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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Unusually cold spring in Europe and the Southeast U.S. due to the Arctic Oscillation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:52 PM GMT on April 25, 2013

During March 2013, residents of Europe and the Southeast U.S. must have wondered what happened to global warming. Repeated bitter blasts of bitter cold air invaded from the Arctic, bringing one of the coldest and snowiest Marches on record for much of northern Europe. In the U.K., only one March since 1910 was colder (1962), and parts of Eastern Europe had their coldest March since 1952. A series of exceptional snowstorms struck many European locations, including the remarkable blizzard of March 11 - 12, which dumped up to 25 cm (10”) of snow on the Channel Islands of Guernsey and Jersey in the U.K., and in the northern French provinces of Manche and Calvados. The entire Southeast U.S. experienced a top-ten coldest March on record, with several states experiencing a colder month than in January 2013. Despite all these remarkable cold weather events, global temperatures during March 2013 were the 9th warmest since 1880, said NASA. How, then, did such cold extremes occur in a month that was in the top 8% of warmest Marches in Earth's recorded history? The answer lies in the behavior of the jet stream. This band of strong high-altitude winds marks the boundary between cold, polar air and warm, subtropical air. The jet stream, on average, blows west to east. But there are always large ripples in the jet, called planetary waves (or Rossby waves.) In the Northern Hemisphere, cold air from the polar regions spills southward into the U-shaped troughs of these ripples, and warm air is drawn northwards into the upside-down U-shaped ridges. If these ripples attain unusually high amplitude, a large amount of cold polar air will spill southwards into the mid-latitudes, causing unusual cold extremes. This was the case in Europe and the Eastern U.S. in March 2013. These cold extremes were offset by unusually warm conditions where the jet stream bulged northwards--over the Atlantic, the Western U.S., and in China during March 2013. In fact, the amplitude of the ripples in the jet stream reached their most extreme value ever recorded in any March during 2013, as measured by an index called the Arctic Oscillation (AO).


Figure 1. The monthly Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from 1950 - March 2013 shows that three of the six most extreme negative cases have occurred since 2009. Note that all of the six most negative AO indices on record were associated with historic cold waves and blizzards over Europe or the Eastern U.S. Image created using data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Measuring the jet stream's contortions: the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
One measure of how extreme the ripples in the jet stream are is by measuring the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. An index based in this pressure difference is called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When this index is strongly negative, it means that the pressure difference between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is low. This results in a weaker jet stream, allowing it to take large, meandering loops. These loops allow cold air to spill far to the south from the Arctic into the mid-latitudes. A more general index that looks at pressure patterns over the entire Arctic, not just the North Atlantic, is called the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AO and NAO are closely related about 90% of the time. According to a 2010 paper by L'Heureux et al., a strongly negative AO pattern that allows cold air to spill southwards into the mid-latitudes does nothing to the average temperature of the planet. Fluctuations in the jet stream as measured by the AO simply act to redistribute heat. It's kind of like turning off your refrigerator and leaving the refrigerator door open--the cold air from the refrigerator spills out into the room, but is replaced inside the refrigerator by warm room air. No net change in heat occurs. During March 2013, the AO index hit -3.2. Not only was this the most extreme negative March value of the AO since record keeping began in 1950, it was also the sixth lowest AO index ever measured. It was also the first time the AO index had been that extremely negative in a non-winter month (because the circulation patterns are stronger in the winter, we tend to see more extreme values of the AO index in December, January, and February.) This unusual contortion of the jet stream in March 2013 allowed Europe to have exceptional cold weather in a month when the global average temperature was among the warmest 8% of Marches on record. Why did the AO index get so extreme in March 2013? Part of the blame goes to the sudden stratospheric warming event that began in January (wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed post on this event.) Sudden stratospheric warming events tend to push the atmosphere into a more negative AO configuration. Another major factor was the very active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. When the area of increased thunderstorms associated with the MJO is located in the Pacific Ocean, as occurred during much of March 2013, this tends to create negative AO conditions. Finally, wintertime Arctic sea ice loss has been tied to more negative AO patterns, and sea ice was well blow average again during March.


Figure 2. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a pattern of varying pressure and winds over the Northern Hemisphere that can strongly influence mid-latitude weather patterns. When the AO is in its positive phase, jet stream winds are strong and the jet stream tends to blow mostly west to east, with low-amplitude waves (troughs and ridges.) Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold Arctic air to the north and warm subtropical air to the south, cold air stays bottled up in the Arctic. When the AO is in its negative phase, the winds of the jet stream slow down, allowing the jet to take on more wavy pattern with high-amplitude troughs and ridges. High amplitude troughs typically set up over the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe during negative AO episodes, allowing cold air to spill southwards in those regions and create unusually cold weather.

