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Survey says: 97% of climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on May 07, 2013

Two studies done in 2009 and 2010 found that 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that humans cause global warming. But what would a larger sample of the scientific literature show, extended all the way up to 2011? You're invited to help find out, by participating in an anonymous 10-minute survey where you will be reading the abstracts (summaries) of ten randomly selected technical papers on Earth's climate published between 1991 and 2011. The survey was created by physicist John Cook of The Global Change Institute at Australia's University of Queensland. Mr. Cook is the creator of one of my favorite climate change websites, skepticalscience.com. He authored one of our special Earth Day 2013 essays, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change, from which I have pulled Figure 1 below. Mr. Cook is lead author on a new paper called "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," to be published in the next month or so in Environmental Research Letters. The paper analyzes the same papers included in the survey you're asked to participate in, and the researchers plan to compare the results. Each of these 11,944 papers written by 29,083 authors and published in 1,980 journals included the keywords "global warming" or "global climate change" in their listing in the ISI Web of Science database. After reading each abstract, you will be asked to rate the level of endorsement within the abstract for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming. There will be these choices available on a drop-down menu for you to choose from:

1. Explicit Endorsement with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing more than half of global warming.
2. Explicit Endorsement without Quantification: abstract explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
3. Implicit Endorsement: abstract implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
4. Neutral: abstract doesn't address or mention issue of what's causing global warming.
5. Implicit Rejection: abstract implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.
6. Explicit Rejection without Quantification: abstract explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming.
7. Explicit Rejection with Quantification: abstract explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming.
8. Don't know.

When you are all done, the survey will let you know how your average score for the ten papers compares to the rating given by the authors. The survey took me about 8 minutes to complete, and it was interesting to see the tremendous diversity of research being done on global warming in my random sample. I'll post about Mr. Cook's results when his paper is published in the next few months.


Figure 1. Two recent studies have sought to measure the level of agreement in the scientific community in different ways and arrived at strikingly consistent results. A 2009 study led by Peter Doran surveyed over 3,000 Earth scientists and found that as the scientists' expertise in climate change grew, so did the level of agreement about human-caused global warming. For the most qualified experts, climate scientists actively publishing peer-reviewed research, there was 97% agreement. Alternatively, a 2010 analysis led by William Anderegg compiled a database of scientists from public declarations on climate change, both supporting and rejecting the consensus. Among scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, there was 97% agreement. However, it is worth pointing out that science is not decided by majority vote. This is articulated concisely by John Reisman who says: "Science is not a democracy. It is a dictatorship. It is evidence that does the dictating." Figure and text taken from Mr. John Cook's special Earth Day essay, Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change.

Thanks for participating!

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

We truly have come a long way. I guess Im a throwback to the era when they were all willy nilly out there and nobody knew where they were going
Quoting beell:
Actually, according to the Doran survey, that should be 75 of 77...
Well, the graphic's designers obviously assumed that those interested enough to view it in the first place would be likely to understand percentages. You know: (75/77) = 0.974, and 0.974 x 100 = 97.4, and 97.4 rounded down to the next whole number and converted to a percentage is 97%.

Guess they assumed too much, huh?
503. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, the graphic's designers obviously assumed that those interested enough to view it in the first place would be likely to understand percentages. You know: (75/77) = 0.974, and 0.974 x 100 = 97.4, and 97.4 rounded down to the next whole number and converted to a percentage is 97%.

Guess they assumed too much, huh?


Oh, oil it up a bit, Neap. You're squeakin'.
Have a good 'un.
Quoting K8eCane:
We truly have come a long way. I guess Im a throwback to the era when they were all willy nilly out there and nobody knew where they were going



Our ablility to track hurricanes was shown during hurricane sandy, it was predicted within 20 miles of where the landfall occured.
505. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Morning VR46L..
Dennis was a pain for sure..
But we made through quite well actually..
I personally don't want another Cape Verde strom like Ivan..

