WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected by CSU, TSR, and WSI

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:02 PM GMT on April 10, 2013

After three consecutive years with a remarkable 19 named storms in the Atlantic, expect another Atlantic hurricane season with similar levels of activity in 2013, says the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 10. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 165. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. The active hurricane period that began in 1995 has averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The 2013 forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (48% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (47% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 61% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season February and March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2013 hurricane season may resemble: 2004 (which featured seven major hurricanes, including four that hit the U.S.); 1996 (six major hurricanes, including Cat 3 Hurricane Fran that hit North Carolina); 1966 (three major hurricanes, featuring Cat 4 Inez, which hit Mexico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida); 1952 (only seven named storms, but three major hurricanes); and 1915, which boasted a Cat 3 hurricane that hit New Orleans and a Cat 4 that hit Galveston. These years all had neutral El Niño conditions, above-average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and North Atlantic, and cool ocean temperatures in the Northeast Pacific (a negative PDO) during February - March. None of the five analogue years had a significant El Niño during the peak of the hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 10 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Sandy was the only other major Atlantic hurricane of 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Why the forecast of an active season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be an active hurricane season:

1) Neutral El Niño conditions are expected during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, neutral years have seen much above-average activity (remember the neutral El Niño year of 2005?) If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near-average in the western tropical Atlantic, but unusually warm in the eastern tropical Atlantic, in March 2013. Much of this unusual warming was due to a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) since mid-February (which also brought an unusually cold March to the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe.) A negative phase of the NAO is associated with a weakened Bermuda-Azores High and slower trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. The slower winds allow the ocean to heat up more, due to less mixing of cool water to the surface. Virtually all African tropical waves originate in the MDR, and these tropical waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 8, 2013, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region between Africa and Central America (red box) were well above-average.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a statistical model developed in 2011 for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model predicted a below-average year for 2012, with 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The actual tally was much higher, with 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. Currently, ocean temperatures are very close to average in the Eastern Pacific, and the large majority of the El Niño models are predicting a continuation of these neutral conditions for the coming hurricane season.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due on Monday, June 3, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

TSR predicts an active hurricane season
The April 5 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 131. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as low for these April forecasts--just 6 - 15% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 63% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 21% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.9 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 7 - 8% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and slower than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.

WSI predicts an active hurricane season
The April 8 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for an active season with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.



Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tree uprooted and fell on a house in the St. Louis area. This was from the damaging storms today.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



actually some people overreact to tornado watches, almost acting like its a warning, but the main difference is when in a tornado watch, most likely nothing will happen, or you'll get a quick severe storm

a hurricane is widespread, long, and particularly damaging.

A better comparison might be between the reaction to a tornado warning on a confirmed tornado and the reaction to approaching hurricane.

It also might be said however that people do not take tornado watches seriously enough, and that may be true.


I was trying to convey that people don't take severe weather seriously, or as serious as they should.
Lightning around town...some more in my blog
Quoting allancalderini:
But I need to say that if Lili that caused more damaged was retire I see no excuse for this one.


Hey ya... did you feel the 5.5 quake early this afternoon?
Hopefully no damages of any kind.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



actually some people overreact to tornado watches, almost acting like its a warning, but the main difference is when in a tornado watch, most likely nothing will happen, or you'll get a quick severe storm

a hurricane is widespread, long, and particularly damaging.

A better comparison might be between the reaction to a tornado warning on a confirmed tornado and the reaction to approaching hurricane.

It also might be said however that people do not take tornado watches seriously enough, and that may be true.

For me, I've never had to experience hurricane watches/warnings, but I'm sure I'd prepare well. For tornado watches, I usually just take note of them and monitor anything that develops in my area. For tornado warnings, I admit I usually go outside first, then inside downstairs.
Quoting Speeky:


Yeah, however most torndoes and even some thunderstorms can be more dangerous than a Category 2 - 3 hurricane.

Tornadoes hit without much warning, hence the watches. People who live in homes without a storm shelter or cellar are at risk from strong tornadoes because there is little protection. F-5,s kill when there are safe spots or storm cellars because they are literally sucked out and ripped apart. Tornadoes are extremely dangerous, just ask anyone who has actually been through one.
Quoting wxchaser97:

For me, I've never had to experience hurricane watches/warnings, but I'm sure I'd prepare well. For tornado watches, I usually just take note of them and monitor anything that develops in my area. For tornado warnings, I admit I usually go outside first, then inside downstairs.



i dont have a basement (but i live in a sturdy 2 story stucco/wood home)
I generally go to a window, only outside if it isnt raining or if there isnt much lightning (usually impossible)

I track the storm on radar on tv and online if i have power till i can tell if it the rotation is passing within a mile or less of me.
That way i almost never take shelter, and only do if i cant locate the tornado, or if it is coming right at me.
hey this system brough tornadoes to california....never a good sign..

Our local mets actually sound quite worried.

Usually they just downplay the threat, and are right...(most of our mets are long time veterans)
Storm reports so far:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



i dont have a basement (but i live in a sturdy 2 story stucco/wood home)
I generally go to a window, only outside if it isnt raining or if there isnt much lightning (usually impossible)

I track the storm on radar on tv and online if i have power till i can tell if it the rotation is passing within a mile or less of me.
That way i almost never take shelter, and only do if i cant locate the tornado, or if it is coming right at me.

I've stayed outside for too long before. Like in 2007 when a squall line had a funnel come right over my area and I waited and watched it come right over me. Usually my warnings are for squall lines that may produce brief rain-wrapped tornadoes so I can usually not get a good look. I also once went outside, and remained outside, during golf ball size hail. That was not a good idea though.
I really think that Isaac will be retired. Some people south and east of New Orleans called it worse than Hurricane Katrina due to the flooding.

Also Hurricane Isaac was a billion dollar disaster. There are 61 hurricanes in the Atlantic to cause more than 1 billion dollars in damage (with adjusted currency rate for those before 1950). 54 of those storms were retired. 6 were before 1950. 1 was TS Lee 2011.

Out of the 78 retired hurricane storms 13 were only million dollar disasters.

Statically speaking Isaac should be retired, however, people may disagree. (i.e. TS Lee 201 and TS fay of 2008. to name a couple)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey ya... did you feel the 5.5 quake early this afternoon?
Hopefully no damages of any kind.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey ya... did you feel the 5.5 quake early this afternoon?
Hopefully no damages of any kind.
Of course I feel it ;) I live near the epicenter remember :D it feel awesome I was in spanish class we were practicing for the farewell for the 12th graders.I laugh because most of my classmates start screaming meanwhile my spanish teacher was acting normal without moving and continuing reading her book.if you want more information you can read it in here.Link
Quoting wxchaser97:

I've stayed outside for too long before. Like in 2007 when a squall line had a funnel come right over my area and I waited and watched it come right over me. Usually my warnings are for squall lines that may produce brief rain-wrapped tornadoes so I can usually not get a good look. I also once went outside, and remained outside, during golf ball size hail. That was not a good idea though.


I get a lot of warning on cells that weaken before they get me, or on cells that are just south or just north of me.

My house has some sort of curse on not getting severe weather.

15years, 3 damaging wind events, 1 1.75 in hail event and a couple quarter sized hail events.

While everywhere around me gets much more.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey ya... did you feel the 5.5 quake early this afternoon?
Hopefully no damages of any kind.
Btw I mean to say that Lili caused less damaged than Isaac and it still was retired.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I get a lot of warning on cells that weaken before they get me, or on cells that are just south or just north of me.

My house has some sort of curse on not getting severe weather.

15years, 3 damaging wind events, 1 1.75 in hail event and a couple quarter sized hail events.

While everywhere around me gets much more.

I don't get directly impacted by severe thunderstorms a lot.

But when I do, they are always stronger that the usual 1.00" hail and 60mph storms.
Quoting allancalderini:
Of course I feel it ;) I live near the epicenter remember :D it feel awesome I was in spanish class we were practicing for the farewell for the 12th graders.I laugh because most of my classmates start screaming meanwhile my spanish teacher was acting normal without moving and continuing reading her book.if you want more information you can read it in here.Link


In Spanish...

bueno, me alivia saber que no paso a tener mayores consecuencias.
Hace tiempos que deje de sentir temblores, me aterrorizan de todas maneras.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


In Spanish...

bueno, me alivia saber que no paso a tener mayores consecuencias.
Hace tiempos que deje de sentir temblores, me aterrorizan de todas maneras.
I prefer earthquakes than Tornadoes they scare me to death.The only reason that I was angry was that we didn`t stay to practice for model UN.
Yo Gro! Looks ill-annoyed to me!
Looks like everything is winding down...

I'll be back tomorrow morning to check up on the threat in my neck of the woods.

At least this pollen will get washed away.....

good night, stay safe everyone
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Yo Gro! Looks ill-annoyed to me!


O, Hi O. Brian.
Quoting Grothar:


O, Hi O. Brian.
Gro happy to see you :D
Quoting Grothar:


O, Hi O. Brian.



If there are loud thunderstorms all night south of the O-Hi-O river people might be ken-tuckered out ;)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN PA...NRN MD...NRN DE...ERN PANHANDLE
OF WV.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...

VALID 110311Z - 110445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND BAND OF TSTMS NOW
MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MTNS OF S-CENTRAL PA. PRIND ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WEAKENING TREND...AND NO FURTHER WWS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...MCS THAT EARLIER PRODUCED SVR WIND MEASUREMENTS AND
SOME WIND-DAMAGE REPORTS OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING INTO NJ...UPON ENCOUNTERING
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE MARINE LAYER AND OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER TSTMS. THAT ACTIVITY...IN TURN...HAS LEFT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS DE/MD...WNWWD BETWEEN HGR-MRB...INTERSECTING
OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING SRN PA TSTM BAND INVOF CBE. LATTER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHILE MOVING INTO RELATIVELY
STABLE/LOW-THETAE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZING S-CENTRAL/SERN PA. WHILE
A FEW STG TO MRGLLY DAMAGING GUSTS STILL ARE POSSIBLE...PRIND
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF
DISCUSSION AREA FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND OUTFLOW
AIR. NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION STILL IS POSSIBLE VERY NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MD AND DE...HOWEVER SVR THREAT
APPEARS TOO DISORGANIZED/MRGL FOR ADDITIONAL WW...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD
OF INCREASING MLCINH...AND MLCAPE ALREADY LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND
DECREASING.

..EDWARDS.. 04/11/2013
It looks like a big threat for tornadoes and severe weather tomorrow.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I get a lot of warning on cells that weaken before they get me, or on cells that are just south or just north of me.

My house has some sort of curse on not getting severe weather.

15years, 3 damaging wind events, 1 1.75 in hail event and a couple quarter sized hail events.

While everywhere around me gets much more.


Dont sound like a curse...sounds more like mercy...
Quoting allancalderini:
Gro happy to see you :D


Oye, Allen. Como te va?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



If there are loud thunderstorms all night south of the O-Hi-O river people might be ken-tuckered out ;)


Long time no see. Hawaii???
Guys...84 of you are listed in my long chart... a month old poll

TWC/WSI, CSU and TSR are included but not counted towards the total count
Quoting Civicane49:


Thanks Civi. I want just going to post that.
Quoting Grothar:


Oye, Allen. Como te va?
Super y a usted :D
Oh wow, this is out of the Hazelwood, MO area.


Good night everyone.
A strange pattern for severe weather. This thing is spread from "The Gulfstream waters to the New York Islands.


Pretty good a little tired and you? A hot day here 96 in Baltimore Inner Harbor today.


