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Rare May snowstorm bringing heavy snows from Colorado to Wisconsin

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on May 01, 2013

"Not the typical May forecast." That's the lead-in for today's National Weather Service forecast discussion for Minneapolis, where Winter Storm Achilles is expected to bring 6 - 9" of snow by Thursday morning. Snowfall rates as high as 1 - 3" per hour may occur in snow bands in East Central Minnesota this afternoon, and an 8 - 10" swath of snowfall is expected from South Central Minnesota into East Central Minnesota and West Central Wisconsin. With ratios of snow to liquid water an exceptional 5:1 or even 4:1 (normal is 10:1), the wet, heavy snow will be capable of downing power lines and tree limbs. However, the ground is warm, and accumulation on roads will be less of a problem than for the usual storm of this magnitude. The storm has already brought 7.3" of snow to Cheyenne, Wyoming, and 12 - 14" to locations 10 - 15 miles to the WNW of Cheyenne. Cheyenne's greatest May snowstorm on record was 18.3" on May 5 - 6, 1978. Denver, Colorado is expected to get 3 - 6" of snow from the storm; Boulder, Colorado has already received 8" of snow, Fort Collings got up to 9", and up to 28" has fallen in the Northern Rocky Mountains of Colorado.


Figure 1. Snow plasters trees in Fort Collins, Colorado, on May 1, 2013. Up to 9" of snow has fallen on Fort Collins from the storm. Image credit: wunderphotographer pkkeya.

A historic May snowstorm for some locations
According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, the greatest May snowstorm in Minneapolis is 3" on May 20, 1892, so today's winter storm has the potential to be the greatest May snowstorm in city history.

The 1.5" of snow that fell on Sioux Falls, South Dakota this morning was that city's first May snowfall since 1976, the first May snowfall of greater than one inch since 1944, and the 3rd highest May snowfall on record.

On Thursday, after the cold front from Achilles passes through Topeka, Kansas, up to one inch of snow is forecast to fall. May 3, 1907 was the only measurable snowfall at Topeka on record (3.2") during the month of May!


Figure 2. Snow on a Deserted Street in Dawson, Minnesota in Lac Qui Parle County on May 20, 1892. The storm brought Minneapolis its greatest snowfall on record, 3.0". Image courtesy the Minnesota Historical Society.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Achilles

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Distant rumbing over the ocean...Seems to have calmed down a bit
..gee its POURING rain here now,no wind to speak of, just rain coming straight down, i have a river flowing down my street lol.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Covered that for you....
Dammit Jim
See everyone tomorrow...........

493. TropicalAnalystwx13 5:37 PM EDT on May 01, 2013

According to this map, I may need to move to Brownsville, TX or Maine this Summer........ :)
504. VR46L
Quoting Jedkins01:
Watch out guys, it looks like hurricane May 1st is forming an eye wall with hot towers, its trying to go for major status before it plows into Ft. Myers....



LMAO
Quoting LargoFl:
..gee its POURING rain here now,no wind to speak of, just rain coming straight down, i have a river flowing down my street lol.
Largo............Just a bit of info.......The "No Float" mulch actually "Does Float"
wow check out friday..............
Quoting LargoFl:
jedkins you serious?
... Cough cough sigh...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo............Just a bit of info.......The "No Float" mulch actually "Does Float"
lol i just bought 3 bags of it saturday grrrrr lol
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
... Cough cough sigh...
lol he has the flu and probably has a high fever and is having delusions..we understand lol
looks like we dont get back to normal til sat afternoon...
Quoting LargoFl:
lol he has the flu and probably has a high fever and is having delusions..we understand lol
I think he is demonstrating humorous sarcasm. Lol. Are you drinking largo?
Quoting VR46L:



LMAO


Yeah I think our fellow bloggers in Florida might have survived or will survive this blob, even Grothar (thunderstroms have passed Lauderdale now), though narrowly. :-)
Sorry...........I woke up in a "Led Zeppelin" mood.........Black Dog
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think he is demonstrating humorous sarcasm. Lol. Are you drinking largo?
lol..its one habit i didnt seem to pick up in my lifetime..if i drank..oh 3 six packs in my entire lifetime thats alot...probably not even that much..somehow i never picked up liking the taste whatever...wish i did that with cigs too..didnt lol.
water starting to warm up on the east coast!
Quoting barbamz:


Yeah I think our fellow bloggers in Florida might have survived or will survive this blob, even Grothar (thunderstroms have passed Lauderdale now), though narrowly. :-)


the blob passed over us a little while ago.
The second blob is getting bigger.
local met just said we picked up .66 inches of rain today..i can tell you..by my house..he is dead wrong....
521. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


Yeah I think our fellow bloggers in Florida might have survived or will survive this blob, even Grothar (thunderstroms have passed Lauderdale now), though narrowly. :-)



I think they have all been through alot worse weather , Stuff that I can only imagine ... as everything loses its bite when it crosses the Atlantic !
Quoting Grothar:


the blob passed over us a little while ago.
did ya get outside and stomp in the puddles sorry i mean tap in the puddles
Quoting LargoFl:
local met just said we picked up .66 inches of rain today..i can tell you..by my house..he is dead wrong....


It's probably a rain gauge completely removed from your area...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my hurricane landfall probability map for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season (thanks to a friend for outlining the coastline). Given the long range pattern hinted at by models -- I posted the CFSv2's pattern forecast for September this morning, and Levi has posted some from the UKMET and other models over the past few weeks -- and analogues for this season, I believe the coastline from Charleston, SC to New York, NY, and from Slidell, LA to Panama City, FL are at most risk. Same for the Greater Antilles.

The Bahamas have a very high risk of seeing a hurricane strike, and so do the northern Lesser Antilles. Probably a moderate chance for the southern Lesser Antilles. Moderate for Bermuda, the Cape Verde Islands, and the Azores.

As has been stated, regardless of any probabilities given by myself or others, one should be prepared every season.



In my view Florida in particular based on pattern past few weeks/ months is at most risk this hurricane season.
...now that it has passed, does it look like a bolb from the back side?
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Seems as if the drought monitor is always a bit behind the times.

I dunno, do they have to perform some intricate ground hydrology measurements before the official data can be recorded, or do they just go by recorded rainfall? My guess is the latter, since the amount of rainfall alone does not necessarily determine drought levels.

That color-coded drought monitor always reminds me of the annual flu season outbreak map. By the time the official flu numbers come in from the CDC, they are already hopelessly out of date in real time. But still, the media will report a "major flu outbreak is underway" even though in fact the local epidemic may have ended weeks earlier. Same with drought reports it seems.



lol yeah its probably cause its a pretty lengthy process to cover in order to update which in a way is a good thing since you know it will be more accurate. I would imagine they do it county by county and its possible Pinellas doesn't have an updated assessment quite yet.
Quoting LargoFl:
lol he has the flu and probably has a high fever and is having delusions..we understand lol


lol well I wasn't quite THAT sick ;)
looks heavy over WPB right now..............
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my hurricane landfall probability map for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season (thanks to a friend for outlining the coastline). Given the long range pattern hinted at by models -- I posted the CFSv2's pattern forecast for September this morning, and Levi has posted some from the UKMET and other models over the past few weeks -- and analogues for this season, I believe the coastline from Charleston, SC to New York, NY, and from Slidell, LA to Panama City, FL are at most risk. Same for the Greater Antilles.

The Bahamas have a very high risk of seeing a hurricane strike, and so do the northern Lesser Antilles. Probably a moderate chance for the southern Lesser Antilles. Moderate for Bermuda, the Cape Verde Islands, and the Azores.

As has been stated, regardless of any probabilities given by myself or others, one should be prepared every season.

Can you post the CFSv2 pattern forecast for September?
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol well I wasn't quite THAT sick ;)
LOL im glad.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did ya get outside and stomp in the puddles sorry i mean tap in the puddles


Hi Keeper. Do you have the latest Africa image to see how that convection complex is doing?
Quoting Grothar:


the blob passed over us a little while ago.


Did it go over your house?
The first blob is just hanging in there, and may hang on long enough to restrenghten in the Atlantic.

The second blob is what I am keeping my eye on.
Not to bad!
seems like its just sitting over us huh........
Quoting Jedkins01:


I meant to plus your comment and accidentally hit minus :(


Gah, what a jerk. :-p
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my hurricane landfall probability map for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season (thanks to a friend for outlining the coastline). Given the long range pattern hinted at by models -- I posted the CFSv2's pattern forecast for September this morning, and Levi has posted some from the UKMET and other models over the past few weeks -- and analogues for this season, I believe the coastline from Charleston, SC to New York, NY, and from Slidell, LA to Panama City, FL are at most risk. Same for the Greater Antilles.

The Bahamas have a very high risk of seeing a hurricane strike, and so do the northern Lesser Antilles. Probably a moderate chance for the southern Lesser Antilles. Moderate for Bermuda, the Cape Verde Islands, and the Azores.

As has been stated, regardless of any probabilities given by myself or others, one should be prepared every season.



I actually don't think this year might be a huge threat to the US East Coast unlike the last three seasons. Given there's some similarities between 2004 and 2007 with this hurricane season as I discussed a few days ago, I personally believe as your graph also indicates that the Caribbean islands, Mexico, and the Gulf Coast are the highest risks this year. To be honest, if I had to pick a US state.. I'd go with Florida or Texas this year.

That being said, these predictions and conditions are utterly meaningless if we don't get a storm at the right time with the right conditions. Remember when Isaac looked like it would clock Florida as a Category 2 hurricane? Didn't happen - instead it hit Louisiana just after becoming a Category 1.
Quoting LargoFl:
local met just said we picked up .66 inches of rain today..i can tell you..by my house..he is dead wrong....


Just checked observations, Clearwater officially has recorded a bit over an inch and based on radar Largo has probably had about a half inch more than that, so you are right you have gotten a lot more than 0.66, not sure where he/she is getting that reading from.
Quoting Gearsts:
Can you post the CFSv2 pattern forecast for September?

ah and here comes that Low out of Miss/Ala that hits us on friday..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is that showing high pressure everywhere?
3 lows hitting us in 3 days..is that some kind of record for florida?
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Did it go over your house?