Beautiful pic of Ivan's Eyewall from ISS..






And if anyone tells you a hurricaine can't make a right turn just before landfall, you can show them this MIMIC Image..
Approx. 100 mile ..



Good Morning to you ... Yes Ivan was a terrible storm .. and I hope you are spared something like that again !
Quoting KoritheMan:

Eventually it will be.

Regardless, I suspect 2013 will be 2013. :)
Exactly KoritheMan.One can never say never.I wished I understood weather better and could understand the language you all speak.But that's why I am glad I have all you guys and gals to keep me up to date on the tropics.You are the greatest.



Forcast




Actual track
Quoting beell:


Oh, oil it up a bit, Neap. You're squeakin'.
Have a good 'un.


But Nea hates oil XD
Quoting Torito:



Forcast




Actual track



that was an amazing forecast
Quoting K8eCane:



that was an amazing forecast



Indeed, it was :D
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link


That is really far out, wait for some consistancy so we know if it is true or not.
I see the same bickering with the same cast of characters. Sigh.

I guess weather got too boring to blog about...
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I see the same bickering with the same cast of characters. Sigh.

I guess weather got too boring to blog about...



LOL i already posted all the satellite images...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link


It says thunderstorms. Nothing about a TD
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Exactly KoritheMan.One can never say never.I wished I understood weather better and could understand the language you all speak.But that's why I am glad I have all you guys and gals to keep me up to date on the tropics.You are the greatest.


We are ready to jump on the first storm we see xD
Look at the Wind direction
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It says thunderstorms. Nothing about a TD
waiting for the invests in the indian ocean to update satellite images at 11:00 EST...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Look at the Wind direction


It could just be a tropical low. Because the GFS as the possible TS hitting shear, cooler waters, and Cuba.

Maybe Accuweather is forcasting it's remnants?
520. VR46L
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
I see the same bickering with the same cast of characters. Sigh.

I guess weather got too boring to blog about...


There ya go !;)

92B Funktop



94S funktop




Quoting beell:


Oh, oil it up a bit, Neap. You're squeakin'.
Have a good 'un.
Yep: the graphic's designers definitely assumed too much. But I hope nobody here is offended if they don't dumb it down for them...
Considering that 100% of climatologists get their funding from the government to further their studies, I'm not surprised. What I find funny is that everytime an extreme weather event happens it has to be due to people induced global warming. No, in some cases these things just happen.

But the true genius of the climatologists is that they used to be all about global warming. But now they say that in some cases global warming results in global cooling. That way that get their funding no matter what happens. Pure genius. But of course us 53%ers pay their salaries which annoys me. Get a real job.
Quoting VR46L:


There ya go !;)

92B Funktop



94S funktop






Get the black and white images out too. its time to party. XD

Quoting rjsenterp:
Considering that 100% of climatologists get their funding from the government to further their studies, I'm not surprised. What I find funny is that everytime an extreme weather event happens it has to be due to people induced global warming. No, in some cases these things just happen.

But the true genius of the climatologists is that they used to be all about global warming. But now they say that in some cases global warming results in global cooling. That way that get their funding no matter what happens. Pure genius. But of course us 53%ers pay their salaries which annoys me. Get a real job.


Can you source that statement please..
TIA
tropics trying to act innocent here...

526. VR46L
Quoting Torito:


Get the black and white images out too. its time to party. XD



LMAO that made me laugh out loud
Quoting VR46L:
me gigle

LMAO that made laugh out loud


LAWL
UGLY NHC TYPE SATTELITE xD

Quoting Torito:
tropics trying to act innocent here...




Don't believe this. Tropics always ready to sneak up on you
Quoting rjsenterp:
Considering that 100% of climatologists get their funding from the government to further their studies, I'm not surprised. What I find funny is that everytime an extreme weather event happens it has to be due to people induced global warming. No, in some cases these things just happen.

