WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Extreme Weather Whiplash: 106° in Iowa on the Heels of Record May Snows

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:48 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

Does not compute! That must be what residents of Iowa and the Midwest have have been saying to themselves on Tuesday as a ferocious heat wave unprecedented in intensity for so early in the year sent temperatures soaring as high as 108°. Just two weeks ago, the deepest snowfall ever measured during any May of record buried a wide swath from Arkansas to Minnesota, with Iowa breaking its all-time snowfall record for May (13” accumulation at Osage on May 1 - 3.) And how's this for a definition of "Weather Whiplash": Sioux City, Iowa had their first-ever snowfall on record in the month of May on May 1 (1.4"), but hit an astonishing 106° yesterday. Not only was this their hottest temperature ever measured in the month of May, but only two June days in recorded history have been hotter (June, 10, 1933: 107° and June 21, 1988: 108°.) On May 12th they registered 29°, and thus had a 77° rise over 56 hours (from 6 a.m. May 12 to 1:30 p.m May 14.)


Figure 1. Intense heat and strong winds fanned a wildfire in northwestern Wisconsin's Douglas County near Gordon on Tuesday, May 14, 2013. The fire spread to 8,700 acres and forced dozens of residents to leave their homes. Image credit: Kevin Harter/Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and courtesy of wisconsinrapidstribune.com.

The hottest temperature of all on Tuesday was 108° at Tekamah, Nebraska. This is just 2° short of warmest temperature ever recorded in the state of Nebraska during May: 110° at Broken Bow in 1895 (exact day unknown.) Numerous all-time early season heat records were set on Tuesday, making the event the most notable May wave in the Midwest since a multi-day event in 1934. That heat wave was not preceded by unusually cold weather, which is what makes the May 2013 Midwest heat event truly extraordinary. A few notable cases of "Weather Whiplash" from the May 14, 2013 heat wave:

- Chicago, Illinois hit 91°, after hitting a low of 36° the previous morning. The 1-day temperature swing of 52° was the city's greatest on record for the month of May.

- Rochester, Minnesota, where 14.5” of snow fell just 10 - 12 days ago (4th greatest snowstorm for any month on record), saw an all-time early season heat record of 97° on May 14th. The previous day, May 13th, it was 32° in Rochester--a 65° rise in temperature over the course of 36 hours.

- Omaha, Nebraska hit 101°, the earliest 100° on record (old record 102° on May 29, 1934). It was 32° in Omaha on May 12th! That tied for the coldest so late in the season with 32° on 5/13/1997 and also on 5/15/1983.

- Albert Lea and St. James, Minnesota hit 102° (hottest in the state on Tuesday.) Both cities had May snow less than two weeks previously. Tuesday morning, it was 27° at Crane Lake and Silver Bay, for a same-day state temperature spread of 75° in Minnesota. This is a relatively common figure for California or Texas, but almost unprecedented for a Midwestern state.

- Minneapolis hit 98°, the hottest so early in season (next is 99° on May 22, 1925). May record is 106° on May 31, 1934 (the only time 100° has been measured during May).

- Norfolk, Nebraska hit 103°, the hottest temperature ever measured so early in the year (previous record: 103° on May 25, 1967. A daily record low of 29° was recorded on May 12th, just two days previous.

Fires in Wisconsin and Minnesota
The intense heat was accompanied by strong winds, which fanned multiple fires in Minnesota and Wisconsin. One fire, near Gordon, Wisconsin, burned 8,700 acres, making it the largest fire in Wisconsin since the Cottonville fire on May 5, 2005, and the largest fire in Northern Wisconsin since the Oak Lake fire of April 22, 1980 (11418 acres.) The Gordon fire destroyed 47 structures, including 17 homes, and forced the evacuation of several dozen people. The fire was 90% contained Wednesday morning. At least 25 smaller wildfires were reported in Minnesota, and Governor Mark Dayton signed an emergency order on Tuesday to help the Minnesota Interagency Fire Center fight wildfires around the state.

Why the crazy extremes? Blame the jet stream
The position of the jet stream is a critical controller of weather regimes across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. Precipitation-bearing low pressure system ride along the axis of the jet, and the jet marks the boundary between cold, Canadian air to the north, and warm, subtropical air to the south. On average, the jet flows from west to east, but the jet often departs from average. The jet is continually rippling with U-shaped troughs of low pressure that allow cold air to spill southwards. The troughs are counterbalanced by upside-down-U-shaped ridges of high pressure that bring warm air northwards. When these ridges and troughs grow to unusually large amplitude, record extremes of both cold and heat occur adjacent to each other. Often times, the jet will have multiple extreme loops that result in unusual extremes over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere. That was the case Tuesday in Europe, where an unusually strong ridge of high pressure was present over Western Russia, with a companion strong trough of low pressure over the U.K. Moscow, Russia hit 29.7°C (85.5°F) on Tuesday, and several locations within the city rose to 31°C (88°F). According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this has never happened in the first half of May before. At the same time, up to 3" of snow fell in the U.K. on Tuesday, a rare occurrence for mid-May. Could climate change be a factor in the extreme gyrations of the jet stream this year? It could, and I discussed some of the possible connections in my April 2013 post, Unusually cold spring in Europe and the Southeast U.S. due to the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 2. Monday afternoon's jet stream shows the pronounced ridge (upside-down U-shaped curve to the jet stream) over the Midwest U.S., which led to all-time record high temperatures for so early in the year. At the same time, a sharp trough of low pressure (U-shaped dip in the jet stream) was present over the East Coast, which allowed cold air from Canada to spill southwards and set record lows--for example, 44° at Tallahassee, Florida on May 14.

Jeff Masters and Christopher C. Burt
May Snow?
May Snow?
Snowing outside and it's May, here in Sturgeon Bay

Extreme Weather Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Tazmanian:




oh cares about ALVIN right now we have strong tornados out there wish is the main talk to night
Good point.We have OTHER things to worry about.
(CNN) -- Several people were killed and 10 were injured Wednesday night when a possible tornado hit Granbury, Texas, city officials said.

CNN reporting several fatalities, 100(-,+) injured in the Fort Worth area.
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC is reporting a tornado in Dallas, near the Dallas zoo
Tornado warning just cancelled for Dallas. I don't see any rotation on GRLevel3.
Quoting MississippiWx:
(CNN) -- Several people were killed and 10 were injured Wednesday night when a possible tornado hit Granbury, Texas, city officials said.

Typical CNN, trying to get the story out first and collects the information later. SMH
walking wounded in Rancho Brazo, Hood County..
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Typical CNN, trying to get the story out first and collects the information later. SMH

?
Circulation is gone again.

Please, please stay gone.
Storming again in Hood County, those poor people
Quoting sunlinepr:
its gaining lets see if it takes off
HPC analyzed a weak surface boundary on their 00Z boundry. This likely helped the storms gain their rotation to a much greater degree than expected, similar to what happened in the same area last April.

There were at least two DOS reports on the scanner earlier.

Wouldn't be shocked if there were more.
anyone know where AtHome is located?
Quoting ncstorm:
anyone know where AtHome is located?


NE of Houston, near Louisiana I believe. Maybe Beaumont?
Quoting 1900hurricane:
HPC analyzed a weak surface boundary on their 00Z boundry. This likely helped the storms gain their rotation to a much greater degree than expected, similar to what happened in the same area last April.


Mesoscale accident.

Wonder where we've seen that with violent tornadoes before.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
CNN reporting several fatalities, 100(-,+) injured in the Fort Worth area.


Weatherford, Mineral Wells, Hood county, all just west of Fort Worth.
From CNN

"Kathy Jividen, a spokeswoman for the Hood County, Texas, sheriff's office said there were "multiple fatalities" in the wake of the storm."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

?
We don't have right information for now. We don't know exactly how many had died and injured.
storms weakening

Quoting Bluestorm5:
We don't have right information for now. We don't know exactly how many had died and injured.


It looks to be bad in Hood County..several media sites other than CNN are reporting casualties..
Hood County still experiencing potential tornadic storms..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mesoscale accident.

Wonder where we've seen that with violent tornadoes before.

I can name a few. Joplin, Jarrel, and the April 2012 event all come to mind.
The Hood County scanner at one point several minutes ago mentioned 'several bodies' but haven't heard that since.
2 fatalities being reported by TWC in Hood County, Tx
Prayers go out to those affected by the storms tonight.

Just to give a heads up on Alvin a recent SSMIS pass shows an inner core developing:



A close up of the 91 GHz PCT:

Confirmed 2 fatalities in Hood county...

Link
Hood County commission reporting 2 fatalities.
Two confirmed death in Hood County, TX.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Prayers go out to those affected by the storms tonight.

Just to give a heads up on Alvin a recent SSMIS pass shows an inner core developing:



A close up of the 91 GHz PCT:



Yeah, Alvin wants to put on a show tonight as well.
There is an SPC report from near Granbury.

0106 6 SE GRANBURY HOOD TX 3239 9773 TORNADO IN PECAN PLANTATION (FWD)

Only report in so far from near Cleburne is 80mph wind at the Cleburne Hospital.
0221 80 CLEBURNE JOHNSON TX 3235 9740 AT THE CLEBURNE HOSPITAL (FWD)

Add: also a 1.75" hail report there.

Probably this does not reflect the full picture of a rough daybreak ahead for many.
Prayers UP for the people in the areas affected by the weather tonight..
Storm mode is becoming more linear in nature. Hopefully this will limit the tornado potential. What a wild 1-2 hours. Afraid that tornado in Hood and Johnson counties was a violent one (EF-4+).