Right over us. Didn't even hit our neighbors.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Just checked observations, Clearwater officially has recorded a bit over an inch and based on radar Largo has probably had about a half inch more than that, so you are right you have gotten a lot more than 0.66, not sure where he/she is getting that reading from.
oh thank you thats more like it..everything is soaked here jedkins
Quoting LargoFl:
3 lows hitting us in 3 days..is that some kind of record for florida?


The one today wasnt a surface low,

The one forming will proboly be not either.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The one today wasnt a surface low,

The one forming will proboly be not either.
ok thanks
alot of flash flood warnings up along the northern gulf coast,hope no flooding up there.
Flooding is becoming a serious issue across SE Mississippi. Radar estimates are now in 8-12 inch range.

they upped this for the next 3 days.................
Quoting MississippiWx:
Flooding is becoming a serious issue across SE Mississippi. Radar estimates are now in 8-12 inch range.

I was afraid of that..stay safe up there ok.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



That looks pretty unfavorable for a lot of activity.
the 18z GFS is now seeing the low, its now showing it going around the penisula of florida

While everyone in the southeastern US is getting heavy rains, I'm sitting high and dry. Also, it is pretty warm. The high was in the lower 80s today, not far from the record. Boy, it sure felt nice.
18Z GFS is out now
I think I saw Levi make a post about how the Indian Ocean may get a tropical cyclone or two over the next two weeks. I wouldn't doubt it given the strength of the upcoming MJO pulse.

Looks like it will travel around the world. If we extrapolate some, it'd reach Octants 8 and 1 sometime after May 20. May have to watch for "Andrea" at the time.



Quoting Gearsts:
Is that showing high pressure everywhere?

Mainly centered over northeastern Canada and Alaska.
It needs to be summer already..
Most Americans Blame Global Warming for Extreme Weather
Denise Chow, LiveScience Staff Writer
Date: 01 May 2013 Time: 12:51 PM ET

With that I leave you to an interesting night with blob no 2 in Florida. All the best from calm Germany (weatherwise), Barb.

Edit: And I recommend to have a look at the new blog from weatherhistorian (Christopher C. Burt) on:
What are the Hottest and Coldest Inhabited Places in the World?

"Sweat" - "Shiver" ....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That CFS forecast would put the region from the Carolinas to New England at greatest risk for storms north of the Caribbean or off the East coast. Reminds me a lot of the Sandy set up.




Looking back at the CFS forecast, for a storm in the GOM it would favor the storm curving up in to the northern or eastern Gulf. If the storm were in the western Caribbean it may try and curve up into the eastern Gulf or just continue straight into central America. Here's the CFS again.

well good Night folks..i hear the night crew coming into the blog lol..take care and stay safe out there.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Keeper. Do you have the latest Africa image to see how that convection complex is doing?


Quoting LargoFl:
local met just said we picked up .66 inches of rain today..i can tell you..by my house..he is dead wrong....
Have had 1.14 inches in bradenton in the last 24 hours, according to my vantage pro 2 out in my yard.
Quoting LargoFl:
3 lows hitting us in 3 days..is that some kind of record for florida?


It is reminding me of the old days during the Florida rainy season. These things would last for days. I can remember some June months that it rained almost every day.
Going out to dinner, guys. It is always better to do it between blobs. Later.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Still hanging there. Let's see how it does when it makes the splash into the water.
18z GFS up to 120 hours

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think I saw Levi make a post about how the Indian Ocean may get a tropical cyclone or two over the next two weeks. I wouldn't doubt it given the strength of the upcoming MJO pulse.

Looks like it will travel around the world. If we extrapolate some, it'd reach Octants 8 and 1 sometime after May 20. May have to watch for "Andrea" at the time.




Mainly centered over northeastern Canada and Alaska.
It doesn't look favorable for activity.
Quoting Gearsts:
It doesn't look favorable for activity.

Well it is a four month forecast. I doubt it pans out exactly as depicted, I just think it's interesting how it shows a favorable pattern for East Coast hits, one of the things many here have been advertising since December.
Quoting TomTaylor:
That CFS forecast would put the region from the Carolinas to New England at greatest risk for storms north of the Caribbean or off the East coast. Reminds me a lot of the Sandy set up.




Looking back at the CFS forecast, for a storm in the GOM it would favor the storm curving up in to the northern or eastern Gulf. If the storm were in the western Caribbean it may try and curve up into the eastern Gulf or just continue straight into central America. Here's the CFS again.



I have my doubts about that forecast. Looks very El Nino-ish. High pressure basin-wide in the heart of the hurricane season just doesn't make sense when it's supposed to be an active season.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I have my doubts about that forecast. Looks very El Nino-ish. High pressure basin-wide in the heart of the hurricane season just doesn't make sense when it's supposed to be an active season.


That is what the ECMWF April MSLP forecast had.
Quoting Grothar:
Going out to dinner, guys. It is always better to do it between blobs. Later.


What are we talking about?

I'm late to the blog today.
I doubt the complex forming in the central gulf is going to bring much weather this way. It's following in the wake of today's mcs, diffluence aloft has decreased, and there hasn't been enou heating bends today's rains for destabilization over land.
A few severe storms out there this evening, including one passing right over the Frederick, OK radar site:



The SPC has a large severe thunderstorm watch up for that area and points south until midnight CDT:

18Z GFS TOTAL PRECIP OUT TO HR 144

Quoting Dakster:


What are we talking about?

I'm late to the blog today.
I'm not trying to be a jerk, but why don't you just read back and see? Unless someone is your personal assistant for the blog, in which case a PM may be more appropriate.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I doubt the complex forming in the central gulf is going to bring much weather this way. It's following in the wake of today's mcs, diffluence aloft has decreased, and there hasn't been enou heating bends today's rains for destabilization over land.


I agree, the vort lobe moving over us now is leaving negative vorticity advection behind it, so things will calm down for a little while probably. We'll see though, this is a pretty complex mess for us so as usual with Florida forecasts, its tough to say what will happen for sure.

Late last night it looked like only the Florida Keys would get rain and that changed pretty quick, so we'll see.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I have my doubts about that forecast. Looks very El Nino-ish. High pressure basin-wide in the heart of the hurricane season just doesn't make sense when it's supposed to be an active season.
I wasn't really looking at the forecast for what it showed over the tropics. I was looking at the extratropical pattern to get an idea of where storm threats would be. Hard to say how well the forecast will verify and TA did only posted the average of the last day of CFSv2 runs (4-runs). A 4 run ensemble isn't very useful four months out but the last two week average has a similar idea (average of last 56 CFSv2 runs) with the idea of higher heights in southern Canada and in the west US with lower heights around the Great Lakes.

... Umm, I forgot to give you this as a bedtime sweet from Germany. And somehow weather related because we had to wait for the asparagus season this year quite a while. Tomorrow I'll buy some for sure ...

Queen Asparagus reigns supreme over Germany

Germans don't just love asparagus - they worship it. Mithila Borker offers her thoughts on Germany's vegetable cult just as springtime Spargel madness sweeps over the nation. ....

(with an ultimate asparagus photo gallery)
If it makes people feel better, the CFSv2 has high pressures across the entire global tropics come September. Only area with lower heights relative to the rest of the Globe is the WPAC. Even then, there the heights aren't actually below average. Global warming maybe? This year has already seen incredibly low global TC activity.




Last two weeks of CFSv2 2m Temperature forecasts for September -- entire globe is warm.
FIRING UP SHORTLY

What's left of Zane looks to be near landfall:

747
WFUS54 KMOB 012242
TORMOB
ALC097-MSC039-012330-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0020.130501T2242Z-130501T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
542 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 539 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF LUCEDALE...OR 9 MILES NORTH
OF WADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
U.S. HIGHWAY 98 NEAR THE GEORGE AND MOBILE COUNTY LINE.
I just found out Amanda Knox is a temptress per Diane Sawyer, now I'm ready for blob #2.
747
WFUS54 KMOB 012242
TORMOB
ALC097-MSC039-012330-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0020.130501T2242Z-130501T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
542 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 539 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF LUCEDALE...OR 9 MILES NORTH
OF WADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
U.S. HIGHWAY 98 NEAR THE GEORGE AND MOBILE COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED AND A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE
GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. TAKE

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8859 3100 8858 3100 8849 3097 8820
3073 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 215DEG 17KT 3077 8852

$$







12Z & 18Z GFS : bust.
589. VR46L
What the Heck is that Building at the Yucatan...



NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes
Quoting WDEmobmet:
747
WFUS54 KMOB 012242
TORMOB
ALC097-MSC039-012330-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0020.130501T2242Z-130501T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
542 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 539 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF LUCEDALE...OR 9 MILES NORTH
OF WADE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
U.S. HIGHWAY 98 NEAR THE GEORGE AND MOBILE COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED AND A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE
GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. TAKE

&&

LAT...LON 3074 8859 3100 8858 3100 8849 3097 8820
3073 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 215DEG 17KT 3077 8852

$$









Interesting. A mesolow has formed in that persistent convection and it apparently provided the spin needed to produce a tornado-warned cell.

Like clockwork:

Quoting VR46L:
What the Heck is that Building at the Yucatan...



NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/vap_images/goes
Looks like popup thunderstorms from the daytime heating, if you mean what's on top of the peninsula.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Interesting. A mesolow has formed in that persistent convection and it apparently provided the spin needed to produce a tornado-warned cell.



Yea, definitely a little spin there... Could get interesting
The MJO forecast looks like it may cause some tropical activity after mid may in the North Atlantic and at EPAC. Time will tell about that.

Quoting WDEmobmet:


Yea, definitely a little spin there... Could get interesting


Right off the miss/ala coast near singing river island, there is also what appears to be a decent hook possibly a waterspout
Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree, the vort lobe moving over us now is leaving negative vorticity advection behind it, so things will calm down for a little while probably. We'll see though, this is a pretty complex mess for us so as usual with Florida forecasts, its tough to say what will happen for sure.

