this damage range, meaning it may go down as the costliest tornado in United States history if it surpasses the $2.8 billion caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado.


That's more destructive than some major hurricanes.
The power and awsomeness (word?) of lightning.

Link
most models take 92E into central america within 48-96 hours some stalls it out on the coast but then landfalls it a little bit later and very very few take it WNW away from the coast
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Remember that MCV west of San Antonio I pointed out earlier? Well, storms have begun to re-fire with it near the city. It's still a bit to the west where it can mainly help the Edwards Aquifer recharge, but if it drifts east, the possibility of continued flood issues for San Antonio is certainly there.



I just want to thank ex-Alvin and his successors for all the moisture plume that has streamed up to TX and given us all this rain. If not for them, we'd be bone-dry and 100o.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I think it's safe to say that nothing significant will develop from this overnight. It will take a couple more days..

In a couple of days it will probably run into land.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

in the next couple of days it could in central America
If you are talking about the Caribbean system then I hope so it has been so dry just today it looks like it was going to be a big rain event and just like 10 min of light rain.
1161. Thrawst
Y'all want to see some storm structure? Check the North Platte, Nebraska radar site.
1162. Patrap

362
WFUS53 KLBF 270103
TORLBF
NEC009-270145-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0009.130527T0103Z-130527T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
803 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 759 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF BREWSTER...AND MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BREWSTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 4189 9970 4191 10009 4204 10013 4209 9993
4208 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 257DEG 10KT 4197 9999

North Platte
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI



Quoting Thrawst:
Y'all want to see some storm structure? Check the North Platte, Nebraska radar site.
Good hook echo.

1164. Patrap
North Platte
NEXRAD Radar

Echo Tops ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

1167. Patrap
North Platte
NEXRAD Radar

Vertically Integrated Liquid ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Quoting Thrawst:
Y'all want to see some storm structure? Check the North Platte, Nebraska radar site.


And with a one-liner post, the blog is thrown from its discussion.

Quoting Chucktown:
The power and awsomeness (word?) of lightning.

Link


*awesomeness is how the word is spelled. ;)
Quoting allancalderini:
In a couple of days it will probably run into land.If you are talking about the Caribbean system then I hope so it has been so dry just today it looks like it was going to be a big rain event and just like 10 min of light rain.

I know you need it as bad as we do but no I'm talking about 92E
Quoting MississippiWx:


Models show it separating from the monsoon trough and stalling off the Mexican coastline. The GFS actually blows it up into a hurricane in 60 hours:



Right now we have the two best dynamical models developing at least a strong TS,CMC has withdrawn the solution in the 12z run.......

The supercell has a nice structure, but its rotation is minimal.

1172. Patrap

262
WUUS53 KLBF 270126
SVRLBF
NEC017-031-270215-
/O.NEW.KLBF.SV.W.0087.130527T0126Z-130527T0215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
826 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BROWN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 822 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ELSMERE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAVEN...MOON LAKE...JONES LAKE AND HOFELD LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



LAT...LON 4256 10031 4250 9973 4209 9984 4209 10004
4209 10030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 191DEG 26KT 4228 10008

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
1173. Patrap
North Platte
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

1174. Patrap

293
WFUS55 KRIW 270130
TORRIW
WYC019-270215-
/O.NEW.KRIW.TO.W.0004.130527T0130Z-130527T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
730 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING...

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT

* AT 727 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STATE HWY 192 MILE MARKER 10...OR ABOUT
10 MILES EAST OF KAYCEE...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS STATE
HWY 192 MILE MARKER 20 AND SUSSEX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4386 10620 4366 10615 4363 10633 4364 10648
4381 10654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 256DEG 9KT 4372 10646

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pardon me if I'm mistaken, but I thought detachment from the ITCZ/monsoon trough was more dependent on the development of a closed circulation than an increase in areal latitude? If that is the case, then dmax could theoretically aid in cyclogenesis. Not that I'm implying anything about 92E's development chances in the morning, I'm just being general.
It's dependent on favorable convective conditions. You need favorable conditions for convection to flourish in a localized area on and just to the north of the monsoon trough. Ideally, this would allow for a segment of the monsoon trough to kink and eventually break off into a closed circulation. If conditions are favorable along the entire monsoon trough axis then you've got problems.

Dmax can help or hinder the development/separation process, depending on the situation. Convective dmax increases the background instability across the entire region. As long as the most favorable region for convection is where you're trying to get development/seperation then dmax can speed up this process. If the most favorable areas for convection are elsewhere, however, then it will have a negative effect on the area of interest, hindering development.
1176. Patrap
1177. Patrap
1178. Thrawst
Quoting Astrometeor:


And with a one-liner post, the blog is thrown from its discussion.



*awesomeness is how the word is spelled. ;)


I did good :P
1179. Patrap
Just saw the triple planet conjunction in the West, Low.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The supercell has a nice structure, but its rotation is minimal.

What is the image on the right showing exactly? Specifically, what tilt are we looking at, what product is it (storm relative or base velocity) and could you display the side bar also so we can see what values we're lookin' at? Tanks!
1181. Patrap

614
WFUS53 KLBF 270144
TORLBF
NEC041-270215-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0010.130527T0144Z-130527T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
844 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 841 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF COMSTOCK...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMSTOCK...ARCADIA DIVERSION DAM STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
WESCOTT AND BIG OAK CANYON.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 00 AND 06.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.



LAT...LON 4135 9924 4145 9944 4174 9923 4173 9920
4139 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 222DEG 11KT 4148 9927

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.75IN
Quoting TomTaylor:
What is the image on the left showing exactly? Specifically, what tilt are we looking at, what product is it (storm relative or base velocity) and could you display the side bar also so we can see what values we're lookin' at? Tanks!

I'm not TA, but I think the left is base reflectivity and the right is normalized rotation(NROT).
Quoting TomTaylor:
What is the image on the left showing exactly? Specifically, what tilt are we looking at, what product is it (storm relative or base velocity) and could you display the side bar also so we can see what values we're lookin' at? Tanks!

Left? The left is base reflectivity at 0.5° tilt. The right is normalized rotation (NROT) at the same tilt. Here's an updated frame with the bar:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Left? The left is base reflectivity at 0.5° tilt. The right is normalized rotation (NROT) at the same tilt. Here's an updated frame with the bar:

Thanks. Meant right, yeah. Is there a rough guideline for what kind of tornado you could expect with a given NROT value? Obviously storm rotation doesn't always mean a tornado, nor does it necessarily indicate tornado strength. But there's gotta be some loose correlation/rough estimate. For example, I saw on a forum somewhere that above 1.0 is considered "significant" and 2.5 is considered "extreme".

