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Moore Tornado an EF-5; $2 Billion Damage Estimate: 3rd Costliest Tornado in History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on May 22, 2013

The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 is now ranked an EF-5, making it one of only 59 U.S. tornadoes to achieve that distinction since record keeping began in 1950. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma announced Tuesday that their damage survey teams found an area of EF-5 damage near Briarwood Elementary School, with winds of 200 - 210 mph indicated. There were no EF-5 tornadoes observed in 2012, and the last time the U.S. had an EF-5 was on May 24, 2011, when the Oklahoma towns of Calumet, El Reno, Piedmont, and Guthrie were hit by an EF-5 with 210+ mph winds that killed nine people. The maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was a huge 1.3 miles. Detailed damage survey information in Google Earth Format provided by the Norman, OK NWS office shows that the typical width of the EF-0 and greater damage swath was about 0.6 miles, and the EF-4 damage area was about 0.1 miles across at its widest. EF-4 damage occurred along approximately 4 miles of the tornado's 17-mile long path. The damage swath from the May 20, 2013 tornado as it cut through the most densely built up portions of Moore was roughly 1.5 times as wide as the one from the May 3, 1999 EF-5 tornado. That tornado was the 4th costliest in history ($1.4 billion 2011 dollars), so it is a good bet that the 2013 Moore tornado will end up being even more expensive. This morning, the Oklahoma Insurance Department said the preliminary tornado damage estimate could top $2 billion. This would make the 2013 Moore tornado the 2nd most expensive tornado in history (as ranked by NOAA/SPC) or 3rd most expensive (as ranked by insurance broker Aon Benfield.) The nine billion-dollar tornadoes (2013 dollars) are:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.9 billion
2) Tuscaloosa, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $2.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
3) Moore, Oklahoma, May 20, 2013, $2 billion
4) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.8 billion
5) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 1970, $1.5 billion
6) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
7) Hackleburg, Alabama, April 27, 2011, $1.3 billion (not in SPC's list)
8) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
9) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion


Figure 1. The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)


Figure 2. The damage swath of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013. EF-4 damage (red colors) occurred along roughly 4 miles of the 17-mile path, and the EF-4 damage swath was up to 0.1 miles wide. The tornado's maximum width of 1.3 miles (EF-0 and greater damage) occurred over a relatively small portion of the path, before the storm reached Moore. Image credit: NWS Norman.


Figure 3. On May 20, 2013, a supercell thunderstorm in central Oklahoma spawned a destructive tornado that passed just south of Oklahoma City. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this natural-color image of the storm system at 2:40 p.m. Central Daylight Time (19:40 Universal Time), just minutes before the devastating twister began. The red line on the image depicts the tornado’s track. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

There have been bigger tornadoes
The 1.3 mile maximum width of the 2013 Moore tornado's damage swath was not a record. Wikipedia documents that the EF-3 Edmonson, Texas tornado of May 31, 1968 had a damage path width between 2 and 3 miles (3.2 and 4.8 km) wide. The EF-4 Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska tornado on May 22, 2004 was of similar size, with a damage path up to 2.5 miles wide. Doppler radar measurements indicate that the May 4, 1999 Mulhall, Oklahoma EF-4 tornado--which thankfully passed mostly over farmland--would have caused damage over a path 4 miles wide at its peak size, had it encountered a built-up area. The EF-5 tornado that devastated Greensburg, Kansas on May 4, 2007 was 1.7 miles wide.


Figure 4. Damage swath of the Wilber - Hallam, Nebraska EF-4 tornado of May 22, 2004 was up to 2.5 miles wide, making it one of the largest tornadoes on record.


Figure 5. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, May 22, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. You can follow today's severe weather from our Severe Weather page.

No tornadoes reported on Tuesday; "Slight Risk" of severe weather on Wednesday
The severe weather outbreak of May 18 - 22 peaked on Sunday and Monday. We did not record any tornadoes on Tuesday, though there were many reports of large hail and damaging winds, including three thunderstorms with wind gusts over 74 mph. Tuesday was the first day since May 14 that no tornadoes were recorded in the U.S. And after issuing four consecutive "Moderate Risk" outlooks for severe weather, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is going with only a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Wednesday in the U.S., with the main severe weather action expected to affect portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. The primary threat will be straight-line wind damage and large hail, though we can't rule out a few tornadoes. During the three-day period May 18 - May 20, 70 tornadoes (preliminary) were recorded by SPC.


Video 1. Charles Cook caught the birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado at Newcastle, OK. It moved from there to Moore where it caused catastrophic devastation.


Video 2. NOAA's GOES-East satellite collected this view of the storm system that spawned a deadly tornado over Moore, Oklahoma on May 20, 2013. The animation runs from 10:45 a.m. through 6:45 p.m., Central Daylight Time. Images courtesy NASA GOES Project Science: ‪http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/‬

The Norman, OK NWS office has an excellent page with detailed info on the Moore tornado.

I did a 10-minute Skype interview with democracynow.org on Tuesday morning, discussing the Moore tornado.

I greatly appreciate all the valuable links members of the WU community have posted here, and I have used many of them in my posts over the past day. Keep up the great work!

How to help
Portlight Strategies, an organization that supports disaster victims with disabilities, will be working with shelter operators and disability stakeholder organizations in Oklahoma to serve the needs of people with disabilities. Further information and how to offer additional support can be found on their website.

Donations can be made to American Red Cross disaster relief at redcross.org/weather or by texting WEATHER to 90999 to donate $10.

Donations can be made on The Salvation Army's website or by texting STORM to 80888 to donate $10. You can also call to make donations of other monetary amounts at (800) 725-2769.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

D.C has a tornado shield around us.So while other counties are getting rocked we are protected.lol.


General Satellite Messages

*Update#9: *GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode while the anomaly
is investigated. There is no new information or estimated return to
service at this time. *
*GOES-14 imaging should be available starting at approximately 0600 UTC
on May 23, 2013.*
*GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice.*
Quoting Bluestorm5:
To be honest, it really surprised me Louisiana doesn't get stronger tornadoes... but maybe because it's so far south from cold air.


You say that about Louisiana, but then how come Central and Southeast Texas get them? ;)
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C has a tornado shield around us.So while other counties are getting rocked we are protected.lol.

The US invested in a invisible atmospheric wall that caps off strong storms from forming. ;)
NOVA on PBS is airing an old (from 2004)episode tonight "Hunt for the Supertwister" which has a lot about the 1999 Moore tornado in it. Science will be slightly out of date.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
To be honest, it really surprised me Louisiana doesn't get stronger tornadoes... but maybe because it's so far south from cold air.


That and we typically only get bitten by the "tail end" of frontal troughs, where the shear is not really maximized, and where instability seems to be farther north.
Quoting Chucktown:
Well, this is certainly good news about the NWS furloughs in response to the tornadoes over the last few days.

Link
Would be much better if they would just cut the stupidness with the sequester and get a real working budget, imo.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:


You say that about Louisiana, but then how come Central and Southeast Texas get them? ;)
Maybe because Texas is closer to the Rockies ;)
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C has a tornado shield around us.So while other counties are getting rocked we are protected.lol.
Just looked up DC on Tornado History Project... only two tornadoes? That's very impressive.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


IR
CRS, have you guys gotten any rain the last 2 days?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The US invested in a invisible atmospheric wall that caps off strong storms from forming. ;)

They put one in Detroit too, it has worked numerous times... ;) :(
One example is today, the "storms" where nothing more than a light to moderate shower and some minor wind gusts.
GOES-13 outage
May 22nd, 2013


GOES-13 suffered an anomaly overnight: the satellite is no longer pointed towards the Earth for as yet unknown reasons. The anomaly started at 03:40 UTC on 22 May, and at 04:29 UTC, GOES-West (GOES-15) began a 30-minute full disk scan schedule.

GOES-14, in standby mode at 105.5 W longitude, has been activated; the first images from GOES-14 will be available at 05:00 UTC 23 May. There are no plans now to move GOES-14 from its current position. In the meantime, GOES engineers are working on a solution to GOES-13′s problems. An update from the Environmental Satellite Processing Center (ESPC) is scheduled for around Noon eastern time (see NOAA NESDIS GOES Special Bulletins). Note that GOES-14 data will *not* be relayed via GOES-13 — so ground station users will need to reposition their antennas to receive GOES-14 direct readout data.
The Killer Tornado of 1928.

This inspired the Nebraska state legislature to require that all schools have an underground shelter with capacity to hold all the students and personnel.

A decision Oklahoma would be wise to emulate.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just looked up DC on Tornado History Project... only two tornadoes? That's very impressive.



Does it count this?

Smithsonian Magazine says there have been 8 tornadoes in Washington DC.
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C has a tornado shield around us.So while other counties are getting rocked we are protected.lol.


You can thank all the hot air from our B.S. politicians for that shield.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The Killer Tornado of 1928.

This inspired the Nebraska state legislature to require that all schools have an underground shelter with capacity to hold all the students and personnel.

A decision Oklahoma would be wise to emulate.
There was a fair amount of discussion about this yesterday. I can understand the concerns with the clay soil in central OK. However, I do think some measures should be put in place to reinforce specific areas of all schools so that there is a safe place within speedy reach of the school population. Lead times on tornado formation and track information are getting longer on average, but the improvement in forecasting doesn't benefit the impacted population very much if there isn't an effective shelter available.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Tornado History Project is a nice database for tornadoes within a particular state.

Louisiana has experienced one F5 (2-21-1971) that killed 47 and injured 510. There have been nine F4s that have caused a collective 52 deaths.

And on and on...

By the looks of it, Michigan is way overdue for a violent tornado. It has been 36 years in all of MI (37 in SE MI) since the last F4 tornado, even longer for a F5. The average for SE MI is every 5 or 6 years. The clock is ticking.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Does it count this?

Smithsonian Magazine says there have been 8 tornadoes in Washington DC.
I think Tornado History Project only go back to 50s, explaining 2 tornadoes.

NWS Sterling got a better list:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/Historic_Events/DC -tornado-events.htm
With the addition of the Moore tornado, Oklahoma and Alabama are now tied for the highest number of F/EF5s in a U.S. state, at 7. Just as a random statistic, the collective F/EF5s in Oklahoma have resulted in 96 dead, while the F/EF5s in Alabama have resulted in 231 deaths.
Quoting MississippiWx:


You can think all the hot air from our B.S. politicians for that shield.
Lol.I knew they were useful for something.
I also saw that page Bluestorm. Thanks for posting :)
As it's a bit quiet. Was there a reason why some of us got spam emails in our WU-Mail boxes?
Quoting AussieStorm:
As it's a bit quiet. Was there a reason why some of us got spam emails in our WU-Mail boxes?


Check out auburn's blog about that. There have been reports of trackers embedded in that spam.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the addition of the Moore tornado, Oklahoma and Alabama are now tied for the highest number of F/EF5s in a U.S. state, at 7. Just as a random statistic, the collective F/EF5s in Oklahoma have resulted in 96 dead, while the F/EF5s in Alabama have resulted in 231 deaths.


Have more people in the USA died from F-4 or F-5 tornadoes?
Quoting AussieStorm:
As it's a bit quiet. Was there a reason why some of us got spam emails in our WU-Mail boxes?


I dunno. Here's mine:

I came across your profile in the site, ()i know we don't know each

other befor now,but knowing some one starts a day,my name is pahaly

nechwa,i am a girl and i will like you to contact me with my email(

pahalynechwa@yahoo.com) so that we can know each other and i will tell

you about my self and my picture for better understanding.

pahalynechwa@yahoo.com

pahaly.


I felt so elated.
531. fo
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Where can I get this imagery (for free)?
Yes many long term Washingtonians know about the 1814 tornado and if it were to happen today talk about a Hollywood disaster in the making.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Have more people in the USA died from F-4 or F-5 tornadoes?
EF4/EF5 are only 1% of all tornadoes, but 90% deaths of all tornado deaths.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Have more people in the USA died from F-4 or F-5 tornadoes?

I don't know for sure, but my educated guess would be from F4/EF4 tornadoes. Whether it's an F4 or an F5, it still levels buildings, and there have been many more F4s than F5s.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno. Here's mine:

I came across your profile in the site, ()i know we don't know each

other befor now,but knowing some one starts a day,my name is pahaly

nechwa,i am a girl and i will like you to contact me with my email(

pahalynechwa@yahoo.com) so that we can know each other and i will tell

you about my self and my picture for better understanding.

pahalynechwa@yahoo.com

pahaly.


I felt so elated.

I got the same spam mail.
Quoting fo:


Where can I get this imagery (for free)?
not free but you can get a 14 day free trial run

its less than 10 dollars a month to have it I go with monthly plan from mid may till mid nov

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
There was a fair amount of discussion about this yesterday. I can understand the concerns with the clay soil in central OK. However, I do think some measures should be put in place to reinforce specific areas of all schools so that there is a safe place within speedy reach of the school population. Lead times on tornado formation and track information are getting longer on average, but the improvement in forecasting doesn't benefit the impacted population very much if there isn't an effective shelter available.


Baha,

There is. But it is piecemeal, and up to the local school districts. Two elementary schools here (where I live) are being renovated/rebuilt. They are including plans to provide above ground shelters that can withstand all but the most violent tornadoes in both of them..

However, that is only two out of the 10 schools present in the town. The other 8 have nothing.

And there is a recent push that people here "accept personal responsibility". However, this does nothing for those that live in apartment complexes. as was illustrated in this interview:

Moore couple survives in storm ditch: Moore couple left apartment to find shelter and say they were turned away at local bank


Quoting Bluestorm5:
Don't be afraid. For one person to see a single tornado is very rare unless you chase them. You'll be under tornado warning maybe at least once or twice in life, but you're likely to never see them. I've lived in Tornado Alley and Carolina Alley for 18 years and I've never seen tornado ever. Closest call was 5 miles away on April 16, 2011 when EF3 went through my county. I've seen damage from other EF3 in Sanford and it's pretty sobering. But I promise you that you're very unlikely to get hit by one. You still have to go to shelter if you do get a warning. Atlanta metro area is known for many close calls to downtown (some hit the city).

I have been under 5 waings siince 2009 anr nothing happened. Hope it goes that way on...
But i know the reality
Quoting wxchaser97:

I got the same spam mail.
that individual has been removed from seeing the site and no longer able to send mail
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know for sure, but my educated guess would be from F4/EF4 tornadoes. Whether it's an F4 or an F5, it still levels buildings, and there have been many more F4s than F5s.


I think you are right.

It's not possible to perform this sorty of analysis for the data we have but many of the deaths from tornadoes which reached F-5 status at some point occurred when the tornadoes were 'only' F4 strength.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I got the same spam mail.


I got that too
Link History on D.C tornado's capital weather gang...
I like the DC weather gang a lot!
Join us in Atlanta

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Portlight Strategies, Inc. in partnership w/ Brain Dance & Weather Underground is pleased to announce: The Getting It Right Conference: Shelter & Transportation Accessibility for People with Disabilities. We will bring together the disability community with community first responders to dispel false information & facilitate discussion of the real needs of the community with respect to evacuation and sheltering; draw upon the recent, first-hand experience of people with disabilities, & disaster responders, to define the issues we face, & launch a collaborative effort to address them proactively;
focus on simple, easily executable solutions for evacuation transportation & short-term shelter for all people with disabilities, addressing issues of mobility, communication, & cognition; and identify key points to address in planning guidelines & training materials, to be compiled after the conference & incorporated with our TRUE Shelter preparedness program.

[www.portlight.org/conference]
Good thing I haven't got the mail yet.
One more year!
91E is back.

EP, 91, 2013052300, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1018W, 20, 1009, DB
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I got that too


Did you get those e-mails today .. Auburn has a blog opened about it ..
First Day schedule

AGENDA

Monday, June 3, 2013

4:00pm – 6:30pm – Registration

6:30pm – 6:40pm - Welcome, Overview & Conference Expectations, Paul Timmons, Executive Director, Portlight Strategies, Inc.

6:40pm – 7:40pm- Dinner (Provided)

7:40pm–8:30pm- Dr. Jeff Masters, Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground

Dr. Masters co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. He’ll discuss current weather and environmental trends, and why we can expect to see more storms like Sandy



Full AGENDA
F4/EF4 killed 2,300+ people since 1950. F5/EF5 killed 1,300+ people since 1950. So F4/EF4 killed more people because it's more common. However, the average death per tornado for F5/EF5 is a lot higher than average death per tornado for F4/EF4. 540 F4/EF4 vs. 59 F5/EF5.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I got the same spam mail.


And here I thought I was special. Guess not. :/
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The US invested in a invisible atmospheric wall that caps off strong storms from forming. ;)

Speak of the devil, and he shall appear. Look what just happened. A strong storm was headed right toward me and then it went around me.
Quoting BahaHurican:
There was a fair amount of discussion about this yesterday. I can understand the concerns with the clay soil in central OK. However, I do think some measures should be put in place to reinforce specific areas of all schools so that there is a safe place within speedy reach of the school population. Lead times on tornado formation and track information are getting longer on average, but the improvement in forecasting doesn't benefit the impacted population very much if there isn't an effective shelter available.


But many places have politicians who are anti-government funding. So, they have no backing for gov funds for anything that helps the common folkes. I read some OK politicians vetoed help for Sandy. How can they ask for funding for OK when they didn't want funding for elsewhere hit by natural disaster as well? Irony I suppose for them. But those who oppose government and funding for help...can't go and ask for it when it hits them like only they are worth having it I reckon. there's a reason for government help and taxes, and those who rally against it, need to open their eyes...but sadly only do when it affects them or their city/state.
Quoting KoritheMan:


And here I thought I was special. Guess not. :/


Awww. You're alright, Kori.
Quoting whitewabit:


Did you get those e-mails today .. Auburn has a blog opened about it ..