I think the Baltimore inner harbor station records temps too high but it was really hot today.
Freezing rain warning for
City of Toronto continued

Significant freezing rain on the way.

Periodic light rain is affecting the area this evening, but a more wintery change is on the way. Colder air will arrive later tonight and coincide with an approaching low currently over Missouri. A messy mix of ice pellets and freezing rain is expected to develop late tonight or Thursday morning in the warned regions and continue throughout Thursday and much of Thursday night. It may very well fall heavy at times and be accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder.

Poor travel conditions are expected over the duration of this event. In particular, the Thursday morning commute may be challenging with icy conditions on untreated roads, especially for areas near and west of the Greater Toronto area to Lake Huron. And it may be even more problematic for the evening rush hour. Of greater concern is the risk of widespread power outages from downed tree limbs and power lines due to significant ice accumulation combined with northeast winds gusting to 60 km/h. There is a risk that this could be a major ice storm for an appreciable swath of Southern Ontario. Freezing rain amounts up to 10 mm are quite possible in many areas with some regions possibly exceeding 20 mm.

It should taper off by Friday morning with temperatures rising above freezing.

There is still some uncertainty as to the extent of the cold air. This will have an impact on how much falls as ice pellets versus freezing rain. Freezing rain will have a higher impact with power outages and slippery roads and sidewalks. Although a few centimetres of ice pellets is possible, it is more of a nuisance for travel rather than a serious hazard.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Pretty good a little tired and you? A hot day here 96 in Baltimore Inner Harbor today.


I think the Baltimore inner harbor station records temps too high but it was really hot today.


A lot tired. Busy day. These storms really packed a wallop today.
They sure did Gro. I haven't seen a report of any deaths yet for which I am thankful.
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like a big threat for tornadoes and severe weather tomorrow.

The Mets here are watching carefully. A couple changes can make a big difference.
Quoting Grothar:
A strange pattern for severe weather. This thing is spread from "The Gulfstream waters to the New York Islands.


there is alot stranger yet to come
KEEPEROFTHEGATE is freezing rain unusual in Toronto in mid April?
Quoting allancalderini:
Super y a usted :D


Tu puedes decir, tu! No soy tan viejo.

Looks like big storms tomorrow too.


TORCON from Dr. Forbes

AR all but northwest - 6
DC - 2
DE - 2
IL west-central - 3
IL east-central, south - 2 to 3
IL northeast - 2 or less
IN - 2
LA west - 2 to 3
MD - 2
MO east-central, south - 3
NJ - 2
OH - 2
OK extreme southeast - 2 or less
PA central, south - 2
TX east - 2 to 3
WV north - 2

2004 Analog PFFF! Nutin to see here, move along now.
Quoting hydrus:
The Mets here are watching carefully. A couple changes can make a big difference.


Better or worse?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
2004 Analog PFFF! Nutin to see here, move along now.


Another strange face.
Boom Boom's seem to be heading a lil northish from the projected flow.

Quoting Grothar:


Another strange face.


You know, I say that every morning when I wake up. :-b
Quoting Grothar:


Tu puedes decir, tu! No soy tan viejo.

Looks like big storms tomorrow too.
lol lo siento es que cuando hablo con alguien mayor suelo referirme a usted pero voy a tratar.pues en Honduras soportando calor y alguna gente que tiene miedo que vuelva a temblar.
Quoting Grothar:


A lot tired. Busy day. These storms really packed a wallop today.


No worries Grothar, we'll all be back around sooner or later. Good to see you, how's Lauderdale treating you?
Quoting Grothar:


Better or worse?


Good Evening Sensei...
Quoting allancalderini:
lol lo siento es que cuando hablo con alguien mayor suelo referirme a usted pero voy a tratar.pues en Honduras soportando calor y alguna gente que tiene miedo que vuelva a temblar.


Did you feel anything?

(Tiemblo todo el tiempo, asi que no se si habia un terremoto. LOL) sorry, no accents.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
KEEPEROFTHEGATE is freezing rain unusual in Toronto in mid April?


no not really we get to see winter precip in a normal year till april 15 been a long time since we have see a normal year
the precip is not the problem the forecast is

strange to have so much forecasted 10 to 20 mm of frz rain with maybe 2 to 4 cm of ice pellets some of which could be the size of small ice cubes thats what there sayin even thunder into the mix

so weird to say the least for the amount and the way its forecsted to come

if i see it it will be first time i've ever experience something like it could be interesting for sure

hopefully we get nothing
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good Evening Sensei...


Good Evening, Grasshopper.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
No worries Grothar, we'll all be back around sooner or later. Good to see you, how's Lauderdale treating you?


Great weather so far. Almost perfect winter. It is really very, very dry though. I heard it was the same by you.
Quoting Grothar:


Did you feel anything?

(Tiemblo todo el tiempo, asi que no se si habia un terremoto. LOL) sorry, no accents.


Oh, cmon. I used an umlaut in a comment on Dr. Rood's just now.
KEEPEROFTHEGATE freezing rain is nothing good. I also hope you get none.
Quoting Grothar:


Great weather so far. Almost perfect winter. It is really very, very dry though.


We had a good soaking last week but that's it for the past couple months, very dry indeed.
speaking of earthquakes

has anyone heard anything as to why this area has been having shakers for the last week


Quoting Speeky:


Yeah, however most torndoes and even some thunderstorms can be more dangerous than a Category 2 - 3 hurricane.



lol do some a additional research before making crazy comments, alright? Thanks...
Gnite everyone...

Vicky is having some problems
Quoting Grothar:


Did you feel anything?

(Tiemblo todo el tiempo, asi que no se si habia un terremoto. LOL) sorry, no accents.
Yeah I feel it not a big deal actually,y no te preocupes yo tambien tiemblo cuando hablo en publico.

Quoting Jedkins01:


lol do some a additional research before making crazy comments, alright? Thanks...
While definitely not the most well-phrased statement, he's not completely off base either. Microburst winds can easily reach 150 mph, and some tornadoes do carry winds at or exceeding the category of hurricanes he mentioned. The damage with hurricanes, however, are obviously much more widespread and regional.
Hey Keeper,
Remember you were making a joke about melon sized hail? So, we recently started getting this weird perfectly round hail. Strangest thing I ever saw. Here
I posted a video of the weird hail.

weird hail
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Oh, cmon. I used an umlaut in a comment on Dr. Rood's just now.


I'm too lazy to switch keyboard languages. I always admired someone who knows the proper usage of of umlaut, but why didn't you use the "ß" in the word dass?
Quoting Grothar:


I'm too lazy to switch keyboard languages. I always admired someone who knows the proper usage of of umlaut, but why didn't you use the "ß" in the word dass?


I don't know how to make one :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol do some a additional research before making crazy comments, alright? Thanks...

There's nothing crazy about his comment. Category 2/3 runs from 100-125 mph. That's the equivalent of an EF1/EF2 tornado.

EDIT: I see the above comment, nevermind.
Quoting KoritheMan:

While definitely not the most well-phrased statement, he's not completely off base either. Microburst winds can easily reach 150 mph, and some tornadoes do carry winds at or exceeding the category of hurricanes he mentioned. The damage with hurricanes, however, are obviously much more widespread and regional.



I understand where he is coming from too, I guess my geekyness inside my gets annoyed when people compare mesocale weather to the weather systems that produce them lol.

A hurricane is a large scale low pressure system that is a parent low to convective systems and tornadoes. It would be just as weird to compare a frontal system to the severe weather they can produce and say which one is worse, it doesn't make sense.


I'm not angry with anyone, its just that comparing tornadoes and microbursts to an organized low pressure system doesn't work out too well.


At any rate, I think tornado winds are particularly destructive especially given their brief duration though. This is because tornadoes induce updraft winds or what people know to be as their "suction."

You'll notice that tornadoes do their most damage as they are just passing as the updraft flows into the tornado. The destructive updraft winds in a tornado are particularly interesting to me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's nothing crazy about his comment. Category 2/3 runs from 100-125 mph. That's the equivalent of an EF1/EF2 tornado.


Read my additional explanation :)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN
MS/SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KY/TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

VALID 110408Z - 110545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES UNTIL 08Z FROM EXTREME EASTERN
AR/MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN MS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN...AND
SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WIND DAMAGE/A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POTION OF
TORNADO WATCH 94...VERY NEAR/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE MS RIVER INTO
NORTHWEST MS/FAR WESTERN TN AS OF 0345Z. BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL
IN A MODEST BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER/LOW
LEVEL SHEAR INCLUDING 300-350 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH AS PER WSR-88D VWP
DATA FROM MEMPHIS/PADUCAH WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED
BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES...WITH SOME CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND AND/OR A TORNADO.

FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION HAS GENERALLY
WANED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AT LEAST SOUTH OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR MODE ONGOING
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL/WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
PRIOR OUTFLOW/SLOW MOVING WSW-ENE FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING A RECENT
50 KT GUST AT RANTOUL IL. NONETHELESS...LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY
INCREASED SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING /50 KT AROUND 1 KM PER REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWP DATA/ SUCH THAT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED WITH ANY SEMI-SUSTAINED LINEAR STRUCTURES
PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..GUYER.. 04/11/2013
Well, Time to Bail, Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Keep Your Weather Radios ON.....
Quoting PedleyCA:
Hey Keeper,
Remember you were making a joke about melon sized hail? So, we recently started getting this weird perfectly round hail. Strangest thing I ever saw. Here
I posted a video of the weird hail.

weird hail


lottery hail
wild card bailout
targets mostly low and low middleincome into chasing dreams while the state gets rich

how many people live in cal and if they all spend 5 dollar to win big only ones winning big are those running it


37,253,956 @ 5.00 = $186,269,780.00
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Jedkins may I propose a compromise?

165 mph gust.


You just had to go there didn't you? :)

lol

Now with things like this, we are getting into the weird of weather! However, even such weird meso vortices are frequent occurrences in hurricane eyewalls. In fact, there is a lot of research to suggest that very localized pockets of much more violent winds can be present in a hurricane eyewall than what the max sustained winds are at. Such meso spinups are more common with stronger hurricanes as one would imagine.

It's fun to discuss the weird of weather, there's always the weird "landcane" of Oklahoma as well which I'm sure many are familiar with here.
I still think the highest severe threat will be a bit further north than predicted for tomorrow, time will tell though. Northern Gergia and northern Alabama into southeast TN I think are the greatest threat zones in my opinion.
Of course I had to go there. I love freaky weather like that!
Natti, Natti everyone.


Cyclone Imelda:

Good morning 49!

Good evening Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning 49!

Good evening Aussie!


Evening/Morning indianrivguy.

I live in Hawaii, where it is still evening time.
good morning folks!......................
Local mets last night said..that front(low)..coming across the country will bump into the High sitting over florida and ride up along it into the north,we here in florida will only get some of a much weaker front type rains..we'll see IF the rough stuff stays away from us huh...meanwhile its looking good for our old fashioned afternoon thunderstorms..
7-day for Tampa Bay Area..............
Good Morning everyone. or evening...

It has rained and rained behind this cold front all night. Second flood advisory in as many weeks. Thankful for the rain but can live without the cold. lol. 46 is just wrong! :)

Statement as of 3:30 AM CDT on April 11, 2013

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued an * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor
drainage areas in...
east central Hardin County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Jasper County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Kirbyville... Evadale... Buna...
north central Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the city of Beaumont...
southern Newton County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Newton... Deweyville... call... Bon
Weir...
northwestern Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Vidor... Mauriceville...