Maybe a better question is how does NROT look for an EF-5?
1185. beell
N Platte, NE
2.4° elevation
Or , where it's spinning. About 8,000'

Quoting TomTaylor:
Thanks. Meant right, yeah. Is there a rough guideline for what kind of tornado you could expect with a given NROT value? Obviously storm rotation doesn't always mean a tornado, nor does it necessarily indicate tornado strength. But there's gotta be some loose correlation/rough estimate. For example, I saw on a forum somewhere that above 1.0 is considered "significant" and 2.5 is considered "extreme".

Maybe a better question is how does NROT look for an EF-5?

Well as you said, storm rotation doesn't indicate tornado strength; it doesn't even indicate a tornado is on the gronud...we won't know that until it's confirmed by people or a debris signature shows up. As a rough estimate though, anything over 1-1.5 could indicate a tornado is on the ground.
Quoting beell:
N Platte, NE
2.4 elevation
Or , where it's spinning. About 8,000'

Yes, that was my first point I was getting at. 0.5 deg tilt is too low. Didn't really follow up with that point though lol.
1188. Grothar


1189. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes, that was my first point. 0.5 deg tilt is too low.


This one may already be N of the boundary.
Evening all.

Wow... how do you guys blog on these little tiny phones? I never got the blog to load on my little Android, even with the comments set to 50 questions... I tried to post a message, but the page never finished loading!

Is there some easier way to comment via cell phone than using the phones built-in browser? I like the idea of a backup connection, but I can't imagine trying to use that implement in a battle-stations active blog...
Brewster ND storm has awesome structure and very intense rotation but none of it is ground based it seems. NWS has not reissued a tornado warning for the storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well as you said, storm rotation doesn't indicate tornado strength; it doesn't even indicate a tornado is on the gronud...we won't know that until it's confirmed by people or a debris signature shows up. As a rough estimate though, anything over 1-1.5 could indicate a tornado is on the ground.
hmm alright thanks
Quoting beell:
N Platte, NE
2.4 elevation
Or , where it's spinning. About 8,000'

Quoting TomTaylor:
Yes, that was my first point. 0.5 deg tilt is too low.

Why would you look for a tornado...meaning it's touching the ground...at anything higher than 0.5 tilt? That kinda defeats the purpose.
1194. Grothar
Nice high building soon in the Atlantic.

1195. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would you look for a tornado...meaning it's touching the ground...at anything higher than 0.5 tilt?


Hell, TA. I just look. All levels. Sometimes you may see one working to the surface.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would you look for a tornado...meaning it's touching the ground...at anything higher than 0.5 tilt?
No, but your first post said it wasn't rotating much as a general statement. I didn't think you were referring to tornadic rotation specifically.
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, but your first post said it wasn't rotating much as a general statement. I didn't think you were referring to tornadic rotation specifically.

Oh. Yeah, I was talking about rotation near the surface. Sorry 'bout that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well as you said, storm rotation doesn't indicate tornado strength; it doesn't even indicate a tornado is on the gronud...we won't know that until it's confirmed by people or a debris signature shows up. As a rough estimate though, anything over 1-1.5 could indicate a tornado is on the ground.

It can be lower sometimes though. :)

Quoting Grothar:



Yep I've been watching FIM model as well but didn't want to mention it till we had a system to track cause I don't like to use FIM too much when there is no invest


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN/NRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 223...

VALID 270207Z - 270330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 223 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALL HAZARD THREATS CONTINUE NEAR-TERM WITH SUPERCELLS JUST
N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. ADDITIONAL /PRIMARILY ELEVATED/
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO NERN NEB WITH MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 20 S BBW TO NEAR SDA. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
NEAR-TERM WITH SUPERCELLS JUST N OF THIS FRONT...BUT A GRADUALLY
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSCALE GROWTH SHOULD YIELD A SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT. LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40 KT PER KUEX
VWP DATA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT N OF THE
FRONT AND INFLOW OF A STRONGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
HAS BLOSSOMED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR IN N-CNTRL NEB /WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S/. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AS IT DEVELOPS INTO NERN NEB.

..GRAMS.. 05/27/2013
Found this on Scott Lincoln's site.

Quoting
Mesocyclone/TVS Discrimination

If a detection is triggered, it becomes a TVS if the base elevation (lowest node) is below 5000ft, otherwise it is considered a mesocyclone. Mesocyclone/TVS icons are colored based on the strength of NROT at the lowest node, where:

NROT >1.0 (green from default color table)
NROT >1.5 (yellow from default color table)

NROT >2.0 (red from default color table).... rare detection, usually associated with significant tornadoes.**

NROT >2.5 (purple from default color table)... very rare detection, almost always associated with strong to violent torandoes or obvious dealiasing failures.**

**This is my personal observation-based opinion, based upon review of easily 50-100 cases. This has not yet been validated by a peer-reviewed publication.
Basically, the TVS/Mesocyclone signature goes from green, yellow, red to purple. It can only become a TVS if the base elevation is below 5,000 feet (or perhaps if it's confirmed on the ground?). A value above 2.0 would generally be indicative of a strong tornado.
Not sure the validity of this report. There's practically no rotation in the location of the reported tornado (marked with a red square).

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure the validity of this report. There's practically no rotation in the location of the reported tornado (marked with a red square).


Well, there is a tornado warning that says confirmed tornado.


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHWESTERN LOUP COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 904 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
DUNNING...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure the validity of this report. There's practically no rotation in the location of the reported tornado (marked with a red square).

Hard for me to tell where that report is exactly on the wunderground radar, but yeah, that report looks to be in an odd position relative to the storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure the validity of this report. There's practically no rotation in the location of the reported tornado (marked with a red square).

i'm watching a loop of the radar, the cell sure appears to be tightly rotating, but not in the storm quadrant one would expect...
whoops.. meant to modify, not quote myself :P
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I know you need it as bad as we do but no I'm talking about 92E
92E will probably make landfall in Mexico not Central America.I am not sure why some not just you wunderkid that annex Mexico and CA together.
1208. Patrap

165
WFUS53 KGID 270227
TORGID
NEC175-270315-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0010.130527T0227Z-130527T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
927 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 925 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMSTOCK...OR 14 MILES
WEST OF ORD....AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN VALLEY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
As discussed, there's no way to definitively know the strength of the tornado using NROT...you can still get a rough idea.

NROT for Joplin EF5 (2.67):



NROT for Tuscaloosa EF4 (2.83):



NROT for Adairsville EF3 (2.11):



I can get EF2, 1, and 0 if you want, Jordan.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I guess I grew up disliking music because of my deafness. I do have cochlear implant so I can hear. I guess music sounds different to me. I don't feel emotions from them.
Yeah... hard to care much either way about something that you don't experience.
Quoting Thrawst:


I did good :P
I am very proud of your accomplishment...