But the true genius of the climatologists is that they used to be all about global warming. But now they say that in some cases global warming results in global cooling. That way that get their funding no matter what happens. Pure genius. But of course us 53%ers pay their salaries which annoys me. Get a real job.


Two posts in, and you've already used up your annual drivel allowance.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yep: the graphic's designers definitely assumed too much. em>


They certainly did.
Quoting K8eCane:



Don't believe this. Tropics always ready to sneak up on you



Tomorrow there will be alot of storms on south america...
Hawaii xD

Link
Ill be back later with latest sattelite images :P
The reason for the high percentage is that those who use common sense and don't believe in man-made global warming don't get published. The key word is published!
I am personally not aware of any climatologists working in the private sector. To my knowledge most are funded by government entities through research grants, etc. They are also funded by state run organizations such as universities, etc. Once again using tax dollars.
Quoting rjsenterp:
I am personally not aware of any climatologists working in the private sector. To my knowledge most are funded by government entities through research grants, etc. They are also funded by state run organizations such as universities, etc. Once again using tax dollars.


I guess you can't back up the statement you made in post# 522..
That quantifies it as an "opinion" and not grounded in factual information..
I am weary of posts that just throw out information that is worded as factual and then find out it was nothing of the sort..
I have a Friend coming from Hawaii to S FL on Friday!!!:)
Quoting Torito:
Hawaii xD

Link
June 2013
1st-3rd. Sultry weather.
4th-7th. Big thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to Carolinas. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.

okay everyone..the big day is approaching quickly according to the farmers almanac..but not fast enough with some of the blog comments today..:)

Quoting yonzabam:


Two posts in, and you've already used up your annual drivel allowance.
lol
Quoting Torito:


random low sea pressure under australia, anyone know why?

I showed what it was a little while ago(comment 408).

Quoting K8eCane:


God bless those brave souls
Absolutely. It takes alot to scare me, flying into a cat-4 or 5 would achieve this.
Quoting aquak9:


Please don't say that. I see you are young, no offense intended, - but those years changed MANY LIVES FOREVER. Like, tens of thousands of people. You have no idea. PTSD? from weather? oh yeah.

So if this is REALLY how you feel, out of respect for Foxx and Crab and Selu, out of respect for RitaEvac and ST and so many folks here- please re-word such strong bold opinions.

I respect your words and lurk a bit, you are knowledgable in your studies of meteorology, and this is not a personal attack.
A few days ago, a blogger expressed concern for the anxiety level of the VORTEX2 team over a purported lack of 2013 tornadoes on the Plains. VORTEX2 did final experiments in 2010 and does not exist in 2013. Who'd pay any attention to that blogger's take on severe? I wouldn't.

Bold prediction/opinion not backed by detailed forecast reasoning means nothing - except to the one who opines, for, on the off-chance s/he becomes correct months down the road, s/he can brag and gain kudos. Otherwise, bold statements are forgotten by all save those for whom the statement created undue anxiety, maybe because of the memory of seasons past, maybe from a real fear of seasons present and seasons future.

I always figure a good bet is to look at the balanced forecast "opinions" given here. And by that I mean those that reflect respect for past experience and state science-based reasoning that makes sense. Best bet is looking at forecasts from official sources and those from experienced local mets.

Of course, many of this morning's comments, including this one, are part of the "balance" game that goes on in this blog.
This must be the dumbest quote I have seen in a while:

"If the sea level rises a foot or two it really doesn't make any difference here in Grenada because we have beaches that have a reasonably aggressive falloff," De Savary said. "If the water gets a few degrees warmer, well, that's what people come to the Caribbean for, warm water, so that's not an issue."

So you're telling me that warmer Caribbean waters are not an issue? Really!?

Article on sea level rise.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Accuweather have a TS or TD in SFL on June 1

Link


How many birds will fly over my house?

Click to enlarge


Quoting rjsenterp:
Considering that 100% of climatologists get their funding from the government to further their studies, I'm not surprised.

