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NOAA employees may be furloughed 4 days during the 2013 hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:57 PM GMT on April 15, 2013

National Weather Service and NOAA employees may be forced to take up to four unpaid days off this summer, thanks to the the government-wide sequestration cuts which have forced an 8.2% budget cut. NOAA has attempted to respond to the mandatory budget cuts by freezing hiring and cutting back on staff travel and training. However, this has not been enough. In an email sent to all NOAA employees on April 15, Kathryn Sullivan, acting NOAA administrator, said: "We are entering into national consultations with the labor unions that represent some of the NOAA workforce regarding implementation of up to four days of furlough for each NOAA employee before September 30, 2013." The proposed furlough days are July 5, July 19, August 5, and August 30. NOAA employees working at 24/7 operational forecast offices at NWS and the National Hurricane Center would presumably not be furloughed on these days, if there were a major severe weather event occurring. However, I have great concerns that the furlough could cause confusion that would adversely affect critical forecasts and warnings. All of these days fall during hurricane season. The day of greatest concern to me is August 30, which falls during the height of hurricane season (recall that Hurricane Katrina hit the coast on August 29, 2005.) I'm sure that NOAA would do their best to ensure that the furlough would not interfere with critical operations during a landfalling hurricane situation, but would their best be good enough? These are uncharted waters, and its best not to be messing with nation's hurricane warning system during the peak part of hurricane season. In an interview with the Washington Post, Richard Hirn, general counsel for the National Weather Service’s labor union, the National Weather Service Employees Organization, said: “NOAA’s plans to furlough operational employees at the National Weather Service as we enter the severe storm and hurricane season is unnecessary and places the public at great risk." Here is the email sent by Sullivan to NOAA employees today:



Related:
Government budget cuts force leading meteorological training program to seek donations

Sequester may force layoffs of airport weather observers in 109 airports. Some examples: Chattanooga, Lubbock, and West Virginia.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments





Could be some rotation, in the storm crossing the IN/OH border.
Quoting whitewabit:


97 what radar web site did you get this screen shot from ??

Gibbson Ridge - GR2Analyst. It costs about $250. Of course, there are a lot of features it has. and I think it is worth it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Gibbson Ridge - GR2Analyst. It costs about $250. Of course, there are a lot of features it has. and I think it is worth it.


tks ..
Quoting SLU:


Nice mid-level swirl near Guadeloupe. We've seen a few very discernible features like this for the month so far which is strange ...


505. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

You commented in the recent blog by Dr. Masters about that. Pay attention in class!

Where is the missing heat going? Into the oceans


Yeah but I only posted weather that blog ! Actually checked ... This is an article that was published 04/16/13. Like I said dont shoot the messenger as it was an interesting article ...
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 PM AST TUE APR 16 2013

PRC033-061-127-162230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0014.130416T2038Z-130416T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-CATANO PR-
438 PM AST TUE APR 16 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN AND CATANO

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 433 PM AST...MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECTED THESE
MUNICIPALITIES IN THE PAST HOUR AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING
IN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 630 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6603 1845 6603 1844 6604 1842 6601
1839 6601 1838 6611 1846 6614 1847 6613

$$

JJA
Wow, you know it's been a persistently cold winter when you go for a leisurely afternoon bike ride in 54F weather with jeans and a short-sleeve and come back sweating like crazy.

Still love it though!
Severe weather tomorrow...could it be what some people here want while others in the path may not



Click image for larger view...I'll have to use my tornado map tomorrow for the first time I guess...


More updates later
509. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

We will have to put you in the corner with Chuck.


Why ???

Dont get it
It's sure going to be a stormy afternoon here. The clouds are getting dark and I'm starting to hear rumbles of thunder.

Quoting wxchaser97:
Severe thunderstorm headed for Xenia, OH.
Oh No..That's where I grew up.They sure don't need any severe weather.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temperature map is the subject

I wonder how accurate that is in the northern latitudes... That 35 temp over the southern tip of Greenland is nearly to the Arctic Circle. Ya know... I wonder if the core temperatures of the Greenland icecap are lower than the current temperature and are warming... I poked around and could not discover ice temperatures at depth.. is it 20 below a thousand feet down in a Greenland glacier? I recall reading some stuff about that a long time ago.. BI (before intertubes)

back to lookin.
I'm now under a severe thunderstorm warning. This storm is heading right in my direction. This storm is capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds.
Quoting Ameister12:
I'm now under a severe thunderstorm warning. This storm is heading right in my direction. This storm is capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds.
Ameister, Are you in southwest Ohio?
and lots of rain expected...hence the flood watches


Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ameister, Are you in southwest Ohio?

Yes I am.
Quoting Ameister12:

Yes I am.
What city Ame? I grew up in Xenia... Tell me about the weather right now... Still have a brother in Springboro, and friends in Xenia, Dayton, Fairborn and Yellow Springs..
Quoting indianrivguy:


I wonder how accurate that is in the northern latitudes... That 35+ temp over the southern tip of Greenland is nearly to the Arctic Circle. Ya know... I wonder if the core temperatures of the Greenland icecap are lower than the current temperature and are warming... I poked around and could not discover ice temperatures at depth.. is it 20 below a thousand feet down in a Greenland glacier? I recall reading some stuff about that a long time ago.. BI (before intertubes)

back to lookin.


i would reckon there is vast caverns under the ice from the melt water that has filter down to the subterrain surface maybe creating vast caves of above freeze tempertures 33 35 not much more
more so in the summer sun as exposed surface and rock regions heat in the full sun then in turn the heat transfers into the rock farther farther faster and faster as it warms

there are lots of unknowns

too many

we are all learning together
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
What city Ame? I grew up in Xenia... Tell me about the weather right now... Still have a brother in Springboro, and friends in Xenia, Dayton, Fairborn and Yellow Springs..

I live in southwest Warren County near the town of Kings Mills. The rain has really picked up and it's getting really windy. The thunder is also pretty loud.

There is a nasty storm passing north of Springboro. Your brother could see some light rain with that storm.
Quarter size hail is falling!
Quoting Ameister12:
Quarter size hail is falling!


take care of yourself!
Quoting Ameister12:
Quarter size hail is falling!

Lucky, the core is passing right over you. I'm jealous. Did you report it?

And there is another storm coming for you! >:(
Quoting Ameister12:
Quarter size hail is falling!


Don't try to catch it on your tongue like a snowflake. ;)

Hopefully you're in the worst of it and the hail isn't bigger elsewhere.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday 16 April 2013Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 milesTemperature:57.2°F
Dewpoint:38.5°F
Humidity:49%
Wind:NW 17 mph
525. txjac
Quoting Ameister12:
Quarter size hail is falling!


Stay safe
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:49 PM PDT on April 16, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
62 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 49%
Dew Point: 43 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.86 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 7.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft
I have never seen hail this big! Absolutely INSANE! It's bigger than quarter size.
Quoting VR46L:


Why ???

Dont get it
just ribbing ya a little VR they do that when they like ya here
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky, the core is passing right over you. I'm jealous. Did you report it?

And there is another storm coming for you! >:(


Wait until you get a car. Not so fun then. Unless you have a garage of course. :D
Quoting VR46L:

Yeah but I only posted weather that blog ! Actually checked ... This is an article that was published 04/16/13. Like I said dont shoot the messenger as it was an interesting article ...

I hate long comments, but ...

Popular press news articles (even Reuters) are unreliable sources of scientific information. They are usually designed to be sensational to capture the maximum number of eyeballs, not give up-to-the-date information. Depending on the news organization you can't be sure they even attempted to be objective.

Dr. M was citing a recent result not hinted at by the Reuters article. Dr. M's summary of that article:

"The preponderance of La Nina events in recent years has caused a large amount of heat from global warming to be transferred to the deep oceans, according to a journal article published earlier this week by Balmaseda et al., "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content". The warming at the surface has slowed down in recent years, but the total amount of heat going in the atmosphere/oceans/surface has continued unabated. The next big El Nino event will be able to liberate some of this stored heat back to the surface, but much of the new deep ocean heat will stay down there for hundreds of years. As far as civilization is concerned, that is a good thing, though the extra heat energy does make ocean waters expand, raising sea levels."
Quoting Ameister12:
I have never seen hail this big! Absolutely INSANE! It's bigger than quarter size.


Wow, try to snap a few pics when/where it's safe.

