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Little Change to Tropical Storm Mahasen; First Eastern Pacific Tropical Disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on May 14, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Mahasen in the Bay of Bengal continues to show little change, and the storm is running out of time to undergo rapid intensification into a dangerous major hurricane. The 10 am EDT Tuesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds at 50 mph, with a motion northeast at 8 mph towards Bangladesh. Satellite loops show that Mahasen has been struggling with wind shear over the past day. The low-level circulation center has become exposed to view several times, with an intense area of thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops just to the west of the center. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. The upper-level outflow channels have degraded some since Monday, even though wind shear has decreased to a moderate 10 - 15 knots. Ocean waters have cooled some, to 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F). The warm ocean waters extend to great depth, though, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is over 90 J/kg/cm^2, which is favorable for rapid intensification.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 05:35 UTC Tuesday May 14, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Wind shear has caused the low-level center to become exposed to view on the east side, with a clump of heavy thunderstorms to the west of the center. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 00 UTC May 14, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 7" are expected along a wide swath just to the right of where the storm makes landfall. Bangladesh's two largest cities, Dhaka and Chittagong, are shown. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

Forecast for Mahasen
The most favorable conditions for Mahasen to intensify would appear to be today, as the storm will be moving over cooler waters with a much reduced total heat content beginning about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Wednesday, so there is still time for Mahasen to reach Category 1 strength, as the official JTWC forecast calls for. There is a lot of hot, dry air to the storm's northwest over India, though, and if this dry air gets wrapped into Mahasen's circulation, it could put the brakes on intensification. Landfall is expected to occur in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Thursday near 18 UTC, and wind shear is predicted to increase on Thursday, so the opportunity to Mahasen to undergo rapid intensification into a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane is growing short. I give a 10% chance that Mahasen will undergo rapid intensification to a Category 3 or stronger storm before landfall. There is a precedent for this sort of event: in October 2010, Tropical Cyclone Giri, which was approaching the coast of Myanmar near Bangladesh, underwent explosive deepening from a 60 mph tropical storm to a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds in just 30 hours. Even a Category 1 storm has the potential to bring a destructive storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh, where the ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths. Heavy rainfall will present a major flooding threat regardless of the storm's final intensity at landfall. The 00Z May 14 run of the HWRF model predicts that the Mahasen will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 3 -7" over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a particular concern for the 140,000 Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps. Evacuations of 70,000 of these refugees has been recommended, and a boat carrying refugees capsized on Monday, killing eight and leaving 50 missing.


Figure 3. Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal. The shallow waters of the Continental Shelf (mostly shallower than 200 meters) are shaded whitish-grey. From Kolkata, India to Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, the ocean bottom is shallow and allows storm surges to pile up to great depths. Fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar, bringing catastrophic storm surges. Image credit: geomapapp.org.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning

Weather Whiplash in the Midwest: a 70° warm-up in just one day
It's been a "Topsy-Turvy Temperature Regime for U.S. this May" says underground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post. After record May cold and snows hit the Great Lakes over the weekend, a ferocious May heat wave is in full bloom today. Several cities are poised to experience their greatest 1-day May temperature swing on record today. Chicago bottomed out at 36° on Monday morning, and this afternoon's high is predicted to be 88°--a spectacular 52° change in temperature in just one day. The all-time record for a one-day warm-up in the Windy City during May is 50°, set May 1, 1992. A 50°+ temperature swing is also expected in Minneapolis, where the high today is predicted to be 94°, coming on the heels of a 41° low Monday morning. The most dramatic "Weather Whiplash", though, came in Aberdeen, South Dakota, where the mercury hit 22° on May 12, then shot up to 92° on May 13--an astonishing 70° rise in just one day!

Alvin coming? First "Invest" of the year forms in the Eastern Pacific
The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15, and it looks like Mother Nature is playing along with this idea, with the appearance yesterday of the year's first "Invest" (Invest 90E) in the Eastern Pacific. Invest 90E is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a low 5 -10 knots, and is predicted to remain low for the next four days. Ocean temperatures are a warm 29 - 30°C, and I give a 30% chance that 90E will become a tropical depression by Thursday morning, as predicted by the GFS model. If the system reaches tropical storm strength, it would be called Alvin.

What is an "Invest"?
When a National Hurricane Center forecaster sees a tropical disturbance that may be a threat to develop into a tropical depression, the forecaster may label the disturbance an "Invest" and give it a tracking identification number. There is no formal definition of what qualifies as an "Invest". Declaring an "Invest" is merely done so that a set of forecasting aids like computer model track forecasts can be generated for the disturbance. The "Invest" is given a number 90-99, followed by a single letter corresponding to the ocean basin--"L" for the Atlantic, or "E" for the Eastern Pacific. Other warning agencies assign "Invests" for the other ocean basins--"W" for the Western Pacific, "A" for the Arabian Sea, etc. Detailed microwave and traditional satellite images are available for all "Invests" across the globe at the Navy Research Lab web site.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc!
Sheesh! Was it ever more appropriate to turn the page to a new blog!
Thanks Doc !!!
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Sheesh! Was it ever more appropriate to turn the page to a new blog!


You ain't kidding as Taz is on a roll today.
Thanks Dr. Masters!

I'd also say it has a 30% chance for development in the next 48hrs, but a much higher chance for becoming a TC in any time frame.
Thanks Doc..let's see if Texas can kill off storms again this year :) even though they do really need the rain.I find it interesting that Texas in 07 had a wet pattern and the year after they had two significant hits Dolly and Ike...They have since been in a dry pattern.
POSS T.C.F.A.
90E/INV/XX/XX
MARK
8.1N/99.88W
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BECOME LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY AID THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
CHANCES FOR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 14 2013

LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE EARLY SEASON MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N96W HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HELP
OF SHEAR VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS...BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN A BAROTROPICALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING BY WED. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-PROPAGATING DISTURBANCE...
IN THIS CASE A CARIBBEAN WAVE THAT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN SOME
CASES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.
nice read thanks doc

well things look to start right on cue

Last call for rain

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Sheesh! Was it ever more appropriate to turn the page to a new blog!
Aw man, that was just getting fun. Back on topic now.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
17:30 PM IST May 14 2013
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastward during the past 6 hours at the speed of about 7 knots and now lays near 14.5N 86.0E, about 800 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman Island, 460 km southeast of Vishakpatnam, India, 650 km south southwest of Paradip, India, and 1060 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

Cyclone would move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong around 1800 PM UTC on May 16th.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5, CI 2.5. The shear pattern of the system continues. The convective cloud is sheared to the west of low level circulation center by about 0.6. Associated intense to very intense convection has been seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 18.0N and west of 86.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 17.0N and is providing poleward out flow. An anticyclonic circulation lies over east central Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 5-10 knots in the northeast sector and 10-20 knots in other sectors. Upper level divergence has decreased increased during past 3 hrs. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no change during past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 30c and ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over storm area and decreases gradually towards northern Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 4 with amplitude equal to 2. it is favorable for intensification and northward movement of the system.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northward movement during next few hours and then recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast and landfall over Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong between 12-18 PM UTC of May 16th. However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. GFS continues to maintain initial intensity as a depression until landfall. ECMWF model maintains cyclonic storm intensity for next 24 hours and weakens gradually thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity of cyclonic storm until landfall. UKMO and JMA suggest gradual increase in intensity until landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.0N 87.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 18.0N 88.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 20.8N 91.2E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 24.0N 94.7E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Did you all see the 0Z CMC and GFS Ensemble have it too!:)
Did Tropical Storm Bonnie come back :-P
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Did Tropical Storm Bonnie come back :-P


SSShhh !!! I know folk who need therapy at the mention of that "storm" name !
Visible satellite image of triple lows over the UK



We can see three low pressure areas showing up as swirls of cloud to the north of Scotland near Shetland, north of Northern Ireland and off south-west England. The centre of the lows show up as cloud free areas, the eye of the storm.

The low to the south west has developed quickly through today and will bring strong winds this evening to parts of Cornwall.

From: Met Office News Blog
Thanks Jeff...
Yay a 90E blog :D
90E

90E now has wind speeds of 32Kt, compared to 27 yesterday and 29 this morning.
Thanks Doc!


@Interior .US Dept of Interior
Another stunning sight on America's public lands. A #rainbow in the distance over Rocky Mountain NP.
This will likely change tomorrow.

Meanwhile in the Mid Pac: Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii Link
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140925
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
9000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES EMBEDDED
IN TROUGH NEAR 07N96W 1008 MB TO 10N110W TO 09N124W...THEN ITCZ
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN
99W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 0400
UTC REVEALED SMALL AREA OF 35 KT GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR 15.5N95W.
FOR THIS REASON A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT...FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MAX UNTIL ABOUT
1500 UTC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE BY
18Z. EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING.

LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE EARLY SEASON MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N96W HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HELP
OF SHEAR VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS...BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN A BAROTROPICALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING BY WED. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-PROPAGATING DISTURBANCE...
IN THIS CASE A CARIBBEAN WAVE THAT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN SOME
CASES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES NNW OF THE AREA WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 20N114W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN THE
TRADES AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT THROUGH THU.

$$
MUNDELL



Quoting JNCali:
Meanwhile in the Mid Pac: Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii Link


Man... I hope they dont have to deal with another Iniki......
Hamweather Already updated their tropic outlook maps.







Goodnight all. Getting quiet cold here but far from the record cold back on May 17th 1999 when it was 34.5°F. Tonight it's only expected to get down to 43°F, Currently 46°F

If anyone is interested, Baikonur Cosmodrome complex is 32mins away from launching The Eutelsat W3D communications satellite will be launched on a Proton-M launch vehicle topped by a Breeze-M upper stage booster.

The launch is scheduled for May 14, 2013 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

This will also be the seventh Eutelsat satellite launched with Proton. In addition, the Eutelsat W3D will be the ninth Thales Alenia Space satellite launched on Proton.

There is one video feeds available.
Video feed
The Baikonur Cosmodrome complex is in Kazakhstan
Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all. Getting quiet cold here but far from the record cold back on May 17th 1999 when it was 34.5°F. Tonight it's only expected to get down to 43°F, Currently 46°F

If anyone is interested, Baikonur Cosmodrome complex is 32mins away from launching The Eutelsat W3D communications satellite will be launched on a Proton-M launch vehicle topped by a Breeze-M upper stage booster.

The launch is scheduled for May 14, 2013 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

This will also be the seventh Eutelsat satellite launched with Proton. In addition, the Eutelsat W3D will be the ninth Thales Alenia Space satellite launched on Proton.

There is one video feeds available.
Video feed

I will watch it :P
Thanks Dr. Actually think 90E was looking better this time yesterday in terms of convective bursts but it looks to be trying to consolidate a coc around 102W - 5N. Could see a depression in the next 24 if sheer stays low.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. Actually think 90E was looking better this time yesterday in terms of convective bursts but it looks to be trying to consolidate a coc around 102W - 5N. Could see a depression in the next 24 if sheer stays low.


Agreed, it keeps getting stronger, it has gained about 5kt wind speed in the last 12 hours, and seems to have better conditions for development for about 2-3 days before shear picks up again.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1119 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

PRC037-069-077-085-095-103-109-129-151-141815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0078.130514T1519Z-130514T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
1119 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...
SAN LORENZO...YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 1117 AM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
IN ADDITION...U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATED ONE TO TWO INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 215 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6606 1821 6598 1828 6578 1824 6568
1798 6596

$$

CASTRO
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.


LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 7N98W HAS STRENGTHENED.
ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS S AND W OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED GROWTH. AS THE LOW MOVES W
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.
NWS Las Vegas @NWSVegas
Low #temperature in #Vegas was 80 degrees this morning at McCarran Airport, makes it earliest daily 80 degree low ever here. #nvwx


Just over 4mins till launch.
Video here>>>> Link
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1148 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

PRC029-031-037-053-087-089-119-141845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0079.130514T1548Z-130514T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
1148 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...LUQUILLO. ..RIO GRANDE
AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1146 AM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
ALSO...U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATED ONE TO TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN
OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE
MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 245 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6581 1842 6581 1842 6576 1839 6574
1840 6572 1838 6570 1838 6561 1824 6564
1828 6578 1829 6578 1829 6580 1834 6596
1846 6593

$$

CASTRO
Thanks Aussie for the launch link.

