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Bay of Bengal Tropical Storm Mahasen remains a dangerous threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on May 13, 2013

It's always a nervous time when a tropical cyclone with the potential to intensify marches through the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal. That's because fifteen of the twenty deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms that have hit Bangladesh, India, or Myanmar. The most recent of these horrifying storms was 2008's Cyclone Nargis, which killed 146,000 people in Myanmar. The Bay of Bengal's notorious history is why hurricane forecasters are watching Tropical Cyclone Mahasen a little nervously today. Even though there has been little change to the 55 mph tropical storm over the past two days, the storm remains a potential threat to undergo rapid intensification into a dangerous major hurricane. The 11 am EDT Monday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds at 55 mph, with a motion northwest at 11 mph towards India. Satellite loops show that Mahasen has a large area of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops that reach high into the atmosphere. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. This lack of organization is also apparent on radar out of Chennai. However, the cyclone has developed a respectable upper-level outflow channel to the northwest. Wind shear has decreased to a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is continuing to decrease. Ocean waters that are an exceptionally warm 31°C (88°F), about 1°C warmer than average for this time of year. The warm ocean waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is over 90 J/kg/cm^2, which is favorable for rapid intensification.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 07:55 UTC Monday May 13, 2013. At the time, Mahasen was a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Storm-total rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen as predicted by the 00 UTC May 13, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") are expected along a wide swath just to the right of where the storm makes landfall. Bangladesh's two largest cities, Dhaka and Chittagong, are shown. If Mahasen's track occurs farther to the left, as suggested by some models, these two cities will receive Mahasen's heaviest rains. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

Forecast for Mahasen
The official forecast brings Mahasen to Category 1 strength before landfall occurs in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Thursday near 18 UTC. However, the model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models continue to show wide disagreement on the future intensity, speed, and landfall location of the storm. It is possible that wind shear will keep the storm disorganized and below hurricane strength until landfall, as suggested by the ECMWF model. However, other model guidance, such as the 00 UTC May 13 forecast from the HWRF model, bring Mahasen to Category 2 strength by Tuesday. Mahasen is currently approaching a trough of low pressure to its northwest that is expected to recurve the storm to the northeast into Bangladesh. As the recurvature process progresses today through Tuesday, wind shear should relax to a low to moderate 5 - 15 knots, and a strong upper-level outflow channel will intensify to the storm's north, aiding intensification. There is a lot of hot, dry air to the storm's northwest over India, and if this dry air gets wrapped into Mahasen's circulation, it could put the brakes on rapid intensification, though. Considering all these factors, I give a 30% chance that Mahasen will undergo rapid intensification to a Category 3 or stronger storm by Wednesday. The storm should experience higher wind shear and less oceanic heat content in the waters beneath it in the 12 hours before landfall, which should cause some weakening. But even a weakening Category 1 storm has the potential to bring a devastating storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh, and torrential rainfall will be a major flooding threat regardless of the storm's final intensity at landfall. The 00Z May 13 run of the HWRF model predicts that the Mahasen will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 16 - 30 cm (6 - 12") over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a particular concern for the thousands of Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps, as reported by the New York Times.

MJO pulse that spawned Mahasen headed towards the Atlantic
Mahasen spun up in response to an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been moving through the Indian Ocean during the past week. The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The strong MJO pulse coincided with a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (CCKW), a wave of increased heat and moisture propagating along the Equator, which helped increase thunderstorm activity. The active pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach the Western Caribbean (in a somewhat weakened state) May 21 - 25, and there will be a heightened chance of an early-season tropical storm forming in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean during that time period.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Radar out of Chennai, India

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting hurricane23:


The continued warm atl +amo +tna and the likelyhood of not seeing el nino this season points to a very busy year again. The determining factor of where a storm will make landfall is going to be dependent on what the current steering patterns are. Our atmosphere is just to complex and coupled to be able to determine what absolute locations will be impacted but, by using climatology and examining similar patterns in data, we can come to an educated conclusion of where the highest chance of seeing tropical activity could be.

In terms of this season the global-scale flow has been gradually retrograding westward,which should result in the east-coast trough moving farther inland over the central U.S. leaving the door wide open.


I've been pushing the bolded statement above for years, and you have never agreed with me until now lol.
Do I see a slight spin near the center in the last few frames or is it just my eyes playing tricks on me?

Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Florida is just "due" altogether. The only systems they've had in the past several years are a few rain-producing tropical storms. I also believe the upper Texas coastline is due. They've had nothing since Ike in 2008.


Typically Southern FL landfalls and Gulf landfalls go hand in hand. Just the nature of things.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
90E still embedded in the monsoon trough. 00z Surface Analysis



I don't know where this talk of separating from the ITCZ/monsoon trough before development can occur comes from (assuming you are making that sort of implicit leap). The system having its own inflow away from convective competition will certainly help, but there have been numerous tropical cyclones which developed within an active monsoonal flow regime/ITCZ.
Africa smells...old. Not in the sense of something rotten or sour, old in the best sense--old because we've yet to make it 'new'. 'Old' meaning the world as it was before we recast it in our image, before we scarred the land with pour plows and cut down the forests with our axes, before we dammed the rivers and drilled great holes into the earth, before we learned to take more than we need, before we stood upright, that kind of old, which is another way of saying that Africa smells new.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
5:30 AM IST May 14 2013
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northward with the speed of about 7 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays centered near 13.5N 85.5E, about 950 km northwest of Car Nicobar, 700 km northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, 600 km east of Chennai, India, and 1200 km south southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

It would move northward for some more time and thereafter recurve towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is about T2.5, CI 2.5. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over southwest Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 17.0N west of 87.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -93C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N and is providing poleward out flow. The anticyclonic circulation lies over east central Bay of Bengal. It has led to decrease in vertical wind shear around the system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10 knots in the northeast sector and 10-20 knots in other sectors. Upper level divergence is favorable for maintaining the intensity. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no change during past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 30c and ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over storm area and decreases gradually towards north Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 4 with amplitude equal to 2. It is favorable for intensification and northward movement of the system.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northward movement during next few hrs and then recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast. However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. ECMWF model maintains intensity until recurvature and weakening thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity during next 36 hrs and then intensification up to 55 knots during subsequent 24 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.0N 87.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 16.6N 88.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.6N 90.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.6N 92.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting cg2916:
Do I see a slight spin near the center in the last few frames or is it just my eyes playing tricks on me?