I know many of us would appreciate it!


something is wrong with the frames...idk
Quoting Slamguitar:


Wait until you get a car. Not so fun then. Unless you have a garage of course. :D

It is not like I haven't seen hail before, it's just I love hail and want more. Last year, I got hail up to the size of golf balls on July 4th. There was some damage to cars as a result of that. Of course, I, stupidly, was out in the middle of it all.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It is not like I haven't seen hail before, it's just I love hail and want more. Last year, I got hail up to the size of golf balls on July 4th. There was some damage to cars as a result of that. Of course, I, stupidly, was out in the middle of it all.
img
src="http://imageshack.us/a/img834/8657/weatherin berkley001.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">


not so much...One time when I lived in NYC, we got hail and I was outside too...
Quoting Doppler22:
Does anyone think the severe weather in Ohio and W. PA later today will maintain itself after it exits the Appalachian MTS in Easter PA?



Sometimes lines of storms hold together thru the Apps, sometimes they fall apart. These look pretty perky, so maybe you will get a few rumbles.

I live 60 miles east of Morgantown, WV so if I get anything, I'll post here so you know it's on the way. I usually do that as my PSA for the DC posters :)
Just got some pictures of the hail. I'll upload them very soon.

Anyways, round two of severe storms is on it's way.
Just a random fact...The 2011 Super Outbreak got its first mention in the SPC long-range outlook on this date:

FOR DAYS 6/7 THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AVAILABLE 00Z BASED GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
9N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N77W...
TO 15N82W...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
RIDGE IS NOT IN PHASE WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO
90W RIDGE.

THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN PUSHING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
REACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ONLY.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR CURACAO FOR THE
24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC IS
0.46 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERTATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM COLOMBIA INTO EASTERN
PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 11N
TO 13.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ALSO EXPECT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST
OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
Here's the hail storm as it passed over my location. (I live very close to Landen.)

So... *cough* I give you the 12z CMC 240-hour forecast for the eastern Pacific...

Two tropical cyclones <_<



By the way, CMC data just this morning was made free-to-access by the Canadian government, so I can now plot the CMC out to 240 hours at both 0z and 12z for all parameters at full resolution. That's a way better deal than the current GFS.
Quoting Levi32:
So... *cough* I give you the 12z CMC 240-hour forecast for the eastern Pacific...



Welcome to Hurricane season
nice sat gotta say..look at the storms in Ohio/Illinois

544. twest
Government agencies should do all they an to operate within their budgets and these deficits should no longer be tolerated. A 20-25% reduction in spending throughout the government can probably be achieved with minimum housekeeping.

Don't be surprised and when the media tie in weather-related disasters to the 4 day furlough. Dr. Masters is already doing it in his post. If August 30 is of such great concern (and understandably so) why not start the furlough today or in May? With so many scientists and so much analysis why do they not select the calmest and most uneventful periods for the furlough?

I know I won't make many friends around here with this post but these are simplistic fear tactics.

Quoting Levi32:
So... *cough* I give you the 12z CMC 240-hour forecast for the eastern Pacific...

Two tropical cyclones <_<



By the way, CMC data just this morning was made free-to-access by the Canadian government, so I can now plot the CMC out to 240 hours at both 0z and 12z for all parameters at full resolution. That's a way better deal than the current GFS.
they have done a whole new web page design very pleased to say the least great new look
Kudos to Palm Beach county for having a "Veterans Job Fair" The country owes our vets ..Let's let them find work after serving our great country.
I've just finished recording my first video! Silly question, but does anyone know how to embed a video on WU?
548. VR46L
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just ribbing ya a little VR they do that when they like ya here


Being from a different country I must of took it up wrong ... I perceived that I was being called a dunce or idiot but it can't be as a moderator could never let something like that stand .... Call it miscommunication of the English Language !




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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 PM AST TUE APR 16 2013

PRC033-061-127-162230-
/O. Do you think this little tropical disturbance should be consider the first tropical wave 2013 ?
Quoting VR46L:


Being from a different country I must of took it up wrong ... I perceived that I was being called a dunce or idiot but it can't be as a moderator could never let something like that stand .... Call it miscommunication of the English Language !




VR....KEEPER is a cool mod... He is my favorite. I'm sure he was just messin' with ya
A couple hail pictures.

During the Storm


Hail covering the ground


Bigger than a quarter!

Quoting Ameister12:
A couple hail pictures.

Wow!
Quoting Slamguitar:


Wait until you get a car. Not so fun then. Unless you have a garage of course. :D
This. It's the moment I realized exactly what expensive sounds like. It's hail hitting a car and/or large hail hitting a roof.
555. SLU
The GFS rainfall forecast is beginning to fall in line with the North American Multi-Model (NMME) consensus on showing heavy rainfall in the eastern Caribbean this month. Interestingly, the NMME and the UKMET also show this rainy pattern continuing through the hurricane season which is usually an indication of an active ITCZ, robust wave train and multiple tropical cyclones passing through the area. Only the ECMWF doesn't show above average rainfall across the MDR which I would like to treat as an outlier at this time with all due respect to the ECMWF.




Funky looking hail ring
Quoting VR46L:


Being from a different country I must of took it up wrong ... I perceived that I was being called a dunce or idiot but it can't be as a moderator could never let something like that stand .... Call it miscommunication of the English Language !






but if you say "I wonder why Nea doesnt post these anymore" you get ban..go figure..(yeah I still feeling a way about that)
Quoting Ameister12:
A couple hail pictures.

During the Storm


Hail covering the ground


Bigger than a quarter!



wow, nice pictures you got there...
great job!
Here's another picture showing the size and the cool layers some of the hail had. It looked like hail inside hail!
Quoting SLU:
The GFS rain forecast is beginning to fall in line with the North American Multi-Model (NMME) consensus on showing heavy rainfall in the eastern Caribbean this month. Interestingly, the NMME and the UKMET also show this rainy pattern continuing through the hurricane season which is usually an indication of an active ITCZ, robust wave train and multiple tropical cyclones passing through the area. Only the ECMWF doesn't show above average rainfall across the MDR which I would like to treat as an outlier at this time with all due respect to the ECMWF.

a href="" target="_blank">GFS rainfall forecast through May 2nd.





That is because ECMWF has higher pressures that suppress moisture.But I don't give a lot of weight to that forecast.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
I've just finished recording my first video! Silly question, but does anyone know how to embed a video on WU?

If the video came from YouTube, then just go the the embed tab on the video. Then copy the embed code and paste it on the comment section. Make sure the "use old embed code" box is checked off.

I recommend using YouTube. I can't wait to see it.
Quoting VR46L:


Being from a different country I must of took it up wrong ... I perceived that I was being called a dunce or idiot but it can't be as a moderator could never let something like that stand .... Call it miscommunication of the English Language !




But here's something I don't understand - and you're not alone on this VR, so I'm not picking on you. You just happen to be the one who posted. I would think that, since people on here are interested in weather (and oh boy are they interested!), they would also be interested in the info Dr M posts that affects the context of the weather (ie, climate), regardless of whether they agree with his position on global warming or not. So if a study shows there is warming in the deep oceans, I would think the reaction would be: interesting - I wonder what that means for the hurricane season (or the ocean currents or whatever). Instead, some posters groan "oh, another climate change blog" and seem to ignore the weather consequences of whatever the info might be. Not everyone, certainly, but a bunch, and that's always puzzled me.
563. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is because ECMWF has higher pressures that suppress moisture.But I don't give a lot of weight to that forecast.



Will be very interesting to see how that pans out.
speaking of maps



Quoting CybrTeddy:
I've just finished recording my first video! Silly question, but does anyone know how to embed a video on WU?


Use Youtube. It's easy. Then copy/paste the embed code.
Entire state of Illinois

430 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013


...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY AT THE REQUEST OF THE MAYWOOD POLICE
DEPARTMENT, THE ILLINOIS EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM IS ACTIVATED FOR AN
AMBER ALERT...

THE MAYWOOD POLICE HAVE CONFIRMED A CHILD ABDUCTION THAT OCCURRED AT
6TH AND MAIN IN MAYWOOD. BRYEON HUNTER IS A MALE BLACK, ONE YEAR
OLD, 2 FEET TALL, 30 POUNDS. HE IS WEARING A 2 TONE BLUE STRIPE LONG
SLEEVE SHIRT, BLUE JEANS, BLUE AND BROWN NIKE BOOTS AND WAS LAST
SEEN BY HIS MOTHER AT 2:15P TODAY.