Looks like it will keep on going for a while...
This spot near Cleburne/Grandview still looks suspicious.

The mile-wide tornado report was't an exaggeration.

Quoting MississippiWx:


NE of Houston, near Louisiana I believe. Maybe Beaumont?

I live in BMT also.
Looks like the storms are winding down some, which makes sense given that the sun is down and boundary layer heating has stopped. Without a surface-based updraft, the tornado threat should drop off significantly.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mile-wide tornado report was't an exaggeration.



Geez.
I've got family just north and east of Cleburne. After an hour of trying to get a hold of them they finally answered...said the lightning is insane and it's raining harder than they can remember in a long time. Hail has been beating down, and the local news has been telling everyone that power could go out at anytime.
Quoting KeysieLife:
I've got family just north and east of Cleburne. After an hour of trying to get a hold of them they finally answered...said the lightning is insane and it's raining harder than they can remember in a long time. Hail has been beating down, and the local news has been telling everyone that power could go out at anytime.

At least they're ok
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mile-wide tornado report was't an exaggeration.


Wow
545. SLU
I hope all of our bloggers are safe with all this tornado activity occurring tonight.
Quoting KeysieLife:
I've got family just north and east of Cleburne. After an hour of trying to get a hold of them they finally answered...said the lightning is insane and it's raining harder than they can remember in a long time. Hail has been beating down, and the local news has been telling everyone that power could go out at anytime.
Your family got d*** lucky tonight... that tornado was very powerful until sudden death near Cleburne.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mile-wide tornado report was't an exaggeration.




that nado looks like the Greenburg KS nado
good night everyone..prayers go out to those affected by tonight storms..

Dr. Forbes torcon index

Saturday, May 18

Could be the start of a severe weather outbreak. Scattered severe thunderstorms in the TX
panhandle and northwest TX, west OK, west KS, southwest NE.

TORCON -

KS southwest - 5
KS northwest - 3
NE southwest - 3
OK northwest (excluding panhandle) - 5
TX northwest and panhandle - 3
other areas - less than 2
Sunday, May 19

Severe weather outbreak. Numerical models differ, however, on the details of the threat area,
with the European model somewhat farther east. Scattered severe thunderstorms in north-central
TX, central OK, central and east KS, extreme east NE, extreme east SD, northwest MO, west and
central IA, south MN.

TORCON -

IA west, central - 4
KS south-central, southeast - 5
KS north-central, northeast - 4
MN - south - 4
MO northwest - 3 to 4
NE extreme east - 3
OK central - 6
SD extreme east - 3
TX north-central - 3
other areas - less than 2
Quoting MississippiWx:
This spot near Cleburne/Grandview still looks suspicious.


I agree and with this storm, we have to keep our eyes on it
Quoting Tazmanian:



that nado looks like the Greenburg KS nado

Well yes. This tornado was a wedge, that tornado was a wedge. This tornado was at night, that tornado was at night.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Your family got d*** lucky tonight... that tornado was very powerful until sudden death near Cleburne.


Yeah and they know it. They don't have a storm cellar there...they've been huddled in the bathroom. It's amazing to watch these things develop, but gets real when it hits close to home.
I really don't look forward to seeing pictures of the damaged areas tomorrow morning, nor finding out the final death toll.

Just reminds me how lucky we were in Hattiesburg that no one died despite an EF3 to EF4 tornado moving through the middle of town.


Here animation of the base velocities of a tornadic storm showing what appears to be a strong tornado taking a sharp left turn towards Cleburne, TX on 5-15-13.
Prayers go out to all that are in the tornadoes paths tonight... Stay safe and listen to the latest warnings.. Did not see this coming.
Grandview should play close attention to that hook heading right at them. Not much rotation yet.

Quoting sunlinepr:


Here animation of the base velocities of a tornadic storm showing what appears to be a strong tornado taking a sharp left turn towards Cleburne, TX on 5-15-13.


unbelievable.. WOW
I'll say TA13 is getting pretty famous on Twitter for that picture... better give the person credit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well yes. This tornado was a wedge, that tornado was a wedge. This tornado was at night, that tornado was at night.



i wounder if the nado hit any thing be for it weakin i think there was a sub-division
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'll say TA13 is getting pretty famous on Twitter for that picture... better give the person credit.

I already have. Twice. Lol.

Yeah, I was sitting here and I was like...

'Well...if this tornado picture turns out to be a fake, I'm screwed.'
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I already have. Twice. Lol.

Yeah, I was sitting here and I was like...

'Well...if this tornado picture turns out to be a fake, I'm screwed.'
Well, if it's from Texas Storm Chasers then it must be real...
Well, i'm leaving for the night. My thoughts go out to everyone effected by the tornadoes.
Nice CDO with Alvin.

FOX 4 NEWS ‏@FOX4 2m

Hood County officials confirm two people have died from tornado, 16 critically injured, multiple homes damaged.
Wedge tornado near Rio Vista before the turn (Facebook):

Link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Wedge tornado near Rio Vista before the turn (Facebook):

Link




and I see some commets from facesbook on the same pages

Trudy Stanbery Reporting massive damage, injuries. Praying.
I started this curious forecast last night, but I've had two prior dreams related to this picture.

The earth cannot wait.



Continue ...

Cody Fields @CodyFields82 23min
A mile-wide #tornado as it moves into southern Cleburne, Texas.

'
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I already have. Twice. Lol.

Yeah, I was sitting here and I was like...

'Well...if this tornado picture turns out to be a fake, I'm screwed.'


Bye Bye reputation...Lol :)...just kidding
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
01E/TS/A/CX

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I started this curious forecast last night, but I've had two prior dreams related to this picture.

The earth cannot wait.






what dos that have too do with any thing where talking about tonight?
Shawn Reynolds %u200F@WCL_Shawn 2m

Wow. | MORE NEW VIDEO reported to be of #tornado passing over Lake Granbury, TX https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=1015191997614 8787 %u2026 #TXwx

copy the link in your browser
Official: Multiple fatalities in Texas storm
Official: Reports of homes flattened
Author: By CNN Staff




Link
Quoting Gearsts:


Looks like it will go negative in 2 weeks.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Official: Multiple fatalities in Texas storm
Official: Reports of homes flattened
Author: By CNN Staff




Link



looks like at lest a strong EF4 damge there may be even a EF5 damges
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
5:30 AM IST May 16 2013
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over northwest Bay of Bengal moved northeastward during the past 6 hours at the speed of about 13 knots and now lays centered near 20.0N 89.5E, or about 990 km north northwest of Port Blair, Andaman Sea, 310 km south southeast of Kolkata, India, 300 km east of Paradip, India, and 360 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

System is likely to move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast near Chittagong at around 20:30 PM IST (Today) with maximum sustained winds of 45 knots at the time of landfall

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T3.0. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over northern Bay of Bengal north of 18.0N adjoining east central Bay of Bengal, northeast Orissa, Gangetic, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Tripura, Mizoram, northern coastal Arakan, and adjoining Myanmar. the lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -94C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The central pressure is 990 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Storm Surge Guidance
=====================
Storm surge of about 1-1.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Bangladesh coast near the point of landfall.

Westerly trough at 500 HPA now runs along 83.0E, leading to faster movement of the system. The vertical wind shear of the horizontal wind continues to be 5-10 knots over the system. Low level convergence is high around the system. The shear tendency is negative of the order 5-10 knots around the system during past six hours. Latest OCEANSAT winds suggest 40 knots around the system center. The sea surface temperature is about 30- 31C and ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over storm area and decreases gradually towards northern Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 5 with amplitude >1.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northeastward movement of the system and landfall over Bangladesh coast, close to Chittagong between 23:30 PM IST (Today) and 5:30 AM IST (Friday). However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. GFS weakens intensity towards landfall. ECMWF model maintains cyclonic storm intensity for next few hrs and weakens gradually thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity of cyclonic storm until landfall. JMA maintains intensity of cyclonic storm until landfall. HWRF model increases intensity for next few hrs and decreases thereafter and crossing the system as cyclonic storm with wind speed of 45 knots. UKMO maintains intensity of cyclonic storm for next few hours and weakens thereafter towards landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.8N 91.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 23.5N 93.1E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting KeysieLife:


Yeah and they know it. They don't have a storm cellar there...they've been huddled in the bathroom. It's amazing to watch these things develop, but gets real when it hits close to home.
A hurricane develops. A tornado drops out of the sky.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
R.I. FLAG FLAG
01E/TS/A/CX



What format do you use for your storm markings (i.e. what does stuff like the "A" and "CX" mean)?
As much as I wish I was out chasing this evening, I don't think I would have enjoyed chasing that Cleburne storm. That cell was erratic.
Cyclone prompts mass evacuations in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is evacuating one million people with Cyclone Mahasen expected to hit its low-lying delta coast on Thursday evening, said the United Nations, which estimated 4.1 million people were at risk due to gale-force winds, heavy rain and flooding.

Bangladesh has raised its storm warning to seven, on a scale with a maximum of 10, as Mahasen approaches one of the poorest countries in Asia with winds of around 100 km/h.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
As much as I wish I was out chasing this evening, I don't think I would have enjoyed chasing that Cleburne storm. That cell was erratic.


The way that went north suddenly probibly caught a lot of people off guard.
Quoting cg2916:


What format do you use for your storm markings (i.e. what does stuff like the "A" and "CX" mean)?