Are jet stream patterns getting more extreme?
We've had some wildly variable jet stream patterns in recent years in the Northern Hemisphere. Just last year, we had a strongly positive AO in March, when our ridiculous "Summer in March" heat wave brought the warmest March on record to the U.S. The first day of spring in Chicago, IL on March 20, 2013 had a high temperature of just 25°F--a 60 degree difference from last year's high of 85°F on March 20! During the past five years, we've set new monthly records for extreme negative AO index for six of the twelve months of the year:

-4.3: February 2010
-3.4: December 2009
-3.2: March 2013
-1.5: October 2009, 2012
-1.4: June 2009
-1.4: July 2009

Note that four of these months with an extremely negative AO occurred in one year--2009. This unusual event was "unprecedented in the 60-year record", according to L'Heureux et al. (2010.) Despite the unusually large negative AO in 2009, the authors found that the AO index between 1950 - 2009 had actually trended to be more positive, in both the winter and annual mean. This is in agreement with what many climate models predict: the AO index should get increasingly positive, due to increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, since this tends to make the stratosphere cool and increase the strength of high altitude winds over the Arctic. However, a number of papers have been published since 2009 theorizing that the record loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years may be significantly altering Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns (I list eleven of these papers below.) Many of these studies show a link between Arctic sea ice loss and an increasingly negative AO and NAO index in winter. Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers has authored several of these papers, and wrote a very readable explanation of the theory linking Arctic sea ice loss to extreme weather in the mid-latitudes for our Earth Day 2013 microsite. Her post was called, "The Changing Face of Mother Nature." The most recent technical paper connecting Arctic sea ice loss to extreme weather was a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss". The paper argued that unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years. The scientists found a mathematical relationship between wintertime Arctic sea ice loss and the increase in unusual jet stream patterns capable of bringing cold, snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia, typical of what one sees during a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation. They theorized that sea ice loss in the Arctic promotes more evaporation, resulting in earlier snowfall in Siberia and other Arctic lands. The earlier snow insulates the soil, allowing the land to cool more rapidly. This results in a southwards shift of the jet stream and builds higher atmospheric pressures farther to the south, which increases the odds of cold spells and blocking high pressure systems that can cause extended periods of unusually cold and snowy weather in the mid-latitudes. The research linking climate change impacts in the Arctic to more extreme jet stream patterns is still very new, and we need several more years of data and additional research before we can be confident that this is occurring. But if the new research is correct, the crazy winter weather we've been seeing since 2009 may be the new normal in a world with rapid warming occurring in the Arctic.


Video 1. Using jet stream animations created by NOAA's Visualiation Laboratory, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers explains why the jet stream exists, and how the warming of the Arctic may be changing it.

Related posts
"The Changing Face of Mother Nature" by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, April 22, 2013.
Why was the start to spring 2013 so cold? by the UK Met Office, April 2013.
Extreme jet stream causing record warmth in the east, record cold in the west (January 2013)
Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns (April 2012)
Our extreme weather: Arctic changes to blame? (December 2011)
Florida shivers; Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern is back (December 2010)
Jet stream moved northwards 270 miles in 22 years; climate change to blame? (June 2008)
Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (March 2012)
From Heat Wave to Snowstorms, March Goes to Extremes by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central (March 2013)

References
L'Heureux, M., A. Butler, B. Jha, A. Kumar, and W. Wang (2010), Unusual extremes in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during 2009, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10704, doi:10.1029/2010GL043338.

Papers published since 2009 that link Arctic sea ice loss to an increase in negative AO or NAO conditions
Deser, C., R. Tomas, M. Alexander, and D. Lawrence (2010), "The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late 21st century," J. Clim., 23, 333–351, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1.

Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009, "Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent," Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009, "Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters," Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), "Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation", Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010, "Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice," Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010, "A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents," J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), "Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10," Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Seierstad, I. A., and J. Bader (2009), "Impact of a projected future Arctic Sea Ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO," Clim. Dyn., 33, 937-943, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0463-x.

Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss," Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Extreme Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



2.8
502. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
14 years since we been hit by a hurricane in Puerto Rico... and no Irene don't count!


Shh... we don't need one. XD
137 seminolesfan: Lets put our sensing station real close to one of the most active volcanoes; Kilauea.
139 seminolesfan: "It's become the landmark of open-vent volcanoes," said Jim Kauahikaua, scientist-in-charge at the U.S Geological Survey's Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO), sited at Kilauea's summit. "One of the remarkable things about Pu'u 'O'o has been the virtual stream of lava from the mantle to our toes for 30 years," he told OurAmazingPlanet.