THE VEHICLE WAS A BLACK TWO DOOR CAR WITH TINTED WINDOWS.

THERE ARE THREE MALE HISPANIC SUSPECTS IN THE VEHICLE, ONE
DESCRIBED AS A HEAVY SET MALE HISPANIC, BALD WITH A PATCH OF HAIR
IN THE BACK, THE OTHER TWO DESCRIBED AS STOCKY.

ANYONE WITH INFORMATION SHOULD CALL 9 1 1 AND ADVISE THEY HAVE AN
AMBER ALERT REPORT AND MAY ALSO CALL 7 0 8 4 5 0 4 4 7 1. THIS
CONCLUDES THE AMBER ALERT WITH THE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE.

______

BLIZZARD WATCHES UP IN COLORADO
Wow! Over a dozen hail reports from the storm including one here in Kings Mills reporting over 1 inch hail!
Quoting Ameister12:
Here's the hail storm as it passed over my location. (I live very close to Landen.)



Small world, I used to live between Morrow and Maineville. Drove through Landen all the time. Hey, do you know if the old Peters Cartridge building at the Kings Mills site is still standing?



I couldn't count how many times I drove under that old catwalk...

Quoting SLU:


Nice mid-level swirl near Guadeloupe. We've seen a few very discernible features like this for the month so far which is strange ...
Do you think this should be consider the first tropical wave ?





hydrus,what is the latest from GFS/ECMWF on the NAO?
Quoting HuracanTaino:


At least is a surface trough in my view.
Quoting indianrivguy:
temperature map is the subject

I wonder how accurate that is in the northern latitudes... That 35 temp over the southern tip of Greenland is nearly to the Arctic Circle. Ya know... I wonder if the core temperatures of the Greenland icecap are lower than the current temperature and are warming... I poked around and could not discover ice temperatures at depth.. is it 20 below a thousand feet down in a Greenland glacier? I recall reading some stuff about that a long time ago.. BI (before intertubes)

back to lookin.



Evening all,
So there is a bit of a big jump in the CO2 as expected last Feb.
Its up over 3PPM From,393,54 PPM to 396.80 PPM in 12 months.

Here's the link for those who haven't got it:-

http://co2now.org/

I haven't seen it go up this much in a year before. Might be to do with a bad cold winter and the home fires burning a bit more than usual

This line from the article is of profound interest based on what Keeper said a while back about caverns under the ice etc.

"The average December temperature was more than 5°C (9°F) above average in part of south eastern Greenland"
Maybe just another nail in the coffin, or maybe more than one!
Navy doesn't have up a 92W. NOAA does, have to wunder if there isn't a mistake, they also have the same storm as 04W, like they are changing it over. Not alot of convection..




Quoting VR46L:


Being from a different country I must of took it up wrong ... I perceived that I was being called a dunce or idiot but it can't be as a moderator could never let something like that stand .... Call it miscommunication of the English Language !






To be in the same corner is to have the same view.. with your similiar views you two are fighting from the same corner. Now had they put a hat on you..
576. SLU
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Do you think this should be consider the first tropical wave ?







It looks more like a mid-level trough with only a slight surface windshift.
Quoting MrMixon:


Small world, I used to live between Morrow and Maineville. Drove through Landen all the time. Hey, do you know if the old Peters Cartridge building at the Kings Mills site is still standing?



I couldn't count how many times I drove under that old catwalk...


I haven't seen it in a few months, but yes I do believe it is still standing. I would love to go inside it and take some pictures, but obviously, nobody is allowed inside it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

If the video came from YouTube, then just go the the embed tab on the video. Then copy the embed code and paste it on the comment section. Make sure the "use old embed code" box is checked off.

I recommend using YouTube. I can't wait to see it.


yep, me too...
Latest OSCAT of 92W or 04W..looking at this I hope they didn't upgrade it to 04W. The previous ASCAT looked a little better but nothing near closed.
Quoting Ameister12:

I haven't seen it in a few months, but yes I do believe it is still standing. I would love to go inside it and take some pictures, but obviously, nobody is allowed inside it.


Yeah, I always wanted to explore it, but was fairly certain I'd get arrested for trespassing (that or run afoul of a booby-trap... that place is creepy).

The pictures I posted above were taken by somebody who risked a trespassing charge to get some interesting pictures inside and out:

Link Here

---

Back to the weather - we're in between Winter Storm Warnings here in Nederland. Yesterday's storm dropped about 10 or 11" of snow near Nederland. We got a little break today, but it looks like banded precip is setting up over the area again... Our current warning calls for 9-18" more by tomorrow night.



I'm not tired of winter yet... I'm just tired of driving in it. :)
Here's wavetracker.. nothing really showing up there yet..
If this forecast is verified by week 2, the atlantic is going to warm again...
After 8 years, you guys finally get to hear my voice.

My first video-blog is up.
CybrTeddy's 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast! - 4/15/13
Quoting SLU:
The GFS rainfall forecast is beginning to fall in line with the North American Multi-Model (NMME) consensus on showing heavy rainfall in the eastern Caribbean this month. Interestingly, the NMME and the UKMET also show this rainy pattern continuing through the hurricane season which is usually an indication of an active ITCZ, robust wave train and multiple tropical cyclones passing through the area. Only the ECMWF doesn't show above average rainfall across the MDR which I would like to treat as an outlier at this time with all due respect to the ECMWF.






I love that kind of forecast for the E Carib!!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
hydrus,what is the latest from GFS/ECMWF on the NAO?
Seems like the most efficient solution would be to get rid of the National Weather Service’s labor union.
The outbreak from April 16, 2011 was largely over by this time, in North Carolina at least. Have I ever mentioned I live in a tornado-free bubble?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
After 8 years, you guys finally get to hear my voice.

My first video-blog is up.
CybrTeddy's 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast! - 4/15/13


I clearly don't understand dates. I mean to say in the video it's Tuesday April 16th, 2013.
Quoting goodsign:
Seems like the most efficient solution would be to get rid of the National Weather Service’s labor union.

Just offshore the jobs.
Quoting goodsign:
Seems like the most efficient solution would be to get rid of the National Weather Service’s labor union.
This nation was at its strongest, most productive, and most financially stable when labor unions flourished. It's no coincidence that America's once thriving middle class has eroded at roughly the same rate as unions have been broken up by forces that fear workers having a voice. Calls to further do away with organizations such as the National Weather Service Employees Organization are misguided and, frankly, suicidal...
594. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


I love that kind of forecast for the E Carib!!


As long as there aren't any big storms i'm fine with it too
The Weather Channel just answered the question a lot were wondering--and the opposers of the organization probably aren't happy with the answer:

If TWC names Zeus and another major storm comes that deserves a name, they--TWC-- will use the list provided by high school students from a school in Montana.

That means we start over at A. The first name is "Achilles".
Quoting Levi32:
So... *cough* I give you the 12z CMC 240-hour forecast for the eastern Pacific...

Two tropical cyclones <_<



By the way, CMC data just this morning was made free-to-access by the Canadian government, so I can now plot the CMC out to 240 hours at both 0z and 12z for all parameters at full resolution. That's a way better deal than the current GFS.


Quoting twest:
Government agencies should do all they an to operate within their budgets and these deficits should no longer be tolerated. A 20-25% reduction in spending throughout the government can probably be achieved with minimum housekeeping.

Don't be surprised and when the media tie in weather-related disasters to the 4 day furlough. Dr. Masters is already doing it in his post. If August 30 is of such great concern (and understandably so) why not start the furlough today or in May? With so many scientists and so much analysis why do they not select the calmest and most uneventful periods for the furlough?

I know I won't make many friends around here with this post but these are simplistic fear tactics.

If folks would bother to take off their anti-government blinders and do a little research, they'd realize that at least some of the four furlough dates were chosen specifically to extend specific existing government holidays, providing extra cost savings. (August 30 is, of course, the Friday before Labor Day, meaning that offices will be closed for four consecutive days.)

I've seen the term "scare tactics" thrown around here a bunch today, but if you ask me they're being thrown at the wrong people. That is, it's not the NWS or Dr. Masters trying to "scare" people; it's congressional know-nothings hoping to slash necessary programs by selling the lie that the nation is broke and austerity is the only solution.
Quoting SLU:


As long as there aren't any big storms i'm fine with it too


I agree.