Got two from that lovere (whoever that is) on May 20 at about 6:50 a.m.
I'll check his blog thanks.

Quoting KoritheMan:


And here I thought I was special. Guess not. :/

Don't worry, you're special in your own ways ;)

Did you finish the updated TCR list? If so, message me pls.
Since we are now in the 8-10 day frame of where models are hinting at development in the Western Caribbean, I thought it would be a good idea to bring up the GFS predicted 500mb heights and the best analogs to the predicted 500mb heights. Of course, this is highly dependent on the upper pattern the GFS is predicting at this time period and not taking into consideration what the other models see at that time. However, this has been a decent tool to use in the past when determining tracks of tropical cyclones and sometimes development. On the bottom right of the 8 to 10 day 500mb analog composite map from the GFS, it gives the top analogs from years past. Two that stood out to me were the June 12, 2005 and the June 4th, 2005 analog. Around that time period (June 8), Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Western Caribbean from a large messy area of disturbed weather similar to what we should have at the beginning of June in this area of the world. Here's the 500mb analog composite:



Arlene became a 70mph tropical storm, but she battled shear all the way until landfall as would be expected from a storm moving north in that area of the world this time of the year. This is just a thought that I had and I thought it was interesting since comparing patterns from the past is a good tool for predicting what will happen. This obviously isn't a guarantee and doesn't really increase the odds of anything forming, but it does show that a system has formed in this area of the world in the recent past with a similar 500mb setup.

Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


But many places have politicians who are anti-government funding. So, they have no backing for gov funds for anything that helps the common folkes. I read some OK politicians vetoed help for Sandy. How can they ask for funding for OK when they didn't want funding for elsewhere hit by natural disaster as well? Irony I suppose for them. But those who oppose government and funding for help...can't go and ask for it when it hits them like only they are worth having it I reckon. there's a reason for government help and taxes, and those who rally against it, need to open their eyes...but sadly only do when it affects them or their city/state.


What is especially hilarious is that this is an administration that has completely turned down everything and anything to do with "ObamaCare", yet most if not all of the above-ground shelters built in schools since the May, 3 1999 Moore tornado have been done with FEMA federal grants.

Only because it is the town/local school districts smart enough to apply for the monies.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Got two from that lovere (whoever that is) on May 20 at about 6:50 a.m.
I'll check his blog thanks.




i got the same e mail the other day i this nowe got a ch too re move it from my email box
Quoting MississippiWx:
Since we are now in the 8-10 day frame of where models are hinting at development in the Western Caribbean, I thought it would be a good idea to bring up the GFS predicted 500mb heights and the best analogs to the predicted 500mb heights. Of course, this is highly dependent on the upper pattern the GFS is predicting at this time period and not taking into consideration what the other models see at that time. However, this has been a decent tool to use in the past when determining tracks of tropical cyclones and sometimes development. On the bottom right of the 8 to 10 day 500mb analog composite map from the GFS, it gives the top analogs from years past. Two that stood out to me were the June 12, 2005 and the June 4th, 2005 analog. Around that time period (June 8), Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Western Caribbean from a large messy area of disturbed weather similar to what we should have at the beginning of June in this area of the world. Here's the 500mb analog composite:



Arlene became a 70mph tropical storm, but she battled shear all the way until landfall as would be expected from a storm moving north in that area of the world this time of the year. This is just a thought that I had and I thought it was interesting since comparing patterns from the past is a good tool for predicting what will happen. This obviously isn't a guarantee and doesn't really increase the odds of anything forming, but it does show that a system has formed in this area of the world in the recent past with a similar 500mb setup.



Based on the pattern, I can think of three decent track analogs for any potential cyclone developing there:

Abby (1968)
Arlene (2005)
Arthur (2008)
Quoting wxchaser97:

Don't worry, you're special in your own ways ;)

Did you finish the updated TCR list? If so, message me pls.


Nope. Gonna work on that tonight.

EDIT: I have been saving the real-time upper air data from Africa, however.
Quoting BahaHurican:
CRS, have you guys gotten any rain the last 2 days?


nope.. or perhaps just a trace.
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:41 AM GMT on May 23, 2013 2
With the addition of the Moore tornado, Oklahoma and Alabama are now tied for the highest number of F/EF5s in a U.S. state, at 7. Just as a random statistic, the collective F/EF5s in Oklahoma have resulted in 96 dead, while the F/EF5s in Alabama have resulted in 231 deaths



I cant help but wonder the reasoning for that...

A) Its due to a more densely populated area
or
B) People in Alabama are less Educated about tornadoes, or experience less of them so therefor are less likely to react
or
C) The Fact that Alabama is not really considered part of the so called "Tornado Alley", which if you ask me needs to be revised, but ultimately casting a false since of hope
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:41 AM GMT on May 23, 2013 2
With the addition of the Moore tornado, Oklahoma and Alabama are now tied for the highest number of F/EF5s in a U.S. state, at 7. Just as a random statistic, the collective F/EF5s in Oklahoma have resulted in 96 dead, while the F/EF5s in Alabama have resulted in 231 deaths



I cant help but wonder the reasoning for that...

A) Its due to a more densely populated area
or
B) People in Alabama are less Educated about tornadoes, or experience less of them so therefor are less likely to react
or
C) The Fact that Alabama is not really considered part of the so called "Tornado Alley", which if you ask me needs to be revised


D) Not as many people have storm shelters in Alabama
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:41 AM GMT on May 23, 2013 2
With the addition of the Moore tornado, Oklahoma and Alabama are now tied for the highest number of F/EF5s in a U.S. state, at 7. Just as a random statistic, the collective F/EF5s in Oklahoma have resulted in 96 dead, while the F/EF5s in Alabama have resulted in 231 deaths



I cant help but wonder the reasoning for that...

A) Its due to a more densely populated area
or
B) People in Alabama are less Educated about tornadoes, or experience less of them so therefor are less likely to react
or
C) The Fact that Alabama is not really considered part of the so called "Tornado Alley", which if you ask me needs to be revised


All of the above, but also has to do with the terrain - hilly and heavily wooded. So, people don't necessarily see it coming. Not a factor here in OK - except for the far eastern part of the state.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i got the same e mail the other day i this nowe got a ch too re move it from my email box


Im doing a deep scan on your response, ??????

Anyway, I understand what you mean.
Quoting MississippiWx:


D) Not as many people have storm shelters in Alabama
Moore didn't have many storm shelters either. Only about 2% had basements and 15% had a cellar of some sort.
Also,..the Moore storm hit at 3pm...during school

While the other after 6pm when most were home.
Quoting MississippiWx:


D) Not as many people have storm shelters in Alabama


When you move closer to Central and northern counties of Alabama you would be surprised at the amount of storm cellars people have
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Moore didn't have many storm shelters either. Only about 2% had basements and 15% had a cellar of some sort.


There are many variables to that stat, but then you also have to compare it to Alabama's.
Quoting daddyjames:


All of the above, but also has to do with the terrain - hilly and heavily wooded. So, people don't necessarily see it coming. Not a factor here in OK - except for the far eastern part of the state.


Thats true, its very hard to see distances in parts of Alabama unless you find yourself on a farm or a hill
575. skook
Disclaimer, I am not trying to take away at all, what happened in Moore, I just wanted to dig into the cost of these deadly tornadoes a bit more.

I started to look into the top 2 tornadoes, posted in Dr. Masters Link since there is a 50 years difference between the 2, and a similar cost. I looked at things such has overall buildings destroyed, and tried to look at buildings damaged, as well, but couldn't find clear data of damaged buildings, so for the most part, I'm ignored damaged, and only considering destroyed.

When looking at the Topeka Ks, tornado, the overall adjusted cost is 1,735,480,000 adjusted to 2013 numbers. But the few websites, I actually found listed it to be 800 million, but most of these websites(Wikipedia) lacked substantial sources to back the 800 million number up. Buildings destroyed in this storm came out at about 1070. Another thing I looked at is the population of Topeka, which in 1960 was 119,484.

The Joplin tornado ranks first on the 10 costliest list comes in at 2,800,000,000. But when looking at the number of buildings destroyed is about 7000 for just houses alone. The population at the time of the storm was 51,186 estimated.


So whats the point of this post? Really just me rambling. I just picked 2 tornadoes, and wanted to explored the numbers behind the costs, and try to understand it. Comparing the number of buildings destroyed, and than comparing the two sets, did catch my eye, and is a reason, why top 10 lists are great, but there really is a lot more to it, then listing it by the estimated cost.
I got to think Moore got lucky it hits at 3 pm and not 6 pm. I'm assuming most people in Moore works in Oklahoma City just like people in my town work in Raleigh/Durham.
There are so many different factors that you have to consider when talking about why one area had more deaths than another. It's not as simple as listing 1-5 different reasons.
Quoting MississippiWx:


There are many variables to that stat, but then you also have to compare it to Alabama's.


Also thinking about it... Was the tuscaloosa tornado rated a EF4 or EF5?

Cause if it was an EF5 then i can understand why that number would be inflated due to where the tornado struck... a very populated university town
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also thinking about it... Was the tuscaloosa tornado rated a EF4 or EF5?

Cause if it was an EF5 then i can understand why that number would be inflated due to where the tornado struck... a very populated university town


EF-4.
Quoting MississippiWx:


EF-4.


ahh throw that out the window
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


But many places have politicians who are anti-government funding. So, they have no backing for gov funds for anything that helps the common folkes. I read some OK politicians vetoed help for Sandy. How can they ask for funding for OK when they didn't want funding for elsewhere hit by natural disaster as well? Irony I suppose for them. But those who oppose government and funding for help...can't go and ask for it when it hits them like only they are worth having it I reckon. there's a reason for government help and taxes, and those who rally against it, need to open their eyes...but sadly only do when it affects them or their city/state.
Less irony, more hypocracy, IMO. They were backtracking and stuttering all over the place yesterday.

I wouldn't feel so bad about the anti-government funding stance if they were consistent about it - i. e. if they didn't feel it was okay to fund private companies and entities with breaks and kickbacks they don't need.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Thats true, its very hard to see distances in parts of Alabama unless you find yourself on a farm or a hill


Even in OK, you hear in the interviews "I saw it coming and I . . .

The last tornado that came through here - so many people were out and about that it was ridiculous. Was actually on the Discovery Channel (?) program - the episodes where they were cursing the amount of traffic on the roads as they were trying to intercept the tornadoes.

Edit to correct spell "hear"
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


nope.. or perhaps just a trace.

You can have some of what we are getting right now.
Current Radar


24 Hour rain totals
Quoting MississippiWx:
There are so many different factors that you have to consider when talking about why one area had more deaths than another. It's not as simple as listing 1-5 different reasons.


Yea thats true... that stat just struck a thought bubble for me
Not sure if y'all saw this on the news.

Link
Quoting WDEmobmet:


ahh throw that out the window


Yeah, we could probably sit here all night and list reasons for it and a lot of them would be legit.
Guerra Family Video After Hurricane Katrina





Hurricane Preparation 2013




It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Also thinking about it... Was the tuscaloosa tornado rated a EF4 or EF5?

Cause if it was an EF5 then i can understand why that number would be inflated due to where the tornado struck... a very populated university town
Surprising an EF-4 at 190 mph. There was an disagreement between survey teams over EF-4 or EF-5 damage, though. Some teams found EF-5 damage, but other teams found it as EF-4. Because of no clear agreement, Tuscaloosa stayed at EF-4.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, we could probably sit here all night and list reasons for it and a lot of them would be legit.


LOL i would say i would take that action, and test some hypothesis' but then again, yea i know myself better than to follow through with it
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Surprising an EF-4 at 190 mph. There was an disagreement between survey teams over EF-4 or EF-5 damage, though. Some teams found EF-5 damage, but other teams found it as EF-4. Because of no clear agreement, Tuscaloosa stayed at EF-4.


That doesnt make much sense to me, they could have at least called it an EF4.5
NWS Norman said on Twitter that they were supposed to release more information about May 19-20 tornadoes tonight, but I still haven't seen it. I'm also wondering if they found more areas of EF-5 damage other than Briarwood Elementary.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
NWS Norman said on Twitter that they were supposed to release more information about May 19-20 tornadoes tonight, but I still haven't seen it. I'm also wondering if they found more areas of EF-5 damage other than Briarwood Elementary.


When every piece of every house is laying on the ground somewhere, I guess rating doesn't really matter. Just glad the death toll was way wrong.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The Killer Tornado of 1928.

This inspired the Nebraska state legislature to require that all schools have an underground shelter with capacity to hold all the students and personnel.

A decision Oklahoma would be wise to emulate.
Quite honestly, as a limited government conservative, I believe government should stick to what matters. Moore had 3 major tornadoes since 1999. This was the fourth. This matters. Where the heck was the initiative to get secure shelters for all schools? It would be even worse than Syracuse refusing to buy enough snowplows, or NOLA not preparing for flooding rains.
The Quarterly Hail - National Weather Service - Hastings, Nebraska. (pdf)

Some interesting articles including,
Learn about Landspouts
Impact Based Warnings
What a difference a year can make!
Quoting MississippiWx:


When every piece of every house is laying on the ground somewhere, I guess rating doesn't really matter. Just glad the death toll was way wrong.
I just can't imagine what wide-area of EF-5 damage look like. Rating doesn't matter, though. More people died in EF-4 Tuscaloosa than this tornado. And I'm with you on that, Miss. Glad they screwed up doing the death toll.
Quoting MississippiWx:


When every piece of every house is laying on the ground somewhere, I guess rating doesn't really matter. Just glad the death toll was way wrong.

Yeah, what happened with that. It was 24 then 51 then possible 91 now dropped back to 24. Media Hype?

I'm glad in a way only 24 people were killed, could of been a lot more.
NWSBinghamton
Hen egg size hail near Taberg, NY just before 8 PM tonight courtesy of Kaylie Wylubski.




That's some weird looking hail.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, what happened with that. It was 24 then 51 then possible 91 now dropped back to 24. Media Hype?

I'm glad in a way only 24 people were killed, could of been a lot more.

The number of bodies was accidentally double counted.
this think of this if nado haveing to happen in the mid of the night when evere one was sleeping and they had no warning
Quoting AussieStorm:

You can have some of what we are getting right now.
Current Radar


24 Hour rain totals


Would prefer if he would take some of ours, had 15.29"/388mm at my house in Nassau, Bahamas last night.
Quoting MississippiWx:


D) Not as many people have storm shelters in Alabama


F) Geography & Humanoid Reactions

Many people down here in Tennessee and Alabama understand the warnings but want to see the tornado with their own eyes before they take action. With a lot of tornadoes either at night or rain-wrapped, that can be a problem.

Combine that way of thinking with the fact that tornadoes are hard to see past trees and hills (storm chasers don't chase often here), and a potentially dangerous situation becomes even more volatile.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Quite honestly, as a limited government conservative, I believe government should stick to what matters. Moore had 3 major tornadoes since 1999. This was the fourth. This matters. Where the heck was the initiative to get secure shelters for all schools? It would be even worse than Syracuse refusing to buy enough snowplows, or NOLA not preparing for flooding rains.


All of the schools built/rebuilt after the 1999 tornado do have above ground shelters. Even in the smaller communities that were impacted by that tornado. These schools did not have one, as they did not have to be rebuilt. The Moor school district has been actively trying to get grant monies to provide shelters - as the built the schools.
I remain right now very, very surprised the death toll is only at two dozen. After we all watched this nearly mile and a half tornado touch down and move towards Moore and then saw the subsequent helicopter video of catastrophic damage, I thought to myself -- and even added it here ("the fatality count is going to be enormous") -- that the number of deaths would be in the dozens, if not well over 100. I mean, not only was this a Monday afternoon, meaning everybody was at work or school (and on the roads), but this tornado...which we knew while it was in progress was a significant EF3-EF5...was tracking across a city with a population of 55,081 (2010 Census). The helicopter showed entire buildings and neighborhoods leveled, and some houses didn't even exist. Just clean foundation. And you wonder how anybody survived that.

One of the main theories going around, which I agree with, is that everybody was at school or work (the reason we thought the fatality count was going to be high in the first place). The tornado did hit two schools at near maximum intensity, but it was a well-built structure where you had an above-average chance of survival when compared to surrounding homes. Come to find out, the tornado tracked across a mainly residential area, where nobody was home because of their jobs.

Had this tornado occurred an hour or two later, or if its track would have been just a few miles more north, this horrible disaster probably would've been much, much worse.

But then again, it also has to do with the fact that this tornado struck a region very aware of tornadoes. Having been through the 1999 Moore tornado, people in the area probably knew what, and what not, to do. The fact that we were able to watch its whole evolution on air probably helped as well. In a study following the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes, it was found out that most people didn't take shelter because they didn't have any PROOF that the tornado was on the ground, headed towards them, and doing damage. And that's usually how it is. This tornado was the exception, not the rule. I'm just glad it was.
Quoting Tazmanian:
this think of this if nado haveing to happen in the mid of the night when evere one was sleeping and they had no warning


There was an Illinois tornado two days ago with no tornado warning per se on it, yet at the edge of a squall.

But for night tornadoes, NWS stays up through the night for those events, the only difference is except for lightning, no one will be able to visually confirm a tornado. That's what cell phone app/TV/NOAA radio is good for + a storm shelter to ride the storm out.


That outflow boundary, and I'm getting some rain tonight!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, what happened with that. It was 24 then 51 then possible 91 now dropped back to 24. Media Hype?

