WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

U.S. has a cool and very dry March; severe weather outbreak likely today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:08 PM GMT on April 17, 2013

It was another relatively quiet month for weather extremes in the U.S. during March 2013, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. The month ranked as the 43rd coolest March in the 119-year record for the contiguous U.S., and was the coolest March since 2002. This is in stark contrast to what happened in 2012, when the U.S. had its warmest March on record. Eleven states, mostly in the Southeast, experienced a top-ten coolest March on record in 2013. Remarkably, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina had March 2013 temperatures that were cooler than in January 2013. California, Nevada, and Arizona had a top-ten warmest March. The pattern of warmth in the west and cool conditions in the east was due to the fact that the jet stream was stuck in a large loop that allowed cold air to spill out of Canada into the Southeast U.S., and warm air to flow northward over the southwestern states. We can describe the jet stream behavior using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which is a measure of pressure patterns across the Arctic. During March 2013, the monthly-averaged AO index reached its most negative March value since records began in 1950.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, the year 2013 has been below average for extremes. The CEI during January - March 2013 was 15%, and on average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for March 2013. Eleven states, mostly in the Southeast, had a top-ten coldest March, and California, Nevada, and Arizona had a top-ten warmest March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for March 2013. Although only two states had a top-ten driest March--Wyoming and Louisiana--just eight states were wetter than average, making March 2013 the 5th driest March on record for the U.S. as a whole. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Fifth driest March on record in the U.S.
Although only two states had a top-ten driest March in 2013--Wyoming and Louisiana--just eight states were wetter than average, making March 2013 the 5th driest March on record for the U.S. as a whole. Thanks to three major winter storms that crossed the Great Plains during the first half of April, there should be a notable improvement in drought conditions over much of the core U.S. drought region when Thursday's Drought Monitor report is issued, though. The most recent report from April 9 showed a big reduction of the area in the worst drought category, "Exceptional", from 5% to 3%, during the first week of April. About 51% of the U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the March snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was the 10th largest March snow cover extent in the 47-year period of record. However, snowpack, an important water resource in the West, was below-normal in the Sierra Nevada Mountains as well as the Central and Southern Rockies.


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday, April 17, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over much of Oklahoma, and portions of surrounding states. The main threat appears to be large hail, but there may also be a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page, and wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed post on today's severe weather threat.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Yogi

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Thanks for that ncstorm...I know little about how severe thunderstorms/tornado echos etc, and had been wondering with the radars being posted, trying to see the circulations being talked about. Cheers


You're welcome!
Well then.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well then.

That's a pretty good hook echo...
is this thing kickin up dust storms in extreme west Texas and New Mexico?
Loop
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well then.


A tornado was reported with that storm.

Now tornado warned.
#503 that picture is beautiful.

John Keats wrote "A thing of beauty is a joy forever"

Perhaps more perceptive Rainer Maria Rilke when she wrote "Beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror"


A thing of beauty is a joy forever.
Beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror.

Hey that rhymes. I'm gonna have to write that one down.
Quoting Minnemike:
is this thing kickin up dust storms in extreme west Texas and New Mexico?
Loop


It seems so.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
#503 that picture is beautiful.

John Keats wrote "A thing of beauty is a joy forever"

Perhaps more perceptive Rainer Maria Rilke when she wrote "Beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror"


A thing of beauty is a joy forever.
Beauty is nothing but the beginning of terror.

Hey that rhymes. I'm gonna have to write that one down.


I thought that was Fred Sanford.
So the blog is going off at 11:00 PM tonight for a few hours. Everybody better say what they want now.
No more moderate risk.







Another confirmed tornado, just southeast of Davidson, Oklahoma. Power flashes and trees down.
South Texas is trying to get in on the action. Impressive storm to be so far away from the main upper level support.

Quoting MississippiWx:
South Texas is trying to get in on the action. Impressive storm to be so far away from the main upper level support.



I'm in love with that storm. It's so lonely I wish I could help it out.

Community Maintenance: The blogs will be undergoing maintenance this evening after 11:00pm Eastern. It may take several hours for the repairs to be complete. We apologize for the inconvenience.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 118...

VALID 180121Z - 180245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 118 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS
OF WW118.

DISCUSSION...IN NRN INDIANA...ONE CLUSTER OF WAA-RELATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NWD/EWD AWAY FROM ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
BUOYANCY RESIDING S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
W-CNTRL OHIO WWD INTO CNTRL IL AND CNTRL MO. ASIDE FROM A RISK FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...AND BUOYANCY ATOP THE SFC COLD DOME WEAKENS
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACROSS NERN MO...W-CNTRL
IL...AND SERN IA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD...POTENTIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED TO THE N OF THE SFC FRONT...WHERE STRONG
STATIC STABILITY IS NOTED IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL PER THE ILX 00Z
RAOB. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG 0-6-KM SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH SVR HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HOWEVER...SVR
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF DOWNDRAFTS CAN PENETRATE THROUGH THE
STABLE LAYER TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY WITH ELEVATED BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS. VERY SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AND ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL GREATLY
MITIGATE SUCH POTENTIAL.

..COHEN.. 04/18/2013
Still could be a few more tornadoes tonight, but overall today was a bust. Saw it mentioned several times today that storms were interfering with one another and that seems to be the theme for today. Tomorrow could be a bigger outbreak, but that wouldn't take much.
TORNADO WARNING
OKC031-033-141-180215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0009.130418T0142Z-130418T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
WEST CENTRAL COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 838 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES WAS LOCATED NEAR LOVELAND. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH TOWARD
THE LOVELAND AND GRANDFIELD AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANDFIELD...CHATTANOOGA...FAXON...LOVELAND AND COOKIETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE IN THE DARK. DO NOT WAIT.
TAKE COVER NOW.
&&

LAT...LON 3428 9884 3448 9859 3425 9843 3421 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 248DEG 23KT 3425 9876

$$
AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO LOCATED NEAR GRANDFIELD...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Still could be a few more tornadoes tonight, but overall today was a bust. Saw it mentioned several times today that storms were interfering with one another and that seems to be the theme for today. Tomorrow could be a bigger outbreak, but that wouldn't take much.



