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Mahasen not Strengthening; Eastern Pacific's First Tropical Depression Forming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:34 PM GMT on May 15, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Mahasen in the Bay of Bengal continues to show little change as it steams north-northeastward at 14 mph towards the Bangladesh coast just north of the border with Myanmar. Though the storm is no longer expected to reach hurricane strength, Mahasen's storm surge and heavy rains represent a significant threat to people living in low-lying areas along the Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts. At least 70,000 people have been asked to evacuate, and a boat carrying refugees capsized on Monday, killing eight and leaving 50 missing. The ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths on the Bangladeshi coast, and Mahasen is expected to bring a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet (1 - 1.5 meters) to the Bangladesh coast on Thursday, according to the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Delhi, India. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department is warning of a 5 - 7 foot (2 meter) storm surge for their coastal districts. The greatest storm surge will occur to the right of where the center crosses the coast, in northern Myanmar. The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology is warning of a 6 - 10 foot (2 - 3 meter) storm surge there. Accompanying the surge will be torrential rains of 3 - 7 inches that have the potential to cause dangerous flooding. At least seven people have been killed in Sri Lanka due to landslides triggered by Mahasen's heavy rains.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 07:45 UTC Wednesday May 15, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. The storm appears disorganized due to wind shear keeping the heavy thunderstorms to the west of the center. Image credit: NASA.

The 10 am EDT Wednesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds near 50 mph. Satellite loops show that Mahasen continues to struggle with wind shear. The low-level circulation center has become exposed to view several times, with an intense area of thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops just to the west of the center. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. Wind shear remains a moderate 10 - 15 knots, but Mahasen is now over cooler waters with a much reduced total heat content, and it appears unlikely that the storm will change much in intensity before landfall. Landfall is expected to occur near 18 UTC on Thursday.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 12 UTC May 14, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 7" are expected along a wide swath of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.


Figure 3. Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal. The shallow waters of the Continental Shelf (mostly shallower than 200 meters) are shaded whitish-grey. From Kolkata, India to Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, the ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths. Fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar, bringing catastrophic storm surges. Image credit: geomapapp.org.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning


Figure 4. Latest satellite image of Invest 90E.

First tropical depression of the year forming in the Eastern Pacific
The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15 (today!), and Mother Nature is playing along with this idea. The first "Invest" of the year, Invest 90E, has become well-organized on satellite loops, and NHC has set in motion the process to name this system Tropical Depression One-E (or possibly Tropical Storm Alvin) at 11 am EDT. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next five days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and it is possible that this could become Hurricane Alvin late this week. The storm is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas.

I'll have a new post late this morning or early this afternoon on yesterday's remarkable heat wave in the Midwest. Can you believe 106° in Iowa and 108° in Nebraska, after unprecedented May snows were falling less than two weeks ago? Unbelievable!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 08N103W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT
1005 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
INTO A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF THE LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 07N92W TO
THE LOW PRES NEAR 08N103W TO 08N113W TO 07N123W THEN TRANSITIONS
TO AN ITCZ AXIS W OF 07N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 03N TO 07N E OF
81W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W
OF 110W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT
COVER THIS AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND LOW NEAR
08N103W MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
PULSE TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.
RESIDUAL SWELL TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS N-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS LOW PRES
OVER INTERIOR COLOMBIA DEEPENS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

N-NW SWELL TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL SWEEP S OF 30N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W TONIGHT...
AND PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLVVVVIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!
THREE tropical blog entries in a row. Am I really seeing this???????????
Thanks Dr Masters. What a way to start the EPAC season wih this bang!
Thanks Doc!
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
THREE tropical blog entries in a row. Am I really seeing this???????????


And no AGW mentioned, I may add.
Thanks Doc!!!
Quoting FunnelVortex:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLVVVVIIIIIIIIIIIIII IN NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!




was that needed ????




like I been saying some of you act like little 3 year olds ingnoring the ones that act like 3 year olds on here make this blog a march better place
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
THREE tropical blog entries in a row. Am I really seeing this???????????


It's been five in row.

Jeff Masters
Thanks a lot, Dr. Masters. We only can hope that the impacts of Mahasen won't be as bad as with former cyclones, but the news aren't that encouraging.
Here is the BBC weather video on Mahasen from today.
Quoting JeffMasters:


It's been five in row.

Jeff Masters

Oh! My bad! Five then. Well keep it up, Sir. Well done!
Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
Mahansen will be trouble anyway way you slice it..
Just as you said..
Already lives have been lost..
01E looks interesting..
Will be looking forward to the upcoming blog on the heat wave..
Thanks again..
Quoting FunnelVortex:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLVVVVIIIIIIIIIIIIII IN NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!


