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Violent EF-5 Tornado Causes Catastrophic Damage in Moore, Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:00 PM GMT on May 21, 2013

A massive and violent tornado 1.3 miles wide smashed through Moore, Oklahoma near 3 pm CDT Monday, causing catastrophic damage along a 17-mile long path. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma announced that it has found at least one area of EF-5 damage near Briarwood Elementary School, with winds of 200 - 210 mph. Damage was extreme and covered a huge area, and many buildings swept away down to their foundations. The tornado was on the ground for 51 minutes, from 2:45 - 3:36 pm CDT. This averages out to a 20 mph forward speed, and the tornado was initially moving even slower--20 mph. Violent tornadoes typically move considerably faster, sometimes at speeds in excess of 60 mph, and the relatively slow motion of the Moore tornado contributed to the extreme damage by exposing buildings to a longer period of violent winds than usual. A tornado warning for the storm was issued at 2:40 pm CDT, sixteen minutes before it touched down. On average, a tornado warning comes about thirteen minutes before touchdown. A tornado emergency was declared for Moore at 3:01 pm, about twenty minutes before the tornado entered the west side of the city. The debris ball from the tornado, as seen on Doppler radar, expanded to over two miles in diameter, and debris was carried over 100 miles from Moore. The National Weather Service office in Tulsa, Oklahoma reported at 4:13 pm CDT that they were "seeing reports of light tornado debris falling in the Tulsa metro area again this evening, likely from the Moore area." Tulsa is 100 miles east-northeast of Moore.


Figure 1. The Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013. Image credit: WIkipedia.


Figure 2. A fire burns in the Tower Plaza Addition in Moore, Oklahoma, following a tornado on Monday, May 20, 2013. Photo: Sue Ogrocki, ASSOCIATED PRESS.


Figure 3. Flipped vehicles are piled up outside the heavily damaged Moore Medical Center in Moore, Oklahoma, after a powerful tornado ripped through the area on May 20, 2013. On the enhanced Fujita Scale, the maximum degree of damage (11), indicating EF-5 winds of 210 mph, is "Significant damage to building envelope" on an institutional building like a hospital or government office. The damage to the Moore Medical Center may qualify as EF-5 damage. Image credit: Brett Deering/Getty Images)

Here is the tornado warning that was issued at 2:40 pm CDT, sixteen minutes before the tornado touched down:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEWCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...NORMAN...MOORE...NEWCASTLE...BRIDGE CREEK AND VALLEY BROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.


At 3:01 pm CDT, five minutes after the tornado touched down and about twenty minutes before the tornado hit the west side of Moore, the NWS issued a "Tornado Emergency" advisory:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR NEWCASTLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MOORE AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA CITY.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...NEWCASTLE...STANLEY DRAPER LAKE...TINKER AIR FORCE BASE AND VALLEY BROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING NOW.

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.


Figure 4. The annual number of EF-3 and stronger tornadoes, 1954 - 2012. The greatest number of these dangerous tornadoes was 131 in 1974, the year of the notorious "Super Outbreak." The minimum was just 15, set in 1987. The average is 43 per year. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 5. Violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes make up only 1% of all tornadoes, but account for well over half of all deaths. Image credit: tornadoproject.com.

A very bad tornado in an otherwise quiet year for violent tornadoes
According to NOAA, the U.S. has averaged 43 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes per year during the period 1954 - 2012. With tornado season nearly half over, we are well below the average pace for these most dangerous tornadoes--only nine EF-3 and EF-4 tornadoes have been recorded so far in 2013. An average year should have had at least fifteen of these tornadoes by this point in the year. Here are the nine EF-3 and stronger tornadoes so far in 2013:

EF-5, 200 - 210 mph winds, May 20, Moore, Oklahoma. Many deaths and injuries.
EF-4, 166 - 200 mph winds, May 19, Shawnee, Oklahoma. 2 deaths.
EF-4, 180 mph winds, May 15, Granbury, TX. 6 deaths, 24+ injuries.
EF-4, 165 - 185 mph winds, May 18, Rozel, Kansas.
EF-4, 170 mph winds, February 10, Hattiesburg, MS. 0 deaths, 82 injuries,
EF-3, 140 mph winds, May 15, Cleburne, TX. No deaths or injuries.
EF-3, 160 mph winds, January 30, Adairsville, GA. 1 death, 17 injuries, 363 buildings damaged or destroyed.
EF-3, 145 mph winds, April 11, Kemper County, AL. 1 death, 9 injuries.
EF-3, 136 - 165 mph winds, May 19, Luther - Carney, Oklahoma.

Moore tornado likely to be one of the five most damaging tornadoes in history
Moore has the unenviable distinction of having previously experienced the 4th costliest tornado in world history, the notorious May 3, 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore EF-5 tornado. There have been only six billion-dollar (2011 dollars) tornadoes in history:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.8 billion
2) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.7 billion
3) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 19780, $1.5 billion
4) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
5) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
6) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion

The May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore tornado killed 36 people and injured 583. It damaged or destroyed 8132 homes, 1041 apartments, 260 businesses, 11 public buildings and seven churches. According to rough estimates of the size of the damaged area made by helicopters operated by news9.com and kfor.com, the damage footprint from the May 20, 2013 tornado is easily twice as large. I expect that after the damage tally from the May 20 tornado is added up, Moore will hold two of the top five spots on the list of most damaging tornadoes in history, and the May 20 tornado may approach the Joplin tornado as the costliest twister of all-time.


Figure 6. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 21, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and small portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Louisiana. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Here we go again: Another big severe weather day today in the Midwest
The Moore tornado was the first of twenty tornadoes reported on May 20--the third consecutive day with twenty or more tornadoes in the Midwest. Each of these days had a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather, as advised by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC.) The SPC is calling for a fourth consecutive day with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Tuesday), with the greatest danger occurring over Northeast Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and small portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Louisiana. Once again, we can expect to see isolated supercells capable of spawning dangerous violent tornadoes during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The severe weather outbreak moves east and will begin to wind down on Wednesday, when only a "Slight Risk" of severe weather is expected over New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, plus northern portions of Kentucky, West Virginia, and Maryland.


Video 1. Remarkable time-lapse sequence of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 20, 2013, taken from a news helicopter.


Video 2. Stormchasers caught the dramatic sounds and sights of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 as it moved through the city.


Video 3. Video of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado of May 20, 2013 taken from a smartphone as the tornado moved across an open field.

Jeff Lechus filmed this remarkable video from his car while trying to get to his son. The flying debris near his car was extremely dangerous, and he is lucky he is alive.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the deadliest tornadoes of all time in his April, 2011 post. Since that post, the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, killed 158 people, making it the 7th deadliest tornado in history.

My post, 2011: Year of the Tornado from December 2011, detailing the remarkable tornado records set in 2011.

I saved a 10-frame animation of the radar reflectivity image from the Moore tornado here.

I greatly appreciate all the valuable links members of the WU community have posted here, and I have used many of them in my posts over the past day. Keep up the great work!

How to help
Portlight Strategies, an organization that supports disaster victims with disabilities, will be working with shelter operators and disability stakeholder organizations in Oklahoma to serve the needs of people with disabilities. Further information and how to offer additional support can be found on their website.

Donations can be made to American Red Cross disaster relief at redcross.org/weather or by texting WEATHER to 90999 to donate $10.

Donations can be made on The Salvation Army's website or by texting STORM to 80888 to donate $10. You can also call to make donations of other monetary amounts at (800) 725-2769.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It's too close for comfort. An Oklahoma resident captured terrifying footage of a tornado forming.. that is believed to be the same one that tore through the town of Moore. The YouTube clip by a man named, Charles Cook, is called, "The birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado".

object width="560" height="315">
Quoting snotly:
I remember seeing this photo when I was young.

I was wondering if the actual tornado was to the right and if this was just a satellite funnel?

Link

Anyone know this tornado? Something makes me think it was in Montgomery, AL.


You're on the NOAA photo library. They should have documentation?
Quoting nigel20:

The met service of Jamaica said that their radar is now up and runnuing, but it may not be available on their website until about July.


I'll be watching - thank you!!
AT ONE POINT IN THE ATLANTIC hurricane floyd had sustained winds of 165mph with gust at 225mph
Doctor Masters,

What does it take to become a meteorologist? I am thinking about becoming one myself. I am already involved in the Skywarn program, and I have seen a few things in the year I have been doing this. :) What type of degrees from College must you have? :)

Thanks.

AETHOMAS
What winds of 210 mph do to a vehicle:

508. SLU
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics!

Our radar as well as the Trinidad radar have been down for sometime. The Met service of Jamaica said that their radar was recently repaired and is now ready for the hurricane season, but it's not available on their website...hopefully it will be back on their website in the near future as it's a great tool to have during the hurricane season. It seems as if the Trinidad radar is still down, but maybe our friends in Trinidad can gives us more info on their radar.


The Trinidad radar was struck by lightning around April 2011 and has been down since then. Last thing I heard was that the TT Met Office was trying to order the damaged parts for the radar from overseas.
Oklahoma senators embrace disaster aid after opposing Sandy relief bill

My favorite part:

"That's totally different," Inhofe told cable TV network MSNBC. "Everybody was getting in and exploiting the tragedy that took place. That won't happen in Oklahoma."

Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who also opposed the Sandy appropriation because it was not offset with budget savings elsewhere, pledged to make a similar "pay-for" demand if further disaster funds were needed. For now, however, he was focused on getting aid to the victims.

"As the ranking member of the Senate committee that oversees FEMA, I can assure Oklahomans that any and all available aid will be delivered without delay," Coburn said in a statement.


The weather is showing them up as being as hypocritical as that guy from MS who opposed aid for Sandy after himself actively advocating for aid after Katrina. No matter how bold a face they try to put on it, they've got egg on that face.

People should get the emergency aid they need, and it shouldn't be tied to the politics of their state, or governor, or representative. I note Oklahoma residents aren't asking who their rescuers voted for, nor are the rescue crews checking to see whether the people living in an area voted the "right" way.
Wow, so we had a terrible disaster repeat in the same city with a tornado. Let's hope we don't have the same thing with a hurricane this year.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oklahoma senators embrace disaster aid after opposing Sandy relief bill

My favorite part:

"That's totally different," Inhofe told cable TV network MSNBC. "Everybody was getting in and exploiting the tragedy that took place. That won't happen in Oklahoma."

Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who also opposed the Sandy appropriation because it was not offset with budget savings elsewhere, pledged to make a similar "pay-for" demand if further disaster funds were needed. For now, however, he was focused on getting aid to the victims.

"As the ranking member of the Senate committee that oversees FEMA, I can assure Oklahomans that any and all available aid will be delivered without delay," Coburn said in a statement.


The weather is showing them up as being as hypocritical as that guy from MS who opposed aid for Sandy after himself actively advocating for aid after Katrina. No matter how bold a face they try to put on it, they've got egg on that face.

People should get the emergency aid they need, and it shouldn't be tied to the politics of their state, or governor, or representative. I note Oklahoma residents aren't asking who their rescuers voted for, nor are the rescue crews checking to see whether the people living in an area voted the "right" way.



Big SIGH - turns TV off
An reason for the musical cars. (You! Yes! You behind the bikesheds! Stand still, laddie!")

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It's too close for comfort. An Oklahoma resident captured terrifying footage of a tornado forming.. that is believed to be the same one that tore through the town of Moore. The YouTube clip by a man named, Charles Cook, is called, "The birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado".

object width="560" height="315">
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What winds of 210 mph do to a vehicle:

This is from the 1999 Moore OK storm.An F5 tornado from Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 3rd, 1999, wrapped a large four-wheel drive pickup around a utility pole, stripping most of the truck's sheet metal. Several other automobiles were strewn through the surrounding fields.
Date 7 May 1999
There it is...#59:

Quoting anotherwrongyear:
AT ONE POINT IN THE ATLANTIC hurricane floyd had sustained winds of 165mph with gust at 225mph


Floyd peaked at 155mph.