* until 730 am CDT

* at 328 am CDT 1 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the past
several hours from around Beaumont to Kirbyville to Newton and
additional thunderstorms are expected. Some of the storms are
capable of producing heavy rainfall and an additional 1 to 3 inches
will be possible through early morning.

601. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !! Looks like an interesting day ahead!









Stay Safe Folks!!
so tornadoes in or not in lines are possible.
They dont sound as excited as yesterday however.
We shall see 5-30-15 (5-30-5 at my house)


iIf this mesolow develops it would enhance the tornado threat in N GA and AL


Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today and thru the weekend but anything like a big rain event is expected.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST THU APR 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS TO DOMINATE SURFACE TO 700 MB INTO NEXT
WEEK TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AT 500 MB AND ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
JET TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AT 1.61 INCHES ON 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND GFS
INSISTED SFC-700 MB MOISTURE WAS ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. HOWEVER
TPW-MIMIC SHOWED A FINGER OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST
AND HAVING ALREADY REACHED USVI BY THU/01Z. HAVE KEPT RELATIVELY
DRY FORECAST ALMOST AS IT IS IN CURRENT GRIDS. BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE FROM MAYAGUEZ THROUGH WESTERN
PR MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THERE
WILL BE PATCHES OF MOISTURE DEEPER THAN 850 MB PASSING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT WITHOUT A CLEAR TROUGH TO FOCUS ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL MAYBE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 11/17Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 11/18Z THROUGH 11/22Z OVER
TJMZ...IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WAVES AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS. WAVES TO REMAIN IN 4-6 FT
RANGE AND WINDS UNDER 20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 20 30 30 30
Yesterday thick clouds of pollen came out of the pine forests around augusta national....yuck...
Ratz.....I gotta go out and work in this today. I may be home early.
well this is strange

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

- nws peachtree city.....

usually they activate them.
607. MahFL
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like a big threat for tornadoes and severe weather tomorrow.



The tornado risk is only 5%, it's not really a big risk.









storms tracking from E alabama NE could get into GA
609. MahFL
Quoting wxchaser97:
Oh wow, this is out of the Hazelwood, MO area.


Good night everyone.


Well, they should have "tree trimmed"......
THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.


LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH MID
60S DEWPOINTS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT DEMOPOLIS AND MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS TODAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. WHAT IS ALSO CONCERNING BASED ON THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING ARE THE INSTABILITIES THAT ARE BEING PRESENTED
BY THE HI-RES MODELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NSSL
WRF...WHICH I HAVE SEEN PERFORM FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW SEVERE
EVENTS IN TERMS OF REALIZING INSTABILITY AMOUNTS...IS ADVERTISING
1500-2000 J/KG OF MU CAPE
AFTER 21Z GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. OUR LOCAL 9KM WRF IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION.


THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE ENTERING
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ROUGHLY FROM 9AM TO 12PM BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS. THINGS THEN BECOME TRICKY IN TERMS OF TIMING
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE MODES OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER TO OUR WEST...THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.
IN
ADDITION...HI-RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
. IF THIS SOLUTION DOES IN
FACT VERIFY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT INCREASED SHEAR PROFILES...AND
WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE...SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE IN THE CARDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE
. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS...TO
CALERA...TO ANNISTON LINE.

THE SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 65
CORRIDOR IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. OF COURSE...THIS TIMING COULD
CHANGE BASED ON IF A STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE SQUALL
LINE FARTHER EAST AT A FASTER CLIP. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY QLCS MESOVORTEX THAT DEVELOPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE AS IT RACES EASTWARD.
Good morning. Significant solar flare last night centered around sunspot 1619, it reached M6.5, not far from X class territory.



Several statements/advisories have been issued by the Space Weather Prediction Center.

Link

1719 remains in an excellent position for more Earth directed solar flares, and 1718 and 1721 bear watching as well.



Proton levels have taken off:

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A much cooler morning this morning, 46 degrees, it was 71 yesterday at this time. And along with that drop some good storms. We've had almost an inch and a half of rain since midnight so far. No recess for the kids today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgium waffles, fruit in syrup, whipped cream, oatmeal with brown sugar, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy.
the SPC has moved the slight risk into my area now and put us in the tornado risk as well..we werent supposed to see anything until friday-two days of possible storms





day 2
Hopefully the spring breakers stay safe




like 1/2 my friends are down there.
A cluster of potentially tornadic supercells may pass from NW to SE around rush hour in atlanta

It is really coming down here. Thirty minutes ago we'd had 1.43 inches of rain since midnight. Now it's at 1.63 inches. A bulletin just took over the tv to say Vernon Parish has had one to four inches of rain and up to three more inches possible. Flood advisories are being given.
Well one good thing is that with the late spring,not all the trees hae many or large leaves...so that might alleviate tree falls, however pine trees will still fall all over the place as they usually do.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It is really coming down here. Thirty minutes ago we'd had 1.43 inches of rain since midnight. Now it's at 1.63 inches. A bulletin just took over the tv to say Vernon Parish has had one to four inches of rain and up to three more inches possible. Flood advisories are being given.


Morning. :) It's been coming down here pretty steady since the front passed. Been under an areal flood warning since about 330. Orange has gotten 2.35 inches in the last couple of hours. Still raining.
SWEWAT indexes near 350 in SC....some of the supercells over there could be tornadic.

Here it should be partly cloudy till noon, then a wave of showers, and then partly cloudy again before the afternoon mess.
GA

ALL MODELS ALSO
PICKING UP ON DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND WITH
SURFACE WINDS BACKING SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL BE ENHANCED AS WELL.

LOW-LEVEL HELICITY FROM THE BACKED WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THESE MORE DISCRETE CELLS TO
HAVE A TORNADO THREAT IF A GOOD UPDRAFT CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF WITHIN
ANY OF THE STORMS. THIS THREAT WOULD CONTINUE EVEN IF THESE STORMS
ARE OVERTAKEN WITH THE LINE. SPC CONTINUES HIGH-END SLIGHT RISK WITH
30 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND PROBS AND 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBS...THIS IS
RIGHT IN LINE WITH OUR THINKING AS WELL. HOWEVER...JUST TO PUT IT
OUT THERE...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STP VALUES
BETWEEN 2.5-3
MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT.

.THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS
LOTS OF PROBLEMS WITH YELLOW /POLLEN-FILLED...YUCK/ STANDING AND
PONDING WATER
IN URBAN AREAS.
Good morning everyone

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Morning. :) It's been coming down here pretty steady since the front passed. Been under an areal flood warning since about 330. Orange has gotten 2.35 inches in the last couple of hours. Still raining.


You guys flood as easily as we do. Be careful on your way to work. I'll have several areas to 'weave' through on my way.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


You guys flood as easily as we do. Be careful on your way to work. I'll have several areas to 'weave' through on my way.


You be careful too. Looking at the radar looks like this may start slacking off some here but moving your way.
Everyone have a great Thursday! Aussie, have a great Friday! I'm off to dodge the rain drops...
hmmmmm...maybe I should've looked at the big picture. Might not stop raining here for a while. :) I know they are grateful for the rain to my west (around Houston) Everybody in the severe areas take care today.

Spann says 0 - 1km shear is quite strong and some models showing CAPE up to 2000-3000 CAPE across SE AL and West GA....

could spell trouble

starts east of i 65 and south of i 20 and moves NE into GA
Hey you know, pollen is an effective cloud condensation nuclei....just another thing in favor of storms getting going.

Pollen count today doubled again to 8024.
Yesterday was 4061 the day before 2000.
Just last sunday it was 5.

With the rain however, we shouldnt pass 10000 like we did last year.

Trees:

Elm, Cedar, Oak, Birch, Ash, Sweetgum, Mulberry, Pine, Sycamore, Willow, Beech


Weeds:
Sheep Sorrel/Dock

was a pine pollen haze out yesterday.
Fantastic looking map if you live in FL. Forecast is for seabreeze thunderstorms everyday now. Almost looks to be the start of the rainy season.


These GULF sst's have soared some 8 degrees over the last 10 days.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS.



THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...A LITTLE
OVER 20 KNOTS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DISTINCT VEERING. SURFACE
WINDS MAY EVEN BECOME BACKED SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FORECAST DUE TO
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF
THE STORMS LATE TODAY EXHIBITING WEAK ROTATION
. MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL NOT BE THAT COOL THOUGH AND DO NOT SEE A DISTINCT IMPULSE
ALOFT...SO WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH.

LAZ030-031-041-042-073-074-111245-
BEAUREGARD LA-ALLEN LA-CALCASIEU LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
WEST CAMERON LA-EAST CAMERON LA-
654 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...CALCASIEU...
JEFFERSON DAVIS AND CAMERON PARISHES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 652 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
REEVES...GRANT AND CAMERON BY 700 AM...
LEBLEU SETTLEMENT BY 710 AM...
SWEET LAKE...HOLMWOOD...HARMONY AND BULLER BY 715 AM...
HARMONY AND HACKETTS CORNER BY 720 AM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see 20 to 25 named systems if this keeps up. Cold PDO has been basically destroyed out across the C Pacific and the MDR is the warmest I've seen since 2005. US could be in for some serious trouble this year. CSU is giving 48% odds of a major strike on FL this year and 73% for a major strike along the eastern US.


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY...WITH HIGHEST STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO RESIDE EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUTDOOR BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE
LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF AND INLAND WATERWAYS TODAY.
THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS INTO THE 3 TO 5
FOOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS...AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IF VENTURING INTO THE GULF TODAY.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I wouldn't be surprised if we see 20 to 25 named systems if this keeps up. Cold PDO has been basically destroyed out across the C Pacific and the MDR is the warmest I've seen since 2005. US could be in for some serious trouble this year. CSU is giving 48% odds of a major strike on FL this year and 73% for a major strike along the eastern US.


2010 had the warmest MDR temperature anomalies on record from February through at least May.

Clinton, AR tornado damage:



Definitely at least a high-end EF2.
638. SLU
Quoting LargoFl:
Local mets last night said..that front(low)..coming across the country will bump into the High sitting over florida and ride up along it into the north,we here in florida will only get some of a much weaker front type rains..we'll see IF the rough stuff stays away from us huh...meanwhile its looking good for our old fashioned afternoon thunderstorms..


Interesting, because the NWS in Ruskin is saying that pretty much all severe parameters will exist in Central Florida the next few days, except shear, therefore they note we still have a chance of severe weather despite that the Tampa Bay area is not included in the SPC outlook.

Instability will be very high across the region, but with little shear anything severe will be hard to predict and the tornado threat is not an issue, which is probably why the SPC doesn't extend a slight risk further south, any severe will not be in an organized MCS but rather from a diurnal random development situation. Even though they don't, don't be surprised to see some warnings the next few days similar to how things are in the summer.

As for my area, in Tallahassee, we'll see, I'm not sold on anything more than some good solid thunderstorms with a couple becoming severe here and there.

I noticed the SPC has backed off on aggression of severe weather for today just a tad, probably for the same reasons I'm doubting it. Although when I say doubt I don't mean doubt of severe altogether, I mean doubt of a major outbreak.
Quoting SLU:


The PDO is a tad cooler than last week and the Tropical Atlantic continues warmer than average. Caribbean is also a tad warmer.
641. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The PDO is a tad cooler than last week and the Tropical Atlantic continues warmer than average. Caribbean is also a tad warmer.


Not to mention the neutral ENSO and the well established Atlantic Tripole.

Recipe for disaster.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2010 had the warmest MDR temperature anomalies on record from February through at least May.



