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Damaging major flooding in Illinois as Mississippi River crests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on April 23, 2013

The mighty Mississippi River has surged to damaging major flood heights along a 200-mile stretch in western Illinois just north of St. Louis, Missouri. “We have seen some of the worst flooding damage to neighborhoods and homes across our state in Illinois history,” Governor Quinn said on Monday, and he declared 44 counties disaster areas. Missouri Governor Jay Nixon declared a state of emergency after flash flooding hit many areas of his state. The river has been closed to barge traffic along a 15-mile stretch near St. Louis since Saturday, when 114 barges broke loose from a fleeting area. Eleven barges containing coal sank. Approximately twelve locks on the Mississippi and Illinois rivers have been closed to shipping due to high water. The Mississippi River peaked at top-five flood heights in recorded history Sunday through Tuesday along the 200-mile section north of St. Louis, but is now falling. The flood crest has yet to come from St. Louis southwards, where the river will stay near crest for multiple days, due to 0.5 - 1.0" of rain expected to fall over most of Illinois, Missouri, and Indiana on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the floods will not be as significant, ranking near the 10th highest floods on record near St. Louis. Flood records along the Mississippi extend back in time to the 1840s to 1940s, depending upon the location.


Figure 1. Thursday, April 18, 2013: Aerial photo provided by the U.S. Coast Guard shows the dam in Marseilles, Ill., after seven barges broke free from a tow and came to rest against the dam. (AP Photo/Courtesy of the U.S. Coast Guard, Petty Officer 3rd Class John Schleicher.)

Record flooding ends in Illinois and Michigan
The National Weather Service recognizes four types of flooding: minor, moderate, major, and record. Major flooding is capable of causing significant damage, and moderate and minor flooding generally only cause isolated damage. Record flooding, of course, can cause record damage, and we had at least nineteen river gauges report record flooding during the April 2013 flood event. The record flooding has ended, and no more record flooding is expected this week. The record floods, as compiled by Dr. Greg Forbes of TWC:

Illinois River: at Peoria, IL; Henry IL; Morris IL; Ottawa IL; and LaSalle IL
Grand River at Comstock Park, MI
Rock River at Moline IL and Byron, IL (short record at the latter)
LaMoine River at Ripley, IL and Colmar, IL
Fox River at McHenry Lock and Dam, IL and Algonquin Tailwater, IL
Des Plaines River at Des Plaines and Riverside IL
Vermilion River at Leonore, IL
East Branch DuPage River at Bolingbrook, IL
Spoon River at Seville, IL
English River at Kalona, IA
North Branch Chicago River in Chicago, IL 


Figure 2. Holy carp! A smallmouth bass checks out the interior of an office building in Riverfront Plaza, which was flooded by the Grand River in downtown Grand Rapids, MI, on Saturday, April 21, 2013. The Grand Rapids Public Museum is in the background. The picture was taken by Lynn Clay, director of network office supervision at Northwestern Mutual Financial Network in Grand Rapids. According to an interview with MLive.com, she was simply trying to take a photo of the flood when the fish swam into the frame. She didn’t even realize it until she saw the image later. The 110-year-old building, despite some leaking and soggy bottom level carpeting, survived the flooding in great shape, according to facilities staff.


Figure 3. Office building in Grand Rapids, Michigan where the fish photo was taken, as seen on Saturday, April 21, 2013. Image credit: GRNow.com. According to this thread on Facebook, the office building was built with aquarium glass.

More major Midwest spring flooding expected next week
A second round of major Midwest flooding is expected the last week of April and into early May, when the heavy snowpack in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is expected to melt significantly, unleashing the equivalent of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall into the watersheds of the Red River of the North, Mississippi River, and Missouri River. Of particular concern is the flooding expected on the Red River of the North near Fargo, North Dakota, where flood heights will likely be among the top five in recorded history. Fortunately, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows only one significant rain-making storm affecting the region April 25 - May 7--a cold front that may produce about 0.5" of precipitation around April 30.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt summarized some of the rainfall and flooding records from the epic storm April 15 - 20 storm in his Sunday post.

Earth Week 2013
The general public think less than half of climate scientists agree that humans are causing global warming. The reality is 97%. Dr. John Cook, Climate Change Communication Fellow for the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, explains the challenges of climate science communication in his contribution to our Earth Day 2013 microsite, "Closing the Consensus Gap on Climate Change."

Jeff Masters
I think the drought is over
I think the drought is over
Wabash River now cresting in Terre Haute at 27.4 feet! This is the 7th highest level ever recorded. It's the highest in 55 years going back to 1958 for the last time it was higher than this.
River has come up alot in 24hrs
River has come up alot in 24hrs
2' 3
Flooded Bridge
Flooded Bridge
Kishwaukee River flooding in Praire Park.

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.Talk about opposites.
Thanks Dr Masters.
Thanks Doc,I guess further down the mighty Mississippi will see their levels come up later in the month.
Thanks Dr. Masters; The record flooding has ended, and no more record flooding is expected this week. The record floods, as compiled by Dr. Greg Forbes of TWC:

Dr. Forbes; my third favorite weather person after Dr. Avila with NHC and You............
Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
That is interesting that the office building in Grand Rapids was built with aquarium glass..
Hopefully all the flooding will be minor..
I would hate to be the man in charge at the barge fleeting facility..
114 barges..Wow..
Thats alot of cargo and probably worth quite a bit as well..
I wonder about the pollution it has/will cause..
Is there a website that tracks and updates on the pollution??
Thanks again..
Thanks for the post and links, Dr. M.

I'm tired of being a 97%'er. I want to be one of the 3% who believe everything is just fine and we can't do anything about it so don't even try. Let's develop the floodplain and if the water supply runs dry, either move or buy bottled water. Yeah, that is it! Lets rebuild all these flooded buildings right where they are, just as they are. That will make more jobs and everybody will be happy. Till the next time.

So we have gone from record drought to record flood in "record" time. What are the chances we are dry again by August?
P.S.
Will all that coal on the river bottom, carbon filter the river like it does in my aquarium? Could this be possibly be good in some way?
Quoting 47n91w:


Just glancing at CoCoRaHS reports and it looks like the south side of the Twin Cities had a snow-to-liquid ratio of 5.5:1. St. Paul had 8:1. And the northwest side had closer to 10:1. Looks like the Bloomington area was hit by the slush while Brooklyn Park was cooler and had less-packy snow.

i'm across the river from Bloomington, would explain it.. thanks for the info!!
and thanks for the new blog Dr. M.. so much precip, and the next big melt begins..
thanks Doc !!
Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks for the post and links, Dr. M.I'm tired of being a 97%'er.
That's easy to do:

Step 1: Gather all your information from blogs and news outlets with a definite ideological bias, ignoring all actual peer-reviewed scientific sources.

Step 2: Assume that all scientists are in on a massive worldwide conspiracy to deny you of your constitutional right to drive your Hummer to the end of your driveway to check your mail. Instead, latch onto every conspiracy theory there is, especially those that preach blind devotion to free market principles and profit-over-people paradigms.

Step 3: Toss out every last shred of critical thinking skills you've picked up in your life. (If you can also become illiterate, that'll help tremendously.)

Once you've done those things, congratulations! You've become a 3%'er!

(Note that the above works not just with climate science, but with pretty much any issue where common sense runs up against relentless pursuit of profit.)
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks for the post and links, Dr. M.

I'm tired of being a 97%'er. I want to be one of the 3% who believe everything is just fine and we can't do anything about it so don't even try. Let's develop the floodplain and if the water supply runs dry, either move or buy bottled water. Yeah, that is it! Lets rebuild all these flooded buildings right where they are, just as they are. That will make more jobs and everybody will be happy. Till the next time.

So we have gone from record drought to record flood in "record" time. What are the chances we are dry again by August?


Thanks Dr. Masters for posting the link about perceptions, I am still reading, and following the secondary links.

@biff4ugo - Isn't it interesting that your response ties the two topics in today's blog together, when Dr. Masters never says the two are related (flooding and climate change). I know its in jest, but there is always truth in jest.

I see that a lot. In the video's posted here from National Geographic about possible effects of GW, I saw the same thing. They talked about warming seas, and then about increased coral bleaching cycles, and by inclusion implied they were related, but never explained it. Pretty slick.

Thanks Doc!
Quoting Neapolitan:
(Note that the above works not just with climate science, but with pretty much any issue where common sense runs up against relentless pursuit of profit.)


Yeah, but be careful. Common sense says to be skeptical of everyone trying to sell you something to make a living out of it...
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's easy to do:

Step 1: Gather all your information from blogs and news outlets with a definite ideological bias, ignoring all actual peer-reviewed scientific sources.

Step 2: Assume that all scientists are in on a massive worldwide conspiracy to deny you of your constitutional right to drive your Hummer to the end of your driveway to check your mail. Instead, latch onto every conspiracy theory there is, especially those that preach blind devotion to free market principles and profit-over-people paradigms.

Step 3: Toss out every last shred of critical thinking skills you've picked up in your life. (If you can also become illiterate, that'll help tremendously.)

Once you've done those things, congratulations! You've become a 3%'er!

(Note that the above works not just with climate science, but with pretty much any issue where common sense runs up against relentless pursuit of profit.)


1. What do we blame with GW?????
2. what do we blame with AGW????
3. what do we blame with CC????

does GW cause AGW that then causes CC????
does AGW cause GW that then causes CC????
does CC cause GW that then causes AGW???
does CC cause AGW that then causes GW????
Good morning, thanks doc for the entry
Quoting DFWdad:


Yeah, but be careful. Common sense says to be skeptical of everyone trying to sell you something to make a living out of it...
There's certainly truth to that--but to view all merchants with equal skepticism isn't logical. For instance, a cigarette maker in pursuit of a living wants you to get a case of Marlboros; an oncologist in pursuit of a living wants you to avoid a case of lung cancer. To deny the latter as easily as you deny the former would make no sense. You know?
Quoting DFWdad:


Thanks Dr. Masters for posting the link about perceptions, I am still reading, and following the secondary links.

@biff4ugo - Isn't it interesting that your response ties the two topics in today's blog together, when Dr. Masters never says the two are related (flooding and climate change). I know its in jest, but there is always truth in jest.

I see that a lot. In the video's posted here from National Geographic about possible effects of GW, I saw the same thing. They talked about warming seas, and then about increased coral bleaching cycles, and by inclusion implied they were related, but never explained it. Pretty slick.



Warmer water and coral bleaching are related. That's a well established fact, although other factors, such as pollution/sediment blocking sunlight can also cause bleaching.

During the record 1998 El Nino, there were extensive coral bleaching incidents. Coral polyps have a symbiotic relationship with algae. If the algae die due to warmer temperatures, so do the polyps, and the coral 'bleaches'.
While there has been a lot of discussion on the ENSO models, it is of interest that most of the models are in closer agreement than it would appear. This model "plume model" for region 3.4 from the IRI shows very little variation in current predicted conditions. Most observe neutral ENSO conditions to prevail, while some show a moderate la Nina through the summer. Only a few "statistical" models are showing a weak el Nino.



The ENSO dynamic models reflect an even closer trend, with the ECMWF and MetFrace, still being the outlier, but only slightly.



The conclusion or inference would be that most likely, the EURO will probably move down slightly from the el Nino favored thinking to at least a neutral ENSO forecast through most of the season.

It is so difficult to predict what the new models will be when you don't have all the information.



Quoting Neapolitan:
That's easy to do:

Step 1: Gather all your information from blogs and news outlets with a definite ideological bias, ignoring all actual peer-reviewed scientific sources.

Step 2: Assume that all scientists are in on a massive worldwide conspiracy to deny you of your constitutional right to drive your Hummer to the end of your driveway to check your mail. Instead, latch onto every conspiracy theory there is, especially those that preach blind devotion to free market principles and profit-over-people paradigms.

Step 3: Toss out every last shred of critical thinking skills you've picked up in your life. (If you can also become illiterate, that'll help tremendously.)

Once you've done those things, congratulations! You've become a 3%'er!

(Note that the above works not just with climate science, but with pretty much any issue where common sense runs up against relentless pursuit of profit.)


And what about this:
Link
Quoting JupiterKen:


And what about this:
Link


good point jk.....
The ESPI is way down there right now.



ESPI at -1.39
Thanks for the new post Doc,
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The ESPI is way down there right now.



ESPI at -1.39
And what does it mean?
Quoting Gearsts:
And what does it mean?


Conditions are in Neutral with any sign of El Nino. If the ESPI goes well above +1.00,that implies warmer conditions.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Conditions are in Neutral with any sign of El Nino. If the ESPI goes well above +1.00,that implies warmer conditions.


Re-post from this morning:

ENSO neutral state expected to persist well into winter
Issued on Tuesday 23 April 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific has remained in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state since mid 2012. Currently, all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO remain within their neutral range. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology favour ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) persisting through the southern hemisphere winter.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has greatest influence upon Australia’s climate from May through to November. Model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD is most likely for the coming months; however, two of the five models surveyed indicate the possibility of a negative IOD heading into the southern spring. A negative IOD during spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.

Next update expected on 7 May 2013 | print version

Monthly sea surface temperatures:

The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for March shows warm anomalies have emerged along the equator in parts of the eastern Pacific, replacing cool anomalies which were present during February. Warm anomalies in the western Pacific and around Australia’s north and west have weakened while warm anomalies to Australia’s south have strengthened, particularly in the southeast; surface waters in these areas are generally more than 1 °C warmer than average. Broadly, the tropical Pacific Ocean remains close to the long term average.

Baseline period 1961–1990. Index February March Temperature change
NINO3 −0.3 +0.3 0.6 °C warmer
NINO3.4 −0.2 +0.1 0.3 °C warmer
NINO4 0.0 0.0 no change

Weekly sea surface temperatures:

SST anomalies have cooled slightly across all three monitored NINO indices compared to two weeks ago. The pattern of SST anomalies across the Pacific Basin remains generally similar although cool anomalies along the South American coastline have decreased in strength. The map for the week ending 21 April shows SSTs along the equator are mostly near average for this time of the year with weak warm anomalies in the far western Pacific. Warm anomalies remain around much of the Australian coastline, and have strengthened during the past two weeks.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Gearsts,the wind today is from the ESE so you may see some thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
Quoting JupiterKen:


And what about this:
Link
Yeah, I saw that this morning, but couldn't stop laughing after running into this nonsensically knee-slapping bit of anti-logic in the second paragraph:

"If the world were experiencing a climate crisis owing to global warming, there shouldn't be a single record low temperature anywhere in the world."

Aside from the fact that it's blatantly ungrammatical, that may very well be the single dumbest thing I've ever read in defense of climate change denial. And, brother, believe me when I tell you there is an awful lot of competition for that distinction. ;-)

Further evidence that Step #1 works!
Take a timeout for a second from the daily, hourly, minute-by-minute AGW argument and view this beautiful sunrise from this morning in Washington County, AL. The photo was taken by photographer Brian Dumas.

More warmer this year than in 2012.

