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Historic May snows hit Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:37 PM GMT on May 02, 2013

A rare and historic May snowstorm continues to pelt Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin with snowfall amounts unprecedented in the historical record for the month of May. Winter Storm Achilles has brought 15.5" of snow to Owatonna, Minnesota, about 50 miles south of Minneapolis. This is (unofficially) the largest May snowstorm in state history, surpassing the 3-day total of a 15" snowstorm at Sandy Lake Dam/Libby. The 14.7" of snow that has fallen at Baldwin, Wisconsin is just shy of Wisconsin's May state record snowfall of 15.4". Minneapolis just missed getting heavy snow, as bands of heavy snow with thunder and snowfall rates over one inch per hour set up over Northeast Iowa and Southeast Minnesota early this morning. There are multiple reports of tree damage across Red Wing, Owatonna, and other locations in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with power outages in the thousands across the Red Wing area. I-35 is closed in both directions just north of Owatonna due to snow cover and downed power lines.

Here are the latest peak snowfall totals by state as of early Thursday morning:
• Buckhorn Mtn., Colo.:  28.2"
• Near Buford, Wyo.:  20"
• Near Harrisburg, Neb.:  6.1"
• Ringsted, Iowa:  6.5"
• Owatonna, Minn.:  15.5"
• Beresford, S.D.:  6"
• Baldwin, Wisc.:  14.7"


Figure 1. Not yet! "Looks like I got the deck furniture out a little early," writes wunderphotographer MikePic in his caption for this photo taken on May 1, 2013 in Wheat Ridge, Colorado.


Figure 2. Observed snowfall amounts in inches from the May 1 - 2, 2013 snowstorm as of 9am EDT May 2. Image credit: NWS Minneapolis.

A historic May snowstorm for many locations
Rochester, Minnesota has received 7" of snow, smashing their all-time May snowstorm record of 2", set on May 4 - 5, 1944.

Over 3" of snow has fallen in Omaha, Nebraska, breaking their all-time May snowstorm record of 2" on May 9, 1945.

It was the first one-inch-plus May snowfall anywhere in the state of Iowa since 1967. A storm-high 6.5" fell in Iowa at Ringsted.

The 1.5" of snow that fell on Sioux Falls, South Dakota Wednesday was that city's first May snowfall since 1976, the first May snowfall of greater than one inch since 1944, and the 3rd highest May snowfall on record.

Topeka, Kansas, Kansas City, Missouri, and Des Moines, Iowa are all expected to get an inch or more of snow on Thursday through Friday. This would be only the second May snowstorm in recorded history for those cities. Their only other May snowstorm occurred on May 3, 1907 (3.2" at Topeka, 1.7" at Kansas City, and 1.2" at Des Moines.)

Jeff Masters
Mother Nature playing with snow...
Mother Nature playing with snow...
First pile lots of fresh, heavy wet snow all over everything.

Winter Weather Achilles

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hmm!!!!!!!!
The next big rain for S FL tonight maybe at 2:00AM
Live mobile streams of the freak May 2nd heavy snow in Kansas City:
Link
wind is picking up now in WPB!
Quoting stormchaser19:
Hmm!!!!!!!!

can't be that strong. we did have TC Zane when the MJO was meant to be in suppression mode down here.
Well, it happened just when I thought I wouldn't get knocked off today they turned the power off. So, I was down for about 50 minutes. Should be OK now. I hope.
Quoting VR46L:


Good to hear !! any track predictions for storms this coming season ™


sorry about the lateness my Ipad died
I believe most of the storm tracks this year could be caribbean GOM SE Coast in that order
Winds went from calm to 10-15kts here on the East coast of South Florida, is this because the Upper Low is getting closer?
STORM REPORT* Trained spotter reports 6" of water over Orton Avenue on Fort Lauderdale Beach, via NWS Chat.
Jeff Piotrowski ‏@Jeff_Piotrowski
Rain with sleet and snow mixed bag from Owasso OK now. #okwx
wind is picking up big time now in WPB!!!
Tonight in WPB!!!:)

Quoting VR46L:


Good to hear !! any track predictions for storms this coming season ™


sorry about the lateness my Ipad died
I believe most of the storm tracks this year could be caribbean GOM SE Coast in that order

This is a track composite that I made just to give you an idea on what I think this year in terms of track
514. JRRP

Another hurricane outlook from a met friend of mine reiterating my concerns for the southeast (florida) this season.



Part 1
Part 2
From a Friend
I'm not saying that every storm will follow these tracks these tracks are just to give an idea on how I believe SOME of the storm track may look at the end of the year
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
wind is picking up big time now in WPB!!!


Very windy on Fort Lauderdale beach. Almost as if a low is forming.
Quoting JRRP:



hmm long rage CV storm headin carib in June (normal) that would be expected
520. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


Very windy on Fort Lauderdale beach. Almost as if a low is forming.
Quoting Grothar:


Very windy on Fort Lauderdale beach. Almost as if a low is forming.


just might be but looks like the radar will be clean in hour or so it looks to be moving all off the coast but loookin to the gulf there might be more on the way latter tonight imo looks like a small spin there just west of tampa moving east >>>>>> ?
Quoting Grothar:


Very windy on Fort Lauderdale beach. Almost as if a low is forming.


It was Calm for the duraton of the day, but recently the wind has kicked up.

Quoting Grothar:


I know that Tom. I look to the East of Africa because when they move on the African continent they often develop from these. I have seen them as far east as the Sudan. I'm too old to have my thunder stolen. All I have left is a few bolts of lightning.
Ah k, East Africa yes. That be where the ol' waves develop.

Quoting Levi32:


Actually the mesoscale models are disseminated in full resolution. Only the global models are rescaled on NOMADS.

However, the NAM that you see is almost always on an interpolated coarse 32km North American grid, instead of the full-resolution 12km grid. There is also a 4km U.S. nest as you probably know (I'll add plots for that eventually).
Gotcha. So GFS, GEFS, NAVGEM and NAM are the only models run at higher resolution but distributed (for the most part) on a lower resolution. NCEP (which runs all those same models except NAVGEM) is also probably the only global modeling center which has yet to incorporate 4D-var. I <3 NCEP's logic!
Quoting hurricane23:
Another hurricane outlook from a met friend of mine reiterating my concerns for the southeast (florida) this season.



Part 1
Part 2


It has been eight years since the last major hit on the Peninsula. Climatology dictates a hit every 1-2 years.
524. SLU
Quoting JRRP:



WARNING: For entertainment purposes only.
Quoting Levi32:
It is true that the propagation of unorganized convection from the Arabian Sea westward over the eastern African highlands may sometimes be a precursor to tropical wave formation. Here's the abstract from a recent study on AEWs that mentions it:

The interaction between deep convection and easterly waves over tropical North Africa is studied using a weather state (WS) dataset from the International Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and reanalysis products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, as well as radiative fluxes from ISCCP and a precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. Composite analysis based on 21 yr of data shows that stronger latent and radiative heating of the atmosphere are associated with stronger, more organized, convective activity than with weaker, less organized, convective activity, implying that any transition from less to more organized and stronger convection increases atmospheric heating. Regression composites based on a meridional wind predictor reveal coherent westward propagation of WS and large-scale wind anomalies from the Arabian Sea into East Africa and through West Africa. The analysis shows that enhanced, but unorganized, convective activity, which develops over the Arabian Sea and western Indian Ocean, switches to organized convective activity prior to the appearance of the African easterly wave (AEW) signature. The results also suggest that low-level moisture flux convergence and the upper-tropospheric wind divergence facilitate this change. Thus, the upper-level easterly waves, propagating into East Africa from the Indian Ocean, enhance one form of convection, which interacts with the Ethiopian highlands to trigger another, more organized, form of convection that, in turn, initiates the low-level AEWs.

However, tropical waves still only form over the continent, and well-defined, organized wave structures almost never appear east of 10%uFFFDE.
Yes, I've always suspected that. The actual tropical wave which we monitor, however, is still formed over East Africa as you mentioned.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Ah k, East Africa yes. That be where the ol' waves develop.

Gotcha. So GFS, GEFS, NAVGEM and NAM are the only models run at higher resolution but distributed (for the most part) on a lower resolution. NCEP (which runs all those same models except NAVGEM) is also probably the only global modeling center which has yet to incorporate 4D-var. I <3 NCEP's logic!



So much for the Charney-Stern instability theory. I can't remember if it was Thorncroft who told me that.
Glorious rain in the Cape again today! And this evening, after everything had scooted off to the east courtesy of the strong westerly flow, I was quite amazed to see a very -- Very -- low, dark, wet scud come zipping in from the east! Line of ragged little wet clouds hurried over from the Everglades and headed across Cape Coral to the Gulf. I guess whatever's out there is starting to exercise some pull....
Barometer Bob Show is on now..... Tune in here
Sign in with you WU handle. Levi, if your here, Bob would love for you to call in.
Wow I had an hour and a half of constant light to moderate rain with periods of heavy rain here in St. Petersburg just north of the pier. Several bolts of lightning out over Tampa Bay earlier. Today's afternoon thunderstorms lasted longer than our typical summer storms!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'm not saying that every storm will follow these tracks these tracks are just to give an idea on how I believe SOME of the storm track may look at the end of the year
I understand!
I'm not a met but I've observed a few seasons here.
The cyclones will trend more west, sometimes a little SW, even WWSW, and somtimes NW, even WWNW, whatever's needed...the important thing is the trend......WEST!
You people can beat a subject to death sometimes.

Quoting Grothar:
You people can beat a subject to death sometimes.


There's no better place than a weather blog to do that LOL
Quoting Grothar:
You people can beat a subject to death sometimes.


It ain't dead yet, keep beating away. LOL
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Glorious rain in the Cape again today! And this evening, after everything had scooted off to the east courtesy of the strong westerly flow, I was quite amazed to see a very -- Very -- low, dark, wet scud come zipping in from the east! Line of ragged little wet clouds hurried over from the Everglades and headed across Cape Coral to the Gulf. I guess whatever's out there is starting to exercise some pull....