01E is storm number e means epac
AOI means area of interest INV means invest TD tropical depression TS is tropical storm H will be cane MH major cane
A is storms first letter cx is for cat with x being 1 2 3 4 5 for storms force
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like at lest a strong EF4 damge there may be even a EF5 damges
Look like either EF3 or EF4 (although more likely EF3) in Hood County, but I need more pictures. Still haven't seen any damage pictures from that crazy Johnson County storm.
That surface trough I mentioned earlier shows up really well on the 02Z RAP analysis, which is about when all hell was breaking loose I believe.

okay..I ended up on twitter but leaving for real..

Jayson Prentice ‏@SeverePlains 3h

"Game-changing" improvements coming for GFS model w/ 3-fold increase in resolution & ten-fold increase of capacity
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Look like either EF3 or EF4 (although more likely EF3) in Hood County, but I need more pictures. Still haven't seen any damage pictures from that crazy Johnson County storm.


ok
Quoting Skyepony:


The way that went north suddenly probibly caught a lot of people off guard.
Two EF4s in central OK did that in unison a couple years ago. Greg Carbin at SPC said it wasn't the (Canadian) River that turned them, but I kind of think it was. Bet there was a body of water involved tonight. Looking at the Google map terrain, maybe Lake Cleburne. (Add: The Brazos!?)

As reported in an earlier comment, if people N and E of Cleburne had taken shelter from a SE moving storm, surely Cleburne was warned. 'Course that doesn't mean people paid attention.

That great SRV loop at comment 553 tells the tale. You can see where it was strongest, a point ESE "Pecan Plantation (edit)" mentioned in SPC tor report and SW of Cleburne, and rotation was still nothing to sneeze just south of Cleburne.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
That surface trough I mentioned earlier shows up really well on the 02Z RAP analysis, which is about when all hell was breaking loose I believe.

As I recall, SPC pretty well had this potential pegged in the 1130 convective outlook (maybe it was 0730) - the DFW area potential increased tor threat from spin and the timing.

Good night, wu-sters.

God Bless Texas.
May 15th

May 21st
About to make landfall


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
8:30 AM IST May 16 2013
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over northern Bay of Bengal moved northeastward during the past 6 hours at the speed of about 13 knots and now lays centered near 21.0N 90.0E, or about 240 km south southeast of Kolkata, India and 240 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

System is likely to move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast near Chittagong during this evening

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5, CI 3.0. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over northern Bay of Bengal, adjoining east central Bay of Bengal north of 18.0N, adjoining esat central Bay of Bengal and northeast Orissa, adjoining southeast Jhakhand, Gangetic, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Tripura, Mizoram, and northern coastal Arakan, adjoining Myanmar. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -83C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The estimated central pressure is 988 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Storm Surge Guidance
======================
Storm surge of about 1-1.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying area of Bangladesh coast near the point of landfall

Doppler radar at Agartala reported the center of Mahasen at 180 km south southwest of Agartala at 8:30 AM IST. The system is moving predominately in northeast direction. Most of the cloud mass is over the land. Maximum wind speed is 40 knots. However, the center is not well defined.
Breaking News Storm‏@breakingstorm45 min
City of Cleburne, Texas, declared a disaster area following large tornado - @OmarVillafranca
Good Morning folks!!..the Coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy...AND Prayers for those folks in Texas who were in the Path of that Horrible Tornado,the news is simply awful there...........CNN) -- Possible tornadoes ripped through north Texas on Wednesday night, killing at least six people and injuring more than 100 others, officials said.
The fatalities occurred when the storm struck a Habitat for Humanity neighborhood in the Granbury area, Hood County Sheriff Roger Deeds said. There were about 120 homes in the neighborhood and most of them were destroyed.
Fourteen people still missing and the death toll could rise, according to Deeds.
7 day for Tampa bay, very little chance for rain this week..
15 days left until the official Atlantic hurricane season begins!
Here's the primary dream I mentioned in Post 568 above, published back on March 27, 2013 Post 978. OracleDeAtlantis 4:22 PM GMT.

This is the only weather forecast I've made this year, and it was dream based. I just reported what I saw and where, generally, attempting to put into words the elements that I thought were important. They key feature is that I saw a lot of damage in a big metropolitan area to the southwest of this curious "boundary line" I mention.

What's amazing to me is that late last night(early A.M.,) for reasons I cannot explain, I suddenly realized what this "boundary" line represented. It simply marked the end of the Trail of Tears. As some here may recall, I used the exact same Trail of Tears theme last year in my hurricane forecast(Giant "S".) So once I realized what this "boundary line" was I produced the picture forecast you see above in Post 568, which is dated and time stamped early A.M. yesterday.

It was as if the pieces were meant to come together at just the right moment in time, in my mind's eye. The only reason I didn't publish what I had drawn last night, was it was bed time, and I thought something might have been missing. I had not been following the weather at all over the past few days, and had no idea that Dr. Forbes had even issued a TOR:CON value of 3 for the affected area, and sadly where many people were injured and lost their lives. I think tomorrow we'll see what I saw in this dream, and in the general vicinity of where.

So for the meteorology students who may be taught that forecasting the weather is part intuition, I think I'm proof of that.

So here's the dream again, for those who likely missed this in March, including the curious map, which accompanied it.

This is the third year that I've used American Indian themes for producing weather forecasts, and they've all arguably been very accurate. However, I have no idea what this means. It's just intriguing, since I don't believe in ghosts or communication with the dead.

I do, however, believe that there will be more serious damage to heavily populated areas to the west and southwest of where the Trail of Tears ended, because in the March dream, I saw several cities affected; at least three or four populated areas.

March 27, 2013 Post 978. OracleDeAtlantis 4:22 PM GMT
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
About a week ago, I had a dream about large concentrated hail in a place that gets a lot of it. When I woke up, I pondered to myself, why was I dreaming about large hail in a place that gets a lot of it, especially at this time of the year.

Your map may provide a clue, however, because the boundary of expected colder than average temps. vs. higher than expected, is approximately where I saw a curious boundary line drawn in my dream. What that boundary line represented, I wasn't sure.

In my dream I saw this boundary line extending up the west side of Arkansas, and then I looked and saw great hail damage in several cities to the west and southwest of, and including the boundary line, but nothing specific by name. I saw devastating hail damage to cars, such that some of the roofs were partly caved in.

I rarely publish my weather dreams here, but this forecast map intrigued me in relation to the curious line or boundary that I saw. I also can't recall seeing this long range temperature forecast, or any other for the upcoming spring storm season, prior to this dream.

I can only recall dreaming about large hail one other time, and it was last year. That dream came true almost to perfection and in a place where large concentrated hail is rarely seen, perhaps only once a century. It was unusual, because a single storm cell damaged all four sides of people's homes, and I know that is rare. It also came from a direction atypical for severe weather in the area I dreamed about. Interestingly, the dream also pointed to the atypical direction, such than when I woke up, I couldn't believe what I had seen. I felt it had to be wrong. Yet, it happened, and directly changed the course of my life's path.

It may not mean anything, but after what happened to me last year, I won't ignore it.

Here's my map, showing roughly the boundary I saw, extending west and southwest as far as I recall seeing cities affected.


No changes

2:00 AM PDT Thu May 16
Location: 9.1%uFFFDN 106.9%uFFFDW
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Mornin' Wes! Largo! HGW !

Evening Mr. Aussie!

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
11:30 AM IST May 16 2013
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over northern Bay of Bengal moved north northeastward during the past 6 hours at the speed of 20 knots and now lays near 22.5N 91.0E, close to Hatia Island, Bangladesh and about 95 km west northwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh and 70 km south southwest of Feni, Bangladesh.

It is likely to move north northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast between Feni and Chittagong during the next few hours.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over north Bay of Bengal, adjoining east central Bay of Bengal, northeast Orissa, southeast Gangetic, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Assam, northern Arakan coast, and adjoining Myanmar. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -71C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The central pressure is 990 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Storm Surge Guidance
====================
Storm surge of about 2-2.5 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Bangladesh coast near the point of landfall.

The vertical wind shear of the horizontal wind continues to be 5-10 knots over the system. Low level convergence is high around the system. The shear tendency is negative of the order 5-10 knots around the system during past six hours. However, the wind shear would increase as the system moves over land leading to gradual weakening of the system. Latest OCEANSAT winds suggest 40 knots around the system center.

Doppler radar at Agartala reported the center of the system at 22.9N 91.2E, or 105 km south of Agartala at 12:44 PM IST. The system is moving predominately in a north northeast direction.

After the landfall the system would weaken gradually due to interaction with land surface.
morning indianrivguy
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Afternoon showers will again fall in PR but the bigger story will be the next week's big rain event that is forecast for most of the Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TONIGHT
AND FRI. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIB NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY AS UPPER
LEVE TROF AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT ACTIVITY
ISN`T LIKELY TO BE AS INTENSE AS IT WAS YDAY. SHARPER DRYING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROF AND WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES.

MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PROMOTES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
CONVERGE OVR THE AREA SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH AT H5
FCST TO EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WRN CARIB WILL HELP
INDUCE A SWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH AN EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION
FCST TO CONVERGE OVR HISPANIOLA...CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY PR. OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ARND
16/16Z. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AFT 16/16Z ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ARND TJMZ IN AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16/21Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL AFTER 16/21Z AT
TKPK OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ESE 10 TO 15 KTS
FROM SFC UP TO 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT OVR THE WEEKEND IN MIXED
NORTHEAST SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES. TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD MAINLY OVER CARIB WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 0
STT 87 79 87 79 / 30 20 20 10
Good morning. It sounds like 6 people are confirmed dead with 14 missing after last night's massive tornado.