2012



2013

7 biff4ugo: Will all that coal on the river bottom, carbon filter the river like it does in my aquarium? Could this be possibly be good in some way?

Nope. A carbon filter is effectively highly porous pure carbon bound to an inert mesh, or even just a block of highly porous pure carbon.
Coal is porous carbon saturated with various hydrocarbons and other organics as well as inorganics such as sulphur-based compounds, silicon dioxide, aluminum oxide, iron oxide, and calcium oxide along with antimony, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chlorine, chromium, cobalt, lead, manganese, mercury, nickel, potassium, selenium, thorium, and uranium.
Up to 50% may be ash left behind after the coal is burned. If combustion leaves behind more than 50% ash, the material can't legally be called coal.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Take a timeout for a second from the daily, hourly, minute-by-minute AGW argument and view this beautiful sunrise from this morning in Washington County, AL. The photo was taken by photographer Brian Dumas.



That is a beautiful Photo ..Thanks for posting it !
Robert MacMillan @bobbymacReports 2m
White House spokesman Carney says Obama is fine: @Reuters
Retweeted by Reuters Top News

Apparently the AP twitter was hacked
Quoting Neapolitan:
"If the world were experiencing a climate crisis owing to global warming, there shouldn't be a single record low temperature anywhere in the world."

LOL!

Upon reading that kind of straw man argument in any document, article, etc, one should immediately cease reading any farther without a head vice.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The Associated Press ‏@AP 9m
Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured


Humm You might want to check the website....Disregard bogus tweets from AP Twitter account
Quoting DFWdad:


Yeah, but be careful. Common sense says to be skeptical of everyone trying to sell you something to make a living out of it...


Climate scientists aren't selling anything. Their job is to study and research the climate and all it entails. Just like the scientists who studied acid rain, ozone depletion, and a myriad of other controversial scientific issues in the past.

Scientists find a problem. They point out the cause of the problem and recommend ways to address the problem. They don't provide solutions. The market and/or government are supposed to provide the solutions based on the science. However, that rarely happens smoothly.

Unfortunately, there are usually wealthy and well entrenched entities that currently benefit from said problem, and solutions may impact their bottom line. These monied interests fight tooth and nail against the science so they can keep their profit margins. There's even a thriving industry that specializes in such disinformation campaigns (some of them the same ones that tried to discredit the science showing moking causes problems). This has happened many times in the past and it will most likely continue in the future.

The scientists aren't trying to sell you anything. I've yet to see a scientific paper that ends with "So buy X to invest in our future!". They're presenting their results. Whether or not you listen to th results is up to you. Personally, I trust scientists (who's results I can see and validate) far more than I trust multi-billion dollar companies who historically have given less than a steaming turd about the environment. To me, that's just common sense.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The Associated Press %u200F@AP 9m
Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is injured


http://www.heavy.com/news/2013/04/ap-twitter-hack ed-explosions-in-white-house-obama-injured/

Yet another twitter account hacked.
Perhaps we should start becoming skeptical of big things we see only on twitter during this recent era of twitter account hackings.
Quoting VR46L:


Humm You might want to check the website....Disregard bogus tweets from AP Twitter account
Quoting ScottLincoln:


http://www.heavy.com/news/2013/04/ap-twitter-hack ed-explosions-in-white-house-obama-injured/

Yet another twitter account hacked.


Yeah I just saw that elsewhere. "Syrian Electronic Army" claims responsibility.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


http://www.heavy.com/news/2013/04/ap-twitter-hack ed-explosions-in-white-house-obama-injured/

Yet another twitter account hacked.
Perhaps we should start becoming skeptical of big things we see only on twitter during this recent era of twitter account hackings.


I never post things from twitter after one tweet.
Something major gets retweeted many times by cnnbreaking, cnn, nbc, cbs, etc over and over.

Obviously investors had fun

I have a friend that lives in Duluth and even he is complaining about the extended winter. I have to say if you live Duluth you won't see very many palm trees alive!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Aside from the fact that it's blatantly ungrammatical, that may very well be the single dumbest thing I've ever read in defense of climate change denial. And, brother, believe me when I tell you there is an awful lot of competition for that distinction. ;-)

Further evidence that Step #1 works!

...or aside from the fact that its a straw man and ungrammatical, the "real deniers of climate change" remain people like the author of that article. It's almost like they have confused weather with climate. It's almost like they've confused <10% of the earth's surface with 100% of the earth's surface. It's almost like they are so gullible they eat this stuff up without one ounce of skeptical fact-checking. But that can't be true, can it?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/3#temp

Quoting NOAA NCDC:
The globally-averaged temperature across the world's land and ocean surfaces was 0.58C (1.04F) above the 20th century average of 12.7C (54.9F), tying with 2006 as the 10th warmest March since records began in 1880. Both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres were also 10th warmest for March.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Robert MacMillan @bobbymacReports 2m
White House spokesman Carney says Obama is fine: @Reuters
Retweeted by Reuters Top News

Apparently the AP twitter was hacked


Unfortunately, it was just "bogus"....

I did get a laugh and a facepalm when I seen it though xD
Quoting yonzabam:


Warmer water and coral bleaching are related. That's a well established fact, although other factors, such as pollution/sediment blocking sunlight can also cause bleaching.

During the record 1998 El Nino, there were extensive coral bleaching incidents. Coral polyps have a symbiotic relationship with algae. If the algae die due to warmer temperatures, so do the polyps, and the coral 'bleaches'.


Not to mention the fact that ocean acidification caused by increased amounts of CO2 disolved in the oceans is harmful to coral.
Quoting JupiterKen:


And what about this:
Link


That link is:

1. An editorial, on an opinion page
2. Contains no citations other than cherry picked examples that favor his opinion
3. Written by a person who is on the payroll of political groups who openly dismiss nearly all science.

There is an difference that is easy to spot when you read one of the few, peer-reviewed papers that attemmpt to provide scientific evidence that counters anthropogenic global warming. If you find one of these and read it, you will spot the difference.

I have the utmost respect for scientists who challenge the empirical evidence of AGW in papers and journals. They are true skeptics.

The guy who wrote that is a denier.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's certainly truth to that--but to view all merchants with equal skepticism isn't logical. For instance, a cigarette maker in pursuit of a living wants you to get a case of Marlboros; an oncologist in pursuit of a living wants you to avoid a case of lung cancer. To deny the latter as easily as you deny the former would make no sense. You know?


I agree and disagree.

Morally, yes, you can place an an oncologist on higher moral ground.

But the Cancer Therapy Market is an US$ 78 Billion industry, and it should be watched over with skepticism because of profit motives.

And Global Warming should not be assigned such a high moral standing that the motives of some involved cannot be questioned.

Denial, or complete acceptance for that matter, really is not scientific, but a matter of faith.

I found this article in of the links in Dr. Master's blog.
Climate denier, skeptic, or contrarian?
Quoting DFWdad:


I agree and disagree.

Morally, yes, you can place an an oncologist on higher moral ground.

But the Cancer Therapy Market is an US$ 78 Billion industry, and it should be watched over with skepticism because of profit motives.

And Global Warming should not be assigned such a high moral standing that the motives of some involved cannot be questioned.

Denial, or complete acceptance for that matter, really is not scientific, but a matter of faith.

I found this article in of the links in Dr. Master's blog.
Climate denier, skeptic, or contrarian?
If someone were a true scientist,they would still hold a little skepticism in their theory also. Hence the word,( theory). Good point,DFWdad!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I never post things from twitter after one tweet.
Something major gets retweeted many times by cnnbreaking, cnn, nbc, cbs, etc over and over.

Obviously investors had fun



Twitter, like most sites on the web, is full of bull at times.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Climate scientists aren't selling anything. Their job is to study and research the climate and all it entails. Just like the scientists who studied acid rain, ozone depletion, and a myriad of other controversial scientific issues in the past.

Scientists find a problem. They point out the cause of the problem and recommend ways to address the problem. They don't provide solutions. The market and/or government are supposed to provide the solutions based on the science. However, that rarely happens smoothly.

Unfortunately, there are usually wealthy and well entrenched entities that currently benefit from said problem, and solutions may impact their bottom line. These monied interests fight tooth and nail against the science so they can keep their profit margins. There's even a thriving industry that specializes in such disinformation campaigns (some of them the same ones that tried to discredit the science showing moking causes problems). This has happened many times in the past and it will most likely continue in the future.

The scientists aren't trying to sell you anything. I've yet to see a scientific paper that ends with "So buy X to invest in our future!". They're presenting their results. Whether or not you listen to th results is up to you. Personally, I trust scientists (who's results I can see and validate) far more than I trust multi-billion dollar companies who historically have given less than a steaming turd about the environment. To me, that's just common sense.


I pretty much agree (no denial here), but Scientists are not independently wealthy. They depend on grants for research. I do not think researchers get to research things that are unpopular unless a congressman wants money for his state.

My nephew is a lawyer involved in large medical settlements, and we were talking about the whole smoking thing this weekend. It was an attorney who got the breakthrough, when he got an industry expert to turn on his company. Made the attorney stinking rich!
Another round of strong storms possible at 36 hours?

Quoting Neapolitan:
Yeah, I saw that this morning, but couldn't stop laughing after running into this nonsensically knee-slapping bit of anti-logic in the second paragraph:

"If the world were experiencing a climate crisis owing to global warming, there shouldn't be a single record low temperature anywhere in the world."

Aside from the fact that it's blatantly ungrammatical, that may very well be the single dumbest thing I've ever read in defense of climate change denial. And, brother, believe me when I tell you there is an awful lot of competition for that distinction. ;-)

Further evidence that Step #1 works!


As usual, you attack the person and not the facts. Except for one questionable statement and poor grammar, you agree with everything else?
Quoting DFWdad:


I pretty much agree (no denial here), but Scientists are not independently wealthy. They depend on grants for research.

Scientists, like those doing research at universities, are typically paid a set salary, which is many times visible to the public. This salary may be supplemented through grant funds, but I don't think I've heard of people having a salary that changes substantially up/down depending on how many grants they receive. The researcher in that situation will still get paid regardless of the science he or she wishes to study, but that scientist will have to find funding for the actual research or use their own money. Before tenure is reached, that scientist will have a push to get several papers out within a set amount of time.

I'm not sure what you mean by "independly wealthy" but a scientist at a university - and most all government scientists - are not going to get rich of their research funds, nor are they going to somehow get rich off of tons of grants.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Unfortunately, it was just "bogus"....

I did get a laugh and a facepalm when I seen it though xD


Unfortunately?
Quoting ARiot:


That link is:

1. An editorial, on an opinion page
2. Contains no citations other than cherry picked examples that favor his opinion
3. Written by a person who is on the payroll of political groups who openly dismiss nearly all science.

There is an difference that is easy to spot when you read one of the few, peer-reviewed papers that attemmpt to provide scientific evidence that counters anthropogenic global warming. If you find one of these and read it, you will spot the difference.

I have the utmost respect for scientists who challenge the empirical evidence of AGW in papers and journals. They are true skeptics.

The guy who wrote that is a denier.



Both sides link to opinion pages with cherry-picked information.
Quoting allahgore:



Both sides link to opinion pages with cherry-picked information.


Tell me about it, I wish this arguing would stop already.
Quoting overwash12:
If someone were a true scientist,they would still hold a little skepticism in their theory also. Hence the word,( theory). Good point,DFWdad!


A scientific theory is "the most reliable, rigorous, and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge. This is significantly different from the word "theory" in common usage, which implies that something is unsubstantiated or speculative"

Edited to say: Scientific theories have gone through confirmation through repeated observation and experimentation as well, it's not some arbitrary term.
Quoting JupiterKen:


As usual, you attack the person and not the facts. Except for one questionable statement and poor grammar, you agree with everything else?

There's not really any facts to question. It's pure nonsense at its core. As I mentioned earlier, there comes a point when you reach an error so major, so fundamental to the science being "discussed," that it really isn't wise to go any farther because it is very very likely one will not find anything of value.

It's not an ad hominem attack, it's making a prediction based upon the evidence.

Do you want someone to go through and point and point indicate that it is all nonsense?

Quoting Naga5000:


A scientific theory is "the most reliable, rigorous, and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge. This is significantly different from the word "theory" in common usage, which implies that something is unsubstantiated or speculative"

Unfortunately, the general public usage of "theory" and the science world usage of "theory" have diverged.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Scientists, like those doing research at universities, are typically paid a set salary, which is many times visible to the public. This salary may be supplemented through grant funds, but I don't think I've heard of people having a salary that changes substantially up/down depending on how many grants they receive. The researcher in that situation will still get paid regardless of the science him or her wishes to study, but that scientist will have to find funding for the actual research or use their own money. Before tenure is reached, that scientist will have a push to get several papers out within a set amount of time.

I'm not sure what you mean by "independly wealthy" but a scientist at a university - and most all government scientists - are not going to get rich of their research funds, nor are they going to somehow get rich off of tons of grants.


Is that why many do independant studies to supplement their income? What is the average income for someone that works at the NWS or NOAA?
Quoting JupiterKen:


As usual, you attack the person and not the facts. Except for one questionable statement and poor grammar, you agree with everything else?
No, I didn't attack the person; I commented on the abject stupidity of something he stated as factual. No, that statement isn't "questionable"; it's stupid. No, I don't agree with anything else; I told you I couldn't finish reading because I was laughing too hard.
Quoting allahgore:


Is that why many do independant studies to supplement their income? What is the average income for someone that works at the NWS or NOAA?


70k to 104k.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, I didn't attack the person; I commented on the abject stupidity of something he stated as factual. No, that statement isn't "questionable"; it's stupid. No, I don't agree with anything else; I told you I couldn't finish reading because I was laughing too hard.


Well then, finish reading it and tell us which statements are false.

Link
Quoting allahgore:
Quoting allahgore:
What is the average income for someone that works at the NWS or NOAA?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
70k to 104k.

What source did you use for this? This seems more like the average for management or for lead forecasters who have been at the NWS for 10 years.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, I didn't attack the person; I commented on the abject stupidity of something he stated as factual. No, that statement isn't "questionable"; it's stupid. No, I don't agree with anything else; I told you I couldn't finish reading because I was laughing too hard.


Look NEA you are not being all that fair with Jupiterken; Its no different when you post links from Mother Jones or TMZ. Both sides do this, it's all the sudden a big deal?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


What source did you use for this? This seems more like the average for management or for lead forecasters who have been at the NWS for 10 years.


Lead forecaster.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


70k to 104k.


Not to bad of income.
Quoting allahgore:


Not to bad of income.


No income isn't bad at all.
Quoting JupiterKen:


Well then, finish reading it and tell us which statements are false.

Link

After reading the article and finding that virtually every single paragraph had an either completely incorrect statement or unsourced, context-lacking quotes, I'm going to maintain my earlier statement. Just as predicted, the rest of the article was nonsense and strawman arguments.

You really should be skeptical about the things you find on the internet - it's an important skill to develop, otherwise you will remain gullible at times when skepticism would serve your interests best.
CMC and Euro looking very interesting off the SE US next week. Could be an interest for tropical development next.