Hurricanes like Wilma, for example, peaked at 185mph.
Quoting hydrus:
This is from the 1999 Moore OK storm.An F5 tornado from Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 3rd, 1999, wrapped a large four-wheel drive pickup around a utility pole, stripping most of the truck's sheet metal. Several other automobiles were strewn through the surrounding fields.
Date 7 May 1999


Apology ahead of time - that looks like "art" for "burning man".
Quoting docrod:


I have the Curacao link at work - it is working as of this afternoon - working on all the rest. I'll post the links tomorrow. If you want the list please pm me. Jamaica has been down for a long time. I'm still trying to find out if the Cayman Doppler will ever get completed. If anyone has news on that please pm me.

Cayman radar is compleated and operational for a good while and is also online now you may find news about it on cayman27.com.ky and find the radar on the CI's NWS website and is now on crownweather.com tropical page(for the past 2 days now)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Cayman radar is compleated and operational for a good while and is also online now you may find news about it on cayman27.com.ky and find the radar on the CI's NWS website and is now on crownweather.com tropical page(for the past 2 days now)


thank you - as I said, checked the link today - checking all my links - going to take a week!! ;>)

just misread your post - correction below
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Cayman radar is compleated and operational for a good while and is also online now you may find news about it on cayman27.com.ky and find the radar on the CI's NWS website and is now on crownweather.com tropical page(for the past 2 days now)


Got it - thank you

Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Floyd peaked at 155mph.

Hurricanes like Wilma, for example, peaked at 185mph.
The name says it all Teddy...
Quoting washingtonian115:
The name says it all Teddy...


Oh gosh, I hadn't even noticed. What's with that kid's obsession with WU?
Well, our power just went out here... I'm using battery backup for internet access. lightning is still pretty fierce.....
Quoting Civicane49:
There is a nice tropical wave over the central Atlantic moving generally westward. There is also a nice spin of that wave on the CIMSS Total Precipitable Water. The wave will continue to move westward and later west-northwestward and reach the Lesser Antilles by around next week. Development of this wave is possible in the western Caribbean as hinted on the GFS. Shear is forecast to lessen gradually across the Caribbean by the time the wave should arrive in this area.


You said Development of this wave is possible in the western Caribbean as hinted on the GFS. the only wave that GFS develops is the one in the caribbean now moves into E Pac become a storm then the system makes landfall and moves back over the NW Caribbean and redevlops into storm
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh gosh, I hadn't even noticed. What's with that kid's obsession with WU?
Perhaps revenge.You would've thunk it got old the first two times..
Quoting docrod:


Got it - thank you

Link


No prob
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Quoting Civicane49:
There is a nice tropical wave over the central Atlantic moving generally westward. There is also a nice spin of that wave on the CIMSS Total Precipitable Water. The wave will continue to move westward and later west-northwestward and reach the Lesser Antilles by around next week. Development of this wave is possible in the western Caribbean as hinted on the GFS. Shear is forecast to lessen gradually across the Caribbean by the time the wave should arrive in this area.


You said Development of this wave is possible in the western Caribbean as hinted on the GFS. the only wave that GFS develops is the one in the caribbean now moves into E Pac become a storm then the system makes landfall and moves back over the NW Caribbean and redevlops into storm


The May 31st plus GFS model runs have been "hinting" at something tropical off the Yucatan for some time. There have been both Atlantic and Pacific solutions. In the Atlantic, most of the solutions have created a system that moved toward the Gulf and Texas through the Florida Panhandle. Lately, the solutions has been more toward the Keys and east of Florida.

Personally I'm betting on a Gulf solution with something weak.

I'm also going to take a loan out on the house and buy a ton of lottery tickets tomorrow! ;>) - take care
My headlines from late weekend

Increased Storminess & Posible flooding In The Western Caribbean By Next Weekend; Possible Tropical Development Still In Play The Following Week In The Western Caribbean

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
My headlines from late weekend

Increased Storminess & Posible flooding In The Western Caribbean By Next Weekend; Possible Tropical Development Still In Play The Following Week In The Western Caribbean



That looks likely imho.
Nashville, TN (KOHX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Quoting docrod:


The May 31st plus GFS model runs have been "hinting" at something tropical off the Yucatan for some time. There have been both Atlantic and Pacific solutions. In the Atlantic, most of the solutions have created a system that moved toward the Gulf and Texas through the Florida Panhandle. Lately, the solutions has been more toward the Keys and east of Florida.

Personally I'm betting on a Gulf solution with something weak.

I'm also going to take a loan out on the house and buy a ton of lottery tickets tomorrow! ;>) - take care

I say Gulf system very unlikely I'm going with Cuba Florida plus overall GFS been predicting at Honduras Cayman Cuba and Florida storm from like the 17 of this month so yeah I'm going with Cuba/Florida plus CMC/GGEM and NOGAPS/NAVGEM agree with Cuba/Florida storm
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/05/21/18 5857916/why-oklahomans-dont-like-basements


Wow; cool read - I'm originally from Iowa and I always thought at that time, that basements were standard equipment. In all the places I've lived since, none of the houses had basements. Nevertheless, basements were once a fact of life to me.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oklahoma senators embrace disaster aid after opposing Sandy relief bill

My favorite part:

"That's totally different," Inhofe told cable TV network MSNBC. "Everybody was getting in and exploiting the tragedy that took place. That won't happen in Oklahoma."

Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who also opposed the Sandy appropriation because it was not offset with budget savings elsewhere, pledged to make a similar "pay-for" demand if further disaster funds were needed. For now, however, he was focused on getting aid to the victims.

"As the ranking member of the Senate committee that oversees FEMA, I can assure Oklahomans that any and all available aid will be delivered without delay," Coburn said in a statement.


The weather is showing them up as being as hypocritical as that guy from MS who opposed aid for Sandy after himself actively advocating for aid after Katrina. No matter how bold a face they try to put on it, they've got egg on that face.

People should get the emergency aid they need, and it shouldn't be tied to the politics of their state, or governor, or representative. I note Oklahoma residents aren't asking who their rescuers voted for, nor are the rescue crews checking to see whether the people living in an area voted the "right" way.


Got to love politics...

SARCASM FLAG: ON
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oklahoma senators embrace disaster aid after opposing Sandy relief bill

My favorite part:

"That's totally different," Inhofe told cable TV network MSNBC. "Everybody was getting in and exploiting the tragedy that took place. That won't happen in Oklahoma."

Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who also opposed the Sandy appropriation because it was not offset with budget savings elsewhere, pledged to make a similar "pay-for" demand if further disaster funds were needed. For now, however, he was focused on getting aid to the victims.

"As the ranking member of the Senate committee that oversees FEMA, I can assure Oklahomans that any and all available aid will be delivered without delay," Coburn said in a statement.


The weather is showing them up as being as hypocritical as that guy from MS who opposed aid for Sandy after himself actively advocating for aid after Katrina. No matter how bold a face they try to put on it, they've got egg on that face.

People should get the emergency aid they need, and it shouldn't be tied to the politics of their state, or governor, or representative. I note Oklahoma residents aren't asking who their rescuers voted for, nor are the rescue crews checking to see whether the people living in an area voted the "right" way.


Agreed. I knew this was coming once I heard about the tornado yesterday.
I thought I was bad at bowling, but Moore's EF-5 apparently needs to try a new sport. #gutterball

;-)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There it is...#59:



The Arkansas hole! Seriously odd that every state bordering Arkansas has had at least 1 EF-5 tornado and Arkansas has had none.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I thought I was bad at bowling, but Moore's EF-5 apparently needs to try a new sport.

;-)


Weren't bowling balls thrown around by the tornado too? Rage quit after failing to knock down the pins maybe... ;)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I say Gulf system very unlikely I'm going with Cuba Florida plus overall GFS been predicting at Honduras Cayman Cuba and Florida storm from like the 17 of this month so yeah I'm going with Cuba/Florida plus CMC/GGEM and NOGAPS/NAVGEM agree with Cuba/Florida storm


We shall see! Nice to see that "Nogaps" is alive and kicking as Navgem. That model has in the long past been a spectacular outlier and correct. Even Jim Cantore came flying into my town and NOGAPS spoiled his day. When I went to say hello one morning, I got a great tour of the van and all the techno stuff they carry with them.

Nogaps seems to predict southward turns of westward moving systems better than the rest. I've done no statistics on this, just a gut feeling.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I thought I was bad at bowling, but Moore's EF-5 apparently needs to try a new sport. #gutterball

;-)


gutter fail ... I suck at bowling but I love trying.
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, AccuWeather
Quoting SLU:


The Trinidad radar was struck by lightning around April 2011 and has been down since then. Last thing I heard was that the TT Met Office was trying to order the damaged parts for the radar from overseas.

Thanks for the inf, SLU!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, AccuWeather


Ha! :) But do you have a link for that? I don't see it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, AccuWeather


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, AccuWeather
May as well call it the first EF-5 ever... SMH.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, INAccuWeather


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/05/21/18 5857916/why-oklahomans-dont-like-basements


http://www.superiorwalls.com/pages/advantage

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Dry
Superior Walls’ special 5,000+ psi concrete mix is moisture resistant. Because additional dampproofing is not required, this can help you save both time and money. With the specified crushed stone footing and perimeter drain, water will be directed away from your foundation, helping to keep your home dry. With our patented technologies and superior manufacturing methods, our basements are the very finest in the world and are backed by a 15 year warranty from the manufacturing facility / licensee.*

Warm
Superior Walls foundations feature a continuous layer of insulation bonded directly to the concrete, resulting in high energy efficiency to help you reduce energy costs. Our walls have galvanized steel stud nailers built into the concrete studs, with room to easily increase the amount of insulation without any need to install additional framing.

Smart
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Superior
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-------——---------------

No excuse really.

You can get above grade systems too.

Sweet

Oh this isn't new, I visited a new factory in 1988.

Cheers
Qazulight
The San Juan radar will be up on Wednesday and it will have new tools.

Link

Quoting hydrus:
This is from the 1999 Moore OK storm.An F5 tornado from Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 3rd, 1999, wrapped a large four-wheel drive pickup around a utility pole, stripping most of the truck's sheet metal. Several other automobiles were strewn through the surrounding fields.
Date 7 May 1999

I know that doppler radar measured winds in excess of 300 mph in the 1999 tornado, but at what altitude was it measured?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, AccuWeather


My reaction in GIF form...

Link

(Don't click on link if you're extremely sensitive to cussing)
Quoting Bluestorm5:


My reaction in GIF form...

Link

(Don't click on link if you're extremely sensitive to cussing)


re ported.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The San Juan radar will be up on Wednesday and it will have new tools.

Link



Thank you Tropicsweatherpr - I'm doing a major review of all my radar and other tropical links this week. I've needed to do this for a few years.

Wish I could find the old actual gitmo military link I had 10 years ago (not the NOAA link). They seem to have shut that one down.
Quoting MississippiWx:


re ported.
Either you're just kidding or I'm breaking some sort of rule...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Either you're just kidding or I'm breaking some sort of rule...


Doing my best Taz impression, actually.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Doing my best Taz impression, actually.


grins
Quoting MississippiWx:


Doing my best Taz impression, actually.
Haha, I see. I just haven't been on blog long enough to know exact rules. I'm sure Taz will lose it if he see the post, haha.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, our power just went out here... I'm using battery backup for internet access. lightning is still pretty fierce.....