Back to normal here (whatever that is), right now it is 80/55



The forecast came down about 5 degrees from what they posted last night, Oh Yea.
Quoting AussieStorm:
NWS Las Vegas @NWSVegas
Low #temperature in #Vegas was 80 degrees this morning at McCarran Airport, makes it earliest daily 80 degree low ever here. #nvwx


Just over 4mins till launch.
Video here>>>> Link


Havent seen anyone walk around anywhere the whole entire time... It would be way different if this was in the united states.
Thanks for the post on 90E Doc, Go EPAC....
Longest minute of my life coming right now -.-

and there is a stupid shrub in front of the engine
---.....---
GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO XD

thought it was going down for a minute when the engine quit for like 5 seconds.
It took 4 minutes before it got to space... Wow.
Lots of Red Flag Warnings up across the upper Great Plains...
At 5:30: rocket stage 2 discarded.
POSS T.C.F.A.
90E/INV/XX/XX
MARK
8.1N/101.88W
Wow they have the discarded peices of the rocket tracked to know where it falls.
3rd and last phase of the rocket off now.(unless if this is one of the new 4 stage rockets)
It's no surprise that the convection associated with 90E has deteriorated a bit since yesterday. It hasn't really been its own entity since it has been embedded within the monsoon trough. The convection will pulse and fade continually until it can separate itself from the trough completely. Even when it does separate itself, it might take a little while to gain its footing outside of the moisture-laden monsoon. No surprises yet and everything is pretty much going as planned from yesterday.

And all this time I thought the "L" in the label for invests in the Atlantic stood for Low Pressure. Thanks Dr. Masters for providing this information!
Thanks Doc!
REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
*************************************************
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
*************************************************


xD i love that chart.
rocket launch over now (for us anyway), they changed the video settings to animations only now.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Lots of Red Flag Warnings up across the upper Great Plains...


I'm under red flag warnings too SI

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICAL HUMIDITIES AND HIGH ERC VALUES...

.A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY RESULTING IN LOW HUMIDITIES.

FLZ050-060-065-150000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0026.130514T1600Z-130515T0000Z/
PINELLAS-SARASOTA-LEE-
511 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES AND HIGH ERC
VALUES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...PINELLAS...SARASOTA...LEE.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 5
TO 7 HOURS TODAY. LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL BE AROUND 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$





------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC077-085-129-151-141915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0015.130514T1622Z-130514T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1222 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS
LAS PIEDRAS
SAN LORENZO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 1218 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGES AND U.S.G.S GAUGES INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF
2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER THE
WARNING AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1824 6590 1816 6586 1811 6588 1811 6587
1812 6585 1810 6585 1809 6583 1806 6581
1803 6588 1811 6599 1821 6599

$$

FC/AAS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
The next statement will be issued at 4.30 AM today.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Today..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
Northwestern Ontario.

Tonight..Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over
Northeastern Ontario beginning over the Superior East region late in
the evening then spreading eastward overnight. Isolated
Thunderstorms are likely over Southwestern Ontario ahead of a warm
front beginning late in the evening. There is a slight risk that
some of these thunderstorms could be severe with large hail and
torrential downpours being the main threats. Damaging winds are a
lesser threat.

Wednesday..There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with
Large hail and torrential downpours mainly in the morning over
Southwestern Ontario southwest of a line from Kincardine to
Niagara-on-the-lake as a warm front moves through. Damaging winds
Are also possible. Across South-Central, eastern and Northeastern
Ontario scattered non-severe thunderstorms with downpours and small
hail are possible near and ahead of the warm front.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
A thunderstorm is defined as severe if it produces one or more of the
following:

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres in diameter or greater.
- rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres or greater in one hour or less.
- a tornado.

Note: this forecast is issued twice daily from May 1 to September 30.

END/OSPC
65. MTWX
Mahasen is already taking lives...
Link


Pretty much the only rain in the united states right now...
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1223 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

PRC013-017-039-054-091-101-145-141815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0080.130514T1623Z-130514T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA BAJA
PR-ARECIBO PR-
1223 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...CIALES...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS. ..VEGA BAJA
AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* SHOWERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS. AT LEAST UNTIL 2:15 PM THESE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...
RIVERS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6642 1836 6645 1837 6674 1848 6673
1849 6670

$$

FIGUEROA
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1223 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

PRC013-017-039-054-091-101-145-141815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0080.130514T1623Z-130514T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA BAJA
PR-ARECIBO PR-
1223 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...CIALES...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS . ..VEGA BAJA
AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* SHOWERS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS. AT LEAST UNTIL 2:15 PM THESE
SHOWERS ALONG WITH RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...
RIVERS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6642 1836 6645 1837 6674 1848 6673
1849 6670

$$

FIGUEROA




Not really anything there.... xD
69. MTWX
Quoting Torito:


Pretty much the only rain in the united states right now...


wouldn't quite say that....

Link
Quoting MTWX:


wouldn't quite say that....

Link


Mid to upper 80 temps all along the Gulf Coast throughout the forecast should help to shoot those Gulf temps back above normal soon.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Mid to upper 80 temps all along the Gulf Coast throughout the forecast should help to shoot those Gulf temps back above normal soon.



GOM is slowly climbing.

A grey whale has been sighted off the coast of Namibia. They were hunted to extinction in the North Atlantic in the 18th century, leaving only a population in the North Pacific. Namibia is about as far away from the N. Pacific as you can get. There isn't even a record of one south of the equator!

Grey whale identified off Namibia
Quoting MississippiWx:
Mid to upper 80 temps all along the Gulf Coast throughout the forecast should help to shoot those Gulf temps back above normal soon.



The warm SST area is spreading.
Type "Atari Breakout" in google image search......:)
There is a trough in the Northeast.



It could maybe bring some showers.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Type "Atari Breakout" in google image search......:)

haha xD
...nevermind
After a low of 61 here last night it's 83 now. The weird thing is it was almost 20 degrees cooler on the west side of FL. Orlando east was much warmer.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Type "Atari Breakout" in google image search......:)


Thanks for that reminder. More ways for me to exercise lack of discipline.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Type "Atari Breakout" in google image search......:)


The best score I could get before I lost interest was 584. Ha.
Quoting MTWX:
Mahasen is already taking lives...
Link


Really awful. The Rohingya Muslims of that region have been going through some horrific stuff lately.

Muslims in Myanmar barricade village as attacks spread


Hopefully things get better for them. :(
12Z now at 240HR CMC
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z now at 240HR CMC


how come your image shows a low and Levi's site doesnt?

Another excellent blog post...this is why I read it. Thanks Dr Masters!
Impressive and extreme heat building out west. Sioux City, IA was up to 102F, as of 11:52 AM local time. Not only is that already a daily record, but it's the second earliest 100F+ reading ever there (behind the 100 recorded on May 6, 1934). It's the earliest 102F+ reading ever (previous record 102 on May 25, 1967). With plenty of daytime heating left, it could challenge the monthly high of 105F set on May 30, 1934. That would be the earliest 105F+ by more than two weeks!

Looks like this is setting up to be another scorching summer. I think we've turned a corner as we reached near (and now briefly exceeded) 400 ppm CO2. With the last three summers being among the hottest on record for the country, I think that we've reached a tipping point where every summer from here on out will be warmer than the 20th century mean (some much warmer). Doesn't mean every summer will approach the Dust Bowl records, like last, but I think comfortable summertime weather is a thing of the past, especially since dew points seem to be climbing even faster than the temperature.
Quoting ncstorm:


how come your image shows a low and Levi's site doesnt?



How a "low" is defined in gridded data can have different levels of sensitivity. For high-resolution data, any grid cell surrounded by cells with larger MSLP values would be considered a low, but if I plotted all of those, you would be overwhelmed with "L"s. I have to require a minimum radius within which a grid cell has the lowest value and is surrounded by higher pressure. In this way, only the "true" lows on the synoptic- and meso-scales are captured.

In this case, it is also obvious to me from the 850mb wind field and MSLP field that there shouldn't be a 1007mb low south of Cuba as in the other image. The real low is farther south, as seen in this zoomed image:

Up to 104F now in Sioux City, IA.

Records that have already fallen, and others that could be challenged:

Earliest 108F on record: June 21, 1988
Earliest 107F on record: June 10, 1933
Earliest 106F on record: June 10, 1933
Earliest 105F on record: May 30, 1934
Earliest 104F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 103F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 102F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 101F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 100F on record: May 6, 1934
Quoting ClimateChange:
Up to 104F now in Sioux City, IA.

Records that have already fallen, and others that could be challenged:

Earliest 108F on record: June 21, 1988
Earliest 107F on record: June 10, 1933
Earliest 106F on record: June 10, 1933
Earliest 105F on record: May 30, 1934
Earliest 104F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 103F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 102F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 101F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 100F on record: May 6, 1934

Incredible heat. Especially so early in the year. Are today's high temperatures significant weather events?
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

PRC003-005-099-131-142100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0081.130514T1759Z-130514T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
159 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST...TERMINAL RADAR AND SATELITE IMAGES INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE
MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH 500 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6690 1827 6695 1838 6722 1839 6722
1841 6719 1842 6717 1844 6716

$$

CASTRO
What does MSLP stand for?

I always thought it stood for Millibar Surface Level Pressure.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
What does MSLP stand for?

I always thought it stood for Millibar Surface Level Pressure.


Close lol. Mean Sea Level Pressure.
Quoting Levi32:


Close lol. Mean Sea Level Pressure.


Thanks.
Quoting Levi32:


How a "low" is defined in gridded data can have different levels of sensitivity. For high-resolution data, any grid cell surrounded by cells with larger MSLP values would be considered a low, but if I plotted all of those, you would be overwhelmed with "L"s. I have to require a minimum radius within which a grid cell has the lowest value and is surrounded by higher pressure. In this way, only the "true" lows on the synoptic- and meso-scales are captured.

In this case, it is also obvious to me from the 850mb wind field and MSLP field that there shouldn't be a 1007mb low south of Cuba as in the other image. The real low is farther south, as seen in this zoomed image:



Thanks Levi!
The MJO was active during the past week with the enhanced phase centered over the Indian Ocean. An atmospheric Kelvin wave coupled with the MJO contributed to a pair of tropical cyclones developing across the southern Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal. Short-lived Tropical Cyclone Jamala developed in the southern Indian Ocean on May 9 but quickly weakened due to vertical wind shear. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Mahasen formed over the very warm waters of the Bay of Bengal on May 11. As of May 14, Tropical Cyclone Mahasen is forecast to track north towards Bangladesh. Please see the latest forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Dynamical model MJO index forecasts indicate a weakening signal during week-1. The enhanced phase of the MJO is forecast to shift east across the Maritime Continent during week-1 with the suppressed phase over the Americas. Due to a weak MJO signal among the dynamical model MJO index forecasts during week-2, identifying anomalous convection across the global tropics is a challenge beyond week-1.

The Week-1 outlook is based on MJO precipitation composites, dynamical/statistical model forecasts, and where anomalous convection is currently ongoing and likely to persist. Above average rainfall is likely along the track of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as it is forecast to affect Bangladesh later this week. MJO precipitation composites and model guidance favor above (below) average rainfall across the Maritime Continent (Central America and the western Caribbean Sea). Ongoing convection, associated with an equatorial Rossby wave, along with model guidance supports the forecast of above average rainfall across the western Indian Ocean. Increased chances for below average rainfall are forecast across the Lake Victoria region of equatorial Africa and southern Sudan due to expected low-level divergence. Meanwhile, enhanced convection is currently observed across the east Pacific. Model guidance indicates the development of a weak surface low in this region early in week-1. Therefore, moderate confidence exists for tropical cyclogenesis during week-1 across the east Pacific.

The Week-2 outlook is based primarily on dynamical model forecasts since uncertainty is high regarding the evolution of the MJO. Models are in reasonably good agreement for above (below) average rainfall across Central America/southwest Caribbean Sea (equatorial western Indian Ocean). Conditions for the formation of an early season tropical cyclone could become favorable by the beginning of June across the southwest Caribbean Sea.



Link
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

PRC037-069-077-085-095-103-109-129-151-142130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0082.130514T1833Z-130514T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
233 PM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...
SAN LORENZO...YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 232 PM AST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. IN ADDITION...U.S.G.S.
RIVER SENSORS INDICATED ONE TO TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. NEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES
THROUGH 530 PM AST AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6606 1821 6598 1828 6578 1824 6568
1798 6596

$$

CASTRO
Quoting ClimateChange:
Up to 104F now in Sioux City, IA.

Records that have already fallen, and others that could be challenged:

Earliest 108F on record: June 21, 1988
Earliest 107F on record: June 10, 1933
Earliest 106F on record: June 10, 1933
Earliest 105F on record: May 30, 1934
Earliest 104F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 103F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 102F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 101F on record: May 14, 2013
Earliest 100F on record: May 6, 1934


So record high temperatures in the west, record low temperatures in Florida.
At the current rate the 2013 tornado season will end with around 200-300 tornadoes.
And record low temperatures in Alaska: http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=NOAK49PAF G&type=public

Remember, Alaska is the canary in the coal mine when it comes to climate change (or so I've been told). ;)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
At the current rate the 2013 tornado season will end with around 200-300 tornadoes.