El-Nino was present though. It's a different scenario this year as the pattern in 2010 favored all recurves this year will be different hence the 73% odds along the eastern US. 73% is very high!
Good Morning. Another day of severe weather on tap for many parts of the US. Very impressive frontal boundry this morning from the deep south all the way to the NE. Here is the am position of the jet stream.

Link
US National Weather Service Lake Charles Louisiana
Liked · 2 minutes ago

Updated Cold Front location along with the Radar... We are seeing much cooler temperatures behind the front. The front has also stalled a bit and is moving a bit slower than was previously forecasted.



@BoydHuppert Boyd Huppert
Near Fulda, Minn.
I thought Dr. Forbes was a little conservative yesterday with his numbers..lets see if today plays out the same

Thursday, April 11

Scattered severe thunderstorms along and just ahead of a cold front and along a stationary
front in southwest PA, central and south OH, central and south IN, KY, TN, east and south MS,
AL, southeast LA, north, central, and southwest GA, FL panhandle, southwest NC, northwest SC.

TOR:CON Details-

AL east - 4
AL west - 2 to 3
FL panhandle - 2 to 3
GA north, central - 4
GA southwest - 2 to 3
IN central, south - 2 to 3
KY - 2 to 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MS east, south - 2 to 3
NC southwest - 2 to 3
OH central, south - 3
PA southwest- 2 to 3
SC northwest - 2 to 3
TN (except extreme west) - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less
Thursday night, April 11-12
Scattered severe thunderstorms in southeast OH, WV, southwest VA, west and south NC, SC, GA,
FL panhandle, east KY, east TN. TORCON - 2 to 3 these areas.
Friday, April 12
Isolated severe thunderstorms in southeast VA, southeast MD, south DE, east half NC, east half SC, southeast GA, north and central FL. TORCON - 3 southeast VA, east NC; 2 or less elsewhere above
From WeatherBell

March 30, 2013

A wild season is on the way, and the "major hit drought" on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2010 had the warmest MDR temperature anomalies on record from February through at least May.



And had one heck of a CV season to go with it.
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Lovely, just lovely, well hopefully Dale is wrong, including Tampa Bay in a hurricane concern zone for this year is pretty risky given this area's tendency to dodge them.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
From WeatherBell

March 30, 2013

A wild season is on the way, and the "major hit drought" on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.



We have to take it one storm at a time as trajectories unfold this season. We have been very lucky the past several years in the US with three very active seasons behind us and no "major" hurricane strikes (although several devastating tropical storms). No one can assume multiple major hits on the East Coast this far in advance; the US coast is overdue for a major but I think that the last multiple-major season for the US was in 2005.

Someone on here please correct me if I am wrong on this date (2005) but the point is that it does not happen than often. It "could" this season but just as good of a coin flip that it might not.
6Z cold at 384HR
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


We have to take it one storm at a time as trajectories unfold this season. We have been very lucky the past several years in the US with three very active seasons behind us and no "major" hurricane strikes (although several devastating tropical storms). No one can assume multiple major hits on the East Coast this far in advance; the US coast is overdue for a major but I think that the last multiple-major season for the US was in 2005.

Someone on here please correct me if I am wrong on this date (2005) but the point is that it does not happen than often. It "could" this season but just as good of a coin flip that it might not.


2005 was that last major to hit the US. Wilma infact was the last one.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
From WeatherBell

March 30, 2013

A wild season is on the way, and the "major hit drought" on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.



multiple major hurricane landfalls???
Joe Bastardi said this? lol

not buying it.
East Pacific Hurricane season may start early i know it is 270+ HR but



I was in the eye of Wilma, Frances and Jeanne!:)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


2005 was that last major to hit the US. Wilma infact was the last one.

50 days, 11 hours until Hurricane season 2013!!!!:)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


multiple major hurricane landfalls???
Joe Bastardi said this? lol

not buying it.


Yep and Dr. Gray.
Wow, we went from a blown forecast to another blown forecast in less than 24 hrs in SE TX. First it was going to be rains possibly 1-2 inches to now we're not going to see that and we'll be lucky if we get half an inch in isolated places and for a while it was looking that way early last night. Then local weather guy last night said latest run now showing a disturbance coming in from the west and changed and upped the chance of rain overnight into morning as widespread rains fell dumping 1-2 inches along the coast.

Rains, good rains
Not much rains
uh oh now it's going to rain
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
From WeatherBell

March 30, 2013

A wild season is on the way, and the "major hit drought" on the US coast should end. In fact, multiple major hits are likely this year with the cold PDO, warm AMO decadal signal favoring the East Coast, as in the 1950s.



well I personally dont like these forecasts favoring the east coast..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


2005 was that last major to hit the US. Wilma infact was the last one.



As we all know, that was an extraordinary year with a record number of Cape Verde storm clusters and an unfavorable A-B ridge sending a good portion of them our way. It's going to boil down to the same potential type of pattern setting up this year along the same lines. We will know about this possibility (multiple strikes) once we get into the peak of the season and see where the a-b high sets up as the clusters begin moving into the mid-Atlantic heading towards the Antilles.
Quoting ncstorm:


well I personally dont like these forecasts favoring the east coast..


yeah, same here.

If storms take a path like Irene, you may get them stronger than me up in NYC...Im sorry to say that.
Lightning and thundering all night, I was thinking wth is going on, this was not supposed to be happening. But glad it did, received over an inch but don't know total yet till I get home.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah, same here.

Is storms take a path like Irene, you may get them stronger than me up in NYC...Im sorry to say that.


its going to depend on what pattern is in place..right now everyone is in play..one storm at a time is my motto..
Quoting ncstorm:


its going to depend on what pattern is in place..right now everyone is in play..one storm at a time is my motto..


that's how it is...should be (?)
2 rounds for GA
I still wouldnt be surprised to see a 10% tornado risk added like it was yesterday

STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS /INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION/...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WITH A
RISK FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE...TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT STORM REGIME WITH A GROWING THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS/BOWS SPREADING ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS /
AND PERHAPS
SRN VA/ THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS WITH THE SUBSEQUENT PASSAGE OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL QLCS.


STP


sunny here

hurricane season 2005 prediction

hurricane season 2013 prediction

the position and strengh of the B/A in the summer will determine the tracks of the storms this season. if the set up is like the 2004 and 2005 seasons then woe to the residents of the lesser Antilles the greater Caribbean .the gomex florida and the se usa
672. VR46L
Precip Sat Imagery

GeorgiaStormz, do you think The Masters will be affected on Friday? or will it pass by Friday morning?
I love this!:)
675. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


well I personally dont like these forecasts favoring the east coast..


I wouldn't Worry more than usual Joe always bigs up the east coast threat ... I think its about population in that area ... Its business IMO but I am Cynical.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I love this!:)


LOL..whats with the teddy bear on the beach?
From today!:)
Quoting VR46L:


I wouldn't Worry more than usual Joe always bigs up the east coast threat ... I think its about population in that area ... Its business IMO but I am Cynical.


ha..good ole Joe!
You do not remember that??
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..whats with the teddy bear on the beach?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I love this!:)


I never even got to see this, because when you're in the cross-hairs there is too much going on and not sitting down chillin watching the TV. Miss the pre-action as the storm is approaching VS watching others in the cross-hairs.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
You do not remember that??


Nah..first time seeing that...
Go to this lol Hurricane Ike Bear Costume
Link
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..whats with the teddy bear on the beach?
Yesterday at all three airports it was at or above 90 degrees.R.N.A hit 91 and so did the other two airports.

I didn't mention it yesterday but I'm glad the doc took my suggestion of having Michael as the hurricane pic besides raggity Sandy for once in like forever and who's to say he doesn't read our comments :)?.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Go to this lol Hurricane Ike Bear Costume
Link


well that made my morning..thanks SFL..hilarious!!
Temps have shot up 5F along with dewpoints at my house, still sunny

the dry pocket in N Ga is going away and CAPE should start building

Quoting RitaEvac:
Wow, we went from a blown forecast to another blown forecast in less than 24 hrs in SE TX. First it was going to be rains possibly 1-2 inches to now we're not going to see that and we'll be lucky if we get half an inch in isolated places and for a while it was looking that way early last night. Then local weather guy last night said latest run now showing a disturbance coming in from the west and changed and upped the chance of rain overnight into morning as widespread rains fell dumping 1-2 inches along the coast.

Rains, good rains
Not much rains
uh oh now it's going to rain

Enjoy it, here in College Station, we ended up with a whopping .17 inches. Also, you're busted forecasts aren't alone. The isentropic lift and other factors with this system has thrown off forecasters all across the country.
SOI Values for April 11

17.59
30 Days avg SOI
6.59
Note: 30 days avg are showing neutral ENSO. today values shows a trend to La Nina, but one value doesnt represent nothing
Link


Ouch AL/GA/SC 8pm



model nearly maxing out dbz
The retired 2012 names should be announced at any time today or tomorrow...
Last year on April 13, Irene was announced in retirement.
G'morning, All; lots of dangerous weather out there today, but I got this gem (good for a chuckle) from my boss in Atlanta just now: Her mother-in-law started her car this morning and thought it caught fire --- but it was just the insane pollen!

(Back to work now.... :-)
MIMIC shows the gulf moisture moving north into U.S.


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:42 AM EDT Thursday 11 April 2013
Condition: Ice Pellets
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 6 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 30.7°F
Dewpoint: 24.6°F
Humidity: 73 %
Wind: NE 8 mph
Wind Chill: 23
Quoting hydrus:
MIMIC shows the gulf moisture moving north into U.S.

Yup, definitely a pretty good moisture tap out in front of our storm system.



696. SLU
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The retired 2012 names should be announced at any time today or tomorrow...
Last year on April 13, Irene was announced in retirement.


How about replacing ISAAC with IAN and SANDY with SARAH?
Quoting SLU:


How about replacing ISAAC with IAN and SANDY with SARAH?


2010 Igor replaced with Ian for 2016
699. SLU
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ian was taken by Ike


oops
Quoting SLU:


oops


I edited my comment... It was taken by Igor... sorry
Ike took Isaias
701. SLU
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ian was taken by Igor in 2010


It was actually IGOR that was replaced with IAN if I remember well
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..whats with the teddy bear on the beach?


I decided to go into roleplay for a day.

Quoting SLU:


How about replacing ISAAC with IAN and SANDY with SARAH?


Can't, they replaced Igor with Ian.

Isaiah and Sarah would be my two choices. If I had to choose two other choices, Ira and Sinead would also be good.

Quoting SLU:


It was actually IGOR that was replaced with IAN if I remember well


yes..excuse my screwed comment..it's re-worded

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND 1 TO 3 PM... APPROACHING THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM...AND EXITING EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 9 AND 11
PM. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ANY DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SQUALL LINE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS AREA
BEACHES.
folks REALLY pay attention to your Warnings today......
708. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I decided to go into roleplay for a day.



Can't, they replaced Igor with Ian.

Isaiah and Sarah would be my two choices.


Not bad but Ike was replaced with Isaias which might be a bit too close to Isaiah for comfort.
Mostly sunny outside and warming fast....feels like you could get a good tan
Quoting SLU:


How about replacing ISAAC with IAN and SANDY with SARAH?


SARAH was not one of the names suggested by NHC, they suggested Sara, Sheri or Susan.

Item #5
Quoting SLU:


Not bad but Ike was replaced with Isaias which might be a bit too close to Isaiah for comfort.