Late last night it looked like only the Florida Keys would get rain and that changed pretty quick, so we'll see.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some early morning thunderstorms tomorrow, though. There is at least still a TON of moisture to work with
597. VR46L
Quoting Forsaken:
Looks like popup thunderstorms from the daytime heating, if you mean what's on top of the peninsula.


Yeah thats what I am looking at !
Tell you what, I'm out here east of Ft Myers.....63 degrees to 71..back down to 66 in 15 minutes.....wind out of the NE-E at 20...rain, and radar shows a heavy storm coming in...53 yrs here, never in May...global cooling...damn....
Quoting MississippiWx:


I have my doubts about that forecast. Looks very El Nino-ish. High pressure basin-wide in the heart of the hurricane season just doesn't make sense when it's supposed to be an active season.


High pressure basin-wide didn't seem to stop 2012 from being ridiculously active.
Quoting Grothar:


It is reminding me of the old days during the Florida rainy season. These things would last for days. I can remember some June months that it rained almost every day.


Well I don't know about your house but last rainy season was like a classic one for much of Florida last year :)


Backing off, as usual.
Seem like if the caribbean is going to be the opposite of last year...
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I wouldn't be surprised to see some early morning thunderstorms tomorrow, though. There is at least still a TON of moisture to work with


Yeah exactly, while I'm not counting on another big complex moving through tomorrow, I wouldn't count against it either.

Also the possible lack of morning overcast could allow more significant heating which could also means stronger thunderstorms with the heating of day.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I actually don't think this year might be a huge threat to the US East Coast unlike the last three seasons. Given there's some similarities between 2004 and 2007 with this hurricane season as I discussed a few days ago, I personally believe as your graph also indicates that the Caribbean islands, Mexico, and the Gulf Coast are the highest risks this year. To be honest, if I had to pick a US state.. I'd go with Florida or Texas this year.

That being said, these predictions and conditions are utterly meaningless if we don't get a storm at the right time with the right conditions. Remember when Isaac looked like it would clock Florida as a Category 2 hurricane? Didn't happen - instead it hit Louisiana just after becoming a Category 1.

What similarities exist between 2007 and 2013 other than a similar SST profile and ENSO phase?
Quoting stormchaser19:
Seem like if the caribbean is going to be the opposite of last year...


Good.



This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What's left of Zane looks to be near landfall:


Need I say that all TC warnings have now been canceled.





Quoting stormchaser19:
Seem like if the caribbean is going to be the opposite of last year...
So basically no problems with development like they were having last year?
Hello everyone. I think I finally just saw a sprinkle at my house here in Spring Hill, FL. Well maybe...I did see a bird.:)
I do have a question: Why does the radar show rain over me when we are not getting rain? Thanks to all that can answer.
I hope everyone is safe, and has a wonderful night!
Interesting, I thought this gulf mess was only a mid level circulation, apparently not, there was a mid level circulation which is near Tampa Bay right now, but there is actually a tight little surface low moving into Ft. Myers, more than likely it is a meso low, but regardless it is tight little low. Surface obs indicate it is a small compact low with deep convection near its center, if it had sat in the southern gulf longer and there was little shear, it probably could have had a chance at becoming the first TC of the year.
There is a serious flood threat in southern MS right now, rain continues to pile up from persistent heavy thunderstorms.
wow...the blob went to mush
Quoting bigwes6844:
So basically no problems with development like they were having last year?

When you have more inestable atmosphere is more favorable for Thunderstorm development,In unstable conditions, a lifted parcel of air will be warmer than the surrounding air at altitude. Because it is warmer, it is less dense and is prone to further ascent.

When you have a unestable atmosphere at the time you have a TC is like if you remove a problem when this is trying to put his act together
Quoting mermaidlaw:
Hello everyone. I think I finally just saw a sprinkle at my house here in Spring Hill, FL. Well maybe...I did see a bird.:)
I do have a question: Why does the radar show rain over me when we are not getting rain? Thanks to all that can answer.
I hope everyone is safe, and has a wonderful night!


It may appear rain is over you but it is not. I've seen it happen before myself, sometimes you can just be unlikely to where the radar is either not high enough resolution to show that you aren't getting any, or its not quite over you.
Once again, its raining like hell east of Ft Myers, it needs to stop, or all the vegies are gone,,,,,this is frigging unbelievable
Went down alot since yesterday in the GOM
Quoting Jedkins01:
There is a serious flood threat in southern MS right now, rain continues to pile up from persistent heavy thunderstorms.

Just in from the coast, the 1% chance event for a 3hr duration rainfall is in the 6-8" range. There appear to be a few isolated areas estimated with 6-7" of rainfall in the last 3hrs, especially just to the NW of Van Cleve, MS, and south of Lucedale.
Quoting Chicklit:
wow...the blob went to mush
yep, but check out that little tiny thunderstorm that just popped up in the midst of the dry upper level air. A good sign there is plenty of low level moisture and lift.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there she blows.
1.2 inches in 24 minutes.....in May
Quoting stormchaser19:

When you have more inestable atmosphere is more favorable for Thunderstorm development,In unstable conditions, a lifted parcel of air will be warmer than the surrounding air at altitude. Because it is warmer, it is less dense and is prone to further ascent.

When you have a unestable atmosphere at the time you have a TC is like if you remove a problem when this is trying to put his act together
i think if im right Ernesto was the storm first that had that issue last year right?
625. MTWX
Quoting barbamz:


Yes, really awesome three new cams, moderated in order to follow the action in the harbour. And it seems they change audio channels, too. I'm still waiting for lightning and boomers though ;-)

I'm now on cam 2

http://portevergladeswebcam.com/


Edit: And now I see the rain on cam 3. Nice new toy!


You guys have ruined me! I can't quite watching!! The tracker on Google Maps is awesome too!
Wow, right after I posted #611 the rain finally picked up. I will take the rain here,we need it. It is light rain at the moment.
Thank you Jed!
Quoting Chicklit:
wow...the blob went to mush


But lets wait for the low itself to come into the gulf, shall we?
Quoting bigwes6844:
i think if im right Ernesto was the storm first that had that issue last year right?


Yeah, and some issues with trade winds
another meso low looks to be forming south of biloxi
Shadows at sunset give more definition to the visible sat pics.

This is one of the coolest things I've seen on a model in a while. The 18z GFS forms mirror tropical cyclones on opposite sides of the equator in the Indian Ocean, which then appear to become "locked" together as if each were a lobe of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave straddling the equator. So cool!

6MB GIF Animation
Quoting mermaidlaw:
Wow, right after I posted #611 the rain finally picked up. I will take the rain here,we need it. It is light rain at the moment.
Thank you Jed!


No problem :)

Unfortunately you guys missed the bulk of the rain the last couple days. You guys need it just as much as the Tampa Bay area. Hopefully you guys will get into the action tomorrow.
Quoting Dakster:


What are we talking about?

I'm late to the blog today.
Greetings Dak...Most of us were discussing 78L, which was producing a large cluster of storms with intense lightening over the gulf. It put down over 800 strikes in 15 minutes.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
yep, but check out that little tiny thunderstorm that just popped up in the midst of the dry upper level air. A good sign there is plenty of low level moisture and lift.



Yeah total PW is still very high. Also that disturbance generating strong thunderstorms in actual direr air over Texas will swing over the gulf with time is well. Mid level lapse rates are much steeper over there, at least some of that is expected to overspread Florida.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


What's CAPE in TX right now? 1500? at most?
The GFS with another run showing the upper low that looks like a hurricane.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Need I say that all TC warnings have now been canceled.







There is something funny to me about watching the low level circulation of a tropical cyclone shooting out away from the convection, maybe I'm just a geek, I don't know, but it always makes me laugh...
Quoting Levi32:
This is one of the coolest things I've seen on a model in a while. The 18z GFS forms mirror tropical cyclones on opposite sides of the equator in the Indian Ocean, which then appear to become "locked" together as if each were a lobe of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave straddling the equator. So cool!

6MB GIF Animation
That is pretty cool. Hopefully it verifies so we can observe it as well.

Had a question for you also, you mentioned on twitter that NOMADS doesn't provide full output for GFS at its native resolution (T574). Does this mean only the surface flux fields are offered at T574? Are things like 500mb heights, 250mb winds, etc. all at a lower resolution?
First Heat advisories of the season I believe. (San Francisco Area)
Quoting hydrus:
The GFS with another run showing the upper low that looks like a hurricane.



I think the GFS is taking a taking a algorithmic dump, an upper level low actually looking like that would be astounding.

If that does happen, it would be interesting though.
Quoting redwagon:


What's CAPE in TX right now? 1500? at most?

It's a bit higher out where those storms are firing.

Rainfall amount forecast for Zane in 12 to 18 hours:

Quoting Grothar:


new blow up of convection in the Gulf of Mexico?
Felt like an early summer day around Houston. Hard to believe its going to get blown away tomorrow. Looking at the WPC surface analysis, it looks like this boundary stretches almost all the way to Grise Fiord.
Quoting TomTaylor:
That is pretty cool. Hopefully it verifies so we can observe it as well.

Had a question for you also, you mentioned on twitter that NOMADS doesn't provide full output for GFS at its native resolution (T574). Does this mean only the surface flux fields are offered at T574? Are things like 500mb heights, 250mb winds, etc. all at a lower resolution?


Yeah, only surface flux fields and some radiation fluxes at top of the atmosphere.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I think the GFS is taking a taking a algorithmic dump, an upper level low actually looking like that would be astounding.

If that does happen, it would be interesting though.
It could make things worse for folks that have had too much rain....162 hours out.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's a bit higher out where those storms are firing.