Intresting... Has the wind picked up aswell?

Quoting CosmicEvents:
I understand!
I'm not a met but I've observed a few seasons here.
The cyclones will trend more west, sometimes a little SW, even WWSW, and somtimes NW, even WWNW, whatever's needed...the important thing is the trend......WEST!

GOD MAN SPIT IT OUT WHATEVER YOU TRYIN TO SAY

536. txjac
Let me tell you ...that wind brings in the cold weather ...we dropped 20 degrees here in Houston. I have a lovely 55 degrees right now!
Quoting hurricane23:
Another hurricane outlook from a met friend of mine reiterating my concerns for the southeast (florida) this season.



Part 1
Part 2


I thought the QBO was thrown out as a factor to forecast hurricane seasons but I see that Allan Huffman uses it.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Intresting... Has the wind picked up aswell?



No, FIU, it's dead calm. I kind of wondered if the mass of weather to the east had generated some sort of outflow boundary.
539. beell
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

GOD MAN SPIT IT OUT WHATEVER YOU TRYIN TO SAY



i think he meant to say that even those storms that recurve will have a large component of westerly motion.
Quoting OrchidGrower:


No, FIU, it's dead calm. I kind of wondered if the mass of weather to the east had generated some sort of outflow boundary.


True, the thunderstorms offshore may have created an outflow boundary... Because I really don't see anything in the Gulf at the moment other than that Upper Level Low.
For Jasper, MO
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 3:33 PM CDT on May 02, 2013

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 1 am to 1 PM
CDT Friday...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow remains in effect from 1 am to
1 PM CDT Friday.

* Timing and areas affected... areas along and west of an Osceola
to Cassville line from late tonight through Friday morning.

* Snow accumulations... slushy snow accumulations from 1 to 3
inches are expected. Most of the accumulation will occur on
grassy surfaces.

* Winds and visibility... brisk northerly winds and moderate to
occasionally heavy snow will reduce visibilities down to a
mile or less at times.

* Temperatures... multiple hours of near or slightly below freezing
temperatures are expected from late tonight into early Friday
morning.

* Impacts... while most of the accumulation will occur on grassy
surfaces... slick spots will be possible on area roadways...
especially on bridges and overpasses.

The combination of the wet and heavy nature of the snow... brisk
winds... and foliage on trees may lead to some snapping of tree
branches. Isolated power outages will be possible if tree
branches fall on powerlines.

With temperatures expected to be near or slightly below
freezing for multiple hours late tonight and early Friday
morning... damage to sensitive vegetation will be possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow
covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
Winds are dead calm near Tampa Bay as well. I wonder if that low over the Gulf will fire off more storms for tonight.
Andrea Butera ‏@AndreaButera
Per NWS Chat, a survey team in Boca Raton, FL determined that a #tornado caused the damage this afternoon. Crews still determining strength.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Andrea Butera ‏@AndreaButera
Per NWS Chat, a survey team in Boca Raton, FL determined that a #tornado caused the damage this afternoon. Crews still determining strength.

I had a cousin how went to FAU in Boca Raton, sadly, she just left there yesterday. I was going to ask her if she saw anything.
545. beell
Some dry air working in.

Quoting beell:


i think he meant to say that even those storms that recurve will have a large component of westerly motion.

Well ok thats what I thought and that is simply what was need to be said not no long story of WSW or WWSW ...
may you all have a great evening....



Im currently working on a map about the potential impacts of the first named storm in the Atlantic Ocean...just like I did for the hurricane risk areas...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


sorry about the lateness my Ipad died
I believe most of the storm tracks this year could be caribbean GOM SE Coast in that order

This is a track composite that I made just to give you an idea on what I think this year in terms of track


Roughly a dozen landfalling tropical systems is over the top...
by the way I see some heavy T-storms headin our way here in Cayman

also our new radar is doing great giving us better look into our weather storm systems
Here is the page of NAO numbers since 1979...Is useful to see the phases during the previews season

Link
@NWSMiami - survey indicated an EF0 #tornado w/70mph winds touched down in Boca Raton this afternoon. It caused some damage. #FLwx
could something develop in June.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
may you all have a great evening....



Im currently working on a map about the potential impacts of the first named storm in the Atlantic Ocean...just like I did for the hurricane risk areas...

Max... make sure it can't get stolen and used by another. hint hint.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
may you all have a great evening....



Im currently working on a map about the potential impacts of the first named storm in the Atlantic Ocean...just like I did for the hurricane risk areas...

great can't wait to see them

Quoting SPLbeater:


Roughly a dozen landfalling tropical systems is over the top...


these are just track they are not there to depict storm numbers I have already posted my number early last month
19/13/5
NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami
Official NWS survey: EF0 tornado in northeast Boca Raton earlier today w/winds ~ 70 mph. Path length 0.4 miles. Mostly minor damage. #flwx
Quoting AussieStorm:

Max... make sure it can't get stolen and used by another. hint hint.


idk how to put a lock on it or something...

I'll make my logo bigger this time...just in case
Quoting Andrebrooks:
could something develop in June.

well yeah of course
look its more likley for storms to form in June than in May plus June 1st is start of season
Max, you have WU-mail
Quoting SPLbeater:


Roughly a dozen landfalling tropical systems is over the top...
I sure hope so..I tried to imagine what would happen if there were 12 landfalls and found out I couldnt.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


idk how to put a lock on it or something...

I'll make my logo bigger this time...just in case

Put the logo in the middle.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


idk how to put a lock on it or something...

I'll make my logo bigger this time...just in case


Hey Max..
Just a quick note..
And suggestion..
Why don't you Embed the image to link it right back to it and also encript the images info?
Thought I would throw that out there..
See what you think about it when you get rested up..
Peace my friend.. :)
Quoting hydrus:



we are not expecting any development are we?
Anyone who is in South Florida can look out and see that the clouds are beginning to move rapidly from East to West. A low trying to form?????


Quoting hydrus:
I sure hope so..I tried to imagine what would happen if there were 12 landfalls and found out I couldnt.


This country is already in a huge financial hole, we dont need any natural disasters added to the pile.
Quoting JRRP:



What part of weatheronline.co.uk did you get that from.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
could something develop in June.


Hello! Yes, something could and probably will at least attempt to develop in June. Best guess is a Western Caribbean system.
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P

This plot is real, from today's 06z CFS ensemble member #1 (out of 4)

Quoting Grothar:
Anyone who is in South Florida can look out and see that the clouds are beginning to move rapidly from East to West. A low trying to form?????




GMZ001-030900-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
446 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE EARLY FRI MORNING OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUE. WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 25N86W WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE FRI INTO SAT.

$$
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone who is in South Florida can look out and see that the clouds are beginning to move rapidly from East to West. A low trying to form?????





Moving that way here as well Gro..


Quoting Levi32:
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P

This plot is real, from today's 06z CFS ensemble member #1 (out of 4)



Yea, and look at the weakness over the western Atlantic as that trough starts digging over the east coast - FISH !!!
Quoting Levi32:
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P

This plot is real, from today's 06z CFS ensemble member #1 (out of 4)



where do you get these models waay into fantasyland?
I'm at 72F right now and there is a station reporting 40F about 50 miles away. Pretty neat.

GRO - Is the recent SoFlorida weather a harbinger of things to come?
Potential cyclogenesis for Andrea...

I think the western Caribbean and east of Florida right on the Gulf Stream...
Especially the Gulf Stream which has been a good seeding ground for early storms





copyrighted picture... just let me know, I won't say no to you to have it.
If you "seize it" you know what I'll think
577. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P


jejeje
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


where do you get these models waay into fantasyland?


I download the data from NOAA and plot it myself.

It's possible I will soon make CFS plots out to 720 hours available to the public, somewhat for entertainment purposes, but CFS products out to Week 4 have shown skill when averaged over several model runs. Trends can be diagnosed from them if interpreted properly.
579. JRRP
Quoting Andrebrooks:


What part of weatheronline.co.uk did you get that from.

Link
580. JRRP
569
i only use this
Quoting Levi32:
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P

This plot is real, from today's 06z CFS ensemble member #1 (out of 4)

This gives me something to look forward to for my last day of summer vacation :P
Quoting Levi32:
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P

This plot is real, from today's 06z CFS ensemble member #1 (out of 4)



2952/24= 123 days

Quoting Levi32:
514.

Sorry, JRRP, but I have the best make-believe CFS plots in the world :P

This plot is real, from today's 06z CFS ensemble member #1 (out of 4)



Only 1 tropical cyclone active during the peak month? Season bust for sure.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Only 1 tropical cyclone active during the peak month? Season bust for sure.

It only takes one storm to make a memorable season.
Evening all. We did get some rain here, a mere smattering, but the overcast skies kept temps down, so that was a plus. I haven't had a chance to read back yet to see how FL fared, but I've been finding the snowfall totals from today's system positively jaw-dropping...
Aussie I read you wu-mail and replied...

on another note: Hurricane chart...

had anyone made change on their forecast for this hurricane season on my hurricane chart...or any new add-ons???
I just have been very busy and I can't go back on the blog and old entries either...
Quoting JRRP:
569
i only use this


Imagine if the models had an extremely high accuracy rate up to 6 months, so that we already knew the outcome of hurricane season by May.
Quoting Dakster:
GRO - Is the recent SoFlorida weather a harbinger of things to come?


Very hard to tell. There have been many years when there was hardly any rain in May or June and there were bad hurricnes. There are too many variables to infer anything from this. My mother's family has been in Florida since 1923 and I have lived here on and off since 1948. It is not unusual to see heavy rain systems like we just had. As a matter of fact, it used to be quite common. Since my early prediction in December, I thought it was going to be an extremely active season, though.
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone who is in South Florida can look out and see that the clouds are beginning to move rapidly from East to West. A low trying to form?????




