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Tornado kills one in Mississippi, but a quiet spring for tornadoes so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

Tornadoes ripped through the U.S. on Thursday for the fourth day this week, as a slow-moving spring storm brought a variety of major weather extremes across the nation. Seven preliminary tornadoes were recorded on Thursday, and one person was killed by a tornado that hit Liberty, Mississippi. Multiple injuries were reported from a tornado that hit Shuqualak, Mississippi. The strongest verified tornadoes so far from this week's outbreak were EF-2 tornadoes that hit Hazelwood, Missouri and Botkinburg, Arkansas on Wednesday, April 9.


Figure 1. A tornado roars through Noxubee County, Mississippi on Thursday, April 11, 2013. Check out this impressive video posted to Facebook of the tornado. This is probably the same tornado that killed one person near Liberty, MS.


Figure 2. Doppler velocity image of the tornado that hit Liberty, MS on April 11, 2013. The characteristic pattern of red and green colors right next to each other, showing winds moving both towards and away from the radar, show the presence of a rotating thunderstorm just north of De Kalb, MS in this image.

A quiet 2013 tornado season so far
Thursday's tornado death brought this year's tornado death toll to three, which is well below average for this time of year. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, during January - March 2012, the U.S. had 60 tornado deaths. The preliminary tally for April tornadoes is 23, which is also well below average for the first eleven days of April. During the previous three years, 2010 - 2012, the U.S. averaged 368 tornadoes during the month of April. The quiet April for tornadoes follows a very quiet March; the preliminary March tornado tally of eighteen is the lowest for any March since 1978. The latest 10-year March average U.S. tornadoes through 2012 is 98. Here are the March tornado tallies below twenty tornadoes since 1950:

18: 2013
17:  1978
8:  1969
12:  1966
15:  1958
6:  1951

The reason for the low tornado numbers this spring is the unusually cool conditions that have kept instability levels low over the eastern two-thirds of the country. This has been due to a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which has kept a southwards-bulging portion of the jet stream in place over the eastern portion of the U.S., allowing cool air from Canada to spill southwards. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center does not have any risk areas for severe weather delineated through Sunday, but another major storm system is expected to develop over the Midwest on Tuesday, which will likely bring additional severe weather.

Jeff Masters
Frozen in Time
Frozen in Time
Hail in Olney, Tx
Hail in Olney, Tx
It was a really weird chase day today. All the storms were getting undercut by the cold front, so it was really cold underneath them. By far the coldest chasing I've ever done. One of them was able to get quite strong though despite the cold temperatures and dropped hail up to the size of tennis balls on the town of Olney, Tx.
Dark Sky Bright Lightning
Dark Sky Bright Lightning
Lightning comes in from the right of a growing supercell in eastern Colorado amid hailstones and rain.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new bog
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Hopefully, but not necessarily. If it's another shallow arctic airmass like the past one (and early indications are that it could be) and outruns the upper air system again, we'll be depending on isentropic lift again, and the models had all kinds of fits with that mechanism the past week. If it sets up right, you could get the multi-inch total that you saw yesterday morning, but if not, you end up with the .17" I got from the system or even less.



We shall see. Received 1.74" and ground is saturated which is crazy. Guess after 2.02" the week before and yesterdays 1.74" equates to a grand total of 3.76" with cooler than normal temps will hold much more moisture in April compared to summer.
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Doc !!
The EURO just wants winter to last another 100,000 years or so...Not to mention that something like this is likely to cause a lot of severe weather.
Who here knows a thing or two about Miracle Gro?

I used quite a bit on some potted plants and watered it in good, days later when I went to water again a very dark Dr Pepper color in the water was coming out of the pots. And it's still in the soil and running out when watered. It is staining the concrete and bottom of the pots that hold the water and everything. Ticking me off. It's never done this before, but I'm not doing it again after all this.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Party's over

From the previous blog....

Continued pretty cold for most of the US. I thought that the long range forecast was above normal for April? Certainly hasn't been the case. The past 30 days record lows significantly out number record highs.


(Cough cough..)
Source?
Link?
Proof?

Here is your link.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records

The cold is welcome because in another month we'll all be complaining how hot it is.




Since past midnight we have been getting very heavy rain and strong winds here, just like during a tropical storm.

now the rain is moderate, but there is still lots more to come. Expecting over 2"
already falling apart,lucky to get a shower geez.......
Next Friday we do the Dance once again............
Quoting hydrus:
I have a question on these graphs: Why is the forecast date always 12-20 to 01-05 on the top and 2-20 to 2-28 on the bottom?
Quoting SouthTampa:
I have a question on these graphs: Why is the forecast date always 12-20 to 01-05 on the top and 2-20 to 2-28 on the bottom?


who's graphs?
Thanks for the blog update Dr. Masters..
We have been fortunate this year concerning tornadoes..
Every time I see one I cringe..
Thank goodness technology has improved and warning times for folks is better..
So sorry for the injuries and loss of life yesterday..
Thanks again..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Since past midnight we have been getting very heavy rain and strong winds here, just like during a tropical storm.

now the rain is moderate, but there is still lots more to come. Expecting over 2"

Really solid isentropic lifting area right over your head. Looks miserable if you ask me.



Quoting ScottLincoln: RE:Post#513 from last blog..