Is Barrow,Alaska far enough away from Kilauea,Hawaii for you?

Thanks, Skyepony, for finding and posting NOAA's carbon (and methane) site.
S.C. Earthquake Guide wins public information award

April 24, 2013
12:25 pm

WASHINGTON – The National Association of Government Communicators awarded the South Carolina Emergency Management Division its prestigious 2013 Blue Pencil & Gold Screen Award.

SCEMD received this national recognition for the South Carolina Earthquake Guide, a brochure that contains information on what to do before, during and after one of South Carolina’s greatest natural vulnerabilities.
"...one of South Carolina’s greatest natural vulnerabilities"???
I'd suspect tripping while backing away from skunks 'd be more likely to cause people injury.
Quoting Walshy:


2.8
That's almost enough to make ripples in your cup of coffee.
Call out climate deniers in Congress

The science on climate change is clear.

But many members of Congress are in complete denial, and they're standing in the way of progress.

We need to call them out.

Watch this embarrassing video—and join the fight to get serious on climate change:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:37 PM EST April 26 2013
============================================

A trough lies over the eastern Coral Sea area, with a weak embedded low over the Solomon Sea. This feature is likely to move slowly to the west southwest over the next few days with some development likely.

The system is likely to move into the northwest Coral Sea early next week and increase winds and rain about the eastern Cape York Peninsula coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Quoting Xandra:
Call out climate deniers in Congress

The science on climate change is clear.

But many members of Congress are in complete denial, and they're standing in the way of progress.

We need to call them out.

Watch this embarrassing video—and join the fight to get serious on climate change:



Embarrasing, indeed. "We all exhale CO2". Breathtaking ignorance.

The speaker at the end who called global warming a 'hoax' was probably well paid.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:37 PM EST April 26 2013
============================================

A trough lies over the eastern Coral Sea area, with a weak embedded low over the Solomon Sea. This feature is likely to move slowly to the west southwest over the next few days with some development likely.

The system is likely to move into the northwest Coral Sea early next week and increase winds and rain about the eastern Cape York Peninsula coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High


I ain't seeing it on the latest synoptic charts for the next 4 days. Maybe the 1008mb low off Cape York.



And all I see is mess, nothing organizing.


Loop
Good Morning Folks..Evening Aussie............
7-day Tampa Bay area..........................
Not sure if this was posted,,, and yes it;s a few days old.

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 23 April 2013

SPCZ activity increases without strong MJO

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) experienced an increase in convective activity this week stretching from the east end of the Solomon Islands across Samoa to the Cook Islands. Without the influence of a strong MJO or other tropical influences, scrappy pockets of convective activity have formed across the Maritime Continent and into the West Pacific along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There is also an active low in the central Indian Ocean that may be associated with a weak Equatorial Rossby wave, a westward-moving wave of tropical weather.
With little guidance from major tropical climate drivers, short-term weather models suggest this week may see tropical convection across Papua New Guinea and in the south west Pacific Ocean, including the development of a tropical low within the SPCZ.
Most international models indicate that the MJO is expected to remain weak for another fortnight before reforming over the Indian Ocean in mid-May.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.

State of ENSO: neutral

The Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral with the latest sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO3.4 region at 0.1 C. The latest 30 day SOI to the 21st of April is 6.9.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence upon Australia%u2019s climate from December through to April. As the IOD influence increases, a neutral IOD is most likely for the coming months. By September, most models maintain neutral conditions, although some forecast models indicate the chance of a negative IOD.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
Hey Max... Someone just posted your image on his social network account.

Link

Look familiar??
Good evening Aussie!

Good morning Largo, Yonz, and Trunk. Hey, where's Aislinnpaps this morning.. I'm hungry!
hmmm, that embed didn't work, guess you will have to visit the link.

How Climate Change is Destroying the Earth
Even tho I'm not posting much lately, I'm always lurking. G'mornin' folks.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands this weekend but no big rain event is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 AM AST FRI APR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE
FILLING AND BEING REPLACED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC AND HIGH ZONAL
FLOW BY SUNDAY. INDUCED LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE
UNITED STATES TODAY...THEN ENTERS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AT LEAST INTO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PREVIOUS TJSJ 2/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE
OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WITH AND SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NOW
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS. THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS LATEST BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS...
ALL SUGGEST A CONTINUED DRYING TREND WITH DECREASING PWAT VALUES
WITH LESSER MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH INITIALIZED WELL SHOWED DECREASING PWAT VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THEREFORE...FOR TODAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TO ALLOW FOR BRIEF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. DUE TO THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO
RICO SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THE SHOWERS IF ANY AT ALL WILL
BE OF SHORT DURATION. OVER THE WEEKEND...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR THE
DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AN POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL 26/18Z. AFTER 26/18Z...SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND TJPS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FM THE SFC-FL050.
A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 50-65KT BTW FL350-FL400 WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6-7 FOOT IN ENE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
PEAKING TO NEAR 8 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE GO IN EFFECT TODAY.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 10
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 20 20 10
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Even tho I'm not posting much lately, I'm always lurking. G'mornin' folks.