Thank you, Sir. 2-3000? Not too shabby. And a good chunk of likely precip is at the Western edge, over the Llano river watershed.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


new blow up of convection in the Gulf of Mexico?
Yup..And it should grow a bit, and do about the same as this mornings convection..
AccuWeather - Drought in West; Storms in Midwest, East, South

"...During the second half of the summer, the pattern will begin to change. Moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic are likely to come into play allowing two things. One would be more liberally spread shower and thunderstorm activity, which would limit temperature extremes. The second would open the door for impact from one or more tropical systems."

"In the Southern states, it is possible the northwest flow of air could be disrupted long enough during the first part of the summer for impact from a tropical system.

Later in the summer, the frequency of storms from the northwest will diminish with a more typical flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic setting up over the South. Not only would this bring rainfall to the Florida Peninsula and continue thunderstorm activity in the South in general, but it would increase the chance for direct impact from one or more tropical systems from the central Gulf Coast through the Atlantic Coast."
Hi Levi. What do you mean when you said in a tweet that the CFS June forecast had a bizzare SST distribution?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. What do you mean when you said in a tweet that the CFS June forecast had a bizzare SST distribution?


Well look at it. The entire southern hemisphere has all of the anomalously warm water. It's ridiculous.





Quoting Levi32:


Well look at it. The entire southern hemisphere has all of the anomalously warm water. It's ridiculous.





It's THEIR summer!
Yep ... front is a bit past Gris Fiord and moving in over the Llano River.

"Gris Fiord has a permanent population of at least 130 rugged individuals. It is one of the most northerly inhabited places in the world."

Quoting FunnelVortex:


It's THEIR summer!


We're talking about anomalies, not absolute temperatures.

Quoting hurricanes2018:
Doubles
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I actually don't think this year might be a huge threat to the US East Coast unlike the last three seasons. Given there's some similarities between 2004 and 2007 with this hurricane season as I discussed a few days ago, I personally believe as your graph also indicates that the Caribbean islands, Mexico, and the Gulf Coast are the highest risks this year. To be honest, if I had to pick a US state.. I'd go with Florida or Texas this year.

That being said, these predictions and conditions are utterly meaningless if we don't get a storm at the right time with the right conditions. Remember when Isaac looked like it would clock Florida as a Category 2 hurricane? Didn't happen - instead it hit Louisiana just after becoming a Category 1.
Hard to avoid the east coast with a -PDO signal. -PDO largely explains why the east coast has been on the table the last few years.

I'd agree with a central American/Mexico threat and the Caribbean islands, which are always threatened. Wouldn't agree with Texas though. Anomalous ridging in the west means it's going to be hard to send a storm there. Just this Spring we've continued to see the cold poor into Texas and the SE. Should such a similar pattern continue it would be hard for a storm to make it into Texas. Of course, there's always the possibility, but that just doesn't sound like a favored track to me at the moment. Below I plotted the 500mb height anomaly for the days before during and after a hurricane made landfall along or near the Texas coastline. The storms I chose are Hurricane Alex (2010), Hurricane Alicia (1982), Hurricane Allen (1980), Hurricane Bret (1999), Hurricane Claudette (2003), and Hurricane Ike (2008).





The last two months have seen the exact opposite pattern...


Quoting Levi32:


Well look at it. The entire southern hemisphere has all of the anomalously warm water. It's ridiculous.





CFS is crazy?
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, only surface flux fields and some radiation fluxes at top of the atmosphere.
What resolution are the remaining variables disseminated at? For example, when I look at a standard GFS 500mb plot, what resolution am I looking at?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hard to avoid the east coast with a -PDO signal. -PDO largely explains why the east coast has been on the table the last few years.

I'd agree with a central American/Mexico threat and the Caribbean islands, which are always at threatened. Wouldn't agree with Texas though. Anomalous ridging in the west means it's going to be hard to send a storm there. Just this Spring we've continued to see the cold poor into Texas and the SE. Should such a similar pattern continue it would be hard for a storm to make it into Texas. Of course, there's always the possibility, but that just doesn't sound like a favored track to me at the moment. Here's what the 500mb height anomaly looks like for the days before during and after a hurricane made landfall along or near the Texas coastline. The storms I chose are Hurricane Alex (2010), Hurricane Alicia (1982), Hurricane Allen (1980), Hurricane Bret (1999), Hurricane Claudette (2003), and Hurricane Ike (2008).





The last two months have seen the exact opposite pattern...



You should draw a landfall probability map like I did earlier.

Repost for those who may not have seen it:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Still hanging there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should draw a landfall probability map like I did earlier.

Repost for those who may not have seen it:

Yeah, I saw yours. Like it for the most part. In fact, I don't really think it's worth drawing one since I pretty much agree with everything already on there. How did you draw it though? Looks like you are going beyond the capabilities of what Paint offers lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should draw a landfall probability map like I did earlier.

Repost for those who may not have seen it:



That map is quite a bit like last year.
Levi where's your landfall probability map? ;)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, I saw yours. Like it for the most part. In fact, I don't really think it's worth drawing one since I pretty much agree with everything already on there. How did you draw it though? Looks like you are going beyond the capabilities of what Paint offers lol.

Powerpoint and Photoshop. Got help from a friend as well.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Still hanging there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should draw a landfall probability map like I did earlier.

Repost for those who may not have seen it:



What happened that the Lesser Antilles islands are not colorized.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What happened that the Lesser Antilles islands are not colorized.

They were too tiny so I just decided to leave them uncolored lol.

Bermuda, Azores, Cape Verde Islands, Newfoundland - Medium chance

Lesser Antilles - High (North), Medium (South)
Did you all see this!!!:)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The moment of truth is coming very soon when it will splash to the water.
Hey Tom, with the current pattern, you are expecting a hurricane season like this:
(2010) Season


If not show me your analog year
The scary thing is the bolded part of the warning:



JACKSON MS-HARRISON MS-
750 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 746 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. EVACUATIONS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE MOSS POINT AREA NEAR SHORTCUT ROAD...MACPHELAN ROAD...HIGHWAY
63...AND FREDERICK STREET DUE TO FLOODING ALONG A BAYOU AND DRAINAGE
CANALS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ST. MARTIN...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GULFPORT...GAUTIER...ESCATAWPA AND
BILOXI

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Did you all see this!!!:)

Wait hold on is this two separate systems?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


maybe work its way down from the upper low tomorrow
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Water temps have gone up 4 degrees here in the last few days. But another cold front coming they'll probably go down again.

688. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should draw a landfall probability map like I did earlier.

Repost for those who may not have seen it:



That's comforting, I'm seeing a trend with people marking High risk for the Antilles. :\

Really don't need a storm this year.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


That's 1008 mb on the graphic right, in that small font?

Doesn't that suggest that the low that is expected to form may be somewhat tropical in nature?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hard to avoid the east coast with a -PDO signal. -PDO largely explains why the east coast has been on the table the last few years.

I'd agree with a central American/Mexico threat and the Caribbean islands, which are always threatened. Wouldn't agree with Texas though. Anomalous ridging in the west means it's going to be hard to send a storm there. Just this Spring we've continued to see the cold poor into Texas and the SE. Should such a similar pattern continue it would be hard for a storm to make it into Texas. Of course, there's always the possibility, but that just doesn't sound like a favored track to me at the moment. Below I plotted the 500mb height anomaly for the days before during and after a hurricane made landfall along or near the Texas coastline. The storms I chose are Hurricane Alex (2010), Hurricane Alicia (1982), Hurricane Allen (1980), Hurricane Bret (1999), Hurricane Claudette (2003), and Hurricane Ike (2008).





The last two months have seen the exact opposite pattern...




As you can clearly tell, my relative inability to read into patterns is my strongest weakness. My strongest area of cyclone forecasting is cyclogenesis. I just tend to avoid what I don't understand.
Quoting hydrus:
Yup..And it should grow a bit, and do about the same as this mornings convection..


Certianly looks healthy out in the Gulf.

Did anyone else notice a surface feature asscoiated with the first complex of convection come ashore near Ft.Myers earlier this evening?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They were too tiny so I just decided to leave them uncolored lol.

Bermuda, Azores, Cape Verde Islands, Newfoundland - Medium chance

Lesser Antilles - High (North), Medium (South)


Hey TA.

Look at this. Is this yours that I found on the web?


Quoting Grothar:


Hey TA.

Look at this. Is this yours that I found on the web?


Lol!!!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
827 PM EDT WED MAY 1 2013

.UPDATE...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAKNESSES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCS
SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SOUTH
TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING
LOCAL MODEL DATA DEPICTS A FEW ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. KEPT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
Evening all. This is the first time in a while I've been free - or awake - enough to get on the blog. It's been a hectic couple of weeks at work.

Meanwhile the weather here has been phenomenally good: clear skies with a great variety of clouds, brisk easterlies due to high pressure in the area, with cool air temps in the evenings to offset the increasingly hot daytime temps. Good stuff, I say...

I've been looking at this Gulf system and wondering how much precipitation [if any] we are likely to get from it. It seems strange to see a low traversing the GoM from the west, even at this time of the year.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey TA.

Look at this. Is this yours that I found on the web?


!

lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


As you can clearly tell, my relative inability to read into patterns is my strongest weakness. My strongest area of cyclone forecasting is cyclogenesis. I just tend to avoid what I don't understand.
No worries...steering is rather simple though. Just a matter of looking for troughs and ridges and understanding the flow around them. Once you got that you're set really. Forecasting involves a bit more, but even then you are doing the same thing just interpreting different model solutions and understanding their individual biases to arrive at what you think will be the most likely outcome.
Rain off and ON in WPB all night!!:)
Quoting hydrus:
Yup..And it should grow a bit, and do about the same as this mornings convection..
I gotta admit this morning's blowup looked pretty impressive.
Quoting Astrometeor:
The scary thing is the bolded part of the warning:



JACKSON MS-HARRISON MS-
750 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 746 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. EVACUATIONS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE MOSS POINT AREA NEAR SHORTCUT ROAD...MACPHELAN ROAD...HIGHWAY
63...AND FREDERICK STREET DUE TO FLOODING ALONG A BAYOU AND DRAINAGE
CANALS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ST. MARTIN...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GULFPORT...GAUTIER...ESCATAWPA AND
BILOXI

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.