Link

More severe weather appears on the way for this weekend and early next week.

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warm 67 degrees with a high of 83 later. Forecast says a 20% chance of rain, but it looks like we're about to be hit. I don't want rain today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is Field Day for the kids and we need dry ground. Tomorrow is also my last day of school, can't wait! School actually ends a week from Friday, but I head out for Louisville for the Papillon National Specialty (big dog show) on Saturday, so will miss the last week.

Breakfasts on the sideboard: Eggs with bacon or sausage, breakfast casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
mile wide? almost unbelievable
yesterday--I would have thought it would have been more tornados

Quoting ncstorm:
yesterday--I would have thought it would have been more tornados


Really??? Only 3 Tornadoes? That can't be right.
AFP twitter pic: people in Chittagong watching landfalling Mahasen

Good morning folks over there. Sorry to hear about the horrible tornado in Texas last night.
Concerning Mahasen: Here is the animation of it's quite northern landfall. Not many news about the impact right now.

TS ALVIN :D



50KT winds...

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warm 67 degrees with a high of 83 later. Forecast says a 20% chance of rain, but it looks like we're about to be hit. I don't want rain today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is Field Day for the kids and we need dry ground. Tomorrow is also my last day of school, can't wait! School actually ends a week from Friday, but I head out for Louisville for the Papillon National Specialty (big dog show) on Saturday, so will miss the last week.

Breakfasts on the sideboard: Eggs with bacon or sausage, breakfast casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.

I'll take some. Tip is under glass of water.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Really??? Only 3 Tornadoes? That can't be right.


Evening, aussie :P
Quoting barbamz:
AFP twitter pic: people in Chittagong watching landfalling Mahasen

Good morning folks over there. Sorry to hear about the horrible tornado in Texas last night.
Concerning Mahasen: Here is the animation of it's quite northern landfall. Not many news about the impact right now.





Why are they watching, they must want to die. Why isn't the UN and govt doing more to warn them of the impending storm surge
Feels so nice outside... 74 degrees and light rain :D

The best part is that the rain dries on you after about 2 minutes of contact...

Alvin's low-level center is exposed, or very close to be exposed, due to westerly wind shear. This was not forecast, and all the model intensity forecasts are lower than yesterday. This may not become a hurricane at all. If it does, it'll be for a brief period of time.

Quoting AussieStorm:




Why are they watching, they must want to die. Why isn't the UN and govt doing more to warn them of the impending storm surge



In those countries, sometimes the government could care less what the citizens are doing... It is heartbreaking to see....
Ill be back later, cya guys
Good, the more north-westerly path of Mahasen spared the refugee camps:

Cyclone Mahasen fizzles as it hits Bangladesh
By FARID HOSSAIN
May. 16 7:13 AM EDT
COX'S BAZAR, Bangladesh (AP) %u2014 Cyclone Mahasan weakened Thursday afternoon into a tropical storm, causing far less damage than had been feared as it passed over coastal Bangladesh and spared Myanmar almost entirely.

At least 18 deaths related to Mahasen were reported in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, but officials had prepared for a far greater storm. Bangladesh evacuated 1 million people from coastal areas and the United Nations warned that 8.2 million people could face life-threatening conditions.

The cyclone lost power as it shed huge amounts of rainfall and then veered west of its predicted path, sparing major Bangladeshi population areas, including Chittagong and the seaside resort of Cox's Bazar, said Mohammad Shah Alam, director of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

"Thank God we have been spared this time," local government administrator Ruhul Amin said.

The storm's impact in Myanmar, where officials were having trouble evacuating tens of thousands of displaced Rohingya people, was minimal.


Read the whole AP-article

Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie and all, have a great Friday.
Quoting Torito:



In those countries, sometimes the government could care less what the citizens are doing... It is heartbreaking to see....


The UN is not govt based. They have been doing the evacuations of refugee camps.
00z Euro




The twisters last evening in North Texas are devastating. Hard to believe that such powerful, large wedge tornadoes occurred when the SPC had only issued a 5% non-hatched area for tornadoes. I mean the thing was a mile wide, for Pete's sake.
628. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
00z Euro






The Red version seems to be showing something different I have cleared my cache ..



as is Weather online

629. VR46L
Btw Forgot to say Good Morning Folks

Sad to see that there was so much Death and destruction last night !

Quoting Torito:



In those countries, sometimes the government could care less what the citizens are doing... It is heartbreaking to see....
what is up with this perception lately that government is supposed to be everyone's mom? How about citizens do their own research to protect THEMSELVES from storm surge. Ugh, government started as the postal service and has turned into a monster
Looks as if the rainy season is starting this weekend. A nice SE surge of DEEP tropical moisture is progged to move NW across the Bahamas and over FL come next week.

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
The twisters last evening in North Texas are devastating. Hard to believe that such powerful, large wedge tornadoes occurred when the SPC had only issued a 5% non-hatched area for tornadoes. I mean the thing was a mile wide, for Pete's sake.

Just goes to show that the Forecasting of weather events, especially isolated events like this one, is a very difficult thing to do.
Conditions change by the minute.....

Very sad to learn of the fatalities and the destruction.
Quoting Doppler22:
Well, i'm leaving for the night. My thoughts go out to everyone effected by the tornadoes.
..affected...
Quoting sunlinepr:
Official: Multiple fatalities in Texas storm
Official: Reports of homes flattened
Author: By CNN Staff




Link

Looks like the trash compactor in Star Wars! LOL
Not many tornadoes yesterday but the ones that formed were massive. I heard one was over a mile wide. My thoughts and prayers are with those who had to endure that yesterday.


At Least 6 Confirmed Dead from Possible Tornado in Texas
noticed the bangladesh cyclone is making landfall as a moderate tropical storm. its sad all those people drowned fearing the worst they might of been better to stay hunkered up
Quoting DFWdad:


Weatherford, Mineral Wells, Hood county, all just west of Fort Worth.
...and which direction was that system moving? NE? or East? Anyone know for sure?
Quoting Waltanater:
...and which direction was that system moving? NE? or East? Anyone know for sure?

It was moving southeast but did a ridiculous, never-seen-before* 180 and moved north-northeast.

* - At least I've never seen it before. And I've tracked a lot of violent tornadoes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was moving southeast but did a ridiculous, never-seen-before* 180 and moved north-northeast.

* - At least I've never seen it before. And I've tracked a lot of violent tornadoes.

That was insane!
643. SLU
The Atlantic is still the warmest basin relative to normal.

Henry Margusity Fan Club
News out of areas west of Dallas just keeps getting worse with time. My guess is we had at least an EF3 or greater tornado.
Quoting SLU:
The Atlantic is still the warmest basin relative to normal.



I noticed something interesting and that is the Gulf of Guinea is starting to get cool and when it does that it helps the ITCZ lift north more rapidly.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK
NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
PWAT VALUES TO BE AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.3 INCHES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED UP INTO
THE CHANCE CAT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE POPS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAISED IN
LATER FORECASTS.
HOW THE HELL DO I REMOVE TWC MALWARE FROM MY COMPUTER,AND WHY THE HELL DID THIS SITE PUT IT ON MY COMPUTER AGAIN (TWICE) WITHOUT MY PERMISSION?

I uninstalled the damn thing again, but I bet it comes back in a day or two.
Quoting RTSplayer:
HOW THE HELL DO I REMOVE TWC MALWARE FROM MY COMPUTER,AND WHY THE HELL DID THIS SITE PUT IT ON MY COMPUTER AGAIN (TWICE) WITHOUT MY PERMISSION?

I miss when this site was just owned by The Weather Underground.
The CMC is really hammering out some big rainfall totals for you, Scott. Can you share some of that with me? We've been pretty dry here lately in Southern Illinois the past couple weeks.
Good morning folks. Sad to see the loss of life and destruction from the tornados last night.
The last couple runs of the GFS have finally been coming around in bringing back seasonal or slightly above seasonal average rainfall totals in my region. Thank goodness since the hotter months of June and July are fast approaching!
Now we just have to get the NAM aboard! Ha!
654. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I noticed something interesting and that is the Gulf of Guinea is starting to get cool and when it does that it helps the ITCZ lift north more rapidly.


Interesting
What monster tornado this was.



Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
what is up with this perception lately that government is supposed to be everyone's mom? How about citizens do their own research to protect THEMSELVES from storm surge. Ugh, government started as the postal service and has turned into a monster
You get your hurricane information from a government organization that gathers data from government-operated satellites and government-built ships and government-maintained buoys, and transmitted to you over the government-created internet and/or the government-regulated airwaves. It's not about government being anyone's "mom"; it's about government doing things for all of us collectively that none of us could do individually. IOW: unless you're placing your own satellites in orbit and crunching the data on your own supercomputers, you're no more doing your own research than those refugees huddled in tents along the Bangladesh coast...
Quoting bigwes6844:



Little patch in the Carribean again.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
14:30 PM IST May 16 2013
==========================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over northeast Bay of Bengal moved north northeastward during the past 6 hours at the speed of about 25 knots and crossed Bangladesh coast between Chittagong and Feni, near 22.8N 91.4E (about 30 km south of Feni) at around 13:30 PM IST. Mahasen currently lays near 23.5N 92.0E overland Bangladesh, about 75 km southwest of Aizal, and 85 km southeast of Agartala.

System will continue to move north northeastward and weaken into a deep depression during the next 3-6 hours.