It seems yet another year is unfolding where the plains are not tornado alley again, of course there is a long time yet left to determine if it will really be the case again. It has been so far though.
Haven't popped in in a while. However, I do think I need to say there has been a blast at a Fertilizer Manufacturer in West, Texas.

This big.

Just heard there was an explosion in West, Texas at a fertilizer plant. Sound pretty bad right now.

EDIT: Ninja'd
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just heard there was an explosion in West, Texas at a fertilizer plant. Sound pretty bad right now.


Hey Blue..we don't see you around here much..(at least to me)
how ya been?
Community Maintenance: The blogs will be undergoing maintenance this evening after 11:00pm Eastern. It may take several hours for the repairs to be complete. We apologize for the inconvenience.


T-38 MINS
SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region have warmed recently:

How many Tornadoes have been record so far today?

Quoting HrDelta:
Haven't popped in in a while. However, I do think I need to say there has been a blast at a Fertilizer Manufacturer in West, Texas.

This big.

Oh my :O
no offense to anyone or anything related to WU...

I hope these "blog maintenances" won't happen during a serious time during the hurricane season...
Quoting HrDelta:
Haven't popped in in a while. However, I do think I need to say there has been a blast at a Fertilizer Manufacturer in West, Texas.

This big.



Sounds bad according to police scanner.

5 Under-Covered Stories From New Pulitzer Winner InsideClimate News

Posted by Brian Clark Howard of National Geographic News on April 16, 2013

(Updated on April 17, 2013 at 2:15 pm)

The 2013 Pulitzer Prizes were announced this week (see the photo winners). Among the journalism winners were familiar names like the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the Sun Sentinel, and InsideClimate News. Wait, who?

InsideClimate News is a five-year old, Brooklyn-based website that focuses on climate change and environmental reporting. The online masthead lists eight staff members plus a handfull of contributors. Among them are Lisa Song, Elizabeth McGowan, and David Hasemyer, who together won this year’s Pulitzer for national reporting for their series 
”Dilbit Disaster: Inside the Biggest Oil Spill You’ve Never Heard Of.”

Atlantic MDR sea surface temperatures should rise quite a bit for the remainder of the month as trade winds lessen.





They've already started...

Got a long day tomorrow, I'm out for the night.

Stay safe out there!
539. etxwx
For news on the fertilizer plant explosion:
Waco Herald Tribune

Quoting allancalderini:
How many Tornadoes have been record so far today?


I'm not sure how many exactly. But, I think there have been few of them confirmed so far.


 
Watch out for potential tornadoes. Torcon is a 6 for East-Central Oklahoma.
Quoting etxwx:
For news on the fertilizer plant explosion:
Waco Herald Tribune


Community Maintenance: The blogs will be undergoing maintenance this evening after 11:00pm Eastern. It may take several hours for the repairs to be complete. We apologize for the inconvenience.

T-16 MINS
545. etxwx
Explosion sounds very bad indeed, thoughts and prayer go out to all involved.

KWTX

Dallas Morning News
Quoting etxwx:
Explosion sounds very bad indeed, thoughts and prayer go out to all involved.

KWTX

Dallas Morning News


This has not been a good week for the US.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:


 
Watch out for potential tornadoes. Torcon is a 6 for East-Central Oklahoma.




i think the potential for nados is overe for the night and that torcon of 6 sould be lower too a 3 or 4 for the rest of the night


it now mainy a flash flooding evnt with havey rain thaat is the olny thing you have too watch out for tonight nados ch are be comeing less and less
Sounds like another anhydrous ammonia tank is on fire. All fire fighters have been told to pull back. We may have another explosion about to take place.
Quoting HrDelta:


This has not been a good week for the US.




wont it be nic if yellowstone blew up too top off the week even no yellowstone wont blew up in my life time
Warning: There are couple of fake pictures from West, Texas explosion going around, especially on Twitter...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Warning: There are couple of fake pictures from West, Texas explosion going around, especially on Twitter...


A lot of people just suck.
Quoting MississippiWx:


A lot of people just suck.



what?
Quoting Tazmanian:



what?


...A lot of people just suck.
Quoting MississippiWx:


A lot of people just suck.
Yeah, it's just a world we live in.
Well Im out for the night..nice day off to track, make graphics and have fun with storms...

4 mins to shutdown...
Gnite
Nursing home supposedly collapsed in conjunction with the explosion in TX.


Community Maintenance: The blogs will be undergoing maintenance this evening after 11:00pm Eastern. It may take several hours for the repairs to be complete. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Nursing home has collapsed with people in it.
510 Grothar: So the blog is going off at 11:00 PM tonight for a few hours. Everybody better say what they want now.

Help! I'm being held hostage in a Chinese fortune cookie factory.
Quoting MississippiWx:


...A lot of people just suck.



so tell me are you one of them people that suck?
Last post of night: the pictures that are fake from West explosion is actually a wildfire in Texas from 2008. Look similar to the explosion today so people could've easily make mistake it for today's explosion.
Quoting Tazmanian:



so tell me are you one of them people that suck?


I think you totally missed the point of that post, Taz. See you guys later.
Wet weather is anticipated for my area during the beginning of next week as the front from the west moves into the Hawaiian Islands:



Later all.
The blog is back on.

Severe weather continues for the Great Plains.



SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 119...WW 120...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
AMPLE CAPE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...HART
SPC has issued a moderate risk for the area stretching from Mississippi to Michigan for later today. Damaging winds and tornadoes appear to be the biggest threats.







power outages around Central Illinois is causing flooding of basements as the ground is saturated ..
and ya got a few hrs of trailing rains storms to come
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and ya got a few hrs of trailing rains storms to come


Brother lost power for 1 1/2 hours which equals 6-8 inches of water in his basement ..
Edited to amend my ignorant mistake.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

OKC041-097-180615-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130418T0615Z/
DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
102 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR EASTERN
MAYES AND WESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES...

AT 101 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION
WAS LOCATED NEAR SPAVINAW STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO IN BROKEN ARROW AT ABOUT 1205 AM...AND
ANOTHER TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...STRANG...
SPAVINAW STATE PARK...PENSACOLA...SPAVINAW...LANGLEY...CHEROKEE STATE
PARK...CHLOETA...DISNEY LITTLE BLUE STATE PARK AND DISNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9492 3633 9473 3616 9512 3639 9529
3651 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 232DEG 42KT 3636 9512

$$
Can`t wait for the start of hurricane season.Thnk God mun is tomorrow.
Quoting Civicane49:
Wet weather is anticipated for my area during the beginning of next week as the front from the west moves into the Hawaiian Islands:



Later all.
That is why I say I love Hawaii it always look that it rains.
AT 134 AM CDT...A DAMAGING TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HONEY CREEK STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION...RADAR CONFIRMS TORNADO DEBRIS IN THE AIR!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...MO...NW AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...120...

VALID 180701Z - 180830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119...120...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS FROM NERN OK INTO SW MO. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD MOVE INTO
CNTRL MO AFTER 08Z. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A FEW
TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT LOCATED FROM NEAR
JOPLIN MO EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE OK...IS LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE
OF A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE BOW ECHO IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS SW AND
CNTRL MO...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
A FORWARD SPEED OF THE BOW AROUND 40-45 KT...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY NEAR
OR TO THE NORTH OF THE BOW APEX.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/18/2013
Just got back. No tornadoes, but several picturesque wall clouds on my chase. It was a fun one. I also passed through West today (twice actually, once this morning to chase and once tonight coming back). Even a couple of hours after the blast, the billowing smoke was incredible. Even at night, the smoke was blacker than black. Lucky for me, the SE winds pushed the smoke right over I-35. It smelled awful.
CMC model had been consistent in forecasting a potential tropical storm forming over the eastern Pacific during late next week. However, the recent run of that model is less enthusiastic of that scenario. Other global models are not expecting the development of a pre-season tropical storm. Nevertheless, this serves as a reminder that the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is right around the corner.

Squall line over Texas:

Good Morning folks!..
HEED LOCAL WARNINGS FOLKS,STAY SAFE TODAY............
Mornin' Mr. Largo, gang!

Evening Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Mr. Largo, gang!

Evening Aussie!
GOOD MORNING
wow they had tornado's already...not going to be a good day in the midwest states..stay safe folks, heed those warnings for your area today
7 day for Tampa Bay area.........................
Good morning everyone.

Today I'm in the slight risk area(SE MI). My main threat is damaging winds, then tornadoes, then hail in a lesser degree. My tornado threat depends on if skies can clear up some this morning to build more instability. Heavy rainfall is also a threat and a flood watch has been issued.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warm 73 already and severe weather on the way. We're already under wind advisories with gusts of 26 mph. I need to stake a small tree I planted before I leave for work.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: stuffed French toast with syrup or fresh fruit, bacon or sausage and fresh orange juice. Enjoy!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Mr. Largo, gang!

Evening Aussie!

Morning Mate!
Morning all :-)
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands as the trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU APR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. MODELS
PREDICT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/LOW TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT AND A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND
THE INFLOW OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PRODUCING
A CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY AT NORTH COAST PR AND USVI
TERMINALS WITH ENE WINDS NEAR 20G30KT. ATMS VERY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT
SCT-NMRS TSTMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING JSJ...JMZ AND ISX.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING EASTERLY TRADES WILL CREATE
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MODERATE/FRESH
TO FRESH/LOCALLY STRONG FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 88 74 / 30 20 20 50
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 50
593. MahFL
Wow there is a massive MOD risk today of severe weather.
St. Louis, MO is now under a tornado watch until 11am CDT.
Ahhh this is not good, NWS Detroit's radar is down.
000
NOUS63 KDTX 180539
FTMDTX

WSR-88D STATUS NOTIFICATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
137 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

TROUBLESHOOTING EFFORTS CONTINUE ON THE KDTX WSR-88D OUTAGE.
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS POINT TO A PEDESTAL DRIVE MOTOR FAILURE.
RETURN TO SERVICE IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

ALTERNATE RADAR SITES: KAPX, KGRR, KIWX, KCLE.
BMX

img src="OUNDINGS USING A T/TD OF 75/68 SHOW ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AT 06Z FRIDAY. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM HI-RES MODELS THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY TRY TO FORM ACROSS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING QLCS...BUT REGARDLESS OF STORM MODE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS.">
huntsville

.MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A 50KT JET LESS THAN 2KFT OFF THE DECK (WHILE
WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 70KT BY ABOUT 500MB). TEMPS REMAINING IN THE
70S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 65 AT THAT TIME ALSO SUPPORT THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. LCLS LESS THAN 800M AND STRONGER LL SHEAR ALSO
POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY BREAKS IN
THE LINE...EVEN AS STRAIGHT LINE WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH...IS THAT OUTPUT INDICATES SHEAR VECTORS
BEING LARGELY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORM OF THE LINE...THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT
STRONG COLD POOL/SHEAR BALANCE AND MAY HELP LOWER THE THREAT OF
LONGER DURATION SEVERE CONCERNS. AM NOT SURE WHETHER THIS HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT TREND
SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
MONITOR.
nashville