Worst rain we've had since Hurricane Isaac. Some people had to be rescued in Moss Point. WLOX.com for more info.
Quoting TomTaylor:
What resolution are the remaining variables disseminated at? For example, when I look at a standard GFS 500mb plot, what resolution am I looking at?


You're looking at 0.5° (2.5° extended range) for everything published on the web that I know of except for some of the special products Dr. Maue and I offer. The native grid is ~0.2° (0.625° extended range).

It's important to realize that the GFS is integrated on the T574 grid for all variables. The maps we all look at are interpolated from their original T574 grid to a 0.5° lat-lon grid. I wish NOMADS would just publish all of the data in its native format alongside the standard lat-lon grids.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should draw a landfall probability map like I did earlier.

Repost for those who may not have seen it:

Uh.... so is the Bahamas in the red or the orange?

Maybe u could do like the NHC and just draw a couple of coloured lines along the axis of the really tiny islands...
702. MTWX
Quoting hericane96:


Worst rain we've had since Hurricane Isaac. Some people had to be rescued in Moss Point. WLOX.com for more info.


Totals according to radar are in the 6-8" and counting!!!

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Uh.... so is the Bahamas in the red or the orange?

Maybe u could do like the NHC and just draw a couple of coloured lines along the axis of the really tiny islands...

The Bahamas are very, very red. I debated making them purple.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Bahamas are very, very red. I debated making them purple.
I'm taking u off my best friends list.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Bahamas are very, very red. I debated making them purple.
But, SERIOUSLY...

I need to sit and do some analysis of conditions and analogues etc.... I am not at all liking the concept of a season so busy we need to be in the purple.... but if it's a valid possibility, I want to know in advance.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm taking u off my best friends list.



Better idea: Make your own landfall map and put North Carolina in the high-risk area.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Better idea: Make your own landfall map and put North Carolina in the high-risk area.

I have no objections to that.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm taking u off my best friends list.



Are you surprised? Because always, i mean always the bahamas are in the business
Quoting stormchaser19:


Are you surprised? Because always, i mean always the bahamas are in the business
Well, yeah... but we're not usually so red we're purple. We realistically expect a couple hits / brushes every year, but purple implies all hurricanes all the time... 2004 on speed.

NOT good.
Trouble.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, yeah... but we're not usually so red we're purple. We realistically expect a couple hits / brushes every year, but purple implies all hurricanes all the time... 2004 on speed.

NOT good.

Don't assume. :P

The Bahamas may very well be hit by multiple hurricanes this season...they may not. I debated making them purple for a very high chance of at least one hurricane hit there.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST WED MAY 1 2013

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING ONLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING DEPICTED AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN SECTIONS PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE A NEW
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL DEEP MOISTURE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
Forming a little meso low
Recon went out & chucked a dropsonde at the Gulf of Mexico earlier. You can see the shear in the wind direction & speed. The wind shift is fairly low, between 700mb & 850mb. That is sort of hindering even for a shallow system.

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 1st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 28.4N 86.9W (View map)
Location: 142 miles (229 km) to the S (172°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 140° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb 111m (364 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 155° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph)
925mb 787m (2,582 ft) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 15.5°C (59.9°F) 160° (from the SSE) 20 knots (23 mph)
850mb 1,511m (4,957 ft) 16.0°C (60.8°F) Approximately 10°C (50°F) 125° (from the SE) 11 knots (13 mph)
700mb 3,132m (10,276 ft) 5.0°C (41.0°F) 3.4°C (38.1°F) 260° (from the W) 16 knots (18 mph)
500mb 5,800m (19,029 ft) -11.7°C (10.9°F) Reading unavailable when relative humidity is less than 20% 260° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph)
400mb 7,460m (24,475 ft) -23.7°C (-10.7°F) Approximately -59°C (-74°F) 225° (from the SW) 27 knots (31 mph)
From Cantore's Twitter account - perfect example of the new dual-pol and winter weather

Jim Cantore%u200F@JimCantore
Sleet in the middle RT @NWSDesMoines Rain/snow line showing up on radar...getting ever closer to Des Moines


Link
500mb pattern continues to stress entire southeast at high risk in particular florida. classic US mega years such as 1996, 2004, and 2005.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't assume. :P

The Bahamas may very well be hit by multiple hurricanes this season...they may not. I debated making them purple for a very high chance of at least one hurricane hit there.
There's a reason we've been considered the "hurricane capital of the ATL".... since this most recent active period began, I think we may have had two or at most three seasons without either a strike or a brush. Any active Caribbean season almost always includes a strike for the Bahamas, either along the SE islands earlier in the season or to the NE later in the season.

I guess I live in the purple zone... lol...
very active capeverde season expected from this end.
Quoting hurricane23:
very active capeverde season expected from this end.


You think vertical instability being below average at MDR wont be a big factor to be the opposite from that?
Quoting hurricane23:
very active capeverde season expected from this end.
I would not be at all surprised by this.

Is anybody tracking ITCZ location thus far? I notice we haven't seen that early rise to the N as observed last year. It's a lot easier to get storms into the Car / SE CONUS if the ITCZ is relatively further south.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Trouble.



Not a bow echo or derecho but looks like one.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You think vertical instability being below average at MDR wont be a big factor to be the opposite from that?


na.. the MDR is going to be really active with a few Cape Verdes traveling into the Carib and just north of the Greater Antilles into the Bahamas threatening Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. continue to think the european is out to lunch some of its ensembles forecasting below normal pressures in western atl.
Quoting hurricane23:


na.. the MDR is going to be really active with a few Cape Verdes traveling into the Carib and just north of the Greater Antilles into the Bahamas threatening Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. continue to think the european is out to lunch some of its ensembles forecasting below normal pressures in western atl.
\

Like this??

Quoting stormchaser19:
\

Like this??



Again this is my take but thats correct. That is one of the analogs being used by csu.
Quoting hurricane23:


na.. the MDR is going to be really active with a few Cape Verdes traveling into the Carib and just north of the Greater Antilles into the Bahamas threatening Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. continue to think the european is out to lunch some of its ensembles forecasting below normal pressures in western atl.


Well if you mean this, these are not Euro ensembles. This is the average of the ECMWF, UKMET, CFS, and French models. I don't know of a way with the available products online to gauge what the spread in the ECMWF seasonal ensemble members is.

Quoting hurricane23:
Whoa... look at the %ages over the Philippines....
730. MTWX
Quoting stormchaser19:
\

Like this??



Ivan was the first hurricane I got to experience firsthand.
The 00z TAFB Surface Analysis has a low dropping to the SE in the GOM.

Quoting Levi32:


Well if you mean this, these are not Euro ensembles. This is the average of the ECMWF, UKMET, CFS, and French models. I don't know of a way with the available products online to gauge what the spread in the ECMWF seasonal ensemble members is.



Thats correct levi. Just think the european op for april is wrong.
I'm gone. Hopefully will get a chance to look in a bit more over the next few days.
But we'll see plenty of time hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Raining here again in dade.

Link
Got about five inches on the ground here on the west side of Colorado Springs. If the ground wasn't so warm, I'm sure we'd have double that. It's been snowing hard since 10AM.
What's with all this strong convection associated with the ULL in the deep central Gulf that will swing back to the NE tomorrow?
Colorado State Universtiy estimates an active 2013 season with nine hurricanes and 18 named storms

Meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray in Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science anticipate that the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology.

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” they explain in their 10 April 2013 extended range forecast.


“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.”

Klotzbach and Gray estimate that 2013 will have about nine hurricanes (median is 6.5), 18 named storms (median is 12), 95 named storm days (median is 60.1), 40 hurricane days (median is 21.3), four major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (median is 2.0) and nine major hurricane days (median is 3.9).

The probability of US major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140% of the long-period average.

They predict Atlantic basin net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in 2013 to be approximately 175% of the long-term average.

The forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data. Analogue predictors are also utilised.

“We anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño,” concluded Klotzbach and Gray.
Looks like we could see a very busy year once again. predicting el nino may not be a factor
After Sandy, the once in 1000 year storm, it makes one take pause as to what is to come this year. Florida has to be under the gun.
I'm not in the business of trying to predict the mean storm tracks for a given hurricane season, especially this far in advance, but if I had to choose between 2004 and 2005 as analog years, I would go with the former. Then again, the 30-day 500 mb height anomaly has favored a strong ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the central plains and upper midwest, which would favor a year closer to 2005 and 2008 where Louisiana to the Florida panhandle takes the brunt of things.

Of course, those who are saying that the east coast is at considerable risk are correct as well. I consider 1996 to be a decent analog.

But again, after the immense failure on my part to successfully delineate specific threat areas to the United States over the last few years (how many times have I said "this is the year"? :P), I'm not particularly confident that 2013 will follow the trend of any particular year.

If things persist this way though, either the Gulf Coast or the East Coast is in for one hell of a ride, but based on the upper air pattern and my select analogs, likely an amalgamation of both.
Quoting Levi32:


You're looking at 0.5° (2.5° extended range) for everything published on the web that I know of except for some of the special products Dr. Maue and I offer. The native grid is ~0.2° (0.625° extended range).

It's important to realize that the GFS is integrated on the T574 grid for all variables. The maps we all look at are interpolated from their original T574 grid to a 0.5° lat-lon grid. I wish NOMADS would just publish all of the data in its native format alongside the standard lat-lon grids.
Wow, that is less than half the native resolution. Friggin NOMADS.

Do other centers do this as well? Or is this just an NCEP/NOMADS thing
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wow, that is less than half the native resolution. Friggin NOMADS.

Do other centers do this as well? Or is this just an NCEP/NOMADS thing


Happy birthday, bro. Have a good one.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


Certianly looks healthy out in the Gulf.

Did anyone else notice a surface feature asscoiated with the first complex of convection come ashore near Ft.Myers earlier this evening?