According to satellite imagery, associated moderate to intense convection is seen over northern Bay of Bengal, Gangetic, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Assam, West Arunachal, Pradesh, northern Arakan coast, adjoining Myanmar. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -51C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea over northeast Bay of Bengal is rough to very rough.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You get your hurricane information from a government organization that gathers data from government-operated satellites and government-built ships and government-maintained buoys, and transmitted to you over the government-created internet and/or the government-regulated airwaves. It's not about government being anyone's "mom"; it's about government doing things for all of us collectively that none of us could do individually. IOW: unless you're placing your own satellites in orbit and crunching the data on your own supercomputers, you're no more doing your own research than those refugees huddled in tents along the Bangladesh coast...

The government created the internet? What? LOL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
What monster tornado this was.




Scott. Help me understand this. Florida can see tornadoes. That's not that uncommon. But is it possible for anywhere in the state to see an EF2 or greater?
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel1 min
Aerial footage via @NBCDFW in Granbury, TX disconcerting. Appears to be only a slab foundation remaining on some homes. High-end #damage.
Aerial footage via @NBCDFW in Granbury, TX disconcerting. Appears to be only a slab foundation remaining on some homes. High-end damage.




http://i1287.photobucket.com/albums/a636/Aussiest orm1975/Capture1_zpsee9a7ba8.jpg



















Live stream >>> Here <<<
A tornado killed six people last night when the tornado threat was at a minimum.

Just to show you how unpredictable nature truly is. Something to keep in mind for this hurricane season.
AUSSIE where was that
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Scott. Help me understand this. Florida can see tornadoes. That's not that uncommon. But is it possible for anywhere in the state to see an EF2 or greater?


Most of our tornadoes are EF0 or EF1. The reason is most of our tornadoes occur from pulse type thunderstorms which can produce brief spin ups as the Jet Stream is usually to far to the north to get big tornadoes like what occurs in the Plains.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Most of our tornadoes are EF0 or EF1. The reason is most of our tornadoes occur from pulse type thunderstorms which can produce brief spin ups as the Jet Stream is usually to far to the north to get big tornadoes like what occurs in the Plains.


Your most powerful tornadoes come from landfalling Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. Right?
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

The government created the internet? What? LOL
"The origins of the Internet reach back to research commissioned by the United States government in the 1960s to build robust, fault-tolerant communication via computer networks. The funding of a new U.S. backbone by the National Science Foundation in the 1980s, as well as private funding for other commercial backbones, led to worldwide participation in the development of new networking technologies, and the merger of many networks." (Source)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Your most powerful tornadoes come from landfalling Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. Right?


Sometimes, but usually our biggest tornadoes are during El-Nino years when the Jet Stream is plowing over us creating perfect conditions for big tornadoes. I witnessed a at the time F3 tornado move just to my south by 2 miles over Lake Jessup in Seminole County on Feb. 22 1998. I will never forget that massive tornado being highlight by lightning strikes at 12:10am.

Link

Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes.

"The origins of the Internet reach back to research commissioned by the United States government in the 1960s to build robust, fault-tolerant communication via computer networks. The funding of a new U.S. backbone by the National Science Foundation in the 1980s, as well as private funding for other commercial backbones, led to worldwide participation in the development of new networking technologies, and the merger of many networks." (Source)

Interesting.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Most of our tornadoes are EF0 or EF1. The reason is most of our tornadoes occur from pulse type thunderstorms which can produce brief spin ups as the Jet Stream is usually to far to the north to get big tornadoes like what occurs in the Plains.

That makes sense. Thanks, Buddy!
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

The government created the internet? What? LOL


I thought Al Gore created the internet?
Breaking News Storm‏@breakingstorm1 min
6 people dead, 7 missing, about 45 taken to hospital in Texas tornadoes, Hood County spokesman says - @Reuters
674. VR46L
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I thought Al Gore created the internet?


LMAO !!!


Sounds like the big brother conspiracies sure are starting to fly about this morning


Thanks folks needed a giggle this morning ....
Quoting K8eCane:
AUSSIE where was that

I captured them from the CBS DFW live stream. Shocking live video being shown.

more photo's from that stream.













Stream >>> Here <<<
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel1 min
Per @NWSFortWorth, **preliminary** #tornado count in north Texas stands at 10.
Quoting Luisport:
Breaking News Storm‏@breakingstorm1 min
6 people dead, 7 missing, about 45 taken to hospital in Texas tornadoes, Hood County spokesman says - @Reuters


From the damage I am seeing, that number could go higher. Where a house was, is not just a clean slab.
Quoting AussieStorm:


From the damage I am seeing, that number could go higher. Where a house was, is not just a clean slab.


I would say we had a EF 4 or EF 5 tornado last night SW of Fort Worth.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I thought Al Gore created the internet?

No. You're thinking of Global Warming.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I would say we had a EF 4 or EF 5 tornado last night SW of Fort Worth.

Gotta agree. When the early light of dawn shines on those towns, the real assessment of the damage will begin--along with the heartache.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I captured them from the CBS DFW live stream. Shocking live video being shown.

more photo's from that stream.













Stream >>> Here <<<


just awful..great photos Aussie
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Gotta agree. When the early light of dawn shines on those towns, the real assessment of the damage will begin--along with the heartache.


When I saw that hard turn then I knew we were witnessing a Greensburg size tornado in progress.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

No. You're thinking of Global Warming.


Gore invented GW on the Internet.
Quoting AussieStorm:


From the damage I am seeing, that number could go higher. Where a house was, is not just a clean slab.
10 deaths now...
That line from Central TX made all the way north of Houston last night

Quoting RTSplayer:
HOW THE HELL DO I REMOVE TWC MALWARE FROM MY COMPUTER,AND WHY THE HELL DID THIS SITE PUT IT ON MY COMPUTER AGAIN (TWICE) WITHOUT MY PERMISSION?

I uninstalled the damn thing again, but I bet it comes back in a day or two.
yes im in the same boat as you,twice i got rid of it and its back again..damn shame it is,people making those damn things to mess people up.
where you see a slab where a house once stood, I believe thats a good indicator of E4 or higher
Quoting ncstorm:


just awful..great photos Aussie

I wouldn't say they are great, more like shocking and it was only a Slight day. The chopper is now flying around the same area where the most and serious damage is.
Quoting RitaEvac:
That line from Central TX made all the way north of Houston last night


Rita. Some glimmer of hope for you. Although by the looks of this you down in Galveston are not doing all too bad. Can't really say that for the rest of the state, though.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I wouldn't say they are great, more like shocking and it was only a Slight day. The chopper is now flying around the same area where the most and serious damage is.


sigh..not in the sense that its great to see the damage but great that you were able to capture them from the live stream..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


When I saw that hard turn then I knew we were witnessing a Greensburg size tornado in progress.

I'm with you. That hard right turn immediately erased any doubt in my mind that this wasn't a POWERFUL (at least EF3) and VERY wide twister.
Quoting FtMyersgal:
I thought Al Gore created the internet?
No, he didn't, of course. He never claimed to, for that matter; that's just silly and lazy ideological posturing based on an out-of-context statement he made to a TV talking head (he was asked to list some of the ways he was different from a political opponent; he responded--quite truthfully--that he was instrumental in economically and legislatively fostering the development of many of the various technologies that went into creating the internet).

Imagine that: this very forum might not exist in its present form if it weren't for the visionary work of Mr. Gore. Pretty cool, huh?
Quoting LargoFl:
yes im in the same boat as you,twice i got rid of it and its back again..damn shame it is,people making those damn things to mess people up.

I have Malwarebytes Anti-malware on my laptop. I do a quick scan once a week and a full scan once a month. Also Malware can be in advertising hence why I have adblock so I don't see any ads on any websites I visit.
Quoting ncstorm:


sigh..not in the sense that its great to see the damage but great that you were able to capture them from the live stream..

yeah, I understand that.
For what it's worth, here is the brand new Drought Monitor for this week. Hot off the press.

and this is why its stressed to go to the lowest level of your house during a tornado..from James Spann on Twitter

Quoting FtMyersgal:


I thought Al Gore created the internet?
You might be joking (or not) but there are plenty of people who believe Gore made that claim. Not true.

Origins: Despite the derisive references that continue even today, Al Gore did not claim he "invented" the Internet, nor did he say anything that could reasonably be interpreted that way. The "Al Gore said he 'invented' the Internet" put-downs were misleading, out-of-context distortions of something he said during an interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN's "Late Edition" program on 9 March 1999. When asked to describe what distinguished him from his challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination, Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey, Gore replied (in part):
"During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet. I took the initiative in moving forward a whole range of initiatives that have proven to be important to our country's economic growth and environmental protection, improvements in our educational system."
Clearly, although Gore's phrasing might have been a bit clumsy (and perhaps self-serving), he was not claiming that he "invented" the Internet (in the sense of having designed or implemented it), but that he was responsible, in an economic and legislative sense, for fostering the development the technology that we now know as the Internet. To claim that Gore was seriously trying to take credit for the "invention" of the Internet is, frankly, just silly political posturing that arose out of a close presidential campaign.

Source
Quoting ncstorm:
and this is why its stressed to go to the lowest level of your house during a tornado..from James Spann on Twitter



But sometimes even doing that isn't enough

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
what is up with this perception lately that government is supposed to be everyone's mom? How about citizens do their own research to protect THEMSELVES from storm surge. Ugh, government started as the postal service and has turned into a monster


Let them eat cake, right? You would make Marie Antoinette so proud.