Quoting FunnelVortex:
I wish this arguing would stop already.
So do I. What do you say we all agree to let scientists speak for science, and leave the ideological nonsense for the next political fundraiser?
Quoting JupiterKen:


Well then, finish reading it and tell us which statements are false.

Link
I'm afraid I Won't do that for you. If I'm reading an article on physics and see that it begins with, "If gravity really existed, airplanes wouldn't be able to fly" I'd not waste my time reading any farther, either. However, if you care to post here and defend some of the less egregious pieces of nonsense from that piece, someone might respond to you...
Just might have our first named system next week developing across the SW Atlantic and moving west toward N FL or S GA.
Here in Boulder Colorado we've had quite month. The 10.2 inches that fell overnight set a new April record of 46.2 inches, besting the previous record of 44 set in 1957! Unfortunately as a result, the snowpack in the high country is very touchy, and there has been 6 avalanche fatalities in the past few days from large deep persistent slab avalanches.

Sources:
Link
Link

The two avalanches. First one resulted in 5 fatalities by Loveland Pass, the second one a lone fatality by Vail Pass.




Topo map of first Avalanche.
Remember Beryl from 2012?

Here is the latest MJO forecast.

Just to clear the air this would be "sub tropical".
41 VR46L: You might want to check the website....Disregard bogus tweets from AP Twitter account
43 ScottLincoln: [Faked Obama injury report] Yet another twitter account hacked.
Perhaps we should start becoming skeptical of big things we see only on twitter during this recent era of twitter account hackings.

44 WxGeekVA: Yeah I just saw that elsewhere. "Syrian Electronic Army" claims responsibility.
45 GeorgiaStormz: Obviously investors had fun

Follow the money. The "Syrian Electronic Army" is probably a short-seller or two who wanted to panic the stockmarket

Monkeys, monkeys, everywhere...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Just might have our first named system next week developing across the SW Atlantic and moving west toward N FL or S GA.
Really? Have not been paying attention to any of the models lately and would like to know more about this possible system. I am guessing it is sub-tropical. Have some family down in Savannah so would be good to know.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Really? Have not been paying attention to any of the models lately and would like to know more about this possible system. I am guessing it is sub-tropical. Have some family down in Savannah so would be good know.


A situation to what happened with Beryl back in May 2012 may replay itself next week across the SE US.

Upper energy diving SE


Causing a surface reflection off the SE US.
86. MTWX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Lead forecaster.


Most of which have a PhD. So it actually is on the low side when compared with doctors in other fields...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


A situation to what happened with Beryl back in May 2012 may replay itself next week across the SE US.

Upper energy diving SE


Causing a surface reflection off the SE US.
Does not look to severe but I am guessing a decent flood threat is possible if the storm makes it on shore?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the latest MJO forecast.



The MJO, while weak, is wanting to stay on our side of the world. May not last through hurricane season, but a lot of things are beginning to align for quite an active hurricane season. This season could be one that has several majors and not so many weak, barely named systems. I, for one, am tired of the subtropical nonsense we've seen lately.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Just might have our first named system next week developing across the SW Atlantic and moving west toward N FL or S GA.


Ummmm, no. It looks extratropical.



Quoting FunnelVortex:


Ummmm, no. It looks extratropical.





I'm talking next week.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I'm talking next week.


I looked at the GFS and it isnt showing any lows or thunderstorm masses near the US. Just some unsettled weather in the Carribean.
CMC out 144hrs.

It is unusually hot here today.
Quoting JupiterKen:


Well then, finish reading it and tell us which statements are false.

Link
Sorry, but I have a better idea - YOU read it and tell us what is NOT false.....

Sorry all, but I have been reading these silly little taunts and attacks for many years here, and they are basically all the same: Comparisons between science and op-ed pieces....People that don't know the difference between climate and weather....Politically motivated bull....And the article referenced was all of the above and then some.

If you don't like Dr. M's blog, why do you come here? The only answer I can fathom is that you like to taunt and bully - like on the grade school playground....
How HOT is it?
Deleted, double posted into comment 101 while editing
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
CMC out 144hrs.



1015 MB and close to land.

Sorry, but I dont think that will be a subtrop.
Just two months ago, Lake Michigan was at Record Lows. This is really great news. Lake Michigan Water Level Rising!

Rainfall and melting snow in the Lake Michigan watershed has resulted in increasing water levels.

The water level of Lake Michigan measured in Milwaukee has been trending upward since early April. Heavy rainfall occurred in Milwaukee on April 8th, 9th and 10th and again on April 17th and 18th. Notice in the below graph how the water level in Milwaukee responded to the influx of rainfall during these periods.




2013 Milwaukee Water Levels for January, February and March





The Lake Michigan water level measured in Milwaukee has increased about two feet since mid-January. Lets hope this gradual upward trend continues through the rest of the Spring.
The pattern this year is very different than the past couple of years. The A/B high is displaced to the north of where it should be and is supposed to remain that way through the extended. It might be difficult for it to cut off the southern piece of a trough in an area where SSTs are warm enough for tropical development. Of course, all it takes is a brief change in the overall pattern to get a quick spin-up. We'll see.
54 DFWdad: I pretty much agree (no denial here), but scientists are not independently wealthy. They depend on grants for research. I do not think researchers get to research things that are unpopular unless a congressman wants money for his state.

The average climatologist could be making a LOT more money working as a quant for a financial firm, as a data-miner or engineering programmer for other large corporations, or even as a professional denialist.
And as I said before:
The US would be spending MORE on climate research if the climate were not changing. It's not as if we understand the mechanisms behind short-term (ENSO/etc) variations within a climate well enough for that knowledge to be applied in the creation of precise long-term weather forecasts.
Due to its sensor&stealth&communication programs, the USNavy is VERY interested in haloclines and oceanic thermoclines and sea-ice topography independent of their effect on weather.
Its support is the main reason that underwater gliders and the ArgoProject so easily received funding for the research&development of the hardware and software, for their deployment, and for the ongoing research using those tools.
For similar reasons, the USNavy and USAirForce are VERY interested in atmospheric thermoclines, baroclinicity, and atmospheric chemistry&physics independent of their effect on weather.
Add the CentralIntelligenceAgency, the NationalReconnaissanceOffice, and the USmilitary in general to the list of folks who are VERY interested independent of their effect on weather, and ya get where the very strong behind-the-scenes support for funding NASA as well as the geophysical and astronomical communities comes from.
(Think of such funding as being for military and intelligence "black project"s that attract the most creative scientists&engineers by providing the figleaf of "I'm not working for soldiers and spies.")
And all of the above organizations as well as others are also VERY interested in accurate long-term weather prediction for various reasons, and in long-term climate effects for strategic planning.

Without ClimateChange and its tie-in to GreenhouseGas emissions, that background support for more funding would be overwhelming.
As is, we've got a LOT of Congressmen who are quite willing to betray their nation to enhance the profits of the fossil fuel industry and other industries that are the most dependent upon cheap fossil fuels.
As is, we've got a LOT of Congressmen blocking and delaying funds for needed research tools such as replacements for QuikSCAT* (given its projected lifetime in 1999, there should have been 3 more of 'em up there by the time the original came down in 2009) and GRACE^ (ever evolving gravimetric information needed for accuracy in inertial guidance systems)

* Among other things that torqued off the FossilFuel&etc industries and their Congressional lackeys, QuikSCAT was the first to provide strong hard data about the decrease in the volume of the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica due to melting.
^ GRACE confirmed QuikSCAT data while tightening error parameters that even more strongly showed the ice caps to be melting, then later showed a large increase in the rate of melting since the original QuikSCAT finding.
12Z Euro.

Quoting PedleyCA:
How HOT is it?


It's FL! It's 84 here with a dewpoint of 67 right now. Which is actually cool compared to what it was late last week when dewpoints were in the low to mid 70's.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro.



Looks like a piece of a departing trough gets caught underneath a building ridge to the north. Certainly is interesting and something to watch. 240+ hours out is way in advance, but interesting nonetheless. Water temps in that location are sub-26C at the moment, but they could get close to 26C in 10 days.
Looks like Tornado Season will be shut down the first part of May. Sorry storm chasers maybe next year.
The Chicago Flooding Event Last Week. Read More Here.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Tornado Season will be shut down the first part of May. Sorry storm chasers maybe next year.


We have all summer.
This is just gettin' weird. :)

Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn

Highs Wednesday may be 20 degrees colder across Southeast Texas as a strong cold front sweeps through the area during the morning - Upper 50s to near 60. Fairly high rain chances will remain throughout the day.

Currently, temperatures are only in the 30s in the Texas Panhandle.



Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks like a piece of a departing trough gets caught underneath a building ridge to the north. Certainly is interesting and something to watch. 240+ hours out is way in advance, but interesting nonetheless. Water temps in that location are sub-26C at the moment, but they could get close to 26C in 10 days.


Yeah models are certainly becoming increasingly interesting for next week as it looks like the SE US is heading into a wet season type pattern which could feature a sub tropical system. Something to watch as the week goes forward.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Tornado Season will be shut down the first part of May. Sorry storm chasers maybe next year.
Why do you say that?
remember months ago when i posted Ice Age stuff..people laughed lol...whats the record low temps now? fear IT more than this global warming..
Quoting Gearsts:
Why do you say that?


Lots of disturbed weather across the Southeastern US as an upper trough slides in from the EAST. What in turn happens is that this blocks some of the deep moisture from heading north.






Supposed to be 87 today. It is only 70.0 right now but it is clear. Should 5-10° warmer than it is right now according to the forecast (hourly). Marine didn't overstay its welcome this morning. Forecast is for 87.
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
The Chicago Flooding Event Last Week. Read More Here.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The interesting thing to me is that it didn't seem to require a ~1% ("100yr") rainfall event to cause major flooding that is nearing/exceeding records.

7.0-7.5" is roughly the 1% rainfall event over a 48hr period in central Illinois. 6.0-6.5" for 24hrs.
ftp://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pub/hdsc/data/orb/in100y4 8h.pdf
Quoting LargoFl:
remember months ago when i posted Ice Age stuff..people laughed lol...whats the record low temps now? fear IT more than this global warming..

That wasn't months ago, that's now. 10th warmest March on record and you post stuff about an ice age coming, all because 2% of the globe had near-normal temperatures (middle tercile) for on month. That is worth an "LOL!"
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 7m
Braves and Rockies just started their doubleheader from Denver. 23 degrees at first pitch...coldest in Coors Field history.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Tornado Season will be shut down the first part of May. Sorry storm chasers maybe next year.

The years similar to this one had major tornado activity in late May and June. But yeah, tornado activity looks low for the next two weeks or so.
118. MTWX
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The interesting thing to me is that it didn't seem to require a ~1% ("100yr") rainfall event to cause major flooding that is nearing/exceeding records.

7.0-7.5" is roughly the 1% rainfall event over a 48hr period in central Illinois. 6.0-6.5" for 24hrs.
ftp://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pub/hdsc/data/orb/in100y4 8h.pdf


True, but you also have to factor in the large amounts of snow melt coming down the Missouri from the Dakotas where they recently had a 2'+ snow event followed by temps in the 60's causing rapid melting.
S IL, the top map is a little off for my county (Montgomery), the heavy rain steak should be or extend further north. Shows my location at 4-5" & we had almost 8! Regardless, a lot of rain. No morels in my patch Sat, hope to find some tonight!
Quoting LargoFl:
remember months ago when i posted Ice Age stuff..people laughed lol...whats the record low temps now? fear IT more than this global warming..
I just want it warm up so I can get my garden started,red potatoes love this weather,though.
I must add the streams, rivers and lakes were already running above average for much of Northern Illinois due to the very snowy (near record) February coupled with the arctic air during all of March and the beginning of April. As a result, much of the snow pack and moisture locked in amidst a frozen ground hung around longer and subsequently contributed to above average stream flows this Spring.

The heavy rain last week was the straw the broke the camel's back...
It was already pretty wet and river was up before this occurred Scott - at least in C IL, not sure about Chicagoland. Went over MS weekend before at 270 and Chain of Rocks no longer visible, just turbulence. Nothing but sandbars and a narrow channel two months before.

MTWX - MO river not really a factor in Upper MS & IL river flooding. Actually it never peaked as high as expected, so between that and some farmland levees giving way on Upper MS, they dropped StL peak to 35' from 39.5'. Now if it gets here and we don't start drying out to N & E, we could start approaching '93 levels.
The coldest place in the nation (over the past 24 hours ending at 3 p.m. EST) was Lake Yellowstone, WY with a temp. of -10 F GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE! It is almost May and theres negative temperatures in the US...
This is off topic, but falls under the topic of good news (which no one likes to report these days). The price per barrel of oil has fallen below $90 a barrel.

Oil (Light Crude)
June 2013 contract
$ / barrel Floor 89.18
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, I didn't attack the person; I commented on the abject stupidity of something he stated as factual.
let's put this in a vacuum for a moment.. what would attacking a person be?
none of us wishes to view ourselves as an 'attacker', but you're definitely using some malleable support to counter such a charge.
while i agree with you, and this goes on and on, you're not being the slightest bit agreeable.
so take it from me, someone who's definitely not trying to shoot the message!
sometimes it is the messenger...
idk, sometimes i just need to say something about this.
edit: and i'm all cool with the in-your-face approach, i do it too.. it's denying the fact of the matter, and i figure we both have had enough denial round here ;)
Quoting LargoFl:
remember months ago when i posted Ice Age stuff..people laughed lol...whats the record low temps now? fear IT more than this global warming..


Agree totally!

Corrupted emails, improper temperature recordings (it goes on and on) are only a couple of reasons why I'm a skeptic. The AGW argument is far from being over. In fact, if there is any consensus on this matter among scientists, it would NOT be in favor of AGW.


Proofs in the pudding my WU friends...
Link
128. VR46L
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is off topic, but falls under the topic of good news (which no one likes to report these days). The price per barrel of oil has fallen below $90 a barrel.

Oil (Light Crude)
June 2013 contract
$ / barrel Floor 89.18


I think some on here would not see that as good news ...


Quoting VR46L:


I think some on here would not see that as good news ...




I think you are correct in that statement but I personally would like to see it hold at $74.00 US. These high pump prices have put a hurtin' on my business.

And Gro, it has been unseasonably hot and humid down here for about 2 weeks.

Added: We've had 8 straight nights where the low temperature was above 80, all records. That streak ended last night.
Quoting VR46L:


I think some on here would not see that as good news ...


It does boost the economy though!
Science vs Bull$#!%

Quoting VR46L:


I think some on here would not see that as good news ...




Lol. There is no doubt about that. However, until an alternate fuel is made it makes no sense to put everyone in the poor house because they are paying $50 or more each time they go to the pump.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro.



what are you trying to display on those ? Never mind...I see now
134. VR46L
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I think you are correct in that statement but I personally would like to see it hold at $74.00 US. These high pump prices have put a hurtin' on my business.