Was quite a show! Wish it didn't end :p
Quoting MississippiWx:


Doing my best Taz impression, actually.




too funny
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Haha, I see. I just haven't been on blog long enough to know exact rules. I'm sure Taz will lose it if he see the post, haha.


reproted!!
Quoting Tazmanian:




too funny


:-)

You know I love you, Taz. :-)
Patrap passed you today in the comment count Taz! You better get cracking!
any ways has any one here about the new Xbox one? thats they showed off ??



all so any one that uesing google chorme am happy too report that google chrome 27 is out i have all ready upgrade from chorm 26 too 27
I'm sure this has been posted before, but here's the video again for those who have not seen it. Amazing video.

Link
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Patrap passed you today in the comment count Taz!




oh well
Quoting Tazmanian:
any ways has any one here about the new Xbox one? thats they showed off ??



all so any one that uesing google chorme am happy too report that google chrome 27 is out i have all ready upgrade from chorm 26 too 27


Xbox is supposed to be way different/way better. Should be a big upgrade.
Quoting Tazmanian:




too funny
Haha, glad you're taking the joke well :) And I wasn't too impressed with Xbox One. They should just make it gaming console and not TV console and stuff. Same for PS4.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What winds of 210 mph do to a vehicle:

Was this picture actually taken where the EF-5 damage was done?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm sure this has been posted before, but here's the video again for those who have not seen it. Amazing video.

Link
Wow, crazy...I love how the reporters helped her out lol
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Haha, glad you're taking the joke well :) And I wasn't too impressed with Xbox One. They should just make it gaming console and not TV console and stuff. Same for PS4.



am not march of a gamer but i do injoy new things
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm sure this has been posted before, but here's the video again for those who have not seen it. Amazing video.

Link


Yep, I posted it earlier. Felt really bad when the woman was trying to pick up that tin roofing off the dog and dropped it right back on the dog. The reporters were just sitting there watching until that happened.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I thought I was bad at bowling, but Moore's EF-5 apparently needs to try a new sport.

;-)

Hit everything but the pins.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep, I posted it earlier. Felt really bad when the woman was trying to pick up that tin roofing off the dog and dropped it right back on the dog. The reporters were just sitting there watching until that happened.
Owning an schnauzer, that video got me crying earlier...
Quoting docrod:


reproted!!
lmao..Reproted !
Quoting hydrus:
Hit everything but the pins.


Kind of like throwing the ball in the air through the roof when it gets stuck on your thumb...Oops.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Owning an schnauzer, that video got me crying earlier...


Yep, I'm a bit of a dog lover myself. It would mean the world to me if I could salvage my dog out of all that mess. I'm sure that was an instant emotional lift for that lady. Great for her.
Quoting hydrus:
lmao..Reproted !



reported this kiding
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep, I'm a bit of a dog lover myself. It would mean the world to me if I could salvage my dog out of all that mess. I'm sure that was an instant emotional lift for that lady. Great for her.
Very good for her...
Quoting hydrus:
This is from the 1999 Moore OK storm.An F5 tornado from Moore, Oklahoma tornado on May 3rd, 1999, wrapped a large four-wheel drive pickup around a utility pole, stripping most of the truck's sheet metal. Several other automobiles were strewn through the surrounding fields.
Date 7 May 1999

I know that doppler radar measured winds in excess of 300 mph in the 1999 tornado, but at what altitude was it measured?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Oklahoma senators embrace disaster aid after opposing Sandy relief bill

My favorite part:

"That's totally different," Inhofe told cable TV network MSNBC. "Everybody was getting in and exploiting the tragedy that took place. That won't happen in Oklahoma."

Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, who also opposed the Sandy appropriation because it was not offset with budget savings elsewhere, pledged to make a similar "pay-for" demand if further disaster funds were needed. For now, however, he was focused on getting aid to the victims.

"As the ranking member of the Senate committee that oversees FEMA, I can assure Oklahomans that any and all available aid will be delivered without delay," Coburn said in a statement.


The weather is showing them up as being as hypocritical as that guy from MS who opposed aid for Sandy after himself actively advocating for aid after Katrina. No matter how bold a face they try to put on it, they've got egg on that face.

People should get the emergency aid they need, and it shouldn't be tied to the politics of their state, or governor, or representative. I note Oklahoma residents aren't asking who their rescuers voted for, nor are the rescue crews checking to see whether the people living in an area voted the "right" way.


President Obama telephoned Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin and U.S. Rep. Tom Cole soon after the tornado struck.

The President made clear that the country would stand behind the people of Oklahoma as they continued to respond and recover.

He told them that the resources of the federal government would be available to them both during the immediate period and during the longer recovery.

"On Monday night, Obama signed a disaster declaration for Oklahoma, clearing the way for federal aid. The White House said he received updates on the tragedy throughout the evening.

Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has been dispatched to Oklahoma to coordinate the federal government's response to the tragedy, the White House said.

The federal response includes survivor assistance, damage assessment and search and rescue teams."

He told both Fallin and Cole that if there was anything that they needed and weren't getting through normal channels to call him directly.

Source
Anyone have any information what data gathering, or research the
NASA806 U2 aircraft was doing over the OK area during this tornado
as shown here:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NASA806/histor y/20130520/1545Z/R2508/KPMD





R2508
Palmdale Regional (KPMD%u2013info)
Palmdale, CA
03:47PMUTC
04:47PMPDT
Scheduled: 03:45PMUTC
Scheduled: 03:32PMPDT


Duration: 8 hours
Monday, May 20, 2013
Status Landed yesterday. (track log & graph)
Aircraft Lockheed ER-2 (single-jet) (U2/I%u2013photos)
Speed Filed: 400 kts (graph)
Altitude Filed: 65,000 feet (graph)
Route EDW TRM .....
I wish the quote gave the comment number.
Like so...

Quoting snotly:
581. I wish the quote gave the comment number.
(Oklahoma State Representative)
Cole spoke to ABC News from the ground in Oklahoma, where he said the federal and local response has been “swift and robust.”

“The feds have been terrific. The resources have been there and the response has been excellent,” said Cole, who toured the devastated region along with the other members of the state’s congressional delegation.

Cole’s hometown of Moore, Okla., was nearly destroyed by the mile-wide storm. Cole said he had memories of working as a teenager at one of the local schools that was all but destroyed by the storm.


Source

Just the day before Rep. Cole had been taking part in partisan attacks on the Administration.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


The Arkansas hole! Seriously odd that every state bordering Arkansas has had at least 1 EF-5 tornado and Arkansas has had none.


Arkansas had an F-5 back in the 1920s (pre-dating the timeframe of the map)
Well, thank goodness, it wasn't as bad as the tri-state tornado, the wiki article quotes "The tornado carried sheets of iron as far as 50 miles (80 km) away."

Link

Do we have any hard data on why they gave it 210 mph or is that just the criteria for EF-5?

What were the dynamics of the atmosphere yesterday over OKC, anyone have the skew-t and the CAPE values or lapse rates?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/05/21/18 5857916/why-oklahomans-dont-like-basements


A very interesting article. I also read the link to the company that does install basements. Looks like a few early experiences have turned into a cultural prejudice, not to mention easier profits for contractors, despite safety concerns.

I live in a part of the world where nearly every home has a basement. The home I grew up in had to have its basement blasted out of granite bedrock. No issue with storms here; it's another cultural prejudice.

But here in my 2nd-floor apartment, I sure do miss having a basement. Basements are cool (literally, in summer), and my cave-man ancestry digs an abode within the earth.
Quoting snotly:
Like so...



Yes, that would be useful.
is that our first blob?

589. Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat of those clouds over the Bahamas..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It's too close for comfort. An Oklahoma resident captured terrifying footage of a tornado forming.. that is believed to be the same one that tore through the town of Moore. The YouTube clip by a man named, Charles Cook, is called, "The birth of the May 20, 2013 tornado".

object width="560" height="315">
TOTALLY INCREDIBLE video. I'm watching it wondering if anyone's there and on the phone to NWS reporting this setdown. I am so dog tired from watching and wondering if I'd have to dodge a tornado the past couple days, and then the tornadoes that did happen, and right now yawning, but I had to sign in and say thanks for posting that. Belongs in a classroom, in every met's library, in storm spotter training... what a great video this person captured of an EF 5 forming.

When my brain comes back in the morning, I'll point it out to NWS Norman in case they haven't seen it.
Thanks again for posting it, GeoffreyWPB.


BahaBlobness..
Will have a blog about the upcoming set up and my personal opinion of what might happen with what the models are predicting to be our first Named Storm of the season.
Night Guys
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Will have a blog about the upcoming set up and my personal opinion of what might happen with what the models are predicting to be our first Named Storm of the season.
Night Guys

Goodnight Dean!
My condolences to everyone in Moore.

I read with interest the story about debris landing as far away as Tulsa but I think I might be able to outdo that.

I live in Central Nebraska about 450 miles North of Moore. As I was mowing my lawn this afternoon I happened to look up as a piece of paper came fluttering down out of the sky. I picked it up but did not make a connection to Moore until several minutes later.

The paper is from a manual for a 3" centrifugal pump. I have never seen nor heard of the brand of pump in this area and that aroused my curiosity. Then, out of the blue (much as the paper had arrived) Moore popped into my head.

Given the nature of the paper, a proveable connection to Moore cannot be made, but if anyone from Moore is missing a page from a pump manual, I have it!

By the nature of the drawings on the page (obviously made prior to CAD), I suspect the manual sat unused on a shelf or in a filing cabinet for many years.

Mike
591. Quoting snotly:
is that our first blob?


No, we had one the beginning of May. This hasn't really reached full on blob status...dwarfed & shamed in convection by midwest landblob..



CMC wanted to make something of it 00Z run, but 12zCMC pushed it too far into FL to pull together. It really made it out over the Bahamas way more than that last run suggested. Had an interesting feel to it when it was here yesterday, racing low clouds too.

Overall looks like 30kts of shear where it is.. though looking at cloudsat we can say that's fairly shallow at this point & consult midlevel shear which is more favorable at 10-15kts.

Wall Cloud??

Off the coast of the Northern Beaches of Sydney.




@AlexChesser Alex Chesser
#Storms moving towards Coastal #Sydney. This photo taken from Avalon Headland in the last few minutes.
I think goes east just went south maybe a glitch

Skye... re 603

when I first read this I saw your link as:
Consult Midevil Shear...

(sounds like something Grothar would talk about)

: )
The way SSD just hasn't updated makes me wunder if we are into blackout season. Maybe I can find it.
Poor windsat has one note after another.. most recent..

*Topic: *Windsat data

*Date/Time**Issued:*May 21, 2013 2122 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*Windsat data ****

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*May 21, 2013 1800 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*May 21, 2013 2052 UTC****

*Length of Outage:*approximately 3 hours

*Details/Specifics of Change:*ESPC is not receiving Windsat
Data. Placed
call to Monterey (FNMOC) . They will investigate.
Keeper~ I don't see anything except GOES13 was coming out of Rapid scan at the time that happened. that ended at 03:15 which is the last frame showing.
610. JRRP
Two ships out there off the Bahamas. 25kt winds.
Just saw and read about the Moore, OK tornado the other day....dont even know what to say, its been awhile since I saw one that big and damage like that. Brings back old haunts from my own tornado run-in two years ago. Will certainly keep the recovery efforts and victims in my prayers!
The May forecast from the JMA SINTEX-F1 model is released. There is no significant change in the forecast as precipitation is expected to be above normal for much of the Atlantic basin, while precipitation in the equatorial Pacific is predicted to be below normal, showing a La Nina-ish pattern.

Jun-Aug:



Sep-Nov:

0z Surface Analysis:



The GFS continues to predict heavy rains in the E Caribbean.
Okay we can panic now...


*Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East*) *Data**outage*
*

*Date/Time**Issued:***May 22, 2013 0420 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted: ***GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products****


*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*May 22, 2013 0340 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*Unknown**

*Length of Outage:*TBD*

*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*Due to an anomaly which occurred approx.
0340z on G-13, East imaging stopped. GOES-15 will enter a full disk
scheduled at 0429z. Engineering is en-route to access the situation and
GOES-15 will run in full disk mode until further notice.*
*
Quoting Skyepony:
Two ships out there off the Bahamas. 25kt winds.


Eastern New Providence had an unprecedented rain event tonight lots of flooding some areas the water is over 6' deep, many homes flooded, estimate at least 10" of rain possibly a lot more as flooding seems worse than experienced in June 1997 when 19" fell in less than four hours. Will know for sure when I measure the rainfall at 8 a.m. tomorrow.
Quoting nigel20:
Reminds me to the system that spawned ts Patty.
Quoting Civicane49:
0z Surface Analysis:


Nothing new yet

Quoting CaribBoy:


The GFS continues to predict heavy rains in the E Caribbean.

Yep and still good amounts in the Western Caribbean

Quoting Skyepony:
Okay we can panic now...


*Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East*) *Data**outage*
*

*Date/Time**Issued:***May 22, 2013 0420 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted: ***GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products****


*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*May 22, 2013 0340 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*Unknown**

*Length of Outage:*TBD*

*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*Due to an anomaly which occurred approx.
0340z on G-13, East imaging stopped. GOES-15 will enter a full disk
scheduled at 0429z. Engineering is en-route to access the situation and
GOES-15 will run in full disk mode until further

Losing GOES 13 would not be good just as the season is starting ..
Wetter than average winter outlook

The Weather Bureau is predicting above average rain and warmer than usual temperatures for most of Australia for June to August.

The winter season outlook will be welcome in western Queensland and inland NSW, which have experienced prolonged dry.

But for western Victoria, South Australia and south-west Western Australia the outlook for rain is not so bright.

Dr Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction, says it's because of warmer conditions in the Indian Ocean off southern Sumatra.

"That's really driving a lot of moisture into the atmosphere that's feeding into these cloud bands that sweep across Australia at this time of year.

"While the odds are just saying above average rainfall, we are seeing a decent set up there in the Indian Ocean for getting above average rainfall."

© ABC 2013
I'm surrounded by showers right now. meant to get about 4 inches in the next 4 days.

this is what I am getting now for the atlantic

If this makes it down here it should be the last noteworthy weather here. Severe looks to have died down. I hope. Other than that the heat is on. Finally feeling like May.



Overcast

77°F

25°C

Humidity93%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer29.89 in
Dewpoint75°F (24°C)
Visibility7.00 mi
Heat Index78°F (26°C)
Wasn't GOES-13 the replacement for the one that failed last year? Or was 13 temporarily covered for by 14?
GOES13 was returned to service last year. It was out from mid Sept to mid Oct. GOES14 was brought out of storage to cover & prepare to replace. At some points in there GOES-WEST (GOES15) covered as best it could like now.
Answered my own question. GOES-13's imagery became extremely noisy last September, so they shut it down temporarily to diagnose the issue and used GOES-15 in full disk for a while, then moved GOES-14 out of "storage" to cover for GOES-13. I didn't know that they ever got GOES-13 working again.

Anyways, it sounds like the issues that plagued GOES-13 in September may have taken it down altogether now. If that's the case, they can just move GOES-14 into it's place, and we'll actually have a newer sat covering the atlantic, but no backup sat anymore.

Actually, GOES-12, although 12 years old, is still working, covering south america, and could be moved back to GOES-East service if both 13 and 14 failed.

I don't think there's any need to worry about being left blind in hurricane season with at least double redundancy up there.
re 616
" Engineering is en-route to access the situation..."

...after their sequestration furlough

: )
All that bad weather and rains will reach the NE, NY area....

2 Flu strains on Global observation....

May 18, 2013 22:56 ET
New SARS-Like Coronavirus Suspected at New York Hospital

Link


I'm not much for tornado movie collections or remakes, but I think you'll find this one is a different.

As sad as the current situation is, you have to admire the people of Moore, OK for their perseverance. They have a remarkable spirit in the face of such tragedy. It's like nothing I recall ever seeing following similar circumstances. I can see why they call it the "Heartland."

I have no doubt that they will overcome this disaster, and be back on their feet in no time; hopefully, with better bunkers.

If but two of these becomes a spokesperson for the planet, perhaps they can help wake U.S. all.


Ummmmm WHAT!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
217 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MTZ009-048-221100-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0005.130523T0000Z-130523T1800Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
217 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
RIDGE TOPS.

* VISIBILITY: VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
MILE AT TIMES.

* ELEVATIONS: FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THIS WILL BE A WET AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 2 INCHES COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS ON POWER LINES
AND TREES THAT HAVE LEAFED OUT.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...INCLUDING THE GLACIER PARK REGION.

* TO SEE A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HAZARD PLEASE VISIT.
WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=TFX

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Just saw and read about the Moore, OK tornado the other day....dont even know what to say, its been awhile since I saw one that big and damage like that. Brings back old haunts from my own tornado run-in two years ago. Will certainly keep the recovery efforts and victims in my prayers!


Which tornado was the "biggest" ? Maybe this one set a new record?
On radar imaginary the Moore tornado appeared 2,25 miles huge....
Many of the global models are starting to agree that the tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela will become the next East Pacific's tropical cyclone to develop in the far eastern Pacific by later this weekend through early next week. Though, the exact timing and strength of this potential storm remains uncertain.
Update says plan is to have Goes-13 fixed in 14 hours


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG1420634 .01.txt
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Rain is the word that will be prevalent in the coming days in the NE Caribbean islands. And it looks like it may be even more for next week so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
STREAM MOVES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET PASSING TO THE NORTH.
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH DRIFTS
EAST DURING THE WEEK AND IS JOINED ON THURSDAY BY ANOTHER HIGH
LEAVING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW TURNS
DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK THIS PATTERN KEEPS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING
THE NIGHT AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE STRIP OF COAST FROM RIO GRANDE TO VEGA BAJA. OTHER
RAIN ALSO FELL ACROSS SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS
IN CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY BUT LEFT AN
ARC OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME THAT EXTENDED OVER 600 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SHARP GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
APPROACH THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND BRING SOME RELIEF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE AREA TURNS WETTER THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WILL THE MAXIMUM RIVER LEVELS EACH DAY.
THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
COMING DAYS BUT IT CONTINUES TO WITHHOLD THE WETTEST WEATHER UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOISTURE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT IN PASSING SHRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TIL 22/14Z. SCT-BKN BETWEEN
FL020-FL120 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF PR.
MAINLY EAST WINDS 10-25 KT FROM SFC UP 4 KFT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AS WINDS INCREASE. THE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN
PASSAGES WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RAMPING UP
BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM AST AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW 22 KNOTS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 7 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE WET AND RAINS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOILS ALONG THE NORTH...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS NEAR
SATURATION...THE ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK COULD CREATE MORE SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IF THE GFS SOLUTIONS HOLD. THIS
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY FORECASTERS AND
REVIEWED BY OUR HYDROLOGIST WITH FURTHER ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED
AND COORDINATED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 87 77 / 50 30 40 30
STT 86 77 87 78 / 50 30 30 30
Morning all. I still have standing water in my yard, but not as much as I expected.

I'm not surprised to hear about the flooding in eastern New Providence - the rain rate at certain periods last night was phenomenal.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The Moore, Oklahoma tornado has been rated EF-5... the first such twister this century." -- From our wonderful weather agency, AccuWeather
So is this MISinformation or DISinformation...

Quoting Thrawst:


Was quite a show! Wish it didn't end :p
I'm just glad the power came back on....

642. MahFL
Quoting SLU:


The Trinidad radar was struck by lightning around April 2011 and has been down since then. Last thing I heard was that the TT Met Office was trying to order the damaged parts for the radar from overseas.


They might want to order new parts, not damged parts....I best call them !
Rain is down again... just as I was trying to get out of the door...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think goes east just went south maybe a glitch



LMAO
Good Morning..not sure if this has been posted but I saw on GMA this morning that the Moore tornado went from a F0 tornado to F4 tornado in just 10 minutes..
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..not sure if this has been posted but I saw on GMA this morning that the Moore tornado went from a F0 tornado to F4 tornado in just 10 minutes..


i think its heading to F5.
Moore tornado before impact.

Where's my breakfast and coffee?

Scott, hurry up and get to work so I can see how much rain Florida is going to get next week!
Quoting Torito:


i think its heading to F5.


Yeah it got up to an F5 but the fact that it went to an F4 in that short span of time shows the power of that tornado..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Where's my breakfast and coffee?

Scott, hurry up and get to work so I can see how much rain Florida is going to get next week!


the cook quit..didnt you hear?

(Largo)
Quoting ncstorm:


the cook quit..didnt you hear?

(Largo)


That's awful. But I did hear the pay wasn't that good.
Quoting Skyepony:
Okay we can panic now...


*Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East*) *Data**outage*
*

*Date/Time**Issued:***May 22, 2013 0420 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted: ***GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products****


*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*May 22, 2013 0340 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*Unknown**

*Length of Outage:*TBD*

*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*Due to an anomaly which occurred approx.
0340z on G-13, East imaging stopped. GOES-15 will enter a full disk
scheduled at 0429z. Engineering is en-route to access the situation and
GOES-15 will run in full disk mode until further notice.*
*


Don't panic - Douglas Adam's Towel Day approaches this coming Saturday

Link
Job Opening

Experienced Internet Breakfast Cook

Must be able to multitask with posting images of radar images and breakfast items

Must be a people person and greet all morning bloggers

Must be able to greet Aussie and wish him goodbye in his timezone

Must be able to take internet orders from bloggers and provide breakfast within seconds

Previous applicants need not apply..

655. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


the cook quit..didnt you hear?

(Largo)


I miss him Around !!Hopefullly his anti virus wouldn't freak the next time he looks in !!


BTW Good Morning Folks!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Where's my breakfast and coffee?

Scott, hurry up and get to work so I can see how much rain Florida is going to get next week!


GFS Precip accum.

It seems as if the GFS is insistant on bringing a lot of tropical moisture up into FL by the first week of June.

What happened 2 Largo?
658. VR46L
.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
646 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013

PRC021-031-033-061-087-127-137-221245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0098.130522T1046Z-130522T1245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-
LOIZA PR-
646 AM AST WED MAY 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA BAJA...CAROLINA...CATANO AND
LOIZA

* UNTIL 845 AM AST

* AT 640 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS HAS CREATED URBAN FLOODING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6603 1847 6599 1845 6593 1846 6590
1844 6588 1840 6591 1839 6593 1840 6621
1848 6621 1848 6617 1846 6617 1848 6615
1848 6608

$$

DS
GFS Precip accum wow!
Another active day across C & S FL.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...
AND THE AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES FIRST FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES...THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVING STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD. THE
NEARBY PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL.
662. VR46L
Forget that last comment I found one :) But It aint Goes 13

Quoting BahaHurican:
What happened 2 Largo?


He got a new anti virus software and it said a virus was on this site to which he bids us adieu..
Quoting ncstorm:


He got a new anti virus software and it said a virus was on this site to which he bids us adieu..


It's from all of these ads on this site. It seems as if Doc finally took off all these rounchy ads that were on here.
Two years ago today...

The Hackleburg EF5 in alabama must have been terrible then...a 1.25 mile wide ef5 that went 132 miles and killed 72 people without ever hitting a major city....

Imagine if it had hit somewhere even with 10000 residents.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Two years ago today...



That looks bigger than the Moore EF-5 tornado.
Seems Texas didn't come away unscathed by the storms last night sadly.