Perhaps you would instead be surprised to know that your statement is not correct. It kind seems like you do not fully understand how academia works.
Quoting rjsenterp:
What I find funny is that everytime an extreme weather event happens it has to be due to people induced global warming. No, in some cases these things just happen.
Climate change has implications for the severity and frequency of different types of weather events over the longer term average. As such, each event be consistent with, inconsistent with, or impacted by the increasing amount of heat in the climate system, but it is very very difficult to tie any event to climate or climate change. I know you've barely been on this blog for a year, but I know this distinction has been discussed numerous times since then.
Quoting rjsenterp:
But the true genius of the climatologists is that they used to be all about global warming. But now they say that in some cases global warming results in global cooling.
[snipped other irrelevant material]

That doesn't make any sense. Not at all. Oh, and it's completely fabricated nonsense. A global increase in heat energy cannot cause a global decrease in heat energy, you know, um, because they are polar opposites. Some areas have seen cold spells that have a possible link to changes in the jet stream, but those areas make up but a few percent of the globe and the globe as a whole continues to accumulate heat.

I know this might be hard for you to believe, but virtually none of your post makes any sense whatsoever. In fact, you did a 180, on yourself, within just a few short words within the same exact sentence! That's just gutsy right there.
Quoting pcola57:


Or an Ivan..
Or a Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Andrew, Eloise, Opal, Frederic, David...I could keep on..Good morning..:)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 8 2013
===================================

A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to mid-tropospheric levels. Ocean-atmosphere conditions suggest that the system would concentrate into a depression during the next 48 hours.
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET May 8 2013
==============================

The broad low pressure area monitored since 48 hours is a little better organized today. At 0900Z, it is centered near 5.8S 84.8E (740 NM to the east of Diego Garcia) with little motion. The low level circulation appears better defined compared to yesterday although still a bit elongated in an east-west direction. Associated convective activity has strengthened although still showing some diurnal fluctuations. All the deep convection is restricted within the western side of the circulation due to a rather strong easterly shear (30 knots or more according to 0900Z CIMSS data) north of the upper level ridge. SCATT data from this morning suggest a highly asymmetric circulation in terms of wind distribution. 25-30 knots winds in the western semi-circle but 10-20 knots in the eastern semi-circle. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1002 hPa.

Within the next few days, the system is expected to gradually move on a general southwards motion. Until Saturday, easterly to northeasterly shear should impede the cyclogenesis process.

However, some slow development appears likely. For the next 72 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression becomes gradually medium
Quoting KeysieLife:
This must be the dumbest quote I have seen in a while:

"If the sea level rises a foot or two it really doesn't make any difference here in Grenada because we have beaches that have a reasonably aggressive falloff," De Savary said. "If the water gets a few degrees warmer, well, that's what people come to the Caribbean for, warm water, so that's not an issue."

So you're telling me that warmer Caribbean waters are not an issue? Really!?

Article on sea level rise.
Talk about myopic!
ECMWF is showing a system similar to Beryl developing and turning SW.
G'morning, BF. I have a huge loaf of thick crusty crunchy homemade sourdough bread. Goes good w/black coffee, when toasted. (pushes some across table, nods head silently and with a smile)
Quoting KeysieLife:
This must be the dumbest quote I have seen in a while:

"If the sea level rises a foot or two it really doesn't make any difference here in Grenada because we have beaches that have a reasonably aggressive falloff," De Savary said. "If the water gets a few degrees warmer, well, that's what people come to the Caribbean for, warm water, so that's not an issue."

So you're telling me that warmer Caribbean waters are not an issue? Really!?

Article on sea level rise.

Well, what did they expect to have him say? He's a property developer, not a scientist:
"Peter De Savary, a British entrepreneur and major property developer on Grenada's famed Grande Anse Beach"

It's his job to market those beaches as if they will be exactly the same in 100yrs and flood risks won't change. Property is an investment.
testing..pulling out the old links for a test drive..



looks like some high waves at the area of potential TC formation by SA..
Quoting KeysieLife:
This must be the dumbest quote I have seen in a while:

"If the sea level rises a foot or two it really doesn't make any difference here in Grenada because we have beaches that have a reasonably aggressive falloff," De Savary said. "If the water gets a few degrees warmer, well, that's what people come to the Caribbean for, warm water, so that's not an issue."