I'm glad in a way only 24 people were killed, could of been a lot more.
Medical examiner accidently counted the bodies twice in middle of all chaos. They also thought 40 more bodies were on the way (turn out to be false). Media had nothing to do with it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would hardly call a weak, two-closed-isobar low a tropical system, but okay.
Were you implying this had something to do with being tropical or...?
Termites swarming here ...RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN '''
Quoting NasBahMan:


Would prefer if he would take some of ours, had 15.29"/388mm at my house in Nassau, Bahamas last night.
Hey. Was wondering how much you got. I saw pictures of the water still standing in the road near the Super Value in Winton Meadows... looked like 6 - 8 inches of water.
Wish this was me!

A couple people have already seen it, but for those who haven't, here's my blog on the tropics for the day.
Quoting daddyjames:


The Moor school district has been actively trying to get grant monies to provide shelters - as the built the schools.
Cripes, screw the grant money. You have had three EF4 plus tornadoes in just over a decade. Make the case for a millage tax increase to pay for all schools to have an underground shelter. You just can't wait for Uncle Sugar to come through. That is what local governance is supposed to be about. You choose to live in the Tornado Alley bullseye, take the LOCAL steps to protect your schoolkids in school.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I remain right now very, very surprised the death toll is only at two dozen. After we all watched this nearly mile and a half tornado touch down and move towards Moore and then saw the subsequent helicopter video of catastrophic damage, I thought to myself -- and even added it here ("the fatality count is going to be enormous") -- that the number of deaths would be in the dozens, if not well over 100. I mean, not only was this a Monday afternoon, meaning everybody was at work or school (and on the roads), but this tornado...which we knew while it was in progress was a significant EF3-EF5...was tracking across a city with a population of 55,081 (2010 Census). The helicopter showed entire buildings and neighborhoods leveled, and some houses didn't even exist. Just clean foundation. And you wonder how anybody survived that.

One of the main theories going around, which I agree with, is that everybody was at school or work (the reason we thought the fatality count was going to be high in the first place). The tornado did hit two schools at near maximum intensity, but it was a well-built structure where you had an above-average chance of survival when compared to surrounding homes. Come to find out, the tornado tracked across a mainly residential area, where nobody was home because of their jobs.

Had this tornado occurred an hour or two later, or if its track would have been just a few miles more north, this horrible disaster probably would've been much, much worse.


In addition, the schools were immediately put on lockdown, and emails/text messages sent to all parents not to come to the schools as they would not release any of the kids to anyone. Probably saved the lives of many of these kids, and their parents - as the schools were already at dismissal.

There was an interview of a woman who tried (at Briarwood I believe)to pick up her kid - only to find the doors all locked and no one answering. She left to go back home to her shelter (just in time). In that regards, as soon as wether conditions get serious, they get serious. Respectable to say the leaset
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Medical examiner accidently counted the bodies twice in middle of all chaos. They also thought 40 more bodies were on the way (turn out to be false). Media had nothing to do with it.


Ok thanks. I was just wondering. We all know media can hype things.

Btw, Check out this storm shelter in the video.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey. Was wondering how much you got. I saw pictures of the water still standing in the road near the Super Value in Winton Meadows... looked like 6 - 8 inches of water.


Hey Baha, seen water as deep as six feet in some places, some roads still have over two feet of water on them tonight.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I remain right now very, very surprised the death toll is only at two dozen. After we all watched this nearly mile and a half tornado touch down and move towards Moore and then saw the subsequent helicopter video of catastrophic damage, I thought to myself -- and even added it here ("the fatality count is going to be enormous") -- that the number of deaths would be in the dozens, if not well over 100. I mean, not only was this a Monday afternoon, meaning everybody was at work or school (and on the roads), but this tornado...which we knew while it was in progress was a significant EF3-EF5...was tracking across a city with a population of 55,081 (2010 Census). The helicopter showed entire buildings and neighborhoods leveled, and some houses didn't even exist. Just clean foundation. And you wonder how anybody survived that.

One of the main theories going around, which I agree with, is that everybody was at school or work (the reason we thought the fatality count was going to be high in the first place). The tornado did hit two schools at near maximum intensity, but it was a well-built structure where you had an above-average chance of survival when compared to surrounding homes. Come to find out, the tornado tracked across a mainly residential area, where nobody was home because of their jobs.

Had this tornado occurred an hour or two later, or if its track would have been just a few miles more north, this horrible disaster probably would've been much, much worse.

But then again, it also has to do with the fact that this tornado struck a region very aware of tornadoes. Having been through the 1999 Moore tornado, people in the area probably knew what, and what not, to do. The fact that we were able to watch its whole evolution on air probably helped as well. In a study following the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes, it was found out that most people didn't take shelter because they didn't have any PROOF that the tornado was on the ground, headed towards them, and doing damage. And that's usually how it is. This tornado was the exception, not the rule. I'm just glad it was.


Yeah; I thought for sure the death toll would be much higher. This is one situation where I'm actually glad to be wrong.
How does anything get on the news if it is not the media. lol!one and the same.
Quoting Patrap:
Termites swarming here ...RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN '''
Is it raining? I saw that last night... had to spray and ever'thing.
no BahaHurican
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Medical examiner accidently counted the bodies twice in middle of all chaos. They also thought 40 more bodies were on the way (turn out to be false). Media had nothing to do with it.


Yea I have heard this rationality/explanation a couple of times now... but, and I am in no way a mathematician, double counting 24 gives you 48 not 51... Something doens't add up here
Quoting AussieStorm:


Ok thanks. I was just wondering. We all know media can hype things.

Btw, Check out this storm shelter in the video.


It was a combination of both. The medical examiner's office did release an inaccurate count, 51 dead with 40 more anticipated - immediately reported by CNN.

The New york Times (man, their reporting has really gotten shoddy) then picked up the story, and added the two numbers together - making it 91. Here, the local media quoted those figures once, but immediately began calling them into question.
@NJSnowFan Chris Beal
Even the lower elev. at Mount Rainier getting snow. Trees have there leaves already.

Quoting NasBahMan:


Hey Baha, seen water as deep as six feet in some places, some roads still have over two feet of water on them tonight.
I heard it was very bad near Cuthberts [Culbert's? I always call it wrong] Hill area.

Glad I live SW. We had more flooding than usual, but it ran off fairly quickly. Our roads were mostly clear out here by school time, or shortly thereafter.
nm my bad
This Guy gets Dangerously Close to Moore Tornado Until It Tears Into His House


Quoting help4u:
How does anything get on the news if it is not the media. lol!one and the same.
Media was the one promoting the jump to 91, but I do think the ME's office was expecting to see further fatalities from the Plaza Towers school that they never actually saw. It was pretty heartening to have them pulling children out alive there that night after they had recovered the dead bodies. I'm sure the ME's office was VERY glad to have gotten that count too high, instead of too low.
Quoting daddyjames:


All of the schools built/rebuilt after the 1999 tornado do have above ground shelters. Even in the smaller communities that were impacted by that tornado. These schools did not have one, as they did not have to be rebuilt. The Moor school district has been actively trying to get grant monies to provide shelters - as the built the schools.


Just to Put this Argument to Rest; Here You Go:
Why aren't there more storm shelters in Oklahoma?
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Someone posted this map earlier, it shows only 6 total EF5s in OK, but it shows a total of 7 in AL. They are definitely not tied. Alabama holds the record for the most 5's


I believe the site has yet to update, same for the Tornado History place, they have yet to add the most recent Moore tornado in there.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Cripes, screw the grant money. You have had three EF4 plus tornadoes in just over a decade. Make the case for a millage tax increase to pay for all schools to have an underground shelter. You just can't wait for Uncle Sugar to come through. That is what local governance is supposed to be about. You choose to live in the Tornado Alley bullseye, take the LOCAL steps to protect your schoolkids in school.


Totally agree that more should have been done, and a few of the smaller communities did that - built above ground shelters that was open to anyone. However, not all. In fact, Midwest City (one of those impacted by the May 3 1999 tornado) did this:


City No Longer Providing Public Storm Shelters

Effective January 1, 2013, the city of Midwest City will no longer make available public storm shelters. City officials are urging residents to plan and prepare now for severe weather that may occur in the future.

Wonder if they're gonna rethink this.
Quoting Patrap:
no BahaHurican
LOL... maybe it's a seasonal thing...
Quoting help4u:
I say take away the millions of Obama phones given away at election time get a refund and build storm shelters in tornado alley.Or save all the money from green programs that go belly up and spend on the children that live in tornado alley.Maybe Obama could give uo one 5 million dollar vacation to build 4or 5 shelters at schools that don't have storm shelters.
Cut the subsidy to Oil Companies and pay for all the shelters in less than a year.
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:


Just to Put this Argument to Rest; Here You Go:
Why aren't there more storm shelters in Oklahoma?


Yes, posted that yesterday during the discussion ( well the one from WU; in fact, much of that article is "borrowed" from the one posted at WU).

But this does not excuse not building above ground shelters, which they have been incorporating into new school construction.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Cut the subsidy to Oil Companies and pay for all the shelters in less than a year.


Indeed
Quoting help4u:
I say take away the millions of Obama phones given away at election time get a refund and build storm shelters in tornado alley.Or save all the money from green programs that go belly up and spend on the children that live in tornado alley.Maybe Obama could give uo one 5 million dollar vacation to build 4or 5 shelters at schools that don't have storm shelters.


Unfair shot at the current Prez, we could open a discussion of the month long "summer" vacations Bush took while two wars were waging . . . but let's call it even and stop it here.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Media was the one promoting the jump to 91, but I do think the ME's office was expecting to see further fatalities from the Plaza Towers school that they never actually saw. It was pretty heartening to have them pulling children out alive there that night after they had recovered the dead bodies. I'm sure the ME's office was VERY glad to have gotten that count too high, instead of too low.


I was actually watching CNN when Piers Morgan was interviewing the Medical Examiner or someone from that office and they actually broke the news of 91 dead..He asked her at least 3 times about the total of 91 fatalities and she confirmed it each and every time..
Quoting Patrap:
This Guy gets Dangerously Close to Moore Tornado Until It Tears Into His House




I think this Story Takes the Cake:

Tornado birth: Mom endures labor as twister destroys hospital

When a devastating tornado touched down in Moore, Okla., on Monday afternoon, Shayla Taylor was on the upper floor of the local hospital, in active labor with her second child.
As the floor shook “like an earthquake” beneath her and ceiling tiles and insulation fell overhead, the 25-year-old huddled with four nurses, braving both the peak contractions of childbirth and the wrath of the worst twister the veteran Oklahoman had ever endured.
“We were all just sitting there holding each other’s hands and praying,” Taylor told NBC News.
Moore Medical Center, a 46-bed acute care hospital at 700 S. Telephone Road, took a direct hit from the F-5 tornado, with wind speeds that topped 200 miles per hour.
The blow devastated the hospital, as news photos plainly show, ripping away the roof and walls.
After the chaos, Taylor said she heard not the freight train sound described by so many witnesses, but the absolute silence of the storm’s center. Then she opened her eyes.
All of a sudden I could see daylight and the wall was gone,” she said. “I look out and I see I-35 and part of the Warren theater,” which later became the triage center for victims of the tornado that killed 24 and injured more than 230 people.
She had been dilated to 9 centimeters, nearly ready to deliver the baby, when nurses gave her a quick shot to slow labor during the height of the storm.
Taylor was quickly reunited with her husband, Jerome Taylor, 29, who had taken their 4-year-old son, Shaiden, to wait out the tornado with others in the hospital cafeteria. With the help of hospital workers, she was carefully carried through the destroyed building and out to a waiting ambulance, which whisked her 5 miles to another hospital in the Norman Regional Health System.
Three hours later, after doctors determined that the petite Taylor would need a cesarean section due to the baby's size, she delivered Braeden Immanuel, a healthy 8-pound, 3-ounce boy.
“His middle name means ‘God is with us,’” said Taylor. “The name had been picked out for months. Now I know why.”
Taylor is among 30 patients and staffers at Moore Medical Center who survived the tornado, which destroyed the hospital, said Kelly Wells, a health system spokeswoman. No decision has been made yet about whether to rebuild or simply raze the site.
Two days after the storm, Taylor and her family are recovering from the trauma of the chaotic birth. The family can’t locate their car, a Toyota Camry, which had been parked in the hospital lot and is now nowhere to be found.
“I don’t know if it ended up inside the hospital or down the street,” she said.
Their home is safe, however, and Jerome Taylor, who works for The Hartford insurance company, has been overwhelmed trying to help his neighbors cope.
Oklahomans are used to tornado warnings and Taylor said she wasn’t particularly alarmed before Monday’s storm.
“I’m used to sirens,” she said. “If you panicked, you’d be in a constant panic.”
Now, however, she’s thinking twice about living in Tornado Alley.
“The tornadoes always track through here,” she said. “It’s not to say everybody’s going to pack and leave tomorrow, but they start to reconsider things.”


Link



Or we will run the Bush Helo Exit scene from Obama's first Inauguration.


; )
Quoting Astrometeor:


I believe the site has yet to update, same for the Tornado History place, they have yet to add the most recent Moore tornado in there.

The Moore tornado is #59 on the list. Not sure why there's only six in that image. The National Weather Service Southern Region lists 7 F/EF5s in Oklahoma (since 1950 - I should add that's the time period).
Tornado birth: Mom endures labor as twister destroys hospital

The Human spirit is a Marvel,esp a Mother's in Labor.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I heard it was very bad near Cuthberts [Culbert's? I always call it wrong] Hill area.

Glad I live SW. We had more flooding than usual, but it ran off fairly quickly. Our roads were mostly clear out here by school time, or shortly thereafter.


Last night Camperdown Drive just off of Culbert's Hill had 4 1/2' of water, down to about 2' now. I didn't have time to get everywhere, understand couple of places in San Souci between hills had 10' of water.
644. flsky
Anyone know of a good astrological site? I'm curious about what I'm seeing around the moon in Central Florida. TIA
Quoting daddyjames:


Yes, posted that yesterday during the discussion ( well the one from WU; in fact, much of that article is "borrowed" from the one posted at WU).

But this does not excuse not building above ground shelters, which they have been incorporating into new school construction.
dig a trench.put in old school bus. Shelter!!
Quoting ncstorm:


I was actually watching CNN when Piers Morgan was interviewing the Medical Examiner or someone from that office and they actually broke the news of 91 dead..He asked her at least 3 times about the total of 91 fatalities and she confirmed it each and every time..


I am not sure, but the medical examiner's office in Oklahoma city was plagued with so much problems that essentially it took about a year before they found someone willing to take the position (after the previous one was dismissed).

Guess it is still having "issues".

Edit Would to found
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Moore tornado is #59 on the list. Not sure why there's only six in that image. The National Weather Service Southern Region lists 7 F/EF5s in Oklahoma (since 1950 - I should add that's the time period).


Yea i took it down, because they must have just updated it, went back and counted at NWS and their it was 7. You were right TA
Quoting flsky:
Anyone know of a good astrological site? I'm curious about what I'm seeing around the moon in Central Florida. TIA


astrological or astronomical? Could it be a Leo?
More Loss of Life from weather.

1 Dead, 2 Injured, 1 Missing After Field Trip At Lilydale Park


MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — One child is dead, two others are injured and another is missing after a hillside gave way Wednesday during a fourth grade field trip at a St. Paul park, according to Fire Marshal Steve Zaccard.

Police said the two injured children were taken to Regions Hospital. Their conditions are unknown at this time.

Zaccard said multiple crews are searching for the missing child. The effort, however, is now considered a recovery effort, not a rescue mission. The search is taking place in an area that’s 50 feet by 50 feet — roughly the size of a house. The search will go until nightfall, and it will continue Thursday morning.

Crews responded to the scene at Lilydale Regional Park around 1 p.m., where two fourth grade classes from Peter Hobart Elementary were on a field trip, Zaccard said.

The kids were exploring a hillside in the park when the ground gave way. The slide created a sinkhole, which quickly filled with water. Crews initially used their hands in an effort to dig the children out.

Zaccard said the ground is soft from several days of rain, which made rescue efforts difficult. He said water poured into the hole where the unstable soil gave way, making it very dangerous for rescuers on scene. Crews began pumping water out of the hole, and they were forced to suspend efforts for about an hour due to rain. Once the rain stopped, the pumping resumed.

“We’re working with our partners in parks and public works to make the scene safe to continue what’s now become a recovery effort for what might be another victim,” Zaccard said.
The first child was rescued right away. It took crews an hour to get to the second child, who was submerged in water, and 90 minutes to reach the third.

A firefighter was also injured after a rock fell on his head during the search, according to police. He’s expected to be OK.

St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman described the efforts of the first responders as “unbelievably heroic.”

Multiple agencies are on the scene, including crews with shovels and a truck with plywood to help control the slippery situation.

Parents at Peter Hobart Elementary said they were sick and heartbroken when they heard the news. More on that story here.

Lilydale Regional Park is a popular place to search for fossils. Local resident Adam Farrell said people often find shells and leaf imprints on the rocks.

“It’s actually pretty fascinating, especially when you are a little kid, to find yourself a fossil,” Farrell said.

Another school, authorities said, was at the park earlier Wednesday morning.
650. SLU
Just got in after a busy day. Is my PC malfunctioning or has the GEOS satellite imagery been down since last night?

I'm going to bed. I'll have a post on here tomorrow or Friday (and a possible blog) about storm chasers from my future college (UNC Asheville) being in area at time of Texas tornadoes last week and Oklahoma tornadoes this week, including May 19th and 20th. I'm thinking of doing the same thing few years from now while at UNCA.
Quoting daddyjames:


It was a combination of both. The medical examiner's office did release an inaccurate count, 51 dead with 40 more anticipated - immediately reported by CNN.