Lufkin I-HOP employee struck, killed by lightning in parking lot
By Kerri Compton

LUFKIN, TX (KTRE) -

A Lufkin woman was struck and killed by lightning during last night's storms.

Around 10:30 p.m., a 32-year-old I-HOP employee was standing in the parking lot holding an umbrella when lightning struck her, entering into her upper torso and exiting through her lower legs. There were a number of witnesses who saw the strike and called for help.

Lufkin police say she was transported to Woodlands Heights Medical Center in Lufkin where she later died.

The victim's name has not been released.

Quoting Skyepony:
Okay we can panic now...


*Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East*) *Data**outage*
*

*Date/Time**Issued:***May 22, 2013 0420 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted: ***GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products****


*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*May 22, 2013 0340 UTC**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*Unknown**

*Length of Outage:*TBD*

*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*Due to an anomaly which occurred approx.
0340z on G-13, East imaging stopped. GOES-15 will enter a full disk
scheduled at 0429z. Engineering is en-route to access the situation and
GOES-15 will run in full disk mode until further notice.*
*



SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0600Z WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATE FROM NESDIS..

GOES-E WENT INTO A `PROTECT` TYPE MODE.. AND WHILE SUPPORT IS
INVESTIGATING THEY WANTED TO PASS ALONG THAT GOES-E WILL STILL
NOT BE BROUGHT BACK INTO SERVICE ANY EARLIER THAN 12HRS FROM NOW
(APPROX. NO EARLIER THAN 1800Z) PER NESDIS. WHEN THEY INVESTIGATE
THE SATL ISSUES MORE CLOSELY THEY WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE
TUNE THE RETURN TO SERVICE TIME FOR GOES-E.

GOES-W WILL CONTINUE IN FULL DISK MODE TO COVER AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE AS LONG AS POSSIBLE.

MORE AFTER 12Z OR WHEN A NEW UPDATE BECOMES AVAILABLE..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That looks bigger than the Moore EF-5 tornado.

It wasn't as wide, but the Joplin tornado had stronger winds. Peak intensity is estimated at 225-250 mph against Moore's 210 mph.
Quoting ncstorm:
Job Opening

Experienced Internet Breakfast Cook

Must be able to multitask with posting images of radar images and breakfast items

Must be a people person and greet all morning bloggers

Must be able to greet Aussie and wish him goodbye in his timezone

Must be able to take internet orders from bloggers and provide breakfast within seconds

Previous applicants need not apply..





Too Funny!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Seems Texas didn't come away unscathed by the storms last night sadly.


Lufkin I-HOP employee struck, killed by lightning in parking lot
By Kerri Compton

LUFKIN, TX (KTRE) -

A Lufkin woman was struck and killed by lightning during last night's storms.

Around 10:30 p.m., a 32-year-old I-HOP employee was standing in the parking lot holding an umbrella when lightning struck her, entering into her upper torso and exiting through her lower legs. There were a number of witnesses who saw the strike and called for help.

Lufkin police say she was transported to Woodlands Heights Medical Center in Lufkin where she later died.

The victim's name has not been released.



Common sense 101 never stand outside in a lightning storm with an umbrella.
VR46L, Look at this storm near Tunisia.

NOUS71 KNES 221158
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT OUTAGE/ANOMALY: GOES-13 (GOES-EAST) DATA OUTAGE:

****UPDATE#4: ****RECOVERY EFFORTS FORGOES-13 CONTINUE AND THE
SPACECRAFT HEALTH AND SAFETY ARE NOMINAL. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED
AND
THE FIRST IMAGES WILL BE AVAILABLE @ 0500 UTC ON THURS. MAY 23RD, 2013.

**UPDATE#3: **INITIAL****GOES-13 RECOVERY PROCEDURE WAS UNSUCCESSFUL.
RETURN TO SERVICE TIME LINE BEING REEVALUATED.**
*
UPDATE#2: *GOES-13 ANOMALY STATUS HAS NOT CHANGED, THE ENGINEER TEAM IS
COMMANDING THE SATELLITE AFTER CONSULTING THE SUPPORT TEAM. COMMANDING
WILL TAKE APPROX. 5 HOURS AND IF SUCCESSFUL SHOULD RETURN TO SERVICE
SHORTLY AFTER THAT.*

UPDATE#1: *GOES-13 ANOMALY CONTINUES, THE ENGINEERS ARE ON
SITE. BARRING
FURTHER ANOMALIES THE EXPECTED RETURN TO SERVICES IS APPROX. 14 HOURS
FROM THIS UPDATE.*

TOPIC: *GOES-13 (GOES-EAST*) *DATA**OUTAGE*
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
GFS Precip accum wow!
Impressive...but I'd take it with a grain of salt. A handful of runs last year had Naples receiving between 12" and 18" over the coming week, and we ended up with about 0.25". IOW, it only overestimated reality by a factor of 50 or 60... ;-)
My best friend from high school was killed by lightning while standing underneath a pavilion. He was fishing and lightning hit the fishing pole and struck him in the chest even though he was under a pavilion.
Eastern New Providence Island (Nassau, Bahamas) has recorded 15.29" of rain for the 24 hour period ending at 8 a.M. this morning.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Impressive...but I'd take it with a grain of salt. A handful of runs last year had Naples receiving between 12" and 18" over the coming week, and we ended up with about 0.25". IOW, it only overestimated reality by a factor of 50 or 60... ;-)


I agree. However it appears that the possibility of tropical formation seems ligit come the 1st of June as the MJO comes around.

Quoting NasBahMan:
Eastern New Providence Island (Nassau, Bahamas) has recorded 15.29" of rain for the 24 hour period ending at 8 a.M. this morning.


Wow! Thanks for that info.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
My best friend from high school was killed by lightning while standing underneath a pavilion. He was fishing and lightning hit the fishing pole and struck him in the chest even though he was under a pavilion.


Oh that is terrible. Lightning's some nasty stuff.
Good Morning again (think the Blog ate my first post). Nice line of T-storms headed into the Big Easy with potential flash flooding but not looking severe at the moment. Things will probably change with daytime heating as the front pushes through Alabama, Georgia and Florida later today.....Not much of a cooling rain shield out front at the moment.
Hope they get GOES 13 fixed soon, radar coverage for The Bahamas isn't the best.
683. VR46L
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
VR46L, Look at this storm near Tunisia.



Cool Hadnt Noticed that !!! Have something to look through my links for now!!
JNCali signing off.... JNTenne will be henceforth.. been a fun ride
Quoting JNCali:
JNCali signing off.... JNTenne will be henceforth.. been a fun ride
finally! I thought he'd never LEAVE! okay enough about me.... hope everyone has a safe day out there.. Middle TN has some percip heading in this morning and then unsettled for the rest of the day. probably turnout to be a pleasant warm slightly humid (it is the South afterall) day..
686. VR46L
Quoting JNTenne:
finally! I thought he'd never LEAVE! okay enough about me.... hope everyone has a safe day out there.. Middle TN has some percip heading in this morning and then unsettled for the rest of the day. probably turnout to be a pleasant warm slightly humid (it is the South afterall) day..


LMAO !!!


Too Funny !!!
Inbound boomers

Quoting VR46L:


Cool Hadnt Noticed that !!! Have something to look through my links for now!!




DISCUSSION from estofex.org

... Southern to Central Italy ...

A perhaps unseasonably well developed low pressure system is forecast to affect the area, with surface pressure plunging down to 990 hPa as the low approaches southern Italy by the evening hours. Deepening is forecast thanks to the strong PVA and WAA ahead of the approaching sharp short-wave trough, that should cross Italy in the evening to night hours. At its forward flank, 20 m/s southwesterly flow around 500 hPa is forecast over the area. With southerly to easterly low level flow ahead of the surface low, very favourable vertical wind shear profiles are forecast in the afternoon hours. DLS should reach 20-25 m/s while veering with height in the lower levels should lead to moderate SREH values (locally above 250 m2/s2). With moderate CAPE values around 1000 J/kg thanks to the steep mid-level lapse rates, environment should be conducive to supercells and well organised multicells capable of (very) large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornadoes might occur as well with supercells, especially later on, as low level shear increases and LCLs decrease. Storm coverage could be somehow limited at this afternoon stage due to the enhanced CIN values.

Towards the evening, strong low level convergence and moist low level jet towards the area will likely contribute to the rapid development of a large MCS, capable of producing large swath of very heavy precipitation. A solid Level 2 seems to be warranted for this area.


Just a short hello, I still have to be busy for a bunch of hours on my job ...
On May 20, 2013, NASA and NOAA satellites observed the system that generated severe weather in the south central United States and spawned the Moore, Okla., tornado. Before, during and after the tornado, satellites provided imagery and data to forecasters. NOAA's GOES-13 satellite provided forecasters with images of the storm system every 15 minutes.



On May 20, 2013, a supercell thunderstorm in central Oklahoma spawned a destructive tornado that passed just south of Oklahoma City.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite acquired this image of the storm at 2:40 p.m. local time (19:40 UTC). The red line depicts the tornado's track. The twister touched down west of Newcastle at 2:56 p.m. and moved northeast toward Moore, where it caused dozens of deaths and widespread destruction. The tornado had dissipated by 3:36 p.m., after traveling approximately 20 miles (32 kilometers).

Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA Goddard; caption by Adam Voiland
Precipitate Water POES-AMSU. Just updated...

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
My best friend from high school was killed by lightning while standing underneath a pavilion. He was fishing and lightning hit the fishing pole and struck him in the chest even though he was under a pavilion.


Sounds like your friend made some bad decisions.

Fishing while there is lightning is a big no-no.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I agree. However it appears that the possibility of tropical formation seems ligit come the 1st of June as the MJO comes around.



Though the rainy season has started here in Florida, thus far it has for the most part missed my house! Would welcome several inches of rain.


Something very beautiful to look at:

The 2013 Earth & Sky Photo Contest Winners

Selected from submissions by photographers in about 45 countries, the winners of 2013 Earth and Sky Photo Contest display the beauties of night sky and its battle with light pollution.
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Sounds like your friend made some bad decisions.

Fishing while there is lightning is a big no-no.


Yeah but there was no lightning at the time. Bolt came from a distant thunderstorm. Have you ever heard the bolt out of the blue? That is what happened a bolt came out from a thunderstorm that was about 10 miles away
Be Careful and stay away from helicopters!

According to rough estimates of the size of the damaged area made by helicopters operated by news9.com and kfor.com...

The Daily show had a very heart warming clip for the moment of zen at the end, of a woman following the Moore Tornado.
Quoting Patrap:


Storms weakened fast as they approached Nola.
Hurricane Preparation 2013





It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.
That POES I posted a few back just updated..WOW there in the Bahamas...
Do you guys know anything about this?
Jan Freedman
11 h
OK geologists- Green obsidian, found along Croatian Coast. Anyone seen this before and which site:
Link
Depth of 26c isotherm




Flooding on Paradise Island, Nassau, The Bahamas.

This bridge is an underwater bridge that gets you to the main resort of Atlantis.

Were warming up Pat.

Quoting Thrawst:
Flooding on Paradise Island, Nassau, The Bahamas.

This bridge is an underwater bridge that gets you to the main resort of Atlantis.



I know exactly where that is. Been there many times over the years.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
GFS Precip accum wow!