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs /u-s-temperatures



Thanks for the link Scott..
If I'm reading it correctly record high temps are still out pacing lows??..
Still trying to figure it out..Lol

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Lots of rain with embedded lightning now coming ashore across W C FL. C FL could see several inches of rain today as this line looks like it's going to train across C FL as the front is stalling over this region.





I hate to be party pooper but I don't think there will be any significant activity making it onshore in the Tampa Bay area, in fact rain chances at 60% unfortunately is way too high, they should be capped at 30% The reason for this is that the front has lost all upper support and large scale lift, what is sustaining the activity is warmer gulf waters with higher instability. However in the far eastern gulf off the west coast of Florida lies a persistent instability minimum, in fact this indicates sinking air and very hostile for convection near the west coast of Florida:



With that being said, I think the west coast of Florida will unfortunately be mostly rain free at least for now. I saw this coming last night, and I'm sure forecasters did as well, but I think they were afraid to go against high rain chances depicted by models.
The eastern half of the state may still see scattered thunderstorms providing that high clouds from the thunderstorm tops in the gulf don't stall day time heating.

The fact is, water temps off the west coast of Florida are very cool for approaching mid April thanks to the coldest March in about 80 years. This is continuing to prevent thunderstorms from impacting the western side of Florida.
The way to overcome this would be with strong dynamics and significant upper support but so far this year there hasn't been a single system that has provided significant upper support for a gulf MCS.

Unfortunately, the west coast of Florida will continue to struggle to find significant enough rain for any real drought relief unless 2 things happen soon:

The first is that the shelf waters need to warm significantly, people continue to miss just how much stabilization is occurring off the coast with these cooler waters.

The second is for a system to bring strong enough upper support and dynamics to where the cooler waters have no major impact.

So if you live on the west coast of Florida, don't expect any major or consistent drought relief until either one happens.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

If 2005 and 2010 are any sort of analogues for this tornado season, expect a huge uptick in activity in May, towards the latter half of the month.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Really solid isentropic lifting area right over your head. Looks miserable if you ask me.





and to continue into the afternoon...
temperatures feel around freezing (38F temp now.)
Quoting SouthTampa:
I have a question on these graphs: Why is the forecast date always 12-20 to 01-05 on the top and 2-20 to 2-28 on the bottom?
The top indicates the date and time of the run, the bottom shows the forecast for that date.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120850
SPC AC 120850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

CORRECTED FOR SEVERE THREAT DAYS 5 AND 6

...DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE WRN U.S. ONE SIGNIFICANT
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A SFC FRONT INTO OK MONDAY AND DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OF POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE CONTINUED MOISTENING THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
MORE ROBUST ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR A DRYLINE/FRONTAL
INTERSECTION WITHIN BROAD STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SUPPORTS AN EWD SHIFT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF
MO INTO NERN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/12/2013
Quoting RitaEvac:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Hopefully, but not necessarily. If it's another shallow arctic airmass like the past one (and early indications are that it could be) and outruns the upper air system again, we'll be depending on isentropic lift again, and the models had all kinds of fits with that mechanism the past week. If it sets up right, you could get the multi-inch total that you saw yesterday morning, but if not, you end up with the .17" I got from the system or even less.



We shall see. Received 1.74" and ground is saturated which is crazy. Guess after 2.02" the week before and yesterdays 1.74" equates to a grand total of 3.76" with cooler than normal temps will hold much more moisture in April compared to summer.

The elevated t-storms after the front were a god send where I'm at. Without them the total rain was maybe .1 inch. I was ready to post a comment about Brownsville's climate shifting north to Corpus and Corpus Christi's to Houston. Of course, places 50 miles west or southwest of Houston got hardly any rain out of it.

When I came to Texas, I was struck by how quickly the trees disappear west of Houston. They turn into large shrubs and then .... By the time you get to King Ranch you have scrubby stuff growing on sand dunes.

A lot of the Lost Pines burned a few years ago. The Lost Maples are still out west of Austin in a sheltered valley. Maybe some new lost forests will hang on years and years from now if/when the dry areas expand east and north.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

If 2005 and 2010 are any sort of analogues for this tornado season, expect a huge uptick in activity in May, towards the latter half of the month.


but mainly towards oklahoma and such areas right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

If 2005 and 2010 are any sort of analogues for this tornado season, expect a huge uptick in activity in May, towards the latter half of the month.

2005 was actually very quiet throughout May for tornadoes.


Thanks for the new blog Doc!
Quoting LargoFl:
already falling apart,lucky to get a shower geez.......


It appears our shields are still up Largo :(
Good Morning,
Thanks for the new Blog Doc,
And with 290 tornadoes, May 2010 was almost spot-on average.






May 2005 had 124 tornadoes by the way, less than half of what is expected.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
From the previous blog....

Continued pretty cold for most of the US. I thought that the long range forecast was above normal for April? Certainly hasn't been the case. The past 30 days record lows significantly out number record highs.


(Cough cough..)
Source?
Link?
Proof?

Here is your link.

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records

The cold is welcome because in another month we'll all be complaining how hot it is.






Thanks for the Link clwstmchasr..
I'm trying to figure out the chart now..
Thanks again..
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Morning,
Thanks for the new Blog Doc,


hey Ped, Gmorning
9 AM around your place
Quoting FtMyersgal:


It appears our shields are still up Largo :(
yes indeed, i felt sure we would get some good rains from this system,now its a 50/50 chance gee.
...GULF COAST/FL PENINSULA...

LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN INTO
GA/FL BY 15/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND FOCUS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN TRANSLATE INTO GA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS ABLE TO ADVANCE
INLAND AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND THEIR ATTENDANT WIND/TORNADO THREATS...MAY BE NOTED.
AT THIS TIME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE ACROSS
THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WELL AHEAD OF THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH.
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF FL WITH STRONGER FORCED ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE
FL PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA. AS NOTED ABOVE...SEVERE PROBS ARE
PREDICATED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


It appears our shields are still up Largo :(


Gal ~ Patience





best guess is that blocking HIGH off our east coast may be why no rain..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Who here knows a thing or two about Miracle Gro?

I used quite a bit on some potted plants and watered it in good, days later when I went to water again a very dark Dr Pepper color in the water was coming out of the pots. And it's still in the soil and running out when watered. It is staining the concrete and bottom of the pots that hold the water and everything. Ticking me off. It's never done this before, but I'm not doing it again after all this.


Personally, I don't use the stuff anymore. You might want to read this before using it again!

Link

Lindy
Quoting LargoFl:
best guess is that blocking HIGH off our east coast may be why no rain..


Some strong Cells look en route :)
nws tweet on facebook.......NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 5h
Showers are beginning to move into the Nature Coast this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will expand through central Florida today.
followed the NAM, storms break up, maybe a few showers..
watch how the storms near the coast then fall apart
oh well this isnt our storm,not this time...........
Quoting LargoFl:
best guess is that blocking HIGH off our east coast may be why no rain..


Mid level dry air tongue @ 700mb...
I was too focused on surface thermodynamics and CIN earlier and missed this feature myself. Surface dewpoints sure are healthy though...
Quoting hydrus:
The top indicates the date and time of the run, the bottom shows the forecast for that date.
@tMX - I am refering to Hydrus' NAO graphs.

@Hydrus - For me the top graph always reads "12122000z GFS Predicted NAO" - I read this as 2012-12-20 00z, which would be December 20, 2012. The x-axis makes sense in that case because it runs from 12/20 to 01/05. What doesn't make sense is why you'd post that (which I am sure is not your intention). Perhaps the data is correct and the x-axis and run date aren't updated?
Quoting LargoFl:
watch how the storms near the coast then fall apart
I can't tell you how many times I've seen this since moving to Tampa 2 years ago. It seems as if >50% of the storm complexes fizzle right at the coast.
yet another snowstorm to hit North Dakota this weekend... winter watches already posted there
could we get to Xerxes?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Who here knows a thing or two about Miracle Gro?

I used quite a bit on some potted plants and watered it in good, days later when I went to water again a very dark Dr Pepper color in the water was coming out of the pots. And it's still in the soil and running out when watered. It is staining the concrete and bottom of the pots that hold the water and everything. Ticking me off. It's never done this before, but I'm not doing it again after all this.


(off topic) Hi Rita:

The brown liquid from your pots is tannins and "compost tea". This is good stuff and you should collect it and reapply to the soil.

I formerly used M.G. extensively, but have pretty much switched to Medina products (http://www.hastagro.com/index1.php).

If you would like to discuss it further, contact me off blog at emjones @cableone.net.


Coastal Eddy in there somewhere. Supposed to be 85 today. 59.2 right now, yesterday was 54.0/80.1 here. Normal is 50/75....

Quoting seminolesfan:


Mid level dry air tongue @ 700mb...


A dry layer at 700 mb can actually aid in severe weather, that is not what is preventing these storms from making it to the west coast of Florida as total PW's are plenty high across the board, you ought to read my analysis :)


It doesn't help the mid level lapse rates are quite weak as well.
Quoting LargoFl:
watch how the storms near the coast then fall apart
If it were night time, the would probably strengthen. The dynamics during the day over the peninsula seem to weaken storms as they move towards the coast.. One can see how this works during the reverse pattern over Florida. As longtime residents know, storms form right off the west coast at night, and move inland during the morning and early afternoon hours and dissipate, later in the day, other storms form over the spine of the peninsula and move off the east coast.
Quoting SouthTampa:
@tMX - I am refering to Hydrus' NAO graphs.

@Hydrus - For me the top graph always reads "12122000z GFS Predicted NAO" - I read this as 2012-12-20 00z, which would be December 20, 2012. The x-axis makes sense in that case because it runs from 12/20 to 01/05. What doesn't make sense is why you'd post that (which I am sure is not your intention). Perhaps the data is correct and the x-axis and run date aren't updated?
It is coming up correctly on my screen. I dont know why it would be different on your, but this type of thing has happened in the past, and I am not sure why it occurs. Sorry if it is an inconvenience. Will try to correct it if I can..
from last blog if anyone did not catch

Quoting washingtonian115:
What is the percentage that you guys think we'll see an invest this year in May?.

80%-100%

60-80%

30%-50%

10%-30%

Which percentage?.

I'd give it a 30% chance.

I'll say somewhere between 30%-50% and 60%-80%

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
when will we get are first tropical storm or td
A. May 1-15
B. May 15- 30
C. June 1-5
D. June 5-15
E. June 15-30

I going on a limp and say May 15-30
I am joining Minnesotan's for Global Warming if this keeps up.

. Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday morning...

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday morning.

* Timing... snow will develop on Sunday morning... possibly becoming
heavy at times during the day and into the evening.