There has been a slight spin all day, but it's mostly mid-level.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Africa smells...old. Not in the sense of something rotten or sour, old in the best sense--old because we've yet to make it 'new'. 'Old' meaning the world as it was before we recast it in our image, before we scarred the land with pour plows and cut down the forests with our axes, before we dammed the rivers and drilled great holes into the earth, before we learned to take more than we need, before we stood upright, that kind of old, which is another way of saying that Africa smells new.


Are you getting all sentimental on us? :P
On days that I feel low and all the world seems like an idiot's tale I think of Africa. And the dark tide recedes--it has no answer for Africa.
Quoting Levi32:


I've been pushing the bolded statement above for years, and you have never agreed with me until now lol.


It's about time for a Levi/Drakoen debate/fight/arugment.
Aden is different. You know where Aden is right?

Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't know where this talk of separating from the ITCZ/monsoon trough before development can occur comes from (assuming you are making that sort of implicit leap). The system having its own inflow away from convective competition will certainly help, but there have been numerous tropical cyclones which developed within an active monsoonal flow regime/ITCZ.


No,I was just pointing out the fact,nothing else.
Good evening all.

I see that the Pacific disturbance is tagged with Invest 90E. It looks like it has a chance of becoming the first tropical cyclone of the East Pacific hurricane season.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


No,I was just pointing out the fact,nothing else.


Okay. I made sure to clarify that I wasn't putting words in your mouth. Thanks for the response.
Aden is a chaos of bare rocks and towering cliffs. The remnants of a volcano whose cataclysmic explosion had created the deep sea port of Aden, although the peninsula does not remind me of creation so much as its opposite. The colors of Aden are gray and brownish, rusty red. Gray the rocky bones of the violated earth, red the hardened lava that had bled from it.
This is the new Surface Map from TAFB that goes from Hawaii to West Africa. The black graphic was eliminated.



Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is the new Surface Map from TAFB that goes from Hawaii to West Africa. The black graphic was eliminated.



Link




so we noted
500 feet above Aden after a long walk up stairs cut in the rock is the Dakhma. A holy place. Built by the Zoroastrians. Three concentric stone circles with ledges. The circles are 20-25 feet tall and about 7 feet thick.

The Dakhma is where the Zoroastrians brought their dead. You cannot burn them. That would pollute the fire. You cannot bury them. That would pollute the earth. They laid them on the stone, the men atop the outer circle, then the women on the next inner circle and the children on the innermost.

Yemen has white buzzards. They picked the bones clean and the sun bleached the bones dry. Then they were put in ledges in the outer circle facing out, where the wind carrying sand ground the bones to dust.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Don performed a magic show and disappeared once it hit the Texas coastline.

The state of Texas in 2011 was in such a rain deficit that year, that literally the climate had became a desert where the dry air was so arid that it prevented any type of moisture from reaching the state.
Texas was to blame in the death of Tropical Storm Don and Hurricane Nate, as well as prevent Tropical Storm Lee from getting any kind of convection to blow up on its West side... Depressing year that was. Glad weve rebounded to a degree.
00Z GFS has started now at 15H
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't know where this talk of separating from the ITCZ/monsoon trough before development can occur comes from (assuming you are making that sort of implicit leap). The system having its own inflow away from convective competition will certainly help, but there have been numerous tropical cyclones which developed within an active monsoonal flow regime/ITCZ.


It is impossible to develop a mature circulation without inevitably contorting the monsoon trough and eventually breaking it. Sometimes the circulation begins to develop and close off before the wave (within the monsoon trough / ITCZ) has broken, but from my personal observation this seems to usually be a more difficult and slower process for cyclogenesis than if the monsoon trough breaks first, allowing the disturbance to quickly acquire a closed circulation.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The state of Texas in 2011 was in such a rain deficit that year, that literally the climate had became a desert where the dry air was so arid that it prevented any type of moisture from reaching the state.
Texas was to blame in the death of Tropical Storm Don and Hurricane Nate, as well as prevent Tropical Storm Lee from getting any kind of convection to blow up on its West side... Depressing year that was. Glad weve rebounded to a degree.

Ah, I remember Don.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ah, I remember Don.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 27.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



About as accurate as Imagine it would be. lol
GFS TD at 48 Hours
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS TD at 48 Hours


Looks like we might have Alvin. May arrive just in time for the start of there Hurricane season.15TH
I hope this has already been posted. If not, here it is.

Space Oddity as sung by Commander Chris Hadfield, ISS
New Hurricane Season. New Portrait :D
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Typically Southern FL landfalls and Gulf landfalls go hand in hand. Just the nature of things.


Betsy, Andrew, Katrina being good examples.
Bordering on hurricane intensity by Thursday afternoon.

Pedley now you've done it. I promised yesterday not to post Alvin and the Chipmunks vids.
535. beell
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The state of Texas in 2011 was in such a rain deficit that year, that literally the climate had became a desert where the dry air was so arid that it prevented any type of moisture from reaching the state.
Texas was to blame in the death of Tropical Storm Don and Hurricane Nate, as well as prevent Tropical Storm Lee from getting any kind of convection to blow up on its West side... Depressing year that was. Glad weve rebounded to a degree.