Gosh It don't take alot to get ya excited...

But a Fish storm is a cool start to the season !
Quoting JeffMasters:
I'll have a new post late this morning or early this afternoon on yesterday's remarkable heat wave in the Midwest. Can you believe 106° in Iowa and 108° in Nebraska, after unprecedented May snows were falling less than two weeks ago? Unbelievable!
That is indeed unbelievable--and, as such, I look forward to the new post...
Quoting JeffMasters:


It's been five in row.

Jeff Masters


He did one on a friday too!! LOL..thanks Dr. Masters..very much appreciated for all you do!

ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 130515120000
2013051512
7.8 258.0
9.5 250.9
200
8.0 256.9
151330
1305151321
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 151330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 102.0W TO 9.5N 109.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 103.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 161330Z.
//
9013051218 63N 927W 15
9013051300 64N 936W 15
9013051306 65N 944W 20
9013051312 67N 952W 20
9013051318 69N 959W 20
9013051400 70N 968W 25
9013051406 71N 977W 25
9013051412 72N 987W 25
9013051418 74N 998W 25
9013051500 76N1010W 25
9013051506 78N1023W 25
9013051512 80N1031W 30
NNNN

Guess it's hurricane season (for the EPAC anyways)!
Thanks Dr. My wish came through with Alvin today....
Thanks Doc.Can't wait for the ATLANTIC to get heated up.
T.C.F.A.
90E/INV/XX

Quoting Neapolitan:
That is indeed unbelievable--and, as such, I look forward to the new post...

Is that weather or climate?
thanks for the 5 updated tropical blogs doc

hehehehe
EPAC season is obviously going to be the year of the "uhh?"

BARBARA BAR- BRUH
DALILA DAH LY- LAH
LORENA LOW RAY- NA
NARDA NAHR- DUH
PRISCILLA PRIH SIH- LUH
SONIA SOHN- YAH
VELMA VELL- MUH
XINA ZEE- NAH
ZELDA ZEL- DAH
Quoting Torito:
It is not a TD yet....


quote from the NHC.

There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific at this time.



It is a TD...NHC takes a little while to update their maps


Quoting Torito:
if this thing gets to TS strength or higher, it would still be considered a preseason storm, as it was declared 90E 2 days ago,correct?


No it will not be considered pre-season as it was just clasified a TD, invests dont count in that respect
Do I spy a new cloud of interest entering the EPAC ...

Rutgers IR enhanced



My numbers for the EPAC season are 18/10/5.
A good time for everyone to be reminded:

This README describes the sub-directory structure and file layout / format
for ATCF realtime database files. These files contain forecast guidance,
along with position and intensity estimates of Tropical and Subtropical
Cyclones. The data are provided "as-is" in a realtime automated fashion;
consequently, the users of the data are REQUIRED to perform quality control
of the data prior to use since there is a potential for errors within the
files.

Users are also cautioned that the data in these files are subject to
frequent revisions and can differ from information issued in official NHC
products.



Link
I think it will get named too.
2013 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
01E.ONE

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean
01B.MAHASEN

Southern Hemisphere
Looking good

No real surprise.
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren
I beat TW13 to a renumber. Today is going to be a good day.
Quoting Tazmanian:




was that needed ????




like I been saying some of you act like little 3 year olds ingnoring the ones that act like 3 year olds on here make this blog a march better place

Or we could ignore you and make it a better place. Either way we win. LOL Just kidding Taz. Luv ya bud



I see we don't have Alvin just yet.

TXPZ21 KNES 151224
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 15/1145Z

C. 8.1N

D. 103.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON 0906Z TRMM IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN 37 GHZ DATA WITH A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
JUST EAST OF THE ESTIMATED POSITION
. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE
LAST 2 HOURS. 4/10 BROKEN BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5 BUT THE BANDING
FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY






Quoting CybrTeddy:
I beat TW13 to a renumber. Today is going to be a good day.



I think your late some one else posted that in the other blog
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No real surprise.
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren

It was renumbered about two and a half hours ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Or we could ignore you and make it a better place. Either way we win. LOL



I see we don't have Alvin just yet.

TXPZ21 KNES 151224
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 15/1145Z

C. 8.1N

D. 103.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON 0906Z TRMM IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN 37 GHZ DATA WITH A SMALL AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
JUST EAST OF THE ESTIMATED POSITION
. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE
LAST 2 HOURS. 4/10 BROKEN BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5 BUT THE BANDING
FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY








Yeah I dont see it yet either.. but is coming close


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was renumbered about two and a half hours ago.