Na..upper level low still triggering showers/storms. development into anything substantial looks remote. give it another 2-3 weeks.
Quoting SPLbeater:


GMZ001-030900-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
446 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE EARLY FRI MORNING OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TUE. WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 25N86W WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE FRI INTO SAT.

$$


Sure, you have to read it. All I have to do is stick my head out the window and look. :)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


sorry about the lateness my Ipad died
I believe most of the storm tracks this year could be caribbean GOM SE Coast in that order

This is a track composite that I made just to give you an idea on what I think this year in terms of track






LOL. WKC, there wouldn't be anything left of the coastal Southeast or Greater Antilles if this happened. Dream season for you, eh?
Quoting wxgeek723:


Imagine if the models had an extremely high accuracy rate up to 6 months, so that we already knew the outcome of hurricane season by May.

Maybe someday that will happen.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

It only takes one storm to make a memorable season.


Lol. That was obviously sarcasm on my part.
Quoting MississippiWx:





LOL. WKC, there wouldn't be anything left of the coastal Southeast or Greater Antilles if this happened. Dream season for you, eh?


If that happens,2005 season will be nothing!!!!!Lol
The offshore mess is coming a little on shore now in nsb.
Link WU MAP
anyway, goodnight
Quoting wxgeek723:


Imagine if the models had an extremely high accuracy rate up to 6 months, so that we already knew the outcome of hurricane season by May.

Would it matter to some people, they would just say... I'll wait and see if it happens before a move an inch.

Max you have WU-mail.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Potential cyclogenesis for Andrea...

I think the western Caribbean and east of Florida right on the Gulf Stream...
Especially the Gulf Stream which has been a good seeding ground for early storms





copyrighted picture... just let me know, I won't say no to you to have it.
If you "seize it" you know what I'll think
Did people started to steal your graphics when I've been out busy with life?
Quoting Grothar:
You people can beat a subject to death sometimes.

But is it dead yet Gro??


Unless that thing over South Andros gets pulled almost due north, it looks like the rain chances for us are going to be done by the morning. I'm now wondering if Grothar is seeing clearing out that window he was referencing earlier...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Maybe someday that will happen.
100 years.
Did you see what JRRP just posted today.We could see a possible tropical storm in the Carribean and possibly in the gulf.
Alaskan ice thickness from Brad Pan's FB page

Link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Did people started to steal your graphics when I've been out busy with life?


let's just say some furtive and rather sneaky moves went around against copyright rules...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


sorry about the lateness my Ipad died
I believe most of the storm tracks this year could be caribbean GOM SE Coast in that order

This is a track composite that I made just to give you an idea on what I think this year in terms of track


Seems legit!
605. JRRP
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Did you see what JRRP just posted today.We could see a possible tropical storm in the Carribean and possibly in the gulf.

it's long range
May 2, 2013 Snowstom Over Northwestern Wisconsin is a May Record-setter

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

...RECORD MAY SNOWFALLS IN WISCONSIN...

A WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW IMPACTED THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-FOURTH
OF WISCONSIN LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY MAY 2ND.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1-FOOT WERE REPORTED BY 700 AM CDT
THIS MORNING...AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING THROUGH THE DAY.

THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

OBVIOUSLY...BY THE TIME THE STORM HAS ENDED...NEW 1-DAY...2-DAY...
AND 3-DAY RECORD WISCONSIN SNOWFALLS FOR MAY WILL BE ESTABLISHED.

WE TOOK A LOOK INTO THE RECORD BOOKS...AND HERE IS WHAT WE FOUND...

PREVIOUS 1-DAY MAY SNOW FALL RECORD...
10.0 INCHES AT ASHLAND EXPERIMENTAL FARM ON MAY 03 1954
10.0 INCHES AT MINOCQUA DAM ON MAY 11 1952
Quoting TomTaylor:


Seems legit




Quoting BahaHurican:


Unless that thing over South Andros gets pulled almost due north, it looks like the rain chances for us are going to be done by the morning. I'm now wondering if Grothar is seeing clearing out that window he was referencing earlier...


Big sliding glass doors. I just watch the world go by.
Quoting stormchaser19:




hahahah yess
Quoting Grothar:


Big sliding glass doors. I just watch the world go by.
Hopefully at least some of the world is wearing attractive swim suits...
611. beell

18Z GFS 700mb RH. Valid 2PM EST, Friday (left), 2PM EST, Saturday (right)
click to open in new window
In all seriousness, my 2013 hurricane season forecast.

-1 Hypercane
-2 Hurricane Huron's
-several cat 5's
-A Fay-like storm
-A Sandy-like storm
-A Erin-like storm
and
-A hurricane hitting Costa Rica

Quoting wxchaser97:
In all seriousness, my 2013 hurricane season forecast.

-1 Hypercane
-2 Hurricane Huron's
-


I like it, I see one going right over my head as a TS, haven't seen that since Katrina.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hopefully at least some of the world is wearing attractive swim suits...

Why do you think he was big glass sliding doors. wink* wink*
Quoting wxchaser97:
In all seriousness, my 2013 hurricane season forecast.

-1 Hypercane
-2 Hurricane Huron's
-several cat 5's
-A Fay-like storm
-A Sandy-like storm
-A Erin-like storm
and
-A hurricane hitting Costa Rica

I have two complaints: one, that the hypercane hits San Salvador, which would be especially wrong if it happened on Columbus Day weekend... and two, no hurricane hitting GA.
Quoting wxchaser97:
In all seriousness, my 2013 hurricane season forecast.

-1 Hypercane
-2 Hurricane Huron's
-several cat 5's
-A Fay-like storm
-A Sandy-like storm
-A Erin-like storm
and
-A hurricane hitting Costa Rica



Everything fine.. well...

Why my poor Costa Rica... people picking on me today
Link

Link to story on minor flooding today after 9.5 inches of rain in several hours today in my neck of the woods.
618. JRRP
Link
this is a good news for people who live in Haiti and Dom.Rep

pdf
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Everything fine..

Why my poor Costa Rica... people picking on me today

I wrote about a hurricane hitting Costa Rica in Spanish so that's why.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have two complaints: one, that the hypercane hits San Salvador, which would be especially wrong if it happened on Columbus Day weekend... and two, no hurricane hitting GA.

I could only do so much.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I like it, I see one going right over my head as a TS, haven't seen that since Katrina.

I haven't seen a remnant part of a storm since Ike.
Quoting JRRP:
Link
this is a good news for people who live in Haiti and Dom.Rep

pdf


Yeah, for me here in DR
Quoting wxchaser97:
In all seriousness, my 2013 hurricane season forecast.

-1 Hypercane
-2 Hurricane Huron's
-several cat 5's
-A Fay-like storm
-A Sandy-like storm
-A Erin-like storm
and
-A hurricane hitting Costa Rica



Lol. This is grossly specific. I hope CSU can get this specific someday. :-)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Everything fine.. well...

Why my poor Costa Rica... people picking on me today


Shame on those who are picking on you Max, why would someone be mean to a nice guy like you?

Costa Rica, eh? At least he didn't specify the strength, could be just a Cat 1.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Shame on those who are picking on you Max, why would someone be mean to a nice guy like you?

Costa Rica, eh? At least he didn't specify the strength, could be just a Cat 1.


A cat 1 could seriously devastate it... my country is vulnerable
The 00z TAFB Surface Analysis.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Shame on those who are picking on you Max, why would someone be mean to a nice guy like you?

Costa Rica, eh? At least he didn't specify the strength, could be just a Cat 1.
Not like picking on The Bahamas with a hypercane...

Quoting JRRP:
Link
this is a good news for people who live in Haiti and Dom.Rep

pdf
This is excellent news. I am going to be quite interested in whether the extra info contributes to decreased loss of life.

Quoting wxchaser97:

I wrote about a hurricane hitting Costa Rica in Spanish so that's why.
I could only do so much.
I haven't seen a remnant part of a storm since Ike.
Well, u could have had the hypercane hit GA before it bent back and hit the Azores... that would have been cool...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


A cat 1 could seriously devastate it... my country is vulnerable


Sorry, guess I'm tired.
Went on 6 mile bike trip today as a prep for the 50 miler I will do this summer.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


A cat 1 could seriously devastate it... my country is vulnerable
Costa Rica doesn't get hit very often, does it, Max?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Costa Rica doesn't get hit very often, does it, Max?

Costa Rica has, maybe, got 1 TD strike in recorded history according to wiki.

Lol I'm getting some impressive fork lightning right now. The thunderstorm cluster that was once over south Florida earlier today is moving in. Currently centered over Andros!
Forecast for South Mississippi on the night of May 3rd (tomorrow night). Are you kidding me? UGH.

Friday Night A 20 percent chance of rain before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. West northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Average high is 83, average low is 58. We are probably going to smash the record low considering the previous record is in the mid 40s.
Off-topic:

Every time I try to print a paper, printer tells me it is out of paper. This happens every single time for me, and I usually print something every two days or so. How much paper do my parents use??? I put plenty in the machine, and yet it is always me that is the one to get the notice.

//end-rant
Quoting MississippiWx:
Forecast for South Mississippi on the night of May 3rd (tomorrow night). Are you kidding me? UGH.

Friday Night A 20 percent chance of rain before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. West northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


Hmm, guess that's the pocket of cold air TWC was talking about today, that system has me at 52 for the night with 100% chance of heavy rain.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Costa Rica doesn't get hit very often, does it, Max?


Not direct hits really but many indirects... the damages are serious from those slow moving by storms. .. Hurricane Cesar was very bad in 1996... I experienced those dreadful days
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hmm, guess that's the pocket of cold air TWC was talking about today, that system has me at 52 for the night with 100% chance of heavy rain.