Good morning Doug! Was thinking about you earlier in the week when I was in Tallahassee to testify before the Environmental Regulation Commitee. I want to visit P-cola somethin' awful, and I was close, but with no time. arggg
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 60 degrees this morning as I watered the flowers this morning. A high of 78 expected later today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Bacon and eggs, variety of cold cereal, bananas and milk, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good evening Aussie!

Good morning Largo, Yonz, and Trunk. Hey, where's Aislinnpaps this morning.. I'm hungry!


Morning! Decided to start watering the new flower garden in the mornings, but kept hitting the snooze button today. SOOOOO glad it's Friday!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 60 degrees this morning as I watered the flowers this morning. A high of 78 expected later today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Bacon and eggs, variety of cold cereal, bananas and milk, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy


mmm mmm!
Good morning. The 0z Euro was interesting last night. Here's one week out:



8 days:



9 days:



Happy Friday :)
Good Morning... is almost that time of the year of sleepless nights. :)
Miami NWS Disco

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE NATION ON THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THURSDAY
COULD BE A WET AND ACTIVE DAY IF THIS PATTERN PANS OUT.
Good Mornin yall. When do you think we'll have our first storm, and where. Personally I'd say the second or third week of May in the Yucatan Channel.
MLB DISCUSSION:

TUE-FRI...MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET AND
PERHAPS UNSETTLED. AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM H50 TROUGH WILL KICK
ITS POS TILT PREDECESSOR SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX AND FL. SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THE RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE AS THE RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT AND ORGANIZATION OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH (CUTOFF LOW?) THAT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE 26/00Z GFS IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES
COMPARED TO THE NEW ECM. THE LATTER`S SOLUTION IS OBVIOUSLY MUCH
MORE OMINOUS FOR THE FL EAST COAST...AS IT SHOWS A H50 CUTOFF OVHD
ABOUT 60M DEEPER...ALONG WITH A MUCH STRONGER (SUB-1000MB) SURFACE
LOW CENTER WHICH DROPS SSE RIGHT ALONG THE FL EAST COAST. THIS SOLN
WOULD BATTER THE NE FL COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRETY OF THE FL
ATLC COAST WITH VERY STRONG N-NE FLOW FRI THROUGH SAT.

ESPECIALLY WORRISOME IS THE FACT THAT THE ECM HAS SHOWN A GENERAL
SOLUTION OF STRONGER SRN STREAM ENERGY (ALBEIT NOT QUITE TO THIS
EXTENT) FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW...AND IT USUALLY PERFORMS QUITE
WELL OVER THE CONUS. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE`LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE
EYE ON HOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR NOW...HAVE SIDED WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS
CONTINUED INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THU.
Everyone have a fantastic Friday! Aussie, have a fantastic Saturday!
Euro again is lashing FL. Very powerful system on the 0Z Euro.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Good Mornin yall. When do you think we'll have our first storm, and where. Personally I'd say the second or third week of May in the Yucatan Channel.


Could be next week. NWS Melbourne seems to think a strong STS is likely off FL's east coast.

SST's off the Florida coast are near 80 now. Gonna get interesting next week.

0Z CMC had the subtropical storm at the same time:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
0Z CMC had the subtropical storm at the same time:



Looks like the models just need to nail the placement down of this potential system. I will say though the Euro has been very consistant now for 2 days with showing a storm moving over FL and developing off the SE US eventually into a warm core at 240 hrs.

Link

Good morning. I just saw this (Crown Weather) on Facebook and knew you guys would be on to it already! :)
538. JRRP
,
Time to dust off the Hurricane Chart!

Quoting StormTrackerScott:

Scott!

Morning, Guy. Things heating up, indeed. Check out the total precipitation amounts from the 06Z GFS out to 384 Hours...

Took some heat from some yesterday morning when I was posting the different model runs. No one seems to wanna say anything now.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Time to dust off the Hurricane Chart!