* Winds... east to northeast increasing to 25 to 35 mph along and
west of the Red River valley on Sunday.

* Snow accumulations... 7 to 14 inches possible... with the
potential for locally higher amounts.

* Other impacts... strong winds and falling snow will combine to
produce areas of blowing snow and significantly reduced
visibility... resulting in hazardous travel conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


This on top of the 18 or 20 inches still on the ground. It is snowing right now to top it off.

I can officially say Spring has been cancelled around here.
Quoting Jedkins01:


A dry layer at 700 mb can actually aid in severe weather, that is not what is preventing these storms from making it to the west coast of Florida as total PW's are plenty high across the board, you ought to read my analysis :)


It doesn't help the mid level lapse rates are quite weak as well.




Not the most impressive skew...

Seriously, though Jed.

Could you take a sec and give me your take on this sounding?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
from last blog if anyone did not catch


I'll say somewhere between 30%-50% and 60%-80%


I going on a limp and say May 15-30


You might be on to something WKC....

Quoting hydrus:
It is coming up correctly on my screen. I dont know why it would be different on your, but this type of thing has happened in the past, and I am not sure why it occurs. Sorry if it is an inconvenience. Will try to correct it if I can..
Not a big deal, just kind of odd. I'll just translate it from now on. This info is useful - thanks for posting.
Quoting VR46L:


You might be on to something WKC....



Is this really a forecast for May 13th???
It is the warm nose that is the nail, IMO.
The warm nose in the dry 700mb layer.

I'm really looking to learn here; Not at all being difficult. I know you have a better grasp on some finer details than I do.

Sometimes being shown why you are wrong is the best learning experience...

Thanks.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Is this really a forecast for May 13th???


Yep It is CPC Central America Loop
Quoting nymore:
I am joining Minnesotan's for Global Warming if this keeps up.

. Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday morning...

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday morning.

* Timing... snow will develop on Sunday morning... possibly becoming
heavy at times during the day and into the evening.

* Winds... east to northeast increasing to 25 to 35 mph along and
west of the Red River valley on Sunday.

* Snow accumulations... 7 to 14 inches possible... with the
potential for locally higher amounts.

* Other impacts... strong winds and falling snow will combine to
produce areas of blowing snow and significantly reduced
visibility... resulting in hazardous travel conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


This on top of the 18 or 20 inches still on the ground. It is snowing right now to top it off.

I can officially say Spring has been cancelled around here.


LOL I take it the horrible winter weather is getting to you ???
These cells are becoming some nice storms...brought a good shower to me
Quoting VR46L:


You might be on to something WKC....

Quoting SPLbeater:


Is this really a forecast for May 13th???

lol you read my mind yes I was looking at that and I said I think I may be on to something
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lol you read my mind yes I was looking at that and I said I think I may be on to something


This is just my personal opinion about a forecast of 32 days...

Its crazy. If it's shown now, it wont happen. Did I mention it's crazy? :P
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lol you read my mind yes I was looking at that and I said I think I may be on to something


I have special Powers ;)



Not really !! Joking !!

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/11/13 TORNADO EVENT...

...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LUMPKIN AND HALL COUNTIES...

.LUMPKIN HALL TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 250 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: APRIL 11 2013
START TIME: 09:23 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 6.3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DAHLONEGA
START LAT/LON: 34.4515 / -83.9300

END DATE: APRIL 11 2013
END TIME: 09:29 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 2.5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GARLAND
END LAT/LON: 34.4879 / -83.8744

SURVEY SUMMARY:Link
Quoting VR46L:


LOL I take it the horrible winter weather is getting to you ???
I am ready to go start everything I own and just let it run if it will bring higher temps. LOL
Quoting SPLbeater:


This is just my personal opinion about a forecast of 32 days...

Its crazy. If it's shown now, it wont happen. Did I mention it's crazy? :P



Some people put alot of stock in the CPC 3 month prediction.... Not me!! I see them as a source of entertainment similar to GFS 384 storms , unless they regularly turn up on a few runs in a row, you cant beleive them .... Sure 2-3 day forecasts are being blown at the moment


Quoting SPLbeater:


This is just my personal opinion about a forecast of 32 days...

Its crazy. If it's shown now, it wont happen. Did I mention it's crazy? :P


Yeah I don't usually take forecast beyond 10 day/2weeks but if that is showing at that time frame it just hinting of some sort of tropical development early before start of season
Big rain for us...finally ending


I discussed this in a new blog..
Quoting VR46L:



Some people put alot of stock in the CPC 3 month prediction.... Not me!! I see them as a source of entertainment similar to GFS 384 storms , unless they regularly turn up on a few runs in a row, you cant beleive them .... Sure 2-3 day forecasts are being blown at the moment



I completely agree
Quoting hydrus:


That means no big warming for the MDR at least for the next couple of weeks.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That means no big warming for the MDR at least for the next couple of weeks.
If it pans out that way.
I still have hope for the Central Florida Folk

Wow, serious stuff in Ontario!