So you're telling me that warmer Caribbean waters are not an issue? Really!?

Article on sea level rise.
"If the cancer spreads aggressively, it really doesn't make much of a difference since I'm a little overweight so I can stand to lose a few pounds anyway. It's all good."

Incredible... Of course, the guy who said it owns invested heavily in beachfront property there (and elsewhere), so it's not really a surprise that he'd deny any and all factual evidence he has to in order to make that investment seem more viable instead of the obviously really stupid idea it was.
Aaaaah, put one person on ignore and the blog is half as long. Now I can read what people have to say.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is showing a system similar to Beryl developing and turning SW.
Teddy do you mind posting the run of the model? Thanks.
Light rain (yep, rain... it's officially spring here in the mountains) has turned over to light hail here. Nothing like a little hail (EDIT: possibly graupel) to start off your day.

Can anyone tell me if the feature shown crawling north across the Colorado Front Range would be considered a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV)?



(Also, check out the perfect line of training storms coming up behind the possible MCV feature... we're going to have a wet day here in Colorado. Folks near wildfire burn scars need to stay alert).

Quoting pcola57:


I guess you can't back up the statement you made in post# 522..
That quantifies it as an "opinion" and not grounded in factual information..
I am weary of posts that just throw out information that is worded as factual and then find out it was nothing of the sort..

I wonder how much they are not aware of. Maybe this is just the tip of the ice berg.
Quoting MrMixon:

Looks like a little meso vortex riding north along the front range.
Morning everyone. I see the GFS is predicting its first ghost storm of the year. It can be noted that the GFS predicts these kind of storms every year at this time in the preseason. Wait for more consistency and we'll go from there in determining if we have an upcoming storm to track. I know you guys are ancy to get our first storm to track, but we only have 23 days to go.
It'll be here before you know it ;)

Ingredients are coming together very nicely in the Atlantic's favor for a Active and Dectructive season. Be prepared either way and well see how it turns out.

Will have a new blog of my June forecast in 2 weeks.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is showing a system similar to Beryl developing and turning SW.

I certainly wouldn't call the system on the 00Z ECMWF tropical or subtropical. That is one deep cold core system.

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Well, what did they expect to have him say? He's a property developer, not a scientist:
"Peter De Savary, a British entrepreneur and major property developer on Grenada's famed Grande Anse Beach"

It's his job to market those beaches as if they will be exactly the same in 100yrs and flood risks won't change. Property is an investment.


True, but he is a developer in the Caribbean. There is no way you can tell me he doesn't know that warmer waters could mean more dangerous storms.

I am no where near being a scientist, but this thing called common sense...well, we can't all win I guess.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
hurricane!!!!

Cold-core low!
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I certainly wouldn't call the system on the 00Z ECMWF tropical or subtropical. That is one deep cold core system.



sigh..1900, you wont let us hope just a little bit:)
I share the same belief as others, and have for months, in thinking that this season will be highly impactful and destructive. If the pattern remains, everybody is at risk this year. A strong Cape Verde season may limit the amount of disturbances that get farther west and develop, but if we do see a break, then we get storms capable of getting into the Gulf.
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning, BF. I have a huge loaf of thick crusty crunchy homemade sourdough bread. Goes good w/black coffee, when toasted. (pushes some across table, nods head silently and with a smile)
Yumm. Thanks. Reminds of the Alaska days... Hey, one of my neighbors gave me a couple babies, a "sweet Belle" and a tomate-a accompanied with his words, "Let's see if you kill them or if they grow." lol He's a food gardner. His wife is a great landscaper and we have exchanged plants. I need to plant the two veggies this eve. Wish me luck. I'm better at raising azalea in the forest. lol

(Oh yeah, weather.) Had a hard freeze last week, but the risk of frost is over now it seems. Slight severe chances next couple days. Had enough rain so far this year (knock wood) to reduce "exceptional drought" to "abnormally dry" right here but other parts of OK need lots of rain, so severe is welcome on dis Plain - with the hope it behaves itself.
Oh, and for those following the informed, cordial discussion about climatology and private industry...