Yeppers!
Quoting JRRP:


Hi my friend. Yes,time is getting closer and closer to begin watching that area to see when the first waves will be out there.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Took some heat from some yesterday morning when I was posting the different model runs. No one seems to wanna say anything now.

Nope. They are too busy wiping egg off their faces.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Took some heat from some yesterday morning when I was posting the different model runs. No one seems to wanna say anything now.


Good job Scott:)
Rain beginning to move into Southern Illinois...

Quoting ncstorm:


Good job Scott:)


Can never write the Euro off as it is our best performing model right now with that said it still doesn't mean it will verify as the models can change again. I've seen systems vanish 5 days out. However no one can write off the possibility of development next week as conditions are favorable for Sub Tropical development near FL. Will it happen no one knows yet but some on here can't say that the potential doesn't exist when obviously it does per the Euro.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Could be next week. NWS Melbourne seems to think a strong STS is likely off FL's east coast.



Link to NWS MLB saying anything about a STS?
Quoting icmoore:
Link

Good morning. I just saw this (Crown Weather) on Facebook and knew you guys would be on to it already! :)


Hoping to do some fishing in your neck of the woods next weekend. Love Anna Maria island. I usually stay at the Bongalow Beach Resort there.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link to NWS MLB saying anything about a STS?


Local news here in Orlando is saying this morning that the NWS says there is a chance of this happening if the Euro verifies and they also say the GFS has nothing just general thunderstorms. So I guess we wait and see.
this event keeps looking heavier and heavier


turn on the flood machines



chance of rain everday through 7 days as well
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Took some heat from some yesterday morning when I was posting the different model runs. No one seems to wanna say anything now.
aw dont worry about heat, your doing ok.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
this event keeps looking heavier and heavier


turn on the flood machines


TWC is saying Flooding could occur across North GA as model guidance is spitting out several inches of rain in your area.
A probable STS off Florida coast being portrayed by the ECMWF and CMC. We just need them to be consistent through the next few days.
Quoting LargoFl:
aw dont worry about heat, your doing ok.


Rain or shine I'm fishing next weekend at Anna Maria Island.
GFS shows 4 day totals pushing 3+ inches and an inch or two after that as well!!

Quoting CybrTeddy:
A probable STS off Florida coast being portrayed by the ECMWF and CMC. We just need them to be consistent through the next few days.


Also need the GFS to latch on.
this could be what the models are picking up on..a front
Hope this pans out, we need rain here...........
well no luck for me just scattered showers Maybe....
UPPER TROUGH ADVERTISED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD IMPART
FAVORABLE LIFT AND SHEAR ON THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELL MODES IN THE BOUNDARIES VICINITY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WITH INSTABILITY NOW LIKELY PEAKING
TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG. CIPS ANALOGS OF THE SETUP FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OUR REGION SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL GREATER THAN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ALONE. ALTHOUGH SOME
ANALOGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY...FOR THIS SPECIFIC
SYSTEM THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WEAK AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TOO LOW TO FOCUS MUCH ON THAT RISK.
INSTEAD...BETTER RISKS ARE FROM LARGE HAIL...HEAVY FOCUSED
RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...BUT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT
HEAVY RAIN) SHOULD DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. /BB/


jackson ms
Good Morning All..
Getting rain in the Mid-West this am..

Springfield, MO (KSGF) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Topeka, KS (KTWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



East coast NWS is warning about abnormal high tides
59 degrees 53%rh (Rather low) winds a steady 7 from NNE..

Gotta like the beach this am with such low rh values..
Volleyball anyone?

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hoping to do some fishing in your neck of the woods next weekend. Love Anna Maria island. I usually stay at the Bongalow Beach Resort there.


It is beautiful over here on the west coast. We've only lived here about a year and a half and love it although hurricane season can cause some serious nail biting now. Hope your fishing trip isn't a wash out :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A probable STS off Florida coast being portrayed by the ECMWF and CMC. We just need them to be consistent through the next few days.


At how many hours?
306. aspectre
Quoting aspectre:
49 Neapolitan: "13,950 peer-reviewed climate articles, 1991-2012: 24 reject global warming"

I find myself wondering how many of those 24 which downplay or naysay global warming:
1) Have been withdrawn by their authors after being published then strongly rejected by peers not associated with the publishers' own editorial peer-review contractors?
2) Have been published in fossil-fuel industry-sponsored journals with titles similar to GeophysicalChemistry reviewed by peers consisting of oil geologists/etc rather than meteorologists and climatologists?
3) Or have been "self-published" in a manner of speaking? There's an "academic publishing" outfit or two which sends notices of "Your manuscript has been accepted...Please send eg $500 if you wish to have it published" to darn near any submitter with a college degree.
Interestingly, those publications are not sent out free to members of any professional association. They are sent to subscribers only.
Very few of them are physically present on the shelves of most college/university libraries.
Fewer still are available on-line through college/university library subscription services, through which articles are normally free to students and staff.
Even those few which are available online through college/university services usually tend to run the potential reader into a pay-wall sufficiently costly to discourage review by all but the most tenacious of non-publisher peers.