;o)

1211. nigel20
Quoting Jedkins01:


I find it strange to me that people stubbornly continue to think its possible to just make our cities "tornado proof" such individuals are living in fiction. First of all, there have been many of strong reinforced structures destroyed by violent tornadoes, the recent Moore tornado is just one example.
I would also think the death of those children in the school in Moore would be enough to wake people up who insist that such structures are tornado safe. Those schools were built very strong, above building code. When the NWS says being above ground in such a tornado is not safe, they mean it, because they know the results, and they know the science.

Additionally, while making all structures much stronger would certainly help reduce total damage especially for tornadoes of lower power, it would not spare destruction. More importantly, the cost would be immense and isn't practical.

So why is this really not feasible?

#1 even strong structures succumb to high end tornadoes,contrary to the continued stubborn belief that they don't despite plenty of evidence from actual tornado impacts.

#2 the cost would be astronomically high


Last I checked we aren't all millionaires.

Bottom line is, there should be more underground cellars built and things of that sort to save lives. However, we can't stop the destruction.

Good evening/night friends!

I agree that we'll not be able to stop destruction, but what about investing in concrete and steel structures and maybe a slab roof. These structures would stand up a lot better than brick or wooden structures. Steel also gets stronger when it's placed under stress unlike other metals.. 'm not sure what it would cost to build such a structure in the us, but they can be built at an afforedable cost here in Jamaica were most of the structures are made of steel and concrete.
Memorial day, a day for heroes, almost ten thousand dead in Afghanistan and Iraq, tens of thousands injured; many hundreds committing suicide every year. Korea/Vietnam over 50K killed in both wars. 400K paid the highest price in WWII. Remembering, however painful, gives us pause to salute those who paid the highest price, for us, for our future. If we take the time to research, we find, stories of sacrifice, courage, and bravery. We find families who have lost all, kids who's fathers never will walk through that door. Our fallen fell for us, for them, for all. Let us never forget them, let us move beyond self and give our time and commitment to honor those who honored us. So many today shed tears for loved ones lost; let us shed tears with them and make a commitment to never forgetting their sacrifice.
Repeating this because I could use the help...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Wow... how do you guys blog on these little tiny phones? I never got the blog to load on my little Android, even with the comments set to 50 questions... I tried to post a message, but the page never finished loading!

Is there some easier way to comment via cell phone than using the phones built-in browser? I like the idea of a backup connection, but I can't imagine trying to use that implement in a battle-stations active blog...
Quoting nigel20:

Good evening/night friends!

I agree that we'll not be able to stop destruction, but what about investing in concrete and steel structures and maybe a slab roof. These structures would stand up a lot better than brick or wooden structures. Steel also gets stronger when it's placed under stress unlike other metals.. 'm not sure what it would cost to build such a structure in the us, but they can be built at an afforedable cost here in Jamaica were most of the structures are made of steel and concrete.

This is what's left of Briarwood Elementary school, a brick and concrete structure, following the Moore EF5:



What was left of a Home Depot, a steel structure, in Joplin following that EF5:



Better, yeah, but still not enough.
Quoting allancalderini:
92E will probably make landfall in Mexico not Central America.I am not sure why some not just you wunderkid that annex Mexico and CA together.

it is considered part of central America
1217. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
Repeating this because I could use the help...

Hey Baha!

I'm not sure..I don't have much problem using this blog with my phone or tablet (android), maybe you could try the classic weather underground.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As discussed, there's no way to definitively know the strength of the tornado using NROT...you can still get a rough idea.

NROT for Joplin EF5 (2.67):



NROT for Tuscaloosa EF4 (2.83):



NROT for Adairsville EF3 (2.11):



I can get EF2, 1, and 0 if you want, Jordan.
How'd Moore look?
1219. nigel20
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it is considered part of central America

Yeah, all the countries from Mexico to Panama are part of central america.
It seemed like the threat diminished...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
949 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

NEC009-041-115-270259-
/O.CAN.KLBF.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130527T0300Z/
BLAINE NE-CUSTER NE-LOUP NE-
949 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUP...NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER
AND SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...


THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...THEREFORE THE TORNADO WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED
. HOWEVER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4165 9956 4174 10009 4192 10009 4193 9947
4163 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 292DEG 8KT 4178 9993

$$

BROOKS
anyway guys I'm going to take a nap and I'll be back about 12/1 am so see ya then
Quoting TomTaylor:
How'd Moore look?

2.94.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2.94.

Strongest NROT you ever seen? I'm guessing El Reno tornado.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Strongest NROT you ever seen? I'm guessing El Reno tornado.

Yeah. Peaked over 3.5.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Baha!

I'm not sure..I don't have much problem using this blog with my phone or tablet (android), maybe you could try the classic weather underground.
Maybe I should set up another account to use just with the phone so I can reduce the download time by disabling or modifying certain features.

I also have a feeling typing long messages will NOT be happening.... lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure the validity of this report. There's practically no rotation in the location of the reported tornado (marked with a red square).



A radar can't always spot that which is occurring at the ground.
In advance. ..

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!!

Say thanks to any Vet you see around or anyone serving to protect this great nation.
If it wasn't because of them who risk their lives for oufreedom, and those who died for this country we wouldn't be here today...

THANK YOU VES, SOLDIERS AND PEACE SEEKERS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is what's left of Briarwood Elementary school, a brick and concrete structure, following the Moore EF5:



What was left of a Home Depot, a steel structure, in Joplin following that EF5:



Better, yeah, but still not enough.


Bro,I tell you that, a well built structure will supports a Tornado,Code ACI have a chapter with that,indeed seeing your photo,I can prove that this structure has problem with structural design..
1229. Levi32
Remember, the radar rotation values, whatever they are based on, will depend very heavily on the radius of the tornado. Smaller vortices will not be resolved as well as larger ones.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Bro,I tell you that, a well built structure will supports a Tornado,Code ACI have a chapter with that,indeed seeing your photo, I prube that this structure has problem with structural design..

Which? The school or the Home Depot?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which? The school or the Home Depot?


that's what i'm talking about (Figure1), if you see the first house in your photos,only have the masonry wall, but the steel rods
(the frame) isn't there...

Quoting TomTaylor:
Found this on Scott Lincoln's site.

Basically, the TVS/Mesocyclone signature goes from green, yellow, red to purple. It can only become a TVS if the base elevation is below 5,000 feet (or perhaps if it's confirmed on the ground?). A value above 2.0 would generally be indicative of a strong tornado.

It only becomes a TVS if the estimated elevation of the lowest node is below 5000ft. So assuming that we have minimal super/sub-refraction and the above radar level (ARL) estimate of elevation is correct, you will never have a TVS detection in GR2Analyst where the radar can't see below 5000ft. Radar can almost never tell us 100% for sure that something is on the ground, although in some cases this becomes very close to certain, like when the tornado is passing within 10-20mi of the radar and the beam is sampling below cloud level.
Quoting Levi32:
Remember, the radar rotation values, whatever they are based on, will depend very heavily on the radius of the tornado. Smaller vortices will not be resolved as well as larger ones.