Bad news for severe weather lovers.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Bad news for severe weather lovers.
It has been very boring...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It has been very boring...


Hopefully we will see more activity in June.
12z Euro keeps spinning up a nice area of vorticity off of Florida..last 12z had a little east coast system..still running



nice storm in the middle atlantic..anyone know if thats cold core or not?


*************************************************

COMMONLY USED ABBREVIATIONS
.AOI:area of interest
.C:celsius
.CAT:category
.CDO:central dense overcast
.EWRC:eye wall replacement cycle
.GMT:greenwich mean time
.INV:invest
.IR:infra-red
.ITCZ:intertropical convergence zone
.KTS:knots
.MB:millibars
.MSLP:minimum sea level pressure
.MWS:maximum wind speed
.NHC:National Hurricane Centre
.RMW:radius of maximum winds
.SST:sea surface temperature
.STS:subtropical storm
.SAL:sahara air layer
.TCFA:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
.TC:tropical cyclone
.TD:tropical depression
.TS:tropical storm
.UTC:universal time
.VIS:visible sat image
.WV:water vapour sat image
.Z:zulu time
*************************************************
*********
Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
last frame..

It on the 12Z GFS two

Quoting ncstorm:
last frame..

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Bad news for severe weather lovers.


Tornados emigrated to elsewhere, it seems

Tornado kills one person in southern Turkey
One person was killed and 14 others were injured on Tuesday when a tornado struck a construction site in Turkey's southern coastal province of Mersin.

One person was killed and 14 others were injured on Tuesday when a tornado struck a construction site in Turkey's southern coastal province of Mersin.

The tornado partially destroyed the construction site in Mersin's Tarsus district on Tuesday afternoon


Source


(Of course, there have always been tornados in Europe, too, but they get more attention in present days)

Edit: And BTW, Tarsus, where this tornado struck, is the same city where St. Paul once was born.
POSS T.C.F.A.
90E/INV/XX

It's 107 F Tekamah Municipal Airport, IA as of right now... Unreal.

Link
Quoting ILwthrfan:
It's 107 F Tekamah Municipal Airport, IA as of right now... Unreal.

Link
Unreal, indeed, especially since that station dipped to 30 on Sunday morning--a 77-degree swing in two days.

There are many dozens of record high temperatures being set across the upper Great Plains and Midwest today, including a number of monthly--not just daily--records. Some locations are even seeing their first triple-digit May temperatures ever.

For example: Sioux City, Iowa--which reached 40 yesterday morning--is currently at 104. That's tied for the city's highest May temperature ever AFAICT, and is in fact only the sixth triple-digit temperature ever recorded there in the month of May.

SUX

There are still a few hours of heating left, so more records may fall. However, the weather across the region is expected to turn cooler and drier tomorrow, so this should be the end of this deep but shot-lived heat wave...
Good afternoon all!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
At the current rate the 2013 tornado season will end with around 200-300 tornadoes.






I think these images actually paints a sadder picture for Tornado Lovers
Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon all!


Hi nigel. Weather here is with rain in parts of the island this afternoon. How are things in the beautiful island of Jamaica?
Looking at the Severe Weather Trends for both Wind and Hail too, we are definitely below average for this time of the year



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. Weather here is with rain in parts of the island this afternoon. How are things in the beautiful island of Jamaica?

It has been mostly cloudy since early afternoon, but it's still very warm.
Do think that 90E will become the first epac storm of the season?
Judging by this satellite loop, I think it's safe to say 90E has developed a low-level center of circulation.



Still thinking late Thursday or early Friday.
90E has organized a little better throughout the day. There's actually a small banding feature to the north of what appears to be a small low level center which is partially underneath a ball of convection.

Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Looking at the Severe Weather Trends for both Wind and Hail too, we are definitely below average for this time of the year





I am still hoping severe weather season booms in June.

I've only seen one storm complex this year, and it wasn't that strong... I want to see more strong storms come through my area, I love watching them.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Looks like our invest still has a long, long way to go on organization.

Special TWO!! 30% chance.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

30%? That low? Odds are against it then. In fact, it has a 70% of not forming within the next 48 hours. Doesn't look like it's happening. Especially since it looks very disorganized on satellite.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

30%? That low? Odds are against it then. In fact, it has a 70% of not forming within the next 48 hours. Doesn't look like it's happening. Especially since it looks very disorganized on satellite.

You're hardly ever going to see the NHC start off development changes at high. It's unusual to see them start it off at 30%. These chances will be adjusted as the disturbance develops.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARD THE
MASON-DIXON LINE AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Off topic, but something exceptional:

First grey whale spotted south of the equator

Namibia sighting suggests much-hunted whales are regaining ancient migratory routes, or may be down to climate disruption.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Judging by this satellite loop, I think it's safe to say 90E has developed a low-level center of circulation.



Still thinking late Thursday or early Friday.


Guess I deployed that ragecomic a bit too soon. It looks like it has a chance.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Alvin each time is closer to be born.
30 km FIMX Zeus 84 hrs:

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Guess I deployed that ragecomic a bit too soon. It looks like it has a chance.


When a disturbance looks horrible people tend to jump the gun and just say it won't develop. The thing is though, these things take a bit of time, such as systems like 90E which have to first detach from the monsoon trough (which it appears to have done/is doing). Patience is required. You just have to look at the current environment, the forecast environment, and use a little thinking/model guidance.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

30%? That low? Odds are against it then. In fact, it has a 70% of not forming within the next 48 hours. Doesn't look like it's happening. Especially since it looks very disorganized on satellite.


30% in the next 48 hours.
Here was the 18z ATCF update:

EP, 90, 2013051418, , BEST, 0, 74N, 994W, 25, 1007, LO

and from the SHIPS...

V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 27 36 44 55 60 60 58 56 52
SHEAR (KT) 7 2 5 6 5 2 4 4 4 12 8 3 3
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1
700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 72 72 73 70 71 66 65 63 61 59
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When a disturbance looks horrible people tend to jump the gun and just say it won't develop. The thing is though, these things take a bit of time, such as systems like 90E which have to first detach from the monsoon trough (which it appears to have done/is doing). Patience is required. You just have to look at the current environment, the forecast environment, and use a little thinking/model guidance.


Ive seen seemingly dying invests with the NHC reducing their chances to develop actually develop in the end.
COC of Mahasen has been slipping under heavy convection again:
Link
The latest intensity forecast by the Tropical Models for 90E.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Judging by this satellite loop, I think it's safe to say 90E has developed a low-level center of circulation.



Still thinking late Thursday or early Friday.


Agree, if you look closely you can see the swirl..
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Incredible heat. Especially so early in the year. Are today's high temperatures significant weather events?


I'd say so. It peaked at 106F there. So the hottest ever for May and the earliest 106F+ reading by almost a full month! The 106F reading would be a daily record for every day in June but two.

================================================

Record Daily and Monthly Maximum Temperature Set in Sioux City

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
205 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013


...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT SIOUX CITY IA...

AT 135 PM THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 106 DEGREES AT THE SIOUX CITY
GATEWAY AIRPORT ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THIS DATE AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH OF MAY.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 97 DEGREES SET IN
2001 AND THE PREVIOUS RECORD MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY WAS
105 DEGREES SET ON MAY 30, 1934.


THE TOP TEN HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR MONTH OF MAY FROM 1889 TO 2013

DEGREES DATE

1. 105 5/30/1934
2. 103 5/29/1934
3. 102 5/25/1967
4. 102 5/31/1934
5. 101 5/15/2001
6. 100 5/06/1934
7. 99 5/19/1934
8. 99 5/18/1934
9. 98 5/28/2006
10. 98 5/24/1939
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It has been very boring...
I love boring
Wahooo! I passed 400!

oh, oops. that isn't Breakout that is Global CO2 ppm.

Sigh. So much for the 360 or 380 effort.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/10/atmosphe ric-co2-concentrations_n_3253757.html
8 hrs and 40 mins to go! eastern pac season!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Judging by this satellite loop, I think it's safe to say 90E has developed a low-level center of circulation.



Still thinking late Thursday or early Friday.


May I enter again with the latest ASCAT pass? :P

3 and a half hours old:



There are no northerlies evident in visible either. The circulation looks open to me on that loop anyway. It's definitely getting closer though. Not long now.
Good afternoon. I think 30% on 90E is a good call by the NHC. While convection isn't quite as impressive as yesterday, structure is definitely better defined, which is more important.

Keep it coming mother Nature..................
Just a few more weeks then we begin the watch..........
WOW!!!!! skipped right over western pac!
Wet Caribbean is portrayed by GFS for the last days of May but no TC formation looks imminent.

Latest UKMET forecast is a bit controversial. UKMET forecasts above average heights over the northern plains in it's latest May outlook. This pattern would decrease the likelihood of a landfall in the SE, putting Texas and maybe New England at greatest risk (as far as CONUS threats go). This forecast is interesting because it goes against most the other seasonal forecasts. I also find it's placement of the ridge counter-intuitive (for lack of a better word) because the northern plains is exactly where we've been seeing the trough set up since mid winter. I wouldn't buy into this forecast but it's something to keep an eye on.

A/S/O UKMET 500hPa Anomalies




A/S/O UKMET Precipitation Anomalies. Note the wet Caribbean/MDR and La Nina conditions in the Pacific

as we get closer to hurricane season here is some of the previous major landfalls
Quoting Levi32:


May I enter again with the latest ASCAT pass? :P

3 and a half hours old:



There are no northerlies evident in visible either. The circulation looks open to me on that loop anyway. It's definitely getting closer though. Not long now.

Didn't mean to imply that the circulation was closed, sorry. Was just trying to mention that, contrary to yesterday, there is a center beginning to develop in the low-levels now.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Latest UKMET forecast is a bit controversial. UKMET forecasts above average heights over the northern plains in it's latest May outlook. This pattern would decrease the likelihood of a landfall in the SE, putting Texas and maybe New England at greatest risk (as far as CONUS threats go). This forecast is interesting because it goes against most the other seasonal forecasts. I also find it's placement of the ridge counter-intuitive (for lack of a better word) because the northern plains is exactly where we've been seeing the trough set up since mid winter. I wouldn't buy into this forecast but it's something to keep an eye on.

A/S/O UKMET 500hPa Anomalies




A/S/O UKMET Precipitation Anomalies. Note the wet Caribbean/MDR and La Nina conditions in the Pacific


The ECMWF May forecast comes out tomorrow. I'm really interested in seeing whether it shows a pattern un-conducive for storms like it did last month, or a change to a more favorable environment (lower MSLPs and more precip).
POSS T.C.F.A
90E/INV/XX/XX
MARK
8.10N/101.88W
Quoting Ameister12:


Looks like it's revving up for a bit again. Probably wont last too long.
The current death toll from Cyclonic Storm Mahasen ranges from 24 to 216. We should hope it's the former.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The current death toll from Cyclonic Storm Mahasen ranges from 24 to 216. We should hope it's the former.

Agreed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The current death toll from Cyclonic Storm Mahasen ranges from 24 to 216. We should hope it's the former.

Either way, it's a good lesson in how "only a weak, disorganized TS" can still be very dangerous, especially in parts of the world like it is impacting.

frist time to see this map this year.
...and today's wonderful MODIS image of Invest 90E, courtesy of the NASA and the MODIS instrument aboard the Terra satellite.

High-flying experiments could help weather forecasting
By Monte Whaley, The Denver Post
Posted: 05/13/2013 05:41:12 PM MDT

Scientists based out of Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Airport will fly above the clouds for the next month, hoping to produce more accurate forecasts of when and where severe weather will hit homes and businesses.

It's all part of the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment, or MPEX, which runs May 15 to June 15. A crew will fly a Gulfstream V out of the airport at 3 a.m. and climb to 40,000 feet for up to six hours to sample pre-storm atmosphere across Colorado and nearby states.


Whole article
Quoting Hurricane1216:
...and today's wonderful MODIS image of Invest 90E, courtesy of the NASA and the MODIS instrument aboard the Terra satellite.



How do you find that?
Quoting cg2916:


How do you find that?


Either NASA's Worldview Alpha or the LANCE Web Mapping Service.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Either way, it's a good lesson in how "only a weak, disorganized TS" can still be very dangerous, especially in parts of the world like it is impacting.




weak ts can be just as dangerous here in America as well. take Allison hitting texas and bringing 40 inches of rain. or fay hitting florida (making 4 landfalls in the process) and flooding half the state. the main threat with these type of storms isn't the wind or even the surge, but rather freshwater/inland flooding
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The current death toll from Cyclonic Storm Mahasen ranges from 24 to 216. We should hope it's the former.