That is a great idea for a history of science term paper! Drs. Masters and Rood...do you have a student needing a idea?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
SST's off the Florida coast are near 80 now. Gonna get interesting next week.



Morning Scott. The SST's off Fort Myers Beach are 81° as of yesterday
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Morning Scott. The SST's off Fort Myers Beach are 81° as of yesterday

Whoa! That's bath water. Time to hit the beach. Yah!!!
Newswise — TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Researchers at Florida State University have developed a new metric to measure seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity that focuses on the size of storms in addition to the duration and intensity, a measure that may prove important when considering a hurricane’s potential for death and destruction.
Just ask the survivors of Hurricane Sandy.
The 2012 hurricane was only a Category 2 storm on the often referenced Saffir-Simpson scale when it became the largest hurricane on record, killing 285 people in its path in seven different countries and becoming the second costliest in U.S. history. Likewise, Hurricane Katrina was a weaker storm than 1969’s Camille but caused much more destruction even though the two hurricanes followed essentially the same path.
The new metric, called Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE), builds on the concept of Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) developed in 2007 to more accurately measure the destructive potential of a storm. IKE involves using kinetic energy scales with the surface stress that forces storm surge and waves and the horizontal wind loads specified by the American Society of Civil Engineers. TIKE expands the concept by accumulating IKE over the lifespan of a tropical cyclone and over all named tropical cyclones in the hurricane season.
“Representing the activity of an Atlantic hurricane season by a number is a very difficult task,” said Vasu Misra, an associate professor of meteorology in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and FSU’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS). “TIKE gives a succinct picture by taking into account the number of tropical cyclones in the season, the duration of each tropical cyclone and the time history of the wind force over a large area surrounding each tropical cyclone. This makes TIKE much more reliable as an objective measure of the seasonal activity of the Atlantic hurricanes than existing metrics.”
Misra developed TIKE through a collaboration with Steven DiNapoli, a former COAPS data analyst, and Mark Powell, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration atmospheric scientist currently stationed at COAPS who created IKE with a colleague six years ago. Their paper, “The Track Integrated Kinetic Energy of the Atlantic Tropical Cyclones,” was published in the American Meteorological Society’s Monthly Weather Review.
Misra, DiNapoli and Powell calculated TIKE for each hurricane season, including all named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic from 1990 through 2011, and found larger TIKE values during La Niña conditions and warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature conditions. The information will help them in developing a model that can predict TIKE for an entire season — a prediction that could help emergency managers, businesses and residents with preparedness.
“I look forward to the global climate models improving enough to allow skillful predictions of storm size, which will help us predict TIKE for an upcoming season,” Powell said.
TIKE is not intended as an alternative to existing metrics but as a complimentary tool, the researchers said.
The need for more information about the potential for destruction was brought home during the 2012 season. The Integrated Kinetic Energy calculation that TIKE is based on was more than 300 terajoules for Hurricane Sandy. The figure, which represents units of energy, was the largest IKE measurement for any hurricane between 1990 and 2006.
“That means that Sandy actually had more wind forcing over a large area than Hurricane Katrina,” Misra said. “If the public was aware that this number was so high, which is an indication of the large potential for damage from storm surge and waves, some of them might have been able to make better life- and property-saving decisions.”
###
This research was supported by grants from NOAA, the Southeast Ecological Science Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
This system forecasted by the CMC and EURO next week of the coast of Florida really seems like a blessing. The southern 2/3's of the state need the water SO BAD and what better system scenario to bring it than a harmless system lingering off the coast. Bring it!
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Getting rain in the Mid-West this am..

Springfield, MO (KSGF) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Topeka, KS (KTWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)




Morning, PCola. Can always count on you to follow the rain and dial up the Nexrad images. Some nice rainfall happenin' in the Heartland...



Large High Pressure removed from the normal location
Latest NAM (06Z) run showing precipitation totals out to 84 hours. Not too shabby.

click for larger image
Quoting Grothar:


Is that model still going to replace the GFS in the future?
Wow, people must be really pumped up for hurricane season if they are wishcasting a subtrop off of Florida.

I'm actually looking at it too...
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Wow, people must be really pumped up for hurricane season if they are wishcasting a subtrop off of Florida.