Convective feedback.
Nuclear Event in USA on Wednesday, 22 May, 2013 at 03:13 (03:13 AM) UTC.
Description
One of two reactors at the Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant in southern Maryland was shut down again Tuesday, the second unplanned outage in the past two weeks. Plant operators powered down Unit 2 manually around 5:30 a.m. after a pump that feeds water to a steam generator shut down because of high vibrations, according to Neil Sheehan, spokesman for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The cause of the pump's vibrations appears to be a failed mechanical coupling between the pump's motor and the pump, he said. Sheehan and Kory Raftery, spokesman for Constellation Energy Nuclear Group, said the manual shutdown went smoothly and posed no safety risks for plant workers or the public. Raftery said the reactor was in "stable condition." Both spokesmen said Tuesday's shutdown appears unrelated to the unplanned "scram" of the same reactor on May 8. In the earlier case, according to accounts from Constellation and the NRC, an electrical malfunction caused some valves to close that feed steam to the turbine. The turbine then shut down, prompting the reactor itself to shut down automatically to prevent the buildup of steam pressure in the cooling system. The reactor was out of service for five days, according to Raftery, while the valves were being worked on and tested. Plant personnel also installed electrical monitors to check for further problems, he said. Unit 2 will remain shut down until an investigation of the latest malfunction is completed, repairs are made and the system is fully tested, the Constellation spokesman said. Unit 1, the other reactor at the plant in Lusby, is operating at 100 percent power.
Environment Pollution in Australia on Wednesday, 22 May, 2013 at 10:49 (10:49 AM) UTC.
Description
Santos has come under fire from environmentalist groups after it confirmed the leakage of 240,000 litres of oil over five days near the Queensland-South Australian border. Santos said a leak in their Jackson oil fields had been plugged on Monday by a specialist team flown in from the U.S.A. The well, in the company's Zeus field, is believed to have started leaking either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning last week. While it was described as a "limited leak" the company said it was generating about 300 barrels a day. A barrel is equivalent to 158 litres. A Santos spokesman said that now the well had been contained it would be able to access the site and assess the environmental damage.


This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOUS71 KNES 221158
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT OUTAGE/ANOMALY: GOES-13 (GOES-EAST) DATA OUTAGE:

****UPDATE#4: ****RECOVERY EFFORTS FORGOES-13 CONTINUE AND THE
SPACECRAFT HEALTH AND SAFETY ARE NOMINAL. GOES-14 IS BEING ACTIVATED
AND
THE FIRST IMAGES WILL BE AVAILABLE @ 0500 UTC ON THURS. MAY 23RD, 2013.



Um, wow. That's not terribly encouraging.

GOES-15 is the most recently launched of the series, and is currently designed GOES-West. Its full-disk mode provides some coverage, but not what you'd want as hurricane season heats up. GOES-12 is still up there, but it was launched in 2001 as part of the previous GOES series, with an expected operational lifespan of just 5 years. It's still operational, and could in theory be redeployed to become GOES-East again, but it was replaced by GOES-13 in the first place because of persistent problems with leaking thrusters. All of its B-side thrusters are listed as inactive, and it has electronics problems with a number of its instruments, including the imager.

That means that, as of this morning, we've got GOES-15 in the Pacific and GOES-14 in the Atlantic as our only fully operational GOES satellites. That shouldn't be a problem. They're both in fine working condition.

Only, here's the catch. The next GOES satellite isn't scheduled for launch until 2015 - and those launch dates have a long-standing pattern of unexpected delays. We've got two fully functional satellites, and a pair of increasingly balky backups. We're probably fine this year. Maybe we're fine next year, too. But I'd really love to see the launch of GOES-16 accelerated. It'd be really lousy to go through a hurricane season with just one GOES satellite up there scanning in full-disk mode.

Moore tornado is now on RSOE.
Tornado in USA on Tuesday, 21 May, 2013 at 02:42 (02:42 AM) UTC.

Base data
EDIS Number: TO-20130521-39309-USA
Event type: Tornado
Date/Time: Tuesday, 21 May, 2013 at 02:42 (02:42 AM) UTC
Last update: ---
Cause of event:
Damage level: Extreme
Geographic information
Continent: North-America
Country: USA
County / State: State of Oklahoma
Area:
City: Moore
Coordinate: N 35° 12.008, W 97° 26.450
Number of affected people / Humanities loss
Foreign people: Affected is unknown.
Dead person(s): 24
Injured person(s): 200
Missing person(s): ---
Evacuated person(s): 0
Affected person(s): ---
Infected person(s): 0



From the RSOE:

A giant tornado, a mile wide or more, killed at least 51 people as it tore across parts of Oklahoma City and its suburbs Monday afternoon, flattening homes, flinging cars through the air and crushing at least two schools packed with children. As the injured began flooding into hospitals, the authorities said many people remained trapped, even as rescue workers were struggling to make their way through debris-clogged streets to the devastated suburb of Moore, where much of the damage occurred. Amy Elliott, the spokeswoman for the Oklahoma City medical examiner, said at least 51 people had died, and officials said that toll was likely to climb. Local hospitals reported at least 145 people injured, 70 of them children. Plaza Towers Elementary School in Moore was reduced to a pile of twisted metal and toppled walls, and on Monday evening rescue workers were still struggling to tear through rubble amid reports that dozens of students were trapped. At Briarwood Elementary School in Oklahoma City, on the border with Moore, cars were thrown through the facade and the roof was torn off.

"Numerous neighborhoods were completely leveled," Sgt. Gary Knight of the Oklahoma City Police Department said by telephone. "Neighborhoods just wiped clean." He said debris and damage to roadways, along with heavy traffic, were hindering emergency responders as they raced to the affected areas. A spokeswoman for the mayor's office in Moore said emergency workers were struggling to assess the damage. "Please send us your prayers," she said. Brooke Cayot, a spokeswoman for Integris Southwest Medical Center in Oklahoma City, said 58 patients had come in by about 9 p.m. Another 85 were being treated at Oklahoma University Medical Center in Oklahoma City. "They've been coming in minute by minute," Ms. Cayot said.

Keli Pirtle, a spokeswoman for the National Weather Service in Norman, Okla., said the tornado touched down at 2:56 p.m., 16 minutes after the first warning went out, and traveled for 20 miles. It was on the ground for 40 minutes, she said. It struck the town of Newcastle and traveled about 10 miles to Moore, a populous suburb of Oklahoma City. Ms. Pirtle said preliminary data suggested that it was a Category 4 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita scale, which measures tornado strength on a scale of 0 to 5. A definitive assessment will not be available until Tuesday, she said. Moore was the scene of another huge tornado, in May 1999, in which winds reached record speeds of 302 m.p.h. Television on Monday showed destruction spread over a vast area, with blocks upon blocks of homes and businesses destroyed. Residents, some partly clothed and apparently caught by surprise, were shown picking through rubble. Several structures were on fire, and cars had been tossed around, flipped over and stacked on top of each other.

Kelcy Trowbridge, her husband and their three young children piled into their neighbor's cellar just outside of Moore and huddled together for about five minutes, wrapped under a blanket as the tornado screamed above them, debris smashing against the cellar door. They emerged to find their home flattened and the family car resting upside down a few houses away. Ms. Trowbridge's husband rushed toward what was left of their home and began sifting through the debris, then stopped, and told her to call the police. He had found the body of a little girl, about 2 or 3 years old, Ms. Trowbridge said. "He knew she was already gone," Ms. Trowbridge said. "When the police got there, he just bawled." The storm system continued to churn through the region on Monday afternoon, and forecasters warned that new tornadoes could form.

An earlier storm system also spawned several tornadoes across Oklahoma on Sunday. Several deaths were reported. Russell Schneider, the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said the risk of tornadoes throughout the region remained high going into Tuesday. Some parts of Moore emerged seeming untouched by the tornado. Bea Carruth, who lives about 20 blocks from where the storm struck, said her home and others in her neighborhood appeared to be fine. Ms. Carruth had ridden out the tornado as she usually does, at her son's house nearby, the hail pounding away on the cellar where they had taken shelter. Tornadoes have long been a part of life in Moore, she said, and a few times a year, in a well-worn ritual, she goes into her son's cellar when the sirens go off. In 1999, the last time a storm this size struck, Ms. Carruth again was lucky and the home she lived in then was spared. She ended up buying an empty plot of land where a house destroyed by that tornado once stood. Her house now sits on that plot.

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Ships are abandoning our AOI in the Bahamas. No one is much close other than on the north edge & feeling 20kts..
Quoting ncstorm:


the cook quit..didnt you hear?

(Largo)
Oh how soon we forget! Largo made a good pot of coffee but aislinnpaps made the breakfasts. I thnk she said she was taking the summer off, so we still need your ad. Maybe we could start with finding someone to make the coffee?
Scientists concluded the storm was a rare and extraordinarily powerful type of twister known as an EF5, ranking it at the top of the scale used to measure tornado strength. Those twisters are capable of lifting reinforced buildings off the ground, hurling cars like missiles and stripping trees completely free of bark. Residents of Moore began returning to their homes a day after the tornado smashed some neighborhoods into jagged wood scraps and gnarled pieces of metal. In place of their houses, many families found only empty lots. After nearly 24 hours of searching, the fire chief said he was confident there were no more bodies or survivors in the rubble. Authorities were so focused on the search effort that they had yet to establish the full scope of damage along the storm's long, ruinous path. They did not know how many homes were gone or how many families had been displaced. Emergency crews had trouble navigating devastated neighborhoods because there were no street signs left. Some rescuers used smartphones or GPS devices to guide them through areas with no recognizable landmarks. The death toll was revised downward from 51 after the state medical examiner said some victims may have been counted twice in the confusion. More than 200 people were treated at area hospitals. By Tuesday afternoon, every damaged home had been searched at least once, Bird said. His goal was to conduct three searches of each building just to be certain there were no more bodies or survivors. The fire chief was hopeful that could be completed before nightfall, but the work was being hampered by heavy rain. Crews also continued a brick-by-brick search of the rubble of a school that was blown apart with many children inside. No additional survivors or bodies have been found since Monday night, Bird said. At least 24 people were killed in the twister, including at least eight children. One of the most hard-hit buildings was Plaza Towers Elementary School in Moore, where police spokesman Jeremy Lewis said seven children died under a collapsed wall. Another child was killed at Briarwood Elementary School in Oklahoma City.
Quoting FLwolverine:
Oh how soon we forget! Largo made a good pot of coffee but aislinnpaps made the breakfasts. I thnk she said she was taking the summer off, so we still need your ad. Maybe we could start with finding someone to make the coffee?


Coffee.
Any word or new model output for our potential system developing in the NW Caribbean in early June?
May 14, 2013: AVHRR (NOAA-16) image showing an incredible eddy located in the Loop Current.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but there was no lightning at the time. Bolt came from a distant thunderstorm. Have you ever heard the bolt out of the blue? That is what happened a bolt came out from a thunderstorm that was about 10 miles away


I see. Just don't let it ruin lightning for ya.
Quoting Luisport:
Do you guys know anything about this?
Jan Freedman
11 h
OK geologists- Green obsidian, found along Croatian Coast. Anyone seen this before and which site:
Link
Anyone please?
Quoting Luisport:
Anyone please?


Cant find anything on it.
GLP isnt a source to er, use here ever

GLP
well I hope goes 13 gets up and running otherwise its going to suck big time for sats
Louis,
Google it! Lots of gem stone sites have green obsidian.
Volcanic glass can have all kinds of impurities in it. It is usually more translucent than that, from what I have seen and what I have found on the net, but I'm not sure what your question is?
Quoting Torito:


That is very old as GOES-13 is out.


3 hrs old
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is very old as GOES-13 is out.


they got rid of it??
Not a bad day for Southern Illinois. Not a bad day at all.

click for link
Quoting FLwolverine:
Oh how soon we forget! Largo made a good pot of coffee but aislinnpaps made the breakfasts. I thnk she said she was taking the summer off, so we still need your ad. Maybe we could start with finding someone to make the coffee?

LOL. That's first and foremost. The coffee! Whatever you do, don't leave me in charge of breakfast. I'm warning you now.