Most, if not all the dry air associated with the northerly winds on the west side of TS Lee originated N of Texas. End result was still the same. Strong, dry, northerly winds drove every bit of remaining moisture out of the fire fuels and brought a rash of wildfires to the eastern part of the state. The Bastrop fire was along the western edge of this dry swath.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bordering on hurricane intensity by Thursday afternoon.


Will peak at 72 hours!!!!!
Beel's satellite pic must have been taken before the fires east of Austin.
POSS T.C.F.A.
90E/INV/XX

539. beell
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Beel's satellite pic must have been taken before the fires east of Austin.


The Bastrop fire started on the 4th of September. Pic is from the 3rd.

Link
But I didn't... That will be the end of the Chipmunk videos. Hard to find a good one.

98.1 here today. Glad it was dry. No AC used either day. Should be only low 90's tomorrow.



Hmmm, maybe they don't see it that way. Thought they said 93. WU is showing 92. I'll hope for that....lol

Airport was 102 not a record (1927-109f)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bordering on hurricane intensity by Thursday afternoon.



That would actually be a hurricane, since the global models tend to struggle with accurate wind/pressure relationships insofar as exhibiting a low bias. At least, from what I've read on here.

That said, I'm not really too familiar with model specifications and mechanics. I understand them enough to furnish an accurate forecast, I know the difference between a statistical and dynamical model, and I know some of the weaknesses of specific models, but overall, Levi is probably better suited to answer things in that field than I am.
Quoting Levi32:


It is impossible to develop a mature circulation without inevitably contorting the monsoon trough and eventually breaking it. Sometimes the circulation begins to develop and close off before the wave (within the monsoon trough / ITCZ) has broken, but from my personal observation this seems to usually be a more difficult and slower process for cyclogenesis than if the monsoon trough breaks first, allowing the disturbance to quickly acquire a closed circulation.


It's definitely slower, I was just saying it can happen. Looks like we agree here. :P
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Pedley now you've done it. I promised yesterday not to post Alvin and the Chipmunks vids.



photo re moved
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm/Cool/Dry - GO EPAC
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's definitely slower, I was just saying it can happen. Looks like we agree here. :P


The fact that it can is not under debate. The point is that we almost always look for the disturbance to separate from the monsoon trough before saying it will now develop, because the large majority of the time it must do so before forming a coherent circulation. 90E is an example of that because it is in a completely favorable environment. What's preventing it from taking off? Answer: the fact that it's embedded within the monsoon trough.
Quoting Levi32:


The fact that it can is not under debate. The point is that we almost always look for the disturbance to separate from the monsoon trough before saying it will now develop, because the large majority of the time it must do so before forming a coherent circulation. 90E is an example of that because it is in a completely favorable environment. What's preventing it from taking off? Answer: the fact that it's embedded within the monsoon trough.


Duly noted. I mean that sincerely.
0z full-resolution GFS - "Alvin" at maximum intensity: barely a hurricane (purple colors indicate >64kt)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is the new Surface Map from TAFB that goes from Hawaii to West Africa. The black graphic was eliminated.



Link
I actually prefer this map to be honest.
surface heat real feel

hey guys just in case you missed it earlier here is a sample of cayman radar this just to show how the new Cayman Radar will look once the new website is created new website maybe up by the end of the month

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just in case you missed it earlier here is a sample of cayman radar this just to show how the new Cayman Radar will look once the new website is created new website maybe up by the end of the month



Is this a new installation? I don't remember there being a Cayman radar station before. If it gets up and running I can't wait to use it this season.
Quoting Levi32:


Is this a new installation? I don't remember there being a Cayman radar station before. If it gets up and running I can't wait to use it this season.


Hey Levi, Yes it's a new installation been in the works for a few years now just undergone testing and training in the past few months. It was funded by the EU in part and installed to "fill the gap" in radar coverage in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting KoritheMan:
.


Quoting Levi32:


Is this a new installation? I don't remember there being a Cayman radar station before. If it gets up and running I can't wait to use it this season.


First time cayman has a Doppler radar and is now up and operational however is not up on the CINWS website because they are revamping the site
Recent ASCAT pass of 90E (top right):



Not much in the way of strong winds yet, and the circulation is still not well-defined. The system is embedded within a uniform southerly flow regime in the monsoon trough, and there are no indications or hints of westerly wind barbs along the south side of that center. At this point, most of the rotation is mid-level, and the pass also suggests that the center is a little farther south than I had it earlier (my best estimate was closer to 10N).
Quoting wunderkidcayman:




First time cayman has a Doppler radar and is now up and operational however is not up on the CINWS website because they are revamping the site


Awesome. This should prove immensely helpful when tracking tropical cyclones in this area.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Awesome. This should prove immensely helpful when tracking tropical cyclones in this area.

Yep
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Hey Levi, Yes it's a new installation been in the works for a few years now just undergone testing and training in the past few months. It was funded by the EU in part and installed to "fill the gap" in radar coverage in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:




First time cayman has a Doppler radar and is now up and operational however is not up on the CINWS website because they are revamping the site


Great news! It will be invaluable.
I made a short blog entry on 90E for those who are interested.

First East Pacific Invest (90E) has a potential to develop
correcting:
Peak seems to be at 93 hours...........



I'M DONE ,GOOD NIGHT FOR EVERYONE!!!!!
Put all of these together with the cayman radar and what you get full Caribbean coverage

Link

Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
For all of the other regulars on here I have a question of odds for you: What do you guys think are the percentage odds of a hurricane (major or otherwise) hitting the east coast of central Florida this year?
According to Reuters, a boat that was evacuating refugees from Myanmar ahead of the storm struck rocks and sank. 100 on the boat, most feared drowned. Very, very sad.