Wow, I'm not in my best form today.

Guess it's only Atlantic systems that get 20 reposts for a number.
If anyone has enough time. The final assessment report for Hurricane Sandy has been released by NOAA/NWS. 66 pages(pdf) >>>> Here <<<<

Ah, here is a map which shows exactily where those refugee camps, being threatened by Mahasen, are located (yellow dots).
Source BBC with enlarged pics
Quoting Tazmanian:



I think your late some one else posted that in the other blog

I didn't know that. I had no idea it had been re-numbered. So thanks CybrTeddy for posting.
Quoting barbamz:

Ah, here is a map which shows exactily where those refugee camps, being threatened by Mahasen, are located (yellow dots).
Source BBC with enlarged pics


Oh Gosh, they are going to be on the bad side. I hope they evacuate them all in time, But, to where?
hi guys....so whats up with alvin?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Thanks,Doc!!...Like i said couple days ago,Alvin appears to be in time for may 15...BTW GFS is the only enthusiastic with him.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hi guys....so whats up with alvin?


We don't have Alvin yet only have TD 01.
Quoting Tazmanian:



I think your late some one else posted that in the other blog


See, I knew you could do it...
T.C.F.A.
01E/INV/XX

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS RIGHT
ON CUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Alvin called to be Hurricane!!!

Quoting JeffMasters:


It's been five in row.

Jeff Masters
SNAP!
Quoting AussieStorm:


Oh Gosh, they are going to be on the bad side. I hope they evacuate them all in time, But, to where?


Yes, the bad side unfortunately; I've realized it too with this map. Most of the refugees resist evacuation because they distrust the authorities (I've sent a link somewhere in the last blog). Otherwise preparations seem to go on with big effort:

CNN Video report: Bangladesh, Myanmar prepare for arrival of Cyclone Mahasen

Edit: And here a new BBC report.
The national hurricane center has number the tropical depression in the eastern pacific TD-1-E.
FIRST TROPICAL WAVE of 2013 introduced at 12z Surface Analysis in MDR.

Is a low latitude and low amplitude one.




Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hi guys....so whats up with alvin?



we don't have Alvin its TD 1E
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
My numbers for the EPAC season are 18/10/5.


I'll note that change. I started a list awhile back and you said 17/9/4
T.C.F.A.
01E/TD/XX/XX

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
01E/INV/XX



I like your triple play format....
Yay!







More than 50% chance that this TD will become at least a cat 1 hurricane in the near future.

Pretty exciting we got the very first tropical depression from the first invest of Pacific season. Maybe the first tropical storm and first hurricane of Pacific season as well? We'll see. I'm pretty surprised NHC got TD-One-E going as strong as Category 1 storm.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FIRST TROPICAL WAVE of 2013 introduced at 12z Surface Analysis in MDR.

Is a low latitude and low amplitude one.




Link


Wow,what a May 15,first TC in EPAC and first Tropical Wave introduced in Atlantic.See post #55.
Quoting Tazmanian:



we don't have Alvin its TD 1E


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?
Quoting Dakster:


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?


probs within 2 days...
The storm improved so much in the last 6 hours...
Quoting Dakster:


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?




when the NHC is ready too name then then you will no in tell then its TD1E
Quoting Torito:


probs within 2 days...


Hopefully it doesn't cause as much mischief as the cartoon Alvin does.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Pretty exciting we got the very first tropical depression from the first invest of Pacific season. Maybe the first tropical storm and first hurricane of Pacific season as well? We'll see. I'm pretty surprised NHC got TD-One-E going as strong as Category 1 storm.


There have been 5 May hurricanes in the eastern Pacific since 2000 (two majors), but only 3 May hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1900 (one major).
Quoting AussieStorm:


We don't have Alvin yet only have TD 01.


Oh....and where are the chipmunks?
Quoting Dakster:


Hopefully it doesn't cause as much mischief as the cartoon Alvin does.


Yea, i dont like the model runs for this storm either..
Quoting Dakster:


Taz, do you kno wwhen we will get Alvin?


Here is a good answer to that question...


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS RIGHT
ON CUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


I wounder if we could see 91E in a few days
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151441
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Welcome TD1E, soon to be Alvin - Now be a good boy and stay off shore.
Quoting Dakster:
Welcome Alvin - Now be a good boy and stay off shore.




we do not have Alvin

Mahasen. I think the eye is in the southern part of the black-grey mass.
Nasty weather may be trying to form here...



I dont like the models continuing to move towards the united states..



This proton event is piking up quikly!
This storm is the first to be in this place at this time. (in recorded history, anyways...)

Hamweather's exclusive track map.