And Gro, it has been unseasonably hot and humid down here for about 2 weeks.


Do ya know what a gallon works out when everything is converted over here .. its just around 1.50 Euro a litre .. Times by 3.75 works out around 5.5 Euro a gallon...which is about $7.2 a gallon ...

So its very good news for most here in Ireland ...
Quoting MississippiWx:
This is off topic, but falls under the topic of good news (which no one likes to report these days). The price per barrel of oil has fallen below $90 a barrel.

Oil (Light Crude)
June 2013 contract
$ / barrel Floor 89.18


Not necessarily good news. Falls in oil prices often reflect a global economic slowdown. Other non-food commodity prices have also fallen.

The postponed economic collapse of 2008 has still to happen.
Yet my pump prices have jumped up 2X in last two days - go figure! Had been expecting another drop when saw below $90 Monday.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1007 AM HST TUE APR 23 2013

HIZ005>011-232215-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
1007 AM HST TUE APR 23 2013

.NOW...
AT 1000 AM...RADAR SHOWING SOME INTENSE SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE
OAHU. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

$$

FOSTER
Good afternoon all. It must be my mood! I am getting po'd at certain posters. I already added another to my list. I guess my patience is thin today. While we are awaiting the "official" start of hurricane season, it would not surprise me to see a storm develop in May, even if from a trough. As I have been told in the past, a hurricane can form anytime as long as the conditions are ripe. Chillin has stated a fact about our temps here in the Keys. I was wondering how the rest of the Caribbean basin has been running with their temps.

Have a good one all and I will try to curb my impatience.

Quoting Minnemike:
let's put this in a vacuum for a moment.. what would attacking a person be?
none of us wishes to view ourselves as an 'attacker', but you're definitely using some malleable support to counter such a charge.
while i agree with you, and this goes on and on, you're not being the slightest bit agreeable.
so take it from me, someone who's definitely not trying to shoot the message!
sometimes it is the messenger...
idk, sometimes i just need to say something about this.
I'm afraid you're speaking a bit too generally, when a specific thread is in what's actually in question. To wit:

1) I posted a comment stating that it's better to base one's science decisions on actual science, not ideological blog postings.

2) In response, a member posted a link to--wouldn't you know it--an ideological blog posting that contained a number of provably false statements along with one profoundly idiotic one.

3) In response, I made note of the idiocy of that statement in particular, and the non-factual nature of the entire piece.

4) In response, that same member accused me of "attacking the person, not the facts".

5) In response, I noted that at no point did I "attack" the person. I didn't delve into his character, or his lineage, or his personal proclivities, or his opinions, or anything of the sort; I merely pointed out that the statement was idiotic.

You're certainly free to go back and read the entire thread for yourself. If you do so, please feel free explain just how you feel I'm being "malleable". A rebuttal--even a spirited one--is not an "attack". If someone tells me, "The earth is only three months old," I'm not attacking them when I answer back that that's a stupid statement. Ditto if they tell me they have it on good authority that the Apollo landings were a hoax, tobacco smoke doesn't cause cancer, Area 51 holds the bodies of dead aliens, or Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

Anyway, for what it's worth, I'm not interested in being "agreeable". The world in which I live, and the one I plan to leave for my children and they for theirs, is being destroyed by ideological types who for far too long have had both the megaphone and the reins. Science is taking both of those back, and the time for playing nice is long since passed...
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. It must be my mood! I am getting po'd at certain posters. I already added another to my list. I guess my patience is thin today. While we are awaiting the "official" start of hurricane season, it would not surprise me to see a storm develop in May, even if from a trough. As I have been told in the past, a hurricane can form anytime as long as the conditions are ripe. Chillin has stated a fact about our temps here in the Keys. I was wondering how the rest of the Caribbean basin has been running with their temps.

Have a good one all and I will try to curb my impatience.



SSTs and TCHP are well above average throughout the hurricane zone. It's hotter than 2005, even.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. It must be my mood! I am getting po'd at certain posters. I already added another to my list. I guess my patience is thin today. While we are awaiting the "official" start of hurricane season, it would not surprise me to see a storm develop in May, even if from a trough. As I have been told in the past, a hurricane can form anytime as long as the conditions are ripe. Chillin has stated a fact about our temps here in the Keys. I was wondering how the rest of the Caribbean basin has been running with their temps.

Have a good one all and I will try to curb my impatience.



Maybe your unfortunate incident over the weekend has eroded your compassion and patience a little. Keep on smilin' through the rain!!! :-)
Quoting yonzabam:


SSTs and TCHP are well above average throughout the hurricane zone. It's hotter than 2005, even.


The MDR is actually well below the 2005 level currently. Before the NAO switched from negative to positive, the MDR was on record pace. Since the trade winds are forecast to stay well below normal, it might can attempt a catch-up to the record pace it was on earlier.
Quoting NJWXMAN:
The coldest place in the nation (over the past 24 hours ending at 3 p.m. EST) was Lake Yellowstone, WY with a temp. of -10 F GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE! It is almost May and theres negative temperatures in the US...
I'm an AGW skeptic, but that means diddly. NOLS instructors had a saying about the Wind River Range (just SE of Yellowstone) - there are two seasons in the Winds, winter and the Fourth of July. And the Fourth of July that I was in the Winds, it snowed.

So it being oddly cold in that part of Wyoming is hardly unusual.
Quoting Naga5000:


A scientific theory is "the most reliable, rigorous, and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge. This is significantly different from the word "theory" in common usage, which implies that something is unsubstantiated or speculative"

Edited to say: Scientific theories have gone through confirmation through repeated observation and experimentation as well, it's not some arbitrary term.


I have posted this before, but apparently some people missed it:

Scientific theory

Definitions from scientific organizations

The United States National Academy of Sciences defines scientific theories as follows


The formal scientific definition of theory is quite different from the everyday meaning of the word. It refers to a comprehensive explanation of some aspect of nature that is supported by a vast body of evidence. Many scientific theories are so well established that no new evidence is likely to alter them substantially. For example, no new evidence will demonstrate that the Earth does not orbit around the sun (heliocentric theory), or that living things are not made of cells (cell theory), that matter is not composed of atoms, or that the surface of the Earth is not divided into solid plates that have moved over geological timescales (the theory of plate tectonics)...One of the most useful properties of scientific theories is that they can be used to make predictions about natural events or phenomena that have not yet been observed.[7]

From the American Association for the Advancement of Science:

A scientific theory is a well-substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world, based on a body of facts that have been repeatedly confirmed through observation and experiment. Such fact-supported theories are not "guesses" but reliable accounts of the real world. The theory of biological evolution is more than "just a theory." It is as factual an explanation of the universe as the atomic theory of matter or the germ theory of disease. Our understanding of gravity is still a work in progress. But the phenomenon of gravity, like evolution, is an accepted fact.[2]
Things are getting entirely too serious and angry in here. Chill out and laugh!

In other news today Norwegian army platoon falls victim to Harlem Sheikh terror plot. Extra point for identifying Grothar.


Quoting MTWX:


True, but you also have to factor in the large amounts of snow melt coming down the Missouri from the Dakotas where they recently had a 2'+ snow event followed by temps in the 60's causing rapid melting.

Right. What I meant by interesting was that there were other factors at the soil surface likely causing the difference between rainfall recurrence interval and streamflow recurrence interval. Typically these differences are in vegetation, farming practices, soil moisture, or may even be from other factors like you mentioned, such as rapid snow melt.
Nea, i find that when i tell people they are making stupid statements, they interpret that as calling them stupid. it's an easy mistake for people who make stupid statements to make.

my point about putting the statement in a vacuum was intended to have you actually step away from that ridiculous link of absurdity (not rehash it).. and maybe you missed my edit, but i'm not calling for a certain measure of tactfulness either. it actually pleases me far more to see that last paragraph in your reply to me, than any effort to claim innocence from, at the very least, mild character assassinations.. though i've seen you deal heavier blows than 'mild' ;)
so the take home from me is to give one less charade to the prancers who come to fight you.. it's that tiny bit of hypocrisy they call you on, which you deflate poignantly when stating "the time for playing nice is long since passed..."
dig
Record 1st cold air continues and ALGORE said ice cap would be gone by now and Prince Charles, the earth would burn up this year!On to the next man made fake disaster!!Onward weatherground saints!! The truth will never stop us!!
Quoting nymore:
You realize your wasting your time don't you. This person is never in the wrong. A legend in his own mind or if you prefer likes to be thought of as the smartest one in the room, the only problem is he was the only one in the room at the time.

This is why I nicknamed him Sheldon
the irony is that many who come to counter Nea will read my comments to him completely backwards.
i think he's right 99%.. it's that 1% of the time he claims to not attack anyone ;)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Maybe your unfortunate incident over the weekend has eroded your compassion and patience a little. Keep on smilin' through the rain!!! :-)
Yes. I am trying to stay positive and hope I am not being targeted on Stock Island. I think it was just opportunity. Compassion I have aplenty. I have a friend who is terminal, just waiting for the word. I have her dog. A bit neurotic, but I have known him all his life and promised his master that I would take him when she goes. The semi-feral cats I feed aren't too happy. But I think he is keeping the chickens out of the yard, so that is a plus.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The MDR is actually well below the 2005 level currently. Before the NAO switched from negative to positive, the MDR was on record pace. Since the trade winds are forecast to stay well below normal, it might can attempt a catch-up to the record pace it was on earlier.

2005

2013
Did you even look as far as the paper being cited? It concerns a survey of a group of 1000 professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta i.e. petroleum and bitumen folk.

Consider instead the stated positions of nearly every national science body and every major professional organization of geoscientists, climatologists and related fields in the world:

Link

Quoting russm1:


Agree totally!

Corrupted emails, improper temperature recordings (it goes on and on) are only a couple of reasons why I'm a skeptic. The AGW argument is far from being over. In fact, if there is any consensus on this matter among scientists, it would NOT be in favor of AGW.


Proofs in the pudding my WU friends...
Link
Quoting AGWcreationists:
NOLS instructors had a saying about the Wind River Range (just SE of Yellowstone) - there are two seasons in the Winds, winter and the Fourth of July. And the Fourth of July that I was in the Winds, it snowed.

So it being oddly cold in that part of Wyoming is hardly unusual.
I lived and worked in the Wind River Range for several years, including a stint at NOLS. (And our home phone was listed in the Lander telephone directory immediately before NOLS founder Paul Petzoldt. Woohoo.) I saw the Lander municipal golf course closed in May because of heavy snow; I saw sleet fall at the Fourth of July rodeo; I saw single-digit temperatures in every month from September to April; I saw nights in the thirties in even June and August. And Lander wasn't even the coldest town in the state; that's Big Piney or Pinedale or West Yellowstone (though both of those are frequently beaten in summer by Alamosa, Colorado, far to the south). So, yes: cold temperatures there aren't anything close to a rarity, not even in months that should be warm.
Quoting LargoFl:
remember months ago when i posted Ice Age stuff..people laughed lol...whats the record low temps now? fear IT more than this global warming..


there are lots of things
that could happen
here is one


Quoting MississippiWx:
The pattern this year is very different than the past couple of years. The A/B high is displaced to the north of where it should be and is supposed to remain that way through the extended. It might be difficult for it to cut off the southern piece of a trough in an area where SSTs are warm enough for tropical development. Of course, all it takes is a brief change in the overall pattern to get a quick spin-up. We'll see.
Reminds me of Claudette 2009 she really spin up fast.
Quoting russm1:


Agree totally!

Corrupted emails, improper temperature recordings (it goes on and on) are only a couple of reasons why I'm a skeptic. The AGW argument is far from being over. In fact, if there is any consensus on this matter among scientists, it would NOT be in favor of AGW.


Proofs in the pudding my WU friends...
a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013 /02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-finds-majority-of-scie ntists-skeptical-of-global-warming-crisis/" target="_blank" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.forbes.com/si tes/jamestaylor/2013/02/13/peer-reviewed-survey-fi nds-majority-of-scienti_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true"

That study that he goes on and on about... it's actually quite an interest piece of scientific literature. Did you actually read it, or just the opinion piece about it? I'm betting that neither you, nor the opinion piece author from Forbes, actually read it and understood what they were concluding.

Oddly enough, upon reading the actual study, you find out that the opinion piece didn't really represent it very well. Not only was the study not really about asking the simple question "is climate change due to human activity?" it wasn't really representative of climate scientists as a whole. You see, the study was based upon this survey:
http://www.apegga.org/Environment/reports/Climate Changesurveyreport.pdf

This was a survey sent to members of APEGA, the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists, and Geophysicists of Alberta. Not sure if you are aware, but many of Alberta's earth scientists work in the oil/gas extraction industry, and Alberta probably has <1% of all the earth scientists on the planet. The sample was not even really representative of earth scientists as a whole because of how focused it was.
You might also notice upon reading the journal article - which I recommend - that it again wasn't about answering that fundamental question. It was instead about categorizing scientists, from responses to that specific survey, in a way that helped to represent both their scientific and political views (what to do about it) views on climate change.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting LargoFl:
remember months ago when i posted Ice Age stuff..people laughed lol...whats the record low temps now? fear IT more than this global warming..


there are lots of things
that could happen
here is one


good one keeper
Quoting no1der:
Did you even look as far as the paper being cited? It concerns a survey of a group of 1000 professional engineers and geoscientists in Alberta i.e. petroleum and bitumen folk.

Consider instead the stated positions of nearly every national science body and every major professional organization of geoscientists, climatologists and related fields in the world:

Link


I find it highly likely that he did not read it - or any scientific journal article on the topic - to be honest. That's fairly clear from his "Corrupted emails, improper temperature recordings (it goes on and on)" quip.

Gullible people see what they want to see in an opinion article and snap at it before they show one ounce of skepticism to verify the information. It doesn't even matter if the person writing it is notoriously wrong, nor does it matter if the article is completely un-sourced, nor does it matter if the article is sourced but completely misrepresented. Regardless of the case, gullibility leads down the same path.
yay, my wife just passed her dissertation, WU!!!
yeah, for some reason you all need to know, i just got the email ^_^
we're off to Pasadena, CA.. NASA JPL for the post-Doc... no more Minnemike :/
all yellow and less blue colors
Quoting ScottLincoln:

That wasn't months ago, that's now. 10th warmest March on record and you post stuff about an ice age coming, all because 2% of the globe had near-normal temperatures (middle tercile) for on month. That is worth an "LOL!"
one must remember when IT does begin, the cold will seep down from the north, not up from florida..but I for one do NOT..want..an ice age to begin..because IF it ever does..our great grand children IF they are still around will have a totally different world to live in..number one item on their agenda?..where can we grow our food crops etc..
Baseball game in Denver started with a temp of 23 degrees. Typical Denver weather, they are supposed to be 70 by Saturday.

Yesterday, we saw 55 record low temps compared to 3 record high temps as our cold and snowy spring continues.
If this pattern persist this can be an analog year in terms of TRAJECTORIES NOT NUMBERS



This is huge. Massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the East Atlantic and MDR. Tradewinds will be slow to even non existent at times as a cut-off low replaces the position of the subtropical ridge.