I'm actually looking at it too...

We're all wishcasting the rain for Florida since it's been so darn dry, but I know what you're getting at! :)
I have PROM that night!
Quoting Grothar:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I have PROM that night!

Have Fun!
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

We're all wishcasting the rain for Florida since it's been so darn dry, but I know what you're getting at! :)


Subtropical, Tropical, or Extratropical, you need a low off of the coast right now.
The latest GFS (06Z) is also showing some heavy rainfall amounts for much of the Tennessee Valley down through the Southeastern U.S. into the Carolinas.

Below is the total precipitation amounts from the 06Z GFS out to 96 Hours.

click image to enlarge
From AccuWeather for WPB!! for May 4 Gusts up to 50MPH!
NW 27 mph
Gusts: 48 mph
Very windy; mainly cloudy with a couple of showers, mainly early in the day
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Subtropical, Tropical, or Extratropical, you need a low off of the coast right now.

Absolutely.
Currently at

Marion Regional (KMWA):

Mostly Cloudy

52 F

11 C

Humidity 58%
Wind Speed SE 6 mph
Barometer 30.38 in
Dewpoint 37 F (3 C)
Visibility 20.00 mi
Wind Chill 50 F (10 C)

Last Update on 26 Apr 7:52 am CDT
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Wow, people must be really pumped up for hurricane season if they are wishcasting a subtrop off of Florida.

I'm actually looking at it too...


We still need rain bad. This would help our drought significantly.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


We still need rain bad. This would help our drought significantly.



Especially From Tampa Bay on into Orlando and throughout the citrus country...

The panhandle has actually been in pretty good shape. I'm sure PensacolaDoug and PCola57 aren't complaining like Folks downstate are...

:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I have PROM that night!


Wear a raincoat.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Is that model still going to replace the GFS in the future?


Still experimental, but it looks like it. It is still posted as GSI-GFS model.
Below is a upper-level (250 MB Heights) shear profile about the same time the potential STS is forecasted to be near the east coast of Florida. Note this is the GFS which currently is not on board with the development of an tropical or sub-tropical entity as of now. Consequently, that explains the rather hostile upper-level environment it is suggesting out to 228 hours. Just thought I'd post FWIW. Maybe it's seeing something the other two models--the CMC & EURO--are not.

click for larger image
We need rain here In D.C.The thunderstorms never came through on Tuesday.We need the pollen washed out of the air.I had a thin sheet on my car this morning.Disgusting.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I have PROM that night!


Make sure you wear your raincoat.. :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
We need rain here In D.C.The thunderstorms never came through on Tuesday.We need the pollen washed out of the air.I had a thin sheet on my car this morning.Disgusting.

You might be in luck, but you may have to wait a few more days. The GFS is pretty certain about you receiving at least an inch further out in the 5 day (120 Hour) outlook.
Quoting Grothar:


Wear a raincoat.


It is Prom night after all...

Gro, good to see you're still kicking and screaming!
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

You might be in luck, but you may have to wait a few more days. The GFS is pretty certain about you receiving at least an inch further out in the 5 day (120 Hour) outlook.
I'm taking what we can get.The dry pollen has triggered my allergies and when they get really server like they are now my asthma.So I'm leaving for the Doc's office in a few.
606. ARiot
For all of us in the TN Valley, another 1.5 to 2 inches of rain likely in the next 48 or so hours.

Remind your buds not to drive through the water.

Keep the kids away from the creeks.

Enjoy the above average rainfall totals!
FOR LATE WEEK...THE GFS/EURO CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE ISSUE IS TIMING AS THE GFS IS
FASTER AND HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY ON THU WHILE THE
SLOWER EURO HAS THE FRONT THU NGT. THERE IS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE
FASTER GFS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALONG WITH THE EURO ENSEMBLE. I
WANT TO ADD THAT BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE INDICATING QUITE THE COLD
AIRMASS FOR FRI/SAT. THE LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES ARE IN THE -4 TO
-5 SIGMA RANGE! AGAIN...IF THIS VERIFIES EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND LIKELY SEVERAL RECORD LOWS BEING SMASHED.
AT THIS
TIME...I DID TREND COLDER FOR FRIDAY.

jackson ms

Miami-Dade County
1
Coastal Flood Statement
Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Along Bay Side Of South Beach Through The Weekend
Coastal Flooding...Water Levels Are Running Around Half Of A Foot Above Normal And May Lead To Minor Street Flooding Around The Normal High Tide Cycles Along The Bay Side Of South Beach In The Typically Flood Prone Areas Extending North From 5Th Street.
Timing...Around High Tide...Which Are Scheduled Early This Morning Around Daybreak And Again This Evening Around Sunset.
Impacts...Standing Water On Roads Along The Bay Side Of South Beach Extending North From 5Th Street. Standing Water Could Linger On Streets A Few Hours Past High Tide And Lead To Partial Road Closures. Precautionary/Preparedness Actions... Do Not Drive Your Vehicle Into Areas Where The Water Covers The Roadway!
look how much the gulf water has warmed in just a few days..
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

COASTAL FLOODING...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting KeysieLife:


It is Prom night after all...