It took me all of three minutes on indeed.com (a job search site) to find half a dozen private industry jobs requiring climatology expertise. Some are consulting companies, some are insurance companies, other aim to sell climate-related products to other private companies. Certainly, the majority of climatology jobs are at universities or government research offices, but the assertion that 100% of climate jobs are taxpayer-funded is quite easy to disprove, even on just one cup of coffee (ok, two).
Quoting ncstorm:


sigh..1900, you wont let us hope just a little bit:)

I know, I'm such a fun-wrecker. I'll tell you what though, ignoring that it's 372 hours out on the 06Z GFS, the little system down in the Yucatan Channel has some potential... :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I share the same belief as others, and have for months, in thinking that this season will be highly impactful and destructive. If the pattern remains, everybody is at risk this year. A strong Cape Verde season may limit the amount of disturbances that get farther west and develop, but if we do see a break, then we get storms capable of getting into the Gulf.


Well,it depends on the ridges if a strong Cape Verde season occurs and most of them go more west than to go fishing.Timing,timing,timing is the key.
New Yorkers were caught totally by surprised this morning when serious flash floods hit the city. The 2.5 inches of rain came down in just a couple of hours causing serious flooding in New York and Northern New Jersey. Here are photographs from Weather.com. Link
Quoting KeysieLife:


True, but he is a developer in the Caribbean. There is no way you can tell me he doesn't know that warmer waters could mean more dangerous storms.

I am no where near being a scientist, but this thing called common sense...well, we can't all win I guess.
That's the thing: Devary is probably smart enough to realize what climate change will mean to his island--just as most oil company CEOs know what their product is doing. But profit is an amazingly strong force, so you'll not catch Devary telling potential buyers, "Those millions I spent buying and developing all those acres or beachfront property? I wasted them buying what will be underwater in a matter of years!"
Here comes the 11:00 Updated sattellite!

92B


The demoted 94S! (24S now.)




If sattelite is too blurry, use this link.

Link
Looks like waves are pulling up from South America but there is no sign the sheer is going to slack over the Caribbean or gulf of Mexico to let anything happen.
Carribbian:



Gulf:



East Atlantic
The Atlantic and the caribbean sea are warming significantly, but the trade winds are supposed to increase in the next week or so......Lets see what are the effect of this....



Quoting Neapolitan:
That's the thing: Devary is probably smart enough to realize what climate change will mean to his island--just as most oil company CEOs know what their product is doing. But profit is an amazingly strong force, so you'll not catch Devary telling potential buyers, "Those millions I spent buying and developing all those acres or beachfront property? I wasted them buying what will be underwater in a matter of years!"
Yep..It is my theory that the eustatic rise will increase expotentially as time wears on. I wonder what effect it will have on the worlds economy spending hundreds of billions walling off all the vulnerable cities.
People won't pay to visit armored beaches or snorkel over bleached dead coral for very long. Yes, warmer water and CO2 acidified water kills coral and reefs. That won't change the flow of tourist traffic?
Our farmers hope you get all the rain you want barefoot, as long as you keep it west of the MS! Saw Dr. Forbes gave us a 3 Torcon for tomorrow, just hope the rainfall totals StL is predicting are on the high side. Did see 4-5 days of dry after this, if on low side maybe they can get some corn planted.

75 w/ 56 dew pt, 30" still light N winds. Might be able to finish baling the yard tonight after an initial 4" cut last night. Some was higher than the 6" I stated yesterday. If get through quick enough will see if any morels remain in my timber.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I certainly wouldn't call the system on the 00Z ECMWF tropical or subtropical. That is one deep cold core system.