GEFS 7-day Zonal Wind Anomaly



GEM ENS looks the same. Both global ensemble keep winds low through the next two weeks. Looks like the CFS forecasts from earlier this month will verify well. I expect SSTAs in the MDR/East Atl (60-15W) to get above 1C, might even push 1.5.

Quoting Minnemike:
yay, my wife just passed her dissertation, WU!!!
yeah, for some reason you all need to know, i just got the email ^_^
we're off to Pasadena, CA.. NASA JPL for the post-Doc... no more Minnemike :/
Awesome! Congratulations to both her and you. But what do you mean "no more Minnemike"? You going away, or changing your name to something more fitting for SoCal?
Quoting TomTaylor:
This is huge. Massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the East Atlantic and MDR. Tradewinds will be slow to even non existent at times as a cut-off low replaces the position of the subtropical ridge.

GEFS 7-day Zonal Wind Anomaly



GEM ENS looks the same. Both global ensemble keep winds low through the next two weeks. Looks like the CFS forecasts from earlier this month will verify well. I expect SSTAs in the MDR/East Atl (60-15W) to get above 1C, might even push 1.5.



Yep. It's amazing how fast the anomalies can jump in a short period of time. Of course, if the cut-off low brings increased cloudiness, then it will slow the warming. However, one thing we shouldn't have to worry about with that pattern is African dust slowing the warming. Other than cloudiness, the warming could be fairly quick and substantial. A pattern like that should also strengthen the tripole signature and further the focus of heat into the deep tropics. It could be quite a nice year for Cape Verde hurricanes and the Caribbean door could finally reopen.
Cold front must be close, top of my WU page shows mid & upper 40s for Spfld & StL, and says we're still upper 50s
And as a general FYI...

Although I don't think I'll be doing a point-by-point of the Washington Times' "90% of climate scientists are actual deniers because it snowed and felt cold outside" article (it's not my job to be skeptical for other people or do their critical thinking), I will provide a few links on actual snowfall data that the article overlooked.

Consider this a starting point for our skeptical individuals to begin their point-by-point critique.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008J CLI2665.1
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/snow.html

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/snow-2/
TomTaylor how persistent is that anomaly forecast to be?
Not weather-related (though it one day could be): here's some fantastic HD footage of the SpaceX Grasshopper's 250m flight test. Awesome technology behind this one:

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
TomTaylor how persistent is that anomaly forecast to be?


I'm not Tom, but through at least the first week of May.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Awesome! Congratulations to both her and you. But what do you mean "no more Minnemike"? You going away, or changing your name to something more fitting for SoCal?
thanks!! well, my projection of her future colleagues has me looking at a major beard chop.. so i'd feel like a poser with the current avatar; sight/locale..
maybe a purple hippo ;)
or per your biggest fans, a pic of Sheldon.. i hear that abysmal program takes place there
Quoting TomTaylor:
This is huge. Massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the East Atlantic and MDR. Tradewinds will be slow to even non existent at times as a cut-off low replaces the position of the subtropical ridge.

GEFS 7-day Zonal Wind Anomaly



GEM ENS looks the same. Both global ensemble keep winds low through the next two weeks. Looks like the CFS forecasts from earlier this month will verify well. I expect SSTAs in the MDR/East Atl (60-15W) to get above 1C, might even push 1.5.




There really isnt any significant differences between the models here.
Flood advisory issued for my area until later in the afternoon:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1123 AM HST TUE APR 23 2013

HIC003-240015-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0075.130423T2123Z-130424T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
1123 AM HST TUE APR 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 215 PM HST

* AT 1112 AM HST...RAIN GAGES IN THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS SHOWED HEAVY
RAIN FALLING AT .57 INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE WHOLE ISLANDS OF OAHU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 215 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2156 15833 2176 15794 2129 15760 2123 15774
2126 15810

$$
DONALDSON
Just thought I would post this..I have noticed a couple of WU weather stations being powered by this Little $25.00 computer..I love my Raspberry Pi the amount of weather related things that can be done with it are vast!

Raspberry Pi Inventor Sets Out To Change The World With $25 Mini-Computer
Quoting Neapolitan:
I lived and worked in the Wind River Range for several years, including a stint at NOLS. (And our home phone was listed in the Lander telephone directory immediately before NOLS founder Paul Petzoldt. Woohoo.) I saw the Lander municipal golf course closed in May because of heavy snow; I saw sleet fall at the Fourth of July rodeo; I saw single-digit temperatures in every month from September to April; I saw nights in the thirties in even June and August. And Lander wasn't even the coldest town in the state; that's Big Piney or Pinedale or West Yellowstone (though both of those are frequently beaten in summer by Alamosa, Colorado, far to the south). So, yes: cold temperatures there aren't anything close to a rarity, not even in months that should be warm.


What yrs did you attend Stanford? Maybe we attended the same classes!
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I find it highly likely that he did not read it - or any scientific journal article on the topic - to be honest. That's fairly clear from his "Corrupted emails, improper temperature recordings (it goes on and on)" quip.



Yes I read it and think it proves the issue of AGW is NOT settled quite well, thank you very much. I'm sure you also read that the research was funded by the Canadian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) Fellowship, Killam Foundation Fellowship, Alberta Innovates – Alberta Water Research Institute, and Engineers Canada.

Guess you just don't like Canadians!
Quoting auburn:
Just thought I would post this..I have noticed a couple of WU weather stations being powered by this Little $25.00 computer..I love my Raspberry Pi the amount of weather related things that can be done with it are vast!

Raspberry Pi Inventor Sets Out To Change The World With $25 Mini-Computer
I've got two. One is being used in a pedestrian way: remotely accessing different networks. But I've got the other attached to a civilian drone as part of a work project I'd rather not get into at the moment. They're great machines--especially for the amazing price.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I've got two. One is being used in a pedestrian way: remotely accessing different networks. But I've got the other attached to a civilian drone as part of a work project I'd rather not get into at the moment. They're great machines--especially for the amazing price.


I had thought about the drone myself..have a friend that has one set up with a pi to keep track of his cattle..the run time isn't great on it though..
180 auburn: Just thought I would post this. I have noticed a couple of WU weather stations being powered by this little $25.00 computer. I love my Raspberry Pi, the amount of weather related things that can be done with it are vast!
183 Neapolitan: I've got two. One is being used in a pedestrian way...But I've got the other attached to a civilian drone...project...I'd rather not get into at the moment

No sense being coy, the "pizza delivery drone pilots wanted" made it obvious what you're up to.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This is just gettin' weird. :)

Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn

Highs Wednesday may be 20 degrees colder across Southeast Texas as a strong cold front sweeps through the area during the morning - Upper 50s to near 60. Fairly high rain chances will remain throughout the day.

Currently, temperatures are only in the 30s in the Texas Panhandle.




Just emptying all the cold air out from up north.
There is a good blob in the EPAC. I think it was the CMC that was bullish a week ago with formation of a TC but it abandoned the idea recently.

Quoting Minnemike:
yay, my wife just passed her dissertation, WU!!!
yeah, for some reason you all need to know, i just got the email ^_^
we're off to Pasadena, CA.. NASA JPL for the post-Doc... no more Minnemike :/



Awesome!

Wait wheres your dissertation thesis?

lol jk
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not weather-related (though it one day could be): here's some fantastic HD footage of the SpaceX Grasshopper's 250m flight test. Awesome technology behind this one:



Space is always relevant on Wunderground.

(That and rocket launches, especially manned missions, are equal to Super Bowl Sunday for Floridians)
Amazing warm pool there off the FL panhandle and a little to the West there. That would be a bad setup for a storm moving north toward the coast there if that pool stays and when it heats up more as the year goes on.
In reference to my above post, it seems like in the last few years the warm pool (eddy) in the Gulf has set up more to the West near Louisiana with the cold pools setting up near the FL panhandle. Let's see if the current different pattern stays in contrast from the past few years.
Quoting stormchaser19:

2005

2013


Not even close in comparison there.
Quoting Civicane49:


If this CFS forecast is verified,Nino regions are going to cool much more!!!
All of these floods were no doubt caused by global warming....if only idiots like myself could see this.

Before man made global warming, which is desperately searching for that vaunted consensus, these kinds of floods NEVER happened. That's right...they never happened. Yeah, Indians just built their villages right next to rivers and nothing ever happened because evil man wasn't causing global warming way back when. Yeah, like way back when Galileo was told he was wrong about what he thought. I'm sure the learned men back then were in 100% consenus on the earth being the center of the universe.

What you are witnessing is the result of sheer stupidity...the result of building in known flood plains. I wonder why they are called 100 year flood plains? I mean, did global warming start 100 years ago? Did they have satellite data from back then? Doesn't matter.

Go to my blog to answer this question=Greek names in 2013?
I posted so late-night that ya probably didn't see this, so...
273 TropicalAnalystwx13: Ran across this earlier:
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high...
Anybody believe it?

I don't see any correlation that lends plausibility to the idea.

Quoting aspectre:

Your graphs are for the whole North Atlantic. The quote mentions only Gulf and Carribean. They cite a possible mechanism which gives it some plausibility. I have no clue whether the data supports it or not. I also don't know how large an effect there might be compared to other factors. The article seems to be behind a pay wall.
Within the last 10 days...

Last night's storm:


And the one before that:


And the one before that:




News from the NWS Office in Duluth:

Top 3 Snowiest Aprils
1. 31.6" in 1950
2. 24.4" in 1961
3. 23.7" in 1983

As of 1 am CDT April 23rd, 2013....51.0" (1st)


Top 5 Snowiest Years
1. 135.4" in 1995-1996
2. 131.8" in 1949-1950
3. 128.2" in 1996-1997
4. 121.0" in 1968-1969
5. 117.1" in 1988-1989

As of 7 am CDT April 23rd, 2013....129.4" (3rd)

Quoting russm1:


Yes I read it and think it proves the issue of AGW is NOT settled quite well, thank you very much. I'm sure you also read that the research was funded by the Canadian Centre for Corporate Social Responsibility, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) Fellowship, Killam Foundation Fellowship, Alberta Innovates %u2013 Alberta Water Research Institute, and Engineers Canada.

Guess you just don't like Canadians!

I guess if you did actually read it, yet came to this conclusion seemingly at odds with the actual paper and the authors' conclusions, the issue wasn't in reading it but may instead lie in reading comprehension.

If you think a non-random survey of only-sorta-related-to-climate-science scientists in one of largest oil/gas extraction regions of the world constitutes a representative sample of climate science and should be considered for further study on what climate scientists think, then I'm not really sure what to say. That concept is just plain silly.

If you think a paper that set out to group people from an individual, non-represenative survey - not to actually sample and extrapolate their opinions but to describe and study their worldviews - should be used as a conclusive report that samples and extrapolates opinions to the world's scientists, then I'm not really sure what to say. That's another concept that is just plain silly.

It still doesn't seem like you read the paper. Maybe you should read it again? If there are confusing parts perhaps you should contact the authors for clarification? If you keep making conclusions like those above, actual scientists are going have a hard time taking you seriously and will be, well, skeptical.
Quoting bappit:

Your graphs are for the whole North Atlantic. The quote mentions only Gulf and Carribean. They cite a possible mechanism which gives it some plausibility. I have no clue whether the data supports it or not. I also don't know how large an effect there might be compared to other factors. The article seems to be behind a pay wall.


I don't think this (below) is the same paper, so these authors seem to have been busy with this link recently. Here's their last paper (October 2012) dealing with the spatial distribution of hurricane counts as a function of SSN. Quite interesting.

Link
Quoting aspectre:
I posted so late-night that ya probably didn't see this, so...
273 TropicalAnalystwx13: Ran across this earlier:
The authors report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to solar activity. The relationship results from fewer intense tropical cyclones over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico when sunspot numbers are high...
Anybody believe it?

I don't see any correlation that lends plausibility to the idea.


The paper's abstract indicates that the link is between solar activity and tropical activity in the Gulf and Caribbean. You'd probably need a subset of your tropical Atlantic data to really make a fair comparison.


This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear.
Good Evening..

Maybe I am late on this or maybe I just wasnt paying attention but did the TCFA page always have a 0-24 hour or 0-48 hour window tropical cyclone probability??



Quoting CybrTeddy:


Space is always relevant on Wunderground.

(That and rocket launches, especially manned missions, are equal to Super Bowl Sunday for Floridians)



We live in a great state, we have NASA and the NHC, and we also have FSU meteorology ;)
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Evening..

Maybe I am late on this or maybe I just wasnt paying attention but did the TCFA page always have a 0-24 hour or 0-48 hour window tropical cyclone probability??





Yeah,I see the change the image of all his products!!!
Be careful...

Beware the scammers targeting academics
BY:VAL COLIC-PEISKER From: The Australian August 05, 2012 2:07PM


MY alarm bells went off a few months ago when my research student received two "no changes required" reviews, only three weeks after she had made her first submission to a refereed journal.

A short and flattering review is usually a case of a lazy referee. In this case it was more sinister: fake reviews. The editor's letter also asked for a $200 submission fee.

It is easy enough to start a phony journal in the internet jungle, a great playground for scammers of all sorts. But the journal in point, International Journal of Business and Social Science, was listed on the Australian Research Council's 2012 ERA list of refereed journals.

The fake reviews, containing grammatical errors, were signed by a professor of economics from Radford University, US. Upon inquiry, he told me he did not sign the editorial decision and that his academic identity was used by the scam journal without his permission. A couple of months later, another call for papers from a suspicious-looking journal reached my inbox. The International Journal of Business and Social Research was apparently the extension to a successful business model of IJBSS which has published 35 refereed articles in each monthly issue since 2009. On the website I found the editor's contact details. This time a Stanford University academic. The reply was "The editor? No way."


Refereed publishing is one of the main pillars of the academic profession. A thorough peer review is what distinguishes it and justifies its claim to scientific authority.

It seems that the pillars are increasingly shaky.

Fake journals are a market response to the high and unrealistic pressure on Western academics to churn out original scientific publication. Under pressure, they can become complicit in a scam that eases the pressure. Academics from all over the world have published in IJBSS. Earlier this year, Sydney University based its redundancy list on an arbitary number of refereed publications. The key concern here is that IJBSS's scam was legitimised by being on the list of recognised journals put together by the peak national research body.
...
Link for #211


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/ opinion/beware-the-scammers-targeting-academics/st ory-e6frgcko-1226439754177

The International Scholarly Research Network (ISRN) is not really a network. Instead, it's a publisher, or more precisely, a publisher's imprint. ISRN is a brand of Hindawi Publishing Corporation based in Cairo, Egypt.

Hindawi publishes 86 titles under this brand, and the titles all begin with the initialism ISRN. Alphabetically, the first is ISRN Agronomy, and the last is ISRN Zoology. The journals all fall into the areas of science, technology and medicine.