NOGAPS actually is with the other models instead of being way off like usual...
Our first tropical wave (of many).
Don't know if this has been posted yet

Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction


A little known fact is that the source of most weather forecasts delivered on your TV news and smartphones are two supercomputers housed in Reston, Va. and Orlando, Fl. An infusion of funding into the National Weather Service from Hurricane Sandy relief legislation promises to facilitate massive upgrades to these machines that may dramatically improve local, national, and global weather forecasts.

“This is a breakthrough moment for the National Weather Service and the entire U.S. weather enterprise in terms of positioning itself with the computing capacity and more sophisticated models we’ve all been waiting for,” said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service.

Last year, criticism began to emerge concerning the inferior accuracy of the NWS’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model – run on earlier versions of the supercomputers – compared to the model run at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) based in the United Kingdom. The GFS and ECMWF models are, by far, the most heavily relied on by meteorologists around the world for forecasting.
Hurricane Season is here! :)

TD-1E now has wind speeds of 37mph.... Getting close to TS status, might see NHC change it to TS Alvin when they issue new information at 2:00 EST.
Well guys, I'm going to hit the hay. Maybe I'll wake up to Alvin, and maybe not. I have the people of Eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, I know there will be deaths, I just hope it says low.



UN OCHA Flash Update 4, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

A red Storm Alert remains in effect for Tropical Cyclone Mahasen which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The cyclone does appear to have weakened and it is has been downgraded to a category-1 cyclone. It is expected to reach land now early on Friday morning (17 May). In its current path the cyclone is expected to hit north of Chittagong, Bangladesh but could, depending on its final trajectory, bring life threatening conditions for 8.2 million people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The highest impact, tidal surge and rainfall predictions are for the Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar areas of Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, where the Government raised the signal level to 4 (of 6) yesterday, a preparedness meeting were held in Dhaka, as well as all of the 14 District Committees. The Government has allocated resources towards food (100 MT of rice) and cash payments (100,000 BDT) at the field level per district.

District Committees have been advised to treat all public buildings as cyclone shelters, including some private building such as hotels. Private owners will be compensated if necessary. Around 40 water treatment plants are ready to be mobilised to the potential affected areas. The Armed Forces, under the Prime Minister’s Office have established a coordination and information cell in preparation, and the Air Force is on call ready for food distribution drops. Of particular concern are the hard-to-reach areas, especially island communities. The Director General of the Department of Disaster Management briefed humanitarian agencies and told them refugees from Myanmar around Cox’s Bazaar are located on higher ground, and therefore less at risk of being affected. He confirmed that assistance would be provided equally without discrimination.

Humanitarian agencies in Bangladesh updated the Government on their preparedness plans. While the Government hasn’t requested assistance from the international community, clusters have been working with the Government to ensure complementary efforts. All clusters are reviewing and/or revising their contingency plans with input from all cluster members, updating stocks and pre-positioning supplies in at-risk locations such as Chittagong.

In Myanmar, relocation and evacuation efforts according to the Government's plan are underway. As part of stage-1, the plan is to move 38,000 IDPs yesterday and today (14 May). It is unclear how many people have been relocated. Teams from humanitarian agencies have been monitoring the relocation efforts. Some IDPs are reluctant to relocate and some communities have refused to use military vehicles or to shelter in military barracks. Discussions between Government and communities in Sittwe are ongoing to negotiate alternative sites. The Government agrees that relocations are to be done in consultation with the IDPs. Muslim leaders have issued a statement encouraging people to cooperate with authorities.

Humanitarian agencies are keen to understand what the triggers are for starting stage-2 of the evacuation plan which involves moving 100,000 IDPs. In Sittwe, the University will be used for stage-2 relocations.

Last night, seven boats with IDPs from the Pauktaw camp Nget Chaung, were moving to other camps in advance of the storm. One of the boats hit some rocks and capsized. It is understood that 100 IDPs were on the boats and 58 remain missing. This has now been confirmed by the Government. The Government will provide boats for the relocation of other IDPs in Pauktaw. The UN is calling for search and rescue capabilities to be assessed.

In Maungdaw, in northern Rakhine State, relocations are proceeding more slowly than in other locations. A total of 64 villages are to be relocated. Evacuations began on 13 May and the Government estimates that the majority will be moved by 15 May. The Planning Minister has told humanitarian agencies that the Government will not allow anyone to die in the cyclone, and that assistance must be provided equally to all affected people. Personal belongings are not being moved with the IDPs. The Government is informing villagers through multiple channels such as loudspeakers, the use of yellow flags, and leaflets. The Government has invited agencies to visit the relocation sites to assess their suitability and to help inform communities of the process. The shelter cluster coordinator has also arrived in Maungdaw to support operations.