I'm aware of that, the hook to the SW is what I was referring to as a "Beryl type system," it will be interesting to see if further storms that develop that are tropical take similar paths.
Quoting bappit:
Aaaaah, put one person on ignore and the blog is half as long. Now I can read what people have to say.


That was a great idea especially when using a mobile hotspot with limited data,(That's only my 2nd iggy).

The Keys have been great this week. Cool and very dry air for May.



Area for formation of a tropical system is getting larger....
Quoting Luisport:
New Yorkers were caught totally by surprised this morning when serious flash floods hit the city. The 2.5 inches of rain came down in just a couple of hours causing serious flooding in New York and Northern New Jersey. Here are photographs from Weather.com. Link


Wow, kind crazy... and it came from ~2.5" of rain?
Always interesting to see how different the amounts of rainfall are across the country that cause significant flooding. That amount of rain would be an almost yearly occurrence here on the gulf coast. We had similar impacts to that with the higher-end flash flood event on May 1st, but that was from 6-7" of rainfall in 3hrs...



Shear forcasted to trend lower...


warmer than average water...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well,it depends on the ridges if a strong Cape Verde season occurs and most of them go more west than to go fishing.Timing,timing,timing is the key.
Do you know if we have radar for PR today or are we completely blind?
Quoting Torito:



Area for formation of a tropical system is getting larger....


When has a little 2% spot ever developed?

Quoting Gearsts:
Do you know if we have radar for PR today or are we completely blind?


World in general.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


When has a little 2% spot ever developed?


It has went from 1% to 2% and doubled in size xD

And the answer to that would be: 2% of the time...
LOL!
Quoting Torito:


It has went from 1% to 2% and doubled in size xD
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
LOL!


xD
Quoting Torito:


It has went from 1% to 2% and doubled in size xD

And the answer to that would be: 2% of the time...


It's still only a 1/50 chance.
Quoting Gearsts:
Do you know if we have radar for PR today or are we completely blind?


At least we have the Toa Baja one.

Link
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's still only a 1/50 chance.


Thats pretty good odds for something this early in the year.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's still only a 1/50 chance.




^-^
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Wow, kind crazy... and it came from ~2.5" of rain?
Always interesting to see how different the amounts of rainfall are across the country that cause significant flooding. That amount of rain would be an almost yearly occurrence here on the gulf coast. We had similar impacts to that with the higher-end flash flood event on May 1st, but that was from 6-7" of rainfall in 3hrs...


Good point. Of course, antecedent soil conditions also play a big role in how flashy a flash flood is. But even accounting for soil moisture variations, some geographies are more capable than others of absorbing rainfall. Here in Colorado, 2.5" of rain in a couple hours would cause enough flash flooding and erosion to turn this...



into this...



:)
Quoting Torito:


Thats pretty good odds for something this early in the year.


I'm still watching it, just in case.

But I am really interested in the Carribean later this month.

The Carribean will probably be a hotspot this year.
Convection missing again the N Leewards. The west part is for PR/VI and the east part for the S Leewards and N Windwards. Between those two areas... there is some dry air... and no need to say this boring part will be for me.

Link

Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's still only a 1/50 chance.


Heres your .0001% storm -_-


Cyclone Catarina

More info
Quoting ncstorm:
testing..pulling out the old links for a test drive..




may be you sould test things on your own blog then that way if some in gos worng with the link your not going too mass up dr m blog at the same time
Quoting Tazmanian:



may be you sould test things on your own blog then that way if some in gos worng with the link your not going too mass up dr m blog at the same time



Calm down dude, it isnt that big of a deal.... He didn't know it was going to happen...
24S Weakening fast (convection anyways..)



Perhaps the Rarest hurricane location ever recorded...
BRAZIL.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm aware of that, the hook to the SW is what I was referring to as a "Beryl type system," it will be interesting to see if further storms that develop that are tropical take similar paths.