Yes, for sure. NROT was developed as a way to try and mitigate the range affects to velocity data (the same size circulation will appear weaker as its distance from the radar site increases). But because it looks at shear over a large area (9x9 pixel area for superres, 5x5 pixel area for legacy), it will not handle small circulations well. Mini-supercells, tropical spin-ups, QLCS tornadoes, etc will definitely be handled better by looking at the velocity data with the aid of spectrum width. NROT is a better aid to quickly get an idea of medium/large circulation strength. Although there is a rough correlation between the TVS strength and tornado strength, it shouldn't be taken as a 1:1 relationship and as always, radar is just a remote sensing tool.
POSS T.C.F.A.
92E/INV/XX/XX
MARK
11.11N/94.8W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is what's left of Briarwood Elementary school, a brick and concrete structure, following the Moore EF5:



What was left of a Home Depot, a steel structure, in Joplin following that EF5:



Better, yeah, but still not enough.



In the case of the Home Depot, clearly the roof produced a lot of momentum to the steel(NOTE: THE ROOF IS NOT OF CONCRETE BTW), therefore that type of structures is not recommended for tornadoes zones...
Quoting stormchaser19:



In the case of the Home Depot, clearly the roof produced a lot of momentum to the steel(NOTE: THE ROOF IS NOT OF CONCRETE BTW), therefore that type of structures is not recommended for tornado zones...
Lowe's was flatten in Sanford, NC from an EF3 tornado on April 16th, 2011.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222...

VALID 270331Z - 270530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 222
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES -- BUT STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING IN/NEAR WW 222 ACROSS ERN MT AND ADJACENT NERN WY.
STORMS JUST EXITING THE NERN PORTION OF THE WATCH HAVE BEGUN TO
CONGEAL -- WITH A MESOLOW AND BOWING STRUCTURE NOW EVIDENT. FARTHER
S...ISOLATED/ROTATING STORMS PERSIST. AS A WEAK SELY NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERING IS EXPECTED --
WITH CONVECTION LIKELY CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT.

WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
-- IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THE
TREND SHOULD SLOWLY BE DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL/STABILIZE. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SHOW MIXED-LAYER CAPE DIMINISHING -- AS WOULD BE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE SEVERAL DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THIS CONTINUES...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...SUGGESTING DIMINISHING WIND THREAT IN THE
SHORTER TERM...AND EVENTUALLY A DECREASE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL AS
WELL. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL/LIMITED EXTENSIONS IN
TIME OF THE EXISTING WATCH...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 05/27/2013
0z GFS at 60 hours:

1238. nigel20
Quoting stormchaser19:


i'm talking about, if you see the first house only have the masonry wall, but the steel rods
(the frame) isn't there...


Agreed.
Still waiting for that big one TA is so excited about.

Quoting Astrometeor:
Still waiting for that big one TA is so excited about.


Should start in earnest tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to Moderate risk across southeastern Nebraska and north-central/northeastern Kansas given CAPE on the order of 3500-4000 j/kg, dewpoints in the 70s, and steep lapse rates. Question regarding whether we get robust tornado and strong tornado potential (Moderate risk worthy) is how low LCL heights get and the strength of the low-level jet. Right now, model guidance indicates 750-1250 m. That's not terrible, but it could be lower. The LLJ is only expected to be 20-25 knots, but ESRH is well over 400 m2/s2. That, the predicted instability, and bulk shear (Sfc-500mb) of 60 knots may make up for the lack of wind shear at 850mb. I'd give a 10% hatched region for tornadoes tomorrow near the Nebraska/Kansas border. 45% hatched hail and 30% wind.
92E INVEST
This is the Wind analysis here in the Dominican Republic, was made for Mejors hurricanes, but in the case of Tornadoes, certainly can reinforce the structure

Link

The page 11 has a diagram of wind behavior in the structure
Quoting Civicane49:


The small low pressure is located beneath that little ball of convection above the bigger monsoon convection.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL IOWA
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1105 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BURWELL NEBRASKA TO 5 MILES EAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223. WATCH NUMBER 223 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1105 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 222...

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE GROWN UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ESEWD
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INTO ERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A CONTINUED
FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE S ON THE NOSE OF A 45-50 KT
LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...THOMPSON
1247. nigel20
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The small low pressure is located beneath that little ball of convection above the bigger monsoon convection.


Yes
Hello, I've been lurking around a lot but I don't come out much until hurricane season really cranks up, so you see me here once in a while but most of you probably don't know me. So if you'll reply, what's your opinion on the model consistency with an Early June tropical cyclone in the Caribbean/Gulf?
Quoting hurricaneben:
Hello, I've been lurking around a lot but I don't come out much until hurricane season really cranks up, so you see me here once in a while but most of you probably don't know me. So if you'll reply, what's your opinion on the model consistency with an Early June tropical cyclone in the Caribbean/Gulf?


The GFS ensembles and other ensembles have been consistent in forecasting lower pressures across the western Atlantic region on early June as the upward MJO pulse (which enhances convection) will move into that area and would remain there until early June. It is still too early to tell if we will get a tropical cyclone out of this, but we do have a general idea that more convective activity is expected there.
Quoting Civicane49:


The GFS ensembles and other ensembles have been consistent in forecasting lower pressures across the western Atlantic region on early June as the upward MJO pulse (which enhances convection) will move into that area and would remain there until early June. It is still too early to tell if we will get a tropical cyclone out of this, but we do have a general idea that wet weather is expected there.


Yeah, the MJO right now is somewhere over the Eastern Pacific? so that's why we're seeing more tropical activity there at the moment (91E/92E). Am I correct?
Quoting hurricaneben:


Yeah, the MJO right now is somewhere over the Eastern Pacific? so that's why we're seeing more tropical activity there at the moment (91E/92E). Am I correct?


You're correct. The upward MJO pulse is currently over the eastern Pacific where invests 91E and 92E are situated. You can see that there is a lot of convective activity there in this part of the tropics, indicating that the upward MJO pulse is in that region.
Quoting hurricaneben:


Yeah, the MJO right now is somewhere over the Eastern Pacific? so that's why we're seeing more tropical activity there at the moment (91E/92E). Am I correct?
Quoting hurricaneben:


Yeah, the MJO right now is somewhere over the Eastern Pacific? so that's why we're seeing more tropical activity there at the moment (91E/92E). Am I correct?