The New york Times (man, their reporting has really gotten shoddy) then picked up the story, and added the two numbers together - making it 91. Here, the local media quoted those figures once, but immediately began calling them into question.
If it had been Fox instead of CNN eveyone would be going Nuts. Sounds like the Pres. always some else to Blame!!!!
Quoting flsky:
Anyone know of a good astrological site? I'm curious about what I'm seeing around the moon in Central Florida. TIA


I have a program called Stellarium downloaded on my computer, shows the night sky with labels and the compass directions.

Astronomy is cool
Quoting SLU:
Just got in after a busy day. Is my PC malfunctioning or has the GEOS satellite imagery been down since last night?





read back a few page and you have all the info you need
Quoting daddyjames:


Unfair shot at the current Prez, we could open a discussion of the month long "summer" vacations Bush took while two wars were waging . . . but let's call it even and stop it here.
Agreed. I am not interested in the personalities of current politics, so much as I am in the policies [and mindsets that fuel them] that are counterproductive to the welfare and commonwealth of the nation. Things like not funding wx programmes, upgrades and research that can increase public safety are counterproductive; not using the available information to inform policy and make one's discretionary spending more productive is wasteful. And that is BEFORE considering impacts to individuals' lives, their health and well-being.

I don't think this should be too much to ask of one's elected officials.
Quoting drs2008:
dig a trench.put in old school bus. Shelter!!


But then how would they get the kids to school? ;)
Quoting NasBahMan:


Last night Camperdown Drive just off of Culbert's Hill had 4 1/2' of water, down to about 2' now. I didn't have time to get everywhere, understand couple of places in San Souci between hills had 10' of water.
YIKES!!! If it's the valley I'm thinking about just behind the big hill, that must have been a sight to see.

Sure hope the rest of the rainy season is not this... torrential...
Quoting SLU:
Just got in after a busy day. Is my PC malfunctioning or has the GEOS satellite imagery been down since last night?


Nope, It has a problem.
as easy as that Taz.
Quoting SLU:
Just got in after a busy day. Is my PC malfunctioning or has the GEOS satellite imagery been down since last night?

It's been down.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Agreed. I am not interested in the personalities of current politics, so much as I am in the policies [and mindsets that fuel them] that are counterproductive to the welfare and commonwealth of the nation. Things like not funding wx programmes, upgrades and research that can increase public safety are counterproductive; not using the available information to inform policy and make one's discretionary spending more productive is wasteful. And that is BEFORE considering impacts to individuals' lives, their health and well-being.

I don't think this should be too much to ask of one's elected officials.


We got what we voted for - unfortunately, "compromise for the good of the nation" is equivalent to betrayal (on both sides of the spectrum).
Quoting Patrap:
Termites swarming here ...RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN '''


Weird. They were just swarming here too.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
If it had been Fox instead of CNN eveyone would be going Nuts. Sounds like the Pres. always some else to Blame!!!!


CNN accurately reported what the medical examiner inaccurately reported. No excuse for NYT.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
If it had been Fox instead of CNN eveyone would be going Nuts. Sounds like the Pres. always some else to Blame!!!!
Saw another comment elsewhere about CNN actually getting that # from the ME's spokesperson. Only thing I can think is there was some kind of miscommunication between the reporter and the spokesperson. I do know that when the pple at News 9 heard the 91 figure, they kept insisting that the 51 was the accurate figure, with an additional 40 FEARED dead at the primary school.

Frankly, there are often days when I am as underwhelmed by CNN reporting as I am by Fox. However, Fox has made such a practice of misreporting and misrepresenting facts that nobody thinks they made a mistake anymore. Everybody thinks they did it on purpose. Meanwhile, people are more willing to give CNN the benefit of the doubt because they have more of a reputation for objective and accurate reporting.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Were you implying this had something to do with being tropical or...?


Sore subject, Jordan. Lol.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Surprising an EF-4 at 190 mph. There was an disagreement between survey teams over EF-4 or EF-5 damage, though. Some teams found EF-5 damage, but other teams found it as EF-4. Because of no clear agreement, Tuscaloosa stayed at EF-4.

Look at slide 13 of this presentation on discriminating EF4/5 damage:
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww/wp-content/upload s/2012/03/LaDue_NSWW2012.pdf

This presentation might also be helpful:
https://ams.confex.com/ams/26SLS/flvgateway.cgi/i d/22959?recordingid=22959

There is a little elaboration on the different ratings from different teams. Not all tornadoes will get as many independent teams as this, but because they did so for this tornado, they were able to make a "consensus" final answer. Unfortunately, there will always be some subjectivity and some uncertainty.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Saw another comment elsewhere about CNN actually getting that # from the ME's spokesperson. Only thing I can think is there was some kind of miscommunication between the reporter and the spokesperson. I do know that when the pple at News 9 heard the 91 figure, they kept insisting that the 51 was the accurate figure, with an additional 40 FEARED dead at the primary school.

Frankly, there are often days when I am as underwhelmed by CNN reporting as I am by Fox. However, Fox has made such a practice of misreporting and misrepresenting facts that nobody thinks they made a mistake anymore. Everybody thinks they did it on purpose. Meanwhile, people are more willing to give CNN the benefit of the doubt because they have more of a reputation for objective and accurate reporting.
Having people like Piers Morgan on the air will not Help.
667. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



One of the main theories going around, which I agree with, is that everybody was at school or work (the reason we thought the fatality count was going to be high in the first place).

Come to find out, the tornado tracked across a mainly residential area, where nobody was home because of their jobs.



Where are these theories going around at? Just curious.
And yes, "The fact that we were able to watch its whole evolution on air probably helped as well." Which is SOP on severe weather days in central OK.
May 22, 1960

Today, 53 years ago, the world's strongest earthquake ever recorded struck Valdivia, Chile. Major tsunami.

Magnitude: 9.5... strongest ever
2000-6000 deaths



Nice cool fact for ya.. Gnite
Quoting beell:


Where are these theories going around at? Just curious.
And yes, "The fact that we were able to watch its whole evolution on air probably helped as well." Which is SOP in on severe weather days in central OK.

Just seen discussion between other meteorologists on different forums. It's also being discussed a lot on The Weather Channel (between Carl Parker, Chris Warren, and Jim Cantore).

...And I meant the evolution of the actual tornado. From its wall cloud to the rope to the cone to the wedge, back to the cone, back to the rope, and then a wall cloud.
I take what I hear from CNN & Fox and find out the truth is somewhere in between. But I can't take seeing Piers Morgan! I wish they would put his as#@@ back on a boat to England!
671. beell
Thanks, TA. Made a quick check using questionable search terms. Didn't see much.

Don't quite understand your add-on. Though we were talking about the role of TV in the lower than expected fatality count.
Quoting beell:


Where are these theories going around at? Just curious.
And yes, "The fact that we were able to watch its whole evolution on air probably helped as well." Which is SOP on severe weather days in central OK.


The night before forecasters said that storms would be popping up at 2pm.

Tuned into local station a few minutes after two, and they already had the chopper on the storm that produced the tornado. All three stations were up and running on this storm. In many ways, given the availability of mobile tech, if you are not aware of what is happening it is because you choose not to be aware.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Having people like Piers Morgan on the air will not Help.


You are the anti-post. Be sure to bathe with holy water tonight. ;-)
Quoting MississippiWx:


You are the anti-post. Be sure to bathe with holy water tonight. ;-)


LOL!!!..
Now that someone mentions Twc.. I have seen Twc building already 4 times...

Its located in the I-75/The Perimeter. .. you can see it from the east highway ramps.
I was kinda let down, expected more than what I saw, I have to check it out by the inside now.

Gnite
Quoting beell:
Thanks, TA. Made a quick check using questionable search terms. Didn't see much.

Don't quite understand your add-on. Though we were talking about the role of TV in the lower than expected fatality count.

We were. My point was that because people were actually able to see this monster tornado doing damage and headed towards their city (as opposed to visibility problems of the storm because of vegetation or rain) they were more apt to take shelter well ahead of time, leading to a reduced fatality count.
Quoting MississippiWx:


You are the anti-post. Be sure to bathe with holy water tonight. ;-)
I have been called a lot of things but anti-post is a first LOL.
Quoting flsky:
Anyone know of a good astrological site? I'm curious about what I'm seeing around the moon in Central Florida. TIA


Here's some quickie linkage:
Moon Rings, Halos & Coronas

My favorite space weather site:
Solarham


On the Treasure Coast, we're seeing a lunar halo aka moon ring rainbow.
Very Moist Atmosphere Bright moon a few extra solar space wind protons tonight = Pretty Moon :o)

According to Solarham:
WED 5/23 - Radiation Storm: A Moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is now in progress. Protons streaming past Earth following the solar flare is currently on the rise




Quoting gulfbreeze:
I have been called a lot of things but anti-post is a first LOL.


Lol. The comment I quoted was #666.
Quoting drs2008:
dig a trench.put in old school bus. Shelter!!

Allot of old shipping containers are cheap.
I fear the anti-post......
Quoting Patrap:
This Guy gets Dangerously Close to Moore Tornado Until It Tears Into His House




Wow, i think that is the Orr Horse Farm in the background. That guy is extremely dumb/lucky to do something like that. Could have been #25 . . .
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I take what I hear from CNN & Fox and find out the truth is somewhere in between. But I can't take seeing Piers Morgan! I wish they would put his as#@@ back on a boat to England!

The people in England didn't like him so the emigrated him to the USA as punishment. I'm just glad he wasn't a convict or he would of been sent here. LOL
Quoting daddyjames:


Wow, i think that is the Orr Horse Farm in the background. That guy is extremely dumb/lucky to do something like that. Could have been #25 . . .


Yeah, it's definitely a risk. I thought about going out into my garage to capture the Hattiesburg tornado on video, but I don't like taking chances with my life. If I had done it, I would have had some great footage because the tornado was only about 150-200 yards from me.
Quoting IFuSAYso:

Allot of old shipping containers are cheap.


Actually, been looking into this as an option to build a house.

A little elbow grease, and it is actually possible. And relatively inexpensive too (per square foot).

Sometimes difficult to get permits for it though.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. The comment I quoted was #666.
I didn't know my post was 666 now see what you mean. I just am not a fan of Piers Morgan. All of the media is to quick to jump Fox, CNN, ABC et.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The people in England didn't like him so the emigrated him to the USA as punishment. I'm just glad he wasn't a convict or he would of been sent here. LOL


LOL - I have relatives in Perth. We joke that they are "a bunch of crooks". Their reply "better than a bunch of religious nuts."
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, it's definitely a risk. I thought about going out into my garage to capture the Hattiesburg tornado on video, but I don't like taking chances with my life. If I had done it, I would have had some great footage because the tornado was only about 150-200 yards from me.


Heck, we had an EF0-EF1 pass a block away from me. I was huddled in the closet with a mattress over my head with the little one between my legs.

I like to say that it was because I have to set a good example, but . . . ;-)
Quoting AussieStorm:

The people in England didn't like him so the emigrated him to the USA as punishment. I'm just glad he wasn't a convict or he would of been sent here. LOL
Aussie you and the people in the S/US have a lot in common. Oh by the way what is your local Time?
Don't know if anyone has seen this yet, it is pretty cool, every once in a while I go through the archives, today I just clicked on the site for fun and BAM!, got an amazing sprite photo + aurora. The only one known of its kind. That's one lucky photographer.

Astronomy Picture of the Day



Explanation: What's that in the sky? It is a rarely seen form of lightning confirmed only about 25 years ago: a red sprite. Recent research has shown that following a powerful positive cloud-to-ground lightning strike, red sprites may start as 100-meter balls of ionized air that shoot down from about 80-km high at 10 percent the speed of light and are quickly followed by a group of upward streaking ionized balls. The above image, taken a few days ago above central South Dakota, USA, captured a bright red sprite, and is a candidate for the first color image ever recorded of a sprite and aurora together. Distant storm clouds cross the bottom of the image, while streaks of colorful aurora are visible in the background. Red sprites take only a fraction of a second to occur and are best seen when powerful thunderstorms are visible from the side.
Quoting FLCrackerGirl:


Here's some quickie linkage:
Moon Rings, Halos & Coronas

My favorite space weather site:
Solarham


On the Treasure Coast, we're seeing a lunar halo aka moon ring rainbow.
Very Moist Atmosphere Bright moon a few extra solar space wind protons tonight = Pretty Moon :o)

According to Solarham:
WED 5/23 - Radiation Storm: A Moderate S2 Level Radiation Storm is now in progress. Protons streaming past Earth following the solar flare is currently on the rise






Another is spaceweather.com

693. flsky
Quoting daddyjames:


astrological or astronomical? Could it be a Leo?


Ha! Caught me there! One too many glasses of wine tonight, I guess. What I'm REALLY interested in is the star/planet position around the moon tonight. Usually, when the sky is this clear, and the moon is this bright, I don't see any stars this close to the moon. Thinking they're planets, but would like some confirmation.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Aussie you and the people in the S/US have a lot in common. Oh by the way what is your local Time?


Local time here is 1:36pm Thursday
695. flsky
Quoting AussieStorm:


Another is spaceweather.com


Thanks for this link. I'm assuming I'm seeing 2 of the three planets, but don't know which.
Quoting flsky:


Ha! Caught me there! One too many glasses of wine tonight, I guess. What I'm REALLY interested in is the star/planet position around the moon tonight. Usually, when the sky is this clear, and the moon is this bright, I don't see any stars this close to the moon. Thinking they're planets, but would like some confirmation.


Watch them closely. Remember Twinkle Twinkle little star....It actually works in the night sky, planets don't twinkle.

I do know that we have three planets coming into alignment, Jupiter, Venus, and Mercury.


I'll be back in a moment to see what is around the Moon tonight.
Quoting flsky:


Ha! Caught me there! One too many glasses of wine tonight, I guess. What I'm REALLY interested in is the star/planet position around the moon tonight. Usually, when the sky is this clear, and the moon is this bright, I don't see any stars this close to the moon. Thinking they're planets, but would like some confirmation.


This WU blog post explains what is going on in the sky:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Susie77/show.htm l
Quoting flsky:


Thanks for this link. I'm assuming I'm seeing 2 of the three planets, but don't know which.

I posted a link about that earlier. Could it be this? Link
Planets Dancing in the Twilight

Get ready to watch the west at the end of this month for a fantastic celestial show! This month you will see Venus, Jupiter, and Mercury appear above the horizon as a bright trio.

At the beginning of May you will not be able to see Mercury or Venus. Jupiter still reigns fairly high above the horizon after sunset. However, as the end of the month approaches you will see Venus pop up, Jupiter fall down, and Mercury, being true to its namesake, speeding up out of the West and handily bypassing Venus.

This is a wonderful sight to behold, and one in which you won't need anything but your own eyes. Of course, you can use binoculars or a telescope to catch a few details. The moons of Jupiter may look to almost touch Venus as they close in on each other; the disc of Mercury will start to changes its phase from a tiny full disc to a little more than two thirds full. Venus will remain almost fully lit during the trio, but keep your eyes peeled as both it and Mercury rise higher in June; they are the only two planets we see from Earth that have phases that change like our Moon.

The beauty doesn't end after these planets set in the twilight. Saturn is rising up early in the east, and many other gorgeous objects are always up there waiting for your eyes to spy on their secrets. You can find star parties held by astronomy clubs in your area by using the apps below or use the website!

Join our vibrant stargazing community!
Note to self: When offering advice, go and make sure one knows how to operate software without getting disoriented.

lol, I opened up Stellarium for my first time ever (mother uses it frequently) and was like, "Weeee!" Now I can't figure out how to find the moon, lol. I found Uranus, though. Seriously, I did.
00Z GFS is running.
Night guys.
705. flsky
Quoting AussieStorm:

I posted a link about that earlier. Could it be this? Link


Possibly. I noticed it when the moon was about 45 degrees from the eastern horizon.
Quoting flsky:


Possibly. I noticed it when the moon was about 45 degrees from the eastern horizon.


Wait, I got it, The brightest things near the Moon tonight were: Saturn, Spica, and a little farther up was Arcturus.


Titan May Be Headed Toward Wild Weather as its Seasons Begin to Change

Saturn’s moon Titan, long observed by the spacecraft Cassini, might be headed toward some wild weather during its spring and summer based on two new models produced by NASA scientists.
As the seasons change in Titan’s northern hemisphere, a process that takes seven years, waves could start to ripple across the moon’s hydrocarbon seas just as hurricanes begin to swirl over the same region.
The model that attempts to predict the pattern of waves comes as scientists, confused as to why they hadn’t observed any driven by wind on the moon’s sprawling hydrocarbon seas and lakes, improved upon previous models by simultaneously taking into account Titan’s gravity, the viscosity and surface tension of the liquid in the lakes and the air-to-liquid density ratio.