I would gladly take 52 over 38. :-)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


A cat 1 could seriously devastate it... my country is vulnerable
But you need to remember Max that CR is the richest country of Central America they are better prepare than here.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


We have 2" downstairs so far. All good, only storage though I'm sure many aren't as well off at the moment. Good luck getting home!!! This is highest rainfall flood we've had in many years.




The Keys seems to not get as much consistent heavier rains like the Peninsula due the lack of land area to form diurnal thunderstorms in the summer. However it seems the rainfall down there tends to come in massive drenching events every once in a while, which I guess is pretty common for tropical island locations.
Even the beach here looks cold.

Quoting allancalderini:
But you need to remember Max that CR is the richest country of Central America they are better prepare than here.


You are safe in the big cities but many live in rural montainous terrains... mudslides, flooding and river overflowing are major concerns.

Rich??? We are good for education... 97%
Quoting MississippiWx:


I would gladly take 52 over 38. :-)


I was actually kinda hoping those for low temperatures closer to the latter value with this front; would have been one hell of a sight to see in early May of all times. Oh well.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was actually kinda hoping those for low temperatures closer to the latter value with this front; would have been one hell of a sight to see in early May of all times. Oh well.


You can have the 38 degrees we're going to get if you want it. Brrrr. That's cold for us in the heart of winter. :-)
Quoting wxchaser97:

Costa Rica has, maybe, got 1 TD strike in recorded history according to wiki.



Hey look, I can pick out Martha. Probably because her track was so odd that it stands out, lol.

Quoting MississippiWx:


You can have the 38 degrees we're going to get if you want it. Brrrr. That's cold for us in the heart of winter. :-)

On second thought, can I have my Michigan weather back please? :)

Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey look, I can pick out Martha. Probably because her track was so odd that it stands out, lol.


Of course, she made landfall in Panama, but yeah you can pick that track out easily.
Aha! a genuine downpour at last... lol





Quoting MississippiWx:


You can have the 38 degrees we're going to get if you want it. Brrrr. That's cold for us in the heart of winter. :-)


My dad was saying earlier that Canton, where he's heading for a family reunion this weekend, was forecast to see some light snow. If you don't know, that's directly above Jackson. Last I checked it was out of the forecast since this morning, but if that would have happened, it would have been phenomenal.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z TAFB Surface Analysis.



1009 mb for an Upper Level Low?
648. JRRP
Quoting KoritheMan:


My dad was saying earlier that Canton, where he's heading for a family reunion this weekend, was forecast to see some light snow. If you don't know, that's directly above Jackson. Last I checked it was out of the forecast since this morning, but if that would have happened, it would have been phenomenal.


Yeah, I know where Canton is located. It's home of an enormous Nissan plant. That's about the extent of Canton. :-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Aha! a genuine downpour at last... lol



How are you doing fellow Bahamian?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


You are safe in the big cities but many live in rural montainous terrains... mudslides, flooding and river overflowing are major concerns.

Rich??? We are good for education... 97%
Yeah I mean compare to the rest,may I say most Catrachos don`t like Ticos.
Quoting allancalderini:
But you need to remember Max that CR is the richest country of Central America they are better prepare than here.
Rich is relative. However, I don't doubt that Honduras has more to cope with. What are brushes to CR are often direct hits for you guys.

I can also see how the relative infrequency of strikes could actually contribute to the devastation when a hurricane does hit.

Cesar would have given CR a pretty bad time, I think.

Look at the record rainfall for today for Nashville.
That was some epic flooding that week, was off of school for 5 days.

Quoting Thrawst:


How are you doing fellow Bahamian?
Hey, Thrawst... I have been admiring some of ur photos, but been too busy to chat in the blog of late.

And I am glad to see the rain come down heavy at last... means I can put off washing my car for a couple days... lol
I was just Skyping with a friend of mine in Western Australia who was commenting about the unusually warm autumn they've been having, and also about the record-breaking 2-day rain they had back in March.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Rich is relative. However, I don't doubt that Honduras has more to cope with. What are brushes to CR are often direct hits for you guys.

I can also see how the relative infrequency of strikes could actually contribute to the devastation when a hurricane does hit.

Cesar would have given CR a pretty bad time, I think.

Yeah I remember that Thomas didn`t hit CR but still caused devastation.
Some showers popping up around Tampa Bay! Maybe we will get a good soaking tonight as the elongated upper low approaches from the Gulf :) Good night everyone
Water appears to be cooling in much of the equatorial Pacific.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I was just Skyping with a friend of mine in Western Australia who was commenting about the unusually warm autumn they've been having, and also about the record-breaking 2-day rain they had back in March.


Parts of SW Western Australia had 65mm overnight, that's about 2.5inches.
This is the most crazy thing I've ever seen! The 0z CMC develops a weak tropical cyclone that CROSSES the equator and then continues strengthening on the other side! With a clockwise circulation!

Quoting Levi32:
This is the most crazy thing I've ever seen! The 0z CMC develops a weak tropical cyclone that CROSSES the equator and then continues strengthening on the other side! With a clockwise circulation!

that is the coolest thing ever. wow.

I know hurricanes/tropical storms can cross the equator -- there's nothing stopping them. Weird to see it continue to strengthen with the clockwise rotation in the Nhemi though. Really weird. You'd think the crossing of hemispheres would just kill that spin.
663. MahFL
Hi all, 3.30 inches of rain so far in Orange Park, FL. Still raining heavily.
I'm kind of making a fool of myself on Twitter over this, but I can't get over how bizarre this is. The CMC is obviously nuts, but the fact that it shows this is unreal. I've never seen anything like it. If anyone ever had doubts that the CMC's convective scheme has issues, you better know now that it has feedback problems.
Quoting Levi32:
This is the most crazy thing I've ever seen! The 0z CMC develops a weak tropical cyclone that CROSSES the equator and then continues strengthening on the other side! With a clockwise circulation!

But Levi this is the CMC.
Strong thunderstorm with torrential rain, strong winds, and lightning just blew through NE St. Pete. This is the third discrete cell to cross over my area in the last 8 hours.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


1009 mb for an Upper Level Low?


"Surface Analysis"

There is a surface low, not ULL.
Quoting TomTaylor:


Seems legit!

.
661 Levi32: This is the most crazy thing I've ever seen! The 0z CMC develops a weak tropical cyclone that CROSSES the equator and then continues strengthening on the other side! With a clockwise circulation!

"The idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to work?"

1)Looks like that's half of the equator straddling twins that you mentioned earlier.
2) Within Fujiwhara distance, so the NorthernHemisphere and SouthernHemisphere lows would have a tendency to pull toward each other.
3) Not a classic Fujiwhara interaction due to opposite spins. But still the NorthernHemisphere cyclone is stronger, so the SouthernHemisphere cyclone would move farther north.
4) Their opposite spins complement each other, reinforce the directions of their opposite spins. eg If two wheels are touching, spinning one will cause the other to spin in the opposite direction.
(If two wheels are spinning in the same direction, touching one to the other will cause immediate hard braking. In other words, do not touch the front wheel of your bicycle to the rear wheel of the bike in front of you.)
5) The stronger northern cyclone would spin up the weaker (formerly)southern "anti"cyclone.
(ie The southern cyclone would become an anticyclone when it crosses the equator.)
6) There is low CoriolisEffect close to the equator to counter the southern cyclone's initial spin.

QED: Crazy, but possible... And I'm crazier than CMC because immediately after you first mentioned the equator straddling twins, I found myself wondering:
How far north could such a pair travel before the CoriolisEffect starts weakening the (formerly)southern "anti"cyclone? Or would they merge like meshing cogs on two gears before weakening?
For that matter, would such a merger weaken the resulting combined(counterclockwise)cyclone?
If this were august the GOM would be in trouble at the end of this frame. glad its may!
Here is a wider view
Pressure has fallen to 1008 mb at St. Petersburg Airport.
really dead tonight but 28 days to go till the official start of hurricane season.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Pressure has fallen to 1008 mb at St. Petersburg Airport.
wow Thunder woke me up..its Monsooning outside here right now..wow i have rivers flowing down my street lol..
instead of going thru the the straights its gonna cross florida..
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
341 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

FLZ050-030900-
PINELLAS-
341 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH
WILL AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PINELLAS COUNTY BETWEEN
MADEIRA BEACH AND CLEARWATER AND BETWEEN SAINT PETERSBURG AND SAFETY
HARBOR THROUGH 5 AM EDT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS TRAVELING ALONG U S 19 SHOULD
SLOW DOWN AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN.

$$

MCMICHAEL
Quoting bigwes6844:
If this were august the GOM would be in trouble at the end of this frame. glad its may!
Not much there
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

FLC099-030900-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-130503T0900Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PALM BEACH FL-
405 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

...THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 402 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN OVER METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY BETWEEN BOYNTON BEACH
AND WEST PALM BEACH FROM THE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINS DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THEREFORE...THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE
SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. IT IS HARDER TO SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ROADWAYS AND THE CANALS AT NIGHTTIME WHEN WATER IS COVERING THE ROADWAY.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS
OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS MAY ALSO BE ELEVATED.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
Quoting Gearsts:
Not much there
talking about the blocking high.
Quoting bigwes6844:
talking about the blocking high.
yes that high would be big trouble for us if we had a big storm in the gulf and this was august gee..
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 44m
Scattered showers will be possible across Pinellas county the remainder of the morning with some locally heavy rainfall possible.
One good thing about all this..for florida it really helped with our drought index, in my area no longer in the severe range,maybe when this is over we will be in the Good range..lol.
Quoting bigwes6844:
talking about the blocking high.
That high cause fast trades and is not good for any system.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes that high would be big trouble for us if we had a big storm in the gulf and this was august gee..
yep
Quoting Gearsts:
That high cause fast trades and is not good for any system.
so u saying this is not bad at all?
It's been a while

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TONIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA..
.WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
GEORGIA. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CEDARTOWN TO ALPHARETTA TO HOMER WHERE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM
DRAINS...DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY
CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WITH THE WET PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES

NEARBY...ESPECIALLY THOSE CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT WERE IN FLOOD
EARLIER THIS WEEK.
Quoting bigwes6844:
yep


ewww...your avatar. :P
disgusting.