.BUT SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SURGE OF MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS COMING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE QLCS WHICH COULD BUMP UP CAPE VALUES TO NEAR/OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. REGARDLESS...IMPRESSIVE 0-3KM SRH
STRENGTHENING INTO THE 500-800 M2/S2 RANGE
AND VERY LONG CURVED
HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS ALONG WITH SOME QLCS TORNADOES. HIGHEST RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/WEST OF I-65 IN
THE 02-06Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AS STORMS
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY LESS INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING SHEAR
OFF TO THE EAST.
DANGEROUS WEATHER TODAY FOLKS,STAY ALERT AND SAFE..........SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

MOC065-181130-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-130418T1130Z/
DENT MO-
603 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DENT
COUNTY UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 559 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
SALEM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BANGERT...HOWES...SALEM AND SLIGO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PARIS TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLOSSOM...COMO...COOPER...
CUMBY...DEPORT...EAST TAWAKONI...EMORY...PARIS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK AND COOPER LAKE PARK SOUTH SULPHUR.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone.

Today I'm in the slight risk area(SE MI). My main threat is damaging winds, then tornadoes, then hail in a lesser degree. My tornado threat depends on if skies can clear up some this morning to build more instability. Heavy rainfall is also a threat and a flood watch has been issued.
Stay safe up there. I have family and friends close to your location and I will be thinking of all of you.

Sorry to be so ignorant, but what does that green area in Florida mean? We had a lovely evening in Ft Myers because of considerably less humidity; I was able to turn off the a/c and open the windows for the first time in days.
Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday.
Quoting FLwolverine:
Stay safe up there. I have family and friends close to your location and I will be thinking of all of you.

Sorry to be so ignorant, but what does that green area in Florida mean? We had a lovely evening in Ft Myers because of considerably less humidity; I was able to turn off the a/c and open the windows for the first time in days.
That green area in south florida is probably for those typical afternoon sea breeze showers,wish in my area we could get some today.
Low-level wind shear is on the order of 60-70 knots, extremely high. Any rotating supercells ahead of the line this afternoon have the potential to put down long-tracked, significant/violent tornadoes.
Another busted moderate risk yesterday.

pcola and jedkins stay alert tonight...............
Today may actually be the big day. 10 to 20 tornades today seem likely.

Rainy days ahead for FL.



...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER ANY AREA COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS AS WELL.
hopefully this will pan out and we get some rain here...........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ANY TIME BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT THIS TO WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST TAKING MOST OF THESE CLOUDS
WITH IT. MEANWHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES...MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES COULD POP A FEW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE GONE WITH 20
POPS IN THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS . COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS IN
A FEW SPOTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

TONIGHT THERE COULD BE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE
SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WHICH WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH 40 POPS FOR THE FAR NORTH AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT COAST TO
INLAND ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN...BUT CLOSE TO THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE FLOW BECOMING MORE OFF
THE GULF.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
ALONG WITH SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING. HAVE
LEFT THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THINGS MATERIALIZE AS THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS NUMBERS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN CULPRIT
WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THAN WE SHOULD HAVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT ALL DAY RAINS...
BUT WITH HEATING WE MAY SEE PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING TAKING PLACE AS MOST OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS OUT BY TUESDAY...BUT THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORMS.

THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR ON THURSDAY...
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU FAVOR. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK.
Quoting LargoFl:

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER ANY AREA COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS AS WELL.


Could be some flooding on the eastern side of FL as some areas have seen 4" to 6" of rain so far this month. My monthly total is at 3.62" average is 2.30"
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TODAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TODAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
MUCH OF INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EAST TX NORTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS

A POWERFUL UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND AFFECT THE MS AND OH VALLEYS. A FAST-MOVING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE RISK
AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT COUPLED WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE. ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..HART.. 04/18/2013

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
That green area in south florida is probably for those typical afternoon sea breeze showers,wish in my area we could get some today.
Thanks, Largo, and also for #610. I hope we both get some rain.
some showers already in south florida............
Quoting LargoFl:
some showers already in south florida............


no, false echos Largo. No rain on land yet.
Chicago is under a flash flood emergency.

932
WGUS73 KLOT 181132
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
632 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

ILC031-037-043-063-089-093-099-103-197-181700-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130418T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
KANE IL-KENDALL IL-LA SALLE IL-WILL IL-GRUNDY IL-DE KALB IL-DUPAGE
IL-
LEE IL-COOK IL-
632 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOK...SOUTHEASTERN
LEE...DUPAGE...SOUTHERN DE KALB...NORTHERN GRUNDY...NORTHWESTERN
WILL...LA SALLE...KENDALL AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DUPAGE AND COOK COUNTIES.

AT 626 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT NUMEROUS ROADS
AND INTERSTATES WERE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. REPORTS OF STRANDED
VEHICLES HAVE ALSO BEEN RELAYED IN ADDITION TO FLOODED HOMES AND
OTHER BUILDINGS. SOME MUNICIPALITIES HAVE ALSO DECLARED STATES OF
EMERGENCY DUE TO THE FLOODING.

3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH
APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THAT FALLING SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS MANY
AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL ONLY WORSEN EXISTING FLOODING AS WELL AS
ALLOW NEW FLOODING TO DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
RURAL ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 4214 8774 4208 8767 4197 8764 4196 8762
4191 8762 4190 8760 4184 8760 4172 8752
4110 8908 4111 8917 4158 8917 4158 8920
4165 8921 4196 8876 4216 8833

$$

MDB/IZZI


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 554 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS RECEIVED
REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DALLAS COUNTY.
CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS STREETS...
UNDERPASSES...AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IN URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY IN CONSTRUCTION ZONES. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO AVOID LOSING CONTROL.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO
GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9702 3297 9652 3255 9653 3256 9703

$$
GET THIS..AGAIN...NEXT WEEK GEEZ.............
625. SLU
Just in ..

A tornado may be in progress near Omaha, Arkansas, moving north-northeast.