You are exceptionally blessed living in a country where you have clean water, reliable electricity, and many many other things that other countries do not have. A good percentage of the world lives in abject poverty, with many not even having reliable access to electricity, let alone information resources like the internet or even a local library. Their governments don't have the luxury or desire to launch observational satellites, running weather offices, providing emergency services, or any of those other little things that entitled pampered people like yourself take for granted every day.

Stop being ignorant/hypocritical and get a clue about the world. Not everyone lives in America. If you're so sick of governments that provide you with what most would deem basic community services, move to Somalia.

Quoting AussieStorm:


But sometimes even doing that isn't enough



true..anyone know if people in this area of Texas had storm basements?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Aerial footage via @NBCDFW in Granbury, TX disconcerting. Appears to be only a slab foundation remaining on some homes. High-end damage.




http://i1287.photobucket.com/albums/a636/Aussiest orm1975/Capture1_zpsee9a7ba8.jpg



















Live stream >>> Here <<<


And to think it only took seconds to do this much damage..
Heart goes out to those folks..
And the fighting commences.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, he didn't, of course. He never claimed to, for that matter; that's just silly and lazy ideological posturing based on an out-of-context statement he made to a TV talking head (he was asked to list some of the ways he was different from a political opponent; he responded--quite truthfully--that he was instrumental in economically and legislatively fostering the development of many of the various technologies that went into creating the internet).

Imagine that: this very forum might not exist in its present form if it weren't for the visionary work of Mr. Gore. Pretty cool, huh?


Lighten up. It was just a joke :)
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Scott. Help me understand this. Florida can see tornadoes. That's not that uncommon. But is it possible for anywhere in the state to see an EF2 or greater?


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
What monster tornado this was

--Talk like Yoda you do!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Lighten up. It was just a joke :)

Even I knew you were joking, but you picked on Sheldon's best mate, so I wasn't surprised to see this reaction and the reaction of others. Some people can't take a joke. Humor isn't allows on here anymore.
Quoting ncstorm:


true..anyone know if people in this area of Texas had storm basements?


Generally speaking, no. A few might have but the vast majority don't. The ground around here is not conducive to underground construction.
Henry Margusity Fan Club
New severe t-storm warnings out for areas north of Dallas, but it's just for large hail, not tornadoes!
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Lighten up. It was just a joke :)
Oh, my bad; I guess I misinterpreted your question "I thought Al Gore created the internet?" to mean you were truly confused as to whether he'd actually done so. But now that I know it was just a joke, allow me to congratulate you on just how terrifically humorous, creative, and original it was! +10,000!

;-)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Even I knew you were joking, but you picked on Sheldon's best mate, so I wasn't surprised to see this reaction and the reaction of others. Some people can't take a joke. Humor isn't allows on here anymore.


I forgot Aussie. Thanks for reminding me
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Lighten up. It was just a joke :)


Hard to tell with some of the posters on here. There are people on here who honestly believe that global warming didn't exist until Al Gore mentioned it. :P
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Lighten up. It was just a joke :)

Too much tension this morning. What is it? Folks have no homes in Texas this morning and Folks are getting bent out of shape over a joke. The need to rush to the keyboard to log-in and defend the blog from what they feel is misinformation is LAUGHABLE in and of itself. Maybe that's their idea of a sense of humor. Who knows...
714. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

Even I knew you were joking, but you picked on Sheldon's best mate, so I wasn't surprised to see this reaction and the reaction of others. Some people can't take a joke. Humor isn't allows on here anymore.


Yeah the man who has made millions from Pushing an agenda....

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Hard to tell with some of the posters on here. There are people on here who honestly believe that global warming didn't exist until Al Gore mentioned it. :P

You'll never change everyone's mind. That is nearly impossible in a society when people are allowed to possess and share their own views.
Quoting ncstorm:


true..anyone know if people in this area of Texas had storm basements?

From what I saw via CBS DFW live stream. I would say no, as most I saw was a clean concrete slab.
Quoting AussieStorm:

From what I saw via CBS DFW live stream. I would say no, as most I saw was a clean concrete slab.

Concrete being stripped in pretty much indicative of an EF4 or greater. I guess it won't be long before we find out.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Afternoon showers will again fall in PR but the bigger story will be the next week's big rain event that is forecast for most of the Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TONIGHT
AND FRI. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIB NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY AS UPPER
LEVE TROF AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT ACTIVITY
ISN`T LIKELY TO BE AS INTENSE AS IT WAS YDAY. SHARPER DRYING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROF AND WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES.

MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PROMOTES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
CONVERGE OVR THE AREA SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH AT H5
FCST TO EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WRN CARIB WILL HELP
INDUCE A SWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH AN EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION
FCST TO CONVERGE OVR HISPANIOLA...CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY PR. OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ARND
16/16Z. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AFT 16/16Z ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ARND TJMZ IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16/21Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL AFTER 16/21Z AT
TKPK OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ESE 10 TO 15 KTS
FROM SFC UP TO 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT OVR THE WEEKEND IN MIXED
NORTHEAST SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES. TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD MAINLY OVER CARIB WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 87 77 / 40 20 20 0
STT 87 79 87 79 / 30 20 20 10


I hope I get something.

But not too confident :

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
You'll never change everyone's mind. That is nearly impossible in a society when people are allowed to possess and share their own views.
That's true. No matter how illogical, baseless, untrue, unsubstantiated, unsupported, anti-scientific, or just plain stupid those viewpoints are, our society does indeed allow people to hold them.

The trick is, of course, to prevent those with such viewpoints from being elected into positions of power; we don't seem to be having much success with that lately...
720. ARiot
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

You'll never change everyone's mind. That is nearly impossible in a society when people are allowed to possess and share their own views.


It may be more accurate to say that another way :-)

You'll never change everyone's mind. That is nearly impossible in a society when people think they are allowed to possess and share their own facts.

day 3 from the SPC



Day 4 and 5..weekend shaping up to be a bad one..
Quoting Waltanater:


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
What monster tornado this was

--Talk like Yoda you do!


I suppose this is the reason your comments never show up on here. It is easy to talk trash while online but I bet you don't have the balls to do it in person.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I suppose this is the reason your comments never show up on here. It is easy to talk trash while online but I bet you don't have the balls to do it in person.


The ones that do do not feel the need to
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's true. No matter how illogical, baseless, untrue, unsubstantiated, unsupported, anti-scientific, or just plain stupid those viewpoints are, our society does indeed allow people to hold them.

The trick is, of course, to prevent those with such viewpoints from being elected into positions of power; we don't seem to be having much success with that lately...


That particular political comment is unrelated to weather. Please move to politics blog. Yeah.
Come on peoples, put your handbags away and straighten up your skirts. Gezzzzzzzzzzzzzz

April 2013 cool & stormy for U.S.



From National Climatic Data Center.

For more, follow the link.>>> Link <<<
Good Morning All..
72 degrees with 87%rh and dew at 68..
Mostly cloudy with winds 12mph from the SSE..
Feel sorry about those affected by last nights tornados..


Beach looking ok so far..

Waltanater is just trying to disrupt the peace.A unnecessary comment from a irrelevant blogger.Keep doing your thing stormtrackerscott this isn't spelling bee/proper grammar 101.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


The ones that do do not feel the need to


"Have the balls, you don't...? Hmmm."
Quoting washingtonian115:
Waltanater is just trying to disrupt the peace.A unnecessary comment from a irrelevant blogger.Keep doing your thing stormtrackerscott this isn't spelling bee/proper grammar 101.


If it was, many of use would of been buzzed out loooooong ago.
Wow... That is some awful damage. The tornado damage appears to be at least EF4 damage and the tornado appeared to have been at least a mile wide.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Waltanater is just trying to disrupt the peace.A unnecessary comment from a irrelevant blogger.Keep doing your thing stormtrackerscott this isn't spelling bee/proper grammar 101.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I suppose this is the reason your comments never show up on here. It is easy to talk trash while online but I bet you don't have the balls to do it in person.


I agree with Washi..
StormTrackerScott I have him on ignore for a reason..
He flames and trolls too much IMO..
Let it go and move on..
Like a child he wants attention..
JMO
Q&A with Hurricane Center’s Rick Knabb

by Eliot Kleinberg

Source Link

Video Link

Posted 10:40 a.m. EST, May 8, 2013
On Wednesday morning, at the Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference in Fort Lauderdale, Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, sat down for a quick Q&A with the Post. Excerpts:

Knabb
Q: We’ve gone seven years without a hurricane. What’s your standard message to people about complacency?
A: No matter what the seasonal forecast is, no matter how long it’s been since the last time you were impacted, even you were impacted last year by some tropical weather of some kind, none of that matters for this year, because this is a new year. Every year has a unique set of storm activity and every year there is the potential for you to be severely impacted by a hurricane or even a major hurricane. We’re very vulnerable here in Florida, even though we’ve been fortunate for a while.
I make sure every year that we have the adequate insurance, including flood insurance, which isn’t part of a standard homeowners’ policy. We make sure that we have all the supplies that we need to get through the storm and potentially dealing with the aftermath. Nobody wants to be that person standing in line, waiting for desperately-needed supplies, that when they get to the front of the line, they’re out of it. You don’t want to be in that position.