The MJO pulse is weak(second Box) and is in nobody Zone right now, but is clearly coming to our zone, eventually,however it's responsible for what is happening on the east pacific like Civicane49 said

0z GFS at 240 hours:

Quoting Civicane49:


You're correct. The upward MJO pulse is currently over the eastern Pacific where invests 91E and 92E are situated. You can see that there is a lot of convective activity there in this part of the tropics, indicating that the upward MJO pulse is in that region.


Thanks for letting me know. stormchaser19 too. I make my own blog posts here about it, I'm well aware of the MJO that helps enhance the convection but I wanted to know how direct its impact is on the development of TCs exactly.
Well, off to bed for me. Check out the Hurricane Protocol guide if you haven't already - and feel free to make any suggestions. They are most appreciated.


Also, if anyone has - or knows anyone who has - any video clips or stills of either 1964 Hurricane Cleo or Hurricane Isbell, I would love to have a copy or youtube link to put in the History section (still adding and editing) of the guide.


@SkiWhiteface Whiteface Mountain
We're now up to 34" of #Snow on top of #Whiteface what a #MemorialDay #weekend
Hey,Civicane 92E is gaining latitude on last several hours!!!




Reed Timmer
Check it out!!! Incredible supercell in the Badlands, SD area! Most amazing pancake stack
Quoting stormchaser19:
Hey,Civicane 92E is gaung latidute on last severals hours!!!




It has slightly, and its vorticity is less elongated than before. It is trying to break free from the monsoon trough.

I'm OUT, good night everybody and good rest of the day, for the fellas in others Hemisphere(Aussie)


It's gonna be a pretty cold night in the northeast tonight. Not as cold as yesterday, but some could still hit the freezing mark as you head towards northern Pennsylvania and inland New York. Others towards the northern Appalachians and inland New England could see temps in the mid 30's.
Quoting Grothar:
Nice high building soon in the Atlantic.



I see you high and i raise you this high.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it is considered part of central America
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, all the countries from Mexico to Panama are part of central america.
Why? Mexico is part of N America.Central America just consist of 7 countries and sometimes even five because some people don`t count Belize or Panama.
Quoting allancalderini:
Why? Mexico is part of N America.Central America just consist of 7 countries and sometimes even five because some people don`t count Belize or Panama.

Central America is all part of North America anyways, their is not a continent known as Central America, so everything from Panama to Canada is North America.
92E up to 50% while 91E down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

Yep Invest 92E is now @ 50 % chance of development, feel pretty confident in a Tropical Storm Barbara land-falling on the west coast of Mexico Mid-Week, maybe a hurricane if you believe some of the models.
Quoting mikatnight:
Pardon me for a question...

Chris Landsea of the NHC (if you gotta name like that, reckon that's a good place to work!) wrote that the 1928 Hurricane's "Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) was about 30 nm, which is roughly equivalent to an eye diameter of 40 nm."

That seems confusing to me as I thought the eye diameter would be smaller than the RMW...

Does anyone know the formula for finding the eye diameter from the RMW figure? For instance, the '47 Ft. Lauderdale C4 hurricane at landfall had a RMW of 20 nm. So, the eye is what? Do I just add 10 miles? I think I'm missing something.


Hello Mikatnight sorry for the late responce..

Eye Diameter is a somewhat relative and subjective value. When aircraft fly through the eye,the inner edge of the eye it is usually determined to be when the visibility become clear and unrestricted (i.e., no clouds). However, older radar data used the 18dBZ reflectivity value since that correlated to 0.01 inch/hr rainfall rate (i.e., the edge of precipitation...which is not the same as the edge of cloudy-clear air). Regardless of which criterion one uses to define the inner edge of the eye, the RMW always lies outside the eye; i.e., RMW > eye radius. Usually one can add about 5 nmi to the eye radius to come up with the RMW, or vice versa. So in the case of the 1947 FLL hurricane that you cited, a RMW=20 nmi would yield an eye radius of 15 nmi...or an eye diameter of approximately 30 nmi.

I hope this helps. Adrian
Quoting AussieStorm:


@SkiWhiteface Whiteface Mountain
We're now up to 34" of #Snow on top of #Whiteface what a #MemorialDay #weekend


Mount Mansfield, in Stowe, Vt., had 13.2 inches of snow Sunday, the latest in the season it's ever had a foot.
Most of the dynamical and statistical models are expecting 92E to make landfall on the Mexican coast near Puerto Angel as a tropical storm by the next few days. The GFS ensembles also agree with that.

Sun coming up over Africa.
ATCF says that the pressure for 92E is down to 1008 mb.

EP, 92, 2013052706, , BEST, 0, 129N, 949W, 25, 1008, DB,
92E is maintaining decent convection over the center in the past several hours.

Quoting Civicane49:
92E is maintaining decent convection over the center in the past several hours.



I expect the circulation to become well-defined by this time tomorrow if current trends continue.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Yep Invest 92E is now @ 50 % chance of development, feel pretty confident in a Tropical Storm Barbara land-falling on the west coast of Mexico Mid-Week, maybe a hurricane if you believe some of the models.


If it consolidates quick enough, I would anticipate a situation similar to Carlotta last year; as in, we have a rapidly intensifying hurricane off the coast. The environment is extremely favorable, and has much criteria for rapid intensification already satisfied. The only negatives are being embedded in the monsoon trough and the lack of a well-defined low-level center, both of which should improve with tonight's convection.
finally off work and see one of the invest is at 50%!
Quoting KoritheMan:


If it consolidates quick enough, I would anticipate a situation similar to Carlotta last year; as in, we have a rapidly intensifying hurricane off the coast.


Could it make it into the BOC?


1279. Dakster
Quoting Astrometeor:
Still waiting for that big one TA is so excited about.




Grothar? Care to comment?
Quoting AussieStorm:


Could it make it into the BOC?




I'm sure some residual energy will.
1284. pcola57
Good Morning Keep..
***********************
Thank you Keep for the post#531 in my blog..
It's amazing..
These are definitely signs of our times in the world today..
I watched it twice and still am in shock over the calamities..
I subscribed..
Thanks again..
92E is gaining more vorticity in the 850 mb level over the past few hours.

Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

It looks like 92E is slowly consolidating.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 27 2013


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 13N95W...OR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BANDING
FEATURE. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SEVERAL
DAYS OF PERSISTENTLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MEETING THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
Good morning. Looks like the potential is there for several tornadoes across the Plains today, with one or two possibly strong.

1289. pcola57


6z GFS at 264 hours:



300 hours:

something about the big bend area in the little early atlantic season for landfalls. its a magnet. must be the position of the jet stream?
1292. pcola57
Current Jet Stream Analysis..

WeatherTap..



COLA GFS..


WunderGround Jet has been stolen!!



Intellicast..

1293. pcola57
Quoting islander101010:
something about the big bend area in the little early atlantic season for landfalls. its a magnet. must be the position of the jet stream?