Yea, I just realized that - edited my post to include two other choices.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


SARAH was not one of the names suggested by NHC, they suggested Sara, Sheri or Susan.

Item #5


I forgot that the NHC gives suggestions. I think Susan would be my pick.
Potential new I names for hurricanes to consider...

Isabella
Iggy
Ila
Ima
Imelda
Irina
Irma
Irvin
Iza
Ives
Ivy
Io


*I like Iza
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
Apr. 11, 2013 - 12:45 UTC
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Potential new I names for hurricanes to consider...

Isabella
Iggy
Ila
Ima
Imelda
Irina
Irma
Irvin
Iza
Ives
Ivy



I'm personally a fan of Ignatius.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Potential new I names for hurricanes to consider...

Isabella
Iggy
Ila
Ima
Imelda
Irina
Irma
Irvin
Iza
Ives
Ivy


Iggy..lol..I remember thinking Hugo was a goofy name for a hurricane...it wasnt so goofy afterwards i tell ya..
2003 ISABEL ---> 2009 IDA
2004 IVAN ---> 2010 IGOR
2008 IKE ---> 2014 ISAIAS
2010 IGOR ---> 2016 IAN
2011 IRENE ---> 2017 IRMA
2012 ISAAC ---> 2018 ????
Quoting hydrus:
Iggy..lol..I remember thinking Hugo was a goofy name for a hurricane...it wasnt so goofy afterwards i tell ya..


Yeah..I was thinking about such goofy name when i was tying it
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Potential new I names for hurricanes to consider...

Isabella
Iggy
Ila
Ima
Imelda
Irina
Irma
Irvin
Iza
Ives
Ivy


*I like Iza


No no no, not iggy.....we already have enough iggy going on in hurricane season on this blog.
Sandy for sure Isaac..Skeptical...

I'll be surprised if two storms are retired this year.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Potential new I names for hurricanes to consider...

Isabella
Iggy
Ila
Ima
Imelda
Irina
Irma
Irvin
Iza
Ives
Ivy


*I like Iza

Irvin is the one I'd go for.
Remember Isaac is a Guy name. just FYI. theyd choose a guy name to replace it.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm personally a fan of Ignatius.
How about Imogene and Ianthe....those will instill fear lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sandy for sure Isaac..Skeptical...

I'll surprised if two storms are retired this year.

Isaac was a 2 billion dollar storm... It destroyed a lot of parishes in SE Louisiana. It will be retired. It hit a bruised area that's been hit 2x before, in the last 7 years. (Katrina and Gustav)
Quoting hydrus:
How about Imogene and Ianthe....those will instill fear lol
That's if people can even pronounce them first.Their will be so many bloopers with the name.
Ohhh. I forgot to include Io

I'll add it there
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yeah..I was thinking about such goofy name when i was tying it
The two absolute worst I have ever seen is Fifi, which killed thousands in Central America in 74, and Typhoon Longwang in the Western Pacific..terrible monikers for such killer entities.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Isaac was a 2 billion dollar storm... It destroyed a lot of parishes in SE Louisiana. It will be retired. It hit a bruised area that's been hit 2x before, in the last 7 years. (Katrina and Gustav)


Would think if NHC was going to recommend retirement of Isaac they would have included it with the Sandy request for retirement.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Isaac was a 2 billion dollar storm... It destroyed a lot of parishes in SE Louisiana. It will be retired. It hit a bruised area that's been hit 2x before, in the last 7 years. (Katrina and Gustav)
Isaac should be retired..just me harmless opine..:)
Quoting RitaEvac Re: Post#706 :




For comparison Rita here is the 12 week animation..

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Isaac was a 2 billion dollar storm... It destroyed a lot of parishes in SE Louisiana. It will be retired. It hit a bruised area that's been hit 2x before, in the last 7 years. (Katrina and Gustav)
The reason why I said I'll be surprised is because they have gotten conservative on retirement of storms.

Look at Fay Dolly Hanna for example from 2008.They were not retired despite causing such a ruckus.
lla = should provide some interesting attempts at pronunciation.
732. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


For comparison Rita here is the 12 week animation..



Thats quite an improvement unless my eyes are playing tricks
Quoting washingtonian115:
The reason why I said I'll be surprised is because they have gotten conservative on retirement of storms.

Look at Fay Dolly Hanna for example from 2008.They were not retired despite causing such a ruckus.

But still they Retired 3 Destructive Category 4's that year.
Do you guys remember Hannah, a hurricane in 2008 that made a loop north of Haiti and then up the US east coast?

That storm killed over 535 people, 530 in Haiti, over $160 million ('08$) and it was not retired

Sandy No Doubt will be retired. Im very positive that Isaac will go along with her as well.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Do you guys remember Hannah, a hurricane in 2008 that made a loop north of Haiti and then up the US east coast?

That storm killed over 535 people, 530 in Haiti, over $160 million ('08$) and it was not retired


Haiti didn't request Retirement, and that's where most of Hanna's Damage took place. Haiti has other problems than requesting "Retirement" of a storm name.
RAP high 80-85 across SE( in 4-6 hours)....that would give us plenty of extra CAPE


Quoting fireflymom:
lla = should provide some interesting attempts at pronunciation.
EEEEEEE--LLAAAAA....he he
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Haiti didn't request Retirement, and that's where most of Hanna's Damage took place. Haiti has other problems than requesting "Retirement" of a storm name.


they could have, the quake hit in 2010.

But I know what you mean.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Do you guys remember Hannah, a hurricane in 2008 that made a loop north of Haiti and then up the US east coast?

That storm killed over 535 people, 530 in Haiti, over $160 million ('08$) and it was not retired


It was forecasted to hit the Carolinas as a Major Hurricane before Gustav, that was making landfall at the time, bombed out and started shearing Hanna with his outflow, which caused Hanna to do that loop-d-loop.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

But still they Retired 3 Destructive Category 4's that year.
Of course they were going to retire Gustav and Ike as they killed over 100 people and were some of Hait's and Cuba's (Ike was at the time second costliest hurricane for the U.S now pushed to third and Cuba's most expensive hurricane).I'm not sure if Paloma has held any record in terms of damage.
I would laugh if Iggy get's picked for one season, and becoming a destructive cat 5
yeah..goofy storm
Quoting VR46L:


Thats quite an improvement unless my eyes are playing tricks


Yes a good improvement to me too VR46L..
Now if it just continues..
Thats alot of territory..
I hope the land gets good nurturing prcip this year..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Of course they were going to retire Gustav and Ike as they killed over 100 people and were some of Hait's and Cuba's (Ike was at the time second costliest hurricane for the U.S now pushed to third and Cuba's most expensive hurricane).I'm not sure if Paloma has held any record in terms of damage.

Paloma was somewhat of a Head-Scratcher for me at first. But I wasn't going to ask questions.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Paloma was somewhat of a Head-Scratcher for me at first. But I wasn't going to ask questions.


yeah..Paloma went from a cat 4 down to almost nothing over Cuba.

I can't recall what happened to her
Quoting washingtonian115:
The reason why I said I'll be surprised is because they have gotten conservative on retirement of storms.

Look at Fay Dolly Hanna for example from 2008.They were not retired despite causing such a ruckus.


Fay and Dolly only caused half the damage Isaac did. There's never been a storm that I'm aware of that has caused more than 2 billion dollars in damages and not be retired.
747. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Yes a good improvement to me too VR46L..
Now if it just continues..
Thats alot of territory..
I hope the land gets good nurturing prcip this year..


Yeah , this weeks rains should also help a bit .. sure hope it continues . drought can turn round in a matter of months
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Fay and Dolly only caused half the damage Isaac did. There's never been a storm that I'm aware of that has caused more than 2 billion dollars in damages and not be retired.
But the damage for Fay was still impressive considering it was only a tropical storm.Not to mention the record rains it brought.
Speaking of head-scratchers, here's a couple of storms that didn't get retired that I would retire over many that actually have (and Isaac).

Hurricane Juan (1985), the most costly hurricane in a season that also featured Elena and Gloria
Hurricane Gordon (1994), which killed over a thousand people in Haiti.
Ask your local Greenhouse Gas Effect Believer why it's not the "Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect" where the relative masses of each molecule contribute directly and measurably to total energy contained in a gas volume, where everything's accounted for.
Ask them to explain to you how the entire history of the optical astronomy photography field is mesmerized by the ever rising distortion due to heat in the atmosphere over the lifetime of the field.
Optical Astronomy.
The guys who helped Einstein check on that "relativity" thing when they measured how much a beam of starlight was deflected by the gravity of masses the light passed, on it's way here to earth. Yeah, those guys. That optical astronomy field and it's associated photography and computerized mirror flexing assemblies in place since the '80s. Strangely not one guy notices any more need to build extra flex into the mirror manipulating assemblies. Not one prof or student goes and gets the photos of the night sky over the last 25, 50, 100 years, showing ever more average atmospheric turbulence as required by the laws of energy on gas: hotter gas = more motion.

"Any good scientist ought to be a skeptic," Freeman Dyson. No, not the guy with the vacuums...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah..Paloma went from a cat 4 down to almost nothing over Cuba.

I can't recall what happened to her
Paloma was actually strong when hitting Cuba....WIKI..The hurricane brought with it a 14 foot (4 meter) storm surge which moved the coastline inland by almost a mile (about 1.5 km) in Santa Cruz del Sur, doing extensive damage.

In Santa Cruz del Sur where Paloma came ashore, 435 homes were torn to shreds. The sea swept more than a mile inland. The wind and waves left wooden houses in splinters, topped with seaweed. Two of the two-story concrete walls of a factory crumbled into piles of rubble, smashing 57 wooden fishing boats stored inside for safekeeping. An estimated 328 hectares of crops were destroyed by the storm, most of which were in the process of recovery following Hurricane Ike. A total of 8,000 homes in Santa Cruz were damaged and another 670 in Camaguey and Las Tunas. About 7,000 farmers and 4,700 residences were isolated by floodwaters. Overall damages in Cuba totaled to $300 million. The government has reported no Paloma-related deaths, but a dissident group has informed that one person died in the storm.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Fay and Dolly only caused half the damage Isaac did. There's never been a storm that I'm aware of that has caused more than 2 billion dollars in damages and not be retired.

But there is
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Speaking of head-scratchers, here's a couple of storms that didn't get retired that I would retire over many that actually have (and Isaac).

Hurricane Juan (1985), the most costly hurricane in a season that also featured Elena and Gloria
Hurricane Gordon (1994), which killed over a thousand people in Haiti.
Definitely should have been retired. I had the pleasure of experiencing both by the way.
A Home Destroyed by Hurricane Paloma in Cayman Brac
Date 14 November 2008
Good Morning All..
Rain's a coming today along with some boomers..










Heading to Sun N Fun in the morning. Hopefully it'll be better weather than 2011.

Check out about 1:00 into this video. I missed it, Didn't get there until Saturday.

Edit: Sorry wrong link.

Try this: Caution for language

Link
strong shear/land interaction killed Paloma
Quoting 1900hurricane:

But there is


That damage total includes indirect losses. The actual damage from Juan was around 1-1.5 billion.
759. MahFL
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Would think if NHC was going to recommend retirement of Isaac they would have included it with the Sandy request for retirement.


I don't think the NHC requests retirements, it has to come from the State Department or something, doesent it ?
Insane April 11th Winter Storm Walda live mobile video feed from central MN:
Live mobile wx chaser video
761. MahFL
Quoting hydrus:
Definitely should have been retired. I had the pleasure of experiencing both by the way.


The country affected has to request retirement, I think Haitii was a bit pre-occupied.
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Rain's a coming today along with some boomers..