Anyway, looks like the rain is finally coming up towards my area, the bulk or our precip should come in a heavy warm conveyor belt rain.
Good Morning GS..alot of storms headed your way today..stay safe
snow in NW arkansas....should be the last time this winter.
should be fun

gfs
nam



off to a chilly outdoor swim practice, see you guys later

im glad im getting rain now, yesterday not a drop........
Looks like north florida and georgia's turn to flood today wow..

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
349 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY THIS WEEKEND OVER NORTH AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR LAGRANGE THROUGH FAYETTEVILLE AND
COVINGTON TO COMER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL PUMP VERY MOIST ATLANTIC AND
GULF MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD OVER
THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY.

.PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...
DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OCCURRED
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ACCORDINGLY...THESE MOIST TO WET SOIL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW ANY HEAVY RAIN TO QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO NEARBY STREAMS...
CREEKS AND RIVERS. SEVERAL MAINSTEM CREEKS AND RIVERS IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA HAD MINOR FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK AND HAVE JUST GONE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MOST STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS ARE FLOWING ABOVE
NORMAL.

.IMPACTS...
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS...DITCHES
...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND
CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES
NEARBY. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON
CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT WERE IN FLOOD EARLIER THIS WEEK.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN AS UPDATED
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. STAY ADVISED ON THIS SITUATION AND
KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA. CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB UNDER CURRENT
WEATHER TO ACCESS THE LATEST RIVER STAGE AND PRECIPITATION
INFORMATION.

$$
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

The weekend weather will be dominated by a trough that will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms in PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST FRI MAY 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS
MORNING...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
COMBINATION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL
EFFECT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...AS A VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR TODAY
INDICATED 0-6KM STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 277/ 8KTS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLOW MOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LASTING TO EARLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST TPW IMAGE FROM CIMMS ARE SHOWING
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE...AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT
THE SURFACE...WILL MAINTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER PR
AFTER 03/16Z WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CAUSE VCSH/VCTS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TEMPO WAS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR
TJSJ DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 15 KTS
SUSTAINED...SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SW WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CROSSWINDS AT THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT TJBQ FROM THE NNW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 10 0 70 50
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 20 20 50
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

The weekend weather will be dominated by a trough that will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms in PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST FRI MAY 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS
MORNING...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
COMBINATION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL
EFFECT WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...AS A VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR TODAY
INDICATED 0-6KM STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 277/ 8KTS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLOW MOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LASTING TO EARLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST
SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST TPW IMAGE FROM CIMMS ARE SHOWING
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE...AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT
THE SURFACE...WILL MAINTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER PR
AFTER 03/16Z WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CAUSE VCSH/VCTS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TEMPO WAS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR
TJSJ DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. ALTHOUGH LESS THAN 15 KTS
SUSTAINED...SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SW WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CROSSWINDS AT THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AT TJBQ FROM THE NNW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 10 0 70 50
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 20 20 50
And what happen with the rain event?
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A chilly morning of 47 with a wind chill of 39, wind gusts of 31 mph. Stood outside watering my flowers due to all the rain that fell the last three days skipped Vernon Parish, or at least my small section of it. I should have gotten dressed and put a coat on before going out to water!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgian waffles or French toast, syrup, bacon or sausage, coffee cake, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
Quoting Gearsts:
And what happen with the rain event?


No big rain event expected as the models backed down.
Good morning. Someone's gonna have a bad time in the Indian Ocean late next week if the GFS is right. This is 0z at 192 hours:



And 6z at 177 hours:

Quoting Gearsts:
And what happen with the rain event?


They do what they do everytime : backing off. They had strong wording 2 days ago, then now nothing.

2013 is boring and uninteresting so far in my area and overall in the NE Caribbean islands. It's sad to see some receiving too much rain and others nothing.

I agree that the N Leewards/VI Islands are not the wettest islands in the Caribbean. But they are not the driest too... and such a difference with the islands south of Antigua lately is odd. Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique probably had one of their wettest april... while we had one of our driest...


713. VR46L
My Goodness look at what is in the Caribean

Good Morning
Good Morning All..
66 degrees with 83%rh and dew at 62..
Winds 11 from the NE..
Partly cloudy,humid but not quite as humid as the last 3 days..

Melbourne Radar rainfall since midnight..




Jacksonville..




Tallahassee..



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Someone's gonna have a bad time in the Indian Ocean late next week if the GFS is right. This is 0z at 192 hours:



And 6z at 177 hours:



2 cyclones?! very interesting indeed!
Everyone have a great Friday. Aussie, have a great Saturday.
Countdown to June 1rst

The important thing is to be prepared for the worse buy hoping for no landfalls anywhere in the basin.

Here are Hurricane kits/Ride out items:


1. Flashlight(s), Lantern(s) (1 per person)
2. Extra bulbs for flashlights / lanterns
3. Collapsible water containers (enough for 7 days at 1 gal/day per person)
4. Portable radio and/or TV (I have Auvio 3.5" that uses AA batteries)
5. Weather radio
6. At least 2 sets of extra batteries for all electronic devices
7. Digital antenna for TV (if you have a generator)
8. First aid kit
9. Corded telephone with long cord
10. Toolkit - hammer, screw drivers, pliers and assorted nails/screws
11. Fire extinguisher (ABC type)
12. Manual can opener
13. Battery-operated fan
14. Duct tape
15. Blue tarp (15x20ft) and 100ft rope or cord
16. Gloves
17. Eye protection glasses
18. Automobile power inverter
19. Rain gear (poncho/raincoat)
20. Matches / lighter
21. Pocket knife/multi-tool
22. Plastic garbage bags
23. 5-gal gas cans (2-4) for car/generator WITH funnel (if needed)
24. Disposable camera
25. Battery-powered alarm clock (can use cell phone)
26. Outdoor extension cords (2-3 50ft)
27. Small window AC unit
28. Generator and 4-8 quarts of extra oil
29. Whistle
30. Plastic sheeting
31. Tree saw / axe / hatchet

Personal Items:
1. Prescription medications (2-4 week supply)
2. Non-prescription drugs (aspirin or non-aspirin pain reliever)
3. Mosquito repellent / sunscreen
4. Pet medications (2-4 week supply)
5. Pet cage (if traveling with pet)
6. Emergency phone numbers
7. Important documents (insurance/passports/Soc. Security card, medical records)
8. Home PC backup disks/drive
9. Moist wipes
10. $100-$300 in extra cash (small bills)
11. Extra set of car/house keys
12. Disposable diapers
13. Feminine supplies
14. Personal hygiene items (toothpaste, deodorant, shampoo, soap)
15. Toys/games for kids (deck of cards)

Food / Water:
1. Water %u2013 1-2 gal/person for 7 days
2. Nonperishable food %u2013 enough for 7 days
a. Peanut butter
b. Bread
c. Canned goods (fruit/vegetables/soup/meat/tuna/beans)
d. Dried fruit
e. Powdered milk
f. Energy bars / breakfast bars
g. Snacks (cookies / crackers / chips / nuts / candy)
h. Boxed juices / energy drinks
i. Cereals
j. Dry & canned pet food
k. Baby formula
3. Camp stove and extra fuel
4. Ice chest(s)
5. Waterless soap
6. Extra charcoal/propane for BBQ pit
7. Disposable plates/cups/utensils/napkins
8. Salt/pepper/sugar
9. Aluminum foil
10. Garbage bags


Quoting VR46L:
My Goodness look at what is in the Caribean



Good Morning VR46L..
Here's a part of the tropical discussion concerning the Carribean posted 8:12amEST..
It's a little muddy but I get it so thought I would post it for you.. :)

Nevermind..
See beell's post# 720 below.. :)
720. beell
Quoting VR46L:
My Goodness look at what is in the Caribean





TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 03 2013

...A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
25N84W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THAT IS ALONG
90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
...

Surface trough should continue to push off to the south and east ahead of the unseasonably strong cold front.

:-)
Quoting LargoFl:

Gorgeous graphic, Largo. Keep them coming. Good morning, by the way. Big rains ahead for you and me!
Quoting LargoFl:
im glad im getting rain now, yesterday not a drop........


Same as you I didn't get a drop yesterday but we picked up .70" in the early morning hours so in the last 3 days about 1.90".
Over 12" of rain and counting in NE FL.

48 Hour Total Precipitation Amounts from the 06 GFS (click for link)
Good morning folks! Three day rain total for me 3.71"

Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am EDT this morning...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay area - Ruskin FL has
issued a dense fog advisory... which is in effect until 9 am EDT
this morning.

* Visibility... one quarter mile to occasionally less.

* Impacts... driving may be hazardous this morning as the
visibility could quickly fall to a very short distance.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Motorists should slow down... use low beam headlights... and
maintain a safe distance between vehicles.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Over 12" of rain and counting in NE FL.


Big time rains, Scott. Tell me. How has your rain bucket done thus far?
Getting started here.



729. VR46L
PCOLA and Beell ... Ya both know I love blob watching ... ya are both killing my enthusiasm today ... LOL
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Big time rains, Scott. Tell me. How has your rain bucket done thus far?


I picked up 3.04" yesterday with a grand total of 6.02" of rain since Monday with lots more rain still to come.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I picked up 3.04" yesterday with a grand total of 6.02" of rain since Monday with lots more rain still to come.


Oh man!
Quoting VR46L:
PCOLA and Beell ... Ya both know I love blob watching ... ya are both killing my enthusiasm today ... LOL


They are still discussion our wave from the other day VR46L..
There is hope.. :)

".....THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W
TO 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1N37W
AND 1N42W. A SECOND PART OF THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1S17W
3S23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3S29W 2S34W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N16W.
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 2N2W 2N7W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N30W
1N35W 2N41W...AND 4N48W 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 8W AND
15W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8S
BETWEEN 25W AND 35W."
Sun is out here in Orlando and that means trouble later today as the ULL hasn't even crossed the state yet.