I mentioned it earlier :)

It was a neat little meso low.

There appears to be some vorticity still left over northwest of lake Okeechobee that appears to have stalled inland, expect major rainfall tomorrow with a greater chance of heating combine with vorticity and additional cooling aloft and forcing from the upper low. Strengthening east steering flow at the surface means the strongest thunderstorms may end up on the west side of the state tomorrow providing there is heating and instability.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Happy birthday, bro. Have a good one.
Thanks Kori!
2004 was a really bad year for Florida.the states really suffer that year and the next one was worse.If this year takes a pattern as 2004 I would probably not see tc activity.
Quoting allancalderini:
2004 was a really bad year for Florida.the states really suffer that year and the next one was worse.If this year takes a pattern as 2004 I would probably not see tc activity.


On the other hand, if it takes one similar to 2005, you'll have your share of action. Remember Wilma, Beta, and Gamma?
cloudsat of the blob coming off Africa.




ITCZ has come up alot this week on the surface map. Getting close to seeing it all the way across.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wow, that is less than half the native resolution. Friggin NOMADS.

Do other centers do this as well? Or is this just an NCEP/NOMADS thing


GODAE also distributes NAVGEM data at a scaled up 0.5° grid, which is almost twice as coarse as the native ~40km grid.

CMC makes all of its GEM data available at the native 25km resolution, which is great.

ECMWF also can distribute its data at native resolution but at a ridiculous price.
Getting absolutely drenched here on Dauphin Island, AL.  Would be interesting to see the rainfall totals in the morning...
These sea surface temps are getting warm early already!
Quoting bjwilson:
Getting absolutely drenched here on Dauphin Island, AL. %uFFFDWould be interesting to see the rainfall totals in the morning...

thats a nasty cell!
WOW!
drove home through 3" flooded roads and it's only raining harder.  can't wait to see the maps tomorrow morning.
Finally after seeing the past few rounds of storms go around me this past week i'm gonna get a direct hit with some nice rain at 1 am :)






BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
WESTERN HAYS COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT.

* AT 1249 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PEDERNALES FALLS STATE PARK TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENDALIA TO
BERGHEIM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH OF ROUND
MOUNTAIN TO 10 MILES WEST OF BLANCO TO 9 MILES EAST OF BOERNE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GUADALUPE RIVER STATE PARK...
TIMBERWOOD PARK...BULVERDE...HENLY...TWIN SISTERS...PAYTON...SPRING
BRANCH...DRIPPING SPRINGS...FISCHER...CANYON LAKE DAM...
WOODCREEK...WIMBERLEY AND DRIFTWOOD.

VERY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO ONE INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Finally after seeing the past few rounds of storms go around me this past week i'm gonna get a direct hit with some nice rain at 1 am :)






BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
WESTERN HAYS COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT.

* AT 1249 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PEDERNALES FALLS STATE PARK TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENDALIA TO
BERGHEIM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTH OF ROUND
MOUNTAIN TO 10 MILES WEST OF BLANCO TO 9 MILES EAST OF BOERNE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GUADALUPE RIVER STATE PARK...
TIMBERWOOD PARK...BULVERDE...HENLY...TWIN SISTERS...PAYTON...SPRING
BRANCH...DRIPPING SPRINGS...FISCHER...CANYON LAKE DAM...
WOODCREEK...WIMBERLEY AND DRIFTWOOD.

VERY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO ONE INCH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.



I'm so happy for y'all! :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm so happy for y'all! :)
hey ya at home im back for another active year
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I'm so happy for y'all! :)
hey ya at home im back for another active season. im ready to do this
Quoting bigwes6844:
hey ya at home im back for another active season. im ready to do this


Hi Wes. Welcome back! Don't know if I'm ready or not but the season is approaching anyway. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Wes. Welcome back! Don't know if I'm ready or not but the season is approaching anyway. :)
yep did u check my image of africa? take a look at it . one word shocking its on this page
Quoting bigwes6844:
yep did u check my image of africa? take a look at it . one word shocking its on this page


Wow! Doesn't look like it's still May with them lined up like that.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! Doesn't look like it's still May with them lined up like that.
yeah i was tryna figure out if the MJO is causing this already thats amazing
Quoting bigwes6844:
yeah i was tryna figure out if the MJO is causing this already thats amazing


I think they were discussing that earlier on the blog. Somewhere. WU seems to be acting up for me tonight.
its going slow i know. u remember why about the africa storms?
772. VR46L
Quoting bigwes6844:
WOW!


Good Morning Folks !!

Nice image ! But still needs a bit of latitude .. but the Sal is rather weak at the moment and only imapcting the east Atlantic

Quoting bigwes6844:
its going slow i know. u remember why about the africa storms?


Can't seem to find it. May have been on twitter.
Quoting VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !!

Nice image ! But still needs a bit of latitude .. but the Sal is rather weak at the moment and only imapcting the east Atlantic



Good morning VR.
775. VR46L
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Good morning VR.


Guess its pretty late where you are ?
Quoting VR46L:


Guess its pretty late where you are ?


Yeah 2a.m. Usually more awake but I'm about to call it a night. Got the satellite tv guy coming tomorrow. I guess I gotta let him in. :) Everyone have a great night/day/afternoon.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah 2a.m. Usually more awake but I'm about to call it a night. Got the satellite tv guy coming tomorrow. I guess I gotta let him in. :) Everyone have a great night/day/afternoon.
night at home
Quoting VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !!

Nice image ! But still needs a bit of latitude .. but the Sal is rather weak at the moment and only imapcting the east Atlantic

yhanks it really shows me to get pre pared early this year
Quoting VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !!

Nice image ! But still needs a bit of latitude .. but the Sal is rather weak at the moment and only imapcting the east Atlantic



That CIMSS chart for SAL is not the best way to look at dust or dry air = SAL. It tends to be interpreted, perceived as a dust product and clearly overshoots its intentions. There is actually very little dust in the eATL. For a better look at dust use EUMETSAT's dust product.



And, for dry air/moisture use a simple water vapor product. For dust, one should generally use the mid-level water vapor products - the layer dust resides. The orange area in this chart, however, is not dust - it's dry air.

A few weeks back much of the MDR was dry, but you can see in the following two charts that the region has gotten more moist. And, it will continue to moisten with trade winds settling down, getting more surface lift with warming daytime temperatures, as well as the ITCZ getting higher climatologically. Notice there is more dry air in the mid-level than in the upper levels.

Mid-Levels



Upper Levels

780. VR46L
Quoting bigwes6844:
yhanks it really shows me to get pre pared early this year


Your Welcome!

Are you just a season™ blogger haven't noticed you around since last Atlantic season !
782. VR46L
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


That CIMSS chart for SAL is not the best way to look at dust or dry air = SAL. It tends to be interpreted, perceived as a dust product and clearly overshoots its intentions. There is actually very little dust in the eATL. For a better look at dust use EUMETSAT's dust product.



And, for dry air/moisture use a simple water vapor product. For dust, one should generally use the mid-level water vapor products - the layer dust resides. The orange area in this chart, however, is not dust - it's dry air.

A few weeks back much of the MDR was dry, but you can see in the following two charts that the region has gotten more moist. And, it will continue to moisten with trade winds settling down, getting more surface lift with warming daytime temperatures, as well as the ITCZ getting higher climatologically. Notice there is more dry air in the mid-level than in the upper levels.

Mid-Levels



Upper Levels



Wow Thanks for the info ... I do usually look at some of that info but was lazy still early here .. The one image I really Dont like is this one ...Could be a desert and it sees moisture LOL

783. VR46L
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah 2a.m. Usually more awake but I'm about to call it a night. Got the satellite tv guy coming tomorrow. I guess I gotta let him in. :) Everyone have a great night/day/afternoon.


Good Night At Home
Quoting VR46L:


Wow Thanks for the info ... I do usually look at some of that info but was lazy still early here .. The one image I really Dont like is this one ...Could be a desert and it sees moisture
LOL



Welcome. Understood, agreed. Certain products do certain things better or worse than others. There is different data interpretation, differently displayed channels or outputs that will vary from product to product. You just have to stay with it and figure some things, eventually discerning the ones that are more dependable, accurate over time.
785. VR46L
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Welcome. Understood, agreed. Certain products do certain things better or worse than others. There is different data interpretation, differently displayed channels or outputs that will vary from product to product. You just have to stay with it and figure some things, eventually discerning the ones that are more dependable, accurate over time.


I actually have been playing around with the root directory of where those images you posted are some really nice imagery on there Thanks

Quoting VR46L:


Your Welcome!

Are you just a season™ blogger haven't noticed you around since last Atlantic season !
lol u can say that! i normally tend to ride the blog on may 1st until november around thanksgiving. i tend to peak at the blog ever so often during the winter but i love hurricane season time. but yes im out from hibernation mode
getting ready to exit africa
for these temps to be this warm already wow
Good morning/afternoon/evening all

Such a calm morning here on the island. Not a leaf moving, no chickens calling, no traffic....

I think I'm up too early!

Lindy
Good Morning Folks!..7-day for Tampa Bay area............
lets see if the sun comes out today around here......
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
exiting africa? what the heck its not even hurricane season yet
Quoting islander101010:
exiting africa? what the heck its not even hurricane season yet
It will probably go poof soon.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

The rainy days start today as a trough moves nearby the islands causing scattered showers and thunderstorms that may cause flash flooding. This weather is forecast to last until early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST THU MAY 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
STREAM IS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE JET STREAM WILL
CONSOLIDATE NORTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL.