And that it has finished killing!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


And that it has finished killing!
10,000 souls was the opening bid could still happen has a little time left to do the deed
Quoting bigwes6844:
as we get closer to hurricane season here is some of the previous major landfalls


Plus Ike and Frances. They may not have met all the criteria for being major hurricanes but they inflicted major damage all the same.
It would appear that the model forecast the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch uses warrants a neat tropical storm from 90E come Saturday....

From 8" of snow earlier in May to this.
Get your stinkin' paws off me, you damn dirty ape...
Despite a the relatively low 500 mb heights (<582 dam), things have really heated up across the northern plains/midwest today! Heating of the very dry boundary layer today has been pretty extreme, leading to some really massive 1000-700 mb thickness values. This type of heating is usually only seen in some of the higher deserts.







After showing a weak tropical storm moving northeast into Nicaragua (yes, I stated that correctly), the CMC ends with an intensifying tropical storm or minimal hurricane headed northeast towards the coast.



We'll see how this turns out. The CMC nailed what should be "Alvin" Thursday over a week out. AFAIK, the ECMWF still doesn't show anything.
The HWRF-storm spec. model expects a ~972 mbar (hPa; 28.71 inHg) and 91kt Category 2 hurricane from Invest 90E at 12z on Friday.

Remember this from 5 days ago? Now it is this.
It has reached 98 in Minneapolis/St. Paul. The earliest 98 degree reading by 8 days. Will it reach 100 today?

The earliest 100 degree day was on May 31, 1934. It reached 106 that day.
It has reached 100 in Omaha NE today. The previous earliest 100 degree day was on May 29, 1934.
A remarkable turnaround for these places after such a cold spring. The spring will average a little less cold now.


What was the forecast for today 5 days ago in Omaha and Minneapolis?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
A remarkable turnaround for these places after such a cold spring. The spring will average a little less cold now.


What was the forecast for today 5 days ago in Omaha and Minneapolis?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
A remarkable turnaround for these places after such a cold spring. The spring will average a little less cold now.


What was the forecast for today 5 days ago in Omaha and Minneapolis?

Mid- to upper 80s at 5 days out. Low to mid-90s 3 days out.
[Edit: Sorry, I hit the wrong blog.]
Thanks Cody
The GEM sees little motion in that aforementioned Nicaragua tropical system prior to eventual landfall, which may lead to it becoming a large rainmaker. Here's a loose interpretation of the storm's track, just based off of pressures. Track starts at 6z on May 20 and is set to 6 hour intervals until 12z on May 24, in typical Wikipedia fashion.

Over here we almost had our latest freeze on record this morning. 34!
90E starting to look a little better on both conventional satellite imagery and microwave imagery:



Sunday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

...RECORD LOW SET IN OMAHA...NEBRASKA...

AT 412 AM THE TEMPERATURE IN OMAHA REACHED 32 DEGREES...ESTABLISHING
A NEW RECORD LOW FOR MAY 12TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 33 DEGREES
SET IN 1878.

Today:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN OMAHA NEBRASKA TODAY...

THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 101 DECREES AT 348 PM AT OMAHA EPPLEY
AIRFIELD TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES THAT
WAS SET IN 1915. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE READING ON
RECORD BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET ON MAY 29 1934 WHEN WE HIT
102.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
23:30 PM IST May 14 2013
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastward during the past 6 hour at the speed of 6 knots and now lays centered near 15.0N 86.5E, about 770 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman Island, 470 km southeast of Vishaakhapatnam, India, 600 km south of Paradip, India, and 1000 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

System would likely move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong at around 23:30 PM IST (May 16th).

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5, CI 2.5. The shear pattern of the system continues. The convective cloud is sheared to the west of low level circulation center by about 0.6 degrees. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 18.0N west of 87.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 17.0N and is providing poleward out flow. An anticyclonic circulation lies over east central Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 5-10 knots in the northeast sector and 10-20 knots in other sectors. Upper level divergence has increased during past 3 hrs. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no significant change during past 12 hrs. The sea surface Temperature is about 30C and ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over storm area and decreases gradually towards northern Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 4 with amplitude equal to 2. It is favorable for intensification and north northeastward movement of the system.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northward movement during next few hrs and then recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast and landfall over Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong between 17:30-23:30 PM IST (Thursday). However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. GFS continues to maintain initial intensity as a depression until landfall. ECMWF model maintains cyclonic storm intensity for next 24 hrs and weakens gradually thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity of cyclonic storm until landfall. UKMO and JMA suggest gradual increase in intensity until landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.5N 87.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 18.7N 88.8E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 21.0N 91.2E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 24.0N 94.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
Let's play 'find the monsoon trough':

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Plus Ike and Frances. They may not have met all the criteria for being major hurricanes but they inflicted major damage all the same.


Jeanne was no walk in the park for Florida.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Jeanne was no walk in the park for Florida.


Jeanne was already on the map that bigwest6844 put up. The ones I mentioned were not on his list because they did not meet all the criteria for major hurricanes.




What happened to the Caribbean SSTs .....
I would like too find the ones from this AM that saide 90E was going POOF I would like too send them some crow too eat
Quoting Hurricane1216:
The GEM sees little motion in that aforementioned Nicaragua tropical system prior to eventual landfall, which may lead to it becoming a large rainmaker. Here's a loose interpretation of the storm's track, just based off of pressures. Track starts at 6z on May 20 and is set to 6 hour intervals until 12z on May 24, in typical Wikipedia fashion.


Possible Crossover?
Quoting Tazmanian:
I would like too find the ones from this AM that saide 90E was going POOF I would like too send them some crow too eat


Here you go Taz.
A man tried to rob a bank after paying $500 to a wizard to make him invisible



Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
A man tried to rob a bank after paying $500 to a wizard to make him invisible



Link


Gandalf would never have made the same mistake.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Sunday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

...RECORD LOW SET IN OMAHA...NEBRASKA...

AT 412 AM THE TEMPERATURE IN OMAHA REACHED 32 DEGREES...ESTABLISHING
A NEW RECORD LOW FOR MAY 12TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 33 DEGREES
SET IN 1878.

Today:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN OMAHA NEBRASKA TODAY...

THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 101 DECREES AT 348 PM AT OMAHA EPPLEY
AIRFIELD TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES THAT
WAS SET IN 1915. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE READING ON
RECORD BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET ON MAY 29 1934 WHEN WE HIT
102.




Yuck! This is the kind of spring weather that brings farmers to tears...
Following the Terra's MODIS instrument, Aqua's MODIS instrument followed, and took this excellent and better coverage image of 90E.



Close-up of the storm's centre:

It was cold in Raleigh area this morning and temps struggled to break 70.

@NWSRaleigh

Brrrr. New record low set at RDU this morning of 39 degrees for May 14th. This is the first record low set at RDU since 11-22-2008!
The PDO is on the brink to turn positive for the first time since May of 2010. This may turn to be important as it does however effect the weather pattern over North America as PDO neutral favors warmer west and cooler east. Less likely of a SE ridge as high pressure off the west coast buckles a trough in the Eastern US. I'm wondering if this will increase the chance that systems forming in the Caribbean or Gulf heads for the US coast into the trough/weakness as compared to recent years that favored Central America.Interesting twist about this as the season starts shortly. I would like to get the opinions about this from Tom Taylor and Levi.

PDO goes from -63 in March to -16 in April
Clearly 90E is coupling right now, will be TS storm tomorrow night, and i'm being conservative.....
I just finished a blog update on 90E if you'd like to read it.

It's going to be tough to get a named storm in the Atlantic before the end of the month.

Quoting JTDailyUpdate:






I think these images actually paints a sadder picture for Tornado Lovers


I heard an amazing stat on Tornadoes. If you add up all the tornadoes from this year. It's less than half of all the tornadoes of April 2012.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Clearly 90E is coupling right now, will be TS storm tomorrow night, and i'm being conservative.....

IMHO it needs to break from the ITCZ then live on it's own before coming a man.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I heard an amazing stat on Tornadoes. If you add up all the tornadoes from this year. It's less than half of all the tornadoes of April 2012.

The year-to-date tornado count is less than the count from April 2012, yes. However, it is certainly not less than half as was heard. There have been 204 tornadoes during 2013 thus far compared to the April 2012 count of 205.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The PDO is on the brink to turn positive for the first time since May of 2010. This may turn to be important as it does however effect the weather pattern over North America as PDO neutral favors warmer west and cooler east. Less likely of a SE ridge as high pressure off the west coast buckles a trough in the Eastern US. I'm wondering if this will increase the chance that systems forming in the Caribbean or Gulf heads for the US coast into the trough/weakness as compared to recent years that favored Central America.Interesting twist about this as the season starts shortly. I would like to get the opinions about this from Tom Taylor and Levi.

PDO goes from -63 in March to -16 in April


I'm not Levi or Tom, but the reason for the change is that the big Pacific high has been forced to the south a bit. Here is a current image of the pattern over the Pacific. Notice how the high is forced to the south by strong low pressure over Alaska and just south of there.



However, the ensembles from the GFS predict a return to a more typical -PDO pattern, except for the big area of high pressure oriented further east like we have seen most of this spring.



The result of this current pattern has been a warming of the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico/California. However, if the GFS and its ensembles are correct, the -PDO should make a return soon.

The best way to kick off storm season truly is one of these EPAC systems that has the potential to become a minimal hurricane out over water. This one will be fun to track intensity-wise, will not be a threat to any land as a tropical system (cooler SST's due to how early it is in the season), and the off-chance that moisture from the storm's remnant helps to moisten the parched environment of the Southwest. I'm really looking forward to this one.

I'm thinking along the lines of Agatha from 2004, but possibly a little stronger. It sure has the potential to spin up nicely.


Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm not Levi or Tom, but the reason for the change is that the big Pacific high has been forced to the south a bit. Here is a current image of the pattern over the Pacific. Notice how the high is forced to the south by strong low pressure over Alaska and just south of there.



However, the ensembles from the GFS predict a return to a more typical -PDO pattern, except for the big area of high pressure oriented further east like we have seen most of this spring.



The result of this current pattern has been a warming of the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico/California. However, if the GFS and its ensembles are correct, the -PDO should make a return soon.



Also we have to see what effect if any a +PDO may have on ENSO. Let's see if that GFS forecast comes to fructition.
More MODIS images! This time, a comparison between Upper and Lower Red Lakes in Minnesota within the span of a week.

where do you find those images? I was planning a trip 'up north' to go fishing this weekend, and I wanted to make sure the lake was ice-free before I drive out =p

Quoting Hurricane1216:
More MODIS images! This time, a comparison between Upper and Lower Red Lakes in Minnesota within the span of a week.

My boring weather looks like this, this morning. This is looking east from my front door.

Ha! and they thought they would get to wait for the 'official' season this year!

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
276HR 18Z GFS
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW. for the Eastern Pacific
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The PDO is on the brink to turn positive for the first time since May of 2010. This may turn to be important as it does however effect the weather pattern over North America as PDO neutral favors warmer west and cooler east. Less likely of a SE ridge as high pressure off the west coast buckles a trough in the Eastern US. I'm wondering if this will increase the chance that systems forming in the Caribbean or Gulf heads for the US coast into the trough/weakness as compared to recent years that favored Central America.Interesting twist about this as the season starts shortly. I would like to get the opinions about this from Tom Taylor and Levi.

PDO goes from -63 in March to -16 in April
I don't think it will go positive. If it does it shouldn't be for very long since an oscillation like the PDO is supposed to maintain phase for multiple decades (though minor flips may be observed on the daily to weekly scale). It is interesting though; the warm pool is well dislodged to the east compared to last year (and most -pdo years) and, as you mentioned, the horseshoe of cold water is not very cold at all giving us a near neutral signal.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
30%





some one late
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW. for the Eastern Pacific




I think we all no that all ready no need too repost it and if you learn too ready back a little then reposting stuff that we all ready no then this will make this blog a march happer place
Quoting stormchaser19:
Clearly 90E is coupling right now, will be TS storm tomorrow night, and i'm being conservative.....


Still has a rather elongated area of 850mb vorticity. It needs to tighten it up quick if it wants to be a TD within the next 24 hours.

The 18z GFS has reached remains in agreement with the recent CMC runs in showing a potent tropical storm or minimal hurricane next weekend. Strange to have model consensus so far out. Let's see if the ECMWF catches on.



Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't think it will go positive. If it does it shouldn't be for very long since an oscillation like the PDO is supposed to maintain phase for multiple decades (though minor flips may be observed on the daily to weekly scale). It is interesting though; the warm pool is well dislodged to the east compared to last year (and most -pdo years) and, as you mentioned, the horseshoe of cold water is not very cold at all giving us a near neutral signal.