515 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS WILL DRIVE SQUALLS ONSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR ALOFT...A FEW STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
PERSIST ONSHORE MOVING SQUALLS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 3 TO 4
INCHES...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THOSE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. THESE WINDS AND WET SOIL COULD
LEAD TO SOME UPROOTED TREES. INLAND LAKES...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND
METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE GEORGE...SHOULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.
735. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Over 12" of rain and counting in NE FL.



Gonna need one of these soon!


Kind of a dreary morning at the beach..
Surf's up..


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I picked up 3.04" yesterday with a grand total of 6.02" of rain since Monday with lots more rain still to come.



3.06 yesterday... we shall see how today pans out.
48 Hour Total Accumulated Precipitation From the 06Z GFS:

click for link
welp, Saint Augustine FL is underwater. reeeeally wishing i had more ground clearance on my car, as the street has completely disappeared.
The sun is out!:)
741. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


They are still discussion our wave from the other day VR46L..
There is hope.. :)

".....THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W
TO 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1N37W
AND 1N42W. A SECOND PART OF THE ITCZ IS ALONG 1S17W
3S23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 3S29W 2S34W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 2N16W.
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 2N2W 2N7W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...
AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N30W
1N35W 2N41W...AND 4N48W 6N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 8W AND
15W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8S
BETWEEN 25W AND 35W."


ITCZ needs to move a little more north... but a nice blob coming off soon

Quoting VR46L:


Gonna need one of these soon!



Gro has already been in it already. Ask him how it was. LOL
morning everybody,



Quoting Chicklit:
morning everybody,





How much rain fell in NSB?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
509 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-032330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
509 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS
WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION
TO THE RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THE DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO A QUARTER OF MILE OR LESS AND EARLY MORNING RUSH HOUR MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES IF ENCOUNTERING FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO TODAY SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO
5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL
With daytime heating this mass of rain offshore will start moving across the state.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


How much rain fell in NSB?

Not sure; I don't have a rain guage.
But Daytona Beach Airport is reporting 1.04 inches in the past 24 hours.
We haven't seen any heavy rain in the past 24.
Most of the activity is staying off-shore so far.
Poor quality pic but my good ole rain gauge had 9.66" in it this morning and I'm closing in on another 1" so far today.

Quoting StAugustineFL:
Poor quality pic but my good ole rain gauge had 9.66" in it this morning and I'm closing in on another 1" so far today.


Dang,,, I hope you got ya floaties on.
Quoting StAugustineFL:
Poor quality pic but my good ole rain gauge had 9.66" in it this morning and I'm closing in on another 1" so far today.

..good luck over there, alot of rain sliding up the east coast.
Looks like we'll see the worst of it today:

515 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS WILL DRIVE SQUALLS ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WITH COOL AND DRY AIR ALOFT...A FEW STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
PERSIST ONSHORE MOVING SQUALLS MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 3 TO 4 INCHES...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THOSE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 35 OR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. THESE WINDS AND WET SOIL COULD LEAD TO SOME UPROOTED TREES. INLAND LAKES... ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE GEORGE...SHOULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

...
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND QUITE STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SQUALLS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
A SLIGHT RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS EXISTS TODAY AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SQUALLS MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR SMALL CRAFT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR STRONG AND GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
SOUTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY. DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NECESSARY TODAY. ALSO RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SHOULD BE REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

LASCODY


naming winter storms? already forgot most just a bad winter
Loving these showers as they pass by me heading northward..
Accumulating snow in North Arkansas this morning. Nothing heavy, but first time on record for the month of May. Don't know what the official totals will be, but about 1/2" at my house. Probable up to about 1.5" in the higher spots from what I can see. Sure there are some places that are higher. Multiple sigmas beyond ridiculous to have snow in May here. Average high is 73-74 for this date, and we may very well do it all over again tonight.
FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WIDESPREAD FLOODING COULD
OCCUR. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLOODING IN THE LOW LYING AND POORLY
DRAIN LOCATIONS.
Quoting VR46L:


ITCZ needs to move a little more north... but a nice blob coming off soon



Sorry about the late response VR46L..
Meds and coffee time..
Does anyone, those who do drink coffee, think that coffee cups are too small?..LOl.. :)

Yeah the ITZ is too far south right now..
Without fail it will migrate North..
It's like watching a movie in slow motion keeping the suspense at an elevated level.. :)
Yeah, we've been watching the storms training across Jacksonville...looks like more of the same for y'all today, with 12-inches or more likely before it's through.

I'm driving over near Orlando today so think I'll get an early start since it looks like it'll get worse over here as the day goes on.

The last place I want to be in bad weather is I-4!
Quoting ArkWeather:
Accumulating snow in North Arkansas this morning. Nothing heavy, but first time on record for the month of May. Don't know what the official totals will be, but about 1/2" at my house. Probable up to about 1.5" in the higher spots from what I can see. Sure there are some places that are higher. Multiple sigmas beyond ridiculous to have snow in May here. Average high is 73-74 for this date, and we may very well do it all over again tonight.


WOW!
Quoting ArkWeather:
Accumulating snow in North Arkansas this morning. Nothing heavy, but first time on record for the month of May. Don't know what the official totals will be, but about 1/2" at my house. Probable up to about 1.5" in the higher spots from what I can see. Sure there are some places that are higher. Multiple sigmas beyond ridiculous to have snow in May here. Average high is 73-74 for this date, and we may very well do it all over again tonight.
sure is alot of gulf moisture bumping up against that cold front.
We are sitting directly underneath the core of the very abnormally strong Upper Low. 
Quoting Chicklit:
Yeah, we've been watching the storms training across Jacksonville...looks like more of the same for y'all today, with 12-inches or more likely before it's through.

I'm driving over near Orlando today so think I'll get an early start since it looks like it'll get worse over here as the day goes on.

The last place I want to be in bad weather is I-4!


It has been bad all week especially near the dreaded Fairbanks curve. Yesterday the rain was so bad you couldn't even see the car in front of you.
Quoting VR46L:


Gonna need one of these soon!




If you ever have to go on one, get the top front suite. You don't want the lower decks because the sound of the elephants will drive you crazy.

P.S. Book early.
A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS A PORTION OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT OVER
VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VOLUSIA...ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.
Quoting pcola57:


Sorry about the late response VR46L..
Meds and coffee time..
Does anyone, those who do drink coffee, think that coffee cups are too small?..LOl.. :)

Yeah the ITZ is too far south right now..
Without fail it will migrate North..
It's like watching a movie in slow motion keeping the suspense at an elevated level.. :)


It is not good to drink large cups of coffee. 11 small cups in the morning is usually a good start.
767. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


If you ever have to go on one, get the top front suite. You don't want the lower decks because the sound of the elephants will drive you crazy.

P.S. Book early.


I will take your word for it ....
769. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Sorry about the late response VR46L..
Meds and coffee time..
Does anyone, those who do drink coffee, think that coffee cups are too small?..LOl.. :)

Yeah the ITZ is too far south right now..
Without fail it will migrate North..
It's like watching a movie in slow motion keeping the suspense at an elevated level.. :)


LOL never enough Coffee in the morning ...

Yes it one slow moving thriller ... you know its gonna happen just when !
Quoting AussieStorm:

Gro has already been in it already. Ask him how it was. LOL


The staterooms weren't bad, but the weather was rainy the whole time.
Quoting Grothar:


If you ever have to go on one, get the top front suite. You don't want the lower decks because the sound of the elephants will drive you crazy.

P.S. Book early.

LOL Only the elephants drove you crazy?
This one is for you Pcola

Quoting LargoFl:
Loving these showers as they pass by me heading northward..
I'm pretty sure out of all of the Floridians on this blog, I am the most skimped on rainfall this week! Largo is only 17 miles away and has a good inch more than I do :/

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT BURLINGTON.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET...AND SLOWLY FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
AFTER FRIDAY MORNING.
* FORECAST...FALL TO 16.3 FEET SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16 FEET...WATER AFFECTS LOW LYING BUILDINGS AND HOMES
IN MONTROSE AND NIOTA.
Well it looked right when I pasted it in. Oh well.
Link if you care to look.
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFYV.html


Jacksonville, FL (KJAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Melbourne, FL (KMLB) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Tallahassee, FL (KTLH) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Key West, FL (KBYX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm pretty sure out of all of the Floridians on this blog, I am the most skimped on rainfall this week! Largo is only 17 miles away and has a good inch more than I do :/
yeah but remember we still have today and tomorrow and as that low crosses the state the storms will hook back around it to the west coast again..we'll see what happens AND..we have Sunshine today so we get daytime heating..those afternoon storms might get strong.
Quick question for you guys. This morning on my way to work here in Palm Beach County I saw this glowing yellow disc in the sky off to the east. Any thoughts? The 911 operator was no help.
Quoting ArkWeather:
Hourly obs from Fayetteville Arkansas.



Your comment screwed up the blog. Please fix it. I had to put you on my ignore list to make the blog right size again.

St Louis, MO (KLSX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Blog is all screwed up now.
What happened to the blog??..:p
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Countdown to June 1rst

The important thing is to be prepared for the worse buy hoping for no landfalls anywhere in the basin.