In Kyaukhpyu, relocation has not yet started, however the site has been identified.

Humanitarian agencies responding as clusters in the areas of health, protection, shelter, food security, education and, water and sanitation have all made available staff that can deploy for response and assessments. Stock has been prepositioned such as medical supplies, tents and food. The Ministry of Health and the heath cluster have deployed 10 mobile teams to Sittwe and activated its emergency plan.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Well guys, I'm going to hit the hay. Maybe I'll wake up to Alvin, and maybe not. I have the people of Eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, I know there will be deaths, I just hope it says low.



UN OCHA Flash Update 4, Cyclone Mahasen, Bangladesh and Myanmar

A red Storm Alert remains in effect for Tropical Cyclone Mahasen which is currently moving across the Indian Ocean towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The cyclone does appear to have weakened and it is has been downgraded to a category-1 cyclone. It is expected to reach land now early on Friday morning (17 May). In its current path the cyclone is expected to hit north of Chittagong, Bangladesh but could, depending on its final trajectory, bring life threatening conditions for 8.2 million people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The highest impact, tidal surge and rainfall predictions are for the Chittagong and Cox's Bazaar areas of Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, where the Government raised the signal level to 4 (of 6) yesterday, a preparedness meeting were held in Dhaka, as well as all of the 14 District Committees. The Government has allocated resources towards food (100 MT of rice) and cash payments (100,000 BDT) at the field level per district.

District Committees have been advised to treat all public buildings as cyclone shelters, including some private building such as hotels. Private owners will be compensated if necessary. Around 40 water treatment plants are ready to be mobilised to the potential affected areas. The Armed Forces, under the Prime Minister’s Office have established a coordination and information cell in preparation, and the Air Force is on call ready for food distribution drops. Of particular concern are the hard-to-reach areas, especially island communities. The Director General of the Department of Disaster Management briefed humanitarian agencies and told them refugees from Myanmar around Cox’s Bazaar are located on higher ground, and therefore less at risk of being affected. He confirmed that assistance would be provided equally without discrimination.

Humanitarian agencies in Bangladesh updated the Government on their preparedness plans. While the Government hasn’t requested assistance from the international community, clusters have been working with the Government to ensure complementary efforts. All clusters are reviewing and/or revising their contingency plans with input from all cluster members, updating stocks and pre-positioning supplies in at-risk locations such as Chittagong.

In Myanmar, relocation and evacuation efforts according to the Government's plan are underway. As part of stage-1, the plan is to move 38,000 IDPs yesterday and today (14 May). It is unclear how many people have been relocated. Teams from humanitarian agencies have been monitoring the relocation efforts. Some IDPs are reluctant to relocate and some communities have refused to use military vehicles or to shelter in military barracks. Discussions between Government and communities in Sittwe are ongoing to negotiate alternative sites. The Government agrees that relocations are to be done in consultation with the IDPs. Muslim leaders have issued a statement encouraging people to cooperate with authorities.

Humanitarian agencies are keen to understand what the triggers are for starting stage-2 of the evacuation plan which involves moving 100,000 IDPs. In Sittwe, the University will be used for stage-2 relocations.

Last night, seven boats with IDPs from the Pauktaw camp Nget Chaung, were moving to other camps in advance of the storm. One of the boats hit some rocks and capsized. It is understood that 100 IDPs were on the boats and 58 remain missing. This has now been confirmed by the Government. The Government will provide boats for the relocation of other IDPs in Pauktaw. The UN is calling for search and rescue capabilities to be assessed.

In Maungdaw, in northern Rakhine State, relocations are proceeding more slowly than in other locations. A total of 64 villages are to be relocated. Evacuations began on 13 May and the Government estimates that the majority will be moved by 15 May. The Planning Minister has told humanitarian agencies that the Government will not allow anyone to die in the cyclone, and that assistance must be provided equally to all affected people. Personal belongings are not being moved with the IDPs. The Government is informing villagers through multiple channels such as loudspeakers, the use of yellow flags, and leaflets. The Government has invited agencies to visit the relocation sites to assess their suitability and to help inform communities of the process. The shelter cluster coordinator has also arrived in Maungdaw to support operations.

In Kyaukhpyu, relocation has not yet started, however the site has been identified.

Humanitarian agencies responding as clusters in the areas of health, protection, shelter, food security, education and, water and sanitation have all made available staff that can deploy for response and assessments. Stock has been prepositioned such as medical supplies, tents and food. The Ministry of Health and the heath cluster have deployed 10 mobile teams to Sittwe and activated its emergency plan.