Do you think this PDO fluctuation may have an effect on ENSO?
Hi i'm new,According to the type map of future predictions: 500 mb tropical heights Allan Huffman, low pressure will become tropical cyclone but also be of category 1-3 hurricane due to the warm waters
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather
Grand Island, NE reached 102 F today, becoming the earliest 100 degree day since May 20, 1925.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18z GFS has reached remains in agreement with the recent CMC runs in showing a potent tropical storm or minimal hurricane next weekend. Strange to have model consensus so far out. Let's see if the ECMWF catches on.





ECMWF isn't showing anything in that time frame. But it did show this.

216hrs Thursday May 23rd

.


@Earth_Pics Earth Pics
Frozen bubbles in Canadian rockies - Canada
Latest OSCAT... it's still got a while:

Bangladesh and Myanmar prepare for Tropical Cyclone

Governments and aid agencies have activated disaster response mechanisms in Bangladesh and Myanmar ahead of the expected landfall early Friday (17 May) of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen.

"Mahasen could be life threatening for millions of people in Bangladesh, Myanmar and India," warned Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos. "Humanitarian organizations are working with Governments in Bangladesh and Myanmar to help people prepare for the cyclone."

At present Mahasen is expected to hit just north of the Bangladeshi city of Chittagong, near the border with Myanmar. While it remains too early to predict what the impact of the cyclone will be, there are fears that it could threaten millions of people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where tens of thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs) are currently living in temporary shelters.

“This part of the world is regularly hit by major cyclones and so everyone is taking this threat extremely seriously and making sure the right measures are in place to mitigate the impact and place everyone on alert,” said Oliver Lacey-Hall, the head of OCHA’s regional office for Asia and the Pacific.

Bangladesh
The Government of Bangladesh has raised the cyclone signal level to four (on a scale of six). Regular coordination meetings are being held at all levels of government and humanitarian agencies in areas most likely to be affected have started preparedness activities, including pre-positioning emergency supplies.

“Bangladesh is often seen as a global leader in disaster risk reduction because of the work that has been done to build preparedness in disaster prone areas,” said Neal Walker, the Resident Coordinator for Bangladesh.

These measures, which include the training of community volunteers, the establishment of disaster-preparedness drills and the construction of cyclone shelters, have combined to reduce the impact of cyclones on the low-lying, heavily populated and disaster-prone country.

Bangladesh’s culture of preparedness was largely born out of the devastating 1971 Cyclone Bhola that claimed an estimated 400,000 lives. In 2009, when Cyclone Aila struck, volunteers helped evacuate thousands of people from the disaster area, saving countless lives. The death toll from that tragedy was less than 200.

Myanmar
Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos has expressed her sorrow at the apparent death of people who drowned while evacuating ahead of Tropical Storm Mahasen.

“I am deeply saddened by the loss of lives of the Myanmar coast during this evacuation,” said Valerie Amos. “It is important for the government to ensure that people can reach safety before Mahasen hits.”

The accident occurred Monday evening (13 May) when one of the seven boats that was carrying people from a flood-prone and exposed camp in Myanmar's Rakhine State hit rocks and capsized. Fifty-eight people remain missing and are feared drowned, according to the government.

In Rakhine, the UN and NGOs have started to implement a Preparedness and Contingency plan that was developed in March of this year. This is supporting the Pre-evacuation Plan the Government has developed in the last few days. Authorities have started the process of evacuating tens of thousands of people who were displaced by inter-communal violence over the past 12 months. They are being moved from camps to safe buildings or shelters.

“We are very concerned about the situation of displaced people in Rakhine State, particularly those in low-lying camps, and we are working urgently with the government to find solutions that are viable, said Mr. Lacey-Hall. “But we are running against time and lives are at risk.”

The Government has identified 39,000 IDPs that are the most vulnerable and are being moved as part of stage one of their evacuation plan. The next stage would see a further 100,000 IDPs moved.



With Tropical Cyclone Mahasen expected to make landfall on 17 May, the UN is concerned about tens of thousands of people who were displaced by inter-communal violence in Myanmar's Rakhine State and who are now living in camps. Credit: IRIN/Brendan Brady

From: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Quoting cg2916:
Latest ASCAT... it's still got a while:



You mean OSCAT
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you think this PDO fluctuation may have an effect on ENSO?
Theoreically it should have some effect, but the extent of that effect is currently being overridden by forcing within the Walker circulation (zonal cell within the tropics) and oceanic rossby waves as evident by the La Niña look to the SST pattern along the equatorial Pacific.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Bangladesh and Myanmar prepare for Tropical Cyclone

Governments and aid agencies have activated disaster response mechanisms in Bangladesh and Myanmar ahead of the expected landfall early Friday (17 May) of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen.

"Mahasen could be life threatening for millions of people in Bangladesh, Myanmar and India," warned Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos. "Humanitarian organizations are working with Governments in Bangladesh and Myanmar to help people prepare for the cyclone."

At present Mahasen is expected to hit just north of the Bangladeshi city of Chittagong, near the border with Myanmar. While it remains too early to predict what the impact of the cyclone will be, there are fears that it could threaten millions of people in northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where tens of thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs) are currently living in temporary shelters.

“This part of the world is regularly hit by major cyclones and so everyone is taking this threat extremely seriously and making sure the right measures are in place to mitigate the impact and place everyone on alert,” said Oliver Lacey-Hall, the head of OCHA’s regional office for Asia and the Pacific.

Bangladesh
The Government of Bangladesh has raised the cyclone signal level to four (on a scale of six). Regular coordination meetings are being held at all levels of government and humanitarian agencies in areas most likely to be affected have started preparedness activities, including pre-positioning emergency supplies.

“Bangladesh is often seen as a global leader in disaster risk reduction because of the work that has been done to build preparedness in disaster prone areas,” said Neal Walker, the Resident Coordinator for Bangladesh.

These measures, which include the training of community volunteers, the establishment of disaster-preparedness drills and the construction of cyclone shelters, have combined to reduce the impact of cyclones on the low-lying, heavily populated and disaster-prone country.

Bangladesh’s culture of preparedness was largely born out of the devastating 1971 Cyclone Bhola that claimed an estimated 400,000 lives. In 2009, when Cyclone Aila struck, volunteers helped evacuate thousands of people from the disaster area, saving countless lives. The death toll from that tragedy was less than 200.

Myanmar
Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos has expressed her sorrow at the apparent death of people who drowned while evacuating ahead of Tropical Storm Mahasen.

“I am deeply saddened by the loss of lives of the Myanmar coast during this evacuation,” said Valerie Amos. “It is important for the government to ensure that people can reach safety before Mahasen hits.”

The accident occurred Monday evening (13 May) when one of the seven boats that was carrying people from a flood-prone and exposed camp in Myanmar's Rakhine State hit rocks and capsized. Fifty-eight people remain missing and are feared drowned, according to the government.

In Rakhine, the UN and NGOs have started to implement a Preparedness and Contingency plan that was developed in March of this year. This is supporting the Pre-evacuation Plan the Government has developed in the last few days. Authorities have started the process of evacuating tens of thousands of people who were displaced by inter-communal violence over the past 12 months. They are being moved from camps to safe buildings or shelters.

“We are very concerned about the situation of displaced people in Rakhine State, particularly those in low-lying camps, and we are working urgently with the government to find solutions that are viable, said Mr. Lacey-Hall. “But we are running against time and lives are at risk.”

The Government has identified 39,000 IDPs that are the most vulnerable and are being moved as part of stage one of their evacuation plan. The next stage would see a further 100,000 IDPs moved.



With Tropical Cyclone Mahasen expected to make landfall on 17 May, the UN is concerned about tens of thousands of people who were displaced by inter-communal violence in Myanmar's Rakhine State and who are now living in camps. Credit: IRIN/Brendan Brady

From: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs


Its good to see that they're preparing properly with the help of the UN. Hopefully that means less fatalities
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
where do you find those images? I was planning a trip 'up north' to go fishing this weekend, and I wanted to make sure the lake was ice-free before I drive out =p



The MODIS images I post here originate from either the LANCE-MODIS Webmapping Service and NASA's Worldview Alpha. A search engine search should bring you to one or the other page :D
ASCAT of 90E






CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN ASCAT

and OSCAT
look guys...
WTH!!!!

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel
Catch an all new #ReelRivals that starts right now!


Please tell me this ins't a reality show about fishing????
another area of disturbed weather east of 90E. This area is showing signs of organization, and could well become 91E in a few days time
Quoting hurricanes2018:
look guys...


what are we supposed to see?
Afternoon/evening everyone.

The structure of 90E has slightly improved today with developing a low level center. I am planning to do a blog update late tomorrow night regarding on this system.

Daily update on 90E.

*Not official and percentage is based off of a 72 hour period*


I like your graphics cyclonekid. I see you doing well as a TV meteorologist or a forecast graphics designer.
Low level center remains elongated.

It appears that the low level center is now completely underneath the convection.

Quoting cyclonekid:
Daily update on 90E.

*Not official and percentage is based off of a 72 hour period*




Hey kid what is the CYCKID POD for really?
Quoting AussieStorm:
WTH!!!!

The Weather Channel %u200F@weatherchannel
Catch an all new #ReelRivals that starts right now!


Please tell me this ins't a reality show about fishing????


there are plenty of reality shows on fishing..especially on ESPN and PBS on sunday mornings..I havent watched one in years..
After little activity for 24 hours, I kind of thought the Sun might be calming down for the time being, but I guess I was wrong, as it has just fired off its fourth X class solar flare in (almost exactly) 48 hours. Sunspot 1748 again. It hasn't peaked yet, currently at X1 class.

Edit: It looks to be peaking now around X1.2, the weakest of the four but still quite impressive.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey kid what is the CYCKID POD for really?


Just my opinion based on a scale of 1 - 10 on tropical cyclogenesis in the next 72 hours.
Quoting AussieStorm:
WTH!!!!

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel
Catch an all new #ReelRivals that starts right now!


Please tell me this ins't a reality show about fishing????


Ugh, don't remind me.

The reality shows on TWC really need to get off that channel. All this non-weather related crap started with Coast Guard Alaska.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Ugh, don't remind me.

The reality shows on TWC really need to get off that channel. All this non-weather related crap started with Coast Guard Alaska.




hmmm no they don't i llike it if you don't like it or any of you don't like it don't watch the weather ch
so the 18z GFS has picked up the east coast disturbance off of Florida as the 12z Euro but stronger..








12z Euro


Hello Kori how are you?
well here we go...

Invest 90E...

click on image for larger size
'Tis the season trHUrrIXC5MMX!
90E Rainbow.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hello Kori how are you?


Hey Brian! All's fine here. How are you?
I'm good Kori. Or maybe crafty. Notice how I greeted you before you came in? :)
Quoting Hurricane1216:
The GEM sees little motion in that aforementioned Nicaragua tropical system prior to eventual landfall, which may lead to it becoming a large rainmaker. Here's a loose interpretation of the storm's track, just based off of pressures. Track starts at 6z on May 20 and is set to 6 hour intervals until 12z on May 24, in typical Wikipedia fashion.


was this 2008 Alma?
TXPZ21 KNES 150016
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 14/2345Z

C. 7.4N

D. 101.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LLCC WITH LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING
THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. MI DATA NOT USEFUL YET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm good Kori. Or maybe crafty. Notice how I greeted you before you came in? :)


Yeah... Real-time updating will do that. ;)
TEST TEST TEST TEST
TEST TEST TEST TEST
Yeah but you would have made me look silly if you hadn't commented :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Yeah but you would have made me look silly if you hadn't commented :)


Drat, you're right. And I consider myself intelligent...

/wrists
Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems


•No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings
POSS T.C.F.A.
90E/INV/XX

Quoting ncstorm:


there are plenty of reality shows on fishing..especially on ESPN and PBS on sunday mornings..I havent watched one in years..
Thats ok the Weather Channel would be better at showing Fishing shows and not Weather! What a shame not long ago I was a big Fan of the Weather channel!!
anyone have a weathertap account cannot get into the site is it down or something got no info but this


The webpage cannot be found
HTTP 404
Most likely causes:
•There might be a typing error in the address.
•If you clicked on a link, it may be out of date
Keeper I had a similar message when trying to get into Wunderground around 9:15 p.m. EDT
No problem to enter from Puerto Rico.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anyone have a weathertap account cannot get into the site is it down or something got no info but this


The webpage cannot be found
HTTP 404
Most likely causes:
•There might be a typing error in the address.
•If you clicked on a link, it may be out of date



nop all good on this end it may be some nut I may have on Ignore that posted some in worng or did not do it right in the link


wish that's why if you are going too be testing stuff you need too test it in your own blog 1st too make sure its not going too mess some in up in the mail blog if you are going too post links they need too be tested in your own blog so that way your not going too mess up some in the main blog and if your link works %100 then you can post it after testing it in your own blog
90E is starting to get a comma shape:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
No problem to enter from Puerto Rico.
ok now iam getting this message when i type in weathertap instead of hitting my link


Site is temporarily down for maintenance
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop all good on this end it may be some nut I may have on Ignore that posted some in worng or did not do it right in the link


wish that's why if you are going too be testing stuff you need too test it in your own blog 1st too make sure its not going too mess some in up in the mail blog if you are going too post links they need too be tested in your own blog so that way your not going too mess up some in the main blog and if your link works %100 then you can post it after testing it in your own blog
what are ya talking abouy taz me

only test i done was a navy storm track test
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
anyone have a weathertap account cannot get into the site is it down or something got no info but this


The webpage cannot be found
HTTP 404
Most likely causes:
%u2022There might be a typing error in the address.
%u2022If you clicked on a link, it may be out of date


Keep..
I'm a member there and I think you are too..
I'm getting the same message..