Here are Hurricane kits/Ride out items:


1. Flashlight(s), Lantern(s) (1 per person)
2. Extra bulbs for flashlights / lanterns
3. Collapsible water containers (enough for 7 days at 1 gal/day per person)
4. Portable radio and/or TV (I have Auvio 3.5" that uses AA batteries)
5. Weather radio
6. At least 2 sets of extra batteries for all electronic devices
7. Digital antenna for TV (if you have a generator)
8. First aid kit
9. Corded telephone with long cord
10. Toolkit - hammer, screw drivers, pliers and assorted nails/screws
11. Fire extinguisher (ABC type)
12. Manual can opener
13. Battery-operated fan
14. Duct tape
15. Blue tarp (15x20ft) and 100ft rope or cord
16. Gloves
17. Eye protection glasses
18. Automobile power inverter
19. Rain gear (poncho/raincoat)
20. Matches / lighter
21. Pocket knife/multi-tool
22. Plastic garbage bags
23. 5-gal gas cans (2-4) for car/generator WITH funnel (if needed)
24. Disposable camera
25. Battery-powered alarm clock (can use cell phone)
26. Outdoor extension cords (2-3 50ft)
27. Small window AC unit
28. Generator and 4-8 quarts of extra oil
29. Whistle
30. Plastic sheeting
31. Tree saw / axe / hatchet

Personal Items:
1. Prescription medications (2-4 week supply)
2. Non-prescription drugs (aspirin or non-aspirin pain reliever)
3. Mosquito repellent / sunscreen
4. Pet medications (2-4 week supply)
5. Pet cage (if traveling with pet)
6. Emergency phone numbers
7. Important documents (insurance/passports/Soc. Security card, medical records)
8. Home PC backup disks/drive
9. Moist wipes
10. $100-$300 in extra cash (small bills)
11. Extra set of car/house keys
12. Disposable diapers
13. Feminine supplies
14. Personal hygiene items (toothpaste, deodorant, shampoo, soap)
15. Toys/games for kids (deck of cards)

Food / Water:
1. Water %u2013 1-2 gal/person for 7 days
2. Nonperishable food %u2013 enough for 7 days
a. Peanut butter
b. Bread
c. Canned goods (fruit/vegetables/soup/meat/tuna/beans)
d. Dried fruit
e. Powdered milk
f. Energy bars / breakfast bars
g. Snacks (cookies / crackers / chips / nuts / candy)
h. Boxed juices / energy drinks
i. Cereals
j. Dry & canned pet food
k. Baby formula
3. Camp stove and extra fuel
4. Ice chest(s)
5. Waterless soap
6. Extra charcoal/propane for BBQ pit
7. Disposable plates/cups/utensils/napkins
8. Salt/pepper/sugar
9. Aluminum foil
10. Garbage bags




Being in Mandeville, LA close to the lake I'm bugging out...only thing on my list is gas! Isaac kicked my butt last year, lost house and both trucks from the higher than expected surge. Taught me well Sir Isaac
Good morning all. Key West has dried out after a record breaking rainfall. Yesterday we broke the record for rain on that date. The record was from 1882 at approx 1.42 inches. We got 4+ inches yesterday. Combined with high tide at 4 in the afternoon, the water had nowhere to go.

I think we will be seeing more of these events due to sea level rise. I have lived in this town for the past 53 years and never saw the streets flood so bad as I was growing up. Just the fact that extreme high tides now come up into the streets verifies the increase in sea level.

I don't think I will live to see it, but I wonder if it will be a slow creep or a sudden inundation. And will the sea percolate up through the fill we placed on all the old salt ponds where there is now development. Only time will tell. Have a good day all and stay dry Floridians!
Another convection flareup in the Carribean

ark's comment is to blame....


Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. Key West has dried out after a record breaking rainfall. Yesterday we broke the record for rain on that date. The record was from 1882 at approx 1.42 inches. We got 4+ inches yesterday. Combined with high tide at 4 in the afternoon, the water had nowhere to go.

I think we will be seeing more of these events due to sea level rise. I have lived in this town for the past 53 years and never saw the streets flood so bad as I was growing up. Just the fact that extreme high tides now come up into the streets verifies the increase in sea level.

I don't think I will live to see it, but I wonder if it will be a slow creep or a sudden inundation. And will the sea percolate up through the fill we placed on all the old salt ponds where there is now development. Only time will tell. Have a good day all and stay dry Floridians!

Not a whole lot of good new, Key West Girl. Lots of rain, indeed. Good morning.
Quoting LargoFl:
Blog is all screwed up now.
Quoting pcola57:
What happened to the blog??..:p

Comment 772 stuffed it... I couldn't hide it so I put them on ignore to fix the problem.
lets just keep commenting so we get to the next page, it should fix the problem...


@Cmdr_Hadfield Chris Hadfield
While the Newfoundland ice formed a heraldic dragon, these Pacific clouds look more like Woodstock, of Peanuts fame.
Quoting AussieStorm:


@Cmdr_Hadfield Chris Hadfield
While the Newfoundland ice formed a heraldic dragon, these Pacific clouds look more like Woodstock, of Peanuts fame.


Wow thats cool...
Atlantic is flaring up...
Quoting LargoFl:


wow is that 3 inches in GA?
Quoting LargoFl:


Finally some rain for MD...
No rain coming all this week for us...
Quoting Torito:


Wow thats cool...


Here is his twitter page Link

He posts some really cool photo's.
Blog should fix itself with this comment...
Yep, there it is fixed :D
My apology to everyone. Admin please delete, as I am unable to get to the edit function that is off the page.
Ark, its fine now, we moved to another page now :D
Quoting AussieStorm:


Here is his twitter page Link

He posts some really cool photo's.


Thanks for that link.
807. VR46L
Quoting DookiePBC:
Quick question for you guys. This morning on my way to work here in Palm Beach County I saw this glowing yellow disc in the sky off to the east. Any thoughts? The 911 operator was no help.


LOL !!


You were only without it for a day or two ... try walking in my shoes ... went about 5 months without seeing the glowing yellow disc....
Quoting VR46L:


LOL !!


You were only without it for a day or two ... try walking in my shoes ... went about 5 months without seeing the glowing yellow disc....


LMFAO
Quoting VR46L:


LOL !!


You were only without it for a day or two ... try walking in my shoes ... went about 5 months without seeing the glowing yellow disc....

The glowing yellow disk!

ROFL
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Radar loop suggesting circulation center may be trying to form

Link

Interesting-looking:

Quoting AussieStorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Radar loop suggesting circulation center may be trying to form

Link



Area of interest for me there.
Quoting Torito:
Ark, its fine now, we moved to another page now :D

Depends on how many comments you have on each page. I have mine set at 200. I guess most have it set at 50.
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting-looking:


appears to be some low trying to form off the coast.
Maybe a STC or TS..
Quoting Grothar:


The staterooms weren't bad, but the weather was rainy the whole time.


And the rain wasn't the only problem we had, remember?

Quoting AussieStorm:

Depends on how many comments you have on each page. I have mine set at 200. I guess most have it set at 50.


yea default is 50.
Quoting WDEmobmet: Post# 773
This one is for you Pcola



Thanks for the coffee cup WDE..
I will certainly enjoy it !!
I think a straw would be in order..Lol
By the by..
How are you making out in this weather?
East to west flow is weird..
grrr im gonna take a break thil that post gets pushed out
Quoting VR46L:


LOL !!


You were only without it for a day or two ... try walking in my shoes ... went about 5 months without seeing the glowing yellow disc....


The rumors of the day star are true? We must inform the Grothar!
The only two models showing some subtropical transition are the CMC and ECMWF.


I posted the FINAL FLUSH. Its gone now.
Now since I flushed that post out, I am gonna repost my previous comment.


Another flareup of convection in the Carribean

Quoting Grothar:
Anyone who is in South Florida can look out and see that the clouds are beginning to move rapidly from East to West. A low trying to form?????




I've never quoted myself, but this is from last night.
827. VR46L
Penn Ewall Tropical atlantic Ir Imagery
Come June MJO is coming!!!:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Rotation
Good Morning. Yup, there appears to be some rotation, clearly visible on the doppler radar, off the coast of Central Florida due east of the Melbourne area.
Quoting RTLSNK:


And the rain wasn't the only problem we had, remember?



The parties you had in your stateroom didn't help either, Snake.
Non-tropical low and sheer is very high in that area at the moment:

Link
Quoting Grothar:


I've never quoted myself, but this is from last night.


Yeah Gro..
Seeing East to West flow up here is strange..
I dunno..
Maybe the front in Texas will crunch it..
Been lots of moisture for some folks for sure..
Weird may be the new normal as we had previously spoke about.. :(
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting-looking:



Surface obs suggest a weak low offshore between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral. Jet stream should reach the area in about 24 hours producing very high wind shear.
Quoting Grothar:


I've never quoted myself, but this is from last night.


Never doubt the wisdom of Grothar!
Again, apology to everyone on the post. Due to the obvious format problems, I was unable to get to the edit functions so as to remove it.
Quoting ArkWeather:
Again, apology to everyone on the post. Due to the obvious format problems, I was unable to get to the edit functions so as to remove it.


Stuff happens..
The blog will get over it.. :)

Station 41009
NDBC
Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Date: Fri, 03 May 2013 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 12.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (75°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in and falling
Air Temperature: 69.8 F
Dew Point: 68.2 F
Water Temperature: 74.8 F
Upper 40s this morning where I'm at. Only in the 60s today... in May, summer solstice only a month and a half away
28 Days until Hurricane season 2013!!!!!:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
28 Days until Hurricane season 2013!!!!!:)

almost 26 days here. lol
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for the coffee cup WDE..
I will certainly enjoy it !!
I think a straw would be in order..Lol
By the by..
How are you making out in this weather?
East to west flow is weird..


East to west flow is something we have dealt with the last couple of years with high pressure over the southeast if memory serves correct. I seem to remember storms coming out of Georgia southwest hugging the coast towards LA and then northwest and eventually north...