628. MTWX
Going to be an intersting day/night...







.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
628 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-182230-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
628 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ANY TIME BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY...THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
BOUNDARY SETTLES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

Quoting SLU:
Just in ..



The eastern Pacific appears to be cooling. Atlantic looks warmer than normal for this time of the year.

Yesterday, a member posed a question regarding where the AB high would most likely be located at the height of the hurricane season. Was there a response?
Thanks.
634. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Historic Derecho of June 29, 2012
Service Assessment (PDF)


61 pages.... Definitely gonna have to wait until lunch break to read that one in its entirety....
"It was like a nuclear bomb went off," he said of the blast. "Big old mushroom cloud."

"(It's) massive -- just like Iraq. Just like the Murrah (Federal) Building in Oklahoma City," said D.L. Wilson of the Texas public safety department.

637. SLU
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


The eastern Pacific appears to be cooling. Atlantic looks warmer than normal for this time of the year.

Yesterday, a member posed a question regarding where the AB high would most likely be located at the height of the hurricane season. Was there a response?
Thanks.



Well it's difficult to say where it will be located this far in advance but of note is that UKMET's seasonal forecast calls for stronger than normal ridging across the subtropical Atlantic during the the heart of the season. Also, it indicates drier than normal rainfall in the subtropics and above average rainfall in the MDR which could be and indication of a focusing of activity in the MDR this season.
This storm may have been a bust as far as tornadoes are concerned, but a flooding catastrophe is unfolding in Illinois. Check out this gauge on the west side of Chicago.
If we don't get decret cells forming out ahead of this squall line then today's moderate risk will be a bust as well.

FOLKS STAY ALERT TO WARNINGS.................
Good morning everyone. Just popping in before I head out for a busy day. I had a lot of thunder an hour or so ago and it looks like the next round is more intense and will come the Chicago area pretty soon.
Big cluster south of Panama. Not quite a blob.


Quoting Slamguitar:
Good morning everyone. Just popping in before I head out for a busy day. I had a lot of thunder an hour or so ago and it looks like the next round is more intense and will come the Chicago area pretty soon.
SLAM STAY ALERT AND SAFE TODAY OK..SOME BAD STORMS AROUND
Thanks for the blog update Dr. Masters..



State of the Climate..National Overview Report..March 2013

For Maps and full report Click HERE



Looks like Indiana and Illinois will get some severe weather already today.


its going to be a real active day today weather wise huh.......
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC019-183-181345-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0021.130418T1305Z-130418T1345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
805 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 AM CDT

* AT 800 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAXTON TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GIFFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANKIN...POTOMAC...HOOPESTON...ROSSVILLE...PENFIEL D...ARMSTRONG...
COLLISON...MIDDLE FORK WILDLIFE AREA...HENNING...BISMARCK AND
ALVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 8753 4020 8814 4040 8809 4041 8794
4048 8794 4049 8793 4050 8759 4050 8753
4049 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1305Z 261DEG 43KT 4041 8796 4025 8800

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

GOETSCH
Climate science: A sensitive matter

From The Economist Newspaper
Quoting LargoFl:
GET THIS..AGAIN...NEXT WEEK GEEZ.............
That's good except for the server weather.That was practically absent in 2012.We need these rains.Nature more please and serve for seconds thirds fourths and so on.
Quoting Grothar:
Big cluster south of Panama. Not quite a blob.




Has a Blob-ish look to it.
Quoting RitaEvac:










yes its horrible rita..prayers for all over there..
Quoting LargoFl:
SLAM STAY ALERT AND SAFE TODAY OK..SOME BAD STORMS AROUND


I'll do fine. I'm always alert in these cases. I'm more worried about my friends and family that think tornadoes and severe storms aren't a big threat in lower MI. I've been letting them know to keep informed and safe today. :)
Their are pop up showers around this morning.It's muggy outside right now.I expect this disgusting feeling to go away when the sun comes back out and moisture leaves the area.
Looks like EF4 type tornado damage near the blast site
Quoting RitaEvac:










Yikes.Looks like tornado damage if I didn't know any better.But it wasn't.That was a pretty impressive explosion.I know it was bad but if it happened in a metropolitian area it could have been much worse.
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
This storm may have been a bust as far as tornadoes are concerned, but a flooding catastrophe is unfolding in Illinois. Check out this gauge on the west side of Chicago.

That gauges seems to have a decent period of record, too:
http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/il/nwis/peak?site_ no=05532500&agency_cd=USGS&format=html

Looks like the early values can't be compared with present values due to a likely datum shift in 1944. But from roughly 1944 to present, the maximum flow at that location has been just a hair under 10kcfs and the stage never exceeded 9.9ft. 630sq mi is a decent contributing area as well.

An estimated 4-6" of rainfall seems to be widespread across the western portions of metro Chicago and a Flash Flood Emergency is now in effect with numerous main arterials inundated.

I justed notice this note from the USGS regarding the Des Plaines River @ Riverside gauge...
"Prior to January 2011, the gage was located 400 feet downstream of the current location...a current reading of 6.00 ft would approximately equate to a reading of 5.55 ft at the old location and a current reading of 10.00 ft would approximately equate to a reading of 9.15 ft at the old location."
Last one before I'm out:



Drought Monitor released this am..



12 Week animation of Drought Monitor..

Quoting AussieStorm:
The Historic Derecho of June 29, 2012
Service Assessment (PDF)


I did the shallow dive into this report, since I am supposed to be working right now :) Bottom line? I found out there was going to be a severe event at 3 pm, with info I read on this blog. The storm hit at 9:00 that evening. I had six hours of lead time because I read this blog, but of course a huge majority of West Virginia residents don't frequent here. They only had an hour or two to prepare. I got home from work at 7pm that day and had to tell my husband as he had not seen the forecast yet. And he works outside as a landscaper/gardener! NWS just did not get the warning out quickly enough.