Link

the caribbean and their radars
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the caribbean and their radars
One is needed near Nicaragua.
Quoting allancalderini:
One is needed near Nicaragua.

yep and one for Honduras
Invest 90E:

Global SST anomaly update:

Good Morning Folks! 7-day for Tampa Bay area...........
Good Morning folks!..the Coffee is perked for when you get here..nice and cool here this morning and you can feel the lower humidity which is great...
another X3.2 flare during the night...
i know we have an invest but we are 21 hours away from the eastern pacific hurricane season start up!
From the tropical weather discussion:

LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE EARLY SEASON MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N96W HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HELP
OF SHEAR VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS...BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN A BAROTROPICALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING BY WED. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-PROPAGATING DISTURBANCE...
IN THIS CASE A CARIBBEAN WAVE THAT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN SOME
CASES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks!..the Coffee is perked for when you get here..nice and cool here this morning and you can feel the lower humidity which is great...

Coffee. Yeah, coffee is good. A couple of gallons should get me started.

A very cool 52F here in SW Volusia County this morning.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
CYCLONIC STORM MAHASEN (BOB01-2013)
11:30 AM IST May 14 2013
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Mahasen over west central Bay of Bengal moved northward during the past 6 hours of the speed of 5 knots now lays near 14.0N 85.5E, about 350 km northwest of Port Blair, Andaman IS, 480 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam, India, 700 km south southwest of Paradip, India, and 1140 km southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.

It would move northeastward and cross Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong during the evening/night of May 16th.

According to satellite imagery, satellite estimated Dvorak intensity is T2.5, CI 2.5. The system has the shear pattern for the past three hours. The convective clouds is sheared to the west of low level circulation center by about 0.9. Associated intense to very intense convection are seen over west central Bay of Bengal between 10.5N to 17.5N west of 86.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N and is providing poleward out flow. The anticyclonic circulation lies over east central Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 5-10 knots in the northeast sector and 10-20 knots in other sectors. Upper level divergence has decreased during past 6 hours. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity shows no change during past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 30C and ocean thermal energy is more than 100 kj/cm2 over Storm area and decreases gradually towards northern Bay of Bengal. The MJO lies in phase 4 with amplitude equal to 2. It is favorable for intensification and northward movement of the system.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest northward movement during next few hrs and then recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast and landfall over Bangladesh coast between Khepupara and Teknaff, close to Chittagong between 12:00-18:00 PM UTC of May 16th. However, there is large divergence in the numerical weather prediction guidance with respect to intensification of the system. GFS continues to maintain initial intensity as a depression until landfall. ECMWF model maintains cyclonic storm intensity for next 24 hours and weakens gradually thereafter. Dynamical statistical models of India Meteorological Department suggest maintenance of intensity of cyclonic storm till landfall. UKMO and JMA suggest gradual increase in intensity until landfall.
Evening all. I would like to share a link
European Severe Weather Database



Right now it is 56 in Regina, Canada

55 in Chicago

70 in Phoenix

49 in Portland, me

And 48 just north of Tampa, FLORIDA

Lol.
Good morning. A trough will increase the showers starting today for PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST DRAWS CLOSER.
TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED AND EAST OF THE AREA THU.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC WILL
PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TODAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS AS STEERING WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ON WED...TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT TIME OF PEAK
HEATING AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF AXIS
ACROSS PR. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS COLLAPSE WITH MODELS
SHOWING CALM WINDS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO STRONG
FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND
FVRBL RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS.

TROF AXIS PULLS OUT WED NIGHT WITH ECMWF INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A DROP IN H85 THETAE AND PW VALUES. THE
DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SAT. ON SUN...MODELS SHOW RISING PW
VALUES AS ANOTHER TROF OVR THE BAHAMAS PROMOTES MOISTURE AND
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW...GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PORTRAYING A VERY WET SCENARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST
UNTIL THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL BTWN 14/17-22Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS UP TO 2 KFT FOR THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 87 76 / 40 0 20 20
STT 86 79 86 79 / 20 20 20 40
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Right now it is 56 in Regina, Canada

55 in Chicago

70 in Phoenix

49 in Portland, me

And 48 just north of Tampa, FLORIDA

Lol.


53.2 on da Bayou Grande.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 57 degrees this clear morning with a high later of about 84.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgium waffles with fresh fruit or maple syrup, thick slices of honey ham, bran or blueberry muffins, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone

Largo: I'd just like to offer my congratulations on the new grand babe! Saw the posts but you had left before I got my word in!

Aislinn: I accused you of leaving "visions of food and things dancing in my head" every morning! (all good though :)

Tropics: Thanks for the update! Have a camping weekend coming up for the 23rd over on Water Island. Hope that rain you are talking about for next week clears out that weekend!

Lindy
Good morning. It looks to be an active weekend for severe weather across some parts of the country, the SPC has a threat area outlined for both Saturday and Sunday.



...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE ADVANCE OF
A WRN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES DAY 5 /SAT. 5-18/. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
OCCUR A BIT FARTHER N ON DAY 5 THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST -- I.E. FROM
NRN KS NWD INTO SD. CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION MAY BE
HINDERED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH SUPERCELLS SHOULD
INITIATE INVOF A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DAY
6 /SUN. 5-19/...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE -- FROM
IA SSWWD ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS AND INTO THE NWRN OK VICINITY. STORMS
-- POSSIBLY ONGOING IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS BEGIN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 AND
BEYOND....AND THUS WILL RESTRICT AREAL OUTLINE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO DAYS 5-6 ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/14/2013
Good morning everyone. Good evening Aussie. Its 33 degrees outside here...COLD! Thankfully this cold blast won't last long!
majors making landfall in e cen fl? cant find one in recorded history. can you? only problem recorded history begins not that long ago
62 in Bismarck ND
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


53.2 on da Bayou Grande.
Thanks for the frost warning IN DELAWARE
wondering if I dare tell them it's already 80.5 and not 7:00 a.m. yet.... ;)

-L
Frost warning in MD.....