All we need here is regular rains to keep the islands green... which is unfortunately not the case in the N Leewards yet.
Anybody knows if the SAL is below or above average for this time of the year? or dosen't exist connection that can apply for this time of the year for what could be for the peak of the season
Quoting Neapolitan:
This nation was at its strongest, most productive, and most financially stable when labor unions flourished. It's no coincidence that America's once thriving middle class has eroded at roughly the same rate as unions have been broken up by forces that fear workers having a voice. Calls to further do away with organizations such as the National Weather Service Employees Organization are misguided and, frankly, suicidal...


I will give you half of a plus, you started good.
The west African monsoon hasn't started yet and it doesn't typically get going until late May or early June. So west Africa is very dry as is typical this time of year and dust storms are active.
ok guys I changed my season forecast numbers from 17/11/4 to 19/13/5
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The outbreak from April 16, 2011 was largely over by this time, in North Carolina at least. Have I ever mentioned I live in a tornado-free bubble?


I remember that day... I saw a funnel cloud (or what looked to be a funnel cloud) in the Southern part of my County.
607. etxwx
Uh oh, this can't be good...as big as rats??
It will likely take barrels of beer to catch these critters...

Giant snail invasion forces Floridians to walk for their lives
By Eoin O'Carroll, CS Monitor Staff / April 15, 2013

Excerpt: As big as a rat and with a taste for building materials, the African giant land snail is proving to be a slow-moving disaster for the Sunshine State.

Originally from Kenya and Tanzania, the gigantic gastropod is a notorious invasive species, having already established itself throughout Africa, China, India, many Pacific islands, the Caribbean, and Hawaii. The first reported sighting came in September 2011, and since then, according to Reuters, officials in Miami-Dade have caught some 117,000 snails, at a rate of about 1,000 per week.

That rate, which gives a new definition to the term "snail's pace," is likely to increase in the coming weeks, as the state's rainy season begins and the snails emerge from underground hibernation.

In addition to dining on a wide range of plants – more than 500 varieties, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services – the massive mollusks also gnaw through stucco, plaster, and even concrete, which contain calcium that the snails need to grow their shells.

The snails can also harbor a parasitic lungworm thought to be dangerous to humans, although no there have been no reported cases in the United States of humans being infected by the snails.

More here.

If we have 13 hurricanes this year I will be surprised.
local WFO HWOs

huntsville

.WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP XPCTED WELL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY THU.
THERMO PROFILES/SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE CONVECTION
TRENDING MORE LINEAR THU NIGHT...AS A SQUALL LINE FORMS ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED/DISCRETE CELLS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS...A
LTHOUGH THIS THREAT
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
TAPER OFF FROM THE W HEADING INTO THE MORNING HRS FRI AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA TO THE E.

BMX

WILL THE LINE HOLD TOGETHER AS
WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY? IT
IS REALLY LOOKING LIKE THE ANSWER TO THIS IS GOING TO BE YES.
SOME
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD PERSIST FOR THIS LINE TO FEED
OFF OF...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE MORE OF A DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TWO OF THE MAJOR PLAYERS WILL
LIKELY BE AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET AT 925-850MB THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO PROVIDE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NECESSARY
TO KEEP THE LINE TOGETHER. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND ORIENTATION
WILL BE THE WILD CARD IN THIS FORECAST. THE ORIENTATION OF THESE
SHEAR VECTORS ARE PARALLEL ALONG THE FRONT...BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEY ARE VEERED JUST ENOUGH TO THROW IN THE QUESTION OF
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...AND
POTENTIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.


GA

MAIN ENERGY IS REMAINING IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER H8 WINDS OF 50+KTS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG GUSTS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE WORDING OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel just answered the question a lot were wondering--and the opposers of the organization probably aren't happy with the answer:

If TWC names Zeus and another major storm comes that deserves a name, they--TWC-- will use the list provided by high school students from a school in Montana.

That means we start over at A. The first name is "Achilles".



Now I can sleep better!
etxwx converting them into escargot and exporting the product could be a useful way of dealing with the problem ;)
Wouldn't a winter storm named Achilles tendon to be a pain so late in the season?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
After 8 years, you guys finally get to hear my voice.

My first video-blog is up.
CybrTeddy's 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast! - 4/15/13


Nice Dude!

The april mslp from the euro raised an eyebrow but its long range so well see.
614. etxwx
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
etxwx converting them into escargot and exporting the product could be a useful way of dealing with the problem ;)


We're gonna need a bigger tub of garlic butter...;-)
Quoting hurricane23:


Nice Dude!

The april mslp from the euro raised an eyebrow but its long range so well see.
Euro think we are going towards and El nino.
616. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


I agree.

All we need here is regular rains to keep the islands green... which is unfortunately not the case in the N Leewards yet.


Yes .. I remember last year was brutal up north.
Quoting etxwx:


We're gonna need a bigger tub of garlic butter...;-)



Escargot gros!
Quoting allahgore:



Now I can sleep better!


Yeah but you see it is causing a stir...more people are talking about the weather channel now than before....this is exactly what they want....if people do not like them naming storms then they need to stop giving them the publicity.....errrr it really irks me to death
Quoting Gearsts:
Euro think we are going towards and El nino.


Would not rule out later this year.

Recent downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has brought warmer waters to the E-pac and has erased the negative sea surface temp anomalies.
Quoting hurricane23:


Would not rule out later this year.

Recent downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has brought warmer waters to the E-pac and has erased the negative SST anomalies.

A busy severe weather day tomorrow, especially for the Oklahoma area. Risk for some tornadoes, a few tornadoes may be strong. Also a good chance of damaging winds and hail. There is a moderate risk area stretching from Northern Texas, through Central and into NE Oklahoma, into extreme SE Kansas and extreme SW Missouri, possibly even extreme NW Arkansas especially during the evening hours. It is going to be an interesting Wednesday for sure.

Just to make it more clear....

Threats:

Damaging winds

Large Hail

Some tornadoes(a few strong)

 

 
If this pans out, it would not only be a rare event, but could damage plants and nursery trees...240 hours is way out to evaluate anything.. .
Early april atl warm-up

Nino region 3.4 has cooled quite substantially over the past two days. Further cooling is likely.

Quoting hurricane23:


Would not rule out later this year.

Recent downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has brought warmer waters to the E-pac and has erased the negative sea surface temp anomalies.


The 30 day SOI has been positive since early March and looks like it will continue thst way for a while.

Hydrus there have been freezes in the first week of May in Tupelo MS and 34 in Tallahassee FL as well so it could happen again.
Hydrus there is plenty of cold still in Canada in Alaska. It could happen if the Storm(low) could swing down far south enough......
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hydrus there have been freezes in the first week of May in Tupelo MS and 34 in Tallahassee FL as well so it could happen again.
I like the cool weather, but the trees have started bloom and could be damaged, they do not look good after such an event. Someone posted this tidbit on our little TN Weather Spot.. Posted by Toot. think the models are hinting at a late season snow storm for much of the Appalachians. At least thats my take on the powerful LPS that looks to be a late season inland runner around the 22nd-23rd timeframe.
And the sun poured its rays into the sea, which became as blood.

(in temperature and color scale)
There was the famous snow in May 1992 in the southern Appalachians. And in 1910 on April 25 there was 1.5" of snow in Atlanta, 4" in Albany GA and snow flurries in Pensacola FL.
The Subsurface warm waters that had been at Nino 1 2 / Nino 3 and part of Nino 3.4 in the past few weeks are almost gone. What we have to watch is if that big warm pool in the Western Pacific slides eastward.



NC State University 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 Hurricanes, 3-6 Major Hurricanes
Link
Quoting lostinohio:
Hydrus there is plenty of cold still in Canada in Alaska. It could happen if the Storm(low) could swing down far south enough......
It is too far out to consider it seriously, but i am interested to see what happens. May fizzle, or give the growers a headache.
636. etxwx
More invasives in the news...
Soil bacteria may be answer to cheatgrass battle
by Annette Cary | Tri-City Herald via McClatchy 4.16.13

Excerpt: A naturally occurring soil bacteria could give native bunch grasses at the Hanford Reach National Monument the competitive advantage they need to edge out cheatgrass. The invasive cheatgrass is the scourge of the monument, carpeting the ground like a lawn and providing the continuous fuel that allows wildfire to spread quickly. Native grasses, in contrast, dot the ground in clumps.