Ok, was not aware that is what you were trying to get across. I'll say this though: with the thickness near the center of the low being extremely low (starting out as modeled near an incredible 540 dam), it would have to spend a huge amount of time over the Gulf Stream to reverse the thickness.
These are probably my favorite weather phenomeon...



polar lows.
WOOOOOO

The one invest in the indian ocean has officially been classified as a cyclone :D



Now it needs to get stronger to get a name.
Quoting Torito:
These are probably my favorite weather phenomeon...



polar lows.


Why, exactly?
Quoting KeysieLife:
This must be the dumbest quote I have seen in a while:

"If the sea level rises a foot or two it really doesn't make any difference here in Grenada because we have beaches that have a reasonably aggressive falloff," De Savary said. "If the water gets a few degrees warmer, well, that's what people come to the Caribbean for, warm water, so that's not an issue."

So you're telling me that warmer Caribbean waters are not an issue? Really!?

Article on sea level rise.


OK, I have not read the whole article, so I am not speaking on what the developer said.

But this article makes my skin crawl, like I am being sold something using misinformation.

The article says the beach problem in Granada is because of sand extraction for construction (subsidence?) and storm surges eating away at the beach. That has been happening on the U.S. Gulf Coast after every Hurricane forever.

Oh, it does say that Climate Change 'made the storm surge worse'.

Then the whole article extrapolates based on, "If climate change impact predictions come true'. Now it seems many of you 'believe' that all that is predicted is going to come true, so you are completely fine with this extrapolation. And you may call me a 'denier'. But I am really just trying to skeptically cut through the hype, and emotional appeal.

I just do not like the weak correlation that is used to paint such dire future results. I see this over and over again in news articles. I know, post links to millions of studies, but I am not talking about research, just the hype.

OK, off my soapbox and back to work, and occasional lurking.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Why, exactly?


Idk, they just look cool to me and are usually harmless.
Quoting DFWdad:


OK, I have not read the whole article, so I am not speaking on what the developer said.

But this article makes my skin crawl, like I am being sold something using misinformation.

The article says the beach problem in Granada is because of sand extraction for construction (subsidence?) and storm surges eating away at the beach. That has been happening on the U.S. Gulf Coast after every Hurricane forever.

Oh, it does say that Climate Change 'made the storm surge worse'.

Then the whole article extrapolates based on, "If climate change impact predictions come true'. Now it seems many of you 'believe' that all that is predicted is going to come true, so you are completely fine with this extrapolation. And you may call me a 'denier'. But I am really just trying to skeptically cut through the hype, and emotional appeal.

I just do not like the weak correlation that is used to paint such dire future results. I see this over and over again in news articles. I know, post links to millions of studies, but I am not talking about research, just the hype.

OK, off my soapbox and back to work, and occasional lurking.


Haha i lurk alot too..
Quoting Torito:


Idk, they just look cool to me and are usually harmless.
Quoting Torito:


Idk, they just look cool to me and are usually harmless.


They can sink small ships though
Quoting Torito:



Calm down dude, it isnt that big of a deal.... He didn't know it was going to happen...

Don't worry, that's just Taz being the blog policeman. Hey taz, we have Moderators for that so relax dude.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


They can sink small ships though


lol........ Most ships dont go into polar lows... unless if the captain does it willingly.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


LOL Hail in MD..
Quoting Torito:
24S Weakening fast (convection anyways..)




Looking ok to me.







Quoting KoritheMan:

Eventually it will be.

Regardless, I suspect 2013 will be 2013. :)


YAWN lol :)
Quoting louisianaboy444:


YAWN lol :)


New blog from jeff masters....xD

One hundred percent of climate scientists have been taught that human Carbon dioxide is changing the climate.

As 100% of nutritionists were taught that Sodium was bad, so 97% of nutritionists will advise a low Sodium diet.

The truth remains that it has been well known for forty years that it is the Chlorine ion in table salt that is bad for you.