“We now know that the wind speeds predicted during the times Cassini has observed Titan have been below the threshold necessary to generate waves," Alex Hayes, a member of Cassini’s radar team, said in a press release. "What is exciting, however, is that the wind speeds predicted during northern spring and summer approach those necessary to generate wind waves in liquid ethane and/or methane. It may soon be possible to catch a wave in one of the solar system’s most exotic locations.”
The other model, which has to do with hurricanes, predicts that the warming of the northern hemisphere could bring on the storms also known as tropical cyclones, similar to those on Earth that gain their energy from the build-up of heat from seawater evaporation.
However, scientists are wary of promising anything yet.
"For these hurricanes to develop at Titan, there needs to be the right mix of hydrocarbons in these seas, and we still don't know their exact composition," Tetsuya Tokano, who led the creation of the model, said. "If we see hurricanes, that would be one good indicator that there is enough methane in these lakes to support this kind of activity. So far, scientists haven't yet been able to detect methane directly."
As Scott Edington, Cassini's deput proncet scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said, “If you think being a weather forecaster on Earth is difficult, it can be even more challenging at Titan. We know there are weather processes similar to Earth’s at work on this strange world, but differences arise due to the presence of unfamiliar liquids like methane.”
708. flsky
Quoting Astrometeor:


Wait, I got it, The brightest things near the Moon tonight were: Saturn, Spica, and a little farther up was Arcturus.


Thanks! I'll research this further before the moon comes up tomorrow.
Quoting flsky:


Thanks! I'll research this further before the moon comes up tomorrow.


U got mail
Good night blog.

Flsky, I hope all of us helped you out in identifying what you saw. I recommend getting Stellarium, nice program, easy to use, I found where you were looking and it was my first time actually using the program, lol. Other than that, enjoy the night sky, I know I do.

One note before I am off, this year is Year of the Comet. Comet ISON will arrive in the fall, NASA can already see it, hoping to be a stellar performance and the first excellent comet in years for the Northern Hemisphere.

Edit: I saw the your post flsky, you are welcome.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Another is spaceweather.com



... And Spaceweather.com is my Other Favorite site.
Thanks Aussie!

Maybe the Sunset Triangle?
Mercury-Venus-Jupiter less than 3 degrees apart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPthe9e-T18
I'm signing off also. Enjoyed the discussion.

flsky, Astrometeor, and Patrap - thanks for introducing new things to explore.

Baha - dry out soon.

Aussie - a good afternoon to you sir.
FLCrackerGirl

It is so good to see your name. Blessings to you always.

I still have all 4 of my shirts...worn, but loved. Thank you.
Hi WaterDog... Enoying your Florida weather?
Fisky,

U got mail.
I just sent you the body of the Pilot email.
Waves to {{Aqua}}
Peace & Wellness Back at Ya!

Gettin any Good Rain this week for your veggies?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
Quoting Patrap:
Termites swarming here ...RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN '''
yes indeed Pat! I was at work and saw them coming around 8:15. they came all inside the store! it was bad tonight
Invest 91E remains disorganized but still has an opportunity to organize.



91E remains embedded along the monsoon trough as the tropical wave is about to enter into the eastern Pacific. This wave must also be watched for potential development as global models are hinting that. It'll be interesting to see if three tropical storms develop in the eastern Pacific this month, which it never occurs yet.



Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

****Update#12: ****GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode while the
anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or estimated
return to service at this time.

GOES-14: Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
activation is in the process with imaging now estimated to begin at
approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013.

GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. **

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
keeper not again!!!
looks like amarillo
The gulf is coming alive right on time! 80 degrees now

Look at the temps in the carribean
and this shows the gulf is warming up! at one point it was all blue.


--------------040903010804070809000202
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

********Update#13: ********GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode
while the anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or
estimated return to service at this time.
> GOES-14:**Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
> activation is complete and recovery mode imaging commenced at
> approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013. Until recovery mode is
complete,
> the imagery should not be considered within normal tolerance for
> navigation. Transition to the normal routine schedule (or RSO if
> requested) should take place at approximately 1600 UTC on May 23,
> 2013. The ingest and distribution channels of GOES-East data
have not
> been changed, so the satepsdist ADDE servers are automatically
> receiving GOES-14 data. Regarding GOES-East GVAR, users will need to
> repoint their antennas to GOES-14 at 105 degrees West in order to
> receive the GOES-14 GVAR broadcast data stream. GOES-14 GVAR
will not
> be transmitted through GOES-13 channels while GOES-13 recovery
efforts
> continue. Since the recovery schedule is presently unknown, users
> should consider their near-term needs against the efforts required to
> repoint to GOES-14.
GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. ******
**
Quoting bigwes6844:
keeper not again!!!
only a slight risk hail is greatest concearn
compare april22/may22 2013

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only a slight risk hail is greatest concearn
oh okay i was nervous at first!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare april22/may22 2013

can i smell uh oh! its getting warm!
Issue Time: 2013 May 23 0509 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2013
Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0240 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3950 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems Link we have now reached the S3 threshold

Issue Time: 2013 May 23 0348 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0330 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
Good morning all. Fell asleep last night without realizing I wasn't still blogging... lol

Coffee's going on right now... trying a new Madagascar Caramel Vanilla blend this morning along with the standard regular and decaf....

Breakfast is light this morning... wheat toast and old-fashioned Sawyer's guava or pineapple jam.

Still no GOES, so I can't even offer a satellite shot for ur coffee this a.m.... :o(

I gotta make an early departure this morning, so I may not be in until much later. However, a very good morning to all. Enjoy your day!

Quoting bigwes6844:
The gulf is coming alive right on time! 80 degrees now

Look at the temps in the carribean
Morning wes... still pretty cool near us. I hope the warming takes its own sweet slow time in Bahamian waters...
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Rain is the word to use to describe the forecast for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET SPLITS OFF
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS A RIPPLED FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO ON SATURDAY A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND KEEPS FLOW CYCLONIC OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW FORMS EAST OF GEORGIA IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND DEEPENS CAUSING FLOW TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...LIGHT BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRIES AMPLE MOISTURE. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN GAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL WESTERN ATLANTIC
FADES INTO A STRONGER HIGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MAINTAINS A PRESENCE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING GRADIENT MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM
THE EAST. TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...DRIFTS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND PULLS EVEN
MORE MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT MONTH AND CONNECTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN THE MOIST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GRADUALLY FADED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO
THE SOUTH...BUT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
MOISTURE SLIPPING SOUTHWEST AND DRIER AIR COMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAINT CROIX HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND SOUNDERS REVEAL THAT MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER
SAN JUAN WERE ALSO FALLING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS
FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING IS TAKING
PLACE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS DRYING BETWEEN 900 AND 675 MB TILL ABOUT 24/06Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR IMPROVED WEATHER...STRONG HEATING FROM
THE SUN FROM NEARLY PERPENDICULAR NOON TIME SOLAR ANGLES WILL
CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER THE AREA JUST INLAND
FROM THE NORTH COAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE FROM 600-300 MB...LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE
MAY BE LESS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS PROFILE.

MOISTURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS TIME SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT TO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR DO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF GEORGIA AT UPPER LEVELS WEDNESDAY WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT WILL MAKE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN...TAPPING THE BETTER STREAMS OF MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS AND GENERATING CONTINUED SCENARIOS FOR HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE FLYING AREA ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FCST
PERIOD. AFTER 23/17Z MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VCTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TJSJ. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 10-25 KT UP
TO 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS...SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 40 50 60
STT 87 77 86 78 / 20 40 50 50
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare april22/may22 2013


Rainstorm on the morning of 22 May 2013


A trough of low pressure lingering around the coast of Guangdong brought several episodes of heavy rain and thunderstorms to Hong Kong this morning (22 May) which caused landslides and flooding in some places. The Hong Kong Observatory issued the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal at 4:10am, the first time since July 2010.

From midnight till noon, more than 150 millimetres of rain were recorded in many places over the territory. The rainfall recorded in Tseung Kwan O, eastern Kowloon, northern part of Hong Kong Island, Tuen Mun and Tung Chung even exceeded 200 millimetres.



Good morning. This was the end of the 0z GFS run last night:



Here is the latest on what is going on with the sattelites GOES-13 and GOES-14.

********Update#13: ********GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode
while the anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or
estimated return to service at this time.

> GOES-14:**Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
> activation is complete and recovery mode imaging commenced at
> approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013. Until recovery mode is
complete,
> the imagery should not be considered within normal tolerance for
> navigation. Transition to the normal routine schedule (or RSO if
> requested) should take place at approximately 1600 UTC on May 23,
> 2013. The ingest and distribution channels of GOES-East data
have not
> been changed, so the satepsdist ADDE servers are automatically
> receiving GOES-14 data. Regarding GOES-East GVAR, users will need to
> repoint their antennas to GOES-14 at 105 degrees West in order to
> receive the GOES-14 GVAR broadcast data stream. GOES-14 GVAR
will not
> be transmitted through GOES-13 channels while GOES-13 recovery
efforts
> continue. Since the recovery schedule is presently unknown, users
> should consider their near-term needs against the efforts required to
> repoint to GOES-14.

GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. ******

Link
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


But many places have politicians who are anti-government funding. So, they have no backing for gov funds for anything that helps the common folkes. I read some OK politicians vetoed help for Sandy. How can they ask for funding for OK when they didn't want funding for elsewhere hit by natural disaster as well? Irony I suppose for them. But those who oppose government and funding for help...can't go and ask for it when it hits them like only they are worth having it I reckon. there's a reason for government help and taxes, and those who rally against it, need to open their eyes...but sadly only do when it affects them or their city/state.
Senator Coburn was not opposed to Sandy disaster relief per se. He was opposed to all the additional pork stuck into that disaster relief bill. And that happens every time. It's shameful. But indicative of our political process that the guy who tries to stand up to such nonsense gets mischaracterized by those who live for porking up such legislation.
the city of moore now has a stigma associated with it. could miami be next? what will rubio say after his town is run over by back to back major hurricanes. he wont care about the pork then
745. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!

I hate this ... look at the far extreme of the Image .. you would swear something is cooking up but instead its a flaw ..

Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning wes... still pretty cool near us. I hope the warming takes its own sweet slow time in Bahamian waters...
morning baha! i see 0z tryna start early and give us a direct hit
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. This was the end of the 0z GFS run last night:



tell 0z keep dreaming!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

****Update#12: ****GOES-13 has been placed into storage mode while the
anomaly is investigated. There is no new information or estimated
return to service at this time.

GOES-14: Comm services (SAR, DCS, etc) are operational; payload
activation is in the process with imaging now estimated to begin at
approximately 0800 UTC May 23, 2013.

GOES-15 (West) remains in full disk mode and will continue in that
schedule until further notice. **




NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO :'(
meh.... i can live without it xD


Yesterday with the suns incredible solar flares.

There were actually 2 flares within 50 minutes of each other, as shown in this GIF.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Senator Coburn was not opposed to Sandy disaster relief per se. He was opposed to all the additional pork stuck into that disaster relief bill. And that happens every time. It's shameful. But indicative of our political process that the guy who tries to stand up to such nonsense gets mischaracterized by those who live for porking up such legislation.
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...
JeffMasters, do you think you can make a blog on solar weather sometime soon? :P
may 22

may 28
Quoting bigwes6844:
may 22

may 28


What am i looking at? sst looks about the same. xD
We may be talking about a significant severe weather outbreak come next Tuesday and Wednesday.


Quoting Neapolitan:
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...



Do you have a link to what was trimmed?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

LOL the geographical tropical weather outlook satellite is glitched!

Quoting bigwes6844:
may 22

may 28


Looks like the GOM has cooled, also the east coast has cooled a bit too.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
760. beell
One of these pieces could certainly provide potential over at least a limited area. If you buy into recent research that favors less progressive kinks in the jet stream due to loss of Arctic sea ice and warming at the poles-one would have to favor the ECMWF.
:-)

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT EVEN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY WITH HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS PIECES
OF THE WRN TROUGH EJECT EWD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.

THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE DAYS 4-5
/SUN. AND MON./ THAN THE ECMWF...THUS SHIFTING THE SURFACE TROUGH
EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

LATER...BOTH MODELS REDEVELOP THE WRN RIDGE...BUT AGAIN -- THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...SHIFTING IT
INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY 7 WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER-MOVING WRN TROUGH
-- AND THUS RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
UNTIL DAY 8.

IN WHAT MANNER THESE EJECTIONS OF WRN U.S. ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS
OCCUR WILL LARGELY MODULATE DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ATTM -- IT
APPEARS THAT EVEN WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS...DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6.
WHILE THREAT COULD INCREASE SOMETIME IN THE DAY 7-8 TIME
FRAME...DEGREE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF A
THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 05/23/2013
"We may be talking about a significant severe weather outbreak come next Tuesday and Wednesday." (TA)
Good Heavens. These folks need a breather.




Good morning over there from a cold and wet Germany with even some freezing temps and maybe snow in mountainious regions, brrr. The "ice saints" (in the version of the Gregorian Calendar, see below) are very reliable this year. Trough from the north is digging very deep into Central Europe, sigh!



From Wikipedia: The Ice Saints is a name given to St. Mamertus, St. Pancras, and St. Servatius in Flemish, French, Dutch, Hungarian, German, Austrian, Polish, Swiss and Croatian folklore. They are so named because their feast days fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively. In Flanders St. Boniface of Tarsus is counted amongst the Ice Saints as well; St. Boniface's feast day falling on May 14. The period from May 12 to May 15 was noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in many years, including the last nightly frosts of the spring, in the Northern Hemisphere under the Julian Calendar. The introduction of the Gregorian Calendar in 1582 involved skipping 10 days in the calendar, so that the equivalent days from the climatic point of view became May 22–25.

In Poland and the Czech Republic, the Ice Saints are St. Pancras, Saint Servatus and St. Boniface of Tarsus (i.e., May 12 to May 14). To the Poles, the trio are known collectively as zimni ogrodnicy (cold gardeners), and are followed by zimna Zośka (cold Sophias) on the feast day of St. Sophia which falls on May 15. In Czech, the three saints are collectively referred to as "ledoví muži" (ice-men or icy men), and Sophia is known as "Žofie, ledová žena" (Sophia, the ice-woman).

In Sweden, the German legend of the ice saints has resulted in the belief that there are special "iron nights," especially in the middle of June, which are susceptible to frost. The term "iron nights" (järnnätter) has probably arisen through a mistranslation of German sources, where the term "Eismänner" (ice men) was read as "Eisenmänner" (iron men) and their nights then termed "iron nights," which then became shifted from May to June.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Senator Coburn was not opposed to Sandy disaster relief per se. He was opposed to all the additional pork stuck into that disaster relief bill. And that happens every time. It's shameful. But indicative of our political process that the guy who tries to stand up to such nonsense gets mischaracterized by those who live for porking up such legislation.


Tell that to (R)Peter King, who has told any fellow republicans who didn't vote for Sandy relief to not expect to raise any money for their reelection in the state of New York.
What is going on in OKC
Quoting Grothar:


More weather action for our Levi in Norman, maybe now enjoying his first lightnings. But much less joy for the poor people in the tornado stricken regions unfortunately.

Quoting Grothar:


Any blob updates..anywhere?
Quoting barbamz:


More weather action for our Levi in Norman, maybe now enjoying his first lightnings. But much less joy for the poor people in the tornado stricken regions unfortunately.


Levi
Holy cow! Lightning just took out a light-bulb less than a quarter mile from my window!

It is an experience for him. :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. This was the end of the 0z GFS run last night:





Exactly what "Z" is most trustworthy?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Levi
Holy cow! Lightning just took out a light-bulb less than a quarter mile from my window!

It is an experience for him. :)


The constant lightning, wind, and rain-producing supercells is a big step from the low-topped storms that only produce a few rumbles that he is used to.
Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone

Tropics: So here's the thing. Finally got a weekend off. No fishing, no painting, no cleaning. Leaving tomorrow for four days of camping on Water Island. I'm looking at the pile of tools on top of the cistern cover (no, I STILL haven't moved them), knowing that the water is getting low, and the rain that's coming is a good thing; right? Right?

I'm still trying to convince myself, as you can see....

So I'm packing books, mosquito spray (four cans in various forms), more books and sufficient island beverages to get us through what could be a miserable weekend!

Lindy



Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Any blob updates..anywhere?


No significant blobs.




Well, I wrote to the Doc yesterday to let him know of my hurricane guide. He wrote back (how does he have the time?) to tell me he enjoyed looking through it, but that he wouldn't be needing it.

Very funny. Everybody's a comedian.
Truthfully, I didn't expect him to even look at, let alone offer up any suggestions, as busy as he is.
But you guys aren't busy. If you were you wouldn't be sittin' on your fanny reading this post!

So help me out, and tell me of some links, pics, videos, whatever, that I should have but don't.

Off to work for me, I get to crawl under a house and play with wires!
Have a great day everyone!
GFS still showing an EPAC landfall.

Snow for NE over Memorial Da Weekend !?!
Say whaaaaat !!

Link
Quoting Chucktown:
Snow for NE over Memorial Da Weekend !?!
Say whaaaaat !!

Link


There is NO way that is a reliable model.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...
Here's a summary (written by the GOP House caucus) of the Sandy relief bill. Link. The amendment which tripled the size of the expenditures was presented by a Republican rep from New Jersey. I think the perception of "pork" has a lot to do with whose ox is being gored (to thoroughly mix metaphors - sorry). We'll see what happens this time. My objection to offsetting relief funds with budget cuts is that the cuts disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in society (effects of the sequestration being a prime example).
/politics off
Quoting FtMyersgal:


It looks like the wavetrain has begun in a slow way. IMO,the North Atlantic season looks like it will have a slow start with the first storm forming around mid to late June.
Quoting barbamz:
Good morning over there from a cold and wet Germany with even some freezing temps and maybe snow in mountainious regions, brrr. The "ice saints" (in the version of the Gregorian Calendar, see below) are very reliable this year. Trough from the north is digging very deep into Central Europe, sigh!