Hey Pcola
Tornado watches issued west of you...

I would not be surprised if you get one of those, or sever thunderstorm alerts, check the forecast...
take care
Round 2 coming through. Front looks like it may be picking up some speed finally.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
strong shear/land interaction killed Paloma


What storm was it that dissipated as it hit a very dry South Texas? I would like to look up that loop. Tia.
I guess we'll see today or tomorrow which storm gets retired.But don't be surprised to only see one.
725 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Ohhh. I forgot to include Io

NHC should also fuhgeddaboudit. It's bad enough that TWC used astronomical names such as Saturn
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


What storm was it that dissipated as it hit a very dry South Texas? I would like to look up that loop. Tia.


crappy Don 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

LOL
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


What storm was it that dissipated as it hit a very dry South Texas? I would like to look up that loop. Tia.
Don. It was actually in 2011.
MODELS INDICATE THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH...NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. WHEN
THE SW MOVES THROUGH...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL HELICITY
AND BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A DEVELOPING QLCS LINE.

THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...DO THINK ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS/TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITHIN A QLCS
LINE.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Potential new I names for hurricanes to consider...

Isabella
Iggy
Ila
Ima
Imelda
Irina
Irma
Irvin
Iza
Ives
Ivy
Io


*I like Iza


I'm going for Isabella.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


crappy Don 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

LOL

That about defined the Texas Drought that year. Not even a tropical cyclone could do anything alleviate it, and another tropical cyclone later that year (Lee) even made things worse with his backside flow. That's right when a bunch of fires broke out, including the infamous Bastrop Fire.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


crappy Don 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

LOL


Sure was a powerful storm...Katia didnt have nothin on it.

Not.
Does anyone thinks it's gonna get bad around Mobile,Al or mainly the out skirts toward the north of Mobile?


sheri
I can't get the WU Brownsville archived radar loop for 7/29/2011 to work. Is it working for anyone else? Tia.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

That about defined the Texas Drought that year. Not even a tropical cyclone could do anything alleviate it, and another tropical cyclone later that year (Lee) even made things worse with his backside flow. That's right when a bunch of fires broke out, including the infamous Bastrop Fire.


Even Debby challenged the EURO last year...but no no
It took moist Florida instead
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


crappy Don 2011

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT
AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO
CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A RAINFALL THREAT.

LOL


Link

I did find that blog entry though. I will look through it for the loop.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Does anyone thinks it's gonna get bad around Mobile,Al or mainly the out skirts toward the north of Mobile?


sheri


yes..I was talking with Pcola about this, he lives in Pcola. East of you. lol
Some severe weather possible there this afternoon
stay on top of updates!
TRMM pass of IMELDA..

3 STP now

On this day.... 4/11/1965: 17 F4 tornadoes in Palm Sunday Outbreak. 260 killed, 1 of deadliest on record.



Courtesy of @USTornadoes
560 Grothar: (Tiemblo todo el tiempo, asi que no se si habia un terremoto. LOL) sorry, no accents.

Sure sounded foreign to me.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes..I was talking with Pcola about this, he lives in Pcola. East of you. lol
Some severe weather possible there this afternoon
stay on top of updates!



thank you for letting me know. I will be watching.


sheri
Little off there NAM.





Better than earlier at least...
Chilton County 9-1-1 ‏@chiltonco911
We have been notified that Chilton County Schools are dismissing at Noon. #alwx @spann @wsfa12news @myfoxal
Ooh talking about Paloma I know a good amount about that I was in it lol
Aerials: Storm devastates Hazelwood neighborhood

Video
This is the kind of storm I want..excluding damages

As I recall, the atmospheric conditions over Texas in September 2011 were so bad that it actually caused TS Lee to become subtropical. That's pretty insane.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
This is the kind of storm I want..excluding damages



Yeah right over me right lol
@ashleygervais
Aberdeen, SD

Nate Johnson @nsj

The name "Sandy" has been retired from the list of Atlantic tropical systems, replaced with Sara for the 2018 list.

Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 34s
#Sandy has now been officially retired as a Tropical Cyclone name by @NHC_Atlantic
Quoting AussieStorm:
Nate Johnson %u200F@nsj

The name %u201CSandy%u201D has been retired from the list of Atlantic tropical systems, replaced with Sara for the 2018 list.



as expected
797. flsky
Love this image!

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
This is the kind of storm I want..excluding damages

Hurricane Allen..We had some wind in the keys. A gust to 90 mph on the Tortugas.

.RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION OVER SERN MS. HERE...INFLUX OF MT AIR...A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS AND INFLUENCE FROM VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT MORE ROBUST DISCRETE STORMS.

A surface low has formed near New Iberia, LA. This is a worrisome feature, as it will tend to enhance the low level shear to the southeast of it as it moves northeast. It should be in West Central Alabama by late afternoon.

It%u2019s already becoming windier over eastern Mississippi. Winds are gusting to 22 at Columbus and 21 mph at Meridian.

The wavy front is over western Mississippi from about east of Jackson to east of Brookhaven. Temperatures drop about 20 degrees behind the front. It is now 68F at Jackson and 48F in Greeville.
All this reminiscing got me to thinking of 1988's monster that devoured Jamaica: Gilbert.

Took a track rather similar to that of your storm-of-choice, trHUrrIXC5MMX (#789).
How about Isaac?

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 41s
Sandy has officially been retired as a possible name for any future tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah..Paloma went from a cat 4 down to almost nothing over Cuba.

I can't recall what happened to her
I understand what you meant now. She did fall apart quickly.
803. VR46L
Since 2007 Dean and Felix no category 5 hurricanes,5 years

Nino 3.4 is cooling again after the warmup it had in the past two weeks.

Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 45s
#Sandy is the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic basin named storm lists since 1954.
Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane 58s
#Sandy is the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic basin named storm lists since 1954.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Since 2007 Dean and Felix no category 5 hurricanes,5 years, the interesting thing of this is, that years the hurricane season was below average

Would help to support the theory that there will be fewer but stronger storms in the future..Makes sense to me.
Edited..posted already
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Pcola
Tornado watches issued west of you...

I would not be surprised if you get one of those, or sever thunderstorm alerts, check the forecast...
take care


Thanks for the heads up Max..
Was having some computer problems this am..
I think I've got it cleared up now..
Quoting stormchaser19:
Since 2007 Dean and Felix no category 5 hurricanes,5 years, the interesting thing of this is, that year the hurricane season was below average

Igor was a cat 5 in our hearts.
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for the heads up Max..
Was having some computer problems this am..
I think I've got it cleared up now..


Ohh, ok

Stay up to date with the weather especially today.
Your computer better not play funny on such critical day for you today
I just saw that the SPC was upgraded at 847 am..the map was adjusted more to the east..great..



Quoting Gearsts:
It sure looked like a 5...
NASAHurricane %u200F@NASAHurricane 6m
SO. INDIAN OCEAN *Full Update* NASA Satellite Image Sees Cyclone Victoria Looking like a %u201CJ%u201D from Space

Sioux Falls, SD
i guss Isaac lives on for other year in 2018
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
How about Isaac?

AccuWeather.com %u200F@breakingweather 41s
Sandy has officially been retired as a possible name for any future tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.

Isaac has not been retired. According to Brad Panovich


soundigs look good for a bow echo
If Isaac is retired, it'll be the 8th retiree of the 'I' name since 2000. The others were Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, Igor and Irene.

If it goes on like this, there won't be many 'I' names left. It'll be 'Imhotep' and 'Icarus' before long.
Quoting ncstorm:
Edited..posted already

Yeah, everyone was a bit slower than me with the news about Sandy being retired.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ohh, ok

Stay up to date with the weather especially today.
Your computer better not play funny on such critical day for you today


Actually I have another computer just sitting in my closet..
I need to give it to someone who needs it..
Sprinkles of rain now..
With sun shining..Lol..
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, everyone was a bit slower than me with the news about Sandy being retired.


I didnt post about Sandy..it was about the Mesoscale Discussion..
Yay I'm (Isaac) not retired.
NOAA
Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names




Isaac is still there...somewhat crappy storm it was anyway but expensive
Houston-based Impact Weather has forcasted 20/9/4 for 2013.
It does seem everyone is predicting a severe season.

I can't believe people are wondering why Issac isn't retired when all he did was knock down a few trees and tipped over some trash cans.
folks IF you live north of Florida..look out...there is TONS of humidty and water laden clouds streaming northward..whew..man its like dead summer humidity all streaming northward off the gulf...stay safe folks,alot of rain heading your way.
still a SLGT

THE TORNADO RISK IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND HINGES
ON MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.
Issac was anooying as conditions were great for intensification but it just couldn't fully get his act together.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NOAA
Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names




Isaac is still there...somewhat crappy storm it was anyway but expensive


US$2.9bil 34 dead and 5 countries effected.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe people are wondering why Issac isn't retired when all he did was knock down a few trees and tipped over some trash cans.


well Scott, it was good blogging with you here at WU..you know you bout to catch it right?..LOL
well for me, the Name doesnt matter, its what a particular storm does damage wise thats important..who listens to a name anyway? lol..20 feet of storm surge and winds over 100 mph..that..is what people listen to.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe people are wondering why Issac isn't retired when all he did was knock down a few trees and tipped over some trash cans.


Caused flooding in Plaquemines Parish where even Katrina didn't flood. Just a few trees and trash cans... hmmmm
gee LOOK at the NE tomorrow..maybe a Huge Ice Storm?
Quoting ncstorm:


well Scott, it was good blogging with you here at WU..you know you bout to catch it right?..LOL


Why is Issac a sore subject for some. I know it was for me as I was frustrated in tracking Issac.
sandy is gone replaced with sara

here is an archive image of sandy at cat 3 major status

SevereStudios‏@severestudios2 min
Tornado Warning for Kemper and Neshoba County in MS until 12:30pm CDT. #mswx

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1131 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
KEMPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1131 AM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR HERBERT SPRINGS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERTY BY 1140 AM CDT...
BLUFF SPRINGS BY 1145 AM CDT...
DE KALB BY 1150 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3258 8879 3258 8899 3293 8879 3293 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 213DEG 42KT 3262 8888

$$

CME
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Why is Issac a sore subject for some. I know it was for me as I was frustrated in tracking Issac.


probably because it was a Florida and Louisiana storm which are the majority of bloggers here and the fact that some people lost their lives from the storm..

*I was just kidding with you though mainly because of the Florida and Louisiana connection..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Why is Issac a sore subject for some. I know it was for me as I was frustrated in tracking Issac.

Don't let the frustration cloud your judgement. Isaac caused US$2.9Bil. Caused the deaths of 34 people and affected 5 countries.
that cell has a couplet...






Quoting LargoFl:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1131 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
KEMPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1131 AM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR HERBERT SPRINGS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LIBERTY BY 1140 AM CDT...
BLUFF SPRINGS BY 1145 AM CDT...
DE KALB BY 1150 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3258 8879 3258 8899 3293 8879 3293 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 213DEG 42KT 3262 8888

$$

CME
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Issac was anooying as conditions where great for intensification but it just couldn't fully get his act together.


While Isaac didn't go to plan it still was a learning experience with how he tracked and strengthened.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't believe people are wondering why Issac isn't retired when all he did was knock down a few trees and tipped over some trash cans.

Well Isaac did cause over 2 billion dollars in damage and over 30 deaths so he could've been retired. The surge in some areas was really bad. I'm glad that Isaac wasn't retired since Isaac is my name and I like having my name on the naming list.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Why is Issac a sore subject for some. I know it was for me as I was frustrated in tracking Issac.