This imprint is not on my list (above) of questionable publishers, but I am monitoring its progress. ISRN uses the gold open-access model of financing scholarly publishing. That is, it charges authors upon acceptance of an article. The normal fee for ISRN titles is US $500 per article, ...


http://scholarlyoa.com/2012/01/26/all-about-the-i nternational-scholarly-research-network/
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah,I see the change the image of all his products!!!


Okay thanks, because I didnt remember any of this stuff..

it looks like they redid the whole page..will make for some interesting maps this hurricane season..

Quoting bjrabbit:
All of these floods were no doubt caused by global warming....if only idiots like myself could see this.

Before man made global warming, which is desperately searching for that vaunted consensus, these kinds of floods NEVER happened. That's right...they never happened. Yeah, Indians just built their villages right next to rivers and nothing ever happened because evil man wasn't causing global warming way back when. Yeah, like way back when Galileo was told he was wrong about what he thought. I'm sure the learned men back then were in 100% consenus on the earth being the center of the universe.

What you are witnessing is the result of sheer stupidity...the result of building in known flood plains. I wonder why they are called 100 year flood plains? I mean, did global warming start 100 years ago? Did they have satellite data from back then? Doesn't matter.



No one is saying global warming is causing these floods, instead, a warming planet makes extreme weather events more likely to occur. That is an important distinction. Also, no one is calling you an idiot. The information and science is out there and easily discoverable. A good place to start was yesterday's blog by Dr. Masters.
Quoting Naga5000:


No one is saying global warming is causing these floods, instead, a warming planet makes extreme weather events more likely to occur. That is an important distinction. Also, no one is calling you an idiot. The information and science is out there and easily discoverable. A good place to start was yesterday's blog by Dr. Masters.


Not really true NAGA; MSNBC and like others on the left are saying it's caused by GW/CC. There is mis-information going around NAGA!
216. etxwx

photo credit NASA, ESA, J.-Y. Li (Planetary Science Institute), and the Hubble Comet ISON Imaging Science Team
NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope provides a close-up look of Comet ISON (C/2012 S1), as photographed on April 10, when the comet was slightly closer than Jupiter’s orbit at a distance of 386 million miles from the sun.

Hubble telescope spies incoming Comet ISON
By Irene Klotz
CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida | Tue Apr 23, 2013 7:46pm EDT
(Reuters) - A recently discovered comet, dazzlingly bright even though it is still almost as far away as Jupiter, is racing toward a November rendezvous with the sun, officials said on Tuesday.

If it survives the encounter - and that's a big if - the comet may be visible even in daylight in Earth's skies at the end of the year.


More info at the above links.
Quoting allahgore:


Not really true NAGA; MSNBC and like others on the left are saying it's caused by GW/CC. There is mis-information going around NAGA!


The science does not make that claim. This isn't a discussion about poor journalism; some news outlets are denying the existence of global warming. Your point?
wow!!!
Quoting ScottLincoln:



It still doesn't seem like you read the paper. Maybe you should read it again? If there are confusing parts perhaps you should contact the authors for clarification? If you keep making conclusions like those above, actual scientists are going have a hard time taking you seriously and will be, well, skeptical.


Let me be clear, I read the report and am not confused. You obviously are. Your conjecture was noticed. This group of well qualified scientist, amongst others, are not buying into AGW. Many "actual scientists" take this very seriously and are very skeptical. I believe this is problematic for you. What a shame.
MS River reaching it's peak of over 35'... moderate level that is

The snow and rain from the north (Minnesota) are the main causes of this.
Major drainage...


Four other rivers empty into the MS River north of St. Louis
Quoting allahgore:


Not really true NAGA; MSNBC and like others on the left are saying it's caused by GW/CC. There is mis-information going around NAGA!


what type of event do you need
how large scale would you require
Quoting Naga5000:


The science does not make that claim. This isn't a discussion about poor journalism; some news outlets are denying the existence of global warming. Your point?


I agree with you NAGA but alot of people go by what they see on the news. FOX is extreme on one side and MSNBC is extreme on the other side, plus if you go by POLL data Fox is number 1 and NBC number 2 well it flips back and forth between CNN & NBC for number 2.
EPA on Keystone XL: Significant Climate Impacts from Tar Sands Pipeline

By David Biello | April 23, 2013

In a draft assessment of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, consultants for the U.S. State Department judged that building it would have no significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Why? Because the analysts assumed the tar sands oil would find a way out with or without the new pipeline.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency does not agree. Keystone XL’s ability to carry an additional 830,000 barrels of tar sands oil per day is vital to expanded production of the tarry crude in Alberta. The EPA contends that the analysis by State got the economics all wrong. In particularly the consultants were too optimistic about the ease with which the oil could be moved by railroad rather than pipeline—an alternative already in use. But such tar sands oil transportation alternatives can more than triple the cost of moving crude. State’s report also neglected to consider the potential for congestion on the railroads with an uptick in oil transport, EPA contends. Of course, from a greenhouse gas perspective, transport by pipeline results in fewer emissions than transport by rail, truck or barge.

The bottom line, from a climate perspective: “oil sands crude is significantly more [greenhouse gas] intensive than other crudes, and therefore has potentially large impacts,” wrote EPA’s Cynthia Giles about the State Department’s attempts to assess the full implications of Keystone. “Lifecycle emissions from oil sands crude could be 81 percent greater than the average crude refined in the U.S.,” a difference that can grow “depending on the assumptions made.”
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I guess if you did actually read it, yet came to this conclusion seemingly at odds with the actual paper and the authors' conclusions, the issue wasn't in reading it but may instead lie in reading comprehension.

If you think a non-random survey of only-sorta-related-to-climate-science scientists in one of largest oil/gas extraction regions of the world constitutes a representative sample of climate science and should be considered for further study on what climate scientists think, then I'm not really sure what to say. That concept is just plain silly.

If you think a paper that set out to group people from an individual, non-represenative survey - not to actually sample and extrapolate their opinions but to describe and study their worldviews - should be used as a conclusive report that samples and extrapolates opinions to the world's scientists, then I'm not really sure what to say. That's another concept that is just plain silly.

It still doesn't seem like you read the paper. Maybe you should read it again? If there are confusing parts perhaps you should contact the authors for clarification? If you keep making conclusions like those above, actual scientists are going have a hard time taking you seriously and will be, well, skeptical.



If you ever have time research code green; It's the same concept as code blue. It's real, it happens, it's a Brotherhood. Let's get it all out in the open.
47n91w I didn't know that 1995-96 was also the heaviest snowfall for Duluth. A lot of east coast cities also set records for the most snow that season.

Half hour without comments? Blog hole?
The Role of Ice in the Ocean: Pt. III: Shrinking Ice: Impacts

Link
Yep. Weird spring so far. :)

Aerial and ground mosquito spraying begins

JEFFERSON COUNTY - By Justin Hinton, KFDM News

Jefferson County Mosquito Control crews have begun spraying areas in Southeast Texas for mosquitoes.

The first planes took flight for aerial spraying Monday night. Truck spraying began the previous week.

The director of the group says the weather kept them grounded, making for a later than normal start to the spraying season which typically begins at the beginning of April.

“It's been a lot of cold fronts coming in and the winds have been high, so we haven't really been able to do anything, but there haven't been a lot of mosquitoes to talk about,” Kevin Sexton said.


He says they’ve started to appear in the middle and southern parts of the county and expects more to come to the other parts of the region soon.

Pointing at a map and outlining an area near the Neches River, he said, “This is where they're going to be spraying at.”

Seven trucks will head out around 7 p.m. and finish spraying around 11.
Nice Day here today, was 58.0/81.7F, normal is 52/77F.



Loop
I posted this on my blog already but this is too good not to share.

There was an interesting piece on Science Daily a couple days ago that I just now found. A research group reconstructed temperature over the past 1,000 to 2,000 years for individual continents.


For the present study, "Continental-scale temperature variability during the last two millennia," the researchers drew up temperature curves for large regions at seven continents, using 511 local temperature records. These were based on the analysis of tree rings, pollen, corals, lake and marine sediments, ice cores and stalagmites as well as historical documents.

In most cases the data used were highly resolved, attesting to short-term variations over decades or less, rather than smoothing over centuries. In Africa, there were too few records to accurately determine long-term temperature changes for that continent. Nevertheless, the expansive new dataset will undoubtedly be used in future studies, including for comparisons with the output of climate models used to help project future climate change.

The evolution of temperature across all the continents was noticeably more similar within the hemispheres than between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. "Distinctive periods, such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age stand out, but do not show a globally uniform pattern," says professor Heinz Wanner.

By around 1500 AD temperatures did indeed fall below the long-term mean everywhere. However, in the Arctic, Europe and Asia this temperature drop occurred several decades earlier than in North America and the Southern Hemisphere.


Link
Andrew Revkin's DotEarth blog had that story yesterday--it's a good source for climate science news.
Quoting russm1:


Let me be clear, I read the report and am not confused. You obviously are. Your conjecture was noticed. This group of well qualified scientist, amongst others, are not buying into AGW. Many "actual scientists" take this very seriously and are very skeptical. I believe this is problematic for you. What a shame.

LOL! My advanced degree in the field of environmental science must all be a sham!

Whatever you have to tell yourself, I guess. At this point it's a waste of time to even discuss it further because it's not just that you don't understand the paper and don't understand how extrapolating information in the way you did from the paper is scientifically incorrect... you just dont want to understand it, and are attacking those who do. That's on the same level with arguing with conspiracy theorists - it doesn't matter what you say or how much evidence you have, the sand is just too deep over the head. Good day.
Oh goody my post was removed and for what retarded reason this time I may ask? :) after the insulting post that had come before mine?.And how's to say the admin/mods don't play favorites :)?.Oh yes.Did I dicrectly insult someone?,did I not post something related to the current topic at the time? Sure I put H e double hocky sticks at the end but aplogized in the same post.This has been added to my "something's that I hate at WU list"
and someone before got away with litterally post the s word but with different symbols.Oh yes this place is surel fair.Fair my a___.......
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
47n91w I didn't know that 1995-96 was also the heaviest snowfall for Duluth. A lot of east coast cities also set records for the most snow that season.

Half hour without comments? Blog hole?


There seemed to be a lot of blog holes today.
Quoting Grothar:


There seemed to be a lot of blog holes today.


Yep...I say the same thing
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh goody my post was removed and for what retarded reason this time I may ask? :) after the insulting post that had come before mine?.And how's to say the admin/mods don't play favorites :)?.Oh yes.Did I dicrectly insult someone?,did I not post something related to the current topic at the time? Sure I put H e double hocky sticks at the end but aplogized in the same post.This has been added to my "something's that I hate at WU list"
and someone before got away with litterally post the s word but with different symbols.Oh yes this place is surel fair.Fair my a___.......




watch it that is asking for a bannd there
Quoting Grothar:


There seemed to be a lot of blog holes today.


That was a great tattoo video Grothar. I had seen it before years ago--I thought that one soldier would take off on the stage like a plane on a runway!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


That was a great tattoo video Grothar. I had seen it before years ago--I thought that one soldier would take off on the stage like a plane on a runway!


You realize they were doing that all on ice.
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1h
Two waterspouts were spotted west of Key West. They were in the area for a combined total of 10 minutes.
Minnesota snow from storm Zeus

Quoting Grothar:


You realize they were doing that all on ice.


I did not know that!
Quoting Grothar:


b...bl...blob?!
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting blob.
Quoting Thrawst:


b...bl...blob?!


Makes me want to post the intro of a certain 1958 movie but I won't push it.

Yes, I will.
Quoting Thrawst:


b...bl...blob?!


Just spit it out, Thrawst. :) Yes, it's a blob. I would not be surprised to see an invest out of this.
In case any of you might be wondering to what Brian was referring, I posted the Norwegian Military Drill on my blog. It is all performed on ice. Take a peek between blobs.
This is what I have been mentioning the past few days.

1,2,3 testing testing !!!!


Healthy waves leaving Africa

Quoting stormchaser19:
healthy waves leaving africa


Nah, those are just disturbed areas of convection. Our first tropical wave probably won't emerge for another two or three weeks, as is the typical date for such.
Come on guys. I'll match you image for image.

Guys, just let Taz know that I saw the blob first. lol
Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys. I'll match you image for image.



nothing to worry about...expected to dissipate.
Quoting Grothar:
In case any of you might be wondering to what Brian was referring, I posted the Norwegian Military Drill on my blog. It is all performed on ice. Take a peek between blobs.


Way cool! Precision marching on ice while playing, and tossing rifles with bayonets!
261. SLU
Quoting stormchaser19:
1,2,3 testing testing !!!!




Excellent dry run to test the systems before take off.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


nothing to worry about...expected to dissipate.


That is what my mother-in-law keeps telling Mrs. Grothar about me.
Quoting Grothar:
Guys, just let Taz know that I saw the blob first. lol




you seen nothing 1st



i saw it 1st
Quoting Grothar:


That is what my mother-in-law keeps telling Mrs. Grothar about me.


OUCH!...lol
Quoting DFWdad:


Way cool! Precision marching on ice while playing, and tossing rifles with bayonets!


They perform quite often. I have only seen them a few times, but it is really remarkable. Although Norwegians walking on ice is not all that unusual. I'm glad you liked it.
Quoting Tazmanian:




you seen nothing 1st



i saw it 1st


LOL. How you doing Taz?
Quoting NJWXMAN:
The coldest place in the nation (over the past 24 hours ending at 3 p.m. EST) was Lake Yellowstone, WY with a temp. of -10 F GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE! It is almost May and theres negative temperatures in the US...



XX/XX/XXE
Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys. I'll match you image for image.


Shure is building those cloud tops. I know it's supposed to not do anything to exiting , but with the tropics anything can happen. I'll be keepin an eye on it.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

That's on the same level with arguing with conspiracy theorists - it doesn't matter what you say or how much evidence you have, the sand is just too deep over the head. Good day.


Exactly MY point. Thank you for articulating it so nicely.

I am sorry that so many thousands of scientist and the general population as a whole disagree with you and the IPCC et al. I'm sure it must be frustrating for you but the fact remains, we only want the truth, not political propaganda nonsense. AGW is political and propaganda. If the humans race existence, by some matter of fate, required we raise the average global temp by 3 degrees F in 20 years or perish, we couldn't do it.

Good day to you as well.



Quoting Grothar:


LOL. How you doing Taz?



doing well doing vary well
Quoting NJWXMAN:
The coldest place in the nation (over the past 24 hours ending at 3 p.m. EST) was Lake Yellowstone, WY with a temp. of -10 F GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE! It is almost May and theres negative temperatures in the US...






Quoting hericane96:

Shure is building those cloud tops. I know it's supposed to do anything , but with the tropics anything can happen. I'll be keepin an eye on it.