From Wikipedia: The Ice Saints is a name given to St. Mamertus, St. Pancras, and St. Servatius in Flemish, French, Dutch, Hungarian, German, Austrian, Polish, Swiss and Croatian folklore. They are so named because their feast days fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively. In Flanders St. Boniface of Tarsus is counted amongst the Ice Saints as well; St. Boniface's feast day falling on May 14. The period from May 12 to May 15 was noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in many years, including the last nightly frosts of the spring, in the Northern Hemisphere under the Julian Calendar. The introduction of the Gregorian Calendar in 1582 involved skipping 10 days in the calendar, so that the equivalent days from the climatic point of view became May 22–25.

In Poland and the Czech Republic, the Ice Saints are St. Pancras, Saint Servatus and St. Boniface of Tarsus (i.e., May 12 to May 14). To the Poles, the trio are known collectively as zimni ogrodnicy (cold gardeners), and are followed by zimna Zośka (cold Sophias) on the feast day of St. Sophia which falls on May 15. In Czech, the three saints are collectively referred to as "ledoví muži" (ice-men or icy men), and Sophia is known as "Žofie, ledová žena" (Sophia, the ice-woman).

In Sweden, the German legend of the ice saints has resulted in the belief that there are special "iron nights," especially in the middle of June, which are susceptible to frost. The term "iron nights" (järnnätter) has probably arisen through a mistranslation of German sources, where the term "Eismänner" (ice men) was read as "Eisenmänner" (iron men) and their nights then termed "iron nights," which then became shifted from May to June.


Heya Barb. Much colder here in N Wales today too. Wind chill 37' in the brisk winds. Not as wet here though. Lumps of rain quite random and blowing through quickly. Pretty typical blustery, patchy rain spring. Everything now finally looking green and like spring at least here!
Good Morning, Afternoon or whatever,
Sunrise on the West Coast, 62.8F
Forecast 74 (WU) normal is 81/57
Quoting Chucktown:
Snow for NE over Memorial Da Weekend !?!
Say whaaaaat !!

Link
At least one of these two forecasts is wrong:

cpc
Quoting Neapolitan:
It wasn't "pork"; the Sandy relief bill included long-term infrastructure spending and funding for projects aimed at disasters other than Sandy. Much of that "extra" stuff was trimmed, and trimmed again--and Coburn and Inhofe still voted against it in an obvious effort to score Brownie points among their home crowds by stiffing them thar high-falutin' East Coast elites what ain't Okies. When people are hurting--I mean, truly suffering--it's not the time to treat immediate relief packages as a political football. When you call in the cavalry, you don't complain about the color of their horses. But I suppose when one's entire political career is built upon opposition to FEMA, and the federal government in general, neither man really had much choice at all.

Anyway, I find it funny/sad what passes for statesmanship these days. In response to a reporter who asked him about the apparent dichotomy, Inhofe whined, "But it's totally different!" In 300 years, we've gone from "Give me liberty, or give me death!" to that...
Puh-leeze. It was pork. A disaster relief bill should stick to the disaster in question, instead of getting loaded up with this kind of pork:

One of the most stunning elements in the amendment is $16 billion for the Community Development Block Grant, a slush fund that states and localities can hand out pretty much anywhere they choose. The amendment contains several pages of language ostensibly aimed at restricting use of the funds, but also says they can be applied to “other eligible events in calendar years 2011, 2012, and 2013.” It’s just a guess, but events in 2011 and 2013 are not likely the result of Hurricane Sandy.

http://blog.heritage.org/2013/01/14/hurricane-san dy-relief-an-early-opportunity-for-budgeting/

It wasn't about making a statement back home (and nice job disparaging those in flyover country). Political leadership should not be about exploiting the good nature of the American people to pork up a disaster bill.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like the wavetrain has begun in a slow way.


It's a bit early to look toward the CV islands for a good wave to develop. But I just love that sat pic
Quoting Torito:
JeffMasters, do you think you can make a blog on solar weather sometime soon? :P


With hurricane season around the corner, I doubt I'll have have a chance to talk about space weather.

A new report released today from AER and Lloyd's had this to say:


The total US population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD.

Jeff Masters
School got cancelled for me today due to a power outage, thank goodness.

Icky weather in my area today, warm, wet, and humid right now but temps are expected to fall near 50F later today and get pretty windy.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Exactly what "Z" is most trustworthy?


Ok, it won't let me link this for some reason. 39 page study from NOAA

A Comparison of Forecast Skills among GFS Four Cycles in the Past Ten Years -- Justification for the 06Z and 18Z Runs
Fanglin Yang
NCEP EMC Global Modeling Branch Biweekly Briefing
December 13, 2012

SUMMARY

1.The GFS 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as the 00Z and 12Z cycles.

2.The 06Z cycle is the least skillful.

3. Conventional data count of the 06Z is consistently less (~10%) than that of the other cycles. No large difference in satellite data count is found among the four cycles.

4.For short-range forecast ( ~ 3 days), the later 06Z (18Z) cycle does show better forecast skills than the earlier 00Z (12Z) cycle when both are validated at the same verification time.

5.For medium and longer range forecast, the later 06Z (18Z) cycle is not significantly different from the earlier 00Z (12Z) cycle. --- only run the 06Z and 18Z cycles for short-range forecast?

6.In general, both the GFS and ECMWF have the best (better) forecast skills for the 00Z cycle. However, both model showed worse tropical 850-hPa winds for the 00Z cycle than that of the other cycles.
Quoting FLwolverine:
I think the perception of "pork" has a lot to do with whose ox is being gored


If it doesn't have anything to do with relief from the disaster in question, it's pork and should be handled in a separate bill. And pork is not a Democrat versus Republican issue, too many in both parties load up all kinds of bills with extra spending to benefit their own pet special interests. It's wrong across the board. But it's especially egregious in disaster bills that need to be passed in a timely manner to benefit those affected.

Regarding offsets, one of the cardinal rules of politics is when confronted with a budget cut, slice off muscle instead of fat to present the illusion that any cuts will have a dire impact. There is always plenty of fat to be cut. But the fat represents those in top positions in government with the most perks, and therefore the most desirable of government jobs, such as commissions and multiple layers of administrators. The people in government that actually perform vital services are therefore the first to go.

Basically, our political leadership is nothing of the sort.
Quoting Neapolitan:
At least one of these two forecasts is wrong:

cpc


That's for the end of next week (8-14 day) Yes, it will warm up after the nor'easter this weekend. C'mon Nea, your better than that !!
Quoting JeffMasters:


With hurricane season around the corner, I doubt I'll have have a chance to talk about space weather.

A new report released today from AER and Lloyd's had this to say:


The total US population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD.

Jeff Masters



Holy cow 1-2 years?!

Geez, thats crazy, and that cost to fix it is beyond comprehension!

Thanks for replying, and i understand what you are saying, with an active hurricane season drawing near.

-Torito

Edit: Nice link, by the way.
Hi nrt. Will NOAA have a stream to see the conference where they will release their outlook at 1 PM EDT?
This is some new unbelievable stuff from Google - Moore, OK

Link
Halloween solar storm of 2013
October 2003 – Halloween Storms
In late October 2003, three large active regions were present on the solar surface. One of these was responsible for the majority of the flaring and eruptive activity during the 2003 storm events. Not only was the geomagnetic storm noteworthy, the solar proton event was the fourth largest in 25 years of records. The largest solar active region was responsible for the ~2000 km/s CMEs that triggered the geomagnetic storms of 29-31 October.
Minor power grid disturbances were experienced in North America, including a capacitor trip in the Northwest, and transformer heating in the Northeast. Ground magnetic field fluctuations were stronger over Northern Europe, and Sweden experienced a blackout of less than an hour in length affecting around 50,000 customers. The blackout was attributed to the combination of harmonic distortions caused by geomagnetically induced currents and incorrectly set protective relay thresholds.
Perhaps the most surprising impact from this event was the twelve transformers in South Africa that suffered damage necessitating their removal from service. The low latitude of South Africa (~40 corrected geomagnetic latitude - roughly the same as the state of Florida) is usually assumed to be immune from surface electric fields strong enough to cause transformer internal heating.

Credit from here.
Statement as of 9:12 AM CDT on May 23, 2013
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 930 am CDT
for southern McClain... central Garvin... east central Grady and
northwestern Pontotoc counties...


At 914 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
detect severe thunderstorms located 5 miles west of Maysville and
near Pauls Valley... moving south at 25 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
half dollar size hail...
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Pauls Valley... Lindsay... Wynnewood... Stratford... Maysville... Wayne...
Paoli... Washington... Byars... Rosedale... Criner... Antioch... Whitebead
and Payne.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move inside a sturdy building until the storm has passed.

Good Morning All..
76 degrees with 85%rh and dew at 71..
Mostly cloudy with winds from NNW at 6mph..
Feels very humid and almost summer like now..

Bright and inviting at the beach..
Surf is almost flat..

Quoting Neapolitan:
At least one of these two forecasts is wrong:

cpc

CPC suggests probabilities, not the actual departure from average.
Dense Fog AdvisoryStatement as of 8:06 AM CDT on May 23, 2013


... Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect until 9 am CDT this morning.

* Timing... through 9am this morning then improving.

* Visibilities... around one third of a mile at times.

* Impacts... low visibilities will result in hazardous driving conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be
reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving... slow down... use
your low beam headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.



Dense Fog Warning as of 5:56 AM MDT on May 23, 2013
... Dense fog Warning in effect until 8 am MDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a dense fog
Warning... which is in effect until 8 am MDT this morning.

* Visibility... one tenth mile or less.

* Impacts... significantly reduced visibilities will make travel
hazardous along area roadways. This includes Interstate 80
between mile markers 318 and 355.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog warning means visibilities will be
reduced to less than one fifth mile. If driving... slow down...
use your headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.





The long range GFS has been very consistent. I'll give it that much.

Morning/Evening

Is the severity of a weather event determined by who built the structures it impacts? If it hits a mall instead of a hospital and does the same types of damage, is the tornado weaker because the mall it hit isn't a government building?
Wind speed I get, it is the same if it blows past a tree or a truck. Is the Fujita scale for human damage assessment or a way to gage the strength of the storm? Something seems off when the ratings jump only when passing structures, is there a better way to judge wind speed when passing a field or farm fences, instead of just buildings?
Statement as of 2:41 AM MDT on May 23, 2013
... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 am this morning to
8 PM MST this evening...

* winds... southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60
mph will develop by mid to late morning and continue through mid
evening.

* Impacts... blowing dust will reduce visibility from the Little
Colorado River valley into northeast Arizona. Cross winds may
hamper travel on area roadways.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 30 to 39 mph... or
gusts from 40 to 57 mph... are expected. Winds this strong can
make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles.
Consider securing loose belongings on your property. Additional
weather information is on the web at www.Weather.Gov/Flagstaff.

Quoting Chucktown:


That's for the end of next week (8-14 day) Yes, it will warm up after the nor'easter this weekend. C'mon Nea, your better than that !!
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Morning/Evening

Is the severity of a weather event determined by who built the structures it impacts? If it hits a mall instead of a hospital and does the same types of damage, is the tornado weaker because the mall it hit isn't a government building?
Wind speed I get, it is the same if it blows past a tree or a truck. Is the Fujita scale for human damage assessment or a way to gage the strength of the storm? Something seems off when the ratings jump only when passing structures, is there a better way to judge wind speed when passing a field or farm fences, instead of just buildings?


Both wind and damage is measured to determine strength of a tornado.
Statement as of 3:53 AM CDT on May 23, 2013
... Frost advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am CDT
Friday...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 7 am CDT
Friday.

* Low temperatures from 25 to 35 degrees are expected across the
area tonight.

* The cold temperatures will likely result in the formation of
frost by morning. Frost can damage cold-sensitive plants.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost poses a risk to cold-sensitive
plants. Sensitive vegetation that is left unprotected could be
damaged or killed. If possible... shelter any such plants in a
garage or shed overnight. If that is not possible... cover the
plants with a tarp or cloth.

Beautiful morning sun coming up over the wooded rolling hills of Southern Illinois.

Statement as of 5:02 am CDT on May 23, 2013
... Record low temperatures possible Friday morning (may 24th)...

Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected Friday morning with
low temperatures in the 20s north and lower to middle 30s over
the remainder of the area.

Here is a list of record lows for Friday (may 24th).

Record
location low year(s)
------------------------------------------------- --------------
Antigo 29 1917
Appleton 33 1925
Green Bay 33 1992
Manitowoc 34 1925

Marshfield 27 1917
Merrill 30 1956
Oshkosh 33 1935
Rhinelander 28 1925

Stevens Point 32 1924
Sturgeon Bay 31 1934
Wausau 32 1948... 1992
Wisconsin Rapids 29 1930

Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)

Certainly a time to honor our heroes and those of whom served and fought for our freedom.
GFS still has the gulf system, but keeps pushing it back towards the end of the run.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Beautiful morning sun coming up over the wooded rolling hills of Southern Illinois.



How much rain did you get yesterday? we got .3 inches due to a thunderstorm last night.
The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau.
* Until Monday morning
* at 10:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 32.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 32.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 33.5 feet by
Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday
morning.
* Impact... at 32.0 feet... minor flooding occurs. The Mississippi
River backs into several creeks producing flooding.






943 PM CDT Wed may 22 2013

The Flood Warning continues for
the Mississippi River at Chester.
* At 9 PM Wednesday the stage was 28.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast... the river will fall below flood stage Sunday afternoon.


Lat... Lon 3826 9043 3826 9030 3769 8935 3769 8959 3787 9003



fld latest 7am forecast
location stg obs stg 05/23 05/24 05/25 05/26 05/27

Mississippi River
Canton ld20 14.0 14.22 14.0 13.5 13.1 13.0 13.0
Quincy 17.0 17.15 16.9 16.3 15.8 15.5 15.6
Hannibal 16.0 17.80 17.5 16.9 16.5 16.3 16.2
Saverton ld22 16.0 16.90 16.7 15.9 15.3 15.0 14.9
Louisiana 15.0 17.40 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.5 15.3
Clarksville ld 25.0 28.09 27.8 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.9
Winfield ld25 26.0 29.05 28.9 28.0 27.2 26.6 26.2



More rain up there? this is like the 4th day in a row that they got flash flood statements...

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from noon EDT today through Friday
morning...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for the northern Adirondacks of New York... the
Champlain Valley... and the remainder of Vermont.

* From noon EDT today through Friday morning

* thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight will have the potential
to produce rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour. These storms
will be training... or moving over the same area... and this will
increase the threat for flash flooding.

* Flash flooding will occur quickly... thus roads can flood in a
very short period of time... small rivers can rise rapidly... and
culverts can fill up quickly. All of these situations can lead
to flooding in a short period of time.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



Evenson


Just got a moderate risk for parts of NW Texas and far SE Oklahoma.
Quoting Chucktown:
This is some new unbelievable stuff from Google - Moore, OK

Link


WOW see the scrapes on the ground just before Briarwood Elementary School

Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)


Forecast for Bar Harbor is rain only, not nearly cold enough to snow: Link

It won't be cold enough to snow in Caribou either :)

I'm not trying to be contrary, but I was surprised to see that forecast for the north east. The mid-atlantic sweated right through yesterday at 90 degrees and humid with severe storms, so if it snowed this weekend- that would define whiplash weather!
Quoting Torito:


How much rain did you get yesterday? we got .3 inches due to a thunderstorm last night.

Nothing yesterday, but the day before I did pretty good. Picked up nearly an inch of rain. And it was the steady kind that soaked into the ground as opposed to flash flooding where everything ran off.

Not too shabby. Especially because we're expected to head into a drier pattern for the next two or three weeks. I'm not too thrilled about that! :-(
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)
It is my harmless opine that this will be winters last whine...Zonal flow should prevail after the forecast omega block breaks down.Ye old Bermudi High will flex its muscle soon, and a summery pattern takes hold on the eastern half of our Great Nation. God bless to your relatives that fought and gave all during the wars.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Forecast for Bar Harbor is rain only, not nearly cold enough to snow: Link

It won't be cold enough to snow in Caribou either :)

I'm not trying to be contrary, but I was surprised to see that forecast for the north east. The mid-atlantic sweated right through yesterday at 90 degrees and humid with severe storms, so if it snowed this weekend- that would define whiplash weather!

It is a model run, not an official forecast. Yeah I doubt there would be a good snow system in the NE. It would be crazy if it somehow materialized though.
Look at how fast the anomalies have changed since April

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/an oma.5.2.2013.gif
They also note damage to trees -branches or trunks twisted and  broken, bark striped off or just gone. How the ground has been affected- grass remaining or stripped off, ground dug down into by the tornadic winds.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Morning/Evening

Is the severity of a weather event determined by who built the structures it impacts? If it hits a mall instead of a hospital and does the same types of damage, is the tornado weaker because the mall it hit isn't a government building?
Wind speed I get, it is the same if it blows past a tree or a truck. Is the Fujita scale for human damage assessment or a way to gage the strength of the storm? Something seems off when the ratings jump only when passing structures, is there a better way to judge wind speed when passing a field or farm fences, instead of just buildings?

821. JRRP
Blue Tarps on the roofs also help judge damage in photo assessments.

Is that another big storm cell over OK already today?

Thanks Dr. M for the Solar Storm assessment link.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Blue Tarps on the roofs also help judge damage in photo assessments.

Is that another big storm cell over OK already today?

Thanks Dr. M for the Solar Storm assessment link.


Yepo mate!

Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)


Morning Nea..
Thanks for sharing that family legacy..
We all should take time to honor our hero's, personal or otherwise, in our own way and on whatever day seems personally appropriate..
Todays Updated Drought Monitor..



12 Week animation for comparison..

Thanks Fire,

(I am trying to understand how the assessment works so the best possible tools can be developed for damage prevention and recovery for this and other events.