Quoting Bigblue55:
Thanks for the frost warning IN DELAWARE
Kinda shocking here today.... 77.4 degrees max yesterday and this morning it was 41.2 degrees.....



Carroll County, MD




Frost warning


Statement as of 2:04 AM EDT on May 14, 2013



... Frost warning remains in effect until 8 am EDT this morning...

* temperatures... middle 30s early Tuesday morning.

* Impacts... potential moderate damage to unprotected cold-sensitive
vegetation.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost warning means that frost is visible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.



white is winter weather...
Only supposed to get to 58 degress here today.
And here in western New England, I came very close to losing all my peaches, pears and cherries last night, with trees in bloom and a freeze warning.

Meanwhile it's 46 and raining in W. Greenland:

Link

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Right now it is 56 in Regina, Canada

55 in Chicago

70 in Phoenix

49 in Portland, me

And 48 just north of Tampa, FLORIDA

Lol.
Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie and VIV have a wonderful Wednesday.

Quoting islander101010:
majors making landfall in e cen fl? cant find one in recorded history. can you? only problem recorded history isnt not that long ago


Hurricane Andrew

Diddnt make direct landfall there, but it was intense...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all. I would like to share a link
European Severe Weather Database





Nice one (bookmarked). Thank you, Aussi.
60 here north of Orlando. Really not that cool outside compared to what some others are saying around FL.
Mahasen - not quite a beauty of a cyclone (luckily).
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
60 here north of Orlando. Really not that cool outside compared to what some others are saying around FL.



It was 46 at my house in Spring Hill.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning/afternoon/evening everyone

Largo: I'd just like to offer my congratulations on the new grand babe! Saw the posts but you had left before I got my word in!

Aislinn: I accused you of leaving "visions of food and things dancing in my head" every morning! (all good though :)

Tropics: Thanks for the update! Have a camping weekend coming up for the 23rd over on Water Island. Hope that rain you are talking about for next week clears out that weekend!

Lindy
good morning and thank you lindy..baby is doing great
gotta do so errands, be back later..stay warm folks...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT... RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BECOME LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY AID THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... CHANCES FOR SEASONABLE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. $$ MROCZKA
The CMC continues to indicate the development of a second tropical storm in the eastern Pacific by a week out.

Euro is showing a surge of deep tropical moisture crossing FL early next week bringing in very heavy rains all across the FL Penisula.


Quoting robintampabay:



It was 46 at my house in Spring Hill.


Must be some really low lying areas then north of Tampa because temps are around 60 all over Orlando. It's a little crisp here though with the lower humidity.
Good morning folks. Chilly morning in Fort Myers. Temp 63° Humidity nice and low :)

Much of the Great Plains and the Midwest will today see their warmest temperatures of the year so far, doubtless a welcome experience for many. Meanwhile, the blob of cold on the East coast this morning will be gone by tomorrow, with most areas that are chilly this morning expected to see temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer tomorrow morning.

temps

WU Weather Historian Chris Burt has posted a great new blog entry on this week's oddball US weather (Topsy-Turvy Temperature Regime for U.S. this May). He notes a number of things, such as the fact that Aberdeen, SD, warmed from 22F on Sunday morning to 92 yesterday.

Strange stuff, indeed...
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. Chilly morning in Fort Myers. Temp 63° Humidity nice and low :)



enjoy it as the 90's are only 2 days away.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


enjoy it as the 90's are only 2 days away.


So true. Will be back in the 90's this week end with slight chance for rain. No rain in my forcast til Sunday
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAY 2013 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 14:42:42 N Lon : 85:59:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 996.8mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.1 3.4

Center Temp : -49.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 63km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees

GGEM as well as the Euro is bringing a flood threat to FL come next week as deep tropical moisture moves across the Bahamas and into FL.


Nice Waffels!

Europe's sever weather looks like the US's but arcing SE instead of NE.
Different part of the Sine wave?
A pretty amazing loop of TC Mahasen. CoC pops out then convection gets back over it.

P.S.
at 8:32 UTC, did is that the exposed surface circulation on Mahasen, to the east?
Doh! Aussie beat me to it.
I like the blue shaddow of the circulation on Aussies polarised temp animation (middle of post #617)
Quoting biff4ugo:
P.S.
at 8:32 UTC, did is that the exposed surface circulation on Mahasen, to the east?

Looks like it to me.

Watch the long loop but slow it down and you'll see it.
Link
Accuweather.com is showing the rainy season kicking into full gear by next Monday across the FL Penisula. I guess it is agreeing with the Euro and CMC. Accuweather is also showing some very impressive rain totals in Orlando next week.

Scott,

The 06Z GFS out to 384 hours isn't so gung-ho on the idea of heavy rain for you guys. But that obviously can and may change. We'll have to see.

These will be opening soon, Folks.

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Scott,

The 06Z GFS out to 384 hours isn't so gung-ho on the idea of heavy rain for you guys. But that obviously can and may change. We'll have to see.



The GFS isn't agreeing the the CMC or Euro on amything right now but it is starting to trend in their direction.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The GFS isn't agreeing the the CMC or Euro on amything right now but it is starting to trend in their direction.

You know, I've noticed that sometimes. The GFS is a bit behind when it comes to latching on to solutions the other models already have. Almost like a game of Follow The Leader.
The dreaded CAP!