"Now we're seeing fires that are bigger and are burning more acres," said Michael Gregg, a land management research and demonstration biologist at the Mid-Columbia River Refuges Complex. The wildfires kill the sagebrush and convert the historic shrub steppe land to annual grass lands composed mostly of cheatgrass, he said. It's a cycle that leads to more frequent, quickly spreading wildfires. But field trials on the Saddle Mountain area of the Hanford Reach National Monument and elsewhere in the state, spraying with a carefully selected strain of the Pseudomonas fluorescens, has caused cheatgrass almost to disappear.

Read more here: Link
Quoting etxwx:
Uh oh, this can't be good...as big as rats??
It will likely take barrels of beer to catch these critters...

Giant snail invasion forces Floridians to walk for their lives
By Eoin O'Carroll, CS Monitor Staff / April 15, 2013

Excerpt: As big as a rat and with a taste for building materials, the African giant land snail is proving to be a slow-moving disaster for the Sunshine State.

Originally from Kenya and Tanzania, the gigantic gastropod is a notorious invasive species, having already established itself throughout Africa, China, India, many Pacific islands, the Caribbean, and Hawaii. The first reported sighting came in September 2011, and since then, according to Reuters, officials in Miami-Dade have caught some 117,000 snails, at a rate of about 1,000 per week.

That rate, which gives a new definition to the term "snail's pace," is likely to increase in the coming weeks, as the state's rainy season begins and the snails emerge from underground hibernation.

In addition to dining on a wide range of plants – more than 500 varieties, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services – the massive mollusks also gnaw through stucco, plaster, and even concrete, which contain calcium that the snails need to grow their shells.

The snails can also harbor a parasitic lungworm thought to be dangerous to humans, although no there have been no reported cases in the United States of humans being infected by the snails.

More here.



Uh, lots of salt?
Quoting wxgeek723:


Uh, lots of salt?


I prefer my solution of exporting them as escargot :)
Quoting wxgeek723:


Uh, lots of salt?


Salt = Bad for snails. Also bad for everything else. :D
Check out this link for early and late season snows in Pennsylvania. You can see the pages before and after this one too.
Will be interesting to see which one verifies... in association with the placement of the cold front.

GFS:



NAM:

Quoting Doppler22:

I remember that day... I saw a funnel cloud (or what looked to be a funnel cloud) in the Southern part of my County.



I went directly through the hail core, which contained spiked hail the size of golfballs...isolated stones approaching baseball size...remember riding through the center of town and looking at the destruction, being in shock seeing my hometown in ruins
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Check out this link for early and late season snows in Pennsylvania. You can see the pages before and after this one too.
Far out, 15 to 24 inches in mid may...
Quoting Thrawst:
Will be interesting to see which one verifies... in association with the placement of the cold front.

GFS:



NAM:


Trends this afternoon -- with the warm front already pushing northward -- suggest that the GFS and ECMWF will win the battle.

A setup depicted by the two would require the issuance of a high risk.
646. etxwx
More research stations planned for Antarctica
By ZHANG KUN in Shanghai (China Daily) 4.10.13

Excerpt: China plans to increase its presence in Antarctica with two more research stations, an official in charge of the country's scientific programs in the polar regions said on Tuesday.

The two new facilities are expected to join the existing three Chinese stations on Antarctica — Changcheng (Great Wall), Zhongshan, and Kunlun — by 2015, said Xu Shijie, an official with the China Arctic and Antarctic Administration.

The new summer station will be built on Princess Elizabeth Land, which is on the east side of the continent. The site is 520 km from Zhongshan Station, another of China's research facilities.

"China has had a considerable advantage in the eastern part of Antarctica, and the new station will optimize the layout and strengthen our future development," Xu said.

The new facility, which will be started in the second half of this year and completed next year, will provide support for the operations of inland station Kunlun, and facilitate China's expedition on the Grove Mountains, which consists of glacier mapping and studies on climate change, he said.

Complete story here.
This Guadeloupe system has me worried. I think folks with interests in the Wilmington area should begin to go over their plans.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trends this afternoon -- with the warm front already pushing northward -- suggest that the GFS and ECMWF will win the battle.

A setup depicted by the two would require the issuance of a high risk.

At least for my area, the NWS is choosing the GFS over the NAM. I think there is a decent chance of seeing a high risk.
Quoting ncstorm:
speaking of maps






Not buying it, it will cool down but I think it will be more moderate than suggested there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nino region 3.4 has cooled quite substantially over the past two days. Further cooling is likely.



Doesn't surprise me, I mentioned in my video that this would level out and that the recent cooling of the Nino 3.4 region would signal this. It's still not as drastic as the CFS was predicting (or is it?).
Quoting stormchaser19:
NC State University 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast: 13-17 named storms, 7-10 Hurricanes, 3-6 Major Hurricanes
Link


thanks.. I'm including that one too in my graph
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
We export $300 million dollars worth of snails a year. Who knew?



When we become known for exporting snails, you know our best days our behind us...

;)
My Forecast for this hurricane season: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 major
Link Another strong Earth Quake for today the world is shivering,
sst compare 2012/2013 april

657. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trends this afternoon -- with the warm front already pushing northward -- suggest that the GFS and ECMWF will win the battle.

A setup depicted by the two would require the issuance of a high risk.



12Z


15Z


18Z


21Z
What's going on with all the shaking in Oklahoma????? It has been an awful busy day of activity. Aftershocks from the 4.3? surely not? Could there be something else?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trends this afternoon -- with the warm front already pushing northward -- suggest that the GFS and ECMWF will win the battle.

A setup depicted by the two would require the issuance of a high risk.


Not fully sold on the idea yet, but will see at 7am tomorrow morning what the result is!
Quoting lostinohio:
What's going on with all the shaking in Oklahoma????? It has been an awful busy day of activity. Aftershocks from the 4.3? surely not? Could there be something else?


Some people have blamed those recent earthquakes there on fraking
661. beell
500mb heights on the rise a bit over the southeast. The ridge is still hanging on for now

Nashville:
04/16 00Z 5790m
04/16 12Z 5800m
04/17 00Z 5830m

Atlanta:
04/16 00Z 5840m
04/16 12Z 5850m
04/17 00Z 5860m

weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding
hey guys...I need 11 more entries to reach my goal of 100 predictions... who wants to be the 90th?
664. txjac
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey guys...I need 11 more entries to reach my goal of 100 predictions... who wants to be the 90th?


Just a guess as I have no knowledge like the rest of you here (just come here as I like you guys!)

17/10/4
Quoting txjac:


Just a guess as I have no knowledge like the rest of you here (just come here as I like you guys!)

17/10/4


ok I'll update your numbers (I added you on March 12)...
Nice dog btw.
666. txjac
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ok I'll update your numbers (I added you on March 12)...
Nice dog btw.


Thanks and thanks

She's my best friend in the world ...love coming home to her at night ...her name is Lylla

I just rescued a new dog a couple days ago ...a puppy about five months old ..its a mutt ...smaller than all my cats ...Lylla loves him

Can you tell that I am in to animals and rescuing them?
Quoting Gearsts:
Euro think we are going towards and El nino.


Hope El Nino waits till december and the following dry boring season... then dies before august of next year :-)
Quoting Catherdr:


Some people have blamed those recent earthquakes there on fraking
A study published recently links the earthquakes in Oklahoma in 2011 to waste water injection wells from oil drilling. Link

There's enough similarity with the fracking process that people are worried about earthquakes there too Link

Edited to change "last year" to "2011"
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey guys...I need 11 more entries to reach my goal of 100 predictions... who wants to be the 90th?

I am a novice, but i will say 16/10/6
Quoting txjac:


Thanks and thanks

She's my best friend in the world ...love coming home to her at night ...her name is Lylla

I just rescued a new dog a couple days ago ...a puppy about five months old ..its a mutt ...smaller than all my cats ...Lylla loves him

Can you tell that I am in to animals and rescuing them?


I love dogs... Golden retrievers are my favorites.
I want to adopt one as a puppy and raise it as part of my family in the future...
Quoting belizeit:
Link Another strong Earth Quake for today the world is shivering,


Aitape is an area of Papua New Guinea known for a recent tsunami that occurred following a magnitude 7.0 quake in 1998.

My deep express condolences to everyone affected by yesterday's events at Boston.
Quoting lostinohio:

I am a novice, but i will say 16/10/6


hello 90th!

10 more to go...
Great Video CybrTed. :) Glad to see you making videos. Will definitely be watching this season!
Im sticking my nose out there this season with a higher-end prediction this year. Ive Low-Balled every season since 2010.