And thank you, Largo for coffee and Wolverine for coordinating! :-)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Google it! Lots of gem stone sites.
Volcanic glass can have all kinds of impurities in it. It is usually more translucent than that, from what I have seen and what I have found on the net, but I'm not sure what your question is?
What i understand is that this is apearing on croatian coast...
Luisport

It looks like Olivine with some other metal deposit in it
Did Sat imagery pick up the million gallon bitumen spill on land that happened simultaneously with the Gulf Drill Spill?
Quoting Skyepony:
Precipitate Water POES-AMSU. Just updated...



I don't really buy into those figures, we had +12" of rain in less than 3 hours last night in Eastern Nassau.
GOES-13 operational...


On May 20, 2013, NASA and NOAA satellites observed the system that generated severe weather in the south central United States and spawned the Moore, Okla., tornado. Before, during and after the tornado, satellites provided imagery and data to forecasters. NOAA's GOES-13 satellite provided forecasters with images of the storm system every 15 minutes.


nasa.gov
Quoting CloudGatherer:


Um, wow. That's not terribly encouraging.

GOES-15 is the most recently launched of the series, and is currently designed GOES-West. Its full-disk mode provides some coverage, but not what you'd want as hurricane season heats up. GOES-12 is still up there, but it was launched in 2001 as part of the previous GOES series, with an expected operational lifespan of just 5 years. It's still operational, and could in theory be redeployed to become GOES-East again, but it was replaced by GOES-13 in the first place because of persistent problems with leaking thrusters. All of its B-side thrusters are listed as inactive, and it has electronics problems with a number of its instruments, including the imager.

That means that, as of this morning, we've got GOES-15 in the Pacific and GOES-14 in the Atlantic as our only fully operational GOES satellites. That shouldn't be a problem. They're both in fine working condition.

Only, here's the catch. The next GOES satellite isn't scheduled for launch until 2015 - and those launch dates have a long-standing pattern of unexpected delays. We've got two fully functional satellites, and a pair of increasingly balky backups. We're probably fine this year. Maybe we're fine next year, too. But I'd really love to see the launch of GOES-16 accelerated. It'd be really lousy to go through a hurricane season with just one GOES satellite up there scanning in full-disk mode.


Is GOES-16 even ready to launch yet ??
The last four or five consecutive runs of the GFS is really painting the picture of the jet running far to the north. Northern regions will be abnormally wet, and southern regions will be drier than average.

CPC with the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks concur.

Quoting dirtybird:
Luisport

It looks like Olivine with some other metal deposit in it
No it is really green obsisian
Quoting whitewabit:


Is GOES-16 even ready to launch yet ??
don't think so even if it was it would take a couple of weeks to get it into position and tuned up and set to sent images

lets hope its not that bad and 13 can be returned to service
Quoting whitewabit:


Is GOES-16 even ready to launch yet ??


No

First GOES-R instrument ready to be installed onto spacecraft
Quoting Luisport:
Anyone please?


Send your question to the comment section of volcanocafé. Those guys know a lot about volcanic rocks and stones (some are experts), and they like to solve riddles, lol.

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/
December 7, 2012
Needed: Better Eyes in the Sky on Earth
By Jonathan Marshall



By Jonathan Marshall

Last weekend’s big storm here in Northern and Central California could have produced many more injuries, blackouts, floods and other damage had residents and emergency providers, including PG&E, not had plenty of warning from the National Weather Service.

But some of the most powerful tools that today’s meteorologists depend on — Earth-orbiting satellites — are at risk, owing to planning delays, dramatically rising costs, and competition for resources from other programs.


As captured in a satellite image by NASA, Hurricane Sandy revealed itself as a powerful storm over most of the East Coast.

In a report issued last May, the American Meteorological Society warned that the number of Earth-observing missions planned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) might plummet from a recent peak of about 25 to only six by 2020. That could partially blind the country as we accelerate headlong into a new climate era characterized by ever crazier and costlier weather extremes.

Imagine if forecasters couldn’t draw on detailed satellite images showing the progress and changing intensity of the next Sandy-sized superstorm. But there’s a lot more at stake than weather prediction.

“Earth observations, science, and services (Earth OSS) inform and guide the activities of virtually all economic sectors and innumerable institutions underlying modern civilization,” the report declared. “[They] comprise a national asset that, if lost or degraded, will not meet future societal needs that span the whole of the national agenda.”

Importance of satellites in polar orbit

One particularly important program, the Joint Polar Satellite System, has been plagued by cost overruns and delays that will likely result in reduced capabilities and coverage gaps if older satellites quit working on schedule. Without a functioning satellite in polar orbit, the National Weather Service has said, it would have underestimated the “Snowmageddon” blizzard that blanketed the Midwest and East Coast in February 2010 by 50 percent.

So it’s cheering that latest and greatest product of the joint NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program just passed its Mission Critical Design Review, readying it for construction and launch by late 2015.

Like its predecessors, the GOES-R will hover 22,300 miles above the Earth, looking down on North America with keen eyes that even a hawk can’t match. But this latest model represents “a giant leap forward in the technology,” according to NASA.

Its Earth imager “will be a huge advance over the current system, providing three times more differentiated spectral information, four times better spatial resolution, and more than five times faster coverage of the same area.” (To see some of its imaging capabilities, check out this University of Wisconsin blog.)

The satellite also will introduce a host of new imaging services for forecasting severe weather (including hurricanes and tornadoes), as well as monitoring fires and smoke, aerosol pollution (which has a major impact on human health), volcanic ash (which can cripple aircraft), and dangerous solar flares, among other capabilities.

More precise data would benefit PG&E customers

Mike Voss, PG&E’s senior meteorologist, says he’s excited by the prospect of getting more precise data from GOES-R over his satellite downlink from NOAA in San Ramon.

“Remote sensing of what’s going on at different depths in the atmosphere is tremendously important to us on the West Coast because we otherwise have very sparse weather data (from out over the Pacific),” he said. “Our forecasts rely on getting a good idea of what the atmosphere is doing right now, and then running a simulation. If you don’t know what’s going on now, you can’t predict the future.”

Voss and his colleagues at PG&E use detailed forecasts of wind, rain, snow, and other factors to predict the probable timing, location, and number of electrical outages during storms, so the utility’s responders can get the right resources to the right places at the right time to make repairs quickly and restore service to customers.

By the same token, Voss said, knowing when a storm will come in weaker than expected is valuable too, helping the utility adjust plans so it saves money while continuing to serve customers well.

PG&E customers also benefit from improved management of the utility’s clean hydroelectric facilities made possible by better forecasts. “We provide information on temperature, precipitation, and other variables to our hydro management group for their flow forecast model,” Voss said, “so operators can manage the water system for safety and economy. They are depending on us to come through with accurate forecasts.”

Email Jonathan Marshall at jonathan.marshall@pge.com.
here is full disk up till 927 next update in 3 hrs

maybe send someone from the ISS to tap it with a hammer anyone up there now

J/K
One to Bookmark


http://www.oso.noaa.gov/goesstatus/



Active Spacecraft and Operational Status
Spacecraft
Operational Status

GOES 8 RED

Decommissioned RED
GOES 9

Decommissioned RED
GOES 10

Decommissioned RED
GOES 11

Decommissioned RED
GOES 12

South America GREEN
GOES 13


Operational East GREEN
GOES 14

On-Orbit Storage GREEN
GOES 15

Operational West GREEN
750. etxwx
Here in this part of East Texas we received a half inch of rain from the storms last night. There was a fair amount of lightning but nothing too severe - it sounded like most of it was north of us. So sorry to hear about the lightning fatality in Lufkin.

Temps this week via KFDM - their main weatherman, Greg Bostwick says he really doesn't start using the word "hot" until the temps are above 90F, so we are still cool here:


While aislinn is away, here are some breakfast munchies for ya'll...wild blackberry muffins, wild blackberry pancakes with wild blackberry syrup with wild blackberry garnish. (Can you tell what I've been picking this past week?)
:-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is full disk up till 927 next update in 3 hrs



Also have GOES South America full disk images:






Link
GOES 13 Spacecraft Status Summary







Spacecraft Data




Spacecraft Letter:
N Spacecraft Location: 75 West
AOCS Mode:
Normal Upright
Launch Date:
05/24/2006 Operational Date: 04/14/2010
Operational Status:
Operational East
Notes:
GOES-13 resumed GOES-East services at 1445z on October 18, 2012.


Subsystem Status:




Subsystem
Description
Status
IMAGER Imager GREEN
SEM Space Environment Monitor YELLOW
SOUNDER Sounder GREEN
SXI Solar X-Ray Imager YELLOW
ACS Attitude Control System GREEN
COMM Communication Subsystem GREEN
INR Image Navigation and Registration GREEN
POWER Electrical Power Subsystem GREEN
PROP Propulsion GREEN
TANDC Telemetry & Command GREEN
THERMAL Thermal Control Subsystem GREEN

368
WGUS54 KLIX 221338
FFWLIX
LAC007-093-221530-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0025.130522T1338Z-130522T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAPOLEONVILLE...
ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 833 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NAPOLEONVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE AND CONVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
ALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING
STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP
TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN NEW
ORLEANS.
Sure are getting a lot of NOLA commercials going on over here in my area, must be time to go back there.
Good Morning, Patrap...

Stay safe pal.
Boomer's r here dak.

And moving fast too.
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Since most of you missed breakfast, I thought we would have a little Bayou Brunch. It is more civilized anyway. Now don't make little pigs of yourselves. I know how you can be.

Quoting Grothar:
Since most of you missed breakfast, I thought we would have a little Bayou Brunch. It is more civilized anyway. Now don't make little pigs of yourselves. I know how you can be.



Yum! Thanks Gro
After looking at that spread.

You can make me breakfast anytime Grothar..
They had some big boomers just north of us last night and more today. Very heavy rain in upstate NY.

Rain totals are starting to add up here.

Down here too Grothar. Early morning was fun.

And it looks like the sun had another Mass Ejection too.
..er, the Hollandaise sauce is a lil tight Gro

Updated 05/22/2013 @ 10:30 UTC

Solar Update

Good morning. Solar activity continues at low levels. Most of the minor C-Class activity within the past 24 hours has been detected around Sunspot 1756 located in the southeast quadrant. Previously active Sunspot 1748 continues to decay and is no longer a threat for strong solar flares. All other regions remain fairly stable at this time. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in the latest Lasco C2 imagery and looks to be the result of a prominence eruption off the northwest limb. So far it does not look to be Earth directed, however I will provide further updates later this morning.

Coronal Mass Ejection (Tuesday) - Lasco C2


www.solarham.net
Patrap - I got some extra. Here ya' go.
Quoting Patrap:
..er, the Hollandaise sauce is a lil tight Gro
Chicken stock,? White wine?..Good morning Pat...:)
Morn over dere Hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
..er, the Hollandaise sauce is a lil tight Gro


You could always wash it down with a good 'ol can of Fresca! That'll wet the whistle!
774. JRRP
Quoting Dakster:
After looking at that spread.

You can make me breakfast anytime Grothar..


In my younger days, I worked as a chef in Switzerland and in Italy between school days.
776. JRRP

Quoting Patrap:
..er, the Hollandaise sauce is a lil tight Gro


There's always one in the crowd. :P
Patrick is back on the ol blog, heard you been busy with things over there which is why you haven't been on in long time....
00Z ECMWF has an old adversary making a return by the end of its forecast period.


Quoting Grothar:
They had some big boomers just north of us last night and more today. Very heavy rain in upstate NY.

Where do you live? I'm in Binghamton and they hit just north of us. It was quite cool seeing all the lightning but hearing no thunder and having no rain. Pretty much constant flashes lighting up the night sky though, absolutely beautiful. Looks like it is missing us again today so far.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Patrick is back on the ol blog, heard you been busy with things over there which is why you haven't been on in long time....