You need to find out today if you live in a hurricane storm surge evacuation zone. Knowing that is a key piece of information for you to figure out what your whole preparedness plan is, whether or not you might need to evacuate, and if so, where you’re going to go; how you’re going to get there.
Q: Will the federal sequester situation leave us with furloughs at either the hurricane center or local weather offices when a storm’s threatening?
A: We will absolutely deliver on our mission this year. Even if the furloughs that are currently being discussed were to happen, and that’s not a guarantee at the moment that they will, but then if a significant weather event like a storm or a hurricane is upon is, furloughs can be canceled in an emergency situation. So there is no way we are going to fail to deliver in our mission this year.
Q: When a storm’s threatening, a lot of people leave who really shouldn’t.
A: We want the right people evacuating and the right people not evacuating. “Run from the water and hide from the wind.” Storm surge is the primary reason that most people would ever be told to evacuate There are other reasons; you live in a mobile home or high-rise or from any structure where you’re not going to be safe from the wind. (But) the idea is that you evacuate areas that are prone to flooding. You can evacuate a few miles, not tens or hundreds of miles necessarily, because what often happens is you find that that long evacuation procedure is very, very, difficult, if not dangerous, because if you get stuck on the road and can’t find a place to stay, or if you later feel the effects of the storm farther up the state where you thought you were getting away from it, you probably realize that it wasn’t worth it to go this far.
Q: What are you doing to improve your intensity forecasts?
A: We need to remind ourselves we haven’t complete solved the track forecast problem. Those tracks are not pefect yet, and they can be off by quite a bit. But intensity forecasting has been the harder nut to crack. We havent’ improved on those forecast errors for many, many, years. We’re in the middle of this very ambitious initative, the hurricane forecast improvement program, where
people who really know how to develop the next generation of hurricane models are working on this. We’re looking on the input of that in real time. We have some early indications that those models… might be able to improve intensity forecasting in future years. But we’re not there yet. It’s still a research problem, a development problem, and it’s going to still be the case for quite a while that we have to plan for something a little stronger than we’re exactly forecasting because of the chance of intensification.
Q: You’re a victim of your success. People now expect you to be exact about where a storm’s going to hit and where its effects will be. Last year we had a storm 200 miles out in the Gulf of Mexico that dropped 17 inches of rain on Palm Beach County.
A: When folks focus too much on the forecast track or look at the model tracks, you’re not seeing the whole picture. We’re really trying to move more toward forecasting and warning for specific and individual hazards and where those hazards have the greatest chance of being problematic or dangerous or even deadly. So that means you’re starting to see more and more focus from us on where can the strongest winds occur, which can be outside the forecast cone. We’re moving toward the storm surge watch and warning by 2015. The category, the exact tract, the status of the storm; all of these things don’t tell you what you are going to experience where you live.
Quoting VR46L:


Yeah the man who has made millions from Pushing an agenda....

But of course you're just joking, right, like everyone else this morning, so we don't need to mention that Gore's actions have nothing to do with whether CC\AGW is real or not?
I am glad they are going forth with the storm surge watch and warning system by 2015. I think it's a great idea and the public might pay a little more attention to the warning and what a storm surge actually is. I think that can serve to be educational to the public.
RE: Extreme Weather Whiplash: 106° in Iowa on the Heels of Record May Snows

Why aren't these record temps listed on your "Record Extremes" map?
Quoting ncstorm:


true..anyone know if people in this area of Texas had storm basements?


In this part of Texas basements are very uncommon. The reason is due to the soil, it is basically clay. It contracts and expands with temperature and moisture levels on the order of a foot or more in a typical year. The pressure from this can cause basement walls to cave. They can be built, but it costs at least an extra $20000+ as they surround the basement with a sand like barrier to handle the changes in the ground.
Palm Beach County residents:
PBC DART
Everyone with a smartphone should download this app.
Available from Google Play or iTunes stores.

* Evacuation tool
* Directions to shelters
* Report damage
* Upload pictures
* Open gas stations, grocery stores

Update for this app is scheduled for June 1st.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I am glad they are going forth with the storm surge watch and warning system by 2015. I think it's a great idea and the public might pay a little more attention to the warning and what a storm surge actually is. I think that can serve to be educational to the public.
Ike and Sandy will always come to mind.I remember waking up on the morning of September 14 and seeing those horrific waves crashing along the wall.Scary indeed.

BTW I see my hypothesis came true last year as well..

SOMETHING BAD ALWAYS HAPPENS IN A LEAP YEAR.
The last few runs of the GFS have been very consistent in suggesting the Upper Plains and Midwest may be undergoing a pattern change late in the forecast run.

Also notice you can barely make out the state of Florida beneath the shades of orange and red.

Quoting Seattleite:


In this part of Texas basements are very uncommon. The reason is due to the soil, it is basically clay. It contracts and expands with temperature and moisture levels on the order of a foot or more in a typical year. The pressure from this can cause basement walls to cave. They can be built, but it costs at least an extra $20000+ as they surround the basement with a sand like barrier to handle the changes in the ground.
Florida also has this no basement situation, although the soil problem is different. And then there are the thousands of tornado magnets, aka mobile homes.


@spann James Spann 2m
The wedge entering Cleburne, TX. Visible in a lightning strike, it appeared to be multi-vortex. From JR Hehnly
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ike and Sandy will always come to mind.I remember waking up on the morning of September 14 and seeing those horrific waves crashing along the wall.Scary indeed.

BTW I see my hypothesis came true last year as well..

SOMETHING BAD ALWAYS HAPPENS IN A LEAP YEAR.
Yeah, it looks like something ALWAYS disrupts the peace! ;)
Quoting FLwolverine:
Florida also has this no basement situation, although the soil problem is different. And then there are the thousands of tornado magnets, aka mobile homes.


Oh yes, got to love that sandy soil and high water table! The good news is that at least most tornadoes in FL are relatively weak, and are not likely to reduce your house to a concrete slab. All I can say, is after living in FL during TS Fay, it's amazing that the soil supports as many structures as it does now, let alone basements.
and there is always something to keep the peace as well
Those that died yesterday evening were the first to die from tornadoes in Texas since 2007.
may they rest in peace
Quoting AussieStorm:


@spann James Spann 2m
The wedge entering Cleburne, TX. Visible in a lightning strike, it appeared to be multi-vortex. From JR Hehnly

Aussie ~ You've always had a knack for linking intriguing, relevant pictures to the blog. I enjoy your posts. Keep up the good work!
well Florida can get tornado's usually with a land falling tropical system, then again we do get some when a water spout comes on land, usually turning into a weak tornado that doesnt last too long..the west and midwest usually get those real big strong ones like what happened in texas last night...geez the pics on the news are simply awful huh
Palm Beach County residents:



Evernote notebook: 'HURRICANE PROTOCOL'
(for pc, mac, tablet or smartphone)

Our hurricane guide. I picked the name 'cause I thought it was fancy.
Always a work in progress. Not for everyone. Just thought I'd share it in case someone might find it useful. Tailored for the area. Has many links.

Downloading the (free) Evernote app is not required to view the HP guide - though it is a better view if you do.
Comments, suggestions & constructive criticism welcome.
Thoughts this morning:
~Hold onto each other in N TX. Sorry for your losses.

~Relevant (to me) hindsight: Best to equate % risk with potential tornado numbers, not potential tornado strength. Strengthwise, Southern Plains tornadoes in May... well, they are what they are.

~Cast concrete EF5-rated above ground shelters exist and are available but they are not cheap.

~Official track and strength reports on the May 15, 2013 north Texas tornadoes will surface within a couple days and will be updated as NWS surveys are completed. Results of any service assessment will come several weeks or months down the road.

~Anyone interested in what is known about tropical cyclone tornadoes might want to read Roger Edwards' study entitled "Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: A review of knowledge and prediction." This is linked at the bottom of the SPC main page. Was also linked a couple days ago on the NHC Facebook page.

www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/edwards/ejssmtct.pd f
(Add: If you cut and paste, omit space between d and f. For some reason, wu will not allow me to remove the space.)

Live Link to Edwards' paper

~Might be best to keep your blog comment filter on "Show All." Otherwise you might see mostly echoes of speculation and might miss balance that has been summarily "-"ed away.
TA13, Not trying to take credit from the image you posted about the Gransbury tornado, but this brighter picture of it makes it even more frightening




Edit: Fixed Image
Quoting AussieStorm:
Come on peoples, put your handbags away and straighten up your skirts. Gezzzzzzzzzzzzzz

April 2013 cool & stormy for U.S.



From National Climatic Data Center.

For more, follow the link.>>> Link <<<


it aint us women folk on here arguing..its always the men..LOL
Mahasen
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
TA13, Not trying to take credit from the image you posted about the Gransbury tornado, but this brighter picture of it makes it even more frightening

img src="">

amazing pic there, geez you hear a noise, you look out your window and bamm it hits you..geez,what can you do but pray you live to see another day..hardly any time to get the family into the car and zoom away..and where do you go, its dark, the winds are howling,i cannot imagine living there when this does happen..from time to time..me i'll take the occasional tropical system anyday..
Quoting ncstorm:


it aint us women folk on here arguing..its always the men..LOL
Washington 115 will banter a bit depending on what its about..:)
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
TA13, Not trying to take credit from the image you posted about the Gransbury tornado, but this brighter picture of it makes it even more frightening

img src="">



those are the people who originally posted the image..he said he posted it twice on twitter last night stating it wasnt his image..
Quoting ncstorm:


those are the people who originally posted the image..he said he posted it twice on twitter last night stating it wasnt his image..