Yeah, I got bashed BIG TIME after Isaac made landfall because I made a comment just saying that it didn't compare to major hurricanes like Ivan, Katrina, or Rita and that it was being overhyped.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Don't let the frustration cloud your judgement. Isaac caused US$2.9Bil. Caused the deaths of 34 people and affected 5 countries.


I am sorry I didn't realize that many people lost their lives. I was just trying to make a funny. Wasn't serious. I was however frustrated with Issac as condition were ideal for a cat 3 or higher.
SevereStudios‏@severestudios52 s
DE KALB, MS, and areas just WEST of there along Hwys 16 & 397, should take cover now! (11:42am)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I am sorry I didn't realize that many people lost their lives. I was just trying to make a funny. Wasn't serious. I was however frustrated with Issac as condition were ideal for a cat 3 or higher.
Yeah, we all tracked it and got frustrated that he didn't become stronger. But if he had of, South Florida would of had worse than what they had as a stronger system would of pushed more northerly.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Yeah, I got bashed BIG TIME after Isaac made landfall because I was just saying that it didn't compare to major hurricanes like Ivan, Katrina, or Rita and that it was being overhyped.


Conditions were ideal but just wouldn't intensify. I was a struggle for Issac just to get to cat 1 strength. Sandy on the other hand I feel was a strong cat.3 at landfall in Cuba.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I am sorry I didn't realize that many people lost their lives. I was just trying to make a funny. Wasn't serious. I was however frustrated with Issac as condition were ideal for a cat 3 or higher.

After he made landfall in Cuba he was never able to fully rebuild his core. If Isaac had a good core then he would've been able to take advantage of the good conditions in the gulf.
smaller 5%

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Issac was anooying as conditions were great for intensification but it just couldn't fully get his act together.

He couldn't get stronger probably means that conditions weren't great at all.
Damaging tornado CONFIRMED just southwest of DE KALB, MS at 11:44am, moving northeast at 50mph.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Conditions were ideal but just wouldn't intensify. I was a struggle for Issac just to get to cat 1 strength. Sandy on the other hand I feel was a strong cat.3 at landfall in Cuba.

Yeah, it seemed like it's core had marbles stuck in it or something, and I thought it was almost a joke when it was a tropical storm nearing landfall when they had been predicting a cat 2 or even more.

And just to clarify for everyone's sake, I am not in any way minimizing any death and destruction wrought by this storm, my earlier point was just to say that Isaac's devastation wasn't on the same level as Katrina and such...
SevereStudios‏@severestudios1 min
Damaging tornado CONFIRMED just southwest of DE KALB, MS at 11:44am, moving northeast at 50mph.
Wow, I was one letter off in my guess for retirement name. I said "Sarah" would be a good name, they picked "Sara."
Quoting Gearsts:
He couldn't get stronger probably means that conditions weren't great at all.
Levi32 was all over that storm..He could answer anything about its history.
A significant tornado is in progress just northeast of Philadelphia, MS.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nino 3.4 is cooling again after the warmup it had in the past two weeks.



This is what the CFS was thinking would happen, however we need to have a consistent change for us to really see how this will play out.
GFS predicting negative NAO phase for the upcoming weeks




AT 1151 AM CDT... A DAMAGING TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS TORNADO COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... RURAL NORTHERN KEMPER COUNTY AT 1210 PM CDT

potentially a debris signature as well per nws chat.
maybe a donut hole





velocities are getting violent

James Spann %uF8FF %u200F@spann 1m
Confirmed touchdown from Sheriff Moore in Kemper County near Kemper County Coal plant #mswx
Expand
James Spann %uF8FF %u200F@spann 1m
Large TDS (tornado debris signature) now on radar WNW of DeKalb, MS. People in the path of the tornado in northern Kemper County need to be in shelter now! #mswx
James Spann %uF8FF %u200F@spann 1m
Tornado emergency for northern Kemper County, MS. Tornado warning being issued for Noxubee County now #mswx


Injuries being reported now in Kemper County, MS...
Debris from this tornado is being thrown over 10,000 feet in the air. This is probably of equal magnitude, if not stronger, than the tornado that hit Clinton, AR yesterday evening. And I believe that tornado -- based on pictures -- was a high-end EF3.
From NEFla-

The atmosphere, is tight. It feels saturated, like it's wet, and stretching. Something out there feels like it's gonna pop.
watch 95 extended




and watch 96

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Debris from this tornado is being thrown over 10,000 feet in the air. This is probably of equal magnitude, if not stronger, than the tornado that hit Clinton, AR yesterday evening. And I believe that tornado -- based on pictures -- was a high-end EF3.


storm track direction and cell shape reminds me of adairsville tornado...could be a wedge type ef 3

James Spann %uF8FF %u200F@spann 1m
Damage with possible injuries reported along highway 493 northwest of Liberty, MS #mswx


wunderground velocities are getting maxed out on 2 radar stations columbus/brandon-jackson
Look at that doughnut hole!

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF THE
TORNADO...

AT 1203 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS AND TRAINED SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A
LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at that doughnut hole!



i thought i saw one on WU radar....wish i had granalyst.

I wonder how long it will last.
Join ESA Friday, 12 April, at 10:00 CEST for an 800 km-high tour with spectacular images from Earth-observing satellites..

Link for tomorrows broadcast Click HERE
Confirmed injuries in that large tornado. WTOK is comparing it to the Hattiesburg tornado in terms of structure. I'm guessing this may be an EF-3 or EF-4 tornado.
TORNADO WARNING
LAC103-105-111730-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0027.130411T1707Z-130411T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
MADISONVILLE...OR 14 MILES WEST OF MANDEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ABITA
SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8997 3037 8983 3033 9006 3036 9010
3036 9013 3038 9020 3034 9026 3029 9029
3029 9035 3037 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 244DEG 34KT 3036 9029

$$
7/ARM
warning N of new orleans

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Confirmed injuries in that large tornado. WTOK is comparing it to the Hattiesburg tornado in terms of structure.



it is VERY similiar...its direction of motion is similar to adairsville as well, going NE in a non hail environment ahead of a a line.
Rotation continues to get even more violent. I don't like judging the intensity of a tornado based solely on radar data...but given the NWS has used the word "violent", the altitude at which it is throwing up debris, and the fact that storm chasers are confirming it to be intense, I'm going to say it's an EF3 or EF4.

Goodnight all. Stay safe over there. Stay alert.
Shuqualak is about to get a direct hit by a massive tornado.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rotation continues to get even more violent. I don't like judging the intensity of a tornado based solely on radar data...but given the NWS has used the word "violent", the altitude at which it is throwing up debris, and the fact that storm chasers are confirming it to be intense, I'm going to say it's an EF3 or EF4.



I wonder if NROT will increase

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Shuqualak is about to get a direct hit by a massive tornado.


and Macon MS...this track could get quite long.
WTOK-TV ‏@Newscenter11 56s

Power out in DeKalb


NWS Jackson MS %u200F@NWSJacksonMS 4m
Tornado emergency heading toward Shuqualak in Noxubee County and this tornado has caused injuries. If you are in the path take cover now!

wonder if any chasers are on it.

maybe rain wrapped

45k tops and 70 dbz





the hattiesburg cell had large hail on a less than favorable day. this may be similiar
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Heading to Sun N Fun in the morning. Hopefully it'll be better weather than 2011.

Check out about 1:00 into this video. I missed it, Didn't get there until Saturday.

Edit: Sorry wrong link.

Try this: Caution for language

Link



I remember those violent thunderstorms, the same super cell embedded in the squall line/derecho that moved through Lakeland at the Sun N Fun also cut across the Tampa Bay area and an F1 tornado tracked within a quarter to half mile of my house. I did however record wind gusts maxing at 84 mph and rainfall of 3.40 inches in 45 minutes! There were tree branches down all over my area, and some power poles were snapped as well, I lost power obviously for a few hours. That was a very intense thunderstorm, a lot of violent CG lightning that day as well.
The same thunderstorm cell that hit me and Lakeland produced a confirmed 105 mph microburst at Indian Rocks beach.
There were at least 10 tornadoes just within the Tampa Bay area which is a high tornado density event with widespread hail and severe wind gusts across the area that day. I ended up getting 9.7 inches of rain too from the slow moving squall line.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rotation continues to get even more violent. I don't like judging the intensity of a tornado based solely on radar data...but given the NWS has used the word "violent", the altitude at which it is throwing up debris, and the fact that storm chasers are confirming it to be intense, I'm going to say it's an EF3 or EF4.



I agree, extremely dangerous situation...
SPC just added their tornado report

1638 4 NW LIBERTY KEMPER MS 3270 8881 DAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 493 NORTHWEST OF LIBERTY (JAN)
The dew point is around 70 here in TLH with a very low cloud base in these fast moving cumulus. Hopefully we won't see any significant shear later. The boundary layer certainly is favorable for tornadoes given the above.

SevereStudios‏@severestudios1 min
Tornado EMERGENCY for MACON, MS. Large, violent, extremely dangerous tornado. In Macon by 12:20 pm CDT
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NOAA
Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names




Isaac is still there...somewhat crappy storm it was anyway but expensive
Looks like the female names take up about 58%-60% of the names over the male names. Now that they have a least one representative storm name (retired) for each letter, they should dedicate 1 year and name the storms for that year from the names of the retired list. Example:

Andrew
Betsy
Camile
David,
etc.

And see which ones of the retired names would live up to being retired again! It would be like the "best of the best" or like "the Night of Champions" or something. They should do it every 25 years!

EarthThreats ‏@earththreats 1m

#Tornado EMERGENCY for Macon, MS!! Seek IMMEDIATE shelter! pic.twitter.com/DUePi3gpTA - @TornadoTitans
Quoting stormchaser19:
GFS predicting negative NAO phase for the upcoming weeks




rotation weakened, either storm is weakening or cycling, we shall see.

merging into a line as well. just like adairsville.

if the tornado winds down fast enough the 2000 people in macon MS may have been spared a direct hit (literally passed right over them as rotation weakened)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Shuqualak is about to get a direct hit by a massive tornado.


According to the 2000 Census there are 562 souls living in Shuqualak
SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...

DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELL HAS FORMED IN E CENTRAL MS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WRN AL AROUND THE TIME THE STORM
MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY TO ITS W.
SOME SURFACE HEATING IN A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
STORMS IN THE LINE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CIRCULATIONS
WITHIN THE LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

MSC103-111800-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-130411T1800Z/
NOXUBEE MS-
1219 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
NOXUBEE COUNTY...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF THE
TORNADO...

AT 1219 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS AND TRAINED SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A
LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF MACON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MACON BY 1225 PM CDT...
PRAIRIE POINT AND DEERBROOK BY 1235 PM CDT...
BIGBEE VALLEY BY 1245 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION! SEEK
UNDERGROUND SHELTER OR SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY STRUCTURE. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3316 8832 3299 8852 3300 8863 3328 8854
3329 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 216DEG 39KT 3304 8854

$$

CME
The environment this tornado developed in is okay, but not what you would expect to produce a violent tornado. Wind shear is 50-60 knots, CAPE is 1500 j/kg, and LCL heights are <750...that's all good and all, but SRH values are only ~100 m2/s2, EHI is less than 2, and the significant tornado parameters are marginal.