Oh..
Ok maintenance..
Thanks..
0z GFS at 87 hours:

Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm no they don't i llike it if you don't like it or any of you don't like it don't watch the weather ch

Taz, what does a reality fishing program have got to do with WEATHER???? It's called The Weather Channel for a reason. Maybe they should change their name to "All Crud and a little bit of weather".
Quoting Tazmanian:



nop all good on this end it may be some nut I may have on Ignore that posted some in worng or did not do it right in the link


wish that's why if you are going too be testing stuff you need too test it in your own blog 1st too make sure its not going too mess some in up in the mail blog if you are going too post links they need too be tested in your own blog so that way your not going too mess up some in the main blog and if your link works %100 then you can post it after testing it in your own blog


Nice suggestion, Taz, thanks! I had no idea you tested things like that. WTG! :)

BTW, good to see you! And, folks are saying this season is looking like trouble, but I sure want to know what your thoughts are on the upcoming season, please. TIA!
90E







Quoting AussieStorm:

Taz, what does a reality fishing program have got to do with WEATHER???? It's called The Weather Channel for a reason. Maybe they should change their name to "All Crud and a little bit of weather".



"Forecasting the End" and "Deadliest Space Weather" are OK. Not the rest. "Reef Wranglers" is the low point so far.
Quoting AussieStorm:
90E









Has a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



"Forecasting the End" and "Deadliest Space Weather" are OK. Not the rest. "Reef Wranglers" is the low point so far.

If it's got to do with weather, then sure have it on The Weather Channel. But not stuff like Reel whatever and what you said and the others.
Poll time, just for fun.   The first named system in the Atlantic Basin this year will form...
A) before June 1
B) sometime between June 1 - June 15
C) sometime between June 16 - June 30
D) sometime in July
E) after July 31

I go with B, since the MJO could be in our neck of the woods at that time, and maybe the upper air pattern may be more favorable than it is currently.
Quoting Civicane49:


Has a nice curved band in the eastern semicircle.

Yeah, 90E is getting it's act together. The next ASCAT and OSCAT pass will be interesting.
Quoting lobdelse81:
Poll time, just for fun.   The first named system in the Atlantic Basin this year will form...
A) before June 1
B) sometime between June 1 - June 15
C) sometime between June 16 - June 30
D) sometime in July
E) after July 31

I go with B, since the MJO could be in our neck of the woods at that time, and maybe the upper air pattern may be more favorable than it is currently.

I agree, B for me.
Welcome to the official start of eastern Pacific hurricane season!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
5:30 AM IST May 15 2013
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved northeastward during the past 3 hours and now lays centered near 16.0N 87.0E, about 800 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman Island, 450 km southeast of Vishakhapatnan, India, 480 km south of Paradip, India, and 870 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

System is likely to move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong at around 23:30 PM IST (Thursday)

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5. The shear pattern of the system continues. The convective cloud is sheared to the west of the low level circulation center by about 0.6 degrees. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 12.0N to 18.0N and west of 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow. An anticyclonic circulation lies over east central Nay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10-15 knots the over the system and northeast sector and 10-20 knots in other sectors. Upper level divergence has decrease during past 6 hours. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no significant change during the past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over the storm area and decreased gradually towards northern Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 4 with amplitude equal to 2. It is favorable for intensification and north northeastward movement of the system.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northeastward movement of the system towards Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast and landfall over Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong between 17:30 - 23:30 PM IST (Thursday). However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. GFS continues to maintain initial intensity as a depression until landfall. ECMWF model maintains cyclonic storm intensity for next 24 hours and weakens gradually thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity of cyclonic storm until landfall. UKMO and JMA suggest gradual increase in intensity until landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.2N 87.8E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 19.2N 89.4E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 22.2N 92.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
lobdelse81 I am going with 'D'.
Quoting bigwes6844:
Welcome to the official start of eastern Pacific hurricane season!


Timed nearly perfectly.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Timed nearly perfectly.
yeah my phone almost messed it up for me
Quoting bigwes6844:
Welcome to the official start of eastern Pacific hurricane season!

Isn't the start at 5am when the 1st T.W.O is issued by the NHC?


Invest 90E, 13.05.15/0445
Starting to band:



Should be enough to garner Dvorak classifications later today.
Invest 90E:

Satellite intensity estimates are T1.0, which is equivalent to 25 knots.

15/0545 UTC 7.5N 102.2W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific
Quoting Civicane49:
Satellite intensity estimates are T1.0, which is equivalent to 25 knots.

15/0545 UTC 7.5N 102.2W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific


There you go.
Quoting KoritheMan:


There you go.


Just beginning...
Quoting Civicane49:


Just beginning...


Should see the T numbers increase to at least 1.5 by this evening from both agencies. If current trends continue, though, we may see a tropical cyclone in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Need to see if its organization isn't simply diurnal, though. Many developing systems sputter during the daytime.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Should see the T numbers increase to at least 1.5 by this evening from both agencies. If current trends continue, though, we may see a tropical cyclone in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Need to see if its organization isn't simply diurnal, though. Many developing systems sputter during the daytime.


I agree. 90E is continuing to organize nicely and should see the T numbers increase later on. The system still needs to detach itself from the ITCZ/monsoon trough, in order to organize further into a tropical cyclone. But it looks like it's on its way.
Its 850 mb velocity has gradually become less elongated than earlier.


Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't the start at 5am when the 1st T.W.O is issued by the NHC?
that is true.
Current global SST anomalies remain favorable for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
8:30 AM IST May 15 2013
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved further north northeastward during the past 12 hours at the speed of 8 knots and now lays near 16.5N 87.0E, about 850 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman Sea, 430 km east southeast of Vishakapatnam, India, 430 km south southeast of Paradip, India, and 820 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

System is forecast to intensify further and move northeastward, crossing Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong during the night of May 16th.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5. The system has developed a spiral band pattern. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 14.5N to 20.0N west of 89.0E, adjoining northern coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -90C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure is 993 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
9 HRS: 17.5N 88.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 19.2N 89.4E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 22.2N 92.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
8:30 AM IST May 15 2013
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved further north northeastward during the past 12 hours at the speed of 8 knots and now lays near 16.5N 87.0E, about 850 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman Sea, 430 km east southeast of Vishakapatnam, India, 430 km south southeast of Paradip, India, and 820 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

System is forecast to intensify further and move northeastward, crossing Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong during the night of May 16th.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5. The system has developed a spiral band pattern. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 14.5N to 20.0N west of 89.0E, adjoining northern coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -90C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure is 993 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
9 HRS: 17.5N 88.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 19.2N 89.4E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 22.2N 92.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)


Center looks less exposed than earlier. Microwave still unimpressive, though.
system is intensifying as mentioned by the pressure falling.
Quoting bigwes6844:
that is true.

so you went off a bit early. There is medicine you can get to help with that. LOL
TXPZ21 KNES 150605
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 15/0545Z

C. 7.5N

D. 102.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN 0255Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LL
CIRCULATION. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
Latest ATCF update says that 90E is up to 30 knots and down to 1005 mb.

EP, 90, 2013051506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1023W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ
Quoting KoritheMan:


Center looks less exposed than earlier. Microwave still unimpressive, though.


Not really that much better.



Quoting Civicane49:
Latest ATCF update says that 90E is up to 30 knots and down to 1005 mb.

EP, 90, 2013051506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1023W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ


Slowly but surely Alvin will take shape. Typical Monsoon Low.
The cloud pattern of 90E continues to improve with the development of spiral bands and persistent shower and thunderstorm activity concentrated within the center over the past few hours.

Anyone want some snow or are you all sick of snow now.

We got snow again. about 2-3 inches so far.



Quoting AussieStorm:

so you went off a bit early. There is medicine you can get to help with that. LOL
Aussie i need it to the way the pollen is in new orleans! And i do garden and unload trucks. go figure that!LOL
1748 Flares Again (X1.2)
Sunspot 1748 does it again. For the fourth time, the active region has produced a major X-Class solar flare. The latest event measured X1.2 and peaked at 01:47 UTC.

CME Update: The latest X-Flare event did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. Because the blast location is still not in prime position, a majority of the plasma was directed away from Earth. There does appear to be a very minor Earth directed component, however it should have only a minor effect on our geomagnetic field at best.

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 80%
X-Class: 50%



Link
almost on land!

currently in New Orleans:
Clear
69°
Real Feel 68°
Humidity: 78%
Pressure: 30.16 in ↓
UV Index: 0
Cloud Cover: 0%
Ceiling: 36200 ft
Dew Point: 62° F
Visibility: 10 mi
Very cool night
Looks like it's finally going to happen, folks...
A SEVERAL DAY EPISODE OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING DAY 4 /SAT. 5-18/...AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 /MON. 5-20/.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEGINS AFFECTING THE PLAINS DAY 4. THE TROUGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO ENTER THE PLAINS DAY 5...AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW DAY 6 AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROTATES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS.

AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE SYSTEM IS LIKEWISE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...LIKELY FOCUSING DAILY
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE -- LIMITING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG SRN REACHES OF THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
PERMIT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW.


THE GREATEST THREAT DAY 4 WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD
INTO NRN KS...AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION AND THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREATS DAY 4.

DAY 5...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS AGAIN FORECAST WHICH -- COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING FARTHER E...SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION SWD INTO KS/MO/OK AND VICINITY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DAY 6 MAY BE THE DAY OF HIGHEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL...AS A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN AXIS OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE IA/IL AREA SWWD ACROSS MO INTO
PARTS OF KS/OK/AR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THREAT MAY CONTINUE DAY 7...A BIT FARTHER E THAN DAY 6...BUT MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND HINTS OF SOMEWHAT DECREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
EVIDENT ATTM. THUS...NO OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED BEYOND DAY 6
ATTM.
Quoting bigwes6844:
Aussie i need it to the way the pollen is in new orleans! And i do garden and unload trucks. go figure that!LOL

Well, go are your Dr for that medication, better ask your missus if it's ok too. She might like you going off early.

Btw, Is it 5am on the west coast yet?
No wonder y the invest became one look at the water temps in the Pacific!



Quoting Luisport:
1748 Flares Again (X1.2)
Sunspot 1748 does it again. For the fourth time, the active region has produced a major X-Class solar flare. The latest event measured X1.2 and peaked at 01:47 UTC.

CME Update: The latest X-Flare event did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. Because the blast location is still not in prime position, a majority of the plasma was directed away from Earth. There does appear to be a very minor Earth directed component, however it should have only a minor effect on our geomagnetic field at best.

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 80%
X-Class: 50%



Link
BREAKING NEWS: 4th X FLARE - 15 May 2013 Link
The Sun's polar fields are now at the point of a possible reversal
(solar polar fields map **Updated May 12, 2013!**)


COMMENT:NOAA AR 1748 rotated into view, it is still not possible to infer
its
magnetic configuration but it is a big region with mixed magnetic
polarities. It produced two X-class flares in past 24h and can produce
more. The first one was an X2.8 with peak at 16:05 UT on May 13, the second
one an X3.2 at 01:11 UT today. Both were related to radio bursts and fast
limb CMEs. The first CME has a speed of 1500 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of
view (decelerated with respect to the 1800 km/s seen in C2), while the
second one was travelling at 1900 km/s in LASCO C3 (accelerated from the
1600 km/s measured in C2). Due to the source region location right at the
limb, we expect at most a shock arriving to the Earth early on May 15
(09:00 UT for the first one and 13:00 UT for the second one). There is also
a CME from May 12 expected to arrive around the same time as the first CME
from yesterday. The second X flare and corresponding CME produced also a
rise on the proton flux, which is still below the threshold and seems
stable for the moment. NOAA AR 1745 has also potential for M flares. High
solar activity is expected for the next 48h. Geomagnetic conditions are
currently quiet. The possible arrival of a shock from the two halo CMEs and
a mild fast speed stream from a coronal hole may increase conditions to
active and possible minor storm levels in the next 48h


Region 11748 [N11E66] is a compact region with a strong magnetic delta structure in the leading spot section. Some loss of penumbral area was observed after the X3 flare. Further M and X class flaring is possible. C5 flares: X3.2 at 01:11 UTC. Additionally an X1.2 flare was recorded at 01:48 UTC on May 15. Both events were associated with at least partial halo CMEs.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

May 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
May 14: At least a partial halo CME was observed after the X3 event in AR 11748. The CME was fast and Earth could see a flanking impact on May 16.
May 15: A wide CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11748. A flanking impact is possible on May 17.