Indeed rita...

I made Bond too.

: )
Or the Eruptions blog  http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/category/eruptio ns/
Quoting barbamz:


Send your question to the comment section of volcanocafé. Those guys know a lot about volcanic rocks and stones (some are experts), and they like to solve riddles, lol.

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/

This is still so sad to watch. There have to be thousands of these images.

El Nino SST's

Beginning to clear out now in Southern Illinois.
Quoting EricSpittle:

Where do you live? I'm in Binghamton and they hit just north of us. It was quite cool seeing all the lightning but hearing no thunder and having no rain. Pretty much constant flashes lighting up the night sky though, absolutely beautiful. Looks like it is missing us again today so far.


We live in Fort Lauderdale, but we have a home in Northern Bradford county in Pennsylvania on the New York Border about 30 miles due west of Binghamton.
Keep,

In that polar view it looked like wind was blowing north on both sides of Greenland.
Is that wind good for keeping polar ice at the poles or is it a south hot wind melting the ice even faster?
Quoting Patrap:
El Nino SST's



Nope.
GETTING IT RIGHT: SHELTER & TRANSPORTATION ACCESSIBILITY FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES

Portlight Strategies, Inc. in partnership w/ Brain Dance & Weather Underground is pleased to announce: The Getting It Right Conference: Shelter & Transportation Accessibility for People with Disabilities. We will bring together the disability community with community first responders to dispel false information & facilitate discussion of the real needs of the community with respect to evacuation and sheltering; draw upon the recent, first-hand experience of people with disabilities, & disaster responders, to define the issues we face, & launch a collaborative effort to address them proactively;
focus on simple, easily executable solutions for evacuation transportation & short-term shelter for all people with disabilities, addressing issues of mobility, communication, & cognition; and identify key points to address in planning guidelines & training materials, to be compiled after the conference & incorporated with our TRUE Shelter preparedness program.

[www.portlight.org/conference]<


Anyone care for a full Irish?
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed rita...

I made Bond too.

: )


Nice!
916
WFUS54 KLIX 221434
TORLIX
LAC057-109-221500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0049.130522T1434Z-130522T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
934 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOUMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 932 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BAYOU
CANE...OR NEAR HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RACELAND...MATHEWS AND LOCKPORT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 2982 9055 2963 9042 2949 9075 2965 9085
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 241DEG 14KT 2962 9071



95/DM

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.




Hey Pat, welcome back to the blog. Your images and links have been missed.
Quoting JRRP:



Look like bad storm season for the Caribbean in JJA
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Beginning to clear out now in Southern Illinois.
All the better for this to be set up:

cpc

Quoting Grothar:


We live in Fort Lauderdale, but we have a home in Northern Bradford county in Pennsylvania on the New York Border about 30 miles due west of Binghamton.
Neat to know there's someone on here that is near me at least some of the time. Beautiful area out there in Bradford. The company I work for does a lot of work out that way.
805. PTXer
Anyone know if Levi made it to Oklahoma last night?
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Beginning to clear out now in Southern Illinois.


Getting a shower here in Washington ..
Brrrrr I'm going to bed early. It's cold and it's also raining outside, my bed is nice and warm, also my wife is in there too.

Goodnight all
Quoting PTXer:
Anyone know if Levi made it to Oklahoma last night?


Levi
Finally made it to Norman and got a few hours of sleep. Day 1 is about to begin!
Quoting PTXer:
Anyone know if Levi made it to Oklahoma last night?



Yep :)

Levi
Finally made it to Norman and got a few hours of sleep. Day 1 is about to begin!
Peoria, Illinois (Airport)

Updated: 27 min 56 sec ago


Light Rain
59 °F

Light Rain Mist


Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 56 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the WNW


Pressure: 29.70 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 5.90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft

Mostly Cloudy 3700 ft

Overcast 6500 ft

(Above Ground Level)

TORNADO IN RUSSIA!!! Link
Quoting seminolesfan:


Anyone care for a full Irish?


Maybe a couple of bangers.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



Yep :)

Levi
Finally made it to Norman and got a few hours of sleep. Day 1 is about to begin!


Where exactly is Levi going?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Brrrrr I'm going to bed early. It's cold and it's also raining outside, my bed is nice and warm, also my wife is in there too.

Goodnight all


Good night Aussie!! :)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Where exactly is Levi going?


He has a summer internship at the NWS in Norman.
Quoting Luisport:
TORNADO IN RUSSIA!!! Link
Russian Market%u200F@russian_market6 min
Bloggers report on heavy hurricane that has just hit Russian city of Efremov, 300 km from Moscow. Linkrussian_marketRussian Market 6 m

Russian city of Efremov after #hurricane Link
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


He has a summer internship at the NWS in Norman.


Really? What exactly will his job be?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


3 hrs old


3 hrs old?

Wrong! Earth is at least 5000 years old.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


He has a summer internship at the NWS in Norman.


Well he might as well drive on down I-45 to Galveston to see the GOM and feel how warm the water is. He'd freak. It's not blue and the sand isn't white but at least get an idea of what it's like way down here compared to Alaska.
Quoting oracle28:


3 hrs old?

Wrong! Earth is at least 5000 years old.
lol
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Really? What exactly will his job be?

I would imagine shadowing forecasters in their day to day, some minor classroom type meetings, and general learning and stuff. :)
Quoting oracle28:


3 hrs old?

Wrong! Earth is at least 5000 years old.


Dont you mean five billion?
Quoting Luisport:
Russian Market%u200F@russian_market6 min
Bloggers report on heavy hurricane that has just hit Russian city of Efremov, 300 km from Moscow. Linkrussian_marketRussian Market 6 m

Russian city of Efremov after #hurricane Link
THIS IS REALLY CRAZY!
Quoting seminolesfan:


Anyone care for a full Irish?
Quoting Grothar:
Since most of you missed breakfast, I thought we would have a little Bayou Brunch. It is more civilized anyway. Now don't make little pigs of yourselves. I know how you can be.



OMG guys. That is making my mouth water. :P" yum. :D
The age of earth is 4.54 billion years, since no one can make up their mind, and i happen to know this fact. xD
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


He has a summer internship at the NWS in Norman.
Let's hope Levi doesn't fall in love with severe weather so quickly and take a career in severe weather meteorology, haha ;) My first love of meteorology was hurricanes, but I grew to love severe weather meteorology while growing up in Missouri. I'm sure he'll have hard few days of internship in Norman as NWS Norman is still sorting out Moore tornado and need many hands on deck to help out.
827. MahFL
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Really? What exactly will his job be?


Intern = Gofor, lol.
Quoting Torito:
The age of earth is 4.54 billion years, since no one can make up their mind.


Somewhere around 4-6 billion years for sure.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's hope Levi doesn't fall in love with severe weather so quickly and take a career in severe weather meteorology, haha ;) My first love of meteorology was hurricanes, but I grew to love severe weather meteorology while growing up in Missouri. I'm sure he'll have hard few days of internship in Norman as NWS Norman is still sorting out Moore tornado and need many hands on deck to help out.


The constant lightning-producing supercells is a big step from the low-topped storms that produce occasional rumbles of thunder he is used to.
Earth: Older Than You Think.

Quote from it:

The "best" age for the Earth is based on the time required for the lead isotopes in four very old lead ores (galena) to have evolved from the composition of lead at the time the Solar System formed, as recorded in the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite. This "model lead age" is 4.54 billion years.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Dont you mean five billion?


I said "at least".

Earth age > 5000 years

5 billion years is in that range.
Quoting Torito:
The age of earth is 4.54 billion years, since no one can make up their mind.
Animated version of the lead isotope isochron that Clair Patterson used to determine the age of the solar system and Earth (Patterson, C., 1956, Age of meteorites and the earth: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 10: 230-237). The animation shows progressive growth over 4550 million years (Myr) of the lead isotope ratios for two stony meteorites (Nuevo Laredo and Forest City) from initial lead isotope ratios matching those of the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite.
Date 1 June 2008Fragment of the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite.Barringer Crater, Arizona where the Canyon Diablo meteorite was found.
Quoting hydrus:
Animated version of the lead isotope isochron that Clair Patterson used to determine the age of the solar system and Earth (Patterson, C., 1956, Age of meteorites and the earth: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 10: 230-237). The animation shows progressive growth over 4550 million years (Myr) of the lead isotope ratios for two stony meteorites (Nuevo Laredo and Forest City) from initial lead isotope ratios matching those of the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite.
Date 1 June 2008Fragment of the Canyon Diablo iron meteorite.Barringer Crater, Arizona where the Canyon Diablo meteorite was found.


See post 831, The link on there is really interesting, and has to do with your chart with isotopes.
Oklahoma Tornado Recovery, Severe Weather Threat Moves East

Recovery efforts continue in Moore, Okla., a suburb of Oklahoma City, after Monday's devastating tornado. Meanwhile, a slight risk of severe weather continues for areas of the Lower Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Severe storms may form damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes.
Added 05/22/2013 @ 14:50 UTC
M7.3 Flare Around 1745
A slow eruption peaking at M7.3 around Sunspot 1745 on Wednesday morning produced a bright Coronal Mass Ejection.. This is the second CME of the morning, however this one could have somewhat of an Earth directed component. I will provide further updates as the day goes on. Stay Tuned for more information.
the three big highs!! hot weather coiming sooon.
So... y'all remembered that Moore tornado was first reported as 2-mile wide tornado on news, right? That was because meteorologists tracking the storm said the debris ball on radar was 2 to 2.5 miles wide. Tornado end up being 1.3 mile wide (still a wide tornado). The reason for the debris ball being so wide on radar is that there were many debris flying around the main tornado rotation, making it look so wide on radar.

Also, I saw a comment that someone claimed that Moore tornado is the widest on record. Actually the truth is... Moore tornado is only half as wide as the widest tornado ever which came on this date 9 years ago today. On May 22, 2004, a tornado was born out an outbreak in Nebraska. F4 tornado then hit the town of Hallam, Nebraska around 8 pm at night. Tornado was at the widest point over Hallam at 2.5 miles wide.



Another famous wide tornado is EF5 that hit Greensburg, Kansas. That tornado was so wide that it was wider than the town itself and the whole town was destroyed. That tornado was 1.7 mile wide.
CME (2013-05-22 08:42:31 - 2013-05-22 11:41:55 UTC) Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I really hope this comes to the Panhandle. We haven't gotten rain for like a week and a half! Things are getting fried already.
Nine Year Microwave Sky

The detailed, all-sky picture of the infant universe created from nine years of WMAP data. The image reveals 13.77 billion year old temperature fluctuations (shown as color differences) that correspond to the seeds that grew to become the galaxies. The signal from our galaxy was subtracted using the multi-frequency data. This image shows a temperature range of ± 200 microKelvin.

Credit: NASA / WMAP Science Team..While were at it............The ultimate fate of an expanding universe depends on the matter density ΩM and the dark energy density ΩΛ.
844. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Look like bad storm season for the Caribbean in JJA

yeah


HRRR Forecast Radar Composite for 3PM EDT.

Note the stronger storms east of Birmingham,AL.

Also with nice onshore flow at 925mb all the way to the Carolinas seabreeze boundary convection is also noted all along the SEUS coast.


interesting feature off shore se coast
[ahem]
The Moore Tornado in 2013 created serious destruction similar to Hurricane Andrew in 1992! Andrew's pictures are incredibly like the Moore tornado of this year. The only difference, though, Andrew created $32 billion in destruction across Southern Florida, while the Moore Tornado of 2013 has caused $2 billion to $9 billion in damage. My name is Samantha BTW.