OCHA expects to issue another Flash Update tomorrow.


cya aussie!
Quoting Torito:
TD-1E now has wind speeds of 37mph.... Getting close to TS status, might see NHC change it to TS Alvin when they issue new information at 2:00 EST.
It doesn't look like a ts yet.
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look like a ts yet.


Did you see my post #55? We have the first wave officially!!
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look like a ts yet.



They dont have to look picture perfect to become named storms, just meet enough requirements to do so... Storms can miss 1-2 requirements and still become TS+ as long as all the other requirements are met.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Did you see my post #55? We have the first wave officially!!


The wave looks like any other wave, nothing suspicious yet..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Did you see my post #55? We have the first wave officially!!
Yep very cool that we got a td and the wave in the same day NHC trolling us.
Quoting Torito:



They dont have to look picture perfect to become named storms, just meet enough requirements to do so... Storms can miss 1-2 requirements and still become TS+ as long as all the other requirements are met.
I know that's why i said it.
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look like a ts yet.



its not up too you too make that if the nhc thinks it has made it too a TS then it is a TS
Quoting Torito:


The wave looks like any other wave, nothing suspicious yet..
Dude we are talking about the first wave!
Quoting Gearsts:
Dude we are talking about the first wave!


isnt this the same wave that we were talking about 2 days ago?...
Quoting Torito:


isnt this the same wave that we were talking about 2 days ago?...
I haven't been around the last couple of days so i don't know.
TCFP is not working again, site being updated or something.... -_-

Edit: NVM new link now...
Quoting Torito:


I dont like the models continuing to move towards the united states..





The sea temps are far too cool for any full impact on Baja or the US. If luck would have it and any moisture carries on after it dissipates, it just might head for places that can use the rain, there's a chance anyway.
Quoting Torito:


isnt this the same wave that we were talking about 2 days ago?...


Yes,they were analizing it as a surface trough but dropped it and now is the first wave.
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have invest get stronger with it being in the monsoon trough we this proves them wrong
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have an invest get stronger with it being in a monsoon trough, this proves them wrong


The storm is actually absorbing the monsoon trough, strengthing it further :P
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,they were analizing it as a surface trough but dropped it and now is the first wave.


See, monsoon almost completely absorbed.
Quoting Gearsts:


Yeah,a very wet pattern for the Caribbean for next week. TV met Ada Monzon just mentioned it.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have invest get stronger with it being in the monsoon trough we this proves them wrong




late
Weather channel on the TD...

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yeah,a very wet pattern for the Caribbean for next week. TV met Ada Monzon just mentioned it.
When does the ECMWF forecast come out?
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC001-011-013-027-065-081-083-093-099-131-141-15 1930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0085.130515T1637Z-130515T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-HATILLO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CAMUY PR-
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...HATILLO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...UTUADO ...SAN
SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...LAS MARIAS AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1233 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SECTIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
AND TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS...RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RIVER
RISES. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6703 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1837 6690 1839 6690 1840 6689 1840 6661
1816 6669 1818 6701 1840 6710

$$

JJA

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC029-031-119-127-139-152030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0084.130515T1632Z-130515T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 1230 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 430 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6607 1838 6576 1829 6586 1833 6607

$$

CASTRO
Quoting Torito:


The storm is actually absorbing the monsoon trough, strengthing it further :P

Yep
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC001-011-013-027-065-081-083-093-099-131-141-15 1930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0085.130515T1637Z-130515T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-HATILLO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CAMUY PR-
1237 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...HATILLO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...UTUAD O ...SAN
SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...ARECIBO...LAS MARIAS AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1233 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SECTIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
AND TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS...RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RIVER
RISES. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6703 1838 6695 1839 6692 1837 6691
1837 6690 1839 6690 1840 6689 1840 6661
1816 6669 1818 6701 1840 6710

$$

JJA

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

PRC029-031-119-127-139-152030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0084.130515T1632Z-130515T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
1232 PM AST WED MAY 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 1230 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 430 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6607 1838 6576 1829 6586 1833 6607

$$

CASTRO


Lol fail... Look at this.. No radar.

Quoting Gearsts:
When does the ECMWF forecast come out?


The May MSLP is out and show near normal pressure in the MDR and Caribbean and that is different from the April one that had higher pressures.



Link
Bye, Jamala!

Although GFS had dropped it I still strongly believe we will get our first Atlantic storm in the Caribbean between the last week of this month and the first week of June

TD1



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Although GFS had dropped it I still strongly believe we will get our first Atlantic storm in the Caribbean between the last week of this month and the first week of June


TCFP still shows possible formation there :]
TD1 looks more like a TS now. First image of the loop compared to last image really shows the strengthening it is having right now.