Forecasting the Jet Stream this year is very tough as we are being influenced by a warming climate with anomalous variations..
Dr. Masters had a great blog on it but I can't remember when it was..
One year ago

1295. pcola57
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
One year ago



TS Beryl..
1296. pcola57
91E..






92E..



1297. pcola57
1298. pcola57
1299. pcola57
92E up to 60% / 91E remains at 10%:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS YET OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
1301. pcola57
1302. pcola57
Omaha, NE (KOAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

1303. pcola57
Kansas City, MO (KEAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

GFS is consistent with a system starting up in the caribbean by 7-9 days....comes northeast after that.

TD to TS
looks like the moisture is beginning to increase in the s. carib.
hmm I did remember saying 92E explode and may get TD by "tomorrow"(today)"evening"(this evening) now it look like it might very well do that
06Z GFDL takes 92E into the Bay of Campeche



Quoting islander101010:
looks like the moisture is beginning to increase in the s. carib.

look more like it just increased a bit but moisture in the E Caribbean has decreased except for SE Caribbean making the Western Caribbean look like it gaining a lot more
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z GFDL takes 92E into the Bay of Campeche




woah GFDL is wild and crazy 994mb with 38kts
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z GFDL takes 92E into the Bay of Campeche





HWRF dissipates it as it makes landfall
A 5.6 quake occurred in NW Panama near border with Costa Rica.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS YET OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
1313. pcola57




TornadoRaiders.com‏@tornadoraiders4 h
Amazing photos from our Photographer Sam Glover from 5/25/13 near Ansley, NE of LP cell at night. Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A 5.6 quake occurred in NW Panama near border with Costa Rica.


hmm sounds interesting earthquake and a storm reminds me of us here in cayman back in 04 we had Ivan then a few months later where everything was still in rubble we had a 6.7 earthquake one of the largest in a long while (our largest is a mag 7.0)
1316. DDR
Good morning
Heavy rain showers in parts of Trinidad,almost 2 inches in parts.
1317. SLU
Quoting DDR:
Good morning
Heavy rain showers in parts of Trinidad,almost 2 inches in parts.

lot more coming

The SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk for hail today.



Still 10% hatched for tornadoes.
I see that we're dealing with two red zones ...the moderate risk over KS/NE and the high risk of formation for 92E.


It could be very interesting in the weather world today...
1321. ncstorm
Good Morning..CMC got doom written all over it..







1322. JNTenne
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm sounds interesting earthquake and a storm reminds me of us here in cayman back in 04 we had Ivan then a few months later where everything was still in rubble we had a 6.7 earthquake one of the largest in a long while (our largest is a mag 7.0)
Where you on the island when Ivan hit?
1323. DDR
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lot more coming


Hey cayman,i love it :D
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..CMC got doom written all over it..










Joins w the trough, deepens like a noreaster....dumps TONS of rain.....

Gotta love the CMC..
EARLY TROPICAL MISCHIEF: The Atlantic/Gulf hurricane season begins Saturday, and right on time the GFS continues to advertise tropical storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico during the first week of June. This idea has been on the table for 10 days or so, and SSTs and the upper pattern support the concept. The 06Z GFS takes the system from the tip of the Yucatan and into the Florida Big Bend region around Cedar Key June 6-7. If this happens to be correct, then Alabama could remain on the dry west side of the circulation, but of course nobody knows what will happen now.

Early season tropical systems rarely become hurricanes, and flooding is the main threat. Just something to keep watching in coming days. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

-AlabamaWx
1326. Grothar


1327. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Hey cayman,i love it :D

Coming down heavy here right now.
Plenty more coming in from the south-east as well.

It's cold, man !
1328. pottery
Hello, Grothar.
Have you seen my blob recently ?
Quoting JNTenne:
Where you on the island when Ivan hit?

well yeah I don't go off island for storms. I stay either at home or my secondary home or shelter. during Ivan I was at my house for a short while but then my mum and dad came and told me to grab my stuff, we went to my other house, but then my sister who worked at walker law firm at the time got us to shelter at the firm. so yeah early stages of Ivan we were in west bay(where both of my house one is sea side the other inland) then we moved to the capital george town(where my sisters office was at the time) and stayed all they way through.

we would have been better off staying at my house(beachside).
Hi pottery. Do you have the stats on the rainfall so far in May over there? Here in San Juan 10.30 inches has fallen so far.
Quoting DDR:

Hey cayman,i love it :D

soon I'll be loving it too

1332. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi pottery. Do you have the stats on the rainfall so far in May over there? Here in San Juan 10.30 inches has fallen so far.

At my house (central Trinidad) 84 mm (about 3.5" for May).
Pretty normal for the transition month of May, although wetter than recent years.
1333. Grothar
Poor Florida.Something bad is always happening..
I want this storm to come to GA....probably wont rain much again until it does....no rain other than that forecasted for weeks.
1336. Grothar
Quoting pottery:
Hello, Grothar.
Have you seen my blob recently ?


No, but I would wonder a guess you haven't either!

How you doing, pottmon!
Quoting pottery:

At my house (central Trinidad) 84 mm (about 3.5" for May).
Pretty normal for the transition month of May, although wetter than recent years.


Here the transition month has been above normal as those 10.30 inches are 5.29 inches above normal to this date.
Quoting Grothar:


What,also off Africa?
Quoting Grothar:

nice
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.

1341. Grothar
It would appear the NCEP see some type of early development off the African coast.

People are paying attention to the storm in the caribbean but the models have also been showing another storm north of P.R.Is it tropical or possibly sub?.On the models I looked at it looks tropical to me.,.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.



Its been agreeing with the genesis of the system for a long time, its just where it takes it after that that's an issue, whether into the SE or up the east coast....

But storm track is impossible 250+hrs out...

Somewhere NW and through or past though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
People are paying attention to the storm in the caribbean but the models have also been showing another storm north of P.R.Is it tropical or possibly sub?.On the models I looked at it looks tropical to me.,.


It was a small low pressure area of no consequence....
Been there on and off.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Its been agreeing with the genesis of the system for a long time, its just where it takes it after that that's an issue, whether into the SE or up the east coast....

But storm track is impossible 250+hrs out...

Somewhere NW and through or past though.


Not really. It would develop the system, then not develop it for another few runs. Recently, it has developed the system on just about every run.
Quoting Grothar:
It would appear the NCEP see some type of early development off the African coast.

ncstorm was talking about that to yesterday night.Some sort of development out there.Also the CFC was was showing by June 9 a early cape verde storm.Funny but if it was right it'd be even more hilarious.
1347. SLU
Quoting Grothar:
It would appear the NCEP see some type of early development off the African coast.