Please make note I am not trying to point fingers- climatology will tell you that the Appalachians will chew up and spit out storms like this... most of the time. But now experience needs to tell us we can't depend on that- we have to prepare for the worst and hope the forecast is a bust.

As for the recovery, that was just pathetic. The utilities were grossly unprepared to handle an event of that sort. I have a good friend in Belington, WV that waited until July 11- yes, that long- to get her power back on. I hope Potomac Edison is reading that report today :) Maybe they will beef up crews for severe weather season.
Quoting pcola57:
Drought Monitor released this am..



12 Week animation of Drought Monitor..


Thank goodness it's ending.
wow PDS

What I need is a good hurricane to track.No Ernesto's/Isaac's/Nadine's please...I should add ugly Leslie to the list as well as one of the most annoying storms of 2012..Micheal and Chris were just perfect and beautiful..So was Kirk.
Just updated from the NWS. 26 tornadoes from last week's outbreak and no moderate risk was issued but yet they issued on yesterday which only featured 2 tornadoes.

WW0123 RADAR Thumbnail Image Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch #123
Issued/Updated: Apr 18, 2013 at 1329 UTC
Expires: Apr 18, 2013 at 2100 UTC
Tornado Watch 123 Status Message has not been issued
A watch will be issued for southern Michigan soon.
Link
Quoting Slamguitar:
Last one before I'm out:




The sun is shinning outside right now. For me, that's a good thing. There should be more instability for the storms, I'm excited.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

TORNADO WATCH 123 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC021-023-027-059-149-182100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0123.130418T1335Z-130418T2100Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERRIEN BRANCH CASS
HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH
$$
This just an average squall line right now.


For a PDS to be issued we would have to see descret cells forming out ahead of this line and that isn't the case right now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What I need is a good hurricane to track.No Ernesto's/Isaac's/Nadine's please...I should add ugly Leslie to the list as well as one of the most annoying storms of 2012..Micheal and Chris were just perfect and beautiful..So was Kirk.


Leslie epicly failed at being a tropical cyclone.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Leslie epicly failed at being a tropical cyclone.

It was a good thing for Bermuda to because most models were forecasting a cat 3/4 headed right for them.I forgot what the problem was on why Leslie couldn't get it's act together.
677. MTWX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Just updated from the NWS. 26 tornadoes from last week's outbreak and no moderate risk was issued but yet they issued on yesterday which only featured 2 tornadoes.



Risk levels aren't based on just tornadoes... They base them on any of the 3 variables (tornadoes, wind, hail). The hail yesterday was significantly worse than last weeks.

Also tornado reports does not mean number of tornadoes... Most of the reports from last week were from a single tornado.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
For a PDS to be issued we would have to see descret cells forming out ahead of this line and that isn't the case right now.



dos not really matter we could see strong nados with in that line or vary damging winds of 80 too 100mph
Ah! I lied, I can't take myself away from the weather today! The intense band around 60 dBZ coming off of Lake Michigan is headed right for me.

Quoting washingtonian115:
It was a good thing for Bermuda to because most models were forecasting a cat 3/4 headed right for them.I forgot what the problem was on why Leslie couldn't get it's act together.


Dry air from the drought-stricken CONUS I would guess.
And here we go, tornado watch issued.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
For a PDS to be issued we would have to see descret cells forming out ahead of this line and that isn't the case right now.


ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
LOCALLY EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER TORNADIC OR
STRAIGHT LINE IN NATURE,
Quoting wxchaser97:
And here we go, tornado watch issued.


They should just cancel my classes/tests so I can track this all day!

After all, this is a StormReady university! :D
Quoting RitaEvac:












Yes, sadness today. We live 55 miles away, heard it, and thought it was thunder. I have been there for Westfest, it is only a community of like 2800.

USGS says, " The magnitude 2.1 measures only the ground motion, not the air wave, so is substantially less than the true size of the event. "
I'm just hoping that when the front get's to me the thunderstorms are "normal".However before that front arrives Friday is suppose to be in it's 80's(again this is D.C so I wouldn't be surprised if some localtions are in the mid 80's to upper 80's) with humidity..only giving more power to the storms like the June 29th storm who's name will not be mentioned..
686. VR46L
Quoting Slamguitar:
Ah! I can't take myself away from the weather today! The intense band around 60 dBZ coming off of Lake Michigan is headed right for me.



Stay safe !!

Its nasty looking stuff






BTW Hello Folks !!
Quoting wxchaser97:
And here we go, tornado watch issued.


take care Chaser97
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm just hoping that when the front get's to me the thunderstorms are "normal".However before that front arrives Friday is suppose to be in it's 80's(again this is D.C so I wouldn't be surprised if some localtions are in the mid 80's to upper 80's) with humidity..only giving more power to the storms like the June 29th storm who's name will not be mentioned..


The temps from that storm-that-must-not-be-named were around 100 and the humidity was higher as well. That was a rare even, and not likely to be repeated anytime soon.
Just a reminder of our tornado outlook as of a few hours ago:

Quoting WxGeekVA:


The temps from that storm-that-must-not-be-named were around 100 and the humidity was higher as well. That was a rare even, and not likely to be repeated anytime soon.
Oh no I know the storm-who's-name-will-not-be-mentioned will never be surpassed anytime soon.The temp was 106 degrees at my house with very of the scale humidity levels.It was like a blanket the best way I can described the weather tat day before the storm.The sad thing is is that it didn't even cool things off.However if humidity is still in the air before the front arrives the storms can get a boost.
It could get very dangerous out there if discrete cells form ahead of the line. Conditions today are favorable for a couple strong and possibly long tracked tornadoes. Stay safe out there, everybody!
big tornado watch 125 just issued
693. MTWX
Quoting Slamguitar:
Just a reminder of our tornado outlook as of a few hours ago:



Nothing like being in the 10% hatched when our weather isn't supposed to arrive until the midnight to 4 am slot....
These are some of the lowest probabilities I've ever seen for a PDS watch. Obviously the SPC must think there is some real destructive potential in there though or else they wouldn't have issued it.