But this was definetely weird seemed convection was moving all over the place the past couple of days.
Wow. More heavy rain for the midwest. Not good.

the area of disturbed weather of the east coast of Florida has a weak 1012mb low associated with it. there are no signs of a surface low. most of the cyclonic turning is at the mid level.conditions at the moment does not look good for cyclogenesis.and it will take a long time for the mid level circulation to reach the surface. the most the residents of the east coast of florida will heavy rain thunder storms and gusty winds.
Bad thing about recieving all this rain in mobile, is that it always seems that after events like this we will not see any measurable rain for another 2-3 weeks

... just my observation
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
28 Days until Hurricane season 2013!!!!!:)


And another 40 days after that until the average date of the first named storm!!!
Quoting Grothar:
Wow. More heavy rain for the midwest. Not good.



What time frame does this cover? and....(((((((Gro)))))
There has been a big flooding event in Western Saudi Arabia this week. Look at these images.











Translation to English from Arabian site
Blob.

Quoting presslord:


What time frame does this cover? and....(((((((Gro)))))


Well, the map reads 24 hours, so I would assume 1 day. (How you doing my old friend??)
Quoting Grothar:


Well, the map reads 24 hours, so I would assume 1 day. (How you doing my old friend??)


I'm goin' blind...that's how I'm doin'...old age is not for sissies....,.as you well know....
Those flooding pictures are really something, TropicsWeatherPuertoRico.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
There has been a big flooding event in Western Saudi Arabia this week. Look at these images.











Translation to English from Arabian site


Those are insane, especially the ones that appear to be a flooded desert
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Bad thing about recieving all this rain in mobile, is that it always seems that after events like this we will not see any measurable rain for another 2-3 weeks

... just my observation

I know exactly how you feel. Believe me!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
There has been a big flooding event in Western Saudi Arabia this week. Look at these images.











Translation to English from Arabian site


Those are some great pictures.
865. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:
Blob.



I called it hours ago ........;)

LOL
Hi you oldies and as well goldies from a nice average springlike Germany with a sunny outlook for the weekend ... Not so good news for parts of the US I fear:

Drought and Heat May Fuel Early Fire Season in West
Published: May 2nd, 2013

Fire season may come early this year in the West, as it has more frequently in recent years, thanks to ongoing drought conditions and increasing temperatures. According to a new outlook issued by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise, Idaho, major wildfires in California could begin as early as this month, nearly a month ahead of schedule. Wildfire season is also expected to come early in southern Oregon and Washington, as well as in the central Rocky Mountains and parts of the Southwest.

...The report, which was released Wednesday, provides a four-month outlook on the potential severity and timing of wildfires across the U.S., and it is based on measurements of temperature, drought, and moisture conditions.


Read the whole article on Climate Central
Quoting Grothar:
Wow. More heavy rain for the midwest. Not good.

Yes Sir..Strange weather for alot folks. This is not like our typical spring pattern. This is unsettling for people here in middle TN. The ground is very saturated. Many living near the rivers will have problems.
Quoting ArkWeather:
Again, apology to everyone on the post. Due to the obvious format problems, I was unable to get to the edit functions so as to remove it.
That is why I don't post anything. I would probably blow it up for good if I tried.
869. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
That is why I don't post anything. I would probably blow it up for good if I tried.


You never know till you try .. I will help ya if you want Just PM me if you need help
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
There has been a big flooding event in Western Saudi Arabia this week. Look at these images.


Impressive photos! Earlier this week I've send some links to metereological video explanations from BBC, f.e.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/22362053

Additional unfortunately bad news:
Floods in Saudi Arabia kill 16 people
Torrential downpours have engulfed parts of the desert kingdom.
Steff Gaulter Last Modified: 02 May 2013 09:31
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
28 Days until Hurricane season 2013!!!!!:)
I think we may be having an early start to our rainy season here in Florida. Usually we don't get rains like we did yesterday until the end of May. Let's see what the rest of this month brings. Yesterday's weather could have been an anomaly.
Quoting hydrus:
Yes Sir..Strange weather for alot folks. This is not like our typical spring pattern. This is unsettling for people here in middle TN. The ground is very saturated. Many living near the rivers will have problems.

You are only 7 days removed from this.

Here's how April ended up globally, using CFSR 1981–2010 climatology.

Mother Nature is fixing the florida drought situation......
The Last Time CO2 Was This High, Humans Didn’t Exist
Published on Climate Central: May 3rd, 2013 , Last Updated: May 2nd, 2013

BBL, I still have to work ;-/
suns out here,gonna get daytime heating as the day wears on..
878. etxwx
Good morning all. We've gone from 78F yesterday to 47F this morning and there's a brisk cold wind out there. Amazing photos from Saudi Arabia! Wet/dry/hot/cold - it's all weather whiplash for sure.

Meanwhile in Central China...

The bare riverside can be seen in the Yunxian county section of the Hanjiang river in Central China's Hubei province on May 1. Shipping has been hampered by the river's decreased water level. As of May 1, the river's water level was nearly 20 meters lower than the peak level of high season in 2012 due to insufficient rain.[Photo/Xinhua from China Daily]
7-day for Tampa bay,guess the cool front makes it here........
Quoting VR46L:


I called it hours ago ........;)

LOL


Were you authorized??? (chuckle)
881. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
suns out here,gonna get daytime heating as the day wears on..


A couple of wee blobs are starting to spawn

Quoting kwgirl:
That is why I don't post anything. I would probably blow it up for good if I tried.


hydrus can help you with posting images. He's an ace at it.
883. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


Were you authorized??? (chuckle)


Sorry !! But the early bird catches the worm... (ok have a few hours head start :P)
Quoting Grothar:


hydrus can help you with posting images. He's an ace at it.
Gladly, but I am swamped with work. I will be back in a couple hours if she needs help. You helped me with that if I remember correctly..:)
Maybe we get a special TWO?

Definitely too much if this pans out..
Quoting hydrus:
Gladly, but I am swamped with work. I will be back in a couple hours if she needs help. You helped me with that if I remember correctly..:)
Thanks everyone for the offer. Right now I don't have the time. If I get laid off I will let you know. Then I will be having more time on my hands:)
The thing is multi-centered. Pretty cool-lookin' though.

Seems like it would be nudged back into NE Florida or SE Georgia

As I posted earlier, there was accumulating snow in Northwest Arkansas this morning. So far the biggest amount appears to be 4" of accumulation. Snow has never been recorded in May in this area. Ice, other than hail, is extremely rare in May in this area. Therefore this event is one for the weather history books for the region. Average high temps are 73-74 degrees. 
892. VR46L
Has anyone noticed the temps off the east coast of Florida .....

Off Coco



Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Fri, 3 May 2013 14:20:00 UTC

Winds: SE (130) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue2 min
Heavy rainfall should result up to Jax Beaches as flow around mid-level disturbance trucks in moisture.
Link
something sure is going on, something is in the air and does'nt feel right..well maybe its the cool front coming but..you know you just get a feeling something isnt right weather wise...we'll see what happens huh.
COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAYTONA BEACH...TITUSVILLE
946 AM EDT FRI MAY 3 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WITH WET SOIL AND GUSTY WINDS...SOME TREES MAY BECOME UPROOTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&
High-resolution NAM 4km keeps it disorganized. Elongated convergence boundary means multiple centers are likely to persist. Localized heavy rain will rake the Florida east coast.

Quoting FtMyersgal:


Nice Globe.
Nice spin on the storm at florida :D

I noticed another front going towards the storm at florida, cant wait to see what happens when they merge...
NAM says ~3 inches yet to come.

Quoting Torito:
Nice spin on the storm at florida :D

notice something crossing mexico from the Pacific too.....
905. JRRP
Quoting LargoFl:
notice something crossing mexico from the Pacific too.....


Ooh i diddnt see that one, nice one!

Its kinda been at the same spot so i disregarded it but it is moving now. xD
blob at the tail end of front close to mexico.........



Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Off Coco



Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Fri, 3 May 2013 14:20:00 UTC

Winds: SE (130%uFFFD) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in

Quoting CybrTeddy:

Station 41009
NDBC
Location: 28.523N 80.184W
Date: Fri, 03 May 2013 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70) at 19.4 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 12.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (75)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in and falling
Air Temperature: 69.8 F
Dew Point: 68.2 F
Water Temperature: 74.8 F


hmm the LOW stays by south florida..maybe blocked?......
911. MahFL
5.59 inches of rain so far in Orange Park, and it's still raining.
Quoting LargoFl:
hmm the LOW stays by south florida..maybe blocked?......

Might have to do with the storm coming from the north atlantic towards florida...
Quoting Levi32:
High-resolution NAM 4km keeps it disorganized. Elongated convergence boundary means multiple centers are likely to persist. Localized heavy rain will rake the Florida east coast.



However, some other high res models (HRW and the occasional run of the HRRR) are indicating that one center may become dominate later today. In fact the HRW warms the lower levels a bit up thru at least 850mb.
img src="">
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 03, 2013 - 13:45 UTCGOES Imager Spectral Difference
May 03, 2013 - 13:45 UTC
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 44m
Enjoying a nice break in the clouds and rain now, but with heating, storms will develop this afternoon
916. SLU
Quoting JRRP:


This is why the ECMWF forecast for high pressures in the Atlantic must be treated as a rank outlier.
I see that we got some potential TC activity going on for the east coast of Florida..thats why you should never take anyone's word on here as final..

told ya so..
High pressure going towards the low pressure in florida. if that storm stays stuck, it could mean trouble.high near new york.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Since it's right over the Gulf Stream, I might would think it had a decent chance of developing into something tropical/subtropical. However, I'm not sure it has enough time to develop with the approaching upper trough and fairly hostile upper level conditions.

922. JRRP
Quoting SLU:


This is why the ECMWF forecast for high pressures in the Atlantic must be treated as a rank outlier.

but it's going to the cold part
<
924. MahFL
Quoting AussieStorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Radar loop suggesting circulation center may be trying to form>


But it has 40 kts of shear to contend with.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's how April ended up globally, using CFSR 1981–2010 climatology.



Quite strange that most of the continents were cooler while the oceans were warmer...