Live on Twitter: #ONstorm


GrimarSecurity - -3577 seconds ago
RT @weathernetwork: Wow, that could seriously hurt someone! RT @jerbrock Some crazy ice formations on the fence #StMarys #onstormhttp://t.co/GzNISME4D5

weathernetwork - -3571 seconds ago
"This is a once-in-a-decade storm for some places." - @ChrisScottWx. We'll be covering the aftermath through the weekend. #onstorm #twn

RedCrossTalk - -3535 seconds ago
Red Cross supporting warming centre in Dufferin County: Grand Valley Fire Hall, 173145 County Road 25 #onstorm ^jc

evelynso - -3472 seconds ago
#Onstorm @redcrosscanada SHELTER OPEN - DUFFERIN County: Grand Valley Fire Hall - 173145 County Road 25

evelynso - -3456 seconds ago
#onstorm @redcrosscanada SHELTER OPEN: WATERLOO region - Linwood Centre Sportsplex, 5279 Ament Line

ptboprops - -3411 seconds ago
RT @Ptbo_Canada: Props to @ptbo_utilities crews working hard to get everyone back on the grid. Be safe. #onstorm #icestorm
Thanks Dr. for the stats and condolences to the family of the deceased in Liberty. Was just contemplating (only in terms of the US) the difference between tornado related deaths and hurricane related deaths. Storm surge is the biggest killer from hurricanes vs. building/other structure collapse-destruction from the quick unexpected formation/touchdown of a tornado and a relatively small random path.

Coastal residents usually have a day or two of lead time (and potential evacuation) from a hurricane/storm surge threat and potential tornado victims have very little lead time (other than same day watches and hopes that they have access to media or NOAA weather radio) during a tornado event.

Just noting how fortunate we are in the US to have a competent National weather service organization which does a great job of giving the general public as much advance time as science allows for these type of weather events.

The chances, assuming you take the appropriate precautions, of actually getting killed by a hurricane or tornado is extremely rare but any loss of life is a great tragedy.

How many tropical storms are expecting for 2013

I am going out on limb and expected 16 - 22......

I'm kind of surprised that no one has mentioned the government report about last year's drought and it's (non)relationship to Global Warming. I'm willing to bet your next paycheck that if the report had stated that the drought was GW-related, that tornadoes would have been set aside and it would have been the topic of the doc's blog today.
Quoting Wiiilbur:
I'm kind of surprised that no one has mentioned the government report about last year's drought and it's (non)relationship to Global Warming. I'm willing to bet your next paycheck that if the report had stated that the drought was GW-related, that tornadoes would have been set aside and it would have been the topic of the doc's blog today.


Its not a surprise IMO ..There is cherry picking on all sides of the debate ... But I bet the person who wrote the report ,there will be an attempt to discredit his work ....
Speaking of residents who live in potential coastal flood areas vulnerable to storm surge (as well as flooding in our river basin/delta areas), big rate increases coming in terms of the National Flood Insurance program. Here is the summary from the Hurricane Conference and link to the article. Makes you think twice about the cost of living/purchasing in a flood prone area if you are regular working class folk.

NEW ORLEANS —
People who buy federal flood insurance need to plan for big rate hikes because Congress has decided the program must at least pay for itself, a top federal official said Tuesday.

Some people now paying hundreds of dollars a year could wind up paying thousands, with the biggest increases for people who live in high-risk areas and who have not raised their houses, Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate told about 1,500 people at the National Hurricane Conference.


Link
Quoting VR46L:


You might be on to something WKC....

Shhh your not suppose to be posting that..

Any who on the 5000 hour model a cat 5 is plowing into Miami.JFV is a happy camper.lolol.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shhh your not suppose to be posting that..

Any who on the 5000 hour model a cat 5 is plowing into Miami.JFV is a happy camper.lolol.


LOL .... It fun in a purely entertainment way ! But then again maybe its my twisted humour ....
Quoting seminolesfan:
It is the warm nose that is the nail, IMO.
The warm nose in the dry 700mb layer.

I'm really looking to learn here; Not at all being difficult. I know you have a better grasp on some finer details than I do.

Sometimes being shown why you are wrong is the best learning experience...

Thanks.


The sounding indicates poor lapse rates, and arguably a cap at 500 mb, and almost again between 300 and 400 mb. As you may have seen, I already mentioned there was a cap present in the atmosphere, which doesn't help the already surface CAPE minimum thanks to the cooler water temps.

You however, only initially mentioned that it was dry layer present at 700 mb that is that cause. That you should recognize can't be a reasonable conclusion because drier layers are almost always present except for when the atmosphere is ideally "loaded" with moisture like in a tropical cyclone. Even then however dry layers are sometimes present in some quadrants despite an overall extremely moist atmospheric column. In a tropical cyclone a dry layer can be more potent since a tropical cyclone relies and transportation of latent heat, and any drying causes evaporative cooling which inhibits the efficiency to due so in that region. As we know that can be most easily noted by outflow boundaries ejecting out from tropical cyclone rain bands.


However, since we aren't dealing with a tropical cyclone here, we don't have the same issues. Dry air IS an issue if there is also poor lapse rates in that portion of the column since both dry air and warming with height work together to create hostile conditions for convection.

But if the lapse rates were steep and this front still had significant upper support, a dry layer above the surface may actually aid in severe weather because it can help promote down bursts and hail growth.



However, if water temps were higher and instability was greater, that line would have still made it into the area, granted lapse rates are not impressive, but they really aren't impressive further west in the gulf where the convection is strong. The difference is, thunderstorms are still strong further west because water temperatures are much warmer and instability is much more impressive as apposed to essentially non-existent instability right off the coast. What you mentioned regarding the dry layer at 700 mb in combination with capping and a lack of instability may only help to make the problem worse. However, hopefully by this point you can agree that to conclude that is the main reason for the thunderstorms completely collapsing before reaching the coast just would not be a reasonable conclusion for a meteorologist to make.