WWUS40 KWNS 181336
WWP3

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

WT 0123 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24050
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU3.

$$
Quoting washingtonian115:
What I need is a good hurricane to track.No Ernesto's/Isaac's/Nadine's please...I should add ugly Leslie to the list as well as one of the most annoying storms of 2012..Micheal and Chris were just perfect and beautiful..So was Kirk.


To be honest, I just want to see a long-tracked Cape Verde major hurricane. Haven't seen one since Hurricane Katia.
Good golly, was not expecting a PDS today! That wording is very strong:
"SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE"


Even if discrete supercells don't materialize and the tornado threat is reduced, it's looking likely that we could see a huge derecho event.
My guy feeling tells me the probabilities, at least for tornado potential (F2+) for this tornado watch is probably too conservative. It is only 30% chance of a significant tornado and the watch goes for 7.5 hours.

It is in both the hatched tornado area and the hatched wind area, so it certainly has that going for it.



Quoting CybrTeddy:


To be honest, I just want to see a long-tracked Cape Verde major hurricane. Haven't seen one since Hurricane Katia.
Yes!.More of those please.I wouldn't mind a 2010 repeat which had a handful of those.Igor,Danielle,Earl,Julia.But the conditions compared to last year in the deep tropics look more primed.

Post 698 does that go out to tomorrow?.
This one is going to be in my area in ~1hr.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OTTAWA...
SOUTHERN MUSKEGON AND NORTHERN ALLEGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

AT 1024 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNUG HARBOR TO CRISP TO
SAUGATUCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MOORLAND AND DUNNINGVILLE AROUND 1035 AM EDT.
DIAMOND SPRINGS AND BEAVERDAM AROUND 1040 AM EDT.
MONTEREY AND TALLMADGE AROUND 1045 AM EDT.
FOREST GROVE AND HUDSONVILLE AROUND 1050 AM EDT.
WAYLAND AROUND 1055 AM EDT.
GREEN LAKE AND CORNING AROUND 1100 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE EASTMANVILLE...ALLENDALE...
ZEELAND...RAVENNA...HAMILTON...CHESTER TWP...LAMONT...CONKLIN...
BAILEY AND DRENTHE.

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0015
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
851 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 181250Z - 181750Z

SUMMARY...WARM FRONT AND GREATER INSTABILITY NOSING INTO A REGION
ALREADY INUNDATED BY OVERNIGHT RAINS. ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINS
WILL COMPOUND ONGOING AREAL FLOODING AND MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...INDICATED BY THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH ON ASSOCIATED GRAPHIC...HAD YIELDED TRAINING
STORMS OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING. MONITORING LOCAL STORM REPORTS AND
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...THERE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF AREAL FLOODING/INUNDATION OWING TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS ALREADY LOW.

THE STAGE IS SET FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TO COMPOUND THE SITUATION.
TRAINING ECHOES WITH MDT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MID LEVEL
FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF KALAMAZOO TO LANSING TO FLINT...WITH THESE
ECHOES INTERCEPTING THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
MEANWHILE...WITH SFC WARM FRONT NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN...THE NAM SHOWS INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGH 15 UTC IN
ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. INCREASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.75 INCHES...OR 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMATOLOGY... ARGUES FOR A BRIEF BURST
OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SQUALL LINE...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL 1-2 INCHES ATOP SATURATED GROUND. EVENT SHOULD PROPAGATE
EASTWARD BY MIDDAY.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 41728704 41848556 42348443 42838380 43248367 43628376
43778399 43838477 43578570 42838730 42428794 41798774
41728704
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.More of those please.I wouldn't mind a 2010 repeat which had a handful of those.Igor,Danielle,Earl,Julia.But the conditions compared to last year in the deep tropics look more primed.

Post 698 does that go out to tomorrow?.

Nope, that's for now/today.
703. MTWX
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes!.More of those please.I wouldn't mind a 2010 repeat which had a handful of those.Igor,Danielle,Earl,Julia.But the conditions compared to last year in the deep tropics look more primed.

Post 698 does that go out to tomorrow?.


Heere is tomorrows Wash...

Link
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED EWD 20-25 KT ACROSS WW AREA WITH
EMBEDDED ELEMENTS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY NEWD...ROUGHLY 40 KT. GIVEN
LACK OF CINH EVIDENT IN 12Z LZK RAOB...DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF INITIAL/PRIMARY CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. WARM SECTOR IS FCST TO DESTABILIZE STEADILY
THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...EDWARDS
Quoting MTWX:


Heere is tomorrows Wash...

Link
Thanks.Looks like we won't get it as bad here as the plains.
Stephen Hawking gave a talk this week saying that the Universe was created without God. I guess I've been duped about God and religion. Gotta believe what science says.
707. MTWX
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks.Looks like we won't get it as bad here as the plains.


Yeah. As the cold front finally swings through overnight tonight, it looks like it will cut off the low level moisture currently coming in off of the gulf. You guys will get some storms, but nothing near the extent of today.
60+ mph winds, bet there is going to be alot of roof damage etc thruout the midwest today regardless of tornado's etc..not a good day at all, I just hope folks in the warned area's are taking heed of this bad weather and taking the needed precautions huh...so many just go about their business and dont
The main threat from these storms today is damaging winds, less hail and tornadoes as SPC says

we already have 7 wind reports
The atmosphere ahead of the squall line remains capped for the time being. When it breaks, there's a good chance of isolated supercells which will be capable of producing marginally severe hail, extremely damaging winds, and a few significant/long-lived tornadoes.
not a nice day saturday,but hopefully some good rains...
Im ready for hurricane season. It looks like the tropics are locked and loaded, now all we need is the safety (jet stream) turned off and the trigger (convection) pulled.
Quoting MTWX:


Yeah. As the cold front finally swings through overnight tonight, it looks like it will cut off the low level moisture currently coming in off of the gulf. You guys will get some storms, but nothing near the extent of today.
After last year we don't need any of those.But we do need the rain.Don't want to slip back into a drought.Those flowers/plants last year looked so miserable.They look much happier and brighter.Now their's a mental image for ya.
Post-frontal isentropic lift once again rules the day here in Texas.