I won't call it development. It's just a strong wave with a low attached that emerges off Africa and as expected, falls apart in a couple days.
1348. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
ncstorm was talking about that to yesterday night.Some sort of development out there.Also the CFC was was showing by June 9 a early cape verde storm.Funny but if it was right it'd be even more hilarious.


Not being funny, but I posted this similar scenario 3 days ago. How's your weather Washi???
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It was a small low pressure area of no consequence....
Been there on and off.
On some model runs of the models it has shown a full blown T.S doing some crazy frujiwara with what would be Andrea once it's near the east coast.
1350. Grothar
Quoting SLU:


I won't call it development. It's just a strong wave with a low attached that emerges off Africa and as expected, falls apart in a couple days.


Same thing happens to me after cleaning my yard, SLU. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Same thing happens to me after cleaning my yard, SLU. :)
My weather has been beautiful Gro although a little on the chilly side for this time of year.By the middle of the week we'll be talking about 80's and then by Thursday we'll be talking about 90's.
1352. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


No, but I would wonder a guess you haven't either!

How you doing, pottmon!

Touche' ! :):))

Doing very well, all things considered.
Looking at the various forecasts and predictions, and the current overall set-up and thinking "Hmmmmm...."

... which clearly shows a firm and unwavering opinion based on my unique understanding of these things, dont you think ?
GFS operational is getting fairly aggressive with the Caribbean "storm" as well. Climatology favors any system that forms there to turn up into the panhandle or peninsula of Florida. We'll worry about track when and if we get to that point.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.


agreed
1355. hydrus
Last GFS run. Very heavy rain south of Florida.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.




Seems, like you said yesterday,92e will transfer a lot of energy to system in western carribean, BTW looks how vigorous is the wave that is leaving Africa...Early CV season?
Quoting MississippiWx:
GFS operational is getting fairly aggressive with the Caribbean "storm" as well. Climatology favors any system that forms there to turn up into the panhandle or peninsula of Florida. We'll worry about track when and if we get to that point.


agreed
1358. SLU
Quoting Grothar:


Same thing happens to me after cleaning my yard, SLU. :)


lol grothar
Quite a massive tropical cyclone being portrayed by the GFS by 240 hours.
1360. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
My weather has been beautiful Gro although a little on the chilly side for this time of year.By the middle of the week we'll be talking about 80's and then by Thursday we'll be talking about 90's.


I was in Pennsylvania last week and it was in the upper 80's and 90's, then dropped into the 30's. Very strange for this late in the season.
Quoting stormchaser19:



Seems, like you said yesterday,92e will transfer a lot of energy to system in western carribean, BTW looks how vigorous is the wave that is leaving Africa...Early CV season?

possibly check and find out how many CV storms we had in early June from '95-'12 and tell me please
1362. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Quite a massive tropical cyclone being portrayed by the GFS by 240 hours.

So where does that come from ?
East or from the Pacific side ??
Quoting stormchaser19:



Seems, like you said yesterday,92e will transfer a lot of energy to system in western carribean, BTW looks how vigorous is the wave that is leaving Africa...Early CV season?


Well, a lot would have to change shear-wise for the CV season to get an early jump. However, as you showed yesterday, the long range GFS drops shear in the MDR well below normal. However, that could just be GFS-fantasy. We'll see, but obviously any CV-wave development would definitely be against climatology in June.
1364. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Touche' ! :):))

Doing very well, all things considered.
Looking at the various forecasts and predictions, and the current overall set-up and thinking "Hmmmmm...."

... which clearly shows a firm and unwavering opinion based on my unique understanding of these things, dont you think ?



I think we may be doing a lot of hummmmmm, this season. I hope the predictions are wrong, but it looks like the long range forecasters have been doing quite well so far.
1365. pottery
Quoting Grothar:



I think we may be doing a lot of hummmmmm, this season. I hope the predictions are wrong, but it looks like the long range forecasters have been doing quite well so far.


Indeed !
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
How rare or common was this San Antonio flood?

Somewhat uncommon, but not as rare as you would think. Locations along the Balconies Escarpment such as Austin and San Antonio are sometimes referred to as Flash Flood Alley due to the magnitude of the rainfall events that have occurred there historically.

Link
Quoting pottery:

So where does that come from ?
East or from the Pacific side ??

a bit of both from monsoon trof down SE and from 92E
kinda Alma/Arthur situation E Pac crossing over to Caribbean
1368. SLU
Real heavy stuff in Trinidad and Tobago this morning. Tobago just reported sustained winds of 32mph (10-min average) at 10am and a gust to 40mph an hour ago.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
1369. Grothar
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, a lot would have to change shear-wise for the CV season to get an early jump. However, as you showed yesterday, the long range GFS drops shear in the MDR well below normal. However, that could just be GFS-fantasy. We'll see, but obviously any CV-wave development would definitely be against climatology in June.
That's what we said in 2010..and we got a near tropical depression in the Atlantic..
1371. SLU
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

possibly check and find out how many CV storms we had in early June from '95-'12 and tell me please


Zero but there were tropical depressions there in June 2000 and 2003 which did not make it to TS strength ... not to mention the "unnamed" TS at least in my books that formed in the CATL in June 2010 that the NHC didn't classify.
1372. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

a bit of both from monsoon trof down SE and from 92E
kinda Alma/Arthur situation E Pac crossing over to Caribbean

Thanks.
See post 1368, wind reports from Tobago.
I'm going to keep watching this Blob.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what we said in 2010..and we got a near tropical depression in the Atlantic..


Well, going with climatology on something like a CV development in June is obviously the smarter decision. It just doesn't really happen this early.
1374. ncstorm




invest 92 E moving more north
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, going with climatology on something like a CV development in June is obviously the smarter decision. It just doesn't really happen this early.
I'm not saying it's going to happen.But sometimes climatology doesn't apply.I remember this from doc's old blogs


"this is the 2005 season these rules don't apply here"

I think he said that last year as well for the 2012 season at some point in time.
the system the gfs is showing is a broad low pressure that is monsoonal and also pieces coming from the east pacific. that tends to lead to a large and messy storm. the pattern however does favor the first named storm of the atlantic basin to form sometime in early june in the caribbean.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not saying it's going to happen.But sometimes climatology doesn't apply.I remember this from doc's old blogs


"this is the 2005 season these rules don't apply here"

I think he said that last year as well for the 2012 season at some point in time.


Lol. True! Let's hope we don't have one of those seasons.
1379. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not saying it's going to happen.But sometimes climatology doesn't apply.I remember this from doc's old blogs


"this is the 2005 season these rules don't apply here"

I think he said that last year as well for the 2012 season at some point in time.

True.
Especially as the Climate changes, and the parameters shift around.