Also, you can ask people here, I'm not afraid to admit I'm wrong, in fact I admit I've been wrong more times than I can count lol. In fact, I am an advocate of learning by experience is a great thing. However, I'm quite certain I am not wrong in this case though. If I am wrong then oh well, I don't have anything to lose, I enjoy the learning experience :)
Quoting VR46L:


LOL .... It fun in a purely entertainment way ! But then again maybe its my twisted humour ....
Lol my comment was sarcastic and wasn't meant to be taken seriously.But watch someone come on here insisting that I'm wishing for doom and gloom.It never fails :).
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol my comment was sarcastic and wasn't meant to be taken seriously.But watch someone come on here insisting that I'm wishing for doom and gloom.It never fails :).


I dont know ... Alot of folk like the CPC Maps especially when they are full of red and brown ... but like I said earlier These days its hard to believe a forecast 2-3 days out.. The normal models need to get their act together very quick or there will major problems this coming season ...
Good afternoon from Austin. We had some light rain earlier in the week (nothing like what SPC had originally forecasted) but water from the sky none the less. I recorded two tenths of an inch and needless to say the mint in my yard has grown huge. It's in the mid-70s here right now and its Friday. So with that and the aforementioned I say TGIF and yes there will be mojitos later :)
Quoting VR46L:


I dont know ... Alot of folk like the CPC Maps especially when they are full of red and brown ... but like I said earlier These days its hard to believe a forecast 2-3 days out.. The normal models need to get their act together very quick or there will major problems this coming season ...


I often post the CPC models during hurricane season myself..lots of doom and gloom in those models runs..they have a huge disclaimor on their site about not to use those model runs as a forecast..maybe you can save that run down somewhere and then on May 15 you can see how accurate it might be..
Just saw that the NWS said the damage on the Hill was also tornado related, didn't have an EF # in article, expect 0, 1 at most. All other damage was straight line, but Sullivan, where had the 101 wind is SW on I-44 of the Hill, so imagine related. Unfortunately, a lineman lost his life restoring power Thursday morning.

Cold and windy again today. Will need long johns for tonight when go for Stan the Man tribute at Busch. We get an autographed harmonica & in the 6th or 7th everyone supposed to play Take Me Out To the Ballgame on them like Stan used to.
well its starting to sprinkle very lightly here now, no where near enough to even wet the sidewalk, hopefully we will get a shower or two out of all this.
yellow storms are dying out before hitting the coast i dont see us getting any good rains from this right now, maybe tonight
this may stall out over the I-4 corridor,doesnt seem to be going southward at all

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM BIG BEND FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO LATE TODAY THEN
STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT. HIGH
PRES BUILD BEHIND FRONT MAINTAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE BREEZE
ACROSS GULF THROUGH THUE.
Quoting Wiiilbur:
I'm kind of surprised that no one has mentioned the government report about last year's drought and it's (non)relationship to Global Warming. I'm willing to bet your next paycheck that if the report had stated that the drought was GW-related, that tornadoes would have been set aside and it would have been the topic of the doc's blog today.


I'm surprised that people like you who cast aspersions and/or half-veiled insults like this at Dr. M don't get hit with the ban-hammer.
Quoting Wiiilbur:
I'm kind of surprised that no one has mentioned the government report about last year's drought and it's (non)relationship to Global Warming. I'm willing to bet your next paycheck that if the report had stated that the drought was GW-related, that tornadoes would have been set aside and it would have been the topic of the doc's blog today.


That's the NOAA's opinion. If the drought persists, that opinion may change.
Kemper county, MS after tornado

NWS has shown a Child Abduction Alert for just about All of Texas:



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
124 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE CEDAR HILL POLICE DEPARTMENT IS SEARCHING FOR SOMMER BROWN...
A BLACK FEMALE...12 YEARS OLD. HER DATE OF BIRTH IS JULY
24...2000. SHE IS 5 FOOT...6 INCHES TALL...WEIGHS 90 POUNDS AND
HAS BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES. SHE WAS LAST SEEN WEARING A BLACK
TANK TOP AND BLACK BASKETBALL SHORTS.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR LISA ELIZABETH BROWN IN HER ABDUCTION. SHE
IS A BLACK FEMALE...43 YEARS OLD. HER DATE OF BIRTH IS AUGUST
17...1969. SHE IS 5 FOOT 8 INCHES TALL...WEIGHS 120 POUNDS AND HAS
BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES. SHE WAS LAST SEEN WEARING A BLACK
BLAZER AND A LIGHT GREEN SHIRT.

THE SUSPECT IS DRIVING A GRAY...2006 FORD EXPEDITION WITH A TEXAS
TEMPORARY LICENSE PLATE NUMBER OF 86P 3357. THE SUSPECT WAS LAST
HEARD FROM IN CEDAR HILL...TEXAS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THIS CHILD TO BE IN GRAVE OR
IMMEDIATE DANGER.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION...CALL THE
CEDAR HILL POLICE DEPARTMENT AT 972 230 5785.

NEWS MEDIA POINT OF CONTACT IS CEDAR HILL POLICE DEPARTMENT AT 972
230 5785.
The NWS confirms the long-tracked tornado from Mississippi into Alabama was /at least/ an EF3.
Nino 1+2 stopped warming for now.