AT MID LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN A LARGER LOW PRESSURE POOL WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN BY TUESDAY A
RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO AND
NORTH NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS IS BEST OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST BUT RETURNS OVER PUERTO RICO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MORE VIGOROUSLY THEN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODEST EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES VERY LIGHT ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. BANDS OF MOISTURE
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN A BAND RETURNS
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW PRESSURE
GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A
LONG RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS BECAME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES MOVING ACROSS
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO...FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW AT 850 MB BECOMES SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRESENT SOME DRYING AND IMPEDE
THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A WHILE ESPECIALLY
NEAR SAN JUAN...BUT EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO WIN OVER AND SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DID NOT
DEEPEN THE MOISTURE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED FOR TODAY SO AREAS AROUND
THE FRINGE OF THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT LESS
THAN THOSE IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...UP TO 700 MB...MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN
BANDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL
TUESDAY. BRINGING HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO THE
EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. BY SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE SURROUNDING WATERS ALL NIGHT AND WILL DAMPEN THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNINGS...QUITE THE
OPPOSITE OF NORMAL FLOW HERE. CAPE WILL BE BEST TODAY AND TOMORROW
BUT WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE 1800 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT SUNDAY AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
SLOW MOVING PRODUCING COPIOUS RAIN AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY UNTIL THEN. THE WETTEST WEATHER SHOULD SEE ITS LAST HURRAH
ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU MORNING EXCEPT OCNL MVFR IN SHRA AT TNCM/TKPK AND
PSBL AT TISX/TIST. MOISTURE WL SPREAD WESTWARD FM LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS E AND N PR. SCT MVFR/ISOLD IFR DURING
SHRA IN AFT AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK WITH WIDESPREAD MTN OBSC.
MAY ADJUST THESE TAFS FOR TEMPO PDS. LLVL WIND BLO FL050 S-SE 5-12
KT VEERING TO SW AND INCRG ABV.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EXCEPT FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 76 / 40 10 70 0
STT 84 75 85 79 / 30 40 40 20
Good Morning Everybody
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. It's a slightly wet 64 degrees. Radars shows no rain, but there's a slight drizzle coming down. High expected around 74 later on, and then the temps drop for tomorrow.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: egg casserole, blueberry and bran muffins, bacon and sausage, fresh fruit and apple or orange juice. Enjoy.
this could be bad news for us here in florida..as i walked the dogs this morning i saw patches of clear sky thru the broken overcast,with that LOW coming towards us in the gulf the last thing we need here..is daytime heating making the storms worse huh....stay safe and alert today folks.
Heavy rain on my doorstep! So far all the rain forecasts for the P'cola area have been way overdone. It's now looking like it may make up for it today. I hate working in the rain. Have a good day all.
folks in the keys and miami had better watch this low carefully..
Quoting LargoFl:
folks in the keys and miami had better watch this low carefully..


Can I watch it too?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Can I watch it too?
LOL good morning..Nam has this low slipping down under florida thru the straights..hopefully it doesnt strengthen any during the day today,it really whacked mississippi etc with extremely heavy rains and a few tornado's...stay safe down there
wow a Freeze all the way down into Texas?................FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM TONIGHT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

* TEMPERATURE...DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING DAYBREAK
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LAWN FURNITURE...TRAMPOLINES...AND OTHER LIGHT WEIGHT
OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL EXPERIENCE BUFFETING. SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE
COVERED TO PREVENT DAMAGE FROM THIS LATE SEASON FREEZE.
Quoting LargoFl:
this could be bad news for us here in florida..as i walked the dogs this morning i saw patches of clear sky thru the broken overcast,with that LOW coming towards us in the gulf the last thing we need here..is daytime heating making the storms worse huh....stay safe and alert today folks.

Same exact thing I thought this morning when I was out.



Should be a fun one today.
Looking foreward to the next storm!
Good morning Largo and everyone. Well, I just emptied my rain gauge here in Madeira Beach and we got just a hair shy of 1.20" yesterday with no complaints here. That was the most we've seen in a long time.
.96" at my house last night and it's still coming down now here north of orlando. Picked up nearly 4" of rain so far this week with another 4" to 5" on the way the next several days.
819. Jax82
Plenty of rain in store for NFL today. Flood watches and wind advisories.

Last night in MD we got .12" here, even though there wasn't anything on the radar. We need the rain here, the ground is getting dry.
port everglades fort lauderdale 3 CAMS link

Cam #3 show you a view over the intercoastal and ocean this morning. All in all, still nice, but I am part duck.

Thanks to "barbamz" yesterday for making me aware of these 3 webcams located in my backyard.

Hola Y'all have a great Thursday
Thursday AM.... Good Morning!
Quoting Jax82:
Plenty of rain in store for NFL today. Flood watches and wind advisories.



Hey, just a tip, but you should turn on the storm display on the radar you put up, it helps to show what is in the storm currently. (hail)
Quoting Jax82:
Plenty of rain in store for NFL today. Flood watches and wind advisories.



Look at what the NWS of Melbourne has to say about the rest of the week. This would end the drought for eastern FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK...

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY TO YESTERDAY
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST CONTINUING TO SLIDE EASTWARDS AND SEVERAL VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND IT INTO THE PENINSULA. TEMPS ALOFT WILL TAKE A DIP TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES CLOSER TO THE FL PENINSULA AND 500MB
TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN -12C AND -14C THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING PWATS BETWEEN
1.5"-1.7"...THOUGH THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGHEST PWATS WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN S OF CENTRAL FL WHERE IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUT AND
BE PUSHED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH NOT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. WHILE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERALL MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...THERE SEEMS TO BE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
MORE DAYTIME HEATING THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.

ALL IN ALL...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WET DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY ACTIVITY. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REGION MORE FAVORED FOR ACTIVITY...SO POPS
REMAIN 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S...THOUGH TEMPS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S IN A FEW PLACES
WITH MORE SUN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY
FROM BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-SAT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GULF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THIS KIND OF SETUP OFTEN RESULTS IN A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...
PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST. A MID-LATE MAY CASE IN 2009 COMES TO
MIND WHERE UPWARDS OF 20 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED ALONG A PORTION
OF OUR COAST. HAVE TOYED WITH ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL SETUP.


REGARDLESS...HIGH POPS ARE IN STORE FOR FRI AND HAVE SETTLED ON 70
PERCENT AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THE GFS SHOWS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH COAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WILL GO WITH
50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR LIKELY POPS ALONG
THE COAST FRI NIGHT AND THE NORTH COAST ON SAT.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 68 78 68 / 70 70 70 60
MCO 80 67 82 66 / 70 50 70 50
MLB 78 69 80 68 / 70 60 70 60
VRB 78 69 81 68 / 70 60 70 60
LEE 79 67 79 65 / 70 50 70 50
SFB 79 67 82 66 / 70 60 70 50
ORL 79 68 81 67 / 70 50 70 50
FPR 78 69 81 68 / 70 50 70 60


Everyone have a great Thursday! Aussie, have a great Friday!
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning Largo and everyone. Well, I just emptied my rain gauge here in Madeira Beach and we got just a hair shy of 1.20" yesterday with no complaints here. That was the most we've seen in a long time.


I guess my 1" to 2" was spot on for you yesterday.
828. VR46L
Hmm I know some are interested in the wave coming off Africa at the moment ... I think the one about to enter the Horn is more interesting


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
.96" at my house last night and it's still coming down now here north of orlando. Picked up nearly 4" of rain so far this week with another 4" to 5" on the way the next several days.

Scott. That's terrific! I'll be okay with .96" over by me, but hoping for a lot more. Hoping the 2-3" totals hold up. We shall see.

Glad to hear the news has been good with you thus far...
Hey guys...

I'm excited, just got my lifeguard certification and several job offers to start working later this month...

Inclement weather is officially my best friend...

Go Summer Popup Thunderstorms!!!
wow new GFS giving N GA more rain than before...nice

NAM agrees too




Quoting VR46L:
Hmm I know some are interested in the wave coming off Africa at the moment ... I think the one about to enter the Horn is more interesting




The one emerging the coast is at least hanging on. That one you mentioned looks good.
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning Largo and everyone. Well, I just emptied my rain gauge here in Madeira Beach and we got just a hair shy of 1.20" yesterday with no complaints here. That was the most we've seen in a long time.


Good mornign icmoore. Down here in Fort Myers my rain guage read 2.72". It was a real frog strangler. Looks like we will get more rain today
It rain on and off all night in WPB!!:)
some places may not escape the 60s on saturday under the ULL....in may...ouch.

Spann says very small hail or graupel may also exist with the showers due to very very cold temps above the ground.

I rememeber an event like that last year here where it was 55F in the fall i believe, and very windy and humid.
Upper temps were -22 to -24C and the scattered light showers brought me maybe graupel to marble sized hail at most several times.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
wow new GFS giving N GA more rain than before...nice

NAM agrees too





Looking great for you. You have a lot to be excited about. Congrats.

What an odd confluence of rain beween systems moving west from Daytona and systems moving north from Orlando? It is like they crisscross and don't notice each other rather than merge. Is that an artifact from Radar, picking up systems at different levels?

Looks like the African waves have shaped up nicely in the last 24 hours, from disorganized into orderly "smoke signals" over the continent.
Good Morning... .98 in. so far and the day hasn't even started.
Why is it none of you noticed the blob in the Caribbean. Must I do everything in the morning?

That 2.5" strip of orange across central Florida is just what the area needed. Lets hope the ground doesn't eat it all and there is runoff to the lakes too.
Today!
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Nice globe!

I usually look here during near the Indian Ocean for disturbances. Many times some of the big waves exiting the African west coast start here.

Hey Gro!
Where is that blob on post #846? South Cuba looks clear there. Your post shows a blob bigger than is hitting south Florida.
Rain coming
Quoting biff4ugo:
Hey Gro!
Where is that blob on post #846? South Cuba looks clear there. Your post shows a blob bigger than is hitting south Florida.


That is because the post in #846 is from yesterday, and mine is from today. Notice the date!

(P.S. and people say I'm slipping :)

853. VR46L
North America-CONUS East vap_images/goes






Quoting SFLWeatherman:



Good thing you just changed that SFL. The first one had a date of May 1. This is much better.
Quoting VR46L:
North America-CONUS East vap_images/goes








Oh, sure. Now you are all going to be posting it. LOL


Morning VR.
Quoting Grothar:
Why is it none of you noticed the blob in the Caribbean. Must I do everything in the morning?