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The May MSLP is out and show near normal pressure in the MDR and Caribbean and that is different from the April one that had higher pressures.



Link
Oh wow can't wait what Levi has to say about it.
Manhassen is struggling. the MJO left and now its the east Pac turn to show what its made of.

Starting to believe this graph maybe right.
Quoting Torito:


TCFP still shows possible formation there :]

Yep I could remember a few times a storm developed and models did not pick it up till father it became a TD
Quoting bigwes6844:
Manhassen is struggling. the MJO left and now its the east Pac turn to show what its made of.


May get up to 65-70MPH winds but i seriously doubt it will make it to Cat1.
Well organized, should have no problem with approaching hurricane status in the next few days. Certainly rare to have two consecutive years with hurricanes developing in the month of May in the Eastern Pacific.



you can kinda see the monsoon wrapped INSIDE of the TD. xD
Quoting bigwes6844:
Manhassen is struggling. the MJO left and now its the east Pac turn to show what its made of.

Then the Caribbean and Atlantic after
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well organized, should have no problem with approaching hurricane status in the next few days. Certainly rare to have two consecutive years with hurricanes developing in the month of May in the Eastern Pacific.


Look at that little circle right behind the TD, diddnt see that yet...
Quoting Torito:


May get up to 65-70MPH winds but i seriously doubt it will make it to Cat1.
yeah i even doubt if it goes past 60 the way its looking
Quoting bigwes6844:
yeah i even doubt if it goes past 60 the way its looking


The main reason why it cant get stronger is because of the storm bands hitting land while it is being sheared at the same time.... Nothing lasts long when that happens.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Then the Caribbean and Atlantic after
right! huge MJO pulse!
Quoting Torito:



you can kinda see the monsoon wrapped INSIDE of the TD. xD
Quoting Gearsts:



LOL
Quoting Torito:


The main reason why it cant get stronger is because of the storm bands hitting land while it is being sheared at the same time.... Nothing lasts long when that happens.
exactly! but its almost over for them. we learned alot from the twins


I prefer this one. But I know it will change *unfavorably* (drier) for my area... as usual.
Quoting bigwes6844:
Manhassen is struggling. the MJO left and now its the east Pac turn to show what its made of.

Starting to believe this graph maybe right.

The MJO hasn't left the zone at all(second box), but soon will do,if you see the first box, the velocity potential is not good in the Region, is the same thing that happened with Ernesto last year...

Popocatépetl Volcano in Mexico Continues to Show Signs of Activity
After an eruption last week that spewed ash and lava, the Popocatépetl Volcano just southeast of Mexico City is again showing signs of activity. NOAA's Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center is monitoring the status of the volcano for any potential impacts on air traffic using a variety of satellite sensors, including the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) found on the NASA Aura spacecraft. Though OMI is intended primarily for ozone measurements, it can also detect sulfur dioxide - one of the many gases released by volcanoes before and during eruption. This image shows the sulfur dioxide measurements from two consecutive passes over the area on May 12th and 13th.





Link
TD 1-E has formed. Just in time for the start of East Pacific hurricane season.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well organized, should have no problem with approaching hurricane status in the next few days. Certainly rare to have two consecutive years with hurricanes developing in the month of May in the Eastern Pacific.



dos this have a ch too fourm in too any thing ???? I all so wounder if this was one of the gfs that was forcasting TD two E a few days a go



Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok we have first tropical wave



And 90E is now TD1E

and someone said you can't have invest get stronger with it being in the monsoon trough we this proves them wrong


It is no longer embedded in the monsoon trough. The trough dissipated, thus allowing development. This is something that was forecast to happen.
149. VR46L
Quoting Gearsts:


What storm is that ?
Quoting VR46L:


What storm is that ?

My guess is Hurricane Celia from 2010 in the EPAC.
Quoting VR46L:


What storm is that ?
Celia
nice wave coming off Africa, east coast system, and trouble heading in the GOM..last frame of the GFS looks to cover it all..

153. VR46L
Quoting Gearsts:
Celia


Thank You !!
Well well well...

Nice chance to see a tornado today!

the 12z Navgem got two area of low pressures entering the caribbean..180 hours..looks like everything wants to head due north..



Quoting ncstorm:
nice wave coming off Africa, east coast system, and trouble heading in the GOM..last frame of the GFS looks to cover it all..