Link Link Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, go are your Dr for that medication, better ask your missus if it's ok too. She might like you going off early.

Btw, Is it 5am on the west coast yet?
no aussie its 230 now LOL got 2 hours to go
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms will fall in PR this afternoon but after Saturday,moisture increases in the Eastern Caribbean so stay tuned for that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC EAST OF 70W WILL
SWING BY NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OVR THE AREA LATE THU AND FRI. ANOTHER TROF WILL IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODEL TRENDS SINCE YESTERDAY SHOW A WEAKER TROF
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST FORCING STAYING NORTH OF
19.5N. AS A RESULT...GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING LESS PRECIP FOR TODAY
THAN YDAY. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL BE VERY SLOW
MOVERS DUE TO VERY WEAK OR ILL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLD FLASH
FLOODING. MID LEVEL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY FRI WITH
MODELS SHOWING SIG DRYING FRI THROUGH SAT.

LATE SAT NIGHT THRU MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL HIGH
PRES DISSIPATING AS ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED SUN AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUE AND WED...MOISTURE BECOMES VERY DEEP WITH
PW VALUES WELL OVER 2.0 INCHES AS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE INCREASES
OVR THE ISLAND. TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT NEXT WEEK
WITH GFS BEING FASTER THAN ECMWF IN BRINGING A DEEP SURGE IN
MOISTURE BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR VERY WET WEATHER MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS EQUATORIAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
15/12Z. HOWEVER...ISOLATED PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN PR AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER EASTERN PR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ FROM 15/18-23Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS UP TO 2 KFT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING 5-6 FT OVR THE WEEKEN ON
NORTHEAST SWELLS. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN WX HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 20 40 10
STT 86 79 87 79 / 20 20 20 20
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A comfortable 61 degrees this morning with a high of 81 expected later and a 20$ chance of rain later.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Breakfast burritos with eggs, chorizo, cheese and peppers, salsa on the side, banana bread, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
Good morning everyone! No good prospects concerning impending landfall of Mahasen though:

Distrustful Rohingya dig in as Burma braces for cyclone Mahasen
Evacuation of 140,000 from makeshift camps vulnerable to flooding at risk as minority Rahkine Buddhists refuse to move
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 15 May 2013 10.31 BST

BBC 15 May 2013 Last updated at 09:59 GMT
Cyclone Mahasen: Bangladesh orders coastal evacuation
Hundreds of thousands of people are being evacuated from coastal areas of Bangladesh threatened by Cyclone Mahasen.

Danger signal '7' for Mahasen
bdnews24.com desk bdnews24.com desk
Published: 2013-05-15 05:20:09.0 Updated: 2013-05-15 10:03:05.0

...Low-lying areas of coastal districts Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, ... and their offshore islands and chars are expected to be hit by tidal waves up to seven feet high....

...The cyclone will cross the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh and Myanmar, accompanied by tidal waves of up to five metres high, rain and gusts, it said.....





Good Morning Folks...Coffee is hot,grap a cup or two.....
Good morning. A pretty significant (especially by this year's standards) multi-day severe weather event looks likely Saturday-Monday. Tornado potential doesn't appear huge, but the SPC notes Monday (Day 6) probably has the highest tornado threat.

Mahasen

Source
Have to run, bye for now.
Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday! Aussie and VIV, have a great Thursday! Off to school early to get some end of year paperwork done before the kids get there.
90E...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
90E...



Looking good to me.

Looks like Mahasen is strengthening?
Happy Start of the eastern pacific hurricane season everyone! xD


East Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook


ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN




Chance of development rose from >30% to 30-50%. Seems promising :D
Right now, i think 90E is seperating from that monsoon that has been preventing development. if so, this storm could be very potent, as long as it steers clear of shear. The thing about the EP storms seems to be that shear gets them almost every time...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ALVIN AL- VIN MANUEL MAHN WELL-
BARBARA BAR- BRUH NARDA NAHR- DUH
COSME COS- MAY OCTAVE AHK- TAYV
DALILA DAH LY- LAH PRISCILLA PRIH SIH- LUH
ERICK EHR- IK RAYMOND RAY- MUND
FLOSSIE FLOSS- EE SONIA SOHN- YAH
GIL GIL TICO TEE- KOH
HENRIETTE HEN REE ETT- VELMA VELL- MUH
IVO EYE VOH- WALLIS WAHL- LIS
JULIETTE JEW LEE EHT- XINA ZEE- NAH
KIKO KEE- KO YORK YORK
LORENA LOW RAY- NA ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS USED IN LIEU
OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. NHC IS ALSO ON
FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.G OV.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ALVIN AL- VIN MANUEL MAHN WELL-
BARBARA BAR- BRUH NARDA NAHR- DUH
COSME COS- MAY OCTAVE AHK- TAYV
DALILA DAH LY- LAH PRISCILLA PRIH SIH- LUH
ERICK EHR- IK RAYMOND RAY- MUND
FLOSSIE FLOSS- EE SONIA SOHN- YAH
GIL GIL TICO TEE- KOH
HENRIETTE HEN REE ETT- VELMA VELL- MUH
IVO EYE VOH- WALLIS WAHL- LIS
JULIETTE JEW LEE EHT- XINA ZEE- NAH
KIKO KEE- KO YORK YORK
LORENA LOW RAY- NA ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS USED IN LIEU
OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. NHC IS ALSO ON
FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.G OV.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ALVIN AL- VIN MANUEL MAHN WELL-
BARBARA BAR- BRUH NARDA NAHR- DUH
COSME COS- MAY OCTAVE AHK- TAYV
DALILA DAH LY- LAH PRISCILLA PRIH SIH- LUH
ERICK EHR- IK RAYMOND RAY- MUND
FLOSSIE FLOSS- EE SONIA SOHN- YAH
GIL GIL TICO TEE- KOH
HENRIETTE HEN REE ETT- VELMA VELL- MUH
IVO EYE VOH- WALLIS WAHL- LIS
JULIETTE JEW LEE EHT- XINA ZEE- NAH
KIKO KEE- KO YORK YORK
LORENA LOW RAY- NA ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS USED IN LIEU
OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. NHC IS ALSO ON
FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.G OV.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



LOL same post, within 10 seconds of eachother
366. beell
TA shoots, he scores! Edging out nrt by just a few seconds.
Quoting beell:
TA shoots, he scores! Edging out nrt by just a few seconds.


12z CMC..GFS is a little later than the CMC


06z GFS


Looks like my forecast of a tropical depression tomorrow morning was a bit slow. We should see classification later today, perhaps as early as 8am PDT (11am EDT).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like my forecast of a tropical depression tomorrow morning was a bit slow. We should see classification later today, perhaps as early as 8am PDT (11am EDT).


Great job TA13. I must say you were right this time around.
This was the 06z ATCF update. Maximum winds up to 35 mph, pressure down to 1005 millibars. The 12z update will come out within the next 20 minutes (hopefully...it's been a bit delayed).

EP, 90, 2013051506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1023W, 30, 1005, LO,
Quoting Torito:
Right now, i think 90E is seperating from that monsoon that has been preventing development. if so, this storm could be very potent, as long as it steers clear of shear. The thing about the EP storms seems to be that shear gets them almost every time...


Does it? My eyes aren't trained enough to jugde though.

AccuWeather Forecasts Above-Average Hurricane Season in Atlantic


Excerpt:

The Atlantic will probably produce an above-average 16 tropical storms this year, with eight of those strengthening into hurricanes, AccuWeather Inc. said.
Four of the systems are expected to become major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger with winds of at least 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour, according to the State College, Pennsylvania-based forecaster.
374. SuzK
Quoting Luisport:
1748 Flares Again (X1.2)
Sunspot 1748 does it again. For the fourth time, the active region has produced a major X-Class solar flare. The latest event measured X1.2 and peaked at 01:47 UTC.

CME Update: The latest X-Flare event did generate a Coronal Mass Ejection. Because the blast location is still not in prime position, a majority of the plasma was directed away from Earth. There does appear to be a very minor Earth directed component, however it should have only a minor effect on our geomagnetic field at best.

Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 80%
X-Class: 50%



Link


Now watch the weather ramp up a bit. If we get a full face-on CME from this sunspot, watch the weather ramp up a lot! These are the times NASA has been warning about.
Looks like our summertime thunderstorm pattern is going to begin Saturday across the FL Penisula. Infact some of the thunderstorms could be quite intense as we will have cold mid level temps in place. Also the Orlando area appears to be in a prime location for daily strong thunderstorms as light SE winds will cause the seabreezes to collide on the westside of Orlando.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

EXTENDED...NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LESS CONV INHIBITION
WITH WEAKENING OF RIDGE NR AREA WL ALLOW FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL
PCPN. INLAND STORM CHCS IMPROVE SAT/SUN AND BEST PLACEMENT WL BE
INLAND WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY MERGERS WL FORCE A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY. PRESENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
EARLY SIGNALS BEYOND DAY 7 SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE AND WOULD EXPECT A
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS PAST THIS TIME.
South Florida has been pretty close to the summertime rain pattern. Or at least the rain everyday pattern.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST STEERING
FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME...AND ALLOW FOR
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH.
SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ADDING THUNDER
WORDING TO THE AREA.
379. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


Does it? My eyes aren't trained enough to jugde though.



Still looks pretty embedded to me ..but thats just my opinion

Rammb Image Water Vapour Loop Embedded


Quoting Dakster:
South Florida has been pretty close to the summertime rain pattern. Or at least the rain everyday pattern.


It sure looks as if our summertime pattern is about to kick into high gear come this weekend thru all of next week. We may even have some enhancement from a SE surge of tropical moisture moving NW across the Bahamas come mid next week.
The May update for the ECMWF is out. It continues with normal to slightly above normal sea level pressures in the Atlantic. It's a lot more "white" when compared to the April forecast, however.



Ensemble mean has a relatively wet Caribbean for the peak of the season.



Still a huge discrepancy in ENSO forecast.

Quoting VR46L:


Still looks pretty embedded to me ..but thats just my opinion

Rammb Image Water Vapour Loop Embedded




It actually did seperate from the ITCZ yesterday.
I've got to leave right now, but if you're wondering if the system separated from the monsoon trough or not, go to my blog and look at the comments section...Tom posted the GFS wind map and drew the monsoon trough on there. Though the trough is in close proximity, it is not a part of the system any longer. This is further evidenced by stronger rotation on satellite.
From AccuWeather
Atlantic Hurricane Season Key Points:


1. The season may begin quickly this year with development in the Caribbean in June.
2. AccuWeather.com is predicting strong storms this year with a strength of category 2 or higher.
3. Areas along the East coast to the Gulf of Mexico are at risk for impacts from a tropical system.
Link
387. SLU
There's been a huge change in the ECMWF's outlook with lower pressures expected relative to the previous forecast.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Also the rainfall anomalies have increased significantly and it appears that the ECMWF wants to focus most of the activity this year in the Caribbean with less activity in the subtropics like last year.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

OOOOH 80%+ development on 90E!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The May update for the ECMWF is out. It continues with normal to slightly above normal sea level pressures in the Atlantic. It's a lot more "white" when compared to the April forecast, however.



Ensemble mean has a relatively wet Caribbean for the peak of the season.



Still a huge discrepancy in ENSO forecast.



That forecast from the ECMWF is showing Higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic during the Peak of Hurricane Season. Depending on if we get Cape Verde type systems to intensify dramatically or not, such a high pressure may prevent many storms from curving out to sea, like they did in 2010, 2011, and 2012. In 2008, there was a strong High Pressure over the North Atlantic in late-August, which prevented Hurricane Ike from recurving out to Sea. Also interesting that there is enhanced precipitation in the Carribean as well, implying that this model is forecasting Tropical Cyclones to primarily originate from the Carribean, instead of form off of Cape Verde.


Why in the world... the rain always favors the same areas in the Lesser Antilles since late march!!



I can't even count how many times the central islands got wet this year. If you look at the sat pics, look who is getting rain right now... Of course not my area.

It's the first time I see such a rainfall pattern. Over 30 inches has fallen in some areas of Martinique (probably same for Guadeloupe and Dominica) in april... while we only got a littler over 1 inch (not even the average).