Quoting Jedkins01:


The sounding indicates poor lapse rates, and arguably a cap at 500 mb, and almost again between 300 and 400 mb. As you may have seen, I already mentioned there was a cap present in the atmosphere, which doesn't help the already surface CAPE minimum thanks to the cooler water temps.

You however, only initially mentioned that it was dry layer present at 700 mb that is that cause. That you should recognize can't be a reasonable conclusion because drier layers are almost always present except for when the atmosphere is ideally "loaded" with moisture like in a tropical cyclone. Even then however dry layers are sometimes present in some quadrants despite an overall extremely moist atmospheric column. In a tropical cyclone a dry layer can be more potent since a tropical cyclone relies and transportation of latent heat, and any drying causes evaporative cooling which inhibits the efficiency to due so in that region. As we know that can be most easily noted by outflow boundaries ejecting out from tropical cyclone rain bands.


However, since we aren't dealing with a tropical cyclone here, we don't have the same issues. Dry air IS an issue if there is also poor lapse rates in that portion of the column since both dry air and warming with height work together to create hostile conditions for convection.

But if the lapse rates were steep and this front still had significant upper support, a dry layer above the surface may actually aid in severe weather because it can help promote down bursts and hail growth.



However, if water temps were higher and instability was greater, that line would have still made it into the area, granted lapse rates are not impressive, but they really aren't impressive further west in the gulf where the convection is strong. The difference is, thunderstorms are still strong further west because water temperatures are much warmer and instability is much more impressive as apposed to essentially non-existent instability right off the coast. What you mentioned regarding the dry layer at 700 mb in combination with capping and a lack of instability may only help to make the problem worse. However, hopefully by this point you can agree that to conclude that is the main reason for the thunderstorms completely collapsing before reaching the coast just would not be a reasonable conclusion for a meteorologist to make.


Also, you can ask people here, I'm not afraid to admit I'm wrong, in fact I admit I've been wrong more times than I can count lol. In fact, I am an advocate of learning by experience is a great thing. However, I'm quite certain I am not wrong in this case though. If I am wrong then oh well, I don't have anything to lose, I enjoy the learning experience :)


I appreciate the response, Jed. I will admit that my short caption of the posted image didn't convey nearly enough information to be accurate. I just was pointing out the airmass to laypersons in the most descriptive visual context of the graphic I posted.
Furthermore,the temp profile would have had less impact had the impinging airmass had not been so lacking in moisture. It would be a stretch to call it a WARM-dry parcel vs a DRY-warm one...

Anywho; Lesson learned! Post more than a one-liner description of graphics. lol


Quoting dabirds:
Just saw that the NWS said the damage on the Hill was also tornado related, didn't have an EF # in article, expect 0, 1 at most. All other damage was straight line, but Sullivan, where had the 101 wind is SW on I-44 of the Hill, so imagine related. Unfortunately, a lineman lost his life restoring power Thursday morning.

Cold and windy again today. Will need long johns for tonight when go for Stan the Man tribute at Busch. We get an autographed harmonica & in the 6th or 7th everyone supposed to play Take Me Out To the Ballgame on them like Stan used to.



A lineman lost his life restoring power? That is horrible but I would imagine not weather related unless lightning hit the worker.

Being a lineman is a dangerous job, I don't think I could overcome my fear of working with those lines. It would terrify me working with utility lines. Electric wires in a home at 120 are 240 volts are scary enough to work with. Also, lineman usually work with power lines while they are alive. Just the thought of making a mistake of a wire rated at 15,000 volts along with line currents at several hundred amps is terrifying.
Nearly 5" of snow measured in Minneapolis from Walda
It is hot out 92 and rain today!!!!!
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IMELDA (10-20122013)
22:00 PM RET April 12 2013
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Imelda (998 hPa) located at 15.8S 59.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

reaching gale force winds within 50-100 NM from the center due to gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.5S 59.6E - 30 knots (Depression se Comblant)
24 HRS: 16.9S 59.3E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 17.8S 59.2E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
72 HRS: 18.2S 59.4E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=========================
Burst of deep convection that has occurred in the eastern semi-circle near the rmw and are mainly located now in the southeastern quadrant... However cloud tops appear not so cold on infrared imagery and show little banding features.

Given the current state of the circulation and the rather hostile environment (dry air in the mid-level, weakening low level convergence as a barometric col approaching from the southwest), re-intensification appears now unlikely. Imelda has moved southeastwards during the last hours. According to numerical weather prediction fields in the low level (where should be the steering flow now), the ridge located to the southeast of the system should give a more south southwestwards or southwestwards component to the track tomorrow.

From Sunday, as the barometric col pass to the south of the system, the track should back southwards and significantly slow down.

Before the middle of next week, the filling up low should track westwards or west northwestwards steered by the trade-winds flow.
Quoting seminolesfan:


I appreciate the response, Jed. I will admit that my short caption of the posted image didn't convey nearly enough information to be accurate. I just was pointing out the airmass to laypersons in the most descriptive visual context of the graphic I posted.
Furthermore,the temp profile would have had less impact had the impinging airmass had not been so lacking in moisture. It would be a stretch to call it a WARM-dry parcel vs a DRY-warm one...

Anywho; Lesson learned! Post more than a one-liner description of graphics. lol




Oh ok, that makes sense. I completely understand why you didn't explain it further. I've done that before and had to defend myself lol. Posting soundings and talking about air parcels isn't exactly common knowledge, even among people interested in meteorology!