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE ADVANCE OF
A WRN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL RAMPING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES DAY 5 /SAT. 5-18/. DETAILS REMAIN
UNCLEAR...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
OCCUR A BIT FARTHER N ON DAY 5 THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST -- I.E. FROM
NRN KS NWD INTO SD. CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION MAY BE
HINDERED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
..AFTER WHICH SUPERCELLS SHOULD
INITIATE INVOF A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN SHIFT EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DAY
6 /SUN. 5-19/...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE -- FROM
IA SSWWD ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS AND INTO THE NWRN OK VICINITY. STORMS
-- POSSIBLY ONGOING IN SOME AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

MODELS BEGIN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 AND
BEYOND....AND THUS WILL RESTRICT AREAL OUTLINE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO DAYS 5-6 ATTM.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

You know, I've noticed that sometimes. The GFS is a bit behind when it comes to latching on to solutions the other models already have. Almost like a game of Follow The Leader.


Like the GFS being to quick to bring in the MJO to our part of the world when the Euro was much slower in bringing the MJO to the Caribbean and E-Pac.
Not sure if this was posted. This was from May 7.
Awesome Lightning Photo.


@Interior US Dept of Interior 7 May
One of the most spectacular #lightning strikes we have ever seen. Near the South Rim @GrandCanyonNPS.
Anything on 90E?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Not sure if this was posted. This was from May 7.
Awesome Lightning Photo.


@Interior US Dept of Interior 7 May
One of the most spectacular #lightning strikes we have ever seen. Near the South Rim @GrandCanyonNPS.


Cyberteddy I believe posted it last week.
It's funny how all the cool air drains down the westside of FL instead of the eastern side of the state. Almost a 20 degree difference from orlando to just north of Tampa.

633. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all. I would like to share a link
European Severe Weather Database





Thanks Aussie !! Appreciate the link !

Thankfully I dont see the severe weather to the extent that Australia and the United States does.
This was from Melbourne this past weekend.

I've been downhearted baby,
I've been downhearted baby,
Ever since the day we met
Ever since the day we met

I've been downhearted baby,
I've been down--I've been downhearted baby,
Ever since the day we met
Ever since the day we met
636. VR46L
BTW Good Morning Folks!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Like the GFS being to quick to bring in the MJO to our part of the world when the Euro was much slowerin bringing the MJO to the Caribbean and E-Pac.

Yeah. I hear ya. The EURO is much more patient. The MJO getting into the Atlantic Basin very soon might spell some early tropical trouble.
638. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I've been downhearted baby,
I've been downhearted baby,
Ever since the day we met
Ever since the day we met

I've been downhearted baby,
I've been down--I've been downhearted baby,
Ever since the day we met
Ever since the day we met


Feeling a little blue this Morning ?

Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Yeah. I hear ya. The EURO is much more patient. The MJO getting into the Atlantic Basin very soon might spell some early tropical trouble.


MJO is almost here.


Another little EPAC system ready to ramp up.


Quoting FunnelVortex:
Anything on 90E?


A mess!


Quoting VR46L:


Feeling a little blue this Morning ?


Oh, no! Not at all! Just a song in my head that brings back many memories. All good here! Feeling great.
643. VR46L
See 90E is still embedded,Its losing its chance of making it ..


644. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Oh, no! Not at all! Just a song in my head that brings back many memories. All good here! Feeling great.


Good to hear!!
I never gave 90E a snowball's chance.
Nor do I have a whole lot of interest in the EPac.
The Columbia Glacier descends from an ice field 3,050 meters (10,000 feet) above sea level, down the flanks of the Chugach Mountains, and into a narrow inlet that leads into Prince William Sound in southeastern Alaska. It is one of the most rapidly changing glaciers in the world.

The Columbia is a large tidewater glacier, flowing directly into the sea. When British explorers first surveyed it in 1794, its nose%u2014or terminus extended south to the northern edge of Heather Island, a small island near the mouth of Columbia Bay. The glacier held that position until 1980, when it began a rapid retreat that continues today.

These false-color images, captured by Landsat satellites, show how the glacier and the surrounding landscape has changed since 1986. The images were collected by similar sensors the Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM on three different Landsat satellites (4, 5, and 7).

The Landsat sensors detect light reflecting off the Earth in the short wave-infrared, near-infrared, and green portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. With this combination of wavelengths, snow and ice appears bright cyan, vegetation is green, clouds are white or light orange, and the open ocean is dark blue. Exposed bedrock is brown, while rocky debris on the glaciers surface is gray.

By 2011, the terminus had retreated more than 20 kilometers (12 miles) to the north, moving past Terentiev Lake and Great Nunatak Peak. In some years, the terminus retreated more than a kilometer, though the pace has been uneven. The movement of the terminus stalled between 2000 and 2006, for example, because the Great Nunatak Peak and Kadin Peak (directly to the west) constricted the glacier%u2019s movement and held the ice in place.

As the glacier terminus has retreated, the Columbia has thinned substantially, as shown by the expansion of brown bedrock areas in the Landsat images. Since the 1980s, the glacier has lost about half of its total thickness and volume. Rings of freshly exposed rock, known as trimlines, become especially prominent around the inlet throughout the 2000s.

Just south of the terminus, a layer of floating ice is dimpled with chunks of icebergs that have broken off, or calved, from the glacier and rafted together. The area and thickness of this layer, varies depending on recent calving rates and ocean conditions. In most of the images in the series (particularly 1989 and 1995) the lange extends south to Heather Island, marking the point at which the glacier reached its greatest extent.

Like bulldozers, glaciers lift, carry, and deposit sediment, rock, and other debris from Earths surface. This mass accumulates on leading edges in piles called moraines. The Columbia's moraine created a shallow underwater ridge, or shoal, that prevents the lange from drifting beyond it.