Those ground scrapes and grass-less strips indicate to me that the storm was at similar wind speeds on the ground, before it reached the School, not a sudden bump or teardrop that the assessment contours seem to be showing. Wouldn't you expect more of a lens shape changes in wind speed?
On the other hand, I realize open fetch can let wind build as it crosses open areas and buildings do reach up into the wind field where there is less ground friction/drag.
Getting on a plane in a few minutes. Everyone stay safe today and don't over eat. Sorry I didn't have breakfast for you, but I've been too busy. I'll just leave you a little snack.



Quoting Grothar:
Getting on a plane in a few minutes. Everyone stay safe today and don't over eat. Sorry I didn't have breakfast for you, but I've been too busy. I'll just leave you a little snack.





Safe journey Gro..
Thanks for the treat.. :)
Convection blowing up big time for the tropical wave skirting the South American Coastline
Quoting fireflymom:
They also note damage to trees -branches or trunks twisted and  broken, bark striped off or just gone. How the ground has been affected- grass remaining or stripped off, ground dug down into by the tornadic winds.



Good morning all, evening Aussie. Safe trip Grothar.

I wonder do they take into account the type of tree it is? The different strengths inherent in the wood would produce different results.
Quoting Grothar:
Getting on a plane in a few minutes. Everyone stay safe today and don't over eat. Sorry I didn't have breakfast for you, but I've been too busy. I'll just leave you a little snack.



This is the eatenest weather blog on the planet..:)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Convection blowing up big time for the tropical wave skirting the South American Coastline


Is it an official 'blob'?
Models beginning to show development in the Western Caribbean next week.

Quoting AGWcreationists:
Puh-leeze. It was pork. A disaster relief bill should stick to the disaster in question, instead of getting loaded up with this kind of pork:

One of the most stunning elements in the amendment is $16 billion for the Community Development Block Grant, a slush fund that states and localities can hand out pretty much anywhere they choose. The amendment contains several pages of language ostensibly aimed at restricting use of the funds, but also says they can be applied to %u201Cother eligible events in calendar years 2011, 2012, and 2013.%u201D It%u2019s just a guess, but events in 2011 and 2013 are not likely the result of Hurricane Sandy.

http://blog.heritage.org/2013/01/14/hurricane-san dy-relief-an-early-opportunity-for-budgeting/

It wasn't about making a statement back home (and nice job disparaging those in flyover country). Political leadership should not be about exploiting the good nature of the American people to pork up a disaster bill.
A bunch of amendments were proposed in addition to the one that was eventually approved. According to the GOP write up linked earlier:


Transportation, Housing and Urban Development %u2014 $19.773 billion

The amendment provides funding for repairs to Sandy-related damage to roads, bridges and tunnels through the Federal Highway Administration%u2019s Emergency Relief Program as well as the repair backlog for previous disasters. It also provides supplementary funding for repairs, replacement, and reconstruction for various transportation infrastructure: Federal Aviation Administration facilities and equipment; Amtrak rails and equipment; and affected public transportation infrastructure in the New York City metropolitan area (including the MetropolMetropolitan Transit Authority, the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey, New Jersey Transit, and ferries operated by the New York City Department of Transportation). To support community and housing needs for Sandy and other 2011-2013 eligible disasters, the amendment also provides added funding for the Community Development Block Grant program to assist state and local governments meet needs for public infrastructure like hospitals, utilities and roads, repairs for small businesses, rental assistance, and other community development projects.

I'm not saying there was no pork in this bill, but it may have been leaner than a lot of people assume. The Club for Growth and other conservative groups were vehemently opposed to this bill, and I'm sure they got their publicity out.. I'm not a fan of most of the people currently holding office in Washington (or Lansing or Tallahassee) but facts matter. Facts matter. I'm willing to listen to facts.

Edited to add: but I would rather listen to you all talk about weather.
Quoting JRRP:


Windshear?
Look at WV loops look like that upper ridge in the E Eastern Pac is now push a little E so now Eastern Half of upper ridge is in the Western Caribbean
Quoting pcola57:
Todays Updated Drought Monitor..



12 Week animation for comparison..



its funny that NC never changes but we have been getting nothing but rain almost every other day, why is that?
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Is it an official 'blob'?


How about this its an offical tropical wave

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models beginning to show development in the Western Caribbean next week.



It always have been NAVGEM
Yes GFS CMC/GGEM NOGAPS/NAVGEM and EURO all show it
Quoting ncstorm:


its funny that NC never changes but we have been getting nothing but rain almost every other day, why is that?


Depends, the drought monitor is based upon soil moisture - so, if you have been experiencing downpours, that rapidly run off the surface with little time to absorb into the ground, that may explain it.

Bad weather news from Norway:

Hundreds evacuated and damage spreads as flood waters rise
May 23, 2013

Neighbours were crying and hugging one another Thursday morning as they watched raging flood waters slam into their homes in Kvam, in the valley of Gudbrandsdalen. Nearly 300 homeowners were evacuated during the night, as were others farther south in Eidsvoll and in several other communities around southern Norway as rain and snowmelt turned rivers and creeks into uncontrollable torrents.

Photos and video from a chopper are here.
Quoting ncstorm:


its funny that NC never changes but we have been getting nothing but rain almost every other day, why is that?


It's because it was abnormally dry dating back to the end of last year. Florida to North Carolina finally started getting some much needed rains once April hit and it will take much more to get us out of the drought officially although you wouldn't know it here in Orlando as the water tables are actually pretty high now.

Downtown Orlando has received 5.26" of rain just this week with many areas receiving 6" to 9" so far for the month of May and that is on top of 4" to 9" that fell in April.
Have you noticed that when aislinn posts her morning breakfasts to the blog, your imagination goes wild with these incredible visions of food....but when Grothar posts his they just kind of slap you in the face, your mouth starts watering...

lol

Lindy
The Euro has a low in the northwest Caribbean 10 days. This means the Canadian, GFS and euro all agree on a low developing the northwest Caribbean 10 days from now.
Is there first return LiDAR of the Track area pre-storm, that could be compared post storm? That might be a great way to indicate damage locations too.

Also, was that brief F2 marker on the Radar Animation #823 at 9:11 frame, an indicator of more than just a storm center?
I'm sure Levi is enjoying his 2nd severe thunderstorm today in Norman. Also, today is my last regular day in high school. Only got to come back 4 more times for exams. Bittersweet, but I'm excited to start a new chapter in my life and to start learning about meteorology.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm sure Levi is enjoying his 2nd severe thunderstorm today in Norman. Also, today is my last regular day in high school. Only got to come back 4 more times for exams. Bittersweet, but I'm excited to start a new chapter in my life and to start learning about meteorology.


Good luck on those exams, and wish you continued success as you venture forth into the new chapter.
Quoting daddyjames:


Good luck on those exams, and wish you continued success as you venture forth into the new chapter.
Thanks! These exams shouldn't be difficult. Just have to do them and I'm ready for graduation on weekend of June 7th.
Quoting barbamz:
Bad weather news from Norway:

Hundreds evacuated and damage spreads as flood waters rise
May 23, 2013

Neighbours were crying and hugging one another Thursday morning as they watched raging flood waters slam into their homes in Kvam, in the valley of Gudbrandsdalen. Nearly 300 homeowners were evacuated during the night, as were others farther south in Eidsvoll and in several other communities around southern Norway as rain and snowmelt turned rivers and creeks into uncontrollable torrents.

Photos and video from a chopper are here.
All this bad weather...I think Mother Nature is aggravated...I hope she will not be aggravated during the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks! These exams shouldn't be difficult. Just have to do them and I'm ready for graduation on weekend of June 7th.


Good Luck!! the world awaits..
So I'm sitting and tinkering around at a workstation in the middle of NWS Norman. Everyone here is super busy with the weather going on in Oklahoma. I woke up to lightning/thunder this morning. What a start to the day.
Absorb all you can while your there Levi.

We proud of ya Man.
Quoting Levi32:
So I'm sitting and tinkering around at a workstation in the middle of NWS Norman. Everyone here is super busy with the weather going on in Oklahoma. I woke up to lightning/thunder this morning. What a start to the day.


Levi,

You may nave already posted this . . . but are you here only for the summer, or are you here long-term? Know that you have been looking at schools, and was wondering if you had made a final decision.

Quoting Levi32:
So I'm sitting and tinkering around at a workstation in the middle of NWS Norman. Everyone here is super busy with the weather going on in Oklahoma. I woke up to lightning/thunder this morning. What a start to the day.


What do they have you doing there Levi? How long is your internship?
After looking at aerials on Google map of the damage, one thing stood out the most. The tornado was moving on a NE direction and where there is the Central church of Christ along I-35 the tornado literally changed to an ESE direction going opposite of the church. There is no way the tornado should of turned like that. That is by far the most stunning event I've ever seen, and the evidence of the track change is evident.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


What do they have you doing there Levi? How long is your internship?


Well, that answers my question!
Quoting daddyjames:


Levi,

You may nave already posted this . . . but are you here only for the summer, or are you here long-term? Know that you have been looking at schools, and was wondering if you had made a final decision.

Quoting FtMyersgal:


What do they have you doing there Levi? How long is your internship?


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.


Knock yourself out and enjoy the internship. You will finish just in time as the Hurricane season gets well underway..for the big stuff.

i will look forward to your tid-bits.
Quoting hydrus:
All this bad weather...I think Mother Nature is aggravated...I hope she will not be aggravated during the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.
dice are loaded expect a wild a wacky summer and early fall weather patterns global wide

Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.


Thanks Levi. I know all of us are happy you have this wonderful opportunity! Good Luck!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm sure Levi is enjoying his 2nd severe thunderstorm today in Norman. Also, today is my last regular day in high school. Only got to come back 4 more times for exams. Bittersweet, but I'm excited to start a new chapter in my life and to start learning about meteorology.
Bluestorm, congrats on your upcoming graduation. Your good writing and communication skills are noticeable, even in the short comment above that I quoted. Communication is an area where many young folks who are your contemporaries are lacking. They often don't seem to be concerned about it, and are touchy when criticized about it.

Good communication skills can make a big difference in your success in the world of science, business, or almost any field besides manual labor. And even in fields like construction, good communication skills can take you to higher levels of employment - supervision, sales and planning - or even becoming independent and running your own business.

Whichever path you choose, work hard, and I wish you success!
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.


Welcome to our neck of the woods - enjoy this weather as much as you can - once June/July hits, you'll have plenty of time to get things accomplished (as the heat will literally drive you indoors).

Absolutely thrilled for you! Have followed you for years, and learned a lot from you. Miss the tropical posts, but understand that you'll be busy. Best to you, and if you are to give any presentations - open to the public - would love to be in attendance.





Pavlof Volcano From Station

Astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) photographed this striking view of Pavlof Volcano on May 18, 2013. The oblique perspective from the ISS reveals the three dimensional structure of the ash plume, which is often obscured by the top-down view of most remote sensing satellites.

Situated in the Aleutian Arc about 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) southwest of Anchorage, Pavlof began erupting on May 13, 2013. The volcano jetted lava into the air and spewed an ash cloud 20,000 feet (6,000 meters) high. When photograph ISS036-E-2105 (top) was taken, the space station was about 475 miles south-southeast of the volcano (49.1° North latitude, 157.4° West longitude). The volcanic plume extended southeastward over the North Pacific Ocean.
Quoting daddyjames:



Welcome to our neck of the woods - enjoy this weather as much as you can - once June/July hits, you'll have plenty of time to get things accomplished (as the heat will literally drive you indoors).

Absolutely thrilled for you! Have followed you for years, and learned a lot from you. Miss the tropical posts, but understand that you'll be busy. Best to you, and if you are to give any presentations - open to the public - would love to be in attendance.


Gosh, do I sound like a Levi groupie or what? :D
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.


Best wishes to you that all goes well. Will you do Tropical Tidbits in that period?
Night all. Raining pretty good here again yet nothing on RADAR, nice sleeping weather.



24 hour rain totals.
91E looking nice.



Probs a few hours old, but still pretty accurate.


event detected
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models beginning to show development in the Western Caribbean next week.



A 1008 MB is not even a TS.
Quoting Torito:


Probs a few hours old, but still pretty accurate.

All of it's moving towards the boom storm on the far right, freaky, LOL

Night❤❤
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.

And the building you are in is designed to withstand terrorist attacks and strong tornadoes.
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.
You'll have to update us on your research project. I'm interested to hear what you're doing for research project!

Quoting Xulonn:
Bluestorm, congrats on your upcoming graduation. Your good writing and communication skills are noticeable, even in the short comment above that I quoted. Communication is an area where many young folks who are your contemporaries are lacking. They often don't seem to be concerned about it, and are touchy when criticized about it.

Good communication skills can make a big difference in your success in the world of science, business, or almost any field besides manual labor. And even in fields like construction, good communication skills can take you to higher levels of employment - supervision, sales and planning - or even becoming independent and running your own business.

Whichever path you choose, work hard, and I wish you success!
Thank you for the kind words, sir. I had gone a long way since my childhood because of my deafness. I'm still working on communication skills, but hopefully I'll be a good at communicating with others. I still got a lot to learn, but I'm very pleased I had overcome my disability to graduate from high school in few weeks. When I was just a kindergarten, Wake County educators told my parents I was never going to make it through elementary school because of my deafness so my parents put me in a private school in Missouri. I will have proven so many people wrong by graduating in few weeks. I'm so excited to start a new chapter in Asheville.
This one is up to date, and hi aussie!

Gulf warming up nicely
Link
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Gulf warming up nicely
Link


broken link. xD
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Best wishes to you that all goes well. Will you do Tropical Tidbits in that period?


I'll make time if there's activity, even if I don't normally have time.
Quoting Patrap:Post# 868





Pavlof Volcano From Station

Astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) photographed this striking view of Pavlof Volcano on May 18, 2013. The oblique perspective from the ISS reveals the three dimensional structure of the ash plume, which is often obscured by the top-down view of most remote sensing satellites.

Situated in the Aleutian Arc about 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) southwest of Anchorage, Pavlof began erupting on May 13, 2013. The volcano jetted lava into the air and spewed an ash cloud 20,000 feet (6,000 meters) high. When photograph ISS036-E-2105 (top) was taken, the space station was about 475 miles south-southeast of the volcano (49.1 North latitude, 157.4 West longitude). The volcanic plume extended southeastward over the North Pacific Ocean.


Mornin' Pat..
Just an aside..
Post #509 in my blog has the rest of the pics ect..
Pretty cool.. :)
Oh no....
The National Weather Service in Norman has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
western McClain County in central Oklahoma...
Oklahoma County in central Oklahoma...
central Kingfisher County in central Oklahoma...
northeastern Grady County in central Oklahoma...
Cleveland County in central Oklahoma...
eastern Canadian County in central Oklahoma...
southwestern Logan County in central Oklahoma...

* until 1245 PM CDT

* thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall continue from eastern parts
of Canadian County into Oklahoma and Cleveland counties. Flooding
is already in progress from very heavy rain earlier this morning.
Creeks and small streams in the area are flooding or running
bankfull and some roadways are blocked by high water. Additional
heavy rain is likely in the next hour or so as showers and
thunderstorms continue to move through the area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include Oklahoma
City... Norman... Edmond... Midwest City... Moore... del City... El
Reno... Kingfisher... Stella... Yukon... Bethany... Concho...
Mustang... the Village... Warr Acres... Choctaw... Purcell...
Newcastle... Noble... Tuttle... Nichols Hills... Spencer... Piedmont...
Slaughterville... Nicoma Park... Lexington... Goldsby... Okarche...
Cashion and Washington.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams... urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 3539 9716 3487 9717 3524 9779 3587 9818
3601 9774

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


event detected
C3.9... Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
After looking at aerials on Google map of the damage, one thing stood out the most. The tornado was moving on a NE direction and where there is the Central church of Christ along I-35 the tornado literally changed to an ESE direction going opposite of the church. There is no way the tornado should of turned like that. That is by far the most stunning event I've ever seen, and the evidence of the track change is evident.

Tornado paths wobble and change directions all of the time. I'm not sure what you are implying, but the direction changes of the Moore Tornado (2013) are not unusual, not even close.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


A 1008 MB is not even a TS.

Correct. The models are showing something 10 days down the road, which is shown as a low by the NAVGEM and EURO currently being that their models runs don't go passed 10 days, but the GFS, the one that ultimately sniffed this out has still continued to show development. Still a wait and see situation.
Hey, Levi.

The huge, wind, rain, and constant lightning-producing storms here in the lower 48 are quite different than the low-topped storms that only emit a few rumbles of thunder that you are used to. Am I right?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Tornado paths wobble and change directions all of the time. I'm not sure what you are implying, but the direction changes of the Moore Tornado (2013) are not unusual, not even close.


Divine intervention?
severe weather for me, finally. Might be able to chase something today!

Quoting Patrap:



Preseason anomalies mean nothing. It all comes down to what's present during the season. 2005 produced the exact kind of dramatic warming that were seeing currently in the gulf.
NE TORCON INDEX

Isolated severe thunderstorms with spotty damaging winds and hail in ME, VT, NH, east and southeast NY, CT, RI, east PA, central and east MD, DE, DC, central and east VA, east NC, east SC. TORCON - 3 or less



Upper level environment still too hostile, but appears more settled than a few weeks ago.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Correct. The models are showing something 10 days down the road, which is shown as a low by the NAVGEM and EURO currently being that their models runs don't go passed 10 days, but the GFS, the one that ultimately sniffed this out has still continued to show development. Still a wait and see situation.


I just checked the GFS, and the development it is showing is at 200 HRS.