I just think we will have an early season in both basins. The GFS has backed down on development, but I still track them, just in case.
Quoting Tazmanian:



doing well doing vary well


We hardly talk anymore. Although it looks like it is going to be an early season. I am waiting for the new EURO analysis of the ENSO predictions this week.
Still some heavy showers around my area:

Good night boys and girls. The pill wagon is coming around so I have to get going. Watch those waves, hold on to your MJOS and look out for those ENSO's. Things could get dangerous out there soon.

Natti, Natti.
Quoting Civicane49:
Still some heavy showers around my area:



I still can't get over those insanely large hail stones in Hawaii not too long ago.
Quoting Grothar:


I just think we will have an early season in both basins. The GFS has backed down on development, but I still track them, just in case.


Know what you mean. I'm starving for something to track, even if it's just a blob. LOL. Hurricane season can't come soon enough. As I can seeso far, everthing is shaping up for a wild Hurricane Season.
Good evening, weathergeeks! :) Everyone saddled up and ready, dusted off the old links? ;)

No Saharan dust to speak of, but that Azore's low in the eAtl will suck any dust northwards anyways right now. And, with that and trade winds calming should allow for even warmer SST anomalies in the MDR. Neutral ENSO well into summer, possibly fall? Sounds like trouble.

Just saying hello, look forward to seeing some of the old geeks and following the young, bright supergeeks of prognosticating! :)

Have a good sleep, all! :)
Solar energy may be reaching major breakthrough:


Link
MLC?

oh my.....

gonna be a hip-hop-happenin' year, it seems.
The last.......I'm done

A quick cruise around the worlds oceans.

N-ATL


S-ATL


EPAC


C-PAC


W-PAC


S-PAC


N-IND


S-IND
Hey Aussie, I thought this blog was broken
compare 2012/2013 sst


Quoting overwash12:
If someone were a true scientist,they would still hold a little skepticism in their theory also. Hence the word,( theory). Good point,DFWdad!


That's what scientists do.

It seems the vast majority of people think that scientists come up with some random notion and then proceed to prove that notion correct. That is incorrect, and in fact wouldn't make it through the editors let alone a peer review.

Any idiot can come up with an idea and find absurd evidence to prove his/her position. That's why deniers of any sort can come up with a litany of "proof" that show's they correct. However, this is also why none of them are taken seriously. That's not how the scientific process operates.

The scientific process begins with a hypothesis to explain a phenomena, then seeks to DISPROVE that hypothesis. Yes, you read that correctly. Scientists always assume that THEY ARE WRONG from the start. A good scientists will think of many different ways to disprove their hypothesis. If they can't disprove it, then they write it up and send it to their peers (peer review) in the field to see if they can disprove the hypothesis. If after review the hypothesis still stands then it becomes a theory.

Scientists are skeptical by profession.

Quoting NJWXMAN:
The coldest place in the nation (over the past 24 hours ending at 3 p.m. EST) was Lake Yellowstone, WY with a temp. of -10 F GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE! It is almost May and theres negative temperatures in the US...


And yet some areas in Greenland and Siberia are seeing 10-20F positive anomalies. The US != whole planet.
Statement as of 10:13 PM CDT on April 23, 2013


... Record breaking snow at Wichita...

Wichita Mid Continent Airport measured 0.2 inches of snow this
evening. This is the latest measurable Spring snow for Wichita
since record keeping began in 1889. The previous record was 20
April 1918 when a tenth of an inch was recorded.
Quoting LargoFl:
one must remember when IT does begin, the cold will seep down from the north, not up from florida..but I for one do NOT..want..an ice age to begin..because IF it ever does..our great grand children IF they are still around will have a totally different world to live in..number one item on their agenda?..where can we grow our food crops etc..


Considering the global average temperature is around the highest it's been during the holocene, I don't think you have much to worry about as far as an ice age. Especially since the cold air that has been hovering over our continent has been displaced by warm air in other parts of the world. Look at a global temperature anomaly map and you'll see where the warm air has been sitting.
Quoting allahgore:


Not really true NAGA; MSNBC and like others on the left are saying it's caused by GW/CC. There is mis-information going around NAGA!


Relying on news outlets for accurate science coverage is like relying on your auto-mechanic for a prostate exam.

These days the only way to get reliable scientific information is by going to the source.
Quoting russm1:


Exactly MY point. Thank you for articulating it so nicely.

I am sorry that so many thousands of scientist and the general population as a whole disagree with you and the IPCC et al. I'm sure it must be frustrating for you but the fact remains, we only want the truth, not political propaganda nonsense. AGW is political and propaganda. If the humans race existence, by some matter of fate, required we raise the average global temp by 3 degrees F in 20 years or perish, we couldn't do it.

Good day to you as well.





^ yes.
long night with friends here...
anyway, Gnite, I'll be sleepwalking for work tomorrow at 9 AM

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
long night with friends here...
anyway, Gnite, I'll be sleepwalking for work tomorrow at 9 AM



Good night, Max.
Good Morning Folks!..........................
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. We have a 50% chance of rain today, it's pouring. We've dropped from 72 degrees to 66 already. Guess I'll dig out the rain boots for today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: sausage and egg casserole, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
Record Cold in the Plains for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning

Temperatures reminiscent of winter have spread into the central U.S. behind a strong cold front. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s as far south as the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Tuesday night. Several record lows are expected to be broken overnight. Sensitive outdoor plants could be harmed by this hard freeze.
7 day for the Tampa Bay area...............
Looks like flood warnings and watches go down the whole length of the Mississippi river..stay safe folks.
Ah oh, lights starting to blink. I have the lantern next to me. Good thing I already got the dogs out.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Ah oh, lights starting to blink. I have the lantern next to me. Good thing I already got the dogs out.
yes stay safe, this is a pretty strong front
.NOW...
THROUGH 6 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
STRONGEST STORM NEAR BUNA IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS GUSTING TO
45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND
AN INCH AN HOUR AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM WILL BE INTO
LONGVILLE, RAGLEY, GILLIS, AND TOPSY BY 530 AM...REEVES BY 6 AM.
ELSEWHERE...THE FRONT AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND WILL REACH AS FAR EAST
AS SULPHUR AND LAKE CHARLES BY 6 AM. ALEXANDRIA CAN ALSO EXPECT TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 6 AM AS WELL.

$$

SWEENEY
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Active weather is expected today as a trough is just north of PR. Scattered showers and also thunderstorms are expected but as the trough moves away on Thursday,the weather will improve by then.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED APR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...DECREASING BY
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...SPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TJSJ 24/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.36
INCHES...BUT THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.70 OR EVEN MORE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA. THESE FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN OVER
THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DRYING TREND AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY
A RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES TIL
24/13Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID-LOW LEVEL CLDS WILL BRING PASSING
SHRA ACTIVITY AND BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ISLANDS TIL AT
LEAST 24/15Z. FM 24/17Z-25/00Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY OVR N CENTRAL AND W-NW PR...WITH OCNL STREAMER CONVECTION OFF
THE REST OF THE ISLANDS AND VCTY EL YUNQUE PR. DCR CLDS AND SHRA
ACTIVITY OVR ISLANDS AND LOCAL FA AFT 25/00Z. LLVL WINDS FM E TO SE
10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG LGT AND VRB UP TO FL150...BCMG FM W AND
INCR W/HT ABV...WITH MAX WND OF 65-70 KTS NR FL350.

&&

.MARINE...ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 40 40 20 50
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 30 20 50
In the last 45 minutes the temps dropped again from 66 to 57. So far the temps dropped 15 degrees since I got up. Looks like the worst of the storm has passed. Had to get off computer for a little bit as the storm came over. At least I don't have to water the garden before I leave for work. : )
zerohedge‏@zerohedge1 min
Taiwan government reports first case of avian flu
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Active weather is expected today as a trough is just north of PR. Scattered showers and also thunderstorms are expected but as the trough moves away on Thursday,the weather will improve by then.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED APR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS... MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...DECREASING BY
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...SPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TJSJ 24/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.36
INCHES...BUT THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.70 OR EVEN MORE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA. THESE FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN OVER
THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DRYING TREND AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
OVERALL...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY... FOLLOWED BY
A RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES TIL
24/13Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID-LOW LEVEL CLDS WILL BRING PASSING
SHRA ACTIVITY AND BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ISLANDS TIL AT
LEAST 24/15Z. FM 24/17Z-25/00Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY OVR N CENTRAL AND W-NW PR...WITH OCNL STREAMER CONVECTION OFF
THE REST OF THE ISLANDS AND VCTY EL YUNQUE PR. DCR CLDS AND SHRA
ACTIVITY OVR ISLANDS AND LOCAL FA AFT 25/00Z. LLVL WINDS FM E TO SE
10-15 KTS BLO FL100...BCMG LGT AND VRB UP TO FL150...BCMG FM W AND
INCR W/HT ABV...WITH MAX WND OF 65-70 KTS NR FL350.

&&

.MARINE...ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 40 40 20 50
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 30 20 50
Hopefully i'll get something :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hey Aussie, I thought this blog was broken


Hey Max. Why did you think the blog was broken?
When I got up it was 72 degrees. The storms and cold front hit. It's now 50 degrees. When they said the temps would drop, they weren't kidding.

Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday. Aussie, have a great Thursday!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
When I got up it was 72 degrees. The storms and cold front hit. It's now 51 degrees. When they said the temps would drop, they weren't kidding.

Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday. Aussie, have a great Thursday!


Have a good day. :) Dropped from 71 to 49 here.
318. VR46L
Front moving through

319. VR46L
Nextsat Composite Sat Image

320. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!
Models suggest the tropics are going to come alive next week. Look at the EURO!!



NW Caribbean
Did manage to get a little rain. Was hoping when the wind shifted maybe these allergies would stop. No luck there so far. :)


Apr 24, 2013 6:25 AM
Temp
48.6°F

N4mph
Hi: 71°F
Lo: 49°F
Rain: 0.32"
Gust: NNW 18
Wind Chill: 47°F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 49°F
Avg Wind: 5 NNW
Pressure: 30.04"
Rain/Month: 4.61"
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Did manage to get a little rain. Was hoping when the wind shifted maybe these allergies would stop. No luck there so far. :)


Apr 24, 2013 6:25 AM
Temp
48.6°F

N4mph
Hi: 71°F
Lo: 49°F
Rain: 0.32"
Gust: NNW 18
Wind Chill: 47°F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 49°F
Avg Wind: 5 NNW
Pressure: 30.04"
Rain/Month: 4.61"
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM



Geesh 48 in SE TX in almost May! WOW
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting feature there in the E-Pac
327. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models suggest the tropics are going to come alive next week. Look at the EURO!!



NW Caribbean


Man really trying to see what you are seeing all I see is A couple of tiny low pressures ....I guess its more about how they appear over the next few runs....
Quoting VR46L:


Man really trying to see what you are seeing all I see is A couple of tiny low pressures ....I guess its more about how they appear over the next few runs....


Look at the NW Caribbean. An area of low pressure forming at the end of the run in the NW Caribbean. CMC has it over FL.

Quoting LargoFl:
Post# 303

7 day for the Tampa Bay area...............


Good morning Largo and Vr46L Scott ATHome Aussie and all at WU this am..
Something not quite right with my forecast from WU and Intellicast..
Wu has me at 3 degree high temp variance for the next 7 days..
Intellicast has me at 2 degree high temp variance for the next 10..
By looking at the temp diffs on this approaching front, I can't believe that I'll not see but these small variances..
50% chance of rain today..
If the temps don't vary but this small amout for the next 7-10 days, I'll , well I guess I'll go fly a kite..Lol..
Wettest April for Chicago

There was .70 inches of rain at Chicago's O'Hare Airport on Tuesday April 23. This brings the monthly total for April to 8.54 inches, which is a new monthly rainfall record. Here are Chicago's top 5 wettest Aprils:

1. 2013 8.54 inches
2. 1947 8.33 inches
3. 1975 7.84 inches
4. 1909 7.73 inches
5. 1983 7.69 inches

Rockford had 0.40 inches of rain Tuesday, which brings the monthly total to 7.94 inches. This is the third wettest April for Rockford. Here are Rockford's top 5 wettest Aprils:

1. 1973 9.92 inches
2. 1964 8.17 inches
3. 2013 7.94 inches
4. 1999 7.77 inches
5. 1927 7.12 inches
A tornado watch as been issued for southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi, including the New Orleans area.
WOUS64 KWNS 241135
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

TORNADO WATCH 137 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-005-007-009-033-037-039-045-047-051-055-057 -063-071-075-
077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-11 3-117-121-125-
241800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0137.130424T1140Z-130424T1800Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION
AVOYELLES EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA
EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA


MSC005-045-109-113-147-157-241800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0137.130424T1140Z-130424T1800Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AMITE HANCOCK PEARL RIVER
PIKE WALTHALL WILKINSON


GMZ435-530-534-241800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0137.130424T1140Z-130424T1800Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

VERMILION BAY

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

LAKE BORGNE

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...
Quoting aislinnpaps:
When I got up it was 72 degrees. The storms and cold front hit. It's now 50 degrees. When they said the temps would drop, they weren't kidding.

Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday. Aussie, have a great Thursday!

It's a very special day down here in Australia and New Zealand. ANZAC Day. ANZAC stands for Australian New Zealand Army Corps. The day we remember those whom have gone to war to fight for freedom and never came home, also to remember those who did make it home.
334. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Look at the NW Caribbean. An area of low pressure forming at the end of the run CMC has it over FL.



I guess Its something to watch out for .... but it is the CMC and its lowest pressure 1009mb... will hardly bring ya a shower .. but its first showing, so I guess its too soon to discount ...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Geesh 48 in SE TX in almost May! WOW
Well, Houston has seen many May temps in the low 40s. In fact, the coolest June temperature ever there was 52. Now that would truly be worthy of a "WOW". ;-)

Nice here in Naples: mid-60s, looking at the mid-80s. I'll happily take that...
Today is going to be an awesome day. I have my NWS job shadow at the NWS Detroit/Pontiac today. I am very excited for it. I'll, hopefully, be writing a blog about my experience latter today. This also means I don't have to go to school today. Today can't get much better.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's a very special day down here in Australia and New Zealand. ANZAC Day. ANZAC stands for Australian New Zealand Army Corps. The day we remember those whom have gone to war to fight for freedom and never came home, also to remember those who did make it home.


A respectful and honorable day for you all Aussie..
Hats off to you..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, Houston has seen many May temps in the low 40s. In fact, the coolest June temperature ever there was 52. Now that would truly be worthy of a "WOW". ;-)

Nice here in Naples: mid-60s, looking at the mid-80s. I'll happily take that...


I hear ya Nea! This Ole Boy doesn't like cold weather. Good morning!
Quoting wxchaser97:
Today is going to be an awesome day. I have my NWS job shadow at the NWS Detroit/Pontiac today. I am very excited for it. I'll, hopefully, be writing a blog about my experience latter today. This also means I don't have to go to school today. Today can't get much better.