Makes you wonder what it will be like in southern Alabama later when the LLJ kicks in and we get discrete cells.
STP 4 SE LA and S MS

Quoting AussieStorm:
NORTH KOREAN MISSILE TEST DELAYED BY WINDOWS 8
It should work with Windows 7 (Korean Edition), but they should test it out first! LOL
Quoting hydrus:
Levi32 was all over that storm..He could answer anything about its history.

Yeah, he picked up on all the statements by the NHC about the dry air affecting it.
SevereStudios‏@severestudios1 min
Large tornado tracking through east side of Macon, MS right now. Prairie Point and Bigbee Valley next in the path. (12:27pm)
76F here 800j/kg cape...
rotation may be done cycling and might be coming back



Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l1 min
Tornado causes damage and injuries in Kemper County, MS -- @newcenter11


NWS Jackson MS‏@NWSJacksonMS21 min
Tornado emergency heading toward Shuqualak in Noxubee County and this tornado has caused injuries. If you are in the path take cover now!
Brett Wicker NMSCAS‏@NMSCAS2 min
Just heard from our Chasers Bryan and Dean near Macon, they are in heavy precipitation and are unable to see the tornado.
Update: #Tornado now just south of Macon, MS (Noxubee Co.) moving NNE. TAKE COVER on E side of Macon, Brooksville, Bigbee Valley areas.
Little cumulus building and showers everywhere across SE



seems macon got spared

James Spann  ‏@spann 2m
Trees and powerpoles snapped lot of trees down 6-7 miles S of Macon. #mswx
Scott McClellan ‏@alastormspotter 1m
Confirmed injuries in Noxubee County, MS. #mswx #tornado
seems macon got spared

James Spann  ‏@spann 2m
Trees and powerpoles snapped lot of trees down 6-7 miles S of Macon. #mswx

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1234 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEVILL LOCK AND DAM...OR 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PICKENSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF THE
TORNADO...

AT 1231 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS AND TRAINED SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A
LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR PRAIRIE POINT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BIGBEE VALLEY BY 1245 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION! SEEK
UNDERGROUND SHELTER OR SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY STRUCTURE. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A LONG TRACK DAMAGING TORNADO.
AT 1234 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEVILL LOCK AND DAM...OR 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PICKENSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PICKENSVILLE...REFORM...BEVILL LOCK AND DAM...ETHELSVILLE...
MEMPHIS...PINE GROVE...OWENS...MCSHAN...FOREST AND NORTH PICKENS
AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

SevereStudios‏@severestudios23 s
Confirmed long-track tornado still on the ground. BIGBEE VALLEY, MS as well as PICKENSVILLE and MACEDONIA, AL take cover! (12:38pm)

SevereStudios‏@severestudios3 min
Tornado Warning for Pickens County in AL until 1:30pm CDT. #alwx
this is a long track tornado...wow
any information on a tornado to the east of Brooksville Ms ?? radar show a vortex for a long period ..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
this is a long track tornado...wow
yes and news reports of damage with it..stay safe folks.
1638 cdt........ 4 NW LIBERTY KEMPER MS 3270 8881 DAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 493 NORTHWEST OF LIBERTY (JAN)
The tornado is still on the ground and doing damage; radar shows debris being tossed up again.

Hattiesburg, MS is under a tornado warning.
That tornado was just south of my kin & tree farm. Looks like it may go to Hattiesburg, MS or just north. They don't need another one..

1702 UNK 7 W WEST POINT CLAY MS 3361 8877 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AREA AROUND CEDAR BLUFF ALONG HWY 50 (JAN)
Hattiesburg under a tornado warning.

1 fatality confirmed from previous damage by current tornado.
Tornado sirens going crazy here in Hattiesburg.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Tornado sirens going crazy here in Hattiesburg.


Any sign of a wall cloud that you can see?
Tstorms starting to light up the SE..
Mississippi,Alabama,Arkansas,Louisiana,Tennessee, Kentucky,Georgia,Florida..



Tornado now heading into Alabama.
looks like several tornados in different area's.......HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1245 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED DAMAGING TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
BIGBEE VALLEY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A LONG TRACK DAMAGING TORNADO
WITH CONFIRMED INJURIES.

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE COVER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
935. VR46L
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hattiesburg under a tornado warning.

1 fatality confirmed from previous damage by current tornado.


Thanks for the info ... Very sad ... Its not a comment that I can plus ... as I dont like the info in it but appreciate it greatly
FOX 6 Alabama has a wallcloud live.
Link
Solid rotation with the storm headed into Hattiesburg.

Tornado appears to be cycling, funnel reforming and about to touch down.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Any sign of a wall cloud that you can see?


Nothing that I can see yet. That storm is still 10-15 miles from here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tornado appears to be cycling, funnel reforming and about to touch down.

Who's live streaming?

510
NWUS54 KJAN 111745
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1138 AM TORNADO 4 NW LIBERTY 32.70N 88.81W
04/11/2013 KEMPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** HEAVY DAMAGE ALONG HWY 493. STEEL
BUILDING DESTROYED. EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 1 FATALITY
AND 1 INJURY AT THAT LOCATION.
Live streaming...................
http://www.abc3340.com/
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who's live streaming?

Posted the link above.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who's live streaming?


Brett Adair

Very large wedge crossed right in front of him.
pcola stay safe tonight..especially 7-11 pm tonight..
Rotation is staying strong.

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...FAR NW FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111759Z - 111930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING LINE OF STORMS
ENTERING FAR SRN MS. WATCH ISSUANCE EXPECTED BY 19Z.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS HAS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A WARM...TROPICAL
AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. 16Z LIX SOUNDING REVEALS THE
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING HAS ERODED WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING
STRONG INSTABILITY. VAD PROFILES AT LIX AND MOB SHOW STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 ACROSS
COASTAL MS AND AL. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILES...AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE AND ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF IT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS CONFIRM A TORNADO WATCH IS NEEDED AND
ONE WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/11/2013


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
This is what the supercell looked like when passing over Liberty, AL

The little red tornado icon is where the fatality occurred

Link

The tornado hadn't been on the ground for an extended period of time when this picture was taken by a chaser near Shuqualak, MS:

reports of a fatality in Kemper Co, Ms
First report of a tornado was at 12:38pm Eastern


AT 105 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ETHELSVILLE...OR 12
MILES WEST OF REFORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
Nice wall cloud headed into Hattiesburg. Tornado could be rain wrapped
These cells aren't very far in front of the cold front and the abrupt dropoff of surface instability, but they're apparently far enough. As long as they stay in front of the cold front, they'll remain very dangerous.

Cell is becoming involved with the linear stuff behind it.

Velocities have weakened

There was a TDS in Macedonia not too long ago though.

(OLD image)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FOX 6 Alabama has a wallcloud live.
Link


Thanks for the link Cyber..
Never seen these guys before but they are good..
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., has issued a tornado watch for the Pine Belt until 3 p.m. today.

Strong to severe storms are possible from mid-morning to midday as storms move east ahead of a cold front.


The most intense storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, with hail the size of quarters.


Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and heavy downpours also are expected.

One to two inches of rainfall and some flash flooding is expected in parts of Mississippi.
Linear and velocities have significantly diminished

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchas er20079/diss.png

DEVELOPING: MT @BillKarins: Kemper County, MS EMA confirms1 fatality from tornado near Liberty. Count may rise.
from the great lakes down to the gulf..folks HEED your local warnings, some real bad storms this afternoon.
The tornado threat on the first cell seems to have diminished, becoming more of a washout.
Slidel sent up a 16Z sounding.

Quoting LargoFl:
pcola stay safe tonight..especially 7-11 pm tonight..


Thanks Max..Will do..
Gonna check batteries in the flourescent lights in a few..
We have plenty of back-up..
Probably will run the generator for a few just in case..
Gotta have power for mom..


























A large tornado confirmed by the National Weather Service has caused at least one fatality and injuries in two eastern Mississippi counties and is moving in Pickens County in Alabama.

The Emergency Manager in Kemper County has reported one fatality and one injury near Liberty, Miss., at a steel building that was destroyed in the storm around 11:38 a.m., according to the NWS in Jackson, Miss.

Heavy damage was also reported along Highway 493 in Kemper County and a tornado was spotted on the ground south of Macon in Noxubee County. An unknown number of injures and damage were reported near Shuqalak in Noxubee County by Noxubee 911, according to the NWS.

Kemper and Noxubee counties are located on the Alabama border.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham is tracking a tornado moving through Pickens County.
I can't assure you this is a valid image...you know how people are with tornado pictures...but apparently this is the tornado back in Mississippi:

Quoting aquak9:
From NEFla-

The atmosphere, is tight. It feels saturated, like it's wet, and stretching. Something out there feels like it's gonna pop.
Had that feeling yesterday here. Ended up w/ around 2", 1.5 from main line, and a big red oak branch in my yard. Fortunately, it fell from the side away from my house, my daughter's car and my boat.

Sullivan, MO recorded a 101 mph gust, many 50 - 60s. From KMOV video Aussie had, looks like Hazelwood damage was mainly straight line, but haven't given official word yet. Couple of houses in the Hill neighborhood lost roofs too. Just was there a month ago, great meal at Zia's as always. Haven't heard of any problems with any of those great Italian restaraunts, fortunately.

Currently mid 40s and cloudy here & StL, says Spfld 51, maybe their clouds are more broken, though couldn't see it on satellite.

Everyone S & E stay alert & safe!
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nice wall cloud headed into Hattiesburg. Tornado could be rain wrapped


Keep safe Mississippi..
Stuff moving fast..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The cooling in the MDR has stopped for now.

Quoting pcola57:


Keep safe Mississippi..
Stuff moving fast..
Yeah it is. Clouds a racing across the plateau...Storms are cruisin chief.
1638 4 NW LIBERTY KEMPER MS 3270 8881 *** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** HEAVY DAMAGE ALONG HWY 493. STEEL BUILDING DESTROYED. EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 1 FATALITY AND 1 INJURY AT THAT LOCATION. (JAN

The SPC report on the fatality today. Amazing that the threat areas are at a slight risk, and this is not an outbreak situation, but a few of the tornadoes that have touched down so far have been very strong ones.

All folks to the East of this line need to stay turned to their news outlets and NOAA radios as the line approaches them this evening and into the overnight hours.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1638 4 NW LIBERTY KEMPER MS 3270 8881 *** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** HEAVY DAMAGE ALONG HWY 493. STEEL BUILDING DESTROYED. EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 1 FATALITY AND 1 INJURY AT THAT LOCATION. (JAN

The SPC report on the fatality today. Amazing that the threat areas are at a slight risk, and this is not an outbreak situation, but a few of the tornadoes that have touched down so far have been very strong ones.

All folks to the East of this line need to stay turned to their news outlets and NOAA radios as the line approaches them this evening and into the overnight hours.


While that is a major event and to hear of a death is terrible, this has not been a major outbreak by any means yet, severe weather has definitely been only slight risk criteria. We'll see if that changes, I think the SPC is right for keeping it at slight risk though.
Yeah,we have seen severe weather in Hammond,la today.
Just started following Mr Masters a few years ago and I alway read everything he post! I find it to always be very Great to read and this man knows what he is talking about because I check on his forecast and they seem to be right on the money, if u will! So I would like to thank him personally for a great job and also I wld like to thank his whole team especially Ms Angela! Great job to everyone from the bottom of my heart! THANK YOU! Wad219! also thanks to the blogger base out out Fla! I can't think of his name now but he is the most amazing man for every detail I have ever seen on here! Thank you also! An keep up the great job, u have a very bright future ahead of you! So sorry I can't remember ur name, I'm in the very early stages of DMA! (demertia) Sorry!