2010:
15 Named Storms (19 Storms)
8 Hurricanes (12 Hurricanes)
5 Major Hurricanes (5 Major Hurricanes)

2011:
16 Named Storms (19 Named Storms)
9 Hurricanes (7 Hurricanes)
6 Major Hurricanes (4 Major Hurricanes)

2012:
13 Named Storms (19 Named Storms)
7 Hurricanes (10 Hurricanes)
3 Major Hurricanes (2 Major Hurricanes)

2013 Prediction: *Highest Numbers Predicted by me*
18 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

Just feel like there's a lot of positive factors coming into this season that only tell the story of an Active Season. Beside the very few negatives ive seen.
second >5.0 in this area today:

M5.1 - 19km SW of Yuhu, China
2013-04-17 01:46:02 UTC
Link

Quoting belizeit:
Link Another strong Earth Quake for today the world is shivering,
its coming soon.
Instead of past seasons of Low Balling my April predictions and working my numbers up as the season goes on. Im starting high and will decrease them if I feel like they need to be.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Instead of past seasons of Low Balling my April predictions and working my numbers up as the season goes on. Im starting high and will decrease them if I feel like they need to be.


no problem with me..just let me know
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no problem with me..just let me know

Oh. I wasn't directing that toward you. Im not updating my Predictions until June 1.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh. I wasn't directing that toward you. Im not updating my Predictions until June 1.

In the offseason I predict every 2 months.
December, February, and April. Then I Verify my Predictions June 1 and make changes as I see them during that time.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh. I wasn't directing that toward you. Im not updating my Predictions until June 1.


everything cool..
Last comment. How the heck is Imelda still alive sitting out there? :/
Storms are almost here- the yappy dog alarm just went off :)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1036 PM AST TUE APR 16 2013

.UPDATE...THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
QUICKLY DIMINISHED AND DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET...WHILE SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP AND AFFECTS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCED AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS IN ISOLATED
SPOTS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER LAND BY MIDNIGHT...
HOWEVER BY EARLY MORNING EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. THE PROXIMITY OF A BROAD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...WILL HELP ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE
STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MODERATE DOWNPOURS AS
THE SHOWERS PASS BY. A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
BASED ON PRESENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BUT NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...PENDING UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE.
Remember the extended CMC this morning showed tropical cyclones in the EPAC?



I went and plotted the CMC ensembles, and found that, if we consider any low pressure center stronger than 1005mb a potential tropical cyclone, then ~6-7 out of 21 members actually agreed with the operational run.

Each red number represents a low pressure center from an individual ensemble member. The colors are the ensemble spread, which indicates how much the members differ from each other. In the tropics this is usually low, but in the presence of tropical storms, it rises due to the differences in central pressure between the members.

Click for larger.

RE 683 TropicsWeather:

We had a great downpour this afternoon over here. I don't think I've seen that kind of rain for months! Just wish it had lasted a couple of hours instead of the half hour that we got.

Thanks for your update!

Lindy
I'm assuming that the cold content of our oceans was factored in....depth x length x width x height.

Then...amount of cloud cover?

Could this cause the lag in warming?
...
My cousin is a teacher and he does a thought-provoking activity with his classes. First two students stand at opposite ends of a table, each keeping one hand in a cup of water. My cousin eventually asks them to come together and switch their wet hands into a single bowl of water. “What is the temperature of the water?” my cousin asks. Inevitably, one student will reply “hot” and the other “cold.” My cousin asks the class, “How can they disagree?”

Of course, before putting their hand in the center bowl, one student’s hand has been soaking in cold water and the other’s in hot. Temperature perception is relative: their opinion of the water temperature in the bowl is biased by their past experience. My cousin does this student activity as part of a lesson about diversity and cultural competence, but it is an equally good reminder that we construct reality, with better approximations if we correct distorted information.

When we make scientific observations, we try to make them as unbiased as possible, and often rely on tools and instruments for objectivity. In my cousin’s class, a thermometer could have created an agreed upon reality. Similarly, we each need logic tools to realize that all media is a representation of reality – if we don’t bring this realization into our consciousness, we are apt to forget and let our own reality become distorted: fostering a culture of over-consumption, eating disorders, sexual violence, and climate change deniers.....


TOR:CON details:

IL south - 4
IL central - 3
KS central, east - 3
KY - 2 or less
MO central - 4
OK southwest - 6
OK central - 5
OK, northwest - 3
OK east - 4
TX northwest near Wichita Falls - 6
Link for #687


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/20 13/04/16/media-is-unreal-bring-media-literacy-into -science-literacy/




The most amazing thing about media literacy is this: the principles align with types of scientific reasoning. This isn't immediately apparent because most science education curricula has a strong focus on the scientific method. Less common, but equally important, are different types of reasoning. You need critical thinking skills in science. Science is more than observation. It is more than setting up experiments to test hypotheses. Underlying all scientific methods is a system of thinking.

Media Literacy education is akin to Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit which summarizes fallacies of logic and rhetoric so that individuals can create and identify well-reasoned arguments AND recognize myths and fraudulent arguments. As Sagan wrote in A Demon-Haunted World, "Baloney, bamboozles, careless thinking, flimflam, and wishes disguised as facts are not restricted to parlor magic and ambiguous advice on matters of the heart. Unfortunately they ripple through mainstream political, social, religious, and economic issues in every nation."
Gnite everyone...

In anticipation to the possible significant severe weather tomorrow I am going to display my tornado map for the first time in a new blog...

Tomorrow could be the big day for severe weather
691. twest
Quoting Neapolitan:
If folks would bother to take off their anti-government blinders and do a little research, they'd realize that at least some of the four furlough dates were chosen specifically to extend specific existing government holidays, providing extra cost savings. (August 30 is, of course, the Friday before Labor Day, meaning that offices will be closed for four consecutive days.)

I've seen the term "scare tactics" thrown around here a bunch today, but if you ask me they're being thrown at the wrong people. That is, it's not the NWS or Dr. Masters trying to "scare" people; it's congressional know-nothings hoping to slash necessary programs by selling the lie that the nation is broke and austerity is the only solution.


No, the term hasn't been thrown around enough nor do many realize how frequently they are misled by headlines and "hit pieces".

Extend weekends/holidays for maximum savings? Not too many are going to take that very seriously. We have agencies operating with a deficit for years and suddenly they are striving for maximum savings by extending government holidays at NOAA during peak hurricane season? Lol :-)









Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey guys...I need 11 more entries to reach my goal of 100 predictions... who wants to be the 90th?


16-9-4
Global models are forecasting the front from the northwest to pass over my area early next week, bringing in some showery weather.

3 comments in 6 years twest? You must be very wise :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
3 comments in 6 years twest? You must be very wise :)



LOL




i no am not twest but i found that funny
The event is getting closer to the range of the HRRR, which is showing a pretty healthy smattering of ML CAPE along the Red River tomorrow morning.

Quoting Levi32:
Remember the extended CMC this morning showed tropical cyclones in the EPAC?



I went and plotted the CMC ensembles, and found that, if we consider any low pressure center stronger than 1005mb a potential tropical cyclone, then ~6-7 out of 21 members actually agreed with the operational run.

Each red number represents a low pressure center from an individual ensemble member. The colors are the ensemble spread, which indicates how much the members differ from each other. In the tropics this is usually low, but in the presence of tropical storms, it rises due to the differences in central pressure between the members.

Click for larger.

Ensemble Spreads...nice

Keep up the good work Levi, I'm loving the new products. The standard plots you have (i.e. 500mb heights) are nice but I especially like the unique products available on your site (daily SST analysis, VP anom, u-wind anom, WS anom, precip anom, and now ens spreads). Keep the unique products coming!
The 01Z run of the Earth System Research Laboratory's RAP is very aggressive with tomorrow's outbreak in Texas. Don't necessarily think it will verify, but I for one would welcome our convective overlords.