Well this is quite irritating. Maybe I should stop hoping for rain, and stop looking at those models and sat pics.
This 37 GHz TRMM pass was at 09Z and continues to show slightly improved structure with 90 E:



Here is a 4 panel from the same pass:

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It sure looks as if our summertime pattern is about to kick into high gear come this weekend thru all of next week. We may even have some enhancement from a SE surge of tropical moisture moving NW across the Bahamas come mid next week.


85 here today and then 90 tomorrow for my area..love it!!
393. SLU
The ECMWF has also fallen in line with the UKMET with the lower pressures in the MDR and the Caribbean with higher pressures in the subtropics. Also, most if not all of the seasonal models have consistently showed a corridor of wet anomalies from Africa to the Caribbean indicating an active Cape Verde season with lots of westward-moving disturbances. The ECMWF has began to fall in line with that too.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
From the Atlantic TWD...Sorry if it has been already posted...

AT THE REQUEST OF METEO-FRANCE AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB) WILL BEGIN PROVIDING...ON A TEMPORARY
BASIS...A SEPARATE DETAILED SECTION WITHIN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDAT). IT WILL COVER BOTH HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE SHARED GEOGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES
ON THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

THE SECTION BEGINS ON MAY 15 2013 AT 1800 UTC...2 PM EDT. IT
WILL PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS
ON ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
Quoting VR46L:


Still looks pretty embedded to me ..but thats just my opinion

Rammb Image Water Vapour Loop Embedded




Good Morning VR46L..
Your right..
90E is stuck in the monsoon for now..
And Torito I'm seeing it but not feeling it..
As for AccuWeathers predictions..
I posted exactly the same #'s in March on Max's chart..
16/6/4..
We shall see..
Also shear in the EPac to the north won't affect 90E as I see it will consolidate farther west than previously predicted..
JMO after 1 cup of coffee this am.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning VR46L..
Your right..
90E is stuck in the monsoon for now..
And Torito I'm seeing it but not feeling it..
As for AccuWeathers pridictions..
I posted exactly the same #'s in March..
16/6/4..
We shall see..
Also shear in the EPac to the north won't affect 90E as I see it will consolidate farther west than previously predicted..


Yeah it will be difficult to predict with shear changing every hour on the models... cant ever get a consistant number.
397. SLU
If you can use your imagination, you will be able to predict the hurricane tracks for the upcoming hurricane season by looking at that graphic.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Good Morning All..
59 degrees and 96rh with dew at 58..
Once again new low temp record of 54 breaking 1999 record of 57..
Everything is wet with dew this am..
My newspaper is soaked.. :(

Beach looks inviting this am..

Quoting SLU:
If you can use your imagination, you will be able to predict the hurricane tracks for the upcoming hurricane season by looking at that graphic.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


East coast of northern and central Florida better look out. And I'm going there in August!
84 all week for me than Saturday rain coming go up to 60% all week!!:)
Quoting ncstorm:


85 here today and then 90 tomorrow for my area..love it!!
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.
June origin points for hurricanes in the atlantic.

06z Navgem..
this is the 180 hour frame..seems the models are latching on development in the caribbean but some are either slower or faster than others

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902013) 20130515 1200 UTC


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 103.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 101.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 7.2N LONM24 = 98.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305151245
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren 15-May-2013 12:45 1.8K
Good Morning. My birthday is today which is why I am such a fan of the start of the E-Pac season and my first name starts with an "A". Was hoping for Alvin today (and a fish storm to boot) but will settle for hitting the Florida Lotto or Powerball later tonight.

Will let Yall know tommorow morning whether I say good bye and retire to the Florida Keys or spend another year on the Blog...............
All the CMC Ensemble have a TD or TS from 204HR to 240HR E of S FL or in the Caribbean!
Link
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. My birthday is today which is why I am such a fan of the start of the E-Pac season and my first name starts with an "A". Was hoping for Alvin today (and a fish storm to boot) but will settle for hitting the Florida Lotto or Powerball later tonight.

Will let Yall know tommorow morning whether I say good bye and retire to the Florida Keys or spend another year on the Blog...............


Happy B'Day weathermanwannabe !!
And good luck with the Lottery..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305151245
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Lets the game begin.Witing six months to say this ;)
Quoting pcola57:


Happy B'Day weathermanwannabe !!
And good luck wit the Lottery..


Big chance that I will be back here tomorrow and have to wait on the Keys thing............. :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. My birthday is today which is why I am such a fan of the start of the E-Pac season and my first name starts with an "A". Was hoping for Alvin today (and a fish storm to boot) but will settle for hitting the Florida Lotto or Powerball later tonight.

Will let Yall know tommorow morning whether I say good bye and retire to the Florida Keys or spend another year on the Blog...............


Well this storm may be a TD by the end of the day, according to the NHC...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This just out. Hot off the press. Looks like I was wrong with 90.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902013) 20130515 1200 UTC


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 103.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 101.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 7.2N LONM24 = 98.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902013) 20130515 1200 UTC


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 103.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 101.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 7.2N LONM24 = 98.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Do you have the link to the text of the bams?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren 15-May-2013 12:45 1.8K



They are changing the name of the invest?
Wind speed of 90E are now up to 35Kt.
Quoting ncstorm:
06z Navgem..
this is the 180 hour frame..seems the models are latching on development in the caribbean but some are either slower or faster than others



The rain is for the central Lesser Antilles again.
Quoting Torito:



They are changing the name of the invest?

Redesignating it rather. It is now EP01, the first tropical cyclone of the season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Redesignating it rather. It is now EP01, the first tropical cyclone of the season.


Ahh ok, got it now.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. My birthday is today which is why I am such a fan of the start of the E-Pac season and my first name starts with an "A". Was hoping for Alvin today (and a fish storm to boot) but will settle for hitting the Florida Lotto or Powerball later tonight.

Will let Yall know tommorow morning whether I say good bye and retire to the Florida Keys or spend another year on the Blog...............


Happy Birthday! :)
EP, 01, 2013051512, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1031W, 30, 1006, TD
TD!:)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
EP, 01, 2013051512, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1031W, 30, 1006, TD
I dont want to see another iniki...

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From AccuWeather
Atlantic Hurricane Season Key Points:


1. The season may begin quickly this year with development in the Caribbean in June.
2. AccuWeather.com is predicting strong storms this year with a strength of category 2 or higher.
3. Areas along the East coast to the Gulf of Mexico are at risk for impacts from a tropical system.
Link


Way to stick your neck out Accuguess. That 3rd point there is a ballsy forecast. Margusity must have devoted a lot of time for that one.
nvest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren 15-May-2013 12:45 1.8K

Also found this interesting. Going to be an interesting season!

Quoting Chucktown:


Way to stick your neck out Accuguess. That 3rd point there is a ballsy forecast. Margusity must have devoted a lot of time for that one.

LMAO. Yeah. Talk about a no-brainer, Chuck!
429. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning VR46L..
Your right..
90E is stuck in the monsoon for now..
And Torito I'm seeing it but not feeling it..
As for AccuWeathers predictions..
I posted exactly the same #'s in March on Max's chart..
16/6/4..
We shall see..
Also shear in the EPac to the north won't affect 90E as I see it will consolidate farther west than previously predicted..
JMO after 1 cup of coffee this am.. :)


Good Morning Pcola

Thanks for your imput ... I do think it will make it but still has a little work to do

Imagine you have predicted the same as Accu !
How bout that CMC???..got to give it props now..
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
nvest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren 15-May-2013 12:45 1.8K

Also found this interesting. Going to be an interesting season!



Yeah, models are going all screwy right now.


01E
Looking at the animation from WU..
Looks like frontal shear heading towards 90E/EP01 from the NW..



Three out of four computer models have it curving north towards the Baja Penn..

Quoting pcola57:
Looking at the animation from WU..
Looks like frontal shear heading towards 90E/EP01 from the NW..



Three out of four computer models have it curving north towards the Baja Penn..



LOL ships model data.


30,40,56,65,65,61

looks ok, but i never trust ships..
435. VR46L
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. My birthday is today which is why I am such a fan of the start of the E-Pac season and my first name starts with an "A". Was hoping for Alvin today (and a fish storm to boot) but will settle for hitting the Florida Lotto or Powerball later tonight.

Will let Yall know tommorow morning whether I say good bye and retire to the Florida Keys or spend another year on the Blog...............


Happy Birthday!

Its a Cool Star sign you are born under ! LOL(its mine too)

Good Luck with Lottery

Wish mine would come in too !
Keeper of the Gate called it yesterday that the first depression of the EPAC would be after 8AM and I'm glad he called it. That's why he's the Gate Keeper, sees it already before everyone else.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Keeper of the Gate called it yesterday that the first depression of the EPAC would be after 8AM and I'm glad he called it. That's why he's the Gate Keeper, sees it already before everyone else.

Is he right every time?
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Is he right every time?


Most of the time
With the documented inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic season (Klotzbach) we will have to see how the E-Pac does over the next several weeks. If the the pending MJO pulse spins up several storms in the E-Pac, we may have to wait a month or two before we get our first Atlantic basin system....I am not sold yet on a June storm in the Atlantic.
EP, 01, 2013051512, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1031W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, M,
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
From AccuWeather
Atlantic Hurricane Season Key Points:


1. The season may begin quickly this year with development in the Caribbean in June.
2. AccuWeather.com is predicting strong storms this year with a strength of category 2 or higher.
3. Areas along the East coast to the Gulf of Mexico are at risk for impacts from a tropical system.
Link


Really? The season "may begin quickly in June" and the "east coast and Gulf of Mexico are at risk". That is some seriously good forecasting there. What's next? Expect to see thunderstorms in Florida this summer....
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Really? The season "may begin quickly in June" and the "east coast and Gulf of Mexico are at risk". That is some seriously good forecasting there. What's next? Expect to see thunderstorms in Florida this summer....

ROFL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


TD


Good Morning TD 1E

Rise and Shine
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to the text of the bams?


Link

Did Mahasen develop an eye, as the shortwave loop may indicate? Or is this just a dry spot?
Modis Water Vapor 01E..



SSMI current image..





Classic looking TD with some decent banding features
It is not a TD yet....


quote from the NHC.

There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific at this time.
Oh no! A storm has not formed in the Atlantic so far! This season has bust written all over it!
Quoting Dakster:
South Florida has been pretty close to the summertime rain pattern. Or at least the rain everyday pattern.


Not us in the SW corner, Dak! :-( Still waiting for our first summer-type thundershower here.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh no! A storm has not formed in the Atlantic so far! This season has bust written all over it!


The Atlantic season didnt even start yet.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

have to admit, this storm is getting stronger fast.
Post 440 pretty much told you the story
We will find out for sure at 11:00 what this thing is really classified as...
Today marks the beginning of the EPAC hurricane season...today we have a tropical depression that will eventually become the first named storm of the EPAC season....I introduce you to Tropical Depression 1....Good day.
if this thing gets to TS strength or higher, it would still be considered a preseason storm, as it was declared 90E 2 days ago,correct?
Quoting Torito:
if this thing gets to TS strength or higher, it would still be considered a preseason storm, correct?


No. Because today is the first day of the season.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


The Atlantic season didnt even start yet.
You obviously don't get sarcasm.


Still shows a strong low here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
You obviously don't get sarcasm.


Which is why I hate it.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


No. Because today is the first day of the season.




So, even though there was an advisory before today, it cant be considered a pre-season storm?
47n91w Are you around this morning? Wondering if you have current news on the Germann Road Fire (Douglas Co WI). I've seen reports of 3500 acres and/or up to 6800 acres. Many homes and structures lost. Hope the winds aren't too strong today and they can get it contained.
Quoting lilElla:
47n91w Are you around this morning? Wondering if you have current news on the Germann Road Fire (Douglas Co WI). I've seen reports of 3500 acres and/or up to 6800 acres. Many homes and structures lost. Hope the winds aren't too strong today and they can get it contained.

You consume any of the breakfast on the sideboard?
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 08N103W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT
1005 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
INTO A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF THE LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 07N92W TO
THE LOW PRES NEAR 08N103W TO 08N113W TO 07N123W THEN TRANSITIONS
TO AN ITCZ AXIS W OF 07N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 03N TO 07N E OF
81W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W
OF 110W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT
COVER THIS AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND LOW NEAR
08N103W MOVES FURTHER AWAY. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL
PULSE TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.
RESIDUAL SWELL TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS N-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS LOW PRES
OVER INTERIOR COLOMBIA DEEPENS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

N-NW SWELL TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL SWEEP S OF 30N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W TONIGHT...
AND PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING.

SST's very warm around 01E..

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This proton event is piking up quikly!