I know, just giving credit for him posting on the blog first
Quoting hydrus:
Mahasen



hmmmm did TS ALVIN open up overe night it sure dos not look like a TS any more

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING..BUT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WEST OF A JACKSBORO
TO MINERAL WELLS TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY.

$$

HAMPSHIRE
Quoting mikatnight:
Palm Beach County residents:



Evernote notebook: 'HURRICANE PROTOCOL'
(for pc, mac, tablet or smartphone)

Our hurricane guide. I picked the name 'cause I thought it was fancy.
Always a work in progress. Not for everyone. Just thought I'd share it in case someone might find it useful. Tailored for the area. Has many links.

Downloading the (free) Evernote app is not required to view the HP guide - though it is a better view if you do.
Comments, suggestions & constructive criticism welcome.


Thanks for posting mikatnight..
I can't seem to be able to view the notebook you refer to but I am able to view previous notebook entries..
Gets 4 out of 5 stars from me.. :)
This is high end damage. Upper range of EF4.

Link
Quoting Tazmanian:



hmmmm did TS ALVIN open up overe night it sure dos not look like a TS any more


It is being sheared from the west. Probs will continue to weaken from here if the shear doesnt stop.

I dont think it will become a hurricane under these conditions.
looks like ALVIN has open up on in two a wave i dont even no if it has a close low any more
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like ALVIN has open up on in two a wave i dont even no if it has a close low any more


looks like a bunch of disorganized storms to me now.

Alvin has too high of a pressure to continue, 1010MB...
Quoting Tazmanian:



hmmmm did TS ALVIN open up overe night it sure dos not look like a TS any more
It appears that there is another low to Alvins west. That may be affecting the formation stage a bit.
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like ALVIN has open up on in two a wave i dont even no if it has a close low any more


Yes, it seems to be embedded again in the ITCZ
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for posting mikatnight..
I can't seem to be able to view the notebook you refer to but I am able to view previous notebook entries..
Gets 4 out of 5 stars from me.. :)


hmmmm. Thanks for letting me know. Links work on my end. Anybody else have a problem? I'll try getting my wife to check it from her pc at work.
Actually, alvin looks like it got ripped in half, 2 different rotation directions.

thanks!
Quoting hydrus:
It appears that there is another low to Alvins west. That may be affecting the formation stage a bit.


yea, it looks like it split into 2 lows.
Quoting hydrus:


Havent seen something like that in a long time.
778. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:


Looks like it did on Tuesday ! before it was a TD ..
really looks like 2 seperate storms on TWC.

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel15 s
Preliminary rating on Granbury, TX #tornado: EF4, via @NWSFortWorth. Survey continues.
I'm getting the impression that Alvin will not get as intense as initially forecasted.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I'm getting the impression that Alvin will not get as intense as initially forecasted.


I think it might hit 60-65 MPH...
the east side of the storm is actually moving in the exact opposite direction that was forcasted, maybe we will see it go back into warm water and restrengthen???
784. VR46L
Alvin, Not destined long for this world !

Wall of shear awaits its every move

Models also predict that it will turn around for a day or so before returning to the forcasted path, unlike yesterday...

Quoting Torito:


I think it might hit 60-65 MPH...

Seems plausible. He might make a run at a minimal (category 1) cane. I am going with you and predict he'll fall a tad short of reaching hurricane status.
Quoting VR46L:
Alvin, Not destined long for this world !

Wall of shear awaits its every move


Definitely his greatest hurdle.
Quoting Luisport:
The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel15 s
Preliminary rating on Granbury, TX #tornado: EF4, via @NWSFortWorth. Survey continues.



EF4 all ready? that means they could vary well find some EF5 damges if they are still looking
Alvin forcasted to only last 120 more hours.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161432
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

ALVIN APPEARS TO HAVE DEGRADED IN STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY SEPARATING FROM THE ITCZ...AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LIKELY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALVIN
COULD BE A BIT WEAKER.

ALTHOUGH THE HISTORICALLY TWO BEST GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND
ECMWF...HAVE HAD SOME DISAGREEMENT ON ALVIN...EACH APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN RIGHT TO SOME DEGREE. THE GFS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
GENESIS...BUT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE BEEN RIGHT THAT ALVIN WOULD NOT
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT 15 TO 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
AFFECT ALVIN DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND NEITHER OF THE
STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO
BE DWINDLING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE
INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MORE PRONOUNCED INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND BY DAY
3...AND ALVIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED...THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH
THE ASSUMPTION THAT LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ON STEERING. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SPEED
DISCREPANCY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 9.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 9.9N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 10.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 11.2N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 11.6N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 13.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Quoting AussieStorm:

Even I knew you were joking, but you picked on Sheldon's best mate, so I wasn't surprised to see this reaction and the reaction of others. Some people can't take a joke. Humor isn't allows on here anymore.


Or maybe after 13 years of politically biased people telling the same "joke", it has become more than stale...

I would say humor is allowed on here... but so are facts. I doubted the claims but never cared to look up the facts on the subject. Thanks to those who provided clarity and the real story

ETA: Thanks for the pics today aussie. I figured I would find better quality/more here than on CNN or any other news website, and you came through!
Quoting Tazmanian:



EF4 all ready? that means they could vary well find some EF5 damges if they are still looking

That's actually a very good possibility, based on areal images past history. Many times with the most intense tornadoes, the worst damage isn't surveyed right away because the destruction of that area renders it inaccessible for a time.
Quoting Torito:
Alvin forcasted to only last 120 more hours.

CIRCULATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY SEPARATING FROM THE ITCZ...

Ha!
793. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:

Ha!


I think You , Pcola and I were in the same boat yesterday ... maybe should not have been called a TS seeing it never got away from the ITCZ

Edit ..Thank Torita for posting that !
Quoting VR46L:


I think You , Pcola and I were in the same boat yesterday ... maybe should not have been called a TS seeing it never got away from the ITCZ


Indeed, we were. But I'm too humble to stress it, lol.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
796. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


Indeed, we were. But I'm too humble to stress it, lol.


It was in the imagery ... but ... LOL
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Scott. Help me understand this. Florida can see tornadoes. That's not that uncommon. But is it possible for anywhere in the state to see an EF2 or greater?


Andrew was an EF-3
Quoting mikatnight:
Palm Beach County residents:



Evernote notebook: 'HURRICANE PROTOCOL'
(for pc, mac, tablet or smartphone)

Our hurricane guide. I picked the name 'cause I thought it was fancy.
Always a work in progress. Not for everyone. Just thought I'd share it in case someone might find it useful. Tailored for the area. Has many links.

Downloading the (free) Evernote app is not required to view the HP guide - though it is a better view if you do.
Comments, suggestions & constructive criticism welcome.


Mikatnight,
Thank You! for your efforts & sharing.
Very nicely done and lots of helpful lists & links.

Quick suggestion -
On your WU Blog, add a permanent link to your Protocol Notebook.
Maybe even some of the info into a Welcome Post for your blog.

Linkage here at WU will help index your hurricane preparedness info into search engines like Google and Bing.
During season when people are in need & scouring the web, your notebook and it's handy, valuable tips will surface very high in search results. Search engines will even specifically target mobile users in the WPB and Florida regions based on your notebook's concise content.
Again KUDOS! on a Great Job!

Fran
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Seems plausible. He might make a run at a minimal (category 1) cane. I am going with you and predict he'll fall a tad short of reaching hurricane status.


It needs to go backwards like the model shows breifly for it to gain some extra strength to have a shot at hurricane strength.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Andrew was an EF-3
with EF4 tendencies....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is high end damage. Upper range of EF4.

Link

Not necessarily. Even for the destruction and slabbing of a well-constructed single family home, the lower bound of expected wind speeds is 165mph, which as at the top of the EF3 wind-speed range. We do not know how the house in that picture was constructed based on a picture.

Pictures alone will give you ballpark... is this weak, strong, violent... but you have to go by how well the structure was built to make tweaks to the expected windspeed before determining a rating. There are examples of buildings completely destroyed that only made it to the EF2-3 range due to construction. Several candidates for EF5 damage in the Tuscaloosa tornado barely made EF4 due to their construction.
Quoting hydrus:
Washington 115 will banter a bit depending on what its about..:)


Duck!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


When I saw that hard turn then I knew we were witnessing a Greensburg size tornado in progress.

A large percentage of supercells make right-turns. A smaller percentage of supercells produce a tornado. A very very small percentage of that small percentage of tornadoes ends up being a strong-to-violent tornado.
Based upon the supercell acting in a way that supercells typically do, you did not know that it was going to produce a "Greensburg-sized/EF5/etc" tornado.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

A large percentage of supercells make right-turns. A smaller percentage of supercells produce a tornado. A very very small percentage of that small percentage of tornadoes ends up being a strong-to-violent tornado.
Based upon the supercell acting in a way that supercells typically do, you did not know that it was going to produce a "Greensburg-sized/EF5/etc" tornado.

I don't know if this is a normal behavior with violent tornadoes, but I think he was refrencing the abrupt left turn the velocity couplet took in the vicinity of Cleburne, which is not unlike the type of turn the Greensburg tornado took at the end of its track.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

I don't know if this is a normal behavior with violent tornadoes, but I think he was refrencing the abrupt left turn the velocity couplet took in the vicinity of Cleburne, which is not unlike the type of turn the Greensburg tornado took at the end of its track.


Perhaps he was referring to a left turn and not a right turn, but even then, there is not strong evidence than the occlusion phase of the tornadic circulation is a predecessor or predictor of a tornado being "Greensburg-sized." Nor is there always a correlation between a tornado being "Greensburg-sized" and it's final damage rating.