Our dry smudge of a shortwave has begun pushing its way inland into Mexico.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NW OK...SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170541Z - 170715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NW OK AND SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 4O TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW TX...WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS WHERE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABLE
ACROSS THE MCD AREA...STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES LATE
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE NWD ACROSS SCNTRL KS WITH
CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/17/2013


well, here it is.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND OK
TO EASTERN KS/SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROMINENT/NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE GREAT BASIN/
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH PHASED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS
NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX. NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OK/NORTHWEST TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTHWARD PUSH
AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO LATE PERIOD SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST...
WELL-ABOVE TYPICAL GUIDANCE SPREAD CONTINUES INTO THE DAY 1
PERIOD...ACCENTUATED BY A MUCH MORE NORTHWARD AND SEEMINGLY LESS
LIKELY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF.
AMONG OTHER UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS A FACTOR FOR ONLY MODEST
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

INITIALLY...ELEVATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND ADJACENT MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

FARTHER SOUTH...A MORE WIDESPREAD/SURFACE BASED TSTM THREAT WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY INTO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY IN
GENERAL VICINITY OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE NOT
NECESSARILY LIKELY...THERE MAY BE SOME POSSIBILITY THAT TSTMS
DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX INTO EASTERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN THE OZARKS...AND POTENTIALLY
BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNINHIBITED
BOUNDARY LAYER. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DOES SEEM MORE PROBABLE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT VICINITY OF DRYLINE/COMPOSITE FRONT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BIT STRONGER HEATING/MASS CONVERGENCE. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.
ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD/AFTER
DARK...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK IN VICINITY
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS OK INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY MIDDLE MS VALLEY
MIDWEST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS AND
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MAINLY THROUGH
THE EVENING IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE NOCTURNALLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...LARGE HAIL
MAY BECOME THE MOST PROBABLE/MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN ACROSS THE
REGION.

...TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIURNALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE FORCING
ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL BE MODEST AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC BOUTS OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..GUYER/MOSIER.. 04/17/2013





Significant severe weather is on tap for parts of the Southern Plains and Midwest during later today. SPC has issued a moderate risk for portions of the Southern Plains, including the states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. Large hail appears to be the greatest threat across the aforementioned regions. Tornadoes and damaging winds are also expected.
Good Morning Folks!..here comes our next system........
Doing the math on the severe probabilities and the square mileage they cover, the SPC is leading us to expect around 30 tornadoes today, with maybe 4 of them significant (EF2-EF5). Not a major outbreak, but not shabby.

The Day 2 outlook doesn't sound like they're expecting much in the way of tornadoes, but of concern is the sheer size and population density of the area in the Slight Risk area—65 million people!
Anyone know forecast for North Indian Ocean over next few weeks? Any storms brewing or possible?
Morning everyone!

Evening Aussie!
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Doing the math on the severe probabilities and the square mileage they cover, the SPC is leading us to expect around 30 tornadoes today, with maybe 4 of them significant (EF2-EF5). Not a major outbreak, but not shabby.


Hmmm...I'm realizing I did the math wrong here, since a probability within 25 miles of a point works out not to a probability for every 625 sq. mi. area, but for every 1,960 sq. mi area. That would mean that we should only expect around 9 tornadoes today, only one of them significant. But that seems implausibly low, given my experience with Moderate Risk forecasts in the past.
Good morning everyone.

The SPC has fully included me in the slight risk area with damaging winds and isolates tornadoes the main threats. Tomorrow may also be a moderate risk for areas farther south of me.


DTX HWO
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR POWERFUL TROUGH CENTERED OVER
LAS VEGAS...SWINGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...GOOD
MOISTURE (SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S) IS LOCATED UP TO THE
OHIO RIVER. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO
SURGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...AND THE QUESTION IS
HOW CLEANLY WILL THIS WARM FRONT CLEAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND WHAT
KIND OF SURFACE DEW PTS WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE STATE...AS
LOWER 60S IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF GREEN UP OVER THE AREA. THE
EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OBVIOUSLY IMPACTS THE INSTABILITY AND
SEVERE CHANCES. WIND FIELDS ARE STELLAR...AS 850 MB WINDS ARE AROUND
60 KNOTS...SO MEAGER INSTABILITY OR NOT...THERE IS NO QUESTION THERE
IS A CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND EXTREME 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO NEED TO ANALYZE
TORNADO THREAT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY.
Good morning from Niagara Falls, my family and I drove up here for a school vacation week trip yesterday, it's very nice! Today is going to be an interesting day for severe weather, as the SPC notes much higher than average model spread. This would seem to suggest above average bust potential, but also potential for a really big day if the more aggressive models verify. I think the spread will prevent an upgrade to high risk, I would expect them to leave tornado probabilities at 15% hatched.


Good morning everybody and Good evening Aussie!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning from Niagara Falls, my family and I drove up here for a school vacation week trip yesterday, it's very nice! Today is going to be an interesting day for severe weather, as the SPC notes much higher than average model spread. This would seem to suggest above average bust potential, but also potential for a really big day if the more aggressive models verify. I think the spread will prevent an upgrade to high risk, I would expect them to leave tornado probabilities at 15% hatched.



I went to Niagara falls a few years ago and it was fantastic! I hope you have an excellent time there.

Anyways, about the severe weather, like you said, this does have a good potential to be a bust, but if it doesn't bust we should expect a major tornado outbreak. The SPC has sometimes upgraded to a High Risk when supercells start to develop on an uncertain day like this, so I wouldn't roll out the possibility for an upgrade today.
IS IT SUMMER ALREADY?...............
SNOW IN SOME STATES TODAY BEHIND THIS FRONT............
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Scattered showers that may cause flash flooding will be the rule today as a trough moves nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 AM AST WED APR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS BY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH
PASSING ON SATURDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A 55 KNOT NORTHWEST JET WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS
HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVE OVER WATERS. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING TWO AREA OF SHOWERS...THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF ST
CROIX AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS COULD
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE EAST IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS
TO YESTERDAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE PROXIMITY OF A BROAD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...WILL HELP ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE
STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MODERATE DOWNPOURS AS
THE SHOWERS PASS BY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY BUT THE LAST MODELS RUNS ARE SUGGESTING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT NOT AS WIDES SPREAD AS EXPECTED ON EARLIER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFTER 17/16Z WITH NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ AS WELL AS THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TJPS AND
TJBQ. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS...PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THIS WIND INCREASE WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE WINDS WAVES FROM THE EAST. A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT TO
EXERCISE CAUTION MOST AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING THURSDAY.


&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.12 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.65 SET IN
1981.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 60 60 40 40
STT 85 75 86 75 / 50 40 40 30
That tornado risk depicted by the SPC looks... funny...
Quoting LargoFl:
IS IT SUMMER ALREADY?...............


Tampa was only 1 degree below the all time record high for April and broke the daily record by 4 degrees, yikes!

My mom called me to tell me that my weather station back home peaked at 93 yesterday. I have a professional style weather station so I'm quite sure that is accurate, especially since Clearwater which is about 4 miles away got to 92 officially.
Lots of rain on tap for FL and many other areas across the C & E US.

Many areas across E C FL are already above normal for April rain wise and it looks like another 2" to 3" over the coming days.

GFS says the rainy season is starting up across FL come Friday. Very interesting if we are indeed getting into our summer pattern already.


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
ILLINOIS.

WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...AND KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL MERGE
INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.


STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/17/2013
Morning all, I don't there is anyone here I have to say Good Evening to.

Cyclone-prone remote community gets weather radar

New RADAR Here

The Bureau of Meteorology has installed a weather radar in the remote community of Warruwi on South Goulburn Island in the Northern Territory.

Situated off the coast of Arnhem Land, the Goulburn Islands are a real hot spot for cyclones, and were severely damaged by Cyclone Monica in 2006.

However, the region has been a blackspot in terms of coverage and monitoring for the weather bureau - until now.

Warruwi elder, Bunug Galaminda, says the official opening has been a day of celebration for the community.

"The school kids are dancing, there's plenty of clap-sticks and didgeridoo... we're celebrating and very grateful that the weather people have chosen Warruwi to set up this radar," he said.

"With the radar set up now, I think we'll have quicker and more accurate information on cyclones every year now."

Angeline Pressard, from the Bureau of Meteorology, says the radar is a state-of-the-art tool, which will help the bureau during all sorts of weather events.

"Not only for the community of Warruwi, it's great for the entire north coast of the Northern Territory," she said.

"It's a great tool for the bureau and its forecasters (because) it gives us better monitoring capability to provide better forecasts for the people of the Top End."


- ABC
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey guys...I need 11 more entries to reach my goal of 100 predictions... who wants to be the 90th?

16/9/2 (it's on the low side...I normally predict high)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hello 90th!

10 more to go...



18, 7 ,4
The Great Lakes need this rain bad as the lakes are at the Lowest levels ever recorded. My wife is from Chicago and I remember vacationing up there and noticed that Lake Michigan was down 5' (feet) last summer.