I guess we both learned something!
I love the camera on my new phone!!!:)

Link
Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh ok, that makes sense. I completely understand why you didn't explain it further. I've done that before and had to defend myself lol. Posting soundings and talking about air parcels isn't exactly common knowledge, even among people interested in meteorology!

I guess we both learned something!
I know you are a smart one, too. That's why I knew hitting the soundings to make sure we were both talking about the same noise made sense. :)

Quoting VR46L:


Its not a surprise IMO ..There is cherry picking on all sides of the debate ... But I bet the person who wrote the report ,there will be an attempt to discredit his work ....


1. There is no debate. All reviewed data and research show the planet is warming. I've yet to see any credible research that refutes this in any reputable research periodicals. And no, random internet blogs do not count.

2. The only "cherry picking" happening are from those grabbing desperately at straws trying to alter reality based on screaming loud enough. Intentionally fudging data in professional research ends your career, and may subject you to considerable legal repercussions and fines (not to mention public humiliation).

3. Why would there be an attempt to discredit the work? It was a collaborative work by multiple agencies and multiple scientists that was reviewed and published. And they basically verify in the study what any climate scientists already knows: a) Weather != Climate and b) Attributing any single weather event to climate change is difficult if not impossible.

Quoting Jedkins01:



A lineman lost his life restoring power? That is horrible but I would imagine not weather related unless lightning hit the worker.

Being a lineman is a dangerous job, I don't think I could overcome my fear of working with those lines. It would terrify me working with utility lines. Electric wires in a home at 120 are 240 volts are scary enough to work with. Also, lineman usually work with power lines while they are alive. Just the thought of making a mistake of a wire rated at 15,000 volts along with line currents at several hundred amps is terrifying.
Jedkins... Linemen have so many tools to protect them, but it only takes one careless mistake.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I'm surprised that people like you who cast aspersions and/or half-veiled insults like this at Dr. M don't get hit with the ban-hammer.


Because unfortunately
Quoting hydrus:
If it were night time, the would probably strengthen. The dynamics during the day over the peninsula seem to weaken storms as they move towards the coast.. One can see how this works during the reverse pattern over Florida. As longtime residents know, storms form right off the west coast at night, and move inland during the morning and early afternoon hours and dissipate, later in the day, other storms form over the spine of the peninsula and move off the east coast.


The good old diurnal cycle.
Quoting Wiiilbur:
I'm kind of surprised that no one has mentioned the government report about last year's drought and it's (non)relationship to Global Warming. I'm willing to bet your next paycheck that if the report had stated that the drought was GW-related, that tornadoes would have been set aside and it would have been the topic of the doc's blog today.
Quoting VR46L:


Its not a surprise IMO ..There is cherry picking on all sides of the debate ... But I bet the person who wrote the report ,there will be an attempt to discredit his work ....

The report seemed to have some good background on the contributors to the 2012 drought (at least a few states that experienced that drought), but it seems that some climate scientists are disagreeing with the conclusions reached based upon the evidence. The author of the NOAA report used a modeling study to help investigate the contributors to the drought. Because he was unable to see a similar drought in his model when the model simulated global warming / climate change that is being observed, his conclusion was that it must have been natural causes that contributed. Here are a few concerns I've seen from climate scientists who have read the report:
Joe Romm
...just because Hoerling couldn’t replicate the drought with his computer simulations doesn’t mean climate change had nothing to do with the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought — let alone the entire 2012 drought and the current 2013 drought.

Kevin Trenberth
[The report] fails completely to say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring. Soil moisture is touched upon in Fig. 8 from a model but not validated with any data or indices of vegetation health such as NDVI. In Colorado on 1 May 2012, snow pack was lowest on record since 1968 and just 19% of average. As a result there was subsequently no snow melt and soil moisture or runoff. All the heat went into desiccating vegetation and raising temperatures and there was no snow melt or evaporative cooling effects to be had. In their Fig. 1 they show that on 1 May 2012 the widespread drought was already present throughout the entire Southwestern parts of the country, and this of course translated into extreme fire risk by June when major wildfires caused havoc in Colorado and burned over 600 houses. The dryness and heat appeared to spread eastwards, even as Colorado had some rains in July. But none of this is mentioned.
...
There is no discussion of evaporation, or potential evapotranspiration, which is greatly enhanced by increased heat-trapping greenhouse gases. In fact, given prevailing anticyclonic conditions, the expectation is for drought that is exacerbated by global warming, greatly increasing the heat waves and wild fire risk. The omission of any such considerations is a MAJOR failure of this publication.


As most climate scientists will tell you - it is particularly hard to tie any one event to climatic changes. These kinds of things occur due to variability in the climate system, but their frequency and magnitude has been changing, as expected, from an increasing amount of heat energy in the climate system. This report seems to have created more confusion than anything.
Quoting Speeky:
How many tropical storms are expecting for 2013

I am going out on limb and expected 16 - 22......

That's less of a limb and more of a tree trunk.... lol...

Howareya, speeky?

And a fine Friday afternoon to all, sundry and everybody else...
Quoting 1900hurricane:

2005 was actually very quiet throughout May for tornadoes.




i would imagine many july and later tornadoes were hurricane related starting with cindy.
ouch



a shortwave in a trough with a strong llj per gfs...
classic.