I'm pretty surprised we got PDS tornado watch in Indiana. Wasn't expecting one, despite the day being moderate risk. I think SPC jumped the gun on this one.
Current tornado watches from SPC


Another line that will eventually reach me:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN TO BENTON
HARBOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TOQUIN AND SOUTH HAVEN AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
PIER COVE AND BANGOR AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
FENNVILLE AND DECATUR AROUND 1115 AM EDT.
NEW RICHMOND AND BERLAMONT AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
DUNNINGVILLE AND ARMSTRONG CORNERS AROUND 1125 AM EDT.
MONTEREY AND DIAMOND SPRINGS AROUND 1130 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE VAN BUREN STATE PARK...
PALISADES PARK...COVERT...KEELER...HARTFORD...HAMILTON TWP...
MCDONALD...LACOTA...LAWRENCE AND KIBBIE.

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
719. MTWX
Discrete cells trying to fire ahead of the line in central AR. Link
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm pretty surprised we got PDS tornado watch in Indiana. Wasn't expecting one, despite the day being moderate risk. I think SPC jumped the gun on this one.


Where in Indiana are you located?
For those living in the East coast, expect gusty winds, hail and maybe (low chance) of tornadoes...


those weather conditions described above are more likely to happen within this area



more updates about it tomorrow
Quoting Slamguitar:
Another line that will eventually reach me:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF SOUTH HAVEN TO BENTON
HARBOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TOQUIN AND SOUTH HAVEN AROUND 1105 AM EDT.
PIER COVE AND BANGOR AROUND 1110 AM EDT.
FENNVILLE AND DECATUR AROUND 1115 AM EDT.
NEW RICHMOND AND BERLAMONT AROUND 1120 AM EDT.
DUNNINGVILLE AND ARMSTRONG CORNERS AROUND 1125 AM EDT.
MONTEREY AND DIAMOND SPRINGS AROUND 1130 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE VAN BUREN STATE PARK...
PALISADES PARK...COVERT...KEELER...HARTFORD...HAMILTON TWP...
MCDONALD...LACOTA...LAWRENCE AND KIBBIE.

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH



This is deja vu...I remember dreaming about there being a severe wx event and coming on wunderground and talking about it and you mentioned this line coming......dont remember what happened after that, it probably wasnt good :)

My wx dreams usually dont end so safely

Anyway, stay safe.
Watch that storm near Quitman, Arkansas.
Quoting MrstormX:


Where in Indiana are you located?
I'm not in Indiana. I'm in North Carolina. I'm just saying I'm surprised we got PDS watch, although it is moderate risk day.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm not in Indiana. I'm in North Carolina. I'm just saying I'm surprised we got PDS watch, although it is moderate risk day.


Oh, apologies...I thought you were in Indiana haha.
Got to go back to class. Tornado warning in southern Missouri, btw.
Quoting MrstormX:


Oh, apologies...I thought you were in Indiana haha.
Haha, it's all good :)
Quoting MrstormX:


Oh, apologies...I thought you were in Indiana haha.


yep..he's a Carolinian from the northerners
Now that I look at it a little more closely, this is probably closer to the surface where the upglide is taking place.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



This is deja vu...I remember dreaming about there being a severe wx event and coming on wunderground and talking about it and you mentioned this line coming......dont remember what happened after that, it probably wasnt good :)

My wx dreams usually dont end so safely

Anyway, stay safe.


Hopefully it ended in lollipops and unicorns and not death. :D
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Got to go back to class. Tornado warning in southern Missouri, btw.



this check the NWS pags and there is no tornado warning out there
Quoting Slamguitar:


Hopefully it ended in lollipops and unicorns and not death. :D


Definitely not death...I never dream about that....
Not looking good for tornadoes today as this squall line is charging east fast. Again SPC folks might have really jumped the gun here. I mean a PDS with marginally strong storms. Makes no sense.



Quoting MTWX:
Discrete cells trying to fire ahead of the line in central AR. Link


That maybe a tornado area extending into Mississippi and Tennessee.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Not looking good for tornadoes today as this squall line is charging east fast. Again SPC folks might have really jumped the gun here. I mean a PDS with marginally strong storms. Makes no sense.





the biggest deal today are the damaging winds... very strong gusts are the main threat, lowered the changes for hail significantly and for tornadoes today...

Already 9 wind reports
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the biggest deal today are the damaging winds... very strong gusts are the main threat, lowered the changes for hail significantly and for tornadoes today...

Already 9 wind reports


It just seems the SPC folks were using the shock and awe effect earlier when it appeared the tornado threat was going to be very low.
They issued a PDS for this? LOL!!

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Lots of rain on tap for FL.

84hr precip accum (NAM)
Less important than the tornadoes..but

City of Thunder Bay
5:18 AM EDT Thursday 18 April 2013
Snowfall warning for
City of Thunder Bay issued

15-20cm of snow expected. Winter will never end!

So much for the 10C we usually get this time of year. :/
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



This is deja vu...I remember dreaming about there being a severe wx event and coming on wunderground and talking about it and you mentioned this line coming......dont remember what happened after that, it probably wasnt good :)

My wx dreams usually dont end so safely

Anyway, stay safe.

Lucky, my dreams of that nature usually end up being horribly wrong (probably because I typically end up dreaming something catastrophic). The only time they seem to end up right is when they involve my ex-girlfriend. :P