Congrats and look alive wx!!
"Scientific conclusions derive from an understanding of basic laws supported by laboratory experiments, observations of nature, and mathematical and computer modeling. Like all human beings, scientists make mistakes, but the scientific process is designed to find and correct them. This process is inherently adversarial%u2014 scientists build reputations and gain recognition not only for supporting conventional wisdom, but even more so for demonstrating that the scientific consensus is wrong and that there is a better explanation. That's what Galileo, Pasteur, Darwin, and Einstein did. But when some conclusions have been thoroughly and deeply tested, questioned, and examined, they gain the status of "well- established theories" and are often spoken of as "facts."

For instance, there is compelling scientific evidence that our planet is about 4.5bn years old (the theory of the origin of Earth), that our universe was born from a single event about 14bn years ago (the Big Bang theory), and that today's organisms evolved from ones living in the past (the theory of evolution). Even as these are overwhelmingly accepted by the scientific community, fame still awaits anyone who could show these theories to be wrong. Climate change now falls into this category: there is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies and the ecosystems on which we depend."

Letter published in Science, May 7, 2010 from 255 members of the National Academy of Sciences.
This cool weather seems to be locked in for the next couple of weeks (except for the SW US & New England).

6-10


8-14
WWUS40 KWNS 241143
WWP7

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

WT 0137
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 60%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.



DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF TSTMS ALONG SW LA COLD FRONT HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 2 HRS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM UPR
IMPULSE. AREA VWP DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND/THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN LOW-LVL
UPLIFT TO OVERCOME CIN. WITH LOW-LVL FLOW FAIRLY CONFLUENT AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OF STORMS...AND POSSIBLY FOR ISOLD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF EXISTING SQLN. LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR BEFORE UPR IMPULSE SWEEPS E
BEYOND LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS LATER TODAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Quoting pcola57:


A respectful and honorable day for you all Aussie..
Hats off to you..

I'll be at the Dawn service at 4:30am. It will be chilly but worth it to pay respect to those whom have made this country free.
Quoting WDEmobmet: Post# 343
WWUS40 KWNS 241143
WWP7

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

WT 0137
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 60%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7.



DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF TSTMS ALONG SW LA COLD FRONT HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 2 HRS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WAA DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM UPR
IMPULSE. AREA VWP DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND/THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN LOW-LVL
UPLIFT TO OVERCOME CIN. WITH LOW-LVL FLOW FAIRLY CONFLUENT AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OF STORMS...AND POSSIBLY FOR ISOLD DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF EXISTING SQLN. LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR BEFORE UPR IMPULSE SWEEPS E
BEYOND LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS LATER TODAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.



Good morning WDE..
Thanks for the tornado watch probable issuance in your post..
I get all of it except the part I highlighted..
Help??..Lol.. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott: Post# 342
This cool weather seems to be locked in for the next couple of weeks (except for the SW US).

6-10


8-14


I'll belive it when I see it Scott..
No harm intended.. :)
I believe I'm unable to be that stable temp wise here..
Quoting Luisport:
zerohedge%u200F@zerohedge1 min
Taiwan government reports first case of avian flu


It's a Taiwanese man who visited Shanghai. Still no human cases originating beyond a few provinces in eastern China.
Some patchy fog this am at the beach..

Quoting pcola57:


I'll belive it when I see it Scott..
No harm intended.. :)
I believe I'm unable to be that stable temp wise here..


The cooler weather across the south isn't because of a cold front but because of clouds and rain. Look at the 6-10 GFS ensemble precip accumm.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, Houston has seen many May temps in the low 40s. In fact, the coolest June temperature ever there was 52. Now that would truly be worthy of a "WOW". ;-)

Nice here in Naples: mid-60s, looking at the mid-80s. I'll happily take that...




The latest Spring date in which a temperature of 40 or lower was recorded at BPT was April 25, 1910: 36 degrees.

We got close to this one at the Beaumont/Port Arthur airport the other day with a record low of 40 degrees. Not supposed to get that low coming up. But this year we still might have more fronts on the way. Might see a cool May.
Quoting pcola57:


Good morning WDE..
Thanks for the tornado watch probable issuance in your post..
I get all of it except the part I highlighted..
Help??..Lol.. :)

CIN is convective inhibition, the fancy term for the cap. The cap is warm-air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from growing into strong to severe ones, and sometimes the cap doesn't even allow showers/thunderstorms at all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CIN is convective inhibition, the fancy term for the cap. The cap is warm-air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from growing into strong to severe ones, and sometimes the cap doesn't even allow showers/thunderstorms at all.


The Cap is what has busted our last 2 moderate risk outlooks.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The cooler weather across the south isn't because of a cold front but because of clouds and rain. Look at the 6-10 GFS ensemble precip accumm.



I gotcha on the precip and clouds Scott..
Thats one of the reasons I believe my temps should vary more than normal for me here at this time of the year..
The Jet Stream analysis is very iffy at the time of this post..
(can't post image due to paywall.. :(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Post# 351

CIN is convective inhibition, the fancy term for the cap. The cap is warm-air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from growing into strong to severe ones, and sometimes the cap doesn't even allow showers/thunderstorms at all.


Thank you TA..
That helped me tons.. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Look at the NW Caribbean. An area of low pressure forming at the end of the run in the NW Caribbean. CMC has it over FL.



The 00z Euro has it too but very weak low there. I would wait for more runs from the models to see if they drop it or not.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




CIN is convective inhibition, the fancy term for the cap. The cap is warm-air aloft that prevents thunderstorms from growing into strong to severe ones, and sometimes the cap doesn't even allow showers/thunderstorms at all.


Quoting pcola57:


Thank you TA..
That helped me tons.. :)


Thanks TA, learn something new everyday... Good Morning to you too pcola, I myself, was wondering the same
Quoting LargoFl:
Looks like flood warnings and watches go down the whole length of the Mississippi river..stay safe folks.

I think you might be seeing some Flood Advisories mixed in. We only have a few points along the lower Mississippi River that are expected to exceed flood stage:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lowerohio,lowerm ississippi,andlowerarkansasrivers

Could change with additional rainfall upstream.
CMC 1005MB
Ok..off to work on my blog..
BBL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models suggest the tropics are going to come alive next week. Look at the EURO!!



NW Caribbean


well alright now!

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models suggest the tropics are going to come alive next week. Look at the EURO!!



NW Caribbean


Remember i posted last week about what the CFS was showing with a Low in the Carib. Could it become true?
look..at the week after tomorrow..wow.............
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The 00z Euro has it too but very weak low there. I would wait for more runs from the models to see if they drop it or not.


good morning
umm does GFS show anything and what about the NOGAP is that showing anything lets check

also nice blob in EPAC
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I think you might be seeing some Flood Advisories mixed in. We only have a few points along the lower Mississippi River that are expected to exceed flood stage:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lowerohio,lowerm ississippi,andlowerarkansasrivers

Could change with additional rainfall upstream.


Maybe I'm reading it wrong but that is the current river levels...4-24. Says nothing about the crest traveling down river that I can see.
Quoting BobChecks:
There was an interesting piece on Science Daily a couple days ago that I just now found. A research group reconstructed temperature over the past 1,000 to 2,000 years for individual continents.


For the present study, "Continental-scale temperature variability during the last two millennia," the researchers drew up temperature curves for large regions at seven continents, using 511 local temperature records. These were based on the analysis of tree rings, pollen, corals, lake and marine sediments, ice cores and stalagmites as well as historical documents.

In most cases the data used were highly resolved, attesting to short-term variations over decades or less, rather than smoothing over centuries. In Africa, there were too few records to accurately determine long-term temperature changes for that continent. Nevertheless, the expansive new dataset will undoubtedly be used in future studies, including for comparisons with the output of climate models used to help project future climate change.

The evolution of temperature across all the continents was noticeably more similar within the hemispheres than between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. "Distinctive periods, such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age stand out, but do not show a globally uniform pattern," says professor Heinz Wanner.

By around 1500 AD temperatures did indeed fall below the long-term mean everywhere. However, in the Arctic, Europe and Asia this temperature drop occurred several decades earlier than in North America and the Southern Hemisphere.


Link



At RealClimate, Dr. Darrell Kaufman was more definitive, stating:

"Interestingly, temperatures did not fluctuate uniformly among all regions at multi-decadal to centennial scales. For example, there were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age."
368. VR46L
Early storms in LA this morning..

Hey StormPro, havent seen you in a long time.
30s and 40s this deep into Texas more than half-way through meteorological spring? I am so over this.

Quoting FunnelVortex:
Hey StormPro, havent seen you in a long time.

Hey there FunnelV and all..I have been super busy but I'm back to atleast chiming in every now and again. Watching the skies here in NOLA today.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
30s and 40s this deep into Texas more than half-way through meteorological spring? I am so over this.



Much of the Central US feels the same as you do. Brutal for late April!

also nice blob off W coast of Africa around 5N 18W

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models suggest the tropics are going to come alive next week. Look at the EURO!!



NW Caribbean


If it was late May I would have an interest in the NW Caribbean. It is only April so it's hard for me to pay attention to it.
very well could be our first tropical wave
Good Morning/Evening.

Lively times on here.

DFW, there is a link between warmer air and more floods. That isn't being slick, that is knowing physics of air moisture capacity and looking at the statistics that show an increase in heaviest precipitation events in the NE. That is to say, the temperatures ARE warmer and there IS more flooding.

Warm water does cause coral bleaching. When the water is too hot, the algae part of the coral leaves and eventually the animal part of the coral dies without it.
Quoting StormPro:

Hey there FunnelV and all..I have been super busy but I'm back to atleast chiming in every now and again. Watching the skies here in NOLA today.


Here is Wausau, WI, we are going to get above 55 degrees for the first time later this week. And it looks like this warmup is gonna stick.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
very well could be our first tropical wave


Do you know when the wave train typically starts? It seems awful early to get a tropical wave.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


If it was late May I would have an interest in the NW Caribbean. It is only April so it's hard for me to pay attention to it.


well late April/early May developments is not unheard of
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


well late April/early May developments is not unheard of


You can even get developments in Winter.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Do you know when the wave train typically starts? It seems awful early to get a tropical wave.

yeah but it not the first time its been early I think I remember seeing one in mid April one time don't remember the year but I do remember Mid April

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NATCHEZ AFFECTING CONCORDIA...ADAMS AND
WILKINSON COUNTIES/PARISHES
385. VR46L
World Weather in one Image 2 GMT

I'm very skeptical of the models showing anything this time of year in the caribbean.In order for anything to develop down there it would have to be a ridge building over the U.S and the jet stream into canada.
CMC and Euro looking very interesting and now some of the GFS Ensembles at 240HR!

240HR
I'll beleive it when I see it.That's all I've got to say.Probably a invest at best like last year in February.
CMC Ensembles
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


well late April/early May developments is not unheard of


I guess anything is possible especially since we are in a time of extreme weather events.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


You can even get developments in Winter.


well if you count 05 season and 03 season though one was late season and one was early season

December 30 1954 Hurricane Alice
April 20 2003 TS Ana
December 30 2005 TS Zeta
May 9 2007 STS Andrea

but look at the past few early season years

May 19 2012
May 28 2009
May 31 2008
May 09 2007
April 20 2003
393. beell
Maybe a good one to bookmark for easterly wave watching. Sometimes possible to identify wave passage over a particular point by a SE to NE NE to SE wind shift and an uptick in RH from the surface up to 600-700mb.

Upper-Air Time Section Analyses


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC045-055-099-101-113-241400-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0034.130424T1305Z-130424T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
805 AM CDT WED APR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...NEW IBERIA...JEANERETTE...AVERY ISLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...ST. MARTINVILLE...CATAHOULA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES CYPREMORT POINT...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 805 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...10 MILES WEST OF ST.
MARTINVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HENRY BY 810 AM CDT...
COTEAU...CADE...JEFFERSON ISLAND AND DELCAMBRE BY 815 AM CDT...
ST. MARTINVILLE BY 820 AM CDT...
ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT BY 825 AM CDT...
CATAHOULA BY 830 AM CDT...
NEW IBERIA AND AVERY ISLAND BY 835 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

&&
This is only one model run though.Let's not get excited.You know how many ghost storms the models like to spin up and the low pressure was hardly noticable.But if it did happen thank goodness to stop all that foolish arguing..opps I should prepare for my comment to get removed right because I'm disagreeing/being sensible?.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
CMC and Euro looking very interesting and now some of the GFS Ensembles at 240HR!

240HR


can you send me links to that
Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


can you send me links to that
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I think you might be seeing some Flood Advisories mixed in. We only have a few points along the lower Mississippi River that are expected to exceed flood stage:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lowerohio,lowerm ississippi,andlowerarkansasrivers

Could change with additional rainfall upstream.
Quoting StormPro:


Maybe I'm reading it wrong but that is the current river levels...4-24. Says nothing about the crest traveling down river that I can see.

Do you see the color-coded boxes? The inner box is the current stage - green is below flood stage and the other colors are the flood categories. The outer box indicates our forecasted crest stage. Most of the points along the lower Mississippi have green for both boxes, indicating that most of our forecast points are not expected to reach flood stage at this time.

You might also find a text river summary product helpful:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=lmrfc-mississipp iandohioriverforecast
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

good morning
umm does GFS show anything and what about the NOGAP is that showing anything lets check

also nice blob in EPAC

The NOGAPS is now known as the NAVGEM
Quoting AussieStorm:

The NOGAPS is now known as the NAVGEM

yeah thanks I kinda figured that out when I went on to model page and saw it in place of NOGAPS
Quoting VR46L: Post# 385
World Weather in one Image 2 GMT



Awesome !!
Thanks for that image VR46L.. :)
( Good Morinin')
Quoting beell:
Maybe a good one to bookmark for easterly wave watching. Sometimes possible to identify wave passage over a particular point by a SE to NE NE to SE wind shift and an uptick in RH from the surface up to 600-700mb.

Upper-Air Time Section Analyses


Re: possible wave in Caribbean next week, African wave train, etc. -- remember that PR posted satellite images of 2 separate spinning waves roughly east of Puerto Rico/Leewards within the last month. Very little convection on either of those lows, but they were perfect spirals and spinning like tops....
Quoting beell: Post# 393
Maybe a good one to bookmark for easterly wave watching. Sometimes possible to identify wave passage over a particular point by a SE to NE NE to SE wind shift and an uptick in RH from the surface up to 600-700mb.

Upper-Air Time Section Analyses




Very interesting page beell..
Bookmarked..
Thanks.. :)
And what date/day is this suppose to happen?.(The storm).
folks in New Orleans plse stay alert ................
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting washingtonian115: Post# 395
This is only one model run though.Let's not get excited.You know how many ghost storms the models like to spin up and the low pressure was hardly noticable.But if it did happen thank goodness to stop all that foolish arguing..opps I should prepare for my comment to get removed right because I'm disagreeing/being sensible?.


Good Morning Washi..
If your comment is removed then WU is getting soft..
Disagreements and honest discussions like you post are relevant,intelligent and I think very straight forward..
No beating around the bush..
That for one , quite frankly, is what is important for a blog to survive..
Bravo..
Is the blob way off Baja, too close to the equator to rotate?