We have never been here before......
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

possibly check and find out how many CV storms we had in early June from '95-'12 and tell me please


I'm not saying that this in particular will develop, just saying is really strange have this type of T.Wave so early in the season,therefore, i'm talking About late July (20th) to that is what I'm referring( To early CV)...Would be very strange see a CV storm or Hurricane this early...BTW someone knows when was the earliest CV hurricane or TS..TIA
Quoting Grothar:


I was in Pennsylvania last week and it was in the upper 80's and 90's, then dropped into the 30's. Very strange for this late in the season.


We went from 92 and storms on Wednesday to 33 degrees Friday morning a little south of PA. Our friends in Houtzdale, PA said they had frost Saturday morning. It was a strange weekend, but was a welcome change- now the heat is turned back up again.
1382. hydrus
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.

The model run are reminding me of 1966,s Alma.
1383. SLU
Quoting SLU:
Real heavy stuff in Trinidad and Tobago this morning. Tobago just reported sustained winds of 32mph (10-min average) at 10am and a gust to 40mph an hour ago.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


The US vice president Joe Biden is due in Trinidad today. He's gonna get lots of showers of blessings Trini style.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ensembles are getting even more aggressive with the Western Caribbean tropical system. It seems like the GFS operational is finally beginning to agree on a consistent basis.


wow...look at that high over the mid-atlantic...
Quoting hydrus:
The model run are reminding me of 1966,s Alma.


would be epic, if the system can reach to that intensity!!!!!!
1386. SLU
Quoting stormchaser19:


I'm not saying that this in particular will develop, just saying is really strange have this type of T.Wave so early in the season,therefore, i'm talking About late July (20th) to that is what I'm referring( To early CV)...Would be very strange see a CV storm or Hurricane this early...BTW someone knows when was the earliest CV hurricane or TS..TIA


The San Antonio Hurricane, also known as the St. Lucia Hurricane. On June 13, 1780 a hurricane "caused deaths and losses" on Puerto Rico, after having also struck St. Lucia, where it killed around 4,000 to 5,000. It later went on to the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane #2 1933



TS Ana 1979



1387. ncstorm
06z Nogaps.

seems some of the models want to do an Allen Iverson "crossover" and send the Low over to the BOC..

last frame of the 180 hour run
Quoting ncstorm:
06z Nogaps.

seems some of the models want to do an Allen Iverson "crossover" and send the Low over to the BOC..

last frame of the 180 hour run

Well,the Gulf(sst)is above normal now!!
1389. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

So where does that come from ?
East or from the Pacific side ??


It's hard to say, but I think that the energy comes from the Atlantic side. It "might" be associated with 92E as the GFS is showing that system making landfall a few days before this system begins to take shape in the Atlantic. As I've said so many times, consistency is key, and the GFS is starting to become consistent which is a good sign.
1391. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's hard to say, but I think that the energy comes from the Atlantic side. It "might" be associated with 92E as the GFS is showing that system making landfall a few days before this system begins to take shape in the Atlantic. Consistency is key, and the GFS is starting to become consistent which is a good sign.

Thanks. Appreciate that.
1392. ncstorm
Quoting hydrus:


seems South Florida is 'bought to get a lot of rain..
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather5 min
A levee along Beaver Creek in Butler County, IA has failed and will impact the town of New Hartford this morning.
1394. ncstorm
The 00z Euro is showing nothing..

last frame..

1395. ncstorm
this is the latest from the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion..someone is talking about it now..

CANADIAN MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HERALD THE START OF THE ATLC BASIN
TROPICAL SEASON WITH VARIATIONS OF A SYSTEM SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
ERN GULF/SERN CONUS/WRN ATLC REGION. SUFFICIENTLY FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATE A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW THAT RESPECTIVE MEANS
DISPLAY NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURE.
1396. hydrus
NAEFS is still showing two systems...Link
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
945 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...


* UNTIL 345 PM CDT MONDAY

* AT 941 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT FLOOD WATERS FROM
BEAVER CREEK HAVE CAUSED A BREACH ALONG TERRACE AVENUE...
APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE WEST OF NEW HARTFORD. FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LOCATIONS EAST OF TERRACE AVENUE INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE TOWN OF NEW HARTFORD.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEW HARTFORD.

FLOOD WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NEW HARTFORD. IF YOU
ARE THREATENED BY THESE FLOOD WATERS...SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL ONE...
ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&
1398. ncstorm
7 day precip map

1399. bappit
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, going with climatology on something like a CV development in June is obviously the smarter decision. It just doesn't really happen this early.

Climatology is the benchmark for no skill. So I think saying the smart decision is climatology says a lot.
Quoting ncstorm:
7 day precip map

Quoting Luisport:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather5 min
A levee along Beaver Creek in Butler County, IA has failed and will impact the town of New Hartford this morning.
Anyone with more info on this?
1401. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's hard to say, but I think that the energy comes from the Atlantic side. It "might" be associated with 92E as the GFS is showing that system making landfall a few days before this system begins to take shape in the Atlantic. As I've said so many times, consistency is key, and the GFS is starting to become consistent which is a good sign.


In this case the Euro is not needed for a consensus?
Good Morning. I live in the Big Bend/Panhandle and am not concerned about a storm up in these parts at the moment in early June regardless of what some of the models might be saying................ :)

Another E-Pac system about to get going is the big picture at the moment and looks like it will be a doozy from the looks of it. I am going to stick with the assumption (my personal opinion only) that we will not see any significant activity in the Caribbean until things quiet down in the E-Pac which might take several weeks.

Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MOC033-095-107-177-195-281500-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1000 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...MISSOURI RIVER NEAR NAPOLEON...WAVERLY

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CRESTS MAY VARY IF ACTUAL RAINFALL OR RUNOFF IS GREATER OR LESS THAN ANTICIPATED.

LOCATION: MISSOURI RIVER AT NAPOLEON
FLOOD STAGE: 17.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: NOT AVAILABLE
FORECAST CREST: 17.1 FEET SATURDAY JUN 01
AT 17.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS UNPROTECTED BY LEVEES BEGIN TO FLOOD.

LOCATION: MISSOURI RIVER AT WAVERLY
FLOOD STAGE: 20.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 10.0 FEET AT 9 AM MONDAY
FORECAST CREST: 20.3 FEET SATURDAY JUN 01

LATER STATEMENTS...POSSIBLY WARNINGS...WILL BE ISSUED AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1408. hydrus
.
Quoting ncstorm:
06z Nogaps.

seems some of the models want to do an Allen Iverson "crossover" and send the Low over to the BOC..

last frame of the 180 hour run


#1387: ncstorm, that rain band in the model would fill up the Highland lakes or close in Austin. Happy Memorial day and thanks for that hopeful frame.. one million+
Central Texans would rejoice.
New GFS has this in the bay of campeche at 162hrs.....

shoots NW as a weak low and crosses FL north of tampa...