The structure of Columbia's moraine played a large role in the stability of the glacier before 1980. Like other tidewater glaciers, the Columbia built up a moraine over time, and the mixture of ice and rock functioned like a dam keeping out the sea. It was supported on one end by the shoreline and by the underwater terminal moraine at the other. When the glacier retreated off the moraine around 1980, the terminus lost a key source of support. Once freed from this anchoring point, the grinding and dragging between the sea floor and the massive block of ice was reduced, increasing the rate at which ice flowed forward and icebergs calved from the glacier.

Between 2007 and 2010, part of the terminus began to float as it passed through deep water between the Great Nunatak Peak and Kadin Peak. This changed the way icebergs calved significantly. When the Columbia was grounded, calving occurred at a fairly steady rate, and the bergs that broke off were small. When the glacier began to float, larger chunks of ice tended to break off, as seen in the image from 2009. The terminus has reached shallower waters and is grounded again, but rapid calving is expected to continue until the terminus reaches the shoreline, a point about 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the current terminus that the Columbia will likely reach by 2030

Link

Good Morning All..
Got down to 51 degrees this am ..
Broke record low set in 2001..
Currently 57 degrees 93%rh and dew at 55..
Winds calm and partly cloudy skies..

Beautiful sunrise coming..



Looks inviting this am..

Quoting no1der:
And here in western New England, I came very close to losing all my peaches, pears and cherries last night, with trees in bloom and a freeze warning.

Meanwhile it's 46 and raining in W. Greenland:

Link



It was a chilly 29 here in the southern Apps this morning. I'm not sure how the local orchards fared, but luckily the trees were a lot further behind this year than last. Orchards are big business here, hopefully they didn't lose the whole crop.
Speaking of songs on your mind..
Tuesdays allways makes me think of this one.. :)

Tuesday Afternoon..Moody Blues..Enjoy
Quoting goosegirl1:


It was a chilly 29 here in the southern Apps this morning. I'm not sure how the local orchards fared, but luckily the trees were a lot further behind this year than last. Orchards are big business here, hopefully they didn't lose the whole crop.

Going to say no on that. I think you are okay.
Quoting VR46L:
See 90E is still embedded,Its losing its chance of making it ..



That's not at all true. Disturbances -- especially weaker ones (though I wouldn't necessarily consider 90E a weak one) -- take quite a while, usually a day or two, to detach from the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Give it time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not at all true. Disturbances -- especially weaker ones (though I wouldn't necessarily consider 90E a weak one) -- take quite a while, usually a day or two, to detach from the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Give it time.

I see you think it will make it. And that's okay.
Triple X-Class Solar Flares - May 14, 2013 Link
Quoting Luisport:


you need to link videos, not put them as an image, just letting you know :]
Never mind, you fixed it :P
It's too cold this morning. Almost broke a century old record.
Quoting Torito:


you need to link videos, not put them as an image, just letting you know :]
Thank's!
659. VR46L
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not at all true. Disturbances -- especially weaker ones (though I wouldn't necessarily consider 90E a weak one) -- take quite a while, usually a day or two, to detach from the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Give it time.


Maybe but I doubt it ... it looked better yesterday !
Quoting FunnelVortex:


LAWL
Quoting VR46L:


Maybe but I doubt it ... it looked better yesterday !


90E going POOF? Could this be the first POOF of the season?
Good morning.2013 is sure making up for the cold 2012 lacked..
This TCFP has been so consistant with the potential formation of a TD for so long now above south america...


90E Intensity graph

NHC


...DISCUSSION...

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 0400
UTC REVEALED SMALL AREA OF 35 KT GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR 15.5N95W.
FOR THIS REASON A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT...FOR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MAX UNTIL ABOUT
1500 UTC. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE BY
18Z. EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING.

LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE EARLY SEASON MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
07N96W HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE HELP
OF SHEAR VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH GAP WINDS FROM THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS...BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS WITHIN A BAROTROPICALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...
WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING BY WED. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST-PROPAGATING DISTURBANCE...
IN THIS CASE A CARIBBEAN WAVE THAT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN SOME
CASES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 105W AND 110W WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES NNW OF THE AREA WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
SE TO NEAR 20N114W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN THE
TRADES AND ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT THROUGH THU.

Shhhhhhhh, just let her rest as long as she can....
Carribbean

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N30W 2N47W EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-33W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

Quoting JNCali:
Shhhhhhhh, just let her rest as long as she can....




Quoting Luisport:
Triple X-Class Solar Flares - May 14, 2013 Link

Lots of big flares lately. Could the warming be attributed to these?
Jamala pretty much dissipated.



Not really anything there anymore other than winds and clouds.
TXPZ21 KNES 141227
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 14/1145Z

C. 6.0N

D. 99.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...NO CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS DETECTED IN 1026Z AMSU
DATA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER FIX WHICH WAS BASED IN PART ON ROTATION
IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM 0634Z OSCAT. THIS
SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO BANDING OF LESS THAN 2/10.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

Quoting Luisport:
Triple X-Class Solar Flares - May 14, 2013 Link


Yeah this is from the 3 day Solar X-ray Flux, Really Weird Plot



Also, Here is The Ark's help files for embedding YouTube videos into the blog, hope it helps you

Link
ISS crew members safely return to Earth this Morning..



Explanation: The Soyuz TMA-07M spacecraft is seen as it lands with Expedition 35 Commander Chris Hadfield of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), NASA Flight Engineer Tom Marshburn and Russian Flight Engineer Roman Romanenko of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) in a remote area near the town of Zhezkazgan, Kazakhstan, on Tuesday, May 14, 2013. Hadfield, Marshburn and Romanenko returned from five months onboard the International Space Station where they served as members of the Expedition 34 and 35 crews. Image Credit: NASA/Carla Cioffi
Quoting JNCali:
Shhhhhhhh, just let her rest as long as she can....



whats not whats wake here up


Cant even tell this was once jamala anymore.
Tropics really got active in the last 24 hours...