I see nothing but blobs of rain.
Quoting Tazmanian:



dos this have a ch too fourm in too any thing ???? I all so wounder if this was one of the gfs that was forcasting TD two E a few days a go





I'm not seeing much in the way of model support. Looks too close to land.
T.C.F.W.
01E/TD/XX/CX

im not a big fan of the epac but the GFS had this on the 12z run at 240 hours but it looks to impact Mexico





Pre-Alvin might have some issues with some dry air injection out of the Southern quadrant as the bands start to wrap around but the coc is in a nice little pocket of moisture otherwise at the moment.

Link
Quoting ncstorm:
nice wave coming off Africa, east coast system, and trouble heading in the GOM..last frame of the GFS looks to cover it all..

Alex Déjà vu.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:10 PM EDT Wednesday 15 May 2013
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:29.5 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:77.5°F
Dewpoint:55.6°F
Humidity:60%
Wind:W 26 gust 36 mph
Humidex: 83


nice temp change over 24 hrs 48 yesterday 77.5 today
almost 30 degree temp change in 24hrs
Quoting Gearsts:




Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm not seeing much in the way of model support. Looks too close to land.


Looks to be in association with the semi-permanent low that is there this time of the year.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I see nothing but blobs of rain.


I never said they were hurricanes or even tropical depressions..I was just pointing out the potential of development..
The MDR just can't make up its mind. Significant cooling has occurred over the past 7 days. Of course, this is probably something that happens every year, but this year Levi has given us the luxury of the daily change in the anomalies.



I've always gotten a good chuckle out of the range of comments on this blog. Posters drooling over every thunderstorm that pops up in the tropics - complete with predictions that it will reach Category 4 or 5 strengh sometime in the next 12 minutes, invests being referred to as though they have names, gleeful pronouncements of excitement over waves, etc. All at the same time there is the hand wringing, "Oh gee, I hope that everyone gets out of the way." Make up your minds.

Despite all of the predictions, arguments and agreements over the next big storm, or complaints that the NHC didn't upgrade it to a Category 4 storm when the winds are still at 25 kts, what will happen will happen. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and get your forecasts from the professionals. Copy and paste of 10,000 word forecasts that are readily available on the web doesn't make you a climatological or meteorological genius.

By the way, while I am working on getting myself banned or ignored for not making a big deal over every freaking cloud over a tropical ocean, "canes" are for walking, "nados" or "naders" are non-words (at least not in English) and a "cat" is a feline that in general is not a big fan of water.
@Wiiilbur

How could you not enjoy the "Season"

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Pre-Alvin might have some issues with some dry air injection out of the Southern quadrant as the bands start to wrap around but the coc is in a nice little pocket of moisture otherwise at the moment.

Link


SSTs will be on the upswing!
Quoting Wiiilbur:
I've always gotten a good chuckle out of the range of comments on this blog. Posters drooling over every thunderstorm that pops up in the tropics - complete with predictions that it will reach Category 4 or 5 strengh sometime in the next 12 minutes, invests being referred to as though they have names, gleeful pronouncements of excitement over waves, etc. All at the same time there is the hand wringing, "Oh gee, I hope that everyone gets out of the way." Make up your minds.

Despite all of the predictions, arguments and agreements over the next big storm, or complaints that the NHC didn't upgrade it to a Category 4 storm when the winds are still at 25 kts, what will happen will happen. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and get your forecasts from the professionals. Copy and paste of 10,000 word forecasts that are readily available on the web doesn't make you a climatological or meteorological genius.

By the way, while I am working on getting myself banned or ignored for not making a big deal over every freaking cloud over a tropical ocean, "canes" are for walking, "nados" or "naders" are non-words (at least not in English) and a "cat" is a feline that in general is not a big fan of water.


Thanks for your very beneficial comment to the blog. Glad that you could grab a little attention for yourself. Please don't post again.

Regards,

The entire blog
Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z Navgem got two area of low pressures entering the caribbean..180 hours..looks like everything wants to head due north..





Now we got models forecasting development

Good afternoon Friends!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks for your very beneficial comment to the blog. Glad that you could grab yourself a little attention. Please don't post again.

Regards,

The entire blog


thank you Miss!!

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Both cyclone specific models like 01E.

GFDL

HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -112.96 LAT: 13.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.73

HWRF

HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -111.70 LAT: 11.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
It's now Tropical Storm Alvin.
Quoting MississippiWx:
The MDR just can't make up its mind. Significant cooling has occurred over the past 7 days. Of course, this is probably something that happens every year, but this year Levi has given us the luxury of the daily change in the anomalies.





Good point. I can't remember ever taking continuous looks at SST anomalies. You're likely right in that these fluctuations are probably quite normal, i.e., clouds, sunshine, dust, currents, etc. The bottom line would be are SSTs thresholds able to support cyclogenesis. My guess would be yes, even now in the seemingly more than usual anomalously cool GoM.