\

That blob formed behind yesterday's blob and moved south. Into more favorable conditions...
857. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, sure. Now you are all going to be posting it. LOL


Morning VR.


Noticed it earlier on ... sorry ;)

Morning Again Folks

good morning, the rain has just started here along the nsb coast
MORNING REGIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
815 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

NOTE: RAINFALL IS FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7AM(EST)/8AM(EDT).
: HIGH 12 HOUR 24 HOUR
: YESTERDAY LOW RAINFALL AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS TO 8 AM TO 8 AM
:.BR MLB 0502 E DH07/TAIRZX/TAIRZN/PPDRZZ
: (Values are high temp/low temp/precipitation)
DAB : DAYTONA BEACH INTL APT : 81 / 69 / 0.13
FPR : ST LUCIE COUNTY INTL APT : 83 / 68 / 1.53
LEE : LAKE COUNTY APT : 81 / 68 / 0.20
MLB : MELBOURNE INTL APT : 79 / 67 / 1.50
MCO : ORLANDO INTL APT : 79 / 67 / 0.24
ORL : ORLANDO EXEC APT : 77 / 66 / 1.10
SFB : ORLANDO SANFORD APT : 79 / 66 / 0.51
VRB : VERO BEACH APT : 82 / 67 / 2.24
:
.END
THESE DATA ARE PRELIMINARY AND HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FINAL QUALITY CONTROL BY THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER(NCDC). THEREFORE THESE DATA ARE SUBJECT TO REVISION. FINAL AND CERTIFIED CLIMATE DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV.
$$
saturated here in e cen florida good fuel for the upcoming afternoon thunderstorm season
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Hey guys...

I'm excited, just got my lifeguard certification and several job offers to start working later this month...

Inclement weather is officially my best friend...

Go Summer Popup Thunderstorms!!!
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning Largo and everyone. Well, I just emptied my rain gauge here in Madeira Beach and we got just a hair shy of 1.20" yesterday with no complaints here. That was the most we've seen in a long time.
good morning, yes we got some great rain yesterday huh..maybe we get some more today also..................HEY GS...a big congrats!!...good luck on getting the Job
Not nice.  Heading to the shaky knees fest this weekend and really don't want to get rained on the whole time...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
wow new GFS giving N GA more rain than before...nice

NAM agrees too
Not a good beach or boating day.
423 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE WELL PAST SUNSET.THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS TODAY.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS AND ON ROADWAYS IN TRADITIONALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AND WILL AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER OR FLOODING FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ACROSS INLAND LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH...WITH MORE OF A NORTHWEST MOTION NORTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AND NORTHEAST ACROSS AREAS SOUTH.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CAPE LATER THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 6-9FT OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER ALL THE WATERS BY TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 3 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF ZONE. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO ROUGH SURF. IF HEADING TO THE BEACH TODAY...CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL BEACH PATROL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS. NEVER ENTER THE ROUGH SURF ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND FLOODING RAINS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.
MOSES
863. VR46L
Lots of moisture in the Northern Gulf

Good Morning Folks..

Day 1


Day 2
6 to 10" last night...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Warning for... 
southern Mobile County in southwest Alabama... 

* until 300 PM CDT Thursday

* a long duration of heavy rainfall has occurred since Wednesday over
southern Mobile County... including locations near bayou le batre and
Dauphin Island... and has caused a general inundation flooding of low 
lying areas as well as a rise in smaller local creeks. Radar estimates 
that many locations within the warning have received 6 to 10 inches of 
rainfall. This will cause flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.
Should showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain re-develop... the risk 
of flash flooding will increase. All interested parties should take 
necessary precautions immediately.

* Locations impacted include... 
Dauphin Island... Coden... 
Belle Fontaine... Bayou La Batre... 
Cluster due south of Dauphin Island appears to have a little rotation on radar.
868. VR46L
.goes13.vis NOLA




they dont need anymore rain up here,guy said last nite they expected 8-12 inches..
870. VR46L
goes13.vis.Pensacola

Quoting FunnelVortex:
\

That blob formed behind yesterday's blob and moved south. Into more favorable conditions...


More favorable conditions? Is there any surface rotation?
Mississippi rivers are all flooding, bad news over there for those folks and its still raining.
Mississippi...........
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BIG BLACK RIVER AT WEST
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 8:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18 FEET BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17 FEET...SEVERAL THOUSAND ACRES OF AGRICULTURAL AND
LOWLAND BECOME INUNDATED.

&&
Big rain off W FL now!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY

* A LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED SINCE WEDNESDAY OVER
SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BAYOU LE BATRE AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND...AND HAS CAUSED A GENERAL INUNDATION FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS AS WELL AS A RISE IN SMALLER LOCAL CREEKS. RADAR ESTIMATES
THAT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING HAVE RECEIVED 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SHOULD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RE-DEVELOP...THE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAUPHIN ISLAND... CODEN...
BELLE FONTAINE... BAYOU LA BATRE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GENERAL INUNDATION FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS SMALLER CREEKS OVERFLOW
WHILE TRYING TO DISCHARGE INTO AREA RIVERS. SLOW STEADY RISES IN
WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND RIVERS.

&&
my guess is Flooding is the big story today and tomorrow...
Good morning! I wish my whole day would be cloud free, but eventually the storms will roll in this evening. Absolutely beautiful out now though! Already 62F.

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


More favorable conditions? Is there any surface rotation?


Not yet anyways.
Good Morning All. Pretty amazing to still see all that moisture around Florida and that the frontal/baroclinic nature of the convection, fueled by the large ULL/Tutt cell, has reached all the way down to Cuba and the Western Caribbean.

Here is the current position of the Tutt cell draped across the central Gulf, where things are quiet, and you can overlay the convective bursts to the leading East edge of the ULL.

Link

If sheer was not as strong as it is right now, development of the blob South of the Yucatan might have been an issue with water temps down there well above 80.
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS TO GO OVER THEIR BANKS. POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
blob of S fl now not big but good rain coming for S FL now
My Tuesday rainfall total was .61", Wednesday 2.72" and it's raining now in Fort Myers.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.


The rain does NOT like us. All of it is east of the N Leewards. As expected, we had two quick showers...

... and the GFS is no longer as aggressive for the next few days.

SUMMARY : this is another bust so far.
Curious as to how much rain fell in Central TX last night, as the NWS clears the radar estimates for whatever reason so fast
From the Paducah, KY NWS Office: Hydrologic Outlook
Quoting FtMyersgal:
My Tuesday rainfall total was .61", Wednesday 2.72" and it's raining now in Fort Myers.
yes we got some great rain up here also, all this is supposed to continue thru saturday..suns breaking thru the clouds here..didnt want to see that happen here..storms might get bad this afternoon and evening..
Since last Saturday for Houston/Galveston


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Since last Saturday for Houston/Galveston


That oughta make ya happy, Rita? No?
When this eases some 30-40 knots something may get a chance ;)



Quoting SouthernIllinois:

That oughta make ya happy, Rita? No?


Very....but can use more :/
Quoting LargoFl:
yes we got some great rain up here also, all this is supposed to continue thru saturday..suns breaking thru the clouds here..didnt want to see that happen here..storms might get bad this afternoon and evening..


That's my forcast too Largo. Supposed to be clearing by Sunday. Right now the rains here are gentle rain. Nothing like yesterday and evening. We will see these rains off and on all day today.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Since last Saturday for Houston/Galveston


Look at that beautiful, possible, rain enhancement downwind of the city.
cant seem to find a rainfall totals for my city..maybe when jedkins comes online he has one..
Quoting LargoFl:
cant seem to find a rainfall totals for my city..maybe when jedkins comes online he has one..
just look at one of the hundreds of PWSs in your county closest to you
Quoting LargoFl:
cant seem to find a rainfall totals for my city..maybe when jedkins comes online he has one..
my area in NW Hills. (Keystone-Odessa) got around .3" yesterday
Is the convection that just came off the African coast the 1st tropical wave?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
my area in NW Hills. (Keystone-Odessa) got around .3" yesterday
..thats good news..im guessing for my area between 1-2 inches total..everything is soaking wet here now which is good news....pinellas is in the severe drought category,hopefully by sunday we will be out of it.
Good morning all!!! Hurricane Season is getting close. I'm excited!!! Can't believe all this late snow in the Dakotas and Colorado!
Quoting stoormfury:
Is the convection that just came off the African coast the 1st tropical wave?


Based on NHC... they don't believe so, but should help bring the ITCZ up in LAT some more.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting ChaseyChasinStorms:
Good morning all!!! Hurricane Season is getting close. I'm excited!!! Can't believe all this late snow in the Dakotas and Colorado!

Morning, Chasey! Very excited, too. It's right around the bend. Hope you're staying dry with all the rain you've been getting!
Wow ... I had to hit the roads for a bit yesterday evening, and I saw some incredibly black, low clouds here in coastal Lee County. No thunder, just rich, black clouds and one greenish looking patch out towards Pine Island.

This morning the froggies are singin' in the rain here in the Cape!

I know this isn't the start of the true rainy season in the sense that Jedkins pointed out last night - to whit: It's not afternoon thundershowers being driven onto SW FL by the Bermuda High ...but, it sure is freakin' awesome!
Quoting LargoFl:

Largo,

Love that graphic! Absolutely love that. Please post later on if you get the chance. Keep them coming, brother!
Good Morning All..
63 degrees with 97%rh and dew at 62..
Winds 4mph from the North..
Cloudy with .19" so far today..
.06 for yesterday..
Not much at all considering Mississippi and Alabama's rains the last 2 days..

Beach looks gloomy again..
The Santa Rosa comissioners yesterday passed an ordinance for recycling bins for the beach..
They are sooo behind the times..

Quoting RitaEvac:
Since last Saturday for Houston/Galveston


I live on the northside of Houston, and I am still watering my yard...only 1/2" fell.