90E ROTATION :D




29KT wind speed, compared to 26 yesterday.
Solar activity last peaked in 2001, in Cycle #23. Solar Cycle 24 should be peaking now but so far it's been a fizzle.

http://http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict. shtml
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Lots of big flares lately. Could the warming be attributed to these?

If you think 90E is dead you haven't seen many invests.
Did you all see the 0Z CMC and GFS Ensemble have it too!:)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If you think 90E is dead you haven't seen many invests.



right i re rember one i think it was 94L it look this like 90E and then it turned in two a big cat 5 hurricane and made land fall in MX
Quoting Tazmanian:



right i re rember one i think it was 94L it look this like 90E and then it turned in two a big cat 5 hurricane and made land fall in MX


Correct, we've seen naked swirls eventually become major hurricanes in a few days time.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


90E going POOF? Could this be the first POOF of the season?
90e will be first named system of the 2013 east pacific season it will get named after 8 am tomorrow morning
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Did you all see the 0Z CMC and GFS Ensemble have it too!:)


I posted it earlier.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I posted it earlier.


Grothar posted it first.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90e will be first named system of the 2013 east pacific season it will get named after 8 am tomorrow morning

Quoting no1der:
Solar activity last peaked in 2001, in Cycle #23. Solar Cycle 24 should be peaking now but so far it's been a fizzle.

http://http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict. shtml


Boy. By the looks of that, I'd say yes.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar posted it first.


Don't let Taz see that!
Quoting Grothar:


Don't let Taz see that!




you seen nothing 1st
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar posted it first.



he seen nothing 1st
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90e will be first named system of the 2013 east pacific season it will get named after 8 am tomorrow morning


I hope for a 'poof-less' start to the season so it can add credibility for the season.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90e will be first named system of the 2013 east pacific season it will get named after 8 am tomorrow morning


No chance in that. 90E has a very long way to go right now.
My best guess is we'll see classification sometime late Thursday or early Friday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best guess is we'll see classification sometime late Thursday or early Friday.

It's got a longer way to go than you think. Have you looked at the latest infrared?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best guess is we'll see classification sometime late Thursday or early Friday.


Wishcasting?

I think the storm Taz and Teddy are referring to is Felix..it looked absolutely hideous and worthless when it was a swirl between Africa and the Leeward Islands only to have found a more favorable environment and turn into a monster..That Felix was surely something and a lesson learned.I hope we won't have to be tracking nothing like that this year in the caribbean.No Ivan's,Gustav's,Ike's,or Dean's this year please or Wilma's..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Wishcasting?




have you even been following ???? I guss not



some time invest dos this then they find a more favorable environment it could all so be its Dmin or or it could no longer be hock up with the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE so wish means 90E is now on its own and this needs to find a more favorable environment and its olny tuesday
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It's got a longer way to go than you think. Have you looked at the latest infrared?




have you even been following ???? I guss not



some time invest dos this then they find a more favorable environment it could all so be its Dmin or or it could no longer be hock up with the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE so wish means 90E is now on its own and this needs to find a more favorable environment and its olny tuesday
703. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No chance in that. 90E has a very long way to go right now.


I would tend to agree with ya ... seems glued to the Monsoon trough at the moment

Rammb Imagery

LMAO. Scott---YOU'RE WRONG BUDDY. 90E DOES HAVE A CHANCE. IT WAS BECOME A MONSTER CATEGORY 5 STORM!!! BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:P
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Nnnnnnnoooooooooooo...................
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think the storm Taz and Teddy are referring to is Felix..it looked absolutely hideous and worthless when it was a swirl between Africa and the Leeward Islands only to have found a more favorable environment and turn into a monster..That Felix was surely something and a lesson learned.I hope we won't have to be tracking nothing like that this year in the caribbean.No Ivan's,Gustav's,Ike's,or Dean's this year please or Wilma's..

Also Michael from last year went from a 1015mb swirl to a major hurricane in just 4 days.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I had one in my yard in Grand Rapids as a kid in the 80s. We ain't scared of hairless nuts anyhow!
Quoting SouthTampa:
I had one in my yard in Grand Rapids as a kid in the 80s. We ain't scared of hairless nuts anyhow!

COMMENT OF THE DAY!!!! Turning the caps off now. Sorry.
90E looks like a typical Monsoon low, It may take a lot of time to get it's act together since it's very large. Lets hope if/when it does get it's act together and consolidate, it keeps heading west and stays fish.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
LMAO. Scott---YOU'RE WRONG BUDDY. 90E DOES HAVE A CHANCE. IT WAS BECOME A MONSTER CATEGORY 5 STORM!!! BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:P


Alkright Taz. Misspelling is intentional by the waoy;) LOL
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
LMAO. Scott---YOU'RE WRONG BUDDY. 90E DOES HAVE A CHANCE. IT WAS BECOME A MONSTER CATEGORY 5 STORM!!! BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:P




reported for yelling
Quoting AussieStorm:
90E looks like a typical Monsoon low, It may take a lot of time to get it's act together since it's very large. Lets hope if/when it does get it's act together and consolidate, it keeps heading west and stays fish.


Just as is the case with early season Caribbean disturbances. Remember TS Debby?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Alkright Taz. Misspelling is intentional by the waoy;) LOL




you been reported for the commet you made
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It's got a longer way to go than you think. Have you looked at the latest infrared?

I'm white aware of how far it has to go. But it's in a favourable environment and most models show development by the time I mentioned.
Downhearted

Long Live the King