We all know 200 HRS and beyond is lala land.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Tornado paths wobble and change directions all of the time. I'm not sure what you are implying, but the direction changes of the Moore Tornado (2013) are not unusual, not even close.


Definitely not unusual, but this one was phenomenal.
This was a pic of storms building yesterday afternoon in Downtown Orlando.

Quoting Torito:
severe weather for me, finally. Might be able to chase something today!



Glad I found someone else here on the blog who enjoys severe weather. I thought I was alone!
000
WUUS54 KOUN 231459
SVROUN
OKC005-013-069-095-231545-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0385.130523T1459Z-130523T1545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ATOKA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 956 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILBURN TO
FILLMORE TO SILO TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE TEXOMA...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...
LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURANT...CALERA...COLBERT...CADDO...BOKCHITO...ACH ILLE...TUSHKA...
MILBURN...SILO...CANEY...KENEFIC...KEMP...ARMSTRON G...MEAD...
HENDRIX...WOODVILLE...FILLMORE...LAKE TEXOMA...LITTLE CITY AND
COLEMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY FLOOD CREEKS... DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. DO
NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
&&

LAT...LON 3378 9643 3377 9650 3382 9653 3385 9663
3389 9659 3392 9666 3384 9670 3382 9676
3401 9665 3422 9661 3431 9665 3439 9617
3423 9611 3403 9610 3372 9637
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 279DEG 23KT 3425 9653 3425 9653 3403 9651 3383
9668

$$
Quoting Patrap:





Pavlof Volcano From Station

Astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) photographed this striking view of Pavlof Volcano on May 18, 2013. The oblique perspective from the ISS reveals the three dimensional structure of the ash plume, which is often obscured by the top-down view of most remote sensing satellites.

Situated in the Aleutian Arc about 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) southwest of Anchorage, Pavlof began erupting on May 13, 2013. The volcano jetted lava into the air and spewed an ash cloud 20,000 feet (6,000 meters) high. When photograph ISS036-E-2105 (top) was taken, the space station was about 475 miles south-southeast of the volcano (49.1° North latitude, 157.4° West longitude). The volcanic plume extended southeastward over the North Pacific Ocean.
Awesome picture Pat..Thank you for posting it.
Quoting yonzabam:
Divine intervention?
If so, I wish that whoever was in the driver's seat would have steered away from the two elementary schools full of kids and hit the church instead... :/
Tornado risk that has been recorded so far this month:

Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, I wish that whoever was in the driver's seat would have steered away from the two elementary schools full of kids and hit the church instead...


...what?
Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, I wish that whoever was in the driver's seat would have steered away from the two elementary schools full of kids and hit the church instead...


Nea, I usually don't agree with you. But this post is too true!
Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, I wish that whoever was in the driver's seat would have steered away from the two elementary schools full of kids and hit the church instead...


No religion is allowed in schools anymore Nea
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey, Levi.

The huge, wind, rain, and constant lightning-producing storms here in the lower 48 are quite different than the low-topped storms that only emit a few rumbles of thunder that you are used to. Am I right?


This morning was unbelievable. It brought me right out of bed. I had lightning strike 1/4 mile away on a light pole right in front of my face. I've never really seen cloud-to-ground before. Amazing. We've had copious rainfall as well. It looked like a literal shower out there before sunrise. The mesonet is reporting over 2 inches of rain in some spots, and convection is still redeveloping over OKC. This is terrible for Moore.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
dice are loaded expect a wild a wacky summer and early fall weather patterns global wide

I hope whoever is in charge does not have those dice loaded at us.
Quoting Torito:
NE TORCON INDEX

Isolated severe thunderstorms with spotty damaging winds and hail in ME, VT, NH, east and southeast NY, CT, RI, east PA, central and east MD, DE, DC, central and east VA, east NC, east SC. TORCON - 3 or less



why does eastern NC have a torcon index of 3 but we are not in slight risk for the SPC?

Quoting FunnelVortex:


I just checked the GFS, and the development it is showing is at 200 HRS.

We all know 200 HRS and beyond is lala land.

No. Beyond 240-300 hours Is lala land. 200 hours is only 8 days from now which, considering that, even our normal forecasts go out to 7 days, so really it's believable that anything within 10 days is broadly accurate.
Quoting RitaEvac:


No religion is allowed in schools anymore Nea


No "state-sanctioned" religion is allowed, but let me tell you, everyone was praying to their respective God that day. Even those of us not directly involved.
Quoting ncstorm:


why do eastern NC have a torcon index of 3 but we are not in slight risk for the SPC?



No idea, it makes no sense to me either. I copied the stuff right off the website.
Quoting RitaEvac:


No religion is allowed in schools anymore Nea


I think RitaEvac is having an 'unclear on the concept' kind of a day.
Quoting Levi32:


This morning was unbelievable. It brought me right out of bed. I had lightning strike 1/4 mile away on a light pole right in front of my face. I've never really seen cloud-to-ground before. Amazing. We've had copious rainfall as well. It looked like a literal shower out there before sunrise. The mesonet is reporting over 2 inches of rain in some spots, and convection is still redeveloping over OKC. This is terrible for Moore.


Welcome to the lower 48, Levi.

During heavy thunderstorms, there are sometimes two bolts every second, strong winds, and rain so heavy you cant make out the features on the house across the street!
\;



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231457Z - 231730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL HAZARD TODAY WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WRN
NY INTO NWRN PA. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WHEN GREATER
CLUSTER/LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS APPARENT.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR ROC SWWD TO FKL. AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OFF THE 12Z BUF/PIT RAOBS HAVE BEEN
BREACHED. RELATIVELY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS DOWNSTREAM
OF THIS WHICH IS RETARDING SURFACE HEATING...BUT GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST THE PRESENCE OF 10-12 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS
MAY YIELD POCKETS OF MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A FAST UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WHICH
MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 43167705 43597626 44167566 44447522 44337450 43977408
43407431 42267535 41557649 40617833 40587921 40907967
41357969 43167705
921. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:


Windshear?
Yeah
Quoting RitaEvac:


No religion is allowed in schools anymore Nea


yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, ya think that would work? ridiculous and go ahead and ban me
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No. Beyond 240-300 hours Is lala land. 200 hours is only 8 days from now which, considering that, even our normal forecasts go out to 7 days, so really it's believable that anything within 10 days is broadly accurate.

Care to post any model verifications to support this statement?
Quoting Patrap:


That is yesterday's watch, i believe...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No. Beyond 240-300 hours Is lala land. 200 hours is only 8 days from now which, considering that, even our normal forecasts go out to 7 days, so really it's believable that anything within 10 days is broadly accurate.


I checked again, the development is at 300... sorry guys.

But in the meantime. An epac landfaller below 200.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231523Z - 231800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL HAZARD WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS FAR
ERN PA/NRN NJ. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WHERE GREATER
CLUSTER/LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS APPARENT.

DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE ABE/TTN TO 20 NW EWR AREA AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OFF THE 12Z APG/WAL RAOBS HAVE BEEN BREACHED WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN 15Z METARS. AMIDST A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED 500-1000 J/KG.
MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A FAST UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WHICH MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS
PRIMARILY PRODUCING SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...B GM...

LAT...LON 43067382 43317289 43077200 42707193 42077223 41467298
41107349 40717386 40247443 40187490 40487540 40767527
42097440 43067382
Quoting RitaEvac:
After looking at aerials on Google map of the damage, one thing stood out the most. The tornado was moving on a NE direction and where there is the Central church of Christ along I-35 the tornado literally changed to an ESE direction going opposite of the church. There is no way the tornado should of turned like that. That is by far the most stunning event I've ever seen, and the evidence of the track change is evident.


Yea, for those that missed the updated google earth map earlier today

Link
Quoting yonzabam:


I think RitaEvac is having an 'unclear on the concept' kind of a day.


I think we all have "our days" yonzabam.. :)
It helps when folks pitch in and help explain..
I know I need it more often these days.. :p
I'm a victim of "Evelynn Woods Speed Reading Course" myself..LoL.. :)
Quoting Levi32:


This morning was unbelievable. It brought me right out of bed. I had lightning strike 1/4 mile away on a light pole right in front of my face. I've never really seen cloud-to-ground before. Amazing. We've had copious rainfall as well. It looked like a literal shower out there before sunrise. The mesonet is reporting over 2 inches of rain in some spots, and convection is still redeveloping over OKC. This is terrible for Moore.


Yes, it is.

Do you get hail quite often up in Alaska? I find the lightning here unimpressive (I'm originally from SoFl) but the hail is absolutely amazing to me - well, unless its bouncing off my car.
Quoting Neapolitan:
If so, I wish that whoever was in the driver's seat would have steered away from the two elementary schools full of kids and hit the church instead... :/



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me
Quoting Patrap:


LOL told ya xD

The new one loks better :P
Quoting K8eCane:



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me


And let me clarify. This by no means says that I am glad or not very upset that it hit the schools. Don't twist my words.
Development chance in the purple area moved up again from 2% to 4-6%.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


I checked again, the development is at 300... sorry guys.

But in the meantime. An epac landfaller below 200.


Ok. Then that would make your last comment valid. I do agree that anything past 10 days is la la land. But it still should be monitored, because its not very often that all models agree on development and then not get, at the very least, a low that attempts to develop.
Carribbean still on track to have an above average hurricane season.

Quoting K8eCane:


And let me clarify. This by no means says that I am glad or not very upset that it hit the schools. Don't twist my words.


If you ask people not to twist your words after making a post where you twist someone else's, does that make it a double-knot of irony?
Tension, Arguing, Religion, Preaching, etc. etc. Think I picked the wrong day to be on here...
SST Has been about .2 degrees colder for a while now, even though it isnt much different.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Welcome to the lower 48, Levi.

During heavy thunderstorms, there are sometimes two bolts every second, strong winds, and rain so heavy you cant make out the features on the house across the street!


Had one of those coming home with my father once. Dad was like, "Well, someone is going to have to get the dog."
And he said it in such a way that I immediately knew that the "someone" was me.

I put on a jacket, was only in the rain for <30 seconds, and I still got drenched to the bone. And with lightning crashing all around, too. Thanks Dad. -_-
Quoting daddyjames:


Yes, it is.

Do you get hail quite often up in Alaska? I find the lightning here unimpressive (I'm originally from SoFl) but the hail is absolutely amazing to me - well, unless its bouncing off my car.


I can count the number of times I've been in a hailstorm on my two hands. We get it more often in Fairbanks, but most of the time the storms aren't deep enough to produce. I haven't seen hail in Norman yet, but I'm sure I will soon enough. Next week looks like it might get bad.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Tension, Arguing, Religion, Preaching, etc. etc. Think I picked the wrong day to be on here...


Thank Nea.
Quoting K8eCane:



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me


Totally uncalled for - you may have your differences with Nea, but over the line - as you acknowledge.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Tension, Arguing, Religion, Preaching, etc. etc. Think I picked the wrong day to be on here...

Agreed.

Ill be making a blog post tonight, I think.
Be back later.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROF E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE IVORY AND GRAIN COASTS OF AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N15W TO 1N27W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-42W.

Quoting seminolesfan:

Care to post any model verifications to support this statement?
Quoting Levi32:


I am here for 10 weeks to do a research project. It's an REU program. I'm one of 10 students in it this year. So far with the Moore tornado and now the activity today they have been too busy to get me started yet. It's unbelievable being in here. It's all glass walls, so I can see into SPC and HWT from where I'm sitting in the WFO. Surreal.


Hypothetically speaking, if a major hurricane were to hit the United States in the time period you're here would you be required to visit the damage area as well?
Quoting pcola57:
Todays Updated Drought Monitor..



12 Week animation for comparison..



Hopefully some precip in that area will add to the bucket.

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, for those that missed the updated google earth map earlier today

Link


Hmm, this link doesn't work for me. Perhaps this one is better?
http://google.org/crisismap/2013-oklahoma-tornado
Quoting Torito:
Carribbean still on track to have an above average hurricane season.



I'll believe that when I see an above average vertical instability graph.
The 700mb-500mb layer is super-adiabatic in Amarillo. Could get nasty in northern TX this afternoon if the inversion is broken.

Quoting Levi32:


I can count the number of times I've been in a hailstorm on my two hands. We get it more often in Fairbanks, but most of the time the storms aren't deep enough to produce. I haven't seen hail in Norman yet, but I'm sure I will soon enough. Next week looks like it might get bad.


Oh, don't say that :(

Believe it or not, more afraid of the hail than I am of the tornadoes . . . because of the probabilities of experiencing it.

You enjoy - just don't stand outside too long during it :D
Quoting Levi32:
The 700mb-500mb layer is super-adiabatic in Amarillo. Could get nasty in northern TX this afternoon if the inversion is broken.



Nasty, as in 'tornadoes', or just severe thunderstorms?
Quoting ncstorm:
what is the color red mean??
I don't understand how there was bare slabs of foundations with the debris completely swept away (which I thought was considered EF5 damage) just immediately south of Plaza Towers Elem. school, and the only EF5 damage they site is at the Briarwood school. Does anyone have an explanation?
Quoting K8eCane:



yes if we all wish it on the church, and we praise satan instead, that should work. ridiculous. go ahead and ban me
You misunderstand; no offense was intended. I wasn't trying to turn this into a theological debate; I was merely responding to a suggestion that the church building was spared by divine intervention by saying that if that were so, I wish the divine intervener would have steered the tornado into the church and away from the kids. (Or, better yet, not have spun up an EF-5 tornado and plowed it through a populated area in the first place.)
It's too quiet here...

Quoting Neapolitan:
You misunderstand; no offense was intended. I wasn't trying to turn this into a theological debate; I was merely responding to a suggestion that the church building was spared by divine intervention by saying that if that were so, I wish the divine intervener would have steered the tornado into the church and away from the kids. (Or, better yet, not have spun up an EF-5 tornado and plowed it through a populated area in the first place.)

And the original insinuation that the tornado changed direction at a church is stemming from preliminary survey tracks. If you really dig into the data, you can see that some of the survey points do not line up perfectly with the structures discussed. Also of note, you can see the delineations of damage do not match perfectly to the satellite pictures.
The track still needs clean-up, and is generalized more for the city scale, yet people are trying to analyze direction changes at the neighboorhood scale that amount to nothing more than a vertex in a polygon outline.
Jeff Masters at 18:35 :D

Link
Quoting opal92nwf:
I don't understand how there was bare slabs of foundations with the debris completely swept away (which I thought was considered EF5 damage) just immediately south of Plaza Towers Elem. school, and the only EF5 damage they site is at the Briarwood school. Does anyone have an explanation?

According to the new EF-scale, homes of typical construction that are completely destroyed with all walls removed down to the slab is estimated as 200mph winds. EF5 damage starts at 201mph. Homes must have signs of higher-than-typical construction for them to be classified as EF5.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/2.html

Similar situation for elementary schools. The Briarwood school is relatively new and they likely found evidence that it was built far above code and better than typical construction such that it's damage was caused by winds near the upper bound for the degree of damage sustained.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/15.html
961. wxmod
From www.rt.com

"Russia to evacuate Arctic floating research laboratory as ice melts

"Russia has ordered the urgent evacuation of the 16 crewmembers of a drifting Arctic research station, after the ice floe that hosts the floating laboratory began to disintegrate. Natural Resources and Ecology Minister Sergey Donskoy on Thursday set a three-day deadline to draft a plan to evacuate the North Pole-40 floating research station. %u201CThe ice is disintegrating,%u201D AFP quoted a ministry spokesperson as saying. %u201CCracks appeared in the floe.%u201D If the situation is not addressed, it may also result in the loss of equipment and contaminate the environment near Canada's economic zone."

MODIS satellite photo

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Moore tornado

Quoting Torito:
Moore tornado

Quoting wxmod:
From www.rt.com

"Russia to evacuate Arctic floating research laboratory as ice melts

"Russia has ordered the urgent evacuation of the 16 crewmembers of a drifting Arctic research station, after the ice floe that hosts the floating laboratory began to disintegrate. Natural Resources and Ecology Minister Sergey Donskoy on Thursday set a three-day deadline to draft a plan to evacuate the North Pole-40 floating research station. %u201CThe ice is disintegrating,%u201D AFP quoted a ministry spokesperson as saying. %u201CCracks appeared in the floe.%u201D If the situation is not addressed, it may also result in the loss of equipment and contaminate the environment near Canada's economic zone."

MODIS satellite photo

Can you post the article link please? Thank's!
Quoting seminolesfan:

Its crazy, right? Its almost like the long range(over 100 hrs) models are just guessing at the outcome!

Like they are not really very accurate at ALL and are almost just a mirage.

Its a wonder why sooo many people get soooo ga-ga over super long range model predictions, right?!?


At least we can say with absolutely certainty that the Earth is warmed by man's activities and sea level will rise in the next 20 years. For certain.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I see. Bastardi was referring to this weekend, when the US celebrates Memorial Day with a three-day weekend. I inadvertently referred to traditional Memorial Day, which is the 30th--the first day of the 8-14 forecast. (My great-grandfather was killed at the tail end of WWI; in deference to my great-grandmother, and to abide by her wishes that we continue tradition, our family has always honored his death [and the subsequent deaths of a few others in WWII and Vietnam] on May 30, which sometimes leads to confusion, as here.)

At any rate, there may be a few flakes at higher elevations, but that forecast is totally out of whack. ;-)


Law changed in 1968. Don't be so conservative.

I kid, I kid.
Quoting oracle28:


Law changed in 1968. Don't be so conservative.

I kid, I kid. My grandfather served in WWII. The greatest generation, for sure