Gro, good to see you're still kicking and screaming!


Hey, we haven't seen you in a long time.
This is my first post of 2013, good to see everyone

;-)
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is my first post of 2013, good to see everyone

;-)


wrong handle?
I'm finally glad to see the pine pollen wrapping up. What a crappy annual occurance that is! Was going to open the pool this weekend, but looking like a deluge on the way Saturday through next week here in Central Savannah River area so maybe postpone one more week.
Off topic, but I thought this was something that might interest a few of the bloggers on here.

I read an article in the UK Guardian newspaper this morning, by a dsillusioned medical researcher who has come to the conclusion that 'SCIENCE SUCKS', because she can only get very short term contract work, has to keep moving around the country to find it, and can't get funding for her specialist line of research, because there's 'only' a million people who suffer from it. I presume that's globally. The article was titled 'I Am A Research Scientist, And That's Why I Drink'.

Anyway, I'm a bit of a medical research geek myself, and completed a blog on disease causation back in 2010. I post links to it occasionally on the comments sections of relevant medical articles in online newspapers. Usually, I'm lucky if I get half a dozen visits.

I posted the link on the comments section of the above article this morning UK time. About 5 hours later, I've had 100 visits. Here's the breakdown.

UK 73
Germany 4
Spain 3
France 3
Finland 2
Japan 2
USA 2
Ireland 2
Australia 2
Canada 1
Holland 1
Sweden 1
South Korea 1
Austria 1
South Africa 1
Switzerland 1
Wrong handle, uh oh.
620. VR46L
Lots of moisture about

Hello Folks


FLZ173-280600-
/O.NEW.KMFL.CF.S.0001.130426T0753Z-130428T0600Z/
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
353 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG BAY SIDE OF SOUTH
BEACH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

* COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING AROUND HALF OF A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY LEAD TO MINOR STREET FLOODING AROUND
THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF SOUTH BEACH IN
THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS EXTENDING NORTH FROM 5TH STREET.

* TIMING...AROUND HIGH TIDE...WHICH ARE SCHEDULED EARLY THIS
MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND AGAIN THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.

* IMPACTS...STANDING WATER ON ROADS ALONG THE BAY SIDE OF SOUTH
BEACH EXTENDING NORTH FROM 5TH STREET. STANDING WATER COULD
LINGER ON STREETS A FEW HOURS PAST HIGH TIDE AND LEAD TO PARTIAL
ROAD CLOSURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY!

$$
622. VR46L
Africa Vapour Imagery

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
624. VR46L
Sweet looking storm in central atlantic

Quoting Grothar:


Wear a raincoat.


first again... and I "thought" I had you this time.... you ARE the Master.
627. VR46L
The SST low is showing @ WPC day 7

Quoting SouthernIllinois:
The latest GFS (06Z) is also showing some heavy rainfall amounts for much of the Tennessee Valley down through the Southeastern U.S. into the Carolinas.

Below is the total precipitation amounts from the 06Z GFS out to 96 Hours.

click image to enlarge


Good morning everyone...

I agree with you on this, regardless of development (which I don't expect), this system is a big rainfall maker.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Good morning everyone...

I agree with you on this, regardless of development (which I don't expect), this system is a big rainfall maker.

Indeed. I will admit I would like to see a bit more consistency with the CMC & EURO and would also like the GFS to begin latching on. But it's a relatively long way away yet so much can change. I will say I am rooting for the rain from this system. There's no doubt about that!



NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

This morning, NHC hurricane specialists Stacy Stewart, Todd Kimberlain and Eric Blake are removing the names, tracks and statistics of the 2012 hurricane season from the large hurricane track map in the NHC operations area. Once done, the names will go up for the 2013 season, which begins in just five weeks.
Do you have your hurricane plan yet?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hmm looks like we're going to start hurricane season 2013 like we did back in 2007

Subtropical Storm Andrea 2007 (first half of may)

(from wiki.)

Subtropical Storm Andrea 2013 (first half of may)


(from Crown Weather Services)
This can possibly happen.