LANSING -- Low water levels and other problems facing the Great Lakes will be the focus of a forum in Lansing Wednesday.

The head of Michigan's Office of the Great Lakes and other policymakers will discuss the declining levels as well as the impact of fresh water storage and diversion.

The forum will also address which policies will best protect the vast water resource while meeting demands for freshwater and the valuable passageway.

Some of the experts on hand during the event include, Jon Allan leads the Great Lakes office, a branch of the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, Michael Jones of Michigan State University's Quantitative Fisheries Center and Jennifer Read, deputy director of the University of Michigan Water Center.

Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit the lowest water levels ever recorded on the Great Lakes this year.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said tests taken in January show the lakes were 29 inches below their long-term average and had declined 17 inches since January 2012.

The other Great Lakes, Superior, Erie and Ontario were also well below average.

Scientists say the drought and other natural forces, along with dredging of rivers that drain from the lakes, have contributed to the level drops.

Low water causes economic concerns by forcing cargo ships to carry lighter loads, leaving boat docks high and dry, and damaging fish spawning areas.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported a preliminary new record low water level for Lake Michigan-Huron for the second month in a row.

The new record low of 175.57 meters or 576.02 feet is not only the lowest January monthly average water level ever recorded, but also the lowest monthly average ever recorded for any month over the official period of record for Great Lakes water levels, which extends back to 1918.



Still a tranquil, mostly sunny type morning before the storm.

Large, Poorly targeted or political cuts in staffing, unsung contractor cuts, attrition, cuts in training and travel, more attrition,...why does this seem so familiar?
What comes next is cuts in benefits, 50% reduction in retirement contributions, no raises or standard of living adjustments for 6 years, and increased responsibility when under trained, underpaid, understaffed workers can't keep up with ongoing and new crisis events...or so I've heard.
I'm surprised we don't give firefighters sidearms and whistles so they can teach PE, Police, and fight fires/paramedic rescue at the same time. I hope they make fireproof bullets and flame retardant roll books, first.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey guys...I need 11 more entries to reach my goal of 100 predictions... who wants to be the 90th?


17 - 8 - 3.

Did you get to 100 yet?
Scot,

I hope they fly some good shoreline LiDAR and archeologist take advantage of the low water on the Great Lakes, while it is here. Hopefully that won't be long.
Even I'm under the slight risk for the newest day 2. A large area indeed.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST...
WELL-ABOVE TYPICAL GUIDANCE SPREAD CONTINUES INTO THE DAY 1
PERIOD...ACCENTUATED BY A MUCH MORE NORTHWARD AND SEEMINGLY LESS
LIKELY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS
AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF.
AMONG OTHER UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS A FACTOR FOR ONLY MODEST
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

Edit: It is already 72 degrees Fahrenheit in Atoka, Oklahoma.

This is from Oklahoma City: Speed / Dir 13 km/h / 3.6 m/s from SE

Warm front is north of the OKC metro now, at the least. and will continue to lift northward.


Quoting biff4ugo:
Scot,

I hope they fly some good shoreline LiDAR and archeologist take advantage of the low water on the Great Lakes, while it is here. Hopefully that won't be long.


The water levels seem to be dropping every year. The we get each year the more the evaporation.
I am predicting 17-9-3
12Z sounding from DFW showing an atmosphere with loads of instability.

735. beell
Quoting Thrawst:
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST...
WELL-ABOVE TYPICAL GUIDANCE SPREAD CONTINUES INTO THE DAY 1
PERIOD...ACCENTUATED BY A MUCH MORE NORTHWARD AND SEEMINGLY LESS
LIKELY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS
AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF.
AMONG OTHER UNCERTAINTIES...THIS IS A FACTOR FOR ONLY MODEST
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY INTO
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

Edit: It is already 72 degrees Fahrenheit in Atoka, Oklahoma.

This is from Oklahoma City: Speed / Dir 13 km/h / 3.6 m/s from SE

Warm front is north of the OKC metro now, at the least. and will continue to lift northward.




I think the part of the boundary from about OKC to the NE will continue to lift NW while the the southern end will not move as much or to the SE as the cold air continues to spill in behind the developing surface low. With the dryline intersecting the boundary in SW OK. At least that is the SPC logic.

1030-1035mb surface high over the northern plains.
Hi trHUrrIXC5MMX, here's my prediction - 21-15-8. I think this year it will be very active with a few major hits on the US coast this year.
New outlook:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
MUCH OF OK...SOUTHEAST KS...WESTERN NORTH TX...AND FAR WESTERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY...

...FOCUSED AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TODAY...

...OK/WESTERN NORTH TX/SOUTHEAST KS...
THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY RETREATING
NORTHWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL OK INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY MID AFTERNOON. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OK
AND SOUTHEAST KS.

VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SHORT-TERM DETAILS
OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HANDLING OF
SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN NM.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD OK THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT 700MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 10C WILL SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN PERSISTENT LIFT AND
STRONG HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX...AND ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG
THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A RESULTANT RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OK AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN MO
THIS EVENING.

...MO/IL...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
MO/IL TODAY...WITH MODERATE CAPE VALUES ALREADY IN PLACE. OTHER
THAN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE
SUBTLE. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF HAIL IN THOSE STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP TODAY.

...MO/KS/OK/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A LARGE SQUALL LINE AFFECTING EASTERN
KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...WESTERN MO...AND NORTH TX. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 12Z.

...TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIURNALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE FORCING
ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL BE MODEST AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC
BOUTS OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/17/2013
Quoting biff4ugo:
Large, Poorly targeted or political cuts in staffing, unsung contractor cuts, attrition, cuts in training and travel, more attrition,...why does this seem so familiar?
What comes next is cuts in benefits, 50% reduction in retirement contributions, no raises or standard of living adjustments for 6 years, and increased responsibility when under trained, underpaid, understaffed workers can't keep up with ongoing and new crisis events...or so I've heard.
I'm surprised we don't give firefighters sidearms and whistles so they can teach PE, Police, and fight fires/paramedic rescue at the same time. I hope they make fireproof bullets and flame retardant roll books, first.
That's funny, but too true to make me laugh very hard. There are, unfortunately, a lot of people trying to usher draconian spending bills through the process at the moment, people working feverishly to ramrod their ideological fantasies of a no-government utopia into reality by repeatedly claiming that our national debt is too high and only harsh austerity will cure our problems. The thing is, of course, that both those statements are incorrect, and when presented together as "logic" they become outright lies. And those lies can lead to real and crippling pain, such as the forced furloughing of NWS/NOAA employees of which Dr. Masters wrote.
Worldwide (not just in the US), because of spending/expansion in the 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, and deficit spending/contraction in the last 15 years, cuts and spending reductions will have to be made just to keep the economies afloat; it is a fact of life and all of us will have to make do with less/what we have over the next 20 years.

In terms of why we are here on this blog, which primarily focuses on weather-natural disaster issues and their impact on people, you have to consider our National Weather Service/NOAA, and the related post-disaster relief Network, as a "first-responder" class designed to save lives (including the Police, Coast Guard, Medical Professionals, etc.). Tough choices to be made in the coming decades in terms of proper funding for these efforts, when juxtaposed against other interests such as social services, eduction, medical care, etc., but crippling reductions in the weather "warning" network and related post-event networks as noted above can lead to immediate loss of life in any given year/season.

Just hoping that we do not end up in a situation where funding cuts in these critical areas lead to problems with such crucial weather programs like NHC and SPC.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Scot,

I hope they fly some good shoreline LiDAR and archeologist take advantage of the low water on the Great Lakes, while it is here. Hopefully that won't be long.


When Okeechobee Lake was being saved by the last drought, we found occupation sites that had not seen air for thousands of years. Great opportunities if you can keep the potholers away.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
925MB WINDS ARE 50KTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEVERE WINDS EVEN WITH THE ABSENCE OF
ROBUST CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP WORDING IN HWO.
Interested read on GW in The American Thinker.

www.americanthinker.com/2013/04/the_warmist_crisi s.html


I would simply like to note that the sequester cuts are a reduction in the increased growth of spending from a 5% increase to a 3% increase, any actual cuts in an agency's baseline budget is the result of the refusal to uniformly reduce increase across the board. Ergo some programs will still get their 5% increase an so other programs will see a deeper reduction in increase or an actual cut. The true culprit is mismanagement.